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2013 MLB Draft Preview: Marshall Thundering Herd
Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)
1. JR RHP Aaron Blair
2. rSR OF Isaac Ballou
3. SR 1B Nathan Gomez
4. SR 3B/OF Gray Stafford
I have to imagine it is nice playing for a school that isn’t necessarily a traditional baseball power during the same stretch as a hotly scouted prospect in his draft year. Scouts will beat a path to Huntington, West Virginia all year long to see potential first round pick Aaron Blair. In the process, chances are they’ll see a handful of interesting draft prospects that are more than worthy of their time.
Joining Blair on the Thundering Herd pitching staff will be JR RHP Josh King, SR LHP Wayland Moore, and rJR RHP Ryan Hopkins. King, whose numbers intrigue me even though I don’t know much about him from a scouting standpoint, is probably the best draft prospect of the bunch, but I’d call them all long shots at this juncture. Draft prospects aside, the Marshall staff figures to be supported just fine by a strong, veteran core of returning hitters. It’ll be fun to see if any of Marshall’s returning big three bats – rSR OF Isaac Ballou, SR 1B Nathan Gomez, and SR 3B/OF Gray Stafford – emerge as sure-fire June draft picks. All are clearly talented enough to warrant consideration, but none are stone cold mortal locks. I’ve long been a fan of Ballou, so it should come as no surprise that I think he’s the closest thing to a position player lock as there is on the Marshall roster. He’s a really pesky hitter (.397 OBP in 2011, .450 in 2012) with an approach that fits well at the top of a lineup. He’s got enough speed and instincts to keep the “leadoff hitting CF” narrative alive, and there could be some yet unseen power in his sturdy 6-2, 200 pound frame. I like simplicity in my notes, so I can admit to being drawn to Gomez’ short and sweet entry: “he can really swing it.” All the more impressive is the fact that note came about after his disappointing sophomore season (.252/.384/.387) and not his improved junior year (.320/.414/.447). Like Ballou, there are some physical indicators that point to more power to come, but it is now or never for both guys, at least at the amateur level. Gomez should still get some late-round consideration even if he remains a gap power, good approach, smooth defender kind of player. A little more over the fence pop would be icing on the cake. Stafford stands out as perhaps the toolsiest of the senior trio. He has an interesting blend of power, speed, and plus arm strength that give him the look and feel of a professional ballplayer. Unfortunately, he’s the least likely of the three to reach his ultimate ceiling. Unlike Ballou and Gomez, Stafford’s approach at the plate is a total mess. His defense is also a bit of a question mark going forward, as there is some debate on whether or not his long-term home is third base or right field.
We buried the lede a bit here by not talking about Blair as much as his prospect status warrants. It may not be the most descriptive adjective around, but the word “good” can be found throughout Blair’s scouting notes in my Word doc: good command of a 87-92 FB (93 peak) with good sink; good 74-78 CB; 81-85 CU thrown with good looking arm action; good, sturdy frame (6-5, 220 pounds); good numbers (8.42 K/9 in 2011, 9.04 K/9 and 3.37 FIP in 2012). If you didn’t know any better, you’d think Blair is a pretty darn good prospect, right? At this moment, he looks like a really strong bet to keep progressing until settling into his eventual role as big league mid-rotation starting pitcher. He’s a safe — well, as safe as any inherently risky amateur prospect can be — prospect, not a sexy one. Good across the board, neither great nor lacking in any one area. I liken him to a sturdier version of former Long Beach State and current Milwaukee Brewer RHP Drew Gagnon, a third round pick back in 2011. His profile also reminds me a little bit of Matt Barnes before Barnes velocity spike. I’m not enough of a scout (or a scout at all, really) to place odds on Blair experiencing a similar increase in stuff — I’m not sure any scout can actually predict this stuff, short of noticing a body desperately in need of better strength and conditioning and/or a major mechanical overhaul — but recognizing the possibility helps me cover myself just in case. Anyway, Blair looks like a good starting pitching prospect with the chance to go pretty good in this June’s draft. Good pitcher, good analysis.
