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Top 500 Prospects Drafted by Seattle in 2016
4 – Kyle Lewis
54 – Joe Rizzo
119 – Bryson Brigman
256 – Donnie Walton
301 – David Greer
351 – Nick Zammarelli
379 – Reggie McClain
424 – Thomas Burrows
1.11 – OF Kyle Lewis
I like Kyle Lewis (4). I write about guys I like a lot during the draft process. Rather than reprint a whole wall of Kyle Lewis words, I’ll leave this link from last February here. I don’t normally link to myself and recommend you read it, but this is one of those rare times when I think it’s worth it. The paragraph most germane to our present discussion of Lewis…
Kyle Lewis hit .367/.423/.677 last year in a decent college conference. That’s good, clearly. His 19 BB/41 K ratio is less good. So why buy the bat? As a hitter, I like what I’ve seen and heard about his righthanded swing. I like that he seemingly improved his approach (aggressively hunting for “his” pitch showed good self-scouting while getting ahead more frequently late in the year demonstrated a fuller understanding of what it will take to succeed against top-level competition) and started chasing fewer pitchers’s pitches as the season went on. I like his physical projection, public and privately shared intel about his work ethic, bat speed (I’ve seen some “whoa” cuts from him), and how his athleticism allows his upper- and lower-body to work in concern with one another with each swing. Believe me, I understand doubting him now as a potential top ten pick and dark horse to go 1-1 in this draft based on a wait-and-see approach to his plate discipline; if improvements aren’t made in his draft year BB/K ratio, all the positive scouting buzz will matter a lot less to me come June. But part of college scouting early in the season is identifying players set to make the leap as juniors. I think Lewis’s leap as a more mature, thoughtful, and explosive hitter has already begun, and it’ll be reflected on the field this upcoming season. I’ve thrown out a Yasiel Puig comp in the past for his ceiling and I’m sticking with that for now. As an added prospect to prospect bonus, his game reminds me some of Anthony Alford. Your mileage might vary on how in the draft a player like that could go, but it sure sounds like a potential premium pick to me.
Lewis followed that sophomore season up with a .395/.535/.731 junior campaign. His BB/K ratio moved from 19/41 to 66/48. That’s the kind of progress you can only dream about when forecasting a draft year breakout. Lewis delivered and then some, yet some still found reasons to tear him down during the draft process. No player is above being viewed through a critical lens, but I can’t help but feel that Lewis, for whatever reason, was this year’s “yeah, but” prospect for far too many. Positive scouting reports from his sophomore season at Mercer and summer on the Cape…yeah, but his numbers, namely his BB/K, weren’t first round quality. Tremendous turnaround in that exact area as a junior…yeah, but the level of competition puts the degree of actual improvement in question. Electric bat speed, plus to plus-plus raw power, hit tool looking better with every week…yeah, but strikeouts? Can’t play center? Too likable and hard working?
There are clearly some elements of truth in all of the singular bits of criticism of Lewis’s game — no prospect is perfect, after all — but what does well (lots) and how well he does it (very) is far more important to me than his minor flaws. From May 2016…
Arguably the closest comp to Bryant statistically is Kyle Lewis. Most walks, most whiffs, and some degree of a speed component. They also both played slightly lesser conference competition than their peers. I still kind of think that he’s got a lot of Yasiel Puig in his game — both the good and the bad — but that’s admittedly a minority view. Jermaine Dye is a good one put out there by Frankie Piliere. I’ve also heard Derek Bell, a name that I like because I think it fits fairly well and because any excuse to look up Derek Bell again gives the mid-90s sports nostalgia part of my brain a jolt.
Operation Shutdown will never not be funny to me. Anyway, I still like the Puig comp best of all. Comparing anybody to Puig, a player coming off as weird, wild, and unpredictable a first four MLB seasons as anybody in recent memory, might be silly, but I think Lewis lines ups favorably from both a skills and tools standpoint, and could have a similar above-average offensive start to his career with flirtations of stardom mixed in any given year. Burgeoning hit tool, loads of power, at least average speed, arm, and range, young for class, litany of favorable comps, and, most importantly of all, continual improvement in all phases of his game almost every time he steps foot on the diamond. Lewis had a very strong case for going first overall in this class; getting him at eleventh overall is about as big a no-brainer first round pick as you’ll see.
2.50 – 3B Joe Rizzo
I don’t love leading with “old” information, but this bit on Joe Rizzo (54) from May 2016 is one of my favorites…
Joe Rizzo, the man without a position, slides into the top spot here at first base. My strong hunch is that whatever team drafts him early will do so with the idea to play him at a more demanding defensive spot – could be third, could be second, could even be behind the plate – but eventually he’ll settle in as a professional first baseman. Offensively, I’ve gotten a Don Mattingly comp on him that I obviously find intriguing. The better comp, however, is one that takes a little getting used to. If I had to type up an anonymous scout quote to back it up, it might sound like this: “Well, I don’t like the body, but he can really swing it. Some guys just have a knack for hitting it hard every time, and Rizzo is one of ‘em. Pretty swing, above-average to plus power, and more athletic than he looks. Can probably fake it elsewhere on the diamond, but I’d stick him at first and just have him focus on piling up hits. Reminds me of a young John Kruk.” So there you have it. The anonymous scout that I made up has put a young John Kruk comp out there. Nice work, anonymous scout. I like it.
(It’s also worth pointing out that an actual scout – i.e., not one that is actually me in disguise – mentioned Bobby Bradley as a recent draft comp for Rizzo. I don’t hate it!)
John Kruk! I just love that comp so much. I can’t wait to start reading (and getting) firsthand reports about Rizzo, a position-less unconventional-bodied straight baller at the plate, from pro guys. They won’t know what hit ’em. They WILL know (presumably) what Rizzo can do: hit ’em. I adore Rizzo’s hit tool and think he’s going to be an above-average to plus offensive contributor for a long, long time. I’m intrigued about his defensive upside at a couple of different positions (second, catcher, or his current landing spot third), but I really just want to watch him hit and hit and hit. I’m very much into this pick. Kyle Lewis and Joe Rizzo is a hell of a way to start off a draft.
3.87 – SS Bryson Brigman
Obsessing all spring about finding answers about the long-term defensive future of Bryson Brigman (119) — quick version: athletic enough for short with just enough range, but arm feels just a touch light to want him there in anything more than spot-duty — obscured the more pressing Brigman question: will the young middle infielder from San Diego get into enough power to profile as a regular no matter what position he plays? For example, here I am going on and on and on about Brigman’s glove back in March 2016…
Doing so would allow me to regularly see Bryson Brigman, a prospect that has begun to remind me a lot of Arizona’s Scott Kingery from last year’s draft. Kingery was a second round pick (48th overall) and I could see Brigman rising to a similar level by June. Like Kingery last year, Brigman’s defensive future remains a question for scouts. Fortunately for both, the question is framed more around trying him in challenging spots than worrying about having to hide him elsewhere on the diamond. Brigman has an above-average to plus defensive future at second back in his back pocket already, so his playing a solid shortstop in 2016 is doing so with house money. In much the same way that former second baseman Alex Bregman wore everybody down with consistent above-average play at short last college season, Brigman has proved to many that he has what it takes to stick at shortstop in pro ball. Brigman’s appeal at this point is pretty clear: tons of defensive potential in the middle infield, contact abilities that elicit the classic “he could find a hole rolling out of bed” remarks from onlookers, and enough of the sneaky pop/mature approach offensive extras needed to be an impactful regular in the big leagues. I’ll stick with the Kingery – who smart people told me here could play shortstop if needed, a position since corroborated by those who have seen him in the pros (I’ll be seeing him for myself on Saturday, FWIW) – comparison for now, but I wouldn’t object to somebody who offered up a mix of the best of both Kingery and his old double play partner Kevin Newman. That would obviously be some kind of special player, but Brigman doesn’t seem too far off. I’ve said before I hate when people throw around terms like “first round player” so loosely that you could count 100 first rounders in their eyes in the months leading up to June, but I’ll be guilty of it here and call Brigman a first round player as of now. I’ve really come to appreciate his game since the start of the season.
Comparing any young guy to Scott Kingery, a prospect I’ve always liked more than maybe I should, is high praise. I have little doubt about Brigman’s hit tool continuing to play at the big league even as questions about his power exist. Hit tool, plate discipline, athleticism, speed, and defense can take you a long way in pro ball. The glaring lack of power, however, puts a pretty clear potential cap on his ceiling. And I say that before checking the stats from his first professional season: .260/.369/.291. Six doubles and a triple in 318 plate appearances isn’t going to cut it. I still believe the hit tool will play, but it’ll be on Brigman to make the necessary adjustments to pro pitchers who will attack him differently once reports of his below-average power make the rounds.
