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2010 MLB Draft: Top 30 College Second Base Prospects
30. Howard JC SO 2B Marcellous Biggins – Raw on the bases, in the field, and at the plate, but when you are this far down the list a plus tool like Biggins’ speed is enough to get noticed.
29. Pacific JR 2B JB Brown – Above-average hitter in the mold of Josh Vitters, Howie Kendrick, and Placido Polanco. Of course, those three names were superior prospects at various points in their respective development; I’m talking about the type of hitter, not necessarily the quality of hitter. Brown is a notorious hacker, but has shown an uncanny ability to swing at pitches he can handle. Hitters like this are typically far too batting average dependent to emerge as successful professionals, but they make for interesting case studies as they progress through the minors.
28. Sam Houston State JR 2B Braden Riley – Another player with an interesting hit tool, but probably not enough power or patience to advance too far up the ladder professionally.
27. Kent State JR 2B Jared Humphreys – Really good athlete with plus speed and great baseball instincts who is capable of playing a variety of positions on the diamond. He’s probably best defensively in the outfield, but his bat players much better at second. Could be an organizational player who wears down a team over
26. Connecticut JR 2B Pierre LePage – Stock is lower here than in other spots, an opinion based largely on his groundball inducing swing plane and lack of meaningful physical strength. In his defense, LePage qualifies as the type of player who grows on you every time you watch him play; pro scouts love guys like that. He can do just enough of everything, and do it all pretty well, but his slap hitting style could get the bat knocked out of his hands as a pro.
25. North Carolina State SR 2B Dallas Poulk – Four years of starter’s at bats have finally paid off for the hard working Poulk. Long considered the inferior prospect to his cousin, Drew, Dallas’s ultra productive 2010 season has finally gotten the attention of area scouts. What they are seeing is another potential organizational player at second, but one with just enough juice in his bat to make a conversion to catching a worthwhile risk.
24. Arizona JR 2B Rafael Valenzuela – Less toolsy, less athletic version of Jared Humphreys, but similar defensive versatility and solid hit tool. What separates Valenzuela is a more professional approach at the plate and, despite less upside, a greater chance of helping a big league team someday.
23. St John’s JR 2B Greg Hopkins – A college third baseman better suited for second in the pros, Hopkins is a very well-rounded ballplayer who grades out with at least fringe average tools in all areas but foot speed. His 45 arm should be enough for second, and his gap power is better suited for the keystone sack than third. Looks like another organizational guy with the upside of a utility player.
22. Central Florida JR 2B Derek Luciano – His name makes me think slick fielding, speed middle infielder, but in reality Luciano is a below-average runner and inconsistent fielder who will have to rely on his lefthanded power if he wants to make it in pro ball. His good, but not great 2010 season has tempered some of the pre-season enthusiasm surrounding his prospect stock.
21. Florida JR 2B Josh Adams– Personal favorite heading into the year has struggled as one of the veteran anchors of a young Gators lineup. His scouting reports are largely favorable, despite the subpar junior season. Like a few other names below him on the list, Adams will be helped by his positional versatility as he tries to make it in the pros as a utility guy.
20. College of Charleston SR 2B Joey Bergman – Any regular reader should know that I wasn’t a Christian Colon fan coming into the year. To fill the void atop my shortstop rankings, I stubbornly tried to convince myself that there was somebody at the college level better. The one name that came up in conversations with people smarter than I am multiple times was Joey Bergman, but always with the caveat that he won’t stick at the position as a pro. Ultimately, nobody could vouch for any player over Colon at shortstop, but the positive vibes I kept hearing when discussing Bergman stuck with me. He’s another versatile defender who can play both up the middle spots, and his high contact rate bodes well going forward.
19. Georgia Southern SR 2B AJ Wirnsberger – The position-less Wirnsberger is on the second base list by default because, well, his bat is good enough to get him drafted, but his glove leaves much to be desired. Unlike a few other defensively flexible players on the list, Wirnsberger projects as a utility guy based more on a reputation as an iffy glove that needs to be hidden rather than a naturally versatile defender. The reason finding him a position is worth the trouble at all is the bat. A hotly recruited prep player, Wirnsberger has good loft on his swing and punishes mistakes, especially when he can get his hands extended. He could find a home behind the plate if a team believes his strong arm will play.
18. Miami SR 2B Scott Lawson – Lawson, Jemile Weeks’ successor at second for Miami, has done nothing but hit since stepping on campus. Above-average hit tool, fantastic plate discipline, ten homer pro pop, and strong defense across the board…can you tell he is a personal favorite? Lawson’s spot on the list begins a stretch of players that I think can play regularly in the big leagues if everything, and I mean everything, breaks right for them.
17. Clemson SR 2B Mike Freeman – Almost an identical player to Scott Lawson, but Freeman provides better footwork in the field and a smidge better speed on the bases. He also possesses one of the quietest, most compact swings I’ve seen at the college level in some time, and has a well earned reputation as a player who doesn’t go the plate without first knowing as much as possible about the opposition. Solid hit tool, above-average speed, good defender, efficient swing, veteran approach….obvious enough we have another personal favorite on our hands, right?
16. Canisius JR 2B Steve McQuail – McQuail has a pro body, pro power, and pro arm, but currently has too many holes in his long, loopy swing to profile as a regular. That said, McQuail’s tools are good enough to believe he has a chance to succeed professionally with the help of a good professional hitting instructor. I know I’m coming off like a broken record here, but when I read certain aspects of McQuail’s scouting reports (athletic, plus arm, only decent at second) I really can’t help but think some pro team has to think of him as a potential catching conversion.
15. Cal State Fullerton JR 2B Corey Jones – Jones is in pretty good company as the best 2010 draft-eligible Titan after a couple of guys named Christian Colon and Gary Brown. Live bat, power potential, and quickly maturing plate discipline, plus the possibility of some time back at his natural shortstop make for an intriguing pro prospect with more upside than your typical college athlete.
14. Southern JR 2B Curtis Wilson– Underrated player who is a good athlete with above-average speed and a really well rounded tool set. Biggest obstacle might be the lack of exposure and lack of one signature standout tool. Funny how a strength (no true weaknesses to his game) can be portrayed as a liability (no eye opening tool) in the next sentence. Speaking of second baseman from Southern, how awesome was Rickie Weeks? His junior year numbers: .500/.619/.987 with 27 steals in 27 tries. He’s probably the second baseman on my all-time favorite non-home team player team.
13. Kentucky JR 2B Chris Bisson– Steady enough to someday ascend to an everyday big league spot, but not currently in possession of any consistent standout tool. Noticing a trend yet? Bisson is lower here than ever I expected, but it’s more about liking the players ranked higher than disliking him. His upside is as a regular .275ish hitter (55) with low double digit homers (40) and above-average plate discipline. Add in a glove that borders on plus and you’ve got yourself a player that big league teams should start thinking about popping in the top ten rounds easy.
12. Kansas SR 2B Robby Price – Differences between Bisson and Price are more perception than reality at this point. Bisson offers up more speed and a little more power projection, but Price has the edge in the field and batting eye. For teams that go overslot both early (first 5 rounds) and late (round 25 and up) in the draft, the middle rounds — 10ish to 25ish — are an area where cheap organizational types are often gobbled up. Price fits that prototype, but is more talented than the typical fringe of the roster taken.
