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5 College Baseball Box Scores of Interest (Weekend of 3/4/11)
I can’t really remember what made this particular box score stand out, but I must have copied and pasted it into a Word document for a reason. Could it be the 0-4 leadoff performance of the Mick Doyle, also known as college baseball’s best name to university fit? Perhaps. Or it could have been the good pitching matchup between Cole Johnson and Tyler Mizenko that lived up to the billing. Johnson’s talent (slightly above-average fastball and good slider) has too often surpassed his performance on the field. A big senior season could put him in line to be one of the top mid-round senior signs. Then again, and I realize I’m taking this whole “2011 college class has potential to be historically great” thing too far, this could be a historically great group of college pitching senior signs. Off the top of my head (or a Ctrl + F of “SR” of my 2011 college pitching Word doc), the 2011 group of senior sign pitching includes a whole boat load of potential big league middle relievers like Scott Matyas, Tyler Wilson, Brett Harman, Randy Fontanez, Patrick Johnson, Corey Pappel, Thomas Girdwood, TJ Walz, Steven Maxwell, Taylor Hill, Cole Green, Michael Rocha, James Nygren, Tim Kelley, Ryan Woolley, Rick Anton, Brian Dupra, Elliott Glynn, Kevin Jacob, Nick Fleece…the list goes on and on. Mizenko, on the other hand, is a damn fine junior prospect who has struggled with his stuff in the early going. His fastball velocity has been down and his typically sharp slider hasn’t been, well, sharp. I still like Mizenko’s upside as a potential three-pitch starting pitcher.
Villanova ace JR RHP Kyle McMyne is a personal favorite, so I’m always interested to see how he does against quality lineups. Wilmington’s lineup certainly qualifies, especially leadoff hitter Cameron Cockman and three-hole batter Andrew Cain. McMyne, one of the most consistent high velocity arms in the 2011 draft pool, delivered with a strong 7 inning, 10 strikeout outing good enough to get him the win. I’ll hopefully be seeing a lot of McMyne this spring, so expect a few firsthand accounts if all goes according to plan.
It was hard to pick one game out of the big Stanford-Texas. Then I figured, since this is college baseball after all, just go with the Friday night game. You know Taylor Jungmann is a good prospect when the biggest, and arguably only, question about his game focuses on his workload rather than his stuff or performance. The difference between Jungmann and Matt Purke is so minute that it really wouldn’t be a surprise to see team’s prefer the fresher arm (Purke) over the arm that has been “Augied.” We’ll see. Also, weird that a pitcher with Mark Appel’s stuff could ever go 7.1 innings pitched with only 2 strikeouts.
Mentioned it earlier, but it bears repeating: Trevor Bauer struck out 17 (!) batters in 10 (!) innings. Despite Bauer’s gem, UCLA still managed a way to lose. I wish I had mentioned this before the season started and the UCLA bats went cold, but the Bruins’ lineup is really underwhelming from a prospect standpoint. At first I thought my concerns about the their offense wouldn’t impact the 2011 team from a performance standpoint; certain college programs can be built on quality college hitters just doing enough to win behind excellent pitching and be quite successful. Now I’m officially worried that the lack of offense could hurt UCLA’s on-field bottom line. Outside of a solid prospect outfield (Keefer, Amaral, Gelalich, and Allen), there isn’t a lot of pro upside there.
59 batters stepped to the plate…only 10 reached base. Ground ball machine Hudson Randall (65% of his non-K outs recorded via the grounder) was particularly great on the mound (7 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 5 K).
Three More Quick Thoughts on College Baseball’s Third Weekend
1. The elite college pitching is really hard to keep up with. On Friday night, the trio of Andrew Chafin (10 K’s), Gerrit Cole (8), and Tyler Anderson (14) combined to total 24 innings of shutout, 9-hit baseball between them. Not to be outdone, Sonny Gray (9 IP 3 H 1 ER 0 BB 15 K) and Danny Hultzen (7 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 11 K) also dominated in their Friday night matchups. Hultzen, the early favorite for the Golden Spikes Award, helped himself at the plate and on the base paths yet again, this time by walking three times and stealing two bases. On the year he has allowed 9 base runners in 20.2 innings on the mound while reaching base twice as often (13 hits and 5 walks in just over 40 plate appearances) at the plate. On the other end of the spectrum, it was disappointing to see Nick Tropeano struggle a little bit on the big stage against North Carolina, but, in what could be definitely be considered a silver lining (or grasping for straws at a really tiny sample size), he did manage to keep UNC’s best hitter Levi Michael quiet. Also disappointed to see Taylor Jungmann throw 120 pitches. I’ve been hesitant to downgrade Jungmann, but, in a year with so many premium college arms tightly bunched at the top, it isn’t outside the realm of possibility to see Jungmann dip below similarly, or in some cases slightly less, talented arms with more favorable college usage patterns.
