I’ve gotten some good comments and emails lately, and it’s my goal to get back to everybody within the next few days. Just wanted to get that out there just so nobody thinks I’m giving them the cold shoulder. My shoulders are nothing if not warm, so stay tuned.

Quick bit of other site-related news: College third base list just needs to be formatted, but is 99% complete and should be up by Thursday morning. While you wait, here’s the latest info on some of this year’s top collegiate arms in terms of ground ball rates. Sample sizes are still on the smaller side, so I’m thinking I may try to look back over each player’s college career before the next update. We’ll see. As always, if you’d like me to add a player to track, feel free…

NC State LHP Carlos Rodon | 59.7%
East Carolina RHP Jeff Hoffman | 58.8%
Vanderbilt RHP Tyler Beede | 47.8%
Florida State RHP Luke Weaver | 61.5%
Mississippi RHP Chris Ellis | 43.3%
UNLV RHP Erik Fedde | 68.9%
LSU RHP Aaron Nola | 41.8%

And by request…

Portland LHP Travis Radke | 46.2%

EDIT: Just because I couldn’t go to bed without at least digging a little deeper, I went through Rodon’s box scores from last year. I can’t guarantee I have every appearance, but I think we’ve got enough here to run with the number. Last year’s GB% for Carlos Rodon was 62.1%, not terribly far off his current 2014 mark. Not sure if I can do this for every pitcher on the list since I quickly realized that doing it with consistent Friday night guys, a position many freshman and sophomores aren’t in no matter how talented (Rodon included), is much easier than having to hunt down starts by guessing correct days, but we’ll see.

Trea Turner is the trendy prospect to pick apart this spring based mostly on the fact he’s been a big name for years and we all tend to overanalyze prospects the longer they’ve been the scene. Actually, that’s not entirely fair: there are valid criticisms about his game, most notably how his swing could limit his future power output against better pitching, so my only real beef with those lower on Turner than most is the insinuation that anybody who likes him as a top ten talent are merely scouting his impressive box scores. I’ll be sticking with my Jacoby Ellsbury (wacky peak year excluded) or Brett Gardner offensive comps for now as I think .300/.350/.400 with 50+ SB in any given year is a reasonable albeit optimistic projection if we’re talking ceiling only. I don’t have any questions about his defensive future, but that’s another area where some worry about his transition in pro ball. I’ve seen him make far too many big league caliber plays – to say nothing of many of the boring, routine plays that count the same – to have any doubts. He’s a shortstop, and potentially a really good one. The fact he could be damn good in center field is a nice though likely unnecessary fallback option. In a down year for college bats, I still think he’s the best option.

There seems to be little consensus about Joey Pankake’s future position; in fact, after asking around, people in the know gave me an even 50/50 split whether or not they thought he could stick up the middle or if he’ll be better served at third base. His placement on this particular list should give you a hint where I’m currently leaning, though I reserve the right to change my mind before June. His relative lack of foot speed – he’s an average at best runner – is why I think some evaluators are turned off at him staying at shortstop, but his first step instincts, arm strength, and athleticism give him a good shot of sticking.

After Turner and Pankake the best college shortstop prospect is…well, I have no idea. I mean, sure, I have some idea, but it’s wide open after those two and probably fair to say that the most honest outcomes for names 3-66 is utility infielder as a professional. Vince Conde and Michael Russell have tons of experience (both starters from day one on campus, more or less) and the requisite positional versatility to profile as potentially strong bench guys at the next level. Julius Gaines, Cole Peragine, and Chris Mariscal were all highly touted prep players who have held their own without lighting the world on fire in college. I have a soft spot for Garrett Mattlage, an underrated prospect with a mature approach to hitting, steady glove, and intriguing power/speed combination. I also like Sutton Whiting, a really good defender and runner who is smart enough to play within himself as a 5-9, 165 pound grinder.

Like the catcher spot, shortstop seems to be a position where a few senior signs get overdrafted in the top ten rounds to help teams stretch their bonus caps to grab higher priced prep talent later. Two-true outcome college star Justin Gonzalez could be that guy, as could the productive Aaron Attaway, the strong-armed Kyle Convissar, or the steady Austin Anderson.

