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Final 2011 MLB Draft High School First Base Rankings
Photo Credit: Power Showcase
1. 1B Travis Harrison (Tustin HS, California)
I feel almost the same affinity for Harrison as I did for Nick Castellanos last year. Almost. Castellanos was and is the superior prospect for a handful of reasons, but it is pretty amazing to see the difference in pre-draft ranking between the two relatively similar prospects. Castellanos was my third favorite hitter from the 2010 class, and ranked sixth overall on my last big board before the draft. Harrison, despite the similarities to Castellanos from a scouting perspective, won’t begin to approach such a lofty ranking. That’s not a knock against Harrison’s upside, but rather yet another data point indicating the ridiculous depth of this year’s draft.
Writing about first base prospects is tough because, really, it is all about asking one simple question for each prospect: can he hit enough to play first base in the big leagues? There are occasional issues that need to be sorted out (body type, athleticism, chance of playing somewhere other than first, maybe some consideration for defense at first), but the bat is clearly the most important issue that needs to be addressed. Harrison’s bat looks like it’ll play at first. There are a handful of prospects ranked below that have a case of having more present power than Harrison (most notably Dan Vogelbach), but, for my money, Harrison’s power is the most pro-ready in his class. Harrison has the raw physical strength to hit the ball a long way, a free and easy swing that incorporates his lower half beautifully, and an approach at the plate that enables him to confidently hack away at pitches he likes while letting junk fly right by. If Harrison has convinced a team that he is more than just a first baseman defensively – I’d love to see him get a shot at third, but don’t think his drafting team will agree with me – he’d find himself in a much better position to go off the board in the first. The more likely outcome has him sliding a bit on draft day, and, much like Castellanos in 2010, Harrison could be a major steal if he slips past round one.
2. 1B Jacob Anderson (Chino HS, California)
Anderson has the weird distinction of being a middle of the pack high school outfield prospect – not sure where I’d rank him offhand, but certainly not in the top five – with a prospect stock that is superficially inflated by his ability to play first base. Would you rather be the eighth or ninth ranked prep outfielder or the number two first baseman? It doesn’t actually make a difference, but I know I’d walk around with a little extra in my step if I was ranked second in something rather than ninth, even if I knew my competition wasn’t as great in the former category. There is a point buried deep within my largely incoherent rambling here, I promise. Anderson is the rare player on this list who is more than capable of playing another position. So why include him with the first basemen? It becomes a question of personal preference: would you rather have an average to slightly below average left field defender or a potential plus glove at first? I’m not sure there is a right answer – though I’m sure the boys at Fangraphs or College Splits could probably figure it out in no time – so it really does come down to personal choice. Because I think Anderson’s bat is so good – plus bat speed, explosive yet efficient hip rotation, great weight transfer and balance, and a slight upper cut that really works with his whole body swing – that he’ll have enough bat to carry him at first.
3. 1B Dan Vogelbach (Bishop Verot HS, Florida)
The popular comparison for Dan Vogelbach these days seems to be Prince Fielder. Now I’m as big a fan as comps as you’ll find and I think I get the basic idea behind this particular one – both guys showed plus to plus-plus power and minus to minus-minus (I just made that up…clever, right?) body types as prep stars – but the only way I could get behind comparing Vogelbach to Fielder would be if we specified that it is a “very poor man’s Fielder” comp. Maybe my hesitation to use Fielder as a comp for anybody has to do with using him as a point of reference for what I thought Bryce Harper can and will do as a pro. As a jumping off point for conversation, however, the Fielder comp is very interesting. Vogelbach does have tremendous raw power. He also has a distressingly large body that does not fit what most teams look for in a high school draft pick. Some (but not all) concerns about his body have been put to rest by a combination of his major weight loss in the past year (he’s no longer pushing three bills, so that’s a plus) and his outstanding makeup that has some teams believing he’ll do anything it takes (i.e. continue to work on reshaping his body) to succeed in pro ball. It is easy to envision Vogelbach as a 1B/DH capable of hitting 30 homers if everything goes to plan, but the risk factor here is high.
4. 1B Dante Bichette (Orangewood Christian HS, Florida)
I’ve gone back and forth on Bichette for over a year now. The first thing I noticed when watching him hit is how his inside-out swing looks a lot like his father’s. This is a positive when he’s going well, as it is a really good looking swing that helps him generate plus bat speed and well above-average raw power. It is a negative when he is going poorly because, as much as I like the swing for an experience professional, it may have a little too much length and too many moving parts to allow him to pull it off consistently. I can’t help but wonder what his first pro hitting instructor’s advice will be. I should also note that I’ve slowly come around to the idea that Bichette might be able to stick at third base professionally because of his much improved athleticism and surprising nimbleness.
5. 1B Kevin Cron (Mountain Pointe HS, Arizona)
Cron has made headlines this spring, first as the younger brother of the amazing CJ Cron and then as a pretty damn good draft power hitting draft prospect himself. He’ll likely be picked too high to honor his commitment to TCU, but, man, I’d love to see him take a crack at the college game – the direct statistical comparison you could then make to his brother would be fascinating, I think. Cron the younger caught some in high school, but, like his bro, probably doesn’t have the requisite athleticism to catch at the next level. I’ve heard some quiet buzz about an attempted move to third, but I think that is probably from people who would hate to see his plus arm go to waste at first. Even working under the likely assumption he’s a first baseman in pro ball, Cron is a top five round prospect due to his highly advanced hit tool and gigantic raw power.
6. 1B Rookie Davis (Dixon HS, North Carolina)
My biggest concern with ranking Rookie Davis this high is based on the nagging thought some team will pop him as a pitcher instead of a hitter. Currently equipped with two above-average future pitches (good low-90s fastball and an emerging mid-70s curve), Davis’ future could be on the mound. Like most two-way prospects, I think he’d be best served by giving hitting a go from the start. If that’s the case, then his plus raw power, classic slugger’s frame (6-5, 220), and strong track record hitting with wood could help him get drafted in the first few rounds and give him a chance to become pro baseball’s first ever Rookie.
7. 1B Wallace Gonzalez (Bishop Amat HS, California)
We’re issuing a major upside alert with Wallace Gonzalez, a rare first base prospect that can lay claim to legit five-tool upside. Those tools run the gamut from “wow” (plus raw power and a bazooka – not literally, that would be a “WOW!” tool – attached to his shoulder) to “hmm, didn’t expect that” (watching a 6-5, 220 pound man with 45 speed is cognitive dissonance personified). With great upside often comes great rawness, however. Gonzalez is better known as a football star with intriguing upside as a tight end capable of developing into a dangerous downfield threat. His commitment to the gridiron makes his signability just murky enough that some teams could shy away on draft day. Years of football experience also means less time honing his baseball skills, so the onus will be on his drafting team to really coach him up. At this point in the rankings, a boom or bust prospect like Gonzalez makes a lot of sense.
8. 1B Ryan Krill (Portage Central HS, Michigan)
Krill is another prospect I was slow to come around on, but I’m buying into his mix of strong defensive tools, super athleticism, and big upside with the bat. Like Jacob Anderson before him, he’s got the wheels and instincts to play some outfield as a pro. There is enough to like about Krill that you can dream on him being a league average hitter and above-average glove at first down the line if everything works out. That may not sound all that sexy, and there is plenty of risk involved with assuming “everything works out,” but you have to remember how much you have to hit if you want to play first base in the bigs. As much as I like Krill now, I’ll be the first to admit that each and every one of these mid-round high school first basemen will all have to make major strides in pro ball (i.e. have “everything work out”) to begin to reach their upper level projections. Life is tough when you don’t have a fallback plan, I guess.
9. 1B Elliot Richoux (The Woodlands HS, Texas)
Richoux is a mature hitter with plus raw power and a swing that will need a heavy dose of good coaching to help him optimize his physical strength. He has the benefit and the disadvantage of being heavily scouted over the years. In Richoux’s case, it isn’t the only area guys who know him, but also many front office higher-ups who have travelled to see The Woodlands HS team play over the past few seasons.
