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Basketball School No More: Kentucky Wildcats
As the following run-on sentence shows, I’m really not much of a writer. Knowing this about myself, I’m always on the lookout for a clever hook that can help me find a way to share a little bit of what I know in a way that is a little bit more readable than yet another list. Since much of the past four days was spent keeping tabs on the NCAA basketball tournament, I figured going with the prohibitive favorite university on brackets across the country (mine included) would be a fine excuse to write about one of baseball’s biggest early season surprises. We’re almost certainly getting too far ahead of ourselves with the title, but let’s enjoy the Wildcats perfect start and talk some Kentucky baseball anyway.
I’m a gigantic fan of JR C Luke Maile. In fact, I’m a big enough fan that I think he’s the second best college catcher from any of the AQ conference schools I’ve looked at so far. He came into the year with everything checked off on my”potential big league starting catcher” checklist (power, arm, athleticism, works deep counts), but needed to do a better job defensively and improve his two strike approach. So far, so good. All the reports about his defense have been positive this spring (well, winter) and his impressive 11/3 BB/K ratio matches up nicely with his own stated goal of shortening his two strike swing. Maile is the second best catching prospect in the SEC, the second best catching prospect in any AQ conference, and, who knows, he might just be the second best catching prospect in all of college baseball. Alright, that last point might be stretching it a bit (a certain Horned Frog might have something to say about that, as might a major thumper who calls Western New York home), but he’ll be up there.
In addition to Maile, Kentucky has three other position players worth watching. SR C Michael Williams won’t hit enough to ever play everyday, but his defense is so damn good that he is a solid draft as a potential backup catcher down the line. JR OF Brian Adams is similar to Williams in that any team taking a chance on him on draft day is doing so based largely on tools beyond his bat. The former football star is an outstanding athlete with plus-plus speed, but is still super duper raw when it comes to the finer points of actually playing baseball. SR 3B Thomas McCarthy’s 2012 numbers are down, but his 2011 production (.376/.443/.590 – 20 BB/32 K – 210 AB) and average across the board tools are enough to at least get on the radar at one of the draft’s weaker positions. Kentucky also has a pair of hot hitting transfers lighting it up in JR OF Cameron Flynn (via Morehead State) and JR OF Zac Zellers (via Heartland CC).
Kentucky also has a trio of lefthanders who should all get looks throughout the spring. SR LHP Alex Phillips is far from a household name, but he has the funky lefty stuff down pat. Good deception, plus command, and a super change help him get consistent outs at the college level (7.05 K/9 in 2011, 9.60 K/9 so far in 2012) despite not having the fastest of fastballs (sits mid-80s, peaks up near 87-88). The total package sounds like it could play as a late round senior sign with LOOGY upside. The two bigger name lefties on the Wildcats staff both slot in quite comfortably in the draft’s first ten rounds. JR LHP Taylor Rogers sits in the upper-80s with room for more as his body fills out. He already throws two good offspeed pitches for strikes – his changeup is consistently above-average and flashes plus, while his upper-70s curve is nasty when on. JR LHP Jerad Grundy, finally settled in at Kentucky by way of Miami and Heatland CC, has found success with a fastball with a little more juice than Rogers’ and a much improved slider. Both lefties are off to excellent starts in 2012, but the exciting thought is that there are even better days ahead for each.
JR RHP Chris Garrison and JR RHP Walter Wijas both have good stuff, but haven’t done it at the college level with enough consistency to call either sure-fire drafts. Garrison profiles better as a pro — good fastball, two good breaking balls, especially his slider, and a usable splitter — but he’ll need to turn things around quickly and/or hope scouts catch him on his best days if he wants to get drafted where his talent should get him popped. Western Nevada transfer JR RHP Tim Peterson has also put himself in the draft mix with a big start to his season.
Looking ahead to the next two drafts, there’s some solid talent to be found in the Bluegrass State. SO LHP Corey Littrell (2013) has the three pitches (FB/CU/SL, all with above-average or better upside) to start as a pro while SO RHP Trevor Gott (2013) has that classic fastball/slider combo to excel in the back of a bullpen. SO 2B JT Riddle (2013) could be talked about as one of the better prospects at his position (or at third) with a big sophomore season. FR 2B Max Kuhn (2014) might wind up as an even better version of Riddle by his draft year. The Wildcats also have a few outfielders of note to watch out for in the next few years. SO OF Lucas Witt (2013) and FR OF Austin Cousino (2014) are both good athletes with enough range to hang in center who show off that patient approach at the plate that you like to see in young hitters. A trio of 2014 arms in RHP Chandler Shepherd, LHP AJ Reed (might be best off as a hitter at 1B), and RHP Taylor Martin all could emerge as early round picks in time.
AQ Conference Follow List: 2012 MLB Draft Catchers
Anybody who has paid even the slightest bit of interest in this year’s draft class (i.e. literally nobody I actually talk to in real life) knows who is number one among the following group of catchers. The real question here is who’s number two after Alex San Juan Mike Zunino? I actually think there are three fairly similar guys (good power/arm, questionable defense) right behind him in spots two through four, followed by three additional personal favorites (Jacob Stallings alert!) that help round out the AQ conference super seven group of catching prospects. I’ll share the names later on, but I’m curious to see if anybody out there has an opinion on which players should fall in after Zunino. For extra credit: is your number two catcher from this group of AQ conference catchers the same as your number two catcher in all of college baseball? I don’t think mine will be, but I won’t know for sure until another week or so after I finish reviewing the rest of the conferences here on the site. With no further ado, here’s a list of all of my personal AQ conference follow list for catchers eligible for the 2012 MLB Draft…
- Arizona State JR C Max Rossiter
- Baylor JR C Nathan Orf
- Baylor SR C Josh Ludy
- California SR C Chadd Krist
- Cincinnati SR C Braden Kline
- Clemson JR C Spencer Kieboom
- Clemson SR C Phil Pohl
- Connecticut rSR C Joe Pavone
- Duke JR C Jeff Kremer
- Florida JR C Mike Zunino
- Florida State rSO C Stephen McGee
- Georgia JR C Brett DeLoach
- Iowa JR C Dan Sheppard
- Kansas SR C Alex DeLeon
- Kansas SR C James Stanfield
- Kentucky JR C Luke Maile
- Kentucky SR C Michael Williams
- Miami JR C Alex San Juan
- Miami SR C Peter O’Brien
- Michigan SR C Coley Crank
- Mississippi SR C Taylor Hightower
- Mississippi State JR C Mitch Slauter
- Missouri JR C Scott Sommerfeld
- Missouri SR C Ben Turner
- Nebraska JR C Richard Stock
- North Carolina SR C Jacob Stallings
- Notre Dame JR C Joe Hudson
- Oklahoma State JR C Rick Stover
- Oklahoma State JR C Victor Romero
- Oklahoma State SR C Jared Womack
- Oregon rSR C Brett Hambright
- Oregon SO C Aaron Jones
- Purdue JR C Kevin Plawecki
- South Carolina JR C Dante Rosenberg
- Southern California SR C Kevin Roundtree
- Stanford JR C Christian Griffiths
- Texas Tech JR C/INF Bo Altobelli
- Texas Tech SR C Kevin Whitehead
- UCLA JR C Tyler Heineman
- UCLA JR C Trevor Brown
- UCLA rSO C Richie Brehaut
- Utah JR C Parker Morin
- Vanderbilt rSR C Drew Fann
- Virginia JR C Chace Mitchell
- Virginia Tech rSO C Chad Morgan
- Wake Forest JR C Brett Armour
- Washington JR C Chase Anselment
- Washington SR C BK Santy
2012 MLB Draft: Big 12 Pitchers to Know
Young pitchers without great stuff who rely on pinpoint command and clever pitch sequencing who suddenly develop and, as importantly, maintain much better stuff are one of player development’s most beautiful sights to behold. That’s been Wacha’s progression to this point. His transformation from unheralded high school recruit to steady performer with good but not great stuff to his current position as major college staff ace who flashes knockout stuff that compliments his well-honed command and consistent mechanics has been a lot of fun to watch over the past few years. He’s always been a good prospect, but his improved fastball velocity and sharper breaking ball have helped make his always excellent changeup and strong fastball command even more valuable. Taylor Jungmann is a popular comp, and a good one, but he reminds me just as much as another 2011 first rounder, Matt Barnes. Either way, Wacha is a very good prospect and a first round caliber arm.
Poppe is still largely a progression pick, so take his high ranking as more of an indication of the lack of potential starting pitchers than anything else. Heaney always gets high marks for his pitchability and for good reason. Lefties who can spin a good breaking ball are always in demand. He also has a good upper-70s changeup and an above-average cutter, and he’s a lot of fun to watch pitch because of the way he varies his arm slot from pitch to pitch.
I might be the last holdout who still thinks Dicharry will be a good pro pitcher, but he’s got the pedigree, three-pitch mix, and build to start. Anderson, once thought of as the next great Missouri righthanded pitcher, is almost all the way back in his return from a torn labrum. At last check he wasn’t all the way there (heard he was hitting 90, which is very good news, but still not his pre-injury peak of 93) and his breaking ball isn’t quite what it used to be, but his changeup is still excellent, his athleticism is top notch, and his mechanics are loose and free.
Magnifico has made headlines because relievers with 100 MPH fastballs often make headlines. He’s still a little bit of a one-trick pony for me, but that one trick is a good one. If either his cutter or upper-70s change rounds into an above-average second pitch, he’s a potential big league closer. Jester, the pitcher ranked right below Magnifico, is academically ineligible in 2012, but still a viable prospect as a two-pitch reliever with great command of his mid-90s fastball and a slider with plus upside. Jester’s would-be teammates include both Martin and Stripling. Martin hasn’t received the attention I think he deserves. He’s probably a reliever in the long run, but every bullpen needs the kind of nasty sinker/slider combo guy mowing batters down in the middle innings. Stripling is similar, but swap out a plus curve for Martin’s plus slider. Finding a spot for the injured Sam Stafford was a pain in the neck. The 2011 second round pick faces an uphill battle as he recovers from shoulder surgery. Stafford, Oregon lefty Christian Jones, and Purdue RHP Brad Schreiber, all out until 2013, are particularly tough to slot in on these pre-draft follow lists.
