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Scott Kingery, Willie Calhoun, and the 2015 MLB Draft
Real life has had me busy lately and my queued up supply of posts has finally run dry, so let’s do something a little different. Figure if we’re going to experiment, then Friday is the right day for it, you know? This might be a bit too stream of consciousness-y for some, but we’ll try it anyway.
In a recent Perfect Game piece, a few comps for Arizona JR 2B/OF Scott Kingery, easily one of my favorite college bats in this year’s class, were mentioned. As a sucker for a good comp, I was pleased to see the perfectly logical names Ian Kinsler and Jason Kipnis brought up. I like both, though the last time PG used Kipnis (to my knowledge) was when Frankie Piliere (who is now at D1 Baseball and still great, by the way) compared him to Phillip Ervin. Kingery and Ervin as comp cousins doesn’t pass my personal smell test, but to each his own. On the surface, Kipnis is pretty spot-on for a variety of reasons (same state, same position switch, vaguely similar build); here’s an excerpt from his Baseball America draft scouting report…
Kipnis doesn’t have one standout tool, but can do a little bit of everything. He has a patient approach and a line-drive swing. He has shown he can hit quality pitching, though he doesn’t profile for big power with a wood bat, making him a potential tweener. While his defense in center field has improved, he doesn’t have the range to stay there long-term–yet he might not hit enough to man a corner spot. He may also get a chance to try second base.
I like it more than love it, but it’s at least worth thinking about. I’d say, if anything, Kingery is ahead of where Kipnis was as a prospect at a similar point in their respective development. Kingery’s glove is definitely ahead, both in terms of getting a head start at second base and being flat better across the board. You could make an argument for Kipnis’s bat being ahead back then, but I’d personally go with Kingery’s upside with the stick all the same. Fun final college season stat comparison…
JK: .384/.500/.709
SK: .467/.500/.715
ANYWAY, this post isn’t even about Kingery. I mean, it kind of is because the PG piece got me thinking about other potential comps for Kingery. One of my favorites that I heard recently is a slightly more physical version of Ray Durham, an massively underrated player who can lead you down a very long, very weird Baseball-Reference rabbit hole if you’re not careful. I say that because — big surprise — that’s exactly what happened to me this afternoon. But this post isn’t solely about Kingery because I, of course, had to take things a step further. Self-obsessed individual that I am, I had to check my own damn site to see if I had mentioned Durham in the past. Turns out I had…
2B Willie Calhoun (Benicia HS, California): love his hit tool, easy above-average; average defender; gap power; average speed; good enough arm; great patience; PG Ray Durham comp; have heard a shorter Jay Bell; 5-8, 170 pounds
Good old Willie Calhoun. Went to Arizona for a year, scuffled somewhat at first glance but wound up holding his own more than most non-stud freshman (.247/.345/.301 with 19 BB/11 K in 146 AB), and doing more of the same on the Cape that summer (.245/.331/.331 with 15 BB/15 K in 139 AB), all before transferring to Yavapai JC (Kyle Blanks, Kole Calhoun, Curt Schilling, and Ken Giles all passed through there, among others) where he’s now hitting a robust .443/.520/.940 with 24 BB/8 K in 167 AB. Wait, what: .443/.520/.940 with 24 BB/8 K in 167 AB? All obvious caveats (mainly level of competition and geography/playing conditions) aside, those are numbers of a player worth knowing more about, right?
When a player is literally hitting a homer every other game (or close to it: 22 HR in 47 G), then learning more seems like the smart play. Yavapai’s status as a consistently strong junior college program (they are 34-14 this year) who produce a good bit of big league talent (see the list above) and fields a team this year with a potential top five round pitcher in SO RHP Chandler Eden (Oregon State transfer) and another intriguing prospect in SO 3B Luke Doyle all add up to there being plenty of scouting heat at their games this season. I did a little digging to see what some are saying while also going back deeper into my notes on him from his high school days.
Calhoun has experience over the years at second, third, and in the outfield. At last check he’s not particularly great at any of those spots, but should be around average at his natural position of second base with continued work. Average-ish glove at multiple spots, average wheels, and an average at best arm (that might be generous, but it at least plays at second) can all be worked around with a bat like Calhoun’s. In addition to his innate ability for hard contact, he has a very well-trained eye that allows him to swing at “his” pitches and spit on those he doesn’t like. He has no problem hitting with two strikes and excels at driving the ball to all fields. The uptick in power this year lends credence to those I talked to while Calhoun was still in HS who believed he could eventually develop his way into double-digit professional home run pop. The overall offensive profile is quite appealing for a player with a strong chance to stick up the middle, to say nothing of when you should be able to grab him in the draft (hint: not early) and what the expectations of him will be as he enters pro ball.
If you read the site often, then you know I don’t do “sleepers” because — really — what does that word even mean anyway, and Calhoun was too well-regarded out of high school to fit what I personally think the term should mean, but if you want to go ahead and call him that, I won’t stop you. What he lacks in size, exposure, and over the top physical ability, he more than makes up for in the batter’s box. I love loud tools as much as anybody, but there will always be a place in the game for a hitter like Calhoun who can crack line drives pole to pole, work deep counts, and sneak a few over the fence when he’s feeling strong.
2015 GB% Mid-April Update
Nathan Kirby – 66.3%
Michael Matuella – 55.8%
Walker Buehler – 62.7%
Dillon Tate – 67.8%
Carson Fulmer – 45.7%
Kyle Funkhouser – 60.4%
Phillip Bickford – 53.3%
Jake Lemoine – 58.5%
Kyle Twomey – 61.3%
Alex Young – 60.4%
First, a quick thanks for all those that stumble across this site for whatever reason and click around a bit to see what we’ve been working on. An even bigger thanks to those of you who knowingly come back time after time. I never had expectations in terms of traffic, but it’s still pretty cool to see things trending upwards the way they have over the past few months. Yesterday was a non-June record high for the site, which is both exciting and more than a little funny since it happened on one of the very few weekdays I didn’t publish a post (did my TAXES and went to the DENTIST instead because I’m an ADULT now) since the start of December. This has easily been the most fun I’ve had covering a draft and we’re only getting started.
I’ve been sky high on Kirby in the past, so seeing some of the reports of him having less than stellar stuff in recent starts is a definite bummer. I’m still choosing to believe that he’s being knocked a tad unfairly by experts who put more stock (rightly or wrongly, it’s up to you to decide) in the one outing or so that they see firsthand than the information they gather along the way from individuals who see a player far more often, but it’s a situation well worth monitoring going forward.
Like many experts have already alluded to — or, in one case, reported and then quickly deleted for reasons unknown — concerns within baseball about Matuella’s recovery from Tommy John surgery are far less than whatever is going on with Brady Aiken’s left elbow. That said, since rumblings of complications have not yet manifested themselves in concrete news items, I’d still rank the more talented Aiken ahead of Matuella as of this second. There’s been so much interesting stuff written about the Tommy John procedure (much of it concluding with an attitude of “hey, let’s all pump the breaks on assuming it’s an easy in/out recovery and appreciate how rare it is for even the best athletes to overcome tearing a ligament in the most important part of their body”) over the past few months that I’m now wary of putting either prospect in the top ten conversation. Based on what we think we know at this point — a dangerous game to be sure, but it’s all we’ve got right now — any team drafting Aiken, and to a lesser extent Matuella, has to be prepared for the possibility that they’ll wind up getting nothing out of the pick. I think both players are talented enough, hard working enough, and young enough to recover and eventually pitch in the big leagues, but I’m no doctor…and even if I was, I wouldn’t know anything from the outside looking in at this point. Confusing stuff, really. This may just confuse things further (I’ve waffled a bit since then), but I wrote this to a friend (tried to edit out as much of the local spin as possible) the day after Aiken announced he had the surgery. Much of it presupposes that Aiken’s injury is more standard than what the rumors of late have indicated. I can only hope that this is the case for all involved. Here’s what I wrote last month…
Brady Aiken very stealthily went under the knife last night to repair his busted elbow. Everybody knew he wasn’t right, and in a weird way I’m glad that this was the cause for his average stuff of late. The success rate for Tommy John surgery isn’t what it used to be — it went from a scary thing to a seemingly normal thing and now it’s back to being kind of scary again — but it’s still a reliable enough procedure that I think I’d take it (with appropriate recovery time) over some of the other rumored possibilities (back, shoulder, hip). What does it all mean for the top of the draft?
I’d personally still consider taking Aiken with a top ten pick, but only if everybody in the organization was on the same page about his recovery and development. If it was up to me, I’d plan on him not pitching in a real game until the end of June 2016 (when Rookie ball starts) at the earliest. That’s admittedly a tough pill to swallow since teams picking in the top ten need RESULTS NOW out of their picks to an extent (you don’t have to give in to public pressure and much of the public doesn’t really follow the draft so much anyway, but some teams value this more than others), so I’d understand the trepidation felt by those against the pick. I’d be adamant about holding him out until I was sure he was right. The research on “rushing” guys back is pretty illuminating and a sobering reminder that any arm surgery is a big deal. If you really want to consider the long view, then fourteen months should be the prescribed minimum for this kind of thing per the numbers. Of course, everybody is built differently and standardizing recovery times and rehabilitation has it’s own downsides.
As to that last point, Lucas Giolito is the easiest point of reference from recent history. He was back from TJ in a crazy ten months: surgery on 8/31/12 and back in game action 7/3/13. The ongoing recovery of Jeff Hoffman should also be considered. I think there’s a non-zero chance that those players could both be freaks (in a great way), so it’s hard to use them as measuring sticks. Aiken strikes me as another freaky athlete with the chance to get back on the mound quicker than most, but that’s without knowing the extent of the injury. As far as the draft goes, it’s far from a sure thing teams picking in the back half of the top ten/early teens will even get a chance at Aiken. An injured Hoffman went ninth in the very same draft that a healthy Aiken went first. If Hoffman could go ninth in a better draft (an arguable point, but I freely admit that I hold the minority view that this year’s top half of the first round is every bit as good as last year’s…though with every passing injury this becomes a more difficult position to maintain), then why couldn’t the more talented Aiken do the same or better this year?
My number one hope above all else right now is for whatever team that drafts Aiken does so with a plan in place for his recovery. More to the point, I hope they take the long view with him and don’t give in to rushing his recovery in any way. He’s so damn talented (and young for his class) that the lost developmental time is hardly a killer in the long run. After getting his feet wet in Rookie ball next summer, he could be on a path that would include combined A ball in 2017, AA in 2018, and a shot at the big leagues at some point in 2019. That’s probably too slow a timeline for most fans and/or bosses with jobs on the line (he’d still just be 23 that August), so I could see wanting to pass on him. You could conceivably move that up a bit (skip Low-A, go A+/AA in 2017, AA/AAA in 2018 before potentially getting an audition for the ’19 rotation that September), but, advanced or not (and he is quite advanced, make no mistake), that’s a really aggressive path for a “high school” arm like Aiken. And, of course, this all assumes no setbacks, on the field or otherwise.
As mentioned previously, I think there is enough high-end pitching talent in this class that passing on an injured pitcher like Aiken or Matuella (who has looked really good and healthy of late), talented as they may be, would be justified. I’d lean towards taking the risk right now, but that’s easy to say in March…and when all that is at stake is your internet reputation and not your livelihood.
See the bolded part in that last paragraph? See how quickly things can change when following the draft? Damn. I’ve just depressed myself unintentionally from the past. Let’s get positive…
Buehler and Tate: both as advertised all year long. Strong argument to be made that they are the 1-2 in terms of college pitching in this class, though the order would be flipped (Tate then Buehler). Funkhouser and Twomey have also come on strong of late. I think the former might just pitch his way into top ten lock status soon (I’m still more in like with him than in love with him, but I’m a bit behind on his recent performances so we’ll see) while the latter could still sneak himself into the back of the first round.
