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2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Big East

25 Feb 2013 1:05 AM / Leave a comment

This may be a lean week because of some real life — well, as “real” as grad school can be — paper writing that needs to be done. 2,000+ words about the Big East will have to suffice until then.

Bold = locks to be drafted
Italics = definite maybes
Underlined = possible risers
Plain text = long shots

C

Pittsburgh SO C Elvin Soto
Louisville JR C Kyle Gibson
Rutgers SR C Jeff Melillo
St. John’s JR C Frank Schwindel
St. John’s SR C Danny Bethea
Louisville SR C Matt Helms

Elvin Soto’s arm, hands, upside as a defender, and untapped potential at the plate — big things are expected, but worth noting he hit .236/.302/.384 in 216 freshman ABs — could propel him into the discussion as one of this year’s draft few college catchers with big league starter upside. I’m not quite there, but that’s more my issue with his general profile (plus arm, intriguing power, questionable plate discipline) than him as an individual prospect. In fact, I actually initially had him lower than Kyle Gibson. Gibson is a decent upside sleeper play thanks to outstanding athleticism, above-average speed, and a strong arm. There’s still some improvement needed in his defense behind the dish, but you can see that he has the tools to work himself into a dependable backstop in time. I think guys like Gibson (i.e. athletic with a mature approach to hitting) profile better as big league backups than the all-or-nothing power/arm types. Could just be my recent Phillies fandom bias kicking in: love Carlos Ruiz, couldn’t stand Rod Barajas.

The ACC draft preview goes up next, so the comparison of Jeff Melillo to Duke’s Jeff Kremer should make more sense then. I like both guys as mid-round catchers worth stashing in the minors as insurance to your more highly regarded catching prospects. After four, five, even six years of minor league time go by, you suddenly find yourself in possession of a competent catcher who can get on base a bit and is universally well-liked by pitchers. Frank Schwindel (.322/.350/416 in 202 AB) may not have the defensive chops to stay a catcher in pro ball; if that’s the case, slot him in between Gardner and Anderson on the first base list.

1B

Notre Dame JR 1B Eric Jagielo
Notre Dame JR 1B Trey Mancini
Cincinnati JR 1B Justin Glass
Louisville SR 1B Zak Wasserman
Louisville JR 1B Jeff Gardner
Georgetown JR 1B Steve Anderson
South Florida SR 1B Jimmy Falla

My one scheduling regret this spring is not getting a chance to see Notre Dame, a team that plays Villanova in South Bend and not nearby in Plymouth Meeting, PA in 2013. Eric Jagielo and Trey Mancini alone are well worth making a trek to see the Fighting Irish if you get the chance. Both look the part of potential middle-of-the-order thumpers. Jagielo, whom I’ve knocked down to 1B despite the fact many believe he can play at least a passable 3B, is the marquee attraction right now, but it wouldn’t stun me to see Mancini overtake him as a prospect. Alright, fine, it would be a pretty big shocker…I just wanted to say something controversial for a change. I forget who made the initial comp, but I really like the hitting comparison between Jagielo and Mike Olt. Mancini is more of a prototypical first baseman (a rock solid 6-5, 225 pounds), but both guys are above-average athletes with substantial raw power and impressive plate discipline. I’ve started putting together positional lists of all the conferences I’ve profiled so far, and Jagielo and Mancini are tentatively 1-2 on the rankings, ahead of names like DJ Peterson and Daniel Palka (again, ACC preview coming soon!).

Justin Glass is stuck being the third wheel in this group, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a viable 2013 prospect in his own right. His raw power — emphasis on raw — is on par with any hitter in the conference, Jagielo and Mancini included. If his arm was 100% healthy and a team believed he could handle LF, then Glass’ draft stock should get a nice shot in the arm. The two Louisville guys are interesting, as well: Wasserman is a big man with power befitting his 6-6, 240 pound frame and Gardner’s experience behind the plate and in the outfield could help him with teams looking for a mid-round pick with positional versatility. I’m also impressed with Jimmy Falla, a player who manages to contribute to a college baseball team while moonlighting as the host of a late night talk show.

Connecticut SR 2B LJ Mazzilli
Louisville JR 2B Ty Young
Louisville SR 2B Nick Ratajczak
Villanova rSR 2B Tyler Sciacca
Georgetown SR 2B Corbin Blakey

LJ Mazzilli’s curious slide down the draft board last year — signability concerns fully acknowledged — makes me hesitant to champion his cause once again, but there’s something about the guy I like. Could be the impressive for a college second baseman tools package (more than enough speed, pop, and contact ability), could be his consistent production (.375/.425/.535 in 2011, .389/.451/.619 in 2012), could be his much improved (in my personal view) defense. I’m pretty loyal to prospects I like, so don’t act shocked when I spend another few months championing the cause of Mazzilli, a future big leaguer in my book. He finished sixth in the college second base rankings last year, and he’s currently second (keep in mind I’ve only been through a dozen or so conferences thus far) only to Lonnie Kauppila. Not bad. Here are a few things I’ve written on Mazzilli over the years:

150. Connecticut JR 2B LJ Mazzilli: above-average speed; good athlete; chance to be really good defender, but isn’t quite there yet – still think he’s better than many of the national outlets are reporting, but I get that there’s plenty of wiggle room in player evaluation; no discernible platoon split; 6-1, 190 pounds; I’ve long championed Mazzilli as a potential big league starting second baseman, so I might as well ride it out: Really impressed by 2B LJ Mazzilli‘s swing and approach at the plate. He has a little toe-tap timing mechanism that reminds me a little bit of Mark Reynolds’ swing, only without the swing-and-miss length. Good speed, good athleticism, and good hands should keep him up the middle, and a little physical maturation at the plate could help turn him into one of those super annoying scrappy middle infielders we all know and love (or hate, depending on the player).

Really impressed by SO 2B LJ Mazzilli‘s swing and approach at the plate. He has a little toe-tap timing mechanism that reminds me a little bit of Mark Reynolds’ swing, only without the swing-and-miss length. Good speed, good athleticism, and good hands should keep him up the middle, and a little physical maturation at the plate could help turn him into one of those super annoying scrappy middle infielders we all know and love (or hate, depending on the player).

The Louisville duo — you see how deep that squad is this year in the way they have multiple guys at seemingly every position…and that’s with no mention of the 2014’s and 2015’s coming up through the pipeline — is impressive from the outside looking in. Ty Young is the tools guy (speed, versatility, sneaky pop) with upside while Nick Ratajczak is the steady, sure-handed defender who posted eye-catching plate discipline numbers last year (28 BB/9 K in 245 AB). Funny that their names match up with their scouting profiles, at least as far as I’m concerned: “Ty Young” sounds like he should have a little flash to his game and “Nick Ratajczak” just feels hard working and dependable. Or maybe I’m just a crazy person. I’m excited to see more of Tyler Sciacca this year, especially after reviewing my notes on him from the handful of times I saw him in person last season. He was definitely a player that grew on me as the season progressed.

3B

Seton Hall JR 3B Chris Selden
St. John’s SR 3B Sean O’Hare
Cincinnati JR 3B Matt Williams
Pittsburgh SR 3B Sam Parente

My notes on the quartet above are quite sparse — out of the four I only have enough info on Selden to draw any conclusions about his game — but I’ve heard enough generally positive things (e.g. “He doesn’t stink”) combined with what we know about the college production of each — it ranges from passable (Parente, Williams, Selden) to not too bad at all (O’Hare) — to include the names you see above. That right there is a sentence that makes me feel guilty to all who helped me learn to read and write. Chris Selden has the most to prove of the group — he only had 46 AB last year — but brings the most in the way of physical projection to the table.

SS

Rutgers JR SS Nick Favatella
Louisville JR SS Alex Chittenden
Connecticut JR SS Tom Verdi
Seton Hall SR SS Giuseppe Papaccio
Pittsburgh SR SS Evan Oswald

Like the third base bunch above, there’s not a lot of information on my end when it comes to these Big East shortstops. Nick Favatella’s production is what stood out for me: .317/.408/.407 in 2011, .342/.424/.491 in 2012 (42 BB/64 K in just under 400 combined AB). I’d venture Alex Chittenden or Tom Verdi will emerge as most scouts’ favorite of the group, but I’m still on the fence on Chittenden’s long-term defensive forecast. Some might be more optimistic and call that impressive defensive versatility (SS/2B/3B), so far be from me to be the bearer of pessimistic spin. Verdi has an interesting pop/speed combo that makes him a worthwhile follow this spring.

