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2010 MLB Draft: Top 30 College Catching Prospects (8-5)
[Again, my apologies for continuing to stretch this out as long as I have. The real life job that pays me real life dollar bills is crazy right now, but things should slow down at the “office” by Wednesday night. If it helps any, 2010 MLB Mock Draft 2.0 is almost ready to see the light of day. In the meantime, hey, how about that Villanova guy ranked fifth?]
8. Texas JR C Cameron Rupp
Now we’re finally getting to some college catching prospects with legit plus tools. In Rupp’s case, it’s plus raw power and a plus throwing arm. The raw power is hard to argue with, though there is some concern it’s more of a pure physical strength power rather than quick wrists and a classic swing kind of power. Rupp’s arm strength has been called above-average in some places, but, for me, his arm becomes a plus tool when you combine that above-average throwing power with his incredibly precise throwing accuracy. Arm and power, check. As for the other three tools, well, that’s more of a mixed bag. His running speed is well below-average and his long swing has enough holes against breaking pitches to keep him from ever having anything more than a league average bat. His defense, however, gives him a third above-average tool, especially his surprisingly nimble lateral movement behind the plate.
7. UNC Wilmington JR C Cody Stanley
Stanley gets the edge over Rupp due to better athleticism, but, really, the two are similar prospects in many respects. Both have plus power potential, both have plus throwing arms (Stanley’s isn’t as strong, but better footwork and a quicker release helps narrow the gap), and both profile as solid big league defenders behind the plate. Pretty similar, right? So what exactly gives Stanley the advantage as a prospect? Well, we’ve already covered Stanley’s superior athleticism, but the UNC Wilmington catcher also bests his Texas counterpart in baserunning (Stanley has great instincts and is an average runner for a catcher) and track record with a wood bat (Stanley killed it on the Cape this past summer). Stanley over Rupp by a hair; the proof is in the parentheses.
6. UC Riverside SO C Rob Brantly
Originally my favorite four-year college in the 2010 class, Brantly’s sophomore season hasn’t really done too much to hurt his stock, but has nonetheless seen his spot in the rankings slip as other college guys have simply done more. The one and only time (maye) I’ll lift something directly from the always wonderful Baseball America comes now:
[Redacted] has a strong, compact swing and the ability to make consistent, hard contact to all fields. He has a mature, patient offensive approach, excellent pitch recognition and advanced strike-zone awareness. He has above-average power to the pull side and also good power the other way.
That could very easily be written about Rob Brantly, but it was actually the most recent scouting report on Washington’s Derek Norris. The comparison isn’t perfect, but I think it works as a general outline – big bat, professional strike-zone awareness, solid defensive tools, but not yet a reliable backstop. Norris was a fourth round steal out of high school in 2007; Brantly could be the college equivalent, in round and value, here in 2010.
5. Villanova SO C Matt Szczur
- Bias #1: Players with plus makeup that really, really, really back it up
- Bias #2: Players with the plus athleticism needed to excel at a high level in another sport
- Bias #3: Players with an idea of the strike zone
- Bias #4: Players I’ve seen play in person a disproportionate number of times
- Bias #5: Local players
I can’t really defend the last two biases on the list, but the first three are things that I know I’m not alone in looking out for. Szczur’s scouting credentials include the following: really impressive hit tool, good speed (not just good for a catcher, either), plus arm, plus athleticism, rapidly emerging power, championship pedigree, worthwhile positional versatility (3B and corner OF collegiate experience, above-average at all three spots), and, as a long-time two-sport star conditioned to split his training two ways since junior high, vast untapped potential on the diamond. I won’t profess to know Szczur’s ultimate upside as a ballplayer, but I have a hard time watching him play and seeing anything but a young man on the cusp of a long big league career. These rankings have been more or less surprise free to this point, but Szczur’s high placement is something I’m willing to roll the dice on.
2010 MLB Draft: Top 30 College Catching Prospects (15-9)
(Sorry to keep stretching out the Top 30 College Catching Prospects bit, but I spent far too much time working on site maintenance — re-tagged and recategorized every post ever — and long-range draft projects that should hopefully pay off big in the coming weeks. Stay tuned…)
15. North Carolina State JR C Chris Schaeffer
Good defensively? Check. Above-average power production? Check. Mature approach at the plate? Check. There really aren’t a lot of obvious chinks in Schaeffer’s prospect armor, especially when stacked up against his draft-eligible college catching competition. Biggest knock on Schaeffer that I’ve heard revolves around his swing. His experience with wood in the past hasn’t inspired a great deal of confidence that his power is more than an aluminum bat mirage. Even if we adjust for a loss of power, Schaeffer’s other aforementioned skills make him an attractive mid-round candidate as a developmental backup catcher type.
14. North Carolina JR C Jesse Wierzbicki
Wierzbicki’s tools grade out as solid across the board, especially if you’re like me and willing to grade a catcher’s running speed on a curve. I tend to think of backup catchers falling into one of three general archetypes. The first group of backups are the sluggers (big raw power, capable of popping an extra base hit or two in that one start a week), the second are the defensive aces (nothing mesmerizes big league coaching staffs more than a catching with a plus arm), and the third are the players that do everything pretty well, but nothing great. Wierzbicki falls squarely in with that last category of player. He’s known for having power to the gaps, a consistent line drive generating swing, and a solid arm. He’s also a tireless worker who knows his own athletic limitations, two of those tricky intangible qualities that either mean a lot to a team or nothing at all.
13. Santa Clara SR C Tommy Medica
Medica was profiled last year:
Tommy Medica brings tons of experience with 92 starts behind plate in his first two years at Santa Clara. He offers up good size (6-1 215), gap power, a very fine throwing arm, above-average athleticism (he’s played a decent LF in the past), and a classic sounding baseball player name, but he hasn’t seen live action since leaving a game with what has been since diagnosed as a separated shoulder on March 7th. That makes Medica a unique prospect to evaluate – what do we make of a solid mid-round catcher considered by many to have untapped potential with the bat (good!) who is on the mend rehabbing a pretty serious injury (bad!)?
He doesn’t necessarily have a standout tool (though his arm is darn good), but he also doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses. I think I remember coming to the conclusion that catchers who are billed as solid players unspectacular in any one area tend to disappoint, yet I still can’t help but like Medica’s game. I need to fight that like and go with what my hastily thrown together research told me – Medica fits the profile of a player who faces a long climb towards attaining the ultimate goal of making himself a useful big leaguer.
He’s healthy this year and producing at about the level expected of his tools. The outfield experiment hasn’t gone quite as well as it has in the past, but the positional versatility still helps his stock. Teams that were in on him last year before the injury should probably be after him in the mid-rounds once again in 2010.
12. TCU SR C Bryan Holaday
Off the charts leadership, plus raw strength, excellent gap power, elite defender, and a plus arm. That description immediately makes me think of the guy ranked number four on this list. Quick conclusion: Bryan Holaday is about 90% of the player Micah Gibbs is with only about 9% of the hype. Of course, their respective placement on the list makes me guilty of overlooking Holaday as well. He’s a relatively safe investment in the mid-rounds for a team in need of a high floor backup with the upside of a solid second division starting player.
11. Coastal Carolina SR C Jose Iglesias
Iglesias started 2009 with as much helium as any college catcher in the country. I remembered talking to a scout really early in the season about Iglesias. He told me that from a body/tools/projection standpoint, Iglesias was as good a bet as any college catcher in the country, Tony Sanchez included. His junior season (.306/.381/.570) was a letdown for many, but only because of the tremendous expectations placed on his head during the winter. His numbers in 2010 are better across the board, and his skills, especially his batting eye and power potential, remain strong. As much as any catcher on the list so far, Iglesias has what it takes to be a big league starter behind the plate.
10. Tennessee JR C Blake Forsythe
As one of my favorite players in the country heading in the year, Forsythe, no doubt already feeling the heat as a key bat on a top SEC school expected to compete in 2010, had the added pressure of keeping this faceless internet stranger happy with a big season at and behind the plate. He’s responded with a season reminiscent of Jose Iglesias’s 2009 – good, but certainly not top five round worthy like many had hoped. Like Iglesias, it may be in his best interest to return for a senior season to rehabilitate his slipping draft stock. As it stands, his stock isn’t completely down the tubes; legit power potential and super plate discipline will get a guy chances, down year or not. I also think he’s a better athlete and runner than he often gets credit for, but those skills aren’t going to be what gets him paid. If he hits like expected, he’s a big leaguer.
