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2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – Big 12

On Sheldon Neuse before the season…

Neuse could still fulfill the promise many (myself included) saw in him during his excellent freshman season back when he looked like a potential Gold Glove defender at third with the kind of bat you’d happily stick in the middle of the order. He could also get more of a look this spring on the mound where he can properly put his mid-90s heat and promising pair of secondary offerings (SL, CU) to use. Or he could have something of a repeat of his 2015 season leaving us unsure how good he really is and thinking of him more of a second to fifth round project (a super talented one, mind you) than a first round prospect.

So far, so good on the whole fulfilling that promise thing: Neuse has hit .383/.483/.692 through 32 games with 23 BB/26 and 8/9 SB. On the mound, he’s been just as good: 16 K in 16.2 IP of 1.62 ERA ball. He’s now firmly back on the first round bubble and one of this draft’s quintessential first round talents that might get squeezed out of the top thirty or so picks because of the impressive depth at the top of this class.

There are plenty of candidates to wind up as the second highest drafted position player from the Big 12 come June. Ryan Sluder seemed primed to turn a big corner in his draft year, but it hasn’t happened for him. He still has a classic right fielder tool set – legit plus raw power, above-average to plus arm strength, a potent speed/strength blend – but his overly aggressive approach, which for all the world looked to be improving last season, holds him back. Then there’s his teammate with the Cowboys, Donnie Walton. Walton is pretty much exactly what you’d expect out of the son of a coach: there’s nothing flashy to his game, but he ably fields his position, runs well, and can make just about all the throws from short. It might be a utility player profile more so than a future regular ceiling, but it’s relatively safe and well worth a top ten round pick.

A pair of catchers could also wind up at or near the top of the Big 12 hitter rankings by the end of the season. I really, really like Michael Tinsley, a highly athletic lefthanded bat with impressive wheels and solid pop. Tres Barrera’s ordinary start – his approach has taken a big step back – knocks him down from his clear perch in the two spot to closer to the middle of the pack. Despite seeing some time at third base this year for the Longhorns, I still like him behind the plate over the long haul. His above-average raw power keeps him in the top ten round mix despite the aforementioned backslide in approach.

Tyler Neslony, the top returning position player prospect in the conference per this very site (he peaked at third CJ Hinojosa and Ben Johnson last year), is hurt by the strong likelihood that he’ll be confined to the corners as a pro. I still like his power and plate discipline combination as a mid- to late-round senior sign. Scouts who saw a lot of him during his awesome sophomore season will likely give him more of the benefit of the doubt than those in the national media who consider going fifty deep with a draft list an exhausting task.

Elliott Barzilli is off to a scorching start. He’s a fine athlete and a versatile defender in the infield. He’s as much of a threat of any of these players to follow Neuse off the board. Cory Raley is another extremely athletic infielder who can play any spot on the diamond. Raley’s start has not been nearly as impressive as Barzilli’s, but his speed and pop are awfully intriguing. When it comes to straight draft intrigue, few players in this class can match Oklahoma outfielder Cody Thomas. With Thomas you’d essentially be drafting a high school player in terms of experience and present skill levels, but the upside is very real. Size, athleticism, power, arm strength, speed…if he can hit, a significant if, then he’s a potential monster.

Jake Scudder, Jack Flansburg, and Ryan Merrill all stand out as players who will see big jumps on the next (and final) version of these rankings. I’m looking forward to learning more about all three.

I love the Big 12 pitchers this year because I’m a guy talking to himself in front of a computer and not one of the thirty scouting directors charged with actually finding an arm from this conference you’d feel confident about taking commensurate with their talent. There’s uncertainty everywhere you turn. Alec Hansen, who remains the best pitching prospect in the conference despite a dreadful first half of the season, exemplifies the boom/bust nature of the Big 12’s pitching. In fact, it even goes beyond boom/bust; the conference is loaded with players with huge stuff but limited track records and little to no extended periods of success.

Mitchell Traver has yet to pitch in 2016. Garrett Williams has barely pitched. Same for Chandler Eden. Jake Elliott and Ryan Moseley have both drastically underperformed. You could argue that my rankings are nonsense – again, these are more about the larger body of work and long-term projection than two months’ worth of 2016 results – but the list from one to six goes bad, injured, injured, good (thank you, Trey Cobb), injured, and bad. All of these players have their merits, of course. Traver is up to 96 with serious sink and a plus low- to mid-80s slider. Williams is a four-pitch lefty with an outstanding curve and one of the more unusually effective hard changeups in the college game. Eden can be effectively wild when actually on the mound. His plus fastball (90-95, 97 peak) and above-average to plus breaking ball (with an average change that could help convince some teams that he’s a starter professionally) are good enough to make hitters very uncomfortable. I had some friends come into the season armed and ready with a Jake Elliott is the better long-term prospect than Alec Hansen take. That talk has quieted down as Elliott’s start has just about equaled Hansen’s…and not in a good way. His arm talent is still really impressive: 86-92 FB (94 peak), average 75-80 breaking ball, and a 77-80 change that borders on plus.

The disappointments at the top of this class have opened the door for a few solid yet unspectacular names to barge through. There’s something to be said for consistently productive pitchers, after all. Daniel Castano is a lefthander with size, some present velocity (87-92), and a pair of offspeed pitches (78-83 CU and 72-76 CB) that could be average or better pitches at the pro level. Thomas Hatch isn’t a lefthander and doesn’t have that size, but he possesses more fastball (88-94, up to 96) and a similarly impressive mix of offspeed stuff (78-82 CU, 77-82 SL, 85-88 cutter). Brian Howard is an impossibly long and lean man (6-9, 185) who pounds the strike zone with a solid fastball (87-92, 94 peak) and cut-slider (anywhere from 81-88, flashes plus when firmer) combination that gets on hitters quick. Morgan Cooper appears to have bounced back nicely from the Tommy John surgery that cost him all of last season. He’s got the frame, command, and requisite three pitches (88-93 FB, low-70s CB that flashes plus, solid CU) to stick in a pro rotation.

