The Baseball Draft Report

2016 MLB Draft – Final Board (College Shortstops)

1 – Florida Atlantic JR SS/RHP CJ Chatham: above-average range; above-average to plus arm strength, very accurate; hits it everywhere; above-average to plus power upside; would be outstanding at third if forced to shift over; easy player to dream on; could shift to mound if hole in swing proves problematic thanks to 90-93 FB and above-average SL; FAVORITE; 6-4, 185 pounds

2014: .300/.324/.415 – 8 BB/39 K – 1/2 SB – 200 AB
2015: .335/.361/.496 – 10 BB/28 K – 3/6 SB – 230 AB
2016: .365/.432/.568 – 23 BB/34 K – 2/3 SB – 241 AB

2 – Virginia JR SS/3B Daniel Pinero: plus defensive tools, though I admittedly like them more than most; really impressive range; average or better arm; average at best speed; has made continuous improvements as a hitter; similar boom/bust profile as CJ Chatham with a wide range of scouting opinions on his skill set; 6-5, 210 pounds

2014: .261/.372/.286 – 36 BB/31 K – 10/13 SB – 241 AB
2015: .308/.409/.419 – 39 BB/37 K – 9/11 SB – 253 AB
2016: .340/.441/.500 – 39 BB/30 K – 5/11 SB – 212 AB

3 – Arizona State JR SS/2B Colby Woodmansee: plus arm; reliable glove; impressive range; quick hands; can make all the plays and then some; quick bat; average to above-average power upside; average to above-average speed; good athlete; could also play 3B; one of the best and safest all-around shortstop prospects in the class, arguably the “truest” shortstop of the college crop; FAVORITE; 6-3, 200 pounds

2014: .200/.255/.318 – 6 BB/22 K – 1/2 SB – 85 AB
2015: .308/.355/.454 – 20 BB/39 K – 2/5 SB – 240 AB
2016: .269/.361/.443 – 30 BB/35 K – 1/4 SB – 219 AB

4 – Tulane JR SS Stephen Alemais: legit glove, lots of range; good athlete; above-average to plus arm; above-average to plus speed; average hit tool; some power upside, but not a big part of his game; borderline starter due to glove if he can keep making adjustments as a hitter; FAVORITE; 6-1, 190 pounds

2014: .242/.308/.321 – 12 BB/20 K – 11/12 SB – 165 AB
2015: .312/.361/.392 – 16 BB/25 K – 27/37 SB – 250 AB
2016: .317/.370/.412 – 18 BB/28 K – 18/23 SB – 199 AB

5 – Georgia Tech JR SS Connor Justus: above-average to plus glove; average to above-average arm; bat coming around in a hurry; ascending player with a chance to play every day; 5-11, 190 pounds

2014: .254/.342/.321 – 22 BB/43 K – 1/7 SB – 209 AB
2015: .249/.349/.308 – 23 BB/35 K – 5/5 SB – 185 AB
2016: .324/.442/.486 – 41 BB/38 K – 9/12 SB – 247 AB

6 – Missouri JR SS/3B Ryan Howard: average raw power; good defensive tools; above-average arm; steady yet unspectacular at short, could be better at third or second; average at best speed; profiles as bat-first utility player if drafting team deems his defense not good enough for regular duty at short; 6-1, 200 pounds

2014: .237/.340/.302 – 21 BB/20 K – 1/1 SB – 169 AB
2015: .308/.369/.433 – 18 BB/24 K – 6/11 SB – 224 AB
2016: .295/.381/.433 – 29 BB/33 K – 10/15 SB – 217 AB

7 – Creighton JR SS/2B Nicky Lopez: good athlete; plus speed; strong and accurate arm; really good glove; enough pop and patience to get him to the big leagues; 5-9, 170 pounds

2014: .276/.392/.314 – 24 BB/21 K – 7/9 SB – 156 AB
2015: .246/.321/.335 – 14 BB/14 K – 7/8 SB – 167 AB
2016: .306/.417/.444 – 26 BB/13 K – 11/13 SB – 196 AB

8 – Long Beach State JR SS/2B Garrett Hampson: plus to plus-plus speed, though others like it less; average hit tool; plus defensive tools; average to above-average arm, could push him to 2B on his lesser days; plus range; plus athlete; promising yet still unproven bat; little power; special instincts for the game; reminds me some of Kevin Newman defensively; 5-11, 180 pounds

2014: .308/.338/.392 – 14 BB/39 K – 9/15 SB – 240 AB
2015: .296/.368/.366 – 20 BB/35 K – 18/22 SB – 216 AB
2016: .307/.390/.402 – 28 BB/37 K – 23/31 SB – 244 AB

9 – Pepperdine JR SS Manny Jefferson: steady glove, flashes more; could be better fit at third base athletically; above-average arm is more than enough for either spot; average speed; best is yet to come as a hitter; very intriguing all-around talent; 6-3, 170 pounds

2014: .227/.254/.301 – 8 BB/37 K – 1/2 SB – 176 AB
2015: .250/.319/.378 – 19 BB/46 K – 2/4 SB – 196 AB
2016: .277/.361/.515 – 25 BB/50 K – 2/2 SB – 202 AB

10 – Oklahoma State SR SS/2B Donnie Walton: steady glove at multiple spots, flashes better; average speed; average arm; good approach; hit tool will carry him; won’t be a star (likely not even a starter), but I’d be surprised if he wasn’t a big leaguer; BHH; 5-10, 175 pounds

2013: .298/.381/.367 – 25 BB/30 K – 7/10 SB – 188 AB
2014: .310/.407/.405 – 38 BB/36 K – 7/10 SB – 252 AB
2015: .326/.410/.481 – 22 BB/23 K – 3/3 SB – 135 AB
2016: .352/.447/.466 – 31 BB/29 K – 13/17 SB – 219 AB

11 – Oregon State JR SS Trever Morrison: really good glove; above-average arm; above-average to plus speed; good athlete; has experience in CF; has all the athletic tools to play the position, so confidence in his bat will determine his future role (regular or utility); interesting older (pre-breakout) Brandon Crawford comp; 6-0, 175 pounds

2014: .225/.350/.289 – 34 BB/50 K – 8/9 SB – 204 AB
2015: .317/.412/.400 – 19 BB/23 K – 2/4 SB – 145 AB
2016: .284/.345/.402 – 15 BB/38 K – 1/3 SB – 194 AB

12 – Mississippi SO SS/2B Tate Blackman: average power upside;; steady glove; above-average to plus speed, others like it less; great athlete; average arm may keep him at second, but I believe in him at short for now; 6-0, 190 pounds

2015: .197/.293/.254 – 10 BB/32 K – 2/2 SB – 122 AB
2016: .322/.392/.435 – 30 BB/38 K – 3/5 SB – 230 AB

13 – UMBC SR SS Kevin Lachance: above-average to plus speed, some have it even higher; steady glove; average pop; average at best arm; checks a lot of boxes as a potential big league utility infield contributor; 6-3, 185 pounds

2013: .251/.313/.349 – 14 BB/23 K – 13/19 SB – 175 AB
2014: .256/.345/.300 – 23 BB/20 K – 12/14 SB – 180 AB
2015: .270/.362/.355 – 28 BB/26 K – 29/34 SB – 211 AB
2016: .373/.451/.539 – 28 BB/22 K – 28/32 SB – 204 AB

14 – Itawamba CC SS Delvin Zinn: plus athlete; above-average to plus arm; more advanced approach than led to believe; offensive upside, especially long-term power output, remains a question mark; 5-10, 175 pounds

2016: .411/.464/.457 – 16 BB/14 K – 7/8 SB – 175 AB

15 – Miami-Dade FR SS Santiago Espinal: good approach; average or better hit tool; average or better arm; steady glove; above-average speed; 5-10, 170 pounds

2016: .432/.492/.562 – 20 BB/11 K – 15/20 SB – 162 AB

16 – State College of Florida FR SS/2B Ethan Skender: above-average hit tool; chance for average power; average arm could push him to 2B; 5-11, 175 pounds

2016: .374/.425/.615 – 12 BB/17 K – 12/15 SB – 174 AB

17 – Wright State JR SS Mitch Roman: strong arm; above-average hit tool; good speed; underrated all-around skill set; 6-0, 170 pounds

2015: .339/.377/.421 – 17 BB/38 K – 9/14 SB – 254 AB
2016: .342/.410/.437 – 22 BB/26 K – 24/27 SB – 222 AB

18 – Middle Tennessee State JR SS Riley Delgado: steady glove; love the hit tool and approach, but many of my misses tend to be on guys with similar power deficiencies; 5-10, 175 pounds

2016: .388/.492/.437 – 34 BB/12 K – 4/7 SB – 206 AB

19 – Sacred Heart JR SS Zack Short: above-average hit tool; really impressive glove; good speed; real power upside; FAVORITE; 5-10, 170 pounds

2014: .324/.417/.407 – 30 BB/32 K – 11/18 SB – 204 AB
2015: .305/.424/.535 – 34 BB/36 K – 12/16 SB – 200 AB
2016: .241/.352/.399 – 35 BB/52 K – 18/21 SB – 203 AB

20 – Miami SR SS Brandon Lopez: have seen a plus arm, others have it average; good defender; really quick bat; slow and steady improvements as a hitter make him an appealing senior-sign utility prospect; 91 FB; 6-1, 165 pounds

2013: .249/.330/.271 – 20 BB/35 K – 5/7 SB – 181 AB
2014: .233/.320/.275 – 24 BB/27 K – 6/11 SB – 189 AB
2015: .303/.417/.382 – 29 BB/26 K – 1/2 SB – 165 AB
2016: .392/.467/.490 – 23 BB/26 K – 4/6 SB – 194 AB

21 – Cal State Fullerton JR SS/2B Timmy Richards: steady glove, but range doesn’t particularly excite; average arm; average to above-average speed; like the pop, but the approach needs cleaning up; 6-0, 180 pounds

2014: .215/.292/.215 – 7 BB/19 K – 1/1 SB – 65 AB
2015: .229/.375/.309 – 30 BB/42 K – 8/9 SB – 175 AB
2016: .279/.359/.470 – 23 BB/52 K – 10/12 SB – 215 AB

22 – Mississippi JR SS/2B Errol Robinson: well above-average to plus defender; lots of range; plus to plus-plus speed, others like it less (average to above-average); good athlete; average or better arm; good approach; sneaky pop, but track record of driving the ball is underwhelming; good pro coaching could help his game really take off; 5-11, 180 pounds

2014: .294/.371/.327 – 24 BB/32 K – 5/9 SB – 214 AB
2015: .297/.376/.364 – 26 BB/39 K – 6/9 SB – 209 AB
2016: .270/.326/.352 – 21 BB/38 K – 9/16 SB – 256 AB

23 – Patrick Henry CC SS Jonah McReynolds: plus arm; above-average speed; really good athlete; 5-11, 165 pounds

2016: .326/.483/.528 – 32 BB/42 K – 28/31 SB – 178 AB

24 – Tampa JR SS Kevin Santa: solid speed; lots of contact; good athlete; 5-11, 175 pounds

2016: .441/.504/.657 – 13 BB/6 K – 3/6 SB – 102 AB

25 – Oakland SR SS Mike Brosseau: good glove; patient hitter; 5-10, 200 pounds

2013: .252/.329/.291 – 17 BB/18 K – 1/4 SB – 151 AB
2014: .321/.383/.432 – 14 BB/9 K – 0/0 SB – 162 AB
2015: .287/.364/.470 – 17 BB/24 K – 6/9 SB – 202 AB
2016: .355/.452/.570 – 26 BB/24 K – 8/9 SB – 186 AB

26 – Quinnipiac JR SS/2B Matt Batten: really good glove; uses above-average speed well; 5-11, 170 pounds

2014: .260/.312/.315 – 14 BB/24 K – 10/15 SB – 200 AB
2015: .303/.357/.348 – 16 BB/24 K – 22/27 SB – 221 AB
2016: .344/.402/.467 – 20 BB/21 K – 20/28 SB – 212 AB

27 – Wagner JR SS Nick Mascelli: good glove; lots of contact; 5-7, 175 pounds

2014: .293/.392/.317 – 27 BB/23 K – 5/12 SB – 205 AB
2015: .304/.409/.372 – 29 BB/17 K – 4/6 SB – 191 AB
2016: .374/.414/.472 – 14 BB/11 K – 2/6 SB – 195 AB

28 – Lamar SR SS Stijn van derMeer: really strong glove; very little power; patient, pesky hitter; adept at working long counts, hitting with two strikes, and fouling tough pitches off; fun comp from his college coach: Ozzie Guillen; 6-3, 170 pounds

2015: .351/.401/.441 – 19 BB/13 K – 6/9 SB – 222 AB
2016: .376/.471/.441 – 38 BB/15 K – 7/12 SB – 213 AB

29 – Central Michigan SO SS Zach McKinstry: strong hit tool; above-average speed; really good glove; 6-1, 160 pounds

2015: .317/.390/.362 – 23 BB/32 K – 8/9 SB – 218 AB
2016: .325/.415/.383 – 30 BB/31 K – 12/17 SB – 243 AB

30 – Clemson JR SS/2B Eli White: great athlete; above-average to plus speed; good defensive tools; plenty of range; quick bat; 6-3, 180 pounds

2014: .143/.244/.200 – 4 BB/13 K – 1/1 SB – 35 AB
2015: .297/.380/.405 – 25 BB/57 K – 11/17 SB – 232 AB
2016: .272/.389/.380 – 39 BB/59 K – 24/30 SB – 250 AB

31 – Bradley SR SS Tyler Leffler: interesting bat; below-average speed; above-average arm; much improved defender; good athlete; 6-3, 190 pounds

2013: .298/.372/.377 – 13 BB/28 K – 4/5 SB – 151 AB
2014: .354/.464/.470 – 16 BB/25 K – 2/6 SB – 181 AB
2015: .193/.308/.255 – 23 BB/35 K – 4/6 SB – 192 AB
2016: .313/.402/.474 – 17 BB/25 K – 1/1 SB – 192 AB

32 – Harford CC SO SS Dominic DiSabatino: power upside; Maryland transfer; 6-5, 200 pounds

2016: .411/.519/.738 – 48 BB/36 K – 13/19 SB – 214 AB

33 – East Tennessee State JR SS/RHP Chris Cook: power upside; good speed; can also play 3B; strong arm; 6-1, 190 pounds

2014: .269/.341/.387 – 19 BB/25 K – 6/6 SB – 186 AB
2015: .338/.389/.474 – 19 BB/27 K – 8/13 SB – 228 AB
2016: .351/.385/.541 – 1 BB/5 K – 2/5 SB – 37 AB

34 – Toledo SR SS/2B Deion Tansel: steady glove; above-average to plus speed; 5-8, 150 pounds

2013: .302/.393/.343 – 18 BB/14 K – 10/12 SB – 169 AB
2014: .306/.374/.347 – 18 BB/11 K – 10/16 SB – 219 AB
2015: .324/.413/.388 – 12 BB/8 K – 12/18 SB – 170 AB
2016: .329/.401/.408 – 16 BB/9 K – 12/19 SB – 213 AB

35 – Louisiana JR SS/3B Joe Robbins: quality glove; good speed; 5-9, 200 pounds

2015: .230/.308/.327 – 12 BB/40 K – 3/6 SB – 165 AB
2016: .291/.389/.485 – 30 BB/45 K – 9/13 SB – 206 AB

36 – South Alabama rSO SS Drew LaBounty: good glove; patient bat; 5-7, 170 pounds

2014: .237/.351/.272 – 29 BB/33 K – 1/1 SB – 173 AB
2015: .371/.551/.400 – 11 BB/5 K – 0/0 SB – 35 AB
2016: .294/.450/.393 – 55 BB/35 K – 14/21 SB – 201 AB

37 – Mercer JR SS Matt Meeder: steady glove; smart hitter; 5-8, 155 pounds

2014: .259/.394/.278 – 9 BB/17 K – 0/2 SB – 54 AB
2015: .293/.464/.399 – 48 BB/36 K – 2/5 SB – 198 AB
2016: .279/.449/.373 – 47 BB/27 K – 1/3 SB – 204 AB

38 – New Mexico SR SS Jared Holley: plus glove; good speed; 5-8, 180 pounds

2013: .248/.365/.280 – 16 BB/22 K – 3/5 SB – 157 AB
2014: .314/.379/.358 – 7 BB/16 K – 3/4 SB – 137 AB
2015: .254/.342/.357 – 12 BB/24 K – 1/1 SB – 126 AB
2016: .347/.458/.494 – 26 BB/16 K – 5/7 SB – 176 AB

39 – Fresno State JR SS Scott Silva: plus defensive tools; 5-10, 180 pounds

2016: .357/.400/.521 – 10 BB/21 K – 1/3 SB – 140 AB

40 – San Jacinto SS/OF Donivan Lopez: plus speed; 6-0, 180 pounds

2016: .342/.380/.435 – 12 BB/11 K – 15/23 SB – 193 AB

41 – Belmont JR SS Tyler Walsh: plus speed; good athlete; good glove; approach leaves something to be desired; 6-5, 200 pounds

2014: .217/.328/.361 – 20 BB/58 K – 10/14 SB – 166 AB
2015: .278/.357/.417 – 22 BB/48 K – 15/20 SB – 223 AB
2016: .274/.336/.488 – 15 BB/72 K – 20/25 SB – 201 AB

42 – Xavier rJR SS/3B Andre Jernigan: strong; good athlete; good defensive tools; approach needs work; 6-0, 210 pounds

2015: .252/.304/.362 – 6 BB/44 K – 16/20 SB – 210 AB
2016: .262/.366/.573 – 23 BB/54 K – 6/9 SB – 206 AB

43 – Chipola JC SS/RHP Tekwaan Whyte: good athlete; strong arm; 87-92 FB; 76-80 CB; 77 SL; 6-1, 175 pounds

2016: .284/.365/.461 – 12 BB/13 K – 2/3 SB – 102 AB

44 – Ball State JR SS/RHP Alex Maloney: good athlete; strong arm; smart hitter; mid-80s FB; varies arm slot; 6-2, 190 pounds

2015: .256/.323/.370 – 23 BB/47 K – 6/8 SB – 219 AB
2016: .305/.399/.408 – 34 BB/34 K – 12/19 SB – 233 AB

45 – Eastern Kentucky SR SS/2B Doug Teegarden: steady glove; 6-0, 210 pounds

2013: .250/.384/.319 – 35 BB/20 K – 5/7 SB – 188 AB
2014: .244/.363/.342 – 27 BB/22 K – 11/14 SB – 193 AB
2015: .292/.445/.425 – 26 BB/19 K – 11/16 SB – 120 AB
2016: .317/.489/.519 – 29 BB/17 K – 2/4 SB – 104 AB

46 – Southeast Missouri State SR SS Branden Boggetto: interesting power upside; 5-11, 180 pounds

2015: .318/.396/.583 – 27 BB/40 K – 4/10 SB – 242 AB
2016: .344/.445/.518 – 34 BB/47 K – 8/9 SB – 218 AB

47  – Cal State Northridge rSR SS Yusuke Akitoshi: good athlete; steady glove; 6-1, 180 pounds

2015: .286/.367/.410 – 25 BB/51 K – 11/15 SB – 210 AB
2016: .290/.385/.415 – 24 BB/37 K – 23/25 SB – 200 AB

48 – Grand Canyon SR SS Paul Panaccione: steady glove; uses speed well; good approach; lots of contact; 5-10, 190 pounds

2014: .256/.314/.301 – 13 BB/23 K – 20/23 SB – 176 AB
2015: .376/.440/.493 – 26 BB/32 K – 7/12 SB – 221 AB
2016: .363/.473/.521 – 25 BB/14 K – 10/12 SB – 146 AB

49 – Hawaii SR SS Jacob Sheldon-Collins: good defender; has made strides as a hitter; 5-11, 185 pounds

2015: .295/.341/.355 – 7 BB/13 K – 2/2 SB – 166 AB
2016: .349/.407/.405 – 20 BB/17 K – 6/8 SB – 195 AB

50 – Grambling State JR SS Wesley Drain: good athlete; strong arm; 6-0, 190 pounds

2016: .263/.396/.421 – 35 BB/39 K – 27/29 SB – 190 AB

51 – Texas Tech rJR SS/2B Cory Raley: average at best arm; average at best range; still should be good enough to stick at SS; could be really good at 2B; plus to plus-plus speed; raw bat; great athlete; Texas A&M transfer; 6-2, 200 pounds

2015: .350/.408/.486 – 17 BB/34 K – 3/6 SB – 183 AB
2016: .333/.427/.489 – 36 BB/54 K – 18/18 SB – 225 AB

52 – Dallas Baptist JR SS/2B Camden Duzenack: sneaky pop; good glove; 5-8, 170 pounds

2014: .321/.383/.430 – 13 BB/25 K – 6/9 SB – 165 AB
2015: .286/.379/.394 – 21 BB/19 K – 9/10 SB – 241 AB
2016: .287/.351/.433 – 14 BB/22 K – 6/8 SB – 164 AB

53 – Louisburg rSO SS Bryce Myers: plus to plus-plus speed; 6-3, 200 pounds

2016: .310/.392/.508 – 20 BB/29 K – 26/28 SB – 187 AB

54 – Utah SR SS/2B Cody Scaggari: good defender; good athlete; 5-10, 180 pounds

2014: .288/.370/.356 – 8 BB/14 K – 4/6 SB – 104 AB
2015: .252/.316/.376 – 15 BB/18 K – 8/16 SB – 202 AB
2016: .327/.378/.482 – 13 BB/11 K – 6/10 SB – 199 AB

55 – New Mexico SR SS/2B Dalton Bowers: plus glove; 5-9, 170 pounds

2015: .218/.326/.293 – 21 BB/31 K – 5/7 SB – 147 AB
2016: .295/.442/.453 – 45 BB/48 K – 12/18 SB – 190 AB

56 – San Jacinto SO SS Brandon Montgomery: plus speed; 6-0, 180 pounds

2016: .379/.405/.591 – 8 BB/19 K – 30/35 SB – 203 AB

57 – Manhattan JR SS Jose Carrera: strong arm; steady glove; good speed; not as big as his listed height/weight; 5-6, 145 pounds

2014: .260/.321/.342 – 18 BB/24 K – 26/29 SB – 196 AB
2015: .190/.358/.317 – 14 BB/9 K – 15/16 SB – 63 AB
2016: .314/.370/.453 – 17 BB/23 K – 20/29 SB – 236 AB

58 – Seattle JR SS Griffin Andreychuk: good speed; 5-9, 185 pounds

2014: .297/.409/.324 – 11 BB/16 K – 3/3 SB – 111 AB
2015: .306/.407/.421 – 31 BB/42 K – 7/8 SB – 216 AB
2016: .293/.397/.386 – 28 BB/32 K – 11/16 SB – 215 AB

59 – Hofstra JR SS/2B Brad Witkowski: good glove; good athlete; 5-10, 190 pounds

2014: .330/.410/.364 – 11 BB/10 K – 2/3 SB – 88 AB
2015: .312/.406/.408 – 15 BB/24 K – 10/16 SB – 157 AB
2016: .289/.357/.417 – 15 BB/18 K – 8/10 SB – 187 AB

60 – Northern Illinois SR SS Brian Sisler: good athlete; 6-2, 190 pounds

2014: .304/.406/.369 – 29 BB/19 K – 5/8 SB – 168 AB
2015: .309/.406/.431 – 30 BB/23 K – 6/8 SB – 188 AB
2016: .288/.397/.419 – 33 BB/19 K – 4/6 SB – 215 AB

61 – UC Irvine SR SS Mikey Duarte: steady glove; 5-11, 180 pounds

2015: .345/.416/.429 – 18 BB/20 K – 1/4 SB – 226 AB

62 – Louisiana JR SS/2B Brad Antchak: power upside; good glove; 6-0, 185 pounds

2016: .233/.331/.328 – 14 BB/19 K – 4/6 SB – 116 AB

63 – Buffalo SR SS Bobby Sheppard: good speed; good glove; power upside; 6-0, 180 pounds

2015: .270/.341/.287 – 16 BB/23 K – 11/12 SB – 178 AB
2016: .323/.390/.377 – 21 BB/22 K – 6/9 SB – 220 AB

64 – New Mexico State SR SS Brandon Greiger: good hit tool; FAVORITE; 6-0, 165 pounds

*2015*: .478/.563/.701 – 42 BB/30 K – 17/26 SB – 201 AB)

65 – Marshall JR SS/2B Leo Valenti: improving bat; 5-11, 200 pounds

2016: .271/.421/.413 – 30 BB/20 K – 6/11 SB – 155 AB

66 – Texas Southern rSO SS Richard Alamo: very good speed; leadoff approach; 5-7, 165 pounds

2016: .337/.448/.400 – 19 BB/18 K – 21/24 SB – 95 AB

67 – Crowder CC FR SS Jacob Adams: plus glove; 5-10, 160 pounds

2016: .315/.395/.476 – 29 BB/35 K – 12/13 SB – 248 AB

68 – Fairleigh Dickinson JR SS Matt McCann: high contact hitter; 5-9, 170 pounds

2015: .300/.383/.338 – 18 BB/18 K – 14/23 SB – 160 AB
2016: .323/.410/.416 – 17 BB/14 K – 27/39 SB – 161 AB

69 – Central Arkansas SR SS Logan Preston: solid approach; 6-1, 215 pounds

2015: .222/.343/.460 – 24 BB/31 K – 1/4 SB – 176 AB
2016: .300/.420/.411 – 40 BB/40 K – 3/5 SB – 190 AB

70 – Liberty SR SS Dalton Britt: steady glove; strong hit tool; 6-0, 210 pounds

2014: .299/.348/.348 – 16 BB/30 K – 6/9 SB – 221 AB
2015: .294/.355/.436 – 21 BB/43 K – 10/11 SB – 218 AB
2016: .292/.359/.429 – 23 BB/44 K – 5/12 SB – 233 AB

71 – Southern JR SS/RHP Troy Lewis: strong arm; interesting power; 5-10, 185 pounds

*2015*: .372/.442/.558 – 18 BB/17 K – 6/7 SB – 156 AB
2016: .331/.427/.488 – 16 BB/32 K – 5/8 SB – 160 AB

72 – St. Peter’s SR SS Jon Kristoffersen: steady glove; 6-1, 185 pounds

2014: .305/.349/.395 – 12 BB/52 K – 6/7 SB – 220 AB
2015: .266/.333/.391 – 18 BB/49 K – 8/9 SB – 192 AB
2016: .286/.344/.483 – 15 BB/24 K – 12/16 SB – 203 AB

73 – Holy Cross SR SS Nick Lovullo: good athlete; steady glove; future Red Sox 40th round pick; 5-11, 180 pounds

2013: .203/.312/.286 – 12 BB/25 K – 1/3 SB – 133 AB
2014: .266/.374/.308 – 21 BB/24 K – 9/12 SB – 169 AB
2015: .278/.410/.392 – 31 BB/29 K – 7/11 SB – 176 AB
2016: .225/.363/.343 – 40 BB/22 K – 6/15 SB – 213 AB

74 – Penn SR SS Ryan Mincher: good arm; good athlete; 6-1, 185 pounds

2014: .271/.376/.436 – 21 BB/25 K – 2/5 SB – 133 AB
2015: .328/.414/.484 – 15 BB/8 K – 1/1 SB – 122 AB
2016: .257/.366/.450 – 21 BB/28 K – 2/2 SB – 140 AB

75 – Oregon JR SS/2B Mark Karaviotis: good defender; strong arm; average speed; coming off a lost season, but still an interesting all-around prospect; older Mark Ellis comp; 6-0, 175 pounds

2014: .254/.369/.303 – 19 BB/49 K – 7/9 SB – 142 AB
2015: .270/.407/.374 – 28 BB/43 K – 5/9 SB – 174 AB
2016: .077/.143/.077 – 0 BB/2 K – 0/0 SB – 13 AB

2016 MLB Draft – Final Board (College Third Basemen)

1 – Tennessee JR 3B/2B Nick Senzel: really good athlete; plus bat speed; great approach; strong hit tool; average or better speed, plus for some; very intriguing power upside, above-average to plus raw…though the emphasis remains on raw as his swing and current body make it tough to translate in games; above-average to plus arm, some like it less; good glove at either spot, loved his 2B range in my looks, so wouldn’t shut the door on playing him there if I had a say; keep going back to Anthony Rendon Lite as a comparison, though Kyle Seager, Logan Forsythe, and/or young Michael Cuddyer all fit in various ways as well; similar to Zack Collins in that he’s got the high floor/high ceiling mix that makes him a safe yet exciting top ten caliber player; RHH; FAVORITE; 6-1, 200 pounds

2014: .315/.419/.420 – 30 BB/25 K – 14/17 SB – 181 AB
2015: .325/.399/.495 – 23 BB/36 K – 7/10 SB – 200 AB
2016: .352/.456/.595 – 40 BB/21 K – 25/29 SB – 210 AB

2 – Menlo JR 3B/RHP Lucas Erceg: good athlete; plus power upside that he’s still figuring out how best to use consistently; obvious plus arm strength; really good glove; hit tool progression was a pleasant surprise throughout the spring; Cal transfer; very thoughtful Sam Monroy comp: Matt Carpenter; have heard those who love him say lefty Josh Donaldson/Nolan Arenado (as draft prospects); LHH; 92-98 FB as backup plan ain’t bad; 6-1, 190 pounds

2015: .303/.357/.502 – 16 BB/28 K – 5/8 SB – 231 AB
*2016*: .308/.351/.639 – 15 BB/18 K – 3 SB – 227 AB

2014: 5.79 K/9 – 4.50 BB/9 – 14.0 IP – 1.93 ERA
2015: 5.94 K/9 – 1.70 BB/9 – 10.2 IP – 2.53 ERA
*2016*: 12.52 K/9 – 3.13 BB/9 – 23.0 IP – 0.78 ERA

3 – Oklahoma JR 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse: plus arm; steady glove, chance to be above-average or better at third once he makes the full-time switch; average speed; plus bat speed; above-average raw power; strong; good approach; 90-95 FB, 97 peak; average to above-average 80-82 SL with plus upside; above-average 82 CU; RHH; 6-0, 200 pounds

2014: .304/.369/.521 – 27 BB/31 K – 7/9 SB – 240 AB
2015: .275/.342/.424 – 24 BB/46 K – 10/16 SB – 229 AB
2016: .369/.465/.646 – 39 BB/43 K – 12/14 SB – 198 AB

2014: 8.25 K/9 – 3.00 BB/9 – 12 IP – 2.25 ERA
2016: 8.83 K/9 – 2.33 BB/9 – 19.1 IP – 1.40 ERA

4 – Louisville rSO 3B/SS Blake Tiberi: plus hit tool; great athlete; average power upside; above-average arm; good speed; strong defender; compares fairly well to Lucas Erceg minus the otherworldly arm strength; FAVORITE; 5-11, 200 pounds

2015: .261/.330/.424 – 9 BB/12 K – 1/1 SB – 92 AB
2016: .331/.380/.534 – 18 BB/20 K – 2/2 SB – 236 AB

5 – Bradley JR 3B Spencer Gaa: plus speed; average or better power upside; strong arm; quick bat; really underrated talent; 6-2, 185 pounds

2014: .294/.382/.390 – 26 BB/33 K – 15/22 SB – 187 AB
2015: .351/.387/.500 – 9 BB/18 K – 4/5 SB – 154 AB
2016: .333/.403/.522 – 16 BB/13 K – 9/10 SB – 186 AB

6 – Pittsburgh SO 3B/SS Charles LeBlanc: quick bat; above-average or better arm; good athlete; strong build, long, lean, and powerful; serious power upside; young for class AND from a non-traditional baseball background = potential steal; 6-4, 200 pounds

2015: .291/.370/.429 – 21 BB/46 K – 6/11 SB – 196 AB
2016: .405/.494/.513 – 30 BB/29 K – 7/8 SB – 195 AB

7 – Towson JR 3B/C Brady Policelli: average to above-average speed; power upside; good athlete; plus arm; played a pretty decent shortstop in 2016; FAVORITE; 5-11, 190 pounds

2014: .267/.360/.458 – 14 BB/25 K – 2/5 SB – 120 AB
2015: .250/.364/.445 – 30 BB/44 K – 8/10 SB – 200 AB
2016: .375/.502/.620 – 45 BB/42 K – 22/25 SB – 200 AB

8 – Austin Peay JR 3B/SS Logan Gray: plus to plus-plus speed yet others have it above-average, either way he can run a little; easy average to above-average power upside; good approach, getting better; great defensive tools at the hot corner; great athlete; can also play 2B; FAVORITE; 6-3, 185 pounds

2014: .249/.318/.451 – 17 BB/59 K – 5/11 SB – 173 AB
2015: .366/.461/.752 – 24 BB/44 K – 11/11 SB – 153 AB
2016: .356/.446/.711 – 23 BB/43 K – 7/9 SB – 149 AB

9 – Arizona JR 3B/RHP Bobby Dalbec: above-average to plus power; above-average to plus arm; below-average speed; long swing; athletic enough to stick at third, where he has improved a lot; 88-94 FB, 95 peak; above-average 75-84 SL, flashes plus (79-85 in 2016); cutter; average 80-82 CU; Troy Glaus comp when at his best, Chris Dominguez when he’s not; I lean towards the latter being the more likely outcome, but you still can’t quit on a guy with his kind of power; RHH; 6-4, 220 pounds

2014: .266/.333/.355 – 18 BB/48 K – 1/3 SB – 169 AB
2015: .319/.410/.601 – 32 BB/60 K – 0/2 SB – 213 AB
2016: .253/.368/.418 – 31 BB/71 K – 7/9 SB – 194 AB

2014: 5.68 K/9 – 2.37 BB/9 – 38 IP – 2.13 ERA
2015: 7.01 K/9 – 3.36 BB/9 – 61.2 IP – 3.21 ERA
2016: 7.70 K/9 – 3.66 BB/9 – 71.1 IP – 3.28 ERA

10 – Eastern Kentucky SR 3B/1B Mandy Alvarez: good approach; quick bat; average power upside; average speed; average glove; average arm; could be tried at 2B again; Florida International transfer; lots of 5’s on his card make him one of the better senior-signs out there; 6-1, 215 pounds

2015: .319/.371/.565 – 17 BB/29 K – 1/4 SB – 207 AB
2016: .409/.455/.646 – 22 BB/24 K – 1/2 SB – 237 AB

11 – LSU SO 3B/2B Greg Deichmann: real power upside; above-average to plus speed, plays down; strong; way too aggressive, but slowly improving there; great athlete; many split opinions about his long-term defensive home, but I continue to believe in him at third; 6-2, 190 pounds

2016: .268/.324/.482 – 16 BB/40 K – 5/11 SB – 220 AB

12 – TCU JR 3B/SS Elliott Barzilli: really good defender; average or better hit tool; average speed; sneaky pop; can also play 2B and 1B; great athlete; Georgia Tech transfer; 6-1, 175 pounds

2015: .250/.315/.340 – 9 BB/13 K – 4/4 SB – 100 AB
2016: .367/.440/.566 – 27 BB/27 K – 12/13 SB – 221 AB

13 – Mississippi State JR 3B/C Gavin Collins: strong hit tool; above-average to plus arm, likes to use it; average or better power upside; below-average speed; really good at 3B; Spencer Navin and Curt Casali comps; 5-11, 200 pounds

