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Categorizing Potential Mid-Round College Outfield Draft Targets
Ugly personal confession time! I write something for the site with the intent of posting every weekday. A quick look back through my archives reveals that there have been many weekdays without posts. What gives? You may not know it by some of the so-so stuff that does get posted here, but I am a major league perfectionist.
Regular readers of the site know that I’ve been working on putting together a 2011 college outfielder prospect list. It was one of those projects that seemed like a good idea at the time, but has ultimately left me unsatisfied. Rankings tend to get people really worked up. I can’t deny that my perfectionist streak goes into overdrive as a little bit of paranoia sets in when I think about checking and rechecking whether or not leaving Player X off the list makes sense or if ranking Player Y twenty spots lower than the norm can be justified. Maintaining a website you’d like to update regularly with (hopefully) well reasoned opinions while battling a nasty streak of perfectionism bordering on OCD can be a pain the butt sometimes.
Consider this post a bit of catharsis on my end. Thank you for humoring me, I feel much better now. My “preseason” college outfield rankings are 99% complete, but, and this should come as no shock, I want to give them one last edit before I can publish them. If I don’t publish something soon, however, I know I’ll never get around to it; the rankings will always have one player in the wrong spot that needs to be fixed until eventually I get over it and just hit “publish.” So, this is me just hitting “publish,” for not other reason than me wanting to share some of the information I’ve compiled on the 2011 college outfield class.
Some qualifiers for this list before we begin. First, I only included “lesser known” prospects. Every player listed falls somewhere outside of my personal top 25 college outfielder ranking. Second, the players are not aligned within a group in any particular way, though there could be some patterns — I think I may have inputted most of the names in descending order, for example — that reveal my preferences if you look hard enough. Third, and I can’t stress this one enough, these categories are imperfect. This is all just a quick and easy way of generalizing what kind of scouting profiles the mid-round college outfield class offers. Different teams like different skill sets when they look for reserve outfielders/organizational filler late round picks, and this list is meant to illustrate the strengths of some unappreciated (relatively speaking) draft prospects.
Looking for potential leadoff hitter who can also play, at worst, a capable CF?
Xavier John McCambridge
Marshall Isaac Ballou
Virginia John Barr
Kansas Jason Brunansky
UAB Jamal Austin
Memphis Drew Martinez
Hawaii Collin Bennett
Pacific Brian Humphries
Oregon State Garrett Nash
Western Kentucky Kes Carter
LSU Trey Watkins
Wake Forest Steven Brooks
How about a potential leadoff hitter better suited for an outfield corner?
Stetson Spencer Theisen
If versatility is your thing, one of these prospects could be of interest…
West Virginia Grant Buckner (3B/SS)
Rutgers Brandon Boykin (2B)
UC Irvine Drew Hillman (3B)
San Diego Austin Green (C)
Michigan State Jeff Holm (1B)
Florida State Mike McGee (RHP)
Rice Michael Fuda (2B)
Bats. Plain and simple. Bats. The value of these prospects is tied up almost entirely with the hit tool…
Arizona Steve Selsky
Washington State Derek Jones
Arizona State Andy Workman
Florida State James Ramsey
Connecticut Billy Ferriter
Arizona State Zach Wilson
Arizona State Matt Newman
Stats. For those who are statistically inclined — myself included — these OBP kings will intrigue…
Oral Roberts Nick Baligod
North Carolina State John Gianis
Spencer Theisen
Southern Mississippi Kameron Brunty
Drew Martinez
James Ramsey
Pittsburgh John Schultz
Jeff Holm
Manhattan Mike McCann
Georgia State Mark Micowski
Oral Roberts Brandon King
Mike McGee
Steven Brooks
Fourth outfielder alert! Some teams prefer well-rounded players (around average in all five tools, no real standout abilities) for potential bench roles…
Grant Buckner
John McCambridge
Auburn Justin Fradejas
North Carolina State Brett Williams
South Carolina Adam Matthews
Connecticut John Andreoli
Duke Will Piwnica-Worms
Cornell Brian Billigen
Rutgers Michael Lang
Jeff Holm
Georgetown Rand Ravnaas
For entertainment value, you really can’t beat high upside/high bust potential prospects…
Isaac Ballou
Austin Green
Jason Brunansky
Miami Chris Pelaez
Maryland Matt Marquis
Angelo State Joe Leftridge
Florida State Taiwan Easterling
Southern Rodarrick Jones
Miami Nate Melendres
Minnesota Justin Gominsky
Maine Taylor Lewis
Stephen F. Austin State Bryson Myles
Arkansas Jarrod McKinney
Brian Humphries
Northern Colorado Jarod Berggren
Garrett Nash
Kes Carter
Vanderbilt Joe Loftus
Illinois Willie Argo
Washington Caleb Brown
Missouri Ryan Gebhart
Florida International Pablo Bermudez
Just give these guys a few reps with good minor league coaching and they’ll be plus CF gloves in no time…
John Barr
Texas Christian Aaron Schultz
Jamal Austin
Drew Martinez
Nate Melendres
Garrett Nash
Trey Watkins
Arguably the easiest tool to judge: speed. These players have it…
John Barr
Brandon Boykin
Justin Fradejas
Jason Brunansky
Aaron Schultz
Jamal Austin
Florida Tyler Thompson
Drew Martinez
Rodarrick Jones
Oklahoma Chris Ellison
Nate Melendres
Billy Ferriter
Garrett Nash
Trey Watkins
Willie Argo
Caleb Brown
Cal Poly Bobby Crocker
UNC Wilmington Andrew Cain
Steven Brooks
Michael Fuda
Adam Matthews
Above-average raw power upside is one of the rarer commodities in college ball, but these players are all big time college thumpers…
Mississippi Matt Smith
Mississippi Zach Kirksey
Shippensburg Cody Kulp
Sam Houston State Mark Hudson
Gonzaga Royce Bollinger
Coastal Carolina Daniel Bowman
Fresno State Dusty Robinson
Andrew Cain
McNeese State Lee Orr
2011 MLB Draft – First Round Draft Board Guesswork
One of the things I love most about covering the draft is the absurdly high degree of unpredictability throughout the process. The sooner we can all accept that there are literally no certainties when it comes to the draft, the happier we will all be. It may sound corny, but I’ve long believed that sometimes the only thing you can count on is knowing that you can’t really count on anything. Remember how clever it was to say Anthony Rendon was a much better prospect than Bryce Harper? Now some are coming up with ways to push him to the 9th overall selection, a spot in the draft that conveniently belongs to a team with a gigantic fan base from a major market that just so happens to also have a really strong internet presence. Sorry, I try not to ever say a bad word about any of the experts but that seemed like a pretty egregious traffic grab to me. Anyway, for a more recent example of draft craziness, think back to last weekend. Which player was everybody excited about? Gerrit Cole, of course. This weekend, it seems like it has been all Anthony Meo, all the time. Matt Purke was once as close to a sure thing to go in the top five as anybody, but now the experts claim his stock is down across the board. What in the world is going on?