Hitters

  1. Oklahoma JR 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse
  2. Kansas JR C Michael Tinsley
  3. Oklahoma State JR OF Ryan Sluder
  4. Oklahoma State SR SS/2B Donnie Walton
  5. Texas JR C/3B Tres Barrera
  6. TCU JR 3B/SS Elliott Barzilli
  7. Texas Tech SR OF Tyler Neslony
  8. Texas Tech rJR SS/2B Cory Raley
  9. Texas Tech JR OF Stephen Smith
  10. Baylor JR OF Darryn Sheppard
  11. Kansas JR OF Joven Afenir
  12. Oklahoma JR OF Cody Thomas
  13. Texas Tech SR 1B Eric Gutierrez
  14. Oklahoma State JR 1B/OF Dustin Williams
  15. Texas rSO SS/3B Bret Boswell
  16. Baylor rJR C Matt Menard
  17. Baylor rSO OF/LHP Kameron Esthay
  18. Kansas State JR 1B Jake Scudder
  19. Oklahoma JR 2B/3B Jack Flansburg
  20. Kansas rJR 1B Marcus Wheeler
  21. TCU JR SS Ryan Merrill
  22. Kansas State SR SS Tyler Wolfe
  23. Kansas State SR C Tyler Moore
  24. Texas JR OF/3B Zane Gurwitz
  25. Kansas SR 2B/SS Colby Wright
  26. TCU SR OF Nolan Brown
  27. Oklahoma SR OF Hunter Haley
  28. Kansas rSR OF Joe Moroney
  29. Oklahoma State rSO 3B Andrew Rosa
  30. Baylor SR 2B/3B West Tunnell
  31. Baylor JR C/1B Aaron Dodson
  32. Texas JR 1B/RHP Kacy Clemens
  33. TCU SR OF Dane Steinhagen
  34. Texas Tech rJR C Kholeton Sanchez
  35. TCU JR 2B Mason Hesse
  36. Oklahoma State SR OF Corey Hassell
  37. Oklahoma JR C Renae Martinez
  38. TCU JR 3B/2B Cam Warner
  39. West Virginia JR 1B/RHP Jackson Cramer
  40. West Virginia rSR OF KC Huth
  41. Texas Tech JR OF Anthony Lyons
  42. Kansas SR 2B/SS Tommy Mirabelli
  43. Kansas State rJR 2B/SS Jake Wodtke
  44. Baylor SR 2B/SS Justin Arrington
  45. Kansas State rJR 3B/C Steve Serratore
  46. Oklahoma State SR 2B Kevin Bradley
  47. Kansas State SR OF Clayton Dalrymple
  48. Texas Tech SR C Tyler Floyd
  49. Kansas rSR OF Steve Goldstein

Pitchers

  1. Oklahoma JR RHP Alec Hansen
  2. TCU rJR RHP Mitchell Traver
  3. Oklahoma State JR LHP Garrett Williams
  4. Oklahoma State JR RHP Trey Cobb
  5. Texas Tech JR RHP Chandler Eden
  6. Oklahoma JR RHP Jake Elliott
  7. Baylor JR LHP Daniel Castano
  8. Oklahoma State JR RHP Thomas Hatch
  9. Texas Tech JR RHP Ryan Moseley
  10. Oklahoma State JR RHP Remey Reed
  11. TCU JR RHP Brian Howard
  12. Texas rSO RHP Morgan Cooper
  13. Oklahoma State JR RHP Tyler Buffett
  14. TCU rSO LHP Ryan Burnett
  15. Baylor JR RHP Drew Tolson
  16. TCU rJR RHP Brian Trieglaff
  17. Oklahoma State rSR RHP/OF Conor Costello
  18. TCU JR RHP Mitch Sewald
  19. TCU JR LHP Rex Hill
  20. Texas Tech JR LHP Ty Damron
  21. Oklahoma State SR RHP Michael Mertz
  22. West Virginia rSO RHP Nick Wernke
  23. West Virginia SR RHP Blake Smith
  24. Oklahoma State JR RHP Blake Battenfield
  25. West Virginia SR RHP Jeff Hardy
  26. Kansas JR RHP Sean Rackoski
  27. West Virginia JR RHP Chad Donato
  28. Texas Tech JR LHP Hayden Howard
  29. Texas SR LHP Ty Culbreth
  30. Texas JR LHP Josh Sawyer
  31. TCU SR RHP Preston Guillory
  32. Kansas State rJR RHP Colton Kalmus
  33. Kansas SR RHP Hayden Edwards
  34. Oklahoma SR RHP Keaton Hernandez
  35. Kansas State SR RHP Levi MaVorhis
  36. Texas Tech SR RHP Dalton Brown
  37. Texas Tech JR LHP Dylan Dusek
  38. Oklahoma State rSO LHP Matt Wilson
  39. Oklahoma JR LHP Austin Kerns
  40. Kansas State JR LHP Jordan Floyd
  41. Oklahoma State SR LHP Alex Hackerott
  42. Kansas rSO RHP Jon Hander
  43. Kansas JR RHP Stephen Villines
  44. West Virginia rSR LHP Ross Vance
  45. Texas JR LHP Jon Malmin
  46. Texas SR LHP Travis Duke
  47. Kansas State SR RHP Corey Fischer
  48. Kansas SR LHP Ben Krauth
  49. Kansas State rSR RHP Lucas Benenati

Baylor

JR LHP Daniel Castano (2016)
JR RHP Drew Tolson (2016)
JR RHP Nick Lewis (2016)
JR RHP Alex Phillips (2016)
rSO OF/LHP Kameron Esthay (2016)
SR 2B/3B West Tunnell (2016)
SR 2B/SS Justin Arrington (2016)
rJR C Matt Menard (2016)
rJR 3B Ben Carl (2016)
JR OF Darryn Sheppard (2016)
JR C/1B Aaron Dodson (2016)
rSO C/1B Cameron Miller (2016)
SO OF Levi Gilcrease (2017)
SO 3B Jonathan Ducoff (2017)
FR RHP Andrew McInvale (2018)
FR 2B Josh Bissonette (2018)

