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2015 MLB Draft Prospects – Connecticut

11 Mar 2015 7:00 AM / 1 Comment on 2015 MLB Draft Prospects – Connecticut

rJR RHP Devin Over (2015)
rSR RHP Carson Cross (2015)
rSR RHP Jordan Tabakman (2015)
rSO RHP Ryan Radue (2015)
rJR RHP Max Slade (2015)
rSO RHP Callahan Brown (2015)
SR 1B/OF Blake Davey (2015)
JR 1B Bobby Melley (2015)
SR OF Eric Yavarone (2015)
SR OF Jon Testani (2015)
SR C Connor David (2015)
JR OF Jack Sundberg (2015)
JR 2B/3B Vinny Siena (2015)
JR 3B Brian Daniello (2015)
JR C Max McDowell (2015)
JR 1B/OF Nico Darras (2015)
SO SS/2B Aaron Hill (2016)
SO LHP Anthony Kay (2016)
SO RHP Andrew Zapata (2016)
SO RHP Pat Ruotolo (2016)

I should really stop being surprised when I look up Connecticut’s talent. Every year I mentally subtract the players that they lost and every year I expect to see the cupboard too bare to care from a draft standpoint. Yet every darn year I find myself being in the same mental place, somehow unready to process the half-dozen or so honest to goodness prospects scattered across the team’s roster. This year’s club features a low-mileage pitcher with plus arm strength (rJR RHP Devin Over), a college ace returning from Tommy John surgery capable of throwing three average or better pitches for strikes (rSR RHP Carson Cross), and a changeup specialist with enough size and fastball (88-92ish) to get some late round consideration this June (rSR RHP Jordan Tabakman). Over in particular is a fascinating prospect due to his mid-90s fastball (97 peak) and impressive athleticism. The results have never matched his stuff (in terms of K/9), so scouts will have to really hone on him this spring to see why a guy with an arm like his has been unable to consistently miss bats. That might not be a particularly fair criticism considering his limited track record to date (30ish lifetime innings), but prospect evaluation ain’t always fair.

Offensively, two hitters stand out as particularly promising. SR 1B/OF Blake Davey and JR 1B Bobby Melley both have shown they possess the type of above-average raw power and measured approach to hitting that pro teams prioritize on draft day. Working against them, of course, is the likelihood that both players wind up as first basemen professionally. It’s a steep climb from nice college hitting prospect to legitimate potential big league first baseman. Two guys with lesser bats but greater positional value that could get drafted are JR OF Jack Sundberg and JR C Max McDowell. Sundberg is held back by a lack of any kind of meaningful pop, but he can run, throw, and defend well enough in center that a team might put up with some growing pains with the stick. He profiles better as a 2016 senior sign to me. McDowell, on the other hand, appears to be one of the nation’s most underappreciated catching prospects. He does the things you’d expect out of any real catching prospect (solid glove, interesting power upside) while also doing the extras (really nice runner for the position, more athletic than most backstops) that make him a legitimate top ten round sleeper. Houston’s Ian Rice is unabashedly one of my favorites in all of college baseball, so, naturally, taking his throne as top catching prospect in the AAC was never really going to happen for McDowell. Still, I like him so much that there really wasn’t much internal debate as to who would fill in the second spot, where McDowell sits ahead of the more famous and preferred option by many, Luke Lowery of East Carolina. JR 3B Brian Daniello might just be the top third base prospect in the conference, though that says at least as much about the dearth of talented third basemen in the AAC than anything about Daniello’s maybe/maybe not pro future. In any event, he’s a really solid college player who I’m happy to give a little recognition.

Ceilings, Floors, Tyler Jay, and Dillon Tate

10 Mar 2015 12:10 AM / Leave a comment

I probably shouldn’t reveal something that will undoubtedly make this whole site feel like even more of an amateur operation that it already does, but the impetus for rearranging a few important names (done so before I published it) within the top dozen or so college pitching prospect ranking was a team-specific email I was very casually firing off to a friend. I started by trying to answer the simple question of which college pitcher would I most like to see still on the board if I was a fan of a team picking in the middle of the draft’s first round. I like thinking about that question at the start of the amateur season because it generates a lot more discussion than a simple “Who would you take at 1-1?” query. Right now, I’m pretty sure I’d answer Brady Aiken and Michael Matuella for the latter question, but they would not necessarily be at the top of my list for the first hypothetical. That may seem a bit counter-intuitive, so allow me to explain.

Let’s say you’re picking tenth overall this year. As exciting as it would be to still see Aiken or Matuella on the board that low in the first round, you’d have to assume that there’s a really good reason for the fall. In the case of both Aiken and Matuella, there is an undeniable injury concern that is still a long way from being answered this spring. I think the only way that either pitcher would still be available that late is if news of a significant injury (a la Jeff Hoffman last year) broke between now and June. In last year’s draft, I think a really strong argument could have been made that Hoffman was talented enough compared to his peers that taking him around tenth overall even over healthy pitchers was a gamble worth taking. The peer group surrounding Aiken and Matuella (and any other pitcher that may or may not get red-flagged for injuries this spring) is much stronger. A Phillies fan would have been justified (in my view) in wanting to see his team gamble on Hoffman over Aaron Nola last year; this year, however, taking an injured Aiken or Matuella over a healthy Nathan Kirby, Walker Buehler, or Dillon Tate would make little sense. When you go to the next tier down (Carson Fulmer, Tyler Jay, Kyle Funkhouser, Phil Bickford), then I can begin to see the argument of gambling on a full return to health for Aiken or Matuella beginning to seem more appealing.

(Hastily added post-publication transition goes here. Use your imagination that I wrote something good…)

Even though I included him in the tier with Fulmer, Funkhouser, and Bickford and ranked him in the seven spot on my “preseason” draft rankings, I still think I’ve given short shrift to Tyler Jay. It’s fairly stunning to me that so much was made before the year by many (Keith Law, most famously) about UCSB’s curious decision to leave Dillon Tate in the bullpen, but I haven’t heard one peep about Jay’s usage. We all know by now that a last minute injury opened the door for Tate to start and the script has more or less written itself since then. What I don’t understand is how quiet the internet has been concerning Jay, a wildly talented young lefthander left to pitch only in short, unpredictable outings as Illinois’ closer. I’m not particularly interested in getting into the moral debate about what is best for the player versus what will most benefit the team (fine, real quick here’s my non-morals, all-baseball take: it’s crazy not to start a pitcher like Jay if the pitcher can in fact start), but I’d really like to see a potential first round player play on a regular schedule that would more easily allow as many well-earned eyeballs on him as possible. It’s nuts that literally everybody I’ve talked to, most everything I’ve read, and my own dumb intuition/common sense hybrid approach to this kind of thing (four pitches? great athlete? repeatable delivery?) point towards Jay entering pro ball as a starting pitcher despite never getting an opportunity to take the mound in the first inning in three years of college. If he’s good enough to start professionally three months from now, then he’s damn sure good enough to start in the Big 10. (This is the part where I’ll at least mention that Illinois’ pitching staff is loaded and whatever the coaches want to do with their team is their call. Still, for both short-term [Jay is awesome, so give him more innings] and long-term [Jay getting more innings will show everybody he is awesome, he’ll go higher in the draft because of it, and you can tell recruits you had a guy go top five rather than top twenty-five] reasons, I’d think the decision to start your best pitcher would be a no-brainer. I won’t kill them because it’s quite possible that the Illini coaching staff has information about Jay’s ability to start [relative to his teammates, if nothing else] that we don’t know from the outside looking in. Either that or they are being irrational and buying into old school baseball tropes that will only make their team worse anyway. Where were we?) If Jay goes as high as his raw talent merits (he’s easily a first round pick), then we’re talking about a college reliever being drafted right into a professional rotation. Such a move feels unprecedented to me; a quick check back through the archives reveals only one other similar first round case in the six drafts I’ve covered in depth since starting the site. The only first round college reliever drafted with the idea of converting him to the rotation professionally was Chris Reed. More on that from back in November 2011…

As one of the most divisive 2011 MLB Draft prospects, Stanford LHP Chris Reed will enter his first full season of pro ball with plenty to prove. He could make me look very stupid for ranking him as low as I did before the draft (200th overall prospect) by fulfilling the promise of becoming a serious starting pitching prospect as a professional. I don’t doubt that he can start as he has the three-pitch mix, frame, and mechanics to do so; I just question whether or not he should start. Advocating for time spent in the bullpen is not something I often do, but Reed’s stuff, especially his fastball, just looks so much better in shorter stints. Of course, he might grow into a starter’s role in time. I like that he’s getting innings to straighten out his changeup and command sooner rather than later. Ultimately, however, Reed is a reliever for me; a potentially very good reliever, mind, but a reliever all the same. Relievers are valuable, but the demand for their work shouldn’t match up with the sixteenth overall pick in a loaded draft.

I swear I didn’t copy/paste that just because it’s one of my few predictions to have held up really well so far. I mean, that was a big part of it, sure, but not the only reason. I guess I just find the case of Jay continuously flying just under the radar to be more bizarre than anything. I’m almost at the point where I’m starting to question what negatives I’m missing. A smart team in the mid- to late-first round is going to get a crazy value when Jay inevitably slips due to the unknown of how he’ll hold up as a starter. Between his extreme athleticism, a repertoire bursting at the seams with above-average to plus offerings (plus FB, above-average CB that flashes plus, above-average SL that flashes plus, average or better CU with plus upside), and dominant results to date at the college level (reliever or not), there’s little doubt in my mind that Jay can do big things in a big league rotation sooner rather than later. There two questions that will need to be answered as he gets stretched out as a starter will be how effective he’ll be going through lineups multiple times (with the depth of his arsenal I’m confident he’ll be fine here) and how hot his fastball will remain (and how crisp his breaking stuff stays) when pitch counts climb. That’s a tough one to answer at the present moment, but the athleticism, balance, and tempo in Jay’s delivery give me hope.

It’s hard to mention Jay without also mentioning Tate (multiple times, apparently), the fastest rising of this year’s college group of starter/reliever question marks (Carson Fulmer being the third). Tate’s turn in the rotation this year has allowed him to begin to answer all of those questions emphatically in the positive. His fastball has dipped some late in games so far this year (95-98 early to 91-93 late), but that’s less of a problem when you’re already starting at easy plus to plus-plus velocities; we should all be so lucky to throw in the low-90s when tired. Jay has shown similar velocity to Tate so far out of the bullpen (mid- to upper-90s), so even knocking a few MPHs off his peaks in short bursts would allow his fastball to play at a more than acceptable level in the pros. Just because Tate has done it obviously doesn’t mean Jay is a lock to do it when he gets his chance, but it’s a nice parallel to draw from two fairly similarly talented prospects.

Speaking of parallels, and I really hate to make this comparison because of how lazy it’ll appear, hear me out with this one. Long-time readers of the site know I do my best to look past player characteristics that don’t matter when it comes to developing comps, so hopefully I get the benefit of the doubt on this one. In all honesty, it makes a lot of baseball sense so whatever let’s just do it: Tate’s scouting profile looks a lot like Marcus Stroman’s coming out of Duke. The differences (mechanics aren’t similar at all [man, I loved Stroman’s] and Tate has a few inches on Stroman) are real, but the ties that bind the two are far more interesting. Both Tate and Stroman were primarily relievers through two years of college (Stroman made 13 starts out of his 34 games), both are/were great athletes with repeatable deliveries (even if you don’t love Tate’s, as I don’t, he is athletic enough to keep it up), and both clearly had the stuff to start once you looked past some of the superficial “he’s a reliever!” concerns (big fastballs, plus hard sliders/cutters, and underdeveloped changeups with big upside). I think it’s pretty cool that we’ve come far enough in just a few short years to better appreciate what a slightly non-conventional pitcher can do, and Tate should have no problem blowing past Stroman’s draft ceiling (22nd overall pick) this June. It helps that Tate has a little more size — Stroman being 5’9″ took the short righthander thing to a wonderful extreme — and a few additional contemporary examples of young big leaguers (Yordano Ventura) and minor league stars (Luis Severino) that helped crack the shorty righty glass ceiling. Speaking of Severino, I don’t know if that’s a terrible comparison for Tate, either. I prefer Stroman, but Severino, who dazzled me the two different times I got to see him this summer (93-96 FB, 98 peak; cartoonish mid-80s breaking ball, and a more advanced CU than most pitchers his age), isn’t a terrible name to be associated with.

Man, this is the kind of post that I just sit and write without doing much planning. Now that I’ve re-read it, it shows. Originally I thought we were going to get into the high-ceiling/high-floor abilities of Nathan Kirby and Walker Buehler (and maybe a little Tate), but it wound up mostly being about Tyler Jay and Tate. Two thousand words later and here we are. Go figure.

2015 GB% Update

9 Mar 2015 12:21 AM / Leave a comment

Title gives it away, right? I’ve combed through box scores to date in order to find what I believe is the only publicly available collegiate batted ball data on the internet. It’s not a wildly labor intensive process, but going through box scores and, more painfully, play-by-play data (UCSB, I’m looking at you) takes enough time each week that I’m trying to currently limit sharing info for just the top dozen or so college pitching prospects. That said, as always, I’m open to taking requests. If there’s somebody you want me to start following, don’t hesitate to ask. For now, I’m just using my list of top college arms — since it’s the best list, of course — and trying to keep up with the top ten pitchers with easily searched data. That eliminates IMG Academy FR LHP Brady Aiken, Illinois JR LHP Tyler Jay, and Vanderbilt JR RHP Tyler Ferguson, the latter two getting cut because of unpredictable usage. Here are the names I’m tracking (with my ranking)…

2. Virginia JR LHP Nathan Kirby
3. Duke JR RHP Michael Matuella
4. Vanderbilt JR RHP Walker Buehler
5. UC Santa Barbara JR RHP Dillon Tate
6. Vanderbilt JR RHP Carson Fulmer
8. Louisville JR RHP Kyle Funkhouser
9. CC Southern Nevada SO RHP Phil Bickford
10. Houston JR RHP Jacob Lemoine
11. USC JR LHP Kyle Twomey
13. Texas Christian JR LHP Alex Young

And here is each player’s GB% through March 9, 2015…

Kirby – 73%
Matuella – 39%
Buehler – 75%
Tate – 62%
Fulmer – 59%
Funkhouser – 63%
Bickford – 48%
Lemoine – 57%
Twomey – 65%
Young – 69%

A few very quick observations so far along with an important disclaimer: all of these figures come via digging through a ridiculously small sample. Like, a sample so small that it’s fair to wonder if it borders on meaningless. If you’re more statistically inclined and think there’s too much noise here to even worry about this stuff yet, that’s cool. I think taking it in and combining it with scouting reports and past data makes it a worthwhile tool. For example, Kirby’s impressive start (73% GB outs from a lefthander! Come on!) had me curious enough to go through his game logs from last year. In a much larger sample (six times as big as what we’re currently working with and over 200 total balls in play), he still managed a highly impressive 66%. In only one recorded game (his 3/22/14 game against Miami has no batted ball data that I can find) last season did Kirby get more outs in the air than via the grounder. That’s a little insane. As if we needed another reason to love the guy…

Matuella and Buehler both have so few innings this year that I’d advise just throwing out their numbers for now. In fact, I really should have not included Buehler’s numbers at all since they are potentially misleading if you don’t make your way down to the comments here. Just in case: WALKER BUEHLER HAS ONLY GOTTEN FOUR OUTS ALL SEASON VIA A BATTED BALL SO PLEASE DON’T TAKE HIS AWESOME 75% GROUND BALL RATE TO HEART. I feel better now.

