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AJ Puk

29 Apr 2016 12:00 PM / 3 Comments on AJ Puk

(I originally wrote JA Puk in the title before noticing it and correcting it shortly before posting. That’s unremarkable except for the fact that I recently was given a Pirates JA Happ as a stylistic comp for Puk — more fastballs, more sliders/less curves, more changeups — that I had completely forgotten about until I made that typo. Funny how the brain works sometimes…)

I’ve been tough on AJ Puk in the past, but I think I’m finally ready to give in. I’m at peace with him being the first overall pick in this year’s draft. I mean, we all knew the Phillies were all over him going back to when Pat Gillick went south down to Gainesville to watch him throw during fall ball, but only know am I ready to accept it as a good thing. Or, perhaps more accurately, I can now accept it at least as a non-bad thing. This was written here back in October…

If I had to predict what player will actually go number one this June, I’d piggy-back on what others have already said and put my vote in for AJ Puk. The Phillies are my hometown team and while I’m not as well-connected to their thinking as I am with a few other teams, based on the snippets of behind the scenes things I’ve heard (not much considering it’s October, but it’s not like they aren’t thinking about it yet) and the common sense reporting elsewhere (they lean towards a quick-moving college player, preferably a pitcher) all point to Puk. He’s healthy, a good kid (harmless crane climbing incident aside), and a starting pitcher all the way. Puk joining Alfaro, Knapp, Crawford, Franco, Williams, Quinn, Herrera, Altherr, Nola, Thompson, Eickhoff, Eflin, and Giles by September 2017 makes for a pretty intriguing cost-controlled core.

(It’s pretty great for Phillies fans that they can now swap out Giles’s name for Velasquez, Appel, and Eshelman. I’ve saved this analysis for friends and family I like to annoy with this sort of thing via email, but there are so many Cubs/Phillies rebuild parallels that it’s freaky. The only bummer is that there is no Kris Bryant in this class and that the Phillies might be too good in 2016 to land a Kyle Schwarber type next June. Still, where the Cubs were last year, I expect the Phillies to be in 2018. Enjoy this down time while you can, Mets and Nationals. The Phillies are coming fast.)

Now that May is here it’s time to accept the inevitability of Puk wearing red pinstripes…or, more immediately, Clearwater Thresher red and blue. I’ve long been in the “like but not love” camp when it comes to Puk, partly because of my belief there were superior talents ahead of him in this class and partly because of the handful of red flags that dot his dossier. The three biggest knocks on Puk coming into the season were, in some order, 1) command, 2) inconsistent quality of offspeed offerings, and 3) good but not great athleticism. It says a lot about what he does well that he’s risen as a prospect in my mind despite not really answering any of the questions we had for him coming into the season. All of this has held up so far…

Extension, deception, and power would be three words that come immediately to mind when describing Puk. He’s every bit of 6-7, 225 with a delivery that hides the ball damn well. His power comes both with his left arm (92-96, 98 peak) and at the plate (he’d quickly be among the better hitting pitchers in the game), so it’s no big shock that some guy on the internet (that’s me) sees some similarities between him and the prospect version of Madison Bumgarner.

I’ll be quick to point out again that it says “prospect version of Madison Bumgarner” without speaking to what the San Francisco ace grew into as a finished product in the big leagues. Bumgarner is a kind of special player who just kept adding on and getting better as he progressed up the chain. That’s not something that you can predict for any other prospect, though you can’t really rule it out either. You don’t know either way, is the point. Putting Bumgarner aside for now, I think there are two recent-ish draft lefthanders that can help create a basis for what to expect out of AJ Puk in the early stages of his pro career. In terms of a realistic prospect upside, Puk reminds me a great deal of recently promoted big league pitcher Sean Manaea.

Their deliveries are hardly identical – Puk is more over the top while Manaea slings it from more of an angle, plus Puk has a more pronounced step-back with his right foot at the onset and a longer stride, both aspects of his delivery that I personally like as it gives him better balance throughout – but they aren’t so different that you’d point to mechanics as a reason for tossing the comparison aside. They have similar stuff starting with fastballs close in velocity and movement (Puk has been 90-94 this year, up to 97), inconsistent yet promising low- to mid-80s sliders that flash above-average to plus (82-86 and more frequently showing above-average this year for Puk), and changeups still in need of development that clearly would be classified as distant third pitches (Puk’s has been 82-88 so far). Both have missed a lot of bats while also having their ups and downs in the control department with Puk being better at the former while Manaea maintained a slight edge at the latter. Both are also very well-proportioned, physical lefthanders with intimidating size with which they know how to use to their advantage.

A cautionary comparison for Puk might be current Mariners minor leaguer James Paxton. Paxton and Puk are closer mechanically – more similar with the height of their leg kick and overall arm action, though Paxton is more deliberate across the board — than Manaea and Puk, but the big difference between the former SEC lefthander and the current SEC lefthander is the breaking ball. Paxton’s bread and butter is a big overhand curve, a pitch that remains unhittable to this day when he can command it. Puk’s slider has its moments and it’s fair to expect it to develop into a true big league out-pitch (I do), but it’s not quite on that level yet. Paxton’s career has stalled for many of the same reasons some weren’t particularly high on Puk coming into the season: up and down fastball velocity partly attributable to a series of nagging injuries (also a problem of Manaea’s at times), an underdeveloped changeup, and consistently inconsistent command. I think Puk is ahead of where Paxton was at similar points in their development and prefer his ceiling to what we’ve seen out of Paxton to date, but the realistic floor comp remains in play.

One additional notable (or not) similarity between Puk, Manaea, Paxton, and Sean Newcomb, a fourth player often thrown into the mix as a potential Puk point of reference (it’s not bad, but Newcomb’s control issues are greater than anything Puk has dealt with), comes via each player’s respective hometown. We’ve got Cedar Rapids (IA), Valparaiso (IN), Ladner (BC), and Brockton (MA). That’s two raised in the Midwest, one in Canada, and one in New England. When you start to piece everything together, the similar career trajectories for each young pitcher (so far) begin to make some sense. All come from cold weather locales, all are large men with long limbs (thus making coordinating said limbs more of a challenge), and all are lefthanders, a fact that may or may not matter to you depending on your view of whether or not lefties really do develop later than their righthanded counterparts.

Put me down for a realistic Sean Manaea type of upside, a James Paxton floor, and the crazy pipe dream where literally everything works out developmentally ceiling of Madison Bumgarner. Do those potential career paths add up to a 1-1 draft pick? I’m not sure I have a good answer for that yet.

I think it is fair to say that the Puk to Philadelphia movement is propped up in part by the simple notion that somebody has to go first in this draft. There’s an undeniable element of winning the 1-1 race by default at play here – some players have risen to at least get their names in the conversation, but, no matter how much I’ve tried to will it to happen, that obvious 1-1 player does not yet exist in this class – so that should be something taken into consideration when putting Puk’s potential pro prospect status in context. You won’t be able to look at him as being the kind of slam dunk impact talent that many expect to see at the top of a major sport’s draft board, but perhaps that expectation shouldn’t exist for the baseball draft in the first place. My first two drafts with this site active had true “can’t miss” guys in Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, but has any draft from 2011 to the present day really had a first overall pick that felt like a sure thing? Maybe Brady Aiken in 2014, but that’s a hard claim to put on a high school pitcher by definition. Carlos Rodon, the third pick that year, felt surer, but even he had a draft season when he was picked apart for things such as fastball command, a dip in velocity, an underdeveloped changeup, average athleticism, and spotty control. Hey, am I nuts or are do those concerns remind you of anybody from this class? Kris Bryant was absolutely that guy in 2013, but the Astros confused us all by going with Mark Appel in the top spot. Carlos Correa, the actual 1-1 in 2012, was pretty close to that level, as was Lucas Giolito, the number two prospect even with the injury red flag (behind Correa) on my board. Both were high school prospects with at least some doubt – health for Giolito, slightly underscouted summer and spring for Correa – so I could go either way on them. You could argue for Gerrit Cole in 2011 as well, but there’s a little bit of hindsight bias there as he’s closer to a present day Puk as a college prospect than many want to remember. Not that I’m the one true authority on these things, but I actually had Anthony Rendon ahead of Cole in that class, so that’s a potential argument against Cole being a clear-cut number one from day one.

Long stroll through recent draft history short, I don’t think the fact we have uncertainty at the top of this year’s draft is all that rare. Puk might feel a bit underwhelming, but that’s selling his flashes of dominance on the mound short. When he’s right, he’s a worthy 1-1 pick. He’s got a big fastball he can lean on through skillful adding and subtracting, a slider that he can throw for strikes or bury depending on the situation, and a good enough changeup that keeps hitters from sitting on the breaking ball. Getting him right more consistently and for longer stretches of time will be the challenges he and his pro developmental staff will have to overcome.

(For as much as I’ve come around on Puk, I still think Jay Groome is the best prospect in this class and the closest thing to the classic 1-1 type available.)

2016 MLB Draft – SEC Hitting 2.0

28 Apr 2016 6:00 AM / Leave a comment

There are a lot of prospects in the SEC. Let’s spend 4,000 words talking about them. For more on some of the top outfielders, go here. For the complete list of 2016 SEC hitting prospects, go here. And for a little more detail…stay here. We’ll go position by position and try to hit on as many of the top guys as possible. Let’s do it…

There are no standout catching prospects in the SEC this year – at least if we limit our search to 2016 prospects only; I see you, JJ Schwarz – but there are a lot of solid ones who could be big league contributors in time. Jack Kruger, the best of the bunch, is an advance bat and consistently reliable defender behind the plate. He’s got the best shot at playing regularly in the big leagues, especially if you’re buying into his hit tool and power both playing average or better. I think I do, but his “newness” as a prospect works against him some. Of course, like almost all real draft prospects, Kruger isn’t new. Here was his quick report written on this very site back in 2013…

C Jack Kruger (Oaks Christian HS, California): outstanding defensive tools, very strong presently; gap power

For area guys covering him this spring, however, he’s “new.” From limited at bats as a freshman at Oregon to solid but unspectacular junior college numbers at Orange Coast to his solid and borderline spectacular start to 2016 at Mississippi State, there’s not the kind of extended track record that some teams want to see in a potential top ten round college bat. Maybe I’m overstating that concern – he was a big HS prospect, Orange Coast College is a juco that gets lots of scout coverage, he played well last summer in the California Collegiate League, and both Oregon and Mississippi State are big-time programs – but players have slipped on draft day for sillier reasons. Any potential fall – no matter the reason — could make Kruger one of the draft’s better catching value picks.

After Kruger, the SEC has a lot of rock solid potential big league backup types. Henri Lartigue is extremely well-rounded and steady defensively. Jordan Romero has a big arm and intriguing defensive upside. Jason Delay is a highly respected catch and throw guy, but is limited as a hitter with a highly aggressive approach. Gavin Collins has played third base the bulk of the season – very well, I should note – but still profiles best as a potential above-average defender as a professional catcher. My notes on him include one of the better lines I’ve gotten this year: “big arm, loves to show it off.” How can you not like a catcher like that? I’ve liked Blake Logan since his freshman season at Auburn. He controls the strike zone as a hitter and can be counted on to do what’s asked defensively. Benito Santiago is a boom/bust option as a draft-eligible sophomore. His notes from HS…

C Benito Santiago (Coral Springs Christian Academy, Florida): good behind plate; strong arm; good athlete; average speed; don’t think he hits; 5-9, 165 pounds

He has hit for more power than I would have guessed, but his approach is still a mess and contact will always be an issue. If he’s willing to sign, I could see a pro team taking a gamble on him with the logic being they’d grab him a year before a potential college breakout season moves him up ten rounds or so in the eyes of the rest of the league. Better to draft a player like this a year early than a year too late. Or something like that. Michael Barash is a borderline prospect, but he’s been a reliable senior who has produced some both at the plate and behind it over the years. Karl Ellison intrigues me just enough defensively to get the nod here as the last real potential SEC catcher with 2016 draft aspirations.

On Pete Alonso back in October…

The Gators have so much talent that it’s inevitable that even a top guy or three can lay claim to getting overlooked by the national media. Alonso, with plus bat speed and power to match, is that guy for me. The burgeoning plate discipline is the cherry on top. I’m not in the national media, but maybe I’ll look back and see how I overlooked him as he rises up boards next spring.

His ranking in the ten spot might be an example of a chump like me still finding a way to overlook Alonso. All the guy does is hit. Working against him is his handedness: nobody gets excited for a righthanded hitting prospect limited to first base, fair or not. Working for him is everybody’s desire – think it peaked last year, but I still hear about it from time to time – to find the next Paul Goldschmidt. Alonso isn’t the runner or athlete that Goldschmidt has proven to be nor is it likely he’ll ever hit like the Arizona superstar. It’s still nice that we now live in a baseball universe where Goldschmidt has made it cool to be a righthanded hitting power bat again.

(Wasn’t sure where to wedge this in, so parenthetical reference it is: Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Colabello, Jose Abreu, and Jason Rogers [!?!] were the six righthanded hitting first basemen to rank in the top twenty wRC+ [100 PA minimum] in the big leagues last year. That’s technically six of the top eighteen. Not quite half, but a third isn’t too shabby. I’m not sure what this means exactly, if anything meaningful at all.)

Nathaniel Lowe is a legitimate FAVORITE who has exceeded my lofty hopes for his 2016 re-entry to major college ball. Lowe and the aforementioned Jack Kruger might just be brothers from different mothers. Lowe, like Kruger, spent a year at a D1 program (Mercer), transferred to a well-regarded junior college (St. Johns River), and then hit the ground running back in D1 at Mississippi State. I know I just published these rankings a few days ago, but he’s too low already. Lowe is an exciting power bat in a class that needs them.

Niko Buentello can join the Lowe/Kruger family as well. His path: Oklahoma to Grayson to Auburn. His approach is a little bit behind Lowe’s and his age is a little ahead, but he’s still a decent mid-round power prospect. Gunnar McNeill (Florida International to Chipola to Kentucky) joins the brotherhood. I knew a lot of these prospects were incoming transfers, but had no idea how many there were until I started writing. It’s kind of crazy, right? Anyway, McNeill has some pop and a decent if inconsistent approach, so his righty stick getting him some late-round love on draft day would not be a surprise. That came out way dirtier than intended, but I’m keeping it. As a transfer from North Carolina to Kentucky with no junior college stop in between, Joe Dudek might be a part of the growing Lowe/Kruger/McNeill family but only as a distant cousin. I like his bat a lot, but the odds of him leaving Kentucky before ever playing a game for them seem long. I’d hope my area guy did a lot of research on that before finalizing my board in either direction.

Turns out I don’t have a hook for Hunter Melton, so we’ll focus on his interesting power, positional versatility (some think he could still play some 3B if need be), and intriguing track record with wood. In the late rounds, it all could be worth investigating.

I still think Nick Senzel can play second base in the pros. Let’s get that out of the way first. Everybody has already locked him in to third base and I’ll begrudgingly go along with it, but the range I’ve seen out of Senzel up the middle trumps letting his impressive arm do more damage (the good kind of damage) at third. With that out of the way, let’s talk second base prospects.

JaVon Shelby is a good prospect who might suffer some from the expectation that he’d finish the year as a great prospect. His physical gifts – above-average to plus speed, ample bat speed, impressive arm strength, athleticism that has allowed him to play third, the outfield, and improve every game at second – and scorching junior year start were great, but now he’s settled more into a good range. Good is still good, of course…it just isn’t great. Maybe the heightened expectations and failure to live up to them says more about us – me, specifically – than him. I still like Shelby quite a bit, but the red flag that is his approach remains. He checks every other box, so I’d still give him a chance sooner rather than later on draft day to see if the pro staff could work with him to figure things out.

A lot of what was written about Shelby could apply to Ryne Birk, at least in a poor man’s version kind of way. Birk might be a little ahead in terms of power and approach, but Shelby beats him everywhere else. I’ve gotten positive reviews on his glove at second this year, but there are still a few who maintain that his speed (good not great) and arm (neither good nor great) will force him to left field in the pros. For those reasons and more, I’ve gotten a fun and somewhat obscure Andrew Pullin comp for him this spring.

Kramer Robertson keeps getting better and better. I think this ranking will look too low by June. It’s probably too low already. Robertson doesn’t have a clear carrying tool, but he can run some, he’s got pop, he’s steady in the field, and his swing is geared towards making a ton of solid contact. Throw in some plus athleticism and you’ve got yourself a player.

Both Arkansas infielders, Rick Nomura and Mike Bernal, could be well-rounded enough to make it as utility infielders. The fact both guys have experience on the left side of the infield is a big point in their favor. Cole Freeman is a good fielder with speed. He’s a guy I’d like to get to know more about between now and June. Damon Haecker and John Holland are both versatile defenders with my kind of plate discipline but not quite enough power to give much confidence they’ll keep getting on base enough to make it all work professionally. Melvin Gray’s easy plus speed could give him a late round shot.

The shortstops in the SEC this year are a decent microcosm for what’s going on across college baseball this year. Certain positions ebb and flow, and this year’s definitely a low-water mark for the six-spot. Ryan Howard is a nice prospect, but not the kind of guy who would crack the top five at short in a major college conference in most years. He does most everything fairly well – solid hitter, average raw power, dependable at short – but nothing so well that you’re pumped to call his name on draft day. Part of my reticence in buying in to Howard comes from what may be a silly place. There is far more to the position than speed, but Howard’s below-average foot speed has always struck me as a potential red flag when assessing his long-term defensive outlook. Maybe that’s being lazy by haphazardly using speed as a proxy for athleticism, but the solid yet unsexy profile that I seem to like at other positions doesn’t grab me the same way at shortstop.

The two Mississippi shortstop prospects grab me, but for very different reasons. Robinson’s relatively low ranking here is for the exact opposite reason of what I just dinged Howard for. He’s a really good athlete with lots of upside defensively, more than enough speed, and sneaky pop packed into his 5-11, 180 pound frame, but at the end of the day I’m not all that confident he’ll hit enough to profile as a big league regular. Howard could get there, but I’d question his defense along the way. Robinson’s defense is up to the task, but I don’t love the bat. Put the two together and you’d really have something. As it is, I think bat-first utility guy (Howard) and glove/speed focused utility guy (Robinson) represent the most likely paths for the two prospects. Draft-eligible sophomore Tate Blackman, Robinson’s teammate at Ole Miss, could potentially be the combination of Howard and Robinson I’m looking for. I stress potentially because, quite honestly, I don’t yet know enough about Blackman to say one way or another. For now I know I like his athleticism, speed, and power upside, all of which give him the best of both Howard and Robinson. I’m not sure how his defense would look at short everyday – his range and arm would both be tested, to be sure – but I’d be intrigued enough by his other abilities to find out. My lack of knowledge about the finer details of Blackman’s game had me hedging with his ranking somewhat, but my gut instinct says he could be a big riser by the time my final board hits in June.

Nick Senzel is really good. I’ve compared him to Anthony Rendon in the past – the exact phrasing from my notes is “Rendon lite?” – and I think he’ll have a good long career as an above-average big league player. He also reminds me a little bit of this guy…

.338/.452/.561 – 31 BB/14 K – 16/17 SB – 148 AB
.393/.487/.592 – 45 BB/38 K – 13/14 SB – 262 AB

Top is Senzel, bottom is Kyle Seager. I’ve used the Seager comp a few (too many) times over the years, most recently on Max Schrock last season. Speaking of Schrock, how did he fall as far as he did last year? That one still blows my mind. Anyway, in an attempt to move away from the tired Seager comp, another name popped up…

.338/.452/.561 – 31 BB/14 K – 16/17 SB – 148 AB
.351/.479/.530 – 46 BB/26 K – 11/14 SB – 185 AB

Top is still Senzel. Mystery bottom guy was written up like so by Baseball America after his pro debut…

“He has a short, compact swing and hits the ball to all fields, and he handles breaking pitches well because of strong balance. Though he’s a physical 6-foot-1 and has good strength, [REDACTED] has a line-drive swing that doesn’t produce natural loft, leading some to project him to have below-average power. He earns high marks for his defense, with good feet and hands to go with an above-average arm at third base. He’s also versatile enough to have played second base, shortstop and left field for Team USA. He’s a good athlete and a solid-average runner.”

I would have linked his pre-draft report from BA, but they have the absolute worst log-in page on the entire internet. Anyway, the passage above was typed up from the 2009 Prospect Handbook. We’re talking about a guy who once played infield in the SEC. He had a similar draft year statistically. And he’s really broken out in his late-20s. Any guesses? When I’ve done mystery comps like this in the past I wouldn’t reveal the player. Then I’d search my site about a different player years later, come across the mystery comp post, and have no idea myself who I was talking about. So, yeah, it’s Logan Forsythe. My future self thanks my present self. I like Senzel to hit the big leagues running a bit more easily than Forsythe (i.e., I don’t think Senzel will enter his age-28 season with an OPS+ of 85), so maybe that would bump Senzel up over Forsythe as a guy with a higher floor. A couple of peak years like Forsythe’s seems like a reasonable ceiling projection. That’s a damn fine player. Supports the original claim: Nick Senzel is really good.

(I typed the following up before realizing it doesn’t quite apply to Senzel in the way I first thought it might, but damned if I’m going to spend time on a paragraph and let it go to waste. Here it is: If we’re being fair, then it’s worth pointing out that some of the same team-based criticisms levelled at Corey Ray apply to Nick Senzel as well. If you recall, we knocked Ray’s outstanding 2016 performance some [just some] by pointing out that he had teammates who outdid him in just about every offensive category. Senzel has been great as well, but he’s only fourth on his own team in qualified batting average, second in on-base percentage, and first in slugging. It’s a weird and arguably unnecessary bar to hold college prospects to, but it’s a small point to potentially consider, at least in terms of player dominance and potentially enhanced hitting environments and/or scheduling softness.)

Let’s talk about Greg Deichmann. This is me from the past…

“If he’s not a star for this team, I’m quitting the internet draft game” – January 6, 2015. I said that about SO 3B/2B Greg Deichmann last year and I stand by it today. His first year at LSU didn’t end in stardom and as an older sophomore he’s able to leave after this year, so this could be do-or-die time for my sterling reputation as a prospect soothsayer. Of course, if Deichmann leaves LSU after this year then that almost certainly would mean he had a huge season that positioned himself to be drafted high enough to make turning pro a smart decision. If not, then I’ll at least get another year to tout him as the great prospect that I think he is. Deichmann completely won me over as a hitter in the year or so before he enrolled at LSU. Loved the swing, hands, bat speed, everything. His red flag during his prep days was his age, but that’s no longer a concern as a draft-eligible sophomore playing in the SEC. The new worry — or the old worry, if you weren’t sold on Deichmann as a hitter as I once was — is his approach. If said approach can move from “swing at anything that moves” to something slightly more refined, then he’ll take off as a hitter. That’s what I’m banking on in 2016.

.276/.329/.497 with 9 BB/23 K and 4/8 SB in 145 AB is not a star quality turn for Deichmann. I might just barely be off the hook thanks to his power – his slugging is second on the team, which makes up for his ninth place standing in terms of batting average – but the approach is still terrifying. I won’t rule out Deichmann turning things around in a hurry, but I suppose the teeny tiny possibility that I might have overrated him as a hitter once upon a time could exist.

I don’t look too deeply at positions when I rank players, so it was a fun surprise to see that I had unknowingly put five consecutive third basemen together in the rankings. Ronnie Gideon, Will Toffey, Carson Shaddy, Colby Bortles, and Boomer White are all very, very different players, but each guy does enough well to warrant serious draft consideration at the hot corner all the same. Gideon has the massive raw power and arm strength befitting a man his size (6-3, 240 pounds) who once made his bones as a catching prospect. I know next to nothing about his glove at third other than some scout rumblings that indicate he’s better than you’d think for a guy his size. That doesn’t mean he’s good (or bad) at third, just more nimble than one might expect. Toffey might be the weirdest player in all of college baseball. It’s not every day you see a player with 5 extra base hits (all doubles) and 42 walks. It makes his 2016 pretty easy to distill into one quick pithy remark: love the approach, don’t love the power. Thankfully, Toffey has shown power in the past (.420 SLG as a freshman) and is generally considered to have around average raw power, so the down draft season shouldn’t drop him as far as one might otherwise believe. The bigger draft question surrounding Toffey will be his willingness (or lack thereof) to leave Nashville after just two seasons. Deichmann seems slightly more likely to sign than Toffey, but that’s just one man making an educated guess on the internet.

Shaddy, yet another draft-eligible sophomore at third base (not for age, but for a year missed due to Tommy John), is a special defensive player. That’s a big statement, but I feel comfortable saying it about a guy who can legitimately play catcher, third, and center field. That’s a unique skill set. His approach, power, and athleticism are all average or better, so Shaddy should hear his name called early enough on draft day to have a tough decision about where he’ll play ball next year. Bortles is a big man with big power that is hard to imagine holding his own at third. He’s not entirely dissimilar to Gideon in that way. White is fascinating for his power/speed combination and ability to play multiple spots on the diamond. I had assumed he’d be a left fielder all the way in the pros, but some pretty persuasive friends in the game convinced me that most teams see him as an infielder first and foremost. Fine by me.

Jeff Moberg wasn’t ranked with those five, but he’s not too far off the pack. He’s had a checkered at best college career, but a breakout final season has many – myself included – scrambling to see if there’s more to his game than first meets the eye. The interesting bat combined with the well-known strength in his glovework make him a sneaky utility infielder prospect at the next level.

The big names were more or less covered, so let’s look at a few outfield prospects a bit further down the line. I really liked Jordan Ebert heading into last season…

The surest bet in the Auburn lineup is JR OF/2B Jordan Ebert. Ebert doesn’t get enough love as one of the college game’s best pure hitters. That above-average or better hit tool combined with enough pop and speed allow him to potentially profile as an above-average regular offensively. I think his glove will play at any of the spots he’s tried — 2B, 3B, OF — but think his value will likely lie in his ability to play multiple spots — especially those where he can show off his plus arm — well. If you only knew what I just wrote about Ebert, you’d surely think he’s a big-time 2015 draft prospect, but, at least for now, an overly aggressive approach at the plate (31 BB/54 K) holds back his appeal to a degree. I still like him quite a bit; quite simply, guys with hit tools like his are not to be dismissed. If Ebert can settle in to a spot defensively (likely a corner OF spot), flash a touch more power, and clean up his approach a bit, he’ll become a prime candidate to become one of college ball’s fastest risers in 2015. I still think a pro team will try to keep him in the dirt for as long as humanly possible after signing. As an outfielder, he profiles as a high-level backup, especially if he can hang in center a bit. As an infielder, however, he’s a potential everyday contributor.

That didn’t work out. I still think backup outfielder is a solid potential outcome for him. There’s a gigantic gap between what Keith Holcombe is and what he could be, but the upside is tantalizing. It’s not a stretch to call him one of the best athletes at any position in this class. JB Moss is one of about fifty Aggies prospects that could hear his name called on draft day. He can really run and throw. Ro Coleman has always been an underdog due to his diminutive stature; he seems likely to wind up back at Vanderbilt for a senior year after a down junior season. I still think there’s a role in pro ball for a high character guy like him. We’ll see.

2016 MLB Draft – SEC Outfielders

27 Apr 2016 6:00 AM / 2 Comments on 2016 MLB Draft – SEC Outfielders

There are too many quality outfielders in the SEC in 2016 that my tiny brain can’t process them all. Hopefully you don’t have that same problem, but on the off chance that we’re all in this together I’ve assembled a very quick, very unofficial, and very rudimentary scoring system that can help us understand these 2016 SEC outfielders a little bit better. The full list of SEC hitting prospects can be found here, but today we’ll focus on the players ranked second through nine. We’re going to make up some arbitrary categories, give out some points, and see if we can get to the bottom of the SEC outfielder pile.

2016

(3) Reynolds, Thompson-Williams, Palacios, Cone
(2) Robson, Fraley, Grier, Jackson, Woodman, Reed
(1) Banks, Bonfield, Rooker, Ring, Wrenn

Fairly self-explanatory, right? All we’ve done is group each player by how he has performed the 2016 so far. You can quibble with these placements if you want, but you’d be wrong. It should be noted that this is the only part of this exercise that has rankings within the rankings, i.e., Palacios has been better than Cone but not quite as good as Thompson-Williams. Speaking of those three, I’m not sure how many people outside of SEC country fully realize how good they have been this year.

Track record

(3) Reynolds, Fraley, Woodman, Banks
(2) Reed, Grier, Wrenn, Robson, Jackson, Cone, Ring
(1) Thompson-Williams, Palacios, Rooker, Bonfield

Same idea as above, but stretched out to include the player’s overall body of work at the college level. This is a little bit trickier because it’s not solely performance-based. Guys like Thompson-Williams and Palacios get dinged for having done it less at the D1 level than some of the players above them. So you get points both for production and longevity. I don’t love it because it ignores junior college numbers, but I think it more closely mirrors how these players will be evaluated by pro teams this June.

Tools

(3) Reed, Thompson-Williams, Grier, Wrenn, Robson
(2) Reynolds, Fraley, Woodman, Banks, Rooker, Jackson
(1) Palacios, Cone, Ring, Bonfield

This is obviously the most subjective category one could come up with. You can quibble with these placements if you want…and I wouldn’t argue too much. My emphasis was on finding guys with multiple plus tools (e.g., Reed’s easy plus CF range and plus to plus-plus speed) who stood out for having athleticism that separated them from the rest. If it helps, think of this category more of the raw power/speed/arm/athleticism subsection of a larger tool-based evaluation.

Defense

(3) Buddy Reed, Jake Fraley, Dom Thompson-Williams, Anfernee Grier, JB Woodman, Stephen Wrenn, Jacob Robson, Gene Cone, Jake Ring
(2) Bryan Reynolds, Brent Rooker, Vincent Jackson
(1) Nick Banks, Josh Palacios, Luke Bonfield

Three for being a sure-thing center fielder, two for being a likely center fielder (with lots of upside in a corner if it comes to it), and one for being locked into a corner from the start. This was pretty simple. Reynolds and Jackson were the toughest guys to bump down a level, but both have just enough whispers about their long-term defensive homes that I swallowed hard and knocked them to the two-point group. Plus I didn’t want Rooker to be lonely.

Physical Projection

(3) Reed, Grier, Wrenn, Robson
(2) Reynolds, Fraley, Thompson-Williams, Woodman, Cone, Ring
(1) Banks, Palacios, Rooker, Jackson, Bonfield

I wanted one more category, but couldn’t think of one good enough to include. After reaching out to a few people with the annoyingly vague question of “hey, what characteristics would you use to separate a bunch of similarly talented 21-year-old outfield prospects?,” the best I could come up with was a kind of all-encompassing category we’ll call physical projection. Physical projection can mean a lot of things to many different people; solely for the purpose of today’s exercise, we’ll define it simply as “capacity for growth.” In other words, which player has the most room to grow from whatever they are now to whatever they may eventually be. There’s some overlap here with the tools category, but the way we’re defining projection corrects for that to a certain degree. There’s also some correlation between projection and defense, though that probably comes from using athleticism as a proxy for both larger categories.

