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Running 2016 MLB Draft Notes – College Edition

I’m trying something different this year that may or may not work. This is the time of year where things typically get quiet on the site as I work behind the scenes to frantically get everything ready with my final rankings. This year, however, as I update my rankings off the site, I’ll try to add a few words for each team about what I’m seeing as I’m looking at final regular season stats and my most recent scouting notes. This might slow me down too much to make it a viable option once we start getting to the biggest and best conferences, but we’ll try to keep it up as long as possible. I’ll also add some up to the minute rankings updates as we go. For example, my current top prospect at each offensive position is…

Jackson State C Carlos Diaz
Cornell 1B Cole Rutherford
Columbia 2B Will Savage
Nebraska-Omaha 3B Clayton Taylor
Long Beach State SS Garrett Hampson
Nebraska-Omaha OF Cole Gruber
Lehigh OF Jacen Nalesnik
Brown OF Rob Henry

My hunch is that none of these guys will remain in the top spot much longer (some have already been displaced as I’ve gotten lazy in updating the notes portion below), but it’s cool to see them at the top for now. I’ve got the Ivy, Patriot, SWAC, Summit, Horizon, and New York Tech, our lone D1 independent, finalized so far. The Big West was mostly done before I hit a snag that made me hit the pause button. I’m in the middle of the MEAC now. Two plus weeks to go until the draft…better get moving.

Updated to include the Horizon (forget to add those players to the rankings earlier) and MEAC…

Wright State C Sean Murphy
Cornell 1B Cole Rutherford
Columbia 2B Will Savage
Nebraska-Omaha 3B Clayton Taylor
Long Beach State SS Garrett Hampson
Nebraska-Omaha OF Cole Gruber
Florida A&M OF Dylan Dillard
Lehigh OF Jacen Nalesnik

Ohio Valley is now done. There are a lot of teams in that conference. With seven conferences done, here’s a look at the top three (five for OF) for each position…

C – Sean Murphy (Wright State), Tyler Lawrence (Murray State), Carlos Diaz (Jackson State)
1B – Keaton Wright (Southern Illinois Edwardsville), Cole Rutherford (Cornell), Zach Sterry (Oakland)
2B – Will Savage (Columbia), Mike Garzillo (Lehigh), Larry Barraza (Grambling State)
3B – Logan Gray (Austin Peay), Mandy Alvarez (Eastern Kentucky), Clayton Taylor (Nebraska-Omaha)
SS – Garrett Hampson (Long Beach State), Mitch Roman (Wright State), Mike Brosseau (Oakland)
OF – Dan Holst (Southeast Missouri State), Kyle Nowlin (Eastern Kentucky), Cole Gruber (Nebraska-Omaha), Dylan Dillard (Florida A&M), Chase Hamilton (Austin Peay)

Ivy

Brown

I had high hopes for Rob Henry, a FAVORITE, coming into the year, but his draft season has been a bit of a disappointment after his big sophomore campaign. Jake Levine intrigues me now that he’s coming off a second solid season. Austin French looks like one of the best arms the Ivy Leagues has to offer in this draft. Christian Taugner is intriguing as an upper-80s fastball guy who figures to keep getting better as his Tommy John surgery falls further back into his rear view mirror.

Columbia

Hello, Will Savage. His junior season has me going from liking him to loving him. I can’t wait to see how high he gets on the overall second base rankings. Higher here than anywhere else, I’d bet. Nick Maguire could get looks as a big first baseman with obvious power (above-average) and sneaky athleticism. Shane Adams and Robb Paller have hit their way into the draft conversation. George Thanopoulous could get some sinker/slider love.

Cornell

Michael Byrne is wild, but intriguing. Peter Lannoo has better stuff than he’s shown. The odds of Cole Rutherford being drafted by the same team that drafts his little brother are off the board; it would be more than a courtesy pick, as big bro can hit. Tommy Wagner catches my eye as an infielder who makes tons of contact.

Dartmouth

I’m 100% all-in on Duncan Robinson. He’s a big-time talent who seems to get better with every start. Definitely one of this class’s top senior-signs. Joe Purritano slide back just enough in his senior season that I’m now on the fence about him getting drafted or not. Thomas Roulis profiles similarly to Will Savage, but not quite as well.

Harvard

There’s not a lot here to love for 2016. Sean Poppen and Nick Scahill are both fine. Poppen has the more interesting scouting profile while Scahill has the better (yet more limited) peripherals over the years.

Penn

Tim Graul stood out both on the stat page and on the field (saw him close to a dozen times) this spring. Jake Cousins should challenge Duncan Robinson as the top Ivy League pitcher off the board. He’s really good.

Princeton

Cameron Mingo and Keelan Smithers were rotation mainstays for the champion Tigers in 2016, but neither made the necessary step from a draft perspective to earn serious consideration this June. Dan Hoy’s presence adds to the conference’s deepest position at second base.

Yale

Chasen Ford was an arm I had reasonably high hopes for coming into the season, but he’s continued his pattern of having underwhelming periperhals that are incongruent with his solid stuff. Meanwhile Richard Slenker made the leap from steady regular to potential draft pick with a monster junior season.

Patriot

Army

Ben Smith didn’t play in 2016, but he’s done enough offensively and with the glove to warrant some late round draft consideration. Kris Lindner can run some and has shown some on-base skills.

Bucknell

Joe Ogren can hit. Brett Smith can run. Danny Rafferty can throw. And Andrew Andreychik might have enough fastball (upper-80s at present) to make it worth seeing if it’ll play up in the bullpen.

Holy Cross

The Jon Escobar breakthrough has happened. The righthander capable of hitting 96 (90-94 sitting) missed bats (12.11 K/9) and got his control in check (4.50 BB/9, not great but a vast improvement). If it keeps clicking, he’s a big league reliever. Nick Lovullo had an odd season. He only hit .225, but bolstered his OBP with a whopping 40 walks. I’ve always liked his approach, athleticism, and reliable defense up the middle, so I’ll overlook that .225 (and the dismal 6/15 SB success rate) and keep him on my draft board. He’ll make a fine future Red Sox minor leaguer.

Lafayette

Michael Coniglio has no power, but his speed, approach, and CF defense give him enough of a pro skill set to to get a shot in the late rounds. I saw him over one weekend at Penn and came away pleased at his all-around game. David Bednar is a really good looking arm that has the stuff to keep starting in pro ball. Not every team may be sold on his size or delivery as a starter, but he’s got the arm speed, depth of arsenal, and demeanor to stay in the rotation.

Lehigh

We know what Mike Garzillo is by now as a draft prospect: real power, useful speed, a strong arm, and a “grip it and rip it” approach. It’s not my favorite profile, but there’s a place for it in pro ball. If Jacen Nalesnik could catch, he’d be something really worth watching it. As it is, he’s an outfielder with promise all the same. John Scarr can catch and his favorite thing about Lehigh is “definitely the chocolate milk,” so, yeah, you could say I like him. As a staff, the Mountain Hawks walked almost five batters per nine. More like Mountain Walks, am I right? Brandon Kulp could go down as the worst statistical performing pitcher to get drafted this spring. If not him, then maybe Kevin Long.

(Non-draft related, but Mark Washington had a 1.80 ERA despite walking 27 batters [with 24 strikeouts] in 45 innings. College baseball, man.)

Navy

There’s so much to like with this year’s Navy team. Luke Gillingham is the big name as the crafty lefty who has carved up opposing hitters for four straight seasons. When his current year (8.87 K/9 and 1.96 ERA) is seen as a “down season,” in some circles, it says something about his overall track record to date. I think he’s got enough going for him (85-89 FB, low-70s CB that flashes above-average, a much improved CU) that his plus command and deception will keep him pitching professionally for as long as he’d like. Seniors Sam Sorenson and Andrew Bartek have almost as impressive credentials, as do juniors George Coughlin and Kyle Condry. The position players at Navy are no less impressive. Robert Currie has speed, CF range, and a track record of hitting. Sean Trent has a nice power and athleticism blend. Leland Saile has two above-average tools in his power and arm strength. And Adrian Chinnery is an experienced catcher with a mature approach at the plate and a strong defensive reputation. All in all, it’s an excellent group.

SWAC

Alabama A&M

JT O’Reel is interesting as a middle infielder who makes a crazy amount of contact. Ty Russell is a first baseman with reasonable power. Both are 50/50 shots at best to get drafted, but at least that’s something. Same goes for big John Burchell on the mound.

Alabama State

How real is Dillon Cooper’s senior season breakout? Is he an older hitter destroying younger pitching? Or has there been real change in his skill set? That’s something somebody who has seen him play a lot more than I have will have to decide. From the outside looking in, I have no idea what to think. I lean towards the positive, but that could be my desperation to find any worthwhile mid-round bat than anything else. Alabama State has a boatload of pitching talent coming off of big draft seasons. I like Angel Alicea, the athletic two-way guy with a good fastball (90-93) and slider (80-82) combination, best of all. He’s put up some eye-popping (13.99 K/9!) numbers this year. Arguments could be made for Tyler Howe, Joseph Camacho, Hunter McIntosh, and Michael Tellado as the next man up, but I’d put sinker/slider standout Austin Bizzle right behind Alicea on my target list.

Alcorn State

Moses Charles doesn’t have much in the way of pop, but his above-average hands, speed, and approach make him a worthwhile senior-sign. Having a cool name doesn’t hurt either. Walter Vives is a decent catching prospect for a lot of the same reasons.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

A trio of Golden Lion bats have some draft upside (Michael Bradley, Joshua Williams, Jaqueese Moore) for teams willing to roll the dice on hitters who performed well in small samples. Jeremiah Figueroa, the highest upside arm on the staff, didn’t pitch at all in 2016 yet still could hear his name called based on the strength of his mid-90s heater. Anthony Bowmaker stands out as the best of a crowded group of impressive draft-eligible arms who took the mound for the Golden Lions in 2016.

Grambling State

There could be three infielders selected here: 2B/SS Larry Barraza, SS Wesley Drain, and 3B Daniel Barnett. Barraza and Drain were both on the radar heading into the year, but Barnett’s 2016 (408/.504/.647 with 34 BB/17 K) has been a revelation. Tanner Raiburn is a small lefty who has missed lots of bats with solid velocity.

Jackson State

Sam Campbell couldn’t build on a big sophomore season, but scouts who saw him and liked him then might overlook his down draft year. Carlos Diaz, a Miami transfer, has the defensive chops to stay behind the plate and intriguing offensive upside. Cornelius Copeland’s stellar junior season should be enough to get him noticed. Jevon Jacobs was a pre-season FAVORITE who remains one of my guys on the strength of his 88-92 FB, above-average SL, and considerable athleticism. Jamal Wilson can crank it up to the mid-90s. Jesse Anderson has a pro arm, but very inconsistent control.

Mississippi Valley State

Drew Wheeler and Arrington Smith were considered, but I don’t think any Delta Devils will be drafted this year.

Prairie View A&M

Angel Avalos and Shannon Washington appear to have the best shot to get some draft love, but I wouldn’t bet on either guy at this point.

Southern

Jose DeLa Torre is a hitting machine. Dondrayas Harris, Troy Lewis, and J’Markus George all also are in the draft mix.

Texas Southern

Ryan Lazo as a center fielder is interesting to me because of his plus speed (38/38 on steals this year), plus athleticism, and obvious ability to cover a lot of ground very quickly in the outfield. Ryan Lazo as a second baseman, the position where he played in 2016, takes that existing interest up another notch. Javier Valdez, Christopher Scroggins, and Richard Alamo give the lineup a few extra names with viable draft hopes to track. Robert Pearson has some middle relief upside on the mound.

Summit

IPFW

Greg Kaiser is a bat-first middle infielder with power, speed, and a swing if it’s close (or kind of close) approach. Brandon Soat has a chance for three average or better tools with his arm, speed, and raw power. Evan VanSumeren is a natural hitter who makes a lot of contact.

Nebraska-Omaha

There aren’t many senior-signs with the kind of thump that Clayton Taylor provides. The third base prospect can really swing it, but his skills go beyond his above-average raw power. Taylor has hit for three years running, has shown a willingness to wear opposing pitchers out, can play any of the infield positions in a pinch, and can even swipe the stray bag or two on unsuspecting batteries. I’d be rooting for my team to draft Taylor in this class. Cole Gruber will enter pro ball with two clear big league tools with his speed (43/50 SB this year) and CF range. I think he’s a solid mid- to late-round target. Tyler Fox’s decent stuff (85-90 FB, three usable offspeed pitches) could play up enough in shorter bursts professionally to hang around a bit.

North Dakota State

There are a lot of pitchers on this staff with standout peripherals. I think the most interesting of the bunch are Alex Rogers (upper-80s FB that he commands well), Brian VanderWoude (above-average changeup, good size), Parker Trewin (above-average slider, but one of the older players in this draft), and Sean Terres (another good slider).

Oral Roberts

I like this group of Oral Roberts hitters maybe more than I should. Nick Rotola is an intriguing potential utility player with a nice blend of defense, speed, athleticism, and contact skills. I’ve long been fascinated by Brent Williams’s upside as a hitter; his 2016 had good (.310 BA and .478 SLG) and not so good (.344 OBP after just 13 BB/33 K). Rolando Martinez has flashed some pop and on-base skills of his own. Noah Cummings has hit since first arriving on campus. On the pitching side, Kyler Stout stands out for his solid stuff despite a rough 2016 season. I’m also curious about two-way player Holden Cammack.

South Dakota State

Paul Jacobson and Jesse Munsterman are potential late-round senior-signs on the strength of their decent bats and up-the-middle defensive profiles. Andrew Clemen is in the same boat as a righthanded pitcher capable of living 88-92 with a pair of usable secondaries. Ryan Froom and Ethan Kenkel both might have to wait until they are potential senior-signs themselves in 2017, but each guy has shown enough in the way of pro stuff to get some draft attention sooner rather than later.

Western Illinois

Joe Mortillaro throws hard and with sink. Nick Milligan can match his 94 MPH heat. Preston Church does it more with deception and offspeed, but he’s no slouch in the velocity department as a lefty who can run it up to 91. I could see Adam McGinnis and Chris Tschida being handy pros to have around due to the fact both can play multiple spots on the diamond. I think both have more work to do offensively before getting their shot as 2017 senior-signs.

Horizon

Illinois-Chicago

Connor Ryan has more stuff than results. Jake Dahlberg and Trevor Lane both do the effectively wild thing well. I think I like Gabe Dwyer and David Cronin best among the bats, but could see the two redshirt-sophomores staying two more seasons each. Then they’d be the same age as current redshirt-senior and decent draft prospect Conor Philbin.

Northern Kentucky

Not much here. Maybe Logan Spurlin as a late-round catcher. Or Aric Harris as a late-round arm. Late-round is the common factor, I guess.

Oakland

Connor Fannon hasn’t pitched much in three years, but his size and breaking ball make him worth some late round consideration. I’ve long liked the approach of Zach Sterry, a damn good hitter with legitimate average or better raw power. Mike Brousseau has a ton of quality college at bats to his name; he deserves a shot in pro ball. By the way, I don’t believe the Oakland (California) A’s have ever drafted a player from the Oakland (Michigan) Grizzles. Might I suggest a late-round pick on Brousseau in 2016?

Valparaiso

This roster is full of players who are just good enough to get some draft consideration without having any one player anywhere approaching a draft lock. I actually have twelve draft-eligible maybes that I’m going back and forth on including in the final rankings. Dalton Lundeen is probably the best pitching prospect thanks to his size, decent velocity (85-88 as a starter), and long track record of success. I have Luke Syens, an outfielder on the roster who didn’t pitch at all this year, as having a low-90s fastball and average or better breaking ball in my notes. Assuming I didn’t just make that up, he’s pretty interesting if you want to go mega-deep sleeper. Josh Clark or Shea Molitor might be the best hitters, though I guess you could make a case for Jake Hanson if you’re a believer in small sample breakthroughs.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Eric Solberg is talented enough to play pro ball, but it might take another season of proving that at the college level first. Luke Meeteer is no longer afforded that luxury, though it shouldn’t really matter as his speed, pop, and patience all add up to a definite pro for me. Jay Peters and Brian Keller both live in the low-90s and should be drafted in the mid-rounds.

Wright State

I’ll say this about more than a few guys before June 9th, but Sean Murphy will become one of the draft’s best values the moment he falls out of the first round. I think he’s going to be a really good big league starting catcher for a long time. I kept that short and sweet for now because Murphy’s teammate Mitch Roman deserves some attention as well. Roman hasn’t received anywhere close to the same notoriety as potential first round teammate, but he’s still a really damn good draft prospect. He’s a fine hitter with above-average speed and a strong arm. There are some defensive questions that still need answering, but I don’t see why a utility infield floor isn’t within reach. The Wright State staff is chock full of pitchers with pinpoint control. Jesse Scholtens, Robby Sexton, and Jack Van Horn all have BB/9’s between 1.60 and 1.63. All are legit prospects, especially Scholtens and Sexton. I’d also throw undersized sidearming lefthander EJ Trapino as a potential late-round draft sleeper. Derek Hendrixson combines both traits – undersized with impeccable control – and could hear his name called even after missing the entirety of the past season.

Youngstown State

I don’t have a great feel for which Penguin(s) are on the draft radar, so put me down for Kevin Yarabinec as being the most likely to be selected. He’s got big league reliever stuff, but not the kind of track record of a typical draft pick. A team that buys Andrew Kendrick’s power could take a shot on him, but with two years of eligibility remaining he seems like a safe bet to stick around campus.

Independent

New York Tech

Joe Daru has hit for a fascinating blend of power and speed this year. The approach isn’t where you want it to be, but when talking late-round possibilities you can’t have it all. Louis Mele has the longer track record of hitting for power and a slightly more agreeable approach, but nowhere near the same speed. Both are definite maybes late in the draft.

Big West

Cal Poly

Justin Calomeni has a chance to be one of the fastest movers in this class. Slater Lee is probably a better 2017 senior-sign candidate than a real 2016 draft threat, but it could happen. Brett Barbier has some defensive questions to answer, but the bat looks good enough to give him a go in the pro game.

Cal State Fullerton

There are a ton of quality arms here worth watching on draft day: Chad Hockin, Miles Chambers, Blake Quinn, Henry Omaña, Dylan Prohoroff, Scott Serigstad, and Maxwell Gibbs. Offensively names like Josh Vargas, Timmy Richards, Tanner Pinkston, and Dalton Blaser stand out as the best of the bunch.

Cal State Northridge

Yusuke Akitoshi and Branden Berry both look like solid organizational guys who might just give you a bit more than that. Like Fullerton, there are a ton of pitchers here that should be on boards around the league. Conner O’Neil and Kenny Rosenberg are the best of the bunch. I’m finally ready to quit Spencer O’Neil.

Hawaii

I don’t want to talk about it. Josh Rojas was a disaster. Marcus Doi was a disaster. Josh Pigg was a disaster. At least Jacob Sheldon-Collins and Brendan Hornung held up their end of the bargain. Matt Valencia was the definition of effectively wild in 2016: 10.43 K/9  and 5.79 BB/9 in 23.1 IP led to a 0.39 ERA.