2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know
1. FR RHP Michael Taylor
Marshall’s best pro prospect hasn’t officially stepped on the field yet. Incoming freshman RHP Michael Taylor, eligible for the draft next year due to his 3/3/93 birthdate, is like Randy Moss, Chad Pennington, and Byron Leftwitch all rolled into one. Hyperbole aside, he’s a legitimate early round pick in 2014 with the chance to contribute immediately this spring. He has three pitches that all could be average or better in time: 88-92 FB (94 peak), good low-70s CB, and raw but promising low-80s CU. Another 2014 to watch is light-hitting, steady fielding middle infielder Andrew Dundon. The sophomore 2B/SS held his own at the plate last year (.270/.371/.305) and could keep moving in the direction as a potential utility infielder if he keeps doing what he does best. I also wouldn’t sleep on SO RHP Lance Elder: good size, decent freshman showing, and a cool baseball name.
Finally, and mostly because I’m a sick person who just can’t help himself, a quick note on the really promising pitching-heavy crop of 2015 talent brought in by Jeff Waggoner. Taylor was the big get, but LHP Micah Dunn, FR RHP Brandyn Sittinger, and FR LHP Zach Shockley all have the talent to be drafted in three years. Sittinger’s youth and quick arm will get him looks, and Shockley’s mature three-pitch mix ought to get him some innings right off the bat. Marshall reloaded at catcher, a traditionally strong spot at Marshall thanks to years of Victor Gomez and Thor Meeks, with a pair of highly regarded transfers, but there’s a chance that all four freshman pitchers could wind up throwing to fellow frosh David Diaz-Fernandez sooner rather than later. Future looks good at Marshall.
2013 MLB Draft Preview: Cal State Northridge Matadors
Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)
1. rSO RHP Kyle Ferramola
2. JR OF Miles Williams
In my perfect world I’d have the time and patience to do a draft preview for every college team in the country. Life in this perfect world would be better because I could justify the time spent reviewing teams that have no future big league players. Even worse are the teams that seem 50/50 at best when it comes to whether or not there is even a draftable talent on hand. As it is, forty minutes of my daily allowance of baseball draft website time, time that could have been spent in a million other more relevant, marketable (mock draft!) ways, has now been lost researching and writing about Cal State Northridge. I’m quite happy with the decision, but that’s because I’m a crazy person who a) is a self-proclaimed completest (ignore my shoddy track record finishing what I start, please), and b) cares just as much about the prospects at the Cal State Northridges of the world as I do at any traditional SEC or Big 12 powerhouse. Knowing going in that the only people who will care enough about what I’ve written are the fellow draft-obsessed and the friends/family members of players on the team gives me comfort.
JR RHP Harley Holt is a really sound college pitcher known for his excellent pitchability and above-average command. He likely lacks the strikeout stuff – upper-80s FB, no true go-to secondary offering – to warrant much draft consideration. rSO RHP Kyle Ferramola, a Washington transfer, has a really quick arm (95-96 peak) and has flashed a plus breaking ball in the past. If his command comes around and/or he refines a third pitch, preferably something even more offspeed, then he could get looks as a potential starting pitcher. If not, he has enough arm talent to become a useful bullpen piece down the line. The Cal State Northridge offense will be carried by a veteran outfield headlined by their best 2013 position player prospect JR OF Miles Williams. I think Williams will likely be the Matadors’ best 2014 position player prospect after going undrafted this June, but his combination of pop and arm strength may be enough to tempt a team if he puts together a big junior campaign. I see a corner outfielder with decent tools and an approach that needs a lot of work. He’s still the pick as the most likely Matador bat to get drafted this June, but senior sign fits his profile a lot better in my view.
2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know
1. SO RHP Jordan Johnson
There’s no 2014 prospect that currently jumps off the page, but that doesn’t mean Cal State Northridge doesn’t have a few intriguing names to watch, at least on the college stage. Relatively unproven hard throwers Jordan Johnson and Kyle Ferramola, both sophomore righthanders, make up for their lack of command and overall polish with mid-90s heat, promising breaking stuff, and ample athleticism. Both guys very clearly have professional upside, but it will take time for them to get acclimated – or re-acclimated in the case of Ferramola, a Washington transfer — to college ball. [EDIT: After a little bit more digging, it appears that Ferramola is draft-eligible in 2013. I added him to the list above.] rFR RHP Louis Cohen and SO RHP Brandon Warner bring more experience than most second-year college pitchers (close to 100 IP last year combined), but neither currently has the stuff to help them separate from the herd. SO LHP Jerry Keel deserves mention both for his work eating innings as a freshman (91.1 IP in 2012) and for his [insert obvious joke here] as he tips in the scales at 6-6, 280 pounds. He’s worth watching.