If we add up our points from each category, we get three pretty clear prospect tiers. Going off this data alone, we get the following…

Tier 1: Reynolds, Reed, Fraley, Robson
Tier 2: Fraley, Thompson-Williams, Woodman, Wrenn, Cone
Tier 3: Jackson, Ring, Banks, Palacios, Rooker, Bonfield

If I were to look at my rankings from yesterday – done before this silly little exercise – and put players into tiers, I’d go with the following…

Tier 1: Reynolds, Reed, Fraley
Tier 2: Thompson-Williams, Grier, Woodman
Tier 3: Banks, Palacios, Wrenn, Rooker, Robson
Tier 4: Vincent, Cone, Ring, Bonfield

I cheated by adding a fourth tier, but I feel pretty good about that tiered list. It kind of works out in terms of round value, too: Tiers 1 and 2 align with rounds 1 and 2, respectively; Tier 3 fits in that round 3 through 5 range; Tier 4 is more of the round 6 through 10 range. It’s not perfect, but it’s not terrible. The one name that sticks out as being particularly tough to place is Cone; he has likely played his way into the third tier and will probably be there before June rolls around.

I’d like to spend more words on the outfielders ranked three through nine, but not before getting a little more in-depth on the top name in the top tier. Bryan Reynolds’s physical tools are all at least average, though there are none that I’d hang a plus on without some serious cajoling first. If we compare him to the guy directly behind him in the rankings, Buddy Reed, he’ll lose any athletic head-to-head battle. Furthermore, his defense in center is a bit of a long-term concern for me, but smarter people than I have said he’s actually better – more instinctual, quicker reads, just more natural all-around – in center than he is in a corner. I haven’t seen enough of him to say either way, but it’s an interesting view to consider. Thankfully, despite those concerns, the man can flat hit. Speed, defense, and arm strength are all important, but the bat will forever be king. Offensively, Reynolds actually reminds me a lot of a far less heralded 2016 draft prospect…

.348/.481/.582 – 37 BB/36 K – 9/12 SB – 141 AB
.331/.463/.608 – 36 BB/38 K – 4/8 SB – 148 AB

Bottom is Reynolds. Top is none other than Tyler Ramirez. I’m not sure what that means – besides the unsaid obvious that I can’t not say any longer: Ramirez is wildly underrated nationally – but it’s interesting to me. Another fun yet ultimately pointless (or not) comparison…

.350/.438/.654 – 38 BB/41 K – 14/16 SB – 237 AB
.331/.463/.608 – 36 BB/38 K – 4/8 SB – 148 AB

Bottom is still Reynolds. Top is star of last year’s Vanderbilt team and eventual first overall pick, Dansby Swanson. I’m not sure what this means – if anything – but it felt close enough to point out. Even if the takeaway is something as simple as “damn, Vandy sure knows how to recruit and coach up hitters!,” then I’ll consider this worth the twenty seconds it took to look it up.

Reynolds’s numbers – again, the ones on the bottom in the two comparisons above – are undeniably excellent. One of the few concerns I have about the Vanderbilt slugger is his propensity to end long at bats with short walks back to the dugout. Strikeouts at the big league level don’t bother me in the least, but they mean something more at the amateur and minor league level. Some of this concern is mitigated by Reynolds’s high walk totals, but the high strikeout/high walk college hitter archetype is one that has seen mixed result at the pro level in recent years. It’s also one that I still don’t know what to do with as an evaluator. There are four basic types of hitters when it comes to strikeouts and walks…

High strikeout and high walk
High strikeout and low walk
Low strikeout and low walk
Low strikeout and high walk

This obviously ignores a middle ground, but sometimes sacrifices must be made in the name of simplicity. Reynolds obviously falls in that first category. As would DJ Stewart, perhaps a cautionary tale from last year’s draft. But then we have the Dansby Swanson example staring us in the face just a few centimeters above as a potential counterpoint. Kevin Newman and Scott Kingery did it in different ways, but both would ultimately fall in the low strikeout and low walk group. Same with Kyle Holder. Perhaps there’s a pattern there – hint: all are middle infielders – that can be applied going forward. Donnie Dewees, decidedly not a middle infielder, stands out as one of the rare low strikeout and high walk prospects from last year. Brendon Sanger, an outfielder like Dewees, also fits. There aren’t too many low strikeout and high walk prospects out there, so finding ones with solid tools like Dewees and Sanger last year is pretty exciting. For as much as I like this class, there aren’t a ton of examples of the low K/high BB hitters as of yet. We’ll see if some hit their way into that discussion over the final few weeks of the college regular season.

Brief (arguably unnecessary) diversion aside, I have long wondered which of the two middle-ground approaches (high strikeout and high walk versus low strikeout and low walk) lays the groundwork for the best long-term hitting prospect. We know high K/low BB is scary. We know low K/high BB is exciting. But what of the high K/high BB and low K/low BB prospect archetypes? The former speaks to the ability to work deep counts, a comfort level hitting with two strikes, and the obvious on-base skills that come with piling up free passes. The latter is indicative — not always, but generally – with hitters who make lots of good contact, attack early in the count, and have confidence in their wheels to help steal some hits and extra bases along the way. Again, we’re generalizing (or, more accurately, theorizing), but I think the high K/BB players tend to be the ones we associate with better plate discipline (and often power along with it) while the low K/BB players tend to be contact kings with higher batting averages and better speed. Two different paths to prospectdom, I suppose.

2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – SEC Hitting

26 Apr 2016 6:00 AM / 3 Comments on 2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – SEC Hitting

words

The above was my placeholder until I could add to this, but I’m leaving it because I forgot about it and find it funny just sitting there all alone. The players ranked two through nine on this list are all outfielders. That’s crazy. I’ll have more on the conference’s potentially historic class soon. I dislike that I have so many players lumped up by school — Rooker and Robson, Robinson and Blackman, three A&M players in a row followed soon after by four A&M players in a row — but it’s honestly how things shook out. Makes the list feel inauthentic, but whatever. I find it interesting looking at some of the top names in the conference how little in the way of breakout performances we’ve had this year. Senzel is the only player who came into the year on the “good with the hope he’d be great” range who actually delivered. Maybe Woodman. Lots of guys have continued to be good, some have taken a half-step back, and others have had really nice years without much in the way of pre-season pressure. I would listen to an argument that Grier has had that good to great breakout, but many of the same red flags in his game that existed before 2016 — namely his plate discipline — remain open questions going forward, increased production otherwise or not. Lots to consider with this group…

Tennessee JR 3B/2B Nick Senzel
Vanderbilt JR OF/1B Bryan Reynolds
Florida JR OF Buddy Reed
LSU JR OF Jake Fraley
South Carolina JR OF Dom Thompson-Williams
Auburn JR OF Anfernee Grier
Mississippi JR OF JB Woodman
Texas A&M JR OF Nick Banks
Auburn JR OF Josh Palacios
Florida JR 1B Pete Alonso
Kentucky JR 2B/OF JaVon Shelby
Georgia JR OF Stephen Wrenn
Missouri JR SS/3B Ryan Howard
Mississippi State JR C Jack Kruger
LSU SO 3B/2B Greg Deichmann
Mississippi State rSO OF Brent Rooker
Mississippi State rJR OF Jacob Robson
Mississippi JR SS/2B Errol Robinson
Mississippi SO SS/2B Tate Blackman
Tennessee SR OF/LHP Vincent Jackson
Texas A&M JR 2B/OF Ryne Birk
South Carolina JR OF Gene Cone
Missouri JR OF Jake Ring
Mississippi JR C Henri Lartigue
LSU JR C Jordan Romero
LSU JR 2B/SS Kramer Robertson
Arkansas SO OF Luke Bonfield
Texas A&M JR 3B/C Ronnie Gideon
Vanderbilt SO 3B/SS Will Toffey
Arkansas rSO 3B/C Carson Shaddy
Mississippi JR 3B/1B Colby Bortles
Texas A&M SR 3B/OF Boomer White
Vanderbilt JR C Jason Delay
Mississippi State JR C/3B Gavin Collins
Auburn SR OF/2B Jordan Ebert
Auburn JR C Blake Logan
Mississippi State JR 1B Nathaniel Lowe
Auburn JR 1B Niko Buentello
Kentucky rSO 1B Joe Dudek
Tennessee SO C Benito Santiago
Tennessee SR 3B/2B Jeff Moberg
Alabama rSO OF Keith Holcombe
Arkansas SR 2B/SS Rick Nomura
Arkansas rSR 2B/SS Mike Bernal
LSU JR 2B/3B Cole Freeman
Texas A&M SR OF JB Moss
Texas A&M SR 1B/RHP Hunter Melton
Texas A&M SR C Michael Barash
South Carolina SR SS Marcus Mooney
Kentucky JR 1B Gunnar McNeill
Georgia rJR 3B Trevor Kieboom
Arkansas SR C Tucker Pennell
Vanderbilt JR OF/2B Ro Coleman
Texas A&M JR OF Walker Pennington
Mississippi State rJR OF Cody Brown
Arkansas JR 3B/1B Clark Eagan
Alabama SR 3B/SS Chance Vincent
Vanderbilt JR C Karl Ellison
Texas A&M JR OF/1B Joel Davis
Texas A&M JR SS Austin Homan
Texas A&M JR OF/ SS Nick Choruby
Texas A&M SR OF/1B Jonathan Moroney
Kentucky SR OF Dorian Hairston
Auburn SR SS/3B Cody Nulph
Auburn JR 2B/OF Damon Haecker
Mississippi State rSR 2B/3B John Holland
Kentucky JR OF Marcus Carson
Mississippi State JR OF Tanner Poole
Mississippi SR OF Cameron Dishon
Tennessee SR OF Chris Hall
Tennessee SR OF Derek Lance
Kentucky JR OF Zach Reks
Mississippi State JR 3B Luke Reynolds
Auburn SR 2B/SS Melvin Gray
Mississippi SR OF Connor Cloyd
Mississippi State SR OF/C Michael Smith
Tennessee JR 3B Jordan Rodgers
Georgia SR 1B Daniel Nichols
Georgia JR C/OF Skyler Webb
Auburn JR OF JJ Shaffer
Alabama SR OF Ryan Blanchard
Arkansas SR 1B Cullen Gassaway
Alabama SR OF Georgie Salem
Alabama JR C Will Haynie
South Carolina SR 2B/SS DC Arendas
Missouri SR 3B/1B Zach Lavy
Kentucky rJR OF Storm Wilson
Kentucky SR C Zach Arnold
Georgia SR SS/2B Nick King
Auburn rJR 2B/C Kyler Deese
Kentucky JR SS Connor Heady
Auburn JR 1B/OF Daniel Robert
Florida JR OF Ryan Larson
LSU JR OF Cody Ducote
Tennessee JR OF Dathan Prewett
Vanderbilt rSO OF/1B Tyler Green
Vanderbilt SR 1B/OF Kyle Smith
Vanderbilt JR OF/INF Nolan Rogers
Georgia JR 3B/2B Mike Bell

2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – SEC Pitching

25 Apr 2016 6:00 AM / 6 Comments on 2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – SEC Pitching

There’s so much talent in the SEC that trying to fit all of their 2016 MLB Draft prospects in one day’s worth of posts doesn’t make sense. The SEC deserves an entire week. To kick things off, a list of the incredibly deep group of pitching — seriously, there are players I legitimately love as prospects ranked down in the 35-40ish range — in the SEC this year…

Florida JR LHP AJ Puk
Mississippi State JR RHP Dakota Hudson
Vanderbilt rSO RHP Jordan Sheffield
Georgia JR RHP Robert Tyler
Arkansas JR RHP Zach Jackson
Florida JR RHP Logan Shore
South Carolina FR RHP Braden Webb
Auburn JR RHP Keegan Thompson
Tennessee JR RHP Kyle Serrano
Kentucky SR RHP Kyle Cody
Florida JR RHP Shaun Anderson
Florida JR RHP Dane Dunning
Vanderbilt JR LHP Ben Bowden
LSU SO RHP Austin Bain
Vanderbilt JR LHP John Kilichowski
Texas A&M SO RHP Brigham Hill
Mississippi State JR LHP Daniel Brown
Kentucky JR RHP Zack Brown
Texas A&M JR RHP Mark Ecker
Mississippi State JR RHP Austin Sexton
Arkansas JR RHP Dominic Taccolini
Texas A&M JR RHP Ryan Hendrix
Georgia JR LHP Connor Jones
Florida rSO LHP Scott Moss
LSU JR LHP Jared Poche’
South Carolina JR RHP Wil Crowe
Texas A&M SR RHP Kyle Simonds
Texas A&M SO RHP Jace Vines
Alabama JR RHP Geoffrey Bramblett
Kentucky SR RHP Dustin Beggs
Texas A&M SR RHP Andrew Vinson
Auburn rJR RHP Cole Lipscomb
Alabama JR LHP Thomas Burrows
LSU rSO RHP Jesse Stallings
Mississippi State JR RHP Zac Houston
Missouri rSR RHP Reggie McClain
South Carolina JR RHP Taylor Widener
Mississippi rJR RHP Brady Bramlett
Vanderbilt JR RHP Hayden Stone
Alabama rSR RHP Jake Hubbard
LSU rJR RHP Hunter Newman
LSU rJR RHP Russell Reynolds
Mississippi JR RHP Chad Smith
South Carolina rSO RHP Canaan Cropper
Auburn JR RHP Gabe Klobosits
Auburn JR LHP Ben Braymer
LSU JR RHP Riley Smith
Mississippi State JR RHP/OF Reid Humphreys
Mississippi State rSO RHP Jacob Billingsley
Alabama JR RHP Matt Foster
LSU JR RHP Alden Cartwright
Mississippi State JR LHP Vance Tatum
Florida JR LHP Kirby Snead
LSU JR RHP Parker Bugg
Alabama rJR LHP/OF Colton Freeman
Mississippi rJR RHP Sean Johnson
Mississippi JR LHP Wyatt Short
South Carolina JR RHP Matt Vogel
Alabama JR RHP Nick Eicholtz
Mississippi State rJR RHP Paul Young
Texas A&M SR LHP Ty Schlottmann
Arkansas JR RHP James Teague
Arkansas JR RHP Cannon Chadwick
Georgia rSR RHP Heath Holder
Auburn JR LHP Octavio Rodriguez
Alabama SR RHP Ray Castillo
Auburn JR RHP Kevin Davis
Georgia JR RHP Drew Moody
Georgia rJR RHP David Gonzalez
LSU SR LHP John Valek
Tennessee SR LHP Andy Cox
Kentucky SR LHP Dylan Dwyer
Auburn rSR RHP Justin Camp
Tennessee SR RHP Steven Kane
South Carolina JR LHP Josh Reagan
Alabama rSO RHP Tyler Adams
Tennessee JR RHP Jon Lipinski
Georgia JR LHP Andrew Gist
Florida JR RHP Frank Rubio
Texas A&M SR LHP/OF Blake Kopetsky
Alabama SR LHP Jon Keller
Mississippi State JR RHP Blake Smith
Kentucky JR LHP Logan Salow
Georgia rJR RHP Austin Wallace
Missouri rSO RHP Cole Bartlett
Missouri SR LHP Austin Tribby
Kentucky rSR RHP Zach Strecker
LSU JR RHP Collin Strall
Tennessee JR RHP Hunter Martin
LSU SR LHP Hunter Devall
South Carolina JR LHP John Parke
Arkansas rJR RHP Josh Alberius
Vanderbilt rSO LHP Ryan Johnson
Arkansas rSR RHP Doug Willey

2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – ACC (PART TWO)

21 Apr 2016 6:00 AM / 5 Comments on 2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – ACC (PART TWO)

For Part One, see there. For Part Two, see…here.

Zack Collins over Corey Ray won’t happen on draft day and that’s fine. I’m taking the man who might have the best all-around offensive profile of any amateur hitter in the country if my neck is on the line. That was not intended to rhyme, but we’ll let it stand. I really do like Corey Ray: he can run, he has pop, his approach has taken a major step forward, and he should be able to stick in center for at least the first few years of club control. I mean, you’d be a fool not to like him at this point. But liking him as a potential top ten pick and loving him as a legit 1-1 candidate are two very different things.

I don’t have much to add about all of the good that Ray brings to the field each game. If you’ve made your way here, you already know. Instead of rehashing Ray’s positives, let’s focus on some of his potential weaknesses. In all honesty, the knocks on Ray are fairly benign. His body is closer to maxed-out than most top amateur prospects. His base running success and long-term utility in center field may not always be there as said body thickens up and loses some athleticism. Earlier in the season Andrew Krause of Perfect Game (who is excellent, by the way) noted an unwillingness or inability to pull the ball with authority as often as some might like to see. Some might disagree that a young hitter can be too open to hitting it to all fields – my take: it’s generally a good thing, but, as we’ve all been taught at a young age, all things in moderation – but easy pull-side power will always be something scouts want to see. At times, it appeared Ray was almost fighting it. Finally, Ray’s improved plate discipline, while part of a larger trend in the right direction, could be a sample size and/or physical advantage thing more than a learned skill that can be expected each year going forward. Is he really the player who has drastically upped his BB% while knocking his K%? Or is just a hot hitter using his experience and intimidating presence – everybody knows and fears Corey Ray at the college level – to help goose the numbers? It should also pointed out that Ray’s gaudy start only ranks him seventh on the Louisville team in batting average, fourth in slugging, and ninth in on-base percentage. I’m not sure what that means, but it’s worth noting.

(I mentioned weaknesses I’ve heard, so I think it’s only fair to share my thoughts on what they mean for him going forward. I think he’s a center fielder at least until he hits thirty, so that’s a non-issue for me. The swing thing is interesting, but it’s not something I’m qualified to comment on at this time. And I think the truth about his plate discipline likely falls in between those two theories: I’d lean more towards the changes being real, though maybe not quite as real as they’ve looked on the stat sheet so far this year.)

So what do we have with Ray as we head into June? He’s the rare prospect to get the same comp from two separate sources this spring. Both D1Baseball and Baseball America have dropped a Ray Lankford comp on him. I’ve tried to top that, but I think it’s tough to beat, especially if you look at Lankford’s 162 game average: .272/.364/.477 with 23 HR, 25 SB, and 79 BB/148 K. Diamond Minds has some really cool old scouting reports on Lankford including a few gems from none other than Mike Rizzo if you are under thirty and don’t have as clear a picture of what type of player we’re talking about when we talk about a young Ray Lankford. One non-Lankford comparison that came to mind – besides the old BA comp of Jackie Bradley and alternatives at D1 that include Carlos Gonzalez and Curtis Granderson – was Charlie Blackmon. It’s not perfect and I admittedly went there in part because I saw Blackmon multiple teams at Georgia Tech, but Ray was a harder player than anticipated to find a good comparison for (must-haves: pop, speed, CF defense; bonus points: lefthanded hitter, similar short maxed-out athletic physique, past production similarities) than I initially thought. I think Blackmon hits a lot of the targets with the most notable difference being body type. Here’s a quick draft year comparison…

.396/.469/.564 – 20 BB/21 K – 25/30 SB – 250 AB
.331/.398/.611 – 18 BB/20 K – 31/36 SB – 157 AB

Top is Blackmon’s last year at Georgia Tech, bottom is Corey Ray (so far) in 2016. Here is Blackmon’s 162 game average to date: .287/.334/.435 with 16 HR, 29 SB, and 32 BB/98 K. Something in between Lankford (great physical comp) and Blackmon (better tools comp) could look like this: .280/.350/.450 with 18 HR, 27 SB, and 50 BB/120 K. That could be AJ Pollock at maturity. From his pre-draft report at Baseball America (I’d link to it but BA’s site is so bad that I have to log in and log out almost a half-dozen times any time I want to see old draft reports like this)…

Pollock stands out most for his athleticism and pure hitting ability from the right side. He has a simple approach, a quick bat and strong hands. Scouts do say he’ll have to stop cheating out on his front side and stay back more on pitches in pro ball…He projects as a 30 doubles/15 homers threat in the majors, and he’s a slightly above-average runner who has plus speed once he gets going. Pollock also has good instincts and a solid arm in center field.

Minus the part about the right side, that could easily fit for Ray. For good measure, here’s the Pollock (top) and Ray (bottom) draft year comparison…

.365/.445/.610 – 30 BB/24 K – 21/25 SB – 241 AB
.331/.398/.611 – 18 BB/20 K – 31/36 SB – 157 AB

Not too far off the mark. I’m coming around on Pollock as a potential big league peak comp for Ray. I think there are a lot of shared traits, assuming you’re as open to looking past the difference in handedness as I am. A friend offered Starling Marte, another righthanded bat, as an additional point of reference. I can dig it. Blackmon, Pollock, and Marte have each had above-average offensive seasons while showing the physical ability to man center field and swipe a bunch of bags. I also keep coming back to Odubel Herrera as a comparable talent, but I’m not sure I’m ready to go there just yet. He fits that overall profile, though. A well-rounded up-the-middle defender with above-average upside at the plate and on the bases who has the raw talent to put up a few star seasons in his peak: that’s the hope with Ray. The few red flags laid out above are enough to make that best case scenario less than a certainty than I’d want in a potential 1-1 pick, but his flaws aren’t so damning that the top ten (possibly top five) should be off the table.

So if Ray is worth a potential top five/ten pick, then what does that mean for the player ranked ahead of him? I’m close to out of superlatives for Zack Collins’s bat. If he can catch, he’s a superstar. If he can’t, then he’s still a potential big league power bat capable of hitting in the middle of the championship lineup for the next decade. I realize first basemen aren’t typically sought after at the top of the draft. There are perfectly valid reasons for that. But any time you have the chance at a potential top five bat at any given position, I think it’s all right to bend the rules a little. Positional value is important, but so is premium offensive production. Collins hitting and hitting a lot as a professional is one of the things I’m most sure about in this draft class.

Nick Solak is an outstanding hitter. He can hit any pitch in any count and has shown himself plenty capable of crushing mistakes. His approach is impeccable, his speed above-average, and his defense dependable. I think he’s the best college second baseman in this class. His teammate Blake Tiberi is just as exciting to me. I think there’s a legit plus hit tool there and his athleticism is fantastic for an infielder. Every other physical tool should be at least average. I think Tiberi could be a future big league regular at third. These Louisville hitters are really, really good.

Chris Okey’s play isn’t the cause for his drop in stock, but rather the stellar work of almost every single catcher at the top of this class previously thought to be either slightly ahead of him or behind him. If he’s still a top five college catcher, then maybe he’s fifth. I’d have a hard time putting him ahead of Collins, Matt Thaiss, Logan Ice, and Jake Rogers, so fifth seems like his new draft ceiling. Again, not an indictment of his season per se but merely the reality that others have held serve or passed him by. Meanwhile Preston Palmeiro hasn’t lit the world on fire so much that his stock should rise, but the shallowness of this year’s first base class helps him stay firmly in the top five mix at the position.

Kel Johnson and Willie Abreu are similar prospects who have gone in different directions this spring. Both have massive raw power with massive holes in their swings. Johnson, the “newer” of the two prospects, is seen as the ascending hitter while Abreu, after three long years at Miami, is a victim of prospect fatigue. They make for a fascinating draft day pair.

Ben DeLuzio and Jacob Heyward are like the anti-Johnson/Abreu pair. This year they’ve shown impressive plate discipline while underwhelming in the power department. They have both flashed average or better raw power in the past, so the hope that they will eventually put it all together remains.

There were a few players I thought could do big things before the season that have not done big things this year. That’s about the least eloquent thing I’ve ever written, but you know what I mean. My anticipated breakout for Kyle Fiala has not come. I don’t know what to make of him right now. Nate Mondou’s approach has stepped forward, but his power has fallen back. That’s confusing. And the two Clemson bats I’ve long liked, Weston Wilson and Eli White, still have lots to work on. A little bit of late season magic would do all of these players some good. I’ll be rooting for them.

Meanwhile, Connor Jones, TJ Zeuch, and Zac Gallen are the only names among the elite pitchers in the conference that I think are sure-fire professional starting pitchers over the long haul. I’m bullish on Justin Dunn being able to remain in the rotation and Kyle Funkhouser still has that upside, but that’s about it beyond the obvious names. That sums up the ACC in 2016 pitching for me: few starting pitching locks, tons of relievers, and no real consensus after the top guy…who I actually am less sure about than most.

I’ve gone back and forth on Jones a few times throughout the draft process. For as much as I like him, there’s something about his game doesn’t quite add up just yet. He checks every box you’d want in a near-ML ready starting pitching prospect, but it’s hard to get too excited about a pitcher who has never truly dominated at the college level. My big question about Jones is whether or not he has that second gear that will allow him to consistently put away big league hitters in times of trouble. His stuff is perfectly suited to killing worms; in fact, his sinker, slider, and splitter combination has resulted in an impressive 65.25 GB% in 2016. But he’ll have to miss more bats to be more than a back of the rotation starter at the highest level. His K/9 year-by-year at Virginia: 6.55, 8.77, and 6.79. Those aren’t the kinds of numbers you’d expect out of a guy being talked up in some circles as a potential top ten pick and first college pitcher selected in the draft. This evaluation of Jones is a little bit like the scattered thoughts on Corey Ray shared above in that it highlights how tough it can be when you’re one of the top prospects in the country. Potential top half of the first round prospects get nitpicked in a way that mid-round players never will. Jones, like Ray, is an excellent prospect, but because a) everybody already knows the top two dozen or so “name” draft prospects are excellent and continuously talking about how great they are is tired, and b) the greater investment in top prospects necessitates a more thorough examination of their total game, getting picked apart more than most comes with the territory.

TJ Zeuch has come back from injury seemingly without missing a beat. I’m a big fan of just about everything he does. He’s got the size (6-7, 225), body control, tempo, and temperament to hold up as a starting pitcher for a long time. He’s also got a legit four-pitch mix that allows him to mix and match in ways that routinely leave even good ACC hitters guessing.

Even though North Carolina posts their rosters so late in the winter that I can’t give them a proper preview, I still managed to touch on Zac Gallen some…

It’ll be really interesting to see how high Gallen will rise in the real draft come June. He’s the kind of relatively safe, high-floor starting pitching prospect who either sticks in the rotation for a decade or tops out as a sixth starter better served moving to the bullpen to see if his stuff plays up there. This aggressive (pretend) pick by Boston should point to what side of that debate I side with. Gallen doesn’t do any one thing particularly well — stellar fastball command and a willingness to keep pounding in cutters stand out — but he throws five (FB, cutter, truer SL, CB, CU) pitches for strikes and competes deep into just about every start. There’s serious value in that.

That holds up today. Gallen’s profile seems like the type who gets overlooked during the draft, overlooked in the minors, and overlooked until he’s run through a few big league lineups before people begin to get wise. That’s all entirely anecdotal, but sometimes you’ve got to run with a hunch.

I came very close to putting Justin Dunn in the top spot. If he continues to show that he can hold up as a starting pitcher, then there’s a chance he winds up as the best pitching prospect in this conference by June. I’d love to see a better change-up between now and then as well. I’m pretty sure I’m out of words when it comes to Kyle Funkhouser. I hold out some hope that he’ll be a better pro than college pitcher because his raw stuff at its best is really that good, but there’s just so much inconsistency to his game that I can’t go all-in on him again. Maybe he’s fulfills the promise he showed last year, maybe he winds up more of a consistently inconsistent fifth starter/swingman type, or maybe he’s destined to a life of relief work. I no longer have any clue where his career is heading. I feel liberated.

If either Funkhouser or Dunn winds up in the bullpen over the long haul, they’ll join a whole bunch of other ACC arms who might fit best as late-inning relievers in the pro ranks. Bailey Clark could keep starting, but most of the smarter folk I talk to seem to think he’ll fit best as a closer in the pros. At his best his stuff rivals the best Jones has to offer, but the Virginia righthander’s command edge and less stressful delivery make him the better bet to remain in the rotation. I personally wouldn’t rule out Clark having a long and fruitful career as a starting pitcher, but I’ll concede that the thought of him unleashing his plus to plus-plus fastball (90-96, 98 peak and impossible to square up consistently) over and over again in shorter outings is mighty appealing. Truer relievers like Zack Burdi (who I think I like better than his brother), AJ Bogucki, Bryan Garcia, Spencer Trayner, and Jim Ziemba will all be valued in different ways come draft day, but all have the present ability to be quick movers and early contributors.

I don’t normally say stuff like this, but here we go: I really like how the ACC hitting list came out. If you listen to me about any one specific list this spring, this should probably be the one.

