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Quick 2011 MLB Draft Thoughts – Wake Forest Demon Deacons
1. Good college teams can sometimes have not so exciting pro prospects. Bad college teams can sometimes have really interesting pro prospects. That kind of cognitive dissonance can be hard for hard core — dare I say, homer? — college baseball fans to accept because the discrepancies between production and projection can be tricky to spot when emotionally invested. So what kind of team will Wake Forest be in 2011? I don’t know nearly enough about the year-to-year dynamics of college baseball to have an opinion about the Wake Forest team’s prospects heading into the 2011 season, but feel confident in declaring, at least on paper, there’s a good amount of talent on the Demon Deacon’s roster, especially on the pitching side. Will the 2011 Wake Forest team be remembered as a bad college group with good pro prospects? Or will those good pro prospects produce enough to make 2011 a season to talk about?
2. Winston-Salem will be home to two of the highest upside senior signs in 2011, OF Steven Brooks and LHP Mark Adzick. I actually am at a loss for why Steven Brooks doesn’t get more draft love — the Cubs took him in the 17th round last year, part of an overall trend of ACC outfielders (Holt, Grovatt, Rowland, and Schaus) falling way lower than expected — because he’s that rare mix of tools (plus speed, above-average raw power) and skill (great approach at plate, fantastic base runner, above-average range in CF). Adzick (upper-80s FB, very good low-70s CB, solid mid-70s CU) was seen as a potential top five round pick out of high school who fell because of a reported first round asking price. If he’s healthy and getting innings this spring, his stock could skyrocket.
3. The Demon Deacons also have two of the most intriguing 2011 two-way prospects, JR LHP/1B Austin Stadler and SO OF/RHP Mac Williamson. Stadler’s a pretty typical three pitch lefthander (upper-80s FB, CU, CB) who has a really strong track record of success (8.69 K/9 – 3.32 BB/9 – 3.79 FIP – 78.2 IP) pitching against high level competition. Williamson, a potential catching conversion candidate at the pro level, has serious power upside and a plus arm, but his swing at everything approach could prevent him from ever getting the chance to put his crazy raw tools to use. That’s one way to look at these prospects. Most teams, however, will probably wind up considering Stadler at first base due to his much improved glove, athleticism, approach at the plate, and untapped raw power. Williamson, on the other hand, could very well be viewed as a potential late inning relief prospect because of the reported mid-90s heat to go along with a solid sinker/slider mix.
Early 2011 Draft Guesses
Three bullet points and no mention of one of my favorite 2011 draft “sleepers,” SO RHP Daniel Marrs. Before injuring his labrum, Marrs was a prospect on the same level of current Phillies minor leaguer Jarred Cosart. His pre-injury power stuff (most notably a 92-94 FB peaking at 97 and a good splitter that worked as CU) could tempt a team into drafting him well before his present stuff (sinking upper-80s FB, rapidly improving cutter) would typically merit. Whether or not he ever recaptures that pre-surgery stuff remains to be seen, but Marrs is good enough to continue to expand his repertoire — the new cutter was a great fall ball surprise, I’m told — if that what it takes to succeed. After Marrs, I’d rank the Wake Forest pitching prospects, in order, JR RHP Michael Dimock (plus slider and strong performances to date), Stadler, Williamson, and Adzick. A handful of Wake relievers could garner some interest, but, really, at this point we’re just throwing names against the wall and seeing what sticks. JR LHP Zach White has the classic “everything but the kitchen sink” arsenal of pitches, JR RHP Gabe Feldman has legitimately intriguing stuff (low-90s peak FB, good mid-70s CB, potential plus cutter) but iffy command and a limited track record keep him off the slam dunk draftable list for now, and SR LHP Eli Robins has good stuff, including a good slider, but poor control has held him back so far.
There is less to be excited offensively, as only the aforementioned Brooks is a lock to get redrafted in 2011. If you count him as a first baseman and not a pitcher, then Stadler would double the number of draftable Demon Deacon hitters. JR 3B/OF Carlos Lopez is my dark horse to go later in the draft to a team willing to bet on his interesting physical tools, including his very quick wrists.
2011 Quick Draft Thoughts – Virginia Tech Hokies
1. One of the interesting things about previewing college teams heading into 2011 draft season is getting the chance to review what actually went down in 2010. The transition from this year’s draft to the next happens so fast that it can be hard to process what exactly happened between draft day and signing day. To wit, I would have never guessed the Hokies had a whopping 8 players selected in last year’s draft. I see almost no way they match that number this year — honestly, getting half the amount would be an accomplishment with the talent level of Virginia Tech’s upperclassmen — but that doesn’t take away from the really impressive group of talent that graduated to the professional ranks last year. There’s no Austin Wates, Jesse Hahn, or Mathew Price in this year’s class, but prospects like JR 3B Ronnie Shaban, SR SS Tim Smalling (unsigned 14th rounder last year), and JR RHP Jake Peeling could all go as early as round 7 or 8.
2. Pretty sure my favorite draft prospect on this year’s Virgina Tech team is a player who has yet to record his first plate appearance with the squad. FR C/OF Chad Morgan (2012 draft eligible after redshirting last season) should get all the at bats he can handle this upcoming year. Morgan has a strong bat, good pop, a plus arm, and enough athleticism to play multiple spots around the diamond. I’ve heard a “shorter Ryan Ortiz” comp that I think is appropriate. He’s one to watch.
3. It’s funny to see where my opinions diverge with the big boys in the industry because, for reasons I really can’t explain, there seems to be a weird pattern when it comes to our differences. Let me preface this by saying that those actually in the business have way better contacts, resources, and pooled brain power devoted to what they do, so, when in doubt, go with the experts you’ve come to know and trust. Anyway, it seems that there are certain colleges and geographical regions where I consistently fall in line with the experts and certain spots where there are bigger disagreements in player preferences. This year’s group of draft eligible Virginia Tech talent falls under the umbrella of big time divergent opinion. I’m relatively down on Virginia Tech compared to many of the smarter people actually in the business, so, like always, take all this for what really is.
Early 2011 Draft Guesses
I only see two solid bets I’d be willing to stick my neck out on to get drafted this year out of the Virginia Tech lineup: Ronnie Shaban and Tim Smalling. Both players are flawed — Shaban lacks a standout tool and Smalling’s approach at the plate leaves much to be desired — but each does enough well — Shaban’s bat could be an above-average tool and his arm is strong while Smalling’s similarly effective bat plays even bigger up the middle — that they should be off the board within the first fifteen rounds. Jake Peeling‘s flaw is more damning as teams tend to be very wary of pitchers coming off of labrum surgery, but an average fastball, above-average slider, and good size could get him back on the prospect radar this spring. After those three, there is a noticeable gap in Hokie draft eligible talent. SO 1B Andrew Rash has huge righthanded power, but equally large holes in his swing (20 K’s in only 90 AB last year). SO RHP Charlie McCann could be on the outside looking in as he fights for meaningful innings in the early going, but his solid three pitch mix (upper-80s FB, effective slow CB, good CU) should get him on a few follow lists for 2012 and 2013.
2011 Quick Draft Thoughts – Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
1. JR LHP Jed Bradley is the obvious headliner. The Ramblin’ Wreck’s lefty ace has a shot to become Georgia Tech’s second straight Friday night starter to go in the top half in the first round in a row. I recently finished ranking 2011’s best college arms — coming soon! — with Bradley coming in as my sixth favorite college pitcher and second overall college lefthander. He’s also the highest ranked pitcher in the ACC and, with apologies to Brad Miller, Harold Martinez, and Levi Michael, the conference’s best overall prospect. In fact, now that I’m looking at my freshly completed rankings — again, coming soon! — I’m realizing that the ACC’s three best 2011 pitching prospects are all lefties. Right now it goes Bradley, Virginia’s Danny Hultzen, [big gap], and Florida State’s Sean Gilmartin. Hey, speaking of lefties…
2. One of the most interesting draft subplots of the upcoming Yellow Jacket season could be the usage of Tech’s trio of lefties who are all decidedly on the bubble — as far as I see it — when it comes to the 2011 draft. SR LHP Taylor Wood, SR LHP Zach Brewster, and JR LHP/1B Jake Davies will all be duking it out for key late inning relief appearances parceled out by the venerable Danny Hall. I thought Brewster, a potential professional LOOGY with some seriously deceptive funk in his delivery, would show enough to get popped late in the draft last year, but he turned out to be my one Georgia Tech swing-and-a-miss during my short-lived Who Will Be Drafted? series. Damn, my guesses on North Carolina were especially brutal. Only 1 out of 7 were correct AND I missed on a player who actually did get picked. Anyway, now that I’ve refreshed the readership on my sterling track record on stuff like this, let me just say that I currently like Davies’ stuff (upper-80s FB, good SL, usable but improving CU) the best of the three, but it’s hard to pick a favorite out of these tightly bunched trio.