2. Remember Player A from Friday? The guy who fit the following description: potential plus hit tool; line drive machine; gap power upside; leadoff man profile with above-average speed and good plate discipline; solid defender in CF; average at best throwing arm that grades out higher in terms of accuracy than strength; good track record with wood; great athlete with a pro body; 6-2, 175 pounds? That guy? His line for the weekend (6-9, BB, 2 RBI, 3 R, 2 SB, K) fit in nicely with his scouting report. 6 hits, all singles. Player B, meanwhile, was described like this: great physical strength; plus raw power; plus bat speed; average speed; average arm; good range in a corner; pitch recognition, or lack thereof, could make or break him; 6-2, 195 pounds. His line (7-12, 2 HR, 3B, 2B, BB, 6 RBI, 4 R, 2 SB, K) was also in line with the scouting reports (especially the power outburst), except with improved plate discipline. All in all, good weekends for both Johnny Ruettiger and Jason Coats.
3. No rhyme or reason behind the methodology of choosing players for this list, other than the desire of wanting to spotlight batting lines that intrigued me enough to jot down. As a draft-eligible sophomore coming off of an uninspiring freshman campaign, Andrew Susac was a prime “wait and see” player for me heading into 2011. It is still early, but, man, it is easy to like what the guy has done so far. All stats are from the weekend of 3/4 to 3/6…
- Oregon State SO C Andrew Susac (7-13, 2 HR, 2 2B, 4 BB, 8 RBI, 9 R)
- Bethune Cookman JR C Peter O’Brien (6-11, 2 HR, 2B, 6 RBI, 4 R, K)
- Connecticut JR SS Nick Ahmed (4-5, HR, BB, RBI, 3 R, 2 SB on Saturday followed by 0-4 on Sunday)
- St. John’s JR SS Joe Panik (7-11, 2B, 4 BB, 4 RBI, 7 R, 2 SB, K)
- Virginia JR LHP/1B Danny Hultzen (2-4, 3B, 4 BB, 2 RBI, 2 R, 2 SB)
- LSU JR OF Mikie Mahtook (3-9, HR, 2B, 4 BB, RBI, 5 R, 3 SB, 2 K)
- Oregon State SO OF Garrett Nash (5-12, 2B, 2 BB, 4 RBI, 9 R, 3 HBP, 2 SB, K)
- Rice JR OF Jeremy Rathjen (4-12, 2 2B, BB, 3 RBI, SB, K)
Another draft-eligible Oregon State sophomore is primed to rise up draft boards if he can keep stringing together weekends like this past weekend’s. The biggest questions Nash needed to answer this spring surrounded his hit tool and the early returns, from a scouting perspective anyway, are positive enough. The big weekend only brought his season line up to .200/.409/.233, but the plus-plus speed and potential for plus defense in center remain strong points in his favor.
Three Quick Thoughts on College Baseball’s Third Weekend
1. In what will almost certainly not become a regular weekly feature, here’s this past weekend’s weirdest inning:
UAB 2nd – M. Busby grounded out to 2b. R. Ussery grounded out to ss. K. DePew tripled to right center. J. German hit by pitch. J. German advanced to second on the error; K. DePew scored on an error by c, failed pickoff attempt. C. Arrowood singled to center field, RBI; J. German scored. C. Arrowood stole second. J. Austin walked. N. Crawford singled to shortstop; J. Austin advanced to second; C. Arrowood advanced to third. J. Frost singled to shortstop, RBI; N. Crawford advanced to second; J. Austin advanced to third; C. Arrowood scored. P. Palmeiro doubled to right center, 3 RBI; J. Frost scored; N. Crawford scored; J. Austin scored. M. Busby struck out looking. 6 runs, 5 hits, 1 error, 1 LOB.
All I wanted to do was check in and see how Ryan Woolley and Jamal Austin performed, but, damn, this mess of an inning captivated my attention. Cleveland State managed to get the first two outs on routine ground balls (ED NOTE: no clue if the grounders were in fact routine, but allow me to flex a little creative license here) until all heck broke loose. In order, Cleveland State allowed the following before ending the inning with a strikeout: 3B – HBP – E – 1B – SB – BB – 1B – 1B – 2B. It wasn’t all fun and games for UAB, at least not for JR DH Michael Busby. As astute readers may have already noticed, one M. Busby bookended the 6 run, 5 hit inning by making outs.
2. Hard to believe, but Indiana State RHP Jason Van Skike’s no-hitter was not the most dominant pitching performance of the weekend. In fact, Van Skike’s no-hitter wasn’t even the headlining athletic event of the Indiana State weekend. Great as Van Skike’s performance was, it’s awful hard to top the basketball team winning a conference title and sewing up the school’s first NCAA tournament birth in ten years. Also really hard to top what UCLA JR RHP Trevor Bauer did on Saturday. Lines like Bauer’s (10 IP 4 H 1 ER 5 BB 17 K) just don’t come around every weekend. According to the numbers whizzes at College Splits, Bauer’s Game Score of 92 topped Van Skike’s of 84. According to me, 10 innings and 17 strikeouts are both eye-popping numbers.
