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Alternate Reality MLB Mock Draft 2010: The Name Game
Same warning as last year before we go on…
Don’t freak out, this isn’t a “real” mock draft.
We did this last year, and we’re trying it again here in 2010 as a Friday feature leading up until the draft. Alternate Reality Mock Drafts. I’ve got some pretty fun ones planned this year, but we’ll kick things off with perhaps the most nonsensical version – the Name Game. Let’s pretend for a second that Bud Selig is utterly incompetent, out of touch, and flat out bad at his job. I know it’s a stretch, but try your best. Now let’s pretend that Bud’s latest executive decision was to announce that all big league clubs could only draft players with last names that share the first letter of the city in which they play. Got it? Good. Ignoring for a minute how utterly stupid and arbitrary such a decision would be, let’s see how this Alternate Reality Mock Draft would look if such rules were in place…
1.1 Washington Nationals: OF Austin Wilson – Harvard Westlake HS (California)
Missing out on Harper stings, but the Nationals do the best they can to recover by going with the high upside outfielder over an impressive field of righthanded pitching prospects. Wilson instead of Karsten Whitson, Brandon Workman, and Alex Wimmers is a gamble, but one that could give Washington close to 1-1 value if the stars align. I also like Wilson in this spot because it would present one of the most interesting signing decisions that I can remember. Does Wilson, the Stanford commit who seems like at least a 50/50 shot to wind up on campus next fall, stick to his academic guns in the face of the highest honor an amateur ballplayer can achieve? The pressure, prestige, attention, and cold hard cash that comes with going first overall would really test Wilson’s signability.
Last Year’s Pick: RHP Zack Wheeler
1.2 Pittsburgh Pirates: LHP James Paxton – Kentucky
Drew Pomeranz has emerged as a front runner for the Pirates pick in the real world, but I’ll change things up and go with my favorite 2010 lefthanded pitcher for the sake of updating his current playing status. I mean, Pomeranz has gotten plenty of digital ink spilled his way in recent days and I’m sure, nice guy that he is and all, he wouldn’t mind sharing the spotlight just this once with a fellow SEC lefty in need of some love. Paxton will pitch this season for the Grand Prairie AirHogs. His season begins May 14. His manager will be none other than former big leaguer Pete Incaviglia. I see no way that this ends in anything other than excellence for all involved.
Last Year’s Pick: LHP Matt Purke
1.3 Baltimore Orioles: RHP Cameron Bedrosian – East Coweta HS (Georgia)
Surprisingly slim pickings here, but Baltimore bypasses the alliterative choice in Bryce Brentz — why take the Markakis knock-off when you’ve got the real deal already? — to take a personal favorite of mine, Cameron Bedrosian. Kyle Blair, another favorite of mine, also received some thought here. Some insight into my thought process on this pick. First, I thought about Brentz, then I thought about Bedrosian, then back to Brentz, then Blair, and finally back to Bedrosian. All that thinking made me tired and cranky, so…that’s about all I’ve got for Baltimore. On the plus side, at least I didn’t make any snide remarks about Billy Rowell like I did last year. Progress!
Last Year’s Pick: 3B Bobby Borchering
1.4 Kansas City Royals: RHP Dan Klein – UCLA
Nary a first round lock in the K player pool, although the emergence of Klein at least gives the Royals a potential successor to Joakim Soria if/when they either trade him or move him to the rotation. In fact, and I promise I’m not just doing this for the sake of convenience, but Klein’s four-pitch mix (change, curve, slider) and low-90s fastball actually remind me a little bit of the erstwhile Royals closer. Soria’s curve is better than Klein’s, Klein’s change is better than Soria’s, but each player has done impressive things at the back end of the bullpen with the stuff more typical of a successful starting pitcher. Haven’t heard any talk of Klein moving to the rotation yet, but it’s something that wouldn’t surprise me as we get closer to the day of the draft.
Oh, and again I’m not saying this just to make the small but vocal Golden Gophers reading contingent happy, I strongly considered Mike Kvasnicka for this spot before settling on Klein.
No Pick Last Year
1.5 Cleveland Indians: 3B Zack Cox – Arkansas
More depth with the C’s than just about any other letter here in the top ten. I’m going off my own personal big board by jumping Cox over four, count ’em four, prep players I like more. With apologies to Nick Castellanos, AJ Cole, Dylan Covey, and Kaleb Cowart, Zack Cox just feels like the best fit based on what Cleveland has done in the past. I know I’m shuffling some players around here, but I like the thought of a LaPorta-Chisenhall-Cabrera-Cox infield.
No Pick Last Year
1.6 Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Stetson Allie – St. Edward HS (Ohio)
This pick was Robbie Aviles for a solid week in my head before I was reminded of the existence of Stetson Allie in conversation last night. In said conversation it was intimated to me that Allie’s commitment to North Carolina is a lot stronger than has been reported. I don’t typically pass along any sort of insider information like that because, well, I don’t typically have access to it (nor do I think anybody should listen to some dummy like me just because I like to pretend I’m some great big draft authority), but there you go. I’m putting ten bucks on Allie winding up in Chapel Hill, but, really, and I can’t stress this enough, what the heck do I know?
No Pick Last Year
1.7 New York Mets: RHP Jimmy Nelson – Alabama
Nelson is a fastball-slider pitcher with the modest upside of a generic big league middle reliever. For a team picking seventh overall, that would most certainly qualify as bad news. Good news for the Mets, however, comes in the form of the money saved with Nelson’s significantly underslot bonus. That’s important, you see, because (as I assume) Fred Wilpon will happily tell you, the Earth will fly right off its axis and crash straight into the Sun if any Metropolitan draft pick is signed to an overslot contract. Anything to keep a smile on the face of the Commish, right?
