Home » 2016 MLB Draft (Page 5)
Category Archives: 2016 MLB Draft
2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – SEC Pitching
There’s so much talent in the SEC that trying to fit all of their 2016 MLB Draft prospects in one day’s worth of posts doesn’t make sense. The SEC deserves an entire week. To kick things off, a list of the incredibly deep group of pitching — seriously, there are players I legitimately love as prospects ranked down in the 35-40ish range — in the SEC this year…
- Florida JR LHP AJ Puk
- Mississippi State JR RHP Dakota Hudson
- Vanderbilt rSO RHP Jordan Sheffield
- Georgia JR RHP Robert Tyler
- Arkansas JR RHP Zach Jackson
- Florida JR RHP Logan Shore
- South Carolina FR RHP Braden Webb
- Auburn JR RHP Keegan Thompson
- Tennessee JR RHP Kyle Serrano
- Kentucky SR RHP Kyle Cody
- Florida JR RHP Shaun Anderson
- Florida JR RHP Dane Dunning
- Vanderbilt JR LHP Ben Bowden
- LSU SO RHP Austin Bain
- Vanderbilt JR LHP John Kilichowski
- Texas A&M SO RHP Brigham Hill
- Mississippi State JR LHP Daniel Brown
- Kentucky JR RHP Zack Brown
- Texas A&M JR RHP Mark Ecker
- Mississippi State JR RHP Austin Sexton
- Arkansas JR RHP Dominic Taccolini
- Texas A&M JR RHP Ryan Hendrix
- Georgia JR LHP Connor Jones
- Florida rSO LHP Scott Moss
- LSU JR LHP Jared Poche’
- South Carolina JR RHP Wil Crowe
- Texas A&M SR RHP Kyle Simonds
- Texas A&M SO RHP Jace Vines
- Alabama JR RHP Geoffrey Bramblett
- Kentucky SR RHP Dustin Beggs
- Texas A&M SR RHP Andrew Vinson
- Auburn rJR RHP Cole Lipscomb
- Alabama JR LHP Thomas Burrows
- LSU rSO RHP Jesse Stallings
- Mississippi State JR RHP Zac Houston
- Missouri rSR RHP Reggie McClain
- South Carolina JR RHP Taylor Widener
- Mississippi rJR RHP Brady Bramlett
- Vanderbilt JR RHP Hayden Stone
- Alabama rSR RHP Jake Hubbard
- LSU rJR RHP Hunter Newman
- LSU rJR RHP Russell Reynolds
- Mississippi JR RHP Chad Smith
- South Carolina rSO RHP Canaan Cropper
- Auburn JR RHP Gabe Klobosits
- Auburn JR LHP Ben Braymer
- LSU JR RHP Riley Smith
- Mississippi State JR RHP/OF Reid Humphreys
- Mississippi State rSO RHP Jacob Billingsley
- Alabama JR RHP Matt Foster
- LSU JR RHP Alden Cartwright
- Mississippi State JR LHP Vance Tatum
- Florida JR LHP Kirby Snead
- LSU JR RHP Parker Bugg
- Alabama rJR LHP/OF Colton Freeman
- Mississippi rJR RHP Sean Johnson
- Mississippi JR LHP Wyatt Short
- South Carolina JR RHP Matt Vogel
- Alabama JR RHP Nick Eicholtz
- Mississippi State rJR RHP Paul Young
- Texas A&M SR LHP Ty Schlottmann
- Arkansas JR RHP James Teague
- Arkansas JR RHP Cannon Chadwick
- Georgia rSR RHP Heath Holder
- Auburn JR LHP Octavio Rodriguez
- Alabama SR RHP Ray Castillo
- Auburn JR RHP Kevin Davis
- Georgia JR RHP Drew Moody
- Georgia rJR RHP David Gonzalez
- LSU SR LHP John Valek
- Tennessee SR LHP Andy Cox
- Kentucky SR LHP Dylan Dwyer
- Auburn rSR RHP Justin Camp
- Tennessee SR RHP Steven Kane
- South Carolina JR LHP Josh Reagan
- Alabama rSO RHP Tyler Adams
- Tennessee JR RHP Jon Lipinski
- Georgia JR LHP Andrew Gist
- Florida JR RHP Frank Rubio
- Texas A&M SR LHP/OF Blake Kopetsky
- Alabama SR LHP Jon Keller
- Mississippi State JR RHP Blake Smith
- Kentucky JR LHP Logan Salow
- Georgia rJR RHP Austin Wallace
- Missouri rSO RHP Cole Bartlett
- Missouri SR LHP Austin Tribby
- Kentucky rSR RHP Zach Strecker
- LSU JR RHP Collin Strall
- Tennessee JR RHP Hunter Martin
- LSU SR LHP Hunter Devall
- South Carolina JR LHP John Parke
- Arkansas rJR RHP Josh Alberius
- Vanderbilt rSO LHP Ryan Johnson
- Arkansas rSR RHP Doug Willey
2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – ACC (PART TWO)
For Part One, see there. For Part Two, see…here.
Zack Collins over Corey Ray won’t happen on draft day and that’s fine. I’m taking the man who might have the best all-around offensive profile of any amateur hitter in the country if my neck is on the line. That was not intended to rhyme, but we’ll let it stand. I really do like Corey Ray: he can run, he has pop, his approach has taken a major step forward, and he should be able to stick in center for at least the first few years of club control. I mean, you’d be a fool not to like him at this point. But liking him as a potential top ten pick and loving him as a legit 1-1 candidate are two very different things.
I don’t have much to add about all of the good that Ray brings to the field each game. If you’ve made your way here, you already know. Instead of rehashing Ray’s positives, let’s focus on some of his potential weaknesses. In all honesty, the knocks on Ray are fairly benign. His body is closer to maxed-out than most top amateur prospects. His base running success and long-term utility in center field may not always be there as said body thickens up and loses some athleticism. Earlier in the season Andrew Krause of Perfect Game (who is excellent, by the way) noted an unwillingness or inability to pull the ball with authority as often as some might like to see. Some might disagree that a young hitter can be too open to hitting it to all fields – my take: it’s generally a good thing, but, as we’ve all been taught at a young age, all things in moderation – but easy pull-side power will always be something scouts want to see. At times, it appeared Ray was almost fighting it. Finally, Ray’s improved plate discipline, while part of a larger trend in the right direction, could be a sample size and/or physical advantage thing more than a learned skill that can be expected each year going forward. Is he really the player who has drastically upped his BB% while knocking his K%? Or is just a hot hitter using his experience and intimidating presence – everybody knows and fears Corey Ray at the college level – to help goose the numbers? It should also pointed out that Ray’s gaudy start only ranks him seventh on the Louisville team in batting average, fourth in slugging, and ninth in on-base percentage. I’m not sure what that means, but it’s worth noting.
(I mentioned weaknesses I’ve heard, so I think it’s only fair to share my thoughts on what they mean for him going forward. I think he’s a center fielder at least until he hits thirty, so that’s a non-issue for me. The swing thing is interesting, but it’s not something I’m qualified to comment on at this time. And I think the truth about his plate discipline likely falls in between those two theories: I’d lean more towards the changes being real, though maybe not quite as real as they’ve looked on the stat sheet so far this year.)
So what do we have with Ray as we head into June? He’s the rare prospect to get the same comp from two separate sources this spring. Both D1Baseball and Baseball America have dropped a Ray Lankford comp on him. I’ve tried to top that, but I think it’s tough to beat, especially if you look at Lankford’s 162 game average: .272/.364/.477 with 23 HR, 25 SB, and 79 BB/148 K. Diamond Minds has some really cool old scouting reports on Lankford including a few gems from none other than Mike Rizzo if you are under thirty and don’t have as clear a picture of what type of player we’re talking about when we talk about a young Ray Lankford. One non-Lankford comparison that came to mind – besides the old BA comp of Jackie Bradley and alternatives at D1 that include Carlos Gonzalez and Curtis Granderson – was Charlie Blackmon. It’s not perfect and I admittedly went there in part because I saw Blackmon multiple teams at Georgia Tech, but Ray was a harder player than anticipated to find a good comparison for (must-haves: pop, speed, CF defense; bonus points: lefthanded hitter, similar short maxed-out athletic physique, past production similarities) than I initially thought. I think Blackmon hits a lot of the targets with the most notable difference being body type. Here’s a quick draft year comparison…
.396/.469/.564 – 20 BB/21 K – 25/30 SB – 250 AB
.331/.398/.611 – 18 BB/20 K – 31/36 SB – 157 AB
Top is Blackmon’s last year at Georgia Tech, bottom is Corey Ray (so far) in 2016. Here is Blackmon’s 162 game average to date: .287/.334/.435 with 16 HR, 29 SB, and 32 BB/98 K. Something in between Lankford (great physical comp) and Blackmon (better tools comp) could look like this: .280/.350/.450 with 18 HR, 27 SB, and 50 BB/120 K. That could be AJ Pollock at maturity. From his pre-draft report at Baseball America (I’d link to it but BA’s site is so bad that I have to log in and log out almost a half-dozen times any time I want to see old draft reports like this)…
Pollock stands out most for his athleticism and pure hitting ability from the right side. He has a simple approach, a quick bat and strong hands. Scouts do say he’ll have to stop cheating out on his front side and stay back more on pitches in pro ball…He projects as a 30 doubles/15 homers threat in the majors, and he’s a slightly above-average runner who has plus speed once he gets going. Pollock also has good instincts and a solid arm in center field.
Minus the part about the right side, that could easily fit for Ray. For good measure, here’s the Pollock (top) and Ray (bottom) draft year comparison…
.365/.445/.610 – 30 BB/24 K – 21/25 SB – 241 AB
.331/.398/.611 – 18 BB/20 K – 31/36 SB – 157 AB
Not too far off the mark. I’m coming around on Pollock as a potential big league peak comp for Ray. I think there are a lot of shared traits, assuming you’re as open to looking past the difference in handedness as I am. A friend offered Starling Marte, another righthanded bat, as an additional point of reference. I can dig it. Blackmon, Pollock, and Marte have each had above-average offensive seasons while showing the physical ability to man center field and swipe a bunch of bags. I also keep coming back to Odubel Herrera as a comparable talent, but I’m not sure I’m ready to go there just yet. He fits that overall profile, though. A well-rounded up-the-middle defender with above-average upside at the plate and on the bases who has the raw talent to put up a few star seasons in his peak: that’s the hope with Ray. The few red flags laid out above are enough to make that best case scenario less than a certainty than I’d want in a potential 1-1 pick, but his flaws aren’t so damning that the top ten (possibly top five) should be off the table.
So if Ray is worth a potential top five/ten pick, then what does that mean for the player ranked ahead of him? I’m close to out of superlatives for Zack Collins’s bat. If he can catch, he’s a superstar. If he can’t, then he’s still a potential big league power bat capable of hitting in the middle of the championship lineup for the next decade. I realize first basemen aren’t typically sought after at the top of the draft. There are perfectly valid reasons for that. But any time you have the chance at a potential top five bat at any given position, I think it’s all right to bend the rules a little. Positional value is important, but so is premium offensive production. Collins hitting and hitting a lot as a professional is one of the things I’m most sure about in this draft class.
Nick Solak is an outstanding hitter. He can hit any pitch in any count and has shown himself plenty capable of crushing mistakes. His approach is impeccable, his speed above-average, and his defense dependable. I think he’s the best college second baseman in this class. His teammate Blake Tiberi is just as exciting to me. I think there’s a legit plus hit tool there and his athleticism is fantastic for an infielder. Every other physical tool should be at least average. I think Tiberi could be a future big league regular at third. These Louisville hitters are really, really good.
Chris Okey’s play isn’t the cause for his drop in stock, but rather the stellar work of almost every single catcher at the top of this class previously thought to be either slightly ahead of him or behind him. If he’s still a top five college catcher, then maybe he’s fifth. I’d have a hard time putting him ahead of Collins, Matt Thaiss, Logan Ice, and Jake Rogers, so fifth seems like his new draft ceiling. Again, not an indictment of his season per se but merely the reality that others have held serve or passed him by. Meanwhile Preston Palmeiro hasn’t lit the world on fire so much that his stock should rise, but the shallowness of this year’s first base class helps him stay firmly in the top five mix at the position.
Kel Johnson and Willie Abreu are similar prospects who have gone in different directions this spring. Both have massive raw power with massive holes in their swings. Johnson, the “newer” of the two prospects, is seen as the ascending hitter while Abreu, after three long years at Miami, is a victim of prospect fatigue. They make for a fascinating draft day pair.
Ben DeLuzio and Jacob Heyward are like the anti-Johnson/Abreu pair. This year they’ve shown impressive plate discipline while underwhelming in the power department. They have both flashed average or better raw power in the past, so the hope that they will eventually put it all together remains.
There were a few players I thought could do big things before the season that have not done big things this year. That’s about the least eloquent thing I’ve ever written, but you know what I mean. My anticipated breakout for Kyle Fiala has not come. I don’t know what to make of him right now. Nate Mondou’s approach has stepped forward, but his power has fallen back. That’s confusing. And the two Clemson bats I’ve long liked, Weston Wilson and Eli White, still have lots to work on. A little bit of late season magic would do all of these players some good. I’ll be rooting for them.
Meanwhile, Connor Jones, TJ Zeuch, and Zac Gallen are the only names among the elite pitchers in the conference that I think are sure-fire professional starting pitchers over the long haul. I’m bullish on Justin Dunn being able to remain in the rotation and Kyle Funkhouser still has that upside, but that’s about it beyond the obvious names. That sums up the ACC in 2016 pitching for me: few starting pitching locks, tons of relievers, and no real consensus after the top guy…who I actually am less sure about than most.
I’ve gone back and forth on Jones a few times throughout the draft process. For as much as I like him, there’s something about his game doesn’t quite add up just yet. He checks every box you’d want in a near-ML ready starting pitching prospect, but it’s hard to get too excited about a pitcher who has never truly dominated at the college level. My big question about Jones is whether or not he has that second gear that will allow him to consistently put away big league hitters in times of trouble. His stuff is perfectly suited to killing worms; in fact, his sinker, slider, and splitter combination has resulted in an impressive 65.25 GB% in 2016. But he’ll have to miss more bats to be more than a back of the rotation starter at the highest level. His K/9 year-by-year at Virginia: 6.55, 8.77, and 6.79. Those aren’t the kinds of numbers you’d expect out of a guy being talked up in some circles as a potential top ten pick and first college pitcher selected in the draft. This evaluation of Jones is a little bit like the scattered thoughts on Corey Ray shared above in that it highlights how tough it can be when you’re one of the top prospects in the country. Potential top half of the first round prospects get nitpicked in a way that mid-round players never will. Jones, like Ray, is an excellent prospect, but because a) everybody already knows the top two dozen or so “name” draft prospects are excellent and continuously talking about how great they are is tired, and b) the greater investment in top prospects necessitates a more thorough examination of their total game, getting picked apart more than most comes with the territory.
TJ Zeuch has come back from injury seemingly without missing a beat. I’m a big fan of just about everything he does. He’s got the size (6-7, 225), body control, tempo, and temperament to hold up as a starting pitcher for a long time. He’s also got a legit four-pitch mix that allows him to mix and match in ways that routinely leave even good ACC hitters guessing.
Even though North Carolina posts their rosters so late in the winter that I can’t give them a proper preview, I still managed to touch on Zac Gallen some…
It’ll be really interesting to see how high Gallen will rise in the real draft come June. He’s the kind of relatively safe, high-floor starting pitching prospect who either sticks in the rotation for a decade or tops out as a sixth starter better served moving to the bullpen to see if his stuff plays up there. This aggressive (pretend) pick by Boston should point to what side of that debate I side with. Gallen doesn’t do any one thing particularly well — stellar fastball command and a willingness to keep pounding in cutters stand out — but he throws five (FB, cutter, truer SL, CB, CU) pitches for strikes and competes deep into just about every start. There’s serious value in that.
That holds up today. Gallen’s profile seems like the type who gets overlooked during the draft, overlooked in the minors, and overlooked until he’s run through a few big league lineups before people begin to get wise. That’s all entirely anecdotal, but sometimes you’ve got to run with a hunch.
I came very close to putting Justin Dunn in the top spot. If he continues to show that he can hold up as a starting pitcher, then there’s a chance he winds up as the best pitching prospect in this conference by June. I’d love to see a better change-up between now and then as well. I’m pretty sure I’m out of words when it comes to Kyle Funkhouser. I hold out some hope that he’ll be a better pro than college pitcher because his raw stuff at its best is really that good, but there’s just so much inconsistency to his game that I can’t go all-in on him again. Maybe he’s fulfills the promise he showed last year, maybe he winds up more of a consistently inconsistent fifth starter/swingman type, or maybe he’s destined to a life of relief work. I no longer have any clue where his career is heading. I feel liberated.
If either Funkhouser or Dunn winds up in the bullpen over the long haul, they’ll join a whole bunch of other ACC arms who might fit best as late-inning relievers in the pro ranks. Bailey Clark could keep starting, but most of the smarter folk I talk to seem to think he’ll fit best as a closer in the pros. At his best his stuff rivals the best Jones has to offer, but the Virginia righthander’s command edge and less stressful delivery make him the better bet to remain in the rotation. I personally wouldn’t rule out Clark having a long and fruitful career as a starting pitcher, but I’ll concede that the thought of him unleashing his plus to plus-plus fastball (90-96, 98 peak and impossible to square up consistently) over and over again in shorter outings is mighty appealing. Truer relievers like Zack Burdi (who I think I like better than his brother), AJ Bogucki, Bryan Garcia, Spencer Trayner, and Jim Ziemba will all be valued in different ways come draft day, but all have the present ability to be quick movers and early contributors.
I don’t normally say stuff like this, but here we go: I really like how the ACC hitting list came out. If you listen to me about any one specific list this spring, this should probably be the one.