3. Maybe it is because I’m almost ready to wrap up my three week odyssey of ranking the best 2011 college outfield prospects (coming later this week!), but, when looking at box scores this weekend, something about the hitting lines of outfielders kept jumping out at me. Arguably the best weekend for any college outfield prospect belonged to Central Florida’s 2011 draft-eligible true sophomore Ronnie Richardson. His weekend (7-13, 3B, 2B, BB, 3 RBI, 4 R, K, 2 SB) bumped his season numbers up to .409/.518/.591 with twice as many walks as strikeouts (10 BB/5 K) and 4 stolen bases in 6 tries. I’m extremely bullish on Richardson, a prospect I consider a rich man’s LeVon Washington. To use that comparison as a means of comparing the relative strengths of the 2010 and 2011 drafts (stay with me here), Washington (a prospect I was and am down on) ranked 11th among college outfielders in 2010. Richardson, a prospect I think I like more than most, will probably wind up somewhere between 15th and 25th on my 2011 outfield list. Crazy.
Top Ten College Outfielders and Mystery Prospect Comparison
My goal is to have the complete list of college outfield prospect rankings out by next week, but for now here is a quick look at how the top ten will probably shake out. There might be some movement within each tier, but I’m pretty happy with the players that make up each grouping.
- Tier 1: Connecticut JR OF George Springer – South Carolina JR OF Jackie Bradley – Miami-Dade CC SO OF Brian Goodwin
- Tier 2: Louisiana State JR OF Mikie Mahtook – Kansas State JR OF Nick Martini – Alabama JR OF Taylor Dugas
- Tier 3: Valparaiso JR OF Kyle Gaedele – Texas SO OF Cohl Walla – Clemson JR OF Will Lamb – Indiana JR OF Alex Dickerson
***
I’m also trying to get back into the habit of doing more organic writing here on the site. I love putting together rankings because it gives me the opportunity to research and compile notes on hundreds of prospects from around the country, but, let’s be honest, rankings alone don’t make for interesting reading. Because I’ve spent weeks immersed in the world of college outfielders, what better way to start my stream of consciousness ramblings than with a quick mystery player comparison between two highly regarded college outfield prospects? I like this particular comparison because the two prospects are so different stylistically, yet similarly rated by many. I also like the comparison because both players seem to really understand their own strengths and weaknesses really well and, subsequently, do what they do well really, really well.
- Player A: potential plus hit tool; line drive machine; gap power upside; leadoff man profile with above-average speed and good plate discipline; solid defender in CF; average at best throwing arm that grades out higher in terms of accuracy than strength; good track record with wood; great athlete with a pro body; 6-2, 175 pounds
Half Glass Full: Capable center fielder and irritating (to the opposition, naturally) leadoff man with double digit home run pop
Half Glass Empty: Modest power upside fails to manifest professionally; as a result, overall hit tool and plate discipline suffer against professional pitching
- Player B: great physical strength; plus raw power; plus bat speed; average speed; average arm; good range in a corner; pitch recognition, or lack thereof, could make or break him; 6-2, 195 pounds
Half Glass Full: Pitch recognition and overall approach at plate improves to the point his plus power allows him blossom as an above-average everyday corner outfielder
Half Glass Empty: Awesome power goes to waste as 4A slugger due to Jeff Francoeur-level plate discipline
***
1. Can you guess the prospects? Neither are listed in the top ten above, by the way…
2. Which prospect do you prefer? Speed, defense, and patience? Or brute strength and plus raw power?
3. Forced to choose, would you rather have tiger’s blood or Adonis DNA? There is only one correct answer to this one…
College Outfielders
Things have been relatively quiet around here of late because, genius that I am, I decided to leave the largest player groupings — outfield and pitching — as the last set of 2011 college prospect rankings. I’m going on two solid weeks right now of configuring just the outfield list and I’m happy to finally announce the rankings will be published shortly. In the meantime, some quick figures that show just how crazy it is paring down the crowded college outfield player pool…
- Current Word Document size: 5,740 words, or 18 pages in size 14 font (nice and big so I can view three pages at once at 50% zoom)
- Current number of players listed: 225, not counting the handful of junior college/small school guys I need more info on
Meta-posts like this where I talk about how much work I’ve been putting in on a ranking without actually delivering any worthwhile content are extremely obnoxious. I’m sorry. To begin to make amends, here’s an extremely (extremely) unfinished look at the prospects that rank at certain random benchmark spots on the list. I’ll use the numbers retired by the Detroit Lions (7, 20, 22, 37, 56, 85) to serve this purpose. In order, a special thanks to Dutch Clark, Barry Sanders, Bobby Layne, Doak Walker, Joe Schmidt, and Chuck Hughes for apparently being so damn good at football.