OF

South Florida JR OF James Ramsay
Louisville JR OF Adam Engel
Connecticut rSR OF Billy Ferriter
Louisville JR OF Cole Sturgeon
Pittsburgh JR OF Casey Roche
Louisville JR OF Coco Johnson
Georgetown SR OF Justin Leeson
South Florida rSR OF Alex Mendez
Rutgers JR OF Brian O’Grady
Seton Hall JR OF Zach Granite
Pittsburgh JR OF Stephen Vranka
Notre Dame SR OF Charlie Markson
Seton Hall SR OF Ryan Sullivan
Villanova SR OF Paul Rambaud
St. John’s SR OF Jimmy Brennan
South Florida SR OF Chad Taylor
Villanova JR OF Connor Jones

My guy in Florida raves about James Ramsay’s upside, so he made for an easy choice in the top spot in what appears to be a lackluster group of Big East outfielder talent. Ramsay looks like the only guy you’d draft with the hopes of getting an everyday player, so you’re left looking at flawed prospects who can excel enough in certain areas of their game the rest of the way down. Adam Engel’s speed/instincts (his 38/40 SB mark from last year is as good as I’ve noticed so far), athleticism, and exciting CF range allow him to hold up his end of the bargain. Billy Ferriter, a favorite going on three draft years now, offers a similar, if less “center field-y,” profile. Cole Sturgeon is actually a better direct comparison to Ferriter (above-average speed, potential to be quite good in a corner, flashes of pop/patience at the plate), though there are teams that might put him back on the mound. Same could be said for Alex Mendez, a guy who once sat in the low-90s coming from the left side in high school. Casey Roche is well-rounded, Coco Johnson is fast, and Justin Leeson’s catching past may appeal to teams willing act a little unconventionally.

P

Louisville JR RHP Jeff Thompson
South Florida JR LHP Nick Gonzalez
Pittsburgh JR RHP Matt Wotherspoon
Notre Dame JR RHP Dan Slania
Villanova JR RHP Pat Young
Louisville JR RHP Dace Kime
Notre Dame JR RHP Donald Hissa
Pittsburgh JR RHP Ethan Mildren
St. John’s rJR RHP James Lomangino
Louisville JR RHP Chad Green
Pittsburgh rSO RHP Joe Harvey
Seton Hall SR RHP Jon Prosinski
Connecticut JR LHP Brian Ward
Cincinnati rJR RHP Christian McElroy
Notre Dame JR RHP Cristian Torres
St. John’s SR RHP Anthony Cervone
Connecticut SR RHP Pat Butler
Louisville rSO LHP Kyle McGrath
St. John’s SR RHP Jerome Werniuk
Rutgers rJR RHP Charlie Law
Connecticut SR RHP Ryan Moore
Seton Hall JR RHP Brian Gilbert
Seton Hall SR RHP Frank Morris
St. John’s SR LHP Sean Hagan
Rutgers SR LHP Rob Smorol
Rutgers SR RHP Tyler Gebler
Connecticut JR LHP Anthony Marzi
Cincinnati SR LHP Thomas Gentile
Notre Dame JR RHP Sean Fitzgerald
Louisville JR LHP Cody Ege
Connecticut rSO LHP David Mahoney
South Florida SR RHP Joe Lovecchio
Notre Dame SR RHP Pat Veerkamp
Rutgers SR LHP Rob Corsi
South Florida JR LHP Nolan Thomas
South Florida JR RHP Alex Vetter
Pittsburgh rJR RHP JR Leonardi
Seton Hall SR LHP Rick Mangione
Cincinnati SR RHP Andrew Strenge
Connecticut SR RHP Dan Feehan
Rutgers SR RHP Jerry Elsing
Cincinnati rSO RHP Matt Ring
Georgetown SR RHP Charles Steinman
Connecticut rSO RHP Carson Cross
Villanova JR LHP Matt Meurer
Pittsburgh SR LHP Alex Caravella
Villanova SR RHP Kevin MacLachlan
Villanova JR RHP Matt Lengel
Notre Dame SR RHP Adam Norton
Connecticut rSR RHP Will Jolin
Georgetown SR RHP James Heine
Rutgers SR RHP Pat O’Leary
Seton Hall SR LHP Greg Terhune
Villanova SR RHP Stephen Ostapeck
Georgetown JR RHP Alex Baker

I’d describe the Big East’s group of 2013 pitching talent as good, not great. There’s plenty of size — Thompson is 6-6, 250; Gonzalez is 6-4, 220; Young is 6-7, 210; Kime is 6-5, 220 — but not much in the way of arms likely to ever crack a big league rotation. The biggest — and best, for many — pitcher in the conference is Dan Slania. Slania has gotten a lot of love, but my reluctance to promote jumbo-sized (6-5, 275 pounds) relievers without a knockout breaking ball — again, those who love him disagree with me there — has me lower on him than the majority. I’ve heard the Jonathan Broxton comp, but I think the better point of comparison is Matt Capps. Good prospect, no doubt, but not the potential first day guy I’ve heard others calling him.

Jeff Thompson has the best shot to start in pro ball — 88-92 FB with sink, occasional plus low-80s SL, steady low-80s CU, significant athleticism, strong college track record — so that’s why he’s tops on the list. Pretty simple, really. Nick Gonzalez is a lump of lefthanded clay that I easily envision a pro team taking a chance on earlier than anybody is currently ready to admit. Matt Wotherspoon is underrated and I’m not quite sure why: he can get it up to 93/94/95, flashes a plus breaking ball, and has incorporated a changeup with promise to his repertoire all while putting up strong numbers (8.38 K/9 in 91.1 IP last season) as the workhorse of the Pittsburgh pitching staff. Nothing about that is flashy, I suppose, but it does sound like a guy who could make a strong mark as an above-average big league reliever, at worst. Putting Pat Young fifth on this list may look silly by June. He’s already getting plenty of buzz from the smart fellows at Baseball America and now finds himself in a great position to fly up draft boards. Incidentally, I mistyped his name initially as “Pay Young.” Soon enough. I’ll be seeing him a ton this spring.

2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Mountain West Conference

20 Feb 2013 12:30 AM / 2 Comments on 2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Mountain West Conference

Aaron Judge and DJ Peterson headline this year’s group of Mountain West Conference prospects. Both could hit their way into this year’s draft first round, especially if you believe that Judge can handle center field in the pros and Peterson can remain at third base. I think both guys will wind up sliding down the defensive spectrum a bit, but still see Judge as a potential first round pick thanks to a better package of tools outside of the batter’s box. I like Peterson just fine and can get behind an argument that supports him as a first round pick and the better overall prospect to Judge, but, as you’ll read below, I straight up love Judge.

Bold = locks to be drafted
Italics = definite maybes
Underlined = possible risers
Plain text = long shots

C

New Mexico SR C Mitchell Garver
Air Force SR C Garrett Custons
Fresno State SR C Austin Wynns
Fresno State rSR C Trent Garrison
San Diego State rSO C Brad Haynal
San Diego State SR C Jake Romanski
UNLV rSR C Ryan Scott

Top to bottom I think the catching position is the MWC’s deepest in 2013. What it lacks in star power — or, more honestly, starter power — it makes up for in quality depth. That depth could be turned into a handful of dependable big league backup backstops in due time, if the drafting team in each case is patient. I think Mitchell Garver could really take off in pro ball, especially on the defensive side. Get his throwing motion and footwork cleaned up, and there’s no reason he can’t make it as an above-average number two catcher. Garrett Custons’ bat is a little bit lighter, but his athleticism and plus-plus arm strength make him an ideal fit for a defense-first backup. Austin Wynns (standout receiver) and Trent Garrison (another legit plus-plus arm) give Fresno State a pair of veteran catchers most teams would knock themselves out over. Brad Haynal and Jake Romanski still have some proving to do with the bat, but both are above-average or better defenders. Haynal in particular is worth watching, thanks to some interesting tools and the intrigue of his return from a broken leg last season.

1B

New Mexico JR 1B DJ Peterson
Air Force JR 1B Seth Kline
Nevada SR 1B Brett Jones

The book on Peterson, the conference’s 1B prospect to Aaron Judge’s 1A, is fairly simple: raw power that rivals any hitter in the college game, explosive wrists, lightning in his forearms, and exciting hand/eye coordination that all add up to easy elite bat speed, and defense that can generously be projected as questionable at the pro level. The kindest report I’ve gotten on his glove at third has been “average at best,” so chalk the decision to list him as a 1B up to my theory that guys on the defensive fence as amateurs tend to topple over to the easier to play position sooner rather than later upon entering the pros. As tantalizing as the power is, I have a hard time giving a R/R first base (or, best case scenario, left field) prospect a first round grade at this point. If he slips enough in the draft — as I suspect he will, though it has to be mentioned..for anybody out there without a calendar of their own — that we’re a long way between now and June — then his most likely pro outcome (platoon player) starts to look pretty good.

2B

San Diego State JR 2B Tim Zier
Fresno State JR 2B Jake Alvarez

Tim Zier is probably more of a senior sign to watch in 2014, but he is such a fun college player to watch — rock steady glove, never gives away at bats, smart base runner — that I wouldn’t be stunned if an area scout falls in love with his game and recommends him just early enough to make signing him away from San Diego State a possibility.

SS

New Mexico SR SS Alex Allbritton (2013): 6-2, 185 pounds (2011: .234/.283/.303 – 13 BB/41 K – 218 AB) (2012: .222/.247/.280 – 8 BB/54 K – 2/4 SB – 207 AB)

Allbritton was the best I could come up with in my search for a viable 2013 MWC shortstop worth drafting. Allbritton hit .222/.247/.280 last season with 8 BB/54 K in 207 AB. Statement 1 + Statement 2 = there’s not a whole lot of 2013 middle infield talent in the conference this year.