- Texas A&M JR RHP Michael Wacha
- Kansas JR RHP Tanner Poppe
- Oklahoma State JR LHP Andrew Heaney
- Texas SR RHP Austin Dicharry
- Missouri JR RHP Eric Anderson
- Oklahoma JR RHP Damien Magnifico
- Texas A&M JR RHP Jason Jester
- Texas A&M JR RHP Kyle Martin
- Texas A&M SR RHP Ross Stripling
- Oklahoma SO RHP Jonathan Gray
- Oklahoma State JR RHP Mark Robinette
- Baylor JR RHP Max Garner
- Oklahoma State JR RHP Randy McCurry
- Texas JR RHP Josh Urban
- Texas JR LHP Hoby Milner
- Oklahoma JR LHP Steven Okert
- Texas A&M rSO RHP Parker Ray
- Texas SR LHP Sam Stafford
- Texas A&M JR LHP Ross Hales
- Oklahoma State JR RHP Chase Stevens
- Baylor JR RHP Kolt Browder
- Texas A&M JR RHP Rafael Pineda
- Oklahoma rSO LHP Jordan John
- Oklahoma State SR LHP Kyle Ottoson
- Oklahoma JR RHP Jack Mayfield
- Texas Tech rSO RHP Duke von Schamann
- Baylor JR LHP Josh Turley
- Oklahoma State SR RHP Blake Barnes
- Texas Tech rJR LHP Rusty Shellhorn
- Kansas rJR RHP Thomas Taylor
- Texas Tech JR RHP Shane Broyles
- Oklahoma JR RHP Chris Burgess
- Missouri JR LHP Blake Holovach
- Texas JR RHP Keifer Nuncio
- Missouri SR RHP Dusty Ross
- Missouri rSO LHP Jake Walsh
- Missouri rSO RHP Jeff Cline
- Texas A&M SR LHP Estevan Uriegas
- Texas Tech SR RHP John Neely
- Kansas State SR RHP Matt Applegate
- Baylor SR RHP Tyler Bremer
- Kansas State SR RHP Kayvon Bahramzadeh
- Texas Tech rSR RHP Brennan Stewart
- Texas Tech JR RHP Jamie Parten
Lucas Giolito
This is a bummer. It stinks for fans of the game, it stinks for the chief decision-makers of teams at the top of the draft (if nothing else there’s now one less potential star to push your guy down the board), it stinks for the area guys who haven’t dragged themselves to see Harvard-Westlake yet (I have a friend in this current position…yeah, he’s not great at his job), and, above all else, it stinks for Giolito.
A few more thoughts, including speculation that isn’t really front page worthy, if you click below…
2012 MLB Draft: SEC Pitchers to Know
A few names were covered last Friday, but a list like this deserves more explanation. Off the top, I need to confess that finding a way to reconcile what to do with pitchers who profile as starters (three pitches and repeatable mechanics being the first two things that need to be checked off) versus pitchers who are almost certainly confined to bullpen roles from now until eternity.
That’s a big part of what gives Selman the edge over a few safer, arguably more presently talented arms like Sanburn, Price, Gardeck, and Maddox. Selman’s bad start has me nervous, but it isn’t like he is struggling due to a lack of stuff. With Selman, you know both below-average present command and control are what has kept him from becoming a big-time prospect. For better or worse, and right now we’re seeing that worse at its worst, that’s part of the deal. Sanburn is probably the most justifiable choice as the conference’s second best pitching arm, but it kills me that Arkansas hasn’t given him the chance to start. I get where they are coming from — the Razorbacks have a loaded pitching class that will heard from early and often in each of the next three draft years — but, man, I’d love to have a better idea how Sanburn’s stuff would play across longer outings. He’s got a deep enough arsenal of pitches — fastball, change, slider, and curve — and a consistent enough delivery to transition well to the rotation in theory. Price could also start professionally, and recent rumblings have some scouts who have seen Maddox this year thinking he could be tried in a rotation in the pros. Gardeck is the only sure-fire reliever of the quartet, but the fact that the other three pitchers have questions about their long-term role causes just enough hesitation for me that I can’t put any of them over a classic starting pitching type like Selman. Of course, Selman’s inability to throw consistent strikes could keep him from ever amounting to anything, so…
I might be a little nuts to include Derrick Bleeker at all, but arm strength like his can’t be ignored. I already covered the similarities between Randall and Palazzone, so it should be no surprise to see the two so tightly bunched on the rankings. You could probably lump Godley in with those two, but I just plain like his stuff (mostly his cutter and mid-70s curve) better. From Clinard onward, the list is almost all reliever, all the time. The only potential exceptions that I see are Westmoreland, Bourgeois, Boling (if healthy, but that’s a big if), and maybe Blount. From Fant to the end, the odds of each player getting popped goes down, down, down. The ones most likely to find a home on draft day are those that excel in one particular area: Smith with his sinker, Watson with good lefty velocity, and Wallen with a sidearm delivery that makes life tough on righthanded hitters. Belcher (missed 2011 season) and Wolfe (has/will miss 2012 season) got tacked on to the end despite the fact that both has serious questions to answer about their health going forward. Belcher was also included because I’d like very much for Milwaukee to spend their 50th round pick on him this year.
- Louisiana State SO RHP Kevin Gausman
- Vanderbilt JR LHP Sam Selman
- Arkansas SO RHP Nolan Sanburn
- South Carolina rJR RHP Matt Price
- Georgia rSO LHP Alex Wood
- Kentucky JR LHP Taylor Rogers
- Alabama JR RHP Ian Gardeck
- Florida JR RHP Austin Maddox
- Mississippi State JR RHP Chris Stratton
- Arkansas JR RHP DJ Baxendale
- Florida JR LHP Steven Rodriguez
- Kentucky JR LHP Jerad Grundy
- Tennessee JR RHP Zack Godley
- Florida JR RHP Hudson Randall
- Georgia SR RHP Michael Palazzone
- Vanderbilt rJR RHP Will Clinard
- Kentucky JR RHP Chris Garrison
- Arkansas JR RHP Derrick Bleeker
- South Carolina JR RHP Ethan Carter
- Mississippi JR RHP Brett Huber
- Arkansas rJR LHP Trent Daniel
- Georgia JR RHP Tyler Maloof
- Mississippi rSR RHP RJ Hively
- Florida SR RHP Greg Larson
- South Carolina JR LHP Adam Westmoreland
- South Carolina SR LHP Michael Roth
- South Carolina JR RHP Colby Holmes
- Louisiana State JR RHP Joey Bourgeois
- Mississippi State rSO RHP Ben Bracewell
- Louisiana State JR RHP Nick Goody
- Vanderbilt JR RHP Drew Verhagen
- Georgia JR LHP Patrick Boling
- Tennessee JR RHP Nicholas Blount
- Mississippi State JR LHP Nick Routt
- Arkansas JR LHP Randall Fant
- Vanderbilt rSO LHP Keenan Kolinsky
- Auburn SR RHP Derek Varnadore
- South Carolina JR LHP Tyler Webb
- Auburn JR RHP Slade Smith
- Mississippi State rSO LHP CC Watson
- Georgia JR LHP Blake Dieterich
- Auburn SR RHP Ethan Wallen
- Mississippi JR LHP Dylan Chavez
- South Carolina SR LHP Logan Munson
- Auburn SR LHP Cory Luckie
- Mississippi State SR RHP Caleb Reed
- Arkansas JR LHP Cade Lynch
- Auburn SR RHP Jon Luke Jacobs
- Kentucky SR LHP Alex Phillips
- Alabama JR RHP Trey Pilkington
- Georgia JR RHP Bryan Benzor
- Mississippi State JR LHP Luis Pollorena
- Mississippi State JR LHP Chad Girodo
- Kentucky JR RHP Walter Wijas
- Mississippi State JR RHP Kendall Graveman
- Alabama JR RHP Tucker Hawley
- Louisiana State JR RHP Kevin Berry
- Georgia SR LHP Chase Hawkins
- South Carolina JR LHP Nolan Belcher
- Alabama JR LHP Taylor Wolfe
2012 MLB Draft: SEC Position Players of Note
Since we covered SEC pitching last week (the full list will be published tomorrow), why not start off the first full week of March with a look around college baseball’s best conference and see what kind of position player talent we can find…
Catchers
- Florida JR C Mike Zunino
- Kentucky JR C Luke Maile
- Kentucky SR C Michael Williams
- South Carolina JR C Dante Rosenberg
- Georgia JR C Brett DeLoach
- Mississippi SR C Taylor Hightower
- Vanderbilt rSR C Drew Fann
- Mississippi State JR C Mitch Slauter
Zunino is a star and as close to a sure-thing as any prospect in this year’s draft. The skeptic in me doesn’t like his K/BB numbers, but the rest of his skill set is just too damn strong to worry about the one less than thrilling component (no, I won’t count his sub-glacial speed against him) of his game. His approach could keep him from being the star that some see him as, but nothing short of a meteor striking him down in the batter’s box (you can’t see me, but rest assured I’m knocking on wood) should keep him from being an above-average everyday catcher in the big leagues. That’s tremendously valuable, but you knew that already. Senior signs like Williams, Hightower, and Fann are all known for providing above-average (or, in Hightower’s case, better than that) defense behind the plate. Williams and Hightower both have exceptional arm strength. Rosenberg is an excellent defensive catcher as well; how he performs at the plate in 2012 will determine whether or not he gets popped early enough to sign in June or if he’ll suffer the same fate as Williams, Hightower, and Fann (seniors rule!). I’m most intrigued by the pair of players who may or may not stick behind the plate long-term. I think both Maile and DeLoach can catch professionally (ah, so that’s why they are included with the catchers!), but I understand the concerns on both. Maile has the tools, frame, and athleticism to catch, but lacks proper experience. DeLoach offers similar strengths, but his future defensive home might come down to matters of health. If his arm is sound, he should catch. If not, he’ll face the steep uphill battle of trying to hit enough to hold down a spot in either left field or first base. Maile’s bat has more of a chance of playing elsewhere due to his prodigious raw power.
Who Gets Drafted? Zunino, Maile (though perhaps not as a catcher), Williams, and Hightower. The juniors are all squarely on the bubble, but probably more likely to wind up as senior signs than juniors drafted early enough to leave school.
First Basemen
- Florida JR 1B Brian Johnson
- South Carolina JR 1B Christian Walker
- Florida SR 1B Preston Tucker
- Florida JR 1B Vickash Ramjit
- Mississippi SR 1B Matt Snyder
- South Carolina rSO 1B Brison Celek
- Arkansas SR 1B Sam Bates
- Louisiana State JR 1B Alex Edward
- Louisiana State SR 1B Grant Dozar
- Tennessee SR 1B Davis Morgan
I tend to err on the side of “pitch first, hit second,” but Brian Johnson is a better position player prospect for me right now so that’s where he sits. I believe in the power enough that I think his bat could be enough to hold down an everyday job at first in the big leagues someday. Check a first base minor league prospect ranking to see how rare that is these days. Walker is the only other player on the list with a realistic chance to play every day, but even that’s a stretch. That’s no slight against Walker, a really gifted natural hitter with solid power potential and a good approach, but rather yet another example of how difficult it is to seize one of the thirty MLB first base starting positions. The next few names all profile nicely as potential bench bats or, in an ideal world, platoon players. Tucker has been a long-time favorite who just keeps hitting, hitting, and hitting. A little bit of positional versatility shown at the college level has helped his stock just enough that some teams might view him as a viable spot starter in the outfield. Ramjit, the third Gator in this particular top four, might have the most untapped upside of the remaining players. He has the size, athleticism, and power upside to surprise people by playing better as a professional than he ever did in the Swamp.