Pac-12 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team – PITCHERS
First Team
UCLA JR RHP James Kaprielian
USC JR LHP Kyle Twomey
Arizona State JR LHP Brett Lilek
Oregon rSO LHP Cole Irvin
UCLA JR RHP Cody Poteet
Second Team
Stanford JR RHP Marc Brakeman
Arizona State JR LHP Ryan Kellogg
Arizona State JR RHP Ryan Burr
Oregon JR LHP Garrett Cleavinger
Oregon State JR RHP Andrew Moore
I’m oddly fascinated at the idea of a pitcher with a “four-pitch mix” because I feel like that phrase almost exclusively is thrown around at the amateur level. Maybe you’ll hear it at times for minor leaguers, but depth of repertoire is not something discussed much in the big leagues. Obviously this is because we’ve got a self-selecting sample and pitchers without the requisite three or four pitches needed to run through lineups multiple times have already been converted to relief, but I still think there’s perhaps something to the way evaluators overrate prospects with a ton of decent pitches (who must be starters then!) and underrate young arms with two knockout pitches (relief all the way!) without factoring in that pitchers can in fact develop additional effective pitches along the way. I’m not saying a young guy who can’t throw a curve will one day wake up finding one in his wrist, but there have been enough recent examples of pitchers tinkering around the edges with grips that help previously unusable pitches (changeups, cutters, occasionally sliders) suddenly work to help get advanced hitters out. Even my old notes on Michael Wacha, a player that I think compares in certain respect to the guy we’re eventually going to talk about, make mention of this phenomena…
Texas A&M JR RHP Michael Wacha: big velocity jump during college tenure – once peaked only as high as 92, but now regularly sits 90-95 FB, hitting 96-97; like many young arms, can get himself in trouble when he overthrows fastball and it begins to straighten out; somewhat similar to Kyle Zimmer in the way he relied on excellent fastball command before seeing a velocity spike; holds velocity well, very rarely dipping below 90; have heard he’ll throw his legitimate plus to plus-plus CU with two distinct grips: one at 82-85 with the circle change grip, the other more of an upper-70s straight change; either way, the CU should be a weapon from day one on; occasional 81-85 SL with cutter action; also will go with a very rare upper-70s CB that could be the breaking pitch he’ll be asked to run with as a pro; neither breaking ball is pro-ready, but both have flashed enough that it is easy to imagine a pro staff believing it can coach him up; natural comparison is Ryan Madson, especially if Wacha never develops a consistent third pitch and is used out of the bullpen; as a starter, I think there are some similarities in terms of stuff when you compare him to Braves prospect Julio Teheran; 6-6, 200 pounds
Wacha wasn’t quite a two-pitch guy in college, but he was close. The idea that a player capable of hitting the mid-90s with an easy plus change, clean mechanics, and a prototypical starter’s frame would be relegated to the bullpen because of an iffy present third pitch was silly at the time and downright preposterous in hindsight. Thankfully, it also represents a learning experience and the chance to reevaluate what elements are most crucial when projecting pitchers into the future. Going back to the idea that amateurs need three or four pitches to start spurred me to look up what big league arms actually throw four quality pitches. The only three starting pitchers I found with positive pitch values (per Fangraphs) for each of the four pitches in the classic “four-pitch mix” (FB/CU/CB/SL) last season were Felix Hernandez, Anibal Sanchez, and Tanner Roark. If you expand it to include relievers, then Danny Farquhar, Tom Wilhelmsen, and Zach Duke join the fun. If you let David Price’s cutter in stand in for a slider, then you can add him to the starter party. Many players were close (Clayton Kershaw, Julio Teheran, Matt Garza, and Scott Kazmir to name a few) and the whole thing is about as unscientific as you can get, but I found it interesting and a fine use of five spare minutes.
This whole discussion goes back to a “four-pitch mix,” which admittedly is a bit of a strawman of a premise in the first place. I don’t know of anybody who says you NEED four pitches to make it as a starting pitcher in the big leagues. Three pitches is the most common baseline and a quick spin around Fangraphs Pitch Type leaderboard validates this idea. The only two pitchers you could even make a flimsy argument for being two-pitch starters (out of the 88 player sample of 2014 qualified pitchers) are Bartolo Colon (11.8% SL, 5.6% CU) and Lance Lynn (10.2% SL, 8.4% CB, 2.4% CU). Those two might be closest, but neither is what I’d expect anybody to call a two-pitch pitcher. Lynn, who is literally (!) a four-pitch pitcher, being included in this conversation at all is somehow both absurd (he throws four pitches!) and justified (showing a pitch and throwing a pitch aren’t the same, right?), but the whole thing is still a stretch. The three pitch minimum lives on.
That was a lot of words when I could have simply said that even though years of being in and around the game have conditioned me to want to see three usable big league pitches on any amateur (college, especially) before feeling confident enough to project him as a big league starter pitcher, I’ve come around to the idea that young guys with two above-average or better pitches can be just as likely to develop a usable third pitch as a more advanced at present peer. Even shorter still: give me the pitcher with two nasty pitches over the one with four average pitches, assuming all else (delivery, athleticism, command, control, etc.) is equal.
This all brings me to the guy I think Wacha compares to on some level, UCLA JR RHP James Kaprielian. Draft people like me who sometimes try to get too cute for own good have fought it in the past, but there’s no denying that Kaprielian warrants a first round grade this June. Well-built righthanders with four pitches (ding!) and consistently excellent results in a tough conference profile as big league starting pitchers more often than not. I’m going to just go with an excerpt of some of my notes on Kaprielian because they are among the longest running that I have on any player in this college class…
JR RHP James Kaprielian (2015): 87-92 FB, 94-95 peak; potential plus 79-84 CB, commands it well; potential plus 80-85 CU with serious sink; above-average 79-85 SL; good athlete; excellent overall command; 2014 Summer: 88-92 FB, 93 peak; above-average to plus or better 75-79 CB with plus command, still gets it up to 85 depending on situation; average or better upside with 79-82 SL; FAVORITE; average or better upside with mid-80s CU with splitter action; UPDATE: 83-85 SL, flashes above-average; average 78-80 CB with above-average to plus upside; good athlete; commands both breaking balls well; 2015: 89-94 FB; above-average 78-81 CB flashes plus; above-average 83-85 SL; above-average mid-80s CU, flashes better; 6-4, 200 pounds (2013: 12.39 K/9 | 5.09 BB/9 | 2.20 FIP | 40.2 IP) (2014: 9.17 K/9 – 2.97 BB/9 – 106 IP – 2.29 ERA)
The UPDATE and 2015 sections give the most pertinent information (88-94 FB, 95 peak; above-average 78-81 CB, flashes plus; average 83-85 SL, flashes above-average; above-average mid-80s CU with drop, flashes plus; good athleticism; commands both breaking balls ably; plus overall command), but I like including the whole thing (or as much as can be published) to highlight the growth he’s made. Kaprielian is damn good and smart team picking in the latter half of the first round will get a quick-moving mid-rotation arm who still might have a bit of upside left in him beyond that.
On the other end of the spectrum (kind of) is USC JR LHP Kyle Twomey. Twomey has long been a favorite thanks to a fastball/changeup combination (just two pitches, gasp!) good enough to get big league swings and misses within the year. His fastball doesn’t have premium velocity (87-92, 94 peak), but the heaps of movement he gets on it make it a consistent above-average to plus offering. His change does a lot of the same things from the same arm speed, making the 78-82 MPH pitch above-average with plus upside. Those two pitches and room to grow on a 6-3, 170 pound frame make him a very appealing prospect. There are some issues that will need ironing out at the pro level – deciding on whether to further refine his cutter/slider hybrid or tightening up his soft curve, plus improving his overall control and offspeed command – but the pieces are there for him to make it as a big league starting pitcher.
I was all about UCLA rSO LHP Hunter Virant heading into the season as a prospect with no college track record storming up boards and claiming his spot in the first round. I think on the original iteration of this list he was in the top five. Whoops. His situation in school isn’t exactly the same as Matt Purke’s, but there are enough depressing similarities to the two that I think citing their stories might give the push to recommend pro ball to any young arm. That’s not to say that anything specifically done to Virant while at UCLA has damaged his pro prospects; pitchers get hurt no matter the time and place. Heck, if anything you could argue that Virant is better off with (presumably) three years of coursework towards a degree at a fine university than he would have been taking bonus money out of high school and flaming out of pro ball by now. Other HS arms I loved once upon a time that have fallen into hard times collegiately include the Stanford duo of JR RHP Freddy Avis and JR RHP Daniel Starwalt. I still have hope for all these players, but every day that passes without them pitching effectively on the mound (or pitching at all, really) makes it a little tougher to justify the faith.
In happier news, Oregon rSO LHP Cole Irvin’s return from injury (Tommy John) has gone fairly well to date. I’d say he’s done enough to show he should be in the top five round mix this June, especially when his pre-injury talent level, athleticism, control, and plus-plus pickoff move are all taken into account.
Somebody at Perfect Game (I believe) compared Arizona State JR LHP Brett Lilek to a lefty Phil Bickford. I can buy it to some degree as their stuff (and frame and command) isn’t too far off, but Lilek has never shown the same ability to miss bats as Bickford, admittedly at a different level, right now. He’s still a lefthander with size (6-4, 200), velocity (90-94, 95 peak), and three offspeed pitches each with a varying degree of promise (I’d rank them slider, curve, change). Yes, I fully understand the irony of pumping up Lilek, a potential four-pitch pitcher (though more likely three-pitch) with a prospect status built more on the strength of a high likelihood of at least some success (league average starter?) rather than sheer upside, right after my weird little tangent about no longer wanting to overrate prospects just like him. Maybe every prospect should be evaluated on their own merits or something? Lilek’s teammate JR LHP Ryan Kellogg is a similar prospect (size, command, smarts) but has neither the same fastball (87-92) nor the same quality of offspeed stuff. That’s not meant to diminish his ability as he still has a chance (just slightly less so than Lilek for me) to make it as a back-end big league starter.
I swear I’m not making this up, but my notes on UCLA JR RHP Cody Poteet include this exact phrase: “legit four-pitch mix.” I mean, it is true after all. What Poteet lacks in physicality he more than makes up for with the depth of his stuff. I like more than love him as a prospect, but his slider has the makings of a really good pro pitch. USC JR RHP/C Kyle Davis and Oregon State JR RHP Andrew Moore (easy plus command and control guy) give the class two additional short righthanders with well-rounded stuff and strong track records.
Stanford JR RHP Marc Brakeman is more of a two-pitch prospect (like Twomey) that I’ve referenced above. Armed with a nice albeit inconsistent heater (88-94, 95 peak – though I’ve seen him sit more on the low end of that range at times) and an outstanding low-80s changeup, Brakeman could move up boards quickly once he gets healthy again. I’ve been the low man on him in the past, but that’s more due to an intuition thing than anything I can reasonably express.
Arizona State JR RHP Ryan Burr and Oregon JR LHP Garrett Cleavinger stand together as the two best 2015 relief prospects likely to come out of the conference. Burr has gotten some recent love as a possible starter at the next level, but I don’t really see it. Been there, done that. He has the stuff (90-96 FB, above-average low-80s SL, ability to mix in raw yet intriguing mid-80s CU and upper-70s CB) to pull it off, but the delivery, control (though improved), and command all scream reliever to me. I haven’t heard anybody mention Cleavinger as a potential pro starter. Keeping him in the pen also makes sense to me because, though he has the pitches (90-96 FB, above-average breaking ball, average CU) to face a lineup multiple times through, he has the arm action and stamina (stuff plays way up in short bursts) to thrive in the relief role in the pros. There has been some market correction on how teams value college relievers in recent drafts, but I still expect to see Burr go higher than he’ll wind up on my personal board this June. He’s really good, so it isn’t as though that will be a horrible mistake…but assuming Cleavinger (and other “second tier” college relievers) wind up going multiple rounds lower, that’s the value play I’d lean towards.
I’ve said many times I don’t believe in sleepers. I find the whole concept a tad demeaning to all involved. To call somebody a sleeper insults the player, the audience, and the profession (or, if you’d prefer, industry). If you’re any good, somebody somewhere knows who you are, so you’re not a sleeper by my own personal, admittedly crazy narrow, definition. Still, insults might be too strong a word because I don’t take any of this stuff that seriously – I do this entirely for fun, I acknowledge that my influence is nonexistent, I don’t buy into scouting as some sacred insider only thing that only real baseball men can participate in, I actively root for all prospects (even the ones I “miss” on) to do well and make millions and live out all their dreams, etc. – but few things bug me more when reading draft or prospect stuff than really famous players being called “sleepers.” I realize the interest in the MLB Draft isn’t on par with the NFL or NBA counterparts, but when actual paid professional draft writers start with the assumption that their audience only knows players expected to go in the top five picks and then pat themselves on the back years later when their draft “sleeper” (picked, like, fourteenth overall) winds up a great player, a little part of me dies inside. Another example of this is the way that most publications write up at least thirty prospects per organization, but then the one that limits it to ten has the gall to name an additional prospect from each system a “sleeper” and crow when that player — nominally the eleventh ranked player in the system — has a good year. Come on.
I guess instead of sleepers I can just call them players I think I’ll wind up having ranked higher than where they’ll be drafted. Even then, if I like a guy more than most right now and wind up “right” about him as pro teams get wise to his ability/upside, then judging by that standard doesn’t seem particularly fair. Calling them guys I like more than the consensus isn’t very meaningful when most draft rankings only go about fifty deep (if that) up until the week leading up until the draft.
This tangent doesn’t really apply here since many of my potential sleepers (there’s that word again) haven’t quite lived up to expectations so far this year, but there are a few guys that will be drafted fairly late that I like quite bit. I like Arizona State SR RHP Darrin Gillies as a sinker/slider guy with size, Washington SR RHP Brandon Choate for similar reasons (90-94 FB, 96 peak; SL flashes plus; lots of ground balls), Oregon JR RHP Conor Harber (who might be too good to be a sleeper…I have no idea anymore) for his untapped upside, athleticism, and fresh arm, and, in the most decidedly non-sleeper of them all, UCLA SR RHP David Berg, who is just plain fun to watch carve up good hitters in high pressure situations with mid-80s fastballs and impeccable control. If I updated this list today rather than just reusing my existing preseason list with Virant dropped a dozen spots from his original lofty perch, all four guys would be higher than they are below. Harber would be much higher. I also try to tack on a few speculative picks at the end of these rankings when I can (the bottom quarter of many of these lists are mostly a combination of players with clearly defined potential big league roles — like a future lefty specialist or something — or players I don’t know much about with about much of a track record but with substantial upside), so don’t sleep on UCLA rSO RHP Tucker Forbes.
