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2015 MLB Draft Reviews – Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins 2015 MLB Draft Picks
I’ve done all of this so far in a non-linear way, jumping from player to player with only the slightest bit of organizational thought spent on an attempt to go around the diamond by position at times. Minnesota’s draft has inspired me to actually take a closer look at their top ten round picks in order. I just like their top ten rounds that much.
1.6 LHP Tyler Jay
My only real question with LHP Tyler Jay (5) going forward is how Minnesota is planning on handling him. That’s a testament both to how confident I am in his ability to pitch effectively at the big league level (and soon) and how uncertain I am about how the Twins honestly perceive his long-term role. He’s currently on track to start next year in AA and I see no reason why he won’t be up in the big leagues by early to mid-summer, but the starter or reliever question remains an open one. Personally, I’m all-in on Jay as a starter as you can read about in my in-season take below; he wouldn’t be ranked as the fifth overall draft prospect if I thought he’d be a reliever professionally. The Twins, however, have yet to ask me what I think, so where I see him heading holds no bearing on reality. I’ll assume Minnesota also views him as a starting pitching prospect since they took him with the sixth overall pick. There is, however, a wrinkle. Read on and see (or skip past the quoted text and I’ll give the short version)…
Even though I included him in the tier with Fulmer, Funkhouser, and Bickford and ranked him in the seven spot on my “preseason” draft rankings, I still think I’ve given short shrift to Tyler Jay. It’s fairly stunning to me that so much was made before the year by many (Keith Law, most famously) about UCSB’s curious decision to leave Dillon Tate in the bullpen, but I haven’t heard one peep about Jay’s usage. We all know by now that a last minute injury opened the door for Tate to start and the script has more or less written itself since then. What I don’t understand is how quiet the internet has been concerning Jay, a wildly talented young lefthander left to pitch only in short, unpredictable outings as Illinois’ closer. I’m not particularly interested in getting into the moral debate about what is best for the player versus what will most benefit the team (fine, real quick here’s my non-morals, all-baseball take: it’s crazy not to start a pitcher like Jay if the pitcher can in fact start), but I’d really like to see a potential first round player play on a regular schedule that would more easily allow as many well-earned eyeballs on him as possible. It’s nuts that literally everybody I’ve talked to, most everything I’ve read, and my own dumb intuition/common sense hybrid approach to this kind of thing (four pitches? great athlete? repeatable delivery?) point towards Jay entering pro ball as a starting pitcher despite never getting an opportunity to take the mound in the first inning in three years of college. If he’s good enough to start professionally three months from now, then he’s damn sure good enough to start in the Big 10. (This is the part where I’ll at least mention that Illinois’ pitching staff is loaded and whatever the coaches want to do with their team is their call. Still, for both short-term [Jay is awesome, so give him more innings] and long-term [Jay getting more innings will show everybody he is awesome, he’ll go higher in the draft because of it, and you can tell recruits you had a guy go top five rather than top twenty-five] reasons, I’d think the decision to start your best pitcher would be a no-brainer. I won’t kill them because it’s quite possible that the Illini coaching staff has information about Jay’s ability to start [relative to his teammates, if nothing else] that we don’t know from the outside looking in. Either that or they are being irrational and buying into old school baseball tropes that will only make their team worse anyway. Where were we?) If Jay goes as high as his raw talent merits (he’s easily a first round pick), then we’re talking about a college reliever being drafted right into a professional rotation. Such a move feels unprecedented to me; a quick check back through the archives reveals only one other similar first round case in the six drafts I’ve covered in depth since starting the site. The only first round college reliever drafted with the idea of converting him to the rotation professionally was Chris Reed. More on that from back in November 2011…
As one of the most divisive 2011 MLB Draft prospects, Stanford LHP Chris Reed will enter his first full season of pro ball with plenty to prove. He could make me look very stupid for ranking him as low as I did before the draft (200th overall prospect) by fulfilling the promise of becoming a serious starting pitching prospect as a professional. I don’t doubt that he can start as he has the three-pitch mix, frame, and mechanics to do so; I just question whether or not he should start. Advocating for time spent in the bullpen is not something I often do, but Reed’s stuff, especially his fastball, just looks so much better in shorter stints. Of course, he might grow into a starter’s role in time. I like that he’s getting innings to straighten out his changeup and command sooner rather than later. Ultimately, however, Reed is a reliever for me; a potentially very good reliever, mind, but a reliever all the same. Relievers are valuable, but the demand for their work shouldn’t match up with the sixteenth overall pick in a loaded draft.
I swear I didn’t copy/paste that just because it’s one of my few predictions to have held up really well so far. I mean, that was a big part of it, sure, but not the only reason. I guess I just find the case of Jay continuously flying just under the radar to be more bizarre than anything. I’m almost at the point where I’m starting to question what negatives I’m missing. A smart team in the mid- to late-first round is going to get a crazy value when Jay inevitably slips due to the unknown of how he’ll hold up as a starter. Between his extreme athleticism, a repertoire bursting at the seams with above-average to plus offerings (plus FB, above-average CB that flashes plus, above-average SL that flashes plus, average or better CU with plus upside), and dominant results to date at the college level (reliever or not), there’s little doubt in my mind that Jay can do big things in a big league rotation sooner rather than later. There two questions that will need to be answered as he gets stretched out as a starter will be how effective he’ll be going through lineups multiple times (with the depth of his arsenal I’m confident he’ll be fine here) and how hot his fastball will remain (and how crisp his breaking stuff stays) when pitch counts climb. That’s a tough one to answer at the present moment, but the athleticism, balance, and tempo in Jay’s delivery give me hope.
It’s hard to mention Jay without also mentioning Tate (multiple times, apparently), the fastest rising of this year’s college group of starter/reliever question marks (Carson Fulmer being the third). Tate’s turn in the rotation this year has allowed him to begin to answer all of those questions emphatically in the positive. His fastball has dipped some late in games so far this year (95-98 early to 91-93 late), but that’s less of a problem when you’re already starting at easy plus to plus-plus velocities; we should all be so lucky to throw in the low-90s when tired. Jay has shown similar velocity to Tate so far out of the bullpen (mid- to upper-90s), so even knocking a few MPHs off his peaks in short bursts would allow his fastball to play at a more than acceptable level in the pros. Just because Tate has done it obviously doesn’t mean Jay is a lock to do it when he gets his chance, but it’s a nice parallel to draw from two fairly similarly talented prospects.
To reiterate (or to mention it to anybody who wisely skipped that wall of text): the only first round college reliever drafted with the intention of converting to the starting rotation since I began the site in 2009 is Chris Reed. I’ve long argued that draft precedent is overrated — factors that typically create precedent don’t really apply to the act of drafting, especially as more forward-thinking front offices take power — but the complete lack of recent historical successful attempt (or any attempt, really) to convert a reliever to a starter is striking. It might sound crazy, but I’m a little concerned that the Twins will give into peer-pressure (like managers who are afraid to go against “The Book”) and take the easy, safe way out with Jay in the bullpen.
A worthwhile recent example to consider, for better or worse, is Brett Cecil. Cecil came out of the pen in 66 of his 74 college appearances at Maryland including 28 of 30 times in his draft year. He then went right into the rotation as a pro and remained a starting pitcher through his first three big league seasons. After a disappointing third season in the rotation, Toronto opted to return him to the pen starting in 2012. That’s where he’s lived since. There’s a happy ending now that Cecil has established himself as one of baseball’s nastier lefthanded relievers — something I’m sure Jay could match if it came to it — but there’s a part of me that wonders if the Jays pulled the plug on him as a starter too soon. I know there are injury questions with him and the not insignificant matter of some guys having stuff that plays up above and beyond in the short bursts, but Cecil’s peripherals as a starting pitcher were decent. They weren’t anywhere as good as he is as a reliever, but an argument for more patience for a lefty with 6.45 K/9 and 3.13 BB/9 as a starter can be made.
That said, three years watching a pitcher up close get the ball every fifth day is ample time to come up with a decision on his future. I’d be thrilled if Jay got three seasons in a big league rotation to show everybody how good he really is. If that happens, I think he seizes a job and keeps it until he’s ready to hang ’em up. If it doesn’t happen, then I’m really not sure Minnesota had quite the long-term vision required for a team drafting such a unique prospect. Let him start. Watch him do number two starter things.
2.73 RHP Kyle Cody
I didn’t love the pick of Chris Paul, as you’ll soon read. I also don’t fully understand Sean Miller in the tenth, but questioning picks down close to anything that starts with a 3 and ends in multiple digits is nit-picky even for me. Those two aside, the Twins top ten rounds are a thing of beauty. They checked almost every box: quick-moving college arm, well-rounded high school standouts, a power lefty and a finesse lefty, a slugger with arguably the best raw power in his class, and a college bat off to as good a pro debut as even the most enthusiastic supporter could hope. It’s a diverse blend of talent — 2 college arms, 1 HS arm, 3 college bats, 3 HS bats — that shows exactly what a team can do with a little scouting creativity. The big bummer here is the math involved: 2 + 1 + 3 + 3 = 9. Signing nine out of your top ten isn’t necessarily a killer, but whiffing on your second round pick hurts a whole heck of a lot.
Missing out on RHP Kyle Cody (66, unsigned) isn’t so much about Cody himself, but about the wasted opportunity to add somebody. The Twins are on the verge of another nice long run of sustained success, so maximizing early picks while you still are in a spot to get them is more important than ever. As for the player in question, Cody will return to Kentucky for a senior season. It’s a lazy but unmistakable comp, but Cody reminds me of a less explosive Alex Meyer with a better shot to continue starting as a pro. He’ll give pro ball a try next June.
3.80 3B Travis Blankenhorn
4.110 3B Trey Cabbage
Getting 3B Travis Blankenhorn (99) and 3B Trey Cabbage (104) with back-to-back picks is really nice. Both struggled some in their pro debuts — less so Blankenhorn, both in terms of raw numbers and contextually (he was a level ahead) — but retain plenty of their pre-draft future big league regular sheen. I saw Blankenhorn this spring and had this to say…
Blankenhorn played home games about ninety minutes from where I grew up, so I saw him a fair amount this spring. Again, without giving too much away, I’ll say that I really, really like Blankenhorn’s game. It’s a bit of a lame hedge to rank a guy fourth on a given list and then call him a FAVORITE prospect (for what it’s worth, Nevin was the only other HS third basemen to get the all-caps FAVORITE treatment in my notes), but here we are. Blankenhorn is a favorite because of his athleticism, approach, and phenomenal feel for hitting. Perfect Game recently threw out a fascinating Alex Gordon ceiling comp. I’ll throw out the name he reminded me of: lefty Jeff Cirillo. If it all comes together I can see a high average, high on-base hitter who will wear out the gaps at the plate and play above-average to plus defense in the field.