Who Gets Drafted? Johnson, Walker, and Tucker are all locks to be drafted. Both Johnson and Walker will likely be off the board within the draft’s first three to five rounds. I could see Ramjit wanting to return for a shot at more playing time and a better draft standing in 2013. The rest of the seniors, with Snyder and Bates leading the way, are all legitimate mid-round depth selections for teams looking to round out their low minor league lineups.
Second Basemen
- Mississippi JR 2B Alex Yarbrough
- Georgia SR 2B Levi Hyams
- Louisiana State SR 2B Tyler Hanover
- Vanderbilt SR 2B Riley Reynolds
- Arkansas SR 2B Bo Bigham
- South Carolina JR 2B Chase Vergason
- Louisiana State JR 2B Casey Yocom
As expected for a position where players are more often created than born, second base is thin in the SEC. Yarbrough has a strong hit tool and above-average speed, but he’s not a lock to stay up the middle defensively. Hyams and Hanover both do enough well to profile as potential utility infielders. If you’re feeling generous, you could probably say the same for fellow potential senior signs Reynolds and Bigham. I originally had Arkansas 2B Kenny Roberts on the list, but didn’t see his name on the Razorbacks roster last I checked.
Who Gets Drafted? Because teams need players capable of holding down middle infield spots, I could see Yarbrough and the four seniors all getting drafted at some point this June. Vergason’s slow start could cost him as younger players (and better long-term prospects) begin to eat into his playing time.
Shortstops
- Florida JR SS Nolan Fontana
- Georgia JR SS Kyle Farmer
- Louisiana State SR SS Austin Nola
- Tennessee SR SS Zach Osborne
- Vanderbilt JR SS Anthony Gomez
- Florida JR SS Cody Dent
- Mississippi SR SS Blake Newalu
- Alabama SR SS Jared Reaves
- Arkansas rSR SS Tim Carver
Fontana won’t go in the top five this year, but I’m pretty sure I like him as much as the player he was often compared to out of high school, Christian Colon. Zunino’s floor is arguably higher than any prospect’s in the country, but Fontana’s isn’t so bad either. He consistently catches the ball, gets on base, and has just enough pop to keep pitchers honest. He might never hit higher than 8th in a lineup (9th if he lands with the Cardinals…yes, I know that joke makes no sense now that LaRussa is gone, but that hasn’t stopped me before), but the fact that he’ll hit in a lineup at all is promising. Farmer, Nola, and Osborne all play good enough defense to make some noise as potential top ten round players this draft. Of the three, Farmer is the only one with an honest shot to make it as a regular. I wish I knew more about Jared Reaves because his 2011 park/schedule adjusted numbers (.369/.434/.535 – 25 BB/30 K – 241 AB) are intriguing.
Who Gets Drafted? Absolutely Fontana, and almost certainly Farmer and Nola. Osborne and Gomez have better than average shots to be drafted. Dent has just enough in the way of tools, not to mention the bloodlines that teams love, to warrant consideration, but his performances haven’t exactly lit the world on fire and he might be stretched defensively at short. Carver is a damn fine college player who hasn’t hit enough to justify a draft pick, at least not yet.
Third Basemen
- Arkansas JR 3B Matt Reynolds
- Georgia SR 3B Colby May
- Kentucky SR 3B Thomas McCarthy
- Auburn SR 3B Creede Simpson
- Mississippi JR 3B Andrew Mistone
- South Carolina JR 3B LB Dantzler
- Alabama JR 3B Brett Booth
- Georgia JR 3B Curt Powell
The only thing keeping Matt Reynolds from being a slam dunk first day pick is a lack of raw power. As a pure hitter he compares favorably to former Razorbacks third basemen Logan Forsythe and Zack Cox, and his power upside likely falls somewhere between the two. The rest of his tools work just fine: his defense at third is excellent, his arm and speed are both above-average, and his athleticism is so good that some pro teams think he’ll be just fine playing second base or even catcher at the next level. From a tools-only standpoint, there are some blurry comparisons to the Virginia version of Ryan Zimmerman. A reality check reveals that Reynolds was a park/schedule adjusted .238 hitter last year, so…
Who Gets Drafted? Reynolds, for sure, with May (SS and 1B), Simpson (OF), Mistone (2B), and Booth (C) all in the mix as potential super-subs professionally.
Outfielders
- Vanderbilt JR OF Connor Harrell
- Louisiana State JR OF Raph Rhymes
- Tennessee JR OF Drew Steckenrider
- Alabama SR OF Taylor Dugas
- Vanderbilt JR OF Michael Yastrzemski
- Louisiana State JR OF Mason Katz
- South Carolina JR OF Evan Marzilli
- Arkansas JR OF Matt Vinson
- Louisiana State JR OF Arby Fields
- Georgia SR OF Peter Verdin
- Mississippi SR OF Zach Kirksey
- Mississippi JR OF Tanner Mathis
- South Carolina SR OF Adam Matthews
- Kentucky JR OF Brian Adams
- Arkansas rSO OF Jacob Morris
- Florida SR OF Tyler Thompson
- Florida SR OF Daniel Pigott
- Alabama JR OF Cameron Carlisle
- Vanderbilt rJR OF Jack Lupo
- Georgia JR OF Kevin Ruiz
- Auburn JR OF Cullen Wacker
- Alabama JR OF Andrew Miller
- Tennessee JR OF Chris Fritts
- Mississippi State SR OF Brent Brownlee
- Alabama SR OF Jon Kelton
The SEC is littered with outfielders with big-time tools and below-average production. Steckenrider, Marzilli, Vinson, Verdin, and Kirksey all have tools that have outpaced their collegiate performances thus far. On the opposite end of the spectrum, there are grinders like Dugas and Yastrzemski who play above their modest tools. Rhymes doesn’t quite fit either group, but he’s such a gifted natural hitter that he deserves far more recognition than he gets; for me, there isn’t a ton separating him from the much better known Jeremy Baltz. The aforementioned Steckenrider is more or less the Brian Johnson of SEC outfielders. Both men are universally regarded as superior on the mound, but each has so much raw power at the plate that there is at least some question about their long-term baseball homes.
Who Gets Drafted? I’m inclined to say everybody from Harrell to Pigott, but even I know that’s probably more names than what we’ll really hear in June. I sent a quick draft of this to somebody in the know who didn’t particularly care for the order (“Rhymes second is crazy, Steckenrider is a reliever, and you need to knock off the cheerleading for Dugas”) who wanted me to also explicitly pass along that I’m crazy for having Morris where he is. He said, “Morris has the talent to be much closer to the top than his current standing near the bottom.”
SEC 2012 MLB Draft Pitching Potpourri
Kicking off the weekend with a little bit of stream of consciousness writing about the SEC, its players, and the 2012 MLB Draft. Despite being born and raised in Big East country (and the Atlantic 10 principality), I was a long-time loyalist of ACC baseball. Access to plenty of games while spending my late teenage summers running around the The Triangle down in North Carolina gave me the chance to see some really exciting players before they were known as prospects, if you catch my drift. Though come to think of it, many of the guys with “star” upside didn’t really make it. Still holding out hope for Andrew Miller, but I think that’s due mostly to the memory of his UNC era Blake Anderson mustache. My college years allowed me time to freeze my butt off (not literally, I still do in fact have a butt) while watching the best and the brightest pass through Boston College’s dual-purpose ballpark/parking lot (or, better yet, ballparking lot) to say nothing of that memorable day I saw the CAA’s finest prospect, Northeastern’s ace and the man who would become the school’s first ever big league pitcher Adam Ottavino, throw a no-hitter against a solid James Madison lineup. Ah, college. Such wild and crazy times.
Long story short, I’m now a full-fledged SEC homer. You can thank me having a brother in Nashville and the subsequent possibility of many Vanderbilt games in my future for the change in allegiance. See how easy I can be bought and sold? Special attention will be paid to the SEC this year due simply to the fact that I’ll likely be seeing more players from that conference than any other. After a few years of squeezing rocks to make milk (I swear this reference makes sense: it’s from a fable I was read in my youth, but Google seems to think I’m making it up) by watching Villanova play up (Connecticut, Louisville, Notre Dame!) and down (Georgetown, Seton Hall, and, even though I know they can’t technically play themselves, Villanova!) competition, I’m ready to enjoy getting the opportunity to see a slew of interesting games against my new “hometown” team. Of course, life would be a lot easier (and cost-effective) if only Penn, a pretty darn good looking club from both the competitive college team and draftable prospect standpoints, had a more interesting home conference schedule in 2012. Then I could enjoy good baseball within minutes of my apartment (cost of the walk: $0.00) instead of being forced to fly south every other weekend (cost of the flight: don’t even want to think about it), but what can you do, right? Maybe in 2013 when hopefully Princeton (Mike Fagan, maybe Matt Bowman), Harvard, and Dartmouth (Mitch Horacek, maybe Kyle Hunter) come to town. Then I’ll swap allegiances once again and become the world’s loudest and proudest Ivy League baseball backer.
So, where were we? SEC baseball and the 2012 MLB Draft? Ah, of course. Some general impressions on the state of the conference’s pitching as we fire up weekend number three of the college baseball season…
*** LSU SO RHP Kevin Gausman is pretty clearly at the top of the conference’s draft pitching pecking order, but who is number two? I’ve done the homework, talked to some smart people, read as much as a human can read, and watched whenever possible and I still don’t have a clue. I went into all this thinking fellow SO RHP Nolan Sanburn (Arkansas) would be the consensus pick, but of the four well-connected people I talked to, only one had him at the number two spot with any confidence. Of course, these people thought I was wasting my time trying to rank players within a conference (“What’s the big idea? You know players from every conference are eligible on draft day, right?”), but that’s besides the point. South Carolina rJR RHP Matt Price (battle-tested with big league stuff) got a vote, as did Vanderbilt JR LHP Sam Selman (upside) and, curiously enough, Florida JR RHP Hudson Randall (battle-tested without definite big league stuff). After careful consideration, I’m leaning a different way altogether. I reserve the right to change my mind (i.e. come to my senses) after one last weekend of thinking it all over, so check back in next week to see who is number two.
*** Speaking of Hudson Randall, is there really anything that separates him from a guy like, say, Georgia SR RHP Michael Palazzone? They both live in the upper-80s with their fastballs, both lean heavily on two-seamers, both have average-ish breaking balls (though in Randall’s case he has two), and both rely on precise command in the absence of dazzling raw stuff. Statistically, both had outstanding 2011 seasons, at least when looked at superficially. Randall went 11-3 with an ERA of 2.17 ERA while Palazzone went 10-5 with a 3.14 ERA. Not bad, right? And similar enough, yes? Digging a bit deeper reveals some questionable peripherals as well as starker similarities between the two. Randall’s K/9 in 124.1 IP: 5.65. Palazzone’s K/9 in 120.1 IP? 6.36. Their park/schedule adjusted FIP’s were nearly identical: Randall at 4.43 and Palazzone at 4.47. What does it all mean? Honestly, not a whole lot. I just think it is funny that Randall, a much bigger name in college baseball due in large part to his awesome production on some great Gators teams, is ranked by many as a far superior prospect to Palazzone, at one time a really well-regarded arm in his own right.