(Ed. Note: I received an email asking about RHP Shay Maltese. I’m very much an outsider, so most of my roster information comes from surfing official team websites and whatever random newspaper clippings I can Google my way towards. As far as I can tell, Maltese is currently on Cal State Stanislaus’ 2013 roster. I know Perfect Game has Maltese listed on Northridge’s squad, so it could very well be that the more plugged-in staffers there know something I don’t. It’s worth noting that Cal State Northridge’s team page lists only returning players on the Fall roster, i.e. there are no freshman or transfers listed. If Maltese is a Matador this spring, you can put him at the top of the 2013 draft list, narrowly beating out a very similarly talented prospect in Ferramola.)
2013 MLB Draft Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers
Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)
1. SR OF/2B Brady Wilson
2. rJR OF Matt Frazer
West Virginia has some work to do if they want to field a competitive program in the Big 12. That’s hardly a bold statement, but I feel, after looking over the prospects on this current WVU squad’s roster, it needed to be said. The cupboard isn’t necessarily bare, but we’ve eaten all the Kraft Macaroni & Cheese and Cocoa Pebbles and are left with trying to figure out what recipe consists of breadcrumbs, vanilla pudding mix, and the free sample of 5-hour energy that has been in there for a year and a half.
From a prospect standpoint, those checking out West Virginia this year would be wise to focus their attention on the Mountaineers outfield. Depending on your taste in prospects, an argument could be made for either SR OF Brady Wilson or rJR OF Matt Frazer as worthy mid- to late-round draft picks. Wilson’s speed makes him an intriguing player to track, especially if his drafting team believes he has the hands and feet to handle second base on a regular basis. His dip in production from his sophomore reason to his junior year cost him last June, so you have to think he’ll need a big bounce back year in 2013 to hear his name called on draft day.
Frazer’s calling card is his tremendous size (6-5, 260 pounds). For a man build like a tank, he’s surprisingly athletic in his actions, both in the field and at the plate. Unsuprisingly, he offers more in the way of power projection than the 5-11, 175 pound Wilson; by the same token, he’s no where near as speedy as the Mountaineers fleet of foot outfield prospect. So, again, pick your favorite based on personal preference: do you like the foot speed and defense (potentially a big boon if he can play 2B) of Wilson or is the power projection and physical presence of Frazer more your cup of tea? No wrong answer at this point, I’d say. JR 1B Ryan McBroom and rSR OF Chris Rasky round out the list of upperclassman expected to contribute that caught my eye, but neither player currently makes sense as a potential June draft pick.
There’s really not much to discuss on the mound, despite the presence of a fairly experienced group of college arms. I’d be happy to go into a season with SR RHP Dan Dierdorff, rJR LHP Marshall Thompson, and rSO LHP Harrison Musgrave (returning from 2012 Tommy John surgery) headlining my pitching staff, but can’t really go the next step and declare any single Mountaineers pitcher a legitimate pro prospect. Based largely on numbers alone, JR RHP Ryan Tezak stands out as perhaps the most appealing professional candidate: in limited innings, he’s been able to knockout batters at a strong rate (9.53 K/9 in 28.1 IP in 2011, 8.10 K/9 in 26.2 IP last year).
2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know
1. SO OF Bobby Boyd
I like SO OF Bobby Boyd as a more refined version of Wilson. He’s a player to watch due to his plus speed, leadoff approach, and impressive range in center field. It’ll be interesting to see if he can grow into some power over the next two or three seasons at WVU. Fellow sophomore 2B Billy Fleming is more of a sleeper, but I like him as a grinder-type who might be able to make some inroads with scouts who dig his gritty style of play.
2013 MLB Draft Preview: Purdue Boilermakers
Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)
1. rJR RHP Brad Schreiber
2. JR OF Stephen Talbott
3. JR C/1B Sean McHugh
Last year’s postseason run was a magical one for Purdue, so it should come as no shock to fans of the program that 2013 is set up as a “nowhere to go but down” kind of season. There is little doubt that times will be tough in the Boilermaker lineup, at least initially. Of the nine qualified batters listed on Purdue’s College Splits page, only two return in 2013. That includes nobody in the top four (sorted by wOBA): JR OF Stephen Talbott is fifth, SR 1B Angelo Cianfrocco ninth. Only two of the seven qualified pitchers (sorted by innings) return: rSR RHP Robert Ramer (fourth) and SO RHP Connor Podkul (fifth). Last year’s banner crop of hitters – Kevin Plawecki, Cameron Perkins, and Eric Charles – must be replaced, as will a number of solid arms off the pitching staff.
