The Baseball Draft Report

This is a little bit of a rough group even though I do like the names at the top quite a bit. I have to keep my mouth shut more than usual about John Aiello because he’s one of the players I saw up close multiple times this past spring in an effort to perform a service for a team/company in return for a small financial outlay. I don’t foresee lucking into the same arrangement next year – said team/company now has a more permanent employee in the area, which I’m pleased about since it saved me from making a tough life path decision – so I should be able to write freely about Aiello’s game multiple times next spring. Everything you’ve heard/read elsewhere about him is true: he’s got a big league body with the confidence that comes with it (or swagger, if you’re into that kind of thing), above-average power and arm strength, and enough athleticism to project as a darn fine third baseman professionally with the tiny chance he stays up the middle for a bit. Exciting overall profile.

I haven’t seen anybody else on the list as often as I have Aiello, but I think I have a decent feel for the rest of the class based on the few looks I’ve had, the short snippets I’ve heard from smarter pals, and the free public info out there on each guy. Ryan Mountcastle can really swing the bat. Ke’Bryan Hayes looks like he’d be comfortable dropped into a professional batter’s box tomorrow (no surprise with his bloodlines). J’Mar Smith is shaping up a little bit like this year’s Ti’Quan Forbes for me; it’s very early yet, but I like everything I know about Smith to date and think he could be a very fast riser.

Willie Burger sounds delicious right about now (as always, I skipped lunch); more importantly, he has interesting power and lives close enough by that I should be able to see him a few times this year. My appreciation for Carson Kelly as a prospect back in the day trickles down to Parker Kelly, so he’s a high follow for me. I remember very little about Bryce Denton, which doesn’t mean anything good, bad, or whatever. Bat intrigues me, but I’m curious about the glove. Only notes I have on him from East Coast Pro don’t reveal a whole lot about his defense, so that’ll be something I’ll try to pay extra attention to now.

3B/SS John Aiello (Germantown Academy, Pennsylvania)

3B Ryan Mountcastle (Hagerty HS, Florida)

3B/RHP Ke’Bryan Hayes (Concordia Lutheran HS, Texas)

3B/RHP J’Mar Smith (Meridian HS, Mississippi)

3B/C Willie Burger (Lancaster Catholic HS, Pennsylvania)

3B/RHP Parker Kelly (Westview HS, Oregon)

3B/OF Bryce Denton (Ravenwood HS, Tennessee)

3B Ben Ellis (Briarcrest Christian HS, Tennessee)

3B Brenton Burgess (Chamblee Charter HS, Georgia)

3B/RHP Andrew Noviello (Bridgewater-Raynham HS, Massachusetts)

3B David Chabut (Loganville HS, Georgia)

3B Alec Bohm (Roncalli Catholic HS, Nebraska)

3B LJ Talley (Charlton County HS, Georgia)

3B/SS Austin Pharr (Cherokee HS, Georgia)

3B Jake Franklin (Jefferson HS, Georgia)

3B Zack Quintal (Marshwood HS, Maine)

3B/SS Lucas Larson (Jefferson HS, Iowa)

3B Jared Mang (Los Alamos HS, New Mexico)

3B/1B Greyson Jenista (De Soto HS, Kansas)

3B Trey Cabbage (Grainger HS, Tennessee)

3B Brendon Davis (Lakewood HS, California)

3B Ryan Mantle (Linn HS, Missouri)

3B/RHP Blake Burton (Mater Dei HS, California)

3B Jack Mattson (Chanhassen HS, Minnesota)

3B/RHP Tyler Wyatt (Liberty HS, Arizona)

3B/RHP Grant Sloan (Zionsville HS, Indiana)

3B Matt Vierling (Christian Brothers HS, Missouri)

3B Graham Mitchell (Eastside HS, South Carolina)

3B Tyler Nevin (Poway HS, California)

3B/1B AJ Curtis (Amador Valley HS, California)

This list isn’t all that I wanted it to be, but it’s still a fairly strong representation of the players that I’ve either seen up close or feel like I have enough information on to make an educated guess about. Information becomes more scarce the further down the list you go, so keep it that in mind if you’re the type to think the guy listed at 9 is WAY better than the player listed at 5. In fact, it might just be best to focus on the rankings closer to the top of the list while using the back end as just a quick shorthand for the most notable tools each player possesses. Lastly, this list is just a quick version of what I have. If you want to know more about anybody — or want to add something — please don’t hesitate to ask/contribute any way you see fit.