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching
- UCLA JR RHP James Kaprielian
- USC JR LHP Kyle Twomey
- Arizona State JR LHP Brett Lilek
- Oregon rSO LHP Cole Irvin
- UCLA JR RHP Cody Poteet
- Stanford JR RHP Marc Brakeman
- Arizona State JR LHP Ryan Kellogg
- Arizona State JR RHP Ryan Burr
- Oregon JR LHP Garrett Cleavinger
- Oregon State JR RHP Andrew Moore
- Arizona rJR RHP Matthew Troupe
- UCLA rSO LHP Hunter Virant
- USC JR RHP/C Kyle Davis
- Oregon JR RHP/OF Conor Harber
- Arizona State SR RHP Darin Gillies
- Stanford JR RHP Freddy Avis
- Stanford JR RHP Daniel Starwalt
- Arizona JR RHP Nathan Bannister
- Washington SR RHP Brandon Choate
- Washington State rSR RHP Scott Simon
- California JR RHP Ryan Mason
- UCLA rSO RHP Nick Kern
- Arizona State JR RHP/OF David Graybill
- California rSR RHP Dylan Nelson
- Arizona JR LHP Cody Moffett
- Washington JR RHP Troy Rallings
- UCLA SR RHP David Berg
- UCLA SR LHP Grant Watson
- UCLA rSO RHP Tucker Forbes
- Washington rSR RHP Josh Fredendall
- Stanford JR LHP Logan James
- USC JR LHP Marc Huberman
- Stanford SR RHP David Schmidt
- Washington JR RHP Alex Nesbitt
- Utah JR RHP Dalton Carroll
- Utah JR RHP Bret Helton
- Washington State SR RHP Sam Triece
- Arizona State JR RHP/2B Jordan Aboites
- Arizona SR LHP Tyler Crawford
- Arizona JR RHP Tyger Talley
- USC JR LHP Tyler Gilbert
- Washington State SR RHP Sean Hartnett
- USC JR RHP Brooks Kriske
- USC JR RHP Brent Wheatley
- Washington SR RHP Tyler Davis
- Stanford SR LHP Jonathan Hochstatter
- Washington JR RHP Ryan Schmitten
- Washington State JR LHP Matt Bower
Big West 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team
Cal Poly JR C Brian Mundell
UC Davis rSR 1B Nick Lynch
Cal Poly JR 2B Mark Mathias
Cal Poly JR SS Peter Van Gansen
Long Beach State JR 3B Zack Rivera
Cal State Northridge rJR OF Spencer O’Neil
UC Santa Barbara JR OF Dalton Kelly
Hawaii SR OF Keao Aliviado
UC Santa Barbara JR RHP Dillon Tate
Cal State Fullerton JR RHP Thomas Eshelman
Cal State Fullerton JR RHP Justin Garza
UC Santa Barbara JR LHP Justin Jacome
UC Santa Barbara JR RHP Dylan Hecht
I’ve written about Santa Barbara JR RHP Dillon Tate a bit before. One particularly pertinent excerpt…
Speaking of parallels, and I really hate to make this comparison because of how lazy it’ll appear, hear me out with this one. Long-time readers of the site know I do my best to look past player characteristics that don’t matter when it comes to developing comps, so hopefully I get the benefit of the doubt on this one. In all honesty, it makes a lot of baseball sense so whatever let’s just do it: Tate’s scouting profile looks a lot like Marcus Stroman’s coming out of Duke. The differences (mechanics aren’t similar at all [man, I loved Stroman’s] and Tate has a few inches on Stroman) are real, but the ties that bind the two are far more interesting. Both Tate and Stroman were primarily relievers through two years of college (Stroman made 13 starts out of his 34 games), both are/were great athletes with repeatable deliveries (even if you don’t love Tate’s, as I don’t, he is athletic enough to keep it up), and both clearly had the stuff to start once you looked past some of the superficial “he’s a reliever!” concerns (big fastballs, plus hard sliders/cutters, and underdeveloped changeups with big upside). I think it’s pretty cool that we’ve come far enough in just a few short years to better appreciate what a slightly non-conventional pitcher can do, and Tate should have no problem blowing past Stroman’s draft ceiling (22nd overall pick) this June. It helps that Tate has a little more size — Stroman being 5’9″ took the short righthander thing to a wonderful extreme — and a few additional contemporary examples of young big leaguers (Yordano Ventura) and minor league stars (Luis Severino) that helped crack the shorty righty glass ceiling. Speaking of Severino, I don’t know if that’s a terrible comparison for Tate, either. I prefer Stroman, but Severino, who dazzled me the two different times I got to see him this summer (93-96 FB, 98 peak; cartoonish mid-80s breaking ball, and a more advanced CU than most pitchers his age), isn’t a terrible name to be associated with.
I’d rather not use up all my words on Tate again because there are a ton of other quality arms in the Big West to get to, but suffice it to say that the fireballing righty from Santa Barbara is really, really good and all but a lock for the top ten of this year’s draft barring injury.
What a pleasant surprise it was to find Cal State Fullerton JR RHP Thomas Eshelman has a lot more fans among pro guys than I would have originally guessed. I’ve written about the different perception of college writers versus draft writers a few times over the years, and Eshelman seemed like a perfect case study as a dominant college starter unlikely to keep up his awesome results as a pro because of a lack of overpowering stuff. Thankfully, the majority of the smart people I asked about Eshelman couldn’t have been more enthusiastic about his professional future. Obviously expectations contextualize their enthusiasm – he’s not a first round prospect and not a future big league ace, two simple realities that ought to go without saying but might come as a surprise to the staunchest college only baseball fans – so we’re talking more about the better than expected chance that he’ll continue to stay in a rotation in the pros with the possibility of him reaching a mid- to back-end rotation starter status before long. Some draft guys dismiss Eshelman altogether as a future pro, but I don’t get why his strengths (plus-plus command, plus-plus control, and a variety of offspeed pitches designed to keep batters as off-balanced as a weeble who not only wobbles but has in fact fallen down) won’t translate to the pro game. Even his fastball velocity, his biggest perceived weakness coming into the season, has firmed up from the mid-80s (touching 90) to closer to the upper-80s (93 peak). That’s fast enough for me, especially when you consider his pinpoint command of the pitch and significant deception in his delivery. The deception in his motion in addition to the overall package and future pro outlook all bring to mind Ben Lively, a fourth round pick in 2013. That seems like a reasonable expectation for Eshelman at this point. Other big league names that I’ve heard Eshelman’s ceiling compared to include Aaron Harang, Brandon McCarthy, Tanner Roark, and Phil Hughes.
Eshelman’s teammate JR RHP Justin Garza is another unconventional pitching prospect with big league rotation stalwart upside. Unlike Eshelman, Garza’s got the classic stuff of a power pitcher: 90-94 FB (96 peak), above-average to plus 79-86 cut-SL, and an average 76-82 changeup that flashes better. It’s Garza’s slight 5-11, 165 pound frame that make him a bit of an anomaly. It’s imperfect as a comp, but I view Garza almost as a harder throwing version of former Fullerton ace Tyler Pill*, a fourth round pick in 2011. In terms of ceiling, I’d stay in California and use former USC star and current Padres pitcher, Ian Kennedy.
*There are 36 pitchers ahead of Pill on Baseball America’s Mets depth chart and 54 total prospects ahead of him at Fangraphs. I’m not sitting here projecting stardom for the guy, but too often floor is not valued nearly enough by the experts. I understand that prospect guys garner more acclaim for hitting on top names and being the first to identify a high-upside low-minors player that make good, but let’s give a little love for the cheap, useful, and competent role players and maybe/maybe not fifth starters. Going for the home run is more fun – heck, I do it all the time and would go to bat for upside over certainty if forced to choose – but ML-ready talent that can be used to patch holes on rosters right now are grossly undervalued on expert lists. Maybe this is just the native Philadelphian in me, but I’d kill for a guy with a solid draft pedigree, decent stuff, and consistently stellar minor league success like Tyler Pill right now on the Phillies roster.
JR LHP Justin Jacome, currently better known as Tate’s rotation-mate with UC Santa Barbara, deserves more draft love than he’s currently getting. Like Eshelman, he won’t overwhelm you with his velocity (85-90 FB, 92 peak) but the confidence he has in all five pitches (cutter, CB, CU, SL) makes it work. His size, athleticism, command, and changeup (my favorite of his secondaries) are all points in his favor. Next time anybody takes me too seriously, just remember that I had UC Santa Barbara JR RHP Dylan Hecht on my 2015 prospect to know list last year instead of Tate. I was buying him as the better bet to make the conversion to the rotation for reasons I don’t even remember. Now I can’t even find the guy on a roster. Anybody have any insight there? Ten minutes of Googling has me with more questions than answers.
Cal State Northridge JR RHP Calvin Copping is intriguing because of a fastball with more coming (86-92 now), occasional plus slider, and a changeup with promise. Cal State Fullerton SR LHP Tyler Peitzmeier is one of the country’s best relievers with the stuff (87-90 FB, plus CU) and deception to keep missing bats as a pro. UC Davis rJR RHP Max Cordy is a power arm with a plus fastball and not so plus control. As a high-profile transfer from Tennessee, UC Irvine JR RHP Matt Esparza was a name to watch coming into the season. He’s delivered so far as he’s ably mixed a solid fastball (88-93), plus hard splitter/slider thing, and flashed a truer breaking ball (upper-70s curve) with above-average upside.
The pitching in the Big West is deep and impressive, but what about the prospects tasked with hitting off these guys? The second base Big West prospect group for 2015 is a lot of fun. I could see up to a half-dozen future professional second basemen coming out of here. The obvious headliner is Cal Poly JR 2B/OF Mark Mathias. Mathias is a famous enough prospect by now that I probably don’t have to even mention this, but, man, can he hit. Mathias and hitter are basically synonymous at this point. He’s one of only two players in this year’s college class that I can put down plus for his hit tool and walk away feeling totally confident. A search of “plus hit” in my 130,000+ Word document produces only nine matches. Among them are UCLA JR OF Ty Moore, Mathias’s plus hit tool peer, and Notre Dame SO 2B/3B Cavan Biggio (a reasonable comp as a hitter for Mathias), as well as a few 2015 draft-eligible players I noted as having a chance for a plus hit tool in Cincinnati JR 2B/OF Ian Happ and Mississippi State rSO OF Jacob Robson. Other players in the mix for best hit tool in this class include obvious candidates like Arizona JR SS Kevin Newman, Vanderbilt JR SS Dansby Swanson, LSU JR 2B/SS Alex Bregman, and Florida State JR OF DJ Stewart. Dark horses I like more than others – and, again, we’re talking straight hit tool here only – are Auburn JR OF/2B Jordan Ebert and Ohio SR 1B Jake Madsen.
Some players engender more comps than others and for whatever reason Mathias is one of those guys. Baseball America has thrown out David Bell and Sam Travis as comparisons in the past. I’ve heard Placido Polanco, Howie Kendrick, and, my personal favorite (and, though he’s never told me why, one of my dad’s all-time favorite players) Mark Loretta.
UC Davis rSR 2B/OF Tino Lipson is a versatile defender (who happens to be really good at second) with plus speed and a patient approach. The buzz on Long Beach State rJR 2B Zach Domingues coming into the season shocked me in a good way. His bat has been slow to warm up so far this year, though he’s found a way to control the strike zone, one of the main selling parts of his game, despite his struggles. Cal State Fullerton JR 2B/SS Jake Jefferies is a quality all-around player who could see his stock rise if teams feel confident about his glove being able to hang at shortstop in small doses. Hawaii SR 2B Stephen Ventimilia isn’t big, but he’s a fantastic runner and athlete with a serious knack for getting on base.
As if this class needed another shortstop with the upside to one day start in the big leagues, here comes wildly underrated Cal Poly SS Peter Van Gansen and his steady glove, strong arm, and patient approach. He’s on the thin line between future utility player and potential regular right now, though his increased pop in 2015 could convince some teams he’ll hit enough to hold his own at the bottom of a lineup. I’m admittedly higher on him than most, but he checks enough of the boxes that teams like in potential backup infielders that I think he’ll wind up a valuable draft asset.
Cal Poly JR C Brian Mundell just keeps chugging along as one of the west coast’s most underrated catching prospects. All he’s done is produce since his first day on campus. I have him as a potential high-level backup catcher with the upside of starting in the big leagues with continued development. That’s aggressive, but, much like Van Gansen, I just like the way he plays the game.
UC Davis JR C Cameron Olson hasn’t been able to put it all together quite yet, but if he does then it’ll be worth the wait. His plus raw power and plus arm strength combination is what evaluators dream about. On the other end of the spectrum is the reliable yet unexciting profile of UC Irvine rSR C Jerry McClanahan. The veteran Anteater’s patient approach at the plate is my kind of prospect, but his lack of power and advanced age make him more organizational depth than future big league backup. Of course, the former can become the latter in certain cases, and there are all kinds of unseen advantages in bringing in quality workers like McClanahan to work with your minor league pitchers. I’d still have to take the upside play in Olson over the steady yet limited McClanahan, but I could understand why a team would want to use a late pick on a catcher that would put his pitchers first.
I’ve always been fond of Cal State Northridge rJR OF Spencer O’Neil’s physical ability, but his approach at the plate needs to change in a hurry if he’s to have the kind of pro future his raw talent suggests. UC Santa Barbara JR OF/1B Dalton Kelly has similar issues as a hitter, though he’s a really interesting athlete with serious speed and defensive tools varied enough to play both 1B and CF at a high level.
