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College First Basemen to Know

30 Apr 2013 11:09 PM / 2 Comments on College First Basemen to Know

I hate having to preface posts with little updates about my life away from the site, but I ultimately prefer going this route than having to live with the guilt of not updating for multiple days on end. Last week’s excuse was a grad school paper hanging over my head; no sooner did that fifteen-page pile of words get turned in did I come down with a rare and not so beautiful case of double pink eye (love my job, but the threat of maladies like that are a clear downside). I’m not really the type to “get sick” and “stop working,” but, damn, it turns out your eyes are really important when it comes to keeping up with most day-to-day activities. Time spent working on a few projects for the site turned into time sitting around doing nothing but holding a warm compress to my face.

To make life a little simpler for me while I catch up, here’s a quick and dirty list of college first basemen that have caught my eye thus far. Same rules for the catching list last week apply: the list only includes players from the conferences I’ve profiled so far. That would be the Big 10, SEC, ACC, Big East, Ivy, Mountain West, WCC, Sun Belt, Pac 12, WAC, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, and Big 12.

I do promise to have any recent comment or email responded to by the end of the day on Wednesday.

  1. New Mexico JR 1B DJ Peterson
  2. Notre Dame JR 1B Eric Jagielo
  3. Oregon JR 1B Ryon Healy
  4. Notre Dame JR 1B Trey Mancini
  5. Georgia Tech JR 1B Daniel Palka
  6. South Alabama JR 1B Jordan Patterson
  7. Vanderbilt JR 1B Conrad Gregor
  8. Oregon State SR 1B Danny Hayes
  9. Louisiana-Lafayette JR 1B Chase Compton
  10. Washington State rJR 1B Adam Nelubowich
  11. Cincinnati JR 1B Justin Glass
  12. Wichita State rSR 1B Johnny Coy
  13. Portland JR 1B Turner Gill
  14. East Carolina JR 1B Chase McDonald
  15. Florida SR 1B Vickash Ramjit
  16. Marshall SR 1B Nathan Gomez
  17. Rice JR 1B Michael Aquino
  18. Louisville SR 1B Zak Wasserman
  19. North Carolina SR 1B Cody Stubbs
  20. Duke rSO 1B Chris Marconcini
  21. Wake Forest rJR 1B Matt Conway
  22. Maryland JR 1B Tim Kiene
  23. Virginia rSR 1B Jared King
  24. Auburn SR 1B Garrett Cooper
  25. Sacramento State SR 1B Clay Cederquist
  26. Dartmouth JR 1B Dustin Selzer

Let’s Talk College Catching

22 Apr 2013 1:05 AM / 8 Comments on Let’s Talk College Catching

1. Apologies for not being around much of late, but a handful of side projects and the seemingly constant stream of grad school research/paper writing has left me with little time to write for the site. As always, be assured that there’s been lots of updating of materials going on behind the scenes, so get excited for what I like to think is my annual strong content push in the weeks leading up to draft day.

2. Huge thank you to the two individuals who emailed me asking me, in so many words, if I was still in one piece after the recent attacks in Boston. I’ve obviously sent personal emails back — seriously, thanks again — but, egomaniacal fellow that I am, figured that if two strangers were concerned enough to ask then there might be one or two less vocal worriers out there as well. I’m good. My undergrad days in Boston are long gone and I’m a few hundred miles south now. Scary, unimaginably horrible stuff all the same, but I’m good.

3. Personal bookkeeping finally out of the way, how about a list? Here are some ground rules before this thing gets picked apart:

I’ve updated the list as much as possible based on any and all updated scouting information (note: this is still not perfect, as evidenced by the too high ranking of Matt Roberts and the too low ranking of Elvin Soto), but haven’t had a chance to run each prospect’s 2013 numbers through any kind of meaningful statistical testing. Because of this, I strongly considered scrapping the whole ranking aspects of the list and going with a generic alphabetized “follow list” like I’ve done in the past. I’m going with the tentatively ranked list for now because I do think it shows a decent snapshot of where certain players were ranked by me heading into the season.

I’m happy to answer any specific questions and provide any answers about forthcoming changes (e.g. Roberts down, Soto up) in the comments or via email. I’m also planning on slotting in players from elsewhere around college ball, including the juco ranks, in the coming days.

VERY IMPORTANT NOTE: The list only includes players from the conferences I’ve profiled so far. That would be the Big 10, SEC, ACC, Big East, Ivy, Mountain West, WCC, Sun Belt, Pac 12, WAC, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, and Big 12. As referenced above, players from the rest of college ball will be added in the very near future.

