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Mike Trout (and Kyle Seager)
The man in the title lucky enough to escape the parentheses who just so happened to get the call to the big leagues today also just so happens to be my biggest draft miss since I started this site back in 2009. Mike Trout was ranked 74th on my final 2009 MLB Draft big board, behind such luminaries as Todd Glaesmann and Miles Hamblin. Hey, at least I had him ranked ahead of Brooks Raley!
Besides the always super fun attempt at self-depreciation, the reason I bring up my low ranking of Trout is to see if there is something that I can learn from in all of this. My issues with Trout were pretty simple: I didn’t believe in the bat (looked really sluggish through the zone), I didn’t think his speed was on the same level as others (inexcusable considering I saw him play live and in color, but I had him timed as above-average at best), and, most embarrassing, I could never get past the popular at the time, but silly in hindsight Aaron Rowand comp that engulfed my brain. That last point could be an example of why player comps are dangerous and how they often do more harm than good; I’d agree to a certain extent, but feel obligated to stress once again that comps should be used as a starting point alone. True, when I was younger and stupider I often took comps too far; Mike Trout as an Aaron Rowand clone is Exhibit A. Now that I’m older and wiser I can appreciate the way all comps must be used in proper context: I know now to consider a) who is providing the comp and how serious they are about the similarities, b) whether is it a potential outcome, body, tool, or skill comp, and c) what are the major differences between the players being compared (call this fact-checking the veracity of the original comp). I remember telling a buddy that Trout reminded me of a speedier Jay Payton, for what it’s worth. Probably shouldn’t quit my day job anytime soon…
Besides falling behind such stars as Glaesmann and Hamblin, Trout was also behind another player recently recalled to the bigs, Seattle’s Kyle Seager. Seager was my 65th ranked player that year. I won’t argue that Seager will be a better ballplayer than Trout as a big leaguer, but I am just crazy enough to stand by my original pre-draft ranking of the two prospects. I already laid out my wrong-headed assessments of Trout during his high school days. Seager, on the other hand, was a personal favorite from day one. This was written in March of 2009:
Batting stance is reminiscent of Chase Utley’s, but comparing a player not likely to even go in the first round with a top ten big league position player isn’t fair to anybody; instead, Seager reminds me a little bit of a better version of former ASU shortstop and current Phillies prospect Jason Donald – Seager is the better hitter, but Donald had the defensive edge; Seager’s well-rounded game (great plate discipline, slightly above-average power, good baserunner, high contact rate) make him a personal favorite of mine and as good a bet as any college hitter to settle in to a long career as a league average (at least) big leaguer.
If we can ignore the fact that I was comparing every collegiate middle infielder to Jason Donald at the time (pretty sure Grant Green also got the Donald treatment at some point), we still can see that all of his offensive positives from his college days (great plate discipline, slightly above-average power, good baserunner, high contact rate) apply as a professional. I really like Seager, both as a player and a person, and I look forward to watching his career unfold.
As much as I like Seager, his third round draft status keeps him from the following list. These are the first/supplemental first round picks in 2009 that have already reached in the big leagues. My pre-draft ranking is in parentheses: RHP Stephen Strasburg (1st), 2B Dustin Ackley (2nd), RHP Mike Leake (4th), RHP Alex White (6th), RHP Aaron Crow (11th), LHP Mike Minor (18th), LHP Rex Brothers (33rd), LHP Andy Oliver (49th), RHP Drew Storen (51st). Pretty crazy, right? That’s nine out of forty-nine possible players already in the bigs just two short years later.
As a final aside, Washington was rumored by Baseball America to have strongly considered taking either Trout or Wil Myers with the tenth overall pick. Storen has done what has been expected of him so far, but, damn, it is easy to love a Werth-Trout-Harper outfield for the next half decade and beyond.