11. California JR 2B BJ Guinn – Might be good enough to hold an everyday job for a team that emphasizes speed and defense up the middle based on those two plus tools alone. The speed is very good, I don’t want to deemphasize his ability there, but it’s Guinn’s glove that really gets your attention. His arm may be a little short for the left side of the diamond, but his crazy range as second can’t help but make you wonder what kind of shortstop he’d be if given the chance.
10. Florida Southern JR 2B Wade Kirkland– For me, a better prospect than Robbie Shields, third rounder in 2009. Shields has more raw power and a better arm, but Kirkland has more present gap power and a more reliable glove.
9. Rutgers JR 2B Brandon Boykin– After excelling against relatively high level northeastern prep competition at Don Bosco Prep, Boykin has finally enjoyed a breakout season with the bat in year three at Rutgers. Friend of a friend of a friend told me the Phillies have him as a high priority mid-round middle infield target, no doubt because of his plus speed and surprisingly springy bat.
8. Cerritos CC SO 2B Joe Terry– The quintessential hitting machine who makes hard contact darn near every time he steps to the plate. He does more than just hit, however; Terry is also an above-average runner with a strong arm who, despite appearing to fight his body sometimes in the field, should settle in as at least an average second baseman with the help of professional coaching. He reinvented himself somewhat in 2010 sacrificing some power for a more patient approach, but the 19th round pick from 2010 has maintained that draft momentum all the same.
7. Alabama JR 2B Ross Wilson– Pretty clear scouting over statistics pick. Wilson has as much power potential and athleticism as any player below him on the list, but has disappointed scouts who expected much more with the bat this spring. His numbers all fall below the three magic thresholds (slugging below .550, more K’s than BB’s, way less than 20 steals), so his placement on this list is a testament to the confidence I have in a plus athlete figuring out how to apply his significant tools before long. High risk, high reward pick that could either emerge as a legit big league caliber starting player or flame out in AA.
6. Virginia JR 2B Phil Gosselin– Remains an average to slightly below-average infielder (capable of playing third and short in a pinch) with an average arm well suited for second base, who many believe may ultimately wind up in the outfield as a pro. That’s what I’ve heard, anyway. I’m not necessarily buying it; heck, his mere presence on this list indicates I think it would be best to keep Gosselin at second as long as possible professionally. He doesn’t have the glove/range for center, and doesn’t have the bat for a corner. If he isn’t a starting caliber outfielder, why not at least give him a shot in the infield? Coming into the year I thought his future was as a big league super-sub, but his big junior year has me thinking his bat could work at second if the glove cooperates.
5. Louisville SR 2B Adam Duvall – I’m as big a Louisville fan (prospect-wise) you’ll find outside of Kentucky, so take the Duvall ranking with a grain of salt. His speed and defense aren’t elite, but he’s strong enough in both areas. It’ll be his bat that gets him his shot as he rises to minor league prominence. Duvall reminds me a lot of great deal of 2009 fourth round pick Derek McCallum. Both players have really nice swings who should each hit for good averages with enough extra-base hits to keep pitchers honest.
4. Stanford JR 2B Colin Walsh – I wrote before the season that Walsh had a really pretty swing that caused scouts to project more power in his future. The future is now. Walsh’s excellent results on the field have finally caught up to his positive scouting reports. He also has an outstanding glove at second that may actually be good enough to work at shortstop, giving hope that he can be a utility infielder in the mold of Marco Scutaro someday. His offensive progression with Stanford actually reminds me of former Cardinal Cord Phelps, but, and this bears repeating, Walsh’s glove is outstanding. Phelps was a third rounder as a hitter with slightly less college production, a bit more physical projection, and a significantly lesser glove. 2010 is a really strong draft, especially near the top, but I’d still say that comparison bodes well for Walsh come draft day.
3. Chipola JC FR 2B LeVon Washington – Thought Washington wasn’t worth a first round grade in 2009, but the Tampa front office’s seal of approval is enough to make any good draft fan reconsider. His plus speed remains a major strength, as does his strong contact skills and intriguing power potential, but his post-injury noodle arm is a concern at any defensive position, even second. Even though I’m still not personally sold on the bat playing at higher levels, there is little denying Washington’s four-tool upside.
2. West Virginia JR 2B Jedd Gyorko – I’m not a scout, so I try not to pretend to be one if at all possible, but, if you’ll indulge me just this one, I have to point out the marked difference between Gyorko’s 2010 swing and his 2009 swing. The majority of his damage last season came on guesswork when he’d get nearly all his weight shifted up on his front foot and hack away. His stride is way more efficient this year, with a vastly improved, far more balanced load and launch. Very encouraging progress. Defensively, Gyorko will never be known for his range, but his soft hands should enable him to make all the plays at balls hit at or near him. The two most prevalent (and optimistic) comps are Kevin Youkilis and Dan Uggla, but ultimately Gyorko’s power upside pales in comparison. For me, Gyorko’s upside is that of the new Ben Zobrist.
1. Ball State JR 2B Kolbrin Vitek – Modest son of a gun I am, I’d never toot my own horn about getting out ahead of a prospect’s emergence, but, seeing as I’m wrong 95% of the time, give or take, I’d figure now is as good a time as any to point out this gem from early January: “Vitek’s tools all grade out similarly to fellow small school sensation Bryce Brentz. They both have plus bat speed, good plate discipline, and plus power potential. They are also both two-way players who have had success on the mound collegiately, though only Vitek could actually pull of the trick of being a legit draft prospect as either a hitter or pitcher. In addition to a glove/arm combination that will definitely play at third professionally, Vitek does all the little things well that make scouts (and wannabe’s like me) very happy. He is a sensational base runner, works deep counts, and has one of the coolest names this side of Yordy Cabrera. Vitek’s utter dominance of the Great Lakes League this past summer sealed the deal for me. He may not be a first rounder in June, but he is as good a bet as any college hitter in the 2010 to be an impact player in the big leagues.” Ha, I called him “Bryce Brentz without a publicist.” Genius prognosticating and comic gold. The myth of the next Jim Callis/Steve Martin super-hybrid has finally been realized.
Bryce Harper – The Importance of Makeup
There have been whispers out of Las Vegas for months now that presumptive first overall pick Bryce Harper’s, shall we say, “intensively competitive” and “self-assured” manner wasn’t playing all that well with the scouts assigned to watch his every step. This past week, however, those whispers grew just a teensy bit louder after Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus dropped the following in a piece about the lingering questions some talent evaluators still have about Harper’s lock on the top overall spot in the draft:
The Makeup: This should not be underrated. It’s impossible to find any talent evaluator who isn’t blown away by Harper’s ability on the field, but it’s equally difficult to find one who doesn’t genuinely dislike the kid. One scout called him among the worst amateur players he’s ever seen from a makeup standpoint, with top-of-the-scale arrogance, a disturbingly large sense of entitlement, and on-field behavior that includes taunting opponents. “He’s just a bad, bad guy,” said one front-office official. “He’s basically the anti-Joe Mauer.” How this plays into the negotiation or future evaluation is yet to be determined, as history has shown us that the bigger talent a player is, the more makeup issues teams will deal with. Bench players can’t afford to be problems, but plenty of teams happily put up with difficult superstars.