  1. California JR C Andrew Knapp
  2. Mississippi JR C Stuart Turner
  3. LSU JR C Tyler Ross
  4. North Carolina JR C Matt Roberts
  5. New Mexico SR C Mitchell Garver
  6. Texas JR C Jacob Felts
  7. Dartmouth JR C Jeff Keller
  8. Vanderbilt JR C Spencer Navin
  9. Auburn JR C Blake Austin
  10. Loyola Marymount SR C Colton Plaia
  11. North Carolina JR C Brian Holberton
  12. Air Force SR C Garrett Custons
  13. Oregon State JR C Jake Rodriguez
  14. Washington State JR C Collin Slaybaugh
  15. San Diego SR C Dillon Haupt
  16. Arizona State SR C Max Rossiter
  17. Southern California JR C Jake Hernandez
  18. Louisville JR C Kyle Gibson
  19. Pittsburgh SO C Elvin Soto
  20. Fresno State SR C Austin Wynns
  21. Virginia Tech rJR C Chad Morgan
  22. Cal State Bakersfield JR C Cael Brockmeyer
  23. Duke SR C Jeff Kremer
  24. Rutgers SR C Jeff Melillo
  25. Fresno State rSR C Trent Garrison
  26. Missouri State SR C Luke Voit
  27. Missouri JR C Dylan Kelly
  28. Illinois State JR C Mike Hollenbeck
  29. Bradley JR C Austin Jarvis
  30. Georgia SR C Brett DeLoach
  31. Mississippi State SR C Mitch Slauter
  32. Arkansas JR C Jake Wise
  33. Mississippi JR C Will Allen
  34. Alabama JR C Wade Wass
  35. Wake Forest SR C Brett Armour
  36. St. John’s JR C Frank Schwindel
  37. Florida Atlantic SR C Mike Spano
  38. Central Florida SR C Ryan Breen
  39. Texas State rJR C Tyler Pearson
  40. Louisiana Tech rJR C Kyle Arnsberg
  41. Texas State SR C Andrew Stumph
  42. Dallas Baptist SR C Duncan McAlpine
  43. Baylor SR C Nathan Orf
  44. Kansas JR C Kai’ana Eldredge
  45. South Carolina SR C Dante Rosenberg

If you’ve made it this far, thanks. Here’s a quick idea of what the immediate future holds. First, I’ve got a paper that needs to be written between now and Thursday. Once that’s out of the way, things will pick up for a bit. In the meantime, I’m hoping to a) continue updating the college catcher rankings and perhaps move on to other positions, b) finish my thoughts on the SEC, and c) do a little MLB Draft/NFL Draft mock draft remix before Thursday’s first round.

Potpourri

12 Apr 2013 1:04 PM / 3 Comments on Potpourri

1. I think the ongoing Austin Meadows vs Clint Frazier debate remains too close to call. I wish I had a stronger opinion on the matter than that weak take, but it’s the truth – I won’t pretend that one has the clear cut advantage at this point because they really are as close as it gets. I do think the two guys have gotten engulfed in a little bit of easy narrative typecasting — not that there’s anything wrong with that as it is a narrative (Meadows is tools/upside/flash, Frazier is advanced/hitter-ish/red-haired) that I have used to describe the two to the bored people in real life who can’t run away in time —  but the differences between Meadows and Frazier are really what makes the comparison so damn compelling. It’s worth noting that the the one obvious edge often given to Meadows — the combination of speed/athleticism/instincts that presently allows him to effectively roam center field — isn’t as much of a sure thing going forward as the narrative may have you believe. If you can guarantee Meadows will play an above-average center through at least his late-20s, then I think he’s the pick. If both are right fielders professionally, then the door is very clearly open for fans of Frazier to proclaim him the best high school hitter in all the land.

Also, very important hair comp that came to me at the ballpark watching Phils/Mets on Wednesday: Frazier is Justin Turner 2.0. This realization helped me relate the draft, a topic I rarely broach in real life despite what I may have written earlier, to my old man. “There’s a high school guy from Georgia in this year’s draft who should go in the first few picks with hair that looks a lot like that (points to Phan-A-Vision when Turner was announced as a pinch-hitter).” The last time I brought up the draft to my dad was when talking about Nick Noonan’s Utley-like swing many years ago. Pretty sure my Frazier/Turner comp will stand the test of time a little better.

2. One thing that I don’t think has been discussed enough (by me, mostly) with respect to this specific draft class is the depth of quality prep arms likely to be available outside of the first round. I know, I know…with so many available arms and so many different team scouting perspectives on pitching, there’s never a bad year for prep pitching. We’re talking guys like Kaminsky, Clarkin, Krook, Brentz, Gonsalves, Wesely, Williams, Puk, Kohler, Alexander, Keys, McKinney, Taylor, Green, Burnett, Allen, Kilichowski, Moss, Bowden, Flores, Brady, Farmer, Jackson, Rogers, Wright, Gilson, Nicely…and those are just a fraction of the lefthanders with top ten round draftable stuff. Typing out the names of the righties would take all weekend. I’m guilty of not writing enough about high school guys, especially the non-first round prospects, so I’ll do what I can to shift the focus on some of the mid- to late-round potential steal types over the coming weeks.

3. I really, really wanted to do a mock this year. It’s been a few years since my last one and I’ve grown antsy. I started to write one on New Year’s Day, but scrapped it in favor of a few other more pressing projects. Long-time readers of the site know my stance on mocks by now: outside of Jim Callis’, mocks as predictive tools are pointless. That doesn’t mean I don’t love them, of course. Mocks are a lot of fun, and, when treated right, can be a great way to learn about the draft’s top players. Mocks can also serve as an exercise in recalibrating one’s self with the pro game. You can’t discuss Houston’s pick without going into their most recent draft classes, their current big league setup, and, most importantly, the emerging talent biding time down in the farm. Well, I guess you can just write “Houston – Mark Appel” and call it a day, but what’s the fun in that? Long story short, I may yet do a mock, but I already feel we’re too late in the process to make it worth the while. Since my mocks aren’t based on real sources — Jim Callis, I ain’t — they read best before teams begin to make their real deal short lists for each pick. For fun, here were some of the high notes from that 1/1/13 mock…again, this is NOT a current mock (note the dated draft order in places) and shouldn’t be treated as such.