Minus the Rendon silliness, this is all great news. Well, maybe it isn’t particularly great for Matt Purke, but it is great for any outsider observer of the draft. From summer ball to winter showcases all the way up to live competitive baseball in the spring, the rankings and prospect lists expand and evolve. We’re currently in the midst of a pretty interesting shakeup atop draft boards around the league. In an effort to make some sense of the ever-shifting landscape, here is one man’s take, three months out, of what a 2011 first round draft board might look like:
The Locks
C: Blake Swihart (Cleveland HS, NM)
1B:
2B:
SS: Francisco Lindor (Montverde Academy, FL)
3B: Anthony Rendon (Rice)
OF: George Springer (Connecticut) – Jackie Bradley (South Carolina) – Bubba Starling (Gardner-Edgerton HS, KS)
LHP: Matt Purke (TCU) – Jed Bradley (Georgia Tech) – Danny Hultzen (Virginia) – Daniel Norris (Science Hill HS, TN)
RHP: Gerrit Cole (UCLA) – Taylor Jungmann (Texas) – Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt) – Trevor Bauer (UCLA) – Matt Barnes (Connecticut) – Archie Bradley (Broken Arrow HS, OK)
I’d have a really hard time picking out one player that I thought could drop out of this list. I won’t deny that is at least partly because I played it very conservatively here — only five high schoolers — but it is also because the top of this draft has a really unique blend of high upside, high floor talents. Take Lindor and Bauer as two examples of this. If say, Lindor’s bat doesn’t develop quite as expected or Bauer’s quirky approach to pitching turns some teams off, then each player has enough of an unquestionably interesting skill set (Lindor’s plus glove and Bauer’s minimum two plus pitches) to at least warrant consideration later in the first. Outside of injury, there just isn’t a lot that could depress the draft stock of any player on the list.
That’s 16 prospects that I consider safely within the 2011 draft’s first round, leaving us with 17 more spots to fill. Let’s keep some semblance of symmetry going and knock out 16 more.
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Very Good Bets
C: Andrew Susac (Oregon State)
1B:
2B: Kolten Wong (Hawaii)
SS: Phillip Evans (La Costa Canyon HS, CA)
3B:
OF: Brian Goodwin (Miami-Dade CC) – Mikie Mahtook (LSU) – Josh Bell (Jesuit College Prep School of Dallas, TX) – Travis Harrison (Tustin HS, CA)
LHP: Tyler Anderson (Oregon) – Josh Osich (Oregon State) – Henry Owens (Edison HS, CA)
RHP: John Stilson (Texas A&M) – Alex Meyer (Kentucky) – Anthony Meo (Coastal Carolina) – Dylan Bundy (Owasso HS, OK) – Jose Fernandez (Alonso HS, FL) – Taylor Guerrieri (Spring Valley HS, SC)
I’d actually be pretty surprised if Susac, now the clear frontrunner for first college catcher off the board, wasn’t a first rounder on the majority of draft boards as of this moment, but I’m playing it safe and keeping him here. I’d also be surprised if only one high school middle infielder gets selected in the first in what looks like a pretty strong year for the position. Evans is my favorite at the moment, but the exercise still works even if he is subbed out for your top remaining shortstop of choice. Travis Harrison reminds me a little bit of Nick Castellanos, at least in terms of prospect stock, so it will be interesting to see if he follows the expected 2010 first rounder out of the top round or if he keeps hitting enough (and/or keeps his bonus demands down low enough) to stay within the first 33 choices. Osich is the most interesting name on the pitching side. It isn’t every day that a college arm is projected to sneak into the first round without having thrown a breaking ball going into the last full week of March, but Osich’s big velocity and dedicated return from Tommy John surgery gives him a good amount of much deserved leeway. I don’t necessarily think Stilson, Meyer, and Meo are “very good bets,” but I’ve heard each name talked about by one particular club official as potential quick moving professional bullpen conversion candidates. Said official surmised a team picking near the back of the first round — perhaps a team with a record setting number of early picks looking to save a little cash while upgrading a potentially leaky relieving corps at the same time? — could jump on the chance to take any one of the three.
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Final Four
2B: Levi Michael (North Carolina)
3B: Jason Esposito (Vanderbilt)
OF: Derek Fisher (Cedar Crest HS, PA)
RHP: Carson Smith (Texas State)
I’m cheating here and giving four names, but only because I’ve heard each name mentioned specifically of being of heavy interest to a handful of teams picking in the latter half of the first round. I feel bad passing along information like that without being able to give a solid source, so don’t feel bad about thinking I’m full of it and not believing me. If I was reading this instead of writing it, I might not believe it either. Heck, I’m writing it and I’m not 100% believing it. When we look back at this list and see how wrong it was in June, put me down as believing Fisher will be the 33rd first rounder out of this group.
2011 MLB Draft: The Other Cole’s
Gerrit Cole isn’t the only Cole expected to get drafted this June. Probably goes without saying that Gerrit is the most promising Cole, but there are three other collegiate Cole’s with mid-round, middle relief upside worth mentioning.
