2015 MLB Draft: HS Second Basemen (May Update)
If recent history is any indication, just one high school second baseman should expect to be drafted by a MLB team within the draft’s first ten rounds this June. That’s incredible to me. I guess we know that big league second basemen are made and not born, but it’s still jarring to realize that there isn’t a current qualified second baseman in baseball that was drafted out of HS as a primary second baseman. Of the high school guys, Dee Gordon was a shortstop, Neil Walker was a catcher, Brandon Phillips was a shortstop, and Chris Owings was a shortstop. The rest are all American college/junior college players (many of whom played shortstop collegiately, for what it’s worth) or international free agents. The last group gives us our closest facsimile to a HS 2B with names like Jose Altuve, Robinson Cano, and Rougned Odor popping up. Altuve and Odor are as close to second base only prospects as you’ll find, and Cano ditched shortstop for good in Low-A as a teenager. I’ll go out on a limb and say that there isn’t a Cano or Altuve in this year’s high school second base class — though I did get an Altuve comp (in so much that you can compare anybody to Altuve…) on a prep shortstop to be named later — but I guess it’s within the realm of possibility that there’s a talent like Odor, who I’ve always been lower on than most, lurking somewhere out there.
The top three names on my initial list of high school second base prospects all seem unlikely to play second base over the long haul. Alonzo Jones seems best-suited for center field and Cornelius Randolph looks like a future third baseman. They’ve both been moved to their most likely pro positions in my rankings. Then there’s Kyler Murray, who…wait, never mind. We’ll revisit him in three years. If you remove those three (well, two now) from the second base prospect pile, then you are left with a fairly representative group of what we’ve come to expect from high school second base groups.
There are talented yet flawed prospects here. I don’t know what to make of any of them. Last year’s class had the star power at the top (Forrest Wall) and impressive overall depth that this year’s group appears to be missing. I’m not so sure on that last point because, quite honestly, I don’t know enough about a lot of these players to go into too much detail about the talent level. One of my biggest homework assignments over the next month will be to familiarize myself with these players better.
I think Ethan Paul (Newport HS, Washington) has the best all-around tools package, Pikai Winchester (Iolani HS, Hawaii) has the best hit tool, and Jagger Rusconi (West Ranch HS, California) and Josh White (Rock Canyon HS, Colorado) are among the best runners. I’m intrigued by Chase Fullington (Farragut HS, Tennessee) and Andrew Noviello (Bridgewater-Raynham HS, Massachusetts) because of their pop, as well as Duncan McKinnon (Redondo Union HS, California) for his disciplined approach.
2B Ethan Paul (Newport HS, Washington)
2B Pikai Winchester (Iolani HS, Hawaii)
2B/OF Jagger Rusconi (West Ranch HS, California)
2B/SS Josh White (Rock Canyon HS, Colorado)
2B/OF Chase Fullington (Farragut HS, Tennessee)
2B/SS Charlie Donovan (Westmont HS, Illinois)
2B/RHP Andrew Noviello (Bridgewater-Raynham HS, Massachusetts)
2B Duncan McKinnon (Redondo Union HS, California)
2B Ford Proctor (Monsignor Kelly HS, Texas)
2B Kody Clemens (Memorial HS, Texas)
2B/SS Luke Alexander (Belmond HS, Mississippi)
2B Ezra Steinberg (Harvard-Westlake HS, California)
2B Ethan Lopez (La Mirada HS, California)
2B Cobie Vance (Pine Forest HS, North Carolina)
2015 MLB Draft: HS First Basemen (May Update)
Canadian sluggers who have drawn comparisons to Dan Vogelbach (Perfect Game) and Prince Fielder (everybody) because of a wildly impressive natural gift for hitting, easy plus raw power, and an uncommon body type (not small) tend to get the imagination going. It is very possible – by the odds, almost a certainty – that another player will overtake Naylor at the top of this list by draft season’s end, but, as a player that breaks many of the molds we’ve grown accustomed to as baseball fans, Naylor will remain a favorite.
Everything I said about Josh Naylor (St. Joan of Arc SS, Ontario) back in September applies today. He’s such a fun prospect and very easy to root for. His time on the Canadian Junior National Team has reinforced much of what was seen as good about his game last summer, enough so that I think it’s fair to say he’s beat the odds and will remain the top name on the prep first base rankings for many clubs. There are arguments for others, as you’ll see below, but Naylor’s blend of present ability, upside (young for class), and experience against high-level competition make him the current frontrunner to go off the board first.
You hear so often about that different sound off the bat that certain hitters are able to consistently produce. I’m not entirely sure about the consistent part just yet, but even the amateur amateur scout in me is sold that both Luken Baker (Oak Ridge HS, Texas) and Joe Davis (Bowie HS, Texas) have made that sound. The phrase “hard contact” is in my notes on both guys, repeatedly and enthusiastically (underlined, exclamation points, circled). Both guys have big league power.
Baker is typically listed as a primary righthanded pitcher who moonlights as a hitter, but I prefer him as the hulking slugger with plus to plus-plus raw power that whatever maker created his 6-4, 250 pound frame was hoping he’d turn out to be. I don’t know if he’s fleet of foot enough to handle even faking it as an outfielder over the long haul, but he’s a reasonably good athlete with the kind of plus arm strength you’d expect out of player ranked by most as a potential first-day pitcher.
Davis has a swing geared towards power (slight uppercut, but it looks natural), incredible physical strength (plus to plus-plus if you were to grade it as a tool) to muscle up balls he doesn’t completely get, and a patient approach at the plate. There’s a lot to like about his offensive profile. I’ve tried to think of a better comp for him than Perfect Game’s initial Billy Butler offering, but I think that one is really tough to top. Physically, it just fits. The closest I’ve come to an alternative is Dmitri Young, which I like because I think they share some similarities as hitters but also because Young was an underrated athlete and defender in his younger years. Davis might not have the ideal jeans salesman physique, but he’s lighter on his feet than you’d expect on first sight. That kind of underrated athleticism makes sense since he’s seen as a passable defender at both catcher and third base by some teams.
I ultimately prefer Baker out of the two Texas mashers for a few reasons. Two relatively easy to explain ones: Baker carries his weight better – the extra height helps, but he appeared to be in better shape on top of that – and he has the fallback of stepping back on to a mound where he can fire 88-94 MPH fastballs (95 peak) with a good low-80s breaking ball and interesting low-80s changeup. I also think he has a touch more power upside and is the better all-around athlete.
If pure uncut bat speed is what you’re looking for, then Devin Davis (Valencia HS, California) is your guy. He’s also a really slick defender at first – without too much thought I’d say he’s the best glove out of the top guys listed – with more than enough power to profile as a regular if it all works out. He also has a little bit of growth left (potentially), so an uptick in his existing physical profile, especially in terms of power, remains possible. Projecting high school first base prospects is a dangerous game because out of any HS position group what you see is what you get with the heavy hitters at first, but Davis could have a little bit left in the tank that could help him eventually overtake Naylor or Baker as the best long-term player in this class.
Michael Hickman (Seven Lakes HS, Texas) has comparable bat speed and loads of lefthanded power, so consider him right up there with the top of this class in both categories. Tyrone Perry (Avon Park HS, Florida) has his fans as a big, strong 6-1, 240 pound power-hitting mountain of a man. Brandt Stallings (Kings Ridge Christian HS, Georgia) is a little bit lost in the shuffle as a second-tier prospect at his position and in his loaded home state, but he remains a prospect I’m cool with liking more than most. The swing works, he’s got a loose, athletic build, there’s bat speed, and he’s arguably the best athlete (average or better speed, very fluid movements in all phases of the game) of the first base class. He might be too good an athlete to restrict to first base, but I think that’s his best long-term spot right now. He’s far too well known to be a sleeper, but he’d still be my pick for player who provides the most value relative to his likely draft position in this year’s class.