1. Houston Astros | Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea

2. Chicago Cubs | Arkansas JR RHP Ryne Stanek

3. Colorado Rockies | Grayson HS (GA) OF Austin Meadows

4. Minnesota Twins | Loganville HS (GA) OF Clint Frazier

5. Cleveland Indians | Stanford SR RHP Mark Appel

6. Miami Marlins | Lakewood HS (CA) SS JP Crawford

7. Boston Red Sox | Florida JR RHP Karsten Whitson

8. Kansas City Royals | Florida JR RHP Jonathan Crawford

9. Pittsburgh Pirates | Stanford JR OF Austin Wilson

10. Toronto Blue Jays | San Diego JR OF/3B Kris Bryant

11. New York Mets | Red Wing HS (MN) OF Ryan Boldt

12. Seattle Mariners | Kentwood HS (WA) C Reese McGuire

13. San Diego Padres | St. Pius HS (TX) RHP Kohl Stewart

14. Pittsburgh Pirates | New Castle HS (IN) OF Trey Ball

15. Arizona Diamondbacks | Gaither HS (FL) SS Oscar Mercado

16. Philadelphia Phillies | St. Joseph Regional HS (NJ) LHP Robert Kaminsky

17. Milwaukee Brewers | Mississippi JR RHP Bobby Wahl

18. Chicago White Sox | Terrebonne HS (LA) OF Justin Williams

19. Los Angeles Dodgers | Woodford County HS (KY) RHP Clinton Hollon

20. St. Louis Cardinals | Cathedral Catholic HS (CA) LHP Stephen Gonsalves

21. Detroit Tigers | North Carolina 3B Colin Moran

22. Tampa Rays | Junipero Serra HS (CA) 1B Dominic Smith

23. Baltimore Orioles | Fresno State OF Aaron Judge

24. Texas Rangers | Riverwood HS (GA) OF Terry McClure

25. Oakland Athletics | James Madison HS (VA) SS/3B Andy McGuire

26. San Francisco Giants | Washington HS (IA) LHP AJ Puk

27. New York Yankees | St. Thomas HS (TX) 3B Cavan Biggio

28. Cincinnati Reds | Gonzaga LHP Marco Gonzales

29. Washington Nationals | Riverdale Baptist HS  (MD) OF Matthew McPhearson

Supplemental First Round

30. St. Louis Cardinals | LSU SS/OF JaCoby Jones

31. Tampa Rays | Wenatchee HS (WA) RHP Dustin Driver

32. Texas Rangers | Yukon HS (OK) C Jon Denney

33. Atlanta Braves | Parkview HS (GA) OF Josh Hart

34. New York Yankees | LSU JR RHP Ryan Eades

35. New York Yankees | Venice HS (FL) 1B Nick Longhi

36. Washington Nationals | Elk Grove HS (CA) 1B Rowdy Tellez

Competitive Balance Lottery Round A

37. Kansas City Royals | Vanderbilt JR LHP Kevin Ziomek

38. Miami Marlins | Virginia Tech JR 3B Chad Pinder

39. Arizona Diamondbacks | Samford OF Phillip Ervin

40. Baltimore Orioles | James Madison HS (CA) LHP Ian Clarkin

41. Cincinnati Reds | King HS (FL) RHP Brett Morales

42. Detroit Tigers | Arlington County Day HS (FL) C Brian Navaretto

For good measure, here’s what I wrote up about the Houston pick…

1. Houston Astros | Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea

Houston has done an admirable job of restocking the organization’s hitting depth, but remains short on starting pitchers worth getting excited about. Lance McCullers, Mike Foltynewicz, and Nick Tropeano are a good foundation to build on, but that one starting pitching prospect who blends big league readiness with front of the rotation stuff remains elusive. I get that this could be said about 29 other farm systems — hey, did you know ace starting pitching prospects are rare? — but the lover of team building in me appreciates a projected rotation so much more when pitchers are slotted in where they “should” be. Sean Manaea as the future staff ace knocks all those other arms down a peg, and that’s something my brain appreciates. I know I shouldn’t get that caught up in Number 1 Starter, Number 2 Starter, Number 3 Starter, Number 4 Starter, Number 5 Starter designations, but it is something that helps increase my fandom rather than decrease my ability to discuss prospects. Anyway, if the Astros decide to hone in on pitching then it will almost certainly restrict their search to college arms, specifically the big three of Manaea, Ryne Stanek, and Mark Appel. I’ve gone back and forth on all three guys since last June, but am now pretty confident that Manaea is the pick to click. No pitcher in this class — or any others for the foreseeable future, despite what I’ve read a few fellow indy draft writers write about Carlos Rodon — compares to Stephen Strasburg, the ultimate in amateur pitching prospects in every possible way. However, if pressed to choose one name that even gave some kind of outside resemblance to the Nationals ace, I’d go Manaea. Part of the reason for such a silly comparison is based on each guy’s respective transition from soft bodied high school afterthought to top of the prospect class after just two years of collegiate life. Just another example of how often we, myself included, tend to overrate prospect accumulation while underrating player development.

Back to that hitting depth for a minute: potential above-average regulars Jonathan Singleton, George Springer, and Delino Deshields should join Jose Altuve in Houston within the next year or so. Last year’s draft prizes, Carlos Correa and Rio Ruiz, offer legit star upside. Lottery ticket Domingo Santana remains intriguing, as does the cadre of steady yet unspectacular future contributors like Tyler Heineman, Preston Tucker, Matt Dominguez, Nolan Fontana, Jonathan Villar, and Robbie Grossman. Adding a young outfielder like Austin Meadows or Clint Frazier would further strengthen the Astros collection of up the middle talent: you’d have MIFs Correa, Deshields, Altuve, Fontana, and Villar, as well as CFs Springer and Meadows/Frazier. That would be fun.