Neither Blankenhorn nor Cabbage profile as big power bats, but the well-roundedness fundamental to both of their overall games makes them very appealing prospects. I’ve long advocated for “stacking” at draft positions (e.g., following the selection of a HS catcher early with a mid-round college catcher) and the Twins took it to another level with two high school third basemen in a row. The one year age gap between the two — something to keep in mind now that I didn’t pay close enough attention to pre-draft — should help the two progress at different levels throughout the system, as will the positional versatility (Blankenhorn played 3B, SS, LF, and 1B; Cabbage played 3B, SS, LF, and RF) both men possess. You’d still want both to stay at the hot corner as long as possible, obviously, though getting them at bats at a level appropriate for their hitting ability should be the top priority at the moment. The expectation here is that both players could one day hit enough to be big league regulars; more realistically, by taking two similarly talented prospects this early, the Twins tilted the odds in their favor of getting at least one long-term keeper. Job well done.
5.140 LHP Alex Robinson
LHP Alex Robinson (213) in bad haiku form…
kind of young for class
northeast arm out of New York
so far, yeah, it shows
Robinson keeps with recent Twins history as a power-armed reliever who looks like a shutdown reliever when it all works. The problem with Robinson is that those times when it all works are too few and far between. Arm strength lefties with deception and his temperament (“pitches like a closer” was a remark I heard this spring) don’t grown on trees, so the thought process behind the pick is sound. If pro instruction can help Robinson find something in his delivery or approach that helps upgrade his control from dangerous to effectively wild, he’s a future late-inning reliever. Even improving his command a touch — he’s a classic case of a guy with a fastball that moves so much that it vacillates between a great pitch and a useless one — would make him a viable big league pitcher. I tend to think that’s what will happen here, but it’s going to take time and perhaps a few different organizations before it clicks for him.
6.170 OF Chris Paul
I’ve been the low guy on OF Chris Paul (273) for some time now, but it’s nice to see him get off to a nice start in pro ball. I still don’t see a big league future for him — he’s more senior season mirage than accomplished college bat and I question his patience and long-term defensive home as a pro — though he’s already exceeded my modest expectations for him, so who knows. I mentioned pre-draft that I would have loved to see his drafting team give him an honest shot at second or third before shipping him more permanently to first or a corner outfield spot. He dabbled at third (3 games), so maybe there’s hope for him as a funky utility player yet.
7.200 LHP Jovani Moran
The first of three high school prospects taken out of Puerto Rico, LHP Jovani Moran is a crafty young lefty with solid stuff (86-90 FB, chance for average mid-70s CB) and a little bit of growth left. You can debate the merits of the actual pick all you’d like, but I’m most excited by the Twins flexing their international scouting muscle beyond the scope of the international free agency period. Minnesota does international free agency exceptionally well (with not enough fanfare, I’d say), so it only makes sense to utilize some of the same personnel to potentially unearth some underscouted gems from outside the continental US during the draft.
8.230 1B Kolton Kendrick
Plus to plus-plus raw power with a questionable approach that might make it difficult for him to ever hit enough to tap into said power. That was the pre-draft Twitter-sized scouting report on the bat of 1B Kolton Kendrick (87). Then he went out and had one of the weirder debuts I’ve seen: .200/.371/.271 with 18 BB/24 K in 89 PA. So that’s surprising plate discipline with minimal power…got it. It should go without saying that 89 PA doesn’t render the scouting reports obsolete, so consider the preceding bit more amusing aside than cogent point about Kendrick’s professional future. Weird pro start or not, I remain high on him as a hitter. It took me almost all spring to get there, but power like his is so hard to find that I’m not sure why a team wouldn’t at least considering him in round three or so. Getting him all the way down in round eight is a major draft victory for Minnesota. It’s clearly a high boom/bust profile (not entirely dissimilar to Greg Pickett, taken just four picks later by the Phillies) to gamble on, but impossible to dislike as it was done at the perfect time.
9.260 OF LaMonte Wade
OF LaMonte Wade (134) is coming off as good as a debut as I’ve noticed so far, especially in terms of non-first round players. He consistently showed off all of what made him great throughout his run at Maryland in the Appalachian League: power, patience, speed, and defense. I thought before the draft that he profiled as somebody with enough ability to make it as an everyday player and nothing he’s done on the field since has changed my mind. At worst, I think you’re getting an elite fourth outfielder who tears up righthanders and is capable of playing all three outfield spots (and first base!) at a high level. I’m bullish on his future as a regular.
10.290 SS Sean Miller
As much as I value a good glove, I have a hard time using a top ten round pick on a player that will never approach an honest big league caliber bat. That’s how I see SS Sean Miller: big-time glove, small-time bat. The usual caveat that Miller hits better than 99.99% of the general population applies, of course, but that .01% represents his direct competition going forward. I get a little bit of an Emmanuel Marrero (7th round pick last year) vibe from him. I could be wrong, of course. John McDonald played 16 seasons and made over $13 million on the strength of a plus glove alone.
For as much as I praised Minnesota’s top ten selections (nine signed, technically), rounds eleven to forty were a bit underwhelming. There are a few hidden gems (hopefully), but anecdotally the talent here doesn’t match what other teams were able to pull. I realize the constricting rules of draft signing slots likely has something to do with it, but at the end of the day I only care about the talent brought in, however it may have been accomplished. It’s not a bad group by any stretch — I’d put the over/under on future big league players here at 2.5, which is pretty damn all right all things considered — so let’s get into it.
We’ll start off with some good news in the way of two power-hitting college guys who ranked in my top 500. 1B Zander Wiel (229) was a nice find as a 12th round pick (350 overall) with above-average to plus raw power, ample physicality, and a decent approach. Like Ziel, C AJ Murray (456) has big raw power. In fact, the two had very similar college numbers at big time programs (Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech respectively). Despite my pre-draft rankings, I think you could easily flip-flop Wiel and Murray as prospects; Murray’s pedigree intrigues me to no end and the Twins willingness to try him behind the plate again has me back on the bandwagon. He’s such a great athlete that I have a hard time betting against him.
OF Daniel Kihle has more swing-and-miss in his game for a player of his type, but his tools are impressive enough that he’ll have a long pro career even if he doesn’t clean up the approach. He has a plus arm, above-average speed, and average or better raw power. Not a bad set of tools for an 18th round pick. Speaking of toolsy mid-round college draft picks, come on down OF Jaylin Davis. Davis didn’t get a chance to make his pro debut this year due to his recovery from a torn labrum, so Twins fans haven’t had the chance to see him just yet. When they do, I think they’ll be impressed at what their scouting staff managed to find and sign with pick 710. His pre-season report…
Appalachian State JR OF Jaylin Davis has as many 55’s on his card as any outfielder here. He’s above-average or better in center, throwing, and in terms of raw power, and just a touch above average as a runner. I think he’s smart enough, athletic enough, and in possession of a quick enough bat to hit enough to make all those tools work, so don’t forget the name.
Unfortunately his labrum injury cut short his junior season (only 65 AB), so we really don’t yet know how far along he is when it comes to putting his considerable physical ability on display at a more consistent basis. There’s way more upside with Davis than your typical college 24th round pick. Just ask Carlos Rodon.
C Brian Olson was a pre-season favorite who didn’t have quite the breakout senior season needed to push him up into top ten round money-saving consideration. Still, he continued to show strong plate discipline, steady defense behind the plate, and enough power to be a threat on mistake pitches. Getting a potential big league backup catcher in the 34th round works for me. C Brad Hartong didn’t catch a ton after signing, so it remains to be seen what Minnesota’s long-term plan with him will be. He’s a good enough athlete to get real playing time in the outfield, but the bat looks a heck of a lot better if he’s a catcher. Bold take, right?
SS Alex Perez is a long shot — he is a 23rd round pick, after all — but you can see what Minnesota was thinking taking a chance on a middle infielder (he’s played 2B as a pro) coming off a monster senior season. There’s little to suggest in his skill set or overall track record that said senior year was the start of a new trend, but why not find out for sure firsthand at the low cost of pick 680?
Puerto Rican prospect C Kerby Camacho struggled mightily in his first pro season, but some of that is to be expected considering he’s one of the youngest players drafted (17 all season) this June. Puerto Rican prospect OF Lean Marrero struggled mightily in his first pro season, but some of that is to be expected considering he’s one of the youngest players drafted (17 all season) this June.
RHP Cody Stashak was a workhorse at St. John’s who has a solid track record of missing bats with average or better stuff (88-92 FB, usable CU and SL). LHP Anthony McIver is an older prospect (24 in April), but with good size and a history of missing bats (10.6 K/9 his senior year, 10.2 K/9 in his pro career) he’s worth keeping in the back of your mind. RHP Logan Lombana has missed bats (8.4 K/9 at Long Beach, 9.6 K/9 in Elizabethton) as well. RHP Rich Condeelis is a bit wild, but has maintained a reputation as a guy who can miss bats. RHP Max Cordy, unsigned as of MLB.com but clearly signed by the Twins (clear assuming you have any common sense and a willingness to Google as pitching in pro games is a pretty good clue a guy signed), throws hard (up to the mid-90s) with an average or better slider that flashes even better than that. Control is his biggest problem by far, but it’s the kind of stuff that has missed bats in the past and should continue to do so. Noticing a trend here? As I’ve said in other team draft reviews, I’d be surprised if any of these mid- to late-round picks even become factors at the big league level, but it’s admirable when a club puts an emphasis on production (not to mention solid stuff and strong, physical frames) to find a potential hidden gem.