Hitters
- Miami JR C/1B Zack Collins
- Louisville JR OF Corey Ray
- Virginia JR C Matt Thaiss
- Wake Forest JR 1B/RHP Will Craig
- Louisville JR 2B/OF Nick Solak
- Louisville rSO 3B/SS Blake Tiberi
- Notre Dame JR 2B/3B Cavan Biggio
- Clemson JR C Chris Okey
- North Carolina State JR C/3B Andrew Knizner
- North Carolina JR OF Tyler Ramirez
- North Carolina State JR 1B/OF Preston Palmeiro
- Georgia Tech SO OF/1B Kel Johnson
- Miami JR OF Willie Abreu
- Virginia JR SS/3B Daniel Pinero
- Georgia Tech JR SS Connor Justus
- Florida State JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio
- Miami JR OF Jacob Heyward
- Notre Dame JR 2B/SS Kyle Fiala
- Wake Forest JR 2B/OF Nate Mondou
- Clemson JR 3B/SS Weston Wilson
- Clemson JR SS/2B Eli White
- Wake Forest JR C Ben Breazeale
- North Carolina JR OF Tyler Lynn
- Virginia Tech rJR OF Saige Jenco
- Florida State SR 2B/SS John Sansone
- Florida State JR 1B/C Quincy Nieporte
- Louisville JR C Will Smith
- Louisville JR OF Logan Taylor
- Clemson rSO OF/1B Reed Rohlman
- Miami SR SS Brandon Lopez
- Boston College SR 3B/SS Joe Cronin
- North Carolina JR OF Adam Pate
- Georgia Tech JR OF Ryan Peurifoy
- Georgia Tech JR C Arden Pabst
- Florida State JR C/OF Gage West
- Miami JR 2B/SS Johnny Ruiz
- North Carolina SR SS/2B Eli Sutherland
- Florida State JR SS/2B Matt Henderson
- Georgia Tech JR OF Keenan Innis
- Boston College JR SS/3B Johnny Adams
- Boston College JR C Nick Sciortino
- Duke JR C Cristian Perez
- Notre Dame SR SS Lane Richards
- Georgia Tech SR 3B/SS Matt Gonzalez
- Virginia SR C Robbie Coman
- Wake Forest SR OF/2B Joey Rodriguez
- Notre Dame SR OF/LHP Zac Kutsulis
- Louisville JR OF Colin Lyman
- Duke rJR OF/1B Jalen Phillips
- Notre Dame JR C Ryan Lidge
- North Carolina State SR C Chance Shepard
- Pittsburgh SR OF/LHP Aaron Schnurbusch
- Pittsburgh JR OF Nick Yarnall
- Pittsburgh JR C Caleb Parry
- Notre Dame rSO OF Torii Hunter
- North Carolina State SR 3B/SS Ryne Willard
- Louisville SR 1B/3B Dan Rosenbaum
- Miami rJR 1B/OF Chris Barr
- Clemson rSO 3B Glenn Batson
- Clemson rJR OF Maleeke Gibson
Pitchers
- Virginia JR RHP Connor Jones
- Pittsburgh JR RHP TJ Zeuch
- Boston College JR RHP Justin Dunn
- Duke JR RHP Bailey Clark
- Louisville JR RHP Zack Burdi
- North Carolina JR RHP Zac Gallen
- Louisville SR RHP Kyle Funkhouser
- North Carolina JR RHP AJ Bogucki
- Miami JR RHP Bryan Garcia
- North Carolina JR RHP Spencer Trayner
- Clemson SR RHP Clate Schmidt
- Louisville JR LHP Drew Harrington
- Wake Forest JR RHP Parker Dunshee
- Clemson rSO LHP Alex Bostic
- Duke rSO LHP Jim Ziemba
- Boston College JR RHP Mike King
- Wake Forest SR RHP/C Garrett Kelly
- Virginia JR RHP Alec Bettinger
- North Carolina State JR RHP Joe O’Donnell
- North Carolina State JR LHP Ryan Williamson
- Georgia Tech JR RHP/3B Brandon Gold
- Florida State JR LHP Alec Byrd
- Florida State rSO RHP Ed Voyles
- Florida State rSR RHP Tyler Warmoth
- Clemson rSR RHP Patrick Andrews
- Duke rSO RHP Karl Blum
- Georgia Tech JR RHP Matthew Gorst
- North Carolina SO RHP/1B Ryder Ryan
- Miami SR RHP Enrique Sosa
- North Carolina State rSR RHP Kyle Smith
- Miami JR LHP Danny Garcia
- North Carolina rSR RHP Chris McCue
- Virginia Tech JR RHP Aaron McGarity
- North Carolina State JR RHP Cory Wilder
- Virginia rSO RHP Jack Roberts
- North Carolina State rJR RHP Johnny Piedmonte
- Clemson JR LHP Pat Krall
- Boston College SR LHP Jesse Adams
- Duke rSR RHP Brian McAfee
- North Carolina State SR LHP Will Gilbert
- Louisville JR RHP Jake Sparger
- Georgia Tech rSR RHP Cole Pitts
- Georgia Tech JR RHP Zac Ryan
- Boston College SR RHP John Nicklas
- Georgia Tech SR LHP/OF Jonathan King
- Florida State rJR LHP Alex Diese
- Virginia rJR LHP/OF Kevin Doherty
- Pittsburgh SR RHP Aaron Sandefur
- Florida State rSO RHP Andy Ward
- Wake Forest rSO RHP Chris Farish
- North Carolina State rJR RHP Karl Keglovits
- Virginia Tech JR RHP Luke Scherzer
- Virginia Tech rSO RHP Ryan Lauria
- North Carolina State rSR LHP Travis Orwig
- North Carolina JR LHP Zach Rice
- Notre Dame SR RHP David Hearne
- Miami rSO RHP Andy Honiotes
- Florida State rSO RHP Taylor Blatch
- Duke rSR RHP Kellen Urbon
- Clemson rSO RHP Drew Moyer
- Clemson rJR RHP Wales Toney
- Clemson rJR RHP/1B Jackson Campana
- North Carolina State rJR LHP Sean Adler
- Wake Forest JR RHP Connor Johnstone
- Florida State rSR RHP Mike Compton
- Duke rSR LHP Trent Swart
- Louisville SR RHP Anthony Kidston
- Wake Forest JR RHP John McCarren
- Virginia JR RHP Tyler Shambora
- Miami SR LHP Thomas Woodrey
- Virginia Tech rJR LHP Kit Scheetz
- Virginia SR LHP David Rosenberger
- Notre Dame JR RHP Ryan Smoyer
- Virginia JR RHP Holden Grounds
- Notre Dame SR LHP Michael Hearne
- Pittsburgh JR RHP Matt Pidich
- Florida State rSO RHP Will Zirzow
- Duke SR LHP Nick Hendrix
- Notre Dame SR RHP Nick McCarty
- Miami JR RHP Cooper Hammond
- Pittsburgh JR RHP Sam Mersing
- North Carolina State rSO LHP Cody Beckman
- Virginia Tech rSR LHP Jon Woodcock
- Georgia Tech JR LHP Ben Parr
- Wake Forest rSR RHP Aaron Fossas
- North Carolina State rSR RHP Chris Williams
Boston College
SR LHP Jesse Adams (2016)
SR RHP John Nicklas (2016)
JR RHP Justin Dunn (2016)
JR RHP Mike King (2016)
JR RHP Bobby Skogsbergh (2016)
SR 3B/SS Joe Cronin (2016)
SR OF Logan Hoggarth (2016)
SR C Stephen Sauter (2016)
JR SS/3B Johnny Adams (2016)
JR C Nick Sciortino (2016)
JR OF/RHP Michael Strem (2016)
SO RHP Brian Rapp (2017)
SO RHP/OF Donovan Casey (2017)
SO 2B/3B Jake Palomaki (2017)
FR RHP Jacob Stevens (2017)
FR C Gian Martellini (2018)
High Priority Follows: Jesse Adams, John Nicklas, Justin Dunn, Mike King, Joe Cronin, Johnny Adams, Nick Sciortino, Michael Strem
Clemson
SR RHP Clate Schmidt (2016)
rSR RHP Patrick Andrews (2016)
rJR RHP Wales Toney (2016)
rJR RHP Garrett Lovorn (2016)
rSO LHP Alex Bostic (2016)
JR LHP Pat Krall (2016)
JR LHP Andrew Towns (2016)
rSO RHP Drew Moyer (2016)
rJR RHP/1B Jackson Campana (2016)
JR C Chris Okey (2016)
JR SS/2B Eli White (2016)
JR 3B/SS Weston Wilson (2016)
rSO OF/1B Reed Rohlman (2016)
rSO 3B Glenn Batson (2016)
rJR OF Maleeke Gibson (2016)
rJR 1B/OF Andrew Cox (2016)
FR LHP Jake Higginbotham (2017)
SO LHP Charlie Barnes (2017)
rFR RHP Alex Eubanks (2017)
SO RHP Paul Campbell (2017)
SO 3B/2B Adam Renwick (2017)
SO OF Chase Pinder (2017)
rFR OF KJ Bryant (2017)
SO SS Grayson Byrd (2017)
SO OF Drew Wharton (2017)
SO C Robert Jolly (2017)
SO C/1B Chris Williams (2017)
FR RHP Ryley Gilliam (2018)
FR RHP Zach Goodman (2018)
FR RHP Graham Lawson (2018)
FR RHP/1B Brooks Crawford (2018)
FR RHP Tom Walker (2018)
FR RHP Andrew Papp (2018)
FR C Jordan Greene (2018)
FR SS/2B Grant Cox (2018)
FR OF Seth Beer (2018)
High Priority Follows: Clate Schmidt, Patrick Andrews, Wales Toney, Alex Bostic, Pat Krall, Drew Moyer, Jackson Campana, Chris Okey, Eli White, Weston Wilson, Reed Rohlman, Glenn Batson, Maleeke Gibson
Duke
JR RHP Bailey Clark (2016)
rSO RHP Karl Blum (2016)
rSO LHP Jim Ziemba (2016)
rSR RHP Brian McAfee (2016)
SR LHP Nick Hendrix (2016)
rSR RHP Conner Stevens (2016)
JR LHP Kevin Lewallyn (2016)
rSR LHP Trent Swart (2016)
rSR RHP Kellen Urbon (2016)
rJR OF/1B Jalen Phillips (2016)
JR C Cristian Perez (2016)
SO LHP Chris McGrath (2017)
SO LHP Mitch Stallings (2017)
SO RHP/SS Ryan Day (2017)
SO 3B/RHP Jack Labosky (2017)
SO 1B Justin Bellinger (2017)
SO 3B/SS Max Miller (2017)
SO 2B/OF Peter Zyla (2017)
SO OF Michael Smicicklas (2017)
SO OF Evan Dougherty (2017)
FR RHP Al Pesto (2018)
FR OF Keyston Fuller (2018)
FR OF Kennie Taylor (2018)
FR OF Jimmy Herron (2018)
FR SS Zack Kone (2018)
FR SS Zack Kesterson (2018)
FR OF Griffin Conine (2018)
High Priority Follows: Bailey Clark, Karl Blum, Jim Ziemba, Brian McAfee, Nick Hendrix, Conner Stevens, Trent Swart, Kellen Urbon, Jalen Phillips, Cristian Perez
Florida State
rSR RHP Mike Compton (2016)
rJR LHP Alex Diese (2016)
rSO RHP Taylor Blatch (2016)
JR LHP Alec Byrd (2016)
rSO RHP Andy Ward (2016)
rSO RHP Ed Voyles (2016)
JR RHP Jim Voyles (2016)
rSO RHP Will Zirzow (2016)
rSR LHP Matt Kinney (2016)
rSR RHP Tyler Warmoth (2016)
JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio (2016)
JR 1B/C Quincy Nieporte (2016)
SR 2B/SS John Sansone (2016)
JR C/OF Gage West (2016)
JR 1B/OF Hank Truluck (2016)
JR SS/2B Matt Henderson (2016)
JR C Bryan Bussey (2016)
FR LHP/OF Tyler Holton (2017)
SO RHP Cobi Johnson (2017)
rFR RHP Andrew Karp (2017)
SO RHP Drew Carlton (2017)
SO OF/RHP Steven Wells (2017)
SO C/1B Darren Miller (2017)
SO SS/3B Dylan Busby (2017)
SO SS/2B Taylor Walls (2017)
FR RHP Cole Sands (2018)
FR LHP Jared Middleton (2018)
FR RHP Chase Haney (2018)
FR RHP Ronnie Ramirez (2018)
FR RHP Dillon Brown (2018)
FR C Caleb Raleigh (2018)
FR C/OF Jackson Lueck (2018)
FR OF Donovan Petrey (2018)
High Priority Follows: Mike Compton, Alex Diese, Taylor Blatch, Alec Byrd, Andy Ward, Ed Voyles, Jim Voyles, Will Zirzow, Matt Kinney, Tyler Warmoth, Ben DeLuzio, Quincy Nieporte, John Sansome, Gage West, Hank Truluck, Matt Henderson
Georgia Tech
JR LHP Ben Parr (2016)
JR RHP Matthew Gorst (2016)
SR LHP/OF Jonathan King (2016)
JR RHP/3B Brandon Gold (2016)
JR RHP Zac Ryan (2016)
rSR RHP Cole Pitts (2016)
JR LHP Tanner Shelton (2016)
JR RHP Matt Phillips (2016)
SO OF/1B Kel Johnson (2016)
JR OF Keenan Innis (2016)
JR OF Ryan Peurifoy (2016)
JR C Arden Pabst (2016)
JR SS Connor Justus (2016)
SR 3B/SS Matt Gonzalez (2016)
SO RHP Patrick Wiseman (2017)
SO 2B Wade Bailey (2017)
SO 3B/C Trevor Graport (2017)
FR RHP Jonathan Hughes (2018)
FR RHP Tristin English (2018)
FR RHP Bobby Gavreau (2018)
FR RHP Keyton Gibson (2018)
FR RHP Jake Lee (2018)
FR RHP Micah Carpenter (2018)
FR RHP Burton Dulaney (2018)
FR C Joey Bart (2018)
FR OF/1B Brandt Stallings (2018)
FR 2B/SS Carter Hall (2018)
FR 2B/SS Jackson Webb (2018)
High Priority Follows: Ben Parr, Matthew Gorst, Jonathan King, Brandon Gold, Zac Ryan, Cole Pitts, Kel Johnson, Keenan Innis, Ryan Peurifoy, Arden Pabst, Connor Justus, Matt Gonzalez
Louisville
SR RHP Kyle Funkhouser (2016)
JR RHP Zack Burdi (2016)
JR LHP Drew Harrington (2016)
SR RHP Anthony Kidston (2016)
JR RHP Jake Sparger (2016)
rSR RHP Ryan Smith (2016)
JR RHP Shane Hummel (2016)
JR OF Corey Ray (2016)
rSO 3B/SS Blake Tiberi (2016)
JR 2B/OF Nick Solak (2016)
JR OF Logan Taylor (2016)
JR OF Colin Lyman (2016)
JR C Will Smith (2016)
SR 1B/3B Dan Rosenbaum (2016)
rSO OF/C Ryan Summers (2016)
SO RHP Kade McClure (2017)
SO RHP Lincoln Henzman (2017)
SO RHP Sean Leland (2017)
SO LHP/1B Brendan McKay (2017)
SO C Colby Fitch (2017)
SO SS/2B Devin Hairston (2017)
FR RHP Riley Thompson (2017)
FR RHP Sam Bordner (2018)
FR RHP Bryan Hoeing (2018)
FR RHP Noah Burkholder (2018)
FR LHP Adam Wolf (2018)
FR OF Josh Stowers (2018)
FR INF Devin Mann (2018)
FR OF Chris Botsoe (2018)
FR C Zeke Pinkham (2018)
FR SS Daniel Little (2018)
FR 3B Drew Ellis (2018)
High Priority Follows: Kyle Funkhouser, Zack Burdi, Drew Harrington, Anthony Kidston, Jake Sparger, Corey Ray, Blake Tiberi, Nick Solak, Logan Taylor, Colin Lyman, Will Smith, Dan Rosenbaum, Ryan Summers
Miami
SR LHP Thomas Woodrey (2016)
JR RHP Cooper Hammond (2016)
JR RHP Bryan Garcia (2016)
JR LHP Danny Garcia (2016)
SR RHP Enrique Sosa (2016)
rSO RHP Andy Honiotes (2016)
JR C/1B Zack Collins (2016)
JR OF Willie Abreu (2016)
JR OF Jacob Heyward (2016)
SR SS Brandon Lopez (2016)
rJR 1B/OF Chris Barr (2016)
JR 2B/SS Johnny Ruiz (2016)
JR INF Randy Batista (2016)
JR 1B Edgar Michelangeli (2016)
SO LHP Michael Mediavilla (2017)
SO RHP Jesse Lepore (2017)
rFR RHP Keven Pimentel (2017)
rFR RHP Devin Meyer (2017)
rFR LHP Luke Spangler (2017)
SO OF Carl Chester (2017)
FR RHP Andrew Cabezas (2018)
FR RHP Frankie Bartow (2018)
FR 3B Romy Gonzalez (2018)
High Priority Follows: Thomas Woodrey, Cooper Hammond, Bryan Garcia, Danny Garcia, Enrique Sosa, Sandy Honiotes, Zack Collins, Willie Abreu, Jacob Heyward, Brandon Lopez, Chris Barr, Johnny Ruiz
North Carolina
JR RHP AJ Bogucki (2016)
JR RHP Zac Gallen (2016)
JR LHP Zach Rice (2016)
rSR RHP Chris McCue (2016)
JR RHP Spencer Trayner (2016)
SO RHP/1B Ryder Ryan (2016)
JR OF Tyler Ramirez (2016)
JR OF Tyler Lynn (2016)
JR OF Adam Pate (2016)
SR SS/2B Eli Sutherland (2016)
SO RHP JB Bukauskas (2017)
SO RHP Jason Morgan (2017)
SO RHP Hansen Butler (2017)
SO RHP Brett Daniels (2017)
SO LHP/1B Hunter Williams (2017)
SO OF/1B Brian Miller (2017)
SO 3B/SS Zack Gahagan (2017)
SO SS/2B Logan Warmoth (2017)
FR 3B/RHP Kyle Datres (2017)
FR LHP Brendon Little (2018)
RHP Taylor Sugg (2018)
FR RHP Cole Aker (2018)
FR RHP Rodney Hutchison (2018)
FR C/RHP Cody Roberts (2018)
FR C Wyatt Cross (2018)
FR C Brendan Illies (2018)
FR OF Josh Ladowski (2018)
FR SS Utah Jones (2018)
FR OF Brandon Riley (2018)
High Priority Follows: AJ Bogucki, Zac Gallen, Zach Rice, Chris McCue, Spencer Trayner, Ryder Ryan, Tyler Ramirez, Tyler Lynn, Adam Pate, Eli Sutherland
North Carolina State
JR RHP Joe O’Donnell (2016)
rJR LHP Sean Adler (2016)
rJR RHP Johnny Piedmonte (2016)
JR RHP Cory Wilder (2016)
rSR LHP Travis Orwig (2016)
SR LHP Will Gilbert (2016)
rJR RHP Karl Keglovits (2016)
rSR RHP Kyle Smith (2016)
rSR RHP Chris Williams (2016)
rSO LHP Cody Beckman (2016)
JR LHP Ryan Williamson (2016)
JR C/3B Andrew Knizner (2016)
JR 1B/OF Preston Palmeiro (2016)
SR 3B/SS Ryne Willard (2016)
SR C Chance Shepard (2016)
rSO OF Garrett Suggs (2016)
SO LHP Brian Brown (2017)
SO RHP Evan Brabrand (2017)
SO RHP/3B Evan Mendoza (2017)
SO RHP/INF Tommy DeJuneas (2017)
rFR OF Storm Edwards (2017)
SO OF Josh McLain (2017)
SO 3B/SS Joe Dunand (2017)
SO 2B Stephen Pitarra (2017)
SO OF Brock Deatherage (2017)
SO OF Shane Shepard (2017)
FR SS/OF Xavier LeGrant (2018)
High Priority Follows: Joe O’Donnell, Sean Adler, Johnny Piedmonte, Cory Wilder, Travis Orwig, Will Gilbert, Karl Keglovits, Kyle Smith, Chris Williams, Cody Beckman, Ryan Williamson, Andrew Knizner, Preston Palmeiro, Ryne Willard, Chance Shepard,
Notre Dame
SR RHP Nick McCarty (2016)
SR RHP David Hearne (2016)
SR LHP Michael Hearne (2016)
JR RHP Ryan Smoyer (2016)
JR LHP Jim Orwick (2016)
JR LHP Scott Tully (2016)
SR RHP Connor Hale (2016)
SR OF/LHP Zac Kutsulis (2016)
JR 2B/3B Cavan Biggio (2016)
JR 2B/SS Kyle Fiala (2016)
SR SS Lane Richards (2016)
JR C Ryan Lidge (2016)
rSO OF Torii Hunter (2016)
SR C/OF Ricky Sanchez (2016)
SO RHP Brad Bass (2017)
SO LHP Sean Guenther (2017)
SO RHP Brandon Bielak (2017)
SO RHP Peter Solomon (2017)
SO RHP Evy Ruibal (2017)
SO OF Jake Johnson (2017)
FR RHP Connor Hock (2018)
FR RHP Chris Connolly (2018)
FR OF/RHP Matt Vierling (2018)
FR 3B Jake Singer (2018)
FR OF Connor Stutts (2018)
High Priority Follows: Nick McCarty, David Hearne, Michael Hearne, Ryan Smoyer, Scott Tully, Zac Kutsulis, Cavan Biggio, Kyle Fiala, Lane Richards, Ryan Lidge, Torii Hunter, Ricky Sanchez
Pittsburgh
JR RHP TJ Zeuch (2016)
SR RHP Aaron Sandefur (2016)
JR RHP Sam Mersing (2016)
rSO LHP Josh Mitchell (2016)
JR RHP Matt Pidich (2016)
SR OF/LHP Aaron Schnurbusch (2016)
SR C Alex Kowalczyk (2016)
rJR OF Jacob Wright (2016)
JR INF Ron Sherman (2016)
JR OF Nick Yarnall (2016)
JR C Caleb Parry (2016)
JR C Manny Pazos (2016)
rSO OF Frank Maldonado (2016)
SO RHP Isaac Mattson (2017)
SO 3B/SS Charles LeBlanc (2017)
FR LHP Clayton Morrell (2018)
FR RHP Derek West (2018)
FR OF Yasin Chentouf (2018)
High Priority Follows: TJ Zeuch, Aaron Sandefur, Sam Mersing, Matt Pidich, Aaron Schnurbusch, Alex Kowalczyk, Jacob Wright, Ron Sherman, Nick Yarnall, Caleb Parry, Frank Maldonado
Virginia
JR RHP Connor Jones (2016)
JR RHP Alec Bettinger (2016)
rSO RHP Jack Roberts (2016)
SR LHP David Rosenberger (2016)
JR RHP Tyler Shambora (2016)
JR RHP Holden Grounds (2016)
rJR LHP/OF Kevin Doherty (2016)
JR C Matt Thaiss (2016)
SR C Robbie Coman (2016)
JR SS/3B Daniel Pinero (2016)
SO RHP Tommy Doyle (2017)
SO RHP Derek Casey (2017)
SO LHP Bennett Sousa (2017)
SO OF/LHP Adam Haseley (2017)
SO 3B Charlie Cody (2017)
SO 2B/OF Ernie Clement (2017)
SO 2B Jack Gerstenmaier (2017)
SO C/2B Justin Novak (2017)
SO 1B/RHP Pavin Smith (2017)
FR OF Doak Dozier (2017)
FR RHP Evan Sperling (2018)
FR LHP Daniel Lynch (2018)
FR LHP Connor Eason (2018)
FR RHP Grant Sloan (2018):
FR OF/RHP Cameron Simmons (2018)
FR 3B Ryan Karstetter (2018)
FR 2B/SS Andy Weber (2018)
FR 3B/1B Nate Eikhoff (2018)
FR OF Jake McCarthy (2018)
FR INF Jon Meola (2018)
High Priority Follows: Connor Jones, Alec Bettinger, Jack Roberts, David Rosenberger, Tyler Shambora, Holden Grounds, Kevin Doherty, Matt Thaiss, Robbie Coman, Daniel Pinero
Virginia Tech
rJR LHP Kit Scheetz (2016)
rSR LHP Jon Woodcock (2016)
JR RHP Aaron McGarity (2016)
JR RHP Luke Scherzer (2016)
rSO RHP Ryan Lauria (2016)
rJR 1B/LHP Phil Sciretta (2016)
rJR OF Saige Jenco (2016)
rSR OF Logan Bible (2016)
JR OF Mac Caples (2016)
JR 3B/SS Ryan Tufts (2016)
SR C Andrew Mogg (2016)
rSO OF Nick Anderson (2016)
rSO OF/LHP Tom Stoffel (2016)
SO LHP Packy Naughton (2017)
SO OF/3B Max Ponzurik (2017)
SO C Joe Freiday (2017)
FR RHP Nic Enright (2018)
FR RHP Culver Hughes (2018)
FR RHP Cole Kragel (2018)
FR RHP Payton Holdsworth (2018)
FR LHP/1B Patrick Hall (2018)
FR RHP Tim Salvadore (2018)
FR OF/1B Stevie Mangrum (2018)
FR C/OF Stephen Polansky (2018)
High Priority Follows: Kit Scheetz, Jon Woodcock, Aaron McGarity, Luke Scherzer, Ryan Lauria, Phil Sciretta, Saige Jenco, Mac Caples, Ryan Tufts, Nick Anderson
Wake Forest
SR RHP/C Garrett Kelly (2016)
rSR RHP Aaron Fossas (2016)
JR RHP Parker Dunshee (2016)
rSO RHP Chris Farish (2016)
JR RHP Connor Johnstone (2016)
JR RHP John McCarren (2016)
rSO RHP Parker Johnson (2016)
JR 1B/RHP Will Craig (2016)
JR C Ben Breazeale (2016)
SR OF/2B Joey Rodriguez (2016)
JR 2B/OF Nate Mondou (2016)
rSR OF Kevin Conway (2016)
JR OF Jonathan Pryor (2016)
SO RHP Drew Loepprich (2017)
SO RHP Donnie Sellers (2016)
SO OF Stuart Fairchild (2017)
SO 1B Gavin Sheets (2017)
SO OF Keegan Maronpot (2017)
SO SS/2B Drew Freedman (2017)
SO SS/2B Bruce Steel (2017)
FR LHP Tyler Witt (2018)
FR RHP Griffin Roberts (2018)
FR RHP Rayne Supple (2018)
FR 3B/SS John Aiello (2018)
High Priority Follows: Garrett Kelly, Aaron Fossas, Parker Dunshee, Chris Farish, Connor Johnstone, John McCarren, Parker Johnson, Will Craig, Ben Breazeale, Joey Rodriguez, Nate Mondou, Kevin Conway, Jonathan Pryor
EDIT: Sellers is a 2016 draft-eligible sophomore. Fastball up to 95 with a solid slider. He’ll be included on future lists.
2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – ACC (PART ONE)
Every team in the ACC that had rosters up before the season began got the full team-by-team profile treatment. Below are links to those teams — sorry Louisville, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Virginia fans — as well as a brief excerpt that touches on a player that stood out to me as being particularly interesting.
Full prospect lists, follow lists, and additional commentary (with an emphasis on the teams I missed pre-season) should be ready tomorrow. Expect a lot of words about Louisville’s big offensive three (deep diving on Corey Ray), stock up/stock down on a few of the conference’s top position players, and a few head-to-head player comparisons. They’ll also be something about the ACC’s top pitchers, but I haven’t written that just yet…
JR RHP Justin Dunn has the chance to have the kind of big junior season that puts him in the top five round conversation this June. Like Adams and Nicklas, Dunn’s size might be a turn-off for some teams. Unlike those guys, it figures to be easier to overlook because of a potent fastball/breaking ball one-two punch. Though he’s matured as a pitcher in many ways since enrolling at BC, he’s still a little rough around the edges with respect to both his command and control. His arm speed (consistently 90-94, up to 96) and that aforementioned low-80s slider are what put him in the early round mix. If he can continue to make strides with his command and control and gain a little consistency with a third pitch (he’s shown both a CB and a CU already, but both need work), then he’ll really rise. That’s a pretty obvious statement now that I read it back, but I think it probably can apply to about 75% of draft prospects before the season begins. No sense in hiding from it, I suppose.
His [Chris Okey] defense behind the plate never quite reached the threshold where you’d call any one component of his game consistently plus. He’s shown some plus pop times in the past, sure, but not as often as average to above-average times. I don’t think anybody would have imagined he’d get more athletic past his teenage years — time has a way of catching up to everybody — but there is a little bit more stiffness to him at present than you might think if going off those old scouting reports. He’s still the athletic, above-average all-around defensive catcher who can run a little bit that we mentioned at the top. And if we’re going to call him out some for slipping a bit — or, perhaps more accurately, not developing as hoped — with the glove, then it’s only right to praise him for the maturation of his power. What was once considered promising but far off has turned into displays of average or better present power with the shot at plus raw still out there. I’d err on the side of caution with his future power grade and put him closer to the average to above-average range where it currently plays, but that still means he could be a steady 15-20 home run bat at his peak. One interesting name that I heard as a comparison that makes a little bit of sense: Mike Lieberthal.
[Bailey] Clark is really good, but still leaves you wanting more. That’s not necessarily a bad thing — being a finished product at 20-years-old is more of a negative than a positive in the eyes of many in the scouting world — but it speaks to the developmental challenges facing Clark if he wants to jump up into the first round mix. The fastball (88-94, 96 peak) is there, the size (6-5, 210) is there, and the athleticism is there, so it’ll come down to gaining more command and consistency on his mid-80s cut-SL (a knockout pitch when on) and trusting his nascent changeup in game action enough to give scouts an honest opportunity to assess it. Even if little changes with Clark between now and June, we’re still talking a top five round lock with the high-floor possibility of future late-inning reliever. If he makes the expected leap in 2016, then the first round will have to make room for one more college arm.
As is the case with many players who have a bushel of tools rattled off at the top of their dossier, the big question surrounding [Ben] DeLuzio is how much he’ll hit and whether or not his approach will ever improve enough to allow him to tap into his raw power and considerable athletic ability. In this way, he’s similar to many of this year’s draft’s top college prospects while also being a fascinating outlier in history of the Seminoles hitters. He’s not DJ Stewart. He’s not Stephen or Mike McGee. He’s not James Ramsey or Jayce Boyd or Devon Travis or Tyler Holt. That’s both a good and bad thing. I’m not a Florida State historian so I’m sure I’ll hear from fans of the team via email for this, but a case could be made that he’s the highest upside athlete to play in Tallahassee since Buster Posey. Maybe you could argue Taiwan Easterling, D’Vontrey Richardson, or Justin Gonzalez, but the point is that DeLuzio would be at or near the top of the list over the past decade or so. For all his gifts, however, DeLuzio still swings and misses a lot. That’s not a trait shared by the aforementioned Stewart, McGee’s, Ramsey, Boyd, Travis, or Holt. Of that group, the guy he is most similar to both athletically and from a plate discipline standpoint is Travis. In no way is it a direct comparison, but a bigger Devon Travis isn’t the worst frame of reference to what DeLuzio could be. DeLuzio needs to find out whatever it is that helped Travis make the jump from athletic yet raw college hacker to athletic yet refined professional hitter. If I knew what it took or could predict a breakout, I’d…well, I’d probably still be doing this because babies and mortgages are expensive and entry level baseball jobs are for men and women much younger than myself.
The Pence comparison [for OF/1B Kel Johnson] was and is physical only; like, the two look similar but don’t have the same game. As a freshman Johnson did pretty much as expected: tons of power with lots of swing and miss. I’d actually say his contact skills were better than what we could have hoped. I’m cautiously optimistic heading into his second college season though the aforementioned swing and miss issues and defensive questions (maybe a LF, likely a 1B) are red flags.