4.117 – LHP Thomas Burrows
The fourth round felt a little early for a guy like Thomas Burrows (424) based on ceiling, but there’s no arguing with the results the lefty from Alabama has produced on the field to this point. Burrows was great in college from day one, but took things to another level as a junior: 13.04 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, and 0.95 ERA in 28.1 IP. Then he went out and did more or less the same thing in his pro debut: 13.50 K/9, 4.01 BB/9, and 2.55 ERA in 24.2 IP. I’m sure there are other recent comparables to Burrows over the years I could think of if I really sat down and tried, but the two names that immediately came to mind when it comes to reasonable comps are Paco Rodriguez (82nd overall pick in 2012) and Jacob Lindgren (55th overall pick in 2014). By that logic, based solely off of two previous draft examples, Seattle got a steal in snagging Burrows with pick 117! For real, the three guys all have common traits that give them high-floors with reasonable upside. All were lefthanded college relievers with fastballs capable of hitting the mid-90s (Burrows is 88-94), quality sliders, good command, and ample deception. The safety of this profile — both Rodriguez and Lindgren within a year of being drafted — is dinged only slightly by the uncertainty that comes with literally every single pitching prospect in the game (both Rodriguez and Lindgren have had Tommy John surgery, as pitchers do). I’m not saying that Burrows will pitch in the big leagues early in 2017 before eventually being forced to make his way back after his elbow explodes, but if you’re the type to buy into historical precedent and the power of three…
5.147 – SS Donnie Walton
From the high-floor of Thomas Burrows to the high-floor of Donnie Walton (256), the Mariners grab two likely big league role players with back-to-back selections within the draft’s first five rounds. As an avowed fan of going upside early and often, I shouldn’t like it…but I kind of do. I unexpectedly sold myself on Burrows with those Rodriguez/Lindgren comps, and Walton is the perfect example of a the right kind of high-floor prospect to target. If you’re going to go minimal risk with an early pick, get a guy like Walton who makes tons of quality contact, works deep counts, and can play whatever spot on the diamond you want to try him at. A long track record of success, sneaky speed, and an average arm that is stretched on the left side but playable just add to what makes him a rock solid future big league utility option. This echoes what was written back in April 2016…
Walton is pretty much exactly what you’d expect out of the son of a coach: there’s nothing flashy to his game, but he ably fields his position, runs well, and can make just about all the throws from short. It might be a utility player profile more so than a future regular ceiling, but it’s relatively safe and well worth a top ten round pick.
The fifth round qualifies as a top ten round pick, right? Then we’re good here. Nice work by Seattle.
6.177 – RHP Brandon Miller
When I saw Brandon Miller pitch this past season for Millersville (3/31/16 against East Stroudsburg), I saw a big (6-4, 210) righthanded starting pitcher with exceptional control, solid command of four pitches (88-93 FB, average 77-83 SL, 82-83 CU flashed average, show-me 72 CB), and a willingness to attack hitters with high fastballs. He wasn’t at his best that day (6 IP 10 H 7 ER 2 BB 4 K), but you could still see future professional starting pitcher traits. Sixth round for Miller seems early to me, but a team like Seattle that valued his brand of control, command, and well-rounded stuff is free to disagree. I’m always in favor of guys I saw play up close going high, so I’m on board for entirely selfish reasons.
7.207 – RHP Matt Festa
When I saw Matt Festa pitch this past season for East Stroudsburg (3/31/16 against Millersville), I saw a short (6-1, 190) righthanded starting pitcher with above-average control, solid command of three pitches (89-95 FB, average CB/SL, CU flashed average), and a propensity for pitching down in the zone. He was pretty sharp that day (7 IP 6 H 2 ER 2 BB 8 K), so it was easy to walk away impressed. I’d love to see him get a shot in relief where he’d really be able to air it out — more mid-90s than low-90s could get him on a much faster track to the big leagues — but he’s good enough to develop as a starter as well. Big thing working against him now is his age; Festa will start his first full pro season at 24-years-old. That could be all the more reason to get him in the pen sooner rather than later.
8.237 – 3B Nick Zammarelli
Seattle’s emphasis on finding productive college players continues with Nick Zammarelli (351) going off the board in round eight. If you’re into versatile defenders who have shown steady growth in all offensive areas (power, patience, contact) over the course of the past three seasons, then Zammarelli is your guy. I can see his pro debut being a template for how he’ll likely be deployed if/when he reaches the big leagues. While with the AquaSox, Zammarelli played all four corner spots (1B/3B/LF/RF). That seems like a reasonably realistic outcome for an eighth rounder, though I wouldn’t put it past the Elon product continuing to impress with the bat enough to find steadier work one day.
9.267 – C Jason Goldstein
On Jason Goldstein from April 2016…
Jason Goldstein is one of those all-around catching prospects that teams should like a lot on draft day, but all indications point towards that being a minority view than a consensus around baseball. I liked Goldstein a lot last year, I still like him this year, and it’s fine that he’ll likely be drafted much later than where he’ll be ranked on my board. He’s a heady defender with enough arm strength to profile as a big league backup at worst.
I really like Jason Goldstein as a potential big league backup catcher. Or at least I thought I did before Seattle took him much earlier than I ever could have imagined heading into the draft. Maybe I was just a year ahead of the curve when I ranked the catcher from Illinois as the second (!) best college backstop and 94th overall prospect (!!!) in the country in 2015. That was one heck of an aggressive ranking. I dropped him all the way down to 37th among college catchers in 2016 and out of the top 500 entirely. That may have been too drastic an overcorrection from 2015 — in fairness, the college catching depth in 2016 was head and shoulders above what we saw in 2015 — so splitting the difference between when he was ranked 94th and when he was ranked 501st (humor me here) probably gives the most accurate depiction of what I think about him as a draft prospect. That would have put him at 297th, not too far off from where Seattle took him (267th) this past June. His scouting notes from way back in his high school days — back when he was ranked 499th among all draft-eligible prospects — are as useful as ever…
C Jason Goldstein (Highland Park HS, Illinois): plus arm strength; highest level defensive tools; accurate arm; strong; fantastic footwork; quick bat; good approach; not a ton of power upside, but a professional hitting approach; 5-11, 190 pounds; R/R
Add a couple inches, about twenty good pounds, and a strengthened reputation as a high baseball IQ leader behind the dish, and you’ve got the 2016 version of Goldstein. His junior season power spike got me a little carried away with his upside, but he’s still a guy who does all the little things well enough to have a long career as a potential high-level backup. Even if that upside isn’t met, the unseen value of having a guy like Goldstein around minor league pitching the next few years is worth a ninth round pick. Good get for a money-saving senior-sign.
10.297 – 3B David Greer
On David Greer (301) from April 2016…
David Greer is one of college baseball’s best, most underrated hitters. I’d put his hit tool on the short list of best in this college class. With that much confidence in him offensively, the only real question that needs to be answered is what position he’ll play as a pro. Right now it appears that a corner outfield spot is the most likely destination, but his prior experience at both second and third will no doubt intrigue teams willing to trade a little defense for some offense at those spots.
David Greer can hit. I think the position he played most often during his debut (RF) is probably his most likely landing spot in the long run. A guy with his kind of hit tool, disciplined approach, and big arm in right field has a shot to profile as a potential regular there. If it doesn’t work out that way, a four-corners future a la Nick Zammarelli could be his path to the big leagues. That kind of future would fit this Seattle draft class really well.
If there’s one consistent theme I’ve heard about the new-ish Mariners front office, it’s that building depth throughout the system matters. Seattle’s attention to the peripheral positions on the roster has come across with decisions both at the big league level and through the draft. Kyle Lewis could be a star. Joe Rizzo has that kind of upside as a hitter. After that, you can see the kind of highly productive potential role player types that Seattle seemingly targeted selected across their draft from round three to forty. A little more upside at certain spots would be nice — a high-upside HS type in the mid-single-digits and another in round eleven would qualify — but I think a draft focused on making solid contact rather than taking big all-or-nothing cuts can make sense in its own way.