As I’ve said before, I have heard that certain high-ranking decision makers within the Astros front office like JP Crawford a ton. If I had to name one “sleeper” to go first overall — we’ll define sleeper as not being one of the big three college arms (Manaea, Stanek, Appel) nor one of the two hugely hyped prep outfielders (Meadows, Frazier) — then Crawford would be the easy pick. Choosing Correa and Crawford back-to-back with number one overall selections would be some kind of ballsy.

2013 MLB Draft March Madness Prospect Tournament

8 Apr 2013 12:45 AM / Leave a comment

Next year I’m going to give this idea the proper amount of effort it deserves. Until then, behold the half-baked 2013 MLB Draft March Madness Prospect Tournament unveiled just in time for March Madness to wrap up with tonight’s championship game. Seeds were determined by combing the lists compiled by the four current leaders in the industry: Baseball America, Perfect Game, ESPN (Keith Law), and Scout (Kiley McDaniel). The lists are obviously quite dated by now — Perfect Game is the oldest, and I started this before Baseball America’s most recent update — but what’s done is done. Besides (positive spin alert!), using older lists helped create some fun matchups, as well as demonstrate how much some prospects have risen or fallen in the past few months. Here we go…

West (Stanford) Region

1 Mark Appel
16 Karsten Whitson

8 Jordan Sheffield
9 Kevin Ziomek

5 Ryan Boldt
12 Billy McKinney

4 Oscar Mercado
13 Hunter Harvey

6 Phillip Ervin
11 Stephen Gonsalves

3 Colin Moran
14 Travis Demeritte

7 Chris Anderson
10 JaCoby Jones

2 Austin Wilson
15 Matt McPhearson

How interesting is that very first matchup? Prior to his injury, Whitson could have given Appel a run for his money. Well, I guess we could change that to “prior to his injury AND Mark Appel consistently showing off top of the rotation big league stuff every Friday all spring long,” but that would be a little wordy. Sheffield (future Vandy ace?) and Ziomek (current Vandy ace) give us a 8/9 “upset” made easy by Sheffield’s questionable health status. Boldt vs McKinney is a fascinating contrast of loud athletic tools (Boldt) and a bat-first prep corner outfield prospect (have heard “poor man’s Frazier” mentioned his way, though I’m not saying I endorse such talk). Mercado and Harvey give us what seems like a yearly tradition in the real deal NCAA tournament: a 4/13 upset. Talk about two players with respective arrows going the opposite directions there. I like Ervin over Gonsalvez, Moran over Demeritte (fun plus bat over plus glove battle there), Anderson over Jones, and Wilson, injured or not, over the stupid fast McPhearson.

***

South (SEC) Region

1 Ryne Stanek
16 Rowdy Tellez

8 Andrew Mitchell
9 Justin Williams

5 Bobby Wahl
12 Garret Williams

4 Reese McGuire
13 Aaron Blair

6 Ryan Eades
11 Matt Krook

3 Jonathon Crawford
14 AJ Puk

7 Eric Jagielo
10 Dustin Driver

2 Austin Meadows
15 Carlos Salazar

I swear I didn’t stack the deck to get so many big time SEC arms into one regional. Can’t say I’m too bummed out things worked out this way, though. Life is good for the SEC when it comes to most of these first round draws: Stanek whoops Tellez, Wahl topples Williams (lots of inconsistent stuff featured in that matchup), and Crawford (current Florida star) edges the underrated Puk (future Florida star?). The one matchup that gives me major pause is Eades vs Krook. A pairing that close calls for a breakdown:

Fastball: Crawford (90-94, 98) ties Krook (87-93, 95) with the latter evening things up thanks to his lefthandedness
Breaking Stuff: nasty mid-80s sliders for both, call it another tie
Changeup: big win for Crawford, who has an underrated mid-80s offering that takes care of Krook’s underdeveloped (i.e. I’ve got nothing on it) change
Size/Physical Projection/Future Role: Krook (6-4, 200) by virtue over Crawford (6-2, 200) getting dinged in the past for perhaps not having the body, arm action, and command to start in pro ball (not saying I agree)

I could keep going with categories, but it’s late so let’s call it for Krook by the skin of his teeth. Beyond the SEC, we’ll go with Mitchell over Williams (very, very close), McGuire over Blair (I just like McGuire too much, so don’t take this as a reflection on not liking Blair, who has been truly great this year), Driver over Jagielo (upside play), and Meadows over Salazar.