High Priority Follows: Daniel Castano, Drew Tolson, Kameron Esthay, West Tunnell, Justin Arrington, Matt Menard, Darryn Sheppard, Aaron Dodson, Cameron Miller

Kansas

JR RHP Sean Rackoski (2016)
SR RHP Hayden Edwards (2016)
SR LHP Ben Krauth (2016)
rSO RHP Jon Hander (2016)
JR RHP Stephen Villines (2016)
SR RHP Sam Gilbert (2016)
JR RHP Tyler Davis (2016)
JR OF Joven Afenir (2016)
rSR OF Joe Moroney (2016)
rSR OF Steve Goldstein (2016)
SR 2B/SS Colby Wright (2016)
SR 2B/SS Tommy Mirabelli (2016)
SR 1B/3B Ryan Pidhaichuk (2016)
rJR 1B Marcus Wheeler (2016)
JR C Michael Tinsley (2016)
SO LHP Blake Weiman (2017)
SO LHP Ryan Jackson (2017)
SO RHP Ryan Ralston (2017)
SO SS/3B Matt McLaughlin (2017)
SO 1B Owen Taylor (2017)
SO C TJ Martin (2017)
FR RHP Jackson Goddard (2018)
FR RHP Zach Leban (2018)
FR INF Ty Denzer (2018)
FR OF Devin Foyle (2018)
FR 3B David Kyriacou (2018)

High Priority Follows: Sean Rackoski, Hayden Edwards, Ben Krauth, Jon Hander, Stephen Villines, Joven Afenir, Joe Moroney, Steve Goldstein, Colby Wright, Tommy Mirabelli, Marcus Wheeler, Michael Tinsley

Kansas State

rSR RHP Lucas Benenati (2016)
rJR RHP Colton Kalmus (2016)
SR RHP Corey Fischer (2016)
SR RHP Levi MaVorhis (2016)
JR LHP Jordan Floyd (2016)
SR RHP Brandon Erickson (2016)
SR OF Clayton Dalrymple (2016)
rJR 2B/SS Jake Wodtke (2016)
SR SS Tyler Wolfe (2016)
JR 1B Jake Scudder (2016)
rJR 3B/C Steve Serratore (2016)
SR C Tyler Moore (2016)
SR OF Danny Krause (2016)
FR RHP John Boushelle (2018)
FR RHP Jacob Ruder (2018)
FR C Josh Rolette (2018)

High Priority Follows: Lucas Benenati, Colton Kalmus, Corey Fischer, Levi MaVorhis, Jordan Floyd, Clayton Dalrymple, Jake Wodtke, Tyler Wolfe, Jake Scudder, Steve Serratore, Tyler Moore

Oklahoma

JR RHP Alec Hansen (2016)
JR RHP Jake Elliott (2016)
SR RHP Keaton Hernandez (2016)
JR LHP Austin Kerns (2016)
JR 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse (2016)
SR OF Hunter Haley (2016)
JR 1B Austin O’Brien (2016)
SR 1B/OF Alex Wise (2016)
JR C Renae Martinez (2016)
JR OF Cody Thomas (2016)
JR 2B/3B Jack Flansburg (2016)
SO 3B Quin Walbergh (2017)
SO 2B Kyle Mendenhall (2017)
FR RHP Jake Irvin (2018)
FR RHP Kyle Tyler (2018)
FR RHP Austin Hansen (2018)
FR RHP Connor Berry (2018)
FR RHP/1B Chris Andritsos (2018)
FR RHP/1B Ryan Madden (2018)
FR INF/RHP Thomas Hughes (2018)
FR C Domenic DeRenzo (2018)
FR OF Steele Walker (2018)
FR INF Cade Harris (2018)
FR 2B/SS Kyler Murray (2018)
FR C/OF Hunter Southerland (2018)

High Priority Follows: Alec Hansen, Jake Elliott, Keaton Hernandez, Austin Kerns, Sheldon Neuse, Hunter Haley, Renae Martinez, Cody Thomas, Jack Flansburg

Just five second year players and four in their last year of eligibility

Oklahoma State

rSR RHP/OF Conor Costello (2016)
JR RHP Remey Reed (2016)
JR LHP Garrett Williams (2016)
SR RHP Michael Mertz (2016)
JR RHP Tyler Buffett (2016)
JR RHP Trey Cobb (2016)
JR RHP Thomas Hatch (2016)
JR RHP Blake Battenfield (2016)
SR LHP Alex Hackerott (2016)
rSO LHP Matt Wilson (2016)
SR SS/2B Donnie Walton (2016)
JR OF Ryan Sluder (2016)
JR 1B/OF Dustin Williams (2016)
SR OF Corey Hassell (2016)
SR 2B Kevin Bradley (2016)
JR 2B JR Davis (2016)
JR C Collin Theroux (2016)
SR 3B/2B David Petrino (2016)
rSO 3B Andrew Rosa (2016)
SO LHP/OF Garrett McCain (2017)
SO 3B/1B Garrett Benge (2017)
SO SS/2B Jacob Chappell (2017)
SO OF Jon Littell (2017)
SO 1B Mason O’Brien (2017)
FR RHP Jensen Elliott (2018)
FR RHP Ben Leeper (2018)
FR C Collin Simpson (2018)

High Priority Follows: Conor Costello, Remey Reed, Garrett Williams, Michael Mertz, Tyler Buffett, Trey Cobb, Thomas Hatch, Blake Battenfield, Alex Hackerott, Matt Wilson, Donnie Walton, Ryan Sluder, Dustin Williams, Corey Hassell, Kevin Bradley, Collin Theroux, David Petrino, Andrew Rosa