1. North Carolina State JR SS/OF Trea Turner
2. South Carolina JR SS/RHP Joey Pankake
3. Vanderbilt JR SS/2B Vince Conde
4. North Carolina JR SS/OF Michael Russell
5. Florida International JR SS Julius Gaines
6. Texas State JR SS/2B Garrett Mattlage
7. Rhode Island JR SS Tim Caputo
8. Stony Brook JR SS Cole Peragine
9. Florida State rSR SS/3B Justin Gonzalez
10. Virginia Commonwealth JR SS Vimael Machin
11. Louisville JR SS/2B Sutton Whiting
12. Western Carolina SR SS/2B Aaron Attaway
13. Kansas State JR SS Austin Fisher
14. San Diego JR SS/2B Austin Bailey
15. Maryland SR SS Kyle Convissar
16. Illinois State rJR SS Brock Stewart
17. Fresno State JR SS Chris Mariscal
18. Florida Atlantic JR SS Mitch Morales
19. Florida Atlantic JR SS Ricky Santiago
20. Arkansas JR SS Brett McAfee
21. Kentucky JR SS/2B Max Kuhn
22. Mississippi SR SS Austin Anderson
23. Washington State rJR SS Trace Tam Sing
24. Louisville JR SS/2B Zach Lucas
25. California JR SS Chris Paul
26. Rutgers SR SS/2B Nick Favatella
27. Rhode Island SR SS Joe Landi
28. Missouri State JR SS/C Eric Cheray
29. San Diego State JR SS/RHP Steven Pallares
30. Washington JR SS Erik Forgione
31. Oregon State SR SS/3B Kavin Keyes
32. Auburn SR SS Dan Glevenyak
33. Troy SR SS Tyler Vaughn
34. Texas-San Antonio SR SS/2B RJ Perucki
35. Western Michigan JR SS/RHP Andrew Sohn
36. Lamar SR SS Sam Bumpers
37. Arkansas-Little Rock JR SS/RHP Austin Pfeiffer
38. Georgia State SR SS Chad Prain
39. Alabama State JR SS Emmanuel Marrero
40. Northwestern State JR SS Joel Atkinson
41. Texas Tech JR SS Tim Proudfoot
42. Minnesota rJR SS Michael Handel
43. South Florida rSO SS/2B Nik Alfonso
44. Southern Mississippi rJR SS Michael Sterling
45. Gardner-Webb JR SS Ryan Hodge
46. Central Florida JR SS/3B Tommy Williams
47. High Point JR SS/2B Mike Miedzianowski
48. Memphis JR SS Jake Overbey
49. Eastern Michigan JR SS John Rubino
50. UNLV JR SS TJ White
51. Indiana State SR SS Tyler Wampler
52. Mississippi State JR SS Matthew Britton
53. The Citadel JR SS Johnathan Stokes
54. Kent State JR SS Sawyer Polen
55. Cal State Fullerton SR SS/OF Keegan Dale
56. Oregon SR SS Kevin Minjares
57. Columbia SR SS Aaron Silbar
58. Oklahoma SR SS/2B Hector Lorenzana
59. Southern Illinois SR SS/2B Jake Welch
60. Canisius SR SS Ronnie Bernick
61. Louisville SR SS/3B Alex Chittenden
62. Northern Colorado JR SS/2B Ryan Yamane
63. California rJR SS Derek Campbell
64. California JR SS Brenden Farney
65. Central Connecticut State SR SS Anthony Turgeon
66. Southern Mississippi rSO SS Breck Kline

Coverage of high school ball is about to blow up around the internet over the next few days with the NHSI starting up today in beautiful Cary, North Carolina. Naturally, the actual list below has nothing to do with that, other than the fact that I have driven those around me — especially the gal who inexplicably chooses to live with me — to the point of insanity with my all too often refrain of “man, I can’t believe I didn’t get that post about Player X before his huge game yesterday got him tons of online ink…now when I mention him, everybody will assume I’m just stealing somebody else’s scouting report and hopping on the bandwagon.” Not saying I don’t keep my eyes glued on Twitter for updates like any good draft fan, just saying that I think I’ve built up enough goodwill around here over the years that most people realize I’m not the crazy reactionary move a guy up 50 spots because one national writer saw four life-altering at bats type of hack. I’m a hack in a million other ways, obviously, but don’t believe that’s one of them. And yet here I sit still getting nervous about people assuming the worst about me hence the need for the preceding disclaimer. Sorry to go all meta on you, just working through some stuff.

There are a few players listed below who will be in Cary — and more than a few have been blown up the last few weeks on the internet already, Bukauskas and Adams being arguably the most notable — but the real purpose here is to highlight quality early-round talents that have caught my eye at one point or another over the past few months. I debated on whether or not to exclude some of the super obvious names on here, but figured it couldn’t hurt to make mention of my affection for the Jackson’s, Gatewood’s, and Aiken’s of the world. It’s also worth noting that the FAVORITE tag gets put on a guy as soon as it feels right; I won’t BS you and say Gatewood has been a FAVORITE since middle school or anything, but hopefully it is understood that the bigger names have had the label slapped on them for many months at this point. Lastly, a player not getting the FAVORITE tag doesn’t mean he isn’t damn good; case in point, an absolute stone cold top of the first round talent in Tyler Kolek isn’t a FAVORITE for whatever reason, but he’s still really awesome and I’d be pretty pleased if he fell to the Phillies at 7.

I also like to use my FAVORITES list as a personal shopping cart of sorts on draft day. If I was a greedy scouting director, I’d be hoping for at least five of these bats and three of the arms signing contracts with my team this summer. Not sure how realistic that is at this point — those numbers are as low as I’m willing to go in my dream world — so it’ll be fun to check back in mid-June to see how possible hitting those targets will be.

Finally, since you know I hate lists without some kind of added value, I am planning on adding notes about why I love as many as these prospects as I can get to throughout the day. Posting will then be fairly light for a few days as I’m off to go watch some of the names below myself starting Thursday…

• C Alex Jackson
• C Simeon Lucas
• C Evan Skoug
• 1B Jeremy Vazquez
• 1B Bobby Bradley
• 2B Max George
• 2B Isan Diaz
• 2B Jack Gerstenmaier
• 2B Shane Mardirosian
• SS Ti’Quan Forbes
• SS Josh Morgan
• 3B Jacob Gatewood
• 3B Jack Flaherty
• 3B Charlie Cody
• OF Braxton Davidson
• OF Marcus Wilson
• OF Stone Garrett
• OF Zach Shannon
• OF Monte Harrison
• OF Carl Chester
• OF Derek Hill
• OF Jeren Kendall
• LHP Brady Aiken
• RHP Dylan Cease
• RHP Jacob Bukauskas
• RHP Cameron Varga
• RHP Jonathan Teaney
• RHP Keaton McKinney
• RHP Spencer Adams
• LHP Kodi Medeiros
• RHP Sean Reid-Foley
• RHP Cobi Johnson
• RHP Bryan Dobzanski
• RHP TOUKI TOUSSAINT

I’ve been sitting on this list for over a month, forgetting to hit the Publish button and change things up from rough draft to public piece each day. With this past weekend being so crazy for so many Friday night starters around the nation, I figured it’s better to get this first iteration out ASAP before changes are made in June. A few quick notes on what you see below…

I didn’t include pitchers from outside D-1 ball. Not yet. There would certainly be a few additions to this list if I were to add them in. In due time. A few injuries (Troupe, Stephens) and a few risers (like everybody’s new favorite senior Jake Stinnett, ranked 199th on my college pitching list last year for what it’s worth) were not really taken into account, as this list was originally drafted right before the start of the current college season. This has annoyed some people in the past, but it’s how I like it. Barring extreme circumstances, I don’t actually move college guys (HS is a different story) around my personal rankings all that much in the months leading up to the draft. The sites that update big boards every week don’t reflect what actually goes on this time of year in front offices, but, hey, different strokes and all that. Gotta move those draft books somehow, I guess.

