Guessing the 32 names expected to go in the first round two and a half months in advance probably isn’t an activity that makes a whole lot of sense, but, hey, why start making sense now?
Last year I threw out 30 names that I thought would be first rounders in 2009. Remember that? Good times. I hit on a whopping 17 of them. I’m not sure what the success rate should be, but I get the feeling that 17 of 30 isn’t particularly good. The players I had in the first round who weren’t first rounders in the end included Tyler Skaggs, Tanner Scheppers, Luke Bailey, Austin Maddox, Rich Poythress, James Paxton, DJ LeMahieu, Kentrail Davis, Trent Stevenson, Alex Wilson, Ryan Berry, Andy Oliver, and Jason Stoffel. The majority of those misses make me feel like a real dope in hindsight.
Poythress, LeMahieu, and Davis were all non-elite college bats that I pushed up the draft board in large part to being near the best of a weak college crop of hitters. Lesson #1: Teams will let the draft board come to them early on rather than reach for the better players at the draft’s weakest positions. Stevenson (hopped on his bandwagon after reading a lot of positive early season buzz), Wilson (another early season helium guy and the reason I was too scared to put Barret Loux on the list), Berry (really liked his glasses), Oliver (didn’t really like him, but succumbed to peer pressure), and Stoffel (figured big league teams would reach on a reliever in the late first) were all part of my pitching misses.
Skaggs, Scheppers, Bailey, Maddox, and Paxton aren’t misses I’m too stressed out about for a variety of reasons, mostly because I think they are all darn good prospects that are better than some of the players taken in the first round. Yes, I think quite highly of myself, why do you ask? Skaggs’s prospect stock was hurt by a better than usual lefthanded pitching crop, Scheppers and Bailey both had major injury concerns, Maddox fell at least partly because of signability concerns, and Paxton’s stock shot up late in the draft season, but never made it quite high enough to get into the first.
Enough about 2009, let’s see if we can do better here in 2010. First up, the best of the best. I’d call them locks if I had more of a backbone, but will instead hide behind the quotes. “Locks” it is.
2010 MLB Draft First Round “Locks”
C – Bryce Harper
1B –
2B –
SS – Christian Colon, Manny Machado, Yordy Cabrera
3B – Zack Cox, Nick Castellanos
CF –
OF – Bryce Brentz, Austin Wilson
RHP – Deck McGuire, Jesse Hahn, Anthony Ranaudo, Jameson Taillon, AJ Cole, Karsten Whitson, Dylan Covey
LHP – Drew Pomeranz, Chris Sale
I originally wanted to leave it at the locks and call it a day, but what’s the harm in stretching this out to attach 32 names to the 32 first round spots? My next set of guesses includes the following names:
SS Justin O’Conner, CF Chevy Clarke, OF Josh Sale, RHP Stetson Allie, RHP DeAndre Smelter, RHP Kaleb Cowart, RHP Kevin Gausman, RHP Matt Harvey, RHP Brandon Workman, RHP Alex Wimmers, and LHP James Paxton
17 “locks” plus the 11 new names brings us to 28 potential first rounders so far. Four more to go. Hmm. Let’s see what four names we can pull out of the old magic hat here…
College Catcher, C Stefan Sabol, CF Angelo Gumbs, RHP Cam Bedrosian
Wouldn’t it be weird if there was a draft-eligible player by the name College Catcher? It would be like my favorite player in the non-Jordan licensed NBA Live 97, Roster Player. To add to the realism, I’d always look at the R.Player in the lineup and just pretend his first name was Reggie. Anyway, College Catcher isn’t actually a real person, but if he was real than I’d mentally change his name to Charlie Catcher whenever I’d see C.Catcher in the lineup. So who will be the 2010 draft’s Charlie Catcher? Odds are good that at least one of the two big college catchers from the junior class will go in this year’s first, I think. That’s why I wimped out and hedged my bets by reserving a first round spot for “college catcher of your choosing.” Feel free to pencil in Miami’s Yasmani Grandal and/or LSU’s Micah Gibbs if that’s the direction you see things going this June. Contrarian that I am, my pick isn’t one of the two junior catchers but rather UC Riverside’s sophomore draft-eligible backstop Rob Brantly. What a twist!
