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2017 MLB Draft Report – Florida State
I like Taylor Walls a lot. I think there’s a good chance he can keep playing shortstop in the pros. If that’s the case, then he has a chance to go much higher than wherever I’m likely to end up ranking him. That potential relatively low ranking stems from the fact that I’m far less than certain than many seem to be about his chances of developing into an everyday shortstop. In all honesty, I don’t really know what to make of his defense just yet. My eyes say “sure why not,” my ears (i.e., contacts I know and trust) say “nope,” and BIG DRAFT (BA, PG, D1) collectively seem to think of him as a lock to stick at short. That’s confusing. It adds up to “inconclusive, needs more evidence” for me, so I guess that’s my official position for now. Feel free to draw your own conclusions as you see fit. Frankie Piliere, who has been pumping out great stuff for some time now but has taken it to another level so far in 2017, compared Walls to Brock Holt earlier this year. I like that a lot. I’ve gotten two comps for him — Walls, not Piliere — that I like for the throwback vibes if nothing else: the young versions of Mark McLemore and Luis Alicea. Between those three comps — long-term big league role players with flashes of starting-caliber output, all — and the generally positive scouting notes on Walls (great glove at second, good glove at short; enough arm strength for the left side of the infield; above-average speed; typical Florida State approach as a hitter), it’s fair to think of him as a relatively high-floor prospect with starting middle infielder upside. The higher the odds you place on him remaining at shortstop, the higher he should be on your board.
This is a completely anecdotal statement based largely on the recent memory of Ben DeLuzio wearing the gold and garnet, but it feels like Florida State, a school famous for piling up free passes on the offensive side of the ball, has a big-time hitter every season who completely bucks the extreme patience trend. Enter Dylan Busby, the proud owner of a 49/167 (and counting!) career BB/K ratio. Athletically gifted enough to play anywhere on the diamond — 50/50 split on first or third (my preference as to not waste his above-average arm) as his long-term spot based on info I received — and capable of some of most majestic home runs (easy plus raw power) in all the land, Busby has a lot going for him. He’s not my kind of prospect, but the power/speed athletic profile will surely entice teams willing to overlook his present free-swinging ways.
Rhett Aplin has been really strong in his Florida State debut. There’s power, arm strength, and the usual Seminole emphasis on plate discipline there. I know some that are excited at the prospect of him getting on the mound eventually, but I think his offensive game is plenty to be happy about for now. Quincy Nieporte didn’t have the breakout 2016 some (me) were expecting, but he’s been damn good to start his final season in Tallahassee. The world will always need senior-signs with power, so keep Nieporte on your draft radar. “Strong and slow” was how one contact described him. I like that.
There are probably enough decent middle infielders in this class to keep Matt Henderson from getting a chance in pro ball. That’s a shame if only for the fact Henderson might be the weirdest player in college baseball. If I told you that there was a quality glove at second (playable at short) with above-average to plus speed putting up on-base percentages of .420 (in 2016) and .397 (so far in 2017) in one of college ball’s best lineups, then you’d be sold on that as a sure-fire draft target, right? But what if that guy also hit just .230 (in 2016) and is hitting .204 (so far in 2017) with dangerously little power? Bit of a tougher sell, I’m guessing. I’d begrudgingly remove Henderson from my hypothetical draft board even before taking into account the likelihood that his one offensive strength (taking four balls and walking to first) would get weakened in a hurry once pro pitchers got wise to his total lack of sock. It still doesn’t hurt to point out how weird and wonderful Henderson is in the college setting. He could play for my college team anytime.
