2017 Big Ten All-Draft Team (Hitters)
First Team
C – Matt Byars
1B – Alex Troop
2B – Mason McCoy
SS – Kevin Smith
3B – Luke Miller
OF – Zach Jancarski, Miles Lewis, Brandon Hughes
Second Team
C – Harrison Wenson
1B – Drew Lugbauer
2B – Dan Durkin
SS – Jalen Washington
3B – Micah Coffey
OF – Mike Carter, Tre’ Gantt, Logan Sowers
Matt Byars is the kind of senior-sign catching prospect I like. His is a defense forward profile (plus arm, well above-average mobility behind the plate, strong feel for the rhythms of the game) with enough offensive upside (average raw power, back-to-back solid years of production) to give you something at the plate. Harrison Wenson isn’t that far behind, but buying on him takes more of a leap of faith with both his glove and his approach. The power and arm strength are both legit. A friend compared him to a budget version of current Phillies catcher and 2010 third round pick Cameron Rupp. Their college numbers to date…
.246/.325/.439 with 27.0 K% and 8.0 BB%
.302/.385/.489 with 20.7 K% and 10.3 BB%
Wenson on top, Rupp on bottom. I’d say stylistically it holds up, but that’s about it. Both are big, strong old school catchers known more for raw power and arm strength than graceful movements or soft hands behind the dish. Rupp was and is a much better player, though. I’m not in love with this as a comparison, but it came from somebody smart so figured there’s no harming sending it along. I personally disagree with it — though, again, if you’re just trying to close your eyes and picture what Wenson looks like it’s not a terrible proxy — so feel free to do the same. Or not. It’s a free country…for now. Political hot take!
Every last person I’ve talked to this spring has told me in no uncertain terms I’m nuts for preferring Alex Troop as a hitter rather than a pitcher. I give up. While I still think Troop has a fine future as a position player — enough so that ranking him atop his position here was a no-brainer for me — at some point the consensus broke me. I don’t think it’s going with the herd just to do it; as much as I try to remain independent and unmoved by others (within reason) in my prospect views, there are occasionally times when I can admit that maybe I’ve gone a little too far. When everybody thinks you are nuts, it’s possible that they are wrong and you’re right…but it’s also possible they know things you don’t, you learn from it, and you adjust your views accordingly. That’s where I’m at with Troop. I think he’s a wonderful college hitter with the chance to be an average or better regular at first or in an outfield corner in pro ball, but his value on the mound is too great to ignore. His changeup alone makes keeping him pitching a good idea. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s got imposing size (6-5, 210 pounds), room to add to his fastball (86-92 MPH presently), a usable breaker, and a nice mix of performance (almost a strikeout per inning this year) and projection (that size, his two-way pedigree, and cold weather background all point to better days ahead).
Beyond two-way star Troop, there are plenty of truer first base options in the Big 10. The first name to jump out is Drew Lugbauer, a somewhat ironic mention considering the argument to be made about him not being a “true first base” option either. Lugbauer, experienced at both catcher and third base in addition to first, has been one of the more confounding players in this class for me. I’ve yet to get to the point where I’m comfortable locking him in to a long-term defensive spot. Some say he can catch, some think he’s a first baseman only, and others think he could hang as a four-corners style utility player. I have no idea, so, erring on the side of caution (and siding with the most vocal group of outside opinions), he slots into first base on these lists. It goes without saying that Lugbauer is a whole lot more interesting as a catcher or multi-position threat, but there’s at least a glimmer of a chance his bat plays at first as is. His plus to arguably plus-plus raw power is enough to rank him among the top handful of college players in this class and his strength to all fields is something that hasn’t gone unnoticed to teams that preach that type of hitting approach.
Right there with Lugbauer is Jake Adams. The big righty has monster raw power, above-average athleticism around the bag, and questions to answer about his propensity for swinging and missing. All in all, it’s a tantalizing mid-round profile with more than enough upside to justify the downside of a 30ish K% guy who doesn’t get out of High-A. I’m in.
Any of the first basemen beyond these three are draftable talents depending on what you like, but in the interest of time we’ll hone in on just one more. Nebraska’s Scott Schreiber is a really interesting player who could wind up a steal for a team with a long memory. Schreiber’s 2017 hasn’t been great — an admittedly odd thing to say for a guy hitting .325, but his power and approach have both gone south after a breakout sophomore season — so teams that saw him at his best previously could be rewarded by his plus raw power, strong arm, and potential positional versatility (outfield corners are both an option). He’s behind a few other guys at the moment, but with a far enough slide on draft day he could wind up a really slick value.
I’m a little surprised that I didn’t write about Mason McCoy last year. Could have something to do with him just having a decent first year at Iowa, but, regardless, he’s my kind of player. There’s nothing particularly flashy about McCoy’s game — average hit tool, average or better speed, average at best arm — but he’s, pardon the term, a gamer who gets the most out of his tools. It’s a strong utility profile that I think will play at the next level, though I’d be a little concerned about the arm being a touch short for the left side. Beyond that, McCoy can hold his own.
