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2011 MLB Draft – Top 30 College Catcher Follow List
I’m pretty sure this is my favorite list so far because of how wide open it is. For the sake of discussion, let’s say the consensus industry top five consists of Cron, O’Brien, Bandy, Susac, and McCann, in some order. Assuming that’s true, how much really separates the sixth best prospect (using my list as a guide, that could be Kometani, Casali, Maynard) from a prospect currently ranked in the mid- to late-teens (any of the smaller school prospects work, so insert names like Rosado, Dowd, and Escalante here)? Without getting too much into my relatively low ranking of McCann (for now), I can at least acknowledge that this general viewpoint (the lack of separation between any two prospects within the top 20ish) played a large role.
Judging catching is also fun because it opens up the always entertaining debate of floor vs. ceiling. Top ranked CJ Cron has a high ceiling (plus bat, capable catcher), but a low floor (if it turns out he can’t catch as a pro, will the bat play anywhere else?). Steve Rodriguez, a player ranked way down at 17th, has a much lower ceiling (plus defender, just enough bat to play everyday), but a more traditional backup catcher skill set that should serve him well when teams come looking for a cheap, defense-first backup catcher. What an interesting group of catchers…
- Utah JR C CJ Cron
- San Diego JR C Zach Kometani
- Bethune-Cookman JR C Peter O’Brien
- Arizona JR C Jett Bandy
- Vanderbilt SR C Curt Casali
- North Carolina State JR C Pratt Maynard
- North Carolina JR C Jacob Stallings
- Oregon State SO C Andrew Susac
- Oklahoma JR C Tyler Ogle
- Kentucky JR C Mike Williams
- Florida JR C Ben McMahan
- Pittsburgh SR C Kevan Smith
- California JR C Chadd Krist
- College of Charleston JR C Rob Kral
- LSU-Eunice FR C Hommy Rosado
- Arkansas JR C James McCann
- UCLA JR C Steve Rodriguez
- Franklin Pierce JR C Mike Dowd
- Chipola JC SO C Geno Escalante
- Central Florida JR C Beau Taylor
- Tulane JR C Jeremy Schaffer
- Samford JR C Brandon Miller
- Virginia JR C John Hicks
- Georgetown SR C Erick Fernandez
- Wofford JR C Mac Doyle
- Michigan JR C Coley Crank
- Western Kentucky SR C Matt Rice
- Virginia SR C Kenny Swab
- Auburn SR C Tony Caldwell
- Mississippi JR C Taylor Hightower
2011 MLB Draft – Top 30 College Catcher Follow List (Honorable Mentions)
Though generally regarded as one of the weakest, if not the weakest, position groups of this year’s college class, this year’s crop of college catching intrigues me all the same. What the 2011 catching group lacks in sure fire first round talent it makes up for it with tremendous depth. If it is a future backup catcher you want, this is the class for you. I think I’ve talked about this before, but my theory on what teams look for in a good backup catcher is simple. Teams look for a) all or nothing hitters with plus power, b) acclaimed defenders, typically with plus arms, and c) well-rounded prospects with scouting grades between 40 to 50 (roughly) in at least four of the five graded tools. I realize that describes a wide range of prospects, but it’s all I’ve got for now. Here are a few of the players who just missed the top 30…
- Cal State Bakersfield JR C Jeremy Rodriguez | tremendous plate discipline, but no standout physical tools
- Valdosta State JR C Christian Glisson | former Georgia Bulldog offers well-rounded tool set with solid defense, line drive producing swing, and enough power to keep pitchers honest
- North Carolina State SR C Chris Schaeffer | similar to Glisson, but swing will need some adjusting at next level
- Baylor JR C Joey Hainsfurther | converted infielder needs more experience behind plate; despite this, shows very good defensive tools
- Stetson JR C Nick Rickles | natural receiver, but bat speed has been questioned
- Mississippi SR C Miles Hamblin | once touted by me as a potential top three round candidate (Spring ’09), still shows above-average raw power and average defensive ability
- Pepperdine JR C Nate Johnson | possesses one of the sweetest swings in college ball
- Arizona State SR C Xorge Carrillo | heads into 2011 healthy and looking to get drafted for a fourth time
- East Carolina JR C Zach Wright | strong arm, untapped upside in bat
- Central Arizona SO C Max Rossiter | on short list of top 2011 junior college position players; like his bat more than fellow JC prospect Hornback
- San Jacinto SO C Ryan Hornback | on short list on top 2011 junior college position players; like his glove/arm more than fellow JC prospect Rossiter
- Fordham SR C Chris Walker | coming off really strong junior season (393/440/607 – 17 BB/16 K – 219 AB)
- Marshall SR C Victor Gomez | big fastball hitting power hitter with some questions about his eventual defensive home
- East Tennessee State JR C Derek Trent | quick bat and above-average athleticism
- James Madison JR C Jake Lowery | productive, good defender
- Illinois JR C Adam Davis | as much potential as any to rise up boards this spring; plus throwing arm with plus upside as defender
- Miami JR C David Villasuso | similar profile as Gomez, big power/strong arm/may or may not have hands to catch regularly
- Connecticut SR C Joe Pavone | outside candidate for spot near the bottom of top 30 before tearing his ACL last week
- Florida State SR C Rafael Lopez | excellent prep player who has been merely good collegiately
- Texas A&M SR C Kevin Gonzalez | outstanding defender with limited upside with bat; made great strides with stick in 2010, so continued development can’t be ruled out
2011 MLB Draft – Top 50 Middle Infield Prospects
Just like last Monday’s combined list of corner infielders, expect this time we do it up the middle. If I had to ballpark it, I’d say there could be about one dozen or so future big league starters and then a whole lot of potential utility guys. Here’s the plan for the week ahead:
Monday: Top 50 College MIF Ranking
Tuesday: Top 30 College C Follow List (Honorable Mentions)
Wednesday: Top 30 College C Follow List
Thursday: Top 30 College C Follow List Commentary
Friday: Wide open, but I was leaning towards cobbling together some kind of quick college baseball preview…
After all that is done, I’ll finally tackle college OFs, RHPs, and LHPs. I know things have gotten very list heavy around here of late, but we’re almost through. Until then, another list!
