The Baseball Draft Report

Obsessively Following the MLB Draft Since 2009

2010 MLB Draft College Conference Position Breakdowns – Big East Outfielders

Posted by Rob Ozga on February 9, 2010

Pick a conference, pick a position, pick a draft year, and go. That’s basically the formula for the 2010 MLB Draft College Conference Position Breakdowns. Nothing fancy, just a quick snapshot of where the college talent is and a quicker way of disseminating 2010 draft-eligible player information to the masses. Three quick facts worth remembering as you read – 1) All rankings are preliminary and subject to change, 2) The current rankings are the top X amount of guys, but players at the back end will be added intermittenly until all players are ranked, and 3) I can’t really think of a third thing to remember, but they say you’re always supposed to list things in three, so here you go…

As always, whether you agree, disagree, or think I’m a dope who should leave this sort of stuff to the experts (thanks, Mom)…let’s hear it via email (you can use either robozga at gmail dot com or thebaseballdraftreport at gmail dot com) or in the comments section.

Some quick thoughts before we get to the guts of the rankings. First, this isn’t a particularly good crop of prospects. If you are only really interested in the first few rounds of the draft, Ijames is probably the only name you need to know. After that, I’d guess only Lang, Lockwood, and maybe Richmond would be top ten round guys. The Cincinnati trio all show promise, but really everybody ranked after number four needs a good year of hitting if they want to head into the draft confident of getting selected.

1. SO OF Stewart Ijames (2010 – Louisville) missed the majority of the 2009 season with a torn rotator cuff, but his talent is so obvious that he heads into the 2010 season with top five round buzz. Ijames has excellent bat speed and plus power potential, a good approach at the plate, and enough defensive aptitude that he should be an above-average defender in a corner. He reminds me a little bit of Idaho guard Mike Iupati; both players have last names that I’ve seen mistakenly spelled with an “L” instead of an “I.”

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2. JR OF Michael Lang (2010 – Rutgers) offers up a very intriguing power/speed combination, emphasis on the speed. The former walk-on has come a long way since enrolling at Rutgers; I actually like him a little bit better than his more highly regarded teammate Jaren Matthews. Lang has the ability to play centerfield professionally and his plus arm should make him a defensive athlete in due time. His offensive skill set could make him an option hitting leadoff in the big leagues someday.

3. JR OF Ryan Lockwood (2010 – South Florida) couldn’t duplicate the success of his outstanding freshman campaign, but still showed off enough of his toolset to keep scouts happy. Lockwood has good speed, plays above-average defense, and has average raw power (though little of it has manifested just yet). His best tool is obviously the bat, something a .415 freshman batting average does a good job of arguing in favor of. His draft stock will shoot up as high as his bat takes him, but his other skills (namely the defense and speed) will help keep him in the first 15-20 rounds even if he doesn’t hit .400 again.

4. JR OF Josh Richmond (2010 – Louisville) delivers five solid tools – defense good enough for center, a very strong arm, emerging power but questionable ceiling with the bat, and average speed. Richmond is currently below the radar a little bit, but he could pretty easily put it all together and get himself picked in the first ten rounds this spring.

5. SO OF Anthony Howard (2010 – Cincinnati) is a draft-eligible sophomore with a lot to like about his game. He is a solid contact hitter who goes to the plate with a plan in mind. That, along with his plus athleticism and good speed, should make him a successful leadoff hitter going forward. Some teams may like him more as an infielder, a position he played in high school. He has great baseball instincts no matter where he plays, and his above-average arm should play well at any position.

6. JR OF Mikel Huston (2010 – Cincinnati) comes to Cincinnati with the reputation as a hitter first and an athlete second. That’s alright by me so long as you can really hit, something we won’t really know about Huston until he starts getting his swings in this spring. Early word, so take it for what it’s worth, is that he has an advanced hit tool with enough power potential to get on follow lists. He has below-average speed that will relegate to him to an outfield corner, but, again take these for what they are, early reports are that his defensive instincts are excellent. I’d guess he doesn’t have quite enough bat to ever play every day, but could make a solid backup down the line.

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7. JR OF Justin Riddell (2010 – Cincinnati) is a good natural hitter that may not have the requisite secondary skills to make it as much more of a role player professionally.

8. OF/2B JR Brandon Boykin (2010 – Rutgers) may be coming off a poor sophomore year, but his plus speed and excellent athleticism make him worth watching this spring. His value will go up if scouts believe he can play in the infield.

9. SR OF Jimmy Parque (2010 – St. John’s) was a 40th round pick out of junior college in 2008 with solid gap power and a good approach at the dish. His size (5-9, 170) may be a deterrent for some teams, but a big final college season could make him a late round senior sign candidate.

10. JR OF John Schultz (2010 – Pittsburgh) doesn’t have any exceptional tools, but his good plate discipline means he rarely gets cheated at the plate and his good speed can help him take extra bases when needed on the base paths.

11. JR OF Stephen Hunt (2010 – South Florida) has a strong arm tailor made for right field and enough pop to garner some attention, but probably needs a big junior season if he wants to exceed his draft standing (17th round) out of high school here in 2010.

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12. JR OF Junior Carlin (2010 – South Florida) profiles similarly to teammate Ryan Lockwood, except Carlin put together a huge batting average dependent line as a sophomore while Lockwood’s big line (.415/.493/.513) came in his freshman season. Like Lockwood, Carlin can also play a legitimate centerfield, but, unlike Lockwood, his speed has been questioned. So, he’s like Lockwood but without some of the speed and the secondary hitting skills. Not an awful prospect, but not a stone cold lock to be drafted either.

13. SR OF Jarred Jimenez (2010 – Rutgers) is a bit of a rarity, a small (5-9, 190) outfielder without the speed and range to project as a centerfielder. He does have good plate discipline, so he has at least that one plus going for him.

14. SR OF David Mills (2010 – Notre Dame) is a similar player to Jarred Jimenez of Rutgers – strong arm, corner outfielder, tiny (5-9, 165), great plate discipline. Mills is probably the better runner of the two. He has a reputation of being a line drive machine, but the knocks against him (size, power, can’t play center) keep his ceiling from being much higher than fifth outfielder on a good day.

15. JR OF Pat Biserta (2010 – Rutgers) only has one tool that grades out as above-average, but it is the ever important power tool. Just to be clear, we’re talking about the hitting the ball out of the ballpark kind of power tool, not the cordless drill kind of power tool.

Posted in 2010 MLB Draft, 2010 Outfielders | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Wichita State Shockers 2010 Draft-Eligible Prospects

Posted by Rob Ozga on February 8, 2010

Another day, another (mostly) completed College Team Profile. All of the 2010 draft-eligible Shockers, from Coy to Gilmore, can now lay claim to at least getting a little attention from this tiny corner the internet. You can find the updated list by either scrolling down the page a bit or clicking right here:

Wichita State Shockers 2010 Draft-Eligible Prospects

So far, I’ve completed 2010 College Team Profiles on Virginia, Stanford, and 90% of LSU. Those are some of the best of the best programs college baseball has to offer, bursting at the seams with easily identifiable talent all over the diamond. Wichita State, a damn fine program in its own right, can’t exactly claim to match the star power of those potential top-ten schools on a consistent basis, but still offers up an intriguing mix of high risk, high upside prospects, highlighted (see what I did there?) by draft-eligible freshman Johnny Coy and draft-eligible sophomore Jordan Cooper. I’m personally a much bigger believer in Coy than I am in Cooper, but the consensus opinion still regards Cooper as the top draft-eligible Shocker. Maybe I just really want to see an NBA-sized MLB third baseman whose name isn’t Ryan Minor, I don’t know.

Coy and Cooper are locks to be drafted and really smart bets to be drafted quite high. After those two, however, things get far dicier for Wichita’s 2010 draft-eligibles. Ryan Jones and Tim Kelley should both find their way onto team’s draft boards in the mid-rounds (10-20, I’d guess), but, really, those are the only four players I feel 100% confident will get drafted off the Wichita State roster. Two of my favorite sleepers (Preston Springer and Cobey Guy) need to have the big seasons I’m predicting they will to get serious draft love; Springer’s bat is one to watch and his value will shoot up if a team believes he can handle third again, while Guy’s above-average stuff and sterling collegiate numbers ought to get him noticed by somebody, somewhere. A couple of two-way players, Mitch Caster and Clint McKeever, round out the list of Shockers with at least a glimmer of hope to be drafted in 2010. Caster is the better prospect, but McKeever could latch on with a club in the last few rounds for his versatility, if nothing else.

Tyler Fleming has been drafted twice by Texas already (2006 and 2007), so would it really surprise anybody to see the Rangers spend a late pick on him? Fleming wouldn’t normally be a player to keep an eye on, but he clearly is on the radar of at least one big league team that we know of.

