30. Bowling Green SR 3B Derek Spencer
Spencer won’t wow you with his tools or outstanding collegiate production, but his skills are good enough when taken in altogether to get himself on a professional roster. He’s the classic well-rounded, hard working, good enough senior sign who doesn’t do any one thing exceptionally well, but does everything so wonderfully competently that he profiles as an organizational player with backup upside. Three of his tools have average upside or better (power, speed, glove), so it’s no stretch to see him sneak him onto a big league bench someday.
29. Florida JR 3B Bryson Smith
Smith has a big league body, intriguing pop, useful positional versatility, but has been held back by injuries in 2010. Injury induced subpar seasons for mid- to late-round underclassman prospects are normally a recipe for a senior season return engagement, but Smith may be a victim of his own college team’s success. Playing time in 2011 looks to be very hard to come by on a young, stacked Florida starting nine, so Smith may try his luck professionally if a team is willing to bet that a return to health will bring him closer to the player he was at junior college than he was as a Gator.
28. UC Irvine JR Brian Hernandez
Hernandez has a similar scouting profile as Derek Spencer, but gets the edge because of better plate discipline and more balanced swing mechanics. Like Spencer, he’s your typical “whole is greater than the sum of his parts” kind of prospect, with the upside of a big league bench bat if everything breaks right.
27. Chipola FR 3B Michael Revell
Revell has really impressive tools across the board, but his production in 2010 didn’t reflect his true talent level. His plus bat speed, strong arm, good athleticism, and 20 homer lefthanded power upside will keep him on many follow lists despite his struggles. The down year will probably keep him at Chipola for a sophomore season; disappointing, sure, but perhaps a good thing for his long-term draft stock. Revell has the tools to succeed, but is raw enough that the extra relatively low pressure junior college at bats could help turn his substantial promise into production. It’s rare to see a player capable of starting in the big leagues so low on a prospect list like this, but it’s an acknowledgement of the wide gap between what Revell could be versus what he currently is. He makes the list as more of a token 2011 name to watch than a realistic 2010 draft target.
26. Holy Cross SR 3B Matt Perry
Is it sad that one of the first things I thought about when looking at my notes on Perry was “gee, I bet Bill Simmons would get a kick out of having a fellow Holy Cross guy show up on some anonymous internet nobody’s top 30 college third base prospect list…”? Perry is one of my favorite 2010 senior signs because of his advanced strike zone knowledge, good defensive tools, and renowned drive to succeed. It’s a rare college senior who plays in the big leagues, so sometimes it’s alright to dig deep to find a small something extra about a player that you think sets him apart. Perry’s steady four year progression, strong performance under pressure as a legacy at Holy Cross, and success with wood in the summer makes me think he’s a guy worth gambling on.
25. Eastern Kentucky JR 3B Jayson Langfels
Langfels came into the season with a reputation as a total hacker at the plate, but curbed his swinging and missing ways just enough to finally unlock his good raw power in game situations. I’ve gotten mixed reports on his defense this year, but his hands in the past have gotten him into some trouble at third. It ranges anywhere from somewhat possible to very likely that he’ll wind up as more of a power hitting four-corners utility type than a starting third base candidate; either way, there’s value enough in the bat.
24. Toledo JR 3B Jared Hoying
Hoying’s an interesting scouting, coaching, and prospect development test case. His swing is ugly, but his bat speed is exceptional. Knowing that, do you a) let Hoying be Hoying and go with what works, b) attempt to make slight alterations while preserving the integrity of the swing, or c) work to maintain Hoying’s great bat speed while simultaneously trying to reinvent his swing mechanics? More to the point, how exactly do you go about coaching the kid up? What coaches in the organization do you assign to help him? How much time and energy should be spent working with a mid-round draft prospect? Hoying’s swing isn’t the only intriguing, but raw part of his game. He’s an obviously raw defender, but the tools, most notably a plus arm and athleticism equally suited up the middle, are there for him to succeed anywhere in the infield in a pinch. His high strikeout rate is absolutely a concern, but the aforementioned bat speed, plus arm, and above-average base running give him the look of a potential above-average utility infielder in the mold of former Ranger, Indian, Cub, Brave, Brewer, Rockie, Cub again, Pirate, Dodger, Indian again, Pirate again, and Phillie Jose Hernandez.
23. Oklahoma SO 3B Garrett Buechele
And so begins a stretch of players with starting caliber upside, but high bust potential. Buechele has one of the stronger pure hit tools of this college third base class, and his quickly emerging power make him one to watch. His defense is plenty good enough to stick at third, so the only thing that realistically stands in the way of Buechele succeeding professionally (you know, besides all of the other things that can get in the way for any player drafted) will be high strikeout totals. He’s not as talented as Zack cox, so don’t take this as a direct comparison, but it seems that Buechele would be best served returning to school to work on honing his pitch recognition skills like the top player on this list managed to do in his sophomore season.
22. San Francisco JR 3B Stephen Yarrow
Yarrow’s basic story is very similar to Garrett Buechele’s in that both prospects have legit plus power potential and a strong overall hit tool. Going against Yarrow is his tendency to pull darn near everything, below-average tools outside of the batter’s box, and a long-term future as a four-corners type of player, not an everyday third baseman.
21. Furman JR 3B Brian Harrison
Harrison is a good, good player. Case in point, Harrison has a good arm, is a good defender, and has a good hit tool, with good power potential. He’s a really good athlete, perhaps too good to be “wasted” at third if there’s really a team out there willing to try him in centerfield as rumored. I wish he would have gotten more at bats on the Cape this past summer, but, as too often the case with Harrison, injuries limited his playing time. Get him healthy, get him a regular defensive home, and get a good, good player with starter upside past round ten. Good bargain. The relatively low ranking is more about the players ahead of him than the above-average (or, in other words, “good”) overall talent package that Harrison brings to the table.