Midwest (Manaea) Region

1 Sean Manaea
16 Chris Okey

8 Andrew Thurman
9 Dillon Overton

5 Aaron Judge
12 Connor Jones

4 Kohl Stewart
13 Hunter Renfroe

6 Jonathan Gray
11 Andy McGuire

3 Dominic Smith
14 Chris Kohler

7 Ian Clarkin
10 Jason Hursh

2 JP Crawford
15 Conrad Gregor

This region should be proof enough that I didn’t game the results of the rankings to create interesting matchups. We’re going chalk all the way. I could maybe see arguments in favor of Jones over Judge (this goes against everything I’ll say in the next parenthetical distraction, but Jones may actually be a “safer” pick than Judge at this point) or Renfroe over Stewart (only if you a) are scared off by Stewart’s medicals/signability, or b) really don’t like risking high picks on risky high school pitchers). One nice thing about all the favorites moving on is that you get better quality matchups (in theory) in ensuing rounds. I, for one, love that Gray is lurking as a sixth seed…

***

East (because the last region gets stuck with an illogical geographical title) Region

1 Clint Frazier
16 Cavan Biggio

8 Rob Kaminsky
9 Michael Lorenzen

5 Marco Gonzales
12 Tom Windle

4 Trey Ball
13 AJ Vanegas

6 DJ Peterson
11 Colby Suggs

3 Jonathan Denney
14 Tucker Neuhaus

7 Trevor Williams
10 Braden Shipley

2 Kris Bryant
15 Hunter Green

Rob Kaminsky plays in the east, right? So the name isn’t that bad. I like the Jersey lefty over the endlessly frustrating Lorenzen. It probably doesn’t much matter as either is like a lamb to slaughter with Frazier looming large in round two. A part of me was hoping Vanegas would be a 16 seed, so we could pair him up against teammate Appel. As a 13 he’s plenty dangerous, but Ball is a touch too talented to make gambling on Vanegas a smart play. Peterson takes care of Suggs (wildly overrated, but that could just be my anti-reliever bias showing), Denney smacks down helium guy Neuhaus, and Bryant makes quick work of the interesting Green.

Speaking of Green, I would imagine anybody reading over 1,000 words on a weird draft related piece like this knows all of the names featured above. The one exception may be the little hyped prep lefty from Kentucky. Green already can hit the low-90s with his fastball and just oozes projection (gross, sorry) in his 6-4, 170 pound frame. He’s also one of the smarter young pitching minds in this class. I don’t remember which list liked him enough to get him into the tournament, but I think it was Law. Good name to know going forward.

The two unsettled matchups are our 5/12 and 7/10 contests. Shipley is on an entirely different level than Williams for me, but it stinks that an “upset” like that doesn’t carry any weight now that Shipley has emerged as a legitimate top ten threat. Gonzales vs Windle is worth a breakdown, right? Let’s close out the first round by stacking these two quality college lefthanders against one another in a blind test:

87-92 FB (94), above-average 78-84 SL (plus upside), average 80-85 CU (above-average upside), good athlete, 6-4, 210 pounds

2011: 7.62 K/9 | 41.1 IP
2012: 8.27 K/9 | 3.70 BB/9 | 4.20 FIP | 41.1 IP
2013: 8.10 K/9 | 1.62 BB/9 | 3.47 FIP | 50 IP

OR

87-91 FB (92), average 75-81 CB, plus 77-82 circle CU, plus athlete, 6-1, 185 pounds

2011: 7.80 K/9 | 105 IP
2012: 9.13 K/9 | 2.14 BB/9 | 3.34 FIP | 92.2 IP
2013: 8.12 K/9 | 1.76 BB/9 | 3.26 FIP | 51 IP

Wow, that’s close. I need to sleep on that one…

Big Board: Quick 2013 MLB Draft Top Twenty

4 Apr 2013 11:02 PM / 2 Comments on Big Board: Quick 2013 MLB Draft Top Twenty

Today is the home opener for my hometown team. Said team picks 16th in the 2013 MLB Draft. Putting those two thoughts together equals the following thought experiment. Don’t consider this a real deal big board, but rather a quick and dirty look at which players I like best as a fan and not as a nobody internet draft guy. Not a huge distinction between the two, but just enough that I’m not comfortable calling this anything but unofficial. So, here’s my official unofficial top twenty for the 2013 MLB Draft, in no particular order.
This first tier is full of no-brainers. I’d be weak in the knees if any of these pitchers were still on the board at 16:

Stanford RHP Mark Appel
Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray
Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea
Nevada RHP Braden Shipley
Arkansas RHP Ryne Stanek
RHP Kohl Stewart (St. Pius X HS, Texas)

Same goes for any scenario that gets one of these five bats to the mid-teens:

OF Austin Meadows (Grayson HS, Georgia)
San Diego OF/3B Kris Bryant
OF Clint Frazier (Loganville HS, Georgia)
C Reese McGuire (Kentwood HS, Washington)
C Jon Denney (Yukon HS, Oklahoma)

Give me one of those eleven prospects on the draft’s first night and I’d consider it a major, major win for my favorite team. Realistically, I think there’s a shot that one or more of the three S pitchers (Stanek, Stewart, Shipley) falls. Stanek’s inconsistent spring, Stewart’s health questions, and the chance the excitement over Shipley’s newness as a top ten prospect wears off are all reasons each could slide. Admittedly, that last one is a stretch, though I think it is fair to wonder if the hype that Shipley is getting by the industry leaders is a reflection of what big league clubs are saying (good news for Shipley if so) or something else altogether. I think it’s the former, and not just because I was hyping him up back in February. He’s really good, and I’d love to get him at 16.

Of the position players, it seems clear that Meadows, Bryant, and Frazier are all locks to be long gone. That leaves the two prep catchers. It actually wouldn’t surprise me if both were still on the board at 16. This wouldn’t occur because of teams doubting their talent, but rather because of the spotty at best history of first round prep catchers. Fair or not, I think teams are wary of young catching in a way they aren’t like at any other position. For the record, I remain in the shrinking group that still prefers McGuire to Denney.