*** There are a lot of relievers primed to make an impact out of the SEC in this year’s draft. Some of the bigger names include the aforementioned Sanburn (whom I’m not convinced can’t start professionally, but we’ll see), Alabama JR RHP Ian Gardeck, Florida JR RHP Austin Maddox, Maddox’s teammate JR LHP Steven Rodriguez. It is also possible, or in some cases likely, that guys like Price, Selman, and Kentucky JR LHP Jerad Grundy wind up in the bullpen at the next level. My crystal ball is in the shop, but if I had to guess I’d say that Gausman looks like the only slam dunk guarantee to remain a starting pitcher in pro ball two or three years down the line.
*** I’m pretty sure I like Florida JR LHP/1B Brian Johnson more as a hitter than a pitcher. I’ve isolated myself somewhat from the experts so far this year — that will change soon because, quite frankly, reading Baseball America is too enjoyable to quit in the name of wanting to remain unsullied by industry approved opinions — so I’m out of the loop on what people think about his pro future. His performance in 2012 will go a long way in determining his future one way or another (there’s your obvious statement of the day…hope you enjoyed it), so this is a situation worth monitoring.
*** A few quick hits to wrap this up:
1) In a battle of two pitchers with similar stuff, I prefer Mississippi State JR RHP Chris Stratton to Arkansas JR RHP DJ Baxendale, though it is close. Again, I’m out of the loop here with what people are saying: is Stratton on the national draft radar or would he qualify as a sleeper? I never know what a “sleeper” is anymore. Whenever I see likely top three round prospects touted as sleepers, I die a little inside.
2) I’ll never be able to quit on long-time favorite South Carolina JR RHP Ethan Carter. It has been hard keeping up with him over the years (high school hot shot to surprise enrollee at South Carolina to sudden transfer to Louisburg JC to even bigger surprise reentry to South Carolina), but he’s too talented to ever really lose sight of. Great to see he’s off to a dominating start (9 K and only 3 base runners allowed in 8.1 scoreless innings) out of the Gamecocks pen so far.
3) The talent is really spread out on the pitching side in the SEC. My initial ranking of the top seven 2012 arms from the conference features pitchers from seven different schools. Expand the list to eleven names and then you’re up to nine different teams represented. Ten different teams have players in the top thirteen. Sorry, Mississippi and Auburn. I take it back: no apology needed for Ole Miss. Auburn, sure, we can apologize to Auburn. But Mississippi’s 2013 and 2014 draft class talent looks potentially devastating at this point. Alright, once we start talking about a draft 27 months away then we know it is time to stop rambling. Enjoy the games this weekend, everybody.
Early 2012 MLB Draft Rankings: Big East Pitchers and Hitters
More lists! More rankings! That’s the bad news. The good news is I’m finally totally 100% done all of my prep work on this year’s college class. Lists have allowed me to buy some time while I sorted through all of the old notes I had, but now I’m ready for something bigger and (hopefully!) better. Henceforth, content will not be all lists all the time. Sure, there will still be lists from time to time, but the stream of never-ending lists without commentary is over.
The Big East is short on hitting and relatively deep on pitching. If, say, 40 players were drafted from the conference this summer (a very, very generous number), then I wouldn’t be shocked if the breakdown was close to 30 pitchers to 10 hitters. As mentioned, however, the depth of the pitching class is relative to the overall weakness of the conference (note: I’m talking prospects only, not quality of college play). It is extremely possible that there won’t be a single big league starting pitching prospect to come out of the Big East in 2012.
It’s also probably worth mentioning that one of the conference’s best prospects no longer actually plays in the conference. Louisburg JC SO 3B Steve Nyisztor, formerly of Rutgers, would be a slam dunk top three position player on the ranking if he had remained in the Big East. He has all the defensive tools to eventually succeed at third base, and his power upside, athleticism, and speed are all average or better. I worry a little about his pitch recognition and overly aggressive approach, but the raw tools are intriguing. So far at Louisburg, he’s hitting .400 with 4 homers and 4 doubles in 55 at bats. There’s been some inconsistency in the field (12 errors in 14 games, yikes), but that is no cause for alarm considering he’s playing at a spot (shortstop) he almost certainly won’t see as a pro. I’d probably slot him between Mazzilli and Baltz in the number two spot, but I’d understand an argument for him either above or behind both guys.
Pitchers
- St. John’s JR RHP Kyle Hansen
- St. John’s JR RHP Matt Carasiti
- Louisville JR RHP Matt Koch
- Louisville JR RHP Justin Amlung
- Louisville JR RHP Andy Flett
- Rutgers rSO RHP Charlie Law
- Seton Hall JR RHP Ryan Harvey
- St. John’s JR RHP Jerome Werniuk
- St. John’s JR RHP Anthony Cervone
- Cincinnati JR RHP Zach Isler
- Seton Hall JR RHP Frank Morris
- South Florida SR LHP Andrew Barbosa
- Connecticut SR RHP David Fischer
- Rutgers JR LHP Rob Smorol
- Louisville SR RHP Travis Tingle
- Louisville SO RHP Chad Green
- South Florida rSO RHP Austin Adams
- South Florida rSR RHP Derrick Stultz
- Connecticut JR RHP/OF Ryan Moore
- Louisville SR RHP Derek Self
- South Florida rSO RHP Ray Delphey
- Connecticut SR RHP Scott Oberg
- South Florida JR RHP Joe Lovecchio
- Connecticut JR RHP Pat Butler
- Notre Dame SR LHP Joe Spano
- St. John’s JR LHP Sean Hagan
- Rutgers JR LHP Rob Corsi
- Rutgers RHP Tyler Gebler
- St. John’s SR RHP Kevin Kilpatrick
- Notre Dame JR RHP Pat Veerkamp
Hitters
- Connecticut JR 2B LJ Mazzilli
- St. John’s JR OF Jeremy Baltz
- St. John’s rSO OF Kevin Grove
- St. John’s SR 2B/SS Matt Wessinger
- Connecticut SR 3B Ryan Fuller
- Louisville JR 1B/LHP Zak Wasserman
- Georgetown SR OF Rand Ravnaas
- South Florida SR 1B/OF Todd Brazeal
- Connecticut rJR OF Billy Ferriter
- Louisville SR OF Stewart Ijames
- West Virginia JR OF Brady Wilson
- Cincinnati SR 2B TJ Jones
- South Florida rJR OF Alex Mendez
- West Virginia rSR 3B Dan DiBartolomeo
- Notre Dame JR C Joe Hudson
- Cincinnati JR OF Jake Proctor
- Connecticut rSR C Joe Pavone
- Connecticut SR 3B Tim Martin
- Cincinnati SR C/OF Braden Kline
- West Virginia rSO OF Matt Frazer
2012 MLB Draft: Who Will Be Drafted? Big East Edition
The Big East had 40 players drafted in last year’s draft. Don’t be thrown off by the incorrect headline (“BIG EAST Sets Record with 41 Players Taken in MLB First-Year Player Draft”) like I was. I counted, and it’s definitely 40. It will be an uphill battle to reach that number in 2012. Below are 35 names that I’m feeling fairly confident will be in the mix this June. Don’t think there are any super controversial names on the list, but flame away if there is anybody you think should be there that isn’t or shouldn’t be there that is.
Catchers
Notre Dame JR C Joe Hudson
Connecticut rSR C Joe Pavone
First Basemen
South Florida SR 1B/OF Todd Brazeal
Second Basemen
Connecticut JR 2B LJ Mazzilli
St. John’s SR 2B/SS Matt Wessinger
Shortstops
Maybe in 2013…
Third Basemen
Connecticut SR 3B Ryan Fuller
Outfielders
St. John’s JR OF Jeremy Baltz
St. John’s rSO OF Kevin Grove
Georgetown SR OF Rand Ravnaas
Connecticut rJR OF Billy Ferriter
Louisville SR OF Stewart Ijames
West Virginia JR OF Brady Wilson
Pitchers
St. John’s JR RHP Kyle Hansen
St. John’s JR RHP Matt Carasiti
Louisville JR RHP Matt Koch
Louisville JR RHP Justin Amlung
Louisville JR RHP Andy Flett
Rutgers rSO RHP Charlie Law
Seton Hall JR RHP Ryan Harvey
St. John’s JR RHP Jerome Werniuk
St. John’s JR RHP Anthony Cervone
Cincinnati JR RHP Zach Isler
Seton Hall JR RHP Frank Morris
Connecticut SR RHP David Fischer
Rutgers JR LHP Rob Smorol
Louisville SR RHP Travis Tingle
South Florida SR LHP Andrew Barbosa
Louisville SO RHP Chad Green
Connecticut JR RHP Ryan Moore
Louisville SR RHP Derek Self
South Florida rSO RHP Ray Delphey
Connecticut SR RHP Scott Oberg
South Florida rSR RHP Derrick Stultz
South Florida rSO RHP Austin Adams
South Florida JR RHP Joe Lovecchio
And here are some other names (17 to be exact) to stored away somewhere deep in the recesses of your baseball loving brains…
Catchers
Cincinnati SR C/OF Braden Kline
First Basemen
Louisville JR 1B/LHP Zak Wasserman
Second Basemen
Cincinnati SR 2B TJ Jones
Shortstops
Villanova SR SS Marlon Calbi
Third Basemen
West Virginia rSR 3B Dan DiBartolomeo
Outfielders
South Florida rJR OF Alex Mendez
Cincinnati JR OF Jake Proctor
West Virginia rSO OF Matt Frazer
Pitchers
Notre Dame SR LHP Joe Spano
Rutgers JR LHP Rob Corsi
Connecticut JR RHP Pat Butler
Rutgers RHP Tyler Gebler
St. John’s SR RHP Kevin Kilpatrick
Notre Dame SR LHP Steve Sabatino
Notre Dame JR RHP Pat Veerkamp
St. John’s JR LHP Sean Hagan
Seton Hall JR RHP Jon Prosinski
2012 MLB Draft All-Big East Prospect Team
The best prospect at each position is featured in our “everyday eight.” The “starting rotation” is made up of pitchers who are all lumped together in one bit lefty/righty/starter/reliever mess. For the “bench,” we tried to follow the guideline of at least one backup catcher, a backup middle infielder (or two), a backup corner infielder (or two), and at least one reserve outfielder (though typically two). Remaining spots went to the best available pitching prospects who are no doubt thrilled to be a part of our “bullpen.” Add it all up and we should have a 25-man roster of interesting 2012 MLB Draft Prospects from the Big East.