Sabol is a favorite due to his strong bat and great athleticism, but I’m reminded of my fondness of Austin Maddox last year and I get a little gun-shy. Sabol is a much better athlete and runner, but the two share enough similarities with the bat to give me pause. Gumbs gets a mention for two reasons. First, and I’ll be as succinct here as possible, all five tools are first round quality. Easy enough. The second reason I’m sticking here is my belief he fits the mold of the type of player the Phillies could target at pick 27. Then again, Philadelphia’s front office recently came out and specifically mentioned third base and catcher as positions of organizational need that will be addressed this June. Bedrosian’s long been a favorite, so might as well stick with him.
The Baseball Draft Report 
Notable absence:
Sammy Solis LHP
Other than Solis I think Asher Wojciechowski RHP (The Citadel) will find himself drafted in the opening round. He has top tier stuff with much improved command. He’s got the body of a workhorse, 6-5 235(ish) and from what I’ve read his mechanics are fluid and repeatable. I think a team like the Rockies or Cardinals could pick him up late in the first round.
I agree with all of your “locks”. However, I see Yordy Cabrera as the most likely to fall out of the first, if any of them do. Behind him I’ll say… Nick Castellanos and Manny Machado (although perhaps more likely Austin Wilson with his Stanford commit).
Your next tier:
I think Smelter, Clarke and Paxton could all easily fall into the supplemental, and I had not previously heard of Gumbs–although I understand the reasoning for his inclusion. The problem for me is, I don’t have three more guys–in edition to Wojciechowski–to throw into the first round. For kicks I’ll say: Brett Eibner RHP Arkansas, Griffin Murphey LHP CA (by the Angels), Tyrell Jenkins RHP TX and Tyler Holt OF Florida State.
Your “college catcher” has a name: Yasmani Grandal
Other names that just missed for some reason or another, some mentioned in your list already:
Aaron Sanchez – Brett Eibner – Gary Brown – Asher Wojciechowski – Barret Loux – Austin Wates – Kyle Blair
***
Griffin Murphy and Tyrell Jenkins are both good names to jump into the last half of the first round. I really wanted to add a prep lefty to the list, and Murphy is as good as any I could have thought of.
Solis is a player I always find myself downgrading on lists like this because I’m afraid he is the kind of player that I love more than big league scouting directors will. I enjoyed fronting the Mike Minor bandwagon last year (overdraft? Nahhhh) and I really don’t see that big a raw stuff difference between the two lefties. Health and performance are where the two players begin to part ways, but I’d pop Solis with a pick in the 20s without hesitation. Will scouting directors agree?
You mentioned Wojciechowski as a potential target of the Rockies and Cardinals, an observation so spot on that I’m a little annoyed I didn’t think of it first. He does seem like the kind of player to sneak into the late first, a little bit like Indiana’s Eric Arnett did last year.
I refuse to budge on my Castellanos love (best bat in the high school class, I think), but will at least admit to being somewhat concerned about his eventual big league defensive future. I’d happily take him in the top half of the first round as a third baseman, but things get a little murkier for him if teams look at him as a first baseman only going forward.
Machado has the most helium of any high schooler, so I’m pretty confident he’ll be a first rounder in the end. Of course, early season high school buzz seems to almost work against some prospects at times – the big names in April aren’t always the ones left standing in June. That’s anecdotal and maybe not entirely rational, but I tend to wait and see on prep players as long as I can because they all seem like they are changing and growing at ridiculous rates.