1B Josh Naylor (St. Joan of Arc SS, Ontario)
1B/RHP Luken Baker (Oak Ridge HS, Texas)
1B Devin Davis (Valencia HS, California)
1B/C Joe Davis (Bowie HS, Texas)
1B/C Michael Hickman (Seven Lakes HS, Texas)
1B/OF Brandt Stallings (Kings Ridge Christian HS, Georgia)
1B Tyrone Perry (Avon Park HS, Florida)
1B Chad Spanberger (Granite City HS, Illinois)
1B Curtis Terry (Archer HS, Georgia)
1B Cade Sorrells (George Walton Academy, Georgia)
1B/3B Kolton Kendrick (Loranger HS, Louisiana)
1B James Monaghan (La Plata HS, Maryland)
1B Chris Gesell (St. Augustine, California)
1B Christian Steele (Lebanon HS, Ohio)
1B/OF Jason Heinrich (River Ridge HS, Florida)
1B Seamus Curran (Agawam HS, Massachusetts)
1B Jaxxon Fagg (Williams Field HS, Arizona)
1B Jacob Corso (Lake Mary HS, Florida)
1B Brennan McKenzie (Walnut HS, California)
1B Nick Patten (IMG Academy, Florida)
High School First Basemen
I really wasn’t planning on doing another “let’s put so and so position in a recent historical draft context” post after hitting the catcher spot on Monday, but when I looked at my high school first board and only saw nineteen (!) names, I had to do a little homework on how prep first basemen have fared over the years. Then I figured that since I was doing the research anyway, why not share it with the world? The fact that it will hopefully be a relatively easy piece in what has turned into an unexpectedly busy real job work week is just a bonus. This is a bit disjointed since it’s as stream of consciousness as I get, so bear with me. Hopefully my fancy underlining will make it a little easier to follow…
Number of HS First Basemen Selected (Number Selected Within Top Ten Rounds)
2014: 12 (3)
2013: 14 (3)
2012: 13 (4)
2011: 15 (5)
2010: 18 (1)
2009: 21 (2)
Average: 15.5 (3)
I say it a lot, but one more time before I stop repeating myself: I use 2009 as a cut-off date because that’s the first year I covered the draft here on this site. Since then, just over 15 high school 1B have been selected in the draft each season. This is an imperfect figure because I’m trying to do this quickly and using the Baseball Reference criteria for who was a first baseman or not at the time of their selection. They went with first base as the position for a pair of Marlins star outfielders, Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich. I’m not sure if that’s how they were announced on the conference call or whatever, but I’ll agree to split the difference and pretend that Yelich thought of as a first baseman at the time. Considering that I had Yelich — one of my all-time biggest whiffs and a mistake that has made me reconsider a lot about what I look for in HS hitters — as a primary first baseman through at least October of 2009 (he was drafted in June 2010), I think that’s fair. Anyway, the point is that 15 high school first basemen isn’t a lot. And an average of three being selected within the draft’s top ten rounds is even crazier. We know why this is — as a position of last resort for a big bat that can’t handle any other defensive home, first basemen are made in college or the pros and not born — but it’s still important to keep in mind as we head into June. I know I have a tendency to overvalue the depth of just about every position in every draft, but the reality is that there are only a few top names worth knowing and that’s it. Knowing who to know, of course, is easier said than done. Good thing I enjoy the process of trying to identify those guys as much as I do.
Pick Number of First HS First Baseman Selected
2014: 3.97
2013: 1.11
2012: 1s.47
2011: 2.68
2010: 1.23*
2009: 5.169
Average: 2.69
The mean draft position of the first HS first baseman off the board since 2009 is equivalent to a late second round pick. The 2009 draft skews the data some; tossing it out moves the mean down twenty spots to around the 49th overall pick. Of course chucking out data points is a dangerous game, especially considering the asterisk you might have noticed on the 1.23 in 2010. That was the year Christian Yelich was picked. If we consider him an outfield prospect instead, then we have to go all the way to pick 11.341 to find the first real high school first baseman selected. That’s wild. Let’s swap out these numbers with some names to provide a little more context.
Names of First HS First Baseman Selected
2014: TBD
2013: Dominic Smith
2012: Matt Olson
2011: Dan Vogelbach
2010: Christian Yelich
2009: Jonathan Singleton (Jeff Malm)
Interesting to me that in almost every draft since I started the initial first baseman off the board has turned out to be the best, and in many cases only, actual prospect of the class. The only exception (assuming we’re waiting to make such a call for 2014) appears to be my first year doing this back in 2009. Jeff Malm was first, but Jonathan Singleton turned out to be the best. Smith was the consensus top guy in his class, but I could hear arguments for others (Cody Bellinger, Rowdy Tellez, even Jake Bauers) overtaking him at this point. Olson, Vogelbach, and Singleton stand alone as the only viable future big league regular to potentially come out of their respective groups. Yelich saves his class from having nobody at all. It’s an ugly recent history, but the reality is clear: finding one worthwhile first base prospect (who signs) out of a high school class in any given draft year is plenty. Also notable: said worthwhile first base prospect is almost always the first taken.
Number of HS First Basemen Selected (Number Selected Within Top Ten Rounds)
2014: 12 (3)
2013: 14 (3)
2012: 13 (4)
2011: 15 (5)
2010: 18 (1)
2009: 21 (2)
2008: 22 (4)
2007: 25 (6*)
2006: 20 (5)
2005: 27 (1)
2004: 23 (2)
2003: 21 (2)
2002: 29 (8)
2001: 25 (6)
2000: 20 (5)
Average: 20.3 (3.8)
We did this already using just the 2009-2014 data, but I expanded it here to give us more info to work with. The asterisk in 2007 is for Stanton. I didn’t count him because I opted to count Yelich instead, but one extra first baseman clearly wouldn’t have impacted the overall picture here. There have been just about 20 HS first basemen selected in each draft (on average) since 2000. Just under four of those first basemen have been picked in the top ten rounds of the draft. What stands out to me is the change we’ve seen just in the last decade or so. It could be nothing, but look at the three-year splits…
2000-2002: 24.6
2003-2005: 23.6
2006-2008: 22.3
2009-2011: 18.0
2012-2014: 13.0
The number of HS first basemen selected in the draft has steadily gone down since at least 2000. That’s noteworthy. We’ve talked a lot about quantity so far, so let’s circle back to quality…
Positive bWAR High School First Basemen Selected And Signed Since 2000
2008: Eric Hosmer
2007: Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo
2006:
2005: Logan Morrison
2004: Mike Carp
2003:
2002: Prince Fielder, James Loney, and Travis Ishikawa
2001: Casey Kotchman
2000: Adrian Gonzalez
Some really good names on that list, clearly. When you hit on a HS first baseman, you can really hit big. That comes out to just about one per draft, which fits nicely with our “one viable prospect is picked in each draft” point made above. The above first basemen sorted by bWAR…
Adrian Gonzalez (39.4)
Prince Fielder (23.6)
Freddie Freeman (12.7)
James Loney (12.6)
Anthony Rizzo (11.0)
Casey Kotchman (7.5)
Eric Hosmer (6.6)
Travis Ishikawa (1.6)
Mike Cartp (1.5)
Logan Morrison (1.2)
Drafted way back in 2008, Eric Hosmer is the last positive value HS 1B to make an impact on the big leagues. That means that the last six draft classes have yielded nothing to date. That’s hardly unexpected given traditional developmental curves — Jon Singleton, young for his class anyway, is still five months shy of his 25th birthday — but worth considering when you hear about potentially quick-moving potential high school bat-first prospects.
Conclusions
1) The first high school first base prospect should expect to be off the board somewhere between pick 50 and 70.
2) Said first high school first base prospect selected is historically the most likely of his class to contribute in a meaningful way professionally (obvious statement, but still); recent history suggest he will be the only future potential regular of the class.
3) Between fifteen and twenty high school first base prospects will be picked (around five in the top ten rounds); few will sign, fewer will do much in pro ball.
These are all very broad conclusions meant to impart some meaning on the macro-level. They shouldn’t be applied to any specific decision made by a team drafting this June. You don’t pass on Anthony Rizzo in 2007 because Freddie Freeman was already picked and that means the one good first baseman is already gone. Every class is different, every prospect is different. Just had to get out in front of that because I don’t want anybody thinking I view THE DRAFT as some kind of monolithic entity rather than the living, breathing, rapidly evolving organism that it is. Not literally, though. That would be terrifying.
High School Catchers
(If you left a comment in the past few days, my goal is to get back to it by the end of the day today. Thanks for reading, interacting, and being patient.)
The success rate for catchers drafted and signed out of high school in Major League Baseball is quite low. This article at Beyond the Boxscore outlines this idea well. The most interesting part, for our purposes at least, is this…
So if very few catchers in the majors are highly drafted high school catchers, where are they all coming from? Of the 33 catchers who have accrued 100+ plate appearances, fourteen were drafted out of college and thirteen were signed internationally. That means six were drafted out of high school.
That stat was true as of last June. I’m too lazy to update it for May 2015, but considering it’s only been eleven months, I think it is safe to assume it’s not too far off the mark today. Here are the catchers that produced positive value per Baseball Reference’s WAR (bWAR) that were drafted and signed out of high school since 2000. It’s set up as follows: year, draft position, name, and value of bWAR in parentheses.
2000: 4.113 Yadier Molina (28.9), 17.500 Mike Napoli (25.2)
2001: 1.1 Joe Mauer (46.8), 1s.33 Jeff Mathis (1.7), 2.49 Rene Rivera (2.5), 11.318 Geovany Soto (10.4)
2002: 2.64 Brian McCann (25.7)
2003: 1s.36 Jarrod Saltalamacchia (5.9)
2004: 4.122 Lou Marson (1.6), 27.803 Martin Maldonado (2.1)
2005: 13.389 Josh Thole (0.2)
2006: 1.25 Hank Conger (2.3)
2007: 1.15 Devin Mesoraco (4.0), 1s.37 Travis d’Arnaud (0.3), 4.130 Derek Norris (6.6)
2008: 9.292 Christian Vazquez (1.1)
2009: 2s.76 JR Murphy (0.6), 4.123 Max Stassi (0.3), 10.299 Tucker Barnhart (0.4)
First, it’s amazing to me to realize that the usual cutoff for judging players drafted doesn’t really apply at this position. I don’t like judging a prospect’s big league future for at least a couple seasons past his draft year, but you really can’t do that for catchers. Turns out catchers really do develop later. Take guys like Mesoraco and d’Arnaud. It took each player six full professional seasons to establish themselves as regular players in the big leagues.