As for the list itself…damn, that top ten is a thing of beauty. Not my rankings (though if you want to say that, I won’t stop you), but the quality of the talent available. Even if you quibble with my list — feel free to do so in the comments or via email, by the way — I think there’s enough depth at the top of this year’s pitching class to come up with an outstanding top ten any way you want to break it down. There’s definitely some separation after the top three, but a team drafting late in first round can realistically get their fourth-rated college arm if things line up their way on draft day. Team preference will go a long way in sorting out these pitchers from four on. I’m not sure which pitcher will take that fourth spot come June, but, if pressed today to give a name, I’d say I’m currently leaning Finnegan. I also have to say that I won’t sleep as well tonight knowing I didn’t mention how unhappy I am with Freeland’s low placement. Not sure what I was thinking last month other than the fact I just liked the names above him more (i.e. his ranking is not a knock on him, but a testament to this year’s crazy pitching depth), but I’m 99.99% sure he’ll be significantly higher than this on the next version of a similar list. 

The June list will go way deeper than 72 names (did 500 last year, might do it again this year), but I capped it for now in an attempt to maintain what’s left of my sanity. So many fascinating names didn’t make the cut here, but I’m more than happy to talk about anybody here or not in the comments/via email. Putting this together was a fun little exercise…hope it’s a worthwhile list.

1. East Carolina JR RHP Jeff Hoffman
2. North Carolina State JR LHP Carlos Rodon
3. Vanderbilt JR RHP Tyler Beede
4. Mississippi JR RHP Chris Ellis
5. Florida State JR RHP Luke Weaver
6. UNLV JR RHP Erick Fedde
7. TCU JR LHP Brandon Finnegan
8. LSU JR RHP Aaron Nola
9. Hartford JR LHP Sean Newcomb
10. San Diego State JR RHP Michael Cederoth
11. Louisville JR RHP Nick Burdi
12. Arizona JR RHP Matthew Troupe
13. Rice JR RHP Zech Lemond
14. Notre Dame JR RHP Patrick Connaughton
15. Cal Poly JR LHP Matt Imhof
16. Oregon State JR LHP Jace Fry
17. Louisiana-Lafayette JR RHP Austin Robichaux
18. Fresno State JR RHP Derick Velazquez
19. Florida rJR RHP Karsten Whitson
20. Stanford SR RHP AJ Vanegas
21. Oregon rSO LHP Porter Clayton
22. Southern Mississippi JR RHP Brad Roney
23. Evansville JR LHP Kyle Freeland
24. Hawaii JR LHP Scott Squier
25. USC JR RHP Wyatt Strahan
26. Arizona JR RHP Tyler Parmenter
27. Portland JR LHP Travis Radke
28. Texas A&M JR RHP Daniel Mengden
29. North Carolina JR RHP Benton Moss
30. Miami JR LHP Andrew Suarez
31. Fresno State JR RHP/OF Jordan Brink
32. Virginia JR RHP Nick Howard
33. Mississippi JR RHP Hawtin Buchanan
34. Southern Illinois JR RHP Sam Coonrod
35. Texas JR RHP Parker French
36. Wichita State JR RHP AJ Ladwig
37. Central Florida JR LHP Eric Skoglund
38. Rice JR RHP Jordan Stephens
39. Texas A&M JR RHP Corey Ray
40. Auburn JR RHP Rocky McCord
41. Mississippi State JR RHP Jonathan Holder
42. Kentucky JR RHP Chandler Shepherd
43. Florida JR RHP Ryan Harris
44. Arkansas JR RHP Chris Oliver
45. Texas JR LHP Dillon Peters
46. North Carolina State JR RHP Logan Jernigan
47. Clemson SO LHP Matthew Crownover
48. Mississippi State JR LHP Jacob Lindgren
49. South Carolina Upstate JR RHP Chad Sobotka
50. Central Michigan JR RHP Jordan Foley
51. UNC Wilmington JR RHP Jordan Ramsey
52. Tulane rJR RHP Randy LeBlanc
53. Portland JR RHP Kody Watts
54. North Carolina Greensboro JR RHP Max Povse
55. Western Illinois JR RHP Tyler Willman
56. USC JR RHP Nigel Nootbaar
57. Clemson JR RHP Daniel Gossett
58. Pepperdine JR LHP Aaron Brown
59. Illinois State JR RHP Jeremy Rhoades
60. Mississippi State JR RHP Brandon Woodruff
61. Charlotte rJR RHP Ryan Butler
62. Texas rSO RHP John Curtiss
63. Ohio State rJR RHP/1B Josh Dezse
64. Oregon JR RHP Jake Reed
65. Texas JR RHP Lukas Schiraldi
66. Washington State rJR RHP Scott Simon
67. Loyola Marymount JR RHP Trevor Megill
68. Lipscomb rJR RHP Hunter Brothers
69. Arizona State JR RHP Darin Gillies
70. Alabama JR RHP Spencer Turnbull
71. Texas A&M JR RHP Gandy Stubblefield
72. Louisville JR LHP Joey Filomeno

Brian Anderson checks a ton of boxes: arm, defensive versatility, speed, power, size, approach, and bat speed in excess. All aforementioned tools are at least average, so the only real question is how much he’ll actually hit going forward. My total not a comp comparison for him is JaCoby Jones, both in terms of talent level and draft floor. This may be an oversimplification, but Alex Blandino has almost the opposite scouting profile: not crazy toolsy, but born to hit. If he keeps doing what he’s done so far this spring, he’ll likely find himself atop this list by June.