11.327 – RHP Michael Koval
Michael Koval is who we thought he was. Junior season at Cal Poly Pomona: 6.80 K/9 and 2.14 BB/9. Pro debut with Seattle: 6.37 K/9 and 2.55 BB/9. You have to appreciate a prospect who delivers exactly what is expected, for better or worse. Koval’s peripherals aren’t those typically associated with a top ten round pick (or eleven, in this case), but the former Division II star’s game is geared more toward getting outs on the ground than via the strikeout. When you do the former at a dominant level (literally two-thirds of batted balls against him in his debut were on the ground) and the latter at a respectable level, you can make the sinker/slider relief profile work.
12.357 – LHP Tim Viehoff
Two picks off the beaten path in a row for Seattle here as they follow up the Michael Koval (Cal Poly Pomona) selection by making Tim Viehoff Southern New Hampshire’s highest drafted player ever in the twelfth round. Viehoff is plenty deserving of the spot thanks to a trio of quality offerings (88-92 FB, SL, CU), a three-year track record of missing bats (11.81 K/9) and limited walks (3.43 BB/9), and imposing size (6-4, 200) from the left side. Sounds good to me. Came across this when checking Viehoff’s numbers…
The Aquasox instituted a policy for their on-field staff to wait 30 days after a player is drafted before tweaking their game, which gives the staff a full view of why a player was drafted. Viehoff’s hope is that Aquasox pitching coach Moises Hernandez, the older brother of Mariners ace Felix Hernandez, will help sharpen his change-up and slider, among other things, upon finally getting the opportunity to work together. Whether or not he will gain further development is the furthest concern from Viehoff’s mind.
First, good policy. My initial reaction is that thirty days isn’t long enough; I’m not saying it’s wrong and I’m admittedly nowhere near as knowledgeable about the player development side of things as I pretend to be about prospect evaluation, but my instinct would be to wait until the first fall instructional league to begin to tinker with a player’s game. Anyway, the real reason for pulling out that paragraph is that I had no idea that Felix Hernandez’s brother was a pitching coach in the Mariners organization. I’m sure M’s fans know all about that, but I’m willing to be that a lot of fans of other teams didn’t know, either.
13.387 – RHP Reggie McClain
This felt like the perfect spot to give Reggie McClain (379) of Missouri a shot, especially if you buy into my pre-draft rankings (found in parentheses for every top 500 prospect if you haven’t caught on by now). The redshirt-senior more than held up his end of the bargain after signing (10.24 K/9 K/9 and 0.93 BB/9 in 48.1 IP), though it should be noted that he’s old for his class as a guy who will be 24-years-old heading into his first full pro season in 2017. Still, I can’t help but remain intrigued by a veteran (by amateur standards, McClain has seen and done a lot) college arm with a solid fastball (velocity isn’t great at 85-91, but command and movement prop it up) and an outstanding changeup who has consistently shown over-the-top great control no matter the level of competition. It’s a profile I believe in. When I get players (and profiles) that I like, I tend to go a little overboard bothering friends in the game for comparisons. The first name that came to mind as a contemporary draft comp was Mike Morin, a prospect that I absolutely LOVED during his North Carolina days. Morin is my comp, but I also heard Brandon Kintzler, Deolis Guerra, and, I like this one a lot, Chris Devenski. A Morin/Devenski career path would be a fantastic outcome for a thirteenth round pick like McClain. Incidentally, Morin was a thirteenth round pick in 2012…
14.417 – RHP Kyle Davis
On Kyle Davis from April 2016…
Kyle Davis, a prospect I once thought would wind up better as a catcher than as a pitcher, has compiled strong numbers since almost his first day on campus. As I’ve said a lot in the preceding paragraphs, a big point in his favor is that he has the requisite three to four pitches needed to start. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll continue to hold down a rotation spot in the pros, but it gives him a shot.
Despite the optimism expressed above, I’ve never been a big Kyle Davis supporter. Nice college arm with a well-rounded arsenal (legit CB and average CU/SL), but arm action, build, and numbers (far more effective as a reliever in college) all point to him as a guy with a middle relief ceiling in pro ball. There’s nothing wrong with that in round fourteen if you think he can fulfill that promise, but I’m bearish on Davis as a pro. Worth pointing out that Seattle went with back-to-back-to-back $5,000 senior-signs. In rounds 8-9-10, the money-saving aspect would make some sense. In rounds 12-13-14, it’s a little odd. Not bad or anything — maybe they just happen to love these three pitchers and getting them cheap is a fun bonus for them — but still odd.
15.447 – LHP Danny Garcia
I’m stumped when it comes to Danny Garcia. The overall spread of stuff from the left side — 88-92 FB (93 peak), average or better low-80s split-CU, decent breaking ball — is encouraging even with the lack of a singular knockout pitch. His first two seasons at Miami (8.10 K/9 and 8.67 K/9) looked good. Then things got weird. Garcia remained effective as a junior weekend starter (3.50 ERA in 87.1 IP), but his strikeout rate nearly halved (4.74 K/9) and his walk rate almost doubled (1.84 BB/9 to 3.09 BB/9) from his sophomore season to his draft year. His strikeout rate remained anemic (4.85 K/9) in 42.2 innings as a pro. Could it be something as simple as the increased workload — not so much in total innings, but as a full-time starter rather than an occasional starter/swingman — that explains the decline in strikeouts? Or could it be a level of competition thing? Garcia pitched mainly against non-conference mid-week opponents during his sophomore season before getting challenged with a full ACC weekend slate as a junior. Or is it just the vagaries of small sample sizes rearing their ugly head once again? Whatever it is, Garcia feels like a potential matchup lefty in a best case scenario outcome. Good enough for the fifteenth round, but hard to ignore that junior year K/9 (4.74!) when trying to project him going forward. Not in love with this one.
17.507 – OF Dimas Ojeda
Dimas Ojeda hit .396/.442/.634 with 15 BB/28 K in his sophomore season at McLaren JC. Not bad at all, but a little less impressive when you see the team as a whole hit .342/.439/.579 this past year. Context matters. For what it’s worth, 25 of McLaren’s 33 drafted players since 1998 came on the mound. I honestly don’t know what that’s worth, if anything. Seemed like an interesting tidbit (kind of) worth sharing in lieu of any actual information about Ojeda. Seattle obviously saw something special enough in the big lefty’s stick to give him $100,000. Can’t argue too much with his .264/.343/.455 pro start. Early returns on his defense in left field — a position the lifelong first baseman only started playing this past season as a sophomore — have him as “serviceable” in the role. The offensive bar for a serviceable left fielder is damn high, so the M’s must really believe in him as a hitter. Worth a shot here.
18.537 – RHP Robert Dugger
Seattle has bested me here. I’ve got nothing from a scouting perspective when it comes to Robert Dugger out of Texas Tech. All I have to go on with Dugger are his impressive junior year (7.36 K/9 – 3.08 BB/9 – 52.2 IP – 2.56 ERA) numbers. He kept it up in pro ball with a 8.77 K/9 and 2.54 BB/9 across three levels including a late-season cameo at AAA.
19.567 – OF DeAires Moses
I likely know what you know about DeAires Moses. Or what you could know about DeAires Moses if you were to Google him yourself. He’s a speedy junior college center field prospect without much in the way of a standout offensive tool to project as much more than a fifth outfielder if it all goes right.
20.597 – OF Eric Filia
“Now he was a 24-year-old playing for the AquaSox, but…” is how I’ve started an email or two to friends asking for super-duper deep league fantasy sleepers from this past draft. Eric Filia’s crazy hot start to his pro career (.360/.451/.494 with 40 BB/19 K and 10/15 SB in 247 AB) might be the best of its kind in this draft class. That doesn’t drastically change the pre-draft evaluation of Filia, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. Big debut or not, I flat out like Filia and have for a while. From April 2016…
I’ve lumped David Greer and Eric Filia together because both guys can really, really hit. I think both guys can work themselves up the minor league ladder based on the strength of their hit tool (plate discipline included) alone. Defensive questions for each hitter put a cap on their respective ceilings (Greer intrigues me defensively with his plus arm and experience at 1B, 2B, 3B, and in the OF; Filia seems like left field or first base all the way), but, man, can they both hit.
If I had been paying closer attention to Seattle’s picks to this point, I probably wouldn’t be as surprised (and delighted!) to see the M’s snag both Greer and Filia in the same draft as I am. As it is, Seattle did really well to get a bat as advanced as Filia this late. All of the caveats that come with bat-first prospects apply here (and then some: Filia has never showed big power, is limited to 1B/corner OF, missed a college season with a bum labrum, missed a second college season due to academics), but in the twentieth round why not bet on a hitter?
