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Brendan McKay, Adam Haseley, Pavin Smith, and Drew Ellis are the four clear top tier ACC hitting prospects in the 2017 MLB Draft. I’m not sure anybody would quibble with the first three — though you’re free to do so, of course — so that leaves Ellis as the only somewhat controversial pick. I’d like to think my love for him is pretty well established by now, so I won’t go into too much detail why I think the present .405/.500/.759 hitter with plus raw power and more walks than strikeouts deserves serious first round consideration. Some clarity on his long-term defensive home would be nice, but I’m not sure it’s necessarily needed with how he’s hitting. As a third baseman, he’s a potential star. Same for a corner outfield spot. At first base, the bar is raised high enough that you’d have to knock him down the board just a bit, but not all that far considering the confidence I have in him continuing to hit past the necessary threshold to start in the big leagues there. There’s more to player evaluation than college production (duh), but worth pointing out that Ellis and McKay, more likely to go out as a hitter with every passing four homer day, have very similar 2017 numbers. If the latter is a slam dunk starter at first at the next level, then why couldn’t Ellis do the same if that’s what it comes down to?
Beyond that foursome, things are wide open. I’d be willing to hear arguments on any of the following seven players being tier one prospects: Taylor Walls, Brian Miller, Colby Fitch, Gavin Sheets, Stuart Fairchild, Logan Warmoth, and Devin Hairston. That’s six up-the-middle prospects plus the seemingly unstoppable bat of Sheets. The next tier down includes too many players to even bother listing at this point. I mean, I’ll do it anyway because writing more than necessary is true to my #brand, but it’s almost too many names to derive much meaning beyond “damn, the ACC is stacked this year.” There are consensus favorites with impressive tools who have underwhelmed (note: we’re only using “underwhelmed” in the context of incredibly high expectations of on-field numbers; none of these guys are having bad years by any stretch, it’s just that they are showing one or more flaws that would need to be addressed by any interested front office) from a performance standpoint to date (Evan Mendoza, Logan Taylor, Carl Chester, Kyle Datres, Joe Dunand) as well as personal favorites like Rhett Aplin, Wade Bailey, Reed Rohlman, Trevor Craport, Cody Roberts, Ben Breazeale, Robbie Coman (who, incidentally, I’ll be very glad once he’s drafted and gone from my life since my fingers want to spell his last name “Comand” every single time), Ernie Clement, Tyler Lynn, Bruce Stell, and Charlie Cody…damn, the ACC really is stacked this year.
Here are some All-Draft Prospect Teams that I whipped up while my computer was dead last week. I’m going to try to do these for as many conferences as I can squeeze in. The depth of the ACC let me go three teams deep. Here’s the first team…
C – Colby Fitch
1B – Pavin Smith
2B – Taylor Walls
SS – Logan Warmoth
3B – Drew Ellis
OF – Adam Haseley, Brian Miller, Stuart Fairchild
I think every one of these guys has been covered by now with the exception of Stuart Fairchild. The Wake Forest center fielder has one of this year’s most well-rounded skill sets. Averages dot his card with above-averages within range (perhaps a plus for speed) depending on how much you like him. Fairchild is also one of this class’s “great approach, hasn’t really shown it” types. Everybody who has seen him has raved to me about his pitch recognition, ability to spoil good pitchers’s pitches, and general knowledge of the strike zone, but his BB/K ratios have been up (39/42 last year) and down (18/40 as a freshman, 22/37 so far this year) throughout his college career. Count me in as a believer that the results will catch up to his talent in pro ball. Fairchild has the ceiling of a first-division regular in center with a mature enough present skill set that seems too strong across the board to result in a complete flame out. In English, I like both his ceiling and floor quite a bit.
What you think about Taylor Walls‘s defense should dictate how high you’re willing to run him up your board. Indecisive internet draft writer that I am, I vacillate between shortstop and second base on him far more often than I’d like to admit. Case in point: when I wrote this last night, I decided on second base for him. The logic there was simple: his arm may be a bit light for short and erring on the side of caution in cases like these (i.e, if there’s debate on whether or not an amateur guy will stick at a position, chances are he won’t) often proves the smartest strategy in the long run. On the other hand, his range is great, he’s an above-average runner (a solid proxy for athleticism), and some of the mixed opinions on his arm have it closer to playing plus than anything. So…I don’t know. I’m leaning shortstop today after having him as a second baseman yesterday. Ask me again tomorrow and I might make him a free safety. Wherever he plays, he’s a keeper. Maybe you don’t see a regular when looking at him (or maybe you do), but it’s hard not to see a big league player in some capacity.