- North Carolina JR 2B Levi Michael
- Hawaii JR 2B Kolten Wong
- Clemson JR SS Brad Miller
- Arizona State JR 2B Zack MacPhee
- Coastal Carolina JR SS Taylor Motter
- St. John’s JR SS Joe Panik
- Connecticut JR SS Nick Ahmed
- Cal State Fullerton JR 2B Joe Terry
- Coastal Carolina JR 2B Tommy LaStella
- Louisville JR 2B Ryan Wright
- Michigan SO SS Derek Dennis
- Missouri State JR 2B Kevin Medrano
- UCLA JR SS Tyler Rahmatulla
- TCU JR SS Taylor Featherston
- Oregon JR SS KC Serna
- McNeese State JR 2B Jace Peterson
- Virginia Military Institute SR SS Sam Roberts
- Texas Tech JR SS Kelby Tomlinson
- Long Beach State JR SS Kirk Singer
- Southeast Missouri State JR SS Kenton Parmley
- Cal Poly JR 2B Matt Jensen
- Florida International JR 2B Jeremy Patton
- Florida State JR 2B Sherman Johnson
- Virginia JR 2B Keith Werman
- Siena JR 2B Dan Paolini
- Lake Erie College SS Ryan Rua
- Florida International JR 2B Garrett Wittels
- California JR SS Marcus Semien
- Vanderbilt SO SS Sam Lind
- Fresno State SR 2B Danny Muno
- Troy SR SS Adam Bryant
- Army SR SS Clint Moore
- South Carolina JR SS Peter Mooney
- Georgia Tech JR 2B Connor Winn
- Bowling Green JR 2B Jon Berti
- Tampa JR SS Taylor Wrenn
- James Madison SR SS David Herbek
- Marist JR 2B Jon Schwind
- Southeastern Louisiana JR SS Justin Boudreaux
- North Carolina A&T JR 2B Marquis Riley
- Auburn SR 3B Dan Gamache
- Virginia Tech JR SS Ronnie Shaban
- LSU JR SS Austin Nola
- Texas JR SS Brandon Loy
- LSU JR SS Tyler Hanover
- Southern SR 2B Curtis Wilson
- Towson SR 2B Chris Wychock
- Virginia Tech SR SS Tim Smalling
- TCU SR 2B Jerome Pena
- Oklahoma JR SS Caleb Bushyhead
2011 MLB Draft – College SS Commentary
Brad Miller and Joe Panik ranking in the top three is completely unoriginal. As a man who ate a delicious PB&J every day from second to sixth grade knows, believe me when I say sometimes boring works. Of course, even a simple-minded PB&J fan like me knows you have to mix it up every now and then. I’m not talking a fluffernutter level of radical change here; think more along the lines of adding potato chips for that extra salty crunch. This list’s chips comes in the form of one Taylor Motter. Motter’s defense is outstanding and his knowledge of the strike zone rivals that of any of his peers. I think his 2011 season and subsequent draft standing will remind many of what Kansas State’s Carter Jurica did in 2010.
Nick Ahmed (who I actually prefer on the mound, believe it or not) and Derek Dennis are both tools gambles at this point. Either player is capable of a Christian Colon rise up the board this spring, though it seems unlikely a team will reach on either quite the way the Royals did on Colon. I prefer the bats of Featherston and Serna over those of Ahmed and Dennis, but the much greater possibility of the latter pair playing an above-average shortstop professionally ultimately gave them the edge.
You could also lump Sam Roberts in with the aforementioned Featherston/Serna group. The VMI star has produced every year and shows no signs of stopping heading into 2011. He has many of the archetypal utility player attributes, including an arm strong enough for third, the athleticism to play up the middle, and more than sufficient power to the gaps. He’s not the only senior mid-round shortstop candidate; Adam Bryant (finally 100% healthy and showing above-average raw power), Clint Moore (very good defender with the makeup you’d expect from an Army man), and David Herbek (poor man’s Bill Mueller upside) all have the talent to find a home on a big league bench if everything breaks right.