21.627 – OF Austin Grebeck
The almost complete lack of power should be a disqualifying red flag, but I just can’t help liking Austin Grebeck. He’s such an annoying (in a good way) hitter that the idea of him going from the twenty-first round on the heels of a .070 junior season ISO all the way to the big leagues one day doesn’t strike me as nearly as crazy as it should. He’s still a super long shot with a limited ceiling (fifth outfielder?), but the things he does well (defend, run, throw, take pitches) should at least give him a chance to hang around in pro ball long enough to get noticed.
22.657 – OF Jansiel Rivera
23.687 – RHP Jack Anderson
It goes without saying that I can’t see every player I write about. That creates an interesting divide between players I think I know what I’m talking about because I’ve seen them (thus placing a higher emphasis on my own evaluation over what has been written and passed along to me otherwise) and players I think I know what I’m talking about because I specifically haven’t seen them (and can then go all-in on the notes that I have from actual talent evaluators without the fear of overrating my own firsthand take). I like detaching my own “scouting” bias from the process as much as I can, but sometimes I can’t help myself. In the case of Jack Anderson, I think it worked out for the best.
As far as I can tell, there hasn’t been anything draft-specific written about Anderson publicly. As a semi-local prospect to me, I had a few decent contacts that had seen him and could give me some quick notes but nothing I had was substantive enough that I felt great about publishing anything about him unless I could see him for myself. So, that’s exactly what I did and I’m thankful for it. Anderson is a ton of fun. His wicked submarine delivery gives him crazy amounts of deception. I was kind of but not quite behind the plate for some of his time on the mound and his delivery had me flinching for a few pitches as a spectator before I got the hang of it. When I saw him his fastball was mostly mid-80s (88 peak), but I’ve heard he hit 90 MPH later in the spring. He used the heater a ton, but managed to mix in a few interesting Frisbee sliders along the way. The swings hitters got on him were really awkward when they made contact at all. It’s easy to say after the fact, but one of the first thoughts I had after seeing him warm-up was there is no way there are 500 better draft prospects in the country than him. I immediately got a strong Chad Bradford vibe; this article cites his college coach’s familiarity with Joe Smith as another point of reference for what Anderson could be. A funky righthanded reliever capable of rolling bowling balls and getting loads of weak contact sounds great to me in round twenty-three. His batted ball breakdown in his pro debut — 46 ground balls, 12 line drives, 4 fly balls, and 3 pop-ups — backs it up. I’m all-in on Jack Anderson, future big league reliever.
24.717 – OF Trey Griffey
I didn’t put two and two together about the round the M’s selected Trey Griffey in until now. That’s actually a nice touch.
Sentimentality aside, this still feels way too early to throw away a pick for me. There are a lot of bigger and more credible reasons as to why the MLB Draft doesn’t attract more casual fans, and I’d be willing to hear arguments that silliness like this brings some much needed levity to the marathon that is day three of the draft, but I think selections like this ultimately hurt the product’s growth potential. If I’m a casual draft fan and hear that the Marines selected Ken Griffey’s son in the twenty-fourth round, my first thought might be “Hey, cool” or something like that. My next thought would likely be “Wait, he never even played in college? So what’s the point of following the draft past this point if a team like Seattle is willing to do this just past the draft’s midway point?” I like the draft at forty rounds because the amateur baseball scene across the country (and beyond) is teeming with talented players who are only one phone call away from getting a chance to show it off, but shenanigans like this back up the commonly held idea that going forty rounds is just too long. I’ve heard numbers floated by industry types ranging from ten to twenty-five as the sweet spot for enough rounds without going overboard; I guess I’d be fine with something on the high end of that range, though I’d really rather not see it dip any lower than thirty.
Anyway, Seattle is free to use their picks in any way they deem appropriate, so I won’t go full old man yells at cloud on this pick. I’ll just say the following and leave it alone: I wouldn’t have done what they did when they did it. Nobody asked me, though. None of this is Griffey’s fault, by the way. Best of luck to him in the upcoming East-West Shrine Game and NFL Draft process.
26.777 – LHP Elliot Surrey
A pick like this shows the downside to the Jack Anderson analysis above. I can’t recall ever seeing Elliott Surrey pitch in person at UC Irvine. On the surface, he’s a fairly similar prospect to Anderson: mid-80s fastball, good offspeed pitch (changeup in this case), some funk in his delivery, long college track record of success. Surrey might even have the objective edge as a lefthander who throws enough useful pitches (cutter, breaking ball) to have a history as a college starter under his belt. Maybe if I had seen Surrey like I did Anderson, I’d be more excited about this pick. As it is, it’s a fine pick in the twenty-sixth round for all the reasons mentioned above. I’m not inspired to write the impassioned review that Anderson got, but that’s not because of anything Surrey did or didn’t do. It’s the downside of seeing certain guys and potentially overvaluing them because it’s human nature to want to see those you “know” succeed more than those you don’t.
27.807 – RHP Paul Covelle
I’ve got next to nothing on Paul Covelle, a senior righthander from Franklin Pierce. His senior season (8.69 K/9 and 1.40 BB/9) was nice. And it was in line with what he’s done over his career as a Raven (8.28 K/9 and 2.68 BB/9). That’s nice to see.
28.837 – RHP Nathan Bannister
A strained forearm kept Nathan Bannister out of action after signing. I couldn’t find anything more recent than that, so it appears that treatment and rest should get him back on the mound next spring without having to undergo any type of surgical procedure. That’s good news for the former Arizona ace who relies heavily on precision command and plus control to help his otherwise unspectacular stuff play up. If Bannister makes it, it’ll be as a sinker/slider middle reliever.
29.867 – RHP Steven Ridings
Steven Ridings (Messiah) and Stephen Ridings (Haverford) played their college ball about one hundred miles apart from one another in Pennsylvania. The former righthanded pitcher was selected twenty-one rounds after the latter. I like Stephen quite a bit as you can read here, but Steven is no slouch, either. The Messiah Ridings can get it up to the mid-90s with the frame and athleticism to suggest a few more ticks to come. Combine that with stellar collegiate results as a senior (10.66 K/9, 2.26 BB/9, and 1.72 ERA in 83.2 IP) and it’s a little surprising to me that he fell this far. Really nice addition for Seattle this late.
34.1017 – RHP David Ellingson
I like David Ellingson probably more than I ought to for a thirty-fourth round pick. There’s nothing special about his profile — 6-1, 200 pound college relievers with decent fastballs (88-92, 93 peak) and above-average 77-79 breaking balls are kind of a dime or dozen in the college game — so let’s chalk up my pro-Ellingson feelings as an odd intuitive feel and move along.
36.1077 – 2B Joseph Venturino
Joe Venturino was a career .363/.432/.457 hitter with 73 BB/48 K and 59 SB in 680 AB at Division III Ramapo College. Pretty standard second base prospect without much pop, but with plenty of contact skills, speed, and patience. No idea about his glove. All in all, works for me in the thirty-sixth round.
Unsigned Prospects and Where You Can Find Them in 2017
Lyle Lin (Arizona State), Ryan Fucci (unsigned as his shoulder was deemed “too risky” by Seattle, but out of college eligibility and the M’s still technically hold his rights), Tyler Duncan (Crowder JC), Lincoln Henzman (Louisville), Kenyon Yovan (Oregon), Morgan McCullough (Oregon), Will Ethridge (Mississippi), Eli Wilson (Minnesota), James Reilly (James Madison), Camryn Williams (Dallas Baptist), Adley Rutschman (Oregon State)
There figure to be at least a few more trades in the remaining hours between now and the trade deadline at 4:00 PM EST, so I’ll do my best to keep this post updated with whatever short and sweet notes I have on any recent draft prospects who have been dealt.
UPDATED: It is well after 4 PM, so here we go…
Borchering is a player I once called one of my “absolute favorite bats” of the 2009 draft class. I also said he was an “outstanding pick” who I believed had the “best bat of any prep player.” He was the seventh best player in the 2009 MLB Draft, according to yours truly. So, what happened? Could a genius prognosticator possibly get it so wrong? Or is something more nefarious afoot? Probably the former, but let’s investigate anyway.
First, I should say that I remain a Borchering fan. I think he gets a bad rap in the prospect community for certain aspects of his game that aren’t entirely fair, but even a blind loyalist like myself finds it hard to argue with what seem to be the two biggest complaints concerning his game. Borchering’s strikeouts (28.1% of his career minor league at bats have ended in the sad, head shaking walk to the dugout) and subsequent lack of contact skills are obviously major concern one. Additionally, his defense at third, once thought to have the chance to be at least average in time (I said the following: “he’ll stick as a big league third baseman at least until his free agent years”), is now more appropriately graded as N/A, as any possibility of Borchering playing third base seems to out the window at this point. If he can hang in LF, however, then I think he could still reach the bigs as a potential power source capable of having some value through at least the end of his cheap rookie contract. If he had a discernible platoon split, preferably against lefthanded pitchers, then he’d make a really interesting, inexpensive platoon in left with the guy he was traded to Houston with.