Here are the pre-draft top 500 players selected by Minnesota…
5 – Tyler Jay
87 – Kolton Kendrick
99 – Travis Blankenhorn
104 – Trey Cabbage
134 – LaMonte Wade
213 – Alex Robinson
229 – Zander Wiel
273 – Chris Paul
456 – AJ Murray
2015 MLB Draft – Top 100 D1 College First Base Prospects
1. Boston College JR 1B/OF Chris Shaw: easy plus raw power; above-average hit tool; surprisingly short stroke for a power hitter with long-ish levers; holes in swing; good enough defender; strong; above-average arm; smart hitter; slow; have heard Harold Baines, Torii Hunter, and Steve Garvey as hitter comparisons; PG comps: Garrett Anderson (hitter), Casey Gillaspie, Chris Davis; reminds me most personally of Ike Davis/Carlos Pena; 6-4, 250 pounds
2013: .183/.286/.323 – 18 BB/32 K – 0/0 SB – 164 AB
2014: .329/.393/.502 – 21 BB/38 K – 1/3 SB – 207 AB
2015: .319/.411/.611 – 20 BB/26 K – 0/0 SB – 144 AB
2. South Carolina SR 1B Kyle Martin: good athlete; good arm; above-average to plus raw power; steady glove; lefty Steven Pearce comp; 6-1, 240 pounds
2013: .275/.363/.375 – 11 BB/10 K – 1/1 SB – 80 AB
2014: .336/.389/.443 – 22 BB/28 K – 2/3 SB – 244 AB
2015: .350/.455/.635 – 39 BB/27 K – 11/12 SB – 203 AB
3. Nevada SR 1B/3B Austin Byler: really like his approach; questionable defender; impressive raw power, at least average and likely above-average to plus; average hit tool; average or better speed; numbers inflated by environment, but production is still eye-opening; interesting spectrum of comps from Mark Reynolds to Tyler Colvin; 6-3, 225 pounds
2012: .258/.381/.387 – 18 BB/32 K – 4/5 SB – 163 AB
2013: .330/.410/.549 – 18 BB/47 K – 3/5 SB – 182 AB
2014: .326/.420/.624 – 23 BB/48 K – 7/11 SB – 221 AB
2015: .328/.507/.652 – 54 BB/57 K – 9/12 SB – 198 AB
4. Canisius SR 1B/3B Connor Panas: average or better hit tool; power upside; good speed; others like him a lot more at third, so might be able to stick there and should at least begin career there; 5-11, 215 pounds
2012: .262/.378/.352 – 18 BB/17 K – 1/4 SB – 122 AB
2013: .309/.439/.400 – 27 BB/19 K – 6/7 SB – 165 AB
2014: .362/.443/.574 – 26 BB/36 K – 16/19 SB – 188 AB
2015: .372/.472/.632 – 33 BB/39 K – 19/24 SB – 247 AB
5. Illinois SR 1B David Kerian: good athlete; HS shortstop who maintains a lot of the actions of a middle infielder at first base; comparable scouting history to Chris Paul (Cal); 6-3, 200 pounds
2013: .282/.363/.359 – 25 BB/34 K – 23/28 SB – 195 AB
2014: .280/.384/.404 – 31 BB/39 K – 9/13 SB – 193 AB
2015: .366/.452/.644 – 31 BB/25 K – 9/12 SB – 194 AB
6. Nevada JR 1B/OF Ryan Howell: quick bat; has played 2B this season; hit at every stop; could be versatile enough glove to have some utility upside; Oregon State transfer; 6-1, 210 pounds
2014*: .292/.464/.571 – 35 BB/25 K – 5/9 SB – 154 AB
2015: .312/.421/.642 – 36 BB/51 K – 1/2 SB – 215 AB
7. Michigan State SR 1B Ryan Krill: either the light bulb has finally gone off or it’s a senior year mirage, I lean towards the former; above-average to plus raw power; much improved approach to hitting this year, letting natural strength lead into power rather than forcing the issue; 6-4, 235 pounds
2012: .304/.396/.393 – 21 BB/24 K – 0/1 SB – 191 AB
2013: .283/.332/.366 – 14 BB/26 K – 0/1 SB – 191 AB
2014: .234/.322/.356 – 24 BB/36 K – 2/2 SB – 205 AB
2015: .351/.439/.615 – 27 BB/30 K – 1/4 SB – 205 AB
8. Vanderbilt rJR 1B Zander Wiel: plus raw power; strong; gets lost in shuffle of other Vandy stars, but knows how to hit; 6-3, 215 pounds
2013: .293/.396/.537 – 10 BB/10 K – 0/0 SB – 82 AB
2014: .260/.378/.409 – 34 BB/49 K – 13/17 SB – 235 AB
2015: .320/.412/.563 – 31 BB/49 K – 12/15 SB – 231 AB
9. Memphis SR 1B/3B Tucker Tubbs: strong; average at best at 3B; also plays some OF; runs better than most at his position; intriguing power upside; 6-4, 200 pounds
2012: .244/.313/.378 – 10 BB/14 K – 3/4 SB – 82 AB
2013: .327/.401/.427 – 19 BB/33 K – 2/7 SB – 211 AB
2014: .244/.360/.366 – 28 BB/31 K – 3/4 SB – 172 AB
2015: .305/.393/.601 – 26 BB/27 K – 7/8 SB – 223 AB
10. Central Florida SR 1B/OF James Vasquez: average hit tool; patient approach; average power, maybe a bit more; good glove; slow; didn’t have the monster senior season expected, but still does enough well as a hitter to get an honest shot in pro ball; FAVORITE; 6-0, 220 pounds
2012: .276/.397/.296 – 19 BB/14 K – 0/1 SB – 98 AB
2013: .252/.368/.443 – 30 BB/46 K – 2/4 SB – 210 AB
2014: .340/.445/.519 – 30 BB/20 K – 206 AB
2015: .276/.351/.424 – 18 BB/33 K – 0/0 SB – 217 AB
11. Richmond rSO 1B Matt Dacey: plus raw power; decent glove; Michigan transfer; 6-3, 210 pounds
2014: .269/.348/.503 – 24 BB/44 K – 2/5 SB – 197 AB
2015: .313/.424/.652 – 35 BB/49 K – 5/5 SB – 198 AB
12. Houston JR 1B Chris Iriart: plus power upside; will swing and miss, but he is what he is as a hitter; 6-2, 230 pounds
2014*: .316/.375/.550 – 12 BB/32 K – 2/2 SB – 171 AB
2015: .307/.427/.580 – 28 BB/64 K – 1/3 SB – 212 AB
13. Nevada SR 1B/LHP Kewby Meyer: above-average raw power; good arm; slow; has also played OF; 6-0, 190 pounds
2012: .302/.347/.385 – 14 BB/20 K – 1/6 SB – 182 AB
2013: .286/.327/.390 – 12 BB/19 K – 2/5 SB – 182 AB
2014: .328/.384/.490 – 22 BB/11 K – 6/7 SB – 247 AB
2015: .343/.385/.542 – 15 BB/16 K – 8/12 SB – 236 AB
14. Mississippi SR 1B/C Sikes Orvis: strong arm; intriguing bat; steady glove; 6-2, 220 pounds
2012: .232/.317/.321 – 6 BB/10 K – 0/0 SB – 56 AB
2013: .243/.333/.325 – 20 BB/29 K – 0/3 SB – 169 AB
2014: .294/.397/.540 – 37 BB/48 K – 1/1 SB – 235 AB
2015: .267/.395/.600 – 39 BB/55 K – 1/2 SB – 195 AB
15. Morehead State SR 1B Kane Sweeney: underrated power upside; patient approach; 6-3, 210 pounds
2013: .289/.401/.396 – 32 BB/51 K – 4/9 SB – 197 AB
2014: .309/.423/.509 – 42 BB/54 K – 0/3 SB – 230 AB
2015: .353/.482/.626 – 53 BB/48 K – 1/1 SB – 235 AB
16. St. Mary’s SR 1B/LHP Collin Ferguson: good approach; interesting power upside; good defender; 6-3, 215 pounds
2012: .342/.395/.467 – 15 BB/35 K – 1/1 SB – 184 AB
2013: .298/.360/.449 – 17 BB/48 K – 2/2 SB – 205 AB
2014: .256/.335/.367 – 27 BB/36 K – 3/6 SB – 207 AB
2015: .337/.463/.577 – 43 BB/47 K – 6/10 SB – 208 AB
17. Ohio SR 1B Jake Madsen: great approach; pretty swing; power beginning to show; slow afoot; average or better hit tool and patience; can square up any pitch type or velocity; plus defender; may not have the pop for every team, but deserves a chance to hit in the pros; 6-2, 215 pounds
2012: .317/.376/.385 – 20 BB/15 K – 1/2 SB – 221 AB
2013: .299/.351/.403 – 17 BB/19 K – 6/7 SB – 221 AB
2014: .322/.387/.365 – 21 BB/19 K – 1/2 SB – 208 AB
2015: .319/.382/.463 – 24 BB/17 K – 0/2 SB – 216 AB
18. UCLA SR 1B/3B Chris Keck: average raw power; above-average arm; only one productive year, but area guys swear by the bat; 6-2, 190 pounds
2012: .293/.354/.366 – 4 BB/7 K – 0/0 SB – 41 AB
2013: .186/.314/.300 – 14 BB/10 K – 0/0 SB – 70 AB
2014: .215/.301/.280 – 7 BB/22 K – 1/2 SB – 107 AB
2015: .306/.395/.505 – 30 BB/26 K – 0/2 SB – 216 AB
19. Maine SR 1B/LHP Scott Heath: power upside; FAVORITE; 88-91 FB; good SL; good CU; 6-0, 185 pounds
2012: .299/.382/.435 – 20 BB/17 K – 3/5 SB – 147 AB
2013: .266/.301/.338 – 8 BB/26 K – 2/4 SB – 154 AB
2014: .361/.422/.555 – 13 BB/19 K – 0/0 SB – 155 AB
2015: .308/.399/.478 – 30 BB/23 K – 4/5 SB – 201 AB
2014: 6.66 K/9 – 3.24 BB/9 – 50 IP – 4.86 ERA
2015: 7.05 K/9 – 2.93 BB/9 – 83 IP – 4.23 ERA
20. Florida State rSR 1B Chris Marconcini: plus raw power; good approach; average defender; long been a fan of how he handles at bats, but power dip is a bit concerning; Duke transfer; 6-5, 230 pounds
2011: .301/.404/.490 – 24 BB/38 K – 206 AB