Everyday Eight
Notre Dame JR C Joe Hudson
Hudson gets the slightest of edge over the similarly talented C Joe Pavone (Connecticut). I admit that the fifth-year senior Pavone might be the safer bet to be drafted based while Hudson will likely wind up as a 2013 senior sign assuming his bat didn’t transform over this past offseason. Both players profile as defensive-first organizational catchers. These are the types of prospects that you draft knowing that you need somebody capable of helping along young pitching prospects. Deep down, however, there is no shame in hoping that your late-round defensive-first catcher might show enough pop to someday pop up as a viable third catcher worth stashing in AAA.
Louisville JR 1B Zak Wasserman
Wasserman hasn’t done much at Louisville yet (after park/schedule adjustments, he barely slugged his weight in 2011), but his big raw power and pro frame make him the best of an uninspiring group of Big East power hitters.
Connecticut JR 2B LJ Mazzilli
Spoiler alert: Mazzilli isn’t just the best Big East second base prospect, but the best overall position player prospect in the entire conference. His speed, athleticism, and defense all have stood out as I’ve watched him grow in a big way as a hitter over the past two seasons.
Villanova SR SS Marlon Calbi
There’s simply nothing in the way of interesting Big East shortstop prospects this year. Calbi’s strong 2011 season gives him the nod, but he’s really not a viable pro prospect at this point. I debated on cheating and putting St. John’s SR 2B Matt Wessinger at shortstop, where he’s played some in the past, but left him on the bench in favor of the truer shortstop in Calbi.
Connecticut SR 3B Ryan Fuller
Like the man chosen to stand to his left on this fictional team of 2012 prospects, Fuller isn’t a pro prospect in any traditional sense of the term. He does stand a better chance to be drafted due in large part to his athleticism and just enough pop and speed to intrigue as a fill out the roster kind of late round pick.
St. John’s JR OF Jeremy Baltz
St. John’s rSO OF Kevin Grove
Georgetown SR OF Rand Ravnaas
Much has been written about Baltz by the experts already, so I’ll keep it short and sweet. As a corner outfield prospect with little in the way of tools besides his bat, he’ll need to hit a ton as a pro if he ever wants a shot at regular playing time. It is probably worth nothing that I was impressed last year (in an admittedly quick viewing) with his non-hit tools, so much so that I came away thinking he’s universally underrated both as an athlete and as a defender in left. That’s not to say anything but the bat will ever get him in the lineup, and I would never say he’s good at anything but hitting baseballs, but he’s not a total slug out there, either. Grove is under the radar as a redshirt sophomore who has legit pro power and enough ability in a few other areas (average runner, strong enough arm) that he could develop into an interesting draft with more at bats. Ravnaas is more solid college outfielder than intriguing pro prospect, but his skill set is well-rounded and his production has been consistently strong. A more refined approach, especially with two strikes, might be too much to ask at this point for the senior, but a little less aggression (or, more aptly, better controlled aggression) would go a long way.
Bench
Connecticut rSR C Joe Pavone
The aforementioned Pavone gets a spot on the bench as the Big East’s second best catching prospect thanks to his steady defensive work behind the plate.
South Florida SR 1B/OF Todd Brazeal
Brazeal, an eighth-year senior for the Bulls, has always intrigued with the hit tool, but has never been able to reign in his long swing enough to make consistent enough contact to succeed. Positional versatility (1B, OF, and 3B are all on his resume) could get him drafted, as could his well-earned reputation of being a great teammate and hard worker. Never hurts to fill out low minors rosters with guys like Brazeal.
St. John’s SR 2B/SS Matt Wessinger
Wessinger is a nice college infielder who does enough well across the board to get a look by pro teams in the market for a mid- to late-round senior sign. He’s more second baseman than shortstop, but can handle the left side of the infield well enough in a pinch to profile as a utility guy in a perfect world.
West Virginia rSR 3B Dan DiBartolomeo
DiBartolomeo is another highly productive player who feels like he’s been in college for the better part of a decade now. He fits in nicely on a roster full of high makeup, grinder college players who don’t necessarily project for much in the pros. Still a fun player to watch, though.
Connecticut rJR OF Billy Ferriter
Louisville SR OF/LHP Stewart Ijames
Ferriter and Ijames: two long-time favorites that I’m very close to admitting defeat on. Ferriter can run, defend, and handle the bat, but will need to clean up his approach in a big way if he hopes to make it in pro ball. Ijames has been my guy going on three years now; unfortunately, it is time to face the music and admit he’s more of a college standout than a pro prospect. I’ll always appreciate his solid approach, strong arm, and power to the gaps, but if it hasn’t all come together by now, I’m not sure it ever will. Even if Ijames puts together a big final season for the Cardinals and gets drafted higher than I think this June, he’ll still face the daunting challenge of being one of the few players — I can think of none off the top of my head — that have turned 24 during their first pro season and then went on to big league success.
Starting Rotation
St. John’s JR RHP Kyle Hansen
St. John’s JR RHP Matt Carasiti
Louisville JR RHP Matt Koch
Louisville JR RHP Justin Amlung
Louisville JR RHP Andy Flett
The Big East is deep in pitching, but lacks the type of early round impact talent that tends to get a conference noticed early on in the season. The depth of talent will change that as the season moves along. Heading up our rotation is the big righthander from St. John’s, Kyle Hansen. Hansen has the three pitches needed to start professionally (low-90s FB that peaks at 94-96, a consistently average low-80s SL that flashes plus, especially when thrown harder, and a raw low-80s CU that has gotten much better since his high school days) and should get the chance to do exactly that, despite what some have said about his delivery being better suited for the bullpen. His teammate Carasiti joins him in our “rotation,” but there is little doubt his pro future is as a reliever. He’s got the heavy hard fastball, good upper-70s slider, and emerging splitter to profile as a fine middle reliever in the big leagues.
The two St. John’s pitchers are joined by our trio of Cardinals. Matt Koch is another reliever all the way. He has similar stuff when compared to Carasiti (arguably a better fastball, though I prefer Carasiti’s slightly slower but more difficult to square up offering), but loses out due to a slightly less exciting overall repertoire (Koch is FB/SL all the way) and less flashes of collegiate dominance. Amlung’s on the border between starter and reliever. He throws four pitches for strikes, but might be best off if he streamlined his arsenal and stuck with his two best pitches, a good sinking fastball and a tight low-80s slider. Flett is a personal favorite who succeeds in large part due to superior fastball command and a good mid-70s curveball. There’s still some projection left in his 6-7, 185 pound frame, so envisioning a future where his low-90s fastball (mostly 90-93) picks up a few ticks isn’t exactly out of line.
My only regret here is leaving off the slew of interesting pitchers for South Florida. Seriously, any one of just about any arm on their staff could have been included. Andrew Barbosa, Ray Delphey, Derrick Stulz, Austin Adams, Trey Dahl (who I recently noticed was no longer listed on the 2012 roster), and Joe Lovecchio are all firmly in the mix to be drafted in 2012, but I’m in a little bit of a continued wait and see mode due to many of their arms having questionable health backgrounds heading into this year. So far, so good for many of the hurlers, both in terms of good health and production. The combined numbers of Stultz, Adams, Delphey, and Lovecchio so far (3-0 record): 24 IP 28 K 10 BB 19 H 3 ER.
The Bullpen
Rutgers rSO RHP Charlie Law
Seton Hall JR RHP Ryan Harvey
St. John’s JR RHP Jerome Werniuk
St. John’s JR RHP Anthony Cervone
Cincinnati JR RHP Zach Isler
Seton Hall JR RHP Frank Morris
St. John’s is heavily represented in both the rotation and the bullpen on this squad. Charlie Law has been on the radar long enough that it is hard to call him a sleeper, but injuries and erratic command have some forgetting about how solid his three-pitch mix is when on. Werniuk is somewhat similar as another bigger guy (6-5, 210 pounds to Law’s 6-7, 235) with a history of trouble throwing strikes. You could say the same thing about Cervone, come to think of it. Ryan Harvey’s big 2011 season (park/schedule adjusted 15.11 K/9 in 44.2 IP) was more impressive than his raw stuff (upper-80s fastball, plus slider) indicates, but, as you can read, it isn’t like his stuff is bad. His teammate Frank Morris joins him as an athletic projection peak capable of hitting 93-94 with his fastball. Finally, we have Cincinnati’s Zach Isler. Isler is the kind of guy the bullpens were designed for. His stuff isn’t particularly exciting when stretched out over longer appearances, but in short bursts he can let it fly with a fastball hitting 94-95 and an above-average low-80s slider.
Opening Weekend 2012
There are already so many well-connected, smart people out there who cover college ball as well as it can conceivably be covered (seriously, just go here and read everything by Aaron Fitt) that I’m not sure how interesting my own insights as an outsider hanging out on the fringe can possibly be. I’m also not a huge fan of moving players’ draft stocks up or down based on three games worth of data, so breaking down the ins and outs of the weekend that was doesn’t hold a ton of value to me. The thought of totally ignoring college baseball’s opening weekend made me guilty, so here are a few stray observations that came to me while shaving last night:
(Quick scheduling note: the week ahead will be more rankings by conference as we get closer to putting together position-by-position follow lists and the first big board of 2012. Just a heads up for those who like to plan ahead.)
*** I don’t think Mark Appel finishes the year atop the majority of team’s draft boards. In fact, I don’t think Appel will be the first college pitcher selected in June. (Because a few emailed and asked: leader of the pack right for me is San Francisco RHP Kyle Zimmer, a legit dark horse candidate to go 1-1). To take it a step further, I’m actually starting to get a little bit of a Kris Benson vibe when it comes to the Stanford righthander. All that negativity after a pretty damn good start from Appel, too. What kind of comments will the peanut gallery (I’m including myself in said gallery, just to be clear) make if he actually pitches poorly this year?
*** One quick lesson from opening weekend: transitioning college relievers to the rotation is often easier said than done. In Marcus Stroman’s case, there’s no need to worry. He’s a pro reliever moonlighting as a Friday starter to help his college team. There’s also no need to worry across the board since overreacting to one start isn’t wise. However, for a pitcher right on the bubble between starting and relieving like Virginia RHP Branden Kline, Friday night’s start wasn’t one for the old pro resume.
*** I’m not ashamed to highlight the play of long-time favorite Central Florida JR OF Ronnie Richardson. Richardson only went 1 for 8 over the weekend, but still managed a .500 OBP thanks to 6 BB and 1 HBP. Outstanding defense, great speed, loads of arm strength, and a patient approach at the plate make him an intriguing big league backup outfield candidate down the line.
*** I love driving in the city. Switching lanes, avoiding pedestrians, and parallel parking, all while watching out for cops? I was born to do it. Florida SR 1B Preston Tucker, on the other hand, was born to hit. Three extra base hits on opening weekend for the 2012 priority senior sign highlight the point.