One notable exception to the returning pitchers note is rJR RHP Brad Schreiber, who, due to injury, isn’t included as a returning player but arguably has the greatest pro upside as any pitcher who did throw for Purdue in 2012. The strapping righthander’s return from the last year’s Tommy John surgery that wiped out his entire junior season will be interesting to watch for a few reasons.
It is widely accepted that command takes longer than velocity to come back after a procedure on the elbow. That bit of information is part of what makes Schreiber’s return so fascinating. The Boilermaker’s potential 2013 ace was never known for his command before the injury, so could it be that his return to full form will be an ever greater challenge? A more positive, and more likely, take would simply be you can’t long for what you’ve never known. Command was never what made Schreiber a prospect, so a lack of it due to the operation can’t be held too harshly against him, right? It’s a theory, at least. At his best, Schreiber relies on fastball after fastball after fastball, often without knowing quite sure each pitch is heading. His pre-injury peak velocities (94-96) jibe with his back of the bullpen profile, but what makes his heater really stand out is the explosive movement he gets on it. His is a fastball that may actually have too much movement for his own good at times. Better command and a more reliable breaking ball would help him shoot up boards.
Outside of Schreiber, there’s not a lot to currently love about future Boilermakers’ draft prospects. Admittedly, this is at least in part to the huge unknown that is the composition of this upcoming year’s team. I like Stephen Talbott as a speedy, high-contact organizational outfielder, and strong JR C/1B Sean McHugh has shown enough promise in the eyes of the Purdue coaching staff to assume the job of Plawecki’s successor behind the plate. Robert Ramer is probably the next best arm after Schreiber, but his game is built more on outstanding control – his 0.36 BB/9 in 50.1 IP last year has been the best I’ve noticed so far – than pro-caliber stuff. The betting man in me would probably only put my hard earned cash on Schreiber being drafted this year, with Talbott the next most likely name down the line and McHugh a close third.
I don’t mean to be all gloom and doom about Purdue’s prospects’ prospects going forward. I’m far from a college baseball expert, but it doesn’t take a well-compensated insider to see how good a job that Doug Schreiber has done turning around the program. Once game action begins I have little doubt that we’ll see some worthwhile names begin to pop up among the freshman and sophomore classes, and I wouldn’t completely rule out a “coached-up” existing upperclassman emerging from the current roster. There’s also the possibility that one of Purdue’s incoming junior college players – Conner Hudnall, perhaps – will prove himself draftable in the next few months.
2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know
1. FR LHP Jordan Minch
2. SO RHP Connor Podkul
The top returning prospect to watch for in 2014 is probably Connor Podkul, a righthander with good size (6-4, 200), good breaking stuff, and a steady freshman season under his belt. Getting incoming freshman LHP Jordan Minch, last year’s 298th best prospect according to the fool in charge of this site, is quite the coup for the Purdue program. He’ll be draft-eligible again in two years, so the pressure will be on to see if he can hone his three potential above-average pitches (upper-80s FB, mid-70s CB, and low-70s CU) in short order. I don’t know what Purdue has planned for the young lefty, but his advanced pitchability and superior command, to say nothing of his already solid stuff for a lefthanded pitcher, seem well-suited for the college game. With holes littering the Boilermakers pitching staff, I see no reason why he shouldn’t get opportunities to pitch from February on. The ability to convince a player of Minch’s caliber to turn down pro ball and come to West Lafayette is just one of many indicators that make it clear that Coach Schreiber has this program in excellent hands.
2013 MLB Draft Preview: Tennessee Volunteers
Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)
- JR RHP Nick Williams
- SR RHP Zack Godley
It doesn’t take a college baseball savant to see that the Tennessee program is still a few years away from making an impact in the SEC. One quick perusal of the Volunteers roster reveals the secret that backs up the prior statement: there are more true freshman on the roster than all other classes (sophomore, junior, senior) combined. As such, it isn’t easy finding worthwhile draft prospects to talk about. The best of the bunch of lot seems to be JR RHP Nick Williams. Williams isn’t without his flaws, most notably terribly inconsistent command and control that comes and goes, but he has a good fastball (up to 93) and the potential for two average or better offspeed pitches (curve and change). His build (6-1, 235 pounds) and command/control troubles point to the bullpen as his eventual professional home, though it wouldn’t stun me if it took another college season after this one to get to that point. That’s exactly what happened to Tennessee’s other draftable player, SR RHP Zack Godley. Godley, another pitcher who looks like he’ll eventually have to settle in as a reliever professionally, spurned the pros after his junior season to come back and try to boost his draft stock as a senior. I like Godley a lot as a college arm, and believe he has a future in pro ball in some capacity. Part of the reason for that is because I have a soft spot for righthanders who get by without big fastballs: he’ll hit 90/91 on occasion, but primarily lives in the mid- to upper-80s. Godley gets outs by mixing a deep repertoire (cutter/slider, softer curve, low-80s change) within the strike zone effectively. If you squint really hard you might see a little bit of Vance Worley there. Worley epitomizes the best case scenario for this command-oriented relatively soft throwing (Worley peaked at 93/94 at Long Beach, but many believed he’d be an upper-80s, 90/91 guy as a pro) college righthanded pitching prospect. In other words, don’t take the Godley/Worley thing as a direct comp per se. That’s what makes scouting and player development so difficult. In a given year, 25 pitchers may fit this basic description but only one emerges as a legitimate big league pitcher. Somebody smarter than me will someday make a lot of money finding a way to isolate whatever variables makes that one pitcher rise above the rest.
