2013 MLB Draft: Top 100 College Catching Prospects

28 May 2013 10:45 AM / 18 Comments on 2013 MLB Draft: Top 100 College Catching Prospects

A few quick notes before we get this thing kicked off. If you commented or emailed in the past few days, I’ll have a response by this evening. Here we go…

1. Stats are park/schedule adjusted from College Splits. I had to use a different cutoff for each list, but the catchers numbers should all be correct as of last Monday (5/20/13). I dug around for stats for all junior college and non-Division I players; those numbers are obviously as is, i.e. not park/schedule adjusted.

2. If your favorite player is missing, then chances are a lot higher it was a copy/paste fail and not my complete and utter lack of baseball knowledge. I mean, sure, it could still be the latter, but if there’s somebody obvious that I’ve ignored, please give a gentle reminder in the comments or via email (robozga at gmail dot com). It’s also possible I mentally shifted a guy’s position in my head, so don’t rule out your player suddenly popping up on another position list.

3. Players designated as FAVORITEs were given that tag prior to the season, or, in some cases, upon enrolling in college. In other words, just because a guy is a FAVORITE doesn’t mean he’s automatically guaranteed a high placement on the list. I’m stubborn about which players I like, true, but I’m also quite cognizant of the fact prospect status is fluid.

4. Final opinions are all mine, but information has been culled from a variety of sources. Like anybody likely reading this site, I’m an avid follower of all things Baseball America and Perfect Game. Seriously, if you are into the draft/prospects at all, I highly recommend getting subscriptions to both sites. I also have a small but trustworthy network of friends in the game I occasionally call upon for information on prospects, especially those off the beaten path. Consider the little scouting notes section on each player a synthesis on what I’ve read, heard, and seen about each player. I’m in no way an expert and literally nothing I write, positively or negatively, influences what pro teams actually do on draft day. I’m just a baseball loving guy who has taken a hobby way, way, way too far.

5. I’m happy to answer any and all questions I can over email or in the comments. Also, for the sake of my already waning sanity, I didn’t include everything I had on every player — you’ll see some blank spots sprinkled throughout — so please don’t hesitate to ask if there’s something about a specific guy you want answered.

Finally, this is just the college catching group. High school catchers will get their time in the sun soon.

***

I don’t think it is all that controversial to say that there’s a chance we won’t have a single average or better long-term big league starting catcher from this year’s college class. This is actually a very freeing possibility. Instead of picking apart the top guys like we so often do, we can instead focus our collective energy on finding good fits. You have projects with upside, high-floor players on the precipice of long careers as big league backups or third catcher insurance at AAA, and multi-position utility guys capable of helping a creative team use a bench spot. There is also the typical blend of prospects who fall into specific prospect archetypes: all glove/little bat, big bat/iffy glove, well-rounded but no plus tool, plus athleticism but still relatively new to catching, and, an old favorite, huge arm strength/tantalizing raw power but little else to offer.

You’ll notice in going through the list that I value athleticism a great deal when evaluating catching prospects. Defense is also prioritized, though I take the minority view that catchers can be made as easily as they are born. Good pro coaching can iron out a lot of the supposed “innate skills” that a college catcher may struggle with, provided the catcher has the requisite athleticism and makeup to make the adjustments. With a good athlete and willing student, things like receiving the ball, the glove to hand transfer, release, and all things footwork can be significantly cleaned up in the low-minors. Athleticism, approach, and all-around defensive acumen are probably my top three qualifications for the catching spot. With that in mind, here’s a great big ranking…

C

1. Georgia Tech JR C Zane Evans: uses whole field; solid defensive tools; strong arm; gap power at present, but more there; above-average raw power; late inning potential as reliever as fallback; 2012: 88-93 FB; flashes plus SL; good 76-80 CB; 81-83 CU with promise; 2013: 93-95 FB, 97 peak; plus mid-80s SL; 6-2, 215 pounds

2011: .279/.337/.412 – 21 BB/50 K – 226 AB
2012: .299/.369/.438 – 25 BB/42 K – 1/1 SB – 224 AB
2013: .396/.460/.668 – 29 BB/31 K – 0/0 SB – 217 AB

2012: 8.84 K/9 | 1.96 BB/9 | 4.02 FIP | 36.2 IP
2013: 6.87 K/9 | 5.40 BB/9 | 3.55 FIP | 18.1 IP

2. Mississippi JR C Stuart Turner: very good defender, plus upside; excellent athlete; strong arm; average at best speed, but smart on bases; love his power upside, at least average for me but others aren’t sold; crazy quick transfer and release, impressive agility behind plate; LSU-Eunice transfer; FAVORITE; 6-2, 220 pounds

2013: .412/.479/.583 – 26 BB/31 K – 2/5 SB – 199 AB

3. North Carolina JR C Brian Holberton: picture perfect swing mechanics; great athlete; has also seen time at 2B and OF; wears out the gaps; love his approach to hitting; may not be a catcher forever, may not be a catcher long-term, but has shown enough ability behind plate to warrant a shot in pro ball; FAVORITE; 5-11, 190 pounds

2011: .261/.356/.386 – 14 BB/14 K – 88 AB
2012: .280/.394/.373 – 21 BB/13 K – 1/1 SB – 118 AB
2013: .330/.455/.551 – 39 BB/22 K – 7/13 SB – 185 AB

4. California JR C Andrew Knapp: big upside with bat; above-average defender; above-average arm; love his approach; smart hitter, makes adjustments well; good power; some don’t like his defense like I do; uses whole field well; average speed; defense will come just needs experience; good athlete; 2013: defense has been disappointing, but I stubbornly believe he can at least hold his own; would rank in similar range (5-8) on college first base prospect list; FAVORITE; 6-1, 200 pounds

2011: .227/.307/.318 – 7 BB/22 K – 66 AB
2012: .270/.354/.422 – 24 BB/33 K – 4/7 SB – 211 AB
2013: .406/.481/.634 – 26 BB/33 K – 4/6 SB – 202 AB

5. Pittsburgh SO C Elvin Soto: good defender; quick hands; above-average arm strength; average at best hit tool; fits the well-rounded across the board mold nicely; 6-0, 200 pounds

2012: .236/.302/.384 – 14 BB/51 K – 1/2 SB – 216 AB
2013: .320/.415/.524 – 33 BB/34 K – 2/2 SB – 206 AB

6. Louisiana State JR C Ty Ross: big raw power, but has never hit much at all; impressive arm; much improved defender; well above-average glove now; defense could carry him to big leagues while development of bat remains difference between starter and backup; FAVORITE; 6-3, 210 pounds

2011: .223/.295/.277 – 13 BB/37 K – 148 AB
2012: .303/.369/.395 – 23 BB/22 K – 2/2 SB – 185 AB
2013: .230/.309/.303 – 19 BB/22 K – 1/2 SB – 165 AB

7. Dartmouth JR C/3B Jeff Keller: plus athlete; great approach, shows controlled aggression as a hitter; above-average present power; not a long-term catcher for many, but I think he’s skilled enough and more than athletic enough to give it a go; failing that, his positional versatility should keep him getting work; FAVORITE; 5-11, 180 pounds

2011: .310/.385/.524 – 9 BB/16 K – 84 AB
2012: .352/.436/.541 – 13 BB/18 K – 3/4 SB – 122 AB
2013: .376/.456/.730 – 19 BB/24 K – 7/7 SB – 141 AB

8. New Mexico SR C Mitchell Garver: some of the best bat speed of any college catcher; above-average pop; good approach; average or better hit tool; average arm, currently plays down to slow throwing motion and choppy footwork; average at best overall defender; good athlete; might be able to handle OF; 6-1, 200 pounds

2011: .274/.362/.370 – 30 BB/26 K – 230 AB
2012: .332/.397/.541 – 25 BB/28 K – 6/9 SB – 268 AB
2013: .357/.434/.534 – 27 BB/39 K – 10/13 SB – 221 AB

9. Vanderbilt JR C Spencer Navin: excellent defender; plus arm; quick release; great footwork; good athlete; should hit enough to be quality backup; 6-1, 200 pounds

2012: .309/.441/.420 – 32 BB/41 K – 10/16 SB – 188 AB
2013: .324/.457/.441 – 21 BB/33 K – 7/8 SB – 145 AB

10. Oregon State JR C/2B Jake Rodriguez: strong hit tool; good approach; solid defensive tools; definite utility future; good speed; plus arm; converted infielder; can also play some OF; gap power; has improved behind plate a great deal; strange comp, but he reminds me of Chace Numata; 5-9, 200 pounds

2011: .333/.400/.467 – 5 BB/8 K – 75 AB
2012: .295/.379/.375 – 13 BB/33 K – 4/5 SB – 176 AB
2013: .306/.420/.401 – 30 BB/27 K – 2/3 SB – 147 AB

11. Kirkwood CC SO C/3B Dairo Gonzalez: strong arm; interesting bat; average speed; 6-2, 200 pounds

2013: .413/.522/.699 – 30 BB/18 K – 4/6 SB – 143 AB

12. Cal State Fullerton JR C/1B Chad Wallach: good power upside; plus arm strength, but still figuring out how to use it behind plate; bat has a ways to go, but I’m a believer; relatively new to catching, but upside defensively is evident; slow; 6-3, 225 pounds

2012: .221/.295/.279 – 6 BB/11 K – 1/1 SB – 68 AB
2013: .328/.414/.482 – 13 BB/15 K – 1/3 SB – 137 AB

13. The Citadel JR C Joe Jackson: underrated offensive player; wish he hit better on Cape; competition a question, but has produced for three years; 6-1, 200 pounds

2011: .337/.403/.414 – 20 BB/19 K – 169 AB
2012: .297/.364/.415 – 22 BB/36 K – 4/4 SB – 229 AB
2013: .423/.517/.712 – 37 BB/27 K – 3/8 SB – 215 AB

14. Texas-Arlington JR C Greg McCall: above-average arm; solid defender; strong hit tool; like his measured approach to hitting; 6-1, 215 pounds

2011: .198/.317/.279 – 14 BB/28 K – 86 AB
2012: .200/.298/.263 – 22 BB/45 K – 0/0 SB – 175 AB
2013: .293/.431/.504 – 27 BB/23 K – 3/3 SB – 123 AB

15. Florida State rJR C Stephen McGee: good glove; average arm; consistently underrated bat; pros may not agree come draft day, but he’s my kind of hitter; 6-3, 220 pounds

2012: .230/.435/.275 – 65 BB/30 K – 2/6 SB – 204 AB
2013: .310/.475/.552 – 49 BB/29 K – 4/4 SB – 174 AB

16. Auburn JR C Blake Austin: good power upside; plus arm; good defender; good looking swing; 5-11, 215 pounds

2012: .296/.369/.448 – 9 BB/16 K – 125 AB – 3/3 SB
2013: .318/.358/.457 – 9 BB/24 K – 0/0 SB – 173 AB

17. New Mexico JC FR C Marcus Greene: physically strong; strong arm; improved defender; really good athlete; above-average speed; intriguing bat; FAVORITE; 5-11, 200 pounds

2013: .384/.465/.727 – 21 BB/32 K – 16/21 SB – 172 AB

18. Weatherford JC SO C/1B Hunter Lockwood: strong hit tool; might not stick at catcher; I like his defense enough; good arm; good speed; defense improving; plus power upside; might be able to stick in OF; still rough behind the plate; Oklahoma transfer; like the Andrew Knapp of the junior college ranks

2012: .227/.283/.459 – 14 BB/63 K – 6/10 SB – 185 AB
2013: .333/.423/.559 – 21 BB/32 K – 6/8 SB – 177 AB

19. Louisville JR C/1B Jeff Gardner: good power; can also play OF; 6-2, 220 pounds

2012: .293/.393/.407 – 15 BB/32 K – 2/5 SB – 167 AB
2013: .356/.430/.674 – 14 BB/16 K – 1/3 SB – 132 AB

20. Rutgers SR C Jeff Melillo: good approach; good defender; not much projection left, but value found in his steadying influence on a staff and mature approach to hitting; 6-2, 200 pounds

2012: .322/.435/.443 – 30 BB/31 K – 0/1 SB – 183 AB
2013: .325/.415/.500 – 29 BB/32 K – 3/3 SB – 194 AB

21. Cal State Bakersfield JR C/1B Cael Brockmeyer: good arm strength; average or better power upside; good approach to hitting; better than expected defensive tools for a big man; 6-5, 220 pounds

2011: .244/.299/.382 – 8 BB/34 K – 123 AB
2012: .285/.380/.460 – 22 BB/36 K – 0/0 SB – 200 AB
2013: .338/.414/.484 – 20 BB/37 K – 6/6 SB – 213 AB

22. UC Riverside SR C Clay Prestridge: versatile defender; good behind plate; excellent approach; good speed; 5-9, 180 pounds

2012: .269/.419/.327 – 37 BB/33 K – 9/10 SB – 171 AB
2013: .357/.458/.432 – 24 BB/32 K – 15/18 SB – 185 AB

23. Air Force SR C Garrett Custons: great athlete; good speed; plus-plus arm; 5-11, 200 pounds

2011: .282/.371/.469 – 19 BB/42 K – 209 AB
2012: .269/.359/.421 – 17 BB/34 K – 7/12 SB – 171 AB
2013: .332/.424/.473 – 19 BB/32 K – 14/19 SB – 205 AB

24. Duke SR C Jeff Kremer: great approach; steady glove; 5-11, 210 pounds

2011: .357/.472/.452 – 41 BB/27 K – 199 AB
2012: .310/.427/.386 – 25 BB/24 K – 1/2 SB – 171 AB
2013: .359/.466/.427 – 33 BB/16 K – 4/9 SB – 206 AB

25. Texas JR C Jacob Felts: average arm; average power upside; solid defensively, I like him here even more than most; been told he has a clear “backup catcher hit tool”; high marks for defensive skills that go unnoticed by many; like that he knows his strengths and weaknesses as a hitter; 6-0, 200 pounds

2011: .242/.321/.274 – 15 BB/33 K – 186 AB
2012: .324/.381/.372 – 11 BB/20 K – 2/4 SB – 188 AB
2013: .306/.378/.361 – 10 BB/20 K – 3/4 SB – 147 AB

26. North Carolina JR C Matt Roberts: well above-average defender with plus upside; intriguing raw power; tools remain, but hasn’t put it together at college level at all; 6-1, 200 pounds

2012: .111/.219/.148 – 3 BB/6 K – 0/0 SB – 27 AB
2013: .190/.265/.340 – 9 BB/23 K – 2/2 SB – 100 AB

27. Harford CC SO C Norm Donkin: good athlete; good speed; good arm; good power; could also play OF or 3B; 6-3, 220 pounds

2013: .379/.446/.538 – 20 BB/10 K – 30/31 SB – 182 AB

28. Alabama JR C/1B Wade Wass: strong arm; good defender, but others not sold; quick bat; power upside; too many swings and misses; injuries ruined his 2013 season; 6-0, 210 pounds

29. Fresno State SR C Austin Wynns: excellent defender; really good athlete; 6-2, 200 pounds

2011: .337/.426/.423 – 24 BB/22 K – 175 AB
2012: .289/.361/.407 – 20 BB/24 K – 1/1 SB – 194 AB
2013: .286/.370/.429 – 20 BB/22 K – 1/1 SB – 161 AB

30. Shippensburg SR C Tyler Shover: plus defender; plus arm; good approach; interesting raw power; 6-2, 185 pounds

2013: .357/.436/.491 – 24 BB/13 K – 5/8 SB – 171 AB

31. Fairfield JR C Ryan Plourde: average glove; intriguing bat; 6-0, 200 pounds

2012: .323/.425/.495 – 30 BB/35 K – 2/3 SB – 186 AB
2013: .360/.460/.503 – 30 BB/23 K – 14/15 SB – 175 AB

32. UC Irvine rSR C Ronnie Shaeffer: average arm; above-average defender; intriguing bat that needs polish; 6-2, 215 pounds

2011: .274/.326/.317 – 15 BB/33 K – 208 AB
2013: .322/.355/.420 – 10 BB/14 K – 1/4 SB – 205 AB

33. Baylor SR C Nathan Orf: 5-9, 170 pounds

2012: .303/.456/.389 – 35 BB/31 K – 18/21 SB – 234 AB
2013: .400/.490/.493 – 24 BB/23 K – 4/14 SB – 205 AB

34. Tennessee JR C Ethan Bennett: 6-0, 215 pounds

2011: .254/.354/.476 – 17 BB/24 K – 126 AB
2012: .179/.290/.330 – 10 BB/30 K – 112 AB – 2/2 SB
2013: .321/.455/.605 – 13 BB/17 K – 5/6 SB – 81 AB

35. San Diego SR C Dillon Haupt: plus arm strength; 6-5, 225 pounds

2012: .274/.384/.441 – 23 BB/32 K – 3/4 SB – 179 AB
2013: .313/.399/.594 – 19 BB/52 K – 2/2 SB – 192 AB

36. North Florida JR C/1B Ryan Roberson: 5-9, 215 pounds

2012: .301/.359/.451 – 11 BB/14 K – 1/1 SB – 153 AB
2013: .376/.447/.547 – 21 BB/11 K – 0/1 SB – 170 AB

37. Manhattan rSR C Ramon Ortega: plus defensive tools; 6-0, 200 pounds

2011: .356/.422/.469 – 18 BB/30 K – 160 AB
2012: .275/.377/.436 – 31 BB/27 K – 2/2 SB – 204 AB
2013: .356/.443/.550 – 26 BB/29 K – 2/2 SB – 180 AB

38. Louisville JR C Kyle Gibson: plus athlete; above-average speed; strong arm; raw defender, but getting there – considered at least average now; 5-9, 200 pounds

2011: .227/.297/.273 – 5 BB/8 K – 66 AB
2012: .285/.371/.343 – 10 BB/16 K – 3/4 SB – 137 AB
2013: .349/.388/.407 – 6 BB/8 K – 2/2 SB – 86 AB