OF

Fresno State JR OF Aaron Judge
Nevada JR OF Brad Gerig
Nevada SR OF Brooks Klein
UNLV SR OF Brandon Bayardi
New Mexico SR OF Josh Melendez
New Mexico rSR OF Luke Campbell
Air Force SR OF Alex Bast
New Mexico JR OF Chase Harris
Nevada SR OF Jamison Rowe

This is probably way too simplistic, but this past weekend works as a decent example of what I expect out of Aaron Judge this year. Series opener on Friday: 0-5, 3 K. Series finale on Sunday: 3-4, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, SB. There are going to be days like Friday to be sure, but I expect a lot more outings like Sunday as the season heats up. He’s still rough around the edges in many ways — his power is more theoretical than real life and his size makes him a historical outlier from the get go — but he does so many things so darn well (speed, defense, arm, approach, and, yes, raw power) that you can’t help but appreciate him as a prospect. Judge’s star is ascending, and I’m happy to have two feet firmly on the bandwagon as it rumbles its way towards June. One big thing I’m looking forward to tracking this year: Judge’s performances against upper-echelon pitching. The one knock on his game that I’ve heard from multiple sources is whether or not his current swing setup will work against pitchers who have both a) premium stuff, and b) an idea about pitch sequencing. Early in the count I’ll take him over just about any college bat, but can he make the necessary adjustments within each at bat to continue being successful at the pro level? Again, I’m quite bullish on Judge’s future, though it’s worth noting he’s got the same ominous R/R profile as Peterson.

I don’t know a ton about Brad Gerig, but literally everything I’ve heard about him so far has been positive. We’re talking no major weaknesses — average hit tool and range are the lowest grades I’ve gotten across the board — with enough power/speed to break out in a big way in 2013.

P

Nevada JR RHP Braden Shipley
New Mexico JR RHP Tyler Spencer
San Diego State SR RHP Travis Pitcher
New Mexico JR RHP Jake McCasland
Fresno State JR LHP Tyler Linehan
New Mexico SR RHP Sam Wolff
San Diego State JR RHP Philip Walby
UNLV JR RHP Zach Hartman
San Diego State JR RHP Justin Hepner
San Diego State SR RHP Ethan Miller
San Diego State JR RHP TJ Kendzora
Fresno State rSO LHP Aaron Gillis
New Mexico JR RHP Josh Walker
Air Force JR RHP Cameron White
UNLV JR RHP Buddy Borden
Air Force SR LHP Ben Bertelson
San Diego State SR RHP Bryan Crabb
San Diego State SR RHP Ryan Doran
New Mexico JR RHP Anthony Consiglio
Nevada SR RHP Tom Jameson
New Mexico JR RHP AJ Carman

Braden Shipley is going to rank very, very high up on my overall ranking of college pitchers (coming soon!). If I was better at searching this site, I’d look up every pitcher that I’ve described as my “ideal” pitching prospect or a pitcher “invented in a lab” to suit my needs or whatever other dumb phrase I’ve used to describe my idea of a “perfect” pitching prospect. Shipley rings every bell: easy velocity (92-95 as starter, has hit upwards of 97 in short bursts), low-80s change with above-average upside, solid upper-70s curve, good athleticism, improved command, good glove, effective pickoff move, sturdy frame with room to build on (6-3, 180 pounds), and experience as a hitter (.265/.351/.346 in 136 AB in 2011). I think he’s likely one of those guys I like a lot more than professional talent evaluators, but that’s alright: he may not be a first round, household name come June, but I still think he’s a future big leaguer.

I honestly believe Travis Pitcher is underrated because of his last name. If he was Travis Jones, we’d talk more about his three average or better pitches and strong frame than his name. As somebody who really enjoys fun names, I hope my endorsement of Pitcher comes from a position of some authority. Tyler Spencer is a favorite because he throws nothing straight: good sink and run on low-90s fastball, occasional plus slider, decent sinking change, and a new cutter that could be a weapon in time. Tyler Linehan has a long track record of success, no to mention above-average velocity for a lefthander and a potential plus slider. Sam Wolff is a guy I’ve liked since his days at Southern Nevada: when he’s going good, he’ll throw all four of his average or better pitches for strikes, showing good overall polish and a smooth, repeatable delivery.

2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Ivy League

18 Feb 2013 12:24 AM / Leave a comment

A very entertaining opening weekend is in the books. Rather than drawing any groundbreaking conclusions from three days of baseball, we’ll keep rolling with conference previews. I enjoy the conference previews, so I’m good with this, but I have to admit that not being able to get worked up over a weekend of games (from a scouting perspective, not from an enjoyment viewpoint) is one of the things that bums me out about following the MLB Draft. I’m envious of the college football/NFL Draft guys who get to watch hours of game tape all season long, to say nothing of the five or so months they get between the end of the regular season and draft day. Drawing any kind of conclusions from such a small sample size of games — Mark Appel and Sean Manaea are falling down boards! Greg Allen has passed Carlos Rodon as the top 2014 prospect! Clint Freeman is the next Babe Ruth! — isn’t a great idea, though I get why it is done. In fact, I do think there is something to be learned from even a quick one game sample. Appel’s struggles on Friday night are the perfect example of this: his stuff was as strong as ever, but his biggest ongoing issue (command) did him in once again. Not an earth shaking bit of information, but interesting nonetheless.

Anyway, here are some smart guys who also happen to be pretty good at sports…

Bold = locks to be drafted
Italics = definite maybes
Underlined = possible risers
Plain text = long shots

C

Dartmouth JR C Jeff Keller
Brown JR C Wes Van Boom
Princeton JR C Bobby Geren

Three big names behind the plate in the Ivy Leagues this year, all for different reasons. The best player in the league is Jeff Keller; quite frankly, it isn’t remotely close. Keller’s an elite athlete with a patient approach and good present power. He may not fit the mold of a traditional backstop, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing: his defensive versatility could eventually be his ticket to the big leagues. In a decent year for Ivy League bats, he’s the best prospect of the lot. The best name in the league belongs to Wes Van Boom. As great a last name as Van Boom so clearly is, it is made so much more poetic with the short and sweet first name Wes. WVB has nice pop, but an approach that is far from professional quality. The most famous name in the league is Bobby Geren, son of former big league catcher and manager Bob Geren. In the grand tradition of spending a late round pick on immediate family, keep an eye on Bobby going late to the Mets this June. I doubt it happens — Bobby has barely played in two years at Princeton — but it wouldn’t be the first time a team that employed Bob drafted Bobby: Bobby went in the 36th round to Oakland when Bob managed the A’s.

1B

Dartmouth JR 1B Dustin Selzer
Penn SR 1B Spencer Branigan
Dartmouth SR 1B Ennis Coble
Columbia SR 1B Alex Black
Brown SR 1B Cody Slaughter

Lots of solid college sluggers to choose from this year, but Dustin Selzer (good size, good eye, good present power) and Spencer “Zapp” Branigan (good size, iffy eye, good raw power) are the leaders heading into the season.

2B

Princeton JR 2B Alec Keller
Cornell SR 2B Brenton Peters
Brown JR 2B JJ Franco

Another position group led by a man named Keller. This time it is Alec getting top billing, and quite rightfully so. Keller does everything right as a hitter: pretty swing, good balance, whole field approach, lots of contact, nice patience, gap power, bat speed to spare, you name it. If scouts are with me on being bullish on him defensively — he’d be in the outfield otherwise — then I could see him as a big riser between now and June.

3B

Penn JR 3B Rick Brebner

Senior sign, maybe.

SS

Yale JR SS Cale Hanson

Senior sign, maybe. Bonus point for having one of the most Yale names ever.

OF

Cornell JR OF Chris Cruz
Princeton SR OF John Mishu
Columbia SR OF Nick Ferraresi
Cornell SR OF Spenser Souza
Penn SR OF Ryan Deitrich
Cornell JR OF Ben Swinford
Princeton SR OF Steve Harrington
Penn JR OF Brandon Engelhardt
Brown SR OF John Sheridan

I saw a good bit of Chris Cruz last years, so…alright, I actually don’t know how to finish that thought. I guess in my head I was going to go with the whole “I saw him play, so you should bow down before my expert opinion of him,” but that’s so asinine a statement that I couldn’t even bring myself to joke about it. I did see him play against Penn and he looked like a guy who could play his way into draft consideration this June. The tools are there — strong arm, 55 speed, good looking swing — but we’re talking fifth outfielder upside in an ideal world. As nice a prospect as he is, I’m likely going to skip Cornell’s weekend series at Villanova (well, maybe I’ll swing by on Friday for Pat Young) this year because, honestly, one viewing was enough to see you’re almost certainly dealing with a late-round 2014 senior sign in Cruz. Only in the world of amateur baseball can you be a prospect (draftable talent with some upside) and a non-prospect (realistically, the odds of any player drafted outside of the first few rounds making it ain’t good) at the same time. He and his teammates did show off an impressive ability to eat Jimmy John’s sandwiches at what had to be a record rate in between games of the scheduled double-header.