1. 3B/RHP Jacob Gatewood (Redwood HS, California): star upside; plus bat speed; big raw power, could be plus-plus; more present power at a younger age than most big-time prospects; seen as a potential CF over SS by many, could also fit very well at 3B; above-average to plus arm; great athlete; not much foot speed; popular yet unreasonable Tulo comp; swing needs to be reworked, but makeup suggests willingness to work at it; FAVORITE; mid-80s FB; good 74 CB; 6-5, 200 pounds
2. 3B/2B Michael Chavis (Sprayberry HS, Georgia): good approach; above-average to plus defender; can’t throw it fast enough for him; very real right-handed power, at least above-average and plus for me; average speed; average or better arm; good athlete; bat speed is nuts; could be catcher convert; PG comp: Javier Baez; not perfect, but reminds me of Cavan Biggio last year; Callis comp: Jedd Gyorko; I can see maybe RHH Robin Ventura; have heard Blake DeWitt as warning; 5-10, 200 pounds
3. 3B Sean Bouchard (Cathedral Catholic HS, California): quick bat; good to plus speed; above-average power upside; good athlete; good defensive tools; plus arm; average hit tool; 6-3, 200 pounds
4. 3B/2B Charlie Cody (Great Bridge HS, Virginia): plus hit tool; strong arm; good athlete; really good defensive tools; quick bat; good speed; FAVORITE; PG comp: David Wright
5. 3B/RHP Shane Benes (Westminster Christian HS, Missouri): average or better power upside; good athlete; above-average arm; average or better hit tool; 87-91 FB; 76 CB; 79 CU; strong; ACL injury in 2014; 6-3, 200 pounds
6. 3B/SS Joe Dunand (Gulliver HS, Florida): power upside; good speed; strong arm; good defensive tools; 6-3, 210 pounds
7. 3B Kevin Padlo (Murrieta Valley HS, California): good arm; good athlete; good hit tool; 6-1, 190 pounds
8. 3B Montrell Marshall (South Gwinnett HS, Georgia): great athlete; 6-5, 200 pounds
9. 3B/SS Will Toffey (Salisbury Prep, Massachusetts): strong; good hit tool; below-average speed; good athlete; great base runner; average or better raw power; above-average arm; smart hitter
10. 3B Grayson Byrd (King’s Ridge HS, Georgia): mature approach; strong arm; 6-3, 180 pounds
11. 3B/OF Travis Jones (Atascocita HS, Texas): quick bat; above-average to plus speed; power upside; good athlete; 6-4, 200 pounds
12. 3B Dylan Busby (Sarasota HS, Florida): strong; good athlete; good range; good athlete; 6-4, 180 pounds
13. 3B Max Ponzurick (Greensburg Central HS, Pennsylvania): interesting hit tool; strong arm; good defensive tools; 6-3, 220 pounds
14. 3B/SS Taylor Lane (IMG Academy, Florida): strong arm; average at best speed; good athlete; above-average raw power; 6-1, 200 pounds
15. 3B/RHP Jordan Pearce (El Camino HS, California): above-average power; 86-90 FB; mid-70s SL; good CB
16. 3B/2B Joe Gillette (Scotts Valley HS, California): plus potential with glove; great athlete; good speed; PG Brett Morel comp; 6-3, 190 pounds
17. 3B/RHP David Hensley (Patrick Henry HS, California): good glove; power upside; can get it against high velocity; 85-88 FB; 77-80 SL/CB; 6-5, 175 pounds
18. 3B Dalon Farkas (Milton HS, Georgia): strong arm; power upside
19. 3B Jackson Soto (West Albany HS, Oregon): strong; good athlete; 6-1, 200 pounds
20. 3B Jayden Eggimann (Desert Ridge HS, Arizona): average power
21. 3B/RHP Jared Walker (McEachern HS, Georgia): average speed; strong arm; 87-91 FB
22. 3B/SS Michael Gretler (Bonney Lake HS, Washington): interesting upside with glove; 6-2, 180 pounds
23. 3B/SS Dominic DiSabatino (St. Mark’s HS, Delaware): below-average speed; above-average arm; 6-5, 180 pounds

At one point, you could have made a case – a tenuous one, to be sure – that the shortstop position at the high school level was similar to the catcher spot. The catchers are currently Chris Betts and a lot of question marks. Shortstop has as clear a top prospect in Brendan Rodgers, but he’s not the only early round candidate worth knowing about. Some of the players listed won’t remain at shortstop, but many will. All in all, this is one of the deeper high school shortstop groups that I can remember this early in the process. Players always come out of nowhere and surprise just as attrition will knock some of the existing top players down a peg or three. I’m just saying that as of September 2014, this is a good group with a clear star at the top and a fun amount of depth trailing behind him.

It’s only logical to compare the aforementioned Brendan Rodgers to Florida’s top shortstop and eventual fifth overall pick, Nick Gordon. Perfect Game has also throw out a Troy Tulowitzki comp (not knocking it, though I don’t see it, but it seems like there’s one of these every year these days) and a JJ Hardy comp (more on target, I think). I’d actually compare his skill set and potential professional future with a different Florida amateur from back in the day: Florida State’s Stephen Drew (except righthanded this time). Rodgers is unquestionably ahead of Drew at similar stages of development – check out the HS scouting report of Drew from Baseball America when you can; it’s rough – and doesn’t come with any of the makeup questions that have dogged Drew (fairly or not) throughout his career. Rodgers, in fact, garners some of the highest praise of any amateur athlete I can remember when it comes to makeup; read this interview on Baseball America for some insight of how he views the game and keep it mind scouts have said this is just tip of the iceberg when it comes to his baseball IQ and commitment to maximizing his natural talent. The words “above-average” litter any report on his future tools: raw power, speed, arm (flashes plus), hit tool, and range/hands/instincts/footwork all hit the mark. The cherry on top is his explosive bat speed, which ranks at or near the top of this year’s group of high school hitters.

My only current quibble with Rodgers’ prospect standing is something he can’t control: his age. He’s not so old for his class that it’s going to move him down boards in any meaningful way, but it is worth keeping in mind when assessing his on-field performances over the past summer and going forward this spring. Even a few month developmental start can make a difference at that age. When you hear reports on his tools, forget about the age thing. If you hear from somebody raving about how he’s overmatching his competition, take it with a little grain of salt. Again, this is really is not anything to obsess about but rather something to store away in the back of your mind when comparing him against the rest of the very tippy top of the draft class. He’s still great, slightly overaged or not.

Cadyn Greiner is a massive personal favorite who ably combines a steady glove, strong arm, above-average speed, and a bat with a chance for an above-average or better hit tool with average power. He’s not quite Brendan Rodgers, but he may be 90% of him. I wish I was more confident that Greiner would stick at shortstop, but, if he has to move off, it is comforting to know he’s gifted enough to handle second base (with the chance he grows into enough power to make third base an option). Nick Shumpert’s glove is worth the price of admission, and the bat/speed could be enough to make him a future regular. He’ll be an interesting player to watch as he enters pro ball because he’s the type who projects as potential plus at second (or better…I really, really like his glove there) or around average at shortstop. What player brings more value? That’s a rhetorical question, as I’m a) not smart enough to actually figure that stuff out, and b) unsure there’s a good, publicly available way to figure that out, what with defensive metrics free for the masses still a relatively new and as yet imperfect measure for adjusting for such things. I hope a smart team with strong propriety defensive data collection system drafts Shumpert to help add a point to one side of the debate.