39. Missouri JR C Dylan Kelly: plus defender; 5-11, 200 pounds

2013: .333/.400/.409 – 15 BB/21 K – 0/1 SB – 171 AB

40. Seattle rJR C/OF Ryan Somers: 6-0, 200 pounds

2012: .305/.396/.381 – 15 BB/21 K – 2/5 SB – 118 AB
2013: .321/.436/.442 – 38 BB/35 K – 6/8 SB – 190 AB

41. Arizona State SR C Max Rossiter: good defender; strong arm; 5-11, 185 pounds

2012: .319/.364/.442 – 9 BB/13 K – 0/0 SB – 138 AB
2013: .307/.404/.399 – 22 BB/21 K – 2/2 SB – 163 AB

42. Southern California JR C Jake Hernandez: plus defensive tools; good power upside; definite untapped upside here, but another guy like Felts and Roberts who hasn’t had the success many expected at the college level; 6-2, 200 pounds

2011: .233/.242/.267 – 1 BB/9 K – 60 AB
2012: .308/.360/.352 – 5 BB/10 K – 2/3 SB – 91 AB
2013: .255/.289/.340 – 5 BB/25 K – 1/1 SB – 106 AB

43. Huntington JR C/1B Joseph Odom: big power; strong arm; not a natural catcher, but much improved behind plate; 6-3, 200 pounds

2013: .369/.468/.706 – 31 BB/28 K – 6/8 SB – 160 AB

44. Dallas Baptist SR C/1B Duncan McAlpine: good approach; good defender; average but accurate arm; some power upside; 5-10, 215 pounds

2011: .224/.322/.362 – 25 BB/43 K – 174 AB
2012: .224/.339/.376 – 36 BB/51 K – 1/4 SB – 210 AB
2013: .305/.416/.615 – 33 BB/43 K – 3/3 SB – 200 AB

45. Washington State JR C/OF Collin Slaybaugh: good raw power; good speed; average defender; good athlete; plus arm; 6-1, 185 pounds

2011: .288/.382/.375 – 15 BB/19 K – 104 AB
2012: .280/.353/.352 – 13 BB/23 K – 6/7 SB – 125 AB
2013: .299/.365/.339 – 11 BB/34 K – 10/12 SB – 174 AB

46. Lee SR C Danny Canela: NC State transfer; not sure he’s strong enough behind plate to be a consistent viable option professionally – if I’m wrong, that’s great news for Canela’s prospect stock; at third, he’s a good enough defender who plays the position as you’d expect a part-time catcher would (i.e. often steady, never spectacular); interesting power potential; quick bat; great arm is biggest defensive asset; 5-10, 235 pounds

2011: .267/.349/.443 – 17 BB/26 K – 131 AB
2012: .339/.448/.522 – 38 BB/30 K – 0/0 SB – 180 AB
2013: .332/.443/.495 – 38 BB/17 K – 0/0 SB – 202 AB

47. Louisiana-Lafayette rSO C Mike Strentz: great athlete; quick bat; above-average arm; big raw power; strong; TJ survivor; 6-1, 200 pounds

2011: .237/.331/.374 – 17 BB/42 K – 139 AB
2012: .167/.235/.200 – 2 BB/14 K – 30 AB – 0/0 SB
2013: .358/.462/.648 – 16 BB/40 K – 5/7 SB – 176 AB

48. Saint Louis SR C/3B Grant Nelson: good athlete; strong arm; good defensive tools; average or better power upside; 6-2, 220 pounds

2012: .329/.419/.443 – 28 BB/48 K – 2/2 SB – 210 AB
2013: .384/.474/.535 – 33 BB/51 K – 3/5 SB – 198 AB

49. Virginia Tech rJR C Chad Morgan: big power potential; plus arm; great defender; bat is a question mark; kept waiting for him to make a leap, but never happened; 5-11, 185 pounds

2011: .237/.333/.360 – 16 BB/34 K – 139 AB
2012: .184/.263/.255 – 9 BB/18 K – 0/1 SB – 98 AB
2013: .276/.333/.379 – 11 BB/23 K – 3/5 SB – 145 AB

50. Chipola JC FR C Ian Rice: great approach; plus raw power; solid defender

2013: .323/.437/.458 – 18 BB/21 K – 4/5 SB – 96 AB

51. San Francisco JR C Zachary Turner: 6-4, 200 pounds

2013: .391/.432/.604 – 17 BB/41 K – 1/2 SB – 202 AB

52. Duke JR C Mike Rosenfeld: 5-10, 185 pounds

2012: .329/.403/.476 – 16 BB/48 K – 170 AB – 7/8 SB
2013: .393/.465/.557 – 8 BB/9 K – 2/3 SB – 61 AB

53. San Bernardino Valley JC SO C/RHP Ryan Miller: above-average to plus speed; above-average to plus arm; quick release; strong; 95 peak; would love to see him tried both ways next year at D-1 level; FAVORITE; 6-3, 215 pounds

2013: .345/.446/.475 – 20 BB/28 K – 11/12 SB – 139 AB

54. Southern Mississippi SR C Chase Fowler: very reliable defender; strong arm; 6-1, 180 pounds

2012: .224/.305/.276 – 10 BB/23 K – 2/2 SB – 134 AB
2013: .339/.407/.443 – 16 BB/16 K – 4/6 SB – 174 AB

55. Sam Houston State JR C Anthony Azar: 5-11, 185 pounds

2012: .354/.402/.497 – 14 BB/33 K – 1/1 SB – 175 AB
2013: .335/.401/.526 – 17 BB/24 K – 4/4 SB – 194 AB

56. San Diego State SR C Jake Romanski: really good defender; average arm; 5-10, 180 pounds

2012: .282/.329/.345 – 8 BB/23 K – 2/2 SB – 142 AB
2013: .342/.435/.403 – 28 BB/17 K – 6/9 SB – 196 AB

57. Texas State SR C Andrew Stumph: big raw power; very raw defensively; 6-0, 215 pounds

2011: .294/.336/.403 – 15 BB/33 K – 238 AB
2012: .236/.313/.339 – 19 BB/30 K – 0/0 SB – 174 AB
2013: .313/.396/.417 – 23 BB/15 K – 2/2 SB – 163 AB

58. Rice SR C Geoff Perrott: plus arm; good defender; 6-2, 200 pounds

2013: .316/.412/.392 – 14 BB/20 K – 2/3 SB – 158 AB

59. Georgia SR C/OF Brett DeLoach: good speed; has tools to catch, but arm might not be up for it health-wise; some power upside; 6-0, 200 pounds

2011: .276/.339/.447 – 12 BB/34 K – 152 AB
2012: .291/.388/.389 – 22 BB/20 K – 6/6 SB – 175 AB
2013: .290/.409/.426 – 32 BB/17 K – 6/9 SB – 176 AB

60. Mt. Olive SR C Geno Escalante: once a highly sought after high school prospect who has since bounced around; I don’t have much in the way of updated information on him outside of the numbers (below), but here’s what I wrote back when he was a prep catcher: “defense-first catcher, with a bat that needs plenty of polish to even be considered average; name makes it sound like he should be an East Coast prospect, but he’s a California kid who is committed to attend Cal State Fullerton if he doesn’t get paid; lesser version of Steve Baron in my mind”; 5-11, 215 pounds

2012: .436/.500/.662 – 21 BB/26 K – 4/8 SB – 225 AB
2013: .353/.453/.625 – 19 BB/32 K – 10/12 SB – 184 AB

61. Loyola Marymount SR C Colton Plaia: above-average defender; average arm, plays up thanks to footwork and accuracy; average power; 6-3, 225 pounds

2012: .332/.420/.466 – 23 BB/36 K – 1/5 SB – 193 AB
2013: .332/.394/.466 – 16 BB/34 K – 4/5 SB – 193 AB

62. Missouri State SR C Luke Voit: above-average power upside; good athlete; strong arm; defense remains the big question; 6-3, 230 pounds

2011: .296/.378/.448 – 23 BB/26 K – 203 AB
2012: .310/.387/.456 – 27 BB/43 K – 9/11 SB – 248 AB
2013: .317/.408/.422 – 25 BB/21 K – 8/10 SB – 199 AB

63. Purdue JR C/1B Sean McHugh: 5-11, 200 pounds

2013: .343/.396/.500 – 15 BB/21 K – 5/5 SB – 198 AB

64. Towson SR C Andrew Parker: 6-0, 220 pounds

2011: .269/.395/.433 – 20 BB/35 K – 171 AB
2012: .181/.305/.316 – 27 BB/50 K – 2/4 SB – 177 AB
2013: .261/.442/.510 – 35 BB/39 K – 1/6 SB – 153 AB

65. Siena SR C Larry Balkwill: 6-4, 210 pounds

2012: .299/.397/.473 – 22 BB/26 K – 0/0 SB – 167 AB
2013: .296/.404/.522 – 26 BB/41 K – 0/1 SB – 186 AB

66. North Carolina Greensboro rSR C/1B Trevor Edwards: 6-2, 210 pounds

2011: .296/.419/.531 – 25 BB/45 K – 179 AB
2012: .278/.376/.567 – 23 BB/35 K – 0/0 SB – 187 AB
2013: .296/.370/.546 – 23 BB/30 K – 1/1 SB – 216 AB

67. Elon SR C/RHP Alex Swim: good defender; plus arm; needs to put on weight; above-average speed; can play some OF; good bat control; 93-96 FB; wild; 6-0, 180 pounds

2011: .275/.312/.352 – 12 BB/11 K – 236 AB
2012: .353/.396/.444 – 20 BB/13 K – 7/10 SB – 241 AB
2013: .268/.323/.364 – 18 BB/14 K – 14/17 SB – 228 AB

68. Angelina JC C Matt Sinclair: big raw power; good enough defensive tools, but raw; needs some good coaching, swing revamped; 6-3, 225 pounds

2013: .343/.422/.400 – 9 BB/12 K – 2 SB – 70 AB

69. Riverside CC rFR C David Schuknecht: good power upside; good speed; strong arm; raw defender, but tools are there; missed 2012 season (labrum); Arizona transfer

2013: .248/.378/.444 – 16 BB/39 K – 3/7 SB – 117 AB

70. Kansas State rJR C Blair DeBord: 6-0, 195 pounds

2012: .251/.328/.335 – 16 BB/23 K – 0/0 SB – 167 AB
2013: .333/.421/.405 – 23 BB/19 K – 5/5 SB – 168 AB

71. San Jacinto JC SO C Braden Mattson: plus defensive tools; plus arm; strong; good athlete; legit plus speed; may not hit a ton; above-average power upside; questionable approach; I like his defense better than others; incredibly enticing tools package, but waiting on tools turning into skills offensively; TCU transfer; FAVORITE; 6-3, 200 pounds

2013: .268/.314/.390 – 9 BB/32 K – 7/7 SB – 164 AB

72. St. John’s JR C/1B Frank Schwindel: average defender at best; iffy arm; power upside; 6-1, 200 pounds

2011: .234/.268/.312 – 3 BB/10 K – 77 AB
2012: .322/.350/.416 – 6 BB/13 K – 0/0 SB – 202 AB
2013: .348/.368/.502 – 5 BB/17 K – 1/1 SB – 227 AB

73. Kansas JR C/SS/2B Kai’ana Eldredge: average speed; above-average arm; great athlete; gap power; raw behind plate, but agile enough to figure it out; plus arm; 6-0, 200 pounds

2011: .255/.331/.376 – 15 BB/45 K – 157 AB
2012: .178/.245/.199 – 11 BB/37 K – 3/7 SB – 146 AB
2013: .226/.333/.267 – 22 BB/29 K – 4/6 SB – 146 AB

74. Mississippi State SR C Mitch Slauter: really good defender, fun to watch; 6-1, 210 pounds

2012: .232/.359/.327 – 35 BB/44 K – 0/2 SB – 220 AB
2013: .247/.383/.355 – 15 BB/26 K – 2/2 SB – 93 AB

75. Mississippi JR C Will Allen: strong defensive tools; skilled hitting it all over the field, but not a ton of pull-side power; 6-3, 220 pounds

2011: .227/.265/.402 – 5 BB/29 K – 97 AB
2012: .307/.338/.396 – 7 BB/30 K – 2/3 SB – 202 AB
2013: .262/.299/.351 – 10 BB/32 K – 2/2 SB – 191 AB

76. South Carolina SR C Dante Rosenberg: plus defender; 5-11, 180 pounds

2013: .352/.400/.481 – 3 BB/8 K – 0/0 SB – 54 AB

77. Pepperdine rSR C Nate Johnson: very pretty swing; below-average runner; solid defender; average arm; 6-1, 210 pounds

2011: .263/.356/.339 – 17 BB/25 K – 118 AB
2013: .350/.409/.550 – 3 BB/8 K – 0/0 SB – 40 AB

78. San Diego rSR C/OF Austin Green: plus arm; very raw defensively behind plate, but has improved a ton; promising bat; good athlete; arm works really well, very quick release; 6-2, 200 pounds

2012: .200/.256/.275 – 2 BB/10 K – 0/0 SB – 40 AB
2013: .301/.352/.490 – 8 BB/26 K – 1/2 SB – 143 AB

79. Western Oklahoma State JC rFR C Sicnarf Loopstok: strong arm; good agility; can also play 2B and 3B in a pinch; interesting power; 5-10, 200 pounds

2013: .370/.436/.655 – 11 BB/26 K – 6/8 SB – 119 AB

80. Wake Forest JR C Charlie Morgan: 6-3, 210 pounds

2011: .232/.318/.366 – 15 BB/31 K – 112 AB
2012: .246/.329/.391 – 24 BB/37 K – 2/3 SB – 179 AB
2013: .293/.399/.420 – 25 BB/22 K – 1/1 SB – 150 AB

81. Wake Forest SR C Brett Armour: good athlete; average speed; strong arm; really like his actions behind plate; 6-2, 190 pounds

2011: .197/.300/.274 – 19 BB/41 K – 157 AB
2012: .236/.285/.364 – 10 BB/35 K – 4/5 SB – 165 AB
2013: .297/.354/.417 – 14 BB/30 K – 1/3 SB – 175 AB

82. Stanford JR C Brant Whiting: 5-11, 180 pounds

2013: .398/.453/.487 – 11 BB/24 K – 0/0 SB – 113 AB

83. North Florida SR C/1B Paul Karmeris: 5-11, 190 pounds

2012: .261/.333/.373 – 11 BB/26 K – 5/7 SB – 134 AB
2013: .340/.405/.443 – 23 BB/19 K – 7/11 SB – 212 AB

84. Bowling Green JR C/1B Jeremy Shay: 6-0, 220 pounds

2012: .229/.333/.367 – 21 BB/44 K – 6/8 SB – 166 AB
2013: .309/.409/.500 – 22 BB/33 K – 1/4 SB – 162 AB

85. Santa Clara SR C Quinton Perry: 6-3, 210 pounds

2012: .198/.271/.375 – 8 BB/34 K – 1/3 SB – 96 AB
2013: .279/.354/.523 – 11 BB/27 K – 4/4 SB – 86 AB

86. Florida Gulf Coast SR C Mike Reeves: untapped power; improved defender; FAVORITE; 6-0, 200 pounds

2011: .331/.423/.440 – 28 BB/24 K – 175 AB
2012: .272/.392/.289 – 32 BB/24 K – 0/1 SB – 180 AB
2013: .391/.464/.456 – 27 BB/24 K – 0/0 SB – 215 AB

87. Bowling Green JR C TJ Losby: 6-1, 210 pounds

2012: .275/.356/.390 – 17 BB/33 K – 1/4 SB – 182 AB
2012: .330/.386/.457 – 13 BB/19 K – 3/5 SB – 188 AB

88. Mississippi State SR C Nick Ammirati: really strong defender; Seton Hall transfer; 5-9, 190 pounds

2013: .301/.371/.350 – 12 BB/19 K – 2/3 SB – 123 AB

89. Coastal Carolina rSO C Will Remillard: solid defender; strong arm; Temple transfer; 6-1, 190 pounds

2013: .290/.343/.403 – 12 BB/17 K – 2/3 SB – 186 AB

90. Chattahoochee Valley CC SO C Cody Walker: good defensive tools; strong arm; quick transfer; receives ball well; bat lags behind, but good 2013 season gives hope; 5-11, 190 pounds

2013: .348/.493/.438 – 16 BB/19 K – 2 SB – 112 AB

91. Montevallo JR C Jackson Slaid: raw defender, but good tools; solid arm; slow release; average speed; strong hit tool; LSU transfer; 5-9, 190 pounds

2013: .329/.385/.514 – 15 BB/34 K – 13/16 SB – 216 AB

92. St. John’s SR C Danny Bethea: 6-1, 215 pounds

2012: .251/.371/.335 – 25 BB/22 K – 1/2 SB
2013: .285/.367/.392 – 22 BB/18 K – 6/9 SB – 186 AB

93. Boston College SR C Matt Paré: 6-0, 200 pounds

2012: .267/.425/.418 – 25 BB/37 K – 0/1 SB – 146 AB
2013: .295/.405/.425 – 16 BB/23 K – 0/0 SB – 146 AB

94. Texas A&M JR C Troy Stein: 6-1, 210 pounds

2012: .304/.390/.411 – 22 BB/43 K – 1/2 SB – 158 AB
2013: .335/.388/.492 – 13 BB/35 K – 3/3 SB – 179 AB

95. Arkansas JR C Jake Wise: really good defender; plus arm; 6-0, 200 pounds

2012: .238/.335/.335 – 20 BB/38 K – 2/3 SB – 164 AB
2013: .206/.308/.288 – 24 BB/20 K – 3/5 SB – 170 AB

96. Bradley JR C Austin Jarvis: plus-plus arm; quick release; great footwork; questionable hit tool; 5-9, 190 pounds

2012: .242/.294/.336 – 5 BB/19 K – 1/2 SB – 149 AB
2013: .232/.314/.280 – 7 BB/21 K – 1/1 SB – 125 AB

97. Oklahoma State rJR C Rick Stover: plus defender; plus arm; 5-10, 225 pounds

2013: .300/.333/.475 – 1 BB/9 K – 0/0 SB – 40 AB

98. Liberty JR C/RHP Danny Grauer: flashes interesting power, but still may be best long-term on mound; 88-92 FB, 93 peak; 6-2, 225 pounds