If you know what to make of Kevin Smith these days, please don’t hesitate to drop me a line. Scouts who know things (or think they know things, which is really all any of us can claim in this line of work) won’t shut up about the guy. Everybody seemed to love him after a great freshman season (sure, I could see that), more or less stayed on the bandwagon after a solid if concerning sophomore season (that 16 BB/49 K red flag was a bit too bright for me), and then fell back in love harder than ever after his successful (but still concerning) turn on the Cape this past summer. So what do the scouts see in Smith, a player that I have in my notes as “deeply polarizing” among those I’ve spoken to, that the numbers may not pick up? For starters, he’s a rock solid defender at shortstop with easy above-average range and sure hands that allow him to make damn near every play hit near him. He’s got enough arm to handle throws deep in the hole and athleticism to get to them in the first place. That strong defensive foundation makes him a worthwhile follow off the bat. He becomes even more interesting once you factor in his true above-average raw power, a rarity for a middle infielder at the amateur level even in the age of tool inflation (something I’m guilty of, I admit).
It’s the approach that kills me. I’ve spoken a few times about hitters that scouts believe will turn their underwhelming BB/K numbers around with continued reps. That’s Smith. His reputation as a hitter is very strong, and the vast majority of feedback I’ve received on him as been positive. “He’ll figure it out,” is a familiar refrain. Maybe. I bought into it with Kyle Lewis last year, but Smith’s track record is tough to ignore. Even his star turn on the Cape came with an overall 9 BB/39 K disclaimer.
Whenever I stumped on player like I am with Smith, I like to turn to my old familiar (unpopular) friend: Mr. Comp. Check out a couple of college lines…
.265/.333/.443 with 16.9 K% and 7.9 BB%
.310/.367/.473 with 9.5 K% and 7.2 BB%
Top is Smith (so far), bottom is Zack Cozart at Mississippi. Cozart is the name that has been mentioned by Baseball America as a point of comparison for Smith in the past. Pretty good comp, I think. Tools line up fairly well and production isn’t completely off the mark. Cozart went to Cincinnati with pick 79 in 2007. I’ll offer a potential high-end comparison for Smith that I like a lot…
.265/.333/.443 with 16.9 K% and 7.9 BB%
.285/.367/.428 with 14.8 K% and 11.3 BB%
Top is still Smith, bottom is now Marcus Semien at Cal. I think Semien is the kind of hitter that Smith can be at his best. Semien fell to to the sixth round in 2011. I think Smith has too many fans to drop that far this year, but stranger things have happened. The closest stylistic and statistical comp I found was this one…
.265/.333/.443 with 16.9 K% and 7.9 BB%
.303/.391/.458 with 17.2 K% and 8.6 BB%
Top remains Smith, bottom is this guy per Baseball America’s pre-draft scouting report…
Defensively, his range is fair and his glove work is unorthodox, but he does possess a strong arm. While he handled shortstop well for Team USA last summer, Espinosa is not a pure shortstop and may be better suited to second base or as a utility player. His intelligent and aggressive baserunning masks raw speed that is only average. A switch-hitter, Espinosa has always been stronger from his natural right side, but improved from the left this year. He takes a wicked cut at anything close, and when he squares a pitch up he can produce screaming drives to all fields. Most scouts want to see more plate discipline and patience from Espinosa, who’s considered a streak hitter. His lack of overwhelming tools will keep him out of the first two rounds, but he has a lot of attributes scouts love, including the knack to make those around him better.
I was going to redact the name and make it a big unveil here, but what’s a couple of centimeters of suspense (less on mobile, I’d assume) really worth? So the mystery guy is Danny Espinosa. I think Smith and Espinosa — the 87th overall pick in 2008, for what it’s worth — are similar ballplayers in a lot of ways. Smith gets the slim defensive edge at the same point in their respective development while Espinosa was arguably the better all-around athlete. Beyond that, I think they are close. Now sometimes comparisons are based on career outcomes and sometimes they are more closely aligned with pure physical ability; this one feels closer to the latter category as I think a team drafting Smith as early as I think it’ll take to get him will be doing so with the hope they get a more consistent offensive performer. That said, Espinosa’s 11.0 fWAR to date is nothing to be sad about; if anything, an outcome like that is a major success once you realize a college hitter selected in the draft’s top 100 picks providing greater than 10 WAR over a career is at just 6.9%. If Smith really is Espinosa, that’s a major win. If he’s Espinosa with a better bat, then he’s a potential star-caliber player in terms of overall value. If you think of Espinosa as something closer to Smith’s ceiling (with the obvious risk he never makes the big leagues at all factored in), then that changes the math yet again.
The average draft position of the three comps was 122nd overall. The fourth round feels like a fair spot for Smith at this juncture, though the dearth of collegiate middle infield talent and typical draft day shortstop inflation could push him up closer to that Cozart/Espinosa early third round range. I think that’s where he likely lands (if not earlier), but I’m still not sure if that’s where he’ll eventually be ranked here.
It should come as no surprise that I love a prospect who has played quality defense at both shortstop and catcher. Who couldn’t love a weird profile like that, right? That’s Jalen Washington, Ohio State’s current shortstop and former catcher. Washington was good at both spots with the athleticism to play just about anywhere else on the diamond. I mean, if you can play well at both short and catcher, where can’t you play? His offensive profile is a little shakier — lots of pop and good speed, but little feel for hitting and an iffy approach — so bringing him into the fold would require plenty of patience with the bat while his defensive versatility keeps him in the lineup. I don’t know what kind of upside you’re getting with Washington, but he’d sure be a fun gap-filler in the minors as he tries to figure out the whole hitting thing.
Luke Miller is an awesome athlete with a big arm (up to 94 off the mound in the past) and just as much power (whatever the power equivalent to a low-90s fastball would be, I guess). I’m intrigued as I get for an inexperienced draft-eligible sophomore who has put up ugly BB/K numbers to date. Many (but not all) of the same things can be said for Micah Coffey, another athletic power bat with less than ideal plate discipline. In a weak year for third basemen not only in the Big Ten but also across the country, imperfect players with upside like these stand out.