Long Beach State

The obvious headliner here is Garrett Hampson, a slick fielding middle infielder with averages (give or take) dotting his scouting card in all areas except power. If you really believe in him, there could be enough here for a decent regular. Even if you don’t, then a potential utility future seems like a relatively safe bet. Fellow infielder Zach Domingues has long been a FAVORITE for his outstanding approach, but even I have to finally admit that the power deficiency is going to be too much for him overcome as a prospect. College guys who walk twice as much as whiff will always hold a special place in my heart, dimmed pro future or not. Eric Hutting came close to getting a spot in the rankings based on his defense, but the bat just isn’t enough. Austin McGeorge is one of the better arms that nobody seems to be talking about. He’s got enough stuff – not great, but enough at 88-92 with an average or better low-80s slider – that a team that emphasizes performance (13.89 K/9) should take him sooner than the majority might expect. Josh Advocate, Kyle Brown, and Ty Provencher all could have done enough themselves to get drafted. Lucas Jacobsen is a new name for me, but he’s a lefthander with size who missed bats. I’m intrigued. Keep in mind that Long Beach’s home park plays huge; their pitchers may not be quite what they seem and their hitters could have a little more upside than they’ve shown.

UC Davis

There are a few names worth some draft consideration on the UC Davis roster – I have five if we’re being precise – but I think Cameron Olson is probably the most appealing. His power and arm give him two big league tools, but his defense and approach at the plate remain rough around the edges. I think it’s an overall package worth spending a pick on, but mid-round college catchers tend to get picked largely on the strength of their defense, an area that remains a work in progress for Olson. We’ll see.

UC Irvine

There’s not a ton here to love, but…I just realized that the Big West season has another weekend to go. Figured that they’d wrap up the same time as the other conferences even without a tournament of their own, but was very wrong. I’m pausing on this conference for now, though I think all of the notes from above still stand. I just don’t want to have to look up stats for all these teams again after they wrap up regular season play in a few days. We’ll come back to this in about a week.

UC Riverside

UC Santa Barbara

MEAC

Bethune-Cookman

I liked Demetrius Sims coming into the year. Still do, but now it might be best for him to remain in school for at least another season to further refine his approach at the plate. Nathan Bond is a fun potential senior-sign who has shown consistent on-base skills over the years. Clay Middleton is a steady defender behind the plate and a useful contributor at it; in a class awash with college catching, I think he fits in the mid-rounds for a team willing to do a deep dive into the MEAC. Same goes for Michael Cruz, certified hitting machine. Cruz hit at on in junior college and really didn’t miss a beat in his first year for the Wildcats. I’m very intrigued. Alex Seibold and Zach Olszewski both hit the low-90s with nice breaking balls, so projecting some middle relief on their futures isn’t out of line. German Hernandez won’t blow it by anybody, but he’s got some sinker/slider appeal.

Coppin State

Any opportunity I can get to tout the merits of a player named George Dragon, I’m taking it. It’s a tough profile as a first baseman/corner outfielder (maybe), but who am I to doubt a Dragon? Never seen a minute of Game of Thrones, by the way. John Kraft slugged .741 this year. He went from .383 as a sophomore to .328 as a junior to .741. Good luck with that evaluation, scouts.

Delaware State

Jaylen Zielecki has some interesting tools to work with (arm, speed, athleticism), but is probably a year away with the bat. Cameron Onderko was a preseason sleeper that never really woke up. I like OF/RHP Chris Gonzalez, a former Delaware State standout who hit pretty well at Mercyhurst after transferring this past year. Figured I’d give him a mention here since my forthcoming Mercyhurst section might get overlooked otherwise.

Florida A&M

I’m a big fan of this roster. Jacky Miles gives the draft yet another viable mid- to late-round college catcher who can stick at the position and give you a little something offensively. Marlon Gibbs is a great athlete with tons of bat speed. Dylan Dillard is a well-rounded corner outfielder with some thump. Undersized second baseman Alec Wong has always had a mature approach and steady glove, but added an extra layer of senior season pop this year. There are a ton of interesting arms, but no slam dunk draft picks. I like JoJo Durden best since he’s got the crafty level thing down pat. I really wanted to tout Brandon Fleming and his upper-70s submarined fastball and Frisbee sliders, but his senior season didn’t quite go as planned. Still a fun college story, so at least there’s that.

Maryland-Eastern Shore

Nobody jumps off the page, but Mike Escanilla could get a late look as a dependable defensive middle infielder with a little bit of bat and speed.

Norfolk State

Robbie Hiser didn’t pitch in 2016, but he still might be the Spartans best prospect. Guys with low-90s fastballs tend to be remembered even when they aren’t actually on the mound consistently. Devin Hemmerich is his top challenger as an upper-80s lefty coming off three stellar seasons. Denathan Dukes is the most intriguing position player prospect.

North Carolina A&T

I have Timothy Ravare, Danny Garrett, and Robert Peck listed as the maybes from the team that inspired this line from an email from me: “Just wrote up a prospect for a 13-41 North Carolina A&T team with a 7.26 ERA. Notable because that ERA led the team.” Rough year for the Aggies.

North Carolina Central

Andrew Vernon is legit. Good fastball, good slider, and great results. Love him as a mid- to late-round reliever. Alex Dandridge isn’t half-bad, either. James Dey was one of college ball’s most effective yet overlooked two-way performers. He’s a viable prospect as either a catcher or a righthanded reliever. Carlos Ortiz is probably the team’s best hitting prospect, but I’m partial to Ellington Hopkins, a 5-6, 175 pound do-everything utility guy. I’m already putting him down as one of my favorite players in college ball for 2017.

Savannah State

Charles Sikes can hit some. His power has gone backwards each year since 2014, but he’s still a draft possibility in this class devoid of big-time bats.

Ohio Valley

Austin Peay

Bats everywhere. I love this team. Logan Gray’s approach never took the step forward I was hoping to see (his sophomore to junior numbers are eerily similar), but he’s still so tooled up otherwise that he’s more than justified being a long-time FAVORITE. This class is dying for real third base prospects, so a raw yet highly athletic guy like Gray is very much welcomed. I like Ridge Smith a lot as a potential Swiss Army knife do-everything defensive prospect at the next level. He can catch, play first and third, and even hang in the outfield. Dre Gleason has loads of power and strength, two things lacking in this class. Garrett Copeland is one of the best second base prospects in the country that nobody talks about. He’s got nice speed, pop, and a sound approach at the plate. Cayce Bredlau (limited at bats in 2016) and Chase Hamilton both have shown enough athletically and over the years to warrant some draft consideration. Alex Robles is an underrated two-way player who is good enough to either play third or pitch at the next level. Jared Carkuff definitely has the stuff (90-94 FB, above-average 82-84 SL) to make some noise in the pros. I’m glad I gave myself unofficial space limits on this whole exercise because I could have gone on even longer about the prospects on this team.

Belmont

The top two hitters here slid back a bit in 2016, but still should get drafted based on their tools and overall track record. Tyler Walsh can really run and defend up the middle, but he’s a long lever kind of hitter prone to swinging and missing. If a team thinks they can tweak his hitting mechanics some, he could be a “where did this guy come from?” player in the pros. Tyler Fullerton has similar pop and a similarly inconsistent approach at the plate. I’m intrigued by Brennan Washington as a big arm/big power late-round gamble. Aaron Quillen has now had two years of excellent peripherals and solid stuff (88-92 FB) to go with it.

Eastern Illinois

Matt Wivinis headlines this squad. Armed with a solid sinker (88-92, 93 peak), a slider that flashes above-average, and a fastball he’s shown some ability to cut, he could be one of those late-round relief prospects who moves slowly and steadily up the pro ladder. I thought Demetre Taylor was primed for a monster final college season, but the powerful outfielder was more good than great. Still think there’s a home for him late in the draft somewhere.

Eastern Kentucky

Kyle Nowlin, Mandy Alvarez, and Doug Teegarden are three of the best senior-signs at their respective positions in the country. I’m fascinated to see how Nowlin’s high BB% and K% will translate to pro ball; maybe it’s a cop-out, but I think he’s either going to be a really good player or a total washout with little middle ground. Alvarez does so much well at the plate that I think he’ll make whatever team is willing to bet on his defense remaining solid at the hot corner very happy. Teegarden isn’t normally mentioned in the same breath as the other two, but as a reliable middle infielder with some pop and an approach that should translate well to pro ball, he’s a good one. Alex Hamilton is the best junior prospect on the team. He’s been hit around the past two years, but has kept his peripherals solid and flashed some nice stuff (88-91 FB, above-average SL) from the left side.

Jacksonville State

There are some interesting hitters here for teams that weigh performance heavily. I still favor Paschal Petrongolo due to his power, strength, and name. Gavin Golsan’s best running abilities could get him on the radar. Justin Hoyt has been the definition of effectively wild these past two years. His most recent year: 11.67 K/9, 5.00 BB/9, 1.00 ERA. Nate Sylvester loves whole numbers: 9.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, and 3.00 ERA in 39.0 innings.

Morehead State

Jimmy Wright had a small sample breakout in 2016. Alex Stephens is a good athlete with some bat speed at third base. Ryan Kent is a well-rounded outfielder with a solid approach. Those guys are the undercard for the impressive collection of pitching assembled at Morehead State. Matt Anderson is a favorite that proved this year he’s ready for pro ball. With a solid fastball (88-92, 94 peak), plus change, and an average or better breaking ball, I think he can keep starting in the pros. He’s one of the best senior-sign out there from both a stuff and performance perspective. Tyler Keele has a well above-average fastball (87-94, 95 peak) that grades higher than the velocity might suggest thanks to the movement he gets on it. With two interesting yet inconsistent offspeed pitches, there’s hope he can make his way to a big league bullpen one day. Patrick McGuff and Craig Pearcy have also flashed pro stuff in the past.

Murray State

Tyler Lawrence gets lost in the overwhelming amount of college catching in this class, but the ability is there for him to be a productive big league player for a long time. I buy the bat in a big way and think he has some sneaky potential star upside. Adam Bauer is an intriguing blend of power, approach, and steady, and at 6-4, 190 pounds he has the body to dream on. Brandon Gutzler has my attention as a small sample size superstar: .385/.474/.723 with 8 BB/9 K in just 65 AB makes him one of the draft’s low-key mystery men for teams that weigh performance heavily. Andrew Bramley has a good arm and stuff that can help him miss a lot of bats (12.70 K/9 this past year), but is crazy wild. If you think it can be fixed, then he’s on the board as a mid-round potential reliever. I have no notes on Tyler Anderson or Ryan Dills, but both young men have eye-popping peripherals. Good enough for an internet hack like me!

Southern Illinois Edwardsville

I love Keaton Wright. Nobody is talking about him because nobody (with very few exceptions) talks about players outside of the first hundred or so best prospects in the draft (not to mention that not many spend much time on Southern Illinois Edwardsville), but they should be. He’s on my current short list of best college first base prospects in this entire class. If there’s a mid- to late-round college first baseman that shocks everybody years down the line with how he lasted that long in the draft, he’ll be it. Admittedly the chances of this are low – we’re all looking for the next Paul Goldschmidt, but that might have been a once in a lifetime find – though that’s not a reason to quit looking. PJ Schuster, Connor Buenger, and Jarrett Bednar all have quality stuff, but all had curiously terrible draft years.

Southeast Missouri State

Of the many interesting bats on the Redhawks roster, three stand out to me. Dan Holst is the best all-around talent with plus speed, an average or better hit tool, some real pop, and just enough range in center to profile as a viable defender in all three outfield spots. His arm might be a little light for right, but that’s getting down to nit-picking territory. He’s a really good player. Garrett Gandolfo also jumped off the page for me. He’s crushed the ball in back-to-back seasons. Then there’s Chris Osborne. I don’t know what kind of pro Osborne will be (or if he’ll be one at all), but I can’t not mention a player who slugged .803 this past year. Of the six pitchers I have in my draft pile, I like Joey Lucchesi best. Big lefthanders with low-90s fastballs, deceptive deliveries, and senior years when they strike out over 13 batters per nine are easy to like. Clay Chandler, Robert Beltran, and Justin Murphy are all also worthy of a draft pick this year.

Tennessee Tech

Tennessee transfer Jake Rowland seemed primed for a big draft year, but never got the chance to get things going. That may have opened the door for another Jake (Farr) to overtake him as the team’s best position player prospect. The best prospect overall is probably one of Trevor Maloney or Jake Usher. Usher’s edge in control gives him the advantage, but it’s close.

Tennessee-Martin

Collin Edwards was a pre-season FAVORITE, but the redshirt-sophomore will likely have to wait another year or two to hear his name called.

Northeast

Bryant

I’m sure I’ve said it about three teams already, but this right here is my favorite roster so far. Matt Albanese has average or better big league regular upside and should be in the conversation with the second tier of college outfielders with a chance to sneak into the draft’s top two or three rounds. Cole Fabio is a FAVORITE who ranks as one of the better second base prospects in the class. Robby Rinn is a dependable bat with lots of the strength and power. I really like how he’s continuously found ways to get better as a player over the years. Dan Cellucci, Buck McCarthy, and AJ Zarozny are all reliable up-the-middle defenders who can give you a little something extra with the bat. Brandon Bingel has to be on the short list of any best two-way college player ranking. And even Zach Wood, a player not on my radar coming into the year, has found a way to do enough with the bat to give him at least a shot at a late-round selection. For those of you not counting along at home, that’s eight hitters with a chance to be drafted off the 2016 Bryant Bulldogs squad. Impressive stuff. On the pitching side, unless you really like James Davitt and his mid-80s heat and average or better changeup, I’d recommend waiting a year for future first round pick James Karinchak.

Central Connecticut State

We needed another good defensive catcher with a strong class in this college class, right? And another plus athlete with serious wheels in the outfield? Need another one of those too. The Blue Devils best two hitting prospects, Connor Fitzsimmons and Franklin Jennings, both fit the mold of what we’ve come to expect as this draft’s biggest strengths.

Fairleigh Dickinson

Logan Frati is a good enough arm to get drafted and hang around in pro ball for a few years. John Giakas had some sterling stats in his senior season swan song. Ryan Brennan has a cannon for an arm – he doubled as the team’s closer – and some interesting offensive skills. Matt McCann is an up-the-middle glove who makes a lot of contact and has a solid approach.

Long Island-Brooklyn

There are a lot of pitchers on this roster with enough stuff for the pros, but none that have put up the kind of numbers we’ve come to expect with a potential draft pick. By virtue of not pitching much (1.1 inning) in 2016, I guess Bobby Maxwell is the best of the lot. There are some bats worth considering late, most notably Tommy Jakubowski and Brian Lamboy. The latter appeals to me as any hitter who has pulled off a 54 BB/18 K ratio over his final two college seasons might.

Mount St. Mary’s

Not a ton here. I’d be stunned if they had anybody drafted this year, but Chad Diehl, Ryan Owens, or Tyler Post stand the best chance.

Sacred Heart

I really liked Zack Short coming into the year. I still like him, but selling a team on him would be a tougher task now that he’s coming off the worst of his three college seasons to date. It wasn’t a bad year, but just not his best work. I believe in him defensively being able to stick at shortstop and think there’s a chance his all-around offensive game is enough to potentially make him a regular. As promising as that is, Jason Foley tops him as the team’s best current prospect. His split-change is one of the better pitches in the class. Armed with that pitch, a solid fastball (88-93), and an average or better upper-70s curve, Foley could be a back of the rotation starter or late inning reliever.

Wagner

Austin Goeke and Mike Adams are both good arms that could do good things in pro ball. Goeke has the better size (6-5, 200), better offspeed pitch (above-average change), and better recent run of success (7.49 K/9 in 2016). Adams has a bit more present velocity. Offensively, Nick Mascelli and Ben Ruta have some utility player upside.

MAAC

Canisius

Jake Lumley and Anthony Massicci give this team a pair of middle infield prospects worth drafting. Iannick Remillard is a strong senior-sign candidate on the strength of a fastball that lives between 88-93 and a pair of worthwhile offspeed pitches (slider and split-change).

Fairfield

I don’t have any draft-worthy arms here for 2016, but there are a handful (up to five) of hitting prospects that could slip into the very late rounds. Among them I like Jake Salpietro best, though I’d be surprised if any Stags are drafted this year.

Iona

I have Matt Byrne and Alex Fishberg both down as possible picks, but both are pretty extreme long shots.

Manhattan

Joey Rocchietti and Matt Simonetti have pro stuff, but down draft years (the former’s peripherals were merely decent and the latter didn’t pitch) might necessitate a return engagement in 2017. Shawn Kanwisher, a guy I know next to nothing about otherwise, has such a good looking 2016 (10.47 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 2.57 ERA in 49.0 IP) that a team that knows more (and likes more) about him than just his stat line could be interested on draft day. I personally remain interested in Jose Carrera, the tiny potential utility infielder with above-average speed and more arm strength and pop than his 5-6, 145 pound frame suggests. Senior-sign first baseman/outfielder Christian Santisteban is one of my favorite late-round hitting targets.

Marist

Scott Boches, Graham McIntire, and Joey Aiola all have a shot to be drafted. All have their ups and downs as prospects. Boches has size (6-6, 200) and a good fastball (low-90s), but an inconsistent track record. McIntire is a good runner with questionable power. Aiola is a steady glove with speed and a patient approach, but is likely locked into second base.

Monmouth

Shaine Hughes is my kind of hitter. I don’t know how signable he’ll be as a redshirt-sophomore, but he’ll be higher on my board than anywhere else. I also like a lot of the hitters on this roster. Anthony Ciavarella, Frank Trimarco, and Ricky Dennis all have pro stuff. Ciavarella and Trimarco are both lefties with good offspeed pitches (CB for former, CU for latter), and Dennis has solid heat (87-90), good control, and intriguing size (6-8, 220).

Niagara

Hard to find a Purple Eagle with a realistic draft hope this year, though Michael Fuhrman’s power gives him an outside chance. Cody Eckerson is an undersized redshirt-sophomore lefty who pitched well enough this year to maybe get a little love from a numbers-inclined team.

Quinnipiac

Rapid fire takes on a deceptively loaded Bobcats roster. Joseph Burns, a St. John’s transfer, is a smart hitter with a big-time arm at third. Mike Palladino is an athletic center fielder with speed who has never been able to put it all together as a hitter. Lou Iannotti runs well – and not just for a catcher – and is a standout defender behind the dish. Matt Batten is another really good glove at either short or second with solid speed and a good approach. Rob Pescitelli has intriguing size and has hit consistently well over the years. Alex Vargas is a confusing prospect: mid-90s heat, small stature (5-11, 190), and wild as it gets (13.34 BB/9). Thomas Jankins doesn’t have that velocity (he’s 88-90), but the confidence he has in his three offspeed pitches makes him a damn fine mid-round prospect. Greg Egan, Justin Thomas, and Matthew Osieja all do just enough well to stay on the draft radar.

Rider

It’s all about Vincenzo Aiello for Rider. Now necessarily because he’s a sure-fire draft prospect – he isn’t, but his three-pitch mix (88-92 FB, 74-78 breaking ball, CU) and size make him interesting enough – but because it’s a relatively thin year for the Broncs.

Siena

Kyano Cummings intrigues me as a lefty with a plus splitter. Chris Amorosi has an above-average changeup. Bryan Goossens has flashed better stuff (88-92, 94 peak) than his results have shown. Fred Smart and Ryne Martinez are hitters with some promise, though Martinez’s 2016 left a great deal to be desired. I think the best guy here is Dan Swain, a really underrated outfielder with athleticism, speed, and considerable pop.

St. Peter’s

There’s probably not a draft-worthy player here. Rob Moore hit really well, so he’s got an outside shot. Jon Kristoffersen is a sure-handed shortstop with some offensive upside.

2016 MLB Draft – High School Outfielders

I don’t have a particularly compelling angle for how to discuss this year’s group of high school outfielders, so I’ll throw a few different ideas out to see what sticks. Hey, I suppose that’s an angle in and of itself. Love it when things work out like that.