Enough about the future, let’s go back to that aggressive draft ranking. Borchering as the seventh best player in the draft looks bad now, but, in my admittedly weak defense, the 2009 MLB Draft class was really, really shallow in hitting. In fact, I only had three position players among the top dozen 2009 prospects: Ackley (2nd overall) first, then Borchering (7th), and then Grant Green (8th). Further down the list you have the following: Donovan Tate (13th), Everett Williams (15th), Wil Myers (23rd), Luke Bailey (24th), Max Stassi (28th), Rich Poythress (29th), Matt Davidson (31st). Jason Kipnis (56th), Kyle Seager (65th), Nick Franklin (67th), Brett Jackson (70th), Billy Hamilton (80th), and Jonathan Singleton (99th). There was a decent hitter that I ranked 74th that year, but I’m not sure if Mike Trout has amounted to much of anything as of yet. Looking back at some of those names, I’m not quite sure how weak the draft class really was in hitting. It isn’t easy to compare recent drafts because so many players still have unfinished business developmentally, but a top group of Trout, Myers, Kipnis, Ackley, Singleton, Franklin, Hamilton, and, depending on your personal taste, some combination of Seager, Green, and/or Jackson really isn’t that bad. To take it a step ahead, though my faulty memory will surely leave a few names out, of the guys I didn’t rank in that top 100, both Brandon Belt and Paul Goldschmidt have shown promise as hitters as well.
Outside of ranking Krauss as the 89th best prospect in the 2009 Draft, I didn’t really write about the former Ohio star all that much. I remember liking his approach quite a bit, but being concerned that he might fall into the “tweener” trap that plagues so many bat-first corner outfield prospects. Without much value on defense, on the base paths, and, arguably, in the power department, there’s a lot of pressure on hitting/on-base ability to be legitimately great if you want a big league future. His 2012 AA performance has been encouraging, so I think there’s definitely hope he can make it in another year or so as a big league ready platoon (he has always drilled righties) bat.
Embarrassing admission alert: sometimes I completely forget about some of the players that I’ve written about. My dino-sized brain just can’t retain the baseball minutiae that it was able to hold. I remember liking Collier, so that’s good, right? Here’s what I said last year:
If one player stands out as a potential late round steal for Detroit, it’s San Jacinto JC RHP Tommy Collier (Round 22). Collier throws two plus pitches already, and, if healthy, has the chance to unleash his nasty slider once again.
You can never rule out minor league pitchers with hard fastballs and plus sliders eventually hanging on to pitch relief innings in the big leagues someday. Collier fits that mold.
Wrote this back in the very earliest days of this site way back in December 2009:
JR OF Leon Landry (2010) had better be prepared for the onslaught of Jared Mitchell comps sure to be thrown his way this spring. The comparisons between the two football playing outfielders work in some ways (both players have plus speed and are ridiculous athletes, but each guy had a below-average arm), but fall apart in other areas, most notably in the power department. Landry has already shown as much present power through two seasons of collegiate development as Mitchell did through three. A more interesting crop of first round caliber talents in 2010 may push Landry’s draft position down past where Mitchell went in 2009 (23rd overall), but I’m willing to go on the record and say that his forthcoming monster junior season will catapult his overall prospect stock past his former two sport teammate’s. He’s a potential plus defender in center with good range but a below-average arm for the position.
I was about 100 picks off with my bold first round prediction for Landry as he wound up getting selected with the 109th overall pick to the Dodgers in 2010. He’s shown some power this year, but the gain in slugging from 2011 to 2012 (200 points!) might just have a little something to do with Landry spending the current season in the Cal League. This was his updated report written just before the draft in the spring of 2010:
14. Louisiana State JR OF Leon Landry (plus speed; plus athlete; raw in all phases; big power potential; legit defensive tools, but extremely inconsistent tracking balls in the air; 5-11, 195 pounds)
I think much of what was said then holds true today. Landry’s strengths remain his speed and, Cal League mirage or not, power upside. Mr. Obvious is hear to note that, yes, those are both pretty good strengths to have. I’m curious about whether or not he’s made any progress in the two areas of his game that concern me the most: rawness at the plate and rawness in the field. Landry’s weak BB-rate is a pretty good indicator of his continued rawness at the plate, though there could be underlying scouting observations (e.g. pitch recognition skills) that would tell a more colorful story. His rawness in the field is probably the most interesting single facet of the game at this point in his development: if he can play a competent or better CF, then he’s a future big leaguer, exact role (platoon partner to fifth OF) to be determined. If he’s limited to LF, things get dicey.
I miss February 2010, a far simpler time when a comparison to Boof Bonser had relevance on a draft website. Here’s Rosin’s first appearance on the site:
JR RHP Seth Rosin (2010) is build like a tank (6-6, 245) with the heavy artillery (sinking fastball at 88-92 MPH, peaking at 94) to go to battle. He’s secondary stuff (inconsistent mid-70s CB and a low-80s CU that needs a ton of work) currently lags behind, but I know of plenty scouts who believe both pitches will develop into at least usable options by the time he hits the high minors. Those scouts see him as a possible back of the rotation starter down the line, but I think his ceiling is closer to that of Boof Bonser. I know Bonser has 60 big league starts to his credit, but they were largely ineffectual innings. Now that he has switched to the bullpen in Boston, I’ve got a hunch that Bonser’s stuff will play up and make him an effective reliever going forward. Rosin’s future could very well play out the same way. Ineffectual fifth starter or dependable middle reliever? You make the call.
There was some good discussion in the comments section that fleshed the idea out with a little more depth:
The comparison to Bonser wasn’t meant to insult Rosin. Heck, Boof was a first round pick back in 2000, a draft spot that Rosin can only dream about. When I see Rosin, I see a pitcher without a current above-average or better secondary pitch at present. Bonser’s slider was/is miles ahead of Rosin’s curve. I acknowledged that many believe he’ll develop the offspeed stuff to pitch in the big leagues as a starter, but that’s something I’d need to see this spring before ranking him any higher on my personal board.
I still worry some about Rosin’s lack of a consistent second pitch, but his fastball, in terms of both his always excellent command and his professional uptick in velocity, has been so damn good that I’m not so sure he can’t find a niche in the big leagues based on his plus heater alone. I just so happened to be Gchatting with a pal as the Phillies/Giants trade went down. He asked for my thoughts, so here they were…totally uncensored, unedited, unformatted, and unsomethingsomething:
as for rosin, he’s 23.5 years old and still in high-A but ready for AA
real good fastball (velocity up in relief like most guys, so he’s mid-90s more regularly now), secondaries still lag behind (have heard the CU is ahead of the breaking ball — now a SL — but the SL has more of a chance in the long run), and, yeah, he’s still a real big dude (6-6, 250)2:15 PM real good minor league numbers, too2:16 PM like i said, should go right to Reading…if he does well there, he could be fighting for a spot in the big boy bullpen next spring
There you have it, folks: a glimpse into the inner-workings of a draft madman. I failed to originally mention to my buddy that Rosin has been pitching as a starter as of late. Many consider this an important detail — they aren’t wrong — but, for me, Rosin’s always been one of those fringe starting pitching prospect/really good middle relief prospect. Let him start now to get him the innings that could help him hone his offspeed stuff, but realize that his most likely destination is the seventh inning. Frequent readers know I like to comp players to death (legal notice: no player has literally died due to a comp), so it should come as no surprise that I think Rosin sounds a lot like another new Phillie reliever from a four-year university who was once selected within the top four rounds (breath) and just so happens to have a history starting in the past (breath) but has seen his career move forward as he developed a more well-rounded aresenal of pitches (breath) yet still remaining focused on his FB/SL combo, Josh Lindblom. My high school English teacher would be so proud/horrified at that sentence. Anyway, Rosin is Lindblom who is current injured Phillies reliever Mike Stutes. Comps on comps on comps on comps.