College Team Profiles: North Carolina Tar Heels
One of the most popular (fine, the only) question I’ve been emailed since starting this site up goes a little something like this: I’m going to see ____ University/College/State play this weekend and I was wondering if there was anybody with a professional future that would be worth watching. The College Team Profiles are designed to preemptively answer any and all questions about the prospects from a particular college team…or maybe just open up a whole new set of questions, we’ll see. The next three draft classes for one particular school are featured, with the players ranked in order (great to less great) within each class.
As always, whether you agree, disagree, or think I’m a dope who should leave this sort of stuff to the experts (thanks, Mom)…let’s hear it via email (thebaseballdraftreport@gmail.com) or in the comments section.
Photo Source: Sports Logos and Screensavers
22 of the finest the University of North Carolina has to offer after the jump… (more…)
2009 MLB Draft: College Big Board Report Cards
Things have been quiet around here lately, but for good reason…it’s report card season! Yes, I do have a day job that may keep me updating from time to time, and, yes, filling out report card after report card takes priority over draft coverage – sad, but true. However, with all that grading in the books, it’s time to move on. What better way to celebrate than by doing some more grading!
In case you’ve been busy like me and haven’t kept up with some of the top college prospects, below the jump is a look back at our earlier College Big Board 1.0 (just the top 25 this time) with grades based on their performance through the first three weeks of the college baseball season. (more…)
2009 MLB Draft: College Big Board 1.0
1. Steven Strasburg (RHSP – San Diego State)
Alright, so far this is pretty easy…
2. Alex White (RHSP – North Carolina)
3. Grant Green (SS – Southern California)
4. Dustin Ackley (OF – North Carolina)
5. Kyle Gibson (RHSP – Missouri)
White is a confusing prospect. On one hand, he’s second on the board and, while Green may be very close behind him at number three, is a worthy candidate to go number two overall. On the other hand, if we pretended Strasburg wasn’t draft-eligible this year, would White as the number one pick in the country feel right? That may be a silly way of looking at it, but I can’t help it. Maybe it’s more about my personal hangup about what a number one overall pick should be. I like White a lot and genuinely believe he can front a big league rotation, but it would feel like a weak draft if he went number one overall. Ugh, that makes no sense. I’m just thinking out loud, disregard this paragraph…
6. Mike Minor (LHSP – Vanderbilt)
7. Tanner Scheppers (RHSP – Fresno State/St. Paul Saints)
8. Aaron Crow (RHSP – Missouri/Forth Worth Cats)
9. Andrew Oliver (LHSP – Oklahoma State)
Minor is a personal favorite and higher on this list than he’ll sure be on others – watching Cole Hamels every fifth day the last few years has turned me into a huge backer of lefties with plus changeups. Scheppers is also higher here than he’ll be on most rankings, but, remember, this ranking is based on the assumption of good health into the summer.
10. Josh Phegley (C – Indiana)
11. Mike Leake (RHSP – Arizona State)
12. James Jones (LHSP – Long Island)
13. Kendal Volz (RHSP – Baylor)
14. Mike Nesseth (RHSP – Nebraska)
Phegley as the third ranked college bat may seem a little strange, but his statistical profile is hard to ignore. He heads up an underrated group of college catchers that feature a surprisingly high number of players on the list – well, maybe it isn’t all that surprising, but it was surprising to me as I put the list together, whatever that’s worth. Leake over Volz is a little strange, but it came down to present plus command and movement over potential power plus stuff across the board.
15. Sean Black (RHSP – Seton Hall)
16. Jake Locker (OF – Washington)
Sometimes I have a hard time letting go. I know I previously admitted having Locker = poor man’s Grady Sizemore burned into my brain, but Sean Black this high could be just as egregious a selection. Black was a big prep prospect not too long ago who has failed to live up to the hype at Seton Hall. Loads of raw talent + more difficult playing conditions (subpar team, so-so conference, and colder weather) = potential sleeper prospect. Locker will fall down the list (and eventually off altogether) as other players emerge this spring, but I had to put him way up here as a nod to his prodigious talent.