I don’t want to say how long I deliberated on picking six outfielders out of the Big Ten’s solid if unspectacular 2017 class. Let’s just settle on “way too long” and move on. In the end, I tried my best to balance tools/projection and skills/production. That’s kind of the whole point of what we do here anyway, so I guess that sort of goes without saying. Zach Jancarski is a gifted center fielder with above-average speed and the ability to grind out at bats as well as the best leadoff types in college baseball. Miles Lewis joins big Jake Adams as the second player here with North Dakota ties. He’s a plus athlete with easy to identify physical gifts (tons of speed and range) who keeps improving daily at some of the game’s finer points. If signable (he’s a redshirt-sophomore), I’d do what I could to talk my bosses into giving him a shot at pro ball this year before he blows up in the college ranks next season. Brandon Hughes‘s inclusion on the first team makes it clear I have a thing for Michigan State two-way talents (Hughes has been 88-91 as a lefty off the mound in the past) who seem to be wildly underrated as hitters. Like our first two outfielders mentioned, Hughes can defend in center and swipe bags with above-average to plus speed. He’s got a little more power and a little less swing-and-miss than you’d think for a prospect rarely mentioned as one of draft’s top sleepers. That changes now: Hughes is probably too good to be called a sleeper, but I’m doing it anyway. He’s a really good young player.
On the second team, the focus moved more towards finding bats at any cost. Tre’ Gantt is the exception as yet another interesting up-the-middle talent who can run. Mike Carter and Logan Sowers, however, are examples of what it looks like to bet on bats. Though they go about things very differently, the two young hitters should both hear their names called during the draft next month. Sowers is the more conventional prospect as a big (6-4, 220) powerful athlete who can thrill with a long ball just as readily as disappoint with a three strikeout night. The 5-10, 180 pound Carter can’t match Sowers’s thump, but the line drive machine from Rutgers has a hit tool that is quietly one of this class’s best.
Leaving off highly productive outfielders like Tom Marcinczyk, Jordan Smith, Johnny Slater, Joe Hoscheit, and Alex Krupa was tough. All have done enough to warrant serious draft consideration. This should be a pretty happy draft year for fans of the Big 10.
Others receiving consideration…
C – Tyler Cropley, Justin Morris
1B – Jake Adams, Zack McGuire, Toby Hanson, Scott Schreiber, Nick Cieri
2B – Jake Bivens, Jake Schleppenbach, Evan Warden, Luke Pettersen, Tony Butler, Brandon Gum
SS – Michael Brdar, Harry Shipley
3B – Matt Hoeg
OF – Tom Marcinczyk, Jordan Smith, Pat McInerney, Chris Whelan, Johnny Slater, Joe Hoscheit, Matt Hopfner, Alex Boxwell, Craig Dedelow, Dan Chmielewski, Matt Stemper, Luis Alvarado, Laren Eustace, Alex Krupa, Madison Nickens
2017 Atlantic Sun All-Draft Team (Hitters)
C – Griffin Helms
1B – Austin Upshaw
2B – Hunter Hanks
SS – Julio Gonzalez
3B – Alex Merritt
OF – Michael Gigliotti, JJ Shimko, Taylor Allum
The offensive headliners in the Atlantic Sun this year can be found roaming the outfields. Michael Gigliotti, who has been compared to both Leonys Martin and Josh Hart by Perfect Game in the past, was the consensus top hitter in the conference coming into the year, but a down draft season has opened the door for challengers to his throne to rise up. The most impressive of said challengers is JJ Shimko, a player with similar strengths (hit tool, speed, arm, CF range, approach) and weaknesses (mainly power). As I’ve said a few times this spring already, players like Gigliotti and Shimko would have been really high on my board in previous years. This year, however, I’m finding myself a little burnt out on non-power types. That’s probably not a fair characterization of either player — Gigliotti and Shimko both have average raw power even if it’s only really shown up for them in one of their three respective college seasons — but it isn’t so far off the mark that I have to rewrite this whole paragraph. Thank goodness for that.
The positive sell on both guys is pretty easy: both are natural center fielders who can run, throw, and, most importantly, hit. Add in positive plate discipline indicators and it’s enough to help both guys profile as potential average to slightly above-average regulars once defense and base running are factored in. One comp for Gigliotti that comes to mind is Jackie Bradley Jr. Their college stat comparison is a little interesting…
.306/.418/.429 with 98 BB/97 K and 58/73 SB
.331/.425/.530 with 97 BB/106 K and 17/23 SB
Top is Gigliotti, bottom is Bradley Jr. You could elaborate on the comp with the qualifier “less pop, more speed,” but at that point does the comp still hold water? Yeah, he’s just like Jackie Bradley Jr. except he’s faster but with less power…and, oh yeah, maybe he’ll wind up hitting for a higher average, too. I don’t know. I tried.
I do like Gigliotti a little more than Shimko, but not by as large a margin as I assume the industry leaders will separate the two come draft day. If the choice is Gigliotti in round two or Shimko in round eight, I’m cool grabbing a surer thing power-wise and waiting on the true center fielder until later.
I’ve got nothing on fellow Taylor Allum minus the obvious that is his outstanding 2017 performance. In a thin outfield class beyond the big two of Gigliotti and Shimko, that’s more than enough to get a seat at the table. He’s high on my list of players I’d like to find out more about between now and June.