P

Princeton SR RHP Zak Hermans
Dartmouth JR LHP Mitch Horacek
Princeton JR LHP Michael Fagan
Yale JR LHP David Hickey
Columbia SR RHP Tim Giel
Columbia JR RHP Joe Donino
Columbia SR RHP Stefan Olson
Columbia JR LHP Joey Gandolfo
Dartmouth SR LHP Kyle Hunter
Harvard SR RHP Matt Doyle
Harvard rSO RHP Sam Dodge
Columbia JR LHP David Speer
Dartmouth SR RHP Cole Sulser
Brown JR RHP Anthony Galan
Yale JR RHP Kevin Fortunato
Penn JR RHP Cody Thomson
Princeton JR RHP AJ Goetz
Penn SR RHP John Beasley
Dartmouth SR LHP Michael Johnson
Cornell JR RHP Connor Kaufmann
Cornell SR RHP Houston Hawley
Princeton JR RHP Mike Ford
Penn JR LHP Matt Gotschall

Lots of potential future relievers to be found in the Ivy League this year, I think. The above-average fastball/breaking ball combination is common among the names at the top of the list. Zak Hermans (plus SL), Mitch Horacek (above-average CB), Michael Fagan (above-average SL), and David Hickey (above-average CB) all also sit between 88-92 with their fastballs (Fagan with the highest heat, peaking at 94), so all fit the bill. Of the group, Hickey has the least velocity, but the most advanced third pitch, a changeup with above-average upside. Consider that my endorsement for Hickey as the 2013 Ivy League arm most likely to make it as a starting pitcher in pro ball.

Opening Day Free Association

15 Feb 2013 3:18 PM / Leave a comment

With a little time to kill this afternoon, I figured why not just fire up a Word doc and start writing. I began with the idea of picking conference favorites based solely on draft talent alone, and, as you’ll read, the idea kind of evolved a little along the way. Ain’t nothing wrong with a little steam of consciousness to kickoff the weekend, right? I wanted to do every single conference, but common sense and laziness eventually got the better of me. Here’s what I came up with…

ACC: Hard to top North Carolina, especially their loaded pitching staff, but the battle for number two is interesting. North Carolina State’s dynamic 2014 class (Rodon, Turner, Jernigan, Austin, Fincher) gives them the nod, but Virginia Tech’s bats (Pinder, Horan, Zagunis) and Virginia’s 2014 core (Fisher, Papi, Howard) are nothing to ignore. Also, mark my words: Miami is primed for a major run sooner rather than later. Fieger, Broad, Mack, Carey, Palmer, and Hernandez should form the nucleus of a strong 2013 lineup. The future, however, is what is most exciting. A staff with Suarez, Diaz, and Grandinette looks good on paper, and the bats of Thompson, Neitzel, Tresgallo, and, my favorite, Heyman should bring the Hurricanes back to national prominence.

Big East: This one’s easy. Louisville [gap] Notre Dame [big gap] South Florida? Connecticut? There’s a serious distinction between the potentially great in 2013 Cardinals and Irish and everybody else in the conference. Not that anybody’s doing it, but don’t sleep on Notre Dame. Louisville’s staff is ridiculous, but Notre Dame has two big bats (Jagielo and Mancini) better than any hitter the Cardinals have, plus a 2014 pitcher (Connaughton) who ranks up there with any of their best pitching prospects (Burdi, Thompson, Ruxer, Green, Kime).

SEC: Seriously, go get yourself a die and roll it to see which of these six teams will come out ahead in the standings this year. LSU, Mississippi, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Florida, Texas A&M are all stacked. Each team has a big-time pro arm (most have multiple) and names like Eades, Wahl, Stanek, Ziomek, and Crawford will all be mowing down big league batters before too long. Friday nights in the SEC will be a lot of fun…shoot, then again so will Saturdays and Sundays. I’m flustered just thinking about the talent level in this league. Really can’t wait to do their 2013 Draft conference breakdown.

Big 12: Oklahoma’s pitching is really strong (Gray, Waltrip, Overton, Hayes), but the bats appear to be light. Light enough that I think the Big 12 race ultimately comes down to TCU and Texas. TCU’s pitching is up there with the best in the conference (Mitchell, Teakell, Crichton, Ferrell) and the lineup, while not exactly loaded with pro talent, is experienced, battle-tested, and [insert third veteran cliche here]. Witte, Odell, Hendrix, Johnson, Suiter, and Cron make up a really nice group to build on. Texas counters with a lineup featuring Weiss, Felts, McElroy, Hinojosa, and a crowded outfield of Payton, Moynihan, Walla, and Hall. Their staff of Knebel, Urban, Thornhill, Peters, and French stacks up pretty well with TCU’s. Call it a pick-em, with a slight edge to TCU.

Pac-12: The Civil War rages on as I think Oregon and Oregon State are 1-2 in some order in terms of pro talent in the conference. Well, maybe we should open up that competition to include both UCLA and Stanford as well. See, this is why I don’t normally like to dip my toe into the college game. I am really bad at the whole prognostication business. Stanford has talent that rivals some teams’ minor league system: Appel, Vanegas, Wilson, Ragira, Kauppila, Jose, Blandino, Slater, Taylor, Avis, and Starwalt all could/should/might be big leaguers. This brings up what has become one of my favorite annual questions: is there a college team that you’d trade straight up for your team’s minor league system? It seems the Angels have the consensus worst farm system in baseball this year. Would you rather have Stanford’s roster over the top 20-30 prospects in the Angels system? The presence of an elite prospect like Appel helps tip the scales, and a second big get in Wilson certainly doesn’t hurt. Typically I’d like two elite hitting prospects before making the swap, but I think it is pretty clear you are better off with the group of Cardinal talent than otherwise. UCLA’s recent tradition of pitching excellence should continue with names like Plutko, Weiss, Vander Tuig, Virant, Kaprielian, and Poteet. There’s never a bad day to catch that staff throw. Both Washington and Washington State lurk as sleepers.

Big 10: Indiana over Michigan and Ohio State for me, thanks. Indiana’s bats (Cureton, DeMuth, Schwarber, Travis, Clark) help them win out. The conference is wide open, though: I could see Minnesota’s quality pitching getting them into the conference’s best conversation.

My College Travel Itinerary

15 Feb 2013 1:30 PM / 2 Comments on My College Travel Itinerary

This is more for me to have all this information in one place than what I’d consider to be super interesting content, but I figured it couldn’t hurt to make my tentative schedule known as we get this year’s season of college baseball rolling. My travel is limited by work, lack of funds, life stuff (you see such a spike of wedding invites once you hit your late-20s), and, last but not least, being blessed with the hip of a 65-year old. I do the best I can with what I’ve got, though. Here’s the early schedule I mapped out this morning…

Teams I’ll definitely be seeing in 2013:

Villanova
Penn
Temple
St. Joseph’s
La Salle
Rutgers
Dartmouth
Harvard
Connecticut
Princeton
Charlotte
Columbia
Louisville
Rhode Island

Northeast baseball, catch the fever! Bummed I’m missing Notre Dame, but thrilled beyond words to see Louisville. Also pleased that the Villanova/Louisville series isn’t until May 3-5…gives the northeast plenty of time to warm up between now and then.

Teams I’m very likely to see in 2013:

Vanderbilt
Florida
North Carolina
Virginia
North Carolina State
Duke
Indiana State
Creighton

I’m contemplating double dipping with Vandy this year, so that I can also hit up the Mississippi State series. We’ll see. My only dilemma on the local schedule is about what game I want to see on my personal version of 2013 opening day (3/16). My choices are George Washington (@Penn), Marist (@Villanova), or Penn State (@Temple). Leaning Marist right now, but could be convinced to go to any of the three. The most convenient would be GW/Penn, so perhaps that’ll win out by default. I might swap out Temple/Charlotte for West Chester/Millersville, especially if the pitching matchup (Joe Gunkel/Tim Mayza) works out. Doing either game would eliminate any chance of seeing Vanderbilt a second time, so, again, we’ll see. Tentative schedules be tentative, y’all. Oh yeah, for the record, I checked the three schools in the research triangle (UNC, NC State, Duke) to see if they were all home at once during the season. They are not. The idea of seeing six teams play in three stadiums over three days is awesome to me, but I’ll settle seeing UNC/UVA and NC State/Duke. If I get stir crazy without live baseball to watch between now and my northeast version of opening day (3/16!), I might move my trip to Carolina up and see UNC/Miami and Duke/Virginia Tech, substituting a Boston College/NC State series up in Chestnut Hill later on in the spring to make up for missing the Wolfpack down south. So many moving parts!

Teams I’m really hoping to see in 2013, but can’t yet fully commit to seeing:

San Diego
Oregon State
the rest of the ACC during the conference tournament in Durham

The biggest bummer of a scheduling conflict for me this year has to be Fresno State @ UNLV happening the same weekend as Louisville @ Villanova. As much as I love both Vegas and Aaron Judge, it is really hard to justify the travel, expense, and potential work week hangover when I have arguably the most talented team in the country visiting a hometown school. I’m not sure how or when I’ll pull together a trip to Southern California this spring, but it is very high on the priority list. Seeing San Diego is my top preference (USD/OSU in late March would cost me Rutgers, a trade I’m just fine with), but UCLA would work as well. I have to do some thinking there.

I also want to see this high school game with these two Georgia outfield prospects you may have heard of in March, but the logistics on that still need to be finalized. They’ll also be plenty of other opportunities (day trip!) to see the top prep players in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and New England. Should be a fun few months.

Opening Day

15 Feb 2013 10:36 AM / Leave a comment

Boston College/VCU and BYU/Northern Colorado kick both get started in a little bit less than two hours. Whichever game gets the first pitch off first will have the honor of officially opening the 2013 Division I baseball schedule. To honor this most wonderful of baseball days, let’s take a quick spin around what you (yes, you!) need to know about the internet’s best ways to ingest college ball this year.