7. Clemson JR OF Will Lamb
20. TCU JR OF Brance Rivera
22. Miami SO OF Zeke DeVoss
37. Western Kentucky JR OF Kes Carter
56. Southern JR OF Rodarrick Jones
85. Stetson JR OF Spencer Theisen
Batted Ball Data 2011
Requirements for this are super simple: 1) pitchers must be eligible for the 2011 MLB Draft, 2) pitchers must have allowed 15 batted balls in play, 3) pitchers must either be above or below my arbitrarily decided upon standards (over 75% ground ball percentage, under 40% ground ball percentage). It should also be noted that it has only been two weeks, so, really, we’re going on about as little meaningful data as possible here. First, the ground ball machines…
Arizona JR RHP Kyle Simon: 92.0%
Texas A&M JR RHP John Stilson: 91.3%
Oregon State JR RHP Sam Gaviglio: 80.8%
Villanova JR RHP Kyle McMyne: 77.8%
Connecticut SR LHP Elliot Glynn: 77.3%
Oregon JR RHP Madison Boer: 75.0%
UAB SR RHP Ryan Woolley: 75.0%
Simon and Stilson have combined for 44 ground balls out of 48 batted ball outs. That’s crazy. Stilson’s power stuff has gotten plenty of pub, but Simon’s underrated grounder-inducing repertoire (plus fastball movement, good splitter, much improved slider) should have him moving up draft boards this spring. Extra credit for the lefthanded Glynn cracking the list.
UCLA JR RHP Gerrit Cole: 38.1%
Alabama JR LHP Adam Morgan: 31.3%
North Carolina SR RHP Patrick Johnson: 30.0%
North Carolina State JR RHP Cory Mazzoni: 29.6%
I have no explanation why Cole doesn’t get more ground ball outs. Going off memory, I’m pretty sure he had a very low ground ball percentage last year as well.
Quick Statistical Look at 2011 MLB Draft Pitching Prospects
In absolutely no particular order, 2011 draft prospects that finished last season with over 10 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, minimum 50 total innings pitched. For reference’s sake, prospects expected to go in the top three rounds are in bold…
Kentucky JR RHP Alex Meyer
Missouri State JR RHP Dan Kickham
Cal State Fullerton JR RHP Noe Ramirez
Virginia SR RHP Tyler Wilson
Maryland SR RHP Brett Harman
Vanderbilt JR RHP Sonny Gray
Texas A&M JR RHP John Stilson
Texas JR RHP Taylor Jungmann
Baylor JR RHP Logan Verrett
UCLA JR RHP Gerrit Cole
UCLA JR RHP Trevor Bauer
Washington JR RHP Andrew Kittredge
Georgia Tech JR LHP Jed Bradley
Virginia JR LHP/1B Danny Hultzen
Mississippi JR LHP Matt Crouse
Stanford JR LHP Brett Mooneyham
Arizona State JR LHP Mitchell Lambson
TCU SO LHP Matt Purke
Northeastern JR LHP Andrew Leenhouts
Best Bats of College Baseball’s Opening Weekend (2/18/11 to 2/20/11)
1. Arguably the biggest story to come out of college baseball’s opening weekend (from a prospect standpoint…and before news of Stanford JR LHP Brett Mooneyham’s season-ending finger injury came to the surface) centered on the decision to have Vanderbilt JR 3B Jason Esposito play shortstop. Bigger still, he went out and played it well. Fun question of the day: if Esposito can show to scouts that he can at least play a league average big league shortstop, then he’ll go [fill-in-the-blank] in the 2011 MLB Draft. Top half of the first round, no doubt…right? Top ten? Higher? I know Ryan Zimmerman is the name often thrown around when talking Rice JR 3B Anthony Rendon, but I think it is a really natural comparison for Esposito.
2. Other notable position “switches”: LSU 3B FR JaCoby Jones played 2B, Tulane JR C Jeremy Schaffer played 3B (a spot where he has some prior experience), and Washington SR 1B Troy Scott played 3B (ditto). Schaffer and Scott are mid-round guys here in 2011, but Jones has first round upside in 2013. I want to sit down and do preliminary rankings for 2012 and 2013 sometime before this June. In a vacuum, Jones has top ten potential, but I’ll need to see where he stacks up in what looks to be a strong 2013 draft class.
3. The LSU staff has three years to move JaCoby Jones around the infield, and, as mentioned, Schaffer and Scott are mid-round guys at best. That leaves the position switch with the most immediate and significant draft prospect consequence as the move of Utah JR C CJ Cron playing first base all weekend long. The switch was not entirely unexpected – Cron’s defense behind the plate has never been his strong suit, plus he has played 1B for the Utes in the past – but the buzz surrounding it makes it seem less and less likely that Cron will don the tools of ignorance much at all in 2011.