One of the most interesting and underrated aspects of the entire draft process is the depth in which area scouts go to uncover as much information about the prospects they are assigned to cover. If the NFL Scouting Combine really is the “world’s largest job interview,” as I’ve heard it referred to in the past, then the amateur scouting period in baseball is certainly in the running for the longest. Major League Baseball is a billion dollar industry with a finite number of job openings. Before investing large sums of money in a new employee, you’d better be darn sure you’ve done everything in your power to ensure that you are hiring a person you trust can get the job done. To that end, I have no qualms whatsoever with the abstract idea of “makeup.” Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of a player’s performance on the field is priority one, but that same evaluation of a player’s on-field abilities must be weighed against certain general personality parameters (“makeup”), especially traits that are believed could potentially alter future job performance.
Deciding on what traits could potentially alter job performance is entirely up to the individual doing the evaluating, I suppose. For me, “makeup” boils down to two main sets of questions. I first want to know whether or not the player is receptive to coaching. Will he put in the work to improve his game? Is he willing to listen when asked to consider trying a different approach or technique? Can he subjugate his ego long enough to take legitimate instruction from somebody paid to help him succeed? I then want to know how the player will react when things don’t go well. A large number of top amateur players, especially the high schoolers, have never experienced any kind of sustained stretch of significant athletic failure. How does the high school star who only knows the ups of hitting .600 and being the big man on campus react when suddenly hitting under .200 while riding lonely buses from Danville to Pulaski? This concern doubles back into the initial set of questions; when a player struggles, and it truly is a matter of when and not if, can he accept the professional coaching and support designed to help him become a big leaguer?
As far as the actual quotes cited in Goldstein’s piece, well, it appears to me as though an opportunity was missed. To the front-office official who called Harper “a bad, bad guy,” I’d really want to know if, based on the perceived seriousness of such an accusation, he would have the fortitude to go to his boss and recommend another player over Harper atop the draft board. Do these talent evaluators so willing to go on record about Harper’s makeup genuinely believe his “bad, bad” personality to be such a potential problem to his development that they would not want their employer to draft him? Are these personality issues so severe that the unnamed front-office officials don’t believe Harper will ever be able to fully harness his immense physical gifts? Or do the makeup concerns represent something closer to an annoyance, one not quite large enough to prevent Harper from superstardom on the field, but always lurking on the periphery as a warning not to do anything to upset the mercurial franchise player? I’d like to ask the front-office official whether he thought Harper’s makeup concerns were closer stylistically to Barry Bonds’ (entitled jerk off the field, destroyer of opposing teams’ dreams on it) or somebody like Darryl Strawberry’s (victimized by personal demons so severe that his on-field play suffered despite unrivaled physical talent)? As much as I think I know the answer to those questions already, I’d genuinely like to know how the front-office official would respond when pressed. Of course, that will never happen.
As someone who follows the draft almost exclusively as an outsider in the industry, I’m not privy to the kind of front-office member chatter that others can claim. I’m left to make the majority of my judgments on publicly available information. I won’t ever profess to having any insider knowledge about Bryce Harper’s personality or general on-field temperament other than what anybody else out there can read or see with their own two eyes. That said, Harper’s performance both on and off the field this season serves as a pretty strong argument in his favor. If I’m going on facts alone, the simple fact is Bryce Harper is having one heck of a year playing baseball. To accomplish all that has done on the field against players sometimes three or four years older while simulatenously dealing with the biggest amateur baseball media circus since, well I guess since Stephen Strasburg last season, but before that since as long as anybody can remember, is truly a remarkable feat. His on-field performance has exceeded even the most optimistic of projections and the coaching staff at Southern Nevada has been effusive in their praise of the kid. Really, what more can anybody realistically ask for a 17 year old catching prospect already dubbed the LeBron James of baseball playing wood bat junior college ball with the eyes of the industry watching his every move?
Since the article was published, by the way, Harper has put up the following batting line while splitting time in right field and behind the plate:
7-14, 4 HR, 2B, 13 RBI, 8 R, 2 SB, 1 BB, 1 K
That’s good for a weekend line of .500/.533/1.429. If Washington could fast forward the next six weeks and take Harper first overall tomorrow, they’d do it.
Alternate Reality MLB Mock Draft 2010: The NFL Takes Over
Roger Goodell rules the NFL with an iron fist, does he not? After finally tiring of wielding his unprecedented power of America’s Game, the commissioner now has set his sights on making big changes to America’s Pastime. First change? Unifying the draft order between the two sports. That’s right. This year’s MLB Draft order will be taken directly from the recently completed 2010 NFL Draft. As soon as the Rams went on the clock last night, so did the Cardinals. When the Lions celebrated taking the draft’s best player with the second overall pick, scouts for the Tigers were pouring over scouting reports of players they never believed they’d have a chance to get under the previous draft rules. Get the idea? Good. Prepare for more inanity with yet another Friday edition of an Alternate Reality Mock Draft!
1.1 St. Louis Rams/Cardinals: C Bryce Harper – Southern Nevada
As one of the few who believes Jimmy Clausen will be a better pro QB than Sam Bradford, allow me to express my hypocritical bewilderment that anybody in his/her right mind could think of a realistic scenario where Bryce Harper does not go first overall in the 2010 MLB Draft. The very thought of Harper not going first overall is pure lunacy, but, as mentioned, I realize that such a statement is at least a tad hypocritical coming from somebody who prefers a second round quarterback to the consensus number one pick in the draft. I’ve been told by certain fellow NFL Draft nuts that Bradford is leap years ahead of Clausen as a prospect; these certain people are ridiculously devoted to following college football and the NFL Draft, and, for whatever it’s worth, have dozens more meaningful contacts within the NFL than I do within MLB. They tell me that all, or at the very least nearly all, 32 teams have Bradford above Clausen on their boards. They tell me that certain teams viewed Bradford as the best QB prospect since Eli Manning. You’d think I’d be smart and defer to their expertise, but…no. I’m stupid. I admit it, but, based on what I’ve seen and read, I just like Clausen more. The doubts about his game are less significant to me than the ones surrounding Bradford. I get that some people may feel the same way about the gigantic risks associated with taking a prospect likely to demand more money than any silly junior college catcher should ever ask for. That’s fine. I’m being stupid about Clausen, so they can be stupid about Harper. Who am I to judge?
1.2 Detroit Lions/Tigers: RHP Jameson Taillon – The Woodlands HS (Texas)
Fireballing righthanded pitcher goes to Detroit with an early round selection. Feels vaguely familiar, doesn’t it? Taillon going second overall isn’t quite the slam dunk that picking Ndamukong Suh was, but it’s pretty close. Verlander-Porcello-Scherzer-Turner-Taillon. Scary.