I’ve said it before and I’m happy to say it again: the most indispensable site for what I do here on the site is the data page at College Splits. I can’t say enough about how much that site has helped me in my goal to have a strong quantitative counter to the overwhelming amount of scouting notes I’ve accrued over the years. The mix of stats and scouting is so important to what I do, and I’d go crazy running around from site to site looking for the former without the searchable database that only College Splits offers. The park/schedule adjusted stats make it darn near perfect.

A close second in the race for most valuable site is D1 Baseball. Every team, every game, every schedule, every box score. Once the season starts, this site might as well act as my unofficial home page. I’m a fairly normal guy in most respects — steady job, wrapping up grad school, good relationship, leading man smile — but the amount of time I’ve spent on College Splits and D1 Baseball (with no rooting interest in the sport, by the way) over the past few years is enough to get me committed. I purposely didn’t plan a trip to see a game tonight — tomorrow is a different story, stay tuned for that — just so I could be around to read every single box score I can as today’s set of games unfold. Here are the links for this weekend’s games:

If all you do this year is check in on those two sites on a daily basis, you’re good to go. But why limit yourself? Another thing I’ve said time and time again, but don’t mind repeating is my admiration for the work Aaron Fitt puts in at Baseball America. He’s a hard guy to link to because he doesn’t have a specific author’s page or anything — here’s the college preview, written by various members of the staff but Fitt’s stuff is clearly noticeable as a step above — so my suggestion is to just cruise around the BA site and read everything you can with his byline. His first weekend preview of the year is a good starting point. The two high school guys, Nathan Rode and Conor Glassey, are very, very good as well, especially Rode.

A notch below is where you’ll find Perfect Game’s Kendall Rogers. Rogers is really good at what he does — all college ball, all the time — but he’s not a great fit for what I do here, simply because I’m more of a pro prospect guy than a straight up fan of college baseball. Like Fitt, the man has an outstanding network of sources and is at the top of the charts when it comes to breaking news. He’s also an undeniably great follow on Twitter – very informative, limited personal mumbo jumbo. All of the guys dedicated to prospects at Perfect Game — off the top of my head I’ll single out Patrick Ebert, Frankie Piliere, David Rawnsley, Todd Gold, Jeff Dahn, and, when we’re lucky, Jerry Ford — are excellent evaluators and writers. You have to take much of what they say about high school talent with a grain of salt — they are in the business of promoting guys who play at their showcases, after all — but when one of those guys writes something, I read it.

A guy I link with Rogers in my mind is College Baseball Today’s Eric Sorenson. You don’t read Sorenson for prospect information, but you can always count on him for funny, insightful, and comprehensive (to say the least) views on the game. Like Rogers, the guy clearly has a passion for college baseball and it comes across beautifully in his writing. As the two primary college ball only guy (non-prospect division), Rogers gets the edge in breaking news and appears to have more resources to work with at his disposal, but Sorenson writes so damn well that you can’t help but read and enjoy.

I owe a great deal to Baseball Prospectus for turning me into the baseball fan I am today. The golden years of that site — I’d put it around my time in college, so ’04-’08ish — provided content that taught me something new on a daily basis. I don’t check in these days as often as I did then — they’ve lost a lot of good men and women, there’s more competition, there’s less work to be done fighting the good fight — but whenever I do, there’s something there that will either make me think…or make me laugh. Can’t ask for much more than that, right? The bad news is that I’ve never been a huge fan of their brand of prospect coverage. I’m happy to get into why at a later date — today is a happy day, so I won’t dwell too much on negatives if I can help it — but I’m encouraged by the idea of their new “scouting staff.” In theory it’s a great thought and I think Jason Parks is a fine choice to lead the team, but I have my doubts about actual names brought in to do the “scouting.” Say what you will about the departed Kevin Goldstein, but the man knew how to take a step back and let his sources do the talking, especially when it came to the amateur draft. Consider this entire paragraph one great big “wait and see” with respect to their upcoming draft coverage. It always bummed me out that they would ignore amateur ball until late-May and then swoop in as experts on the subject, so hopefully, if nothing else, the increased year-round emphasis will create a more creditable final product.

The number one thing I love about Baseball America’s draft coverage is their reliance on contacts within the game. There’s very little “scouting” done by their staff, and I consider that a good thing. They watch the games and report on what they see, but don’t base their opinions solely on their personal views. I guess this doubles as my indirect criticism of ESPN’s Keith Law. I like Law enough, but too often get the impression he thinks what he sees in one game supersedes the information that professional scouts have literally been gathering for years. I also think it’s a shame that ESPN no longer has a writer dedicated solely to amateur baseball. I get that you need context when evaluating prospects — it’s good that Law sees a variety of ball, from the bigs to the minors to the college/HS ranks — but at some point you have to believe the content is just stretched too thin. The loss of rising star Kiley McDaniel (now at Fox Sports) hurts in this regard. I’m excited to follow McDaniel at Fox Sports this spring, by the way. He’s another guy with a highly recommended Twitter feed.

I can’t finish up without mentioning one of my favorite indy sites, Big League Futures. I don’t check in on the site as often as I should, but the guys over there, especially Matt Grabusky, have done a great job of doing what I had originally sought out to do: aggregating the best in amateur prospect coverage on a daily basis and linking it all in one spot. In a sense, it’s almost like MLB Trade Rumors but for college and high school prospects. Much of the original content doesn’t thrill me, but the value of that aggregation makes it a quality site worth bookmarking.

2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: West Coast Conference

14 Feb 2013 12:55 AM / Leave a comment

College baseball starts tomorrow and there is still one team that has yet to post their 2013 rosters online. Alcorn State was the second to last holdout, but they’ve finally caved. We’re just waiting on South Carolina now. Get with it, Gamecocks!

Incidentally, there is a lot of content ready to see the light of day. I’ve long preferred the research aspect of the site over the writing, but I think I’m finally at the point where I’ve done enough homework on the college game to spend more time writing up some more conference draft previews. Happy to take suggestions if anybody’s up for it. I also have some other ideas kicking around my head that might be fun…if I can pull them off. Stay tuned. Until then, let’s talk WCC…

Bold = locks to be drafted
Italics = definite maybes
Underlined = possible risers
Plain text = long shots

C

Loyola Marymount SR C Colton Plaia
San Diego SR C Dillon Haupt
Portland rSR C Beau Fraser
Pepperdine rSR C Nate Johnson
San Diego rSR C Austin Green
San Francisco JR C Zachary Turner
Santa Clara SR C Quinton Perry

The WCC has a fun group of veteran catchers with the potential to position themselves as viable mid-round senior sign candidates with strong springs. Colton Plaia is the best of the bunch thanks to his average power, decent plate discipline, and average or better (arm is average, glove is better) defensive ability. Dillon Haupt is a large man (6-5, 225 pounds) who can really throw. Nate Johnson has a picture perfect swing, but he’ll have to put it to use this upcoming season if he wants to hear his name crackled over the speaker phone on draft day. Converted outfielder Austin Green is a really good athlete with intriguing defensive upside behind the dish, but, much like Beau Fraser and Johnson, 2013 represents a make or break season with the bat. I guess calling a college player’s senior season “make or break” is kind of unnecessary, but, let’s face it, unnecessary commentary is what I do best.

1B

Portland JR 1B Turner Gill
Pepperdine SR 1B Sam Meyer

Turner Gill may get pegged as a first base/corner outfield tweener (not enough bat for 1B, not quite enough foot speed for the OF), but I still can’t help but like the guy as a prospect. I’m fairly predictable about these things, so no big shock that I like a player with good raw power and a solid approach (23 BB/25 K last year).

2B

Gonzaga SR 2B Clayton Eslick
Loyola Marymount SR 2B Cullen Mahoney
Gonzaga SR 2B Steven Halcomb
San Francisco SR 2B Jason Mahood
Santa Clara SR 2B Justin Viele
Brigham Young JR 2B Adam Law

I won’t pretend to know a whole lot about Clayton Eslick other than reading his name in my Word doc here and there over the years, but his 2012 numbers (.350/.469/.447 with 33 BB/15 K in 197 AB) are enough to get me to pay attention in 2013. As much as I’m intrigued by Eslick, I think it’s more than fair to say that Cullen Mahoney’s tools give him the edge in upside.

3B

Loyola Marymount JR 3B Kevin Garcia
Brigham Young JR 3B Dillon Robinson

Never a good thing when the only notable thing about a position group is the missing name. Astute draft fans, followers of the WCC, or friends/family of the omitted player need not worry: the conference’s best prospect still gets his due, but count me as one of the first willing to accept the reality that Kris Bryant’s best professional position will be right field.

SS

San Diego JR SS Logan Davis
Santa Clara JR SS Gregory Harisis
Loyola Marymount SR SS Joey Boney

Logan Davis has a sterling defensive reputation, Gregory Harisis is coming off a very productive 2012 season (.366/.435/.447 with 13 BB and 19 K), and Joey Boney is named Joey Boney.