2012: .239/.379/.326 – 10 BB/9 K – 0/0 SB – 46 AB
2013: .327/.409/.551 – 17 BB/36 K – 0/0 SB – 156 AB

99. UNC Asheville SR C Ian Graham: 5-11, 210 pounds

2012: .273/.386/.344 – 23 BB/26 K – 0/0 SB – 154 AB
2013: .331/.438/.477 – 31 BB/25 K – 0/1 SB – 172 AB

100. South Carolina Upstate JR C Luke Weber: 6-3, 220 pounds

2012: .283/.361/.361 – 26 BB/30 K – 0/0 SB – 205 AB
2013: .327/.399/.477 – 17 BB/35 K – 0/0 SB – 199 AB

***

And because I can’t help myself, here are 49 extra players to keep tabs on for draft day and beyond…

101. Marist JR C Zach Passerelle: 6-4, 220 pounds

2013: .305/.404/.422 – 24 BB/30 K – 3/4 SB – 154 AB

102. Austin Peay State JR C PJ Torres: 5-11, 200 pounds

2012: .217/.333/.362 – 20 BB/37 K – 0/1 SB – 138 AB
2013: .266/.378/.468 – 24 BB/35 K – 1/4 SB – 158 AB

103. Seminole State CC SO C Darryl Knight: aggressive; above-average arm; both raw defensively and at plate; 6-2, 200 pounds

2013: .263/.376/.453 – 17 BB/39 K – 3/4 SB – 137 AB

104. TCU JR C Kyle Bacak: really good defender; strong arm; 5-9, 180 pounds

2013: .288/.363/.317 – 14 BB/17 K – 0/0 SB – 139 AB

105. South Alabama SR C Whitt Dorsey: 5-10, 180 pounds

2012: .327/.398/.410 – 13 BB/18 K – 3/4 SB – 205 AB
2013: .346/.446/.406 – 19 BB/8 K – 0/2 SB – 133 AB

106. George Mason JR C Tucker Tobin

2013: .332/.388/.560 – 14 BB/35 K – 6/8 SB – 184 AB

107. Michigan State JR C/1B Joel Fisher: 6-2, 215 pounds

2011: .245/.326/.323 – 15 BB/34 K – 155 AB
2012: .295/.336/.394 – 4 BB/20 K – 0/0 SB – 132 AB
2013: .253/.330/.416 – 17 BB/38 K – 0/0 SB – 178 AB

108. Minnesota rSR C Kurt Schlangen: 6-0, 185 pounds

2012: .259/.302/.309 – 10 BB/18 K – 5/9 SB – 162 AB
2013: .376/.421/.409 – 7 BB/13 K – 6/12 SB – 149 AB

109. Wisconsin-Milwaukee SR C Will Fadness: 5-11, 200 pounds

2012: .305/.346/.474 – 8 BB/19 K – 1/2 SB – 190 AB
2013: .333/.413/.469 – 13 BB/12 K – 3/4 SB – 147 AB

110. Lynn JR C/3B Sal Giardina: raw defender; plus arm strength; interesting raw power; 6-4, 200 pounds

2013: .283/.384/.480 – 8 BB/24 K – 1/2 SB – 127 AB

111. Miami-Dade JC rFR C Mario Amaral: power upside; 6-1, 210 pounds

2013: .352/.392/.445 – 10 BB/23 K – 9/11 SB – 128 AB

112. Nebraska SO C Tanner Lubach: strong hit tool; improving behind plate; 6-0, 180 pounds

2013: .294/.369/.364 – 15 BB/28 K – 2/3 SB – 143 AB

113. Wright State SR C Garrett Gray: 6-1, 225 pounds

2012: .311/.339/.457 – 8 BB/19 K – 0/0 SB – 164 AB
2013: .328/.365/.489 – 12 BB/21 K – 8/8 SB – 186 AB

114. North Dakota JR C Zack Trygstad: 6-1, 200 pounds

2011: .248/.349/.355 – 18 BB/28 K – 141 AB
2012: .260/.332/.333 – 17 BB/24 K – 3/3 SB – 177 AB
2013: .311/.397/.424 – 18 BB/15 K – 2/4 SB – 132 AB

115. North Florida SR C Corey Bass: good defender; strong arm; bat isn’t much; 5-9, 200 pounds

2011: .306/.404/.371 – 16 BB/24 K – 124 AB
2012: .214/.309/.275 – 14 BB/33 K – 1/2 SB – 131 AB
2013: .320/.396/.472 – 20 BB/45 K – 4/8 SB – 178 AB

116. Miami (Ohio) JR C John Crummy: 6-1, 200 pounds

2012: .299/.343/.341 – 8 BB/29 K – 0/0 SB – 167 AB
2013: .365/.397/.485 – 5 BB/19 K – 0/0 SB – 167 AB

117. Mercer JR C Austin Barrett: good defender; good arm, plays up due to release; no real standout tool, but solid across board; 6-2, 200 pounds

2012: .271/.399/.400 – 31 BB/23 K – 2/3 SB – 140 AB
2013: .284/.353/.431 – 20 BB/36 K – 2/4 SB – 197 AB

118. Fresno State rSR C Trent Garrison: plus-plus arm; could be tried on mound; missed 2011 due to ACL injury; 6-0, 190 pounds

2012: .344/.396/.436 – 15 BB/28 K – 0/1 SB – 195 AB
2013: .290/.344/.369 – 13 BB/28 K – 3/6 SB – 176 AB

119. Southern Illinois JR C Matt Jones: 6-0, 185 pounds

2013: .302/.368/.428 – 21 BB/32 K – 1/1 SB – 222 AB

120. Western Kentucky SR C Devin Kelly: 6-3, 225 pounds

2012: .236/.304/.366 – 12 BB/24 K – 1/1 SB – 123 AB
2013: .281/.425/.416 – 40 BB/47 K – 4/5 SB – 185 AB

121. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi SR C/OF Eric Weiss: 6-1, 200 pounds

2012: .261/.352/.372 – 29 BB/44 K – 8/15 SB – 199 AB
2013: .327/.401/.480 – 24 BB/39 K – 9/14 SB – 202 AB

122. Hofstra JR C Matt Reistetter: 5-10, 180 pounds

2012: .246/.327/.304 – 14 BB/16 K – 5/12 SB – 138 AB
2013: .315/.374/.416 – 15 BB/23 K – 6/13 SB – 178 AB

123. Polk State JC C Erik Hindmon: plus defender; not a ton of power

2013: .289/.358/.321 – 15 BB/25 K – 5/5 SB – 187 AB

124. Longwood JR C Scott Burkett: 5-11, 210 pounds

2012: .344/.431/.599 – 16 BB/26 K – 4/6 SB – 157 AB
2013: .339/.384/.452 – 11 BB/33 K – 0/0 SB – 186 AB

125. North Carolina Greensboro SR C/OF Zach Leach: 6-2, 200 pounds

2012: .303/.373/.436 – 18 BB/25 K – 6/8 SB – 165 AB
2013: .322/.379/.448 – 13 BB/33 K – 9/12 SB – 143 AB

126. Furman SR C/1B Paul Nitto: 6-1, 200 pounds

2011: .271/.342/.418 – 16 BB/38 K – 170 AB
2012: .287/.380/.416 – 24 BB/31 K – 2/3 SB – 178 AB
2013: .292/.358/.436 – 13 BB/35 K – 0/0 SB – 202 AB

127. Maine JR C/RHP Fran Whitten: 6-4, 210 pounds

2011: .241/.318/.421 – 13 BB/31 K – 133 AB
2012: .301/.365/.425 – 11 BB/27 K – 3/5 SB – 186 AB
2013: .300/.366/.450 – 5 BB/15 K – 2/2 SB – 100 AB

2012: 8.24 K/9 | 4.26 BB/9 | 3.93 FIP | 31.2 IP

128. Portland rSR C Beau Fraser: 6-1, 220 pounds

2012: .245/.333/.330 – 12 BB/17 K – 0/0 SB – 94 AB
2013: .268/.351/.315 – 17 BB/26 K – 0/2 SB – 127 AB

129. Maryland SR C Jack Cleary: 6-2, 205 pounds

2012: .336/.410/.405 – 8 BB/13 K – 2/3 SB – 116 AB
2013: .230/.354/.328 – 12 BB/16 K – 0/0 SB – 122 AB

130. Minnesota JR C Matt Halloran: good defender; 5-10, 175 pounds

2011: .125/.152/.219 – 1 BB/12 K – 32 AB
2012: .340/.415/.440 – 12 BB/23 K – 0/1 SB – 150 AB
2013: .260/.319/.386 – 7 BB/21 K – 1/1 SB – 127 AB

131. Presbyterian rSR C Robby Swab: good approach; 6-0, 200 pounds

2012: .302/.406/.326 – 21 BB/18 K – 1/4 SB – 129 AB
2013: .315/.419/.382 – 14 BB/10 K – 0/0 SB – 89 AB

132. Lehigh JR C Joe Abeln

2012: .270/.349/.388 – 17 BB/19 K – 7/9 SB – 152 AB
2013: .317/.432/.384 – 18 BB/21 K – 7/9 SB – 164 AB

133. Grambling State SR C Jose Longoria: 6-0, 170 pounds

2012: .307/.375/.392 – 12 BB/15 K – 2/4 SB – 153 AB
2013: .270/.350/.326 – 19 BB/17 K – 6/7 SB – 178 AB

134. Butler SR C Radley Haddad: plus defender, does everything well behind dish; plus arm; ML-ready glove; quick feet; ball gets out in a hurry; Western Carolina transfer; questionable bat; 6-1, 190 pounds

2012: .253/.352/.331 – 19 BB/29 K – 0/1 SB – 166 AB
2013: .249/.369/.355 – 27 BB/38 K – 0/2 SB – 169 AB

135. Iowa SR C Dan Sheppard: really good defender; some pop; TJ survivor; 6-0, 190 pounds

2012: .234/.318/.287 – 8 BB/22 K – 3/3 SB – 94 AB
2013: .253/.307/.297 – 4 BB/19 K – 2/3 SB – 91 AB

136. North Dakota State JR C/OF Kyle Kleinendorst: 6-1, 200 pounds

2012: .200/.301/.366 – 17 BB/34 K – 0/0 SB – 145 AB
2013: .326/.405/.449 – 10 BB/41 K – 7/8 SB – 138 AB

137. Holy Cross SR C/1B Stephen Wadsworth: 6-2, 230 pounds

2011: .283/.348/.428 – 14 BB/28 K – 145 AB
2012: .228/.287/.329 – 9 BB/32 K – 1/1 SB – 149 AB
2013: .277/.359/.385 – 13 BB/29 K – 6/8 SB – 148 AB

138. Toledo JR C James Miglin: 6-4, 230 pounds

2012: .269/.351/.381 – 17 BB/21 K – 0/1 SB – 197 AB
2013: .281/.328/.400 – 6 BB/25 K – 0/0 SB – 185 AB

139. Penn State JR C Alex Farkes: 6-3, 215 pounds

2011: .233/.421/.256 – 10 BB/10 K – 43 AB
2012: .205/.280/.277 – 7 BB/21 K – 1/2 SB – 83 AB
2013: .284/.346/.328 – 6 BB/21 K – 0/1 SB – 116 AB

140. Albany rJR C/1B/OF Josh Nethaway: 6-2, 220 pounds

2012: .282/.353/.399 – 14 BB/28 K – 1/3 SB – 163 AB
2013: .284/.347/.415 – 8 BB/25 K – 1/1 SB – 176 AB

141. Arkansas-Little Rock SR C Blake Johnson: 6-0, 190 pounds

2012: .285/.372/.497 – 19 BB/43 K – 3/4 SB – 165 AB
2013: .321/.413/.510 – 29 BB/50 K – 8/12 SB – 196 AB

142. Towson SR C Zach Fisher: 5-9, 190 pounds

2012: .284/.376/.414 – 22 BB/29 K – 5/6 SB – 162 AB
2013: .307/.403/.366 – 29 BB/46 K – 14/20 SB – 205 AB

143. Cal Poly JR C Chris Hoo: really, really good defender; strong arm; 5-9, 185 pounds

2012: .253/.337/.359 – 15 BB/35 K – 0/1 SB – 170 AB
2013: .211/.278/.296 – 5 BB/13 K – 0/0 SB – 71 AB

144. UAB SR C/1B Harry Clark: 6-2, 200 pounds

2011: .240/.342/.271 – 19 BB/19 K – 129 AB
2012: .292/.380/.333 – 15 BB/10 K – 1/1 SB – 120 AB
2013: .273/.376/.295 – 17 BB/18 K – 1/2 SB – 139 AB

145. Illinois State JR C Mike Hollenbeck: good power; strong arm; defense a question; 6-2, 210 pounds

2011: .259/.371/.389 – 28 BB/24 K – 162 AB
2012: .316/.427/.435 – 35 BB/28 K – 1/1 SB – 177 AB
2013: .297/.377/.331 – 22 BB/34 K – 1/2 SB – 172 AB

146. McNeese State SR C/1B Michael Sullivan:

2012: .212/.272/.321 – 11 BB/40 K – 0/0 SB – 156 AB
2013: .292/.345/.366 – 11 BB/23 K – 0/0 SB – 161 AB

147. San Diego State rSO C Brad Haynal: good defensive tools; broken leg kept him out in 2012; 6-3, 200 pounds

2011: .248/.358/.384 – 15 BB/29 K – 125 AB
2013: .255/.318/.389 – 11 BB/45 K – 1/3 SB – 157 AB

148. Texas State rJR C Tyler Pearson: solid defender; well above-average arm; Rice transfer; 6-1, 190 pounds

2013: .250/.373/.292 – 21 BB/38 K – 1/2 SB – 168 AB

149. Central Arkansas JR C Kraig Kelley: strong arm; great footwork; really strong defensive tools; bat is a question; Oklahoma Wesleyan transfer; 6-0, 180 pounds

2012: .180/.307/.213 – 10 BB/27 K – 1/1 SB – 61 AB
2013: .234/.400/.266 – 16 BB/18 K – 0/0 SB – 64 AB

Draft Prep Update

22 May 2013 8:04 PM / 3 Comments on Draft Prep Update

Things are about to get crazy around here, I promise. The lists and scouting notes that will appear on these pages will be bigger and better than ever before. Well, certainly bigger…better is up for debate, but bigger is undeniably true. The completed lists (C and 1B) are currently so massive, I’m actually contemplating editing myself, something I rarely do. Here’s what I mean when I say I think my lists this year are literally too long:

College catchers (all levels, junior college included) drafted in the past five years: 76, 85, 90, 71, 75 (79.4 average)

College first basemen (all levels, junior college included) drafted in the past five years: 34, 52, 53, 57, 53 (49.8 average)

So, a good list for each position would be, say, 100 for college catchers (90 being the max over the past five years, plus a little wiggle room) and right around 50 for college first basemen. My college catcher list is currently at 149 draftable names. I have 122 draftable college first basemen. Do I cut a few of the guys off the back end for the sake of a “better” list? I say better because many of the names at the end are either a) players I’ve taken a liking to based solely on intriguing production (always a dangerous game), or b) players I’ve received a “tip” on from assorted area pals who haven’t given me much more than “I just like him and think he’s worth a late pick.” I tend to believe the more the merrier, but I don’t want to delude the list and potentially discredit the whole endeavor. Unfortunately, there are some who look at a mega-long list and think it’s just an aggregation of multiple, professionally published lists. That’s obviously not the case here, but it’s something to think about. I think ultimately I’ll keep the lists long. If I’ve got a scouting note, however brief, on some 50th round pick, then that’s a net positive for my fellow draft obsessed brothers and sisters. This was a good talk. Thanks for listening.

An out-of-town wedding figures to burn up the entirety of my Memorial Day weekend, but that’s in terms of non-work intensive days for me. Prepare yourselves for a word avalanche beginning next Tuesday. Here’s the tentative schedule going forward (dates in parentheses are my “work days” included only for my own sake, so feel free to ignore them):

May 28: Catchers (ready)

May 29: First Basemen (ready)

May 30: Second Basemen (almost ready)

May 31: Third Basemen (5/23 + 5/27)

June 1: [fighting the urge to be social and enjoy nice late spring weather]

June 2: [see above]

June 3: Shortstops (5/28 + 5/29)

June 4: Outfielders (5/30, 5/31, 6/1)

June 5: Pitchers (6/2, 6/3, 6/4)

June 6: Great Big Giant Super Duper Big Board

If you made it this far, here’s a treat. Of course, when I say treat I mean something that is almost certainly of no interest to anybody but myself, especially when shown with little context like this. But, since today is 5/22/13, here are my 5th, 22nd, and 13th top college catching prospects (note: rankings are subject to change…I need to do one last run through before next Tuesday’s publication):

5. California JR C Andrew Knapp: big upside with bat; above-average defender; above-average arm; love his approach; smart hitter, makes adjustments well; above-average power; some don’t like his defense like I do; uses whole field well; average speed; defense will come just needs experience; good athlete; FAVORITE; 2013: defense has been disappointing, but I remain a believer in him being able to stick behind plate; 6-1, 200 pounds (2011: .227/.307/.318 – 7 BB/22 K – 66 AB) (2012: .270/.354/.422 – 24 BB/33 K – 211 AB – 4/7 SB) (2013: .406/.481/.634 – 26 BB/33 K – 4/6 SB – 202 AB)

22. Air Force SR C Garrett Custons: great athlete; good speed; plus-plus arm; 5-11, 200 pounds (2011: .282/.371/.469 – 19 BB/42 K – 209 AB) (2012: .269/.359/.421 – 17 BB/34 K – 7/12 SB – 171 AB) (2013: .332/.424/.473 – 19 BB/32 K – 14/19 SB – 205 AB)

13. The Citadel JR C Joe Jackson: underrated upside with bat; competition a question, but little to dislike about production; wish he showed better on Cape; 6-1, 200 pounds (2011: .337/.403/.414 – 20 BB/19 K – 169 AB) (2012: .297/.364/.415 – 22 BB/36 K – 4/4 SB – 229 AB) (2013: .423/.517/.712 – 37 BB/27 K – 3/8 SB – 215 AB)

College Shortstops to Know

15 May 2013 11:02 PM / Leave a comment

This, this right here, is not a particularly inspiring list. I’m hard-pressed to find a single potential regular middle infielder in this group. That leaves us with a collection of players with the chance to make it as utility infielders in the pros. That’s where things get interesting. It’s a fine line between starting shortstop/second baseman and quality utility man, I think. I’m not sure anybody outside of a few voices in the Twins organization who viewed Nick Punto as anything more than a potential above-average backup infielder. Guys like Pat Blair and Adam Frazier may not be quite good enough to warrant 500+ PA in any given big league year, but if they take to pro coaching and land in the right organization and hang around long enough to maybe see an injury or two ahead of them on the depth chart…well, you just never know.

