The Baseball Draft Report

Confession time – I’m a Phillies fan. Knowing that, I hope it is understandable why posting here has been sporadic at best over the past month. I thought I’d be able to be a real person (like, you know, go to work every day), obsessively follow the Phillies through October/early November, and begin posting semi-regularly again. I underestimated my baseball fandom, a mistake I won’t soon make again.

Thanks to all who have stuck with the site what with all of our “short breaks” over the past few months. I’ve been quietly pouring over all kinds of random scouting reports, watching video and live action at both high school showcases and college fall ball, and doing the best I can to convince my limited contacts to spill their guts about the new crop of draft-eligible talent. New thrice-weekly posting offseason posting schedule will be rolled out soon, along with plenty of new college and high school player profiles.

I’m a guy who likes a good plan. I’m also a guy who likes making plans only to forget them mere seconds after committing to them. In an effort to remedy that second problem of mine, here’s what’s in store over the next few weeks…

• 2010 Mock Draft 1.0
• Position Breakdowns (Top Tens)
• College Team Profiles
• Class of 2011 Quick Preview

I’m sure I’m forgetting other good stuff I’ve either a) promised in the past, or b) should have thought of, but can’t come up with at the moment because, well, I stink at thinking off the top of my head like this. What am I missing?

The Harper backlash has already begun in some corners of the internet, but I’m going to be oh so bold and stick with him as the top draft prospect heading into 2010. Keep in mind this is coming from the same guy who totally called Stephen Strasburg as the top pick last year. Amazing prediction, am I right? Now you see why I have to disappear for months at a time during the draft offseason – I’m working hard coming up with such bold, innovative predictions that allow me to stand out amongst the crowd of all the other amateur draft prognosticators. I should really start charging for my brilliant insight…

RHP Jameson Taillon
3B Nick Castellanos
RHP AJ Cole
OF Austin Wilson

Picking Harper for the top spot was a piece of cake. Picking Taillon right behind him is almost as easy. A piece of pie, if you will. Taillon’s extensive arsenal of quality pitches (heavy FB, nasty low-80s SL, near-plus high-70s CB, occasional splitters and CUs) and high level of high school competition put him above the rest of this year’s impressive crop of teenage righthanded pitching. After last year’s lackluster prep position player class, I’m admittedly a little bit desperate for some exciting high school bats to emerge this spring. To that end, I throw my full support behind both Castellanos and Wilson as legit high first round caliber talents. By the way, I hate pie. I don’t mean I hate Taillon – I’m through with that lame metaphor. I mean actual pie. Apple is alright, I guess. Lemon meringue is probably my favorite. The rest? No, thank you. Makes Thanksgiving dessert a bit of a downer for me, but, on the bright side, it allows me more freedom to eat as much of the dinner portion of the meal as I can possibly stuff down my throat.

RHP Anthony Ranaudo
RHP Karsten Whitson
LHP Drew Pomeranz
RHP Brandon Workman
RHP Stetson Allie

Ranaudo is lower here than even I expected, but the upside of the five names in front of him partially explains his low standing. I also have personal reservations about big guys that don’t throw nearly as hard as expected. There is plenty of tape on him floating around, so I’ll need to take a closer look and break him down in the near future. Workman has been a fascination of mine since the Phillies failed to sign him coming out of high school, so I feel confident in his placement based on his outstanding raw stuff and physical build. Allie is ahead of Whitson on talent alone at this point, but the up and down results that Allie puts up make him a very difficult player to accurately access.

INF/OF/RHP Yordy Cabrera
RHP Deck McGuire
3B Zack Cox

Something about those draft eligible sophomores always intrigues me. I haven’t talked to many people who think Cabrera will stick at shortstop professionally, but he’s so darn talented across the board that I’d be willing to gamble on him being productive wherever he winds up on the diamond.

RHP Jesse Hahn
LHP Chris Hale

The two big names from the Cape are still a mystery to me as far as their prospect standing goes. They are both very good prospects, of course, but the question of how good remains to be answered. Yes, I realize I could write that exact same blurb about every player on this list, especially the college guys. I may have worked too hard to cover up my high school blindspots. Time to get back to studying the college game for a bit, starting with the high upside, high flameout possibilities listed above.