Kelby Tomlinson, Sam Lind, and Peter Mooney are all very much on the scouting radar despite not having a single major college at bat among them. Tomlinson and Mooney, he of the potential plus-plus glove, both look like starters from day one. Austin Nola, Brandon Loy, and Tyler Hanover all could have been back end of the top ten prospects in a different year.
It wouldn’t be a college shortstop list without the requisite Long Beach State prospect. This year it’s Kirk Singer’s turn in the spotlight. He possesses many of the same talents of last year’s third rounder, Devin Lohman, right down to the strong arm, above-average hands, and questions about the bat.
2011 MLB Draft – Top 30 College SS Follow List
The difference between Miller, Motter, and Panik is slight enough that ranking them was nothing more than a flip of my very rare, three-sided coin. I feel much more strongly that Miller, Motter, and Panik are in fact the top three college shortstop prospects. All three players have the defensive tools to stick at short (Miller is probably the most questionable, but count me as a believer), and, at minimum, all profile as average big league players capable of playing anywhere in the infield as a pro. After that, things are wide open. Shortstop and catcher are both really tricky positions to judge as an outsider because many pro teams have very specific types of players they target at those spots. In this case, I tried to err on the side of defense, athleticism, and likelihood of staying at the position professionally, but a few prospects with more bat than glove (e.g. Featherston and Serna) offered skill sets too intriguing to ignore. I’m hoping tomorrow’s expanded commentary on this list will shed some light on the thought process behind many of the picks, but I’m happy to answer any questions in the meantime. Until then, here’s what I’ve got…
- Clemson JR SS Brad Miller
- Coastal Carolina JR SS Taylor Motter
- St. John’s JR SS Joe Panik
- Connecticut JR SS Nick Ahmed
- Michigan SO SS Derek Dennis
- UCLA JR SS Tyler Rahmatulla
- TCU JR SS Taylor Featherston
- Oregon JR SS KC Serna
- Virginia Military Institute SR SS Sam Roberts
- Texas Tech JR SS Kelby Tomlinson
- Long Beach State JR SS Kirk Singer
- Southeast Missouri State JR SS Kenton Parmley
- Lake Erie College SS Ryan Rua
- California JR SS Marcus Semien
- Vanderbilt SO SS Sam Lind
- Troy SR SS Adam Bryant
- Army SR SS Clint Moore
- South Carolina JR SS Peter Mooney
- LSU JR SS Austin Nola
- Texas JR SS Brandon Loy
- LSU JR SS Tyler Hanover
- Tampa JR SS Taylor Wrenn
- James Madison SR SS David Herbek
- Southeastern Louisiana JR SS Justin Boudreaux
- Virginia Tech JR SS Ronnie Shaban
- Virginia Tech SR SS Tim Smalling
- Oklahoma JR SS Caleb Bushyhead
- South Florida JR SS Sam Mende
- Minnesota JR SS AJ Pettersen
- Wichita State JR SS Tyler Grimes
2011 MLB Draft – Top 30 College SS Follow List (Honorable Mentions)
I realize I say something similar to the following every time a new list is published, but this time it is true: compiling the 2011 list of top college shortstop prospects took me longer than any other position so far. Here are a few players that didn’t make the cut, but are still interesting enough to follow during the 2011 season. I’d bet that only the seniors on this particular list will get serious draft consideration this June (and even then, we’re talking late round interest at best) while the juniors get their time in the sun in June of 2012. Despite the lack of potential pro talent, there are some excellent college players here that deserve notice.
Illinois JR SS Josh Parr
Missouri State JR SS Travis McComack
Florida Atlantic SR SS Nick DelGuidice
Bethune-Cookman JR SS Alejandro Sanchez
Liberty JR SS Matt Williams
Dartmouth JR SS Joe Sclafani
Wagner SR SS Brian Martutartus
Tennessee JR SS Zach Osborne
Maryland JR SS Alfredo Rodriguez
Cal State Fullerton SO SS Matt Orloff
UC Irvine JR SS DJ Crumlich
Ball State SR SS TJ Baumet
Kansas SR SS Brandon Macias
Radford JR SS Jeff Kemp
Utah SR SS Michael Beltran
Oregon State JR SS Carter Bell
UNLV SR SS Richie Jimenez
Kent State JR SS Jimmy Rider
BYU JR SS Austin Hall
Jacksonville State SR SS Blake Seguin
Western Kentucky JR SS Logan Robbins
Arkansas JR SS Tim Carver
UC Riverside SR SS Trevor Hairgrove
Sonoma State SR SS Alex Todd
Three names that pained me more than others to leave off the top thirty list: Parr, McComack, and Sclafani. Parr is a really good athlete with plus defensive tools, but his inability to control the strike zone presents a concern going forward. There is enough rawness in his hitting approach to think he is due for that big sophomore to junior year breakout at the plate. He definitely has the potential to make me look stupid for not finding a spot for him earlier. McComack is another good defender with a plus arm. He has a lot of the required skills (arm for third, range for short, instincts at second) needed to thrive as a defensive-first utility infielder if everything breaks right. Sclafani has the potential to emerge as a premium 2012 senior sign after he graduates from Dartmouth.