And, finally, the original Rosin/Minnesota baseball post inspired what I still consider to be the greatest comment I’ve ever gotten. I’ve reddened up the font a bit so that the full fury of his comment could be realized:
First of all I would just like to say that It is really sad that I would even acknowledge the moron that would write something with such little to no validity to anything that he would say. This guy prob just thought it would be a good idea to google search the guys on the Minnesota team and come up with no information outside of that. Also prob got cut from a high school baseball or if he did make the team he is prob that guy that thinks he is good enought to play college but never got asked let alone talked to any big league team Yet if you ask all his fat beer bellied never played a sport friends he told them he should be playing for the twins. Sorry about it worthless blogger. Get a job and move out of your parents basement.
Let’s move on.
I like Tommy Joseph, I really do. Unfortunately, I don’t love him as much as everybody wanted me to today. Maybe I’m nuts, but it sure seemed like every reporter rushed to praise Joseph through the words of their unnamed “Rival NL Executive,” capped off by the always funny in his special little way Jon Heyman tweeting that he was told Tommy Joseph was “GREAT,” a sentiment that can only really be read in the voice of Tony the Tiger. I think Joseph is GOOD, and good is nothing to be down about. Truthfully, even getting me to the point where I’m cool with calling Joseph GOOD took some time. All week long, in anticipation of Hunter Pence winding up a Giant, I had prepared myself to stay calm if Joseph was the prospect centerpiece of a Phillies/Giants trade. “He’s nothing but a younger, slightly better version of a player already in their system (Sebastian Valle),” I thought. On top of that, I’ve never personally understood all of the Valle hype — raise an incredulous brow if you must, but Baseball America did have him as the third ranked Phils prospect heading into the season — so I’ve been at a loss in trying to figure out why I should be happy the Phillies seemed so intent on acquiring his (younger, slightly better) doppelgänger? So how did a stubborn guy like me begin to soften his anti-Joseph stance? Read below:
Tommy Joseph (Arizona) – 6-1, 210 catcher from the same high school as Tim Alderson and Brandon Wood who has scouts buzzing this spring; some have him as a late first rounder and a top three overall catching prospect; big arm and tons of power; I want to put him higher, but still haven’t seen/heard/read enough to be sold on him – if somebody has a compelling case, I’d love to hear it (that’s not me being snarky, I mean it – fill me in!); Arizona commit who has been compared to Ryan Doumit with more playable power
That was one of the earlier things I did on this site. The scouting notes are largely inconsequential compared to the larger context surrounding them. There was much wisdom in my younger self. “Still haven’t seen/heard/read enough to be sold on him” showed the values of patience, honesty, and abject transparency. “If somebody has a compelling case, I’d love to hear it” was an example of the importance of open-mindedness and the willingness to learn what we don’t already know. “Ryan Doumit with more playable power” was, well, honestly that was actually just a way of shoehorning Doumit into the conversation. Cool name, solid player, and the creepiest soulless black eyes you’ll ever have the privilege of staring into. Observe:
Not a day goes by when I don’t try to casually mention Ryan Doumit and his eyes of darkness in my everyday life. Now that this stroll down memory lane has taken a horrible turn, let’s just skip ahead to my initial unedited Gchat response:
maybe i’m just down on him because he’s just not my sort of catcher
ruiz is pretty much my ideal for the position – body type, athleticism, thinks like a pitcher, well-rounded offensive game1:57 PM joseph, and valle for that matter, are both just a little too one-dimensional for me: huge power, but little patience and questionable defensethat said, joseph’s power might be so good that it overcomes other shortcomings. plus, all the reports on his defense are exciting – they say he’s really, really improved back there1:58 PM so what the hell…i’m on board
I ranked Cox as the 36th best prospect available in the 2010 MLB Draft. On one hand I wasn’t as overboard in love with him as some seemed to be at the time. On the other hand, there’s no escaping the fact that I thought he’d be a really solid professional third baseman in relatively short order. On a different hand, I overshot the mark on arguably every single one of his tools, especially his hit tool, raw power, and foot speed. On my last hand (yes, I have four hands), I’m not quite ready to jump off the Cox as solid big league third baseman bandwagon just yet. Cox has moved quickly as a pro and I think a consolidation year is in order. Let him finish the year in AAA, then give him another half year at the same level in 2013. If the Marlins are patient, they might yet get the player many thought Cox could be. Here’s what I wrote on Cox before the draft in 2010:
Easily confused fellow that I am, I don’t quite understand the negativity surrounding Cox’s power potential that has come to the surface this season. It seems to me that he can’t really win with some people. Last year people oohed and aahed as he flashed prodigious raw power, but disappointed in the plate discipline department. This year he’s taken a much more patient, contact-oriented approach, but is getting heat for not hitting for the same power as he did his freshman year. I realize slugging .600+ and socking 20 extra base hits in college (like Cox has done so far in 2010) isn’t quite the feat it appears to be at first blush, but it’s still a decent indicator that the guy hasn’t been reduced to a singles only hitter this year. Now imagine the possibility that good professional coaching can help Cox unlock the secret of maintaining his gains in plate discipline and a high contact rate while simultaneously helping him rediscover the big power stroke of his first collegiate season. Sounds pretty good, right?
As arguably the draft’s top position player prospect, much has already been written about Cox’s toolset. The cliff notes version is this: potential plus bat, above-average present power but plus projection, 45/50 runner, plus arm, good defender. His worst tool is probably his speed, and, as you can see, even that project to be around average. I think Cox’s ceiling is below that of your typical top half of the first round college bat, but he’s still a relatively safe pick to be an above-average regular third baseman for a first division club.
Polish. That’s the word that first came to mind as I sat watching Seattle’s draft last June. In an attempt to preempt any confusion, no, the Mariners didn’t draft a bunch of players from Poland. They did draft a player from nearby Germany, but we’ll get to him in a bit. I’m talking about polish in the highly refined baseball skill sense. Let’s talk polish…
Everything interesting about Virginia LHP Danny Hultzen’s amateur career has already been written, so let’s take a more timely approach and discuss his most recent body of work with a little help from a pair of authors from two of the best Seattle sites in the universe. The esteemed Jeff Sullivan’s hot sexy update of Hultzen’s AFL progress confirms that the young lefty’s velocity has maintained his junior year gains (92.5 MPH average, 95.1 MPH peak) while marc w provides interesting details on the progress of his change (spoiler: sharp as ever) and slider (spoiler 2: shows flashes of greatness, but inconsistent). It is silly to compare every lefty with a great changeup to Cole Hamels, but that’s a pretty logical ceiling here, at least in terms of potential performance.
Virginia JR LHP Danny Hultzen: plus command of all pitches; 88-91, will definitely touch 94; velocity jump due to 20 pounds of added muscle since high school, currently sitting 91-93, peaking 94-95; will throw upper-80s two-seam FB with good sink; 77-78 CB; plus 78-82 CU; quality 82-85 SL that he leans on at times
I can really appreciate the types of middle infield draft prospects that Seattle seems to target each year: athletic, versatile defensively, known to have a good approach to hitting. Clemson SS Brad Miller is/does all of those things, plus comes with a little bonus pop. In a weak class of college bats, Miller has the chance to really stand out as a middle infielder with starter’s upside. He’s Kyle Seager with more defensive upside.
Miller goes coast to coast as this season’s top collegiate shortstop prospect, beginning the year at the top spot and very deservedly finishing at number one as well. I’ve long held the position that the current Clemson shortstop has what it takes to stick at the position, an opinion tied far more closely to his defensive tools — most notably the speed and athleticism that give him well above-average range up the middle — than his present, sometimes erratic, ability. At the plate, he’s done everything expected of him and more. I’m admittedly more bullish on his power upside than most and can see him further tapping into said upside to the tune of 15+ homers annually. Even if the power doesn’t quite reach those levels, Miller’s consistent hard contact and good approach should help keep his batting average and on-base percentage at more than acceptable numbers for a starting middle infielder. It may be a popular comp for a lot of players, but I think a comparison between Brad Miller and former ACC star and current Oriole Brian Roberts is apt.
Mountain Pointe HS (AZ) 1B Kevin Cron is now at TCU after a deal with Seattle fell through. As a prospect, his power will define him…but you knew that already. What may or may not be known is what position he’ll be playing by the time his name is called again in 2014. Whispers about a potential position switch – I’ve heard both 3B and RF mentioned as possibilities – linger, but any defensive change would be contingent on his college conditioning program helping him firm up and shed some weight. Luckily for Cron, first base might be alright for him if his bat takes care of its end of the bargain. As mentioned in the pre-draft profile posted below, I can’t wait to compare and contrast Kevin’s college performance with his older brother CJ’s.