1.3 Tampa (Bay) Buccaneers/Rays: RHP AJ Cole – Oviedo HS (Florida)
Stubbornly sticking with Cole as the second prep pitcher off the board, but slowly beginning to soften my once Gerald McCoy-esque strong position on the subject. Am I forcing these NFL Draft analogies a little bit? Anyway, as for the Tampa connection to the pick, well, I’d be lying if I had any actual idea what direction they’d go with their pick of any non-Harper/non-Taillon player on the board available. The Rays have very few easily discernible draft patterns, with perhaps the one exception being an emphasis on long-term upside stemming from faith in their magic touch with in-house player development. Cole or Karsten Whitson certainly fit the bill on the upside tip, and I was tempted to give them a bat like Manny Machado or Nick Castellanos. Ultimately, Baby Verlander is the pick.
1.4 Washington Redskins/Nationals: LHP Drew Pomeranz – Mississippi
Stephen Strasburg is joined by the potentially quick moving Pomeranz as a lethal 1-2 combination atop the Nationals rotation. If the presence of two ace caliber pitchers can’t get the fans out to the ballpark in Washington, nothing short of actually moving the Redskins back to the District will.
1.5 Kansas City Chiefs/Royals: RHP Karsten Whitson – Chipley HS (Florida)
Back in December I wrote this about Whitson: “Whitson, currently ranked fourth in this little subgroup, has a potential dynamite 1-2 punch with his fastball (sitting 91-93, hitting 95-96) and slider (works best in the mid-80s, but has shown up as a less effective slurvy high-70s CB at times), but I think his mechanics will need something pretty close to a complete overhaul as a professional.”
Sounds like the slider has tightened up a great deal this spring and his changeup is much improved. It goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway – that’s very, very good news for his prospect stock. Next stop, consensus top ten pick!
1.6 Seattle Seahawks/Mariners: 3B Zack Cox – Arkansas
Wanted to give Jack Z an elite projectable high school arm or a plus defender at a premium defensive position, but, alas, no such player exists at this point in the draft. Cox, far and away the best college position player in 2010, is a swell consolation prize and, as an added bonus, gives the Seattle system someone with much needed power upside.
1.7 Cleveland Browns/Indians: RHP Deck McGuire – Georgia Tech
Both Cleveland and Kansas City stinking in both baseball and football really make this mock easy for me. I really like McGuire to Cleveland in a real mock, so it only makes sense to stick with him here.
1.8 Oakland Raiders/Athletics: RHP Anthony Ranaudo – Louisiana State
Buffalo and Jacksonville, owners of the next two picks in the NFL Draft’s first round, will both have to enjoy CJ Spiller and Tyson Alaualu instead of partaking in my fake NFL/MLB mock amalgalmation here. Injured college starting pitchers are the new Moneyball! I may not like a healthy Ranaudo as much as many seem to, but even I can’t quibble with a pro team scouting him and scouting him and scouting him until they are happy enough to slap a top ten grade on him. I’m opinionated, no doubt, but I also know my limitations; Ranaudo may not be my guy, but I can at least appreciate why some team is likely to grade him out as a top ten prospect.
1.9 Denver Broncos/Colorado Rockies: OF Austin Wilson – Harvard-Westlake HS (California)
Broncos? NFL? Draft? That can only mean one thing! TebowTebowTebowTebowTebowTebowTebowTebowTebow…
1.10 Miami Dolphins/Florida Marlins: SS Manny Machado – Brito HS (Florida)
Not really sure how well Machado would fit in Parcells’ 3-4, but he could potentially serve as a long-term successor to Hanley Ramirez in case the Marlins MVP ever has to move off the position. Also, he’s a local product and, let’s face it, lazy writers love plugging in local players to their nearest pro team when they have no other idea how to finish a mock…
More Data – April 22, 2010
Random sampling of some of the players I’ve kept track of so far this year…
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School – Year – Pitcher – % of batted ball outs classified as “ground balls”
San Diego SR RHP AJ Griffin – 31%
Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis – 71%
Texas JR RHP Brandon Workman – 55%
Louisiana State JR RHP Austin Ross – 38%
South Carolina JR RHP Sam Dyson – 64%
San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair – 50%
San Diego JR LHP Sammy Solis – 56%
California JR RHP Dixon Anderson – 67%
Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn – 70%
Arkansas JR RHP Brett Eibner – 43%
Florida State JR LHP John Gast – 67%
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Stanford SO LHP Brett Mooneyham – 66%
UCLA SO RHP Trevor Bauer – 43%
Vanderbilt SO RHP Jack Armstrong – 61%
Data – Friday Night Starting Pitchers
Something about Clemson’s Friday night lineup caught my eye recently. Anything about the following configuration of names look unusual?
Chris Epps
Mike Freeman
Jeff Schaus
Kyle Parker
Wilson Boyd
John Hinson
Brad Miller
John Nester
Will Lamb
Casey Harman
No? How about when you look at it from the official Clemson baseball website? Anything?
It is entirely likely that I’m 100% insane, but the way the names are configured in that lineup is just a little bit too perfect. You could draw a line down the right side of the last names and almost get a perfectly straight line. It would look darn near perfect if not for Mike Freeman near the top and starting pitcher Casey Harman at the bottom; their names each have 11 letters total, first and last.
The entire lineup in total letters (first and last name, including the pitcher):
9 – 11 – 10 – 10 – 10 – 10 – 10 – 10 – 8 – 11
The third through eighth batters in the lineup all have exactly ten letters in their names! Amazing!
It’s the little things in life we find amusing sometimes, right? Thank you all for humoring me, now please do enjoy some exclusive ground out percentages from a sampling of college baseball’s finest Friday night starting pitchers.
School – Year – Pitcher – % of batted ball outs classified as “ground balls”
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North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey – 69%
Notre Dame JR RHP Brian Dupra – 65%
Miami JR LHP Chris Hernandez – 64%
Kentucky JR LHP Logan Darnell – 64%
Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale – 62%
Mississippi JR LHP Drew Pomeranz – 52%
Tennessee JR LHP Bryan Morgado – 51%
Ohio State JR RHP Alex Wimmers – 50%
San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair – 50%
Georgia JR RHP Justin Grimm – 46%
Missouri JR RHP Nick Tepesch – 45%
Louisiana State JR RHP Anthony Ranaudo – 41%
***
Vanderbilt SO RHP Sonny Gray – 72%
Texas SO RHP Taylor Jungmann – 69%
UCLA SO RHP Gerrit Cole – 59%
Rice SO LHP Taylor Wall – 55%
2010 MLB Draft: Top 30 College First Base Prospects
Alternate Reality MLB Mock Draft 2010: The Name Game
Same warning as last year before we go on…
Don’t freak out, this isn’t a “real” mock draft.