Underclassmen Osborne, Rodriguez, Orloff, and Crumlich all are well above-average with the leather, but find themselves in similar positions as 2010 juniors DelGuidice and Macias; if they follow the same pattern, we’ll be talking about that quartet once again in 2012.
Baumet and Bell are both talented players without long-term professional defensive homes. Baumet’s outstanding arm may eventually get him tried on the mound, but Bell seems like he could be out of luck professionally.
Random Draft and Minor League Ball Question
One simple question for this Monday: is there any college program in the country that you would be willing to trade your favorite MLB team’s top ten ranked minor league prospects in order to acquire their (the college program’s) top ten ranked amateur prospects? I ask that knowing full well that there are but a handful of people out there with intimate knowledge of ten prospects in all of college baseball, let alone ten players on just one team. I figured if there was anybody out there who could answer this question, it would be here. Maybe consider the question a different way first: would you be willing to risk losing your top ten minor league prospects for the draft haul Tampa is about to cash in on? Assume bonus demands aren’t part of this particular equation. The breakdown would be…
OUT: ten top minor leaguers
IN: the following picks in the first “two” rounds – 24, 31, 32, 38, 41, 42, 52, 56, 59, 60
I’m not saying there is a college program that currently has ten potential top 60 picks on its roster, but I think the basic idea here is the same. Do you trade the pro prospects who you know and love for a new crop of untested amateur ballers, more or less sight unseen? The strength of certain 2011 college programs and players makes this question more difficult than it may first appear.
I know Houston isn’t at the way bottom of most prospect rankings this year, but I think it is fair to say that their system is still not particularly strong, right? I don’t mean to pick on them, it’s just that they were one of the first teams to pop into my head. Would the Astros ever in a billion years consider trading their top ten minor league guys for, I don’t know, Rice’s top ten pro prospects? Rice wouldn’t be one of the schools I would pick for this exercise, but perhaps the presence of a marquee talent like Anthony Rendon would make the trade something to consider. The idea can be expanded even further; what if you could set the terms on how many players both teams would be giving up? Would Houston trade their top prospect (RHP Jordan Lyles) for Rice’s top prospect (Rendon)? If that’s a yes, and I’m pretty sure it would be, then how many players would you have to extend it to until it became a no? Would Houston trade their top two prospects (Lyles and Delino Deshields, according to Baseball America) for Rice’s top two prospects (Rendon and…I don’t know…a young arm like one of FR RHPs John Simms or Austin Kubitza…or maybe the toolsy JR OF Jeremy Rathjen)? How far do you have to go to end trade talks? Lots of questions, but I’m really curious as to whether or not I’m as far off the mark as I think I could be. I don’t want to be the stereotypical draft loving guy who overrates amateur prospects (see this all the time with fans of the minors…”I want my team to get Greinke, but no way would I consider moving any prospect in the top 20!!!), but I also think one of the best ways to draw prospect loving fans deeper into the draft/college ball is to tie minor league prospecting closer to amateur evaluation. I clearly need more time to flesh this whole idea out.
I do have one college team in mind that seems particularly stacked in talent. They are the team that actually got me thinking about this whole thought exercise in the first place. This team probably isn’t that hard to guess as I’m not alone in hyping them heading into 2011, but, from a prospect standpoint, they are really hard to beat. Freshmen to juniors, hitters and pitchers, good blend of star upside and high floor talent…what more could you want? College position rankings won’t stop, but in the coming days I’m also hoping to come back to this thought and do some minor league/college ball comparing and contrasting.
2011 MLB Draft – Top 50 Corner Infield Prospects
If this list seems like a fairly straightforward combination of two previously published rankings cobbled together to buy some time while other projects are completed, then, well, congratulations because you’re right. In my half-hearted defense, I think there is some value in combining 1B and 3B into one great big “corner infielder” umbrella category due to the high probability that at least a few of the third basemen on the list wind up at first base (Coy and Shaw are two highly ranked names that stand out) sooner rather than later. I also think there is value from a methodological standpoint, at least from a personal ranking philosophy standpoint. One quick observation on said methods: the 1B list is one that looks better when viewed from a college production standpoint (e.g. Troy Channing and Jordan Ribera ranking so highly), while the 3B list skews towards projection and scouting (e.g. the aggressive placement of Andy Burns and Adam Smith). All legitimate rankings in a vacuum, I think, but difficult when attempting to mesh the two lists together. At least the top spot was an easy one to pick…
Working on the college shortstop list. Hoping to get to the revised catching list and then outfielders at some point over the weekend. After wrapping up the position players, we’ll move on to college pitching and, finally, some 2011 high school prospect talk. Once the rankings are all out of the way — my goal this year was to finish them all before the college season, i.e. the unofficial start of “draft season,” and it looks like I’ll get there — then we can get into some of the new, fun ideas that have been kicking around in my head the past few months.