It is entirely possible I’m missing on another draftable Volunteer upperclassman, but, as of now, I’m sticking with Williams and Godley as the only two worth following. If I had to pick a third, I think I’d presently go with JR C Ethan Bennett. Bennett hit .179 last year with 30 strikeouts in 112 at bats. When that’s potentially your third most interesting draft-eligible prospect, things are going to take some time to get better. To be fair, Bennett did put up a solid freshman line of .254/.354/.476 in 126 at bats.
2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know
- SO INF/OF Will Maddox
Maddox is a versatile defender who showed good speed and above-average patience in his first year of major college ball. He may never have the carrying tool that will get him regular time as a big league player, but his brand of makeup, defensive flexibility, and solid bat is exactly what scouts look for in bench guys.
SO LHP Brandon Zajac’s freshman year didn’t go quite as well, but he’s got good size (6-4, 220 pounds) and a loose arm. The 2015 class, led by big names like powerful FR OF/LHP Vincent Jackson and rangy FR SS AJ Simcox, should be a lot of fun to follow. We’re obviously a long way away from June 2015, but it wouldn’t shock me if both hitters work themselves into the first round mix by then.
Image via Sports Logos.Net
2013 MLB Draft Preview: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)
- JR 1B/OF Daniel Palka
- JR RHP Matthew Grimes
- JR RHP/OF DeAndre Smelter
- SR OF Brandon Thomas
- JR RHP Dusty Isaacs
- JR C/RHP Zane Evans
- SR RHP Buck Farmer
- JR OF Kyle Wren
- JR SS Mott Hyde
I didn’t grow up around college baseball, I didn’t go to a school with college baseball, and I have no vested interest in seeing any particular college team succeed or fail. In my world, college sports only as an elaborate minor league system to the professional game. I sometimes feel like a big hypocrite for viewing college athletics that way – the players are exploited something awful and the NCAA is corrupt – and there’s a part of me that misses out on having a strong collegiate rooting interest (seeing so many high school pals go off to schools with huge sporting culture and tremendous game day atmospheres like Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, North Carolina, and Miami made me a little jealous during my fairly lame hockey or bust years at Boston University), but I’m still mostly alright with watching games to focus more on future pros and not outcomes. That’s all a long way of saying the following: I have no idea whether or not Georgia Tech has the horses to make a run deep into college baseball’s postseason, but I’m fairly sure they have a bunch of future professional players littered across the roster.
I think it is fair to say that Georgia Tech’s high hopes for 2013 took a bit hit with the news of Matt Grimes’ recent Tommy John surgery. The same injury to Grimes not only puts a dent in the upcoming Yellow Jackets season, but it also is a major blow to the young righthander’s draft stock. Completely healthy, it wasn’t a stretch to have Grimes off the board by the end of the draft’s first day. Injured, well, that’s a completely different story, as much for the potential long-term ramifications on his arm’s health (neither as big a deal as some want to make it nor as minor a procedure as others now suggest) as the lost year of development. Grimes stuff is the kind that you often see described as electric: explosive low- to mid-90s fastball mixed with a very good hard slider. Another year of college would have helped him threefold: improve his raw yet promising changeup, find a way to gain some consistency and body control for his 6-6 frame’s delivery, and make gains in the areas of command and control. Now teams will be left with whatever impressions they have from his high school days and his freshman year (Grimes only pitched 18.2 innings last year).