No Pick Last Year
1.8 Houston Astros: C Bryce Harper – Southern Nevada
Without piling on too much, I’ll just say that I’m pleased to see something go Houston’s way in this version of the mock. To paraphrase a bad joke I made when doing this last year, no truth to the rumor that the Astros organization is petitioning Major League Baseball to adopt my silly draft rules in time . To take the bad joke a step too far, Houston may want to rethink making the Name Game rule permanent. It would be a real shame to miss out on Anthony Rendon after they get the number one pick next year…
No Pick Last Year
1.9 San Diego Padres: LHP Chris Sale – Florida Gulf Coast
Sale is the right pick, but Sammy Solis would have been a much cuter pick. San Diego to San Diego? Torero to Padre? Cunningham Stadium to Petco Park? All too perfect. As it stands now, Sale to San Diego is actually not a bad pick for a real life mock draft, assuming he is still on the board.
Last Year’s Pick: RHP Tanner Scheppers
1.10 Oakland Athletics: SS Justin O’Connor – Cowan HS (Indiana)
Prep players from both Ohio and Indiana represented in the top ten of a mock. As somebody who has always lived somewhere cold, I appreciate players from chilly locales succeeding, even if it’s only in my Alternate Reality Mock Draft. I know the momentum connecting O’Connor and catching is pretty much unstoppable at this point, but I wonder why it doesn’t seem like anybody has stopped and asked, hey, why not just let him keep playing shortstop, a pretty darn important position in its own right, until he can’t play it anymore? I suppose many don’t think he can stick there as a pro, but I think he’s got the tools to play up the middle professionally. I don’t hate the catcher idea (quite the opposite, really), but O’Connor is a shortstop in my mind until proven otherwise.
Quick Question
Who do you like as the top 2010 MLB Draft prospect with a last name starting with either the letter N or the letter K?
College First Basemen: A Brief History
Broad Conclusions
- If recent draft trends hold, there will only be 1 or 2 major league quality bats capable of holding down a big league starting job out the entire pool of 2010 college first basemen.
- An additional 2 or 3 major league quality bench contributors are likely to emerge from the pool of 2010 college first basemen.
- College first basemen of America, take note: It really helps to be versatile defensively. A quick perusal of the list reveals the vast majority of MLB starting players listed below now play a big league position other than first base.
- With 6 college first basemen taken in the first 23 overall picks, the 2008 MLB Draft was as much as an abberration as it seemed at the time. That said, the end results (only 1 or 2 major league quality bats capable of holding down a big league starting job) may yet fall in line with recent draft history. I’d personally bet the over, but with far less confidence than I had back in June 2008.
- Between 40-60 college first basemen will be drafted in 2010.
- Between 5-15 of those college first basemen will be drafted in the first ten rounds in 2010.
Notes
- Players are listed according to the position announced at the time of the draft according to the invaluable resource Baseball-Reference.
- Individual players were not listed from the three most recent MLB Drafts (2007-2009). We’ll let their more recent professional careers breathe a little bit before deciding who will make it as big league ballplayers or not.
- Designations between “Starters” and “Bench Contributors” (or in some cases, “Potential Bench Contributors”) are subjective in nature; players were given the benefit of the doubt in many cases, with bonus points awarded to guys who have either been a) valued enough by big league teams to receive get big league trials as starters or b) actively pursued via trade or the waiver wire. The most subjective classifications on the list are affixed to players drafted most recently; to remedy this to some degree, please feel free to disregard the mention of Strieby, Robbins, and Cooper as “Future Bench Contributors” if you disagree with those particular assessments.
- Re-drafted players count twice because each draft year is looked at as one singular entity. This method is less helpful when solely looking back at past drafts, but comes in handy when forecasting future draft outcomes, which is the real goal of the activity.
Breakdown
2002 (46 college 1B total; 13 college 1B in top ten rounds)
- Starter: Nick Swisher (1-16; Ohio State)
- Bench Contributor: Brad Eldred (6-163; Florida International)
- Bench Contributor: Ryan Shealy (11-321; Florida)
Notes: Swisher was highest drafted college 1B; Prince Fielder was highest drafted 1B overall; so-called “Moneyball” draft
2003 (42 college 1B total; 10 college 1B in top ten rounds)
- Starter: Conor Jackson (1-19; California)
Notes: Michael Aubrey was highest drafted college 1B (1-11; Tulane); Andy D’alessio (who went on to Clemson) was highest drafted high school 1B
2004 (56 college 1B total; 15 college 1B in top ten rounds)
- Starter: Adam Lind (3-83; University of South Alabama)
- Bench Contributor: Steven Pearce (10-305; South Carolina)
- Bench Contributor: Tommy Everidge (10-307; Sonoma State)
Notes: Michael Ferris was highest drafted college 1B (2-60; Miami Ohio); Daryl Jones was highest drafted high school 1B
2005 (48 college 1B total; 7 college 1B in top ten rounds)
- Future Starter: 33-1007 Tyler Flowers (Chipola JC)
- Potential Bench Contributor: 5-150 Jeff Larish (Arizona State)
- Bench Contributor: 8-241 Steven Pearce (South Carolina)
- Potential Bench Contributor: 8-246 Aaron Bates (North Carolina State)
Notes: Stephen Head was highest drafted college 1B (2-62; Mississippi); Henry Sanchez was highest drafted high school 1B
2006 (44 college 1B total; 11 college 1B in top ten rounds)
- Starter: Chris Davis (5-148; Navarro College)
- Starter: Matt LaPorta (14-433; Florida)
- Potential Bench Contributor: Aaron Bates (3-83; North Carolina State)
- Potential Bench Contributor: Ryan Strieby (4-112; Kentucky)
- Potential Bench Contributor: Whit Robbins (4-119; Georgia Tech)
- Potential Bench Contributor: Craig Cooper (7-213; Notre Dame)
Notes: Mark Hamilton was highest drafted college 1B (2-76; Tulane); Kyle Orr was highest drafted high school 1B
2007 (42 college 1B total; 8 college 1B in top ten rounds)
2008 (51 college 1B total; 11 college 1B in top ten rounds)
Notes: Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak, Brett Wallace, David Cooper, Ike Davis, Allan Dykstra were all college 1B picked in the top 23 overall selections; the next three four-year college 1B after the sextet of first rounders included luminaries such as Mike Sheridan, Jeremy Hamilton, and Steven Caseres
2009 (54 college 1B total; 10 college 1B in top ten rounds)
Data
- 46 + 42 + 56 + 48 + 44 + 42 + 51 + 54 = 383
- There were 383 total college first basemen drafted from 2002-2009 (8 drafts)
- 383/8 = 47.875
- Roughly 48 college first basemen were drafted on average in that span
- 13 +10 + 15 + 7 + 11 + 8 + 11 + 10 = 85
- There were 85 total college first basemen drafted from 2002-2009 (8 drafts) taken in the first ten rounds
- 85/8 = 10.625
- Roughly 10.5 college first basemen were drafted in the first ten rounds on average in that span
Mike Leake’s Debut
I hate being that guy who always quotes himself, but, well, allow me to quote myself:
Leake possesses a good fastball (sitting 88-92, peak 94), plus slider, above-average changeup, usable curve, plus command, plus control, plus athleticism, and, perhaps my personal favorite positive, intriguing potential with the bat. Can’t wait to see what he does with the Reds this season.