10. 1B Rouric Bridgewater (Diamond Ranch HS, California):
Bridgewater’s ranking is probably a little bit unfair because, as a hitter, he’s as gifted as any of the four players listed right above him. The guy can hit any pitch, works a mature whole field approach, and goes into each at bat with a plan in place. The reason he is ranked behind those four prospects has to do with his power upside. Bridgewater’s raw power is considered closer to above-average or good than the good to plus range of Davis, Gonzalez, Krill, and Richoux. I know power isn’t everything, but if there was any position where it is key, it’s obviously first base.
11. 1B Skyler Ewing (Arlington HS, Texas)
Listed as a catcher in most spots, and there is a chance he’ll stick there, but I think his plus raw power will have more of a chance to shine once he loses the tools of ignorance.
12. 1B Michael Gunn (Christian Brothers HS, Arkansas)
Gunn is one of the many intriguing two-way prospects on this list. He’s further ahead as a defender at first than he is at the plate, but a team could buy in to the idea that time away from pitching will help accelerate his development as a hitter.
13. 1B Trevor Gretzky (Oaks Christian HS, California)
I feel like this ranking might catch some heat because so many have completely written off Gretzky as a prospect propped up solely due to his famous father. I think there is something there with the bat, and his athleticism, second only to Wallace Gonzalez’s in this group, will really help in the transition to pro ball. The backlash he’s received in some scouting circles makes me think he’d be a better ballplayer to some if only his name was Trevor Smith.
14. 1B JD Davis (Elk Grove HS, California)
Yet another two-way player likely heading off to college. Davis sports a well-rounded skill set, but no plus tool that will get a scout hot and bothered.
15. 1B Kyle Martin (Wade Hampton HS, South Carolina)
Martin could be worth a flier later on as a power guy with some upside. Like many near the back end of this list, he seems like a safe bet to head off to college to spend a few years getting smart.
Final 2011 MLB Draft High School Catcher Rankings
1. C Blake Swihart (Cleveland HS, New Mexico)
The hardest prospects to write about are the ones at the top of lists like this. What more can be said about Swihart that hasn’t already been said? The Texas commit has shown all five tools (hit, power, defense, arm, and speed) this spring, an extreme rarity for a catcher at any level. I realize speed is easily the least important tool you’d need to see in a catching prospect, but Swihart’s average running ability works as a proxy for his outstanding athleticism. In that way, Swihart is the prototype for the next generation of catchers. After an almost decade long flirtation with jumbo-sized backstops (e.g. Joe Mauer and Matt Wieters), baseball is going back towards an emphasis on athleticism and defense behind the dish.
A no-brainer to stick behind the plate (the aforementioned athleticism and reported 95 MPH-caliber arm from the mound will help), Swihart’s biggest tool is his bat. Plus opposite field power and consistent line drives are not the norm for a typical prep prospect, but Swihart’s hit and power tools both project as plus in the future. I stand by my belief that Swihart will catch for a long time as a professional, but his great athleticism and plus bat might convince a team to fast track Swihart’s development by switching him to third base or right field. It should also be noted that Swihart has a little extra leverage because he’ll be draft-eligible again in 2013 after his sophomore season.
2. C Eric Haase (Divine Child HS, Michigan)
The biggest question mark on Haase is how the Westland, Michigan native wound up committing to Ohio State in the first place. Lack of allegiance to his home state university aside (I kid!), Haase profiles similarly to Blake Swihart, except without Swihart’s switch-hitting ability. Despite the typical risk involved that comes from selecting a cold weather prospect early, he’ll still find his way ranked near the top of some clubs’ draft boards. Strong defensive chops, plus athleticism, a strong pro-ready build, and a balanced swing will do that for a guy.
3. C Riley Moore (San Marcos HS, California)
One of the draft’s fastest risers, Riley Moore does two things really, really well. Moore can throw with the best of them and Moore can hit the ball a long way. Plus arm strength and plus raw power will get a young catcher very far on draft day. Throw in an above-average hit tool and really nifty footwork behind the plate and you’ve got yourself a young player with the potential to be a first division starter.
4. C Elvin Soto (Xaverian HS, New York)
Of my many odd player evaluation biases, one of the weirdest is my affinity for players from non-traditional locales. Something about the possibility of untapped ability just gets me all worked up, I suppose. Like Eric Haase before him, in Soto we have another cold weather prospect with a well-rounded skill set. I see big promise with the bat, a pro-caliber arm, and the potential for plus defense in the very near future.
5. C Garrett Boulware (TL Hanna HS, South Carolina)
Without the benefit of meaningful statistics, two of the most difficult things to assess at the high school level are plate discipline and pitch recognition. Boulware’s patient approach to hitting has gotten raves from everybody I’ve heard from, so, with the absence of BB/K data, I’m ready to take those positive reports and run with them. There is a chance Boulware gets moved off the position, but I think his above-average arm and good but not great hands should keep him a catcher for at least a few years.
6. C Cameron Gallagher (Manheim Township HS, Pennsylvania)
The “local” guy that I’ve seen this year a few times – 90 minutes away is local, right? – has had himself an oddly inconsistent year for a potential top five round draft prospect. He reminds me a good bit of Tyler Marlette, except with a tiny bit (we’re talking teeny tiny) less arm strength and a good bit more raw power and physical strength. So, basically, he reminds me of Marlette except for three pretty big differences – maybe that’s not the best comp after all. Gallagher is still a very raw defender, but steady improvement throughout the spring has led me to believe he can remain a catcher, assuming he doesn’t experience another growth spurt. The raw power is undeniably his biggest strength and there are some who think he’s got enough bat to handle first base if the whole catching thing doesn’t pan out. Not sure I’m buying into the bat that hard, but also not sure he’ll be moving to first any time soon.
7. C Austin Hedges (JSerra HS, California)
I don’t feel too bad about ranking Austin Hedges lower than most because, when it comes down to it, what do these rankings really mean anyway? I hope they are a good resource for fans checking in on their team’s newest draft pick, but they won’t influence what happens on draft day one iota. Despite my lack of love, Hedges is a potential first rounder. Words don’t really do his defense justice, but I’ll give it my best shot all the same. Austin Hedges is already one of the 30 best defensive catchers in the country. I’m talking pro, college, and anything in between. Young catchers who can pull off a plus-plus arm, fantastic hands, and all-around plus receiving ability are few and far between. The bat is the problem. He has a long way to go before being labeled a finished product, but, as of now, I’d have to really squint hard to see a future where Hedges ever hits more than one of the league’s lesser 8-hole hitters. Selfishly, I’d love to see him go to UCLA on the off-chance that he’d get some time on the mound and really put that cannon of a right arm to work.
8. C Nicky Delmonico (Farragut HS, Tennessee)
Delmonico is another player who could realistically sneak into the first round who I’m not quite as high on as others. He’ll get the last laugh on draft day, so I don’t feel too bad breaking him down now. In Delmonico, I don’t see a standout tool. His arm works alright and there is some power upside, but there is no one part of his game that makes you stand up and take notice. In his defense, well, I like his defense. So many had written him off as a catcher, but in my brief looks and the scouting reports I’ve read, I don’t see anything that makes me think he’ll have to move to first anytime soon.
9. C Tyler Marlette (Hagerty HS, Florida)
Marlette has as much upside at the plate as any high school catcher sans Swihart, but questions about his defense continue to suppress his stock. The shame of it is that he has above-average defensive tools – he’s surprisingly natural behind the plate – but lacks the polish that comes with years of practice at the position. The aforementioned upside as a hitter works in much the same way. In batting practice Marlette is a monster, but he’s more of a gap-to-gap hitter in game action thus far. A solid defensive catcher with plus power is a heck of a prospect, of course. An iffy defensive catcher who may or may not stick with gap power is less exciting. This is where teams who have seen Marlette multiple times over a couple of years have a huge leg up on what I do.
10. C Grayson Greiner (Blythewood HS, South Carolina)
Regular readers of the site knew I couldn’t get past the top ten without throwing a major upside play in there somewhere. Greiner is a little bit under the radar, partly because of a really strong commitment to South Carolina. I mentioned earlier that teams are moving away from bigger catchers, but Greiner’s picture perfect 6-5, 220 pound frame could have a few teams backpedaling on that strategy just a wee bit. With that pro-ready frame comes, you guessed it, plus raw power and really intriguing arm strength. With that pro-ready frame also come some mechanical issues that need to be ironed out, but that’s a problem for the minor league instructors, not the faceless baseball draft writer.