I’m still not convinced Adam Haseley isn’t a top ten player in this class. Maybe I’m nuts. I can live with that. I also don’t see why the aforementioned Drew Ellis can’t crack the top thirty. These are really good players. The feeling I get about Ellis reminds me a little bit how I felt about Edwin Rios, sixth round steal by the Dodgers in 2015. I loved Rios then (ranked 119, drafted 192) and I love Ellis even more now. The second he inevitably falls out of the first round, he’ll then become one of this draft’s best value picks.
C – Cody Roberts
1B – Brendan McKay
2B – Wade Bailey
SS – Devin Hairston
3B – Charlie Cody
OF – Tyler Lynn, Logan Taylor, Carl Chester
Happy to keep banging the drum for Charlie Cody from now until draft day. He can hit. Putting him back at his high school position of third base in the pros takes a significant leap of faith after he’s spent the past three years splitting time between DH and LF, but I’m enough of a believer in his bat that moving him to an outfield corner wouldn’t torpedo his value altogether. I like Wade Bailey a lot as well; his stock should keep rising considering the general dearth of quality middle infielders in this college class.
I’ve mentally gone back and forth between Pavin Smith and Brendan McKay a dozen times this spring with the expectation I do it another half-dozen times between now and the draft. I’m not really sure you can go wrong with either at this point. Smith feels like the better all-around hitter (by a razor thin margin), but McKay has more present functional power. Add in McKay’s ability as a pitcher and it’s hard to argue he’s the better (and safer) overall prospect. I still like Smith a bit more as a position player, so that’s what gives him the nod over McKay for this particular exercise.
Logan Taylor and Carl Chester are cut from the same cloth. We’re talking speed, defense, and minimal pop. It’s a prospect profile I’ve never been able to quit even as I see players like this get exposed in pro ball year after year. The floor makes it worth it at a certain point in the draft, but I need to stop overrating these types. Will I? Stay tuned!
C – Robbie Coman
1B – Gavin Sheets
2B – Ernie Clement
SS – Bruce Steel
3B – Joe Dunand
OF – Rhett Aplin, Reed Rohlman, Jonathan Pryor
I wrote about Wake Forest in an as yet unpublished piece that will likely never see the light of day. It was half-finished, so I didn’t get to all of the big names on this year’s Demon Deacons team…but I did get to Bruce Steel. Here’s what I wrote about him about three weeks ago…
Bruce Steel makes my head hurt as a low-average, high-OBP, shockingly high-power potential middle infielder. His limited experience as a redshirt-sophomore after tearing ligaments in his thumb in 2016 just makes it all the more confusing. I’m super intrigued by Steel and think he’s getting slept on pretty heavily within the industry. His power and makeup are both legit (first two things I hear about when asking about him), reports about his defense this year at shortstop have been far more good than bad, and he’s young for his class (turns 21 in December). Did I just talk myself into making him a rare in-season FAVORITE? You bet.
Also wrote this about Jonathan Pryor with an lead-in about Ben Breazeale, who was narrowly edged out for this third catcher spot by Robbie Coman…
Ben Breazeale’s hot start brings me great joy. I thought a big year was coming last season, but better late than never. He’s an outstanding senior-sign catcher with more than enough glove to stick behind the plate and enough offensive punch to profile as a big league backup. Jonathan Pryor could do similar things as an outfielder who can hang in center and provide a little something with the stick. It’s early yet, but his 15/20 BB/K ratio is cool to see from somebody who put up an impossibly ugly 5/40 ratio just two seasons ago.
Pryor’s BB/K is now at 23/32 for those of you scoring at home.
Then there’s Gavin Sheets. I have no idea what to do with Gavin Sheets. I think he hits enough to play regularly in the big leagues. As a first baseman, that means I think he’ll hit a whole heck of a lot. If he can do that, he’ll become only the third ever Gavin (Floyd and Cecchini beat him) to play in the majors. I’m leaning towards Sheets as the fifth best draft-eligible bat in the conference and think he’ll represent great value to teams if he winds up sliding on draft day as expected. I know teams pay a premium for up-the-middle talent, but sometimes the allure of a big bat is just too strong to ignore.
