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Mystery Draft 2010 – College Righthanders

No names, no hype, no actual right or wrong answer. Which prospect of the three college righthanders listed below would you be happiest to see your favorite team draft this June? Statistically, all three prospects are very similar, with the greatest discrepancy coming in Player A’s higher BB rate.

Player A

  • Fastball: heavy 90-93 pitch, peaking at 94-97 mph
  • Curveball: plus 77-80 mph pitch
  • Change: sinking low-80s mph pitch with legit long-term plus potential
  • Greatest Strengths: fastball explodes out of his hand when on; hard curve combines the best elements of both the traditional curve and a slider
  • Biggest Concerns: command of secondary stuff comes and goes; inconsistent fastball velocity, both in-game and from game-to-game; below-average control
  • Height, Weight: 6-5, 225 pounds

Player B

  • Fastball: sitting 90-92, peaking at 93-94 mph
  • Curveball: plus high-70s mph pitch
  • Slider: mid-80s mph pitch that should be an above-average offering professionally
  • Change: presently a solid pitch with encouraging arm action
  • Biggest Strengths: depth of repertoire and excellent command of secondary pitches
  • Biggest Concern: fastball isn’t overpowering; allegedly tips his pitches unknowingly due to tick in mechanics
  • Height, Weight: 6-6, 220 pounds

Player C

  • Fastball: 92-94 FB with plus life, peaking at 96-99 mph out of bullpen
  • Curveball: decent 75-76 mph pitch with potential to be strikeout offering in time
  • Change: average 83-84 pitch
  • Other: low-80s slider and cutter have both been utilized in past, but haven’t been used in game action this spring
  • Greatest Strengths: fastball alone is enough to get him his big league shot; plenty of projection left on an arm with minimal mileage
  • Biggest Concerns: limited starting experience and lack of current above-average secondary offering
  • Height, Weight: 6-5, 200 pounds


  1. Joshua B. says:

    I want to first say that I love this drill. It’s great, hopefully enough people get on and post to make it worthwhile.

    I like A’s FB/CRV combo the most of any pitcher above, and the fact the changeup could be plus makes me want to bite. However, since they’re college pitchers, the inconsistent velocity and command really worry me.

    B’s two above-average breaking balls entice me. Tipping pitches should be easily correctable once a good pitching coach gets a hold of him. For some reason I don’t want to draft him though. Maybe, since I assume they’re first round caliber righties, I don’t want to draft a starter lacking a definite plus fastball in the first round.

    C is my choice – I’m a sucker for a big fastball with plus life. The ball just looks pretty cutting, sinking and riding all over in big strides. I would like a plus secondary offering out of my first round college arm, but will seeing that his curve has some potential to be a plus pitch and you did say his change is average now. I like that he still has room to grow too.

    • Rob Ozga says:

      Glad you liked this, hoping to maybe make it a weekly (more or less) feature. Loved your assessments on each pitcher, they actually work really, really well with the real life counterpart each prospect aligns with. Any guesses as to the real identity of each player?

      The inspiration for the post came from a recent shakeup of my personal big board. Player B is a very highly regarded prospect for this June’s draft, while A and C are viewed in a slightly less positive light. That’s not to say A and C aren’t seen as possible or even likely first rounders, but many consider each player to be inferior as a prospect to B. I was guilty of this as well, but am now coming around to the same order it seems like you’ve got: C, A, and B.

      I’m not normally one to jump up players too much based on small in-season samples, but I am willing to move guys based on updates in their scouting profiles. That’s pretty much the point where I’m at now with regard to my big board; enough new information is out there from the scouting side that I’m confident in moving around players to spots where I think they will stay on the board from now until June. In other words, my next big board (coming soon!) figures to give a pretty decent idea of where I stand on prospects (especially college guys) from here on out. The order of the players listed above should follow with that C, A, and B pattern…

      • Joshua B. says:

        SPOILER ALERT!!!!

        I feel fairly confident about their identities, however I did not try to identify them prior to my first post.

        A: Brandon Workman
        B: Deck McGuire
        C. Jesse Hahn

        I would’ve drafted both Workman and Hahn in the first 15 picks even before this exercise (assuming of course I am correct). Hahn has probably moved up the most in my mind, of any college starter. I’m actually slightly more fond of Workman though, typical now that I’ve said I like “C” the best, right?

        McGuire’s fastball has a lot of sink on it, correct? I think that detail, which was left out, may have affected opinions. McGuire is certainly the safest choice. However, as I once thought of him as a potential #2 starter, I’m now thinking he has a lower ceiling. Both Workman and Hahn could have more upside.

  2. SchmidtXC says:

    Agree with the above poster…I love this type of thing. Player C is very tempting, but the heavy fastball and sinking changeup of player A do it for me. I think both will probably need to work on their secondary stuff in the minors, but a guy who generate lots of grounders and having two potential plus secondary offerings is just the kind of guy that I love to have.

    • Rob Ozga says:

      One of the statistical pieces that I didn’t add in there was the GO/AO ratio, but you did an awesome job inferring it from the quick scouting report provided. Both Player A and C have outstanding GO% so far this college season. In fact, Player A has the highest number of any draft-eligible player I’ve tracked so far and Player C is third. Player B, according to the data I’ve kept track of so far, has given up more outs in the air than on the ground.

  3. Sam says:

    My pick would depend a little on my team. If I had a team that was going nowhere and desperately needed some high upside talent, I would take a shot on Player A. If I had a team that needed steady players with a higher floor, then I would take Player B.

    Also, side note, Player B reminds me a little of what I saw in scouting reports about Mike Leake. Do you think that is a fair comp? I know he is bigger than Leake but the skill set seems pretty similar.

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