2014: .304/.355/.384 – 10 BB/18 K – 0/2 SB – 138 AB
2015: .228/.313/.299 – 15 BB/20 K – 1/2 SB – 127 AB
2016: .301/.404/.512 – 29 BB/33 K – 0/0 SB – 209 AB

14 – Elon JR 3B/OF Nick Zammarelli: quick bat; good athlete; power upside; 6-2, 200 pounds

2014: .284/.367/.387 – 20 BB/35 K – 2/3 SB – 155 AB
2015: .288/.356/.443 – 23 BB/35 K – 4/7 SB – 212 AB
2016: .342/.425/.590 – 31 BB/41 K – 10/12 SB – 222 AB

15 – Arkansas rSO 3B/C Carson Shaddy: good athlete; quick bat; really good defender at both spots, especially third where his actions have flashed plus; good approach; can also play CF and 2B; wouldn’t be a shock to see him move back behind the plate as a pro; Tommy John survivor who is still rebuilding arm strength; 5-11, 185 pounds

2015: .337/.427/.517 – 9 BB/26 K – 1/2 SB – 89 AB
2016: .332/.400/.521 – 23 BB/52 K – 5/9 SB – 211 AB

16 – Nebraska-Omaha SR 3B/SS Clayton Taylor: plus bat speed; can also play 2B; FAVORITE; 6-4, 220 pounds

2013: .328/.440/.418 – 22 BB/18 K – 8/13 SB – 122 AB
2015: .308/.403/.490 – 25 BB/32 K – 3/4 SB – 198 AB
2016: .333/.435/.560 – 33 BB/41 K – 10/10 SB – 207 AB

17 – College of Southern Nevada rFR 3B/C Blake Wiggins: plus raw power; Arkansas transfer; 6-1, 200 pounds

2016: .315/.448/.612 – 43 BB/46 K – 6/6 SB – 178 AB

18 – Nova Southeastern JR 3B/2B Danny Zardon: quick bat; average speed; average or better power; good defender; above-average arm; 6-1, 200 pounds

2014: .268/.339/.357 – 6 BB/9 K – 0/0 SB – 56 AB
*2016*: .318/.420/.613 – 39 BB/45 K – 8/10 SB – 217 AB

19 – Monmouth rSO 3B/1B Shaine Hughes: good hit tool; power upside; good glove; 6-0, 210 pounds

2015: .289/.395/.403 – 22 BB/31 K – 2/3 SB – 159 AB
2016: .385/.457/.522 – 17 BB/6 K – 7/9 SB – 161 AB

20 – Franklin Pierce JR 3B Jay Jabs: plus arm; power upside; good speed; LHH: 6-0, 200 pounds

2016: .352/.466/.638 – 42 BB/32 K – 16/21 SB – 213 AB

21 – East Tennessee State JR 3B Blake Rowlett: power upside; good approach; good glove; 5-10, 180 pounds

2016: .311/.429/.500 – 40 BB/30 K – 5/5 SB – 190 AB

22 – Western Kentucky SR 3B Danny Hudzina: good glove; good athlete; power upside; has also played 2B and C; 5-11

2015: .327/.369/.515 – 14 BB/16 K – 3/5 SB – 202 AB
2016: .408/.470/.564 – 26 BB/12 K – 0/1 SB – 218 AB

23 – Clemson JR 3B/SS Weston Wilson: good defensive tools; above-average power upside; quick bat; good athlete; can also play 2B; very talented player just scratching the surface of his ability; older PG comp: Richie Shaffer; RHH; 6-3, 200 pounds

2014: .240/.316/.312 – 15 BB/30 K – 3/5 SB – 154 AB
2015: .251/.326/.385 – 21 BB/46 K – 7/10 SB – 195 AB
2016: .279/.343/.434 – 26 BB/42 K – 8/13 SB – 251 AB

24 – Saint Louis SR 3B/C Braxton Martinez: quick bat; power upside; average speed; above-average defensive tools; above-average arm; FAVORITE; 6-3, 220 pounds

2013: .322/.392/.459 – 27 BB/32 K – 1/2 SB – 242 AB
2014: .291/.374/.424 – 24 BB/28 K – 2/2 SB – 203 AB
2015: .314/.391/.469 – 26 BB/29 K – 1/3 SB – 207 AB
2016: .281/.376/.433 – 30 BB/22 K – 0/3 SB – 217 AB

25 – Seattle JR 3B Brock Carpenter: power upside; plus arm; 6-3, 200 pounds

2015: .247/.366/.367 – 27 BB/32 K – 4/5 SB – 158 AB
2016: .327/.444/.532 – 41 BB/53 K – 6/9 SB – 205 AB

26 – LSU-Eunice CC 3B Nick Coomes: plus defender; 6-0, 190 pounds

2016: .359/.458/.684 – 33 BB/48 K – 15/16 SB – 209 AB

27 – Texas A&M JR 3B/C Ronnie Gideon: plus raw power; plus arm strength; steady glove; quick bat; defense and swing-and-miss remain open questions; 6-3, 240 pounds

2015: .294/.359/.522 – 13 BB/42 K – 0/0 SB – 136 AB
2016: .284/.419/.597 – 17 BB/30 K – 1/1 SB – 67 AB

28 – Ohio State rSR 3B Nick Sergakis: great glove; undersized, but athletic enough to make it as a utility guy; 5-8, 180 pounds

2014: .318/.366/.404 – 8 BB/25 K – 3/7 SB – 151 AB
2015: .250/.352/.330 – 18 BB/44 K – 6/6 SB – 176 AB
2016: .332/.451/.542 – 36 BB/34 K – 15/17 SB – 238 AB

29 – Rutgers SR 3B/C RJ Devish: great approach; strong arm; good athlete; might be able to hold up behind plate; 5-11, 170 pounds

2014: .274/.408/.310 – 7 BB/16 K – 0/1 SB – 84 AB
2015: .245/.368/.252 – 16 BB/18 K – 13/14 SB – 143 AB
2016: .375/.524/.435 – 41 BB/19 K – 24/27 SB – 168 AB

30 – Florida Tech JR 3B John Sternagel: power upside; good approach; steady glove; accurate arm; Florida transfer; 6-1, 200 pounds

2014: .238/.342/.267 – 14 BB/16 K – 1/3 SB – 101 AB
2015: .178/.327/.311 – 7 BB/8 K – 1/1 SB – 45 AB
*2016*: .381/.477/.579 – 30 BB/33 K – 36/41 SB – 197 AB

31 – Cal SR 3B/C Mitchell Kranson: has experience calling own games behind the plate; good mobility/good range; lots of hard contact; West Coast version of Gavin Collins; 5-9, 210 pounds

2013: .288/.333/.365 – 7 BB/13 K – 1/1 SB – 104 AB
2014: .231/.283/.317 – 7 BB/13 K – 0/1 SB – 104 AB
2015: .273/.303/.467 – 5 BB/10 K – 0/0 SB – 165 AB
2016: .333/.376/.474 – 15 BB/26 K – 1/3 SB – 213 AB

32 – Utah rJR 3B Dallas Carroll: good athlete; good approach; 6-0, 200 pounds

2013: .282/.361/.350 – 11 BB/14 K – 7/9 SB – 103 AB
2015: .283/.407/.332 – 28 BB/22 K – 16/26 SB – 187 AB
2016: .300/.416/.465 – 27 BB/22 K – 9/16 SB – 200 AB

33 – Georgia Tech SR 3B/SS Matt Gonzalez: quick bat; average arm; above-average speed; average power; good hands; strong; talent remains ahead of production; 5-11, 200 pounds

2013: .295/.331/.392 – 12 BB/45 K – 11/15 SB – 227 AB
2014: .314/.358/.416 – 20 BB/55 K – 9/17 SB – 255 AB
2015: .285/.317/.412 – 13 BB/52 K – 10/14 SB – 221 AB
2016: .378/.419/.577 – 18 BB/39 K – 10/16 SB – 246 AB

34 – Neosho County CC FR 3B Brylie Ware: decent production; 6-0, 200 pounds

2016: .560/.660/1.128 – 37 BB/14 K – 6/7 SB – 218 AB

35 – Dallas Baptist JR 3B/OF Austin Listi: powerful athlete with untapped offensive potential; had previously expressed desire to give up baseball for military service, but back on the field within a year; 6-0, 200 pounds

2013: .243/.345/.439 – 23 BB/51 K – 5/8 SB – 214 AB
2014: .285/.380/.477 – 24 BB/44 K – 4/5 SB – 235 AB
2016: .275/.403/.521 – 25 BB/40 K – 3/4 SB – 167 AB

36 – Tabor SR 3B Alex Couch: good hit tool; steady glove; 6-3, 210 pounds

2016: .370/.438/.514 – 15 BB/9 K – 4/5 SB – 138 AB

37 – College of Southern Nevada SO 3B/SS Brody Westmoreland: strong arm; power upside; good athlete; very much looks the part; San Diego State transfer; 6-3, 200 pounds

2015: .156/.235/.311 – 5 BB/16 K – 0/1 SB – 45 AB
*2016*: .366/.466/.726 – 26 BB/47 K – 6/7 SB – 175 AB

38 – Miami (Ohio) SR 3B/OF Chad Sedio: good approach; average at best glove; good athlete; can also play 2B and SS at a passable level; 6-3, 200 pounds

2013: .324/.404/.412 – 12 BB/31 K – 6/9 SB – 148 AB
2014: .289/.380/.410 – 13 BB/35 K – 5/8 SB – 166 AB
2015: .330/.408/.560 – 10 BB/19 K – 1/3 SB – 91 AB
2016: .269/.379/.528 – 20 BB/48 K – 14/16 SB – 197 A

39 – Mississippi JR 3B/1B Colby Bortles: good athlete; power upside; better glove for a man his size than you’d think; 6-5, 250 pounds

2014: .250/.386/.397 – 11 BB/21 K – 0/1 SB – 68 AB
2015: .281/.365/.442 – 26 BB/63 K – 0/2 SB – 199 AB
2016: .269/.379/.475 – 31 BB/59 K – 0/0 SB – 219 AB

40 – Northwest Nazarene SR 3B/2B Tyler Davis: plus approach; could also play OF; RHH; 6-0, 190 pounds

2016: .328/.401/.621 – 21 BB/27 K – 6/8 SB – 195 AB

41 – Vanderbilt SO 3B/SS Will Toffey: good athlete; average or better power; above-average to plus arm; average to above-average speed; good approach; good glove; strong; can also play 2B; talented guy, but weird power loss and two remaining years of eligibility figure to make him a tougher sign than it’ll be worth; 6-2, 200 pounds

2015: .294/.380/.420 – 34 BB/65 K – 8/12 SB – 255 AB
2016: .227/.387/.266 – 51 BB/44 K – 9/13 SB – 203 AB

42 – Virginia Military Institute SR 3B David Geary: steadying infield presence; 6-2, 215 pounds

2015: .285/.371/.376 – 20 BB/35 K – 5/7 SB – 186 AB
2016: .320/.424/.562 – 31 BB/39 K – 9/12 SB – 203 AB

43 – Morehead State rJR 3B Alex Stephens: quick bat; 6-1, 190 pounds

2015: .331/.360/.543 – 6 BB/9 K – 2/2 SB – 127 AB
2016: .357/.389/.535 – 11 BB/17 K – 12/16 SB – 230 AB

44 – Grambling State JR 3B Daniel Barnett: highly productive bat; 5-11

2016: .408/.504/.647 – 34 BB/17 K – 0/0 SB – 184 AB

45 – Louisiana JR 3B/2B Brenn Conrad: power upside; steady glove; 5-10, 200 pounds

2015: .241/.284/.317 – 7 BB/14 K – 5/8 SB – 145 AB
2016: .289/.394/.428 – 23 BB/15 K – 5/8 SB – 201 AB

46 – Tennessee SR 3B/2B Jeff Moberg: strong glove; undersized, but athletic enough to make it as a utility guy; 5-9, 170 pounds

2013: .242/.359/.263 – 10 BB/19 K – 4/4 SB – 99 AB
2015: .167/.242/.300 – 1 BB/5 K – 0/0 SB – 30 AB
2016: .415/.519/.554 – 10 BB/11 K – 4/6 SB – 65 AB

47 – Louisiana Tech JR 3B Raphael Gladu: highly productive bat; 6-2, 190 pounds

2016: .365/.459/.506 – 23 BB/15 K – 5/6 SB – 156 AB

48 – Quinnipiac SR 3B/RHP Joseph Burns: good approach; low-90s FB; interesting late-round mix of tools and production; St. John’s transfer; 5-11, 215 pounds

2016: .294/.377/.481 – 26 BB/31 K – 5/9 SB – 187 AB

49 – Yale JR 3B Richard Slenker: impressive track record of hitting; 5-11, 200 pounds

2014: .352/.414/.410 – 9 BB/12 K – 3/4 SB – 105 AB
2015: .290/.367/.407 – 13 BB/24 K – 10/11 SB – 145 AB
2016: .342/.443/.513 – 23 BB/20 K – 7/10 SB – 158 AB

50 – Oral Roberts JR 3B/OF Rolando Martinez: power upside; 6-0, 185 pounds

2015: .322/.403/.405 – 16 BB/21 K – 1/2 SB – 121 AB
2016: .294/.388/.382 – 24 BB/23 K – 1/2 SB – 170 AB

51 – New York Tech JR 3B/1B Louis Mele: intriguing raw power; 6-1, 200 pounds

2015: .364/.406/.636 – 6 BB/21 K – 0/0 SB – 140 AB
2016: .313/.357/.537 – 9 BB/17 K – 0/0 SB – 134 AB

52 – Wagner SR 3B/OF Ben Ruta: above-average arm; good speed; power upside; 6-3, 210 pounds

2013: .322/.409/.373 – 13 BB/15 K – 2/2 SB – 118 AB
2014: .250/.322/.358 – 15 BB/15 K – 18/21 SB – 204 AB
2015: .327/.412/.469 – 29 BB/33 K – 10/15 SB – 196 AB
2016: .343/.406/.439 – 20 BB/20 K – 9/15 SB – 198 AB

53 – Texas-San Antonio SR 3B/OF Geonte Jackson: good approach; average power; good defensive tools; good athlete; good speed; has flashed some real ability when on the field; LSU transfer; 6-1, 200 pounds

2015: .298/.361/.363 – 20 BB/39 K – 6/11 SB – 215 AB
2016: .310/.388/.548 – 6 BB/8 K – 2/3 SB – 42 AB

54 – Georgia Highlands FR 3B Brandon Bell: good hit tool; quick bat; good speed; 6-2, 210 pounds

2016: .298/.397/.540 – 25 BB/33 K – 5/5 SB – 198 AB

55 – Pittsburgh JR 3B Ron Sherman: intriguing physical/athletic profile; 6-4, 200 pounds

2015: .232/.293/.397 – 10 BB/47 K – 2/4 SB – 151 AB
2016: .282/.379/.534 – 19 BB/40 K – 1/3 SB – 131 AB

56 – BYU SO 3B Nate Favero: early season coach comp to Ben Zobrist makes him intriguing despite inconsistent season; 6-4, 185 pounds

2016: .317/.345/.490 – 4 BB/17 K – 2/2 SB – 104 AB

57 – Saint Louis SR 3B/SS Josh Bunselmeyer: productive college bat; 6-0, 180 pounds

2015: .275/.353/.430 – 23 BB/48 K – 2/2 SB – 193 AB
2016: .325/.429/.579 – 37 BB/41 K – 2/4 SB – 209 AB

58 – Fairleigh Dickinson SR 3B Joel Roman: undersized, but productive; 5-8, 185 pounds

2014: .293/.316/.393 – 4 BB/20 K – 0/0 SB – 150 AB
2015: .246/.351/.438 – 17 BB/29 K – 1/2 SB – 130 AB
2016: .259/.429/.491 – 38 BB/29 K – 1/2 SB – 116 AB

59- Coastal Carolina SR 3B Zach Remillard: average or better raw power; solid defensive tools; good approach; strong arm; may not be athletic enough for 3B, but has improved a good bit over the past eighteen months; inconsistent hands; good speed; could be tried at 2B, but I wouldn’t; old BA comp: Gordon Beckham; talented player, but too aggressive at the plate for his own good; 6-2, 190 pounds

2013: .226/.270/.318 – 12 BB/42 K – 3/3 SB – 195 AB
2014: .259/.318/.368 – 16 BB/39 K – 3/4 SB – 193 AB
2015: .270/.339/.419 – 18 BB/38 K – 7/11 SB – 215 AB
2016: .348/.402/.644 – 18 BB/68 K – 12/14 SB – 233 AB

60 – Central Arizona FR 3B/1B Mitchell Robinson: strong; power upside; strong arm; below-average speed; can also play OF; Florida International transfer; 6-2, 200 pounds

2016: .374/.434/.583 – 21 BB/32 K – 4/6 SB – 206 AB

61 – Coastal Carolina SR 3B/C Tyler Chadwick: good approach; good athlete; average speed; can play anywhere, so could be useful minor league depth piece; 5-9, 200 pounds

2013: .333/.451/.359 – 8 BB/10 K – 0/1 SB – 39 AB
2014: .299/.389/.369 – 25 BB/28 K – 4/5 SB – 187 AB
2015: .302/.419/.459 – 30 BB/41 K – 3/5 SB – 172 AB
2016: .272/.383/.485 – 25 BB/36 K – 1/1 SB – 169 AB

62 – Indiana State SR 3B/OF Andy Young: average glove; power upside; has toned down his aggressive ways at plate and become much improved hitter; 5-11, 190 pounds

2015: .296/.378/.498 – 14 BB/33 K – 4/5 SB – 203 AB
2016: .299/.414/.480 – 30 BB/27 K – 6/12 SB – 221 AB

63 – Northwest Florida State CC SO 3B/SS Taylor Lane: quick bat; good glove; strong arm; good athlete; good speed; power upside; RHH; Florida transfer; 6-2, 200 pounds

2016: .325/.386/.438 – 16 BB/26 K – 7/8 SB – 203 AB

64 – North Carolina Greensboro SR 3B/RHP Collin Woody: strong arm; 84-88 FB with sink; average CU; 6-1, 200 pounds

2015: .296/.362/.508 – 20 BB/28 K – 1/2 SB – 199 AB
2016: .349/.418/.571 – 26 BB/43 K – 3/3 SB – 238 AB

65 – Western Michigan JR 3B Grant Miller: strong hit tool; 5-11, 170 pounds

2014: .269/.381/.308 – 21 BB/23 K – 3/4 SB – 182 AB
2015: .256/.406/.311 – 25 BB/20 K – 2/4 SB – 180 AB
2016: .330/.418/.397 – 26 BB/22 K – 4/8 SB – 209 AB

66 – Kansas State rJR 3B/C Steve Serratore: good glove; 5-11, 200 pounds

2015: .265/.367/.364 – 18 BB/28 K – 5/8 SB – 151 AB
2016: .310/.412/.500 – 13 BB/20 K – 4/4 SB – 100 AB

67 – Loyola Marymount JR 3B/C Jimmy Hill: production not yet there, but average or better hit tool; 5-11, 200 pounds

2016: .222/.308/.395 – 8 BB/18 K – 2/3 SB – 81 AB

68 – St. Mary’s SR 3B Anthony Villa: good approach; 6-2, 200 pounds

2013: .291/.356/.362 – 19 BB/30 K – 2/5 SB – 196 AB
2014: .276/.335/.345 – 20 BB/36 K – 4/8 SB – 203 AB
2015: .343/.415/.488 – 20 BB/37 K – 1/5 SB – 201 AB
2016: .297/.402/.481 – 30 BB/51 K – 2/7 SB – 212 AB

69 – Wichita State SR 3B Chase Rader: interesting bat; above-average to plus raw power; strong arm; steady glove; really good athlete; strong; above-average to plus speed; louder tools than results, but a lot for a pro team to work with; 6-0, 215 pounds

2015: .239/.363/.381 – 19 BB/59 K – 13/18 SB – 176 AB
2016: .258/.345/.379 – 10 BB/24 K – 3/5 SB – 124 AB

70 – Virginia Tech JR 3B/SS Ryan Tufts: steady glove; average speed; 6-2, 200 pounds

2014: .232/.344/.256 – 12 BB/23 K – 2/3 SB – 82 AB
2015: .245/.324/.298 – 6 BB/23 K – 1/1 SB – 94 AB
2016: .284/.386/.416 – 27 BB/37 K – 0/1 SB – 197 AB

71 – Boston College SR 3B/SS Joe Cronin: above-average glove; can also play 1B, 2B, and OF; 5-10, 180 pounds

2014: .291/.372/.404 – 26 BB/40 K – 2/6 SB – 203 AB
2015: .223/.335/.361 – 24 BB/46 K – 0/1 SB – 166 AB
2016: .271/.381/.432 – 34 BB/45 K – 11/14 SB – 199 AB

72 – Mercer JR 3B Danny Edgeworth: good defender; 6-3, 190 pounds

2015: .292/.398/.443 – 22 BB/44 K – 5/6 SB – 212 AB
2016: .265/.385/.448 – 33 BB/42 K – 2/3 SB – 230 AB

73 – Texas-San Antonio SR 3B/SS Tyler Straub: good hit tool; average or better speed; power upside; average glove; average arm; has also played 1B; definite sleeper potential this low; 6-4, 200 pounds

2015: .340/.391/.463 – 12 BB/26 K – 12/15 SB – 162 AB
2016: .282/.342/.366 – 16 BB/19 K – 9/13 SB – 202 AB

74 – Central Florida JR 3B/SS Kam Gellinger: really good defensive tools; strong arm; good speed; interesting bat; 6-1, 200 pounds

2015: .198/.234/.287 – 4 BB/23 K – 3/3 SB – 101 AB
2016: .282/.365/.400 – 20 BB/36 K – 5/7 SB – 195 AB

75 – Tennessee JR 3B Jordan Rodgers: good speed; sneaky pop; 6-1, 185 pounds

2014: .130/.333/.130 – 5 BB/5 K – 3/3 SB – 23 AB
2015: .278/.351/.340 – 8 BB/21 K – 0/1 SB – 97 AB)
2016: .282/.337/.454 – 15 BB/41 K – 13/14 SB – 216 AB

2016 MLB Draft – Final Board (College Second Basemen)

1 – Louisville JR 2B/OF Nick Solak: great approach; very strong hit tool, borders on plus for me; above-average to plus speed underway; sneaky pop, able to drive mistakes; steady glove; does all the big things well enough to play everyday and all the little things well enough to be a potential star; FAVORITE; 5-11, 175 pounds

2014: .351/.455/.464 – 17 BB/14 K – 9/13 SB – 97 AB
2015: .324/.416/.439 – 26 BB/31 K – 18/25 SB – 244 AB
2016: .380/.474/.576 – 27 BB/19 K – 9/12 SB – 158 AB

2 – Notre Dame JR 2B/3B Cavan Biggio: plus hit tool; great approach; quick bat; average to above-average speed; average to above-average raw power; mystified about the lack of buzz about him as a hitter; LHH; 6-2, 180 pounds

2014: .246/.329/.353 – 21 BB/32 K – 5/7 SB – 187 AB
2015: .258/.406/.462 – 50 BB/54 K – 14/16 SB – 221 AB
2016: .311/.473/.454 – 54 BB/32 K – 14/14 SB – 196 AB

3 – Coastal Carolina JR 2B/SS Michael Paez: average or better hit tool; good approach; sneaky pop, could be average or a tick below raw; average or better speed; good defensive tools; strong enough arm to play some short, but not quite enough to do it everyday; impressive range at either spot; if he can streamline his swing again and get back to what he was doing on the Cape, then he’s a future regular; FAVORITE; 5-9, 175 pounds

2014: .245/.351/.314 – 23 BB/26 K – 17/21 SB – 204 AB
2015: .326/.436/.526 – 29 BB/23 K – 19/23 SB – 215 AB
2016: .292/.380/.555 – 24 BB/38 K – 6/9 SB – 236 AB

4 – San Diego SO 2B/SS Bryson Brigman: above-average hit tool; good athlete; average to above-average arm, enough for short for me some days; best shot of any of the second basemen to log meaningful innings at shortstop in the pros; above-average to plus speed; above-average to plus glove at second, slightly below that at short; sneaky pop; good approach; reminds me of Scott Kingery in a few different ways; 5-11, 180 pounds

2015: .339/.395/.436 – 18 BB/23 K – 5/8 SB – 218 AB
2016: .372/.428/.424 – 16 BB/19 K – 17/24 SB – 191 AB

5 – Florida Gulf Coast rJR 2B/OF Jake Noll: average or better hit tool, has shown it off for years; quick bat; above-average speed; good athlete; burgeoning power; can also play 3B; RHH; 6-2, 200 pounds

2014: .367/.416/.440 – 21 BB/23 K – 25/30 SB – 275 AB
2015: .348/.406/.423 – 20 BB/26 K – 15/18 SB – 227 AB
2016: .367/.427/.620 – 20 BB/29 K – 9/14 SB – 237 AB

6 – Kentucky JR 2B/OF JaVon Shelby: above-average to plus speed; power upside; above-average to plus bat speed; great athlete; continuously improving with the leather at second; can also play 3B, where he has generally impressed; strong arm; older PG comp: Josh Harrison; approach took a step backwards, but at or near the top of this class in terms of physical ability; RHH; 6-2, 200 pounds

2014: .250/.351/.372 – 23 BB/42 K – 0/2 SB – 180 AB
2015: .312/.442/.525 – 38 BB/51 K – 4/4 SB – 202 AB
2016: .212/.335/.470 – 29 BB/67 K – 6/6 SB – 198 AB

7 – Texas A&M JR 2B/OF Ryne Birk: good athlete; above-average speed; average raw power is more than you’d think at first glance; defense started rocky, but has improved steadily since 2014; average at best arm likely limits him to either second or left; 5-10, 185 pounds

2014: .306/.391/.441 – 14 BB/18 K – 4/5 SB – 111 AB
2015: .275/.365/.466 – 30 BB/38 K – 3/5 SB – 236 AB
2016: .318/.384/.494 – 27 BB/33 K – 8/12 SB – 245 AB

8 – LSU JR 2B/SS Kramer Robertson: average to above-average speed; average or better power; plus athlete; intriguing bat that has really come on this past season; plus athleticism gives him more upside than most college second basemen with only one year’s worth of quality hitting on his ledger; 5-10, 160 pounds

2014: .200/.339/.290 – 17 BB/21 K – 3/4 SB – 100 AB
2015: .232/.338/.286 – 9 BB/9 K – 1/1 SB – 56 AB
2016: .318/.413/.426 – 26 BB/20 K – 14/18 SB – 242 AB

9 – Columbia JR 2B Will Savage: average or better hit tool; above-average speed; defense flashes, but remains inconsistent; 6-0, 185 pounds

2014: .320/.386/.405 – 12 BB/17 K – 14/16 SB – 153 AB
2015: .302/.406/.395 – 26 BB/28 K – 10/15 SB – 172 AB
2016: .367/.463/.487 – 26 BB/15 K – 20/25 SB – 158 AB

10 – Coastal Carolina SR 2B/OF Connor Owings: average hit tool; plus speed; gets the most out of his ability; 5-10, 190 pounds

2014: .326/.400/.446 – 21 BB/30 K – 11/15 SB – 233 AB
2015: .276/.406/.480 – 45 BB/42 K – 13/18 SB – 196 AB
2016: .283/.492/.701 – 41 BB/49 K – 14/15 SB – 201 AB

11 – Wake Forest JR 2B/OF Nate Mondou: legit hit tool; power upside; defense comes and goes; have heard a Daniel Murphy comp; 5-10, 200 pounds

2014: .279/.321/.465 – 11 BB/25 K – 3/5 SB – 172 AB
2015: .338/.391/.581 – 18 BB/30 K – 5/6 SB – 222 AB
2016: .302/.383/.416 – 22 BB/27 K – 4/5 SB – 245 AB

12 – East Tennessee State SR 2B Trey York: plus-plus speed; good glove; intriguing pop; 6-2, 200 pounds

2014: .231/.305/.349 – 15 BB/34 K – 11/13 SB – 186 AB
2015: .355/.437/.611 – 25 BB/44 K – 18/21 SB – 211 AB
2016: .348/.431/.648 – 30 BB/35 K – 17/24 SB – 233 AB

13 – Mercer JR 2B/SS Ryan Hagan: plus glove; average hit tool; some power upside; 5-11, 190 pounds

2016: .316/.419/.488 – 41 BB/40 K – 10/14 SB – 244 AB

14 – Gardner-Webb SR 2B/C Collin Thacker: strong arm; steady glove; good approach; 5-9, 200 pounds

2015: .285/.376/.358 – 19 BB/17 K – 2/3 SB – 165 AB
2016: .394/.452/.578 – 26 BB/16 K – 1/2 SB – 218 AB

15 – Lehigh SR 2B/SS Mike Garzillo: sneaky pop; above-average to plus speed; above-average arm; every source I’ve talked to says he’ll be picked much higher than anybody on the outside thinks; 5-11, 175 pounds

2013: .260/.343/.364 – 19 BB/35 K – 14/14 SB – 154 AB
2014: .308/.395/.407 – 20 BB/35 K – 10/13 SB – 182 AB
2015: .359/.422/.651 – 18 BB/43 K – 15/18 SB – 209 AB
2016: .313/.416/.562 – 27 BB/54 K – 13/17 SB – 201 AB

16 – Iowa Western CC 2B Jared Gates: hitting machine, could be a true plus hit tool; 6-0, 170 pounds

2016: .400/.455/.578 – 12 BB/15 K – 4/8 SB – 135 AB

17 – Florida Atlantic JR 2B/SS Stephen Kerr: plus to plus-plus speed; average arm; average to above-average hit tool; really intriguing defensive tools; great approach; sneaky starter upside if gains in pop prove real; 5-10, 175 pounds

2014: .324/.381/.372 – 21 BB/16 K – 10/12 SB – 207 AB
2015: .307/.389/.358 – 32 BB/31 K – 15/24 SB – 257 AB
2016: .248/.333/.368 – 26 BB/30 K – 16/16 SB – 234 AB

18 – Bryant JR 2B Cole Fabio: good approach; good speed; FAVORITE; 5-11, 185 pounds

2014: .337/.454/.394 – 19 BB/21 K – 12/16 SB – 104 AB
2015: .347/.438/.477 – 29 BB/21 K – 17/23 SB – 199 AB
2016: .282/.373/.364 – 31 BB/30 K – 13/15 SB – 209 AB

19 – Arizona SR 2B/SS Cody Ramer: has flashed more pop than thought possible, whether or not it is sustainable is the question; good athlete; really good glove at 2B, steady at SS; average speed; can also play OF and 3B; utility player future if it all clicks; LHH; 5-10, 180 pounds

2013: .150/.243/.233 – 6 BB/16 K – 4/5 SB – 60 AB
2014: .250/.392/.290 – 25 BB/22 K – 7/13 SB – 124 AB
2015: .178/.288/.178 – 6 BB/12 K – 0/2 SB – 45 AB
2016: .356/.452/.494 – 41 BB/36 K – 8/13 SB – 233 AB

20 – Kansas SR 2B/SS Colby Wright: reliable glove, reliable bat; 6-1, 200 pounds

2014: .314/.415/.417 – 23 BB/19 K – 1/2 SB – 156 AB
2015: .264/.435/.326 – 21 BB/17 K – 4/4 SB – 129 AB
2016: .341/.466/.563 – 24 BB/21 K – 6/8 SB – 176 AB)

21 – Jackson State JR 2B/SS Cornelius Copeland: solid all-around skill set; highly productive; 5-9, 170 pounds

2016: .422/.537/.631 – 26 BB/16 K – 8/13 SB – 187 AB

22 – Central Michigan JR 2B/SS Alex Borglin: plus athlete; plus speed; good range; average at best arm likely pushes him off short; FAVORITE; 6-0, 175 pounds

2014: .225/.410/.312 – 35 BB/38 K – 6/6 SB – 138 AB
2015: .308/.420/.402 – 37 BB/30 K – 5/9 SB – 224 AB
2016: .299/.394/.402 – 32 BB/32 K – 5/9 SB – 241 AB

23 – Villanova JR 2B/3B Todd Czinege: impressive hit tool; confidence in his bat serves him well, but can get him in trouble at times when he gets too aggressive; good athlete; strong arm; can also play 1B and OF; average at best speed; bat will make or break him; 6-2, 200 pounds

2014: .306/.353/.434 – 14 BB/35 K – 5/8 SB – 196 AB
2015: .327/.372/.425 – 12 BB/37 K – 4/5 SB – 214 AB
2016: .307/.395/.460 – 27 BB/49 K – 2/3 SB – 202 AB

24 – Stanford JR 2B/SS Tommy Edman: steady glove; above-average to plus speed, others like it less; strong arm, average or better; good approach; quality hit tool; lack of pop holds him back; FAVORITE; 5-10, 180 pounds

2014: .256/.341/.344 – 25 BB/25 K – 3/6 SB – 195 AB
2015: .296/.383/.377 – 27 BB/16 K – 4/8 SB – 223 AB
2016: .286/.358/.371 – 25 BB/16 K – 8/9 SB – 213 AB

25 – LSU JR 2B/3B Cole Freeman: good glove, good speed, good program; 5-9, 185 pounds

2016: .322/.425/.396 – 32 BB/21 K – 26/35 SB – 202 AB

26 – Golden West JC SO 2B Dillon Persinger: good approach; above-average speed; average arm; good athlete; can also play OF; 5-11, 180 pounds

2016: .417/.523/.661 – 28 BB/30 K – 15/18 SB – 180 AB

27 – San Jacinto FR 2B/SS Nicholas Shumpert: iffy hit tool; approach is all over the place; average at best arm; plus raw power keeps him on the radar; 6-0, 180 pounds

2016: .284/.348/.420 – 15 BB/51 K – 15/19 SB – 169 AB

28 – Portland SR 2B/OF Caleb Whalen: really good defender; plus to plus-plus speed, but doesn’t yet know how to capitalize on it consistently; solid approach; power is coming, average raw; good athlete; strong arm; have had some rave about his hit tool while others consider him a NP; can also hang at SS or 3B; 24 in October; 6-2, 190 pounds

2012: .271/.345/.446 – 17 BB/38 K – 0/1 SB – 177 AB
2013: .266/.343/.386 – 18 BB/44 K – 6/8 SB – 184 AB
2014: .265/.344/.423 – 16 BB/28 K – 3/5 SB – 196 AB
2015: .279/.380/.395 – 4 BB/10 K – 0/1 SB – 43 AB
2016: .304/.399/.551 – 16 BB/39 K – 5/8 SB – 138 AB

29 – Evansville JR 2B Trey Hair: solid all-around player; serious pop; Missouri State transfer; 5-10, 175 pounds

2016: .340/.435/.591 – 29 BB/54 K – 1/5 SB – 215 AB

30 – Notre Dame JR 2B/SS Kyle Fiala: good approach; power upside; above-average glove; average or better arm; average or better speed; can also play 3B; cratered as a hitter in his draft year and might need to head back to South Bend to rehabilitate his stock in 2017, but still an all-around prospect I believe in; RHH; 6-1, 175 pounds