Hitters

Miami JR C/1B Zack Collins
Louisville JR OF Corey Ray
Virginia JR C Matt Thaiss
Wake Forest JR 1B/RHP Will Craig
Louisville JR 2B/OF Nick Solak
Louisville rSO 3B/SS Blake Tiberi
Notre Dame JR 2B/3B Cavan Biggio
Clemson JR C Chris Okey
North Carolina State JR C/3B Andrew Knizner
North Carolina JR OF Tyler Ramirez
North Carolina State JR 1B/OF Preston Palmeiro
Georgia Tech SO OF/1B Kel Johnson
Miami JR OF Willie Abreu
Virginia JR SS/3B Daniel Pinero
Georgia Tech JR SS Connor Justus
Florida State JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio
Miami JR OF Jacob Heyward
Notre Dame JR 2B/SS Kyle Fiala
Wake Forest JR 2B/OF Nate Mondou
Clemson JR 3B/SS Weston Wilson
Clemson JR SS/2B Eli White
Wake Forest JR C Ben Breazeale
North Carolina JR OF Tyler Lynn
Virginia Tech rJR OF Saige Jenco
Florida State SR 2B/SS John Sansone
Florida State JR 1B/C Quincy Nieporte
Louisville JR C Will Smith
Louisville JR OF Logan Taylor
Clemson rSO OF/1B Reed Rohlman
Miami SR SS Brandon Lopez
Boston College SR 3B/SS Joe Cronin
North Carolina JR OF Adam Pate
Georgia Tech JR OF Ryan Peurifoy
Georgia Tech JR C Arden Pabst
Florida State JR C/OF Gage West
Miami JR 2B/SS Johnny Ruiz
North Carolina SR SS/2B Eli Sutherland
Florida State JR SS/2B Matt Henderson
Georgia Tech JR OF Keenan Innis
Boston College JR SS/3B Johnny Adams
Boston College JR C Nick Sciortino
Duke JR C Cristian Perez
Notre Dame SR SS Lane Richards
Georgia Tech SR 3B/SS Matt Gonzalez
Virginia SR C Robbie Coman
Wake Forest SR OF/2B Joey Rodriguez
Notre Dame SR OF/LHP Zac Kutsulis
Louisville JR OF Colin Lyman
Duke rJR OF/1B Jalen Phillips
Notre Dame JR C Ryan Lidge
North Carolina State SR C Chance Shepard
Pittsburgh SR OF/LHP Aaron Schnurbusch
Pittsburgh JR OF Nick Yarnall
Pittsburgh JR C Caleb Parry
Notre Dame rSO OF Torii Hunter
North Carolina State SR 3B/SS Ryne Willard
Louisville SR 1B/3B Dan Rosenbaum
Miami rJR 1B/OF Chris Barr
Clemson rSO 3B Glenn Batson
Clemson rJR OF Maleeke Gibson

Pitchers

Virginia JR RHP Connor Jones
Pittsburgh JR RHP TJ Zeuch
Boston College JR RHP Justin Dunn
Duke JR RHP Bailey Clark
Louisville JR RHP Zack Burdi
North Carolina JR RHP Zac Gallen
Louisville SR RHP Kyle Funkhouser
North Carolina JR RHP AJ Bogucki
Miami JR RHP Bryan Garcia
North Carolina JR RHP Spencer Trayner
Clemson SR RHP Clate Schmidt
Louisville JR LHP Drew Harrington
Wake Forest JR RHP Parker Dunshee
Clemson rSO LHP Alex Bostic
Duke rSO LHP Jim Ziemba
Boston College JR RHP Mike King
Wake Forest SR RHP/C Garrett Kelly
Virginia JR RHP Alec Bettinger
North Carolina State JR RHP Joe O’Donnell
North Carolina State JR LHP Ryan Williamson
Georgia Tech JR RHP/3B Brandon Gold
Florida State JR LHP Alec Byrd
Florida State rSO RHP Ed Voyles
Florida State rSR RHP Tyler Warmoth
Clemson rSR RHP Patrick Andrews
Duke rSO RHP Karl Blum
Georgia Tech JR RHP Matthew Gorst
North Carolina SO RHP/1B Ryder Ryan
Miami SR RHP Enrique Sosa
North Carolina State rSR RHP Kyle Smith
Miami JR LHP Danny Garcia
North Carolina rSR RHP Chris McCue
Virginia Tech JR RHP Aaron McGarity
North Carolina State JR RHP Cory Wilder
Virginia rSO RHP Jack Roberts
North Carolina State rJR RHP Johnny Piedmonte
Clemson JR LHP Pat Krall
Boston College SR LHP Jesse Adams
Duke rSR RHP Brian McAfee
North Carolina State SR LHP Will Gilbert
Louisville JR RHP Jake Sparger
Georgia Tech rSR RHP Cole Pitts
Georgia Tech JR RHP Zac Ryan
Boston College SR RHP John Nicklas
Georgia Tech SR LHP/OF Jonathan King
Florida State rJR LHP Alex Diese
Virginia rJR LHP/OF Kevin Doherty
Pittsburgh SR RHP Aaron Sandefur
Florida State rSO RHP Andy Ward
Wake Forest rSO RHP Chris Farish
North Carolina State rJR RHP Karl Keglovits
Virginia Tech JR RHP Luke Scherzer
Virginia Tech rSO RHP Ryan Lauria
North Carolina State rSR LHP Travis Orwig
North Carolina JR LHP Zach Rice
Notre Dame SR RHP David Hearne
Miami rSO RHP Andy Honiotes
Florida State rSO RHP Taylor Blatch
Duke rSR RHP Kellen Urbon
Clemson rSO RHP Drew Moyer
Clemson rJR RHP Wales Toney
Clemson rJR RHP/1B Jackson Campana
North Carolina State rJR LHP Sean Adler
Wake Forest JR RHP Connor Johnstone
Florida State rSR RHP Mike Compton
Duke rSR LHP Trent Swart
Louisville SR RHP Anthony Kidston
Wake Forest JR RHP John McCarren
Virginia JR RHP Tyler Shambora
Miami SR LHP Thomas Woodrey
Virginia Tech rJR LHP Kit Scheetz
Virginia SR LHP David Rosenberger
Notre Dame JR RHP Ryan Smoyer
Virginia JR RHP Holden Grounds
Notre Dame SR LHP Michael Hearne
Pittsburgh JR RHP Matt Pidich
Florida State rSO RHP Will Zirzow
Duke SR LHP Nick Hendrix
Notre Dame SR RHP Nick McCarty
Miami JR RHP Cooper Hammond
Pittsburgh JR RHP Sam Mersing
North Carolina State rSO LHP Cody Beckman
Virginia Tech rSR LHP Jon Woodcock
Georgia Tech JR LHP Ben Parr
Wake Forest rSR RHP Aaron Fossas
North Carolina State rSR RHP Chris Williams

Boston College

SR LHP Jesse Adams (2016)
SR RHP John Nicklas (2016)
JR RHP Justin Dunn (2016)
JR RHP Mike King (2016)
JR RHP Bobby Skogsbergh (2016)
SR 3B/SS Joe Cronin (2016)
SR OF Logan Hoggarth (2016)
SR C Stephen Sauter (2016)
JR SS/3B Johnny Adams (2016)
JR C Nick Sciortino (2016)
JR OF/RHP Michael Strem (2016)
SO RHP Brian Rapp (2017)
SO RHP/OF Donovan Casey (2017)
SO 2B/3B Jake Palomaki (2017)
FR RHP Jacob Stevens (2017)
FR C Gian Martellini (2018)

High Priority Follows: Jesse Adams, John Nicklas, Justin Dunn, Mike King, Joe Cronin, Johnny Adams, Nick Sciortino, Michael Strem

Clemson

SR RHP Clate Schmidt (2016)
rSR RHP Patrick Andrews (2016)
rJR RHP Wales Toney (2016)
rJR RHP Garrett Lovorn (2016)
rSO LHP Alex Bostic (2016)
JR LHP Pat Krall (2016)
JR LHP Andrew Towns (2016)
rSO RHP Drew Moyer (2016)
rJR RHP/1B Jackson Campana (2016)
JR C Chris Okey (2016)
JR SS/2B Eli White (2016)
JR 3B/SS Weston Wilson (2016)
rSO OF/1B Reed Rohlman (2016)
rSO 3B Glenn Batson (2016)
rJR OF Maleeke Gibson (2016)
rJR 1B/OF Andrew Cox (2016)
FR LHP Jake Higginbotham (2017)
SO LHP Charlie Barnes (2017)
rFR RHP Alex Eubanks (2017)
SO RHP Paul Campbell (2017)
SO 3B/2B Adam Renwick (2017)
SO OF Chase Pinder (2017)
rFR OF KJ Bryant (2017)
SO SS Grayson Byrd (2017)
SO OF Drew Wharton (2017)
SO C Robert Jolly (2017)
SO C/1B Chris Williams (2017)
FR RHP Ryley Gilliam (2018)
FR RHP Zach Goodman (2018)
FR RHP Graham Lawson (2018)
FR RHP/1B Brooks Crawford (2018)
FR RHP Tom Walker (2018)
FR RHP Andrew Papp (2018)
FR C Jordan Greene (2018)
FR SS/2B Grant Cox (2018)
FR OF Seth Beer (2018)

High Priority Follows: Clate Schmidt, Patrick Andrews, Wales Toney, Alex Bostic, Pat Krall, Drew Moyer, Jackson Campana, Chris Okey, Eli White, Weston Wilson, Reed Rohlman, Glenn Batson, Maleeke Gibson

Duke

JR RHP Bailey Clark (2016)
rSO RHP Karl Blum (2016)
rSO LHP Jim Ziemba (2016)
rSR RHP Brian McAfee (2016)
SR LHP Nick Hendrix (2016)
rSR RHP Conner Stevens (2016)
JR LHP Kevin Lewallyn (2016)
rSR LHP Trent Swart (2016)
rSR RHP Kellen Urbon (2016)
rJR OF/1B Jalen Phillips (2016)
JR C Cristian Perez (2016)
SO LHP Chris McGrath (2017)
SO LHP Mitch Stallings (2017)
SO RHP/SS Ryan Day (2017)
SO 3B/RHP Jack Labosky (2017)
SO 1B Justin Bellinger (2017)
SO 3B/SS Max Miller (2017)
SO 2B/OF Peter Zyla (2017)
SO OF Michael Smicicklas (2017)
SO OF Evan Dougherty (2017)
FR RHP Al Pesto (2018)
FR OF Keyston Fuller (2018)
FR OF Kennie Taylor (2018)
FR OF Jimmy Herron (2018)
FR SS Zack Kone (2018)
FR SS Zack Kesterson (2018)
FR OF Griffin Conine (2018)

High Priority Follows: Bailey Clark, Karl Blum, Jim Ziemba, Brian McAfee, Nick Hendrix, Conner Stevens, Trent Swart, Kellen Urbon, Jalen Phillips, Cristian Perez

Florida State

rSR RHP Mike Compton (2016)
rJR LHP Alex Diese (2016)
rSO RHP Taylor Blatch (2016)
JR LHP Alec Byrd (2016)
rSO RHP Andy Ward (2016)
rSO RHP Ed Voyles (2016)
JR RHP Jim Voyles (2016)
rSO RHP Will Zirzow (2016)
rSR LHP Matt Kinney (2016)
rSR RHP Tyler Warmoth (2016)
JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio (2016)
JR 1B/C Quincy Nieporte (2016)
SR 2B/SS John Sansone (2016)
JR C/OF Gage West (2016)
JR 1B/OF Hank Truluck (2016)
JR SS/2B Matt Henderson (2016)
JR C Bryan Bussey (2016)
FR LHP/OF Tyler Holton (2017)
SO RHP Cobi Johnson (2017)
rFR RHP Andrew Karp (2017)
SO RHP Drew Carlton (2017)
SO OF/RHP Steven Wells (2017)
SO C/1B Darren Miller (2017)
SO SS/3B Dylan Busby (2017)
SO SS/2B Taylor Walls (2017)
FR RHP Cole Sands (2018)
FR LHP Jared Middleton (2018)
FR RHP Chase Haney (2018)
FR RHP Ronnie Ramirez (2018)
FR RHP Dillon Brown (2018)
FR C Caleb Raleigh (2018)
FR C/OF Jackson Lueck (2018)
FR OF Donovan Petrey (2018)

High Priority Follows: Mike Compton, Alex Diese, Taylor Blatch, Alec Byrd, Andy Ward, Ed Voyles, Jim Voyles, Will Zirzow, Matt Kinney, Tyler Warmoth, Ben DeLuzio, Quincy Nieporte, John Sansome, Gage West, Hank Truluck, Matt Henderson

Georgia Tech

JR LHP Ben Parr (2016)
JR RHP Matthew Gorst (2016)
SR LHP/OF Jonathan King (2016)
JR RHP/3B Brandon Gold (2016)
JR RHP Zac Ryan (2016)
rSR RHP Cole Pitts (2016)
JR LHP Tanner Shelton (2016)
JR RHP Matt Phillips (2016)
SO OF/1B Kel Johnson (2016)
JR OF Keenan Innis (2016)
JR OF Ryan Peurifoy (2016)
JR C Arden Pabst (2016)
JR SS Connor Justus (2016)
SR 3B/SS Matt Gonzalez (2016)
SO RHP Patrick Wiseman (2017)
SO 2B Wade Bailey (2017)
SO 3B/C Trevor Graport (2017)
FR RHP Jonathan Hughes (2018)
FR RHP Tristin English (2018)
FR RHP Bobby Gavreau (2018)
FR RHP Keyton Gibson (2018)
FR RHP Jake Lee (2018)
FR RHP Micah Carpenter (2018)
FR RHP Burton Dulaney (2018)
FR C Joey Bart (2018)
FR OF/1B Brandt Stallings (2018)
FR 2B/SS Carter Hall (2018)
FR 2B/SS Jackson Webb (2018)

High Priority Follows: Ben Parr, Matthew Gorst, Jonathan King, Brandon Gold, Zac Ryan, Cole Pitts, Kel Johnson, Keenan Innis, Ryan Peurifoy, Arden Pabst, Connor Justus, Matt Gonzalez

Louisville

SR RHP Kyle Funkhouser (2016)
JR RHP Zack Burdi (2016)
JR LHP Drew Harrington (2016)
SR RHP Anthony Kidston (2016)
JR RHP Jake Sparger (2016)
rSR RHP Ryan Smith (2016)
JR RHP Shane Hummel (2016)
JR OF Corey Ray (2016)
rSO 3B/SS Blake Tiberi (2016)
JR 2B/OF Nick Solak (2016)
JR OF Logan Taylor (2016)
JR OF Colin Lyman (2016)
JR C Will Smith (2016)
SR 1B/3B Dan Rosenbaum (2016)
rSO OF/C Ryan Summers (2016)
SO RHP Kade McClure (2017)
SO RHP Lincoln Henzman (2017)
SO RHP Sean Leland (2017)
SO LHP/1B Brendan McKay (2017)
SO C Colby Fitch (2017)
SO SS/2B Devin Hairston (2017)
FR RHP Riley Thompson (2017)
FR RHP Sam Bordner (2018)
FR RHP Bryan Hoeing (2018)
FR RHP Noah Burkholder (2018)
FR LHP Adam Wolf (2018)
FR OF Josh Stowers (2018)
FR INF Devin Mann (2018)
FR OF Chris Botsoe (2018)
FR C Zeke Pinkham (2018)
FR SS Daniel Little (2018)
FR 3B Drew Ellis (2018)

High Priority Follows: Kyle Funkhouser, Zack Burdi, Drew Harrington, Anthony Kidston, Jake Sparger, Corey Ray, Blake Tiberi, Nick Solak, Logan Taylor, Colin Lyman, Will Smith, Dan Rosenbaum, Ryan Summers

Miami

SR LHP Thomas Woodrey (2016)
JR RHP Cooper Hammond (2016)
JR RHP Bryan Garcia (2016)
JR LHP Danny Garcia (2016)
SR RHP Enrique Sosa (2016)
rSO RHP Andy Honiotes (2016)
JR C/1B Zack Collins (2016)
JR OF Willie Abreu (2016)
JR OF Jacob Heyward (2016)
SR SS Brandon Lopez (2016)
rJR 1B/OF Chris Barr (2016)
JR 2B/SS Johnny Ruiz (2016)
JR INF Randy Batista (2016)
JR 1B Edgar Michelangeli (2016)
SO LHP Michael Mediavilla (2017)
SO RHP Jesse Lepore (2017)
rFR RHP Keven Pimentel (2017)
rFR RHP Devin Meyer (2017)
rFR LHP Luke Spangler (2017)
SO OF Carl Chester (2017)
FR RHP Andrew Cabezas (2018)
FR RHP Frankie Bartow (2018)
FR 3B Romy Gonzalez (2018)

High Priority Follows: Thomas Woodrey, Cooper Hammond, Bryan Garcia, Danny Garcia, Enrique Sosa, Sandy Honiotes, Zack Collins, Willie Abreu, Jacob Heyward, Brandon Lopez, Chris Barr, Johnny Ruiz

North Carolina

JR RHP AJ Bogucki (2016)
JR RHP Zac Gallen (2016)
JR LHP Zach Rice (2016)
rSR RHP Chris McCue (2016)
JR RHP Spencer Trayner (2016)
SO RHP/1B Ryder Ryan (2016)
JR OF Tyler Ramirez (2016)
JR OF Tyler Lynn (2016)
JR OF Adam Pate (2016)
SR SS/2B Eli Sutherland (2016)
SO RHP JB Bukauskas (2017)
SO RHP Jason Morgan (2017)
SO RHP Hansen Butler (2017)
SO RHP Brett Daniels (2017)
SO LHP/1B Hunter Williams (2017)
SO OF/1B Brian Miller (2017)
SO 3B/SS Zack Gahagan (2017)
SO SS/2B Logan Warmoth (2017)
FR 3B/RHP Kyle Datres (2017)
FR LHP Brendon Little (2018)
RHP Taylor Sugg (2018)
FR RHP Cole Aker (2018)
FR RHP Rodney Hutchison (2018)
FR C/RHP Cody Roberts (2018)
FR C Wyatt Cross (2018)
FR C Brendan Illies (2018)
FR OF Josh Ladowski (2018)
FR SS Utah Jones (2018)
FR OF Brandon Riley (2018)

High Priority Follows: AJ Bogucki, Zac Gallen, Zach Rice, Chris McCue, Spencer Trayner, Ryder Ryan, Tyler Ramirez, Tyler Lynn, Adam Pate, Eli Sutherland

North Carolina State

JR RHP Joe O’Donnell (2016)
rJR LHP Sean Adler (2016)
rJR RHP Johnny Piedmonte (2016)
JR RHP Cory Wilder (2016)
rSR LHP Travis Orwig (2016)
SR LHP Will Gilbert (2016)
rJR RHP Karl Keglovits (2016)
rSR RHP Kyle Smith (2016)
rSR RHP Chris Williams (2016)
rSO LHP Cody Beckman (2016)
JR LHP Ryan Williamson (2016)
JR C/3B Andrew Knizner (2016)
JR 1B/OF Preston Palmeiro (2016)
SR 3B/SS Ryne Willard (2016)
SR C Chance Shepard (2016)
rSO OF Garrett Suggs (2016)
SO LHP Brian Brown (2017)
SO RHP Evan Brabrand (2017)
SO RHP/3B Evan Mendoza (2017)
SO RHP/INF Tommy DeJuneas (2017)
rFR OF Storm Edwards (2017)
SO OF Josh McLain (2017)
SO 3B/SS Joe Dunand (2017)
SO 2B Stephen Pitarra (2017)
SO OF Brock Deatherage (2017)
SO OF Shane Shepard (2017)
FR SS/OF Xavier LeGrant (2018)

High Priority Follows: Joe O’Donnell, Sean Adler, Johnny Piedmonte, Cory Wilder, Travis Orwig, Will Gilbert, Karl Keglovits, Kyle Smith, Chris Williams, Cody Beckman, Ryan Williamson, Andrew Knizner, Preston Palmeiro, Ryne Willard, Chance Shepard,

Notre Dame

SR RHP Nick McCarty (2016)
SR RHP David Hearne (2016)
SR LHP Michael Hearne (2016)
JR RHP Ryan Smoyer (2016)
JR LHP Jim Orwick (2016)
JR LHP Scott Tully (2016)
SR RHP Connor Hale (2016)
SR OF/LHP Zac Kutsulis (2016)
JR 2B/3B Cavan Biggio (2016)
JR 2B/SS Kyle Fiala (2016)
SR SS Lane Richards (2016)
JR C Ryan Lidge (2016)
rSO OF Torii Hunter (2016)
SR C/OF Ricky Sanchez (2016)
SO RHP Brad Bass (2017)
SO LHP Sean Guenther (2017)
SO RHP Brandon Bielak (2017)
SO RHP Peter Solomon (2017)
SO RHP Evy Ruibal (2017)
SO OF Jake Johnson (2017)
FR RHP Connor Hock (2018)
FR RHP Chris Connolly (2018)
FR OF/RHP Matt Vierling (2018)
FR 3B Jake Singer (2018)
FR OF Connor Stutts (2018)

High Priority Follows: Nick McCarty, David Hearne, Michael Hearne, Ryan Smoyer, Scott Tully, Zac Kutsulis, Cavan Biggio, Kyle Fiala, Lane Richards, Ryan Lidge, Torii Hunter, Ricky Sanchez

Pittsburgh

JR RHP TJ Zeuch (2016)
SR RHP Aaron Sandefur (2016)
JR RHP Sam Mersing (2016)
rSO LHP Josh Mitchell (2016)
JR RHP Matt Pidich (2016)
SR OF/LHP Aaron Schnurbusch (2016)
SR C Alex Kowalczyk (2016)
rJR OF Jacob Wright (2016)
JR INF Ron Sherman (2016)
JR OF Nick Yarnall (2016)
JR C Caleb Parry (2016)
JR C Manny Pazos (2016)
rSO OF Frank Maldonado (2016)
SO RHP Isaac Mattson (2017)
SO 3B/SS Charles LeBlanc (2017)
FR LHP Clayton Morrell (2018)
FR RHP Derek West (2018)
FR OF Yasin Chentouf (2018)

High Priority Follows: TJ Zeuch, Aaron Sandefur, Sam Mersing, Matt Pidich, Aaron Schnurbusch, Alex Kowalczyk, Jacob Wright, Ron Sherman, Nick Yarnall, Caleb Parry, Frank Maldonado

Virginia

JR RHP Connor Jones (2016)
JR RHP Alec Bettinger (2016)
rSO RHP Jack Roberts (2016)
SR LHP David Rosenberger (2016)
JR RHP Tyler Shambora (2016)
JR RHP Holden Grounds (2016)
rJR LHP/OF Kevin Doherty (2016)
JR C Matt Thaiss (2016)
SR C Robbie Coman (2016)
JR SS/3B Daniel Pinero (2016)
SO RHP Tommy Doyle (2017)
SO RHP Derek Casey (2017)
SO LHP Bennett Sousa (2017)
SO OF/LHP Adam Haseley (2017)
SO 3B Charlie Cody (2017)
SO 2B/OF Ernie Clement (2017)
SO 2B Jack Gerstenmaier (2017)
SO C/2B Justin Novak (2017)
SO 1B/RHP Pavin Smith (2017)
FR OF Doak Dozier (2017)
FR RHP Evan Sperling (2018)
FR LHP Daniel Lynch (2018)
FR LHP Connor Eason (2018)
FR RHP Grant Sloan (2018):
FR OF/RHP Cameron Simmons (2018)
FR 3B Ryan Karstetter (2018)
FR 2B/SS Andy Weber (2018)
FR 3B/1B Nate Eikhoff (2018)
FR OF Jake McCarthy (2018)
FR INF Jon Meola (2018)

High Priority Follows: Connor Jones, Alec Bettinger, Jack Roberts, David Rosenberger, Tyler Shambora, Holden Grounds, Kevin Doherty, Matt Thaiss, Robbie Coman, Daniel Pinero

Virginia Tech

rJR LHP Kit Scheetz (2016)
rSR LHP Jon Woodcock (2016)
JR RHP Aaron McGarity (2016)
JR RHP Luke Scherzer (2016)
rSO RHP Ryan Lauria (2016)
rJR 1B/LHP Phil Sciretta (2016)
rJR OF Saige Jenco (2016)
rSR OF Logan Bible (2016)
JR OF Mac Caples (2016)
JR 3B/SS Ryan Tufts (2016)
SR C Andrew Mogg (2016)
rSO OF Nick Anderson (2016)
rSO OF/LHP Tom Stoffel (2016)
SO LHP Packy Naughton (2017)
SO OF/3B Max Ponzurik (2017)
SO C Joe Freiday (2017)
FR RHP Nic Enright (2018)
FR RHP Culver Hughes (2018)
FR RHP Cole Kragel (2018)
FR RHP Payton Holdsworth (2018)
FR LHP/1B Patrick Hall (2018)
FR RHP Tim Salvadore (2018)
FR OF/1B Stevie Mangrum (2018)
FR C/OF Stephen Polansky (2018)

High Priority Follows: Kit Scheetz, Jon Woodcock, Aaron McGarity, Luke Scherzer, Ryan Lauria, Phil Sciretta, Saige Jenco, Mac Caples, Ryan Tufts, Nick Anderson

Wake Forest

SR RHP/C Garrett Kelly (2016)
rSR RHP Aaron Fossas (2016)
JR RHP Parker Dunshee (2016)
rSO RHP Chris Farish (2016)
JR RHP Connor Johnstone (2016)
JR RHP John McCarren (2016)
rSO RHP Parker Johnson (2016)
JR 1B/RHP Will Craig (2016)
JR C Ben Breazeale (2016)
SR OF/2B Joey Rodriguez (2016)
JR 2B/OF Nate Mondou (2016)
rSR OF Kevin Conway (2016)
JR OF Jonathan Pryor (2016)
SO RHP Drew Loepprich (2017)
SO RHP Donnie Sellers (2016)
SO OF Stuart Fairchild (2017)
SO 1B Gavin Sheets (2017)
SO OF Keegan Maronpot (2017)
SO SS/2B Drew Freedman (2017)
SO SS/2B Bruce Steel (2017)
FR LHP Tyler Witt (2018)
FR RHP Griffin Roberts (2018)
FR RHP Rayne Supple (2018)
FR 3B/SS John Aiello (2018)

High Priority Follows: Garrett Kelly, Aaron Fossas, Parker Dunshee, Chris Farish, Connor Johnstone, John McCarren, Parker Johnson, Will Craig, Ben Breazeale, Joey Rodriguez, Nate Mondou, Kevin Conway, Jonathan Pryor

EDIT: Sellers is a 2016 draft-eligible sophomore. Fastball up to 95 with a solid slider. He’ll be included on future lists.

2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – ACC (PART ONE)

20 Apr 2016 6:00 AM / 2 Comments on 2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – ACC (PART ONE)

Every team in the ACC that had rosters up before the season began got the full team-by-team profile treatment. Below are links to those teams — sorry Louisville, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Virginia fans — as well as a brief excerpt that touches on a player that stood out to me as being particularly interesting.

Full prospect lists, follow lists, and additional commentary (with an emphasis on the teams I missed pre-season) should be ready tomorrow. Expect a lot of words about Louisville’s big offensive three (deep diving on Corey Ray), stock up/stock down on a few of the conference’s top position players, and a few head-to-head player comparisons. They’ll also be something about the ACC’s top pitchers, but I haven’t written that just yet…

Boston College

JR RHP Justin Dunn has the chance to have the kind of big junior season that puts him in the top five round conversation this June. Like Adams and Nicklas, Dunn’s size might be a turn-off for some teams. Unlike those guys, it figures to be easier to overlook because of a potent fastball/breaking ball one-two punch. Though he’s matured as a pitcher in many ways since enrolling at BC, he’s still a little rough around the edges with respect to both his command and control. His arm speed (consistently 90-94, up to 96) and that aforementioned low-80s slider are what put him in the early round mix. If he can continue to make strides with his command and control and gain a little consistency with a third pitch (he’s shown both a CB and a CU already, but both need work), then he’ll really rise. That’s a pretty obvious statement now that I read it back, but I think it probably can apply to about 75% of draft prospects before the season begins. No sense in hiding from it, I suppose.

Clemson

His [Chris Okey] defense behind the plate never quite reached the threshold where you’d call any one component of his game consistently plus. He’s shown some plus pop times in the past, sure, but not as often as average to above-average times. I don’t think anybody would have imagined he’d get more athletic past his teenage years — time has a way of catching up to everybody — but there is a little bit more stiffness to him at present than you might think if going off those old scouting reports. He’s still the athletic, above-average all-around defensive catcher who can run a little bit that we mentioned at the top. And if we’re going to call him out some for slipping a bit — or, perhaps more accurately, not developing as hoped — with the glove, then it’s only right to praise him for the maturation of his power. What was once considered promising but far off has turned into displays of average or better present power with the shot at plus raw still out there. I’d err on the side of caution with his future power grade and put him closer to the average to above-average range where it currently plays, but that still means he could be a steady 15-20 home run bat at his peak. One interesting name that I heard as a comparison that makes a little bit of sense: Mike Lieberthal.

Duke

[Bailey] Clark is really good, but still leaves you wanting more. That’s not necessarily a bad thing — being a finished product at 20-years-old is more of a negative than a positive in the eyes of many in the scouting world — but it speaks to the developmental challenges facing Clark if he wants to jump up into the first round mix. The fastball (88-94, 96 peak) is there, the size (6-5, 210) is there, and the athleticism is there, so it’ll come down to gaining more command and consistency on his mid-80s cut-SL (a knockout pitch when on) and trusting his nascent changeup in game action enough to give scouts an honest opportunity to assess it. Even if little changes with Clark between now and June, we’re still talking a top five round lock with the high-floor possibility of future late-inning reliever. If he makes the expected leap in 2016, then the first round will have to make room for one more college arm.

Florida State

As is the case with many players who have a bushel of tools rattled off at the top of their dossier, the big question surrounding [Ben] DeLuzio is how much he’ll hit and whether or not his approach will ever improve enough to allow him to tap into his raw power and considerable athletic ability. In this way, he’s similar to many of this year’s draft’s top college prospects while also being a fascinating outlier in history of the Seminoles hitters. He’s not DJ Stewart. He’s not Stephen or Mike McGee. He’s not James Ramsey or Jayce Boyd or Devon Travis or Tyler Holt. That’s both a good and bad thing. I’m not a Florida State historian so I’m sure I’ll hear from fans of the team via email for this, but a case could be made that he’s the highest upside athlete to play in Tallahassee since Buster Posey. Maybe you could argue Taiwan Easterling, D’Vontrey Richardson, or Justin Gonzalez, but the point is that DeLuzio would be at or near the top of the list over the past decade or so. For all his gifts, however, DeLuzio still swings and misses a lot. That’s not a trait shared by the aforementioned Stewart, McGee’s, Ramsey, Boyd, Travis, or Holt. Of that group, the guy he is most similar to both athletically and from a plate discipline standpoint is Travis. In no way is it a direct comparison, but a bigger Devon Travis isn’t the worst frame of reference to what DeLuzio could be. DeLuzio needs to find out whatever it is that helped Travis make the jump from athletic yet raw college hacker to athletic yet refined professional hitter. If I knew what it took or could predict a breakout, I’d…well, I’d probably still be doing this because babies and mortgages are expensive and entry level baseball jobs are for men and women much younger than myself.

Georgia Tech

The Pence comparison [for OF/1B Kel Johnson] was and is physical only; like, the two look similar but don’t have the same game. As a freshman Johnson did pretty much as expected: tons of power with lots of swing and miss. I’d actually say his contact skills were better than what we could have hoped. I’m cautiously optimistic heading into his second college season though the aforementioned swing and miss issues and defensive questions (maybe a LF, likely a 1B) are red flags.

Miami

I love JR C/1B Zack Collins as a prospect. His brand of power isn’t typically seen in amateur prospects. His approach, which will always include lots of swings and misses especially on the slow stuff, has matured enough that I think he’ll post average or better on-base numbers as a pro. He’s what we would charitably call a “work in progress” behind the plate, but all of the buzz out of fall practice (always positive and player-friendly, it should be noted) seems to indicate he may have turned the corner defensively. The comparisons to Kyle Schwarber make all the sense in the world right now: they are both big guys who move better than you’d think with defensive questions at their primary position, massive raw power, the ability to unleash said power in game action, and a patient approach that leads to loads of walks and whiffs. The edge for Schwarber comes in his hit tool; I think Schwarber’s was and will be ahead of Collins’s, so we’re talking the difference between above-average to average/slightly below-average. That hit tool combined with plus raw power, an approach I’m fond of, and the chance of playing regularly behind the plate (with an all-around offensive profile good enough to thrive elsewhere) make Collins one of my favorite 2016 draft prospects.