I love JR C/1B Zack Collins as a prospect. His brand of power isn’t typically seen in amateur prospects. His approach, which will always include lots of swings and misses especially on the slow stuff, has matured enough that I think he’ll post average or better on-base numbers as a pro. He’s what we would charitably call a “work in progress” behind the plate, but all of the buzz out of fall practice (always positive and player-friendly, it should be noted) seems to indicate he may have turned the corner defensively. The comparisons to Kyle Schwarber make all the sense in the world right now: they are both big guys who move better than you’d think with defensive questions at their primary position, massive raw power, the ability to unleash said power in game action, and a patient approach that leads to loads of walks and whiffs. The edge for Schwarber comes in his hit tool; I think Schwarber’s was and will be ahead of Collins’s, so we’re talking the difference between above-average to average/slightly below-average. That hit tool combined with plus raw power, an approach I’m fond of, and the chance of playing regularly behind the plate (with an all-around offensive profile good enough to thrive elsewhere) make Collins one of my favorite 2016 draft prospects.
JR C Andrew Knizner is a fascinating prospect who doesn’t quite fit the mold of what one might think of a potential top five round college catcher. Defensively, he’s still very much out of sorts as a relatively new catcher but his athleticism and willingness to make it work could be enough for teams willing to take the long view on his pro future. Offensively, he’s a high contact hitter with excellent plate coverage and power that has a chance to be average or better as he continues to add strength. I tend to give players new to a demanding defensive position the benefit of the doubt for as long as possible, so I’m fine with riding out another half-season or so of shaky defense behind the plate before beginning to ask the question whether or not Knizner has what it takes to be a catcher full-time in the pros. Almost no matter what transpires on the field this year, I can’t see a team drafting Knizner high enough that he’s signable with the intention of at least continuing to try him as a catcher for the foreseeable future. He’s good enough in other areas that it’s not quite a catcher or bust proposition for him, but that depends on how high one’s expectations are for him at this point.
I’m still on the fence some about JR 1B Preston Palmeiro, but he has some very vocal fans out there who love his swing and think he has a chance to be an average or better hitter with above-average power production. Being a primary first base prospect at the amateur level is a tricky thing with a bit more to it than many — myself included — think about. On the one hand, it’s obvious that being limited defensively to first base drastically increases the threshold of entry to professional baseball as a hitter. You need to hit and hit and hit to make it. On the other hand, there simply isn’t the same competition at first base at the amateur level as there is at other spots. I know that many a big league first baseman played elsewhere along the way, but if we’re just talking about getting drafted in the first place then the competitive field begins to look a lot thinner. In other words, if Palmeiro goes out and hits the shit out of the ball all spring, then what’s to stop a team from valuing that bat higher than we’re conditioned to think because of the relative lack of options to be found later in the draft? Up the middle players are wonderful and we know they dominate these drafts for a reason, but with offensive production (power, especially) growing increasingly scarce at the highest level perhaps the place for a big bat a team believes in will come sooner on draft day.
[Cavan] Biggio’s hit tool, patience, and ability to play important infield spots at a high level still have him at or near the first round range for me. Not sure if it’s instructive or not, but I like looking back at Biggio’s placement between Tyler O’Neill and Billy McKinney (the two hitters who signed pro deals that sandwiched Biggio in his initial draft year) and using that as a starting point as to what kind of hitter I think he can be as a professional. O’Neill if he sells out some of his patience and contact skills for power and McKinney if he keeps progressing as a hitter as is. McKinney in the infield is a pretty interesting prospect and one that I think can play his way into the first round even in a top-heavy year. Two pros that I’ve heard him compared to so far are Ryan Roberts (realistic floor) and Justin Turner (hopeful ceiling). I can see it.
[Saige] Jenco followed the Gentry college career path fairly well by putting up an improved .136 ISO last year. The Red Sox couldn’t get him to put his name on a pro contract last summer and their loss is the Hokies gain. Not much has changed in his overall profile from a year ago — he’s still fast, he still has an advanced approach, he can still chase down deep flies in center — so the ceiling of a fourth outfielder remains. Of course, guys with fourth outfielder ceilings with similar skill sets (speed, patience, defense) have turned into starting players for some teams as the dearth of power in the modern game has shifted the balance back to the Jenco’s of the world.
Not all of these guys are great examples of that archetype, but a quick search of 2015 seasons of corner outfielders (200 PA minimum) who slugged less than .400 but still finished with positive fWAR includes Brett Gardner, Nori Aoki, Jarrod Dyson, Ben Revere, Delino Deshields, Rusney Castillo, and Chris Denorfia. David DeJesus, a pretty good tweener who feels like a really good fourth outfielder or a competent starting corner guy that is often one of the first names I think of when I think of this type, fell just short of the list. I’m not necessarily comparing Jenco to any of those guys — while some of those guys are great in a corner and stretched in center, Jenco is really good as a CF — so consider this more of an exercise in theoretical player comparisons as we attempt to define the various types of players that teams seem to like these days. As far as comps go, I’ll stick with my Gentry one for now.
I love [Will] Craig. In past years I might back down some from the love from reasons both fair (positional value, certain scouty quibbles about bat speed and timing) and not (seeing him ignored by all the major media outlets so much that I start to question my own judgment), but I see little way that will be the case with Craig. Sure, he could force my hand by cratering out with a disappointing junior season (a la Ryan Howard back in the day), but that would only shift him from sleeper first round talent to sleeper fifth round value. His is a bat I believe in and I’m willing to ride or die with it.
I wanted to mention the Daniel Murphy comparison I got for JR 2B/OF Nate Mondou that I heard recently, but I couldn’t remember the major media outlet that had it first. I could have missed it elsewhere, but I think mentioning it again would be one of those instances where I plagiarize myself. I hit thirty a few months back and my memory has gone up in flames since. In addition to Murphy, I’ve also heard Todd Walker as a reference point for Mondou’s bat. Lefty bats who love to attack early in the count, provide average or better power, and can hang in at the keystone spot are always going to be valued highly by pro clubs. Or at least they should. The only thing that may knock Mondou down is the competition at the spot; we’ve only just begun, but he’s joined at the top of his own position ranking by the Notre Dame pair (Cavan Biggio and Kyle Fiala) profiled earlier. I’d put him between the two for now with the chance to rise as he keeps mashing. There’s some concern about his overly aggressive approach getting exposed along the way, so I guess consider that a second potential way that Mondou slips some this spring.
2016 MLB Draft Mock Draft – Territorial Rights
The 2016 MLB Draft will be here before we know it, so that can only mean one thing: it’s MOCK DRAFT season. It’s been a few years since I published a mock draft around here, but I figured it was finally time to get back in the game. Of course, since I can’t offer much in the way of insider intel — I’m not BA-era peak Jim Callis over here — putting together a mock would be pretty much pointless. With the proper analysis attached to each pick mock drafts can be fun and interesting reads, not to mention a great way of exposing casual fans — the number of people who Google “2016 mlb mock draft” that find this site is insane, at least relative to the four people who read on their own volition otherwise — to players they might have not yet heard of. I might attempt a mock like that between now and June. Or not. Either way, this ain’t it.
So until then (or not) we’ll have some fun and take the idea of a mock draft to the logical extreme. If “mock” means to make something seem laughably unreal or impossible, let’s make our mock draft as unreal or impossible as we can. Our fourth edition of this 2016 MLB Mock Draft is based on territorial rights. Teams can only draft a player that currently plays amateur ball in within the confines of their state. Easy enough, right? Unfortunately this means no Jay Groome, Nick Senzel, Riley Pint, Delvin Perez, Corey Ray, Alec Hansen, Connor Jones, Josh Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Matt Krook, Dakota Hudson, Anthony Kay, Joe Rizzo, Jordan Sheffield, Will Craig…and on and on and on and on. It does, however, allow for some fun mid-first round steals and a few interesting decisions when picking players from states both big and small. Let’s do it…
1 – Philadelphia Phillies – Holy Ghost Prep SS/3B Nolan Jones
My home state of Pennsylvania has nine D1 schools with baseball programs covering five different conferences. I’ve seen four of the schools already — Penn, Lafayette, St. Joe’s, Villanova — and have a shot to see all nine by the end of the season if I plan my schedule out creatively. There are some solid prospects at those universities — David Bednar stood out so far — who will most definitely be drafted this June, but the real strength of the 2016 Pennsylvania draft class is in the prep talent. My very preliminary look at this year’s high school class has around a dozen names that could get drafted this year out of the state. The best is Nolan Jones, a prospect good enough to be on the short list of the Phillies in a non-nonsense mock draft (i.e., what we call “real life”). Jones has all the tools to be a plus defender at the hot corner with the raw power and aptitude for hitting that could make him one of the best all-around infielders to come out of this class. He’s a really exciting prospect…and a truer “local” prospect to Philadelphia than a certain Jersey lefty, if you’re into that sort of thing.
2 – Cincinnati Reds – Ohio State OF Ronnie Dawson
Cincinnati had a surprisingly high number of options despite being limited to picking only from Ohio. With eleven D1 schools to choose from — some of which were not instantly recognizable to me as Ohio schools, like Wright State and…fine, just Wright State — there was plenty of college talent to make up for the lack of interesting high school prospects. Ronnie Dawson barely beat out teammate Troy Montgomery, Sean Murphy, and the TBD eventual pick of the Indians below. I cringe a little when I hear some of the terms scouts use to describe players — a far worse practice in football than baseball, admittedly — but one of those terms I hate applies too well to Dawson to ignore: he’s a beast. Big, strong, athletic, powerful, fleet of foot…there’s no other way to put it, he’s a beast.
3 – Atlanta Braves – Mercer OF Kyle Lewis
Turns out Georgia, one of the strongest states for high school draft prospects in recent years, actually has less D1 schools that play ball (seven) than either Pennsylvania or Ohio. Go figure. Josh Lowe, Carter Kieboom, Will Benson, Taylor Trammel, and Alex Speas (among many others) keep that impressive prep tradition alive in 2016, but the Braves, long rumored to covet a college bat early on draft day, can’t pass up the biggest, baddest name in the college game. Locking down a future fixture in the middle of your order isn’t a bad way to accelerate the rebuild. Between those high school players and Lewis, Georgia just might be my favorite prospect state in this year’s class.
4 – Colorado Rockies – Air Force RHP Griffin Jax
I debated on a few high school arms before finally settling on Regis Jesuit RHP Bo Weiss as the pick here. Then I realized I totally blanked on Air Force being right around Colorado Springs. That made the selection a little bit easier and a little bit harder all at once. I’d take either Griffin Jax or Jacob DeVries over any of the admittedly intriguing group of 2016 Colorado prep pitchers (really like Paul Tillotson and Travis Marr is interesting, too), but choosing between the two Air Force co-aces isn’t easy. Jax gives you a little more certainty than DeVries — who might have a little bit of recently acquired Rockies closer Jake McGee in him now that I think about it — with the added benefit of being no slouch in the upside department in his own right. I really think Colorado is building something potentially special. While a rock solid mid- to late-rotation arm might seem like the sexiest pick, Jax is the kind of guy you can take for granted (in a good way) as a useful big league piece without worrying about him stalling out for anything but an injury.
5 – Milwaukee Brewers – Verona Area HS C Ben Rortvedt
Much has been made about this year’s high school class having talented players spring out of traditionally unconventional places. One of the better examples of that is how top-heavy the prep prospects in Wisconsin are this year. There’s depth to be sure, but it’s the top tier guys that really make the state stand out. As I cycled through names I kept finding myself saying “Oh yeah, it’ll be him,” before getting to the next name and reconsidering. Nate Brown and Gavin Lux, in particular, are players that would almost certainly be the best in their class in any other year. Instead, the Brewers attempt to get their catcher of the future in Ben Rortvedt, a wholly impressive defensive player who combines outstanding physical strength with above-average agility behind the dish.
6 – Oakland Athletics – La Costa Canyon HS OF Mickey Moniak
If the draft is held on a day that ends in a Y, then that must mean that California is loaded with pro prospects. This pick came down to Mickey Moniak vs Blake Rutherford, easily the most fascinating prospect head-to-head battle in this class right now. I’d get more enjoyment watching Moniak run down fly balls in Oakland’s big dumb ballpark than Rutherford hit balls out of it, so Moniak takes it.
7 – Miami Marlins – Miami C Zack Collins
I’ll keep banging the drum for Zack Collins as a legitimate top ten pick as long as it takes for somebody to take note. If Kyle Schwarber can go fourth overall, then why not Collins? If anything, I think Collins is the better draft prospect of the two.
8 – San Diego Padres – Chaminade Prep OF Blake Rutherford
The Padres might be best served by these rule changes than any other team in this mock. Their future real life haul should be pretty impressive — holding three picks in the top twenty-five makes them the envy of every scouting department — but the damage they could do just by poaching half of the top half-dozen prospects from California could wind up just as extensive. Whether you love Rutherford or still have reservations about his game (or find yourself gutless riding the fence…like me!), getting him with the eight overall pick is fun.
9 – Detroit Tigers – Michigan 1B/LHP Carmen Benedetti
Search for “Carmen Benedetti” on this site. I’ve written a lot about him lately. Assuming you don’t — and good for you not being bossed around by some baseball nerd on the internet — the quick version is he’s really good at baseball, both the hitting/fielding part and the pitching part. I’ve likened him to Brian Johnson more than once, and I think he’s shown enough as a position player to get a shot in the field first. The raw power might not scream slam dunk future big league regular at first base, but the overall offensive and defensive profile could make him an above-average regular for a long time.
10 – Chicago White Sox – Illinois RHP Cody Sedlock
I appreciate that of the eleven schools that play D1 baseball in Illinois, eight have Illinois directly in the university name. That made my life a lot easier when searching my database. My mind still kept wanting to give the White Sox Corey Ray, but that would be against our hastily put together yet very important ironclad rules. Future big league starter Cody Sedlock isn’t a bad consolation prize. Bradley, Chicago State, and Northwestern are the three Illinois schools without Illinois in the name…just in case you were wondering.
11 – Seattle Mariners – Federal Way HS 1B/OF Christian Jones
It was a close call between Ian Hamilton and Christian Jones, but the bat trumped the arm in the end. That’s often my personal preference on these things. Jones has been on the radar for me as much for the sound he makes on contact than any visual observation I’ve made. If he can play the outfield professionally, as many are beginning to think, then so much the better.
12 – Boston Red Sox – Boston College RHP Justin Dunn
With apologies to the dynamic duo of Dustin Hunt and Aaron Civale at Northeastern, it’s Justin Dunn and his easy upper-90s heat that finds himself on the fast track to Fenway’s bullpen. If Dunn (or Jesse Adams, John Nicklas, Mike King, or any other Eagle) does get drafted by Boston this June, then he’ll be the first to turn the trick since Jed Rogers in 2001 and only the sixth BC to the Red Sox draft connection fo all-time. How about that? Dunn (and/or the rest) would also attempt to have a pro career that finished with positive bWAR, something that has been done only once (!) in school history so far. Of the six Boston College players to reach the big leagues, five had/have negative career bWAR. Only Tony Sanchez’s 0.4 figure is in the black.
13 – Tampa Bay Rays – Florida LHP AJ Puk
The Rays take advantage of our draft rules to land arguably this draft’s top college pitching prospect. Even coming off an aborted start due to a balky back, AJ Puk is currently trending up as he rides the rollercoaster that has taken him from underrated (this time last year) to overrated (much of the offseason) to potentially a tad underrated once again. He probably never should have been pushed so heavily as a potential 1-1 guy — in the mix, sure, but not as the favorite/co-favorite — but his value settling even just a few picks after feels about right. It sounds a bit superficial because maybe it is, but 1-1 guys get picked apart in a way that even potential top five candidates do not. The focus has been on Puk’s inconsistent slider, underwhelming change, and spotty command. That’s what he can’t do. What he does well — pitch off an explosive mid-90s fastball, flash a dominant mid-80s slider, and use his 6-7, 225 pound frame to every advantage possible — he does really darn well. Needless to say he’d be a steal at thirteen.
14 – Cleveland Indians – Kent State LHP Eric Lauer
I’ll quote myself on Lauer, if you’ll allow it…
There isn’t a box that he doesn’t check when looking for a potentially quick-moving above-average mid-rotation big league starting pitcher. He’s an athletic (like Plesac) lefthander (like Deeg/Akin), with good size (like Deeg/Plesac), very strong performance indicators (10.78 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9), above-average heat (88-94) that he commands like a pro, and a complete assortment of offspeed pitches (74-77 CB, 78-82 SL, emerging CU) he can throw in any count. One could quibble by noting there’s no singular knockout pitch here – maybe with continued work one of his secondaries can become a consistent plus pitch, but certainly not presently – so maybe Lauer’s best case scenario outcome isn’t quite that of some of his peers across the country, but that’s a nitpick for a still impressive ceiling/high floor starting arm. Maybe you don’t love him – I kind of do, clearly…but maybe you don’t – but he’s still a prospect that’s hard not to at least like.
15 – Minnesota Twins – Minnesota C Austin Athmann
There’s no young Joe Mauer hiding in the the Gopher State this year, but the Minnesota University battery of Dalton Sawyer to Austin Athmann gives the Twins two intriguing draft options right off the top. Again we go hitter over pitcher when the talent levels appear close from the outside looking in. Athmann has a strong arm and really solid 2016 numbers. Good enough for me.
16 – Los Angeles Angels – Cal RHP Daulton Jefferies
I like this pick because it helps make this feel more like a mock draft than a random assortment of players listed according to arbitrary rules. The Angels would have their pick from a ton of talented California prospects, but here they opt for the relatively safety of Daulton Jefferies. As much fun as going for a home run pick would be — Avery Tuck, one of the many prep arms, and Lucas Erceg all come to mind — the Angels simply can not afford to come away from this draft with a serious early round hit. Jefferies is as close to big league ready as any college starter in this class, so it’s a pretty perfect marriage.
17 – Houston Astros – Rice RHP Jon Duplantier
I’ve typed and deleted a few different variations of how down Texas is this year, but can’t bring myself to go through with it. There are a handful of high school prospects as always — less than usual it seems — and all of the college programs seem down. Those might be too broad generalizations — I’m waiting for a fan of one of the schools in Texas (not Dallas Baptist, though, because they are awesome and everybody should know that) to call me out any second now — but A&M (the best of the bunch), Baylor, Rice, TCU, Tech, and, most egregiously, Texas all seem down relative to the standards we’ve come to expect. None of that should diminish the accomplishments and credentials of Jon Duplantier, who has pitched his tail off all season long. Despite rarely mentioned as a potential first round pick, Duplantier has sneaky top of the rotation upside. The only red flag is the university he pitches for; thankfully, that risk is mitigated some by the fact his history of missing time with relatively minor injuries has prevented his coach from overworking him so far. Smaller injuries might have prevented him from getting overworked to the point of larger injuries. Ironic, right? If Duplantier flops in the pros, I’m out on Rice pitchers forever.
18 – New York Yankees – Shenendehowa HS RHP Ian Anderson
Fans of twenty-nine other teams would not like this one bit. Ian Anderson, a dark-horse 1-1 candidate, has everything you’d want to see in a high school righthander with worlds of projection left. He also helps my pet theory that there’s an easy shortcut to amateur scouting: just follow the recruits. If a player is committed to Vanderbilt, like Ian Anderson is, move him up ___ spots on your board. Let the college teams do the hard work for you! Vanderbilt, Florida, UCLA, LSU…if a guy has a commitment to a school on that level, then you should want to draft him. I loved Anderson as much as anybody as he began to put his name on the national map, but once he had that Vandy commit in his back pocket he started looking better than ever.
19 – New York Mets – Henninger HS LHP Jeff Belge
Jeff Belge would help replenish the Mets pitching pipeline. That’s about all I’ve got. Belge got off to a fast start as a prospect relative to his peers thanks to his imposing size (6-6, 240) and present arm strength (85-92 FB, up to 94-95). Others have caught and exceeded him in this class, but he’s still a talented young lefty capable of using three offspeed pitches and blowing fastballs by the opposition.
20 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Stanford RHP Cal Quantrill
Plus fastball, plus change, plus pitchability, and flashes of two different breaking balls with upside. Get Cal Quantrill back on a mound and watch him fly up boards as we get closer to June. Sight unseen from last spring, I’d still consider taking him just outside the top ten picks or so.
21 – Toronto Blue Jays – York Mills Collegiate Institute C Andy Yerzy
Covering the entire country is one thing, but trying to develop solid contacts in Canada and Puerto Rico gives me that extra degree of difficulty that makes me want to bang my head against the wall at times. I do like what I know about Andy Yerzy and Austin Shields. Are they the top two Canadian prospects for 2016? Beats me. But they are my favorites for now.
22 – Pittsburgh Pirates – Plum HS OF Alex Kirilloff
Pittsburgh opts to stay close to home with the nod going to the local prep star over the local college star. Even with the successful recent return to health of the very talented TJ Zeuch, the potential plus all-around bat of Alex Kirilloff is too tempting to pass up on. Hey, it worked with the Neil Walker pick, so why not go to the Pittsburgh high school baseball well again in the first round? As a hitter, Kirilloff can really do it all: big raw power, plus bat speed, a mature approach, and a hit tool so promising that almost every scout has agreed that he’s an advanced hitter who happens to hit for power rather than the other way around. He’s the rare high school prospect who could hit enough to have confidence in him as a pro even if eventually confined to first base.
23 – St. Louis Cardinals – Missouri SS Ryan Howard
The Cardinals can only hope that I still have the patience to do these silly mocks next year. Instead of trying to decide on which prospect to reach on like this, they’d have the luxury of debating between Tanner Houck and Jake Burger. Because it’s 2016 and not 2017, however, Ryan Howard resembles the most sensible pick. I think he probably tops out as a quality utility infielder in the big leagues, but focusing on the “in the big leagues” part rather than the “utility infielder” aspect makes it worthwhile.
24 – San Diego Padres – San Diego SS Bryson Brigman
I’m not sure I have much more to add on Brigman at the moment than what I wrote recently about him…
Doing so would allow me to regularly see Bryson Brigman, a prospect that has begun to remind me a lot of Arizona’s Scott Kingery from last year’s draft. Kingery was a second round pick (48th overall) and I could see Brigman rising to a similar level by June. Like Kingery last year, Brigman’s defensive future remains a question for scouts. Fortunately for both, the question is framed more around trying him in challenging spots than worrying about having to hide him elsewhere on the diamond. Brigman has an above-average to plus defensive future at second back in his back pocket already, so his playing a solid shortstop in 2016 is doing so with house money. In much the same way that former second baseman Alex Bregman wore everybody down with consistent above-average play at short last college season, Brigman has proved to many that he has what it takes to stick at shortstop in pro ball. Brigman’s appeal at this point is pretty clear: tons of defensive potential in the middle infield, contact abilities that elicit the classic “he could find a hole rolling out of bed” remarks from onlookers, and enough of the sneaky pop/mature approach offensive extras needed to be an impactful regular in the big leagues. I’ll stick with the Kingery – who smart people told me here could play shortstop if needed, a position since corroborated by those who have seen him in the pros (I’ll be seeing him for myself on Saturday, FWIW) – comparison for now, but I wouldn’t object to somebody who offered up a mix of the best of both Kingery and his old double play partner Kevin Newman. That would obviously be some kind of special player, but Brigman doesn’t seem too far off. I’ve said before I hate when people throw around terms like “first round player” so loosely that you could count 100 first rounders in their eyes in the months leading up to June, but I’ll be guilty of it here and call Brigman a first round player as of now. I’ve really come to appreciate his game since the start of the season.
25 – San Diego Padres – Santa Barbara HS RHP Kevin Gowdy
I haven’t been able to sneak Kevin Gowdy on to one of these mocks just yet, so it’s great that he finally made the cut. It wasn’t easy, what with guys like Matt Manning, Reggie Lawson, Nick Lodolo, Corbin Burnes, and Lucas Erceg all vying for the second to last California spot, but he made it. Since we’re firmly in the quote yourself section of the mock by now, here’s me from the comments section earlier this week on Gowdy: “Love Gowdy. Command, deception, and frame are all really promising. Puts his fastball where he wants it better than most of his college-aged peers. Velocity is good and breaking ball looks legit. And on top of all that, his delivery is a thing of beauty to me. I normally leave mechanics alone — don’t care what it looks long as long as the pitcher can repeat it consistently — but Gowdy’s stand out as being particularly efficient. I’m a big fan. Likely a top five prep pitcher in this class.”
26 – Chicago White Sox – Carmel Catholic HS C Cooper Johnson
I do not know if Cooper Johnson will hit enough to be a viable big league player. I do know that he can defend the heck out of his position. I had him on a Russell Martin (high), Francisco Cervelli (medium), and Austin Hedges (low) spectrum after seeing him over the summer. We’re getting late enough in this draft that even the low outcome for him would give you enough value back. Gambling on a defensive weapon behind the plate figuring things out just enough as a hitter seems like a smart bet to me.