2014: .268/.362/.302 – 19 BB/20 K – 5/9 SB – 179 AB
2015: .301/.394/.452 – 31 BB/33 K – 10/12 SB – 239 AB
2016: .215/.278/.257 – 11 BB/30 K – 3/4 SB – 141 AB

31 – Florida State SR 2B/SS John Sansone: power upside; steady glove; average speed; does the Florida State hitter things we’ve come to expect; can also play 3B; 5-11, 200 pounds

2013: .228/.378/.311 – 34 BB/54 K – 2/5 SB – 193 AB
2014: .221/.361/.317 – 29 BB/58 K – 6/8 SB – 199 AB
2015: .245/.382/.404 – 35 BB/66 K – 3/5 SB – 245 AB
2016: .374/.459/.585 – 27 BB/30 K – 8/10 SB – 246 AB

32 – Austin Peay JR 2B Garrett Copeland: good speed; good approach; 5-11, 200 pounds

2014: .228/.362/.330 – 40 BB/49 K – 13/18 SB – 206 AB
2015: .345/.463/.518 – 36 BB/32 K – 18/21 SB – 197 AB
2016: .304/.418/.424 – 40 BB/42 K – 11/18 SB – 217 AB

33 – Jacksonville SR 2B/SS JJ Gould: good glove; Florida State transfer; FAVORITE; 6-0, 200 pounds

2015: .272/.362/.377 – 24 BB/59 K – 4/5 SB – 191 AB
2016: .332/.441/.564 – 31 BB/49 K – 10/12 SB – 202 AB

34 – Dartmouth rSR 2B/SS Thomas Roulis: good hit tool, makes a lot of contact; pretty swing; uses whole field; above-average speed that plays up to plus because of first step quickness and smarts; not much power, present or raw; below-average arm limits him to second even though he has enough range for SS; old Jed Lowrie comp; 5-10, 175 pounds

2012: .257/.335/.349 – 15 BB/20 K – 3/4 SB – 152 AB
2014: .300/.335/.407 – 9 BB/14 K – 2/4 SB – 150 AB
2016: .328/.373/.420 – 8 BB/18 K – 1/4 SB – 131 AB

35 – Belmont SR 2B/OF Tyler Fullerton: steady glove; power upside; 5-9, 175 pounds

2015: .355/.444/.630 – 25 BB/28 K – 6/8 SB – 211 AB
2016: .336/.417/.621 – 9 BB/24 K – 5/5 SB – 116 AB

36 – Fort Wayne rSR 2B/SS Greg Kaiser: power upside; good glove; swings at everything; 6-3, 200 pounds

2014: .289/.339/.536 – 8 BB/32 K – 4/4 SB – 166 AB
2015: .361/.396/.639 – 6 BB/37 K – 5/5 SB – 194 AB
2016: .301/.364/.620 – 17 BB/50 K – 12/14 SB – 216 AB

37 – Pomona-Pitzer 2B Tanner Nishioka: average power; above-average hit tool; plus bat speed; 6-0, 180 pounds

2016: .418/.505/.646 – 19 BB/18 K – 10/13 SB – 158 AB

38 – Chipola JC JR 2B/SS Wood Myers: good speed; good glove; UNC transfer; 5-10, 180 pounds

2014: .298/.358/.358 – 19 BB/15 K – 6/10 SB – 218 AB
2015: .333/.444/.353 – 9 BB/0 K – 4/4 SB – 51 AB
*2016*: .357/.411/.498 – 17 BB/14 K – 13/19 SB – 207 AB

39 – North Carolina Greensboro JR 2B/OF Ben Spitznagel: plus speed; 5-11, 170 pounds

2016: .385/.459/.474 – 25 BB/21 K – 21/28 SB – 247 AB

40 – Grambling State SR 2B/SS Larry Barraza: sneaky pop; 5-8, 180 pounds

2015: .312/.401/.512 – 24 BB/13 K – 13/17 SB – 170 AB
2016: .359/.426/.624 – 18 BB/24 K – 7/10 SB – 181 AB

41 – Lewis & Clark SR 2B/SS Cabe Reiten: plus defensive tools; Gonzaga transfer; FAVORITE; 6-0, 180 pounds

2013: .216/.275/.281 – 7 BB/22 K – 1/1 SB – 139 AB
*2015*: .411/.488/.627 – 24 BB/25 K – 4 SB – 241 AB
*2016*: .273/.408/.402 – 32 BB/20 K – 1 SB – 194 AB

42 – Hartford SR 2B/SS Aaron Wilson: strong glove; good athlete; plus speed; 6-0, 180 pounds

2013: .214/.369/.252 – 21 BB/41 K – 4/6 SB – 103 AB
2014: .234/.339/.266 – 18 BB/32 K – 13/20 SB – 154 AB
2015: .250/.383/.346 – 25 BB/27 K – 7/10 SB – 136 AB
2016: .349/.446/.497 – 31 BB/36 K – 20/22 SB – 195 AB

43 – Rhode Island rSO 2B/3B Chris Hess: really good glove; good approach; average arm; has also played SS and 1B; 6-2, 200 pounds

2015: .326/.398/.481 – 18 BB/32 K – 10/15 SB – 181 AB
2016: .301/.379/.530 – 20 BB/44 K – 8/11 SB – 219 AB

44 – Seattle SR 2B/SS Sheldon Stober: good glove; average speed; quick bat; power upside; 5-9, 190 pounds

2015: .304/.365/.435 – 22 BB/25 K – 22/28 SB – 230 AB
2016: .353/.384/.513 – 13 BB/21 K – 12/15 SB – 238 AB)

45 – Florida International JR 2B/SS Irving Lopez: good defender; 5-10, 175 pounds

2016: .335/.394/.437 – 15 BB/20 K – 0/0 SB – 197 AB

46 – Long Island-Brooklyn SR 2B Brian Lamboy: 5-10, 180 pounds

2015: .327/.469/.418 – 24 BB/9 K – 14/15 SB – 110 AB
2016: .309/.419/.398 – 30 BB/9 K – 6/13 SB – 181 AB

47 – New Orleans JR 2B/SS Aaron Palmer: good glove; power upside; good speed; 5-10, 185 pounds

2016: .325/.390/.442 – 23 BB/27 K – 19/21 SB – 240 AB

48 – Florida A&M SR 2B Alec Wong: steady glove; 5-6, 160 pounds

2015: .271/.372/.400 – 24 BB/23 K – 2/3 SB – 170 AB
2016: .378/.504/.528 – 40 BB/29 K – 6/8 SB – 193 AB

49 – Bucknell SR 2B/OF Joe Ogren: steady all-around with interesting power/patience blend; 5-11, 200 pounds

2013: .270/.368/.401 – 15 BB/24 K – 1/4 SB – 137 AB
2014: .309/.401/.392 – 16 BB/27 K – 6/8 SB – 181 AB
2015: .357/.463/.536 – 27 BB/25 K – 7/8 SB – 168 AB
2016: .293/.402/.479 – 26 BB/26 K – 8/9 SB – 188 AB

50 – Princeton SR 2B Dan Hoy: good glove; power upside; 5-8, 175 pounds

2013: .340/.413/.493 – 15 BB/34 K – 12/13 SB – 150 AB
2014: .285/.361/.417 – 13 BB/29 K – 7/8 SB – 151 AB
2015: .311/.361/.576 – 7 BB/24 K – 1/5 SB – 132 AB
2016: .317/.380/.476 – 15 BB/26 K – 8/12 SB – 164 AB

51 – Bryant JR 2B/RHP Brandon Bingel: strong arm; solid pop; 5-10, 185 pounds

2014: .241/.331/.296 – 12 BB/11 K – 0/0 SB – 108 AB
2015: .317/.403/.522 – 19 BB/27 K – 2/2 SB – 180 AB
2016: .301/.360/.497 – 19 BB/27 K – 3/3 SB – 183 AB

2014: 5.40 K/9 – 5.40 BB/9 – 14 IP – 6.00 ERA
2015: 5.74 K/9 – 3.83 BB/9 – 47.1 IP – 3.26 ERA
2016: 8.03 K/9 – 2.63 BB/9 – 61.2 IP – 3.79 ERA

52 – Seton Hill JR 2B/SS Garrett Vrbanic: plus speed; can also play OF; 5-10, 180 pounds

2016: .315/.417/.490 – 20 BB/31 K – 30/38 SB – 200 AB

53 – Arkansas State JR 2B/3B Joe Schrimpf: does a little bit of everything well; 5-10, 180 pounds

2015: .249/.364/.380 – 27 BB/28 K – 4/5 SB – 205 AB
2016: .299/.420/.467 – 38 BB/37 K – 0/0 SB – 214 AB

54 – Cornell JR 2B/3B Tommy Wagner: limited experience, but has hit when called upon; 5-9, 175 pounds

2015: .308/.365/.352 – 8 BB/7 K – 4/5 SB – 91 AB
2016: .341/.429/.471 – 10 BB/7 K – 3/3 SB – 85 AB

55 – Nevada JR 2B Miles Mastrobuoni: good glove; 5-10, 175 pounds

2016: .364/.458/.474 – 38 BB/40 K – 18/21 SB – 228 AB

56 – Cincinnati rSO 2B Connor McVey: good speed; 6-0, 200 pounds

2014: .267/.344/.329 – 15 BB/22 K – 161 AB
2015: .167/.271/.262 – 3 BB/10 K – 1/1 SB – 42 AB
2016: .292/.379/.420 – 19 BB/26 K – 27/29 SB – 212 AB

57 – Oklahoma State JR 2B JR Davis: interesting hit tool; 5-9, 190 pounds

2016: .363/.444/.461 – 24 BB/18 K – 9/11 SB – 193 AB

58 – Oklahoma JR 2B/3B Jack Flansburg: great approach; FAVORITE; 5-11, 180 pounds

2016: .278/.401/.385 – 33 BB/28 K – 3/7 SB – 169 AB

59 – Miami JR 2B/SS Johnny Ruiz: good speed; steady glove; 5-11, 200 pounds

2014: .229/.352/.282 – 24 BB/24 K – 2/4 SB – 131 AB
2015: .315/.356/.361 – 8 BB/21 K – 0/0 SB – 108 AB
2016: .338/.429/.458 – 36 BB/48 K – 3/7 SB – 216 AB

60 – Arkansas SR 2B/SS Rick Nomura: good speed; steady glove; 5-9, 170 pounds

2015: .298/.370/.431 – 20 BB/25 K – 3/5 SB – 188 AB
2016: .272/.361/.415 – 27 BB/28 K – 6/8 SB – 195 AB

61 – Auburn JR 2B/OF Damon Haecker: good defensive tools; average at best arm; good hit tool; sneaky pop; has also played SS; 5-9, 175 pounds

2014: .259/.404/.280 – 35 BB/32 K – 11/18 SB – 189 AB
2015: .271/.404/.341 – 40 BB/37 K – 1/8 SB – 214 AB
2016: .248/.377/.310 – 23 BB/25 K – 6/8 SB – 145 AB

62 – Iowa JR 2B/3B Mason McCoy: average at best arm; average or better speed; steady glove; can also play SS; 6-0, 170 pounds

2016: .291/.367/.390 – 24 BB/48 K – 7/11 SB – 223 AB

63 – Auburn SR 2B/SS Melvin Gray: steady glove; plus speed; 5-8, 170 pounds

2015: .304/.372/.373 – 17 BB/29 K – 18/21 SB – 161 AB
2016: .268/.392/.329 – 21 BB/38 K – 12/18 SB – 149 AB

64 – Nebraska SR 2B/SS Jake Placzek: good speed; sneaky pop; good glove; 5-10, 185 pounds

2014: .271/.377/.312 – 33 BB/36 K – 3/3 SB – 199 AB
2015: .212/.331/.317 – 19 BB/26 K – 2/3 SB – 104 AB
2016: .286/.460/.455 – 56 BB/52 K – 7/10 SB – 189 AB

65 – San Jose State SR 2B Ozzy Braff: plus glove; 5-11, 200 pounds

*2014*: .358/.408/.536 – 13 BB/34 K – 8/8 SB – 151 AB
2015: .298/.397/.365 – 16 BB/23 K – 2/2 SB – 104 AB
2016: .284/.357/.477 – 19 BB/39 K – 7/11 SB – 197 AB

66 – Arkansas rSR 2B/SS Mike Bernal: good defender, can also play 3B; good athlete; Oklahoma State transfer; 5-11, 190 pounds

2014: .250/.357/.317 – 12 BB/41 K – 1/2 SB – 180 AB
2015: .269/.398/.366 – 29 BB/40 K – 2/7 SB – 175 AB
2016: .274/.338/.448 – 14 BB/35 K – 0/1 SB – 201 AB

67 – Minnesota SR 2B/SS Connor Schaefbauer: good speed; good athlete; good glove; smart player; quick bat; 6-1, 200 pounds

2013: .324/.399/.375 – 17 BB/20 K – 4/5 SB – 136 AB
2014: .287/.374/.374 – 24 BB/28 K – 13/15 SB – 195 AB
2015: .260/.318/.333 – 17 BB/41 K – 10/15 SB – 204 AB
2016: .307/.336/.423 – 13 BB/43 K – 3/8 SB – 215 AB

68 – Cal JR 2B/OF Robbie Tenerowicz: above-average power upside; average speed; very good glove; good approach; 6-1, 190 pounds

2014: .168/.274/.234 – 15 BB/26 K – 3/5 SB – 107 AB
2015: .182/.236/.220 – 9 BB/35 K – 0/1 SB – 132 AB
2016: .251/.302/.340 – 12 BB/31 K – 10/15 SB – 215 AB

69 – USC rSO 2B/SS Frankie Rios: good defensive tools; 5-10, 185 pounds

2014: .145/.232/.177 – 4 BB/12 K – 4/4 SB – 62 AB
2016: .323/.386/.419 – 14 BB/37 K – 5/11 SB – 186 AB

70 – Delaware JR 2B Nick Tierno: good approach; 5-9, 185 pounds

2016: .340/.429/.437 – 30 BB/20 K – 4/8 SB – 206 AB

71 – William & Mary JR 2B/SS Ryder Miconi: steadily improving bat; 5-8, 175 pounds

2014: .346/.500/.423 – 7 BB/4 K – 0/0 SB – 26 AB
2015: .208/.262/.323 – 6 BB/21 K – 0/0 SB – 96 AB
2016: .307/.421/.417 – 37 BB/28 K – 1/2 SB – 192 AB

72 – Northern Colorado rSR 2B/SS Ryan Yamane: steady glove; 5-9, 180 pounds

2015: .400/.476/.527 – 8 BB/8 K – 1/3 SB – 55 AB
2016: .278/.467/.383 – 44 BB/24 K – 4/4 SB – 133 AB

73 – Missouri Western State SR 2B/OF Orencio Fisher: sneaky pop; strong; plus speed; strong arm; can get too aggressive; 5-9, 150 pounds

2016: .337/.397/.474 – 23 BB/44 K – 28/32 SB – 249 AB

74 – Radford JR 2B Danny Hrbek: high contact hitter; 5-11, 180 pounds

2014: .275/.442/.475 – 8 BB/16 K – 0/0 SB – 40 AB
2015: .276/.350/.346 – 21 BB/47 K – 9/15 SB – 228 AB
2016: .329/.385/.458 – 17 BB/16 K – 7/9 SB – 225 AB

75 – Binghamton SR 2B Reed Gamache: sneaky pop; 6-0, 190 pounds

2014: .283/.362/.347 – 9 BB/38 K – 5/7 SB – 173 AB
2015: .288/.422/.388 – 24 BB/28 K – 1/1 SB – 139 AB
2016: .367/.450/.551 – 22 BB/35 K – 8/9 SB – 196 AB

2016 MLB Draft – Final Board (College First Basemen)

1 – Wake Forest JR 1B/RHP Will Craig: above-average to plus power upside; strong; very smart ballplayer in all phases of the game, though especially as a hitter; one of the best approaches to hitting in this class; AJ Reed comp just makes too much sense here; has also played 3B, a position he certainly has the arm for but likely not the hands/range; 87-93 FB, 94 peak; 78-83 CB; RHH; FAVORITE; 6-3, 230 pounds

2014: .280/.357/.439 – 20 BB/33 K – 1/1 SB – 189 AB
2015: .382/.496/.702 – 41 BB/24 K – 2/3 SB – 191 AB
2016: .379/.520/.731 – 47 BB/35 K – 0/1 SB – 182 AB

2015: 7.92 K/9 – 4.88 BB/9 – 44.1 IP – 6.09 ERA
2016: 8.04 K/9 – 3.86 BB/9 – 28.0 IP – 3.54 ERA

2 – Florida JR 1B Pete Alonso: easy plus raw power; one of the strongest players in this class; plus bat speed; good approach; average or better arm; slow, so outfield is likely a no go; improving defender at first, should be pretty good there with continued work; closer to Will Craig as another first round pick for me than not; RHH; 6-2, 225 pounds

2014: .264/.344/.376 – 19 BB/35 K – 1/1 SB – 197 AB
2015: .301/.398/.503 – 18 BB/22 K – 0/0 SB – 143 AB
2016: .368/.464/.632 – 29 BB/30 K – 2/3 SB – 193 AB

3 – New Mexico JR 1B/C Chris DeVito: plus raw power; patient approach; experience behind the plate could tempt some teams into trying him there; nickname is The Red Hercules; reminds me of Austin Allen (fourth round) in last year’s class; 6-2, 220 pounds

2015: .314/.398/.532 – 23 BB/27 K – 0/0 SB – 156 AB
2016: .377/.434/.693 – 25 BB/30 K – 0/0 SB – 228 AB

4 – North Carolina State JR 1B/OF Preston Palmeiro: good hit tool that allows him to square balls as a matter of routine; won’t be the type you can shift as he can spray line drives to all fields; no shock considering his bloodlines, but really pretty swing; above-average raw power; really good glove; good athlete; ascending player; 6-1, 185 pounds

2014: .284/.359/.343 – 13 BB/27 K – 2/3 SB – 102 AB
2015: .305/.381/.456 – 26 BB/37 K – 2/4 SB – 239 AB
2016: .326/.404/.536 – 29 BB/41 K – 1/1 SB – 233 AB

5 – Michigan JR 1B/LHP Carmen Benedetti: quick bat; power upside; has experience in OF; 88-92 FB, 94 peak; above-average 77-80 CU; 72-76 CB; I think of him as a better version of Brian Johnson, a prospect I preferred as a hitter just like I do with Benedetti; 6-2, 225 pounds

2014: .275/.318/.392 – 10 BB/25 K – 0/1 SB – 153 AB
2015: .352/.418/.541 – 28 BB/22 K – 1/2 SB – 233 AB
2016: .326/.465/.492 – 45 BB/29 K – 6/7 SB – 193 AB

2015: 13.80 K/9 – 7.80 BB/9 – 14.2 IP – 1.80 ERA
2016: 10.48 K/9 – 7.40 BB/9 – 14.2 IP – 2.45 ERA

6 – Dallas Baptist JR 1B/RHP Darick Hall: plus power upside; average or better hit tool; good glove; LHH; 88-91 FB; mid-70s CU; upper-70s SL; 6-4, 235 pounds

2016: .298/.417/.615 – 30 BB/49 K – 1/1 SB – 218 AB

2016: 8.84 K/9 – 1.61 BB/9 – 89.2 IP – 3.41 ERA

7 – Mississippi State JR 1B Nathaniel Lowe: very physical, very strong; above-average to plus raw power; good approach; plenty of arm; LHH; 6-4, 230 pounds

2016: .358/.429/.504 – 30 BB/30 K – 2/3 SB – 240 AB

8 – Michigan State JR 1B/2B Jordan Zimmerman: above-average hit tool; quick bat; good athlete; above-average arm; above-average speed; unsure where his bat/glove will fit best together, but easy to envision him as a valuable contributor in a variety of potential roles; 6-0, 185 pounds

2016: .374/.461/.594 – 32 BB/33 K – 10/16 SB – 219 AB

9 – Hartford JR 1B/3B David MacKinnon: one of the best athletes you’ll find manning first base; impressive hit tool; average or better speed; above-average or better glove; 6-2, 200 pounds

2014: .366/.406/.450 – 8 BB/20 K – 6/8 SB – 131 AB
2015: .351/.438/.443 – 25 BB/26 K – 7/7 SB – 194 AB
2016: .392/.471/.544 – 29 BB/18 K – 5/9 SB – 217 AB

10 – Southern Mississippi SR 1B Tim Lynch: plus raw power; good approach; really intriguing senior-sign thumper in a class in need of pop; LHH; 6-2, 215 pounds

2014: .256/.382/.312 – 32 BB/25 K – 1/3 SB – 199 AB
2015: .313/.400/.510 – 23 BB/23 K – 0/1 SB – 192 AB
2016: .364/.464/.548 – 36 BB/13 K – 0/1 SB – 228 AB

11 – Southern Illinois Edwardsville JR 1B Keaton Wright: above-average to plus raw power; good approach; has hit from his first day on campus on; 6-1, 230 pounds

2014: .294/.442/.405 – 41 BB/29 K – 0/0 SB – 163 AB
2015: .305/.410/.506 – 29 BB/20 K – 0/3 SB – 164 AB
2016: .362/.420/.530 – 16 BB/21 K – 0/2 SB – 185 AB

12 – Harford CC FR 1B Joseph Burton: average speed; good athlete; quick bat; strong; considerable power upside; RHH; 6-4, 240 pounds

2016: .407/.514/.749 – 37 BB/36 K – 23/24 SB – 199 AB

13 – Gonzaga SR 1B/RHP Taylor Jones: good approach; strong; good athlete; above-average glove; average speed; 85-89 FB; up and down CB; good athlete; FAVORITE; 6-7, 225 pounds

2015: .358/.414/.545 – 10 BB/16 K – 0/0 SB – 134 AB
2016: .332/.398/.507 – 22 BB/34 K – 0/0 SB – 229 AB

2013: 10.06 K/9 | 5.82 BB/9 | 3.65 FIP | 17 IP
2014: 6.29 K/9 – 4.07 BB/9 – 72 IP – 4.68 ERA

14 – Texas Tech SR 1B Eric Gutierrez: power upside; size may disqualify him from some boards, but those who value consistent production will take a liking to him; 5-10, 205 pounds

2013: .230/.363/.393 – 22 BB/39 K – 1/1 SB – 191 AB
2014: .302/.399/.539 – 26 BB/27 K – 0/1 SB – 245 AB
2015: .315/.444/.443 – 39 BB/26 K – 2/2 SB – 203 AB
2016: .341/.468/.610 – 37 BB/30 K – 3/4 SB – 205 AB

15 – Lee SR 1B Ben Holland: plus raw power; can get too aggressive, but has improved approach over time; good glove; 6-3, 225 pounds

2016: .424/.533/.859 – 38 BB/33 K – 7/8 SB – 177 AB

16 – Florida Atlantic rJR 1B/OF Esteban Puerta: another member of the “all he’s done is hit” team; 6-1, 183 pounds

2014: .276/.345/.371 – 11 BB/17 K – 0/0 SB – 105 AB
2015: .305/.432/.487 – 36 BB/34 K – 1/3 SB – 187 AB
2016: .309/.395/.507 – 29 BB/32 K – 2/2 SB – 223 AB

17 – Cal Poly JR 1B/C Brett Barbier: intriguing combination of hit tool, patience, and pop; has also played OF, where he might have enough speed and athleticism to stick for a bit; 5-11, 190 pounds

2016: .352/.492/.482 – 41 BB/35 K – 8/13 SB – 199 AB

18 – Cornell JR 1B Cole Rutherford: power upside; imposing size; 6-4, 230 pounds

2016: .276/.359/.512 – 14 BB/24 K – 1/1 SB – 127 AB

19 – Oakland JR 1B/OF Zach Sterry: plus approach; above-average power; quick bat; 5-11, 240 pounds

2014: .279/.359/.390 – 15 BB/25 K – 0/1 SB – 136 AB
2015: .288/.363/.444 – 16 BB/28 K – 5/9 SB – 160 AB
2016: .285/.352/.436 – 17 BB/34 K – 5/8 SB – 172 AB

20 – Lamar JR 1B Trey Silvers: intriguing power upside; 6-2, 220 pounds

2016: .314/.398/.676 – 14 BB/29 K – 0/0 SB – 102 AB

21 – Fairleigh Dickinson SR 1B/C John Giakas: interesting high-contact/honest power approach; 6-0, 200 pounds

2014: .294/.341/.344 – 8 BB/13 K – 1/1 SB – 160 AB
2015: .229/.303/.329 – 12 BB/24 K – 1/1 SB – 140 AB
2016: .342/.417/.600 – 19 BB/11 K – 3/6 SB – 190 AB

22 – Bryant SR 1B Robby Rinn: strong, patient, and smart; 6-2, 210 pounds

2014: .302/.432/.413 – 30 BB/16 K – 0/0 SB – 189 AB
2015: .332/.414/.582 – 19 BB/14 K – 3/5 SB – 184 AB
2016: .373/.442/.590 – 27 BB/15 K – 1/2 SB – 217 AB

23 – Manhattan SR 1B/OF Christian Santisteban: good approach; power upside; iffy glove; FAVORITE; 6-2, 215 pounds

2013: .268/.375/.464 – 23 BB/28 K – 1/2 SB – 138 AB
2014: .314/.389/.446 – 15 BB/30 K – 1/2 SB – 175 AB
2015: .301/.399/.449 – 27 BB/33 K – 1/1 SB – 176 AB
2016: .367/.453/.570 – 30 BB/38 K – 1/4 SB – 207 AB

24 – Louisiana SR 1B/2B Stefan Trosclair: good athlete; good glove; power upside; average speed; smart base runner; Jordan Zimmerman Lite; 6-2, 200 pounds

2015: .338/.441/.635 – 25 BB/41 K – 15/18 SB – 219 AB
2016: .279/.385/.466 – 25 BB/23 K – 7/13 SB – 219 AB

25 – Auburn JR 1B Niko Buentello: power upside; good approach; LHH; 6-4, 230 pounds

2016: .332/.428/.569 – 30 BB/48 K – 0/0 SB – 211 AB

26 – Florida Gulf Coast SR 1B Nick Rivera: strong; power upside; get him healthy and swinging the bat right again and he could be a late senior-sign steal; RHH; 5-10, 200 pounds

2013: .297/.403/.508 – 31 BB/37 K – 0/1 SB – 195 AB
2014: .330/.437/.525 – 37 BB/24 K – 0/2 SB – 221 AB
2015: .347/.458/.608 – 40 BB/34 K – 0/0 SB – 199 AB
2016: .293/.461/.466 – 12 BB/15 K – 0/0 SB – 58 AB

27 – Cowley County CC SO 1B/OF Caleb Eldridge: power upside; average speed; Oklahoma State transfer; 6-4, 235 pounds

2016: .391/.523/.781 – 41 BB/56 K – 4/4 SB – 169 AB

28 – Connecticut SR 1B Bobby Melley: good glove; consistent production; 6-3, 235 pounds

2013: .308/.393/.367 – 25 BB/31 K – 0/0 SB – 240 AB
2014: .359/.475/.502 – 31 BB/19 K – 2/2 SB – 209 AB
2015: .315/.401/.408 – 32 BB/30 K – 0/0 SB – 238 AB
2016: .313/.436/.518 – 42 BB/30 K – 1/2 SB – 224 AB

29 – Tulane rJR 1B/C Jeremy Montalbano: plus raw power; below-average arm; below-average defender behind the dish likely necessitates a full-time move to first in the pros; Texas transfer; 6-2, 215 pounds

2016: .276/.352/.507 – 23 BB/35 K – 0/1 SB – 221 AB

2016: 12.86 K/9 – 0.00 BB/9 – 7.0 IP – 2.57 ERA

30 – Texas A&M SR 1B/RHP Hunter Melton: power upside; can also play 3B; reminds me of a slighly later round version (arguable, according to some) of Darik Hall; 87-92 FB, 93 peak; good command; 6-2, 225 pounds

2013: .288/.354/.492 – 10 BB/29 K – 0/0 SB – 118 AB
2015: .300/.381/.473 – 25 BB/56 K – 0/1 SB – 203 AB
2016: .305/.379/.510 – 23 BB/60 K – 2/2 SB – 243 AB

31 – Mercyhurst SR 1B/OF Hank Morrison: power upside; average speed; 6-2, 225 pounds

2016: .415/.486/.684 – 19 BB/31 K – 14/17 SB – 193 AB

32 – Columbia rSR 1B Nick Maguire: above-average power; above-average speed; good glove; 6-3, 250 pounds

2014: .265/.354/.400 – 19 BB/25 K – 0/0 SB – 155 AB
2015: .242/.303/.427 – 13 BB/44 K – 1/1 SB – 178 AB
2016: .274/.413/.430 – 31 BB/26 K – 2/4 SB – 135 AB

33 – Cal State Northridge rSR 1B/OF Branden Berry: good glove; power flashes; Washington transfer; 6-4, 225 pounds

2012: .328/.406/.427 – 14 BB/35 K – 0/0 SB – 192 AB
2014: .262/.340/.335 – 16 BB/36 K – 2/3 SB – 164 AB
2015: .269/.372/.421 – 18 BB/44 K – 4/5 SB – 197 AB
2016: .294/.403/.508 – 22 BB/36 K – 4/5 SB – 197 AB

34 – Austin Peay JR 1B Dre Gleason: good athlete; strong; hits it a long way when he connects; 6-4, 240 pounds

2014: .261/.357/.378 – 26 BB/52 K – 2/3 SB – 180 AB
2015: .349/.434/.550 – 18 BB/38 K – 1/2 SB – 149 AB
2016: .337/.461/.571 – 41 BB/52 K – 2/2 SB – 184 AB

35 – Prairie View A&M JR 1B Shannon Washington: serious power combined with serious swing-and-miss; 6-0, 220 pounds

2016: .323/.414/.635 – 14 BB/29 K – 0/1 SB – 96 AB

36 – Tennessee-Martin JR 1B Ryan Helgren: solid bat; steady glove; 6-0, 200 pounds

2016: .321/.425/.545 – 21 BB/29 K – 1/1 SB – 134 AB

37 – Murray State JR 1B Ramsey Scott: intriguing size and power; 6-5, 240 pounds

2016: .335/.415/.612 – 27 BB/42 K – 1/1 SB – 206 AB

38 – Charlotte JR 1B/RHP Logan Sherer: power upside; strong arm; 6-3, 250 pounds

2014: .260/.306/.380 – 13 BB/39 K – 0/0 SB – 192 AB
2015: .311/.348/.477 – 10 BB/41 K – 1/1 SB – 193 AB
2016: .336/.412/.574 – 28 BB/47 K – 2/2 SB – 223 AB

2014: 6.00 K/9 – 3.60 BB/9 – 14 IP – 2.40 ERA
2015: 7.36 K/9 – 5.73 BB/9 – 11.1 IP – 4.91 ERA

39 – Georgia Southern JR 1B Ryan Cleveland: considerable power upside with the frame to pull it off; 6-3, 225 pounds

2014: .253/.368/.428 – 32 BB/49 K – 3/5 SB – 194 AB
2015: .244/.343/.477 – 24 BB/40 K – 9/11 SB – 176 AB
2016: .286/.404/.586 – 38 BB/70 K – 12/14 SB – 227 AB

40 – Ball State JR 1B/C Caleb Stayton: impressive power and patience blend; 6-3, 225 pounds

2014: .285/.374/.418 – 15 BB/17 K – 0/0 SB – 165 AB
2015: .278/.381/.411 – 8 BB/20 K – 0/0 SB – 90 AB
2016: .377/.482/.614 – 42 BB/40 K – 2/3 SB – 220 AB

41 – Cal State Monterey Bay SR 1B Justin Flores: power upside; plus approach; FAVORITE; 6-4, 210 pounds

2016: .306/.412/.446 – 31 BB/43 K – 0/0 SB – 186 AB

42 – Stephen F. Austin SR 1B Kyle Thornell: power upside; 6-2, 200 pounds

2014: .256/.374/.496 – 16 BB/35 K – 0/2 SB – 133 AB
2015: .301/.412/.524 – 20 BB/48 K – 3/6 SB – 166 AB
2016: .342/.472/.617 – 33 BB/55 K – 5/9 SB – 196 AB

43 – McNeese State SR 1B/OF Connor Crane: power upside; 6-3, 210 pounds

2015: .272/.340/.443 – 16 BB/53 K – 12/14 SB – 235 AB
2016: .365/.442/.606 – 16 BB/38 K – 15/21 SB – 203 AB

44 – Kansas State JR 1B Jake Scudder: good approach; smart hitter; some power there; FAVORITE; 6-0, 200 pounds

2016: .333/.392/.507 – 17 BB/32 K – 6/10 SB – 219 AB

45 – Air Force JR 1B Bradley Haslam: emerging power; 6-2, 200 pounds

2015: .347/.386/.452 – 6 BB/17 K – 2/3 SB – 124 AB
2016: .408/.449/.558 – 16 BB/17 K – 4/5 SB – 233 AB

46 – Liberty JR 1B/OF Andrew Yacyk: legit plus power upside; average speed; long way to go as a hitter; RHH; 6-3, 240 pounds

2015: .286/.355/.384 – 15 BB/49 K – 2/4 SB – 203 AB
2016: .307/.383/.492 – 19 BB/37 K – 0/1 SB – 238 AB

47 – Kentucky rSO 1B Joe Dudek: good glove; power upside; UNC transfer who sat out 2016 season; 6-1, 215 pounds

2014: .204/.316/.357 – 16 BB/27 K – 0/0 SB – 98 AB
2015: .255/.442/.402 – 34 BB/22 K – 1/2 SB – 102 AB

48 – Stony Brook JR 1B/OF Casey Baker: good hit tool; average raw power; good speed; steady glove; strong arm; 6-0, 180 pounds

2014: .338/.418/.415 – 18 BB/16 K – 8/8 SB – 130 AB
2015: .317/.377/.487 – 19 BB/23 K – 5/7 SB – 189 AB
2016: .314/.392/.367 – 25 BB/27 K – 4/5 SB – 188 AB

49 – East Carolina JR 1B/LHP Bryce Harman: plus power upside, but hit tool doesn’t allow him to tap into it; can be pitched to; strong arm; 90 FB; 6-6, 240 pounds

2014: .244/.338/.384 – 23 BB/58 K – 4/4 SB – 172 AB
2015: .244/.351/.424 – 23 BB/51 K – 0/0 SB – 205 AB
2016: .239/.369/.368 – 28 BB/43 K – 2/3 SB – 163 AB

50 – Louisiana rSO 1B/OF Steven Sensley: good hit tool; power upside; strong arm; can get too aggressive; loved him out of junior college and still believe in him, but his first full season at the D1 level left us with more questions than answers; LHH; 6-1, 220 pounds

*2015*: .374/.466/.778 – 35 BB/38 K – 13/17 SB – 203 AB
2016: .252/.345/.399 – 14 BB/41 K – 2/3 SB – 143 AB

 