BONUS CONTENT
Back when I guess I thought I would physically be able to cover every team in college baseball I began working on previews for a few Big West schools. Since they’d never see the light of day otherwise, why not rescue these unfinished drafts from my Gmail archives with the adoring public? Keep in mind that these were all written back in December, so blame any stupidity you read on that fact and that fact alone.
Long Beach State
SO SS Garrett Hampson’s time under the draft microscope is still a year away, but that won’t stop scouts from honing in on him this spring. Part of that is because he’s a huge draw on his own (crazy speed, great athlete, all the defensive upside you could ask for) and part of that is because he’s one of the very few draws on the roster. That’s not to say that players won’t emerge or that I’m missing quality prospects hiding in plain sight, but I’m not sure there’s a sure-fire 2015 draft prospect on this roster. JR 3B Zack Rivera showed promise in 2013, but his production took a dive in a small sample last year. JR C Eric Hutting has professional backup catcher traits (arm, glove, athleticism), but, like Rivera, took too big a step back with the bat last year for me to be comfortable calling him a 2015 draft lock. rSR RHP Kyle Friedrichs, a Tommy John surgery survivor back in 2013, has always had nice peripherals and solid stuff. He’s probably my favorite of the upperclass pitching crop, but it’s an admittedly thin group at the moment.
Hawaii
There’s some nice talent scattered across the Hawaii lineup. You can point to just about any regular position player and identify a skill or tool that stands out enough to get on a follow list. There’s not much power on the roster, so scouts will key on players that could keep advancing levels by way of their speed, defense, and athleticism. The two players that best embody those physical attributes are SR OF Keao Aliviado and SR 2B Stephen Ventimilia. Both seniors are undersized (5-7ish, 160ish pounds) grinders with athleticism to spare. Ventimilia is the better runner and Aliviado has flashed a tiny bit more functional power, but those are two of the few separating characteristics here. Each guy has hit well in a wood bat league, each guy has walked as much as he’s struck out (more or less in Aliviado’s case), and each guy should have no problem hanging at an up-the-middle defensive position. Neither player profiles as anything close to a starter, but both should be late-round senior signs and strong organizational players with the kind of makeup that would give an organizational a net gain just by being around other young players.
Hawaii’s pitching looks decent enough that it’s not crazy to think a pitcher or two could get selected off the roster in June. I’m curious to see what JR RHP Tyler Brashears can do, hopeful that SR RHP Eric Gleese can put it all together in his last year, and fascinating to see what rSR LHP Jarrett Arakawa has left in the tank. Arakawa, a fifth-year senior who’s strong freshman season (7.43 K/9) got him early attention, has survived a missed season (2013) after having a procedure done on his labrum. What he lacks in stuff post-injury he makes up for in guile on the mound. His case may unfortunately wind up as a “what if” rather than a happy draft day ending, but just having the opportunity to convince scouts he’s got what it takes to pitch professionally one last time is a success for Arakawa at this point.
Cal State Northridge
I still have the quote saved from when rJR OF Spencer O’Neil left Oregon after the 2013 season: he “decided to pursue other opportunities” and that was that. Well he’s back playing D1 ball this year and I’m damn pleased to see it. There’s the big question as to whether his approach will remain a hindrance to his overall game, especially after a year at junior college that showed little to no gains from his freshman season at Oregon (from 6 BB and 32 K at Oregon to 8 BB and 30 K at Central Arizona). I liken him to a power pitcher capable of hitting the mid-90s with a darting fastball that he has no idea how to harness effectively. The raw talent is obvious, but bridging the gap from prospect to player is going to take a lot more work than your typical draftable college bat.
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Hitting
- Cal Poly JR 2B/OF Mark Mathias
- Cal Poly JR SS Peter Van Gansen
- UC Davis rSR 2B/OF Tino Lipson
- Long Beach State rJR 2B Zach Domingues
- Cal Poly JR C Brian Mundell
- Cal State Northridge rJR OF Spencer O’Neil
- UC Santa Barbara JR OF/1B Dalton Kelly
- Cal State Fullerton JR 2B/SS Jake Jefferies
- UC Davis JR C Cameron Olson
- Hawaii SR OF Keao Aliviado
- Cal State Fullerton JR 1B Tanner Pinkston
- Cal Poly SR OF Zack Zehner
- UC Davis rSR 1B/3B Nick Lynch
- Hawaii SR 2B Stephen Ventimilia
- UC Irvine rSR C Jerry McClanahan
- UC Riverside SR 2B/OF Joe Chavez
- UC Santa Barbara SR OF Cameron Newell
- Cal State Northridge SR C Nick Murphy
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching
- UC Santa Barbara JR RHP Dillon Tate
- Cal State Fullerton JR RHP Thomas Eshelman
- Cal State Fullerton JR RHP Justin Garza
- UC Santa Barbara JR LHP Justin Jacome
- Cal State Northridge JR RHP Calvin Copping
- UC Santa Barbara JR RHP Dylan Hecht
- Cal State Northridge rSR RHP Kyle Ferramola
- Hawaii JR RHP Tyler Brashears
- Cal State Fullerton SR LHP Tyler Peitzmeier
- UC Davis rJR RHP Max Cordy
- UC Santa Barbara JR RHP Connor Baits
- Cal State Fullerton SR RHP Willie Kuhl
- Cal State Northridge SR LHP Jerry Keel
- UC Irvine JR RHP Matt Esparza
- UC Santa Barbara JR RHP Trevor Bettencourt
- UC Santa Barbara JR RHP James Carter
- UC Riverside JR RHP Keaton Leach
- Cal Poly SR LHP Taylor Chris
- Hawaii JR RHP LJ Brewster
- Cal Poly JR RHP Casey Bloomquist
- UC Santa Barbara JR RHP Kenny Chapman
- Hawaii SR RHP Eric Gleese
- UC Riverside SR LHP Kevin Sprague
- UC Santa Barbara JR RHP/3B Robby Nesovic
- Hawaii rSR LHP Jarrett Arakawa
- Hawaii JR RHP Josh Pigg
- Cal State Northridge JR RHP Rayne Raven
Mountain West Conference 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team
Fresno State JR C Taylor Ward
Nevada SR 1B Austin Byler
New Mexico JR 2B Sam Haggerty
New Mexico JR SS Dalton Bowers
San Diego State JR 3B Ty France
San Diego State SR OF Steven Pallares
Fresno State JR OF Brody Russell
New Mexico SR OF Ryan Padilla
San Diego State JR RHP Bubba Derby
UNLV JR LHP Brayden Torres
Fresno State SR RHP Garrett Mundell
Nevada JR RHP Michael Fain
Nevada JR RHP Sam Held
Sometimes I get so wrapped up into doing things for the site that I forget that there is a great big baseball world outside my tiny corner of the internet. As such, I’m way behind on checking in on a lot of the mainstream draft coverage that has been put out since the college season in February. Help me out here: Fresno State JR C Taylor Ward is a first round pick, right? People have caught on to that? He’s pretty much Max Pentecost without the Twitter approved cool guy name. If Pentecost could go eleventh overall, then surely Ward can find a fit in the first day, right? He’s a really good athlete who moves exceptionally well behind the plate. His arm is an absolute howitzer with easy to spot plus to plus-plus raw strength. Offensively he does enough of everything – average or a tick below speed underway, about the same raw power, and a disciplined approach that consistently puts him in good hitter’s counts – to profile as a well above-average regular when both sides of his game are considered.
“The best true catcher is probably Pentecost,” a club executive said. “He’s going in the first round for sure. He doesn’t have a lot of power, it’s more alley and extra-base hits than pure power, but he’s a good hitter, a good athlete and he can run. He can throw and he will get better as a receiver. I think it’s a solid overall player at a tough position to find.”
Sub out Pentecost’s name for Ward’s and you’re all set. His closest competitors for top college catcher in this class (pre-season) for me have all slipped enough that I think there’s real separation between Ward and everybody else. Shaun Chase (Oregon) still has the prodigious raw power that will keep him employed for years to come, but the approach has shown little to no signs of improving. My former top guy, Ian Rice (Houston), has been up and down (to put it kindly) in his first season of D1 baseball. Austin Rei (Washington) seemed poised to have a breakout season and challenge Ward for the top spot, but a torn thumb ligament stalled his season after only 17 at bats. There’s still a question as to whether or not he’ll be back before the end of the season. I could see a scenario where a team would prefer Rei, who I still think goes higher than anybody thinks because of his pitch-framing abilities alone, but the injury obviously makes him one of the draft’s greatest unknowns heading into June.
I don’t actually know where Ward will go in the draft and without having my entire board lined up just yet it is premature to say he’s a no-doubt first round pick for me personally. I do find it hard to imagine that a player with his upside will fall past the first forty picks or so into the second round. This kind of logic doesn’t always hold because it takes but one team to select a player, but if Pentecost, who, I liked more than loved as a prospect, went off the board at eleven last year then I don’t see why Ward would fall multiple rounds past that in what many (not me, but still) consider to be a weaker draft.
Last March I wrote very briefly about Nevada SR 1B/3B Austin Byler and his promising future. Back then I had him ranked seventh out of all draft-eligible college first basemen behind a pretty damn good list of bats. Kyle Schwarber, Casey Gillaspie, Sam Travis, JD Davis, AJ Reed, and Kevin Cron were the only players I had above him then. Coming into this year I had him only behind Boston College 1B/OF Chris Shaw in terms of straight college first base prospects and neck and neck with Central Florida 1B/OF James Vasquez. I haven’t updated those rankings in a while, but I think Byler is comfortably in the top five first base prospect range. Here’s the blurb on Byler from last March…
Slow start notwithstanding, Byler’s power is legit and his approach to hitting, while not reflected just yet in terms of BB/K ratios, is well-suited for professional ball.
Not much has changed in his scouting profile, though he’s turned into even more of a three-true-outcomes monster in 2015. I’ve asked around on Byler and gotten some pretty interesting feedback. On the high end he’s gotten comparisons to Mark Reynolds and Russell Branyan. More to the point, he’s viewed as a hitter who will strike out a ton, walk his fair share, and swat dingers at an impressive clip. I also got a Preston Wilson comparison (hitter only, obviously) that I enjoyed as much for the nostalgia as the utility. A more cautionary comparison is the one that likened him to former first round pick Tyler Colvin. I personally find the continuum from a lefthanded Reynolds (useful power source that can be quite valuable when deployed properly) to Colvin (4A slugger with flashes of promise, but more of an up-and-down bench bat) particularly useful.
As far as a draft prospect comparison, I think Byler could wind up going off the board around the same range as another senior sign slugger from yesteryear (way, way back in 2012), Preston Tucker. Byler could get a bit of a boost because power is in even higher demand now than just three years ago. He could also beat that seven round projection because he’s a more conventionally pleasing looking player for scouts who might worry as much about aesthetics than results. I like the bat enough that I think you start thinking seriously about him somewhere between rounds three and five.
All of the middle infielders from New Mexico that I like (JR 2B/SS Sam Haggerty, JR SS/2B Dalton Bowers, and JR SS Jared Holley) have gotten off to slow starts so far. The consistently positive things I’ve heard about Bowers (in general) and Holley (his plus glove specifically) keep my appreciation for the group alive, but a little more pop out of the trio would make me feel a bit better. San Diego State JR 3B Ty France has one of the draft’s most underrated bats, especially when his natural feel for hitting and functional strength (and subsequent power) are considered. Guys who really get excited about watching a young player swing at bat well come away raving about what France can do at the plate. I haven’t seen enough of him to get that feeling (also: I’m not a scout), but hearing it as often as I have from people who have been around the game forever definitely gets my attention.
The outfield group in the MWC this year is more about depth than high-end talent. There are a lot of maybe/maybe not draftable players, but no sure things. My favorite of the bunch is San Diego State SR OF/RHP Steven Pallares. It’s taken some time for Pallares to get going – it’s the end of March as I write this and he’s already tied his career high in AB – but now that he’s hitting full-time he’s, well, hitting full-time. His arm is both strong and accurate, he’s an above-average runner, and the strides he’s made at the plate are undeniably encouraging.
Below you’ll find my unedited (with one exception) pre-season list of Mountain West 2015 MLB Draft pitching prospects. The only tweak I made was in moving up San Diego State JR RHP Bubba Derby from third to first; all other players are exactly where I put them before the season began. I make special note of that now because this list has not held up well at all. It could be that I have no idea what I’m talking about or that the MWC has an especially volatile group of arms this year or that maybe the elevation or atmospheric conditions or something altogether unexplainable inherent to this conference makes predicting pitching more of a guessing game than even I, a guesser by nature (“Baseball Guesser” should go on my nonexistent business card because, let’s face it, that’s all we’re really doing here), am used to. All I know is that I’m more confused about these pitchers now more than ever.
We know Derby is good, though even with his awesome numbers (12.5 K/9) we’re still not quite sure how good he really is. The fact that he can throw two above-average breaking balls to complement his 88-92 (94 peak) fastball is obviously a very good thing. His 5-11, 185 pound frame, however, could give evaluators some pause when projecting him to carry a full starter’s workload in the big leagues one day. I don’t share those concerns, but I get it. I’d personally like to see or hear more about a usable changeup before going all-in on him as a potential average or better big league starter, but the pieces are there. Behind Derby are two other favorites that don’t get much national acclaim. Fresno State SR RHP Garrett Mundell is extension personified. It’s as if he’s handing the ball off to the catcher. I like that. UNLV JR LHP Brayden Torres has pitched out of the bullpen for the Runnin’ Rebels, but I think he has the depth of stuff, control, and build to start professionally.