Griffin Helms‘s tools have long fascinated me, but an ugly BB/K has been as much a part of his game as his plus athleticism and enticing power/speed/defensive upside. If he slips because of that iffy plate discipline, he could be a fun mid-round value play for a team with a strong track record of channeling overly aggressive hitters towards positive outcomes.
All four first basemen listed could be drafted next month, but the two that stand out above the rest are Nick Rivera and Austin Upshaw. Picking between the two is an admittedly pointless exercise — that’s harsh, but seeing as both guys should be available late in the draft so teams could easily take both at a low cost if they really can’t decide — created solely to fit the little all-conference gimmick I’ve got going here, but I suppose it’s ultimately of some value if a hypothetical either/or situation comes up for a scouting director in June. Forced to choose just one guy, I’d go Upshaw due to his present power, room to put on some bulk, and command of the strike zone. Rivera, no slouch in any of those departments, is a little older and little more physically maxed out; some teams may prefer that to Upshaw, a potential senior-sign next year like Rivera is now, while other teams may go for the younger, slenderer type. Not for nothing, but doesn’t slenderer feel like a word that shouldn’t exist? Looks weird, sounds weird.
Hunter Hanks‘s average tools could give him a shot to play a long time in pro ball as a potential utility guy, especially if you buy the glove and arm as good enough to handle short in a pinch as I do. Same goes for Julio Gonzalez, a more natural shortstop currently in the midst of a really impressive draft season. All my notes on him focused on his glove coming into the year — generally positive buzz there, for what it’s worth — but the bat coming on this strong has been a pleasant surprise. He joins Allum on my list of guys I need to find out more about over these next few weeks. Lee Solomon could also join the utility player party, but more of a combo second base/outfielder type. People I’ve heard from swear he’s the same game this year as last minus some bad luck on balls in play. If that’s the case, he could go a lot higher than his current .236/.357/.348 line might suggest.
Others receiving consideration…
C – Jake Perry, Austin Hale
1B – Nick Rivera, Charlie Carpenter, Christian Diaz
2B – Lee Solomon, Grant Williams, Matt Reardon, Patrick Ervin
SS – N/A
3B – Jeremy Howell
OF – Eli Lovell, Gage Morey, Nathan Koslowski, Evan Pietronico, Chris Thibideau, Wesley Weeks, Yahir Gurrola
2017 Atlantic 10 All-Draft Team (Hitters)
C – Deon Stafford
1B – Bobby Campbell
2B – Daniel Brumbaugh
SS – Cole Peterson
3B – Carter Hanford
OF – Cam Johnson, Logan Farrar, Jordan Powell
If I were to rank the position player prospects in the Atlantic 10 this year, the list would probably look something like this: 1) Deon Stafford, 2) Deon Stafford, and 3) Deon Stafford. There’s really nobody close to Stafford’s level of talent and production in the conference. I’ve seen a good bit of Stafford over the years, something that can either be good if you trust my firsthand takes or bad if you think I’m either a) full of it (very possible, FWIW), or b) biased towards a local prospect I’ve watched grow into a potential top one hundred pick.
My #notascout observations on him are fairly straightforward: fantastic athlete, average or better speed (timed him above-average to first on a single last weekend), above-average to plus arm strength (though I haven’t gotten a clean in-game pop from him yet this season to update this), at least above-average raw power, average or better hit tool, patient yet aggressive approach, great build/physical strength, clear leadership skills and passion for the game (as noted by my wife, who’s far more into that type of thing, on multiple occasions), and an overall plus package of defensive tools (mobility, hands, release, fearlessness).
For as much as I made about the gap between Stafford and the rest of the conference, it’s only fair to point out there are a bunch of quality catching prospects in the Atlantic 10 beyond Stafford. Feedback (that I ignored) on James Morisano before the season was that he was a prospect on the same level as Stafford. He’s not, but that doesn’t make him chopped liver. Or maybe he is because chopped liver can be delicious if mushed up in a nice chicken liver pâté. Either way, Morisano is a good athlete who should have no problem sticking behind the dish in the long run while showing off above-average power at it. The bat might be a little light to play regularly, but there’s a chance he’s a high-level backup for a long time.
Martin Figueroa‘s down senior season doesn’t change the fact he brings a long track record of hitting for both average and power. He might be more of a utility type at the next level — he has experience at third and in the outfield corners — but anybody who can at least fake it behind the plate and hit like him deserves a shot in pro ball.
All I know about Bobby Campbell is that he has power, he can play third base in a pinch, and he controlz the strike zone (58 BB/63 K career to date) like nobody’s business. The typo in that sentence was entirely accidental, but I’m leaving it in to underscore how impressed I am by Campbell’s approach. Plus, it highlights how edgy and cool and up with the latest trends (trendz?) I am. Between Campbell, Darian Carpenter, and Brian Fortier, the A-10 has a chance to put three quality senior-sign power hitting first base prospects in pro ball this year. Not too shabby.
Cole Peterson is a fun mix of patience, pop, and speed at shortstop. An edge in speed is what gave him the starting spot on this team over Vinny Capra, a good looking young bat (“pesky [hitter] with real sock” is how he was described to me) in his own right. Carter Hanford is a solid defender at the hot corner with power to all fields. Isaiah Pasteur, sitting out the season after transferring in to George Washington from Indiana, could get drafted even with the year off. He’s yet to show much at the plate, but there aren’t many young third basemen out there that can match his blend of athleticism, speed, and arm strength.