2016 MLB Draft – Final Board (College Catchers)

1 – Miami JR C/1B Zack Collins: plus to plus-plus raw power; rough glove, but improved as the year progressed; plus arm strength could be a weapon if the footwork allows it; professional approach in the batter’s box; slow afoot, so outfield is not a possibility; still has some trouble with offspeed stuff, but better at identifying it now and still murders even the hottest fastballs; as confident that he’ll hit than any of his draft peers; obvious Kyle Schwarber comp isn’t perfect, but it’s not nearly as bad as some experts want to claim; older BA comp: Mark Teixeira; when Stephen Vogt is the realistic floor and Teixeira is the ceiling, you’ve reached top ten pick risk/reward balance; I’d seriously think about him 1-1 in this class; even as a first baseman, he has star upside; LHH; 6-3, 220 pounds

2014: .298/.427/.556 – 42 BB/47 K – 0/0 SB – 205 AB
2015: .302/.445/.587 – 57 BB/64 K – 7/8 SB – 242 AB
2016: .358/.534/.631 – 69 BB/48 K – 1/4 SB – 176 AB

2 – Virginia JR C Matt Thaiss: average defender, though I think he’s shown flashes of above-average ability in my personal views; others like his glove way less, so defense figures to be something to monitor going forward; average or better arm, plays up; average to above-average power, some have it plus; really good approach with an exceptionally well-balanced swing; strong and slow; better athlete than he appears at first; old BA comp: Brian McCann; LHH; FAVORITE; 6-0, 200 pounds

2014: .265/.306/.338 – 2 BB/13 K – 0/0 SB – 68 AB
2015: .323/.413/.512 – 33 BB/26 K – 4/4 SB – 254 AB
2016: .375/.473/.578 – 39 BB/16 K – 0/1 SB – 232 AB

3 – Wright State JR C Sean Murphy: plus to plus-plus arm; very good glove; above-average athlete; average to above-average power upside; quick bat; strong; moves well behind plate; now uses whole field like a seasoned veteran; checks every box for him athletically and has improved as a hitter every season; ascending player; FAVORITE; 6-2, 205 pounds

2014: .254/.375/.316 – 16 BB/18 K – 4/6 SB – 114 AB
2015: .329/.423/.458 – 28 BB/30 K – 7/10 SB – 225 AB
2016: .270/.391/.505 – 19 BB/15 K – 5/5 SB – 111 AB

4 – Louisville JR C Will Smith: average hit tool with a swing geared towards contact; average to above-average arm; steady glove; average at best power; easy average or better speed; plus athleticism is what separates him from a long list of comparable bats below him; 6-0, 190 pounds

2014: .221/.333/.273 – 10 BB/9 K – 3/3 SB – 77 AB
2015: .242/.333/.331 – 19 BB/27 K – 2/4 SB – 178 AB
2016: .380/.476/.573 – 18 BB/12 K – 9/10 SB – 150 AB

5 – Oregon State JR C Logan Ice: really good defender; average power upside; average arm; nothing jumps off the page, but another prospect who does everything well with little to no glaring weaknesses; BHH; 5-11, 190 pounds

2014: .250/.393/.279 – 40 BB/26 K – 5/5 SB – 172 AB
2015: .276/.362/.431 – 17 BB/22 K – 0/0 SB – 123 AB
2016: .310/.432/.563 – 37 BB/25 K – 2/2 SB – 174 AB

6 – Clemson JR C Chris Okey: good athlete; average hit tool; average or better defender; average at best speed; average or better power upside, could be plus; average or better arm, flashes plus; quick bat; old Jason Kendall comp; arguably the highest upside among the catchers most likely to stick at the position; said upside comes with the most risk in the way of concerns how his body type has shifted and a high level of swing-and-miss in his swing; RHH; FAVORITE; 5-11, 200 pounds

2014: .248/.311/.350 – 22 BB/33 K – 3/5 SB – 226 AB
2015: .315/.389/.545 – 27 BB/49 K – 3/3 SB – 235 AB
2016: .339/.465/.611 – 51 BB/54 K – 4/7 SB – 239 AB

7 – USC JR C Jeremy Martinez: good hit tool; average raw power; above-average to plus arm; curiously undervalued defender over the years; RHH: 5-11, 200 pounds

2014: .297/.380/.368 – 20 BB/14 K – 2/5 SB – 185 AB
2015: .296/.395/.367 – 32 BB/17 K – 0/0 SB – 226 AB
2016: .376/.460/.563 – 19 BB/12 K – 1/3 SB – 213 AB

8 – Murray State JR C Tyler Lawrence: great approach; glove has improved to the point where I think steady is a fair adjective to describe it; doesn’t blow it out with tools, but track record with the bat is hard to ignore; 5-10, 200 pounds

2014: .313/.397/.389 – 28 BB/21 K – 1/2 SB – 208 AB
2015: .302/.391/.571 – 27 BB/38 K – 2/3 SB – 205 AB
2016: .355/.469/.589 – 44 BB/42 K – 1/2 SB – 214 AB

9 – Cal SO C/1B Brett Cumberland: good hit tool; average or better arm; good enough glove to at least start with the thought he’s a long-term catcher, but still raw in areas that will require significant time and attention in pro ball; undeniable power upside makes him particularly intriguing; BHH; 5-11, 200 pounds

2015: .254/.405/.429 – 33 BB/41 K – 0/0 SB – 177 AB
2016: .344/.480/.678 – 38 BB/40 K – 5/5 SB – 180 AB

10 – Tulane JR C Jake Rogers: average to above-average power upside, currently plays down; plus athlete; really intriguing glove, chance for plus to plus-plus overall defensive game; excels at pitch-framing; exceptionally strong arm (plus to plus-plus for me), others like it less; could be better version of Austin Hedges; reminds me some of Buster Posey defensively and athletically, though not at all as a hitter; RHH; 6-2, 185 pounds

2014: .202/.264/.245 – 12 BB/23 K – 1/3 SB – 163 AB
2015: .227/.330/.256 – 26 BB/28 K – 4/5 SB – 176 AB
2016: .260/.382/.395 – 33 BB/39 K – 13/13 SB – 200 AB

11 – Kansas JR C Michael Tinsley: great athlete; good speed; could be described as Will Smith with less helium; LHH; 6-0, 200 pounds

2014: .361/.426/.459 – 7 BB/7 K – 2/3 SB – 61 AB
2015: .337/.407/.459 – 24 BB/19 K – 4/5 SB – 196 AB
2016: .377/.460/.495 – 32 BB/18 K – 9/10 SB – 212 AB

12 – Arizona State JR C Brian Serven: really good defender; plus athleticism and mobility behind plate; really strong arm; average or better raw power; picking one of him, Will Smith, Jake Rogers, or Michael Tinsley comes down to personal prefence as all share many similar traits; 6-0, 200 pounds

2014: .249/.360/.355 – 20 BB/40 K – 1/2 SB – 169 AB
2015: .294/.351/.448 – 11 BB/31 K – 3/3 SB – 194 AB
2016: .293/.349/.418 – 16 BB/28 K – 1/2 SB – 208 AB

13 – UNC Wilmington rJR C Gavin Stupienski: good hit tool; steady glove; flashes power to gaps; good enough arm; high marks for all the intangibles across the board; LHH; FAVORITE; 6-2, 220 pounds

2014: .257/.364/.343 – 7 BB/10 K – 0/0 SB – 35 AB
2015: .344/.415/.516 – 22 BB/30 K – 2/2 SB – 186 AB
2016: .350/.448/.587 – 38 BB/27 K – 3/5 SB – 223 AB

14 – Mississippi State JR C Jack Kruger: good hit tool; average or better power; steady glove; good arm; Oregon transfer; 6-2, 200 pounds

2016: .350/.435/.562 – 28 BB/29 K – 6/7 SB – 203 AB

15 – Spartanburg Methodist CC C Tyler Lancaster: solid glove; power upside; 6-3, 210 pounds

2016: .376/.467/.608 – 36 BB/34 K – 1/3 SB – 194 AB

16 – Jackson State JR C Carlos Diaz: good defender; strong arm; intriguing offensive output; Miami transfer; 5-11, 200 pounds

2016: .409/.465/.620 – 15 BB/16 K – 10/12 SB – 171 AB

17 – UMBC JR C Hunter Dolshun: power upside; steady glove; 6-1, 225 pounds

2014: .304/.400/.422 – 20 BB/21 K – 2/2 SB – 135 AB
2015: .293/.391/.377 – 26 BB/38 K – 3/3 SB – 191 AB
2016: .345/.416/.603 – 21 BB/14 K – 1/3 SB – 174 AB

18 – UC Santa Barbara rSO C Dempsey Grover: power upside; strong arm; good defensive tools; 6-1, 200 pounds

2014: .238/.360/.286 – 3 BB/3 K – 21 AB
2016: .284/.393/.403 – 29 BB/29 K – 6/6 SB – 176 AB

19 – Mercer JR C Charlie Madden: power upside; good glove; should benefit from Kyle Lewis scouting spillover; 6-3, 200 pounds

2014: .269/.357/.425 – 16 BB/30 K – 2/3 SB – 134 AB
2015: .272/.359/.485 – 26 BB/49 K – 1/1 SB – 202 AB
2016: .287/.385/.492 – 28 BB/38 K – 1/4 SB – 195 AB

20 – San Jacinto JC C/OF Ryan January: plus bat speed; average hit tool; above-average raw power; average to above-average arm; average glove, still needs work; 6-3, 200 pounds

2016: .339/.450/.655 – 29 BB/59 K – 9/12 SB – 177 AB

21 – Bethune-Cookman JR C Michael Cruz: well-rounded hitter; solid defender; 5-11, 210 pounds

2016: .330/.463/.623 – 35 BB/24 K – 0/2 SB – 191 AB

22 – North Florida SR C Keith Skinner: interesting power upside; love the plate discipline; 6-1, 210 pounds

2015: .325/.395/.429 – 19 BB/19 K – 0/1 SB – 154 AB
2016: .382/.466/.486 – 36 BB/14 K – 2/2 SB – 212 AB

23 – Austin Peay JR C/3B Ridge Smith: good athlete; above-average speed; has also played OF and 1B; 5-10, 190 pounds

2014: .310/.383/.481 – 24 BB/41 K – 11/15 SB – 216 AB
2015: .339/.424/.487 – 26 BB/28 K – 13/21 SB – 189 AB
2016: .273/.388/.536 – 32 BB/45 K – 7/8 SB – 183 AB

24 – LSU JR C Jordan Romero: legit plus arm; good glove; strong; 6-2, 225 pounds

2016: .307/.383/.562 – 16 BB/23 K – 0/1 SB – 137 AB

25 – Ball State JR C Jarett Rindfleisch: strong arm; good glove; 6-1, 215 pounds

2014: .352/.447/.520 – 11 BB/17 K – 0/0 SB – 125 AB
2015: .310/.417/.518 – 29 BB/43 K – 0/2 SB – 197 AB
2016: .307/.446/.503 – 32 BB/40 K – 1/1 SB – 179 AB

26 – North Carolina State JR C/3B Andrew Knizner: good defender, raw (struggles with balls in dirt) but getting there; above-average to plus raw arm strength, but inconsistent accuracy; average to above-average power, some have it plus; quick bat; defense has improved as offense has backed up; 6-1, 200 pounds

2014: .330/.373/.450 – 4 BB/21 K – 0/0 SB – 209 AB
2015: .317/.360/.426 – 12 BB/18 K – 0/0 SB – 230 AB
2016: .296/.360/.395 – 20 BB/35 K – 3/3 SB – 233 AB

27 – Minnesota JR C Austin Athmann: strong arm; steady glove; smart; average power; chance for average hit tool; 6-2, 210 pounds

2014: .277/.344/.337 – 6 BB/10 K – 1/1 SB – 83 AB
2015: .286/.317/.337 – 3 BB/13 K – 1/2 SB – 98 AB
2016: .356/.427/.601 – 14 BB/33 K – 0/0 SB – 188 AB

28 – Rhode Island JR C/3B Martin Figueroa: strong hit tool; power upside; can also play OF: 5-11, 200 pounds

2014: .239/.330/.283 – 6 BB/17 K – 1/2 SB – 92 AB
2015: .293/.346/.454 – 11 BB/25 K – 6/7 SB – 174 AB
2016: .335/.390/.542 – 17 BB/21 K – 8/15 SB – 212 AB

29 – Mississippi JR C Henri Lartigue: quick bat; good approach; power upside; plus arm; good glove, but still signs of rawness; good athlete; 6-0, 200 pounds

2015: .225/.289/.348 – 6 BB/24 K – 0/0 SB – 89 AB
2016: .353/.414/.464 – 20 BB/40 K – 2/3 SB – 207 AB

30 – Northwest Florida State CC C Handsome Monica: big raw power; good approach; strong arm; raw glove; good athlete; Arizona transfer; 6-1, 220 pounds

2016: .348/.418/.684 – 18 BB/23 K – 5/6 SB – 158 AB

31 – Winthrop SR C Roger Gonzalez: plus defender; Miami transfer; 5-9, 190 pounds

2015: .335/.409/.425 – 21 BB/28 K – 1/1 SB – 167 AB
2016: .338/.426/.534 – 31 BB/28 K – 0/2 SB – 204 AB

32 – Furman JR C Cameron Whitehead: plus defender; good athlete; power upside; 5-11, 210 pounds

2014: .229/.360/.313 – 17 BB/18 K – 1/1 SB – 83 AB
2015: .258/.314/.444 – 14 BB/40 K – 1/1 SB – 151 AB
2016: .340/.435/.509 – 14 BB/29 K – 0/0 SB – 106 AB

33 – Texas JR C/3B Tres Barrera: strong arm; good defensive tools; average to above-average raw power; slow; also played 2B this year; 6-0, 225 pounds

2014: .261/.337/.402 – 21 BB/41 K – 0/0 SB – 241 AB
2015: .288/.395/.481 – 33 BB/39 K – 0/0 SB – 212 AB
2016: .289/.379/.455 – 28 BB/54 K – 3/5 SB – 211 AB

34 – McLennan CC SO C Cory Voss: good glove; 5-10, 190 pounds

2016: .384/.513/.701 – 42 BB/45 K – 3/4 SB – 177 AB

35 – Lynn SO C John Silviano: plus approach; 6-1, 220 pounds

2016: .405/.528/.950 – 51 BB/40 K – 5/6 SB – 200 AB

36 – Central Arizona C Brent Gibbs: good defender; plus to plus-plus arm; 88-91 FB; Indiana transfer; 6-1, 215 pounds

2016: .396/.497/.590 – 15 BB/22 K – 1/2 SB – 144 AB

37 – Illinois SR C Jason Goldstein: really good defender; strong arm; good approach; quick bat; really smart catcher, calls own pitches; still like him as rock solid org guy and potential backup, but have cooled some since last year; FAVORITE; 6-0, 210 pounds

2013: .210/.266/.252 – 9 BB/21 K – 3/3 SB – 143 AB
2014: .316/.370/.435 – 16 BB/17 K – 2/3 SB – 193 AB
2015: .286/.369/.476 – 23 BB/22 K – 2/3 SB – 206 AB
2016: .312/.402/.412 – 16 BB/23 K – 2/2 SB – 170 AB

38 – Baylor rJR C Matt Menard: good athlete; power upside; good glove; 6-0, 210 pounds

2014: .219/.297/.295 – 16 BB/34 K – 1/4 SB – 146 AB
2015: .245/.346/.291 – 13 BB/22 K – 1/2 SB – 110 AB
2016: .309/.376/.500 – 16 BB/30 K – 0/0 SB – 152 AB

39 – Georgia State SR C Joey Roach: good glove; 5-11, 200 pounds

2013: .287/.366/.487 – 12 BB/20 K – 2/4 SB – 115 AB
2014: .301/.379/.432 – 13 BB/27 K – 1/1 SB – 146 AB
2015: .302/.381/.473 – 20 BB/25 K – 1/1 SB – 205 AB
2016: .325/.426/.598 – 21 BB/21 K – 3/4 SB – 169 AB

40 – Penn JR C Tim Graul: took over for Austin Bossart and hit from beginning of season to end; 6-0, 200 pounds

2015: .245/.328/.429 – 3 BB/13 K – 1/2 SB – 49 AB
2016: .364/.443/.642 – 20 BB/24 K – 2/4 SB – 162 AB

41 – Morehead State JR C Jimmy Wright: power upside; strong; 6-0, 200 pounds

2014: .229/.363/.373 – 13 BB/23 K – 0/1 SB – 83 AB
2015: .250/.396/.393 – 11 BB/35 K – 0/0 SB – 84 AB
2016: .254/.418/.522 – 15 BB/22 K – 1/2 SB – 67 AB

42 – Southeast Missouri State SR C/1B Garrett Gandolfo: consistently impressive with the bat in his hands; 6-1, 200 pounds

2015: .303/.427/.528 – 40 BB/41 K – 1/2 SB – 178 AB
2016: .359/.465/.589 – 41 BB/28 K – 4/5 SB – 209 AB

43 – Seattle JR C/1B Mike McCann: power upside; torn thumb ligament in April 2016; 6-2, 200 pounds

2014: .232/.346/.290 – 24 BB/33 K – 0/2 SB – 155 AB
2016: .319/.491/.445 – 37 BB/19 K – 1/2 SB – 119 AB

44 – Michigan JR C Harrison Wenson: power upside; strong arm; good athlete; improved glove; 6-3, 220 pounds

2014: .222/.308/.378 – 2 BB/15 K – 0/0 SB – 45 AB
2016: .289/.345/.491 – 19 BB/55 K – 3/3 SB – 218 AB

45 – Pepperdine JR C Aaron Barnett: good defender; average at best arm; good hit tool; FAVORITE; 6-0, 185 pounds

2014: .359/.381/.390 – 10 BB/12 K – 1/2 SB – 223 AB
2015: .303/.357/.360 – 17 BB/12 K – 0/1 SB – 228 AB
2016: .292/.345/.403 – 16 BB/15 K – 0/1 SB – 216 AB

46 – Santa Clara JR C Steve Berman: strong arm; 6-2, 225 pounds

2014: .322/.443/.459 – 30 BB/21 K – 4/7 SB – 183 AB
2015: .336/.417/.493 – 18 BB/24 K – 0/0 SB – 146 AB
2016: .297/.432/.466 – 26 BB/26 K – 0/2 SB – 148 AB

47 – Texas A&M SR C Michael Barash: really good glove; average at best arm; LSU transfer; 6-1, 200 pounds

2015: .238/.316/.292 – 16 BB/20 K – 1/3 SB – 168 AB
2016: .328/.397/.436 – 18 BB/20 K – 1/2 SB – 204 AB

48 – Chipola JC C Mike Hickman: strong; quick bat; LHH; 6-1, 200 pounds

2016: .345/.442/.610 – 17 BB/38 K – 1/2 SB – 177 AB

49 – Auburn JR C Blake Logan: really good defender; 6-0, 200 pounds

2014: .256/.343/.326 – 10 BB/15 K – 0/0 SB – 86 AB
2015: .261/.329/.378 – 15 BB/25 K – 3/6 SB – 180 AB
2016: .274/.357/.395 – 21 BB/32 K – 0/1 SB – 190 AB

50 – Tennessee SO C Benito Santiago: above-average arm; strong; bloodlines and upside; 5-11, 175 pounds

2015: .132/.205/.145 – 5 BB/29 K – 5/5 SB – 76 AB
2016: .309/.362/.420 – 14 BB/58 K – 5/8 SB – 181 AB

51 – Oklahoma JR C Renae Martinez: above-average arm; above-average glove; UC Irvine transfer; 6-1, 185 pounds

2016: .246/.380/.415 – 12 BB/12 K – 0/0 SB – 65 AB

52 – Texas Rio Grande Valley JR C/OF Jose Garcia: good athlete; average speed; 6-0, 200 pounds

2016: .369/.447/.477 – 18 BB/14 K – 16/19 SB – 176 AB

53 – Maryland JR C/1B Nick Cieri: great approach; plus power upside; average at best glove; below-average arm, but improving; below-average speed; strong; bat backing up + defensive question marks = major dip in draft stock; 6-3, 240 pounds

2014: .248/.329/.308 – 15 BB/16 K – 2/2 SB – 133 AB
2015: .299/.373/.401 – 11 BB/18 K – 2/3 SB – 137 AB
2016: .249/.375/.362 – 32 BB/25 K – 0/1 SB – 177 AB

54 – Northwestern State rJR C Daniel Garner: plus raw power; strong arm; Mississippi State transfer; 6-1, 235 pounds

2016: .308/.380/.481 – 23 BB/53 K – 0/1 SB – 208 AB

55 – Coastal Carolina JR C/1B GK Young: power upside; strong arm; way too aggressive; go back and forth on his defense, but if pressed I’d admit he’s probably not a pro catcher; 6-1, 230 pounds

2014: .237/.333/.382 – 18 BB/38 K – 0/1 SB – 173 AB
2015: .301/.368/.476 – 19 BB/50 K – 0/0 SB – 229 AB
2016: .339/.393/.569 – 19 BB/54 K – 1/2 SB – 239 AB

56 – Wake Forest JR C Ben Breazeale: good glove; good approach; strong; big draft year breakout didn’t exactly come, so still more there; 6-0, 210 pounds

2015: .274/.378/.400 – 14 BB/25 K – 1/1 SB – 95 AB
2016: .246/.388/.335 – 41 BB/39 K – 1/1 SB – 179 AB

57 – Belmont JR C/OF Clay Payne: strong arm; quick bat; strong; RHH; 6-3, 210 pounds

2016: .291/.364/.552 – 22 BB/51 K – 2/3 SB – 203 AB

58 – Kennesaw State SR C Brennan Morgan: interesting power/patience blend; 6-4, 235 pounds

2014: .281/.357/.386 – 20 BB/34 K – 2/3 SB – 210 AB
2015: .276/.383/.400 – 29 BB/31 K – 5/6 SB – 185 AB
2016: .319/.443/.514 – 33 BB/22 K – 0/2 SB – 144 AB

59 – Southern rSR C Jose DeLa Torre: all he’s done is hit; 6-1, 220 pounds

2014: .330/.383/.539 – 11 BB/20 K – 0/0 SB – 115 AB
2016: .339/.476/.522 – 26 BB/23 K – 10/11 SB – 115 AB

60 – Xavier SR C Dan Rizzie: quick bat; plus defender; high marks for intangibles; 6-2, 200 pounds

2014: .307/.395/.459 – 28 BB/37 K – 9/12 SB – 218 AB
2015: .275/.373/.275 – 6 BB/10 K – 2/2 SB – 51 AB
2016: .312/.373/.472 – 21 BB/25 K – 7/8 SB – 231 AB

61 – Ohio State JR C Jalen Washington: plus athlete; FAVORITE; 6-1, 200 pounds

2015: .280/.367/.280 – 4 BB/1 K – 4/5 SB – 25 AB
2016: .249/.352/.343 – 26 BB/49 K – 14/19 SB – 213 AB

62 – Navy JR C Adrian Chinnery: really good glove; 6-0, 180 pounds

2015: .314/.393/.401 – 22 BB/36 K – 0/0 SB – 172 AB
2016: .307/.412/.407 – 17 BB/7 K – 0/0 SB – 140 AB

63 – Florida A&M JR C Jacky Miles: strong arm; power upside; RHH; 6-0, 200 pounds

2016: .328/.420/.477 – 21 BB/27 K – 0/0 SB – 174 AB

64 – Bryant SR C/OF Buck McCarthy: steady glove; power upside; strong; 5-10, 200 pounds

2014: .340/.438/.525 – 20 BB/29 K – 2/2 SB – 141 AB
2015: .303/.406/.507 – 26 BB/34 K – 0/3 SB – 142 AB
2016: .281/.371/.495 – 27 BB/30 K – 1/3 SB – 196 AB

65 – North Carolina Central JR C Conrad Kovalcik: good athlete; 6-0, 200 pounds

2014: .324/.378/.353 – 3 BB/11 K – 0/0 SB – 34 AB
2015: .260/.381/.394 – 18 BB/25 K – 4/5 SB – 104 AB
2016: .243/.367/.486 – 32 BB/34 K – 1/3 SB – 177 AB

66 – St. Mary’s JR C Nate Nolan: plus raw power; strong arm; very concerned about his swing-and-miss; PG comp: Chris Iannetta; 6-1, 210 pounds

2014: .238/.300/.436 – 9 BB/37 K – 1/3 SB – 101 AB
2015: .291/.367/.430 – 10 BB/39 K – 0/0 SB – 86 AB
2016: .264/.364/.481 – 28 BB/81 K – 1/1 SB – 212 AB

67 – Arizona State SR C RJ Ybarra: plus arm strength; above-average to plus power; slow; good approach; raw defensively; 6-0, 230 pounds

2013: .304/.361/.491 – 5 BB/27 K – 0/0 SB – 112 AB
2014: .273/.342/.394 – 19 BB/45 K – 1/1 SB – 198 AB
2015: .289/.382/.493 – 23 BB/34 K – 1/3 SB – 142 AB
2016: .245/.362/.306 – 8 BB/11 K – 0/0 SB – 49 AB

68 – Vanderbilt JR C Jason Delay: good defender; average arm; better player than he’s shown, but lack of development with the bat keeps me away; 6-0, 190 pounds

2014: .246/.374/.325 – 17 BB/32 K – 1/1 SB – 114 AB
2015: .283/.373/.394 – 10 BB/20 K – 0/0 SB – 99 AB
2016: .248/.296/.336 – 7 BB/35 K – 1/5 SB – 149 AB

69 – South Alabama rSO C/OF Jared Barnes: plus arm; power upside; 5-11, 200 pounds

2015: .240/.313/.292 – 16 BB/19 K – 4/5 SB – 171 AB
2016: .299/.394/.478 – 27 BB/37 K – 1/2 SB – 184 AB

70 – East Carolina rJR C Travis Watkins: good glove; power upside; 6-0, 200 pounds

2015: .292/.343/.358 – 18 BB/31 K – 6/8 SB – 212 AB
2016: .322/.402/.430 – 25 BB/38 K – 3/5 SB – 214 AB

71 – Southern Mississippi JR C Chuckie Robinson: power upside; strong; can be too aggressive at plate; solid glove; above-average arm; 6-0, 230 pounds

2015: .203/.273/.354 – 8 BB/14 K – 0/0 SB – 79 AB
2016: .299/.360/.448 – 18 BB/31 K – 0/1 SB – 201 AB

72 – Southeastern Louisiana rSR C Sam Roberson: missed 2015 due to injury; solid skill set across the board5-11, 190 pounds

2013: .209/.283/.264 – 20 BB/30 K – 7/11 SB – 201 AB
2014: .296/.380/.423 – 20 BB/28 K – 8/11 SB – 189 AB
2016: .303/.435/.455 – 15 BB/23 K – 0/4 SB – 99 AB

73 – Cypress CC C Nate Rodriguez: plus glove; above-average arm; 5-11, 210 pounds

2016: .311/.395/.402 – 24 BB/11 K – 5/5 SB – 164 AB

74 – College of Charleston rJR C/1B Jake Maziar: power upside; Wake Forest transfer; 6-2, 220 pounds

2016: .297/.426/.405 – 19 BB/23 K – 1/1 SB – 111 AB

75 – Bethune-Cookman rJR C Clay Middleton: good glove; good approach; 6-0, 200 pounds

2016: .361/.471/.445 – 29 BB/24 K – 0/0 SB – 155 AB

76 – St. John’s JR C Troy Dixon: good glove; strong arm; one of the better pop times I’ve ever personally recorded; long way to go, but could throw his way to the big leagues as a backup; 6-2, 200 pounds

2014: .284/.409/.330 – 14 BB/14 K – 0/1 SB – 109 AB
2015: .254/.324/.344 – 7 BB/12 K – 0/0 SB – 122 AB
2016: .253/.338/.339 – 18 BB/17 K – 3/3 SB – 174 AB

77 – Georgia Tech JR C Arden Pabst: power upside; has yet to put it all together; 6-1, 210 pounds

2014: .217/.321/.283 – 13 BB/26 K – 1/1 SB – 120 AB
2015: .235/.355/.339 – 21 BB/32 K – 2/2 SB – 115 AB
2016: .248/.305/.372 – 10 BB/33 K – 1/3 SB – 137 AB

78 – Duke JR C Cristian Perez: good defensive tools; power upside; strong; good athlete; quick bat; too aggressive for his own good; 6-3, 215 pounds

2014: .189/.295/.378 – 6 BB/14 K – 0/0 SB – 37 AB
2015: .241/.325/.365 – 19 BB/48 K – 0/0 SB – 170 AB
2016: .234/.305/.400 – 16 BB/44 K – 1/1 SB – 175 AB

79 – Texas Tech rJR C Kholton Sanchez (2015): plus to plus-plus speed; above-average arm; no power; raw defender; could be tried at 2B or CF; tools intrigue the heck out of me, but can’t get on the field to show them off; 6-2, 180 pounds

80 – Boston College JR C Nick Sciortino: good glove; average or better arm; experience (and exposure) that comes with catching big-time arms should help; 5-9, 200 pounds

2015: .235/.304/.301 – 14 BB/36 K – 4/5 SB – 153 AB
2016: .277/.377/.361 – 19 BB/33 K – 1/3 SB – 155 AB

81 – Virginia SR C Robbie Coman: good glove; missed majority of season due to injury, but might have done enough previously to get a late look; 6-1, 200 pounds

2014: .283/.377/.368 – 13 BB/9 K – 106 AB
2015: .289/.360/.333 – 21 BB/21 K – 2/7 SB – 201 AB
2016: .200/.333/.200 – 2 BB/4 K – 0/0 SB – 15 AB)

82 – Florida State JR C/OF Gage West: as yet untapped power upside; good approach; typical Florida State catching prospect; 6-1, 200 pounds

2014: .161/.216/.452 – 3 BB/9 K – 0/0 SB – 31 AB
2015: .231/.351/.354 – 5 BB/16 K – 0/0 SB – 65 AB
2016: .293/.404/.387 – 14 BB/19 K – 1/2 SB – 75 AB

83 – North Carolina State SR C Chance Shepard: power upside; way too aggressive; 6-1, 230 pounds

2014: .234/.379/.394 – 22 BB/34 K – 1/3 SB – 94 AB
2015: .214/.342/.449 – 20 BB/36 K – 1/1 SB – 98 AB
2016: .276/.377/.557 – 34 BB/82 K – 3/3 SB – 210 AB

84 – Alabama JR C Will Haynie: plus raw power; plus arm; good defender; has the size/arm/power trio to get drafted much higher than this, but the approach scares me off; old Ben Davis comp; 6-5, 230 pounds

2014: .177/.231/.274 – 7 BB/51 K – 0/0 SB – 113 AB
2015: .195/.299/.391 – 21 BB/80 K – 1/2 SB – 169 AB
2016: .225/.291/.423 – 12 BB/55 K – 0/0 SB – 182 AB

85 – BYU JR C Bronson Larsen: some power upside worth exploring; 5-11, 200 pounds

2015: .288/.367/.432 – 12 BB/30 K – 2/2 SB – 132 AB
2016: .301/.405/.514 – 30 BB/32 K – 0/1 SB – 173 AB

86 – Pittsburgh SR C Alex Kowalczyk: strong arm; 6-2, 220 pounds

2015: .263/.335/.369 – 16 BB/28 K – 2/3 SB – 179 AB
2016: .315/.409/.569 – 20 BB/30 K – 3/4 SB – 181 AB

87 – Evansville SR C/2B Brett Synek: smart hitter; versatile defender; 5-9, 185 pounds

2015: .288/.418/.423 – 10 BB/3 K – 0/0 SB – 52 AB
2016: .341/.439/.514 – 31 BB/22 K – 3/4 SB – 214 AB

88 – Loyola Marymount JR C Cassidy Brown: power upside; plus arm; 6-3, 215 pounds

2014: .200/.261/.237 – 7 BB/15 K – 1/2 SB – 80 AB
2015: .138/.250/.138 – 11 BB/29 K – 4/5 SB – 130 AB
2016: .325/.394/.502 – 18 BB/44 K – 4/6 SB – 209 AB

89 – Francis Marion C JD Crowe: quick bat; really good approach; power upside; steady glove; strong arm; good athlete; could play OF; Auburn transfer; 5-11, 210 pounds

2016: .347/.439/.539 – 33 BB/27 K – 11/11 SB – 193 AB

90 – UCLA rJR C Darrell Miller: missed the 2016 season with a bum labrum; strong arm; raw defender, but has gotten pretty good; Bruins missed him in a major way this past year; 6-2, 220 pounds

2015: .257/.324/.351 – 16 BB/26 K – 0/0 SB – 191 AB

91 – Tampa C/1B Adrian Chacon: above-average arm; quick bat; power upside; 6-0, 200 pounds

2014: .233/.313/.337 – 7 BB/20 K – 0/2 SB – 86 AB
2015: .295/.389/.328 – 9 BB/16 K – 2/2 SB – 61 AB
2016: .301/.419/.442 – 28 BB/31 K – 1/2 SB – 163 AB

92 – Vanderbilt JR C Karl Ellison: really good defender; 6-0, 190 pounds

2014: .192/.352/.219 – 13 BB/18 K – 0/2 SB – 73 AB
2015: .215/.291/.282 – 14 BB/39 K – 1/1 SB – 149 AB
2016: .213/.270/.388 – 6 BB/14 K – 0/0 SB – 80 AB

93 – Arkansas SR C Tucker Pennell: good glove; 6-2, 200 pounds

2015: .200/.271/.232 – 7 BB/22 K – 0/0 SB – 95 AB
2016: .265/.338/.382 – 12 BB/28 K – 2/3 SB – 136 AB

94 – Portland JR C Cooper Hummel: solid approach; decent wheels; 5-10, 180 pounds

2016: .320/.422/.490 – 34 BB/41 K – 7/10 SB – 194 AB

95 – Nevada rSR C Justin Hazard: UCLA transfer; 6-2, 190 pounds

2016: .339/.378/.476 – 13 BB/25 K – 2/3 SB – 189 AB

96 – UC Davis SR C Cameron Olson: plus raw power; plus arm; defense improving; 6-1, 200 pounds

2013: .286/.365/.381 – 5 BB/24 K – 0/0 SB – 84 AB
2015: .208/.323/.453 – 6 BB/18 K – 1/1 SB – 53 AB
2016: .273/.365/.503 – 15 BB/38 K – 6/8 SB – 143 AB

97 – Western Illinois JR C Adam McGinnis: good approach; power upside; quick bat; good arm; defense still developing; could also be tried at 3B or OF; average speed; 5-11, 220 pounds

2014: .281/.338/.348 – 7 BB/10 K – 4/7 SB – 135 AB
2015: .243/.332/.341 – 12 BB/21 K – 11/12 SB – 173 AB
2016: .262/.353/.362 – 17 BB/21 K – 1/4 SB – 149 AB

98 – Western Carolina SR C Danny Bermudez: good glove; 5-11, 215 pounds

2014: .305/.443/.381 – 16 BB/28 K – 3/5 SB – 105 AB
2015: .317/.417/.516 – 19 BB/50 K – 3/3 SB – 186 AB
2016: .295/.410/.429 – 33 BB/43 K – 5/7 SB – 217 AB

99 – Oral Roberts rJR C/1B Brent Williams: intriguing bat; average glove; accurate arm; slow; good approach; RHH; FAVORITE; 6-3, 180 pounds

2016: .310/.344/.478 – 13 BB/33 K – 0/0 SB – 203 AB

100 – South Florida SR C/3B Levi Borders: all about those bloodlines; 6-2, 200 pounds

2013: .232/.301/.312 – 10 BB/41 K – 1/3 SB – 138 AB
2014: .243/.341/.317 – 17 BB/41 K – 1/1 SB – 189 AB
2015: .291/.376/.487 – 18 BB/66 K – 4/4 SB – 230 AB
2016: .241/.357/.448 – 6 BB/21 K – 0/0 SB – 58 AB

 

Draft Week

Two huge pet peeves of mine that I see out of Writers on the Internet all the damn time: 1) Teasing future projects over and over again on every social media platform known to man (opposite end of the spectrum, but still incredibly annoying: the endless barrage of ICYMI Tweets that follow even the most mundane of postings), and 2) incessant talk about how much work (“grinding hard tonight,” “another sleepless night,” “finishing this up listening to _____”) went into a given piece. I’ve found draft writers — across all sports — are especially guilty of these things. I’ve tried to be good about not becoming what I hate, but…

I guess I’m (kind of) breaking both of those rules right now. I have some big stuff coming that I’m really excited about. My idea of big may differ from the world’s — if you’ve read my site before, what you’ll soon see will follow a pretty similar pattern to previous iterations of my draft previews…and it’s never exactly lit the world on fire before — but something about this year’s end product excites me in a  new way. I feel better about this year’s coverage, from the start in October right up until what you’ll see Thursday morning, than ever before. I hope it shows. That takes care of the annoying hype part.