Little to nothing has gone right with Nevada’s top draft-eligible pitching prospects this season. JR RHP Michael Fain has an electric arm capable of mid-90s heat and a hard low-80s slider, but his college career has been plagued by inconsistency. He’s got the long, lean frame (6-6, 185) to dream on, so no reason to hop off the bandwagon altogether. His teammate JR RHP Sam Held is another good athlete with a strong fastball (94 peak) and plenty of projection left who hasn’t performed as hoped so far this season.
Finally, since we’re on the subject of Nevada, how about JR 1B/OF Ryan Howell? He’s a junior college transfer (Chabot College) that I have little to no information on, but his numbers leapt off the page when doing a quick check of the conference’s strongest early performers: .400/.485/.790 in 105 AB is no joke. That’s one year after wrecking juco ball to the tune of .292/.464/.571 with 35 BB/25 K in 154 AB. The Oregon State transfer is finally healthy after the long recovery from a torn labrum. He’s played both first and in the outfield in the past, but is manning second for the Wolfpack in 2015 in deference to one of college ball’s most stacked set of corner prospects (Byler at first with Kewby Myer and Trenton Brooks in the outfield corners). I’m not sure how real this hot start is or how he’s holding up at second, but I’m motivated to know more.
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Hitting
- Fresno State JR C Taylor Ward
- Nevada SR 1B/3B Austin Byler
- San Diego State JR 3B Ty France
- Nevada SR 1B/LHP Kewby Meyer
- New Mexico JR 2B/SS Sam Haggerty
- San Diego State SR OF/RHP Steven Pallares
- Fresno State JR OF/SS Brody Russell
- New Mexico SR OF/1B Ryan Padilla
- UNLV JR OF/3B Joey Armstrong
- New Mexico JR OF Aaron Siple
- UNLV SR C/OF Erik VanMeetren
- San Jose State JR 2B Ozzy Braff
- San Diego State rSO C/RHP CJ Saylor
- San Diego State SR 3B/1B Ryan Muno
- New Mexico JR SS/2B Dalton Bowers
- New Mexico JR SS Jared Holley
- San Jose State SR OF Andre Mercurio
- Nevada SR SS Kyle Hunt
- San Diego State rJR OF/C Seby Zavala
- Nevada SR C Jordan Devencenzi
- San Diego State rJR OF Spencer Thornton
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching
- San Diego State JR RHP Bubba Derby
- UNLV JR LHP Brayden Torres
- Fresno State SR RHP Garrett Mundell
- Nevada JR RHP Michael Fain
- Nevada JR RHP Sam Held
- Nevada SR LHP Tyler Wells
- New Mexico rJR LHP Toller Boardman
- UNLV JR RHP Kenny Oakley
- New Mexico JR RHP/SS Drew Bridges
- San Diego State JR RHP Dalton Douty
- New Mexico rJR LHP Alex Estrella
- UNLV rJR LHP Zak Qualls
- UNLV rJR RHP Zack Hartman
- San Diego State JR RHP Mark Seyler
- New Mexico JR RHP Taylor Duree
- Nevada JR RHP Adam Whitt
- UNLV JR RHP/1B Bryan Bonnell
- New Mexico rJR RHP Victor Sanchez
- San Jose State SR RHP/OF Kalei Contrades
- New Mexico JR RHP Mike Gould
- Air Force SR RHP Ben Yokley
- UNLV SR RHP Joey Lauria
- New Mexico SR RHP Jake Cole
Missouri Valley Conference 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team
Dallas Baptist rJR C Daniel Salters
Missouri State JR 1B Spencer Johnson
Missouri State SR 2B Eric Cheray
Bradley JR SS Tyler Leffler
Wichita State JR 3B Chase Rader
Missouri State JR OF Tate Matheny
Dallas Baptist JR OF Daniel Sweet
Evansville rSR OF Kevin Kaczmarski
Missouri State JR RHP Jon Harris
Dallas Baptist JR RHP Brandon Koch
Dallas Baptist JR RHP Joseph Shaw
Missouri State JR LHP Matt Hall
Dallas Baptist JR RHP Drew Smith
The rise of many of this class’s toolsier players putting it together, especially among the outfield group, has taken some of the shine off of the more solid than spectacular types like Missouri State JR OF Tate Matheny. Matheny still looks like a good bet to fulfill his destiny as a fourth outfielder who won’t kill you in a starting role at times (especially if deployed properly), but teams in the market for upside plays will likely look elsewhere. Such is the life of a guy with no tool worse than average, but no carrying tool either.
I’ve always lumped Matheny together with Cameron Gibson of Michigan State for reasons I’ve never actually stopped and thought about. It probably has something do with their respective big league bloodlines, Midwestern roots (I don’t actually think of Michigan as being particularly Midwestern, but I’m an East Coast jerk so everything that’s not an hour drive from the ocean is Middle America to me), similar birthdays (Matheny is just three days older), similar summer paths (Northwoods in 2013, Cape in 2014), and the fact they both play for a MSU. The comp doesn’t hold up when you actually taken into account the stuff we’re supposed to care about on a baseball draft website (Gibson is a lefthanded hitter with more speed, Matheny is a righty bat who has flashed more pop), but the brain works in mysterious ways.
I’m not sure why Dallas Baptist JR OF Daniel Sweet hasn’t been in the lineup — I’m assuming injury, but two minutes of Google reveal nothing — but I’m hoping whatever it is he’ll be back at it soon. A fairly strong argument can be made for Sweet over Matheny based largely on the difference between Sweet’s consistently above-average tools (raw power, speed, range, arm) and Matheny’s average-ish across the board skill set. Matheny is the safer of the two, having proved he could produce at a high-level over his past three college seasons, but Sweet’s junior college track record is darn impressive in its own right. His two years at Polk State weren’t bad…
.307/.436/.419 – 29 BB/29 K – 30/37 SB – 179 AB
.411/.525/.565 – 42 BB/44 K – 30/33 SB – 209 AB
So between that and his silly athleticism, you see why he’s a highly regarded prospect, right? I have less of a clue than normal about where the industry views Sweet as a prospect, but I’m fairly sure I’ll wind up having him far above anybody else this June. I’m cool with that. Sweet is good.
I like Evansville rSR OF Kevin Kaczmarski a lot. He’s always been one of those guys that smart people have told me had an outstanding approach at the plate. He could hit in AA right now, they said. His ability to track the ball out of the pitcher’s hand is legendary around campus, they said. His plate discipline is what sets him apart, they said. I took all that in, but the cognitive dissonance when hearing that and looking at his BB/K numbers (never bad, but never particularly good, either) was palpable. Keeping in mind that a) it’s early yet, and b) Kaczmarski is a redshirt senior and older than the vast majority of his competition, the smart people who kept talking up his approach (13 BB/6 K in 64 AB) look really good. He’s always been able to hit, so the gains in plate discipline are a welcomed sight. His impressive gap power and above-average speed round out his offensive game nicely. It’ll be most interesting to me to see how pro teams view his range in the outfield. I’ve heard from those who think he’s a lock to play center at the next level. The majority, however, have told me that he’s not the kind of player you’d want out there over a full season and that an outfield corner, where he’d be quite good, is his most likely future home. Since his drafting team would probably select him with a backup future as their most realistic best case scenario for him in mind, I’d think just being able to hang in center without killing you for short stretches will be enough.
I had Dallas Baptist teammates rJR C/OF Daniel Salters and JR OF Daniel Sweet as the 24th and 25th ranked college hitters in the country before the season. We covered Sweet already, so let’s get into Salters. Simply put, things have not gone well for the divisive Patriot in 2015. It’s only been 76 at bats and his BB/K numbers remain encouraging (20/22), but it’s hard to put a happy face on a .171/.364/.250 start. Slow start or not, I still believe in the athletic, powerful (plus raw for me, others have it closer to average) backstop with tremendous arm strength. I’ve heard some smart people suggest it could be time to move him from out behind the plate to an outfield corner in order to jumpstart his bat, but I’m not there yet. I think he can catch as a pro, and I think he can hit enough to be an above-average starter in the big leagues. If vouching for a guy hitting .171 just two months away from the draft like that doesn’t show you I believe in his ability, then nothing will.
Illinois State rJR C/3B Paul DeJong is the gift that keeps giving to college ball. Few players can match his uniqueness as a hitter who flat mashes (.408/.491/.714 in 98 AB this year so far) while being defensively versatile enough to play every infield position but short. Unsurprisingly, I think the smartest play for his future is to keep trying to develop him as a catcher as long as possible. He’s got the athleticism, instincts, and hands for it, so making it work should be the top priority for his drafting team. There might be enough to him as a hitter to play elsewhere in a regular role, but his best fit professionally is as a super-utility player that floats mostly between second, third, and catcher.
The loss of Missouri State SR 2B/SS Eric Cheray to a fractured left ankle is one of this season’s biggest bummers from a draft prospective. He’ll still get his shot in pro ball, but won’t get to do so on the heels of what was starting off as a monster senior season (.474/.577/.737 with 6 BB/2 K in 19 AB). I honestly believe he could have hit his way into the draft’s top five rounds or so. Lost season or not, he’s still one of my favorite straight bats in the country. The fact that he can play a variety of positions – some think he’d take really well if he returns to catching full-time – only makes him a more fascinating prospect to me. There are obvious parallels between Cheray’s game and what Paul DeJong can do; I’ll take Cheray’s plus approach over DeJong’s power upside, but it’s a close call.
Bradley rJR 2B Chris Godinez is a plus runner with the chance to play well enough on the left side of the infield to be a potential utility infielder professionally. His double-play partner, JR SS Tyler Leffler, appeared poised for a big draft season (strong arm, improved glove, intriguing bat) but has stumbled some out of the gate. Evansville SR 2B Brett Synek controls the strike zone about as well as any player in the country.
Pitcher with projection left and a chance to be an above-average big league starter or pitcher who is what he is but what he is happens to be a ready-made high-leverage big league reliever with a mid-90s fastball (98 peak) and a wipeout slider that touches 90? Or, in other words, Missouri State JR RHP Jon Harris or Dallas Baptist JR RHP Brandon Koch? You can’t really go wrong either way, but, as always, I lean towards the future starter all else otherwise being close to equal. Harris throws four pitches for strikes (88-93 FB, 95 peak; above-average upper-70s CB; plus mid-80s SL; sinking CU) with the frame to add a bit more velocity as he fills out. He’s also pulled off the trick of being a reliable starter at Missouri State since day one while also getting slowly but surely more effective along the way. Meanwhile, all Koch is doing is striking out just under 19 batters per nine innings (18.98 as I write this). There are a lot of good, quick-moving relievers in college baseball – there always are – but Koch might be the best of the bunch when it’s all said and done.
Both Harris and Koch come from loaded pitching staffs chock full of potential pro arms. Joining Koch on the Dallas Baptist staff is JR RHP Joseph Shaw, a fastball-reliant (hard to blame him when he sits 90-95, hits 98) potential starting pitcher at the next level with the kind of workhorse frame that some teams prioritize with their pitching targets. There’s also JR RHP Drew Smith, the third Patriot that I have as capable of touching 98 (lives 90-96). Smith also mixes in an average or better mid-70s curve, plus a low-80s changeup and a slider of a similar speed. He’s particularly intriguing to me because he’s been exclusively a reliever this season despite possessing a repertoire capable of going through a lineup more than once. JR RHP Cory Taylor only throws as hard as 94 MPH (slacker), so he’ll have to make up for it with his plus slider. He’s had problems throwing strikes in the past, but seems to have smoothed things out mechanically this year which has in turn improved his control. Like Shaw, Taylor is a big boy (6-2, 250) and a rather intimidating presence on the mound. JR RHP Chance Adams (low-90s FB, great numbers) and SR RHP Jay Calhoun (88-91 FB with plus movement, SL flashes plus) are both also draftable talents. Throw in rSO LHP Colin Poche, a really talented arm to follow next year as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and that’s one incredible staff.
Missouri State isn’t quite as stacked in terms of pro prospects, but Harris’s running mate in the rotation, JR LHP Matt Hall, lines up with almost any other second tier arm in the conference. It’s a fairly typical lefty profile (86-90 FB, average or better CB and CU, good command) with enough of the extra stuff (pitchability, smarts, results) to warrant top ten round consideration.
