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2017 MLB Draft Report – Virginia

The success of Adam Haseley this year has me kicking myself. I enjoyed writing those 2016 MLB Draft Reviews this past fall/winter a ton, so, you know, no regrets but…fine, there are always going to be some regrets. Opportunity cost is a very real thing. Spending all that time, effort, and energy on those reviews meant a later start than usual on writing about the upcoming draft. Being first in this line of “work” shouldn’t be as big a badge of honor as some make it out to be, but, why lie, there is something undeniably satisfying about being ahead of the curve on a prospect. If I would have ranked Haseley as high as I was going to back in October when I first decided he’d be a definite first rounder, I’d be sitting pretty right about now. I mean, maybe instead of being the nineteenth most influential internet baseball draft writer, I’d be eighteenth. Dare to dream, right? As it is, I’m just one of the many internet draft bros following the obvious trend that puts Haseley at or near the top of his position group. Kidding aside, at the end of the day as long as a great player like Haseley gets his due, I’m happy. All of the praise he’s gotten this spring is very well deserved. My ego will live to fight another day.

As for Haseley the actual draft prospect, my only question now is how high he can rise. I know I’m going to have him really, really high on my personal college draft rankings, but the decision on how high is still, pardon the pun, up in the air. I’m not 100% sure just yet, but it would seem awfully hard to justify any other college outfielder ahead of him at this point. Few players in the college game can match Haseley’s combination of hit tool (legit plus, a rarity at this level), raw power (above-average to all fields), and defensive future (sure-fire center fielder at the next level). There are some that can rival his upside in each individual area, but it’s the overall package in one player that makes Haseley stand out. To be as good as he is in the three most critical areas of the game is rare, and his speed and arm (both at least above-average for me) are pretty impressive in their own right. I get that he’s taken his game to another level in 2017, but acting like he’s come out of nowhere couldn’t be further from the truth. Dude hit .304/.377/.502 last year with 28 BB/28 K. So you’re not only getting the tools but also a lengthy track record to back it up. Or vice-versa (i.e., he’s more than just a college star but also a super projectable pro athlete) depending on where your scouting vs stats allegiances lie. It’s not a direct comparison per se, but watching Haseley in 2017 makes me think about what Mickey Moniak might have looked like after a couple of years at UCLA. Superstar upside.

Virginia being Virginia means that they not only have arguably the top outfielder in this class but also the top first baseman. That’s where I currently have Pavin Smith, the Cavaliers sweet-swinging junior slugger. Much like Haseley, the first thing to stand out about Smith is the hit tool. Smith has everything it takes to hit .300 or better in the big leagues. With above-average to plus raw power and a fantastic approach at the plate, he’s one of my favorite bats in this class. More on him from a few days ago…

As for Smith, I’m still not really sure what he doesn’t do well. It’s a true plus hit tool with a picture perfect swing, outstanding plate coverage, and standout pitch recognition. His raw power is above-average to plus and already showing up in games. He’s a well above-average glove at first with enough athleticism and arm strength (88-93 FB pre-TJ surgery) to at least give some teams pause when considering his long-term defensive position. Seriously, what’s not to like about him as an offensive player?

If we wanted to nitpick — and we DO — then it’s worth pointing out that there have been some whispers about less than ideal bat speed. Fine, I guess. I struggle with identifying bat speed outside of the extremes, so I’m happy to tip my cap to anybody who can tag a guy with an above- or below-average swing of the bat using only the naked eye. I can’t, so I try not to judge. Can’t say I’ve noticed anything all that remarkable — good or bad — about Smith’s bat speed, and at some point his outstanding three years of hitting high-level amateur pitching should win out anyway. It’s the current Rowdy Tellez argument manifesting itself in college ball. I like Tellez. I like Smith.

I’ve also heard some BASEBALL MEN chatter about Virginia hitters struggling to adjust to pro ball. Can’t say I really buy that one, though I suppose the murderer’s row of Phil Gosselin, Jarrett Parker, John Hicks, and Chris Taylor haven’t exactly lit the world on fire in the pros. Brandon Guyer, Ryan Zimmerman, and Mark Reynolds give the Cavaliers a little more clout, but that’s going way back. I remember liking guys like Tyler Cannon, Dan Grovatt, Steve Proscia, Stephen Bruno, and Reed Gragnani with little to nothing to show for it in terms of pro success. Mike Papi, Derek Fisher, and Daniel Pinero seem primed to turn the reputation around…if you think the reputation needed turning around in the first place. And then there’s this guy…

.338/.427/.518 with 74 BB/55 K and 4/5 SB in 554 AB
.323/.394/.515 with 78 BB/68 K and 5/12 SB in 637 AB

Top is Matt Thaiss’s career numbers at Virginia. Those were good enough to get him selected sixteenth overall last year. Bottom is what Smith has done so far. Feels like there’s a comparison to be made between the two hitters in there somewhere. Like Thaiss last year, mid-first round feels like a fair landing spot for Smith as of now.

No player was harder for me to rank on the position lists than Ernie Clement. The guy is just a weird prospect. That’s of course meant in the most flattering way possible. Clement excels at things that don’t typically get much scouting buzz except from the super old-school types. He’s among the best in the country at spoiling pitchers’s pitches, bunting both for hits and to move teammates over, and, above all else, making insane amounts of contact. Defensively, he’s great just about anywhere you put him. Response was split as to his best long-term position with half preferring him at second and the rest thinking he’d be best in center. Most agreed that he could even play a good shortstop if asked. Such defensive versatility opens up a whole world of fun comps for the weird and wonderful Clement.

I had to look it up to see if I have ever used David Eckstein as a comp before — for the curious, yes, once, Tyler Hanover — because I think it really fits Clement well. Eckstein with better speed feels about right. I’ve also heard Fernando Vina and Eric Young. Baseball America has offered Chris Taylor in the past. Interesting group on the whole. I’ll stick with speedier Eckstein for now. Just yesterday I got a Jose Peraza for him. I don’t hate that at all. Something on that spectrum would be a fine outcome for Clement, a high-floor prospect as a future utility guy with a ceiling limited much beyond that due to his serious lack of pop. Figuring out where to properly rate such a weird player like this is above my current pay grade.

(My goal was to use the word weird five times when describing Clement. Three will have to do. Until next time…)

Somebody shut me up before I write an extra thousand words about the rest of Virginia’s 2017 draft-eligible hitters. The short version: Robbie Coman, Charlie Cody, and even Caleb Knight all have flashed enough ability to warrant pro consideration this June. Coman is easy to like as a steady glove with a veteran’s approach to hitting. His arm strength, not particularly special to begin with, was sapped by last year’s Tommy John surgery, so he’ll have to prove to teams he has enough mustard on his throws to keep catching as a pro. Cody is a huge personal favorite who has his best ball ahead of him. DID YOU KNOW that Perfect Game once compared him to David Wright as a prep prospect? Pretty heady praise. He’s played intermittently through two and half years at Virginia, but a really strong start to 2017 has me all-in on the Charlie Cody bandwagon once again. Hope on that bandwagon while there’s still space left. I’m by no means an expert on Knight, but all the quiet buzz I’ve heard on him has been positive. Catchers who can stay catchers and can hit a bit will always get love from me, and Knight is no exception.

I like Justin Novak as a potential low-minors chess piece that can be moved all over the infield. I talk often about the utility of such players and Novak seems like a potentially useful one. Guys who can multiple spots like Novak can help protect other prospects by filling in defensively as needed. It also doesn’t hurt to show teams you have a diversified defensive skill set when it comes to making you more marketable, especially in the age of tiny benches.

I’m not sure why Tommy Doyle doesn’t get more love as one of the draft’s top college pitchers. Maybe it’s his usage out of the bullpen at Virginia that obscures the fact he’s got everything you’d want in an innings-eating big league starting pitcher. It’s not wise to chase the reliever to starter waterfall — former Cavaliers Nick Howard, Josh Sborz, and Branden Kline being three such recent flops — but Doyle has the stuff (88-94 FB with sink, 95-96 sink; 77-81 CB, flashes average; above-average 82-87 cut-SL; above-average split-CU) and frame (6-6, 225) to make the move. Whether or not he has the delivery or command remain open questions, but I think an early round pick on finding out firsthand is worth the investment. I’m of the opinion that just about any Virginia pitcher needs some mechanical tweaking anyway (hate the crouch), so knowing you’ve got a little work to do with his windup shouldn’t come as a surprise. Bet on the stuff, body, and results, and figure out the delivery later, I say.

(I did the UVA prospects in the pros thing for the hitters when I wrote about Pavin Smith a few days ago, so I won’t go into too much detail with the pitchers…but the recent track record of Virginia arms does not inspire much confidence. There have been 22 Cavalier pitchers drafted since 2009. Only three players [Tyler Wilson, Kyle Crockett, Kline] out of 22 [13.6%] have reached the big leagues. Not great.)

Pitchers besides Doyle looking to buck that parenthetical trend include Alec Bettinger, Jack Roberts, Derek Casey, and Bennett Sousa. Count me as a big fan of all of them. Bettinger is a personal favorite senior-sign with a potent sinker/slider mix and experience as a multi-inning reliever. His peripherals have always outstripped his run prevention ability, but smart teams will focus on all the positives he brings to the mound rather than the negatives (many of which are out of his control). From my notes on Roberts: “getting wild ways under control…but still pretty wild.” Seems fair for a guy with BB/9’s of 7.50, 8.86, and 6.29 over the last three seasons. When he throws strikes, his stuff (87-92 heat, 94 peak; average breaking ball, flashes better; average change) impresses. Casey flashes similar stuff along with far better control made all the more significant considering he’s on the road back from Tommy John surgery. Sousa is a lefty with above-average velocity (90-94) and a low-80s slider with serious promise. Can’t hate that.

*****

JR RHP Tommy Doyle (2017)
SR RHP Alec Bettinger (2017)
rSO LHP Riley Wilson (2017)
SR RHP Tyler Shambora (2017)
rJR RHP Jack Roberts (2017)
rSO RHP Derek Casey (2017)
JR LHP Bennett Sousa (2017)
JR OF/LHP Adam Haseley (2017)
JR 1B/OF Pavin Smith (2017)
JR 2B/OF Ernie Clement (2017)
JR SS/2B Justin Novak (2017)
rSR C Robbie Coman (2017)
JR 3B/OF Charlie Cody (2017)
JR C Caleb Knight (2017)
SO LHP Daniel Lynch (2018)
rFR RHP Evan Sperling (2018)
SO RHP Grant Donahue (2018)
SO LHP Connor Eason (2018)
SO RHP Chesdin Harrington (2018)
SO OF/RHP Cameron Simmons (2018)
SO 3B/1B Nate Eikhoff (2018)
SO C Cameron Comer (2018)
rFR OF Jake McCarthy (2018)
SO 2B/SS Andy Weber (2018)
FR RHP Noah Murdock (2019)
FR RHP Bobby Nicholson (2019)
FR SS Cayman Richardson (2019)
FR OF Jalen Harrison (2019)
FR C Drew Blakely (2019)

2017 MLB Draft Report – Pittsburgh

Hard to say at this point how strong Pittsburgh is from a prospect perspective, but, man, are a lot of the notable players on this roster off to really good starts in 2017. Could be a case of a team with a lot of good college players overachieving, but it makes me wonder a bit if I should start asking around more about guys like Sam Mersing, Josh Mitchell, Josh Falk, and Matt Pidich. All have been good to start the season. The two guys I have exciting notes on — Isaac Mattson and Blair Calvo — both seem draft-worthy from here. Mattson is a control artist with solid stuff (88-92 FB, good CB) and consistently strong peripherals. Calvo is out in 2017 with a knee injury, but has a pair of pitches (90-95 FB, average SL) that should play well in pro ball even after missing these important developmental innings.

Liam Sabino should have “Vanderbilt transfer” listed prominently on his bio as that’s presently the most intriguing thing about him. That’s not a knock on Sabino, a talented guy with speed, athleticism, and plenty of defensive aptitude, but rather praise for Vanderbilt…and, fine, maybe a little bit of a knock on Sabino’s limited college experience to date. If he can get on the field, he could rise quickly. PJ DeMeo has ample power and considerable swing-and-miss. I like what I’ve seen so far out of Caleb Parry and am eager to learn more about him, especially defensively. Frank Maldonado and Jacob Wright both could eventually get opportunities as senior-signs down the line. Parry, Maldonado, and Wright all belong with the group of overachieving pitchers mentioned above as “hmm, maybe this guys are better than I thought” types. Both Maldonado and Wright are well-rounded overall players with disciplined approaches at the plate. Those in the know have pointed me towards Nick Banman as Pittsburgh’s top 2017 bat. His size and power are certainly eye-catching, so gathering more info about him will be a priority this spring.

*****

JR RHP Isaac Mattson (2017)
JR RHP Blair Calvo (2017)
SR RHP Sam Mersing (2017)
rJR LHP Josh Mitchell (2017)
rJR RHP Matt Pidich (2017)
SR RHP Josh Falk (2017)
JR 1B/3B Nick Banman (2017)
rJR OF Frank Maldonado (2017)
rSR OF Jacob Wright (2017)
JR 3B/1B Kaylor Kulina (2017)
rJR C Caleb Parry (2017)
SR 1B/3B PJ DeMeo (2017)
SR C Manny Pazos (2017)
rSO SS Liam Sabino (2017)
rFR RHP Derek West (2018)
SO RHP Tyler Garbee (2018)
SO RHP Collin Liberatore (2018)
SO RHP/OF Yaya Chentouf (2018)
SO SS/2B David Yanni (2018)
FR RHP Dan Hammer (2019)
FR LHP Peyton Reesman (2019)
FR RHP RJ Freure (2019)
FR OF Nico Popa (2019)
FR 1B Zach Zientarksi (2019)
FR 2B Alex Amos (2019)

2017 MLB Draft Report – Notre Dame

Much to the chagrin of my wife, I take in anywhere between two to four games per week from the start of the amateur season here (mid-March) right up until the end (late-May). Fine, this isn’t entirely true; the old lady is super supportive and actually likes going games to me, but that’s not as fun as portraying her as the stereotypical ball-and-chain. The editor says it makes me more relatable the original way, so it stays. Anyway, I like baseball and try to see as much live action as humanly possible. That’s a good thing for this site…except when it isn’t. The aim here was never to provide a steady stream of firsthand game stories and personal observations. Those are great, of course, but one man attempting to cover an entire country’s worth of amateur prospects that way was never going to fly. The plan was always to read as much as physically possible, reach out to old contacts within the game (and make new ones along the way) to crosscheck, and, sure, see a ton of live baseball, for reasons both business and pleasure, along the way. Eventually enough of those primary, secondary, and tertiary sources add up to something worthwhile to share with fellow baseball obsessives. Hopefully.