Ignore all that pitching stuff (6.2 IP 4 H 1 ER 7 BB 5 K with 106 pitches — 57 for strikes — and 6 GO to 6 AO) and focus on the bolded part only. There are embarrassingly few things on this mortal earth that I love more than pitchers capable of handling the bat. Reading this quote made me all kinds of happy:
“I was almost more excited to hit today than pitch,” Leake said.
Again, ignore that totally unimportant pitching part (6.2 IP 4 H 1 ER 7 BB 5 K with 106 pitches — 57 for strikes — and 6 GO to 6 AO) and focus on what really matters. At the plate, Mike Leake went 2-2 with a pair of singles. That’s good for a 1.000 batting average, people! I’ve read that Leake’s hat is heading to the Hall of Fame, but if it were up to me you’d better be sure it would be his batting helmet making its way to Cooperstown instead.
On a slightly more serious note, here’s the current plan outlining what is in store this week. All entries are subject to change, and, as always, requests are always encouraged.
Plan of Attack for Week of April 12, 2010
- Who Will Be Drafted? Atlantic 10 Edition
- Positional Rankings (position TBD…college lefties, maybe?)
- Alternate Reality Mock Draft (expect this on Friday, the only day of the week I actually have planned out already)
- Mystery Draft 2.0
- More Data!
- Responses to all comments that I missed this past week
Data, Data, Data 2 – Revenge of the Worm Killers
Yesterday we looked at some of the flyballiest of college baseball’s most flyballing flyball pitchers. Today, the opposite. I limited it to potential first round candidates only, but now feel guilty about leaving out other strong groundball pitchers like Miami’s Chris Hernandez (68%), Cal’s Dixon Anderson (67%), and Florida State’s John Gast (70%). With that out of the way and my guilt finally assuaged, here are five potential first round starting pitchers with groundball percentages greater than 50%…
North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey – 78%
Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale – 67%
Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis – 75%
Texas JR RHP Brandon Workman – 62%
Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn – 71%
And a pair of top-five 2011 prospects because it’s Friday…
Texas SO RHP Taylor Jungmann – 75%
Vanderbilt SO RHP Sonny Gray – 71%
Data, Data, Data
Big couple of days ahead at the real life, steady paycheck job, so today we’ll dig deeper into the data compiled so far and update the groundball/flyball pitcher numbers that pop up here on the site from time to time. Today let’s take a closer look at five potential first round starting pitchers with groundout percentages less than 50%…
Mississippi JR LHP Drew Pomeranz – 48%
LSU JR RHP Anthony Ranaudo – 44%
Georgia Tech JR RHP Deck McGuire – 49%
San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair – 38%
Arkansas JR RHP Brett Eibner – 47%
Mystery Draft 2010 – College Righthanders
No names, no hype, no actual right or wrong answer. Which prospect of the three college righthanders listed below would you be happiest to see your favorite team draft this June? Statistically, all three prospects are very similar, with the greatest discrepancy coming in Player A’s higher BB rate.