We now have 11 players I’d be ecstatic to land at pick 16. The next group is a lot more fluid, so I expanded it a bit to find the best possible fits in terms of physical talent, performance, and projection.

Stanford OF Austin Wilson
North Carolina 3B Colin Moran
SS JP Crawford (Lakewood HS, California)
OF Ryan Boldt (Red Wing HS, Minnesota)
1B Dominic Smith (Serra HS, California)
Jacksonville RHP Chris Anderson
LSU RHP Ryan Eades
LHP Ian Clarkin (Madison HS, California)
RHP Hunter Harvey (Bandys HS, North Carolina)

I only need five more names to get to 16, but I’m cheating here and bringing the total up to an even 20. If healthy all year, Austin Wilson wouldn’t be in the conversation as a realistic pick at 16. Heck, a productive return to the field – he’s rumored to be back this weekend, so stay tuned for that – could make this mid-first round talk for Wilson seem silly in a month. If he does fall on draft day, I doubt he falls all that far. The mid- to late-first round is the perfect spot to take chances on prospects that are fading due to reasons having nothing to do with ability. The Phillies have had great success going this route (Hamels, Drabek, Savery…well, 2 out of 3 ain’t bad), so it wouldn’t be totally out of character to see Wilson as a possibility if he slides.

Colin Moran is my pick for this year’s trendy prospect to bash (no power, stinks on defense, Ackley’s failings somehow apply to him) in the weeks leading up to the draft, but I’m willing to ride with him as a future above-average big league regular. The bats of Crawford and Boldt alone may not be thrilling, but they each bring enough to the table to profile as everyday players at positions that aren’t easy to fill. Smith is the opposite: pretty darn thrilling bat, but more or less locked into first base. I’m not alone in judging bat-first prospects very harshly, so it should say something about Smith’s upside with the stick that I’m good with him being the Phillies first pick, Either Chris Anderson or Ryan Eades would work for me as both have deep, effective repertoires. Clarkin (seriously love his CB) and Harvey (three above-average pitches and crazy athleticism) also each have front of the rotation stuff.  There are other names I could get behind at 16 – Trey Ball, Matt Krook, Oscar Mercado, to name three – but these 20 are currently my most coveted draft prospects.

2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Big Ten

3 Apr 2013 12:46 AM / 2 Comments on 2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Big Ten

I have some stray SEC thoughts, plus a tiered first round big board coming up over the next few days. Good times ahead. As for the mountain of text below, well, I’ll just say the position players in the Big Ten are a group only a mother could love. Some interesting arms led by a potential first day lefty, but all in all not a thrilling collection of talent. How’s that for a hard sell? Now read it!

  • Bold = locks to be drafted
  • Italics = definite maybes
  • Underlined = possible risers
  • Plain text = long shots

C

  • Nebraska SO C Tanner Lubach
  • Minnesota JR C Matt Halloran
  • Iowa SR C Dan Sheppard
  • Michigan State JR C John Martinez
  • Michigan rJR C John DiLaura
  • Illinois rSO C Kelly Norris-Jones
  • Michigan State JR C Joel Fisher
  • Purdue JR C Sean McHugh
  • Michigan rJR C Zach Johnson
  • Penn State JR C Alex Farkes
  • Nebraska JR C Corey Stringer
  • Minnesota rSR C Kurt Schlangen

I can talk/write a lot – some would say too much – but I’ve got very little to say about this group of catching prospects. Lubach was a guy that I was told had the highest ceiling of any draft-eligible Big Ten catcher, and Halloran and Sheppard have gotten some buzz for their work behind the plate. That’s the nice, scout-approved news. The numbers tell a different story. Of the dozen names listed above, I think you can charitably call nine of the twelve as having below-average starts to the 2013 season. Schlangen has been decent. Fisher and McHugh, both players designated as C/1B in my notes, are the only two “catchers” that have gotten off to strong statistical starts, and McHugh’s “hot start” is only passable when viewed through the prism of park/schedule adjustments. For anybody who cries “small sample size,” well, true enough. However, a quick look back at last year reveals a larger pattern of underwhelming performance across the board. Halloran was good (.340/.415/.440) and Martinez solid (.317/.385/.430), but only McHugh has been a consistent collegiate performer. Long story short, the Big Ten likely doesn’t have a 2013 MLB Draft prospect who currently dons the tools of ignorance.

1B

  • Minnesota JR 1B Alex LaShomb
  • Michigan JR 1B Brett Winger
  • Northwestern SR 1B Jack Havey

Three big guys, three non-prospects. Havey, the leanest of the three (6-3, 200 pounds), is off to the best start this spring of the group.

2B

  • Northwestern JR 2B Kyle Ruchim
  • Indiana SR 2B Michael Basil
  • Ohio State rSR 2B Ryan Cypret
  • Iowa rSO 2B Jake Mangler
  • Penn State SR 2B Luis Montesinos

I rarely cut players from my lists after I’ve committed to them either because of a nice scouting note or the achievement of certain statistical benchmarks (see the catching list if you don’t believe me), but I dropped a few Big Ten second basemen from the original draft because including them would be a stretch that I’m not yet able to make. After a few more months of yoga, maybe…

It was all doom and gloom when it came time to editing my lists. I also made a last minute decision to switch Kyle Ruchim from the pitching list to this one. He’s excelled in both areas as a Wildcat (pitching: 12.05 K/9 in 2011, 11.57 K/9 in 2012, 9.53 K/9 so far in 2013), but, fair or not, he’d face an uphill battle as a 5-10, 180 pound righthanded reliever if limited to the mound as a pro. As a second baseman, he gives you a really steady glove, average speed, enough power to the gaps to keep pitchers honest (and subsequently help him maintain strong BB/K numbers), and, as you’d expect from a guy once clocked at 93 MPH, a strong arm. Finding underrated two-way college talent like Ruchim is what makes doing this conference draft previews worth it for me. Remember his name on draft day.