Another potentially misleading number belongs to Phil Bickford, but for a very different reason. As a junior college player, Bickford has actually pitched more than anybody this year so far. His batted ball data, however, ranks ahead of only Matuella and Buehler. More plainly, hitters have had a heck of a difficult time putting the ball in play against Bickford at all this year. He’s actually allowed the same number of batted ball outs as Carson Fulmer while pitching almost three times as many innings. This happens when you are literally getting two out of every third out via the K. I know that any draft fan worth anything isn’t sleeping on Bickford, but I’m not sure many have paid too close attention to the way he’s dominated junior college ball (18.1 K/9 in 60.1 IP) so far this winter.

I mentioned earlier that I have already gone through Nathan Kirby’s box scores from last season. I’d like to do that with a few other arms in the coming days. The Duke website is a disaster, so I’m not sure I’ll be able to do Matuella properly. Buehler stands out as a must-do, but I’m open to any other suggestions if you’ve got any.

MAAC 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team

6 Mar 2015 7:00 AM / Leave a comment

Fairfield SR C Sebastian Salvo
Canisius SR 1B Connor Panas
Canisius JR 2B Anthony Massicci
Quinnipiac SR SS Scott Donaghue
Canisius SR 3B Jesse Puscheck
St. Peter’s JR OF Rob Moore
Fairfield JR OF Jake Salpietro
Quinnipiac JR OF Rob Pescitelli

Canisius SR RHP Devon Stewart
Iona JR RHP Mariano Rivera
Siena SR RHP Ed Lewicki
Fairfield SR RHP EJ Ashworth
Iona JR RHP John Daddino

I’m not sure I’ve had less information for any conference so far than the limited info I scrounged up on the MAAC. That’s not to say that there aren’t hidden gems to be found here; it’s just that the gems are so deeply hidden that they are well past the point of digging that I was able to do. The few players that I do have notes on are actually pretty darn interesting relative to the prospects found at other similarly sized conferences across the conference.

One such interesting prospect is Canisius SR 1B/3B Connor Panas. Panas is a multi-dimensional offensive threat capable of beating you with a single the other way, a deep ball to his pull side, or speed on the base paths (22/26 SB the past two seasons). I don’t know nearly as much as I’d like about his defensive ability, but if he can play a reasonable third base then he’s an even better prospect than I currently give him credit for. I’ve heard from those in the know that even if he can’t play third regularly, he should be athletic and instinctual enough to work as a four-corners utility player in the pros. He’s joined in the Canisius infield with fellow prospects JR 2B/SS Anthony Massicci (steady glove, plenty of arm, nice power/speed/patience offensive blend) and JR 3B Jesse Puscheck (game built on raw strength and physicality).

It’s possible that I’m overrating the Canisius position players seeing as only five hitters from the school have been drafted before, but I don’t think it’s that nuts to imagine a scenario where the three players listed above plus JR 1B/OF Brett Siddall and SR OF Mike Krische warrant serious draft consideration this spring. Add SR RHP Devon Stewart to the mix and you’re looking at a half-dozen total prospects with a shot to sign pro contracts. Even if just the biggest names of the bunch (Siddall, Stewart) and one other Golden Griffin gets picked in June, it will tie the 2011 group of Sean Jamieson, Chris Cox, and Shane Davis as the largest to enter pro ball together.

The alliterative pair of Fairfield SR C Sebastian Salvo and Manhattan SR C Mikey Miranda impressed in limited at bats last year. Interesting power bats like Siena JR 1B/OF Fred Smart, Quinnipiac SR 1B Vincent Guglietti, and St. Peter’s JR OF Rob Moore all could wind up drafted with productive springs.

The aforementioned Stewart’s considerable stuff has never matched his less than stellar results. I think that’s in part because he’s currently asked to shoulder a much larger role as a starter than he’ll be asked to in the bullpen as a professional. In short bursts, his fastball moves from 87ish-92ish up to a far more dangerous mid-90s (95/96) peak. His time as a starter has helped him round out his repertoire, so it’s not uncommon to see him throw an average or better slider or changeup in any given outing. If he can get either pitch to move up half a grade or so in a relief role, then he’ll have more than enough stuff to move quick once the pros get their hands on him.

Bloodlines can be overrated, but I’m buying the potential benefits that Iona JR RHP Mariano Rivera has and will continue to reap as the son of baseball’s all-time best closer. Senior was known for many things such as piling up 652 saves, finishing his career with an inconceivable 205 ERA+, and throwing arguably the greatest singular pitch known to man; while awesome, none of those things (well, maybe some of that cutter magic could rub off…) will translate to helping Junior achieve success on the diamond. It is fair to believe that the insane work ethic and preternatural ability to make adjustments on the mound could be traits passed down from father to son. For now, Rivera is a nice looking relief prospect with enough fastball (88-92, 94 peak) and an above-average slider to compensate for his lack of size and middling track record to date. To a man, every person I spoke to remarked that they believed Rivera would be a better professional than college player.

Siena SR RHP Ed Lewicki is a an all-caps FAVORITE thanks to his plus low-80s changeup, a mid-70s curve that can be an out pitch at times, and a plenty of projection left in his 6-4, 185 pound frame. Iona JR RHP John Daddino’s name doesn’t come up much in my notes, but pitchers who strike out 15.88 batters per nine in a season get special priority here. He’s high on my list of players I want to know more about this spring. I’m not sure if he’ll be drafted or not, but Rider SR RHP Kurt Sowa deserves credit for pitching well over the years while also making such fine films as Seven Samurai, Rashomon, and Drunken Angel. That’s talent.

2015 MLB Draft Talent – Hitting

Canisius SR 1B/3B Connor Panas
Canisius JR 2B/SS Anthony Massicci
Canisius JR 1B/OF Brett Siddall
Canisius SR 3B Jesse Puscheck
Siena JR 1B/OF Fred Smart
Quinnipiac SR 1B Vincent Guglietti
Fairfield SR C Sebastian Salvo
Rider SR 3B Nick Richter
Niagara JR 2B Michael Fuhrman
Rider SR 1B/OF Justin Thomas
St. Peter’s JR OF Rob Moore
Fairfield JR OF/SS Jake Salpietro
Manhattan SR C Mikey Miranda
Quinnipiac JR OF Rob Pescitelli
Manhattan JR 1B/OF Christian Santisteban
Quinnipiac SR SS Scott Donaghue
Marist SR 1B/OF Steve Laurino
Canisius SR OF Mike Krische
Fairfield JR 1B Brendan Tracy
Iona SR OF Jimmy Guiliano

2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching

Canisius SR RHP Devon Stewart
Iona JR RHP Mariano Rivera
Siena SR RHP Ed Lewicki
Fairfield SR RHP EJ Ashworth
Iona JR RHP John Daddino
Marist SR LHP Rich Vrana
Monmouth JR LHP Anthony Ciavarella
Rider JR RHP Vincenzo Aiello
Siena JR RHP Bryan Goossens
Siena JR RHP Rick Morales
Monmouth SR RHP Adam Yunginger
Rider SR RHP Kurt Sowa
Marist SR RHP Chris Napolitano
Monmouth SR RHP Chris McKenna
Quinnipiac JR LHP Justin Thomas

Ivy League 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team

5 Mar 2015 8:00 AM / Leave a comment

Penn SR C Austin Bossart
Dartmouth JR 1B Joe Purritano
Dartmouth SR 2B Thomas Roulis
Penn JR SS Ryan Mincher
Dartmouth SR 3B Nick Lombardi
Harvard SR OF Mike Martin
Columbia SR OF Jordan Serena
Penn rJR OF Jeff McGarry

Dartmouth JR RHP Duncan Robinson
Cornell JR LHP Michael Byrne
Penn SR LHP Ronnie Glenn
Cornell SR RHP Roberto Suppa
Harvard SR RHP Tanner Anderson

With one of the finer institutions of the Ancient Eight within walking distance from my apartment, it should come as no great shock that I’ve seen an alarmingly high number of Ivy League games over the past decade. Sure, I’d love to live in a more deeply talented amateur baseball part of the country, but defending the talent in the Ivy League has almost become a point of weird pride for me, so much so that I think I’d miss regularly attending games if I ever move too far away. On the rare occasions I’ll get contacted by pro teams to share some firsthand insight on guys I’ve seen a lot of, it’s almost always in relation to whatever player is regarded as the Ivy’s top prospect that year. Typically, that guy is one of if not the only player in the conference expected to consider leaving before using up all of his eligibility. That’s one of the reasons I like following the Ivy Leagues as closely as I do. It’s a rare and beautiful world of senior signs as far as the eye can see. In true brainiac Ivy League fashion, it seems like the ones that stay all four seasons tend to be the hitters. The pitchers, very wisely, are more apt to leave for the professional ranks when called upon perhaps in part because of the knowledge that their arms only have so many bullets available for use in a lifetime.

There is plenty of competition this year for top Ivy League senior sign. Penn SR C Austin Bossart might head into the year as the favorite thanks to his strong defensive chops and steadily improving bat. It’s not a sexy all-around profile, but a smart, dependable veteran catcher with a good track record of working with all kinds of different pitchers should have value to a team as the draft winds down. Bossart strikes me as a player who will have a minor league job for as long as he’s willing to stick it out. I have him ranked directly behind two plus speed, above-average or better center field defenders in Harvard SR OF Mike Martin and Columbia SR OF Jordan Serena. The two are very, very similar prospects for me, but I like Martin’s defense, athleticism, and approach at the plate all just a touch better than Serena’s.

A pretty compelling case could be made for Dartmouth SR 2B/SS Thomas Roulis as the conference’s top senior sign. He would have likely been in the top spot on this very ranking were it not for the forthcoming lost developmental time (all of 2015) he’s expected to miss due to injury. Complicating things just a smidge is the fact that, despite his senior year status as a student, he could potentially return to play baseball at Dartmouth in 2016. The Ivy League does not allow “redshirts” in the same way many other conferences do, but exceptions to the rule can be gained by working with the fine folks in the compliance department. Roulis could apply for a Fifth Year Waiver exception if he so chooses. I have no idea if they’d be more willing to grant Roulis a fifth year since he missed so much of his sophomore season in addition to what will likely be his entire senior year. In any event, he’s a player that I’d follow very closely all spring in order to best determine what he’d like to do with his immediate future. He’s a really talented natural hitter with a whole-fields approach and a pretty swing. Outside of the hit tool, nothing physically stands out about his skill set but his high baseball IQ and instincts for the game allows him to work around his modest tools. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of what he has to offer yet, and now we’re left to just wait and hope that he’ll return to health hitting like he’s capable.

In addition to all the names listed above, I’m excited to watch Dartmouth JR 1B Joe Purritano, Columbia rJR 1B Nick Maguire, Cornell SR 1B/OF Ryan Karl, Penn JR SS Ryan Mincher, and Columbia SR OF Gus Craig particularly closely as this year unfolds.

Dartmouth JR RHP Duncan Robinson isn’t just a good pitching prospect for the Ivy League; he’s a good pitching prospect full stop. Guys with his size (6-6, 220 pounds), fastball (consistently low-90s), and breaking ball (have it listed as an in-between pitch in my notes; I’d call it a slider, but think folks at Dartmouth call it a curve) are easy to get excited about. The mechanics and control both check out for me, so his chance at crashing the draft’s top tier of pitching prospects will largely come down to the development of a softer offspeed pitch that will keep hitters off his fastball/breaking ball combo and enable him to start as a pro.

Robinson isn’t the only big Ivy arm angling for a 2015 draft selection this June. My very rudimentary convassing of the conference unearthed close to a dozen draft-eligible pitchers capable of hitting 90 MPH or above. Cornell SR RHP Roberto Suppa might have the hardest fastball in the conference. Paired with his good changeup, usable low-70s curveball, and 6-5, 200 pound frame, Suppa has a backend starting pitcher starter kit ready to go. He’s been reasonably effective in limited innings, but control remains his biggest bugaboo. Harvard SR RHP Tanner Anderson has similar stuff (88-92 FB, 94 peak; mid-70s CB; low-80s CU) with better control, more athleticism, and perhaps (I go back and forth here) a little more projection left in the tank. Then there are the two top lefthanders in the conference, Cornell JR LHP Michael Byrne and Penn SR LHP Ronnie Glenn. Both have had plenty of success to date by pitching off their 88-92 MPH fastballs and working in a collection of average or better secondary offerings. Upside plays like Harvard JR RHP Sean Poppen and Princeton JR RHP Cameron Mingo give the league better depth than many located outside of the northeastern part of the country might expect. Or maybe that’s not true and I’m just getting all preemptively defensive about the Ivy League again.

2015 MLB Draft Talent – Hitting

Harvard SR OF Mike Martin
Columbia SR OF/SS Jordan Serena
Penn SR C Austin Bossart
Penn JR SS Ryan Mincher
Penn rJR OF/RHP Jeff McGarry
Dartmouth SR 2B/SS Thomas Roulis
Dartmouth JR 1B Joe Purritano
Dartmouth SR 3B Nick Lombardi
Columbia SR OF Gus Craig
Princeton JR 2B Dan Hoy
Columbia rJR 1B Nick Maguire
Columbia rJR OF Robb Paller
Cornell SR 1B/OF Ryan Karl
Columbia SR 3B David Vandercook
Cornell SR OF JD Whetsel
Cornell JR OF Jordan Winawer

2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching

Dartmouth JR RHP Duncan Robinson
Cornell JR LHP Michael Byrne
Penn SR LHP Ronnie Glenn
Cornell SR RHP Roberto Suppa
Harvard SR RHP Tanner Anderson
Columbia JR RHP George Thanopoulos
Penn SR RHP Connor Cuff
Harvard JR RHP Sean Poppen
Brown SR RHP David St. Lawrence
Cornell JR LHP Matt Horton
Yale JR RHP Chris Lanham
Princeton JR RHP Cameron Mingo
Brown SR RHP Eddie Fitzpatrick
Penn SR RHP Dan Gautieri
Columbia JR RHP Adam Cline
Dartmouth JR RHP Beau Sulser
Yale JR RHP Chris Moates

Big East 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team

4 Mar 2015 8:00 AM / Leave a comment

Xavier JR C Dan Rizzie
Creighton rJR 1B Reagan Fowler
Butler rSO 2B Chris Maranto
St. John’s SR SS Jarred Mederos
Seton Hall SR 3B Kyle Grimm
Seton Hall JR OF Zack Weigel
St. John’s SR OF Zach Lauricella
Seton Hall JR OF Derek Jenkins

Xavier rJR RHP Jacob Bodner
St. John’s JR RHP Ryan McCormick
Creighton rSR RHP Max Ising
Georgetown SR LHP Matt Hollenbeck
Xavier rJR RHP Adam Hall

Xavier JR C Dan Rizzie is a pro-level defensive player with enough bat speed, patience, and pop to work himself into a really good backup catcher/workable starting catcher profile. Georgetown JR C Nick Collins is right there with him, though it takes a little more projecting with his glove. On the bright side, his bat is generally regarded as the better of the two. I happen to think the bats are closer to a coin flip at this point, so that’s why the man with the more advanced glove (Rizzie) gets the nod as the top catcher here. While it’s no stunner that we’ve yet to have a Dan Rizzie – or any Rizzie, for that matter – play professional baseball, it took me by surprise (to the point I almost don’t believe my own exhaustive ninety seconds of research on the subject) that there doesn’t appear to have ever been a “Nick Collins” or any variation thereof to ever play affiliated ball. As if I needed another reason to want to see Nick Collins have a big year…

Creighton rJR 1B Regan Fowler is an impressive young hitter who can more than hold his own at first base with the leather. I say it so often that I imagine the dozen or so regular readers of the site skim right over it by now, but the dearth of power bats in this year’s college class will push up players who can actually hit higher than most currently project. Fowler’s track record with the stick and positive scouting reviews as a hitter could make him a sneaky top ten round pick player. That might be a little rich based on recent history – as a draft prospect he reminds me some of Houston’s Casey Grayson, a 21st round pick last year – but his shot at pro ball is coming.