Texas Christian

rJR RHP Mitchell Traver (2016)
JR RHP Brian Howard (2016)
rSO LHP Ryan Burnett (2016)
SR RHP Preston Guillory (2016)
rJR RHP Brian Trieglaff (2016)
JR RHP Mitch Sewald (2016)
JR LHP Rex Hill (2016)
SR OF Dane Steinhagen (2016)
SR OF Nolan Brown (2016)
JR 3B/SS Elliott Barzilli (2016)
JR 3B/2B Cam Warner (2016)
JR 2B Mason Hesse (2016)
JR SS Ryan Merrill (2016)
SO 1B/OF Connor Wanhanen (2017)
SO C Evan Skoug (2017)
SO C Zack Plunkett (2017)
FR RHP/1B Luken Baker (2018)
FR RHP Devon Roedahl (2018)
FR RHP Sean Wymer (2018)
FR RHP Dalton Brown (2018)
FR LHP Dalton Horton (2018)
FR C/RHP Durbin Feltman (2018)
FR OF Ryan Johnson (2018)
FR OF Joshua Watson (2018)

High Priority Follows: Mitchell Traver, Brian Howard, Ryan Burnett, Preston Guillory, Brian Trieglaff, Mitch Sewald, Rex Hill, Dane Steinhagen, Nolan Brown, Elliott Barzilli, Cam Warner, Mason Hesse, Ryan Merrill

Texas

rSO RHP Morgan Cooper (2016)
JR LHP Josh Sawyer (2016)
SR LHP Ty Culbreth (2016)
SR LHP Travis Duke (2016)
JR LHP Jon Malmin (2016)
JR 1B/RHP Kacy Clemens (2016)
JR C/3B Tres Barrera (2016)
rSO SS/3B Bret Boswell (2016)
JR OF/3B Zane Gurwitz (2016)
SO RHP Kyle Johnston (2017)
SO RHP Connor Mayes (2017)
SO RHP Tyler Schimpf (2017)
SO RHP Jake McKenzie (2017)
rFR RHP Parker Joe Robinson (2017)
FR LHP Nick Kennedy (2017)
SO C Michael Cantu (2017)
SO OF Patrick Mathis (2017)
SO 2B/SS Joe Baker (2017)
SO SS/3B Travis Jones (2017)
rFR OF Kaleb Denny (2017)
FR RHP Nolan Kingham (2018)
FR RHP Beau Ridgeway (2018)
FR RHP/OF Chase Shugart (2018)
FR LHP James Nittoli (2018):
FR RHP Blake Wellmann (2018):
FR 3B/2B Kody Clemens (2018)
FR OF Tyler Rand (2018)
FR 3B Matt Schmidt (2018)
FR OF Brady Harlan (2018)

High Priority Follows: Morgan Cooper, Josh Sawyer, Ty Culbreth, Travis Duke, Jon Malmin, Kacy Clemens, Tres Barrera, Bret Boswell, Zane Gurwitz

Texas Tech

JR RHP Chandler Eden (2016)
JR RHP Ryan Moseley (2016)
JR LHP Dylan Dusek (2016)
JR LHP Ty Damron (2016)
JR RHP Sean Thompson (2016)
JR LHP Hayden Howard (2016)
SR RHP Dalton Brown (2016)
SR OF Tyler Neslony (2016)
SR 1B Eric Gutierrez (2016)
SR OF Zach Davis (2016)
SR C Tyler Floyd (2016)
rJR SS/2B Cory Raley (2016)
rJR C Kholeton Sanchez (2016)
JR 3B Ryan Long (2016)
JR OF Stephen Smith (2016)
JR OF Hunter Hargrove (2016)
JR OF Anthony Lyons (2016)
SO LHP Jacob Patterson (2017)
SO RHP/OF Pat Mahomes (2017)
SO LHP/1B Parker Mushinski (2017)
SO SS/OF Tanner Gardner (2017)
SO SS Orlando Garcia (2017)
SO 2B Michael Davis (2017)
FR LHP Erikson Lanning (2018)
FR RHP Davis Martin (2018)
FR RHP Ty Harpeneau (2018)
FR RHP Ryan Shetter (2018)
FR LHP Steven Gingery (2018)
FR OF Cody Farhat (2018)
FR 2B/SS Trey Ochoa (2018)

High Priority Follows: Chandler Eden, Ryan Moseley, Dylan Dusek, Ty Damron, Hayden Howard, Dalton Brown, Tyler Neslony, Eric Gutierrez, Tyler Floyd, Cory Raley, Kholeton Sanchez, Stephen Smith, Hunter Hargrove, Anthony Lyons

West Virginia

rSO RHP Nick Wernke (2016)
SR RHP Blake Smith (2016)
rSR LHP Ross Vance (2016)
SR RHP Jeff Hardy (2016)
JR RHP Chad Donato (2016)
rSR OF KC Huth (2016)
rSO 2B Shaun Corso (2016)
JR 1B/RHP Jackson Cramer (2016)
SO RHP BJ Myers (2017)
SO RHP Conner Dotson (2017)
SO RHP Shane Ennis (2017)
SO 3B/OF Kyle Davis (2017)
SO OF Caleb Potter (2017)
FR RHP Braden Zarbnisky (2018)
FR RHP Tanner Campbell (2018)
FR RHP Michael Grove (2018)
FR 2B Cole Austin (2018)
FR C Ivan Vera (2018)

High Priority Follows: Nick Wernke, Blake Smith, Ross Vance, Jeff Hardy, Chad Donato, KC Huth, Shaun Corso, Jackson Cramer

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Big 12 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team

Oklahoma JR C Chris Shaw
Texas Tech JR 1B Eric Gutierrez
Kansas JR 2B Colby Wright
Texas JR SS CJ Hinojosa
Oklahoma JR 3B Kolbey Carpenter
Texas JR OF Ben Johnson
Texas Tech JR OF Tyler Neslony
Kansas State SR OF Max Brown

Texas Christian JR LHP Alex Young
Texas Christian JR RHP Riley Ferrell
Texas Christian rSO RHP Mitchell Traver
Oklahoma rJR LHP Adam Choplick
Texas SR RHP Parker French

I normally start with the hitters here because I’m a creature of habit bound by my small-minded attempt at maintaining some semblance of consistent order in an otherwise chaotic world. Today we’re breaking that habit not because of personal growth, but simply because the pitching in the Big 12, most notably at TCU, is worth talking about. I’m way late to the party, I know, but the collection of arms they have in Fort Worth is something to be celebrated.