Player A
- Fastball: heavy 90-93 pitch, peaking at 94-97 mph
- Curveball: plus 77-80 mph pitch
- Change: sinking low-80s mph pitch with legit long-term plus potential
- Greatest Strengths: fastball explodes out of his hand when on; hard curve combines the best elements of both the traditional curve and a slider
- Biggest Concerns: command of secondary stuff comes and goes; inconsistent fastball velocity, both in-game and from game-to-game; below-average control
- Height, Weight: 6-5, 225 pounds
Player B
- Fastball: sitting 90-92, peaking at 93-94 mph
- Curveball: plus high-70s mph pitch
- Slider: mid-80s mph pitch that should be an above-average offering professionally
- Change: presently a solid pitch with encouraging arm action
- Biggest Strengths: depth of repertoire and excellent command of secondary pitches
- Biggest Concern: fastball isn’t overpowering; allegedly tips his pitches unknowingly due to tick in mechanics
- Height, Weight: 6-6, 220 pounds
Player C
- Fastball: 92-94 FB with plus life, peaking at 96-99 mph out of bullpen
- Curveball: decent 75-76 mph pitch with potential to be strikeout offering in time
- Change: average 83-84 pitch
- Other: low-80s slider and cutter have both been utilized in past, but haven’t been used in game action this spring
- Greatest Strengths: fastball alone is enough to get him his big league shot; plenty of projection left on an arm with minimal mileage
- Biggest Concerns: limited starting experience and lack of current above-average secondary offering
- Height, Weight: 6-5, 200 pounds
2010 MLB Draft: Who Will Be Drafted? ACC Edition
2010 Draftable ACC Talent
- Duke JR SS Jake Lemmerman
- Duke SR LHP Chris Manno
- Duke SR RHP Mike Ness
- Duke JR RHP Michael Seander
- Virginia JR RHP Cody Winiarski
- Virginia JR 2B Phil Gosselin
- Virginia JR OF Jarrett Parker
- Virginia JR RHP Tyler Wilson
- Virginia JR RHP Robert Morey
- Virginia JR OF Dan Grovatt
- Virginia JR C/1B/OF Kenny Swab
- Virginia SR SS Tyler Cannon
- Virginia JR RHP Kevin Arico
- North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey
- North Carolina JR RHP Colin Bates
- North Carolina JR RHP Patrick Johnson
- North Carolina JR RHP Bryant Gaines
- North Carolina JR 1B Dillon Hazlett
- North Carolina JR C Jesse Wierzbicki
- North Carolina SR SS Ryan Graepel
- Georgia Tech JR RHP Deck McGuire
- Georgia Tech JR RHP Kevin Jacob
- Georgia Tech JR 3B Derek Dietrich
- Georgia Tech JR RHP Brandon Cumpton
- Georgia Tech JR C Cole Leonida
- Georgia Tech SR 1B Tony Plagman
- Georgia Tech JR OF Jeff Rowland
- Georgia Tech JR OF Chase Burnette
- Georgia Tech JR 2B Tony Nichols
- Georgia Tech JR LHP Zach Brewster
- Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn
- Virginia Tech JR OF Austin Wates
- Virginia Tech SR C Steve Domecus
- Virginia Tech SO RHP Mathew Price
- Virginia Tech JR SS Tim Smalling
- Virginia Tech SR C Anthony Sosnoskie
- North Carolina State SR 2B Dallas Poulk
- North Carolina State SR OF Kyle Wilson
- North Carolina State JR LHP Grant Sasser
- North Carolina State JR 2B Russell Wilson
- North Carolina State JR RHP Jake Buchanan
- North Carolina State JR RHP Rey Cotilla
- Miami JR C Yasmani Grandal
- Miami JR LHP Eric Erickson
- Miami JR LHP Chris Hernandez
- Miami SR RHP David Gutierrrez
- Miami SR 2B Scott Lawson
- Miami SR RHP Jason Santana
- Florida State JR OF Tyler Holt
- Florida State JR OF Mike McGee
- Florida State SR SS Stephen Cardullo
- Florida State JR RHP Geoff Parker
- Florida State JR LHP John Gast
- Wake Forest JR OF Steven Brooks
- Boston College SR OF Robbie Anston
- Boston College JR RHP Kevin Moran
- Boston College JR 1B Mickey Wiswall
- Boston College JR LHP Pat Dean
- Maryland SR LHP John Dischert
- Maryland JR RHP Brett Harman
- Maryland JR LHP Adam Kolarek
- Clemson JR OF Jeff Schaus
- Clemson JR OF Kyle Parker
- Clemson SR 2B Mike Freeman
- Clemson JR LHP Casey Harman
- Clemson SR OF Wilson Boyd
- Clemson JR RHP Josh Thrailkill
The Near-Misses
…or prospects capable of playing their way into draft consideration this June or next…
- (Virginia JR OF John Barr)
- (North Carolina JR OF Ben Bunting)
- (North Carolina JR RHP Greg Holt)
- (North Carolina JR RHP Nate Striz)
- (Georgia Tech SR RHP Andrew Robinson)
- (Georgia Tech SR OF Jay Dantzler)
- (Virginia Tech JR LHP Justin Wright)
- (Virginia Tech SR RHP Ben Rowen)
- (North Carolina State SR LHP Alex Sogard)
- (North Carolina State JR RHP Rob Chamra)
- (North Carolina State JR C Chris Schaeffer)
- (North Carolina State JR LHP John Lambert)
- (North Carolina State JR LHP Nick Rice)
- (North Carolina State JR OF Ryan Mathews)
- (North Carolina State SO RHP Gary Gillheeney)
- (Miami SR RHP Taylor Wulf)
- (Miami JR OF Chris Pelaez)
- (Miami JR LHP Iden Nazario)
- (Miami SR OF Ryan Perry)
- (Florida State JR RHP Daniel Bennett)
- (Florida State SO OF Taiwan Easterling)
- (Florida State JR RHP Tyler Everett)
- (Florida State JR 3B Stuart Tapley)
- (Wake Forest JR LHP Mark Adzick)
- (Wake Forest SR C Mike Murray)
- (Boston College JR 2B Matt Hamlet)
- (Maryland SR RHP Ian Schwalenberg)
- (Clemson SO 3B John Hinson)
- (Clemson JR OF Chris Epps)
- (Clemson JR C John Nester)
- (Clemson JR OF Addison Johnson)
Mike Leake = Big Leaguer
A look back through the archives at what has been written at this very site about the newest member of the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation. The evolution of former Arizona State prospect and current big leaguer Mike Leake as seen through the lens of a nobody amateur draft prognosticator…
Leake was ranked 11th on my first ever published list of draft-eligible college players. Not bad, right? Just ignore the fact that he was sandwiched between Indiana’s Josh Phegley (a player I still like, but clearly not a prospect on Leake’s level) and the pitching version of Long Island’s James Jones, a player eventually drafted by Seattle as a toolsy outfielder. My evaluation of him at the time included the following defense of the “controversial” at the time ranking of Leake over Baylor’s Kendal Volz:
Leake over Volz is a little strange, but it came down to present plus command and movement over potential power plus stuff across the board.