Texas SR RHP Cole Green is the best current pitcher of our Cole trio. His fastball sits consistently between 88-91 FB and he can muscle it up to 92-93 on the rarest of occasions. His biggest strengths are his pinpoint fastball command, plus control, and much improved above-average upper-70s slider that flashes plus. Throw in the fact he is a short righthanded pitcher and it sure sounds like Green will be typecast as a potential relief candidate, right? Short righties who pound the strike zone with that sinker/slider combo always have a chance to fill a bullpen niche in the pros. Then again, Green’s success as a college starter and the improvement of his changeup could help him work as a pro starter. Whether a pro team considers him a potential fifth starter or, more likely, a middle reliever, it is still highly unlikely he’ll approach his 2010 draft status (4th round to Detroit). Lastly, and take this for what it’s worth, every scouting report on Green mentions his reputation as a groundball pitcher, but the data I’ve compiled doesn’t fit that description at all. Wonder what the guys at College Splits would say to that?
BYU SO RHP Taylor Cole has the biggest fastball of the group (94-95 peak) and was the most heavily recruited out of high school. Lost development time has left him with not little besides that big fastball, but there is some promise with both his slider and changeup. A team will have to be really patient with Cole, but his upside, relatively fresh arm, and the unique path he’s taken since graduating from high school all help him stand out amongst his mid-round contemporaries. I know Taylor is a personal favorite of many followers of the draft, so don’t be shocked if his name starts getting bandied about as a high rising helium guy heading into June.
Notre Dame SR RHP Cole Johnson has a fastball that sits 88-92 FB and a good SL. Average fastball (maybe a tick above) and a good secondary pitch combined with a history of strong performance at a well known college program is often a pretty nice recipe for looks as a reliever on draft day. Johnson has the first two things down, but is still working on that pesky bit about having a history of strong performance. Underwhelming college stats to date (2010: 5.46 K/9 – 3.16 BB/9 – 4.69 FIP – 31.1 IP) have kept his stock down, but his solid start in 2011 could get teams back on the bandwagon.
Gerrit Cole: 2011 MLB Draft First Overall Pick?
I apologize for starting the week with a math problem, but…
Really busy baseball watching weekend +
Blue Screen of Death seconds before I hit post +
stupidly trying to type a post directly on site and not in Word doc +
Wordpress autosave feature not quite living up to my misguided hopes =
A really quick uncut summation of what I’ve seen out of Anthony Rendon’s biggest competitor for the draft’s number one spot, UCLA JR RHP Gerrit Cole. This is a rare case where I can combine all sorts of fun factors (video, three separate years of live personal “scouting,” and, as always, all of the written and spoken information from people way smarter than I am about this stuff that I could possibly digest) into formulating an opinion on a prospect. Here’s what I’ve got…
UCLA JR RHP Gerrit Cole (2011): 4-seam: really easy 92-96 four-seam FB, 97-99 FB peak; 98 on last pitch of opening day complete game; told by scout that he is unique in that he appears to hit 98 “whenever he wants” with FB; between velocity, movement, and improved command, the FB is a legit plus-plus pitch; speaking of command…relatively poor FB command through middle of sophomore season, but the improvement in this area has been nothing short of remarkable; holds velocity exceptionally well; 2-seam: 92-94 two-seam FB with above-average sink; Cutter: not personally 100% sold on the difference between the two-seam and the cutter (remember: I’m no professional, just a guy with a hobby), but enough smart people are labeling the pitch as a cut fastball at 87-91; Slider: plus 81-87 SL (more commonly and more effectively thrown harder at 86-88); was clocked harder still (consistently 87-89) on SL this past summer; Change: personal favorite offering is his excellent sinking extra firm 83-87 (!) CU with plus upside; pitch seems to get better with every outing;
By now regular readers know that I love forcing comps where they don’t necessarily belong. In the unlikely scenario I am ever forced to give a comp for Gerrit Cole or be forced to watch Miguel Cairo swing at the first pitch in what seemed like every single at bat during his Phillies tenure on loop, I’d throw this one out there as a potential ceiling: potential future teammate Felix Hernandez. Both have/had explosive fastballs, plus upside with unusually hard slider and changeup, similar enough builds (this one might be a stretch…), early questions about command and delivery…obviously this isn’t a perfect comp, but it is a rough outline of what kind of package Cole will bring to whatever pro team is lucky enough to draft him.
5 College Baseball Box Scores of Interest (Weekend of 3/4/11)
I can’t really remember what made this particular box score stand out, but I must have copied and pasted it into a Word document for a reason. Could it be the 0-4 leadoff performance of the Mick Doyle, also known as college baseball’s best name to university fit? Perhaps. Or it could have been the good pitching matchup between Cole Johnson and Tyler Mizenko that lived up to the billing. Johnson’s talent (slightly above-average fastball and good slider) has too often surpassed his performance on the field. A big senior season could put him in line to be one of the top mid-round senior signs. Then again, and I realize I’m taking this whole “2011 college class has potential to be historically great” thing too far, this could be a historically great group of college pitching senior signs. Off the top of my head (or a Ctrl + F of “SR” of my 2011 college pitching Word doc), the 2011 group of senior sign pitching includes a whole boat load of potential big league middle relievers like Scott Matyas, Tyler Wilson, Brett Harman, Randy Fontanez, Patrick Johnson, Corey Pappel, Thomas Girdwood, TJ Walz, Steven Maxwell, Taylor Hill, Cole Green, Michael Rocha, James Nygren, Tim Kelley, Ryan Woolley, Rick Anton, Brian Dupra, Elliott Glynn, Kevin Jacob, Nick Fleece…the list goes on and on. Mizenko, on the other hand, is a damn fine junior prospect who has struggled with his stuff in the early going. His fastball velocity has been down and his typically sharp slider hasn’t been, well, sharp. I still like Mizenko’s upside as a potential three-pitch starting pitcher.
Villanova ace JR RHP Kyle McMyne is a personal favorite, so I’m always interested to see how he does against quality lineups. Wilmington’s lineup certainly qualifies, especially leadoff hitter Cameron Cockman and three-hole batter Andrew Cain. McMyne, one of the most consistent high velocity arms in the 2011 draft pool, delivered with a strong 7 inning, 10 strikeout outing good enough to get him the win. I’ll hopefully be seeing a lot of McMyne this spring, so expect a few firsthand accounts if all goes according to plan.