3. In an effort to not overextend my reach this year, I’m focusing as much as possible on 2011 while trying to leave the great unknown of 2012 and 2013 alone. Therefore, anything I say about the next two years worth of draft eligible players ought to be taken with a gigantic chunk of salt. For example, if I were to say my favorite Georgia Tech 2012 is SO RHP Buck Farmer and my favorite Georgia Tech 2013 is FR RHP Deandre Smelter, then you might want to think to yourself, “Hey, it’s cool that I now have two names to store away in the back of my head for future drafts — even though I already know all about Smelter, some guy’s 17th highest rated prep player in 2010, from last year’s coverage — but I’ll be sure to do my own homework and/or check back in to this site in the future to learn more about each guy before coming up with any concrete opinions about either player.” Farmer’s low-90s fastball, potential plus breaking ball, and emerging changeup give him the look of a potential solid big league starter. Smelter’s upside is more tantalizing; it’s not crazy to think that he could leave school as a plus fastball, plus slider, plus splitter power pitching prospect in the mold of the player he’s received instruction from, Kevin Brown.
Early 2011 Draft Guesses
JR LHP Jed Bradley, JR RHP Mark Pope, JR 3B Matt Skole, and SR RHP Kevin Jacob (Josh Fields 2.0?) are all stone cold locks to see their names pop up on MLB.com’s Draft Tracker this June. I’m more bullish on JR 2B Connor Winn than most; assuming he has the year I believe he’s capable of having in 2011, he’d probably fall in after those four, but before potential high risk/high reward plays like JR OF Jarrett Didrick, JR RHP/2B Jacob Esch, and JR OF Roddy Jones on my personal rankings. After those eight prospects, we come to the three aforementioned lefthanded relievers, Wood, Brewster, and Davies. If all eleven players get popped, and keep in mind that’s obviously a gigantic if at this point in the process, then that would top last year’s remarkable ten Georgia Tech draft selections. If I was a gambling man, I’d bet on Bradley, Pope, Skole, and Jacob only, and opt to wait and see on how much playing time players like Winn, Didrick, Esch, Jones, Wood, Brewster, and Davies actually get this spring. If I was an optimistic fellow trying to sell you on these guys, I might rave about Didrick’s overflowing tool set (plenty of raw power, above-average speed and range, plus arm), Esch’s opportunity to show his quality stuff on the mound this spring after a disappointing 2010 at second base, and Jones’ borderline unfair NFL speed and athleticism. Since I’m an optimistic betting man, let’s say Bradley, Pope, Skole, Jacob, Winn, Didrick, Esch, Brewster, and Davies all get drafted this June.
Back
Typically, this would be a sad time. A time to go stare out the window, perhaps. Baseball is once again in hiding and it’ll be months before it returns. 2010 was a fun season, but, as the game’s best pitcher once memorably prophesied, “it’s only gonna get funner.” That original “prediction,” if we can really call it that, may not have worked out exactly the way it was intended, but it’s right on the money in this context. Any sadness that such a fun season has come to an end can hopefully be mitigated by the thought that the offseason, specifically all of crazy 2011 Draft coverage you’ll find here, can be even funner.
For what it’s worth, and I’m sure it’s not much, there may have been a grand total of five days between the 2010 Draft and right this very moment that some work didn’t go into the site in some capacity. Obviously, 99% of that work hasn’t manifested itself into any kind of tangible content to read and/or tear apart here on the site, but things have never stopped churning behind the scenes. I hate that it played out that way, but it was necessary for the long-term survival of the site. Back to work starting Monday morning. It’s gonna be funner.
2010 College World Series – Florida State’s 2011 MLB Draft Players of Note
I’m a little bit at a loss as I try to decide my next move with the site. 2010 draft recaps, 2011 early previews, college team profiles…I’m not really sure what I want to do. In the meantime, here’s something quick on one of the eight remaining teams in the 2010 College World Series. Ideally I’d do one of these for every team. We’ll see. Also, comments and emails will be answered over the next few days.
2011 MLB Draft Players to Know – Florida State
SO LHP Sean Gilmartin (4.73 FIP; 9.12 K/9; 2.68 BB/9; 100.2 IP)
SO 2B Sherman Johnson (.335/.449/.513; 44/36 BB/K; 7/10 SB; 224 AB)
SO RHP Hunter Scantling* (5.00 FIP; 7.98 K/9; 2.66 BB/9; 44 IP)
SO OF James Ramsey (.291/.443/.539; 48/41 BB/K; 10/11 SB; 206 AB)
JR RHP Daniel Bennett* (3.56 FIP; 10.06 K/9; 3.18 BB/9; 34 IP)
SO LHP Brian Busch* (4.36 FIP; 8.74 K/9; 3.99 BB/9; 70 IP)
JR 3B Stuart Tapley (.281/.419/.454; 40/57 BB/K; 7/9 SB; 185 AB)
JR RHP Tyler Everett* (3.46 FIP; 7.92 K/9; 4.47 BB/9; 44.1 IP)
JR C Rafael Lopez (.290/.405/.427; 20/29 BB/K; 0/0 SB; 131 AB)
JR C Parker Brunelle (.222/.297/.395; 8/13 BB/K; 0/1 SB; 81 AB)
JR RHP Andrew Durden* (3.84 FIP; 7.71 K/9; 4.82 BB/9; 9.1 IP)
JR LHP Tye Buckley* (5.27 FIP; 5.40 K/9; 8.78 BB/9; 13.1 IP)
JR LHP Robby Scott* (2.19 FIP; 10.80 K/9; 7.20 BB/9; 5 IP)
JR OF Robby Stahl (.000/.250/.000; 2/3 BB/K; 0/0 SB; 5 AB)
JR OF Jack Posey: Fall 2009 Tommy John surgery
Gilmartin throws an upper-80s fastball with the potential for three average or better secondary pitches (low-70s curve, mid-70s changeup, slider) in time. Johnson, a former walk-on, is one of my favorite college position player sleeper prospects heading into 2011. He’s taken to the patented ultra-patient Florida State approach like he’s been doing it all his life while still showing off tremendous bat control and an advanced feel for what opposing pitchers want to do against him. He’s also got the defensive tools to be well above-average at both second base and third base, though he could ultimately work best as a smooth fielding shortstop. If nothing else, his defensive talent at multiple infield spots makes a utility future seem like a decent floor projection. I won’t lie and claim to have a comprehensive knowledge of all 2011 college middle infield prospects at this point, but I’d be hard pressed to come up with as well-rounded a player as Johnson. The rising junior has enough of every tool to succeed at the next level. Scantling is huge (6-8, 270 pounds) and athletic, but his stuff still doesn’t quite match his imposing frame. That could change in a hurry, but for now he’s still sitting in the same upper-80s with iffy breaking stuff that he was at back in high school. It’ll be interesting to see if he’ll get more consistent innings as a starter or if Florida State opts to keep him coming out of the bullpen in 2011. Ramsey is generally seen as one of the better 2011 college outfield prospects, but at this point in his development he’s little more than an above-average bat to me. His arm is currently average at best and his range in the outfield is below-average. In addition, he’s a decent runner who picks his spots on the bases well. College players limited to leftfield need to be able to hit a ton to make it in pro ball.
Bennett has been counted on in many big spots as the Seminoles primary non-closer relief pitcher. His deceptive sidearm delivery, above-average fastball, and impressive junior year peripherals make him one to watch. The former Tallahassee Community College standout should get first crack at reclaiming the closer’s job he lost to Mike McGee this season in 2011. Busch won’t wow you with his stuff, but he does have a decent curveball and good command. Tapley is a favorite among coaches, scouts, and fans for his superior work ethic, hustle, and on-field demeanor, so it’s easy to believe he could be in store for a quick return trip back up teams’ draft boards with a big senior season. He’s not a third baseman long-term, but a utility future could be in the cards if he can show any kind of aptitude at second. If that doesn’t work, he could be a four-corners bench bat type. Tapley was one of the last few cuts from my 2010 list of top 30 college third basemen, for what it’s worth.