Palka has as much raw power as any player in college baseball. He’ll obviously have to eliminate some of the swing and miss to his game, something I think he has a better than you’d expect chance of happening based solely on his lofty collegiate strikeout totals. He’s a better natural hitter than he’s shown. I’ll be watching him closely this spring to see if he has improved on his ability to square up on balls that aren’t right down the middle of the plate. His plate coverage and ability to drive balls on the periphery of the zone are critical to bumping up his current below-average hit tool grade. I like Palka quite a bit, but, as always, take caution when dreaming on any bat-first prospect that isn’t a mortal lock to hit a ton as a professional.
Smelter gives off a pretty serious Phillippe Aumont vibe to me. That would be the Aumont of today (i.e. a reliever, but potentially a very good one) and not the Aumont of his draft year (i.e. a potential top of the rotation, Kevin Brown type of starter). Smelter needs innings this spring (he’s pitched only 23.2 innings at Georgia Tech) if he wants to get himself back on the early round draft radar like he was back in his prep days. There could be a team out there that likes him more as a power/speed outfield prospect, though I’ve yet to talk to anybody willing to go on record with that opinion.
Thomas was classified as a “poor man’s Barrett Barnes” in my draft notes last year. I think the comparison to the 45th overall pick in 2012 holds up pretty well: tweener-OF who may or may not have the instincts for CF (I think Thomas is more likely to stick up the middle than Barnes) or have enough raw power to start in a corner for a first-division club. If he does wind up as a leftfield-only kind of guy, I could see him putting up similar overall value as Gerardo Parra: good speed, some pop, outstanding defense. I’ve also heard a Matt Joyce ceiling thrown his way, assuming he maintains some of his recent power gains.
Isaacs may lack the premium size that teams want in a starting pitching prospect, but his stuff plays just fine in the rotation. He’ll give you three average or better pitches highlighted by a fastball that can get up to 94 and a plus slider when he commands it. It is hard to identify a sleeper prospect this early in the process, but Isaacs may qualify.
Evans is a legitimate prospect as either a catcher or a righthanded pitcher. I like him a smidge more as a position player because of his burgeoning power and strong defensive chops. On the mound, he has the chance for three average or better pitches (FB, CB, CU) in time.
Farmer is one of college baseball’s most confusing cases. At his best he looks like a legitimate big league pitcher with a nice fastball (have seen it up to 94), low-80s slider that flashes plus, and a good changeup with serious sink. He’s always put up strong numbers (9.30 K/9 in 2011, 10.29 K/9 in 2012) and has a sturdy 6-4, 225 pound frame. The confusion begins with the uneven reports on his stuff from start to start. When his velocity slips to the upper-80s, his slider gets loopy, and his changeup flattens out, he’s pretty darn ordinary. I’m not sure we’ll ever see the really good version of Farmer again – the very fact that this is an open question speaks to the doubts surrounding his pro future. Ultimately, I can see a little bit of Mark Pope and Seth Blair in his game, though not necessarily in terms of actual draft stock, but in terms of professional outcomes. All three can be categorized as steady college starting pitchers with big league fifth starters upside, with the acknowledgment that each is far more likely to pitch in middle relief, if at all, in the big leagues.
Wren was a big favorite after his sensational freshman season (.355/.429/.464 – 32 BB/30 K – 265 AB), but regressed almost across the board in 2012. One area he remained strong in was his outstanding plate discipline. I still like him as a speedy CF with the upside as a top of the lineup bat (and a hopeful floor of fifth outfielder), so I’ll be watching him closely in 2013. Rounding out the best Georgia Tech hitters is Hyde, a true shortstop with speed and the chance to hit for double-digit home runs as a pro. That’s a heck of a package and one that would deserve a much higher ranking than you see here. Astute readers will put two and two together and realize that the odds of Hyde reaching his ceiling are low.
Off the beaten prospect path a bit is where you’ll find guys like JR RHP Jonathan Roberts, SR 2B/OF Sam Dove, JR RHP/3B Alex Cruz, SR RHP Clay Dalton, and JR LHP Devin Stanton. Each player does enough well to stay on the map, but nothing so spectacularly that you can call them high priority 2013 follows. Roberts’ tools are probably the loudest of the bunch (wild mid-90s fastballs get a guy noticed), though I have a soft spot for the steady across the board Dove. After that you have three young pitchers who will need to impress the Georgia Tech coaching staff enough just to get meaningful innings before worrying about showing off for pro scouts.