2013: .316/.409/.579 – 28 BB/39 K – 8/10 SB – 190 AB
2014: .252/.341/.435 – 28 BB/38 K – 7/9 SB – 230 AB
2015: .228/.418/.447 – 35 BB/30 K – 1/2 SB – 123 AB
21. Oregon State JR 1B Gabe Clark: power upside; 6-1, 225 pounds
2013: .161/.278/.258 – 4 BB/11 K – 0/0 SB – 31 AB
2014: .280/.374/.376 – 20 BB/27 K – 0/0 SB – 157 AB
2015: .241/.356/.500 – 17 BB/28 K – 1/1 SB – 112 AB
22. Georgia Tech SR 1B/C AJ Murray: big raw power; strong arm; great athlete; good speed; questionable defender; 6-1, 210 pounds
2013: .270/.369/.399 – 32 BB/52 K – 4/4 SB – 233 AB
2014: .283/.376/.426 – 24 BB/52 K – 7/11 SB – 223 AB
2015: .279/.366/.582 – 26 BB/54 K – 1/2 SB – 208 AB
23. Florida Gulf Coast JR 1B Nick Rivera: strong and powerful swinger; 5-10, 200 pounds
2013: .297/.403/.508 – 31 BB/37 K – 0/1 SB – 195 AB
2014: .330/.437/.525 – 37 BB/24 K – 0/2 SB – 221 AB
2015: .347/.458/.608 – 40 BB/34 K – 0/0 SB – 199 AB
24. Jacksonville JR 1B/OF Connor Marabell: good approach; power upside; quick bat; 6-0, 180 pounds
2014: .371/.440/.539 – 24 BB/19 K – 9/9 SB – 178 AB
2015: .326/.386/.498 – 25 BB/31 K – 7/9 SB – 227 AB
25. Virginia Tech SR 1B/RHP Brendon Hayden: power upside; 90 FB; 6-5, 210 pounds
2012: .336/.393/.466 – 11 BB/28 K – 1/2 SB – 131 AB
2013: .193/.274/.299 – 21 BB/43 K – 2/3 SB – 197 AB
2014: .302/.407/.497 – 31 BB/49 K – 2/3 SB – 199 AB
2015: .307/.389/.542 – 28 BB/40 K – 1/1 SB – 212 AB
26. Texas Tech JR 1B/LHP Eric Gutierrez: power upside; 5-10, 205 pounds (2013: .230/.363/.393 – 22 BB/39 K – 1/1 SB – 191 AB) (2014: .302/.399/.539 – 26 BB/27 K – 0/1 SB – 245 AB) (2015: .315/.444/.443 – 39 BB/26 K – 2/2 SB – 203 AB)
27. Kansas State rSR 1B/LHP Shane Conlon: plus glove; average speed; power upside; 6-0, 180 pounds (2011: 6.38 K/9 | 36.2 IP) (2011: .161/.242/.179 – 6 BB/6 K – 56 AB) (2013: .329/.422/.490 – 26 BB/29 K – 18/22 SB – 249 AB) (2014: .296/.367/.376 – 14 BB/21 K – 8/12 SB – 189 AB) (2015: .291/.384/.408 – 24 BB/18 K – 10/14 SB – 196 AB)
28. Georgia JR 1B Daniel Nichols: power upside; 6-3, 200 pounds (2013: .237/.342/.326 – 18 BB/26 K – 0/0 SB – 135 AB) (2014: .260/.367/.347 – 19 BB/36 K – 1/1 SB – 150 AB) (2015: .296/.370/.475 – 20 BB/34 K – 1/1 SB – 162 AB)
29. Liberty SR 1B/RHP Alex Close: above-average to plus power; like his approach; solid glove at 1B; can catch in case of emergency; has also played 3B; strong arm; slow; 6-3, 220 pounds (2012: .300/.345/.560 – 13 BB/36 K – 3/4 SB – 207 AB) (2013: .237/.320/.330 – 28 BB/58 K – 1/1 SB – 224 AB) (2014: .323/.370/.512 – 17 BB/46 K – 3/3 SB – 217 AB) (2015: .342/.422/.516 – 28 BB/55 K – 1/4 SB – 219 AB) (2015: 10.64 K/9 – 3.99 BB/9 – 20.1 IP – 2.21 ERA)
30. Quinnipiac SR 1B Vincent Guglietti: power upside; 6-5, 220 pounds (2012: .237/.316/.295 – 18 BB/18 K – 0/1 SB – 156 AB) (2013: .269/.318/.388 – 13 BB/45 K – 2/2 SB – 201 AB) (2014: .341/.404/.503 – 18 BB/25 K – 2/3 SB – 185 AB) (2015: .330/.414/.589 – 27 BB/24 K – 4/4 SB – 197 AB)
31. North Carolina Greensboro SR 1B Aaron Wright: power upside; average speed; 6-2, 220 pounds (2014: .254/.304/.333 – 2 BB/19 K – 0/0 SB – 63 AB) (2015: .324/.425/.648 – 28 BB/52 K – 0/1 SB – 179 AB)
32. Jacksonville State JR 1B Paschal Petrongolo: power upside; 6-1, 210 pounds (2013: .270/.378/.447 – 25 BB/37 K – 2/2 SB – 141 AB) (2014: .328/.398/.534 – 23 BB/64 K – 0/1 SB – 232 AB) (2015: .368/.451/.556 – 34 BB/61 K – 1/3 SB – 223 AB)
33. Connecticut SR 1B/OF Blake Davey: above-average raw power; good approach; 6-4, 235 pounds (2014: .313/.452/.512 – 30 BB/53 K – 8/15 SB – 201 AB) (2015: .300/.379/.477 – 20 BB/54 K – 11/14 SB – 220 AB)
34. Miami rSO 1B/OF Chris Barr: really good defender; smart hitter; good runner; 6-1, 200 pounds (2013: .226/.364/.252 – 23 BB/19 K – 7/10 SB – 115 AB) (2015: .321/.423/.440 – 24 BB/35 K – 10/10 SB – 168 AB)
35. Mississippi State rSR 1B Wes Rea: strong; big raw power; really good glove; 6-5, 275 pounds (2012: .244/.349/.381 – 24 BB/60 K – 0/2 SB – 197 AB) (2013: .296/.393/.464 – 26 BB/45 K – 0/0 SB – 196 AB) (2014: .245/.351/.365 – 29 BB/55 K – 1/1 SB – 200 AB) (2015: .287/.454/.471 – 40 BB/34 K – 0/0 SB – 157 AB)
36. Texas A&M JR 1B/RHP Hunter Melton: power upside; can also play 3B; 87-90 FB; 6-2, 225 pounds (2013: .288/.354/.492 – 10 BB/29 K – 0/0 SB – 118 AB) (2015: .319/.412/.531 – 24 BB/41 K – 0/1 SB – 160 AB)
37. San Francisco SR 1B/3B Brendan Hendriks: really intrigued by his hit tool, could be complete hitter in time; power upside; has seen some time at 2B; good athlete; others love him, but approach is a big red flag to me; 6-2, 200 pounds (2012: .319/.381/.370 – 9 BB/21 K – 0/1 SB – 119 AB) (2013: .190/.261/.215 – 11 BB/37 K – 0/0 SB – 158 AB) (2014: .287/.321/.493 – 11 BB/40 K – 0/0 SB – 209 AB) (2015: .290/.361/.449 – 19 BB/44 K – 3/7 SB – 214 AB)
38. Creighton rJR 1B Reagan Fowler: strong hit tool; good glove; 6-2, 200 pounds (2013: .295/.446/.362 – 33 BB/21 K – 3/4 SB – 149 AB) (2014: .362/.464/.481 – 26 BB/25 K – 9/14 SB – 185 AB) (2015: .319/.404/.384 – 23 BB/23 K – 1/2 SB – 185 AB)
39. East Tennessee State JR 1B/C Kevin Phillips: 6-3, 210 pounds (2014: .261/.335/.379 – 15 BB/19 K – 3/4 SB – 153 AB) (2015: .323/.395/.561 – 27 BB/25 K – 3/3 SB – 223 AB)
40. Oregon JR 1B/OF Phillipe Craig-St. Louis: strong hit tool; 6-0, 200 pounds (2015: .294/.383/.382 – 29 BB/30 K – 4/6 SB – 204 AB)
41. Lipscomb SR 1B/RHP Griffin Moore: above-average raw power; good hit tool; great approach; steady defender; plus arm strength; sticking with him despite lost year of development in 2015; 95 peak FB velocity back in the day; FAVORITE; 6-4, 220 pounds (2012: .226/.308/.285 – 15 BB/28 K – 1/1 SB – 137 AB) (2013: .205/.375/.313 – 29 BB/29 K – 1/1 SB – 112 AB) (2014: .299/.415/.414 – 17 BB/24 K – 4/6 SB – 87 AB)
42. Rice JR 1B/RHP Connor Tekyl: power upside; good defensive tools; 6-3, 190 pounds (2013: .248/.315/.266 – 11 BB/11 K – 0/1 SB – 109 AB) (2014: .259/.352/.281 – 21 BB/24 K – 1/2 SB – 135 AB) (2015: .308/.378/.411 – 23 BB/24 K – 1/1 SB – 214 AB)
43. Michigan State SR 1B/C Blaise Salter: strong hit tool; plus raw power; quick bat; good athlete; average or better glove; FAVORITE; 6-5, 250 pounds (2012: .288/.351/.515 – 4 BB/12 K – 1/1 SB – 66 AB) (2013: .337/.398/.497 – 14 BB/30 K – 1/1 SB – 181 AB) (2014: .317/.375/.484 – 17 BB/27 K – 0/2 SB – 221 AB) (2015: .268/.339/.409 – 13 BB/37 K – 0/0 SB – 220 AB)
44. Southern Mississippi JR 1B/SS Tim Lynch: 6-2, 215 pounds (2014: .256/.382/.312 – 32 BB/25 K – 1/3 SB – 199 AB) (2015: .313/.400/.510 – 23 BB/23 K – 0/1 SB – 192 AB)
45. Canisius JR 1B/OF Brett Siddall: above-average raw power; above-average arm; could hang in an outfield corner, but best at first; 6-2, 200 pounds (2013: .302/.379/.411 – 8 BB/22 K – 5/8 SB – 129 AB) (2014: .333/.416/.488 – 16 BB/23 K – 2/6 SB – 168 AB) (2015: .341/.390/.590 – 18 BB/32 K – 6/7 SB – 249 AB)
46. Dartmouth JR 1B Joe Purritano: strong hit tool; power upside; average at best arm; 6-1, 200 pounds (2013: .324/.405/.574 – 13 BB/16 K – 0/1 SB – 108 AB) (2014: .265/.355/.397 – 17 BB/20 K – 2/4 SB – 136 AB) (2015: .277/.355/.500 – 19 BB/31 K – 2/3 SB – 148 AB)
47. Tulane SR 1B/3B Tyler Wilson: great approach; mature hitter; 5-11, 215 pounds (2014: .077/.143/.115 – 2 BB/4 K – 0/0 SB – 26 AB) (2015: .272/.324/.360 – 11 BB/28 K – 0/0 SB – 136 AB)
48. Auburn JR 1B/OF Dylan Smith: plus raw power; average speed; 6-3, 215 pounds
49. Portland rSR 1B/OF Turner Gill: good raw power; streaky guess hitter; average arm; slow; 6-3, 215 pounds (2011: .348/.408/.500 – 20 BB/33 K – 184 AB) (2012: .341/.418/.508 – 23 BB/25 K – 2/2 SB – 185 AB) (2013: .222/.250/.259 – 1 BB/6 K – 0/0 SB – 27 AB) (2014: .234/.323/.308 – 24 BB/35 K – 3/4 SB – 201 AB) (2015: .294/.386/.495 – 25 BB/29 K – 1/6 SB – 194 AB)