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Hitting
- Missouri State JR OF Tate Matheny
- Dallas Baptist JR OF Daniel Sweet
- Dallas Baptist rJR C/OF Daniel Salters
- Missouri State SR 2B/SS Eric Cheray
- Illinois State rJR C/3B Paul DeJong
- Bradley JR SS Tyler Leffler
- Evansville rSR OF Kevin Kaczmarski
- Bradley rJR 2B Chris Godinez
- Evansville SR 2B Brett Synek
- Wichita State JR 3B Chase Rader
- Wichita State JR 3B/RHP Willie Schwanke
- Evansville JR SS Shain Showers
- Illinois State JR OF Daniel Dwyer
- Illinois State JR OF Jack Czeszewski
- Missouri State JR 1B/OF Spencer Johnson
- Dallas Baptist SR 2B/SS Drew Turbin
- Dallas Baptist JR 1B/3B Trooper Reynolds
- Wichita State JR OF Daniel Kihle
- Indiana State SR OF Landon Curry
- Evansville JR 1B/OF Eric McKibban
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching
- Missouri State JR RHP Jon Harris
- Dallas Baptist JR RHP Brandon Koch
- Dallas Baptist JR RHP Joseph Shaw
- Missouri State JR LHP Matt Hall
- Dallas Baptist JR RHP Drew Smith
- Dallas Baptist JR RHP Cory Taylor
- Evansville JR RHP Brent Jurceka
- Wichita State rSO RHP Chase Williams
- Indiana State rJR LHP Greg Kuhlman
- Wichita State JR RHP Isaac Anderson
- Wichita State rJR RHP John Hayes
- Bradley JR RHP Eric Scheuermann
- Southern Illinois JR RHP Colten Selvey
- Illinois State JR LHP Will Headean
- Bradley rJR RHP Steve Adkins
- Dallas Baptist rSO LHP Colin Poche
- Bradley JR RHP/1B Elliot Aschbeck
- Dallas Baptist JR RHP Chance Adams
- Dallas Baptist SR RHP Jay Calhoun
- Illinois State JR LHP Jacob Hendren
- Southern Illinois JR RHP Alex Lesiak
- Southern Illinois SO RHP Kyle Pruemer
- Southern Illinois rSR LHP Aaron Hauge
- Southern Illinois rSO RHP Connor McFadden
- Wichita State JR RHP/OF Jon Ferendelli
West Coast Conference 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team
San Diego SR C Jesse Jenner
St. Mary’s SR 1B Collin Ferguson
Loyola Marymount SR 2B David Edwards
San Diego JR SS Kyle Holder
Santa Clara JR 3B Jose Vizcaino
Pacific JR OF Giovanni Brusa
Pacific SR OF Tyler Sullivan
San Francisco SR OF Derek Atkinson
Brigham Young JR RHP Kolton Mahoney
San Diego JR RHP/1B David Hill
Loyola Marymount rJR RHP Trevor Megill
Santa Clara JR RHP Reece Karalus
Pepperdine JR RHP Jackson McClelland
The talent in the West Coast Conference exemplifies the 2015 MLB Draft college class as well as any conference in the country; in many ways, it resembles is a microcosm for the rest of the class. There’s pitching because, no matter the year, there always seems to be pitching. Power is scarce, shortstops are plentiful, and talented yet unrefined talents face hugely important draft seasons.
The pitching in the WCC is predictably deep. The best arms in the conference don’t have quite the name recognition as the top pitchers in other conferences, but they will by June. If not, then they should. BYU JR RHP Kolton Mahoney leads the way with an honest four-pitch mix that includes a pair of above-average breaking balls (77-84 SL, 75-77 CB) that come close to running into each other but never quite get there. San Diego JR RHP/1B David Hill has bounced around some, but appears to be settled in with the Toreros. He has a similar fastball to Mahoney (88-94, though Mahoney commands it better) and very comparable offspeed stuff (above-average 75-79 CB, 80-85 cut-SL that flashes plus, intriguing new-ish split-CU that I’ve heard good things about). Santa Clara JR RHP Reece Karalus is a classic sinker/slider arm that adds a fun wrinkle to the archetype with his plus command and plus control. He’s too good to call a sleeper, but between the way he misses bats, gets ground balls (presumably…would love to dig up the numbers on him), and limits walks he could be a shockingly quick mover once he hits the pro game.
Two wild cards in the conference are Loyola Marymount rJR RHP Trevor Megill and Pepperdine JR RHP Jackson McClelland. Both pitchers have been far more wild than usual so far this season. Megill’s wild ways can be explained at least in part to his ongoing adjustment to being back on the mound after missing last season (TJ surgery). When he’s on, he brings a devastating array of power stuff (86-92 FB with good sink that can reach the mid-90s; plus cut-SL; imposing 6-8, 250 pound frame) to the table. McClelland’s wildness is more difficult to explain; in fact, since I haven’t seen him this year, I won’t even attempt to do so. For now I just chalk it up to another oddity in what has been a perplexing collegiate career to date. His stuff is more than enough to get college hitters out (90-95 FB, breaking ball with upside, usable change) and he’s a really good athlete throwing from a 6-5, 220 pound body, but he’s never consistently missed bats. Teams with a more forging view of underachieving college talent who might consider him a talented ball of clay to mold rather than a near-finished product seem more likely to give him a call this June than otherwise.
Safer bets include St. Mary’s SO RHP Cameron Neff and Loyola Marymount SR RHP Colin Welmon. Welmon has stepped his game up considerably this year as he’s changing the narrative on his scouting reports (slider with upside; changeup with promise) from potential to realized skills. You could do worse if in the market for a rare senior sign pitcher with a chance to one day crack a big league rotation than Welmon. Neff is built similarly, but is already able to harness a plus offspeed pitch (changeup) that keeps hitters off his just good enough fastball (88-92). I can’t remember the origin, but I have an AJ Griffin comp on him in my notes that I think is reasonable.
Remember the bit about power being scarce? This piece got delayed a few days because I kept stopping and starting the section on first basemen, the position most commonly associated with power. It’s not that I think that these breakdowns constitute the most entertaining daily reads on the internet, but I try to say at least one interesting thing for as many players as possible within each piece. There are four first basemen in the conference worth writing about, but for the life of me I can’t figure out anything fun to say about any of them. St. Mary’s SR 1B/LHP Collin Ferguson is a senior sign that figures to appeal to teams of all player development philosophies. He has shown consistent power (more or less), a relatively sound approach, and the athleticism, arm, and glove one needs to play a mean first base. Pepperdine JR 1B Brad Anderson’s calling card is his big raw power. San Francisco SR 1B/3B Brendan Hendriks’ strengths are his hit tool and defensive versatility (in addition to 1B and 3B he has also seen time at 2B). Portland rSR 1B/OF Turner Gill’s career hasn’t gone quite according to plan – he hit .348/.408/.500 and .341/.418/.508 in his first two seasons before being injured and ineffective the past two years – but he’s still a dangerous guess hitter who can put a charge into the ball when he guesses right.
Power may belong to first basemen above all other positions, but outfielders can also get in on the fun; unfortunately, outside of Pacific JR OF Giovanni Brusa (one of those talented yet unrefined talents from earlier) there’s not much in the way of thump to be found among WCC outfielders. The lack of pop is forgivable, but the weird lack of noteworthy draft-eligible outfielders in the conference is just plain bizarre. I’m sure I’m missing a few names, but even after checking and double-checking the only three serious outfield prospects heading into the season were Brusa, Pacific SR OF Tyler Sullivan, and San Francisco SR OF Derek Atkinson. An argument could be made that even including Sullivan and Atkinson is me being generous, as Brusa is currently the only WCC outfielder mentioned as a viable top ten round pick. I think that sells Sullivan, a pesky hitter who fits the backup outfielder with a leadoff mentality mold well, a bit short.
The appreciation for Brusa, however, is right on point. His above-average to plus raw power will keep him employed for a long time, especially combined with his elite athleticism and playable defensive tools (slightly below-average arm and foot speed, but overall should be fine in left field). Brusa going from good prospect to great prospect will take selling a team on his improved approach as a hitter; early returns are promising but a team that buys into his bat will do so knowing he’ll always be a player who swings and misses a lot. Whether or not he a) makes enough contact, and/or b) demonstrates enough plate discipline (strikeouts are easier to take when paired with an increased walk rate, like he’s shown so far this year) will ultimately decide his fate as a hitter and prospect. Before the season I would have been in the “think he’ll be drafted too high for my tastes, so let me just kick back and watch somebody else try to fix his approach” camp in terms of his draft value, but I’m slowly creeping towards “if he falls just a bit, I’d think about taking a shot on his upside over a few players with more certainty and less ceiling” territory. That’s a big step up for me, even if it doesn’t quite seem like it.
All the shortstops are great. That was the short note I wrote to myself designed to be a placeholder for the actual text to come, but now I’m thinking that’s what I should publish. (My notes on the outfielders: BRUSA. I’m not a great writer, clearly.) San Diego JR SS Kyle Holder is a special talent with the glove. He’s a fantastic athlete with everything you’d want to see out of big league defender: his range, hands, feet, instincts, arm, and touch are all exemplary. There might not be a lot of power to come, but he’s a smart, balanced hitter who works deep counts and battles in every at bat. With a very real clear strength and no obvious weaknesses, the well-rounded Holder could be a dark horse first day candidate. If you shoot for the moon with an all-upside first pick, then going for what could be a quick-moving rock solid big league shortstop with your second pick makes a lot of sense. The comps I have on Holder are among my favorite for any player in this year’s class: Mike Bordick, Walt Weiss, and Orlando Cabrera. I don’t know why, but that strikes me as a fun group of possible outcomes. Bordick and Weiss both feel fair in a plus glove, good command of the strike zone, enough power to keep pitchers’ honest kind of way. The Cabrera comparison is especially intriguing to me because I’ve used it already this year on a big glove, little bat prospect. Kennesaw State JR SS Kal Simmons, the recipient of said comp, is an interesting head-to-head prospect comparison for Holder. So far in 2015…
KS: .302/.391/.563 – 11 BB/12 K – 8/9 SB – 96 AB
KH: .353/.409/.412 – 7 BB/6 K – 4/6 SB – 85 AB
And in their college careers…
KS: .284/.345/.365 – 46 BB/74 K – 14/17 SB – 543 AB
KH: .315/.374/.406 – 22 BB/22 K – 11/15 SB – 276 AB
I think both players have big league regular upside – something I wouldn’t have said about Simmons prior to this season – but Holder gets the edge for me as the better all-around offensive threat. The real conclusion is this, however: all the shortstops are great.
Pacific JR SS/OF Brett Sullivan is an all-caps FAVORITE of mine who compares favorably to Holder in many areas of the game. The one great big obvious difference between the two is defensive projection. I’m obviously confident in Holder being a damn fine defensive shortstop in the big leagues, but I can’t say the same with much certainty about Sullivan. I mean this literally: I can’t say it with certainty because I straight up don’t know right now.
This is one of those cases where a position conference ranking doesn’t do the quality of depth at the position justice: three of the top four hitters in the conference are shortstops (four out of five if you think Santa Clara JR 3B/OF Jose Vizcaino sticks at SS). Loyola Marymount SO SS David Fletcher would be the top shortstop in many conferences across the country. He does a lot of the same things that Holder does well, especially on the defensive side. I’m a tiny less sure about his bat going forward, so consider that my admittedly thin rationale for having him behind both Holder and Sullivan. Being the third best shortstop behind those two guys is still a really, really good thing. He’s stung the ball so far this season, and I’ve heard from those who have seen him often that the improvements are real. Slowly but surely his ceiling has risen with some now willing to make the move from glove-first utility player to potential big league regular. I’m not quite there yet, but I get it. All the shortstops are great.
If you’re buying Vizcaino’s glove at shortstop then he might be the co-headliner up the middle with Holder. He’s easily one of the 2015 draft class’s best tools to skills transformation prospects. Like Brett Sullivan, I don’t quite have enough updated information on his defensive future to say one way or another where he’ll wind up as a pro. I have as more likely than not to switch over to third in the pros, but it’s a fluid situation. An admittedly far too generous Matt Carpenter comp (qualified with less advanced as a hitter and less athletic) for Gonzaga SR 3B Mitchell Gunsolus has stuck in my mind over the years. It’s obviously too much, but I still like Gunsolus power and patience blend. Even if he has to move to left field, as some have speculated, his bat looks strong enough to be a worthy senior sign all the same.
So we’ve covered the lack of power bats, the great shortstops, and some of the better tools to skills transformers. What’s left? Loyola Marymount SR 2B/SS David Edwards is a versatile enough defender to play just about any spot on the diamond. That versatility should serve him well professionally assuming he hits enough at the next level to fulfill his destiny as a big league super-sub. That versatility is also what gives him the slight edge over Pepperdine JR 2B Hutton Moyer, a good glove likely limited to second who can run and flash some power. Portland SR 2B/OF Caleb Whalen has long intrigued me as a plus runner who can play multiple spots with an underrated hit tool, but time is running out on him turning some of his raw ability into concrete skills.
I’ve liked what I’ve heard about San Diego SR C Jesse Jenner so far. The consensus on him seems to be there is enough power, arm strength, and athleticism to profile as a potential big league backup backstop. He stands out as the best of a thin group of WCC catchers.