We knew Cam Johnson could run and hit a bit coming into the season, but his power bump has been a pleasant development. Logan Farrar has a quality approach and some defensive versatility (all three outfield spots plus second base). Jordan Powell might have to wait another year like Farrar did, but he fits the speed/CF range mold that can sometimes get some late round love.
Also receiving consideration…
C – Martin Figueroa, Brandon Chapman, James Morisano, Mark Donadio
1B – Darian Carpenter, Brian Fortier
2B – Michael Smith, Jared Baldinelli, Chris Hess, Robbie Metz
SS – Alex King, Vinny Capra, Alec Acosta
3B – Matt O’Neil, Isaiah Pasteur
OF – Aaron Case, Cal Jadacki, Tyler Nelin, DJ Lee, Mike Corin, Joey Bartosic, Ryan MacCarrick, Parker Sniatynski, David Vaccaro, Will Robertson, Nick Reeser, Trent Leimkuehler
2017 AAC All-Draft Team (Hitters)
C – Connor Wong
1B – Ryan Noda
2B – Jake Scheiner
SS – Kevin Merrell
3B – Willy Yahn
OF – Corey Julks, Luke Hamblin, Chris Carrier
The easiest name to pencil in to this team is Kevin Merrell, a top tier prospect and potential top 100 player in this class. Merrell, a pre-season FAVORITE and the top college shortstop in the country per my as yet unpublished positional rankings, checks every box for me when searching for a potential above-average up the middle talent: he’s crazy athletic, defensively versatile (love him at second, like him at short, intrigued by him in center), an easy plus runner, and, thanks to a damn near ideal draft year power surge, a legitimate threat to pop one to the gap every time he steps to the plate. The fact he’s proven at second base with the plus to plus-plus speed to excel in center gives him two excellent fallback options in the event shortstop doesn’t work out. I see no reason why it wouldn’t — the athleticism, hands, and arm (at least average) all play — but it’s nice to know you’ve got alternatives if things do change. With no major weaknesses and a bushel of pronounced strengths (speed, defense, pop, patience), I don’t think it’s unreasonable to project star upside when it comes to Merrell’s future. He’s going to be high on my list for sure.
Jake Scheiner may not have standout tools, but his production over the years, including a first year run at Houston matched by few in college baseball this season, is too good to ignore. My only notes on him coming into the year are short and sweet: “damn good hit tool.” Defensively, I’ve heard mixed opinions on the likelihood he can stick at his college position of shortstop. There are some who think he’s just athletic enough to pull it off, but most seem to believe he’s best as an offensive second baseman and/or utility infielder. I’d have no qualms drafting him as a shortstop with the plan to develop him at second if need be (there’s no shame in playing second once you make it to pro ball) before exploring that utility option. I like Scheiner a lot.
I was ready to write how I’m cooling on Connor Wong just a bit by pointing out that maybe his best potential outcome has dipped from future big league regular behind the plate to quality backup catcher and/or multi-position chess piece. Turns out I pretty much tackled this very subject about six weeks ago…
You may want to sit down for this, but Wong’s athleticism and plan of attack at the plate are what separates him from many otherwise similarly skilled contemporaries. Shocking that an athlete with patience would rank high on this list, yet here we are. In Wong’s case, there’s really no denying his chops. He has the fluidity behind the plate you’d expect from a former shortstop, a position some think he could still handle in a pinch, and occasional outfielder. Wong has been a little slow to pick up on some of the finer points of catching technique since making the switch — his feet are fine, but his hands still can get him in trouble — so it’s fair to wonder if a multi-position utility future could be his most useful long-term defensive deployment. I’m not completely sold on Wong’s power coming around enough to make him an impact starter at the next level, but the offensive strengths, including average to above-average speed and a knack for consistent hard contact against quality pitching, outweigh the weaknesses at this time.
Ryan Noda is an underrated athlete with plus raw power and unique (gloveless) swing mechanics. I’ve gone back and forth about his best position in pro ball — his experience in the outfield and strong arm could give him a shot there depending on what team he lands with — but ultimately went with first base for reasons both good (he’s quite strong there defensively) and practical (physically, he looks more like a first baseman than a corner outfielder). At the other infield corner, Willy Yahn makes hard contract and controls the zone as well as any hitter in the country this side of Ernie Clement. Like Clement, Yahn is a good athlete who can defend multiple spots in the infield. I don’t know how guys with their offensive profiles (i.e., low BB%, low K%) as college hitters tend to fare in pro ball (note to self: revisit this as part of a summer research project), but I’m looking forward to finding out with our admittedly tiny sample of two. Yahn is at 7.2 K% and 4.0 BB% so far in his college career. Clement is at 4.0 K% and 3.8 BB%. The list of players who have or had single-digit K% and BB% this decade: Juan Pierre, Jeff Keppinger, Placido Polanco, Marco Scutaro, Nori Aoki, Carlos Lee (!), Andrelton Simmons, Ben Revere, and Alberto Callaspo. Of that group, only three (Scutaro, Aoki, Guerrero) have/had put up league average offensive numbers by wRC+. I don’t know what any of this means other than Yahn and Clement will bring profoundly unique offensive approaches into pro ball. Can’t wait to see how it translates…and looking forward to revisiting this next year one the Nick Madrigal debates begin.