We did this last year, and we’re trying it again here in 2010 as a Friday feature leading up until the draft. Alternate Reality Mock Drafts. I’ve got some pretty fun ones planned this year, but we’ll kick things off with perhaps the most nonsensical version – the Name Game. Let’s pretend for a second that Bud Selig is utterly incompetent, out of touch, and flat out bad at his job. I know it’s a stretch, but try your best. Now let’s pretend that Bud’s latest executive decision was to announce that all big league clubs could only draft players with last names that share the first letter of the city in which they play. Got it? Good. Ignoring for a minute how utterly stupid and arbitrary such a decision would be, let’s see how this Alternate Reality Mock Draft would look if such rules were in place…
1.1 Washington Nationals: OF Austin Wilson – Harvard Westlake HS (California)
Missing out on Harper stings, but the Nationals do the best they can to recover by going with the high upside outfielder over an impressive field of righthanded pitching prospects. Wilson instead of Karsten Whitson, Brandon Workman, and Alex Wimmers is a gamble, but one that could give Washington close to 1-1 value if the stars align. I also like Wilson in this spot because it would present one of the most interesting signing decisions that I can remember. Does Wilson, the Stanford commit who seems like at least a 50/50 shot to wind up on campus next fall, stick to his academic guns in the face of the highest honor an amateur ballplayer can achieve? The pressure, prestige, attention, and cold hard cash that comes with going first overall would really test Wilson’s signability.
Last Year’s Pick: RHP Zack Wheeler
1.2 Pittsburgh Pirates: LHP James Paxton – Kentucky
Drew Pomeranz has emerged as a front runner for the Pirates pick in the real world, but I’ll change things up and go with my favorite 2010 lefthanded pitcher for the sake of updating his current playing status. I mean, Pomeranz has gotten plenty of digital ink spilled his way in recent days and I’m sure, nice guy that he is and all, he wouldn’t mind sharing the spotlight just this once with a fellow SEC lefty in need of some love. Paxton will pitch this season for the Grand Prairie AirHogs. His season begins May 14. His manager will be none other than former big leaguer Pete Incaviglia. I see no way that this ends in anything other than excellence for all involved.
Last Year’s Pick: LHP Matt Purke
1.3 Baltimore Orioles: RHP Cameron Bedrosian – East Coweta HS (Georgia)
Surprisingly slim pickings here, but Baltimore bypasses the alliterative choice in Bryce Brentz — why take the Markakis knock-off when you’ve got the real deal already? — to take a personal favorite of mine, Cameron Bedrosian. Kyle Blair, another favorite of mine, also received some thought here. Some insight into my thought process on this pick. First, I thought about Brentz, then I thought about Bedrosian, then back to Brentz, then Blair, and finally back to Bedrosian. All that thinking made me tired and cranky, so…that’s about all I’ve got for Baltimore. On the plus side, at least I didn’t make any snide remarks about Billy Rowell like I did last year. Progress!
Last Year’s Pick: 3B Bobby Borchering
1.4 Kansas City Royals: RHP Dan Klein – UCLA
Nary a first round lock in the K player pool, although the emergence of Klein at least gives the Royals a potential successor to Joakim Soria if/when they either trade him or move him to the rotation. In fact, and I promise I’m not just doing this for the sake of convenience, but Klein’s four-pitch mix (change, curve, slider) and low-90s fastball actually remind me a little bit of the erstwhile Royals closer. Soria’s curve is better than Klein’s, Klein’s change is better than Soria’s, but each player has done impressive things at the back end of the bullpen with the stuff more typical of a successful starting pitcher. Haven’t heard any talk of Klein moving to the rotation yet, but it’s something that wouldn’t surprise me as we get closer to the day of the draft.
Oh, and again I’m not saying this just to make the small but vocal Golden Gophers reading contingent happy, I strongly considered Mike Kvasnicka for this spot before settling on Klein.
No Pick Last Year
1.5 Cleveland Indians: 3B Zack Cox – Arkansas
More depth with the C’s than just about any other letter here in the top ten. I’m going off my own personal big board by jumping Cox over four, count ’em four, prep players I like more. With apologies to Nick Castellanos, AJ Cole, Dylan Covey, and Kaleb Cowart, Zack Cox just feels like the best fit based on what Cleveland has done in the past. I know I’m shuffling some players around here, but I like the thought of a LaPorta-Chisenhall-Cabrera-Cox infield.
No Pick Last Year
1.6 Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Stetson Allie – St. Edward HS (Ohio)
This pick was Robbie Aviles for a solid week in my head before I was reminded of the existence of Stetson Allie in conversation last night. In said conversation it was intimated to me that Allie’s commitment to North Carolina is a lot stronger than has been reported. I don’t typically pass along any sort of insider information like that because, well, I don’t typically have access to it (nor do I think anybody should listen to some dummy like me just because I like to pretend I’m some great big draft authority), but there you go. I’m putting ten bucks on Allie winding up in Chapel Hill, but, really, and I can’t stress this enough, what the heck do I know?
No Pick Last Year
1.7 New York Mets: RHP Jimmy Nelson – Alabama
Nelson is a fastball-slider pitcher with the modest upside of a generic big league middle reliever. For a team picking seventh overall, that would most certainly qualify as bad news. Good news for the Mets, however, comes in the form of the money saved with Nelson’s significantly underslot bonus. That’s important, you see, because (as I assume) Fred Wilpon will happily tell you, the Earth will fly right off its axis and crash straight into the Sun if any Metropolitan draft pick is signed to an overslot contract. Anything to keep a smile on the face of the Commish, right?
No Pick Last Year
1.8 Houston Astros: C Bryce Harper – Southern Nevada
Without piling on too much, I’ll just say that I’m pleased to see something go Houston’s way in this version of the mock. To paraphrase a bad joke I made when doing this last year, no truth to the rumor that the Astros organization is petitioning Major League Baseball to adopt my silly draft rules in time . To take the bad joke a step too far, Houston may want to rethink making the Name Game rule permanent. It would be a real shame to miss out on Anthony Rendon after they get the number one pick next year…
No Pick Last Year
1.9 San Diego Padres: LHP Chris Sale – Florida Gulf Coast
Sale is the right pick, but Sammy Solis would have been a much cuter pick. San Diego to San Diego? Torero to Padre? Cunningham Stadium to Petco Park? All too perfect. As it stands now, Sale to San Diego is actually not a bad pick for a real life mock draft, assuming he is still on the board.
Last Year’s Pick: RHP Tanner Scheppers
1.10 Oakland Athletics: SS Justin O’Connor – Cowan HS (Indiana)
Prep players from both Ohio and Indiana represented in the top ten of a mock. As somebody who has always lived somewhere cold, I appreciate players from chilly locales succeeding, even if it’s only in my Alternate Reality Mock Draft. I know the momentum connecting O’Connor and catching is pretty much unstoppable at this point, but I wonder why it doesn’t seem like anybody has stopped and asked, hey, why not just let him keep playing shortstop, a pretty darn important position in its own right, until he can’t play it anymore? I suppose many don’t think he can stick there as a pro, but I think he’s got the tools to play up the middle professionally. I don’t hate the catcher idea (quite the opposite, really), but O’Connor is a shortstop in my mind until proven otherwise.