One week later I noted the way Leake outdueled fellow future first round pick Kyle Gibson. Leake’s numbers that day: 8 IP 1 H 0 ER 1 BB 10 K (11 GO/2 AO). Also noted at the time was Leake’s stellar groundball numbers: 19 of his 23 batted ball outs at that point in the season came on the ground.
This is where things starting to get hot and heavy with the Leake lovefest. His ranking (6th on a list of 2009 draft-eligible righthanded college pitchers) may not seem all that impressive, but keep in mind that meant only Aaron Crow, Tanner Scheppers, Kyle Gibson, Alex White, and Stephen Strasburg were ahead of him. Not a bad list of pitchers to fall behind, all things considered. His quick scouting report at the time looked like this:
Leake literally has everything I look for in a pitching prospect. Let’s do it bullet point style:
- Plus athleticism – has played first, second, short, and every outfield position as a Sun Devil
- Ability to handle the bat – hit .340/.500/.574 in 47 at bats last season (12/9 walk to strikeout ratio)
- Groundball inducing stuff – so far this season, 19 of his 23 non-K outs recorded have come on the ground
- Plus secondary pitch – slider works better as another groundball inducing weapon, but it also creates plenty of swings and misses
- Above-average third pitch – his changeup is nearly as good as his slider
- Plus command – his ability to spot any of his three pitches has earned him universal praise from scouts
- Plus control – roughly 1.75 BB/9 in his college career
- Plus makeup/competitiveness – only good things have been said by scouts, coaches, teammates, and parents about Leake’s drive to succeed and strong work ethic
What Leake is missing is an ideal frame (he’s 6-0, 180), an overpowering fastball (sits 89-92), and a whole lot of room for growth. I’d argue the last point a bit because I think any two-way player stands to gain a little something once they begin to focus solely on one aspect of the game, but, on the whole, those negatives are fair criticisms of Leake’s game. Fortunately, a blazing hot fastball and a “prototypical pitcher’s frame” each fall very low on the list of things I care about. A high radar gun reading on a fastball is a good thing, don’t get me wrong, but good fastball movement (something Leake has in spades) trumps good fastball speed every time. There is something to be said about a physical frame that needs filling out eventually producing a better fastball down the road, sure, but many college pitchers are what they are by their junior seasons anyway. The backlash against short righthanders is not grounded in empirical research, so I tend to actually look at short righthanded pitching as being a potentially undervalued asset in the draft every year. Yes, I just spun Leake’s lack of height as a positive. Your mileage might vary with that part of the assessment.
One industry comp and one personal comp for Leake before we wrap this thing up. First, my slightly off the wall comparison – highly-touted Japanese prospect Yu Darvish. Darvish has four inches on Leake and throws a knuckle-curve, but they have similar stuff (sinker, slider, change) otherwise. The better comparison may be the more common one – a lesser Tim Hudson, right down to the two-way talent shown at the college level. You could do worse than a poor man’s Tim Hudson come draft day.
My first prediction of where Leake would wind up drafted came at the end of the piece. Wasn’t quite on the money, but the guess worked pretty well for an early March estimate:
There will be sexier options on draft day for teams picking in the mid- to late first round, but there may not be as sure a bet to be a dependable major leaguer as Leake. I bet he is a target of teams with multiple high picks (Arizona) and mid-market franchises picking in the late teens/early twenties (St. Louis, Toronto, Houston).
When I updated the college big board with report card grades (a good idea for 2010 come to think of it), Leake received high praise:
11. Mike Leake – RHSP – Arizona State – One of the easiest grades to assign, Leake’s been phenomenal through three starts so far… A+
I can’t believe there is any doubt that Mike Leake has a first round caliber arm. His latest outing was excellent: 9 IP 5 H 1 ER 1 BB 15 K in a win over rival Arizona. His season numbers are pristine (48/7 strikeout to walk numbers in 40 innings of 1.35 ERA pitching) and his scouting reports have been positive all spring long.
Leake may be my favorite prospect in all the draft, but I’m not sure how much my opinion matters to teams drafting in the first round…yes, he’s a very good prospect and an almost sure-fire first rounder, but I don’t want my inflated opinion of him getting in the way of properly assessing his relative value.
Predicted Leake would go to Colorado with the 11th pick in the first round one month ahead of the draft
Stuck with Leake to Colorado with the 11th pick in last mock before the big day
Fourth on my last Big Board leading up to the draft! Fourth! My love of Leake as a prospect seemingly grew with every passing week. Nothing has changed from the glowing scouting report posted above. Leake possesses a good fastball (sitting 88-92, peak 94), plus slider, above-average changeup, usable curve, plus command, plus control, plus athleticism, and, perhaps my personal favorite positive, intriguing potential with the bat. Can’t wait to see what he does with the Reds this season.
2010 NFL Draft Big Board
Holiday weekend, spring break, warm weather, Opening Day quickly approaching…feels like as good a time as any to do something totally different around these parts. I finalized my 2010 NFL Draft for something elsewhere on the internet last night, so why not open up the list to public ridicule here as well as there?
Not included, unfortunately, are OF/LHP/S Chad Jones, OF/HB Toby Gerhardt, OF/WR Eric Decker, OF/WR Riley Cooper, and, the likely crown jewel of the 2011 NFL Draft and my favorite pro baseball prospect of the bunch, OF/QB Jake Locker. Between you and me, the top 24ish prospects ranked or so are where I feel most confident; once I get to the spot where my favorite team picks in the first round, my already meager knowledge base tends to dissipate. Keep that in mind as you check out the big board at the end.