Our first attempted angle focuses on the consensus top two high school outfielders in this class. There are some shades of the Austin Meadows/Clint Frazier dynamic from a few years back with Mickey Moniak and Blake Rutherford battling back and forth at the top this year (bonus points for close geographic proximity between the two prospects in each draft), but neither player fits the mold well enough to push the comp much further than that. Of course, as always, it turns out I’m plagiarizing myself here after writing this back in December

In 2013, we had Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier battle down to the wire to see which prep outfielder from the state of Georgia would wind up the first off the board. In 2016, we’re set to have Mickey Moniak and Blake Rutherford, both from California, go back and forth until June to see who goes higher. Forced narrative or something more? I’m inclined to say it’s more than former than the latter –considering it’s a narrative I personally made up mere minutes ago, that should make some sense – but suggesting that the two head-to-head battles run parallel in some ways isn’t crazy. Despite some internet comparisons that paint him as the Meadows, I think the better proxy for Rutherford is Frazier. Issues with handedness, height, and hair hue aside, Frazier as a starting point for Rutherford (offensively only as Frazier’s arm strength blows the average-ish arm of Rutherford away) can be used because the two both have really good looking well-balanced swings, tons of bat speed, and significant raw power. The parallel gets a little bit of extra juice when you consider Frazier and Rutherford were/are also both a little bit older than their draft counterparts.

The extra bit of youth isn’t what gives Moniak the edge for me, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. What separates Moniak at this present moment is his ability to hit the ball hard everywhere. Sometimes simplistic analysis works. The manner in which Moniak sprays line drives and deep flies to all fields resembles something a ten-year veteran who flirts with batting titles season after season does during BP. Trading off a little bit of Rutherford’s power for Moniak’s hit tool and approach (both in his mindfulness as a hitter and his plate discipline) are worth it for me. Of course, check back with me in a few months…I had Meadows ahead of Frazier for a long time before giving in to the latter’s arm, power, and approach (as a whole-fields power hitter, not necessarily as an OBP machine). History may yet repeat itself, but I’ll take Moniak for now.

I seriously thought the Meadows/Frazier comparison was an original thought, and only realized it wasn’t when I went back to my site to look up what I had written about Meadows back in 2013. Then the post with that excerpt popped up and I realized that thinking about baseball draft prospects as much as I do is driving me slowly insane. People don’t believe me when I say that I forget everything I’ve written as soon as I hit “Publish,” but it’s true. I have no memory of what I write. Drugs, alcohol, marriage? Nope, it’s been baseball that has ruined my brain. Definitely worth it.

Anyway, if we want to keep trying to force a “ghost of draft year’s past” narrative on this year’s group of high school outfielders, then we can add Billy McKinney as the Alex Kirilloff doppelganger and get a little closer to that 2013 trio at the top. I mean, it’s still not great but it is closer, right? Last year’s trio of Kyle Tucker (Rutherford), Nick Plummer (Kirilloff), and Trenton Clark (Mickey Moniak) kind of works, but there are problems with each attempted head-to-head comparison; Moniak as Clark has been mentioned elsewhere (ESPN, I believe) and that’s a good one, Kirilloff as Plummer is problematic in multiple ways, and Rutherford as Tucker just plain doesn’t work. A fun trio that matches up well (kind of) comes if we’re cool with going back to 2011: Bubba Starling (Rutherford), Brandon Nimmo (Moniak), and Josh Bell (Kirilloff). We’ve got the tooled-up overaged guy, the plus approach with a sweet swing guy, and the big strong corner outfielder/first baseman defensive tweener best known for his bat…guy. I suppose that’s the worst case scenario for almost all the 2016 prospects, but there are notable differences for each. Rutherford doesn’t share Starling’s rawness in any way, Moniak has a ton more experience (and scout exposure) than Nimmo against high-level pitching, and Kirilloff and Bell…well, they are actually kind of similar in a lot of ways. Actually, the Moniak and Nimmo parallels aren’t too far off besides the level of competition discrepancy. Check Baseball America’s pre-draft notes on Nimmo…

He’s an above-average runner when he’s healthy, which helps him on the basepaths and in center field, and there’s more to his game than just speed. Nimmo has a pretty, efficient lefthanded swing. He’s short to the ball and has outstanding barrel awareness, consistently squaring balls up and shooting line drives to all fields. He has a good eye at the plate and should be an above-average hitter. As he gets stronger, he could add loft to his swing to turn doubles into home runs.

I still believe in Nimmo as being a useful big league player, but perhaps the scouting profile similarities between the two ought to serve as a little bit of a warning for those already all-in on Moniak. Same could be said for the Starling/Rutherford tie-in, though that’s significantly less worrisome because of the latter being far more of a ballplayer than the former ever was; Starling’s issues weren’t simply because he was older for his class but rather because he was older and underdeveloped from a skills standpoint. Making up for lost time while learning the finer points of the game is hard work, but Rutherford’s actual on-field abilities should make the curve much shorter than Starling’s.

(Incidentally, I learned that we’re taken what a steep learning curve should be and flipped it to mean the opposite of the original intent. We talk about steep learning curves as if they note a difficult initial learning process, but a steep increase translates to a quick increment of skill. Wikipedia notes that the error is likely because of how we’ve taken to interpret the idea as climbing a hill. Climbing a steep hill is more difficult than attempting the same on a less steep version, so we assume a steep learning curve means learning something new will be tricky. Maybe this is all common knowledge, but I’ve been using steep learning curve wrong my whole life. If you’re like me, then you can at least walk away from this post learning something new…even if you think all my baseball takes are nonsense.)

Or maybe all of these forced comps are no more than false flags since, you know, comparing distinct individuals to other distinct individuals may not always tell us what we think (hope?) it does. I do, however, think there’s something to identifying players with similar physical traits, skills, and tools, and analyzing their respective career paths, at least on a very general, very preliminary level. I think we can all (mostly) agree that certain player types seem to succeed while others don’t, so there’s value in using historical data to see what has worked and what hasn’t. Besides Trenton Clark, Moniak has also been compared to Christian Yelich (source: everybody) and Steve Finley (Baseball America); I see a little Adam Eaton in his game, but Moniak is far more physical (bigger, too) at the same stage. One other recent draft name that reminded me of Moniak was this guy

He tied Hinch’s USA Baseball record by playing on his sixth national team, and scouts love his grinder approach and in-game savvy. What’s more, Almora has outstanding tools. The Miami signee, in one scout’s words, “has no issues. He’s got above-average tools everywhere, and they all play. He has tools and he uses them.” He doesn’t turn in blazing times when he runs in showcases (generally he’s a 6.8-second runner in the 60), but his game instincts help him steal bases and cover plenty of ground in center field. Scouts consider his defense major league-ready right now, with plus grades for his accurate throwing arm. With natural hitting rhythm and plenty of bat speed, [he] is a line-drive machine with a loose swing who stays inside the ball, relishes velocity and handles spin. He should have 20-homer power down the line, sufficient if he slows down and can’t play center, and a definite bonus if (as expected) he stays in the middle garden. He plays the game with both ease and energy and may have some projection left in his athletic 6-foot-1, 175-pound frame. The Miami signee is considered one of the draft’s safer picks and could sneak into the first 10 selections.

No comp is perfect, but as far as draft prospect parallels go, that’s not half-bad. If I’m alone on this so be it, but I believe thinking of Moniak as a lefthanded version of Albert Almora, the sixth overall pick in 2012, kind of works. Because we’re already up to five comps, what’s one more? A contact I trust dropped Ender Inciarte as a possible career path and production point of comparison for Moniak, assuming the power never really comes around. I see Moniak as a hitter just a tweak or three away from tapping into some of his average raw power more consistently, so anything in that 45/50 scouting grade band (12-18 HR) feels within reach for him at maturity. For all the comps thrown Moniak’s way this spring, it’s really hard to top the Yelich one. I think that’s one of the better comps of any prospect in recent years. I really like Yelich. I really like Moniak.

Another potential angle with this year’s prep outfielders is one that has been generally underplayed by the experts so far this spring. My sources, such as they are, have led me to believe that there is serious internal debate among many scouting staffs about the respective merits of Rutherford and Kirilloff. The idea that there’s a consensus favorite between the two among big league scouting departments is apparently way off the mark. This may surprise many draft fans who have read about 100x more on Rutherford this spring than Kirilloff, but I think the confusion at the top of the high school outfield class is real. I’d guess that most teams have either Moniak or Rutherford in the first spot; the teams that Moniak first, however, might not necessarily have Rutherford behind him at second. Kirilloff is far more liked by teams than many of the expert boards I’ve seen this spring.

We already ran down a number of the popular comps for Moniak, so we might as well give in to the same temptation with Rutherford. This has surely been a very painful read for the anti-comps crowd out there. My bad. As for Rutherford, the list of comps out there is impressive: Grady Sizemore (Fangraphs), Jim Edmonds (Baseball America), David Justice (swing only from Perfect Game), and Trot Nixon (I forget) are just a few of the big names tossed around this spring. I’ve likened Rutherford to a remixed version of both Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier in the past, and I think there’s a chance that he might wind up as a player who has the best qualities of both of his soon-to-be fellow minor league outfield prospects. One fun outside the box comp that I heard recently was a young, lefthanded version of Moises Alou. It’s not totally crazy. Here are some of the old Alou scouting reports I could dig up…

1990: “All tools above. Good hitting approach – with power. Not good base stealer – as yet. Great body for speed and power. Good stroke – stays inside ball. Very strong arm. Confident young man…plus tools. Good outfielder. Future All Star…perhaps not in CF but in RF. Would exhaust CF first.”

1992: 7 hit, 6 power, 6 speed, 5 arm, 7 glove, 6 range “Good young player. Live body, All Star potential. Good contact type. 10-15 HR. SB potential 20-25. Everyday OF.”

Funny that 6 power meant 10-15 home runs to that one scout (doubly so when we remember the offensive environment at the time), but grades aren’t as easily translated as the bigger publications who push grading every prospect in every tool because that’s the only way to cover minor league prospects would have you think. Did that get a little ranty? Whoops. Anyway, I think a lot of those grades and notes on Alou could be very easily be lifted instead from a report on Rutherford. His upside is that of a consistently above-average offensive regular outfielder while defensively being capable of either hanging in center for a bit (a few years of average glove work out there would be nice) or excelling in an outfield corner (making this switch early could take a tiny bit of pressure off him as he adjusts to pro pitching). His floor, like almost all high school hitters, is AA bat with holes in his swing that are exploited by savvier arms.

It’s really hard to break down two different high school hitters from two different coasts, but I’ll do my best with what I have to compare Rutherford and Kirilloff. This is hardly a definitive take because, like just about any of my evaluations, I’m just one guy making one final call based on various inputs unique to the information I have on hand. I’m not a scout; I’m just a guy who pretends to know things on the internet. I give Kirilloff the slight edge in raw power, a definite arm strength advantage, and a very narrow lead in bat speed. Rutherford has the better swing (very close call), defensive upside (his decent chance to stay in center for a few years trumps Kirilloff’s average corner outfield/plus first base grades), and hit tool. The two are very close when it comes to approach (both plate discipline and ability to drive it to all fields), athleticism (another slight lean Rutherford, but Kirilloff is underrated here), and foot speed. I actually had Kirilloff ahead by a hair going into the NHSI, but Rutherford’s run of fantastic plate appearances on day two were too much to ignore. Both are great prospects and very much worth top half of the first round selections. I can’t wait to see how high they wind up on my final board.

Another solid hook here could have been the rise of the ultra-athletic late-first round helium outfield prospect. We’re talking Brandon Marsh, Taylor Trammel, Connor Capel, Hunter Bishop, John Flowers, Khalil Lee, and Thomas Jones are all outstanding athletes who should begin getting interest from teams beginning around pick twenty to twenty-five. There’s a decent chance that all of those guys are off the board by the end of the second round. Ten prep outfielders were taken in the first two rounds last year (the average is around 8.5 HS OF taken in the top two rounds since 2009), so expecting something similar (the seven I named plus the big three at the top) is well within the realm of possibility. Will Benson (who some still think of as the third member of the prep OF Big Three over Kirilloff), Akil Baddoo (all he does is hit), Jared Shelby (very little buzz about him this spring, but I like him), Avery Tuck (it only takes one team to still believe…), Chase Creek (burner who probably deserves to be on the athlete list), and Josh Stephen (solid all over, especially at the plate) all are candidates to crash the top two round party as well. This leaves out players like Garrett Hodges (love the hit tool), Dylan Carlson (fast-rising bat I’ve heard called a “second round version of Kirilloff”), Francisco Del Valle (big power), Dean Looney (more big power), and Trevyne Carter (another great athlete), not to mention the usual handful of high school athletes at other spots who get called as outfielders on draft day right off the bat.

If we stick with the idea that Moniak, Rutherford, and Kirilloff (in whatever order you like) are the Big Three this year, then that opens the door to all kinds of fun names to lay claim to the fourth spot. My current lean is Brandon Marsh, the highly athletic plus to plus-plus runner out of Georgia. We know he’s got four average or better tools (you can add a plus arm, average or better raw power, and easy center field range to his hot wheels), but, like many prospects of his ilk, we don’t know how his bat will play against professional pitching. Between the swing, the bat speed, and his approach to date, there are lots of encouraging signs, so gambling you at least get an average-ish hit tool out of him seems more than fair. Combined with his other tools, that player is a potential monster. Everything said about Marsh can also be said about Taylor Trammel, minus the arm strength accolades. Trammel can run and defend with the best in his class, but his arm is inconsistent at best. One thing I really like about him is how real his progression has felt this past calendar year. There’s been no surge in buzz about him throughout the spring; instead, it’s been a slow and steady build, as many scouts have noted that the average grades on his sheet have morphed into above-average to plus marks over the course of his final season. Yet another Georgia high school prospect, Will Benson, is currently sandwiched between the two on my rankings. I never really got the Jason Heyward comp for Benson – the most Heyward thing about Heyward is his plus defense, something that Benson is a long way from, if he ever gets there at all – but I like the connection between him and Kyle Lewis. I don’t think he lasts until the second, but he would make for an excellent consolation prize for a team picking at the top of the first round that misses out on the Mercer star with their first pick. Or just grab them both and begin hoping that you’ve just taken care of your outfield corners for the next decade.

You know what? We could have just made this whole thing about California and Georgia. We’ve covered the two big California guys at the top and the preceding paragraph is all about three Georgia boys in a row. And now here I am ready to spend a little time with Akil Baddoo and Garrett Hodges. My list isn’t finalized just yet, but the first draft has six of the first seven and ten of the first fourteen high school outfielders in this class being from either CA or GA. I firmly believe in Baddoo’s bat. I also believe in Baddo because of a David Rawnsley (Perfect Game) comp from earlier this spring. He dropped a Rondell White on Baddo’s game. White was the first prospect that I ever truly loved. Seven-year-old me saw him play during the summer of 1993 for the Harrisburg Senators. His presence on the field was so striking that I instantly became hooked on the fun behind following prospects, tracking player development, and cheering teams on who were committed to building through the farm system. White gave me hope as a baseball fan that the next big thing was always just around the corner. As for Hodges, well, I don’t know if I’m out on an island with him at this point or what, but I firmly believe that he’ll hit. Bat-first prep prospects are tough to love, but I really, really like Hodges.

*****

OF Akil Baddoo (Salem HS, Georgia)
OF Aldrich De Jongh (Trinity Christian Academy, Florida)
OF Alvaro Valdez (Westminster Christian HS, Florida)
OF Andre Nnebe (St. Mary’s HS, California)
OF Avery Tuck (Steele Canyon HS, California)
OF Bailin Markridge (O’Connor HS, Arizona)
OF Ben Lewis (Horizon HS, Arizona)
OF Blake Rutherford (Chaminade Prep HS, California)
OF Brad Demco (Lake Travis HS, Texas)
OF Brandon Marsh (Buford HS, Georgia)
OF Brock Anderson (Sparkman HS, Alabama)
OF Brock Howard (Harmony HS, Florida)
OF Caleb Green (Metter HS, Georgia)
OF Cameron Blake (Round Rock HS, Texas)
OF Chase Cheek (Phillips HS, Florida)
OF Chase Murray (Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy, Ohio)
OF Chavez Young (Faith Baptist Academy, Florida)
OF Christian Long (Westside HS, Texas)
OF Christian Moya (South Hills HS, California)
OF Clayton Keyes (Bishop Carroll HS, Alberta)
OF Colin Brophy (Notre Dame HS, California)
OF Connor Capel (Seven Lakes HS, Texas)
OF Dalton Griffin (South Effingham HS, Georgia)
OF Dante Baldelli (Bishop Hendricken HS, Rhode Island)
OF Dean Looney (Butler HS, North Carolina)
OF Denilson Elligson (Graceville HS, Florida)
OF Dominic Clementi (Arrowhead HS, Wisconsin)
OF Dominic Fletcher (Cypress HS, California)
OF Donnie Gleneski (Bishop Kenny HS, Florida)
OF Dylan Hirsch (El Camino Real HS, California)
OF EP Reese (North Davidson HS, North Carolina)
OF Eric Rivera (Flanagan HS, Florida)
OF Francisco Del Valle (PR Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
OF Gabe Simons (Ada HS, Oklahoma
OF Garrett Hodges (South Effingham HS, Georgia)
OF Hunter Bishop (Serra HS, California)
OF Hunter Judd (Knoxville Catholic HS, Tennessee)
OF Jack Suwinski (Taft HS, Illinois)
OF Jacob Hirsh (O’Dea HS, Washington)
OF Jake Suddleson (Harvard-Westlake HS, California)
OF Jalen Harrison (St. Anne’s-Belfield HS, Virginia)
OF Jaren Shelby (Tates Creek HS, Kentucky)
OF Jarrett Finger (Grandview HS, Colorado)
OF Jeremy Ydens (St. Francis HS, California)
OF Jerrette Lee (Columbus HS, Georgia)
OF Joe Acker (Marquette University HS, Wisconsin)
OF Joe Faulkner (Cumberland Gap HS, Tennessee)
OF Jordan McFarland (Waterloo HS, Illinois)
OF Jordan Wiley (Richland HS, Texas)
OF Jose Layer (Colegio Angel David, Puerto Rico)
OF Josh Stephen (Mater Dei HS, California)
OF Juan Carlos Abreu (Winter Springs HS, Florida
OF Kace Massner (Burlington Community HS, Iowa)
OF Kameron Misner (Poplar Bluff HS, Missouri
OF Keegan Snowbarger (St. Xavier HS, Kentucky)
OF Keenan Bell (Episcopal HS, Florida)
OF Kingsley Ballao (Maui HS, Hawaii)
OF Kobi Owen (Episcopal HS, Texas)
OF Kobie Taylor (Portsmouth HS, New Hampshire)
OF Landon Silver (Huntington Beach HS, California)
OF Langston Watkins (Louisville Male HS, Kentucky)
OF Luke Lalumia (Grand Ledge HS, Michigan)
OF Marcus Mack (Bellaire HS, Texas)
OF Mason Nadeau (North Penn HS, Pennsylvania)
OF Matthew Fraizer (Clovis North HS, California)
OF Michael Farley (Chico HS, California)
OF Michael Wilson (Colonia HS, New Jersey)
OF Mickey Moniak (La Costa Canyon HS, California)
OF Nick Howie (Garth Webb SS, Ontario)
OF Nick Neville (IMG Academy, Florida)
OF Nick Wilhite (Buford HS, Georgia)
OF Nikolas Dague (Sickles HS, Florida)
OF Otis Statum (Bishop O’Dowd HS, California)
OF Preston Jones (Mountain View HS, Washington)
OF Quin Cotton (Regis Jesuit HS, Colorado)
OF Raymond Hernandez (Fernando Ledesma Continuation, Puerto Rico)
OF Raymond Salaman (Luis Hernaiz Verone HS, Puerto Rico)
OF Robert Bullard (Thurgood Marshall HS, Texas)
OF Ronald Washington (Ridge Point HS, Texas)
OF Ryan Brown (St. James HS, Maryland)
OF Ryan Mejia (Alonso HS, Florida)
OF Ryan Novis (Corona Del Sol HS, Arizona)
OF Spencer Taylor (Trinity Christian Academy, Florida)
OF Taylor Trammel (Mount Paran Christian HS, Georgia)
OF Ted Sabato (Brunswick HS, New York)
OF Terence Norman (Kennesaw Mountain HS, Georgia)
OF Thomas Jones (Laurens District 55 HS, South Carolina)
OF Todd Lott (Trinity Christian Academy, Florida)
OF Tony Schultz (Saints Peter and Paul HS, Maryland)
OF Trace Bucey (Carroll HS, Texas)
OF Tre Turner (Holy Cross HS, Louisiana)
OF Tremaine Spears (Tioga HS, Louisiana)
OF Trevyne Carter (Soddy Daisy HS, Tennessee)
OF Troy Johnston (Rogers HS, Washington)
OF Wyatt Featherston (Green Mountain HS, Colorado)
OF/1B Alex Kirilloff (Plum HS, Pennsylvania)
OF/1B Dylan Carlson (Elk Grove HS, California)
OF/1B Will Benson (The Westminster Schools, Georgia)
OF/3B Armani Smith (De La Salle HS, California)
OF/3B Matthew Gorski (Hamilton Southeastern HS, Indiana)
OF/LHP Austin Langworthy (Williston HS, Florida)
OF/LHP Carter Nelson (Jenks HS, Oklahoma)
OF/LHP Khalil Lee (Flint Hill HS, Virginia)
OF/LHP Kyle Stowers (Christian HS, California)
OF/RHP Brandon Fraley (Caravel Academy, Delaware)
OF/RHP Connor Kimple (Marquette HS, Wisconsin)
OF/RHP John Flowers (Trinity Christian Academy, Florida)
OF/RHP Michael Toglia (Gig Harbor HS, Washington)
OF/RHP Trevor Boone (Tulsa Memorial HS, Oklahoma)

Kris Bryant and HS C/3B Success Rates

It’s Friday, so it’s time to go with something a little lighter than the usual three thousand word prep prospect ramblings that have peppered the site over the past two weeks. That wave of high school analysis on the site of late – we’ve covered catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, and third basemen so far – makes it as good a time as any to share one of my favorite high school scouting blurbs in recent memory. Here’s a snippet from a report about a guy you might know

The power, however, mostly shows up during batting practice or when he has a metal bat in his hands. There are a lot of moving parts to his swing and he has trouble barreling balls up with wood, so how much usable power he ends up having is a big question. He has a long, loopy swing and he never changes his approach when he’s struggling. He’s athletic for a big guy and may be able to handle third base. He has the arm for it, and some scouts said they wouldn’t be shocked if he eventually ended up on the mound.