50. Western Carolina SR 1B/LHP Jacob Hoyle: good defender; strong arm; power upside; 88 peak; 6-2, 250 pounds (2012: .281/.338/.416 – 16 BB/41 K – 2/2 SB – 185 AB) (2013: .296/.356/.526 – 16 BB/52 K – 1/1 SB – 213 AB) (2014: .332/.393/.570 – 19 BB/47 K – 6/6 SB – 223 AB) (2015: .372/.391/.628 – 0 BB/12 K – 0/0 SB – 43 AB)
51. Towson SR 1B/3B Brendan Butler: good approach; good athlete; above-average to plus speed; average to above-average arm; some see power coming, others think this is it; has experience in OF; opinions on tools all over the place; 6-2, 210 pounds (2012: .269/.391/.330 – 19 BB/23 K – 14/19 SB – 182 AB) (2013: .264/.339/.410 – 23 BB/33 K – 12/18 SB – 227 AB) (2014: .264/.382/.371 – 24 BB/18 K – 6/8 SB – 140 AB) (2015: .247/.365/.340 – 36 BB/19 K – 11/16 SB – 194 AB)
52. Gonzaga JR 1B/RHP Taylor Jones: 85-89 FB; up and down CB; good athlete; FAVORITE; 6-7, 225 pounds (2013: 10.06 K/9 | 5.82 BB/9 | 3.65 FIP | 17 IP) (2014: 6.29 K/9 – 4.07 BB/9 – 72 IP – 4.68 ERA) (2015: .358/.414/.545 – 10 BB/16 K – 0/0 SB – 134 AB)
53. Saint Louis SR 1B Mike Vigliarolo: good athlete; power upside; 6-1, 225 pounds (2012: .291/.357/.437 – 19 BB/27 K – 0/0 SB – 158 AB) (2013: .349/.381/.537 – 13 BB/32 K – 9/11 SB – 255 AB) (2014: .328/.368/.496 – 14 BB/30 K – 13/19 SB – 232 AB) (2015: .332/.383/.438 – 15 BB/25 K – 4/6 SB – 226 AB)
54. Florida Atlantic rSO 1B Esteban Puerta: 6-1, 200 pounds (2014: .276/.345/.371 – 11 BB/17 K – 0/0 SB – 105 AB) (2015: .308/.438/.483 – 34 BB/31 K – 1/3 SB – 172 AB)
55. North Carolina Greensboro SR 1B/OF Eric Kalbfleisch: good hit tool; average speed; average arm; 6-3, 210 pounds (2013: .294/.347/.477 – 16 BB/34 K – 4/5 SB – 197 AB) (2014: .317/.382/.508 – 14 BB/16 K – 1/1 SB – 126 AB) (2015: .348/.403/.503 – 15 BB/38 K – 3/4 SB – 187 AB)
56. Jacksonville State JR 1B Tyler Gamble: 6-1, 220 pounds (2014: .286/.410/.460 – 31 BB/34 K – 3/4 SB – 161 AB) (2015: .270/.421/.405 – 53 BB/40 K – 7/7 SB – 200 AB)
57. UNC Wilmington SR 1B Corey Dick: 6-0, 250 pounds (2012: .313/.406/.520 – 25 BB/44 K – 0/1 SB – 179 AB) (2013: .310/.399/.508 – 27 BB/30 K – 0/1 SB – 197 AB) (2014: .315/.386/.429 – 22 BB/23 K – 1/2 SB – 184 AB) (2015: .331/.434/.525 – 28 BB/22 K – 0/3 SB – 160 AB)
58. Ohio State JR 1B/OF Zach Ratcliff: 6-5, 210 pounds (2014: .232/.262/.313 – 4 BB/24 K – 0/0 SB – 99 AB) (2015: .286/.344/.536 – 5 BB/12 K – 0/0 SB – 56 AB)
59. Texas A&M SR 1B/OF GR Hinsley: good glove; gap power; good approach; 6-2, 220 pounds (2015: .209/.433/.326 – 14 BB/6 K – 0/0 SB – 43 AB)
60. NC State SR 1B/OF Jake Armstrong: above-average speed; 6-2, 190 pounds (2013: .273/.450/.377 – 32 BB/44 K – 7/7 SB – 154 AB) (2014: .229/.374/.343 – 20 BB/52 K – 5/10 SB – 140 AB) (2015: .228/.316/.404 – 13 BB/45 K – 2/4 SB – 136 AB)
61. Louisville JR 1B/3B Dan Rosenbaum: steady defender; wears the gaps out; average speed; average or better raw power; 6-1, 210 pounds (2013: .258/.288/.344 – 5 BB/19 K – 1/2 SB – 93 AB) (2014: .295/.396/.411 – 17 BB/29 K – 3/5 SB – 129 AB) (2015: .246/.353/.342 – 14 BB/28 K – 1/3 SB – 114 AB)
62. Central Michigan rSR 1B Cody Leichman: good raw power; good natural hitter; good defender; 6-3, 235 pounds (2013: .335/.414/.438 – 16 BB/44 K – 6/6 SB – 176 AB) (2014: .315/.390/.493 – 21 BB/33 K – 4/5 SB – 213 AB) (2015: .221/.362/.288 – 20 BB/28 K – 1/2 SB – 104 AB)
63. UC Davis rSR 1B/3B Nick Lynch: 6-1, 200 pounds (2012: .329/.415/.483 – 13 BB/23 K – 0/2 SB – 149 AB) (2013: .371/.453/.453 – 8 BB/25 K – 2/4 SB – 170 AB) (2015: .361/.452/.558 – 21 BB/28 K – 6/13 SB – 208 AB)
64. North Florida rSR 1B Ryan Roberson: 5-9, 215 pounds (2015: .347/.390/.532 – 13 BB/13 K – 1/1 SB – 222 AB)
65. Marist SR 1B/OF Steve Laurino: 6-3, 220 pounds (2013: .378/.417/.480 – 9 BB/26 K – 2/3 SB – 127 AB) (2014: .299/.413/.359 – 23 BB/25 K – 8/14 SB – 167 AB) (2015: .358/.442/.561 – 23 BB/32 K – 5/8 SB – 187 AB)
66. Central Michigan JR 1B Zack Fields: big raw power; old Victor Roache comp; hasn’t put it together; 6-5, 265 pounds (2013: .190/.288/.389 – 16 BB/43 K – 0/0 SB – 126 AB) (2014: .248/.298/.381 – 7 BB/37 K – 0/0 SB – 105 AB) (2015: .175/.242/.300 – 7 BB/20 K – 1/1 SB – 80 AB)
67. Eastern Kentucky JR 1B/3B Mandy Alvarez: power upside; 6-1, 215 pounds (2015: .319/.371/.565 – 17 BB/29 K – 1/4 SB – 207 AB)
68. Wichita State JR 1B/C Ryan Tinkham: 6-5, 210 pounds (2015: .333/.446/.576 – 32 BB/42 K – 7/9 SB – 210 AB)
69. Missouri State JR 1B/OF Spencer Johnson: 6-4, 215 pounds (2013: .295/.392/.402 – 18 BB/26 K – 7/7 SB – 122 AB) (2014: .265/.347/.478 – 23 BB/48 K – 3/8 SB – 185 AB) (2015: .316/.450/.508 – 40 BB/52 K – 1/2 SB – 193 AB)
70. Northeastern rJR 1B Rob Fonseca: power upside; can also play some OF and 3B; slow; good arm; 6-2, 200 pounds (2012: .317/.360/.550 – 11 BB/44 K – 2/3 SB – 180 AB) (2013: .350/.395/.525 – 17 BB/50 K – 1/2 SB – 217 AB) (2015: .274/.376/.581 – 25 BB/44 K – 1/2 SB – 179 AB)
71. Southern Illinois Edwardsville SR 1B Alec Saikal: intriguing power and size mix; 6-7, 240 pounds (2014: .306/.372/.427 – 22 BB/34 K – 0/0 SB – 206 AB) (2015: .308/.364/.508 – 20 BB/29 K – 0/2 SB – 195 AB)
72. Southeast Missouri State JR 1B/OF Ryan Rippee: plus power upside; will swing and miss; 6-6, 230 pounds (2013*: .336/.415/.533 – 17 BB/25 K – 4/4 SB – 152 AB) (2014*: .274/.353/.458 – 19 BB/38 K – 4/6 SB – 168 AB) (2015: .299/.373/.551 – 29 BB/60 K – 4/6 SB – 234 AB)
73. Savannah State SR 1B Charles Sikes: power upside; 6-2, 185 pounds (2014: .358/.416/.592 – 20 BB/36 K – 1/2 SB – 201 AB) (2015: .321/.410/.521 – 26 BB/39 K – 0/1 SB – 190 AB)
74. Connecticut JR 1B Bobby Melley: 6-3, 235 pounds (2013: .308/.393/.367 – 25 BB/31 K – 0/0 SB – 240 AB) (2014: .359/.475/.502 – 31 BB/19 K – 2/2 SB – 209 AB) (2015: .315/.401/.408 – 32 BB/30 K – 0/0 SB – 238 AB)
75. Connecticut JR 1B Joe DeRoche-Duffin: 6-0, 250 pounds (2015: .271/.416/.541 – 30 BB/51 K – 2/3 SB – 170 AB)
76. Nevada JR 1B/OF Bryce Greager: 6-1, 200 pounds (2014: .257/.350/.400 – 8 BB/22 K – 0/0 SB – 70 AB) (2015: .355/.459/.552 – 29 BB/46 K – 2/6 SB – 183 AB)
77. Georgia SR 1B/LHP Jared Walsh: 6-0, 215 pounds (2012: .157/.254/.235 – 6 BB/18 K – 0/0 SB – 51 AB) (2013: .303/.326/.434 – 6 BB/32 K – 0/1 SB – 175 AB) (2013: 10.27 K/9 | 6.69 BB/9 | 2.78 FIP | 37.2 IP) (2014: .188/.345/.217 – 15 BB/8 K – 0/0 SB – 69 AB) (2014: 7 K/9 – 6.00 BB/9 – 9 IP – 6.00 ERA) (2015: .306/.365/.462 – 13 BB/22 K – 0/0 SB – 173 AB)
78. Central Michigan JR 1B/3B Zarley Zalewski: 6-3, 185 pounds (2013: .265/.357/.340 – 16 BB/26 K – 1/1 SB – 147 AB) (2014: .351/.425/.468 – 18 BB/47 K – 0/0 SB – 222 AB) (2015: .374/.463/.483 – 30 BB/39 K – 5/9 SB – 203 AB)
79. Pepperdine JR 1B Brad Anderson: plus raw power; 6-4, 200 pounds (2014: .282/.348/.409 – 25 BB/50 K – 1/1 SB – 220 AB) (2015: .276/.369/.457 – 28 BB/55 K – 0/0 SB – 210 AB)
80. St. John’s SR 1B Matt Harris: 6-0, 210 pounds (2014: .285/.380/.435 – 21 BB/39 K – 5/7 SB – 207 AB) (2015: .335/.426/.489 – 21 BB/37 K – 6/9 SB – 176 AB)
81. Eastern Michigan JR 1B/3B Mitchell McGeein: 6-1, 210 pounds (2014: .242/.345/.387 – 17 BB/25 K – 1/3 SB – 124 AB) (2015: .277/.352/.515 – 24 BB/47 K – 4/4 SB – 206 AB)
82. Villanova JR 1B/RHP Max Beermann: 6-7, 225 pounds (2013: 5.40 K/9 | 7.43 BB/9 | 4.51 FIP | 13.1 IP) (2013: .208/.312/.409 – 10 BB/48 K – 1/1 SB – 149 AB) (2014: .304/.423/.492 – 24 BB/56 K – 1/1 SB – 181 AB) (2015: .280/.348/.490 – 16 BB/45 K – 1/1 SB – 200 AB) (2015: 10.07 K/9 – 3.15 BB/9 – 14.1 IP – 5.02 ERA)