9. Vanderbilt JR C Curt Casali
Casali has an almost perfect big league body, incredible athleticism for a catcher, and great physical strength. That’s all well and good (and I don’t say that derisively, it really is both well and good), but can he play baseball? Well, he’s an above-average defender who has caught a wide array of pitchers while at Vanderbilt, and his throwing arm has made a slow, but steady recovery from Tommy John surgery. His bat has some serious juice (near-plus power may be the tool that comes most naturally to him) and his patient approach makes him a legit candidate to play every day professionally.
2010 MLB Draft: Top 30 College Catching Prospects (30-16)
30. Pittsburgh JR C Kevan Smith
The former Panthers quarterback is a plus athlete with a strong arm who is still understandably raw in some phases of the game. He was a highly regarded prospect coming out of high school who was at one point seen as a potential top five round pick, but was downgraded because of his strong commitment to the gridiron. There’s already some speculation that he’ll stick around for his senior year to further showcase his skills.
29. Louisville SR C Jeff Arnold
Arnold is good enough defensively to stick behind the plate, but his above-average speed could tempt a pro team into moving him off the position into a super-sub role. He’s always had a keen batting eye and a solid hit tool, but the lack of power should limit him to backup work going forward.
28. New Mexico JR C Rafael Neda
Neda’s strong statistical profile syncs up well with the increasingly positive scouting reports thrown his way this spring. He came into the year with a solid defensive reputation and above-average power to the gaps, but now has some scouts thinking he could grow into a decent regular with double digit homerun totals.
27. Texas Tech JR C Jeremy Mayo
Reminds me a lot of Jeff Arnold in that both players are above-average runners with solid gloves, but Mayo’s edge in power makes him the better prospect.
26. Ohio State JR C Dan Burkhart
Despite being a legitimate pro prospect in his own right, his biggest claim to fame may be convincing best friend and potential first rounder Alex Wimmers to join him for three years in Columbus. Burkhart is yet another good defensive catcher with a good batting eye and a questionable power ceiling. His scouting reports and his numbers come very close to Kevan Smith’s, but Burkhart’s higher probability of contributing gives him the edge over Smith’s higher upside. Burkhart also receives high marks for being one of the few catchers in the college game trusted to call his own pitches.
25. Rice SR C Diego Seastrunk
I haven’t seen or heard this comp elsewhere, so take it for what it’s worth (not much), but Seastrunk’s scouting profile and video remind me of a lesser version of Ryan Doumit. That’s high praise. Seastrunk is the kind of player who’s overall package exceeds the sum of his parts. Of course, it’s not exactly like his parts are all that shabby. I love, love, love the way Seastrunk has transitioned to the role of full-time catcher this spring. Seastrunk’s combination of an above-average arm, gap power, and plus makeup (he’s a tireless worker and a great team player) has me believing his tools will play as a professional. He isn’t a natural behind the plate, but the instincts I’ve seen from him in going down to get balls in the dirt lead me to believe he’ll be an above-average defender before long. I eventually can see Seastrunk filling a supersub role (not unlike Doumit before he broke out).
The majority of catchers at this point in the ranking fall into one of three categories: 1) high ceiling, low floor (could be a starting catcher with all the right breaks, but doesn’t have the customary skill set big league clubs like in backup catchers), 2) low ceiling, high floor(ready-made big league backup skill set, especially defensively, but without the offensive upside to start) , 3) supersub upside (capable of contributing at first, third, and/or the outfield corners). Seastrunk has a throwing arm that flashes plus (great raw strength, improving pop times), gap power (notice this commonality among the back half of the top 30?), and good patience at the plate. He also has experience at all of the supersub positions listed above. He may never be a big league starting catcher, nor may he be a primary backup, but his versatility should be a boon for whatever pro team takes the chance on him.
24. Oklahoma State JR C Kevin David
On paper, David is a top ten college catching prospect, but his results through three years at Oklahoma State have been more good than great. There’s not much to quibble with when it comes to his excellent athleticism, strong throwing arm, and above-average glove, but all of that untapped potential needs to turn into production before long. His relatively low placement on the list — it’s possible he goes somewhere between round 5-10 — is more about the players ahead of him than anything else; if that’s a cop-out, so be it.
23. Embry-Riddle SR C Austin Goolsby
Besides having a fun name to say, Austin Goolsby is an intriguing NAIA catching prospect with elite defensive potential, good pro size, and power to the gaps. His skills as an economist, however, are at this point unknown.
22. Southern Illinois SR C Tyler Bullock
Bullock possesses the best present power of any player in the bottom half of the top thirty, no real shock when you consider his classic big bopper (6-4, 275) build. He’s a lesser version of one of my 2009 favorites, Purdue’s Dan Black, another large man with prodigious power potential. Like Black, Bullock’s defense is passable and his arm strength is above-average. Like Black, Bullock’s professional future is that of a versatile backup catcher capable of filling in at first base (Bullock and Black) and/or third base (Black only).
21. Western Kentucky JR C Matt Rice
Average hit tool, slightly above-average power, solid defender = mid-round pick with big league backup upside.
20. Georgia Tech JR C Cole Leonida
As one of the spring’s fastest rising prospects, Cole Leonida does a lot of little things very well. His defense around the plate is a strength, and his power potential is second only to Tyler Bullock’s here on the latter half of the top thirty. Leonida’s impressive throwing arm, while at least big league average in strength and above-average in accuracy, could really stand to benefit from some mechanical adjustments to help with his release point. With good coaching that big league average arm could easily become consistently above-average. As a hitter he’ll probably never hit at or near .300 professionally, but his raw power could translate into double digit homeruns if given enough playing time.
19. Virginia JR C Kenny Swab
Here’s what was said here about Mr. Swab back before the season started:
He’s got a live bat with above-average power potential, but it’ll take some serious lineup juggling from Brian O’Connor to get him the at bats he’ll need to boost his draft stock. As is, Swab is a potential 10-20th round player based on upside alone.
Not a bad preseason prediction on a fairly unheralded junior college transfer, right? In the at bats Swab’s earned this year, he’s impressed. Good power, good patience, good defender, good arm, and good positional versatility. He’s not a star by any means, but he’s a good player. That sounds pretty good to me.
18. Missouri JR C Brett Nicholas
Similar to Swab in that both are junior college transfers with solid hit tools capable of playing a variety of positions, but Nicholas’ greater power potential and more intriguing secondary position (Nicholas is at least passable on the hot corner) gives him the advantage.
17. Arizona State JR C Xorge Carrillo
Carrillo’s placement this high is largely speculative, but, hey, isn’t that really what a list like this is all about? Carrillo has missed almost all of the season with a bum forearm, but when healthy showed off impressive power to all fields and much improved athleticism behind the plate. That last reason is why I’m comfortable keeping the twice drafted Carrillo this high on the list despite the injury. The improvements in his body and subsequent uptick in footwork behind the plate indicate a dedication to getting better that makes me think his injury is just a minor blip on his path towards getting drafted a third time.
16. Lewis-Clark State JR C Kawika Emsley-Pai
Emsley-Pai’s injury history, most notably a stress fracture of his L5 veterbra that occurred in high school, could keep some teams away, but as a switch-hitter with patience and really good defensive tools he should get plenty of looks this June. Recent back tightness is a bit of a red flag, but, again, if his medicals check out then the former Longhorn will finally get his chance in pro ball.
Quick Comparison – 2010 College Catchers vs 2009 College Catchers
Given the choice of a random sampling of college catching prospects from 2010 and 2009, what side of the ’10 vs ’09 debate will you fall on? It’s been said that 2010 is the better year for college catching, a sentiment I agree with for what it’s worth, but why not actually put conventional wisdom to the death with a head-to-head comparison? Originally I had planned to pick players 1-5-10-15-20-25 from each draft class (2010 based on my rankings, 2009 based on draft order) and compare, but the presence of Bryce Harper would make the entire exercise even more pointless than it probably already is. Instead, we’ll compare 2-7-12-17-22-27. Also, I may have miscounted with the 2009 draft class, but, really, the comparison is unscientific enough already, what’s the harm in mixing things up even further?