Now for the even more annoying hard work boasting. I feel dirty saying it, but here goes: there are a lot of draft writers out there, but I’d be pretty surprised if any one individual put as many hours into their outlet’s draft preview than I have here. Obsessive focus doesn’t make the work good, of course; the level of quality is something that’s always up for debate and ultimately up to each individual reader to determine. Value what is written here or not, I’d like to believe that the work that went into the preview is evident.

If nothing else, I promise to give full refunds to anybody disappointed in the the final result.

Stay tuned for updates throughout the coming days. As I put the finishing touches on everything, you’ll be the first to know. Thanks to all that have read, commented, emailed, and shared stuff written over here over the past eight (!) drafts. Here’s to eight more.

Running 2016 MLB Draft Notes – College Edition

I’m trying something different this year that may or may not work. This is the time of year where things typically get quiet on the site as I work behind the scenes to frantically get everything ready with my final rankings. This year, however, as I update my rankings off the site, I’ll try to add a few words for each team about what I’m seeing as I’m looking at final regular season stats and my most recent scouting notes. This might slow me down too much to make it a viable option once we start getting to the biggest and best conferences, but we’ll try to keep it up as long as possible. I’ll also add some up to the minute rankings updates as we go. For example, my current top prospect at each offensive position is…

Jackson State C Carlos Diaz
Cornell 1B Cole Rutherford
Columbia 2B Will Savage
Nebraska-Omaha 3B Clayton Taylor
Long Beach State SS Garrett Hampson
Nebraska-Omaha OF Cole Gruber
Lehigh OF Jacen Nalesnik
Brown OF Rob Henry

My hunch is that none of these guys will remain in the top spot much longer (some have already been displaced as I’ve gotten lazy in updating the notes portion below), but it’s cool to see them at the top for now. I’ve got the Ivy, Patriot, SWAC, Summit, Horizon, and New York Tech, our lone D1 independent, finalized so far. The Big West was mostly done before I hit a snag that made me hit the pause button. I’m in the middle of the MEAC now. Two plus weeks to go until the draft…better get moving.

Updated to include the Horizon (forget to add those players to the rankings earlier) and MEAC…

Wright State C Sean Murphy
Cornell 1B Cole Rutherford
Columbia 2B Will Savage
Nebraska-Omaha 3B Clayton Taylor
Long Beach State SS Garrett Hampson
Nebraska-Omaha OF Cole Gruber
Florida A&M OF Dylan Dillard
Lehigh OF Jacen Nalesnik

Ohio Valley is now done. There are a lot of teams in that conference. With seven conferences done, here’s a look at the top three (five for OF) for each position…

C – Sean Murphy (Wright State), Tyler Lawrence (Murray State), Carlos Diaz (Jackson State)
1B – Keaton Wright (Southern Illinois Edwardsville), Cole Rutherford (Cornell), Zach Sterry (Oakland)
2B – Will Savage (Columbia), Mike Garzillo (Lehigh), Larry Barraza (Grambling State)
3B – Logan Gray (Austin Peay), Mandy Alvarez (Eastern Kentucky), Clayton Taylor (Nebraska-Omaha)
SS – Garrett Hampson (Long Beach State), Mitch Roman (Wright State), Mike Brosseau (Oakland)
OF – Dan Holst (Southeast Missouri State), Kyle Nowlin (Eastern Kentucky), Cole Gruber (Nebraska-Omaha), Dylan Dillard (Florida A&M), Chase Hamilton (Austin Peay)

Ivy

Brown

I had high hopes for Rob Henry, a FAVORITE, coming into the year, but his draft season has been a bit of a disappointment after his big sophomore campaign. Jake Levine intrigues me now that he’s coming off a second solid season. Austin French looks like one of the best arms the Ivy Leagues has to offer in this draft. Christian Taugner is intriguing as an upper-80s fastball guy who figures to keep getting better as his Tommy John surgery falls further back into his rear view mirror.

Columbia

Hello, Will Savage. His junior season has me going from liking him to loving him. I can’t wait to see how high he gets on the overall second base rankings. Higher here than anywhere else, I’d bet. Nick Maguire could get looks as a big first baseman with obvious power (above-average) and sneaky athleticism. Shane Adams and Robb Paller have hit their way into the draft conversation. George Thanopoulous could get some sinker/slider love.

Cornell

Michael Byrne is wild, but intriguing. Peter Lannoo has better stuff than he’s shown. The odds of Cole Rutherford being drafted by the same team that drafts his little brother are off the board; it would be more than a courtesy pick, as big bro can hit. Tommy Wagner catches my eye as an infielder who makes tons of contact.

Dartmouth

I’m 100% all-in on Duncan Robinson. He’s a big-time talent who seems to get better with every start. Definitely one of this class’s top senior-signs. Joe Purritano slide back just enough in his senior season that I’m now on the fence about him getting drafted or not. Thomas Roulis profiles similarly to Will Savage, but not quite as well.

Harvard

There’s not a lot here to love for 2016. Sean Poppen and Nick Scahill are both fine. Poppen has the more interesting scouting profile while Scahill has the better (yet more limited) peripherals over the years.

Penn

Tim Graul stood out both on the stat page and on the field (saw him close to a dozen times) this spring. Jake Cousins should challenge Duncan Robinson as the top Ivy League pitcher off the board. He’s really good.

Princeton

Cameron Mingo and Keelan Smithers were rotation mainstays for the champion Tigers in 2016, but neither made the necessary step from a draft perspective to earn serious consideration this June. Dan Hoy’s presence adds to the conference’s deepest position at second base.

Yale

Chasen Ford was an arm I had reasonably high hopes for coming into the season, but he’s continued his pattern of having underwhelming periperhals that are incongruent with his solid stuff. Meanwhile Richard Slenker made the leap from steady regular to potential draft pick with a monster junior season.

Patriot

Army

Ben Smith didn’t play in 2016, but he’s done enough offensively and with the glove to warrant some late round draft consideration. Kris Lindner can run some and has shown some on-base skills.

Bucknell

Joe Ogren can hit. Brett Smith can run. Danny Rafferty can throw. And Andrew Andreychik might have enough fastball (upper-80s at present) to make it worth seeing if it’ll play up in the bullpen.

Holy Cross

The Jon Escobar breakthrough has happened. The righthander capable of hitting 96 (90-94 sitting) missed bats (12.11 K/9) and got his control in check (4.50 BB/9, not great but a vast improvement). If it keeps clicking, he’s a big league reliever. Nick Lovullo had an odd season. He only hit .225, but bolstered his OBP with a whopping 40 walks. I’ve always liked his approach, athleticism, and reliable defense up the middle, so I’ll overlook that .225 (and the dismal 6/15 SB success rate) and keep him on my draft board. He’ll make a fine future Red Sox minor leaguer.

Lafayette

Michael Coniglio has no power, but his speed, approach, and CF defense give him enough of a pro skill set to to get a shot in the late rounds. I saw him over one weekend at Penn and came away pleased at his all-around game. David Bednar is a really good looking arm that has the stuff to keep starting in pro ball. Not every team may be sold on his size or delivery as a starter, but he’s got the arm speed, depth of arsenal, and demeanor to stay in the rotation.

Lehigh

We know what Mike Garzillo is by now as a draft prospect: real power, useful speed, a strong arm, and a “grip it and rip it” approach. It’s not my favorite profile, but there’s a place for it in pro ball. If Jacen Nalesnik could catch, he’d be something really worth watching it. As it is, he’s an outfielder with promise all the same. John Scarr can catch and his favorite thing about Lehigh is “definitely the chocolate milk,” so, yeah, you could say I like him. As a staff, the Mountain Hawks walked almost five batters per nine. More like Mountain Walks, am I right? Brandon Kulp could go down as the worst statistical performing pitcher to get drafted this spring. If not him, then maybe Kevin Long.

(Non-draft related, but Mark Washington had a 1.80 ERA despite walking 27 batters [with 24 strikeouts] in 45 innings. College baseball, man.)

Navy

There’s so much to like with this year’s Navy team. Luke Gillingham is the big name as the crafty lefty who has carved up opposing hitters for four straight seasons. When his current year (8.87 K/9 and 1.96 ERA) is seen as a “down season,” in some circles, it says something about his overall track record to date. I think he’s got enough going for him (85-89 FB, low-70s CB that flashes above-average, a much improved CU) that his plus command and deception will keep him pitching professionally for as long as he’d like. Seniors Sam Sorenson and Andrew Bartek have almost as impressive credentials, as do juniors George Coughlin and Kyle Condry. The position players at Navy are no less impressive. Robert Currie has speed, CF range, and a track record of hitting. Sean Trent has a nice power and athleticism blend. Leland Saile has two above-average tools in his power and arm strength. And Adrian Chinnery is an experienced catcher with a mature approach at the plate and a strong defensive reputation. All in all, it’s an excellent group.

SWAC

Alabama A&M

JT O’Reel is interesting as a middle infielder who makes a crazy amount of contact. Ty Russell is a first baseman with reasonable power. Both are 50/50 shots at best to get drafted, but at least that’s something. Same goes for big John Burchell on the mound.

Alabama State

How real is Dillon Cooper’s senior season breakout? Is he an older hitter destroying younger pitching? Or has there been real change in his skill set? That’s something somebody who has seen him play a lot more than I have will have to decide. From the outside looking in, I have no idea what to think. I lean towards the positive, but that could be my desperation to find any worthwhile mid-round bat than anything else. Alabama State has a boatload of pitching talent coming off of big draft seasons. I like Angel Alicea, the athletic two-way guy with a good fastball (90-93) and slider (80-82) combination, best of all. He’s put up some eye-popping (13.99 K/9!) numbers this year. Arguments could be made for Tyler Howe, Joseph Camacho, Hunter McIntosh, and Michael Tellado as the next man up, but I’d put sinker/slider standout Austin Bizzle right behind Alicea on my target list.

Alcorn State

Moses Charles doesn’t have much in the way of pop, but his above-average hands, speed, and approach make him a worthwhile senior-sign. Having a cool name doesn’t hurt either. Walter Vives is a decent catching prospect for a lot of the same reasons.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

A trio of Golden Lion bats have some draft upside (Michael Bradley, Joshua Williams, Jaqueese Moore) for teams willing to roll the dice on hitters who performed well in small samples. Jeremiah Figueroa, the highest upside arm on the staff, didn’t pitch at all in 2016 yet still could hear his name called based on the strength of his mid-90s heater. Anthony Bowmaker stands out as the best of a crowded group of impressive draft-eligible arms who took the mound for the Golden Lions in 2016.

Grambling State

There could be three infielders selected here: 2B/SS Larry Barraza, SS Wesley Drain, and 3B Daniel Barnett. Barraza and Drain were both on the radar heading into the year, but Barnett’s 2016 (408/.504/.647 with 34 BB/17 K) has been a revelation. Tanner Raiburn is a small lefty who has missed lots of bats with solid velocity.

Jackson State

Sam Campbell couldn’t build on a big sophomore season, but scouts who saw him and liked him then might overlook his down draft year. Carlos Diaz, a Miami transfer, has the defensive chops to stay behind the plate and intriguing offensive upside. Cornelius Copeland’s stellar junior season should be enough to get him noticed. Jevon Jacobs was a pre-season FAVORITE who remains one of my guys on the strength of his 88-92 FB, above-average SL, and considerable athleticism. Jamal Wilson can crank it up to the mid-90s. Jesse Anderson has a pro arm, but very inconsistent control.

Mississippi Valley State

Drew Wheeler and Arrington Smith were considered, but I don’t think any Delta Devils will be drafted this year.

Prairie View A&M

Angel Avalos and Shannon Washington appear to have the best shot to get some draft love, but I wouldn’t bet on either guy at this point.

Southern

Jose DeLa Torre is a hitting machine. Dondrayas Harris, Troy Lewis, and J’Markus George all also are in the draft mix.

Texas Southern

Ryan Lazo as a center fielder is interesting to me because of his plus speed (38/38 on steals this year), plus athleticism, and obvious ability to cover a lot of ground very quickly in the outfield. Ryan Lazo as a second baseman, the position where he played in 2016, takes that existing interest up another notch. Javier Valdez, Christopher Scroggins, and Richard Alamo give the lineup a few extra names with viable draft hopes to track. Robert Pearson has some middle relief upside on the mound.

Summit

IPFW

Greg Kaiser is a bat-first middle infielder with power, speed, and a swing if it’s close (or kind of close) approach. Brandon Soat has a chance for three average or better tools with his arm, speed, and raw power. Evan VanSumeren is a natural hitter who makes a lot of contact.

Nebraska-Omaha

There aren’t many senior-signs with the kind of thump that Clayton Taylor provides. The third base prospect can really swing it, but his skills go beyond his above-average raw power. Taylor has hit for three years running, has shown a willingness to wear opposing pitchers out, can play any of the infield positions in a pinch, and can even swipe the stray bag or two on unsuspecting batteries. I’d be rooting for my team to draft Taylor in this class. Cole Gruber will enter pro ball with two clear big league tools with his speed (43/50 SB this year) and CF range. I think he’s a solid mid- to late-round target. Tyler Fox’s decent stuff (85-90 FB, three usable offspeed pitches) could play up enough in shorter bursts professionally to hang around a bit.

North Dakota State

There are a lot of pitchers on this staff with standout peripherals. I think the most interesting of the bunch are Alex Rogers (upper-80s FB that he commands well), Brian VanderWoude (above-average changeup, good size), Parker Trewin (above-average slider, but one of the older players in this draft), and Sean Terres (another good slider).

Oral Roberts

I like this group of Oral Roberts hitters maybe more than I should. Nick Rotola is an intriguing potential utility player with a nice blend of defense, speed, athleticism, and contact skills. I’ve long been fascinated by Brent Williams’s upside as a hitter; his 2016 had good (.310 BA and .478 SLG) and not so good (.344 OBP after just 13 BB/33 K). Rolando Martinez has flashed some pop and on-base skills of his own. Noah Cummings has hit since first arriving on campus. On the pitching side, Kyler Stout stands out for his solid stuff despite a rough 2016 season. I’m also curious about two-way player Holden Cammack.

South Dakota State

Paul Jacobson and Jesse Munsterman are potential late-round senior-signs on the strength of their decent bats and up-the-middle defensive profiles. Andrew Clemen is in the same boat as a righthanded pitcher capable of living 88-92 with a pair of usable secondaries. Ryan Froom and Ethan Kenkel both might have to wait until they are potential senior-signs themselves in 2017, but each guy has shown enough in the way of pro stuff to get some draft attention sooner rather than later.

Western Illinois

Joe Mortillaro throws hard and with sink. Nick Milligan can match his 94 MPH heat. Preston Church does it more with deception and offspeed, but he’s no slouch in the velocity department as a lefty who can run it up to 91. I could see Adam McGinnis and Chris Tschida being handy pros to have around due to the fact both can play multiple spots on the diamond. I think both have more work to do offensively before getting their shot as 2017 senior-signs.

Horizon

Illinois-Chicago

Connor Ryan has more stuff than results. Jake Dahlberg and Trevor Lane both do the effectively wild thing well. I think I like Gabe Dwyer and David Cronin best among the bats, but could see the two redshirt-sophomores staying two more seasons each. Then they’d be the same age as current redshirt-senior and decent draft prospect Conor Philbin.

Northern Kentucky

Not much here. Maybe Logan Spurlin as a late-round catcher. Or Aric Harris as a late-round arm. Late-round is the common factor, I guess.

Oakland

Connor Fannon hasn’t pitched much in three years, but his size and breaking ball make him worth some late round consideration. I’ve long liked the approach of Zach Sterry, a damn good hitter with legitimate average or better raw power. Mike Brousseau has a ton of quality college at bats to his name; he deserves a shot in pro ball. By the way, I don’t believe the Oakland (California) A’s have ever drafted a player from the Oakland (Michigan) Grizzles. Might I suggest a late-round pick on Brousseau in 2016?

Valparaiso

This roster is full of players who are just good enough to get some draft consideration without having any one player anywhere approaching a draft lock. I actually have twelve draft-eligible maybes that I’m going back and forth on including in the final rankings. Dalton Lundeen is probably the best pitching prospect thanks to his size, decent velocity (85-88 as a starter), and long track record of success. I have Luke Syens, an outfielder on the roster who didn’t pitch at all this year, as having a low-90s fastball and average or better breaking ball in my notes. Assuming I didn’t just make that up, he’s pretty interesting if you want to go mega-deep sleeper. Josh Clark or Shea Molitor might be the best hitters, though I guess you could make a case for Jake Hanson if you’re a believer in small sample breakthroughs.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Eric Solberg is talented enough to play pro ball, but it might take another season of proving that at the college level first. Luke Meeteer is no longer afforded that luxury, though it shouldn’t really matter as his speed, pop, and patience all add up to a definite pro for me. Jay Peters and Brian Keller both live in the low-90s and should be drafted in the mid-rounds.

Wright State

I’ll say this about more than a few guys before June 9th, but Sean Murphy will become one of the draft’s best values the moment he falls out of the first round. I think he’s going to be a really good big league starting catcher for a long time. I kept that short and sweet for now because Murphy’s teammate Mitch Roman deserves some attention as well. Roman hasn’t received anywhere close to the same notoriety as potential first round teammate, but he’s still a really damn good draft prospect. He’s a fine hitter with above-average speed and a strong arm. There are some defensive questions that still need answering, but I don’t see why a utility infield floor isn’t within reach. The Wright State staff is chock full of pitchers with pinpoint control. Jesse Scholtens, Robby Sexton, and Jack Van Horn all have BB/9’s between 1.60 and 1.63. All are legit prospects, especially Scholtens and Sexton. I’d also throw undersized sidearming lefthander EJ Trapino as a potential late-round draft sleeper. Derek Hendrixson combines both traits – undersized with impeccable control – and could hear his name called even after missing the entirety of the past season.

Youngstown State

I don’t have a great feel for which Penguin(s) are on the draft radar, so put me down for Kevin Yarabinec as being the most likely to be selected. He’s got big league reliever stuff, but not the kind of track record of a typical draft pick. A team that buys Andrew Kendrick’s power could take a shot on him, but with two years of eligibility remaining he seems like a safe bet to stick around campus.

Independent

New York Tech

Joe Daru has hit for a fascinating blend of power and speed this year. The approach isn’t where you want it to be, but when talking late-round possibilities you can’t have it all. Louis Mele has the longer track record of hitting for power and a slightly more agreeable approach, but nowhere near the same speed. Both are definite maybes late in the draft.

Big West

Cal Poly

Justin Calomeni has a chance to be one of the fastest movers in this class. Slater Lee is probably a better 2017 senior-sign candidate than a real 2016 draft threat, but it could happen. Brett Barbier has some defensive questions to answer, but the bat looks good enough to give him a go in the pro game.

Cal State Fullerton

There are a ton of quality arms here worth watching on draft day: Chad Hockin, Miles Chambers, Blake Quinn, Henry Omaña, Dylan Prohoroff, Scott Serigstad, and Maxwell Gibbs. Offensively names like Josh Vargas, Timmy Richards, Tanner Pinkston, and Dalton Blaser stand out as the best of the bunch.

Cal State Northridge

Yusuke Akitoshi and Branden Berry both look like solid organizational guys who might just give you a bit more than that. Like Fullerton, there are a ton of pitchers here that should be on boards around the league. Conner O’Neil and Kenny Rosenberg are the best of the bunch. I’m finally ready to quit Spencer O’Neil.

Hawaii

I don’t want to talk about it. Josh Rojas was a disaster. Marcus Doi was a disaster. Josh Pigg was a disaster. At least Jacob Sheldon-Collins and Brendan Hornung held up their end of the bargain. Matt Valencia was the definition of effectively wild in 2016: 10.43 K/9  and 5.79 BB/9 in 23.1 IP led to a 0.39 ERA.

Long Beach State

The obvious headliner here is Garrett Hampson, a slick fielding middle infielder with averages (give or take) dotting his scouting card in all areas except power. If you really believe in him, there could be enough here for a decent regular. Even if you don’t, then a potential utility future seems like a relatively safe bet. Fellow infielder Zach Domingues has long been a FAVORITE for his outstanding approach, but even I have to finally admit that the power deficiency is going to be too much for him overcome as a prospect. College guys who walk twice as much as whiff will always hold a special place in my heart, dimmed pro future or not. Eric Hutting came close to getting a spot in the rankings based on his defense, but the bat just isn’t enough. Austin McGeorge is one of the better arms that nobody seems to be talking about. He’s got enough stuff – not great, but enough at 88-92 with an average or better low-80s slider – that a team that emphasizes performance (13.89 K/9) should take him sooner than the majority might expect. Josh Advocate, Kyle Brown, and Ty Provencher all could have done enough themselves to get drafted. Lucas Jacobsen is a new name for me, but he’s a lefthander with size who missed bats. I’m intrigued. Keep in mind that Long Beach’s home park plays huge; their pitchers may not be quite what they seem and their hitters could have a little more upside than they’ve shown.

UC Davis

There are a few names worth some draft consideration on the UC Davis roster – I have five if we’re being precise – but I think Cameron Olson is probably the most appealing. His power and arm give him two big league tools, but his defense and approach at the plate remain rough around the edges. I think it’s an overall package worth spending a pick on, but mid-round college catchers tend to get picked largely on the strength of their defense, an area that remains a work in progress for Olson. We’ll see.

UC Irvine

There’s not a ton here to love, but…I just realized that the Big West season has another weekend to go. Figured that they’d wrap up the same time as the other conferences even without a tournament of their own, but was very wrong. I’m pausing on this conference for now, though I think all of the notes from above still stand. I just don’t want to have to look up stats for all these teams again after they wrap up regular season play in a few days. We’ll come back to this in about a week.

UC Riverside

UC Santa Barbara

MEAC

Bethune-Cookman

I liked Demetrius Sims coming into the year. Still do, but now it might be best for him to remain in school for at least another season to further refine his approach at the plate. Nathan Bond is a fun potential senior-sign who has shown consistent on-base skills over the years. Clay Middleton is a steady defender behind the plate and a useful contributor at it; in a class awash with college catching, I think he fits in the mid-rounds for a team willing to do a deep dive into the MEAC. Same goes for Michael Cruz, certified hitting machine. Cruz hit at on in junior college and really didn’t miss a beat in his first year for the Wildcats. I’m very intrigued. Alex Seibold and Zach Olszewski both hit the low-90s with nice breaking balls, so projecting some middle relief on their futures isn’t out of line. German Hernandez won’t blow it by anybody, but he’s got some sinker/slider appeal.

Coppin State

Any opportunity I can get to tout the merits of a player named George Dragon, I’m taking it. It’s a tough profile as a first baseman/corner outfielder (maybe), but who am I to doubt a Dragon? Never seen a minute of Game of Thrones, by the way. John Kraft slugged .741 this year. He went from .383 as a sophomore to .328 as a junior to .741. Good luck with that evaluation, scouts.

Delaware State

Jaylen Zielecki has some interesting tools to work with (arm, speed, athleticism), but is probably a year away with the bat. Cameron Onderko was a preseason sleeper that never really woke up. I like OF/RHP Chris Gonzalez, a former Delaware State standout who hit pretty well at Mercyhurst after transferring this past year. Figured I’d give him a mention here since my forthcoming Mercyhurst section might get overlooked otherwise.

Florida A&M

I’m a big fan of this roster. Jacky Miles gives the draft yet another viable mid- to late-round college catcher who can stick at the position and give you a little something offensively. Marlon Gibbs is a great athlete with tons of bat speed. Dylan Dillard is a well-rounded corner outfielder with some thump. Undersized second baseman Alec Wong has always had a mature approach and steady glove, but added an extra layer of senior season pop this year. There are a ton of interesting arms, but no slam dunk draft picks. I like JoJo Durden best since he’s got the crafty level thing down pat. I really wanted to tout Brandon Fleming and his upper-70s submarined fastball and Frisbee sliders, but his senior season didn’t quite go as planned. Still a fun college story, so at least there’s that.

Maryland-Eastern Shore

Nobody jumps off the page, but Mike Escanilla could get a late look as a dependable defensive middle infielder with a little bit of bat and speed.

Norfolk State

Robbie Hiser didn’t pitch in 2016, but he still might be the Spartans best prospect. Guys with low-90s fastballs tend to be remembered even when they aren’t actually on the mound consistently. Devin Hemmerich is his top challenger as an upper-80s lefty coming off three stellar seasons. Denathan Dukes is the most intriguing position player prospect.

North Carolina A&T

I have Timothy Ravare, Danny Garrett, and Robert Peck listed as the maybes from the team that inspired this line from an email from me: “Just wrote up a prospect for a 13-41 North Carolina A&T team with a 7.26 ERA. Notable because that ERA led the team.” Rough year for the Aggies.

North Carolina Central

Andrew Vernon is legit. Good fastball, good slider, and great results. Love him as a mid- to late-round reliever. Alex Dandridge isn’t half-bad, either. James Dey was one of college ball’s most effective yet overlooked two-way performers. He’s a viable prospect as either a catcher or a righthanded reliever. Carlos Ortiz is probably the team’s best hitting prospect, but I’m partial to Ellington Hopkins, a 5-6, 175 pound do-everything utility guy. I’m already putting him down as one of my favorite players in college ball for 2017.

Savannah State

Charles Sikes can hit some. His power has gone backwards each year since 2014, but he’s still a draft possibility in this class devoid of big-time bats.

Ohio Valley

Austin Peay

Bats everywhere. I love this team. Logan Gray’s approach never took the step forward I was hoping to see (his sophomore to junior numbers are eerily similar), but he’s still so tooled up otherwise that he’s more than justified being a long-time FAVORITE. This class is dying for real third base prospects, so a raw yet highly athletic guy like Gray is very much welcomed. I like Ridge Smith a lot as a potential Swiss Army knife do-everything defensive prospect at the next level. He can catch, play first and third, and even hang in the outfield. Dre Gleason has loads of power and strength, two things lacking in this class. Garrett Copeland is one of the best second base prospects in the country that nobody talks about. He’s got nice speed, pop, and a sound approach at the plate. Cayce Bredlau (limited at bats in 2016) and Chase Hamilton both have shown enough athletically and over the years to warrant some draft consideration. Alex Robles is an underrated two-way player who is good enough to either play third or pitch at the next level. Jared Carkuff definitely has the stuff (90-94 FB, above-average 82-84 SL) to make some noise in the pros. I’m glad I gave myself unofficial space limits on this whole exercise because I could have gone on even longer about the prospects on this team.

Belmont

The top two hitters here slid back a bit in 2016, but still should get drafted based on their tools and overall track record. Tyler Walsh can really run and defend up the middle, but he’s a long lever kind of hitter prone to swinging and missing. If a team thinks they can tweak his hitting mechanics some, he could be a “where did this guy come from?” player in the pros. Tyler Fullerton has similar pop and a similarly inconsistent approach at the plate. I’m intrigued by Brennan Washington as a big arm/big power late-round gamble. Aaron Quillen has now had two years of excellent peripherals and solid stuff (88-92 FB) to go with it.

Eastern Illinois

Matt Wivinis headlines this squad. Armed with a solid sinker (88-92, 93 peak), a slider that flashes above-average, and a fastball he’s shown some ability to cut, he could be one of those late-round relief prospects who moves slowly and steadily up the pro ladder. I thought Demetre Taylor was primed for a monster final college season, but the powerful outfielder was more good than great. Still think there’s a home for him late in the draft somewhere.

Eastern Kentucky

Kyle Nowlin, Mandy Alvarez, and Doug Teegarden are three of the best senior-signs at their respective positions in the country. I’m fascinated to see how Nowlin’s high BB% and K% will translate to pro ball; maybe it’s a cop-out, but I think he’s either going to be a really good player or a total washout with little middle ground. Alvarez does so much well at the plate that I think he’ll make whatever team is willing to bet on his defense remaining solid at the hot corner very happy. Teegarden isn’t normally mentioned in the same breath as the other two, but as a reliable middle infielder with some pop and an approach that should translate well to pro ball, he’s a good one. Alex Hamilton is the best junior prospect on the team. He’s been hit around the past two years, but has kept his peripherals solid and flashed some nice stuff (88-91 FB, above-average SL) from the left side.

Jacksonville State

There are some interesting hitters here for teams that weigh performance heavily. I still favor Paschal Petrongolo due to his power, strength, and name. Gavin Golsan’s best running abilities could get him on the radar. Justin Hoyt has been the definition of effectively wild these past two years. His most recent year: 11.67 K/9, 5.00 BB/9, 1.00 ERA. Nate Sylvester loves whole numbers: 9.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, and 3.00 ERA in 39.0 innings.

Morehead State

Jimmy Wright had a small sample breakout in 2016. Alex Stephens is a good athlete with some bat speed at third base. Ryan Kent is a well-rounded outfielder with a solid approach. Those guys are the undercard for the impressive collection of pitching assembled at Morehead State. Matt Anderson is a favorite that proved this year he’s ready for pro ball. With a solid fastball (88-92, 94 peak), plus change, and an average or better breaking ball, I think he can keep starting in the pros. He’s one of the best senior-sign out there from both a stuff and performance perspective. Tyler Keele has a well above-average fastball (87-94, 95 peak) that grades higher than the velocity might suggest thanks to the movement he gets on it. With two interesting yet inconsistent offspeed pitches, there’s hope he can make his way to a big league bullpen one day. Patrick McGuff and Craig Pearcy have also flashed pro stuff in the past.

Murray State

Tyler Lawrence gets lost in the overwhelming amount of college catching in this class, but the ability is there for him to be a productive big league player for a long time. I buy the bat in a big way and think he has some sneaky potential star upside. Adam Bauer is an intriguing blend of power, approach, and steady, and at 6-4, 190 pounds he has the body to dream on. Brandon Gutzler has my attention as a small sample size superstar: .385/.474/.723 with 8 BB/9 K in just 65 AB makes him one of the draft’s low-key mystery men for teams that weigh performance heavily. Andrew Bramley has a good arm and stuff that can help him miss a lot of bats (12.70 K/9 this past year), but is crazy wild. If you think it can be fixed, then he’s on the board as a mid-round potential reliever. I have no notes on Tyler Anderson or Ryan Dills, but both young men have eye-popping peripherals. Good enough for an internet hack like me!

Southern Illinois Edwardsville

I love Keaton Wright. Nobody is talking about him because nobody (with very few exceptions) talks about players outside of the first hundred or so best prospects in the draft (not to mention that not many spend much time on Southern Illinois Edwardsville), but they should be. He’s on my current short list of best college first base prospects in this entire class. If there’s a mid- to late-round college first baseman that shocks everybody years down the line with how he lasted that long in the draft, he’ll be it. Admittedly the chances of this are low – we’re all looking for the next Paul Goldschmidt, but that might have been a once in a lifetime find – though that’s not a reason to quit looking. PJ Schuster, Connor Buenger, and Jarrett Bednar all have quality stuff, but all had curiously terrible draft years.

Southeast Missouri State

Of the many interesting bats on the Redhawks roster, three stand out to me. Dan Holst is the best all-around talent with plus speed, an average or better hit tool, some real pop, and just enough range in center to profile as a viable defender in all three outfield spots. His arm might be a little light for right, but that’s getting down to nit-picking territory. He’s a really good player. Garrett Gandolfo also jumped off the page for me. He’s crushed the ball in back-to-back seasons. Then there’s Chris Osborne. I don’t know what kind of pro Osborne will be (or if he’ll be one at all), but I can’t not mention a player who slugged .803 this past year. Of the six pitchers I have in my draft pile, I like Joey Lucchesi best. Big lefthanders with low-90s fastballs, deceptive deliveries, and senior years when they strike out over 13 batters per nine are easy to like. Clay Chandler, Robert Beltran, and Justin Murphy are all also worthy of a draft pick this year.

Tennessee Tech

Tennessee transfer Jake Rowland seemed primed for a big draft year, but never got the chance to get things going. That may have opened the door for another Jake (Farr) to overtake him as the team’s best position player prospect. The best prospect overall is probably one of Trevor Maloney or Jake Usher. Usher’s edge in control gives him the advantage, but it’s close.

Tennessee-Martin

Collin Edwards was a pre-season FAVORITE, but the redshirt-sophomore will likely have to wait another year or two to hear his name called.

Northeast

Bryant

I’m sure I’ve said it about three teams already, but this right here is my favorite roster so far. Matt Albanese has average or better big league regular upside and should be in the conversation with the second tier of college outfielders with a chance to sneak into the draft’s top two or three rounds. Cole Fabio is a FAVORITE who ranks as one of the better second base prospects in the class. Robby Rinn is a dependable bat with lots of the strength and power. I really like how he’s continuously found ways to get better as a player over the years. Dan Cellucci, Buck McCarthy, and AJ Zarozny are all reliable up-the-middle defenders who can give you a little something extra with the bat. Brandon Bingel has to be on the short list of any best two-way college player ranking. And even Zach Wood, a player not on my radar coming into the year, has found a way to do enough with the bat to give him at least a shot at a late-round selection. For those of you not counting along at home, that’s eight hitters with a chance to be drafted off the 2016 Bryant Bulldogs squad. Impressive stuff. On the pitching side, unless you really like James Davitt and his mid-80s heat and average or better changeup, I’d recommend waiting a year for future first round pick James Karinchak.

Central Connecticut State

We needed another good defensive catcher with a strong class in this college class, right? And another plus athlete with serious wheels in the outfield? Need another one of those too. The Blue Devils best two hitting prospects, Connor Fitzsimmons and Franklin Jennings, both fit the mold of what we’ve come to expect as this draft’s biggest strengths.

Fairleigh Dickinson

Logan Frati is a good enough arm to get drafted and hang around in pro ball for a few years. John Giakas had some sterling stats in his senior season swan song. Ryan Brennan has a cannon for an arm – he doubled as the team’s closer – and some interesting offensive skills. Matt McCann is an up-the-middle glove who makes a lot of contact and has a solid approach.