Second, and this is probably one of those things interesting only to me and not all that relevant to this year’s draft class, there are definite value tiers that have established themselves since 2000 with these players. Mauer is all by himself at the top. Then closely bunched together are Molina, McCann, and Napoli. The next tier includes Soto, Norris, Saltalamacchia, and Mesoraco. Then you get a bunch of marginal talents like Rene Rivera, Hank Conger, Martin Maldonado, Jeff Mathis, and Lou Marson. Then there are some younger guys like Christian Vazquez, JR Murphy, Max Stassi, Tucker Barnhart, Travis d’Arnaud, and Josh Thole. The categories aren’t perfect — calling Conger a marginal talent and Thole a youngster isn’t ideal — but they work out nicer than I would have guessed.
Third, prep catchers are not a very good bang for your buck. My pen and paper math came out to an average of right around 56 high school catchers drafted per year from 2000 to 2009. Just under two per draft class turned into positive value big league players. Also interesting: the average draft position of these big leaguers was 183rd overall, which is the rough equivalent of a sixth round pick. That’s a bit of a case of numbers lying (or being massaged to make a point…) because Maldonado (pick 803) and Napoli (pick 500) throw everything off. A better way of looking at it is with a good old fashioned stem-and-leaf plot. My very lazy version, very condensed version…
1: X – X – X
1s – X – X – X
2: X – X
2s: X
3:
4: X – X – X – X
Or, including supplemental rounds with their parent round, we get this much prettier version…
1: X – X – X – X – X – X
2: X – X – X
3:
4: X – X – X – X
Count those X’s. A whopping thirteen of the nineteen catchers drafted and signed out of high school to put up positive bWAR since 2000 were drafted by the end of round four. So if you want a prep catcher, get him quickly. It’s a particularly tough group to mine for diamonds in the rough. For what it’s worth, I think this trend will hold up with the last few drafts as well. Not a whole lot of actual signed prospects outside of the first few rounds.
Going back to 2000 gives some historical perspective often lacking when talking prospects. I know I’ve longed for the day that this site would have enough of a back catalogue of work to refer to when having these discussions. In the meantime, I still like putting things in the context of when I started the site back in 2009. I took a look back to see how many drafted high school catching prospects were selected in the top four rounds in each class since then. Since I’m only interested in trying to see how many high school guys we might expect to see drafted early this year, I didn’t bother with guys who didn’t sign (Brett Austin) nor did I knock anybody for recent position changes (Clint Coulter). Here’s what we’ve got…
2014: 4
2013: 7
2012: 5
2011: 5
2010: 2
2009: 7
So, really, we should only make a HS catching prospect list that goes seven players deep and call it a day, right? I kid, of course, since that presumes that a) historical drafting trends supersedes the specific talent level of any given class, b) outliers like Napoli, Soto, and Vazquez aren’t worth doing a little extra work to attempt to identify, and c) any draft “expert” is prescient enough to identify the exact top seven high school catching prospects prior to the draft. Here are the highest drafted high school catching prospects drafted (I included all first round or supplemental first round picks) since the site’s been around…
2009: 33
2010: 22
2011: 26
2012: 26 and 27
2013: 14 and 21
2014: 36 and 40
It’s a bit of a fortuitous end point because the year before I started the site, 2008, was the same year that high school catcher Kyle Skipworth went sixth overall (and one spot after Buster Posey) to the Marlins. I do think there is something to the lack of early interest in high school catching in recent years, perhaps even due in some small way to Skipworth busting like he did.
On the surface none of this is great news for guys like Chris Betts and Tyler Stephenson. I’d argue it’s less great for Betts, the more likely to remain behind the plate over the long haul of the two, but it’s probably less great for the group of catchers in the next tier down from the clear Betts/Stephenson potential first round pairing. We’ll talk about Betts, Stephenson, and that next group down in a little more depth tomorrow. Until then, a couple of quick conclusions from today. All of the caveats from above (historical trends aren’t more important than individual prospects being the most relevant and most important here) apply, but taking into everything else into account we can guess that the following will wind up as true in 2015…
1) The first high school catching prospect should expect to be off the board around the mid-20s in the first round.
2) There will be other quality catching prospects (perhaps up to five) off the board through round four, but not so much after that point.
3) Only two of said prospects should be expected to have meaningful MLB careers as catchers.
2015 MLB Draft – Abbreviated College Shortstop Ranking Sneak Peek
Here’s an unusually short post that would probably be best served via a tweet or three if I had the time management skills to maintain an active Twitter account and actually write worthwhile-ish longer stuff, an arguably not so difficult task that so many actual writers are able to do with seemingly relative ease. I’m not as good a multi-tasker as those guys apparently, which probably explains (in part) why they are where they are and why I’m quietly cranking out material in my teeny tiny little corner of the internet.
(I wrote that “introduction” before I started writing the body of the post found below. I should have known that this thing would go longer than a “tweet or three,” but I’m just that dense. This is why I’m not cut out for Twitter…)
College Shortstop Rankings for the 2015 MLB Draft (April 28, 2015)
- LSU SS/2B Alex Bregman
- Vanderbilt SS Dansby Swanson
- Louisiana SS Blake Trahan
- Florida SS/CF Richie Martin
- San Diego SS Kyle Holder
- Arizona SS Kevin Newman
- Virginia SS Daniel Pinero
- Kennesaw State SS Kal Simmons
I don’t know what it would take to knock Bregman off the top spot, but something pretty drastic would have to go down to get me to consider anybody but him. I’ll take it a step further and throw out there that I’m not unconvinced he’s the top overall prospect in this year’s draft. In fact, the entire impetus of this piece was to get that Bregman take out there for public consumption. Also, finally, I’m now one of the Bregman converts who believes he can make it work, at least long enough to make it worth his drafting team’s while, at shortstop in pro ball. Feels good to escape the dark side for a change.
Of course, this being the year of the college shortstop, it should be no shock that I can both love Bregman and realize that Swanson isn’t too far off his trail. What might surprise is that I think Trahan isn’t too far behind after that. There’s a bit of a gap after those three, so I reserve the right to shuffle those names hourly between now and June. Martin’s athleticism, defensive tools, and offensive approach have been buried a bit due to playing in the SEC shadow of both Bregman and Swanson, but he’s really, really good. Either Martin or Holder could make an honest claim to the third best college shortstop in this class right now, so big finishes to the season could easily put them in the mid- to late-first round mix.
I’ve talked at length about Newman in the comments section, but he’s worth discussing briefly here once again. In short, as many members of the national media have begun talking him up as a potential top ten (or two) player in this class, I’ve actually cooled on him, due largely to concerns about his long-term defensive future. In much the same way that I feel as though pre-injury Nate Kirby got a bum rap due to a below-average start (iffy velo, too many sliders, below-average command) with a lot of national prospect writing heat in the house (what a silly thing to actually type out), Newman seems to have gotten a sizable bump because of a good couple of games in front of some influential media members. I could be entirely wrong here (maybe these ranking changes were made with more behind the scenes intel than publicly divulged to this point) and I acknowledge that moving players up and down the board based on new information is an essential part of the process at this stage of the game. We’ll see. For now, I’ll say that I’d be pretty stunned if Newman is actually a top ten (or two) pick in this draft, barring some underslot pre-draft agreement shenanigans. More to the point, since draft position is secondary to actual on-field future professional performance, I’d be even more surprised if Newman had a career that would place him in the top ten (or two) of the signed members of the 2015 MLB Draft. Again, we’ll see.
I love that this draft class is so loaded with college shortstops that a draft-eligible sophomore listed at 6-5, 210 pounds with startlingly good defensive tools putting up impressive numbers for one of the nation’s best programs has gotten little to no national draft love. I have no clue how those in the game view Pinero as a prospect just yet, but I love the guy. I also now like Simmons a lot (he’s done all you could ask for him so far this year) and not just because mentioning him gives me the opportunity to crow about being the only person on the planet (probably) to publicly rank him as the A-Sun’s second best draft prospect pre-season. Any time I can slip in a Donnie Dewees mention is cool by me.
My next tier down includes about a dozen names, but I’ll limit it to these four for now: Drew Jackson, CJ Hinojosa (big pre-season miss on my end, really though he was set for a monster draft year), Kevin Kramer, and Dylan Bosheers. I also have to give a mention to Scott Kingery, who very well could have wait it takes to transition about two dozen big steps over to his right and play some professional shortstop when it’s all said and done. I tried to stay away from potential shortstop conversion projects for now — mostly because I’m a chicken and not willing to quite stick my neck out there just yet — but Kingery has as strong a case as any 2015 college prospect not currently playing shortstop to successfully make the move in the pros.
Where in the World is…?
Time for little crowd-sourced assistance to help track down some of these prospects that I had on rosters, but no longer show up as active players in 2015. I imagine many are at junior colleges, some have given up the game, and others are sitting out the year while transferring to another D-1 school. Heck, some could be on the roster that I had them listed on originally, but I was too blind to see them. Any and all help is appreciated.