Fowler isn’t the only Big East big bat worth tracking this spring. Villanova JR 1B Max Beermann has the big power befitting a 6-7, 225 pound man. I’ve seen a lot of him already, but look forward to seeing him man first base for the Wildcats in what could be his final college season this year. Without typecasting him too much, his issues at the plate are fairly typical of most long-levered young power hitters. I’ve heard a lot of firsthand buzz about him working hard to clean up his approach (both physical and mental) as a hitter, so I’m higher on him as a draft prospect than perhaps his results to date alone would merit. The only knock on Beermann at the moment says more about me than him. Since seeing him play for the first time a few years back in beautiful Plymouth Meeting, PA, I’ve had intermittent nightmares about a cold, bleak future where Chris Berman is, against all logical odds, still calling the HR Derby. We all die a little inside the first time he unleashes his “Hey” nickname as the poor, unsuspecting slugger goes yard. I’m sorry, Max Beermann; you deserved better.

Seton Hall SR 1B Sal Annunziata gets points for his above-average raw power, underrated athleticism, and potential defensive versatility as a solid glove at first who can moonlight behind the plate and in the outfield. I feel bad riffing on back-to-back player names, but I can’t resist: if you can guess where Sal Annunziata was born and raised, you’ll get free copies of my nonexistent draft book for life. Hint: he’s not from Montgomery, Alabama.

I’m not quite as excited about the rest of the infielders in the conference, but there are still some nice potential late-round prospects here, many of whom have more support from those I’ve talked to than me personally. That’s typically a good sign for a player’s future. St. John’s SR SS Jarred Mederos stands out as a steady glove with some upside as a hitter. Seton Hall SR SS DJ Ruhlman has a lot of fans listed among those who have seen him most often. Xavier rSO SS Andre Jernigan is in the same boat. On the right side of the infield you have Butler rSO 2B Chris Maranto (average or better hit tool, might be able to play some SS professionally) and Georgetown SR 2B Ryan Busch (similar hit tool, average arm/speed).

Seton Hall JR OF Derek Jenkins has the type of carrying tool (plus speed) to get drafted higher than I currently believe. He’s also a more than capable center field defender who has shown flashes at the plate. His teammate JR OF Zack Weigel is another interesting glove in center, but with enough of a power edge over Jenkins that I think he’s currently the better bet (by a razor thin margin) as a pro. I understand the appeal of Jenkins, however, and acknowledge his looming breakout potential.

On the mound, the Big East offers an array of potential bullpen pieces of varying quality. I’ve stuck with Xavier rJR RHP Jacob Bodner through the good (flashes of dominance in 2013) and the bad (consistently inconsistent control, 2014 season wiped out due to injury), so might as well stick it out to the end. At his best he has the look of a really good big league reliever, flashing a mid-90s fastball and an above-average slider. His stature (5-11, 180 pounds) will turn some teams off, but he more than makes up for his lack of physicality with some of the best athleticism of any pitcher in his class. He’s an arm strength/athleticism gamble at this point, but one I feel comfortable with considering the lack of relative upside among his Big East pitching brethren. His teammate at Xavier, rJR RHP Adam Hall, could make a claim as having comparable upside due to his 6-6, 200 pound frame and fastball that has hit as high as 94. St. John’s JR RHP Ryan McCormick and Georgetown SR LHP Matt Hollenbeck are more in the reliability over flashiness subgroup, but both have the requisite history of missed bats and good enough stuff to make a mark on pro ball. McCormick in particular appeals to me as a sturdily built three pitch potential fifth starter/middle reliever type.

I couldn’t write about the Big East without mentioning one of my favorite stories in college baseball. Creighton rSR RHP Max Ising has taken the long path from junior college reliever to potential MLB draft pick, missing bats and defying the odds at every step along the way. Guys his size (5-9, 190 pounds) don’t often possess big league quality heat (94 peak). In addition to his fastball, Ising throws a pair of useful offspeed pitches (slider/changeup) that can both lead to strikeouts on any given outing. We already know college relievers get pushed down on draft day and we know that righthanders under 6’0” face an uphill battle in convincing pro teams to give them a shot, but if Ising continues to strike batters out at the rate he’s shown as a college player…well, you never know.

2015 MLB Draft Talent – Hitting

Xavier JR C Dan Rizzie
Creighton rJR 1B Reagan Fowler
Georgetown JR C Nick Collins
St. John’s SR SS Jarred Mederos
Butler rSO 2B/SS Chris Maranto
Seton Hall SR SS DJ Ruhlman
Xavier rSO SS/3B Andre Jernigan
Xavier SR C/1B Derek Hasenbeck
Seton Hall JR OF Zack Weigel
Villanova JR 1B/RHP Max Beermann
Seton Hall SR 1B/OF Sal Annunziata
Seton Hall JR OF Derek Jenkins
St. John’s SR OF Zach Lauricella
St. John’s SR SS/2B Bret Dennis
Seton Hall SR 3B Kyle Grimm
Georgetown SR 2B Ryan Busch
St. John’s SR 2B/3B Robert Wayman
St. John’s JR OF Alex Caruso
Xavier rSR OF Patrick Jones
St. John’s SR 1B Matt Harris
Xavier rSR 1B/OF Brian Bruening

2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching

Xavier rJR RHP Jacob Bodner
St. John’s JR RHP Ryan McCormick
Creighton rSR RHP Max Ising
Georgetown SR LHP Matt Hollenbeck
Xavier rJR RHP Adam Hall
St. John’s JR LHP Alex Katz
Creighton JR RHP Taylor Elman
Creighton rSR RHP Jack Rogalla
St. John’s rJR RHP Joey Christopher
Villanova rSR RHP Maximo Almonte
Creighton rJR RHP Tommy Strunc
St. John’s JR RHP Michael Sheppard
St. John’s JR LHP Matt Clancy
St. John’s JR RHP Thomas Hackimer
Villanova rSR RHP Chris Haggarty
Villanova SR RHP Kagan Richardson
Seton Hall JR RHP Luke Cahill

American Athletic Conference 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team

3 Mar 2015 8:00 AM / Leave a comment

Houston JR C Ian Rice
Central Florida SR 1B James Vasquez
Cincinnati JR 2B Ian Happ
Central Florida SR SS Tommy Williams
Connecticut JR 3B Brian Daniello
Houston JR OF Kyle Survance
Houston rJR OF Ashford Fulmer
Memphis JR OF Jake Little

Houston JR RHP Jacob Lemoine
Houston JR RHP Patrick Weigel
South Florida JR RHP Jimmy Herget
Connecticut rJR RHP Devin Over
Tulane JR RHP Ian Gibaut

I can’t speak for everybody in the college game, but I for one am very pleasantly surprised about the continued strength of the AAC. The conference is like a mutated version of a few different conferences, and the end results were better than anybody – well, at least I – could have hoped. Happ and Lemoine give the AAC two potential first round picks, Rice and Max McDowell stack up against any conference’s 1-2 catching punch, solid senior signs like Vasquez, Williams, Dylan Moore, Kyle Teaf, and Carson Cross lend surprising depth to an increasingly deep talent pool, and talented high upside wild cards like Ashford Fulmer, Weigel, and Over keep things interesting.

That’s the short version for the AAC this year. The much, much longer version (once you add everything up) can be found just a few clicks away. I wrote team profiles for all of the linked schools below. The two missing schools get their belated time in the sun below. Connecticut was one of the very last teams to post rosters online. Tulane had their roster up with time to spare, but I missed it in my first pass through the conference because I’m dumb. I might turn their team profiles into separate posts at some point, but until then I just copy/pasted what I had for you to read at your leisure.

Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
Houston
Memphis
South Florida
Tulane

*****

Connecticut

*****

Tulane

The practical logistics of moving a pitcher from the college bullpen (or an expected pro bullpen role) to a professional rotation is a hot topic every year at draft time. Everybody has a different opinion about what makes a starter a starter and a reliever a reliever. Some focus on one specific aspect of a pitcher’s game and use that as the determining factor when deciding on a future role. Too often this is a simple question of size — Is he 6’0″ or less? Stick him in the pen then! — which is obviously an unfortunate bout of reducing a complex (by baseball standards) decision into a binary yes/no that lacks the necessary nuance and ratiocination required. Thankfully there are others, more sensibly in my view, who take a holistic approach as they debate the merits of a pitcher’s depth of repertoire, ease of mechanical repeatability, physical stature (size is a factor, but not the factor) and conditioning, and ability to maintain high-quality stuff deep into outings as the pitch count climbs and fatigue sets in. Creating a dichotomy using short and tall as determining factors is bad process that occasionally will lead to positive results

Forgive me if I copy/paste that paragraph whenever Dillon Tate, Carson Fulmer, and Tyler Jay are brought up this spring. For now, the logic presented above applies to JR RHP Ian Gibaut, who has excelled as a college reliever since first stepping foot on campus at Tulane in 2013. There’s no reason to believe that Gibaut’s success as an amateur reliever would slow down in any way as he transitions to pro ball this summer. Still, I’d be tempted to stretch him out and see how his stuff holds up as a starter. My desire to see him work in a starter’s role isn’t so great that I’d kill a team for thinking he’ll be best in the bullpen as a professional; if anything, it’s more of a selfish curiosity to see what a college reliever with the build, arm action (in my amateur view), and diverse enough set of pitches (above-average 75-78 CB, upper-70s CU that flashes plus [others like it less and I’ll at least acknowledge it’s an inconsistent pitch at present], and hard mid-80s SL) could do in a more taxing role. I’ve heard but not seen firsthand that Gibaut’s velocity is the type that plays up in short bursts, so keeping him in the bullpen would seem to be a perfectly reasonable course of action. If that winds up being how it plays out, then don’t be surprised when Gibaut winds up as one of this year’s draft fastest moving college relief prospects.

I’ve always preferred JR RHP/OF Tim Yandel as a hitter to a pitcher, but the evidence is now stacked up too high against my original position to ignore. The light has never really gone on for Yandel as a hitter, but he’s emerged as a solid college arm with a chance to find work as a middle reliever type in the pros thanks to his plus 78-83 slider. rJR RHP Alex Massey has shown he can miss bats in his swingman role over his two plus years at Tulane. Given time in the bullpen exclusively should help his already solid fastball (88-92, 94-95 peak) play up a tick, all the better to complement his existing above-average slider. If you’re scoring at home, that’s three potential relievers that could come out of this year’s Tulane staff.

There’s less to love offensively, but it isn’t as though Tulane has no hitters worth keeping an eye on. SR 2B Garret Deschamp has flashed some power to the gaps and can field his position. I’ve heard nothing but positive things about SR 1B/3B Tyler Wilson’s bat, so hopefully we’ll get a chance to see what he can do with more than the 26 AB he received last season. JR OF Richard Carthon can run, but it remains to be seen if he’ll hit.

Tulane’s sophomore class is where it’s at. SO SS Stephen Alemais is a legit defensive shortstop with a big arm and serious wheels. He didn’t light the world on fire as a freshman, but he held his own. Same could be said for SO RHP JP France (but with standout peripherals), an undersized athletic fireballing righthander in the mold of Lance McCullers. C Jake Rogers, 3B Hunter Hope, OF Grant Brown, and RHP Corey Merrill are all also sophomores talented enough to finish as high picks.

2015 MLB Draft Talent – Hitting

Cincinnati JR 2B/OF Ian Happ
Houston JR C Ian Rice
Central Florida SR 1B/OF James Vasquez
Central Florida SR 2B/SS Dylan Moore
Houston JR OF Kyle Survance
South Florida SR 2B/SS Kyle Teaf
Houston rJR OF Ashford Fulmer
Central Florida SR SS/3B Tommy Williams
Connecticut JR 1B Bobby Melley
Connecticut SR 1B/OF Blake Davey
Houston JR 2B Josh Vidales
Houston JR 1B Chris Iriart
Memphis SR 1B/3B Tucker Tubbs
South Florida SR OF Austin Lueck
Memphis JR OF/1B Jake Little
Connecticut JR C Max McDowell
Memphis SR C/1B Carter White
East Carolina JR C/1B Luke Lowery
Memphis rJR SS Jake Overbey
Central Florida SR OF Erik Barber
South Florida rJR OF Buddy Putnam
Tulane JR OF Richard Carthon
Tulane SR 1B/3B Tyler Wilson
Tulane SR 2B Garret Deschamp

2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching

Houston JR RHP Jacob Lemoine
Houston JR RHP Patrick Weigel
South Florida JR RHP Jimmy Herget
Connecticut rJR RHP Devin Over
Tulane JR RHP Ian Gibaut
Central Florida rJR RHP Mitchell Tripp
Connecticut rSR RHP Carson Cross
Tulane JR RHP/OF Tim Yandel
Tulane rJR RHP Alex Massey
Central Florida SR RHP Zach Rodgers
South Florida rSR RHP/OF Casey Mulholland
Central Florida rSR RHP Spencer Davis
Connecticut rSR RHP Jordan Tabakman
Cincinnati JR RHP Mitch Patishall
East Carolina rJR RHP David Lucroy
Houston SR RHP Jared Robinson
Memphis rJR RHP Craig Caufield
Houston SR RHP Aaron Garza
East Carolina SR LHP/OF Reid Love
Central Florida rJR RHP Ryan Meyer
Houston JR RHP Bubba Maxwell
Memphis SR RHP Dylan Toscano
Central Florida SR RHP Tanner Olson
Memphis JR LHP Colin Lee
Memphis SR LHP Caleb Wallingford

Travis Maezes, Max Schrock, and Ian Rice

2 Mar 2015 8:00 AM / 1 Comment on Travis Maezes, Max Schrock, and Ian Rice

It would take exceptionally disappointing seasons for any of Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, and Alex Bregman to slip past this year’s draft’s first twenty-six picks and into the compensatory round. DJ Stewart’s margin for error isn’t as great, but it would still be a surprise to me to see him fall past the thirty-sixth and final pick of the draft’s first day. Beyond those four names, all bets are off. More bluntly, the fifth spot on this particular ranking of college bats is where things get weird.