27 – Baltimore Orioles – Maryland RHP Mike Shawaryn
Many words were written about Mike Shawaryn in yesterday’s post, so I’ll refer any new readers to that first and foremost. If you recall, my conclusions about Shawaryn centered on the idea that he has the chance to be one of the draft’s best undervalued assets, assuming his 2016 funk is attributable more to fatigue than anything else. Draft him in the second or third round — late first is pushing it, but so go the rules of the mock — and give him all the time off he needs to feel 100% again. There are lots of health-based assumptions here that I really shouldn’t be making, but I figure the underlying point is that the real Shawaryn is still really good when rested and ready gives me a little bit of moral leeway. Anyway, please don’t let this happen in real life. Shawaryn, a man (maybe) in need of a team with an expert minor league medical staff, should be kept as far a way as possible from whatever it is that’s causing all of Baltimore’s pitching prospects to fall apart.
28 – Washington Nationals – Georgetown RHP David Ellingson
This really isn’t fair to the team in our nation’s capital, but they had the top pick in back-to-back years with a generational talent waiting for them AND somehow got to watch a bunch of teams let a pair of injured stars fall into their laps. It’s only right that they get some bad draft luck for a change. The player pool is all but limited to George Washington, Georgetown, and a very small group of high school players. David Ellingson could give them some middle relief help in a few years. That’s literally better than passing on the pick, right?
29 – Washington Nationals – Georgetown RHP Matt Smith
What’s really messed up about the Nationals being stuck only picking players from DC is how close (yet so far) they are to an absolute hotbed of baseball talent. How nice would Connor Jones look in this spot? Or any one of the good to great high school prospects found in Virginia this year? We’re talking Joe Rizzo, Khalil Lee, Zach Hess, Noah Murdock, Bobby Nicholson…the list goes on. Like his once and future teammate Ellingson, Matt Smith could be a nice middle reliever down the line. That’s good, too!
30 – Texas Rangers – Alamo Heights HS RHP Forrest Whitley
A big Texan with power stuff going to the Rangers. Narratives everywhere! Though I guess he had to be a Texan automatically because that’s the whole point of the draft. And he’s the best of an underwhelming crop from the state. You could argue Nick Banks here, but I’ll go with a pitcher over the hitter to change things up. Can you tell that we’re only a few picks away from the finish line?
31 – New York Mets – Buffalo RHP Mike Kaelin
The Mets have cleaned up in some of the other drafts we’ve done so far, so I don’t feel too bad with them being challenged in our geographical version of things. Thomas Hackimer would be an equally fine pick to Mike Kaelin, but I have too much of a soft spot for the undersized reliever from Buffalo to pass on him now.
32 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Steele Canyon HS OF Avery Tuck
With all the talent in California this year — I named names in the last San Diego pick — some might be surprised to see Avery Tuck emerge as the final pick from the Golden State. I’m an unabashed fan of upside, what can I say?
33 – St. Louis Cardinals – De Smet Jesuit HS LHP Erik Miller
Making the best of being limited only to the great state of Missouri, the Cards nab the state’s best high school prospect in Erik Miller. A three-pitch lefthander with enviable size (6-5, 220), present velocity (88-93), and deception in his delivery isn’t a bad way to spend a first round pick.
34 – St. Louis Cardinals – Missouri RHP Reggie McClain
The Cardinals would have to be so jealous of the Padres in a draft like this. Reggie McClain as a consolation prize isn’t the worst thing in the world. In fact, I like the redshirt-senior quite a bit as a late single-digit round senior-sign option. Easy to love his changeup, control, and athleticism. It’s just that Howard, Miller and McClain isn’t exactly Rutherford, Brigman, and Gowdy.
2016 MLB Draft – GB%
It’s finally time for first edition of the MLB Draft Pitching Prospect GB% Index or: The Post You Make When Too Busy Driving Sixty Miles to See the Last Two Innings of Jay Groome’s 2016 Debut to Write a Few Thousand Words Otherwise. There’s more to life than keeping the ball down and getting outs on the ground, but I still think it’s interesting data to track as it provides a hint as to what type of pitcher stylistically each guy will be as a professional. Here’s what I’ve got so far…don’t read anything into the order.
Virginia RHP Connor Jones – 63.53%
Florida LHP AJ Puk – 36.73%
Oklahoma RHP Alec Hansen – 48.48%
Mississippi State RHP Dakota Hudson – 70.37%
Cal RHP Daulton Jefferies – 52.63%
Florida RHP Logan Shore – 51.47%
Winthrop LHP Matt Crohan – 34.48%
Kent State LHP Eric Lauer – 46.58%
Vanderbilt RHP Jordan Sheffield – 50.00%
Connecticut LHP Anthony Kay – 51.19%
Rice RHP Jon Duplantier – 60.49%
I wanted to include the Oregon rotation and Robert Tyler, but the box scores were a nightmare at those team sites. I think getting info on Krook and Tyler is important, so I’ll try to figure something out when I’m feeling a bit more motivated.
As for the actual data above, I’d say that Hudson’s number is eye-opening and wholly consistent with the kind of stuff he throws. Are we sure he isn’t the best college pitching prospect in the country? Crohan’s number could be considered noteworthy for teams that preach keeping the ball in the dirt, though any batted ball analysis by a big league front office would (hopefully) include more than just the difference between a ground ball out and an out recorded via the air. Take AJ Puk, for example. His number is low, but it doesn’t account for the relatively high number of infield pop-ups and weak fly balls that I’ve seen whenever I’ve watched him. It should also be noted that Crohan has pitched far less than the rest of the names on the list, so an already small sample gets even smaller. It’s all just something extra to consider when thinking about these pitchers anyway.
Who am I missing here? I’m happy to add a few more names to the list to track between now and June.
Early April College Hitting Update
It’s Monday and I’m behind on some of the conference “preview” stuff I want to publish, so let’s take a quick look instead at some of the country’s top college hitters so far in 2016. There are an infinite number of ways to approach a topic like this, so I tried to make things easy on myself by coming up with some rules to make it manageable.
First, I used college stats from Friday to sort players into categories. That gave me a one-stop shop for all my stat needs, but it necessitated a look at individual team sites last night to update the numbers to get the most recent information. That’s why you’ll see some inconsistencies between the categories and the stats of the players found under each. Secondly, I decided to focus only on draft-eligible players. That eliminated most sophomores and all freshmen. Those guys will get their fair shake in the years to come. Finally, in what may seem like a direct contradiction to the above at first, I made the cruel executive decision to skip seniors for now. I promise that they’ll get their due in an exercise similar to this closer to the draft, but for now I wanted to hone in on the players seen as better prospects by the majority. I love me a good senior-sign, but that extra year of experience gives them a bit of an unfair statistical boost. So only juniors and draft-eligible sophomores for now.
OBP over .500 and SLG over .700
C/1B Jameson Fisher (Southeastern Louisiana) – .521/.626/.872 with 25 BB/10 K and 6/11 SB in 94 AB
C/1B Zack Collins (Miami) – .416/.581/.688 – with 34 BB/16 K in 77 AB
OF Kyle Lewis (Mercer) – .426/.555/.843 – with 33 BB/17 K and 4/7 SB in 108 AB
OF Adam Groesbeck (Air Force) – .447/.520/.671 with 11 BB/8 K and 12/14 SB in 85 AB
C Logan Ice (Oregon State) – .389/.495/.792 with 14 BB/3 K and 1/1 SB in 72 AB
C Brett Cumberland (California) – .425/.552/.904 with 15 BB/18 K and 3/3 SB in 73 AB
OF Anfernee Grier (Auburn) – .442/.535/.692 with 19 BB/23 K and 14/17 SB in 120 AB
OF Tyler Ramirez (North Carolina) – .394/.508/.670 with 22 BB/21 K and 6/9 SB in 94 AB
1B Dre Gleason (Austin Peay) – .390/.487/.680 with 17 BB/24 K in 100 AB
This is the category you want to be in as a hitter. It’s a spin-off of the .600+ SLG and BB> K group I had last year. On-base skills plus power potential equals big money come draft day. Tools will always matter, but results like the ones these players are putting up will get your foot in the door even if some scouts are dubious about other aspects of your game. Luckily, many of the names on this list are likely very familiar as big-time draft prospects who combine stellar performances with big league caliber tool sets.
I’m not sure anybody doubted Jameson Fisher’s bat coming into this season, but just in case he’s gone out and picked up where he left off in his last healthy season (2014)…and then some. We’re talking a 100 AB or so sample for all of the players listed, so let’s get that caveat out of the way right now. Still, Fisher’s start to the season has been positively Bonds-ian. I haven’t heard anything about his defense this season, but I do know scouts will want to see him behind the plate a little bit more before confidently projecting him as a pro-caliber defender. If he keeps hitting like he has, however, he might get himself into the top few round conversation much like the player one spot below him on the list. I still think Zack Collins is a catcher and I still think he should be talked about as a potential option for the Phillies at 1-1. Same thing with Kyle Lewis, minus the whole catching thing.
Adam Groesbeck, known more for his speed than his potent power/patience blend coming the season, has to be in the top ten round mix at this point. Logan Ice and Brett Cumberland are Pac-12 catchers with top two round bonafides. This class and catchers, man. It’s really unbelievable. Anfernee Grier has gotten some first round buzz of late and while I’m not sure I’d go that high on him yet, he’s certainly holding up his end of the bargain here in 2016. Tyler Ramirez could get dinged some by being an undersized tweener, but teams that believe in him in center should like the all-around offensive profile that comes with it. I don’t have much of a read on what those outside my own bubble think of Dre Gleason. I could see him as a surprising inclusion in the latter half of the draft’s single-digit rounds or being a mid- to late-round pick that winds up going back to school in an attempt to raise his stock as a 2017 senior-sign. I don’t know if teams are buying his bat as real just yet; hopefully he keeps hitting and quiets the doubters.
If we tease out the members who lost their spot over the weekend, we’re left with just three players currently in the .500/.700 club: Jameson Fisher, Kyle Lewis, and Brett Cumberland. Not a bad trio.
OBP over .500
2B Nick Solak (Louisville) – .455/.564/.623 with 19 BB/8 K and 7/8 SB in 77 AB
1B Carmen Benedetti (Michigan) – .372/.526/.570 with 24 BB/11 K and 6/7 SB in 86 AB
3B Sheldon Neuse (Oklahoma) – .392/.500/.686 with 22 BB/22 K and 8/8 SB in 102 AB
2B Cavan Biggio (Notre Dame) – .330/.527/.516 with 34 BB/14 K and 8/8 SB in 91 AB
2B/3B Nick Senzel (Tennessee) – .384/.504/.646 with 24 BB/12 K and 10/11 SB in 99 AB
Nick Solak can flat hit. I’d take him on my team anytime. He’s likely locked in at second in the infield, so I don’t know how high that profile can rise but I have a hunch he’ll be higher on my rankings than he winds up getting drafted in June. I’m more than all right with that. I have a hunch that Carmen Benedetti will go out as a pitcher in pro ball, but I like his bat too much to put it on ice. I like letting two-way players with split-decision futures start as hitters with pitching as a fallback rather than the other way around. Personal preference, obviously, but I think it’s easier to pick pitching back up on the fly. Sheldon Neuse is a deep fly or two away from being in the .500/.700 club. A lot has gone wrong for Oklahoma prospects this year, but Neuse has taken a step forward both at the plate and in the field. I think he’s solidly in the second round mix. Same for Cavan Biggio, the top-ranked college hitter on my way too early 2016 college preview back from March 2015. He was one spot ahead of Neuse. Before I start patting myself on the back too hard — something I really shouldn’t be doing in the first place considering that Biggio and Neuse, much as I love both, aren’t on anybody’s board as the top two college hitters — the next three hitters were Ryan Boldt, Nick Banks, and Chris Okey. Win some, lose some. Nick Senzel has been doing a lot of winning of late. I don’t know if Baseball America’s infatuation with him is more about them or about what they are hearing from big league front offices (my guess is the former in this case), but either way he’s a damn fine player and a legitimate top ten type. I’ve taken to comparing him to Anthony Rendon. That’s pretty special.
SLG over .700
OF Heath Quinn (Samford) – .330/.455/.679 with 22 BB/27 K
Like Neuse just missing the cutoff for .500/.700 by a few bombs, Quinn came into the weekend in need of just a few extra trips to first base (or any other base for that matter) to push his OBP over .500. Along the way his slugging dipped below the .700 line, but we’ll still count it since I used Friday’s numbers to originally sort (through the NCAA stats page) despite displaying stats as of the end of the weekend (via the more quickly updated team sites). Quinn is a physical 6-3, 220 pound outfielder with speed, power, and a solid approach. I’ve heard some speculate that he’s hurt some by the overwhelming presence of Kyle Lewis in his conference, but I think that’s nuts. There’s plenty of scouting love to go around, and the more general exposure the SoCon gets, the better it is for every team and every player.
2016 MLB Draft Mock Draft – Fantasy Baseball
The 2016 MLB Draft will be here before we know it, so that can only mean one thing: it’s MOCK DRAFT season. It’s been a few years since I published a mock draft around here, but I figured it was finally time to get back in the game. Of course, since I can’t offer much in the way of insider intel — I’m not BA-era peak Jim Callis over here — putting together a mock would be pretty much pointless. With the proper analysis attached to each pick mock drafts can be fun and interesting reads, not to mention a great way of exposing casual fans — the number of people who Google “2016 mlb mock draft” that find this site is insane, at least relative to the four people who read on their own volition otherwise — to players they might have not yet heard of. I might attempt a mock like that between now and June. Or not. Either way, this ain’t it.
So until then (or not) we’ll have some fun and take the idea of a mock draft to the logical extreme. If “mock” means to make something seem laughably unreal or impossible, let’s make our mock draft as unreal or impossible as we can. Our third edition of this 2016 MLB Mock Draft is based on fantasy value. Fantasy baseball is HUGE, like it or not. I play it largely because it’s become a means of staying close to a group of friends who share a common love (baseball), something that becomes increasingly difficult once you reach a certain age. Were it not for that reason, I’m not sure I’d still do it. I mention that not to be one of those too cool for school fantasy haters, but because I want it to be clear that I’m terrible at fantasy sports. I try to not be terrible, yet every season the Big Hurters are sitting in the bottom half of the standings. So, take the fantasy analysis here with all the skepticism you can muster.
Before we get into the picks, a few words about how our league operates…because there’s nothing more compelling to read about than other people’s fantasy teams. We’re a keeper league that allows each owner to retain up to eight big league players season to season. We also have shallow minor league systems of four players for each team. Categories are a mix of standard stuff that I hate but are necessary evils (wins, ERA, RBI) and analytical standards like OBP (instead of BA) and…actually I think that might be it. That’s fantasy for you, I guess.
I wasn’t sure how this mock would work out, but I think it winds up making a bit of sense. I enjoyed how attempting to create a board for a fantasy league with limited minor league keepers (four in our case) reflected the balance of upside and certainty that is such a big part of the real MLB Draft each year. You want the best possible player, obviously, but do you want to wait upwards of five years to reap the benefits? You might not be friends with your fellow owners by then! My own brother left the league this past year! With the real draft, any long-term pick like that has to be made with the acknowledgment that the person doing the picking might not hold the same job by the time the prospect turns into a player. On the other hand, if you go with more of a quick-moving “sure thing,” then, fine, maybe you get what you were expecting…but what you were expecting was a competent yet wholly unexciting big league player. That guy holds far more value in real life than fantasy so the comparison begins to show some cracks here, but drafting for star impact, especially with a top ten pick, is something that I believe bad teams need to be willing to do. I think the risk/reward balance is well-represented here, though your mileage might vary.
So, again, this isn’t a “real” mock draft, whatever that is. It’s a mock draft forcing big league teams to keep long-term fantasy implications in mind. Here we go…
1 – Philadelphia Phillies – LHP Jay Groome (Barnegat HS, New Jersey)
Risk gets thrown out the window when the reward is the closest thing to a future number one starting pitcher in this class. Working in Jay Groome’s favor is how advanced he is for a teenager. Unlike with many high school prospects, the expectation of a five year (give or take) waiting period does not apply. A big league cameo in September 2019 a month after turning 21-years-old is in play. Whether we’re talking fantasy or real life, nobody has to be told how rare true big league ace upside is. Adding Groome to the Phillies sudden — love how only in a baseball rebuild could eighteen months or so be considered sudden — pitching surplus would give them a potential difference-maker to pair with their otherwise more good than great (yet plentiful) collection of young hurlers.
2 – Cincinnati Reds – OF Corey Ray (Louisville)
I’m terrible at fantasy for a lot of reasons, but one flaw of mine that puts me at or near the bottom each year is my unique talent for completely ignoring certain categories. Drafting a player like Ben Revere fifteen rounds earlier than his overall talent level deserves just for the steals feels so dirty to me. I just can’t bring myself to do it. Corey Ray would be the kind of prospect who would help a dope like me salvage the steals category because he’s a damn good ballplayer who happens to rack up steals rather than a one-tool type who specializes in speed. A Winker-Hamilton-Ray outfield would give you a little bit of everything: speed, pop, speed, defense, speed, speed, patience, and speed. Bonus points for Louisville actually being just about as close to Cincinnati as Barnegat HS is to Philadelphia.
3 – Atlanta Braves – C Zack Collins (Miami)
Those two picks were easy. Now it’s truly anybody’s game. Collins has massive power, outstanding plate discipline, and enough defensive talent to (at minimum) follow the Kyle Schwarber “catch just enough to maintain fantasy eligibility behind the plate” early big league career path. Collins could catch for the Braves or force an eventual Freddie Freeman blockbuster trade out of town. Win-win!
4 – Colorado Rockies – 2B/3B Nick Senzel (Tennessee)
Power, speed, patience, and potential positional versatility make Senzel a surprisingly easy pick here. Considering I personally decided to keep Anthony Rendon, I support an early minor league selection of the prospect who reminds me of the current Nationals star. Meanwhile the Rockies can continue their recent trend of loading up on quality infielders like Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Forrest Wall, Ryan McMahon, Tyler Nevin, and Brendan Rodgers. I don’t know how that future infield would shake out in time, but I’m fairly certain it would wind up as one of the league’s best.
5 – Milwaukee Brewers – OF Bryan Reynolds (Vanderbilt)
This one even took me back me a little bit, I won’t lie. You’d think the guy controlling all the picks wouldn’t be surprised by what transpires in his draft, but the brain works in mysterious ways. This is also the point where I remind everybody that this is a weird theme mock draft and not a representation of what I would necessarily do. Reynolds over personal favorite Kyle Lewis pains me, but that little edge in playable speed on the base paths makes Reynolds the more appealing fantasy target. Plus, if we’re trying to make this even more representative of what might go down in a real fantasy draft, the national cache that being a Vanderbilt product brings gets Reynolds a boost, especially when compared to Lewis’s Mercer background. That’s not me talking, that’s the common fantasy fan! The “hey, I’ve heard of him” phenomenon with prospects is very real. Score one for Dansby Swanson, Sonny Gray, David Price, and the SEC Network. I love how the Brewers have drafted outfielders in recent years, swinging for the fences with high upside talents like Trent Clark, Monte Harrison, and Demi Orimoloye. Adding Reynolds to that mix along with Brett Phillips, Clint Coulter, and Michael Reed would give them plenty of options going forward.
6 – Oakland Athletics – 1B Will Craig (Wake Forest)
I’ve been calling Will Craig the next AJ Reed for a while now. AJ Reed went way, way too early in the big league portion of our fantasy draft last night. That tells me two things: 1) somebody in our league massively overrated the impact that AJ Reed will make on the big leagues this year, especially early on (i.e., stashing any minor league player on your bench for as long as Reed is expected to be in the minors is a tough pill to swallow), and 2) we, as a league, will respond to “missing” on Reed in the minor league acquisition phase last year by massively overrating a player one draft site once called “the next AJ Reed.” It’s also worth pointing out for context’s sake that quality first basemen tend to be held on to forever in this league. There are no Goldschmidt’s, Rizzo’s, Votto’s, Abreu’s, or Cabrera’s to be found on draft day here. Big bats are always needed and Craig has one of the biggest in this class. And a masher like Craig could bring back some of the old school power and patience days that the A’s were known for not too long ago.
7 – Miami Marlins – OF Kyle Lewis (Mercer)
I think I want this to happen just to see Kyle Lewis and Giancarlo Stanton hanging out in the outfield corners in Miami together. I’m certain they’d be friends in short order. Like many players picked already, Lewis brings serious thump and enough on-base skills to be a solid long-term fantasy keeper. The scary thing about Lewis is that as good as he’s been the past calendar year, it’s clear to anybody who has seen him that his star is still ascending. That’s rare for a college junior. For the purpose of our very specific and silly exercise, he’s helped somewhat by our league foolishly eliminating the CF distinction from the outfield group; where there was once a need for every team to start a CF, now all outfield positions are counted as one. Lewis’s fantasy stock takes a small hit due to the lack of steals on his résumé, but, hey, nobody’s perfect.
8 – San Diego Padres – 3B Nolan Jones (Holy Ghost Prep, Pennsylvania)
Though listed as a third baseman, Nolan Jones could be the type of special athlete good enough to stick at shortstop long enough to make fantasy owners happy. Many — myself included — have been quick to shift the powerful 6-5, 220 pounder to third in the pros, but that doesn’t guarantee anything. Shortstops who can hit and move like Jones are incredibly value in both real life and fantasy, but the third base spot in a keeper league like ours can be just as devoid as re-draft talent. The best third basemen on the board last night were Evan Longoria, Kyle Seager, and…Justin Turner? The undrafted Travis Shaw and Jake Lamb were next on my personal board. Bottom line is simple: if you can play the left side of the infield and do positive things offensively, you’re fantasy gold. Shameless brag/plus of the week: assuming the weather holds, I’m set to see Jones next week on Thursday and Saturday. Do I think that Jones could be sneaky competition to Jay Groome as a 1-1 possibility with local ties to the Phillies? Stay tuned!
9 – Detroit Tigers – OF Mickey Moniak (La Costa Canyon HS, California)
The Mickey Moniak vs Blake Rutherford debate sure to pick up steam as we get closer to June makes an appearance in this very mock. Moniak gets the win thanks to his fantasy-approved advantages in speed and on-base ability. The potential for a on-base monster who runs down balls in center and piles up steals is very real with Moniak. I enjoy Moniak so much as a prospect that I have a difficult time forming coherent thoughts around him. Here are a few sentences that I wrote but couldn’t tie together in a cohesive paragraph designed to describe how much Moniak as a hitter. He can literally hit the ball anywhere on the diamond with authority. Watching him pepper the whole field is an absolute treat for any fan of the game. His approach at the plate is better than all but the smallest number of college prospects three years his senior. The improvements he’s made from last summer to this spring are incredibly impressive; he’s become a more complete hitter and improved both his arm strength and accuracy of his throws. His hands work fast and his bat speed is the kind that sends a buzz through any scouting section. I’ll compose myself just enough to say that if Moniak does get to the Tigers in real life, he’ll very likely enter his first full season as the organization’s number one prospect, at least depending on how Beau Burrows throws in 2016 and whether or not Michael Fulmer sticks in the big leagues long enough.
10 – Chicago White Sox – SS Delvin Perez (International Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
If I was really doing this right, Delvin Perez would be higher than ten. I obsess about amateur baseball and the MLB Draft all year long. That makes me (and maybe you, dear reader) part of a comically small minority of baseball fans. That means that most baseball fans only begin following the draft in the immediate days before and after the first players are off the board. Minor league prospect coverage (and interest) has blown up in my lifetime, but amateur ball is still very much a niche thing. Most baseball fans would draft for their minor league fantasy teams based on fairly limited information. The fact that Delvin Perez’s name has been mentioned in the same breath as Carlos Correa’s would give a fantasy owner more than enough ammo to overdraft this year’s top prep shortstop. So, yeah, ten would be a steal in this universe. Maybe even the real one, too. I had a tangent ready to go about the White Sox having a really bad run of shortstops in my lifetime, but upon closer inspection it hasn’t been that bad. Not great, but not horrible. Still, with apologies to Tim Anderson, Perez would stand to be Chicago’s best hope at shortstop in quite some time if this is the pick.
11 – Seattle Mariners – OF Blake Rutherford (Chaminade Prep HS, California)
At some point it’s prudent to move away from the safety of college hitters and roll the dice on one of the best high school athletes in the country. Blake Rutherford is just that. Him being older than ideal for a high school senior gives real MLB teams drafting in the top five something extra to consider, but it could work to his advantage developmentally in terms of fantasy. He’s a little bit older, a little bit more filled-out, and a little bit more equipped to deal with the daily rigors of professional ball than your typical high school prospect. That’s some extreme spin about one of Rutherford’s bigger red flags — admittedly one that is easily resolved within a scouting department: either his age matters or not since it’s not like it’s changing (except up by one day like us all) any time soon — but talking oneself into glossing over a weakness is exactly what fantasy drafting is all about. I like Rutherford more in this range in the real draft than in the mix at 1-1. The Seattle system is desperate for the kind of raw talent that Rutherford provides.