As for the rest of the week (and beyond), the goal is to get back into high school ball and go over a bunch of my older notes on this year’s underrated prep class. I’ve actually seen more HS ball than college ball so far this spring for the first time since my own high school days, so I’m pretty excited to take a pause from college coverage to get a closer look at some of the best high school athletes this country (and Canada and Puerto Rico…) has to offer.
EDIT: I couldn’t resist doing some more searching of my own on these guys. Made it as far as Alexander before getting distracted by something else. Will hopefully get to the rest later.
Clemson SO LHP Hunter Hill (2016)
Florida State SO RHP/INF MT Minacci (2016)
Louisville SO RHP Mason Richardson (2015) – USC Aiken
Miami SO 1B Bradley Zunica (2015) – State College of Florida Manatee-Sarasota
North Carolina JR OF Zach Daly (2015) – Lander
Virginia SO OF Tyler Allen (2016)
Central Florida JR RHP Zac Favre (2015)
Central Florida SO LHP Vinnie Rosace (2015) – Seminole State College of Florida
Cincinnati rJR OF Will Drake (2015)
Connecticut JR LHP Christian Colletti (2015) – Indian River State College
Connecticut SO 3B/1B Ryan Sullivan (2016)
East Carolina JR RHP Justin Taylor (2015)
Alabama SO OF Hunter Webb (2015) – Chattahoochee Valley CC
Alabama rSO OF Matthew Goodson (2015) – Auburn-Montgomery
Kentucky SO RHP Logan Parrett (2016)
Vanderbilt rSO RHP Luke Stephenson (2015)
Florida FR 3B/RHP Hunter Alexander (2015) – St. Johns River State
Mississippi State JR RHP John Marc Shelly (2015)
Texas A&M JR LHP Hayden Howard (2015)
Texas A&M rSO LHP Rex Hill (2015)
Oklahoma SO LHP Octavio Rodriguez (2016)
Oklahoma SO RHP Tyler Gibson (2016)
St. John’s JR RHP Anthony Rosati (2015)
California FR 3B Denis Karas (2017)
USC JR LHP Sean Adler (2015)
Stanford JR RHP Andrew McCormack (2015)
Washington State FR C Alan Crowley (2017)
Washington State JR RHP Chris McDowell (2015)
Maryland FR SS Dominic DiSabatino (2017)
UC Santa Barbara JR RHP Hector Lujan (2015)
UC Santa Barbara SO SS Brody Weiss (2016)
Gonzaga JR 2B/SS Cabe Reiten (2015)
Loyola Marymount SO RHP Matt Gorgolinski (2016)
San Francisco SO LHP Jordan Haseltine (2016)
San Francisco JR OF Harrison Bruce (2015)
San Francisco rSO 1B/OF Dylan Parks (2015)
Charlotte rSO SS Matt Creech (2015)
Marshall JR C David Diaz-Fernandez (2015)
Marshall JR LHP Zachary Shockley (2015)
Old Dominion JR RHP Tommy Alexander (2015)
Illinois State SO Ben Hecht (2016)
Fresno State JR RHP Blake Quinn (2015)
San Diego State JR RHP Tyler Sapp (2015)
Abilene Christian JR RHP Stuart Patke (2015)
Stony Brook JR SS Austin Shives (2015)
UNC Wilmington JR William Prince (2015)
Louisiana-Monroe SO LHP Taka High (2016)
South Alabama rSO RHP Kyle Rovig (2015)
Florida Gulf Coast rSO RHP Brad Labozzetta (2015)
Stetson SO RHP Taylor Cockrell (2016)
Coastal Carolina SO LHP Dalton Moats (2016)
Gardner-Webb JR RHP Hunter Smith (2015)
Longwood JR RHP Blake Ream (2015)
Presbyterian JR RHP Brett Byrum (2015)
Alabama State JR SS/RHP Branden Castro (2015)
Southern SO RHP Brady May (2016)
North Carolina Central JR SS Nick Stoll (2015)
Kyle Funkhouser
I’ve resisted writing about Louisville baseball for a while. It started months ago, but back then it wasn’t my fault: the Cardinals were one of the last teams in all of college ball to release their updated roster, so I had to wait anyway. Staying away even once the roster was published can be explained away to a point (even a patient guy like me has to move on eventually), but the most honest reason why I didn’t write about Louisville before today is because I didn’t know what to say about their star player and potential top ten pick, JR RHP Kyle Funkhouser. I still don’t.
I’ve personally seen Funkhouser twice. The first was way back in Louisville’s Big East days on 5/4/13. It was a blink and you’d miss it appearance with Funkhouser only pitching to two batters. He threw more balls than strikes that day while allowing a single and a walk. It wasn’t the kind of outing that had you walking away thinking you just saw a future lock first round pick, but there were indicators (arm speed, delivery, frame) that better days were ahead. Most of the scouts around me that day — and there were about a half-dozen or so, a pretty good crowd for any Villanova home game — didn’t pay much attention to Funkhouser’s appearance, busying themselves instead with their guarded chats about the starting pitchers they were here to say who just exited (Pat Young and Jeff Thompson) and the relief ace yet to come (Nick Burdi, who struck out two in getting his tenth save of the season). They also talked — far more openly and enthusiastically — about the forthcoming annual BBQ planned by one of the local veteran scouts in attendance. Thought long and hard about trying to angle for an invite to crash that party, but I would have been the youngest guy there by about thirty years so I opted to stay in my lane.
The next time I saw Funkhouser he was pitching for a team now in the AAC against Temple in one of the Owls last ever games. He was a little better this time out: 8 IP 4 H 0 ER 1 BB 12 K. The game also featured another shot at seeing Nick Burdi up close and personal (two strikeouts again) and an impressive complete game loss thrown by future Phillies ninth round pick Matt Hockenberry. I don’t recall if the scouts had a BBQ planned that weekend or not, but I do remember hearing from many that only a nasty injury would keep Funkhouser out of the 2015 first round. I also remember an older gentleman — not a scout as far as I could tell — refer to the pitcher having his way with Temple that day as Doogie Howser, so, all in all, it was a pretty good day.
Even for a prospect that I’ve seen multiple times (pro tip: multiple is almost always used to mean twice, at least when I use it) and have gotten a lot of feedback on from actual baseball men, I still don’t know what to say about him. He’s really good, obviously, but I’m not sure what I can add to the conversation beyond that. The fastball has a chance to be a plus pitch that he can lean on heavily when the offspeed isn’t working (and even when it is) due to premium velocity (90-95, 97-98 peak) and movement. The missing component there is command, an area of Funkhouser’s game that remains inconsistent despite the progress he’s made there this spring. He’s overall command has improved (fastball more so than offspeed, which I’d rather see if forced to choose), but it’s still not much better than average on his best day. I don’t see why he couldn’t make a jump in his command grade in the future because his delivery is clean and repeatable (I’m far from an expert, but I personally really like his motion — really well-balanced with outstanding tempo — minus the rushed finish), he’s reasonably athletic, and he’s already shown the capacity for improvement going back to his high school days in Illinois. The assortment of secondary offerings (SL, CB, and CU) speaks to the relatively high floor that a strapping four-pitch righthander with a track record of striking out a batter an inning at a big-time baseball school is expected to bring to the pro ranks.
I personally really like his slider (80-86) because it’s a pitch that he can throw down for swinging strikes and backdoor it to get guys looking and/or set up the next (better) pitch. It’s been consistently above-average for me and (reportedly) often gets better as the game goes on and he gets a better feel for it. His curve is still a pitch in progress, but I’ve been told that he’s firmed it up enough (73-77 when I saw him, 75-82 this year) that I should consider bumping up my average upside for the pitch (usable currently, but more of a “wasted” show-me pitch at the moment) to slightly more than that. His change ranged from 80-87 in my look and has varied this year from outing to outing (80-84 one week, 85-89 the next, then back to the low-80s again, etc.). I actually prefer his a little bit on the firm side because I don’t really see the pitch ever becoming a consistent swing and miss offering for him. The added firmness should encourage him to use the pitch earlier in counts when velocity separation isn’t as big a deal, and hopefully the pitch will help him get some nice, quick ground ball outs in the process. My 100% “not a scout, just a fan” observation after watching nine innings of him in person (and a bunch on video, but mostly just for fun) is that the arm action on Funkhouser’s change seems quite consistent with his heater, a fact that, again, could have something to do with the fact he can throw it close to as hard as where certain unnamed big league pitchers get their fastballs. I’m more bullish on it becoming at least an average pitch before too long with even more upside as he begins to use it more, which will hopefully be the case if he pumps it in there within the first few pitches of every few at bats.