A few completely random interesting hitting lines of the weekend, complete with equally random commentary…
College of Charleston JR “C” Rob Kral (2011): 667/714/778 (6-9, 2B, RBI, 5 R, 4 BB/0 K)
- Kral may not be a catcher professionally, but, man, can he hit. Great patience and great power typically leads to great things…
North Carolina State JR C Pratt Maynard (2011): 538/571/692 (7-13, 2 2B, 5 RBI, 3 R)
Mississippi SR C Miles Hamblin (2011): 444/643/778 (4-9, HR, 4 RBI, 4 R, 3 BB/3 K, 3/3 SB)
Oklahoma SO 2B Max White (2012): 467/556/667 (7-15, 3 2B, 6 R, 4 RBI, 3 HBP, 1/1 SB)
- As great as that line looks, White’s defense at second drew the most praise over the weekend. Pretty amazing considering White is a converted outfield learning the position as he goes.
Tennessee JR 2B Khayyan Norfork (2011): 556/667/1.222 (5-9, HR, 3B, 2B, 4 RBI, 3 R, 1/2 SB)
- I ignored all of the positive buzz coming out of Tennessee’s fall/winter practices and, even though it has only been one weekend, I regret it. I did say this: “Khayyan Norfork might just be the player primed to make the biggest rise up draft boards of the players listed.” Really nice blend of speed, pop, and defense…
Florida SO SS Nolan Fontana (2012): 750/786/833 (9-12, 2B, 5 R, 2 HBP, K, 1/1 SB)
Clemson JR SS Brad Miller (2011): 375/643/375 (3-8, 5 R, 2 RBI, 6 BB/0 K, 4/4 SB)
- Didn’t have the power numbers of many players on the list, but easy to love that BB/K ratio.
Texas Tech JR SS Kelby Tomlinson (2011): 583/667/583 (7-12, 6 RBI, 3 R, 5 BB/1 K, 5/6 SB)
Arizona State JR 3B Riccio Torrez (2011): 462/462/1.231 (6-13, 3 HR, 2B, 7 RBI, 4 R, 2-2 SB)
Oklahoma JR 3B Garrett Buechele (2011): 625/700/1.188 (10-16, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 4 R)
Texas A&M JR 3B Matt Juengel (2011): 455/500/1.364 (5-11, 2 HR, 2 3B, 7 RBI, 5 R)
- More evidence that shows how deep this year’s group of college third basemen is; Torrez was ranked 7th, Buechele was ranked 15th, and Juengel was 23rd.
Texas FR 3B Erich Weiss (2013): 818/824/1.273 (9-11, 2 3B, 2B, 7 RBI, 6 R, 5 BB/0 K, 1/1 SB)
Southern Carolina JR OF Jackie Bradley (2011): 583/615/1.083 (7-12, HR, 3 2B, 3 RBI, 4 R)
UAB JR OF Jamal Austin (2011): 462/462/538 (6-13, 2B, RBI, 2 R, 3/4 SB)
Kent State SR OF Ben Klafczynski (2011): 538/571/538 (7-13, RBI, 2 R)
Stanford FR OF Austin Wilson (2013): 500/500/750 (6-12, HR, 4 RBI, R, 1/1 SB)
- With the first pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, the New York Yankees select…
LSU JR OF Mikie Mahtook (2011): 444/545/1.778 (4-9, 4 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R)
- I tried to limit the list to one player per college, but leaving fellow Tigers JaCoby Jones and Tyler Hanover off pained me greatly. Mahtook’s decision to only hit home runs could really pay off this year…
Honorable Mention! Virginia SR C Kenny Swab (2011): 000/571/000 (0-6, 5 R, 6 BB, 2 HBP, 2/2 SB)
Honorable Mention 2.0! Any JMU player. Five different players slugged over 1.100 over the weekend: Tenaglia, Herbek, Foltz, Knight, and Lowery. I was most impressed with SO OF Johnny Bladel’s 533/720/733 (6/3 BB/K and 5/5 SB) line. He’s my very early super sneaky 2012 first round possibility.
2011 MLB Draft – Top 30 College Catcher Follow List
I’m pretty sure this is my favorite list so far because of how wide open it is. For the sake of discussion, let’s say the consensus industry top five consists of Cron, O’Brien, Bandy, Susac, and McCann, in some order. Assuming that’s true, how much really separates the sixth best prospect (using my list as a guide, that could be Kometani, Casali, Maynard) from a prospect currently ranked in the mid- to late-teens (any of the smaller school prospects work, so insert names like Rosado, Dowd, and Escalante here)? Without getting too much into my relatively low ranking of McCann (for now), I can at least acknowledge that this general viewpoint (the lack of separation between any two prospects within the top 20ish) played a large role.