It was hard to pick one game out of the big Stanford-Texas. Then I figured, since this is college baseball after all, just go with the Friday night game. You know Taylor Jungmann is a good prospect when the biggest, and arguably only, question about his game focuses on his workload rather than his stuff or performance. The difference between Jungmann and Matt Purke is so minute that it really wouldn’t be a surprise to see team’s prefer the fresher arm (Purke) over the arm that has been “Augied.” We’ll see. Also, weird that a pitcher with Mark Appel’s stuff could ever go 7.1 innings pitched with only 2 strikeouts.
Mentioned it earlier, but it bears repeating: Trevor Bauer struck out 17 (!) batters in 10 (!) innings. Despite Bauer’s gem, UCLA still managed a way to lose. I wish I had mentioned this before the season started and the UCLA bats went cold, but the Bruins’ lineup is really underwhelming from a prospect standpoint. At first I thought my concerns about the their offense wouldn’t impact the 2011 team from a performance standpoint; certain college programs can be built on quality college hitters just doing enough to win behind excellent pitching and be quite successful. Now I’m officially worried that the lack of offense could hurt UCLA’s on-field bottom line. Outside of a solid prospect outfield (Keefer, Amaral, Gelalich, and Allen), there isn’t a lot of pro upside there.
59 batters stepped to the plate…only 10 reached base. Ground ball machine Hudson Randall (65% of his non-K outs recorded via the grounder) was particularly great on the mound (7 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 5 K).
Three More Quick Thoughts on College Baseball’s Third Weekend
1. The elite college pitching is really hard to keep up with. On Friday night, the trio of Andrew Chafin (10 K’s), Gerrit Cole (8), and Tyler Anderson (14) combined to total 24 innings of shutout, 9-hit baseball between them. Not to be outdone, Sonny Gray (9 IP 3 H 1 ER 0 BB 15 K) and Danny Hultzen (7 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 11 K) also dominated in their Friday night matchups. Hultzen, the early favorite for the Golden Spikes Award, helped himself at the plate and on the base paths yet again, this time by walking three times and stealing two bases. On the year he has allowed 9 base runners in 20.2 innings on the mound while reaching base twice as often (13 hits and 5 walks in just over 40 plate appearances) at the plate. On the other end of the spectrum, it was disappointing to see Nick Tropeano struggle a little bit on the big stage against North Carolina, but, in what could be definitely be considered a silver lining (or grasping for straws at a really tiny sample size), he did manage to keep UNC’s best hitter Levi Michael quiet. Also disappointed to see Taylor Jungmann throw 120 pitches. I’ve been hesitant to downgrade Jungmann, but, in a year with so many premium college arms tightly bunched at the top, it isn’t outside the realm of possibility to see Jungmann dip below similarly, or in some cases slightly less, talented arms with more favorable college usage patterns.
2. Remember Player A from Friday? The guy who fit the following description: potential plus hit tool; line drive machine; gap power upside; leadoff man profile with above-average speed and good plate discipline; solid defender in CF; average at best throwing arm that grades out higher in terms of accuracy than strength; good track record with wood; great athlete with a pro body; 6-2, 175 pounds? That guy? His line for the weekend (6-9, BB, 2 RBI, 3 R, 2 SB, K) fit in nicely with his scouting report. 6 hits, all singles. Player B, meanwhile, was described like this: great physical strength; plus raw power; plus bat speed; average speed; average arm; good range in a corner; pitch recognition, or lack thereof, could make or break him; 6-2, 195 pounds. His line (7-12, 2 HR, 3B, 2B, BB, 6 RBI, 4 R, 2 SB, K) was also in line with the scouting reports (especially the power outburst), except with improved plate discipline. All in all, good weekends for both Johnny Ruettiger and Jason Coats.
3. No rhyme or reason behind the methodology of choosing players for this list, other than the desire of wanting to spotlight batting lines that intrigued me enough to jot down. As a draft-eligible sophomore coming off of an uninspiring freshman campaign, Andrew Susac was a prime “wait and see” player for me heading into 2011. It is still early, but, man, it is easy to like what the guy has done so far. All stats are from the weekend of 3/4 to 3/6…
- Oregon State SO C Andrew Susac (7-13, 2 HR, 2 2B, 4 BB, 8 RBI, 9 R)
- Bethune Cookman JR C Peter O’Brien (6-11, 2 HR, 2B, 6 RBI, 4 R, K)
- Connecticut JR SS Nick Ahmed (4-5, HR, BB, RBI, 3 R, 2 SB on Saturday followed by 0-4 on Sunday)
- St. John’s JR SS Joe Panik (7-11, 2B, 4 BB, 4 RBI, 7 R, 2 SB, K)
- Virginia JR LHP/1B Danny Hultzen (2-4, 3B, 4 BB, 2 RBI, 2 R, 2 SB)
- LSU JR OF Mikie Mahtook (3-9, HR, 2B, 4 BB, RBI, 5 R, 3 SB, 2 K)
- Oregon State SO OF Garrett Nash (5-12, 2B, 2 BB, 4 RBI, 9 R, 3 HBP, 2 SB, K)
- Rice JR OF Jeremy Rathjen (4-12, 2 2B, BB, 3 RBI, SB, K)
Another draft-eligible Oregon State sophomore is primed to rise up draft boards if he can keep stringing together weekends like this past weekend’s. The biggest questions Nash needed to answer this spring surrounded his hit tool and the early returns, from a scouting perspective anyway, are positive enough. The big weekend only brought his season line up to .200/.409/.233, but the plus-plus speed and potential for plus defense in center remain strong points in his favor.