Add it all up and you get a pitcher with a fine delivery, solid athleticism, inconsistent yet improving command and control, a clear plus fastball (with plus-plus upside if he learns to better command it), an above-average slider, and a raw curve/firm changeup combination that should produce at least another average or better pitch but should at least give him two additional usable pitches that hitters will have to at least mentally account for. A few pitching prospects came to mind when watching him that I feel are worth sharing with the group. In addition to my own potential comps, I also asked around and got two names from smart people. I like this because these guys are all peers of Funkhouser, so, hopefully, one of the bigger criticisms of comps that I hear (they create unfair expectations for players!) can be bypassed this time. One cautionary name that Funkhouser’s game brings to mind is Kyle Crick. Cautionary is perhaps a tad harsh sounding because there’s really nothing wrong with Crick, a fine pitching prospect with the Giants with the chance to be a very good big league pitcher. Check Kiley McDaniel’s report on him from earlier this month, mentally sub in Funkhouser’s name for Crick’s, and tell me they don’t share some similarities…
Crick has electric #2/3 starter stuff, is still only 22 and is in the upper levels of the minors, but his command has never been strong. Some guys with big stuff just take time to develop the feel and find consistency in their delivery, so the Giants will give Crick more innings to figure it out…At his best, Crick sits 94-97, hits 99 mph and will show heavy sink down in the zone. His mid-80’s slider flashes plus with hard cutting action, he mixes in an average curveball to change eye levels, and his changeup is above average when he throws it perfectly. Crick’s feel still wanders a lot, affecting the crispness and consistency of his off-speed stuff and command.
Again, Crick is really good, so getting a guy with his kind of talent in the draft is a wonderful thing. It’s just the uncertainty over a guy like Crick’s (and potentially Funkhouser’s) future role — many, as McDaniel alludes to in his full article, think of Crick as a potential closer — and his persistent control problems combine to make it a dicey gamble within the draft’s top ten picks. Another interesting comp (and I guy I completely whiffed on) is Jake Thompson. This would be another “cautionary” comp only because of the potential you’re drafting a guy too early that is destined to get stuck in the bullpen due to below-average command. I like this comp a little less because Thompson is more of a classic “whoa, this stuff is suddenly GREAT in short bursts” future reliever, and that’s an issue that Funkhouser simply doesn’t share. Joe Ross, formerly of San Diego and currently with Washington, came up as a point of comparison as well. Funkhouser and Ross share explosive fastballs, strong sliders, athletic builds, and a reputation for spotty command. That’s not a bad one (Ross is a little leaner and a better athlete), and I could see the two having similar pro ceilings. Finally, there’s Chris Anderson. Here’s what I wrote about him in his draft year…
Jacksonville JR RHP Chris Anderson: 88-92 FB; good breaking ball; Cape 2012: 88-92 FB, 93 peak; good 75-76 CB; SL; 79-81 split-CU; held velocity well; iffy control; FB up to 94-95 at times; 2013: 89-95 FB, 96-97 peak; above-average to plus 80-85 SL; 78-84 CU with above-average upside; average to good 77-80 CB; sinker; holds velocity late; Matt Garza and Andy Benes comps; 6-4, 225 pounds; (2011: 7.11 K/9 | 50.2 IP) (2012: .273/.346/.339 – 8 BB/28 K – 0/0 SB – 121 AB) (2012: 7.13 K/9 | 3.97 BB/9 | 4.36 FIP | 88.1 IP) (2013: 8.86 K/9 | 2.24 BB/9 | 3.64 FIP | 104.2 IP)
I don’t love how the Anderson report is organized with the most recent stuff (at the time) at the end, but if you look at the draft year (2013) update you see this: 89-95 FB, 96-97 peak; above-average to plus 80-85 SL; 78-84 CU with above-average upside; average to good 77-80 CB; sinker; holds velocity late. Again, not entirely dissimilar to the Funkhouser package. Funkhouser (9.04 K/9 and 4.39 BB/9 in 242 IP) has performed at a higher level than Anderson (7.71 K/9 and 3.73 BB/9 in 244 IP) against better competition, plus he gets bonus points (from me) for being a fairly well-known prospect for the better part of the past two seasons. Funkhouser has been picked apart by just about everybody with a vested interest in this stuff by now; Anderson was a bit more under the radar, so the newness of his prospect status engendered a feeling of untold possibility for dopes like me who can get fatigued by talking about the same old prospects for years on end. Here’s Kiley McDaniel again with an update on what Anderson has done since his draft days…
Anderson popped up in his draft year (2013) out of Jacksonville U. in Florida, going in the middle of the first round after delivering on his physical projection by flashing a plus fastball and slider with starter traits. Anderson’s changeup was average in most outings in his draft year, but it’s coming and going in pro ball. His command also wandered a bit and it showed in his numbers, but getting out of the hitter-friendly Cal League for 2015 should help in that regard. Anderson made a mechanical change late in 2014 to revert back to his pre-draft mechanics and it looked to help both issues. There’s #3 starter upside if it all comes together and a 2015 campaign in Double-A could be the place that happens.
Sounds about right for Funkhouser’s pro projection, though, now that he’s the “new” prospect to talk about (always funny how pro guys get excited about all the college/HS prospects we were once thrilled to cover at the start of their amateur journeys) it’s understandable and perhaps even reasonable to think there’s a little more ceiling to Funkhouser. When it comes to ceiling, I do like to talk in terms of big league comparisons. This is where those who hate comps for the unrealistic expectations they create — one of my favorite lines I heard on this is “Just let (Blank Player) be the first (Blank Player)!” Sure, sure. Thankfully, I don’t think that will be a problem here as there very clearly can be one, and only one, FUNKHOUSER — can tune me out. Crick, Ross, and Thompson are all tough players to compare to Funkhouser as prospects because a) they are themselves still prospects and comparing unfinished things to fellow unfinished things is a sure way to drive yourself mad, and b) comparing prospect peers currently on different developmental paths can be quite messy, what with attempting (and, in my case, failing) to define similar points of development and getting all turned around when looking at HS prospects (like the aforementioned group) with college guys (like Funkhouser). As the lone college product Anderson is probably the closest of the four previous comps (I think). Anderson was selected 18th overall in 2013, so it only makes sense that the superior Funkhouser would go higher in an inferior draft talent-wise.
Beyond the prospects we’ve covered, three big league stars (and all college guys) came up in conversations (both with real life talent evaluators smarter than myself and in my own head because, yeah, I sometimes talk to myself about this stuff) centered around trying to find an honest comparison for Funkhouser. The first mystery comp can be found below with his pre-draft (2009) scouting report excerpted from Baseball America as his only identifier…
He routinely sits at 93-95 mph with life on his fastball and touched 98 in a relief outing against Wichita State. He has a mid-80s slider with bite that peaked at 89 mph against the Shockers. And if that’s not enough, he has a power curveball and flashes an effective changeup. He has a quick arm, a strong 6-foot-2, 217-pound build and throws on a downhill plane with little effort…He has the raw ingredients to become a frontline starter, and on the rare occasions when he has command, he looks like an easy first-round pick.
Next we have a heavily redacted college pick from 2007…
[His] stuff was improving as the season went on, and he was consistently working in the low 90s and showing a quality slider as [his team] entered the [conference/division/league] playoffs. He also throws a changeup with promising action and uses a loopy curveball as a fourth pitch. [He] regularly touched 93-95 in the Northwoods League, and scouts expect him to show that velocity more often as he adds more strength to his 6-foot-2, 205-pound frame.
And finally we have a player with a pre-draft scouting report that looks so goofy now that I won’t even quote it. Fine, fine…you’ve twisted my arm. Here it is…
[He] has pitched more at 91-92 mph, often peaking at 95. While he has one of the best pure arms in the draft, he doesn’t consistently have a second plus pitch. His slider is effective but usually rates as a 50 or 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He has added a wide-grip changeup and a two-seam fastball in the last year, and he’s still refining his secondary pitches. While he has toned down his delivery in college, he still throws with more effort than Joba Chamberlain or Luke Hochevar.
Ironically enough, the pitcher in question directly above was the highest (11th) player selected out of the three pitchers we’re talking about. Needless to say, he has surpassed the expectations that BA had for him pre-draft back in 2006 (they strongly suggested he’d be in the bullpen before long) by a healthy margin. I think we can more or less throw this one out because I think of him as a pretty big outlier in terms of player development. In other words, thanks for playing Max Scherzer. Comping anybody to the $210 million man is probably a mistake anyway, but it was largely based on Scherzer’s incredibly effective fastball/slider usage and slowly improving change that he’s relied on a bit more almost every year since hitting the majors.