Full 2010 college catcher rankings tomorrow. Maybe an Alternate Reality Mock Draft, too. Real Mock Draft is almost done, should be ready to be published early next week. Additionally, comments and emails will be answered in the next 48 hours. Please, do try to contain your excitement. As for our college catching comparison, here’s the quick breakdown:
2010
Yasmani Grandal
Cody Stanley
Tommy Medica
Xorge Carrillo
Tyler Bullock
Jeremy Mayo
OR
2009
Josh Phegley
Tobias Streich
Carlos Ramirez
Tyson Van Winkle
Michael Thomas
Jeremy Gillan
Personally, I like Grandal better than Phegley, Stanley over Streich, and Ramirez more than Medica. 2 wins for 2010, 1 win for 2009. After that, things get pretty close to even with each matchup. Xorge Carrillo gets the edge over Van Winkle in the battle of hilariously named prospects, Bullock (offense!) wins by the slightest of margins over Thomas (defense!), and Mayo/Gillan is a true pick-em. 4 wins for 2010, 1 win for 2009, 1 too close to call. Admittedly not the most scientific way to determine a particular year’s draft strength, but it’s at least one more tiny data point for the pro-2010 crowd.
2010 MLB Draft Top 30 College Catching Prospects – Honorable Mentions
It was a lot more difficult paring down the list of top 2010 MLB draft-eligible players down to 30 than it was at either 1B or 2B, so I figured I’d devote a little bit of electronic ink to the players that didn’t quite make the cut. First, the top five college catching prospects that were squeezed out of a surprisingly deep class of 30, in no particular order unless otherwise noted…
Auburn SR C Ryan Jenkins
Jenkins is the best prospect that didn’t make the cut. He’s a ready-made big league catcher defensively with a fantastic arm and a really nice, level swing. The mid-round college catching depth this year is really the only thing keeping him out of the top thirty.
Mississippi JR C Miles Hamblin
Big things were expected out of the junior college transfer Hamblin this season, but his debut year at Ole Miss has been a gigantic disappointment. I liked him enough last year to claim he was a superior prospect to Trevor Coleman of Missouri, a player at one time regarded as an easy top three round pick. Here’s what was said then:
Hamblin has above-average power potential and a live bat, plus he has the added advantage of being close to a sure bet of sticking behind the plate as a professional. His outstanding performance this season for a dominant junior college team has scouts buzzing. Lefty power, a great catcher’s frame, strong throwing arm (mid-80s fastball in high school), and a mature approach at the plate…don’t let the lack of pedigree bother you, Hamblin is a good prospect; so good a prospect, in fact, that I’d take him over Coleman, thank you very much.
His park and schedule adjusted season numbers as of early May: .221/.345/.375; 22 BB/33 K; 11 extra base hits. Gigantically disappointing. Hamblin’s solid all-around tools are all still present, so it’s hard to write him off as a prospect completely, but it’s harder still justifying a placement over a slew of more qualified catching candidates on the list.
Mississippi State JR C Wes Thigpen
Must be something in the water down in Mississippi. First it’s Hamblin disappointing, now it’s Thigpen. Way more power was expected out of the Bulldogs primary catcher in 2010, but his park and schedule adjusted line looks a lot like Hamblin’s: .232/.360/.354; 15 BB/26 K; 4 extra base hits. Ouch. Thigpen, a really good athlete and an even better defender, had me believing that this was the year he’d finally put some of his impressive raw power to use. Like talented but disappointing junior year players such as Jose Iglesias, Tommy Medica, and Diego Seastrunk last year, returning for a senior season may be the best/only course of action for Hamblin and Thigpen.
Rutgers SR C Jayson Hernandez
Another player I’ve written about before that also happened to just miss the list is Rutgers senior Jayson Hernandez. Here’s what was said about his laser rocket arm a few months back:
The guy may have little to no power to speak of, and he may be considered one of the weaker hitters currently playing major college ball, but, man oh man, can this guy throw. If he can wake up the bat even a teeny, tiny bit, he could find himself drafted with the chance of someday being a shutdown all-defense big league backup.
The ridiculous arm strength remains, but now Hernandez can lay claim to a spot on the 2010 list of most-improved college hitters. His power is still almost non-existent, but newfound patience at the plate has enabled him to work deeper counts. Deeper counts have meant more walks, obviously, but it’s also helped to set him up in more and more advantageous hitter’s counts. It would be nice if he could drive the ball with some authority in said hitter’s counts, but his increase in singles might be enough to elevate his stock from “hopeful some team will invite him for a tryout somewhere along the way” to “believing that he’ll see his name online as a late round flier on draft day.” Progress.
Minnesota SR C Kyle Knudson
The other Minnesota catcher with a chance to be drafted (more on his teammate much, much, much higher up the list) and yet another player that has already received some much coveted Baseball Draft Report screen time. Pre-season assessment of Knudson right here:
[Knudson] is a good athlete with a strong arm. He also has some pop and a big league ready frame, but the total tools package still comes up short. He’s not a real prospect at this point, but could get himself a professional job filling out a rookie ball roster if a team is in need of a reliable backstop. Catchers are always in demand, you know.
I do know! Catchers are always in demand, especially those coming off of solid senior seasons. Knudson is another player that took a step forward with the bat in 2010. He should probably consider himself in about the same “please, somebody take a late round flier on me” spot that Hernandez is now in. Again, that’s progress.
Other players of note who didn’t make the cut include, but are not limited to the following:
Houston SR C Chris Wallace
Cal State Fullerton SR C Billy Marcoe
Vanderbilt SR C Andrew Giobbi
Southern Mississippi SR C Travis Graves
South Carolina SR C Kyle Enders
Bryant SR C Jeff Vigurs
San Diego SR C Nick McCoy
Wallace is the best of the rest, a more than capable defender with enough power to keep pitchers honest and impressive 2010 season numbers. The remaining senior sign candidates all offer up varying degrees of above-average defense; in fact, my notes range from “solid” (McCoy) to “good” (Vigurs) to “near-plus” (Graves). Giobbi, one of the defenders noted as “good” in my notes, has the most offensive upside of the group. Any one player here could get drafted in the later stages of the draft. Any one player here could wind up as a big league backup backstop someday. The odds are obviously stacked against them, but part of the fun of the whole draft process is you just never know.
Two names that didn’t hit enough to warrant consideration, but are worth mentioning for their one plus tool alone:
South Florida JR C Eric Sim
Nebraska JR C Patric Tolentino
Two of the very best arms in all of college baseball attached to two of arguably the very worst everyday hitters. Sim’s arm is so good that his best hope at a pro career will probably come after first receiving some time on the mound his senior season. Tolentino’s arm and big league frame are both strengths, but, unfortunately, that’s about the limit of his redeeming on-field qualities.
Not enough offense, not enough defense:
College of Southern Nevada SO C Ryan Scott
Texas A&M JR C Kevin Gonzalez
UC Irvine SR C Francis Larson
In the same way Knudson is the other Minnesota catcher, Scott is the other CSN catcher. His defense is stellar, far better than teammate Bryce Harper’s at this stage, but his poor contact rate and minimal power keep him far away from the top thirty. Gonzalez will probably stick around College Station another year after he goes undrafted; he’ll no doubt look to improve upon his 2010 statistics, numbers that are eerily close to Larson’s. Gonzalez in 2010: .302/.326/.434. Larson in 2010: .291/.338/.426. Not enough power or patience for either player to get by without being tremendous on defense.
And finally rounding out the top 50…
Florida Southern JR C Zach Maggard
Virginia SR C Franco Valdes
Duke SR C Ryan McCurdy
Liberty JR C Jerry Neufang
Maggard, Valdes, McCurdy, and Neufang all had at least an outside shot of cracking the back end of the top thirty coming into the season, but all fell well short of expectations in 2010. Maggard has the most pop, but has no idea of the strike zone; he stands and swings like a professional (scouts have given him positive reviews most of the spring), but any pitcher with a clue can make quick work of him. Valdes, McCurdy, and Neufang don’t have a single above-average tool to share, unless you count McCurdy’s uncanny ability to get plunked by the opposition.
Injured List
Fresno Pacific SR C Wes Dorrell had a chance to backdoor his way onto the top 30 with a healthy, productive spring. Unfortunately, a torn labrum prevented any of that from happening. Hard to even project a player who probably didn’t have the chops for catching everyday to rebound from such serious shoulder surgery, but Dorrell’s bat could get him a look in 2011 as a potential four-corners utility guy that can also suit up behind the dish in a pinch.