Three Quick Thoughts on College Baseball’s Third Weekend
1. In what will almost certainly not become a regular weekly feature, here’s this past weekend’s weirdest inning:
UAB 2nd – M. Busby grounded out to 2b. R. Ussery grounded out to ss. K. DePew tripled to right center. J. German hit by pitch. J. German advanced to second on the error; K. DePew scored on an error by c, failed pickoff attempt. C. Arrowood singled to center field, RBI; J. German scored. C. Arrowood stole second. J. Austin walked. N. Crawford singled to shortstop; J. Austin advanced to second; C. Arrowood advanced to third. J. Frost singled to shortstop, RBI; N. Crawford advanced to second; J. Austin advanced to third; C. Arrowood scored. P. Palmeiro doubled to right center, 3 RBI; J. Frost scored; N. Crawford scored; J. Austin scored. M. Busby struck out looking. 6 runs, 5 hits, 1 error, 1 LOB.
All I wanted to do was check in and see how Ryan Woolley and Jamal Austin performed, but, damn, this mess of an inning captivated my attention. Cleveland State managed to get the first two outs on routine ground balls (ED NOTE: no clue if the grounders were in fact routine, but allow me to flex a little creative license here) until all heck broke loose. In order, Cleveland State allowed the following before ending the inning with a strikeout: 3B – HBP – E – 1B – SB – BB – 1B – 1B – 2B. It wasn’t all fun and games for UAB, at least not for JR DH Michael Busby. As astute readers may have already noticed, one M. Busby bookended the 6 run, 5 hit inning by making outs.
2. Hard to believe, but Indiana State RHP Jason Van Skike’s no-hitter was not the most dominant pitching performance of the weekend. In fact, Van Skike’s no-hitter wasn’t even the headlining athletic event of the Indiana State weekend. Great as Van Skike’s performance was, it’s awful hard to top the basketball team winning a conference title and sewing up the school’s first NCAA tournament birth in ten years. Also really hard to top what UCLA JR RHP Trevor Bauer did on Saturday. Lines like Bauer’s (10 IP 4 H 1 ER 5 BB 17 K) just don’t come around every weekend. According to the numbers whizzes at College Splits, Bauer’s Game Score of 92 topped Van Skike’s of 84. According to me, 10 innings and 17 strikeouts are both eye-popping numbers.
3. Maybe it is because I’m almost ready to wrap up my three week odyssey of ranking the best 2011 college outfield prospects (coming later this week!), but, when looking at box scores this weekend, something about the hitting lines of outfielders kept jumping out at me. Arguably the best weekend for any college outfield prospect belonged to Central Florida’s 2011 draft-eligible true sophomore Ronnie Richardson. His weekend (7-13, 3B, 2B, BB, 3 RBI, 4 R, K, 2 SB) bumped his season numbers up to .409/.518/.591 with twice as many walks as strikeouts (10 BB/5 K) and 4 stolen bases in 6 tries. I’m extremely bullish on Richardson, a prospect I consider a rich man’s LeVon Washington. To use that comparison as a means of comparing the relative strengths of the 2010 and 2011 drafts (stay with me here), Washington (a prospect I was and am down on) ranked 11th among college outfielders in 2010. Richardson, a prospect I think I like more than most, will probably wind up somewhere between 15th and 25th on my 2011 outfield list. Crazy.
Top Ten College Outfielders and Mystery Prospect Comparison
My goal is to have the complete list of college outfield prospect rankings out by next week, but for now here is a quick look at how the top ten will probably shake out. There might be some movement within each tier, but I’m pretty happy with the players that make up each grouping.
- Tier 1: Connecticut JR OF George Springer – South Carolina JR OF Jackie Bradley – Miami-Dade CC SO OF Brian Goodwin
- Tier 2: Louisiana State JR OF Mikie Mahtook – Kansas State JR OF Nick Martini – Alabama JR OF Taylor Dugas
- Tier 3: Valparaiso JR OF Kyle Gaedele – Texas SO OF Cohl Walla – Clemson JR OF Will Lamb – Indiana JR OF Alex Dickerson
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I’m also trying to get back into the habit of doing more organic writing here on the site. I love putting together rankings because it gives me the opportunity to research and compile notes on hundreds of prospects from around the country, but, let’s be honest, rankings alone don’t make for interesting reading. Because I’ve spent weeks immersed in the world of college outfielders, what better way to start my stream of consciousness ramblings than with a quick mystery player comparison between two highly regarded college outfield prospects? I like this particular comparison because the two prospects are so different stylistically, yet similarly rated by many. I also like the comparison because both players seem to really understand their own strengths and weaknesses really well and, subsequently, do what they do well really, really well.
- Player A: potential plus hit tool; line drive machine; gap power upside; leadoff man profile with above-average speed and good plate discipline; solid defender in CF; average at best throwing arm that grades out higher in terms of accuracy than strength; good track record with wood; great athlete with a pro body; 6-2, 175 pounds
Half Glass Full: Capable center fielder and irritating (to the opposition, naturally) leadoff man with double digit home run pop
Half Glass Empty: Modest power upside fails to manifest professionally; as a result, overall hit tool and plate discipline suffer against professional pitching
- Player B: great physical strength; plus raw power; plus bat speed; average speed; average arm; good range in a corner; pitch recognition, or lack thereof, could make or break him; 6-2, 195 pounds
Half Glass Full: Pitch recognition and overall approach at plate improves to the point his plus power allows him blossom as an above-average everyday corner outfielder
Half Glass Empty: Awesome power goes to waste as 4A slugger due to Jeff Francoeur-level plate discipline
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1. Can you guess the prospects? Neither are listed in the top ten above, by the way…
2. Which prospect do you prefer? Speed, defense, and patience? Or brute strength and plus raw power?
3. Forced to choose, would you rather have tiger’s blood or Adonis DNA? There is only one correct answer to this one…
College Outfielders
Things have been relatively quiet around here of late because, genius that I am, I decided to leave the largest player groupings — outfield and pitching — as the last set of 2011 college prospect rankings. I’m going on two solid weeks right now of configuring just the outfield list and I’m happy to finally announce the rankings will be published shortly. In the meantime, some quick figures that show just how crazy it is paring down the crowded college outfield player pool…
- Current Word Document size: 5,740 words, or 18 pages in size 14 font (nice and big so I can view three pages at once at 50% zoom)
- Current number of players listed: 225, not counting the handful of junior college/small school guys I need more info on
Meta-posts like this where I talk about how much work I’ve been putting in on a ranking without actually delivering any worthwhile content are extremely obnoxious. I’m sorry. To begin to make amends, here’s an extremely (extremely) unfinished look at the prospects that rank at certain random benchmark spots on the list. I’ll use the numbers retired by the Detroit Lions (7, 20, 22, 37, 56, 85) to serve this purpose. In order, a special thanks to Dutch Clark, Barry Sanders, Bobby Layne, Doak Walker, Joe Schmidt, and Chuck Hughes for apparently being so damn good at football.