*** Tucker’s teammate JR RHP/1B Austin Maddox’s transformation from hitter to pitcher gets a little bit more assured with every passing appearance on the mound. I hate losing his plus raw power as a hitter, but shutdown appearances like Maddox’s four-inning save (three strikeouts) help cushion the blow. Maddox’s mid-90s heat and much improved 81-84 slider make him a potential late inning option worth watching. If nothing else, we’ll all be spared the “can he stick behind the plate?” debate that has driven me crazy over the past few years with Jesus Montero. (NOTE: Yes, I realize nobody else thinks Maddox should ever be tried behind the plate again, but if I was dead-set on drafting him and making him a hitter full-time, he’d be donning the tools of ignorance six days a week in Short-Season ball by mid-June. I’d rank my position preference for him as RHP/C/1B/3B as of now, if you’re wondering.)
*** Another Gator, JR C Mike Zunino couldn’t match Tucker’s power, but I’m sure he got the last laugh by doing the unexpected and swiping his first, and potentially only, base of the year. Who said the likely top-fifteen pick isn’t a five-tool player?
*** Fellow backstop Purdue JR C Kevin Plawecki also showed off his wheels this weekend by not only matching Zunino’s stolen base but doing him one better by legging out a triple. I’m looking forward to seeing how high Plawecki can get on the 2012 college catching rankings, so much so that I think I’ll rank the catchers first.
*** Arkansas JR 3B Matt Reynolds reached base 11 out of 13 times this weekend. That’s really, really good. I think I did that over the course of one week back in Little League, but the majority of my “hits” were misplays by the shortstop and bunt singles. Reynolds’ prospect stock is held back a bit by his lack of raw power, but he’s a line drive machine and a great athlete capable of playing multiple defensive spots really well. I’d hope/assume he gets the chance to settle in at third as a pro, but a team might prefer him at second or even behind the plate.
*** Texas Tech JR OF Barrett Barnes went 7 for 16 with two extra base hits and two stolen bases in four games over the weekend. It’s no getting on base 11 out of 13 times, but it is still really good. More importantly, Barnes showed off the power/speed mix that has scouts excited about his future. Something about guys who can swing the bat, run, and cover ground up the middle that gets baseball types interested. Imagine that.
Early 2012 MLB Draft Rankings: ACC Pitchers and Hitters
Our whirlwind tour of the ACC is just about over. Below are the conference’s top 50 pitching prospects for the 2012 MLB Draft. Below that is the list of the top 50 hitting prospects for the 2012 MLB Draft. I have notes on literally every guy on the list (and dozens more who didn’t make the cut), so feel free to scream at me in the comments or via email. If you do that, we can get into the “how’s” and “why’s” of this particular list’s genesis. That’s why making lists and rankings is hard work. Doing everything that goes into a ranking take so much time and effort that once the list is finalized and I’m proud of what I’ve done, the thought of writing out the rationale on top of everything seems like overkill. But the reader is stuck with only a list, which, if we’re being totally honest, doesn’t add a whole lot of value to the draft conversation. All the fun baseball stuff gets lost along the way. I suppose that’s just the long way of saying, yes, I’d love to add commentary now, but, hey, it’s opening day! Time to watch some real live college baseball for the first time in way too long. Until the games start, enjoy more lists!
Pitchers
- Duke JR RHP Marcus Stroman
- Georgia Tech JR RHP Buck Farmer
- North Carolina JR RHP Michael Morin
- Virginia JR RHP Branden Kline
- Clemson JR RHP Kevin Brady
- Clemson JR RHP Dominic Leone
- Clemson JR RHP Scott Firth
- Miami JR RHP EJ Encinosa
- Georgia Tech JR RHP Luke Bard
- North Carolina JR LHP RC Orlan
- Miami JR RHP Eric Whaley
- Virginia Tech JR RHP Patrick Scoggin
- Wake Forest JR LHP Tim Cooney
- Miami JR LHP Steven Ewing
- Virginia SR LHP Scott Silverstein
- North Carolina JR RHP Chris Munnelly
- North Carolina JR RHP Cody Penny
- Miami JR RHP Eric Nedeljkovic
- Florida State SR RHP Hunter Scantling
- Wake Forest rJR RHP Daniel Marrs
- Clemson rJR LHP Joseph Moorefield
- Miami SR LHP Eric Erickson
- Clemson rSO RHP Mike Kent
- Virginia Tech JR RHP Joe Mantiply
- Virginia JR RHP Whit Mayberry
- Maryland SR RHP Sander Beck
- Maryland SR RHP Brett Harman
- Wake Forest SR RHP Michael Dimock
- Virginia JR RHP Joel Effertz
- Duke SR RHP David Putnam
- North Carolina SR RHP Jimmy Messer
- NC State JR RHP Chris Overman
- Duke JR RHP Chase Bebout
- Wake Forest JR LHP Brian Holmes
- NC State JR RHP Ethan Ogburn
- Virginia SR RHP Justin Thompson
- NC State JR RHP Danny Healey
- Virginia Tech rSR RHP Marc Zecchino
- Wake Forest JR RHP Justin Van Grouw
- Virginia Tech JR RHP Clark Labitan
- NC State rSR RHP Gary Gillheeney
- Florida State SR RHP Adam Simmons
- Florida State JR RHP Robert Benincasa
- Wake Forest JR LHP Niko Spezial
- NC State JR RHP Ryan Wilkins
- Boston College rSO RHP Matt Alvarez
- Wake Forest SR RHP Gabe Feldman
- Clemson JR RHP Jonathan Meyer
- Florida State SR LHP Brian Busch
- Virginia Tech JR RHP Jake Joyce
Hitters
- Clemson JR 1B Richie Shaffer
- Florida State JR 1B Jayce Boyd
- Florida State JR 2B Devon Travis
- Virginia JR SS Stephen Bruno
- Miami JR SS Stephen Perez
- Georgia Tech SO OF Kyle Wren
- Georgia Tech JR OF Brandon Thomas
- North Carolina JR 1B/OF Cody Stubbs
- North Carolina JR 2B/SS Tommy Coyle
- Florida State JR SS Justin Gonzalez
- Miami SR C Peter O’Brien
- North Carolina SR C Jacob Stallings
- Virginia JR SS Chris Taylor
- Florida State SR OF James Ramsey
- Wake Forest JR OF/RHP Mac Williamson
- North Carolina JR OF Chaz Frank
- Virginia JR SS/OF Reed Gragnani
- Georgia Tech SR 1B/LHP Jake Davies
- Virginia Tech rJR 1B/OF Andrew Rash
- Wake Forest JR 1B/LHP Matt Conway
- Virginia Tech rSO OF Tyler Horan
- Duke JR C Jeff Kremer
- Virginia Tech rSO C Chad Morgan
- Miami SR OF Rony Rodriguez
- NC State JR OF Tarran Senay
- NC State JR 3B/C Danny Canela
- Miami JR OF Chantz Mack
- Clemson JR C Spencer Kieboom
- Clemson SR OF Brad Felder
- NC State SR OF Brett Williams
- Georgia Tech SR 2B Conner Winn
- Georgia Tech SR OF Jarrett Didrick
- Wake Forest JR C Brett Armour
- Wake Forest JR SS Pat Blair
- NC State rSR OF Ryan Mathews
- Clemson SR C Phil Pohl
- Virginia SR 1B Jared King
- Miami JR 1B Cade Kreuter
- Virginia SR 2B Keith Werman
- Clemson JR OF Thomas Brittle
- Georgia Tech JR 2B Sam Dove
- NC State JR SS Matt Bergquist
- NC State JR SS Chris Diaz
- Maryland SR 3B Tomo Delp
- Miami JR 2B/3B Michael Broad
- Florid State SR 3B Sherman Johnson
- Wake Forest SR 3B/OF Carlos Lopez
- Duke SR OF Will Piwnica-Worms
- Wake Forest JR 2B Mark Rhine
- Clemson SR 3B/SS Jason Stolz
2012 MLB Draft: Who Will Be Drafted? ACC Edition
If you play baseball in the ACC and I think you are likely to get drafted, then congratulations (!!!) because today you’ve made some random internet baseball hack’s 2012 MLB Draft Draftable Talent List! Last year the ACC had 58 players drafted and, as the link points out, the conference has had over 50 players (excuse me, student-athletes) selected in six straight years. Before putting together my list, I mentally put the over/under number at 55.5 ACC players being drafted in 2012. Wouldn’t you know I came up just barely over the over with 56 names? (EDIT: 57 names. Forgot Kyle Wren was eligible as a sophomore. Game changer.) That’s some great fictional odds-making hustle right there. This list isn’t my favorite because I was stuck in between wanting to do two different things. The names are supposed to represent who I think will be drafted this June (so the focus should be on what the experts/insiders/industry types think), but there’s also plenty of my typical off the wall brand of personal preferences scattered throughout. To take a random example right off the top: Michael Morin is third on the pitching list because I personally love him, but the odds of real life baseball executives “agreeing” with me and picking him over guys like Branden Kline and Kevin Brady are not so good. Because I split the difference between the two list-making ideologies, I’ll plainly admit this list isn’t quite what it could be. But, worst case scenario, if all we’re left with is a list of really good prospects to watch in the ACC, then that’s worth something, right?