There’s not a ton to get excited about in this outfield — to this point, I almost feel like I’m blanking on an obvious name…let me know if that’s the case, please — but that won’t stop me from mining for hidden gems all the same. Corey Julks is an above-average runner with burgeoning power and exciting bat speed. It may be more of a fourth outfielder profile once you add it all up, but there’s room in pro ball for guys with his brand of well-rounded skill set. Chris Carrier has interesting power and Luke Hamblin has solid speed. Considered fellow senior-sign possibility Jarret DeHart (power/speed guy with questionable approach) over Hamblin based on upside, so don’t be shocked if that switch is made by the final rankings. Assuming I get deep enough in the rankings to where guys like DeHart and Hamblin live. And assuming anybody will read that far down a list if I make it…
Others receiving consideration…
C – Levi Borders, Travis Watkins, Logan Heiser
1B – Lex Kaplan, Hunter Williams
2B – Charlie Yorgen, Brandon Grudzielanek, Connor Hollis
SS – Wesley Phillips
3B – Connor McVey, Kam Gellinger, Eric Tyler, Hunter Hope
OF – Jarret DeHart, RJ Thompson, Isaac Feldstein, Tyler Webb, Eli Putnam
2017 America East All-Draft Team (Hitters)
C – Erik Ostberg
1B – Casey Baker
2B – Ben Prada
SS – Ben Bengtson
3B – TJ Ward
OF – Toby Handley, CJ Krowiak, Andrew Casali
The only tier one player in the conference this year is Erik Ostberg, a hitting machine with a strong arm behind the plate and solid speed on the basepaths. The man is currently hitting an even .500, so any questions about his bat can be referred right back to that nice round figure. I feel a little bit about Ostberg as I do Drew Ellis of Louisville. In both cases, the bat is so appealing that I’m willing to overlook some of the defensive questions. If Ostberg can catch — I think he can, for what it’s worth — then he’s a slam dunk top hundred prospect for me (probably…I shouldn’t say things like that without actually beginning to set up a board). If he can’t, then he’s strong enough with the stick to remain a viable prospect somewhere lower (first base, presumably) on the defensive spectrum. I’m all-in on Ostberg.
In almost any other year, a player like Hunter Dolshun would get the honors as top catcher in the conference. Again, it may be a bit too early to make such broad proclamations, but I feel good about the claim that Dolshun is one of the physically strongest players in his class. You know you’re getting that tremendous strength, plus raw power, and a patient hitter when taking a shot on Dolshun. You may or may not know what you’re getting defensively; some I’ve chatted up are sold that he can make it work behind the plate while others think he’s a little too stiff. I think he’s good enough back there, but, really, it may not matter all that much depending on how far he drops. At some point in the draft you know you’re getting imperfect prospects and I think that’s the range when Dolshun will likely go off the board. Can he catch? Don’t know for sure, but I’ll sure as heck not stress about it either way once he slips past the first few rounds (or later if a team doesn’t buy him as a high-value senior-sign in rounds eight/nine/ten).
I know little about both Christopher Bec and Zack Bright, but both had the kind of draft year production that gets you on the radar. Evan Harasta, Jason Agresti, and David Real are all quality mid- to late-round options as well. Harasta has more power than he’s shown, Agresti is a good albeit too aggressive hitter, and Real, a transfer from Arizona, shows strong control of the strike zone.
Casey Baker gets the nod over some stiff competition in an unusually deep year of America East first base prospects. Justin Yurchak is the clear 1b to Baker’s 1a, but the latter narrowly edges out the former on the basis of slightly more interesting raw power. You really can’t go wrong with either pick, though. I’ve long been a fan of David MacKinnon for similar reasons (hit tool, approach, athleticism, defense) while also being a little wary of him going forward for the same potential fatal flaw (lack of pop for the position). I’m more excited to take natural hitters with some power upside rather than huge power guys without much of a clue how to consistently make contact, so keep that potential bias in mind as you peruse my rankings.
Ben Bengtson (1-1 potential if draft standing was based on likelihood I spell your name wrong between now and June) has a long history of big offense with more than enough athleticism and bat speed (plus a fine approach) to give confidence he’s more than beating up on inferior pitching. The high level of certainty he sticks at shortstop — as close to a lock as it gets in this college class for me — is icing on the cake. Ben Prada takes second base based on the two sweetest words in the English language; I couldn’t find any other noteworthy 2017 America East middle infielders outside of Prada, Bengtson, and Paul Rufo, but I’m open to suggestions if you know of anybody I’m missing. TJ Ward could belong with that group if a team believes he can play shortstop in the pros. I like him best at third, clearly.
I know I’ve referenced this before, but I can’t help but do it again.
Toby Handley has always been known as a quality runner who could catch and throw in center field. His senior year power spike is something smart teams should be looking into as much as feasible this spring. Change in approach? Change in swing? Change in body? Or just a combination of a smaller sample and advanced age working in concert to inflate his output? I don’t have the answers yet. In the past I’ve been incredulous about big senior season jumps like this (.089 ISO to .235 ISO), but I randomly happened to look back at what I wrote about Garrett Stubbs, a huge pro favorite at the moment, when he was a senior at USC. I had the same questions about his senior year power boost; no two players follow identical developmental paths so maybe this isn’t as instructive a flashback as I’d like to think, but so far so good with the “realness” of Stubbs’s growth. Handley isn’t Stubbs 2.0, of course; I’m just saying that dismissing a senior year bump, something I’ve done too readily in the past, can cause you to miss out on some pretty good players. Don’t sleep on Handley just because he’s a senior is the overarching message, I suppose.