Besides having to work through issues of narrowing my focus too drastically at the expense of broader draft interests, the downside to seeing players in person is falling in love with guys despite the better judgment of all other inputs. Calling it a downside is a little harsh; seeing players up close and forming opinions about what they could be is what is fun about being a wannabe scout on the internet. It can, however, get you into trouble when the overarching goal is to be as objective as possible in an otherwise highly subjective world. I saw Kyle Fiala as a freshman and was so thoroughly impressed with his skill set that I haven’t shut up about him since. This made me look pretty smart his first season, smarter yet his sophomore year, and utterly foolish in what should have been his triumphant draft year in 2016. Things haven’t gotten much better early on in 2017. I’d still think about Fiala really late on draft day since it’s worth a shot to see if he can rekindle that sophomore year magic. That’s both the good and the bad of seeing players up close. It’s unfortunate that I maybe got a little carried away in my initial viewing of Fiala and maybe overrated him the last few years because of it…but it’s kind of nice that I have that memory of a pretty damn talented guy that I’d still be willing to bang the table for even as his numbers suggest he’s a non-prospect.

As with Fiala, I was happily on board the Ryan Lidge bandwagon after a successful 2015 season. Pretty much nothing has gone right since. I also really liked Jake Shepski coming into the season. Best not to look at his current numbers if you still want to believe I know what I’m talking about. Maybe I should stop liking guys on Notre Dame for the greater good. If any fans of the team want to take up a collection for me to start publicly trashing their players instead, let me know. It’ll have to wait until next season, however, since their pitching is pretty damn exciting.

Peter Solomon, Brandon Bielak, and Brad Bass give Notre Dame three hard throwing righthanders capable of hitting the mid- to upper-90s. Knowing where those mid- to upper-90s fastballs are going once they leave the hand is an entirely different thing altogether. Solomon, a favorite of many, is a classic case of a young pitcher with too much natural movement for his own good. Nothing he throws is straight, a blessing for a veteran but a curse for most younger pitchers. A bet on Solomon is a bet on him finding a way to harness his explosive his stuff professionally in a way he’s never consistently shown as an amateur. Even with his wild ways, there was a point early on last summer when Solomon looked like a sure-fire first round pick. From a stuff, body, and projection standpoint, that’s exactly what he is. I’d personally be scared to death to take him there (and, for what it’s worth, I felt the same way even as he was blowing up on the Cape), but a subsequent late-summer fade and an inconsistent start to his junior season have almost certainly knocked him out of that range. Now the idea of picking a guy with his kind of premium arm talent past the top hundred picks (give or take) roll by is one I can excitedly get behind. If that feels a little prospect hipster-y, then so be it. When everybody really liked him, I thought his flaws were being glossed over too readily. Now that his prospect buzz has died down significantly, I think where he wins is overlooked. It’ll take a lot of work in pro ball, but an unhittable 88-94 MPH (96 peak) fastball with even a modicum of command combined with two legitimate breaking balls that can flash plus (emphasis on can and flash) and a decent diving 81-86 MPH changeup is a heck of a starting point for your player development staff to work with. If you trust your coaches, Solomon should be a target. If not, leave him for a team that does.

Bielak is wild like Solomon with a tick less impressive stuff across the board. That’s not a knock on Bielak, a legitimate four-pitch pitcher in his own right; Solomon’s stuff is just that good. Bielak has enough of a changeup to start professionally with real mid-rotation upside. Bass feels like the most natural reliever of the trio. Big (6-6, 240), fast (90-95 FB, 97 peak), and sharp (above-average 81-85 SL, flashes plus) plays well in short bursts. He has a softer breaking ball and will throw an occasional change, so maybe a team buys him as good enough to remain in the rotation going forward. In either role, count me in as a big fan. I like all three pitchers depending on when you can get them on draft day. If that’s not a super obvious statement, I’m not sure what is. Still think it has some merit, though: I’m just ballparking rounds here, but Solomon in the second, Bielak in the third, and Bass in the fourth all feel about right to me in terms of relative value.

Evy Ruibal has enough fastball/breaking ball to get a look, especially at his size (6-4, 225). Sean Guenther has similar heat (88-92, 93 peak) with a more well-rounded arsenal. He lacks Ruibal’s clear go-to secondary pitch and certainly can’t match him pound for pound (he’s 5-11, 200), so it’ll be interesting to see what ultimately wins out on draft day. Do you like the short lefty with the longer track record and deep assortment of offspeed stuff or the sturdy righthander with the better breaking ball but more inconsistent results? I like to pretend that the results of the MLB Draft act as some sort of referendum on player types, but hopefully we all realize that’s not the case. The old adage “it only takes one team…” to fall in love with a guy is true. Maybe 29 teams have Player B higher on their board, but that one remaining team prefers Player A…and they get the chance to pick first. Or something like that. I don’t know where I was going with that exactly. Chances are decent that the Ruibal/Guenther “debate” I’ve manufactured in this paragraph will live on another year. Both guys could fit better as 2018 senior-signs…unless that one team out there likes them enough to make the call, of course.

“Crazy wild” is a line right from my notes on Ryan Smoyer. I still like him — one man’s crazy wild is another’s effectively wild — and think his changeup is a good enough pitch to get him deserved pro attention. I know some who feel the same way about Michael Hearne, a mid-80s lefty with standout control. Effectively wild righty with a pro-ready build or the command/control undersized lefty? Feels familiar…

*****

JR RHP Peter Solomon (2017)
JR RHP Brandon Bielak (2017)
JR RHP Brad Bass (2017)
rSR LHP Michael Hearne (2017)
SR RHP Ryan Smoyer (2017)
SR LHP Scott Tully (2017)
JR LHP Sean Guenther (2017)
JR RHP Charlie Vorscheck (2017)
JR RHP Evy Ruibal (2017)
JR OF/RHP Jake Shepski (2017)
SR 2B/SS Kyle Fiala (2017)
SR C Ryan Lidge (2017)
JR OF Jake Johnson (2017)
SO RHP Jack Connolly (2018)
SO OF/RHP Matt Vierling (2018)
rFR OF Eric Feliz (2018)
SO 3B Jake Singer (2018)
SO 3B/1B Nick Podkul (2018)
SO 3B/SS Cole Daily (2018)
FR RHP Zack Martin (2019)
FR LHP Cameron Brown (2019)
FR RHP Anthony Holubecki (2019)
FR INF Michael Feliz (2019)
FR INF Nick Neville (2019)
FR 3B/C Connor Power (2019)
FR 1B/OF Daniel Jung (2019)

2017 MLB Draft Report – North Carolina State

I have notes on twelve different draft-eligible North Carolina state pitching prospects. Let’s put them into groups for easier readability…

Tim Naughton
Karl Keglovits
Nolan Clenney

Naughton has late-inning reliever stuff (94-97 FB, mid-80s SL that flashes plus), but needs innings. Keglovits is a fifth-year senior who feels like a tenth-year senior. He could be a sinker/slider/splitter type if he could ever stay healthy. That’s exactly what Clenney is (minus the splitter)…or that’s what we assume he’d be if he was currently pitching.

Cody Beckman
Brian Brown
Cory Wilder
Evan Brabrand
Tommy DeJuneas

The five names above are the wild bunch so far in 2017. Beckman has the three pitches needed to be a quality college starter or multi-inning fireman, but control has been his bugaboo. Brown, a pitcher with plus command once compared by D1 as a “lefty Preston Morrison,” being included here is odd, but a 5.96 BB/9 is a 5.96 BB/9. I still like Brown a lot as another of this class’s many crafty lefties — he’s got the command, mid-80s heat, and above-average to plus mid-70s changeup to qualify — so I’ll be watching closely to see if he can turn around his small sample size mojo. Wilder has great stuff, but a lack of control is unfortunately nothing new for him. Brabrand has the fastball (88-93) and slider (average or better at 82-84) to be a mid-round relief prospect if he throw more strikes. DeJuneas reminds me a little bit of the pitching version of some of the Wolfpack’s toolsy yet frustrating hitting prospects. He’s slowed down his stuff to improve his command/control, but I’d rather him let it fly in the mid- to upper-90s like the good old days and let the chips fall where they may.

Sean Adler
Joe O’Donnell
Johnny Piedmonte
Austin Staley

Hey, these guys have all been pretty good so far this year! Sean Adler is yet another crafty lefty (upper-80s fastball, three usable offspeed pitches, hides the ball well) with the added twist of being effectively wild over his career. Like DeJuneas, O’Donnell’s fastball has lost a little heat over the years. He’s more upper-80s now, but he’s retained his quality breaking ball and decent command. I could see him being a high priority senior-sign for some teams, but there are other money-savers out there I prefer. One such guy would be Johnny Piedmonte, the 6-8, 240 pounder with a shot at middle relief at the next level. Austin Staley’s stuff is standard enough (88-91 FB, good 78 breaker) that he may get lost in the shuffle, but he’s been pretty consistently above-average since first getting regular work last season. I like him.

Only two members of the Wolfpack’s lineup (as of this writing) have more walks than strikeouts. Those two players are both slugging under .300. Taken together, that goes down as a bit of an auspicious start to the 2017 season for North Carolina’s big-name hitting prospects. I really liked Evan Mendoza coming into the year as a legit third base prospect with the chance for an average hit tool and above-average raw power. I still like him, but he’s got some serious work to do to climb out of his early season hole. I’ve always been lukewarm on Joe Dunand, a tooled-up left side of the infield standout (shortstop for some, third base for me) with a prospect stock built more on projection than present ability. Dunand will flash big power, impressive defensive tools, and elite athleticism, but he still has a ways to go as a hitter. It’s a boom/bust profile that will either make a scouting director look like a genius or a dope.

Josh McLain operates a little bit like the an outfield version of Dunand. He can run and defend with the best of this class, but offensively has shown only flashes to this point. Same goes for Brock Deatherage. Opportunities are there for talented players like Shane Shepard (power bat at first), Stephen Pitarra (versatile glove, competent bat), and Andy Cosgrove (should be able to stick behind plate) to rise up within their respective position rankings if they can turn around their springs. That’s kind of the overall theme for the North Carolina State team at this point. There’s talent there and I could easily see some of these guys being better pros than college performers, but identifying who/when/why/how is a headache.

*****

rJR LHP Cody Beckman (2017)
rSO RHP Tim Naughton (2017)
JR LHP Brian Brown (2017)
SR RHP Cory Wilder (2017)
rSR LHP Sean Adler (2017)
SR RHP Joe O’Donnell (2017)
rSR RHP Johnny Piedmonte (2017)
rSR RHP Karl Keglovits (2017)
JR RHP Evan Brabrand (2017)
JR RHP Nolan Clenney (2017)
rSO RHP Austin Staley (2017)
JR RHP/1B Tommy DeJuneas (2017)
JR 3B Evan Mendoza (2017)
JR 3B/SS Joe Dunand (2017)
JR OF Josh McLain (2017)
JR OF Brock Deatherage (2017)
JR 1B/OF Shane Shepard (2017)
JR 2B Stephen Pitarra (2017)
rJR OF Garrett Suggs (2017)
JR C Andy Cosgrove (2017)
FR RHP Dalton Feeney (2018)
SO RHP Christian Demby (2018)
SO OF Brett Kinneman (2018)
SO C Jack Conley (2018)
FR RHP Michael Bienlien (2019)
FR RHP Mathieu Gauthier (2019)
FR LHP James Ferguson (2019)
FR RHP James Vaughn (2019)
FR C Brad Debo (2019)
FR SS Will Wilson (2019)
FR OF EP Reese (2019)

2017 MLB Draft Report – North Carolina

JB Bukauskas is the best 2017 draft-eligible college starting pitching in the country. That may have qualified as a hot take — or at least a warm one — if I had published it over the offseason when the thought first entered my mind, but I have to imagine the rest of the industry is now on board with the idea that Bukauskas, all 6-0, 200 pounds of him, is the real deal. What more does a guy need to do to take over that top spot? Bukauskas was good as a freshman, great as a sophomore, and has been otherworldly so far as a junior. His fastball is an easy plus pitch (91-96, 97-98 peak), his plus to plus-plus 82-89 MPH slider is the best of its kind in this class, and his changeup, appropriately underused against overmatched college competition, has above-average upside. From a stuff standpoint, he checks every box. So what’s the catch? Or is there one? Let’s explore.

When just about the only negative you can say about a guy is that he isn’t quite as tall as you’d like, then he must be pretty good. I don’t mean to be flip, either. Size matters a little bit — there are fair questions about durability, fastball plane, and a lack of historical success for shorter pitchers — but only a little bit. If Bukauskas had the size thing working against him AND another clear question mark surrounding his game, I could see cause for potential concern. But there are literally no non-nitpicky questions about him as a prospect right now outside of his frame. Maybe the delivery? I don’t see much in the way of inconsistencies in how he repeats it, but your mileage might vary.

