Home » Posts tagged 'Pac-12'
Tag Archives: Pac-12
Pac-12 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team – PITCHERS
First Team
UCLA JR RHP James Kaprielian
USC JR LHP Kyle Twomey
Arizona State JR LHP Brett Lilek
Oregon rSO LHP Cole Irvin
UCLA JR RHP Cody Poteet
Second Team
Stanford JR RHP Marc Brakeman
Arizona State JR LHP Ryan Kellogg
Arizona State JR RHP Ryan Burr
Oregon JR LHP Garrett Cleavinger
Oregon State JR RHP Andrew Moore
I’m oddly fascinated at the idea of a pitcher with a “four-pitch mix” because I feel like that phrase almost exclusively is thrown around at the amateur level. Maybe you’ll hear it at times for minor leaguers, but depth of repertoire is not something discussed much in the big leagues. Obviously this is because we’ve got a self-selecting sample and pitchers without the requisite three or four pitches needed to run through lineups multiple times have already been converted to relief, but I still think there’s perhaps something to the way evaluators overrate prospects with a ton of decent pitches (who must be starters then!) and underrate young arms with two knockout pitches (relief all the way!) without factoring in that pitchers can in fact develop additional effective pitches along the way. I’m not saying a young guy who can’t throw a curve will one day wake up finding one in his wrist, but there have been enough recent examples of pitchers tinkering around the edges with grips that help previously unusable pitches (changeups, cutters, occasionally sliders) suddenly work to help get advanced hitters out. Even my old notes on Michael Wacha, a player that I think compares in certain respect to the guy we’re eventually going to talk about, make mention of this phenomena…
Texas A&M JR RHP Michael Wacha: big velocity jump during college tenure – once peaked only as high as 92, but now regularly sits 90-95 FB, hitting 96-97; like many young arms, can get himself in trouble when he overthrows fastball and it begins to straighten out; somewhat similar to Kyle Zimmer in the way he relied on excellent fastball command before seeing a velocity spike; holds velocity well, very rarely dipping below 90; have heard he’ll throw his legitimate plus to plus-plus CU with two distinct grips: one at 82-85 with the circle change grip, the other more of an upper-70s straight change; either way, the CU should be a weapon from day one on; occasional 81-85 SL with cutter action; also will go with a very rare upper-70s CB that could be the breaking pitch he’ll be asked to run with as a pro; neither breaking ball is pro-ready, but both have flashed enough that it is easy to imagine a pro staff believing it can coach him up; natural comparison is Ryan Madson, especially if Wacha never develops a consistent third pitch and is used out of the bullpen; as a starter, I think there are some similarities in terms of stuff when you compare him to Braves prospect Julio Teheran; 6-6, 200 pounds
Wacha wasn’t quite a two-pitch guy in college, but he was close. The idea that a player capable of hitting the mid-90s with an easy plus change, clean mechanics, and a prototypical starter’s frame would be relegated to the bullpen because of an iffy present third pitch was silly at the time and downright preposterous in hindsight. Thankfully, it also represents a learning experience and the chance to reevaluate what elements are most crucial when projecting pitchers into the future. Going back to the idea that amateurs need three or four pitches to start spurred me to look up what big league arms actually throw four quality pitches. The only three starting pitchers I found with positive pitch values (per Fangraphs) for each of the four pitches in the classic “four-pitch mix” (FB/CU/CB/SL) last season were Felix Hernandez, Anibal Sanchez, and Tanner Roark. If you expand it to include relievers, then Danny Farquhar, Tom Wilhelmsen, and Zach Duke join the fun. If you let David Price’s cutter in stand in for a slider, then you can add him to the starter party. Many players were close (Clayton Kershaw, Julio Teheran, Matt Garza, and Scott Kazmir to name a few) and the whole thing is about as unscientific as you can get, but I found it interesting and a fine use of five spare minutes.
This whole discussion goes back to a “four-pitch mix,” which admittedly is a bit of a strawman of a premise in the first place. I don’t know of anybody who says you NEED four pitches to make it as a starting pitcher in the big leagues. Three pitches is the most common baseline and a quick spin around Fangraphs Pitch Type leaderboard validates this idea. The only two pitchers you could even make a flimsy argument for being two-pitch starters (out of the 88 player sample of 2014 qualified pitchers) are Bartolo Colon (11.8% SL, 5.6% CU) and Lance Lynn (10.2% SL, 8.4% CB, 2.4% CU). Those two might be closest, but neither is what I’d expect anybody to call a two-pitch pitcher. Lynn, who is literally (!) a four-pitch pitcher, being included in this conversation at all is somehow both absurd (he throws four pitches!) and justified (showing a pitch and throwing a pitch aren’t the same, right?), but the whole thing is still a stretch. The three pitch minimum lives on.