As much as I love the NFL Draft now, I REALLY loved it back in the day. REALLY loved it. If it’s in ALL CAPS, bold, and italics, then you know I’m serious. We’re talking taping and then re-watching games on my sister’s 14″ 2-in-1 TV/VCR combo. Ah, life before the internet boom. If I had high speed internet back then, perhaps we’d all be reading the fantastic insight from the super successful website Football Draft Report right now. If that was the case, you would have been able to read gems like the ones I recently recovered from my 2002 NFL Draft notes whilst cleaning out my office…
1. No prospect reminds me more of a young Troy Aikman than David Carr. (Good call!)
2. No prospect reminds me more of a young Warren Sapp than Wendell Bryant. (Well, in my defense, they were both large men who played football!)
3. No prospect reminds me more of a young Derek Brooks than Napoleon Harris. (Maybe I just wanted a guy named Napoleon to succeed for a change…)
4. Julius Peppers is a classic boom or bust prospect. Smart money is on the latter. (Terrible, terrible, terrible. I think the 16-year old me was just happy to use “latter” correctly here…)
5. Quentin Jammer = best player in class (Not the stupidest thing I’ve ever said, but still not too bright…)
6. Ryan Sims = most ready to play right away in class (Still not sure why he was as bad as he was, but, boy, what a nondescript playing career he’s in the midst of…)
7. Jabar Gaffney should have a long, undistinguished career as a journeyman WR (Alright, that wasn’t a bad prediction actually…)
8. Antonio Bryant will have a better career than any other receiver in his class (Considering Donte Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, and Gaffney were all seen as better bets at the time, I like this call…)
9. Kalimba Edwards > Dwight Freeney (Arguably as bad as the Aikman to Carr comp…)
10. Josh Reed = Troy Brown with more speed (This may not have worked out, but I’ll defend Josh Reed’s value to the death…)
11. TJ Duckett = Eddie George (In a parallel universe where the toilets actually flush counter clockwise, maybe…)
12. DeShaun Foster will go down as the best runner in the draft while Clinton Portis will be a steady starter, but never a star (First and last time I’ve ever doubted a Hurricane…)
13. Lamont Thompson = four time All Pro safety (What an oddly specific, and truly terrible, prediction…)
With my reputation as a brilliant football draft prognosticator now a matter of public record, please do enjoy yet another faceless hack’s list of most promising 2010 NFL Draft prospects.
2010 NFL DRAFT FIRST ROUND BIG BOARD
1. Suh
2. Clausen
3. Berry
4. Bradford
5. McCoy
6. McClain
7. Thomas
8. Haden
9. Spiller
10. Okung
11. Bulaga
12. Iupati
13. Morgan
14. Pierre-Paul
15. Price
16. Wilson
17. Graham
18. Campbell
19. Davis
20. T. Williams
21. Bryant
22. Mays
23. Bowman
24. Kindle
25. Hughes
26. Gresham
27. Best
28. Brown
29. Pouncey
30. D. Williams
31. Tate
32. Odrick
Five Quick Thoughts
1. I’ve been working on an updated 2010 MLB Draft big board, but still haven’t quite found the right mix to get it published yet. Right now, my top 15 shakes out like this: Harper – Taillon – Cole – McGuire – Hahn – Whitson – Castellanos – C. Sale – Pomeranz – Paxton – Wilson – Machado – Harvey – Workman – Ranaudo. Sticking with the same top three I’ve had all along (I think), but Pomeranz and Machado both get considerable leaps up the board. I still have my questions about Pomeranz, but the results so far (almost 15 K/9 IP) are just too good to ignore.
2. I always debate on the relative merits of a posts chronicling the risers and fallers of the draft season, but always wind up shelving it for one reason or another. Looking back at an early season edition of an unpublished draft that never saw the light of day made me think back to an interesting tidbit I heard about one of this year’s biggest fallers. Georgia Tech closer Kevin Jacob = the new Josh Fields, Georgia’s old closer. Fields wound up going back to school his senior year in an effort to bump up his draft stock. Will Jacob, a pitcher widely considered to be at or near the top of the list of potential pro closers this year, go the same route?
3. A goal of mine this year is to predict as many of the draft-eligible D1 college players selected in the draft as possible. I wonder what a good target would be? 50% seems too low and, confident as I am, 100% seems flat out impossible. Split the difference and shoot for 75%? 80%? This year will be a trial run and set a baseline for what I’d like to do in the future. Should be fun.
4. In anticipation of said prediction, I’ve spent the past few days digging through my notes to get a feel for the draft-eligible talent on a conference-by-conference scale. Initial thoughts include the following gems: a) the Atlantic 10 has a real paucity of good hitting prospects, but a surprising number of interesting arms, b) the Sun Belt is headlined by Bryce Brentz, but a couple of shortstops could make some noise as defense-first mid-round draft prospects this June, c) at first glance, the ACC appeared to be lacking in talent compared to recent years, but it still has a pretty good overall blend of star potential (McGuire, Hahn, Harvey) and steady yet unspectacular potential regulars (any number of solid starting pitching candidates, plus bats like Grovatt, Dietrich, Wates, Grandal, Holt, Parker, and Wiswall). More on this to come…
5. I’m on spring break, so that means I’m now one day into three paid days off from work. Spring break falls this year in the week leading up to MLB’s Opening Day, a week otherwise known as the longest week of the year. That worked out pretty well, I’d say. Then again, if the break came next week then I’d be currently getting amped up for a road trip down to DC for Halladay v Lannan on Monday. With temperatures hitting the 80s this weekend and live baseball action back in Philadelphia (Phillies v Pirates on Saturday…hey, I’ll take what I can get), life is good. Of course, spring break isn’t all fun and games. Relax? Me? Never. Goals for spring break include watching baseball (hard work, I know), getting a tan (brutal), and doing some serious site maintenance (now we’re talking!). Time to update links, change up the layout a bit, and maybe start thinking about a full-scale redesign. An updated big board and an April mock draft are also both on the agenda.