Cron has made headlines this spring, first as the younger brother of the amazing CJ Cron and then as a pretty damn good draft power hitting draft prospect himself. He’ll likely be picked too high to honor his commitment to TCU, but, man, I’d love to see him take a crack at the college game – the direct statistical comparison you could then make to his brother would be fascinating, I think. Cron the younger caught some in high school, but, like his bro, probably doesn’t have the requisite athleticism to catch at the next level. I’ve heard some quiet buzz about an attempted move to third, but I think that is probably from people who would hate to see his plus arm go to waste at first. Even working under the likely assumption he’s a first baseman in pro ball, Cron is a top five round prospect due to his highly advanced hit tool and gigantic raw power.
A copy/past fail left Mount Olive RHP Carter Capps off my list of the draft’s Top 250 prospects, but I’m sure the third round selection and half a million bucks helped him get over the unintentional snub. Capps is one of those guys – Stanford/Dodgers LHP Chris Reed is another – with both the frame and stuff to start, but, who, for some reason or another, looks so much better in shorter outings. I know almost all pitchers look better out of the bullpen, but Capps looks like a different pitcher altogether. At his best he’ll throw two plus pitches including a fastball that approaches triple digits (in short stints only) and an upper-70s to low-80s slider that flashes plus. He’s far too young to label him a reliever now and forever, but I do think the bullpen is his eventual home…and that’s a good thing.
Mount Olive FR RHP Carter Capps (2011): 94-96 FB with good movement; more commonly 87-91; saw him 90-92; 84-86 SL with plus upside that has lost some velocity, now upper-70s; upper-70s CU; 6-5, 220
There is no question Seattle went into the draft hoping to bolster their organizational depth behind the plate. Selecting Virginia C John Hicks was a good first step of the plan. He has above-average power upside and a knack for hitting the ball hard. I think his defense is fine, but if catching doesn’t work out he might be athletic enough to contribute defensively at a few other (corner outfield and first base most likely) spots.
Not too long ago I compared Hicks to teammate Kenny Swab and said I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a similar career path, i.e. become an unsignable mid-round pick and go back to school as a senior to boost his stock. I was obviously wrong as it now seems Hicks’ athleticism, plus arm, and emerging power could make him a top ten round selection.
I’ve talked about draft stacking™ before, but I like discussing the idea so much that I’m going to repeat it here. Draft stacking occurs when a team drafts multiple prospects from the same position (pitchers excluded) within five rounds of each other. Bonus points when the prospects come from different places (i.e. one is from college and the other from high school). Double bonus points when the prospects are selected in back-to-back rounds. After selecting college catcher Hicks in the fourth round, Seattle turned right back around and nabbed Hagerty HS (FL) C Tyler Marlette in the fifth. Well done, Mariners. The only thing holding me back from publicly declaring my undying love to the Seattle front office is Marlette’s questionable future behind the plate. Draft stacking doesn’t work if one of the players is going to switch positions! Hopefully Marlette’s substantial defensive tools are actualized so that last summer’s breakout star can continue his ascension from showcase standout to big league catcher.
Marlette has as much upside at the plate as any high school catcher sans Swihart, but questions about his defense continue to suppress his stock. The shame of it is that he has above-average defensive tools – he’s surprisingly natural behind the plate – but lacks the polish that comes with years of practice at the position. The aforementioned upside as a hitter works in much the same way. In batting practice Marlette is a monster, but he’s more of a gap-to-gap hitter in game action thus far. A solid defensive catcher with plus power is a heck of a prospect, of course. An iffy defensive catcher who may or may not stick with gap power is less exciting. This is where teams who have seen Marlette multiple times over a couple of years have a huge leg up on what I do.
I had Rancho Cucamonga HS (CA) OF James Zamarripa down as a college guy, so I lost track of him somewhat this past spring. He’s more advanced than a typical prep prospect, but his ceiling (fourth outfielder) isn’t that exciting.
Virginia 3B Steven Proscia also isn’t especially exciting, but he’s a solid prospect with the chance to be a starter down the line. His strengths – arm, athleticism, power – mesh well with what most teams look for out of a third baseman.
Most people love coffee. Every few months I’ll try a little sip, but it just doesn’t work for me. So many people enjoy it every day that I’m smart enough to know that it isn’t “bad” per se, but rather a specific taste that I just don’t enjoy as much as others. Proscia is a little bit like coffee for me. His defense at third is very good, he’ll show you a nice potential power/speed combo most days, and his athleticism is well above-average for the position. He’s a good prospect by any measure. Yet somehow after taking everything I’ve heard about him and having seen him play a few times myself, I remain unmoved by his upside. Solid player, no doubt; he wouldn’t be on this list otherwise. I just see him as much more likely to wind up a potential four-corners utility player than a starting third baseman.
Texas State RHP Carson Smith is similar in many ways to Carter Capps. I prefer Smith, however, due to his more impressive fastball (the movement he gets on the pitch gives him the edge), more consistent third pitch (a changeup that could be quite good with some work), and better command of his breaking stuff. The eighth rounder is my second favorite prospect taken by Seattle this year.
Texas State JR RHP Carson Smith: very good athlete; 91-93 FB with great sink, 94-95 peak; sits 95-98 out of bullpen, 91-94 as starter; above-average potential with SL; CU with plus potential; commands CB well; 6-5, 215
Patch HS (Germany) SS Cavan Cohoes is a great story (Germany!) and a fun gamble for the Mariners to take. He’s also super raw at the plate, tremendously athletic, and really, really fast. Any more info than that would be me making stuff up because I’ve never seen the guy play and haven’t talked directly with anybody who has seen him either.
Tenth round pick Siena 2B Dan Paolini wound up beating my Dan Uggla draft comp (see below) by an entire round. I have a friend who has seen Paolini a lot who compares him to former big leaguer Mike Stanley as a hitter. Weird comp, right? My friend does this for a living – the baseball evaluating part, not the comp making part – so I’m not quite ready to say he’s crazy for the Stanley/Paolini comp but…well, let’s just say that I’m here to reiterate that I’m not the one going out on a limb suggesting a tenth round pick will play 15 seasons and hit close to 200 home runs. I’d take my Uggla anecdote to heart (again, see below) before getting too worked up about Paolini’s future one way or another, though I do want to profess my love of watching Paolini swing the bat.
Paolini has more present power than any college middle infielder. The question that remains to be answered is whether or not his long swing will lead to enough hits to make that power useful at the next level. If he doesn’t hit, he’s in trouble – only his power rates as above-average at this point, with the potential for an average hit tool down the road his only other tool of note. There’s a little sleeper Dan Uggla upside here, if everything breaks right. Of course, think about the original Uggla before getting too excited – how many things had to break exactly right for him to become the Dan Uggla we know and love (even as a long-time fan of a rival division team I have to admit his uppercut corkscrew swing is fun to watch) today? Paolini will probably start out around the same place as Uggla, a former 11th round pick.
Dayton LHP Cameron Hobson (Round 11) is hot and cold from outing to outing. When he’s going well, his fastball sits in the low-90s and he’s able to throw three pitches for strikes. It’ll be interesting to see if the Mariners view him as a starter or a reliever in the long run.
Dayton JR LHP Cameron Hobson: 87-91 FB with movement, sitting closer to 90-92 this year; good SL; solid CB; developing CU with potential; plus makeup; 6-1, 205 pounds
Franklin Pierce C Mike Dowd (Round 12) is fairly simple to understand. His arm is big league quality, but his other tools all come up a little bit short. In completely unrelated news, Henry Blanco has played 900 career games with an OBP of .293. Alright, back to Dowd: if he hits even a little bit, he’s a legitimate backup catching prospect.
Dowd, our lone Division II star on the list, has managed the strike zone brilliantly for Franklin Pierce while also ranking second among qualifiers in both BA and SLG. His arm may be his only above-average tool, but his bat, gap power, and defense should all play just fine at the next level.
UAB OF Jamal Austin (Round 13) can run, field, and take a pitch. I like that skillset. For as much shit as Juan Pierre has gotten from fans over his career (most, but not all of it justified), he’s now at the tail end of a twelve year career that has made him over fifty million bucks. Jamal Austin would be incredibly lucky to have anywhere close to as good a pro run. My worry with Austin remains the same as it has always been: will his inability to drive the ball prevent pitchers from throwing him anything but strikes? If that’s the case, I worry about him losing his greatest offensive asset, patience.
Love his speed/defense/approach, but do have some doubts about his almost complete lack of power and questionable arm. He sort of reminds me of a college-aged version of Juan Pierre and I’m not sure how his game will translate to the pros. The higher up you go, the more difficult it is to get away with having little power.
