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Top Ten College Outfielders and Mystery Prospect Comparison
My goal is to have the complete list of college outfield prospect rankings out by next week, but for now here is a quick look at how the top ten will probably shake out. There might be some movement within each tier, but I’m pretty happy with the players that make up each grouping.
- Tier 1: Connecticut JR OF George Springer – South Carolina JR OF Jackie Bradley – Miami-Dade CC SO OF Brian Goodwin
- Tier 2: Louisiana State JR OF Mikie Mahtook – Kansas State JR OF Nick Martini – Alabama JR OF Taylor Dugas
- Tier 3: Valparaiso JR OF Kyle Gaedele – Texas SO OF Cohl Walla – Clemson JR OF Will Lamb – Indiana JR OF Alex Dickerson
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I’m also trying to get back into the habit of doing more organic writing here on the site. I love putting together rankings because it gives me the opportunity to research and compile notes on hundreds of prospects from around the country, but, let’s be honest, rankings alone don’t make for interesting reading. Because I’ve spent weeks immersed in the world of college outfielders, what better way to start my stream of consciousness ramblings than with a quick mystery player comparison between two highly regarded college outfield prospects? I like this particular comparison because the two prospects are so different stylistically, yet similarly rated by many. I also like the comparison because both players seem to really understand their own strengths and weaknesses really well and, subsequently, do what they do well really, really well.
- Player A: potential plus hit tool; line drive machine; gap power upside; leadoff man profile with above-average speed and good plate discipline; solid defender in CF; average at best throwing arm that grades out higher in terms of accuracy than strength; good track record with wood; great athlete with a pro body; 6-2, 175 pounds
Half Glass Full: Capable center fielder and irritating (to the opposition, naturally) leadoff man with double digit home run pop
Half Glass Empty: Modest power upside fails to manifest professionally; as a result, overall hit tool and plate discipline suffer against professional pitching
- Player B: great physical strength; plus raw power; plus bat speed; average speed; average arm; good range in a corner; pitch recognition, or lack thereof, could make or break him; 6-2, 195 pounds
Half Glass Full: Pitch recognition and overall approach at plate improves to the point his plus power allows him blossom as an above-average everyday corner outfielder
Half Glass Empty: Awesome power goes to waste as 4A slugger due to Jeff Francoeur-level plate discipline
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1. Can you guess the prospects? Neither are listed in the top ten above, by the way…
2. Which prospect do you prefer? Speed, defense, and patience? Or brute strength and plus raw power?
3. Forced to choose, would you rather have tiger’s blood or Adonis DNA? There is only one correct answer to this one…
College Outfielders
Things have been relatively quiet around here of late because, genius that I am, I decided to leave the largest player groupings — outfield and pitching — as the last set of 2011 college prospect rankings. I’m going on two solid weeks right now of configuring just the outfield list and I’m happy to finally announce the rankings will be published shortly. In the meantime, some quick figures that show just how crazy it is paring down the crowded college outfield player pool…
- Current Word Document size: 5,740 words, or 18 pages in size 14 font (nice and big so I can view three pages at once at 50% zoom)
- Current number of players listed: 225, not counting the handful of junior college/small school guys I need more info on
Meta-posts like this where I talk about how much work I’ve been putting in on a ranking without actually delivering any worthwhile content are extremely obnoxious. I’m sorry. To begin to make amends, here’s an extremely (extremely) unfinished look at the prospects that rank at certain random benchmark spots on the list. I’ll use the numbers retired by the Detroit Lions (7, 20, 22, 37, 56, 85) to serve this purpose. In order, a special thanks to Dutch Clark, Barry Sanders, Bobby Layne, Doak Walker, Joe Schmidt, and Chuck Hughes for apparently being so damn good at football.
7. Clemson JR OF Will Lamb
20. TCU JR OF Brance Rivera
22. Miami SO OF Zeke DeVoss
37. Western Kentucky JR OF Kes Carter
56. Southern JR OF Rodarrick Jones
85. Stetson JR OF Spencer Theisen
2011 Quick Draft Thoughts – Clemson Tigers
1. Clemson’s 2008 group of signees included Kevin Brady, David Haselden, Will Lamb, Brad Miller, Scott Weismann, Jason Stolz, Ethan Martin, and Chris Dwyer. I realize you can do that with the recruiting class of a major college program almost any year, but something about this class intrigued me. A college rotation of Dwyer, Martin (who I loved as a high school prospect), and Brady would have been fun.
2. SO RHP Kevin Brady confounds me. He’s good, no doubt, but I’m not yet sure how good. I’ve heard some smart people put forth convincing arguments against Brady as a premium draft arm (not enough movement on fastball, inconsistent slider, curve and change too far behind fastball/slider), but I’m leaning towards the thought that Brady is better than that. How good is it? I’m thinking really, really good (dominating numbers, good command of 90-92 FB that touches 94-95, good slider when he has it working, improving changeup) with the potential to vault into the top three rounds with a big spring.