RHP Cameron Bedrosian
RHP Kyle Blair
RHP Matt Harvey

Undersized righthander with a hot fastball and an excellent curve with big league bloodlines? If it hasn’t been made before, I’m happy to be the first to throw out the Kyle Drabek/Cameron Bedrosian comparison. Blair and Harvey have seen their respective stocks drop a ton in the past calendar year. I’m a believer in the rule that once you show a skill, you own that skill. Neither Blair nor Harvey has been seriously injured. Neither Blair nor Harvey has forgotten how to throw a baseball with nasty stuff.

RHP Dylan Covey
RHP Kaleb Cowart
MIF Anthony Wolters
C/OF Stefan Sabol
OF Bryce Brentz
LHP James Paxton

Wolters and Sabol could both be impact players at up the middle defensive positions as professionals, with Wolters having a chance to be a truly special defender at second base in time. Brentz and Paxton might have cases as having the highest upsides of any position player and pitcher in the collegiate ranks, respectively.

RHP Zach Lee
RHP Peter Tago
RHP Jesus Valdez
RHP AJ Vanegas
RHP Justin Grimm
OF Angelo Gumbs
OF Brian Ragira
C Rob Brantly

Valdez doesn’t have quite the velocity of some pitchers in his class, but the movement he gets on his fastball makes it a legit plus pitch going forward. Vanegas may be a quick riser as a professional; prep pitchers that can throw four pitches for consistent strikes tend to move fast. I think I have Ragira too low in this spot. He is a legit CF prospect with an above-average big league quality arm, in addition to a mature beyond his years approach at the plate. Brantly is another draft-eligible sophomore with tremendous upside; in a pretty good year for college catching, he’s the top four-year college backstop on my board.

OF Levon Washington
SS Rick Hague
SS Christian Colon

Let’s talk Christian Colon for a minute, shall we? I guess my lack of love for his game comes from me severely underrating the value of a league average big league shortstop (a rookie mistake on my part, I admit) and also being less than impressed when seemingly every scouting report about Colon begins and ends with talk about his personality, leadership, and the way he makes the most of his average at best tools. No doubt Colon’s makeup is totally off the charts and his defensive chops make him a slam dunk to stick at short professionally, but I tend to focus more on the “average at best tools” part of that discussion than the “personality” and “leadership.” I’m both ready and willing to convinced I’m totally wrong on Colon, but that’s where things stand now. For what it’s worth, I’ve only seen Colon play once since watching him in person in high school, so maybe I’m judging him unfairly based on my limited and outdated memory of his skills. Also, for what it’s worth, I have a scouting buddy who has seen Colon play a ton from his junior year of high school until this past summer and he absolutely loves everything about Colon’s game.

RHP Kevin Gausman
RHP DeAndre Smelter
RHP Tyrell Jenkins
OF Leon Landry
3B Victor Sanchez

Keyvius Sampson was my guy from day one last year. This year’s version might be Tyrell Jenkins. Jenkins has a lot of nice things going for him on paper – good velocity, sharp breaking ball (slider), very athletic, and a great amount of projection going forward. Sanchez seems like he is getting lost in the shuffle as another formerly highly touted high school prospect who has battled injuries and inconsistency at the college level. Since I love making unfounding comparisons, let’s call Sanchez the hitting equivalent of the previously mentioned Matt Harvey and Kyle Blair combo platter. Landry is a total upside play here, but I trust the LSU coaching staff like few others.

1B Christian Yelich
SS Sean O’Brien
1B/3B Kris Bryant
RHP Aaron Sanchez
RHP Nick Tepesch
INF Zach Alvord

If I had to pick one guy on my list to drop off over the course of the season, I’d probably go with Yelich. That naturally begs the question of why he is on the list in the first place. Yelich is like the hitting version of Stetson Allie, an up and down prospect that can look like a late first rounder one day and a fifth round lottery ticket on the next. It gets repeated every year, but it’s important: prep players limited to first base need to be able to hit, hit, and hit some more to be taken seriously as a draft prospect. I realize I have O’Brien lower than Colon on this list, but I’m not quite sure why. I’m a man who loves upside, and O’Brien’s ceiling is higher than just about any other shortstop in this year’s class. Of course, I’m also a realistic enough fellow who can readily admit that Colon is a much more certain bet to reach his upside than O’Brien. In one of the most spot-on comps of the year, scouts have compared Kris Bryant to a young Troy Glaus on more than one occasion. It’s only been 24 hours since I posted this list, but I think I’m already ready to knock Alvord off…

RHP Robbie Aviles
C Micah Gibbs
SS/RHP Justin O’Conner
LHP Jessie Biddle

I think Justin O’Conner could wind up as this year’s Casey Kelly, a ridiculously talented two-way player picked late in the first round by a team willing to pony up the big bucks for his services. In the end, however, I think O’Conner will deviate from the Kelly plan by proving himself to be a better hitter than pitcher. Biddle is the token prep lefthanded pitcher on the list. I felt bad about not including any young lefties on the 2010 list after the totally stacked 2009 class, so I threw lefties everywhere a bone with Biddle’s inclusion.

