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Somebody just asked me who my favorite 2012 MLB Draft prospects at each position across the ACC were last night. Alright, that’s a total lie…but here they are anyway:
Virginia Tech SO C Chad Morgan | .237/.333/.360 – 16 BB/34 K – 139 AB
Morgan was a favorite heading into 2011 because of his big power upside, plus arm strength, and well above-average defensive skills. His sophomore year numbers don’t exactly scream early round candidate heading into 2012, but the big tools remain.
Florida State SO 1B Jayce Boyd | .339/.423/.519 – 36 BB/30 K – 233 AB
Despite the change in bats, Boyd put up a nearly identical stat line in 2011 (2010 numbers: .341/.413/.528 – 28 BB/36 K – 214 AB) with the biggest exception being his improved plate discipline. The most difficult players to project – for me, anyway – are the prospects who are destined for bat-first positions (i.e. first base and corner outfield) because the margin for error is so slight. Boyd has a bat I believe in. Watching him hit reminds you of the difference between a good power hitter and a good hitter who hits for power. Boyd is squarely in the latter category; his plus raw power and outstanding collegiate production are byproducts of his special hit tool. I’d caution against thinking that his likely inability to stick at third base at the next level equates to below-average athleticism and negative defensive value. Yeah, it’s true that he may be too stiff to man the hot corner professionally, but his solid athleticism, soft hands, and great baseball instincts make him a plus defender at first base.
Florida State SO 2B Devon Travis | .336/.462/.523 – 43 BB/28 K – 5/9 SB – 220 AB
Travis will head into the 2012 season duking it out with North Carolina’s Tommy Coyle for the honor of first second baseman picked out of the ACC. I like the rising Florida State junior to be the first off the board because of his exciting mix of future tools and current skills. As his 2011 hitting line shows, his bat fits well as a potential pro leadoff hitter, offering that almost ideal blend of patience and little man (5-9, 180 pounds) pop. He has also shown above-average speed along with plus defensive tools at second, though his on-field output in both areas (only 10 steals in two years and up and down performances in the field) has been inconsistent to date.
Virginia SO SS Stephen Bruno | .240/.269/.320 – 0 BB/7 K – 0/1 SB – 25 AB
I wrote about Bruno a bit back in the day…
FR SS Stephen Bruno (2012) was one of the rarest of the rare coming out of high school – a prep player actually expected to stay at shortstop as a pro. We always hear about how pretty much every worthwhile big leaguer was the star shortstop/pitcher of his high school team, but it never registered how often these players were forced to move off the position after signing that first pro deal. I mean, Jim Thome was a shortstop in high school* because, let’s be honest, that’s just where you put the best athlete at that level. I remember watching Billy Rowell play shortstop in high school. He positioned himself about 3 steps out on the outfield grass, basically admitting to all in attendance he had no range and instead relying exclusively on his rocket arm to gun people down at first. Rowell wasn’t a pro prospect as a shortstop, but he played shortstop on his high school team because, quite simply, if he didn’t, then who would? Bruno was a top ten round talent in 2009 who fell to the Yankees in the 26th round due to a very strong commitment to Virginia. He’ll stick at shortstop throughout his career due to his plus range, slightly above-average speed, and Speedy Gonzalez quick hands. He has flashed present power, launching a couple of 450 bombs his senior year of school, but lacks the overall strength to do it on a consistent basis. That last point may not seem like a huge deal for a middle infield prospect, but it does speak to the general concerns about Bruno’s future. Some players are projects based on the development of their tools, an area that Bruno grades out fairly well across the board (in addition to the aforementioned defensive skills, he has a 55 arm), but other players are projects based on their physical development. That’s where Bruno is at right now. He has worked his tail off to improve in each of the five tools (most notably speed and arm strength), but it’ll be the way is body fills out (keeping in mind he is 5-9, 165) that will make him into either a first round caliber guy or not.
It really is a shame that an injured hamstring has held back Bruno in 2011 because, when healthy, he can really, really play. He should get his chance next season, though it remains to be seen if he’ll get the opportunity to unseat the incumbent Chris Taylor or have to put his strong arm and good athleticism to use elsewhere on the diamond. As good as Taylor has been at short for the Cavaliers, I think Bruno’s defensive upside is even higher.