Data, Data, Data 2 – Revenge of the Worm Killers
Yesterday we looked at some of the flyballiest of college baseball’s most flyballing flyball pitchers. Today, the opposite. I limited it to potential first round candidates only, but now feel guilty about leaving out other strong groundball pitchers like Miami’s Chris Hernandez (68%), Cal’s Dixon Anderson (67%), and Florida State’s John Gast (70%). With that out of the way and my guilt finally assuaged, here are five potential first round starting pitchers with groundball percentages greater than 50%…
North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey – 78%
Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale – 67%
Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis – 75%
Texas JR RHP Brandon Workman – 62%
Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn – 71%
And a pair of top-five 2011 prospects because it’s Friday…
Texas SO RHP Taylor Jungmann – 75%
Vanderbilt SO RHP Sonny Gray – 71%
Data, Data, Data
Big couple of days ahead at the real life, steady paycheck job, so today we’ll dig deeper into the data compiled so far and update the groundball/flyball pitcher numbers that pop up here on the site from time to time. Today let’s take a closer look at five potential first round starting pitchers with groundout percentages less than 50%…
Mississippi JR LHP Drew Pomeranz – 48%
LSU JR RHP Anthony Ranaudo – 44%
Georgia Tech JR RHP Deck McGuire – 49%
San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair – 38%
Arkansas JR RHP Brett Eibner – 47%
2010 MLB Draft: Who Will Be Drafted? ACC Edition
2010 Draftable ACC Talent
- Duke JR SS Jake Lemmerman
- Duke SR LHP Chris Manno
- Duke SR RHP Mike Ness
- Duke JR RHP Michael Seander
- Virginia JR RHP Cody Winiarski
- Virginia JR 2B Phil Gosselin
- Virginia JR OF Jarrett Parker
- Virginia JR RHP Tyler Wilson
- Virginia JR RHP Robert Morey
- Virginia JR OF Dan Grovatt
- Virginia JR C/1B/OF Kenny Swab
- Virginia SR SS Tyler Cannon
- Virginia JR RHP Kevin Arico
- North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey
- North Carolina JR RHP Colin Bates
- North Carolina JR RHP Patrick Johnson
- North Carolina JR RHP Bryant Gaines
- North Carolina JR 1B Dillon Hazlett
- North Carolina JR C Jesse Wierzbicki
- North Carolina SR SS Ryan Graepel
- Georgia Tech JR RHP Deck McGuire
- Georgia Tech JR RHP Kevin Jacob
- Georgia Tech JR 3B Derek Dietrich
- Georgia Tech JR RHP Brandon Cumpton
- Georgia Tech JR C Cole Leonida
- Georgia Tech SR 1B Tony Plagman
- Georgia Tech JR OF Jeff Rowland
- Georgia Tech JR OF Chase Burnette
- Georgia Tech JR 2B Tony Nichols
- Georgia Tech JR LHP Zach Brewster
- Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn
- Virginia Tech JR OF Austin Wates
- Virginia Tech SR C Steve Domecus
- Virginia Tech SO RHP Mathew Price
- Virginia Tech JR SS Tim Smalling
- Virginia Tech SR C Anthony Sosnoskie
- North Carolina State SR 2B Dallas Poulk
- North Carolina State SR OF Kyle Wilson
- North Carolina State JR LHP Grant Sasser
- North Carolina State JR 2B Russell Wilson
- North Carolina State JR RHP Jake Buchanan
- North Carolina State JR RHP Rey Cotilla
- Miami JR C Yasmani Grandal
- Miami JR LHP Eric Erickson
- Miami JR LHP Chris Hernandez
- Miami SR RHP David Gutierrrez
- Miami SR 2B Scott Lawson
- Miami SR RHP Jason Santana
- Florida State JR OF Tyler Holt
- Florida State JR OF Mike McGee
- Florida State SR SS Stephen Cardullo
- Florida State JR RHP Geoff Parker
- Florida State JR LHP John Gast
- Wake Forest JR OF Steven Brooks
- Boston College SR OF Robbie Anston
- Boston College JR RHP Kevin Moran
- Boston College JR 1B Mickey Wiswall
- Boston College JR LHP Pat Dean
- Maryland SR LHP John Dischert
- Maryland JR RHP Brett Harman
- Maryland JR LHP Adam Kolarek
- Clemson JR OF Jeff Schaus
- Clemson JR OF Kyle Parker
- Clemson SR 2B Mike Freeman
- Clemson JR LHP Casey Harman
- Clemson SR OF Wilson Boyd
- Clemson JR RHP Josh Thrailkill
The Near-Misses
…or prospects capable of playing their way into draft consideration this June or next…
- (Virginia JR OF John Barr)
- (North Carolina JR OF Ben Bunting)
- (North Carolina JR RHP Greg Holt)
- (North Carolina JR RHP Nate Striz)
- (Georgia Tech SR RHP Andrew Robinson)
- (Georgia Tech SR OF Jay Dantzler)
- (Virginia Tech JR LHP Justin Wright)
- (Virginia Tech SR RHP Ben Rowen)
- (North Carolina State SR LHP Alex Sogard)
- (North Carolina State JR RHP Rob Chamra)
- (North Carolina State JR C Chris Schaeffer)
- (North Carolina State JR LHP John Lambert)
- (North Carolina State JR LHP Nick Rice)
- (North Carolina State JR OF Ryan Mathews)
- (North Carolina State SO RHP Gary Gillheeney)
- (Miami SR RHP Taylor Wulf)
- (Miami JR OF Chris Pelaez)
- (Miami JR LHP Iden Nazario)
- (Miami SR OF Ryan Perry)
- (Florida State JR RHP Daniel Bennett)
- (Florida State SO OF Taiwan Easterling)
- (Florida State JR RHP Tyler Everett)
- (Florida State JR 3B Stuart Tapley)
- (Wake Forest JR LHP Mark Adzick)
- (Wake Forest SR C Mike Murray)
- (Boston College JR 2B Matt Hamlet)
- (Maryland SR RHP Ian Schwalenberg)
- (Clemson SO 3B John Hinson)
- (Clemson JR OF Chris Epps)
- (Clemson JR C John Nester)
- (Clemson JR OF Addison Johnson)
2010 MLB Draft – First Round Names To (Probably) Know
Guessing the 32 names expected to go in the first round two and a half months in advance probably isn’t an activity that makes a whole lot of sense, but, hey, why start making sense now?
Last year I threw out 30 names that I thought would be first rounders in 2009. Remember that? Good times. I hit on a whopping 17 of them. I’m not sure what the success rate should be, but I get the feeling that 17 of 30 isn’t particularly good. The players I had in the first round who weren’t first rounders in the end included Tyler Skaggs, Tanner Scheppers, Luke Bailey, Austin Maddox, Rich Poythress, James Paxton, DJ LeMahieu, Kentrail Davis, Trent Stevenson, Alex Wilson, Ryan Berry, Andy Oliver, and Jason Stoffel. The majority of those misses make me feel like a real dope in hindsight.
Poythress, LeMahieu, and Davis were all non-elite college bats that I pushed up the draft board in large part to being near the best of a weak college crop of hitters. Lesson #1: Teams will let the draft board come to them early on rather than reach for the better players at the draft’s weakest positions. Stevenson (hopped on his bandwagon after reading a lot of positive early season buzz), Wilson (another early season helium guy and the reason I was too scared to put Barret Loux on the list), Berry (really liked his glasses), Oliver (didn’t really like him, but succumbed to peer pressure), and Stoffel (figured big league teams would reach on a reliever in the late first) were all part of my pitching misses.