Mystery Draft 2010 – Undersized Prep Outfielders
No names, no hype, no actual right or wrong answer. Which prospect of the two undersized high school outfielders would you rather see your favorite team draft this June?
Player A
Plus (60) speed, but more quick (great acceleration) than a classic burner; average at best arm (currently about a 45), but projects as a little better than average (probably a 55, give or take); far more power, both present and projected, than his frame (5-9, 160) suggests; profiles as above-average defensively in center or plus in a corner, most likely right; above-average hit tool; aforementioned diminutive frame and a slow start this spring kept his prospect stock down, but upside as a quality big league regular can be reached if he adds strength; also has legitimate potential on mound with plus control of a fastball between 88-91, mid-70s changeup, and above-average soft curveball…
Player B
Above-average runner who is also a plus-plus athlete; present average arm that some see as having plus raw potential, but only after some serious coaching up; easy plus raw power, but has had better luck showing it in batting practice than in-game; contact rates remain low enough that it is difficult to project him as having an average hit tool because of a preponderance of swings and misses, but with more reps (again, he’s extremely raw) anything is possible; when he doesn’t swing and miss, however, the ball goes a very, very long way; despite some concern that he is already maxed out physically at 5-10, 205, prospect offers up some of the highest upside in the 2010 draft class, especially in the power department…
GO/AO Data Update (through May 2)
First, a special thank you to everybody who reads the gibberish I churn out on a semi-daily basis around here. April was the best month from a traffic standpoint in the history of the site, besting the previous high watermark set last June. We’re up over 200,000 visitors and climbing. Thank you.
Second, another thank you for anybody who has commented or emailed over the past few weeks. I’ve read everything readers have sent in and learned a whole lot in the process. No one man can cover the draft by himself, so the help I receive in the comments or via email goes a long way in getting the best quality draft coverage out in the open. Thank you. Responses will finally be coming this week, so be on the look out for that.
Third, here’s a quick idea of what I’ve got on the agenda for the next week or so, in no particular order:
- Mystery Draft – High School Outfielders
- College Position Ranking – Shortstops and/or Catchers
- Alternate Reality Mock Draft – All Players Must Go to College (all members of 2007 prep class draft-eligible)
- 2010 MLB Mock Draft! Finally!
Anything else? I’m always open for suggestions.
Fourth, data! Top dozen groundballers in my admittedly not 100% comprehensive database:
- Vanderbilt SO RHP Sonny Gray: 2.73 GO/AO
- Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis: 2.33 GO/AO
- Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn: 2.33 GO/AO
- South Carolina JR RHP Sam Dyson: 2.13 GO/AO
- California SO RHP Dixon Anderson: 2.13 GO/AO
- Florida State JR LHP John Gast: 2.11 GO/AO
- Stanford SO LHP Brett Mooneyham: 2.09 GO/AO
- Texas SO Taylor Jungmann: 2.00 GO/AO
- North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey: 1.89 GO/AO
- Miami JR LHP Chris Hernandez: 1.86 GO/AO
- Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale: 1.69 GO/AO
- Notre Dame JR RHP Brian Dupra: 1.67 GO/AO
Now for the top half dozen…airballers?…in the same database:
- San Diego SR RHP AJ Griffin: 0.44 GO/AO
- LSU JR RHP Anthony Ranaudo: 0.57 GO/AO
- LSU JR Austin Ross: 0.60 GO/AO
- Cal State Fullerton SO RHP Tyler Pill: 0.62 GO/AO
- UCLA SO RHP Trevor Bauer: 0.73 GO/AO
- Georgia JR RHP Justin Grimm: 0.84 GO/AO
Update: 2010 MLB Draft Top 30 College Second Base Prospects
Click to see the completed top 30 all in one spot right here! Or scroll down one post. Or forget those fools ranked 30-6 and just focus on the top five, republished below…
5. Louisville SR 2B Adam Duvall – I’m as big a Louisville fan (prospect-wise) you’ll find outside of Kentucky, so take the Duvall ranking with a grain of salt. His speed and defense aren’t elite, but he’s strong enough in both areas. It’ll be his bat that gets him his shot as he rises to minor league prominence. Duvall reminds me a lot of great deal of 2009 fourth round pick Derek McCallum. Both players have really nice swings who should each hit for good averages with enough extra-base hits to keep pitchers honest.
4. Stanford JR 2B Colin Walsh – I wrote before the season that Walsh had a really pretty swing that caused scouts to project more power in his future. The future is now. Walsh’s excellent results on the field have finally caught up to his positive scouting reports. He also has an outstanding glove at second that may actually be good enough to work at shortstop, giving hope that he can be a utility infielder in the mold of Marco Scutaro someday. His offensive progression with Stanford actually reminds me of former Cardinal Cord Phelps, but, and this bears repeating, Walsh’s glove is outstanding. Phelps was a third rounder as a hitter with slightly less college production, a bit more physical projection, and a significantly lesser glove. 2010 is a really strong draft, especially near the top, but I’d still say that comparison bodes well for Walsh come draft day.
3. Chipola JC FR 2B LeVon Washington – Thought Washington wasn’t worth a first round grade in 2009, but the Tampa front office’s seal of approval is enough to make any good draft fan reconsider. His plus speed remains a major strength, as does his strong contact skills and intriguing power potential, but his post-injury noodle arm is a concern at any defensive position, even second. Even though I’m still not personally sold on the bat playing at higher levels, there is little denying Washington’s four-tool upside.
2. West Virginia JR 2B Jedd Gyorko – I’m not a scout, so I try not to pretend to be one if at all possible, but, if you’ll indulge me just this one, I have to point out the marked difference between Gyorko’s 2010 swing and his 2009 swing. The majority of his damage last season came on guesswork when he’d get nearly all his weight shifted up on his front foot and hack away. His stride is way more efficient this year, with a vastly improved, far more balanced load and launch. Very encouraging progress. Defensively, Gyorko will never be known for his range, but his soft hands should enable him to make all the plays at balls hit at or near him. The two most prevalent (and optimistic) comps are Kevin Youkilis and Dan Uggla, but ultimately Gyorko’s power upside pales in comparison. For me, Gyorko’s upside is that of the new Ben Zobrist.
1. Ball State JR 2B Kolbrin Vitek – Modest son of a gun I am, I’d never toot my own horn about getting out ahead of a prospect’s emergence, but, seeing as I’m wrong 95% of the time, give or take, I’d figure now is as good a time as any to point out this gem from early January: “Vitek’s tools all grade out similarly to fellow small school sensation Bryce Brentz. They both have plus bat speed, good plate discipline, and plus power potential. They are also both two-way players who have had success on the mound collegiately, though only Vitek could actually pull of the trick of being a legit draft prospect as either a hitter or pitcher. In addition to a glove/arm combination that will definitely play at third professionally, Vitek does all the little things well that make scouts (and wannabe’s like me) very happy. He is a sensational base runner, works deep counts, and has one of the coolest names this side of Yordy Cabrera. Vitek’s utter dominance of the Great Lakes League this past summer sealed the deal for me. He may not be a first rounder in June, but he is as good a bet as any college hitter in the 2010 to be an impact player in the big leagues.” Ha, I called him “Bryce Brentz without a publicist.” Genius prognosticating and comic gold. The myth of the next Jim Callis/Steve Martin super-hybrid has finally been realized.
2010 MLB Draft: Top 30 College Second Base Prospects
30. Howard JC SO 2B Marcellous Biggins – Raw on the bases, in the field, and at the plate, but when you are this far down the list a plus tool like Biggins’ speed is enough to get noticed.
29. Pacific JR 2B JB Brown – Above-average hitter in the mold of Josh Vitters, Howie Kendrick, and Placido Polanco. Of course, those three names were superior prospects at various points in their respective development; I’m talking about the type of hitter, not necessarily the quality of hitter. Brown is a notorious hacker, but has shown an uncanny ability to swing at pitches he can handle. Hitters like this are typically far too batting average dependent to emerge as successful professionals, but they make for interesting case studies as they progress through the minors.
28. Sam Houston State JR 2B Braden Riley – Another player with an interesting hit tool, but probably not enough power or patience to advance too far up the ladder professionally.