Andrew Casali hasn’t made quite the same senior season power gains — if anything he’s showing less this year — but he offers a similar package of speed and defense in center field. Casali also makes a ton of contact and has a keen awareness of what constitutes a ball vs a strike. Everything good about Casali applies just as easily to CJ Krowiak. A pre-season FAVORITE, Krowiak is an easy plus runner and defender in center who is both a sensational athlete and a true student of the game. I think the best is yet to come for him.
Other prospects that received consideration…
C – Hunter Dolshun, Christopher Bec, Evan Harasta, Jason Agresti, David Real, Zack Bright
1B – Justin Yurchak, Jamie Switalski, David MacKinnon, Andrew Gazzola, Brendan Skidmore
2B – N/A
SS – Paul Rufo
3B – N/A
OF – Connor Powers, Tyler Schwanz, Colby Maiola, Nick Campana, Collin Stack
2017 ACC All-Draft Team (Hitters)
Brendan McKay, Adam Haseley, Pavin Smith, and Drew Ellis are the four clear top tier ACC hitting prospects in the 2017 MLB Draft. I’m not sure anybody would quibble with the first three — though you’re free to do so, of course — so that leaves Ellis as the only somewhat controversial pick. I’d like to think my love for him is pretty well established by now, so I won’t go into too much detail why I think the present .405/.500/.759 hitter with plus raw power and more walks than strikeouts deserves serious first round consideration. Some clarity on his long-term defensive home would be nice, but I’m not sure it’s necessarily needed with how he’s hitting. As a third baseman, he’s a potential star. Same for a corner outfield spot. At first base, the bar is raised high enough that you’d have to knock him down the board just a bit, but not all that far considering the confidence I have in him continuing to hit past the necessary threshold to start in the big leagues there. There’s more to player evaluation than college production (duh), but worth pointing out that Ellis and McKay, more likely to go out as a hitter with every passing four homer day, have very similar 2017 numbers. If the latter is a slam dunk starter at first at the next level, then why couldn’t Ellis do the same if that’s what it comes down to?
Beyond that foursome, things are wide open. I’d be willing to hear arguments on any of the following seven players being tier one prospects: Taylor Walls, Brian Miller, Colby Fitch, Gavin Sheets, Stuart Fairchild, Logan Warmoth, and Devin Hairston. That’s six up-the-middle prospects plus the seemingly unstoppable bat of Sheets. The next tier down includes too many players to even bother listing at this point. I mean, I’ll do it anyway because writing more than necessary is true to my #brand, but it’s almost too many names to derive much meaning beyond “damn, the ACC is stacked this year.” There are consensus favorites with impressive tools who have underwhelmed (note: we’re only using “underwhelmed” in the context of incredibly high expectations of on-field numbers; none of these guys are having bad years by any stretch, it’s just that they are showing one or more flaws that would need to be addressed by any interested front office) from a performance standpoint to date (Evan Mendoza, Logan Taylor, Carl Chester, Kyle Datres, Joe Dunand) as well as personal favorites like Rhett Aplin, Wade Bailey, Reed Rohlman, Trevor Craport, Cody Roberts, Ben Breazeale, Robbie Coman (who, incidentally, I’ll be very glad once he’s drafted and gone from my life since my fingers want to spell his last name “Comand” every single time), Ernie Clement, Tyler Lynn, Bruce Stell, and Charlie Cody…damn, the ACC really is stacked this year.
Here are some All-Draft Prospect Teams that I whipped up while my computer was dead last week. I’m going to try to do these for as many conferences as I can squeeze in. The depth of the ACC let me go three teams deep. Here’s the first team…
First Team
C – Colby Fitch
1B – Pavin Smith
2B – Taylor Walls
SS – Logan Warmoth
3B – Drew Ellis
OF – Adam Haseley, Brian Miller, Stuart Fairchild
I think every one of these guys has been covered by now with the exception of Stuart Fairchild. The Wake Forest center fielder has one of this year’s most well-rounded skill sets. Averages dot his card with above-averages within range (perhaps a plus for speed) depending on how much you like him. Fairchild is also one of this class’s “great approach, hasn’t really shown it” types. Everybody who has seen him has raved to me about his pitch recognition, ability to spoil good pitchers’s pitches, and general knowledge of the strike zone, but his BB/K ratios have been up (39/42 last year) and down (18/40 as a freshman, 22/37 so far this year) throughout his college career. Count me in as a believer that the results will catch up to his talent in pro ball. Fairchild has the ceiling of a first-division regular in center with a mature enough present skill set that seems too strong across the board to result in a complete flame out. In English, I like both his ceiling and floor quite a bit.
What you think about Taylor Walls‘s defense should dictate how high you’re willing to run him up your board. Indecisive internet draft writer that I am, I vacillate between shortstop and second base on him far more often than I’d like to admit. Case in point: when I wrote this last night, I decided on second base for him. The logic there was simple: his arm may be a bit light for short and erring on the side of caution in cases like these (i.e, if there’s debate on whether or not an amateur guy will stick at a position, chances are he won’t) often proves the smartest strategy in the long run. On the other hand, his range is great, he’s an above-average runner (a solid proxy for athleticism), and some of the mixed opinions on his arm have it closer to playing plus than anything. So…I don’t know. I’m leaning shortstop today after having him as a second baseman yesterday. Ask me again tomorrow and I might make him a free safety. Wherever he plays, he’s a keeper. Maybe you don’t see a regular when looking at him (or maybe you do), but it’s hard not to see a big league player in some capacity.