One guy I’ve actually heard positive things about since initially posting the list has been Will Baez. I still question his power, but his upside at second base was described to me as being a “reverse Carlos Ruiz.” Ruiz made the switch from second base to catcher shortly after being signed by the Phillies. Baez is one year removed from making the full-time switch from catching to playing second. In other words, Baez could be a prospect as a player with a limited ceiling with the bat, but a strong enough glove at his new position to provide net positive value. That doesn’t jive with my assessment of his defense (“shaky”), but, like I said, I’ve heard positive things about his progress this past fall/winter, especially with the glove.

I’m surprised about the weird idiosyncratic writing tics that I completely miss while writing, but then suddenly appear so clearly to me after finishing one last edit. Like, I’m just now realizing I used the word “moonlighting” twice in a span of seven players. Not sure if that is more of an indictment of my writing ability (poor on a good day) or the piece-meal approach I take to doing these profiles (spreading out the writeups over the course of a week or so). I’d normally go back and edit one of them out, but moonlighting is such a cool word that I’m inclined to just let it stand.

Posted in 2010 MLB Draft | Leave a Comment »

Stanford Cardinal 2010 Draft-Eligible Prospects

Posted by Rob Ozga on February 3, 2010

Now that I’ve finally finished combing through all of the Stanford 2010 draft-eligible players, let’s take a moment to reflect on what kind of prospects could be coming to a local minor league ballpark near you…

Stanford Cardinal 2010 Draft-Eligible Prospects

Stanford’s big draft score will come in 2012, but the 2010 class isn’t without talent. Kiilsgaard is a tools guy with the kind of elite athleticism that makes you think he may just figure it out. Walsh’s biggest current flaw — poor power production — is a killer for most prospects, but the positive scouting reports on his power projection puts him in prime position to vault into the early rounds this June. I’m high on Kaskow and Marshall, but not too keen on Pracher. After those five prospects, things get dicey. Thompson, Schlander, Jones, and maybe Moon could all be late round picks, but I wouldn’t put any of their individual odds better than 50/50 at this point. The next group (Giuliani, Bannister, Gaylor, Clauson, Clowe) is made up of marginal talents who will need a lot of luck if they want to be considered as even undrafted rookie ball bodies.

Posted in 2010 College Team Profiles, 2010 MLB Draft | Leave a Comment »

The Debut of Bryce Harper

Posted by Rob Ozga on February 2, 2010

Source: SI.com

Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated…

Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated. Profound, huh? That’s my one sentence summary of Bryce Harper’s debut weekend. I guess I get some of the resentment of a player with such limited experience getting so much attention this early in his career, but I don’t see how anybody could let such a trivial emotion get in the way of objective analysis. Don’t hate the player because of the over-the-top media coverage of his debut; “hate” him for something meaningful in a baseball sense, like maybe because he still doesn’t have a true defensive home, or because he still hasn’t shown the ability to play up to his level of competition, or because he’s still so darn young that it is hard to project some of his growth dependent skills like 1) Will his still growing frame keep him from catching?, 2) Will he lose athleticism and foot speed as he bulks up?, and 3) Will his throwing mechanics, already seen as shaky by some, get worse with time?

Hey, speaking of media coverage…

Las Vegas Review-Journal

“I can’t say anything about Bryce Harper,” said Zona, one of five members of the Nationals organization on hand to scout Harper and others in the Coyote Border Battle tournament.

Washington assistant general managers Bob Boone and Roy Clark and scouting director Kris Kline also attended CSN’s opener, witnessed by the largest crowd in the program’s 11-year history, about 1,300. Kline also declined comment about Harper.

Bob Boone, Roy Clark, Kris Kline, Jeff Zona, and one mystery man. It’s not quite Obama, Biden, Emanuel, and Axelrod, but it’s a pretty powerful Washington contingent all the same.

Harper capped his night by hitting a sacrifice fly to left field in the eighth inning during an attempted intentional walk. He reached out and poked the opposite-field drive for his second RBI.

Do we like this? I think I do, but I can very easily see this as evidence for the Harper haters as proof that he thinks he is bigger than the game or other such nonsense. Am I being paranoid with that “Harper haters” crack? Probably, but my crystal ball does show a growing storm of Harper backlash building up steam between now and June…

CSN raised its ticket prices this season, to $8 for a single game (from $5) and to $12 for a doubleheader (from $8). The school also raised prices for the tournament to $8 per game and $25 for a tournament pass (from $20).

Somebody at CSN has a pretty good idea of how to run a business. I’m fairly certain I’ve never paid more than $8 for a college game, but most of the games I’ve attended have either a) been in non-elite stadiums (like Boshamer pre-renovation), b) been in the northeast (in my experience, every university north of DC has been free), or c) been paid for by a student at the university (man, I miss my college discounts). Back on topic…

Las Vegas Sun

Pretty sure that this deserves to be posted without any further comment…

He knows what to expect; he had to close off practice in the fall because of interruptions caused by autograph hounds. A Harper autograph on auction site eBay.com is listed at $299. His autograph on the Sports Illustrated cover has been sold for $800.

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Ah, finally the “big” Harper news of the weekend. Never in my life have I seen such an innocent comment misconstrued so badly by so many people. How can anybody read this…

“He’s getting a lot of hype,” Huntington said. “We will scout Bryce Harper. But we’re not going to select him because somebody thinks he’s the best prospect in the history of the game and we think he’s the 10th-best.”

…and come away with the conclusion that the Pirates currently have Bryce Harper tenth or lower on their organizational big board? Pittsburgh will pick the player they believe is the best fit for the franchise, nothing more and nothing less. The insane Harper hype will have no impact on their decision to draft or not draft him. Pressure from the fans won’t matter. Pressure from the media won’t matter. Evaluations from big league front offices besides Pittsburgh’s won’t matter. The only thing that will matter is whether or not the player is the best fit for the franchise. Will that be Bryce Harper? I still doubt they’ll ever get the chance to decide.

Through four games, Harper is hitting .263/.364/.474, good for an OPS of 838. He’s 5 for 19 with 1 HR, 1 2B, 4 RBI, 2 R, and 3 BB.

Posted in 2010 MLB Draft, Bryce Harper | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Virginia Cavaliers 2010 Draft-Eligible Prospects

Posted by Rob Ozga on January 31, 2010

Just a quick reminder that the College Team Profiles are designed to be an ongoing project meant to be continously updated. They are published as incomplete works in-progress, so try not to be concerned if a guy isn’t listed. That said, I always appreciate somebody pointing out when somebody they want to see isn’t on yet, especially when they then go on to plead the case of the omitted player. The explanation for the process of the College Team Profiles was never made explicit by me here on the main page, and I apologize for any confusion. I suppose that doesn’t really make this a reminder, but rather a clarification. Sorry. From this point forward I’m going to start with 2010 prospects for each university and then fill in the 2011 and 2012 players when I can. When I finish the complete set of 2010 players, I’ll provide a handy link and some quick thoughts for anybody still interested. It may look a little something like this…

Virginia Cavaliers 2010 Draft-Eligible Prospects

I think I’m probably too high on Grovatt, too low on Cannon, and all over the place with the pitchers, especially the four draft-eligible arms that fall in behind Morey. You could probably randomly reorder those four pitchers and the outcome wouldn’t necessarily look better or worse than what I’ve currently got. Not exactly something I’d want to put on my dust jacket (“Rankings almost as good as randomized lists!”), but it’s the truth. I’m also pretty sure my guesses at what round each player will be drafted in aren’t worth any more than the digital ink they are printed in. That aspect of the reports should get better in time, however, as we begin to get a better feel of the draft’s overall talent level. Like Lastings Milledge, Parker has true star potential, but there is a sizable gap between where he is now and where he needs to be if he wants to hit his ceiling. I really like that comp, in case you haven’t noticed. Grovatt, Morey, and Wilson all speak to me in a way that is hard to explain. As much as I consider myself to be a “high upside trumps up all” kind of guy, I like the idea of filling up a system with valuable role players (often high floor prospects) almost as much. If you can save on the margins (4th outfielders, back of the rotation starters, above-average middle relief), then you can use that saved cash on either retaining your own star-caliber players or trying to obtain a missing piece free agent on the open market. Guess this is just a way of saying it’s best to diversify your drafting to maximize your return – some upside early, some high floor guys in the middle, some high upside signability concerns late, etc.

I’m a little worried that I mention ten potential players from Virginia (from Parker down to Cannon) as being draft-worthy, but the number seems to be in line with what some big schools have done in recent years. The SEC has a breakdown of players drafted listed by each school in the conference, and a quick look revealed Florida had 10 guys selected last year while Georgia had 11 players picked. I feel better now about my high number. This is a damn fine Virginia team, so it makes sense that they’d bombard the 2010 MLB Draft with high quality prospects.