Others receiving consideration…
C – Ben Breazeale, Chris Williams, Ryan Lidge
1B – Sam Fragale, Quincy Nieporte, Justin Bellinger, Kel Johnson
2B – Jack Owens, Jake Palomaki, Johnny Ruiz, Kyle Fiala
SS – Justin Novak, Liam Sabino
3B – Trevor Craport, Ryan Tufts, Jack Labosky, Evan Mendoza, Kyle Datres, Dylan Busby, Zack Gahagan
OF – Jacob Wright, Chase Pinder, Coleman Poje, Ryan Peurifoy, Hunter Tackett, Adam Pate, Josh McLain, Brock Deatherage, Mac Caples, Rahiem Cooper
I love what Clemson does when building their starting staff. Charlie Barnes represents this Clemson ideal as well as anybody. His velocity is hardly overwhelming at 85-90 MPH, but he’s deceptive, crafty as hell, and can put any one of his three average or better offspeed pitches anywhere he wants in any count. It’s a profile that I personally love, though I can’t help but wonder how it translates to the upper-levels of pro ball. Somebody remind me in the offseason to do a a quick study about highly successful mid-to upper-80s college arms fare in the pros. In the meantime I’m left to ponder whether or not I’m falling too much in love with Barnes as a college pitcher and forgetting the ultimate aim here is projecting skill sets to pro ball?
I hope that’s not the case, but I’d be lying if I said I knew it wasn’t with any real certainty. My half-assed attempt at “research” while we wait for a less busy time of year (LOL) to come: per Fangraphs, only 12 of the 73 (16%) qualified starting pitchers last season averaged fastballs under 90 MPH. The only sub-90 MPH lefty out of that twelve, surprisingly enough, was Dallas Keuchel. Is Barnes a candidate to be the next Kuechel? I’m not saying that because, as we all know and Keuchel’s path demonstrates, player development is a funny game. Still, there’s at least some precedent, outlier or not, that suggests making it with a fastball that barely clips ninety is possible if you’ve got enough else going for you. If the Keuchel non-comparison comparison doesn’t work for you, then maybe you can be talked into Barnes following a path reminiscent of late-career Jeff Francis, Mark Buehrle, Ted Lilly, Doug Davis, and, the patron saints of lefties doing big things with (relatively) small fastballs, Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer.
Again, we’re not actually comparing Barnes to any of those specific guys — a more sensible comparison both in terms of draft stock and pro upside might be Tommy Milone (or, if you’re into peer to peer comps, Josh Reagan of South Carolina, Jared Poche’ of LSU, and Gunner Leger of Louisiana…really, there’s a ton of college lefties like this in this year’s class) — but merely highlighting of a few of the success stories over the years. Barnes is Barnes, a guy good enough in other areas (plus 76-77 CU, average 71-75 CB, 77-82 cut-slider) to excel even without major heat. Tricky long-term player to project or not, I’m currently buying Barnes as a real draft talent. If he falls to the same range as Milone, a tenth rounder in 2008, then I’m really buying.
Clemson has other pitchers to write about, too. Exhaustive research was not done, but I believe Pat Krall is the last remaining Temple baseball prospect still bouncing around college ball. That could be wrong, so don’t go out trying to win any bar bets with that fact. What is right (I think), is that Krall is the best Temple guy remaining by a healthy margin. He’s like a slightly less exciting version of Barnes: similar velocity (mid-80s), similarly nasty changeup (mid-70s), and enough of a breaking ball to tie it all together. The stuff may not blow you away, but he’s got the makeup, size (6-6, 200), and track record of success to get on the draft boards of smart teams out there. Plus, his changeup is really good, and who doesn’t love a great changeup? There are worse mid- to late-round matchup lefties to gamble on, so I heartily endorse Krall as a draft-worthy player…and it’s not just my own Philadelphia/Temple bias kicking in.
It’s really hard not to like Alex Eubanks as well. He’s been consistently good to great on the bump, and his stuff more than holds up. What he lacks in big velocity — he is a Tiger, after all — he makes up for in movement (86-93 with serious sink), command, and quality offspeed offerings (81-84 changeup, 83-88 cutter, 80-84 slider, 77-78 curve). That’ll play.