North Carolina State

JR C Andrew Knizner is a fascinating prospect who doesn’t quite fit the mold of what one might think of a potential top five round college catcher. Defensively, he’s still very much out of sorts as a relatively new catcher but his athleticism and willingness to make it work could be enough for teams willing to take the long view on his pro future. Offensively, he’s a high contact hitter with excellent plate coverage and power that has a chance to be average or better as he continues to add strength. I tend to give players new to a demanding defensive position the benefit of the doubt for as long as possible, so I’m fine with riding out another half-season or so of shaky defense behind the plate before beginning to ask the question whether or not Knizner has what it takes to be a catcher full-time in the pros. Almost no matter what transpires on the field this year, I can’t see a team drafting Knizner high enough that he’s signable with the intention of at least continuing to try him as a catcher for the foreseeable future. He’s good enough in other areas that it’s not quite a catcher or bust proposition for him, but that depends on how high one’s expectations are for him at this point.

I’m still on the fence some about JR 1B Preston Palmeiro, but he has some very vocal fans out there who love his swing and think he has a chance to be an average or better hitter with above-average power production. Being a primary first base prospect at the amateur level is a tricky thing with a bit more to it than many — myself included — think about. On the one hand, it’s obvious that being limited defensively to first base drastically increases the threshold of entry to professional baseball as a hitter. You need to hit and hit and hit to make it. On the other hand, there simply isn’t the same competition at first base at the amateur level as there is at other spots. I know that many a big league first baseman played elsewhere along the way, but if we’re just talking about getting drafted in the first place then the competitive field begins to look a lot thinner. In other words, if Palmeiro goes out and hits the shit out of the ball all spring, then what’s to stop a team from valuing that bat higher than we’re conditioned to think because of the relative lack of options to be found later in the draft? Up the middle players are wonderful and we know they dominate these drafts for a reason, but with offensive production (power, especially) growing increasingly scarce at the highest level perhaps the place for a big bat a team believes in will come sooner on draft day.

Notre Dame

[Cavan] Biggio’s hit tool, patience, and ability to play important infield spots at a high level still have him at or near the first round range for me. Not sure if it’s instructive or not, but I like looking back at Biggio’s placement between Tyler O’Neill and Billy McKinney (the two hitters who signed pro deals that sandwiched Biggio in his initial draft year) and using that as a starting point as to what kind of hitter I think he can be as a professional. O’Neill if he sells out some of his patience and contact skills for power and McKinney if he keeps progressing as a hitter as is. McKinney in the infield is a pretty interesting prospect and one that I think can play his way into the first round even in a top-heavy year. Two pros that I’ve heard him compared to so far are Ryan Roberts (realistic floor) and Justin Turner (hopeful ceiling). I can see it.

Virginia Tech

[Saige] Jenco followed the Gentry college career path fairly well by putting up an improved .136 ISO last year. The Red Sox couldn’t get him to put his name on a pro contract last summer and their loss is the Hokies gain. Not much has changed in his overall profile from a year ago — he’s still fast, he still has an advanced approach, he can still chase down deep flies in center — so the ceiling of a fourth outfielder remains. Of course, guys with fourth outfielder ceilings with similar skill sets (speed, patience, defense) have turned into starting players for some teams as the dearth of power in the modern game has shifted the balance back to the Jenco’s of the world.

Not all of these guys are great examples of that archetype, but a quick search of 2015 seasons of corner outfielders (200 PA minimum) who slugged less than .400 but still finished with positive fWAR includes Brett Gardner, Nori Aoki, Jarrod Dyson, Ben Revere, Delino Deshields, Rusney Castillo, and Chris Denorfia. David DeJesus, a pretty good tweener who feels like a really good fourth outfielder or a competent starting corner guy that is often one of the first names I think of when I think of this type, fell just short of the list. I’m not necessarily comparing Jenco to any of those guys — while some of those guys are great in a corner and stretched in center, Jenco is really good as a CF — so consider this more of an exercise in theoretical player comparisons as we attempt to define the various types of players that teams seem to like these days. As far as comps go, I’ll stick with my Gentry one for now.

Wake Forest

I love [Will] Craig. In past years I might back down some from the love from reasons both fair (positional value, certain scouty quibbles about bat speed and timing) and not (seeing him ignored by all the major media outlets so much that I start to question my own judgment), but I see little way that will be the case with Craig. Sure, he could force my hand by cratering out with a disappointing junior season (a la Ryan Howard back in the day), but that would only shift him from sleeper first round talent to sleeper fifth round value. His is a bat I believe in and I’m willing to ride or die with it.

I wanted to mention the Daniel Murphy comparison I got for JR 2B/OF Nate Mondou that I heard recently, but I couldn’t remember the major media outlet that had it first. I could have missed it elsewhere, but I think mentioning it again would be one of those instances where I plagiarize myself. I hit thirty a few months back and my memory has gone up in flames since. In addition to Murphy, I’ve also heard Todd Walker as a reference point for Mondou’s bat. Lefty bats who love to attack early in the count, provide average or better power, and can hang in at the keystone spot are always going to be valued highly by pro clubs. Or at least they should. The only thing that may knock Mondou down is the competition at the spot; we’ve only just begun, but he’s joined at the top of his own position ranking by the Notre Dame pair (Cavan Biggio and Kyle Fiala) profiled earlier. I’d put him between the two for now with the chance to rise as he keeps mashing. There’s some concern about his overly aggressive approach getting exposed along the way, so I guess consider that a second potential way that Mondou slips some this spring.

2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – Pac-12

18 Apr 2016 6:00 AM / 2 Comments on 2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – Pac-12

The original plan was to go team-by-team for the biggest and baddest conferences around, but the narratives that developed organically when compiling the overall Pac-12 prospect list were too good to ignore. Look at some of the decisions that teams will have to make on just the position player prospects in this conference this year…

Logan Ice OR Colby Woodmansee
Brett Cumberland OR Jeremy Martinez OR Brian Serven
Trever Morrison OR Tommy Edman
David Greer OR Eric Filia
Cody Ramer OR Mitchell Kranson OR Timmy Robinson

And then on the pitching side we start with what has to rank among the most fascinating trios of arms in any conference in college ball: Daulton Jefferies and Cal Quantrill and Matt Krook. All three guys have legitimate arguments for the top spot. It’s not a bad year for amateur baseball fans who have smartly opted to settle in the western part of the country. We’ll get back to those three co-headliners shortly (those more interested in the pitchers can skip to the bolded parenthetical below), but first let’s get into the hitters.

.365/.460/.533 – 22 BB/5 K
.360/.483/.697 – 20 BB/5 K

Top is Matt Thaiss this year, bottom is Logan Ice so far. It’s no wonder that a friend of mine regularly refers to Ice as “Pacific NW Thaiss.” That sounds so made up, but it’s not. Anyway, Ice is a really good prospect. He’s received some national acclaim this season, yet still strikes me as one of the draft’s most underrated college bats. There are no questions about his defense behind the plate – coming into the year many considered him to be a catch-and-throw prospect with a bat that might relegate him to backup work – and his power, while maybe not .700 SLG real, is real. I don’t think a late-first round selection is unrealistic, but I’ll hedge and call him a potential huge value pick at any point after the draft’s first day. I can’t wait to start stacking the college catching board; my hunch is that prospect who comes in tenth or so would be a top three player in most classes. My only concern for Ice – a stretch, admittedly – is that teams will put off drafting college catchers early because of the belief that they can wait and still get a good one later.

Those who prefer Colby Woodmansee to Ice as the Pac-12’s best position player prospect have an equally strong case. Like Ice, Woodmansee is a near-lock to remain at a premium defensive position in the pros with enough offensive upside to profile as a potential impact player at maturation. Early on the process there were some who questioned Woodmansee’s long-term defensive outlook – shortstops who are 6-3, 200 pounds tend to unfairly get mentally moved off the position to third, a weird bit of biased thinking that I’ve been guilty of in the past – but his arm strength, hands, and first-step quickness all should allow him to remain at his college spot for the foreseeable future. Offensively there may not be one particular thing he does great, but what he does well is more than enough. Woodmansee has average to above-average raw power and speed, lots of bat speed and athleticism, and solid plate discipline. For the exact opposite reason why I think Ice and others like him might slip some on draft day, the all-around average to above-average skill set of Woodmansee at shortstop, a position as shallow as any in this draft, should help him go off the board earlier than most might think.

The trio of catchers after Ice all offer something a little bit different; for that reason, I could see them ending up in any order on any random team’s draft board. Brett Cumberland primary claim to fame is and will be his bat. His hit tool is legit and his power is really appealing. He’s also been described to me as a guy who can be pitched to while also being the kind of smart, naturally gifted hitter who can then make adjustments on the fly. His glove is more “good enough” than good, but there’s enough there that you can work with him to make it work. Jeremy Martinez is another catcher who has been described to me as “good enough” defensively, but that’s an opinion my admittedly non-scout eyes don’t see. I wrote about him briefly last month…

I’ve long thought that Jeremy Martinez has been underrated as a college player, so I’m happy to get a few sentences off about how much I like him here. Martinez was born to catch with a reliable glove and accurate arm. His offensive game is equally well-rounded with the chance for an average hit tool and average raw power to go along with his standout approach. His ceiling may not be high enough for all teams to fall in love, but he’s as good a bet as any of the college catchers in this class to have a long big league career in some capacity or another.

Martinez might not be the most exciting catcher in this class, but he’s at or near the top in terms of well-roundedness for me. It’s an imperfect comp to be sure, but he reminds me some of a less athletic version of James McCann coming out of Arkansas. While some scouts disagree about the defensive utility of Cumberland and Martinez, there are no such rumblings about the glove and arm of Brian Serven. Blessed with an arm both strong and accurate, Serven’s strong hands and plus mobility behind the plate make him a defensive weapon. Whether or not he’ll keep hitting enough to play regularly remains an open question for me – all I have on him offensively are his numbers and that he’s got average or better raw power – but the present defensive value is enough to last a long time in pro ball.

Choosing between Trever Morrison or Tommy Edman might seem easy at first, but the two Pac-12 middle infield standouts are closer in value for me than one might expect. I like Morrison’s glove at short a lot and his physical gifts (above-average arm and speed) are impressive. I’m less sure about him hitting enough to profile as a regular than most. Edman’s bat is more my speed thanks to his strong hit tool, good understanding of the strike zone, and ability to make consistent contact even when down in the count. I’ve given in to those who have long tried to convince me he’s more second baseman than shortstop, but there’s still a part of me who thinks he’s good enough to play short. For a guy with realistic ceiling of big league utility man, I can more than live with that kind of defensive future. If I really stuck to my guns here then you’d see Edman over Morrison, but for now I’ll defer to the overwhelming consensus of smarter people out there who let me know (nicely, mostly) that I was nuts for considering it. I guess the big takeaway here for me is that either player would be great value at any point after the first five rounds.

I’ve lumped David Greer and Eric Filia together because both guys can really, really hit. I think both guys can work themselves up the minor league ladder based on the strength of their hit tool (plate discipline included) alone. Defensive questions for each hitter put a cap on their respective ceilings (Greer intrigues me defensively with his plus arm and experience at 1B, 2B, 3B, and in the OF; Filia seems like left field or first base all the way), but, man, can they both hit.

The last group is probably the weirdest: we have a utility guy finally hitting after three lackluster offensive seasons, a college baseball folk hero with a fascinating defensive profile, and a powerful, tooled-up outfielder who has made slow yet steady improvements over the years. Cody Ramer is an athletic second baseman/shortstop/third baseman/outfielder with average speed and some pop having a major offensive breakout in his final season in the desert. Mitchell Kranson impressed me as the rare college catcher capable of calling his own game; now that he’s been moved to third base, I don’t know what to make of his long-term defensive prospects. His high-contact approach still intrigues me, however. Timmy Robinson‘s tools are really impressive: above-average to plus raw power, average to above-average speed, above-average to plus arm, above-average to plus range, and all kinds of physical strength. That player sounds incredible, so it should be noted that getting all of his raw ability going at the same time and translating it to usable on-field skills has been a challenge. He’s gotten a little bit better every season and now looks to be one of the draft’s most intriguing senior-signs.

There are a ton of players uncovered above that deserve more space than they’ll wind up getting here between now and June. Aaron Knapp fascinates me as an athlete with easy center field range and impact speed, but with such little power that the profile might wind up shorting before he even gets a real chance in pro ball. Mark Karaviotis would have been much higher on this list coming into the year, but a lost junior season puts his stock in limbo. Corey Dempster is one of the many Pac-12 hitters with limited track records prior to 2016 that have come alive this season. His power/speed combination and ability to man center make him intriguing. Then there’s Darrell Miller, the UCLA catcher who would have added to the already stacked group of catchers in the conference if he would have stayed healthy. Even after missing this season with a labrum injury, it still might be worth it for area guys to gauge his interest in leaving college behind for the pros. Those four are just a small taste of the depth of the conference in 2016: there are dozens of other names outside of the top ten or so that deserve draft consideration. Fun year.

(Here is the stuff on Jefferies, Quantrill, and Krook mentioned in the introduction)

Jefferies, Quantrill, and Krook in some order. That’s the limit of what I know for sure about the top of the Pac-12 pitching prospect pile. I’m not sure you could come up with an order that I’d disagree with.

Jefferies is a rock-solid future big league starting pitcher. I love Daulton Jefferies. An overly enthusiastic but well-meaning friend comped Jefferies to Chris Archer after seeing him this past summer. That’s…rich. It’s not entirely crazy, though. Velocity-wise, at his best, Jefferies can sit 90-94 and touch 97. He’s been more frequently in the 88-92 band this spring (94 peak). He’s also focused far more on his low- to mid-80s slider than his mid- to upper-70s curve. I thought both had the potential to be above-average breaking balls at the big league level, but I can’t blame him for going all-in on his potentially devastating slider. Then there’s the compact, athletic delivery and plus fastball command and above-average mid-80s change-up that flashes plus and…well, you can see why he’d get such a lofty comp. Lack of size or not, Jefferies has the kind of stuff that could make him a number two starter if everything goes his way developmentally. That’s big time. High ceiling + high floor = premium pitching prospect. I think Jefferies draft floor is where Walker Buehler, a player that D1 Baseball comped to him earlier this year, landed last year. That would be pick 24 in the first round for those of you who haven’t committed Walker Buehler’s draft position to memory yet. A case could be made (and it kind of has above, right?) that slipping any further than that would be ridiculous value for his new pro team. I think he’s worth considering in the top ten depending on how the rest of the board shakes out.

On talent alone, Cal Quantrill deserves to be right there with Jefferies as a potential top ten overall pick contender. Last year’s Tommy John surgery and the subsequent lost time in 2016, however, complicate the matter, though it’s hard to say how much. Quantrill’s 77-81 MPH change-up is one of my favorite pitches in this entire class. Easy velocity (89-95, 96 peak), a pair of interesting breaking balls, all kinds of pitchability, and that change-up…what more could you want? Good health, I suppose. A few late season starts would go a very long way in easing the minds of big league scouting directors charged with making the decision whether or not to cut a multi-million dollar check (or cheque in the case of the Canadian born Quantrill) to the Stanford righthander. I recently wondered aloud about how teams will perceive Quantrill in this his draft year…

The attrition at the top of the college pitching pile has left Cal Quantrill, yet to pitch in 2016 as he recovers from last year’s Tommy John surgery, one of the college game’s most intriguing mound prospects. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, right? I wonder if the star student out of Stanford knew this and staged the whole elbow injury to allow time for his competition to implode all over the place. That’s a joke. Not a good one, but a joke all the same.

I also have said on the record that I’d consider taking him sight unseen (in 2016) with a pick just outside the draft’s top ten. You might say I’m bullish on Quantrill’s pro prospects.

And then there’s Matt Krook! I had him second only to Alec Hansen (whoops) in my overall college pitching rankings before the season and now he’s third in his own conference. You could look at that as me being wishy-washy (not really, but maybe), me not knowing what I was doing in the first place (always a possibility), or this year’s draft class being more talented than some would like you to believe (yes). Whatever the case may be, Krook remains a legitimate first round arm with as much upside as any college pitcher throwing. Here was the pre-season take that accompanied the aforementioned ranking…

This may be a touch more speculative that some of the other names on the list since Krook missed the 2015 season after Tommy John surgery, but I’m buying all the Krook shares I can right now. He came back and impressed on the Cape enough to warrant consideration as a potential 1-1 riser. There’s no squaring up his fastball and there’s more than enough offspeed (CB and CU) to miss bats (12 K/9 in 45 freshman innings). He’s not as physical as AJ Puk, but the more advanced secondaries give him the edge for now.

I stand by that today. His fastball velocity isn’t all the way back yet (more of a steady 88-92 than 90-94), but he still gets incredible movement on the pitch. His curve has morphed into something more like a slider (or something in-between), but remains a true plus offering. Both his command and his control remain works in progress as he pitches himself back into competitive shape. Picking Krook as early as I’d recommend would take a bit of a leap of faith in his command/control woes being remedied largely by the increased passage of time separating him from his surgery. Going Krook would not be for the faint of heart, but, hey, nothing venture nothing gained, right?

There’s a steep decline after those top three names, but worry not as there are still quality arms to be had scattered across the rest of the conference. Krook’s teammate with the Ducks, Cole Irvin, has seen his stuff rebound this year close to his own pre-TJ surgery levels. I was off Irvin early last season when he was more upper-80s with a loopy curve, but he is now capable of getting it back up to 92 (still sits 85-90) with a sharper upper-70s slider that complements his firmer than before curve and consistently excellent 78-81 change. It’s back of the rotation type starter stuff if it continues to come back. Ian Hamilton could have similar upside (or better) if you’re the type who believes in him as a starter at the next level. He’s got the offspeed stuff (above-average 80-86 SL that flashes plus and an average 80-84 CU) to go through a lineup multiple times. He’s also highly athletic. Those are the points in his favor if you like him as a starter. I’m willing to be talked into it, but the way his fastball plays up in short bursts (consistently 92-96, up to 99) as opposed to the 90-93 he sits as a starter has me still liking him more as a fireman out of the pen.

If it’s a true college reliever you want, then Stephen Nogosek out of Oregon is your best bet. He’s a little bit like Hamilton in that he’s got the raw stuff to start – an honest four-pitch mix seems wasted some in relief – but his command would make longer outings untenable at this time. As a reliever, however, he’s effectively wild. Pitching out of the pen also puts him on the short list of fastest potential movers. Chris Viall seems like another reliever all the way. With lots of heat (up to 96-97) and intimidating size (6-9, 230 pounds), he could be a good one.

A pair of seniors that have intrigued me for years have put it all together in their last year of eligibility. Kyle Davis, a prospect I once thought would wind up better as a catcher than as a pitcher, has compiled strong numbers since almost his first day on campus. As I’ve said a lot in the preceding paragraphs, a big point in his favor is that he has the requisite three to four pitches needed to start. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll continue to hold down a rotation spot in the pros, but it gives him a shot. Fellow senior Ryan Mason’s scouting dossier has always looked better than his peripherals: upper-80s heat (92 peak) with plus sink, a deceptive delivery, and lots of extension thanks to a 6-6, 215 pound frame should have resulted in better than a 3.69 K/9 last season. Of course, the ugliness of his peripherals was overshadowed by his consistently strong run prevention skills (2.97 ERA last season). It’s a really weird profile, but everything seems to have caught up this year: stuff, peripherals, and run prevention all are where you’d want them to be. I remain intrigued.

I forgot I had started going team-by-team before I went to my usual overarching view of the conference. Here’s what I had on Bobby Dalbec of Arizona…

Bobby Dalbec continues to confound. More and more people I’ve spoken to are becoming open to the idea of sending him out as a pitcher in pro ball. As frustrating as he can be at the plate, I don’t think I could throw his kind of power away that easily, even if only on a temporary basis. I also don’t think I’d touch him in the first five rounds. The comparison shared with me before the season to Chris Dominguez feels more and more prescient by the day.

I had Dominguez ranked 41st on my final board back in 2009 before he was drafted 86th overall by the Giants. I’m not sure what it says (if anything) about my own evolving view on prospecting or how the industry itself has changed or how the game has shifted, but I can say with 100% certainty that Dalbec won’t rank anywhere close to where Dominguez once landed on my personal ranks. I can also say with about 95% certainty that he won’t be drafted as high as Dominguez was in 2009. Of course, a player’s draft ranking ultimately is not about where he falls on the average of all teams’ boards but rather where he eventually falls on the board of the one team that drafts him. That’s where that 5% uncertainty comes in: all it takes is one team to look at Dalbec’s two clear plus tools (raw power, arm strength) and believe they can tweak his swing to make enough contact to allow his natural ability to shine through. His upside is very real, as is the possibility he tops out as an all-or-nothing AA power hitter. I’m out on him for now, but I understand the appeal. Chicks dig the long ball.

Then I started very briefly in on Arizona State…

David Greer is one of college baseball’s best, most underrated hitters. I’d put his hit tool on the short list of best in this college class. With that much confidence in him offensively, the only real question that needs to be answered is what position he’ll play as a pro. Right now it appears that a corner outfield spot is the most likely destination, but his prior experience at both second and third will no doubt intrigue teams willing to trade a little defense for some offense at those spots.

RJ Ybarra has had a good year, a bad year, a good year, and is now in the midst of another bad year. By that logic, teams should be hot to draft him so that he has a big full season debut in 2017, right?

And then I gave up on the team-by-team approach and went back to the usual way and here we are.

Hitters

Oregon State JR C Logan Ice
Arizona State JR SS/2B Colby Woodmansee
California SO C Brett Cumberland
USC JR C/1B Jeremy Martinez
Oregon State JR SS Trever Morrison
Stanford JR 2B/SS Tommy Edman
Arizona JR 3B/RHP Bobby Dalbec
Arizona State JR C Brian Serven
Arizona State JR OF/1B David Greer
UCLA rSR OF Eric Filia
Arizona SR 2B/SS Cody Ramer
California SR 3B/C Mitchell Kranson
UCLA JR OF/2B Luke Persico
USC SR OF Timmy Robinson
Oregon JR OF Austin Grebeck
California JR OF Aaron Knapp
Oregon JR SS/2B Mark Karaviotis
Utah SR SS/2B Cody Scaggari
Arizona SR OF Zach Gibbons
USC JR OF Corey Dempster
USC SR OF David Oppenheim
UCLA rJR C Darrell Miller
Arizona SR 1B/OF Ryan Aguilar
Arizona SR OF Justin Behnke
UCLA JR OF Brett Stephens
California SR OF Devin Pearson
Stanford JR OF Jackson Klein
Oregon SR 1B/OF Phillipe Craig-St. Louis
Oregon rSO OF/1B AJ Balta
Oregon SR 3B/SS Matt Eureste
Oregon JR OF Nick Catalano
Oregon State JR 3B Caleb Hamilton
USC rJR SS Reggie Southall
UCLA JR OF Kort Peterson
Utah SR 1B Kellen Marruffo
Stanford SR 1B/C Austin Barr
California SR OF/1B Nick Halamandaris
USC SR OF/1B AJ Ramirez
USC rSO 2B/SS Frankie Rios
Oregon State JR OF Kyle Nobach
Oregon State JR 1B/OF Billy King
UCLA rSR OF Christoph Bono
Utah rJR 3B Dallas Carroll
Washington JR OF Jack Meggs
Washington JR 1B Gage Matuszak
Washington State JR OF Cameron Frost
California rSR 1B Brenden Farney
UCLA SR 2B Trent Chatterdon
Washington JR SS Chris Baker
Arizona State SR C RJ Ybarra
California JR 2B/OF Robbie Tenerowicz
Arizona JR SS Louis Boyd
California rSR OF Brian Celsi
Utah SR 2B Kody Davis
Utah SR C AJ Young
Washington JR OF MJ Hubbs
Stanford SR OF Jonny Locher
Washington JR OF Josh Cushing
Utah JR OF Josh Rose
Utah JR SS Ellis Kelly

Pitchers

California JR RHP Daulton Jefferies
Stanford JR RHP Cal Quantrill
Oregon rSO LHP Matt Krook
Oregon rJR LHP Cole Irvin
Washington State JR RHP Ian Hamilton
Oregon JR RHP Stephen Nogosek
Stanford JR RHP Chris Viall
USC SR RHP Kyle Davis
Arizona State JR RHP Hever Bueno
California SR RHP Ryan Mason
Arizona State JR RHP Seth Martinez
USC JR RHP/3B Jeff Paschke
USC JR LHP Bernardo Flores
UCLA JR RHP Grant Dyer
Stanford JR RHP Tyler Thorne
UCLA rJR RHP Tucker Forbes
USC SR RHP Brooks Kriske
Arizona State JR RHP Eder Erives
Oregon State JR RHP Jake Thompson
Oregon State SR RHP Travis Eckert
Arizona SR LHP Cody Moffett
USC rJR RHP Joe Navilhon
Arizona SR RHP Nathan Bannister
Washington SR RHP Troy Rallings
Arizona JR RHP Austin Schnabel
Washington SR RHP Spencer Jones
Oregon State JR RHP John Pomeroy
UCLA rJR RHP Nick Kern
Oregon State rJR LHP Max Engelbrekt
Stanford SR RHP Daniel Starwalt
California JR RHP Alex Schick
USC SR RHP Brent Wheatley
Washington JR RHP Westin Wuethrich
USC SR LHP Marc Huberman
Washington SR RHP Alex Nesbitt
California JR RHP Trevin Haseltine
Stanford JR RHP/3B Brett Hanewich
USC JR LHP/OF Andrew Wright
Utah SR RHP Dalton Carroll
Washington SR LHP Will Ballowe
Arizona State SR RHP Eric Melbostad
Arizona rSO LHP Rio Gomez
Washington SR RHP Ryan Schmitten
Utah JR LHP Dylan Drachler
UCLA JR RHP Moises Ceja
UCLA JR RHP Scott Burke
Washington JR LHP Henry Baker
UCLA rJR LHP Hunter Virant
Arizona rSO RHP Robby Medel
Arizona JR RHP Kevin Ginkel
UCLA rJR RHP Chase Radan
Stanford JR LHP Chris Castellanos
Utah SR RHP Nolan Stouder
Arizona JR LHP JC Cloney
Oregon JR RHP Cooper Stiles
Arizona State SR RHP/2B Jordan Aboites

Arizona

rSO LHP Rio Gomez (2016)
SR RHP Nathan Bannister (2016)
SR LHP Cody Moffett (2016)
JR RHP Austin Schnabel (2016)
rSO RHP Robby Medel (2016)
JR RHP Kevin Ginkel (2016)
JR LHP JC Cloney (2016)
JR 3B/RHP Bobby Dalbec (2016)
SR OF Zach Gibbons (2016)
SR OF Justin Behnke (2016)
SR 2B/SS Cody Ramer (2016)
SR 1B/OF Ryan Aguilar (2016)
JR SS Louis Boyd (2016)
JR 1B Michael Hoard (2016)
SO RHP Matt Hartman (2017)
SO LHP Cameron Ming (2017)
SO OF Jared Oliva (2017)
SO 1B/OF JJ Matijevic (2017)
SO C Ryan Haug (2017)
FR RHP Austin Rubick (2018)
FR RHP Cody Deason (2018)
FR RHP Michael Flynn (2018)
FR LHP/OF Randy Labaut (2018)
FR OF Alfonso Rivas (2018)
FR C Cesar Salazar (2018)

High Priority Follows: Rio Gomez, Nathan Bannister, Cody Moffett, Austin Schnabel, Robby Medel, Kevin Ginkel, JC Cloney, Bobby Dalbec, Zach Gibbons, Justin Behnke, Cody Ramer, Ryan Aguilar, Louis Boyd, Michael Hoard

Arizona State

JR RHP Hever Bueno (2016)
JR RHP Seth Martinez (2016)
JR RHP Eder Erives (2016)
SR RHP Eric Melbostad (2016)
SR RHP/2B Jordan Aboites (2016)
JR SS/2B Colby Woodmansee (2016)
JR OF/1B David Greer (2016)
SR C RJ Ybarra (2016)
JR C Brian Serven (2016)
SR OF/1B Chris Beall (2016)
JR OF Daniel Williams (2016)
JR C Zach Cerbo (2016)
SO RHP Ryan Hingst (2017)
SO LHP Tucker Baca (2017)
SO LHP/OF Andrew Shaps (2017)
SO LHP Reagan Todd (2017)
SO RHP Grant Schneider (2017)
SO LHP Eli Lingos (2017)
SO OF Coltin Gerhart (2017)
SO SS/3B Ryan Lillard (2017)
SO OF/1B Sebastian Zawada (2017)
SO 2B Andrew Snow (2017)
FR RHP Giovanni Lopez (2018)
FR RHP Garvin Alston (2018)
FR RHP Fitz Stadler (2018)
FR RHP Liam Jenkins (2018)
FR LHP Connor Higgins (2018)
FR LHP Zach Dixon (2018)
FR OF Tyler Williams (2018)
FR OF Gage Canning (2018)

High Priority Follows: Hever Bueno, Seth Martinez, Eder Erives, Eric Melbostad, Jordan Aboites, Colby Woodmansee, David Greer, RJ Ybarra, Brian Serven, Daniel Williams, Zach Cerbo

California

JR RHP Daulton Jefferies (2016)
JR RHP Alex Schick (2016)
SR RHP Ryan Mason (2016)
rJR RHP Jordan Talbot (2016)
JR RHP Trevin Haseltine (2016)
rSR RHP Keaton Siomkin (2016)
SR RHP/C Jesse Kay (2016)
JR OF Aaron Knapp (2016)
JR 2B/OF Robbie Tenerowicz (2016)
SR 3B/C Mitchell Kranson (2016)
rSR OF Brian Celsi (2016)
SR OF Devin Pearson (2016)
SR OF/1B Nick Halamandaris (2016)
SO C Brett Cumberland (2016)
rSR 1B Brenden Farney (2016)
SO RHP Jeff Bain (2017)
SO LHP Matt Ladrech (2017)
SO RHP Erik Martinez (2017)
SO SS Preston Grand Pre (2017)
SO 3B Denis Karas (2017)
FR RHP/OF Tanner Dodson (2018)
FR RHP Jake Matulovich (2018)
FR RHP Aaron Shortridge (2018)
FR RHP Connor Jackson (2018)
FR 2B/SS Ripken Reyes (2018)
FR OF Lorenzo Hampton (2018)
FR OF Jeffrey Mitchell (2018)
FR OF Jonah Davis (2018)
FR C Tyrus Greene (2018)
FR OF Cole Lemmel (2018)