27. Kent State JR 2B Jared Humphreys – Really good athlete with plus speed and great baseball instincts who is capable of playing a variety of positions on the diamond. He’s probably best defensively in the outfield, but his bat players much better at second. Could be an organizational player who wears down a team over
26. Connecticut JR 2B Pierre LePage – Stock is lower here than in other spots, an opinion based largely on his groundball inducing swing plane and lack of meaningful physical strength. In his defense, LePage qualifies as the type of player who grows on you every time you watch him play; pro scouts love guys like that. He can do just enough of everything, and do it all pretty well, but his slap hitting style could get the bat knocked out of his hands as a pro.
25. North Carolina State SR 2B Dallas Poulk – Four years of starter’s at bats have finally paid off for the hard working Poulk. Long considered the inferior prospect to his cousin, Drew, Dallas’s ultra productive 2010 season has finally gotten the attention of area scouts. What they are seeing is another potential organizational player at second, but one with just enough juice in his bat to make a conversion to catching a worthwhile risk.
24. Arizona JR 2B Rafael Valenzuela – Less toolsy, less athletic version of Jared Humphreys, but similar defensive versatility and solid hit tool. What separates Valenzuela is a more professional approach at the plate and, despite less upside, a greater chance of helping a big league team someday.
23. St John’s JR 2B Greg Hopkins – A college third baseman better suited for second in the pros, Hopkins is a very well-rounded ballplayer who grades out with at least fringe average tools in all areas but foot speed. His 45 arm should be enough for second, and his gap power is better suited for the keystone sack than third. Looks like another organizational guy with the upside of a utility player.
22. Central Florida JR 2B Derek Luciano – His name makes me think slick fielding, speed middle infielder, but in reality Luciano is a below-average runner and inconsistent fielder who will have to rely on his lefthanded power if he wants to make it in pro ball. His good, but not great 2010 season has tempered some of the pre-season enthusiasm surrounding his prospect stock.
21. Florida JR 2B Josh Adams– Personal favorite heading into the year has struggled as one of the veteran anchors of a young Gators lineup. His scouting reports are largely favorable, despite the subpar junior season. Like a few other names below him on the list, Adams will be helped by his positional versatility as he tries to make it in the pros as a utility guy.
20. College of Charleston SR 2B Joey Bergman – Any regular reader should know that I wasn’t a Christian Colon fan coming into the year. To fill the void atop my shortstop rankings, I stubbornly tried to convince myself that there was somebody at the college level better. The one name that came up in conversations with people smarter than I am multiple times was Joey Bergman, but always with the caveat that he won’t stick at the position as a pro. Ultimately, nobody could vouch for any player over Colon at shortstop, but the positive vibes I kept hearing when discussing Bergman stuck with me. He’s another versatile defender who can play both up the middle spots, and his high contact rate bodes well going forward.
19. Georgia Southern SR 2B AJ Wirnsberger – The position-less Wirnsberger is on the second base list by default because, well, his bat is good enough to get him drafted, but his glove leaves much to be desired. Unlike a few other defensively flexible players on the list, Wirnsberger projects as a utility guy based more on a reputation as an iffy glove that needs to be hidden rather than a naturally versatile defender. The reason finding him a position is worth the trouble at all is the bat. A hotly recruited prep player, Wirnsberger has good loft on his swing and punishes mistakes, especially when he can get his hands extended. He could find a home behind the plate if a team believes his strong arm will play.
18. Miami SR 2B Scott Lawson – Lawson, Jemile Weeks’ successor at second for Miami, has done nothing but hit since stepping on campus. Above-average hit tool, fantastic plate discipline, ten homer pro pop, and strong defense across the board…can you tell he is a personal favorite? Lawson’s spot on the list begins a stretch of players that I think can play regularly in the big leagues if everything, and I mean everything, breaks right for them.
17. Clemson SR 2B Mike Freeman – Almost an identical player to Scott Lawson, but Freeman provides better footwork in the field and a smidge better speed on the bases. He also possesses one of the quietest, most compact swings I’ve seen at the college level in some time, and has a well earned reputation as a player who doesn’t go the plate without first knowing as much as possible about the opposition. Solid hit tool, above-average speed, good defender, efficient swing, veteran approach….obvious enough we have another personal favorite on our hands, right?
16. Canisius JR 2B Steve McQuail – McQuail has a pro body, pro power, and pro arm, but currently has too many holes in his long, loopy swing to profile as a regular. That said, McQuail’s tools are good enough to believe he has a chance to succeed professionally with the help of a good professional hitting instructor. I know I’m coming off like a broken record here, but when I read certain aspects of McQuail’s scouting reports (athletic, plus arm, only decent at second) I really can’t help but think some pro team has to think of him as a potential catching conversion.
15. Cal State Fullerton JR 2B Corey Jones – Jones is in pretty good company as the best 2010 draft-eligible Titan after a couple of guys named Christian Colon and Gary Brown. Live bat, power potential, and quickly maturing plate discipline, plus the possibility of some time back at his natural shortstop make for an intriguing pro prospect with more upside than your typical college athlete.
14. Southern JR 2B Curtis Wilson– Underrated player who is a good athlete with above-average speed and a really well rounded tool set. Biggest obstacle might be the lack of exposure and lack of one signature standout tool. Funny how a strength (no true weaknesses to his game) can be portrayed as a liability (no eye opening tool) in the next sentence. Speaking of second baseman from Southern, how awesome was Rickie Weeks? His junior year numbers: .500/.619/.987 with 27 steals in 27 tries. He’s probably the second baseman on my all-time favorite non-home team player team.
13. Kentucky JR 2B Chris Bisson– Steady enough to someday ascend to an everyday big league spot, but not currently in possession of any consistent standout tool. Noticing a trend yet? Bisson is lower here than ever I expected, but it’s more about liking the players ranked higher than disliking him. His upside is as a regular .275ish hitter (55) with low double digit homers (40) and above-average plate discipline. Add in a glove that borders on plus and you’ve got yourself a player that big league teams should start thinking about popping in the top ten rounds easy.
12. Kansas SR 2B Robby Price – Differences between Bisson and Price are more perception than reality at this point. Bisson offers up more speed and a little more power projection, but Price has the edge in the field and batting eye. For teams that go overslot both early (first 5 rounds) and late (round 25 and up) in the draft, the middle rounds — 10ish to 25ish — are an area where cheap organizational types are often gobbled up. Price fits that prototype, but is more talented than the typical fringe of the roster taken.
11. California JR 2B BJ Guinn – Might be good enough to hold an everyday job for a team that emphasizes speed and defense up the middle based on those two plus tools alone. The speed is very good, I don’t want to deemphasize his ability there, but it’s Guinn’s glove that really gets your attention. His arm may be a little short for the left side of the diamond, but his crazy range as second can’t help but make you wonder what kind of shortstop he’d be if given the chance.
10. Florida Southern JR 2B Wade Kirkland– For me, a better prospect than Robbie Shields, third rounder in 2009. Shields has more raw power and a better arm, but Kirkland has more present gap power and a more reliable glove.
9. Rutgers JR 2B Brandon Boykin– After excelling against relatively high level northeastern prep competition at Don Bosco Prep, Boykin has finally enjoyed a breakout season with the bat in year three at Rutgers. Friend of a friend of a friend told me the Phillies have him as a high priority mid-round middle infield target, no doubt because of his plus speed and surprisingly springy bat.
8. Cerritos CC SO 2B Joe Terry– The quintessential hitting machine who makes hard contact darn near every time he steps to the plate. He does more than just hit, however; Terry is also an above-average runner with a strong arm who, despite appearing to fight his body sometimes in the field, should settle in as at least an average second baseman with the help of professional coaching. He reinvented himself somewhat in 2010 sacrificing some power for a more patient approach, but the 19th round pick from 2010 has maintained that draft momentum all the same.
7. Alabama JR 2B Ross Wilson– Pretty clear scouting over statistics pick. Wilson has as much power potential and athleticism as any player below him on the list, but has disappointed scouts who expected much more with the bat this spring. His numbers all fall below the three magic thresholds (slugging below .550, more K’s than BB’s, way less than 20 steals), so his placement on this list is a testament to the confidence I have in a plus athlete figuring out how to apply his significant tools before long. High risk, high reward pick that could either emerge as a legit big league caliber starting player or flame out in AA.