After A and B, there’s C. Branden Cogswell follows Anderson and Blandino because of his solid all-around skill set and outstanding plate discipline. I’m not quite there in proclaiming him, or anybody following him on the list for that matter, a future regular in the big leagues due to his limited power ceiling, but I do enjoy scooping up quick-moving, valuable bench contributors from college after most of the upside gambles are off the board.

As mentioned above, there really is a significant gap between Anderson/Blandino (easy to see starter upside) and the rest of the 2B class (likely backups, but some good ones). I’m not saying that you could put the next dozen names or so and a hat and pull a perfectly acceptable order, but I’m not saying you can’t, either.

I genuinely like the two seniors (Ross Kivett and Kyle Ruchim) as top ten round targets that can both save you some dough and give you a potentially useful role player going forward. Kivett is the more famous prospect – still shocked he didn’t sign as a tenth rounder last year – and his speed, smarts, and sneaky pop make him fun to watch. Ruchim is less well-known, but, in my view, no less talented. I actually had Ruchim as high as fourth on original iterations of this list because of my appreciation of his approach, defense, versatility (fine in both SS and CF in a pinch), and the always comforting fallback plan on the mound (low-90s FB and SL that flashes plus).

The juniors are an interesting class at the top as I think there are more tools here than in most years. Gunnar Heidt’s flashes of power, Austin Davidson’s pedigree, Caleb Whalen’s offensive upside, Casey Turgeon’s glove and baseball IQ, Trent Gilbert’s swing, Grant Kay’s breakthrough, and Frankie Ratcliff’s redemption (I’m cheating since he’s a senior but go with it) are all worth following this spring. Really like Jace Conrad’s underrated speed/glove/approach/experience vibe; Caden Bailey’s tools aren’t quite at that level, but he’s above-average in those areas all the same. There are many others that I’d love to write about like Dante Flores (another pedigree guy), old favorite Steve Wilkerson, Stephen Ventimilia (love his athleticism and energy), and Ivy League star Thomas Roulis, but I need to cut myself off before I put people to sleep. One last name that I’ll be very curious to see gets drafted is Kevin Kramer, a good prospect who is out in 2014 (shoulder) yet still might be worth a mid-round pick if deemed even remotely signable. I’d guess he’s back at UCLA in 2015, but you never know.

1. Arkansas JR 2B/SS/OF Brian Anderson
2. Stanford JR 2B/3B Alex Blandino
3. Virginia JR 2B/SS Branden Cogswell
4. College of Charleston JR 2B/SS Gunnar Heidt
5. Pepperdine JR 2B/SS Austin Davidson
6. Kansas State SR 2B Ross Kivett
7. Northwestern SR 2B/RHP Kyle Ruchim
8. Portland JR 2B/OF Caleb Whalen
9. Florida JR 2B/SS Casey Turgeon
10. Arizona JR 2B Trent Gilbert
11. Louisville JR 2B Grant Kay
12. Houston SR 2B Frankie Ratcliff
13. Louisiana-Lafayette JR 2B Jace Conrad
14. Georgia State JR 2B/SS Caden Bailey
15. Long Island-Brooklyn SR 2B/SS John Ziznewski
16. USC JR 2B Dante Flores
17. UC Davis rJR 2B/OF Tino Lipson
18. North Carolina State JR 2B/3B Logan Ratledge
19. Clemson SR 2B/SS Steve Wilkerson
20. Nebraska JR 2B/SS Pat Kelly
21. Hawaii JR 2B Stephen Ventimilia
22. Western Carolina JR 2B/3B Brad Strong
23. Dartmouth JR 2B/SS Thomas Roulis
24. UCLA JR 2B/3B Kevin Kramer
25. Mississippi State SR 2B Brett Pirtle
26. Washington JR 2B/3B Robert Pehl
27. South Alabama rJR 2B Logan Kirkland
28. Wisconsin-Milwaukee JR 2B Michael Porcaro
29. Northeastern JR 2B/SS Jason Vosler
30. UC Riverside JR 2B/OF Joe Chavez
31. Charlotte JR 2B/SS Mikal Hill
32. Bradley rSO 2B Chris Godinez
33. Georgia Tech JR 2B/SS Thomas Smith
34. UNC Wilmington SR 2B Luis Renvill
35. Indiana JR 2B/OF Casey Rodrigue
36. Miami SR 2B/SS Alex Hernandez
37. Charlotte JR 2B/OF Brad Elwood
38. Georgia Tech SR 2B/SS Mott Hyde
39. Maine SR 2B/SS Troy Black
40. Richmond SR 2B Adam Forrer
41. Arizona State JR 2B/SS Drew Stankiewicz
42. South Florida JR 2B/SS Kyle Teaf
43. San Diego State SR 2B Tim Zier
44. Georgia JR 2B/SS Nelson Ward
45. Texas A&M JR 2B/SS Blake Allemand
46. The Citadel JR 2B Mason Davis
47. Cal State Bakersfield SR 2B Oscar Sanay
48. Elon SR 2B/SS Sebastian Gomez
49. Arkansas-Pine Bluff SR 2B/SS Isias Alcantar
50. Loyola Marymount JR 2B/SS David Edwards
51. Oklahoma JR 2B/SS Josh Ake
52. Texas JR 2B Brooks Marlow
53. North Carolina Greensboro rSO 2B/OF Benigno Marrero
54. Tennessee Tech JR 2B/SS Dylan Bosheers
55. San Jose State SR 2B Jacob Valdez
56. Wichita State SR 2B/SS Dayne Parker
57. Oregon SR 2B Aaron Payne
58. Maryland JR 2B Andrew Amaro
59. UC Riverside JR 2B/SS Alex Rubanowitz
60. Youngstown State SR 2B/SS Phil Lipari
61. Baylor rSR 2B Lawton Langford
62. UCLA SR 2B/OF Kevin Williams
63. Stanford SR 2B/RHP Brett Michael Doran
64. Stanford SR 2B/SS Danny Diekroeger
65. Oregon State SR 2B/SS Andy Peterson
66. Tennessee Tech SR 2B/SS Zach Zarzour
67. Nicholls State SR 2B Phillip Lyons
68. Monmouth SR 2B/SS Jake Gronsky
69. Binghamton SR 2B Daniel Nevares
70. Radford JR 2B Josh Gardiner
71. Rice JR 2B/SS Ford Stainback
72. Nebraska-Omaha JR 2B Caleb Palensky
73. Mississippi State rJR 2B/OF Demarcus Henderson
74. Oral Roberts JR 2B Matt Brandy
75. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi SR 2B Cody Stephens
76. Wright State SR 2B Joe Ford
77. North Dakota State SR 2B Wes Satzinger
78. Siena SR 2B Vince Citro
79. Kentucky SR 2B Matt Reida
80. Towson SR 2B Pat Fitzgerald
81. McNeese State rJR 2B/SS Connor Lloyd
82. Kansas JR 2B Justin Protacio
83. Hofstra SR 2B Matt Ford
84. Georgetown JR 2B Ryan Busch
85. Central Michigan JR 2B Pat MacKenzie
86. Xavier SR 2B Selby Chidemo