Everett has done a good job over the years for the Seminoles, but has done it more with pitchability than stuff. Lopez is a really good defender with a strong throwing arm, but little projection with the bat makes his best case scenario that of a backup catcher. It seems there were plenty of 2010 surprise senior breakout players among college catchers, so maybe there is hope for Lopez after all. Brunelle, a top high school prospect way back when, has disappointed since enrolling at Florida State. He’s still an outstanding athlete with a line drive swing, so there may still be some hope he’s another late blooming catching prospect. Unfortunately, the lack of power and an average at best throwing arm represent two major strikes against him. I liked Durden more as a position player out of high school, but he’s shown enough on the mound in limited action to be worth a look as a potential mid-round senior sign relief project. Buckley has received some positive buzz as an effective LOOGY out of the pen, but his numbers leave much to be desired. Scott, Stahl, and Posey all received little to no playing time in 2010. Posey’s excuse, Tommy John surgery in late 2009, is understandable.
GO/AO Data Update 2.0 – May 21, 2010
Data good through May 20th. Weekend homework will be completing a few more college position lists (3B, OF, RHP, LHP) and starting back in with the high schoolers. For now, in an effort to buy me some more time to work on big stuff like that, I present the finest publicly available GO% in all the land…
North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey: 64%
Tennessee JR LHP Bryan Morgado: 51%
Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis: 70% (!)
Texas JR RHP Brandon Workman: 56%
LSU JR RHP Austin Ross: 39%
Miami JR LHP Chris Hernandez: 63%
South Carolina JR RHP Sam Dyson: 68%
Florida State JR LHP John Gast: 69%
Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn: 73% (10/0 GO/AO ratio in return from injury)
Texas SO RHP Taylor Jungmann: 65%
Virginia SO LHP Danny Hultzen: 50%
Kentucky SO RHP Alex Meyer: 53%
Rice SO LHP Taylor Wall: 58%
UCLA SO RHP Trevor Bauer: 44%
Vanderbilt SO RHP Jack Armstrong: 57%
Gonzaga SO LHP Ryan Carpenter: 56%
Kentucky JR LHP Logan Darnell: 57%
GO/AO Data Update – May 20, 2010
The plan is to start with pitchers who took the mound last Friday night and update the rest of the weekend totals throughout the day. No special order to the pitchers listed, just throwing them up based on where their name falls on my spreadsheet. GO/AO data has now been updated to include all starts (when applicable) through May 20, 2010.
Missouri JR RHP Nick Tepesch: 54%
Louisville JR RHP Thomas Royse: 53%
Mississippi JR LHP Drew Pomeranz: 47%
Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale: 61%
LSU JR RHP Anthony Ranaudo: 37%
Georgia Tech JR RHP Deck McGuire: 49%
Notre Dame JR RHP Brian Dupra: 61%
Vanderbilt SO RHP Sonny Gray: 70% (!)
UCLA SO RHP Gerrit Cole: 53%
Stanford SO LHP Brett Mooneyham: 61%
TCU FR LHP Matt Purke: 63%
Kentucky FR LHP Taylor Rogers: 56%
TCU SO RHP Kyle Winkler: 54%
GO/AO Data Update (through May 2)
First, a special thank you to everybody who reads the gibberish I churn out on a semi-daily basis around here. April was the best month from a traffic standpoint in the history of the site, besting the previous high watermark set last June. We’re up over 200,000 visitors and climbing. Thank you.
Second, another thank you for anybody who has commented or emailed over the past few weeks. I’ve read everything readers have sent in and learned a whole lot in the process. No one man can cover the draft by himself, so the help I receive in the comments or via email goes a long way in getting the best quality draft coverage out in the open. Thank you. Responses will finally be coming this week, so be on the look out for that.
Third, here’s a quick idea of what I’ve got on the agenda for the next week or so, in no particular order:
- Mystery Draft – High School Outfielders
- College Position Ranking – Shortstops and/or Catchers
- Alternate Reality Mock Draft – All Players Must Go to College (all members of 2007 prep class draft-eligible)
- 2010 MLB Mock Draft! Finally!
Anything else? I’m always open for suggestions.
Fourth, data! Top dozen groundballers in my admittedly not 100% comprehensive database:
- Vanderbilt SO RHP Sonny Gray: 2.73 GO/AO
- Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis: 2.33 GO/AO
- Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn: 2.33 GO/AO
- South Carolina JR RHP Sam Dyson: 2.13 GO/AO
- California SO RHP Dixon Anderson: 2.13 GO/AO
- Florida State JR LHP John Gast: 2.11 GO/AO
- Stanford SO LHP Brett Mooneyham: 2.09 GO/AO
- Texas SO Taylor Jungmann: 2.00 GO/AO
- North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey: 1.89 GO/AO
- Miami JR LHP Chris Hernandez: 1.86 GO/AO
- Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale: 1.69 GO/AO
- Notre Dame JR RHP Brian Dupra: 1.67 GO/AO
Now for the top half dozen…airballers?…in the same database:
- San Diego SR RHP AJ Griffin: 0.44 GO/AO
- LSU JR RHP Anthony Ranaudo: 0.57 GO/AO
- LSU JR Austin Ross: 0.60 GO/AO
- Cal State Fullerton SO RHP Tyler Pill: 0.62 GO/AO
- UCLA SO RHP Trevor Bauer: 0.73 GO/AO
- Georgia JR RHP Justin Grimm: 0.84 GO/AO
More Data – April 22, 2010
Random sampling of some of the players I’ve kept track of so far this year…
***
School – Year – Pitcher – % of batted ball outs classified as “ground balls”
San Diego SR RHP AJ Griffin – 31%
Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis – 71%
Texas JR RHP Brandon Workman – 55%
Louisiana State JR RHP Austin Ross – 38%
South Carolina JR RHP Sam Dyson – 64%
San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair – 50%
San Diego JR LHP Sammy Solis – 56%
California JR RHP Dixon Anderson – 67%
Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn – 70%
Arkansas JR RHP Brett Eibner – 43%
Florida State JR LHP John Gast – 67%
***
Stanford SO LHP Brett Mooneyham – 66%
UCLA SO RHP Trevor Bauer – 43%
Vanderbilt SO RHP Jack Armstrong – 61%
Data – Friday Night Starting Pitchers
Something about Clemson’s Friday night lineup caught my eye recently. Anything about the following configuration of names look unusual?
Chris Epps
Mike Freeman
Jeff Schaus
Kyle Parker
Wilson Boyd
John Hinson
Brad Miller
John Nester
Will Lamb
Casey Harman
No? How about when you look at it from the official Clemson baseball website? Anything?
It is entirely likely that I’m 100% insane, but the way the names are configured in that lineup is just a little bit too perfect. You could draw a line down the right side of the last names and almost get a perfectly straight line. It would look darn near perfect if not for Mike Freeman near the top and starting pitcher Casey Harman at the bottom; their names each have 11 letters total, first and last.
The entire lineup in total letters (first and last name, including the pitcher):
9 – 11 – 10 – 10 – 10 – 10 – 10 – 10 – 8 – 11
The third through eighth batters in the lineup all have exactly ten letters in their names! Amazing!
It’s the little things in life we find amusing sometimes, right? Thank you all for humoring me, now please do enjoy some exclusive ground out percentages from a sampling of college baseball’s finest Friday night starting pitchers.
School – Year – Pitcher – % of batted ball outs classified as “ground balls”
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North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey – 69%
Notre Dame JR RHP Brian Dupra – 65%
Miami JR LHP Chris Hernandez – 64%
Kentucky JR LHP Logan Darnell – 64%
Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale – 62%
Mississippi JR LHP Drew Pomeranz – 52%
Tennessee JR LHP Bryan Morgado – 51%
Ohio State JR RHP Alex Wimmers – 50%
San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair – 50%
Georgia JR RHP Justin Grimm – 46%
Missouri JR RHP Nick Tepesch – 45%
Louisiana State JR RHP Anthony Ranaudo – 41%
***
Vanderbilt SO RHP Sonny Gray – 72%
Texas SO RHP Taylor Jungmann – 69%
UCLA SO RHP Gerrit Cole – 59%
Rice SO LHP Taylor Wall – 55%
Data, Data, Data 2 – Revenge of the Worm Killers
Yesterday we looked at some of the flyballiest of college baseball’s most flyballing flyball pitchers. Today, the opposite. I limited it to potential first round candidates only, but now feel guilty about leaving out other strong groundball pitchers like Miami’s Chris Hernandez (68%), Cal’s Dixon Anderson (67%), and Florida State’s John Gast (70%). With that out of the way and my guilt finally assuaged, here are five potential first round starting pitchers with groundball percentages greater than 50%…
North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey – 78%
Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale – 67%
Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis – 75%
Texas JR RHP Brandon Workman – 62%
Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn – 71%
And a pair of top-five 2011 prospects because it’s Friday…
Texas SO RHP Taylor Jungmann – 75%
Vanderbilt SO RHP Sonny Gray – 71%
2010 Draft-Eligible Pitching: Groundout Percentage
The week ahead is wide open, so let me know if there’s anything you’d like to see. I’m currently working on a couple of high school position rankings, more college stuff (mostly position lists by conference), an updated big board, and a brand spanking new mock draft. With so much half-finished content staring me in the face, I’m happy to put something on hold to do something new and exciting as a change of pace, so if there is anything new and exciting you want to see, please let me know and I’ll make it happen.