OF

San Diego JR OF Kris Bryant
San Diego rSO OF Louie Lechich
Pepperdine SO OF Aaron Brown
Brigham Young JR OF Jaycob Brugman
Gonzaga SR OF Billy Moon
Pepperdine rSO OF Bryan Langlois
Loyola Marymount SR OF Matt Lowenstein
Pepperdine rSR OF Chris Amezquita
San Francisco SR OF Justin Maffei
Brigham Young JR OF Kelton Caldwell
St. Mary’s SR OF Brenden Kalfus
St. Mary’s SR OF Cole Norton
Santa Clara JR OF Casey Munoz
Santa Clara SR OF Matt Ozanne
Loyola Marymount rSR OF Zac Fujimoto
San Diego SR OF AJ Robinson
San Diego rSR OF Dillon Checkal

I need to go back and do some research on this idea because I find it particularly interesting, but, in the meantime, a crackpot theory: amateur prospects, especially college prospects, with two potential professional defensive landing spots, tend to gravitate towards the less strenuous position sooner rather than later after signing pro contracts. As with most (all?) of my theories, this seems like common sense more than anything. Too often, however, draft season gets us all in a tizzy — happens to me every single year — and we begin dreaming on best case scenarios over the far more likely realities.

I should have applied this logic to Richie Shaffer last year (my head said 1B, my heart wanted so badly to believe 3B…for what I hope is the last time, my stupid heart won out), and I’ll be damned if I’m going to get burned on another similar player this year. Bryant might be able to play 3B at the pro level, but, really, what would you put the odds of him doing so effectively? 25%? Projecting him at his far more likely position seems like the smart way to go. As I’ve said before, I think Bryant will be a well above-average regular in right field if given the chance. I wasn’t a huge fan of his when he was a senior in high school, but the improvement he’s shown since then — the only thing that looks better than his modified swing is his much sleeker physique — says something about what kind of prospect he is. As a draft prospect, think of him as a safer version of last year’s 39th overall pick, Joey Gallo. His old high school comp of Troy Glaus — one of those so obvious comps that you can’t help but see it — also makes a lot of sense as a pro ceiling. That’s big time.

Bryant’s teammate Louie Lechich hasn’t put up nearly the same numbers that Bryant has so far, but he’s a darn fine prospect in his own right. There is little that Lechich can’t do on the field as he’s one of this year’s class’ underrated five-tool talents. He’s shown average or better with all five tools at one point or another in his amateur days. If the Cal transfer taps into his raw power this year, watch out. Also worth noting my love of old comps that I can’t quit: in Lechich’s case, the comparison — pretty sure it was from Perfect Game, but I forgot to make a note of the origin — was Jim Edmonds. This obviously wasn’t meant to be a direct professional future style of comp (i.e. don’t expect the same numbers and career path), but more of a style, skill set, and physical build comparison. I also think it is fairly obvious that Lechich isn’t quite on the same level of Edmonds, a Hall of Famer in my nonexistent book, but rather a starting point based on the above three points (style, skill set, physical build) for those unfamiliar with his game.

Aaron Brown is a fun prospect because of his upside as a plus glove in CF or a power lefty capable of hitting the mid-90s with relative ease. Unrefined (5 K to every BB as a hitter, almost a walk an inning as a pitcher) doesn’t even begin to define his game, however, so any bet on him at this point is based entirely on his considerable physical gifts.

Quick hits on a few of the rest…Jaycob Brugman has enticing bat speed…Billy Moon is a defensive weapon in CF…Matt Lowenstein has consistently shown off a top of the lineup approach to hitting. All fit in nicely in the draft’s middle rounds with Brugman offering the greatest chance to move up.

P

Gonzaga JR LHP Marco Gonzales
San Diego JR RHP Dylan Covey
San Diego JR RHP Michael Wagner
Pepperdine JR RHP Scott Frazier
San Francisco JR RHP Alex Balog
St. Mary’s JR LHP Jordan Mills
Brigham Young JR RHP Adam Miller
St. Mary’s JR LHP Ben Griset
Gonzaga rSR LHP Tyler Olson
Pepperdine rJR RHP Jared Lee
Pepperdine JR RHP Michael Swanner
San Diego JR RHP Trevor Bayless
Gonzaga JR RHP Arturo Reyes
San Diego SO LHP Max Homick
San Diego JR LHP Max MacNabb
Santa Clara SR RHP Tommy Nance
Santa Clara rJR RHP Kenny Treadwell
San Francisco rJR RHP Abe Bobb
Loyola Marymount SR LHP Justin Grijalva
Brigham Young JR RHP Marc Oslund
Pepperdine JR RHP Corey Miller
Pepperdine SR LHP Alex Najera
St. Mary’s JR LHP Ryan Brockett
Loyola Marymount SR RHP Aaron Griffin
Brigham Young SR RHP Matt Milke
Loyola Marymount JR RHP Bret Dahlson
San Francisco SR RHP Haden Hinkle
St. Mary’s SR RHP Patrick Keane
Pepperdine JR RHP Eric Karch
Brigham Young JR RHP Desmond Poulson
St. Mary’s JR RHP Thomas Cortese
Gonzaga rSO RHP Derek Peterson
Santa Clara rSR RHP Mike Couch
Brigham Young SR LHP Mark Anderson
Pepperdine SR LHP Brian McIlhenny
Santa Clara SR RHP Brock Simon
Pepperdine JR LHP Matt Maurer
Gonzaga JR RHP Kenny Smith
Santa Clara JR LHP Powell Fansler

I have Marco Gonzales as the top pitching prospect in the conference — a well-earned designation thanks in large part to his phenomenal changeup, arguably the best pitch of its kind in this year’s class — but any of his fellow bold brothers could overtake him by June. (Quick aside: As always, I sincerely hope that this year’s premier two-way college star gets drafted by a National League team. I want to see these two-way pitching prospects hit, damn it.). A full season of good health could help Dylan Covey retake his place at the top of the heap. Scott Frazier’s size, stuff (more sinker/slider than in his high school days, but the flashes of above-average offspeed stuff help round out his repertoire), groundball tendencies, and prep pedigree will keep him in the running for a first day selection. Michael Wagner is my pick for most likely to overtake Gonzales, if it happens at all. Wagner’s potential for four average or better pitches, command, pro build with room yet to grow (6-4, 185 pounds), and strong performances to date (over 8 K/9 through two seasons) make him a favorite.

Alex Balog could move way up between now and June; if so, I could then see him quickly moving through the minors once drafted. Hitters get bad swings off his mid-90s heat, and his offspeed stuff (change, slider) complement it quite well. Jordan Mills has similar stuff, but with a little less fastball (92 peak). Either one of San Diego’s pitchers named Max (Homick and MacNabb) could rise way up as well.

2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Sun Belt

6 Feb 2013 12:35 AM / 3 Comments on 2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Sun Belt

Slowly but surely we are working our way through our tour of the conferences. Mountain West, West Coast, and Ivy League are all lined up and ready to go. Until then, all the best the Sun Belt has to offer…

Here’s the key for the player lists:

Bold = locks to be drafted
Italics = definite maybes
Underlined = possible risers
Plain text = long shots

And away we go…

C

Florida Atlantic SR C Mike Spano
Arkansas-Little Rock SR C Myles Parma
South Alabama SR C Whitt Dorsey
Arkansas-Little Rock SR C Blake Johnson
Louisiana-Lafayette rSO C Mike Strentz
Western Kentucky SR C Devin Kelly
South Alabama SR C Drew Cofield

Lots of veteran experience in this group, but not much in the way of pro talent. Mike Spano and Myles Parma bring the best combination of production and defensive value to the table, though I’m not sure that’s enough to get drafted. It should come as no huge surprise that the player with the most upside of the group happens to be the only non-senior present. Mike Strentz is a great athlete who looks the part of a quality college catching prospect, but suspect production (.167/.235/.200 in only 30 at bats last year) keeps him in “wait and see” mode. Given good health in 2013, he may make this low ranking look foolish.

1B

Louisiana-Lafayette JR 1B Chase Compton
South Alabama JR 1B Jordan Patterson
Troy SR 1B Logan Pierce
Florida Atlantic SR 1B Mark Nelson
Louisiana-Monroe rSR 1B Corben Green
South Alabama SR 1B Dustin Dalken

Chase Compton reminds me a little bit of a bigger version of Washington State rJR Adam Nelubowich: pretty swing, impressive hit tool, great approach, and debatable defensive quality at third base. Stick him at first full-time, watch him hit, and then consider taking him in the mid- to late-rounds this June. Jordan Patterson is a good looking two-way prospect who could get drafted as either a 1B (power, athleticism, glove) or LHP (low-90s FB).

2B

Middle Tennessee State SR 2B Johnny Thomas
South Alabama rSO 2B Logan Kirkland
Arkansas-Little Rock JR 2B Chris Burk
Western Kentucky JR 2B Griffith Roark
Western Kentucky rSR 2B Blake Crabtree

Johnny Thomas has intrigued me since his days at New Orleans, so I’ll vouch for him as the most interesting Sun Belt second baseman to watch this spring. Kirkland has youth, a little bit of speed, a good eye, and steady glovework on his side.

3B

Troy rJR 3B Danny Collins
Arkansas State JR 3B Zach George
Western Kentucky JR 3B Scott Wilcox
Middle Tennessee State JR 3B Hank LaRue
Arkansas State SR 3B Zach Maggio
Louisiana-Monroe SR 3B Judd Edwards

One thing I’ve noticed about the Sun Belt’s group of 2013 MLB Draft prospects it that there is no shortage of players who can flat smack the ball around (and out of) the park. The trio of 1B/3B Chase Compton, OF/3B Claude Johnson, and 3B/1B Danny Collins ranks up there with almost any other conference’s top three, so long as the conversation is about college players who can be trusted to put forth consistent quality at bats. Collins has a keen eye, above-average hit tool, and easy plus power. What hurts him is his questionable defensive future. A friend who has seen a lot of Collins actually emailed me in faux-concern, worrying about my uncharacteristically generous placement of Collins on a third base prospect list. I don’t have a strong feeling on Collins’ defense either way — on the whole I’ve heard from more who think he sticks, at least in the short-term, at third than those who don’t — so I figured I’d leave him here until he shows that a move to 1B (or, with luck, LF) is an absolute necessity.