Judging catching is also fun because it opens up the always entertaining debate of floor vs. ceiling. Top ranked CJ Cron has a high ceiling (plus bat, capable catcher), but a low floor (if it turns out he can’t catch as a pro, will the bat play anywhere else?). Steve Rodriguez, a player ranked way down at 17th, has a much lower ceiling (plus defender, just enough bat to play everyday), but a more traditional backup catcher skill set that should serve him well when teams come looking for a cheap, defense-first backup catcher. What an interesting group of catchers…
- Utah JR C CJ Cron
- San Diego JR C Zach Kometani
- Bethune-Cookman JR C Peter O’Brien
- Arizona JR C Jett Bandy
- Vanderbilt SR C Curt Casali
- North Carolina State JR C Pratt Maynard
- North Carolina JR C Jacob Stallings
- Oregon State SO C Andrew Susac
- Oklahoma JR C Tyler Ogle
- Kentucky JR C Mike Williams
- Florida JR C Ben McMahan
- Pittsburgh SR C Kevan Smith
- California JR C Chadd Krist
- College of Charleston JR C Rob Kral
- LSU-Eunice FR C Hommy Rosado
- Arkansas JR C James McCann
- UCLA JR C Steve Rodriguez
- Franklin Pierce JR C Mike Dowd
- Chipola JC SO C Geno Escalante
- Central Florida JR C Beau Taylor
- Tulane JR C Jeremy Schaffer
- Samford JR C Brandon Miller
- Virginia JR C John Hicks
- Georgetown SR C Erick Fernandez
- Wofford JR C Mac Doyle
- Michigan JR C Coley Crank
- Western Kentucky SR C Matt Rice
- Virginia SR C Kenny Swab
- Auburn SR C Tony Caldwell
- Mississippi JR C Taylor Hightower
2011 MLB Draft – Top 30 College Catcher Follow List (Honorable Mentions)
Though generally regarded as one of the weakest, if not the weakest, position groups of this year’s college class, this year’s crop of college catching intrigues me all the same. What the 2011 catching group lacks in sure fire first round talent it makes up for it with tremendous depth. If it is a future backup catcher you want, this is the class for you. I think I’ve talked about this before, but my theory on what teams look for in a good backup catcher is simple. Teams look for a) all or nothing hitters with plus power, b) acclaimed defenders, typically with plus arms, and c) well-rounded prospects with scouting grades between 40 to 50 (roughly) in at least four of the five graded tools. I realize that describes a wide range of prospects, but it’s all I’ve got for now. Here are a few of the players who just missed the top 30…
- Cal State Bakersfield JR C Jeremy Rodriguez | tremendous plate discipline, but no standout physical tools
- Valdosta State JR C Christian Glisson | former Georgia Bulldog offers well-rounded tool set with solid defense, line drive producing swing, and enough power to keep pitchers honest
- North Carolina State SR C Chris Schaeffer | similar to Glisson, but swing will need some adjusting at next level
- Baylor JR C Joey Hainsfurther | converted infielder needs more experience behind plate; despite this, shows very good defensive tools
- Stetson JR C Nick Rickles | natural receiver, but bat speed has been questioned
- Mississippi SR C Miles Hamblin | once touted by me as a potential top three round candidate (Spring ’09), still shows above-average raw power and average defensive ability
- Pepperdine JR C Nate Johnson | possesses one of the sweetest swings in college ball
- Arizona State SR C Xorge Carrillo | heads into 2011 healthy and looking to get drafted for a fourth time
- East Carolina JR C Zach Wright | strong arm, untapped upside in bat
- Central Arizona SO C Max Rossiter | on short list of top 2011 junior college position players; like his bat more than fellow JC prospect Hornback
- San Jacinto SO C Ryan Hornback | on short list on top 2011 junior college position players; like his glove/arm more than fellow JC prospect Rossiter
- Fordham SR C Chris Walker | coming off really strong junior season (393/440/607 – 17 BB/16 K – 219 AB)
- Marshall SR C Victor Gomez | big fastball hitting power hitter with some questions about his eventual defensive home
- East Tennessee State JR C Derek Trent | quick bat and above-average athleticism
- James Madison JR C Jake Lowery | productive, good defender
- Illinois JR C Adam Davis | as much potential as any to rise up boards this spring; plus throwing arm with plus upside as defender
- Miami JR C David Villasuso | similar profile as Gomez, big power/strong arm/may or may not have hands to catch regularly
- Connecticut SR C Joe Pavone | outside candidate for spot near the bottom of top 30 before tearing his ACL last week
- Florida State SR C Rafael Lopez | excellent prep player who has been merely good collegiately
- Texas A&M SR C Kevin Gonzalez | outstanding defender with limited upside with bat; made great strides with stick in 2010, so continued development can’t be ruled out
2011 MLB Draft – Top 50 Middle Infield Prospects
Just like last Monday’s combined list of corner infielders, expect this time we do it up the middle. If I had to ballpark it, I’d say there could be about one dozen or so future big league starters and then a whole lot of potential utility guys. Here’s the plan for the week ahead:
Monday: Top 50 College MIF Ranking
Tuesday: Top 30 College C Follow List (Honorable Mentions)
Wednesday: Top 30 College C Follow List
Thursday: Top 30 College C Follow List Commentary
Friday: Wide open, but I was leaning towards cobbling together some kind of quick college baseball preview…
After all that is done, I’ll finally tackle college OFs, RHPs, and LHPs. I know things have gotten very list heavy around here of late, but we’re almost through. Until then, another list!