Title says it all. Stats have been updated through this past weekend. Radke’s only made three starts, but the rest haven’t missed a turn yet. It’s still early enough in the year that I’m happy to add another name or two to the list if anybody has a request. Most recently added player is LSU RHP Aaron Nola. I know stuff like this doesn’t matter, but pretty crazy that in Nola’s first four starts of the year his team won by a combined score of 50-0. After beating a decent Vanderbilt team this past Friday — apparently there was some hype around this game, who knew — his combined score when starting is down to a paltry 54-2. Pretty good.

NC State LHP Carlos Rodon | 67.9%
East Carolina RHP Jeff Hoffman | 57.7%
Vanderbilt RHP Tyler Beede | 49.1%
Florida State RHP Luke Weaver | 51.2%
Mississippi RHP Chris Ellis | 43.1%
UNLV RHP Erik Fedde | 64.4%
LSU RHP Aaron Nola | 44.0%

And by request…

Portland LHP Travis Radke | 46.2%

College first basemen are some of the most difficult players to rank this early in the draft process because, of any amateur position, first base is the spot I utilize data almost as much as scouting reports. There are many things to look for in young batters when it comes to projecting the hit and power tool; for starters, you’re looking for swing mechanics (balance, rotation, gather, load, fluidity, repeatability, etc.), vision (tracking pitches), bat to ball contact (cliché or not, there is a unique sound you’re hoping to hear), bat speed, and, one of my biggest things for power, how well the hitter’s upper and lower body work together. Seeing and hearing about these things is vitally important, but, more so than any other tools (and to paraphrase national treasure Rasheed Wallace), bat don’t lie. If you can hit, your production will reflect it.

There’s obvious risk in selecting a two tool (or 1.5 if you think less of his pure hit tool than I) player with a high pick, but if you’re going to do so then it’s alright if it’s a) the power and hit tool we’re talking about, and b) a first baseman. That’s the argument in favor of one of my favorite 2014 hitters, Casey Gillaspie. The argument against is similarly succinct: he won’t do the same damage with wood, his bat speed is more good than great, and, my favorite, the “I know it may not matter as much as an up-the-middle spot, but defense at first base still matters, dummy!” line. Perfectly reasonable points, all. I currently have a hard time seeing him dipping below where last year’s first college first baseman went (late third round), but we’ll see.

It could be a byproduct of a faulty memory, but this year’s class seems to have a higher number of “name” prospects that haven’t lived up to their college billing just yet. Kevin Cron is the poster boy for said group, but you can also slot in Ryan Krill, Zach Ratcliff, Rouric Bridgewater, and AJ Murray. On production alone, these guys shouldn’t be anywhere close to the top of the rankings, but tools are tools and upside is upside, you know? It’ll be fun to track each of these guys this spring; hopefully one or more bust out and become the players many thought they could be.

I think the signature rankings here are probably the aggressive placement of Austin Byler, Jake Madsen, Zander Wiel, and Tyler Mautner. Slow start notwithstanding, Byler’s power is legit and his approach to hitting, while not reflected just yet in terms of BB/K ratios (36 BB/79 K coming into the season), is well-suited for professional ball. Madsen’s early season struggles mirror Byler’s, but I know some in the game who think he can be a high-average, plus glove at first base at the next level. Wiel, a powerfully built 6-3, 215 pounder, impressed in limited 2013 at bats and has picked up where he left off so far in 2014. Mautner has been one of the best hitters in college ball to date (just hitting .500/.605/.917 in 8 games), but I’m more interested in hearing about how he’s looked defensively. The bat is one I believe in without question, but if he can hang in outfield corner as some have speculated then his stock will shoot up. Reports on his body and athleticism will be big.