Scouting, man. It’s all just a big guessing game. Especially with HS hitters. Don’t let anybody ever tell you different. All anybody does is make their best informed guesses and then move on to the next player.

Speaking of Kris Bryant (the HS hitter above was Kris Bryant, BTW), here’s how his draft year stacks up with a few of this year’s draft top bats…

.329/.493/.820 – 66 BB/44 K – 7/11 SB

That’s Bryant.

.411/.551/.822 – 40 BB/25 K – 0/1 SB

This is Will Craig, the guy I haven’t shut up about all year. He’s finally moved up on the “expert” lists from that fifth round area before the year to a potential mid- to late-first round pick. Still like my AJ Reed comp for him. He shares at least some similarities to Bryant in that a) he’s a college third baseman, b) he’s got a good enough arm to moonlight on the mound, and c) he’s chock full of righthanded power.

.387/.560/.655 – 59 BB/33 K – 0/3 SB

This guy is my favorite hitter in the draft, Zack Collins. He’s the one I’ve comped to Schwarber stylistically. I actually think Collins is the better catcher and could stick there as a pro. Still might be best moving him out from behind the plate. I’ve just come up with a terrifying comp for him…Joey Votto. Maybe he’s one of those hitters that we shouldn’t compare young guys to, but then again…at the same age, Votto hit .256/.330/.425 with 52 BB/122 K in A+ ball. I could see Collins going to A/A+ this year after the draft and doing similar stuff.

.419/.547/.753 – 56 BB/42 K – 6/11 SB

Arguably the closest comp to Bryant statistically is Kyle Lewis. Most walks, most whiffs, and some degree of a speed component. They also both played slightly lesser conference competition than their peers. I still kind of think that he’s got a lot of Yasiel Puig in his game — both the good and the bad — but that’s admittedly a minority view. Jermaine Dye is a good one put out there by Frankie Piliere. I’ve also heard Derek Bell, a name that I like because I think it fits fairly well and because any excuse to look up Derek Bell again gives the mid-90s sports nostalgia part of my brain a jolt.

Now it should be clear that none of these guys is Bryant. And I should also make clear that the high school scouting report quoted above was for entertainment purposes only; nobody in their right mind would compare a prep slugger yet to fully realize his potential to a more fully formed college hitter.

Bryant’s funny in hindsight high school scouting report isn’t really related (all that much, anyway) to the player he would eventually become. The fact that I went from Point A (it’s damn hard to get a read on HS hitters no matter how good you are at this) to Point B (hey, I’m just now realizing we have some strong statistical performers in the college game that should be held up against the recent gold standard in college hitting) using Bryant in both was honestly just a fun coincidence.

That said, it was pretty funny to look up the numbers of Craig, Collins, and Lewis and see all sorts of impressive BAs and OBPs…and then realize that those things actually work against them when trying to compare them to Bryant. Bryant’s power production as a college junior was just unreal: a 491 ISO is Ruth/Bonds/McGwire territory. Craig comes closest and he’s still almost one hundred points away. I guess this is the point where I should mention that Bryant was playing in some homer friendly parks in the WCC while Craig gets to play a ton of games at a very hitter friendly park at Wake Forest. Without access to College Splits I can’t really say how much those factors have impacted each player’s performance, but I think somewhere between not at all to a ton is fair. But still! Craig’s numbers look closest at the surface level, so if you really wanted to be that kind of draft fan…

So, yeah, none of these guys is Bryant. Thankfully, not being Bryant is not the standard that big league teams hold young power prospects. Each guy is good with his own pros and cons. All should be first round picks and an argument can be made that all belong in the top ten.

*****

I’ve mentioned explicitly how high school first basemen and second basemen have been a historically risky draft proposition. I’ve mentioned the opposite being true for high school shortstops. I’ve implied that prep catchers might be a bad investment. Time to look at that in a more concrete way; here’s what I’ve got…

2011 – Blake Swihart and Greg Bird (Austin Hedges)
2010 – N/A
2009 – JR Murphy, Wil Myers, Max Stassi, and Tucker Barnhart (Steven Baron)
2008 – Christian Vasquez (Kyle Skipworth, Adrian Nieto)
2007 – Devin Mesoraco, Travis d’Arnaud, and Derek Norris (Austin Romine, Juan Centeno)
2006 – Hank Conger
2005 – (Brandon Snyder, Bryan Anderson, Josh Thole)
2004 – Neil Walker, Lou Marson, Martin Maldonado, and Tyler Flowers (Angel Salome)
2003 – Daric Barton and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Steven Lerud)
2002 – Joey Votto and Brian McCann (Kyle Phillips)
2001 – Joe Mauer, Rene Rivera, and Geovany Soto
2000 – Yadier Molina and Mike Napoli

The first set of names are players who have accrued positive value in the big leagues so far while the names in parentheses have reached the majors but have career negative rWAR. I went back to 2011 as a starting point to allow recent draftees the appropriate time to develop in the minors. That conveniently left us with pretty numbers: in the last twelve drafts we can fairly draw conclusions from, there have been 24 positive value drafted and signed catchers. That’s two per class. Turns out I’ve made similar assertions in the past…

All of the caveats from above (historical trends aren’t more important than individual prospects being the most relevant and most important here) apply, but taking into everything else into account we can guess that the following will wind up as true in 2015…

1) The first high school catching prospect should expect to be off the board around the mid-20s in the first round.
2) There will be other quality catching prospects (perhaps up to five) off the board through round four, but not so much after that point.
3) Only two of said prospects should be expected to have meaningful MLB careers as catchers.

This is once again the point in these historical draft trend conversations, in much the same way that I did above a few years ago, that I want to make very clear that I think these look backs are more interesting conversation-starters than definitive conclusions meant for predictive purposes. Just knowing that something happened is not the same as understanding why it happened. I think there are some pretty compelling theories that explain some of the “why” with each of the positions that seem to flop hardest, but past draft history shouldn’t dictate future draft decisions.

Since we’re on the subject of draft trends anyway, here’s a list of high school third basemen since 2000 who have reached the highest level of professional ball…

2012 – Joey Gallo
2011 – Tyler Goeddel
2010 – Nick Castellanos
2009 – Nolan Arenado and Matt Davidson
2008 – Brett Lawrie
2007 – Matt Dominguez, Jake Smolinski, Matt West, and Steven Souza (Josh Vitters, Neftali Soto, and Will Middlebrooks)
2006 – (Ryan Adams)
2005 – Chris Carter and Alex Avila (Josh Bell)
2004 – Billy Butler, Nick Evans, and Russ Canzler
2003 – Ian Stewart (Jamie Roman and Travis Schlichting)
2002 – (Brock Peterson)
2001 – David Wright (Matthew Brown)
2000 – Edwin Encarnacion (Scott Thorman)

There have been eighteen positive value drafted and signed high school third basemen since 2000. There have been twenty-eight total big league third basemen out of the same group. Of the eighteen positive (or neutral for the sake of this discussion) players, Davidson, Castellanos, Goeddel (0.0 rWAR), and Russ Canzler (0.0 rWAR) all just barely stayed out of the negative. Many have needed position switches to first base or an outfield corner while one (West) has made his contribution on the mound.

With nothing remotely conclusive about these conclusions, I think we can say that high school catchers, first basemen, second basemen, and third basemen are historically questionable selections. High school shortstops, on the other hand, are where the money is at. Hardly a breakthrough observation, but interesting that recent outcomes bear it out.

2016 MLB Draft – High School Third Basemen

I still have a few weeks left to finalize things, so don’t consider the following statement set in stone just yet. However, I feel pretty good about this particular 2016 MLB Draft take: the top two high school third base prospects are better than the top two high school outfield prospects. I’ll take Josh Lowe and Nolan Jones over Mickey Moniak and Blake Rutherford. I’m not quite plugged in enough to know if that’s a bold statement or not, but it feels at least a little out there. Allow me to explain.

First off, I’m incredibly biased when it comes to Jones. I’m pleased to admit that out front because said admission of bias was well worth getting to watch him play a bunch this spring at Holy Ghost Prep. Getting the chance to see a young man with his kind of talent thirty minutes play his home games thirty minutes from the office was an incredible experience. Jones is an electrifying player who really can do it all as a prospect. In about twenty minutes of game time in his most recent appearance, he was able to hit a homer (one of two on the day), swipe a bag, and turn a slick double play at short. That run was topped only by an earlier game when he smoked the ball every time up before ending the game in extras with an opposite field rocket that cleared the fence in left. He’s outstanding. I think the sky is the limit for him as a professional ballplayer. I’ve seen him more frequently than any other top prospect in this class, which gives me a little more insight to his strengths and weaknesses as a player (whether or not said insight should be trusted is up to the reader) but also presents a challenge in fighting human nature. It’s only natural to want to see a player you’ve come to watch and appreciate throughout the past year succeed going forward. My assessment of him as a player won’t help him or hurt him in any conceivable way, but there’s definitely some subconscious work going on that pushes players we’re more familiar with up the board.

Of course, all of those firsthand observations can be a double-edged sword when it comes down to doing what I attempt to accomplish with this site. My process for evaluating players here includes all kinds of inputs, the least critical of which being what I see with my own two eyes. It’s not that I lack confidence my own personal evaluations; quite the opposite, really, so realizing that my ego needs to be in check brings me to not wanting to fall into the trap that has led to more botched first round picks than any other singular mistake. The easiest way to ruin all the hard work of so many is to have one supposed “expert” come in and make decisions with little regard to the opinions of the group. When a general manager overrules the collective decision of the scouting staff to select a first round player that he has fallen in love with after just a few short views, the resulting pick is almost always a disaster. It’s admittedly a rare occurrence – there’s a reason real analysis of a team’s drafting record gets pinned on the scouting director and not the general manager – but it does happen. Whether it’s ego, pressure to find a quick-mover to potentially save jobs (including his own), or actual conviction in the prospect (the most palatable option for sure, but still tough to stomach when dealing with small firsthand scouting samples), it happens.

Long story short: I don’t want to be like one of those GM’s. I like trusting what I read and hear, both publicly and privately, because those are the closest analogues to a “scouting staff” that any one outsider like me can hope to assemble. That will never stop me from going to games and showcases to form my own opinions, but I’d prefer to use those to supplement the larger scouting dossier assembled than to make up the basis of it. In many ways I consider what I see up close as a tie-breaker and not much more.

It is, however, quite nice when what I’ve heard is backed up by what I’ve seen. That’s exactly what has happened with Jones this spring. The total package is awfully enticing: chance for a legit plus hit tool (lightning fast hands, advanced pitch recognition, consistent hard contact), plus arm strength (confirmed via the eye and the low-90s fastballs on the gun) that is also uncannily accurate, average or better run times, prodigious raw power (have seen him go deep to all fields this spring), and loads of athleticism. I’d even go so far as to suggest he’s shown enough in the way of shortstop actions to at least get certain teams thinking about letting him try to stay up the middle for a bit, but that might be pushing it. Recent big shortstops like Carlos Correa and Corey Seager have reversed the trend somewhat, but I still think Jones would be best served getting third base down pat as a pro.

Finding reasonable comps for a lefthanded hitting third baseman – which, naturally, just so happens to be what our top three prospects here happen to be – is unreasonably challenging. I’ll start with the WHOA (not to be confused with wOBA, BTW) comp and work backwards.

One older fan – not a scout, not a Holy Ghost Prep booster, but just a fan of the game – was at frequent games this spring. I got friendly enough with the gentleman, around the same age (late-60s) as my father if I had to guess, over the course of the spring that he felt good about dropping an Eddie Mathews comp on Jones as an all-around player. Now that’s a name that gets your attention. My dad raves about Mathews’s physical tools to this day. All of the numbers suggest that he’s on the very short list of best lefthanded third basemen ever to play the game, so that’s not a comparison to be taken lightly. I’ll repeat that it was coming from a fan – though, again, not one with a vested interest in the team or the player, only the sport – and I’m nowhere near qualified to say whether or not he was on the right path with such a lofty comp, but, hey, Hall of Fame comps are fun, so there you go.

Two additional names that came up that I think fit the lefthanded hitting third base profile pretty well were Hank Blalock (strictly as a hitter, though I think the raw power difference between the two makes this one questionable) and Corey Koskie. The Koskie comparison is one I find particularly intriguing. Koskie, a criminally underrated player during his time, was good for a career 162 game average of .275/.367/.458 with 20 HR, 12 SB, and 75 BB/130 K. We’re totally pulling numbers out of thin air with any amateur prospect projection – doubly so with teenagers – but that seems like a reasonable hope based on what I’ve seen out of Jones. Offense like that combined with plus defense at third would make one heck of a player in today’s game. For reference’s sake, that’s almost like a better version of late-career Adrian Beltre. Of course, the mention of Beltre is not meant to serve as a direct comparison but rather a potential production comp.

Now if I wanted to drop a righthanded hitting third baseman comparison on Jones that wasn’t Beltre, I think I’d go with a young Ryan Zimmerman. His 162 game average to date: .282/.347/.473 with 25 HR, 5 SB, and 64 BB/124 K. Not entirely dissimilar to Koskie, right? A young Zimmerman/Koskie type is a tremendously valuable player, with those two each clocking in right around 4.0 fWAR average (Zimmerman a bit more, Koskie a hair less) during years of club control. Going back to our lefthanded third base comp in Koskie brings us to this final “hey, maybe Jones should be a top five pick in this class” moment of the day. Koskie, the 715th overall pick in 1994, finished his career with 24.6 rWAR. That total would have placed him fourth behind only Javier Vazquez (46.0), Nomar Garciaparra (44.2), and Paul Konerko (27.6) in his draft class. He’s just ahead of Jason Varitek (24.3) and AJ Pierzynski (24.0). My non-comprehensive look on the Fangraphs leaderboards has him ahead of all but Vazquez and Garciaparra. We live in a world where Corey Koskie ranked in the top three (or four) in a given draft class, so why not Nolan Jones?

Jones really is that good. Believe the hype. And yet I have him second to Josh Lowe. That should tell you a good bit about what I think about Lowe as a player. He’s a little bit of a higher variance prospect than Jones – more upside if it all clicks, but less certainty he turns into a solid professional than I’d put on Jones – so if I was a real scouting director with real future earnings on the line, I’m not sure I’d take him quite as high as he could wind up on my final rankings. The possibility, however, that he winds up as the best player to come out of this class is very real. He reminds me just a little bit of an opposite-hand version of this guy

Bryant entered the summer with lofty expectations, but he often looked overmatched at the plate during the showcase circuit last summer. When he’s on, he’s a treat to watch. He has a lean, 6-foot-5, 195-pound frame and light-tower power that draws comparisons to a young Troy Glaus. The power, however, mostly shows up during batting practice or when he has a metal bat in his hands. There are a lot of moving parts to his swing and he has trouble barreling balls up with wood, so how much usable power he ends up having is a big question. He has a long, loopy swing and he never changes his approach when he’s struggling. He’s athletic for a big guy and may be able to handle third base. He has the arm for it, and some scouts said they wouldn’t be shocked if he eventually ended up on the mound. Some scouts love Bryant’s power enough to take him in the back half of the first round, while others turned him in as a token gesture and have little interest in him–especially for the price it will take to lure him away from his San Diego commitment.

I really, really like Josh Lowe, if that’s not already clear. I mean, I did once kind of compare him to Babe Ruth. I think a team would be justified taking either Lowe or Jones in the top ten…and quite possibly the top five…or maybe even top three. Let me stop now before I really get too far ahead of myself.

Drew Mendoza is a third potential first round high school third baseman with the kind of physical tools to project a long-term above-average regular at the hot corner. Opinions about his hit tool run the gamut from “love” (above-average to plus) to “wait, what’s the opposite of love again?” (too much swing-and-miss with exploitable holes against more advanced pitching), but I tend to side more with those who really liked him over the summer than those who have cooled on him some this spring. That again shows a little bit of the bias that I’d ideally eliminate from these evaluations – summer showcase performances are still generally given too much weight by many, myself included – but figuring out the right balance of so many informational inputs is the ongoing challenge of any talent evaluator. One interesting head-to-head prospect comparison I’ve had scouts debate over the past few months is Mendoza vs Carter Kieboom; I prefer the latter by a healthy margin, but there was little consensus among people I’ve talked to. My hunch is that Kieboom will be off the board first, but if the chatter I’ve heard is any indication, it’ll be very close.

Andres Sosa is neither built like Pope, Jones, nor Mendoz and he does not quite match any of those young lefthanders in the power department, but the righthander from Texas has a sweet stroke, a mature beyond his years approach to hitting, average or better speed, and high level defensive tools. He comes by it differently, but there are some similarities that I can see between Sosa, potential future Longhorn, and CJ Hinojosa, former Longhorn and current Giants prospect.