I feel like I missed on Marcus Stroman even though I ranked him 18th when he went on to be drafted 22nd. Being light on him as long as I was — the summer into his junior year I was comparing him to Kelvim Escobar, Al Alburquerque, and Fautino De Los Santos — taught me a lesson. It even inspired a post a few months later that just so happens to lead us right back to Bukauskas’s prospect stock. The two names mentioned in that post: Stroman (my comp) and Lance McCullers (Perfect Game’s excellent comp). A pitching prospect on that same tier is what you’re buying in Bukauskas. That’s a top ten guy, maybe top five, and, if something happens to Hunter Greene between now and mid-June, a dark horse 1-1 contender.

Trevor Gay and Hansen Butler both need innings, but are more than talented enough to warrant serious draft consideration in June. Gay is a really funky sidearmer who can muster up serious fastball sink to go along with a low-80s slider that flashes plus. Butler is undersized, but damn good when healthy and at his best. “Good yet overlooked” is in my notes on Brett Daniels. I’m a sucker for a good changeup, so my affection for Daniels should make sense. Jason Morgan has a good firm (82-87) changeup of his own plus a pair of average offspeed pitches on top of it (75-81 true breaking ball, 80-85 cut-slider). It also doesn’t hurt that he looks the part at 6-6, 215 pounds.

When jotting quick notes about spring performances down for each 2017 draft-eligible prospect, I’ll write whatever word comes to mind. It’s my own game of free association. Logan Warmoth and Brian Miller got the same one word note: “stud.” With the bar already sky high for both returning stars, Warmoth and Miller have found a way to exceed expectations in the early going of 2017. Their individual production has been stellar, but it’s the scouting buzz both young men have received that has advanced their prospect stock in a major way this spring. I won’t go this far with Warmoth, but a source I trust has told me that he’s the closest thing he’s seen to Alex Bregman since Alex Bregman. True, Bregman has only been out of college for one full season, but the sentiment is understood. Warmoth is a surprisingly polarizing player that clearly has big fans as well as a small yet vocal (to me) group of detractors. Both sides seem to agree that there’s little to no doubting his offensive game at this point. Warmoth is a proven commodity with the stick, hitting for tons of hard line drive contact and legitimate over the fence pop going on fourteen months now. The debate on Warmoth is focused more on his athletic profile and long-term best fit defensively. I’ve gotten grades on his run times to first ranging from 45 to 60 with every increment in between showing up at least once. There is similar uncertainty about his arm strength; some have it as more than enough for the left side of the infield while others see it as the clear reason why second base makes the most sense for him sooner rather than later.

I’d personally mark him off as a slightly above-average hit, average raw power (touch less in-game), average to above-average runner, average thrower, and average (maybe a tick more) defender. That’s a monster prospect at shortstop and a damn near elite one at second. Once you factor in his extended track record of success against high-level amateur pitching and the loads of positive chatter about his work ethic, it’s easy to see why many are calling him a first round lock. Maybe the Bregman comp isn’t as far off as I first thought…

Brian Miller is another premium Tar Heel prospect with a fun mix of athleticism and skills. I’m more bullish on his physical profile than most — like Warmoth, you’ll see his speed range from above-average all the way up to plus-plus — and think he grades out very similarly to his middle infield counterpart across the board. Above-average hit, average raw power (some like it a bit more, so I could still be swayed), plus speed, average arm, and above-average center field range all add up to another potential North Carolina first round pick. That’s three so far if you’re scoring at home. This team is really damn good.

Zack Gahagan is yet another divisive prospect with some defensive questions that will need to be answered in pro ball. Is he a second baseman or a third baseman? Will his plus raw power ever translate to anything more than average in-game production? Does he have the approach to profile as a regular? All open questions at the moment. Kyle Datres is a FAVORITE for his wide array of above-average to plus tools. Like every other position player profiled already, Datres does everything well with no clear weaknesses in his game. As much as I like Warmoth, I could see a case for Datres, an easy plus athlete, being the better long-term investment for a team willing to buy him out of his last two years of college. I’m not yet ready to make that case and the few smart people I’ve ran the idea by all said I was nuts (also, for the record, they all said they expect him back in Chapel Hill next year), but it’s a strong enough hunch that I’ll be following the two guys extra closely these next two months.

As of this writing, Adam Pate has one of the weirder early season lines you’ll ever see: .056/.414/.056 with 11 BB/5 K. 88% of his OPS is tied to his OBP. Wacky stuff. If we look past the odd start, we can see that Pate is a solid senior-sign potential backup outfielder in the pros. He runs well, has a plus arm, and can go get it in center. His understanding of the strike zone and willingness to take what is given at the plate even in the face of (small sample) offensive struggles is another nice perk to his game. Fellow senior outfielder Tyler Lynn is a FAVORITE from last season. He was more good than great in his first year as a Tar Heel, but has stepped his game up this spring. I’m buying his bat in a big way. Lynn is one of the nation’s best potential senior-signs.

I didn’t realize that Cody Roberts was an age-eligible sophomore back when I was putting that list of top 2017 MLB Draft catching prospectslist of top 2017 MLB Draft catching prospects together. Roberts is a phenomenal athlete with a great arm and a bat that finally seems to be catching up to his glove. He’s my type of catching prospect. It’s a really interesting year for college catching and the addition of Roberts name into the mix makes it that much more exciting.

*****

JR RHP JB Bukauskas (2017)
JR RHP Jason Morgan (2017)
JR RHP Hansen Butler (2017)
JR RHP Brett Daniels (2017)
rSO RHP Trevor Gay (2017)
SO C/RHP Cody Roberts (2017)
JR 2B/SS Logan Warmoth (2017)
JR OF Brian Miller (2017)
JR 3B/SS Zack Gahagan (2017)
SR OF Adam Pate (2017)
SO 3B Kyle Datres (2017)
SR OF Tyler Lynn (2017)
FR RHP Austin Bergner (2018)
SO RHP Taylor Sugg (2018)
SO RHP Cole Aker (2018)
rFR RHP Josh Hiatt (2018)
SO RHP Rodney Hutchison (2018)
SO SS Utah Jones (2018)
SO OF Brandon Riley (2018)
SO C Brendan Illies (2018)
SO OF Josh Ladowski (2018)
FR RHP Tyler Baum (2019)
FR RHP Luca Dalatri (2019)
FR RHP Robbie Peto (2019)
FR RHP Bo Weiss (2019)
FR LHP Zach Attianese (2019)
FR C Brandon Martorano (2019)
FR 2B/SS Ike Freeman (2019)
FR 1B Michael Busch (2019)
FR OF Laney Orr (2019)
FR 3B/2B Ashton McGee (2019)
FR RHP Evan Odum (2019)

2017 MLB Draft – College First Basemen (Top 10)

I’m down on this year’s college hitting class on the whole, but you really wouldn’t know it based on the first two positions previewed. We took care of the catchers a few weeks back; that group is admittedly more of a list of personal favorites rather than guys I genuinely believe will crash the top one hundred pick party. First base, however, looks pretty damn loaded to me. A strong emphasis on up-the-middle defenders has caused fans and front office types alike to reevaluate the relative importance of big bats confined to first base. This is a pretty easy concept to grasp, but since I knew it felt familiar writing about it — pretty sure I do this every year — and took the time to look it up, here’s a true blast from the past on the topic from almost six (!) whole years ago…

What I think I’ve always been fascinated about with respect to first base prospects is the high stakes gamble that comes with taking a first baseman early on draft day. If your athletic five-tool up-the-middle draft prospect doesn’t hit as expected, you’ve still got — wait, let me get my calculator — four tools, including defense and the ancillary positional value boost, remaining. If your first base prospect doesn’t hit (and hit a ton), then you’re left with nothing but regret.

Snappy writing! Here’s a guy on the internet talking to himself again, this time from May 2013…

Taking shots on bat-first guys in those rounds [5-10] has always been a favorite draft practice of mine. All things being equal you’d rather have a toolsy, athletic prospect perched atop the defensive chain (C/SS/CF), but those guys aren’t always hanging around in the middle rounds waiting to be signed easily. Bringing in a handful of guys you know can hit in every draft seems like a smart idea as well. Drafting is such an inexact science/art that you can’t point to any one player as the model prospect for a given strategy, but I’m going to do it anyway. The Diamondbacks drafted the tenth college first baseman off the board in 2008 with pick 246 in the eighth round. Paul Goldschmidt could never hit another ball hard for the rest of his career — spoiler: that won’t happen — and they would still have gotten tremendous value for the pick. Heck, move up a few rounds and you’ll find Brandon Belt to the Giants in the fifth. There are equal and opposite examples that knock down the argument a bit — still waiting on AJ Kirby-Jones to hit — but too often college first basemen are knocked unfairly as throwaway picks outside of the first few rounds. There will always be a need for guys who can hit. These guys can hit.

Good call on Goldschmidt not immediately retiring after finishing that post. Was holding my breath on that one. Once more from March 2014…

College first basemen are some of the most difficult players to rank this early in the draft process because, of any amateur position, first base is the spot I utilize data almost as much as scouting reports. There are many things to look for in young batters when it comes to projecting the hit and power tool; for starters, you’re looking for swing mechanics (balance, rotation, gather, load, fluidity, repeatability, etc.), vision (tracking pitches), bat to ball contact (cliché or not, there is a unique sound you’re hoping to hear), bat speed, and, one of my biggest things for power, how well the hitter’s upper and lower body work together. Seeing and hearing about these things is vitally important, but, more so than any other tools (and to paraphrase national treasure Rasheed Wallace), bat don’t lie. If you can hit, your production will reflect it.

I stand by this today. Too many like to bust on people who “scout the box scores,” but, you know what, you can learn a whole heck of a lot based on information found in box scores. Those box scores reflect real world events that actually happened on a baseball field. You can’t learn everything from them, of course, but I’m not sure anybody is arguing that. I’d still bet if you found a list of most productive college hitters and adjusted for park/schedule/age, those players would stack up really well with either draft position, professional success, or both. This gets trickier the more you begin to factor in the aspects of scouting that aren’t reflected in a basic box score (i.e., this would work a lot better for one-dimensional sluggers than five-tool athletes at premium defensive spots), but I think using on-field performance indicators as a starting point (if nothing else) makes sense. ANYWAY, last one from December 2015 back when I had my act together and was posting real draft thoughts six months ahead of the big day rather than two…

(This may totally undercut the previous point, but it’s crazy enough to me that I don’t mind. You want the list of first day college first basemen taken since I started the site back in 2009? We’ve got Chris Shaw, Casey Gillaspie, CJ Cron, and…that’s it. Three guys in seven drafts. That probably shouldn’t amaze me, but it does. As we’ve repeated already, many first basemen are made and not born. College first day guys who can also handle and may eventually play 1B full-time include Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, and Stephen Piscotty. I think all can be corner outfielders at worst, but reasonable minds may disagree. If you’re feeling kind you could also add Bryce Brentz, Kyle Parker, and Michael Choice to that list. I’m not sure I see a future big league first baseman of worth out of that trio, but you never know, right? I suppose the point here is that recent historical trends point towards college first basemen lasting longer than one might think. Or maybe it’s a coincidence based on the fact that we’ve had an unusually underwhelming group of college sluggers in this time frame. Or maybe it’s an arbitrary endpoints thing. Who knows!)

Embarrassing confession time: I don’t know how many picks constitute the “first day” of the draft. Does it change year to year? It must. Do the rounds they televise change? Or is it always the first two? Does that include the supplemental second round? After an exhausting thirty seconds of trying my best to remember, I still wasn’t 100% sure. Thankfully, it’s 2017 and Google exists, so SB Nation to the rescue. I am glad I double-checked rather than just relying on memory — probably would have gone first round and comp picks only — because we can now add 2016 second rounder Pete Alonso to the list. That’s four guys in eight drafts. Will Craig could be the fifth guy, but Baseball Reference has him listed as a 3B on their draft page so that’s that. If I expand my list to Top 100 picks, then we can add AJ Reed, Sam Travis, Daniel Palka, Alex Dickerson, Rich Poythress, Tyler Townsend, and Ben Paulsen to the list. Those last three, all taken in the top 100 — top 90 if you want to be precise — in 2009, my first year doing this for the site, are probably the reason why I didn’t use Top 100 as a cutoff in the first place. So that’s eleven college first basemen in eight drafts taken within the first 100 picks. Wording it that way doesn’t give it quite the same punch as four guys in eight drafts, but it’s still not a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.

If you’ve read this far, thank you and sorry for losing the plot. The point of everything above, if there is one at all, is fairly open-ended. I think there’s something to these recent draft trends; real big league teams would be wise to take note and set their own big boards accordingly. Ultimately, my personal hypothesis is that college first basemen remain undervalued draft day assets. Nobody following the modern game will tell you the recent movement towards athleticism and defense is anything but brilliant, lest they get made fun of Twitter for having an opinion that breaks from consensus. I like athletes and premium defenders as much as they next guy. BUT…you need players who can hit, too. And if we’re trying to apply a lesson to any of the rambling mess that preceded this, then maybe all it takes to “win” on draft day is a general awareness of the larger trends going on across baseball. Pick a bat or two you like and wait it out. If you believe there’s any predictive power in yesterday’s post, then at least one or two of the players listed in this top ten will fall outside of the draft’s top ten rounds. That’s wild to me. These are good players! If all of baseball is zigging towards one type of player, then maybe consider zagging towards the big bats. Just a thought.