11. C Greg Bird (Grandview HS, Colorado)
Bird came into the year a big prospect, but much of the hype that came with catching Kevin Gausman last year seems to have disappeared after Gausman went off to LSU. The Colorado high school catcher has a little bit of Cameron Gallagher to his game. Both prospects are raw defensively with impressive raw power that has been seen firsthand by area scouts at the high school level. That’s an important thing to note, I think. We hear so much about raw power, so it is worth pointing out when a player has plus raw power and average present power. That’s where I think Bird is currently at. There might not be a ton of projection to him, for better or worse.
12. C Brandon Sedell (American Heritage HS, Florida)
Sedell is a pro-ready backstop from a high school program with a deserved reputation of being a pro ballplayer producing factory. His calling card is his tremendous raw power, though it is limited somewhat to the pull side. He won’t win any Gold Gloves for his work behind the plate and his throws down to second won’t evoke comparisons of the Molina brothers, but he sets up a nice target for his pitcher and moves around laterally better than you’d expect from a big guy. He gets bonus points for his extensive experience catching high velocity arms. This may be a little nuts, but I feel as though the recent pros that have come out of American Heritage in recent years (most notably Eric Hosmer, still the most advanced high school bat I’ve ever seen) have brainwashed some scouts into thinking the game comes easy to all prep players there. Sedell isn’t Hosmer, but he’s still a damn fine pro prospect with big league starter upside.
13. C BreShon Kimbell (Mesquite HS, Texas)
Kimbell is unusually strong, very athletic, and a gifted defender. He also has shown big raw power in the past, but inconsistencies with his swing mechanics make his trips to the plate hit or miss, no pun intended. Some good pro coaching could turn him into a high level pro prospect in short order. Also, BreShon – a fella with a name like that is obviously destined for greatness, even though I sometimes read it as Bre$hon.
14. C Brett Austin (Providence HS, North Carolina)
First Austin Hedges, then Nicky Delmonico, and now Brett Austin – my trio of lower than expected rankings is finally complete. It all comes down to what you want in a catcher, I guess. I’ll take defensive ability, raw power, mature hitting actions, and arm strength, in that order. If you don’t have a plus tool in any of those four areas, I’m a little nervous. Austin’s defensive work has been spotty this spring, and he’s not assured of starting his professional career as a catcher. I’d generously give him a 55 on raw power – damn good to be sure, but not on the level of a handful of players ranked above him – and his arm is average on his best day. He’s got impressive athleticism and arguably the best foot speed of any prep catching prospect, so a position switch – second base, maybe? – could actually help his pro standing in my eyes.
15. C AJ Murray (Westfield HS, New Jersey)
Fast-rising prospect poised to make me look stupid for having him this low. Area scouts rave about his athleticism and sheer physical strength.
And now for five more guys that I couldn’t bear to leave out, but knew that if I started to write a little something about them then I’d wind up writing about high school catchers forever. With two weeks until the draft, that’s a no-no. Five additional high school catchers that I’m high on with very brief thoughts on each:
16. C Daniel Mengden (Westside HS, Texas)
A good low-90s fastball has most preferring Mengden on the mound, but I’m going to stubbornly stick by him as the receiving end of a pitcher-catcher battery, thank you very much. Why do I like him as a catcher? Well, you already know he has a plus arm back there and his defensive actions are all very good. I also have liked what I’ve seen out of his swing so far; it is the kind of level, line drive producing swing that might not generate a ton of raw power, but will help him keep the ball off the ground and into the gaps.
17. C Taylor Nichols (Faith Academy, Alabama)
Quick draft day math problem for you: plus power plus plus arm strength minus strong college commitment (no offense South Alabama) equals potential top ten round catching prospect.
18. C Hunter Lockwood (LD Bell HS, Texas)
No weaknesses in Lockwood’s game, just a really solid, well-rounded skill set.
19. C Aramis Garcia (Pines Charter HS, Florida)
Similar to Nichols in that he’s best known for his power bat and power arm.
20. C Dylan Delso (Broken Arrow HS, Oklahoma)
Like Greg Bird and Brandon Sedell above, Delso has no problems catching high velocity heat. Archie Bradley’s prep catcher approves.
Checking the Temperature – 2011 MLB Draft Potential First Round Prospects (High School)
Time to wrap up what seems like my first five post week in forever. Because the new layout only shows one post at a time (not sure I like this quirk, but I’m willing to try it out), here’s a quick review of the week that was:
- Game Notes: Connecticut @ Villanova
- College Catchers Revisited 2.0 – 2011 MLB Draft
- College First Basemen Revisited – 2011 MLB Draft
- College First Basemen Revisited 2.0 – 2011 MLB Draft
I’m going to spend the weekend celebrating my momentous week by watching some amateur ball and getting back to all the wonderful readers who have left a whole bunch of comments and emails. Before getting to that, however, how about a real quick list of prep players that I’ve read or heard linked to the first round over the past few weeks? Obviously, we won’t have an all high school first round this year — although a first round composed entirely of college pitching can’t be ruled out — so not every player listed will be a first rounder. It is also possible that they’ll be a first rounder or five from the high school ranks that isn’t even on my list. As the Vikings showed yesterday, predicting the draft is as inexact a science (always wondered why you hear that phrase associated with sports more than almost any other professional field) as you can get…
Quick disclaimer and a request. First, this isn’t a list any kind of ranking or a personal top prospect list. It’s just an aggregation of all kinds of draft info accrued over the past few weeks. If somebody, somewhere said Shon Carson could be drafted “late in the first” or something like that, I took note and added a new name to the list. Simple as that. Here’s the request: if I left anybody off (looking over my list again, I’d guess I’m probably light on the pitching side) that has been linked to the first round elsewhere, please don’t hesitate to yell at me in the comments.
- 1B Dan Vogelbach (Bishop Verot HS, Florida)
- 1B Nick Delmonico (Farragut HS, Tennessee)
- 2B Phillip Evans (La Costa Canyon HS, California)
- 2B Johnny Eierman (Warsaw HS, Missouri)
- 2B Shon Carson (Lake City HS, South Carolina)
- 3B Travis Harrison (Tustin HS, California)
- 3B Javier Baez (Arlington County Day HS, Florida)
- C Austin Hedges (JSerra HS, California)
- C Blake Swihart (Cleveland HS, New Mexico)
- SS Francisco Lindor (Montverde Academy, Florida)
- SS Julius Gaines (Luella HS, Georgia)
- OF Billy Flamion (Central Catholic HS, California)
- OF Brandon Nimmo (Cheyenne East HS, Wyoming)
- OF Charles Tilson (New Trier HS, Illinois)
- OF Granden Goetzman (Palmetto HS, Florida)
- OF Derek Fisher (Cedar Crest HS, Pennsylvania)
- OF Dwight Smith (McIntosh HS, Georgia)
- OF Josh Bell (Jesuit College Prep School, Texas)
- OF Shawon Dunston (Valley Christian HS, California)
- OF Sean Trent (Bishop Moore Catholic HS, Florida)
- OF Bubba Starling (Gardner-Edgerton HS, Kansas)
- OF Josh Tobias (Southeast Guilford HS, South Carolina)
- LHP Daniel Norris (Science Hill HS, Tennessee)
- LHP Henry Owens (Edison HS, California)
- LHP Jake Cave (Kecoughtan HS, Virginia)
- RHP Archie Bradley (Broken Arrow HS, Oklahoma)
- RHP Dillon Howard (Searcy HS, Arkansas)
- RHP Dylan Bundy (Owasso HS, Oklahoma)
- RHP Joe Ross (Bishop O’Dowd HS, California)
- RHP Jose Fernandez (Alonso HS, Florida)
- RHP Robert Stephenson (Alhambra HS, California)
- RHP Taylor Guerrieri (North Augusta HS, South Carolina)
- RHP Tyler Beede (Lawrence Academy, Massachusetts)
College First Basemen Revisited 2.0 – 2011 MLB Draft
First 15 there, next 15 here. Rankings are from the preseason list, numbers are from College Splits (when applicable), and opinions are entirely mine, and thus, probably wrong…
16. Cal Irvine JR 1B Jordan Leyland (.266/.340/.422 – 14 BB/31 K)
I had hoped a return to full health after struggling with a wrist injury last season would allow Leyland to show off his plus raw power.