VERY IMPORTANT NOTE: The list only includes players from the conferences I’ve profiled so far. That would be the Big 10, SEC, ACC, Big East, Ivy, Mountain West, WCC, Sun Belt, Pac 12, WAC, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, and Big 12. As referenced above, players from the rest of college ball will be added in the very near future.

Clemson JR SS Steve Wilkerson
Wake Forest SR SS Pat Blair
Mississippi State JR SS Adam Frazier
Oregon SR SS JJ Altobelli
Oregon State SR SS Tyler Smith
Florida State SR SS Justin Gonzalez
East Carolina JR SS Jack Reinheimer
Texas A&M SR SS Mikey Reynolds
Oregon State JR SS Kavin Keyes
Texas Christian SO SS Derek Odell
Vanderbilt rSO SS Joel McKeithan
UCLA JR SS Pat Valaika
Texas Christian JR SS Paul Hendrix
Tulane SR SS Garrett Cannizaro
Mississippi JR SS Austin Anderson
Auburn JR SS Dan Glevenyak
Maryland JR SS Kyle Convissar
Miami JR SS Alex Hernandez
Southern California JR SS Jimmy Roberts
California JR SS Derek Campbell
Southern Mississippi SR SS Isaac Rodriguez
Texas State SR SS Nick Smelser
Texas-Arlington JR SS Ryan Walker
Rutgers JR SS Nick Favatella
Louisville JR SS Alex Chittenden
Louisiana Tech JR SS Ryan Gebhardt
Duke JR SS Angelo LaBruna
Washington State rSO SS Trace Tam Sing
Stanford JR SS Danny Diekroeger
Oregon State JR SS Andy Peterson
Louisiana-Lafayette JR SS Ryan Leonards
San Diego JR SS Logan Davis

Myles Smith, California Catchers, and the 2005 BA Prospect Handbook

13 May 2013 11:16 PM / Leave a comment

1. My love of Braden Shipley is pretty well established at this point (see below for the quick burst of excitement I wrote about him from February, way before he was a potential top ten pick let alone first round lock), so please allow me to champion the NAIA version of Shipley in this year’s draft class, Myles Smith from Lee University. The well-traveled Smith is a well known commodity at this point in the draft process, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t deserve an extra shot of attention heading into June. Just about everything I wrote about Shipley below applies to Smith: easy plus velocity (90-95, 96-97 peak all spring), plus low-80s change (my favorite pitch), a much improved 78-82 slider, and, just as importantly, outstanding athleticism and a plus fielder. I don’t yet know how brave I’ll be when it comes down to final rankings, but I do know this: if my favorite team decides to shock the world and take Smith with the 16th overall pick, I won’t complain one bit. That’s bold, right?

Braden Shipley is going to rank very, very high up on my overall ranking of college pitchers (coming soon!). If I was better at searching this site, I’d look up every pitcher that I’ve described as my “ideal” pitching prospect or a pitcher “invented in a lab” to suit my needs or whatever other dumb phrase I’ve used to describe my idea of a “perfect” pitching prospect. Shipley rings every bell: easy velocity (92-95 as starter, has hit upwards of 97 in short bursts), low-80s change with above-average upside, solid upper-70s curve, good athleticism, improved command, good glove, effective pickoff move, sturdy frame with room to build on (6-3, 180 pounds), and experience as a hitter (.265/.351/.346 in 136 AB in 2011). I think he’s likely one of those guys I like a lot more than professional talent evaluators, but that’s alright: he may not be a first round, household name come June, but I still think he’s a future big leaguer.

2. I’m honing in on and finalizing high school positional lists now. I like doing the prep prospects first because it gives me a chance to wait until the end of the college regular season before evaluating those guys. I’ll probably be popping in and out over the next few days with seemingly random observations about this year’s high school class. One such example: damn, California is loaded with high school catching this year. Everybody knows about the quality and depth of prep catching across the country this year, but California alone has enough prospects of interest behind the plate to make it a good year for young catching almost by itself. It is looking highly unlikely I’ll have a California catcher in my top five (leaning WA, OK, SC, FL, and BC as of now), but there could be 5 in the top 11, 7 in the top 16, and 11 in the top 28. Sorting them out is a whole other issue, of course. You’ve got the strong, athletic, powerful yet raw defender in Jacob Nottingham. Francis Christy is similar, though arguably a little less powerful and a little more agile. Jake Sweaney is in a similar situation. There’s yet another raw defender in Tyler Alamo, but he’s a favorite thanks to one of the most mature approaches at the plate of any high schooler this year. And this all says nothing of a pair of rock solid, realistic big league floor guys (obvious caveat: the floor for any prospect is flaming out in A-ball, so we use a “realistic” floor to represent a best-case worst-case scenario, if that makes sense) in the dissected to death but still a damn good ballplayer Jeremy Martinez and Arden Pabst.

3. This likely qualifies as “too much information,” but my go-to bathroom reading over the past year or two has been my copy of the 2005 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. Many of my best (and worst!) comps have come from the pages of that particular book. My most recent comparison is a bit of a stretch, but not crazy if you keep an open mind. Here we go…

6-2, 225 pounds (when drafted)
R/R
14th overall draft pick (underslot predraft deal)
“patient approach and line-drive mentality”
“quick hands and excellent hand-eye coordination”
“uses the whole field and generates natural loft”
“must improve flexibility to enhance his range at third base”
“eventually may have to move to first base”
“below-average runner but not a base-clogger”

The 2013 prospect in question fits much, if not all, of these statements. Plus, he’s listed 6-1, 205 pounds, he’s R/R, and he could go off the board around the 14th pick (probably lower, which would fit the underslot thing). Slow start to the 2013 season aside, Billy Butler, the player described in the bullets above, has turned himself into an excellent big league hitter. If you’re taking DJ Peterson in a similar range in 2013, then you’re doing so with the hope that he hits as a pro like Butler has to this point. The one major difference between the two players is their respective paths to the pro game: Butler signed out of high school while Peterson obviously went the college route. That’s pretty important here, especially when you consider Butler was a big league regular at the same point in Peterson’s current development. So, don’t the comp too seriously. Just a ceiling thing, and a potential rationale for a team selecting Peterson higher than you or I might currently expect.

2013 MLB Draft Top 20

13 May 2013 12:44 AM / Leave a comment

Draft is close enough that I think it is high time to revisit some first round prospects to keep in mind. It’s not a real big board, but it might as well be. It’s a work in progress.

1. San Diego OF Kris Bryant
2. Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray
3. Stanford RHP Mark Appel

After that, I’m still very much undecided. Heck, even that third spot is still a bit of a mystery to me. The temptation to move up one of the prep guys — the guy in fourth below, most notably — is one I may just give in to between now and draft day. Turns out that current indecision leads to me getting all excited about upside, so let’s go with the top three high school prospects next…

4. St. Pius X HS (TX) RHP Kohl Stewart
5. Grayson HS (GA) OF Austin Meadows
6. Loganville HS (GA) OF Clint Frazier

I feel pretty good about the top six, but that’s about as far as I can go without getting the shakes when thinking about putting this thing together. Long-term readers of the site know I’m much, much more comfortable going 50 deep on a college catching prospect list than ranking the top ten overall prospects in the draft.

7. Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea
8. Nevada RHP Braden Shipley
9. Arkansas RHP Ryne Stanek

I’m still of the belief that Manaea’s recent hiccup in stuff is a temporary concern and not a long-term worry. I admittedly don’t have a whole lot of evidence to currently back up my claim, but I may have some more to share on that in the coming days. Call it a semi-educated hunch for now.

10. North Carolina 3B Colin Moran
11. Serra HS (CA) 1B Dominic Smith

You know, I get why people are down on this year’s class, but, damn, I think the quartet of Bryant, Frazier, Moran, and Smith stacks up quite nicely with any four bats at the top of any draft in recent memory. I’m cheating by swapping out Meadows for Smith, but I’m using my own specific rule of “best bat” as a guideline. Meadows is an exciting prospect, no doubt, but Smith’s bat is easily 1 or 1A (to Frazier’s 1B) in this year’s high school class. So if that’s our top four, let’s see if there is any legitimacy to the aforementioned historical claim:

2012 (mine): Correa/Buxton/Zunino/Almora
2012 (draft): Correa/Buxton/Zunino/Almora

Very comparable group, I think. Bryant is a better prospect than Zunino, and the high school hitters all are closely bunched. Buxton, of course, appears to have separated himself quite a bit from the pack, but that’s a development that can’t really be taken into account when talking draft stock. After pondering it a bit more, I think the 2012 group is better, though I’m not sure if I can explain why. I guess Correa + Buxton > Frazier + Smith explains it some.

2011 (mine): Rendon/Starling/Swihart/Lindor
2011 (draft): Starling/Rendon/Lindor/Baez

Rendon vs Moran is an interesting draft case study, but I think I’d call it for Rendon. The remaining 2011 group has the edge in positional value, but if we’re talking bat only, I like the 2013’s.

2010 (mine): Harper/Wilson/Castellanos/O’Conner
2010 (draft): Harper/Machado/Choice/Sale

Harper alone makes me want to go 2010, so that’s what I’ll do. A better question would be which of the 2010 groups is better: Machado is a huge win for the real draft order, but Wilson and Castellanos give my list a little bit of intriguing depth. Then again, Choice has done almost exactly what was expected of him and Sale did have a better than you’d believe 2012 season, ugly 2013 suspension notwithstanding.

2009 (mine): Ackley/Borchering/Green/Tate
2009 (draft): Ackley/Tate/Sanchez/Green

This is a no contest win for 2013, right? Right. Moving on…

12. Mississippi State OF Hunter Renfroe
13. Lakewood HS (CA) SS JP Crawford
14. Kentwood HS (WA) C Reese McGuire
15. New Castle HS (IN) LHP Trey Ball
16. Stanford OF Austin Wilson
17. Fresno State OF Aaron Judge
18. Yukon HS (OK) C Jonathan Denney

Sorting out the three big bat college right field prospects is a fun chore. A breakdown of the three of them may be a good post for the future. I really, really, really like Reese McGuire (I’m stunned the comp hasn’t been made yet as far as I can see, but he reminds me so much of the good version of Jason Kendall), but prep catchers are the one position group where I buy into conventional draft wisdom. I’d stay away from them if at all possible, though I think McGuire, Denney, and Nick Ciuffo are all talented enough all-around ballplayers to take the gamble at the right spot in the round.

19. St. Joseph Regional HS (NJ) LHP Rob Kaminsky
20. Bandys HS (NC) RHP Hunter Harvey

I reserve the right to move some prep arms up after more study, but I will say for now that I think this class has a really intriguing collection of depth in this area. Again, that’s something that is probably true of all draft classes — it really is incredible to think about many teenage human beings keep popping up throwing at least 88-92 every single year — but it feels like a relative strength in this year’s draft. Maybe it is because there isn’t a ton of separation between the top tier guys and the pitchers who may still be around past round five or so.

College Second Basemen to Know

7 May 2013 11:32 PM / 12 Comments on College Second Basemen to Know

Using older scouting reports and numbers that don’t include 2013 performances isn’t exactly a recipe for great prospect lists. However, with a few notable exceptions (Elvin Soto!), the lists have held up pretty well so far, something that should come as no surprise to anybody who buys my “once you show a tool, you own it” philosophy of prospect evaluation.

After the catcher and first base lists, I was feeling pretty good. Then…second base happened. I don’t move guys around too much for this exercise — big shifts are coming soon, what with the draft in less than a month — but this second base group was so hard to look at, I had to make some little tweaks. The top name on my pre-season list is/was…Lonnie Kauppila. I still like Kauppila just fine — he’s such a good glove that he may wind up with the shortstop group after more thought — but, man, he hasn’t hit a lick this year. Same goes for original number two (Riddle) and five (Williams). For the sake of both time and my sanity, I bumped up a few names and kept the struggling guys in the same order but down a few pegs from their preseason perches. It’s not exactly rocket science, but it’ll have to do for now.

Connecticut SR 2B LJ Mazzilli
Clemson JR 2B Shane Kennedy
Kansas State JR 2B Ross Kivett
Houston JR 2B Frankie Ratcliff
Virginia SR 2B Reed Gragnani
Princeton JR 2B Alec Keller
Louisville JR 2B Ty Young
Stanford JR 2B/SS Lonnie Kauppila
Kentucky JR 2B JT Riddle
UCLA JR 2B Kevin Williams
Wichita State JR 2B Dayne Parker
Rice SR 2B Christian Stringer
Tulane SR 2B Brennan Middleton
Georgia Tech SR 2B Sam Dove
Georgia SR 2B Kyle Farmer
Georgia Tech JR 2B Mott Hyde
Arizona State JR 2B Mike Benjamin
Texas Christian SR 2B Josh Gonzales
Baylor rJR 2B Lawton Langford
Stanford JR 2B Brett Michael Doran
Indiana State rSR 2B Koby Kraemer
New Mexico State SR 2B Parker Hipp
Oregon JR 2B Aaron Payne
Sacramento State SR 2B Andrew Ayers
Southern California SR 2B Adam Landecker
Gonzaga SR 2B Clayton Eslick
Loyola Marymount SR 2B Cullen Mahoney
Miami SR 2B Michael Broad
North Carolina State SR 2B Matt Bergquist
Middle Tennessee State SR 2B Johnny Thomas
Kentucky JR 2B Paul McConkey
San Diego State JR 2B Tim Zier
Louisville SR 2B Nick Ratajczak
Cornell SR 2B Brenton Peters
Wake Forest SR 2B Mark Rhine
South Alabama rSO 2B Logan Kirkland
Texas A&M JR 2B Charlie Curl

Phillip Ervin

1 May 2013 3:52 PM / Leave a comment

I’m good at compiling notes and making lists and churning out content in the days immediately preceding the draft. I think I can retrieve and process information from a variety of sources with the best of them. When it comes time to actually sitting down to write, I can string together a few sentences (occasionally typo-free!). I’m good enough, I’m smart enough, and doggone it, people like me. Or at least these are the things that I tell myself in the mirror each day to affirm my value to the world as a draft site writer guy. There are days when the responsibilities of real life back me into a corner where I desperately need a reason to keep doing what I do here, and those reasons typically suffice.

One thing I’m terrible with, as if you haven’t yet noticed, is the inspiration/creativity/good writer-ing (definitely a real word, look it up) part. I have lots of fun information (109,000+ words on college prospects, 11,000+ on prep players) that I want to share with fellow draft obsessives, but rarely can I think of a clever way of presenting said info. I like lists and team profiles and conference profiles and all that good stuff, but the site would get boring if that’s all I ever did. Or at least that’s how I think people reading would feel. Long story short, on those rare and beautiful occasions that inspiration strikes, I’m really going to make and effort to just turn off the doubting part of my brain and just go with it. I woke up this morning thinking a little bit about Phillip Ervin — is that normal? — so, doggone it, that’s who I’m going to write about today.

I like Phillip Ervin a lot. Is it crazy to suggest that he’s a little teeny tiny bit like the college version of everybody’s favorite high school hitter, Clint Frazier? Both are praised for, in order, their 1) electric bat speed, 2) well-rounded overall skill sets, 3) above-average arm strength (pre-injury for Frazier), 4) picture perfect pro-ready swings, 5) above-average speed on the base paths, and 6) advanced pitch recognition skills. The main concern for both is that they are maxed-out physically. Additionally, both can hack it in center (Ervin more than Frazier), but profile best defensively in right field (again, assuming Frazier’s bum arm bounces back in time). This is all far too simplistic a comparison and I’m clearly not taking into account the crucially important differences in their hair, but you can kind of see how the two share some things if you keep an open mind, right?

More reputable organizations have come up with very interesting comps in their own right. Baseball America quoted a scout who relayed a Ron Gant comp for Ervin. Interesting. Perfect Game’s Frankie Piliere (always a favorite of the site, but he’s been better than ever this year) went with a pretty and thought-provoking Ian Kinsler comp. Interesting x2. I like both comps for a variety of reasons (swing/body/athleticism), but my own close viewing of Ervin (keep in mind, I’m not a scout) brought to mind a former favorite of mine, Reggie Sanders. A friend who has seen Ervin more than me — and a guy who, unlike me and my reliance on a shaky images from when I was a kid (not all my fault: I was 5 when Sanders debuted in the bigs), has clear memories these players from watching them up close and in person — offered up his own righthanded Mark Kotsay comp. Let’s go to the career numbers (using B-R 162 game average) for some context:

Gant: .256/.336/.468 with 28 HR and 21 SB
Kinsler: .273/.351/.462 with 25 HR and 27 SB
Sanders: .267/.343/.487 with 28 HR and 28 SB
Kotsay: .278/.334/.409 with 11 HR and 9 SB

A few thoughts…

1) The Kotsay comp jumps out as being particularly light in terms of both power and speed projections. This jibed with what my guy said about Ervin, a player he believes is a great college hitter but likely an average at best big league bat. He did concede that totals more like Kotsay’s best year (17 HR and 11 SB) were more in line with the kind of upside Ervin possesses. Worth noting that our conversation discounted Kotsay’s strong on-base skills and defense: we were strictly talking power, speed, and overall batting lines during our talk. Also worth noting that average at best big league bat is nothing to get down about, especially in this year’s draft, and especially if you believe Ervin can stick in center as a pro.