I think all nine of the draft-eligible Florida State arms listed below could be drafted this June. That’s a ton of picks off of one staff. Let’s rank them based on that very likelihood…
9 – Ed Voyles – Good 2016, slow start in 2017; changeup (flashes plus) and size (6-7, 200) both working in his favor
8 – Alec Byrd – long track record of success should matter more than his ugly 2017 to date; decent velocity (86-91) from the left side with some projection left (6-4, 180)
7 – Steven Wells – argument could be made he could be ranked lower due to relative inexperience on the mound, but stuff (89-93 FB, mid-70s CB) and athleticism make him a project worth taking on
6 – Will Zirzow – misses bats with a well-rounded repertoire (good 73-76 CU, 73-74 CB) without premium velocity (86-88 FB)
5 – Cobi Johnson – a true wild card as he comes back from last April’s Tommy John surgery; at his best, arguably the best stuff of any draft-eligible pitcher here (87-92 FB, 94 peak; plus 73-74 CB; average CU; 81-83 cut-SL)
4 – Jim Voyles – more success than his brother with a more relief friendly featured offspeed pitch (plus 78-80 SL)
3 – Drew Carlton – floor of an effective sinker/slider reliever with the ceiling of a useful back of the rotation starter thanks to a quality if underutilized 79-82 MPH changeup
2 – Andrew Karp – the template for Johnson as he returns from injury; like Johnson, a big HS recruit known for legit stuff (87-92 FB, 94 peak; 84-86 SL; 77-81 CB; good 79-82 CU); finally putting it all together
1 – Tyler Holton – just about everything written about Charlie Barnes of Clemson earlier in the week — 85-90 FB (92 peak), 75-79 breaking ball with promise, nasty 76-78 changeup, command for days — applies to Holton with a strong case to be made that the Seminoles draft-eligible sophomore is the better long-term prospect; big fan of this guy and his expert pitchability
For the record, that countdown is less about my own personal feelings about each than guesses about draftability. My prep love of Johnson might push him all the way to the top of a straight ranking by personal preference. Wouldn’t argue with anybody who had Holton, Karp, or Carlton in the top spot, however. All are really good pro prospects.
*****
JR RHP Cobi Johnson (2017)
JR RHP Drew Carlton (2017)
rSO RHP Andrew Karp (2017)
SR LHP Alec Byrd (2017)
rJR RHP Ed Voyles (2017)
SR RHP Jim Voyles (2017)
rJR RHP Will Zirzow (2017)
SO LHP/OF Tyler Holton (2017)
JR RHP/OF Steven Wells (2017)
JR OF/LHP Rhett Aplin (2017)
SR 1B Quincy Nieporte (2017)
JR 2B/SS Taylor Walls (2017)
SR C Bryan Bussey (2017)
JR 3B/1B Dylan Busby (2017)
SR 2B/SS Matt Henderson (2017)
SR OF/3B Hank Truluck (2017)
SO RHP Cole Sands (2018)
SO RHP Chase Haney (2018)
rFR RHP Alex Carpenter (2018)
SO RHP Ronnie Ramirez (2018)
rFR RHP Dillon Brown (2018)
SO C Cal Raleigh (2018)
SO OF/C Jackson Lueck (2018)
SO OF Donovan Petrey (2018)
FR LHP Clayton Kwiatkowski (2019)
FR RHP Brandon Reitz (2019)
FR RHP Justin Sorokowski (2019)
FR LHP/OF Drew Parrish (2019)
FR OF/RHP JC Flowers (2019)
FR 3B Drew Mendoza (2019)
FR 2B/OF Nick Derr (2019)
FR SS Tyler Daughtry (2019)
FR OF Ryan Mejia (2019)
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Florida State
rSR RHP Mike Compton (2016)
rJR LHP Alex Diese (2016)
rSO RHP Taylor Blatch (2016)
JR LHP Alec Byrd (2016)
rSO RHP Andy Ward (2016)
rSO RHP Ed Voyles (2016)
JR RHP Jim Voyles (2016)
rSO RHP Will Zirzow (2016)
rSR LHP Matt Kinney (2016)
rSR RHP Logan Warmouth (2016)
JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio (2016)
JR 1B/C Quincy Nieporte (2016)
SR 2B/SS John Sansone (2016)
JR C/OF Gage West (2016)
JR 1B/OF Hank Truluck (2016)
JR SS/2B Matt Henderson (2016)
JR C Bryan Bussey (2016)
FR LHP/OF Tyler Holton (2017)
SO RHP Cobi Johnson (2017)
rFR RHP Andrew Karp (2017)
SO RHP Drew Carlton (2017)
SO OF/RHP Steven Wells (2017)
SO C/1B Darren Miller (2017)
SO SS/3B Dylan Busby (2017)
SO SS/2B Taylor Walls (2017)
FR RHP Cole Sands (2018)
FR LHP Jared Middleton (2018)
FR RHP Chase Haney (2018)
FR RHP Ronnie Ramirez (2018)
FR RHP Dillon Brown (2018)
FR C Caleb Raleigh (2018)
FR C/OF Jackson Lueck (2018)
FR OF Donovan Petrey (2018)
I haven’t seen (or heard from those who have seen) enough of JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio to offer a strong take on his professional future. Much of what I can share likely qualifies under “stuff I already know,” assuming you’ve come to this site willingly and under your own accord. DeLuzio is a fantastic athlete with easy plus foot speed, real arm strength, a quick bat, and average or better raw power. I’ve heard from some in the know who believe he’ll be tried back in the infield depending on how open-minded his drafting team is, but the backup plan of having him glide under balls from pole to pole in center isn’t bad, either.