17. Wake Forest JR 1B Austin Stadler
One at bat, one RBI groundout. That’s all Stadler has done at the plate in 2011. He’s been lit up as a starting pitcher (9.77 ERA in 47 IP), but his underlying numbers aren’t that terrible (4.55 FIP with 8.81 K/9). His season stats and scouting profile both read like Nick Ramirez, only if Ramirez wasn’t quite as good as he is. He’s the Hydrox to Nick Ramirez’s Oreo, if you will.
18. Washington SR 1B Troy Scott (.303/.374/.432 – 14 BB/22 K)
There was a point early last year when Scott was the top ranked college first baseman on my unpublished 2010 draft rankings. Whoops.
19. Georgia JR 1B Chase Davidson (.275/.342/.451 – 9 BB/33 K)
Remember the Jim Thome comps some threw Davidson’s way back in his high school days? Man, I was all over those. When he is totally locked in and you catch him in just the right light, yeah, maybe you can kind of sort of maybe see the basis for that original comparison, maybe. The problem, as shown through the lens of his less than inspiring season stats, is that Davidson’s time spent locked in isn’t enough to make him a viable pro prospect. That said, guys with his kind of raw power tend to get plenty of chances, and it only takes one team to believe professional coaching can get him back to his pre-college level of performance.
20. LSU SO 1B Jamie Bruno
No stats for Bruno as he sits out the year after leaving Tulane. I don’t think he has a chance to be drafted this year, so consider this aggressive ranking a placeholder for 2012.
21. Embry-Riddle JR 1B Matt Skipper
The well-traveled Skipper is sitting out the year as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
22. Central Florida SR 1B Jonathan Griffin (.342/.397/.640 – 17 BB/32 K)
Griffin is the prototypical hulking (6-5, 230) first base slugger with ridiculous raw power and nothing else. You can be one-dimensional when that one dimension is as strong as Griffin’s power tool is, but his battle is still an uphill one.
23. South Alabama JR 1B Brad Hook (.298/.430/.460 – 27 BB/32 K)
Hook is yet another versatile performer, logging 37.1 decent innings on the mound in addition to his work at first base. A lot of players are mentioned as having just enough defensive aptitute to handle other positions (most commonly LF, RF, and 3B), but Hook actually has the chance of being average or better in the outfield.
24. San Diego JR 1B Bryan Haar (.320/.364/.410 – 6 BB/30 K)
After mocking eventual 26th rounder to the Phillies in the first round early last year, I really should have been smart enough to wise up and stop falling for prospects from USD. My notes on Haar heading into the season:
might list with either 3B or OF, as he is too good an athlete to restrict to first base; good raw power; good defender; power, speed, and arm strength all rate as above-average for position, but hasn’t lived up to potential as of yet; could play 3B this year with Kris Bryant at first; swing is holding him back as a hitter; great frame, like him a lot; utility future maybe; “Haar has a pro body, good defensive instincts, and an advanced approach at the plate.”
I’m obviously less enthused after his disappointing junior season. We’ll try again with Haar next year.
25. Kansas JR 1B Zac Elgie (.264/.325/.443 – 11 BB/24 K)
Elgie, one of North Dakota’s finest prep ballplayers and arguably the biggest recruit in recent Kansas baseball history, has had an up and down college career to this point. I know of a few pro teams that think he’s got the arm and athleticism to make the conversion to professional catcher.
26. Central Florida SO 1B DJ Hicks (.369/.443/.664 – 22 BB/28 K) (also logged 10.1 IP with good K-rate)
If any player on the list can be classified as a big 2011 draft riser, it’s this guy. With arguably the most raw power of any draft-eligible first baseman, Hicks is a certifiable sleeping giant in the prospect world. yet another intriguing two-way talent. His scouting report reminds me of a catcher — plus to plus-plus raw power and plus arm strength — so it is no surprise that there is some thought he’d work better at third, his occasional college position. He also is a pitching prospect who features an above-average (at times) fastball with what I consider a promising splitter.
27. Wofford JR 1B Konstantine Diamaduros (.313/.360/.388 – 13 BB/17 K)
If we’re looking for silver linings here, at least Diamaduros will have the chance to be on college baseball’s all name team for an extra year after he returns to Wofford in 2012.
28. Ouachita Baptist JR 1B Brock Green (.366/.484/.575 – 29 BB/24 K)
I’ll often compile notes on a player over the course of a few years. One of my bad habits is not dating my notes. So when I look back and see the following notes on Brock Green, I can’t help but laugh. Among a few other tidbits, the notes claim Green is both a “potential plus defender” and possesses an “iron glove.” I suppose they technically could both be true — the upside vs present performance thing — but I’m guessing it is more of an issue of timing than anything.
29. Barry SR 1B Dean Green (.414/.532/.845 – 33 BB/20 K)
Issues with competition aside, Dean Green is straight killing it this year. The former Oklahoma State Cowboy has already shown he can hang with the big boys by performing well on the Cape.
30. Oregon SR 1B Stephen Kaupang
Not listed on the Oregon 2011 roster and I couldn’t figure out what in the world happened to him. Anybody know?
College First Basemen Revisited – 2011 MLB Draft
Not every draft is like 2008. Not every draft is like 2008. Not every draft is like 2008. That’s my mantra as I check and recheck the list of 2011 draft-eligible college first basemen. Are you sure this is everybody? There are no Justin Smoak’s, Yonder Alonso’s, or, heck, even Ike Davis’s hiding anywhere? Sure, David Cooper and Allan Dykstra went bust, but there were both highly thought of at the time. This may be over the top negative (it’s what I do best, after all), but I’m not positive there is a slam dunk top five round college first baseman this year, let alone five players capable of cracking the first like in 2008. Incidentally, when looking back over that draft I’m always amazed at the stones, for lack of a better term, Kansas City showed by taking Eric Hosmer third. I know he was an outstanding high school hitter, but taking a prep first baseman before accomplished college talents like Brian Matusz (4th), Buster Posey (5th), and Justin Smoak (11th) took some serious intestinal fortitude. Posey is a stud and both Matusz and Smoak have shown enough promise that we can expect big things going forward, but Hosmer has a chance to be one of the elite middle of the lineup hitters in all of baseball in very short order. The book is far from closed on any of these players, and I’ll acknowledge that Posey would be a tremendous addition to the emerging Royals core, but, man, I have to give credit where credit is due on that pick. Loads of high picks year after year will often lead to good things, but in any sport, especially baseball, you still need to identify the right guy. Hosmer might not have been the only right guy in 2008, but he certainly looks like one of them.
Oh, right. 2011 college first basemen. Here is the original list. I don’t see a clear big league starter in the bunch, though I’m admittedly all aboard the Preston Tucker bandwagon. If any guy winds up starting for a big league team, it’ll be him. The rest look like potential four-corners utility guys (1B/3B/corner OF), pinch hitters, or platoon options. No shame in any of those outcomes, of course, so long as nobody out there is banking on getting a close to the big leagues power hitting college first baseman this year.
1. Florida JR 1B Preston Tucker (.361/.424/.627 – 15 BB/18 K)
I wrote a bit about Tucker in the past, so I won’t get into too much detail now. Here are the money quotes from last time, if you’re too cool to click the link:
To be an above-average first baseman in the bigs, you either need to have a special bat, outrageously good defense, or a well above-average mixture of the two. To that end, I’m not sure Tucker, or any other college first baseman in this class, is a prospect that will wind up receiving a first round grade, from me personally or any of the thirty big league scouting departments…
…Late first round seems like his draft ceiling. Fifth round, like fellow SEC 1B Andy Wilkins in 2010, could be his floor, barring injury.
2. Southern California JR 1B Ricky Oropesa (.384/.459/.582 – 21 BB/30 K)
There’s still too much swing and miss in his approach than I’d like, but the fact Oropesa fits the classic slugging first baseman mold better than Tucker could help him become the first college 1B off the board. Scouts want the best players, obviously, but they do have their biases. I think said bias could help Oropesa this June.
3. St. Mary’s JR 1B Troy Channing (.292/.366/.454 – 11 BB/34 K)
I know for a fact one team preferred Channing to Tucker heading into the season, though I can’t imagine that is still the case after his down showing so far this year.