17. Kentrail Davis (OF – Tennessee)
18. Robbie Shields (SS – Florida Southern)
19. Jared Mitchell (OF – Louisiana State)
20. Kyle Seager (2B – North Carolina)
21. Rich Poythress (1B – Georgia)
Counting Locker at 16th, that gives us sixth straight position players in a row. How about that? These five should all be big league starters if all goes according to plan, though only the two outfielders profile as potential all-stars.
22. Sam Dyson (RHSP – South Carolina)
23. Chris Dominguez (3B – Louisville)
All or nothing, here we come. Dyson’s arm is electric, but his injury history and control both need some cleaning up. Dominguez has his detractors, but two plus tools (arm and power) make him stand out in a weak college class for hitters. If he puts it all together this season, expect crazy power numbers out of Dominguez, especially in Big East play.
24. Ryan Ortiz (C – Oregon State)
25. DJ LeMahieu (SS – Louisiana State)
26. Trevor Coleman (C – Missouri)
27. Robert Stock (C – Southern California)
28. Ryan Jackson (SS – Miami)
Five spots, only two positions. Sorting out the college catchers and middle infielders is one of the trickier things to do in this class. Ortiz is an underrated player because his skillset is so broad. Players like this often get overlooked for not having one standout tool to suck scouts in. LeMahieu is a far better hitter than Jackson, but they are close in the overall rankings because Jackson’s defense is outstanding. Big league front offices realize the importance of quality defense now more than ever, so where Jackson falls on actual draft boards will make an interesting case study in just how focused teams are developing their own standout defenders through the draft. As I already wrote about in the mock draft, Stock = catching version of Sean Black. Of course, baseball is a weird game so there may be more to the story than that simple equation (I like equations, by the way…if you haven’t noticed. We might be able to claim that Stock = Black without the catching disclaimer if the Southern Cal product has a big season on the mound for the Trojans.
29. AJ Pollock (OF/2B – Notre Dame)
30. Jason Stoffel (RHRP – Arizona)
31. Bryan Morgado (LHSP – Tennessee)
32. Kyle Heckathorn (RHSP – Kennesaw State)
Pollock is a hard player to figure, but if the position switch to second base actually sticks, he’ll fly up draft boards this spring. He is a very good basestealer, has playable pop, and is difficult to strike out. Pollock is one of the few I haven’t seen play yet, so I’m just throwing this out there…what about Chone Figgins as a comp?
33. Ben Tootle (RHRP – Jacksonville State)
34. Shawn Tolleson (RHSP – Baylor)
35. Jake Cowan (RHSP – San Jacinto JC)
36. Blake Smith (OF/RHSP – California)
The first junior college player to make the list is a righty with a great frame, 95 MPH fastball, and three plus pitches. Cowan, the former Virginia recruit, will be in contention to be the first juco player picked in 2009.
37. Tyler Lyons (LHSP – Oklahoma State)
38. Jeff Inman (RHSP – Stanford)
39. Ryan Weber (RHSP – St. Petersburg JC)
Weber is the second junior college arm on the list, a fact worth noting because neither the aforementioned Jake Cowan or Weber is Daniel Webb. Webb, the consensus top junior college talent, failed to crack the top fifty. Blazing fastball or not, he was just too raw a prospect for our tastes.
40. Micah Gibbs (C – Louisiana State)
41. Matt Thomson (RHSP – San Diego)
42. Brad Boxberger (RHRP – Southern California)
43. Tommy Medica (C – Santa Clara)
44. Brad Stillings (RHSP – Kent State)
45. Steve Fischback (RHRP – Cal Poly)
46. Nick Hernandez (LHSP – Tennessee)
47. Gavin Brooks (LHSP – UCLA)
48. Jordan Henry (OF – Mississippi)
49. David Hale (RHSP – Princeton)
50. Ben Paulsen (1B – Clemson)
And that’s 50. Not a very inspiring last group, but, let’s be real, it’s not a very exciting year for high-end college talent. I think I picked the wrong year to start doing this…
Check back all weekend long for occasional updates on college baseball’s opening weekend.
The Baseball Draft Report 