1. C Bryce Harper
2. RHP Jameson Taillon
3. 3B Nick Castellanos
4. RHP AJ Cole
5. OF Austin Wilson
6. RHP Anthony Ranaudo
7. RHP Karsten Whitson
8. LHP Drew Pomeranz
9. RHP Brandon Workman
10. RHP Stetson Allie
11. INF/OF/RHP Yordy Cabrera
12. RHP Deck McGuire
13. 3B Zack Cox
14. RHP Jesse Hahn
15. LHP Chris Hale
16. RHP Cameron Bedrosian
17. RHP Kyle Blair
18. RHP Matt Harvey
19. RHP Dylan Covey
20. RHP Kaleb Cowart
21. MIF Anthony Wolters
22. C/OF Stefan Sabol
23. OF Bryce Brentz
24. LHP James Paxton
25. RHP Zach Lee
26. RHP Peter Tago
27. RHP Jesus Valdez
28. RHP AJ Vanegas
29. RHP Justin Grimm
30. OF Angelo Gumbs
31. OF Brian Ragira
32. C Rob Brantly
33. OF Levon Washington
34. SS Rick Hague
35. SS Christian Colon
36. RHP Kevin Gausman
37. RHP DeAndre Smelter
38. RHP Tyrell Jenkins
39. OF Leon Landry
40. 3B Victor Sanchez
41. 1B Christian Yelich
42. SS Sean O’Brien
43. 1B/3B Kris Bryant
44. RHP Aaron Sanchez
45. RHP Nick Tepesch
46. INF Zach Alvord
47. RHP Robbie Aviles
48. C Micah Gibbs
49. SS/RHP Justin O’Conner
50. LHP Jessie Biddle

Back live on October 5th (not coincidentally the first day without baseball for the majority of big league fans) with tons of new content and, fingers crossed, a brand spanking new site interface.

I feel bad that almost everything on the site post-draft has been news about the site and the general direction where things are heading, but you won’t have to put up with it much longer. After thinking it over for a good 5 minutes or so, I’ve decided I might as well go ahead and call what started out as an early summer period of sporadic posting activity what it really is. Time for an official mid to late summer hiatus.

I know what you’re thinking – how will life go on without the high quality analysis and information provided by The Baseball Draft Report? Wait, you’re not thinking that? Not at all? Not even a little? Ouch. Well, here’s the latest and greatest revision of my master plan all the same. I’m hoping to pop in with some of those random updates as promised, so if it’s a reallllllly slow day at work and you’ve read literally every other interesting site on the internet already, check back here on the off-chance you’ll be rewarded with a stray 2010 draft tidbit or two. That’ll cover the three weeks or so until my triumphant return. When will that be? Hey, thanks for asking!

The timing of the reemergence of the site is most excellent, in my humble opinion. Expect a return to a fairly regular blogging schedule on or shortly after the 2009 MLB Draft signing deadline. By August 17th (give or take), things will finally begin to take shape around here. Team-by-team draft report cards will be ready to go (doing them after the deadline made too much sense to me – the timeliness, or lack thereof, is sub-optimal, but the overall quality of the product will be worth it), a mock draft will be finally set to see the light of day, and never before seen 2010 prospect/college team previews will surface. All that plus another site redesign that has boom or bust written all over. Could be the best thing I’ve ever done from a tech standpoint, or could be an ugly, clunky, unimaginative mess. I’m excited to find out one way or another…

I’ll still be checking in daily (more or less) until mid-August, so feel free to drop a line in the comments or via email (thebaseballdraftreport at gmail dot com). I’ve got a terrible memory when it comes to keeping track of which comments I’ve responded to and which I haven’t (it’s not personal at all, I’m just a tad absent-minded when it comes to communication), so don’t feel bashful when it comes to badgering me for responses to something I’ve missed.