3B

  • Indiana JR 3B Dustin DeMuth
  • Illinois rJR 3B Jordan Parr
  • Ohio State rSR 3B Brad Hallberg
  • Minnesota SR 3B Ryan Abrahamson

Finally, a decent prospect group to talk about. Dustin DeMuth is a player that I had multiple Midwest contacts tell me was a big-time sleeper to watch coming into the season. I’d say so far, so good. DeMuth has gone out and done a lot of the things he was expected to do: hit with power, field his position well, and show a far more aggressive than ideal approach at the plate. The first two are reasons to be excited about him in an intriguing ball of clay to mold kind of way, especially if a team thinks they can curtail, or, at worst, more positively channel his hacktastic ways. Parr is another good athlete with above-average raw power who, like DeMuth, brings the added dimension of defensive versatility. Hallberg is a steady college performer who may get a late look as an organizational guy. Abrahamson has an intriguing frame (6-4, 190 pounds) and some talent yet to be fully tapped.

SS

  • Ohio State SR SS Kirby Pellant
  • Illinois JR SS Thomas Lindauer
  • Minnesota rSO SS Michael Handel
  • Minnesota rSR SS Troy Larson

Pellant does enough well across the board (speed, throw, footwork) that he should get a look as a mid- to late-round potential utility infielder option. It’s an imperfect comp, but consider Pellant somewhat similar to Adam Frazier but with a lesser stick. Lindauer and Handel are probably looking at a future similar to Larson’s present, i.e. hoping for a late-round senior sign selection.

OF

  • Michigan JR OF Michael O’Neill
  • Michigan SR OF Patrick Biondi
  • Minnesota rJR OF Dan Olinger 
  • Nebraska SR OF Chad Christensen 
  • Nebraska SR OF Josh Scheffert
  • Minnesota JR OF Bobby Juan
  • Michigan State SR OF Jordan Keur
  • Illinois SR OF Justin Parr
  • Purdue SR OF Stephen Talbott 
  • Nebraska JR OF Mike Pritchard 
  • Michigan State SO OF Jimmy Pickens 
  • Nebraska rJR OF Kash Kalkowski
  • Nebraska SR OF Rich Sanguinetti
  • Minnesota SR OF Andy Henkemeyer
  • Indiana SR OF Justin Cureton
  • Illinois SR OF Davis Hendrickson
  • Ohio State JR OF Tim Wetzel
  • Ohio State rJR OF Mike Carroll
  • Penn State rJR OF Steve Snyder
  • Iowa JR OF Taylor Zeutenhorst

Michael O’Neill hasn’t gotten the degree of draft buzz yet that I expect we’ll see build over the next few weeks, but he’s a really intriguing talent with big league tools. I’m hoping to have more on him in the not too distant future; until then, let me just say that if I was the one doing the picking, O’Neill would terrify me as a potential top three round pick. Here are some choice snippets from what Baseball America has to say about the 6-2, 200ish pound righthanded hitting outfielder for Michigan:

  • “excellent athlete”
  • “best tool is his speed”
  • “well above-average runner”
  • “should hit for average because of a smooth stroke”
  • “average power”
  • “average center fielder”
  • “arm is a tick above average”
  • “isn’t particularly polished for a college draftee”

The big worry about this player is his lack of plate discipline. Striking out 1.65 times for every BB as an amateur isn’t a good thing. Waaaaaait, a second here. Were we talking about Michael O’Neill here? Whoops. All of the above is about 2010 second round pick Ryan LaMarre. I’m so tricky! Sure, all of the above also applies to O’Neill with the one notable exception being his ever more concerning lack of plate discipline (3.04 K/BB). It should also be noted that O’Neill’s swing, a little on the long and clunky side, hasn’t garnered as many favorable reviews as LaMarre’s once did. Consider me much closer to “like” than “love” when it comes to O”Neill (I prefer him to LaMarre, if that means anything to you), and even that may be generous at this point. The tools are loud and he could succeed in the right environment (patience will be key with him from a developmental standpoint), but he’ll wind up far lower on my rankings than he’ll fall on the industry leaders big boards.

After O’Neill the race for second Big Ten outfield prospect drafted looks as tight as tight can be. His Michigan teammate Pat Biondi is as good a name as any to slot into spot number two. He’s not a star nor does he give off a “future starter” vibe, but his speed, range, and pesky on-base skills and bat control should give him a chance to make it as a handy backup in time. Olinger has a nice looking swing, decent power, and a good approach, but no carrying tool that would make him a potential regular. Chad Christensen looks great on paper – speed, pop, all kinds of defensive flexibility – but issues with an all-or-nothing approach to hitting persist. Same could be said for his Nebraska teammate Kash Kalkowski. One name to watch is Bobby Juan, especially if a team makes the decision to stick his plus arm on the mound full-time.