2010 MLB Draft – First Round Names To (Probably) Know
Guessing the 32 names expected to go in the first round two and a half months in advance probably isn’t an activity that makes a whole lot of sense, but, hey, why start making sense now?
Last year I threw out 30 names that I thought would be first rounders in 2009. Remember that? Good times. I hit on a whopping 17 of them. I’m not sure what the success rate should be, but I get the feeling that 17 of 30 isn’t particularly good. The players I had in the first round who weren’t first rounders in the end included Tyler Skaggs, Tanner Scheppers, Luke Bailey, Austin Maddox, Rich Poythress, James Paxton, DJ LeMahieu, Kentrail Davis, Trent Stevenson, Alex Wilson, Ryan Berry, Andy Oliver, and Jason Stoffel. The majority of those misses make me feel like a real dope in hindsight.
Poythress, LeMahieu, and Davis were all non-elite college bats that I pushed up the draft board in large part to being near the best of a weak college crop of hitters. Lesson #1: Teams will let the draft board come to them early on rather than reach for the better players at the draft’s weakest positions. Stevenson (hopped on his bandwagon after reading a lot of positive early season buzz), Wilson (another early season helium guy and the reason I was too scared to put Barret Loux on the list), Berry (really liked his glasses), Oliver (didn’t really like him, but succumbed to peer pressure), and Stoffel (figured big league teams would reach on a reliever in the late first) were all part of my pitching misses.
Skaggs, Scheppers, Bailey, Maddox, and Paxton aren’t misses I’m too stressed out about for a variety of reasons, mostly because I think they are all darn good prospects that are better than some of the players taken in the first round. Yes, I think quite highly of myself, why do you ask? Skaggs’s prospect stock was hurt by a better than usual lefthanded pitching crop, Scheppers and Bailey both had major injury concerns, Maddox fell at least partly because of signability concerns, and Paxton’s stock shot up late in the draft season, but never made it quite high enough to get into the first.
Enough about 2009, let’s see if we can do better here in 2010. First up, the best of the best. I’d call them locks if I had more of a backbone, but will instead hide behind the quotes. “Locks” it is.
2010 MLB Draft First Round “Locks”
C – Bryce Harper
1B –
2B –
SS – Christian Colon, Manny Machado, Yordy Cabrera
3B – Zack Cox, Nick Castellanos
CF –
OF – Bryce Brentz, Austin Wilson
RHP – Deck McGuire, Jesse Hahn, Anthony Ranaudo, Jameson Taillon, AJ Cole, Karsten Whitson, Dylan Covey
LHP – Drew Pomeranz, Chris Sale
I originally wanted to leave it at the locks and call it a day, but what’s the harm in stretching this out to attach 32 names to the 32 first round spots? My next set of guesses includes the following names:
SS Justin O’Conner, CF Chevy Clarke, OF Josh Sale, RHP Stetson Allie, RHP DeAndre Smelter, RHP Kaleb Cowart, RHP Kevin Gausman, RHP Matt Harvey, RHP Brandon Workman, RHP Alex Wimmers, and LHP James Paxton
17 “locks” plus the 11 new names brings us to 28 potential first rounders so far. Four more to go. Hmm. Let’s see what four names we can pull out of the old magic hat here…
College Catcher, C Stefan Sabol, CF Angelo Gumbs, RHP Cam Bedrosian
Wouldn’t it be weird if there was a draft-eligible player by the name College Catcher? It would be like my favorite player in the non-Jordan licensed NBA Live 97, Roster Player. To add to the realism, I’d always look at the R.Player in the lineup and just pretend his first name was Reggie. Anyway, College Catcher isn’t actually a real person, but if he was real than I’d mentally change his name to Charlie Catcher whenever I’d see C.Catcher in the lineup. So who will be the 2010 draft’s Charlie Catcher? Odds are good that at least one of the two big college catchers from the junior class will go in this year’s first, I think. That’s why I wimped out and hedged my bets by reserving a first round spot for “college catcher of your choosing.” Feel free to pencil in Miami’s Yasmani Grandal and/or LSU’s Micah Gibbs if that’s the direction you see things going this June. Contrarian that I am, my pick isn’t one of the two junior catchers but rather UC Riverside’s sophomore draft-eligible backstop Rob Brantly. What a twist!
Sabol is a favorite due to his strong bat and great athleticism, but I’m reminded of my fondness of Austin Maddox last year and I get a little gun-shy. Sabol is a much better athlete and runner, but the two share enough similarities with the bat to give me pause. Gumbs gets a mention for two reasons. First, and I’ll be as succinct here as possible, all five tools are first round quality. Easy enough. The second reason I’m sticking here is my belief he fits the mold of the type of player the Phillies could target at pick 27. Then again, Philadelphia’s front office recently came out and specifically mentioned third base and catcher as positions of organizational need that will be addressed this June. Bedrosian’s long been a favorite, so might as well stick with him.
2010 Draft-Eligible Pitching: Groundout Percentage
The week ahead is wide open, so let me know if there’s anything you’d like to see. I’m currently working on a couple of high school position rankings, more college stuff (mostly position lists by conference), an updated big board, and a brand spanking new mock draft. With so much half-finished content staring me in the face, I’m happy to put something on hold to do something new and exciting as a change of pace, so if there is anything new and exciting you want to see, please let me know and I’ll make it happen.
Because I hate posts that don’t have much to do with baseball, how about a little content? The title says it all, except for the brief and wondrous snippets of 2011 draft-eligible players included (both 2011s would be second on their lists, by the way). The data I have doesn’t include every pitcher in college baseball, but rather a sampling of some of the biggest names…I’m only one man, after all. Like last time, if you have a player you are curious about, let me know.