It’s easy to ignore high school statistics for top draft prospects. There are way too many complicating factors that make relying on performance indicators little more than a waste of time at that level, but it doesn’t mean we can’t have a little fun with some of the outstanding efforts put forth by some of this country’s best hitters. Take Bo Bichette, for example. All he’s done as a high school ballplayer is hit .545/.650/1.272 in 200 HS PA since his sophomore season. That line includes fifty extra base hits (almost half of which being home runs) with 52 BB and just 18 K. When you’re flirting with an OPS that begins with 2.something, you’re doing something right. It’s hard to put up such monster numbers in a competitive baseball state like Florida without having some pretty intriguing physical abilities to match. Interestingly enough, one of his physical traits that seems to have talked about the most is something that not all agree is a good thing. Bichette’s “weird back elbow thing” has been brought up by multiple contacts as a potential point of concern going forward; others, however, aren’t bothered by it in the least. I suppose like any unique swing setup, it’s only an issue for those who don’t believe in him as a hitter in the first place. If you like him, it’s a fun quirk that will either work as a pro or be smoothed out just enough to keep working after getting in the cage a few dozen times with pro coaching.

If you don’t like him, then it’s hard to get past. This is far from a one-to-one comparison, but the never-ending discussion among scouts about Bichette’s mechanics at the plate reminds me of the internet’s incessant chatter about Maikel Franco’s “arm-bar swing.” Breaking down players’ mechanics to the point that no pro team ever does makes you stand out as super smart on the internet, you see. Less cynically, I’d acknowledge that young hitters are hard to judge, so it’s hard to blame a neutral observer tasked with making a long-term assessment on a prospect’s future for being concerned with a hitter who does something different at the plate. Different can get you fired in this business, after all.

My own stance on hitting/pitching mechanics hasn’t changed much over the years: if it works for the individual and he is comfortable repeating it consistently, let it ride. I get that there are instances where guys can get away with mechanical quirks against lesser competition that need to be noted and potentially tweaked as they advance, but, for the most part, positive results beget positive results. If a kid can hit, let them do what they do until they stop hitting. Then and only then do you swoop in and start making peripheral changes to the approach. Of course, this makes me sound like a caveman: results over process is a terrible way to analyze anything, especially if we’re trying to make any kind of predictive critical assessments. Process is critical, no doubt, but I’m open to all kinds of processes that get results; it should go without saying but just in case, there’s no “right” way to swing a bat. Open-mindedness about the process is as important as any other factor when scouting.

I guess my positive spin on players with unique mechanics is simple: if a guy like Bichette can hit the ball hard consistently with a “wrong” swing, then, as a scout confident in my team’s minor league coaching and development staff, I’d be pretty excited to get him signed to a contract to see what he could do once they “fix” him. Said fix would ideally be a tweak more than a total reconstruction – why completely tear down a productive player’s swing when you don’t have to? – but drafting a player you plan on drastically altering mechanically doesn’t make a ton of sense in the first place anyway.

Draft Bichette for his electric bat speed, above-average to plus raw power, and drastically improved whole-fields approach as a hitter. Draft him because he’s a solid runner who has flashed enough defensive tools to profile at multiple spots (3B, 2B, corner OF) on the diamond. Draft him because you believe that his “weird back elbow thing” can be channeled in a positive direction and turned into a helpful trigger when facing off against high-caliber arms. Don’t draft him to reinvent him as something he’s not.

*****

3B Austin Shenton (Bellingham HS, Washington)
3B Blake Berry (Casa Grande HS, California)
3B Braden Shewmake (Wylie East HS, Texas)
3B Brett Esau (Foothills Composite SS, Saskatchewan)
3B Chad McClanahan (Brophy College Prep, Arizona)
3B Cole Henderson (Valhalla HS, California)
3B Colin Ludwig (Chandler HS, Arizona)
3B Jake Slaughter (Ouachita Christian HS, Louisiana)
3B Joey Polak (Quincy Notre Dame HS, Illinois)
3B Joey Rose (Toms River North HS, New Jersey)
3B Kyle Johnson (Jackson Memorial HS, New Jersey)
3B Laney Orr (Reynolds HS, North Carolina)
3B Mason Templet (St. Thomas More HS, Louisiana)
3B Matthew Miller (Paintsville HS, Kentucky)
3B Mitchell Caskey (Westside HS, Texas)
3B Peyton Russoniello (Quaker Valley HS, Pennsylvania)
3B Riley Hogan (Edgewater HS, Florida)
3B Spencer Steer (Millikan HS, California)
3B William Matthiessen (West Linn HS, Oregon)
3B Zach Weller (Coronado HS, California)
3B/2B Bo Bichette (Lakewood HS, Florida)
3B/OF Anthony Gonnella (Riverside HS, Florida)
3B/RHP Grant Judkins (Pella HS, Iowa)
3B/RHP Josh Lowe (Pope HS, Georgia)
3B/RHP Mason Studstill (Rockledge HS, Florida)
3B/RHP Matt Mervis (Georgetown Prep, Maryland)
3B/RHP Rylan Thomas (Windermere Prep, Florida)
3B/SS Andres Sosa (Reagan HS, Texas)
3B/SS Colton Welker (Marjory Stoneman Douglas HS, Florida)
3B/SS Daniel Bakst (Poly Prep Country Day School, New York)
3B/SS Drew Mendoza (Lake Minneola HS, Florida)
3B/SS Kevin Brophy (Morristown-Beard School, New Jersey)
3B/SS Luis Curbelo (Cocoa HS, Florida)
3B/SS Matt Burkart (Eaton HS, Colorado)
3B/SS Nolan Jones (Holy Ghost Prep, Pennsylvania)

Jay Groome vs Tyler Mondile

I’ve never seen a high school baseball with a surrounding atmosphere quite like this one. Parking lots were full hours before first pitch. Fans of all ages were set up tailgating with spreads more typical of fall Sundays. I had heard that they ran out of physical tickets by the end and were letting people in via a simple one-to-one cash transaction at the gate. Jay Groome vs Tyler Mondile packed the house. It was a pretty special sight to behold. Pat Gillick, Johnny Almaraz, Charley Kerfeld, Jorge Velandia, Kiley McDaniel, Jon Adkins, Keith Law (five rows ahead of us), Jonathan Mayo, and a handful of others that I couldn’t quite place were among the 6,005 people jammed into Campbell’s Field in beautiful Camden, New Jersey. At five dollars a head, that means over $15,000 was raised for the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and an Audubon HS student currently battling brain cancer of her own. Pretty cool. Also cool: the two starting pitchers that brought the crowd out doing exactly what fans of both were hoping to see.

Tyler Mondile looked really good. He actually tied Groome for the hottest heater of the night at 94 MPH — I had them both getting there four different times, but saw Mondile up to 95 on a few of the guns around me — and had the more consistent velocity throughout the evening. In a funny twist, Mondile happened to hit 94 with his fastball three straight times in his first head-to-head battle with Groome at the plate. Groome took a fastball in for a strike, a fastball further in for a ball, and a fastball on the outer half to put him in a 1-2 hole before the at bat ended preemptively when Mondile got a little help from his catcher with a stolen base threat eliminated at third base. If there was any doubt that Mondile was pumped for this one — and two seconds of watching him stomp around the field pre-game would push those thoughts aside right quick — then the 94, 94, 94 to start the at bat against the opposing starting pitcher was a clear indicator of how amped up the Gloucester Catholic righthander must have been feeling.

Beyond the strong showing of arm strength, I was impressed with the admittedly few curves Mondile managed to drop in for strikes (76-79 MPH). He used it more as a pitch in and around the strike zone than as a chase pitch, but it had the shape and consistency to worth in both directions with continued use. In time, the pitch looked like it could be a legitimate second weapon. There’s a good bit of effort in Mondile’s delivery and his high level of demonstrative emotion on the mound (something that would make him a fan favorite in many markets) might mean a future in the bullpen could happen sooner rather than later, but reports of his changeup being an average or better offering and his ability to repeat said delivery make him worth trying as a starter as long as possible. I wouldn’t necessarily say his 6-1, 185 pound frame screamed projection, but his upper-half looked like it could stand to put on at least another ten pounds of weight to help even out his stout lower-body. Despite his relatively short stature, Mondile’s legs looked like they’d pass any relevant strength test. In this specific class it would be hard to call him a first rounder, but I could see him making sense for any team anywhere between rounds three and six. I came away believing that he likely made himself some money based on how he looked in front of a crowd with that many influential executives.

Unfortunately, I came away saying the opposite about Jay Groome. Kind of. I’ll warn everybody now that what you are about to read is the most annoyingly negative report on a pitcher coming off of a six-inning, fourteen strikeout performance as you could possibly imagine. That may be a pretty big stunner (or not, I’m no mind reader) to regular readers who ought to know two things about me by now: 1) I’m relentlessly positive about prospects, and 2) I’ve had Groome as my first overall prospect in this draft since late last summer and never really considered making a switch after seeing the big lefty throw three earlier times this winter/spring. I walked away from last night’s effort wondering if Groome’s stranglehold on the top spot should finally be loosened. Part of the thinking there is that Groome came into this start with an almost impossibly high bar set by his previous performances over the past calendar year. I wanted to see him go out there tonight and cement his status as the draft’s clear top prospect, and finally, mercifully, end the 1-1 discussion once and for all. If that sounds like the idiocy of getting on a player for not meeting my own arbitrarily set standards for his performance, then you’re exactly right. I’m not proud of that attitude, but I think a hyper-critical eye is needed when trying to separate a top ten talent (which Groome certainly is) from a potential 1-1 candidate (which he was 100% going in…and still could be even after a dominating statistical night that somehow left me wanting more).

Groome came out firing in the first with a string of low-90s fastballs (93, 94, 92, 93) before dropping a picture perfect 78 MPH curveball that made the Gloucester Catholic’s leadoff man’s knees buckle and the crowd of scouts and execs behind home plate (as well as a few thousand of their closest friends) audibly “oooh.” Incredibly, that was just the first of five different “oooh” curves he’d throw all night: there were two more in the fifth inning and two more after that in his sixth and final frame. I had that pitch ranging from 74-78 on the evening. Everything about the pitch is plus to plus-plus, though I think you could quibble some with a slightly slowed arm speed on the offering that tips it just enough for HS hitters to notice, but not nearly enough for them to react. The pitch is so good that there’s a chance he can get away with the slight pause in pro ball for a while; obvious point is obvious, but that’s really high praise. Groome’s curve is special and that alone makes him a top ten prospect in this class.

After going 93, 94, 92, 93, and 78 on the first batter, Groome went 93, 77, 92, 94, and 93 to the second hitter. That basic pattern — work off the fastball, mix in one curve per plate appearance — was followed by Groome for much of the game. I won’t say my notes were perfect — my focus on the fast-paced, well-pitched (though admittedly not particularly crisply played otherwise) game was a solid 98% throughout, but taking in the atmosphere occasionally led to a missed radar reading or two — but I only had Groome dropping two curves to the same batter on four occasions. This strategy obviously worked (14 strikeouts is 14 strikeouts) with the threat of a bigger fastball than he wound up showing, average fastball command that flashed better in certain at bats, and that devastating curve ranking as the reasons why in ascending order of importance.

Everything you’ve already seen, read, or heard about Groome’s mechanics held up. They are close to picture perfect. I’ve long been on the record of only caring about mechanical extremes, and I’d say with great confidence that Groome’s arm action and delivery are on that happy tail of the bell curve. With his frame, bulked up from a boy late last summer to a rock solid man by now (though I’d argue with some loss of athleticism), his age, and those textbook mechanics, it’s easy to imagine a day in the not so distant future where Groome is a consistent mid-90s arm if he wants to be. Of course, that’s all projection at this point: Groome’s velocity on this day fluctuated from those early game low-90s peaks to a strange middle inning dip to the mid- to upper-80s. I was almost positive while watching live that he wasn’t working in his changeup — some around me thought otherwise, for what it’s worth* — but I had him with an 85, 86, 87, and four 89’s between innings three and five. After thinking about it some more I could buy the mid-80s pitches being his attempt at the change to give the scouts a little taste of his third pitch; if so, I’ve seen it look better, but the arm action sure looked like the fastball, so at least there was that. Still, the 89’s for a well-rested teenage arm on a nice night weren’t exactly typical of what we’ve come to expect out of a potential first overall pick. He rebounded some in his final inning, sitting 90-91 with his fastball while relying more on the curve than in any other part of the game to that point. His final pitch of the night was a 92 MPH fastball that was swung through for eighth strikeout in a row to end the game and fourteenth overall.

(* Groome himself identified the pitch as a change: “As far as my command goes, I think that’s pretty good, but I need to show a little more depth to my changeup. I’m not really getting out in front of it and left a couple up high today. They fouled it off, they didn’t really make me pay. Later on down the road, I have to get that good depth on it.”)

This is the point in the report where I’m supposed to make a grand conclusion about what I saw out of Groome on the night. Well, I’ve got nothing. I selfishly wanted to see Groome at his very best — again, it’s worth pointing out that the man had fourteen strikeouts in six innings and that’s not his best — so that I could walk away ready to declare the race for 1-1 and top spot on my board over. The obvious good news is the confirmation that his curve and mechanics are both 1-1 caliber. His fastball has been in the past, but wasn’t on this night. I’m not terribly concerned about one good but not great velocity night — the fastball was still commanded fairly well (average to above-average), had such obvious late life that even my old eyes could see it, and came out of a deceptive enough slot that it had hitters taking bad swings all evening long — but I think the summer showcase version of Groome’s heater is (unsurprisingly) less the real thing than what we’ve seen out of him this spring. His changeup remains an open question, but that’s not atypical for a big-time high school arm with Groome’s brand of one-two punch locked and loaded for bear most starts. The development of his physique continues to surprise me — it’s as if he finds a way to pack on a pound or three of good weight every time I see him — but I do worry some that he’s getting close to the danger zone of sacrificing some looseness and athleticism, both facets of his game that excited me so much about him last summer, for strength. Add it all up (above-average fastball with plus upside, clear plus curve, changeup with a chance to be average, elegant mechanics, and a pro-ready body) and it’s clear that Jay Groome is a really, really good pitching prospect. What isn’t clear, however, is whether or not he’s the best amateur prospect in the country. For some, not yet knowing is knowing; when the risk of taking a teenage arm gets factored in, Groome not being a slam dunk pick above the rest means the risk is too great to pass on similarly valued peers (Puk, Lewis, Moniak, Rutherford, Perez, Ray, whomever) with more certainty. I think that’s where the Phillies are currently at in their evaluation. Between Groome’s staggering perfect world ceiling and moderate (for a HS arm) floor (less projection in his body than most, plus his mechanics portend good things to come) and the less than thrilling options that surround him at the top of the class, I’d have a hard time removing his name from 1-1 consideration if I was in charge of such a pick.

2016 MLB Draft – High School Shortstops

A brief history of the top high school shortstops selected and their respective ages in their draft year…

2015: Brendan Rodgers – turned 19 that August
2014: Nick Gordon – turned 19 that October
2013: JP Crawford – turned 19 that next January
2012: Carlos Correa – turned 18 that September
2011: Francisco Lindor – turned 18 that November
2010: Manny Machado – turned 18 that July
2009: Jiovanni Mier – turned 19 that August

Delvin Perez, set to turn 18-years-old this November, will join that club in a few weeks. He’ll be younger than everybody on that list, though Lindor, the player I used as the best case scenario comp for Perez at the start of the draft process, was only ten days older than Perez when comparing their respective draft years. We’ll come back to him shortly.

If we deem the past few seasons as too recent to make fairly assess, then we’re left with a ton of quick-moving impact big league talent at the position. There’s are many reasons why Major League Baseball is in the midst of yet another shortstop renaissance, and the recent influx of talented prep prospects has a lot to do with it. Take a look at this stretch of big league players (guys with * were drafted as shortstops but moved off sooner rather than later)…

2012: Correa, Addison Russell, Corey Seager
2011: Lindor, Javier Baez, Trevor Story, Mookie Betts*
2010: Machado, Ryan Brett*, Garin Cecchini*, JT Realmuto*
2009: Nick Franklin, Chris Owings, Billy Hamilton*, Enrique Hernandez*, Scooter Gennett*

You also have Gavin Cecchini, Daniel Robertson, and Roman Quinn on the way, though there’s a chance that all of the above will have asterisks by their name eventually if they don’t have one already. Then there’s also clear asterisks Michael Taylor (a negative value player to date, but there’s plenty of time to change that) and Mychal Givens, who really should have been on the mound in the first place. We’re just using that 2009-2012 draft band here; if we include the past three classes, we’ve got Crawford, Gordon, and Rodgers, among others, on the way. That’s a healthy group of high school shortstops drafted this decade.

If so inclined to use recent history as a guide, then the point here is pretty simple: when in doubt, draft a prep shortstop. We’ve seen how high school catchers, first basemen, and second basemen have proven to be questionable investments over the years. High school shortstops, on the other hand, have had a great deal of success. Nothing here is conclusive, nobody exists on purpose, nobody belongs anywhere, everybody’s gonna die. Let’s talk about high school shortstops.

One of the fun things about having a site like this for so long is having a long track record, good and bad, to look back on. I find looking back at the bad to be particularly illuminating. A crucial element to evaluation, in any walk of life, is the willingness and ability to self-scout. My own track record with the top high school shortstops of recent years is spotty at best. I’d like to think I’ve learned a few things along the way, but that can be a tough thing to see when you’re still in the middle of the seemingly never-ending year-to-year draft game. My evolution can be seen somewhat when looking at my experiences with Manny Machado in 2010, Francisco Lindor in 2011, Carlos Correa in 2012, and eventually Brendan Rodgers in 2015…and hopefully Delvin Perez in 2016.

This quick, admittedly self-indulgent journey begins with both Machado and Correa as I explained the latter’s high ranking at one point using the former’s far too low ranking as the learning experience that it was…

Correa represents my mea culpa for underrating Manny Machado in 2010. Their scouting reports read very, very similar, and are best summed up by the abundance of “above-average” and “plus” sprinkled throughout. Correa can throw with the best of them, and his foot speed, bat speed, approach, and range are all well above-average. He’ll need plenty of at bats against quality pitching, so his drafting team will have to be patient, but his experience against high velocity arms is encouraging.

I had Machado thirteenth on my final 2010 board. That means he was behind AJ Cole, Karsten Whitson, Stetson Allie (perhaps there’s a lesson there about HS arms…), Brandon Workman, Deck McGuire (or low-ceiling college arms…), and Justin O’Conner (think I’ve learned my lesson about non-elite HS catchers by now). Austin Wilson (ranked fifth) also stands out as a bad miss this year; there’s maybe some Will Benson or Blake Rutherford parallels with him, depending on how you look at things. As far as Machado, I just flat missed on his physical tools. Missing on aptitude or work ethic or willingness to take instruction or even projection of physical growth is one thing, but what I saw and heard of Machado was drastically different than how he really played the game. You could say I underrated his tools, but I’d go a step further and say I just flat didn’t appreciate him for what he was and could be. There could have been some contrarian bias in me then that I hope has gotten beaten out of me by now; sometimes guys are hyped for good reason, so going against the grain to be different is just flat stupid. If he’s good, say he’s good. If that means you have the same top five as everybody else, so be it. That exact contrarian streak kept bubbling up here as I had assumed most of the spring that Carter Kieboom would overtake Delvin Perez on this rankings one he showed everybody he could hang at shortstop. I LOVE Kieboom, as I hope I’ll clearly explain below. Perez just has that extra gear of athleticism, speed, and range that puts him in the same class as too many of the recent shortstop hits to ignore. One such hit is Francisco Lindor.