North Carolina State SO 3B Danny Canela | .267/.349/.443 – 17 BB/26 K – 131 AB
This may be a little bit of a cheat seeing how Canela’s likeliest defensive home at the next level is probably behind the plate, but a little bit of creative licensing gets him the job at the hot corner on our list. He is probably talented enough to play at least average defense at either position, but his, shall we say, “compact” 5-10, 230 pound frame gives him the look of a future pro backstop. Canela’s signature tool is probably his raw arm strength – no surprise considering his two defensive positions – but his quick bat and power upside are nearly as appealing positives.
Georgia Tech SO OF Brandon Thomas | .322/.434/.449 – 38 BB/40 K – 20/23 SB – 205 AB
It’s easy to see why Thomas has drawn favorably comparisons (by me) to former Georgia Tech outfielders Charlie Blackmon and Danny Payne. A quick rundown of his biggest positives: above-average range in a corner spot, an arm strong enough for right field, good speed that he knows how to use, gap power with a chance for more, excellent athleticism, and a pro ready body (6-3, 205 pounds). It can sometimes be difficult to pinpoint a good prospect a year ahead of the draft, but tools like that combined with really strong production at an outstanding college program make this whole prognostication thing a lot easier.
North Carolina State SO OF Tarran Senay | .271/.401/.388 – 26 BB/38 K – 0/1 SB – 129 AB
Senay is probably the least toolsy of the outfielders listed, so the “bat or bust” risk factor typified by future first basemen/left fielders is magnified. Injuries knocked his numbers down in 2011 (check his freshman season line: .304/.456/.571 – 28 BB/29 K – 112 AB), but the plus raw power keeps him squarely on the 2012 draft map.
Virginia SO OF Reed Gragnani | .293/.410/.361 – 19 BB/13 K – 1/3 SB – 133 AB
A little bit of Gragnani appreciation written by me (though with too much information lifted from here…I feel bad about that, so sorry Mr. Kolenich…I’ve gotten better at attributing sources since then) prior to his freshman year…
FR SS Reed Gragnani (2012) is yet another talented young prospect expected to see significant time in a loaded Virginia infield. His game right now revolves largely around his well above-average speed, excellent athleticism, and impressive range up the middle, but he is no slouch with the bat either. Early comps include Brian Roberts (if he develops as is) and Ryan Zimmerman (if he bulks up and gains power). Gragnani’s brother, Robbie, grew four inches during his college tenure at Virginia Commonwealth, so that Ryan Zimmerman developmental path isn’t totally out of the question. That’s not to say that the only thing standing in the way between Gragnani and future big league All-Star status is a couple of inches and some muscle, but he’s a good player with high round talent all the same.
I still believe in Gragnani as a middle infielder, but also think he has the tools to play a mean center field if given the chance. I also still believe in his bat. While it is true that his power hasn’t come on like many (myself included) had hoped, he still has the chance to hit for a high average and gap power at the next level.
I was keeping tabs of a handful of players heading into the third day of the draft because, well, that’s what I do. Then it occurred to me in a flash – hey! Why don’t I actually publish some of my thoughts and put them up on that website I run? Clever, right? A quick recap of day three for those of you who made it that far…
RHSP Scott Griggs – The prep arm from California went in the 34th round to Seattle. If you can believe it, I actually had Griggs ranked as the number five overall high school righthander coming into the year, so this is one heck of a fall. The reasons I liked Griggs coming into the eyar (three above-average pitches and potential plus command) are why I think he could re-emerge as a first rounder out of UCLA in 2012.
C Austin Maddox – It’s possible that Maddox could be insurance if the Rays can’t sign 4th rounder Luke Bailey, but it seems almost a certainty that he won’t be needed as a backup plan and will be free to head to Gainesville for three years with the Gators. I’m not sure if it’s been speculating on one way or another yet, but I’ll go ahead and wonder it aloud: any possiblity Maddox, a player with good present skills but little projection left in his body, opts to go the junior college route and re-enter the draft in 2010?