Because I hate posts that don’t have much to do with baseball, how about a little content? The title says it all, except for the brief and wondrous snippets of 2011 draft-eligible players included (both 2011s would be second on their lists, by the way). The data I have doesn’t include every pitcher in college baseball, but rather a sampling of some of the biggest names…I’m only one man, after all. Like last time, if you have a player you are curious about, let me know.
Highest Percentage of Groundball Outs
1) North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey
2) Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis
3) Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale
HM) 2011 draft-eligible Texas SO RHP Taylor Jungmann
Lowest Percentage of Groundball Outs
1) San Diego SR RHP AJ Griffin
2) San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair
3) LSU JR RHP Austin Ross
HM) Cal State Fullerton SO RHP Tyler Pill
2010 College Baseball Week Four – SEC Edition
Running out of steam/time on these, but figured the SEC is too big of a deal to skip out on. We’re already at Week 5 of the college baseball season, but let’s take one last look at Week 4 before this information gets any more out of date and useless.
Florida
Friday: SS Nolan Fontana (Florida): 2-4
Friday: FR 1B Austin Maddox (Florida): 2-4, 2B, 2 R
Friday: FR C Mike Zunino (Florida): 3-3, HR, 3B, 2 RBI, R
Friday: SO LHP Alex Panteliodis (Florida): 7 IP 5 H 0 ER 1 BB 5 K
Saturday: SR CF Matt den Dekker (Florida): 2-5, 3B, BB, RBI, 3 R, 2 K
Saturday: SO 1B Preston Tucker (Florida): 3-6, 2B, 5 RBI, 2 R
Saturday: FR DH Austin Maddox (Florida): 4-6, 2 R, K
Saturday: FR SS Nolan Fontana (Florida): 0-1, 3 BB, SB, 2 R
Saturday: SR OF Jonathan Pigott (Florida): 1-2, BB, SB, 2 RBI, R, K
Sunday: JR 2B Josh Adams (Florida): 2-2, 2B, 2 BB, SB
Sunday: SO LHRP Nick Maronde (Florida): 1.1 IP 1 H 2 ER 4 BB 1 K
Sunday: SO RHP Tommy Toledo (Florida): 3 IP 5 H 4 ER 2 BB 3 K
Sunday: FR LHP Steven Rodriguez (Florida): 4 IP 4 H 0 ER 2 BB 2 K
Fontana, den Dekker, Tucker, Maddox, Adams, Zunino, Tyler Thompson, Bryson Smith, and Kamm Washington. How’s that for a college starting nine? I may be wildly overrating the latest crop of amateur draft talent (something I’m wont to do), but that’s a core of position players that I wouldn’t mind having as favorite team’s minor league system’s hitting talent base. Could be six starting caliber players in that group.
Louisiana State
Friday: SR 1B Blake Dean (LSU): 3-5, HR, RBI, R
Friday: SO RHP Joey Bourgeois (LSU): 1.2 IP 5 H 6 ER 3 BB 0 K
Saturday: SR 1B Blake Dean (LSU): 3-3, HR, 2B, BB, 4 RBI, R
Saturday: SO OF Mikie Mahtook (LSU): 3-4, SB, R
Saturday: JR RHP Austin Ross (LSU): 6.1 IP 5 H 2 ER 3 BB 6 K
Saturday: SO RHP Matty Ott (LSU): 1.1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 4 K
Will Blake Dean hit enough to be an everyday first baseman professionally? Does Matty Ott have the stuff to get an honest crack at a big league closer job someday? Can Mikie Mahtook put it all together to head into his draft year as a potential top-ten guy, as perhaps his talent suggests? Can somebody else answer these questions for me because I honestly have no idea how to end this thought?
Auburn
Friday: SO SS Casey McElroy (Auburn): 3-3, BB, 2 RBI, R
Saturday: JR 1B Hunter Morris (Auburn): 2-4, HR, BB, 3 RBI, 2 R
Saturday: JR LHP Cole Nelson (Auburn): 2.1 IP 4 H 6 ER 4 BB 3 K
Hunter Morris has put up good numbers so far, but he’s done it while hacking away at anything and everything remotely in the strike zone. That’s cool when you are hitting over .400 and slugging over .600, but becomes a problem when the inevitable decline in batting average comes.
Mississippi
Friday: JR LHP Drew Pomeranz (Mississippi): 6.1 IP 3 H 1 ER 3 BB 12 K
Friday: FR RHP Brett Huber (Mississippi): 4.1 IP 1 H 0 ER 2 BB 5 K
Saturday: SR 3B Zach Miller (Mississippi): 1-2, 2B, 2 BB, 2 R, K
Saturday: SO C Taylor Hightower (Mississippi): 3-4, R
Saturday: SR RHP Aaron Barrett (Mississippi): 6.2 IP 6 H 3 ER 4 BB 9 K
Sunday: JR OF Matt Smith (Mississippi): 3-5, 2B, 3 RBI, R
Sunday: SO C Taylor Hightower (Mississippi): 3-4, RBI, 2 R, K
Sunday: SO RHRP David Goforth (Mississippi): 2.1 IP 1 H 0 ER 1 BB 1 K
Pomeranz had what is quickly becoming known as a Pomeranzian start for him. Quickly known to me, at least. Huber, Barrett, and Goforth all have mid-90s fastballs and breaking balls that, at worst, flash plus. Huber probably has the most advanced breaking ball of the group, a true plus slider. Hightower is a solid 2011 backstop to watch for his defense alone; if he keeps hitting like this, watch out.
Arkansas
Friday: SO 3B Zack Cox (Arkansas): 3-6, 3 RBI, 2 R
Friday: SO C James McCann (Arkansas): 2-4, HR, BB, 4 RBI, 2 R
Friday: SR RHP Mike Bolsinger (Arkansas): 5.1 IP 8 H 5 ER 2 BB 4 K
Saturday: SO 3B Zack Cox (Arkansas): 2-4, BB, R
Saturday: JR 1B Andy Wilkins (Arkansas): 1-3, HR, 2 BB, 2 RBI, R, K
Saturday: SO LHP Drew Smyly (Arkansas): 7 IP 4 H 0 ER 2 BB 11 K
Saturday: FR RHP DJ Baxendale (Arkansas): 2 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 3 K
Sunday: JR RHP Brett Eibner (Arkansas): 3.2 IP 6 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 K
Seems to be a larger than normal number of sinker-slider pitchers in this year’s college class, although I may be misremembering the talent breakdown in previous years. Anyway, Bolsinger throws a high-80s fastball (muscled up to 93 when necessary) and an above-average, occasionally plus slider. He could slip into the back end of the top ten rounds as a solid senior sign.
Alabama
Friday: SO OF Tyler Dugas (Alabama): 3-4, 2 2B, RBI, R
Friday: SR 1B Clay Jones (Alabama): 2-3, 3B, 2 BB, RBI, 2 R
Friday: JR 2B Ross Wilson (Alabama) and JR SS Josh Rutledge (Alabama) combined to go 3-10, HR, 2B, 4 RBI, 2 R
Friday: SO LHP Adam Morgan (Alabama): 6 IP 6 H 3 ER 6 BB 2 K
Friday: SO RHP Tyler White (Alabama): 2.2 IP 2 H 0 ER 1 BB 2 K (5 GO/0 AO)
Saturday: JR RHP Jimmy Nelson (Alabama): 6 IP 4 H 0 ER 4 BB 7 K
Saturday: JR 2B Ross Wilson (Alabama): 3-6, 2 HR, 2 BB, 7 RBI, 3 R in doubleheader
Saturday: FR LHP Taylor Wolfe (Alabama): 6 IP 5 H 1 ER 1 BB 6 K
Sunday: SO OF Tyler Dugas (Alabama): 2-3, BB, R
Sunday: JR SS Josh Rutledge (Alabama): 2-3, SB BB, R
Juniors Wilson and Rutledge get all the love, but Tyler Dugas and Clay Jones are two other Alabama hitters worth remembering. Dugas has an excellent idea of the strike zone and good speed, and Jones aptly combines above-average present power, good plate discipline, and solid defense. White is a draft-eligible sophomore with a good sinking low-90s fastball and an above-average big league curveball. Nelson’s stuff grades out as similar to Mike Bolsinger (listed above), but a notch better in almost all areas.