4. Fresno State SR 1B Jordan Ribera (.206/.293/.382 – 13 BB/30 K)
Take a minute and process Ribera’s 2011 numbers. That’s one complete and utter collapse. I can’t believe that it is entirely the new bats to blame, like some have insinuated. Unlike Channing, Ribera doesn’t have the option of returning to school in 2012, so he can’t do much more than to hold out hope some team saw him at his best in 2010.
5. Washington State JR 1B Taylor Ard (.301/.374/.431 – 12 BB/15 K)
All of the numbers are park/league adjusted, but sometimes even more context is needed. Ard isn’t your typical college junior. As a former junior college star, Ard’s acquitted himself well enough in his first year of major college ball that I think a team that liked him heading into the season would still be on board now. His upside rivals that of any first baseman in the class.
6. East Tennessee State SR 1B Paul Hoilman (.275/.441/.580 – 38 BB/46 K)
How could you not possibly love this year’s draft Three True Outcome hero? Over half (54% to be precise) of his at bats end in a homer, walk, or strikeout. Cool.
7. Cal State Fullerton JR 1B Nick Ramirez (.280/.401/.440 – 24 BB/23 K)
I’m really, really fond of Nick Ramirez the college baseball player (his pitching stats: 12.1 IP – 1.51 FIP – 13.86 K/9 – 3.65 BB/9) and think he’s a viable option either at first or on the mound professionally. He has a reputation as a guess hitter, but I’ve heard his approach has gotten much better in 2011. As a pitcher, his upper-70s changeup is a legit out pitch, though it is kind of a shame that it isn’t even the best cambio in his family…
8. UCLA JR 1B Dean Espy (.299/.354/.381 – 10 BB/23 K)
Probably time to start thinking about the 2012 Draft with numbers like that…
9. Vanderbilt SR 1B Aaron Westlake (.377/.505/.596 – 32 BB/33 K) – I can live with ranking a player highly only to see him flame out. I realize the risk that comes with sometimes being too optimistic. I hate it when a player I like but am too chicken to rank appropriately plays great. Pretty sure all of that makes me a bad person – being indifferent if a player struggles, but annoyed when a player succeeds rates seems pretty selfish. If it helps, I always feel guilty about it. Westlake is one such source of annoyance. The Vanderbilt senior ranked as high as second on my original, off the top of my head list, but wound up ninth after I shuffled up some other names that I felt had more upside. Dumb move. All Westlake does is hit.
10. North Carolina State JR 1B Harold Riggins (.302/.442/.442 – 29 BB/46 K)
Another personal favorite coming into the year who hasn’t delivered quite what was expected in the power department. Positional versatility could help him make it as one of those four-corners utility guys we talked about earlier.
11. Mississippi SR 1B Matt Snyder (.273/.396/.445 – 21 BB/32 K)
Haven’t seen him myself, but have heard less than nice things about his defense. When scouts wonder if you have what it takes to stick at first, you’d better be able to hit a ton. Snyder is a nice college thumper, but nothing about his scouting profile or college numbers scream big league hitter to me.
12. Northwestern JR 1B Paul Snieder (.352/.450/.544 – 22 BB/24 K)
Snieder is reportedly a tough sign, but I like him as an org guy for a lot of the same reasons I like Western Kentucky C Matt Rice.
13. Cal State Fullerton SO 1B Carlos Lopez (.329/.400/.447 – 11 BB/7 K)
Only 85 at bats, so we’re dealing with a limited sample but I remain intrigued at Lopez’s skill set and performance to date.
14. Oklahoma JR 1B Cameron Seitzer (.331/.429/.476 – 20 BB/20 K)
I was lower on him than most, and remain cautiously optimistic at best, but I’d remiss if I didn’t point out a lot of positive chatter about Seitzer’s more mature frame and subsequent transformation from guy with big raw power to guy with loads of in-game power, despite what the relatively modest slugging numbers may indicate. He’ll probably go higher than a few names listed above him here, but, hey, it’s my list, right?
15. Southern Illinois JR 1B Chris Serritella
Serritella has missed time due to wrist injury and has a whopping 0 ABs this year. Have to imagine the injury will keep him at Southern Illinois for another season or two.
College Catchers Revisited 2.0 – 2011 MLB Draft
I wanted to follow up on last week’s post comparing the preseason ranking of college catchers with what they’ve done so far in 2011. That post looked at the top ten ranked players only; today we check on the catchers ranked 11-30. All stats come once again from College Splits with the exception of the junior college and DII numbers. Players aren’t listed in any particular order, other than being grouped together for my personal convenience.
(I’m still working out some kinks on the redesign. I like it well enough so far, but there are things I want to improve on. Pretty sure I don’t like that only one post shows up at a time, I think the text looks a little squished, and the tools in the background might be a little a) esoteric, or b) straight up ugly…haven’t decided yet. If anybody has any thoughts, feel free to comment or email me…I’m pretty useless when it comes to this kind of stuff, so any input, nice or not so nice, is welcomed.)
- Arkansas JR C James McCann: 296/396/478 (17 BB/13 K)
- California JR C Chadd Krist: 368/442/552 (17 BB/20 K)
- Auburn SR C Tony Caldwell: 315/426/537 (17 BB/21 K)
- Virginia JR C John Hicks: 379/429/522 (12 BB/12 K)
- Georgetown SR C Erick Fernandez: 330/414/539 (10 BB/12 K)
I’d argue that all of the players above are doing just about what most followers of the draft (i.e. dorks like me) thought they would do in 2011. In other words, if you liked one of these guys before the year, chances are you like him just the same, if not a smidgen more, right about now. I was impressed with the much discussed McCann’s well above-average athleticism and solid speed (for a catcher) in my admittedly quick look at him.
Florida JR C Ben McMahan only has 39 at bats so far. While I still believe in him from a scouting standpoint, his aggressive ranking looks like a big swing and miss at this point. Taylor Hightower was another potential sleeper heading into the year who I still hold out hope for, but have to admit has left me feeling a little down on my prognosticating abilities. His numbers (.305/.414/.424 – 8 BB/12 K) are an improvement over his disastrous 2010 stats, but, like fellow SEC member McMahan, he just doesn’t have the plate appearances to draw any conclusions one way or another. Still think both guys play big league caliber defense, a talent good enough to at least warrant backup big league catcher upside, but improvement with the bat will ultimately determine their respective ceilings.
UCLA JR C Steve Rodriguez and Central Florida JR C Beau Taylor have both suffered from a power outage so far in 2011. I tend to be crazy optimistic on almost every player’s draft stock, but it seems like both Rodriguez and Taylor won’t have much of a choice but to return to school in 2012. Nothing wrong with getting that degree, of course.
Pittsburgh SR C Kevan Smith: 387/463/621 (14 BB/10 K)
Smith has been awesome at the plate (see above) and on the base paths (10/10 SB). It is great to see a player with such special physical gifts who is able to translate raw upside into big time college production. I never really have much of a clue how actual big league front offices view draft prospects and I haven’t heard any buzz about Smith’s draft stock, but I sure like him. Definitely on my short list of top senior signs.
College of Charleston JR C Rob Kral: 342/509/542 (43 BB/15 K)
Kral’s defense is the big concern, but there are no doubts whatsoever about the bat. Unfortunately, Kral doesn’t have the luxury of moving off catcher due to his lack of height and mobility. He reminds a little bit of Eric Arce in that way. I think his draft ceiling might be right around where Dan Black of Purdue went in 2009 (16th round). Should be no surprise that a guy with that kind of plate discipline qualifies as a personal favorite of mine.
Wofford JR C Mac Doyle: 298/398/582 (16 BB/30 K)
Doyle’s always had a bit of an “all or nothing” swing and this year is no different.
Michigan JR C Coley Crank: 273/367/479 (15 BB/34 K)
One of my updated reports on Crank reads simply: “Gets in his own way defensively; feasts on average or worse fastballs and nothing else.” Not super encouraging…
- LSU-Eunice FR C Hommy Rosado: 355/467/600 (20 BB/29 K)
- Chipola JC SO C Geno Escalante: 357/416/545 (9 BB/17 K)
- Franklin Pierce JR C Mike Dowd: 378/432/593 (12 BB/4 K)
It’s tricky to put junior college numbers in context, but let’s try. That .355 BA looks wonderful, and I take nothing away from it, but keep in mind Rosado is only sixth on his team in terms of batting average. However, he’s second on the team in SLG. He’s also incorrectly placed on this list, as it turns out, seeing as he’s played almost exclusively at third this spring. With 10 errors and below-average range at the hot corner, he’s likely a man without a position. Next stop, first base. Escalante is the other junior college guy on the list; his numbers are obviously a notch below Rosado’s even with his added year of post-high school experience. Dowd, our lone Division II star on the list, has managed the strike zone brilliantly for Franklin Pierce while also ranking second among qualifiers in both BA and SLG. His arm may be his only above-average tool, but his bat, gap power, and defense should all play just fine at the next level.