High Priority Follows: Daulton Jefferies, Alex Schick, Ryan Mason, Trevin Haseltine, Aaron Knapp, Robbie Tenerowicz, Mitchell Kranson, Brian Celsi, Devin Pearson, Nick Halamandaris, Brett Cumberland, Brenden Farney

Oregon

rJR LHP Cole Irvin (2016)
rSO LHP Matt Krook (2016)
JR RHP Stephen Nogosek (2016)
JR RHP Cooper Stiles (2016)
JR OF Austin Grebeck (2016)
JR OF Nick Catalano (2016):
JR SS/2B Mark Karaviotis (2016)
rSO OF/1B AJ Balta (2016)
SR 1B/OF Phillipe Craig-St. Louis (2016)
SR 3B/SS Matt Eureste (2016)
SO LHP David Peterson (2017)
SO RHP Brac Warren (2017)
SO C Tim Susnara (2017)
SO OF Jakob Goldfarb (2017)
SO SS/2B Daniel Patzlaff (2017)
rFR C/OF Slade Heggen (2017)
rFR SS Carson Breshears (2017)
SO INF Kyle Kasser (2017)
FR RHP Isaiah Carranza (2018)
FR RHP Cody Deason (2018)
FR RHP Jacob Bennett (2018)
FR RHP/C Parker Kelly (2018)
FR RHP/INF Matt Mercer (2018)
FR SS/2B Travis Moniot (2018)
FR 3B Matt Kroon (2018)

High Priority Follows: Cole Irvin, Matt Krook, Stephen Nogosek, Cooper Stiles, Austin Grebeck, Nick Catalano, Mark Karaviotis, AJ Balta, Phillipe Craig-St. Louis, Matt Eureste

Oregon State

SR RHP Travis Eckert (2016)
JR RHP John Pomeroy (2016)
rJR LHP Max Engelbrekt (2016)
JR RHP Jake Thompson (2016)
JR SS Trever Morrison (2016)
JR C Logan Ice (2016)
JR 3B Caleb Hamilton (2016)
JR OF Kyle Nobach (2016)
JR 1B/OF Billy King (2016)
SO RHP Drew Rasmussen (2017)
SO RHP Mitch Hickey (2017)
SO RHP Luke Heimlich (2017)
rFR LHP Christian Martinek (2017)
SO LHP Ryan Mets (2017
SO 1B/C KJ Harrison (2017)
SO 2B/SS Christian Donahue (2017)
SO OF Elliott Cary (2017)
SO 3B/SS Joe Gillette (2017)
SO SS Michael Gretler (2017)
FR LHP Eric Parnow (2018)
FR LHP Jordan Britton (2018)
FR SS Cadyn Grenier (2018)
FR SS Nick Madrigal (2018)
FR OF Steven Kwan (2018)
FR OF Trevor Larnach (2018)
FR 3B Bryce Fehmel (2018)
FR C Alex O’Rourke (2018)

High Priority Follows: Travis Eckert, John Pomeroy, Max Engelbrekt, Jake Thompson, Trever Morrison, Logan Ice, Caleb Hamilton, Billy King

USC

SR RHP Brent Wheatley (2016)
SR LHP Marc Huberman (2016)
SR RHP Brooks Kriske (2016
JR LHP Bernardo Flores (2016)
rJR RHP Joe Navilhon (2016)
SR RHP Kyle Davis (2016)
JR LHP/OF Andrew Wright (2016)
JR RHP/3B Jeff Paschke (2016)
JR C/1B Jeremy Martinez (2016)
SR OF Timmy Robinson (2016)
rJR SS Reggie Southall (2016)
SR OF David Oppenheim (2016)
SR OF/1B AJ Ramirez (2016)
JR OF Corey Dempster (2016)
rSO 2B/SS Frankie Rios (2016)
JR C AJ Fritts (2016)
SO RHP Mitch Hart (2017)
SO RHP Brad Wegman (2017)
rFR RHP Bryce Dyrda (2017)
SO RHP Mason Perryman (2017)
SO 3B/SS Adalberto Carrillo (2017)
SO SS Angelo Armenta (2017)
SO INF Stephen Dubb (2017)
FR RHP Marrick Crouse (2018)
FR RHP Soloman Bates (2018)
FR LHP Quentin Longrie (2018)
FR 1B Dillon Paulson (2018)
FR INF Lars Nootbaar (2018)
FR C/RHP Cameron Stubbs (2018)

High Priority Follows: Brent Wheatley, Marc Huberman, Brooks Kriske, Bernardo Flores, Joe Navilhon, Kyle Davis, Andrew Wright, Jeff Paschke, Jeremy Martinez, Timmy Robinson, Reggie Southall, David Oppenheim, AJ Ramirez, Corey Dempster, Frankie Rios

Stanford

JR RHP Cal Quantrill (2016)
JR RHP Chris Viall (2016)
SR RHP Daniel Starwalt (2016)
JR RHP Tyler Thorne (2016)
JR LHP Chris Castellanos (2016)
rSR LHP John Hochstatter (2016)
JR RHP/3B Brett Hanewich (2016)
SR OF Jonny Locher (2016)
SR SS Bobby Zarubin (2016)
JR OF Jackson Klein (2016)
JR 2B/SS Tommy Edman (2016)
SR 1B/C Austin Barr (2016)
JR C Alex Dunlap (2016)
FR RHP Tristan Beck (2017)
SO RHP Keith Weisenberg (2017)
SO RHP Colton Hock (2017)
SO LHP Andrew Summerville (2017)
SO LHP John Henry Styles (2017)
SO LHP/OF Quinn Brodey (2017)
SO C Bryce Carter (2017)
SO SS/2B Beau Branton (2017)
SO 3B Mikey Diekroeger (2017)
SO SS Jesse Kuet (2017)
SO OF/1B Matt Winaker (2017)
FR LHP Kris Bubic (2018)
FR RHP Ben Baggett (2018)
FR SS Nico Hoerner (2018)
FR OF Brandon Wulff (2018)
FR OF/1B Nickolas Oar (2018)
FR OF Alec Wilson (2018)
FR SS Peter McEvoy (2018)
FR SS Duke Kinamon (2018)
FR 3B Nick Bellafronto (2018)

High Priority Follows: Cal Quantrill, Chris Viall, Daniel Starwalt, Tyler Thorne, Chris Castellanos, John Hochstatter, Brett Hanewich, Jonny Locher, Jackson Klein, Tommy Edman, Austin Barr, Alex Dunlap

UCLA

JR RHP Grant Dyer (2016)
rJR RHP Tucker Forbes (2016)
rJR LHP Hunter Virant (2016)
rJR RHP Nick Kern (2016)
rJR RHP Chase Radan (2016)
JR RHP Scott Burke (2016)
JR RHP Moises Ceja (2016)
JR OF/2B Luke Persico (2016)
rSR OF Eric Filia (2016)
JR OF Kort Peterson (2016)
rSR OF Christoph Bono (2016)
JR OF Brett Stephens (2016)
rJR C Darrell Miller (2016)
SR 2B Trent Chatterdon (2016)
SR 2B/OF Brett Urabe (2016)
SO RHP Griffin Canning (2017)
SO RHP Matt Trask (2017)
SO RHP Jake Bird (2017)
rFR RHP Nathan Hadley (2017)
rFR LHP Garrett Barker (2017)
rFR 1B Zander Clarke (2017)
rFR SS Scott Jarvis (2017)
SO SS/2B Nick Valaika (2017)
SO 3B/1B Sean Bouchard (2017)
FR RHP Kyle Molnar (2018)
FR LHP Justin Hooper (2018)
FR RHP Brian Gadsby (2018)
FR RHP Jonathan Olsen (2018)
FR RHP Jack Ralston (2018)
FR OF Daniel Amaral (2018)
FR INF Dayton Provost (2018)
FR 1B Jake Pries (2018)
FR OF Jordan Myrow (2018)
FR C Jake Hirabayshi (2018)

High Priority Follows: Grant Dyer, Tucker Forbes, Hunter Virant, Nick Kern, Chase Radan, Scott Burke, Moises Ceja, Luke Persico, Eric Filia, Kort Peterson, Christoph Bono, Brett Stephens, Darrell Miller, Trent Chatterdon, Brett Urabe

Washington

SR LHP Will Ballowe (2016)
JR RHP Westin Wuethrich (2016)
SR RHP Ryan Schmitten (2016)
SR RHP Alex Nesbitt (2016)
SR RHP Troy Rallings (2016)
SR RHP Spencer Jones (2016)
JR LHP Henry Baker (2016)
JR OF Jack Meggs (2016)
JR 1B Gage Matuszak (2016)
JR OF MJ Hubbs (2016)
JR OF Josh Cushing (2016)
JR SS Chris Baker (2016)
SO RHP Noah Bremer (2017)
SO 3B Nyles Nygaard (2017)
SO C Joey Morgan (2017)
FR RHP Joe DeMers (2018)
FR SS/2B AJ Graffanino (2018)
FR C Willie MacIver (2018):
FR OF Rex Stephan (2018)
FR 3B/OF Peyton Lacoste (2018)
FR 2B Dallas Tessar (2018)
FR 2B/OF Karl Kani (2018)

High Priority Follows: Will Ballowe, Westin Wuethrich, Ryan Schmitten, Alex Nesbitt, Troy Rallings, Spencer Jones, Henry Baker, Jack Meggs, Gage Matuszak, MJ Hubbs, Josh Cushing, Chris Baker

Washington State

JR RHP Ian Hamilton (2016)
JR LHP Layne Bruner (2016)
JR OF Cameron Frost (2016)
rJR 2B Shea Donlin (2016)
rJR OF Trek Stemp (2016)
SO RHP Ryan Walker (2017)
SO LHP Scotty Sunitsch (2017)
SO RHP Colby Nealy (2017)
rFR RHP Nick Leonard (2017)
SO INF Shane Matheny (2017)
SO OF Derek Chapman (2017)
SO C/OF JJ Hancock (2017)
FR RHP Parker McFadden (2018)
FR RHP Ryan Ward (2018)
FR SS Justin Harrer (2018)

High Priority Follows: Ian Hamilton, Cameron Frost, Trek Stemp

Utah

SR RHP Dalton Carroll (2016)
rJR LHP Hunter Rodriguez (2016)
SR RHP Nolan Stouder (2016)
JR LHP Dylan Drachler (2016)
SR C AJ Young (2016)
JR SS Ellis Kelly (2016)
SR SS/2B Cody Scaggari (2016)
rJR 3B Dallas Carroll (2016)
SR 2B Kody Davis (2016)
SR OF Wyler Smith (2016)
SR 1B Kellen Marruffo (2016)
JR OF Josh Rose (2016)
JR C Max Schuman (2016)
SO LHP Josh Lapiana (2017)
SO RHP Tanner Thomas (2017)
SO RHP Andre Jackson (2017)
SO RHP/OF Jayson Rose (2017)
FR RHP Riley Ottesen (2018)
FR OF DaShawn Keirsey (2018)
FR C Zach Moeller (2018)

High Priority Follows: Dalton Carroll, Hunter Rodriguez, Nolan Stouder, Dylan Drachler, AJ Young, Ellis Kelly, Cody Scaggari, Dallas Carroll, Kody Davis, Wyler Smith, Kellen Marruffo, Josh Rose, Max Schurman

2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – Big 12

12 Apr 2016 8:00 AM / 1 Comment on 2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – Big 12

On Sheldon Neuse before the season…

Neuse could still fulfill the promise many (myself included) saw in him during his excellent freshman season back when he looked like a potential Gold Glove defender at third with the kind of bat you’d happily stick in the middle of the order. He could also get more of a look this spring on the mound where he can properly put his mid-90s heat and promising pair of secondary offerings (SL, CU) to use. Or he could have something of a repeat of his 2015 season leaving us unsure how good he really is and thinking of him more of a second to fifth round project (a super talented one, mind you) than a first round prospect.

So far, so good on the whole fulfilling that promise thing: Neuse has hit .383/.483/.692 through 32 games with 23 BB/26 and 8/9 SB. On the mound, he’s been just as good: 16 K in 16.2 IP of 1.62 ERA ball. He’s now firmly back on the first round bubble and one of this draft’s quintessential first round talents that might get squeezed out of the top thirty or so picks because of the impressive depth at the top of this class.

There are plenty of candidates to wind up as the second highest drafted position player from the Big 12 come June. Ryan Sluder seemed primed to turn a big corner in his draft year, but it hasn’t happened for him. He still has a classic right fielder tool set – legit plus raw power, above-average to plus arm strength, a potent speed/strength blend – but his overly aggressive approach, which for all the world looked to be improving last season, holds him back. Then there’s his teammate with the Cowboys, Donnie Walton. Walton is pretty much exactly what you’d expect out of the son of a coach: there’s nothing flashy to his game, but he ably fields his position, runs well, and can make just about all the throws from short. It might be a utility player profile more so than a future regular ceiling, but it’s relatively safe and well worth a top ten round pick.

A pair of catchers could also wind up at or near the top of the Big 12 hitter rankings by the end of the season. I really, really like Michael Tinsley, a highly athletic lefthanded bat with impressive wheels and solid pop. Tres Barrera’s ordinary start – his approach has taken a big step back – knocks him down from his clear perch in the two spot to closer to the middle of the pack. Despite seeing some time at third base this year for the Longhorns, I still like him behind the plate over the long haul. His above-average raw power keeps him in the top ten round mix despite the aforementioned backslide in approach.

Tyler Neslony, the top returning position player prospect in the conference per this very site (he peaked at third CJ Hinojosa and Ben Johnson last year), is hurt by the strong likelihood that he’ll be confined to the corners as a pro. I still like his power and plate discipline combination as a mid- to late-round senior sign. Scouts who saw a lot of him during his awesome sophomore season will likely give him more of the benefit of the doubt than those in the national media who consider going fifty deep with a draft list an exhausting task.

Elliott Barzilli is off to a scorching start. He’s a fine athlete and a versatile defender in the infield. He’s as much of a threat of any of these players to follow Neuse off the board. Cory Raley is another extremely athletic infielder who can play any spot on the diamond. Raley’s start has not been nearly as impressive as Barzilli’s, but his speed and pop are awfully intriguing. When it comes to straight draft intrigue, few players in this class can match Oklahoma outfielder Cody Thomas. With Thomas you’d essentially be drafting a high school player in terms of experience and present skill levels, but the upside is very real. Size, athleticism, power, arm strength, speed…if he can hit, a significant if, then he’s a potential monster.

Jake Scudder, Jack Flansburg, and Ryan Merrill all stand out as players who will see big jumps on the next (and final) version of these rankings. I’m looking forward to learning more about all three.

I love the Big 12 pitchers this year because I’m a guy talking to himself in front of a computer and not one of the thirty scouting directors charged with actually finding an arm from this conference you’d feel confident about taking commensurate with their talent. There’s uncertainty everywhere you turn. Alec Hansen, who remains the best pitching prospect in the conference despite a dreadful first half of the season, exemplifies the boom/bust nature of the Big 12’s pitching. In fact, it even goes beyond boom/bust; the conference is loaded with players with huge stuff but limited track records and little to no extended periods of success.

Mitchell Traver has yet to pitch in 2016. Garrett Williams has barely pitched. Same for Chandler Eden. Jake Elliott and Ryan Moseley have both drastically underperformed. You could argue that my rankings are nonsense – again, these are more about the larger body of work and long-term projection than two months’ worth of 2016 results – but the list from one to six goes bad, injured, injured, good (thank you, Trey Cobb), injured, and bad. All of these players have their merits, of course. Traver is up to 96 with serious sink and a plus low- to mid-80s slider. Williams is a four-pitch lefty with an outstanding curve and one of the more unusually effective hard changeups in the college game. Eden can be effectively wild when actually on the mound. His plus fastball (90-95, 97 peak) and above-average to plus breaking ball (with an average change that could help convince some teams that he’s a starter professionally) are good enough to make hitters very uncomfortable. I had some friends come into the season armed and ready with a Jake Elliott is the better long-term prospect than Alec Hansen take. That talk has quieted down as Elliott’s start has just about equaled Hansen’s…and not in a good way. His arm talent is still really impressive: 86-92 FB (94 peak), average 75-80 breaking ball, and a 77-80 change that borders on plus.

The disappointments at the top of this class have opened the door for a few solid yet unspectacular names to barge through. There’s something to be said for consistently productive pitchers, after all. Daniel Castano is a lefthander with size, some present velocity (87-92), and a pair of offspeed pitches (78-83 CU and 72-76 CB) that could be average or better pitches at the pro level. Thomas Hatch isn’t a lefthander and doesn’t have that size, but he possesses more fastball (88-94, up to 96) and a similarly impressive mix of offspeed stuff (78-82 CU, 77-82 SL, 85-88 cutter). Brian Howard is an impossibly long and lean man (6-9, 185) who pounds the strike zone with a solid fastball (87-92, 94 peak) and cut-slider (anywhere from 81-88, flashes plus when firmer) combination that gets on hitters quick. Morgan Cooper appears to have bounced back nicely from the Tommy John surgery that cost him all of last season. He’s got the frame, command, and requisite three pitches (88-93 FB, low-70s CB that flashes plus, solid CU) to stick in a pro rotation.

Hitters

Oklahoma JR 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse
Kansas JR C Michael Tinsley
Oklahoma State JR OF Ryan Sluder
Oklahoma State SR SS/2B Donnie Walton
Texas JR C/3B Tres Barrera
TCU JR 3B/SS Elliott Barzilli
Texas Tech SR OF Tyler Neslony
Texas Tech rJR SS/2B Cory Raley
Texas Tech JR OF Stephen Smith
Baylor JR OF Darryn Sheppard
Kansas JR OF Joven Afenir
Oklahoma JR OF Cody Thomas
Texas Tech SR 1B Eric Gutierrez
Oklahoma State JR 1B/OF Dustin Williams
Texas rSO SS/3B Bret Boswell
Baylor rJR C Matt Menard
Baylor rSO OF/LHP Kameron Esthay
Kansas State JR 1B Jake Scudder
Oklahoma JR 2B/3B Jack Flansburg
Kansas rJR 1B Marcus Wheeler
TCU JR SS Ryan Merrill
Kansas State SR SS Tyler Wolfe
Kansas State SR C Tyler Moore
Texas JR OF/3B Zane Gurwitz
Kansas SR 2B/SS Colby Wright
TCU SR OF Nolan Brown
Oklahoma SR OF Hunter Haley
Kansas rSR OF Joe Moroney
Oklahoma State rSO 3B Andrew Rosa
Baylor SR 2B/3B West Tunnell
Baylor JR C/1B Aaron Dodson
Texas JR 1B/RHP Kacy Clemens
TCU SR OF Dane Steinhagen
Texas Tech rJR C Kholeton Sanchez
TCU JR 2B Mason Hesse
Oklahoma State SR OF Corey Hassell
Oklahoma JR C Renae Martinez
TCU JR 3B/2B Cam Warner
West Virginia JR 1B/RHP Jackson Cramer
West Virginia rSR OF KC Huth
Texas Tech JR OF Anthony Lyons
Kansas SR 2B/SS Tommy Mirabelli
Kansas State rJR 2B/SS Jake Wodtke
Baylor SR 2B/SS Justin Arrington
Kansas State rJR 3B/C Steve Serratore
Oklahoma State SR 2B Kevin Bradley
Kansas State SR OF Clayton Dalrymple
Texas Tech SR C Tyler Floyd
Kansas rSR OF Steve Goldstein

Pitchers

Oklahoma JR RHP Alec Hansen
TCU rJR RHP Mitchell Traver
Oklahoma State JR LHP Garrett Williams
Oklahoma State JR RHP Trey Cobb
Texas Tech JR RHP Chandler Eden
Oklahoma JR RHP Jake Elliott
Baylor JR LHP Daniel Castano
Oklahoma State JR RHP Thomas Hatch
Texas Tech JR RHP Ryan Moseley
Oklahoma State JR RHP Remey Reed
TCU JR RHP Brian Howard
Texas rSO RHP Morgan Cooper
Oklahoma State JR RHP Tyler Buffett
TCU rSO LHP Ryan Burnett
Baylor JR RHP Drew Tolson
TCU rJR RHP Brian Trieglaff
Oklahoma State rSR RHP/OF Conor Costello
TCU JR RHP Mitch Sewald
TCU JR LHP Rex Hill
Texas Tech JR LHP Ty Damron
Oklahoma State SR RHP Michael Mertz
West Virginia rSO RHP Nick Wernke
West Virginia SR RHP Blake Smith
Oklahoma State JR RHP Blake Battenfield
West Virginia SR RHP Jeff Hardy
Kansas JR RHP Sean Rackoski
West Virginia JR RHP Chad Donato
Texas Tech JR LHP Hayden Howard
Texas SR LHP Ty Culbreth
Texas JR LHP Josh Sawyer
TCU SR RHP Preston Guillory
Kansas State rJR RHP Colton Kalmus
Kansas SR RHP Hayden Edwards
Oklahoma SR RHP Keaton Hernandez
Kansas State SR RHP Levi MaVorhis
Texas Tech SR RHP Dalton Brown
Texas Tech JR LHP Dylan Dusek
Oklahoma State rSO LHP Matt Wilson
Oklahoma JR LHP Austin Kerns
Kansas State JR LHP Jordan Floyd
Oklahoma State SR LHP Alex Hackerott
Kansas rSO RHP Jon Hander
Kansas JR RHP Stephen Villines
West Virginia rSR LHP Ross Vance
Texas JR LHP Jon Malmin
Texas SR LHP Travis Duke
Kansas State SR RHP Corey Fischer
Kansas SR LHP Ben Krauth
Kansas State rSR RHP Lucas Benenati

Baylor

JR LHP Daniel Castano (2016)
JR RHP Drew Tolson (2016)
JR RHP Nick Lewis (2016)
JR RHP Alex Phillips (2016)
rSO OF/LHP Kameron Esthay (2016)
SR 2B/3B West Tunnell (2016)
SR 2B/SS Justin Arrington (2016)
rJR C Matt Menard (2016)
rJR 3B Ben Carl (2016)
JR OF Darryn Sheppard (2016)
JR C/1B Aaron Dodson (2016)
rSO C/1B Cameron Miller (2016)
SO OF Levi Gilcrease (2017)
SO 3B Jonathan Ducoff (2017)
FR RHP Andrew McInvale (2018)
FR 2B Josh Bissonette (2018)

High Priority Follows: Daniel Castano, Drew Tolson, Kameron Esthay, West Tunnell, Justin Arrington, Matt Menard, Darryn Sheppard, Aaron Dodson, Cameron Miller

Kansas

JR RHP Sean Rackoski (2016)
SR RHP Hayden Edwards (2016)
SR LHP Ben Krauth (2016)
rSO RHP Jon Hander (2016)
JR RHP Stephen Villines (2016)
SR RHP Sam Gilbert (2016)
JR RHP Tyler Davis (2016)
JR OF Joven Afenir (2016)
rSR OF Joe Moroney (2016)
rSR OF Steve Goldstein (2016)
SR 2B/SS Colby Wright (2016)
SR 2B/SS Tommy Mirabelli (2016)
SR 1B/3B Ryan Pidhaichuk (2016)
rJR 1B Marcus Wheeler (2016)
JR C Michael Tinsley (2016)
SO LHP Blake Weiman (2017)
SO LHP Ryan Jackson (2017)
SO RHP Ryan Ralston (2017)
SO SS/3B Matt McLaughlin (2017)
SO 1B Owen Taylor (2017)
SO C TJ Martin (2017)
FR RHP Jackson Goddard (2018)
FR RHP Zach Leban (2018)
FR INF Ty Denzer (2018)
FR OF Devin Foyle (2018)
FR 3B David Kyriacou (2018)

High Priority Follows: Sean Rackoski, Hayden Edwards, Ben Krauth, Jon Hander, Stephen Villines, Joven Afenir, Joe Moroney, Steve Goldstein, Colby Wright, Tommy Mirabelli, Marcus Wheeler, Michael Tinsley

Kansas State

rSR RHP Lucas Benenati (2016)
rJR RHP Colton Kalmus (2016)
SR RHP Corey Fischer (2016)
SR RHP Levi MaVorhis (2016)
JR LHP Jordan Floyd (2016)
SR RHP Brandon Erickson (2016)
SR OF Clayton Dalrymple (2016)
rJR 2B/SS Jake Wodtke (2016)
SR SS Tyler Wolfe (2016)
JR 1B Jake Scudder (2016)
rJR 3B/C Steve Serratore (2016)
SR C Tyler Moore (2016)
SR OF Danny Krause (2016)
FR RHP John Boushelle (2018)
FR RHP Jacob Ruder (2018)
FR C Josh Rolette (2018)

High Priority Follows: Lucas Benenati, Colton Kalmus, Corey Fischer, Levi MaVorhis, Jordan Floyd, Clayton Dalrymple, Jake Wodtke, Tyler Wolfe, Jake Scudder, Steve Serratore, Tyler Moore

Oklahoma

JR RHP Alec Hansen (2016)
JR RHP Jake Elliott (2016)
SR RHP Keaton Hernandez (2016)
JR LHP Austin Kerns (2016)
JR 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse (2016)
SR OF Hunter Haley (2016)
JR 1B Austin O’Brien (2016)
SR 1B/OF Alex Wise (2016)
JR C Renae Martinez (2016)
JR OF Cody Thomas (2016)
JR 2B/3B Jack Flansburg (2016)
SO 3B Quin Walbergh (2017)
SO 2B Kyle Mendenhall (2017)
FR RHP Jake Irvin (2018)
FR RHP Kyle Tyler (2018)
FR RHP Austin Hansen (2018)
FR RHP Connor Berry (2018)
FR RHP/1B Chris Andritsos (2018)
FR RHP/1B Ryan Madden (2018)
FR INF/RHP Thomas Hughes (2018)
FR C Domenic DeRenzo (2018)
FR OF Steele Walker (2018)
FR INF Cade Harris (2018)
FR 2B/SS Kyler Murray (2018)
FR C/OF Hunter Southerland (2018)

High Priority Follows: Alec Hansen, Jake Elliott, Keaton Hernandez, Austin Kerns, Sheldon Neuse, Hunter Haley, Renae Martinez, Cody Thomas, Jack Flansburg

Just five second year players and four in their last year of eligibility

Oklahoma State

rSR RHP/OF Conor Costello (2016)
JR RHP Remey Reed (2016)
JR LHP Garrett Williams (2016)
SR RHP Michael Mertz (2016)
JR RHP Tyler Buffett (2016)
JR RHP Trey Cobb (2016)
JR RHP Thomas Hatch (2016)
JR RHP Blake Battenfield (2016)
SR LHP Alex Hackerott (2016)
rSO LHP Matt Wilson (2016)
SR SS/2B Donnie Walton (2016)
JR OF Ryan Sluder (2016)
JR 1B/OF Dustin Williams (2016)
SR OF Corey Hassell (2016)
SR 2B Kevin Bradley (2016)
JR 2B JR Davis (2016)
JR C Collin Theroux (2016)
SR 3B/2B David Petrino (2016)
rSO 3B Andrew Rosa (2016)
SO LHP/OF Garrett McCain (2017)
SO 3B/1B Garrett Benge (2017)
SO SS/2B Jacob Chappell (2017)
SO OF Jon Littell (2017)
SO 1B Mason O’Brien (2017)
FR RHP Jensen Elliott (2018)
FR RHP Ben Leeper (2018)
FR C Collin Simpson (2018)

High Priority Follows: Conor Costello, Remey Reed, Garrett Williams, Michael Mertz, Tyler Buffett, Trey Cobb, Thomas Hatch, Blake Battenfield, Alex Hackerott, Matt Wilson, Donnie Walton, Ryan Sluder, Dustin Williams, Corey Hassell, Kevin Bradley, Collin Theroux, David Petrino, Andrew Rosa

Texas Christian

rJR RHP Mitchell Traver (2016)
JR RHP Brian Howard (2016)
rSO LHP Ryan Burnett (2016)
SR RHP Preston Guillory (2016)
rJR RHP Brian Trieglaff (2016)
JR RHP Mitch Sewald (2016)
JR LHP Rex Hill (2016)
SR OF Dane Steinhagen (2016)
SR OF Nolan Brown (2016)
JR 3B/SS Elliott Barzilli (2016)
JR 3B/2B Cam Warner (2016)
JR 2B Mason Hesse (2016)
JR SS Ryan Merrill (2016)
SO 1B/OF Connor Wanhanen (2017)
SO C Evan Skoug (2017)
SO C Zack Plunkett (2017)
FR RHP/1B Luken Baker (2018)
FR RHP Devon Roedahl (2018)
FR RHP Sean Wymer (2018)
FR RHP Dalton Brown (2018)
FR LHP Dalton Horton (2018)
FR C/RHP Durbin Feltman (2018)
FR OF Ryan Johnson (2018)
FR OF Joshua Watson (2018)

High Priority Follows: Mitchell Traver, Brian Howard, Ryan Burnett, Preston Guillory, Brian Trieglaff, Mitch Sewald, Rex Hill, Dane Steinhagen, Nolan Brown, Elliott Barzilli, Cam Warner, Mason Hesse, Ryan Merrill

Texas

rSO RHP Morgan Cooper (2016)
JR LHP Josh Sawyer (2016)
SR LHP Ty Culbreth (2016)
SR LHP Travis Duke (2016)
JR LHP Jon Malmin (2016)
JR 1B/RHP Kacy Clemens (2016)
JR C/3B Tres Barrera (2016)
rSO SS/3B Bret Boswell (2016)
JR OF/3B Zane Gurwitz (2016)
SO RHP Kyle Johnston (2017)
SO RHP Connor Mayes (2017)
SO RHP Tyler Schimpf (2017)
SO RHP Jake McKenzie (2017)
rFR RHP Parker Joe Robinson (2017)
FR LHP Nick Kennedy (2017)
SO C Michael Cantu (2017)
SO OF Patrick Mathis (2017)
SO 2B/SS Joe Baker (2017)
SO SS/3B Travis Jones (2017)
rFR OF Kaleb Denny (2017)
FR RHP Nolan Kingham (2018)
FR RHP Beau Ridgeway (2018)
FR RHP/OF Chase Shugart (2018)
FR LHP James Nittoli (2018):
FR RHP Blake Wellmann (2018):
FR 3B/2B Kody Clemens (2018)
FR OF Tyler Rand (2018)
FR 3B Matt Schmidt (2018)
FR OF Brady Harlan (2018)

High Priority Follows: Morgan Cooper, Josh Sawyer, Ty Culbreth, Travis Duke, Jon Malmin, Kacy Clemens, Tres Barrera, Bret Boswell, Zane Gurwitz

Texas Tech

JR RHP Chandler Eden (2016)
JR RHP Ryan Moseley (2016)
JR LHP Dylan Dusek (2016)
JR LHP Ty Damron (2016)
JR RHP Sean Thompson (2016)
JR LHP Hayden Howard (2016)
SR RHP Dalton Brown (2016)
SR OF Tyler Neslony (2016)
SR 1B Eric Gutierrez (2016)
SR OF Zach Davis (2016)
SR C Tyler Floyd (2016)
rJR SS/2B Cory Raley (2016)
rJR C Kholeton Sanchez (2016)
JR 3B Ryan Long (2016)
JR OF Stephen Smith (2016)
JR OF Hunter Hargrove (2016)
JR OF Anthony Lyons (2016)
SO LHP Jacob Patterson (2017)
SO RHP/OF Pat Mahomes (2017)
SO LHP/1B Parker Mushinski (2017)
SO SS/OF Tanner Gardner (2017)
SO SS Orlando Garcia (2017)
SO 2B Michael Davis (2017)
FR LHP Erikson Lanning (2018)
FR RHP Davis Martin (2018)
FR RHP Ty Harpeneau (2018)
FR RHP Ryan Shetter (2018)
FR LHP Steven Gingery (2018)
FR OF Cody Farhat (2018)
FR 2B/SS Trey Ochoa (2018)

High Priority Follows: Chandler Eden, Ryan Moseley, Dylan Dusek, Ty Damron, Hayden Howard, Dalton Brown, Tyler Neslony, Eric Gutierrez, Tyler Floyd, Cory Raley, Kholeton Sanchez, Stephen Smith, Hunter Hargrove, Anthony Lyons

West Virginia

rSO RHP Nick Wernke (2016)
SR RHP Blake Smith (2016)
rSR LHP Ross Vance (2016)
SR RHP Jeff Hardy (2016)
JR RHP Chad Donato (2016)
rSR OF KC Huth (2016)
rSO 2B Shaun Corso (2016)
JR 1B/RHP Jackson Cramer (2016)
SO RHP BJ Myers (2017)
SO RHP Conner Dotson (2017)
SO RHP Shane Ennis (2017)
SO 3B/OF Kyle Davis (2017)
SO OF Caleb Potter (2017)
FR RHP Braden Zarbnisky (2018)
FR RHP Tanner Campbell (2018)
FR RHP Michael Grove (2018)
FR 2B Cole Austin (2018)
FR C Ivan Vera (2018)

High Priority Follows: Nick Wernke, Blake Smith, Ross Vance, Jeff Hardy, Chad Donato, KC Huth, Shaun Corso, Jackson Cramer

2016 MLB Draft Mock Draft – Territorial Rights

8 Apr 2016 7:00 AM / 3 Comments on 2016 MLB Draft Mock Draft – Territorial Rights

The 2016 MLB Draft will be here before we know it, so that can only mean one thing: it’s MOCK DRAFT season. It’s been a few years since I published a mock draft around here, but I figured it was finally time to get back in the game. Of course, since I can’t offer much in the way of insider intel — I’m not BA-era peak Jim Callis over here — putting together a mock would be pretty much pointless. With the proper analysis attached to each pick mock drafts can be fun and interesting reads, not to mention a great way of exposing casual fans — the number of people who Google “2016 mlb mock draft” that find this site is insane, at least relative to the four people who read on their own volition otherwise — to players they might have not yet heard of. I might attempt a mock like that between now and June. Or not. Either way, this ain’t it.