2. Damn, Reggie Sanders was a good player. I normally don’t have a great feel for “underrated” or “overrated,” but his is a name you don’t hear enough these days. Then again, I guess it would be weird if people were just walking around talking about Reggie Sanders, but still. Very good player.

3. Outside of the Kotsay outlier, you can see some basic trends with these comps. We’re talking 20/20 potential (see above) with almost perfectly above-average BB% (see below).

Gant: 10.5 BB% and 19.3 K% with .212 ISO and .351 wOBA
Kinsler: 9.8 BB% and 12.1 K% with .189 ISO and .355 wOBA
Sanders: 9.6 BB% and 22.9 K% with .220 ISO and .357 wOBA

Gant and Sanders are close enough — not super close, mind you, but close enough — but Kinsler stands out as being a little more prone to contact while having less raw power. That sounds more like Ervin from a scouting standpoint, at least to me. Each player’s ultimate production matched up quite nicely, but those are interesting differences to keep in mind. Getting too deep into amateur stats is often a mistake — I feel like I do it as much as just about anybody, and I’d like to think I tow the line between stats/scouting reports carefully — so take Ervin’s 2013 walk and strikeout numbers (so far) with a grain of salt: 16.6 BB% and 12.2 K%. Far from a perfect match, but the strikeout numbers match better with Kinsler than the others. Not for nothing, but Kinsler’s draft season’s numbers (9.9 BB% and 11.6 K%) align pretty damn well with what he’s done as a big leaguer. Weird and probably meaningless and in no way predictive for Ervin’s career, but there it is.

Anyway, I like the Kinsler comp by Perfect Game so much that I did a little digging on similar players/prospect from recent history. In what was far from an exhaustive search of all comparable talents, one player’s scouting and statistical profile jumped off the page to me. This comp is pretty far out there, so don’t say I didn’t warn you when you find yourself shaking your head while reading. Before we get to that, a quick tangent…

I’m sure smart guys have already done studies on stuff like this, but the correlation between minor league stats and big league stats is fascinating to me. There are so many external factors (age, league, park factors, etc.) to take into account that it isn’t reasonable to expect any breakthrough finding (e.g. statistic X is the best indicator of success or X% remains constant throughout a player’s minor league progression), but it still amazes me when players have numbers in the minors that wind up matching up perfectly with their major league production. Long story short: Alex Ochoa hit .289/.354/.414 (.768 OPS) in the minors. In the bigs, he hit .279/.344/.422 (.766 OPS). That’s a little freaky, right? Any age, any environment, any level of competition = same rate of production.

The tangent may be over, but the Alex Ochoa talk is just beginning. That would be a great tag line for the site if I ever hit it big. I oh so subtly dropped Ochoa into that tangent only to now reveal that it is none other than former Oriole and Met top prospect Alex Ochoa who reminds me of what I think Phillip Ervin may become. First, the scouting report via a June 14, 1995 article in the Baltimore Sun written by Kent Baker. Why they used a rating scale from 1 to 5, I’ll never know. Here’s how they graded his five tools:

Hitting: 5. An excellent gap-to-gap hitter. Has a solid line-drive stroke but also can turn on inside pitches and pull them. Is strong at taking pitches away from him to right-center.

Power: 4 1/2 . Not a pure slugger but has the strength to clear the fences. Projects to 15- to 20-home run production in the majors.

Speed: 4 1/2 . Has stolen 34 and 31 bases in two of his minor-league seasons. Knows when to advance from station to station.

Defense: 5. Has worked hard in this area and even took ground balls at third base when asked. A high school shortstop, he always has been good with grounders to the outfield and has improved in retreating on balls over his head.

Arm: 5 plus. The last generation raved about the great arms of Roberto Clemente and Rocky Colavito. Ochoa is in that class. Now that he has discovered when to use it and when not to and his accuracy has become pinpoint, there are no flaws.

Excellent gap-to-gap hitter. Solid line-drive stroke. Hmm, that sounds familiar. I actually have “hitter more than slugger” in my notes on Ervin. On Ochoa, it says “not a pure slugger but has the strength to clear the fences.” Projects to 15- to 20-home run production. Plus to plus-plus right field arm. Not a natural outfielder, but has improved. My notes on Ervin: “will take some questionable routes and fight some routine fly balls, but enough speed/instincts/coachability to stick in CF. Will be good RF otherwise with plenty of arm to handle the spot.” Hmm, indeed.

Now a look at the career numbers:

Ochoa: 8.5 BB% and 12.1 K% with .143 ISO and .336 wOBA

Fewer walks than Kinsler, but in the same neighborhood overall. The power also doesn’t really compare, but that’s likely true when stacking up Ervin with Kinsler as well. If you’re buying the Kinsler comp from PG, then there ought to be some validity to the Ochoa one as well, right? More numbers:

Ochoa (162 game average): .279/.344/.422 with 9 HR and 11 SB

Off the top, it’s a little bit of a mystery to me why Ochoa didn’t get more of a chance to hang around in the bigs. I vaguely remember him getting some decent money to go to Japan, but it shouldn’t have come to that. After settling in with the Brewers in 1999 (once some of his prospect sheen had worn off, a blessing in disguise for some players), the man did nothing but produce: 2.2 WAR in 1999, 2.4 WAR in 2000, 0.6 WAR in 2001 (this was probably his big chance, as he got by far the most PA of his career), and then 1.1 WAR in 2002. WAR isn’t the be-all, end-all, but the consistent positive scores do paint a pretty good picture of an average or better big league player in Ochoa, especially when you consider the tools that made him a top prospect were still a part of his game.

More relevant to our conversation is the realization that these numbers are a lot closer to Kotsay than Kinsler, Sanders, and Gant. Consider the above line a potential “worst case scenario” for Ervin’s big league career. Note the scare quotes: Ervin, and, any amateur prospect for that matter, have a real worst case scenario much closer to AA flameout than productive big league player with 807 games played in the big leagues under his belt. I hope that the high likelihood of any prospect crashing and burning can continue to be one of those known but not often said aspects of our draft discussion. Risk (i.e. how likely a prospect is to achieve meaningful professional success) is always a consideration when discussing a young player, so know that we’re operating under the assumption that these guys will do enough to keep advancing in pro ball.

If Kinsler is Ervin’s best case scenario ceiling, then Ochoa is his most realistic big league floor. Either way, I think we’re looking at a starting caliber outfielder who will give you value in a variety (speed and arm are both above-average; hit, power, and glove all at least average depending on the day) of ways. Selfishly, I can’t help but to translate his stock into the context of what I’m hoping to see the Phillies do at pick 16. I think there will be more enticing upside plays still on the board — Austin Wilson the first name to come to mind — and with a rare early-ish pick, upside is the way to go. That said, depending on how the board falls, I wouldn’t complain one bit if Ervin was the choice at 16. Middle of the first is likely his draft ceiling, and deservedly so.

College First Basemen to Know

30 Apr 2013 11:09 PM / 2 Comments on College First Basemen to Know

I hate having to preface posts with little updates about my life away from the site, but I ultimately prefer going this route than having to live with the guilt of not updating for multiple days on end. Last week’s excuse was a grad school paper hanging over my head; no sooner did that fifteen-page pile of words get turned in did I come down with a rare and not so beautiful case of double pink eye (love my job, but the threat of maladies like that are a clear downside). I’m not really the type to “get sick” and “stop working,” but, damn, it turns out your eyes are really important when it comes to keeping up with most day-to-day activities. Time spent working on a few projects for the site turned into time sitting around doing nothing but holding a warm compress to my face.

To make life a little simpler for me while I catch up, here’s a quick and dirty list of college first basemen that have caught my eye thus far. Same rules for the catching list last week apply: the list only includes players from the conferences I’ve profiled so far. That would be the Big 10, SEC, ACC, Big East, Ivy, Mountain West, WCC, Sun Belt, Pac 12, WAC, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, and Big 12.

I do promise to have any recent comment or email responded to by the end of the day on Wednesday.

New Mexico JR 1B DJ Peterson
Notre Dame JR 1B Eric Jagielo
Oregon JR 1B Ryon Healy
Notre Dame JR 1B Trey Mancini
Georgia Tech JR 1B Daniel Palka
South Alabama JR 1B Jordan Patterson
Vanderbilt JR 1B Conrad Gregor
Oregon State SR 1B Danny Hayes
Louisiana-Lafayette JR 1B Chase Compton
Washington State rJR 1B Adam Nelubowich
Cincinnati JR 1B Justin Glass
Wichita State rSR 1B Johnny Coy
Portland JR 1B Turner Gill
East Carolina JR 1B Chase McDonald
Florida SR 1B Vickash Ramjit
Marshall SR 1B Nathan Gomez
Rice JR 1B Michael Aquino
Louisville SR 1B Zak Wasserman
North Carolina SR 1B Cody Stubbs
Duke rSO 1B Chris Marconcini
Wake Forest rJR 1B Matt Conway
Maryland JR 1B Tim Kiene
Virginia rSR 1B Jared King
Auburn SR 1B Garrett Cooper
Sacramento State SR 1B Clay Cederquist
Dartmouth JR 1B Dustin Selzer

Let’s Talk College Catching

22 Apr 2013 1:05 AM / 8 Comments on Let’s Talk College Catching

1. Apologies for not being around much of late, but a handful of side projects and the seemingly constant stream of grad school research/paper writing has left me with little time to write for the site. As always, be assured that there’s been lots of updating of materials going on behind the scenes, so get excited for what I like to think is my annual strong content push in the weeks leading up to draft day.

2. Huge thank you to the two individuals who emailed me asking me, in so many words, if I was still in one piece after the recent attacks in Boston. I’ve obviously sent personal emails back — seriously, thanks again — but, egomaniacal fellow that I am, figured that if two strangers were concerned enough to ask then there might be one or two less vocal worriers out there as well. I’m good. My undergrad days in Boston are long gone and I’m a few hundred miles south now. Scary, unimaginably horrible stuff all the same, but I’m good.

3. Personal bookkeeping finally out of the way, how about a list? Here are some ground rules before this thing gets picked apart:

I’ve updated the list as much as possible based on any and all updated scouting information (note: this is still not perfect, as evidenced by the too high ranking of Matt Roberts and the too low ranking of Elvin Soto), but haven’t had a chance to run each prospect’s 2013 numbers through any kind of meaningful statistical testing. Because of this, I strongly considered scrapping the whole ranking aspects of the list and going with a generic alphabetized “follow list” like I’ve done in the past. I’m going with the tentatively ranked list for now because I do think it shows a decent snapshot of where certain players were ranked by me heading into the season.

I’m happy to answer any specific questions and provide any answers about forthcoming changes (e.g. Roberts down, Soto up) in the comments or via email. I’m also planning on slotting in players from elsewhere around college ball, including the juco ranks, in the coming days.

California JR C Andrew Knapp
Mississippi JR C Stuart Turner
LSU JR C Tyler Ross
North Carolina JR C Matt Roberts
New Mexico SR C Mitchell Garver
Texas JR C Jacob Felts
Dartmouth JR C Jeff Keller
Vanderbilt JR C Spencer Navin
Auburn JR C Blake Austin
Loyola Marymount SR C Colton Plaia
North Carolina JR C Brian Holberton
Air Force SR C Garrett Custons
Oregon State JR C Jake Rodriguez
Washington State JR C Collin Slaybaugh
San Diego SR C Dillon Haupt
Arizona State SR C Max Rossiter
Southern California JR C Jake Hernandez
Louisville JR C Kyle Gibson
Pittsburgh SO C Elvin Soto
Fresno State SR C Austin Wynns
Virginia Tech rJR C Chad Morgan
Cal State Bakersfield JR C Cael Brockmeyer
Duke SR C Jeff Kremer
Rutgers SR C Jeff Melillo
Fresno State rSR C Trent Garrison
Missouri State SR C Luke Voit
Missouri JR C Dylan Kelly
Illinois State JR C Mike Hollenbeck
Bradley JR C Austin Jarvis
Georgia SR C Brett DeLoach
Mississippi State SR C Mitch Slauter
Arkansas JR C Jake Wise
Mississippi JR C Will Allen
Alabama JR C Wade Wass
Wake Forest SR C Brett Armour
St. John’s JR C Frank Schwindel
Florida Atlantic SR C Mike Spano
Central Florida SR C Ryan Breen
Texas State rJR C Tyler Pearson
Louisiana Tech rJR C Kyle Arnsberg
Texas State SR C Andrew Stumph
Dallas Baptist SR C Duncan McAlpine
Baylor SR C Nathan Orf
Kansas JR C Kai’ana Eldredge
South Carolina SR C Dante Rosenberg

If you’ve made it this far, thanks. Here’s a quick idea of what the immediate future holds. First, I’ve got a paper that needs to be written between now and Thursday. Once that’s out of the way, things will pick up for a bit. In the meantime, I’m hoping to a) continue updating the college catcher rankings and perhaps move on to other positions, b) finish my thoughts on the SEC, and c) do a little MLB Draft/NFL Draft mock draft remix before Thursday’s first round.

Potpourri

12 Apr 2013 1:04 PM / 3 Comments on Potpourri

1. I think the ongoing Austin Meadows vs Clint Frazier debate remains too close to call. I wish I had a stronger opinion on the matter than that weak take, but it’s the truth – I won’t pretend that one has the clear cut advantage at this point because they really are as close as it gets. I do think the two guys have gotten engulfed in a little bit of easy narrative typecasting — not that there’s anything wrong with that as it is a narrative (Meadows is tools/upside/flash, Frazier is advanced/hitter-ish/red-haired) that I have used to describe the two to the bored people in real life who can’t run away in time — but the differences between Meadows and Frazier are really what makes the comparison so damn compelling. It’s worth noting that the the one obvious edge often given to Meadows — the combination of speed/athleticism/instincts that presently allows him to effectively roam center field — isn’t as much of a sure thing going forward as the narrative may have you believe. If you can guarantee Meadows will play an above-average center through at least his late-20s, then I think he’s the pick. If both are right fielders professionally, then the door is very clearly open for fans of Frazier to proclaim him the best high school hitter in all the land.

Also, very important hair comp that came to me at the ballpark watching Phils/Mets on Wednesday: Frazier is Justin Turner 2.0. This realization helped me relate the draft, a topic I rarely broach in real life despite what I may have written earlier, to my old man. “There’s a high school guy from Georgia in this year’s draft who should go in the first few picks with hair that looks a lot like that (points to Phan-A-Vision when Turner was announced as a pinch-hitter).” The last time I brought up the draft to my dad was when talking about Nick Noonan’s Utley-like swing many years ago. Pretty sure my Frazier/Turner comp will stand the test of time a little better.

2. One thing that I don’t think has been discussed enough (by me, mostly) with respect to this specific draft class is the depth of quality prep arms likely to be available outside of the first round. I know, I know…with so many available arms and so many different team scouting perspectives on pitching, there’s never a bad year for prep pitching. We’re talking guys like Kaminsky, Clarkin, Krook, Brentz, Gonsalves, Wesely, Williams, Puk, Kohler, Alexander, Keys, McKinney, Taylor, Green, Burnett, Allen, Kilichowski, Moss, Bowden, Flores, Brady, Farmer, Jackson, Rogers, Wright, Gilson, Nicely…and those are just a fraction of the lefthanders with top ten round draftable stuff. Typing out the names of the righties would take all weekend. I’m guilty of not writing enough about high school guys, especially the non-first round prospects, so I’ll do what I can to shift the focus on some of the mid- to late-round potential steal types over the coming weeks.

3. I really, really wanted to do a mock this year. It’s been a few years since my last one and I’ve grown antsy. I started to write one on New Year’s Day, but scrapped it in favor of a few other more pressing projects. Long-time readers of the site know my stance on mocks by now: outside of Jim Callis’, mocks as predictive tools are pointless. That doesn’t mean I don’t love them, of course. Mocks are a lot of fun, and, when treated right, can be a great way to learn about the draft’s top players. Mocks can also serve as an exercise in recalibrating one’s self with the pro game. You can’t discuss Houston’s pick without going into their most recent draft classes, their current big league setup, and, most importantly, the emerging talent biding time down in the farm. Well, I guess you can just write “Houston – Mark Appel” and call it a day, but what’s the fun in that? Long story short, I may yet do a mock, but I already feel we’re too late in the process to make it worth the while. Since my mocks aren’t based on real sources — Jim Callis, I ain’t — they read best before teams begin to make their real deal short lists for each pick. For fun, here were some of the high notes from that 1/1/13 mock…again, this is NOT a current mock (note the dated draft order in places) and shouldn’t be treated as such.