I’m quite sure somebody somewhere has beaten me to this, but I can’t find it anywhere after a solid fifteen seconds of Googling. Nick Madrigal has a lot of Jose Altuve in his game, and not just because he’s a fellow vertically challenged middle infield prospect. I mean, sure, that has a lot to do with the comp, but it also has to do with Madrigal’s excellent glove, advanced bat control, instincts beyond his years, underrated athleticism, and an approach to hitting tailor-made for pro ball. This is obviously a ceiling comp, as Altuve has matured into a very fine player, but if you can’t project high school players to big league all-stars nine months before the draft, then when can you?

Beyond those top four names, there’s still a ton of players who are good at baseball. That’s important because this is a site that makes guesses about which players will wind up being the best at baseball. In five to ten years we’ll have a better idea which of these players will make me look smart or stupid. I’ve considered using that as a new tagline for the site, if you can believe it. Logan Tolbert has the size, tools, and instincts teams fall in love with during the process. Lucius Fox is a great athlete with easy plus speed. Xavier LeGrant reminds me a little bit of a southern Nick Shumpert. Brandon Perez can really pick it at short and is a really smart hitter. The list goes on and on.

If you’re the type to wonder how a combined high school middle infield prospect list might currently look, then you’re in luck. I think I’d go Rodgers – Alonzo Jones – Greiner – Kyler Murray – Cornelius Randolph – Shumpert – Madrigal. Lots of close calls in there, so take it as tentative on tentative on tentative. Tentative is what I do best, after all.

SS Brendan Rodgers (Lake Mary HS, Florida)

SS/2B Cadyn Greiner (Bishop Gorman HS, Nevada)

SS/2B Nick Shumpert (Highlands Ranch HS, Colorado)

SS Nick Madrigal (Elk Grove HS, California)

SS/3B Logan Tolbert (IMG Academy, Florida)

SS/2B Lucius Fox (American Heritage HS, Florida)

SS/2B Xavier LeGrant (Phillip O Berry Academy of Tech, North Carolina)

SS/2B Daino Deas (Parkview HS, Georgia)

SS/OF/RHP Daniel Neal (South Laurel HS, Kentucky)

SS Brandon Perez (Mater Dei HS, California)

SS/2B Travis Blankenhorn (Pottsville Area HS, Pennsylvania)

SS/RHP O’Neal Lochridge (St. Thomas More HS, Louisiana)

SS Jalen Miller (Riverwood HS, Georgia)

SS Brody Cook (Riverdale Baptist HS, Maryland)

SS/RHP Kyle Datres (Loyalsock HS, Pennsylvania)

SS/2B Luke Wakamatsu (Keller HS, Texas)

SS Chris Reid (St. Michael the Archangel HS, Louisiana)

SS AJ Graffanino (Northwest Christian HS, Arizona)

SS/2B Tristan Metten (Prestonwood Christian Academy, Texas)

SS Ramon Alejo (Boone HS, Florida)

SS Carter Hall (Wesleyan HS, Georgia)

SS/3B Jeremiah Burks (Will C. Wood HS, California)

SS Brandon Janofsky (Jackson Memorial HS, New Jersey)

SS Jonathan Meola (Toms River East HS, New Jersey)

SS Nate Fisbeck (The Woodlands HS, Texas)

SS Kyle Isbel (Etiwanda HS, California)

SS Jake Mueller (Richland Northeast HS, South Carolina)

SS Grant Cox (Greenville HS, South Carolina)

SS Jay Sanford (Pope John XXIII HS, New Jersey)

SS David Posas (Valdosta HS, Georgia)

SS Dylan Doherty (Foothill HS, California)

SS/RHP Dylan Poncho (Kinder HS, Louisiana)

SS Ty Denzer (Chanhassen HS, Minnesota)

SS Deacon Liput (Oviedo HS, Florida)

This list isn’t all that I wanted it to be, but it’s still a fairly strong representation of the players that I’ve either seen up close or feel like I have enough information on to make an educated guess about. Information becomes more scarce the further down the list you go, so keep it that in mind if you’re the type to think the guy listed at 13 is WAY better than the player listed at 7. In fact, it might just be best to focus on the rankings closer to the top of the list while using the back end as just a quick shorthand for the most notable tools each player possesses. Lastly, this list is just a quick version of what I have. If you want to know more about anybody — or want to add something — please don’t hesitate to ask/contribute any way you see fit.