Weird doesn’t have to be bad, so I have no problem being the high man on Michigan JR 3B Travis Maezes for now. His hit tool is legit, his power should play average or better, and he has the athleticism, arm strength, and instincts to be a really strong third baseman in the pros. Real life work commitments and frustration at the death of College Splits put me way behind on writing about last year’s draft. If I had written all that I wanted to, I assure you that many glowing pieces on Cal State Fullerton 3B Matt Chapman would have been written. I absolutely loved Chapman as a draft prospect and think he’ll be an above-average pro player for a long time. I don’t bring him up just to relive the past, of course; from a skills standpoint, Maezes reminds me a lot of Chapman. I swear that’s a comparison that I came by honestly through watching them both, hearing from smarter people than myself, and reading whatever has been written about them from the comfort of my couch. Then I looked at the numbers (top Maezes, bottom Chapman) and…

.307/.403/.444 with 54 BB/64 K in 530 PA
.295/.391/.443 with 73 BB/84 K in 702 PA

…whoa. That’s pretty good. Another player comparison that I’ve heard for Maezes that takes me back to my earliest days as a baseball fan is former Phillies 3B Dave Hollins, he of the 162 game average of .260/.358/.420 with 18 HR, 27 2B, 76 BB, and 113 K*.

South Carolina JR 2B Max Schrock could be added to the mix above and not be out of place in the least. His career line to date isn’t too far off from Chapman especially at .281/.381/.422 with 58 BB/45 K in 446 PA. A friend in the game recently compared him to another former Fullerton star, Tim Wallach. I’m not sure I see that since the body types, handedness, and home run power all seem off to me, but it’s something to think about. I’ve run into similar issues (minus the more manageable HR totals) with a David Freese (as a hitter) comparison for Schrock. One mainstream comp (I think, can’t remember where I first saw it) for Schrock is Kyle Seager. I like that comparison not only because it’s a decent enough lens to view Schrock as a prospect (again, however, I don’t think the power expectations fit – that’s something of a trend here), but also because it’s yet another excuse to talk about my appreciation for Kyle Seager. I’ve said a lot of inane stuff at this site over the years, but one of the few strokes of competency came back in March of 2009…

Seager’s well-rounded game (great plate discipline, slightly above-average power, good baserunner, high contact rate) make him a personal favorite of mine and as good a bet as any college hitter to settle in to a long career as a league average (at least) big leaguer.

My only regret is not going in harder back then when I knew Seager was going to be really good. I saw him play up close literally dozens of times during his time at North Carolina and a little nagging voice was always in my head telling me he was a better player than his far more famous teammate Dustin Ackley. I think if I had the guts (and, to a point, knowledge) that I now have back then, I would have at least given a few moments of honest consideration for putting Seager over Ackley on one of my all-important lists. Consideration would not have led to actually acting on it because Ackley was Ackley. That brings us full circle and gets me back to a far more comfortable place where I can talk about my misses rather than my hits: I absolutely LOVED Ackley, so, you know, win some lose some, right?

I’ve used Kyle Seager as a comp a few times in the past, for what it’s worth. The first was Brad Miller (“Seager with more defensive upside”), then it was Matt Reynolds (“a player in-between Seager and Chase Headley is a realistic ceiling”), and finally, one I completely forgot I wrote about even though it was published less than three months ago, came Clemson JR SS Tyler Krieger (“some scouting similarities between the two”). Neither the Miller nor the Reynolds examples make me cringe in hindsight, so I don’t feel too badly about going to the Kyle Seager comp well as often as I do. It’s been pretty good to me so far.

All that said, I’m not sure I’m completely on board with the Schrock/Seager comparison. I liken him more to a Mark Ellis type of hitter capable of giving you more or less league average production at the plate while making up the difference as needed with smart base running and steady defense. That’s an everyday player in the big leagues. Interesting to note that Miller (taken with pick 62), Reynolds (71), and Seager (82) were all off the board around the same range on draft day. That could very well be the window that Schrock (and perhaps Krieger) find themselves taken in this June. Getting a potential regular at second base with a late-second/early-third round pick would make any team really happy.

From the second-to-last day of 2014…

I’m sky high on Houston JR C Ian Rice, a transfer by way of Chipola who can really, really hit. If he shows enough behind the plate to convince teams he’s a catcher long-term (as I believe), there’s no telling how high he could rise by June. It’s just a hair too early to start stacking up prospects by position, but I’m very sure Rice will wind up higher on my board at that spot than anywhere else on the internet.

Nothing has changed since then to move me off my strong positive feelings towards Rice. If anything, I like him even more after hearing some positive things about his glove through the early stage of the college season. Now it’s time to kick back and wait until the rest of the draft internet catches up to how good Rice really is. While we wait for the world to recognize my brilliance, let’s kill some time with a quick tangent. The nice thing about liking a guy more than the consensus goes back to the buzz word you hear during every draft in every sport: value.

Value is a damn near impossible concept to pin down as it relates to an event as large and as filled with unknowns as the MLB Draft. I’ve always tried to avoid being overly critical of a team “overdrafting” a player because of the huge amount of uncertainty that exists when you’re working at an information deficit inherent with being privy to only one board (your own) yet simultaneously working around twenty-nine often non-rational actors on draft day. Even if you think you have some faint idea how other teams may have their boards lined up in the early going of a draft, that advantage only lasts so long. From the outside looking in we know even less. That’s one of the frustrating yet freeing things about being an outsider to the draft process.

If all the expert sites (BA, D1, PG, BP, ESPN, Fangraphs, etc.) have a player ranked in the fifties but he goes in the teens, the first instinct is to point, laugh, and declare the drafting team – not to appeal to authority or anything, but isn’t it crazy that the one collective group here with far more information than any of those outlets and way more on the line if they mess up such a big decision is the one we assume is wrong? — guilty of overdrafting the prospect. All of those major outlets (BA, PG, and likely the new-ish D1) have a ton of resources and arguably as much (if not more) of a league-wide feel for what draft boards could look like, so when they stack their final boards pre-draft it does serve a purpose. Nothing, of course, is written in stone.

My example from last year was Cole Tucker (who I’d like to preemptively note is an outstanding baseball player and very worthy early round draft prospect) going 24th to Pittsburgh. If I was misguidedly put in charge of a team’s draft, I would not have had a first round grade on Tucker. Baseball America, to use just one readily available source, had him at 84th overall heading into the draft. Their ranking was no more or less right or wrong than Pittsburgh’s. Player valuation is all over the place when it comes to amateur talent, as it should be. More to the value point, however, is the fact that Pittsburgh didn’t pick again until 39. If you really valued Tucker and believed the odds markedly decreased on him being available with that later pick, it’s worth it to “overdraft” your guy because the risk of losing him entirely is far more painful than getting your second choices at 24 and 39.

I’m as guilty as anybody (at times) of getting hung up on certain players that I hope my favorite team drafts (or avoids) in all the sports that matter to me. For example, I know far less about hockey than any other major sport, but if my hometown team passes up the guy I wanted them to draft in favor of some nobody, I’m going to react negatively. The fact that my research on both the guy I wanted them to draft and the nobody adds up to a grand total of fifteen combined minutes of reading whatever pre-draft coverage pops up first on Google (hopefully not from a site full of made-up scout quotes that the author didn’t even bother try to disguise in an original voice…not saying this happens in baseball, except that it does, it stinks, and I guess that’s how you get ahead [well, that and sucking up to writers on Twitter] at certain unnamed companies) and/or the hundreds (!) of seconds I’ll spend YouTube scouting (even though I know nothing beyond the very basics of the sport) is beside the point. Everybody wants to be an expert on draft day. So many opinions get thrown around on such highly speculative topics that just hitting on one correct scouting assessment has the positive impact of negating the dozens of misinformed, wrong-headed nonsense spewed all day. I support having the conviction to ride or die with your own personal draft rankings, but being snarky and chiding a team for overdrafting a player based solely on what you think was best for them without considering an alternate viewpoint feels unnecessarily parochial and naïve.

So, I hope Ian Rice receives his proper due as a draft prospect between now and June. If not, then I hope that the team I grew up with or a team that I’m assisting in draft coverage is able to take him later than I feel his skills deserve. That’s value, baby. In terms of draft stock he reminds me a little bit of an inverse version former Ole Miss and LSU-Eunice catcher Stuart Turner, who was known more for his glove than his bat. Turner hit enough to go in the third round (pick 78) to Minnesota in 2013. I see no reason why Rice can’t do the same. Another comparable prospect and player (minus handedness as a batter) is fellow 2013 draft pick (53rd overall) Andrew Knapp out of Cal. It would take Rice exceeding even my own sky high expectations to wind up in that draft range, but that’s why they play the games, right?

* I don’t include batting lines for scouting comps to create any unnecessary expectations for these players – it’s hard enough to compare any individual human being to another, let alone one ballplayer in the midst of a historic, “special vitamin” fueled era of offense to another in a far more muted offensive environment – but to give a reference point that highlights one possible viable outcome.

2015 MLB Draft Top Fifty College Pitching Big Board

27 Feb 2015 10:00 AM / 1 Comment on 2015 MLB Draft Top Fifty College Pitching Big Board

I feel shockingly good about this list considering my historic personal tendency to favor evaluating hitters over pitchers by a factor of roughly ten trillion to one. I also have a lot more to say about this group than I had anticipated, so be on the look out for some commentary in the coming days. In the meantime, as always, feel free to tell me how stupid I am in the comments or via email.

IMG Academy FR LHP Brady Aiken
Virginia JR LHP Nathan Kirby
Duke JR RHP Michael Matuella
Vanderbilt JR RHP Walker Buehler
UC Santa Barbara JR RHP Dillon Tate
Vanderbilt JR RHP Carson Fulmer
Illinois JR LHP Tyler Jay
Louisville JR RHP Kyle Funkhouser
CC Southern Nevada SO RHP Phil Bickford
Houston JR RHP Jacob Lemoine
USC JR LHP Kyle Twomey
Vanderbilt JR RHP Tyler Ferguson
Texas Christian JR LHP Alex Young
UCLA JR RHP James Kaprielian
Cal Poly Pomona JR RHP Cody Ponce
Chipola JC FR LHP Mac Marshall
IMG Academy FR RHP Jacob Nix
Texas Christian JR RHP Riley Ferrell
Kentucky JR RHP Kyle Cody
Miami rJR LHP Andrew Suarez
Arizona State JR LHP Brett Lilek
Clemson JR LHP Matthew Crownover
Auburn JR RHP Trey Wingenter
Texas A&M JR RHP Grayson Long
Cal State Fullerton JR RHP Justin Garza
Cal State Fullerton JR RHP Thomas Eshelman
Missouri State JR RHP Jon Harris
Yavapai JC SO RHP Chandler Eden
Virginia JR RHP Josh Sborz
Azusa Pacific JR RHP Josh Staumont
Houston JR RHP Patrick Weigel
UCLA rSO LHP Hunter Virant
Texas Christian rSO RHP Mitchell Traver
Dallas Baptist JR RHP Brandon Koch
Oregon rSO LHP Cole Irvin
UCLA JR RHP Cody Poteet
Stanford JR RHP Marc Brakeman
Missouri JR RHP Alec Rash
Florida JR RHP Eric Hanhold
Clemson JR LHP Zack Erwin
Judson BHP Ryan Perez
Loyola Marymount rJR RHP Trevor Megill
UC Santa Barbara JR LHP Justin Jacome
Arkansas JR RHP Trey Killian
Arizona State JR LHP Ryan Kellogg
Brigham Young JR RHP Kolton Mahoney
San Diego JR RHP/1B David Hill
Clemson JR RHP Clate Schmidt
Oregon JR LHP Garrett Cleavinger
Arizona State JR RHP Ryan Burr

CJ Hinojosa and David Thompson

26 Feb 2015 8:00 AM / 1 Comment on CJ Hinojosa and David Thompson

For better or worse, I have a tendency to stick with guys I’ve long liked. Though it may not be the perfect example of that line of thinking, the relatively high placements of SS CJ Hinojosa and 3B David Thompson on my current college hitting big board reflects as much on the promise each player once exhibited (fourteenth and fifty-sixth on the final 2012 board here, respectively) than anything either guy has done through two years of college ball. That’s not to say that Hinojosa and Thompson have disappointed at Texas and Miami. It’s true that both players were better as freshmen than sophomores, though Thompson’s second season struggles can be explained in part to battling injuries. Even if they haven’t quite lived up to the considerable expectations placed on them by internet know-it-alls like me, both have shown plenty of flashes of the ability that once made them potential stars. Both have the talent to get back into the first round conversation with springs that line up with their ability.

At face value Hinojosa’s raw tools and production to date don’t blow you away. His physical abilities defensively work as well as they do because of exceptional first-step instincts and a keen awareness of situational baseball. All of that belies his as yet untapped talent as both a hitter and a fielder. I’m not a scout nor do I have any serious aspirations to be one. I do, however, watch an unhealthy amount of baseball, so I’d like to think I’ve picked up on a few things over the years as a reasonably intelligent person. Even after years of closely watching the game, assessing bat speed remains one of the most nebulous concepts for me. Many of the professionals I’ve talked to over the years have made me feel a bit better about this, as many have agreed with my take that judging bat speed is the closest baseball gets to Justice Potter Stewart’s obscenity threshold test of “I know it when I see it.” Not everybody I’ve talked to has agreed with me on this, but Hinojosa’s bat speed falls in the top tier of all college prospects in this year’s class (if we expanded that search for all of college ball he’d be joined by exciting 2016 prospects like Pete Alonso, Sheldon Neuse, and Kyle Lewis). Plus bat speed with a whole bunch of 50’s and a high degree of certainty of sticking up the middle defensively makes for a pretty enticing pro prospect.

From this very site back in April 2012…

At his best, Hinojosa swings the bat with some of the most fluid yet chaotic yet silky smooth violence you’d ever like to see – his level swing and crazy bat speed epitomize the old John Wooten quote “Be quick but don’t hurry.” Defensively, I think he’ll stick up the middle fairly easily, but he’s one of those “tweener” types for some. Tweener is normally a pejorative turn, but in this case I’d say that the two things that Hinojosa is between are average or better shortstop and potential Gold Glove winning third baseman. His strong commitment to Texas and a season-ending shoulder injury should push him down the board, but I’d take him in the first if I thought he could be convinced to sign.