2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know
- SO C AJ Murray
- SO RHP Cole Pitts
There isn’t a ton to love about Georgia Tech’s group of 2014 prospects. SO C AJ Murray, a favorite from his draft year, has the tools (power, arm, speed) to be an early round pick. His future will seemingly come down to opportunity (i.e. can he get the at bats needed to keep progressing) and defense. I’m less concerned about the latter (he’s athletic enough that I think he’ll eventually get it) than the former (Evans and fellow SO Connor Lynch are strong competition). SO RHP Cole Pitts’ slower than you’d like development of a reliable breaking ball is what currently keeps him behind Murray on this list. His fastball and change are more than enough to currently get by (7.38 K/9 in 78 freshman innings) in the ACC, but it’ll be the refinement of a third pitch that will get him on the prospect map.
The aforementioned Lynch did a solid job at the plate (.293/.348/.390 in 82 AB) in his freshman year. A bevvy of unproven yet intriguing youngsters like FR LHP Sam Clay, SO OF Jamal Golden, SO OF Dan Spingola, and FR LHP/OF Jonathan (JK) King fill out the rest of the prospect ledger. I also remain interested in a trio of relatively unheralded Georgia Tech sophomores: SO RHP Josh Heddinger, SO OF/1B Charles Sheffield, and SO INF Thomas Smith are all on the scouting radar in some capacity.
Image via Georgia Tech Relay for Life
2013 MLB Draft Preview: Virginia Cavaliers
Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)
- JR LHP Kyle Crockett
- JR RHP Artie Lewicki
- rSR LHP Scott Silverstein
- JR OF Mitchell Shifflett
- SR OF Reid Gragnani
- rJR RHP Whit Mayberry
This year’s Virginia team offers up an unusually sparse amount of prospects worth getting excited about. It isn’t, however, something to be concerned about if you’re a fan of the team. This is mostly true because of the really strong group of 2014s and 2015s coming up behind the lackluster 2013s, but also because one of the reasons 2013 doesn’t look as promising as it could is because of the one thing you really can’t predict: injuries. That’s a long way of pointing out the obvious: this group would look a lot better if Artie Lewicki was healthy. Lewicki, who will miss the 2013 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, could have challenged for a spot in the draft’s first three rounds if healthy. As it is, a team may yet gamble on his power arm (easy low-90s heat that peaks at 96, nasty low-80s slider) returning to form in his potential first full year of pro ball in 2014. His injury opens the door for Kyle Crockett to emerge as Virginia’s best 2013 draft prospect. Crockett reminds me a little bit of a slightly lesser version of North Carolina’s Kent Emanuel. He’s produced at a ridiculously high level since day one (9.56 K/9 in 2011, 9.00 K/9 and only 1.65 BB/9 in 60 innings last year) and has enough looseness in his arm to project some velocity gain (he’s currently upper-80s mostly) going forward. My notes on Crockett include the phrase “murder on lefties,” so, even if you don’t love him as a starter professionally, it sounds like he has a strong future in relief.
I refuse to give up on Scott Silverstein and you shouldn’t either. The redshirt senior has worked his tail off to get back to the low-90s after undergoing multiple operations to repair a torn left labrum. Add in a solid slider and an always strong changeup, and you’ve got a pretty good looking young pitcher. His medical history and advanced age may knock him back a few rounds past where his talent deserves. Even still, a smart team would be wise to stick with him this spring to see if his arm continues to bounce back. Fellow surgical patient Whit Mayberry (torn UCL in 2012) hopes to make his return to the diamond in similar triumphant fashion. Mayberry’s stuff wasn’t huge pre-injury, but he’s shown enough (some low-90s) with a strong track record (right around 9.00 K/9 over his 60 innings the past two years) to at least warrant some pre-season discussion.
Shifflett figures to be drafted on the basis on one tool: plus-plus speed. You can be limited in all other areas of the game, but you’ve got as good a shot as anybody on draft day if you have a legitimate 80 tool to call your own. I don’t think Shifflett will ever hit enough to put his speed to much use professionally, but between his legs, range, and (fingers crossed) improved patience at the plate, he could have some value as a backup outfielder somewhere, someday. He’s a fun college player to watch, in any event. Gragnani is a long-time favorite who simply hasn’t put it all together for an extended stretch at the college level. He needs at bats, so hopefully he can stay healthy and play at the high level that many – like me – think he can perform.
The duo of JR RHP Austin Young and rJR OF Colin Harrington make up another pair of names worth keeping an eye on. Young is a big guy with good numbers (8.64 K/9 in 33.1 IP) and Harrington has performed well (two years of .400+ OBP) in limited at bats.