Oklahoma rJR LHP Adam Choplick is a 6-8, 260 pound lefthander who can reach the mid-90s and for whatever reason very little has been written about him nationally. My contribution to help remedy that: he’s really good. I’d love to know more about Texas SR RHP Parker French’s batted ball data. He has some serious worm-killing stuff (88-94 FB with sink, 97 peak; good 78-84 CU with sink; good mid-80s cut-SL) and has succeeded over the years without striking out a ton of hitters. That last bit is a tad worrisome because pro hitters are not college hitters, but if he can be a 60% groundball guy in the pros then who knows.

Oklahoma State is loaded in its own right with draft-eligible pitchers. rJR RHP/OF Conor Costello has the depth of stuff to start and the athleticism to repeat his delivery through long outings. He’s also a decent enough hitter that letting him start in the National League could lead to some fun at bats. JR RHP Koda Glover uses a 92-95 MPH fastball and intriguing offspeed stuff (no, that’s not just that code that I need more info on him…except I do, which must be an incredible coincidence) to miss bats at a high rate. SO RHP Trey Cobb comes from a star-studded Oklahoma high school class with a sinker/slider mix that should keep him employed for a long time. SR RHP Jon Perrin could be a good bang for your buck as a potential fifth starter/middle relief type available on the cheap come drat day.

I’ve written all that (and my brief note on Choplick, can’t forget that beauty) while totally forgetting I’ve covered Kansas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State already. So, read those if you want more on any of those schools. I think we’ve waited long enough to finally get to the main event that is Texas Christian University. They might not be able to match Vanderbilt in terms of pure ceiling (Buehler and Fulmer are tough to beat), but their balance of star power, hard throwers, polished veterans, and Preston Morrison (he gets his own category) is special.

I think you almost need to find a rare three-headed coin to determine the best pitcher from TCU (and thus the best in the conference) between JR LHP Alex Young, JR RHP Riley Ferrell, and rSO RHP Mitchell Traver. All three guys fit nice neat little archetypes, so they make for a fun and relatively easy group to discuss. Young is the sure-fire starter going forward with a legit classic four-pitch mix (FB, CU, CB, SL), average overall command (above-average FB command, which is nice) and solid athleticism/size. He’s also put up numbers since day one on campus (8.41 K/9 in 2013, 8.37 K/9 in 2014), so there’s not too much need to project some kind of crazy unrealistic future where he turns into something that he’s not. The delta between his ceiling and floor is a tiny one as at his best he’s probably a mid-rotation workhorse and at his worst he figures to be a fifth starter/bullpen weapon. He’d fit in as a really swell second or third pick for a team that would prefer to reach for the stars with their first rounder. He has to be on the short list as one of the “safest” draft prospects or “quickest movers” to the big leagues. Ferrell is the future back end of the bullpen stalwart with closer upside. Like Young (and most big-time college relief prospects) Ferrell has a small gap between his dream scenario (elite closer) and his most likely scenario (good reliever who gets to the big leagues in a hurry). Also like Young, Ferrell’s track record at TCU is impeccable; with a trail of missed bats lying in his wake (11.02 K/9 in 2013, 13.90 K/9 in 2014, 14.50 K/9 so far this year), what you see is what you get. At his best he’s in the upper-90s with the heat and a plus mid-80s slider as the putaway pitch; at his less than best (like, say, on the second half of a back-to-back), his fastball sits low-90s with a slider that flashes but doesn’t have quite the same shape. I think he likely will fall in somewhere between last year’s top two relievers, Nick Burdi (pick 46) and Michael Cederoth (pick 79), were drafted last year. That seems fair for now. Traver is the wild card. His health has held up so far this year and his stuff has been as advertised. If you can’t get excited for a 6-7, 250 pound capable of hitting the mid-90s (90-94, 96 peak) with a plus mid-80s slider and a usable changeup who is finally healthy after missing the better part of two seasons with arm injuries (Tommy John back in 2013 did a number on him), then you’re reading the wrong site. I’ve gotten an interesting range of comps for Traver including a solid starter (Gil Meche), a quality reliever (Nick Masset), and a personal favorite of mine that will go down as a starting member of the what could have been team (Dustin McGowan). I like to occasionally look a comparison cousins, my lame turn of phrase for two prospects connected by being once compared to the same player. The only other time I’ve used a Dustin McGowan comp was when it was mentioned to me last year as a possible outcome for Tyler Kolek. That’s…interesting.

Those are the top names at TCU, but far from the only ones. SO LHP Tyler Alexander is a potential back of the rotation starter who has good stuff with excellent command. rSO RHP Brian Trieglaff can get it up to 94, SR LHP Travis Evans throws three pitches for strikes (including a good breaking ball), and rSR RHP Trey Teakell is an outstanding senior sign with the size (6-5, 175), repertoire (87-92 FB, low-80s CU, upper-70s CB, hard splitter), and, big shocker, sterling track record to warrant top ten round consideration. Finally we get to SR RHP Preston Morrison, college baseball’s weirdest pitcher. Morrison gets results with a mid-80s fastball with serious sink and a variety of offspeed offerings (72-74 CB, 69-74 SL, 76-81 CU) that comes in from a funky sidearm but not quite sidearm angle. I rule nothing out when it comes to Morrison’s pro future, though I think a middle relief ceiling as a guy who gives hitters a totally different look from most big league relievers feels like a fair best case scenario right now.