6. Virginia JR 2B Phil Gosselin– Remains an average to slightly below-average infielder (capable of playing third and short in a pinch) with an average arm well suited for second base, who many believe may ultimately wind up in the outfield as a pro. That’s what I’ve heard, anyway. I’m not necessarily buying it; heck, his mere presence on this list indicates I think it would be best to keep Gosselin at second as long as possible professionally. He doesn’t have the glove/range for center, and doesn’t have the bat for a corner. If he isn’t a starting caliber outfielder, why not at least give him a shot in the infield? Coming into the year I thought his future was as a big league super-sub, but his big junior year has me thinking his bat could work at second if the glove cooperates.
5. Louisville SR 2B Adam Duvall – I’m as big a Louisville fan (prospect-wise) you’ll find outside of Kentucky, so take the Duvall ranking with a grain of salt. His speed and defense aren’t elite, but he’s strong enough in both areas. It’ll be his bat that gets him his shot as he rises to minor league prominence. Duvall reminds me a lot of great deal of 2009 fourth round pick Derek McCallum. Both players have really nice swings who should each hit for good averages with enough extra-base hits to keep pitchers honest.
4. Stanford JR 2B Colin Walsh – I wrote before the season that Walsh had a really pretty swing that caused scouts to project more power in his future. The future is now. Walsh’s excellent results on the field have finally caught up to his positive scouting reports. He also has an outstanding glove at second that may actually be good enough to work at shortstop, giving hope that he can be a utility infielder in the mold of Marco Scutaro someday. His offensive progression with Stanford actually reminds me of former Cardinal Cord Phelps, but, and this bears repeating, Walsh’s glove is outstanding. Phelps was a third rounder as a hitter with slightly less college production, a bit more physical projection, and a significantly lesser glove. 2010 is a really strong draft, especially near the top, but I’d still say that comparison bodes well for Walsh come draft day.
3. Chipola JC FR 2B LeVon Washington – Thought Washington wasn’t worth a first round grade in 2009, but the Tampa front office’s seal of approval is enough to make any good draft fan reconsider. His plus speed remains a major strength, as does his strong contact skills and intriguing power potential, but his post-injury noodle arm is a concern at any defensive position, even second. Even though I’m still not personally sold on the bat playing at higher levels, there is little denying Washington’s four-tool upside.
2. West Virginia JR 2B Jedd Gyorko – I’m not a scout, so I try not to pretend to be one if at all possible, but, if you’ll indulge me just this one, I have to point out the marked difference between Gyorko’s 2010 swing and his 2009 swing. The majority of his damage last season came on guesswork when he’d get nearly all his weight shifted up on his front foot and hack away. His stride is way more efficient this year, with a vastly improved, far more balanced load and launch. Very encouraging progress. Defensively, Gyorko will never be known for his range, but his soft hands should enable him to make all the plays at balls hit at or near him. The two most prevalent (and optimistic) comps are Kevin Youkilis and Dan Uggla, but ultimately Gyorko’s power upside pales in comparison. For me, Gyorko’s upside is that of the new Ben Zobrist.
1. Ball State JR 2B Kolbrin Vitek – Modest son of a gun I am, I’d never toot my own horn about getting out ahead of a prospect’s emergence, but, seeing as I’m wrong 95% of the time, give or take, I’d figure now is as good a time as any to point out this gem from early January: “Vitek’s tools all grade out similarly to fellow small school sensation Bryce Brentz. They both have plus bat speed, good plate discipline, and plus power potential. They are also both two-way players who have had success on the mound collegiately, though only Vitek could actually pull of the trick of being a legit draft prospect as either a hitter or pitcher. In addition to a glove/arm combination that will definitely play at third professionally, Vitek does all the little things well that make scouts (and wannabe’s like me) very happy. He is a sensational base runner, works deep counts, and has one of the coolest names this side of Yordy Cabrera. Vitek’s utter dominance of the Great Lakes League this past summer sealed the deal for me. He may not be a first rounder in June, but he is as good a bet as any college hitter in the 2010 to be an impact player in the big leagues.” Ha, I called him “Bryce Brentz without a publicist.” Genius prognosticating and comic gold. The myth of the next Jim Callis/Steve Martin super-hybrid has finally been realized.
College Second Basemen: A Brief History
Breaking news! College second basemen selected in the first 20 rounds of the MLB Draft need to show exceptional ability in one of three offensive categories – power, plate discipline, or speed. I know, I was shocked to find out that big league clubs value those things as well. A quick study of early round college second basemen shows that 78% of college 2B taken in the top 20 rounds over the past three years showed standout skills in one of the three aforementioned areas.
Caveats for this quick and dirty study include a) small sample (only three years worth of data), b) unscientific standards (power = minimum .550 SLG; plate discipline = more walks than strikeouts; speed = 20+ stolen bases), and c) 2010 statistics were park and scheduled adjusted (thanks, College Splits!), but 2007-2009 statistics were left as is.
Tomorrow we’ll look at players in the 2010 draft class that fit the criteria, as well as a top 20…or 25…or 30…list of top college 2B prospects. To just give an idea of what information can potentially be teased out with these quick studies, three “big” name players that don’t currently (as of 4/26/10) surpass any of the three statistical benchmarks include Alabama JR 2B Ross Wilson, California JR 2B Brian Guinn and Central Florida JR 2B Derek Luciano. That’s not to say that the positive scouting reports on each will be ignored, but it’s something to at least consider going forward. On the flip side, there are three or four 2010 draft-eligible college second basemen with the chance to hit the over on all three statistical benchmarks. Identities revealed tomorrow.
Until then, check out the complete list of college second basemen taken in the top twenty rounds over the past three drafts. Slash stats are obvious (AVG/OBP/SLG), but the other two sets of numbers are BB/K and SB/SBA. Players that did not hit any of the three benchmarks are in bold. Players that hit on all three benchmarks denoted with the triple star (***) badge of honor.
2009
California JR 2B Jeff Kobernus: .341/.385/.544 (17/25; 20/24)
North Carolina JR 2B Kyle Seager: .393/.487/.592 (45/38; 13/14)
Minnesota JR 2B Derek McCallum: .409/.485/.741 (30/34; 6/6)
Cal Poly JR 2B Adam Buschini: .422/.484/.730 (21/26; 13/15)
LSU JR 2B Ryan Schimpf: .336/.449/.668 (44/50; 18/25)
*** Western Carolina JR 2B Nick Liles: .367/.421/.571 (21/21; 24/30)
Rice JR 2B Brock Holt: .348/.427/.560 (34/35; 11/16)
Pittsburgh JR 2B Chris Sedon: .398/.453/.796 (13/41; 19/25)
Southern Mississippi SR 2B James Ewing: .308/.384/.418 (26/19; 3/5)
*** New Mexico JR 2B Mike Brownstein: .414/.486/.611 (34/23; 20/26)
Belmont JR 2B Daniel Wagner: .323/.359/.523 (13/27; 24/28)
Coastal Carolina SR 2B Tyler Bortnick: .363/.461/.566 (38/33; 10/15)
Arkansas SR 2B Ben Tschepikow: .317/.398/.513 (31/33; 17/23)
UC Santa Barbara JR 2B Matt Valaika: .343/.413/.545 (13/16; 1/2)
2008
*** Miami JR 2B Jemile Weeks: .363/.452/.641 (35/38; 22/23)
New Orleans JR 2B Johnny Giovotella: .354/.470/.591 (53/25; 19/26)
Virginia JR 2B David Adams: .286/.384/.411 (41/39; 16/19)
Stanford JR 2B Cord Phelps: .351/.445/.587 (41/38; 6/10)
Delaware JR 2B Alex Buchholz: .319/.401/.515 (15/24; 4/6)
*** Cincinnati JR 2B Josh Harrison: .378/.437/.559 (25/20; 32/40)
California SR 2B Josh Satin: .379/.500/.723 (47/45; 6/9)
Tulane JR 2B Anthony Scelfo: .322/.453/.578 (54/46; 8/11)
Auburn JR 2B Matthew Hall: .279/.342/.411 (19/41; 7/10)
Belmont Abbey College SO 2B Alex Castellanos: .390/.452/.683 (15/22; 9/14)
Vanderbilt SR 2B Dominic De la Osa: .297/.410/.506 (36/54; 27/33)
Mississippi State JR 2B Michael Turner: .217/.217/.348 (0/1; 0/0)
Nebraska SR 2B Jake Opitz: .339/.434/.568 (37/26; 13/15)
Texas A&M SR 2B Blake Stouffer: .258/.399/.378 (47/48; 17/21)
Fresno State JR 2B Erik Wetzel: .365/.452/.495 (44/42; 12/18)
Florida Atlantic SR 2B Daniel Cook: .293/.410/.556 (21/16; 3/7)
UCLA SR 2B Alden Carrithers: .377/.484/.543 (40/32; 17/23)
Georgia Southern SR 2B Jeremy Beckham: .333/.434/.386 (26/22; 24/29)
Tennessee SR 2B Andrew Simunic: .297/.379/.370 (23/25; 20/23)
UC Irvine SR 2B Ben Orloff: .358/.414/.409 (21/16; 18/23)