Long Island-Brooklyn

There are a lot of pitchers on this roster with enough stuff for the pros, but none that have put up the kind of numbers we’ve come to expect with a potential draft pick. By virtue of not pitching much (1.1 inning) in 2016, I guess Bobby Maxwell is the best of the lot. There are some bats worth considering late, most notably Tommy Jakubowski and Brian Lamboy. The latter appeals to me as any hitter who has pulled off a 54 BB/18 K ratio over his final two college seasons might.

Mount St. Mary’s

Not a ton here. I’d be stunned if they had anybody drafted this year, but Chad Diehl, Ryan Owens, or Tyler Post stand the best chance.

Sacred Heart

I really liked Zack Short coming into the year. I still like him, but selling a team on him would be a tougher task now that he’s coming off the worst of his three college seasons to date. It wasn’t a bad year, but just not his best work. I believe in him defensively being able to stick at shortstop and think there’s a chance his all-around offensive game is enough to potentially make him a regular. As promising as that is, Jason Foley tops him as the team’s best current prospect. His split-change is one of the better pitches in the class. Armed with that pitch, a solid fastball (88-93), and an average or better upper-70s curve, Foley could be a back of the rotation starter or late inning reliever.

Wagner

Austin Goeke and Mike Adams are both good arms that could do good things in pro ball. Goeke has the better size (6-5, 200), better offspeed pitch (above-average change), and better recent run of success (7.49 K/9 in 2016). Adams has a bit more present velocity. Offensively, Nick Mascelli and Ben Ruta have some utility player upside.

MAAC

Canisius

Jake Lumley and Anthony Massicci give this team a pair of middle infield prospects worth drafting. Iannick Remillard is a strong senior-sign candidate on the strength of a fastball that lives between 88-93 and a pair of worthwhile offspeed pitches (slider and split-change).

Fairfield

I don’t have any draft-worthy arms here for 2016, but there are a handful (up to five) of hitting prospects that could slip into the very late rounds. Among them I like Jake Salpietro best, though I’d be surprised if any Stags are drafted this year.

Iona

I have Matt Byrne and Alex Fishberg both down as possible picks, but both are pretty extreme long shots.

Manhattan

Joey Rocchietti and Matt Simonetti have pro stuff, but down draft years (the former’s peripherals were merely decent and the latter didn’t pitch) might necessitate a return engagement in 2017. Shawn Kanwisher, a guy I know next to nothing about otherwise, has such a good looking 2016 (10.47 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 2.57 ERA in 49.0 IP) that a team that knows more (and likes more) about him than just his stat line could be interested on draft day. I personally remain interested in Jose Carrera, the tiny potential utility infielder with above-average speed and more arm strength and pop than his 5-6, 145 pound frame suggests. Senior-sign first baseman/outfielder Christian Santisteban is one of my favorite late-round hitting targets.

Marist

Scott Boches, Graham McIntire, and Joey Aiola all have a shot to be drafted. All have their ups and downs as prospects. Boches has size (6-6, 200) and a good fastball (low-90s), but an inconsistent track record. McIntire is a good runner with questionable power. Aiola is a steady glove with speed and a patient approach, but is likely locked into second base.

Monmouth

Shaine Hughes is my kind of hitter. I don’t know how signable he’ll be as a redshirt-sophomore, but he’ll be higher on my board than anywhere else. I also like a lot of the hitters on this roster. Anthony Ciavarella, Frank Trimarco, and Ricky Dennis all have pro stuff. Ciavarella and Trimarco are both lefties with good offspeed pitches (CB for former, CU for latter), and Dennis has solid heat (87-90), good control, and intriguing size (6-8, 220).

Niagara

Hard to find a Purple Eagle with a realistic draft hope this year, though Michael Fuhrman’s power gives him an outside chance. Cody Eckerson is an undersized redshirt-sophomore lefty who pitched well enough this year to maybe get a little love from a numbers-inclined team.

Quinnipiac

Rapid fire takes on a deceptively loaded Bobcats roster. Joseph Burns, a St. John’s transfer, is a smart hitter with a big-time arm at third. Mike Palladino is an athletic center fielder with speed who has never been able to put it all together as a hitter. Lou Iannotti runs well – and not just for a catcher – and is a standout defender behind the dish. Matt Batten is another really good glove at either short or second with solid speed and a good approach. Rob Pescitelli has intriguing size and has hit consistently well over the years. Alex Vargas is a confusing prospect: mid-90s heat, small stature (5-11, 190), and wild as it gets (13.34 BB/9). Thomas Jankins doesn’t have that velocity (he’s 88-90), but the confidence he has in his three offspeed pitches makes him a damn fine mid-round prospect. Greg Egan, Justin Thomas, and Matthew Osieja all do just enough well to stay on the draft radar.

Rider

It’s all about Vincenzo Aiello for Rider. Now necessarily because he’s a sure-fire draft prospect – he isn’t, but his three-pitch mix (88-92 FB, 74-78 breaking ball, CU) and size make him interesting enough – but because it’s a relatively thin year for the Broncs.

Siena

Kyano Cummings intrigues me as a lefty with a plus splitter. Chris Amorosi has an above-average changeup. Bryan Goossens has flashed better stuff (88-92, 94 peak) than his results have shown. Fred Smart and Ryne Martinez are hitters with some promise, though Martinez’s 2016 left a great deal to be desired. I think the best guy here is Dan Swain, a really underrated outfielder with athleticism, speed, and considerable pop.

St. Peter’s

There’s probably not a draft-worthy player here. Rob Moore hit really well, so he’s got an outside shot. Jon Kristoffersen is a sure-handed shortstop with some offensive upside.

The 2016 MLB Draft’s Hardest Throwers…and GB%

We’ll get to the first part of the title shortly, but before that lets look at our final regular season GB% update for some of the nation’s top college pitchers…

Virginia RHP Connor Jones – 68.90%
Florida LHP AJ Puk – 39.02%
Oklahoma RHP Alec Hansen – 43.90%
Mississippi State RHP Dakota Hudson – 68.57%
Cal RHP Daulton Jefferies – 52.63%
Florida RHP Logan Shore – 51.22%
Winthrop LHP Matt Crohan – 34.48%
Kent State LHP Eric Lauer – 46.62%
Vanderbilt RHP Jordan Sheffield – 49.37%
Connecticut LHP Anthony Kay – 50.00%
Rice RHP Jon Duplantier – 62.25%
Pittsburgh RHP TJ Zeuch – 73.48%

New Orleans RHP Shawn Semple – 46.32%

Pretty neat that Kay landed at exactly 50/50. Jones, Hudson, and Zeuch kept up their end of the bargain as some of the draft’s top ground ball inducing pitcher. All three have stuff that certainly matches the stats. Puk’s high FB% continues to stick out as something of a red flag. That might not be fair as a low GB% doesn’t disqualify a pitcher from being effective, so let’s call it a yellow flag for now.

Now we get to the good stuff. Prompted by a question on Twitter, I took a look at all of the players in my notes to try to find some of the draft’s hardest throwers. The process of tracking these guys down was very unscientific, so the high possibility that I’m missing some obvious names exists. I did the best I could with what I had. In all honesty, the little project came out better than I had hoped. Yell at me in the comments, Twitter, or via email if I forgot anybody…

100

Zack Burdi: 96-100, 101
Robert Tyler: 92-98, 99-100
Alec Hansen: 90-96 FB, 98 (101 last year)
Reagan Bazaar: 90-96, 98-100

These guys all throw very hard. Tyler has maintained it as a starter, Hansen has done the same (but less often), and Burdi’s potential conversation (and how his velocity would play in the rotation) is a constant conversation among those in the industry. Bazaar is the wild card here, though I guess you could say the same about Hansen.

99

AJ Puk: 90-96, 98-99
Jordan Sheffield: 90-96, 98-99
Mark Ecker: 90-96, 98-99
Ian Hamilton: 90-94 (starter), 94-99 (relief)

Every time I start to count Puk out as a potential top of the rotation arm, that velocity from the left side sucks me back in. I’m still very likely going to be the low man on him — sticking with the Andrew Miller comp for now — but I can see the appeal of 99 like anybody else.

98

Dakota Hudson: 90-96, 98
John Pomeroy: 87-94, 96-98
Andrew Dunlap: 94-95, 97-98
Lucas Erceg: 92-96, 98
Mitch Sewald: 92-96, 98
Jon Duplantier: 87-95, 98
Matthias Dietz: 90-95 (starter), 94-98 (relief)

Erceg is a third baseman first and foremost, but that velocity on the mound gives him a nice safety net if the whole hitting thing doesn’t work out. My information on Pomeroy, Dunlap, and Sewald might be a little dated by now, so publishing those numbers makes me a little nervous. At one point or another they did hit those heights. I’m at least confident in that much.

97

Justin Dunn: 90-94, 96-97
Ryan Hendrix: 88-94, 96-97
Bailey Clark: 90-94, 96
Kyle Funkhouser: 87-93, 95-96
Kyle Cody: 90-94, 96

I don’t have any 98’s on the last three names in this group in 2016 (Dunn and Hendrix have both done it out of the pen), but all did it last year and all could do it again. The likelihood of Clark doing it is greatest out of the three, I think.

Bryan Garcia: 88-94, 96-97
TJ Zeuch: 88-94, 96-97
Devin Over: 90-96, 97
Jesse Stallings: 88-94, 96-97
Kyle Serrano: 90-95, 96-97
Matt Vogel: 90-95, 96-97
Braden Webb: 89-95, 96-97
Chad Smith: 90-95, 97
Zac Houston: 85-92, 95-97
Chandler Eden: 90-95, 97
Daulton Jefferies: 88-92 (90-95, 97 in past)
Chris Viall: 89-95, 96-97
Cody Sedlock: 88-94, 96-97
Jared Price: 87-95, 97
Shea Murray: 94-97
Justin Calomeni: 88-94, 97
Dylan Prohoroff: 90-94, 97
Connor Williams: 92-95, 97
Michael Silva: 90-94, 96-97
Michael Fain: 88-94, 96-97
Joel Kuhnel: 90-95, 97
Bryan Baker: 88-93, 95-97
Matt Crohan: 87-94, 96-97 (90-94 last summer)
Junior Harding: 92-95, 97
Hunter Kiel: 90-96, 97

A lot of guys have hit 97 in my notes. Serrano has missed this season, but remains an interesting potential gamble for a team with a little extra cash past the first few rounds. I forgot how drastic Jefferies’s velocity drop has been this year, but if he can get 100% healthy again, then I don’t see why he can’t return to the mid-90s. Same with Crohan, another injured arm that has been inconsistent with his peak velocities. There are a ton of current and future relievers here.

97+

Riley Pint: 91-96, 100-102 (99 high this year)
Matt Manning: 90-96, 98-99
Alex Speas: 88-94, 96-98
Greg Veliz: 90-96, 98
Jared Horn: 89-95, 97-98
Graham Ashcraft: 88-96, 97-98
Jay Groome: 87-94, 97
Forrest Whitley: 88-94, 96-97
Jesus Luzardo: 87-95, 97

Very interesting group. Pint’s 100+ readings were all before this spring season; the highest I’ve seen a credible source on him the last few months is 99. That still would tie him with Manning for hardest thrower in the prep class. Speas and Horn both have electric arms that could still gain a tick or two as they fill out (Speas) or refine their mechanics (both, but mostly Horn). Luzardo is another injured pitcher who could be a great overslot get for a clever team past the few couple of rounds.

My quick and possibly incorrect counting totaled 56 pitchers in this class (in my even quicker search of my notes) that can hit 97 MPH or higher.

96

Ian Anderson
Austin Bergner
Anthony Molina
Jeff Belge
Reggie Lawson
Anthony Locey
Joey Wentz
Zach Hess
Dalton Feeney
Andrew Schultz
Brenden Heiss
Bryse Wilson
Nicolas Hanson
Nolan Martinez
Braeden Ogle

All of these guys are serious prospects. All have reached at least 96 MPH. Not bad. And because I got curious, here are the college guys that have reached 96 as well…

Clate Schmidt
AJ Bogucki
Zac Gallen
Ryder Ryan
Kyle Smith
Connor Jones
Wil Crowe
Shaun Anderson
Dane Dunning
Zack Brown
Zach Jackson
Sean Rackoski
Conor Costello
Thomas Hatch
Mitchell Traver
Ryan Moseley
Cal Quantrill
Max Knutson
Chad Hockin
Michael Rucker
Vince Arobio
AJ Puckett
Steven Wilson
Nick Hartman
Jacob DeVries
Griffin Jax
Mark Nowaczewski
Joe Galindo
Brett DeGagne’
Matt Gorgolinski
Bryce Welborn
Stephen Woods
Chris Hall
Andre Scrubb
Jared Brasher
Jon Escobar
Jamal Wilson
Robert Pearson
Gabe Gonzalez
Justin Alleman
Trey Cobb
Brian Trieglaff
Dan Jagiello

That’s 58 more total arms that have hit at least 96 MPH. So in just about two weeks, professional baseball could add 114 (give or take a dozen here or there) new pitchers capable of hitting the mid- to upper-90s. Good luck, hitters.

2016 MLB Draft – High School Outfielders

I don’t have a particularly compelling angle for how to discuss this year’s group of high school outfielders, so I’ll throw a few different ideas out to see what sticks. Hey, I suppose that’s an angle in and of itself. Love it when things work out like that.

Our first attempted angle focuses on the consensus top two high school outfielders in this class. There are some shades of the Austin Meadows/Clint Frazier dynamic from a few years back with Mickey Moniak and Blake Rutherford battling back and forth at the top this year (bonus points for close geographic proximity between the two prospects in each draft), but neither player fits the mold well enough to push the comp much further than that. Of course, as always, it turns out I’m plagiarizing myself here after writing this back in December

In 2013, we had Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier battle down to the wire to see which prep outfielder from the state of Georgia would wind up the first off the board. In 2016, we’re set to have Mickey Moniak and Blake Rutherford, both from California, go back and forth until June to see who goes higher. Forced narrative or something more? I’m inclined to say it’s more than former than the latter –considering it’s a narrative I personally made up mere minutes ago, that should make some sense – but suggesting that the two head-to-head battles run parallel in some ways isn’t crazy. Despite some internet comparisons that paint him as the Meadows, I think the better proxy for Rutherford is Frazier. Issues with handedness, height, and hair hue aside, Frazier as a starting point for Rutherford (offensively only as Frazier’s arm strength blows the average-ish arm of Rutherford away) can be used because the two both have really good looking well-balanced swings, tons of bat speed, and significant raw power. The parallel gets a little bit of extra juice when you consider Frazier and Rutherford were/are also both a little bit older than their draft counterparts.

The extra bit of youth isn’t what gives Moniak the edge for me, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. What separates Moniak at this present moment is his ability to hit the ball hard everywhere. Sometimes simplistic analysis works. The manner in which Moniak sprays line drives and deep flies to all fields resembles something a ten-year veteran who flirts with batting titles season after season does during BP. Trading off a little bit of Rutherford’s power for Moniak’s hit tool and approach (both in his mindfulness as a hitter and his plate discipline) are worth it for me. Of course, check back with me in a few months…I had Meadows ahead of Frazier for a long time before giving in to the latter’s arm, power, and approach (as a whole-fields power hitter, not necessarily as an OBP machine). History may yet repeat itself, but I’ll take Moniak for now.

I seriously thought the Meadows/Frazier comparison was an original thought, and only realized it wasn’t when I went back to my site to look up what I had written about Meadows back in 2013. Then the post with that excerpt popped up and I realized that thinking about baseball draft prospects as much as I do is driving me slowly insane. People don’t believe me when I say that I forget everything I’ve written as soon as I hit “Publish,” but it’s true. I have no memory of what I write. Drugs, alcohol, marriage? Nope, it’s been baseball that has ruined my brain. Definitely worth it.

Anyway, if we want to keep trying to force a “ghost of draft year’s past” narrative on this year’s group of high school outfielders, then we can add Billy McKinney as the Alex Kirilloff doppelganger and get a little closer to that 2013 trio at the top. I mean, it’s still not great but it is closer, right? Last year’s trio of Kyle Tucker (Rutherford), Nick Plummer (Kirilloff), and Trenton Clark (Mickey Moniak) kind of works, but there are problems with each attempted head-to-head comparison; Moniak as Clark has been mentioned elsewhere (ESPN, I believe) and that’s a good one, Kirilloff as Plummer is problematic in multiple ways, and Rutherford as Tucker just plain doesn’t work. A fun trio that matches up well (kind of) comes if we’re cool with going back to 2011: Bubba Starling (Rutherford), Brandon Nimmo (Moniak), and Josh Bell (Kirilloff). We’ve got the tooled-up overaged guy, the plus approach with a sweet swing guy, and the big strong corner outfielder/first baseman defensive tweener best known for his bat…guy. I suppose that’s the worst case scenario for almost all the 2016 prospects, but there are notable differences for each. Rutherford doesn’t share Starling’s rawness in any way, Moniak has a ton more experience (and scout exposure) than Nimmo against high-level pitching, and Kirilloff and Bell…well, they are actually kind of similar in a lot of ways. Actually, the Moniak and Nimmo parallels aren’t too far off besides the level of competition discrepancy. Check Baseball America’s pre-draft notes on Nimmo…

He’s an above-average runner when he’s healthy, which helps him on the basepaths and in center field, and there’s more to his game than just speed. Nimmo has a pretty, efficient lefthanded swing. He’s short to the ball and has outstanding barrel awareness, consistently squaring balls up and shooting line drives to all fields. He has a good eye at the plate and should be an above-average hitter. As he gets stronger, he could add loft to his swing to turn doubles into home runs.

I still believe in Nimmo as being a useful big league player, but perhaps the scouting profile similarities between the two ought to serve as a little bit of a warning for those already all-in on Moniak. Same could be said for the Starling/Rutherford tie-in, though that’s significantly less worrisome because of the latter being far more of a ballplayer than the former ever was; Starling’s issues weren’t simply because he was older for his class but rather because he was older and underdeveloped from a skills standpoint. Making up for lost time while learning the finer points of the game is hard work, but Rutherford’s actual on-field abilities should make the curve much shorter than Starling’s.

(Incidentally, I learned that we’re taken what a steep learning curve should be and flipped it to mean the opposite of the original intent. We talk about steep learning curves as if they note a difficult initial learning process, but a steep increase translates to a quick increment of skill. Wikipedia notes that the error is likely because of how we’ve taken to interpret the idea as climbing a hill. Climbing a steep hill is more difficult than attempting the same on a less steep version, so we assume a steep learning curve means learning something new will be tricky. Maybe this is all common knowledge, but I’ve been using steep learning curve wrong my whole life. If you’re like me, then you can at least walk away from this post learning something new…even if you think all my baseball takes are nonsense.)

Or maybe all of these forced comps are no more than false flags since, you know, comparing distinct individuals to other distinct individuals may not always tell us what we think (hope?) it does. I do, however, think there’s something to identifying players with similar physical traits, skills, and tools, and analyzing their respective career paths, at least on a very general, very preliminary level. I think we can all (mostly) agree that certain player types seem to succeed while others don’t, so there’s value in using historical data to see what has worked and what hasn’t. Besides Trenton Clark, Moniak has also been compared to Christian Yelich (source: everybody) and Steve Finley (Baseball America); I see a little Adam Eaton in his game, but Moniak is far more physical (bigger, too) at the same stage. One other recent draft name that reminded me of Moniak was this guy

He tied Hinch’s USA Baseball record by playing on his sixth national team, and scouts love his grinder approach and in-game savvy. What’s more, Almora has outstanding tools. The Miami signee, in one scout’s words, “has no issues. He’s got above-average tools everywhere, and they all play. He has tools and he uses them.” He doesn’t turn in blazing times when he runs in showcases (generally he’s a 6.8-second runner in the 60), but his game instincts help him steal bases and cover plenty of ground in center field. Scouts consider his defense major league-ready right now, with plus grades for his accurate throwing arm. With natural hitting rhythm and plenty of bat speed, [he] is a line-drive machine with a loose swing who stays inside the ball, relishes velocity and handles spin. He should have 20-homer power down the line, sufficient if he slows down and can’t play center, and a definite bonus if (as expected) he stays in the middle garden. He plays the game with both ease and energy and may have some projection left in his athletic 6-foot-1, 175-pound frame. The Miami signee is considered one of the draft’s safer picks and could sneak into the first 10 selections.

No comp is perfect, but as far as draft prospect parallels go, that’s not half-bad. If I’m alone on this so be it, but I believe thinking of Moniak as a lefthanded version of Albert Almora, the sixth overall pick in 2012, kind of works. Because we’re already up to five comps, what’s one more? A contact I trust dropped Ender Inciarte as a possible career path and production point of comparison for Moniak, assuming the power never really comes around. I see Moniak as a hitter just a tweak or three away from tapping into some of his average raw power more consistently, so anything in that 45/50 scouting grade band (12-18 HR) feels within reach for him at maturity. For all the comps thrown Moniak’s way this spring, it’s really hard to top the Yelich one. I think that’s one of the better comps of any prospect in recent years. I really like Yelich. I really like Moniak.

Another potential angle with this year’s prep outfielders is one that has been generally underplayed by the experts so far this spring. My sources, such as they are, have led me to believe that there is serious internal debate among many scouting staffs about the respective merits of Rutherford and Kirilloff. The idea that there’s a consensus favorite between the two among big league scouting departments is apparently way off the mark. This may surprise many draft fans who have read about 100x more on Rutherford this spring than Kirilloff, but I think the confusion at the top of the high school outfield class is real. I’d guess that most teams have either Moniak or Rutherford in the first spot; the teams that Moniak first, however, might not necessarily have Rutherford behind him at second. Kirilloff is far more liked by teams than many of the expert boards I’ve seen this spring.

We already ran down a number of the popular comps for Moniak, so we might as well give in to the same temptation with Rutherford. This has surely been a very painful read for the anti-comps crowd out there. My bad. As for Rutherford, the list of comps out there is impressive: Grady Sizemore (Fangraphs), Jim Edmonds (Baseball America), David Justice (swing only from Perfect Game), and Trot Nixon (I forget) are just a few of the big names tossed around this spring. I’ve likened Rutherford to a remixed version of both Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier in the past, and I think there’s a chance that he might wind up as a player who has the best qualities of both of his soon-to-be fellow minor league outfield prospects. One fun outside the box comp that I heard recently was a young, lefthanded version of Moises Alou. It’s not totally crazy. Here are some of the old Alou scouting reports I could dig up…

1990: “All tools above. Good hitting approach – with power. Not good base stealer – as yet. Great body for speed and power. Good stroke – stays inside ball. Very strong arm. Confident young man…plus tools. Good outfielder. Future All Star…perhaps not in CF but in RF. Would exhaust CF first.”

1992: 7 hit, 6 power, 6 speed, 5 arm, 7 glove, 6 range “Good young player. Live body, All Star potential. Good contact type. 10-15 HR. SB potential 20-25. Everyday OF.”

Funny that 6 power meant 10-15 home runs to that one scout (doubly so when we remember the offensive environment at the time), but grades aren’t as easily translated as the bigger publications who push grading every prospect in every tool because that’s the only way to cover minor league prospects would have you think. Did that get a little ranty? Whoops. Anyway, I think a lot of those grades and notes on Alou could be very easily be lifted instead from a report on Rutherford. His upside is that of a consistently above-average offensive regular outfielder while defensively being capable of either hanging in center for a bit (a few years of average glove work out there would be nice) or excelling in an outfield corner (making this switch early could take a tiny bit of pressure off him as he adjusts to pro pitching). His floor, like almost all high school hitters, is AA bat with holes in his swing that are exploited by savvier arms.

It’s really hard to break down two different high school hitters from two different coasts, but I’ll do my best with what I have to compare Rutherford and Kirilloff. This is hardly a definitive take because, like just about any of my evaluations, I’m just one guy making one final call based on various inputs unique to the information I have on hand. I’m not a scout; I’m just a guy who pretends to know things on the internet. I give Kirilloff the slight edge in raw power, a definite arm strength advantage, and a very narrow lead in bat speed. Rutherford has the better swing (very close call), defensive upside (his decent chance to stay in center for a few years trumps Kirilloff’s average corner outfield/plus first base grades), and hit tool. The two are very close when it comes to approach (both plate discipline and ability to drive it to all fields), athleticism (another slight lean Rutherford, but Kirilloff is underrated here), and foot speed. I actually had Kirilloff ahead by a hair going into the NHSI, but Rutherford’s run of fantastic plate appearances on day two were too much to ignore. Both are great prospects and very much worth top half of the first round selections. I can’t wait to see how high they wind up on my final board.

Another solid hook here could have been the rise of the ultra-athletic late-first round helium outfield prospect. We’re talking Brandon Marsh, Taylor Trammel, Connor Capel, Hunter Bishop, John Flowers, Khalil Lee, and Thomas Jones are all outstanding athletes who should begin getting interest from teams beginning around pick twenty to twenty-five. There’s a decent chance that all of those guys are off the board by the end of the second round. Ten prep outfielders were taken in the first two rounds last year (the average is around 8.5 HS OF taken in the top two rounds since 2009), so expecting something similar (the seven I named plus the big three at the top) is well within the realm of possibility. Will Benson (who some still think of as the third member of the prep OF Big Three over Kirilloff), Akil Baddoo (all he does is hit), Jared Shelby (very little buzz about him this spring, but I like him), Avery Tuck (it only takes one team to still believe…), Chase Creek (burner who probably deserves to be on the athlete list), and Josh Stephen (solid all over, especially at the plate) all are candidates to crash the top two round party as well. This leaves out players like Garrett Hodges (love the hit tool), Dylan Carlson (fast-rising bat I’ve heard called a “second round version of Kirilloff”), Francisco Del Valle (big power), Dean Looney (more big power), and Trevyne Carter (another great athlete), not to mention the usual handful of high school athletes at other spots who get called as outfielders on draft day right off the bat.

If we stick with the idea that Moniak, Rutherford, and Kirilloff (in whatever order you like) are the Big Three this year, then that opens the door to all kinds of fun names to lay claim to the fourth spot. My current lean is Brandon Marsh, the highly athletic plus to plus-plus runner out of Georgia. We know he’s got four average or better tools (you can add a plus arm, average or better raw power, and easy center field range to his hot wheels), but, like many prospects of his ilk, we don’t know how his bat will play against professional pitching. Between the swing, the bat speed, and his approach to date, there are lots of encouraging signs, so gambling you at least get an average-ish hit tool out of him seems more than fair. Combined with his other tools, that player is a potential monster. Everything said about Marsh can also be said about Taylor Trammel, minus the arm strength accolades. Trammel can run and defend with the best in his class, but his arm is inconsistent at best. One thing I really like about him is how real his progression has felt this past calendar year. There’s been no surge in buzz about him throughout the spring; instead, it’s been a slow and steady build, as many scouts have noted that the average grades on his sheet have morphed into above-average to plus marks over the course of his final season. Yet another Georgia high school prospect, Will Benson, is currently sandwiched between the two on my rankings. I never really got the Jason Heyward comp for Benson – the most Heyward thing about Heyward is his plus defense, something that Benson is a long way from, if he ever gets there at all – but I like the connection between him and Kyle Lewis. I don’t think he lasts until the second, but he would make for an excellent consolation prize for a team picking at the top of the first round that misses out on the Mercer star with their first pick. Or just grab them both and begin hoping that you’ve just taken care of your outfield corners for the next decade.

You know what? We could have just made this whole thing about California and Georgia. We’ve covered the two big California guys at the top and the preceding paragraph is all about three Georgia boys in a row. And now here I am ready to spend a little time with Akil Baddoo and Garrett Hodges. My list isn’t finalized just yet, but the first draft has six of the first seven and ten of the first fourteen high school outfielders in this class being from either CA or GA. I firmly believe in Baddoo’s bat. I also believe in Baddo because of a David Rawnsley (Perfect Game) comp from earlier this spring. He dropped a Rondell White on Baddo’s game. White was the first prospect that I ever truly loved. Seven-year-old me saw him play during the summer of 1993 for the Harrisburg Senators. His presence on the field was so striking that I instantly became hooked on the fun behind following prospects, tracking player development, and cheering teams on who were committed to building through the farm system. White gave me hope as a baseball fan that the next big thing was always just around the corner. As for Hodges, well, I don’t know if I’m out on an island with him at this point or what, but I firmly believe that he’ll hit. Bat-first prep prospects are tough to love, but I really, really like Hodges.

*****

OF Akil Baddoo (Salem HS, Georgia)
OF Aldrich De Jongh (Trinity Christian Academy, Florida)
OF Alvaro Valdez (Westminster Christian HS, Florida)
OF Andre Nnebe (St. Mary’s HS, California)
OF Avery Tuck (Steele Canyon HS, California)
OF Bailin Markridge (O’Connor HS, Arizona)
OF Ben Lewis (Horizon HS, Arizona)
OF Blake Rutherford (Chaminade Prep HS, California)
OF Brad Demco (Lake Travis HS, Texas)
OF Brandon Marsh (Buford HS, Georgia)
OF Brock Anderson (Sparkman HS, Alabama)
OF Brock Howard (Harmony HS, Florida)
OF Caleb Green (Metter HS, Georgia)
OF Cameron Blake (Round Rock HS, Texas)
OF Chase Cheek (Phillips HS, Florida)
OF Chase Murray (Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy, Ohio)
OF Chavez Young (Faith Baptist Academy, Florida)
OF Christian Long (Westside HS, Texas)
OF Christian Moya (South Hills HS, California)
OF Clayton Keyes (Bishop Carroll HS, Alberta)
OF Colin Brophy (Notre Dame HS, California)
OF Connor Capel (Seven Lakes HS, Texas)
OF Dalton Griffin (South Effingham HS, Georgia)
OF Dante Baldelli (Bishop Hendricken HS, Rhode Island)
OF Dean Looney (Butler HS, North Carolina)
OF Denilson Elligson (Graceville HS, Florida)
OF Dominic Clementi (Arrowhead HS, Wisconsin)
OF Dominic Fletcher (Cypress HS, California)
OF Donnie Gleneski (Bishop Kenny HS, Florida)
OF Dylan Hirsch (El Camino Real HS, California)
OF EP Reese (North Davidson HS, North Carolina)
OF Eric Rivera (Flanagan HS, Florida)
OF Francisco Del Valle (PR Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
OF Gabe Simons (Ada HS, Oklahoma
OF Garrett Hodges (South Effingham HS, Georgia)
OF Hunter Bishop (Serra HS, California)
OF Hunter Judd (Knoxville Catholic HS, Tennessee)
OF Jack Suwinski (Taft HS, Illinois)
OF Jacob Hirsh (O’Dea HS, Washington)
OF Jake Suddleson (Harvard-Westlake HS, California)
OF Jalen Harrison (St. Anne’s-Belfield HS, Virginia)
OF Jaren Shelby (Tates Creek HS, Kentucky)
OF Jarrett Finger (Grandview HS, Colorado)
OF Jeremy Ydens (St. Francis HS, California)
OF Jerrette Lee (Columbus HS, Georgia)
OF Joe Acker (Marquette University HS, Wisconsin)
OF Joe Faulkner (Cumberland Gap HS, Tennessee)
OF Jordan McFarland (Waterloo HS, Illinois)
OF Jordan Wiley (Richland HS, Texas)
OF Jose Layer (Colegio Angel David, Puerto Rico)
OF Josh Stephen (Mater Dei HS, California)
OF Juan Carlos Abreu (Winter Springs HS, Florida
OF Kace Massner (Burlington Community HS, Iowa)
OF Kameron Misner (Poplar Bluff HS, Missouri
OF Keegan Snowbarger (St. Xavier HS, Kentucky)
OF Keenan Bell (Episcopal HS, Florida)
OF Kingsley Ballao (Maui HS, Hawaii)
OF Kobi Owen (Episcopal HS, Texas)
OF Kobie Taylor (Portsmouth HS, New Hampshire)
OF Landon Silver (Huntington Beach HS, California)
OF Langston Watkins (Louisville Male HS, Kentucky)
OF Luke Lalumia (Grand Ledge HS, Michigan)
OF Marcus Mack (Bellaire HS, Texas)
OF Mason Nadeau (North Penn HS, Pennsylvania)
OF Matthew Fraizer (Clovis North HS, California)
OF Michael Farley (Chico HS, California)
OF Michael Wilson (Colonia HS, New Jersey)
OF Mickey Moniak (La Costa Canyon HS, California)
OF Nick Howie (Garth Webb SS, Ontario)
OF Nick Neville (IMG Academy, Florida)
OF Nick Wilhite (Buford HS, Georgia)
OF Nikolas Dague (Sickles HS, Florida)
OF Otis Statum (Bishop O’Dowd HS, California)
OF Preston Jones (Mountain View HS, Washington)
OF Quin Cotton (Regis Jesuit HS, Colorado)
OF Raymond Hernandez (Fernando Ledesma Continuation, Puerto Rico)
OF Raymond Salaman (Luis Hernaiz Verone HS, Puerto Rico)
OF Robert Bullard (Thurgood Marshall HS, Texas)
OF Ronald Washington (Ridge Point HS, Texas)
OF Ryan Brown (St. James HS, Maryland)
OF Ryan Mejia (Alonso HS, Florida)
OF Ryan Novis (Corona Del Sol HS, Arizona)
OF Spencer Taylor (Trinity Christian Academy, Florida)
OF Taylor Trammel (Mount Paran Christian HS, Georgia)
OF Ted Sabato (Brunswick HS, New York)
OF Terence Norman (Kennesaw Mountain HS, Georgia)
OF Thomas Jones (Laurens District 55 HS, South Carolina)
OF Todd Lott (Trinity Christian Academy, Florida)
OF Tony Schultz (Saints Peter and Paul HS, Maryland)
OF Trace Bucey (Carroll HS, Texas)
OF Tre Turner (Holy Cross HS, Louisiana)
OF Tremaine Spears (Tioga HS, Louisiana)
OF Trevyne Carter (Soddy Daisy HS, Tennessee)
OF Troy Johnston (Rogers HS, Washington)
OF Wyatt Featherston (Green Mountain HS, Colorado)
OF/1B Alex Kirilloff (Plum HS, Pennsylvania)
OF/1B Dylan Carlson (Elk Grove HS, California)
OF/1B Will Benson (The Westminster Schools, Georgia)
OF/3B Armani Smith (De La Salle HS, California)
OF/3B Matthew Gorski (Hamilton Southeastern HS, Indiana)
OF/LHP Austin Langworthy (Williston HS, Florida)
OF/LHP Carter Nelson (Jenks HS, Oklahoma)
OF/LHP Khalil Lee (Flint Hill HS, Virginia)
OF/LHP Kyle Stowers (Christian HS, California)
OF/RHP Brandon Fraley (Caravel Academy, Delaware)
OF/RHP Connor Kimple (Marquette HS, Wisconsin)
OF/RHP John Flowers (Trinity Christian Academy, Florida)
OF/RHP Michael Toglia (Gig Harbor HS, Washington)
OF/RHP Trevor Boone (Tulsa Memorial HS, Oklahoma)

Kris Bryant and HS C/3B Success Rates

It’s Friday, so it’s time to go with something a little lighter than the usual three thousand word prep prospect ramblings that have peppered the site over the past two weeks. That wave of high school analysis on the site of late – we’ve covered catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, and third basemen so far – makes it as good a time as any to share one of my favorite high school scouting blurbs in recent memory. Here’s a snippet from a report about a guy you might know

The power, however, mostly shows up during batting practice or when he has a metal bat in his hands. There are a lot of moving parts to his swing and he has trouble barreling balls up with wood, so how much usable power he ends up having is a big question. He has a long, loopy swing and he never changes his approach when he’s struggling. He’s athletic for a big guy and may be able to handle third base. He has the arm for it, and some scouts said they wouldn’t be shocked if he eventually ended up on the mound.