1. Houston Astros | Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea

2. Chicago Cubs | Arkansas JR RHP Ryne Stanek

3. Colorado Rockies | Grayson HS (GA) OF Austin Meadows

4. Minnesota Twins | Loganville HS (GA) OF Clint Frazier

5. Cleveland Indians | Stanford SR RHP Mark Appel

6. Miami Marlins | Lakewood HS (CA) SS JP Crawford

7. Boston Red Sox | Florida JR RHP Karsten Whitson

8. Kansas City Royals | Florida JR RHP Jonathan Crawford

9. Pittsburgh Pirates | Stanford JR OF Austin Wilson

10. Toronto Blue Jays | San Diego JR OF/3B Kris Bryant

11. New York Mets | Red Wing HS (MN) OF Ryan Boldt

12. Seattle Mariners | Kentwood HS (WA) C Reese McGuire

13. San Diego Padres | St. Pius HS (TX) RHP Kohl Stewart

14. Pittsburgh Pirates | New Castle HS (IN) OF Trey Ball

15. Arizona Diamondbacks | Gaither HS (FL) SS Oscar Mercado

16. Philadelphia Phillies | St. Joseph Regional HS (NJ) LHP Robert Kaminsky

17. Milwaukee Brewers | Mississippi JR RHP Bobby Wahl

18. Chicago White Sox | Terrebonne HS (LA) OF Justin Williams

19. Los Angeles Dodgers | Woodford County HS (KY) RHP Clinton Hollon

20. St. Louis Cardinals | Cathedral Catholic HS (CA) LHP Stephen Gonsalves

21. Detroit Tigers | North Carolina 3B Colin Moran

22. Tampa Rays | Junipero Serra HS (CA) 1B Dominic Smith

23. Baltimore Orioles | Fresno State OF Aaron Judge

24. Texas Rangers | Riverwood HS (GA) OF Terry McClure

25. Oakland Athletics | James Madison HS (VA) SS/3B Andy McGuire

26. San Francisco Giants | Washington HS (IA) LHP AJ Puk

27. New York Yankees | St. Thomas HS (TX) 3B Cavan Biggio

28. Cincinnati Reds | Gonzaga LHP Marco Gonzales

29. Washington Nationals | Riverdale Baptist HS (MD) OF Matthew McPhearson

Supplemental First Round

30. St. Louis Cardinals | LSU SS/OF JaCoby Jones

31. Tampa Rays | Wenatchee HS (WA) RHP Dustin Driver

32. Texas Rangers | Yukon HS (OK) C Jon Denney

33. Atlanta Braves | Parkview HS (GA) OF Josh Hart

34. New York Yankees | LSU JR RHP Ryan Eades

35. New York Yankees | Venice HS (FL) 1B Nick Longhi

36. Washington Nationals | Elk Grove HS (CA) 1B Rowdy Tellez

Competitive Balance Lottery Round A

37. Kansas City Royals | Vanderbilt JR LHP Kevin Ziomek

38. Miami Marlins | Virginia Tech JR 3B Chad Pinder

39. Arizona Diamondbacks | Samford OF Phillip Ervin

40. Baltimore Orioles | James Madison HS (CA) LHP Ian Clarkin

41. Cincinnati Reds | King HS (FL) RHP Brett Morales

42. Detroit Tigers | Arlington County Day HS (FL) C Brian Navaretto

For good measure, here’s what I wrote up about the Houston pick…

1. Houston Astros | Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea

Houston has done an admirable job of restocking the organization’s hitting depth, but remains short on starting pitchers worth getting excited about. Lance McCullers, Mike Foltynewicz, and Nick Tropeano are a good foundation to build on, but that one starting pitching prospect who blends big league readiness with front of the rotation stuff remains elusive. I get that this could be said about 29 other farm systems — hey, did you know ace starting pitching prospects are rare? — but the lover of team building in me appreciates a projected rotation so much more when pitchers are slotted in where they “should” be. Sean Manaea as the future staff ace knocks all those other arms down a peg, and that’s something my brain appreciates. I know I shouldn’t get that caught up in Number 1 Starter, Number 2 Starter, Number 3 Starter, Number 4 Starter, Number 5 Starter designations, but it is something that helps increase my fandom rather than decrease my ability to discuss prospects. Anyway, if the Astros decide to hone in on pitching then it will almost certainly restrict their search to college arms, specifically the big three of Manaea, Ryne Stanek, and Mark Appel. I’ve gone back and forth on all three guys since last June, but am now pretty confident that Manaea is the pick to click. No pitcher in this class — or any others for the foreseeable future, despite what I’ve read a few fellow indy draft writers write about Carlos Rodon — compares to Stephen Strasburg, the ultimate in amateur pitching prospects in every possible way. However, if pressed to choose one name that even gave some kind of outside resemblance to the Nationals ace, I’d go Manaea. Part of the reason for such a silly comparison is based on each guy’s respective transition from soft bodied high school afterthought to top of the prospect class after just two years of collegiate life. Just another example of how often we, myself included, tend to overrate prospect accumulation while underrating player development.

Back to that hitting depth for a minute: potential above-average regulars Jonathan Singleton, George Springer, and Delino Deshields should join Jose Altuve in Houston within the next year or so. Last year’s draft prizes, Carlos Correa and Rio Ruiz, offer legit star upside. Lottery ticket Domingo Santana remains intriguing, as does the cadre of steady yet unspectacular future contributors like Tyler Heineman, Preston Tucker, Matt Dominguez, Nolan Fontana, Jonathan Villar, and Robbie Grossman. Adding a young outfielder like Austin Meadows or Clint Frazier would further strengthen the Astros collection of up the middle talent: you’d have MIFs Correa, Deshields, Altuve, Fontana, and Villar, as well as CFs Springer and Meadows/Frazier. That would be fun.

As I’ve said before, I have heard that certain high-ranking decision makers within the Astros front office like JP Crawford a ton. If I had to name one “sleeper” to go first overall — we’ll define sleeper as not being one of the big three college arms (Manaea, Stanek, Appel) nor one of the two hugely hyped prep outfielders (Meadows, Frazier) — then Crawford would be the easy pick. Choosing Correa and Crawford back-to-back with number one overall selections would be some kind of ballsy.

2013 MLB Draft March Madness Prospect Tournament

8 Apr 2013 12:45 AM / Leave a comment

Next year I’m going to give this idea the proper amount of effort it deserves. Until then, behold the half-baked 2013 MLB Draft March Madness Prospect Tournament unveiled just in time for March Madness to wrap up with tonight’s championship game. Seeds were determined by combing the lists compiled by the four current leaders in the industry: Baseball America, Perfect Game, ESPN (Keith Law), and Scout (Kiley McDaniel). The lists are obviously quite dated by now — Perfect Game is the oldest, and I started this before Baseball America’s most recent update — but what’s done is done. Besides (positive spin alert!), using older lists helped create some fun matchups, as well as demonstrate how much some prospects have risen or fallen in the past few months. Here we go…

West (Stanford) Region

1 Mark Appel
16 Karsten Whitson

8 Jordan Sheffield
9 Kevin Ziomek

5 Ryan Boldt
12 Billy McKinney

4 Oscar Mercado
13 Hunter Harvey

6 Phillip Ervin
11 Stephen Gonsalves

3 Colin Moran
14 Travis Demeritte

7 Chris Anderson
10 JaCoby Jones

2 Austin Wilson
15 Matt McPhearson

How interesting is that very first matchup? Prior to his injury, Whitson could have given Appel a run for his money. Well, I guess we could change that to “prior to his injury AND Mark Appel consistently showing off top of the rotation big league stuff every Friday all spring long,” but that would be a little wordy. Sheffield (future Vandy ace?) and Ziomek (current Vandy ace) give us a 8/9 “upset” made easy by Sheffield’s questionable health status. Boldt vs McKinney is a fascinating contrast of loud athletic tools (Boldt) and a bat-first prep corner outfield prospect (have heard “poor man’s Frazier” mentioned his way, though I’m not saying I endorse such talk). Mercado and Harvey give us what seems like a yearly tradition in the real deal NCAA tournament: a 4/13 upset. Talk about two players with respective arrows going the opposite directions there. I like Ervin over Gonsalvez, Moran over Demeritte (fun plus bat over plus glove battle there), Anderson over Jones, and Wilson, injured or not, over the stupid fast McPhearson.

***

South (SEC) Region

1 Ryne Stanek
16 Rowdy Tellez

8 Andrew Mitchell
9 Justin Williams

5 Bobby Wahl
12 Garret Williams

4 Reese McGuire
13 Aaron Blair

6 Ryan Eades
11 Matt Krook

3 Jonathon Crawford
14 AJ Puk

7 Eric Jagielo
10 Dustin Driver

2 Austin Meadows
15 Carlos Salazar

I swear I didn’t stack the deck to get so many big time SEC arms into one regional. Can’t say I’m too bummed out things worked out this way, though. Life is good for the SEC when it comes to most of these first round draws: Stanek whoops Tellez, Wahl topples Williams (lots of inconsistent stuff featured in that matchup), and Crawford (current Florida star) edges the underrated Puk (future Florida star?). The one matchup that gives me major pause is Eades vs Krook. A pairing that close calls for a breakdown:

Fastball: Crawford (90-94, 98) ties Krook (87-93, 95) with the latter evening things up thanks to his lefthandedness
Breaking Stuff: nasty mid-80s sliders for both, call it another tie
Changeup: big win for Crawford, who has an underrated mid-80s offering that takes care of Krook’s underdeveloped (i.e. I’ve got nothing on it) change
Size/Physical Projection/Future Role: Krook (6-4, 200) by virtue over Crawford (6-2, 200) getting dinged in the past for perhaps not having the body, arm action, and command to start in pro ball (not saying I agree)

I could keep going with categories, but it’s late so let’s call it for Krook by the skin of his teeth. Beyond the SEC, we’ll go with Mitchell over Williams (very, very close), McGuire over Blair (I just like McGuire too much, so don’t take this as a reflection on not liking Blair, who has been truly great this year), Driver over Jagielo (upside play), and Meadows over Salazar.

Midwest (Manaea) Region

1 Sean Manaea
16 Chris Okey

8 Andrew Thurman
9 Dillon Overton

5 Aaron Judge
12 Connor Jones

4 Kohl Stewart
13 Hunter Renfroe

6 Jonathan Gray
11 Andy McGuire

3 Dominic Smith
14 Chris Kohler

7 Ian Clarkin
10 Jason Hursh

2 JP Crawford
15 Conrad Gregor

This region should be proof enough that I didn’t game the results of the rankings to create interesting matchups. We’re going chalk all the way. I could maybe see arguments in favor of Jones over Judge (this goes against everything I’ll say in the next parenthetical distraction, but Jones may actually be a “safer” pick than Judge at this point) or Renfroe over Stewart (only if you a) are scared off by Stewart’s medicals/signability, or b) really don’t like risking high picks on risky high school pitchers). One nice thing about all the favorites moving on is that you get better quality matchups (in theory) in ensuing rounds. I, for one, love that Gray is lurking as a sixth seed…

***

East (because the last region gets stuck with an illogical geographical title) Region

1 Clint Frazier
16 Cavan Biggio

8 Rob Kaminsky
9 Michael Lorenzen

5 Marco Gonzales
12 Tom Windle

4 Trey Ball
13 AJ Vanegas

6 DJ Peterson
11 Colby Suggs

3 Jonathan Denney
14 Tucker Neuhaus

7 Trevor Williams
10 Braden Shipley

2 Kris Bryant
15 Hunter Green

Rob Kaminsky plays in the east, right? So the name isn’t that bad. I like the Jersey lefty over the endlessly frustrating Lorenzen. It probably doesn’t much matter as either is like a lamb to slaughter with Frazier looming large in round two. A part of me was hoping Vanegas would be a 16 seed, so we could pair him up against teammate Appel. As a 13 he’s plenty dangerous, but Ball is a touch too talented to make gambling on Vanegas a smart play. Peterson takes care of Suggs (wildly overrated, but that could just be my anti-reliever bias showing), Denney smacks down helium guy Neuhaus, and Bryant makes quick work of the interesting Green.

Speaking of Green, I would imagine anybody reading over 1,000 words on a weird draft related piece like this knows all of the names featured above. The one exception may be the little hyped prep lefty from Kentucky. Green already can hit the low-90s with his fastball and just oozes projection (gross, sorry) in his 6-4, 170 pound frame. He’s also one of the smarter young pitching minds in this class. I don’t remember which list liked him enough to get him into the tournament, but I think it was Law. Good name to know going forward.

The two unsettled matchups are our 5/12 and 7/10 contests. Shipley is on an entirely different level than Williams for me, but it stinks that an “upset” like that doesn’t carry any weight now that Shipley has emerged as a legitimate top ten threat. Gonzales vs Windle is worth a breakdown, right? Let’s close out the first round by stacking these two quality college lefthanders against one another in a blind test:

87-92 FB (94), above-average 78-84 SL (plus upside), average 80-85 CU (above-average upside), good athlete, 6-4, 210 pounds

2011: 7.62 K/9 | 41.1 IP
2012: 8.27 K/9 | 3.70 BB/9 | 4.20 FIP | 41.1 IP
2013: 8.10 K/9 | 1.62 BB/9 | 3.47 FIP | 50 IP

87-91 FB (92), average 75-81 CB, plus 77-82 circle CU, plus athlete, 6-1, 185 pounds

2011: 7.80 K/9 | 105 IP
2012: 9.13 K/9 | 2.14 BB/9 | 3.34 FIP | 92.2 IP
2013: 8.12 K/9 | 1.76 BB/9 | 3.26 FIP | 51 IP

Wow, that’s close. I need to sleep on that one…

Big Board: Quick 2013 MLB Draft Top Twenty

4 Apr 2013 11:02 PM / 2 Comments on Big Board: Quick 2013 MLB Draft Top Twenty

Today is the home opener for my hometown team. Said team picks 16th in the 2013 MLB Draft. Putting those two thoughts together equals the following thought experiment. Don’t consider this a real deal big board, but rather a quick and dirty look at which players I like best as a fan and not as a nobody internet draft guy. Not a huge distinction between the two, but just enough that I’m not comfortable calling this anything but unofficial. So, here’s my official unofficial top twenty for the 2013 MLB Draft, in no particular order.
This first tier is full of no-brainers. I’d be weak in the knees if any of these pitchers were still on the board at 16:

Stanford RHP Mark Appel
Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray
Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea
Nevada RHP Braden Shipley
Arkansas RHP Ryne Stanek
RHP Kohl Stewart (St. Pius X HS, Texas)

Same goes for any scenario that gets one of these five bats to the mid-teens:

OF Austin Meadows (Grayson HS, Georgia)
San Diego OF/3B Kris Bryant
OF Clint Frazier (Loganville HS, Georgia)
C Reese McGuire (Kentwood HS, Washington)
C Jon Denney (Yukon HS, Oklahoma)

Give me one of those eleven prospects on the draft’s first night and I’d consider it a major, major win for my favorite team. Realistically, I think there’s a shot that one or more of the three S pitchers (Stanek, Stewart, Shipley) falls. Stanek’s inconsistent spring, Stewart’s health questions, and the chance the excitement over Shipley’s newness as a top ten prospect wears off are all reasons each could slide. Admittedly, that last one is a stretch, though I think it is fair to wonder if the hype that Shipley is getting by the industry leaders is a reflection of what big league clubs are saying (good news for Shipley if so) or something else altogether. I think it’s the former, and not just because I was hyping him up back in February. He’s really good, and I’d love to get him at 16.

Of the position players, it seems clear that Meadows, Bryant, and Frazier are all locks to be long gone. That leaves the two prep catchers. It actually wouldn’t surprise me if both were still on the board at 16. This wouldn’t occur because of teams doubting their talent, but rather because of the spotty at best history of first round prep catchers. Fair or not, I think teams are wary of young catching in a way they aren’t like at any other position. For the record, I remain in the shrinking group that still prefers McGuire to Denney.

We now have 11 players I’d be ecstatic to land at pick 16. The next group is a lot more fluid, so I expanded it a bit to find the best possible fits in terms of physical talent, performance, and projection.

Stanford OF Austin Wilson
North Carolina 3B Colin Moran
SS JP Crawford (Lakewood HS, California)
OF Ryan Boldt (Red Wing HS, Minnesota)
1B Dominic Smith (Serra HS, California)
Jacksonville RHP Chris Anderson
LSU RHP Ryan Eades
LHP Ian Clarkin (Madison HS, California)
RHP Hunter Harvey (Bandys HS, North Carolina)

I only need five more names to get to 16, but I’m cheating here and bringing the total up to an even 20. If healthy all year, Austin Wilson wouldn’t be in the conversation as a realistic pick at 16. Heck, a productive return to the field – he’s rumored to be back this weekend, so stay tuned for that – could make this mid-first round talk for Wilson seem silly in a month. If he does fall on draft day, I doubt he falls all that far. The mid- to late-first round is the perfect spot to take chances on prospects that are fading due to reasons having nothing to do with ability. The Phillies have had great success going this route (Hamels, Drabek, Savery…well, 2 out of 3 ain’t bad), so it wouldn’t be totally out of character to see Wilson as a possibility if he slides.

Colin Moran is my pick for this year’s trendy prospect to bash (no power, stinks on defense, Ackley’s failings somehow apply to him) in the weeks leading up to the draft, but I’m willing to ride with him as a future above-average big league regular. The bats of Crawford and Boldt alone may not be thrilling, but they each bring enough to the table to profile as everyday players at positions that aren’t easy to fill. Smith is the opposite: pretty darn thrilling bat, but more or less locked into first base. I’m not alone in judging bat-first prospects very harshly, so it should say something about Smith’s upside with the stick that I’m good with him being the Phillies first pick, Either Chris Anderson or Ryan Eades would work for me as both have deep, effective repertoires. Clarkin (seriously love his CB) and Harvey (three above-average pitches and crazy athleticism) also each have front of the rotation stuff. There are other names I could get behind at 16 – Trey Ball, Matt Krook, Oscar Mercado, to name three – but these 20 are currently my most coveted draft prospects.

2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Big Ten

3 Apr 2013 12:46 AM / 2 Comments on 2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Big Ten

I have some stray SEC thoughts, plus a tiered first round big board coming up over the next few days. Good times ahead. As for the mountain of text below, well, I’ll just say the position players in the Big Ten are a group only a mother could love. Some interesting arms led by a potential first day lefty, but all in all not a thrilling collection of talent. How’s that for a hard sell? Now read it!

Bold = locks to be drafted
Italics = definite maybes
Underlined = possible risers
Plain text = long shots

C

Nebraska SO C Tanner Lubach
Minnesota JR C Matt Halloran
Iowa SR C Dan Sheppard
Michigan State JR C John Martinez
Michigan rJR C John DiLaura
Illinois rSO C Kelly Norris-Jones
Michigan State JR C Joel Fisher
Purdue JR C Sean McHugh
Michigan rJR C Zach Johnson
Penn State JR C Alex Farkes
Nebraska JR C Corey Stringer
Minnesota rSR C Kurt Schlangen

I can talk/write a lot – some would say too much – but I’ve got very little to say about this group of catching prospects. Lubach was a guy that I was told had the highest ceiling of any draft-eligible Big Ten catcher, and Halloran and Sheppard have gotten some buzz for their work behind the plate. That’s the nice, scout-approved news. The numbers tell a different story. Of the dozen names listed above, I think you can charitably call nine of the twelve as having below-average starts to the 2013 season. Schlangen has been decent. Fisher and McHugh, both players designated as C/1B in my notes, are the only two “catchers” that have gotten off to strong statistical starts, and McHugh’s “hot start” is only passable when viewed through the prism of park/schedule adjustments. For anybody who cries “small sample size,” well, true enough. However, a quick look back at last year reveals a larger pattern of underwhelming performance across the board. Halloran was good (.340/.415/.440) and Martinez solid (.317/.385/.430), but only McHugh has been a consistent collegiate performer. Long story short, the Big Ten likely doesn’t have a 2013 MLB Draft prospect who currently dons the tools of ignorance.