2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know
- SO OF Derek Fisher
- SO RHP/3B Nick Howard
- SO OF/1B Mike Papi
- SO C Nate Irving
- SO C Brandon Downes
A big season out of Derek Fisher will get him in the conversation for a very early (top five? top ten?) pick in 2014. He’s good enough in multiple areas – average-ish defender in a corner, average-ish speed, average-ish arm – that his big time power looks even better. He’s not a hulking slugger nor is he a gifted natural hitter who happens to hit for power; he’s just a well-rounded player with the chance to be an above-average player in an outfield corner.
SO OF/1B Mike Papi and SO RHP/3B Nick Howard aren’t on the same level as Fisher as prospects, but they aren’t all that far behind. If Papi continues to prove himself athletic enough to handle an outfield corner, his stock will continue to rise. Howard’s future is still largely to be determined as many talent evaluators remain split on whether or not he’ll wind up as a hitter or a pitcher. Virginia is lucky to have a pair of talented catchers coming off admirable first year performances in SO C Brandon Downes and SO C Nate Irving. I think Irving may be the better defender while Downes has more upside at the plate.
I also like SO 2B Branden Cogswell, a middle infielder with an intriguing offensive profile and frame that suggests pop to come. SO INF/C Kenny Towns and SO RHP Barrett O’Neill round out a very strong group of Virginia sophomores.
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2013 MLB Draft Preview: Duke Blue Devils
Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)
- JR RHP Drew Van Orden
- rSO 1B Chris Marconcini
- SR C Jeff Kremer
- JR SS Angelo LaBruna
Van Orden is currently my favorite draft-eligible pitcher on the Duke staff. He has the two-pitch reliever stuff (low-90s FB, low-80s SL), size (6-4, 200 pounds), and strong K-rate (8.47 K/9 in 2012) that gives off that aura of future mid- to late-round middle relief prospect.
Marconcini missed the entire 2012 season after tearing his ACL, but hopes to return strong as a draft-eligible redshirt sophomore. His true sophomore season was a success by any measure (.301/.404/.490) as he showed above-average raw power and the ability to defend his position with relative ease. All caveats about him being locked into first base apply as any hope of him moving positions isn’t all that realistic considering his size (6-5, 230 pounds) and recent injury.
Compared to Marconini, both Kremer and LaBruna give you more in terms of positional value, but neither has quite the same power stick. Kremer has long been a personal favorite due to his approach (66 BB to 51 K the past two seasons) and steady presence behind the plate. His lack of raw power has always limited his upside, but I like him as a late-round organizational catcher prospect. Those who saw LaBruna this summer are convinced he’s primed for a big junior season. With the dearth of quality middle infielders at the college level, the opportunity to rise way up draft boards is certainly there. He does do a lot of those classic utility infielder things well – he’s patient at the plate (more walks than strikeouts in 2012) and possesses a good, versatile glove – but the development of the bat will be the difference between top ten round consideration and a return trip to Durham for a senior season.
I’ve heard reasonably positive things about both JR 3B Jordan Betts and JR C Mike Rosenfeld. I’m not quite ready to hang the draftable tag on either player just yet, but the best guys in their area know their names. I liked SR RHP Chase Bebout a lot at this time last year, but his performance fell off a cliff in his junior season. We all know there’s a lot more to evaluating amateur talent than quickly perusing numbers, but going from a 2011 K/9 of 9.93 to a 2012 K/9 of 4.08 is a Soviet Union sized red flag. I’ve also heard some nice things about JR RHP Robert Huber, which is a nice change of pace considering he’s a barely 6-foot tall righty with less than overwhelming stuff. Again, I wouldn’t call any of this group draftable at this point, but they do qualify as names to know just in case.
2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know
- SO RHP Andrew Istler
If we ignored draft year, Istler would rank atop these rankings. He’s Duke’s best prospect and a really exciting follow for the next two seasons. What he lacks in size (5-11, 170 pounds), he makes up for with above-average stuff (FB, SL, CU could all be average or better in time), rapidly improving command, and ample athleticism. His numbers last year (6.23 K/9 | 1.56 BB/9 | 3.44 FIP | 52 IP) were quite impressive for a freshman in the ACC. Other 2014 arms of varying intrigue include SO LHP Remy Janco, SO RHP Sarkis Ohanian, SO RHP Nick Piscotty, and, the favorite of the bunch, SO LHP Trent Swart.
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The Baseball Draft Report 