SS

Louisiana-Lafayette JR SS Ryan Leonards
Arkansas State JR SS Dustin Jones
Troy JR SS Garrett Pitts

Not a great deal of depth in terms of middle infield 2013 MLB Draft prospects to be found in the Sun Belt. Ryan Leonards’ strong 2012 season (.352/.424/.448), good speed, steady glove, and otherwise generally favorable scouting reports make him the name to know here.

OF

Louisiana-Lafayette JR OF Dexter Kjerstad
Arkansas State JR OF Claude Johnson
South Alabama SR OF Nolan Earley
Florida International SR OF Nathan Burns
Arkansas State SR OF Logan Uxa
Arkansas-Little Rock JR OF Ben Crumpton
Louisiana-Monroe JR OF Dalton Herrington
Arkansas State SR OF Ryan Emery
Florida Atlantic JR OF Tyler Rocklein
Western Kentucky JR OF Regan Flaherty
Middle Tennessee State JR OF Jake Ellison
Middle Tennessee State JR OF Trent Miller
Florida Atlantic SR OF Nathan Pittman
Florida Atlantic SR OF Corey Keller
Arkansas State SR OF Seth McWilliams
South Alabama SR OF Nick Zaharion
Troy SR OF Chase Mathis
Florida International SR OF Tyler James Shantz
Arkansas-Little Rock SR OF David Guarno
Florida Atlantic JR OF Geoff Jimenez
Louisiana-Monroe SR OF Brandon Alexander
Middle Tennessee State JR OF Ryan Stephens

There are times when really talented players bounce around so much after high school that even the most draft obsessed among us lose track of their travels. The sudden reappearance of a long forgotten player is one of the joys of following amateur baseball. This leads us to Dexter Kjerstad, a once highly sought after high school outfielder who wound up signing on to play for Texas. been a long strange trip, but Kjerstad has finally emerged as a legitimate 2013 draft prospect. His speed, power, and athleticism are all big league quality. It’s also worth noting that he’s impressed with the bat at every stop along the way. Claude Johnson can really swing the bat; if he get scouts on board with him being a viable third base prospect, so much the better for his draft stock. Nolan Early and Nathan Burns put up oddly similar 2012 season lines (.308/.412/.464 for the former, .308/.402/.484 for the latter), but got there very differently. Early is a very well-rounded player, roughly average with every tool but lacking a standout skill. Burns has the size (6-4, 200 pounds), speed, and arm that help separate him from the prospect herd, but comes up empty with too many swings (50 K in 221 AB last year) to have anybody touting him as a future regular. I’m excited to see what Dalton Herrington, Tyler Rocklein, and Vanderbilt transfer Regan Flaherty can do with full seasons of at bats on the big stage.

Florida International JR LHP Tyler Alexander
Florida Atlantic SR RHP Mike Sylvestri
Arkansas State SR RHP John Koch
Arkansas State JR RHP Bradley Wallace
Florida International JR RHP Mike Ellis
South Alabama JR RHP Dylan Stamey
Middle Tennessee State SR RHP Daniel Palo
Louisiana-Monroe rSR RHP Cale Wine
Troy rJR LHP Shane McCain
Florida Atlantic rJR RHP Kevin Alexander
Western Kentucky JR RHP Justin Hageman
Middle Tennessee State SR LHP Jordan Cooper
Florida Atlantic rJR RHP Jeremy Strawn
Florida Atlantic rSR RHP Hugh Adams
Middle Tennessee State SR RHP Hunter Adkins
Western Kentucky rJR LHP Tanner Perkins
Middle Tennessee State JR RHP Paul Mittura
Western Kentucky JR RHP Andrew Edwards
Arkansas-Little Rock SR RHP Chance Cleveland
Florida Atlantic rSO LHP Bo Logan
Florida International SR LHP Michael Gomez
Florida International rJR RHP Albert Cardenas
Troy JR RHP Austin Sullivan
Middle Tennessee State JR LHP Zac Curtis
Western Kentucky SR RHP Taylor Haydel
Troy SR LHP Nate Hill
South Alabama SR LHP Kyle Bartsch
Louisiana-Lafayette SR LHP Chris Griffitt
Western Kentucky SR LHP Tim Bado
Troy JR RHP Tanner Hicks
Florida Atlantic SR RHP Jake Meiers
Arkansas-Little Rock rSR RHP Blake Huffman
South Alabama SR RHP Payton Gardner
South Alabama SR RHP Jarron Cito
Troy SR RHP Thomas Austin
Troy SR LHP Ryan Sorce
Florida International SR RHP John Caballero
Western Kentucky rSO RHP Tate Glasscock
Troy SR RHP Joe Hernandez
South Alabama SR RHP Anthony Izzio
Arkansas-Little Rock JR RHP Austin Pfeiffer
Louisiana-Monroe rSR RHP Andrew Richardson
Troy SR RHP Ryan Brady
Louisiana-Monroe SR RHP Shelby Aulds
Arkansas State SR RHP Daniel Wright
Louisiana-Lafayette JR RHP Matt Hicks
Western Kentucky rSO LHP Austin Clay
Middle Tennessee State SR LHP Joey McClung
Troy JR RHP Matthew Howard
Troy JR RHP Will Starling
Florida International JR RHP Mike Franco
Troy JR LHP Ben Tidwell
Middle Tennessee State SR RHP Jonathan Sisco

I can’t help but like Mike Sylvestri more than just about anybody else I’ve talked to or read seem to. The former catcher is a really good athlete with a fast arm and enough rawness to his game that you watch him and wonder what else he’s got hiding in that right arm of his. I think he’s worth a mid-round pick as a bullpen depth, if nothing else. That’s likely the ceiling for the remainder of the players mentioned on this list, the best of the bunch at the top featuring good fastballs and breaking balls (mostly sliders).

Tyler Alexander doesn’t have the track record of success that many of the pitchers below him on this list can call their own. That’s not too much of a problem when you’ve got a good 88-92 (93) fastball, above-average curve, a sinking changeup that flashes plus, and, above all else, elite athleticism that ties the whole package together. His control remains an issue to monitor, but scouts who are high on Alexander believe that a full-time commitment to pitching — he moonlights as an outfielder — will go a long way in correcting his problems.

Cale Wine is a nice mid-round pitching prospect with the chance for three average or better pitches, not a disgusting healthy new-age fermented drink. The coolest thing about Shane McCain is his intriguing upside (CB and CU look really strong to me, mid-80s fastball has room to grow), narrowly beating out the fact that his name rhymes. Tanner Perkins is a favorite of many — we’re talking best pitching prospect in the conference kind of favorite — and I can appreciate his steady stream of sinkers and changeups as much as the next guy, but he’s more middle reliever than starting pitching prospect to me. Fun college arm to watch all the same.

2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Missouri Valley Conference

4 Feb 2013 12:16 AM / Leave a comment

So it turns out that last Friday was the fourth birthday of this site. I considered doing a post to mark the anniversary, but figured the most fitting thing to do was to keep plugging along with these silly conference previews. What better way to celebrate four long years of baseball writing than with more baseball writing? The fact that the MVC features my top college prospect is present enough for me.

Here’s the key for the player lists:

Bold = locks to be drafted
Italics = definite maybes
Underlined = possible risers
Plain text = long shots

C

Missouri State SR C Luke Voit
Illinois State JR C Mike Hollenbeck
Bradley JR C Austin Jarvis
Evansville JR C Jake Mahon
Southern Illinois JR C Matt Jones

The catchers in the Missouri Valley Conference are living proof that, try as we might, you just can’t have it all. Luke Voit and Mike Hollenbeck can both mash, but defense remains a serious question mark for both men. Austin Jarvis has a cannon behind the plate and the footwork and quick release to shut down a running game, but his hit tool can best be called questionable at this point in his development. This may be dubious logic, but the only thing that separated Voit and Hollenbeck on this list in terms of classification (i.e. Voit is a definite maybe, Hollenbeck is a possible riser) is their respective years of eligibility remaining: Voit’s senior status makes him more likely to be drafted on the cheap in the here and now, Hollenbeck is more likely to be next year’s Voit.

1B

Wichita State rSR 1B Johnny Coy
Bradley JR 1B Greg Partyka
Illinois State SR 1B Kyle Stanton

Ninth-year senior (estimated) Johnny Coy is back at it again for yet another run at the draft. He’s coming off a fine junior year (.330/.404/.537 with 31 BB/51 K) that gives some hope that he’s finally turning into the player we all thought he could be. Time isn’t on his side, so he’ll need a huge senior season to get picked in a round in line with his natural talent. He’s way too aggressive for his own good and his swing remains as long as your average Oscar-nominated film, but he still has big raw power and envious athleticism wrapped in his 6-7, 225 pound frame.