The top scouting note from above refers to Garrett Richards. Richards is another fastball/slider pitcher, but what makes him most like Funkhouser (potentially) is the way he has overcome his command issues and while drastically improving his control. The notion of Funkhouser being all stuff with little touch is perhaps a bit unfair and outdated since, again, he’s improved his command in small measures every year since enrolling at Louisville, but it’s still his closest player archetype in my mind because, as much credit as I give him for improving this year, we’re talking going from below-average to average at times and not some miraculous leap just yet. Literally just had a conversation with the wife where she bragged about filling up the PUR water pitcher more than she used to. That’s all well and good, I say, but when filling it up more means doing it once a month instead of never, then I’m not sure how much love should be given for that improvement. In other words, both command and control are still issues for Funkhouser, though neither look like a potential fatal flaw. Or, alternatively, just sub out shoe shining for command and you get the idea… 
I don’t love the Richards comparison for a few reasons (stylistically, the two couldn’t have deliveries that look more different to my eye), though statistically the two put up some interestingly close numbers. Take it with the same grain of salt you would whenever stats are used to compare amateurs, but Richards at Oklahoma did this (9.07 K/9 and 4.93 BB/9) compared to Funkhouser at Louisville doing this (9.04 K/9 and 4.39 BB/9) so far. Hmm. In terms of career path and ultimate value, maybe it’s a fit. Finally, there’s the man behind the second scouting blurb: Jordan Zimmermann. He’s yet another fastball/slider big league pitcher with little time for much else. He uses the curve as a de facto changeup because, quite honestly, like the other two stars mentioned, his change isn’t very good. I bring up Zimmermann not as a direct comp per se, but as a potential developmental path that Funkhouser could mirror once he hits the pro ranks. I think Funkhouser’s change should be given room to grow rather than ditched, but Zimmermann’s below average change was once said to have “promising action,” so what do any of us really know?
One last bonus comp came to mind as I was working my way through this piece. Before I get to it, an obvious disclaimer that I’d feel guilty leaving unwritten: these are all extreme ceiling comparisons and the likelihood of all but the surest of sure thing amateur prospects (Stephen Strasburg comes to mind) becoming a consistent above-average or better big league pitcher on the level of any of those star players isn’t all that high. This whole profile may not do a great job of getting this point across, but I like Funkhouser more than love him. That’s based on a nagging intuitive feel more than anything concrete, so don’t take it as too big of a knock. I still would strongly consider him with a top ten selection, but I don’t think he’s the slam dunk single-digit pick that many have made him out to be. A guy that was just compared to Richards, Scherzer, and Zimmermann should really be a lock to go 1-1, but that’s why I want it to be clear that I’m only trying to compare elements of his game (and, in some cases, potential best case scenario career paths) to those guys. No literal comps here today. Anyway, the last pitcher that jumped out at me when thinking about Funkhouser had this written about him pre-draft by Baseball America…
He pitches at 90-91 mph, touching 94, and his delivery is clean. The strong-bodied Texan has an intimidating presence on the mound, and he pounds the zone with four pitches. His slider is the better of his two breaking balls, and he features an average changeup.
Funkhouser has a little more present velocity, but otherwise the stuff matches up fairly well to a young Corey Kluber. This article makes plenty of interesting points, but what caught my eye was the mention that Kluber’s fastest and slowest pitches fall within a narrow range of velocity. That’s something I can see Funkhouser eventually doing as he finds his way and adjusts his arsenal to the pro gram. It isn’t something you’d typically consider a good thing for a pitcher, but certain guys can take this perceived negative into a positive. The smaller velocity gap allows the hard stuff to work without a major change of speed because so much of that hard stuff is moving every which way before it gets to the catcher. Timing velocity is one thing, but timing velocity that comes in various shapes is a whole other challenge for a hitter. Movement is paramount, and Funkhouser has the fastball movement and hard breaking ball (slider) to potentially pull off this trick. Like Scherzer, Kluber is a unique developmental case so convincing somebody that you’ve found the “next Kluber” is a justifiably challenging uphill battle. Other fine examples of articles well worth your time can be found here and here; the latter is the best one out there, I think, and reading about Kluber’s impossible to classify breaking ball is something I could do all day. There’s really only one Kluber, just like there’s only one Scherzer, Zimmermann, and Richards, but Funkhouser, at his best, shows elements of each that make him an undeniably intriguing prospect.
*****
If you’ve made it this far, thank you. If you skimmed to the last paragraph to see if I made an attempt to wrap everything up with a pithy conclusion, you’re in luck. Kyle Funkhouser is a really talented young pitcher with the fastball/slider combination that rivals similar one-two punches thrown by some of the game’s best starters. Both his command and control will need to be closely monitored as he transitions to pro ball, but there appears to be no real indication that he is physically or mentally incapable of improving in those areas going forward. There are no concerns about his mechanics nor is their any doubt about his ability to mix his pitches to get through lineups multiple times, so a move to the bullpen doesn’t appear necessary. He’s a future big league two hundred inning workhorse with the ability, especially with improved control and feel for pitching, to one day pitch in a team’s postseason rotation. He should be off the board within the draft’s first dozen or so picks.
2015 MLB Draft Prospects – Louisville
JR RHP Kyle Funkhouser (2015)
rSO LHP Josh Rogers (2015)
rSO LHP Robert Strader (2015)
JR RHP/1B Anthony Kidston (2015)
SR 2B/SS Zach Lucas (2015)
JR 1B/3B Dan Rosenbaum (2015)
SR OF Michael White (2015)
SR 2B/SS Sutton Whiting (2015)
SO RHP Zack Burdi (2016)
SO LHP Drew Harrington (2016)
SO RHP Jake Sparger (2016)
SO OF Corey Ray (2016)
SO 2B/OF Nick Solak (2016)
rFR 3B/SS Blake Tiberi (2016)
rFR OF/C Ryan Summers (2016)
SO OF Colin Lyman (2016)
SO C Will Smith (2016)
FR LHP/1B Brendan McKay (2017)
FR SS/2B Devin Hairston (2017)
FR RHP Lincoln Henzman (2017)
FR RHP Kade McClure (2017)
FR C/1B Colby Fritch (2017)
JR RHP Kyle Funkhouser is going to be covered tomorrow. I went from having nothing to say about him — he’s a very what you see is what you get prospect for me, which makes him really good but tough to personally write about — to writing close to 4,000 words. That’ll be up tomorrow morning.
I’ve got nothing but love for SR 2B/SS Sutton Whiting, one of college ball’s foremost examples of how good things can happen if you keep grinding and play within yourself. Whiting can run, throw (though his arm is more accurate than strong), and spoil pitchers’ pitches. Ignore what you’re about to read about Zach Lucas (I really should plan these things better and stop skipping around…) because Whiting is the far better example of a senior sign that you can draft and develop with a clearly designed path to get him to (at least) the upper-minors. He’s a ready-made potential utility player right out of the box with almost all of the standard pluses (speed, patience, glove, arm accuracy) and minuses (power, requisite strikeouts that come with working deep counts, raw arm strength) that you’d expect. I can dig it.
SR 2B/SS Zach Lucas (told you we’d get to him) doesn’t have the power to profile as anything but a defense-first utility player (if that), but he’s a scrappy college player with plus defensive tools and instincts and that’s worth mentioning even if he never makes his mark on pro ball. That’s one type of college senior sign prospect, albeit not exactly the perfect player (Lucas is hitting .208/.310/.309…so just pretend I used Whiting to illustrate this point instead) to use as the archetype: defined role, limited upside, reasonable expectations of reaching/maintaining floor value. A different type of college senior sign prospect is SR OF Michael White. White fits the model of underexposed but physically gifted prospect with as yet untapped (for a variety of reasons) upside. I can’t make any bold proclamation on White’s future, except to t say he’s a really intriguing under the radar name to know in the event your goal is to look smarter (or more annoying) than 99.99% of the world’s baseball loving population. He’s a great athlete with monster raw power and enough speed and instincts for center. He’s never been able to get steady playing time in the Cardinals lineup, so there’s really no telling how good (or not so good) he’d be in an extended look. I hope he gets the chance in pro ball.
rSO LHP Josh Rogers gets swallowed up by the FUNKHOUSER hype, a perfectly understandable yet unfortunate matter of fact that happens when you share a the top of a rotation with a potential top ten pick and one of the nation’s top freshmen (LHP/1B Brendan McKay). Rogers, a Tommy John surgery survivor, has decent velocity for a lefty (85-90, has been up to 92-93 in the past) and a workable breaking ball. He’s always gotten results when called upon (8.13 K/9 and 2.08 BB/9 last year, 7.65 K/9 and 2.18 BB/9 this year), so, if signable (non-stars with two remaining years of eligibility don’t always jump at the first pro offer they get) there’s really no reason why he shouldn’t be drafted and tried as a pro starter this summer. I don’t know anything about fellow rSO LHP Robert Strader except for the fact that he’s a lefty with a quality name (baseball needs more Robert’s) and good size (6-5, 210), but he’s kept guys from scoring the past two seasons (1.93 ERA last year, 1.20 ERA so far this year) and that’s a good thing. He is missing more bats this year (still walking too many guys though), so consider him a name to keep on eye on as we get closer to June until I find more out about him.
JR RHP/1B Anthony Kidston hasn’t hit since 6 AB his freshman year, yet I still list him as a RHP/1B. Some things in life can’t be explained. Or they can be explained very easily: I’m lazy. On the mound, Kidston has struck out over a batter per nine in his career so far (9.43 K/9 to be exact), so you can overlook his ugly 2015 ERA. His stuff doesn’t blow you away, which is a phrase you almost always when a guy doesn’t have a big fastball. Rarely if ever do you hear that with any attention paid to a player’s offspeed stuff. I’m guilty of doing exactly that here as Kidston actually has a pair of solid secondary pitches (CB and CU), but falls short with his heater (86-90). The overall package is draftable for me because of Kidston’s track record, athleticism, and reasonably enticing stuff.