Tyler Jackson has good stuff (88-92 FB, good 80-82 CU, low-80s SL) and flat knows how to miss bats. He did it at USC Upstate and he’s doing it at Clemson. There’s a place in pro ball for a guy like him. I know nothing (yet) of Patrick Andrews‘s stuff, but he’s another guy who just plain gets results. Ryan Miller, like Jackson an incoming transfer (in Miller’s case from FAU), has come back from TJ surgery armed with a big fastball up to 96 MPH. I’m intrigued. Jake Higginbotham, draft-eligible as a sophomore but still on the way back from a 2016 arm injury, has flashed really impressive stuff from the left side at his best. I’d be trying to pin down his potential willingness to sign all spring if he was in my scouting backyard. Jeremy Beasley and Paul Campbell are currently (as of 3/27) eighth and tenth in innings for this year’s Clemson’s team respectively. Beasley stands 6-4, 215 pounds and lives in the low-90s with a plus split-change. Campbell lives 90-94 (hits 96) and throws a decent curve. Both are draft-worthy talents who are barely seeing the field at this point. The short version of everything I’ve written so far: Clemson has some serious depth on the mound. Let’s take a look at the other side of the ball and see how the Tiger hitters stack up.
Personal favorite — but not quite FAVORITE — Chase Pinder seems to have the fourth outfielder profile going for him with a chance to play regularly if he can ever find a way to more consistently tap into his above-average raw power. It’s very easy to like his defense in center, arm, and speed, all average or better tools, otherwise. It also doesn’t hurt that Pinder has what might be one of the five to ten best pure hit tools in all of college baseball right now. That’s exciting. Relatively high-floor player with sneaky starter ceiling.
Reed Rohlman doesn’t have quite the same athletic profile as Pinder, but he’s certainly no slouch at the plate. With similar offensive strengths (loads of hard contact) and questions (over the fence power), he’s a solid mid-round prospect. Pinder being a surer early-round prospect goes to show the importance of positional value, athleticism, and speed. Presbyterian transfer Weston Jackson has some work to do before quieting critics — like me — wondering how his offensive game would adjust from moving from the Big South to the ACC. I was really excited to see what Grayson Byrd and KJ Bryant would do this spring, but both are off to relatively slow starts. At their best, both can run, defend, and throw at premium defensive spots. I also thought Patrick Cromwell would hit the ground running — or, more accurately, just plain hit — but he’s been slow to get going as well. All four names are worth watching as the spring continues to unfold.
Chris Williams got his shot to follow Chris Okey and he’s taken full advantage. He’s athletic enough to have spent time at both first and third while waiting Okey out. Now that he’s getting steady time behind the dish, he’s proven to be a solid all-around defender with an average arm. His calling card has been and will continue to be his raw power and physicality at the plate. When he struggled last year, he still hit for power. Now that he’s rolling, watch out. I’m more or less in on Williams and think he’s got a shot to close the gap between himself and Pinder as Clemson’s top 2017 position player prospect. It’s not a great year for college catching as I see it, so the opportunity to rise way up the board is in play. I’m still not all the way there with him — the approach still leaves plenty to be desired — but his strengths (power bat with a strong likelihood to remain a catcher) tend to fit the wishlist of certain drafting teams more than others.
You can’t write about Clemson without mentioning the big guy, so here goes: Seth Beer is a star and deserves all the hype he’s gotten since first stepping on campus. He’s great. His long-term defensive forecast scares me, but any doubts about his bat qualify as the definition of nitpicks. In what might be a slightly spicy take, I think Logan Davidson is arguably on the same tier. Defense matters, after all. In any event, it’s hard to adequately describe how much I enjoy watching each player do what they do best. Great college players and outstanding pro prospects, both.