7. Clemson JR OF Will Lamb
20. TCU JR OF Brance Rivera
22. Miami SO OF Zeke DeVoss
37. Western Kentucky JR OF Kes Carter
56. Southern JR OF Rodarrick Jones
85. Stetson JR OF Spencer Theisen
Batted Ball Data 2011
Requirements for this are super simple: 1) pitchers must be eligible for the 2011 MLB Draft, 2) pitchers must have allowed 15 batted balls in play, 3) pitchers must either be above or below my arbitrarily decided upon standards (over 75% ground ball percentage, under 40% ground ball percentage). It should also be noted that it has only been two weeks, so, really, we’re going on about as little meaningful data as possible here. First, the ground ball machines…
Arizona JR RHP Kyle Simon: 92.0%
Texas A&M JR RHP John Stilson: 91.3%
Oregon State JR RHP Sam Gaviglio: 80.8%
Villanova JR RHP Kyle McMyne: 77.8%
Connecticut SR LHP Elliot Glynn: 77.3%
Oregon JR RHP Madison Boer: 75.0%
UAB SR RHP Ryan Woolley: 75.0%
Simon and Stilson have combined for 44 ground balls out of 48 batted ball outs. That’s crazy. Stilson’s power stuff has gotten plenty of pub, but Simon’s underrated grounder-inducing repertoire (plus fastball movement, good splitter, much improved slider) should have him moving up draft boards this spring. Extra credit for the lefthanded Glynn cracking the list.
UCLA JR RHP Gerrit Cole: 38.1%
Alabama JR LHP Adam Morgan: 31.3%
North Carolina SR RHP Patrick Johnson: 30.0%
North Carolina State JR RHP Cory Mazzoni: 29.6%
I have no explanation why Cole doesn’t get more ground ball outs. Going off memory, I’m pretty sure he had a very low ground ball percentage last year as well.
Quick Statistical Look at 2011 MLB Draft Pitching Prospects
In absolutely no particular order, 2011 draft prospects that finished last season with over 10 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, minimum 50 total innings pitched. For reference’s sake, prospects expected to go in the top three rounds are in bold…
Kentucky JR RHP Alex Meyer
Missouri State JR RHP Dan Kickham
Cal State Fullerton JR RHP Noe Ramirez
Virginia SR RHP Tyler Wilson
Maryland SR RHP Brett Harman
Vanderbilt JR RHP Sonny Gray
Texas A&M JR RHP John Stilson
Texas JR RHP Taylor Jungmann
Baylor JR RHP Logan Verrett
UCLA JR RHP Gerrit Cole
UCLA JR RHP Trevor Bauer
Washington JR RHP Andrew Kittredge
Georgia Tech JR LHP Jed Bradley
Virginia JR LHP/1B Danny Hultzen
Mississippi JR LHP Matt Crouse
Stanford JR LHP Brett Mooneyham
Arizona State JR LHP Mitchell Lambson
TCU SO LHP Matt Purke
Northeastern JR LHP Andrew Leenhouts
Best Bats of College Baseball’s Opening Weekend (2/18/11 to 2/20/11)
1. Arguably the biggest story to come out of college baseball’s opening weekend (from a prospect standpoint…and before news of Stanford JR LHP Brett Mooneyham’s season-ending finger injury came to the surface) centered on the decision to have Vanderbilt JR 3B Jason Esposito play shortstop. Bigger still, he went out and played it well. Fun question of the day: if Esposito can show to scouts that he can at least play a league average big league shortstop, then he’ll go [fill-in-the-blank] in the 2011 MLB Draft. Top half of the first round, no doubt…right? Top ten? Higher? I know Ryan Zimmerman is the name often thrown around when talking Rice JR 3B Anthony Rendon, but I think it is a really natural comparison for Esposito.
2. Other notable position “switches”: LSU 3B FR JaCoby Jones played 2B, Tulane JR C Jeremy Schaffer played 3B (a spot where he has some prior experience), and Washington SR 1B Troy Scott played 3B (ditto). Schaffer and Scott are mid-round guys here in 2011, but Jones has first round upside in 2013. I want to sit down and do preliminary rankings for 2012 and 2013 sometime before this June. In a vacuum, Jones has top ten potential, but I’ll need to see where he stacks up in what looks to be a strong 2013 draft class.
3. The LSU staff has three years to move JaCoby Jones around the infield, and, as mentioned, Schaffer and Scott are mid-round guys at best. That leaves the position switch with the most immediate and significant draft prospect consequence as the move of Utah JR C CJ Cron playing first base all weekend long. The switch was not entirely unexpected – Cron’s defense behind the plate has never been his strong suit, plus he has played 1B for the Utes in the past – but the buzz surrounding it makes it seem less and less likely that Cron will don the tools of ignorance much at all in 2011.
A few completely random interesting hitting lines of the weekend, complete with equally random commentary…
College of Charleston JR “C” Rob Kral (2011): 667/714/778 (6-9, 2B, RBI, 5 R, 4 BB/0 K)
- Kral may not be a catcher professionally, but, man, can he hit. Great patience and great power typically leads to great things…
North Carolina State JR C Pratt Maynard (2011): 538/571/692 (7-13, 2 2B, 5 RBI, 3 R)
Mississippi SR C Miles Hamblin (2011): 444/643/778 (4-9, HR, 4 RBI, 4 R, 3 BB/3 K, 3/3 SB)
Oklahoma SO 2B Max White (2012): 467/556/667 (7-15, 3 2B, 6 R, 4 RBI, 3 HBP, 1/1 SB)
- As great as that line looks, White’s defense at second drew the most praise over the weekend. Pretty amazing considering White is a converted outfield learning the position as he goes.