I know college baseball fans have noticed, but I’m not sure how much casual fans of the game realize how Louisville has turned into a professional producing machine in recent years. Next year’s draft will feature Cardinals like SO RHP Zack Burdi (like him a little less as a reliever than his brother, but think he has the higher likelihood of starting as a pro, which could ultimately make him the better prospect), SO OF Corey Ray (one of 2016’s best power/speed athletes who could really take off with a jump in plate discipline), and SO 2B/OF Nick Solak (personal favorite who wins with a great approach and underrated pop and speed). Then there is SO LHP Drew Harrington (commands three pitches and has a 0.30 ERA in 30 IP this year with outstanding peripherals) and rFR 3B/SS Blake Tiberi (another personal favorite who can really, really hit), plus the aforementioned 2017 early round candidate freshman two-way sensation McKay.
2015 MLB Draft Prospects – Wake Forest
JR RHP/C Garrett Kelly (2015)
SR RHP Matt Pirro (2015)
rSO LHP Max Tishman (2015)
rJR RHP Aaron Fossas (2015)
rSR OF Kevin Jordan (2015)
JR OF/2B Joey Rodriguez (2015)
JR OF Luke Czajkowski (2015)
SO C Ben Breazeale (2016)
rFR RHP Chris Farish (2016)
SO 2B/OF Nate Mondou (2016)
SO 3B/RHP Will Craig (2016)
SO RHP John McCarren (2016)
SO RHP Connor Johnstone (2016)
SO RHP Parker Dunshee (2016)
FR OF Stuart Fairchild (2017)
FR INF Bruce Steel (2017)
FR 1B Gavin Sheets (2017)
FR SS Drew Freedman (2017)
FR 3B Justin Yurchak (2017)
I kept reading the names on the list above over and over trying to remember when I had written about them before. I swear I covered Wake Forest already. It had to be this year, right? Maybe last year, but this year made so much more sense. I guess I’m just losing it, I thought, so let’s jot down some quick notes on what I want to say about certain players…
SO 2B/OF Nate Mondou and SO 3B/RHP Will Craig are both names that all Brewers, Phillies, and any other team in the basement should know in advance of next year’s draft. Mondou can really hit, so the question about him will come down to his projected professional position. Craig is doing his best DJ Stewart impersonation so far at the plate: .396/.500/.758 with 31 BB/16 K in 149 AB.
JR OF/2B Joey Rodriguez isn’t big, but his tools are. If he can play second, he’s a real prospect. I keep reading his name as Joely Rodriguez, recently acquired Phillies minor league lefthanded pitcher. Edit that last sentence out before you publish.
SR RHP Matt Pirro has a good arm (88-93 FB, 95 peak) with a knuckle-curve that flashes plus, but his below-average control hasn’t gotten much better over the years. Feels like a late round flier on a guy with arm strength is his best bet. Wonder if his bad control stems from bad mechanics; if so, can it be fixed?
At this point, I got to JR RHP/C Garrett Kelly’s name in my notes. There is no way I didn’t write about him already this year. I couldn’t find the finished Wake Forest copy anywhere. Searched my site and found nothing. Searched my mail (where I write the occasional rough draft of these things) and found…
I’m a big fan of JR RHP/C Garrett Kelly. He’s a good ballplayer. He’s better at baseball than I ever was and better than 99.99% of the world’s population. Unfortunately, Kelly can’t hit. It was only 32 at bats, but his .094/.310/.125 line last season was not the kind of line you print out and stick on the fridge. That’s what makes his rumored full-time switch to the mound so anxiously awaited. Even though life as a hitter didn’t work out, there’s still a chance for him. As a pitcher, Kelly is a legit pro prospect. He’s already got that nice FB/SL relief combo going (already up to 93 with more likely coming), and the huge perk of being a low-mileage arm won’t go unnoticed by decision-makers this spring. I’ve long been been a sucker for players making the position player to pitcher switch and think Kelly could be a helium guy this spring. He’s joined in what could be one of the more underrated pitching staffs in the conference. SR RHP Matt Pirro finally started missing bats last season, a development that took longer than expected given his impressive stuff (88-92 FB, 94 peak, kCB that flashes plus) but is surely welcomed by the coaching staff all the same. rSO LHP Max Tishman is another arm with a better than 50/50 shot at being drafted this June.
There’s less to like on the hitting side, but that’s all right because of the mere presence of rSR OF Kevin Jordan running around the diamond. Jordan could still hit his way into draft consideration, but failing to do so wouldn’t be the end of the world. His story may not get that Disney ending of him finally climbing the big league mountain, getting a big hit, and then presenting the game ball to Tom Walter, his head coach that donated a kidney to him before his freshman season, but in the real world we can all accept that both he and his coach are already huge winners. I don’t know anybody in and around the game who isn’t rooting for him to succeed. A complete, healthy season where he can start to realize his substantial potential (speed, defense, power, smarts) is the current goal. JR OF/2B Joey Rodriguez’s story doesn’t carry the same weight, but his tools are pretty darn interesting in their own right. He’s still very raw and not particularly big, but a season where he puts it all together would be exciting. Guys like SO 2B/OF Nate Mondou, SO 3B Will Craig, and SO RHP John McCarren should make this a nice spot for scouts next spring.
Yesssss. I wrote those things on November 29, 2014. Let’s see how wrong they are now. First, the most wrong prediction of all: Garrett Kelly. His line so far this year: 9.68 ERA in 17.2 IP with 11 K and 16 BB. Not sure what the opposite of a helium guy would be, but pretty sure those are the numbers of what one would look like. Google says the opposite of helium is sulfur hexaflouride, by the way. The more you know. Pirro is still missing bats, but the aforementioned control woes undermine the rest of his game. Max Tishman hasn’t been able to get healthy, but I still like his arm if/when he gets back on the mound.
Kevin Jordan is a success even while hitting .167/.265/.333. He’s the kind of guy you keep as the last name on your draft board even through the struggles. Rodriguez has come pretty close to putting it all together this season. My only quibble is his still less than stellar BB/K ratio (17/33 as of now), but he’s done enough to get drafted in my view. Mondou and Craig have delivered, but McCarren, despite possessing the third best ERA on the squad, hasn’t missed bats as needed.
Scott Kingery, Willie Calhoun, and the 2015 MLB Draft
Real life has had me busy lately and my queued up supply of posts has finally run dry, so let’s do something a little different. Figure if we’re going to experiment, then Friday is the right day for it, you know? This might be a bit too stream of consciousness-y for some, but we’ll try it anyway.
In a recent Perfect Game piece, a few comps for Arizona JR 2B/OF Scott Kingery, easily one of my favorite college bats in this year’s class, were mentioned. As a sucker for a good comp, I was pleased to see the perfectly logical names Ian Kinsler and Jason Kipnis brought up. I like both, though the last time PG used Kipnis (to my knowledge) was when Frankie Piliere (who is now at D1 Baseball and still great, by the way) compared him to Phillip Ervin. Kingery and Ervin as comp cousins doesn’t pass my personal smell test, but to each his own. On the surface, Kipnis is pretty spot-on for a variety of reasons (same state, same position switch, vaguely similar build); here’s an excerpt from his Baseball America draft scouting report…
Kipnis doesn’t have one standout tool, but can do a little bit of everything. He has a patient approach and a line-drive swing. He has shown he can hit quality pitching, though he doesn’t profile for big power with a wood bat, making him a potential tweener. While his defense in center field has improved, he doesn’t have the range to stay there long-term–yet he might not hit enough to man a corner spot. He may also get a chance to try second base.
I like it more than love it, but it’s at least worth thinking about. I’d say, if anything, Kingery is ahead of where Kipnis was as a prospect at a similar point in their respective development. Kingery’s glove is definitely ahead, both in terms of getting a head start at second base and being flat better across the board. You could make an argument for Kipnis’s bat being ahead back then, but I’d personally go with Kingery’s upside with the stick all the same. Fun final college season stat comparison…
JK: .384/.500/.709
SK: .467/.500/.715
ANYWAY, this post isn’t even about Kingery. I mean, it kind of is because the PG piece got me thinking about other potential comps for Kingery. One of my favorites that I heard recently is a slightly more physical version of Ray Durham, an massively underrated player who can lead you down a very long, very weird Baseball-Reference rabbit hole if you’re not careful. I say that because — big surprise — that’s exactly what happened to me this afternoon. But this post isn’t solely about Kingery because I, of course, had to take things a step further. Self-obsessed individual that I am, I had to check my own damn site to see if I had mentioned Durham in the past. Turns out I had…
2B Willie Calhoun (Benicia HS, California): love his hit tool, easy above-average; average defender; gap power; average speed; good enough arm; great patience; PG Ray Durham comp; have heard a shorter Jay Bell; 5-8, 170 pounds
Good old Willie Calhoun. Went to Arizona for a year, scuffled somewhat at first glance but wound up holding his own more than most non-stud freshman (.247/.345/.301 with 19 BB/11 K in 146 AB), and doing more of the same on the Cape that summer (.245/.331/.331 with 15 BB/15 K in 139 AB), all before transferring to Yavapai JC (Kyle Blanks, Kole Calhoun, Curt Schilling, and Ken Giles all passed through there, among others) where he’s now hitting a robust .443/.520/.940 with 24 BB/8 K in 167 AB. Wait, what: .443/.520/.940 with 24 BB/8 K in 167 AB? All obvious caveats (mainly level of competition and geography/playing conditions) aside, those are numbers of a player worth knowing more about, right?