12 – Boston Red Sox – OF Buddy Reed (Florida)
I’m as fascinated by Buddy Reed as the next guy, but this would be a reach. Of the trio of college outfielders everybody liked to crash the top half of the first round party this June, the rangy Reed has done the least to impress in 2016. That doesn’t mean he’s been bad — he hasn’t been — but I think it’s safe to say he’s fallen clearly behind both Corey Ray and Kyle Lewis and potentially even further than that. There have been a lot of college outfielders (including one in Reed’s conference who should be off the board shortly) who have turned big tools into big production this spring that are now positioned to challenge Reed for third best college outfield prospect in the class. Still, Reed is a plus-plus runner with the athletic background that points to potential for as yet untapped upside with the bat. He doesn’t run quite like Billy Hamilton — a kept player in our league for what I have to assume are his steals and steals alone — because nobody runs quite like Billy Hamilton, but his realistic floor as a fantasy asset could be on that level. Even if the bat doesn’t come around, he could have enough speed and range in CF to get regular time in the big leagues. There’s no doubt that Peter Gammons would love the pick of a New England prep player turned college star in real life, so that’s good enough for me. The Gammons checklist for lifelong Twitter updates: 1) Does he have a New England connection in any way?, 2) Did he attend or consider attending North Carolina?, 3) Has he played on the Cape?, and 4) At any point in his life, has he owned any Red Sox paraphernalia?
13 – Tampa Bay Rays – 3B Josh Lowe (Pope HS, Georgia)
I know Mickey Moniak has the alliterative name thing going for him, but Josh Lowe is the closest thing to a Marvel-style super hero in this year’s high school class. What can’t he do? Three clear plus tools (power, arm, speed) with two sure to help in fantasy, stellar defense at the hot corner, elite athleticism, and the fallback option of taking his talents (90-95 FB, intriguing CU and SL) to the mound. Lowe has the raw talent to be one of the best third basemen in baseball. The Evan Longoria runs through 2038 — fine, I looked it up and it’s only 2022 guaranteed with a 2023 team option — so this would be a gamble on talent over necessity.
14 – Cleveland Indians – LHP AJ Puk (Florida)
At some point in the draft, name recognition wins out. AJ Puk’s connection to the 1-1 spot in the real MLB Draft has made him one of the handful of names familiar to any fan with a passing interest in prospecting. People know Puk, people like Puk, and people will gravitate to Puk on draft day. I’m not sure if I’d take him this high in this draft or the real one, but I do understand the appeal of a hard-throwing lefthander with size coming out of a major program. Perhaps the Indians would be better equipped with a conventional college arm like Puk than with whatever has gone down lately with Trevor Bauer. I’m sure there’s a lot there that the general public doesn’t know about, but it’s still surprising that they deemed him not quite good enough to crack their rotation this year. If that felt like a gratuitous mention of Bauer, it was. I’m contractually obligated to mention him every few weeks or else.
15 – Minnesota Twins – C Matt Thaiss (Virginia)
We count OBP rather than BA as a category in this league, so it’s likely that owners would take note of Matt Thaiss’s 17 BB/2 K start and file him away as somebody worth getting to know a bit more intimately. Catchers who get can get on base and flash serious power upside are fun. The Twins minor league system is a who’s who of college catchers from the past three or four drafts, so Thaiss would fit right in.
16 – Los Angeles Angels – OF Anfernee Grier (Auburn)
That power/speed combination is what everybody is looking for. Anfernee Grier has it. He’s got the chance to hit on top of a big league lineup for a long time. The Angels could pick me in this spot and it would still instantly be the most interesting prospect in the system.
17 – Houston Astros – RHP Riley Pint (St. Thomas Aquinas HS, Kansas)
A fantasy pick on a guy like Riley Pint is truly going all-in on upside. There have been a lot of challengers to his throne this spring, but Pint’s raw stuff is still the most impressive of any high school arm in this class. He’s the only prep prospect that I’m confident in putting future plus grades on three different pitches. Jay Groome, Ian Anderson, Alex Speas, Austin Bergner, and Forrest Whitley all could get there, but Pint’s already convinced me. He’s the singular most talented pitching prospect in the country. So why is listed as a mid-first round pick and not a slam dunk 1-1 here? If you’re reading this on your own volition — and I certainly hope there’s no crazed lunatic out there forcing random people to visit my site; that’s my job! — then you already know. Pint’s delivery has many of the smarter public talent evaluators concerned about how he’ll hold up pitching every fifth day. I’m less concerned about that because I’m fairly stubborn in my belief that there’s no such thing as “bad mechanics” since the mere act of throwing a baseball is bad and unnatural by definition. I’m just looking for a guy with athleticism who can repeat whatever he is doing on the mound consistently with an open-mindedness to receiving instruction and a willingness to adjust aspects of his craft as needed. I think Pint fits that bill. The one knock on the fire-balling righthander that I think could have some merit is the concern over his risk of injury going forward. Again, this isn’t something that I’m crazy with concern about — pitchers get hurt, so you have to be ready for that inevitability with any pitching prospect — but the idea that Pint’s most obvious selling point (100 MPH!) could also be his biggest red flag (too much velocity too soon) intrigues the heck out of me. That’s straight out of Shakespeare or The Twilight Zone or something. Red flags or not, Pint’s arm talent is unmistakable. He’s well worth a shot here and likely a whole heck of a lot higher. He’d be on my shortlist at 1-1 if I had a say.
18 – New York Yankees – RHP Cal Quantrill (Stanford)
The attrition at the top of the college pitching pile has left Cal Quantrill, yet to pitch in 2016 as he recovers from last year’s Tommy John surgery, one of the college game’s most intriguing mound prospects. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, right? I wonder if the star student out of Stanford knew this and staged the whole elbow injury to allow time for his competition to implode all over the place. That’s a joke. Not a good one, but a joke all the same.
19 – New York Mets – RHP Alec Hansen (Oklahoma)
The biggest current question mark in the college game has to be Alec Hansen. He’s steadily pitched his way from the 1-1 conversation to the top five to the top ten to potentially all the way out of the first round. I’m no doctor — just a man who loves him some unsourced speculation — but the dots that connect Hansen’s summer away from the mound (forearm tightness) to his dreadful 2016 start are enough to raise an eyebrow. Truthfully, disclosure of a potential injury might just be the best thing that could happen to his draft stock at this point. I’ve linked Hansen’s rise and (as it has turned out) fall to that of Michael Matuella’s from last year. Still think that’s likely how this all plays out come June, but we’ll see. A healthy Hansen with the right kind of professional coaching could front a rotation. That’s why this pick works sooner in fantasy than I think it would in real life. Upside, upside, upside. If it fails, you’re out of a minor league draft pick…and not a couple million bucks and the opportunity cost of landing an impact talent otherwise as if you were picking for real. The Mets making this pick in real life would be intriguing as hell. On one hand, gambling on a potential ace just when some of your other young pitchers are starting to get expensive could be a genius way to replenish what you’ve been building. On the other hand, a little more certainty than Hansen might be prudent since the core you’ve build is so good that supplementing it rather than replacing it should be the priority. Either way, this would be fun.
20 – Los Angeles Dodgers – LHP Matt Krook (Oregon)
The selection of Matt Krook continues to recent run on risky arms that could wind up as legitimate big league aces if everything works out. He’d be perfect for the Dodgers!
21 – Toronto Blue Jays – RHP Dakota Hudson (Missisippi State)
This feels too low for Dakota Hudson, but I think the casual fantasy fan in this scenario might still be sleeping on him a bit. The guy I’ve comped him to in the past, Taijuan Walker, was one of the kept big league players in our league, so I can’t imagine why the potential college version couldn’t get similar attention. Hudson is awesome. I think he’s in play for 1-1 in real life and on the shortlist for best college arm in the country. Toronto would run this pick up to the podium if that’s a thing that ever actually happened in real life.
22 – Pittsburgh Pirates – RHP Alex Speas (McEachern HS, Georgia)
Alex Speas has gotten a very reluctant comparison to Dwight Gooden from Perfect Game. I don’t know how much fantasy league players read Perfect Game since it’s almost entirely all amateur baseball talk with little to no pro coverage, but all it takes is one clever owner wanting a head’s up on the next generation of prospects to have a subscription and stumble across that particular post. Feel like seeing that makes Speas a damn-near automatic pick, right? I should reiterate that the comparison made was done so with the utmost respectful hesitation. Gooden was one of those scouting unicorns that was so special as a talent that it’ll forever be difficult to see him in anybody else. The fact that Speas even got that mention is a compelling enough case to draft him and wait out his (hopeful) rise to the big leagues. An organization known for their ability to transition talented throwers to successful pitchers would be as close to an ideal of a landing spot for Speas as possible.
23 – St. Louis Cardinals – SS Colby Woodmansee (Arizona State)
College shortstop? Check. High probability at staying up the middle as a pro? Check. Flashes of power and patience? Check. Colby Woodmansee hits all the fantasy checkpoints with the exception of any expectation of stolen bases. Shortstop just so happens to be a gigantic organizational hole for the Cardinals, so Woodmansee’s path to playing time would be free and clear. The objective part of my brain knows this isn’t true, but the amateur baseball loving side wonders if he wouldn’t represent the best current option in the organization at short in light of Jhonny Peralta’s thumb injury.
24 – San Diego Padres – OF Will Benson (The Westminster Schools, Georgia)
The name Will Benson brings about all kinds of colorful opinions from those paid to watch him regularly. To call him a divisive prospect at this point would be an understatement. If you love him, then you love his power upside, defensive aptitude, and overwhelming physicality. If you’re cool on him, then he’s more of a future first baseman with a questionable hit tool, inconsistent approach, and overrated athleticism. I’m closer to the love said than not, but I think both the lovers and the haters can at least agree that his bat speed is explosive, his frame is intriguing, and his sheer strength as a human being should beget some monstrous BP performances. He’d be the rare type of hitter who could make Petco look small.
25 – San Diego Padres – RHP Connor Jones (Virginia)
Connor Jones represents the best cross-section of upside and safety in this year’s college pitching class. Assuming non-catastrophic injury, I’d be stunned if he doesn’t wind up at least somewhere around a big league starter. That’s about where I’d put his reasonable upside as well: solid big league starting pitcher. There’s a chance for more, of course, due in large part to his dynamic one-two offspeed combo of an upper-80s splitter and a low- to mid-80s slider. I’ve comped him to Masahiro Tanaka at the highest of high ceiling projections, so, yeah, I like him. Future mid-rotation arms are tremendous real life assets, but fairly boring in fantasy land. That depresses his stock somewhat here, but the upside is still high enough to make him a fantasy first rounder. His high floor is exactly what could attract him to the Padres here as they’d have the chance to diversify their draft portfolio after nabbing a pair of high school prospects (Nolan Jones and Will Benson) earlier.
26 – Chicago White Sox – SS Bryson Brigman (San Diego)
All of the boxes checked by Woodmansee above apply to Bryson Brigman as well. I could easily see the two being flipped based on the personal preference of the owner doing the drafting. You’re trading off some raw power in return for a bigger threat on the bases. So if you’ve got a need for speed, Brigman would be the pick. There’s a chance that the White Sox just locked in their double-play combo for the next decade with this pick and the earlier selection of Delvin Perez.
27 – Baltimore Orioles – 3B Logan Gray (Austin Peay State)
All Logan Gray does is hit. There’s no point in me doubting him anymore. I’m sure there are scouts who don’t love every aspect of his swing or his bat speed or the way he circles the bases after hitting yet another home run, but at some point his extended run of hitting, hitting, and hitting some more has to matter. His athleticism and speed should translate to some steals (double-digits upside?) as he climbs the ladder and his power should play.
28 – Washington Nationals – 3B Carter Kieboom (Walton HS, Georgia)
Carter Kieboom is listed at third, but recent impressive defensive showings could allow him to remain at shortstop for the foreseeable future. If that’s the case, he could jump ten or more spots up these rankings because the bat is legit.
29 – Washington Nationals – 1B Pete Alonso (Florida)
This would be something of an overdraft, but you have to pay big if you want bats you can count on in fantasy. Pete Alonso is a good enough hitter that I think he’ll carve out a long-term big league role in some capacity before too long, possibly in a manner not unlike Preston Tucker has done with the Astros. Or something like that. I’m terrible at fantasy and only halfway decent at prospects, so I should really quit while I’m behind here.
30 – Texas Rangers – RHP Daulton Jefferies (California)
There’s nothing that really gets the blood flowing when it comes to Daulton Jefferies, but sometimes paying for certainty makes sense. That might directly contradict something I said in another pick, but nobody is reading all of these so we’re good. The older Jefferies comp to Walker Buehler, a big draft favorite last year, remains a good one. I can’t remember if it was Frankie Piliere or Aaron Fitt who came up with it, but I like it. Fastball-slider-change is a fine way to go through lineups.
31 – New York Mets – RHP Ian Anderson (Shenendehowa HS, New York)
A pre-season FAVORITE who has only gone on to bigger and better things in the interim, Ian Anderson can make a case for being the top prep righthander in this class. He’s one of the handful of young arms with the potential for three plus pitches — 88-94 fastball (95 peak), 77-80 breaking ball, and a 80-85 change — but what truly separates him from the pack is his ten years in the big league veteran command. Fantasy owners rightfully scared off by high school pitchers — so far from the big leagues with so much time to get hurt! — not named Groome and Pint would be wise to include Anderson in that big three on draft day. One scout friend of mine called Anderson a “more explosive Aaron Nola.” A little bit of upside (or a lot), a little bit of certainty (very little, but still more than most HS arms)…where do I sign up?
32 – Los Angeles Dodgers – RHP Forrest Whitley (Alamo Heights HS, Texas)
You really shouldn’t have a first round mock draft that doesn’t include at least one big prep righthander from Texas. It just doesn’t feel right. Whitley, standing in at a strapping 6-7, 240 pounds, has the requisite fastball velocity (88-94, 96 peak) to pair with a cadre of power offspeed stuff. We’re talking a devastating when on upper-80s cut-slider and an average or better mid-80s split-change that has been clocked as high as 90 MPH. I’m not sure how power on power on power would work against pro hitters — this is NOT a comp, but I guess Jake Arrieta has found a way to do it — but I’m looking forward to finding out.
33 – St. Louis Cardinals – OF Avery Tuck (Steele Canyon HS, California)
Avery Tuck, or West Coast Will Benson (kind of) as he’s known around here, is about as boom or bust as you get in this year’s high school hitting class. He 100% looks the part and his athletic abilities are off the charts, but the question that has dogged him since he first broke onto the prospect scene — will he make enough contact to put his gifts to use at the pro level? — remains open for interpretation. If he hits, he’s a star. If not, well, when’s the last time you’ve heard a success story about a guy who can’t hit making it big in pro ball?
34 – St. Louis Cardinals – SS Stephen Alemais (Tulane)
A no-doubter at shortstop with a chance to be consistently average or better at the plate and on the base paths? Yes, please. Stephen Alemais’s offensive contributions should fall closer to solid than spectacular, but the 99.99% likelihood he remains at short for the next decade or longer gives him clear fantasy value. If Woodmansee isn’t the answer, then maybe Alemais can get it done.
2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – Big West
It’s lame to mention the same comp in back-to-back days, but…I don’t know how to finish this sentence. I’m lame, I guess. Yesterday we evoked the name Kevin Newman as part of a hybrid Newman/Scott Kingery comp for Bryson Brigman. Today Newman’s name gets thrown around again when discussing Garrett Hampson. The shortstop from Long Beach has a fascinating set of tools that engenders wildly variable opinions from those who have seen him. We’ll get into that a bit more later, but first let’s get back to that Newman comp.
Comparing almost any amateur prospect to Newman is tough (and possibly useless) because the crazy high hit tool bar set by the former Arizona star after a pair of otherworldly summers on the Cape should not be ignored. That should be reason enough not to use him as a comp two days in a row, but…we’ve now hit sentence number two where I don’t know how to finish. I’m stubborn, I guess. I liked but didn’t love Newman last year – ranked him 31st, drafted 19th – but his track record with wood makes him a bit of a prospect unicorn and, no matter your opinion about his long-term future, a comparison that really ought not to be thrown around lightly. I wouldn’t put Hampson’s straight hit tool up against Newman’s, but even at a notch below there are enough other general similarities that make the comparison work. Contextual comps for life. The closest match between the respective games of Hampson and Newman comes down to instincts in all phases. “Special” is the word most often used to describe the way Hampson’s instincts allow him to do things that his raw physical abilities might otherwise not. Like Newman, his arm might be a little light for the left side of the infield; also like Newman, his arm plays up thanks to his skill in turning a quick transfer from glove to throwing motion (hot baseball fan take: a quick release can make up for a lesser arm easier than the other way around) and general aptitude for being in the right place at the right time to get off any number of throws from funky angles that don’t always look pretty but find a way to first base.
Attempts at getting a consensus view on Hampson’s foot speed has me completely turned around. I’ve gotten plus-plus, plus, and average, and the split between plus and average is just about even. My hunch here is that we’re seeing the difference between when and where he’s being timed. On his own batted balls, I could see his times playing closer to average because that’s more representative of his raw ability. However on first to thirds, the combination of his reads, jumps, and hustle helps bump his times up just enough to hit closer to the plus range. This is all just a theory, mind you, and it still likely doesn’t explain the disparity between an average time and plus-plus (easiest explanation for that: scouts are human) spread of times, but the fact we see another example of one his tools playing up thanks to his feel for the game is noteworthy. Stuff like this is representative of the kind of player you’ll get with Hampson. He’s got a good looking swing geared for a lot of contact (my not a scout observation is that he’s one of those guys who can manipulate the bat so that the fat part stays in the zone a long time), playable speed and arm strength that you can round up due to his instincts, and impressive overall athleticism. I’d call him a high-floor/low-ceiling prospect, but I think that mischaracterizes the value of a starting big league shortstop; perhaps it goes without saying, but a utility player floor (best case) and average or so regular (again, best case) ceiling means something different at different positions on the diamond. Hampson won’t be a star, but the simple fact his ceiling could be a regular at short (or even second) gives him more value than his tools suggest.
As for the downside, we’ll refer back to old friend Kevin Newman. This is where I finished with him last year offensively…
Newman’s feel for hitting is special, but, as a guy who will always believe the hit tool is king, it pains me to admit a hit tool alone is not enough to equate to future impact regular. Pro pitchers attack hitters with minimal power differently than amateurs. In no way should all hitters be expected to come into pro ball with 20+ HR/season ability, but the threat of extra base power is needed to get the pitches and favorable hitting counts that lead to good things. It’s considerably more difficult to hit .300 with minimal power at the highest level than it is in college and in the lower-minors. I’m not bold enough to unequivocally say that Newman can’t do it, but the odds are stacked against him.
and this was the final amateur defensive verdict…
Though his superior instincts, first step quickness, and quick release all give him a shot to stick at the six-spot, his lackluster arm strength and limited range make him a better long-term fit at second base. Part of my thought process changing had to do with seeing more of him on the field (with two caveats: I’m a fan, not a scout, and it was video, not live), part of it had to do with hearing from trusted contacts who did see him up close a lot more than I could have hoped to, and part of it was my own evolving view of how important arm strength is for a shortstop. We’ve become so accustomed to thinking that third base is the infield position where the biggest arm is needed, but after focusing more closely on some of the throws that big league shortstops are asked to make deep into the hole as their momentum carries them away from their target, I’d argue that shortstop is where ideally your strongest arm would go. That’s not Newman, and I think that the rest of the industry will realize that sooner rather than later.
The question then becomes whether or not I think Hampson can succeed in the same way I think Newman will (solid regular at second) even with a lesser hit tool. I think I do, but no so strongly that I’d use a top hundred pick to see it through. Of course, there are also the additional questions about how closely remaining abilities – namely range, arm, and speed – compare to Newman’s. It’s my belief that he’s at least as strong in each of those areas as Newman, but reasonable minds can differ. Those tools added up give him a slightly better chance to succeed at shortstop in the pros, but the safest outcome is still average or so regular at second. Kind of like Kevin Newman.
Dempsey Grover is – stop me if you’ve heard this before – another college catcher in this class with top ten round ability. I’d personally go even higher than that, but I’m hedging some because of the lack of national buzz currently surrounding his name. He’s good enough defensively to stay behind the plate, his arm is plenty strong, and both his power and approach have taken big steps ahead so far in 2016. I still need to know more about his overall game, but the temptation to rank him atop the entire Big West prospect list was very real. If he’s as good as I think he is, then he stands to become the first Dempsey to reach the big leagues, assuming we don’t count guys like Rick Dempsey and Gerald Dempsey Posey. You might know that last guy by the name Buster.
Also in the running for top prospect here is Grover’s teammate Andrew Calica. Of all the non-obvious (say, those unlikely to be first day selections) prospects in this class, Calica might be the guy closest to the Platonic ideal of what it means to be a FAVORITE on this site. Calica’s impressive hit tool, easy center field range, above-average to plus speed, and solid arm strength all give him the look of at least a potential quality backup at the pro level. I’d go a step further: Calica has consistently shown every tool save power throughout his career, and even his weakest area isn’t all that weak. He’s able to put himself into enough advantageous hitting counts to allow his sneaky pop (“burgeoning” is how it was recently described to me) to make him some degree of a threat to opposing pitchers who think they can sneak good fastballs by him. Center field tools, an advanced approach, and just enough pop all add up to a pretty intriguing talent.
Yusuke Akitoshi and Timmy Richards have taken different paths to arrive at the similar position as potential utility players of note at the next level. Both are athletic, reliable defenders with enough speed and pop to contribute a little something out of the eight-hole in the lineup as pros. On the other end of the defensive spectrum is Branden Berry, the transfer from Washington. Berry’s early season offensive explosion may just be the case of an older guy picking on younger competition – his first three seasons were remarkably consistent in a good college player kind of way – but in a class thin on big bats, he could have scouts doing a double-take.
While Berry has exceeded any and all expectations so far this season, the same can’t be said for other hitters in the Big West. I’ve touched on the general early season ineffectiveness of the highly hyped Hawaii hitters in other places so far. Because none of us know anything – how I’ve been allowed to do this for eight years now defies all logic – it makes perfect sense that one of the least discussed Hawaii position player prospects coming into the year has gotten off the best start in 2016. Jacob Sheldon-Collins has clearly outperformed his universally acclaimed teammate Marcus Doi as well as his less-heralded but still overhyped by me (whoops) double-play partner Josh Rojas. Amateur production isn’t everything, but it is something. Sheldon-Collins has managed to parlay his high-contact approach with steady defense at short to put himself on the prospect map. Doi and Rojas can still be found on said map, but the days of thinking they were top ten round certainties have passed. Doi, the old scouting favorite of many thanks to a hit tool I’ve heard some go as high as plus on, has the better shot to rise back into that range than Rojas, a junior college transfer who has taken longer than ideal adjusting to life as a D1 ballplayer.
From one slow starting FAVORITE (Rojas) to another we go. Rojas came into the year with a mature approach at the plate as his supposed calling card. So far, it hasn’t quite worked out. On the other hand, Vince Fernandez has long been a FAVORITE despite a questionable at best approach. That’s begun to catch up with him some on these rankings – no shame in being ranked tenth, but if we were talking sheer physical ability he’d be top three – and it’s officially fair to wonder if he’s ever going to be the kind of hitter I once thought he could be. That alone obviously wouldn’t disqualify him from a long, prosperous professional career, though his stalled development has to be a cause for concern even for those who are more willing than myself to believe he’ll figure things out as a hitter. For what it’s worth, Fernandez has gotten a steady stream of compliments about his approach over the years; it’s exactly that type of positive feedback (combined with average to above-average raw power, above-average speed, and considerable bat speed, all of which are no small things) that made him a FAVORITE in the first place. We’ve seen the scouts – we’ll pretend that my presentation here of THE SCOUTS somehow equates to a monolithic being with one set opinion on each player across the country with no room for dissenting opinions – hit big on many of the position players in this class with notes that read “good approach” and BB/K ratios coming into the year that would have you believe scouting is a big old waste of time. The most famous example of this is Kyle Lewis. Fernandez hasn’t been able to join the “hey these scouts might know what they are talking about after all and sometimes a player can improve in incremental ways that aren’t really reflected in the numbers until BOOM one day it clicks and they are” group just yet, but the overarching success of players like him gives me some hope it could still happen. Kyle Lewis being able to do this really ought to have no impact on whether or not Vince Fernandez can do something similar, but the fact that it can and does happen is enough to keep hope alive for him. There’s still a lot of season left…and potentially a senior season if it comes to it.