Hey, 2017 college first basemen! Almost forget about them. Here’s a list…

  1. Virginia JR 1B/OF Pavin Smith
  2. Louisville JR 1B/LHP Brendan McKay
  3. Kentucky JR 1B/OF Evan White
  4. Wake Forest JR 1B Gavin Sheets
  5. Michigan State rSO 1B/LHP Alex Troop
  6. Oregon State JR 1B/C KJ Harrison
  7. Binghamton rSO 1B/3B Justin Yurchak
  8. BYU JR 1B/C Colton Shaver
  9. Florida JR 1B/C JJ Schwarz
  10. UCLA JR 1B/3B Sean Bouchard

And here are some 2016 lines to kick things off…

.329/.410/.513 with 36 BB/23 K in 228 AB
.333/.414/.513 with 24 BB/33 K in 228 AB

That’s freaky, right? Nearly identical triple-slash lines, same number of at bats, and almost perfectly inverted BB/K ratios. Top is Pavin Smith, bottom is Brendan McKay. There’s been some divergence in their numbers so far in 2017…

.328/.394/.597 – 16 BB/5 K – 134 AB
.388/.508/.633 – 24 BB/16 K – 98 AB

…but not so significantly that any pre-season beliefs should be tossed out. McKay is a really great prospect. When you factor in his ability as a pitcher — and likelihood that he remains a pitcher rendering everything written below little more than a potential backup plan — I’d give him an edge over Smith as an overall prospect. As a hitter and hitter only, I lean Smith. Before we get to him, the skinny on McKay as a hitter…

As for McKay specifically, well, I think he’s just a more appealing hitting prospect than a pitcher. As you’ll read below, this isn’t an opinion that I can justify objectively as much as a weird hunch I’ve had while watching him over the years. McKay’s hit tool (above-average to plus), power (above-average to plus), and approach (SHOCKER – above-average to plus) all fit the bill for a middle of the order big league first baseman. The excellent Sam Monroy dropped Logan Morrison’s name when discussing McKay; I’ll go a little richer and say he reminds me of Eric Hosmer. Keeping in mind both guys are still active and at different points in their respective careers, it should be noted that my “rich” comparison (106 career wRC+) has only outhit Morrison (105 wRC+) by a whole point to date. Anyway, the good version of Hosmer (.300/.360/.460) is a really damn good hitter and exactly the type of prospect I’d deem worth using a first round pick on. The not so good version, unfortunately, is just a guy. That’s a bummer, but there’s still hope. If you’re seeing “bad Hosmer” after a predetermined increment of time passes (two full seasons?), then the plan to get McKay back on the mound and pitching again should be rolled out posthaste. I don’t think this is what will happen — I’d bet tonight’s pizza money that he gets drafted and signed as a pitcher — and I’m not yet entirely convinced it’s what should happen, but, as I’ve said, it’s my current lean as of April 5, 2017.

As for Smith, I’m still not really sure what he doesn’t do well. It’s a true plus hit tool with a picture perfect swing, outstanding plate coverage, and standout pitch recognition. His raw power is above-average to plus and already showing up in games. He’s a well above-average glove at first with enough athleticism and arm strength (88-93 FB pre-TJ surgery) to at least give some teams pause when considering his long-term defensive position. Seriously, what’s not to like about him as an offensive player?

If we wanted to nitpick — and we DO — then it’s worth pointing out that there have been some whispers about less than ideal bat speed. Fine, I guess. I struggle with identifying bat speed outside of the extremes, so I’m happy to tip my cap to anybody who can tag a guy with an above- or below-average swing of the bat using only the naked eye. I can’t, so I try not to judge. Can’t say I’ve noticed anything all that remarkable — good or bad — about Smith’s bat speed, and at some point his outstanding three years of hitting high-level amateur pitching should win out anyway. It’s the current Rowdy Tellez argument manifesting itself in college ball. I like Tellez. I like Smith.

I’ve also heard some BASEBALL MEN chatter about Virginia hitters struggling to adjust to pro ball. Can’t say I really buy that one, though I suppose the murderer’s row of Phil Gosselin, Jarrett Parker, John Hicks, and Chris Taylor haven’t exactly lit the world on fire in the pros. Brandon Guyer, Ryan Zimmerman, and Mark Reynolds give the Cavaliers a little more clout, but that’s going way back. I remember liking guys like Tyler Cannon, Dan Grovatt, Steve Proscia, Stephen Bruno, and Reed Gragnani with little to nothing to show for it in terms of pro success. Mike Papi, Derek Fisher, and Daniel Pinero seem primed to turn the reputation around…if you think the reputation needed turning around in the first place. And then there’s this guy…

.338/.427/.518 with 74 BB/55 K and 4/5 SB in 554 AB
.323/.394/.515 with 78 BB/68 K and 5/12 SB in 637 AB

Top is Matt Thaiss’s career numbers at Virginia. Those were good enough to get him selected sixteenth overall last year. Bottom is what Smith has done so far. Feels like there’s a comparison to be made between the two hitters in there somewhere. Like Thaiss last year, mid-first round feels like a fair landing spot for Smith as of now.

Pumping Evan White up as a potential regular at first base takes a little more of a leap of faith considering his underwhelming plate discipline (29 BB/75 K) through two seasons at Kentucky. Despite the ugly numbers, however, scouts who have seen a lot of White up close have maintained that his approach isn’t that of a hacker who will never get it but a far more mature hitter who shows the kinds of flashes of pitch recognition and patience that give them confidence he’ll wind up with a manageable or better BB/K ratio in the long run. Those two sentences were written before the season, believe it or not. This is absolutely not a comp, but the feedback I got on White over the offseason reminded me a bit about what I was consistently told about Kyle Lewis last winter. The approach looks bad on the stat sheet for now, but all scouting signs point to better days ahead. They were right on Lewis and they seem to be right on White so far.

Smith and McKay are both clearly great prospects, but White, while not the best (yet) of this group, is my favorite. He has such a funky profile that is unlike almost anybody I’ve ever covered. How into White am I? I was at a bachelor party this past weekend boring my brother and the father of the groom-to-be about “this freaky athletic first baseman at Kentucky who could seamlessly make the move to center field.” White is a fantastic athlete who is an easy plus defender at first. He’s got the above-average to plus arm and above-average foot speed to handle the outfield, a move that would make perfect sense if the prospect of him playing transcendent defense at first didn’t exist. George Horton, via D1 Baseball, compared him to JT Snow. In addition to Snow, I heard a really good comp for White recently…and I have one of my own to offer. I’ll let you decide which is which: Jeff King (on the lower end) and Derrek Lee (on the upper end). A spectrum from King to Snow (if you can forgive the handedness) to Lee seems like a fair range of big league outcomes for White.

Reading up on Alex Troop this past offseason, the same thought kept occurring to me over and over: Troop is the cold weather version of Brendan McKay. Hyperbolic? Sure, but only a little. Troop is really good and not nearly discussed enough as one of the college game’s best two-way prospects. Most smart people I’ve checked in with prefer him on the mound. I get it. He’s 86-92 with his fastball with an easy plus 77-80 CU (one of my favorites of its kind in this entire class) and a usable 79-80 breaking ball. Still, I can’t shake the thought of what a 6-5, 210 pound present hit over power type (with power coming on fast) and a seasoned veteran’s approach at the plate could do once dedicated to hitting full time.

If you’re not buying the Troop/McKay parallels, let me try another prospect to prospect comparison. There’s a lot about Gavin Sheets, mainly as a hitter, that reminds me of Evan White. Both are hit over power types with lots of athleticism. Wake Forest is a great place to hit, but I’m buying Sheets’s bat in a big way right now.

It’s only natural to lump KJ Harrison, Colton Shaver, and JJ Schwarz together as prospects. All three have experience behind the plate, but, as their presence on this list suggests, are likely to move full-time to first base in the pros. I’m typically slower to move prospects down the defensive spectrum if I can help it, but sometimes the most likely outcome is exactly how things play out. “It’s always the person you least suspect” is nonsense, after all. It’s almost always the person you most suspect! So maybe it’s time to stop overthinking things here and start buying into the defensive groupthink a little more freely. We’ll see.

Harrison is the most likely of the three to remain a catcher, so he gets bonus points for that. He also gets bonus points for really knowing how to hit. Most of the feedback I had on this group of players had some combination of McKay, Smith, and Harrison as the top trio of hitters. Watching Harrison work is a joy. He takes some of the most professional amateur at bats around. He can hit it anywhere on the field, deftly taking what the pitchers give him and willing to shoot the ball the other way or up the middle when necessary. I think pro scouts and coaches are really going to love Harrison in a way that us amateur chumps don’t quite appreciate just yet.

Shaver is the least likely of the three to remain a catcher. Power bats from Shaver’s part of the country are a little scary due to park factors inflating offense, but the BYU slugger’s power is prodigious enough to play in any park in the country. That power coupled with a mature approach make him a bat to watch, slow offensive start to 2017 or not. Speaking of slow starts…

I brag a lot about not overreacting to small samples, but when those small samples cease to be all that small…well, that’s a different beast altogether. JJ Schwarz’s dip in production and increasingly tepid scouting reports are tough to ignore. “Defense and body took major step back in 2016” is a line taken directly from my notes that scares me every single time I read it. His athletic profile fascinates me. Schwarz improved a lot in both areas as a freshman, took that aforementioned step back in 2016 as a sophomore, and then took a small step ahead on the Cape this past summer. Through it all I never really considered his bat to be anything but a weapon going forward — major bat speed (I know, I know…I’m a hypocrite), serious power, and a freshman season so good you could always point to as proof that he can do it — but this spring has been undeniably underwhelming. I started the season thinking we’d be having the same debates we had last year about Zack Collins, but now think Schwarz’s closest college comparison might be Matt LaPorta. Read into that what you will.

ACC bats make up three of the top four prospects on this list. Number seven on the list comes from Binghamton by way of another ACC school (Wake Forest). Justin Yurchak hit in 2015. He’s hit in 2017. It’s not a huge sample, but sometimes spotting a hitter who can hit isn’t exactly rocket science. My only question with Yurchak right now is about his defense. It’s a happy question, too. Is Yurchak miscast with the first basemen here? Can he play a good enough third base to stick there in the pros? I don’t know the answers to those questions yet — if you do, let me know — but I’m excited to find out more about him over the next two months. I know he can hit, and that’s more than enough for now.

Sean Bouchard is still a little too aggressive for his own good, but his power, arm, and athleticism will check a lot of boxes for teams. Bouchard isn’t really my type, but finding a tenth guy for this list was a bigger challenge than anticipated. My hunch is that will change by June when I have a little more time to dig deeper and find bats more to my liking. But if Bouchard keeps up his .300/.400/.600 pace then he’ll be tough to push out ugly BB/K or not…

A few other names of note are listed below. It’s hardly an exhaustive list…we have to save something for June, right?

Chipola JC SO 1B/OF Reynaldo Rivera
Duke JR 1B Justin Bellinger
Georgia Tech JR 1B/OF Kel Johnson
Hartford SR 1B/3B David MacKinnon
Hawaii JR 1B Eric Ramirez
Michigan JR 1B/3B Drew Lugbauer
Seattle JR 1B Sean Sutton
Southern Illinois Edwardsville SR 1B Keaton Wright
UNC Wilmington JR 1B Mason Berne

College First Base Prospects – A Brief(ish) MLB Draft Study

Seven years ago I made an attempt to look at some historical draft trends including this piece on college first basemen and the MLB Draft. The plan this year was to reference it quickly and move on, but the pull of looking at past drafts was too strong. Despite all of my claims of wanting — no, needing — to prioritize generalized 2017 MLB Draft content above all else, I instead sunk far more time than I’d like to admit on updating a post written almost a decade ago. I need help.

*****

Time Period

2002 – 2011

Data Set

MLB Draft first base (1B) prospects selected out of college (four-year or junior college) designated as such by Baseball Reference

Initial Findings

MLB starters (hitter): 18
MLB starters (pitcher): 2
Total MLBers: 54

(“Starters” is a bit of a misnomer as you’ll see in the list below, but I think it gets the point across so long as you aren’t aggressively literal with it.)

MLB Starters

Ryan Shealy, Nick Swisher, Conor Jackson, Adam Lind, Mike Dunn, Steve Pearce, Tyler Flowers, Chris Davis, Lucas Duda, Mitch Moreland, Sean Doolittle, Stephen Vogt, Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak, Ike Davis, Brandon Belt, Paul Goldschmidt, Justin Bour, CJ Cron, Alex Dickerson

(The overall math doesn’t change much if you want to toss a few of these names out, but I tried to be generous with the “starter” label when possible. Some degree of personal bias — most notably a longstanding belief that Shealy deserved better — also may or may not have crept into this section.)

Basic Math (MLB Impact)

2.0 starters/year
1.8 starting position players/year
5.4 big league players/year

(Averages don’t really work this way, but I’d still argue a reasonable expectation for any given draft class is two long-term starters and three additional big league players out of said class’s college first base prospect pool.) 

Basic Math (MLB Draft)

49.1 players from data set drafted each year
10.2 players from data set drafted in top ten rounds each year

Colleges with Multiple MLB Players Drafted and Signed from 2002 – 2011

California – 2
Tulane – 2
Loyola Marymount – 2
South Carolina – 2
Arizona State – 3
Mississippi State – 2
UNLV – 2

(Not sure this tells us anything at all, but seeing schools pop up multiple times while doing this felt noteworthy enough to me to jot down. Once it’s jotted down, it either gets deleted or posted…so why not post it? Schools out west seem disproportionately successful here. Nothing to it probably, but there you go.) 