- Rice JR 3B Anthony Rendon
- Southern Mississippi JR 3B BA Vollmuth
- Vanderbilt JR 3B Jason Esposito
- Florida JR 1B Preston Tucker
- Georgia Tech JR 3B Matt Skole
- Southern California JR 1B Ricky Oropesa
- Miami JR 3B Harold Martinez
- Arizona JR 3B Andy Burns
- Arizona State JR 3B Riccio Torrez
- Wichita State JR 3B Johnny Coy
- Texas A&M JR 3B Adam Smith
- Kent State JR 3B Travis Shaw
- Clemson JR 3B John Hinson
- St. Mary’s JR 1B Troy Channing
- Texas State JR 3B Kyle Kubitza
- Winthrop JR 3B Chas Crane
- Coastal Carolina SR 3B Scott Woodward
- Oklahoma JR 3B Garrett Buechele
- Fresno State SR 1B Jordan Ribera
- Washington State JR 1B Taylor Ard
- East Tennessee State SR 1B Paul Hoilman
- Cal State Fullerton JR 1B Nick Ramirez
- TCU SO 3B Jantzen Witte
- Texas JR 3B Kevin Lusson
- Texas-Pan American JR 3B Vincent Mejia
- San Francisco SR 3B Steven Yarrow
- UCLA JR 1B Dean Espy
- Vanderbilt JR 1B Aaron Westlake
- North Carolina State JR 1B Harold Riggins
- Tarleton State SR 3B Chris Casazza
- Oklahoma State JR 3B Mark Ginther
- Nebraska JR 3B Cody Asche
- Texas A&M JR 3B Matt Juengel
- Virginia JR 3B Steven Proscia
- Louisiana Tech JR 3B Matt Threlkeld
- College of Charleston JR 3B Matt Leeds
- Mississippi JR 1B Matt Snyder
- Oklahoma City SR 3B Kirk Walker
- Baylor SO 3B Cal Towey
- Liberty JR 3B Tyler Bream
- Northwestern JR 1B Paul Snieder
- Cal State Fullerton SO 1B Carlos Lopez
- Oklahoma JR 1B Cam Seitzer
- Southern Illinois JR 1B Chris Serritella
- Cal Irvine JR 1B Jordan Leyland
- East Carolina JR 3B Corey Thompson
- Wake Forest JR 1B Austin Stadler
- Washington SR 1B Troy Scott
- Georgia JR 1B Chase Davidson
- Mercer JR 3B Jacob Tanis
2011 MLB Draft – College 3B Commentary
Full list here; quick and dirty commentary mere centimeters below…
I wanted to focus on players at or beyond the halfway point on the list because, as I’m sure to repeat ad nauseum in the coming months, this year’s college third base class does not lack in star power. Crane and Woodward are two of my favorites despite the fact it is unlikely either will emerge as a viable big league starter. That can make lists like this weird; sometimes high floor prospects that profile better as future utility guys get the upper hand on boom/bust prospects that have the talent to start but not necessarily the required skills to thrive in a backup role…and sometimes they don’t. Anyway, both players are extremely well rounded – solid tools across the board for each, though Crane has more power and Woodward more speed – and both offer really interesting defensive versatility. Woodward’s speed and superior instincts should help him get pro looks all over the field (minimum: 3B, 2B, maybe CF?) while Crane’s history as a prep catcher could entice a team into trying him as a backstop professionally.
I originally had Lusson much, much higher (top ten, I think), but some last minute homework pushed him down; like Crane, he could get tried as a catcher professionally. Lusson’s college neighbor Jantzen Witte (Austin and Forth Worth are like right next door, right? Texas is one cozy state, after all…) is a draft-eligible sophomore with elite defensive tools with the chance to break out with the bat in 2011. Another Texan collegian, Vincent Mejia, is a favorite of mine from a statistical standpoint – love the way he controls the strike zone – but there were enough scouting concerns (raw power is average at best, super slow runner) that kept me from putting him any higher.
The Big 12 third base prospect list would be pretty darn impressive in its own right, with Ginther, Asche, and Juengel coming in the rankings back-to-back-to-back. That trio meets Buechele, Smith, and Lusson in the top twenty three, with Baylor’s Cal Towey ready to join the fun at twenty eight. It is very possible I was too harsh with both Ginther (loads of untapped potential due to his football background) and Asche (underrated defender with a really sound approach at the plate, despite underwhelming numbers). Juengel has the most raw power of the three, but loses out because of his below-average defense. Non-Big 12ers Threlkeld, Leeds, and Bream all have plus raw power, but, like Juengel, have serious questions about their defensive upside.