My take on Lindor after his limited debut season (20 PA) showed just enough personal growth that I’ll give myself a tiny gold star for the day…

Without repeating myself pre-draft too much (check all the bold below for that take), here’s where I stand on Monteverde Academy (FL) SS Francisco Lindor. Of all the positives he brings to the field, the two biggest positives I can currently give him credit for are his defense and time/age. Lindor’s defensive skills really are exemplary and there is no doubt that he’ll stick at shortstop through his first big league contract (at least). As for time/age, well, consider this a preemptive plea in the event Lindor struggles at the plate next season: the guy will be playing his entire first full pro season at just eighteen years old. For reference’s sake, Jimmy Rollins, the player I compared Lindor’s upside to leading up to the draft, played his entire Age-18 season at Low-A in the South Atlantic League and hit .270/.330/.370 in 624 plate appearances. A year like that wouldn’t be a shocker unless he goes all Jurickson Profar, a name Baseball Prospectus’ Jason Parks recently evoked after watching Lindor, on the low minors. Either way, I’m much happier with this pick now than I would have been a few months ago. Cleveland saw the opportunity to land a superstar talent at a premium defensive position and went for it, high risk and all.

That last line is where there’s some progress shown: “Cleveland saw the opportunity to land a superstar talent at a premium defensive position and went for it, high risk and all.” I think that belief informs where I’m at with Perez right now. There’s almost no denying the enormity of his ceiling, but the risk factor is very real. The list of successful prep shortstops who no longer play shortstop above helps mitigate some of those concerns as it seems that importance of being able to slide down the defensive spectrum can’t be overstated enough. Draft for stardom, hope for the best, and be willing and ready pivot developmentally to another defensive spot if necessary. Of course, if you get the stardom part wrong as I did with Machado, then your evaluation is doomed from the start. I at least allowed for that stardom with Lindor, so, yeah, some growth there. Not a ton, but some. I’ll take it.

I think I had mostly learned my lesson by the time it came to rank the aforementioned Carlos Correa first overall in 2012. That lesson was applied, more or less, last year when discussing Brendan Rodgers…

That’s a player worthy of going 1-1 if it all clicks, but there’s enough risk in the overall package that I’m not willing to call him the best player in this class. Second best, maybe. Third best, likely. The difference in ranking opinion is minute, but for a decision-maker picking within those first few selections it can mean the difference between job security for years to come (and, perhaps eventually, a ring…) or an outright dismissal even before getting to see this whole thing through.

The MLB Draft: go big on upside or go home, especially early on day one. And if you’ve got the smarts/guts enough to do just that, then make it a shortstop when possible. And if you’re going to gamble on a high risk/high reward shortstop, make it as young a shortstop as you can find. And if that young shortstop also happens to have game-changing speed, an above-average to plus arm, plus raw power, and a frame to dream on, then…well, maybe Delvin Perez should be talked more about as the potential top overall prospect in this class then he is. I know there’s some chatter, but maybe it should be louder. What stands out most to me about Perez is how much better he’s gotten over the past few months. That, combined with his youth, has his arrow pointed up in a major way.

For what it’s worth, I’ve heard from a few different independent sources that are steadfast in their belief that Perez will be the clear best player from this class within three years or less. To say that said reports have helped push me in the recent direction of Perez as a serious candidate to finish in the top spot on my own board would be more than fair. When I think of Perez, I can’t help but draw parallels to Brandon Ingram, freshman star at Duke and sure-fire top two pick in next month’s NBA Draft; more specifically, I think of Perez as the baseball draft version of Ingram (young, indicative of where the game is headed, and the next evolutionary step that can be traced back to a long line of similar yet steadily improving players over the years) when stacked up to Blake Rutherford’s Ben Simmons (both excellent yet perhaps slightly overhyped prospects getting too much love due to physical advantages that won’t always be there). I’m not sure even I buy all of that to the letter (and I lean towards Simmons as the better NBA prospect, so the thing falls apart quickly), but there are certain characteristics that make it fit…and it’s a fun hook.

Also for what it’s worth, I’ve heard from a few friends who are far from sold on Perez the hitter. That’s obviously a fair counterpoint to all of the enthusiasm found in the preceding avalanche of words. Will Perez hit enough to make the kind of impact worthy of the first overall selection? This takes me back to something tangentially related to Kyle Mercer, another potential 1-1 candidate, back in February

It goes back to something I mentioned in the comments section a few weeks back: guys either learn to hit or they don’t. That’s my paraphrased take from this scout’s quote talking about the likelihood of Jahlil Okafor improving his outside shot as a professional: “He needs to become a better shooter and free throw shooter. He either will or he won’t.” Scouts work very hard evaluating amateur and minor league talent across the country, so their collective insight into projecting a young hitter’s future is not to be dismissed. But…can we ever really know how a guy is going to react when thrown into the professional environment? A 95 MPH fastball with movement is a 95 MPH fastball with movement at any level. Plus speed, outstanding glove work, and the ability to miss bats are all translatable skills when honed properly. Hitting is an entirely different animal.

In other words, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. The Perez supporters –myself included, naturally – obviously believe in his bat, but also believe that he won’t necessarily have to hit a ton to be a damn fine player when you factor in his defensive gifts and plus to plus-plus speed. That’s part of what makes drafting a highly athletic shortstop prospect with tons of youth on his side so appealing. Even if the bat doesn’t fulfill all your hopes and dreams, the chances you walk away with at least something is high…or at least higher than at any other position. It gives players like Perez a deceptively high floor. I’ll annoyingly repeat what I said about Rodgers here one more time…

That’s a player worthy of going 1-1 if it all clicks, but there’s enough risk in the overall package that I’m not willing to call him the best player in this class. Second best, maybe. Third best, likely.

That’s what I said last year about Rodgers before eventually ranking him third overall in his class. I have similar thoughts about Perez, but now I’m reconsidering the logic in hedging on putting him anywhere but first overall. A sky high ceiling if he hits and a reasonably realistic useful big league floor if he doesn’t makes him hard to pass on, especially in a class with so few potential stars at the top. He’s blown past Oscar Mercado and Jalen Miller, and now shares a lot of the same traits that have made Francisco Lindor a future star. I don’t see Perez as the type of player you get fired for taking high, but rather the kind of player that has ownership looking at you funny for passing up after he makes it big. All that for a guy who nobody can say with compelling certainty will ever hit. I love the draft.

Carter Kieboom was with the third base prospects in my notes up until about a month or so ago. The buzz on him being good enough to stick at shortstop for at least a few years grew too loud to ignore. In fact, said buzz reminds me quite a bit about how the slow yet steady drumbeat for Alex Bregman, Shortstop grew throughout the spring last season. Beyond the defensive comparison, I think there’s actually a little something to looking at Kieboom developing as a potential Bregman type impact bat over the next few seasons. He checks every box you’d want to see out of a high school infielder: hit (above-average), power (above-average raw), bat speed (yes), approach (mature beyond his years), athleticism (well above-average), speed (average), glove (average at short, could be better yet at third), and arm (average to above-average, more than enough for the left side). He’d be neck and neck with Drew Mendoza for third place on my third base list, but he gets the bump to second here with the shortstops. At either spot, he’s a definite first round talent for me.

Falling behind Perez and Kieboom are names like Gavin Lux, Grae Kessinger, Nonie Williams, and Nicholas Quintana. I’m not sure there’s a bad way to rank those guys at this point. Lux is a really intriguing young hitter with the chance to come out of this draft as arguably the best all-around hitter (contact, pop, patience) in this high school class. That may be a bit rich, but I’d at least say his straight hit tool ranks only below Mickey Moniak, Carlos Cortes, and Joe Rizzo. If his bat plays above-average in all three phases – he could/should be there with contact and approach while his raw power floats somewhere in that average to above-average range – then he’d certainly be in the mix. A fun name that I’ve heard on Lux that may or may not have been influenced by geography: a bigger, stronger Scooter Gennett. Here’s some of what Baseball America had on Gennett in his draft year…

He profiles as an offensive second baseman, while Florida State intends for him to start at shortstop as a freshman. He’s a grinder with surprising power and bat speed for his size (a listed 5-foot-10, 170 pounds), and though he can be streaky, his bat is his best tool. He’s a better runner on the field than in showcase events, but he’s closer to average than above-average in that department. Defensively he gets the most of his ability, with his range and arm better suited for the right side of the infield than the left. He’s agile, though, and a solid athlete. Gennett would be a crucial get for Florida State, if he gets there. Most scouts consider him a third-to-fifth round talent.

A bigger, stronger, and arguably better (especially when likelihood to stick at short is factored in) Gennett feels about right, both in terms of draft stock (second to fourth round talent, maybe with a shot to sneak into the late first) and potential pro outcome. It should be noted that Lux’s defensive future is somewhat in flux. I think he’s athletic enough with enough arm to stick at short for a while, but there are many others who think he’s got second base written all over him. A lot of that likely has to do with his arm – it’s looked strong to me with a really quick release, but there’s debate on that – so I’d bet that there’s little consensus from team to team about his long-term position. Teams that like him to pick him high in the draft will like him best as a shortstop, so it’s my hunch that he’ll at least get a shot to play in the six-spot as a pro to begin his career.

I really like Kessinger’s hands, range, and first step actions at short. He’s just a half-step behind Perez – if that – defensively. Offensively he’s more athlete with bat speed than finished product, but you could do a lot worse than what he gives you as a starting point. Williams matches Kessinger’s athleticism, speed (both of the bat and foot variety), and defensive upside, but the latter area is where Kessinger’s present value trumps where Williams is currently at. Williams could get there, but Kessinger has the head start. Many have slid Williams to center field on their boards, but he’s come on fast as an infielder since his inconsistent showing in the dirt this past summer. The defensive gap between Kessinger and Williams is potentially made up by the advantage that Williams has shown in the power department. He’s currently more physical than Kessinger with a swing geared toward more natural pop. Two similarly talented players with just enough differences to keep things interesting; I like Kessinger by a hair, but that could flip by June.

I’m running out of time, but I’m still not quite sure what to feel about Quintana as a prospect. I like him a lot, but I’m not quite sure yet how high “a lot” will get him on the board. Though most I talked to saw him moving off of shortstop sooner rather than later – second, third, and even catcher were mentioned as long-term spots for him – I kind of like the strong armed righthander to stick at short for the foreseeable future. Offensively, I believe. Quintana can hit and hit for power. If his approach comes around, then defensive questions won’t loom quite as large.

Jose Miranda is a particularly well-rounded shortstop with a strong hit tool, solid approach, and reliable hands. Grant Bodison is a little older than his peers, but with a plus arm, plus speed, and an average or better shot to stick at shortstop, he’s a fine prospect. His approach as a hitter has always stood out as particularly intriguing, so I’m more willing to overlook the extra few month lead he has on much of his current competition than I might be otherwise. Hudson Sanchez, a righthanded bat with some thump out of Texas, is on the opposite side of the age spectrum as one of this class’s youngest prospects. Though not quite the same prospect, it’s worth keeping in mind that Sanchez is just a few weeks behind Perez. Only one team will get Perez in the first round, so the value of nabbing players like Kieboom (second if you’re very lucky), Lux (same), and then one or more of Kessinger, Williams, Quintana, Jaxon Williams, Miranda, Bodison, Hamilton, Sanchez, Francisco Thomas, Cam Shepherd, and Alexis Torres (all third round or later) will certainly be on the forefront of twenty-nine other teams’ minds in this upcoming draft.

*****

SS Anthony Prato (Poly Prep Country Day School, New York)
SS Austin Masel (Belmont Hill HS, Massachusetts)
SS Austyn Tengan (Cypress HS, California)
SS Brady Whalen (Union HS, Washington)
SS Branden Fryman (Tate HS, Florida)
SS Brandon Chinea (Florida Christian HS, Florida)
SS Brandon Hauswald (University School of Jackson, Tennessee)
SS Brian Rey (Deltona HS, Florida)
SS Cameron Cannon (Mountain Ridge HS, Arizona)
SS Camryn Williams (Gaither HS, Florida)
SS Carter Aldrete (Montery HS, California)
SS Cayman Richardson (Hanover HS, Virginia)
SS David Hamilton (San Marcos HS, Texas)
SS Delvin Perez (International Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
SS Duncan Pence (Farragut HS, Tennessee)
SS Francisco Thomas (Osceloa HS, Puerto Rico)
SS Grae Kessinger (Oxford HS, Mississippi)
SS Grant Bodison (Mauldin HS, South Carolina)
SS Grant Little (Midland Christian HS, Texas)
SS Hunter Lessard (Sunrise Mountain HS, Arizona)
SS Jeremy Houston (Mt Carmel HS, Illinois)
SS Kevin Rolon (PR Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
SS Kevin Welsh (Northern Burlington HS, New Jersey)
SS Logan Davidson (Providence HS, North Carolina)
SS Matthew Rule (Kearney HS, Missouri)
SS Mitchell Golden (Marietta HS, Georgia)
SS Nicholas Novak (Stillwater HS, Minnesota)
SS Nick Derr (Sarasota Community HS, Florida)
SS Nonie Williams (Turner HS, Kansas)
SS Palmer Ford (Virgil Grissom HS, Alabama)
SS Peter Hutzal (Ernest Manning SS, Alberta)
SS Ryan Layne (West Jessamine HS, Kentucky)
SS Sal Gozzo (Sheehan HS, Connecticut)
SS Samad Taylor (Corona HS, California)
SS Tyler Roeder (Jefferson HS, Iowa)
SS Zachary Watson (West Ouachita HS, Louisiana)
SS/2B Alexis Torres (PR Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
SS/2B Cam Shepherd (Peachtree Ridge HS, Georgia)
SS/2B Gavin Lux (Indian Trail Academy, Wisconsin)
SS/2B Jakob Newton (Oakville Trafalgar SS, Ontario)
SS/2B Nicholas Quintana (Arbor View HS, Nevada)
SS/2B Will Brooks (Madison Central HS, Mississippi)
SS/3B Carter Kieboom (Walton HS, Georgia)
SS/3B Hudson Sanchez (Southlake Carroll HS, Texas)
SS/3B Jose Miranda (PR Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
SS/3B Josh Hollifield (Weddington HS, North Carolina)
SS/CF Jaxon Williams (BF Terry HS, Texas)
SS/OF DeShawn Lookout (Westmoore HS, Oklahoma)
SS/OF Jaylon McLaughlin (Santa Monica HS, California)
SS/RHP Quincy McAfee (Westside HS, Texas)
SS/RHP Will Proctor (Mira Costa HS, California)

2016 MLB Draft – High School Second Basemen

The average draft placement of the first high school second base prospect off the board since I’ve been running this site has been pick 200. Forgive me for rounding up — it’s actually 199.5 — but Major League Baseball currently doesn’t allow teams to select a player only halfway. I’m not a big draft trend guy, but that seems worth noting. Even if we get rid of the outlier that was last year (Cobie Vance at 484), the average first pick only moves down to 152. LeVon Washington (30 in 2009) and Forrest Wall (35 in 2014), the only top fifty picks in the group, represent the lows and the highs that come with taking a prep second baseman early…and Wall, much as I like him, has a long way between where his and the big leagues.

While Washington and Wall may have been drafted high, neither has yet made it to the top level. We have to go back to 2008 to find the last drafted and signed high school positive value big league player with LJ Hoes (pick 81) and his career 0.1 rWAR. Then there’s Blake DeWitt (pick 28 in 2004), Travis Denker (pick 631 in 2003), Josh Barfield (pick 120 in 2001), and Nate McLouth (pick 749 in 2000), though McLouth’s one whole game in the Sally League at second base means he’s in on more of a technicality than anything else. Interesting to note that Hoes, DeWitt, and Barfield were the first overall prep second base prospect off the board. That will go down as some support for the idea that it’s a one and done position in terms of prospect depth.

So on one hand, history has been predictably unkind to high school second basemen. On the other hand, maybe this will be the year! The bar is awfully low after all. I’d argue that the best trio of prospects in any year since I’ve covered the draft was 2014’s first three 2B off the board: Forrest Wall, Shane Mardirosian, and Luke Dykstra. That’s very much propped up by Wall, the best second base prospect drafted since…DeWitt, I guess? Revisionist history would say Jose Vidro in 1992 and/or Ray Durham in 1990, sixth and fifth round picks respectively. It’s a minor cheat to include them because of how far they fell, but at least they were the first prep second basemen off the board in their draft years. I wouldn’t put any one of Carlos Cortes, Morgan McCullough, or Cole Stobbe on the same level of Wall in 2014, but on the whole it might be the best trio since I’ve started in 2009.

Some love Cortes’s hit tool. Others like it way less. That’s the unique brand of analysis you can only get here. Count me in as part of the group who strongly believes in Cortes as a hitter. I wanted to add more to back up that claim, but turns out I only would have plagiarized myself. Here’s most of what I wanted to say now from five months ago…

I know I can get a little weird with wanting to look back at previous years when I’m supposed to be talking about the draft to come, so, finally, we’re back to the present day. A comp that isn’t a comp that I can’t shake is Carlos Cortes as the next Forrest Wall. Stylistically, it doesn’t work: the two are very different athletes with different bodies and different levels of defensive aptitude. As hitters, however, I think they bring a lot of the same good stuff to the table. Wall went higher (35th) than all but one HS 2B (LeVon Washington in 2009) since I started the site. I think Cortes can top that in 2016. The other player frequently compared to Cortes is Kolten Wong. Wong went 22nd overall to the Cardinals in 2011. That might be his draft ceiling, but it’s a pretty darn nice one.

I’m not a scout, but I’ve seen enough of Cortes to feel comfortable with sharing my general observations about him with those who are. “Boy, that Cortes sure can hit,” I’d say with confidence. “I’m no scout (note: I say this a lot in these chats), but if that’s not a potential plus hit tool then I’m not sure I know what one is,” I’d continue. Picture this all said with supreme confidence. How can you watch a guy like Cortes and not come away loving his bat? The swing works, there’s tons of bat speed, he’s strong enough to punish mistakes (above-average raw power?), and I’m not sure I saw him take a bad plate appearance all summer. As somebody who is constantly preaching about the importance of having a plan of attack with every at bat, that last part really resonated with me. I was so ready for everybody to agree with me and bask in the glow of the “attaboys” I so richly deserved.

Well, it didn’t happen. To say that others like Cortes’ hit tool way less than I do (and I’m not special, by the way: lots of smarter internet folk than I love Cortes’ bat) is an understatement. That’s not a universal belief – few draft thoughts are, especially in December – but what I had figured to be one of the draft’s best singular tools is a bit more of a divisive topic than expected. So if you come here seeking the value of the majority, then think of Cortes as a wait-and-see early round pick. If you’re here for my own amateur opinion, then start printing those “Carlos Cortes: First Day MLB Draft Pick” memorabilia t-shirts now.

(This analysis lacks nuance as it only focuses on Cortes’ hit tool. One could like his hit tool a lot and still view him as a tough player to profile because of his unique defensive skill set. Some might see him as a future utility player who projects as a tweener without a true position. Others could view him as a wait-and-see prospect not because of his bat but because of the hope he can play behind the plate at the next level. He’s a tough guy to judge even before you factor in the varied opinions about his bat. Fun player to track and evaluate, though.)

In almost any other year (and in many other lists that don’t include Cortes with the second base prospects), Morgan McCullough would be a fine choice for the top spot. He can run, defend, and, most importantly, hit. If it all works he’s a regular at second for a long time, though all of the “there is no such thing as a teenage second base prospect” caveats apply. As much as I like McCullough – and I really do, honest – he strikes me as the kind of guy who falls below where he should go and winds up having to prove himself to pro guys all over again in college. I hope I’m wrong. Will Proctor and Cole Stobbe both might interest teams as potential shortstops at the highest level. Alexander Santos is one of the many New Jersey products in this year’s class with a shot to go in the top ten rounds and make an impact on pro ball. In what might be one of those draft quirks that only interests me, there is or will be a New Jersey prospect on each of these early HS lists except first base.