1. SS/RHP Nick Gordon (Olympia HS, Florida): great athlete; excellent defensive tools, will be average at least professionally; good hit tool, easily above-average; interesting power upside, average to above-average for me (consider him underrated here); average to above-average speed (some have plus); above-average arm, plus at times; hits it with more authority than his brother at same stage; comparison to JP Crawford makes some sense, but has gotten physically stronger and results have been encouraging; easy 88-92 FB, 93-94 peak; above-average 73-79 CB flashes plus; upper-70s CU; 6-2, 170 pounds
2. SS Ti’Quan Forbes (Columbia HS, Mississippi): above-average arm; good range at SS; excellent athlete; impressive raw power, easy average or better raw; quick bat; love his defensive upside at SS, CF is strong fallback; plus to plus-plus speed; needs to get stronger; only thing “holding him back” is misguided view that all MS preps fail; huge FAVORITE; 6-4, 175 pounds
3. SS/3B Josh Morgan (Orange Lutheran HS, California): plus defensive ability at 3B; average or better arm; love his approach; impressive game power, average presently; average speed; great approach; no problems squaring velocity; BP comp: Addison Russell defensively; FAVORITE; 6-0, 180 pounds
4. SS/3B Cole Tucker (Mountain Pointe HS, Arizona): above-average arm; good athlete; average or better speed; above-average raw power; knows how to play; 6-3, 180 pounds
5. SS/2B Ryan Lillard (Urbandale HS, Iowa): strong arm; good speed; quick bat; good athlete; average power; 6-1, 185 pounds
6. SS Brody Westmoreland (ThunderRidge HS, Colorado): good athlete; good defensive tools; strong arm
7. SS Blake Wiggins (Pulaski Academy, Arkansas): power upside; strong; has also been tried at C; 6-1, 190 pounds
8. SS Milton Ramos (American Heritage HS, Florida): good speed, plus for some; good enough arm; very good defensive tools, plus to plus-plus; impressive footwork; has gotten stronger over calendar year; not sure if he’ll hit; PG comp: Oscar Mercado; 6-0, 160 pounds
9. SS/OF DJ Burt (Furquay-Varina HS, North Carolina): good speed; strong enough arm; good athlete; quick bat; gap power; 5-9, 160 pounds
10. SS/2B Dalton Guthrie (Venice HS, Florida): smart player; good defender; solid all-around; typical Kevin O’Sullivan middle infielder in a good way
11. SS Quin Walbergh (Edmond Santa Fe HS, Oklahoma): good speed; good defensive tools; interesting bat
12. SS Kyle McPherson (Western Branch HS, Virginia): plus defensive tools
13. SS Alexis Pantojas (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico): plus defensive upside; good arm; above-average speed; bat will be a question; 6-0, 165 pounds
14. SS Justin Fowler (Aliso Niguel HS, California): good hit tool; steady glove
15. SS/RHP Tristan Gray (Elkins HS, Texas): strong hit tool; 88-89 FB
16. SS Nick Valaika (Hart HS, California): good glove; strong arm; 6-0, 175 pounds
17. SS Henry Davis (Mayo HS, South Carolina): really good defensive tools; strong arm; good athlete; 6-3, 160 pounds
18. SS Christian Hicks (The Bolles HS, Florida): plus defensive tools; plus range; strong arm; 6-4, 180 pounds
19. SS Dale Burdick (Summit HS, Tennessee): smart hitter; good approach
20. SS/RHP Grant Fennell (Scripps Ranch HS, California): good athlete; good defensive tools; plus arm; 85-89 FB; 65-66 SL
21. SS/3B Jonathan Ducoff (Kingwood Park HS, Texas): strong; good athlete; strong arm; 6-1, 190 pounds
22. SS Josh Garbrecht (Edmond North HS, Oklahoma): good athlete; good speed; accurate arm
23. SS Bryce Evans (Savannah Christian HS, Georgia): plus speed
24. SS Clayton Custer (Blue Valley Northwest HS, Kansas): good athlete; 6-0, 170 pounds
25. SS Nick Roark (Broken Arrow HS, Oklahoma): good defensive tools
26. SS Ryan Gridley (Milton HS, Georgia): steady glove; 5-9, 170 pounds

I love the three names at the top. Unreasonably so, maybe, but they make up as dynamic a trio of future second basemen from the high school ranks in as long as I can remember. Guys with tools like this simply don’t see themselves projected as future second basemen all that often. Adding talent like this at second base is a good thing for the game (obvious statements are obvious, but stay with me), and perhaps an acknowledgment that a) a good second basemen is hard to find, b) sending out lesser players to second base isn’t a sound long-term development strategy, and c) offensively, the two positions up the middle have a freakishly similar threshold of acceptance (2B: .251/.309/.364 [.299 wOBA, 89 wRC+]; SS: .250/.307/.363 [.298 wOBA, 87 wRC+]). We’ve been conditioned to think of second basemen as nothing more than “failed shortstops,” but the perception of how difficult it is to play the position well appears to be changing. I realize there simply aren’t enough athletes to go around to field thirty middle infielders with two “shortstops” playing up the middle, but that shouldn’t (and it doesn’t, obviously) stop teams from trying. Let’s embrace second basemen in the same way we have long showered praise on shortstops; the position is important and difficult to play well and more than just guys who couldn’t hack it at short.

Of course, we are still cheating in a way. A good HS second base prospect is still very hard to find. As much as I look at the top names on this list as primary second basemen, I’d still be surprised if any of the above players wind up actually playing much of the position this upcoming spring for their high school teams. That’s just the nature of high school ball. Alonzo Jones is passable at shortstop (maybe better) and will forever be an intriguing option in center field thanks to his plus to plus-plus speed. Kyler Murray (see below) is almost as fast and no less athletic. Cornelius Randolph could play a variety of positions, and I wouldn’t argue with anybody who projected him as a third basemen or even a corner outfielder going forward. I think he fits best at second, but the body type more clearly fits the traditional third base mold. Either way, he’s not a great bet to get a ton of reps this spring at the keystone unless things change between now and then.

I know Murray is listed as a shortstop in many places on the internet, but those I’ve asked about him have been emphatic that he’ll wind up at second base in the long run. I find this interesting because athleticism (or lack thereof) is often cited as one of the main reasons a middle infielder will make the shift to his left to second base; if you know anything about Murray, you know damn well that his plus athleticism is not in question. All of this could be moot if he winds up playing college football, but I’ve learned that it doesn’t make sense to close the book on a prospect just because the football threat exists. On talent, he’s a no-brainer top two talent at second in this class. If you expand the rankings a bit, it’s clear he’s very much in the mix as a top five HS middle infield prospect. Always bet on athleticism.