Vanderbilt
Friday: SO RHP Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt): 8 IP 6 H 3 ER 3 BB 5 K
Friday: SR SS Brian Harris (Vanderbilt): 3-4, 3B, 4 RBI, R
Friday: SO OF Aaron Westlake (Vanderbilt): 3-3, HR, 2B, BB, 4 RBI, 2 R
Saturday: JR RHP Taylor Hill (Vanderbilt): 6.1 IP 6 H 3 ER 2 BB 7 K
Saturday: SR RHP Drew Hayes (Vanderbilt): 1.2 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 3 K
Saturday: FR OF Connor Harrell (Vanderbilt): 2-4, 2B, 3 RBI, R
Saturday: SO 3B Jason Esposito (Vanderbilt): 2-4, HR, RBI, 2 R
Sunday: SO RHP Jack Armstrong (Vanderbilt): 6.2 IP 4 H 1 ER 3 BB 4 K
Drew Hayes may have the best fastball velocity out of any college senior. That’s just off the top of my head, so it’s somewhere between probable and extremely likely that I’m forgetting someone. Connor Harrell is a five-tool talent already tapping into his immense potential.
Kentucky
Friday: SR 2B Gunner Glad (Kentucky): 2-2, HR, 2 BB, RBI, 3 R
Friday: SR CF Keenan Wiley (Kentucky): 1-1, HR, 2 BB, 3 SB, 3 RBI, 2 R
Friday: JR LHP Logan Darnell (Kentucky): 8 IP 5 H 1 ER 2 BB 6 K
Saturday: FR LHP Taylor Rogers (Kentucky): 7 IP 4 H 0 ER 2 BB 8 K
Saturday: SO OF Chad Wright (Kentucky): 3-5, SB, 3 RBI, 2 R
Saturday: SO OF Cory Farris (Kentucky): 2-4, HR, 2B, BB, 3 RBI, R
Sunday: SO OF Chad Wright (Kentucky): 4-4, SB, RBI, R
Sunday: SO OF Cory Farris (Kentucky): 1-2, HR, 2 BB, 3 RBI, R
Sunday: SO RHP Alex Meyer (Kentucky): 5 IP 4 H 1 ER 4 BB 4 K
Glad and Wiley are a solid set of redshirt seniors, a subsection of prospect that doesn’t normally produce any kind of worthwhile talent. I’m not saying either Glad or Wiley will be taken in the top half of the draft, but they are better than the average fifth year college player. Beyond those two, I really do love this Kentucky team from a prospect standpoint, especially the pitching staff. They are almost as loaded as the basketball team. Alex Meyer = John Wall (young star with impact pro potential); Logan Darnell = Patrick Patterson (glue guy capable of filling many key roles on a winning team); Taylor Rogers = Eric Bledsoe (above-average performance as freshman with above-average skills); James Paxton = DeMarcus Cousins (not a great fit, but I love watching both guys play and would love to see either on my favorite pro team at this time next year).
Mississippi State
Friday: SR 1B Connor Powers (Mississippi State): 2-4, 2B, 2 RBI, K plus raw power; too many K’s; bat isn’t all that fast; limited to first, but very good there; 6-2, 228 pounds
Friday: SO LHP Nick Routt (Mississippi State): 1.1 IP 7 H 8 ER 2 BB 2 K plus CU
Saturday: SR 1B Connor Powers (Mississippi State): 2-4, 2B, K
Saturday: FR RHP/SS Chris Stratton (Mississippi State): 5.1 IP 5 H 3 ER 3 BB 6 K 92 peak FB; quality breaking ball; emerging CU
Sunday: SO RHP Devin Jones (Mississippi State): 4.1 IP 7 H 4 ER 2 BB 2 K low-90s FB, peaking at 93; 87-88 two-seamer with great sink; hard mid-80s SL could be plus pitch (82-84); CU is work in progress; 6-4, 180 pounds
Devin Jones is yet another quality sinker/slider guy with considerable upside. Powers is a college slugger that is better suited for his current role than he’ll ever be once he hits the pros.
Tennessee
Saturday: JR LHP Bryan Morgado (Tennessee): 7 IP 1 H 0 ER 3 BB 9 K
Sunday: SR RHP Stephen McCray (Tennessee): 4.1 IP 6 H 0 ER 1 BB 3 K 88-91, touched 93-94 with FB; SL, CB, CU; good command; good athlete; 6-3, 230 pounds
Did Tennessee really have that boring a weekend or was I just in a bad mood whenever I happened to look at their box scores?
Georgia
Friday: SO OF Peter Verdin (Georgia): 4-5, 2 HR, 2B, SB, 3 RBI, 4 R
Friday: SO RHP Michael Palazzone (Georgia): 5 IP 8 H 2 ER 0 BB 4 K
Saturday: SO OF Johnathan Taylor (Georgia): 1-3, 3 BB, RBI, 3 R
Saturday: FR 1B/OF Robert Shipman (Georgia): 2-2, 2 HR, 2 BB, 4 RBI, 2 R
Saturday: JR RHP Justin Grimm (Georgia): 2 IP 1 H 1 ER 2 BB 1 K
Saturday: SR LHP Alex McRee (Georgia): 2 IP 0 H 0 ER 1 BB 3 K
Sunday: SO OF Johnathan Taylor (Georgia): 1-1, 3 BB, RBI, R
Taylor may spell his name weirdly, but he’s a really interesting 2011 prospect all the same. He’s a leadoff hitter all the way (good patience, no power), but has enough in the way of speed (plus) and defense (crazy range in center) that he should have a career as a backup outfielder even if the bat doesn’t allow him to start. Grimm left his start early due to illness, by the way.
South Carolina
Saturday: SO OF Jackie Bradley (South Carolina): 3-6, BB, SB, RBI, R in doubleheader
Saturday: SR RHP Blake Cooper (South Carolina): 6 IP 2 H 2 ER 4 BB 6 K
Saturday: FR RHP Ethan Carter (South Carolina): 2 IP 2 H 1 ER 0 BB 0 K
Saturday: JR RHP Sam Dyson (South Carolina): 4 IP 7 H 6 ER 0 BB 4 K
Saturday: SR RHP Jay Brown (South Carolina): 4.1 IP 4 H 1 ER 0 BB 4 K
Sunday: SR C Kyle Enders (South Carolina): 3-5, BB, 4 RBI strong defender
Sunday: FR LHP Tyler Webb (South Carolina): 5.2 IP 4 H 2 ER 1 BB 7 K
Bradley continues to impress, but Dyson’s dud is a tad worrisome. Late first round arm mixed with the consistency of a fifth rounder. Still not sure what to make of him.
2010 College Baseball Week Four – Big 12 Edition
Here we go again. This time, the Big 12 gets a shot. I’ll save you some time and just tell you this now – Taylor Jungmann is good. Hope that doesn’t ruin the surprise…
Texas
Friday: SO RHP Taylor Jungmann (Texas): 7.1 IP 5 H 1 ER 1 BB 17 K
Saturday: SO SS Brandon Loy (Texas): 3-4, 2 2B, 3 SB, 2 BB, 2 R, K
Saturday: JR RHP Cole Green (Texas): 7 IP 4 H 0 ER 1 BB 9 K
Saturday: JR RHP Brandon Workman (Texas): 6.2 IP 7 H 2 ER 2 BB 8 K
Sunday: FR OF Cohl Walla (Texas): 3-4, HR, SB, 5 RBI, R
Sunday: JR 1B Tant Shepherd (Texas): 3-6, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 R
Sunday: FR LHP Hoby Milner (Texas): 4.1 IP 4 H 0 ER 3 BB 5 K
Clearly annoyed by all the early 2011 hype heaped upon Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, Taylor Jungmann had his say on Friday night. Cole’s 15 strikeout night looks downright puny in comparison and all that Rendon fella ever does is walk. What a bunch of amateurs. I, for one, welcome our new Longhorn overlord.