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Hitting
- San Diego JR SS Kyle Holder
- Pacific JR OF Giovanni Brusa
- Pacific JR SS/OF Brett Sullivan
- Loyola Marymount SO SS David Fletcher
- Santa Clara JR 3B/OF Jose Vizcaino
- Gonzaga SR 3B Mitchell Gunsolus
- Brigham Young SO SS Tanner Chauncey
- San Diego SR SS/2B Austin Bailey
- Loyola Marymount SR 2B/SS David Edwards
- Pepperdine JR 2B Hutton Moyer
- San Diego rJR C Jesse Jenner
- Portland SR 2B/OF Caleb Whalen
- Pacific SR OF Tyler Sullivan
- San Francisco SR OF Derek Atkinson
- San Diego SR 3B Brandon DeFazio
- St. Mary’s SR 1B/LHP Collin Ferguson
- Pepperdine JR 1B Brad Anderson
- San Francisco SR 1B/3B Brendan Hendriks
- Portland rSR 1B/OF Turner Gill
- Gonzaga JR 2B/OF Caleb Wood
- San Francisco rJR 2B Michael Eaton
- Brigham Young SR C Jarrett Jarvis
- Santa Clara JR 3B Kyle Cortopassi
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching
- Brigham Young JR RHP Kolton Mahoney
- San Diego JR RHP/1B David Hill
- Loyola Marymount rJR RHP Trevor Megill
- Santa Clara JR RHP Reece Karalus
- Pepperdine JR RHP Jackson McClelland
- St. Mary’s SO RHP Cameron Neff
- Loyola Marymount SR RHP Colin Welmon
- Portland SR RHP Kody Watts
- San Diego JR LHP Jacob Hill
- San Diego JR LHP Troy Conyers
- San Diego rJR RHP Wes Judish
- Gonzaga JR RHP Andrew Sopko
- Brigham Young SO RHP Michael Rucker
- Loyola Marymount SR LHP/OF Sean Buckle
- San Diego JR LHP PJ Conlon
- Loyola Marymount JR RHP Michael Silva
- Gonzaga SR RHP/C Zach Abbruzza
- Gonzaga JR RHP Taylor Jones
- Santa Clara JR RHP Jake Steffens
- Santa Clara rSO RHP Steven Wilson
- Pacific SR RHP Michael Benson
- Brigham Young SR RHP Jeff Barker
- Pacific JR RHP Jake Jenkins
- Pacific SR RHP Michael Hager
- San Francisco SR LHP Christian Cecilio
- San Diego JR RHP Gary Cornish
- Brigham Young SO RHP Mason Marshall
- Pepperdine JR RHP Evan Dunn
- Brigham Young SR RHP Brandon Kinser
- San Francisco SR RHP Logan West
- St. Mary’s SR RHP Tanner Kichler
- San Diego rJR RHP Drew Jacobs
Northeast Conference 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team
Bryant JR C Buck McCarthy
Bryant JR 1B Robby Rinn
Mount St. Mary’s SR 2B Kory Britton
Bryant JR SS Dan Cellucci
Long Island-Brooklyn SR 3B Bobby Webb
Bryant JR OF AJ Zarozny
Bryant SR OF Jordan Mountford
Sacred Heart JR OF Jayson Sullivan
Bryant JR RHP Kyle Wilcox
Wagner SO RHP Nolan Long
Brynat SR LHP Trevor Lacosse
Long Island-Brooklyn SR RHP Rafael Guerrero
Wagner JR RHP Mike Adams
My rough count has eight players drafted last year from the Northeast Conference. It’s early yet, but I think the conference will be hard-pressed to match that total in 2015. That’s not because it’s necessarily a down talent year for the NEC; it’s just more top-heavy than usual. The top guys all happen to be pitchers this year led by the fascinating one-two punch of Bryant JR RHP Kyle Wilcox and Wagner SO RHP Nolan Long.
Kyle Wilcox is pretty much what you’d draw up if you wanted to create an under-the-radar college pitching prospect with big league starting potential. He’s been well hidden (HS in Connecticut, college in Rhode Island) with minimal wear-and-tear on his right arm, and he’s been allowed to develop at a smaller school in a smaller conference at his own pace. His athleticism (plus) and arm strength (90-95 FB, 96-97 peak) are both stellar, and his hard breaking ball flashes plus. There’s still enough rawness to his game (control, third pitch) that a high pick (first three rounds or so) won’t be needed to take a shot on him. Geography, a relative lack of experience, plus athleticism, and quotes calling him “still very clearly a work in progress”: that’s the template for a draft sleeper.
A very similar story could be written for Nolan Long. His path to this point (Connecticut HS and New York college), the fact that two sport stardom has reduced his workload (and kept him raw enough to slip past where his physical gifts should see him taken), easy to spot plus athleticism, and longstanding command issues (stemming from inconsistent mechanics) all make him (oxymoron alert) an easy to identify potential draft sleeper. Of course, like Wilcox, the term sleeper is relative: I know about him, you know about him, EVERYBODY in baseball who gets paid for this stuff knows about him, but the possibility of falling in the draft past where his talent should dictate is still very much in play. Also like Wilcox, Long has the goods to go high even if it weren’t for the fresh arm and athleticism. He has more than enough present fastball (88-94, 95 peak) and offspeed stuff (above-average CU, average breaker) to give a glimpse at what could be.
Most impressively, we’ve made it a whole 150 words or so here without mentioning the fact that Long is listed at 6-10, 240 pounds. The fact that he’s a giant is considered an afterthought by many who really, really like the guy. Now if you didn’t know that Long was a big man, you might have surmised as much based on some of the hints dropped above: two-sport star (basketball, obviously), plus athlete, and inconsistent mechanics. The last two points are what currently fascinate me most about Long. He’s 6-10, 240 pounds, but, if you can buy it, he doesn’t move like a human being that big. I mean that in the best way possible, like when the NBA’s most athletic big men (Anthony Davis, for one) are talked about as capable of running the floor like guards. I can’t even begin to imagine how tricky it is for a man of his size to reproduce an act as precise and scripted as a pitching windup, but Long pulls it off.
The ability to reproduce one’s mechanics and maintain a consistent release point (and landing spot) is vital to the development of professional grade command. Big guys often struggle with this for obvious reason. Great athletes, however, are given a huge leg up on figuring things out mechanically*. This is what makes Long a bit of a conundrum for scouts. He’s so tall that you can’t help but worry about him coordinating his body’s movements well enough to throw consistent strikes, but he’s so athletic that you want to believe that with enough hard work he’ll figure out some mechanical middle ground that suits him.
*This is one of the reasons I’m less worried about Dillon Tate’s occasional mechanical weirdness (and subsequent loss of command) than most. He’s a good enough athlete to smooth things out over time. Long’s athleticism is in that same class. I’ve been burned countless times by larger than life pitchers (hitters as well, for that matter) because baseball is a game of such carefully choreographed movements. Logic dictates that the longer one’s limbs are the more difficult it is to coordinate one’s movements at once. This is what you hear about when hitters are talked about as having difficulty getting their long levers through the zone quick enough to make consistent contact or any of the previously discussed challenges with command brought down by sloppy mechanics.
I’m all for giving Long a shot in a round that makes sense for both him and the team, but my own history of overhyping oversized pitchers makes me reluctant to put too high a grade on him. The gap between what he could be and what he currently is, premium now stuff or not, is just too great for me to gamble on him within the draft’s top five rounds or so. For what it’s worth, I got a chance to see Long start earlier this year in Wagner’s first win in ten tries back on March 14th against Northeastern. I can’t go into too much depth about what I saw for reasons I’ll disclose later, but needless to say his release point, command, and control were all major topics of the day. The name Andrew Brackman might have been brought up once or twice. It wasn’t a bad showing by any stretch, but it did little to quell any of the oft-cited concerns that currently stand in the way of him ever reaching his considerable upside.
If optimistic about Long’s future, an easy comparison can be made to another two-sport athlete listed at the same height of Long. From Baseball America’s initial pro scouting report on Chris Young back in 2000…
Young has outstanding mechanics and coordination for such a big man. Scouts are impressed with how he consistently repeats his delivery, a difficult task for tall pitchers. He also is graceful and moves well around the mound. Young’s fastball routinely hits 90 mph and has the potential to max out at 95-96 mph because of his large frame. His breaking and offspeed pitches need work, which is understandable because he lacks experience.
Swap Long for Young and that could read very similarly to what the former’s bigger advocates are saying. Seven years in a big league rotation and over one thousand career innings are lofty goals for Long, but the raw talent is significant enough that it’s not crazy. I tend to think Long falls closer to Brackman than Young on the tall basketball player/righthanded pitcher spectrum. We’ll see.
Long Island-Brooklyn SR RHP Rafael Guerrero has enough in the way of stuff (88-94 FB, usable CU and CB) to contribute in a big league bullpen one day, but the control issues that have hindered him throughout his college career will need to be corrected if he’s to have any semblance of a pro future. Bryant SR LHP Trevor Lacosse doesn’t have the most exciting profile, but the uniqueness of his stuff, most notably an underwhelming fastball in terms of velocity that plays way up thanks to movement, location, and deception, as well as a breaking ball that flashes plus, could make him a pain the neck for opposing hitters in short bursts at the next level.
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Hitting
- Bryant JR OF AJ Zarozny
- Bryant JR C/OF Buck McCarthy
- Mount St. Mary’s SR 2B/3B Kory Britton
- Wagner SR C Nick Dini
- Bryant SR OF/C Jordan Mountford
- Mount St. Mary’s SR C Andrew Clow
- Bryant JR 1B Robby Rinn
- Sacred Heart JR OF Jayson Sullivan
- Long Island-Brooklyn SR 3B Bobby Webb
- Wagner JR 3B/OF Ben Ruta
- Fairleigh Dickinson JR 2B/SS Dylan Sprague
- Bryant JR SS Dan Cellucci
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching
- Bryant JR RHP Kyle Wilcox
- Wagner SO RHP Nolan Long
- Bryant SR LHP Trevor Lacosse
- Long Island-Brooklyn SR RHP Rafael Guerrero
- Central Connecticut State JR LHP Cody Brown
- Wagner JR RHP Mike Adams
- Central Connecticut State JR LHP Casey Brown
- Central Connecticut State SR RHP/1B Dominic Severino
- Long Island-Brooklyn SR RHP Dustin Carlson
Ohio Valley 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team
Morehead State rSR C Chris Robinson
Jacksonville State JR 1B Paschal Petrongolo
Belmont JR 2B Tyler Fullerton
Tennessee Tech SR SS Dylan Bosheers
Belmont SR 3B Matt Beaty
Eastern Kentucky JR OF Kyle Nowlin
Tennessee Tech JR OF Jake Rowland
Morehead State SR OF Brandon Rawe
Austin Peay State JR RHP Jared Carkuff
Morehead State rJR RHP Aaron Goe
Morehead State JR RHP Tyler Keele
Morehead State rJR RHP Craig Pearcy
Southeast Missouri State JR LHP Alex Winkelman
If Belmont SR 3B/C Matt Beaty doesn’t end up as one of this draft class’ favorites for teams that rely heavily on analytics, then I give up. Beaty has walked more than he has struck out in all three full seasons so far with last year’s line of .352/.478/.536 with 28 BB and 14 K the cherry on top of a wholly impressive statistical run. That’s what I would have written if I didn’t happen to look at what he’s done so far this season. If last year was a cherry this year is another mound of whipped cream on top of that: .415/.495/.805 with 12 BB and 1 K in 82 AB. The sample size is obviously small and the level of competition isn’t exactly the kind to scare a good hitter straight – in fact, (small) he (sample) went (size) just 1-7 combined with a 2B and 2 BB against Notre Dame and Tennessee, though he fared better against solid teams like Bradley and Evansville so who knows – but production like Beaty’s really should get him a tiny bit of fanfare by now. The fact that he’s done this before – not to this extent, but still – makes me think there’s some validity behind his (small sample size) video game numbers. Even without seeing him and knowing next to nothing about his defensive outlook, his is a bat I would stick my neck out for if my team was searching for a senior sign hitter in the eighth, ninth, or tenth rounds that they could give a significant underslot deal.
One of the interesting things I’ve learned over the last decade of drifting in and out of baseball is how varied draft preparation is from team to team. Obviously you’d expect to see a wide variety of attention to detail among individual area and associate scouts – even with team-issued standardized report templates there’s always wiggle room to go off script if you have strong feelings about a player – but it surprised me to hear about how different rooms actually go about discussing players while the draft is going on. I know plenty of teams go in as prepared as you’d hope with everything lined up and ready to go; picking players for them is almost a formality, as they’ve already “picked” who they want and it just becomes a matter of checking for availability and moving on to the next name once one of their guys is taken. Almost all the debating and discussion in those instances have taken place well before the actual draft, so picking players is relatively stress-free outside of hoping certain favorites fall. I’ve also heard a few stories of teams, and obviously we’re talking quite late in the draft, picking players off of one look from an area guy, or, in some cases, sight unseen. In the latter example, the players were selected due to hitting certain statistical benchmarks, or, believe it or don’t, a quick check of the rankings or scouting blurbs at some of the industry leading prospect publications (though I think it’s fair to say the quality has dipped of late, Baseball America remains the go-to for draft coverage within the game – I think Perfect Game’s draft work has lapped them and is the true industry standard right now, but old habits die hard). All this is to say that I think Beaty could wind up as one of those players who gets picked on the strength of his ridiculous college production rather than years of up close and personal scouting trips. That’s not to say that he’s a mystery to pro teams right now – there are too many scouts on the road at any given time for anybody to remain a mystery for long – but rather that he could position himself to get drafted even if an area guy submits a lukewarm (or worse) scouting report on him.
Finally, since I should wrap this Matt Beaty opus up some time before June, a quick word on his defense. It has taken a few years, but I’m just now willing to move off my stubborn insistence of sticking with Beaty as a pro catching prospect. He’s been the starter at third for Belmont for a long time now, so it’s time to acknowledge, despite having a few pro guys tell me they’d only consider drafting him to give him a shot as a catcher, that it’s at least as likely that he’s a pro third baseman than he’s a catcher in the future. I don’t know. I wish I knew more, but I don’t. I haven’t seen him and I haven’t heard from anybody in the last eighteen months or so who had a strong enough take on his defense to move me in either direction. His bat as a catcher is really intriguing. His bat as a third baseman – depending on how well he can pick it there – is still really intriguing, albeit slightly less so. His bat as a first baseman is still worth taking a shot on in the round range for the dollar value that I described earlier. In other words, any good news I hear about his defense between now and June will be considered a pleasant surprise. The bat is what will make or break him, and I’m willing to ride it out to see how he adjusts as a hitter to pro ball no matter what the glove does.