That was a lot of words when I could have simply said that even though years of being in and around the game have conditioned me to want to see three usable big league pitches on any amateur (college, especially) before feeling confident enough to project him as a big league starter pitcher, I’ve come around to the idea that young guys with two above-average or better pitches can be just as likely to develop a usable third pitch as a more advanced at present peer. Even shorter still: give me the pitcher with two nasty pitches over the one with four average pitches, assuming all else (delivery, athleticism, command, control, etc.) is equal.
This all brings me to the guy I think Wacha compares to on some level, UCLA JR RHP James Kaprielian. Draft people like me who sometimes try to get too cute for own good have fought it in the past, but there’s no denying that Kaprielian warrants a first round grade this June. Well-built righthanders with four pitches (ding!) and consistently excellent results in a tough conference profile as big league starting pitchers more often than not. I’m going to just go with an excerpt of some of my notes on Kaprielian because they are among the longest running that I have on any player in this college class…
JR RHP James Kaprielian (2015): 87-92 FB, 94-95 peak; potential plus 79-84 CB, commands it well; potential plus 80-85 CU with serious sink; above-average 79-85 SL; good athlete; excellent overall command; 2014 Summer: 88-92 FB, 93 peak; above-average to plus or better 75-79 CB with plus command, still gets it up to 85 depending on situation; average or better upside with 79-82 SL; FAVORITE; average or better upside with mid-80s CU with splitter action; UPDATE: 83-85 SL, flashes above-average; average 78-80 CB with above-average to plus upside; good athlete; commands both breaking balls well; 2015: 89-94 FB; above-average 78-81 CB flashes plus; above-average 83-85 SL; above-average mid-80s CU, flashes better; 6-4, 200 pounds (2013: 12.39 K/9 | 5.09 BB/9 | 2.20 FIP | 40.2 IP) (2014: 9.17 K/9 – 2.97 BB/9 – 106 IP – 2.29 ERA)
The UPDATE and 2015 sections give the most pertinent information (88-94 FB, 95 peak; above-average 78-81 CB, flashes plus; average 83-85 SL, flashes above-average; above-average mid-80s CU with drop, flashes plus; good athleticism; commands both breaking balls ably; plus overall command), but I like including the whole thing (or as much as can be published) to highlight the growth he’s made. Kaprielian is damn good and smart team picking in the latter half of the first round will get a quick-moving mid-rotation arm who still might have a bit of upside left in him beyond that.
On the other end of the spectrum (kind of) is USC JR LHP Kyle Twomey. Twomey has long been a favorite thanks to a fastball/changeup combination (just two pitches, gasp!) good enough to get big league swings and misses within the year. His fastball doesn’t have premium velocity (87-92, 94 peak), but the heaps of movement he gets on it make it a consistent above-average to plus offering. His change does a lot of the same things from the same arm speed, making the 78-82 MPH pitch above-average with plus upside. Those two pitches and room to grow on a 6-3, 170 pound frame make him a very appealing prospect. There are some issues that will need ironing out at the pro level – deciding on whether to further refine his cutter/slider hybrid or tightening up his soft curve, plus improving his overall control and offspeed command – but the pieces are there for him to make it as a big league starting pitcher.
I was all about UCLA rSO LHP Hunter Virant heading into the season as a prospect with no college track record storming up boards and claiming his spot in the first round. I think on the original iteration of this list he was in the top five. Whoops. His situation in school isn’t exactly the same as Matt Purke’s, but there are enough depressing similarities to the two that I think citing their stories might give the push to recommend pro ball to any young arm. That’s not to say that anything specifically done to Virant while at UCLA has damaged his pro prospects; pitchers get hurt no matter the time and place. Heck, if anything you could argue that Virant is better off with (presumably) three years of coursework towards a degree at a fine university than he would have been taking bonus money out of high school and flaming out of pro ball by now. Other HS arms I loved once upon a time that have fallen into hard times collegiately include the Stanford duo of JR RHP Freddy Avis and JR RHP Daniel Starwalt. I still have hope for all these players, but every day that passes without them pitching effectively on the mound (or pitching at all, really) makes it a little tougher to justify the faith.
In happier news, Oregon rSO LHP Cole Irvin’s return from injury (Tommy John) has gone fairly well to date. I’d say he’s done enough to show he should be in the top five round mix this June, especially when his pre-injury talent level, athleticism, control, and plus-plus pickoff move are all taken into account.