rSR RHP Tyler Jackson (2017)
rSR RHP Patrick Andrews (2017)
JR LHP Charlie Barnes (2017)
SR LHP Pat Krall (2017)
JR LHP Alex Schnell (2017)
JR RHP Ryan Miller (2017)
SO LHP Jake Higginbotham (2017)
rSO RHP Alex Eubanks (2017)
JR RHP Jeremy Beasley (2017)
JR RHP Paul Campbell (2017)
rSR OF Weston Jackson (2017)
JR OF Chase Pinder (2017)
JR C/1B Chris Williams (2017)
JR 3B/2B Adam Renwick (2017)
rJR OF/1B Reed Rohlman (2017)
rSR 1B/OF Andrew Cox (2017)
rSO SS/2B Grayson Byrd (2017)
rSO OF KJ Bryant (2017)
JR 3B Patrick Cromwell (2017)
JR OF Drew Wharton (2017)
JR C Robert Jolly (2017)
SO RHP Ryley Gilliam (2018)
SO RHP/1B Brooks Crawford (2018)
SO 1B/OF Seth Beer (2018)
SO SS/2B Grant Cox (2018)
SO 2B/C Jordan Greene (2018)
FR LHP Mitchell Miller (2019)
FR RHP Blake Holliday (2019)
FR LHP Jacob Hennessy (2019)
FR RHP Travis Marr (2019)
FR RHP Owen Griffith (2019)
FR LHP Ron Huggins (2019)
FR SS Logan Davidson (2019)
FR C Kyle Wilkie (2019)
SR RHP Clate Schmidt (2016)
rSR RHP Patrick Andrews (2016)
rJR RHP Wales Toney (2016)
rJR RHP Garrett Lovorn (2016)
JR LHP Alex Bostic (2016)
JR LHP Pat Krall (2016)
JR LHP Andrew Towns (2016)
rSO RHP Drew Moyer (2016)
rJR RHP/1B Jackson Campana (2016)
JR C Chris Okey (2016)
JR SS/2B Eli White (2016)
JR 3B/SS Weston Wilson (2016)
rSO OF/1B Reed Rohlman (2016)
rSO 3B Glenn Batson (2016)
rJR OF Maleeke Gibson (2016)
rJR 1B/OF Andrew Cox (2016)
FR LHP Jake Higginbotham (2017)
SO LHP Charlie Barnes (2017)
SO RHP Paul Campbell (2017)
SO 2B Adam Renwick (2017)
SO OF Chase Pinder (2017)
rFR OF KJ Bryant (2017)
SO OF Drew Wharton (2017)
SO C Robert Jolly (2017)
SO C/1B Chris Williams (2017)
FR RHP Ryley Gilliam (2018)
FR RHP Zach Goodman (2018)
FR RHP Graham Lawson (2018)
FR RHP/1B Brooks Crawford (2018)
FR RHP Tom Walker (2018)
FR RHP Andrew Papp (2018)
FR C Jordan Greene (2018)
FR SS/2B Grant Cox (2018)
JR C Chris Okey is in a great position heading into his draft year as an athletic, above-average all-around defensive catcher who can run a little bit. In today’s game, that’s exactly what big league teams want in a catcher, especially if you throw in the (overrated by the internet in terms of importance, but not altogether unimportant) ability to frame pitches. As I’ve written about countless times before (including the quoted Okey blurb from October you can read below), as the run environment has shifted away from the highest highs of the PED-era so too has the general preference for athleticism and defensive reliability behind the plate. This shift has come largely at the expense of big power and raw arm strength at the position. Mobility, flexibility, and fundamentally sound glovework is what moves the needle now. I’m thinking of recent early picks like Taylor Ward, Max Pentecost, Reese McGuire, and Justin O’Conner as the prototypes for this latest wave. Athletes like Russell Martin, Carlos Ruiz, Jonathan Lucroy, and Buster Posey (the man I remember watching play a decent shortstop once upon a time at Florida State) all represent the best case scenario for this player archetype; not coincidentally, those guys all rank in the top nine in fWAR since 2010 with a lot of their value tied up in excellent defensive numbers.
So what does any of this really have to do with Okey? While it’s great that he ticks off many of the boxes that teams like in a catching prospect, nobody is drafting a theoretical catcher archetype. Okey may be a fine example of the modern catcher, but that doesn’t mean he’s a slam dunk first round catcher. Here’s what I wrote about him a few months back…
Okey doesn’t have quite the same thunder in his bat as [Matt] Thaiss, but his strong hands, agile movements behind the plate, and average or better arm give him enough ammo to be in the mix for first college catching off the board. The days of the big, strong-armed, plus power, and questionable contact catcher seem to be dwindling as more and more teams appear willing to go back to placing athleticism atop their list of desired attributes for young catching prospects. Hard to say that’s wrong based on where today’s speed and defense style of game looks like it’s heading.