I’m still holding out hope that we see Oklahoma JR C Chris Shaw get going on the big stage, especially after the tremendous power displays he put on after relatively slow starts the past two seasons in junior college. Truthfully, the question as to whether or not he’ll hit for power isn’t a debate; Shaw’s success or failure going forward will be determined by the adjustments in approach he is able to make. He’s always been a touch too aggressive for his own good, but his power could mask some of the deficiencies he’s shown at lower-levels. More experienced arms will keep exploiting the holes in his approach unless he makes some changes. The power alone still makes him a high follow, but much of the optimism I felt in January has eroded under the rocky shores of reality.

I won’t move Shaw off the top spot out of a combination of wanting to keep these lists consistent with my pre-season thoughts and the prospect of him still having high-level power at the next level, but one of the two Cowboys right behind him would give him a run for his money in a revised ranking. I wish SR C/OF Gage Green was more of a sure thing to stay behind the plate because his offensive game has shown a lot of growth over the years. I also really like SR C Bryan Case, the much better glove of the two, though he’s a tough player to fairly judge due to his lack of playing time. When given a chance to play he’s hit, so I think there’s something there. After a bit more thought, I’d say that Oklahoma JR C Anthony Hermelyn would also be right up there near the top of this list in a re-ranking. His hit tool is interesting, he has a strong defensive profile with no doubts about his arm strength (been clocked as high as 94 MPH off the mound), and his plate discipline is trending in the right direction. All in all, not a bad group of catchers

Texas Tech JR 1B/LHP Eric Gutierrez is one of my favorite power hitters in a class desperately in need of some good ones. Some teams might be turned off than his less than ideal frame (5-10, 205), but so long as he keeps mashing he has a better than average shot to hear his name called in a signable range this June. Kansas State rSR 1B/LHP Shane Conlon has always intrigued me due to his reasonable power upside, average speed, and plus glove. It’s a a fun profile and one I hope we get a chance to keep following in pro ball.

Kansas JR 2B/SS Colby Wright has been a baseball magnet this season (11 HBP in 65 official AB!). I liked his pop, patience, and glove combination coming into the year, and nothing has moved me off that as of yet. I think he’s the best of a lackluster group of Big 12 second basemen. At shortstop it’s still Texas JR SS/3B CJ Hinojosa’s top spot to lose. Much has been written on these very pages already about Hinojosa, so I’ll spare you any needless rehashing and just leave you with my Marco Scuatro comp and call it a day. Almost. We’re now far enough along with the season (20 games in already, time flies), so it’s silly for me to keep pretending that these are strictly previews and not, at least in part, ongoing assessments. The rankings are more or less unchanged from where I stood pre-season, but I do try to pepper the commentary with some updates where applicable. Hinojosa’s slow start (.197/.337/.310) is notable, though it’s a) only 71 AB, and b) not as bad when you look at some underlying numbers (most notably 14 BB/11 K). I’m a little bit concerned and would consider dropping him in future overall prospect rankings, but he still is a good prospect with top five round upside.

Texas Tech rSO SS/2B Cory Raley could be a fascinating utility player prospect with the chance for more. He has the ability to be really good at second and playable at short with enough speed, athleticism, and size to buy him time as he figures out how to hit. So far so good as hitter for Raley this winter, so consider me sufficiently intrigued at what now appears to be a lower than deserved ranking. I also have to mention TCU rJR SS Keaton Jones, a player so good with the glove that he’ll get drafted almost no matter what he does at the plate this spring. The fact that he’s more than holding his own as a hitter for the first time collegiately is icing on the mid-round cake. I’m glad I went with Oklahoma JR 3B Kolbey Carpenter as the conference’s top third baseman. He impressed all those I talked to last spring with his power upside and steady glove, so it’s nice to see him off to a hot start this season. Like second base, however, it’s worth noting that he’s the best of a very thin group of potential future pros. That in no way detracts from his underrated play, of course. I have a good intuitive feeling about Carpenter as a draft prospect.

The outfield is where things get really interesting in the Big 12. I know I say this about so many prospects that it probably renders the distinction meaningless, but Texas JR OF Ben Johnson has to be one of this year’s draft’s most fascinating prospects. Johnson’s name has come up over and over again so far this season as a tooled-up prospect finally turning into a deeply skilled player. Or so I thought. All of the chatter over Johnson excited me because I had assumed he was finally doing the things that he’ll need to do to be a better pro. Full disclosure: I haven’t gotten any updates about him this season (since the fall) from anybody I know who has seen him and (I’M NOT A SCOUT) I’ve only personally seen him twice this year on the tube. So I’m not working with all the needed info to make any overarching statements that should be taken as fact. I’m just theorizing that maybe college analysts (and perhaps certain pro scouting staffs that weigh projection significantly ahead of production [they aren’t wrong for this, by the way]) are getting a little ahead of themselves in proclaiming this to be the start of Johnson’s ascension to day one of the 2015 MLB Draft. Johnson has been absolutely phenomenal this season by most every measure: .432/.463/.659 is damn good work in 88 at bats. Maybe he’s made adjustments as a hitter that the public will hear about as some of the best prospect writers begin doing some digging. Maybe (hopefully) I’ll hear something from one of my contacts sooner rather than later that brings some good news on his outburst. Until then, however, I think Ben Johnson is just doing Ben Johnson things. I won’t say that I anticipated this kind of start, but his numbers aren’t out of line with what you’d expect from a player with his kind of tools at the college level. It’s not crazy to say that he, like about a dozen or so players in this and every class, is too physically gifted for the college game. Johnson is a pro-level glove in center with an average or better arm, average or better raw power, and, most interestingly, the kind of jaw-dropping athleticism and game-changing speed that puts the whole package over the top.

Again, Johnson is putting up a ridiculous .432/.463/.659 line so far this year. That’s really great. With only 2 walks to 12 strikeouts, however, I’m not sure how all his considerable offensive gifts will continue to play as he climbs the ladder. For all the positives he brings to the table he still looks like a very high potential pick since athletes like him often provide value well beyond what they do at the plate (running, defending, you get it). That relatively high floor makes Johnson extra appealing; using a supplemental first, second, or third round pick on him is not likely to completely blow up in your face simply because he’s almost too damn athletic to do nothing. On the off chance he puts it together, watch out. If that paragraph reads like I’m hedging my bets on him, then you’re on the right track.