It’s impossible for me to not comment on one of this draft’s most interesting prospects, Bo Thompson. I’ll throw down five imaginary internet dollars that he’s an Astro (if signable) by mid-summer. The 5-10, 255 pound round mound of [clever rhyming word that denotes plate discipline] walked twice as often as he struck out last season all while putting up a .325/.493/.613 schedule/park adjusted line.

AJ Reed feels right where he is, but any spot on a prospect ranking does a disservice to what kind of college player he is. He’s a legit two-way prospect with big league tools both at first and on the mound. I’ve gone back and forth on his eventual home since his first day at Kentucky, but his crazy hot start to 2014 as a hitter has me leaning that way.

You may have noticed that the top name on the list hasn’t been written about in this space yet. I’ve always been at a loss as to what to say about the best prospects in each year’s draft class. There are only so many ways to say “he’s good” without sounding like a fool. I’ll give it a shot anyway. Kyle Schwarber is a really gifted hitter who, solely in terms of amateur prospect stock, reminds me a good deal of CJ Cron. Cron was another college catcher expected to move to first base professionally. The popular comp for Cron in his draft year is the same as one I’ve heard mentioned for Schwarber as well: Paul Konerko. The slightly less popular comp for Schwarber but one that I see gaining steam as we get closer to June: left-handed hitting Mike Napoli (think Aaron Fitt has been using that one). I held the minority view that Cron could be a passable catcher in the pros with work, so it should be no shock I feel the same way about Schwarber. That said, if my job depended on it, I’d probably want Schwarber to move out from behind the dish as soon as possible in order to get his bat to the big leagues in a hurry. That’s where the Konerko and Napoli comps really work. It also makes me wonder how legitimate the whole “moving off of catcher to hurry along the bat” argument is; true, common sense seems to be a point in its favor, but I’d love to see a real study done on the matter. No idea how you’d even begin to figure something like that out, as there are so many variables at play and no clear way to find a control group without opening up alternate universes or something. Pouring one out for Jeff Clement tonight.

The meanest thing I’ve heard a scout say about Schwarber is that he reminded him far too much of Rich Poythress for his liking. Beyond that, there’s been nothing but praise about the bat. Kiley McDaniel has compared him to both Travis Hafner and DJ Peterson. Perfect Game has mentioned the name Matt Nokes. One unique name that I heard – and my favorite player when I was ten years old and way too into playing World Series Baseball for Game Gear – is former Oriole Chris Hoiles. Any of those outcomes would be more than fair value for where he’s expected to go (mid-first ceiling) in the draft. So, yeah, four hundred plus words later we’ve reached our conclusion: he’s good.

37 first basemen from four-year colleges were selected last June beginning with Daniel Palka at 3-88 and ending with Cody Yount at 37-1113. Here is almost three times that amount for your consideration…

1. Indiana JR 1B/C Kyle Schwarber
2. Wichita State JR 1B Casey Gillaspie
3. Indiana JR 1B/OF Sam Travis
4. Cal State Fullerton JR 1B/RHP JD Davis
5. Kentucky JR 1B/LHP AJ Reed
6. TCU JR 1B Kevin Cron
7. Nevada JR 1B/3B Austin Byler
8. Ohio JR 1B Jake Madsen
9. Mississippi State JR 1B Wes Rea
10. Vanderbilt rSO 1B Zander Wiel
11. Rice JR 1B/C Skyler Ewing
12. Buffalo rSO 1B/3B Tyler Mautner
13. Michigan State JR 1B Ryan Krill
14. Ohio State SO 1B/OF Zach Ratcliff
15. Grand Canyon JR 1B/OF Rouric Bridgewater
16. Duke rJR 1B Chris Marconcini
17. Georgia Tech JR 1B/C AJ Murray
18. Central Florida JR 1B/OF James Vasquez
19. UC Irvine JR 1B Connor Spencer
20. The Citadel JR 1B Bo Thompson
21. Hawaii SR 1B Marc Flores
22. UC Santa Barbara rJR 1B Tyler Kuresa
23. Texas A&M JR 1B/C Cole Lankford
24. Wake Forest rSR 1B/LHP Matt Conway
25. James Madison SR 1B Conner Brown
26. Portland rJR 1B/OF Turner Gill
27. New Mexico JR 1B/OF Ryan Padilla
28. East Tennessee State SR 1B/LHP Clint Freeman
29. Long Beach State SR 1B/OF Ino Patron
30. Washington JR 1B Trevor Mitsui
31. Towson JR 1B/3B Brendan Butler
32. Florida State JR 1B John Nogowski
33. Louisiana State JR 1B/C Tyler Moore
34. Mercer SR 1B Nick Backlund
35. Louisiana-Lafayette SR 1B/3B Chase Compton
36. Presbyterian SR 1B/C Brad Zebedis
37. Kansas State rJR 1B/LHP Shane Conlon
38. Nevada JR 1B/LHP Kewby Meyer
39. Texas A&M SO 1B/RHP Hunter Melton
40. Oklahoma State SR 1B/RHP Tanner Krietemeier
41. Louisville SR 1B/OF Jeff Gardner
42. Western Carolina SR 1B/C Adam Martin
43. Seton Hall JR 1B/OF Sal Annunziata
44. Central Michigan rJR 1B Cody Leichman
45. South Carolina JR 1B Kyle Martin
46. Tennessee SR 1B/OF Scott Price
47. Clemson SR 1B/OF Jon McGibbon
48. Lipscomb JR 1B/RHP Griffin Moore
49. Tulane JR 1B/3B Tyler Wilson
50. San Jose State SR 1B Matt Carroll
51. Northeastern JR 1B Rob Fonseca
52. UNC Wilmington JR 1B Corey Dick
53. St. Mary’s JR 1B/LHP Collin Ferguson
54. Northern Colorado SR 1B/LHP Nick Miller
55. Texas State SR 1B Austin O’Neal
56. Samford SR 1B/OF Caleb Bryson
57. Appalachian State rSO 1B/OF Alex Leach
58. San Francisco SR 1B/C Zachary Turner
59. Eastern Michigan SR 1B Lee Longo
60. West Virginia SR 1B Ryan McBroom
61. Houston rSR 1B Casey Grayson
62. Minnesota rSR 1B/OF Dan Olinger
63. Sacramento State JR 1B/OF Rhys Hoskins
64. North Dakota JR 1B/RHP Jeff Campbell
65. Western Carolina JR 1B/LHP Jacob Hoyle
66. Texas A&M JR 1B/OF GR Hinsley
67. Alabama SR 1B Austen Smith
68. Texas State JR 1B/OF Colby Targun
69. Prairie View A&M SR 1B Dominiq Harris
70. California rSR 1B Devon Rodriguez
71. UCLA JR 1B/3B Chris Keck
72. Tennessee Tech SR 1B Zach Stephens
73. Southeast Missouri State SR 1B Matt Tellor
74. Maine SR 1B/3B Alex Calbick
75. McNeese State SR 1B/3B Taylor Drake
76. Liberty JR 1B/3B Alex Close
77. Arkansas-Pine Bluff JR 1B/LHP Andre Davis
78. Canisius JR 1B/3B Connor Panas
79. New Jersey Tech SR 1B Tom Bouck
80. Stony Brook SR 1B/LHP Kevin Courtney
81. Canisius SR 1B Jimmy Luppens
82. Mississippi JR 1B/C Sikes Orvis
83. North Florida SR 1B/C Ryan Roberson
84. South Carolina rSR 1B Brison Celek
85. Washington JR 1B Branden Berry
86. Wisconsin-Milwaukee SR 1B/OF Ryan Solberg
87. Xavier rJR 1B/OF Brian Bruening
88. Sam Houston State JR 1B Ryan O’Hearn
89. Morehead State JR 1B Kane Sweeney
90. North Carolina Greensboro JR 1B Aaron Wright
91. Georgia State SR 1B Nic Wilson
92. Dartmouth SR 1B Dustin Selzer
93. McNeese State SR 1B Chayse Marion
94. Norfolk State SR 1B Zach Markel
95. Samford SR 1B/LHP Patrick McGavin
96. North Dakota State SR 1B/C Kyle Kleinendorst
97. Nicholls State rSR 1B/3B Tyler Duplantis
98. Navy SR 1B Kash Manzelli
99. Wofford rSR 1B Seth Neely
100. Cornell SR 1B Ryan Plantier
101. Yale SR 1B Jacob Hunter
102. Arkansas rJR 1B Eric Fisher
103. Lehigh SR 1B Tyler Brong