That covered a lot, but, wait, there’s more!

I worry a little about there being too much swing-and-miss in Stobbe’s game to fully take advantage of his offensive gifts against better competition, but at his best he’s been a guy who has gotten very intriguing Brian Dozier comps. Tyler Fitzgerald has gotten strong reviews for improvements he’s made as a hitter all spring. His defense hasn’t quite gotten the same love, but he’s got the athleticism and an average arm to potentially handle center field if a move out of the infield is necessary. He’ll be ranked highly enough in this space to make going pro a viable option if he’s picked where I think his talent warrants, but I do wonder how many rounds he could boost his draft stock if he decided to enroll at Louisville instead. I still like Alex Santos as an advanced bat who can hang up the middle defensively. I also like that Santos, like Fitzgerald, still has some room on his frame to pack on a few more good pounds and start moving more doubles over the wall for homers.

My tentative ranking here would go Cortes, McCullough, Stobbe, Fitzgerald, and Santos. Then Michael Feliz and Shane Martinez followed by the rest.

2B Alex Brewer (Forrest HS, Tennessee)
2B Ben Baird (Agoura HS, California)
2B Cody Oerther (The First Academy, Florida)
2B Morgan McCullough (West Seattle HS, Washington)
2B Nathan Blakeney (Wesleyan Christian Academy, North Carolina)
2B Parker McCoy (Walton HS, Georgia)
2B Ryan Reynolds (Ouachita Christian HS, Louisiana)
2B Tyler Malone (Woodcreek HS, California)
2B/3B Michael Feliz (IMG Academy, Florida)
2B/3B Riley King (Collins Hill HS, Texas)
2B/OF Austin Todd (Round Rock HS, Texas)
2B/OF Carlos Cortes (Oviedo HS, Florida)
2B/RHP Breonn Pooler (Sparkman HS, Alabama)
2B/SS Alex Santos (Don Bosco Prep, New Jersey)
2B/SS Austin Wilhite (Buford HS, Georgia)
2B/SS Brigham Mooney (Blue Springs South HS, Missouri)
2B/SS Cole Stobbe (Millard West HS, Nebraska)
2B/SS Jean Carlos Correa Oppenheimer (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
2B/SS Kobe Lopez (Archbishop Edward McCarthy HS, Florida)
2B/SS Logan Goodnight (Linsly HS, West Virginia)
2B/SS Paul Benitez (Lake Nona HS, Florida)
2B/SS Shane Martinez (John North HS, California)
2B/SS Tyler Fitzgerald (Rochester HS, Illinois)

2016 MLB Draft – High School First Basemen

Prep rankings are close to being finalized, but I’m trying to hang on to the last possible second to allow for any last minute pop-up guys ready to crash the party a place on the list. For now, a true follow list only of all the high school first base prospects that have caught my attention for one reason or another this draft cycle.

List is alphabetical, so obviously don’t infer anything from the rankings. It would be pretty cool if the rankings just so happened to be alphabetical, though. That would be some kind of coincidence.

Who am I missing? Did I mess up the spelling of a player’s name and/or botch his high school listing? And how stupid am I for daring to rank the J’s over the L’s? Let me know in the comments, on Twitter, or via email. The more the merrier even at this late stage.

*****

DID YOU KNOW that drafting HS first basemen is stupid? Well, stupid is unduly harsh, so let’s say…problematic. Before we go any further, I should point out that I don’t necessarily agree with that conclusion – I’m actively disagreeing with my own conclusion, so, yeah, great start to this piece – because I think every player should be judged individually and historical draft trends aren’t particularly predictive in nature, but, damn, high school first basemen have been a poor investment so far this millennium. Since I started this site in 2009, there have literally been ZERO positive value first basemen drafted and signed out of high school. Only two have made the big leagues: Christian Yelich and Jonathan Singleton. Now obviously the former name has been pretty darn valuable, but that’s a clear cheat. Despite being announced as a first baseman on draft day, everybody knew he was an outfielder. He’s gone on to play exactly zero innings at first so far as a professional. So the only other big league first baseman drafted and signed out of high school is Jonathan Singleton, a negative value player to date by both rWAR and fWAR. Ouch.

The best hopes to reverse that trend are (in whatever order you like) Josh Naylor, Bobby Bradley, Josh Ockimey, Dominic Smith, Cody Bellinger, Jake Bauers, Matt Olson, Dan Vogelbach, and, because I still believe, a Jonathan Singleton rebound. I’d also add Kolton Kendrick to the list, but he’s admittedly a long way off. All in all we have lots of nice prospects, but no one player that you can point to as a future long-term regular at first with a high degree of confidence. Smith is the most likely future regular in my view (best all-around game), Ockimey has been scorching to start 2016, and Vogelbach just needs a place to play because he can really fucking hit. Maybe one or more of these prospects redeems the position. We’ll have to wait and see.

Anyway, if we expand the hunt for high school first basemen all the way back to 2000 — same year I started high school myself, incidentally — the list adds some pretty impressive names. Of course, we’re talking quality over quantity here as there are still very few names considering we’re now covering sixteen drafts. Going from most recent to least, we add Eric Hosmer, Giancarlo Stanton (another cheat with no innings at 1B as a pro), Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Logan Morrison, Mike Carp, Kyle Blanks, Prince Fielder, James Loney, Travis Ishikawa, Casey Kotchman, and Adrian Gonzalez. Those are your positive value drafted and signed high school first basemen since 2000. If we’re being real, the list reads Hosmer, Freeman, Rizzo, Fielder, and Gonzalez. Five stars in sixteen drafts isn’t a great hit rate (obviously), but the magnitude of their stardom is pretty impressive. Maybe that can be our amended conclusion about drafting high school first basemen: odds are very much stacked against you historically, but if you find a winner then you’ve really found a winner. The grand total of positive value professional first basemen drafted and signed out of high school since 2000 is ten, though you can bump that to an even dozen if you want to include both Marlins outfielders. Taking the wide view on high school first basemen helps ease my mind somewhat about the utility of such prospects. I do wonder what’s changed (if anything: this could just be a function of needing more patience with the post-2009 group), but that’s a different post for a different day.

The original intent of this post was to actually talk about the high school first base prospects eligible for the 2016 MLB Draft. I suppose it’s time to actually do that. But before we do, here’s this…

2015: Josh Naylor (1), Corey Zangari (6), Kolton Kendrick (8), Seamus Curran (8), Curtis Terry (13)

2014: Bobby Bradley (3), Josh Ockimey (5), Dash Winningham (8), Justin Bellinger (11), Owen Taylor (27)

2013: Dominic Smith (1), Cody Bellinger (4), Jake Bauers (7), David Denson (15), Randolph Gassaway (16)

2012: Matt Olson (1s), Keon Barnum (1s), Justin Chigbogu (4), Nick Halamandaris (8), Kristian Brito (11)

2011: Dan Vogelbach (2), Kevin Cron (3), Trevor Gretzky (7), Bubba Jones (7), John Alexander (8)

2010: Christian Yelich (1), Travis Flores (11), Tyler Kuresa (11), Juan Rosado (11), Sean Dwyer (15)

2009: Jeff Malm (5), Jon Singleton (8), Geoffrey Baldwin (10), Corey Davis (15), David Washington (15)

Those are the first five high school first basemen (round in parentheses) drafted every year since the site started. I bring this up because I think 2016 has a good chance of having the most impressive top five out of all of those years. 2013 will be hard to beat – again, let’s assume we’re putting Yelich’s contributions from the 2010 group aside for now – and there are names in 2011, 2014, and 2015 that could do big things, but I really like what 2016 could be. Of course, any such high school position ranking low on the defensive totem pole needs to come with the caveat that players at certain spots on the diamond (1B, corner OF, sometimes 2B) are made and not born. Players from other positions eventually become first basemen. As long as we all know that going in, we’re good. There are a lot of reasons not to be excited about high school first base prospects, but that shouldn’t stop us from giving each individual player his own evaluation. It’s a little bit like how one can believe that man is evil while individual men can be good. Or something like that. Anyway, I like these guys. Let’s talk about them.

The first name on the original list was Christian Jones. It’s now just a few weeks away from the draft and I still like Jones as much as I did back then. The only glaring negative that I see with the young lefty from Washington right now is the fact he’s never eaten a hamburger. I can kind of see the hot dog thing – I love them, but get why one might want to avoid them – but the hamburger (cheeseburger, ideally) is one of mankind’s finest culinary achievements. Thankfully, Jones earns points back for his love of seafood…and his excellent athleticism, easy above-average raw power, and consistent ability to square balls up and rocket line drives to all fields. The only trepidation I have with Jones being on this list is the growing likelihood that he can move well enough to handle left field. Everything about his offensive and athletic profile points towards future big league regular.

With all that said, I think Jones would fall just behind a new addition to the first base ranks. Joe Rizzo, the man without a position, slides into the top spot here at first base. My strong hunch is that whatever team drafts him early will do so with the idea to play him at a more demanding defensive spot – could be third, could be second, could even be behind the plate – but eventually he’ll settle in as a professional first baseman. Offensively, I’ve gotten a Don Mattingly comp on him that I obviously find intriguing. The better comp, however, is one that takes a little getting used to. If I had to type up an anonymous scout quote to back it up, it might sound like this: “Well, I don’t like the body, but he can really swing it. Some guys just have a knack for hitting it hard every time, and Rizzo is one of ‘em. Pretty swing, above-average to plus power, and more athletic than he looks. Can probably fake it elsewhere on the diamond, but I’d stick him at first and just have him focus on piling up hits. Reminds me of a young John Kruk.” So there you have it. The anonymous scout that I made up has put a young John Kruk comp out there. Nice work, anonymous scout. I like it.

(It’s also worth pointing out that an actual scout – i.e., not one that is actually me in disguise – mentioned Bobby Bradley as a recent draft comp for Rizzo. I don’t hate it!)

Ulysses Cantu is Joe Rizzo’s mirror image. Almost everything written above about the lefthanded Rizzo applies to righty swinging Cantu. I’m even less bullish on Cantu sticking anywhere but first base as a professional, so the pressure will be on for him to hit early and often upon signing his first contract. I see a little less hit tool, similar power, and an arguably better (trying to sort this out in limited PA for HS hitters is damn near impossible) approach. I think all that adds up to an overall offensive edge for Rizzo, but it’s really close.

If we’re going to pair Rizzo and Cantu together, then why not do the same for Christian Jones and Walker Robbins? The two lefthanded bats have very similar offensive ceilings. In a fun twist, Robbins, a legitimate pitching prospect with a fastball that ranges from 87-92 MPH, takes the place of Joey Wentz in this updated top five. Wentz, as many know, is a lefthanded pitching prospect all the way, but that wasn’t always the case. There were some fools (e.g., me) who thought his pro future would come as a slugging first baseman. Maybe there are some out there that think of Robbins more as a pitcher – I haven’t talked to any, but I’ve learned not to make assumptions with low-90s lefties – but at this point I’m pretty comfortable with him as a single-digit round hitting prospect. That’s some nice prospect symmetry right there.

Anyway, much like Jones, Robbins can hit. His power is real, he’s an excellent athlete, and he’s right around average with most of his run times. Also like Jones, the only real question I have with Robbins being where he is on this list is whether or not a pro team will challenge him with some outfield work after signing. I’d be fine with that, obviously – he can run, he can throw, and it’s not my money – but it would be kind of a shame to not have him play first base at the next level. I haven’t personally seen all of the players listed below, but of the ones I have, he’s easily the most impressive defender at first. It’s not the same as being a plus defender at catcher, center, or short, but it’s not nothing.

I know some who prefer TJ Collett to Joe Rizzo. I can see it. I’ve recently become quite enamored with Collett’s offensive game. If you read the site regularly, you know how much I like Zack Collins of Miami. I get a lot of the same positive vibes when watching (and reading/hearing about) Collett. I don’t think a team would be crazy to use a late first round pick on him, but odds are very good that they won’t have to. Getting him at any point past the first hundred picks or so would be great value.

I think my tentative rankings here are a little less tentative than in other spots. The only major changes I can foresee would be based on shuffling guys in and out based on late developing defensive switch information. I’d go Rizzo, Jones, Collett, Cantu, Robbins, Andrew Daschbach, Bryant Packard, Dylan Carlson, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Spencer Brickhouse in the top ten. The first five I feel pretty good about. The next three after that are all really close. I almost put Carlson with the outfielders just to avoid making any kind of decision, tentative or not, on him now; he’s another player like Robbins who has gone the opposite of Wentz (lefthanded pitcher early in the process to first base/outfield prospect now). Then there’s a bit of a drop after the top eight. All in all, a pretty good group worth getting excited about…even in the face of overwhelming odds.

(By the way, further research directed me to this. I now take it all back with Jones and his views on hamburgers and hot dogs. For those unwilling to click a link to learn more about a teenager baseball player’s culinary quirks, the article notes that Jones has avoided both burgers and dogs due to his belief that there is “too much going on” between the buns. That’s amazing. I’m prepared to move him up fifty spots on my board for that alone.)

1B Andru Summerall (Lake Park HS, Florida)
1B Bernard Gilot (The First Academy, Florida)
1B Bryant Packard (DH Conley HS, North Carolina)
1B Cole Zabowski (Lawrenceville HS, Georgia)
1B Cuba Bess (Fruita Monument HS, Colorado)
1B Easton Bents (Grants Pass HS, Oregon)
1B Jaquez Williams (East Coweta HS, Georgia)
1B Lael Lockhart (Friendswood HS, Texas)
1B Spencer Brickhouse (Zebulon HS, North Carolina)
1B Zach Zientarski (Boca Raton Community HS, Florida)
1B/3B Andrew Daschbach (Sacred Heart Prep, California)
1B/3B Joe Rizzo (Oakton HS, Virginia)
1B/C TJ Collett (Terre Haute North Vigo HS, Indiana)
1B/LHP Dylan Carlson (Elk Grove HS, California)
1B/LHP Vinnie Pasquantino (James River HS, Virginia)
1B/LHP Walker Robbins (George County HS, Mississippi)
1B/OF Austin Galindo (University HS, Illinois)
1B/OF Chris Winkel (Amity Regional Senior HS, Connecticut)
1B/OF Christian Jones (Federal Way HS, Washington)
1B/RHP Ulysses Cantu (Boswell HS, Texas)

2016 MLB Draft – High School Catchers

Prep rankings are close to being finalized, but I’m trying to hang on to the last possible second to allow for any last minute pop-up guys ready to crash the party a place on the list. For now, a true follow list only of all the high school catchers that have caught my attention for one reason or another this draft cycle.

List is alphabetical, so obviously don’t infer anything from the rankings. It would be pretty cool if the rankings just so happened to be alphabetical, though. That would be some kind of coincidence.

Who am I missing? Did I mess up the spelling of a player’s name and/or botch his high school listing? And how stupid am I for daring to rank the J’s over the L’s? Let me know in the comments, on Twitter, or via email. The more the merrier even at this late stage.

*****

Before we get into a few words about the catchers below, a quick reminder about something I’ve noticed since following the draft with a little more of a discerning eye the last eight years. I can show my work to back it up — I’m happy to share the data if anybody is curious, but it’s late as I write this and I’m too lazy to dig it up preemptively (slightly less lazy AM EDIT: here’s some of it) — but this is one of my findings…

High school catchers remain one of the most consistently overrated prospect commodities leading up to the draft each year. Every year I expect a nice long run of prep catchers in the early going of the draft and every year I’m confused as the guys I like best have to sit and wait and wait and wait.

I love prep catchers. I think prep catchers can be a good investment because they can be shaped in important organization specific ways that isn’t a real consideration at other positions. But the simple fact remains: high school catchers don’t fare well on draft day. Only thirty-one high school catchers were drafted last year and only ten of that thirty-one could be talked into signing pro contracts. I’m giving you over twice that total amount on the list below. You can do the math from there. With that introduction having sufficiently dampened the mood, let’s talk 2016 high school catchers!

I have a sneaking suspicion that Herbert Iser is going to be a major draft day steal. He’s got some of the best all-around offensive game (power, approach, bat speed) of any catcher going. I like what I’ve seen of him defensively, but there are admittedly a few things to be worked on; in fact, the exact quote from my notes reads “impressed by glove, though not without some rough edges.” Ben Rortvedt has first round catcher tools; his defensive upside isn’t quite as high as Cooper Johnson’s – it’s close, but Johnson is in a league of his own – but his offensive edge more than makes up the difference. I’d say Rortvedt is the best bet of this group to be first off the board.

Mario Feliciano has huge power, a cannon for an arm, and legitimate questions about his ability to stick behind the plate. I err on the side of positivity when it comes to teenagers, but that’s a philosophy admittedly grounded more on silly youthful ideals than empirical evidence. In Feliciano’s case, there’s enough positive buzz that he can work his way to an average defensive future than not. His issues right now stem largely from inexperience at the position rather than inability to do the job. The fact that youth is firmly on his side – he’ll play his entire first full season at 18-years-old next year, assuming he signs – only adds to his appeal. Writing and then re-reading this paragraph alone has kind of sold me on Feliciano as a potential top three to five prep catcher in this class…and even that might be underselling him.

My extremely tentative top ten: Iser, Rortvedt, Debo, Johnson, Amditis, Feliciano, Sullivan, Smith, Yerzy, and Dillard. All-caps FAVORITES (not necessarily the “best” prospects, but guys I’d like to think I identified early on as showing traits that appealed to me specifically) include Iser, Amditis, Smith, and Handley. If I added FAVORITES this late in the game, I’d also throw Feliciano into the mix. Rortvedt would also be considered because he’s great, but I think the window to lay any claim to him is long gone. I also wasn’t sure where to sneak this in above, so I’ll say it here: after running my list by a few people who know things recently, the one name that was mentioned multiple times as being too low was Thomas Dillard. A Chris Okey comp was pretty popular for him. So there you go.