83. Stephen F. Austin State JR 1B Kyle Thornell: 6-2, 185 pounds (2014: .256/.374/.496 – 16 BB/35 K – 0/2 SB – 133 AB) (2015: .301/.412/.524 – 20 BB/48 K – 3/6 SB – 166 AB)
84. Seton Hall SR 1B/OF Sal Annunziata: above-average raw power; quick bat; good approach; decent speed; solid defender; good athlete; has also played C; 5-11, 200 pounds (2012: .295/.369/.422 – 11 BB/39 K – 2/2 SB – 173 AB) (2013: .347/.403/.526 – 19 BB/30 K – 7/9 SB – 213 AB) (2014: .330/.393/.503 – 12 BB/38 K – 1/3 SB – 197 AB) (2015: .258/.317/.425 – 14 BB/41 K – 1/1 SB – 186 AB)
85. James Madison rSO 1B/3B Brett Johnson: 6-5, 225 pounds (2015: .274/.344/.488 – 17 BB/22 K – 2/3 SB – 164 AB)
86. Washington rJR 1B/OF Branden Berry: 6-4, 230 pounds (2012: .328/.406/.427 – 14 BB/35 K – 0/0 SB – 192 AB) (2014: .262/.340/.335 – 16 BB/36 K – 2/3 SB – 164 AB) (2015: .269/.372/.421 – 18 BB/44 K – 4/5 SB – 197 AB)
87. Kennesaw State rSR 1B/OF Chris McGowan: 6-1, 215 pounds (2012: .249/.314/.395 – 18 BB/55 K – 2/6 SB – 205 AB) (2013: .256/.392/.357 – 43 BB/31 K – 3/5 SB – 199 AB) (2014: .272/.340/.379 – 23 BB/43 K – 2/3 SB – 224 AB) (2015: .272/.387/.408 – 33 BB/27 K – 4/5 SB – 184 AB)
88. Marshall rSR 1B TJ Diffenderfer: 6-5, 240 pounds (2014: .258/.339/.417 – 19 BB/29 K – 0/1 SB – 151 AB) (2015: .291/.396/.430 – 28 BB/31 K – 1/2 SB – 172 AB)
89. Dallas Baptist JR 1B/3B Trooper Reynolds: strong bat; 5-10, 225 pounds (2014*: .318/.405/.441 – 23 BB/32 K – 3/5 SB – 179 AB) (2015: .275/.346/.456 – 20 BB/30 K – 0/0 SB – 160 AB)
90. Grand Canyon rJR 1B/OF Rouric Bridgewater: plus raw power; slow; Arizona State transfer; 6-1, 220 pounds (2012: .269/.291/.442 – 2 BB/11 K – 1/1 SB – 52 AB) (2013: .194/.275/.350 – 3 BB/10 K – 0/0 SB – 36 AB) (2015: .269/.333/.370 – 11 BB/19 K – 2/3 SB – 108 AB)
91. Illinois State SR 1B/OF Mason Snyder: 6-0, 210 pounds (2015: .303/.421/.467 – 30 BB/34 K – 0/0 SB – 195 AB)
92. Xavier SR 1B/OF Joe Forney: 6-4, 230 pounds (2013: .313/.378/.352 – 15 BB/33 K – 6/7 SB – 182 AB) (2014: .282/.349/.351 – 17 BB/39 K – 7/9 SB – 248 AB) (2015: .279/.384/.400 – 28 BB/36 K – 7/9 SB – 190 AB)
93. Oregon JR 1B Brandon Cuddy: 6-2, 215 pounds (2015: .255/.351/.401 – 23 BB/46 K – 2/2 SB – 192 AB)
94. Baylor JR 1B Mitch Price: 6-3, 240 pounds (2014: .258/.390/.379 – 11 BB/13 K – 0/0 SB – 66 AB) (2015: .278/.357/.405 – 11 BB/24 K – 0/0 SB – 126 AB)
95. Charleston Southern SR 1B/LHP Chase Shelton: strong arm; can also play OF; 6-5, 230 pounds (2012: .307/.367/.444 – 9 BB/14 K – 5/6 SB – 189 AB) (2013: .297/.349/.385 – 13 BB/27 K – 2/4 SB – 195 AB) (2013: 5.16 K/9 | 4.76 BB/9 | 3.71 FIP | 22.2 IP) (2014: .348/.408/.480 – 19 BB/15 K – 3/4 SB – 221 AB) (2015: .302/.366/.367 – 20 BB/20 K – 6/8 SB – 215 AB)
96. Alabama A&M SR 1B Jordan Friend: 6-3, 200 pounds (2015: .342/.433/.618 – 23 BB/36 K – 2/3 SB – 152 AB)
97. BYU SR 1B/3B Dillon Robinson: 6-3, 215 pounds (2014: .369/.405/.463 – 11 BB/28 K – 0/0 SB – 149 AB) (2015: .371/.453/.550 – 29 BB/45 K – 1/1 SB – 202 AB)
98. Prairie View A&M JR 1B Angel Avalos: 5-11 (2015: .359/.446/.551 – 9 BB/13 K – 0/0 SB – 78 AB)
99. Wofford SR 1B/OF James Plaistad: 6-2, 200 pounds (2014: .250/.317/.420 – 15 BB/30 K – 8/11 SB – 200 AB) (2015: .346/.434/.557 – 37 BB/56 K – 11/13 SB – 228 AB)
100. Norfolk State rSR 1B Ryan Kilmon: 6-4, 200 pounds (2015: .325/.444/.496 – 22 BB/30 K – 8/13 SB – 123 AB)
*****
Samford JR 1B Alex Lee: 6-1, 200 pounds (2015: .343/.425/.575 – 26 BB/47 K – 3/4 SB – 207 AB)
Wofford SR 1B Conor Clancey: 6-3, 220 pounds (2014: .230/.335/.377 – 19 BB/46 K – 4/5 SB – 183 AB) (2015: .326/.376/.593 – 15 BB/39 K – 9/11 SB – 221 AB)
Manhattan JR 1B/OF Christian Santisteban: 6-2, 215 pounds (2013: .268/.375/.464 – 23 BB/28 K – 1/2 SB – 138 AB) (2014: .314/.389/.446 – 15 BB/30 K – 1/2 SB – 175 AB) (2015: .301/.399/.449 – 27 BB/33 K – 1/1 SB – 176 AB)
Florida A&M SR 1B Ryan Kennedy: 6-3, 200 pounds (2014: .303/.401/.449 – 28 BB/38 K – 1/1 SB – 198 AB) (2015: .266/.382/.426 – 30 BB/27 K – 1/1 SB – 169 AB)
St. Peter’s SR 1B/OF Chris Hugg: 6-4, 230 pounds (2014: .292/.348/.452 – 12 BB/35 K – 4/6 SB – 168 AB) (2015: .312/.390/.474 – 19 BB/35 K – 6/9 SB – 173 AB)
Yale SR 1B Eric Hsieh: 6-0, 175 pounds (2015: .370/.491/.415 – 26 BB/13 K – 7/8 SB – 135 AB)
Purdue rJR 1B/LHP Kyle Wood: 90 FB; 6-0, 220 pounds (2013: .266/.397/.429 – 20 BB/36 K – 3/5 SB – 154 AB) (2013: 5.67 K/9 | 5.67 BB/9 | 3.55 FIP | 27 IP) (2014: .302/.390/.414 – 11 BB/33 K – 4/4 SB – 169 AB) (2014: 9.72 K/9 – 5.40 BB/9 – 16.2 IP – 11.88 ERA) (2015: .326/.421/.487 – 23 BB/47 K – 1/1 SB – 193 AB)
Alabama A&M JR 1B Dylan Payne: 6-3, 250 pounds (2015: .321/.406/.488 – 10 BB/17 K – 1/1 SB – 84 AB)
Southeastern Louisiana SR 1B/2B Kevin Carr: 5-10, 190 pounds (2014: .290/.410/.319 – 10 BB/22 K – 1/2 SB – 69 AB) (2015: .336/.424/.468 – 19 BB/31 K – 0/1 SB – 220 AB)
Texas-San Antonio JR 1B/3B Geonte Jackson: good defensive tools; good athlete; LSU transfer; 6-1, 200 pounds (2015: .298/.361/.363 – 20 BB/39 K – 6/11 SB – 215 AB)
Harvard SR 1B/2B Jake McGuiggan: 6-2, 200 pounds (2015: .347/.362/.504 – 3 BB/13 K – 3/3 SB – 121 AB)
Rider SR 1B/OF Justin Thomas: 6-4, 215 pounds (2014: .341/.402/.492 – 19 BB/28 K – 2/3 SB – 179 AB) (2015: .304/.386/.443 – 19 BB/29 K – 6/7 SB – 194 AB)
Ohio JR 1B John Adryan: 6-3, 215 pounds (2014: .282/.345/.374 – 10 BB/36 K – 0/4 SB – 174 AB) (2015: .292/.372/.427 – 24 BB/30 K – 1/2 SB – 178 AB)
Long Island-Brooklyn rSO 1B/RHP Mark Hernandez: 6-2, 200 pounds (2014: .302/.370/.354 – 17 BB/27 K – 9/9 SB – 189 AB) (2015: .253/.315/.434 – 16 BB/29 K – 5/7 SB – 182 AB)
Jackson State SR 1B Tilur Smith: power upside; strong; quick bat; 6-2, 230 pounds (2014: .331/.436/.521 – 18 BB/43 K – 5/8 SB – 169 AB) (2015: .266/.369/.388 – 20 BB/37 K – 6/8 SB – 188 AB)
Fort Wayne JR 1B Kendall Whitman: power upside; 6-1, 200 pounds (2015: .288/.409/.435 – 22 BB/46 K – 2/2 SB – 191 AB)
Northwestern JR 1B/OF Zach Jones: 6-1, 200 pounds (2014: .315/.345/.370 – 8 BB/21 K – 162 AB) (2015: .321/.374/.436 – 17 BB/30 K – 0/0 SB – 218 AB)
Utah Valley State JR 1B Mark Krueger: power upside; 6-5, 225 pounds (2013: .245/.300/.354 – 13 BB/49 K – 4/6 SB – 192 AB) (2014: .306/.366/.466 – 20 BB/47 K – 4/5 SB – 219 AB) (2015: .290/.390/.410 – 34 BB/45 K – 5/6 SB – 200 AB)
Mississippi Valley State SR 1B Brady McBride: 6-3, 255 pounds (2015: .322/.380/.421 – 12 BB/24 K – 3/4 SB – 152 AB)
William & Mary rSR 1B Willie Shaw: good approach; 6-3, 200 pounds (2013: .293/.396/.380 – 40 BB/32 K – 4/5 SB – 229 AB) (2015: .282/.386/.400 – 26 BB/36 K – 5/6 SB – 195 AB)
North Dakota SR 1B Ryan Reese: 6-0, 200 pounds (2013: .283/.387/.414 – 11 BB/24 K – 3/4 SB – 99 AB) (2014: .314/.442/.352 – 18 BB/16 K – 2/2 SB – 105 AB) (2015: .290/.412/.439 – 27 BB/34 K – 6/6 SB – 155 AB)
Kennesaw State SR 1B Colin Bennett: 6-3, 235 pounds (2014: .333/.472/.439 – 13 BB/13 K – 1/1 SB – 57 AB) (2015: .250/.373/.442 – 20 BB/30 K – 0/0 SB – 104 AB)
Texas-Arlington SR 1B Levi Scott: power upside; 6-4, 240 pounds (2014: .303/.347/.411 – 12 BB/37 K – 0/1 SB – 185 AB) (2015: .327/.374/.493 – 19 BB/37 K – 1/1 SB – 211 AB)
Western Kentucky SR 1B Ryan Church: power upside; 6-2 (2014: .306/.366/.445 – 21 BB/38 K – 7/10 SB – 229 AB) (2015: .284/.340/.445 – 18 BB/29 K – 6/10 SB – 211 AB)
Dayton SR 1B AJ Ryan: 6-3, 215 pounds (2013: .167/.258/.175 – 8 BB/21 K – 0/2 SB – 114 AB) (2014: .338/.400/.506 – 16 BB/21 K – 2/5 SB – 160 AB) (2015: .265/.342/.450 – 19 BB/33 K – 1/2 SB – 200 AB)
Troy SR 1B Trevin Hall: 6-2, 180 pounds (2014: .263/.343/.457 – 13 BB/57 K – 8/9 SB – 175 AB) (2015: .331/.385/.478 – 13 BB/30 K – 6/12 SB – 157 AB)