2011 MLB Draft – Top 30 College 3B Follow List
Whatever the term “franchise player” means to you, consider that the upside of Anthony Rendon. Will teams still think this highly of Andy Burns even after he sits out 2011 after transferring in from Kentucky? Adam Smith is a tools gamble much liked highly ranked Oregon State C Andrew Susac; both were highly touted preps who have had up-and-down collegiate careers, but remain highly regarded by most talent evaluators. There are some really good names lower on this list than I anticipated (Hinson, Buechele, Ginther, Asche, Proscia, and Bream, to name a few), but this year’s draft class is just that strong.
- Rice JR 3B Anthony Rendon
- Southern Mississippi JR 3B BA Vollmuth
- Vanderbilt JR 3B Jason Esposito
- Georgia Tech JR 3B Matt Skole
- Miami JR 3B Harold Martinez
- Arizona JR 3B Andy Burns
- Arizona State JR 3B Riccio Torrez
- Wichita State JR 3B Johnny Coy
- Texas A&M JR 3B Adam Smith
- Kent State JR 3B Travis Shaw
- Clemson JR 3B John Hinson
- Texas State JR 3B Kyle Kubitza
- Winthrop JR 3B Chas Crane
- Coastal Carolina SR 3B Scott Woodward
- Oklahoma JR 3B Garrett Buechele
- TCU SO 3B Jantzen Witte
- Texas JR 3B Kevin Lusson
- Texas-Pan American JR 3B Vincent Mejia
- San Francisco SR 3B Steven Yarrow
- Tarleton State SR 3B Chris Casazza
- Oklahoma State JR 3B Mark Ginther
- Nebraska JR 3B Cody Asche
- Texas A&M JR 3B Matt Juengel
- Virginia JR 3B Steven Proscia
- Louisiana Tech JR 3B Matt Threlkeld
- College of Charleston JR 3B Matt Leeds
- Oklahoma City SR 3B Kirk Walker
- Baylor SO 3B Cal Towey
- Liberty JR 3B Tyler Bream
- East Carolina JR 3B Corey Thompson
2011 MLB Draft – Top 30 College 3B Follow List (Honorable Mentions)
The unrelenting positivity surrounding the promise of the 2011 draft class is bound to get old after a few months (negativity sells, after all), but, for now, it is a heck of a lot of fun. It was a pain in the neck filling out the last few spots on a few of the position lists last spring. This year, however, trimming down the top 30 third baseman list was an absolute chore. I haven’t been following the draft long enough to make any kind of absurd declaration about the quality of this year’s class, but, damn, this is one amazing amateur crop. Here are a few of the quality names that didn’t make my top 30 3B cut…
Mercer JR 3B Jacob Tanis
North Carolina State JR 3B Andrew Ciencin
Auburn JR 3B Creede Simpson
UC Irvine SR 3B Brian Hernandez
Jacksonville State JR 3B Sam Eberle
Tennessee SR 3B Matt Duffy
Southern Mississippi JR 3B Ashley Graeter
Florida State SR 3B Stuart Tapley
Maryland JR 3B Tomo Delp
Michigan JR 3B John Lorenz
Stetson JR 3B Ben Carhart
Clemson JR 3B Jason Stolz
North Carolina Wilmington JR 3B Cameron Cockman
Florida SR 3B Bryson Smith
Penn State JR 3B Jordan Steranka
Georgia JR 3B Colby May
This list gives you a little bit of everything, I think. Before we start I should point out that 34 four-year college third basemen were taken in last year’s draft with 6 more junior college players taken at the position. Tomorrow’s follow list will have 30 third basemen and today’s honorable mention list has 16. That 46 doesn’t include the handful of junior college players that I always seem to overlook. Context!
Hernandez, Duffy, and Smith were all on the Top 30 last year, but got squeezed out of the rankings for one reason or another this year. I called Hernandez a “whole is greater than the sum of his parts” prospect last year, and I think a season similar to the one he had in 2010 (356/421/513) should get him drafted as a late round senior sign if a team buys into his defensive versatility at the next level. Duffy is a big personal favorite who I think could have big league value based on his outstanding glove and nothing more. The comparisons last year were Jack Hannahan and Andy LaRoche, at least in terms of possible career paths. Smith was easily the biggest tumbler from last year’s list. I try not to get into too much of the good old fashioned baseball psychology, but I do wonder if both Smith and fellow 2010 junior Josh Adams struggled last year due to the weight of having to carry a young Gators offense. A return to health after a season of nagging injuries would also help.
Graeter has the chance to shoot way up in the rankings once the season gets started. He’s transferring from Pearl River CC to Southern Mississippi to form one heck of a formidable left side of the infield in Hattiesburg. I liked him more as a pitcher than a position player last year at this time, but solid defensive tools, a plus arm, and intriguing offensive upside make him a legit position player in his own right. Tomo Delp is in a similar situation. His plus bat is now off to Maryland after spending time as Bryce Harper’s junior college teammate.
2011 MLB Draft – College 2B Commentary
College second basemen selected in the first 20 rounds of the MLB Draft need to show exceptional ability in one of three offensive categories – power, plate discipline, or speed. I know, I was shocked to find out that big league clubs value those things as well. A quick study of early round college second basemen shows that 78% of college 2B taken in the top 20 rounds over the past three years showed standout skills in one of the three aforementioned areas.
