Morehead State rSR C Chris Robinson
Jacksonville State JR 1B Paschal Petrongolo
Belmont JR 2B Tyler Fullerton
Tennessee Tech SR SS Dylan Bosheers
Belmont SR 3B Matt Beaty
Eastern Kentucky JR OF Kyle Nowlin
Tennessee Tech JR OF Jake Rowland
Morehead State SR OF Brandon Rawe

Austin Peay State JR RHP Jared Carkuff
Morehead State rJR RHP Aaron Goe
Morehead State JR RHP Tyler Keele
Morehead State rJR RHP Craig Pearcy
Southeast Missouri State JR LHP Alex Winkelman

If Belmont SR 3B/C Matt Beaty doesn’t end up as one of this draft class’ favorites for teams that rely heavily on analytics, then I give up. Beaty has walked more than he has struck out in all three full seasons so far with last year’s line of .352/.478/.536 with 28 BB and 14 K the cherry on top of a wholly impressive statistical run. That’s what I would have written if I didn’t happen to look at what he’s done so far this season. If last year was a cherry this year is another mound of whipped cream on top of that: .415/.495/.805 with 12 BB and 1 K in 82 AB. The sample size is obviously small and the level of competition isn’t exactly the kind to scare a good hitter straight – in fact, (small) he (sample) went (size) just 1-7 combined with a 2B and 2 BB against Notre Dame and Tennessee, though he fared better against solid teams like Bradley and Evansville so who knows – but production like Beaty’s really should get him a tiny bit of fanfare by now. The fact that he’s done this before – not to this extent, but still – makes me think there’s some validity behind his (small sample size) video game numbers. Even without seeing him and knowing next to nothing about his defensive outlook, his is a bat I would stick my neck out for if my team was searching for a senior sign hitter in the eighth, ninth, or tenth rounds that they could give a significant underslot deal.

One of the interesting things I’ve learned over the last decade of drifting in and out of baseball is how varied draft preparation is from team to team. Obviously you’d expect to see a wide variety of attention to detail among individual area and associate scouts – even with team-issued standardized report templates there’s always wiggle room to go off script if you have strong feelings about a player – but it surprised me to hear about how different rooms actually go about discussing players while the draft is going on. I know plenty of teams go in as prepared as you’d hope with everything lined up and ready to go; picking players for them is almost a formality, as they’ve already “picked” who they want and it just becomes a matter of checking for availability and moving on to the next name once one of their guys is taken. Almost all the debating and discussion in those instances have taken place well before the actual draft, so picking players is relatively stress-free outside of hoping certain favorites fall. I’ve also heard a few stories of teams, and obviously we’re talking quite late in the draft, picking players off of one look from an area guy, or, in some cases, sight unseen. In the latter example, the players were selected due to hitting certain statistical benchmarks, or, believe it or don’t, a quick check of the rankings or scouting blurbs at some of the industry leading prospect publications (though I think it’s fair to say the quality has dipped of late, Baseball America remains the go-to for draft coverage within the game – I think Perfect Game’s draft work has lapped them and is the true industry standard right now, but old habits die hard). All this is to say that I think Beaty could wind up as one of those players who gets picked on the strength of his ridiculous college production rather than years of up close and personal scouting trips. That’s not to say that he’s a mystery to pro teams right now – there are too many scouts on the road at any given time for anybody to remain a mystery for long – but rather that he could position himself to get drafted even if an area guy submits a lukewarm (or worse) scouting report on him.

Finally, since I should wrap this Matt Beaty opus up some time before June, a quick word on his defense. It has taken a few years, but I’m just now willing to move off my stubborn insistence of sticking with Beaty as a pro catching prospect. He’s been the starter at third for Belmont for a long time now, so it’s time to acknowledge, despite having a few pro guys tell me they’d only consider drafting him to give him a shot as a catcher, that it’s at least as likely that he’s a pro third baseman than he’s a catcher in the future. I don’t know. I wish I knew more, but I don’t. I haven’t seen him and I haven’t heard from anybody in the last eighteen months or so who had a strong enough take on his defense to move me in either direction. His bat as a catcher is really intriguing. His bat as a third baseman – depending on how well he can pick it there – is still really intriguing, albeit slightly less so. His bat as a first baseman is still worth taking a shot on in the round range for the dollar value that I described earlier. In other words, any good news I hear about his defense between now and June will be considered a pleasant surprise. The bat is what will make or break him, and I’m willing to ride it out to see how he adjusts as a hitter to pro ball no matter what the glove does.

Both Jacksonville State JR 1B Paschal Petrongolo and Morehead State SR 1B Kane Sweeney have power, work deep counts, walk a bunch, and strike out. All that also applies to Southeast Missouri State JR 1B/OF Ryan Rippee, a high upside transfer off to a good start with plus raw power and size (6-6, 230) to dream on. Jacksonville State JR 1B Tyler Gamble, Eastern Kentucky JR 1B/3B Mandy Alvarez, and Southern Illinois Edwardsville SR Alec Saikal (listed at 6-7, 240) have a little less present power than the rest of the first base class, but provide more patience as hitters. I’m about as bullish on this collective group as I can be, so take the following prediction with a grain of salt: at least three first basemen from the OVC get drafted this June. The prediction is a tad less bold when you realize the Ohio Valley has seen a highly impressive dozen players selected in each of the past three MLB Drafts, but still.