Posted in 2010 MLB Draft | Leave a Comment »

2010 MLB Draft College Conference Position Breakdowns – ACC Outfielders

Posted by Rob Ozga on January 29, 2010

Pick a conference, pick a position, pick a draft year, and go. That’s basically the formula for the 2010 MLB Draft College Conference Position Breakdowns. Nothing fancy, just a quick snapshot of where the college talent is and a quicker way of disseminating 2010 draft-eligible player information to the masses. Three quick facts worth remembering as you read – 1) All rankings are preliminary and subject to change, 2) The current rankings are the top X amount of guys, but players at the back end will be added intermittenly until all players are ranked, and 3) I can’t really think of a third thing to remember, but they say you’re always supposed to list things in three, so here you go…

As always, whether you agree, disagree, or think I’m a dope who should leave this sort of stuff to the experts (thanks, Mom)…let’s hear it via email (you can use either robozga at gmail dot com or thebaseballdraftreport at gmail dot com) or in the comments section.
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1. JR OF Jarrett Parker (2010 – Virginia) is one of the best of the many 2010 toolsy lottery ticket kind of players. I haven’t been doing this draft thing for that long, so it is hard for me to compare talent levels from class to class, but it seems that this year has a high number of mid-round high upside, high flameout potential players. I also haven’t been doing this writing thing long, as you can see from the mess that was that last sentence. Anyway, as mentioned, Parker is one of the very best of the so-called (by me) “lottery ticket” group, so he isn’t necessarily included in the mid-round subsection. In fact, many see him as a candidate to go in the first round. It’s easy to see why.  His mix of tools and big-time sophomore numbers would make him a top-three round guy right now. Continued incremental improvements in his game his junior year will push his draft stock even higher. I’ll make a scary cross-race comparison here and claim Parker has a similar skill set as Lastings Milledge. He has plus power potential, an above-average arm, good speed, and the defensive chops to be a well above-average corner outfielder or a steady stopgap in center. Like Milledge, he struggles against breaking balls to the point that it’s hard not to see him as a 100+ strikeout big league hitter at this point. However, and I try my best to sandwich the bad news in between good news when I can, two big assets in Parker’s favor are his big league ready frame (6-4, 210 after packing on serious muscle), and the seemingly ever-increasing athleticism and agility (honed by practicing yoga) that should help him withstand the rigors of the professional grind.  Additionally, Parker improved his walk rate from his freshman year to his sophomore year, and continued the positive trend during his otherwise disappointing campaign on the Cape this summer. I like that.
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2. JR OF Tyler Holt (2010 – Florida State)
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3. JR OF Jeff Rowland (2010) is probably the single toolsiest player on the Georgia Tech roster. His plus speed, above-average power potential, gorgeous lefthanded swing, and above-average defense in center will comfortably get him into the top five rounds. His speed and ability to play center give him the edge over the similarly talented bat of Virginia OF Dan Grovatt.
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4. JR OF Jeff Schaus (2010 – Clemson)
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5. JR OF Dan Grovatt (2010 – Virginia) has a very patient approach at the plate, power to the gaps, average speed, and a good enough arm to play right field professionally. Sounds good, right? It should because Grovatt is a top five round caliber talent. My only worry is that his more good than great toolset makes him too similar a prospect to former Florida State standout Jack Rye. Rye was one of my all-time favorite college players and a guy I touted as a draft sleeper, but his pro numbers, especially his power indicators, haven’t exactly set the world on fire so far. The comparison is probably unfair – one player’s struggles don’t really have anything to do with another’s future – but, having seen both play, the similarity between the two seemed worth pointing out. However, the two aren’t clones of one another, either. Grovatt is the better athlete and defensive player, and he has more upside with the bat, especially in the power department. Those are all pretty important points in Grovatt’s favor. It’ll take more time and research to see where exactly Grovatt stacks up when compared to fellow 2010 college outfielders, but I have the feeling that he’ll grade out higher here than in most spots. His well-rounded game and extensive big-time college experience make him a good bet to hit the ground running professionally. I’d peg his upside as that of a solid everyday corner outfielder (defense included) with a still valuable floor as a good fourth outfielder.
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6. JR OF Chris Epps (2010 – Clemson)
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7. JR OF Kyle Parker (2010 – Clemson)
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8. JR OF Chase Burnette (2010 – Georgia Tech) can play. His sophomore .351/.447/.691 line (albeit in only 97 at bats) shows the promise he has at the plate. On top of that, he’s a very good athlete with solid speed and an accurate outfield arm. In the past Burnette’s draft stock might have been dinged by teams that considered him to be a tweener – not quite a good enough defender for center, not quite the bat of a big league slugger in a corner. However, as more and more front offices begin to properly value defense, perhaps the market for a potential league average bat with an above-average glove will see a bump on draft day.
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9. JR OF Addison Johnson (2010 – Clemson)
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10. SR OF Wilson Boyd (2010 – Clemson)
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11. JR OF Steven Brooks (2010 – Wake Forest)
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12. SR OF Gabriel Saade (2010 – Duke) is a difficult player to figure out. He went into his junior year as a legitimate pro prospect, a versatile defender capable of playing anywhere up the middle (2B, SS, CF) coming off of two solid years playing every day in the ACC (.269/.354/.456 as a freshman, .286/.376/.483 as a sophomore). His junior year didn’t quite go according to plan, unless Saade’s plan was to hit .237/.339/.333. If that was the case, then his plan really couldn’t have gone any better. The big dip in numbers is concerning, especially the total disappearance of power, but there are some positives to glean from his 2009 performance. His K/BB ratio has dipped each season (2.26 to 1.96 to 1.33) and his stolen base numbers have remained consistently stellar (46/54 collegiately, including his stint in the Valley League). If he can bounce back to his pre-junior levels of production, something many scouts think he is capable of doing if he stops being so darn pull-happy, then he has a shot at being an interesting senior sign (round 15-25, maybe) for a team believing in his future as a steady fielding big league utility player.
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13. SR OF/C Steve Domecus (2010 – Virginia Tech)
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14. JR OF Ben Bunting (2010 – North Carolina) brings two plus tools to the table – plus speed and plus defense. I’m a pretty big Tyler Holt fan, so please consider the following statement a compliment: Bunting is the homeless man’s version of Holt. Of course, while Holt has the upside of a big league starter, Bunting’s ceiling is probably that of a speedy fifth outfielder.
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15. SR OF Jay Dantzler (2010 – Georgia Tech) looks like a pretty solid senior sign candidate to me. In many ways he is an older version of fellow Georgia Tech outfielder Chase Burnette. Both players are good athletes, have decent arms, and have shown enough promise with the bat to at least get him a few looks here and there from scouts. His junior year numbers (.281/.397/.579) show a player with tons of patience and emerging power. But if he really is an older version of Burnette, then the elephant of the room becomes bigger, louder, and, yes, even brighter. It’s a big loud glowing elephant, and that elephant is age. Dantzler will be 23 years old by draft day. Even still, a big senior year could get him drafted in the last half of the draft.
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16. SR OF Robbie Anston (2010 – Boston College)

Posted in 2010 MLB Draft, 2010 Outfielders | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

College Team Profiles: Wichita State Shockers

Posted by Rob Ozga on January 28, 2010

One of the most popular (fine, the only) question I’ve been emailed since starting this site up goes a little something like this: I’m going to see ____ University/College/State play this weekend and I was wondering if there was anybody with a professional future that would be worth watching. The College Team Profiles are designed to preemptively answer any and all questions about the prospects from a particular college team…or maybe just open up a whole new debate full of new, even more confusing questions. We’ll see. The next three draft classes for one particular school are featured, with the players ranked in order (from greatest to least greatest) within each class.

As always, whether you agree, disagree, or think I’m a dope who should leave this sort of stuff to the experts (thanks, Mom)…let’s hear it via email (you can use either robozga at gmail dot com or thebaseballdraftreport at gmail dot com) or in the comments section.


2010

FR 3B/1B Johnny Coy (2010) has taken a long, strange trip to get to this point, but the eventual payoff could very well make it all worth it. Coy’s story began as a two-sport high school star, regarded by many as a better basketball prospect than baseball. After getting drafted by the Phillies in the 7th round, protracted and sometimes testy (allegedly) negotiations between player and team led to the two sides opting to go their separate ways. Coy’s older brother was reportedly heavily involved with negotiations, strongly pushing his bro to either a) get every last penny from the Phillies as possible (making him a greedy villain to many) or b) go to school and get a quality education. Coy wound up enrolling at Arizona State, but never made it to baseball season. He left the Sun Devils to move closer to home after his father suffered a stroke in late 2008. That led him to Wichita State. As a Shocker, Coy can now focus on honing his considerable baseball skills. All of his raw tools grade out as average or better – 55 speed, 60 arm, 65-70 raw power, average hit tool, and, perhaps most controversially, above-average upside with the glove at third. I remember not believing for a second that he’d ever stick at third after seeing video of him in high school, but all of the noise regarding his defensive progress coming out of Wichita has been positive. I’m a big believer in the big (6-8, 210 pound) righthanded freshman. As mentioned, Coy was a 7th round pick by the Phillies back in 2008. A good spring will get him three or four rounds higher than that, I think. All the typical signability concerns apply (Coy has three more seasons of eligibility left after this one), but the timing seems right for Coy to jump to pro ball, especially if his raw tools come together as quick as I believe.