There’s a large group of prospects bunched up at the tail end of this ranking that probably no longer merit draft consideration. I’ll be curious to cross-reference this collection of “not quite there” prospects with those in other major conferences to see if it’s simply something that happens to the big boys (more overall talent at the start begets more “disappointing” prospects at the end) or if there just happens to be an unusually high number of developmental misses in the Big West this year. Of course, neither option could be the answer as it could just mean I misjudged the lot of these players in my initial evaluation. It’s not them, it’s me. Whatever the reason, there are a lot of talented players here that haven’t produced enough to warrant much draft attention this spring.
The two names that best exemplify what I’m trying to discuss are Cameron Olson and Spencer O’Neil. Just look at what I wrote about Olson last year…
UC Davis JR C Cameron Olson hasn’t been able to put it all together quite yet, but if he does then it’ll be worth the wait. His plus raw power and plus arm strength combination is what evaluators dream about.
I still can’t quite quit Olson, but it might be time to finally admit it’s not going to happen for him as a hitter. Approach matters. Last year’s take on O’Neil, a player once comped to Paul O’Neill for what I have to assume were reasons that went beyond their similar last names, began to hint at the cracks in his game…
I still have the quote saved from when rJR OF Spencer O’Neil left Oregon after the 2013 season: he “decided to pursue other opportunities” and that was that. Well he’s back playing D1 ball this year and I’m damn pleased to see it. There’s the big question as to whether his approach will remain a hindrance to his overall game, especially after a year at junior college that showed little to no gains from his freshman season at Oregon (from 6 BB and 32 K at Oregon to 8 BB and 30 K at Central Arizona). I liken him to a power pitcher capable of hitting the mid-90s with a darting fastball that he has no idea how to harness effectively. The raw talent is obvious, but bridging the gap from prospect to player is going to take a lot more work than your typical draftable college bat.
The former Duck still looks good in a uniform with exactly the kind of tantalizing power upside one would expect from a guy his size with his brand of sweet stroke. Unfortunately, approach matters. Unfortunately again, I’m a weak, stubborn man who would still take a shot on either guy with my literal last pick in the draft.
Taylor Bryant and Eric Hutting don’t quite fit that same former big offensive prospect archetype, but both guys were seen at one point as being good enough defensively to get a shot at pro ball. Bryant, a standout at second who can also play short and third, simply hasn’t hit enough yet to give any indication he’s ready for the next level. Hutting’s offensive production at the plate has been very underwhelming since his solid freshman year debut in 2013. Of course, after running this list by a west coast friend, the ranking of Bryant was deemed “criminally low,” so take my bat-first bias with the requisite block of salt. I’ll admit that the admonishment briefly gave me reason to reconsider the ranking before ultimately deciding to hold on Bryant until he shows something – anything at all – offensively. I see a senior-sign in 2017 when I look at his all-around profile.
Chad Hockin has gotten a lot of deserved electronic ink as one of the finest 2016 MLB Draft bullpen arms, but he’s far from the only potential impact reliever set to come out of the Big West this June. There’s more to life than just fastball velocity, but Justin Caolomeni and Dylan Prohoroff have both matched or exceeded Hockin’s peak in the past. Calomeni complements his heater with an impressive sinking changeup and a low- to mid-80s slider with plus upside. His track record through two and a half college seasons is unimpeachable. I like him a lot as one of those mid-round relievers who winds up “coming out of nowhere” developmentally to pitch in the big leagues for ten years. Prohoroff’s game is a little more reliant on his fastball, a pitch that sits in the low-90s with the occasional forays to 95-96-97. His breaking ball isn’t as far along as you’d like, but the arm strength, size, and production all point toward a potential middle reliever future with continued growth.
Then there’s Hockin, the Fullerton arm who really is deserving of all the attention he’s gotten so far this spring. The sturdy righthander was seen by some I talked to back in day as having an impressive enough overall repertoire to get consideration as a starting pitching conversion project in the pros. While that talk has died down – maybe he could pull it off, but Hockin’s stuff plays way up in short bursts – the fact that it was mentioned to me in the first place speaks to his well-rounded offspeed arsenal and craftiness on the mound. Hockin leans on his mid-90s fastball (87-93 in longer outings turned into 94-96 with every pitch as a reliever) and a power 83-87 cut-slider that frequently comes in above-average. Those two pitchers alone make him a legitimate late-inning prospect, but the promise he once displayed with both a low-80s change and an upper-70s curve could give him that softer little something extra. I’ve heard he’s ditched both during games, but still toys with them in practice. It bears repeating that he’s a fine prospect pumping fastballs and sliders all day, but knowing he could mix in a third pitch in time is a nice perk.
These “pre-season” lists have taken me so long to complete that I can’t help but peak at what each guy has been up to in 2016. Since I don’t want to get bogged down in performance-based analysis and smaller sample size madness, I typically just jot down a quick word or phrase to give me an idea how the player is doing. Examples include the very creative “good,” “so-so,” and “not great.” Sometimes I’ll get wild and up a “good” to “very good.” For Kenny Rosenberg, however, the simple phrase “VIDEO GAME” felt appropriate. He’s whiffed 57 guys with only 10 walks in 41.1 innings of 1.96 ERA ball. It’s the best strikeout rate of any pitcher on the team and his ERA is third among qualifiers (first among starters). He’s not doing it with junk, either: Rosenberg lives 87-92 and has shown above-average command of three offspeed pitches. I don’t know how high his upside is, but I’m willing to keep watching him sit hitters down until we figure it out. His teammate Conner O’Neil has similar stuff highlighted by an above-average breaking ball. His track record of success is even lengthier than Rosenberg’s. Whatever the staff at Cal State Northridge is doing with these arms, they need to keep it up.
(Incidentally, the Matadors have a player named Fred Smith who I don’t know anything about yet, but is hitting .363/.385/.407 (4 BB/5 K) in 113 AB. A name like that playing middle infield with his type of crazy contact rates is oddly appealing to me. I’m mostly putting this here for me as a note to find out more about him. Carry on.)
Austin McGeorge, Austin Sodders, Brendan Hornung, Miles Chambers, Scott Serigstad, Keaton Leach, and Trevor Bettencourt are all draft-worthy arms with fastballs that creep past 90 MPH. McGeorge’s low-80s slider makes him stand out among the pack, though Sodders doing it from the left side intrigues me as well. Additionally, Bettencourt, the Tennessee transfer, has gotten a lot of positive buzz this spring.
Matthew Ellis, a converted catcher, has a big arm (up to 94) and athleticism. James Carter brings pinpoint fastball command of a pitch that also hits 94 (88-92 otherwise); he’s still on the mend from 2015 Tommy John surgery, but I could see a team that’s done a deep dive on him prior to the elbow explosion keeping interest in him through the ups and downs of recovery. Henry Omaña is a mystery man with limited information and even less of a D1 track record. What I know (90-94 FB, solid spike-curve), I like.
This post would have been lengthier, but a way too long love letter to Justin Bieber’s latest album has been deleted. After a few drinks I might share my working theory on how Bieber is the evolutionary Justin Timberlake, but we’ll table that for now. We’ll actually go a step further and declare this site a NO BIEBER joke zone henceforth. That’s the first last time I’ll connect Justin to Shane Bieber all spring. Shane is a fascinating enough prospect to talk about even without the musical interludes.
He was a pre-season FAVORITE who hasn’t yet missed a ton of bats at the college level, but I’ll continue to tout his 85-90 (92 peak) sinking fastball, above-average yet still frustratingly inconsistent 79-85 changeup, and true hybrid 78-81 breaking ball as the right type of mix of a big league starting pitcher. We’ve seen college righthanders with below-average fastball velocity, intriguing offspeed stuff, plus command, and above-average athleticism and deception go high on draft day before, and Bieber could follow suit. I’d feel a lot more comfortable if he was missing more bats, but the overall package is still enticing. It’s the Thomas Eshelman starter kit.
Hitters
- Long Beach State JR SS/2B Garrett Hampson
- UC Santa Barbara rSO C Dempsey Grover
- UC Santa Barbara rJR OF Andrew Calica
- Cal State Northridge rSR SS Yusuke Akitoshi
- Cal State Fullerton JR SS Timmy Richards
- Cal State Northridge rSR 1B/OF Branden Berry
- Hawaii JR 2B Josh Rojas
- Hawaii JR OF/2B Marcus Doi
- Hawaii SR SS Jacob Sheldon-Collins
- UC Riverside JR OF Vince Fernandez
- UC Santa Barbara rSO OF/LHP Josh Adams
- Cal State Fullerton SR OF Josh Vargas
- UC Irvine JR 2B John Brontsema
- Cal State Northridge JR C Dylan Alexander
- Cal Poly JR C/1B Brett Barbier
- Cal State Fullerton rSR OF Tyler Stieb
- Cal State Fullerton SR 1B Tanner Pinkston
- Long Beach State rSR 3B/2B Zach Domingues
- UC Irvine SR SS Mikey Duarte
- UC Riverside JR OF Mark Contreras
- UC Davis SR C Cameron Olson
- Cal State Fullerton JR 2B/SS Taylor Bryant
- Cal State Northridge rSR OF Spencer O’Neil
- Cal State Fullerton SR C/3B Jerrod Bravo
- Long Beach State SR C Eric Hutting
- UC Riverside rSR C/2B Drake Zarate
- Hawaii SR 1B Alex Sawelson
Pitchers
- Cal Poly JR RHP Justin Calomeni
- Cal State Northridge rSO LHP Kenny Rosenberg
- Cal State Fullerton JR RHP Chad Hockin
- Cal State Fullerton JR RHP Dylan Prohoroff
- Cal State Northridge JR RHP Conner O’Neil
- UC Santa Barbara JR RHP Shane Bieber
- Cal State Fullerton rJR RHP Blake Quinn
- Long Beach State JR RHP Austin McGeorge
- UC Riverside JR LHP Austin Sodders
- Hawaii JR RHP Brendan Hornung
- Cal State Fullerton rJR RHP Miles Chambers
- Cal State Fullerton JR RHP Scott Serigstad
- UC Riverside SR RHP Keaton Leach
- Cal Poly JR RHP Slater Lee
- UC Santa Barbara rJR RHP Trevor Bettencourt
- Cal State Northridge SR RHP Angel Rodriguez
- Cal State Northridge SR RHP Rayne Raven
- UC Riverside SR RHP/C Matthew Ellis
- UC Santa Barbara rJR RHP James Carter
- Cal State Fullerton rJR RHP Henry Omaña
- Cal State Fullerton JR LHP Maxwell Gibbs
- Cal State Northridge rSR RHP Matthew Troupe
- Long Beach State rSR RHP Ty Provencher
- Hawaii SR RHP Josh Pigg
- Long Beach State rJR RHP Josh Advocate
- UC Santa Barbara rJR RHP Kenny Chapman
- UC Davis JR RHP Zach Stone
- Long Beach State JR LHP Kyle Brown
- UC Irvine SR LHP Elliot Surrey
- UC Riverside JR RHP Angel Landazuri
- Cal State Fullerton rJR RHP Shane Stillwagon
- Long Beach State SR RHP Tanner Brown
- UC Davis rSO LHP Orlando Razo
Cal Poly
JR RHP Justin Calomeni (2016)
JR RHP Slater Lee (2016)
SR 2B/OF John Schuknecht (2016)
JR C/1B Brett Barbier (2016)
SO RHP Erich Uelmen (2017)
SO LHP Kyle Smith (2017)
SO RHP Michael Gomez (2017)
SO RHP Jarred Zill (2017)
SO RHP Andrew Bernstein (2017)
FR RHP Bobby Ay (2018)
FR RHP Cameron Schneider (2018)
FR OF Alex McKenna (2018)
FR 1B Cooper Moore (2018)
FR 2B Kyle Marinconz (2018)
FR SS Dylan Doherty (2018)
FR C Nick Meyer (2018)
High Priority Follows: Justin Calomeni, Slater Lee, Brett Barbier
Cal State Fullerton
JR RHP Chad Hockin (2016)
rJR RHP Miles Chambers (2016)
rJR RHP Blake Quinn (2016)
rJR RHP Shane Stillwagon (2016)
rJR RHP Henry Omaña (2016)
JR RHP Dylan Prohoroff (2016)
JR LHP Maxwell Gibbs (2016)
JR RHP Scott Serigstad (2016)
SR OF Josh Vargas (2016)
rSR OF Tyler Stieb (2016)
JR SS Timmy Richards (2016)
SR C/3B Jerrod Bravo (2016)
JR 2B/SS Taylor Bryant (2016)
SR 1B Tanner Pinkston (2016)
SR OF Dalton Blaser (2016)
rSO C/1B Niko Pacheco (2016)
JR OF Hunter Cullen (2016)
SO LHP John Gavin (2017)
SO RHP Connor Seabold (2017)
SO OF/2B Scott Hurst (2017)
SO C Chris Hudgins (2017)
SO SS Tristan Hildebrandt (2017)
FR RHP Colton Eastman (2018)
FR RHP Brett Conine (2018)
FR OF Ruben Cardenas (2018)
FR INF Hank LoForte (2018)
FR SS Coby Kauhaahaa (2018)
High Priority Follows: Chad Hockin, Miles Chambers, Blake Quinn, Shane Stillwagon, Henry Omaña, Dylan Prohoroff, Maxwell Gibbs, Scott Serigstad, Josh Vargas, Tyler Stieb, Timmy Richards, Jerrod Bravo, Taylor Bryant, Tanner Pinkston
Cal State Northridge
SR RHP Angel Rodriguez (2016)
SR RHP Rayne Raven (2016)
JR RHP Conner O’Neil (2016)
rSR RHP Matthew Troupe (2016)
rSO LHP Kenny Rosenberg (2016)
SR RHP Nick Viola (2016)
rSR OF Spencer O’Neil (2016)
rSR SS Yusuke Akitoshi (2016)
rJR OF Bobby Schuman (2016)
SR 1B/3B William Colantono (2016)
rSR 1B/OF Branden Berry (2016)
JR C Dylan Alexander (2016)
SO RHP Joe Ryan (2017)
SO RHP Andrew Weston (2017)
SO LHP Joey Deceglie (2017)
SO OF/LHP Justin Toerner (2017)
SO C/1B Albee Weiss (2017)
rFR OF Michael Russo (2017)
High Priority Follows: Angel Rodriguez, Rayne Raven, Conner O’Neil, Matthew Troupe, Kenny Rosenberg, Spencer O’Neil, Yusuke Akitoshi, Branden Berry, Dylan Alexander
Hawaii
SR RHP Josh Pigg (2016)
JR RHP Brendan Hornung (2016)
SR RHP Kyle Von Ruden (2016)
SR RHP Cody Culp (2016)
SR LHP Matt Valencia (2016)
JR 2B Josh Rojas (2016)
JR OF/2B Marcus Doi (2016)
JR OF Alex Fitchett (2016)
SR 1B Alex Sawelson (2016)
SR SS Jacob Sheldon-Collins (2016)
rSO C Chayce Ka’aua (2016)
rSR OF Alan Baldwin (2016)
SO 1B Eric Ramirez (2017)
FR C Kekai Rios (2018)
High Priority Follows: Josh Pigg, Brendon Hornung, Matt Valencia, Josh Rojas, Marcus Doi, Alex Fitchett, Alex Sawelson, Jacob Sheldon-Collins, Chayce Ka’aua
Long Beach State
rSR RHP Ty Provencher (2016)
SR RHP Tanner Brown (2016)
JR RHP Dave Smith (2016)
SR RHP Ryan Cruz (2016)
JR LHP Kyle Brown (2016)
JR RHP Austin McGeorge (2016)
rJR RHP Josh Advocate (2016)
JR SS/2B Garrett Hampson (2016)
SR C Eric Hutting (2016)
rSR 3B/2B Zach Domingues (2016)
SR 3B/OF Zack Rivera (2016)
rSO OF Tristan Mercadel (2016)
JR C Daniel Jackson (2016)
SO RHP Chris Mathewson (2017)
SO RHP Darren McCaughan (2017)
SO RHP Tyler Radcliffe (2017)
SO 1B/OF Brock Lundquist (2017)
SO OF Joey Sanchez (2017)
SO 1B/OF Luke Rasmussen (2017)
FR 2B/SS Jarren Duran (2018)
FR OF Brooks Stotler (2018)
FR 3B/OF Domenic Colacchio (2018)
FR INF Chris Fife (2018)
High Priority Follows: Ty Provencher, Tanner Brown, Ryan Cruz, Kyle Brown, Austin McGeorge, Josh Advocate, Garrett Hampson, Eric Hutting, Zach Domingues, Daniel Jackson
UC Davis
SR RHP Nat Hamby (2016)
JR RHP Zach Stone (2016)
rSO LHP Orlando Razo (2016)
JR RHP Justin Mullins (2016)
rSO RHP Blake Peters (2016)
SR 1B/LHP Spencer Henderson (2016)
SR OF Tanner Bily (2016)
SR C Cameron Olson (2016)
rJR 1B Mason Novak (2016)
rFR LHP Robert Garcia (2017)
rFR 3B/OF Ryan Anderson (2017)
High Priority Follows: Nat Hemby, Zach Stone, Orlando Razo, Spencer Henderson, Tanner Bily, Cameron Olson
UC Irvine
SR LHP Elliot Surrey (2016)
JR RHP Sean Sparling (2016)
rSR 2B/OF Grant Palmer (2016)
SR 3B Mitchell Holland (2016)
rSR 1B Jonathan Munoz (2016)
rJR OF Evan Cassolato (2016)
SR SS Mikey Duarte (2016)
rJR 1B Andrew Martinez (2016)
JR OF Adam Alcantra (2016)
JR 2B John Brontsema (2016)
SO LHP/1B Cameron Bishop (2017)
SO RHP Shaun Vetrovec (2017)
SO RHP Alonzo Garcia (2017)
SO OF/2B Keston Hiura (2017)
FR LHP Miles Glazier (2018)
FR C Matt Reitano (2018)
High Priority Follows: Elliot Surrey, Mitchell Holland, Mikey Duarte, Andrew Martinez, John Brontsema
UC Riverside
JR LHP Austin Sodders (2016)
SR RHP Keaton Leach (2016)
JR RHP Angel Landazuri (2016)
rSO RHP Max Compton (2016)
SR RHP/C Matthew Ellis (2016)
rSR C/2B Drake Zarate (2016)
JR 1B Aaron Cisneros (2016)
rJR 3B Michael Farris (2016)
JR OF Vince Fernandez (2016)
JR OF Mark Contreras (2016)
SO RHP/C Ryan Lillie (2017)
SO OF Austin Colvin (2017)
High Priority Follows: Austin Sodders, Keaton Leach, Angel Landazuri, Max Compton, Matthew Ellis, Drake Zarate, Vince Fernandez, Mark Contreras
UC Santa Barbara
JR RHP Shane Bieber (2016)
rJR RHP James Carter (2016)
rJR RHP Trevor Bettencourt (2016)
rJR RHP Kenny Chapman (2016)
rJR OF Andrew Calica (2016)
rJR OF/SS Devon Gradford (2016)
rSO C Dempsey Grover (2016)
JR 2B/3B Billy Fredrick (2016)
rSO 2B JJ Muno (2016)
rSO OF/LHP Josh Adams (2016)
SO RHP Alex Garcia (2017)
SO LHP Kyle Nelson (2017)
SO RHP Chris Clements (2017)
rFR RHP Joe Record (2017)
SO SS Clay Fisher (2017)
SO 1B Kyle Plantier (2017)
SO 1B Austin Bush (2017)
FR RHP Noah Davis (2018)
FR RHP Willie Traynor (2018)
FR OF Michael McAdoo (2018)
FR 2B/SS Tevin Mitchell (2018)
High Priority Follows: Shane Bieber, James Carter, Trevor Bettencourt, Kenny Chapman, Andrew Calica, Dempsey Grover, Billy Fredrick, Josh Adams
2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – Mountain West
Jacob DeVries felt like a lock to lead the Mountain West pitching group in 2016 throughout the offseason, but recent feedback I’ve gotten seems to point to Griffin Jax being the preferred option of the majority who have seen them both up close. It’s still really, really close, but the reaction to Jax was generally more complimentary than what I heard back on DeVries. For many the choice came down to opting for a little more certainty in Jax (better control, changeup further along) than gambling on the upside of DeVries. I’d personally be tempted by DeVries’s easy velocity (87-94, 96 peak) from the left side and above-average curve, but I’ll go with the people on this one until I re-rank in June. Until then, I’ll just say that DeVries scouting profile reads similarly to Jeff Degano last year. Something to think about.
I’ve followed Jax with a little more interest than I might have otherwise due to the fact that he was originally drafted by my hometown team. The Phillies selected a pair of high school pitchers that they were prepared to go overslot with in 2013: the recently released Denton Keys and Jax. It’s easy to say with the benefit of hindsight that Philadelphia made the wrong call in going with Key, but that assumes that they were ever in a position to truly make said decision; after all, it takes two to sign a contract and talking a young man out of a commitment to Air Force can’t be easy. He’s strong, he throws hard (86-94, 96 peak), and he command both his curve and change for quality strikes. It’s a relatively safe mid- to late-rotation starter package with the added upside going forward of a) not having to worry about playing both ways at all (admittedly less of an issue this year, but last year he played some first on non-pitching days), b) shifting towards a pro future that makes baseball your number one priority professionally (for better or worse), and c) being viewed as a still ascending player figuring out just how good he can be on the mound full-time.
Fresno State has a nice collection of pitching that looks better to me the more I consider it. Anthony Arias is a deceptive lefty with a good sinking fastball (88-92) and an upper-70s curve with above-average upside. Jimmy Lambert has upped his game in 2016 with reports of his fastball hitting 94. Tim Borst is off to an excellent bat-missing start with enough of a fastball of his own (88-93) to get draft consideration as a late-round reliever. Dylan Lee throws about as hard from the left side. All in all, it’s a better group than I first gave credit.
Brayden Torres has been a favorite of mine for some time because 6-5, 190 pound lefties that sit in the low-90s with promising offspeed stuff are relevant to my interests. He hasn’t pitched in 2016, so it’s difficult to find the right spot for him on a ranking like this. Michael Fain and Mark Nowaczewski, both out of Nevada, have similarly sparse or ineffective 2016 innings next to their ledgers. Both are big guys already capable of touching the mid-90s with projection left. Both guys also don’t have the type of track record over the years that matches their raw stuff. I’m glad I don’t have to make any real decisions when it comes down to the pitchers in the Mountain West in 2016.
Trenton Brooks has gotten off to a relatively slow start at the plate so far, but I remain firmly on his bandwagon heading into June. His athleticism, defensive upside (CF range and a strong arm befitting a two-way player), and flashes of offensive promise make him a really intriguing future pro, especially if you believe (as I do) that focusing solely on one side of the ball will help take his game to the next level professionally. Between that belief and the possibility he could always be shifted back to the mound down the line if need be – two points that are almost but not quite contradictory – Brooks has a chance to be a better pro than what he’s shown at Nevada.
I’m not yet sure what to make of Chris DeVito as an all-around prospect, but the confidence that he’ll hit as a pro grows by the week. The improvements he has made as a hitter, especially as he’s found a way to retain his big power while significantly decreasing the length of his swing, are real. One friend of mine affectionately refers to him as the “western Zack Collins.” My prospect love for Collins runs far too deep for me to go there, but I still like it. If DeVito can convince pro teams he can catch professionally, there’s no telling how high he can rise. I’m unsure if that’ll be the case – literally unsure: haven’t heard much in either direction about his glove, so I legitimately do not have an updated opinion on the matter – but I look forward to finding out more about his defense in the coming weeks. He’s a potentially great (top five round?) prospect – though I’d caution taking his offensive production with his offensive environments in mind — if he catch, and a good one (round six to ten?) if he’s forced to first base.
DeVito doesn’t stand alone as the only Lobo with big early season numbers. Danny Collier and Jack Zoellner are right there with him. I guess that makes sense that they would travel in packs. In fact, a whole lot of New Mexico hitters are doing big things so far. That’s what I mean when I mention context being important when looking at production. New Mexico hitters are currently hitting a combined .314/.416/.481. That’s not just because they have a strong lineup – though they do – but also because of where they’ve been playing. Case in point, their opponents are hitting .309/.374/.435 against them. It’s still noteworthy what these guys are doing – DeVito’s been on base in every game this season, for example – but understanding the context is key. It’s also important to realize that the players listed high on this list are there for reasons beyond a few good weeks at the plate. DeVito’s aforementioned adjustments at the plate allow his plus raw power to play anywhere. Collier is a good runner and steady defender who gets the most out of his physical abilities. Zoellner has plenty of power of his own, plus the most impressive extended track record of the trio. A big bucket of cold water for fans of DeVito, Collier, and Zoellner comes with the realization all three have struggled in more neutral summer league assignments over the years. Area scouts will really earn their (meager) pay this spring as they attempt to tease out what foundational elements of each prospect’s game will translate to pro ball…and what’s more of a thin air/small park mirage.