Yearly Breakdowns

2002 (46 college 1B total; 13 college 1B in top ten rounds)

Starter at 1B: Ryan Shealy (11-321, Florida)

Starter (non-1B): Nick Swisher (1-16, Ohio State)

Reached Majors, Little Value: Brad Eldred (6-163, Florida International), Paul McAnulty (12-355, Long Beach State)

Notes: Pretty good year for HS 1B as Prince Fielder (1-7), James Loney (1-19), James McDonald (11-331), and Travis Ishikawa (21-637) all provided some value in some way

2003 (42 college 1B total; 10 college 1B in top ten rounds)

Starter at 1B: Conor Jackson (1-19, California)

Reached Majors, Little Value: Michael Aubrey (1-11, Tulane), Josh Whitesell (6-177, Loyola Marymount), Carlos Corporan (12-339, Florida Gateway JC)

Note: Not a single HS 1B in this class ever sniffed the big leagues; Corporan made it, but as a catcher

2004 (56 college 1B total; 15 college 1B in top ten rounds)

Starter at 1B: Adam Lind (3-83, South Alabama)

Starter (non-1B): Mike Dunn (33-999, Southern Nevada CC)

Reached Majors, Little Value: Joe Koshansky (6-170, Virginia), Rhyne Hughes (8-225, Pearl River CC), Tommy Everidge (10-307, Sonoma State), Chris Carter (17-506, Stanford)

Notes: Dunn is a little like a less talked about version of Sean Doolittle (see below); two pretty solid finds at the HS ranks in Mike Carp (9-254) and Kyle Blanks (42-1241)

2005 (48 college 1B total; 7 college 1B in top ten rounds)

Starter at 1B: Steve Pearce (8-241, South Carolina)

Starter (non-1B): Tyler Flowers (33, 1007, Chipola JC)

Reached Majors, Little Value: Jordan Brown (4-124, Arizona), Jeff Larish (5-150, Arizona State)

Notes: The one and only HS player to make it here was Logan Morrison (22-666)

2006 (44 college 1B total; 11 college 1B in top ten rounds)

Starter at 1B: Chris Davis (5-148, Navarro JC)

Reached Majors, Little Value: Mark Hamilton (2-76, Tulane), Aaron Bates (3-83, North Carolina State), Brett Pill (7-206, Cal State Fullerton)

Notes: only HS player here to make the highest level was Lars Anderson (18-553); I distinctly remember really liking Whit Robbins back in the day…

2007 (42 college 1B total; 8 college 1B in top ten rounds)

Starter at 1B: Lucas Duda (7-243, USC), Mitch Moreland (17-530, Mississippi State)

Starter (non-1B) Sean Doolittle (1-41, Virginia), Stephen Vogt (12-365, Azusa Pacific)

Reached Majors, Little Value: Matt LaPorta (1-7, Florida), Joe Mahoney (6-189, Richmond), Steven Hill (13-412, Stephen F. Austin), Clint Robinson (25-756, Troy), Efren Navarro (50-1450, UNLV)

Notes: Doolittle is a reliever and not a starter but you get what I was going for there; tremendous year for HS 1B with Freddie Freeman (2-78) and Anthony Rizzo (6-204) emerging as stars at the position, Giancarlo Stanton (2-76) doing the same in the outfield, and even Andrew Lambo (4.146) eventually getting the call

2008 (51 college 1B total; 11 college 1B in top ten rounds)

Starter at 1B: Yonder Alonso (1-7, Miami), Justin Smoak (1-11, South Carolina), Ike Davis (1-18, Arizona State)

Reached Majors, Little Value: Brett Wallace (1-13, Arizona State), David Cooper (1-17, California), Allan Dykstra (1-23, Wake Forest), Matt Clark (12-375, LSU), Tyler Moore (16-481, Mississippi State), Xavier Scruggs (19-575, UNLV)

Notes: Eric Hosmer (1-3) was the big star in the class; seven first basemen — six out of college alone — taken in the first 23 picks will blow my mind until the day I die

2009 (57 college 1B total; 10 college 1B in top ten rounds)

Starter at 1B: Brandon Belt (5-147, Texas), Paul Goldschmidt (8-246, Texas State), Justin Bour (25-770, George Mason)

Reached Majors, Little Value: Ben Paulsen (3-90, Clemson), Ryan Wheeler (5-156, Loyola Marymount), Nate Freiman (8-234, Duke), Sean Halton (13-406, Lewis-Clark), Chris McGuiness (13-408, The Citadel), Darin Ruf (20-617, Creighton), Cody Decker (22-654, UCLA)

Notes: Jon Singleton (8-257) is the only HS player so far to reach the big leagues; Rich Poythress (2-51, Georgia) and Tyler Townsend (3-85, Florida International) were top one hundred pick busts

2010 (53 college 1B total; 9 college 1B in top ten rounds)

Reached Majors, Little Value: Andy Wilkins (5-158, Arkansas), Jason Rogers (32-969, Columbus State)

Notes: Christian Yelich (1-23) is the only positive value player in this entire class; top ten college prospects included Hunter Morris, Mickey Wiswall, Blake Dean, Kyle Roller, AJ Kirby-Jones, Tony Plagman, David Rohm, and Aaron Senne

2011 (52 college 1B total; 8 college 1B in top ten rounds)

Starter at 1B: CJ Cron (1-17, Utah)

Starter (non-1B): Alex Dickerson (3-91, Indiana)

Notes: a whopping five HS 1B were drafted in the top ten rounds highlighted by Dan Vogelbach (2-68)

So why stop at 2011? Well, stopping here leaves us with a nice and easy line of demarcation, mainly being the 2012 MLB Draft was the first to go forty rounds rather than fifty. It also gives us a clean ten years of data to look at. Round numbers sure are pretty. Finally, it makes for five years worth of “new” data to look at going forward. It also doesn’t hurt that making judgments on players selected just a few years ago can lead to some embarrassing guesses about their futures…check the link at the top if you don’t believe me. Here’s the data for the past five drafts…

2012 (34 college 1B total; 9 college 1B in top ten rounds)
2013 (42 college 1B Total; 10 college 1B in top ten rounds)
2014 (46 college 1B Total, 10 college 1B in top ten rounds)
2015 (42 college 1B Total, 8 college 1B in top ten rounds)
2016 (38 college 1B Total, 5 college 1B in top ten rounds)

That comes out to an average of 40.4 college 1B selected in each draft with 8.4 of them going off the board in the first ten rounds. That’s down from the 49.1 and 10.2 results from the ten-year period detailed above. The former result makes sense considering the deletion of ten rounds at the end of the draft, but the dip in top ten college first base prospects off the board is interesting. How does any of this apply (if at all) to this year’s college first base class? Stay tuned…

America East MLB Draft Follow List

(Quick update I’ll delete after a day or two: fell a bit behind last week, trying to catch up now, going with a few easy lists in the meantime as I hopefully finish up a few other more insightful posts…)

Occasionally I’ll get asked some variation of “Hey, I’m seeing Blank vs Blank this weekend – who should I watch for?” These lists are the long versions of those answers. Basically, any player listed below has either a) done something worthwhile on the field to warrant some further investigation (i.e., he’s hit certain statistical benchmarks I like), or b) shown enough to somebody (BA, D1, PG, Twitter, my contacts, me…anybody, really) to get a few words written on the Internet that could then be turned into a meaningful “scouting note” in my database. Not every guy is a definite draft prospect — since missing on a player drives me nuts, these lists aim to be as inclusive as possible — but each individual player has done enough to deserve some degree of draft consideration from me.

So if you ever find yourself spending a spring afternoon watching Binghamton and Maine square off, you’ll be all set. If this site serves no other purpose than even that, I can rest easy.

Albany

SR LHP Marcus Failing (2017)
SR RHP JT Genovese (2017)
rSR C/1B Evan Harasta (2017)
SR OF Eric Mueller (2017)
rSR 3B Matt Hinchy (2017)
rSR OF Kyle Sacks (2017)
rJR OF Connor Powers (2017)
SO LHP Hunter Torres (2018)
SO RHP Domnic Savino (2018)
SO RHP Angelo Spedafino (2018)
SO LHP Kenny McLean (2018)
SO 2B Pat Lagravinese (2018)
SO SS Kevin Donati (2018)
SO C Matt Codispoti (2018)

Binghamton

rSR RHP Jake Cryts (2017)
rJR RHP Jacob Wloczewski (2017)
JR RHP Joe Orlando (2017)
JR RHP Jake Erhard (2017)
JR RHP Dylan Stock (2017)
JR LHP/1B Nick Wegmann (2017)
rSO 1B/3B Justin Yurchak (2017)
SR 1B/OF Brendan Skidmore (2017)
SR OF Darian Herncane (2017)
SR C/OF Edward Posavec (2017)
JR C/1B Jason Agresti (2017)
JR OF Chris McGee (2017)
JR OF/2B CJ Krowiak (2017)
JR 3B/1B Luke Tevlin (2017)
JR SS Paul Rufo (2017)
JR OF Pat Britt (2017)
SO RHP Nick Gallagher (2018)
SO OF Daniel Franchi (2018)
FR RHP Ben Anderson (2019)

Hartford

SR RHP John LaRossa (2017)
rJR RHP David Drouin (2017)
SR RHP Brian Stepniak (2017)
JR RHP Collin Ferguson (2017)
JR RHP Kevin Tise (2017)
RHP/OF Sebastian DiMauro (2017)
SR 1B/3B David MacKinnon (2017)
SR 2B/3B Dalton Ruch (2017)
JR C Erik Ostberg (2017)
JR 3B/SS TJ Ward (2017)
JR SS/3B Ben Bengtson (2017)
JR OF Nick Campana (2017)
rSO 2B Cam Belliveau (2017)
SO RHP Justin Cashman (2018)
SO RHP Billy Devito (2018)
SO RHP Seth Pinkerton (2018)
SO RHP John Mormile (2018)
SO OF Ashton Bardzell (2018)
SO 3B Chris Sullivan (2018)
FR RHP Nathan Florence (2019)
FR LHP Thomas Feehan (2019)
FR C Bryce Ramsay (2019):
FR C Robert Carmody (2019):

Maine

SR RHP Jeff Gelinas (2017):
JR RHP Chris Murphy (2017)
JR RHP Justin Courtney (2017)
JR RHP John Arel (2017)
JR LHP Connor Johnson (2017)
rJR RHP Zach Winn (2017)
rJR RHP Jonah Normandeau (2017)
SR OF/RHP Tyler Schwanz (2017)
SR OF Lou Della Fera (2017)
JR OF Brandon Vicens (2017)
SO LHP Eddie Emerson (2018)
SO RHP Nick Silva (2018)
SO SS Jeremy Pena (2018)
SO 3B/2B Danny Casals (2018)
SO OF Colin Ridley (2018)
FR 1B Hernen Sardinas (2019)

Stony Brook

JR LHP Teddy Rodliff (2017)
rJR RHP Cameron Stone (2017)
JR RHP Aaron Pinto (2017)
JR LHP Kevin Kernan (2017)
JR LHP/OF Cole Creighton (2017)
SR OF Toby Handley (2017)
SR 1B/OF Casey Baker (2017)
rSR C David Real (2017)
JR 1B/3B Andruw Gazzola (2017)
JR 2B/SS Bobby Honeyman (2017)
SR SS Jeremy Giles (2017)
SO RHP Bret Clarke (2018)
SO LHP/OF Joe Baran (2018)
SO C Sean Buckhout (2018)
SO OF Dylan Resk (2018)
FR RHP Brian Herrmann (2019)
FR RHP Sam Turcotte (2019)
FR 2B/OF Michael Wilson (2019)
FR OF Chris Hamilton (2019)

Massachusetts – Lowell

SR RHP Steve Xirinachs (2017)
JR RHP Andrew Ryan (2017)
JR RHP Nick Kuzia (2017)
JR RHP Tim Fallon (2017)
JR RHP Dan Cunico (2017)
JR RHP Luke Tomczyk (2017)
SO 1B/OF Steve Passatempo (2017)
SO LHP Ricky Constant (2018)
SO RHP Kendall Pomeroy (2018)
SO RHP Nick Rand (2018)
SO RHP Collin Duffley (2018)
SO OF Michael Young (2018)
SO OF Chris Sharpe (2018)
rFR C Austin Young (2018)
FR 1B John Polichetti (2019)

UMBC

rSR LHP Kevin Little (2017)
SR RHP Cory Callahan (2017)
rJR RHP Patrick Phillips (2017)
JR RHP Matt Chanin (2017)
rSR RHP Michael Austin (2017)
rSR OF/RHP Tim Kelly (2017)
SR 1B/LHP Connor Hax (2017)
rJR SS Matt Campbell (2017)
SR C Hunter Dolshun (2017)
SR OF Andrew Casali (2017)
rJR 3B Mitchell Carroll (2017)
JR C Zack Bright (2017)
JR 1B Jamie Switalski (2017)
SO RHP Jacob Christian (2018)
SO 3B AJ Wright (2018)
FR RHP Mitchell Wilson (2019)

2017 MLB Draft Report – Miami

Carl Chester is a special athlete with game-changing plus-plus speed, insane range in center, and a damn strong arm to boot. Those three premium tools will keep him employed for a long time to come. I still have a few doubts about how much he’ll hit, but many people smarter than I believe in both the hit tool and power playing at or around the average range at maturity. If that comes to fruition, Chester would be a superstar. Even something less — as I’d forecast, knowing full well the odds are clearly in my favor by going the pessimistic route on any player’s hopeful ceiling — could put Chester somewhere between an average big league center fielder and a potential all-star in any given year. I got a Charlie Tilson draft comp on him recently that I don’t hate. I like Tilson just fine, but at first glance that seems a little light in terms of upside for a tooled-up player like Chester. When you consider the draft version of Tilson, a second round pick in 2011, however, the comparison comes together a bit. Chester in round two seems like a thing that could happen this June.

Johnny Ruiz will find a home in pro ball based on his speed and above-average defense in the middle infield. The way he plays the game reminds me of a guy who should be playing about seven hours northwest (ed. note: Florida is a gigantic state) in Tallahassee. He has some utility player upside if it breaks right. Chris Barr is a joy to watch defensively, but hasn’t been able to get the bat going again after what looked like a breakout 2015 season. Michael Burns and JD Davison can both run, but that’s all they’ve shown so far. Brandon Gali is at least a interesting as another potential utility infielder. Hunter Tackett was expected to transition smoothly back to D1 ball after some time in junior college, but things don’t always go according to plan. His above-average power and considerable bat speed keep him very much on the draft radar, slow start or not.

Miami’s rotation has three draft-worthy arms at the top. Both Michael Mediavilla and Jeb Bargfeldt do the crafty lefthander thing pretty well. Both guys live in the upper-80s with average or better changeups. Mediavilla has both the edge in size (6-5, 225 to Bargfeldt’s 6-0, 175) and track record, so he wins this semi-final matchup to face off with teammate Jesse Lepore for top 2017 Hurricanes pitching prospect. Lepore has a tick more velocity (85-92) with a pair of solid offspeed pitches (74-76 breaking ball, 77-78 changeup) with comparable size (6-4, 215) to Mediavilla. In the end, I’d go with the big lefty in a narrow victory by virtue of handedness, deception, and performance to date.