Second, short, or center, Jones can really play. There might not have been a player I enjoyed watching more this summer than him. I’m not one to typically throw around scouting buzz words, but it was hard to describe the way he plays the game as anything but effortless ease. There’s not a future tool here that you’d rate average or worse, and his speed, athleticism, physical strength, bat speed, and swing all rank at or near the top of the class. I know some still ultimately question how much he’ll hit, so consider that one of the few remaining questions about his game as we head into the 2015 draft season. A big spring will lock him into the first round. I think the natural comparison we’ll see this spring – maybe not in the form of a comp, but more in a competition to see who goes first in this year’s draft – will be between Jones and Ian Happ of Cincinnati.

Randolph can’t quite compare as an athlete, runner, and defender with the two players ranked above him, but his hit tool could put him on the top of the list by next June. I really enjoy the Terry Pendleton comp that Perfect Game put out there. I’ve heard two fairly interesting ones as well: a lefthanded Bill Madlock (well before my time, but based on what I now know I can buy it) and Gregg Jefferies. I think Jefferies is a particularly interesting comp for a variety of reasons, though I wonder if he’s one of those rare players (well, not so much as a player since things didn’t quite go as planned, but as a prospect) that we shouldn’t comp anybody to. Probably not, but I have heard from multiple (two!) industry types that Jefferies was the most impressive young player they had ever scouted to that point.

We’ll circle all the way back to the original thought about this being a particularly strong year of “true” (truer than in year’s past, at least) high school second base prospects. As much as I think this year has the potential to be an exception to draft history, it should be noted that the track record for prep second basemen isn’t much to get worked up about. Only 11 HS second basemen were drafted last season. Of that 11, only seven signed. As the 35^th overall selection in the draft Forrest Wall was the freak of the class (in a good way); after him, signed second basemen went in rounds 7, 7, 10, 12, 14, and 15. Positional designations do play a part in the data appearing the way it does – despite being placed on this list today, there is no guarantee they’ll still be here come June, let alone called a 2B by their drafting team on the big day – but it’s still worth remembering that players expected to settle in at second base at an early age aren’t typically sought after as amateur prospects. It’s not crazy to expect this year’s class to buck the trend.

2B/OF Alonzo Jones (Columbus HS, Georgia)

2B/SS Kyler Murray (Allen HS, Texas)

2B/3B/OF Cornelius Randolph (Griffin HS, Georgia)

2B/OF Jagger Rusconi (West Ranch HS, California)

2B Pikai Winchester (Iolani HS, Hawaii)

2B/SS Luke Alexander (Belmond HS, Mississippi)

2B Kody Clemens (Memorial HS, Texas)

2B Cobie Vance (Pine Forest HS, North Carolina)

2B Ethan Paul (Newport HS, Washington)

This list isn’t all that I wanted it to be, but it’s still a fairly strong representation of the players that I’ve either seen up close or feel like I have enough information on to make an educated guess about. Information becomes more scarce the further down the list you go, so keep it that in mind if you’re the type to think the guy listed at 12 is WAY better than the player listed at 8. In fact, it might just be best to focus on the rankings closer to the top of the list while using the back end as just a quick shorthand for the most notable tools each player possesses. Lastly, this list is just a quick version of what I have. If you want to know more about anybody — or want to add something — please don’t hesitate to ask/contribute any way you see fit.

1. 2B/OF Forrest Wall (Orangewood Christian HS, Florida): perfect swing; bat speed in spades; iffy arm (below-average), but rebuilding strength after injuries; easy plus speed; great approach; above-average hit tool, plus upside; sneaky pop, above-average upside if generous (average for most); average glove at least; instincts are big league quality; BP comp: Dustin Ackley/Todd Walker; plain fun to watch him hit; have heard him likened to Tim Anderson in HS; my own comp: Mookie Betts; FAVORITE; 6-0, 180 pounds
2. 2B/SS Greg Deichmann (Brothers Martin HS, Louisiana): above-average to plus raw power; plus speed; steady defender; accurate arm; quick release; consistent hard contact; good athlete; PG comp: Chase Utley; shades of stronger Nick Noonan for me; only red flag: older for class; 6-1, 180 pounds
3. 2B/SS Max George (Regis Jesuit HS, Colorado): quick bat; average or better speed; steady glove, flashes better; average arm; great approach; really impressive “now” hitter; FAVORITE
4. 2B/SS Isan Diaz (Springfield Central HS, Massachusetts): pretty swing; quick bat; good defender; strong arm; FAVORITE; MLB.com comp: Robinson Cano; 5-10, 175 pounds
5. 2B/SS Liam Sabino (Blair Academy, New Jersey): great athlete; above-average arm; strong hit tool; intriguing defensive tools; average speed; 6-1, 185 pounds
6. 2B/SS Trace Loehr (Putnam HS, Oregon): good athlete; average arm; gap power; good speed; can really hit; good defender; old for class; 5-10, 175 pounds
7. 2B/SS Jack Gerstenmaier (Freeman HS, Virginia): good speed; good glove; strong hit tool; good approach; FAVORITE
8. 2B/SS Tate Blackman (Lake Brantley HS, Florida): sneaky pop, chance for average in-game; solid across board; pro approach; smart hitter; average speed; average glove; average arm; very old for class; like his swing a lot; PG comp Christian Arroyo; 6-0, 190 pounds
9. 2B/OF Luke Dykstra (Westlake HS, California): good hitter, at least average upside; strong arm; versatile defender; plays above tools; always goes max effort; average speed; impressed by defensive tools; 6-0, 200 pounds
10. 2B/OF Bryson Brigman (Valley Christian HS, California): good defensive tools; good raw power; above-average to plus speed; like his defense at 3B a lot; 5-11, 180 pounds
11. 2B Shane Mardirosian (King HS, California): above-average speed; average at best arm; strong; strong hit tool; all his tools play up; big fan of his glove; average power upside; FAVORITE; 5-9
12. 2B/RHP Justin Twine (Falls City HS, Texas): good speed, others like it way more (plus-plus); great athlete; good defensive tools; good arm; can also play OF, 3B, and SS
13. 2B/SS Keith Grieshaber (Marquette HS, Missouri): good athlete; good speed; good arm; good bat speed; power upside; 6-2, 185 pounds
14. 2B/SS Chandler Avant (Pike Liberal Arts HS, Alabama): strong arm; smooth defender; above-average hit tool; plus speed; limited power upside; 5-9, 165 pounds