SO RHP Jordan Cooper (2011) is coming off a fantastic freshman season and should once again thrive as Wichita State’s Saturday starter. His hard work on campus has helped him further develop his pro body and clean up his loose, easy, and repeatable throwing mechanics. He has a low-90s fastball, decent slider, an emerging changeup, and a curve still in its infancy. There isn’t a standout pitch in his arsenal just yet, but the ability to throw four (though closer to three and a half) pitches for strikes make him appealing as a potential back of the rotation starter. Another big year in 2010 ought to get him consideration as a top-five round pick, but, again, I’m not sure his limited upside will quite warrant such a lofty draft pick.

JR 1B Preston Springer (2010) is a big-time breakout candidate heading into 2010. In a year bereft of interesting college bats, Springer is a certifiable sleeper, a junior college transfer with a pro frame, above-average lefthanded power, and impressive plate discipline. He’ll play first base this spring for the Shockers, but he has defensive experience all over the diamond.  If his defense is even passable at third (something scouts may need to find out through pre-game infield practice, talking to former coaches, referencing old reports, or good old fashioned guesswork), then we’ve got ourselves a prospect worth getting excited about. I know his arm strength will play at the position, but his hands, range, and footwork are all question marks at this point. I’m out on an island putting Springer this high up on the list, but I believe in his bat.

SR OF Ryan Jones (2010) heads into the 2010 season with much to prove after a disappointing junior season knocked him all the way down to the 39th round of the 2009 MLB Draft. Jones’s season wasn’t terrible by any stretch, but it is fair to point out that he didn’t make the substantial gains from sophomore to junior year that many had hoped to see. He’s back for his senior year and primed for a season that could shoot him into the first fifteen rounds of the draft. Jones is an outstanding corner outfielder (typically playing right), athletic enough to get by when needed in center. He fits the mold as one of those smartly aggressive hitters, a player happy to spit on pitches he knows he can’t handle while not being bashful with his cuts on balls in his wheelhouse. This approach got him in trouble last year as he began to rapidly expand his idea of what pitch types and locations he could handle, but coaches close to him believe they have themselves a more patient, more mature, and, hopefully, more dangerous hitter now that he has another year of at bats under his belt. I like him as yet another tweener, a player who maybe shouldn’t play center regularly but who also doesn’t have the power bat needed to play a corner every day; tweeners have value when used properly, but the limited big league ceiling of guys with fourth outfielder upside tends to give many scouting staffs’ pause. Betting on college seniors to go early in the draft and then eventually reach the big leagues isn’t the smartest thing to do, but Jones has enough untapped upside to at least consider him as one of the select few within the group who has a shot to do both.

SR RHP Cobey Guy (2010) has some serious sleeper potential. His low-90s fastball and above-average slider give him the two strong pitch base that any good reliever needs. Guy’s swing-and-miss stuff has worked at every level (starting at Arkansas Fort Smith, relieving in limited innings last year at Wichita State), striking out 196 batters in just 154 innings pitched. If he can quickly lay claim to a key spot in the Wichita pen, then the exposure could help scouts take notice of his raw stuff and get him picked late this June.

JR RHP/OF Mitch Caster (2010) is a two-way prospect coming off a season where he did very little of note (.231/.308/.265 in 117 at bats, only 5.1 innings pitched) either way, but his scouting reports have remained positive all the same. He is a far better prospect as a pitcher than as a hitter due in large part to a fastball peaking at 92 MPH and a slider that flashes plus when on. He’s also a fine athlete capable of consistently repeating his loose and easy delivery. Like so many other prospects profiled thus far, Caster has the makings of two above-average or better pitches and thus has to be taken at least somewhat seriously as a potential middle relief piece going forward. Unlike a lot of those prospects, however, Caster gets a little extra credit for the potential for untapped pitching ability because of his time spent moonlighting in the outfield for the Shockers.

JR RHP Tim Kelley (2010), the ace of the Shockers staff, typically sits in the high-80s with an average changeup. He has a well earned reputation as a strike thrower with plus command.  Kelley is a bit of enigma, a guy with the size scouts want (6-6, 215), but not the velocity. He looks like he should throw harder, but so far the guns haven’t exactly been lit up when he takes the bump. That’s not to say he still can’t be a pro prospect, but it does put a pretty tight cap on his upside. Armed with a below-average velocity fastball and no real plus breaking ball, Kelley might have to hope a professional conversion to middle relief will unlock enough of a bump in his stuff to keep food on his table. Check out the comparison between Kelley and Saturday starter Jordan Cooper’s 2009 numbers. They are some bizarrely close statistics:

Player                 ERA   W-L   APP  GS  CG SHO/CBO SV    IP   H   R  ER  BB  SO  2B  3B  HR   AB B/Avg   WP HBP  BK  SFA SHA

11 Cooper, Jordan...  2.78   8-6    15  13   3   0/3    0  97.0  87  35  30  20  91   9   1   7  351  .248    6  15   0    2  10
36 Kelley, Tim......  2.86   5-4    14  14   3   1/0    0  94.1  83  40  30  22 102  20   0   8  356  .233   11  10   0    3   5

If we arbitrarily lump WPs and HBPs together as something called “uncontrollable pitches,” they are even more similar. Weird. Keep in mind Kelley is a year ahead of Cooper from an experience standpoint. Also keep in mind that Kelley redshirted his first season as a Shocker, so he actually is two calendar years older than Cooper.

SO RHP Remington Johnson (2010) was arguably the Shockers most dominant reliever last year, striking out 33 batters in only 21.1 innings pitched. He enters 2010 as a prime candidate to get saves out of the Wichita State bullpen. He is draft-eligible after redshirting in 2008, but probably won’t get a serious look from scouts until 2011 or 2012 due to his lack of overwhelming size (6-0, 198), stuff, and a non-stuffy old white guy first name.

SR 1B/RHP Clint McKeever (2010) has one of the best stories in all of college baseball, going from a walk-on cut from his dream school (Oklahoma State), to transferring to Wichita State, to then hitting an extra inning grand slam to beat – who else? – the OK State Cowboys. Seriously, how cool is that? McKeever’s bat makes him a darn fine college ballplayer, but it’ll probably his arm that gets him a shot in pro ball. With a fastball that touches the low-90s and a pretty good slider, McKeever has an outside shot to make it as a reliever down the line. As a huge fan of former big league two-way guy Brooks Kieschnick, I’d like nothing more than to see a player with legitimate talent both ways get a chance professionally. McKeever may not have the ability to do it — his fastball velocity has remained more or less stagnant since high school and his hitting, while impressive for a college player, won’t play as a big league starting position player – but it’ll happen somewhere, someday.

SO RHP Grant Muncrief (2010) will reportedly be ready for the start of the season after having Tommy John surgery this past April. The ten month recovery is one of the fastest that I can remember, so please excuse me if I’m not entirely sold on the idea that he’ll be game-ready from the get-go. The draft-eligible sophomore has generated some good buzz from the coaching staff, but it’s really hard to get a read on his long-term potential due to the injury. I’d guess he is a player we’ll be talking about again next year after an up-and-down sophomore year convinces him to stick around Wichita for at least another season.

JR RHP Justin Kemp (2010) made one of the best catches of the…wait, wrong sport…and wrong Justin Kemp. Sorry. The baseball playing Kemp isn’t likely to achieve the same level of athletic success as his namesake. The lightly recruited righthander is coming off a year of low-leverage relief innings for the Shockers, striking out 16 batters in 25.2 innings pitched.

SR RHP Tyler Fleming (2010) will be 24 years old by the time of the draft. What’s with Wichita State and all of these old guys? I know a lot are due to medical redshirts, but some of the ages on this club make it seem like a AAA roster. Fleming shouldn’t be a prospect, but he was drafted by the Rangers twice (20th round in 2006, 39th round in 2007) out of junior college, so you never know. If totally recovered from shoulder surgery, you’ll be able to find him pitching out of the back of the Shockers bullpen and moonlighting as the team’s backup infielder in 2010.

SR OF Travis Bennett (2010) comes to Wichita State from Northern Iowa (RIP) with the reputation of a player with a solid-average hit tool and an iron glove. He’s currently angling for some time in the outfield for the Shockers, but I’ve got a hunch he’ll settle in as the team’s primary DH once the season gets rolling. Without any real positional value, he’s not a pro prospect.