Scouting, man. It’s all just a big guessing game. Especially with HS hitters. Don’t let anybody ever tell you different. All anybody does is make their best informed guesses and then move on to the next player.

Speaking of Kris Bryant (the HS hitter above was Kris Bryant, BTW), here’s how his draft year stacks up with a few of this year’s draft top bats…

.329/.493/.820 – 66 BB/44 K – 7/11 SB

That’s Bryant.

.411/.551/.822 – 40 BB/25 K – 0/1 SB

This is Will Craig, the guy I haven’t shut up about all year. He’s finally moved up on the “expert” lists from that fifth round area before the year to a potential mid- to late-first round pick. Still like my AJ Reed comp for him. He shares at least some similarities to Bryant in that a) he’s a college third baseman, b) he’s got a good enough arm to moonlight on the mound, and c) he’s chock full of righthanded power.

.387/.560/.655 – 59 BB/33 K – 0/3 SB

This guy is my favorite hitter in the draft, Zack Collins. He’s the one I’ve comped to Schwarber stylistically. I actually think Collins is the better catcher and could stick there as a pro. Still might be best moving him out from behind the plate. I’ve just come up with a terrifying comp for him…Joey Votto. Maybe he’s one of those hitters that we shouldn’t compare young guys to, but then again…at the same age, Votto hit .256/.330/.425 with 52 BB/122 K in A+ ball. I could see Collins going to A/A+ this year after the draft and doing similar stuff.

.419/.547/.753 – 56 BB/42 K – 6/11 SB

Arguably the closest comp to Bryant statistically is Kyle Lewis. Most walks, most whiffs, and some degree of a speed component. They also both played slightly lesser conference competition than their peers. I still kind of think that he’s got a lot of Yasiel Puig in his game — both the good and the bad — but that’s admittedly a minority view. Jermaine Dye is a good one put out there by Frankie Piliere. I’ve also heard Derek Bell, a name that I like because I think it fits fairly well and because any excuse to look up Derek Bell again gives the mid-90s sports nostalgia part of my brain a jolt.

Now it should be clear that none of these guys is Bryant. And I should also make clear that the high school scouting report quoted above was for entertainment purposes only; nobody in their right mind would compare a prep slugger yet to fully realize his potential to a more fully formed college hitter.

Bryant’s funny in hindsight high school scouting report isn’t really related (all that much, anyway) to the player he would eventually become. The fact that I went from Point A (it’s damn hard to get a read on HS hitters no matter how good you are at this) to Point B (hey, I’m just now realizing we have some strong statistical performers in the college game that should be held up against the recent gold standard in college hitting) using Bryant in both was honestly just a fun coincidence.

That said, it was pretty funny to look up the numbers of Craig, Collins, and Lewis and see all sorts of impressive BAs and OBPs…and then realize that those things actually work against them when trying to compare them to Bryant. Bryant’s power production as a college junior was just unreal: a 491 ISO is Ruth/Bonds/McGwire territory. Craig comes closest and he’s still almost one hundred points away. I guess this is the point where I should mention that Bryant was playing in some homer friendly parks in the WCC while Craig gets to play a ton of games at a very hitter friendly park at Wake Forest. Without access to College Splits I can’t really say how much those factors have impacted each player’s performance, but I think somewhere between not at all to a ton is fair. But still! Craig’s numbers look closest at the surface level, so if you really wanted to be that kind of draft fan…

So, yeah, none of these guys is Bryant. Thankfully, not being Bryant is not the standard that big league teams hold young power prospects. Each guy is good with his own pros and cons. All should be first round picks and an argument can be made that all belong in the top ten.

*****

I’ve mentioned explicitly how high school first basemen and second basemen have been a historically risky draft proposition. I’ve mentioned the opposite being true for high school shortstops. I’ve implied that prep catchers might be a bad investment. Time to look at that in a more concrete way; here’s what I’ve got…

2011 – Blake Swihart and Greg Bird (Austin Hedges)
2010 – N/A
2009 – JR Murphy, Wil Myers, Max Stassi, and Tucker Barnhart (Steven Baron)
2008 – Christian Vasquez (Kyle Skipworth, Adrian Nieto)
2007 – Devin Mesoraco, Travis d’Arnaud, and Derek Norris (Austin Romine, Juan Centeno)
2006 – Hank Conger
2005 – (Brandon Snyder, Bryan Anderson, Josh Thole)
2004 – Neil Walker, Lou Marson, Martin Maldonado, and Tyler Flowers (Angel Salome)
2003 – Daric Barton and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Steven Lerud)
2002 – Joey Votto and Brian McCann (Kyle Phillips)
2001 – Joe Mauer, Rene Rivera, and Geovany Soto
2000 – Yadier Molina and Mike Napoli

The first set of names are players who have accrued positive value in the big leagues so far while the names in parentheses have reached the majors but have career negative rWAR. I went back to 2011 as a starting point to allow recent draftees the appropriate time to develop in the minors. That conveniently left us with pretty numbers: in the last twelve drafts we can fairly draw conclusions from, there have been 24 positive value drafted and signed catchers. That’s two per class. Turns out I’ve made similar assertions in the past…

All of the caveats from above (historical trends aren’t more important than individual prospects being the most relevant and most important here) apply, but taking into everything else into account we can guess that the following will wind up as true in 2015…

1) The first high school catching prospect should expect to be off the board around the mid-20s in the first round.
2) There will be other quality catching prospects (perhaps up to five) off the board through round four, but not so much after that point.
3) Only two of said prospects should be expected to have meaningful MLB careers as catchers.

This is once again the point in these historical draft trend conversations, in much the same way that I did above a few years ago, that I want to make very clear that I think these look backs are more interesting conversation-starters than definitive conclusions meant for predictive purposes. Just knowing that something happened is not the same as understanding why it happened. I think there are some pretty compelling theories that explain some of the “why” with each of the positions that seem to flop hardest, but past draft history shouldn’t dictate future draft decisions.

Since we’re on the subject of draft trends anyway, here’s a list of high school third basemen since 2000 who have reached the highest level of professional ball…

2012 – Joey Gallo
2011 – Tyler Goeddel
2010 – Nick Castellanos
2009 – Nolan Arenado and Matt Davidson
2008 – Brett Lawrie
2007 – Matt Dominguez, Jake Smolinski, Matt West, and Steven Souza (Josh Vitters, Neftali Soto, and Will Middlebrooks)
2006 – (Ryan Adams)
2005 – Chris Carter and Alex Avila (Josh Bell)
2004 – Billy Butler, Nick Evans, and Russ Canzler
2003 – Ian Stewart (Jamie Roman and Travis Schlichting)
2002 – (Brock Peterson)
2001 – David Wright (Matthew Brown)
2000 – Edwin Encarnacion (Scott Thorman)

There have been eighteen positive value drafted and signed high school third basemen since 2000. There have been twenty-eight total big league third basemen out of the same group. Of the eighteen positive (or neutral for the sake of this discussion) players, Davidson, Castellanos, Goeddel (0.0 rWAR), and Russ Canzler (0.0 rWAR) all just barely stayed out of the negative. Many have needed position switches to first base or an outfield corner while one (West) has made his contribution on the mound.

With nothing remotely conclusive about these conclusions, I think we can say that high school catchers, first basemen, second basemen, and third basemen are historically questionable selections. High school shortstops, on the other hand, are where the money is at. Hardly a breakthrough observation, but interesting that recent outcomes bear it out.

2016 MLB Draft – High School Third Basemen

I still have a few weeks left to finalize things, so don’t consider the following statement set in stone just yet. However, I feel pretty good about this particular 2016 MLB Draft take: the top two high school third base prospects are better than the top two high school outfield prospects. I’ll take Josh Lowe and Nolan Jones over Mickey Moniak and Blake Rutherford. I’m not quite plugged in enough to know if that’s a bold statement or not, but it feels at least a little out there. Allow me to explain.

First off, I’m incredibly biased when it comes to Jones. I’m pleased to admit that out front because said admission of bias was well worth getting to watch him play a bunch this spring at Holy Ghost Prep. Getting the chance to see a young man with his kind of talent thirty minutes play his home games thirty minutes from the office was an incredible experience. Jones is an electrifying player who really can do it all as a prospect. In about twenty minutes of game time in his most recent appearance, he was able to hit a homer (one of two on the day), swipe a bag, and turn a slick double play at short. That run was topped only by an earlier game when he smoked the ball every time up before ending the game in extras with an opposite field rocket that cleared the fence in left. He’s outstanding. I think the sky is the limit for him as a professional ballplayer. I’ve seen him more frequently than any other top prospect in this class, which gives me a little more insight to his strengths and weaknesses as a player (whether or not said insight should be trusted is up to the reader) but also presents a challenge in fighting human nature. It’s only natural to want to see a player you’ve come to watch and appreciate throughout the past year succeed going forward. My assessment of him as a player won’t help him or hurt him in any conceivable way, but there’s definitely some subconscious work going on that pushes players we’re more familiar with up the board.

Of course, all of those firsthand observations can be a double-edged sword when it comes down to doing what I attempt to accomplish with this site. My process for evaluating players here includes all kinds of inputs, the least critical of which being what I see with my own two eyes. It’s not that I lack confidence my own personal evaluations; quite the opposite, really, so realizing that my ego needs to be in check brings me to not wanting to fall into the trap that has led to more botched first round picks than any other singular mistake. The easiest way to ruin all the hard work of so many is to have one supposed “expert” come in and make decisions with little regard to the opinions of the group. When a general manager overrules the collective decision of the scouting staff to select a first round player that he has fallen in love with after just a few short views, the resulting pick is almost always a disaster. It’s admittedly a rare occurrence – there’s a reason real analysis of a team’s drafting record gets pinned on the scouting director and not the general manager – but it does happen. Whether it’s ego, pressure to find a quick-mover to potentially save jobs (including his own), or actual conviction in the prospect (the most palatable option for sure, but still tough to stomach when dealing with small firsthand scouting samples), it happens.

Long story short: I don’t want to be like one of those GM’s. I like trusting what I read and hear, both publicly and privately, because those are the closest analogues to a “scouting staff” that any one outsider like me can hope to assemble. That will never stop me from going to games and showcases to form my own opinions, but I’d prefer to use those to supplement the larger scouting dossier assembled than to make up the basis of it. In many ways I consider what I see up close as a tie-breaker and not much more.

It is, however, quite nice when what I’ve heard is backed up by what I’ve seen. That’s exactly what has happened with Jones this spring. The total package is awfully enticing: chance for a legit plus hit tool (lightning fast hands, advanced pitch recognition, consistent hard contact), plus arm strength (confirmed via the eye and the low-90s fastballs on the gun) that is also uncannily accurate, average or better run times, prodigious raw power (have seen him go deep to all fields this spring), and loads of athleticism. I’d even go so far as to suggest he’s shown enough in the way of shortstop actions to at least get certain teams thinking about letting him try to stay up the middle for a bit, but that might be pushing it. Recent big shortstops like Carlos Correa and Corey Seager have reversed the trend somewhat, but I still think Jones would be best served getting third base down pat as a pro.

Finding reasonable comps for a lefthanded hitting third baseman – which, naturally, just so happens to be what our top three prospects here happen to be – is unreasonably challenging. I’ll start with the WHOA (not to be confused with wOBA, BTW) comp and work backwards.

One older fan – not a scout, not a Holy Ghost Prep booster, but just a fan of the game – was at frequent games this spring. I got friendly enough with the gentleman, around the same age (late-60s) as my father if I had to guess, over the course of the spring that he felt good about dropping an Eddie Mathews comp on Jones as an all-around player. Now that’s a name that gets your attention. My dad raves about Mathews’s physical tools to this day. All of the numbers suggest that he’s on the very short list of best lefthanded third basemen ever to play the game, so that’s not a comparison to be taken lightly. I’ll repeat that it was coming from a fan – though, again, not one with a vested interest in the team or the player, only the sport – and I’m nowhere near qualified to say whether or not he was on the right path with such a lofty comp, but, hey, Hall of Fame comps are fun, so there you go.

Two additional names that came up that I think fit the lefthanded hitting third base profile pretty well were Hank Blalock (strictly as a hitter, though I think the raw power difference between the two makes this one questionable) and Corey Koskie. The Koskie comparison is one I find particularly intriguing. Koskie, a criminally underrated player during his time, was good for a career 162 game average of .275/.367/.458 with 20 HR, 12 SB, and 75 BB/130 K. We’re totally pulling numbers out of thin air with any amateur prospect projection – doubly so with teenagers – but that seems like a reasonable hope based on what I’ve seen out of Jones. Offense like that combined with plus defense at third would make one heck of a player in today’s game. For reference’s sake, that’s almost like a better version of late-career Adrian Beltre. Of course, the mention of Beltre is not meant to serve as a direct comparison but rather a potential production comp.

Now if I wanted to drop a righthanded hitting third baseman comparison on Jones that wasn’t Beltre, I think I’d go with a young Ryan Zimmerman. His 162 game average to date: .282/.347/.473 with 25 HR, 5 SB, and 64 BB/124 K. Not entirely dissimilar to Koskie, right? A young Zimmerman/Koskie type is a tremendously valuable player, with those two each clocking in right around 4.0 fWAR average (Zimmerman a bit more, Koskie a hair less) during years of club control. Going back to our lefthanded third base comp in Koskie brings us to this final “hey, maybe Jones should be a top five pick in this class” moment of the day. Koskie, the 715th overall pick in 1994, finished his career with 24.6 rWAR. That total would have placed him fourth behind only Javier Vazquez (46.0), Nomar Garciaparra (44.2), and Paul Konerko (27.6) in his draft class. He’s just ahead of Jason Varitek (24.3) and AJ Pierzynski (24.0). My non-comprehensive look on the Fangraphs leaderboards has him ahead of all but Vazquez and Garciaparra. We live in a world where Corey Koskie ranked in the top three (or four) in a given draft class, so why not Nolan Jones?

Jones really is that good. Believe the hype. And yet I have him second to Josh Lowe. That should tell you a good bit about what I think about Lowe as a player. He’s a little bit of a higher variance prospect than Jones – more upside if it all clicks, but less certainty he turns into a solid professional than I’d put on Jones – so if I was a real scouting director with real future earnings on the line, I’m not sure I’d take him quite as high as he could wind up on my final rankings. The possibility, however, that he winds up as the best player to come out of this class is very real. He reminds me just a little bit of an opposite-hand version of this guy

Bryant entered the summer with lofty expectations, but he often looked overmatched at the plate during the showcase circuit last summer. When he’s on, he’s a treat to watch. He has a lean, 6-foot-5, 195-pound frame and light-tower power that draws comparisons to a young Troy Glaus. The power, however, mostly shows up during batting practice or when he has a metal bat in his hands. There are a lot of moving parts to his swing and he has trouble barreling balls up with wood, so how much usable power he ends up having is a big question. He has a long, loopy swing and he never changes his approach when he’s struggling. He’s athletic for a big guy and may be able to handle third base. He has the arm for it, and some scouts said they wouldn’t be shocked if he eventually ended up on the mound. Some scouts love Bryant’s power enough to take him in the back half of the first round, while others turned him in as a token gesture and have little interest in him–especially for the price it will take to lure him away from his San Diego commitment.

I really, really like Josh Lowe, if that’s not already clear. I mean, I did once kind of compare him to Babe Ruth. I think a team would be justified taking either Lowe or Jones in the top ten…and quite possibly the top five…or maybe even top three. Let me stop now before I really get too far ahead of myself.

Drew Mendoza is a third potential first round high school third baseman with the kind of physical tools to project a long-term above-average regular at the hot corner. Opinions about his hit tool run the gamut from “love” (above-average to plus) to “wait, what’s the opposite of love again?” (too much swing-and-miss with exploitable holes against more advanced pitching), but I tend to side more with those who really liked him over the summer than those who have cooled on him some this spring. That again shows a little bit of the bias that I’d ideally eliminate from these evaluations – summer showcase performances are still generally given too much weight by many, myself included – but figuring out the right balance of so many informational inputs is the ongoing challenge of any talent evaluator. One interesting head-to-head prospect comparison I’ve had scouts debate over the past few months is Mendoza vs Carter Kieboom; I prefer the latter by a healthy margin, but there was little consensus among people I’ve talked to. My hunch is that Kieboom will be off the board first, but if the chatter I’ve heard is any indication, it’ll be very close.

Andres Sosa is neither built like Pope, Jones, nor Mendoz and he does not quite match any of those young lefthanders in the power department, but the righthander from Texas has a sweet stroke, a mature beyond his years approach to hitting, average or better speed, and high level defensive tools. He comes by it differently, but there are some similarities that I can see between Sosa, potential future Longhorn, and CJ Hinojosa, former Longhorn and current Giants prospect.

It’s easy to ignore high school statistics for top draft prospects. There are way too many complicating factors that make relying on performance indicators little more than a waste of time at that level, but it doesn’t mean we can’t have a little fun with some of the outstanding efforts put forth by some of this country’s best hitters. Take Bo Bichette, for example. All he’s done as a high school ballplayer is hit .545/.650/1.272 in 200 HS PA since his sophomore season. That line includes fifty extra base hits (almost half of which being home runs) with 52 BB and just 18 K. When you’re flirting with an OPS that begins with 2.something, you’re doing something right. It’s hard to put up such monster numbers in a competitive baseball state like Florida without having some pretty intriguing physical abilities to match. Interestingly enough, one of his physical traits that seems to have talked about the most is something that not all agree is a good thing. Bichette’s “weird back elbow thing” has been brought up by multiple contacts as a potential point of concern going forward; others, however, aren’t bothered by it in the least. I suppose like any unique swing setup, it’s only an issue for those who don’t believe in him as a hitter in the first place. If you like him, it’s a fun quirk that will either work as a pro or be smoothed out just enough to keep working after getting in the cage a few dozen times with pro coaching.

If you don’t like him, then it’s hard to get past. This is far from a one-to-one comparison, but the never-ending discussion among scouts about Bichette’s mechanics at the plate reminds me of the internet’s incessant chatter about Maikel Franco’s “arm-bar swing.” Breaking down players’ mechanics to the point that no pro team ever does makes you stand out as super smart on the internet, you see. Less cynically, I’d acknowledge that young hitters are hard to judge, so it’s hard to blame a neutral observer tasked with making a long-term assessment on a prospect’s future for being concerned with a hitter who does something different at the plate. Different can get you fired in this business, after all.

My own stance on hitting/pitching mechanics hasn’t changed much over the years: if it works for the individual and he is comfortable repeating it consistently, let it ride. I get that there are instances where guys can get away with mechanical quirks against lesser competition that need to be noted and potentially tweaked as they advance, but, for the most part, positive results beget positive results. If a kid can hit, let them do what they do until they stop hitting. Then and only then do you swoop in and start making peripheral changes to the approach. Of course, this makes me sound like a caveman: results over process is a terrible way to analyze anything, especially if we’re trying to make any kind of predictive critical assessments. Process is critical, no doubt, but I’m open to all kinds of processes that get results; it should go without saying but just in case, there’s no “right” way to swing a bat. Open-mindedness about the process is as important as any other factor when scouting.

I guess my positive spin on players with unique mechanics is simple: if a guy like Bichette can hit the ball hard consistently with a “wrong” swing, then, as a scout confident in my team’s minor league coaching and development staff, I’d be pretty excited to get him signed to a contract to see what he could do once they “fix” him. Said fix would ideally be a tweak more than a total reconstruction – why completely tear down a productive player’s swing when you don’t have to? – but drafting a player you plan on drastically altering mechanically doesn’t make a ton of sense in the first place anyway.

Draft Bichette for his electric bat speed, above-average to plus raw power, and drastically improved whole-fields approach as a hitter. Draft him because he’s a solid runner who has flashed enough defensive tools to profile at multiple spots (3B, 2B, corner OF) on the diamond. Draft him because you believe that his “weird back elbow thing” can be channeled in a positive direction and turned into a helpful trigger when facing off against high-caliber arms. Don’t draft him to reinvent him as something he’s not.

*****

3B Austin Shenton (Bellingham HS, Washington)
3B Blake Berry (Casa Grande HS, California)
3B Braden Shewmake (Wylie East HS, Texas)
3B Brett Esau (Foothills Composite SS, Saskatchewan)
3B Chad McClanahan (Brophy College Prep, Arizona)
3B Cole Henderson (Valhalla HS, California)
3B Colin Ludwig (Chandler HS, Arizona)
3B Jake Slaughter (Ouachita Christian HS, Louisiana)
3B Joey Polak (Quincy Notre Dame HS, Illinois)
3B Joey Rose (Toms River North HS, New Jersey)
3B Kyle Johnson (Jackson Memorial HS, New Jersey)
3B Laney Orr (Reynolds HS, North Carolina)
3B Mason Templet (St. Thomas More HS, Louisiana)
3B Matthew Miller (Paintsville HS, Kentucky)
3B Mitchell Caskey (Westside HS, Texas)
3B Peyton Russoniello (Quaker Valley HS, Pennsylvania)
3B Riley Hogan (Edgewater HS, Florida)
3B Spencer Steer (Millikan HS, California)
3B William Matthiessen (West Linn HS, Oregon)
3B Zach Weller (Coronado HS, California)
3B/2B Bo Bichette (Lakewood HS, Florida)
3B/OF Anthony Gonnella (Riverside HS, Florida)
3B/RHP Grant Judkins (Pella HS, Iowa)
3B/RHP Josh Lowe (Pope HS, Georgia)
3B/RHP Mason Studstill (Rockledge HS, Florida)
3B/RHP Matt Mervis (Georgetown Prep, Maryland)
3B/RHP Rylan Thomas (Windermere Prep, Florida)
3B/SS Andres Sosa (Reagan HS, Texas)
3B/SS Colton Welker (Marjory Stoneman Douglas HS, Florida)
3B/SS Daniel Bakst (Poly Prep Country Day School, New York)
3B/SS Drew Mendoza (Lake Minneola HS, Florida)
3B/SS Kevin Brophy (Morristown-Beard School, New Jersey)
3B/SS Luis Curbelo (Cocoa HS, Florida)
3B/SS Matt Burkart (Eaton HS, Colorado)
3B/SS Nolan Jones (Holy Ghost Prep, Pennsylvania)

Jay Groome vs Tyler Mondile

I’ve never seen a high school baseball with a surrounding atmosphere quite like this one. Parking lots were full hours before first pitch. Fans of all ages were set up tailgating with spreads more typical of fall Sundays. I had heard that they ran out of physical tickets by the end and were letting people in via a simple one-to-one cash transaction at the gate. Jay Groome vs Tyler Mondile packed the house. It was a pretty special sight to behold. Pat Gillick, Johnny Almaraz, Charley Kerfeld, Jorge Velandia, Kiley McDaniel, Jon Adkins, Keith Law (five rows ahead of us), Jonathan Mayo, and a handful of others that I couldn’t quite place were among the 6,005 people jammed into Campbell’s Field in beautiful Camden, New Jersey. At five dollars a head, that means over $15,000 was raised for the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and an Audubon HS student currently battling brain cancer of her own. Pretty cool. Also cool: the two starting pitchers that brought the crowd out doing exactly what fans of both were hoping to see.

Tyler Mondile looked really good. He actually tied Groome for the hottest heater of the night at 94 MPH — I had them both getting there four different times, but saw Mondile up to 95 on a few of the guns around me — and had the more consistent velocity throughout the evening. In a funny twist, Mondile happened to hit 94 with his fastball three straight times in his first head-to-head battle with Groome at the plate. Groome took a fastball in for a strike, a fastball further in for a ball, and a fastball on the outer half to put him in a 1-2 hole before the at bat ended preemptively when Mondile got a little help from his catcher with a stolen base threat eliminated at third base. If there was any doubt that Mondile was pumped for this one — and two seconds of watching him stomp around the field pre-game would push those thoughts aside right quick — then the 94, 94, 94 to start the at bat against the opposing starting pitcher was a clear indicator of how amped up the Gloucester Catholic righthander must have been feeling.

Beyond the strong showing of arm strength, I was impressed with the admittedly few curves Mondile managed to drop in for strikes (76-79 MPH). He used it more as a pitch in and around the strike zone than as a chase pitch, but it had the shape and consistency to worth in both directions with continued use. In time, the pitch looked like it could be a legitimate second weapon. There’s a good bit of effort in Mondile’s delivery and his high level of demonstrative emotion on the mound (something that would make him a fan favorite in many markets) might mean a future in the bullpen could happen sooner rather than later, but reports of his changeup being an average or better offering and his ability to repeat said delivery make him worth trying as a starter as long as possible. I wouldn’t necessarily say his 6-1, 185 pound frame screamed projection, but his upper-half looked like it could stand to put on at least another ten pounds of weight to help even out his stout lower-body. Despite his relatively short stature, Mondile’s legs looked like they’d pass any relevant strength test. In this specific class it would be hard to call him a first rounder, but I could see him making sense for any team anywhere between rounds three and six. I came away believing that he likely made himself some money based on how he looked in front of a crowd with that many influential executives.

Unfortunately, I came away saying the opposite about Jay Groome. Kind of. I’ll warn everybody now that what you are about to read is the most annoyingly negative report on a pitcher coming off of a six-inning, fourteen strikeout performance as you could possibly imagine. That may be a pretty big stunner (or not, I’m no mind reader) to regular readers who ought to know two things about me by now: 1) I’m relentlessly positive about prospects, and 2) I’ve had Groome as my first overall prospect in this draft since late last summer and never really considered making a switch after seeing the big lefty throw three earlier times this winter/spring. I walked away from last night’s effort wondering if Groome’s stranglehold on the top spot should finally be loosened. Part of the thinking there is that Groome came into this start with an almost impossibly high bar set by his previous performances over the past calendar year. I wanted to see him go out there tonight and cement his status as the draft’s clear top prospect, and finally, mercifully, end the 1-1 discussion once and for all. If that sounds like the idiocy of getting on a player for not meeting my own arbitrarily set standards for his performance, then you’re exactly right. I’m not proud of that attitude, but I think a hyper-critical eye is needed when trying to separate a top ten talent (which Groome certainly is) from a potential 1-1 candidate (which he was 100% going in…and still could be even after a dominating statistical night that somehow left me wanting more).

Groome came out firing in the first with a string of low-90s fastballs (93, 94, 92, 93) before dropping a picture perfect 78 MPH curveball that made the Gloucester Catholic’s leadoff man’s knees buckle and the crowd of scouts and execs behind home plate (as well as a few thousand of their closest friends) audibly “oooh.” Incredibly, that was just the first of five different “oooh” curves he’d throw all night: there were two more in the fifth inning and two more after that in his sixth and final frame. I had that pitch ranging from 74-78 on the evening. Everything about the pitch is plus to plus-plus, though I think you could quibble some with a slightly slowed arm speed on the offering that tips it just enough for HS hitters to notice, but not nearly enough for them to react. The pitch is so good that there’s a chance he can get away with the slight pause in pro ball for a while; obvious point is obvious, but that’s really high praise. Groome’s curve is special and that alone makes him a top ten prospect in this class.

After going 93, 94, 92, 93, and 78 on the first batter, Groome went 93, 77, 92, 94, and 93 to the second hitter. That basic pattern — work off the fastball, mix in one curve per plate appearance — was followed by Groome for much of the game. I won’t say my notes were perfect — my focus on the fast-paced, well-pitched (though admittedly not particularly crisply played otherwise) game was a solid 98% throughout, but taking in the atmosphere occasionally led to a missed radar reading or two — but I only had Groome dropping two curves to the same batter on four occasions. This strategy obviously worked (14 strikeouts is 14 strikeouts) with the threat of a bigger fastball than he wound up showing, average fastball command that flashed better in certain at bats, and that devastating curve ranking as the reasons why in ascending order of importance.

Everything you’ve already seen, read, or heard about Groome’s mechanics held up. They are close to picture perfect. I’ve long been on the record of only caring about mechanical extremes, and I’d say with great confidence that Groome’s arm action and delivery are on that happy tail of the bell curve. With his frame, bulked up from a boy late last summer to a rock solid man by now (though I’d argue with some loss of athleticism), his age, and those textbook mechanics, it’s easy to imagine a day in the not so distant future where Groome is a consistent mid-90s arm if he wants to be. Of course, that’s all projection at this point: Groome’s velocity on this day fluctuated from those early game low-90s peaks to a strange middle inning dip to the mid- to upper-80s. I was almost positive while watching live that he wasn’t working in his changeup — some around me thought otherwise, for what it’s worth* — but I had him with an 85, 86, 87, and four 89’s between innings three and five. After thinking about it some more I could buy the mid-80s pitches being his attempt at the change to give the scouts a little taste of his third pitch; if so, I’ve seen it look better, but the arm action sure looked like the fastball, so at least there was that. Still, the 89’s for a well-rested teenage arm on a nice night weren’t exactly typical of what we’ve come to expect out of a potential first overall pick. He rebounded some in his final inning, sitting 90-91 with his fastball while relying more on the curve than in any other part of the game to that point. His final pitch of the night was a 92 MPH fastball that was swung through for eighth strikeout in a row to end the game and fourteenth overall.

(* Groome himself identified the pitch as a change: “As far as my command goes, I think that’s pretty good, but I need to show a little more depth to my changeup. I’m not really getting out in front of it and left a couple up high today. They fouled it off, they didn’t really make me pay. Later on down the road, I have to get that good depth on it.”)

This is the point in the report where I’m supposed to make a grand conclusion about what I saw out of Groome on the night. Well, I’ve got nothing. I selfishly wanted to see Groome at his very best — again, it’s worth pointing out that the man had fourteen strikeouts in six innings and that’s not his best — so that I could walk away ready to declare the race for 1-1 and top spot on my board over. The obvious good news is the confirmation that his curve and mechanics are both 1-1 caliber. His fastball has been in the past, but wasn’t on this night. I’m not terribly concerned about one good but not great velocity night — the fastball was still commanded fairly well (average to above-average), had such obvious late life that even my old eyes could see it, and came out of a deceptive enough slot that it had hitters taking bad swings all evening long — but I think the summer showcase version of Groome’s heater is (unsurprisingly) less the real thing than what we’ve seen out of him this spring. His changeup remains an open question, but that’s not atypical for a big-time high school arm with Groome’s brand of one-two punch locked and loaded for bear most starts. The development of his physique continues to surprise me — it’s as if he finds a way to pack on a pound or three of good weight every time I see him — but I do worry some that he’s getting close to the danger zone of sacrificing some looseness and athleticism, both facets of his game that excited me so much about him last summer, for strength. Add it all up (above-average fastball with plus upside, clear plus curve, changeup with a chance to be average, elegant mechanics, and a pro-ready body) and it’s clear that Jay Groome is a really, really good pitching prospect. What isn’t clear, however, is whether or not he’s the best amateur prospect in the country. For some, not yet knowing is knowing; when the risk of taking a teenage arm gets factored in, Groome not being a slam dunk pick above the rest means the risk is too great to pass on similarly valued peers (Puk, Lewis, Moniak, Rutherford, Perez, Ray, whomever) with more certainty. I think that’s where the Phillies are currently at in their evaluation. Between Groome’s staggering perfect world ceiling and moderate (for a HS arm) floor (less projection in his body than most, plus his mechanics portend good things to come) and the less than thrilling options that surround him at the top of the class, I’d have a hard time removing his name from 1-1 consideration if I was in charge of such a pick.

2016 MLB Draft – High School Shortstops

A brief history of the top high school shortstops selected and their respective ages in their draft year…

2015: Brendan Rodgers – turned 19 that August
2014: Nick Gordon – turned 19 that October
2013: JP Crawford – turned 19 that next January
2012: Carlos Correa – turned 18 that September
2011: Francisco Lindor – turned 18 that November
2010: Manny Machado – turned 18 that July
2009: Jiovanni Mier – turned 19 that August

Delvin Perez, set to turn 18-years-old this November, will join that club in a few weeks. He’ll be younger than everybody on that list, though Lindor, the player I used as the best case scenario comp for Perez at the start of the draft process, was only ten days older than Perez when comparing their respective draft years. We’ll come back to him shortly.

If we deem the past few seasons as too recent to make fairly assess, then we’re left with a ton of quick-moving impact big league talent at the position. There’s are many reasons why Major League Baseball is in the midst of yet another shortstop renaissance, and the recent influx of talented prep prospects has a lot to do with it. Take a look at this stretch of big league players (guys with * were drafted as shortstops but moved off sooner rather than later)…

2012: Correa, Addison Russell, Corey Seager
2011: Lindor, Javier Baez, Trevor Story, Mookie Betts*
2010: Machado, Ryan Brett*, Garin Cecchini*, JT Realmuto*
2009: Nick Franklin, Chris Owings, Billy Hamilton*, Enrique Hernandez*, Scooter Gennett*

You also have Gavin Cecchini, Daniel Robertson, and Roman Quinn on the way, though there’s a chance that all of the above will have asterisks by their name eventually if they don’t have one already. Then there’s also clear asterisks Michael Taylor (a negative value player to date, but there’s plenty of time to change that) and Mychal Givens, who really should have been on the mound in the first place. We’re just using that 2009-2012 draft band here; if we include the past three classes, we’ve got Crawford, Gordon, and Rodgers, among others, on the way. That’s a healthy group of high school shortstops drafted this decade.

If so inclined to use recent history as a guide, then the point here is pretty simple: when in doubt, draft a prep shortstop. We’ve seen how high school catchers, first basemen, and second basemen have proven to be questionable investments over the years. High school shortstops, on the other hand, have had a great deal of success. Nothing here is conclusive, nobody exists on purpose, nobody belongs anywhere, everybody’s gonna die. Let’s talk about high school shortstops.

One of the fun things about having a site like this for so long is having a long track record, good and bad, to look back on. I find looking back at the bad to be particularly illuminating. A crucial element to evaluation, in any walk of life, is the willingness and ability to self-scout. My own track record with the top high school shortstops of recent years is spotty at best. I’d like to think I’ve learned a few things along the way, but that can be a tough thing to see when you’re still in the middle of the seemingly never-ending year-to-year draft game. My evolution can be seen somewhat when looking at my experiences with Manny Machado in 2010, Francisco Lindor in 2011, Carlos Correa in 2012, and eventually Brendan Rodgers in 2015…and hopefully Delvin Perez in 2016.

This quick, admittedly self-indulgent journey begins with both Machado and Correa as I explained the latter’s high ranking at one point using the former’s far too low ranking as the learning experience that it was…

Correa represents my mea culpa for underrating Manny Machado in 2010. Their scouting reports read very, very similar, and are best summed up by the abundance of “above-average” and “plus” sprinkled throughout. Correa can throw with the best of them, and his foot speed, bat speed, approach, and range are all well above-average. He’ll need plenty of at bats against quality pitching, so his drafting team will have to be patient, but his experience against high velocity arms is encouraging.