Kansas
Friday: JR OF Casey Lytle (Kansas): 3-4, 2 2B, 2 BB, SB, 2 RBI, 3 R
Friday: JR RHP TJ Walz (Kansas): 6 IP 9 H 7 ER 1 BB 7 K
Friday: JR RHP Brett Bochy (Kansas): 2.1 IP 0 H 0 ER 1 BB 5 K
Saturday: JR OF Casey Lytle (Kansas): 2-4, BB, R, K
Sunday: JR RHP Brett Bochy (Kansas): 1.1 IP 0 H 0 ER 1 BB 0 K
I’ve mentioned Bochy before, but check out Bruce’s son’s season line so far: 9 IP 2 H 0 ER 3 BB 19 K. Those numbers are even better than a typical Jungmann/Cole start! It’s getting easier and easier to envision Bochy cracking the top ten rounds as a potential quick moving power reliever. Walz is an underrated arm who is talented enough to start professionally.
Oklahoma
Friday: SO 1B Cameron Seitzer (Oklahoma): 3-3, 2B, HBP, 5 RBI, 2 R
Friday: SO CF Chris Ellison (Oklahoma): 3-6, SB, RBI, 2 R
Saturday: SO 3B Garrett Buechele (Oklahoma): 3-5, 3 RBI, R
Saturday: SO 1B Cameron Seitzer (Oklahoma): 1-3, HR, BB, RBI, R, K
Saturday: JR RHP Bobby Shore (Oklahoma): 7 IP 6 H 1 ER 1 BB 5 K
Sunday: SR RHP Jeremy Erben (Oklahoma): 4.1 IP 2 H 0 ER 1 BB 7 K
Cameron Seitzer is quickly becoming one of my favorite 2011 college bats; he’s the rare amateur prospect with a bat that could play at first base professionally. Buechele’s upside with the bat isn’t quite as high, but his ability to capably handle a more demanding defensive position earns him much needed brownie points.
Oklahoma State
Friday: SO 3B Mark Ginther (Oklahoma State): 3-4, 2B, RBI, R
Friday: SR LHP Tyler Lyons (Oklahoma State): 9 IP 10 H 3 ER 0 BB 8 K
Saturday: JR 2B Davis Duren (Oklahoma State): 4-7, 2 2B, 2 BB, 3 SB, 4 RBI, 5 R, 2 K in doubleheader
Saturday: JR SS Tom Belza (Oklahoma State): 3-7, 2 2B, 3 BB, HBP, 1 RBI, 5 R in doubleheader
Saturday: SR OF Dusty Harvard (Oklahoma State): 6-9, HR, SB, RBI, 3 R, K in doubleheader
Saturday: JR 1B Dean Green (Oklahoma State): 3-7, 2 2B, BB, 2 RBI, 2 R
Saturday: SO 3B Mark Ginther (Oklahoma State): 4-11, HR, 3B, 2B, 6 RBI, 3 R, 2 K
Saturday: JR LHP Thomas Keeling (Oklahoma State): 6 IP 4 H 0 ER 6 BB 10 K
Saturday: FR LHP Andrew Heaney (Oklahoma State): 7 IP 9 H 1 ER 3 BB 5 K
Sunday: FR C Dane Phillips (Oklahoma State): 4-4, 2 2B, SB, 2 RBI, 4 R
Sunday: JR 1B Dean Green (Oklahoma State): 3-4, HR, 2B, 2 RBI, 3 R, K
Sunday: JR RHP Brad Propst (Oklahoma State): 9 IP 7 H 0 ER 1 BB 3 K
Big weekend for Cowboy prospects, right? Lyons, the biggest name of the bunch, certainly helped his cause with his stellar Friday night outing, but the best long-term names to follow did pretty well for themselves as well. 2011 prospect Mark Ginther keeps on hitting and 2012 prospect Andrew Heaney already possesses a fastball peaking at 92 MPH, plus changeup, good breaking ball, and advanced pitchability.
Missouri
Friday: JR C/3B Brett Nicholas (Missouri): 3-4, 2B, RBI
Friday: FR RHP/OF Eric Anderson (Missouri): 5 IP 10 H 6 ER 1 BB 6 K
Saturday: SR OF Aaron Senne (Missouri): 3-4, 2B, 2 R, K
Saturday: JR RHP Nick Tepesch (Missouri): 1 IP 2 H 1 ER 0 BB 0 K
Tepesch left his Saturday start early after getting nailed in the hip by a line drive in the first inning. As someone with a creaky hip myself, I can commiserate. Anderson is a really talented arm that could follow in the high round footsteps of the Tiger righthanders before him. Three good years would put him in a great position to take his low-90s fastball, plus changeup, and hard slider to the pros with Scherzer, Crow, Gibson, and, after the draft in June, Tepesch.
Baylor
Friday: FR 1B Max Muncy (Baylor): 3-4, HR, 2B, 4 RBI, 2 R
Friday: JR RHP Shawn Tolleson (Baylor): 5 IP 8 H 5 ER 2 BB 9 K
Saturday: SO 2B Joey Hainsfurther (Baylor): 4-5, 2B, 4 RBI, 2 R
Saturday: FR OF Logan Vick (Baylor): 1-3, 2B, 2 BB, SB, RBI, 2 R
Saturday: SO RHP Logan Verrett (Baylor): 6 IP 6 H 1 ER 3 BB 8 K
Saturday: JR RHP Craig Fritsch (Baylor): 3 IP 3 H 0 ER 1 BB 3 K
Sunday: SO 2B Joey Hainsfurther (Baylor): 3-3, HR, 2B, 4 RBI, 2 R
Sunday: FR OF Logan Vick (Baylor): 1-2, HR, 2 BB, SB, RBI, 2 R
Sunday: FR 1B Max Muncy (Baylor): 2-3, 2B, HBP, 2 RBI, R
Sunday: SR RHP Willie Kempf (Baylor): 5 IP 2 H 0 ER 5 BB 2 K
Muncy, Hainsfurther, and Vick are a big part of the core of Baylor’s next great offense. I’ve been especially impressed with Vick’s outstanding plate discipline at the top of the Bears lineup.
Kansas State
Friday: JR LHP Thomas Rooke (Kansas State): 2 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 4 K
Saturday: JR SS Carter Jurica (Kansas State): 5-9, HR, 2B, 2 BB, SB, 4 RBI, 3 R in doubleheader
Saturday: SO CF Nick Martini (Kansas State): 4-8, BB, 2 RBI, 2 R, 2 K in doubleheader
Saturday: SO LHP Kyle Hunter (Kansas State): 8 IP 3 H 0 ER 3 BB 4 K
Sunday: SR 3B Adam Muenster (Kansas State): 3-3, 2B, BB, 3 RBI, R
Sunday: SO RHP Justin Lindsey (Kansas State): 7 IP 5 H 0 ER 2 BB 5 K
In a weak college shortstop class, Carter Jurica should see his stock soar this spring. He has always had the right tools to succeed (plus speed, enough pop, good athlete), but has put everything together in a big way so far this season. Martini is another well-rounded player who squares up and hits balls as consistently hard as any other player in the conference. Lindsey is 2010 draft-eligible that gets by with a strong sinker/slider combination.
Texas Tech
Saturday: JR RHP Bobby Doran (Texas Tech): 5 IP 7 H 5 ER 1 BB 6 K
Sunday: JR RHP Chad Bettis (Texas Tech): 7 IP 7 H 2 ER 2 BB 10 K
Bettis’ groundout percentage dipped all the way to 76% after this week’s outing. Weak. I admire the Red Raiders for getting their best arms the most innings, but it may be time to get Doran back in the bullpen in some kind of stretched out swingman role for the rest of the season.
Texas A&M
Saturday: SO RHP Ross Stripling (Texas A&M): 5 IP 7 H 6 ER 2 BB 3 K
Saturday: FR RHP Michael Wacha (Texas A&M): 3 IP 3 H 0 ER 0 BB 3 K
Saturday: JR 2B Andrew Collazo (Texas A&M): 4-5, SB, RBI
Sunday: SR OF Brodie Greene (Texas A&M): 2-3, 2 HR, BB, 4 RBI, 2 R
Sunday: SO RHP John Stilson (Texas A&M): 3 IP 2 H 1 ER 1 BB 4 K
Sunday: JR RHP/OF Nick Fleece (Texas A&M): 2.1 IP 4 H 3 ER 0 BB 3 K
Collazo gets a mention here because he was a key member of last year’s ridiculous Howard College team that went 63-1. He’s also a plus defender at second with just enough offensive value to get himself drafted late, contingent on his 2010 performance. Stilson and Fleece both have late-inning reliever stuff. Their fastballs peak at 97 and 96, respectively. Wacha is another high profile arm with a big fastball and crazy 2010 production so far. He’s definitely a 2012 name to remember.