SR 2B Will Baez (2010) has a father named Wilson and a sister named Wilcania. Will’s full first name is Wilsisky. How about that? His first year playing major college ball went well enough for the Shockers (.275/.425/.368), but it is hard to project a player with only 12 extra base hits in 182 at bats as a pro prospect, especially for a middle infielder coming off a year of shaky defense at second base.  I do appreciate the additional 52 times on base (42 BBs, 10 HBPs) and the guts it takes a converted catcher to give it a go at second, but without any power he won’t get drafted.

SR LHP Logan Hoch (2010) currently is on the mend after shoulder surgery sidelined him in 2009. He’s a good college lefthanded reliever (52 K’s in 45.1 IP during his last healthy year, 2008) with limited upside professionally. As a redshirt senior he’ll be 23 years old by draft day. Old college lefty relievers have to be outstanding to get a look professionally, something Hoch is not.

SO OF Kevin Hall (2010) writes a weekly column about life as a college ballplayer that is probably worth checking out on a regular basis. I mean, sure, he’s no Michael Schwimer, but Hall’s blog is off to a pretty solid start. I like his future as a writer a little more than as a prospect, despite the fact that Hall has a lot of the skills needed to be a solid college leadoff hitter; in fact, he hits a lot of the right notes (good speed and good range in center) in that respect. Unfortunately, there are centerfields with leadoff hitter profiles with far better tools out there.

SR OF Bret Bascue (2010) turned 23 this past December. He hasn’t shown much in his college career – little to no power, poor plate discipline, and average at best outfield defense. He’ll battle for time in Wichita State’s crowded outfield this spring, but he isn’t a pro prospect.

SR C Cody Lassley (2010) doesn’t have what it takes to be considered a pro prospect. To his credit, he has made significant improvements since signing with Wichita State, enough so to now be able to call himself a decent college catcher. Plus, he has somebody writing about him on the internet. That’s kind of cool, right?

JR UT Ryan Engrav (2010) should help Wichita State with his ability to play multiple positions, but his bat isn’t strong enough to make him a pro prospect. He should settle in as the Shockers’ primary rightfielder to start the season.

SR INF Taylor Gilmore (2010) will be the Shockers four-corners (1B/3B/LF/RF) utility guy in 2010. He doesn’t have a pro future.

2011

SO SS Tyler Grimes (2011) has spent the offseason working on a pretty nifty trick. He’s learning how to switch hit. That’s a far more impressive feat that whatever the heck I did between my freshman and sophomore years of college. That reminds me of a funny story…[story edited in order to maintain appearance that, yes, this is a family friendly website]…and that was the summer we learned a valuable lesson about Jon Favreau, organic peaches, nasty sunburns, and the power of love. Anyway, Grimes is coming off a darn fine freshman campaign. College numbers don’t tell the whole story, but a quick comparison between the freshman year numbers of the Wichita State shortstop and the consensus top college shortstops of 2009 and 2010 is interesting. Last season Grimes hit .294/.399/.467. In his freshman year, Grant Green, the top college shortstop off the board in 2009, hit .316/.388/.491. In Christian Colon’s first season, he hit .329/.406/.444. This ignores park factors, competition, and a slew of other important things to consider, but the raw rate stats are all pretty similar. Again, college numbers don’t tell the whole story. Grimes’s tools don’t match up with either Green’s or Colon’s, but he does appear to be a legitimate pro prospect in his own right. Grimes’s plus defense (good hands, great range, plus arm) will get him looks regardless of his development with the bat.

2012

FR 3B Nate Goro (2012) has a quick bat, a little bit of pop (he’s no power hitter, but he did break Ryan Howard’s Missouri state high school homerun record), and exciting instinctual actions in the field. He received rave reviews on his defense throughout the fall, pulling himself into a tight battle with Johnny Coy for the starting job at the hot corner. It’s hard to project him for more than 10-15 homerun upside as a professional, but a lot of that will depend on how he fills out in school. If the bat catches up to the glove, he is a top five round player by 2012. If he’s seen as more of a defensive whiz than a complete starting caliber player, downgrade him another five rounds or so. Either way, he has three seasons to improve. I like his chances.

FR 2B Walker Davidson (2012) injured his knee in the fall, so the amount of playing time he’ll get this spring is up in the air. He has received praise from the coaching staff for his defense, but the bat currently lags behind. He’s currently the leading candidate to replace Will Baez as the Shockers starting second baseman in 2011.

Posted in 2010 College Team Profiles, 2010 MLB Draft | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

College Team Profiles: Virginia Cavaliers

Posted by Rob Ozga on January 26, 2010

One of the most popular (fine, the only) question I’ve been emailed since starting this site up goes a little something like this: I’m going to see ____ University/College/State play this weekend and I was wondering if there was anybody with a professional future that would be worth watching. The College Team Profiles are designed to preemptively answer any and all questions about the prospects from a particular college team…or maybe just open up a whole new debate full of new, even more confusing questions. We’ll see. The next three draft classes for one particular school are featured, with the players ranked in order (from greatest to least greatest) within each class. As always, whether you agree, disagree, or think I’m a dope who should leave this sort of stuff to the experts (thanks, Mom)…let’s hear it via email (you can use either robozga at gmail dot com or thebaseballdraftreport at gmail dot com) or in the comments section.

2010

JR OF Jarrett Parker (2010) is one of the best of the many 2010 toolsy lottery ticket kind of players. I haven’t been doing this draft thing for that long, so it is hard for me to compare talent levels from class to class, but it seems that this year has a high number of mid-round high upside, high flameout potential players. I also haven’t been doing this writing thing long, as you can see from the mess that was that last sentence. Anyway, as mentioned, Parker is one of the very best of the so-called (by me) “lottery ticket” group, so he isn’t necessarily included in the mid-round subsection. In fact, many see him as a candidate to go in the first round. It’s easy to see why.  His mix of tools and big-time sophomore numbers would make him a top-three round guy right now. Continued incremental improvements in his game his junior year will push his draft stock even higher. I’ll make a scary cross-race comparison here and claim Parker has a similar skill set as Lastings Milledge. He has plus power potential, an above-average arm, good speed, and the defensive chops to be a well above-average corner outfielder or a steady stopgap in center. Like Milledge, he struggles against breaking balls to the point that it’s hard not to see him as a 100+ strikeout big league hitter at this point. However, and I try my best to sandwich the bad news in between good news when I can, two big assets in Parker’s favor are his big league ready frame (6-4, 210 after packing on serious muscle), and the seemingly ever-increasing athleticism and agility (honed by practicing yoga) that should help him withstand the rigors of the professional grind.  Additionally, Parker improved his walk rate from his freshman year to his sophomore year, and continued the positive trend during his otherwise disappointing campaign on the Cape this summer. I like that.

JR OF Dan Grovatt (2010) has a very patient approach at the plate, power to the gaps, average speed, and a good enough arm to play right field professionally. Sounds good, right? It should because Grovatt is a top five round caliber talent. My only worry is that his more good than great toolset makes him too similar a prospect to former Florida State standout Jack Rye. Rye was one of my all-time favorite college players and a guy I touted as a draft sleeper, but his pro numbers, especially his power indicators, haven’t exactly set the world on fire so far. The comparison is probably unfair – one player’s struggles don’t really have anything to do with another’s future – but, having seen both play, the similarity between the two seemed worth pointing out. However, the two aren’t clones of one another, either. Grovatt is the better athlete and defensive player, and he has more upside with the bat, especially in the power department. Those are all pretty important points in Grovatt’s favor. It’ll take more time and research to see where exactly Grovatt stacks up when compared to fellow 2010 college outfielders, but I have the feeling that he’ll grade out higher here than in most spots. His well-rounded game and extensive big-time college experience make him a good bet to hit the ground running professionally. I’d peg his upside as that of a solid everyday corner outfielder (defense included) with a still valuable floor as a good fourth outfielder.

JR RHP Robert Morey (2010) will, if nothing else, always have a big win over Stephen Strasburg in the opener of the 2009 Irvine Regional. Fortunately for him, however, he won’t have to limit himself to that one particular game when someday regaling his grandkids about his playing days. A low-90s fastball, above-average slider, and an emerging straight changeup, plus his status as the Saturday starter for a championship caliber college team, should get him into the top ten rounds this June as a future back of the rotation starter.

JR RHP Tyler Wilson (2010) will probably be the Cavalier most directly impacted by Cody Winiarski’s arrival on campus. The opportunity to slide into the vacant weekend starting spot would have done wonders for Wilson’s 2010 draft stock. Even without the starting gig, he’ll get noticed as Virginia’s primary reliever, the bullpen ace relied upon to pitch multiple innings at a time whenever called upon. His plus command, good athleticism, and easy, repeatable arm action help him thrive in the role. Additionally, Wilson’s solid three-pitch mix (fastball sitting 90-92 and topping out at 94, good sinking high-70s change, average slider) gives credence to the idea he has value either in the bullpen or as a starter. I like him a lot, and believe he’ll be a top-ten round guy in June.