1B

Minnesota JR 1B Alex LaShomb
Michigan JR 1B Brett Winger
Northwestern SR 1B Jack Havey

Three big guys, three non-prospects. Havey, the leanest of the three (6-3, 200 pounds), is off to the best start this spring of the group.

2B

Northwestern JR 2B Kyle Ruchim
Indiana SR 2B Michael Basil
Ohio State rSR 2B Ryan Cypret
Iowa rSO 2B Jake Mangler
Penn State SR 2B Luis Montesinos

I rarely cut players from my lists after I’ve committed to them either because of a nice scouting note or the achievement of certain statistical benchmarks (see the catching list if you don’t believe me), but I dropped a few Big Ten second basemen from the original draft because including them would be a stretch that I’m not yet able to make. After a few more months of yoga, maybe…

It was all doom and gloom when it came time to editing my lists. I also made a last minute decision to switch Kyle Ruchim from the pitching list to this one. He’s excelled in both areas as a Wildcat (pitching: 12.05 K/9 in 2011, 11.57 K/9 in 2012, 9.53 K/9 so far in 2013), but, fair or not, he’d face an uphill battle as a 5-10, 180 pound righthanded reliever if limited to the mound as a pro. As a second baseman, he gives you a really steady glove, average speed, enough power to the gaps to keep pitchers honest (and subsequently help him maintain strong BB/K numbers), and, as you’d expect from a guy once clocked at 93 MPH, a strong arm. Finding underrated two-way college talent like Ruchim is what makes doing this conference draft previews worth it for me. Remember his name on draft day.

3B

Indiana JR 3B Dustin DeMuth
Illinois rJR 3B Jordan Parr
Ohio State rSR 3B Brad Hallberg
Minnesota SR 3B Ryan Abrahamson

Finally, a decent prospect group to talk about. Dustin DeMuth is a player that I had multiple Midwest contacts tell me was a big-time sleeper to watch coming into the season. I’d say so far, so good. DeMuth has gone out and done a lot of the things he was expected to do: hit with power, field his position well, and show a far more aggressive than ideal approach at the plate. The first two are reasons to be excited about him in an intriguing ball of clay to mold kind of way, especially if a team thinks they can curtail, or, at worst, more positively channel his hacktastic ways. Parr is another good athlete with above-average raw power who, like DeMuth, brings the added dimension of defensive versatility. Hallberg is a steady college performer who may get a late look as an organizational guy. Abrahamson has an intriguing frame (6-4, 190 pounds) and some talent yet to be fully tapped.

SS

Ohio State SR SS Kirby Pellant
Illinois JR SS Thomas Lindauer
Minnesota rSO SS Michael Handel
Minnesota rSR SS Troy Larson

Pellant does enough well across the board (speed, throw, footwork) that he should get a look as a mid- to late-round potential utility infielder option. It’s an imperfect comp, but consider Pellant somewhat similar to Adam Frazier but with a lesser stick. Lindauer and Handel are probably looking at a future similar to Larson’s present, i.e. hoping for a late-round senior sign selection.

OF

Michigan JR OF Michael O’Neill
Michigan SR OF Patrick Biondi
Minnesota rJR OF Dan Olinger
Nebraska SR OF Chad Christensen
Nebraska SR OF Josh Scheffert
Minnesota JR OF Bobby Juan
Michigan State SR OF Jordan Keur
Illinois SR OF Justin Parr
Purdue SR OF Stephen Talbott
Nebraska JR OF Mike Pritchard
Michigan State SO OF Jimmy Pickens
Nebraska rJR OF Kash Kalkowski
Nebraska SR OF Rich Sanguinetti
Minnesota SR OF Andy Henkemeyer
Indiana SR OF Justin Cureton
Illinois SR OF Davis Hendrickson
Ohio State JR OF Tim Wetzel
Ohio State rJR OF Mike Carroll
Penn State rJR OF Steve Snyder
Iowa JR OF Taylor Zeutenhorst

Michael O’Neill hasn’t gotten the degree of draft buzz yet that I expect we’ll see build over the next few weeks, but he’s a really intriguing talent with big league tools. I’m hoping to have more on him in the not too distant future; until then, let me just say that if I was the one doing the picking, O’Neill would terrify me as a potential top three round pick. Here are some choice snippets from what Baseball America has to say about the 6-2, 200ish pound righthanded hitting outfielder for Michigan:

“excellent athlete”
“best tool is his speed”
“well above-average runner”
“should hit for average because of a smooth stroke”
“average power”
“average center fielder”
“arm is a tick above average”
“isn’t particularly polished for a college draftee”

The big worry about this player is his lack of plate discipline. Striking out 1.65 times for every BB as an amateur isn’t a good thing. Waaaaaait, a second here. Were we talking about Michael O’Neill here? Whoops. All of the above is about 2010 second round pick Ryan LaMarre. I’m so tricky! Sure, all of the above also applies to O’Neill with the one notable exception being his ever more concerning lack of plate discipline (3.04 K/BB). It should also be noted that O’Neill’s swing, a little on the long and clunky side, hasn’t garnered as many favorable reviews as LaMarre’s once did. Consider me much closer to “like” than “love” when it comes to O”Neill (I prefer him to LaMarre, if that means anything to you), and even that may be generous at this point. The tools are loud and he could succeed in the right environment (patience will be key with him from a developmental standpoint), but he’ll wind up far lower on my rankings than he’ll fall on the industry leaders big boards.

After O’Neill the race for second Big Ten outfield prospect drafted looks as tight as tight can be. His Michigan teammate Pat Biondi is as good a name as any to slot into spot number two. He’s not a star nor does he give off a “future starter” vibe, but his speed, range, and pesky on-base skills and bat control should give him a chance to make it as a handy backup in time. Olinger has a nice looking swing, decent power, and a good approach, but no carrying tool that would make him a potential regular. Chad Christensen looks great on paper – speed, pop, all kinds of defensive flexibility – but issues with an all-or-nothing approach to hitting persist. Same could be said for his Nebraska teammate Kash Kalkowski. One name to watch is Bobby Juan, especially if a team makes the decision to stick his plus arm on the mound full-time.

Minnesota JR LHP Tom Windle
Ohio State JR RHP Josh Dezse
Minnesota JR LHP DJ Snelten
Purdue rJR RHP Brad Schreiber
Michigan State JR RHP David Garner
Northwestern SR RHP Luke Farrell
Indiana JR LHP Joey DeNato
Ohio State rSR RHP Brad Goldberg
Ohio State JR RHP Jaron Long
Illinois rSO RHP Reid Roper
Indiana rSO RHP Aaron Slegers
Nebraska SR RHP Kyle Hander
Ohio State SR RHP Brett McKinney
Northwestern rSR RHP Zach Morton
Ohio State JR RHP Greg Greve
Penn State rSR RHP David Walkling
Illinois SR RHP Kevin Johnson
Iowa SR LHP Matt Dermody
Penn State JR LHP Greg Welsh
Indiana JR LHP Brian Korte
Michigan JR RHP Alex Lakatos
Minnesota rJR RHP Alex Tukey
Nebraska JR RHP Brandon Pierce
Illinois JR RHP Ronnie Muck
Michigan State JR LHP Jeff Kinley
Michigan SR RHP Ben Ballantine
Michigan State rJR RHP Michael Theodore
Michigan SR RHP Kyle Clark
Minnesota SR RHP Billy Soule
Michigan State SR RHP Andrew Waszak
Minnesota SR RHP Drew Ghelfi
Michigan rJR LHP Logan McAnallen
Michigan State SR LHP Trey Popp
Penn State SR RHP Neal Herring
Indiana JR RHP Matt Dearden
Northwestern JR RHP Ethan Bramschreiber
Minnesota JR RHP Alec Crawford
Nebraska JR LHP Tyler King
Northwestern JR LHP Dan Tyson
Illinois rSR RHP Bryan Roberts
Nebraska SR RHP Dylan Vogt
Indiana JR RHP Ryan Halstead
Northwestern JR RHP Jack Quigley
Penn State SR RHP Steven Hill
Purdue rSR RHP Robert Ramer
Ohio State SR LHP Brian King
Illinois rSO RHP Drasen Johnson
Nebraska JR RHP Christian Deleon
Nebraska JR LHP Zach Hirsch
Nebraska SR RHP Tyler Niederklein
Penn State rSO RHP TJ Jann
Illinois rSO LHP Rob McDonnell

Tom Windle isn’t this year’s sexiest draft prospect, but he still stands a fine chance of making it as a sturdy back of the rotation option in short order. His 87-92 (93-94) fastball has a ton of natural movement, he can spin two average or better breaking balls (way more 78-84 sliders than curves, and that’s a good thing – the slider is one of my favorite singular pitches of this class), and an improved yet still underdeveloped mid-80s changeup. This is a forced comp and I apologize in advance, but I see a little bit of Mike Minor minus the nasty changeup when I watch Windle. Other, perhaps better comparisons: Clayton Richard (but lighter) and Wade Miley (but taller). Those last two comps work pretty darn well from cumulative stuff standpoints, I think. In fact, put the three guys in a blender (note: not literally, they’d die) and you wind up with a delicious Tom Windle cocktail.

Josh Dezse hasn’t pitched this year due to injury, but fits in as a high-level follow the minute he steps back on the mound. One sentence doesn’t really do Dezse’s upside credit. Nor does that second sentence, come to think of it. A scout before the year told me he thought Desze looked like the second coming of Tom Wilhelmsen on the mound at times last season. Windle’s teammate DJ Snelten has just recently returned from injury; his first two years weren’t as productive as you’d expect from a guy with stuff good enough to start one day at the big league level. Brad Schreiber has been thrown back into the mix after missing all of last year thanks to Tommy John surgery. He still flashes back of the bullpen type stuff, but inconsistent control remains his bugaboo.

Now that the season has started I feel guilty if I don’t at least peruse the current numbers before publishing these conference follow lists. I don’t put a ton of stock on about a half of a season’s worth of data, but recent performances, whether positive or negative, can sometimes be a reflection of meaningful changes from a scouting perspective. Anyway, I happened to notice that I ranked Kevin Johnson and Matt Dermody back to back. Then I checked their 2013 numbers:

Johnson: 6.23 K/9 – 2.08 BB/9 – 3.79 FIP – 47.2 IP
Dermody: 6.27 K/9 – 2.09 BB/9 – 3.91 FIP – 47.1 IP

Neat!

You’d think I had some Northwestern connection (I don’t!) with the way I love Luke Farrell and Zach Morton. Farrell has always pitched well, has good size, and a fastball/curve/change trio that is good enough to get out big league hitters. I really like his fastball. Morton is the athlete I wish I could have been. Joey DeNato doesn’t have the same kind of physicality of the Northwestern guys, but darn if he doesn’t keep getting hitters out with his outstanding secondary stuff (change mostly). Jaron Long doesn’t quite have the same offspeed stuff, but he can still cutter teams to death when called upon. Brad Goldberg is a little like Brad Schreiber: big arm, intriguing upside, control remains a mess. I expected big things out of both Alex Lakatos (athleticism, size, heat, slider) and Brandon Pierce, but can’t say either has set the world on fire so far in 2013. Reid Roper is like Kyle Ruchim in that both are Big Ten 2B/RHP who do both jobs darn well. I like Roper a touch more on the mound than as a hitter, but can see why Illinois likes having his bat in the lineup. Fun player.

Kris Bryant

27 Mar 2013 3:18 PM / 3 Comments on Kris Bryant

I did my first and so far only public big board for the 2013 MLB Draft back in August 2012. I’d love to publish an updated version in the coming weeks, but feel like some annotation to the original ranking might make for some interesting content until the real deal big board is ready to see the light of day. Allow me to begin this look back with a rare display of personal horn tooting. My third overall prospect back in August stands out as one of the growing group of players that I believe Houston would be wise to consider with the first overall pick in June. Kris Bryant has been a damn exciting prospect for as long as I’ve run this site, but the leap he’s taken in 2013 deserves special attention. Before we get to what kind of prospect Bryant is today — spoiler alert: really damn exciting — let’s take a quick look back at his evolution as a prospect over the years.

Bryant was my 39th overall prospect in 2010, sixth among a solid group of third base prospects. The names that ranked ahead of him, in order: Nick Castellanos, Kaleb Cowart, Garin Cecchini, Rob Segedin, and Zack Cox. I prefer Bryant to Castellanos now, but it’s really close. The Tigers prospect gets the slight edge as a hitter, but Bryant wins in power, speed, and potential outfield glove. I’d also take him over Cowart and Cecchini without much consideration for the pro guys, though the likelihood that both stick at third — in theory — is much higher than whatever odds you want to put at Bryant remaining at the hot corner. The less said about Segedin and Cox as pros, the better off we’ll all be. Alright, fine, I can’t keep quiet: I’m still a believer in Segedin, though I admit I thought his transition to pro ball would be a lot smoother thus far. Anyway…

Despite the borderline first round ranking, I wasn’t a huge fan of Bryant back in his initial draft year. It bums me to admit that now, but it’s true. The Troy Glaus comparison was the trendy one at the time. I acknowledged that the comp had some merit, specifically when it came to body type, power upside (40+), and defensive skill set, but preferred to compare Bryant to slugging corner infielder Mark Reynolds. Reynolds is a complicated to evaluate player today, so it should be noted that the timing of the comparison makes a difference. Bryant’s initial draft year was after Reynolds’ best season in the bigs. His 2009: .260/.349/.543 with 44 HR and 24 SB. He also may have led the league with a few strikeouts or something (223, but who’s counting?), a factor that was considered in the comp when evaluating Bryant’s longer than you’d like high school swing. That concern has obviously gone by the wayside, thanks in part to some polishing of his swing but mostly because we (fine, me) severely underrated Bryant’s pitch recognition at the time.

I’ve written about Bryant twice this spring, so we’ll do a quick revisit to those quotes while we think of something new to say…

I currently have Kris Bryant listed as an OF/3B, a fairly significant change from the 3B/1B designation he entered school with. I’m totally buying in on Bryant’s athleticism playing in an outfield corner, at least for the first few years of his professional career. His body looks much better now than it ever did in high school — he managed to pull off the stronger yet leaner look that I’ve spent my whole adult life trying to figure out — and his arm is plenty strong enough to play in right field. There remains an above-average chance he sticks as a playable third baseman for the foreseeable future. His bat works anywhere, so determining his long-term defensive home is more of a matter of how great his future can possibly be than whether or not he will make it in pro ball. All of the standard developmental caveats apply, but the range of outcomes for Bryant look like this: upside of star-caliber player at third to steady, contributing bat at first, with something in-between those two if he winds up in right.

…

As I’ve said before, I think Bryant will be a well above-average regular in right field if given the chance. I wasn’t a huge fan of his when he was a senior in high school, but the improvement he’s shown since then — the only thing that looks better than his modified swing is his much sleeker physique — says something about what kind of prospect he is. As a draft prospect, think of him as a safer version of last year’s 39th overall pick, Joey Gallo. His old high school comp of Troy Glaus — one of those so obvious comps that you can’t help but see it — also makes a lot of sense as a pro ceiling. That’s big time.

The big amendment I’d make to those guesses is that I think Bryant has legitimate star upside as a right fielder. The power is real and spectacular, his hit tool is fine, his athleticism is above-average, his speed is average once underway (little bit of a slow starter, but forgivable for a big man), and there are no questions about his work ethic and attitude toward continual improvement on the diamond. Using that as a basic scouting template, it’s time to see if we can figure out a few comps to give us a frame of reference for the type of player Bryant can be.

In all honesty, it doesn’t take a genius to connect the dots between Bryant and another recent big name star college third baseman turned all-star big league outfielder. While his college coach Rich Hill (via Aaron Fitt at Baseball America) dug deep for a Pat Burrell comp (as well as a really intriguing Jayson Werth comp), I prefer the more recent vintage of former Hurricanes star Ryan Braun. Here’s a sampling from Baseball America’s early scouting report on Braun (with obligatory Burrell comp included):

Braun has all five tools. He works counts waiting for a pitch to hit, then has the bat speed-thanks to very quick hands-to hit for excellent power. His approach and power remind some in the organization of another former Miami third baseman, Pat Burrell. Braun is a plus runner, and his average arm strength should be enough for third base.

Swap out Braun’s plus speed and average arm for Bryant’s plus arm and average speed, and you’re really on to something here. Braun and Bryant match up fairly well from a scouting standpoint, but what about the numbers? So glad you asked.

Braun FR 2003: .364/.435/.665 – 28 BB/57 K – 13/17 SB – 242 AB
Bryant FR 2011: .365/.482/.599 33 BB/55 K – 18/21 SB – 197 AB

Very, very similar numbers, especially in terms of plate discipline. Also similar in speed (slight edge to Bryant) and power (edge to Braun).

Braun SO 2004: .335/.439/.606 – 24 BB/34 K – 21/27 SB – 155 AB
Bryant SO 2012: .366/.483/.671 – 39 BB/38 K – 9/12 SB – 213 AB

Bryant with the edge across the board as a hitter, only advantage for Braun coming via speed.

Braun JR 2005: .388/.471/.726 – 33 BB/39 K – 23/30 SB – 219 AB
Bryant JR 2013: .383/.554/.938 – 29 BB/16 K – 5/6 SB – 81 AB

Obviously too early in Bryant’s junior season to make a direct comparison, but things look good for the USD star. Clear advantages in plate discipline and power are mitigated only somewhat by Braun’s persistent speed advantage. It all makes sense when you look back at the early Braun scouting reports citing his plus speed. Braun is still an above-average runner (30+ steals the last two seasons) whose speed plays up thanks to savvy base running instincts. I see Bryant’s most likely stolen base totals rivaling those of Glaus, a big man who rumbled to three years of 10 or more from age 23-25 in his athletic prime.