Nebraska
Saturday: SR OF Adam Bailey (Nebraska): 5-8, HR, 4 RBI, 3 R in doubleheader
Saturday: SR OF DJ Belfonte (Nebraska): 4-5, HR 2 BB, SB, 3 RBI, 3 R
Saturday: JR RHP Michael Mariot (Nebraska): 9 IP 1 H 0 ER 2 BB 4 K
Sunday: SR OF Adam Bailey (Nebraska): 2-5, 2B, BB, 2 RBI, 3 R
Sunday: FR LHP Thomas Lemke (Nebraska): 6 IP 1 H 1 ER 1 BB 4 K
Sunday: JR RHP Mike Nesseth (Nebraska): 1 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K
Adam Bailey has the arm and raw tools with the bat to play right field professionally, but he’ll have to maintain the gains he has made in plate discipline if he wants to reach his ceiling. Mariot is a short righty with a good enough three pitch-mix to go within rounds 10-20 if he keeps it up.
2010 College Baseball Week Four – ACC Edition
Another day, another conference. Let’s take a journey up and down the coast to see who did what in the ACC this past weekend…
Virginia
Friday: JR OF Dan Grovatt (Virginia): 4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, K
Friday: SO LHP Danny Hultzen (Virginia): 6 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 6 K
Friday: JR RHP Tyler Wilson (Virginia): 2 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 4 K
Friday: JR RHP Kevin Arico (Virginia): 1 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K
Saturday: SR SS Tyler Cannon (Virginia): 2-4, 2 BB, RBI, R, K
Saturday: JR RHP Robert Morey (Virginia): 5 IP 7 H 3 ER 3 BB 6 K
Sunday: JR OF Dan Grovatt (Virginia): 3-5, HR, R, 2 RBI
Sunday: JR RHP Cody Winiarski (Virginia): 3.2 IP 7 H 4 ER 1 BB 3 K
Sunday: JR RHP Tyler Wilson (Virginia): 2 IP 1 H 2 ER 1 BB 1 K
The season is still impossibly young, but Cody Winiarski has been one of my bigger prospect disappointments. Big things were expected out of the junior college transfer with a low-90s fastball and power slider, but his performances thus far can charitably be called inconsistent. Virginia’ s staff is so deep that he may actually be another bad start or two from getting leapfrogged in the rotation. Speaking of Virginia pitching, it’ll be very interesting to see where Danny Hultzen, the Cavaliers’ ace who is no danger of being leapfrogged anytime soon, fits alongside some of the other big name college pitchers in the 2011 Draft. Comparisons with former Virginia LHP/1B Sean Doolittle are inevitable, but, having seen both players in person, I’d take Hultzen on the mound over Doolittle at the plate.
Florida State
Friday: SO LHP Sean Gilmartin (Florida State): 6 IP 11 H 4 ER 3 BB 6 K
Saturday: FR 2B Justin Gonzalez (Florida State): 3-4, 2B, 2 RBI
Saturday: JR LHP John Gast (Florida State): 4 IP 5 H 2 ER 2 BB 5 K
Saturday: SO LHP Brian Busch (Florida State): 3 IP 4 H 1 ER 0 BB 2 K
Sunday: FR 1B Jayce Boyd (Florida State): 3-4, 3B, R, RBI
Sunday: JR OF/RHP Mike McGee (Florida State): 3-4, HR 2 RBI, 2 R and 1.2 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 K
Sunday: JR RHP Geoff Parker (Florida State): 5.2 IP 7 H 6 ER 3 BB 6 K 94-95 peak FB
I mentioned Northwestern’s SO 1B/RHP Paul Snieder as one of my favorite two-way players in the nation in yesterday’s post, so it’s only right that I spotlight another standout Swiss Army knife. Mike McGee currently has an OPS approaching 1.100 and an ERA (through 7.2 IP) at 0.00. His mature beyond his years approach at the plate make him a better hitting prospect in my mind, but he could get docked by some scouts as a tweener outfielder without a singular standout tool. I get all that, but still believe that he’s the kind of player who has the right blend of talent and temperament to succeed as a minor leaguer.
Wake Forest
Friday: SO RHP Michael Dimock (Wake Forest): 6.1 IP 11 H 5 ER 0 BB 4 K
Saturday: SO 1B/LHP Austin Stadler (Wake Forest): 3-5, R, K
Saturday: JR CF Steven Brooks (Wake Forest): 4-5, 2B, SB, RBI, K
Sunday: SO 1B/LHP Austin Stadler (Wake Forest): 5.2 IP 4 H 2 ER 4 BB 6 K
Stadler is another two-way player who I like better at the plate than on the mound. His stuff grades out as average even by college lefty standards, although there is certainly room for growth with his mid- to upper-80s fastball if he ever gets the chance to solely concentrate on his pitching. Though just a sophomore, Stadler faces a time crunch to start performing because his lack of foot speed confines him to first base defensively. His best tool is his power, but he’ll have to start showing it off in-game if he wants to be taken seriously as a prospect.
Georgia Tech
Friday: JR RHP Deck McGuire (Georgia Tech): 9 IP 3 H 1 ER 2 BB 8 K
Saturday: JR 2B Thomas Nichols (Georgia Tech): 1-2, 3 BB, 2 RBI, R
Saturday: SO 3B Matt Skole (Georgia Tech): 3-4, HR, 2B, 2 BB, 3 RBI, 4 R
Saturday: SR 1B Tony Plagman (Georgia Tech): 3-5, 2B, BB, SB, 3 R
Saturday: JR RHP Brandon Cumpton (Georgia Tech): 4 IP 10 H 5 ER 0 BB 3 K
Sunday: SR 1B Tony Plagman (Georgia Tech): 1-1, HR, 2 BB, 3 RBI, R
Sunday: FR RHP Buck Farmer (Georgia Tech): 4 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 3 K
Sunday: SO LHP Jed Bradley (Georgia Tech): 5 IP 6 H 4 ER 2 BB 3 K
McGuire ups his gem to start ration to an even 4:4 so far on the season with his complete game on Friday. Anthony Ranaudo left the door open and Deck McGuire has waltzed right through. If he’s not the top college righthanded pitcher on the board, who is? The only competition I see for him right now (and this can all change in a week, mind you) also pitches in the conference; he’ll get his turn further down the page. Meanwhile, Matt Skole continues to hit his way into 2011 first day pick consideration, Tony Plagman begins to make noise as a decent college first base alternative in a very weak year for the position, and Thomas Nichols comes out of nowhere (sort of) to emerge as a legit 2010 draft middle infield draft candidate.
North Carolina
Friday: JR OF Ben Bunting (North Carolina): 3-5, 2B, BB, HBP, 4 R
Friday: FR OF Brian Goodwin (North Carolina): 4-4, HR, 2B, 2 BB, 4 RBI, 4 R
Friday: JR RHP Matt Harvey (North Carolina): 5 IP 7 H 3 ER 4 BB 3 K
Saturday: JR OF Ben Bunting (North Carolina): 2-4, BB, HBP, 3 R, K
Saturday: FR 2B Tommy Coyle (North Carolina): 3-5, 2 2B, SB, HBP, 2 RBI, R
Saturday: SO 3B Levi Michael (North Carolina): 3-5, 2B, BB, SB, 2 RBI, 2 R, K
Saturday: FR LHP RC Orlan (North Carolina): 2.2 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 K
Saturday: JR RHP Patrick Johnson (North Carolina): 3.2 IP 6 H 6 ER 2 BB 3 K
Sunday: JR RHP Colin Bates (North Carolina): 6.2 IP 7 H 2 ER 1 BB 3 K
You can’t see me right now, but I’m literally sitting here with my mouth open, hands on my head, and a stupider than usual look on my face. I would have bet good money I don’t have that Brian Goodwin, outstanding prospect that he clearly was and is, would struggle his first few weeks as he transitioned to playing big-time collegiate baseball. His .345/.458/.638 line so far is stunning, not just for his excellent power production (sooner than I thought), but also for his unreal early season pitch selectivity (12 BB to 8 K).