JR RHP Kevin Arico (2010) had himself a breakout season as Virginia’s closer in 2009. His bread and butter is a plus low-80s slider that he has no problem throwing over and over and over again. The first time I saw Arico pitch I walked away pretty impressed with myself for finally finding a player that I could compare to Kiko Calero. After seeing him throw a few more times since then, I think I’m now ready to upgrade the comp a smidge to now qualify Arico for a Chad Qualls type of ceiling. There is little to no chance his final draft standing rivals Qualls’s (you’d think last names ending with the letter s would annoy me, but, brother let me tell you, nothing is worse than a name ending in z), but he could still find himself as a top 12-15 round pick who could be a quick mover for the team that takes the plunge. There should be some concern about a player so reliant on one specific skill, but Arico’s results against high level competition should help assuage most clubs’ worry.

JR INF/OF Phil Gosselin (2010) heads into the 2010 season as the man without a position. The 2009 First-Team All-ACC second baseman has been working out in leftfield almost exclusively this fall, but has also apparently been told to be ready to fill in just about anywhere (3B, 2B, maybe SS, in that order) as needed this spring. It’s rare that a college supersub would be a legit draft prospect, but Gosselin is just that. He is a slightly below-average infielder with an average arm (2B being his most likely pro landing spot if a team prefers him in the infield), who will almost certainly be first tried in the outfield as a pro. I’m not sure if that is the best way to maximize Gosselin’s pro value. He doesn’t have the glove/range for center, and doesn’t have the bat for a corner. If he isn’t a starting caliber outfielder, why not at least give him a shot in the infield? If he can bump his defense up to at least average in the infield, then you’ve got yourself a player who can help you stretch the limits of your 25-man roster, especially in the NL.

JR C/1B/OF Kenny Swab (2010) and his Cavalier teammate John Hicks (2011) – separated at birth? Swab figures to have the inside track on the primary backup catching job, but should also see time at first base, right field (to take advantage of his plus arm), and designated hitter. He’s got a live bat with above-average power potential, but it’ll take some serious lineup juggling from Brian O’Connor to get him the at bats he’ll need to boost his draft stock. As is, Swab is a potential 10-20th round player based on upside alone.

SR LHP Neal Davis (2010) goes into his senior season as Virginia’s top lefthanded relief pitcher, a player able to skillfully mix and match fastballs, sliders, and changeups to get hitters out. His most recent season was arguably his least successful – certainly his least dominating – so he heads into 2010 with plenty to prove. His big league frame (6-6, 210) and past success in a highly competitive conference (he struck out nearly a batter an inning [39 in 40] while only allowing 7 earned runs in 40 relief innings [1.58 ERA] in 2008) combined with intriguing stuff (sits in the high-80s to low-90s with the fastball and has an above-average mid-70s slider) make him another second half of the draft option for a team looking for a warm A-ball body on the cheap. I know I do this a lot, but I’d be remiss to write this much about Davis without mentioning the possibility that his stuff and frame would actually play well as a starting pitcher professionally.

JR RHP Cody Winiarski (2010) comes to Virginia via noted talent factory Madison Area Technical College. After doing a little bit of homework on him, I’ve found that he is a player with a whole lot of adamant supporters. Someone who saw him pitch on multiple occasions while at MATC raved about his potential plus changeup. Another admitted that while he had never actually seen Winiarski throw himself, he had heard very positive things from others about his command and general pitchability. Winiarski doesn’t have as much room for error as some pitchers with bigger fastballs, but the praise he has gotten from those who have seen him firsthand makes me a believer in his pro prospects. Assuming he holds down the last weekend starting job as expected, watch out for Winiarksi as a potential top-15 round arm this June.

SR INF Tyler Cannon (2010) reminds me of a better version of Missouri’s Greg Folgia, a player picked a round higher in 2009. Cannon is solid in all phases of the game, but lacks fluidity on defense at any position. Between his lack of a true defensive home and his steady, but unspectacular bat, Cannon has many believing his professional role will be that of a super-sub capable of playing literally every position on the diamond, including catcher. His college counting stats (through his first two seasons) match up with Eric Bruntlett’s in almost an eerie way, but the comparison falls apart when you look at each player’s rate stats. Anyway, I’d say that the Bruntlett comp may actually be a tad optimistic at this point. Cannon’s collegiate track record isn’t quite as strong as Bruntlett’s (though another big season like Cannon had last year would close the gap) and he lacks Bruntlett’s tremendous Civil War reenactor (that may be the single ugliest looking word in the English language) style beard, but I’d bet on enough marginal improvements as he progresses into his mid-20s to see him getting a chance as a AAAA utility guy good enough to position himself as a potential callup when injuries to the more talented players occur. His big junior year gives him something to build on heading into 2010, and the continued increase of talented infielders to the Cavalier program ought to give him more of an opportunity to show off the defensive versatility that will be his best shot at someday playing big league baseball.

SR C Franco Valdes (2010) plays exceptional defense behind the plate. He’s adept at blocking balls in the dirt, athletic enough to get out of his crouch to pounce on anything in front of him, and has a strong enough arm to keep potential base stealers honest. He also has one heck of a reputation when it comes to handling a pitching staff. However, and this is a biggie, his offense (career OBP = .301) leaves much to be desired. However, and this is may or may not be a biggie depending on how you feel about this sort of thing, he does have the benefit of draft pedigree (15th round pick of Detroit back in 2006) on his side. I never know how much stock to put into previous draft standing, especially when we’re talking about a college junior or senior who was drafted in a late round three or four years prior. So much can change in the span of three or four seasons, you know? Valdes certainly isn’t a 15th round caliber player anymore, mainly due to the stalled development of his offensive game, but the fact he was previously drafted makes me hesitant to claim he has no shot at all this time around. At best, he’s worth nothing more than a late late late round flier at this point.

JR OF John Barr (2010) is as nondescript a prospect as you’ll find. It’s nothing personal – in fact, I saw Barr play in high school, and I tend to form weird (non-creepy!) attachments to players I’ve seen early on – but nothing about his game stands out as being an average or better big league tool. His numbers dipped from his freshman year to his sophomore season, but he deserves the benefit of the doubt as he was recovering from shoulder surgery for much of 2009.

INF JR Corey Hunt (2010) has to be a big believer in the idea that timing is everything, if for not other reason than to help him ease his troubled head at night. In a different era of Virginia baseball it’s possible Hunt could have come in, gotten playing time early, established himself as a useful defense-first middle infielder with above-average on-base skills, and pushed his draft stock up enough by his senior season to be a worthwhile 20ish round or so pick. Instead, he has been behind some pretty good veteran infielders to start off his Cavalier career and he’ll be behind some really impressive youngsters to end his career. Without regular playing time he’ll be a very difficult player for scouts to assess come June. The lack of track record and standout tools make him a non-prospect at this point.

JR INF/OF Tyler Biddix (2010) has one of the most underrated names in all of college baseball. K’Nex, Lego, Megatendo, Fischertechnik, Biddix, Uberstix, Blockos…which ones are real building block toys and which ones are fake? Pretty sure the end table I bought from Ikea a few months ago was a Biddix. Damn, the Ikea joke was a better one than the K’Nex/Uberstix one, wasn’t it? Wish I would have thought of it first. Anyway, I have no doubt that the real Biddix (the person) is a better prospect than the flimsy table, but not by enough to make him a draftable prospect.

2011

SO INF/C Keith Werman (2011) did his best Pat Venditte impression while in high school, pitching a seven-inning complete game both lefthanded (3.1 innings) and righthanded (3.2 innings). That fun fact from the Virginia baseball website may have absolutely no bearing on Werman’s prospect stock, but it’s undeniably cool. What is relevant about his prospect stock is the fact he is a plus defender at second base who also has experience at shortstop and catcher dating back to his prep career. He can also handle the bat (.400/.481/.457 line in 70 at bats) enough to keep himself in the mix for a starting spot in 2010. Werman’s draft upside may be limited by his size (5-7, 150 – not saying judging him on size is fair, but it’s the reality), but the universal praise he earned last year as a sparkplug second leadoff hitter (the nice way of saying 9-hole hitter) for Virginia down the stretch should continue to get him noticed on the college level. The gap between Werman and Stephen Bruno is more perception than reality.

2012

FR SS Reed Gragnani (2012) is yet another talented young prospect expected to see significant time in a loaded Virginia infield. His game right now revolves largely around his well above-average speed, excellent athleticism, and impressive range up the middle, but he is no slouch with the bat either. Early comps include Brian Roberts (if he develops as is) and Ryan Zimmerman (if he bulks up and gains power). Gragnani’s brother, Robbie, grew four inches during his college tenure at Virginia Commonwealth, so that Ryan Zimmerman developmental path isn’t totally out of the question. That’s not to say that the only thing standing in the way between Gragnani and future big league All-Star status is a couple of inches and some muscle, but he’s a good player with high round talent all the same.