- North Carolina JR 2B Levi Michael
- Hawaii JR 2B Kolten Wong
- Clemson JR SS Brad Miller
- Arizona State JR 2B Zack MacPhee
- Coastal Carolina JR SS Taylor Motter
- St. John’s JR SS Joe Panik
- Connecticut JR SS Nick Ahmed
- Cal State Fullerton JR 2B Joe Terry
- Coastal Carolina JR 2B Tommy LaStella
- Louisville JR 2B Ryan Wright
- Michigan SO SS Derek Dennis
- Missouri State JR 2B Kevin Medrano
- UCLA JR SS Tyler Rahmatulla
- TCU JR SS Taylor Featherston
- Oregon JR SS KC Serna
- McNeese State JR 2B Jace Peterson
- Virginia Military Institute SR SS Sam Roberts
- Texas Tech JR SS Kelby Tomlinson
- Long Beach State JR SS Kirk Singer
- Southeast Missouri State JR SS Kenton Parmley
- Cal Poly JR 2B Matt Jensen
- Florida International JR 2B Jeremy Patton
- Florida State JR 2B Sherman Johnson
- Virginia JR 2B Keith Werman
- Siena JR 2B Dan Paolini
- Lake Erie College SS Ryan Rua
- Florida International JR 2B Garrett Wittels
- California JR SS Marcus Semien
- Vanderbilt SO SS Sam Lind
- Fresno State SR 2B Danny Muno
- Troy SR SS Adam Bryant
- Army SR SS Clint Moore
- South Carolina JR SS Peter Mooney
- Georgia Tech JR 2B Connor Winn
- Bowling Green JR 2B Jon Berti
- Tampa JR SS Taylor Wrenn
- James Madison SR SS David Herbek
- Marist JR 2B Jon Schwind
- Southeastern Louisiana JR SS Justin Boudreaux
- North Carolina A&T JR 2B Marquis Riley
- Auburn SR 3B Dan Gamache
- Virginia Tech JR SS Ronnie Shaban
- LSU JR SS Austin Nola
- Texas JR SS Brandon Loy
- LSU JR SS Tyler Hanover
- Southern SR 2B Curtis Wilson
- Towson SR 2B Chris Wychock
- Virginia Tech SR SS Tim Smalling
- TCU SR 2B Jerome Pena
- Oklahoma JR SS Caleb Bushyhead
2011 MLB Draft – College SS Commentary
Brad Miller and Joe Panik ranking in the top three is completely unoriginal. As a man who ate a delicious PB&J every day from second to sixth grade knows, believe me when I say sometimes boring works. Of course, even a simple-minded PB&J fan like me knows you have to mix it up every now and then. I’m not talking a fluffernutter level of radical change here; think more along the lines of adding potato chips for that extra salty crunch. This list’s chips comes in the form of one Taylor Motter. Motter’s defense is outstanding and his knowledge of the strike zone rivals that of any of his peers. I think his 2011 season and subsequent draft standing will remind many of what Kansas State’s Carter Jurica did in 2010.
Nick Ahmed (who I actually prefer on the mound, believe it or not) and Derek Dennis are both tools gambles at this point. Either player is capable of a Christian Colon rise up the board this spring, though it seems unlikely a team will reach on either quite the way the Royals did on Colon. I prefer the bats of Featherston and Serna over those of Ahmed and Dennis, but the much greater possibility of the latter pair playing an above-average shortstop professionally ultimately gave them the edge.
You could also lump Sam Roberts in with the aforementioned Featherston/Serna group. The VMI star has produced every year and shows no signs of stopping heading into 2011. He has many of the archetypal utility player attributes, including an arm strong enough for third, the athleticism to play up the middle, and more than sufficient power to the gaps. He’s not the only senior mid-round shortstop candidate; Adam Bryant (finally 100% healthy and showing above-average raw power), Clint Moore (very good defender with the makeup you’d expect from an Army man), and David Herbek (poor man’s Bill Mueller upside) all have the talent to find a home on a big league bench if everything breaks right.
Kelby Tomlinson, Sam Lind, and Peter Mooney are all very much on the scouting radar despite not having a single major college at bat among them. Tomlinson and Mooney, he of the potential plus-plus glove, both look like starters from day one. Austin Nola, Brandon Loy, and Tyler Hanover all could have been back end of the top ten prospects in a different year.
It wouldn’t be a college shortstop list without the requisite Long Beach State prospect. This year it’s Kirk Singer’s turn in the spotlight. He possesses many of the same talents of last year’s third rounder, Devin Lohman, right down to the strong arm, above-average hands, and questions about the bat.