Local (to me) product LaSalle RHP Cody Weiss (Round 14) has a fastball that touches 93 and an upper-70s curve that comes and goes as an effective second pitch. His spotty command and lack of physicality limit his upside, so, um, consider his upside limited.
SO RHP Cody Weiss (2011): 90-92 FB, peak 93; high-70s CB; iffy command; 6-0, 195
Loyal readers know by now that I have a huge weak spot for college seniors with outstanding four year track records at the plate. Florida State OF Mike McGee (Round 15) might be stretched in center, but he’s a good defender in either corner, and his elite plate discipline should make him a favorite to many as he rises up Seattle’s organizational chain. Whether or not Mike McGee makes it in pro ball is irrelevant to me; the guy has proven time and time again that he is, and please excuse me for the terrible cliché, a ballplayer. I hate that I’ve been reduced to such a hacky turn of phrase, but that’s what Mike McGee does to me. Check him out if he visits a minor league ballpark near you and you’ll understand. You can break down his individual tools and try to project what kind of player he’ll be once fully developed, or you can just watch him and appreciate that he plays the sport the way it ought to be played. Hey, better yet: do both! Or neither, whatever, do what what you want: it’s a free country.
[great approach; average speed; 88-90 FB, 92-93 peak; very good upper-70s SL; CU; drafted as a pitcher last year; good CB]
I devoted an entire post to Oregon C Jack Marder (Round 16) after the draft, so, yeah, you could say I like him. I was totally on board with Billy Beane when he made his “not selling jeans” comment – good players come in all shapes and sizes, after all – but I also think athleticism, and more specifically how athleticism relates with mechanics, muscle memory, and coordination is important. You don’t need to look good in a uniform to be a good athlete, but athleticism as a whole shouldn’t be ignored. Marder is an outstanding athlete, but more impressive is how he is able to channel his athleticism towards relevant baseball skills. His athleticism helps his defense behind the plate, his swing, and his throws to second and third. I’m intrigued.
SO 2B Jack Marder (2012): average runner; legit plus bat speed; very instinctual, high energy, just a fun player to watch; plus defender at 1B, one of the best I’ve seen at college level; has experience playing every position on diamond; with time should be above-average at either second, third, or an outfield corner, as well as average at shortstop; strong arm; will be tried at C this spring (5/11 update: soft hands, plus mobility, well above-average pop times, natural footwork, accurate arm, positive reports on feel for pitch sequencing and leadership of staff); great line drive producing swing, textbook front shoulder rotation that I love; above-average athleticism; easy top ten round guy, could go as high as round five; 6-0, 180 pounds; R/R
Miami OF Nathan Melendres (Round 17) has the tools to be remembered someday as a complete steal who had no business being taken as late as the seventeenth round. He can run, throw, and defend as well as any college outfielder in his class, but his crude approach to hitting has kept him from being labeled a legit five-tool player by the experts. He’ll need to work on his plate discipline – not just taking more pitches, but swinging at better pitches – if he hopes to be remembered at all.
[serious tools, but very raw; potential plus defender in CF; hacker; plus speed; above-average to plus arm; 5-11, 185 pounds]
Horizon HS (AZ) LHP Nick Valenza (Round 18) reminds me a little bit of Indians draft pick Dillon Peters. He’s short, throws hard, and shows the makings of enough pitchers to start at the next level. Once you get past his lack of physical stature, you can see that his stuff is pretty interesting. His biggest bugaboo at the pro level may be his inconsistent control.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Palm Beach CC C Luke Guarnaccia (Round 19) is a Mariners draft pick with good athleticism and a strong defensive reputation. Picking a favorite out of Hicks, Dowd, Marder, and Guarnaccia comes down to little more than personal preference at this point, as all four share fairly similar strengths and weaknesses as prospects.
Did I get carried away after three weeks of performances from Emporia State 2B Dillon Hazlett (Round 20) or what? Whenever anybody starts thinking I know what I’m talking about, I’m going to refer them to the passage below. Silly hyperbole aside, Hazlett is a nice prospect who can handle the bat just fine. Not Ackley-level fine, of course, but good enough to consider his bat, defensive versatility (like Ackley, I think he’s best in CF), and speed/base running instincts worth following through his minor league travails.
Name to know = North Carolina JR 1B Dillon Hazlett. I first heard the poor man’s Dustin Ackley comps coming out of Chapel Hill a few months ago, but dismissed them as nothing more than a coaching staff excited about a junior college transfer ready to step in and help fill the gigantic hole left behind by Ackley’s departure. The comp, like most are, was built on convenience – both players are way too athletic to be college first basemen, run well, and have questionable power upsides. That’s what the comp was trying to express, I think. Nobody actually meant that Hazlett would step in and show off a hit tool quite like the one Ackley had shown. Hazlett, though impressive so far, has a long way to go to even enter Ackley’s prospect stratosphere. Then again, Ackley’s final junior year line was .417/.517/.763. SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT, but Hazlett has put up a .467/.541/.700 line through 9 games. Just store the name way, way, way in the back of your mind.
Stanford RHP Jordan Pries (Round 30) is a pitchability righthander who relies heavily on a near-plus upper-70s breaking ball. That makes sense because his mid-80s fastball alone wouldn’t cut it. I hadn’t expected Pries to be a high draft pick or anything, but it was a surprise to see him fall all the way to the thirtieth round. Used as a starter at Stanford, Pries could experience enough of a boost in stuff pitching in relief to make him interesting. His numbers were better across the board in six long relief outings than they were in his six pro starts, whatever that means.
Stanford JR RHP Jordan Pries: 86-87 FB; very good 76-78 breaking ball
Kansas State LHP Kyle Hunter (Round 31) is easy to lose among the influx of college pitchers with the same first name/last initial combination. There’s Kyle Hallock, Kyle Hald, Kyle Hendricks…and Kyle Hunter. Hunter has been on the prospect radar for years as a lefthander with solid stuff. He mixes his pitches well and has above-average command. With luck, he’ll carve out a home as a lefty reliever somewhere, someday.
I was happy to see Seattle give a chance to Miami C David Villasuso (Round 42). His power could help him sneak into the big leagues as a backup, but only if can first convince teams he can handle quality pitching behind the plate.
SR C David Villasuso has the power teams often consider gambling on, but his defensive limitations keep him from being a definite draft selection for me.
I apologize for starting the week with a math problem, but…
Really busy baseball watching weekend +
Blue Screen of Death seconds before I hit post +
stupidly trying to type a post directly on site and not in Word doc +
Wordpress autosave feature not quite living up to my misguided hopes =
A really quick uncut summation of what I’ve seen out of Anthony Rendon’s biggest competitor for the draft’s number one spot, UCLA JR RHP Gerrit Cole. This is a rare case where I can combine all sorts of fun factors (video, three separate years of live personal “scouting,” and, as always, all of the written and spoken information from people way smarter than I am about this stuff that I could possibly digest) into formulating an opinion on a prospect. Here’s what I’ve got…
UCLA JR RHP Gerrit Cole (2011): 4-seam: really easy 92-96 four-seam FB, 97-99 FB peak; 98 on last pitch of opening day complete game; told by scout that he is unique in that he appears to hit 98 “whenever he wants” with FB; between velocity, movement, and improved command, the FB is a legit plus-plus pitch; speaking of command…relatively poor FB command through middle of sophomore season, but the improvement in this area has been nothing short of remarkable; holds velocity exceptionally well; 2-seam: 92-94 two-seam FB with above-average sink; Cutter: not personally 100% sold on the difference between the two-seam and the cutter (remember: I’m no professional, just a guy with a hobby), but enough smart people are labeling the pitch as a cut fastball at 87-91; Slider: plus 81-87 SL (more commonly and more effectively thrown harder at 86-88); was clocked harder still (consistently 87-89) on SL this past summer; Change: personal favorite offering is his excellent sinking extra firm 83-87 (!) CU with plus upside; pitch seems to get better with every outing;
By now regular readers know that I love forcing comps where they don’t necessarily belong. In the unlikely scenario I am ever forced to give a comp for Gerrit Cole or be forced to watch Miguel Cairo swing at the first pitch in what seemed like every single at bat during his Phillies tenure on loop, I’d throw this one out there as a potential ceiling: potential future teammate Felix Hernandez. Both have/had explosive fastballs, plus upside with unusually hard slider and changeup, similar enough builds (this one might be a stretch…), early questions about command and delivery…obviously this isn’t a perfect comp, but it is a rough outline of what kind of package Cole will bring to whatever pro team is lucky enough to draft him.