I’m surprised to have never seen this comparison before, but Hinojosa as a draft prospect reminds me in many ways of former Texas infielder and eventual late-first round pick Omar Quintanilla. That’s the kind of draft ceiling (Quintanilla went 33rd overall) that I think currently makes sense for Hinojosa. Things didn’t work out as hoped for Quintanilla professionally, but that’s hardly a red flag worth stressing out about when evaluating Hinojosa. I have one buddy in the game that likes Hinojosa as much as I do (perhaps even more), and he threw out an Edgar Renteria statistical comp (.280/.340/.400 with 10 HR, 30 2B, and 20 SB) as an absolute best-case scenario ceiling. I’d love to go there, but can’t quite see the bat reaching those heights (to say nothing of the overly generous stolen base totals). If you knock just 5% off of those totals, however, you get a rough line of .265/.320/.380, which feels more within reach. If 95% of Edgar Renteria doesn’t capture the imagination, then think of it as an outcome that should fall within the same ballpark of Erick Aybar’s offensive value. My favorite comparisons guard against my optimism (to a degree) that Hinojosa is a shortstop forever and always, and take a wider look at his long-term professional future. The two most logical career paths for him would resemble something like what Marco Scutaro (an all-time favorite of mine) and Julio Lugo managed to do in in the big leagues. A Scutaro/Lugo comp combo gets you to a .270ish/.335ish/.385ish type of hitter with a long career as a player capable of playing both second and third effectively (plus some outfield here and there) in addition to being able to hold it down at short. Maybe there will be flashes of putting it all together mixed in along the way like Scutaro’s run from 2008 to 2013 or Lugo’s from 2003 to 2006, but the real legacy of this hypothetical career path is in the steady yet unspectacular play and consistent professional approach to the game. I actually really like the Scutaro comp the more I think about it, so, if you’re the type that thinks throwing multiple comps out and seeing what sticks is a little too easy (I get it, it’s cool), then consider Scutaro my one official player comparison for Hinojosa.

(While on the subject of Hinojosa comps, here’s one from one of the best in the college business, Aaron Fitt: former Arizona Wildcat and current member of the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system SS Alex Mejia. That’s a really good comparison, and certainly more grounded in reality than a lot of my more optimistic guesses. I can’t quibble with it, though you can check the archives and see that I was never all that thrilled about Mejia — certainly not like I am about Hinojosa — as a prospect back in the day. I’ll counter his Mejia with another contemporary comp out of Arizona: Kevin Newman. This year’s class has an unusually high number of head-to-head prospect battles with seemingly very similar players, so it’ll be a lot of fun to see how pro teams go about differentiating guys like Hinojosa and Newman, Ben Johnson and Steven Duggar, Giovanni Brusa and Kyri Washington, etc.)

Thompson is a harder player to assess right now because a) we’re still waiting to see him at 100% and b) as one of the draft’s better prospects who isn’t a 2B/SS/CF type, he carries the burden of the needing his righthanded bat to do major damage and fast. I know comps aren’t for everybody, but I’ve always liked them for a variety of reasons. In the case of Thompson, I think the thought exercise of coming up with players with similar athletic backgrounds, physiques, and developmental challenges can be used as a jumping off point to help determine what kind of prospect we’re dealing with. If comps aren’t your thing, that’s cool; I suggest reading the following paragraph from my Miami preview a few weeks ago and calling it a day.

Outside assessments of his raw talent, physical abilities, and professional baseball projection aside, JR 3B/1B David Thompson is a really easy person to root for. Hey, I said I don’t root for teams, but I certainly root for players. I’ve not once heard a negative word uttered about his makeup, both on-field and off, and the hard work and perseverance he’s demonstrated in repeatedly battling back from injuries, including remaking his swing after tearing his right labrum in high school, are a testament to his desire to make it no matter the cost. The fact that he went down from surgery to correct complications from thoracic outlet syndrome in late March of last year only to come back to finish the season by mid-May (he even had a huge hit in their Regional matchup against Texas Tech) tells you a lot about his will to compete. Through all the ups and downs physically, his upside on the diamond remains fully intact from his HS days — I had him ranked as the 56th best overall prospect back then — and a big draft season is very much in play if he can stay healthy throughout the year. The bat will play at the next level (above-average raw power, plenty of bat speed, physically strong, plus athleticism, knows how to use the whole field), so the biggest unknown going into this season is where he’ll eventually call home on the defensive side. I’ve liked his chances to stick at third since his prep days; failing that, I’d prioritize a home in the outfield (he’s not known for his speed, but the athleticism and arm strength should make him at least average in a corner) over going to first, where, overall loss of defensive value aside, at least he’s shown significant upside. His strong showing at the end of the summer on the Cape is an encouraging way to get back into the grind of college ball, though he did appear to sacrifice some patience at the plate for power down the stretch. If he can find a way to marry his two existences — college (approach: 35 BB/45 K in his career) and Cape (power) — in this upcoming season (like in his healthy freshman season), Thompson should find himself off the board early this June.

Now to work backwards a bit to see what recent(ish) prospects Thompson can be measured up against. There have been a fair number of R/R former quarterbacks that have made an impact on professional ball in recent years. Josh Booty and Drew Henson were flops, though extenuating circumstances undoubtedly played a factor in each player’s development. The final word on Josh Fields’ career winds up being a tougher call because there’s little reason to call his career a success (getting bounced from the league at 27 is less than ideal), but he did manage to hit a little bit (.421 career SLG) in just under 800 lifetime plate appearances. If you can go back in time to 2004 and remember how we viewed Josh Fields back then, I think you might agree with me he’s a reasonable comparison for Thompson as a draft prospect. This Scout’s View (it looks like a broken link, but it’s there on the right sidebar) from the March 17, 2004 edition of Baseball America was written about Fields, but could just as easily be written about Thompson today…

He’s going to be a guy with power. He’s got bat speed and strength. He’s not making the kind of contact you hope he will in the future, but he hasn’t played collegiately a lot, and he hasn’t played in the summers to my knowledge, or in the fall (because of football). He’s basically played spring to spring. I think he won’t be a tremendous average hitter, but he will make enough contact to get to his power.

(Defensively), he just needs to continue to make improvements. I don’t see him needing to move if he works hard. His hands and feet are a little rough and his arm is erratic and no better than average. He’s got to work to stay there, but just being around him and knowing his makeup and work ethic, I think he’ll work at it. He’ll be adequate, and when I say adequate, you’re going to give a little bit because of the bat and power you think he’ll have.

As much as I’ll defend Fields as a better player than teams realized, a comparison to him knowing what we now know about his future reads more like a cautionary tale rather than a compliment. But much like comparing Hinojosa to Quintanilla, the comparison itself isn’t designed to predict a pro future but rather to demonstrate a similarity in perceived draft stock. Fields went eighteenth overall in 2004. A mid-first round selection feels like a fairly generous ceiling for Thompson at this point, though it’s not inconceivable he’ll play himself into that range come June.

Another R/R former QB that shares some traits with Thompson is former Clemson football and baseball star Kyle Parker. Parker went 26th overall in 2010. I currently like Parker more than most, so getting a bat like that who has a good shot to play third base (failing that, an outfield corner) intrigues me. Perhaps the best comparison for Thompson in terms of potential professional production is yet another former QB, Eli Manning’s backup at Ole Miss Seth Smith. Smith is a L/L guy, but his career 162 game averages of .265/.350/.450 with 16 HR, 30 2B, 50 BB, and 100 K look like attainable benchmarks (maybe a touch more power, closer to the 18-22 range) for Thompson as a big leaguer. With all college statistical comparison caveats in mind, join me in gazing at Smith as a Rebel (top) and Thompson as a Hurricane (not top)…

.338/.410/.473 with 78 BB/76 K (751 PA)
.286/.372/.434 with 37 BB/50 K (375 PA)

It wouldn’t be a major upset if Thompson closed that performance gap on Smith here in his junior season and went on to have similar success as a big league hitter. With average-ish defense at third, that’s a really nice prospect. Even if he has to play in an outfield corner (like Smith), he’d still hold considerable value.

DJ Stewart

25 Feb 2015 8:00 AM / 1 Comment on DJ Stewart

Ranking Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, and Alex Bregman in the top three of all 2015 college hitters isn’t particularly challenging. Coming up with a name you have some confidence in for the fourth spot is. Florida State OF DJ Stewart is the last college hitter I have confidence in as a viable first half of the first round, so he takes the fourth position for now. There are a few higher upside guys that will undoubtedly challenge for his spot (and those of Happ, Swanson, and Bregman, for that matter), but we’ll get to them soon enough. Today is Stewart’s day in the spotlight, so let’s get going.

DJ Stewart is an outstanding college hitter who, in my view, will very likely become a very good professional hitter in relatively short order. It’s never going to be pretty for a guy with a fire hydrant build and limited value outside of the batter’s box, but hitters with his kind of power/patience blend are at a premium now more than ever and Stewart’s stick is arguably as good as any draft-eligible college contemporary’s. I’ve mentioned it elsewhere, but comparing Stewart, both as a player right now as he begins his junior season (i.e., current tools) and as a draft prospect set to take off these next few months (i.e., potential growth curve), to Oregon State/New York Mets outfielder Michael Conforto makes way too much sense to avoid.

The two big questions currently facing Stewart pertain to his unique physical condition and his professional defensive utility. I don’t mean to be dismissive of the first big question, but…is this really something we’re still hung up on in 2015? I’ll resist the urge to make a bad jeans salesman joke here, but come on. I’d understand some of the hand-wringing if Stewart was an unathletic slug, but that’s decidedly not the case. Stewart’s build evokes the same kind of bowling ball vibe that has garnered comparisons to a pair of intriguing hitters: Matt Stairs and Jeremy Giambi. Physically those both make a lot of sense to me, but the comps go even deeper than body type. I could very easily see Stewart having the kind of career of either player. If we split the difference with their 162 game averages, then we get a player who puts up a .260/.360/.450 yearly line with 20 HR, 25 2B, 70 BB, and 100 K. A career that mirrors that of Billy Butler feels like a reasonable ceiling projection, though I could see that bumping up to something closer to Carlos Santana territory with a big final college season. Those are all really good hitters, so take the “reasonable ceiling projection” phrasing to heart.

Now we get to the question of defense. Conforto, last year’s best all-bat/little-glove college prospect, never directly answered any of the defensive questions that scouts had for him heading into his junior season. As June rolled around, there was still debate about his long-term defensive future. Baseball America noted that he managed to improve his “fringy outfield defense” enough to be deemed “adequate for left field.” I know others think his defense is underrated and that he’ll be more than fine in either left or right (probably the closest to my personal view); others still would rather see him give up the outfield entirely and remake himself as a first baseman. The Baseball America report splits the difference, which makes the most sense to me based on what I’ve otherwise heard and saw firsthand. In any event, even at his best, his defensive consistency leaves something to be desired; we knew that a year ago and we knew that on draft day and we know that as he is set to begin his first full pro season.

That leads us back to Stewart. Like Conforto, I think he can “answer” the questions about his defense much like Conforto did last year by continuing to hit the shit out of the ball. At the plate he’s a guy who is capable of better than league average on-base numbers and a steady run of seasons with twenty or more home runs. He’s a good enough athlete with impressive instincts to do a decent enough job of chasing down balls in an outfield corner while also swiping the occasional bag when a pitcher is caught napping. I haven’t loved the arm strength in my looks, so there’s a chance he’s locked in with the dreaded “LF only” tag, but, like Conforto, if he hits as expected then you’re still looking at an all-around above-average middle of the order regular. In discussing this year’s draft class with some pals who happen to be Phillies fans, Stewart’s name came up. I’d consider him as a “sleeper” for the Phillies first pick this year, especially if they look at him as the counter-point (i.e. quick moving, moderate ceiling, high floor hitter) to the Aaron Nola selection from last year’s draft. I bring this up not only because I enjoy giving a shout-out to fellow Phils fans when I can, but also because I think Philadelphia likely represents Stewart’s realistic draft ceiling at this point. The Phillies pick tenth overall this year. Coincidence or not, that’s the exact same spot the Mets took Conforto at last year. Now that’s some quality narrative symmetry right there.

Anyway, if it really works, I think you’re looking at a Stairs/Butler/Santana kind of impact bat capable of playing close to average defense in an outfield corner. If not, it could be something closer to the cautionary tale of the one-dimensional (yet still plenty productive when his head was screwed on right) Jeremy Giambi. Even if it splits the difference, that could wind up being a worthwhile late first round/supplemental first round selection.

Happ, Swanson, Bregman…and Youkilis

24 Feb 2015 8:00 AM / Leave a comment

It only makes sense to start at the top, so let’s get right to it. If you’re confused, check out these rankings from yesterday and things should begin to make a little bit more sense.

At this point, I personally see a clear line of demarcation separating the top four with the rest of the class. We’ll get to the fourth guy in due time, though you might have already guessed that based on the title above. The big three at the top should be no surprise since all have the chance to be above-average hitters at up-the-middle defensive positions. I don’t think there is a bad way to order Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, and Alex Bregman at this time. You can parse out the numbers, read every scouting report that hits the web, and see them as often as you’d like up close and personal (or on the tube), but ultimately picking a favorite from that trio comes down to personal preference (or bias, if willing to go down that road). The relative merits for each prospect are pretty clear and clean, though, as always, there is some overlap in each guy’s pros and cons. Happ is the tooliest and most physically gifted natural hitter, all of which adds up to giving him the most offensive upside of the three. Swanson is the surest bet to stay at the king of all defensive positions – well, prince might be more accurate since catchers still hold the highest throne* — and should hit enough to give you an above-average regular at shortstop. Bregman is the guy who will not be outworked – I’m always hesitant to cite makeup as a particularly meaningful selling point, but Bregman is a unique case – with the chance to play a really solid second base while consistently ranking in the top five at his position in OBP. The overlap for the three is considerable, as Swanson is plenty toolsy in his own right, Bregman has a well-earned above-average to plus hit tool, and nobody has a bad thing to say about Happ and Swanson’s work ethic, willing acceptance of coaching, and overarching desire to be great. Like all prospects, there are questions that will need surer answers before we start talking top ten lock for any of these players. Happ will have to convince a team he’ll be a trustworthy glove somewhere worthwhile (2B or CF), Swanson has plenty to prove with only one full college season under his belt and even less time actually manning shortstop, and Bregman needs to show that last year’s dip in production was more about bad BABIP luck in a small sample than anything more ominous that could create some doubt about his upside with the stick.

I’ve written and comped both Happ and Bregman already this season. I’ll try not to make a habit of quoting myself, but since Happ is currently in the top spot and I have to imagine that many missed my Cincinnati Bearcats preview published just three days before Christmas…

A switch-hitting Michael Brantley with the chance to stick in the dirt. That’s one of the ways JR OF/2B Ian Happ was described to me recently. I like it. Happ is a really well-rounded player with no tool worse than average who is quick, strong, and athletic. He controls the strike zone well (career 79 BB/67 K), swipes bags at a high success rate (44 SB at 81% success), and has exposure to a variety of different positions on the diamond. That last point is a little bit of a spin job by me, but I think he’s a talented enough player to figure things out defensively at whatever spot his pro teams wishes to play him. That’s the biggest — only? — question surrounding Happ’s game. A guy with the upside to hit .280+ with strong on-base skills, pop to hit double-digit homers regularly (20ish as a ceiling?), and the speed to swipe 25+ bases every season through his prime strikes me as a very valuable offensive player at any position on the diamond. I’d trot him out at second base for as long as possible because I think he’s got the hands, instincts, and athleticism to stay up the middle. If that doesn’t work, my next stop for him would be center. Others think he could work at third, an outfield corner (why there and not center doesn’t make sense to me, but what do I know), or even shortstop if given enough reps. That kind of positional versatility (or uncertainty if you’re the negative sort) brings to mind a fairly obvious comp: Ben Zobrist. Zobrist’s unusual place in today’s game — players capable of playing well at so many different defensive spots are a rarity, plus he’s a really late-bloomer who has exceeded even the loftiest expectations scouts may have once had for him — make him a hard player to comp anybody to, but here we are. Feel free to stick with Brantley as a possible outcome if you find Zobrist objectionable.