2011 MLB Draft – Top 30 College SS Follow List
The difference between Miller, Motter, and Panik is slight enough that ranking them was nothing more than a flip of my very rare, three-sided coin. I feel much more strongly that Miller, Motter, and Panik are in fact the top three college shortstop prospects. All three players have the defensive tools to stick at short (Miller is probably the most questionable, but count me as a believer), and, at minimum, all profile as average big league players capable of playing anywhere in the infield as a pro. After that, things are wide open. Shortstop and catcher are both really tricky positions to judge as an outsider because many pro teams have very specific types of players they target at those spots. In this case, I tried to err on the side of defense, athleticism, and likelihood of staying at the position professionally, but a few prospects with more bat than glove (e.g. Featherston and Serna) offered skill sets too intriguing to ignore. I’m hoping tomorrow’s expanded commentary on this list will shed some light on the thought process behind many of the picks, but I’m happy to answer any questions in the meantime. Until then, here’s what I’ve got…
- Clemson JR SS Brad Miller
- Coastal Carolina JR SS Taylor Motter
- St. John’s JR SS Joe Panik
- Connecticut JR SS Nick Ahmed
- Michigan SO SS Derek Dennis
- UCLA JR SS Tyler Rahmatulla
- TCU JR SS Taylor Featherston
- Oregon JR SS KC Serna
- Virginia Military Institute SR SS Sam Roberts
- Texas Tech JR SS Kelby Tomlinson
- Long Beach State JR SS Kirk Singer
- Southeast Missouri State JR SS Kenton Parmley
- Lake Erie College SS Ryan Rua
- California JR SS Marcus Semien
- Vanderbilt SO SS Sam Lind
- Troy SR SS Adam Bryant
- Army SR SS Clint Moore
- South Carolina JR SS Peter Mooney
- LSU JR SS Austin Nola
- Texas JR SS Brandon Loy
- LSU JR SS Tyler Hanover
- Tampa JR SS Taylor Wrenn
- James Madison SR SS David Herbek
- Southeastern Louisiana JR SS Justin Boudreaux
- Virginia Tech JR SS Ronnie Shaban
- Virginia Tech SR SS Tim Smalling
- Oklahoma JR SS Caleb Bushyhead
- South Florida JR SS Sam Mende
- Minnesota JR SS AJ Pettersen
- Wichita State JR SS Tyler Grimes
2011 MLB Draft – Top 30 College SS Follow List (Honorable Mentions)
I realize I say something similar to the following every time a new list is published, but this time it is true: compiling the 2011 list of top college shortstop prospects took me longer than any other position so far. Here are a few players that didn’t make the cut, but are still interesting enough to follow during the 2011 season. I’d bet that only the seniors on this particular list will get serious draft consideration this June (and even then, we’re talking late round interest at best) while the juniors get their time in the sun in June of 2012. Despite the lack of potential pro talent, there are some excellent college players here that deserve notice.
Illinois JR SS Josh Parr
Missouri State JR SS Travis McComack
Florida Atlantic SR SS Nick DelGuidice
Bethune-Cookman JR SS Alejandro Sanchez
Liberty JR SS Matt Williams
Dartmouth JR SS Joe Sclafani
Wagner SR SS Brian Martutartus
Tennessee JR SS Zach Osborne
Maryland JR SS Alfredo Rodriguez
Cal State Fullerton SO SS Matt Orloff
UC Irvine JR SS DJ Crumlich
Ball State SR SS TJ Baumet
Kansas SR SS Brandon Macias
Radford JR SS Jeff Kemp
Utah SR SS Michael Beltran
Oregon State JR SS Carter Bell
UNLV SR SS Richie Jimenez
Kent State JR SS Jimmy Rider
BYU JR SS Austin Hall
Jacksonville State SR SS Blake Seguin
Western Kentucky JR SS Logan Robbins
Arkansas JR SS Tim Carver
UC Riverside SR SS Trevor Hairgrove
Sonoma State SR SS Alex Todd
Three names that pained me more than others to leave off the top thirty list: Parr, McComack, and Sclafani. Parr is a really good athlete with plus defensive tools, but his inability to control the strike zone presents a concern going forward. There is enough rawness in his hitting approach to think he is due for that big sophomore to junior year breakout at the plate. He definitely has the potential to make me look stupid for not finding a spot for him earlier. McComack is another good defender with a plus arm. He has a lot of the required skills (arm for third, range for short, instincts at second) needed to thrive as a defensive-first utility infielder if everything breaks right. Sclafani has the potential to emerge as a premium 2012 senior sign after he graduates from Dartmouth.
Underclassmen Osborne, Rodriguez, Orloff, and Crumlich all are well above-average with the leather, but find themselves in similar positions as 2010 juniors DelGuidice and Macias; if they follow the same pattern, we’ll be talking about that quartet once again in 2012.
Baumet and Bell are both talented players without long-term professional defensive homes. Baumet’s outstanding arm may eventually get him tried on the mound, but Bell seems like he could be out of luck professionally.
The Baseball Draft Report 