Time now for me to get writing…

I’ve put off writing anything of consequence about the Eastern League All-Star game because, while the game was competitive on the field, there wasn’t a whole lot to get excited about from a prospect standpoint. Sure, there were some big names in the game. And, yes, some of those big names played prominent roles in deciding the outcome of a closely contested game. Something about the All-Star game environment, however, made the action on the field feel secondary to the spectacle of the surrounding entertainment. I don’t mean that as a criticism; in fact, even though I came to the game with pen and notebook in hand prepared to watch as the student of the game I so often pretend to be, I found myself enjoying the game in an entirely different, far more relaxed way than usual. I explored the park, sampled the well above-average Thunder concession stand menu, drank just enough to cause me to forget which team was which once or twice, and did plenty of people watching (always a treat at a minor league park, doubly so in a locale such as Trenton).  Of course, that didn’t mean I completely ignored the action on the field. After the jump, a few meandering thoughts leftover from last Wednesday’s AA All-Star Game…

Read the rest of this entry »

On a whim — spontaneity is my middle name, after all — I decided to snag a couple tickets to tonight’s Eastern League All-Star Game (AA) in beautiful downtown Trenton, New Jersey. At least a few of our readers out there aren’t just Google-driven searches stopping by trying to hunt down the latest draft signing updates or gratuitous pictures of pretty girls; we’ve got some hardcore prospect followers who actually keep up with players once they turn pro. I do try my best at staying up with all levels of baseball’s prospectdom, honest, but sometimes trying to track all these players and all these teams and all these levels of competition leaves me disoriented and completely overwhelmed, lost in a sea of seemingly never-ending prospects. Chuck me a life preserver of knowledge and let me know if I’ve overlooked any big names to watch heading into tonight’s game; I’ll be forever grateful. Here’s what I’ve got so far:

Northern Division —> Zach McAllister, Anthony Slama, Junichi Tazawa (not playing), Madison Bumgarner (not playing), Brian Jeroloman, Jesus Montero, Josh Thole (not playing), Lars Anderson, Whit Robbins

Southern Division —> Daniel Moskos, Joe Savery, Vance Worley, Hector Rondon (not playing), Alex Avila, Carlos Santana, Brian Friday, Beau Mills, Quintin Berry, Mike Taylor, Nick Weglarz

My attempt to tie this back into the overarching theme of the website — that would be the draft, if the name of the site wasn’t enough of a giveaway — centers on a couple of the college guys I remember well from my days working on the periphery of the baseball industry before I started up the site. Ah yes, those were the days. I remember seeing Jeroloman, Robbins, and Moskos play live and in color on more than a few occasions back in their carefree college years. Come to think of it, those were my carefree college years as well – no student loan payments, no rent checks, no 403(b)’s, no heightened expectations to straighten up and fly right. Those really were the days. Anyway, I’m pretty sure I wrote some nasty things about Jeroloman (couldn’t hit), some glowing things about Robbins (as pretty an amateur lefty stroke as I had seen in person, damn near almost brought a tear to my eye), and some largely apathetic things about Moskos (mechanical issues, little projection left in his arm, inconsistent stuff…but still a varied enough repertoire that I thought he could be a back of the rotation big league starting pitcher with time). It’ll be cool to see how my opinion has changed of each young fella, not to mention the fun it’ll be to check out some of the really big boppers (Montero, Anderson, Santana, Mills, Taylor, and Weglarz) scheduled to appear in the game.

So, who am I missing? Or, who on the list is someone I should pay extra special attention to? Or, should I just skip the game entirely and see what other fun, legal or otherwise, I can conjure up in Trenton on a Wednesday night?

Finally got around to updating the signings thread, check it out via the link at the top if so inclined. Because I feel bad about the general lameness of this post (hey, I updated something! = lame), here’s a comment that serves as a quick teaser to some of the 2010 stuff on the way. We’re talking 2010 prep arms here:

Cole and Taillon are 1-2, no doubt, but Whitson, Allie, and Covey are all getting potential first round buzz. I personally loved what I saw on video of Cam Bedrosian. Another big personal favorite of mine is Jesus Valdez, super projectable and already armed with a fastball with sick late life.

I’m also the guy that was telling anybody that would listen (my mom) that Mike Burgess would go higher than Jason Heyward at around this point in the process, so my track record of early projections hasn’t been so great. Hey, I try…

Ha, I actually found my original quote re: Burgess vs Heyward. The internet is a magical place…

As for the question at hand, I personally like Burgess best at this point. The combination of raw power, explosive (though inconsistent) swing mechanics, 94 mph arm strength, playable speed (6.9 60), and baserunning instincts well beyond his years make for a heck of a total package. Heyward and Vitters are both excellent prospects in their own right and any argument supporting either would definitely have merit.