FR SS Stephen Bruno (2012) was one of the rarest of the rare coming out of high school – a prep player actually expected to stay at shortstop as a pro. We always hear about how pretty much every worthwhile big leaguer was the star shortstop/pitcher of his high school team, but it never registered how often these players were forced to move off the position after signing that first pro deal. I mean, Frank Thomas was a shortstop in high school* because, let’s be honest, that’s just where you put the best athlete at that level. I remember watching Billy Rowell play shortstop in high school. He positioned himself about 3 steps out on the outfield grass, basically admitting to all in attendance he had no range and instead relying exclusively on his rocket arm to gun people down at first. Rowell wasn’t a pro prospect as a shortstop, but he played shortstop on his high school team because, quite simply, if he didn’t, then who would? Bruno was a top ten round talent in 2009 who fell to the Yankees in the 26th round due to a very strong commitment to Virginia. He’ll stick at shortstop throughout his career due to his plus range, slightly above-average speed, and Speedy Gonzalez quick hands. He has flashed present power, launching a couple of 450 bombs his senior year of school, but lacks the overall strength to do it on a consistent basis. That last point may not seem like a huge deal for a middle infield prospect, but it does speak to the general concerns about Bruno’s future. Some players are projects based on the development of their tools, an area that Bruno grades out fairly well across the board (in addition to the aforementioned defensive skills, he has a 55 arm), but other players are projects based on their physical development. That’s where Bruno is at right now. He has worked his tail off to improve in each of the five tools (most notably speed and arm strength), but it’ll be the way is body fills out (keeping in mind he is 5-9, 165) that will make him into either a first round caliber guy or not.

***Frank Thomas may or may not have been a shortstop in high school. I actually have no idea. I just thought he was a good example for the point I was trying to make. Now I realize that making stuff up doesn’t help my argument at all, but it’s my site and I get to be as bad a writer and as big a liar as I want to be. Maybe Jim Thome would have been a better example; I bet he played shortstop in high school…

UPDATE: Found something! Go here, or just trust this excerpt: “In baseball, he was a 6-2, 175-pound shortstop. The Cincinnati Reds were interested but never drafted him. So Thome enrolled at Illinois Central College, where he played baseball and basketball. The Indians drafted him in the 13th round in 1989, one of the smartest selections they ever made.”

FR SS Chris Taylor (2012) might have hit himself into regular playing time after mashing the ball throughout the fall. One rumored starting infield for Virginia has Steven Proscia at first, Keith Werman at second, Tyler Cannon sliding back over to third, and Taylor getting regular time at short. Taylor has plus raw power and intriguing defensive tools, but comes to school with a bit less fanfare as fellow freshman infielders Gragnani and Bruno.

Posted in 2010 College Team Profiles, 2010 MLB Draft | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

College Team Profiles: Stanford Cardinal

Posted by Rob Ozga on January 23, 2010

One of the most popular (fine, the only) question I’ve been emailed since starting this site up goes a little something like this: I’m going to see ____ University/College/State play this weekend and I was wondering if there was anybody with a professional future that would be worth watching. The College Team Profiles are designed to preemptively answer any and all questions about the prospects from a particular college team…or maybe just open up a whole new debate full of new, even more confusing questions. We’ll see. The next three draft classes for one particular school are featured, with the players ranked in order (from greatest to least greatest) within each class.

As always, whether you agree, disagree, or think I’m a dope who should leave this sort of stuff to the experts (thanks, Mom)…let’s hear it via email (you can use either robozga at gmail dot com or thebaseballdraftreport at gmail dot com) or in the comments section.


2010

JR OF Kellen Kiilsgaard (2010) is another high upside, high risk collegiate outfielder that could put himself in position to be a top-three round pick with a big junior season. He’s a plus athlete with plus raw power and plus speed. Plus (sorry, I couldn’t resist), he’s got the tools to be an above-average defensive outfielder, although his slingshot throwing motion may limit him to leftfield professionally. The tools haven’t manifested themselves in the same way they have in other players in his class (for all his speed and athleticism he only swiped one bag last season), but Kiilsgaard, a football player compared to Jake Locker coming out of high school, deserves the benefit of the doubt due to his limited experience on the diamond. His future draft position will most likely be somewhere between round five and ten, but, as mentioned, the talent level is high enough to push him up to the end of round three.

JR 2B Colin Walsh (2010) reminds me a little bit of present day Luis Castillo, also known as Luis Castillo after losing his wheels. He’s got a pretty swing that has scouts projecting more power in his future than he has shown thus far.  Hopefully that little bit of pop begins to show up in 2010 because another year of slugging .376 won’t cut it. He has an outstanding glove at second that may actually be good enough to work at shortstop, giving hope that he can be a utility infielder in the mold of Marco Scutaro someday. If even just a little bit more power shows up this year, he could find himself off the board within the first 7 or 8 rounds this June.

JR 1B Jonathan Kaskow (2010) is exactly the kind of player that makes the College Team Profiles worthwhile. If you were to just scan the Stanford roster, check out the statistics from the past few years, and maybe take a glance at one of the giants of the industry’s (namely BA or PG) top 100/200/300 list of draft-eligible players, you’d totally miss out on a prospect like Jonathan Kaskow. I’m not knocking those methods of learning about prospects, by the way; for years that was almost exactly what I would do before watching a college/high school game, and, quite honestly, those are still my go-to moves in a pinch today. The exclusion of Kaskow from any top prospect list at this point is warranted, but if prospecting is all about being ahead of the curve, then I’m happy to help get Kaskow’s name out there now before he blows up in his junior season at Stanford. Plus raw power from both sides of the plate, smooth defense at first, big league ready size (6-4, 225), and a mature approach to hitting all help make Kaskow a sleeper to rise way up the draft charts this spring. In a down year for college hitting, a big bat like this can make up a lot of ground in a short amount of time.

JR RHP Michael Marshall (2010) is a big (6-3, 240) rubber armed Texan highly skilled in both throwing low-90s fastballs by hitters and turning around on low-90s fastballs at the plate.  He also throws a quality breaking ball and a decent change, pitches good enough to make some wonder if he could someday start. Truthfully, he had me at big rubber armed Texan. Marshall might be one of those “who?” type of players that wind up having more success working consistent innings with professional coaching than they ever could have at the college level.

JR RHP Alex Pracher (2010) sits in the high-80s with a fastball that will touch the low-90s when he needs it. He rounds out his arsenal with two solid secondary offerings, a slider and a changeup, plus a curve that probably should be scrapped. Projection is the big word when it comes to Pracher, as scouts see his 6-3, 175 pound frame and envision a day when the fastball sits in the low-90s deep into games. I’m not sold on that day ever coming, and actually think Pracher works best in relief, three solid pitches be damned. I’m actively trying to be more pessimistic in this scouting blurbs (not everybody is a top ten round pick, after all), and Pracher gives me the opportunity to break from convention and wonder why a particular player is as highly regarded by the consensus as he is. I normally see three average or better pitches and think, “well, at worse he has the upside as a big league starter…and that’s pretty darn good,” but I can’t get on board the Pracher bandwagon for some reason.

SR RHP Kyle Thompson (2010) is a deep, deep, deep sleeper, not unlike a hungover hibernating bear. How did the bear get so drunk in the first place? I’ll never tell. College relievers with 12.1 innings pitched through three healthy seasons don’t typically warrant more than a quick dismissal of their pro prospects, but any player who learned under the watchful eye of Mark Gubicza is alright by me. I know Thompson has been used only out of the bullpen for the Cardinal, but his stuff (low-90s fastball, above-average change, and usable breaking ball) would play better as a starter. Late round senior signs don’t normally have the upside of a middle reliever, let alone a fifth starter, but that’s what I see in Thompson. It’ll take a good pitching coach to help him unlock the potential of his stuff, but there is enough already there to make him a worthy late round (40+) pickup.

JR SS Jake Schlander (2010) can really pick it at shortstop, but his inability to make consistent contact, hit for power, and get on base regularly put a damper on his pro prospects. He’s started since day one at Stanford, putting up lines of .232/.307/.256 and .232/.285/.324 his first two seasons. Those are stunningly bad numbers. However, as mentioned, Schlander can really pick it at shortstop. I mean, he can really pick it. Plus range, flawless hands, strong arm, he has it all. He’s like the John McDonald of the college game. John McDonald is a career .238/.276/.317 hitter in the bigs. John McDonald hit .261/.321/.329 in the minors. John McDonald just signed a two year contract that will guarantee him three million dollars. I won’t say that Schlander will ever be a big leaguer making coin like that, but I do feel comfortable predicting that he’ll be on draft boards either this summer or next. He’ll get a chance to show off his defensive versatility this season as Kenny Diekroeger swipes the starting shortstop job away, a blessing in disguise for Schlander’s pro prospects. Expect a forward thinking front office, maybe Seattle or Boston, to pop Schlander late (round 35+) against all offensive odds before he graduates.