So until then (or not) we’ll have some fun and take the idea of a mock draft to the logical extreme. If “mock” means to make something seem laughably unreal or impossible, let’s make our mock draft as unreal or impossible as we can. Our fourth edition of this 2016 MLB Mock Draft is based on territorial rights. Teams can only draft a player that currently plays amateur ball in within the confines of their state. Easy enough, right? Unfortunately this means no Jay Groome, Nick Senzel, Riley Pint, Delvin Perez, Corey Ray, Alec Hansen, Connor Jones, Josh Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Matt Krook, Dakota Hudson, Anthony Kay, Joe Rizzo, Jordan Sheffield, Will Craig…and on and on and on and on. It does, however, allow for some fun mid-first round steals and a few interesting decisions when picking players from states both big and small. Let’s do it…

1 – Philadelphia Phillies – Holy Ghost Prep SS/3B Nolan Jones

My home state of Pennsylvania has nine D1 schools with baseball programs covering five different conferences. I’ve seen four of the schools already — Penn, Lafayette, St. Joe’s, Villanova — and have a shot to see all nine by the end of the season if I plan my schedule out creatively. There are some solid prospects at those universities — David Bednar stood out so far — who will most definitely be drafted this June, but the real strength of the 2016 Pennsylvania draft class is in the prep talent. My very preliminary look at this year’s high school class has around a dozen names that could get drafted this year out of the state. The best is Nolan Jones, a prospect good enough to be on the short list of the Phillies in a non-nonsense mock draft (i.e., what we call “real life”). Jones has all the tools to be a plus defender at the hot corner with the raw power and aptitude for hitting that could make him one of the best all-around infielders to come out of this class. He’s a really exciting prospect…and a truer “local” prospect to Philadelphia than a certain Jersey lefty, if you’re into that sort of thing.

2 – Cincinnati Reds – Ohio State OF Ronnie Dawson

Cincinnati had a surprisingly high number of options despite being limited to picking only from Ohio. With eleven D1 schools to choose from — some of which were not instantly recognizable to me as Ohio schools, like Wright State and…fine, just Wright State — there was plenty of college talent to make up for the lack of interesting high school prospects. Ronnie Dawson barely beat out teammate Troy Montgomery, Sean Murphy, and the TBD eventual pick of the Indians below. I cringe a little when I hear some of the terms scouts use to describe players — a far worse practice in football than baseball, admittedly — but one of those terms I hate applies too well to Dawson to ignore: he’s a beast. Big, strong, athletic, powerful, fleet of foot…there’s no other way to put it, he’s a beast.

3 – Atlanta Braves – Mercer OF Kyle Lewis

Turns out Georgia, one of the strongest states for high school draft prospects in recent years, actually has less D1 schools that play ball (seven) than either Pennsylvania or Ohio. Go figure. Josh Lowe, Carter Kieboom, Will Benson, Taylor Trammel, and Alex Speas (among many others) keep that impressive prep tradition alive in 2016, but the Braves, long rumored to covet a college bat early on draft day, can’t pass up the biggest, baddest name in the college game. Locking down a future fixture in the middle of your order isn’t a bad way to accelerate the rebuild. Between those high school players and Lewis, Georgia just might be my favorite prospect state in this year’s class.

4 – Colorado Rockies – Air Force RHP Griffin Jax

I debated on a few high school arms before finally settling on Regis Jesuit RHP Bo Weiss as the pick here. Then I realized I totally blanked on Air Force being right around Colorado Springs. That made the selection a little bit easier and a little bit harder all at once. I’d take either Griffin Jax or Jacob DeVries over any of the admittedly intriguing group of 2016 Colorado prep pitchers (really like Paul Tillotson and Travis Marr is interesting, too), but choosing between the two Air Force co-aces isn’t easy. Jax gives you a little more certainty than DeVries — who might have a little bit of recently acquired Rockies closer Jake McGee in him now that I think about it — with the added benefit of being no slouch in the upside department in his own right. I really think Colorado is building something potentially special. While a rock solid mid- to late-rotation arm might seem like the sexiest pick, Jax is the kind of guy you can take for granted (in a good way) as a useful big league piece without worrying about him stalling out for anything but an injury.

5 – Milwaukee Brewers – Verona Area HS C Ben Rortvedt

Much has been made about this year’s high school class having talented players spring out of traditionally unconventional places. One of the better examples of that is how top-heavy the prep prospects in Wisconsin are this year. There’s depth to be sure, but it’s the top tier guys that really make the state stand out. As I cycled through names I kept finding myself saying “Oh yeah, it’ll be him,” before getting to the next name and reconsidering. Nate Brown and Gavin Lux, in particular, are players that would almost certainly be the best in their class in any other year. Instead, the Brewers attempt to get their catcher of the future in Ben Rortvedt, a wholly impressive defensive player who combines outstanding physical strength with above-average agility behind the dish.

6 – Oakland Athletics – La Costa Canyon HS OF Mickey Moniak

If the draft is held on a day that ends in a Y, then that must mean that California is loaded with pro prospects. This pick came down to Mickey Moniak vs Blake Rutherford, easily the most fascinating prospect head-to-head battle in this class right now. I’d get more enjoyment watching Moniak run down fly balls in Oakland’s big dumb ballpark than Rutherford hit balls out of it, so Moniak takes it.

7 – Miami Marlins – Miami C Zack Collins

I’ll keep banging the drum for Zack Collins as a legitimate top ten pick as long as it takes for somebody to take note. If Kyle Schwarber can go fourth overall, then why not Collins? If anything, I think Collins is the better draft prospect of the two.

8 – San Diego Padres – Chaminade Prep OF Blake Rutherford

The Padres might be best served by these rule changes than any other team in this mock. Their future real life haul should be pretty impressive — holding three picks in the top twenty-five makes them the envy of every scouting department — but the damage they could do just by poaching half of the top half-dozen prospects from California could wind up just as extensive. Whether you love Rutherford or still have reservations about his game (or find yourself gutless riding the fence…like me!), getting him with the eight overall pick is fun.

9 – Detroit Tigers – Michigan 1B/LHP Carmen Benedetti

Search for “Carmen Benedetti” on this site. I’ve written a lot about him lately. Assuming you don’t — and good for you not being bossed around by some baseball nerd on the internet — the quick version is he’s really good at baseball, both the hitting/fielding part and the pitching part. I’ve likened him to Brian Johnson more than once, and I think he’s shown enough as a position player to get a shot in the field first. The raw power might not scream slam dunk future big league regular at first base, but the overall offensive and defensive profile could make him an above-average regular for a long time.

10 – Chicago White Sox – Illinois RHP Cody Sedlock

I appreciate that of the eleven schools that play D1 baseball in Illinois, eight have Illinois directly in the university name. That made my life a lot easier when searching my database. My mind still kept wanting to give the White Sox Corey Ray, but that would be against our hastily put together yet very important ironclad rules. Future big league starter Cody Sedlock isn’t a bad consolation prize. Bradley, Chicago State, and Northwestern are the three Illinois schools without Illinois in the name…just in case you were wondering.

11 – Seattle Mariners – Federal Way HS 1B/OF Christian Jones

It was a close call between Ian Hamilton and Christian Jones, but the bat trumped the arm in the end. That’s often my personal preference on these things. Jones has been on the radar for me as much for the sound he makes on contact than any visual observation I’ve made. If he can play the outfield professionally, as many are beginning to think, then so much the better.

12 – Boston Red Sox – Boston College RHP Justin Dunn

With apologies to the dynamic duo of Dustin Hunt and Aaron Civale at Northeastern, it’s Justin Dunn and his easy upper-90s heat that finds himself on the fast track to Fenway’s bullpen. If Dunn (or Jesse Adams, John Nicklas, Mike King, or any other Eagle) does get drafted by Boston this June, then he’ll be the first to turn the trick since Jed Rogers in 2001 and only the sixth BC to the Red Sox draft connection fo all-time. How about that? Dunn (and/or the rest) would also attempt to have a pro career that finished with positive bWAR, something that has been done only once (!) in school history so far. Of the six Boston College players to reach the big leagues, five had/have negative career bWAR. Only Tony Sanchez’s 0.4 figure is in the black.

13 – Tampa Bay Rays – Florida LHP AJ Puk

The Rays take advantage of our draft rules to land arguably this draft’s top college pitching prospect. Even coming off an aborted start due to a balky back, AJ Puk is currently trending up as he rides the rollercoaster that has taken him from underrated (this time last year) to overrated (much of the offseason) to potentially a tad underrated once again. He probably never should have been pushed so heavily as a potential 1-1 guy — in the mix, sure, but not as the favorite/co-favorite — but his value settling even just a few picks after feels about right. It sounds a bit superficial because maybe it is, but 1-1 guys get picked apart in a way that even potential top five candidates do not. The focus has been on Puk’s inconsistent slider, underwhelming change, and spotty command. That’s what he can’t do. What he does well — pitch off an explosive mid-90s fastball, flash a dominant mid-80s slider, and use his 6-7, 225 pound frame to every advantage possible — he does really darn well. Needless to say he’d be a steal at thirteen.

14 – Cleveland Indians – Kent State LHP Eric Lauer

I’ll quote myself on Lauer, if you’ll allow it…

There isn’t a box that he doesn’t check when looking for a potentially quick-moving above-average mid-rotation big league starting pitcher. He’s an athletic (like Plesac) lefthander (like Deeg/Akin), with good size (like Deeg/Plesac), very strong performance indicators (10.78 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9), above-average heat (88-94) that he commands like a pro, and a complete assortment of offspeed pitches (74-77 CB, 78-82 SL, emerging CU) he can throw in any count. One could quibble by noting there’s no singular knockout pitch here – maybe with continued work one of his secondaries can become a consistent plus pitch, but certainly not presently – so maybe Lauer’s best case scenario outcome isn’t quite that of some of his peers across the country, but that’s a nitpick for a still impressive ceiling/high floor starting arm. Maybe you don’t love him – I kind of do, clearly…but maybe you don’t – but he’s still a prospect that’s hard not to at least like.

15 – Minnesota Twins – Minnesota C Austin Athmann

There’s no young Joe Mauer hiding in the the Gopher State this year, but the Minnesota University battery of Dalton Sawyer to Austin Athmann gives the Twins two intriguing draft options right off the top. Again we go hitter over pitcher when the talent levels appear close from the outside looking in. Athmann has a strong arm and really solid 2016 numbers. Good enough for me.

16 – Los Angeles Angels – Cal RHP Daulton Jefferies

I like this pick because it helps make this feel more like a mock draft than a random assortment of players listed according to arbitrary rules. The Angels would have their pick from a ton of talented California prospects, but here they opt for the relatively safety of Daulton Jefferies. As much fun as going for a home run pick would be — Avery Tuck, one of the many prep arms, and Lucas Erceg all come to mind — the Angels simply can not afford to come away from this draft with a serious early round hit. Jefferies is as close to big league ready as any college starter in this class, so it’s a pretty perfect marriage.

17 – Houston Astros – Rice RHP Jon Duplantier

I’ve typed and deleted a few different variations of how down Texas is this year, but can’t bring myself to go through with it. There are a handful of high school prospects as always — less than usual it seems — and all of the college programs seem down. Those might be too broad generalizations — I’m waiting for a fan of one of the schools in Texas (not Dallas Baptist, though, because they are awesome and everybody should know that) to call me out any second now — but A&M (the best of the bunch), Baylor, Rice, TCU, Tech, and, most egregiously, Texas all seem down relative to the standards we’ve come to expect. None of that should diminish the accomplishments and credentials of Jon Duplantier, who has pitched his tail off all season long. Despite rarely mentioned as a potential first round pick, Duplantier has sneaky top of the rotation upside. The only red flag is the university he pitches for; thankfully, that risk is mitigated some by the fact his history of missing time with relatively minor injuries has prevented his coach from overworking him so far. Smaller injuries might have prevented him from getting overworked to the point of larger injuries. Ironic, right? If Duplantier flops in the pros, I’m out on Rice pitchers forever.

18 – New York Yankees – Shenendehowa HS RHP Ian Anderson

Fans of twenty-nine other teams would not like this one bit. Ian Anderson, a dark-horse 1-1 candidate, has everything you’d want to see in a high school righthander with worlds of projection left. He also helps my pet theory that there’s an easy shortcut to amateur scouting: just follow the recruits. If a player is committed to Vanderbilt, like Ian Anderson is, move him up ___ spots on your board. Let the college teams do the hard work for you! Vanderbilt, Florida, UCLA, LSU…if a guy has a commitment to a school on that level, then you should want to draft him. I loved Anderson as much as anybody as he began to put his name on the national map, but once he had that Vandy commit in his back pocket he started looking better than ever.

19 – New York Mets – Henninger HS LHP Jeff Belge

Jeff Belge would help replenish the Mets pitching pipeline. That’s about all I’ve got. Belge got off to a fast start as a prospect relative to his peers thanks to his imposing size (6-6, 240) and present arm strength (85-92 FB, up to 94-95). Others have caught and exceeded him in this class, but he’s still a talented young lefty capable of using three offspeed pitches and blowing fastballs by the opposition.

20 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Stanford RHP Cal Quantrill

Plus fastball, plus change, plus pitchability, and flashes of two different breaking balls with upside. Get Cal Quantrill back on a mound and watch him fly up boards as we get closer to June. Sight unseen from last spring, I’d still consider taking him just outside the top ten picks or so.

21 – Toronto Blue Jays – York Mills Collegiate Institute C Andy Yerzy

Covering the entire country is one thing, but trying to develop solid contacts in Canada and Puerto Rico gives me that extra degree of difficulty that makes me want to bang my head against the wall at times. I do like what I know about Andy Yerzy and Austin Shields. Are they the top two Canadian prospects for 2016? Beats me. But they are my favorites for now.

22 – Pittsburgh Pirates – Plum HS OF Alex Kirilloff

Pittsburgh opts to stay close to home with the nod going to the local prep star over the local college star. Even with the successful recent return to health of the very talented TJ Zeuch, the potential plus all-around bat of Alex Kirilloff is too tempting to pass up on. Hey, it worked with the Neil Walker pick, so why not go to the Pittsburgh high school baseball well again in the first round? As a hitter, Kirilloff can really do it all: big raw power, plus bat speed, a mature approach, and a hit tool so promising that almost every scout has agreed that he’s an advanced hitter who happens to hit for power rather than the other way around. He’s the rare high school prospect who could hit enough to have confidence in him as a pro even if eventually confined to first base.

23 – St. Louis Cardinals – Missouri SS Ryan Howard

The Cardinals can only hope that I still have the patience to do these silly mocks next year. Instead of trying to decide on which prospect to reach on like this, they’d have the luxury of debating between Tanner Houck and Jake Burger. Because it’s 2016 and not 2017, however, Ryan Howard resembles the most sensible pick. I think he probably tops out as a quality utility infielder in the big leagues, but focusing on the “in the big leagues” part rather than the “utility infielder” aspect makes it worthwhile.

24 – San Diego Padres – San Diego SS Bryson Brigman

I’m not sure I have much more to add on Brigman at the moment than what I wrote recently about him…

Doing so would allow me to regularly see Bryson Brigman, a prospect that has begun to remind me a lot of Arizona’s Scott Kingery from last year’s draft. Kingery was a second round pick (48th overall) and I could see Brigman rising to a similar level by June. Like Kingery last year, Brigman’s defensive future remains a question for scouts. Fortunately for both, the question is framed more around trying him in challenging spots than worrying about having to hide him elsewhere on the diamond. Brigman has an above-average to plus defensive future at second back in his back pocket already, so his playing a solid shortstop in 2016 is doing so with house money. In much the same way that former second baseman Alex Bregman wore everybody down with consistent above-average play at short last college season, Brigman has proved to many that he has what it takes to stick at shortstop in pro ball. Brigman’s appeal at this point is pretty clear: tons of defensive potential in the middle infield, contact abilities that elicit the classic “he could find a hole rolling out of bed” remarks from onlookers, and enough of the sneaky pop/mature approach offensive extras needed to be an impactful regular in the big leagues. I’ll stick with the Kingery – who smart people told me here could play shortstop if needed, a position since corroborated by those who have seen him in the pros (I’ll be seeing him for myself on Saturday, FWIW) – comparison for now, but I wouldn’t object to somebody who offered up a mix of the best of both Kingery and his old double play partner Kevin Newman. That would obviously be some kind of special player, but Brigman doesn’t seem too far off. I’ve said before I hate when people throw around terms like “first round player” so loosely that you could count 100 first rounders in their eyes in the months leading up to June, but I’ll be guilty of it here and call Brigman a first round player as of now. I’ve really come to appreciate his game since the start of the season.

25 – San Diego Padres – Santa Barbara HS RHP Kevin Gowdy

I haven’t been able to sneak Kevin Gowdy on to one of these mocks just yet, so it’s great that he finally made the cut. It wasn’t easy, what with guys like Matt Manning, Reggie Lawson, Nick Lodolo, Corbin Burnes, and Lucas Erceg all vying for the second to last California spot, but he made it. Since we’re firmly in the quote yourself section of the mock by now, here’s me from the comments section earlier this week on Gowdy: “Love Gowdy. Command, deception, and frame are all really promising. Puts his fastball where he wants it better than most of his college-aged peers. Velocity is good and breaking ball looks legit. And on top of all that, his delivery is a thing of beauty to me. I normally leave mechanics alone — don’t care what it looks long as long as the pitcher can repeat it consistently — but Gowdy’s stand out as being particularly efficient. I’m a big fan. Likely a top five prep pitcher in this class.”

26 – Chicago White Sox – Carmel Catholic HS C Cooper Johnson

I do not know if Cooper Johnson will hit enough to be a viable big league player. I do know that he can defend the heck out of his position. I had him on a Russell Martin (high), Francisco Cervelli (medium), and Austin Hedges (low) spectrum after seeing him over the summer. We’re getting late enough in this draft that even the low outcome for him would give you enough value back. Gambling on a defensive weapon behind the plate figuring things out just enough as a hitter seems like a smart bet to me.

27 – Baltimore Orioles – Maryland RHP Mike Shawaryn

Many words were written about Mike Shawaryn in yesterday’s post, so I’ll refer any new readers to that first and foremost. If you recall, my conclusions about Shawaryn centered on the idea that he has the chance to be one of the draft’s best undervalued assets, assuming his 2016 funk is attributable more to fatigue than anything else. Draft him in the second or third round — late first is pushing it, but so go the rules of the mock — and give him all the time off he needs to feel 100% again. There are lots of health-based assumptions here that I really shouldn’t be making, but I figure the underlying point is that the real Shawaryn is still really good when rested and ready gives me a little bit of moral leeway. Anyway, please don’t let this happen in real life. Shawaryn, a man (maybe) in need of a team with an expert minor league medical staff, should be kept as far a way as possible from whatever it is that’s causing all of Baltimore’s pitching prospects to fall apart.

28 – Washington Nationals – Georgetown RHP David Ellingson

This really isn’t fair to the team in our nation’s capital, but they had the top pick in back-to-back years with a generational talent waiting for them AND somehow got to watch a bunch of teams let a pair of injured stars fall into their laps. It’s only right that they get some bad draft luck for a change. The player pool is all but limited to George Washington, Georgetown, and a very small group of high school players. David Ellingson could give them some middle relief help in a few years. That’s literally better than passing on the pick, right?

29 – Washington Nationals – Georgetown RHP Matt Smith

What’s really messed up about the Nationals being stuck only picking players from DC is how close (yet so far) they are to an absolute hotbed of baseball talent. How nice would Connor Jones look in this spot? Or any one of the good to great high school prospects found in Virginia this year? We’re talking Joe Rizzo, Khalil Lee, Zach Hess, Noah Murdock, Bobby Nicholson…the list goes on. Like his once and future teammate Ellingson, Matt Smith could be a nice middle reliever down the line. That’s good, too!

30 – Texas Rangers – Alamo Heights HS RHP Forrest Whitley

A big Texan with power stuff going to the Rangers. Narratives everywhere! Though I guess he had to be a Texan automatically because that’s the whole point of the draft. And he’s the best of an underwhelming crop from the state. You could argue Nick Banks here, but I’ll go with a pitcher over the hitter to change things up. Can you tell that we’re only a few picks away from the finish line?

31 – New York Mets – Buffalo RHP Mike Kaelin

The Mets have cleaned up in some of the other drafts we’ve done so far, so I don’t feel too bad with them being challenged in our geographical version of things. Thomas Hackimer would be an equally fine pick to Mike Kaelin, but I have too much of a soft spot for the undersized reliever from Buffalo to pass on him now.

32 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Steele Canyon HS OF Avery Tuck

With all the talent in California this year — I named names in the last San Diego pick — some might be surprised to see Avery Tuck emerge as the final pick from the Golden State. I’m an unabashed fan of upside, what can I say?

33 – St. Louis Cardinals – De Smet Jesuit HS LHP Erik Miller

Making the best of being limited only to the great state of Missouri, the Cards nab the state’s best high school prospect in Erik Miller. A three-pitch lefthander with enviable size (6-5, 220), present velocity (88-93), and deception in his delivery isn’t a bad way to spend a first round pick.

34 – St. Louis Cardinals – Missouri RHP Reggie McClain

The Cardinals would have to be so jealous of the Padres in a draft like this. Reggie McClain as a consolation prize isn’t the worst thing in the world. In fact, I like the redshirt-senior quite a bit as a late single-digit round senior-sign option. Easy to love his changeup, control, and athleticism. It’s just that Howard, Miller and McClain isn’t exactly Rutherford, Brigman, and Gowdy.

2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – Big Ten

7 Apr 2016 6:00 AM / 1 Comment on 2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – Big Ten

I see tiers that have developed in the Big 10 that put a fairly clear delineation between prospect groups. The big four hitters at the top — Ryan Boldt, Carmen Benedetti, Ronnie Dawson, Troy Montgomery — appear close to impenetrable in terms of holding on to their rankings through the end of the season. The order of that four may shift, but the names seem pretty safely ensconced at the top. At the very top is Boldt, still. Despite hitting well over .300 and controlling the strike zone as a college player, Boldt’s bandwagon has emptied some over the years. The biggest knock on him has always been about the utility of his average to above-average raw power; scouts saw it in him, but rarely was he able to put it use in game action. I can’t speak to that directly having not seen him in a few years now, but it certainly sounds like there have been signs of him slowly yet surely getting closer to being able to consistently tap into his natural power lately. That edge helps bump his stock up from top three round player to potential first round talent (again). We already know he’s an excellent athlete with above-average to plus speed, easy center field range, and a pretty, balanced, and efficient swing that allows for lots of hard contact. All of that and an above-average hit tool add up to a potential quality regular. If you throw in the possibility of power, he’s even more appealing; better yet is the realization of that power, something that some scouts have seen and now swear by while others remain unconvinced it’s more than a hot streak. I’m cautiously optimistic about his power gains being real, but that’s hardly going out on a ledge with a prospect that has Boldt’s type of plate coverage and aptitude to make adjustments (e.g., his newfound aggressiveness in hitter’s counts [fastball hunting early, finally] and tweaks to his swing). I stand by my older comps to him: as a prospect he reminds me of David Dahl and I can see his career path going a similar way as Randy Winn’s. Seeing a really good prospect and an underrated everyday player as comps should make clear what I think about Boldt.

Carmen Benedetti is such a favorite of mine that I didn’t even bother with dropping the FAVORITE designation in my notes on him; it’s just assumed. He’s not the best prospect in this class, but he has a case for being one of the best players. I’ve compared him to Florida’s Brian Johnson (now with the Boston Red Sox) in the past and I think he’s legitimately good enough both as a pitcher and a hitter to have a pro future no matter what his drafting team prefers. As with Johnson, I prefer Benedetti getting his shot as a position player first. I’m a sucker for smooth fielding first basemen with bat speed, above-average raw power, and the kind of disciplined approach one might expect from a part-time pitcher who can fill up the strike zone with the best of them. If he does wind up on the mound, I won’t object. He’s good enough to transition to the rotation professionally thanks to a fine fastball (90-94), above-average 77-80 change, a usable curve, and heaps of athleticism. I get that I like Benedetti and this draft class more than most, but the fact that a prospect of his caliber isn’t likely to even approach Johnson’s draft position (31st overall) says something about the quality and depth of the 2016 MLB Draft.

Interestingly enough, I found this from four years ago when looking back at what was written about Brian Johnson on this site…

I tend to err on the side of “pitch first, hit second,” but Brian Johnson is a better position player prospect for me right now so that’s where he sits. I believe in the power enough that I think his bat could be enough to hold down an everyday job at first in the big leagues someday. Check a first base minor league prospect ranking to see how rare that is these days.

My position on two-way players has done a 180 since then. Now I’d rather start a 50/50 prospect out as a hitter first because of my belief that it’s easier to get back into pitching later on. I have nothing to back that up other than anecdotal evidence, so feel free to call me out on it if it seems nuts. I’ve tried to get a few smart baseball people on the record with their thoughts on the debate, but almost every single response is some variation of “well, it depends on the circumstances since every case is different.” That’s true! But that’s also exactly what I’m getting at with the question: if we were to eliminate all other variables, which would you choose then? Still can’t get an answer. Maybe I’m asking it wrong. Whatever.

Both Ohio State outfielders are excellent prospects who haven’t received their proper due nationally. I don’t think there’s any malicious intent behind them being still below the radar – there are only so many hours in a day to write about all the wonderful amateur players across the country – but it’s still a shame that the pair are often ignored whenever conversations about top college outfielders do come up. Dawson is a man among boys with big league strength and prodigious raw power. He’s an aggressive hitter, but more selective and controlled than his reputation might have you think. Montgomery is built just a little differently – he stands in at 5-10, 180 pounds, giving the OSU faithful a fun visual contrast to Dawson’s stacked 6-2, 225 pound frame – but is an area scout favorite for his smart, relentless style of play. Every single one of his tools play up because of how he approaches the game, and said tools aren’t too shabby to begin with. Montgomery can hit, run, and field at a high level, and his lack smaller frame belies power good enough to help him profile as a regular with continued overall development. I’m bullish on both Buckeyes.

The next tier down is filled with catching prospects. This really wasn’t intentional, though the obvious observation that up-the-middle defenders tend to rank higher than corner bats (at least non-transcendent types) as a matter of fact isn’t lost on me. Stop me if you’ve heard this out of me before: I don’t know much about _____, but what I do know I like. In this case, that’s Austin Athmann. Notes on him are limited (“strong arm, promising bat”), but his performance this year has made getting to know him better a high priority.

I’m in on Nick Cieri’s bat, but his defense is clearly behind the other catchers mentioned. I think Harrison Wenson has passed him as a similarly talented offensive player who has made real strides defensively in the last year. Both players will be hurt some by the tremendous college catching class that surrounds them – teams won’t have to settle for defensive question marks who can hit this year, at least in the top five or so rounds – but pro-caliber bats like theirs won’t last long on draft day all the same. Jason Goldstein is one of those all-around catching prospects that teams should like a lot on draft day, but all indications point towards that being a minority view than a consensus around baseball. I liked Goldstein a lot last year, I still like him this year, and it’s fine that he’ll likely be drafted much later than where he’ll be ranked on my board. He’s a heady defender with enough arm strength to profile as a big league backup at worst.

The one non-catcher in the group is Jordan Zimmerman. The offseason buzz on Zimmerman was that he was a good runner with an above-average arm and a chance to hit right away. All true so far. The only issue I have with Zimmerman as a prospect is where he’ll play defensively as a professional. I had him as a second baseman in my notes throughout the offseason, but he’s played a ton of first base so far for the Spartans. If he’s athletic enough to make the switch to second as a pro, then he’s a prospect of note. If not, then all the standard disclaimers about his bat needing to play big to keep finding work as a first baseman apply. I believe in the bat and skew positive that he can handle a non-first infield spot (again, likely second), but those beliefs don’t change the fact that I need to find out more about him.