As is the case with many players who have a bushel of tools rattled off at the top of their dossier, the big question surrounding DeLuzio is how much he’ll hit and whether or not his approach will ever improve enough to allow him to tap into his raw power and considerable athletic ability. In this way, he’s similar to many of this year’s draft’s top college prospects while also being a fascinating outlier in history of the Seminoles hitters. He’s not DJ Stewart. He’s not Stephen or Mike McGee. He’s not James Ramsey or Jayce Boyd or Devon Travis or Tyler Holt. That’s both a good and bad thing. I’m not a Florida State historian so I’m sure I’ll hear from fans of the team via email for this, but a case could be made that he’s the highest upside athlete to play in Tallahassee since Buster Posey. Maybe you could argue Taiwan Easterling, D’Vontrey Richardson, or Justin Gonzalez, but the point is that DeLuzio would be at or near the top of the list over the past decade or so. For all his gifts, however, DeLuzio still swings and misses a lot. That’s not a trait shared by the aforementioned Stewart, McGee’s, Ramsey, Boyd, Travis, or Holt. Of that group, the guy he is most similar to both athletically and from a plate discipline standpoint is Travis. In no way is it a direct comparison, but a bigger Devon Travis isn’t the worst frame of reference to what DeLuzio could be. DeLuzio needs to find out whatever it is that helped Travis make the jump from athletic yet raw college hacker to athletic yet refined professional hitter. If I knew what it took or could predict a breakout, I’d…well, I’d probably still be doing this because babies and mortgages are expensive and entry level baseball jobs are for men and women much younger than myself.
JR 1B/C Quincy Nieporte is more of a classic FSU hitter (.297/.391/.445 with 22 BB/19 K) with a reasonable shot to get drafted if he can do similar things in 2016. SR 2B/SS John Sansome has some sneaky pop and defensive versatility. JR C/OF Gage West needs at bats, but everybody I’ve spoken to about him see a breakout season ahead.
Was rSR RHP Mike Compton’s standout 2015 season an example of an older pitcher taking advantage of overmatched teenage competition or a return to 100% health after missing the 2013 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery? It’ll be hard to answer that question with much certainty in 2016 now that the fifth-year senior has put another year between himself and the opposition, but a repeat of his excellent season (jumped from 5.36 K/9 in 2014 to 8.87 K/9 in 2015) will definitely put him on the draft radar. I like Compton as a gritty college performer with enough stuff (highlighted by mid-80s sinkers and above-average low-70s curves), a deceptive motion, impeccable fastball command, and a veteran big league pitcher’s knowledge of the craft. He’d be a mid- to late-round target if I had a say in a draft room. Both rSO RHP Ed Voyles and JR RHP Jim Voyles have the size (6-7, 200) and stuff (CU for Ed, SL for Jim) to get hitters out if they can get and stay on a mound. Jim did good work last year, so he’s currently ahead but the two figure to be as close as you’d expect on rankings throughout the spring. I’ve heard good things about rSO RHP Andy Ward (up to 93, nice slider) as a potential relief prospect if he can stay healthy.
rJR LHP Alex Diese hasn’t gotten a ton of exposure (just 16.1 IP last year), but he’s got enough fastball and flashes two really promising offspeed pitches (plus CU and average or better CB). If it all comes together for him, he could shoot up boards. JR LHP Alec Byrd isn’t too far off stuff-wise with some projection left in his 6-4, 180 pound frame. That’s good for almost half a foot on rSO RHP Taylor Blatch, the 5-11, 160 pound athlete capable of running it up to the low- to mid-90s on his best day. If he can curtail some of his wildness, he could join the rest of this group as a potential draft possibility.
The Baseball Draft Report 