As for Bregman, my comp on him was a better pro version of Aaron Hill. That’s potentially a very valuable player. A new one that I’ve heard from somebody smarter than myself in the game since publishing the original piece containing the Hill 2.0 comp is Howie Kendrick. My Swanson comp is the one I have the least amount of confidence in, but I’ll repeat it anyway: the shortstop version of Brett Gardner. Just going off those comparisons alone, it’s pretty obvious why Happ, Swanson, and Bregman are all battling back and forth to be the first position player off the board this June.

One of the best reasons I have for keeping up the site year after year is the enjoyment I get out of building a larger scouting database that allows for player comparisons over the years that highlight individual growth and development. I have the terrible memory of a man twice my age or whatever animal is the opposite of an elephant (a bee hummingbird?), so I often forget that I’ve seen a player before unless I consult my notes first. This upcoming draft will be the seventh I’ve covered with this site, so you’ll forgive me if things start to blend in just a bit by now. This is all a long way of saying that both Bregman and Swanson have been on the radar for years, so it’s worth checking to see what kind of prospects they were once upon a time. Unsurprisingly, the two were ranked very, very closely here as high school seniors. Bregman, the “gifted natural hitter” out of New Mexico who was “talented at all defensive spots” who “wowed me with his hitting ability,” ranked as the 2012 MLB Draft’s 62nd best hitting prospect according to this very site. Swanson, the “good athlete” with “good defensive tools” out of Georgia, ranked 75th. The only HS hitters that fell in between the two of them are familiar names: Bralin Jackson, Ty Moore, Skye Bolt, Brett Phillips, and AJ Simcox. Jackson and Phillips have both flashed ability at the pro level (especially Phillips), and Moore, Bolt, and Simcox all will be in the top ten round mix this summer. The highest ranked hitters before getting to Bregman on that list still in school, by the way: CJ Hinojosa (7), David Thompson (26), Braden Bishop (51), and Rhett Wiseman (55).

(I’m not sure where else to put this in this already too-long missive, but re-reading my notes on Bregman as a high school prospect makes me really want to see him tried at catcher again. I honestly think it could work. It’s doubtful any team would have the guts to take him as high as you’d need to and then risk losing his bat with a position switch, but if he falls to the late first round or beyond then I think the risk/reward of such a move could be worth it. What I wish more than anything would be for LSU to throw him back there for a few games this year, but the odds of that happening are even less than Jonathan Papelbon getting a poem published in the New Yorker. I can’t help but think that Bregman was tried as a catcher sooner rather than later as a college player in an alternate universe somewhere and everything worked out as he became Buster Posey 2.0 and almost all of this post would have been rendered irrelevant as there’d be no doubt that Bregman would be the odds-on favorite to go 1-1 this June…)

Happ is the obvious omission from the high school tangent above. I completely missed on him, a fact that would bother me even if he didn’t play his high school ball just a few short hours across the state of Pennsylvania from where I currently sit. Not happy about being late to a guy in my own backyard, though I take some solace in the fact that there doesn’t appear to be much public evidence of anybody liking him all that much back then. I really like the Brantley comparison and can see the argument for wanting to make him into a next generation model of Ben Zobrist. The Zobrist comp got me thinking, which is always a dangerous thing, so then I began trying to imagine a Cincinnati player who can play multiple positions and all of a sudden these numbers emerged from out of thin air…

.330/.451/.511 – 81 BB/70 K – 45/56 SB – 489 PA
.358/.439/.533 – 80 BB/56 K – 63/74 SB – 831 PA

Top is Happ to date. Bottom is current Pirate and former Bearcat Josh Harrison’s career numbers while at Cincinnati. I chalk the similarities here up more to coincidence than anything, but you have to admit the similarities are striking. Happ is bigger, stronger, faster, and more disciplined as a hitter. His offensive upside is still considerably more impressive than Harrison’s, outstanding 2014 season (which may or may not be an outlier when it’s all said and done) notwithstanding. Defensively, the comparison might have some merit has Harrison has defied the expectations of many by working himself into a solid second/third baseman and a passable corner outfielder. That’s clearly something for the athletic and, in my view, more than capable Happ to aspire towards.

Now for a quick recess that demonstrates why I don’t post nearly as often as I’d like. I tend to think of myself as being a fairly focused individual, but once I get going down a baseball-related rabbit hole there’s really no coming back until I’ve at least fired off an email about my findings to my always patient brother. I wouldn’t say I’m easily distracted, but it all started with Happ, then Harrison, then another Cincinnati great…

.352/.491/.717 – 63 BB/27 K – 285 PA

That’s what Kevin Youkilis did as a junior at Cincinnati in 2000. That June he went UNDRAFTED. It took basically doing the whole thing again (.405/.529/.714 with 59 BB/21 K in 273 PA) to get taken with the 243rd overall pick after his senior year. He got $12,000 to sign. What’s craziest to me is that, bad body and an acknowledgement that less emphasis was placed on plate discipline back then aside, a guy could hit 37 homers in his last two combined years of college and still not crack the top 200 picks. I know the offensive climate was different, both professionally and in college ball, but a guy could be four hundred pounds and hit with the bat wedged in between his legs and I’d still advocate taking him awfully high if he showed power like that. Youkilis hit a homer in every 11.6 at bat those last two years at Cincinnati. That’s positively Ruthian…literally. It’s an apples and oranges comparison, but, as a big leaguer, Ruth hit a home run every 11.76 AB. Mark McGwire is tops on the big league career list at 10.61. That’s wild. Even wilder were McGwire’s junior season numbers at USC. Good gravy. The man hit .387/.488/.871 with 32 home runs in 67 games. He socked a dinger once every 7.8 AB. That’s the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard. Barry Bonds hit .368/.447/.713 with 23 homers in 62 games (10.7 HR/AB) as a junior. Finally, because I’m a native Philadelphian and I couldn’t find Ryan Howard’s college power numbers in my exhaustive three minutes of frantic Google searching, in three years at UCLA, Chase Utley hit .342/.401/.620 with a home run every 14.1 at bat. His junior year was pretty nasty: .382/.430/.689 with 27 BB/35 K (and 10 HBP) and 15/16 SB.

I know I said finally already, but, I’m a native Philadelphia and therefore required to subject myself to one of the city’s all time “what if” scenarios, let’s look at Mr. JD Drew. His junior season…

.455/.599/.961 – 84 BB/37 K – 32/42 SB – 317 PA

That’s a home run every 7.5 at bat. Eric Valent, the guy the Phillies got the next year with the comp pick for not signing Drew, hit .336/.430/.800 (36 BB/37 K) his junior year. That’s 30 homers in 57 games. One home run for every 7.3 at bats. For ERIC VALENT. College baseball used to be so weird.

Last one of these (I think): .463/.555/.879 with 57 BB and 29 K in 317 PA (9.9 AB/HR). That’s Buster Posey’s junior year. As a ridiculously athletic catcher (he played a solid shortstop in the series I saw him as a freshman) with minimal wear and tear on his knees. And Tampa still took Tim Beckham with the first overall pick. Alvarez, Hosmer, and Matusz were all defensible at the time, but Beckham was a reach then that has obviously grown into a massive disaster in hindsightWe know all too well that stats aren’t everything and Alvarez was a hugely hyped (deservedly so) power bat from a scouting standpoint, but his. junior line of .317/.415/.593 with 28 BB/28 K in 195 PA is dwarfed by Posey’s. A little nuts that in that head-to-head comparison there really wasn’t a ton of pro-Posey buzz at the time. Says more about what kind of player people believed Alvarez was going to be than anything else, I think. Wish my site had been around back then so that I could have Posey as the clear number one overall prospect. Alvarez and Posey weren’t the only head-to-head college hitting comparables you could have pointed to that season. Yonder Alonso hit .370/.527/.777 with 76 BB/35 K in 292 AB (8.8 AB/HR). Justin Smoak hit .383/.498/.757 with 57 BB/28 K in 295 PA (10.2 AB/HR). I’d love to watch a 30 for 30 on the 2008 MLB Draft. If they need a tighter focus then they could just keep in on that year’s class of college first basemen. Three in the first thirteen, five in the first eighteen, and six in the first twenty-three: Alonso, Smoak, Wallace, Cooper, Davis, Dykstra.

Last one for real (probably): Anthony Rendon got on base 51% of the time as a college player at Rice. A .510 OBP in 886 PA. Insane. He’s the only player listed to experience life in the BBCOR and bad ball era, and even then it was only for his final season. I’ll repeat: college baseball used to be weird.

* I’m not an endnote guy, but I really wanted to get back to this without further cluttering up what already figured to be a meandering train of thought kind of piece. All things otherwise equal, I think I’d actually argue that a shortstop prospect holds more value than a catching prospect, despite what we know about positional adjustments and scarcity. The logic is fairly straightforward: unless you’re 100% sure the prospect will stick behind the plate, you have to be prepared for a switch to a position that will almost certainly end up on the negative side of the positional adjustment ledger. Most (not all, but most) former catchers move to first base or a corner outfield spot. Most former shortstops, however, move, well, wherever they darn well please. Major League Baseball as we know it is a game of former shortstops. If you’re not able to hack it at short, the first moves are often to other positive value positions such as second base, third base, and center field. Given the choice of two otherwise equally talented big league shortstop and catcher, I’d take the catcher. Given the choice of two otherwise equally talented amateur shortstop and catcher, I’ll roll the dice on the shortstop. Goes back to the personal preference thing I mentioned earlier.

2015 MLB Draft Top Fifty College Position Player Big Board

22 Feb 2015 8:00 AM / 2 Comments on 2015 MLB Draft Top Fifty College Position Player Big Board

EDIT: Somehow I goofed on this and left out a few conferences when putting it all together. I’m not sure how many I missed, but I know that the Mountain West and the Atlantic Sun are both missing since both conferences have players that would easily qualify for any worthwhile top fifty. I’m not happy about the error and I’m a little bit paranoid that some relevant files are now missing from my garbage laptop (UPDATE: When I sorted files by name, some vanished from the display. When I arranged by folder [the default setting], they popped up again. I’m hardly a tech expert, but that’s super weird, right?), so fingers crossed that this update will come quick.

A revised top fifty would have Fresno State JR C Taylor Ward at 23, North Florida rSO OF Donnie Dewees at 27, Nevada SR 1B Austin Byler at 47, and San Diego State JR 3B Ty France at 48.

*****

I’ll have some words to actually go with this ranking up on the site either later today or tomorrow morning, but feel free to leave any comments, questions, and/or profane ramblings in the comments or via email. I try to read literally everything written by those smarter than me re: amateur prospects (BA, D1, PG, BP, Fangraphs, etc.) while completely avoiding any and all rankings, so I don’t have a great feel on where I stand with the consensus top prospect lists. That said, I’m not completely ignorant to to the goings-on of the world wide web, so I acknowledge that there’s very likely some pretty weird stuff here. I’ll do what I can to back it all up shortly.

As for the next few days, the plan is to write about as many conferences as I can as quickly as I can while increasingly short window of relevancy concerning the information I’ve compiled exists. Then I’ll make my usual lame attempt at trying to cover “The Others,” i.e. the best non-D1 college prospects from around the country. After that we’ll do some updates on the top HS prospects before finally circling back (around mid-season or so) to updating the college guys. I also want to throw in some lighter fare along the way — the follow list barrage of the last few weeks hasn’t been all that exciting, I know — so let me know if there’s anything less boring I can do and I’ll get on it.

Also, I did a Q&A right before the college season kicked off a few weeks back with Joseph Healy at the really solid College Baseball Central. Healy is exceptionally passionate about college ball and very thorough in his coverage of the game. He’s a priority follow for sure.

Finally, here are my top college position player prospects as of February 23, 2015. I actually put the list together two weeks ago, so nothing that has happened on the field so far in 2015 has been taken into account as of yet. The original list only went to 40, so my personal level of certainty takes a hit after the White, Holder, and Cheray group.

Cincinnati JR 2B/OF Ian Happ
Vanderbilt JR SS/2B Dansby Swanson
Louisiana State JR 2B/SS Alex Bregman
Florida State JR OF DJ Stewart
Michigan JR 3B/SS Travis Maezes
Florida JR SS/OF Richie Martin
South Carolina JR 2B Max Schrock
Texas JR SS/3B CJ Hinojosa
Miami JR 3B/1B David Thompson
Houston JR C Ian Rice
Michigan State JR OF Cameron Gibson
North Carolina JR OF Skye Bolt
Louisiana JR SS/2B Blake Trahan
Virginia JR OF Joe McCarthy
Boston College JR 1B/OF Chris Shaw
Florida JR OF Harrison Bader
Texas JR OF Ben Johnson
Pacific JR SS/OF Brett Sullivan
Clemson JR OF Steven Duggar
Clemson JR SS/2B Tyler Krieger
Missouri State JR OF Tate Matheny
Arizona JR SS/2B Kevin Newman
Campbell JR OF Cedric Mullins
Dallas Baptist JR OF Daniel Sweet
Dallas Baptist rJR C/OF Daniel Salters
Pacific JR OF Giovanni Brusa
Longwood JR OF Kyri Washington
Texas Tech JR OF Tyler Neslony
Maryland rSO 2B Brandon Lowe
Louisiana State JR OF Andrew Stevenson
Cal Poly JR 2B/OF Mark Mathias
Arizona JR 2B/OF Scott Kingery
Tennessee JR OF Christin Stewart
Georgia State JR 3B/RHP Matt Rose
Stanford JR SS/RHP Drew Jackson
Tennessee JR OF/LHP Vincent Jackson
Washington JR C Austin Rei
Alabama JR 2B/SS Mikey White
San Diego JR SS Kyle Holder
Missouri State SR 2B/SS Eric Cheray
Vanderbilt JR OF Rhett Wiseman
Auburn JR OF/2B Jordan Ebert
Louisiana State JR OF Mark Laird
Central Florida SR 1B/OF James Vasquez
Oregon SR C Shaun Chase
Oregon rJR OF/3B Scott Heineman
Washington JR OF/RHP Braden Bishop
Oregon State JR OF Jeff Hendrix
Virginia SO SS/3B Daniel Pinero
Central Florida SR 2B/SS Dylan Moore

2015 MLB Draft Prospects – SEC Follow List

20 Feb 2015 2:00 PM / Leave a comment

Louisiana State

JR 2B/SS Alex Bregman (2015)
JR OF Andrew Stevenson (2015)
JR OF Mark Laird (2015)
JR C Chris Chinea (2015)
SR 1B/3B Conner Hale (2015)
SR OF Jared Foster (2015)
SR C Kade Scivicque (2015)
SR OF Chris Sciambra (2015)
SR RHP Brady Domangue (2015)
SR RHP Zac Person (2015)
SR LHP Kyle Bouman (2015)
rSO RHP Hunter Newman (2015)
rSO RHP Russell Reynolds (2015)
JR LHP Hunter Devall (2015)
FR 2B/SS Greg Deichmann (2016)
SO OF Jake Fraley (2016)
SO LHP Jared Poche (2016)
SO RHP Parker Bugg (2016)
SO 2B/3B Danny Zardon (2016)
SO 2B Kramer Robertson (2016)
SO RHP Collin Strall (2016)
SO RHP Alden Cartwright (2016)
rFR RHP Jesse Stallings (2016)
FR RHP Alex Lange (2017)
FR RHP Jake Godfrey (2017)
FR LHP Jake Latz (2017)
FR C Mike Papierski (2017)
FR RHP Austin Bain (2017)
FR SS Grayson Byrd (2017)
FR RHP Doug Norman (2017)
FR OF Beau Jordan (2017)
FR C/1B Bryce Jordan (2017)