Tennessee JR 2B Khayyan Norfork (2011): 556/667/1.222 (5-9, HR, 3B, 2B, 4 RBI, 3 R, 1/2 SB)
- I ignored all of the positive buzz coming out of Tennessee’s fall/winter practices and, even though it has only been one weekend, I regret it. I did say this: “Khayyan Norfork might just be the player primed to make the biggest rise up draft boards of the players listed.” Really nice blend of speed, pop, and defense…
Florida SO SS Nolan Fontana (2012): 750/786/833 (9-12, 2B, 5 R, 2 HBP, K, 1/1 SB)
Clemson JR SS Brad Miller (2011): 375/643/375 (3-8, 5 R, 2 RBI, 6 BB/0 K, 4/4 SB)
- Didn’t have the power numbers of many players on the list, but easy to love that BB/K ratio.
Texas Tech JR SS Kelby Tomlinson (2011): 583/667/583 (7-12, 6 RBI, 3 R, 5 BB/1 K, 5/6 SB)
Arizona State JR 3B Riccio Torrez (2011): 462/462/1.231 (6-13, 3 HR, 2B, 7 RBI, 4 R, 2-2 SB)
Oklahoma JR 3B Garrett Buechele (2011): 625/700/1.188 (10-16, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 4 R)
Texas A&M JR 3B Matt Juengel (2011): 455/500/1.364 (5-11, 2 HR, 2 3B, 7 RBI, 5 R)
- More evidence that shows how deep this year’s group of college third basemen is; Torrez was ranked 7th, Buechele was ranked 15th, and Juengel was 23rd.
Texas FR 3B Erich Weiss (2013): 818/824/1.273 (9-11, 2 3B, 2B, 7 RBI, 6 R, 5 BB/0 K, 1/1 SB)
Southern Carolina JR OF Jackie Bradley (2011): 583/615/1.083 (7-12, HR, 3 2B, 3 RBI, 4 R)
UAB JR OF Jamal Austin (2011): 462/462/538 (6-13, 2B, RBI, 2 R, 3/4 SB)
Kent State SR OF Ben Klafczynski (2011): 538/571/538 (7-13, RBI, 2 R)
Stanford FR OF Austin Wilson (2013): 500/500/750 (6-12, HR, 4 RBI, R, 1/1 SB)
- With the first pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, the New York Yankees select…
LSU JR OF Mikie Mahtook (2011): 444/545/1.778 (4-9, 4 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R)
- I tried to limit the list to one player per college, but leaving fellow Tigers JaCoby Jones and Tyler Hanover off pained me greatly. Mahtook’s decision to only hit home runs could really pay off this year…
Honorable Mention! Virginia SR C Kenny Swab (2011): 000/571/000 (0-6, 5 R, 6 BB, 2 HBP, 2/2 SB)
Honorable Mention 2.0! Any JMU player. Five different players slugged over 1.100 over the weekend: Tenaglia, Herbek, Foltz, Knight, and Lowery. I was most impressed with SO OF Johnny Bladel’s 533/720/733 (6/3 BB/K and 5/5 SB) line. He’s my very early super sneaky 2012 first round possibility.
Friday Night Lights – College Baseball’s Best Pitching Prospect Performances (2/18/11)
1. I am a long way away from actually finalizing my college pitching rankings, but I’m pretty much locked in on who will sit atop the list. As impressive as Texas Christian SO LHP Matt Purke (4 shutout innings) and Texas JR RHP Taylor Jungmann (9 IP 5 H 0 ER 1 BB 9 K, only 95 pitches) performed, UCLA JR RHP Gerrit Cole (9 IP 4 H 0 ER 1 BB 11 K) is the man. Better believe they’ll be more on him to come over the next few weeks.
2. Texas A&M JR RHP John Stilson was only omitted from the previous entry because he slipped my mind, but, really, the guy belongs in the top college arm discussion with the likes of Cole, Purke, Jungmann, et al. Perhaps it is for the best that the least well known major college pitcher gets his own space, so we can fully appreciate his sustained run of dominance. Stilson’s 2010 season (14 K/9) was the stuff of legend, and his transition to starting on Friday nights (6 IP 3 H 0 ER 1 BB 9 K) has started with a bang. My favorite part of his Friday line: 18 outs recorded, 9 via strikeout, 9 via groundball, 0 fly balls. He’s a starter all the way for me, despite the sentiment that he is too much of a two-pitch thrower to get through the lineup multiple times. I’ve heard too many positive things about both his changeup and his slider to believe differently.
3. Washington State JR LHP Adam Conley opened some eyes by peaking at 95-96 MPH on Friday. My earliest notes on him have him sitting 86-88 with a peak between 90-92. Amazing what some time working with a great college staff can do for a kid. Credit should also be given to Conley (by all accounts a really hard worker), as well as the natural maturation that comes with growing into a sturdy 6-3, 185 pound frame (up 15 pounds from his freshman year).
4. The Cole Hamels’ clones just keep coming. It isn’t just Conley with the mid-90s heat and a plus changeup. Virginia JR LHP Danny Hultzen (check out his Friday night two-way line: 2-4, BB, 3 RBI and, more importantly, 6.2 IP 3 H 1 ER 1 BB 10 K) and Georgia Tech JR LHP Jed Bradley (he pitched Saturday, but I’m cheating to make a point…5.2 IP 4 H 1 ER 2 BB 10 K) both offer outstanding four-pitch arsenals that include that magic mid-90s fastball and plus change combo that I love. Heck, all three of these guys were big favorites before they bumped up their velocity because of the way they reminded me of Vanderbilt’s Mike Minor, one of my favorite draft prospects of the past few years. Here’s what I said about Minor on his draft day, by the way:
LOVE Mike Minor – good enough velocity, plus change, either the curve or the slider will be a plus pitch down the line (I think), great command, very good athlete, smooth delivery, repeatable mechanics, pitched at an outstanding program. This pick will get panned by everybody, but they are wrong – Minor is an absolute keeper. I had him at 18 on my big board, so maybe I’m full of it by saying he was a great pick at 7…but, factoring in signability, it’s a very good, very safe pick.