Cooper Hammond and his 78-82 MPH sinkers from a wacky submarine delivery that brings back fond memories of Chad Bradford remains on the shelf after last May’s Tommy John surgery. I’d put him on my personal board assuming he comes back healthy, but that could be a minority view. Enrique Sosa, another Hurricane arm working his way back from an arm injury (shoulder in his case), is probably the more conventionally appealing prospect at full health. Amazing what an extra ten miles per hour will do for a guy’s prospect stock. There is no such thing as a sleeper, but if there was then Kevin Pimentel might qualify. He’s healthy and performing well for a second straight year. At his best, Pimentel is 88-92 (94 peak) with his fastball and capable of throwing two impressive offspeed pitches (average change, low-80s breaker that flashes plus). I’m excited for what he’s done so far this year and for what he’s capable of going forward.

*****

JR LHP Michael Mediavilla (2017)
JR RHP Jesse Lepore (2017)
rJR RHP Cooper Hammond (2017)
rSR RHP Enrique Sosa (2017)
rSO RHP Keven Pimentel (2017)
rSR RHP Ryan Guerra (2017)
JR LHP Jeb Bargfeldt (2017)
rJR RHP Mike Perez (2017)
JR OF Carl Chester (2017)
SR C Joe Gomez (2017)
SR 2B Randy Batista (2017)
rSR 3B/1B Edgar Michelangeli (2017)
SR 2B/SS Johnny Ruiz (2017)
rSR 1B/OF Chris Barr (2017)
JR OF Hunter Tackett (2017)
JR OF JD Davison (2017)
rSO C Alex Sanchez (2017)
JR SS/2B Brandon Gali (2017)
rJR OF Michael Burns (2017)
SR OF Barry Buchowski (2017)
FR RHP/1B Greg Veliz (2018)
SO RHP Andrew Cabezas (2018)
SO RHP Frankie Bartow (2018)
SO 3B/SS Romy Gonzalez (2018)
FR RHP Mason Studstill (2019)
FR RHP Evan McKendry (2019)
FR RHP Connor Manous (2019)
FR RHP Daniel Rivero (2019)
FR C Mike Amditis (2019)

2017 MLB Draft Report – Louisville

The system for writing up team reports is pretty simple. I copy all the team information I have directly from my notes into a Gmail draft, separate the pitchers from the hitters, and start pecking away at the keyboard. The presence of Brendan McKay on the Louisville roster breaks my system. I now need a third group because he’s just too damn good at both pitching and hitting to make any definitive call about his professional spot just yet. My personal lean sends him out as a hitter first. The reasons are mostly general — in almost all 50/50 situations like this, I prefer starting prospects out as hitters because I think the day-to-day development for a young hitter is more important over the long haul than that of a pitcher. Hitters need reps to keep growing. Pitchers, at a certain point in their development, are more or less what they’ll be. This is the logic some teams use when “rushing” raw minor league pitchers with big arms; every body only has X amount of bullets in the chamber, so “wasting” them anywhere but the big leagues doesn’t make sense. Put it another way, I think it’s a lot easier to pick pitching back up after years away from doing it than it is to reacclimate yourself as a hitter.

(4/8/2017 EDIT: Keith Law recently mentioned the idea of Hunter Greene starting out his pro career as a hitter before transitioning to the mound in his first full season. He’d give his arm a break this summer while also giving his drafting team a firsthand look at what he can do [or can’t do] at the plate. Thought this was pretty brilliant and I’m annoyed I didn’t throw it out there first. I think a similar idea can apply to McKay. Let him hit this summer to rest his arm. If he’s great, maybe let him keep hitting. If he’s not so great, begin gearing him up to start next year as a pitcher again. If he’s neither great nor not so great…well, I guess that might make things a little complicated. No more than when deciding on draft day, though.)

As for McKay specifically, well, I think he’s just a more appealing hitting prospect than a pitcher. As you’ll read below, this isn’t an opinion that I can justify objectively as much as a weird hunch I’ve had while watching him over the years. McKay’s hit tool (above-average to plus), power (above-average to plus), and approach (SHOCKER – above-average to plus) all fit the bill for a middle of the order big league first baseman. The excellent Sam Monroy dropped Logan Morrison’s name when discussing McKay; I’ll go a little richer and say he reminds me of Eric Hosmer. Keeping in mind both guys are still active and at different points in their respective careers, it should be noted that my “rich” comparison (106 career wRC+) has only outhit Morrison (105 wRC+) by a whole point to date. Anyway, the good version of Hosmer (.300/.360/.460) is a really damn good hitter and exactly the type of prospect I’d deem worth using a first round pick on. The not so good version, unfortunately, is just a guy. That’s a bummer, but there’s still hope. If you’re seeing “bad Hosmer” after a predetermined increment of time passes (two full seasons?), then the plan to get McKay back on the mound and pitching again should be rolled out posthaste. I don’t think this is what will happen — I’d bet tonight’s pizza money that he gets drafted and signed as a pitcher — and I’m not yet entirely convinced it’s what should happen, but, as I’ve said, it’s my current lean as of April 5, 2017. I kind of talked myself into starting him on the mound below, but we’ll pretend I didn’t for the sake of not wanting to delete these last two paragraphs. Instead, let’s use this as means of highlighting how damn amazing McKay is as both a pitcher and a hitter right now. It’s really hard to choose which way to go with him. Even hardscrabble BASEBALL MEN paid to have strong opinions are currently straddling the fence. The fact that we can even have this discussion speaks to McKay’s unique gifts on both sides of the ball. All right, moving on…

The depth of the Louisville pitching staff is simply incredible. My pretend editor says that “simply incredible” is bad writing, but I don’t care. That’s the first thing that came to mind when checking out this staff. Every pitcher strikes out a batter per inning. Every pitcher not coming off of major surgery has demonstrated above-average control. Damn near every pitcher hits 92 MPH or better with at least one average or better secondary. It’s the kind of pitching staff that could step right into AA next week and hold its own as a unit. If there are three better pitching staffs top to bottom in college baseball, I’d be surprised.

It’s tough to pick between Kade McClure and Lincoln Henzman as the surer bet — in as much as any young pitcher is a “sure bet” — professionally. The output has been similar, the velocity is similar (88-92, 94 peak), the breaking balls are similar (average 76-83 hybrid pitch for McClure, average 83-87 cut-slider for Henzman)…there’s not a whole lot of separation here. McClure has the size advantage (6-7, 230 to Henzman’s 6-2, 200) while Henzman, my preference by the slimmest of margins, shows the better present changeup at 84-87 MPH with splitter action. I think both wind up as big league contributors within a few years. If it’s upside you seek, then Riley Thompson could very well leapfrog both juniors. Thompson, a draft-eligible redshirt-freshman coming off Tommy John surgery, flashes monster stuff (mid-90s fastball that can touch 98, quality 78-82 breaking ball, low-80s change) when everything is working.

Then there’s Brendan McKay. It always comes back to McKay. He’s so good that I bolded his name twice. As a pitcher there is a lot to like; perhaps more appropriately, there’s little to nothing not to like about him as a pitching prospect. On the days he has his best fastball going — more 90-94 than 87-91 — he’s a legitimate three above-average offering pitcher with little to no projection needed. That’s a good thing for McKay as there isn’t a ton of physical projection left from a body standpoint. Fortunately, with three above-average present pitches there’s not a ton of need for more. If anything, you could draft him as a pitcher with some degree of expectation that devoting 100% of his time and energy on throwing would make him an even more dangerous all-around pitcher. He’s firmed up the low end velocity of his fastball so far this year and now largely pitches from 89-94 MPH, a positive development considering how heavily he’ll learn on the pitch when he’s commanding it (a frequent occurrence). He pairs the heat with what is now a steady plus 82-84 MPH changeup (up from average or a tick above his first two seasons) and his usual above-average to plus 77-84 MPH curve. Three pitches, ample athleticism, and standout command make him one of the draft’s closest to the big league talents. Obvious comps have been made to two-way stars of the past like Danny Hultzen, Sean Doolittle (tough to top this one), and Brian Johnson (this one is my own). One contact mentioned that McKay reminded him of a young Al Leiter. I like that. Outside of the frequent mentions of him being a finalist for the award in his name, I’m not sure I’ve seen John Olerud mentioned as an offensive comp yet — I know this is the pitching portion, humor me — but I think that makes a ton of sense, too. Just had to slip that in there since the mention of Leiter reminded me of his Mets days playing with Olerud. I really want to write “moving on…” again, but I’ve already used that. I’m terrible at transitions. Let’s just get on with it.

For as much as I like McKay as a pitcher, the sum of his parts falls a just bit short of what I personally envision the whole could be. I can admit that this is kind of a BS reason to knock McKay down the board a few spots as a pitcher, but sometimes a guy can look REALLY good on paper and just be really good in real life. If scouting is some part science and some part art, I guess it’s the latter that’s keeping me from loving McKay as much as the former suggests I should. I still really like him, both as a pitcher and a hitter, but not quite on the level where I’d be considering him with the first overall pick. Probably not with a top five pick, though that’s a take that’s far from set in stone.

If I had to make imaginary odds for McKay’s big league outcome, I’d put him at 50% mid-rotation starter, 20% legit number two, 20% bust (sixth starter, middle relief, never makes it past AA…however you choose to define it), and 10% ace. Offensively, I’d go 50% “good Hosmer,” 40% “underwhelming Hosmer,” and 10% bust (bench bat, platoon guy, never make it past AA…again, whatever). I debated long and hard about deleting this whole paragraph, but I trust you enough as an audience to not get too hung up on my entirely improvised odds here.

Beyond the big four of McClure, Henzman, Thompson, and McKay, there’s plenty of other interesting draft-worthy depth on staff. Jake Sparger does the sinker/slider thing with imposing size (6-5, 200), Rabon Martin could have a future as a matchup lefty, and Shane Hummel‘s mid-70s changeup should be enough to get him some senior-sign attention.

Lost somewhat in McKay Mania is a loaded lineup of returning position player prospects poised to be picked early. There are two FAVORITE’s among the Cardinals 2017 hitting prospects and that’s not counting everybody’s favorite McKay and star shortstop Devin Hairston. Both FAVORITE’s have some questions defensively that need answering, but are strong enough with the bat in their hands to put those queries on the back burner for now. FAVORITE #1 is Drew Ellis, a draft-eligible sophomore who can really hit. Ellis’s potential above-average hit tool, plus raw power, and mature beyond his years approach at the plate make him one of this class’s top overall bats. The lack of attention the physical (a strong 6-3, 210 pounder), versatile (experience at 3B, 1B, and in the OF) masher gets on the national prospect stage confuses me. If a team believes in him defensively at the hot corner — I see no reason not to at this point, but who knows — then I don’t think a first day draft grade is out of line for Ellis. Hitters hit and Ellis hits like a hitter. Or something like that. I like his bat as much as McKay’s and he has a shot to play a more demanding defensive spot, so I don’t think an eventual home in the first round, if not in reality than on my personal board, is out of line. From FAVORITE to first day to first round…now that’s how you talk yourself into a prospect.

FAVORITE #2 is Colby Fitch, 2016 thirty-second overall pick Will Smith’s “backup” last season behind the plate. I love Will Smith and there’s more to talent evaluation than the numbers, but go ahead and check to see what the two guys did head-to-head the very year Smith went to the Dodgers with the third-to-last pick of the first round. Fitch is every bit the hitter Smith is with enough arm and athleticism to make it work in an outfield corner in the event you’re not sold on him long-term as a catcher. I am, but time will tell. Either way, he’s a FAVORITE.

I could definitely see a team talking themselves into Logan Taylor earlier than the consensus might anticipate; his range in center is special and he offers more with the bat than most senior-sign glove-first types. I’m in on him as one of this year’s most appealing draft seniors. A step or two below is Colin Lyman, another senior who should have enough speed, arm, athleticism, and contact ability to get himself in the pro ball fifth outfielder mix. Though I like him as a prospect, I don’t have anything particularly insightful to say about Ryan Summers. He has a nice power/speed going on and I know some teams are open to the idea of shifting him back to catcher in pro ball. The aforementioned Devin Hairston gets buried at the end here (and, like McKay, gets the double-bold treatment for his troubles) despite being arguably a top three college shortstop in this class. He does everything well — though arguably nothing spectacularly — on both sides of the ball with a 99.99% chance of remaining at shortstop through his first MLB contract. You don’t have to be a conventional star offensive talent to provide star value if you can stay up the middle, and Hairston could end up that kind of player in the long run.

*****

JR RHP Kade McClure (2017)
rJR RHP Lincoln Henzman (2017)
rFR RHP Riley Thompson (2017)
SR RHP Jake Sparger (2017)
JR LHP Rabon Martin (2017)
SR RHP Shane Hummel (2017)
JR 1B/LHP Brendan McKay (2017)
JR SS/2B Devin Hairston (2017)
SO 3B/OF Drew Ellis (2017)
JR C/1B Colby Fitch (2017)
SR OF Colin Lyman (2017)
rJR OF/C Ryan Summers (2017)
SR OF Logan Taylor (2017)
rFR RHP Bryan Hoeing (2018)
rFR RHP Noah Burkholder (2018)
SO RHP Sam Bordner (2018)
SO LHP Adam Wolf (2018)
SO 2B Devin Mann (2018)
SO OF Josh Stowers (2018)
SO C Zeke Pinkham (2018)
FR LHP Nick Bennett (2019)
FR RHP Michael McAvene (2019)
FR LHP/OF Adam Elliott (2019)
FR SS Tyler Fitzgerald (2019)
FR 3B/SS Justin Lavey (2019)
FR OF Dan Oriente (2019)
FR INF Logan Wyatt (2019)

2017 MLB Draft Report – Georgia Tech

The 2017 pitching crop at Georgia Tech is fairly uninspired. If/when Patrick Wiseman gets on the mound for some steady innings, that could change. He’s got imposing size (6-5, 230) and a big fastball (88-93, 95 peak) when right. Jonathan King is yet another ACC crafty lefty who might appeal to some — upper-80s fastball, two quality offspeed pitches, deceptive, athletic — but as a 24-year-old (in a week) redshirt-senior coming off an arm injury who didn’t miss a ton of bats when healthy…I mean, there’s no nice way to really finish that story. Ben Parr (85-90 FB) and Zac Ryan (85-92 FB, good 78-80 CB/SL) could get looks as relief prospects in the pros; I give the edge to Parr as a lefty with better size and a more impressive track record.