Mark Zagunis and Max Pentecost are both exceptional athletes for the position. Heck, forget position: both are really good athletes full stop. The latter is the better bet to stick behind the plate as a pro – there are really no questions there – but the former has more present power, a more disciplined approach, and comparable defensive upside. Zagunis needs more work behind the plate, but the strides that he has made since enrolling at Virginia Tech have made me a believer that he’ll keep working to get there. The bat will play anywhere, but, man, it’ll look so much better if he’s an average or better backstop. More on Pentecost, the internet’s consensus top catching prospect from earlier…

You can’t really follow amateur ball and not love what JR C Max Pentecost brings to the table. Catchers who flash all five tools (none worse than average) who are assured to stick behind the plate long-term have that kind of effect on people. I’ve long posited a theory that there are two central types of amateur catching prospects: plus arm/plus power oversized (and often stiff) all-or-nothing players and well-rounded, athletic smaller framed players. Pentecost clearly falls more into the latter group than the former. He’s really athletic, runs well (and not just for a catcher, either!), and throws well. I’m lighter on the bat that most – though average hit tool and average raw power are nothing to dismiss, especially for a catcher – but that’s more of a product of me being not 100% ready to buy his outstanding run on the Cape this summer as the “real” Pentecost. If that power spike is real, and many smarter than me seem to have bought in, I could see Pentecost getting some warranted Jonathan Lucroy comps. That would make him a no-brainer first rounder, right?

Chris Harvey is a really difficult prospect to pin down, in no small part to the limited playing time he’s received through two full seasons at Vanderbilt. He’s different from the well-rounded, plus running (for the position) duo discussed in the preceding paragraph: Harvey’s game is built around power upside, arm strength, and brute strength, something he does not lack one bit in his 6-5, 220 pound frame. I’ve written a lot about those two main catcher archetypes over the years and this year’s class does not lack for each type. We have Zagunis, Pentecost, and Brett Austin on one side, and Harvey and Aramis Garcia on the other. These are imperfect categories, of course, as Zagunis has showed as much present power as any other 2014 college catcher (save Garcia) and Harvey is a really underrated athlete in his own right, but we’ve chosen our narrative so might as well run with it.

Grayson Greiner is easy to like on paper, especially if you like his defense as much as I do (more than most, I concede), but he’s one of those rare amateurs that it helps to watch up close and talk to those who’ve played with him to fully appreciate. He’s talented enough to eventually emerge as a starting caliber professional catcher, but, failing that, he’s still the kind of person you want on your 25-man roster in some capacity. I’ve heard but not seen firsthand the same things about Wayne Taylor. Both profile as high-floor backup backstops at minimum.

Riley Moore was a big prep favorite who has more than held his own collegiately so far. Bre’shon Kimbell is another former famous high school prospect who could move up boards with a big spring. Tyler Baker (compact frame but really good athleticism and one of college ball’s biggest performance jumps between year one and two portend good things to come) and Shane Zeile are converted infielders with ample defensive upside.