When a player is literally hitting a homer every other game (or close to it: 22 HR in 47 G), then learning more seems like the smart play. Yavapai’s status as a consistently strong junior college program (they are 34-14 this year) who produce a good bit of big league talent (see the list above) and fields a team this year with a potential top five round pitcher in SO RHP Chandler Eden (Oregon State transfer) and another intriguing prospect in SO 3B Luke Doyle all add up to there being plenty of scouting heat at their games this season. I did a little digging to see what some are saying while also going back deeper into my notes on him from his high school days.
Calhoun has experience over the years at second, third, and in the outfield. At last check he’s not particularly great at any of those spots, but should be around average at his natural position of second base with continued work. Average-ish glove at multiple spots, average wheels, and an average at best arm (that might be generous, but it at least plays at second) can all be worked around with a bat like Calhoun’s. In addition to his innate ability for hard contact, he has a very well-trained eye that allows him to swing at “his” pitches and spit on those he doesn’t like. He has no problem hitting with two strikes and excels at driving the ball to all fields. The uptick in power this year lends credence to those I talked to while Calhoun was still in HS who believed he could eventually develop his way into double-digit professional home run pop. The overall offensive profile is quite appealing for a player with a strong chance to stick up the middle, to say nothing of when you should be able to grab him in the draft (hint: not early) and what the expectations of him will be as he enters pro ball.
If you read the site often, then you know I don’t do “sleepers” because — really — what does that word even mean anyway, and Calhoun was too well-regarded out of high school to fit what I personally think the term should mean, but if you want to go ahead and call him that, I won’t stop you. What he lacks in size, exposure, and over the top physical ability, he more than makes up for in the batter’s box. I love loud tools as much as anybody, but there will always be a place in the game for a hitter like Calhoun who can crack line drives pole to pole, work deep counts, and sneak a few over the fence when he’s feeling strong.
2015 GB% Mid-April Update
Nathan Kirby – 66.3%
Michael Matuella – 55.8%
Walker Buehler – 62.7%
Dillon Tate – 67.8%
Carson Fulmer – 45.7%
Kyle Funkhouser – 60.4%
Phillip Bickford – 53.3%
Jake Lemoine – 58.5%
Kyle Twomey – 61.3%
Alex Young – 60.4%
First, a quick thanks for all those that stumble across this site for whatever reason and click around a bit to see what we’ve been working on. An even bigger thanks to those of you who knowingly come back time after time. I never had expectations in terms of traffic, but it’s still pretty cool to see things trending upwards the way they have over the past few months. Yesterday was a non-June record high for the site, which is both exciting and more than a little funny since it happened on one of the very few weekdays I didn’t publish a post (did my TAXES and went to the DENTIST instead because I’m an ADULT now) since the start of December. This has easily been the most fun I’ve had covering a draft and we’re only getting started.
I’ve been sky high on Kirby in the past, so seeing some of the reports of him having less than stellar stuff in recent starts is a definite bummer. I’m still choosing to believe that he’s being knocked a tad unfairly by experts who put more stock (rightly or wrongly, it’s up to you to decide) in the one outing or so that they see firsthand than the information they gather along the way from individuals who see a player far more often, but it’s a situation well worth monitoring going forward.
Like many experts have already alluded to — or, in one case, reported and then quickly deleted for reasons unknown — concerns within baseball about Matuella’s recovery from Tommy John surgery are far less than whatever is going on with Brady Aiken’s left elbow. That said, since rumblings of complications have not yet manifested themselves in concrete news items, I’d still rank the more talented Aiken ahead of Matuella as of this second. There’s been so much interesting stuff written about the Tommy John procedure (much of it concluding with an attitude of “hey, let’s all pump the breaks on assuming it’s an easy in/out recovery and appreciate how rare it is for even the best athletes to overcome tearing a ligament in the most important part of their body”) over the past few months that I’m now wary of putting either prospect in the top ten conversation. Based on what we think we know at this point — a dangerous game to be sure, but it’s all we’ve got right now — any team drafting Aiken, and to a lesser extent Matuella, has to be prepared for the possibility that they’ll wind up getting nothing out of the pick. I think both players are talented enough, hard working enough, and young enough to recover and eventually pitch in the big leagues, but I’m no doctor…and even if I was, I wouldn’t know anything from the outside looking in at this point. Confusing stuff, really. This may just confuse things further (I’ve waffled a bit since then), but I wrote this to a friend (tried to edit out as much of the local spin as possible) the day after Aiken announced he had the surgery. Much of it presupposes that Aiken’s injury is more standard than what the rumors of late have indicated. I can only hope that this is the case for all involved. Here’s what I wrote last month…
Brady Aiken very stealthily went under the knife last night to repair his busted elbow. Everybody knew he wasn’t right, and in a weird way I’m glad that this was the cause for his average stuff of late. The success rate for Tommy John surgery isn’t what it used to be — it went from a scary thing to a seemingly normal thing and now it’s back to being kind of scary again — but it’s still a reliable enough procedure that I think I’d take it (with appropriate recovery time) over some of the other rumored possibilities (back, shoulder, hip). What does it all mean for the top of the draft?
I’d personally still consider taking Aiken with a top ten pick, but only if everybody in the organization was on the same page about his recovery and development. If it was up to me, I’d plan on him not pitching in a real game until the end of June 2016 (when Rookie ball starts) at the earliest. That’s admittedly a tough pill to swallow since teams picking in the top ten need RESULTS NOW out of their picks to an extent (you don’t have to give in to public pressure and much of the public doesn’t really follow the draft so much anyway, but some teams value this more than others), so I’d understand the trepidation felt by those against the pick. I’d be adamant about holding him out until I was sure he was right. The research on “rushing” guys back is pretty illuminating and a sobering reminder that any arm surgery is a big deal. If you really want to consider the long view, then fourteen months should be the prescribed minimum for this kind of thing per the numbers. Of course, everybody is built differently and standardizing recovery times and rehabilitation has it’s own downsides.
As to that last point, Lucas Giolito is the easiest point of reference from recent history. He was back from TJ in a crazy ten months: surgery on 8/31/12 and back in game action 7/3/13. The ongoing recovery of Jeff Hoffman should also be considered. I think there’s a non-zero chance that those players could both be freaks (in a great way), so it’s hard to use them as measuring sticks. Aiken strikes me as another freaky athlete with the chance to get back on the mound quicker than most, but that’s without knowing the extent of the injury. As far as the draft goes, it’s far from a sure thing teams picking in the back half of the top ten/early teens will even get a chance at Aiken. An injured Hoffman went ninth in the very same draft that a healthy Aiken went first. If Hoffman could go ninth in a better draft (an arguable point, but I freely admit that I hold the minority view that this year’s top half of the first round is every bit as good as last year’s…though with every passing injury this becomes a more difficult position to maintain), then why couldn’t the more talented Aiken do the same or better this year?
My number one hope above all else right now is for whatever team that drafts Aiken does so with a plan in place for his recovery. More to the point, I hope they take the long view with him and don’t give in to rushing his recovery in any way. He’s so damn talented (and young for his class) that the lost developmental time is hardly a killer in the long run. After getting his feet wet in Rookie ball next summer, he could be on a path that would include combined A ball in 2017, AA in 2018, and a shot at the big leagues at some point in 2019. That’s probably too slow a timeline for most fans and/or bosses with jobs on the line (he’d still just be 23 that August), so I could see wanting to pass on him. You could conceivably move that up a bit (skip Low-A, go A+/AA in 2017, AA/AAA in 2018 before potentially getting an audition for the ’19 rotation that September), but, advanced or not (and he is quite advanced, make no mistake), that’s a really aggressive path for a “high school” arm like Aiken. And, of course, this all assumes no setbacks, on the field or otherwise.
As mentioned previously, I think there is enough high-end pitching talent in this class that passing on an injured pitcher like Aiken or Matuella (who has looked really good and healthy of late), talented as they may be, would be justified. I’d lean towards taking the risk right now, but that’s easy to say in March…and when all that is at stake is your internet reputation and not your livelihood.
See the bolded part in that last paragraph? See how quickly things can change when following the draft? Damn. I’ve just depressed myself unintentionally from the past. Let’s get positive…
Buehler and Tate: both as advertised all year long. Strong argument to be made that they are the 1-2 in terms of college pitching in this class, though the order would be flipped (Tate then Buehler). Funkhouser and Twomey have also come on strong of late. I think the former might just pitch his way into top ten lock status soon (I’m still more in like with him than in love with him, but I’m a bit behind on his recent performances so we’ll see) while the latter could still sneak himself into the back of the first round.
The Baseball Draft Report 