After these first two tiers, things are extremely muddled. I like Craig Dedelow as an underrated hitter with playable center field range and interesting size. Adam Walton and Joel Booker are strong enough defenders to stick in pro ball for a long time. Same could be said for Nick Sergakis, one of college ball’s biggest surprises so far this season. Nothing about Sergakis’s profile makes sense, but he deserves a load of credit for going from decent college player to actual draft prospect seemingly overnight.

It’s not a straight line comparison, but if you squint you can see some parallels between the Big 10’s top hitting prospect (Boldt) and top pitching prospect (Mike Shawaryn). Both were graced with high expectations – Boldt out of high school, Shawaryn coming into the year – and have stumbled some to quite live up to them. Boldt started as a big-time prospect, hit more good than great for the better part of two years (I’d argue that point, but it’s the narrative), and is now arguably on the precipice of a return to draft prospect glory. Shawaryn’s national breakout wasn’t fully realized until a few weeks into his sophomore season (though, for the sake of clarity and/or ego, he was a FAVORITE on this site as a HS senior coming out of Gloucester Catholic in Jersey), so the hype train on him has been more sudden and less the slow burn of Boldt’s rise and fall (and rise).

Shawaryn’s big 2015 (10.71 K/9 and 1.71 ERA in 116.0 IP) set him up as a potential first round pick coming into the year, but a slight dip in production and stuff has many cooler on him now than before. He’s always been in that ten to fifteen range for him as a 2016 college arm, so the recent downtick in stuff isn’t something I’m too worked up about. At his best, he’s got enough fastball (87-94, 95 peak), a changeup with big upside, and a breaking ball that seemingly improves every time out (even as he’s had some rocky starts this year). Breaking down his individual pitches is obviously important, but the main selling point with Shawaryn was always going to be his above-average to plus command, standout control, and deceptive motion. Assuming his decline is more fatigue – he’s approaching almost 250 college innings in his career; for context’s sake, that’s about a hundred more than AJ Puk and over twice as many as Alec Hansen – than injury (though separating the two can be tricky without proper pre-draft medical screening), Shawaryn might be the perfect candidate for a team in round two (or three if they are lucky) willing to draft a potential mid-rotation starting pitcher with the intent not to pitch him competitively the summer after signing. Draft him, sign him, get him working with your top player development staffers, and focus more about 2017 rather than getting onto the field immediately. If it turns out he’s feeling good and looking good sooner rather than later, so be it. But he’s the type of smart young pitcher that could begin his first professional season at High-A without much concern. That’s the path I’d consider taking with him, but maybe I’m making more out of a few good rather than great starts than I really ought to.

Despite all the words and attention spent on Shawaryn, I gave very serious consideration to putting Cody Sedlock in the top spot. Properly rated by many of the experts yet likely underrated by the more casual amateur draft fans, Sedlock is a four-pitch guy – there is a weirdly awesome high number of these pitchers in the Big 10 this year — with the ability to command three intriguing offspeed pitches (SL, CB, CU) well enough for mid-rotation big league potential. I try not to throw mid-rotation starter upside around lightly; Sedlock is really good. Jake Kelzer is an incredible athlete who just so happens to be 6-8, 235 pounds. Those two things alone are cool, but together are really damn exciting. Enough of a fastball (88-92, 94 peak…but could play up in shorter bursts) and a nasty hard slider (87-88) give him a chance to be a quick-moving reliever, but the overall package could be worth trying as a starter first.

A pair of fourth-year lefthanders has flown a little bit under the radar this season despite being relatively famous prospects prior to 2016. Cameron Vieaux and Dalton Sawyer are both big (6-5, 200 pounds and 6-5, 215 pounds, respectively) men with big league stuff. Vieaux throws hard, can spin two effective breaking balls, and knows when to drop in his improving low-80s change. I think he can remain in the rotation professionally. Sawyer seems destined for the bullpen, a spot where his fastball (up to 94), mid-70s breaker, and effectively wild ways could get him to the big leagues sooner rather than later. Evan Hill (6-5, 190) doesn’t immediately come to mind when thinking of the many long and lean lefties in the conference (for proof of that just look at the start of this paragraph: there was clearly no intent to include him at the onset, so I’m calling an audible to wedge him in without deleting or rewriting any of my exhausting two minutes of previous work), but he’s a prospect good enough to make the Vieaux/Sawyer pairing a trio. I didn’t know I had such a thing for tall lefties until now, but here we are.

Brett Adcock doesn’t have the size as Vieaux, Sawyer, or his teammate Hill, but his stuff is no less impressive. Lefties that can throw four pitches for strikes with his kind of track record of success, both peripherally (10.29 K/9 in 2014, 9.50 K/9 in 2015) and traditionally (2.87 ERA in 2014, 3.10 ERA in 2015), have a tendency to get noticed even when coming in a 6-0, 215 package. I had somebody describe him to me as “Anthony Kay without the killer change,” an odd comparison that kind of works the less you think about it. Adcock has a good fastball (88-92, 94 peak) and two average or better breaking balls (77-81 SL is fine, but his 75-78 CB could be a big league put away pitch) in addition to an upper-70s changeup that is plenty usable yet hardly on par with Kay’s dominant offering. If Kay is a borderline first round talent (he is), then surely Adcock could find his way into the draft’s top five or so rounds. That might be too aggressive to some, so I’ll agree to knocking down expectations to single-digit rounds and calling it even.

Any pre-draft list of “fastest moving” potential draftees that doesn’t include Dakota Mekkes is one I’ll look at with a suspicious eye. Mekkes may not be one of the biggest names in college relief, but he’s one of the best. I’ll go closer upside with him while acknowledging his most likely outcome could be a long career of very effective, very well-compensated middle relief. Either way, I think he’s as close to a lock to be a useful big league pitcher as any reliever in this class.

Hitters

Nebraska JR OF Ryan Boldt
Michigan JR 1B/LHP Carmen Benedetti
Ohio State JR OF Ronnie Dawson
Ohio State JR OF Troy Montgomery
Illinois SR C Jason Goldstein
Michigan JR C Harrison Wenson
Michigan State JR 2B Jordan Zimmerman
Maryland JR C/1B Nick Cieri
Minnesota JR C Austin Athmann
Indiana JR OF Craig Dedelow
Illinois rJR SS/2B Adam Walton
Iowa SR OF Joel Booker
Ohio State rSR 3B Nick Sergakis
Michigan JR OF Johnny Slater
Michigan rSR OF Matt Ramsay
Nebraska SR 2B/SS Jake Placzek
Indiana SR 3B Brian Wilhite
Ohio State JR C Jalen Washington
Maryland JR OF Madison Nickens
Purdue SR OF/RHP Kyle Johnson
Maryland SR OF Anthony Papio
Ohio State rJR OF/1B Jake Bosiokovic
Purdue rSR 1B/LHP Kyle Wood
Nebraska JR 1B/LHP Ben Miller
Rutgers JR OF Mike Carter
Iowa JR 2B/3B Mason McCoy
Iowa SR C Daniel Aaron Moriel
Penn State JR OF Nick Riotto
Minnesota SR OF Dan Motl
Penn State rSR OF Greg Guers
Rutgers JR OF Tom Marcinczyk
Ohio State SR 1B/OF Zach Ratcliff
Ohio State SR OF/LHP Daulton Mosbarger
Rutgers rSR 3B/1B Chris Suseck
Illinois JR OF/1B Pat McInerney
Indiana JR OF Alex Krupa
Indiana JR 2B Tony Butler
Minnesota rJR OF/C Matt Stemper
Nebraska SR C Taylor Fish
Northwestern SR 1B/OF Zach Jones
Ohio State SR 3B/1B Troy Kuhn
Iowa SR SS/RHP Nick Roscetti
Minnesota SR 2B/SS Connor Schaefbauer
Michigan State SR 3B/SS Justin Hovis
Penn State SR OF James Coates
Penn State rJR 3B Christian Helsel
Nebraska JR 2B Jake Schleppenbach
Michigan JR SS Michael Brdar
Indiana SR SS/2B Nick Ramos

Pitchers

Maryland JR RHP Mike Shawaryn
Illinois JR RHP Cody Sedlock
Michigan State rJR LHP Cameron Vieaux
Indiana rJR RHP Jake Kelzer
Michigan JR LHP Brett Adcock
Minnesota SR LHP Dalton Sawyer
Iowa SR RHP/1B Tyler Peyton
Michigan SR LHP Evan Hill
Illinois SR RHP Nick Blackburn
Michigan State rSO RHP Dakota Mekkes
Maryland SR RHP Jared Price
Indiana JR RHP Luke Stephenson
Indiana rJR RHP Thomas Belcher
Maryland JR LHP Tayler Stiles
Maryland rSO RHP Ryan Selmer
Indiana SR RHP Evan Bell
Indiana SR LHP Caleb Baragar
Michigan JR RHP Mac Lozer
Illinois SR LHP JD Nielsen
Michigan State JR RHP Walter Borkovich
Michigan State JR LHP Joe Mockbee
Maryland SR LHP Robert Galligan
Indiana rSR LHP Kyle Hart
Michigan State rSO RHP Ethan Landon
Iowa SR RHP Tyler Radtke
Minnesota JR RHP Toby Anderson
Michigan State rSO RHP Jake Lowery
Nebraska SR RHP Colton Howell
Nebraska JR RHP Derek Burkamper
Ohio State rJR RHP Shea Murray
Nebraska JR LHP Max Knutson
Minnesota JR RHP/OF Matt Fiedler
Nebraska JR RHP Jake Hohensee
Purdue JR RHP Matt Frawley
Ohio State JR LHP/OF Tanner Tully
Iowa rJR LHP Ryan Erickson
Nebraska SR RHP Jeff Chesnut
Indiana rSO LHP Austin Foote
Iowa SR RHP Calvin Mathews
Indiana JR LHP Sullivan Stadler
Iowa rSO RHP CJ Eldred
Minnesota rSR LHP Jordan Jess
Maryland JR RHP Mike Rescigno
Indiana rJR RHP Kent Williams
Indiana SR LHP Will Coursen-Carr
Minnesota JR RHP Cody Campbell
Michigan JR RHP Keith Lehmann
Michigan JR RHP/OF Jackson Lamb
Ohio State SR RHP Jake Post
Penn State SR LHP Nick Hedge
Purdue rSR RHP Gavin Downs
Michigan JR RHP/SS Hector Gutierrez
Northwestern SR LHP Jake Stolley
Ohio State rSO RHP Adam Niemeyer
Ohio State rSR LHP Michael Horejsei
Ohio State SR LHP John Havird
Purdue JR RHP Alex Lyons
Northwestern JR RHP Josh Davis
Northwestern SR LHP Reed Mason
Purdue rSR RHP Shane Bryant

Illinois

SR RHP Nick Blackburn (2016)
JR RHP Cody Sedlock (2016)
SR LHP JD Nielsen (2016)
rSR RHP Andrew Mamlic (2016)
rSR RHP Charlie Naso (2016)
SR C Jason Goldstein (2016)
rJR SS/2B Adam Walton (2016)
JR OF/1B Pat McInerney (2016)
JR 1B/OF Matthew James (2016)
SR 2B Michael Hurwitz (2016)
FR RHP/1B Luke Shilling (2018)
FR RHP Brendan Meissner (2018)
FR 3B/OF Brenden Spillane (2018)
FR OF Doran Turchin (2018)
FR INF Jalin McMillan (2018)

High Priority Follows: Nick Blackburn, Cody Sedlock, JD Nielsen, Andrew Mamlic, Charlie Naso, Jason Goldstein, Adam Walton, Pat McInerney, Matthew James

Indiana

rJR RHP Jake Kelzer (2016)
rSR LHP Kyle Hart (2016)
rJR RHP Thomas Belcher (2016)
SR RHP Evan Bell (2016)
SR LHP Caleb Baragar (2016)
SR LHP Will Coursen-Carr (2016)
rJR RHP Kent Williams (2016)
JR LHP Sullivan Stadler (2016)
rSO LHP Austin Foote (2016)
JR RHP Luke Stephenson (2016)
JR OF Craig Dedelow (2016)
SR SS/2B Nick Ramos (2016)
JR OF Alex Krupa (2016)
JR 2B Tony Butler (2016)
JR 1B/SS Austin Cangelosi (2016)
SR 3B Brian Wilhite (2016)
SO RHP Brian Hobbie (2017)
SO OF Logan Sowers (2017)
SO 3B Isaiah Pasteur (2017)
SO OF Laren Eustace (2017)
FR RHP Jonathan Stiever (2018)
FR RHP Chandler Sedat (2018)
FR INF Luke Miller (2018)
FR C Ryan Fineman (2018)

High Priority Follows: Jake Kelzer, Kyle Hart, Thomas Belcher, Evan Bell, Caleb Baragar, Will Cousen-Carr, Kent Williams, Sullivan Stadler, Austin Foote, Luke Stephenson, Craig Dedelow, Nick Ramos, Alex Krupa, Tony Butler, Austin Cangelosi, Brian Wilhite

Iowa

SR RHP/1B Tyler Peyton (2016)
SR RHP Calvin Mathews (2016)
rJR LHP Ryan Erickson (2016)
rSO RHP CJ Eldred (2016)
SR RHP Tyler Radtke (2016)
SR RHP Luke Vandermaten (2016)
rJR RHP/SS Josh Martsching (2016)
SR OF Joel Booker (2016)
JR 2B/3B Mason McCoy (2016)
SR SS/RHP Nick Roscetti (2016)
SR C Jimmy Frankos (2016)
SR C Daniel Aaron Moriel (2016)
SO RHP Nick Gallagher (2017)
SO 1B/3B Grant Klenovich (2017)
FR RHP Cole McDonald (2018)
FR RHP Shane Ritter (2018)
FR RHP Sammy Lizarraga (2018)
FR RHP/SS Daniel Perry (2018)
FR RHP/2B Zach Daniels (2018)
FR OF Robert Neustrom (2018)
FR OF Luke Farley (2018)
FR 2B Mitch Boe (2018)

High Priority Follows: Tyler Peyton, Calvin Mathews, Ryan Erickson, CJ Eldred, Tyler Radtke, Joel Booker, Mason McCoy, Nick Roscetti, Daniel Aaron Moriel

Maryland

JR RHP Mike Shawaryn (2016)
JR LHP Tayler Stiles (2016)
SR LHP Robert Galligan (2016)
SR RHP Jared Price (2016)
JR RHP Mike Rescigno (2016)
rSO RHP Ryan Selmer (2016)
JR C/1B Nick Cieri (2016)
SR OF Anthony Papio (2016)
JR OF Madison Nickens (2016)
SO RHP Brian Shaffer (2017)
SO RHP Taylor Bloom (2017)
rFR RHP Tyler Brandon (2017)
SO SS Kevin Smith (2017)
SO C Justin Morris (2017)
SO OF Zach Jancarski (2017)
SO OF Kengo Kawahara (2017)
SO OF Jamal Wade (2017)
rFR 2B/SS Andrew Bechtold (2017)
FR RHP John Murphy (2018)
FR LHP Andrew Miller (2018)
FR RHP Hunter Parsons (2018)
FR RHP Cameron Enck (2018)
FR LHP Zach Guth (2018)
FR RHP Truman Thomas (2018)
FR OF Marty Costes (2018)
FR 2B/OF Nick Dunn (2018)
FR SS AJ Lee (2018)
FR OF/1B Nick Browne (2018)

High Priority Follows: Mike Shawaryn, Tayler Stiles, Robert Galligan, Jared Price, Mike Rescigno, Ryan Selmer, Nick Cieri, Anthony Papio, Madison Nickens

Michigan

JR LHP Brett Adcock (2016)
SR LHP Evan Hill (2016)
JR RHP Mac Lozer (2016)
JR RHP Keith Lehmann (2016)
JR RHP/SS Hector Gutierrez (2016)
JR RHP/OF Jackson Lamb (2016)
JR LHP/1B Carmen Benedetti (2016)
JR OF Johnny Slater (2016)
JR C Harrison Wenson (2016)
JR SS Michael Brdar (2016)
rSR OF Matt Ramsay (2016)
SR OF Cody Bruder (2016)
SO RHP Ryan Nutof (2017)
SO RHP Bryan Pall (2017)
SO LHP Oliver Jaskie (2017)
SO RHP Jayce Vancena (2017)
rFR LHP Grant Reuss (2017)
SO LHP Michael Hendrickson (2017)
SO C/3B Drew Lugbauer (2017)
SO SS/2B Jake Bivens (2017)
FR LHP/OF William Tribucher (2018)
FR RHP Troy Miller (2018)
FR OF Jonathan Engelmann (2018)
FR 2B Ako Thomas (2018)

High Priority Follows: Brett Adcock, Evan Hill, Mac Lozer, Keith Lehmann, Hector Gutierrez, Jackson Lamb, Carmen Benedetti, Johnny Slater, Harrison Wenson, Michael Brdar, Matt Ramsay

Michigan State

rJR LHP Cameron Vieaux (2016)
rSO RHP Dakota Mekkes (2016)
rSO RHP Ethan Landon (2016)
JR RHP Walter Borkovich (2016)
JR LHP Joe Mockbee (2016)
rSO RHP Jake Lowery (2016)
SR OF/2B Kris Simonton (2016)
JR 2B Jordan Zimmerman (2016)
SR 3B/SS Justin Hovis (2016)
rSO C Chad Roskelly (2016)
SO LHP Keegan Baar (2017)
SO RHP Andrew Gonzalez (2017)
SO LHP/1B Alex Troop (2017)
SO OF/LHP Brandon Hughes (2017)
SO 1B Zack McGuire (2017)
FR SS Royce Ando (2018)
FR 3B Marty Bechina (2018)

High Priority Follows: Cameron Vieaux, Dakota Mekkes, Ethan Landon, Walter Borkovich, Joe Mockbee, Jake Lowery, Kris Simonton, Jordan Zimmerman, Justin Hovis

Minnesota

SR LHP Dalton Sawyer (2016)
JR RHP Toby Anderson (2016)
rSR LHP Jordan Jess (2016)
rSR RHP Ty McDevitt (2016)
JR RHP Cody Campbell (2016)
JR RHP Brian Glowicki (2016)
rJR RHP Tim Shannon (2016)
JR RHP/1B Tyler Hanson (2016)
JR RHP/OF Matt Fiedler (2016)
JR C Austin Athmann (2016)
SR 2B/SS Connor Schaefbauer (2016)
SR OF Dan Motl (2016)
rJR OF/C Matt Stemper (2016)
rJR C/OF Troy Traxler (2016)
rJR OF Jordan Smith (2016)
SO LHP Lucas Gilbreath (2017)
SO RHP Reggie Meyer (2017)
SO OF Alex Boxwell (2017)
SO 1B/C Toby Hanson (2017)
SO 3B Micah Coffey (2017)
FR RHP Ben Humbert (2018)
FR INF Terrin Vavra (2018)

High Priority Follows: Dalton Sawyer, Toby Anderson, Jordan Jess, Cody Campbell, Matt Fiedler, Austin Athmann, Connor Schaefbauer, Dan Motl, Matt Stemper

Nebraska

JR LHP Max Knutson (2016)
SR RHP Colton Howell (2016)
SR RHP Jeff Chesnut (2016)
JR RHP Derek Burkamper (2016)
JR RHP Jake Hohensee (2016)
JR 1B/LHP Ben Miller (2016)
JR OF Ryan Boldt (2016)
SR 2B/SS Jake Placzek (2016)
SR C Taylor Fish (2016)
JR 2B Jake Schleppenbach (2016)
rSR SS Steven Reveles (2016)
SO RHP Zack Engelken (2017)
SO RHP Garett King (2017)
SO LHP/OF Jake Meyers (2017)
SO 1B/3B Scott Schreiber (2017)
SO OF Elijah Dilday (2017)
SO OF/3B Luis Alvarado (2017)
FR RHP Chad Luensmann (2018)
FR RHP Sean Chandler (2018)
FR RHP Matt Waldron (2018)
FR LHP Ryan Connolly (2018)
FR INF Alex Henwood (2018)
FR C Jesse Wilkening (2018)

High Priority Follows: Max Knutson, Colton Howell, Jeff Chesnut, Derek Burkamper, Jake Hohensee, Ben Miller, Ryan Boldt, Jake Placzek, Taylor Fish, Jake Schleppenbach

Northwestern

JR RHP Josh Davis (2016)
SR LHP Reed Mason (2016)
SR LHP Jake Stolley (2016)
JR RHP Joe Schindler (2016)
JR RHP Pete Hofman (2016)
JR OF/LHP Matt Hopfner (2016)
SR 1B/OF Zach Jones (2016)
SR 3B/OF Jake Schieber (2016)
JR OF/C Joe Hoscheit (2016)
rJR OF RJ Watters (2016)
SO RHP Justin Yoss (2017)
SO RHP Tommy Bordignon (2017)
FR 1B Willie Bourbon (2018)
FR SS Jack Dunn (2018)

High Priority Follows: Josh Davis, Reed Mason, Jake Stolley, Joe Schindler, Zach Jones

Ohio State

rJR RHP Shea Murray (2016)
SR RHP Jake Post (2016)
SR LHP John Havird (2016)
rSR LHP Michael Horejsei (2016)
rSO RHP Adam Niemeyer (2016)
rSO RHP Kyle Michalik (2016)
JR LHP/OF Tanner Tully (2016)
rSO RHP/1B Curtiss Irving (2016)
SR OF/LHP Daulton Mosbarger (2016)
JR OF Ronnie Dawson (2016)
JR OF Troy Montgomery (2016)
SR 1B/OF Zach Ratcliff (2016)
rJR OF/1B Jake Bosiokovic (2016)
SR 3B/1B Troy Kuhn (2016)
SR 3B Craig Nennig (2016)
rSR 3B Nick Sergakis (2016)
rSR 1B/3B Ryan Leffel (2016)
SR 2B L Grant Davis (2016)
JR C Jalen Washington (2016)
SO RHP Seth Kinker (2017)
SO C Jordan McDonough (2017)
SO OF Tre’ Gantt (2017)
FR 3B Brady Cherry (2018)
FR RHP Ryan Feltner (2018)

High Priority Follows: Shea Murray, Jake Post, John Havird, Michael Horejsei, Adam Niemeyer, Tanner Tully, Daulton Mosbarger, Ronnie Dawson, Troy Montgomery, Zach Ratcliff, Jake Bosiokovic, Troy Kuhn, Craig Nennig, Nick Sergakis, Jalen Washington

Penn State

SR RHP Jack Anderson (2016)
SR LHP Nick Hedge (2016)
JR RHP Tom Mullin (2016)
SR RHP Jared Fagnano (2016)
JR OF Nick Riotto (2016)
rSR OF Greg Guers (2016)
SR OF James Coates (2016)
rJR 3B Christian Helsel (2016)
JR SS Jim Haley (2016)
SR 1B/3B Tyler Kendall (2016)
SO RHP Nick Distasio (2017)
SO RHP Sal Biasi (2017)
SO LHP Taylor Lehman (2017)
FR RHP Justin Hagenman (2018)
FR RHP Eli Nabholz (2018)
FR LHP Blake Hodgens (2018)
FR C Ryan Sloniger (2018)
FR 3B/SS Conlin Hughes (2018)
FR 2B Connor Klemann (2018)
FR OF Austin Riggins (2018)
FR 3B Willie Burger (2018)

High Priority Follows: Nick Hedge, Tom Mullin, Nick Riotto, Greg Guers, Christian Helsel

Purdue

rSR RHP Gavin Downs (2016)
rSR RHP Shane Bryant (2016)
JR RHP Matt Frawley (2016)
JR RHP Alex Lyons (2016)
rSR 1B/LHP Kyle Wood (2016)
SR OF/RHP Kyle Johnson (2016)
JR 2B/C Cody Strong (2016)
SR C/OF Jack Picchiotti (2016)
rSR OF/2B Brett Carlson (2016)
SO RHP Tanner Andrews (2017)
SO SS/2B Harry Shipley (2017)
SO OF Alec Olund (2017)
FR LHP Kyle Ostrowski (2018)
FR 3B Jackson McGowan (2018)
FR C/OF Nick Dalesandro (2018)

High Priority Follows: Gavin Downs, Shane Bryant, Matt Frawley, Alex Lyons, Kyle Wood, Kyle Johnson, Jack Picchiotti

Rutgers

SR LHP Howie Brey (2016)
rJR LHP Max Herrmann (2016)
rJR RHP Kevin Baxter (2016)
JR LHP Ryan Fleming (2016)
rJR RHP Kyle Driscoll (2016)
JR RHP Colin Bohnert (2016)
JR RHP/2B Gaby Rosa (2016)
JR SS/RHP Christian Campbell (2016)
rSR 3B/1B Chris Suseck (2016)
SR 3B/C RJ Devish (2016)
JR C/1B Chris Folinusz (2016)
JR OF Mike Carter (2016)
JR OF Tom Marcinczyk (2016)
rSR 2B/SS John Jennings (2016)
SO RHP John O’Reilly (2017)
SO RHP Ryan Wares (2017)
SO INF Kyle Walker (2017)
SO 3B Milo Freeman (2017)
FR OF Jawuan Harris (2018)
FR 3B Serafino Brito (2018)

High Priority Follows: Max Herrmann, Chris Suseck, Mike Carter, Tom Marcinczyk, John Jennings

2016 MLB Draft – GB%

6 Apr 2016 6:00 AM / 5 Comments on 2016 MLB Draft – GB5

It’s finally time for first edition of the MLB Draft Pitching Prospect GB% Index or: The Post You Make When Too Busy Driving Sixty Miles to See the Last Two Innings of Jay Groome’s 2016 Debut to Write a Few Thousand Words Otherwise. There’s more to life than keeping the ball down and getting outs on the ground, but I still think it’s interesting data to track as it provides a hint as to what type of pitcher stylistically each guy will be as a professional. Here’s what I’ve got so far…don’t read anything into the order.

Virginia RHP Connor Jones – 63.53%
Florida LHP AJ Puk – 36.73%
Oklahoma RHP Alec Hansen – 48.48%
Mississippi State RHP Dakota Hudson – 70.37%
Cal RHP Daulton Jefferies – 52.63%
Florida RHP Logan Shore – 51.47%
Winthrop LHP Matt Crohan – 34.48%
Kent State LHP Eric Lauer – 46.58%
Vanderbilt RHP Jordan Sheffield – 50.00%
Connecticut LHP Anthony Kay – 51.19%
Rice RHP Jon Duplantier – 60.49%

I wanted to include the Oregon rotation and Robert Tyler, but the box scores were a nightmare at those team sites. I think getting info on Krook and Tyler is important, so I’ll try to figure something out when I’m feeling a bit more motivated.

As for the actual data above, I’d say that Hudson’s number is eye-opening and wholly consistent with the kind of stuff he throws. Are we sure he isn’t the best college pitching prospect in the country? Crohan’s number could be considered noteworthy for teams that preach keeping the ball in the dirt, though any batted ball analysis by a big league front office would (hopefully) include more than just the difference between a ground ball out and an out recorded via the air. Take AJ Puk, for example. His number is low, but it doesn’t account for the relatively high number of infield pop-ups and weak fly balls that I’ve seen whenever I’ve watched him. It should also be noted that Crohan has pitched far less than the rest of the names on the list, so an already small sample gets even smaller. It’s all just something extra to consider when thinking about these pitchers anyway.

Who am I missing here? I’m happy to add a few more names to the list to track between now and June.

Early April College Hitting Update

4 Apr 2016 7:00 AM / Leave a comment

It’s Monday and I’m behind on some of the conference “preview” stuff I want to publish, so let’s take a quick look instead at some of the country’s top college hitters so far in 2016. There are an infinite number of ways to approach a topic like this, so I tried to make things easy on myself by coming up with some rules to make it manageable.

First, I used college stats from Friday to sort players into categories. That gave me a one-stop shop for all my stat needs, but it necessitated a look at individual team sites last night to update the numbers to get the most recent information. That’s why you’ll see some inconsistencies between the categories and the stats of the players found under each. Secondly, I decided to focus only on draft-eligible players. That eliminated most sophomores and all freshmen. Those guys will get their fair shake in the years to come. Finally, in what may seem like a direct contradiction to the above at first, I made the cruel executive decision to skip seniors for now. I promise that they’ll get their due in an exercise similar to this closer to the draft, but for now I wanted to hone in on the players seen as better prospects by the majority. I love me a good senior-sign, but that extra year of experience gives them a bit of an unfair statistical boost. So only juniors and draft-eligible sophomores for now.

OBP over .500 and SLG over .700

C/1B Jameson Fisher (Southeastern Louisiana) – .521/.626/.872 with 25 BB/10 K and 6/11 SB in 94 AB
C/1B Zack Collins (Miami) – .416/.581/.688 – with 34 BB/16 K in 77 AB
OF Kyle Lewis (Mercer) – .426/.555/.843 – with 33 BB/17 K and 4/7 SB in 108 AB
OF Adam Groesbeck (Air Force) – .447/.520/.671 with 11 BB/8 K and 12/14 SB in 85 AB
C Logan Ice (Oregon State) – .389/.495/.792 with 14 BB/3 K and 1/1 SB in 72 AB
C Brett Cumberland (California) – .425/.552/.904 with 15 BB/18 K and 3/3 SB in 73 AB
OF Anfernee Grier (Auburn) – .442/.535/.692 with 19 BB/23 K and 14/17 SB in 120 AB
OF Tyler Ramirez (North Carolina) – .394/.508/.670 with 22 BB/21 K and 6/9 SB in 94 AB
1B Dre Gleason (Austin Peay) – .390/.487/.680 with 17 BB/24 K in 100 AB

This is the category you want to be in as a hitter. It’s a spin-off of the .600+ SLG and BB> K group I had last year. On-base skills plus power potential equals big money come draft day. Tools will always matter, but results like the ones these players are putting up will get your foot in the door even if some scouts are dubious about other aspects of your game. Luckily, many of the names on this list are likely very familiar as big-time draft prospects who combine stellar performances with big league caliber tool sets.

I’m not sure anybody doubted Jameson Fisher’s bat coming into this season, but just in case he’s gone out and picked up where he left off in his last healthy season (2014)…and then some. We’re talking a 100 AB or so sample for all of the players listed, so let’s get that caveat out of the way right now. Still, Fisher’s start to the season has been positively Bonds-ian. I haven’t heard anything about his defense this season, but I do know scouts will want to see him behind the plate a little bit more before confidently projecting him as a pro-caliber defender. If he keeps hitting like he has, however, he might get himself into the top few round conversation much like the player one spot below him on the list. I still think Zack Collins is a catcher and I still think he should be talked about as a potential option for the Phillies at 1-1. Same thing with Kyle Lewis, minus the whole catching thing.