I’m still not convinced Adam Haseley isn’t a top ten player in this class. Maybe I’m nuts. I can live with that. I also don’t see why the aforementioned Drew Ellis can’t crack the top thirty. These are really good players. The feeling I get about Ellis reminds me a little bit how I felt about Edwin Rios, sixth round steal by the Dodgers in 2015. I loved Rios then (ranked 119, drafted 192) and I love Ellis even more now. The second he inevitably falls out of the first round, he’ll then become one of this draft’s best value picks.
Second Team
C – Cody Roberts
1B – Brendan McKay
2B – Wade Bailey
SS – Devin Hairston
3B – Charlie Cody
OF – Tyler Lynn, Logan Taylor, Carl Chester
Happy to keep banging the drum for Charlie Cody from now until draft day. He can hit. Putting him back at his high school position of third base in the pros takes a significant leap of faith after he’s spent the past three years splitting time between DH and LF, but I’m enough of a believer in his bat that moving him to an outfield corner wouldn’t torpedo his value altogether. I like Wade Bailey a lot as well; his stock should keep rising considering the general dearth of quality middle infielders in this college class.
I’ve mentally gone back and forth between Pavin Smith and Brendan McKay a dozen times this spring with the expectation I do it another half-dozen times between now and the draft. I’m not really sure you can go wrong with either at this point. Smith feels like the better all-around hitter (by a razor thin margin), but McKay has more present functional power. Add in McKay’s ability as a pitcher and it’s hard to argue he’s the better (and safer) overall prospect. I still like Smith a bit more as a position player, so that’s what gives him the nod over McKay for this particular exercise.
Logan Taylor and Carl Chester are cut from the same cloth. We’re talking speed, defense, and minimal pop. It’s a prospect profile I’ve never been able to quit even as I see players like this get exposed in pro ball year after year. The floor makes it worth it at a certain point in the draft, but I need to stop overrating these types. Will I? Stay tuned!
Third Team
C – Robbie Coman
1B – Gavin Sheets
2B – Ernie Clement
SS – Bruce Steel
3B – Joe Dunand
OF – Rhett Aplin, Reed Rohlman, Jonathan Pryor
I wrote about Wake Forest in an as yet unpublished piece that will likely never see the light of day. It was half-finished, so I didn’t get to all of the big names on this year’s Demon Deacons team…but I did get to Bruce Steel. Here’s what I wrote about him about three weeks ago…
Bruce Steel makes my head hurt as a low-average, high-OBP, shockingly high-power potential middle infielder. His limited experience as a redshirt-sophomore after tearing ligaments in his thumb in 2016 just makes it all the more confusing. I’m super intrigued by Steel and think he’s getting slept on pretty heavily within the industry. His power and makeup are both legit (first two things I hear about when asking about him), reports about his defense this year at shortstop have been far more good than bad, and he’s young for his class (turns 21 in December). Did I just talk myself into making him a rare in-season FAVORITE? You bet.
Also wrote this about Jonathan Pryor with an lead-in about Ben Breazeale, who was narrowly edged out for this third catcher spot by Robbie Coman…
Ben Breazeale’s hot start brings me great joy. I thought a big year was coming last season, but better late than never. He’s an outstanding senior-sign catcher with more than enough glove to stick behind the plate and enough offensive punch to profile as a big league backup. Jonathan Pryor could do similar things as an outfielder who can hang in center and provide a little something with the stick. It’s early yet, but his 15/20 BB/K ratio is cool to see from somebody who put up an impossibly ugly 5/40 ratio just two seasons ago.
Pryor’s BB/K is now at 23/32 for those of you scoring at home.
Then there’s Gavin Sheets. I have no idea what to do with Gavin Sheets. I think he hits enough to play regularly in the big leagues. As a first baseman, that means I think he’ll hit a whole heck of a lot. If he can do that, he’ll become only the third ever Gavin (Floyd and Cecchini beat him) to play in the majors. I’m leaning towards Sheets as the fifth best draft-eligible bat in the conference and think he’ll represent great value to teams if he winds up sliding on draft day as expected. I know teams pay a premium for up-the-middle talent, but sometimes the allure of a big bat is just too strong to ignore.
Others receiving consideration…
C – Ben Breazeale, Chris Williams, Ryan Lidge
1B – Sam Fragale, Quincy Nieporte, Justin Bellinger, Kel Johnson
2B – Jack Owens, Jake Palomaki, Johnny Ruiz, Kyle Fiala
SS – Justin Novak, Liam Sabino
3B – Trevor Craport, Ryan Tufts, Jack Labosky, Evan Mendoza, Kyle Datres, Dylan Busby, Zack Gahagan
OF – Jacob Wright, Chase Pinder, Coleman Poje, Ryan Peurifoy, Hunter Tackett, Adam Pate, Josh McLain, Brock Deatherage, Mac Caples, Rahiem Cooper
RIP HP Pavilion (May 2011 – April 2016)
Title says it all, really. My computer died. Many backup files were salvaged, but a few stray ones didn’t survive. I’ve been working with some way too nice friends in the game to help fill in some of my now missing blanks. Some fun stuff had to get scrapped in the interest of time/not having the patience to rework lost material, so except to see more random posts (e.g., whatever pops into my head in a given day) than previously planned organized lists. Said lists aren’t gone forever, of course; they’ll just start appearing closer to the end of this month than the beginning as real deal finalized draft rankings. This has been a weird draft year for this site, but I’m confident as ever that the information I’m sitting on is as good as it gets.
No baby yet, by the way. Could be any day now. If I go missing for a few days again, that’ll be the reason. Unless my new Asus decides to join the HP in laptop heaven…
The Baseball Draft Report 