I had Machado thirteenth on my final 2010 board. That means he was behind AJ Cole, Karsten Whitson, Stetson Allie (perhaps there’s a lesson there about HS arms…), Brandon Workman, Deck McGuire (or low-ceiling college arms…), and Justin O’Conner (think I’ve learned my lesson about non-elite HS catchers by now). Austin Wilson (ranked fifth) also stands out as a bad miss this year; there’s maybe some Will Benson or Blake Rutherford parallels with him, depending on how you look at things. As far as Machado, I just flat missed on his physical tools. Missing on aptitude or work ethic or willingness to take instruction or even projection of physical growth is one thing, but what I saw and heard of Machado was drastically different than how he really played the game. You could say I underrated his tools, but I’d go a step further and say I just flat didn’t appreciate him for what he was and could be. There could have been some contrarian bias in me then that I hope has gotten beaten out of me by now; sometimes guys are hyped for good reason, so going against the grain to be different is just flat stupid. If he’s good, say he’s good. If that means you have the same top five as everybody else, so be it. That exact contrarian streak kept bubbling up here as I had assumed most of the spring that Carter Kieboom would overtake Delvin Perez on this rankings one he showed everybody he could hang at shortstop. I LOVE Kieboom, as I hope I’ll clearly explain below. Perez just has that extra gear of athleticism, speed, and range that puts him in the same class as too many of the recent shortstop hits to ignore. One such hit is Francisco Lindor.

My take on Lindor after his limited debut season (20 PA) showed just enough personal growth that I’ll give myself a tiny gold star for the day…

Without repeating myself pre-draft too much (check all the bold below for that take), here’s where I stand on Monteverde Academy (FL) SS Francisco Lindor. Of all the positives he brings to the field, the two biggest positives I can currently give him credit for are his defense and time/age. Lindor’s defensive skills really are exemplary and there is no doubt that he’ll stick at shortstop through his first big league contract (at least). As for time/age, well, consider this a preemptive plea in the event Lindor struggles at the plate next season: the guy will be playing his entire first full pro season at just eighteen years old. For reference’s sake, Jimmy Rollins, the player I compared Lindor’s upside to leading up to the draft, played his entire Age-18 season at Low-A in the South Atlantic League and hit .270/.330/.370 in 624 plate appearances. A year like that wouldn’t be a shocker unless he goes all Jurickson Profar, a name Baseball Prospectus’ Jason Parks recently evoked after watching Lindor, on the low minors. Either way, I’m much happier with this pick now than I would have been a few months ago. Cleveland saw the opportunity to land a superstar talent at a premium defensive position and went for it, high risk and all.

That last line is where there’s some progress shown: “Cleveland saw the opportunity to land a superstar talent at a premium defensive position and went for it, high risk and all.” I think that belief informs where I’m at with Perez right now. There’s almost no denying the enormity of his ceiling, but the risk factor is very real. The list of successful prep shortstops who no longer play shortstop above helps mitigate some of those concerns as it seems that importance of being able to slide down the defensive spectrum can’t be overstated enough. Draft for stardom, hope for the best, and be willing and ready pivot developmentally to another defensive spot if necessary. Of course, if you get the stardom part wrong as I did with Machado, then your evaluation is doomed from the start. I at least allowed for that stardom with Lindor, so, yeah, some growth there. Not a ton, but some. I’ll take it.

I think I had mostly learned my lesson by the time it came to rank the aforementioned Carlos Correa first overall in 2012. That lesson was applied, more or less, last year when discussing Brendan Rodgers…

That’s a player worthy of going 1-1 if it all clicks, but there’s enough risk in the overall package that I’m not willing to call him the best player in this class. Second best, maybe. Third best, likely. The difference in ranking opinion is minute, but for a decision-maker picking within those first few selections it can mean the difference between job security for years to come (and, perhaps eventually, a ring…) or an outright dismissal even before getting to see this whole thing through.

The MLB Draft: go big on upside or go home, especially early on day one. And if you’ve got the smarts/guts enough to do just that, then make it a shortstop when possible. And if you’re going to gamble on a high risk/high reward shortstop, make it as young a shortstop as you can find. And if that young shortstop also happens to have game-changing speed, an above-average to plus arm, plus raw power, and a frame to dream on, then…well, maybe Delvin Perez should be talked more about as the potential top overall prospect in this class then he is. I know there’s some chatter, but maybe it should be louder. What stands out most to me about Perez is how much better he’s gotten over the past few months. That, combined with his youth, has his arrow pointed up in a major way.

For what it’s worth, I’ve heard from a few different independent sources that are steadfast in their belief that Perez will be the clear best player from this class within three years or less. To say that said reports have helped push me in the recent direction of Perez as a serious candidate to finish in the top spot on my own board would be more than fair. When I think of Perez, I can’t help but draw parallels to Brandon Ingram, freshman star at Duke and sure-fire top two pick in next month’s NBA Draft; more specifically, I think of Perez as the baseball draft version of Ingram (young, indicative of where the game is headed, and the next evolutionary step that can be traced back to a long line of similar yet steadily improving players over the years) when stacked up to Blake Rutherford’s Ben Simmons (both excellent yet perhaps slightly overhyped prospects getting too much love due to physical advantages that won’t always be there). I’m not sure even I buy all of that to the letter (and I lean towards Simmons as the better NBA prospect, so the thing falls apart quickly), but there are certain characteristics that make it fit…and it’s a fun hook.

Also for what it’s worth, I’ve heard from a few friends who are far from sold on Perez the hitter. That’s obviously a fair counterpoint to all of the enthusiasm found in the preceding avalanche of words. Will Perez hit enough to make the kind of impact worthy of the first overall selection? This takes me back to something tangentially related to Kyle Mercer, another potential 1-1 candidate, back in February

It goes back to something I mentioned in the comments section a few weeks back: guys either learn to hit or they don’t. That’s my paraphrased take from this scout’s quote talking about the likelihood of Jahlil Okafor improving his outside shot as a professional: “He needs to become a better shooter and free throw shooter. He either will or he won’t.” Scouts work very hard evaluating amateur and minor league talent across the country, so their collective insight into projecting a young hitter’s future is not to be dismissed. But…can we ever really know how a guy is going to react when thrown into the professional environment? A 95 MPH fastball with movement is a 95 MPH fastball with movement at any level. Plus speed, outstanding glove work, and the ability to miss bats are all translatable skills when honed properly. Hitting is an entirely different animal.

In other words, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. The Perez supporters –myself included, naturally – obviously believe in his bat, but also believe that he won’t necessarily have to hit a ton to be a damn fine player when you factor in his defensive gifts and plus to plus-plus speed. That’s part of what makes drafting a highly athletic shortstop prospect with tons of youth on his side so appealing. Even if the bat doesn’t fulfill all your hopes and dreams, the chances you walk away with at least something is high…or at least higher than at any other position. It gives players like Perez a deceptively high floor. I’ll annoyingly repeat what I said about Rodgers here one more time…

That’s a player worthy of going 1-1 if it all clicks, but there’s enough risk in the overall package that I’m not willing to call him the best player in this class. Second best, maybe. Third best, likely.

That’s what I said last year about Rodgers before eventually ranking him third overall in his class. I have similar thoughts about Perez, but now I’m reconsidering the logic in hedging on putting him anywhere but first overall. A sky high ceiling if he hits and a reasonably realistic useful big league floor if he doesn’t makes him hard to pass on, especially in a class with so few potential stars at the top. He’s blown past Oscar Mercado and Jalen Miller, and now shares a lot of the same traits that have made Francisco Lindor a future star. I don’t see Perez as the type of player you get fired for taking high, but rather the kind of player that has ownership looking at you funny for passing up after he makes it big. All that for a guy who nobody can say with compelling certainty will ever hit. I love the draft.

Carter Kieboom was with the third base prospects in my notes up until about a month or so ago. The buzz on him being good enough to stick at shortstop for at least a few years grew too loud to ignore. In fact, said buzz reminds me quite a bit about how the slow yet steady drumbeat for Alex Bregman, Shortstop grew throughout the spring last season. Beyond the defensive comparison, I think there’s actually a little something to looking at Kieboom developing as a potential Bregman type impact bat over the next few seasons. He checks every box you’d want to see out of a high school infielder: hit (above-average), power (above-average raw), bat speed (yes), approach (mature beyond his years), athleticism (well above-average), speed (average), glove (average at short, could be better yet at third), and arm (average to above-average, more than enough for the left side). He’d be neck and neck with Drew Mendoza for third place on my third base list, but he gets the bump to second here with the shortstops. At either spot, he’s a definite first round talent for me.

Falling behind Perez and Kieboom are names like Gavin Lux, Grae Kessinger, Nonie Williams, and Nicholas Quintana. I’m not sure there’s a bad way to rank those guys at this point. Lux is a really intriguing young hitter with the chance to come out of this draft as arguably the best all-around hitter (contact, pop, patience) in this high school class. That may be a bit rich, but I’d at least say his straight hit tool ranks only below Mickey Moniak, Carlos Cortes, and Joe Rizzo. If his bat plays above-average in all three phases – he could/should be there with contact and approach while his raw power floats somewhere in that average to above-average range – then he’d certainly be in the mix. A fun name that I’ve heard on Lux that may or may not have been influenced by geography: a bigger, stronger Scooter Gennett. Here’s some of what Baseball America had on Gennett in his draft year…

He profiles as an offensive second baseman, while Florida State intends for him to start at shortstop as a freshman. He’s a grinder with surprising power and bat speed for his size (a listed 5-foot-10, 170 pounds), and though he can be streaky, his bat is his best tool. He’s a better runner on the field than in showcase events, but he’s closer to average than above-average in that department. Defensively he gets the most of his ability, with his range and arm better suited for the right side of the infield than the left. He’s agile, though, and a solid athlete. Gennett would be a crucial get for Florida State, if he gets there. Most scouts consider him a third-to-fifth round talent.

A bigger, stronger, and arguably better (especially when likelihood to stick at short is factored in) Gennett feels about right, both in terms of draft stock (second to fourth round talent, maybe with a shot to sneak into the late first) and potential pro outcome. It should be noted that Lux’s defensive future is somewhat in flux. I think he’s athletic enough with enough arm to stick at short for a while, but there are many others who think he’s got second base written all over him. A lot of that likely has to do with his arm – it’s looked strong to me with a really quick release, but there’s debate on that – so I’d bet that there’s little consensus from team to team about his long-term position. Teams that like him to pick him high in the draft will like him best as a shortstop, so it’s my hunch that he’ll at least get a shot to play in the six-spot as a pro to begin his career.

I really like Kessinger’s hands, range, and first step actions at short. He’s just a half-step behind Perez – if that – defensively. Offensively he’s more athlete with bat speed than finished product, but you could do a lot worse than what he gives you as a starting point. Williams matches Kessinger’s athleticism, speed (both of the bat and foot variety), and defensive upside, but the latter area is where Kessinger’s present value trumps where Williams is currently at. Williams could get there, but Kessinger has the head start. Many have slid Williams to center field on their boards, but he’s come on fast as an infielder since his inconsistent showing in the dirt this past summer. The defensive gap between Kessinger and Williams is potentially made up by the advantage that Williams has shown in the power department. He’s currently more physical than Kessinger with a swing geared toward more natural pop. Two similarly talented players with just enough differences to keep things interesting; I like Kessinger by a hair, but that could flip by June.

I’m running out of time, but I’m still not quite sure what to feel about Quintana as a prospect. I like him a lot, but I’m not quite sure yet how high “a lot” will get him on the board. Though most I talked to saw him moving off of shortstop sooner rather than later – second, third, and even catcher were mentioned as long-term spots for him – I kind of like the strong armed righthander to stick at short for the foreseeable future. Offensively, I believe. Quintana can hit and hit for power. If his approach comes around, then defensive questions won’t loom quite as large.

Jose Miranda is a particularly well-rounded shortstop with a strong hit tool, solid approach, and reliable hands. Grant Bodison is a little older than his peers, but with a plus arm, plus speed, and an average or better shot to stick at shortstop, he’s a fine prospect. His approach as a hitter has always stood out as particularly intriguing, so I’m more willing to overlook the extra few month lead he has on much of his current competition than I might be otherwise. Hudson Sanchez, a righthanded bat with some thump out of Texas, is on the opposite side of the age spectrum as one of this class’s youngest prospects. Though not quite the same prospect, it’s worth keeping in mind that Sanchez is just a few weeks behind Perez. Only one team will get Perez in the first round, so the value of nabbing players like Kieboom (second if you’re very lucky), Lux (same), and then one or more of Kessinger, Williams, Quintana, Jaxon Williams, Miranda, Bodison, Hamilton, Sanchez, Francisco Thomas, Cam Shepherd, and Alexis Torres (all third round or later) will certainly be on the forefront of twenty-nine other teams’ minds in this upcoming draft.

*****

SS Anthony Prato (Poly Prep Country Day School, New York)
SS Austin Masel (Belmont Hill HS, Massachusetts)
SS Austyn Tengan (Cypress HS, California)
SS Brady Whalen (Union HS, Washington)
SS Branden Fryman (Tate HS, Florida)
SS Brandon Chinea (Florida Christian HS, Florida)
SS Brandon Hauswald (University School of Jackson, Tennessee)
SS Brian Rey (Deltona HS, Florida)
SS Cameron Cannon (Mountain Ridge HS, Arizona)
SS Camryn Williams (Gaither HS, Florida)
SS Carter Aldrete (Montery HS, California)
SS Cayman Richardson (Hanover HS, Virginia)
SS David Hamilton (San Marcos HS, Texas)
SS Delvin Perez (International Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
SS Duncan Pence (Farragut HS, Tennessee)
SS Francisco Thomas (Osceloa HS, Puerto Rico)
SS Grae Kessinger (Oxford HS, Mississippi)
SS Grant Bodison (Mauldin HS, South Carolina)
SS Grant Little (Midland Christian HS, Texas)
SS Hunter Lessard (Sunrise Mountain HS, Arizona)
SS Jeremy Houston (Mt Carmel HS, Illinois)
SS Kevin Rolon (PR Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
SS Kevin Welsh (Northern Burlington HS, New Jersey)
SS Logan Davidson (Providence HS, North Carolina)
SS Matthew Rule (Kearney HS, Missouri)
SS Mitchell Golden (Marietta HS, Georgia)
SS Nicholas Novak (Stillwater HS, Minnesota)
SS Nick Derr (Sarasota Community HS, Florida)
SS Nonie Williams (Turner HS, Kansas)
SS Palmer Ford (Virgil Grissom HS, Alabama)
SS Peter Hutzal (Ernest Manning SS, Alberta)
SS Ryan Layne (West Jessamine HS, Kentucky)
SS Sal Gozzo (Sheehan HS, Connecticut)
SS Samad Taylor (Corona HS, California)
SS Tyler Roeder (Jefferson HS, Iowa)
SS Zachary Watson (West Ouachita HS, Louisiana)
SS/2B Alexis Torres (PR Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
SS/2B Cam Shepherd (Peachtree Ridge HS, Georgia)
SS/2B Gavin Lux (Indian Trail Academy, Wisconsin)
SS/2B Jakob Newton (Oakville Trafalgar SS, Ontario)
SS/2B Nicholas Quintana (Arbor View HS, Nevada)
SS/2B Will Brooks (Madison Central HS, Mississippi)
SS/3B Carter Kieboom (Walton HS, Georgia)
SS/3B Hudson Sanchez (Southlake Carroll HS, Texas)
SS/3B Jose Miranda (PR Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
SS/3B Josh Hollifield (Weddington HS, North Carolina)
SS/CF Jaxon Williams (BF Terry HS, Texas)
SS/OF DeShawn Lookout (Westmoore HS, Oklahoma)
SS/OF Jaylon McLaughlin (Santa Monica HS, California)
SS/RHP Quincy McAfee (Westside HS, Texas)
SS/RHP Will Proctor (Mira Costa HS, California)

2016 MLB Draft – High School Second Basemen

The average draft placement of the first high school second base prospect off the board since I’ve been running this site has been pick 200. Forgive me for rounding up — it’s actually 199.5 — but Major League Baseball currently doesn’t allow teams to select a player only halfway. I’m not a big draft trend guy, but that seems worth noting. Even if we get rid of the outlier that was last year (Cobie Vance at 484), the average first pick only moves down to 152. LeVon Washington (30 in 2009) and Forrest Wall (35 in 2014), the only top fifty picks in the group, represent the lows and the highs that come with taking a prep second baseman early…and Wall, much as I like him, has a long way between where his and the big leagues.

While Washington and Wall may have been drafted high, neither has yet made it to the top level. We have to go back to 2008 to find the last drafted and signed high school positive value big league player with LJ Hoes (pick 81) and his career 0.1 rWAR. Then there’s Blake DeWitt (pick 28 in 2004), Travis Denker (pick 631 in 2003), Josh Barfield (pick 120 in 2001), and Nate McLouth (pick 749 in 2000), though McLouth’s one whole game in the Sally League at second base means he’s in on more of a technicality than anything else. Interesting to note that Hoes, DeWitt, and Barfield were the first overall prep second base prospect off the board. That will go down as some support for the idea that it’s a one and done position in terms of prospect depth.

So on one hand, history has been predictably unkind to high school second basemen. On the other hand, maybe this will be the year! The bar is awfully low after all. I’d argue that the best trio of prospects in any year since I’ve covered the draft was 2014’s first three 2B off the board: Forrest Wall, Shane Mardirosian, and Luke Dykstra. That’s very much propped up by Wall, the best second base prospect drafted since…DeWitt, I guess? Revisionist history would say Jose Vidro in 1992 and/or Ray Durham in 1990, sixth and fifth round picks respectively. It’s a minor cheat to include them because of how far they fell, but at least they were the first prep second basemen off the board in their draft years. I wouldn’t put any one of Carlos Cortes, Morgan McCullough, or Cole Stobbe on the same level of Wall in 2014, but on the whole it might be the best trio since I’ve started in 2009.

Some love Cortes’s hit tool. Others like it way less. That’s the unique brand of analysis you can only get here. Count me in as part of the group who strongly believes in Cortes as a hitter. I wanted to add more to back up that claim, but turns out I only would have plagiarized myself. Here’s most of what I wanted to say now from five months ago…

I know I can get a little weird with wanting to look back at previous years when I’m supposed to be talking about the draft to come, so, finally, we’re back to the present day. A comp that isn’t a comp that I can’t shake is Carlos Cortes as the next Forrest Wall. Stylistically, it doesn’t work: the two are very different athletes with different bodies and different levels of defensive aptitude. As hitters, however, I think they bring a lot of the same good stuff to the table. Wall went higher (35th) than all but one HS 2B (LeVon Washington in 2009) since I started the site. I think Cortes can top that in 2016. The other player frequently compared to Cortes is Kolten Wong. Wong went 22nd overall to the Cardinals in 2011. That might be his draft ceiling, but it’s a pretty darn nice one.

I’m not a scout, but I’ve seen enough of Cortes to feel comfortable with sharing my general observations about him with those who are. “Boy, that Cortes sure can hit,” I’d say with confidence. “I’m no scout (note: I say this a lot in these chats), but if that’s not a potential plus hit tool then I’m not sure I know what one is,” I’d continue. Picture this all said with supreme confidence. How can you watch a guy like Cortes and not come away loving his bat? The swing works, there’s tons of bat speed, he’s strong enough to punish mistakes (above-average raw power?), and I’m not sure I saw him take a bad plate appearance all summer. As somebody who is constantly preaching about the importance of having a plan of attack with every at bat, that last part really resonated with me. I was so ready for everybody to agree with me and bask in the glow of the “attaboys” I so richly deserved.

Well, it didn’t happen. To say that others like Cortes’ hit tool way less than I do (and I’m not special, by the way: lots of smarter internet folk than I love Cortes’ bat) is an understatement. That’s not a universal belief – few draft thoughts are, especially in December – but what I had figured to be one of the draft’s best singular tools is a bit more of a divisive topic than expected. So if you come here seeking the value of the majority, then think of Cortes as a wait-and-see early round pick. If you’re here for my own amateur opinion, then start printing those “Carlos Cortes: First Day MLB Draft Pick” memorabilia t-shirts now.

(This analysis lacks nuance as it only focuses on Cortes’ hit tool. One could like his hit tool a lot and still view him as a tough player to profile because of his unique defensive skill set. Some might see him as a future utility player who projects as a tweener without a true position. Others could view him as a wait-and-see prospect not because of his bat but because of the hope he can play behind the plate at the next level. He’s a tough guy to judge even before you factor in the varied opinions about his bat. Fun player to track and evaluate, though.)

In almost any other year (and in many other lists that don’t include Cortes with the second base prospects), Morgan McCullough would be a fine choice for the top spot. He can run, defend, and, most importantly, hit. If it all works he’s a regular at second for a long time, though all of the “there is no such thing as a teenage second base prospect” caveats apply. As much as I like McCullough – and I really do, honest – he strikes me as the kind of guy who falls below where he should go and winds up having to prove himself to pro guys all over again in college. I hope I’m wrong. Will Proctor and Cole Stobbe both might interest teams as potential shortstops at the highest level. Alexander Santos is one of the many New Jersey products in this year’s class with a shot to go in the top ten rounds and make an impact on pro ball. In what might be one of those draft quirks that only interests me, there is or will be a New Jersey prospect on each of these early HS lists except first base.

That covered a lot, but, wait, there’s more!

I worry a little about there being too much swing-and-miss in Stobbe’s game to fully take advantage of his offensive gifts against better competition, but at his best he’s been a guy who has gotten very intriguing Brian Dozier comps. Tyler Fitzgerald has gotten strong reviews for improvements he’s made as a hitter all spring. His defense hasn’t quite gotten the same love, but he’s got the athleticism and an average arm to potentially handle center field if a move out of the infield is necessary. He’ll be ranked highly enough in this space to make going pro a viable option if he’s picked where I think his talent warrants, but I do wonder how many rounds he could boost his draft stock if he decided to enroll at Louisville instead. I still like Alex Santos as an advanced bat who can hang up the middle defensively. I also like that Santos, like Fitzgerald, still has some room on his frame to pack on a few more good pounds and start moving more doubles over the wall for homers.

My tentative ranking here would go Cortes, McCullough, Stobbe, Fitzgerald, and Santos. Then Michael Feliz and Shane Martinez followed by the rest.

2B Alex Brewer (Forrest HS, Tennessee)
2B Ben Baird (Agoura HS, California)
2B Cody Oerther (The First Academy, Florida)
2B Morgan McCullough (West Seattle HS, Washington)
2B Nathan Blakeney (Wesleyan Christian Academy, North Carolina)
2B Parker McCoy (Walton HS, Georgia)
2B Ryan Reynolds (Ouachita Christian HS, Louisiana)
2B Tyler Malone (Woodcreek HS, California)
2B/3B Michael Feliz (IMG Academy, Florida)
2B/3B Riley King (Collins Hill HS, Texas)
2B/OF Austin Todd (Round Rock HS, Texas)
2B/OF Carlos Cortes (Oviedo HS, Florida)
2B/RHP Breonn Pooler (Sparkman HS, Alabama)
2B/SS Alex Santos (Don Bosco Prep, New Jersey)
2B/SS Austin Wilhite (Buford HS, Georgia)
2B/SS Brigham Mooney (Blue Springs South HS, Missouri)
2B/SS Cole Stobbe (Millard West HS, Nebraska)
2B/SS Jean Carlos Correa Oppenheimer (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
2B/SS Kobe Lopez (Archbishop Edward McCarthy HS, Florida)
2B/SS Logan Goodnight (Linsly HS, West Virginia)
2B/SS Paul Benitez (Lake Nona HS, Florida)
2B/SS Shane Martinez (John North HS, California)
2B/SS Tyler Fitzgerald (Rochester HS, Illinois)

2016 MLB Draft – High School First Basemen

Prep rankings are close to being finalized, but I’m trying to hang on to the last possible second to allow for any last minute pop-up guys ready to crash the party a place on the list. For now, a true follow list only of all the high school first base prospects that have caught my attention for one reason or another this draft cycle.

List is alphabetical, so obviously don’t infer anything from the rankings. It would be pretty cool if the rankings just so happened to be alphabetical, though. That would be some kind of coincidence.

Who am I missing? Did I mess up the spelling of a player’s name and/or botch his high school listing? And how stupid am I for daring to rank the J’s over the L’s? Let me know in the comments, on Twitter, or via email. The more the merrier even at this late stage.

*****

DID YOU KNOW that drafting HS first basemen is stupid? Well, stupid is unduly harsh, so let’s say…problematic. Before we go any further, I should point out that I don’t necessarily agree with that conclusion – I’m actively disagreeing with my own conclusion, so, yeah, great start to this piece – because I think every player should be judged individually and historical draft trends aren’t particularly predictive in nature, but, damn, high school first basemen have been a poor investment so far this millennium. Since I started this site in 2009, there have literally been ZERO positive value first basemen drafted and signed out of high school. Only two have made the big leagues: Christian Yelich and Jonathan Singleton. Now obviously the former name has been pretty darn valuable, but that’s a clear cheat. Despite being announced as a first baseman on draft day, everybody knew he was an outfielder. He’s gone on to play exactly zero innings at first so far as a professional. So the only other big league first baseman drafted and signed out of high school is Jonathan Singleton, a negative value player to date by both rWAR and fWAR. Ouch.

The best hopes to reverse that trend are (in whatever order you like) Josh Naylor, Bobby Bradley, Josh Ockimey, Dominic Smith, Cody Bellinger, Jake Bauers, Matt Olson, Dan Vogelbach, and, because I still believe, a Jonathan Singleton rebound. I’d also add Kolton Kendrick to the list, but he’s admittedly a long way off. All in all we have lots of nice prospects, but no one player that you can point to as a future long-term regular at first with a high degree of confidence. Smith is the most likely future regular in my view (best all-around game), Ockimey has been scorching to start 2016, and Vogelbach just needs a place to play because he can really fucking hit. Maybe one or more of these prospects redeems the position. We’ll have to wait and see.

Anyway, if we expand the hunt for high school first basemen all the way back to 2000 — same year I started high school myself, incidentally — the list adds some pretty impressive names. Of course, we’re talking quality over quantity here as there are still very few names considering we’re now covering sixteen drafts. Going from most recent to least, we add Eric Hosmer, Giancarlo Stanton (another cheat with no innings at 1B as a pro), Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Logan Morrison, Mike Carp, Kyle Blanks, Prince Fielder, James Loney, Travis Ishikawa, Casey Kotchman, and Adrian Gonzalez. Those are your positive value drafted and signed high school first basemen since 2000. If we’re being real, the list reads Hosmer, Freeman, Rizzo, Fielder, and Gonzalez. Five stars in sixteen drafts isn’t a great hit rate (obviously), but the magnitude of their stardom is pretty impressive. Maybe that can be our amended conclusion about drafting high school first basemen: odds are very much stacked against you historically, but if you find a winner then you’ve really found a winner. The grand total of positive value professional first basemen drafted and signed out of high school since 2000 is ten, though you can bump that to an even dozen if you want to include both Marlins outfielders. Taking the wide view on high school first basemen helps ease my mind somewhat about the utility of such prospects. I do wonder what’s changed (if anything: this could just be a function of needing more patience with the post-2009 group), but that’s a different post for a different day.

The original intent of this post was to actually talk about the high school first base prospects eligible for the 2016 MLB Draft. I suppose it’s time to actually do that. But before we do, here’s this…

2015: Josh Naylor (1), Corey Zangari (6), Kolton Kendrick (8), Seamus Curran (8), Curtis Terry (13)

2014: Bobby Bradley (3), Josh Ockimey (5), Dash Winningham (8), Justin Bellinger (11), Owen Taylor (27)

2013: Dominic Smith (1), Cody Bellinger (4), Jake Bauers (7), David Denson (15), Randolph Gassaway (16)

2012: Matt Olson (1s), Keon Barnum (1s), Justin Chigbogu (4), Nick Halamandaris (8), Kristian Brito (11)

2011: Dan Vogelbach (2), Kevin Cron (3), Trevor Gretzky (7), Bubba Jones (7), John Alexander (8)

2010: Christian Yelich (1), Travis Flores (11), Tyler Kuresa (11), Juan Rosado (11), Sean Dwyer (15)

2009: Jeff Malm (5), Jon Singleton (8), Geoffrey Baldwin (10), Corey Davis (15), David Washington (15)

Those are the first five high school first basemen (round in parentheses) drafted every year since the site started. I bring this up because I think 2016 has a good chance of having the most impressive top five out of all of those years. 2013 will be hard to beat – again, let’s assume we’re putting Yelich’s contributions from the 2010 group aside for now – and there are names in 2011, 2014, and 2015 that could do big things, but I really like what 2016 could be. Of course, any such high school position ranking low on the defensive totem pole needs to come with the caveat that players at certain spots on the diamond (1B, corner OF, sometimes 2B) are made and not born. Players from other positions eventually become first basemen. As long as we all know that going in, we’re good. There are a lot of reasons not to be excited about high school first base prospects, but that shouldn’t stop us from giving each individual player his own evaluation. It’s a little bit like how one can believe that man is evil while individual men can be good. Or something like that. Anyway, I like these guys. Let’s talk about them.

The first name on the original list was Christian Jones. It’s now just a few weeks away from the draft and I still like Jones as much as I did back then. The only glaring negative that I see with the young lefty from Washington right now is the fact he’s never eaten a hamburger. I can kind of see the hot dog thing – I love them, but get why one might want to avoid them – but the hamburger (cheeseburger, ideally) is one of mankind’s finest culinary achievements. Thankfully, Jones earns points back for his love of seafood…and his excellent athleticism, easy above-average raw power, and consistent ability to square balls up and rocket line drives to all fields. The only trepidation I have with Jones being on this list is the growing likelihood that he can move well enough to handle left field. Everything about his offensive and athletic profile points towards future big league regular.

With all that said, I think Jones would fall just behind a new addition to the first base ranks. Joe Rizzo, the man without a position, slides into the top spot here at first base. My strong hunch is that whatever team drafts him early will do so with the idea to play him at a more demanding defensive spot – could be third, could be second, could even be behind the plate – but eventually he’ll settle in as a professional first baseman. Offensively, I’ve gotten a Don Mattingly comp on him that I obviously find intriguing. The better comp, however, is one that takes a little getting used to. If I had to type up an anonymous scout quote to back it up, it might sound like this: “Well, I don’t like the body, but he can really swing it. Some guys just have a knack for hitting it hard every time, and Rizzo is one of ‘em. Pretty swing, above-average to plus power, and more athletic than he looks. Can probably fake it elsewhere on the diamond, but I’d stick him at first and just have him focus on piling up hits. Reminds me of a young John Kruk.” So there you have it. The anonymous scout that I made up has put a young John Kruk comp out there. Nice work, anonymous scout. I like it.

(It’s also worth pointing out that an actual scout – i.e., not one that is actually me in disguise – mentioned Bobby Bradley as a recent draft comp for Rizzo. I don’t hate it!)

Ulysses Cantu is Joe Rizzo’s mirror image. Almost everything written above about the lefthanded Rizzo applies to righty swinging Cantu. I’m even less bullish on Cantu sticking anywhere but first base as a professional, so the pressure will be on for him to hit early and often upon signing his first contract. I see a little less hit tool, similar power, and an arguably better (trying to sort this out in limited PA for HS hitters is damn near impossible) approach. I think all that adds up to an overall offensive edge for Rizzo, but it’s really close.

If we’re going to pair Rizzo and Cantu together, then why not do the same for Christian Jones and Walker Robbins? The two lefthanded bats have very similar offensive ceilings. In a fun twist, Robbins, a legitimate pitching prospect with a fastball that ranges from 87-92 MPH, takes the place of Joey Wentz in this updated top five. Wentz, as many know, is a lefthanded pitching prospect all the way, but that wasn’t always the case. There were some fools (e.g., me) who thought his pro future would come as a slugging first baseman. Maybe there are some out there that think of Robbins more as a pitcher – I haven’t talked to any, but I’ve learned not to make assumptions with low-90s lefties – but at this point I’m pretty comfortable with him as a single-digit round hitting prospect. That’s some nice prospect symmetry right there.

Anyway, much like Jones, Robbins can hit. His power is real, he’s an excellent athlete, and he’s right around average with most of his run times. Also like Jones, the only real question I have with Robbins being where he is on this list is whether or not a pro team will challenge him with some outfield work after signing. I’d be fine with that, obviously – he can run, he can throw, and it’s not my money – but it would be kind of a shame to not have him play first base at the next level. I haven’t personally seen all of the players listed below, but of the ones I have, he’s easily the most impressive defender at first. It’s not the same as being a plus defender at catcher, center, or short, but it’s not nothing.

I know some who prefer TJ Collett to Joe Rizzo. I can see it. I’ve recently become quite enamored with Collett’s offensive game. If you read the site regularly, you know how much I like Zack Collins of Miami. I get a lot of the same positive vibes when watching (and reading/hearing about) Collett. I don’t think a team would be crazy to use a late first round pick on him, but odds are very good that they won’t have to. Getting him at any point past the first hundred picks or so would be great value.

I think my tentative rankings here are a little less tentative than in other spots. The only major changes I can foresee would be based on shuffling guys in and out based on late developing defensive switch information. I’d go Rizzo, Jones, Collett, Cantu, Robbins, Andrew Daschbach, Bryant Packard, Dylan Carlson, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Spencer Brickhouse in the top ten. The first five I feel pretty good about. The next three after that are all really close. I almost put Carlson with the outfielders just to avoid making any kind of decision, tentative or not, on him now; he’s another player like Robbins who has gone the opposite of Wentz (lefthanded pitcher early in the process to first base/outfield prospect now). Then there’s a bit of a drop after the top eight. All in all, a pretty good group worth getting excited about…even in the face of overwhelming odds.

(By the way, further research directed me to this. I now take it all back with Jones and his views on hamburgers and hot dogs. For those unwilling to click a link to learn more about a teenager baseball player’s culinary quirks, the article notes that Jones has avoided both burgers and dogs due to his belief that there is “too much going on” between the buns. That’s amazing. I’m prepared to move him up fifty spots on my board for that alone.)

1B Andru Summerall (Lake Park HS, Florida)
1B Bernard Gilot (The First Academy, Florida)
1B Bryant Packard (DH Conley HS, North Carolina)
1B Cole Zabowski (Lawrenceville HS, Georgia)
1B Cuba Bess (Fruita Monument HS, Colorado)
1B Easton Bents (Grants Pass HS, Oregon)
1B Jaquez Williams (East Coweta HS, Georgia)
1B Lael Lockhart (Friendswood HS, Texas)
1B Spencer Brickhouse (Zebulon HS, North Carolina)
1B Zach Zientarski (Boca Raton Community HS, Florida)
1B/3B Andrew Daschbach (Sacred Heart Prep, California)
1B/3B Joe Rizzo (Oakton HS, Virginia)
1B/C TJ Collett (Terre Haute North Vigo HS, Indiana)
1B/LHP Dylan Carlson (Elk Grove HS, California)
1B/LHP Vinnie Pasquantino (James River HS, Virginia)
1B/LHP Walker Robbins (George County HS, Mississippi)
1B/OF Austin Galindo (University HS, Illinois)
1B/OF Chris Winkel (Amity Regional Senior HS, Connecticut)
1B/OF Christian Jones (Federal Way HS, Washington)
1B/RHP Ulysses Cantu (Boswell HS, Texas)

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