On the other side of the ball, the name that jumps out right away is Trevor Craport. I really like Trevor Craport. I like him so much that we’re almost at the point where I’m actively seeking out bad news about him to temper my expectations for him. Craport had a quietly great 2016 season and is doing more of the same so far in 2017. His power, arm strength, and athleticism are all average or better. He’s a competent glove at third base who also has intriguing upside as a catching conversion project if his drafting team so desires. There’s just a ton to like about his game. In a lackluster third base college class, he has a great shot to rise way up boards this spring.

Wade Bailey is a rock solid middle infielder in a class in need of some good prospects there. He’s a good defender at second with solid speed, quick hands, and a little more pop than his frame might suggest. I approve. I also approve (to a slightly lesser degree) of Ryan Peurifoy, a personal favorite heading into last year who completely fell apart in all phases of the game. He’s rebounded just enough in the early going this year that I’m comfortable vouching for him as a draft-worthy potential big league backup outfielder. He’s got the speed, arm, and defensive instincts for the job, so it’ll be up to him to continue to be a non-zero offensively to get his shot or not. Coleman Poje is only in my notes because of 28 reasonably interesting at bats last year (.214/.314/.429 for those curious). His power and manageable BB/K ratio so far in 2017 has me thinking he’s done a better Kel Johnson impression than Kel Johnson himself. I’m intrigued.

Speaking of Kel Johnson, it’s about time we addressed the biggest name in the Ramblin’ Wreck 2017 draft universe. Johnson’s plus power puts him among a select group of amateur prospects in this class. That’s the good news. Unfortunately, impressive as that power might be, he’s looking more and more like a one-tool prospect with every empty plate appearance. All the power in the world can’t help you when you swing and miss like he does. Toss in a highly questionable defensive forecast and I think you’re looking at a platoon player/bench bat at best. He’d be an undeniably fun one of those, so at least there’s that. I’m out on him unless he comes much cheaper than anticipated on draft day. Or he starts socking dingers left and right between now and June. Either way.

*****

SR LHP Ben Parr (2017)
SR RHP Zac Ryan (2017)
JR RHP Patrick Wiseman (2017)
rJR RHP Ben Schniederjans (2017)
JR RHP Jared Datoc (2017)
rSR LHP/OF Jonathan King (2017)
JR 3B/C Trevor Craport (2017)
JR 2B/SS Wade Bailey (2017)
JR 1B/OF Kel Johnson (2017)
SR OF Ryan Peurifoy (2017)
SR OF Keenan Innis (2017)
rSR OF Coleman Poje (2017)
SO RHP Jonathan Hughes (2018)
SO RHP Tristin English (2018)
SO RHP Burton Dulaney (2018)
SO RHP Micah Carpenter (2018)
SO RHP Jake Lee (2018)
SO RHP Keyton Gibson (2018)
SO RHP Bailey Combs (2018)
SO RHP Robert Winborne (2018)
SO C Joey Bart (2018)
SO OF/1B Brandt Stallings (2018)
SO SS/2B Carter Hall (2018)
FR RHP Garrett Gooden (2019)
FR LHP Connor Thomas (2019)
FR LHP Jay Shadday (2019)
FR RHP/SS Xzavion Curry (2019)
FR RHP/2B Austin Wilhite (2019)
FR LHP/OF Nick Wilhite (2019)
FR C Kyle McCann (2019)
FR OF Chase Murray (2019)
FR 2B/SS Parker McCoy (2019)

2017 MLB Draft Report – Florida State

I like Taylor Walls a lot. I think there’s a good chance he can keep playing shortstop in the pros. If that’s the case, then he has a chance to go much higher than wherever I’m likely to end up ranking him. That potential relatively low ranking stems from the fact that I’m far less than certain than many seem to be about his chances of developing into an everyday shortstop. In all honesty, I don’t really know what to make of his defense just yet. My eyes say “sure why not,” my ears (i.e., contacts I know and trust) say “nope,” and BIG DRAFT (BA, PG, D1) collectively seem to think of him as a lock to stick at short. That’s confusing. It adds up to “inconclusive, needs more evidence” for me, so I guess that’s my official position for now. Feel free to draw your own conclusions as you see fit. Frankie Piliere, who has been pumping out great stuff for some time now but has taken it to another level so far in 2017, compared Walls to Brock Holt earlier this year. I like that a lot. I’ve gotten two comps for him — Walls, not Piliere — that I like for the throwback vibes if nothing else: the young versions of Mark McLemore and Luis Alicea. Between those three comps — long-term big league role players with flashes of starting-caliber output, all — and the generally positive scouting notes on Walls (great glove at second, good glove at short; enough arm strength for the left side of the infield; above-average speed; typical Florida State approach as a hitter), it’s fair to think of him as a relatively high-floor prospect with starting middle infielder upside. The higher the odds you place on him remaining at shortstop, the higher he should be on your board.

This is a completely anecdotal statement based largely on the recent memory of Ben DeLuzio wearing the gold and garnet, but it feels like Florida State, a school famous for piling up free passes on the offensive side of the ball, has a big-time hitter every season who completely bucks the extreme patience trend. Enter Dylan Busby, the proud owner of a 49/167 (and counting!) career BB/K ratio. Athletically gifted enough to play anywhere on the diamond — 50/50 split on first or third (my preference as to not waste his above-average arm) as his long-term spot based on info I received — and capable of some of most majestic home runs (easy plus raw power) in all the land, Busby has a lot going for him. He’s not my kind of prospect, but the power/speed athletic profile will surely entice teams willing to overlook his present free-swinging ways.

Rhett Aplin has been really strong in his Florida State debut. There’s power, arm strength, and the usual Seminole emphasis on plate discipline there. I know some that are excited at the prospect of him getting on the mound eventually, but I think his offensive game is plenty to be happy about for now. Quincy Nieporte didn’t have the breakout 2016 some (me) were expecting, but he’s been damn good to start his final season in Tallahassee. The world will always need senior-signs with power, so keep Nieporte on your draft radar. “Strong and slow” was how one contact described him. I like that.

There are probably enough decent middle infielders in this class to keep Matt Henderson from getting a chance in pro ball. That’s a shame if only for the fact Henderson might be the weirdest player in college baseball. If I told you that there was a quality glove at second (playable at short) with above-average to plus speed putting up on-base percentages of .420 (in 2016) and .397 (so far in 2017) in one of college ball’s best lineups, then you’d be sold on that as a sure-fire draft target, right? But what if that guy also hit just .230 (in 2016) and is hitting .204 (so far in 2017) with dangerously little power? Bit of a tougher sell, I’m guessing. I’d begrudgingly remove Henderson from my hypothetical draft board even before taking into account the likelihood that his one offensive strength (taking four balls and walking to first) would get weakened in a hurry once pro pitchers got wise to his total lack of sock. It still doesn’t hurt to point out how weird and wonderful Henderson is in the college setting. He could play for my college team anytime.

I think all nine of the draft-eligible Florida State arms listed below could be drafted this June. That’s a ton of picks off of one staff. Let’s rank them based on that very likelihood…

9 – Ed Voyles – Good 2016, slow start in 2017; changeup (flashes plus) and size (6-7, 200) both working in his favor
8 – Alec Byrd – long track record of success should matter more than his ugly 2017 to date; decent velocity (86-91) from the left side with some projection left (6-4, 180)
7 – Steven Wells – argument could be made he could be ranked lower due to relative inexperience on the mound, but stuff (89-93 FB, mid-70s CB) and athleticism make him a project worth taking on
6 – Will Zirzow – misses bats with a well-rounded repertoire (good 73-76 CU, 73-74 CB) without premium velocity (86-88 FB)
5 – Cobi Johnson – a true wild card as he comes back from last April’s Tommy John surgery; at his best, arguably the best stuff of any draft-eligible pitcher here (87-92 FB, 94 peak; plus 73-74 CB; average CU; 81-83 cut-SL)
4 – Jim Voyles – more success than his brother with a more relief friendly featured offspeed pitch (plus 78-80 SL)
3 – Drew Carlton – floor of an effective sinker/slider reliever with the ceiling of a useful back of the rotation starter thanks to a quality if underutilized 79-82 MPH changeup
2 – Andrew Karp – the template for Johnson as he returns from injury; like Johnson, a big HS recruit known for legit stuff (87-92 FB, 94 peak; 84-86 SL; 77-81 CB; good 79-82 CU); finally putting it all together
1 – Tyler Holton – just about everything written about Charlie Barnes of Clemson earlier in the week — 85-90 FB (92 peak), 75-79 breaking ball with promise, nasty 76-78 changeup, command for days — applies to Holton with a strong case to be made that the Seminoles draft-eligible sophomore is the better long-term prospect; big fan of this guy and his expert pitchability

For the record, that countdown is less about my own personal feelings about each than guesses about draftability. My prep love of Johnson might push him all the way to the top of a straight ranking by personal preference. Wouldn’t argue with anybody who had Holton, Karp, or Carlton in the top spot, however. All are really good pro prospects.

*****

JR RHP Cobi Johnson (2017)
JR RHP Drew Carlton (2017)
rSO RHP Andrew Karp (2017)
SR LHP Alec Byrd (2017)
rJR RHP Ed Voyles (2017)
SR RHP Jim Voyles (2017)
rJR RHP Will Zirzow (2017)
SO LHP/OF Tyler Holton (2017)
JR RHP/OF Steven Wells (2017)
JR OF/LHP Rhett Aplin (2017)
SR 1B Quincy Nieporte (2017)
JR 2B/SS Taylor Walls (2017)
SR C Bryan Bussey (2017)
JR 3B/1B Dylan Busby (2017)
SR 2B/SS Matt Henderson (2017)
SR OF/3B Hank Truluck (2017)
SO RHP Cole Sands (2018)
SO RHP Chase Haney (2018)
rFR RHP Alex Carpenter (2018)
SO RHP Ronnie Ramirez (2018)
rFR RHP Dillon Brown (2018)
SO C Cal Raleigh (2018)
SO OF/C Jackson Lueck (2018)
SO OF Donovan Petrey (2018)
FR LHP Clayton Kwiatkowski (2019)
FR RHP Brandon Reitz (2019)
FR RHP Justin Sorokowski (2019)
FR LHP/OF Drew Parrish (2019)
FR OF/RHP JC Flowers (2019)
FR 3B Drew Mendoza (2019)
FR 2B/OF Nick Derr (2019)
FR SS Tyler Daughtry (2019)
FR OF Ryan Mejia (2019)

2017 MLB Draft Report – Duke

Lefthanders that stand 6-10, 230 pounds are always a lot of fun, especially when they attack hitters from a really funky angle with more power (85-90, 92 peak) than most sidearmers we see. That’s James Ziemba. Karl Blum is plenty big in his own right — not 6-10, 230, but 6-5, 210 ain’t nothing to mess with — with quality stuff (88-93 heat, average or better 79-81 breaking ball) and little to no idea where anything is going. Chris McGrath is a good arm (93 peak, good SL) that needs innings. Mitch Stallings can get it up to 90 MPH with a nice 79-81 changeup. Luke Whitten is like a much smaller Ziemba in that he’s got an effective fastball (87-93) and slider (low-80s) combo that comes at you from a much lower slot than the norm. I have nothing on Nick Hendrix — a rarity for an accomplished fifth-year college player at a major university — but his peripherals are always good so maybe there’s something there. If you’re scoring at home, that’s six potentially draftable pitchers for Duke with five of them bringing it from the left side.

The seventh intriguing 2017 arm for Duke might be my favorite of the bunch. What Ryan Day lacks in stature (5-11, 165) he more than makes up for in arm strength (90-94 FB) and athleticism. I’ll admit to some trepidation with him as his general effectiveness has consistently overshot his mediocre peripherals, but two-way talents like Day are often guilty of blooming later rather than sooner. He’s one to watch for sure. An eighth intriguing 2017 arm is also Duke’s first intriguing 2017 bat. Two-way Jack Labosky is either a third baseman or a righthanded pitcher depending on where you stand. Like fellow ACC two-way standout Donovan Casey at Boston College, Labosky’s best bet in the pros is on the mound. Based on a quick check with some smarter people I’ve asked that’s a bit of a minority view, but I’m sticking with it for now. While I appreciate Labosky’s thump and defensive prowess at the hot corner, I think his sinking fastball (89-90 MPH) and diving change (79-80 MPH, flashes plus) make him a better long term bet as a pitcher. That’s an opinion highly subject to change with three months of daylight separating us from draft day.

Maybe it’s me overvaluing versatility, but I can’t help be a little intrigued at Peter Zyla and his history at second, outfield, and catcher. He could be a useful 2018 senior-sign if teams are less enamored with versatility than I am. My notes on Jalen Phillips include the question “time to bail?” so you might have some clue as to where I’m leaning on him. The long-awaited breakout simply hasn’t happened…yet. Time is clearly running out for the redshirt-senior. In a similar vein, Justin Bellinger felt poised for a monster 2017 after making a ton of progress as a hitter from his freshman to sophomore seasons. So far, not so much. Still, it’s way too early to give up on him; quite the opposite, in fact, as he remains one of the most appealing first base prospects in this college class, early struggles or not. Hard not to fall for his size, power, and underrated feel for hitting when he’s at his best.