Speaking of Vitters, I’ve really been impressed with him and the group of high school third basemen in general this season. My favorite of that group and minor sleeper come draft day is Victor Sanchez from California. I don’t think I’ll be able to go see any of the top HS third basemen this year in person, but I’d be very interested to see how they stack up against last year’s consensus top high school infielder, Billy Rowell (a player who I was lucky enough to see in person multiple times).

I feel like that quote encapsulates so much of what I’m all about when it comes to the draft. Poor projections (Burgess over Heyward), being too quick to look too far into the future (talking about Sanchez, a prime 2010 draft, back in 2007), and bragging about getting to see a player in person (yes, because seeing Rowell a bunch in high school makes me an expert!). I hope I’ve grown a bit since then, but…I doubt I have. Eh, personal growth is so overrated.

[Slight changes going on around here, so if you want to be surprised or hate meta-blog posts then you might want to skip this one and check back again later in the day. I always feel a little silly getting all meta and writing about the site itself (I mean, who even reads this anyway, you know?), so I'd understand if this gets skipped over. I wrote today's post specifically for any daily reader of the site (thanks, by the way) to know exactly what is going on with the direction of the site. I also wrote it for myself. See, for me anyway, this is all a trick to get motivated and committed to follow self-imposed publicly seen deadlines. So, read it or skip it, it's all good, but just know that real stuff is coming...]

Summer is my time for relaxed scheduling around here, but we have a new plan of action that calls for a slightly tighter schedule going forward. I hope/think it’ll work out. Here’s what I’ve come up with so far, let me know if any of this makes sense. It’s a combination of explaining what I’ve been up to (good stuff, hopefully) and what I’d like to do going forward…

I’ve been working pretty hard at finding ways to make time to sit down and focus on writing up certain features for the site (i.e. draft report cards and player/college preview profiles for 2010) while also doing the behind-the-scenes digging (like going to games and showcases, checking out video, making calls and emails to people way smarter and better connected than I’ll ever be) that helps me actually back up some of the silly things I write. I enjoy all of that, no doubt. However, I can’t shake the feeling of guilt when I don’t have anything I deem worthwhile to plaster up on the site, especially when I go longer than a day or two without any kind of update.

So, the new plan: totally random notes that require little writing prep time (fun fact about me – I hate writing), but serve as interesting (hopefully)  and topical jumping off points for more involved features to come. For example, in doing my digging on 2010 prep pitchers I’ve come across a wealth of information on some really interesting names for the next year’s draft. Under my current system, I file it all away until…well, I’m not really sure. What am I waiting for? I started this site wanting to do “features,” and I still kind of like the idea of that, but my real goal was to just share as much info as I can with people who care about this stuff as much as I do. Waiting on sharing good information so that I can put it in a nice article-style post runs counter to what I’m trying to do. I realize now that I work better when I just type. Get info, do a little more digging, get a little more info…then type. It’ll be way more of a natural process for me, one where I don’t have to literally set aside time each day to sit at a desk and try to find the motivation to write about the 29th round pick of the White Sox for grading purposes. (By the way, White Sox are next on my list of 2009 draft report cards!). So, the new plan: totally random notes pertaining to the draft whenever I feel like it (these should come early and often) while simultaneously continuing some of the long-range features that I’d like to get done before the end of summer (report cards, early mock drafts, and anything else we can come up with). I’m digging this plan so far, and I really think it’ll work out better for all involved…especially the readers who check in every day wanting to see something new (thanks again for reading, it’s been a blast and you are all a huge part why).

Last but not least, first round signing post will be updated at some point later today. I’m not sure how useful that is to a hardcore draft follower, but it seems to be pretty handy for fans just popping in to check on their favorite team’s first round pick. I really should focus more on draft signings, especially those difficult to sign mid-round high school guys, but, quite frankly, all of that bores me. It’s all posturing until signing day, anyway…wake me up August 17th, then we’ll talk. I guess that attitude doesn’t make a ton of sense (you could say the same thing about all the pre-draft hype – who cares that you are projecting Player X to go to Team Y, you’ll find it all out for real on draft day), but what can I really say? It just doesn’t get me all excited. For now, I’ll stick to my minuscule coverage of first round signings only. So stay tuned for that update later today, if interested.