Samford JR C Brandon Miller: 318/397/742 (16 BB/27 K)
Tulane JR C Jeremy Schaffer: 410/471/669 (13 BB/16 K)
Miller is a really underrated athlete with ample raw power and great physical strength, but, like so many near the bottom of these rankings, might not play the brand of defense pro teams seek out this time of year. You could probably say the same about Schaeffer, except the reports I’ve gotten on his defense all indicate he’s getting a teeny bit better every day.
Western Kentucky SR C Matt Rice: 348/432/529 (25 BB/22 K)
Rice is a definite riser in my mind; very little chance he winds up as 2011’s Mr. Irrelevant (last overall pick in draft) like he was in 2010. He’s still a late-rounder, but he makes a lot of sense in the larger context of the draft. Sure, the ultimate goal is to draft as many potential big league contributors as possible. We all know that much. Come rounds 25 and on, however, you’re mixing and matching prep athletes with upside and signability questions and org players needed to fill out minor league rosters. Rice strikes me as a perfect org guy – great teammate, wonderful influence on his peers, and not totally devoid of talent in his own right.
Virginia SR C Kenny Swab: 327/481/446 (22 BB/19 K) 9/9 SB
Swab is a personal favorite from last year that I consistently overrate. Love his mix of plate discipline, above-average pop, and defensive versatility.
Game Notes: Connecticut @ Villanova
Connecticut JR OF George Springer
JR OF George Springer looked nothing like the player I had read so much about this spring. His results may not have been what you’d like to see, but the improved process stood out. Good pro coaching will do wonders for him, though it will be really interesting to see how much tinkering his future employer will really want to do after investing a hefty bonus in the college version of Springer’s swing. He looks a little bow-legged in the photo above, but it isn’t a great representation of his swing setup because it captures him just as he started his stride. I had great video of him swinging the bat, but it disappeared into the ether during a file conversion. As for Springer’s swing, again, I’m not a scout, but I was really impressed with his balance at the plate, both in his approach and follow through. I didn’t like his collapsed back elbow, but found many of his flaws to be those decidedly under the “Coach Him Up and He’ll Be Alright” umbrella. This may be a cop-out, but the rise of so many other prospects could really be a boon for Springer’s career. Taking him in the top ten scares the heck out of me, but if he slips closer to the middle or end of the round, watch out. Lowered expectations + more stable pro organization, especially at the big league level (less need to rush him) = transformation from overrated to underrated almost overnight.
Another quick note I’ll pass along without much comment: George Springer cares. I realize this is a dangerous game to play because, really, how can we ever know such a thing, but George Springer (his name just sounds better when you use the first and the last) cares, or, at worst, is one heck of an actor. I’d never get on a player for not reacting to a strikeout with anger (and, by extension, showing that they care) because, as a quiet guy myself, I know demonstrative displays of emotion shouldn’t be the standard by which we judge effort and dedication. But the way Springer reacted to an early strikeout — pacing back and forth in front of the bench seemingly in search of a tunnel to pop into and blow off some steam (soon enough, George) until finally settling to the far end of the dugout, just off to the side, where he took a knee, closed his eyes, and started pantomiming his swing — really stood out to me. Probably nothing, but there you go.
None of that changes my view of George Springer the prospect, by the way. Just thought it was a relatively interesting tidbit worth passing along. I have to admit that I do kind of love the idea of a player with a wOBA approaching .500 getting that worked up over a bad at bat. Or maybe I love the way a player who is is clearly pressing at the plate has still somehow managed to put up a league/park adjusted triple slash of .386/.482/.667 (as of mid-April).
Two pro comparisons for Springer came immediately to mind. The first is 100% physical and in no way any kind of projection of future pro value. Something about Springer’s body, swing, and overall on-field demeanor reminded me a great deal of Florida’s Mike Stanton. Again, the two are very different players, but the physical similarities were interesting. A comp like that is probably why most people don’t like comps, but they’ll live.
The second comparison is much, much better, I think. Springer’s upside and overall tools package remind me so much of Minnesota minor leaguer Joe Benson that it’s scary. File that one away…
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He’s no speed demon on the basepaths, he won’t approach double digit homers as a pro, and he’s not build like a prototypical professional outfielder, but, boy, JR OF John Andreoli can swing the bat. The way he controls the bat through the zone is a sight to behold. Some of the guy’s hits couldn’t have been rolled by hand into holes any better than he hits them. Beyond the pure hit tool, I asked around about certain players before the game, and almost to a man I was told to watch out for Andreoli’s bunting. One gorgeous second inning push bunt for a single might not be stone cold proof of anything, but it gave the pregame prognostication a little extra weight. He’s a well above-average defender in a corner that might be stretched some in center, though I’m not so sure his 55ish speed wouldn’t also work up the middle. Andreoli is probably nothing more than a late round organizational player at this point, but he could make for an interesting senior sign in 2012.
SR LHP Greg Nappo‘s upper-80s fastball plays up because of good deception in his delivery. It is still probably a below-average pitch on balance because the command isn’t quite what you’d hope it would be coming from a typical pitchability lefty. He relied quite heavily on the heater, mixing in occasional cutters and an average slow curve that he could drop into the strike zone more easily as the game went on. He’s also probably an organizational guy at this point, but he can always take pride that he’s the player featured in my header.
SO OF Billy Ferriter disappointed me a bit. Definite pro body, but he made a habit of swinging at junk and watching meaty fastballs go by. Small sample size, I know, but scouts made note that he’s made a habit of getting himself out all year long. Still like the upside, but have to keep telling myself he is only in his second year college ball. He’s draft-eligible this year, but unlikely to sign.
Really impressed by SO 2B LJ Mazzilli‘s swing and approach at the plate. He has a little toe-tap timing mechanism that reminds me a little bit of Mark Reynolds’ swing, only without the swing-and-miss length. Good speed, good athleticism, and good hands should keep him up the middle, and a little physical maturation at the plate could help turn him into one of those super annoying scrappy middle infielders we all know and love (or hate, depending on the player).
Still think I prefer JR UTIL Kevin Vance as part of a battery, whether that be behind the plate or on the mound, than at the hot corner. I like his above-average fastball/plus curveball combo and plus command as a potential relief arm down the line. If he sticks as a position player, I think that arm would be best served as a catcher. Surprised to see his batting line as weak as it is because I really liked his level, powerful, and well-balanced swing. A team could gamble on his upside, but it is starting to look like his down junior year could keep him a Husky for another season.
Villanova JR LHP Kyle Helisek has one of the most extreme wrist wraps/curls in the back during his delivery that I can remember. I won’t pretend to be an expert on pitching mechanics, but his windup looked painful to me. My main focus on the day was watching the Connecticut bats, so I didn’t notice much more than that, but I’ll probably see Helisek a few more times before the end of the year and/or next season.
Connecticut JR SS Nick Ahmed
I’m way more excited about JR SS Nick Ahmed‘s pro prospects after a weekend watching him play. My favorite sequence came after a 1-1 bunt attempt. Ahmed was hit with a pitch, but the umpire ruled he didn’t pull the bat back as he attempted to bunt for a hit. It wasn’t until he was halfway down the first base line until the umpire actually made the call. Ahmed was visibly upset with the call and kept repeating “no chance, no chance…” as he took to himself and anybody that would listen. Fast forward to later in the at bat: 3-2 count, fastball up in the zone, home run drilled deep and gone to left. No woofing afterwards, just a quick sprint around the bases, and back to the dugout. I’m still not totally sold on his power upside, but think he’ll hit enough to be league average with the bat assuming he plays a premium defensive position. On that note…
Ahmed is more difficult to judge in the field. He doesn’t look like a traditional shortstop (listed at 6-2, 205, though he was eye-to-eye with the 6-3 Springer), but he’s got a plus arm (not a direct comparison, but he has a similar flick of the wrist style throw to Jose Reyes) and more than enough athleticism to range in both directions. If he’s not a pro shortstop, and I really think he is, then he’d be best served moving to center, so as to better utilize his athleticism and surprising first step quickness, with third base as a backup to the backup. He has a long way to go before he becomes the player he’ll eventually be (if you can follow that), but I feel pretty comfortable slapping a big league utility guy floor on him.