(Even though this is from December, there’s still some good — and relevant! — stuff here. Worth checking out for a little more background on the top guys and potential sleepers…)

C Adley Rutschman (Sherwood HS, Oregon)
C Alan Marrero (International Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
C Alberto Schmidt (Colegio Angel David, Puerto Rico)
C Andrew Millas (Belleville East HS, Illinois)
C Andrew Miller (Frisco HS, Texas)
C Andy Thomas (Murrieta Mesa HS, California)
C Andy Yerzy (York Mills Collegiate Institute, Ontario)
C Anthony Mulrine (St Thomas Aquinas HS, Florida)
C Austin Biggar (Parkview HS, Georgia)
C Beau Orlando (Cy-Fair HS, Texas)
C Ben Rortvedt (Verona Area HS, Wisconsin)
C Bradley Debo (Orange HS, North Carolina)
C Brandon Martorano (Christian Brothers Academy, New Jersey)
C Brian Wicker (Ponca City HS, Oklahoma)
C Christian Leonard (St. Thomas More HS, Louisiana)
C Cipriano Primicias (Michael Power-St. Joseph SS, Ontario)
C Cole Jackson (Sandy Creek HS, Georgia)
C Cooper Johnson (Carmel Catholic HS, Illinois)
C Dalton Hill (Dunbar HS, Kentucky)
C Darnell Domenech (International Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
C David Clawson (Dana Hills HS, California)
C Eric Ortiz (Colegio Católico San Juan Apostol, Puerto Rico)
C Ettenied Garcia (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
C Herbert Iser (Killian HS, Florida)
C Hunter Coleman (Midland HS, Texas)
C Hunter Oliver (Cleveland HS, Tennessee)
C Jacob Kalusniak (Francis Howell North HS, Missouri)
C Jacob Matheny (Westminster Christian Academy, Missouri)
C Jake Sullivan (Durant HS, Florida)
C Jared Herron (Trinity Prep HS, Florida)
C Jaxx Groshans (Magnolia HS, Texas)
C Keelyn Johnson (Pineville HS, Louisiana)
C Korey Lee (Vista HS, California)
C Kyle McCann (Lambert HS, Georgia)
C Luke Berryhill (River Ridge HS, California)
C Marshall Skinner (Cypress Ranch HS, Texas)
C Maverick Handley (Mullen HS, Colorado)
C Michael Amditis (Boca Raton Community HS, Florida)
C Michael Neustifter (Hebron HS, Texas)
C Mike Kilner (Padua Franciscan HS, Ohio)
C Nathan David Torres Soto (Puerto Rico)
C Nicholas Kahle (Chaminade Prep, California)
C Onix Vega (Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
C Paul Gozzo (Sheehan HS, Connecticut)
C Santino Miozzi (Lake Nona HS, Florida)
C Thomas Dillard (Oxford HS, Mississippi)
C Ty Friedrich (Lower Dauphin HS, Pennsylvania)
C Tyler Duvall (Lebanon HS, Ohio)
C Tyler Gordon (Simeon Career Academy, Illinois)
C Tyler Haselman (Liberty HS, Washington)
C Tyson Zanski (Grand Junction HS, Colorado)
C Zachary Humphreys (Midlothian HS, Texas)
C/1B Mario Feliciano (Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
C/1B Thomas Johns (Clay-Chalkville HS, Alabama)
C/2B Rankin Woley (The Westminster Schools, Georgia)
C/3B Drake Frix (Darlington HS, Georgia)
C/3B Max Guzman (St. Brendan HS, Florida)
C/3B Pedro Pages (Gulliver Schools, Florida)
C/3B Sam Huff (Arcadia HS, Arizona)
C/OF Blake Sabol (Aliso Niguel HS, California)
C/OF Logan Foster (Lincoln Southwest HS, Nebraska)
C/OF Marc Coffers (Barron Collier HS, Florida)
C/OF Ryan Orr (La Costa Canyon HS, California)
C/RHP Peyton Henry (Pleasant Grove HS, Utah)
C/RHP Sam Ferri (Notre Dame Prep, Illinois)
C/RHP Zack Smith (Eastern Wayne HS, North Carolina)

The Philadelphia Phillies and 1-1

I grew up less than twenty miles from City Hall in downtown Philadelphia. After a college detour in Boston, I returned to my hometown where I have now lived a ten minute subway ride from Citizens Bank Park the better part of the past decade. I’d say a good 80% of my friends and family who are into baseball would call themselves Phillies fans. So it’s probably no stunner that the Phillies having the first overall pick in next month’s MLB Draft has been a go-to topic of discussion of late. It’s not as though people are stopping me on the street frantically asking about PUK OR GROOME, but I have gotten emails and texts from people I haven’t talked to in months curious if I knew anything about which way the Phillies are leaning. Those messages back where always “off the record,” but it occurred to me that there’s really no point in being secretive. I’m not a journalist. I’m not a reporter. Integrity? What’s that? And there’s always the distinct possibility that I’m making stuff up to get sweet sweet page views on the website I haven’t made a single penny off of in eight years. So I’ll lay out a little bit of what I’ve heard and deduced from talking to some of my friends in the game. I should note that said friends are largely in low places; the highest ranking sources I can count on aren’t particularly high up on the decision-making chain. I think they are reliable contacts all the same, but I think that’s something worth keeping in mind. Here we go…

I think that the Phillies are far less enamored with AJ Puk than the national media would have you believe. While it’s true that their preference since last October has been to use their first pick on a quick-moving college starting pitcher, the idea that they zeroed in on Puk has been blown way out of proportion. While I’m not personally sure what to make of this — as far as I know, Pat Gillick’s one and only fall ball appearance was in Gainesville, and that has to mean something, right? — it does make some sense in the larger draft context. The odds of any team focusing so intently on one player so early in the process is a little hard to believe. Of course, the obvious question then becomes if not Puk then which college pitcher might they prefer? I legitimately have no idea. My own two cents says there’s no college pitcher with the kind of upside worth spending the first overall pick on. This class has lots of depth, lots of relatively high floor mid-rotation types, and a few young guys with number two starter ceilings, but you need to be greedier than that when you’re picking first. Which brings me to…

I think Jay Groome is still very much in the mix for Philadelphia at 1-1. There’s a lot to unpack with this one, but I’m 100% not buying the Phillies not having serious interest in Groome. Common sense alone says they are at least doing their due diligence, independent sources confirm real interest in the young lefty, and my own two eyes have seen high-ranking Phillies front office personnel every single time Groome has touched a mound this spring. The Phillies may not want to take a high school pitcher with their first pick, but if Groome or one of his 2016 HS peers can separate themselves from the pack between now and June then it might just force their hand.

I think a lot of the perceived uncertainty at the top of the draft is something that the Phillies are trying their best to work to their advantage, especially as it pertains to contract negotiations. I think they have been very vocal in a private public way (i.e., well-placed leaks to the industry’s biggest draft writers) about their preference for a college arm. I think that’s being done strategically. Long story short, I think the Phillies have a vested financial interest in making the number one pick as big a mystery for as long as they can. That may not be a particularly revelatory observation, but I think many are taking the reported rumors about which way the Phillies are leaning as facts rather than messaging straight from the front office.

I think this would have been a lot more controversial before so many started to turn on him these last few weeks, but I think the internet — myself included — likes Groome a lot more as a prospect than many actual scouting departments. Not one team source I spoke to was willing to claim Groome as the clear number one high school pitching prospect on their current “board.” A few said that he was in the top spot but it was still too close to call (there are no actual boards stacked up just yet, but teams are getting closer by the day to setting some meaningful albeit flexible rankings) while others said he was part of a larger mix of prospects that includes Riley Pint, Ian Anderson, Braxton Garrett, and Charles King. I’ve heard that Groome’s draft floor is much lower than many on the outside think. I think this is something to keep in mind if/when the Phillies pass on Groome; doing so is a perfectly legitimate baseball decision, even if some of the louder internet voices (again, potentially even a dope like me) disagree. There’s no consensus at the top this year, so it’s hard to make a “bad” pick in terms of process. Results…we’ll have to wait and see. I’d still take Groome if the decision was mine, but I’ve admittedly softened on the idea that it’s him or bust at this point.

I think that a disproportionate amount of attention — I’m guilty of this as well, clearly — has been spent on the pitchers the Phillies are considering at the top of the draft. Prep outfielders Blake Rutherford (a favorite of some of the older brass) and Mickey Moniak (for those who want a do-over of 2010 when Christian Yelich was taken before they had their shot at him) are both very much in play for the top spot while college outfielders Kyle Lewis and Corey Ray are long shots at best. The two high school guys are in the midst of a huge week for them as certain members of the Phillies brass — perhaps a former manager known for his ability to identify and develop hitters — are getting some extended up close and personal looks. Interestingly enough, I’ve heard no buzz — like, seriously none at all — about Delvin Perez. Could be that he’s far enough off the radar that his name doesn’t even realistically come up. Could be that the Phillies are running the ultimate smokescreen. Odd to not hear his name come up at all, though.

I think the possibility of an underslot first overall pick out of left field (though likely not literally a left fielder…) is real. Zack Collins is a name that came up more than once to help get this plan rolling. High school prospects Josh Lowe (Almaraz Georgia connection) and Nolan Jones (fair amount of Phillies heat throughout the spring and very strategic in their deployment) were also mentioned. My personal take here is that I’m more excited about the players mentioned — all guys who should be in the 1-1 mix, but aren’t for whatever reason — than the strategy behind it. My hunch is that take is likely the opposite view of many Phillies fans, an endearingly anxious bunch when it comes to the draft. I’d generally like the money saving strategy (the more lottery tickets the better), but for such a plan to work you need overslot guys to pay later. That’s almost impossible to predict in real time. It’s a great approach in theory, but far too risky a strategy in practice. I don’t think the first overall pick in a year like this is the time to play games. Get the best guy and go from there.

I think in thirty days in beautiful Secaucus, the Phillies are most likely to take Blake Rutherford with the first overall pick than any other player. I think I’d put his odds at 30%, Moniak’s at 20%, Puk’s at 15%, Groome’s at 10%, and the field at 25%. I think I’m not at all confident about those predictions, but they’re the best I’ve got.

2016 MLB Draft College Prospect Master List

Every D1 conference in the country has now officially been featured on the site. Feels good. Click on the links below to find the landing page for each conference’s 2016 MLB Draft page. Check the bottom of this page for a quick and dirty (unranked) 2016 MLB Draft College Top 150…

America East
American Athletic
Atlantic 10
ACC
Atlantic Sun
Big 10
Big 12
Big East
Big South
Big West
Colonial
Conference USA
Horizon
Independents
Ivy
Metro Atlantic
MAC
Mid-Eastern
Missouri Valley
Mountain West
Northeast
Ohio Valley
Pac-12
Patriot
SEC
Southern
Southland and (Part 2)
Southwestern
Summit
Sun Belt
West Coast
Western Athletic

*****

And now to slip some actual original content in…

Quite honestly, this really couldn’t have worked out better. What started as a project to pass time when I was away from my computer turned into a great big list of college prospects that have stood out to me, for one reason or another, as being the best of the best at their respective positions. I wasn’t sure what to do with the list, if anything, but I thought it might be fun to make it public and see if anybody notices any glaring omissions (quite possible) or wildly overrated prospects (less likely, but I’m a little biased).

So as the list started taking shape — on pen and paper, mind you — I began to get curious as to how many players I’d eventually finish with. Took the list to Word, sorted them alphabetically by first name (i.e., these are not yet rankings, though I’d hope the lack of numbers beside each name would tip you off), and then started adding them up. Wouldn’t you know we hit 150 right on the nose? What a fun accident. Glad I cut Hayden Stone at the last minute! I figured I’d then take that number and see how far in the draft it would take us. In last year’s draft, the 150th college (all levels) player (Hutton Moyer for those curious) was drafted with the thirtieth and final pick of the seventh round. So as a rough guideline, one could expect the players listed below to be available until around the end of the seventh round. Now I’m almost always light on junior college and non-D1 prospects, plus I’m sure I’ve rated some guys higher than the industry while underrated others. After correcting for all that, I think it’s fair to say that, at minimum, we can consider all of the players below top ten round talents. We being me. You’re free to think I’m a dope.

In a more perfect world, I would combine the middle infielders, cut two outfielders, and add 13 pitchers. That would give me groups of 20 (C), 5 (1B), 20 (MIF), 10 (3B), 30 (OF), and 75 (P). I suppose I’m not quite detail-oriented enough to care to go that far; the occasional imperfectly numbered group doesn’t bother me in the least.

My weighted process for this included the following: publicly available scouting reports and 2016 season performance (heavy on this), privately shared scouting reports and the overall statistical body of work (moderately weighted), and my own two eyes when applicable (used mostly as a tie-breaker for guys I was on the fence about).

It’s worth pointing out that (as always) some of the catchers may not be catchers and some of the shortstops may not be shortstops. I kept that in mind, so consider the rankings of those guys an endorsement of being worthy for the list even if they had to switch positions (1B/OF for the catchers, 2B/3B for the shortstops). If they had to go on those lists, they still would have been included…I consider the small chance some of them have at staying at their college positions a perk more than an indictment.

It’s a very good year for fans of pitchers named Kyle and whatever iteration of Zack/Zach/Zac you’re into. The catching class is loaded. Many pitchers have disappointed, but it’s still a really good year for arms. The rest of the position groups can probably charitably be called average at best. I still think it’s an above-average draft class on balance, but it’s more about solid depth than obvious top of the first round talents. Great year to have multiple extra shots.

I’m happy to keep chatting about college prospects in the comments or via email, but consider this the last post solely about college guys you’ll see here over the next two weeks. It’s time to immerse myself in the prep game for a while once again. I’ll be kicking that reintroduction off in style with what might be my final look at Nolan Jones — he’s really, really great, FWIW — tomorrow morning. By the time we’re back to college, the regular season will be wrapped up and final rankings will begin.

So tell me who I missed and I’ll let you know why I callously left them off. Or, more likely, I’ll thank you for pointing out a transcription mistake.

Catcher (20)

Andrew Knizner
Austin Athmann
Brett Cumberland
Chris DeVito
Chris Okey
Dempsey Grover
Gavin Stupienski
Handsome Monica
Harrison Wenson
Jake Rogers
Jameson Fisher
Jarrett Rindfleisch
Jeremy Martinez
Keith Skinner
Logan Ice
Matt Thaiss
Sean Murphy
Tyler Lancaster
Tyler Lawrence
Zack Collins

First Base (5)

Carmen Beneditti
Keaton Wright
Pete Alonso
Preston Palmeiro
Will Craig

Second Base (6)

Cavan Biggio
Jake Noll
JaVon Shelby
Nate Mondou
Nick Solak
Tommy Edman

Third Base (10)

Blake Tiberi
Bobby Dalbec
Carson Shaddy
Clayton Taylor
Danny Hudzina
Logan Gray
Lucas Erceg
Nick Senzel
Sheldon Neuse
Spencer Gaa

Shortstop (14)

Bryson Brigman
CJ Chatham
Colby Woodmansee
Daniel Pinero
Errol Robinson
Garrett Hampson
Kevin Santa
Nicky Lopez
Riley Delgado
Ryan Howard
Stephen Alemais
Tate Blackman
Trever Morrison
Zack Short

Outfield (32)

Alex Call
Anfernee Grier
Austin Hays
Bradley Jones
Bryan Reynolds
Buddy Reed
Cole Gruber
Corey Ray
Dan Holst
David Martinelli
Dom Thompson-Williams
Granger Studdard
Heath Quinn
Hunter Tackett
Jacob Heyward
Jacob Robson
Jake Fraley
JB Woodman
Josh Palacios
Kel Johnson
Kyle Lewis
Luke Bonfield
Matt Albanese
Nick Banks
Ronnie Dawson
Ryan Boldt
Shane Billings
Stephen Wrenn
Trenton Brooks
Troy Montgomery
Tyler Ramirez
Willie Abreu

Pitcher (63)

AJ Puckett
AJ Puk
Alec Hansen
Andrew Lantrip
Anthony Kay
Bailey Clark
Bailey Ober
Ben Bowden
Braden Webb
Brandon Bailey
Brett Adcock
Brett Morales
Cal Quantrill
Cameron Vieaux
Cody Sedlock
Cole Irvin
Connor Jones
Corbin Burnes
Dakota Hudson
Dane Dunning
Daniel Brown
Daulton Jefferies
Devin Smeltzer
Eric Lauer
Garrett Williams
Griffin Jax
Ian Hamilton
Jacob DeVries
Jake Elliott
Jake Kelzer
Jason Foley
JD Busfield
John Kilichowski
Jon Duplantier
Jordan Sheffield
Justin Dunn
Keegan Akin
Keegan Thompson
Kyle Cody
Kyle Funkhouser
Kyle Serrano
Kyle Weatherly
Lake Bachar
Logan Shore
Matt Anderson
Matt Crohan
Matt Krook
Michael Rucker
Mike Shawaryn
Mitchell Jordan
Mitchell Traver
Robert Tyler
Ryan Hendrix
Shane Bieber
Shaun Anderson
TJ Zeuch
Tyson Miller
Wil Crowe
Zac Gallen
Zach Jackson
Zach Plesac
Zack Brown
Zack Burdi

2016 MLB Draft – SEC

If you’re one of the small handful of daily readers, you can go ahead and skip this post. You’ve already seen it. Not that you needed my permission or anything, but you’re free to pass all the same. The intent here is to get all of the college content in one place, so below you’ll find everything I’ve written about the 2016 class of MLB Draft prospects currently playing in the SEC. Then I’ll have a college baseball master list post that will centralize everything I’ve written about the 2016 MLB Draft college class all in one place. It’s a rare bit of inspired organizational posting around here, so I’m trying to strike while motivated… 

Hitter Follow List
Hitters 2.0
Outfielders
Pitcher Follow List
Friday Night Arms 
AJ Puk

2016 MLB Draft – ACC

If you’re one of the small handful of daily readers, you can go ahead and skip this post. You’ve already seen it. Not that you needed my permission or anything, but you’re free to pass all the same. The intent here is to get all of the college content in one place, so below you’ll find everything I’ve written about the 2016 class of MLB Draft prospects currently playing in the ACC. Then I’ll have a college baseball master list post that will centralize everything I’ve written about the 2016 MLB Draft college class all in one place. It’s a rare bit of inspired organizational posting around here, so I’m trying to strike while motivated…

ACC Overview Part 1
ACC Overview Part 2
Boston College

Clemson
Duke
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Miami
North Carolina State
Notre Dame
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest

2016 MLB Draft – American Athletic Conference

If you’re one of the small handful of daily readers, you can go ahead and skip this post. You’ve already seen it. Not that you needed my permission or anything, but you’re free to pass all the same. The intent here is to get all of the college content in one place, so below you’ll find everything I’ve written about the 2016 class of MLB Draft prospects currently playing in the AAC. Then I’ll have a college baseball master list post that will centralize everything I’ve written about the 2016 MLB Draft college class all in one place. It’s a rare bit of inspired organizational posting around here, so I’m trying to strike while motivated… 

American Athletic Conference Overview
Central Florida
Cincinnati
East Carolina
Houston
Memphis
South Florida
Tulane

2016 MLB Draft Prospects – New York Tech

I always start the year trying to do team-by-team draft profiles before quickly realizing that such a task is impossible and shifting instead to conference-by-conference coverage. Now that I’ve finally finished hitting every conference, it’s time for one last special team profile. New York Tech, college ball’s last remaining D1 independent, gets their long-awaited day in the sun.

JR RHP Elias Martinez (2016)
SR RHP Anthony Merchan (2016)
JR RHP Matt Diaz (2016)
SR OF Joe Daru (2016)
JR C/1B Anthony Caradonna (2016)
JR 3B/1B Louis Mele (2016)
SO RHP Chris Johnson (2017)

Joe Daru has always swiped bags effectively (110/124 SB in his career so far, good for a 88.7% success rate), but his power spike this year has been a pleasant surprise. He’s hit three times as many homers (6) so far in 2016 than in his three seasons coming into this one. He’s also already doubled up his extra base hits from last year while basically tripling his previous lifetime college ISO. His approach has steadily improved each season, though it’s still not quite where you’d want it to be all other factors considered. I might use a pick from round 35 on to see if his big final season is the start of something real or just a senior year mirage. If nothing else, you’ve got an athletic speed guy who can play center field for a short-season team while you figure the rest of his game out. Louis Mele is also rather interesting as a proven power producer who this year has shown drastic improvement with his plate discipline. I’m not sure how solid his glove is at third, but if he can hold his own there, then he might also have a shot to get drafted late. It’s more likely he’ll have to return for a senior season to see if he can keep building to his game; if he can find a next gear, like Daru did in his last year, then he’ll be a senior-sign lock in 2017.

On the mound, both Elias Martinez and Matt Diaz hold some appeal as bat missing righthanders with solid size and decent results to date. Martinez’s ERA (6.36) doesn’t fully reflect his effectiveness (7.33 K/9 and 2.70 BB/9) so far in 2016. Diaz has the edge on him in both run prevention (3.86 ERA) and strikeouts (9.21 K/9), but has been a good bit wilder (4.93 BB/9). I can’t speak to either guy’s stuff at this time, but that should hopefully change between now and June. Daru, Mele, Martinez, Diaz, and the rest of the New York Tech Bears visit Villanova for a three-game set in beautiful downtown Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania next weekend. The plan is to see them Friday, Nolan Jones again on Saturday (with possibly enough time to double-dip and get back for game two of the series in time), and then hang out with dear old Mom on Sunday. I’m excited.