Hot start or not, I still lump Johnson in with fellow toolsy outfield peers like Florida JR OF Harrison Bader and Clemson JR OF Steven Duggar for the moment. Just because those guys rank 5-6-7 (further down if you consider any of Ian Happ, Richie Martin, or BC’s Chris Shaw outfielders) on my “current” (as current as anything draft-related can be that’s three weeks old) college outfield list does not mean I view them as ordinary, mid-round prospects. I didn’t write nearly enough about last year’s draft than I would have liked, but I’ll say this without the benefit of hindsight (not that a few weeks of pro ball should change anybody’s mind about anybody): I’d take this year’s toolsy outfielders above any college outfielder from last year with the exception of Michael Conforto, Bradley Zimmer, Mike Papi, and maybe (if he’s really an OF, which I’m still unsure of) Connor Joe. That’s above last year’s 37th overall pick, Derek Fisher, for what it’s worth.

In other non-Ben Johnson Big 12 outfield news, Texas Tech JR OF Tyler Neslony’s positive approach and power upside make him a strong bat worth knowing. His plate discipline has backed up a bit since last year here in the early going, so almost all caveats with such players apply. Same with Kansas State SR OF Max Brown, a rare senior sign that doubles as one of the draft’s finer physical specimens. The 6-5, 200 pound plus runner showed well in limited at bats last year, but, stop me if you’ve heard this before, his approach at the plate needs significant work. A crazy argument could be made that he might be the most valuable draft property of the three already mentioned Big 12 outfielders based solely on his talent (below Johnson to be sure, but he’s no slouch), projected round (no idea, but I’d be surprised if it was all that high), and potential bonus demands (no leverage).

The only draft-eligible outfielder listed below having an above-average season by my measures – I mean, Johnson clearly is and I’m being way too hard on him so pay no mind to the only part – is Oklahoma JR OF Craig Aikin, an above-average runner and glove with an interesting leadoff approach to hitting. Since we scratched the “only” from the previous sentence allow me to also recognize TCU SR OF Cody Jones as having a fine start to his 2015 season. He’s an even more interesting senior sign with his blazing speed, plus CF range, strong arm, and very selective approach. I don’t see enough power out of him to profile as more than a backup, but you could do worse when looking for a future speed and defense fourth or fifth outfielder.

2015 MLB Draft Talent – Hitting 

  1. Texas JR SS/3B CJ Hinojosa
  2. Texas JR OF Ben Johnson
  3. Texas Tech JR OF Tyler Neslony
  4. Kansas State SR OF Max Brown
  5. Oklahoma JR C Chris Shaw
  6. Oklahoma JR OF Hunter Haley
  7. Kansas SR OF/RHP Dakota Smith
  8. Oklahoma State JR SS/2B Donnie Walton
  9. Texas Tech JR 1B/LHP Eric Gutierrez
  10. Kansas rJR OF Steve Goldstein
  11. Kansas SR OF Connor McKay
  12. Oklahoma State SR C/OF Gage Green
  13. Oklahoma State SR C Bryan Case
  14. Kansas JR 2B/SS Colby Wright
  15. Texas Tech SR SS Tim Proudfoot
  16. Texas Christian SR OF Cody Jones
  17. Oklahoma JR 3B Kolbey Carpenter
  18. Oklahoma JR OF Craig Aikin
  19. Texas Christian JR OF Nolan Brown
  20. Texas SR OF Collin Shaw
  21. Texas Christian SR 3B/2B Derek Odell
  22. Kansas State rSR 1B/LHP Shane Conlon
  23. Oklahoma JR C/RHP Anthony Hermelyn
  24. Kansas State SR 2B/OF Carter Yagi
  25. Oklahoma State SR 2B/OF Tim Arakawa
  26. Texas SR 2B Brooks Marlow
  27. Kansas SR 2B/SS Justin Protacio
  28. Texas Tech rSO SS/2B Cory Raley
  29. Texas Christian JR 2B Garrett Crain
  30. Kansas rJR OF Joe Moroney
  31. Texas Tech JR C Kholton Sanchez
  32. Texas Tech JR C Tyler Floyd
  33. Baylor JR 1B Mitch Price
  34. Texas Tech SR 2B Bryant Burleson

2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching

  1. Texas Christian JR LHP Alex Young
  2. Texas Christian JR RHP Riley Ferrell
  3. Texas Christian rSO RHP Mitchell Traver
  4. Oklahoma rJR LHP Adam Choplick
  5. Texas SR RHP Parker French
  6. Texas Tech JR RHP Matt Withrow
  7. Oklahoma State rJR RHP/OF Conor Costello
  8. Baylor SR RHP Austin Stone
  9. Oklahoma State JR RHP Koda Glover
  10. Oklahoma State SO RHP Trey Cobb
  11. Texas Christian SO LHP Tyler Alexander
  12. Texas Christian rSO RHP Brian Triegflaff
  13. Texas Christian SR LHP Travis Evans
  14. Texas Christian rSR RHP Trey Teakell
  15. Texas rSR RHP Ty Marlow
  16. Oklahoma JR LHP/1B Jacob Evans
  17. Kansas JR RHP Hayden Edwards
  18. Oklahoma JR RHP Blake Rogers
  19. Oklahoma State SR RHP Jon Perrin
  20. Baylor rSR LHP Brad Kuntz
  21. Texas Tech JR RHP/OF Quinn Carpenter
  22. Kansas State rJR RHP Nate Williams
  23. Oklahoma rSR RHP Robert Tasin
  24. Baylor rJR RHP Ryan Smith
  25. Texas JR RHP Chad Hollingsworth
  26. Texas Tech SR RHP Dominic Moreno
  27. Texas JR LHP Travis Duke
  28. Oklahoma JR RHP RHP Corey Copping
  29. Texas Christian SR RHP Preston Morrison
  30. Kansas State rSO RHP Nate Griep
  31. Oklahoma State rSR LHP Tyler Nurdin
  32. Kansas State JR RHP Levi MaVorhis
  33. Kansas State rSO RHP Colton Kalmus
  34. Oklahoma State JR LHP Alex Hackerott
  35. Texas JR LHP Ty Culbreth
  36. Texas Tech SR LHP Cameron Smith
  37. Texas Tech SR RHP Corey Taylor
  38. West Virginia JR RHP Jeff Hardy
  39. Texas Tech JR RHP Dalton Brown
  40. Baylor SR RHP Sean Spicer
  41. Kansas State rSO RHP Blake McFadden
  42. Oklahoma JR LHP Jeffrey Curran
  43. West Virginia rJR LHP Ross Vance