Quick Look at 2011 Prep Position Players
Struggling with a mean case of writer’s block, so the old standby that is the arbitrary list rears its ugly head once again. 17 of the most intriguing hitting and fielding prospects from the world of high school baseball. Again, like the previous list of prep pitchers, this is not necessarily a ranking of the best high school prospects because, let’s be honest, I don’t really know what I’m talking about anyway, especially when it comes to prep guys. These are all just players that have caught my eye for one reason or another. Almost all of the players listed are really well thought of by front office types and big boy draft analysts alike, so don’t get the idea that I think I’m reinventing the iPad here (been told that updated references will appeal to a younger demographic and, judging by my complete lack of social media presence, irregular posting schedule, lazy attitude towards adding pictures, and resistance to doing weekly mock drafts, it should be clear that I’m all about trying to generate the page views!).
I don’t know why I added that last parenthetical point, let alone the terrible iPad “joke.” Maybe the pressure of writing whatever and whenever I want has finally gotten to me. My editor can be really demanding, you know? Thankfully, the money and fame make it all worth it in the end. And just in case anybody is out there waiting on pins and needles (couldn’t think of a more modern way to say that): I’ll be sure to post updates on all comments and the stray email or two in my inbox within the next 48 hours. Promise.
Like the pitching, this works best as a follow list for fans of the draft looking for names to do more homework on potential first day picks. In no order — besides alphabetically — 17 prep position players that I like:
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OF/1B Jacob Anderson (Chino HS, California)
3B Javier Baez (Arlington County Day HS, Florida)
OF Josh Bell (Jesuit College Prep School, Texas)
OF Shon Carson (Lake City HS, South Carolina)
SS Phillip Evans (La Costa Canyon HS, California)
OF Billy Flamion (Central Catholic HS, California)
C Cameron Gallagher (Manheim Township HS, Pennsylvania)
SS Tyler Greene (West Boca Raton HS, Florida)
OF/1B Travis Harrison (Tustin HS, California)
SS Francisco Lindor (Montverde Academy, Florida)
C Tyler Marlette (Hagerty HS, California)
3B Chris McFarland (Lufkin HS, Texas)
C Daniel Mengden (Westside HS, Texas)
OF Brandon Nimmo (Cheyenne East HS, Wyoming)
OF Bubba Starling (Gardner-Edgerton HS, Kansas)
C Blake Swihart (Cleveland HS, New Mexico)
2B/OF Josh Tobias (Southeast Guilford HS, South Carolina)
Quick Look at 2011 Prep Pitching
I’m not done talking about college prospects by any stretch, but with the draft a little over two months away I figured now is the time to start ramping up coverage of 2011’s best high school prospects. To kick things off, a list of 17 of my favorite prep arms. All usual caveats (not a complete list, still early in the process, haven’t seen any player live) apply, so feel free to add a name or two that I’m missing.
Honestly, I’m not sure what the point of this list is, if there is a point at all. These aren’t necessarily the best 17 high school pitching prospects (although they might be), they aren’t ranked in order, and there are definitely names missing that I want to add but will hold off on in the interest of time and space. Plus, and I’ll be as transparent as possible here, there really aren’t ground breaking names on this list. So I like Bradley, Bundy, and Norris; doesn’t everybody? Yeah, most if not all the names below are pretty well established at or near the top of any prep pitching list at this point, but, to be fair, there is a perfectly good reason for that. All of these pitchers are really good.
Guess the point here is a simple, oft-repeated one: this works best as a follow list for fans of the draft looking for names to do more homework on potential first day picks.
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RHP Archie Bradley (Broken Arrow HS, Oklahoma)
RHP Bryan Brickhouse (The Woodlands HS, Texas)
RHP Dylan Bundy (Owasso HS, Oklahoma)
RHP Nick Burdi (Downers Grove HS, Illinois)
LHP Jake Cave (Kecoughtan HS, Virginia)
RHP Jose Fernandez (Alonso HS, Florida)
RHP Taylor Guerrieri (North Augusta HS, South Carolina)
RHP Dillon Howard (Searcy HS, Arkansas)
RHP Michael Kelly (West Boca Raton Community HS, Florida)
RHP Jorge Lopez (Academia la Milagrosa, Puerto Rico)
RHP Dillon Maples (Pinecrest HS, North Carolina)
RHP Christian Montgomery (Lawrence Central HS, Indiana)
LHP Daniel Norris (Science Hill HS, Tennessee)
LHP Henry Owens (Edison HS, California)
LHP Philip Pfeifer (Farragut HS, Tennessee)
RHP Kyle Smith (Lake Worth HS, Florida)
RHP Robert Stephenson (Alhambra HS, California)
Last Batch of College Outfielders with Plus Tools
- Tulane SR OF Nick Boullosa – plus speed, plus range
- Charlotte JR OF Shane Brown – plate discipline, plus speed
- Cal State Northridge SR OF Ridge Carpenter – plus speed
- Arizona SR OF Bobby Rinard – plus arm, plus speed
- North Carolina SR OF Ben Bunting – plus range, plus speed
- Middle Tennessee State JR OF Justin Guidry – plus speed
- Dallas Baptist JR OF Landon Anderson – plus speed
- UC Santa Barbara JR OF Lance Roenicke – plus speed
- Tennessee SR OF Josh Liles – good track record of plate discipline
- New Mexico State SR OF Wesley Starkes – plus speed, plus range
- Washington State JR OF Kyle Johnson – plus speed, plus range
- Dayton SR OF Zach Blanchette – plus speed
- Clemson SR OF Chris Epps – good track record of plate discipline
- Louisville SR OF Drew Haynes – plus speed
- McNeese State JR OF Seth Granger – plus range
- Kennesaw State JR OF Jordan Craft – plus speed, plus arm
- Texas A&M JR OF Scott Arthur – plus speed, plus range
- Oklahoma JR OF Erik Ross – plus speed
- Rice SO OF Ryan Lewis – plus range
- College of Charleston JR OF Marty Gantt – plus speed
- Georgia Tech JR OF Jarrett Didrick – plus arm, plus range
- Georgia Tech JR OF Roddy Jones – plus speed
- Maryland JR OF Korey Wacker – plus speed
- Central Missouri SR OF Jon Wegener – plus arm
- Santa Ana JC FR OF Dylan Jones – plus speed
- Lower Columbia Basin JC SO OF Ben McQuown – plus speed
- Nebraska JR OF Khiry Cooper – plus speed
- Georgia Southern SR OF Shawn Payne – plus speed
- Marist SR OF Mike Gallic – plus speed
- Georgia JR OF Johnathan Taylor – plus speed, good track record of plate discipline (more importantly: get well soon!)
2011 MLB Draft: Three Potentially Undervalued College Pitchers
I really enjoyed researching and writing the college outfield categories piece from Wednesday and appreciate all of the positive feedback. Can’t quite put my finger on why, but I’ve always been drawn to non-starting players, like utility infielders and fourth outfielders and I find it really interesting to see where they come from. Maybe it is a stretch to say, but I like the idea that one of those players could be the next Dave Sappelt, a personal favorite mid-round outfield target back in 2008 who is now on the cusp of the big leagues. I wish the same luck to a few highly regarded 2010 favorites Trent Mummey (4th round), Rico Noel (5th), Gauntlett Eldemire (6th), as well as some deeper sleepers that probably fit more into Wednesday’s no top 25 college outfield prospect parameters like Robert Maddox (18th), Dan Grovatt (11th), and the inexplicably underrated Tyler Holt (10th).