Both Jacksonville State JR 1B Paschal Petrongolo and Morehead State SR 1B Kane Sweeney have power, work deep counts, walk a bunch, and strike out. All that also applies to Southeast Missouri State JR 1B/OF Ryan Rippee, a high upside transfer off to a good start with plus raw power and size (6-6, 230) to dream on. Jacksonville State JR 1B Tyler Gamble, Eastern Kentucky JR 1B/3B Mandy Alvarez, and Southern Illinois Edwardsville SR Alec Saikal (listed at 6-7, 240) have a little less present power than the rest of the first base class, but provide more patience as hitters. I’m about as bullish on this collective group as I can be, so take the following prediction with a grain of salt: at least three first basemen from the OVC get drafted this June. The prediction is a tad less bold when you realize the Ohio Valley has seen a highly impressive dozen players selected in each of the past three MLB Drafts, but still.
I made the choice to headline this piece with Matt Beaty, but I could just have easily opted to kick it off with a couple hundred words on the bizarrely underrated Tennessee Tech SR SS/2B Dylan Bosheers, who is ranked one spot ahead of the big bat of Beaty due to his almost equal bat but clearly more impressive defensive upside. Quite simply, Bosheers was a baffling omission from last year’s draft. He’s done everything asked from him as a college player and then some (.368/.444/.577 with 27 BB/32 K in 234 AB last year), and he has at least two clear average or better professional tools (defense, speed). He’s not just a slap and dash bat, either; he’s got an approach geared towards driving the ball and he’s capable of using the whole field as well as almost any middle infielder in the country. A future pro shortstop with average speed (plays up thanks to his smarts on the bases) and meaningful pop that walks as much as he strikes out has a place in the draft’s top fifteen rounds. I could see him deservedly getting picked in the same range I predicted for Beaty (8th/9th/10th) as a money-saving option senior sign for a smart club that emphasizes college production. Depending on how things shake out the rest of the way, he might wind up even higher than that on my personal board. I like players with the upside of being quality big league infielders, what can I say? I’m not great at analogies, but I think something like [Alex Bregman : Blake Trahan as Blake Trahan : Dylan Bosheers] works.
Morehead State rSR C/OF Chris Robinson is far more athletic than your ordinary catcher with above-average or better speed and defensive tools interesting enough that you can envision him becoming pretty good behind the plate if his drafting team is patient with him. I’m a fan.
Morehead State rJR RHP Aaron Goe is an imposing 6-5, 220 pound strike-throwing machine with enough fastball (88-92) and an above-average breaking ball. When sifting through late round draft candidates from smaller conferences extremes tend to jump out, so Goe’s easy plus control could give him a shot to go higher than expected on draft day. Small samples both years, but his current 0.70 BB/9 is actually up from his 0.69 BB/9 mark from last year. He falls just behind Austin Peay State JR RHP Jared Carkuff in the conference for me based largely on Carkuff’s promising blend of present stuff (90-94 FB, above-average low- to mid-80s SL) and projection (long, lean 6-4, 170 pound frame).
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Hitting
- Tennessee Tech SR SS/2B Dylan Bosheers
- Belmont SR 3B/C Matt Beaty
- Eastern Illinois SR 3B Brant Valach
- Jacksonville State JR 1B Paschal Petrongolo
- Morehead State SR 1B Kane Sweeney
- Southeast Missouri State JR 1B/OF Ryan Rippee
- Morehead State rSR C/OF Chris Robinson
- Eastern Kentucky JR OF Kyle Nowlin
- Tennessee Tech JR OF Jake Rowland
- Morehead State SR OF Brandon Rawe
- Eastern Illinois rJR OF/1B Demetre Taylor
- Eastern Illinois SR OF Caleb Howell
- Belmont SR OF Drew Ferguson
- Jacksonville State JR 1B Tyler Gamble
- Eastern Kentucky JR 1B/3B Mandy Alvarez
- Belmont JR 2B/OF Tyler Fullerton
- Murray State SR 2B/OF Anthony Bayus
- Southeast Missouri State SR C Cole Ferguson
- Tennessee-Martin SR OF/RHP Taylor Douglas
- Eastern Illinois JR 2B Mitch Gasbarro
- Morehead State SR SS Robby Spencer
- Southern Illinois Edwardsville SR OF Denton Reed
- Southeast Missouri State JR C Scott Mitchell
- Southeast Missouri State JR SS Andy Lack
- Eastern Kentucky JR 2B/3B Doug Teegarden
- Southern Illinois Edwardsville SR OF Nick Lombardo
- Morehead State SR OF Nick Newell
- Southern Illinois Edwardsville SR 1B Alec Saikal
- Belmont SR C/1B Alec Diamond
- Southeast Missouri State rSR OF Jason Blum
- Tennessee Tech SR C Jordan Hopkins
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching
- Austin Peay State JR RHP Jared Carkuff
- Morehead State rJR RHP Aaron Goe
- Morehead State JR RHP Tyler Keele
- Morehead State rJR RHP Craig Pearcy
- Southeast Missouri State JR LHP Alex Winkelman
- Murray State JR RHP Andrew Bramley
- Jacksonville State SR RHP Zachary Fowler
- Southeast Missouri State SR RHP Ryan Lenaburg
- Southern Illinois Edwardsville JR RHP Jarrett Bednar
- Tennessee Tech JR RHP Trevor Maloney
- Belmont JR RHP Aaron Quillen
- Southeast Missouri State SR RHP Travis Hayes
- Belmont SR LHP Dan Ludwig
- Southern Illinois Edwardsville SR RHP Ryan Daniels
- Murray State SR LHP/OF Brock Downey
- Tennessee-Martin SR LHP Carter Smith
- Eastern Kentucky SR RHP Ben Gullo
- Morehead State JR RHP Matt Anderson
- Eastern Kentucky SR RHP Cody Creamer
SoCon 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team
Western Carolina JR C Danny Bermudez
Western Carolina SR 1B Jacob Hoyle
East Tennessee State 2B Trey York
Wofford JR SS Alec Paradowski
Furman SR 3B Chris Ohmstede
Virginia Military Institute rSR OF Jordan Tarsovich
East Tennessee State JR OF Jeremy Taylor
Virginia Military Institute SR OF Brandon Angus
North Carolina Greensboro JR RHP Ryan Clark
North Carolina Greensboro JR RHP Keaton Haack
Mercer SR RHP Dmitri Kourtis
Samford SR RHP Andres Gracia
The Citadel JR RHP Skylar Hunter
The top seven pitchers ranked in the Southern Conference are as close as any conference’s top tier of pitching prospects that I’ve looked at so far. Every one of them has the stuff to pitch in pro ball, so picking a favorite among them amounts to revealing as much about the picker than the pitcher picked. There are guys built for the bullpen, riskier plays with starter upside, and even a former prep star primed for a breakout. JR RHP Ryan Clark (UNC Greensboro) and SR RHP Dmitri Kourtis (Mercer) have explosive 88-92ish fastballs that are extremely difficult to elevate. Both should find success as relievers professionally, though the 6-5, 230 pound Clark has a pair of offspeed pitches good and command enough to start if called upon. SR RHP Andres Gracia (Samford) and SR RHP Tyler Powell (Western Carolina) also both profile as intimidating pro relievers thanks to good fastballs (90-95 for Gracia, 88-93 with 94-95 peaks for Powell) and breaking balls that flash plus. JR RHP Skylar Hunter (The Citadel) can’t match their size at just 6-1, 185 pounds, but offers similar stuff and upside out of the bullpen. I’m particularly intrigued at the moment by JR RHP Keaton Haack (UNC Greensboro) and JR RHP Will Stillman (Wofford). Both player still have a little projection left while presently throwing three pitches for strikes (87-91 FB and average or better CU and SL for Haack; 88-92 FB and average or better CU and CB for Stillman) with flashes of dominance (9.00 K/9 for Haack last year; 11.74 K/9 [but wild] for Stillman last year) that portend good things to come. Haack is an Alabama transfer who has long been a favorite; in fact, he was my 43rd ranked overall pitching prospect back in 2012. The only unsigned pitchers ahead of him that year were Walker Buehler, Hunter Virant, Kyle Twomey, Trey Killian, Grayson Long, Carson Fulmer, Justin Garza, Alec Rash, Ryan Burr, and Cody Poteet. Pretty nice company to be in, I’d say.
The bats in the SoCon aren’t quite as exciting, but there are a few names worth knowing as we head into the mid-way mark of the season. JR 2B Trey York (East Tennessee State) got the nod as the top second baseman on the this list because of his game-changing speed and above-average or better glove work. I had no idea that the guy who hit .231/.305/.349 last season would start this year hitting .469/.532/.922. It’s only 64 AB, but I’d take hot hitting over cold hitting in any sample. I have a hunch he won’t keep slugging .900+ the rest of the way, though he’s been praised for being stronger with a swing built for more power than most college middle infield prospects in the past. Once the power surge ends you’ll still have a capable defender with plus to plus-plus speed and good size. There’s something work watching in York.
SR 2B/3B Brad Strong (Western Carolina) is a senior sign that I’d have high on my preference list this June and not just because his weird every other year plate discipline thing fascinates me. His BB/K numbers over the years…
2012: 4 BB/30 K
2013: 25 BB/31 K
2014: 19 BB/41 K
2015: 6 BB/4 K
This year isn’t far enough along to even pretend that this is a trend, but it’s still fun. Strong is a pesky hitter who can both run and field enough to be useful in a utility role going forward. Works for me.
JR C Danny Bermudez (Western Carolina) is a reliable defender with plenty of sock but not a ton of patience. SR 1B/LHP Jacob Hoyle (Western Carolina) is a big man with the power you’d expect but far fancier footwork around the bag than you’d expect defensively. The power is nice, but he’s too much of a hacker for my tastes. SR 1B/OF Eric Kalbfleisch (North Carolina Greensboro) is a curiously underrated hitter who has pro size (6-3, 210), an average or better hit tool, and more average-ish tools (speed, arm) than most first base prospects. All three players could get some late round love with continued growth this spring.
The Southern Conference has a swell collection of speedy center fielders headlined by rSR OF/2B Jordan Tarsovich (VMI) and JR OF Jeremy Taylor (East Tennessee State). Tarsovich is a pretty well-rounded prospect who fits the leadoff hitter profile nicely. Taylor, the more powerful of the two, runs and defends in center as well as any other player in the conference. SR OF Garrett Brown (Western Carolina) gets a spot on these rankings as long as he has college eligibility left. He’s a sensational athlete with plus-plus speed who brings a football mentality to the diamond. I could see the fans of the team that drafts him in June confused at what they are getting if they check the numbers, but if he ever devotes himself to baseball full-time then it’ll all make sense. I’m not prognosticating anything specific when it comes to Brown’s future, but rather pointing out how appealing a late round gamble he’ll be.
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Hitting
- Virginia Military Institute rSR OF/2B Jordan Tarsovich
- East Tennessee State JR 2B Trey York
- Western Carolina SR 2B/3B Brad Strong
- Wofford JR SS Alec Paradowski
- East Tennessee State JR SS Jordan Sanford
- Western Carolina SR 1B/LHP Jacob Hoyle
- North Carolina Greensboro SR 1B/OF Eric Kalbfleisch
- East Tennessee State JR OF Jeremy Taylor
- Virginia Military Institute SR OF Brandon Angus
- Wofford SR OF/C Matt Ramsay
- North Carolina Greensboro SR 2B Hunter King
- Furman SR 3B Chris Ohmstede
- Western Carolina JR C Danny Bermudez
- Western Carolina SR OF Garrett Brown
- Samford JR SS Frankie Navarette
- East Tennessee State JR 1B/C Kevin Phillips
- Furman SR OF Jake Jones
- Mercer SR 2B Devin Bonin
- North Carolina Greensboro rSR OF Zac MacAneney
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching
- North Carolina Greensboro JR RHP Ryan Clark
- North Carolina Greensboro JR RHP Keaton Haack
- Mercer SR RHP Dmitri Kourtis
- Samford SR RHP Andres Gracia
- The Citadel JR RHP Skylar Hunter
- Western Carolina SR RHP Tyler Powell
- Wofford JR RHP Will Stillman
- Wofford SO RHP Jacob Condra-Bogan
- Wofford JR RHP Luke Leftwich
- Western Carolina JR LHP Taylor Durand
- Western Carolina JR RHP Colton Davis
- Virginia Military Institute SR RHP Andrew Woods
- Samford SR RHP Mikel Belcher
- East Tennessee State JR RHP Griffin Krieg
- Furman SR RHP Elliot Warford
- Furman SR LHP/1B Ryan Morse
- Mercer SR RHP Ben Lumsden
- The Citadel rJR LHP James Reeves
- Samford SR RHP Cole Limbaugh
- Samford JR RHP Parker Curry
- Samford rSR RHP Mark Donham
- Wofford JR RHP Matthew Milburn
- Samford SR RHP Alex Ledford
- East Tennessee State SR RHP Jimmy Nesselt
- Wofford JR LHP Connor Foltyn
The Baseball Draft Report 