Hitters
- Nevada JR OF/LHP Trenton Brooks
- New Mexico JR 1B/C Chris DeVito
- New Mexico JR OF Danny Collier
- New Mexico JR 1B Jack Zoellner
- Air Force JR OF/1B Tyler Jones
- Air Force JR OF Adam Groesbeck
- New Mexico SR SS Jared Holley
- Nevada JR 2B Miles Mastrobuoni
- Fresno State SR OF/SS Brody Russell
- Air Force SR OF/2B Spencer Draws
- Fresno State JR OF Austin Guibor
- San Jose State SR 2B Ozzy Braff
- New Mexico SR SS/2B Dalton Bowers
- Fresno State JR SS Scott Silva
- New Mexico rSR 2B Michael Eaton
- Air Force JR 1B Bradley Haslam
- Nevada SR 1B/OF Bryce Greager
- San Diego State rSR OF Spencer Thornton
- Fresno State rSO C Nick Warren
- Fresno State SR 3B/OF Kevin Viers
- New Mexico rSO OF Reece Weber
- San Diego State rJR C/RHP CJ Saylor
- New Mexico JR OF/3B Andre Vigil
Pitchers
- Air Force JR RHP Griffin Jax
- Air Force JR LHP Jacob DeVries
- Fresno State rSO LHP Anthony Arias
- Fresno State JR RHP Jimmy Lambert
- Fresno State SR RHP Tim Borst
- Air Force JR RHP Austin McDaniel
- Fresno State SR LHP Dylan Lee
- Nevada JR RHP Trevor Charpie
- UNLV SR LHP Brayden Torres
- Nevada SR RHP Michael Fain
- Nevada JR RHP Mark Nowaczewski
- New Mexico rSR LHP Alex Estrella
- Nevada JR RHP Evan McMahan
- New Mexico SR RHP Drew Bridges
- Nevada SR RHP Sam Held
- UNLV SR RHP Kenny Oakley
- Nevada SR LHP Christian Stolo
- New Mexico SR RHP Taylor Duree
- New Mexico rSR RHP Victor Sanchez
- UNLV JR RHP DJ Myers
- Air Force SR LHP Trent Monaghan
- San Diego State rSO RHP Orlando Meza
- San Diego State rSR RHP Dalton Douty
- Fresno State rSO LHP Fred Schlichtholz
- San Diego State JR LHP Marcus Reyes
- San Jose State JR RHP Logan Handzlik
- San Diego State JR RHP Mike Diamond
- New Mexico JR LHP Fernando Fernandez
Air Force
JR LHP Jacob DeVries (2016)
JR RHP Austin McDaniel (2016)
SR LHP Trent Monaghan (2016)
JR RHP Nathan Stanford (2016)
JR RHP Griffin Jax (2016)
SR OF/2B Spencer Draws (2016)
JR OF/1B Tyler Jones (2016)
JR SS Shaun Mize (2016)
JR 1B Bradley Haslam (2016)
JR OF Adam Groesbeck (2016)
SO RHP Nick Biancalana (2017)
SO SS Tyler Zabojnik (2017)
FR RHP Karter Cook (2018)
FR RHP/1B Tyler Mortenson (2018)
FR 3B Nick Ready (2018)
FR OF Drew Wiss (2018)
FR OF Daniel Jones (2018)
High Priority Follows: Jacob DeVries, Austin McDaniel, Trent Monaghan, Nathan Stanford, Griffin Jax, Spencer Draws, Tyler Jones, Bradley Haslam, Adam Groesbeck
Fresno State
SR RHP Tim Borst (2016)
rSO LHP Fred Schlichtholz (2016)
JR RHP Jimmy Lambert (2016)
SR LHP Dylan Lee (2016)
SR RHP Dominic Topoozian (2016)
JR RHP Mark Reece (2016)
rSO LHP Anthony Arias (2016)
JR SS Scott Silva (2016)
SR OF/SS Brody Russell (2016):
SR 3B/OF Kevin Viers (2016)
rSO C Nick Warren (2016)
JR SS Jesse Medrano (2016)
JR OF Austin Guibor (2016)
JR OF Jake Stone (2016)
SO LHP Ricky Tyler Thomas (2017)
SO RHP Rickey Ramirez (2017)
SO 3B McCarthy Tatum (2017)
SO OF Aaron Arruda (2017)
SO 2B Korby Batesole (2017)
FR LHP Alec Gamboa (2018)
FR SS Jeremiah Burks (2018)
FR C Jake Ackerman (2018)
FR OF Zach Ashford (2018)
FR 3B RJ Cordeiro (2018)
High Priority Follows: Tim Borst, Fred Schlichholtz, Jimmy Lambert, Dylan Lee, Anthony Arias, Scott Silva, Brody Russell, Kevin Viers, Nick Warren, Austin Guibor
Nevada
SR RHP Michael Fain (2016)
SR RHP Sam Held (2016)
SR LHP Christian Stolo (2016)
SR RHP Zach Wilkins (2016)
SR LHP Cameron Rowland (2016)
JR RHP Mark Nowaczewski (2016)
JR RHP Evan McMahan (2016)
JR RHP Trevor Charpie (2016)
JR OF/LHP Trenton Brooks (2016)
SR 1B/OF Bryce Greager (2016)
SR 2B Justin Bridgman (2016)
JR 2B Miles Mastrobuoni (2016)
SO RHP/1B Jordan Pearce (2017)
SO SS Grant Fennell (2017)
SO OF TJ Friedl (2017)
FR 1B/RHP Cooper Krug (2018)
High Priority Follows: Michael Fain, Sam Held, Christian Stolo, Zach Wilkins, Cameron Rowland, Mark Nowaczewski, Evan McMahan, Trevor Charpie, Trenton Brooks, Bryce Greager, Miles Mastrobuoni
New Mexico
rSR RHP Victor Sanchez (2016)
JR LHP Fernando Fernandez (2016)
rSR LHP Alex Estrella (2016)
SR RHP Taylor Duree (2016)
JR LHP Carson Schneider (2016)
JR RHP Preston Ryan (2016)
rSR LHP Colton Thomson (2016)
SR RHP Drew Bridges (2016)
SR SS/2B Dalton Bowers (2016)
SR SS Jared Holley (2016)
JR OF/3B Andre Vigil (2016)
rSR 2B Michael Eaton (2016)
JR 1B Jack Zoellner (2016)
JR OF Danny Collier (2016)
JR 1B/C Chris DeVito (2016)
rSO OF Reece Weber (2016)
SO RHP James Harrington (2017)
SO RHP Tyler Stevens (2017)
SO OF/LHP Luis Gonzalez (2017)
SO C/3B Carl Stajduhar (2017)
SO 2B/RHP Hayden Schilling (2017)
FR RHP Christian Tripp (2018)
FR RHP/OF Erick Migueles (2018)
FR RHP/OF Austin Treadwell (2018)
FR OF Jacob Westerman (2018)
FR C Jared Mang (2018)
FR OF Austin Bell (2018)
High Priority Follows: Victor Sanchez, Fernando Fernandez, Alex Estrella, Taylor Duree, Colton Thomson, Drew Bridges, Dalton Bowers, Jared Holley, Andre Vigil, Michael Eaton, Jack Zoellner, Danny Collier, Chris DeVito, Reece Weber
San Diego State
JR RHP Mike Diamond (2016)
rSR RHP Dalton Douty (2016)
rSR RHP Brian Heldman (2016)
SR RHP Zack Oakley (2016)
rSO RHP Orlando Meza (2016)
JR LHP Marcus Reyes (2016)
JR RHP Brett Seeburger (2016)
rJR RHP Cody Thompson (2016)
rJR C/RHP CJ Saylor (2016)
rSR OF Spencer Thornton (2016)
rSO OF Tyler Adkison (2016)
JR 2B/SS Andrew Brown (2016)
rFR RHP Harrison Pyatt (2017)
SO RHP Tyler Loptien (2017)
SO SS/RHP Alan Trejo (2017)
SO 3B/RHP David Hensley (2017)
SO OF/2B Denz’l Chapman (2017)
SO OF Chase Calabuig (2017)
SO 2B Justin Wylie (2017)
FR RHP Chris Collins (2018)
FR RHP Jeff Kross (2018)
FR RHP Dustin Jack (2018)
FR 3B Jordan Verdon (2018)
FR INF Niko Navarro (2018)
FR C Dean Nevarez (2018)
High Priority Follows: Mike Diamond, Dalton Douty, Brian Heldman, Zack Oakley, Orlando Meza, Marcus Reyes, Brett Seeburger, Cody Thompson, CJ Saylor, Spencer Thornton, Tyler Adkison
San Jose State
JR RHP Logan Handzlik (2016)
JR RHP Joseph Balfour (2016)
JR LHP Graham Gomez (2016)
SR 2B Ozzy Braff (2016)
JR OF Brett Bautista (2016)
JR C Joe Stefanki (2016)
SR OF Dillan Smith (2016)
SO RHP/INF Josh Nashed (2017)
SO RHP Hilario Tovar (2017)
SO RHP Matt Brown (2017)
rFR RHP Daniel Harris (2017)
SO RHP Josh Goldberg (2017)
SO 3B David Campbell (2017)
SO 1B/OF Shane Timmons (2017)
FR C/1B Brendt Citta (2018)
High Priority Follows: Logan Handzlik, Ozzy Braff, Brett Bautista, Joe Stefanki
UNLV
SR RHP Kenny Oakley (2016)
SR LHP Brayden Torres (2016)
JR RHP DJ Myers (2016)
SR RHP Ben Wright (2016)
SR RHP Cody Roper (2016)
SO RHP Dean Kremer (2016)
JR OF Keyon Allen (2016)
rJR 2B/OF Justin Jones (2016)
SR C Andrew Yazdanbakhsh (2016)
SO RHP Blaze Bohall (2017)
SO OF/2B Payton Squier (2017)
SO SS Nick Rodriguez (2017)
SO 3B Austin Anderson (2017)
SO C Bryan Menendez (2017)
FR LHP Tevita Gerber (2018)
FR RHP Ryan Hare (2018)
FR 1B/3B Nick Ames (2018)
FR 3B Kyle Isbel (2018)
High Priority Follows: Kenny Oakley, Brayden Torres, DJ Myers, Cody Roper, Keyon Allen, Justin Jones, Andrew Yazdanbakhsh
2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – Missouri Valley
I had Darick Hall listed with the pitchers based on a tip from a pal who swears he’ll wind up on the mound in the pros, but this piece getting delayed a couple of days saved me from that potential gaffe. I’m not saying he’s wrong with that prediction, but after the last few days Hall’s had at the plate I’m not sure how we could make that projected switch just yet. The first baseman/righthanded pitcher’s excellence on the mound is still worth noting, of course, so we’ll do it right here: 33 K/5 BB in 35.1 IP (6 starts) of 2.55 ERA ball. That’s damn good. On the other hand, eleven homers in just ninety at bats is pretty special, too. Most of the scouting notes I have on him focus on his future as a position player – impressive hit tool for a power guy, solid glove at first, reasonably athletic for his size – so I’m pleased to have him listed as a primary first baseman for now. As a pitcher, all I have are his numbers. Either way, he’s a player I really want to learn more about the next few months.
Hall is just one of the many Dallas Baptist hitters that deserve attention in this draft class. That’s a lineup that rivals any in the Big 12. Daniel Sweet came into the season as the top Dallas Baptist hitting prospect for me and I don’t want to be reactionary by moving him off because of the hot starts of those around him, but some of his teammates have made things mighty crowded at the top. Sweet’s blend of power, speed, and athleticism have made him a favorite for years. I still believe in his bat enough to think he can make it as a future regular in center and potential big league leadoff hitter. In the event that doesn’t work out, his overall skill set lends itself to quality backup. I’ve compared him to a more powerful Andrew Toles in the past; Toles’s pro career hasn’t quite been all it was expected to be so far, so take that comparison with the requisite block of salt.
David Martinelli is another quality Dallas Baptist outfielder who has shown all five tools and plenty of athleticism. His power has always been the main draw, but his improved approach makes him even more appealing. I’m in on Martinelli. Arguably the most interesting player on the Patriots roster – a fascinating roster that includes the two-way sensation Hall and red hot Washington State transfer Luke Stratman — is Austin Listi. I can’t find anything online at the present moment to corroborate what I have in my notes, but I recall Listi leaving the team after the 2014 season with the stated intent to enroll in the military. Whatever happened there happened, but it was a pleasant surprise to this baseball fan to see him back on the Dallas Baptist squad this past fall and off to a solid start for the Patriots this spring. Losing a year of baseball growth at such a pivotal stage in his development is less than ideal, but his power and raw physical strength give him something to offer to interested pro teams. I think all of those guys (plus Camden Duzenack, a steady glove at short with sneaky pop and solid plate discipline) get drafted with Justin Wall and Trooper Reynolds potential late-round senior-signs if their bats get going again. If you’re not counting along at home, that’s six potential draftees with two maybe’s joining the field from one college lineup. Maybe I’m nuts or maybe that call will prove prophetic, but we won’t know either way for a few months so might as well enjoy the ride in the meantime.
I don’t have much on either Trey Hair or the aforementioned Stratman, but their early season successes make them hard to ignore, especially considering their listed positions on the diamond. Ryan Tinkham and Spencer Johnson are both easy power bats to like: both guys have size, production, and some positional flexibility on their side. I have no idea what to make of Tyler Leffler, a shortstop who looked poised for a breakout draft season last year only to see his batting average drop almost in half from his sophomore season. A year ago I would have considered him a promising bat-first prospect with serious questions about his long-term defensive future. Now his glove seems to have passed his bat – and not just because of his 2015 struggles – and his offensive game is what will determine if he can be a mid- to late-round sleeper future regular or more of a utility prospect at best. I give him a lot of credit for the defensive improvements and I’m anxious to see if a big senior season can get him back on the draft radar for most teams.
We’re almost a thousand words into this, so it’s as good a time as any to get to the man ranked number one. I waited a bit to get to him because a) Dallas Baptist being so loaded offensively felt like the easier hook, and b) I’m not really sure what to say about a guy so consistently solid across the board as Spencer Gaa. The Bradley third baseman has been a reliable contributor since the moment he stepped on campus. He showed off his above-average to plus speed as a freshman (15 SB) and his emerging raw power (.500 SLG) as a sophomore. If he can put it all together this year, then he’s a potential top five round prospect. Gaa checks every box.
I always make a point to say that these are conceived as pre-season rankings that attempt to reflect the larger body of work rather than recent performances. There are, however, exceptions to that rule. Sam Tewes is a walking, talking exception as he was dropped a whopping one whole spot after news broke that he’ll be undergoing Tommy John surgery on Wednesday (March 31, 2016). His immediate draft future is obviously in doubt as he’ll have to weigh the pros and cons of rehabbing as a professional versus doing so as a redshirt-junior next season at Wichita State. I wouldn’t consider him signable as of now – guys with multiple years of eligible left are challenges from the start and the injury clouds up his future even more – but I’d sure as heck be on him this spring trying to figure out if there’s a reasonable number he’d agree to. His ability is undeniable. Tewes feels like the kind of guy the Red Sox pick late and convince to sign an overslot deal on while fans of all other teams slap their heads thinking “Why couldn’t we have thought of that?”
It says something both about Tewes and the rest of the Missouri Valley 2016 collection of pitching that I’d still take him second out of the group even with the bum elbow. Tommy John surgery should really drop you more than one spot, right? Maybe I’m overrating Tewes, underrating the rest of the Missouri Valley pitching crop, or making too many assumptions about the simplicity of Tommy John surgery; I’d accept any arguments against his placement, but will hold firm on his ranking just off the top spot for now. In his stead, Matt Dennis takes over as the MVC BMOC. Truthfully, I would have strongly considered Dennis as the top arm in this class even with a healthy Tewes. Tewes is quite good, but Dennis is plenty deserving in his own right. He’s got enough fastball (88-92, 94 peak), a damn fine changeup (plus upside), and a solid low-70s curve. His command is good, he’s kept runs off the board (1.50 ERA last year), and his peripherals have always been where you want them. It’s not the kind of profile that blows you away at first look, but all of the individual components work well together. I’m a fan.
Things get a lot more muddled after the top two, so we’ll try to hit on as many as we can in the lightning round. Eric Scheuermann is a bit of a wild card pick as I don’t know a ton about him, but what I do know (big fastball and good numbers when healthy) are obvious positives. Sam Perez could work as a sinker/slider reliever, but I’m more intrigued at the thought of him as a potential four-pitch starting pitcher capable of piling up outs on the ground. Chase Williams has a big arm (90-95 FB) with a good breaking ball and intriguing size. If he can show some measure of control, he could rise this spring.
I’ve long liked Colin Poche, a Tommy John survivor himself, and his well-rounded arsenal of offspeed pitches seems to have helped assist him in making an effective recovery from injury so far. If he gets rolling as the year moves on (and as he gets further removed from his own surgery), he could shoot up boards around the league. Brent Jurceka has one of the class’s nastiest splitters and an enviable frame. Bryan Young may have enough of the classic deceptive sinker/slider reliever profile to make some headway in the pro game. Willie Schwanke has been a prospect for years thanks to his arm strength (up to 94) and athleticism. The Indiana State duo of Austin Conway and Greg Kuhlman intrigue me, but neither has the 2016 innings yet to make a move up the rankings. The group of Southern Illinois pitchers found near the bottom of the list includes pitchers with reasonably interesting scouting profiles, but, when looked at individually, either a lack of innings or ineffective performances for each young arm gives me pause.
A friend who helped with some of the information here wanted me to point out that Eric McKibban and Brett Synek, both of Evansville, are off to fine starts that have put both firmly in the mix for him as draftable seniors. Happy to oblige.
Hitters
- Bradley JR 3B Spencer Gaa
- Dallas Baptist SR OF Daniel Sweet
- Dallas Baptist JR OF/RHP David Martinelli
- Dallas Baptist JR 3B/OF Austin Listi
- Evansville JR 2B Trey Hair
- Dallas Baptist JR 2B/SS Luke Stratman
- Dallas Baptist JR1B/RHP Darick Hall
- Dallas Baptist JR SS/2B Camden Duzenack
- Wichita State SR 1B/C Ryan Tinkham
- Missouri State SR OF/1B Spencer Johnson
- Bradley SR SS Tyler Leffler
- Missouri State JR 1B Justin Paulsen
- Dallas Baptist rSR OF Justin Wall
- Evansville SR OF Josh Jyawook
- Illinois State rSR 2B Joe Kelch
- Evansville SR SS Shain Showers
- Dallas Baptist SR 1B/3B Trooper Reynolds
- Missouri State JR 2B/OF Aaron Meyer
- Indiana State SR 3B/OF Andy Young
- Wichita State SR 3B Chase Rader
- Evansville SR 3B Jonathan Ramon
- Illinois State SR OF Daniel Dwyer
- Indiana State rSR OF Andrew Gutierrez
- Wichita State rJR C Josh Whisler
- Missouri State JR OF Blake Graham
- Missouri State SR OF Matt Dezort
Pitchers
- Bradley JR RHP Matt Dennis
- Wichita State rSO RHP Sam Tewes
- Bradley rJR RHP Eric Scheuermann
- Missouri State SR RHP Sam Perez
- Wichita State rSR RHP Chase Williams
- Dallas Baptist rJR LHP Colin Poche
- Evansville SR RHP Brent Jurceka
- Missouri State rJR RHP Bryan Young
- Wichita State rJR RHP/3B Willie Schwanke
- Evansville JR RHP Patrick Schneiders
- Bradley rJR RHP Nate Stong
- Illinois State SR LHP Jacob Hendren
- Indiana State JR RHP Austin Conway
- Indiana State rSR LHP Greg Kuhlman
- Wichita State rSR RHP John Hayes
- Dallas Baptist JR RHP Trevor Conn
- Indiana State JR LHP Ryan Keaffaber
- Evansville SR RHP Connor Strain
- Missouri State JR LHP Jordan Knutson
- Missouri State SR LHP Andy Cheray
- Wichita State JR RHP Tyler Gibson
- Southern Illinois rJR RHP Connor McFadden
- Southern Illinois SR RHP Colten Selvey
- Southern Illinois JR RHP Austin McPheron
- Southern Illinois SR RHP Alex Lesiak
- Southern Illinois JR LHP Joey Marciano
- Wichita State SR RHP/OF Jon Ferendelli
- Wichita State JR LHP Reagan Biechler
Bradley
JR RHP Matt Dennis (2016)
SR LHP Brent Stong (2016)
rSR LHP Cameron Roegner (2016)
rJR RHP Nate Stong (2016)
rJR RHP Alex Doty (2016)
rJR RHP Peter Resnick (2016)
rJR RHP Eric Scheuermann (2016)
JR 3B Spencer Gaa (2016)
SR SS Tyler Leffler (2016)
SR OF Brady Wilkin (2016)
rSR 3B Paul Solka (2016)
JR OF Evan Gruener (2016)
JR C Zach Fairchild (2016)
SO RHP Allan Beer (2017)
SO C Ian Kristan (2017)
FR LHP Ben Olson (2018)
FR OF Jean-François Garon (2018)
FR OF Andrew Shadid (2018)
High Priority Follows: Matt Dennis, Brent Stong, Nate Stong, Eric Scheuermann, Spencer Gaa, Tyler Leffler, Paul Solka, Evan Gruener
Dallas Baptist
rJR LHP Colin Poche (2016)
rSR LHP Sean Stutzman (2016)
JR RHP Trevor Conn (2016)
JR OF/RHP David Martinelli (2016)
SR OF Daniel Sweet (2016)
SR 1B/3B Trooper Reynolds (2016)
rSR OF Justin Wall (2016)
JR SS/2B Camden Duzenack (2016)
JR 2B/SS Luke Stratman (2016)
JR 1B/RHP Darick Hall (2016)
JR 3B/OF Austin Listi (2016)
SO RHP Seth Elledge (2017)
SO RHP Dalton Higgins (2017)
SO LHP Landon Wilson (2017)
SO RHP Gavin Fritz (2017)
SO C Matt Duce (2017)
FR RHP Brett Gilchrist (2018)
FR RHP Jimmy Fouse (2018)
FR LHP Jordan Martinson (2018)
FR LHP Cody Weaver (2018)
FR RHP MD Johnson (2018)
FR OF Jameson Hannah (2018)
FR C Garrett Wolforth (2018)
High Priority Follows: Colin Poche, Trevor Conn, David Martinelli, Daniel Sweet, Trooper Reynolds, Justin Wall, Camden Duzenack, Luke Stratman, Darick Hall, Austin Listi
Evansville
SR RHP Brent Jurceka (2016)
SR RHP Alex Gould (2016)
SR RHP Connor Strain (2016)
JR RHP James Ward (2016)
JR RHP Patrick Schneiders (2016)
JR RHP Brian Jestice (2016)
SR 3B Jonathan Ramon (2016)
SR OF Josh Jyawook (2016)
SR SS Shain Showers (2016)
SR 1B/OF Eric McKibban (2016)
JR 2B Trey Hair (2016)
SR INF Brett Synek (2016)
SO RHP Ryan Brady (2017)
SO C Travis Tokarek (2017)
SO SS Stewart Nelson (2017)
SO OF Korbin Williams (2017)
FR RHP Brandon Gomer (2018)
FR OF Nate Reeder (2018)
High Priority Follows: Brent Jurceka, Connor Strain, Patrick Schneiders, Jonathan Ramon, Josh Jyawook, Shain Showers, Trey Hair
Illinois State
rJR RHP Jack Landwehr (2016)
SR LHP Jacob Hendren (2016)
SR RHP Steve Heilenbach (2016)
SR RHP Jake Sale (2016)
SR LHP/OF Jack Czeszewski (2016)
SR OF Daniel Dwyer (2016)
SR OF Sean Beesley (2016)
rSR 2B Joe Kelch (2016)
rSR 1B Brian Rodemoyer (2016)
SR OF Jared Hendren (2016)
rSR C Jean Ramirez (2016)
SO RHP Jeffrey Barton (2017)
High Priority Follows: Jacob Hendren, Jack Czeszewski, Daniel Dwyer, Joe Kelch, Brian Rodemoyer, Jared Hendren, Jean Ramirez
Indiana State
JR RHP Austin Conway (2016)
rSR LHP Greg Kuhlman (2016)
JR LHP Trent Lunsford (2016)
JR LHP Ryan Keaffaber (2016)
JR RHP Jeremy McKinney (2016)
SR RHP Ryan Cheek (2016)
rSR RHP Brad Lombard (2016)
rSR OF Andrew Gutierrez (2016)
SR 3B/OF Andy Young (2016)
SR 2B/SS Andy DeJesus (2016)
rJR 1B Hunter Owen (2016)
SR C Kaden Moore (2016)
SO RHP RHP Ethan Larrison (2017)
SO SS Tyler Friis (2017)
FR 1B/3B CJ Huntley (2018)
FR OF Chris Ayers (2018)
FR RHP/1B Evan Giles (2018)
High Priority Follows: Austin Conway, Greg Kuhlman, Ryan Keaffaber, Andrew Gutierrez, Andy Young, Hunter Owen
Missouri State
SR RHP Sam Perez (2016)
SR LHP Andy Cheray (2016)
rJR RHP Bryan Young (2016)
JR LHP Jordan Knutson (2016)
JR OF/LHP Alex Jefferson (2016)
SR OF/1B Spencer Johnson (2016)
JR 1B Justin Paulsen (2016)
JR OF Blake Graham (2016)
SR OF Matt Dezort (2016)
JR 2B/OF Aaron Meyer (2016)
SO RHP Brad Archer (2017)
rFR RHP Austin Knight (2017)
SO 3B Jake Burger (2017)
FR SS Jeremy Eierman (2018)
FR RHP Ryan Mantle (2018)
FR LHP Jake Lochner (2018)
FR OF Hunter Steinmetz (2018)
FR RHP/OF Dylan Coleman (2018)
High Priority Follows: Sam Perez, Andy Cheray, Bryan Young, Jordan Knutson, Spencer Johnson, Justin Paulsen, Blake Graham, Matt Dezort, Aaron Meyer
Southern Illinois
SR RHP Colten Selvey (2016)
SR RHP Alex Lesiak (2016)
rJR RHP Connor McFadden (2016)
rJR RHP Anthony Shimkus (2016)
rJR RHP Jacob Williams (2016)
JR RHP Austin McPheron (2016)
rSR RHP Bryce Sablotny (2016)
JR RHP Chad Whitmer (2016)
JR LHP Joey Marciano (2016)
JR 3B Will Farmer (2016)
rSO 2B Connor Kopach (2016)
rSO OF Drew Curtis (2016)
JR OF JC DeMuri (2016)
JR OF Dyllin Mucha (2016)
SO RHP Michael Baird (2017)
SO RHP Ryan Netemeyer (2017)
SO SS Chase Slone (2017)
SO 1B/3B Greg Lambert (2017)
SO 1B Logan Blackfan (2017)
FR LHP Mitch Townsend (2018)
High Priority Follows: Colten Selvey, Alex Lesiak, Connor McFadden, Anthony Shimkus, Joey Marciano, Drew Curtis, JC DeMuri
Wichita State
rSO RHP Sam Tewes (2016)
JR RHP Tyler Gibson (2016)
JR RHP Zach Lewis (2016)
rSR RHP Chase Williams (2016)
rSR RHP John Hayes (2016)
JR LHP Reagan Biechler (2016)
SR RHP/OF Jon Ferendelli (2016)
rJR RHP/3B Willie Schwanke (2016)
SR 3B Chase Rader (2016)
SR 1B/C Ryan Tinkham (2016)
rJR C Josh Whisler (2016)
rSR OF Zach Reding (2016)
SR SS Tanner Kirk (2016)
rSR OF Mikel Mucha (2016)
SO RHP Tyler Jones (2017):
SO OF/3B Keenan Eaton (2017)
SO C Taylor Sanagorski (2017)
SO C Gunnar Troutwine (2017)
rFR OF Bret Fehr (2017)
SO SS Trey Vickers (2017)
FR RHP Connor Lungwitz (2018)
FR RHP Cody Heuer (2018)
FR RHP Clayton McGinness (2018)
FR OF Dayton Dugas (2018)
FR 1B/3B Greyson Jenista (2018)
FR 1B/3B Alex Bohm (2018)
FR 2B/SS Luke Ritter (2018)
High Priority Follows: Sam Tewes, Tyler Gibson, Chase Williams, John Hayes, Reagan Biechler, Jon Ferendelli, Willie Schwanke, Chase Rader, Ryan Tinkham, Josh Whisler
2016 MLB Draft Mock Draft – March Madness 2.0
The 2016 MLB Draft will be here before we know it, so that can only mean one thing: it’s MOCK DRAFT season. It’s been a few years since I published a mock draft around here, but I figured it was finally time to get back in the game. Of course, since I can’t offer much in the way of insider intel — I’m not BA-era peak Jim Callis over here — putting together a mock would be pretty much pointless. With the proper analysis attached to each pick mock drafts can be fun and interesting reads, not to mention a great way of exposing casual fans — the number of people who Google “2016 mlb mock draft” that find this site is insane, at least relative to the four people who read on their own volition otherwise — to players they might have not yet heard of. I might attempt a mock like that between now and June. Or not. Either way, this ain’t it.
