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2013 MLB Draft Preview: Virginia Cavaliers

Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)

  1. JR LHP Kyle Crockett
  2. JR RHP Artie Lewicki
  3. rSR LHP Scott Silverstein
  4. JR OF Mitchell Shifflett
  5. SR OF Reid Gragnani
  6. rJR RHP Whit Mayberry

This year’s Virginia team offers up an unusually sparse amount of prospects worth getting excited about. It isn’t, however, something to be concerned about if you’re a fan of the team. This is mostly true because of the really strong group of 2014s and 2015s coming up behind the lackluster 2013s, but also because one of the reasons 2013 doesn’t look as promising as it could is because of the one thing you really can’t predict: injuries. That’s a long way of pointing out the obvious: this group would look a lot better if Artie Lewicki was healthy. Lewicki, who will miss the 2013 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, could have challenged for a spot in the draft’s first three rounds if healthy. As it is, a team may yet gamble on his power arm (easy low-90s heat that peaks at 96, nasty low-80s slider) returning to form in his potential first full year of pro ball in 2014. His injury opens the door for Kyle Crockett to emerge as Virginia’s best 2013 draft prospect. Crockett reminds me a little bit of a slightly lesser version of North Carolina’s Kent Emanuel. He’s produced at a ridiculously high level since day one (9.56 K/9 in 2011, 9.00 K/9 and only 1.65 BB/9 in 60 innings last year) and has enough looseness in his arm to project some velocity gain (he’s currently upper-80s mostly) going forward. My notes on Crockett include the phrase “murder on lefties,” so, even if you don’t love him as a starter professionally, it sounds like he has a strong future in relief.

I refuse to give up on Scott Silverstein and you shouldn’t either. The redshirt senior has worked his tail off to get back to the low-90s after undergoing multiple operations to repair a torn left labrum. Add in a solid slider and an always strong changeup, and you’ve got a pretty good looking young pitcher. His medical history and advanced age may knock him back a few rounds past where his talent deserves. Even still, a smart team would be wise to stick with him this spring to see if his arm continues to bounce back. Fellow surgical patient Whit Mayberry (torn UCL in 2012) hopes to make his return to the diamond in similar triumphant fashion. Mayberry’s stuff wasn’t huge pre-injury, but he’s shown enough (some low-90s) with a strong track record (right around 9.00 K/9 over his 60 innings the past two years) to at least warrant some pre-season discussion.

Shifflett figures to be drafted on the basis on one tool: plus-plus speed. You can be limited in all other areas of the game, but you’ve got as good a shot as anybody on draft day if you have a legitimate 80 tool to call your own. I don’t think Shifflett will ever hit enough to put his speed to much use professionally, but between his legs, range, and (fingers crossed) improved patience at the plate, he could have some value as a backup outfielder somewhere, someday. He’s a fun college player to watch, in any event. Gragnani is a long-time favorite who simply hasn’t put it all together for an extended stretch at the college level. He needs at bats, so hopefully he can stay healthy and play at the high level that many – like me – think he can perform.

The duo of JR RHP Austin Young and rJR OF Colin Harrington make up another pair of names worth keeping an eye on. Young is a big guy with good numbers (8.64 K/9 in 33.1 IP) and Harrington has performed well (two years of .400+ OBP) in limited at bats.

2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know

  1. SO OF Derek Fisher
  2. SO RHP/3B Nick Howard
  3. SO OF/1B Mike Papi
  4. SO C Nate Irving
  5. SO C Brandon Downes

A big season out of Derek Fisher will get him in the conversation for a very early (top five? top ten?) pick in 2014. He’s good enough in multiple areas – average-ish defender in a corner, average-ish speed, average-ish arm – that his big time power looks even better. He’s not a hulking slugger nor is he a gifted natural hitter who happens to hit for power; he’s just a well-rounded player with the chance to be an above-average player in an outfield corner.

SO OF/1B Mike Papi and SO RHP/3B Nick Howard aren’t on the same level as Fisher as prospects, but they aren’t all that far behind. If Papi continues to prove himself athletic enough to handle an outfield corner, his stock will continue to rise. Howard’s future is still largely to be determined as many talent evaluators remain split on whether or not he’ll wind up as a hitter or a pitcher. Virginia is lucky to have a pair of talented catchers coming off admirable first year performances in SO C Brandon Downes and SO C Nate Irving. I think Irving may be the better defender while Downes has more upside at the plate.

I also like SO 2B Branden Cogswell, a middle infielder with an intriguing offensive profile and frame that suggests pop to come. SO INF/C Kenny Towns and SO RHP Barrett O’Neill round out a very strong group of Virginia sophomores.

Image via Insider’s Passport 



  1. Artie says:

    Fisher is supposed to have average-ish speed and arm? He was 94 from the outfiled, and posted a 4.46 / 60 time (quickest 60 time of the day) at scout day.

    • Rob Ozga says:

      Both very interesting numbers, thanks. I think you’re take is closer to the current truth than I expressed in the original post. I had “good arm” in my notes, so I think “average-ish” was more of a bad communication thing (on my end) than bad original information. Also worth pointing out that there’s more to a quality outfield arm than just raw arm strength – I’ve heard he can get a little erratic in terms of accuracy, but look forward to seeing him in action for myself on a few extended looks this spring.

      I’m a little confused about the 60 time. Unless the 4.46 is some kind of converted score I’m not hip to (like a translated 40-yard dash time or something, which would actually be pretty cool…and the math would work out almost perfectly), then I’m pretty sure something there isn’t right. He did run a 6.65 60 in HS, so I definitely think I shortchanged him with the “average-ish” tag again. He’s a bigger guy, so I could see him losing speed over the years, but that’s far from a slam dunk from happening. Part of me still has the old popular Jay Bruce comp (from a body type/athleticism perspective) in mind: I could see Fisher following that path in the pros (averaging 7 SB/year). Stolen base totals aren’t a direct link to raw speed, though. I’m just talking in circles now, so I’ll stop…but not before thanking you again for the updated information.

      • Artie says:

        My bad, its a 6.46

      • Rob Ozga says:

        Cool, thanks for clarifying. Interesting that he’s gained speed since high school. I’d say that speaks to the outstanding strength and conditioning program they’ve got going on at Virginia, as well as their top notch coaching staff.

  2. Artie says:

    I think they ran the 60 on their turf field, I think thats why he lost time.

  3. […] Top Draft Prospect: Kyle Crockett – LHP […]

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