Skaggs, Scheppers, Bailey, Maddox, and Paxton aren’t misses I’m too stressed out about for a variety of reasons, mostly because I think they are all darn good prospects that are better than some of the players taken in the first round. Yes, I think quite highly of myself, why do you ask? Skaggs’s prospect stock was hurt by a better than usual lefthanded pitching crop, Scheppers and Bailey both had major injury concerns, Maddox fell at least partly because of signability concerns, and Paxton’s stock shot up late in the draft season, but never made it quite high enough to get into the first.
Enough about 2009, let’s see if we can do better here in 2010. First up, the best of the best. I’d call them locks if I had more of a backbone, but will instead hide behind the quotes. “Locks” it is.
2010 MLB Draft First Round “Locks”
C – Bryce Harper
1B –
2B –
SS – Christian Colon, Manny Machado, Yordy Cabrera
3B – Zack Cox, Nick Castellanos
CF –
OF – Bryce Brentz, Austin Wilson
RHP – Deck McGuire, Jesse Hahn, Anthony Ranaudo, Jameson Taillon, AJ Cole, Karsten Whitson, Dylan Covey
LHP – Drew Pomeranz, Chris Sale
I originally wanted to leave it at the locks and call it a day, but what’s the harm in stretching this out to attach 32 names to the 32 first round spots? My next set of guesses includes the following names:
SS Justin O’Conner, CF Chevy Clarke, OF Josh Sale, RHP Stetson Allie, RHP DeAndre Smelter, RHP Kaleb Cowart, RHP Kevin Gausman, RHP Matt Harvey, RHP Brandon Workman, RHP Alex Wimmers, and LHP James Paxton
17 “locks” plus the 11 new names brings us to 28 potential first rounders so far. Four more to go. Hmm. Let’s see what four names we can pull out of the old magic hat here…
College Catcher, C Stefan Sabol, CF Angelo Gumbs, RHP Cam Bedrosian
Wouldn’t it be weird if there was a draft-eligible player by the name College Catcher? It would be like my favorite player in the non-Jordan licensed NBA Live 97, Roster Player. To add to the realism, I’d always look at the R.Player in the lineup and just pretend his first name was Reggie. Anyway, College Catcher isn’t actually a real person, but if he was real than I’d mentally change his name to Charlie Catcher whenever I’d see C.Catcher in the lineup. So who will be the 2010 draft’s Charlie Catcher? Odds are good that at least one of the two big college catchers from the junior class will go in this year’s first, I think. That’s why I wimped out and hedged my bets by reserving a first round spot for “college catcher of your choosing.” Feel free to pencil in Miami’s Yasmani Grandal and/or LSU’s Micah Gibbs if that’s the direction you see things going this June. Contrarian that I am, my pick isn’t one of the two junior catchers but rather UC Riverside’s sophomore draft-eligible backstop Rob Brantly. What a twist!
Sabol is a favorite due to his strong bat and great athleticism, but I’m reminded of my fondness of Austin Maddox last year and I get a little gun-shy. Sabol is a much better athlete and runner, but the two share enough similarities with the bat to give me pause. Gumbs gets a mention for two reasons. First, and I’ll be as succinct here as possible, all five tools are first round quality. Easy enough. The second reason I’m sticking here is my belief he fits the mold of the type of player the Phillies could target at pick 27. Then again, Philadelphia’s front office recently came out and specifically mentioned third base and catcher as positions of organizational need that will be addressed this June. Bedrosian’s long been a favorite, so might as well stick with him.
2010 Draft-Eligible Pitching: Groundout Percentage
The week ahead is wide open, so let me know if there’s anything you’d like to see. I’m currently working on a couple of high school position rankings, more college stuff (mostly position lists by conference), an updated big board, and a brand spanking new mock draft. With so much half-finished content staring me in the face, I’m happy to put something on hold to do something new and exciting as a change of pace, so if there is anything new and exciting you want to see, please let me know and I’ll make it happen.
Because I hate posts that don’t have much to do with baseball, how about a little content? The title says it all, except for the brief and wondrous snippets of 2011 draft-eligible players included (both 2011s would be second on their lists, by the way). The data I have doesn’t include every pitcher in college baseball, but rather a sampling of some of the biggest names…I’m only one man, after all. Like last time, if you have a player you are curious about, let me know.
Highest Percentage of Groundball Outs
1) North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey
2) Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis
3) Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale
HM) 2011 draft-eligible Texas SO RHP Taylor Jungmann
Lowest Percentage of Groundball Outs
1) San Diego SR RHP AJ Griffin
2) San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair
3) LSU JR RHP Austin Ross
HM) Cal State Fullerton SO RHP Tyler Pill
2010 MLB Draft: Pac-10 Shortstops
It’s purely coincidental that the first three conferences I’ve looked at have exactly four potential draft picks who play shortstop apiece. Weird. The order of these four really could be picked out of a hat and look about as good as what I’ve got here; we’re talking about a group of tightly bunched, similarly talented future utility guys, so I guess it makes sense that they are so close. Let’s see who is worth knowing in the Pac-10…
Stanford JR SS Jake Schlander
Height, Weight: 6-2, 195
FR – .232/.307/.256 (24 BB/41 K; 3-3 SB)
SO – .232/.288/.324 (16 BB/41 K; 3-4 SB)
JR – .283/.420/.472 (12 BB/7 K; 1-1 SB)
Jake Schlander can really pick it at shortstop, but his inability to make consistent contact, hit for power, and get on base regularly through his first two college seasons has put a damper on his pro prospects. He’s started since day one at Stanford, putting up lines of .232/.307/.256 and .232/.285/.324 in his freshman and sophomore year. Those are stunningly bad numbers. However, as mentioned, Schlander can really pick it at shortstop. I mean, he can really, really pick it. Plus range, flawless hands, strong arm; defensively, Schlander has it all. His defense is so good that I felt comfortable predicting that he’d be on draft boards back when his offensive numbers were, and I say this with all due respect, straight up horrible. One month into the college season Schlander’s bat has show such unexpected signs of life that it may be time to start recalibrating his final draft position’s ceiling. Before the season I wrote this: “Expect a forward thinking front office, maybe Seattle or Boston, to pop Schlander late (round 35+) against all offensive odds.” If the offensive gains can be maintained, Schlander could see his draft stock jump up 20 rounds. Too drastic a reaction to a small sample of early season plate appearances? Perhaps, but I’m alright with jumping the gun a bit when the tools are there to justify it.
Washington State JR SS Shea Vucinich
Height, Weight: 6-0, 183
FR – .316/.357/.440 (8 BB/34 K; 2-5 SB)
SO – .230/.341/.377 (27 BB/41 K; 8-10 SB)
JR – .358/.460/.604 (6 BB/13 K; 3-4 SB)
Reports on Vucinich’s defense vary depending on the day, but most seem to agree his upside with the glove is significant. I’ve even heard some evaluators touting him as a potential plus defender up the middle. He also has shown good power potential throughout his career with the Cougars. That’s the good news. The less good news is centered around Vucinich’s aggressive approach at the plate. His free swinging ways help explain some of power output (swing hard at anything around the plate and sometimes the ball goes very far), but it’s also gotten him in trouble in the past. Something about his skill set had me really curious about locking down some worthwhile comps. Best two I came up with are former Padres starting SS/2B Damian Jackson (44th rounder) and current Red Sox minor leaguer Tug Hulett (14th rounder). It wouldn’t surprise me to see Vucinich split the difference between the two, both in eventual draft landing spot and pro career accomplishments.