3. The biggest reason why it took me so long to finish writing about Clemson is Brad Miller. See, I’m a big fan of his and I think he’s one of the best middle infield prospects in this year’s draft. Or that’s what I thought, at least. I thought he was one of the best and was going to write that, but then I figured, hey, it’s my site so why not put off finishing up the Clemson team report for a day while I put together my list of top college middle infield prospects. That way I can make a declarative statement about Brad Miller’s place on my personal middle infield rankings. As of now, I have Miller as college baseball’s best shortstop prospect and somewhere in the top three (with Kolten Wong and Levi Michael) when stacked against all college middle infielders.
Early 2011 Draft Guesses
The aforementioned Kevin Brady isn’t the only Clemson draft-eligible sophomore of note. SO LHP Joseph Moorfield hasn’t gotten a lot of notice outside of Pickens County, but lefties with low-90s and four usable pitches don’t often get overlooked for long. His control is probably his biggest question mark right now; it’ll probably be the key in determining his role for the upcoming season which in turn could be the key in determining his 2011 draft stock. JR RHP Scott Weismann is a big favorite of mine because of his strong power arsenal that I think will really play up pitching out of the bullpen professionally. From a filthy sinking low-90s fastball to a hard low-80s slider, every pitch that Weismann throws moves. Throw in a good splitter and you’ve got yourself a prospect to watch. Weismann might get downgraded by some teams turned off by classic short righthanded pitcher bias, but his stuff plays. As one of the smartest amateur pitchers you’d ever hope to see, JR RHP David Haselden has a chance to make a move this spring. I haven’t personally seen him throw, but I’ve heard his offspeed stuff is strong and his fastball command is even stronger. Interested in learning more about him in the coming months.
It’s a shame there are a lot more interesting outfielders to sort through than shortstops or else I would be able to make some kind of declaration about JR OF/LHP Will Lamb. I don’t know where he’ll eventual rank when compared to a pretty deep crop of college outfielders, but I do know it will darn high. He’s big and strong enough to drive balls out without necessarily having to try (always a good thing to look for in a young hitter), he has elite range and first step quickness in the outfield, and his arm is a legitimate weapon in center. The word is that the majority of scouts have told him they prefer his upside on the mound (6-5 projectable lefties with low-90s velocity and two present average secondary pitches), but I still like his upside as a position player. I think he’s got a chance to be this year’s Brett Eibner. If only SR OF Jeff Schaus pitched, he’d be Clemson’s carbon copy of Florida State’s Mike McGee, a senior who consistently produces at a level greater than the sum of his tools. There are a lot of averages in a Schaus scouting report — power and speed, to name two — but he’s a gifted natural hitter with a smart approach at the plate who possesses just enough of every relevant tool to remain intriguing. There’s definite fourth outfielder potential here.
JR 3B Jason Stolz has a strong reputation in scouting circles despite having no standout tools (his arm and defensive versatility are probably his two best attributes) and poor college production to this point. JR C Phil Pohl actually reminds me a lot of a catching version of Stolz; great promise once upon a time, but now relegated to backup duty. Either prospect could be drafted, but I think neither will leave Clemson until after their senior seasons. SR OF Addison Johnson is out until early 2011 with a torn ACL, a injury that is really a tough blow for a speed guy to take. Fellow SR OF Chris Epps is a nice college leadoff hitter, but his pro profile is a mess. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m not sure even a fifty round draft will find room for a fast (but not plus) runner who is limited to a leftfield because of a weak arm and poor outfield instincts without power.
JR 3B John Hinson is a prospect I spent a lot of time thinking about last summer after he was drafted by the Phillies. Here’s some of what I said back then: Hinson was a highly touted prospect out of high school who was considered advanced enough after his freshman year to be asked to play for Hyannis in the Cape Cod League. Back surgery cost him all of his 2009 season, but the fully recovered version of Hinson put up a 2010 statistical line that reads a lot like Pittsburgh’s Joe Leonard’s work this season. A plus hit tool combined with above-average speed and power will get you far professionally, but people smarter than myself that I talked with told me some teams question his ability to play any one particular spot in the infield with the consistency needed of a regular. Based on the limited looks of Hinson that I’ve seen, I can’t say that I necessarily agree with that assessment, but his defensive skillset (good athlete, iffy arm) may make him better suited for second base than third. At either spot, he’s got the bat to make him a potential regular with a couple breaks along the way.
Early 2011 Draft Guesses…for real this time
Miller, Lamb, and Brady should be early round selections. Weismann, Schaus, and Hinson are also locks to get taken. After that, things aren’t so clear. I like Moorefield, but I’m not so sure about him to put him with the locks. Stolz and Pohl are both solidly in the maybe pile at this point with longer shots like Johnson, Epps, and Haselden next up. I’m putting fictional money on Miller, Lamb, Brady, Weismann, Schaus, Hinson, Stolz, and Pohl even though I prefer Moorefield as a prospect over the last two names on the list.