I haven’t looked at the numbers from 2010, but that 78% figure runs from 2007-2009. The unscientific standards that I used for power, plate discipline, and speed were: power = minimum .550 SLG, plate discipline = more walks than strikeouts, and speed = 20+ stolen bases. Here’s how this year’s class ranked:
All 3 benchmarks reached: Wong – Michael – MacPhee
2 of 3 reached: LaStella – Medrano – Peterson – Patton – Johnson – Spangenberg
1 of 3 reached: Wright – Werman – Paolini – Wittels – Muno – Berti – Riley – Gamache – Wilson – Wychock – Pena
0 reached: Jensen – Schwind – Luciano – Jones – Black – Puhl – Heffley
Not enough at bats to qualify: Terry – Winn – Holland
I didn’t realize any of that before making my list, so it’s pretty interesting to see the top three on my personal list just so happened to be the only three players to hit on all three statistical benchmarks. Looking back on that 2007-2009 pool of players, the best player during the “study” was Miami JR 2B Jemile Weeks. Weeks put up a junior year line of 363/.452/.641 with a BB/K ratio of 35/38 and stole 22 bases in 23 tries. Compare the following lines [Draft Year – Player: BA/OBP/SLG (BB/K) (SB/SBA)]:
2008 Weeks: 363/452/641 (35/38) (22/23)
2010 Wong: 438/507/657 (37/19) (20/27)
2010 Michael: 374/509/621 (48/24) (22/24)
2010 MacPhee: 380/483/647 (42/36) (20/24)
2010 LaStella: 388/471/659 (34/14) (6/6)
2010 Wright: 370/418/642 (21/25) (10/11)
2010 Medrano: 443/512/614 (31/24) (17/19)
There is more to amateur player evaluation than just numbers, of course. Wong and Michael absolutely have scouting reports on par with the junior year version of Weeks. I’d argue for MacPhee at or near the same point, but that might be just me. I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating: 2011 is a great draft for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is the outstanding quality of collegiate second base prospects. A few quick words on a few other prospects I love…
Joe Terry is one of my favorites. Here’s what I wrote about him last year:
Terry is the quintessential hitting machine who finds a way to make hard contact darn near every time he steps to the plate. He does more than just hit, however; Terry is also an above-average runner with a strong arm who, despite appearing to fight his body sometimes in the field, should settle in as at least an average second baseman with the help of professional coaching. He reinvented himself somewhat in 2010 sacrificing some power for a more patient approach.
Terry has good speed, a strong arm, and a really quick bat. As mentioned, his defense has been questioned in the past, but reports from Fullerton this fall were very favorable. This comparison isn’t perfect, but in terms of potential upside and positional versatility, Terry could have a career that looks a little like Bill Hall’s.
Peterson is a really underrated prospect that has the crazy athleticism of a former football star with the refined plate approach of a professional. With proper coaching, he has definite big league starter upside. Jensen, Johnson, and Werman all have played around the diamond and have shown enough aptitude at various positions to profile as potential utility guys. If Joe Terry is the Taylor Ard of second basemen (junior college transfers on the pro radar for years who are finally playing major college ball), Corey Spangenberg is the Jamie Bruno (prospects in limbo awaiting transfers to big programs). Spangenberg is going to Miami next fall unless a pro team takes a chance on him this June. Maybe it is just the Miami connection clouding my judgment, but I could see a possible Scott Lawson comp here.
2011 MLB Draft – College 1B Commentary
For reference’s sake, the complete list of top 2011 college first basemen. Now some quick thoughts on a few selected players. I’m happy to add extra thoughts on any other player by request.
I think it is more likely they are no future everyday big league first basemen out of this class than there is more than one. That’s not to say we won’t see a future big league star emerge out of this class, but the odds seemed stacked against it. Obviously the players with the best chance are the ones ranked one and two on the list because, well, otherwise they wouldn’t be ranked one and two on the list. Top ranked Tucker has been covered already; number two Oropesa’s strengths (power, defense, arm, chance he could start his career at third) far outweigh his weaknesses (swing can get too long, possibility of potential contact issues down the line).
Channing’s plus power is enticing, but the Brett Wallace body comp scares the heck out of me. Ribera has similarly intriguing power, maybe more appealing if you value present power over raw upside, but the fact there is less projection to his game can be a double edged sword. I guess it should also be mentioned that, despite some internet hotshot like me being a big fan, Ribera went undrafted in 2010. A fact like that begs the simple question: what are the people paid to do this for a living seeing (or not seeing?) that I’m missing?
The only player near the top of the ranking without major college experience could position himself atop the whole list by June. Taylor Ard’s funky swing has some scouts questioning how he’ll transition to big time college ball, but I think it’ll play, especially when it comes to his power upside. His strong track record with wood, underrated athleticism, and aforementioned plus-plus raw power should make up for whatever contact deficiencies he might have to overcome. I’m as excited to see how he adjusts to the Pac-10 as I am any newcomer to the college game and the statistical breakdown between him and Oropesa will be telling.