I made the choice to headline this piece with Matt Beaty, but I could just have easily opted to kick it off with a couple hundred words on the bizarrely underrated Tennessee Tech SR SS/2B Dylan Bosheers, who is ranked one spot ahead of the big bat of Beaty due to his almost equal bat but clearly more impressive defensive upside. Quite simply, Bosheers was a baffling omission from last year’s draft. He’s done everything asked from him as a college player and then some (.368/.444/.577 with 27 BB/32 K in 234 AB last year), and he has at least two clear average or better professional tools (defense, speed). He’s not just a slap and dash bat, either; he’s got an approach geared towards driving the ball and he’s capable of using the whole field as well as almost any middle infielder in the country. A future pro shortstop with average speed (plays up thanks to his smarts on the bases) and meaningful pop that walks as much as he strikes out has a place in the draft’s top fifteen rounds. I could see him deservedly getting picked in the same range I predicted for Beaty (8th/9th/10th) as a money-saving option senior sign for a smart club that emphasizes college production. Depending on how things shake out the rest of the way, he might wind up even higher than that on my personal board. I like players with the upside of being quality big league infielders, what can I say? I’m not great at analogies, but I think something like [Alex Bregman : Blake Trahan as Blake Trahan : Dylan Bosheers] works.

Morehead State rSR C/OF Chris Robinson is far more athletic than your ordinary catcher with above-average or better speed and defensive tools interesting enough that you can envision him becoming pretty good behind the plate if his drafting team is patient with him. I’m a fan.

Morehead State rJR RHP Aaron Goe is an imposing 6-5, 220 pound strike-throwing machine with enough fastball (88-92) and an above-average breaking ball. When sifting through late round draft candidates from smaller conferences extremes tend to jump out, so Goe’s easy plus control could give him a shot to go higher than expected on draft day. Small samples both years, but his current 0.70 BB/9 is actually up from his 0.69 BB/9 mark from last year. He falls just behind Austin Peay State JR RHP Jared Carkuff in the conference for me based largely on Carkuff’s promising blend of present stuff (90-94 FB, above-average low- to mid-80s SL) and projection (long, lean 6-4, 170 pound frame).

2015 MLB Draft Talent – Hitting 

1. Tennessee Tech SR SS/2B Dylan Bosheers
2. Belmont SR 3B/C Matt Beaty
3. Eastern Illinois SR 3B Brant Valach
4. Jacksonville State JR 1B Paschal Petrongolo
5. Morehead State SR 1B Kane Sweeney
6. Southeast Missouri State JR 1B/OF Ryan Rippee
7. Morehead State rSR C/OF Chris Robinson
8. Eastern Kentucky JR OF Kyle Nowlin
9. Tennessee Tech JR OF Jake Rowland
10. Morehead State SR OF Brandon Rawe
11. Eastern Illinois rJR OF/1B Demetre Taylor
12. Eastern Illinois SR OF Caleb Howell
13. Belmont SR OF Drew Ferguson
14. Jacksonville State JR 1B Tyler Gamble
15. Eastern Kentucky JR 1B/3B Mandy Alvarez
16. Belmont JR 2B/OF Tyler Fullerton
17. Murray State SR 2B/OF Anthony Bayus
18. Southeast Missouri State SR C Cole Ferguson
19. Tennessee-Martin SR OF/RHP Taylor Douglas
20. Eastern Illinois JR 2B Mitch Gasbarro
21. Morehead State SR SS Robby Spencer
22. Southern Illinois Edwardsville SR OF Denton Reed
23. Southeast Missouri State JR C Scott Mitchell
24. Southeast Missouri State JR SS Andy Lack
25. Eastern Kentucky JR 2B/3B Doug Teegarden
26. Southern Illinois Edwardsville SR OF Nick Lombardo
27. Morehead State SR OF Nick Newell
28. Southern Illinois Edwardsville SR 1B Alec Saikal
29. Belmont SR C/1B Alec Diamond
30. Southeast Missouri State rSR OF Jason Blum
31. Tennessee Tech SR C Jordan Hopkins

2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching

1. Austin Peay State JR RHP Jared Carkuff
2. Morehead State rJR RHP Aaron Goe
3. Morehead State JR RHP Tyler Keele
4. Morehead State rJR RHP Craig Pearcy
5. Southeast Missouri State JR LHP Alex Winkelman
6. Murray State JR RHP Andrew Bramley
7. Jacksonville State SR RHP Zachary Fowler
8. Southeast Missouri State SR RHP Ryan Lenaburg
9. Southern Illinois Edwardsville JR RHP Jarrett Bednar
10. Tennessee Tech JR RHP Trevor Maloney
11. Belmont JR RHP Aaron Quillen
12. Southeast Missouri State SR RHP Travis Hayes
13. Belmont SR LHP Dan Ludwig
14. Southern Illinois Edwardsville SR RHP Ryan Daniels
15. Murray State SR LHP/OF Brock Downey
16. Tennessee-Martin SR LHP Carter Smith
17. Eastern Kentucky SR RHP Ben Gullo
18. Morehead State JR RHP Matt Anderson
19. Eastern Kentucky SR RHP Cody Creamer