That all holds up today (obviously…it’s been two months!), but it should be noted that the nice things said about his game are a step below what many (myself included) were saying about him after his senior season of high school. His defense behind the plate never quite reached the threshold where you’d call any one component of his game consistently plus. He’s shown some plus pop times in the past, sure, but not as often as average to above-average times. I don’t think anybody would have imagined he’d get more athletic past his teenage years — time has a way of catching up to everybody — but there is a little bit more stiffness to him at present than you might think if going off those old scouting reports. He’s still the athletic, above-average all-around defensive catcher who can run a little bit that we mentioned at the top. And if we’re going to call him out some for slipping a bit — or, perhaps more accurately, not developing as hoped — with the glove, then it’s only right to praise him for the maturation of his power. What was once considered promising but far off has turned into displays of average or better present power with the shot at plus raw still out there. I’d err on the side of caution with his future power grade and put him closer to the average to above-average range where it currently plays, but that still means he could be a steady 15-20 home run bat at his peak. One interesting name that I heard as a comparison that makes a little bit of sense: Mike Lieberthal.
I still like Matt Thaiss as the draft’s top college catcher (with Zack Collins and the reports of his improved defense coming on very fast), but Okey and a host of others remain just a half-step behind as we enter the spring season.
JR SS/2B Eli White and JR 3B/SS Weston Wilson should make up what looks to be one of college ball’s most fascinating left sides of the infield. Neither White, an unsigned 37th round pick as a draft-eligible sophomore last season, nor Wilson, a former shortstop who has grown nicely into a prototypical third baseman, have the kind of plate discipline to profile as future regulars at this point, but the tools are loud. White is a good athlete who can really run with tons of bat speed and a high probability of sticking at shortstop. I compared him to Daniel Pinero last year and think he could have a similar impact in 2016. Wilson was a big favorite out of high school because of his intriguing defensive tools and emerging power. Each player still has both a lot to work on and a lot to work with.
rJR OF Maleeke Gibson remains intriguing as a speedy athlete lottery ticket. rSO OF/1B Reed Rohlman might hit his way onto rankings by the end of the season. rSO 3B Glenn Batson has flashed power upside, but is still a long way away in terms of approach.
SR RHP Clate Schmidt has overcome a great deal to get back to position himself to a return to the mound this spring. His athleticism, fastball (90-94, 96 peak), and impressive low-80s slider make him a prospect to watch, and his story of perseverance makes him a player to appreciate. If the return to health in 2016 has him feeling more like himself this spring (i.e., he’s more 2014 than 2015), then his feel-good story should end with a potential top ten round draft selection and honest shot in pro ball.
JR LHP Alex Bostic lives in the low-90s from the left side with an average or better upper-70s breaking ball. That’ll get you noticed. rJR RHP Wales Toney has always been a favorite of mine thanks to his quality stuff (88-92 FB, up to 95) and raw yet interesting offspeed repertoire. I think having a memorable name probably helps, too. I have much love for JR LHP Pat Krall, one of the last few survivors of the Temple program still kicking around college ball. He’s more than just a good story as his ability to miss bats (9.0 K/9 in 38 IP last year) with reasonably solid stuff (upper-80s FB, usable CU) from the left side make him a potential late-round prospect. rSO RHP Drew Moyer pitched really well in limited innings last season. He’s got the stuff to back it up (low-90s FB, advanced CU), so keep him in mind this spring. rJR RHP/1B Jackson Campana is a little bit like the pitching version of Maleeke Gibson to me. I see his size (6-6, 225) and wonder what he could do if the stars aligned, but so far fortune hasn’t been on his side. Maybe this is the year he can get regular time — pitching or hitting, I’m not picky — and show off what he can really do. Getting rSR RHP Patrick Andrews back is both good for the 2016 Clemson team and for fans of large-bodied (6-4, 240) righthanded pitchers who can crank it up to the mid-90s (88-92 FB, 94-95 peak). Add in an average or better slider and you’ve got a potential relief prospect if he can stay healthy.
Two guys to watch out for in future drafts that aren’t yet listed on the Clemson roster: SO SS Grayson Byrd and FR OF Seth Beer.