2B

Wichita State JR 2B Dayne Parker
Indiana State rSR 2B Koby Kraemer
Southern Illinois SR 2B Brock Harding
Creighton SR 2B Alex Staehely

Dayne Parker and Koby Kraemer are similar prospects who both have a chance to be drafted this June. In what probably qualifies as the Weird Comp of the Day, I had a scout friend tell me that Parker reminded him of Placido Polanco, mostly as a hitter. Polanco would represent Parker’s absolute perfect utopian ideal world upside, of course; more likely, he’s an org guy who will spend his career fighting for a chance to make it to AAA where he’ll be one injury away from a shot with the big club. Kraemer’s tools are a little louder than Parker’s, especially his pop, speed, and current ability with the glove. He has a tendency to get in his own way at times and might be a little too headstrong for pro ball, so, despite the slight edge in tools, I can’t put him above the safer Parker.

3B

Southern Illinois JR 3B Donny Duschinsky
Illinois State SR 3B Zac Johnson

Donny Duschinsky may have the name of a fictional character, but I assure he’s quite real. In fact, not only is he a real life living breathing human being, but he’s also a pretty darn good ballplayer. Duschinsky runs well, throws well, plays a mean third base, and has some decent pop. In a great year for college third basemen, Duschinsky should be a nifty mid-round value pick.

SS

Southern Illinois JR SS Jake Welch
Missouri State rSR SS Travis McComack
Illinois State rSO SS Brock Stewart
Indiana State JR SS Tyler Wampler
Wichita State rJR SS Erik Harbutz
Illinois State SR SS Brett Kay

A friend who knows the MVC inside and out told me I was nuts to have Tyler Wampler this low. He also said that he thinks Wampler has the talent to be conference player of the year before his college career is over. To be fair, he made the latter comment last year at this time, a few months before Wampler hit an uninspiring .250/.333/.303 in 208 2012 at bats. I should probably check back in with him to see if he’s changed his tune at all. Travis McComack is back, healthy, and hoping to build on a solid 2011 season (.298/.386/.346 with 26 BB/23 K). I like his glove and arm enough that I think he sticks at shortstop defensively no problem, though I’m far from convinced he’ll hit enough to make it worthwhile. Brett Kay is in the same boat.

Wichita State rJR OF Micah Green
Bradley SR OF Mike Tauchman
Wichita State rJR OF Garrett Bayliff
Evansville rSO OF Kevin Kaczmarski
Indiana State SR OF Rob Ort
Creighton JR OF Mike Gerber
Indiana State JR OF Mike Fitzgerald
Missouri State JR OF Trey Massenberg
Evansville SR OF Jason Hockenmeyer
Missouri State SR OF Keenen Maddox
Illinois State rSR OF Eric Aguilera
Southern Illinois SR OF Rennie Troggio
Illinois State SR OF Chad Hinshaw
Creighton JR OF Brad McKewon
Southern Illinois SO OF Tanner Renner

The pair of Wichita State fourth-year juniors are both largely projection picks at this point. Micah Green’s upside (athleticism, speed, raw power, body) is easy to spot after watching him just a few times. What keeps him from being an even better prospect is his lack of production at the college level, due mostly to him still being a raw, unfinished product. Garrett Bayliff doesn’t have quite the same tools package, but an argument can be made that he’s the better ballplayer. Rob Ort has long been a favorite, both because of well-rounded skill set and because of the dearth of quality pro players who go by Rob. In my admittedly quick search on the topic, I only found six Major League players who went by the first name Rob, including current Marlins catcher (and old draft favorite) Rob Brantly. I question the validity of that number, however, as my all-time favorite big league Rob (Ducey, of course) wasn’t included on the list.

The scouting reports on Mike Tauchman’s defensive progression over the years are fascinating to me. My guy who has seen him a good bit over the years started off telling me he was likely a 1B only in the pros, then upgraded him to LF/1B, and now believes he might actually be able to play the occasional CF at the next level. That’s definitely a credit to the hard work that Tauchman has put in to improve his foot speed and athleticism, and a testament to his well above-average baseball instincts. It’s also a really good thing for his prospect stock: as a 1B only, his lack of power would have torpedoed any chance of getting drafted. As a player with a little bit of positional versatility, his hit tool, plate discipline, and above-average speed give him a chance. Whether or not he makes it in the pros is obviously yet to be determined — I should just type that phrase for every player and be done with this whole site! — but his attitude toward always looking to improve his game makes him one of college ball’s underrated gems.

SP

Indiana State JR LHP Sean Manaea
Wichita State JR RHP Cale Elam
Missouri State rJR RHP Nick Petree
Missouri State SR RHP Grant Gordon
Wichita State rSO LHP Kris Gardner
Wichita State JR LHP Albert Minnis
Missouri State SR RHP Clay Murphy
Wichita State rJR RHP Tobin Mateychick
Illinois State SR RHP Brad Sorkin
Wichita State SR RHP TJ McGreevy
Illinois State rSR RHP Otto Roberts
Bradley rSO RHP Steve Adkins
Bradley rJR RHP John Nasshan
Evansville rJR RHP Sam Johns
Illinois State SR RHP Chris Razo
Indiana State JR LHP Jeff Degano
Indiana State JR RHP Daniel Peterson
Illinois State rSO LHP Joe Claver
Southern Illinois JR RHP Todd Eaton
Wichita State JR RHP Foster Vielock
Illinois State rSO RHP Dan Savas
Missouri State SR RHP Cody Schumacher
Missouri State rJR RHP Jake Powers
Bradley SR RHP Rob Kennedy
Indiana State SR RHP Devin Moore
Southern Illinois SR LHP Cody Forsythe
Evansville SR RHP Jake Naumann
Bradley rSR RHP Patrick Flanagan
Evansville JR LHP Cole Isom
Evansville SR RHP Kyle Lloyd
Evansville JR RHP Ryan Billo
Wichita State JR RHP Brandon Peterson
Southern Illinois rJR RHP Aaron Snyder
Wichita State rSO RHP Zach Beringer
Southern Illinois rJR LHP Brad Drust
Southern Illinois JR LHP Tyler Dray
Evansville SR LHP Josh Biggs
Illinois State rJR RHP JD Learnard
Southern Illinois JR RHP Matt Murphy

With apologies to fans of Mark Appel and Ryne Stanek, it is Sean Manaea who has the best shot of any college player to go first overall to the Houston Astros. I want to be bolder and proclaim him the early favorite over the entire field, but I can’t help but think Houston’s upper-management, and I say this with a great deal of admiration, will be tempted once again by whatever high school bat shows the most long-term upside this spring. Manaea’s bread and butter is his fastball, a pitch that does everything you’d want a fastball to do and more. I went through my personal fastball checklist (velocity, movement, command) when talking about Kyle Finnegan a while back, but Manaea is probably the better example of the ideal fastball in the eyes of talent evaluators. His velocity (very consistent 90-94, 96 peak as starter and 98 in short stints) is up there with the best you’ll find from a lefthanded starting pitcher. His ball moves so much that unfamiliar catchers have a tough time with him at first. His command has gone from a question mark to arguably his greatest strength. Finally, and I missed this during my first mention of the fastball checklist, his funky delivery helps allow him to hide the ball longer than most, giving his fastball the appearance of a few ticks hotter on the gun than it clocks in at in reality. So Manaea’s fastball grades out as plus or better across the board: velocity, movement, command, and deception. It’s an elite pitch. Add in his newish mid-80s split-change that has turned into a weapon and his low-80s slider that flashes plus more often than not, and you’ve got yourself a big time pitching prospect. I’ve said it before (I think) and I’ll say it again: Manaea’s development from out of shape, underwhelming high school project to legitimate future big league star reminds me of Stephen Strasburg’s road to Washington. Last two points on Manaea that I’m too lazy to properly put into coherent sentences so I’ll just list them: 1) Manaea has an outstanding pickoff move, something that doesn’t get talked a lot around the internet but I guarantee scouts who see Manaea regularly mention to their bosses, and 2) the only tiny concern about Manaea going forward is his control, especially as it relates to his sometimes inconsistent release point and footwork on the mound. This is an area he has improved in a great deal in his two years at Indiana State, but it seems worth mentioning, if only to maintain my reputation (ha) as fair and balanced.

Nick Petree is the next most famous name on the list thanks to his outstanding 2012 season that drew well deserved acclaim from many of the national college baseball publications. Petree gets the job done without the benefit of a big-time fastball. On a good day he’ll hit 90 MPH, but he’s most often in the mid-80s. What makes Petree so good is his command, control, offspeed repertoire (sinkers, sliders, changeups, cutters, curves…basically whatever works), and, yes, that always difficult to define intangible we all know as pitchability. I don’t know what Petree’s eventual pro role will be — as much as I love him, it’s hard to see him as a big league starting pitcher — but he’s the kind of guy I’d like to have in my organization, soaking up innings and biding his time in the hopes he’ll one day get some innings coming out of the bullpen.

I like Cale Elam a lot more than most: 88-92 FB with great movement, SL with plus upside, raw but interesting changeup, above-average athleticism, and coming off a strong 2012 season (9.20 K/9 | 2.86 BB/9 | 3.66 FIP | 44 IP). What’s not to like? Other things I like: Albert Minnis’ fastball sink and deceptive delivery, Clay Murphy’s pedestrian fastball but deep set of usable pitches and consistent strong results, Tobin Mateychick’s projection and name, Steve Adkins’ frame and breaking ball, and John Nasshan’s girth and slow/steady improvement.