Long Beach State JR 2B Jason Tweedy: .306/.370/.430 (10/26; 2/3)
Southern Mississippi SR 2B Trey Sutton: .315/.409/.457 (20/20; 3/5)
2007
Arizona State JR 2B Eric Sogard: .394/.488/.619 (39/23; 18/23)
*** Florida State JR 2B Tony Thomas: .430/.522/.733 (43/39; 31/36)
Loyola Marymount JR 2B Eric Farris: .349/.418/.466 (23/14; 33/42)
South Carolina JR 2B Travis Jones: .318/.416/.594 (28/46; 13/17)
Auburn JR 2B Russell Dixon: .313/.379/.470 (14/40; 0/2)
Wichita State JR 2B Damon Sublett: .354/.462/.496 (49/40; 14/16)
UC Irvine SR 2B Cody Cipriano: .339/.433/.605 (35/50; 10/15)
New Mexico JR 2B Jordan Pacheco: .397/.511/.580 (43/28; 7/10)
Mississippi JR 2B Justin Henry: .381/.450/.496 (30/21; 22/28)
Southern California JR 2B Matt Cusick: .324/.415/.412 (31/17; 10/15)
Tulane JR 2B Brad Emaus: .329/.439/.443 (41/23; 3/7)
Missouri State JR 2B Matt Lawson: .270/.313/.352 (13/43; 17/22)
Southern Indiana JR 2B Darin Mastroianni: .409/.484/.549 (31/22; 64/67)
Mississippi State SR 2B Jeffrey Rea: .343/.417/.412 (29/20; 13/17)
Texas SR 2B Nick Peoples: .329/.421/.488 (19/34; 18/23)
Tampa JR 2B Ryan Kennedy: .387/.485/.641 (42/18; 7/11)
Western Carolina SR 2B Kenny Smith: .390/.451/.759 (30/20; 14/16)
Louisville SR 2B Logan Johnson: .364/.488/.663 (35/29; 9/13)
Bryce Harper – The Importance of Makeup
There have been whispers out of Las Vegas for months now that presumptive first overall pick Bryce Harper’s, shall we say, “intensively competitive” and “self-assured” manner wasn’t playing all that well with the scouts assigned to watch his every step. This past week, however, those whispers grew just a teensy bit louder after Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus dropped the following in a piece about the lingering questions some talent evaluators still have about Harper’s lock on the top overall spot in the draft:
The Makeup: This should not be underrated. It’s impossible to find any talent evaluator who isn’t blown away by Harper’s ability on the field, but it’s equally difficult to find one who doesn’t genuinely dislike the kid. One scout called him among the worst amateur players he’s ever seen from a makeup standpoint, with top-of-the-scale arrogance, a disturbingly large sense of entitlement, and on-field behavior that includes taunting opponents. “He’s just a bad, bad guy,” said one front-office official. “He’s basically the anti-Joe Mauer.” How this plays into the negotiation or future evaluation is yet to be determined, as history has shown us that the bigger talent a player is, the more makeup issues teams will deal with. Bench players can’t afford to be problems, but plenty of teams happily put up with difficult superstars.
One of the most interesting and underrated aspects of the entire draft process is the depth in which area scouts go to uncover as much information about the prospects they are assigned to cover. If the NFL Scouting Combine really is the “world’s largest job interview,” as I’ve heard it referred to in the past, then the amateur scouting period in baseball is certainly in the running for the longest. Major League Baseball is a billion dollar industry with a finite number of job openings. Before investing large sums of money in a new employee, you’d better be darn sure you’ve done everything in your power to ensure that you are hiring a person you trust can get the job done. To that end, I have no qualms whatsoever with the abstract idea of “makeup.” Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of a player’s performance on the field is priority one, but that same evaluation of a player’s on-field abilities must be weighed against certain general personality parameters (“makeup”), especially traits that are believed could potentially alter future job performance.
Deciding on what traits could potentially alter job performance is entirely up to the individual doing the evaluating, I suppose. For me, “makeup” boils down to two main sets of questions. I first want to know whether or not the player is receptive to coaching. Will he put in the work to improve his game? Is he willing to listen when asked to consider trying a different approach or technique? Can he subjugate his ego long enough to take legitimate instruction from somebody paid to help him succeed? I then want to know how the player will react when things don’t go well. A large number of top amateur players, especially the high schoolers, have never experienced any kind of sustained stretch of significant athletic failure. How does the high school star who only knows the ups of hitting .600 and being the big man on campus react when suddenly hitting under .200 while riding lonely buses from Danville to Pulaski? This concern doubles back into the initial set of questions; when a player struggles, and it truly is a matter of when and not if, can he accept the professional coaching and support designed to help him become a big leaguer?
As far as the actual quotes cited in Goldstein’s piece, well, it appears to me as though an opportunity was missed. To the front-office official who called Harper “a bad, bad guy,” I’d really want to know if, based on the perceived seriousness of such an accusation, he would have the fortitude to go to his boss and recommend another player over Harper atop the draft board. Do these talent evaluators so willing to go on record about Harper’s makeup genuinely believe his “bad, bad” personality to be such a potential problem to his development that they would not want their employer to draft him? Are these personality issues so severe that the unnamed front-office officials don’t believe Harper will ever be able to fully harness his immense physical gifts? Or do the makeup concerns represent something closer to an annoyance, one not quite large enough to prevent Harper from superstardom on the field, but always lurking on the periphery as a warning not to do anything to upset the mercurial franchise player? I’d like to ask the front-office official whether he thought Harper’s makeup concerns were closer stylistically to Barry Bonds’ (entitled jerk off the field, destroyer of opposing teams’ dreams on it) or somebody like Darryl Strawberry’s (victimized by personal demons so severe that his on-field play suffered despite unrivaled physical talent)? As much as I think I know the answer to those questions already, I’d genuinely like to know how the front-office official would respond when pressed. Of course, that will never happen.
As someone who follows the draft almost exclusively as an outsider in the industry, I’m not privy to the kind of front-office member chatter that others can claim. I’m left to make the majority of my judgments on publicly available information. I won’t ever profess to having any insider knowledge about Bryce Harper’s personality or general on-field temperament other than what anybody else out there can read or see with their own two eyes. That said, Harper’s performance both on and off the field this season serves as a pretty strong argument in his favor. If I’m going on facts alone, the simple fact is Bryce Harper is having one heck of a year playing baseball. To accomplish all that has done on the field against players sometimes three or four years older while simulatenously dealing with the biggest amateur baseball media circus since, well I guess since Stephen Strasburg last season, but before that since as long as anybody can remember, is truly a remarkable feat. His on-field performance has exceeded even the most optimistic of projections and the coaching staff at Southern Nevada has been effusive in their praise of the kid. Really, what more can anybody realistically ask for a 17 year old catching prospect already dubbed the LeBron James of baseball playing wood bat junior college ball with the eyes of the industry watching his every move?
Since the article was published, by the way, Harper has put up the following batting line while splitting time in right field and behind the plate:
7-14, 4 HR, 2B, 13 RBI, 8 R, 2 SB, 1 BB, 1 K
That’s good for a weekend line of .500/.533/1.429. If Washington could fast forward the next six weeks and take Harper first overall tomorrow, they’d do it.
Alternate Reality MLB Mock Draft 2010: The NFL Takes Over
Roger Goodell rules the NFL with an iron fist, does he not? After finally tiring of wielding his unprecedented power of America’s Game, the commissioner now has set his sights on making big changes to America’s Pastime. First change? Unifying the draft order between the two sports. That’s right. This year’s MLB Draft order will be taken directly from the recently completed 2010 NFL Draft. As soon as the Rams went on the clock last night, so did the Cardinals. When the Lions celebrated taking the draft’s best player with the second overall pick, scouts for the Tigers were pouring over scouting reports of players they never believed they’d have a chance to get under the previous draft rules. Get the idea? Good. Prepare for more inanity with yet another Friday edition of an Alternate Reality Mock Draft!