Southern Mississippi SR 1B/C Matt Durst: 5-10, 225 pounds (2014: .277/.340/.413 – 19 BB/40 K – 0/2 SB – 213 AB) (2015: .314/.354/.454 – 13 BB/31 K – 0/1 SB – 207 AB)
Maine JR 1B Brenden Geary: 6-1, 200 pounds (2015: .280/.378/.416 – 13 BB/22 K – 4/5 SB – 125 AB)
Dallas Baptist rSR 1B Chane Lynch: 6-5, 200 pounds (2015: .270/.346/.400 – 21 BB/30 K – 2/2 SB – 200 AB)
Columbia rJR 1B Nick Maguire: above-average power; above-average speed; 6-3, 230 pounds (2014: .265/.354/.400 – 19 BB/25 K – 0/0 SB – 155 AB) (2015: .235/.296/.429 – 12 BB/43 K – 1/1 SB – 170 AB)
New Mexico State JR 1B Joseph Koerper: 6-5, 235 pounds (2014: .288/.377/.348 – 20 BB/32 K – 4/4 SB – 132 AB) (2015: .316/.375/.424 – 15 BB/34 K – 0/1 SB – 177 AB)
Hofstra rJR 1B Ryan Donovan: power upside; 6-4, 210 pounds (2014: .260/.370/.519 – 13 BB/26 K – 3/4 SB – 77 AB) (2015: .234/.348/.416 – 10 BB/23 K – 1/2 SB – 77 AB)
Louisiana SR 1B/3B Greg Davis: 6-0, 225 pounds (2014: .314/.388/.500 – 12 BB/13 K – 6/6 SB – 86 AB) (2015: .257/.330/.408 – 24 BB/30 K – 6/6 SB – 245 AB)
Santa Clara SR 1B/OF TJ Braff: 6-4, 200 pounds (2014: .309/.358/.402 – 6 BB/23 K – 0/2 SB – 97 AB) (2015: .270/.339/.423 – 13 BB/37 K – 2/7 SB – 196 AB)
Louisiana Tech SR 1B Taylor Nichols: 6-3, 200 pounds (2015: .288/.361/.406 – 12 BB/28 K – 2/4 SB – 160 AB)
Fairfield JR 1B Brendan Tracy: good glove; 6-1, 200 pounds (2014: .260/.340/.366 – 16 BB/26 K – 1/1 SB – 123 AB) (2015: .287/.339/.440 – 10 BB/33 K – 0/1 SB – 150 AB)
Indiana State rSO 1B Hunter Owen: 6-0, 175 pounds (2015: .344/.400/.542 – 5 BB/19 K – 96 AB)
Penn SR 1B Matt McKinnon: 6-2, 220 pounds (2015: .333/.402/.491 – 8 BB/28 K – 0/0 SB – 114 AB)
Texas State rSR 1B/RHP David Paiz: 6-2, 200 pounds (2015: .275/.374/.408 – 34 BB/45 K – 0/0 SB – 218 AB)
La Salle SR 1B/RHP Mark Williams: power upside; 6-6, 240 pounds (2013: .288/.364/.442 – 6 BB/27 K – 2/2 SB – 156 AB) (2014: .275/.365/.458 – 18 BB/18 K – 1/1 SB – 153 AB) (2014: .275/.365/.458 – 18 BB/18 K – 1/1 SB – 153 AB) (2015: 5.35 K/9 – 2.68 BB/9 – 37 IP – 2.92 ERA) (2015: .305/.366/.481 – 9 BB/31 K – 1/1 SB – 210 AB)
Campbell SR 1B/OF Kyle Leady: 6-2, 200 pounds (2014: .238/.335/.292 – 13 BB/19 K – 5/7 SB – 130 AB) (2015: .336/.397/.472 – 8 BB/27 K – 14/18 SB – 214 AB)
Louisiana-Monroe JR 1B Danny Springer: 6-6, 240 pounds (2015: .271/.317/.508 – 10 BB/44 K – 5/5 SB – 181 AB)
Sam Houston State SR 1B Jake MacWilliam: 6-3, 185 pounds (2014: .277/.379/.362 – 7 BB/7 K – 0/0 SB – 47 AB) (2015: .378/.412/.483 – 8 BB/28 K – 1/2 SB – 143 AB)
Sam Houston State JR 1B Spence Rahm: 6-5, 240 pounds (2015: .295/.369/.427 – 21 BB/58 K – 5/6 SB – 234 AB)
Radford SR 1B/3B Hunter Higgerson: 6-3, 200 pounds (2014: .280/.355/.469 – 19 BB/33 K – 4/6 SB – 211 AB) (2015: .269/.323/.458 – 15 BB/45 K – 6/9 SB – 227 AB)
McNeese State JR 1B Connor Crane: 6-3, 210 pounds (2015: .272/.340/.443 – 16 BB/53 K – 12/14 SB – 235 AB)
Cal State Bakersfield SR 1B Soloman Williams: 6-7, 220 pounds (2014: .293/.343/.492 – 14 BB/47 K – 1/1 SB – 181 AB) (2015: .278/.382/.367 – 27 BB/54 K – 0/0 SB – 169 AB)
Fordham SR 1B Jordan Gajdos: 6-5, 210 pounds (2015: .328/.388/.426 – 5 BB/18 K – 2/4 SB – 61 AB)
Lipscomb SR 1B/RHP Tyson Ashcraft: 90 FB; 6-3, 225 pounds (2013: .280/.351/.411 – 14 BB/47 K – 3/4 SB – 175 AB) (2014: .249/.347/.402 – 19 BB/69 K – 3/4 SB – 189 AB) (2014: 5.40 K/9 – 3.60 BB/9 – 15 IP – 5.40 ERA) (2015: .276/.374/.409 – 14 BB/36 K – 3/5 SB – 127 AB)
Coppin State JR 1B/OF George Dragon: strong hit tool; 6-0, 210 pounds (2015: .295/.362/.370 – 15 BB/28 K – 0/1 SB – 146 AB)
2015 MLB Draft Prospects – Vanderbilt
JR RHP Walker Buehler (2015)
JR RHP Carson Fulmer (2015)
rJR LHP Philip Pfeifer (2015)
SO LHP John Kilichowski (2015)
JR RHP Tyler Ferguson (2015)
JR OF/RHP Kyle Smith (2015)
JR SS/2B Dansby Swanson (2015)
JR 3B Xavier Turner (2015)
JR OF Rhett Wiseman (2015)
rJR 1B Zander Wiel (2015)
JR 2B/SS Tyler Campbell (2015)
SO OF/1B Bryan Reynolds (2016)
SO C Jason Delay (2016)
SO OF/INF Nolan Rogers (2016)
SO RHP Hayden Stone (2016)
SO LHP Ben Bowden (2016)
rFR RHP Jordan Sheffield (2016)
SO C Karl Ellison (2016)
SO RHP/LHP Aubrey McCarty (2016)
rFR OF/INF Tyler Green (2016)
rFR OF Drake Parker (2016)
SO OF/2B Ro Coleman (2016)
FR 3B/SS Will Toffey (2016)
FR OF Jeren Kendall (2017)
FR RHP Brendan Spagnuolo (2017)
FR SS Liam Sabino (2017)
FR RHP Joey Abraham (2017)
FR RHP Matt Ruppenthal (2017)
FR RHP Collin Snider (2017)
FR RHP Kyle Wright (2017)
FR C Tristan Chari (2017)
FR 3B Joey Mundy (2017)
If JR RHP Walker Buehler, JR RHP Carson Fulmer, JR SS Dansby Swanson, JR RHP Tyler Ferguson, and JR OF Rhett Wiseman were your favorite big league team’s top five prospects heading into the season, I think you’d feel all right. Brewers, Angels, Tigers, Marlins (this year), and Rays fans know all too well what I’m talking about there. Buehler wasn’t in Keith Law”s final top 100 prospects back in 2012 and he ranked 50th on Baseball America’s list. Here, however, Buehler came in at 28th with the following text accompaniment:
28. RHP Walker Buehler (Henry Clay HS, Kentucky): classic case of a plus pitchability arm who one day wakes up to big league quality stuff; his upper-80s FB (91-92 peak) has jumped to a steady 90-94, peaking 95-96; best offsped pitch is an above-average 76-78 CB with plus upside, one of the best of its kind in the class – even more effective when he throws it a little harder (78-82); third pitch is a straight CU with tumble that at times is his best offering; hardly going out on a limb, but Buehler is one of my favorite prep arms in this year’s class: smarts, three big league pitches, and repeatable mechanics all add up to a potential quality big league starter; 6-1, 165 pounds
Since then all Buehler has done is dominate the SEC, add a second plus breaking ball (80-85 SL) and further refined his mechanics, command, and pitchability. The only thing he hasn’t done since his high school days is grow. For some teams this could present a problem, but I don’t see anything in his delivery (to say nothing of his awesome athleticism) to knock him for standing in at his present height and weight of 6-1, 160 pounds. What stands out to me above all else about Buehler’s progression over the years is the first line in the quoted section above. Young pitchers are probably too easily categorized as “pitchers” or “throwers” at an early age. Being a pitcher who is called a pitcher should not be newsworthy, but many use it as a shorthand for praising a guy’s command, smarts, and, at times, offspeed stuff while knocking his velocity. Calling a pitcher a thrower has a more obvious pejorative tone; throwers can do just that (often quite hard), but do so without understanding many of the nuances of what it truly takes to get more advanced hitters out. My favorite pitching prospects are the guys who don’t have the knockout fastballs at an early age, but develop it in their late-teens. Throwing in the mid- to upper-80s is more than enough to get even most good high school hitters out, but short fastballs like that get exposed against bigger programs and on the showcase circuit. When a stacked lineup is staring you in the face, you have to learn to be crafty and think along with the hitters by putting emphasis on the art of changing speeds, pitching backwards (more opportunities to throw offspeed stuff), and relying on refining command. If you just so happen to one day wake up and find your arm is now capable of throwing 91 MPH, then 93 MPH, then finally mid-90s heat, so much the better. The skills that you relied on before won’t disappear; if you use it wisely, you’ve only added another weapon to your arsenal.