Tennessee

JR OF Christin Stewart (2015)
JR OF/LHP Vincent Jackson (2015)
SR OF Jonathan Youngblood (2015)
JR OF Derek Lance (2015)
JR SS AJ Simcox (2015)
SR C Tyler Schultz (2015)
JR C David Houser (2015)
SR 1B/OF Parker Wormsley (2015)
JR 3B/2B Jeff Moberg (2015)
JR OF Chris Hall (2015)
JR OF Derek Lance (2015)
JR RHP/1B Andrew Lee (2015)
JR LHP Drake Owenby (2015)
JR RHP Steven Kane (2015)
SR RHP Bret Marks (2015)
SR RHP Peter Lenstrohm (2015)
SR RHP Eric Martin (2015)
JR LHP Andy Cox (2015)
SO RHP Kyle Serrano (2016)
SO 1B/C Nathaniel Maggio (2016)
SO RHP Hunter Martin (2016)
SO 3B Jordan Rodgers (2016)
SO 2B/3B Nick Senzel (2016)
FR C Benito Santiago (2016)
FR LHP Zach Warren (2017)
FR SS/2B Brett Langhorne (2017)

South Carolina

SR 1B Kyle Martin (2015)
JR C Jared Martin (2015)
JR 1B Collin Steagall (2015)
SR OF/3B Elliot Caldwell (2015)
SR OF/2B Connor Bright (2015)
rSR C/OF Patrick Harrington (2015)
JR 2B Max Schrock (2015)
JR SS Marcus Mooney (2015)
JR 2B/SS DC Arendas (2015)
rSO 1B Weber Pike (2015)
SR LHP Vincent Fiori (2015)
SR RHP Cody Mincey (2015)
JR LHP Jack Wynkoop (2015)
SO OF Gene Cone (2016)
SO RHP Matt Vogel (2016)
SO RHP Wil Crowe (2016)
SO LHP John Parke (2016)
SO 1B/RHP Taylor Widener (2016)
rFR RHP Canaan Cropper (2016)
SO LHP Josh Reagan (2016)
SO RHP Reed Scott (2016)
SO SS/RHP Jordan Gore (2016)
SO C Logan Koch (2016)
FR OF Clark Scolamiero (2017)
FR LHP/OF Alex Destino (2017)
FR C Hunter Taylor (2017)
FR SS/3B Madison Stokes (2017)
FR RHP Brandon Murray (2017)
FR RHP Clarke Schmidt (2017)
FR INF Jared Williams (2017)
FR RHP Tyler Johnson (2017)

Alabama

JR OF Georgie Salem (2015)
JR 2B/SS Mikey White (2015)
SO OF Casey Hughston (2015)
SO C Will Haynie (2015)
JR 2B/RHP Kyle Overstreet (2015)
JR OF Ryan Blanchard (2015)
JR 3B Daniel Cucjen (2015)
rSO RHP Mike Oczypok (2015)
JR 3B/RHP Chance Vincent (2015)
JR RHP Will Carter (2015)
rJR RHP Jake Hubbard (2015)
SR LHP Taylor Guilbeau (2015)
SR LHP Jonathan Keller (2015)
JR RHP Ray Castillo (2015)
rSO LHP/OF Colton Freeman (2015)
JR RHP/C Mitch Greer (2015)
SO RHP Geoffrey Bramblett (2016)
SO RHP Nick Eicholtz (2016)
SO LHP Thomas Burrows (2016)
SO OF William Elliott (2016)
FR OF Jamal Howard (2017)
FR SS Chandler Avant (2017)
FR RHP Andrew Dipiazza (2017)
FR LHP Alex Watkins (2017)

Kentucky

JR RHP Kyle Cody (2015)
rJR LHP Matt Snyder (2015)
JR RHP Dustin Beggs (2015)
SR RHP Andrew Nelson (2015)
rJR RHP Taylor Martin (2015)
rJR RHP Zach Strecker (2015)
JR LHP Dylan Dwyer (2015)
JR LHP Ryne Combs (2015)
SR RHP Spencer Jack (2015)
JR OF Kyle Barrett (2015)
rJR C Greg Fettes (2015)
JR OF Dorian Hairston (2015)
rSO OF Storm Wilson (2015)
rSR 3B/1B Thomas Bernal (2015)
JR OF Ka’ai Tom (2015)
JR C Zach Arnold (2015)
SO 2B/OF JaVon Shelby (2016)
SO SS Connor Heady (2016)
SO OF Marcus Carson (2016)
SO RHP Zack Brown (2016)
SO RHP Robert Ziegler (2016)
SO LHP Logan Salow (2016)
FR RHP Zachary Pop (2017)

Georgia

JR 1B Morgan Bunting (2015)
JR C Zack Bowers (2015)
JR 1B David Nichols (2015)
rSO 3B Trevor Kieboom (2015)
JR SS/2B Nick King (2015)
SR OF/RHP Heath Holder (2015)
rSR C/RHP Brandon Stephens (2015)
SR 1B/LHP Jared Walsh (2015)
JR RHP/OF Sean McLaughlin (2015)
SR RHP Jared Cheek (2015)
rJR RHP Mike Mancuso (2015)
rJR RHP David Sosebee (2015)
JR LHP Ryan Lawlor (2015)
JR RHP David Gonzalez (2015)
rSO RHP Austin Wallace (2015)
SO RHP Robert Tyler (2016)
SO LHP Connor Jones (2016)
SO OF Stephen Wrenn (2016)
SO SS/2B Mike Bell (2016)
SO C/OF Skyler Webb (2016)
FR LHP Ryan Avidano (2017)
FR LHP Bo Tucker (2017)
FR OF Keegan McGovern (2017)
FR OF/3B Mitchell Webb (2017)

Mississippi

rJR LHP Christian Trent (2015)
rSO RHP Brady Bramlett (2015)
rSO RHP Jacob Waguespack (2015)
JR RHP Sean Johnson (2015)
SR RHP Sam Smith (2015)
rSR RHP Scott Weathersby (2015)
JR LHP Matt Denny (2015)
JR 1B Jack Kaiser (2015)
SR 1B/C Sikes Orvis (2015)
SR C Austin Knight (2015)
SO LHP Evan Anderson (2016)
JR OF Connor Cloyd (2015)
JR OF Cameron Dishon (2015)
rFR OF Peyton Attaway (2016)
FR SS/2B Tate Blackman (2016)
SO 3B/1B Colby Bortles (2016)
SO LHP Wyatt Short (2016)
SO SS/2B Errol Robinson (2016)
SO OF JB Woodman (2016)
FR RHP Will Stokes (2017)
FR RHP Calder Mikell (2017)
FR SS/2B Kyle Watson (2017)
FR 1B Joe Wainhouse (2017)
FR SS/2B Will Golsan (2017)
FR C Nic Perkins (2017)
FR RHP John Wesley Ray (2017)

Arkansas

JR RHP Trey Killian (2015)
rSR RHP Jackson Lowery (2015)
SR RHP Jacob Stone (2015)
rJR OF Tyler Spoon (2015)
JR 2B Max Hogan (2015)
rJR SS Brett McAfee (2015)
SR OF Joe Serrano (2015)
rJR 3B Mike Bernal (2015)
SR OF/C Krisjon Wilkerson (2015)
JR 3B Bobby Wernes (2015)
JR C Tucker Pennell (2015)
JR SS Matt Campbell (2015)
JR 2B/SS Rick Nomura (2015)
rFR C Carson Shaddy (2016)
SO INF Clark Eagan (2016)
SO LHP/INF Trent Hill (2016)
SO RHP Zach Jackson (2016)
SO RHP Dominic Taccolini (2016)
SO RHP Cannon Chadwick (2016)
SO RHP James Teague (2016)
SO OF Andrew Benintendi (2016)
FR OF Luke Bonfield (2016)
FR C Nathan Rodriguez (2017)
FR RHP Keaton McKinney (2017)
FR RHP Jonah Patten (2017)
FR 3B Blake Wiggins (2017)
FR C/1B Chad Spanberger (2017)
FR LHP Kyle Pate (2017)
FR OF Keith Grieshaber (2017)
FR LHP Ryan Fant (2017)

Vanderbilt

JR RHP Walker Buehler (2015)
JR RHP Carson Fulmer (2015)
rJR LHP Philip Pfeifer (2015)
SO LHP John Kilichowski (2015)
JR RHP Tyler Ferguson (2015)
JR OF/RHP Kyle Smith (2015)
JR SS/2B Dansby Swanson (2015)
JR OF Rhett Wiseman (2015)
rJR 1B Zander Wiel (2015)
JR 2B/SS Tyler Campbell (2015)
SO OF/1B Bryan Reynolds (2016)
SO C Jason Delay (2016)
SO OF/INF Nolan Rogers (2016)
SO RHP Hayden Stone (2016)
SO LHP Ben Bowden (2016)
rFR RHP Jordan Sheffield (2016)
FR 3B/SS Will Toffey (2016)
SO C Karl Ellison (2016)
SO RHP/LHP Aubrey McCarty (2016)
rFR OF/INF Tyler Green (2016)
rFR OF Drake Parker (2016)
SO OF/2B Ro Coleman (2016)
FR OF Jeren Kendall (2017)
FR RHP Brendan Spagnuolo (2017)
FR SS Liam Sabino (2017)
FR RHP Joey Abraham (2017)
FR RHP Matt Ruppenthal (2017)
FR RHP Collin Snider (2017)
FR RHP Kyle Wright (2017)
FR C Tristan Chari (2017)
FR 3B Joey Mundy (2017)

Auburn

JR RHP Trey Wingenter (2015)
SR RHP Rocky McCord (2015)
rJR RHP Justin Camp (2015)
SR RHP Jacob Milliman (2015)
rSO RHP Cole Lipscomb (2015)
JR SS Cody Nulph (2015)
JR OF Sam Gillikin (2015)
JR 3B/SS Alex Polston (2015)
JR 2B/SS Melvin Gray (2015)
JR OF/2B Jordan Ebert (2015)
JR 1B/OF Dylan Smith (2015)
SO OF JJ Shaffer (2016)
SO RHP Kevin Davis (2016)
SO 2B/SS Damon Haecker (2016)
SO RHP/1B Keegan Thompson (2016)
SO OF Anfernee Grier (2016)
SO C Blake Logan (2016)
SO 1B/OF Daniel Robert (2016)
FR OF/INF Hunter Tackett (2016)
FR OF Austin Murphy (2017)

Florida

JR SS/OF Richie Martin (2015)
JR OF Harrison Bader (2015)
SR 3B/2B Josh Tobias (2015)
JR RHP Eric Hanhold (2015)
rSO RHP Mike Vinson (2015)
JR RHP Taylor Lewis (2015)
rJR RHP Aaron Rhodes (2015)
SR LHP Bobby Poyner (2015)
JR LHP Danny Young (2015)
SO RHP Logan Shore (2016)
SO 3B John Sternagel (2016)
rFR LHP Scott Moss (2016)
SO RHP Shaun Anderson (2016)
SO LHP/OF Tyler Deel (2016)
SO OF Ryan Larson (2016)
SO RHP Frank Rubio (2016)
SO LHP Kirby Snead (2016)
SO 1B Pete Alonso (2016)
SO OF Buddy Reed (2016)
SO LHP/1B AJ Puk (2016)
SO RHP Dane Dunning (2016)
SO RHP Brett Morales (2016)
FR C JJ Schwarz (2017)
FR SS Dalton Guthrie (2017)
FR RHP Alex Faedo (2017)
FR C Michael Rivera (2017)
FR OF/LHP Logan Browning (2017)
FR SS Taylor Lane (2017)
FR 1B/OF Jeremy Vasquez (2017)
FR SS/3B Christian Hicks (2017)

Mississippi State

rJR 3B/2B John Holland (2015)
JR 1B Matt Spruill (2015)
SR C Cody Walker (2015)
rSR 1B Wes Rea (2015)
SR SS Matthew Britton (2015)
SR OF Jake Vickerson (2015)
SR SS Seth Heck (2015)
rSO OF Cody Brown (2015)
rSO OF Jacob Robson (2015)
rSR LHP Ross Mitchell (2015)
SR RHP Trevor Fitts (2015)
rJR RHP Preston Brown (2015)
rSO RHP Paul Young (2015)
SR LHP Lucas Laster (2015)
JR RHP Myles Gentry (2015)
SO RHP Austin Sexton (2016)
SO C Gavin Collins (2016)
SO LHP Daniel Brown (2016)
SO RHP Logan Elliott (2016)
SO 3B Luke Reynolds (2016)
rFR OF Joey Swinarski (2016)
SO RHP Dakota Hudson (2016)
SO OF/3B Reid Humphreys (2016)
SO RHP Zac Houston (2016)
rFR RHP Jacob Billingsley (2016)
FR RHP Jesse McCord (2017)
FR RHP Aaron Dominguez (2017)
FR RHP/1B Cole Gordon (2017)
FR INF Ryan Gridley (2017)
FR LHP Andrew Mahoney (2017)
FR LHP Paxton Stover (2017)

Missouri

JR RHP Alec Rash (2015)
rJR RHP John Miles (2015)
SR RHP Jace James (2015)
JR RHP Peter Fairbanks (2015)
JR RHP Breckin Williams (2015)
JR RHP Brandon Mahovlich (2015)
JR RHP Reggie McClain (2015)
JR LHP Austin Tribby (2015)
JR RHP Griffin Goodrich (2015)
JR 3B/1B Josh Lester (2015)
SR 2B/SS Brett Peel (2015)
JR 3B/1B Zach Lavy (2015)
JR 1B/OF Chris Akmon (2015)
SR C/OF Jake Ivory (2015)
SR OF Logan Pearson (2015)
SO OF Jake Ring (2016)
SO C Jack Klages (2016)
SO SS/3B Ryan Howard (2016)
FR RHP Bryce Montes de Oca (2017)
FR 3B/SS Shane Benes (2017)
FR RHP Tanner Houck (2017)
FR RHP/OF Zack Henderson (2017)
FR LHP Lake Dabney (2017)
FR INF/OF Trey Harris (2017)
FR RHP Liam Carter (2017)
FR C Brett Bond (2017)