JR C Zach Jones (2010) is a bit of an enigma – a potential above-average defender behind the plate who doubles as an outstanding athlete and fantastic baserunner. I like guys who break the mold, and players who can legitimately catch AND steal double digit bases are a rarity. I also like guys who can hit, something Jones hasn’t proven he can do. His defense may be enough to get him drafted, but it won’t be until very late…and it may not be until his senior year.

SR INF Min (Brian) Moon (2010) can play any infield position, but has been slowed his entire career with Stanford with one nagging injury after another. The inconsistent playing time has prevented him from showing off his above-average defense and intriguing raw power, but he may not get the needed at bats to get noticed in time for the draft this June.

JR OF Dave Giuliani (2010) ought to be in the running for some playing time in Stanford’s wide open outfield. A big junior year could get him noticed as a potential above-average big league backup outfielder option down the line. Giuliani does a lot right on defense (average in center, above-average on the corners, plus a very strong arm) and on the base paths (55 speed), but has a lot to prove with the bat. His lack of playing time his first two seasons at Stanford make him a good bet to stick around campus through his senior year.

SR RHP Cory Bannister (2010) may have impressive bloodlines (he’s Brian’s brother and Floyd’s son), but he isn’t a pro prospect. Short, fringy stuff, poor numbers, and coming off of Tommy John surgery? Not going to cut it. Name recognition might be his only shot at a professional career.

SR INF Adam Gaylord (2010) would need a minor miracle to even get on a big league club’s draft radar this June. Scrappy college middle infielders normally receive more than their fair share of love from scouts, but no amount of grit can make a 10-54 BB to K ratio with absolutely no power (18 extra base hits in 287 at bats) appealing. Come to think of it, a minor miracle probably still won’t be enough for Gaylord to play pro ball after graduation, but he’ll always have the degree from Stanford to fall back on.

JR RHP Andrew Clauson (2010) hasn’t pitched in live game action since 2007. He isn’t a pro prospect, despite a fastball that has been clocked as high as 92 in the past.

JR C Ben Clowe (2010) offers up solid defensive tools, but doesn’t bring much else to the table. He has been leapfrogged on the depth chart by Zach Jones, a pretty damning sign for any player hoping to someday get paid to play. Clowe isn’t a bad college ballplayer, especially if he is your backup backstop, but that puts pretty far off any scouting director’s radar.

JR RHP Danny Sandbrink (2010) just doesn’t miss enough bats with his fastball, curveball, and changeup combo to justify a spot in the draft this June. His disastrous 2009 season (ERA over 7.00 with a 22/16 strikeout to walk ratio in 33 innings) puts him behind a slew of more talented arms in the Stanford pitching staff pecking order.

JR OF Kellen McColl (2010) would be a potential first round prospect if only for a few alterations to his last name. Kellen McColl doesn’t have much of a chance of getting drafted at all. Kellen McCool, however, now that’s a player a smart scouting director would jump at the chance to pay millions of dollars. McColl doesn’t have a starting job heading into 2010 (though his above-average speed and solid defense could get him some time in left now that Toby Gerhart will spend the spring prepping for the NFL Draft) and should probably just go ahead now and make plans for June 7-9 that don’t revolve around following the draft online.

SR OF/HB Toby Gerhart (2010) will spend the spring working out in preparation for the NFL Draft this June. Followers of the site know I’m a bit obsessive when it comes to drafts in any of the major sports, so when I’m not writing something for this site, I tend to be scouring the internet for any kind of useful information re: the NFL Draft. As an aside, nice a prospect as Gerhart may be on the gridiron, I’d rather my favorite team take one of the other two high profile baseballers in this year’s draft. Give me Chad Jones in the second/third round area, and Riley Cooper late, but thanks but no thanks on Gerhart, assuming he goes as high as many outlets are projecting. I’m not hating on the player per se, but rather currently thinking his value isn’t in line with where he’ll probably wind up going on draft day. Anyway, he’s at the bottom of the 2010 rankings because he chose football over baseball, truly an unforgivable sin.

2011

SO OF Jack Mosbacher (2011) is officially listed as a sophomore despite not playing for the Cardinal as a freshman. Typically players who don’t get into any actual games get the redshirt tag, whether or not it was a planned redshirt season or not. Mosbacher could be listed as a redshirt freshman, but is instead referred to as a sophomore. His draft year remains the same either way, so there really isn’t any point talking about this, but these are the things you need to ramble on about to fill space in a paragraph that is supposed to be about a guy named Mosbacher. To his credit, Mosbacher actually sounds like a fascinating person (involved in multiple theater productions, interested in a career in public service, and has parents who were both tremendous athletes) and a prospect with some upside (above-average speed and arm, enough defensive tools to play centerfield, leadoff hitter profile). We’ll see.

SO INF Justin Schwartz (2011) has enough speed to be a pretty useful college infielder, especially in a backup role. Without any kind of college data or meaningful scouting reports or ever having him seen in person (sadly I’ve never been able to visit Beverly Hills HS, where Schwartz attended), I really don’t have anything more to add here. Paragraphs like this should serve as a reminder why you, the reader, will never have to pay a dime to read this site.

2012

FR SS Kenny Diekroeger (2012) will be linked to 2010 draft prospect LeVon Washington because they were the first two (unsigned) picks of the Rays, but Washington’s upside doesn’t begin to scrape the bottom of Diekroeger’s. Washington is considered a top half of the 2010 first round pick by some; I don’t like him quite that much, but he’s a legit high round prospect all the same. If Diekroeger is significantly better, like I believe he is, then what’s his ultimate draft position upside? His plus-plus athleticism and speed, big league ready frame, and high likelihood he sticks up the middle defensively gives him a place in the top ten of my hypothetical 2012 MLB Mock Draft. He is a little raw both at the plate and in the field, but, wow, that athleticism. You’re always gambling on tools-oriented guys like this, but that athleticism is special enough to outweigh much of the risk. He just looks like a player that will figure it all out before too long.

FR 1B/OF Justin Ringo (2012) is one of the top incoming first base/corner outfield/big bat prospects in the nation. He has plus lefthanded power, ridiculous bat speed, and a compact yet thunderous swing. His early rise to fame has helped him develop a very patient approach to the plate, a trait he has been forced to concentrate on dating back to the frequent pitch-arounds of his sophomore season. All college players were excellent high school players, but it isn’t everyday that a player gets that kind of respect that early in his prep career. Ringo rarely swings at a bad ball and strikes out way less than your typical power hitting prospect. That’s partially because of the aforementioned experience watching garbage pitches go by, but also explained by the fact Ringo isn’t a typical power hitting prospect; he’s a great hitter who just so happens to have great power. He could join Diekroeger in the 2012 first round.

FR INF Eric Smith (2012) may be a name that gets lost amidst the huge names of the consensus top three 2010 Stanford recruiting class, but that would be a mistake. Smith played two years of high school baseball at shortstop after starting out by playing one at third base, but could shift over to the hot corner as he fills out. His plus arm and quick reaction time should play well there. Few players across the country put up high school numbers quite like Smith’s, a testament to his uncanny ability to make consistent hard contact at the plate. I know high school numbers rank absurdly low on the great big list of things that make prospects appealing, but numbers as ridiculous as Smith’s were can get a largely unrecognized player on a scout/recruiting coordinator watch list, for curiosity’s sake if nothing else. Once on the watch list, positive scouting reports (e.g. consistent hard contact) can paint a slightly more meaningful picture of what kind of player we’re talking about. I won’t pretend to know any more about Smith than what has already been said (intriguing defensive tools, plus arm, consistent hard contact), but it’s a start.

Posted in 2010 College Team Profiles, 2010 MLB Draft | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

College Team Profiles

Posted by Rob Ozga on January 20, 2010

So far…

The UNC and Texas editions were from last year, so expect both to be updated in the coming weeks. The LSU one is current, but needs to be finished. My goal is to knock a few of these out a week from now all the way until the draft in June, but they’ll be published as works in progress rather than finished products. So, maybe I start by picking three college teams at random — say, Vanderbilt, UC-Riverside, and Toledo — and then add three or four players to each team profile a day. This way we can spread around the brief scouting blurbs that normally come with each profile among multiple teams instead of just one.

Important Interjection —> The College Team Profiles aren’t meant to replace whatever day-to-day content you’d normally see around here. I’d rather they supplement the good stuff than replace anything. So if this sounds boring or not all that useful in the grand scheme of things, don’t worry. Plenty of rankings, lists, and mocks will still be ready to go.

Anyway, the actual point of this post is pretty simple – are there any teams you’d want to see done first? Top 10 teams? Big conference schools? Smaller schools? Teams with talented players eligible for the 2010 draft? Or teams with younger talent who won’t be ready until 2011 or 2012? Any preferences?

Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments »

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