The unspoken message of last week’s look at the 2015 HS catching group was how uninspiring the collection of talent looks right now as a whole. As of today, it’s Chris Betts and a lot of question marks. I don’t doubt there will be plenty of players that break from the pack and create a far more interesting crop than it currently appear, but, for now, I’d put the group as whole well behind last year’s. Not to pick on this year’s top guy – seriously, I like Betts a lot and think he could be a great get for any team starting in the sandwich round – but I don’t yet see any catchers I’d feel comfortable popping in the first round. To go back to the direct comparison, I would not put Betts above any of the HS catchers at the top of last year’s list. He’s behind Alex Jackson, Jakson Reetz, Chase Vallot, and Evan Skoug. I think he’d probably fall fifth just ahead of Simeon Lucas, a player with similar strengths and weaknesses but less of the good stuff (you know, hitting) Betts has.

The counterpoint to all this is easy, of course. You could muster a very strong argument for Betts as high as three, though I don’t think you can put him above Jackson or Reetz with a straight face. Then again, if you wanted to take the outfielder Jackson out of the mix, then that would put him as potentially as high as two. So, maybe I’m being too pessimistic about the talent at the top of this year’s catcher group. Or too optimistic about last year’s. Or maybe comparing one year’s draft to the one before it doesn’t really provide any kind of worthwhile analysis since all drafts pretty much exist in their own universe. That’s probably it.

So who still wants to compare these first basemen to last year’s! This year’s first base class doesn’t have the slam dunk first round talent that last year’s did (Braxton Davidson), but there’s some serious power at the top. That has to be a welcome sight for a league currently entering what could be a prolonged power outage. Josh Naylor, Brandt Stallings, Devin Davis, Joe Davis, and Michael Hickman all have above-average or better raw power. Tyrone Perry and Chad Spanberger (among others) are no slouches in this area either. Another striking trend among these top first base prospects is size. Simply put, these young men are big. If you were the type to total and average out the combined height and weight of the fifteen players listed, you’d see that the average measurement comes out to a little taller than 6’2” and a little heftier than 215 pounds. Not small. Stallings, Davis, James Monaghan, and Seamus Curran stand out as being particularly impressive physical specimens.

If 60 (plus) power is a prerequisite for a regular big league first basemen, then we’re talking around 20+ (23-27 using Kiley McDaniel’s Objective Tool Grades, which is cool and well worth bookmarking). That’s about half of the league’s first basemen with enough close enough that the ratio could bump up to around two-thirds by the end of the season.

Average power (15-18 HRs) sets a bar that 20 of the 25 first basemen with enough PA to qualify have reached this year. The five holdouts: James Loney, Billy Butler, Allen Craig, Eric Hosmer, and Joe Mauer. Eyeballing the leaderboards indicates that you could use a .400+ SLG as a proxy if you’d rather stay away from counting stats. Every player with 14+ HR on the list has at least a SLG of .409 save Chris Davis and Ryan Howard. I like the simplicity of the above, but, let’s be real: using HR and SLG is no way to evaluate hitters in 2014, so we’ll go one step deeper.

There are 18 qualified first basemen who are at least average or better in terms of Off, which I like using because it is park adjusted and it includes base running. The former is obviously important and the latter, while maybe not particularly relevant to this exact discussion, is a decent proxy for speed, baseball IQ, and body type. Using this metric, four guys who qualified on our “power list” (the HR one) don’t make the cut: Garrett Jones, Mark Teixeira, Davis, and Howard. Two less powerful hitters do make it: Joe Mauer and James Loney (barely). Both of those hitters had wOBA’s around .320, so we can use that as a tentative offensive baseline for a league average first basemen. This makes me happier than using Off because it only breaks down what the player did with the bat in his hands, but bums me out because it doesn’t take park effects into consideration. From a scouting perspective it is incredibly weird and unrealistic to size up a player and think to yourself, “Yeah, that guy looks good for a consistent run of .320 or better wOBA’s.” Twenty or so homers, on the other hand, is a far simpler, far more engrained idea to visualize. That’s why it is sometimes helpful to work through the better metrics until you get to the basics. The fact that of the 19 qualified first basemen with wOBA’s over .320 have averaged 20.84 HR to date (9/10/14) ties it all together nicely. Average or better power in a first basemen is pretty much close to a must. Naylor, D. Davis, J. Davis, and Hickman are all there. Stallings, Perry, Spanberger, and any number of additional as yet unheralded (or heralded by others that I’m whiffing on) players should all be there as well. That’s a good start.

Now for a random paragraph that didn’t really fit anywhere else so I’m tacking it on here at the end. One of the nicest things about this group is that the player currently inhabiting the top spot just so happens to be a fascinating prospect to follow. I’m too bland a writer to be much of a narrative guy, but I find it hard to believe that Josh Naylor won’t become a Twitter darling come June. Canadian sluggers who have drawn comparisons to Dan Vogelbach (Perfect Game) and Prince Fielder (everybody) because of a wildly impressive natural gift for hitting, easy plus raw power, and an uncommon body type (not small) tend to get the imagination going. It is very possible – by the odds, almost a certainty – that another player will overtake Naylor at the top of this list by draft season’s end, but, as a player that breaks many of the molds we’ve grown accustomed to as baseball fans, Naylor will remain a favorite.