Texas A&M

JR C/OF Boomer White (2015)
JR 3B/SS Logan Taylor (2015)
JR C Michael Barash (2015)
SR C Mitchell Nau (2015)
SR 2B/SS Blake Allemand (2015)
SR 1B/OF GR Hinsley (2015)
JR OF JB Moss (2015)
JR OF/1B Jonathan Moroney (2015)
SR OF Patrick McLendon (2015)
JR 3B Logan Taylor (2015)
JR 1B/RHP Hunter Melton (2015)
SR 3B/RHP Logan Nottebrok (2015)
JR LHP/OF AJ Minter (2015)
JR LHP Matt Kent (2015)
SO LHP Tyler Stubblefield (2015)
SR RHP Jason Freeman (2015)
JR RHP Grayson Long (2015)
JR RHP/INF Andrew Vinson (2015)
JR LHP Ty Schlottmann (2015)
JR RHP Kyle Simonds (2015)
SO RHP Cody Whiting (2015)
SO OF Nick Banks (2016)
SO RHP Ryan Hendrix (2016)
SO 2B/OF Ryne Birk (2016)
SO 3B/C Ronnie Gideon (2016)
SO RHP Mark Ecker (2016)
SO SS Nick Choruby (2016)
FR RHP Turner Larkins (2017)
FR RHP Brigham Hill (2017)
FR C Cole Bedford (2017)

2015 MLB Draft Prospects – ACC Follow List

20 Feb 2015 12:00 PM / Leave a comment

Boston College

JR 1B/OF Chris Shaw (2015)
JR 3B/SS Joe Cronin (2015)
SR 2B/SS Blake Butera (2015)
SR RHP John Gorman (2015)
SR LHP Nick Poore (2015)
JR RHP Jeff Burke (2015)
JR LHP Jesse Adams (2015)
SO RHP Justin Dunn (2016)
SO RHP Mike King (2016)
SO C Nick Sciortino (2016)
SO SS/3B Johnny Adams (2016)
SO RHP Bobby Skogsbergh (2016)

Clemson

JR LHP Matthew Crownover (2015)
JR LHP Zack Erwin (2015)
JR RHP Clate Schmidt (2015)
rSO RHP Wales Toney (2015)
rJR RHP Patrick Andrews (2015)
rSR RHP Kevin Pohle (2015)
rSR RHP Jake Long (2015)
JR RHP Brady Koerner (2015)
rSR RHP Clay Bates (2015)
rSO RHP Garrett Lovorn (2015)
JR RHP/3B Jackson Campana (2015)
JR OF Steven Duggar (2015)
SR OF Tyler Slaton (2015)
rSO 1B/OF Andrew Cox (2015)
rSO OF Maleeke Gibson (2015)
JR SS/2B Tyler Krieger (2015)
SO C Chris Okey (2016)
SO LHP Pat Krall (2016)
SO 3B/SS Weston Wilson (2016)
SO SS/2B Eli White (2016)
SO LHP Alex Bostic (2016)
SO RHP Drew Moyer (2016)
rFR 3B Glenn Batson (2016)
rFR OF Reed Rohlman (2016)
FR OF KJ Bryant (2017)
FR LHP Charlie Barnes (2017)
FR OF Drew Wharton (2017)
FR OF Chase Pinder (2017)

Duke

JR RHP Michael Matuella (2015)
SR RHP Sarkis Ohanian (2015)
SR RHP Andrew Istler (2015)
SR LHP Trent Swart (2015)
rJR LHP Remy Janco (2015)
rJR RHP Conner Stevens (2015)
JR LHP Nick Hendrix (2015)
rSR LHP Dillon Haviland (2015)
rSO RHP James Marvel (2015)
JR RHP/SS Kenny Koplove (2015)
rSR C Mike Rosenfeld (2015)
rSO OF Jalen Phillips (2015)
SR 2B Andy Perez (2015)
SO RHP Bailey Clark (2016)
SO RHP Karl Blum (2016)
SO LHP Kevin Lewallyn (2016)
SO C Cristian Perez (2016)
FR 1B Justin Bellinger (2017)
FR LHP Chris McGrath (2017)
FR SS Ryan Day (2017)
FR 3B Jack Labosky (2017)
FR LHP Mitch Stallings (2017)

Florida State

JR OF DJ Stewart (2015)
rSR 1B Chris Marconcini (2015)
JR 2B/SS John Sansone (2015)
SR C Daniel De La Calle (2015)
SR OF Josh Delph (2015)
rJR RHP Mike Compton (2015)
SR LHP Bryant Holtmann (2015)
JR RHP/OF Jameis Winston (2015)
JR LHP Alex Diese (2015)
JR LHP Dylan Silva (2015)
SR LHP Billy Strode (2015)
SO RHP Taylor Blatch (2016)
SO LHP Alec Byrd (2016)
SO RHP Boomer Biegalski (2016)
rFR RHP Andy Ward (2016)
rFR RHP Ed Voyles (2016)
SO RHP Jim Voyles (2016)
SO OF/SS Ben DeLuzio (2016)
SO 1B/C Quincy Nieporte (2016)
SO C/OF Gage West (2016)
SO INF Hank Truluck (2016)
FR RHP Cobi Johnson (2017)
FR RHP Andrew Karp (2017)
FR RHP Drew Carlton (2017)
FR SS/3B Dylan Busby (2017)
FR SS/2B Taylor Walls (2017)
FR C/1B Darren Miller (2017)
FR OF/RHP Steven Wells (2017)

Georgia Tech

SR 1B/C AJ Murray (2015)
rJR OF Dan Spingola (2015)
JR 3B/SS Matt Gonzalez (2015)
rSO 1B Cole Miller (2015)
SR 2B/SS Thomas Smith (2015)
JR LHP/OF Jonathan King (2015)
SR RHP Cole Pitts (2015)
SO OF Ryan Peurifoy (2016)
SO RHP Zac Ryan (2016)
SO C Arden Pabst (2016)
SO OF Keenan Innis (2016)
SO 3B/RHP Brandon Gold (2016)
SO LHP Ben Parr (2016)
SO SS Connor Justus (2016)
FR OF/1B Kel Johnson (2017)
FR LHP Daniel Gooden (2017)
FR RHP Patrick Wiseman (2017)

Louisville

JR RHP Kyle Funkhouser (2015)
rSO LHP Josh Rogers (2015)
rSO LHP Robert Strader (2015)
JR RHP/1B Anthony Kidston (2015)
SR 2B/SS Zach Lucas (2015)
JR 1B/3B Dan Rosenbaum (2015)
SR OF Michael White (2015)
SR SS/2B Sutton Whiting (2015)
SO RHP Zack Burdi (2016)
SO LHP Drew Harrington (2016)
SO RHP Jake Sparger (2016)
SO OF Corey Ray (2016)
SO 2B Nick Solak (2016)
rFR 3B/SS Blake Tiberi (2016)
rFR OF/C Ryan Summers (2016)
SO OF Colin Lyman (2016)
SO C Will Smith (2016)
rFR OF Mike White (2016)
FR LHP/1B Brendan McKay (2017)
FR SS Devin Hairston (2017)
FR RHP Lincoln Henzman (2017)
FR RHP Kade McClure (2017)
FR C/1B Colby Fritch (2017)

Miami

JR 3B/1B David Thompson (2015)
JR 3B/OF George Iskenderian (2015)
SR C Garrett Kennedy (2015)
rSO 1B/OF Chris Barr (2015)
JR OF Ricky Eusebio (2015)
JR SS/RHP Brandon Lopez (2015)
rJR LHP Andrew Suarez (2015)
JR LHP Thomas Woodrey (2015)
JR RHP Enrique Sosa (2015)
SO 1B/C Zack Collins (2016)
SO OF Willie Abreu (2016)
SO RHP/1B Derik Beauprez (2016)
SO OF Jacob Heyward (2016)
SO LHP Danny Garcia (2016)
SO RHP Bryan Garcia (2016)
SO SS Sebastian Diaz (2016)
SO 2B Johnny Ruiz (2016)
SO RHP Cooper Hammond (2016)
rFR RHP Andy Honiotes (2016)
FR OF Carl Chester (2017)
FR OF Justin Smith (2017)
FR LHP Michael Mediavilla (2017)
FR RHP Jesse Lepore (2017)
FR RHP Keven Pimentel (2017)
FR LHP Luke Spangler (2017)
FR RHP Devin Meyer (2017)

North Carolina

SR RHP Benton Moss (2015)
JR RHP Reilly Hovis (2015)
JR RHP Trent Thornton (2015)
rJR RHP Chris McCue (2015)
SR RHP Trevor Kelley (2015)
JR RHP Taylore Cherry (2015)
JR OF Skye Bolt (2015)
JR OF Josh Merrigan (2015)
JR 3B/2B Landon Lassiter (2015)
JR C Korey Dunbar (2015)
JR SS/OF Alex Raburn (2015)
SO RHP/SS Spencer Trayner (2016)
SO RHP AJ Bogucki (2016)
SO RHP Zac Gallen (2016)
SO LHP Zach Rice (2016)
SO C Adrian Chacon (2016)
SO 1B Joe Dudek (2016)
SO 2B/SS Wood Myers (2016)
SO OF Tyler Ramirez (2016)
SO OF Adam Pate (2016)
FR 3B/RHP Ryder Ryan (2016)
FR 1B/LHP Hunter Williams (2017)
FR SS/3B Zack Gahagan (2017)
FR RHP JB Bukauskas (2017)
FR RHP Hansen Butler (2017)
FR RHP Jason Morgan (2017)
FR OF/2B Logan Warmoth (2017)
FR RHP Brett Daniels (2017)
FR INF Brooks Kennedy (2017)

North Carolina State

JR RHP Jon Olczak (2015)
JR RHP Curt Britt (2015)
rJR LHP Travis Orwig (2015)
JR RHP Karl Keglovits (2015)
JR LHP Brad Stone (2015)
rSO RHP Johnny Piedmonte (2015)
SR OF Jake Fincher (2015)
JR SS Ryne Willard (2015)
SR OF Bubby Riley (2015)
SR 2B/3B Logan Ratledge (2015)
SR 1B/OF Jake Armstrong (2015)
JR C Chance Shepard (2015)
SO RHP Cory Wilder (2016)
SO 3B Andrew Knizner (2016)
SO OF Garrett Suggs (2016)
SO 1B Preston Palmeiro (2016)
SO RHP Joe O’Donnell (2016)
SO LHP Ryan Williamson (2016)
SO LHP Cody Beckman (2016)
FR RHP/INF Tommy DeJuneas (2017)
FR RHP Evan Mendoza (2017)
FR OF Storm Edwards (2017)
FR 3B Joe Dunand (2017)

Notre Dame

rSR RHP Cristian Torres (2015)
JR RHP Nick McCarty (2015)
SR RHP Scott Kerrigan (2015)
JR RHP David Hearne (2015)
JR LHP Michael Hearne (2015)
JR LHP/OF Zac Kutsulis (2015)
SR OF/LHP Robert Youngdahl (2015)
SR 3B Phil Mosey (2015)
SR OF/1B Ryan Bull (2015)
SR OF Mac Hudgins (2015)
SR OF Blaise Lezynski (2015)
SR OF Conor Biggio (2015)
JR SS Lane Richards (2015)
JR C/OF Ricky Sanchez (2015)
SO RHP Ryan Smoyer (2016)
SO 2B/SS Kyle Fiala (2016)
SO 2B/3B Cavan Biggio (2016)
SO C Ryan Lidge (2016)
rFR OF Torii Hunter (2016)
FR RHP Peter Solomon (2017)
FR RHP Brad Bass (2017)
FR RHP Brandon Bielak (2017)
FR LHP Sean Guenther (2017)

Pittsburgh

SR OF Boo Vazquez (2015)
SR 1B Eric Hess (2015)
SR SS/2B Matt Johnson (2015)
JR C Alex Kowalczyk (2015)
JR RHP Marc Berube (2015)
JR RHP Aaron Sandefur (2015)
JR LHP/OF Aaron Schnurbusch (2015)
SR RHP Hobie Harris (2015)
SO RHP Sam Mersing (2016)
SO RHP TJ Zeuch (2016)
FR 3B/SS Charles LeBlanc (2017)

Virginia

JR OF Joe McCarthy (2015)
JR 2B/3B John LaPrise (2015)
SO SS/3B Daniel Pinero (2015)
SR 3B Kenny Towns (2015)
JR C/RHP Robbie Coman (2015)
JR LHP Brandon Waddell (2015)
JR LHP Nathan Kirby (2015)
JR RHP Josh Sborz (2015)
JR LHP David Rosenberger (2015)
SO RHP Connor Jones (2016)
SO C Matt Thaiss (2016)
SO RHP Jack Roberts (2016)
SO RHP Alec Bettinger (2016)
FR 2B Jack Gerstenmaier (2017)
FR 1B/RHP Pavin Smith (2017)
FR RHP Derek Casey (2017)
FR RHP Tommy Doyle (2017)
FR OF/LHP Adam Haseley (2017)
FR LHP Bennett Sousa (2017)
FR 3B Charlie Cody (2017)
FR C/2B Justin Novak (2017)
FR OF Christian Lowry (2017)
FR 2B/OF Ernie Clement (2017)

Virginia Tech

rSO OF Saige Jenco (2015)
SR 2B/SS Alex Perez (2015)
rSR OF Kyle Wernicki (2015)
rJR OF Logan Bible (2015)
SR 1B/RHP Brendon Hayden (2015)
rSO 1B/LHP Phil Sciretta (2015)
SR LHP/1B Sean Keselica (2015)
rSO LHP Kit Scheetz (2015)
rJR LHP Jon Woodcock (2015)
SO RHP Luke Scherzer (2016)
SO SS Ricky Surum (2016)
SO RHP Aaron McGarity (2016)
SO 3B Ryan Tufts (2016)
SO OF/LHP Tom Stoffel (2016)
SO 3B/OF Miguel Ceballos (2016)
SO RHP Ryan Lauria (2016)
FR C Joe Freiday (2017)
FR 3B Max Ponzurik (2017)

Wake Forest

JR RHP/C Garrett Kelly (2015)
SR RHP Matt Pirro (2015)
rSO LHP Max Tishman (2015)
rJR RHP Aaron Fossas (2015)
rSR OF Kevin Jordan (2015)
JR OF/2B Joey Rodriguez (2015)
JR OF Luke Czajkowski (2015)
SO C Ben Breazeale (2016)
rFR RHP Chris Farish (2016)
SO 2B/OF Nate Mondou (2016)
SO 3B/RHP Will Craig (2016)
SO RHP John McCarren (2016)
SO RHP Connor Johnstone (2016)
SO RHP Parker Dunshee (2016)
FR OF Stuart Fairchild (2017)
FR INF Bruce Steel (2017)
FR 1B Gavin Sheets (2017)
FR SS Drew Freedman (2017)

The Baseball Draft Report

Yearly Archives: 2015

2015 MLB Draft Prospects – Connecticut

Ceilings, Floors, Tyler Jay, and Dillon Tate

2015 GB% Update

MAAC 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team

Ivy League 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team

Big East 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team

American Athletic Conference 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team

Travis Maezes, Max Schrock, and Ian Rice

2015 MLB Draft Top Fifty College Pitching Big Board

CJ Hinojosa and David Thompson

DJ Stewart

Happ, Swanson, Bregman…and Youkilis

2015 MLB Draft Top Fifty College Position Player Big Board

2015 MLB Draft Prospects – SEC Follow List

2015 MLB Draft Prospects – ACC Follow List

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