P

  • Minnesota JR LHP Tom Windle
  • Ohio State JR RHP Josh Dezse
  • Minnesota JR LHP DJ Snelten
  • Purdue rJR RHP Brad Schreiber
  • Michigan State JR RHP David Garner 
  • Northwestern SR RHP Luke Farrell
  • Indiana JR LHP Joey DeNato
  • Ohio State rSR RHP Brad Goldberg
  • Ohio State JR RHP Jaron Long 
  • Illinois rSO RHP Reid Roper
  • Indiana rSO RHP Aaron Slegers 
  • Nebraska SR RHP Kyle Hander
  • Ohio State SR RHP Brett McKinney
  • Northwestern rSR RHP Zach Morton
  • Ohio State JR RHP Greg Greve
  • Penn State rSR RHP David Walkling
  • Illinois SR RHP Kevin Johnson
  • Iowa SR LHP Matt Dermody
  • Penn State JR LHP Greg Welsh
  • Indiana JR LHP Brian Korte 
  • Michigan JR RHP Alex Lakatos
  • Minnesota rJR RHP Alex Tukey 
  • Nebraska JR RHP Brandon Pierce
  • Illinois JR RHP Ronnie Muck
  • Michigan State JR LHP Jeff Kinley
  • Michigan SR RHP Ben Ballantine 
  • Michigan State rJR RHP Michael Theodore
  • Michigan SR RHP Kyle Clark
  • Minnesota SR RHP Billy Soule
  • Michigan State SR RHP Andrew Waszak
  • Minnesota SR RHP Drew Ghelfi
  • Michigan rJR LHP Logan McAnallen
  • Michigan State SR LHP Trey Popp
  • Penn State SR RHP Neal Herring
  • Indiana JR RHP Matt Dearden
  • Northwestern JR RHP Ethan Bramschreiber
  • Minnesota JR RHP Alec Crawford
  • Nebraska JR LHP Tyler King
  • Northwestern JR LHP Dan Tyson
  • Illinois rSR RHP Bryan Roberts
  • Nebraska SR RHP Dylan Vogt
  • Indiana JR RHP Ryan Halstead
  • Northwestern JR RHP Jack Quigley
  • Penn State SR RHP Steven Hill
  • Purdue rSR RHP Robert Ramer
  • Ohio State SR LHP Brian King
  • Illinois rSO RHP Drasen Johnson
  • Nebraska JR RHP Christian Deleon
  • Nebraska JR LHP Zach Hirsch
  • Nebraska SR RHP Tyler Niederklein
  • Penn State rSO RHP TJ Jann
  • Illinois rSO LHP Rob McDonnell

Tom Windle isn’t this year’s sexiest draft prospect, but he still stands a fine chance of making it as a sturdy back of the rotation option in short order. His 87-92 (93-94) fastball has a ton of natural movement, he can spin two average or better breaking balls (way more 78-84 sliders than curves, and that’s a good thing – the slider is one of my favorite singular pitches of this class), and an improved yet still underdeveloped mid-80s changeup. This is a forced comp and I apologize in advance, but I see a little bit of Mike Minor minus the nasty changeup when I watch Windle. Other, perhaps better comparisons: Clayton Richard (but lighter) and Wade Miley (but taller). Those last two comps work pretty darn well from cumulative stuff standpoints, I think. In fact, put the three guys in a blender (note: not literally, they’d die) and you wind up with a delicious Tom Windle cocktail.

Josh Dezse hasn’t pitched this year due to injury, but fits in as a high-level follow the minute he steps back on the mound. One sentence doesn’t really do Dezse’s upside credit. Nor does that second sentence, come to think of it. A scout before the year told me he thought Desze looked like the second coming of Tom Wilhelmsen on the mound at times last season.  Windle’s teammate DJ Snelten has just recently returned from injury; his first two years weren’t as productive as you’d expect from a guy with stuff good enough to start one day at the big league level. Brad Schreiber has been thrown back into the mix after missing all of last year thanks to Tommy John surgery. He still flashes back of the bullpen type stuff, but inconsistent control remains his bugaboo.

Now that the season has started I feel guilty if I don’t at least peruse the current numbers before publishing these conference follow lists. I don’t put a ton of stock on about a half of a season’s worth of data, but recent performances, whether positive or negative, can sometimes be a reflection of meaningful changes from a scouting perspective. Anyway, I happened to notice that I ranked Kevin Johnson and Matt Dermody back to back. Then I checked their 2013 numbers:

Johnson: 6.23 K/9 – 2.08 BB/9 – 3.79 FIP – 47.2 IP
Dermody: 6.27 K/9 – 2.09 BB/9 – 3.91 FIP – 47.1 IP

Neat!

You’d think I had some Northwestern connection (I don’t!) with the way I love Luke Farrell and Zach Morton. Farrell has always pitched well, has good size, and a fastball/curve/change trio that is good enough to get out big league hitters. I really like his fastball. Morton is the athlete I wish I could have been. Joey DeNato doesn’t have the same kind of physicality of the Northwestern guys, but darn if he doesn’t keep getting hitters out with his outstanding secondary stuff (change mostly). Jaron Long doesn’t quite have the same offspeed stuff, but he can still cutter teams to death when called upon. Brad Goldberg is a little like Brad Schreiber: big arm, intriguing upside, control remains a mess. I expected big things out of both Alex Lakatos (athleticism, size, heat, slider) and Brandon Pierce, but can’t say either has set the world on fire so far in 2013. Reid Roper is like Kyle Ruchim in that both are Big Ten 2B/RHP who do both jobs darn well. I like Roper a touch more on the mound than as a hitter, but can see why Illinois likes having his bat in the lineup. Fun player.