5. Hultzen may be the best junior two-way player in the land, but Florida SO LHP/1B Brian Johnson has to be tops of the sophomore class. His Friday looked very similar to Hultzen’s: (2-4, 2 2B, RBI, R and 6 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 6 K. Bonus fact: Johnson faced the minimum number of batters in his 2011 debut. Hultzen is a pitcher all the way, but Johnson is seen as talented enough to go either way at this point.
6. Really happy to see Notre Dame SR RHP Brian Dupra healthy and pitching well (7 IP 7 H 2 ER 0 BB 5 K) once again. Dupra looked like a top five round lock heading into his junior year, but injury and ineffectiveness forced him into returning for his senior year in an attempt to reestablish his draft stock. I haven’t heard anything about his stuff on Friday, but if it reached pre-injury levels (mid-90s FB, hard cutter, good low-80s SL), then he could position himself as one of the top college power pitching prospects, as well as easily the most desirable college pitching senior sign.
7. Another interesting draft prospect and college senior, Oklahoma SR RHP Michael Rocha, put on a show this Friday: 7 IP 1 H 0 ER 1 BB 7 K. Rocha doesn’t have near the velocity of Dupra at his best, but thrives on his funky breaking stuff, good command, and high pitching IQ. Rocha’s one-hit performance was matched by Alabama JR LHP Adam Morgan, who put up the following line: 5.1 IP 1 H 0 ER 1 BB 6 K. Unlike the power fastball lefties mentioned above, Morgan instead follows in the footsteps of the more typical, pitchability style of crafty college lefties. The lack of a big fastball stings a little less when you have a plus curve, a pitch that I think ranks in the top ten of its type amongst 2011 college draft prospects.
8. The college pitching in Texas this year is Gottfried Leibniz level deep. Jungmann and Stilson may be the headliners, but fellow Lone Star ballers Texas State JR RHP Carson Smith and Baylor JR RHP Logan Verrett could wind up at the tail end of the first round with big springs. Their respective debuts (Smith: 2 IP 3 H 1 ER 0 BB 4 K; Verrett: 3 IP 6 H 4 ER 1 BB 3 K) weren’t as pretty as I’m sure they would have liked, but both continued to show the first round quality stuff they’ve grown famous for. Smith has the frame (6-5, 220) and a fastball to dream on, while Verrett potential for four above-average pitches is tantalizing.
9. Two of my favorite Conference USA prospects put up unique lines that deserve a little love. Check out the Friday line for Southern Miss SR RHP Todd McInnis: 8 IP 5 H 0 ER 0 BB 7 K. Very good line, right? What makes that performance truly exception, assuming there wasn’t a typo on the box score, is the following: he threw 45 pitches! Is that even possible? At least 21 pitches were thrown to get those 7 strikeouts. That leaves 24 pitches to get the 17 remaining outs. Incredible, if true. The line for Central Florida SR LHP Nick Cicio was impressive, if significantly less rare: 3 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 5 K. That’s an example of how a college lefty straight out of central casting (mid-80s fastball, good change, slurvy breaking pitch) can dominate out of the pen.
10. Think we could all agree that a line of [9 IP 5 H 0 ER 1 BB 8 K] would make for a darn fine outing by any starting pitcher. It also works as a pretty great combined line shared by two legit mid- to late-round 2011 draft prospects. In a performance reminiscent of peak years Legion of Doom, or, my sentimental personal favorite, The Natural Disasters, Wichita State SR RHP Tim Kelley (5 IP 3 H 0 ER 1 BB 6 K) and SO LHP Brian Flynn (4 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 K) tag teamed to shut down the opposition on Friday night. Both pitchers profile best as middle relievers professionally, with Flynn getting more current buzz due to his readymade WWF size and strength (6-8, 240…so big I had to double check on the website to make sure I didn’t copy it wrong in my notes).
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Bonus! Stanford SO RHP and potential 2012 top ten pick Mark Appel (5.2 IP 8 H 2 ER 1 BB 4 K) didn’t quite light the world on fire with his opening night line, but the velocity pickup in his stuff (FB now peaking in the upper-90s, SL now peaking mid-80s) had everybody taking notice. If he can integrate his changeup (plus potential there) more as the season goes on, he’ll head into 2012 on the short list of candidates to go in the top three. Back in February 2009 I had him as the 9th best prep righthander, sandwiched between Daniel Tuttle and Matt Graham. This was his quick writeup:
Appel’s strong verbal commitment to Stanford will drop him down draft boards, but he is a great athlete, with a wiry frame with room to fill out, an impressive hard slider, solid change, and the ability to play around with his fastball (mostly by cutting and sinking it). The Cardinal normally get their man, so Appel’s signability will be something to keep on eye on.
College Baseball’s Opening Day
I think making long-standing emotional investments in teams, players, and coaches is what makes following sports so compelling. Not exactly a ground breaking statement, I’m sure, but it does help set up the following: I prefer to keep my writing limited to the things, like stats, scouting blurbs, and rankings, that I can understand and analyze, and as devoid of subjective emotion as possible. Objectivity at any cost, that’s my goal. To that end, I have no favorite college or high school team. There is no player I prefer to succeed any more than his competitors. My rooting interest in amateur baseball is simple: I root for growth. In my paying gig, I work everyday to help aid in the growth and development of young people. It can be a frustrating daily endeavor because growth and development aren’t always easy to see in real time. The frustration is a small price to pay, however, when weighed against the satisfaction of seeing even the slightest proof of progress. That is what has drawn me to following amateur ballplayers. Every time I see a prospect play is an opportunity to see him get better right in front of my very eyes. That’s what makes opening weekend so great, at least for me. We’re at the start of another season of endless possibilities.
Follow all the action throughout the weekend here and be sure to check in on Tuesday for a weekend recap. Until then, enjoy the start of another year of baseball.
The Baseball Draft Report 