If Braun doesn’t grab you as a comp, I think a second name ought to get your attention: how about fellow NL Central star Matt Holliday? A young Holliday works better in a straight body type comparison to Bryant, and I think Bryant’s statistical upside more closely mirrors what Holliday has done as a pro. Here’s BA on Holliday back in the day:

Strengths: Holliday’s ticket to the big leagues will be his bat. The ball jumps off it and he has legitimate power. Having grown up in an athletic family, he has maturity not normally found in a young player. He has four-tool potential, coming up a bit short in the speed category. Weaknesses: Holliday has to work on his quickness and lateral movement if he wants to become a big league third baseman. If not, first base or possibly left field could be his ticket. Giving up football should allow his body to loosen up, and could lead to the quickness scouts haven’t seen.

Braun, Holliday, or “I hate comps and I think your* a hack for using them!!!,” my basic point remains the same: we’re talking rarefied air with Bryant as a hitting prospect. Power, patience, and enough hit tool/speed/athleticism that you don’t worry too much about his aging curve and “old player skill set.” The aforementioned speed, athleticism, and plus arm strength should make him at least average in right field in time, though I suspect he’ll be better than that before long. For reference’s sake, going solely off similar players in Baseball America’s top 100, I’d put Bryant behind Oscar Taveras and Xander Bogaerts, comfortably ahead of Oswaldo Arcia (to be fair, even making this comp is a stretch as Arcia is probably the most dissimilar player to Bryant that I chose), a tick ahead of Courtney Hawkins, and right at the same level as Wil Myers, Nick Castellanos, and Jorge Soler. I think the total package is worthy of serious consideration at 1-1.

2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: SEC

25 Mar 2013 3:49 PM / Leave a comment

Why would I want to be signed out in the middle of typing up a post? I hate WordPress.

Bold = locks to be drafted
Italics = definite maybes
Underlined = possible risers
Plain text = long shots

C

Mississippi JR C Stuart Turner
LSU JR C Tyler Ross
Vanderbilt JR C Spencer Navin
Auburn JR C Blake Austin
Missouri JR C Dylan Kelly
Georgia SR C Brett DeLoach
Mississippi State SR C Mitch Slauter
Arkansas JR C Jake Wise
Mississippi JR C Will Allen
Alabama JR C Wade Wass
South Carolina SR C Dante Rosenberg
South Carolina rSO C Patrick Harrington
Tennessee JR C Ethan Bennett
Texas A&M JR C Troy Stein
Georgia JR C Brandon Stephens
Missouri SR C Scott Sommerfeld
Mississippi State SR C Nick Ammirati

I’ve done enough of these to know that this is an unusually difficult position group to sort out. Turner has emerged as the leader of the pack on the strength of his power upside, high baseball IQ, athleticism, and outstanding defensive skills. I thought I liked him a lot last year when he was at LSU-Eunice until I saw I had him down as the 51st best college catching prospect in the country. That’s actually not as low as it sounds – he’s in good company if you look back at the actual list – but you can take it to the bank that he won’t be anywhere near that low in 2013. Turner’s power and defense combination is enticing, but the latter should be no big surprise in the context of the SEC in 2013. Above-average or better defense behind the plate is the norm in the conference this year. You can rank Navin, Kelly, Slauter, Wise, and Rosenberg any way you desire in terms of overall package, but the fact that each will give you pro-caliber defense from the first day after signing contracts on is undeniable.

Ross is the position’s, and quite possibly conference’s, biggest enigma. I remember first taking a liking to Ross as a high school prospect because of the promise he had shown with the bat. After his freshman year at LSU, all the positive chatter surrounding his prospect stock was about his much improved defensive ability. His maintained those defensive gains through his sophomore season while also showing enough with the bat (.303/.369/.395 with an impressive 23 BB/22 K ratio in 185 AB) to have many projecting a breakout junior campaign. It’s obviously still quite early, but the initial returns aren’t exactly promising. Ross is still talented enough to warrant a high-level follow, but his status as a potential first round sleeper and top college catching prospect can be considered kaput. If Wade Wass didn’t have bad luck, he’d have no luck at all. If/when he ever gets back on the field for some consistent at bats, he’s one to watch as a possible draft riser.

1B

Vanderbilt JR 1B Conrad Gregor
Florida SR 1B Vickash Ramjit
Auburn SR 1B Garrett Cooper
South Carolina rJR 1B Brison Celek
Arkansas rSO 1B Eric Fisher
Alabama JR 1B Austen Smith
Tennessee JR 1B Scott Price
Mississippi State SR 1B Trey Porter
Missouri JR 1B Michael McGraw
Missouri SR 1B Gavin Stark

Conrad Gregor’s early season power outage obviously doesn’t concern me enough to knock him off his perch atop this particular list. Like many young hitters, Gregor can get himself into trouble chasing bad balls, but what separates him from the field is his exemplary bat speed and pitch recognition skills. Those skills should help him remain a legitimate prospect as a pro, especially if a club views him as a viable defender in an outfield corner. I’m sure it goes without saying at this point, but Gregor’s plate discipline (more walks than strikeouts all three years at Vandy) make him a personal favorite. Another favorite is Ramjit, an underrated player who combines strength, size, power, athleticism, and defense to create an interesting overall package. He’s also either a badass or a bully, depending on the source, so you can add whatever descriptive adjective – I like “fiery” — of your choosing to the mix. Cooper has a nice approach, intriguing size (6-6, 225 pounds), and impressive defensive chops. If there’s such a thing as a sleeper on a list like this, he’s my pick.

Nice things have been said about Celek and Fisher, but both seem like long shots to contribute much if anything in the pros. That should tell you all you need to know about the rest of the list, though it is worth noting that Scott Price has a surprisingly strong backing from those who see him play often. If Cooper was the original sleeper on this list, Price is the Rip Van Winkle.

2B

Kentucky JR 2B JT Riddle
Georgia SR 2B Kyle Farmer
Kentucky JR 2B Paul McConkey
Texas A&M JR 2B Charlie Curl
South Carolina SR 2B Chase Vergason
Alabama SR 2B Kenny Roberts
Arkansas SR 2B Jacob Mahan
Mississippi State JR 2B Brett Pirtle
Mississippi JR 2B Lance Wilson
LSU SR 2B Casey Yocom
Missouri JR 2B Kendal Keeton
Kentucky JR 2B Matt Reida
Tennessee JR 2B Taylor Smart
Missouri JR 2B Dillon Everett

I really, really like JT Riddle. Since stepping on campus, all he’s done is hit. I’m not sure I’m totally on board with this comp, but a scout friend said that he looks at Riddle and sees the kind of player that JaCoby Jones is supposed to be. Like Jones, Riddle is a really good athlete whom scouts are divided on when it comes to long-term defensive positioning (2B, SS, 3B, CF all in the running). As with Jones, I’m not sure where Riddle eventually winds up, but I do see him as a potentially valuable big league contributor in some capacity. Strong hit tool + mature approach + enough pop/speed + strong arm = good prospect. Math!

Farmer could be a utility infielder (2B/3B/SS) if all goes well. McConkey has some talent, but his swing at everything approach is less than ideal. The fact he can also play a solid 3B helps his cause. Curl looks the part, but whether or not he can actually hit remains an open discussion. As much as I appreciate his defensive versatility and general lunch pail approach to the game, I think we’ll have another college season after this one to keep the conversation going.

Notice that a trio of seniors (Vergason, Roberts, Mahan) hold down the beginning of the end of his year’s rankings. I would expect to see that next year as well, as some of the juniors near the bottom of list move up to the middle due to yearly prospect growth and attrition. That’s sort of the way college second base prospecting works.

3B

Arkansas JR 3B Dominic Ficociello
Auburn JR 3B Damek Tomscha
Mississippi JR 3B Preston Overbey
Florida rSO 3B Zack Powers
LSU JR 3B Christian Ibarra
Mississippi SR 3B Andrew Mistone
South Carolina SR 3B LB Dantzler
Missouri JR 3B Shane Segovia
Georgia SR 3B Curt Powell
Alabama SR 3B Brett Booth
Mississippi State JR 3B Daryl Norris
South Carolina JR 3B Erik Payne

We’d obviously know a good bit more about Ficociello if he could get on the field a little bit more, but his slow start to the 2013 season doesn’t obfuscate the notes accrued on him through his first two college years. It also doesn’t discredit the fine work he put in as a high school prospect: he was in the back of my 2010 top 50, directly ahead of impressive fellows Taijuan Walker and Zach Lee. I don’t view Ficociello as an elite 2013 draft prospect nor does he give off the appearance of a sure-fire future big league regular, but the tools he possesses and the growth he’s shown both give me a good feeling about his future. The first thing that stands out when watching Ficociello from a physical standpoint are his seemingly impossibly quick hands. Forgetting the draft writing thing for a second and speaking solely as a fan of the game, I’d submit that watching Ficociello swing a bat is an experience well worth checking out if at all possible. If his bat isn’t the quickest in the college game, then he’s certainly on the short list. The fair follow-up question, and one I’m in no way qualified to answer, is where is the power production? Ficociello has the frame (6-4, 185 pounds) to put on a little bit more heft, so you’d be selecting him early with the hope that blindingly quick wrists + increased physical strength = long-term power production. Opinions on his defense area all over the place. I’ve been told he’s “maybe a third basemen, likely a first basemen” and “he’s good enough at third that you wonder if he can play some second or short if asked.” He does have experience shifting around the infield; any way you look at that, that’s a plus. Again, I’m not a scout, but what I’ve seen firsthand of his defense at third has been encouraging. Count me in as somebody who likes his hit tool, loves his worth ethic (there’s no true measure for such a thing, but note the improvement in his BB/K numbers from his freshman to sophomore seasons – I was told that was all a major goal of Ficociello’s last year that he worked like crazy at improving), remains intrigued though cautiously so about his power upside, and believes his defense should be no worse than average at third, with the chance to be much better than that and/or solid at all four infield spots.

Since I wrote an entire post’s worth of words on Ficociello, I’ll do my best to be brief with some of the other third base names to know. Tomscha has been a favorite dating back to his high school days, especially after the Phillies drafted him with their last pick in 2010. There’s some question as to how much he’ll ever hit, but his secondary skills — power and patience — are strong, and his defense, athleticism, and arm strength are all top notch. It’s also nice that those last two things — athleticism and arm strength for those with short memories — could help him on the mound if that’s the direction his career eventually takes. Preston Overbey has always had the big-time tools that draw scouts in, but the maddeningly hacktastic approach that turns them off. He’d still be an interesting tools gamble in the mid-rounds, especially if the drafting team moves him to an outfield corner and tells him to just worry about hitting. I can’t quite put my finger on why I like Zack Powers so much, but I do. What he lacks in a carrying tool he makes up for with a steady all-around skill set. Ibarra’s defense is what initially drew me to him, but his strong performance at the plate so far for LSU is cause for more investigation as to what kind of stick he really has. After the top five we get a long run of potential late-round senior signs. Mistone (can also play 2B), Dantzler (power), and Segovia (exceptional defense) stand out as particularly intriguing.

SS

Mississippi State JR SS Adam Frazier
Vanderbilt rSO SS Joel McKeithan
Texas A&M SR SS Mikey Reynolds
Mississippi JR SS Austin Anderson
Auburn JR SS Dan Glevenyak
Florida SR SS Cody Dent

Not the toolsiest group of shortstop prospects you’ll come across, but a damn fine collection of ballplayers. Frazier typifies this better than anybody: if you like him — like I obviously do — then you like the approach first and foremost, but acknowledge that he may be stretched to hit for enough pop or show off enough athleticism and arm to prevent a move to second base. If he winds up as a poor man’s Nolan Fontana, another player I liked a lot, then you’ve at least got a potential backup big league middle infielder. Reynolds gives you a similar offensive package — maybe a tick better speed with less plate discipline — but a better chance to stay at shortstop in the pros. Anderson’s impressive start to the season has earned him a Tyler Smith (Oregon State) comp that I like a lot.

The one exception to the “low tools, high grit” (I couldn’t think of a better word than grit here and I hate myself for using it, but I think it gives you some idea what I mean when I use it so I’m keeping it) list is Joel McKeithan. Tools aren’t a worry with McKeithan: he can run, field, and hit for power better than any shortstop prospect in the conference. His issue has, and continues to be, staying on the field long enough to show off his ability. I’ve been a big McKeithan fan for a long time, but even I’m beginning to wonder if we’ll ever get the chance to see him at his best. Cody Dent plays college baseball for Florida. I’m not 100% sure what compelled me to include him on a prospect list. That’s about all I’m willing to say about him as a player. As always, no matter how ineffective a player is at this level, it should be noted that every player I’ve written about over the past four years is probably better at baseball than I am at any one singular thing.

OF

Mississippi State JR OF Hunter Renfroe
LSU JR OF Jacoby Jones
Vanderbilt JR OF Tony Kemp
Vanderbilt SR OF Connor Harrell
Vanderbilt SR OF Michael Yastrzemski
LSU rSR OF Raph Rhymes
LSU SR OF Mason Katz
Auburn SR OF Ryan Tella
Arkansas rJR OF Jacob Morris
Florida JR OF Taylor Ratliff
Mississippi SR OF Tanner Mathis
Texas A&M JR OF Krey Bratsen
Mississippi State JR OF CT Bradford
South Carolina JR OF Graham Saiko
Mississippi State rSO OF Demarcus Henderson
Auburn SR OF Cullen Wacker
Kentucky SR OF Zac Zellers
Missouri SR OF Dane Opel
Texas A&M SR OF Brandon Wood
Auburn JR OF Jay Gonzalez
Arkansas SR OF Matt Vinson
Texas A&M JR OF Jace Statum
Kentucky JR OF Lucas Witt
Mississippi SO OF Will Jamison
Georgia JR OF Conor Welton
Alabama SR OF Cameron Carlisle
Missouri SR OF Brannon Champagne
LSU SR OF Alex Edward
Vanderbilt rSR OF Jack Lupo
Auburn JR OF Hunter Kelley
LSU JR OF Sean McMullen
Mississippi State JR OF Derrick Armstrong
Alabama SR OF Andrew Miller

I just lost about 2,000 words breaking down the five potential first round SEC pitching prospects. Had scout quotes, stuff breakdowns, and statistical analysis. Pardon the language, but I fucking hate WordPress. There is clear separation with the top three, but I think Wahl and Crawford are interchangeable at four/five.

I also lost everything on the outfielders including a full breakdown of Renfroe v Jones. Hours of work gone in an instant.

P

Arkansas JR RHP Ryne Stanek
LSU JR RHP Ryan Eades
Vanderbilt JR LHP Kevin Ziomek
Mississippi JR RHP Bobby Wahl
Florida JR RHP Jonathon Crawford
Florida JR RHP Karsten Whitson
Mississippi JR RHP Mike Mayers
Arkansas JR RHP Barrett Astin
Arkansas JR RHP Colby Suggs
Kentucky JR LHP Corey Littrell
Florida JR LHP Daniel Gibson
Kentucky JR RHP Trevor Gott
Florida JR RHP Keenan Kish
Florida SO RHP John Magliozzi
Tennessee JR RHP Nick Williams
LSU JR RHP Nick Rumbelow
Mississippi State JR RHP Evan Mitchell
Auburn JR RHP Dillon Ortman
LSU JR RHP Will LaMarche
Vanderbilt JR RHP TJ Pecoraro
South Carolina JR RHP Forrest Koumas
Texas A&M SR RHP Kyle Martin
Missouri SR RHP Eric Anderson
LSU SR RHP Joey Bourgeois
LSU SO LHP Cody Glenn
Georgia SO RHP Luke Crumley
Tennessee SR RHP Zack Godley
LSU JR RHP Kurt McCune
Texas A&M rJR RHP Jason Jester
LSU JR RHP Joe Broussard
South Carolina SR LHP Tyler Webb
Mississippi rSO RHP Scott Weathersby
Mississippi JR RHP Aaron Greenwood
Mississippi SR RHP Brett Huber
Mississippi State SR RHP Kendall Graveman
Missouri JR LHP Rob Zastrynzny
Texas A&M rJR RHP Parker Ray
South Carolina SR LHP Nolan Belcher
Missouri rSO RHP Ryan Yuengel
Arkansas rSR LHP Trent Daniel
LSU SR LHP Chris Cotton
South Carolina SR RHP Colby Holmes
Georgia rJR LHP Patrick Boling
Mississippi rSR RHP Tanner Bailey
Arkansas SR LHP Randall Fant
Kentucky SR LHP Jerad Grundy
Auburn JR LHP Conner Kendrick
Vanderbilt JR LHP Steven Rice
Georgia SR LHP Blake Dieterich
Mississippi State rJR RHP Ben Bracewell
Texas A&M rJR RHP Rafael Pineda
LSU SR LHP Brett Bonvillain
Alabama SR RHP Trey Pilkington
Texas A&M rSO LHP Nathan Sorenson
Kentucky SR RHP Walter Wijas
Alabama rSO RHP Cary Baxter
Auburn JR LHP Will Kendall
Missouri JR RHP Keeton Steele
South Carolina SR LHP Adam Westmoreland
Georgia SR RHP Bryan Benzor
Mississippi State SR LHP Luis Pollorena
Vanderbilt rJR LHP Keenan Kolinsky
Texas A&M JR RHP Patrick Michon
Missouri rJR LHP Jake Walsh
Arkansas JR RHP Brandon Moore
Auburn JR RHP Jay Wade
Mississippi State rJR LHP Chad Girodo
Arkansas SR LHP Cade Lynch
Alabama rJR LHP Taylor Wolfe
Auburn JR LHP Michael O’Neal
Alabama SR RHP Tucker Hawley
Alabama SR RHP Charley Sullivan
Kentucky SO RHP Taylor Martin
Mississippi rSO RHP Casey Greene
South Carolina rSO RHP Drake Thomason
Arkansas JR RHP Jackson Lowery
Auburn JR RHP Terrance Dedrick

C

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South (SEC) Region

Midwest (Manaea) Region

East (because the last region gets stuck with an illogical geographical title) Region

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