Most likely to fall out of the first from the group of “locks” would probably be Austin Wilson. That Stanford commit is a scary, scary thing. After him, I’ll throw another curveball your way. How about Zack Cox? Haven’t heard anything at all about him returning to Arkansas, but he will have undeniable leverage as a draft-eligible sophomore if he decides to play it that way. Questions about his defense and somewhat strange offensive game (Is he a power/strikeouts guy like last year? Or was the early season change in approach – fewer extra base hits, less K’s – something to expect going forward? Or has he really found the way to combine the best of both worlds – e.g. a .600 SLG and more BB’s than K’s?) could also make him slide a bit. I don’t really believe my own argument here, but figured it’s at least worth mentioning. If not Cox, then maybe Brentz or Colon somehow slides. An influx of talented prep guys with higher defensive upsides may knock them down.
Really starting to warm up to Eibner as the spring goes on. Something about two-way players focusing on one area of their game for the first time as pros really intrigues me. Two-way guys are the new Moneyball!
I also put Kyle Blair on my just missed list. For the life of me, I can’t figure out what I’m missing with him. My notes on him:
JR RHP Kyle Blair (2010): 90-92 FB; two-seamer 86-87; plus 75-78 SL; interesting 81-83 CU; outstanding 73-75 CB; 6-3, 200 pounds; FAVORITE
Solid fastball (and a sinker to go with it), plus slider, near-plus curveball, and a changeup with real promise. What’s not to like about this guy?
Aaron Sanchez, Gary Brown and Austin Wates are guys I wouldn’t take in the first three rounds. Just my personal opinion. I think there are many more HS right-handers than Sanchez. Brown looks like a college hitter, not a pro one. While Wates is such an odd prospect, stuck at first or left field without any power… eh… I’m with you on Blair still, I just don’t think he’s had as great a season as he’s needed to solidify himself as a first round talent. Barret Loux recently reached my radar, but he’s a second rounder to me still.
I don’t think Castellanos or Machado will fall out. I was just saying if someone in your “locks” category does, it’ll be one of them depending on their asking price. Would you take Castellanos or Bobby Borchering in the same draft year? Machado befuddles me. I get the A-Rod comps. He could go with the fourth pick, he could go with the thirty-second, but I agree he goes in the first.
I’m starting to really like Eibner, which depresses me. It forces me to think about the 2007 draft… what if the Astros had Dietrich, Eibner and Chad Bettis… all of whom will be taken higher this year than the Astros took them in 2007.
Zack Cox scares me. I say this knowing that he’s a serious contender for the Astros at eight (or nineteen). Clearly, defensively he’s a third basemen (not second), but his development into an offensive enigma is alarming. I guess whether he’s a .300 hitter with a near .400 OBP and 15-20 homeruns is just as good as a .285/.335 hitter with 25-30 homeruns, right?
You list Blair with two plus (or near) secondary pitches? I’ve seen him listed with a plus curve or a plus slider, but never both. I always thought different people were calling the same pitch different things. If he really does have both the above-average curve and plus slider, I’d take him in the top half of the first.
Kyle Blair is one of my favorites, as well. The guy is just an animal, and one of my favorite things about him is that he really knows how to pitch and play the game of baseball. I read some reports that say he might fall out of the first round and some saying he won’t. It’d be a shame to see him What do you think?
“To add to the realism, I’d always look at the R.Player in the lineup and just pretend his first name was Reggie. Anyway, College Catcher isn’t actually a real person, but if he was real than I’d mentally change his name to Charlie Catcher whenever I’d see C.Catcher in the lineup. So who will be the 2010 draft’s Charlie Catcher? Odds are good that at least one of the two big college catchers from the junior class will go in this year’s first, I think. That’s why I wimped out and hedged my bets by reserving a first round spot for “college catcher of your choosing.” Feel free to pencil in Miami’s Yasmani Grandal and/or LSU’s Micah Gibbs if that’s the direction you see things going this June. Contrarian that I am, my pick isn’t one of the two junior catchers but rather UC Riverside’s sophomore draft-eligible backstop Rob Brantly.”
Can more?