Pitchers
Duke JR RHP Marcus Stroman
Georgia Tech JR RHP Buck Farmer
North Carolina JR RHP Michael Morin
Virginia JR RHP Branden Kline
Clemson JR RHP Kevin Brady
Clemson JR RHP Dominic Leone
Clemson JR RHP Scott Firth
Miami JR RHP EJ Encinosa
Georgia Tech JR RHP Luke Bard
North Carolina JR LHP RC Orlan
Miami JR RHP Eric Whaley
Virginia Tech JR RHP Patrick Scoggin
Wake Forest JR LHP Tim Cooney
Miami JR LHP Steven Ewing
Virginia SR LHP Scott Silverstein
North Carolina JR RHP Chris Munnelly
North Carolina JR RHP Cody Penny
Miami JR RHP Eric Nedeljkovic
Florida State SR RHP Hunter Scantling
Wake Forest rJR RHP Daniel Marrs
Clemson rJR LHP Joseph Moorefield
Miami SR LHP Eric Erickson
Clemson rSO RHP Mike Kent
Virginia Tech JR RHP Joe Mantiply
Virginia JR RHP Whit Mayberry
Maryland SR RHP Sander Beck
Maryland SR RHP Brett Harman
Catchers
Miami SR C Peter O’Brien
North Carolina SR C Jacob Stallings
Duke JR C Jeff Kremer
Virginia Tech rSO C Chad Morgan
Clemson JR C Spencer Kieboom
First Basemen
Clemson JR 1B Richie Shaffer
Florida State JR 1B Jayce Boyd
North Carolina JR 1B/OF Cody Stubbs
Georgia Tech SR 1B/LHP Jake Davies
Virginia Tech rJR 1B/OF Andrew Rash
Wake Forest JR 1B/LHP Matt Conway
Second Basemen
Florida State JR 2B Devon Travis
North Carolina JR 2B/SS Tommy Coyle
Shortstops
Virginia JR SS Stephen Bruno
Miami JR SS Stephen Perez
Florida State JR SS Justin Gonzalez
Virginia JR SS Chris Taylor
Virginia JR SS/OF Reed Gragnani
Third Basemen
NC State JR 3B/C Danny Canela
Outfielders
Georgia Tech SO OF Kyle Wren
Georgia Tech JR OF Brandon Thomas
Florida State SR OF James Ramsey
Wake Forest JR OF/RHP Mac Williamson
North Carolina JR OF Chaz Frank
Virginia Tech rSO OF Tyler Horan
Miami SR OF Rony Rodriguez
NC State JR OF Tarran Senay
Miami JR OF Chantz Mack
Clemson SR OF Brad Felder
NC State SR OF Brett Williams
For anybody who scrolled down this far, a special treat: 64 more names worthy of consideration for this upcoming draft. These guys are on the bubble for a variety of reasons, but still worth keeping in mind. It is a fun mix of tools-oriented players waiting on a breakout, steady college guys who offer minimal pro projection yet keep producing, and one-time prospects coming off of injury. Here we go…
Pitchers
Wake Forest SR RHP Michael Dimock
Virginia JR RHP Joel Effertz
Duke SR RHP David Putnam
North Carolina SR RHP Jimmy Messer
NC State JR RHP Chris Overman
Duke JR RHP Chase Bebout
Wake Forest JR LHP Brian Holmes
NC State JR RHP Ethan Ogburn
Virginia SR RHP Justin Thompson
NC State JR RHP Danny Healey
Virginia Tech rSR RHP Marc Zecchino
Wake Forest JR RHP Justin Van Grouw
Virginia Tech JR RHP Clark Labitan
NC State rSR RHP Gary Gillheeney
Florida State SR RHP Adam Simmons
Florida State JR RHP Robert Benincasa
Wake Forest JR LHP Niko Spezial
NC State JR RHP Ryan Wilkins
Boston College rSO RHP Matt Alvarez
Wake Forest SR RHP Gabe Feldman
Clemson JR RHP Jonathan Meyer
Florida State SR LHP Brian Busch
Virginia Tech JR RHP Jake Joyce
Clemson SR RHP David Haselden
Maryland SR RHP Michael Boyden
Wake Forest SR LHP Zach White
Florida State JR RHP Scott Sitz
Boston College SR RHP Kyle Prohovich
Catchers
Wake Forest JR C Brett Armour
Clemson SR C Phil Pohl
Miami JR C Alex San Juan
Florida State rSO C Stephen McGee
Virginia JR C Chace Mitchell
First Basemen
Virginia SR 1B Jared King
Miami JR 1B Cade Kreuter
Virginia Tech SR 1B/RHP Ronnie Shaban
Second Basemen
Georgia Tech SR 2B Conner Winn
Virginia SR 2B Keith Werman
Georgia Tech JR 2B Sam Dove
Wake Forest JR 2B Mark Rhine
Clemson SR 3B/SS Jason Stolz
Maryland SR SS/2B Ryan Holland
Shortstops
Wake Forest JR SS Pat Blair
NC State JR SS Matt Bergquist
NC State JR SS Chris Diaz
Maryland SR SS Alfredo Rodriguez
Third Baseman
Maryland SR 3B Tomo Delp
Miami JR 3B/2B Michael Broad
Florid State SR 3B Sherman Johnson
Wake Forest SR 3B/OF Carlos Lopez
Boston College SR 3B Anthony Melchionda
NC State SR 3B/2B Andrew Ciencin
Outfielders
Georgia Tech SR OF Jarrett Didrick
NC State rSR OF Ryan Mathews
Clemson JR OF Thomas Brittle
Duke SR OF Will Piwnica-Worms
NC State SR OF John Gianis
Virginia JR OF/INF Colin Harrington
Virginia Tech SR OF/LHP Jake Atwell
Boston College JR OF Matt McGovern
Florida State JR OF Seth Miller
Boston College SR OF Andrew Lawrence
Maryland JR OF Jordan Hagel
Maryland SR OF/LHP Korey Wacker
2012 MLB Draft All-ACC Prospect Team
The best prospect at each position is featured in our “starting lineup.” The “starting rotation” is made up of pitchers who are all lumped together in one bit lefty/righty/starter/reliever mess. For the “bench,” we tried to follow the guideline of at least one backup catcher, a backup middle infielder (or two), a backup corner infielder (or two), and at least one reserve outfielder (though typically two). Remaining spots went to the best available pitching prospects who are no doubt thrilled to be a part of our “bullpen.” Add it all up and we should have a 25-man roster of interesting 2012 MLB Draft Prospects from the ACC.
More ACC coverage to come on Thursday or Friday, grad school assignments pending…
Everyday Eight
Miami SR C Peter O’Brien
I’m not the world’s biggest O’Brien fan, but his righthanded power (would love to know his splits to see if a future as a lefty mashing platoon and/or bench option could be in the cards) and plus arm give him two big advantages over the rest of the catchers in the conference.
Clemson JR 1B Richie Shaffer
I’ve waffled back and forth on top ACC first base prospect, but am finally settling on a player not even projected to play first this spring. Long-term, however, I’m pretty confident that first base will be Shaffer’s pro home. Then again, from the “take it for what it’s worth” files, one of my sharper buddies who saw Shaffer in fall ball this year deemed him athletic enough to stick at third base, at least through his first few pro seasons. If nothing else, we know he has the arm (94 peak FB on the mound) for it. His plus raw power and whole-fields approach give him the narrow edge over the underrated Jayce Boyd.
Florida State JR 2B Devon Travis
Travis does everything well. Great athlete, excellent defensive instincts, plus speed, strong arm, and a pro-ready leadoff approach to hitting. I think his upside is that of a viable big league starter at second. The biggest concern I have comes down to what worries me about any second base prospect: in the event his bat isn’t strong enough to handle regular at bats, can he add value at any other position on the diamond? Florida State’s infield is excellent, so there hasn’t been the need to try Travis at anywhere besides second. If he can hold down the fort on the left side of the infield, his overall stock is upgraded due to the boost in his projected floor (utility infielder).
Virginia JR SS Stephen Bruno
Search the archives if you don’t believe me, but I’ve been stubbornly in Bruno’s corner for years. He hasn’t done it at the college level yet due in large part to having to pay his dues while waiting for certain members of Virginia’s talented lineup to turn pro, and Chris Taylor’s current hold on the shortstop job will almost currently keep him from ever playing significant time at the position I project him to play at the next level, but Bruno’s tools are louder than most college middle infielders. He could be the rare example of a player who shows more as a pro than he ever showed in college.
NC State JR 3B Danny Canela
Canela is the best of the conference’s weakest 2012 draft position. 2013 is a different story with Colin Moran (North Carolina), Chase Butler (Georgia Tech), Tyler Palmer (Miami), and Chad Pinder (Virginia Tech) all positioned to be early round picks. Canela’s strong arm allows him to play a little deeper than others at the hot corner, enabling him to increase his so-so range. To his credit, he makes all the plays on balls hit to him. Offensively, he’s got good strength, solid bat speed, and a decent amount of patience. A creative team might try to maximize his value by trying him as a 3B/1B/C hybrid professionally.
Georgia Tech JR OF Brandon Thomas
Florida State SR OF James Ramsey
Wake Forest JR OF Mac Williamson
(EDIT: Georgia Tech SO OF Kyle Wren is an age-eligible sophomore. He was one of my favorite 2013’s, but now vaults to the top of this year’s ACC outfield class. Kid knows how to hit, has that classic patient leadoff hitter approach, and can run down almost anything in center. Definitely my kind of player.)
Not exactly a banner year for ACC outfielders, but Thomas, Ramsey, and Williamson all do enough well to warrant early round draft consideration in 2012. Thomas, the most heralded outfielder in the conference by a long shot, comes by his high praise honestly. I’ve been told his tools have been consistently overrated by the national media (it is admittedly a minority view, but he’s been described to me as a “tweener” outfielder, i.e. not enough power for a corner, not enough speed for center), so I look forward to seeing him for myself this spring. Even as a tweener, he’s still worth mentioning as a great athlete who put up pretty darn impressive numbers last year as a sophomore. Ramsey’s best tool is easily his bat, though I’m not sure there is enough to it if he’s locked into left field always and forever. This is sort of the Devon Travis dilemma all over again: interesting prospect at one position only who is risky because of the unlikelihood of being able to transition to a utility role. Rumors of improved range (better jumps and increased mobility, most notably) and his forthcoming trial in center field for the Seminoles give some hope that he shows enough this spring to get pro teams believing he can at least hold down the fort at center and right. Williamson is another player who I’ve spent a disproportionate (compared to his prospect stock) amount of time writing about over the years. His tools, most notably the arm and power, continue to shine, and his improved approach in 2011, though not yet quite where you’d like to see in terms of BB/K numbers, is encouraging. Rumors of him being tried behind the plate at Wake Forest seem to be officially dead and buried, but I wonder if a pro team might see things differently.
Starting Rotation
Duke JR RHP Marcus Stroman
Georgia Tech JR RHP Buck Farmer
North Carolina JR RHP Michael Morin
Virginia JR RHP Branden Kline
Clemson JR RHP Kevin Brady
Stroman has a big time arm. His mid-90s heat and plus low-80s slider give him enough to thrive in the back of a bullpen, but Duke’s inclination to try him as a starter means we’re all in for an interesting spring. If he can throw either the changeup or cutter for consistent strikes while maintaining his velocity late into games (even if it is 92-94 rather than 95-97), then we could be opening ourselves up to a whole lot of “short righthander!” backlash. I’m in “wait and see” mode with Stroman the Starter, but, as a reliever, he’s a borderline first round talent. Not for nothing, but I’m decidedly in the indifferent towards height camp, as well as the more or less apathetic about arm action and ugly mechanics club. Height helps, sure. I’ll take a pretty delivery over an ugly one, no doubt. But 100+ years of pro ball has shown that pitchers of all shapes and sizes can succeed, and, as for mechanics, so long as the pitcher can repeat whatever they are doing with consistency, I’m happy enough.
If Farmer’s command is right, he could be in store for a huge spring. At his best, he throws four pitches for strikes, three of them (FB, SL, CU) with plus big league upside. Morin is a personal favorite because of his excellent changeup, my preference for the most important pitch in baseball. I’d like to see him tried as a starter professionally, but when he’s allowed to crank it as in short bursts he reminds me a little bit of long-time Phillies reliever and current Reds closer Ryan Madson. Kline’s currently on the bubble when it comes to how pro teams seem him at the next level. He’s currently a very good relief prospect with the potential to be a very good starting pitching prospect. His fastball is solid and his inconsistent but occasionally great low-80s slider intrigues, but (get ready to hear this a lot in the coming months) his chance to start will depend on the continued progression of his changeup as a reliable third pitch. I’m still not sure how Kevin Brady fell to the 17th round in 2011, but Cleveland’s loss is Clemson’s gain. His fastball (up to 96 this past fall, sitting low-90s) has always been a little too straight for my liking, but arm strength that doesn’t come around as often as many teams would prefer. Brady’s secondaries have never wowed me, though bonus points should be given for the fact he has thrown at least three different non-fastball pitches for strikes at varying points in his development. If he can harness one, he’s a rock solid relief prospect. Harness two, and now we’re talking potential mid-rotation starter.