I mentioned this in an earlier post on catchers, but the ACC really is stacked this year. If you’re at an ACC game, chances are you are witnessing a future professional catcher. Zagunis, Boulware, and Austin are the most famous, but Garrett Kennedy (unheralded prospect who just keeps getting better) and Nate Irving (if you believe in his defensive tools as I do) bear watching.

Speaking solely about defense, I think there are very few players who may be asked to move out from the plate professionally. It’s hard to say if that’s because of a stronger than usual defensive bunch or due to my rankings weighing that side of the game more heavily than in years past. Zagunis could be moved to an outfield spot if a team wanted to get his bat to the bigs as quickly as possible, but I think that’s unlikely. Harvey and Greiner both have the size that may scare teams away (again, not likely as both players would lose most of their value at any other spot), and Gushue’s slow and steady defensive improvement may not have come quick enough for some teams to buy him as a pro catcher. Kimbell and Kevin Krause are rough around the edges but show promise, and Nate Causey and Wade Wass may be better as first basemen in the long run.

Connor Joe (if his defense holds up), Kyle Pollock (if his hit tool plays), and Chase Griffin (if he can tap into his big raw power) all could be big risers with big springs.

1. Virginia Tech JR C/OF Mark Zagunis
2. Florida International JR C Aramis Garcia
3. Kennesaw State JR C Max Pentecost
4. South Carolina JR C Grayson Greiner
5. Vanderbilt C Chris Harvey
6. Clemson JR C/OF Garrett Boulware
7. North Carolina State JR C Brett Austin
8. Arizona JR C Riley Moore
9. Florida JR C Taylor Gushue
10. Stanford JR C Wayne Taylor
11. Florida JR C Braden Mattson
12. Rice JR C John Clay Reeves
13. Miami JR C Garrett Kennedy
14. Louisiana Tech JR C/3B Bre’shon Kimbell
15. Virginia JR C Nate Irving
16. Stony Brook JR C/OF Kevin Krause
17. Wichita State JR C Tyler Baker
18. New Mexico JR C Alex Real
19. UCLA JR C/3B Shane Zeile
20. Arizona State JR C/1B Nate Causey
21. Alabama rJR C/1B Wade Wass
22. Texas SR C Jacob Felts
23. Auburn SR C Blake Austin
24. Mercer SR C Austin Barrett
25. Michigan State JR C/1B Blaise Salter
26. San Diego JR C/1B Connor Joe
27. Louisiana-Lafayette rJR C/OF Mike Strentz
28. Nebraska JR C Tanner Lubach
29. Stetson JR C Garrett Russini
30. Evansville JR C Kyle Pollock
31. Texas-Arlington SR C Greg McCall
32. Georgia Southern JR C Chase Griffin
33. Kentucky rSO C Greg Fettes
34. Pepperdine JR C Kolten Yamaguchi
35. Florida State JR C Daniel De La Calle
36. Alabama State JR C Richard Gonzalez
37. Evansville SR C/1B Jake Mahon
38. UNLV rSO C Scott Tomassetti
39. Duke rJR C Mike Rosenfeld
40. USC JR C Garrett Stubbs
41. Washington State SR C/OF Collin Slaybaugh
42. Illinois State SR C Mike Hollenbeck
43. South Carolina rJR C/OF Patrick Harrington
44. South Carolina Upstate SR C Luke Weber
45. High Point JR C Josh Spano
46. TCU rSO C Ryan Delso
47. Xavier JR C Derek Hasenbeck
48. North Dakota SR C Taylor Petersen
49. Seattle rSR C/OF Ryan Somers
50. North Dakota SR C Zack Trygstad
51. Mississippi SR C Will Allen
52. Wagner JR C Nick Dini
53. Sam Houston State SR C Anthony Azar
54. Eastern Michigan SR C/1B Adam Sonabend
55. USC SR C/1B Jake Hernandez
56. Michigan SR C Cole Martin
57. Louisville SR C Kyle Gibson
58. Kansas SR C/2B Kai’ana Eldredge
59. Kansas State rSR C Blair DeBord
60. UC Irvine JR C/SS Chris Rabago
61. Middle Tennessee State JR C Michael Adkins
62. Florida Atlantic SR C Levi Meyer
63. Mississippi JR C Austin Knight
64. Texas A&M SR C Troy Stein
65. San Diego State rJR C Brad Haynal
66. Missouri SR C Dylan Kelly
67. Stanford SR C Brant Whiting
68. UC Irvine rJR C Jerry McClanahan
69. Columbia SR C Mike Fischer
70. Bradley SR C Austin Jarvis
71. Cal Poly SR C Chris Hoo
72. Texas A&M JR C Mitchell Nau
73. Mississippi State JR C Cody Walker
74. Texas State rSR C Tyler Pearson
75. Northwestern State JR C CJ Webster
76. Louisiana-Lafayette JR C/3B Evan Powell
77. Dartmouth JR C Matt MacDowell
78. Sacred Heart SR C Dan Perez
79. Arkansas SR C Jake Wise
80. Wofford JR C Matt Ramsay
81. UNC Wilmington SR C Drew Farber
82. New Orleans SR C Brian Dixon
83. Elon rSO C/RHP Michael Elefante
84. Penn JR C Austin Bossart
85. Delaware State SR C Mike Alexander
86. Austin Peay State SR C PJ Torres
87. Belmont JR C Matt Beaty
88. Southern JR C/RHP Sam May
89. Belmont JR C/INF Alec Diamond
90. Belmont JR C Jamie Ritchie
91. Eastern Kentucky SR C Sean Hagen
92. Nebraska-Omaha JR C/OF Alex Mortensen
93. Lehigh SR C Joe Abeln