1.1 St. Louis Rams/Cardinals: C Bryce Harper – Southern Nevada
As one of the few who believes Jimmy Clausen will be a better pro QB than Sam Bradford, allow me to express my hypocritical bewilderment that anybody in his/her right mind could think of a realistic scenario where Bryce Harper does not go first overall in the 2010 MLB Draft. The very thought of Harper not going first overall is pure lunacy, but, as mentioned, I realize that such a statement is at least a tad hypocritical coming from somebody who prefers a second round quarterback to the consensus number one pick in the draft. I’ve been told by certain fellow NFL Draft nuts that Bradford is leap years ahead of Clausen as a prospect; these certain people are ridiculously devoted to following college football and the NFL Draft, and, for whatever it’s worth, have dozens more meaningful contacts within the NFL than I do within MLB. They tell me that all, or at the very least nearly all, 32 teams have Bradford above Clausen on their boards. They tell me that certain teams viewed Bradford as the best QB prospect since Eli Manning. You’d think I’d be smart and defer to their expertise, but…no. I’m stupid. I admit it, but, based on what I’ve seen and read, I just like Clausen more. The doubts about his game are less significant to me than the ones surrounding Bradford. I get that some people may feel the same way about the gigantic risks associated with taking a prospect likely to demand more money than any silly junior college catcher should ever ask for. That’s fine. I’m being stupid about Clausen, so they can be stupid about Harper. Who am I to judge?
1.2 Detroit Lions/Tigers: RHP Jameson Taillon – The Woodlands HS (Texas)
Fireballing righthanded pitcher goes to Detroit with an early round selection. Feels vaguely familiar, doesn’t it? Taillon going second overall isn’t quite the slam dunk that picking Ndamukong Suh was, but it’s pretty close. Verlander-Porcello-Scherzer-Turner-Taillon. Scary.
1.3 Tampa (Bay) Buccaneers/Rays: RHP AJ Cole – Oviedo HS (Florida)
Stubbornly sticking with Cole as the second prep pitcher off the board, but slowly beginning to soften my once Gerald McCoy-esque strong position on the subject. Am I forcing these NFL Draft analogies a little bit? Anyway, as for the Tampa connection to the pick, well, I’d be lying if I had any actual idea what direction they’d go with their pick of any non-Harper/non-Taillon player on the board available. The Rays have very few easily discernible draft patterns, with perhaps the one exception being an emphasis on long-term upside stemming from faith in their magic touch with in-house player development. Cole or Karsten Whitson certainly fit the bill on the upside tip, and I was tempted to give them a bat like Manny Machado or Nick Castellanos. Ultimately, Baby Verlander is the pick.
1.4 Washington Redskins/Nationals: LHP Drew Pomeranz – Mississippi
Stephen Strasburg is joined by the potentially quick moving Pomeranz as a lethal 1-2 combination atop the Nationals rotation. If the presence of two ace caliber pitchers can’t get the fans out to the ballpark in Washington, nothing short of actually moving the Redskins back to the District will.
1.5 Kansas City Chiefs/Royals: RHP Karsten Whitson – Chipley HS (Florida)
Back in December I wrote this about Whitson: “Whitson, currently ranked fourth in this little subgroup, has a potential dynamite 1-2 punch with his fastball (sitting 91-93, hitting 95-96) and slider (works best in the mid-80s, but has shown up as a less effective slurvy high-70s CB at times), but I think his mechanics will need something pretty close to a complete overhaul as a professional.”
Sounds like the slider has tightened up a great deal this spring and his changeup is much improved. It goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway – that’s very, very good news for his prospect stock. Next stop, consensus top ten pick!
1.6 Seattle Seahawks/Mariners: 3B Zack Cox – Arkansas
Wanted to give Jack Z an elite projectable high school arm or a plus defender at a premium defensive position, but, alas, no such player exists at this point in the draft. Cox, far and away the best college position player in 2010, is a swell consolation prize and, as an added bonus, gives the Seattle system someone with much needed power upside.
1.7 Cleveland Browns/Indians: RHP Deck McGuire – Georgia Tech
Both Cleveland and Kansas City stinking in both baseball and football really make this mock easy for me. I really like McGuire to Cleveland in a real mock, so it only makes sense to stick with him here.
1.8 Oakland Raiders/Athletics: RHP Anthony Ranaudo – Louisiana State
Buffalo and Jacksonville, owners of the next two picks in the NFL Draft’s first round, will both have to enjoy CJ Spiller and Tyson Alaualu instead of partaking in my fake NFL/MLB mock amalgalmation here. Injured college starting pitchers are the new Moneyball! I may not like a healthy Ranaudo as much as many seem to, but even I can’t quibble with a pro team scouting him and scouting him and scouting him until they are happy enough to slap a top ten grade on him. I’m opinionated, no doubt, but I also know my limitations; Ranaudo may not be my guy, but I can at least appreciate why some team is likely to grade him out as a top ten prospect.
1.9 Denver Broncos/Colorado Rockies: OF Austin Wilson – Harvard-Westlake HS (California)
Broncos? NFL? Draft? That can only mean one thing! TebowTebowTebowTebowTebowTebowTebowTebowTebow…
1.10 Miami Dolphins/Florida Marlins: SS Manny Machado – Brito HS (Florida)
Not really sure how well Machado would fit in Parcells’ 3-4, but he could potentially serve as a long-term successor to Hanley Ramirez in case the Marlins MVP ever has to move off the position. Also, he’s a local product and, let’s face it, lazy writers love plugging in local players to their nearest pro team when they have no other idea how to finish a mock…
More Data – April 22, 2010
Random sampling of some of the players I’ve kept track of so far this year…
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School – Year – Pitcher – % of batted ball outs classified as “ground balls”
San Diego SR RHP AJ Griffin – 31%
Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis – 71%
Texas JR RHP Brandon Workman – 55%
Louisiana State JR RHP Austin Ross – 38%
South Carolina JR RHP Sam Dyson – 64%
San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair – 50%
San Diego JR LHP Sammy Solis – 56%
California JR RHP Dixon Anderson – 67%
Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn – 70%
Arkansas JR RHP Brett Eibner – 43%
Florida State JR LHP John Gast – 67%
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Stanford SO LHP Brett Mooneyham – 66%
UCLA SO RHP Trevor Bauer – 43%
Vanderbilt SO RHP Jack Armstrong – 61%
Data – Friday Night Starting Pitchers
Something about Clemson’s Friday night lineup caught my eye recently. Anything about the following configuration of names look unusual?
Chris Epps
Mike Freeman
Jeff Schaus
Kyle Parker
Wilson Boyd
John Hinson
Brad Miller
John Nester
Will Lamb
Casey Harman
No? How about when you look at it from the official Clemson baseball website? Anything?
It is entirely likely that I’m 100% insane, but the way the names are configured in that lineup is just a little bit too perfect. You could draw a line down the right side of the last names and almost get a perfectly straight line. It would look darn near perfect if not for Mike Freeman near the top and starting pitcher Casey Harman at the bottom; their names each have 11 letters total, first and last.
The entire lineup in total letters (first and last name, including the pitcher):
9 – 11 – 10 – 10 – 10 – 10 – 10 – 10 – 8 – 11
The third through eighth batters in the lineup all have exactly ten letters in their names! Amazing!
It’s the little things in life we find amusing sometimes, right? Thank you all for humoring me, now please do enjoy some exclusive ground out percentages from a sampling of college baseball’s finest Friday night starting pitchers.
School – Year – Pitcher – % of batted ball outs classified as “ground balls”
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North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey – 69%
Notre Dame JR RHP Brian Dupra – 65%
Miami JR LHP Chris Hernandez – 64%
Kentucky JR LHP Logan Darnell – 64%
Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale – 62%
Mississippi JR LHP Drew Pomeranz – 52%
Tennessee JR LHP Bryan Morgado – 51%
Ohio State JR RHP Alex Wimmers – 50%
San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair – 50%
Georgia JR RHP Justin Grimm – 46%
Missouri JR RHP Nick Tepesch – 45%
Louisiana State JR RHP Anthony Ranaudo – 41%
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Vanderbilt SO RHP Sonny Gray – 72%
Texas SO RHP Taylor Jungmann – 69%
UCLA SO RHP Gerrit Cole – 59%
Rice SO LHP Taylor Wall – 55%