2015 MLB Draft Prospects – Oklahoma State

rJR RHP/OF Conor Costello (2015)
JR RHP Koda Glover (2015)
rSR LHP Tyler Nurdin (2015)
SR RHP Jon Perrin (2015)
JR LHP Alex Hackerott (2015)
SR LHP Michael Freeman (2015)
JR SS/2B Donnie Walton (2015)
JR 2B Kevin Bradley (2015)
JR 3B David Petrino (2015)
SR OF/2B Tim Arakawa (2015)
SR 3B Hunter Hagler (2015)
SR C Bryan Case (2015)
SR OF/C Gage Green (2015)
SO LHP Garrett Williams (2016)
SO RHP Tyler Buffett (2016)
SO RHP Blake Battenfield (2016)
SO RHP Thomas Hatch (2016)
SO RHP Remey Reed (2016)
SO RHP Trey Cobb (2016)
SO LHP Matt Wilson (2016)
SO OF Ryan Sluder (2016)
SO 3B Andrew Rosa (2016)
SO 1B/OF Dustin Williams (2016)
FR OF Jon Littell (2017)
FR 1B/OF Caleb Eldridge (2017)
FR SS Jacob Chappell (2017)
FR LHP/OF Garrett McCain (2017)
FR RHP Carson LaRue (2017)
FR 1B Mason O’Brien (2017)

I feel bad for saying it, but I didn’t expect to like the Oklahoma State lineup nearly as much as I do. Maybe it has something to do with the lull in bats to come out of the school in recent years. Their best pro hitter since the glory days of the 80’s (Ventura, Tettleton, Incaviglia, Burnitz) is…Luke Scott? Jordy Mercer? Part of it probably has me associating pitching with the program. Since I’ve started the site the Cowboys have had Andy Oliver, Tyler Blandford, Tyler Lyons, Chris Marlowe, Andrew Heaney, and Jason Hursh all go in the top ten rounds. Oliver, Heaney, and Hursh were all pretty big deals as prospects, too. Oklahoma State hasn’t had a bat in years that has grabbed me like any of those guys. In all honesty, this year isn’t any different, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a fun collection of potential pro hitters to talk about. JR SS/2B Donnie Walton is a more than capable defender with the speed and patience of a professional leadoff hitter. He’s one of my favorite mid-round 2015 college middle infielders. Though his lack of pop limits his ceiling, SR OF/2B Tim Arakawa has a carrying tool (speed) strong enough to get a second look this spring as a senior sign. There’s been lots of nice things said about JR 2B Kevin Bradley (coming off injury, but defensive versatility makes him intriguing if he hits), JR 3B David Petrino, and SR 3B Hunter Hagler. Hagler is my favorite of the trio right now (hasn’t shown it yet, but I believe in the hit tool), but all three could take steps forward this spring. SR C Bryan Case might also have enough of an arm strength/raw power blend to get drafted.

Associating pitching with the Oklahoma State program ultimately works out yet again this year as the Cowboys have a high number of high follows on staff. The theme here would be talented arms with plenty to prove. The poster boys for said theme are rJR RHP/OF Conor Costello and JR RHP Koda Glover. Costello has consistently shown more as a hitter than on the mound, but he’s still a high upside arm to watch. Athletic righties with size and velocity (low-90s, 95/96 peak) tend to be worth paying attention to, no matter the previous year’s production. Glover is another young guy with size (6-4, 200 pounds) and arm strength (95 peak) to track. rSR LHP Tyler Nurdin, SR RHP Jon Perrin, and JR LHP Alex Hackerott have all shown more at the college level. Nurdin’s control left him last year, but when he’s on he’s a capable three-pitch potential professional starter. Perrin, the most consistently reliable of the three, can spot a good low-90s fastball with darn near anybody in the conference. Hackerott has been arguably as good as Perrin in his career — the arguably is only there due to the innings gap between him and Perrin (the latter has a lot more) — while showing good enough stuff from the left side to warrant late-round pro consideration this summer. He probably fits in better as a 2016 senior sign candidate, but that remains to be seen.

Internal pressure to finish as many as these previews as possible before the season starts has me trying to limit what I say about future draft classes, but Oklahoma State’s group of underclassmen tests my ability to do so. The school’s strong reputation of turning out quality pitching is in very capable hands with guys like SO LHP Garrett Williams (star upside), SO RHP Blake Battenfield, and SO RHP Thomas Hatch poised to build on strong freshman seasons. I limited myself to just spotlighting those three names, but every underclass arm you see listed above has recognizable pro talent. SO 3B Andrew Rosa and FR SS Jason Chappell could combine at some point to share the nation’s fastest left side of the infield, if that’s the direction the coaching staff so chooses. SO OF Ryan Sluder (a huge favorite) and FR OF Jon Littell appear set to do so some serious mashing in short order. I’ve said it before, but for as much as I try to keep up with the college baseball landscape year-round, I’m often surprised to see certain teams’ rosters when they are all laid out like this. Just seeing all these names and getting the reminder that this kind of talent is in the pipeline at OK State has me more pumped for the upcoming season than ever before. This is a really good team right now with the potential to be great in the not too distant future.