Adam Groesbeck, known more for his speed than his potent power/patience blend coming the season, has to be in the top ten round mix at this point. Logan Ice and Brett Cumberland are Pac-12 catchers with top two round bonafides. This class and catchers, man. It’s really unbelievable. Anfernee Grier has gotten some first round buzz of late and while I’m not sure I’d go that high on him yet, he’s certainly holding up his end of the bargain here in 2016. Tyler Ramirez could get dinged some by being an undersized tweener, but teams that believe in him in center should like the all-around offensive profile that comes with it. I don’t have much of a read on what those outside my own bubble think of Dre Gleason. I could see him as a surprising inclusion in the latter half of the draft’s single-digit rounds or being a mid- to late-round pick that winds up going back to school in an attempt to raise his stock as a 2017 senior-sign. I don’t know if teams are buying his bat as real just yet; hopefully he keeps hitting and quiets the doubters.

If we tease out the members who lost their spot over the weekend, we’re left with just three players currently in the .500/.700 club: Jameson Fisher, Kyle Lewis, and Brett Cumberland. Not a bad trio.

OBP over .500

2B Nick Solak (Louisville) – .455/.564/.623 with 19 BB/8 K and 7/8 SB in 77 AB
1B Carmen Benedetti (Michigan) – .372/.526/.570 with 24 BB/11 K and 6/7 SB in 86 AB
3B Sheldon Neuse (Oklahoma) – .392/.500/.686 with 22 BB/22 K and 8/8 SB in 102 AB
2B Cavan Biggio (Notre Dame) – .330/.527/.516 with 34 BB/14 K and 8/8 SB in 91 AB
2B/3B Nick Senzel (Tennessee) – .384/.504/.646 with 24 BB/12 K and 10/11 SB in 99 AB

Nick Solak can flat hit. I’d take him on my team anytime. He’s likely locked in at second in the infield, so I don’t know how high that profile can rise but I have a hunch he’ll be higher on my rankings than he winds up getting drafted in June. I’m more than all right with that. I have a hunch that Carmen Benedetti will go out as a pitcher in pro ball, but I like his bat too much to put it on ice. I like letting two-way players with split-decision futures start as hitters with pitching as a fallback rather than the other way around. Personal preference, obviously, but I think it’s easier to pick pitching back up on the fly. Sheldon Neuse is a deep fly or two away from being in the .500/.700 club. A lot has gone wrong for Oklahoma prospects this year, but Neuse has taken a step forward both at the plate and in the field. I think he’s solidly in the second round mix. Same for Cavan Biggio, the top-ranked college hitter on my way too early 2016 college preview back from March 2015. He was one spot ahead of Neuse. Before I start patting myself on the back too hard — something I really shouldn’t be doing in the first place considering that Biggio and Neuse, much as I love both, aren’t on anybody’s board as the top two college hitters — the next three hitters were Ryan Boldt, Nick Banks, and Chris Okey. Win some, lose some. Nick Senzel has been doing a lot of winning of late. I don’t know if Baseball America’s infatuation with him is more about them or about what they are hearing from big league front offices (my guess is the former in this case), but either way he’s a damn fine player and a legitimate top ten type. I’ve taken to comparing him to Anthony Rendon. That’s pretty special.

SLG over .700

OF Heath Quinn (Samford) – .330/.455/.679 with 22 BB/27 K

Like Neuse just missing the cutoff for .500/.700 by a few bombs, Quinn came into the weekend in need of just a few extra trips to first base (or any other base for that matter) to push his OBP over .500. Along the way his slugging dipped below the .700 line, but we’ll still count it since I used Friday’s numbers to originally sort (through the NCAA stats page) despite displaying stats as of the end of the weekend (via the more quickly updated team sites). Quinn is a physical 6-3, 220 pound outfielder with speed, power, and a solid approach. I’ve heard some speculate that he’s hurt some by the overwhelming presence of Kyle Lewis in his conference, but I think that’s nuts. There’s plenty of scouting love to go around, and the more general exposure the SoCon gets, the better it is for every team and every player.

2016 MLB Draft Mock Draft – Fantasy Baseball

3 Apr 2016 8:00 AM / 1 Comment on 2016 MLB Draft Mock Draft – Fantasy Baseball

So until then (or not) we’ll have some fun and take the idea of a mock draft to the logical extreme. If “mock” means to make something seem laughably unreal or impossible, let’s make our mock draft as unreal or impossible as we can. Our third edition of this 2016 MLB Mock Draft is based on fantasy value. Fantasy baseball is HUGE, like it or not. I play it largely because it’s become a means of staying close to a group of friends who share a common love (baseball), something that becomes increasingly difficult once you reach a certain age. Were it not for that reason, I’m not sure I’d still do it. I mention that not to be one of those too cool for school fantasy haters, but because I want it to be clear that I’m terrible at fantasy sports. I try to not be terrible, yet every season the Big Hurters are sitting in the bottom half of the standings. So, take the fantasy analysis here with all the skepticism you can muster.

Before we get into the picks, a few words about how our league operates…because there’s nothing more compelling to read about than other people’s fantasy teams. We’re a keeper league that allows each owner to retain up to eight big league players season to season. We also have shallow minor league systems of four players for each team. Categories are a mix of standard stuff that I hate but are necessary evils (wins, ERA, RBI) and analytical standards like OBP (instead of BA) and…actually I think that might be it. That’s fantasy for you, I guess.

I wasn’t sure how this mock would work out, but I think it winds up making a bit of sense. I enjoyed how attempting to create a board for a fantasy league with limited minor league keepers (four in our case) reflected the balance of upside and certainty that is such a big part of the real MLB Draft each year. You want the best possible player, obviously, but do you want to wait upwards of five years to reap the benefits? You might not be friends with your fellow owners by then! My own brother left the league this past year! With the real draft, any long-term pick like that has to be made with the acknowledgment that the person doing the picking might not hold the same job by the time the prospect turns into a player. On the other hand, if you go with more of a quick-moving “sure thing,” then, fine, maybe you get what you were expecting…but what you were expecting was a competent yet wholly unexciting big league player. That guy holds far more value in real life than fantasy so the comparison begins to show some cracks here, but drafting for star impact, especially with a top ten pick, is something that I believe bad teams need to be willing to do. I think the risk/reward balance is well-represented here, though your mileage might vary.

So, again, this isn’t a “real” mock draft, whatever that is. It’s a mock draft forcing big league teams to keep long-term fantasy implications in mind. Here we go…

1 – Philadelphia Phillies – LHP Jay Groome (Barnegat HS, New Jersey)

Risk gets thrown out the window when the reward is the closest thing to a future number one starting pitcher in this class. Working in Jay Groome’s favor is how advanced he is for a teenager. Unlike with many high school prospects, the expectation of a five year (give or take) waiting period does not apply. A big league cameo in September 2019 a month after turning 21-years-old is in play. Whether we’re talking fantasy or real life, nobody has to be told how rare true big league ace upside is. Adding Groome to the Phillies sudden — love how only in a baseball rebuild could eighteen months or so be considered sudden — pitching surplus would give them a potential difference-maker to pair with their otherwise more good than great (yet plentiful) collection of young hurlers.

2 – Cincinnati Reds – OF Corey Ray (Louisville)

I’m terrible at fantasy for a lot of reasons, but one flaw of mine that puts me at or near the bottom each year is my unique talent for completely ignoring certain categories. Drafting a player like Ben Revere fifteen rounds earlier than his overall talent level deserves just for the steals feels so dirty to me. I just can’t bring myself to do it. Corey Ray would be the kind of prospect who would help a dope like me salvage the steals category because he’s a damn good ballplayer who happens to rack up steals rather than a one-tool type who specializes in speed. A Winker-Hamilton-Ray outfield would give you a little bit of everything: speed, pop, speed, defense, speed, speed, patience, and speed. Bonus points for Louisville actually being just about as close to Cincinnati as Barnegat HS is to Philadelphia.

3 – Atlanta Braves – C Zack Collins (Miami)

Those two picks were easy. Now it’s truly anybody’s game. Collins has massive power, outstanding plate discipline, and enough defensive talent to (at minimum) follow the Kyle Schwarber “catch just enough to maintain fantasy eligibility behind the plate” early big league career path. Collins could catch for the Braves or force an eventual Freddie Freeman blockbuster trade out of town. Win-win!

4 – Colorado Rockies – 2B/3B Nick Senzel (Tennessee)

Power, speed, patience, and potential positional versatility make Senzel a surprisingly easy pick here. Considering I personally decided to keep Anthony Rendon, I support an early minor league selection of the prospect who reminds me of the current Nationals star. Meanwhile the Rockies can continue their recent trend of loading up on quality infielders like Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Forrest Wall, Ryan McMahon, Tyler Nevin, and Brendan Rodgers. I don’t know how that future infield would shake out in time, but I’m fairly certain it would wind up as one of the league’s best.

5 – Milwaukee Brewers – OF Bryan Reynolds (Vanderbilt)

This one even took me back me a little bit, I won’t lie. You’d think the guy controlling all the picks wouldn’t be surprised by what transpires in his draft, but the brain works in mysterious ways. This is also the point where I remind everybody that this is a weird theme mock draft and not a representation of what I would necessarily do. Reynolds over personal favorite Kyle Lewis pains me, but that little edge in playable speed on the base paths makes Reynolds the more appealing fantasy target. Plus, if we’re trying to make this even more representative of what might go down in a real fantasy draft, the national cache that being a Vanderbilt product brings gets Reynolds a boost, especially when compared to Lewis’s Mercer background. That’s not me talking, that’s the common fantasy fan! The “hey, I’ve heard of him” phenomenon with prospects is very real. Score one for Dansby Swanson, Sonny Gray, David Price, and the SEC Network. I love how the Brewers have drafted outfielders in recent years, swinging for the fences with high upside talents like Trent Clark, Monte Harrison, and Demi Orimoloye. Adding Reynolds to that mix along with Brett Phillips, Clint Coulter, and Michael Reed would give them plenty of options going forward.

6 – Oakland Athletics – 1B Will Craig (Wake Forest)

I’ve been calling Will Craig the next AJ Reed for a while now. AJ Reed went way, way too early in the big league portion of our fantasy draft last night. That tells me two things: 1) somebody in our league massively overrated the impact that AJ Reed will make on the big leagues this year, especially early on (i.e., stashing any minor league player on your bench for as long as Reed is expected to be in the minors is a tough pill to swallow), and 2) we, as a league, will respond to “missing” on Reed in the minor league acquisition phase last year by massively overrating a player one draft site once called “the next AJ Reed.” It’s also worth pointing out for context’s sake that quality first basemen tend to be held on to forever in this league. There are no Goldschmidt’s, Rizzo’s, Votto’s, Abreu’s, or Cabrera’s to be found on draft day here. Big bats are always needed and Craig has one of the biggest in this class. And a masher like Craig could bring back some of the old school power and patience days that the A’s were known for not too long ago.

7 – Miami Marlins – OF Kyle Lewis (Mercer)

I think I want this to happen just to see Kyle Lewis and Giancarlo Stanton hanging out in the outfield corners in Miami together. I’m certain they’d be friends in short order. Like many players picked already, Lewis brings serious thump and enough on-base skills to be a solid long-term fantasy keeper. The scary thing about Lewis is that as good as he’s been the past calendar year, it’s clear to anybody who has seen him that his star is still ascending. That’s rare for a college junior. For the purpose of our very specific and silly exercise, he’s helped somewhat by our league foolishly eliminating the CF distinction from the outfield group; where there was once a need for every team to start a CF, now all outfield positions are counted as one. Lewis’s fantasy stock takes a small hit due to the lack of steals on his résumé, but, hey, nobody’s perfect.

8 – San Diego Padres – 3B Nolan Jones (Holy Ghost Prep, Pennsylvania)

Though listed as a third baseman, Nolan Jones could be the type of special athlete good enough to stick at shortstop long enough to make fantasy owners happy. Many — myself included — have been quick to shift the powerful 6-5, 220 pounder to third in the pros, but that doesn’t guarantee anything. Shortstops who can hit and move like Jones are incredibly value in both real life and fantasy, but the third base spot in a keeper league like ours can be just as devoid as re-draft talent. The best third basemen on the board last night were Evan Longoria, Kyle Seager, and…Justin Turner? The undrafted Travis Shaw and Jake Lamb were next on my personal board. Bottom line is simple: if you can play the left side of the infield and do positive things offensively, you’re fantasy gold. Shameless brag/plus of the week: assuming the weather holds, I’m set to see Jones next week on Thursday and Saturday. Do I think that Jones could be sneaky competition to Jay Groome as a 1-1 possibility with local ties to the Phillies? Stay tuned!

9 – Detroit Tigers – OF Mickey Moniak (La Costa Canyon HS, California)

The Mickey Moniak vs Blake Rutherford debate sure to pick up steam as we get closer to June makes an appearance in this very mock. Moniak gets the win thanks to his fantasy-approved advantages in speed and on-base ability. The potential for a on-base monster who runs down balls in center and piles up steals is very real with Moniak. I enjoy Moniak so much as a prospect that I have a difficult time forming coherent thoughts around him. Here are a few sentences that I wrote but couldn’t tie together in a cohesive paragraph designed to describe how much Moniak as a hitter. He can literally hit the ball anywhere on the diamond with authority. Watching him pepper the whole field is an absolute treat for any fan of the game. His approach at the plate is better than all but the smallest number of college prospects three years his senior. The improvements he’s made from last summer to this spring are incredibly impressive; he’s become a more complete hitter and improved both his arm strength and accuracy of his throws. His hands work fast and his bat speed is the kind that sends a buzz through any scouting section. I’ll compose myself just enough to say that if Moniak does get to the Tigers in real life, he’ll very likely enter his first full season as the organization’s number one prospect, at least depending on how Beau Burrows throws in 2016 and whether or not Michael Fulmer sticks in the big leagues long enough.

10 – Chicago White Sox – SS Delvin Perez (International Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)

If I was really doing this right, Delvin Perez would be higher than ten. I obsess about amateur baseball and the MLB Draft all year long. That makes me (and maybe you, dear reader) part of a comically small minority of baseball fans. That means that most baseball fans only begin following the draft in the immediate days before and after the first players are off the board. Minor league prospect coverage (and interest) has blown up in my lifetime, but amateur ball is still very much a niche thing. Most baseball fans would draft for their minor league fantasy teams based on fairly limited information. The fact that Delvin Perez’s name has been mentioned in the same breath as Carlos Correa’s would give a fantasy owner more than enough ammo to overdraft this year’s top prep shortstop. So, yeah, ten would be a steal in this universe. Maybe even the real one, too. I had a tangent ready to go about the White Sox having a really bad run of shortstops in my lifetime, but upon closer inspection it hasn’t been that bad. Not great, but not horrible. Still, with apologies to Tim Anderson, Perez would stand to be Chicago’s best hope at shortstop in quite some time if this is the pick.

11 – Seattle Mariners – OF Blake Rutherford (Chaminade Prep HS, California)

At some point it’s prudent to move away from the safety of college hitters and roll the dice on one of the best high school athletes in the country. Blake Rutherford is just that. Him being older than ideal for a high school senior gives real MLB teams drafting in the top five something extra to consider, but it could work to his advantage developmentally in terms of fantasy. He’s a little bit older, a little bit more filled-out, and a little bit more equipped to deal with the daily rigors of professional ball than your typical high school prospect. That’s some extreme spin about one of Rutherford’s bigger red flags — admittedly one that is easily resolved within a scouting department: either his age matters or not since it’s not like it’s changing (except up by one day like us all) any time soon — but talking oneself into glossing over a weakness is exactly what fantasy drafting is all about. I like Rutherford more in this range in the real draft than in the mix at 1-1. The Seattle system is desperate for the kind of raw talent that Rutherford provides.

12 – Boston Red Sox – OF Buddy Reed (Florida)

I’m as fascinated by Buddy Reed as the next guy, but this would be a reach. Of the trio of college outfielders everybody liked to crash the top half of the first round party this June, the rangy Reed has done the least to impress in 2016. That doesn’t mean he’s been bad — he hasn’t been — but I think it’s safe to say he’s fallen clearly behind both Corey Ray and Kyle Lewis and potentially even further than that. There have been a lot of college outfielders (including one in Reed’s conference who should be off the board shortly) who have turned big tools into big production this spring that are now positioned to challenge Reed for third best college outfield prospect in the class. Still, Reed is a plus-plus runner with the athletic background that points to potential for as yet untapped upside with the bat. He doesn’t run quite like Billy Hamilton — a kept player in our league for what I have to assume are his steals and steals alone — because nobody runs quite like Billy Hamilton, but his realistic floor as a fantasy asset could be on that level. Even if the bat doesn’t come around, he could have enough speed and range in CF to get regular time in the big leagues. There’s no doubt that Peter Gammons would love the pick of a New England prep player turned college star in real life, so that’s good enough for me. The Gammons checklist for lifelong Twitter updates: 1) Does he have a New England connection in any way?, 2) Did he attend or consider attending North Carolina?, 3) Has he played on the Cape?, and 4) At any point in his life, has he owned any Red Sox paraphernalia?

13 – Tampa Bay Rays – 3B Josh Lowe (Pope HS, Georgia)

I know Mickey Moniak has the alliterative name thing going for him, but Josh Lowe is the closest thing to a Marvel-style super hero in this year’s high school class. What can’t he do? Three clear plus tools (power, arm, speed) with two sure to help in fantasy, stellar defense at the hot corner, elite athleticism, and the fallback option of taking his talents (90-95 FB, intriguing CU and SL) to the mound. Lowe has the raw talent to be one of the best third basemen in baseball. The Evan Longoria runs through 2038 — fine, I looked it up and it’s only 2022 guaranteed with a 2023 team option — so this would be a gamble on talent over necessity.

14 – Cleveland Indians – LHP AJ Puk (Florida)

At some point in the draft, name recognition wins out. AJ Puk’s connection to the 1-1 spot in the real MLB Draft has made him one of the handful of names familiar to any fan with a passing interest in prospecting. People know Puk, people like Puk, and people will gravitate to Puk on draft day. I’m not sure if I’d take him this high in this draft or the real one, but I do understand the appeal of a hard-throwing lefthander with size coming out of a major program. Perhaps the Indians would be better equipped with a conventional college arm like Puk than with whatever has gone down lately with Trevor Bauer. I’m sure there’s a lot there that the general public doesn’t know about, but it’s still surprising that they deemed him not quite good enough to crack their rotation this year. If that felt like a gratuitous mention of Bauer, it was. I’m contractually obligated to mention him every few weeks or else.

15 – Minnesota Twins – C Matt Thaiss (Virginia)

We count OBP rather than BA as a category in this league, so it’s likely that owners would take note of Matt Thaiss’s 17 BB/2 K start and file him away as somebody worth getting to know a bit more intimately. Catchers who get can get on base and flash serious power upside are fun. The Twins minor league system is a who’s who of college catchers from the past three or four drafts, so Thaiss would fit right in.

16 – Los Angeles Angels – OF Anfernee Grier (Auburn)

That power/speed combination is what everybody is looking for. Anfernee Grier has it. He’s got the chance to hit on top of a big league lineup for a long time. The Angels could pick me in this spot and it would still instantly be the most interesting prospect in the system.

17 – Houston Astros – RHP Riley Pint (St. Thomas Aquinas HS, Kansas)

A fantasy pick on a guy like Riley Pint is truly going all-in on upside. There have been a lot of challengers to his throne this spring, but Pint’s raw stuff is still the most impressive of any high school arm in this class. He’s the only prep prospect that I’m confident in putting future plus grades on three different pitches. Jay Groome, Ian Anderson, Alex Speas, Austin Bergner, and Forrest Whitley all could get there, but Pint’s already convinced me. He’s the singular most talented pitching prospect in the country. So why is listed as a mid-first round pick and not a slam dunk 1-1 here? If you’re reading this on your own volition — and I certainly hope there’s no crazed lunatic out there forcing random people to visit my site; that’s my job! — then you already know. Pint’s delivery has many of the smarter public talent evaluators concerned about how he’ll hold up pitching every fifth day. I’m less concerned about that because I’m fairly stubborn in my belief that there’s no such thing as “bad mechanics” since the mere act of throwing a baseball is bad and unnatural by definition. I’m just looking for a guy with athleticism who can repeat whatever he is doing on the mound consistently with an open-mindedness to receiving instruction and a willingness to adjust aspects of his craft as needed. I think Pint fits that bill. The one knock on the fire-balling righthander that I think could have some merit is the concern over his risk of injury going forward. Again, this isn’t something that I’m crazy with concern about — pitchers get hurt, so you have to be ready for that inevitability with any pitching prospect — but the idea that Pint’s most obvious selling point (100 MPH!) could also be his biggest red flag (too much velocity too soon) intrigues the heck out of me. That’s straight out of Shakespeare or The Twilight Zone or something. Red flags or not, Pint’s arm talent is unmistakable. He’s well worth a shot here and likely a whole heck of a lot higher. He’d be on my shortlist at 1-1 if I had a say.

18 – New York Yankees – RHP Cal Quantrill (Stanford)

The attrition at the top of the college pitching pile has left Cal Quantrill, yet to pitch in 2016 as he recovers from last year’s Tommy John surgery, one of the college game’s most intriguing mound prospects. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, right? I wonder if the star student out of Stanford knew this and staged the whole elbow injury to allow time for his competition to implode all over the place. That’s a joke. Not a good one, but a joke all the same.

19 – New York Mets – RHP Alec Hansen (Oklahoma)

The biggest current question mark in the college game has to be Alec Hansen. He’s steadily pitched his way from the 1-1 conversation to the top five to the top ten to potentially all the way out of the first round. I’m no doctor — just a man who loves him some unsourced speculation — but the dots that connect Hansen’s summer away from the mound (forearm tightness) to his dreadful 2016 start are enough to raise an eyebrow. Truthfully, disclosure of a potential injury might just be the best thing that could happen to his draft stock at this point. I’ve linked Hansen’s rise and (as it has turned out) fall to that of Michael Matuella’s from last year. Still think that’s likely how this all plays out come June, but we’ll see. A healthy Hansen with the right kind of professional coaching could front a rotation. That’s why this pick works sooner in fantasy than I think it would in real life. Upside, upside, upside. If it fails, you’re out of a minor league draft pick…and not a couple million bucks and the opportunity cost of landing an impact talent otherwise as if you were picking for real. The Mets making this pick in real life would be intriguing as hell. On one hand, gambling on a potential ace just when some of your other young pitchers are starting to get expensive could be a genius way to replenish what you’ve been building. On the other hand, a little more certainty than Hansen might be prudent since the core you’ve build is so good that supplementing it rather than replacing it should be the priority. Either way, this would be fun.

20 – Los Angeles Dodgers – LHP Matt Krook (Oregon)

The selection of Matt Krook continues to recent run on risky arms that could wind up as legitimate big league aces if everything works out. He’d be perfect for the Dodgers!

21 – Toronto Blue Jays – RHP Dakota Hudson (Missisippi State)

This feels too low for Dakota Hudson, but I think the casual fantasy fan in this scenario might still be sleeping on him a bit. The guy I’ve comped him to in the past, Taijuan Walker, was one of the kept big league players in our league, so I can’t imagine why the potential college version couldn’t get similar attention. Hudson is awesome. I think he’s in play for 1-1 in real life and on the shortlist for best college arm in the country. Toronto would run this pick up to the podium if that’s a thing that ever actually happened in real life.

22 – Pittsburgh Pirates – RHP Alex Speas (McEachern HS, Georgia)

Alex Speas has gotten a very reluctant comparison to Dwight Gooden from Perfect Game. I don’t know how much fantasy league players read Perfect Game since it’s almost entirely all amateur baseball talk with little to no pro coverage, but all it takes is one clever owner wanting a head’s up on the next generation of prospects to have a subscription and stumble across that particular post. Feel like seeing that makes Speas a damn-near automatic pick, right? I should reiterate that the comparison made was done so with the utmost respectful hesitation. Gooden was one of those scouting unicorns that was so special as a talent that it’ll forever be difficult to see him in anybody else. The fact that Speas even got that mention is a compelling enough case to draft him and wait out his (hopeful) rise to the big leagues. An organization known for their ability to transition talented throwers to successful pitchers would be as close to an ideal of a landing spot for Speas as possible.

23 – St. Louis Cardinals – SS Colby Woodmansee (Arizona State)

College shortstop? Check. High probability at staying up the middle as a pro? Check. Flashes of power and patience? Check. Colby Woodmansee hits all the fantasy checkpoints with the exception of any expectation of stolen bases. Shortstop just so happens to be a gigantic organizational hole for the Cardinals, so Woodmansee’s path to playing time would be free and clear. The objective part of my brain knows this isn’t true, but the amateur baseball loving side wonders if he wouldn’t represent the best current option in the organization at short in light of Jhonny Peralta’s thumb injury.

24 – San Diego Padres – OF Will Benson (The Westminster Schools, Georgia)

The name Will Benson brings about all kinds of colorful opinions from those paid to watch him regularly. To call him a divisive prospect at this point would be an understatement. If you love him, then you love his power upside, defensive aptitude, and overwhelming physicality. If you’re cool on him, then he’s more of a future first baseman with a questionable hit tool, inconsistent approach, and overrated athleticism. I’m closer to the love said than not, but I think both the lovers and the haters can at least agree that his bat speed is explosive, his frame is intriguing, and his sheer strength as a human being should beget some monstrous BP performances. He’d be the rare type of hitter who could make Petco look small.

25 – San Diego Padres – RHP Connor Jones (Virginia)

Connor Jones represents the best cross-section of upside and safety in this year’s college pitching class. Assuming non-catastrophic injury, I’d be stunned if he doesn’t wind up at least somewhere around a big league starter. That’s about where I’d put his reasonable upside as well: solid big league starting pitcher. There’s a chance for more, of course, due in large part to his dynamic one-two offspeed combo of an upper-80s splitter and a low- to mid-80s slider. I’ve comped him to Masahiro Tanaka at the highest of high ceiling projections, so, yeah, I like him. Future mid-rotation arms are tremendous real life assets, but fairly boring in fantasy land. That depresses his stock somewhat here, but the upside is still high enough to make him a fantasy first rounder. His high floor is exactly what could attract him to the Padres here as they’d have the chance to diversify their draft portfolio after nabbing a pair of high school prospects (Nolan Jones and Will Benson) earlier.

26 – Chicago White Sox – SS Bryson Brigman (San Diego)

All of the boxes checked by Woodmansee above apply to Bryson Brigman as well. I could easily see the two being flipped based on the personal preference of the owner doing the drafting. You’re trading off some raw power in return for a bigger threat on the bases. So if you’ve got a need for speed, Brigman would be the pick. There’s a chance that the White Sox just locked in their double-play combo for the next decade with this pick and the earlier selection of Delvin Perez.

27 – Baltimore Orioles – 3B Logan Gray (Austin Peay State)

All Logan Gray does is hit. There’s no point in me doubting him anymore. I’m sure there are scouts who don’t love every aspect of his swing or his bat speed or the way he circles the bases after hitting yet another home run, but at some point his extended run of hitting, hitting, and hitting some more has to matter. His athleticism and speed should translate to some steals (double-digits upside?) as he climbs the ladder and his power should play.

28 – Washington Nationals – 3B Carter Kieboom (Walton HS, Georgia)

Carter Kieboom is listed at third, but recent impressive defensive showings could allow him to remain at shortstop for the foreseeable future. If that’s the case, he could jump ten or more spots up these rankings because the bat is legit.

29 – Washington Nationals – 1B Pete Alonso (Florida)

This would be something of an overdraft, but you have to pay big if you want bats you can count on in fantasy. Pete Alonso is a good enough hitter that I think he’ll carve out a long-term big league role in some capacity before too long, possibly in a manner not unlike Preston Tucker has done with the Astros. Or something like that. I’m terrible at fantasy and only halfway decent at prospects, so I should really quit while I’m behind here.

30 – Texas Rangers – RHP Daulton Jefferies (California)

There’s nothing that really gets the blood flowing when it comes to Daulton Jefferies, but sometimes paying for certainty makes sense. That might directly contradict something I said in another pick, but nobody is reading all of these so we’re good. The older Jefferies comp to Walker Buehler, a big draft favorite last year, remains a good one. I can’t remember if it was Frankie Piliere or Aaron Fitt who came up with it, but I like it. Fastball-slider-change is a fine way to go through lineups.

31 – New York Mets – RHP Ian Anderson (Shenendehowa HS, New York)

A pre-season FAVORITE who has only gone on to bigger and better things in the interim, Ian Anderson can make a case for being the top prep righthander in this class. He’s one of the handful of young arms with the potential for three plus pitches — 88-94 fastball (95 peak), 77-80 breaking ball, and a 80-85 change — but what truly separates him from the pack is his ten years in the big league veteran command. Fantasy owners rightfully scared off by high school pitchers — so far from the big leagues with so much time to get hurt! — not named Groome and Pint would be wise to include Anderson in that big three on draft day. One scout friend of mine called Anderson a “more explosive Aaron Nola.” A little bit of upside (or a lot), a little bit of certainty (very little, but still more than most HS arms)…where do I sign up?

32 – Los Angeles Dodgers – RHP Forrest Whitley (Alamo Heights HS, Texas)

You really shouldn’t have a first round mock draft that doesn’t include at least one big prep righthander from Texas. It just doesn’t feel right. Whitley, standing in at a strapping 6-7, 240 pounds, has the requisite fastball velocity (88-94, 96 peak) to pair with a cadre of power offspeed stuff. We’re talking a devastating when on upper-80s cut-slider and an average or better mid-80s split-change that has been clocked as high as 90 MPH. I’m not sure how power on power on power would work against pro hitters — this is NOT a comp, but I guess Jake Arrieta has found a way to do it — but I’m looking forward to finding out.

33 – St. Louis Cardinals – OF Avery Tuck (Steele Canyon HS, California)

Avery Tuck, or West Coast Will Benson (kind of) as he’s known around here, is about as boom or bust as you get in this year’s high school hitting class. He 100% looks the part and his athletic abilities are off the charts, but the question that has dogged him since he first broke onto the prospect scene — will he make enough contact to put his gifts to use at the pro level? — remains open for interpretation. If he hits, he’s a star. If not, well, when’s the last time you’ve heard a success story about a guy who can’t hit making it big in pro ball?

34 – St. Louis Cardinals – SS Stephen Alemais (Tulane)

A no-doubter at shortstop with a chance to be consistently average or better at the plate and on the base paths? Yes, please. Stephen Alemais’s offensive contributions should fall closer to solid than spectacular, but the 99.99% likelihood he remains at short for the next decade or longer gives him clear fantasy value. If Woodmansee isn’t the answer, then maybe Alemais can get it done.