As much as I try to stay away from publicly commenting on future classes — not for the lame claim it’s “too early” that others use, but for the fact these already long pieces would be untenably long — I can’t help but throw a little love Jimmy Herron‘s way. Herron, an early FAVORITE for 2018, is legit. Plus runner, plus arm strength, intriguing power upside, great approach…it’s a really appealing package. From both a tools and performance standpoint, Griffin Conine isn’t all that far behind. Future looks great for the Blue Devils outfield.

*****

rJR RHP Karl Blum (2017)
rJR LHP James Ziemba (2017)
rSR LHP Nick Hendrix (2017)
JR LHP Chris McGrath (2017)
SR LHP Kevin Lewallyn (2017)
JR LHP Mitch Stallings (2017)
JR LHP Luke Whitten (2017)
JR RHP/SS Ryan Day (2017)
JR 3B/RHP Jack Labosky (2017)
JR 1B Justin Bellinger (2017)
rSR OF/1B Jalen Phillips (2017)
JR 2B/SS Max Miller (2017)
JR 2B/OF Peter Zyla (2017)
JR OF Michael Smicicklas (2017)
SO RHP Al Pesto (2018)
SO RHP Hunter Davis (2018)
SO OF Griffin Conine (2018)
SO OF Kennie Taylor (2018)
SO OF Jimmy Herron (2018)
SO SS Zack Kone (2018)
SO SS Zack Kesterson (2018)
SO C Chris Proctor (2018)
FR LHP Adam Laskey (2019)
FR LHP Graeme Stinson (2019)
FR RHP Coleman Williams (2019)
FR LHP Bill Chillari (2019)
FR RHP Cam Kovachik (2019)
FR RHP/1B Matt Mervis (2019)
FR C Chris Dutra (2019)
FR OF Chase Creek (2019)
FR 3B Erikson Nichols (2019)

2017 MLB Draft Report – Clemson

I love what Clemson does when building their starting staff. Charlie Barnes represents this Clemson ideal as well as anybody. His velocity is hardly overwhelming at 85-90 MPH, but he’s deceptive, crafty as hell, and can put any one of his three average or better offspeed pitches anywhere he wants in any count. It’s a profile that I personally love, though I can’t help but wonder how it translates to the upper-levels of pro ball. Somebody remind me in the offseason to do a a quick study about highly successful mid-to upper-80s college arms fare in the pros. In the meantime I’m left to ponder whether or not I’m falling too much in love with Barnes as a college pitcher and forgetting the ultimate aim here is projecting skill sets to pro ball?

I hope that’s not the case, but I’d be lying if I said I knew it wasn’t with any real certainty. My half-assed attempt at “research” while we wait for a less busy time of year (LOL) to come: per Fangraphs, only 12 of the 73 (16%) qualified starting pitchers last season averaged fastballs under 90 MPH. The only sub-90 MPH lefty out of that twelve, surprisingly enough, was Dallas Keuchel. Is Barnes a candidate to be the next Kuechel? I’m not saying that because, as we all know and Keuchel’s path demonstrates, player development is a funny game. Still, there’s at least some precedent, outlier or not, that suggests making it with a fastball that barely clips ninety is possible if you’ve got enough else going for you. If the Keuchel non-comparison comparison doesn’t work for you, then maybe you can be talked into Barnes following a path reminiscent of late-career Jeff Francis, Mark Buehrle, Ted Lilly, Doug Davis, and, the patron saints of lefties doing big things with (relatively) small fastballs, Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer.

Again, we’re not actually comparing Barnes to any of those specific guys — a more sensible comparison both in terms of draft stock and pro upside might be Tommy Milone (or, if you’re into peer to peer comps, Josh Reagan of South Carolina, Jared Poche’ of LSU, and Gunner Leger of Louisiana…really, there’s a ton of college lefties like this in this year’s class) — but merely highlighting of a few of the success stories over the years. Barnes is Barnes, a guy good enough in other areas (plus 76-77 CU, average 71-75 CB, 77-82 cut-slider) to excel even without major heat. Tricky long-term player to project or not, I’m currently buying Barnes as a real draft talent. If he falls to the same range as Milone, a tenth rounder in 2008, then I’m really buying.

Clemson has other pitchers to write about, too. Exhaustive research was not done, but I believe Pat Krall is the last remaining Temple baseball prospect still bouncing around college ball. That could be wrong, so don’t go out trying to win any bar bets with that fact. What is right (I think), is that Krall is the best Temple guy remaining by a healthy margin. He’s like a slightly less exciting version of Barnes: similar velocity (mid-80s), similarly nasty changeup (mid-70s), and enough of a breaking ball to tie it all together. The stuff may not blow you away, but he’s got the makeup, size (6-6, 200), and track record of success to get on the draft boards of smart teams out there. Plus, his changeup is really good, and who doesn’t love a great changeup? There are worse mid- to late-round matchup lefties to gamble on, so I heartily endorse Krall as a draft-worthy player…and it’s not just my own Philadelphia/Temple bias kicking in.

It’s really hard not to like Alex Eubanks as well. He’s been consistently good to great on the bump, and his stuff more than holds up. What he lacks in big velocity — he is a Tiger, after all — he makes up for in movement (86-93 with serious sink), command, and quality offspeed offerings (81-84 changeup, 83-88 cutter, 80-84 slider, 77-78 curve). That’ll play.

Tyler Jackson has good stuff (88-92 FB, good 80-82 CU, low-80s SL) and flat knows how to miss bats. He did it at USC Upstate and he’s doing it at Clemson. There’s a place in pro ball for a guy like him. I know nothing (yet) of Patrick Andrews‘s stuff, but he’s another guy who just plain gets results. Ryan Miller, like Jackson an incoming transfer (in Miller’s case from FAU), has come back from TJ surgery armed with a big fastball up to 96 MPH. I’m intrigued. Jake Higginbotham, draft-eligible as a sophomore but still on the way back from a 2016 arm injury, has flashed really impressive stuff from the left side at his best. I’d be trying to pin down his potential willingness to sign all spring if he was in my scouting backyard. Jeremy Beasley and Paul Campbell are currently (as of 3/27) eighth and tenth in innings for this year’s Clemson’s team respectively. Beasley stands 6-4, 215 pounds and lives in the low-90s with a plus split-change. Campbell lives 90-94 (hits 96) and throws a decent curve. Both are draft-worthy talents who are barely seeing the field at this point. The short version of everything I’ve written so far: Clemson has some serious depth on the mound. Let’s take a look at the other side of the ball and see how the Tiger hitters stack up.

Personal favorite — but not quite FAVORITE — Chase Pinder seems to have the fourth outfielder profile going for him with a chance to play regularly if he can ever find a way to more consistently tap into his above-average raw power. It’s very easy to like his defense in center, arm, and speed, all average or better tools, otherwise. It also doesn’t hurt that Pinder has what might be one of the five to ten best pure hit tools in all of college baseball right now. That’s exciting. Relatively high-floor player with sneaky starter ceiling.

Reed Rohlman doesn’t have quite the same athletic profile as Pinder, but he’s certainly no slouch at the plate. With similar offensive strengths (loads of hard contact) and questions (over the fence power), he’s a solid mid-round prospect. Pinder being a surer early-round prospect goes to show the importance of positional value, athleticism, and speed. Presbyterian transfer Weston Jackson has some work to do before quieting critics — like me — wondering how his offensive game would adjust from moving from the Big South to the ACC. I was really excited to see what Grayson Byrd and KJ Bryant would do this spring, but both are off to relatively slow starts. At their best, both can run, defend, and throw at premium defensive spots. I also thought Patrick Cromwell would hit the ground running — or, more accurately, just plain hit — but he’s been slow to get going as well. All four names are worth watching as the spring continues to unfold.

Chris Williams got his shot to follow Chris Okey and he’s taken full advantage. He’s athletic enough to have spent time at both first and third while waiting Okey out. Now that he’s getting steady time behind the dish, he’s proven to be a solid all-around defender with an average arm. His calling card has been and will continue to be his raw power and physicality at the plate. When he struggled last year, he still hit for power. Now that he’s rolling, watch out. I’m more or less in on Williams and think he’s got a shot to close the gap between himself and Pinder as Clemson’s top 2017 position player prospect. It’s not a great year for college catching as I see it, so the opportunity to rise way up the board is in play. I’m still not all the way there with him — the approach still leaves plenty to be desired — but his strengths (power bat with a strong likelihood to remain a catcher) tend to fit the wishlist of certain drafting teams more than others.

You can’t write about Clemson without mentioning the big guy, so here goes: Seth Beer is a star and deserves all the hype he’s gotten since first stepping on campus. He’s great. His long-term defensive forecast scares me, but any doubts about his bat qualify as the definition of nitpicks. In what might be a slightly spicy take, I think Logan Davidson is arguably on the same tier. Defense matters, after all. In any event, it’s hard to adequately describe how much I enjoy watching each player do what they do best. Great college players and outstanding pro prospects, both.

*****

rSR RHP Tyler Jackson (2017)
rSR RHP Patrick Andrews (2017)
JR LHP Charlie Barnes (2017)
SR LHP Pat Krall (2017)
JR LHP Alex Schnell (2017)
JR RHP Ryan Miller (2017)
SO LHP Jake Higginbotham (2017)
rSO RHP Alex Eubanks (2017)
JR RHP Jeremy Beasley (2017)
JR RHP Paul Campbell (2017)
rSR OF Weston Jackson (2017)
JR OF Chase Pinder (2017)
JR C/1B Chris Williams (2017)
JR 3B/2B Adam Renwick (2017)
rJR OF/1B Reed Rohlman (2017)
rSR 1B/OF Andrew Cox (2017)
rSO SS/2B Grayson Byrd (2017)
rSO OF KJ Bryant (2017)
JR 3B Patrick Cromwell (2017)
JR OF Drew Wharton (2017)
JR C Robert Jolly (2017)
SO RHP Ryley Gilliam (2018)
SO RHP/1B Brooks Crawford (2018)
SO 1B/OF Seth Beer (2018)
SO SS/2B Grant Cox (2018)
SO 2B/C Jordan Greene (2018)
FR LHP Mitchell Miller (2019)
FR RHP Blake Holliday (2019)
FR LHP Jacob Hennessy (2019)
FR RHP Travis Marr (2019)
FR RHP Owen Griffith (2019)
FR LHP Ron Huggins (2019)
FR SS Logan Davidson (2019)
FR C Kyle Wilkie (2019)

2017 MLB Draft Report – Boston College

Jacob Stevens has looked more like his senior year of high school self than his BC freshman year self, and that’s a really good thing for his prospect stock going forward. Stevens, damn impressive in his first year as an Eagle (8.48 K/9 and 2.54 ERA in 74.1 IP), saw a slight dip in stuff across the board as he made the otherwise seamless transition from high school star to college ace. His velocity is back up to his teenage highs (89-93) and a pair of average-ish offspeed pitches (75-78 breaking ball, low-80s change) should allow him to remain in the rotation. A sturdy frame, clean mechanics, and pinpoint fastball command all help the cause as well. I’m not in love with the profile — inconsistent control, limited projection, and the lack of a clear knockout pitch give me pause — but I get the appeal.

John Witkowski and Brian Rapp are both solid relief prospects worth watching; the former fits the sinker/slider middle relief archetype while the latter has a little more velocity (up to 95), a little more offspeed depth, and a little more upside. Despite his lack of traditional starter size, I don’t hate the idea of keeping Rapp stretched out in the pros. Vanderbilt transfer Brendan Spagnuolo is interesting – Vanderbilt doesn’t recruit guys who aren’t interesting, after all – but needs innings to showcase his stuff. Carmen Giampetruzzi is a new name for me (and what a name at that), so all I’ve got on him is what anybody else can read from his impressive early season stat page.

Meanwhile Donovan Casey is one of the better two-way prospects in this class. A case can be made for him either as a pitcher (88-92 FB, 94 peak; really good CU; breaking ball that’ll flash) or as a hitter (above-average to plus speed/arm, intriguing power upside), though I now think I’m finally on board with putting the plus athlete on the mound and letting his athleticism and arm strength take over from there. It’s funny because I’ve always been left cold by Casey as a position player — the raw tools are thrilling, but you’ve got to start hitting eventually — yet am now pretty damn excited about Casey as a pitching prospect. ABoA: Always Bet on Athleticism.

In terms of guys who strictly play the field, Boston College doesn’t have a ton to offer in 2017. Your best bet is to look strictly up the middle with players like Casey, Johnny Adams, and Jake Palomaki. Adams, a steady glove at short, has some talent, but it’s probably time to put an end to any real pro prospect chatter with him. His bat has stalled to the point of no return for me. I love Palomaki’s glove at second, base running acumen, and approach, but his lack of pop puts a hard cap on his ceiling. He will probably be somewhere on my 2017 draft list, but he’d look even better as a 2018 senior-sign prospect.

*****

SO RHP Jacob Stevens (2017)
rSO RHP Brendan Spagnuolo (2017)
rSR RHP Luke Fernandes (2017)
SO RHP John Witkowski (2017)
JR LHP Carmen Giampetruzzi (2017)
JR RHP Brian Rapp (2017)
rJR RHP Bobby Skogsbergh (2017)
SR OF/RHP Michael Strem (2017)
JR RHP/OF Donovan Casey (2017)
SR SS/3B Johnny Adams (2017)
JR 2B/3B Jake Palomaki (2017)
JR OF Scott Braren (2017)
JR 1B Mitch Bigras (2017)
SO LHP Dan Metzdorf (2018)
SO LHP Zach Stromberg (2018)
SO RHP Thomas Lane (2018)
SO RHP Sean Hughes (2018)
SO RHP Jack Nelson (2018)
SO C Gian Martellini (2018)
SO OF Dominic Hardaway (2018)
FR RHP Matt Gill (2019)
FR OF Dante Baldelli (2019)
FR SS Brian Dempsey (2019)
FR OF Jack Cunningham (2019)
FR C Aaron Soucy (2019)