Beyond his smarts, pitchability, command, athleticism, and groundball tendencies, Buehler sticks out to me for having two legitimate, distinct above-average to plus breaking balls. They can run into each other at times — I’ve seen an unhealthy amount of baseball in my life and consider myself reasonably bright, but distinguishing between curves, sliders, and even cutters isn’t a personal strength — especially when they are both in the low-80 MPH range, but there’s enough separation between his mostly upper-70s curve (77-83, really) and his “hard CB” from high school (then 78-82) that is now a fully formed 80-85 slider that both get swings and misses. I will say that in my experience viewing him and talking to smarter people who have seen him way more, the two pitches don’t often seem to be in that above-average to plus range within the same game. I’d like to chart a few of his starts to test the validity of this claim, but it’s been said to me that he’ll figure out which breaking ball is working early in the game and then lean on it almost exclusively as his breaker of choice throughout the game. The ability to spin two quality breaking balls on top of an impressive fastball (90-94, 96 peak) and average mid-80s sinking changeup that flashes much better on top of all of Buehler’s previous strengths and two arguable weaknesses (size and inconsistencies with his breaking balls) make him a difficult pitcher to find an instructive comparable player for. Some of the names I’ve tossed out as ceiling comparisons over the past few years include Roy Oswalt, Javier Vazquez, and Julio Teheran. All of those work and don’t work for various reasons, I think. I also think I like Buehler so much as a prospect that I’m cool with dropping the Zack Greinke with a harder curve comp that’s been on my mind with him for a while now. It’s not meant to be a comparison we all get crazy carried away with — Greinke was already in the big leagues at Buehler’s current age, after all — but in terms of the total present prospect package of stuff, pitchability, build, and frame, I think it works very well.
Fulmer has had almost as much success as Buehler through two college seasons with their only significant difference coming in the former’s more common bouts of wildness. It’s not the kind of wildness that raises any kind of red flags, but rather something that falls somewhere between the typical developmental path of an electric young arm and the potential start of a long, fruitful run of being “effectively wild” from now until the day he retires. That aside, the biggest real question about Fulmer will be future big league role. I’d like to think I’ve long shown a willingness to allow players to play themselves from bigger roles (starting, up-the-middle defensive spots, etc.) to smaller roles, so it should be no shock that I’d run Fulmer out as a starter for as long as he shows he is capable of holding down the job in pro ball. A big part of believing in Fulmer as a starter is the fact that his stuff does not appear to appreciably suffer in longer outings. He has the three pitches he’ll need to go through lineups multiple times (mid-90s FB, honest 99 peak; plus low-80s breaking ball; mid-80s changeup with promise) and more than enough deception in his delivery to make him a tough matchup in almost any circumstance. There is some fair cause for concern that his delivery — I’m not expert on on these things and I mostly only care that it’s repeatable, but it’s rough enough that even I can see what the fuss is about — won’t allow him to hold up throwing 200+ innings a season. This isn’t the only reason why Buehler is universally regarded as the better prospect (see the silly amount of fawning I do over him above for more), but it’s a big one. Not all drafts are created equal, but I have a hard time imagining Fulmer falling too far on draft day one year after a very similar pitcher in Grant Holmes went 22nd overall.
Ferguson is sometimes the forgotten man when people discuss Vanderbilt’s awesome pitching. On just about any other staff in the country he’d be the unquestioned Friday night starter. The greater likelihood that he’ll remain in a rotation has me wondering if we’ll all look back on the pre-season draft rankings and wonder how he fell below Fulmer. I’m not sure I’m gutsy enough to make that call right now, but it’s super close. If Ferguson shows a better changeup (currently interesting but undeniably raw) than he has to date, I think the bandwagon will get very full, very quickly. He presently throws gas just like Buehler and Fulmer (90-95, 97 peak) with a pair of above-average breaking balls in his own right (above-average low- to mid-80s cut-SL and a mid- to upper-70s CB). He’s also the most conventionally looking big league starting pitcher of the trio (6-3, 225) with amusingly similar peripherals through two seasons, especially when looked through a park/schedule adjusted prism (7.71 K/9 and 3.51 BB/9 in year one; 7.60 K/9 and 3.51 BB/9 last year). Big, strong, and consistent with good stuff from a top flight program known for churning out good big league pitchers? What’s not to like? If he misses a few more bats and shows a little something extra with the changeup, he’s an easy first rounder.
Swanson broke out last season in a big, big way. His first real test at the college level was hardly a test at all as he hit .333/.411/.475 with 37 BB and 39 K in 282 AB. He also added 22 steals in 27 attempts for good measure. The numbers obviously speak for themselves, but it’s still nice when the scouting reports back it up. Swanson can really play. I’ll indirectly piggyback a bit on Baseball America’s Trea Turner (with less speed) comp and reuse one of my comps for Turner last year for Swanson. It actually fits a lot better now, so I don’t feel too bad going to the Brett Gardner well in back-to-back drafts. The package of athleticism, speed, defensive upside at a critical up-the-middle spot with an above-average hit tool and average-ish power (little less, probably) works out to a consistently above-average regular with the chance for stardom — certainly flashes of it — within reach.
There’s a bit of a gap between Vanderbilt’s (draft) class of 2015 and Wiseman, but that speaks to the strength of having four likely first round picks more so than any major deficits in Wiseman’s game. I’ve run into two interesting schools of thought about Wiseman while putting this together. The first, and I’ll admit that this was my initial view from the start, is that he’s still more tools than skills right now. The tools are quite strong, but the fact that they haven’t turned into the skills many expected by now gives some pause. Still, those tools that were clear to almost all going back to his high school days are still real and still worth getting excited about. The breakout could come any day now for him and when it does we’ll be looking at a potential first-division regular in the outfield. The opposing view believes that Wiseman’s development has gone as scripted and what we’re seeing right now is more or less what we’re going to get with him. He’s a great athlete and a far more cerebral hitter than given credit, but the tools were overstated across the board at the onset of his amateur career and now we’re seeing expectations for him correcting themselves based on what he really is. There really are no pluses in his game and no carrying tool that will help him rise above his future fourth outfielder station. I’m a believer that it’s always wise to bet on athletes having the light bulb turn on before too long, so count me in as still leaning closer to the former (and my original) position. I do understand the concerns about Wiseman potentially topping out as a “tweener” outfield prospect — he hasn’t shown the power yet to work in a corner, but that’s where he’s clearly best defensively — so going on the first day might be off the table. He’s still an intriguing blend of production (good, not mind-blowing) and tools (same) who could wind up a relative bargain if he slips much later than that. I could see him both being ranked and drafted in the same area that I had him listed (110th overall) out of Buckingham Browne & Nichols.
In any event, I don’t think Wiseman’s viewed by many as quite the prospect he was back in high school and a good part of that was the way many — me included — viewed his rawness, age, and relative inexperience as a New England high school product as positives. We all are guilty of assuming there are concretely meaningful patterns we can expect from prospect development and that all young players will continue to get better with age and experience. Development is not linear and can be wildly unpredictable. Some guys are as good as they are going to get at 17 while others don’t figure it out (unfortunately) until way after their physical peak. This speaks to the heart of what makes assessing and drafting amateurs so much fun. We’re all just trying to gather as much information on as many players as possible and then making the best possible guesses as to what we’ll wind up with.
Vanderbilt has good players beyond their special top five. rJR 1B Zander Wiel’s success in limited at bats in 2013 had me really excited to see what he could do with steady playing time in 2014. The results were more good than great, but I remain encouraged about his future. Like Wiseman, toolsy JR 3B Xavier Turner has held his own (and more, at times) in two years as a mainstay in the Commodores lineup. His offensive skill set doesn’t necessarily scream professional third baseman (more speed and gap power at present), but that doesn’t mean it won’t play at the next level. Also like Wiseman, I’d stick with Turner this year because it never hurts to bet on athleticism. He’s an elite athlete with the kind of strength and speed blend even a fine physical specimen such as myself can appreciate. It’s awful hard to top a college left side of the infield of Swanson and Turner…hopefully there’s some good news coming regarding the latter’s suspension that will make that infield a reality.
1/20/15 EDIT: SO LHP John Kilichowski is eligible for this year’s draft. FR 3B/SS Will Toffey is eligible for next year’s draft.
The Baseball Draft Report 