So until then (or not) we’ll have some fun and take the idea of a mock draft to the logical extreme. If “mock” means to make something seem laughably unreal or impossible, let’s make our mock draft as unreal or impossible as we can. Our second edition of this 2016 MLB Mock Draft is based on the top 34 teams (by pre-tournament seeding) in this year’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. The top 34 schools (listed below) are the only universities that teams were allowed to draft from in this mock. Unlike last week’s, however, there is no limit to how many players can be drafted off of any one school. That means some teams get nobody selected while others have multiple picks to celebrate. It’s not fair, but it’s life. Here were the universities eligible for this mock listed in descending order based on their pre-tournament seeding…
34. Butler
33. Providence
32. St. Joseph’s
31. USC
30. Colorado
29. Texas Tech
28. Oregon State
27. Iowa
26. Dayton
25. Wisconsin
24. Seton Hall
23. Arizona
22. Notre Dame
21. Texas
20. Baylor
19. Maryland
18. Purdue
17. Indiana
16. Iowa State
15. Kentucky
14. California
13. Duke
12. Texas A&M
11. Utah
10. Miami (FL)
9. West Virginia
8. Xavier
7. Villanova
6. Oklahoma
5. Michigan State
4. Oregon
3. Virginia
2. North Carolina
1. Kansas
Any 2016 MLB draft-eligible player from any of those schools is up for grabs. Let’s get mocking…
*****
1 – Philadelphia Phillies – Miami C Zack Collins
The Phillies would be tasked from picking from an impressive group of college talent if forced to comply with these ridiculous rules. Three of the arms rumored to be in the 1-1 mix in the real world — Matt Krook, Alec Hansen, and Connor Jones — would all be available to them thanks to the impressive basketball being played at Oregon, Oklahoma, and Virginia, respectively. Interestingly enough, all three are plagued with the same general concern: wildness. Jones has the most complete résumé and the least overall concern about his control (4.03 BB/9 last year, down to 2.11 BB/9 so far this year). Much has been made about Hansen’s consistently inconsistent start (6.99 BB/9) while Krook’s wild ways (7.92 BB/9) have largely been glossed over. Part of that is likely due to giving Krook an early season mulligan as he makes his way back from last year’s Tommy John surgery and part is probably due to Hansen being the higher profile player nationally, but the fact that some of the most talented arms in this college class come with major control (and command and consistency and changeup) questions can’t be ignored. The risk with either at 1-1 is just too high. As mentioned, Jones is the less risky play, but, as so often happens, comes with a little less upside. Much as I like Jones, if I’m going with a college arm with the first overall pick in a draft I want a guy I can confidently project as a potential ace. He may show enough to reach that point in the coming months, but as of today I can’t do it.
With the top pitchers out of the running, Collins becomes the clear pick. His bat is too special to pass up. The pick is made easier when you factor in the Phillies being particularly deep as an organization behind the plate. With Andrew Knapp and Jorge Alfaro set to begin the year at AAA and AA respectively, there would be little pressure for the Phils to play Collins as a catcher if they deemed him unlikely to remain there over the long haul. Ideally he’d impress as a catcher and they’d have the great eventual problem of having too many catchers — a predicted problem for hundreds of teams throughout the history of the game that has not once come to fruition — but shifting him to first and letting him know his job is to hit, hit, and hit some more isn’t the worst idea in the world. Knapp/Alfaro, Collins, Kingery, Crawford, Franco, Randolph, Herrera/Quinn, and Williams may not quite rival the Cubs young core, but it’s not half-bad either.
(I have this very underdeveloped idea about how taking Collins at 1-1 in a real draft wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world based on a comparison of using a top ten pick in the NFL Draft on a running back like Ezekiel Elliott. New conventional wisdom says you don’t draft a 1B or a HB early in the draft because you can find good ones later on, but if it’s a guy who projects to be well above-average at the position and a long-term fixture for you that you don’t have to worry about replacing otherwise…then you have to at least consider it, right? I say this as a dumb Eagles fan who has convinced himself that Elliott with the eighth pick is an attractive option depending on who else is there. With no clear cut college player emerging at 1-1 besides Corey Ray and Kyle Lewis, maybe Collins isn’t the worst idea in the world. I know I’m out on an island with that one, but so be it.)
2 – Cincinnati Reds – Oregon LHP Matt Krook
Everything written about Krook above still applies. He’s been very wild, his command still isn’t back to his pre-injury self, and his velocity (topping at 92, down from his younger peak of 95) remains a work in progress. But he’s still a lefty with a devastating slider, good size (6-3, 200), and a history of missing bats (12.00 K/9 in 2014, 13.33 K/9 this year). When part of the reason for the walks can be explained by throwing a ball that just moves so damn much naturally, it’s a little bit easier to take. At his best (healthiest), Krook features three clearly above-average pitches and the wise beyond his year’s mound savvy to allow you to dream on him heading a rotation for a long time. Adding him to Stephenson, Reed (who Krook shares some similar traits with), and Garrett (among others) would be a lot of fun.
3 – Atlanta Braves – Virginia RHP Connor Jones
Krook to the Braves would have made more sense, what with MLB’s secret mandate that Atlanta collect as many Tommy John reclamation projects as possible. Maybe having Hansen fall past them is a blessing for his formerly tight right forearm. As it is, Jones gets the call. A consistent performer like Jones with a ready-made big league out-pitch (mid-80s cut-slider) would serve as a nice balance to the mix of boom/bust pitching prospects acquired by Atlanta over the past year or two.
4 – Colorado Rockies – Oklahoma RHP Alec Hansen
Because taking just one top-four righthander from Oklahoma within a five year stretch just isn’t enough. Hansen’s fastball is an explosive enough pitch that maybe he’d be a good fit for Coors Field.
5 – Milwaukee Brewers – Virginia C Matt Thaiss
Not everybody is convinced that Thaiss is the real deal, but I am. His one big remaining question heading into the year (defense) has been answered in a decidedly positive manner this spring. He showed enough in high school to garner Brian McCann comps from Baseball America, he hit as a sophomore, and he’s off to a blistering start (including a nifty 15 BB/2 K ratio) in 2016. He’s going early in this draft due in part to our odd rules, but he’s a first round selection on merit. The Brewers have done an excellent job in the early stages of their rebuild and adding a backstop like Thaiss to push Jacob Nottingham (and perhaps make trading Jonathan Lucroy easier to sell to the fans) gives them even more options going forward.
6 – Oakland Athletics – California RHP Daulton Jefferies
A high performing college player who defies conventional scouting wisdom going to Oakland? That’ll work. Jefferies is really, really good.
7 – Miami Marlins – Kentucky 2B JaVon Shelby
I’ve mentioned the comparison before, but Shelby’s prospect profile reads similarly to me to Ian Happ’s. Happ went ninth overall last year, so Shelby going seventh in our weird little mock seems fair. Shelby is also really, really good.
8 – San Diego Padres – Notre Dame 2B Cavan Biggio
Sometimes I feel as though I’m the last remaining Cavan Biggio fan. I know that’s not literally true, but I do still believe in him as a potential long-time big league regular. Offensively he strikes me as the kind of player who will hit better as a pro than he ever did as a college player. I don’t have much of anything to back that opinion up, but this is a mock draft so unsubstantiated claims are part of the deal.
9 – Detroit Tigers – Oregon State C Logan Ice
This pick works on multiple levels for me. Most obviously, Ice’s fast start at the plate and well-established reputation behind it warrants a top ten pick in this draft over some other higher profile college peers. It also works because Detroit seems to have a thing for college catchers. As somebody with a similar thing, I get it. In recent years they’ve plucked James McCann, Bryan Holaday, Kade Scivicque, Grayson Greiner, and Shane Zeile from the college ranks, aggressively promoting many of them along the way. Holaday, a sixth rounder back in 2010, was the only one of that bunch not picked within the draft’s first five rounds. That’s where Ice was expected to land coming into the year, but he could rise up to McCann draft levels (second round) if he keeps mashing.
10 – Chicago White Sox – Oklahoma 3B Sheldon Neuse
Recently got a Mike Olt draft comparison for Sheldon Neuse. Thought that was a pretty strong comp. Also liked that it was a draft comparison and not necessarily a pro prospect match. Olt’s big league disappointments don’t change the fact that he’s a really talented ballplayer capable of looking really good for long stretches at a time. Players develop in all kinds of different ways, so expecting one guy to follow another’s path is unwise. Maybe Neuse will fulfill his promise professionally in a way that Olt wasn’t able. Maybe he’ll experience similar developmental road blocks and see his game stall in a similar manner. Olt went 49th overall in the 2010 MLB Draft; snagging Neuse at any point after that would be a steal in 2016.
11 – Seattle Mariners – Arizona 3B Bobby Dalbec
Dalbec deserves a lot of credit for battling back from a slow start to now have a more than respectable 2016 overall batting line. He also deserves respect for being one of the realest 2016 MLB Draft prospects out there. What you see is what you get with Dalbec: massive power, lots of whiffs, and a fair amount of walks. His arm and athleticism help make up for a lack of easy lateral quickness at the hot corner, so sticking at third should remain an option for the foreseeable future. The older, popular, and common comp for him has been Troy Glaus; on the flip side, I’ve heard Chris Dominguez as a possible outcome. The Glaus ship appears to have sailed, so something in between that and Dominguez would be a fine professional result.
12 – Boston Red Sox – North Carolina RHP Zac Gallen
It’ll be really interesting to see how high Gallen will rise in the real draft come June. He’s the kind of relatively safe, high-floor starting pitching prospect who either sticks in the rotation for a decade or tops out as a sixth starter better served moving to the bullpen to see if his stuff plays up there. This aggressive (pretend) pick by Boston should point to what side of that debate I side with. Gallen doesn’t do any one thing particularly well — stellar fastball command and a willingness to keep pounding in cutters stand out — but he throws five (FB, cutter, truer SL, CB, CU) pitches for strikes and competes deep into just about every start. There’s serious value in that.
13 – Tampa Bay Rays – Duke RHP Bailey Clark
On the other end of the spectrum is a guy like Bailey Clark. Clark has dynamite stuff: 90-96 FB (98 peak), mid-80s cut-SL that flashes plus, and an extra firm 87-90 split-CU with some promise. The fastball alone is a serious weapon capable of getting big league hitters out thanks the combination of velocity and natural movement. What continues to hold Clark back is pedestrian command: having great stuff is key, but falling behind every hitter undercuts that advantage. Questions about his delivery — I personally don’t stress about that so much, but it’s worth noting — and that inconsistent command could force him into the bullpen sooner rather than later. He’d be a knockout reliever if that winds up being the case, but the prospect of pro development keeping him as a starter is too tantalizing to give up on just yet.
14 – Cleveland Indians – Kentucky RHP Kyle Cody
There’s a reason Clark and Cody are back-to-back here. Just about everything written about Clark above can apply to Cody here. The big righthander from Kentucky also has the natural comparison to fellow big righthander from Kentucky Alex Meyer looming over him. I did the Twins a favor by having him go off the board one pick before they could get tempted all over again.
15 – Minnesota Twins – Kentucky RHP Zack Brown
Brown is a college righty with the three pitches to keep starting but questionable command that could necessitate a move to relief down the line. There are a lot of guys like him in every class, but I like Brown’s steady improvement across the board over the years as the tie-breaker.
16 – Los Angeles Angels – Oregon LHP Cole Irvin
Irvin is living proof that the second full year back from Tommy John surgery is when a pitcher really starts to get it all back. I can only hope that teammate Matt Krook is noticing. I guess it would be weird if he wasn’t, right? Irvin has his velocity back (88-92), his changeup remains a weapon, and the results (5.01 K/9 last year up to 9.10 K/9 this year) are trending in the right (healthy) direction.
17 – Houston Astros – USC C Jeremy Martinez
I’ve long thought that Jeremy Martinez has been underrated as a college player, so I’m happy to get a few sentences off about how much I like him here. Martinez was born to catch with a reliable glove and accurate arm. His offensive game is equally well-rounded with the chance for an average hit tool and average raw power to go along with his standout approach. His ceiling may not be high enough for all teams to fall in love, but he’s as good a bet as any of the college catchers in this class to have a long big league career in some capacity or another.
18 – New York Yankees – Texas A&M OF Nick Banks
Hunter Renfroe went thirteenth overall in the 2013 MLB Draft, so his 2016 doppelganger Nick Banks going a few spots later seems appropriate. Banks is one of the many hitters with questionable BB/K marks before the season that scouts insisted had more mature approaches at the plate than the raw numbers suggested. The scouts have been redeemed by most of those hitters — Kyle Lewis most famously — but Banks has continued to struggle (5 BB/10 K) out of the gate so far. He could still have a fine pro career without polishing up his approach — he’s a legit five-tool guy with no singular grade falling below average on most scout cards — but plugging that last remaining hole could mean the difference between good and great. Apologies here to Boomer White and JB Moss, two excellent senior-sign outfield prospects out of A&M that have decidedly outperformed Banks so far in the early going. Both guys may have hit their way into top ten round money saving pick consideration.
19 – New York Mets – Texas A&M Ryan Hendrix
Zach Jackson out of Arkansas has consistently been mentioned as my favorite college reliever who might just be able to start in the pros, but Ryan Hendrix is coming on really fast. He’s got the heat (mid-90s peak), breaking ball (low- to mid-80s CB flashes plus), and enough of a changeup (83-86) to potentially make the switch to the rotation at the next level. If not, he’s a potential quick-moving reliever with late-inning upside. Win-win!
20 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Maryland RHP Mike Shawaryn
Few players have seen their stock dip as much as Shawaryn has so far this spring. Considered by many (or just me, who can remember…) to be on the same tier as the Daulton Jefferies’ of the world coming into the season, Shawaryn has struggled with pitching effectively while dealing with a decrease in fastball velocity and flattened out offspeed stuff. He’s still a top five round prospect with big league starter upside, but no longer the potential first day pick many were hoping to see coming into the year. The positive spin is that it’s entirely possible he’s just going through a bit of a dead arm period brought about by general fatigue right now and that a little bit of rest after the draft in June will bring back the kind of stuff that looked more mid-rotation caliber than fifth starter. If that’s the case, the moment he slips out of the top two rounds would represent major value for whatever team takes a shot on him.
21 – Toronto Blue Jays – Oregon RHP Stephen Nogosek
Another college reliever! Stephen Nogosek is one of the most interesting of his kind in this year’s class. He’s not the two-pitch fire-balling righthander with the plus breaking ball that teams view as a classic late-inning type. Nogosek commands four pitches for strikes, relying more on the overall depth of his repertoire than any one singular go-to offering. Many speculate that his delivery lends itself to shorter outings, but I’m not convinced that a pro team won’t at least consider using him in the rotation at some point.
22 – Pittsburgh Pirates – Oregon State SS Trever Morrison
Morrison came into the year known more for his glove than his bat, but the junior’s hot start had many upgrading his ceiling from utility guy to potential regular. He’s cooled off a bit since then, but his glove, arm, and speed all remain intriguing above-average tools. I think really good utility guy is a more appropriate ceiling for him at the moment, but there’s still a lot of season left to play. Morrison is a surprisingly divisive prospect among those I’ve talked to, so any guesses about his draft range would be nothing more than guesses. He does feel like the kind of guy who would wind up a Pirate, so at least we’ve got that going for us.
23 – St. Louis Cardinals – Miami OF Willie Abreu
The Cardinals throw caution to the wind and bet big on tools by selecting Abreu and his ugly 7 BB/25 K ratio here in the first round. With three picks in the first, you can take a gamble like this. Abreu’s raw power is at or near the top of this class, so the logic in such a pick is easy to see.
24 – San Diego Padres – California C Brett Cumberland
I’m not sure too many casual prospect fans realize that true sophomore Cumberland, set to turn 21 on June 25, is eligible for this year’s draft. I know I have a lot less scouting notes on him than I’d typically have for a draft-eligible prospect in the midst of one of the best seasons of any position player in college baseball. The steady receiver hit really well as a freshman last year (.429 SLG with 33 BB/41 K), but has taken it to the next level so far in 2016. Good defense, very real power, and success at the college level from day one? Just what this class needs, one more top five round college catcher.
25 – San Diego Padres – Indiana RHP Jake Kelzer
The real draft will no doubt be much kinder to the Padres, but grabbing Biggio, Cumberland, and Kelzer in this universe’s draft isn’t anything to be disappointed in. Two mature bats at up-the-middle defensive positions would help San Diego continue their stated goal of building that way (the return for trade backs that up) and Kelzer, a highly athletic 6-8, 235 pound righthander with a nasty hard slider, would be a fine addition to their growing collection of arms.
26 – Chicago White Sox – Texas Tech RHP Ryan Moseley
Much like the Willie Abreu pick above, taking Moseley this high is gambling on tools over performance. I’ve long been a fan of the sinker/slider archetype and Moseley does it about as well as any pitcher in this class. When I start digging into batted ball data to find GB% in the coming weeks, he’ll be the first name I look up. On physical ability, a case could be made that Moseley deserves this first round spot. If we’re talking early season production…not so much. As we mentioned before, some young pitchers throw with so much natural movement that they are unable to effectively harness the raw stuff with which they’ve been blessed. Moseley’s track record suggests just that. Taking him this high would be a gamble that the developmental side of your organization can straighten him out. There are too many teams besides the White Sox that I’d be so confident they could pull off the trick.
27 – Baltimore Orioles – Baylor LHP Daniel Castano
I haven’t heard Daniel Castano’s name mentioned as a top ten round pick much this spring, but I don’t see why he wouldn’t be in the mix. He’s a big lefty with three average or better pitches who has made the long-awaited leap (8.51 K/9 this year, up from the 5 or so K/9 of his first two seasons). I’m in.
28 – Washington Nationals – Michigan State LHP Cameron Vieaux
Everything written about Castano above applies to Vieaux here. The only notable difference is that Vieaux’s jump in performance is a little less pronounced (8.61 K/9 this year, up from the 7 or so K/9 the two previous seasons) yet no less impressive. Vieaux also have the chance to be a four-pitch lefty in the pros, so I guess that makes two differences.
29 – Washington Nationals – Texas A&M 2B Ryne Birk
Birk has worked his tail off to become a competent defender at the keystone, so selecting him this early is a vote of confidence in his glove passing the professional barrier of quality in the eyes of his first wave of pro coaches. I think he’s more than good enough at second with an intriguing enough upside as a hitter to make a top five round pick worth it. Offensively he’s shown average power, above-average speed, and good feel for contact. Sorting out his approach will be the difference between fun utility option or solid starter once he hits pro ball. He reminds me a good bit of Trever Morrison as a prospect, right down to the slightly off spellings of their respective first names.
30 – Texas Rangers – North Carolina OF Tyler Ramirez
Ramirez doesn’t have a carrying tool that makes him an obvious future big league player, but he does a lot of things well (power, speed, glove) and leverages an ultra-patient approach to put himself in consistently positive hitter’s counts. His profile is a little bit similar to his teammate Zac Gallen’s in that both are relatively high-floor prospects without the kind of massive ceilings one would expect in a first day pick. Gallen is the better prospect, but I think many of the national guys are sleeping on Ramirez. I’ve been guilty of overrating Tar Heels hitters in the past, but Ramirez looks like the real deal. Former Carolina outfielder Tim Fedroff, a seventh round pick in 2008, seems like a reasonable draft day expectation in terms of round selected. I’d happily snap up a guy like Ramirez in that range.
31 – New York Mets – Miami OF Jacob Heyward
Steady year-to-year improvement has been the name of Heyward’s game as a Hurricane. It’s more of a fourth outfielder profile than a slam dunk future regular ceiling, but he’s a solid, well-rounded player capable of doing just enough of everything to keep you invested.
32 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Miami RHP Bryan Garcia
Garcia has late-game reliever stuff (mid-90s FB, good SL) and pedigree (15.88 K/9 this year) to get himself drafted as one of the first true college relievers in his class.
33 – St. Louis Cardinals – Michigan State RHP Dakota Mekkes
If you read this site and/or follow college ball closely, this might be the first pick to surprise in some way, shape, or form. Mekkes wasn’t a pitcher mentioned in many 2016 draft preview pieces before the start of the season, but the 6-7, 250 pound righty has opened plenty of eyes in getting off to a dominant (16.36 K/9) albeit wild (7.16 BB/9) start to 2016. His stuff backs it up (FB up to 94, interesting SL, deceptive delivery), so he’s more than just a large college man mowing down overmatched amateurs. He’s a top ten round possibility now.
34 – St. Louis Cardinals – Duke LHP Jim Ziemba
A 6-10, 230 pound lefthander who goes after hitters from a funky sidearm delivery is a great way to cap this weird mock off. The obvious Michael Freeman comp is too good to ignore here.
The Baseball Draft Report 