Highest Percentage of Groundball Outs
1) North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey
2) Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis
3) Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale
HM) 2011 draft-eligible Texas SO RHP Taylor Jungmann
Lowest Percentage of Groundball Outs
1) San Diego SR RHP AJ Griffin
2) San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair
3) LSU JR RHP Austin Ross
HM) Cal State Fullerton SO RHP Tyler Pill
2010 MLB Draft: Pac-10 Shortstops
It’s purely coincidental that the first three conferences I’ve looked at have exactly four potential draft picks who play shortstop apiece. Weird. The order of these four really could be picked out of a hat and look about as good as what I’ve got here; we’re talking about a group of tightly bunched, similarly talented future utility guys, so I guess it makes sense that they are so close. Let’s see who is worth knowing in the Pac-10…
Stanford JR SS Jake Schlander
Height, Weight: 6-2, 195
FR – .232/.307/.256 (24 BB/41 K; 3-3 SB)
SO – .232/.288/.324 (16 BB/41 K; 3-4 SB)
JR – .283/.420/.472 (12 BB/7 K; 1-1 SB)
Jake Schlander can really pick it at shortstop, but his inability to make consistent contact, hit for power, and get on base regularly through his first two college seasons has put a damper on his pro prospects. He’s started since day one at Stanford, putting up lines of .232/.307/.256 and .232/.285/.324 in his freshman and sophomore year. Those are stunningly bad numbers. However, as mentioned, Schlander can really pick it at shortstop. I mean, he can really, really pick it. Plus range, flawless hands, strong arm; defensively, Schlander has it all. His defense is so good that I felt comfortable predicting that he’d be on draft boards back when his offensive numbers were, and I say this with all due respect, straight up horrible. One month into the college season Schlander’s bat has show such unexpected signs of life that it may be time to start recalibrating his final draft position’s ceiling. Before the season I wrote this: “Expect a forward thinking front office, maybe Seattle or Boston, to pop Schlander late (round 35+) against all offensive odds.” If the offensive gains can be maintained, Schlander could see his draft stock jump up 20 rounds. Too drastic a reaction to a small sample of early season plate appearances? Perhaps, but I’m alright with jumping the gun a bit when the tools are there to justify it.
Washington State JR SS Shea Vucinich
Height, Weight: 6-0, 183
FR – .316/.357/.440 (8 BB/34 K; 2-5 SB)
SO – .230/.341/.377 (27 BB/41 K; 8-10 SB)
JR – .358/.460/.604 (6 BB/13 K; 3-4 SB)
Reports on Vucinich’s defense vary depending on the day, but most seem to agree his upside with the glove is significant. I’ve even heard some evaluators touting him as a potential plus defender up the middle. He also has shown good power potential throughout his career with the Cougars. That’s the good news. The less good news is centered around Vucinich’s aggressive approach at the plate. His free swinging ways help explain some of power output (swing hard at anything around the plate and sometimes the ball goes very far), but it’s also gotten him in trouble in the past. Something about his skill set had me really curious about locking down some worthwhile comps. Best two I came up with are former Padres starting SS/2B Damian Jackson (44th rounder) and current Red Sox minor leaguer Tug Hulett (14th rounder). It wouldn’t surprise me to see Vucinich split the difference between the two, both in eventual draft landing spot and pro career accomplishments.
Arizona JR SS Bryce Ortega
Height, Weight: 5-11, 175
Birth Date: 9/22/88 (Age-21 season)
FR – .326/.409/.429 (25 BB/24 K; 13-15 SB)
SO – .324/.420/.438 (31 BB/32 K; 16-18 SB)
JR – .258/.390/.274 (11 BB/4 K; 9-9 SB)
Ortega put up very consistent numbers in his first two full seasons at Arizona, but has taken a step backwards in the power department in the early going of 2010. As a matter of fact, he’s the only one of the four players listed who has experienced a decline in his performance so far in 2010. The most commonly cited reason for Ortega’s early season struggles relate back to his transition from shortstop (a position he is more than capable of playing, for the record) to second base; not sure I buy it, but it’s a thought. Strong base running and good patience have long been the bedrocks of his offensive game, so it’s good to see those areas remain consistent despite his 2010 contact and power deficiencies. Patience at the plate, a two-year track record of pop (2010 be damned), excellent base running instincts, and a versatile glove fit the potential utility infielder mold pretty well, don’t you think?
UCLA JR SS Niko Gallego
Height, Weight: 5-11, 180
Birth Date: 12/29/88 (Age-21 season)
FR – .317/.378/.415 (2 BB/7 K; 1-2 SB)
SO – .273/.361/.326 (16 BB/34 K; 6-10 SB)
JR – .305/.411/.542 (8 BB/8 K; 5-5 SB)
Gallego didn’t do much to impress in his first two years with the Bruins, but experience in two quality wood bat summer leagues (Northwoods League and Cape Cod League) and pro baseball bloodlines (father Mike had almost 3,000 big league at bats) make him a good bet to hear his name called on draft day. The quality start in 2010 certainly doesn’t hurt his prospect stock, but, again, his pro future maxes out at utility player. He doesn’t quite have dear old dad’s glove, but may have more upside in his bat than the .239/.320/.328 career line put up by his father. Speaking of comparisons to Mike Gallego, enjoy this quote from former Arizona State head coach Pat Murphy on comparing Gallego the senior to Dustin Pedroia:
I’ve been trying to figure it out and I can’t. Mike Gallego is a good friend of mine and I used to tell him that he reminded me of Gags. That used to piss Pedroia off. He would say ‘Mike [expletive] Gallego, are you [expletive] me?’ and he would say that all the way back when he was a freshman. Can you imagine a freshman in college baseball reacting like that when you’re comparing him to a Major Leaguer…but that’s exactly the way Pedro is.
The Baseball Draft Report 