1B Josh Naylor (St. Joan of Arc SS, Ontario)

1B/OF Brandt Stallings (Kings Ridge Christian HS, Georgia)

1B Devin Davis (Valencia HS, California)

1B/C Joe Davis (Bowie HS, Texas)

1B/C Michael Hickman (Seven Lakes HS, Texas)

1B Tyrone Perry (Avon Park HS, Florida)

1B Chad Spanberger (Granite City HS, Illinois)

1B James Monaghan (La Plata HS, Maryland)

1B Chris Gesell (St. Augustine, California)

1B Christian Steele (Lebanon HS, Ohio)

1B/3B AJ Curtis (Amador Valley HS, California)

1B Jason Heinrich (River Ridge HS, Florida)

1B Seamus Curran (Agawam HS, Massachusetts)

1B Jaxxon Fagg (Williams Field HS, Arizona)

This list isn’t all that I wanted it to be, but it’s still a fairly strong representation of the players that I’ve either seen up close or feel like I have enough information on to make an educated guess about. Information becomes more scarce the further down the list you go, so keep it that in mind if you’re the type to think the guy listed at 15 is WAY better than the player listed at 10. In fact, it might just be best to focus on the rankings closer to the top of the list while using the back end as just a quick shorthand for the most notable tools each player possesses. Lastly, this list is just a quick version of what I have. If you want to know more about anybody — or want to add something — please don’t hesitate to ask/contribute any way you see fit.

1. 1B/OF Braxton Davidson (Roberson HS, North Carolina): good athlete; average at best speed; average arm, maybe more; potentially special bat; good glove; serious raw power, easy plus; love his approach, every at bat matters; swing tweaks would help him take off; would pay to watch him hit; no problems turning around velocity; my own Freddie Freeman comp; PG comp: Travis Snider; FAVORITE; 6-2, 205 pounds
2. 1B Jeremy Vasquez (Martin County HS, Florida): average power upside; well above-average hit tool; gorgeous swing; great vision at the plate; plus bat speed; good glove; McDaniel comp: Nick Longhi; FAVORITE
3. 1B/3B Bobby Bradley (Harrison Central HS, Mississippi): above-average to plus power upside; average to above-average hit tool; great approach; makes some loud contact; average to above-average arm; steady glove; being tried at C, but still a 1B for me and many; slow; can see the popular Pedro Alvarez comp; FAVORITE; 6-2, 225 pounds
4. 1B Justin Bellinger (St. Sebastian’s School, Massachusetts): others don’t love it, but I see a pretty lefthanded swing; big raw power; patient approach; 6-6
5. 1B/LHP Pavin Smith (Palm Beach Gardens HS, Florida): quick bat; strong; interesting power upside (plus raw?), but a ways to get there; hit tool stands out, chance to be above-average; good athlete; strong arm; slow; FAVORITE; 87-90 FB; 6-2, 200 pounds
6. 1B Josh Ockimey (Neumann-Goretti HS, Pennsylvania): good athlete; power upside; interesting hit tool; slow; 6-4, 220 pounds
7. 1B/LHP Brian Gonzalez (Archbishop McCarthy HS, Florida): average or better raw power; average or better hit tool; 87-91 FB; CB flashes above-average; CU; 6-3, 230 pounds
8. 1B/3B JJ Matijevic (Norwin HS, Pennsylvania): interesting power, above-average raw; average hit tool; average at best arm; below-average speed; 6-2, 200 pounds
9. 1B Mitchell Bigras (St. Clair SS, Ontario): good approach; power upside; 6-5, 185 pounds
10. 1B Cole Young (Norco HS, California): interesting power, above-average to plus; strong; iffy glove; 6-2, 200 pounds
11. 1B/OF Cole Krzmarzick (Bishop Gorman HS, Nevada): strong hit tool
12. 1B Dash Winningham (Trinity Catholic HS, Florida): interesting power
13. 1B/LHP Hunter Williams (Cosby HS, Virginia): big power; 88-90 FB; 6-3, 215 pounds
14. 1B Luke Ramirez (Eastlake HS, California): power upside; good glove
15. 1B Eric Ramirez (Rio Mesa HS, California): good defender; really good hit tool; 5-10, 210 pounds
16. 1B/RHP Joe Wainhouse (Kentridge HS, Washington): power upside; good defender; 87 FB; 6-6, 250 pounds

Chris Betts has a firm grasp on the title of top prep catcher in this year’s class. The tools are there for him to start at the highest level with good enough defensive ability and average or better raw power. His defense actually remains a hotly discussed topic among industry-types, but I’ve always been impressed at his maturity, arm, and capacity for growth, so I’m confident he’ll wind up an average or better professional catcher in time. Early views on guys like Wyatt Cross, Elih Marrero, Domenic DeRenzo, and Nick Dalesandro have offered promise. Most importantly, as you’ll see below, all four those young men look to have the athleticism, arm strength, and baseball IQ to stick behind the dish after graduation. Don’t think I’m trying to discover what pro teams already know or anything, but a little bit of retrospection about recent draft classes reveals a few worthwhile patterns.  