By sheer coincidence, we have back-to-back-to-back potential-laden, yet disappointing first basemen, all in different draft-eligibility years. First, the sophomore Jamie Bruno. Bruno has all of the tools teams like for in a well-rounded first baseman, but never got on track while at Tulane. He is draft-eligible this year as he sits out while he transfers to LSU. The junior is Georgia 1B Chase Davidson. Davidson was made famous by a Jim Thome comp from his high school days, but, tell me if you’ve heard this before, hasn’t gotten it together at the college level. When locked in, Davidson looks like a potential big league regular, but, as the numbers bear out, he is locked out (opposite of locked in?) far more often. To tap into his big power, he’ll need to find a way to shrink the far too big holes in his swing. Lastly, we have senior 1B Troy Scott from Washington. Whenever you think I might know what I’m talking about, just remember that I thought Scott had a chance to sneak into the first round last year. He is a rebound candidate this year if he can get back to his patient, power hitting ways.
I feel bad leaving anybody out, so here’s a quick ranking of the power upside of each player on the list. Players are ranked in terms of power upside. I realize the two category setup is extremely simplistic, but it’s just a starting point…
Plus: Tucker, Oropesa, Channing, Ribera, Ard, Hoilman, Ramirez, Riggins, Westlake, Seitzer, Leyland, Scott, Davidson, Griffin, Hicks, Diamaduros, Kaupang
Above-Average: Espy, Snyder, Snieder, Serritella, Stadler, Bruno, Skipper, Hook, Haar, Elgie, B. Green, D. Green
2011 MLB Draft – Top 30 College 2B Follow List
- North Carolina JR 2B Levi Michael
- Hawaii JR 2B Kolten Wong
- Arizona State JR 2B Zack MacPhee
- Cal State Fullerton JR 2B Joe Terry
- Coastal Carolina JR 2B Tommy LaStella
- Louisville JR 2B Ryan Wright
- Missouri State JR 2B Kevin Medrano
- McNeese State JR 2B Jace Peterson
- Cal Poly JR 2B Matt Jensen
- Florida International JR 2B Jeremy Patton
- Florida State JR 2B Sherman Johnson
- Virginia JR 2B Keith Werman
- Siena JR 2B Dan Paolini
- Florida International JR 2B Garrett Wittels
- Fresno State SR 2B Danny Muno
- Bowling Green JR 2B Jon Berti
- Marist JR 2B Joe Schwind
- North Carolina A&T JR 2B Marquis Riley
- Auburn SR 2B Dan Gamache
- Southern SR 2B Curtis Wilson
- Georgia Tech JR 2B Connor Winn
- Towson SR 2B Chris Wychock
- TCU SR 2B Jerome Pena
- Central Florida SR 2B Derek Luciano
- UT-San Antonio SR 2B Ryan Hutson (EDIT: previously listed with SS group)
- Michigan State SO 2B Ryan Jones
- Maryland JR 2B Ryan Holland
Oklahoma SR 2B Danny Black(EDIT: signed in 2010, my mistake)- Minnesota SO 2B Matt Puhl
- Western Carolina JR 2B Ross Heffley
- Indian River State College SO 2B Corey Spangenberg
- Georgia JR 2B Levi Hyams
2011 MLB Draft – Top 30 College 1B Follow List
- JR 1B Preston Tucker (Florida)
- JR 1B Ricky Oropesa (Southern California)
- JR 1B Troy Channing (St. Mary’s)
- SR 1B Jordan Ribera (Fresno State)
- JR 1B Taylor Ard (Washington State)
- 1B SR Paul Hoilman (East Tennessee State)
- JR 1B Nick Ramirez (Cal State Fullerton)
- JR 1B Dean Espy (UCLA)
- JR 1B Aaron Westlake (Vanderbilt)
- JR 1B Harold Riggins (North Carolina State)
- JR 1B Matt Snyder (Mississippi)
- JR 1B Paul Snieder (Northwestern)
- SO 1B Carlos Lopez (Cal State Fullerton)
- JR 1B Cam Seitzer (Oklahoma)
- JR 1B Chris Serritella (Southern Illinois)
- JR 1B Jordan Leyland (Cal Irvine)
- JR 1B Austin Stadler (Wake Forest)
- SR 1B Troy Scott (Washington)
- JR 1B Chase Davidson (Georgia)
- SO 1B Jamie Bruno (LSU)
- JR 1B Matt Skipper (
New Mexico Junior College) (Embry-Riddle) - SR 1B Jonathan Griffin (Central Florida)
- JR 1B Brad Hook (South Alabama)
- JR 1B Bryan Haar (San Diego)
- JR 1B Zac Elgie (Kansas)
- SO 1B DJ Hicks (Central Florida)
- JR 1B Konstantine Diamaduros (Wofford)
- JR 1B Brock Green (Ouachita Baptist)
- SR 1B Dean Green (
Oklahoma State) (transferred to Barry) - SR 1B Stephen Kaupang (Oregon)
The Baseball Draft Report 