RHSP Scott Swinson – The University of Maryland junior was a deep sleeper coming into the year who must have forgotten to set his alarm clock this spring. The finesse righty will head back to college next year in hopes of improving his draft position (46th rounder of Baltimore).
C Jack Murphy – I thought he had done enough in his first two years at Princeton to warrant a 7/8th round grade, but big league clubs did not agree. Perhaps he made his intentions to return to Princeton known and teams were scared off because of it. Or maybe his subpar junior year against subpar competition was enough to turn teams off. His quick scouting report can be found here, but I included a relevant snippet for those who don’t click through on the links (mostly because I never do):
Murphy is a below the radar 2009 draft prospect who interests me greatly because he seems to have the formula for this year’s draft-eligible college hitters down pat: a couple of above-average tools with some semblance of a track record of success, but no overwhelming physical attributes that would carry him if all other aspects of his game failed, noticeable blips in performance that cause concerns about future production, and an overall lack of polish…
…Final verdict on Jack Murphy – worth a flier in round ten or later because he has the upside of a good big league offensive-minded backup catcher
Murphy could be re-establish himself as a top ten round pick with a big senior year, assuming he heads back to Jersey to grab that Ivy League school diploma.
RHSP Chris Jenkins and RHSP Ethan Carter – Unless I’m missing something, both Jenkins and Carter went undrafted. I find this stunning for many reasons, but I won’t jump to crazy conclusions because I’m sure there is a logical explanation (signability, probably) that explains it all away. I’d love to hear it. I had these two players back-to-back (13th and 14th, I believe) in my preseason rankings and noted their how similar they were at the time:
Eerily similar stuff Jenkins, but his classic big-bodied pitcher’s frame (6-5, 205) gives him the edge in projectability. Truth be told, his stuff is probably a tick better across the board than [Jordan] Cooper’s (Ed. Note: Cooper was a 17th round pick of the Pirates and ranked just behind Carter on my preseason list) – slightly better present fastball heat, more advanced and varied breaking stuff, and a real changeup. Carter has a chance to fly up this list with a good spring, something that is easy to envision this big righty with sterling makeup doing.
There is plenty to like about Chris Jenkins, namely a heavy fastball that touches 94 MPH and sits in the low 90s, a potential low 80s MPH power slider, a gigantic frame (6-7, 235), and interest from schools like Stanford and Duke. There is also plenty to dislike about Chris Jenkins, namely his spotty command, and high effort delivery. Jenkins’ raw potential is undeniable, but he is a long way away from unlocking it. I know I previously compared Ethan Carter to Jordan Cooper, but perhaps the better comparison is between the two big righties, Carter and Jenkins. Carter has a touch more polish at present, but very few pitchers, Carter included, stack up with Jenkins when it comes to upside.
Was I totally off the mark? Or is something far more nefarious at play? What say you, Google? It appears that Carter is a strong enough commit to South Carolina that he is already enrolled in Summer II classes. Jenkins is going to Stanford, a fact that teams knew about heading into the draft and a perfect explanation why teams would stay away. That explains that. Thanks, Google!
LHSP Chris Manno – The junior from Duke went in the 38th round to Washington. Underrated collegiate performer with good enough stuff to get out big league hitters. I think he could go back to school and turn himself into a top 10 round pick in 2010.
OF Tarran Senay (Pennsylvania) – Like Manno, another 38th round pick. Unlike Manno, Senay is a high school player who is rumored to be about a 50/50 shot to sign. If he doesn’t, he’ll take his high-contact lefthanded approach to NC State.
C Miles Hamblin – How in the world did Miles Hamblin (Howard JC) go undrafted?
RHRP Kyle Thebeau – Another shocker. The Texas A&M senior was a 9th round pick as a junior, but somehow failed to get drafted at all in 2009. For a player with good enough stuff, improved fastball command, ample big game experience, and a strong finish to the year (as noted by Bryan Smith) to not get drafted at all, well, that’s just weird. Is he hurt?