High school catchers remain one of the most consistently overrated prospect commodities leading up to the draft each year. Every year I expect a nice long run of prep catchers in the early going of the draft and every year I’m confused as the guys I like best have to sit and wait and wait and wait. Two reasons for this, I think. First, defensive certainty is valued far more greatly than offensive upside by professional teams looking for early-round catching. This year’s poster boy for that is Blake Anderson, a fine defensive catcher with little offensive potential. Like any of my crackpot draft theories, there’s no rule written in ink here. Offense-first catching prospects like Kyle Schwarber, Chase Vallot, Mark Zagunis, and Brett Austin being selected within the top ten of all 2014 catchers represents the flesh and blood counterpoint. One theme that runs throughout the majority of this year’s top catching prospects (and believe me, it’s one I can really get behind) is an emphasis on athleticism. Max Pentecost, Zagunis, Jakson Reetz, Austin, Matt Morgan, and Shane Zeile as top five round catchers backs this up. Going back to the original theory, however, makes more sense when a comparison is made between my personal list of top HS catchers and how they really went off the board. It goes without saying that I’m far from the authority on, well, damn near anything, so consider this more of a self-audit than anything else. This year I found myself particularly enamored with offense at the catcher spot. Five of my top six all have some degree of defensive uncertainty. Alex Jackson, Reetz, Vallot, Evan Skoug, and Bryce Carter all could move out from behind the plate before long. Jackson has already moved (expectedly, of course), Vallot split time between catcher and DH in his debut, and both Skoug and Carter face unknown long-term defensive futures at the college level (TCU and Stanford, respectively).    

The second reason is based largely on age, experience, track record, and the larger body of work that comes with all three of those things. I’m by no means suggesting teams select catchers they deem unworthy of ever seeing the big leagues in the top ten rounds – well, maybe in those underslot spots from round 8-10, but even then they are being very picky with who they bring in – but I do think teams are becoming increasingly realistic about how catchers develop as well as what kind of surplus value a catcher can provide during his own minor league incubation. I’m obviously not a heart, hustle, and grit guy, but there are important intangibles at play in life (sports included) and certain positions in life (sports) often require something more in the way of how you conduct yourself personally and professionally. A young catcher with a dependable glove, strong reputation for working with pitchers, and the personality traits shared by good leaders everywhere has value beyond what he does when the lights go on. It is all about development, after all.

Anecdotally, I’ve also noticed a rise of international catchers at every level of organized ball over the past decade plus. I know our youngest players often start at the most demanding defensive spots before moving off if necessary, but it always piques my interest when I see the July 2 rankings come out and the position player group is loaded with catchers, shortstops, and center fielders. This could be my Phillies-bias kicking in (not favoritism per se, but familiarity) as they seem to sign at least one well-regarded international catcher each year as well as an additional one or two mid-priced guys. Perhaps the steady stream of international catchers in need of reps at the lowest levels of pro ball each year has teams more inclined to favor stability (i.e. college catchers) with their other main source of amateur talent acquisition. Whatever the reason, college catchers always seem to be at a premium: 13 of the top 19 catchers taken in this past draft (top ten rounds) were from college, and that’s without counting Hunter Redman, Greg McCall, Adam Martin, Troy Stein, and Seth Spivey, all players signed between rounds eight and ten to significant underslot contracts.    

I said two reasons, but, as always, you can tack on signability as a reason why certain players fall. I ignore signability in my rankings because that’s a factor typically based on information I’m not privy to, but it’s a gigantic talking point in draft rooms for all thirty teams. I have no guess as to whether or not there’s any one position that’s more or less signable – I’d hope pitchers would be for their arms’ sake, but who knows – so signability doesn’t seem to be anything unique to catching. Still, let’s call it three reasons and move on.  

In addition to the names listed in the first paragraph (way up there), big Texans Joe Davis and Michael Hickman, hitters with power that will play at any position, would have cracked the rankings if I was thinking more like last year. Now, however, I think we’ve seen enough data pointing towards pro teams wanting to speed up bats by moving questionable defenders out from behind the plate that it makes more sense to group them both with the first basemen. It’s very possible that one or both will improve enough defensively to join the catchers, so stay tuned. The lightness of the catching position this year – I see no legitimate college catcher getting close to Betts, but I haven’t done a deep dive on that side just yet – could put a little pressure on both prospect and team to keep catching at any cost.

C Chris Betts (Wilson HS, California)
C Wyatt Cross (Legacy HS, Colorado)
C Elih Marrero (Coral Gables HS, Florida)
C Domenic DeRenzo (Pittsburgh Central Catholic HS, Pennsylvania)
C/RHP Nick Dalesandro (Joliet Catholic HS, Illinois)
C Alex Webb (Columbia Central HS, Tennessee)
C Hunter Stovall (Pelham HS, Alabama)
C Eric Jones (South Mecklenburg HS, North Carolina)
C Cal Raleigh (Smoky Mountain HS, North Carolina)
C Chris Cullen (West Forsyth HS, Georgia)
C Noah Croft (Olathe South HS, Kansas)
C Nick Fortes (Deland HS, Florida)
C Tyler Garrison (Mill Valley HS, Kansas)
C Chase Smartt (Charles Henderson HS, Alabama)
C Cole Buffington (Kennesaw Mountain HS, Georgia)
C/RHP Brendan Illies (Puyallup HS, Washington)
C Malik Brown (Birmingham Groves HS, Michigan)
C Tyler Murray (Huntington Beach HS, California)
C Angel Lopez (Perkiomen HS, Pennsylvania)
C Sean Buckhout (Don Bosco Prep, New York)
C Lucas Herbert (San Clemente HS, California)
C Michael Curry (Murphy HS, North Carolina)
C Jackson Lueck (Orangewood Christian HS, Florida)
C/RHP Kyle Davis (Miller HS, Alabama)
C Briggs Benson (Tift County HS, Georgia)
C/RHP Logan Gillaspie (Frontier HS, California)
C/3B Gabriel Garcia (Monteverde Academy, Florida)