Arizona JR SS Bryce Ortega
Height, Weight: 5-11, 175
Birth Date: 9/22/88 (Age-21 season)
FR – .326/.409/.429 (25 BB/24 K; 13-15 SB)
SO – .324/.420/.438 (31 BB/32 K; 16-18 SB)
JR – .258/.390/.274 (11 BB/4 K; 9-9 SB)
Ortega put up very consistent numbers in his first two full seasons at Arizona, but has taken a step backwards in the power department in the early going of 2010. As a matter of fact, he’s the only one of the four players listed who has experienced a decline in his performance so far in 2010. The most commonly cited reason for Ortega’s early season struggles relate back to his transition from shortstop (a position he is more than capable of playing, for the record) to second base; not sure I buy it, but it’s a thought. Strong base running and good patience have long been the bedrocks of his offensive game, so it’s good to see those areas remain consistent despite his 2010 contact and power deficiencies. Patience at the plate, a two-year track record of pop (2010 be damned), excellent base running instincts, and a versatile glove fit the potential utility infielder mold pretty well, don’t you think?
UCLA JR SS Niko Gallego
Height, Weight: 5-11, 180
Birth Date: 12/29/88 (Age-21 season)
FR – .317/.378/.415 (2 BB/7 K; 1-2 SB)
SO – .273/.361/.326 (16 BB/34 K; 6-10 SB)
JR – .305/.411/.542 (8 BB/8 K; 5-5 SB)
Gallego didn’t do much to impress in his first two years with the Bruins, but experience in two quality wood bat summer leagues (Northwoods League and Cape Cod League) and pro baseball bloodlines (father Mike had almost 3,000 big league at bats) make him a good bet to hear his name called on draft day. The quality start in 2010 certainly doesn’t hurt his prospect stock, but, again, his pro future maxes out at utility player. He doesn’t quite have dear old dad’s glove, but may have more upside in his bat than the .239/.320/.328 career line put up by his father. Speaking of comparisons to Mike Gallego, enjoy this quote from former Arizona State head coach Pat Murphy on comparing Gallego the senior to Dustin Pedroia:
I’ve been trying to figure it out and I can’t. Mike Gallego is a good friend of mine and I used to tell him that he reminded me of Gags. That used to piss Pedroia off. He would say ‘Mike [expletive] Gallego, are you [expletive] me?’ and he would say that all the way back when he was a freshman. Can you imagine a freshman in college baseball reacting like that when you’re comparing him to a Major Leaguer…but that’s exactly the way Pedro is.
2010 MLB Draft: Big 12 Shortstops
I’m digging these quick looks at different 2010 MLB Draft position groups, so let’s keep it going with a look at the handful of Big 12 draft-eligible shortstops of note. I think this group is actually a touch better on the whole than the ACC quartet, but I’m probably splitting hairs with that assessment considering the most probable career path of the eight players listed so far would be considered under the umbrella category of “utility player of varying value.” Speaking of the ACC list from yesterday, a comp for one of the players on the list came to mind last night: Tim Smalling as the college version of Tampa’s Reid Brignac. Bit of a stretch, perhaps, but there are some similar tool-based similarities between the two. Just a thought.
Texas A&M JR SS Kenny Jackson
Height, Weight: 6-4, 195
Birth Date: 7/2/89 (Age-20 season)
JR – .421/.511/.447 (7 BB/4 K; 1-1 SB)
The former Alvin College shortstop reminds me of current Cardinals starter Brendan Ryan. Both players are smooth defenders, possess strong arms, bigger than usual shortstop frames, and enough offensive skills and defensive consistency to provide value as a starter. Jackson hasn’t put up big power numbers in 2010, but showed off enough pop prior to joining the Aggies to have some observers (myself included) buy in to his double digit home run potential as a professional. Like the vast majority of the college shortstops on this list, Jackson’s clearest path to the big leagues will be as a utility player with a strong glove. Unlike so many of the others, however, Jackson has clear starter upside at the position if he continue to tap into his above-average tools.
Kansas State JR SS Carter Jurica
Height, Weight: 5-11, 185
Birth Date: 9/23/88 (Age-21 season)
FR – .240/.329/.360 (15 BB/23 K; 9-14 SB)
SO – .353/.437/.492 (26 BB/45 K; 23-32 SB)
JR – .432/.495/.662 (11 BB/9 K; 10-13 SB)
In a weak college shortstop class, Carter Jurica should see his stock soar this spring. He has always had the right tools to succeed (plus speed, enough pop, good athlete), but has put everything together in a big way so far this season. The raw tools are there for Jurica to succeed professionally, but it’ll take a team buying in to his long-range projection if he wants to sneak up into the top ten rounds this June.
Kansas JR SS Brandon Macias
Height, Weight: 5-10, 183
Birth Date: 10/10/88 (Age-21 season)
JR – .213/.261/.262 (3 BB/10 K; 0-0 SB)
There is certainly an argument that could be made for Macias to sit atop this particular shortstop list, what with his excellent defensive tools and true plus arm strength and accuracy, but the early season struggles of the former Arizona State enrollee and South Mountain CC shortstop give me pause. Macias has received universal praise for his outstanding work ethic and love of the game, and his big first year playing for South Mountain (in a wood bat league, no less) had scouts thinking they were watching a future everyday shortstop in the making. A disappointing sophomore season chock full of struggles due in large part to a nagging hamstring injury took him off the radar to some degree, but, despite the down year, Macias showed off enough evidence that he’s a player with all five tools (in addition to the aforementioned defensive gifts, Macias has above-average speed and good gap power) present in his game. Kansas has a surprisingly rich recent history of shortstops drafted into the professional ranks, a factor that can only help Macias this June. Many talent evaluators look for programs that have coaching staffs with reputations coaching up certain positions or player types; in this way, Kansas’ strong track record developing up the middle types could be Macias’ gain this June.
Texas Tech SR SS Joey Kenworthy
Height, Weight: 5-5, 160
Birth Date: 6/6/88 (Age-22 season)
FR – .182/.262/.255 (4 BB/6 K; 1-1 SB)
SO – .313/.431/.411 (39 BB/20 K; 5-6 SB)
JR – .335/.363/.417 (12 BB/24 K; 5-7 SB)
SR – .303/.444/.461 (14 BB/8 K; 3-6 SB)
No, Kenworthy isn’t the water boy, scorekeeper, or equipment manager, thanks so much for asking. Opposing fans do a double take when the 5-5, 160 pound Kenworthy steps up to the plate for the first time, but his solid defense and not completely worthless bat (how’s that for a ringing endorsement?) typically give him the last laugh. I wonder if Kenworthy’s draft stock would have been higher if he was a senior coming out of school at the height of post-World Series Angels victory induced David Eckstein craze of a few years ago. As it stands, his draft prospects are touch and go, but a continuation of his improved senior year numbers might be enough to sneak him into the last few rounds this year.
The Baseball Draft Report 