Duke
Friday: SO OF Will Piwnica-Worms (Duke): 4-6, 2B, 2 RBI, R, K
Saturday: JR SS Jake Lemmerman (Duke): 3-6, HR, 2B, 4 RBI, 3 R, K
Saturday: SO OF Will Piwnica-Worms (Duke): 3-4, HR, 3B, BB, 3 RBI, 3 R
Saturday: SO LHP Eric Pfisterer (Duke): 4.1 IP 7 H 4 ER 1 BB 4 K
Saturday: SR LHP Chris Manno (Duke): 1.2 IP 3 H 0 ER 3 BB 1 K
Saturday: FR RHP Marcus Stroman (Duke): 3 IP 6 H 5 ER 1 BB 3 K
Sunday: JR RHP Dennis O’Grady (Duke): 6 IP 7 H 3 ER 0 BB 4 K
Sunday: SO RHP Ben Grisz (Duke): 3 IP 1 H 0 ER 1 BB 2 K
I still need to finalize some of my college positional rankings, but I’m starting to think Jake Lemmerman may sneak up higher on the SS list than I ever thought possible heading into the year. My early reports on him, both from firsthand observation and through the grapevine, all indicated that his future was as an all-defense/above-average speed/minimal offense type of player. Then somebody casually mentioned they liked his bat more than most, citing untapped power potential in his 6-2, 185 pound frame. It’s early yet, but so far that little birdie has proved prophetic. Lemmerman is a quality player who will solidify his spot in the first ten rounds if he keeps up his current level of performance.
Miami
Friday: JR C Yasmani Grandal (Miami): 2-4, 2B
Friday: JR LHP Chris Hernandez (Miami): 6 IP 5 H 1 ER 2 BB 5 K
Saturday: SR RHP Jason Santana (Miami): 6 IP 5 H 1 ER 2 BB 8 K
Sunday: JR C Yasmani Grandal (Miami): 4-4, HR, 2B, 3 RBI, 3 R
Sunday: JR LHP Eric Erickson (Miami): 4 IP 3 H 3 ER 0 BB 4 K
Sunday: SO LHP Daniel Miranda (Miami): 3 IP 3 H 0 ER 0 BB 4 K
Grandal’s impressive weekend aside, something just doesn’t sit right with the combination of “Yasmani Grandal” and “first round” in my head. I know I shouldn’t put as much stock in little instinctual hunches like that, but I just can’t help myself sometimes. Or maybe I just like hiding behind the illusion of an unexplained hunch when I don’t really feel like explaining the rock solid logic behind the conclusion. Either way.
Boston College
Friday: JR LHP Pat Dean (Boston College): 8 IP 6 H 0 ER 1 BB 9 K in win over Miami
Saturday: JR OF Robbie Anston (Boston College): 2-3, 2B, BB, R
Saturday: JR RHP Kevin Moran (Boston College): 4 IP 7 H 6 ER 5 BB 2 K
Sunday: SO RHP Mike Dennhardt (Boston College): 5 IP 11 H 4 ER 2 BB 4 K
Anston is an underrated 2010 outfielder with good gap power and strong baseball instincts. I wish I had more confident reports about his defense in center because the ability to play above-average defense up the middle would really give his prospect stock the shot in the arm it needs. Moran and Dennhardt both have electric arms (Moran has hit 96 MPH with his fastball, Dennhardt sits 90-93), but each has been awful so far. If they turn it around, Boston College will have itself one of the finest weekend starting staffs in all of college baseball.
Virginia Tech
Friday: JR 1B Austin Wates (Virginia Tech): 2-4, 2B, K
Friday: SR C Anthony Sosnoskie (Virginia Tech): 0-4, K, 7/8 stealing bases off of him
Saturday: SR OF/C Steve Domecus (Virginia Tech): 3-5, HR, 2B, 4 RBI, 2 R good arm, decent defender, good athlete, power potential; strong hit tool
Saturday: SR C Anthony Sosnoskie (Virginia Tech): 3-5, 2B, 2 R
Saturday: JR RHP Jesse Hahn (Virginia Tech): 7.1 IP 2 H 0 ER 3 BB 9 K
Sunday: SO RHP Mathew Price (Virginia Tech): 8 IP 8 H 4 ER 2 BB 6 K
Nice to see Sosnoskie redeem himself on Saturday after a Friday night performance I’m sure he’d like to forget. Hahn is striking out just under a batter each inning and doing it while also getting 78% of his batted ball outs on the ground. That combination of strikeouts and groundballs could get Hahn in the running for first college righthander off the board. Watch your back, Deck.
Maryland
Friday: JR RHP Brett Harman (Maryland): 8 IP 7 H 0 ER 3 BB 5 K
Sunday: SO RHP Sander Beck (Maryland): 5 IP 5 H 2 ER 5 BB 4 K
Harman was excellent on Friday thanks to his upper-80s fastball and decent slider/changeup offspeed duo. Beck was as successful on Sunday, but has a slightly more talented arm. He is capable of dialing it up to 92 with his heater and his curve has the potential to be an above-average big league pitch in time.
North Carolina State
Saturday: SO 3B Andrew Ciencin (North Carolina State): 6-9, 2B, HBP, 2 RBI, 3 R, K in doubleheader
Saturday: JR C Chris Schaeffer (North Carolina State): 3-4, 2 HR, HBP, 4 RBI, R in doubleheader
Saturday: SR OF Kyle Wilson (North Carolina State): 5-8, 2 R, 2 SB, K in doubleheader plus athlete; versatile defender; can play center; above-average speed; questions about bat
Saturday: SO RHP Cory Mazzoni (North Carolina State): 3.1 IP 7 H 8 ER 3 BB 4 K 88-91 FB, touching 92; SL; CB; CU; 6-1, 170 pounds
Saturday: JR RHP Jake Buchanan (North Carolina State): 5.1 IP 5 H 4 ER 5 BB 3 K 87-90 FB; 74-77 near plus CB; nice 76-80 SL; very good 76-79 CU; impressive shown on Cape; 6-0, 205 pounds
Sunday: FR RHP Felix Roque (North Carolina State): 2.1 IP 4 H 1 ER 2 BB 2 K
Chris Schaeffer has been a revelation in the early going for the Wolfpack, hitting a robust .462/.588/.795 (8 BB/1 K) through 39 at bats. Combine that production with personal 2011 favorite Pratt Maynard (.389/.522/.593) and you’ve got yourself one heck of a catching tandem. Mazzoni and Buchanan are similar pitchers in that both get by without overpowering fastballs. Mazzoni’s is better velocity-wise (topping out at 92), but Buchanan has one of the most complete set of secondary pitches in all of college baseball. It’s possible that all three of his offspeed pitches (curve, slider, change) will grade out as average big league pitches or better before the close of the season.
Clemson
Saturday: FR 1B Richie Shaffer (Clemson): 5-10, 2B, 2 RBI, R, 3 K in doubleheader
Saturday: SO SS Brad Miller (Clemson): 3-7, HR, 3B, 3 BB, SB, 6 RBI, 3 R, 3 K in doubleheader
Saturday: SR OF Wilson Boyd (Clemson): 3-8, HR, 2 BB, 3 R, 5 RBI, K in doubleheader
Saturday: JR OF Kyle Parker (Clemson): 3-7, HR, 3 BB, SB, 2 RBI, 6 R, 2 K in doubleheader
Saturday: SO LHP/OF Will Lamb (Clemson): 4 IP 3 H 2 ER 3 BB 2 K
Saturday: FR RHP Dominic Leone (Clemson): 3 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 6 K
Saturday: JR LHP Casey Harman (Clemson): 6 IP 5 H 2 ER 2 BB 3 K
Sunday: JR OF Jeff Schaus (Clemson): 1-3, 2 BB, 3 RBI
Sunday: SO RHP Scott Weismann (Clemson): 6 IP 4 H 3 ER 3 BB 5 K
Clemson boasts one of the deepest, most talented 1-9 lineups in all of college baseball. The way they can mix-and-match different outfielders in and out of the lineup is a thing of beauty. Jeff Schaus and Kyle Parker (who might just be my favorite college position player to watch these days) are as good a 1-2 punch of outfield talent that I can think of off the top of my head. Parker-Grovatt of Virginia are pretty good together. I’m sure there are others that’ll come to me in the next few days as we continue this tour around the conferences. Leone put his 93 MPH fastball to good use in striking out six of nine batters in his dominating relief outing on Saturday.
The Baseball Draft Report 