The Bench
North Carolina SR C Jacob Stallings
Florida State JR 1B Jayce Boyd
North Carolina JR 1B/OF Cody Stubbs
I would have been comfortable recommending Stallings as early as round 5 last year, so, yeah, you could definitely say I’m an admirer of his game. He has enough strength and patience to contribute at the plate, and his defense is already pro-quality. He could be 2012’s Curt Casali. Duke JR C Jeff Kremer, Virginia Tech rSO Chad Moran, and Clemson JR Spencer Kieboom round out the catching top five.
Picking Shaffer over Boyd was really tough for me, considering my long-standing affection of Boyd’s plus defense and strong plate discipline. He’s one of 2012’s best natural hitters, but his lack of current power has some worried. A little more meat on his bones could result in some of his drives to the gaps sneaking up and over fences. Georgia Tech SR Jake Davies, Virginia Tech rJR Andrew Rash, and Wake Forest 1B Matt Conway also received consideration here.
I’m excited to see what Stubbs does in a full year of ACC ball. His easy power and reputation as a patient hitter remind me a little bit of old favorite Taylor Ard of Washington State. He likely won’t see much time, if any, playing the outfield for the Tar Heels, but he’ll get a boost if scouts believe he can play anywhere else but first.
North Carolina JR 2B/SS Tommy Coyle
Miami JR SS Stephen Perez
Coyle is right behind Travis for me, and I could see why someone might rate him as the better prospect based on the fact that Coyle’s defense at short is steady enough to be entrusted with everyday duty this spring for Carolina. He offers the similar upside (starting big league second baseman) with perhaps a higher floor (better track record playing other defensive spots besides second). A cleaned up approach could have Perez in line for a huge draft year. In fact, I’d go so far as to say that, speaking strictly on his tools, he is far closer to consensus top college shortstop Deven Marrero than many of the experts believe. His defensive tools are more than adequate to stay at shortstop, but inconsistency making routine plays has hurt him to this point. If he does some on-field growing up, he could sneak his way into the supplemental first.
It was hard leaving solid prospects like Florida State JR SS Justin Gonzalez (really growing on me), Virginia JR SS Chris Taylor (so damn steady across the board), and Georgia Tech SR 2B Conner Winn (anxious to actually see him get on the field) off the list. It was doubly hard not finding a spot for personal favorite Virginia JR Reed Gragnani.
North Carolina JR OF Chaz Frank
We’re going with only one true backup outfielder in Frank so that we could sneak Stubbs’ power bat on to the roster as a 1B/OF swing guy. Frank’s well-rounded offensive game (well, minus the whole power thing) gave him the nod over outfielders with better power reptuations (Virginia Tech’s Tyler Horan, Miami’s Rony Rodriguez, and NC State’s Tarran Senay) who can’t quite match Frank’s defense, speed, and approach to hitting. As nice a prospect as he is, Frank’s inclusion says more about this year’s group of ACC outfielders than it does anything else.
The Bullpen
Clemson JR RHP Dominic Leone
Clemson JR RHP Scott Firth
Leone and Firth both throw fastballs that hitters have a hard time squaring up on. They also both throw plus or near-plus changeups. They also both throw solid curveballs. Firth’s hard slider that flashes plus gives a slight advantage, but Leone’s superior performance in 2011 makes him the safer bet going forward.
Miami JR RHP EJ Encinosa
Encinosa is an example of a guy who just fits his role in the bullpen perfectly. As a starter his stuff is decidedly average, but everything plays up big time for him once he starts letting it go in short bursts. His fastball, both in terms of speed and movement, looks like it is coming from a completely different player. With Marcus Stroman starting, Encinosa could claim the title as best ACC reliever in 2012.
Georgia Tech JR RHP Luke Bard
With the 387th pick (12th round) in this year’s draft, the Boston Red Sox select Bard, Luke from the Georgia Institute of Technology.
North Carolina JR LHP RC Orlan
Miami JR RHP Eric Whaley
Orlan is just me going with my gut. I like his good enough four-seamer, above-average upper-80s cutter, and the two different breaking balls he spins with some consistency. What he lacks in size, he makes up for in tenacity. Eric Whaley is a bit under the radar to those not big on the college game, but his splitter is one of the better pitches of its kind in the amateur ranks. I know I shouldn’t love the splitter like I do, but a childhood of following one — and only one — good Phillie (Curt Schilling) has made me a lifelong fan of the pitch. Whaley has that splitter, a good sinking fastball, a strong track record of success, and a “now” pro body all going for him.
Early 2012 MLB Draft Thoughts – Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest has been an intriguing team to watch for draft fans high on upside due in large part to two names. rJR OF Mac Williamson, a favorite of scouts for years, has long tantalized those who have seen him play with his five (four if you don’t like his hit tool as much as I do) potentially average or better tools. His numbers as a redshirt sophomore (.293/.389/.532 – 27 BB/55 K – 205 AB) give some hope that the improvements shown in approach can help him demonstrate his above-average raw power more easily during game action. Below is some of the older stuff written about Williamson from this very site:
I can’t wait to see if Wake Forest OF Mac Williamson (Round 46) can put it all together in his redshirt junior season. He’s a legit five-tool prospect who has made great strides in his approach to hitting since arriving at Wake Forest. From a pure tools standpoint, I’m not sure there are five better outfielders in all of college baseball. The biggest strike against him for me is the fact he’ll almost be 22 years old by the time next June’s draft rolls around.
…
Williamson, a potential catching conversion candidate at the pro level, has serious power upside and a plus arm, but his swing at everything approach could prevent him from ever getting the chance to put his crazy raw tools to use. He could very well be viewed as a potential late inning relief prospect because of the reported mid-90s heat to go along with a solid sinker/slider mix.
Fellow redshirt junior RHP Daniel Marrs hasn’t received as much love as Williamson, but that’s because scouts haven’t had the same chance to see him play. From an upside standpoint, however, the hard throwing righthander is right up there with the Demons star outfielder. If the reports of his improved arm strength are true, we might be seeing mid-90s fastballs like he once showed as a prep star. Due to his checkered medical history, I’m not sure what else he currently throws — I know he’s shown a splitter and a slider in addition to his four-seamer and two-seamer in the past — but I do know that his progress will be closely tied to his recovery from his labrum surgery and the subsequent adjustments to his mechanics and repertoire. I wrote about Marrs pretty extensively last year, and much of what I said then holds true today. It bears mentioning that reports about his health are more positive in the here and now compared to last year at a similar juncture:
Three bullet points and no mention of one of my favorite 2011 draft “sleepers,” SO RHP Daniel Marrs. Before injuring his labrum, Marrs was a prospect on the same level of current Phillies minor leaguer (ed. note: now Houston farmhand) Jarred Cosart. His pre-injury power stuff (most notably a 92-94 FB peaking at 97 and a good splitter that worked as CU) could tempt a team into drafting him well before his present stuff (sinking upper-80s FB, rapidly improving cutter) would typically merit. Whether or not he ever recaptures that pre-surgery stuff remains to be seen, but Marrs is good enough to continue to expand his repertoire — the new cutter was a great fall ball surprise, I’m told — if that what it takes to succeed.
JR LHP Tim Cooney is a strong Friday night starting pitcher with solid stuff (upper-80s fastball, 91 peak; good curve) that plays up due to good command. He also has size (6’3″, 200), handedness (left), and a track record of success in the ACC (8.85 K/9 in 98.2 IP) on his side. Cooney is the early favorite to be the first Wake Forest player off the board this June, though the two upside plays mentioned above (Williamson and Marrs, for those with short-term memory loss and/or too lazy to scroll up) could overtake him with big/healthy springs.
I like JR 1B Matt Conway more than most because of his underrated raw power, keen eye at the plate, and menacing 6’7″, 250+ pound physique. The high expectations with the bat placed on first basemen severely limit his ceiling, but he’s a fun one to track all the same. JR 2B Mark Rhine and JR C Brett Armour didn’t quite live up to sophomore expectations as their classmate Conway, but both are prospects worth knowing. Rhine has a nice swing, decent speed, and strong defensive tools. Armour brings all of those things to the table as well (dude runs well, and not just for a catcher – we’re talking good athlete speed here), but gets bonus points on the overall value side because of his capacity for catching. Armour’s footwork behind the plate combined with his ability to quickly identify the best course of action (get down, shift weight, backhand, etc.) when blocking balls in the dirt could help make him one of college baseball’s better defensive catchers in 2012. Also in the prospect mix is SR 3B Carlos Lopez. The ninth-year senior (could be just me, but it feels like he’s been around forever) is a consistent hitter who has above-average raw power. I don’t think his bat is quite good enough to overcome his other less than thrilling tools, but he’s a darn productive college player any way you look at him.
Wake has a slew of arms that could warrant consideration on draft day(s). The trio of seniors — RHPs Michael Dimock and Gabe Feldman, along with LHP Zach White — all have shown enough at one point or another to at least get in the prospect discussion. There isn’t a single plus velocity fastball in the bunch, but Dimock’s slider and Feldman’s cutter and curve are all weapons when utilized properly. Of the three, Dimock has the best chance of being a late round senior sign.
Other arms to consider include JR RHP Justin Van Grouw and JR LHP Niko Spezial. Much like the situation the three pitchers listed above found themselves in last year, neither Van Grouw or Spezial is a slam dunk to be drafted in 2012. Both guys, however, have a chance. Van Grouw has one of the better (the best?) fastball/slider combos on the staff, and Spezial has above-average heat from the left side. I’d tentatively rank the five like this (in order, but with the caveat that said order is subject to change on a whim): Dimock – Van Grouw – Spezial – Feldman – White.
I won’t lie and pretend to know too much about JR SS Pat Blair or JR LHP Brian Holmes, but their park/schedule adjusted stats are pretty to look at. Blair (.275/.453/.410 – 55 BB/39 K – 178 AB) and Holmes (9.13 K/9 in 69 IP) will both be followed by me this spring for their impressive sophomore numbers alone. More homework is necessary before a more informed opinion can be shared.
For those already bored with the 2012 Draft, the two most interesting names to know for 2013 at this point are both outfielders: SO OF James Harris and rFR OF Kevin Jordan. Harris has all the tools you’d find in a right field prospect including huge raw power, a strong arm, and enough speed and instincts to easily handle the defensive responsibilities the position requires. Kevin Jordan, by all accounts healthy after receiving a kidney from Wake coach Tom Walter exactly one year and one day ago today, is primed for a big first season of college ball. His speed and athleticism should make him a defensive asset in center field. That defense should serve him well while he shakes the rust off his bat. I remember not being quite as in love with Jordan as a prospect out of high school (121st ranked prep prospect in 2010) as other outlets because of concerns about whether or not he’d ever hit enough to be a regular big league player, but his upside is undeniably intriguing.
The Baseball Draft Report 