In a similar vein, I thought we’d take a closer look at three potentially undervalued 2011 draft righthanded pitching prospects today. I hate calling anybody a sleeper because, quite honestly, I have no idea what the term even means anymore. I’ve always felt that 9 out of 10 “sleepers” are downright insulting to even a casual draft fan’s intelligence. Maybe I’m just hyper-sensitive, who knows? Anyway, here are some potentially undervalued prospects who are definitely not “sleepers” in any way, shape, or form…
Kansas JR RHP Colton Murray
Tennessee JR RHP Matt Ramsey
It is entirely possible that both Murray and Ramsey were built in some kind of top secret lab designed with the intent of creating prototype amateur relief prospects. Mid-90s fastball? Murray’s peaks at an impressive 95 (sits 91-93), but plays up because of excellent movement. both of the sinking and cutting variety. Ramsey’s fastball doesn’t have quite the same movement, but clocks in with a peak of 96 (low-90s sitting). Plus breaking ball? Ramsey has a raw low-80s curveball that flashes plus while Murray already throws a consistently excellent low- to mid-80s slider. Busy mechanics with lots of moving parts and a listed height at or below 6’0″? Double check for both players, though I have heard Ramsey, who does double duty as a catcher for the Volunteers, has cleaned up his throwing motion a great deal since last summer.
Murray is the better prospect at this point because of his better fastball, breaking ball, and the existence of a usable (but no better at this point) third pitch, a changeup. He looks like a potential early round (maybe somewhere between 5 and 10?) prospect that could eventually pitch at the back end of ballgames at the next level. If a pro team thinks they can unlock a few extra ticks on the fastball by cleaning up his windup, the possibility of closing someday can’t be ruled out.
Two random points that I couldn’t figure out how to wedge in the above paragraphs, so I will just blurt them out here. First, I’ve heard tons of good things about Murray’s work ethic. That may or may not mean anything over the long haul, but all of the high makeup praise I’ve heard comes back to the way Murray has worked his tail off to improve his breaking pitch over the years. I try my best to stay away from nebulous terms like “makeup” that can mean just about anything on any given day, but even I can admit it pretty cool to see a positive tangible result come out of this supposed “great makeup leading to sweeping slurve-like curve turning into tight slider” cause and effect. Second, on Ramsey, I just wanted wanted to point out that Perfect Game compared his upside as a prep catcher to the good version of Russell Martin. No real commentary on that particular comp, other than to say I love reading old reports on prospects (and PG is right up there with the very best at churning them out) and seeing the different developmental paths prospects have taken over the years. I guess if you want to apply it to Ramsey’s current prospect stock, then you could spin it as a positive check in the “athleticism” ledger on his scouting report.
Mississippi State JR RHP Devin Jones
Jones is the only current college starter of the three. He strikes me as a borderline starting candidate in pro ball at this point. Like many young pitchers, it’ll be the development of an effective changeup that makes or breaks him as a high round prospect or not. I really like his present mix (low-90s four-seam, upper-80s two-seam with great sink, and a mid- to upper-80s slider with plus upside) and he has the frame pro teams like to see in a starter (6’3″, 180). I’m a bit biased in my appreciation for Jones, as I’ve always liked the classically built sinker/slider specialists. I like it even more when these classic sinker/slider guys go all out and embrace who they are, so, if I may, a quick suggestion for Jones: ditch whatever version of the change you are currently working on and go with a splitter instead. Pretty sure I can trace back my love of the sinker/slider/splitter righthander to Ryan Dempster, a long-time personal favorite. Mississippi JR RHP David Goforth is more similar in stuff to Murray and Ramsey (big fastball, SL that flashes plus), but I’ve always connected him with Jones because both players seem like they have the stuff to dominate college hitters, yet consistently put up mediocre numbers. Both are currently winning the “scouting over stats” debate that infuses itself into all of my traditionally statistically charged player rankings, but big junior years would go a long way towards making me confident in endorsing them as potential big league assets.
2011 MLB Draft: The Other Cole’s
Gerrit Cole isn’t the only Cole expected to get drafted this June. Probably goes without saying that Gerrit is the most promising Cole, but there are three other collegiate Cole’s with mid-round, middle relief upside worth mentioning.
Texas SR RHP Cole Green is the best current pitcher of our Cole trio. His fastball sits consistently between 88-91 FB and he can muscle it up to 92-93 on the rarest of occasions. His biggest strengths are his pinpoint fastball command, plus control, and much improved above-average upper-70s slider that flashes plus. Throw in the fact he is a short righthanded pitcher and it sure sounds like Green will be typecast as a potential relief candidate, right? Short righties who pound the strike zone with that sinker/slider combo always have a chance to fill a bullpen niche in the pros. Then again, Green’s success as a college starter and the improvement of his changeup could help him work as a pro starter. Whether a pro team considers him a potential fifth starter or, more likely, a middle reliever, it is still highly unlikely he’ll approach his 2010 draft status (4th round to Detroit). Lastly, and take this for what it’s worth, every scouting report on Green mentions his reputation as a groundball pitcher, but the data I’ve compiled doesn’t fit that description at all. Wonder what the guys at College Splits would say to that?
BYU SO RHP Taylor Cole has the biggest fastball of the group (94-95 peak) and was the most heavily recruited out of high school. Lost development time has left him with not little besides that big fastball, but there is some promise with both his slider and changeup. A team will have to be really patient with Cole, but his upside, relatively fresh arm, and the unique path he’s taken since graduating from high school all help him stand out amongst his mid-round contemporaries. I know Taylor is a personal favorite of many followers of the draft, so don’t be shocked if his name starts getting bandied about as a high rising helium guy heading into June.
Notre Dame SR RHP Cole Johnson has a fastball that sits 88-92 FB and a good SL. Average fastball (maybe a tick above) and a good secondary pitch combined with a history of strong performance at a well known college program is often a pretty nice recipe for looks as a reliever on draft day. Johnson has the first two things down, but is still working on that pesky bit about having a history of strong performance. Underwhelming college stats to date (2010: 5.46 K/9 – 3.16 BB/9 – 4.69 FIP – 31.1 IP) have kept his stock down, but his solid start in 2011 could get teams back on the bandwagon.
Gerrit Cole: 2011 MLB Draft First Overall Pick?
I apologize for starting the week with a math problem, but…
Really busy baseball watching weekend +
Blue Screen of Death seconds before I hit post +
stupidly trying to type a post directly on site and not in Word doc +
Wordpress autosave feature not quite living up to my misguided hopes =
A really quick uncut summation of what I’ve seen out of Anthony Rendon’s biggest competitor for the draft’s number one spot, UCLA JR RHP Gerrit Cole. This is a rare case where I can combine all sorts of fun factors (video, three separate years of live personal “scouting,” and, as always, all of the written and spoken information from people way smarter than I am about this stuff that I could possibly digest) into formulating an opinion on a prospect. Here’s what I’ve got…
UCLA JR RHP Gerrit Cole (2011): 4-seam: really easy 92-96 four-seam FB, 97-99 FB peak; 98 on last pitch of opening day complete game; told by scout that he is unique in that he appears to hit 98 “whenever he wants” with FB; between velocity, movement, and improved command, the FB is a legit plus-plus pitch; speaking of command…relatively poor FB command through middle of sophomore season, but the improvement in this area has been nothing short of remarkable; holds velocity exceptionally well; 2-seam: 92-94 two-seam FB with above-average sink; Cutter: not personally 100% sold on the difference between the two-seam and the cutter (remember: I’m no professional, just a guy with a hobby), but enough smart people are labeling the pitch as a cut fastball at 87-91; Slider: plus 81-87 SL (more commonly and more effectively thrown harder at 86-88); was clocked harder still (consistently 87-89) on SL this past summer; Change: personal favorite offering is his excellent sinking extra firm 83-87 (!) CU with plus upside; pitch seems to get better with every outing;
By now regular readers know that I love forcing comps where they don’t necessarily belong. In the unlikely scenario I am ever forced to give a comp for Gerrit Cole or be forced to watch Miguel Cairo swing at the first pitch in what seemed like every single at bat during his Phillies tenure on loop, I’d throw this one out there as a potential ceiling: potential future teammate Felix Hernandez. Both have/had explosive fastballs, plus upside with unusually hard slider and changeup, similar enough builds (this one might be a stretch…), early questions about command and delivery…obviously this isn’t a perfect comp, but it is a rough outline of what kind of package Cole will bring to whatever pro team is lucky enough to draft him.
The Baseball Draft Report 