Somebody at Perfect Game (I believe) compared Arizona State JR LHP Brett Lilek to a lefty Phil Bickford. I can buy it to some degree as their stuff (and frame and command) isn’t too far off, but Lilek has never shown the same ability to miss bats as Bickford, admittedly at a different level, right now. He’s still a lefthander with size (6-4, 200), velocity (90-94, 95 peak), and three offspeed pitches each with a varying degree of promise (I’d rank them slider, curve, change). Yes, I fully understand the irony of pumping up Lilek, a potential four-pitch pitcher (though more likely three-pitch) with a prospect status built more on the strength of a high likelihood of at least some success (league average starter?) rather than sheer upside, right after my weird little tangent about no longer wanting to overrate prospects just like him. Maybe every prospect should be evaluated on their own merits or something? Lilek’s teammate JR LHP Ryan Kellogg is a similar prospect (size, command, smarts) but has neither the same fastball (87-92) nor the same quality of offspeed stuff. That’s not meant to diminish his ability as he still has a chance (just slightly less so than Lilek for me) to make it as a back-end big league starter.
I swear I’m not making this up, but my notes on UCLA JR RHP Cody Poteet include this exact phrase: “legit four-pitch mix.” I mean, it is true after all. What Poteet lacks in physicality he more than makes up for with the depth of his stuff. I like more than love him as a prospect, but his slider has the makings of a really good pro pitch. USC JR RHP/C Kyle Davis and Oregon State JR RHP Andrew Moore (easy plus command and control guy) give the class two additional short righthanders with well-rounded stuff and strong track records.
Stanford JR RHP Marc Brakeman is more of a two-pitch prospect (like Twomey) that I’ve referenced above. Armed with a nice albeit inconsistent heater (88-94, 95 peak – though I’ve seen him sit more on the low end of that range at times) and an outstanding low-80s changeup, Brakeman could move up boards quickly once he gets healthy again. I’ve been the low man on him in the past, but that’s more due to an intuition thing than anything I can reasonably express.
Arizona State JR RHP Ryan Burr and Oregon JR LHP Garrett Cleavinger stand together as the two best 2015 relief prospects likely to come out of the conference. Burr has gotten some recent love as a possible starter at the next level, but I don’t really see it. Been there, done that. He has the stuff (90-96 FB, above-average low-80s SL, ability to mix in raw yet intriguing mid-80s CU and upper-70s CB) to pull it off, but the delivery, control (though improved), and command all scream reliever to me. I haven’t heard anybody mention Cleavinger as a potential pro starter. Keeping him in the pen also makes sense to me because, though he has the pitches (90-96 FB, above-average breaking ball, average CU) to face a lineup multiple times through, he has the arm action and stamina (stuff plays way up in short bursts) to thrive in the relief role in the pros. There has been some market correction on how teams value college relievers in recent drafts, but I still expect to see Burr go higher than he’ll wind up on my personal board this June. He’s really good, so it isn’t as though that will be a horrible mistake…but assuming Cleavinger (and other “second tier” college relievers) wind up going multiple rounds lower, that’s the value play I’d lean towards.
I’ve said many times I don’t believe in sleepers. I find the whole concept a tad demeaning to all involved. To call somebody a sleeper insults the player, the audience, and the profession (or, if you’d prefer, industry). If you’re any good, somebody somewhere knows who you are, so you’re not a sleeper by my own personal, admittedly crazy narrow, definition. Still, insults might be too strong a word because I don’t take any of this stuff that seriously – I do this entirely for fun, I acknowledge that my influence is nonexistent, I don’t buy into scouting as some sacred insider only thing that only real baseball men can participate in, I actively root for all prospects (even the ones I “miss” on) to do well and make millions and live out all their dreams, etc. – but few things bug me more when reading draft or prospect stuff than really famous players being called “sleepers.” I realize the interest in the MLB Draft isn’t on par with the NFL or NBA counterparts, but when actual paid professional draft writers start with the assumption that their audience only knows players expected to go in the top five picks and then pat themselves on the back years later when their draft “sleeper” (picked, like, fourteenth overall) winds up a great player, a little part of me dies inside. Another example of this is the way that most publications write up at least thirty prospects per organization, but then the one that limits it to ten has the gall to name an additional prospect from each system a “sleeper” and crow when that player — nominally the eleventh ranked player in the system — has a good year. Come on.
I guess instead of sleepers I can just call them players I think I’ll wind up having ranked higher than where they’ll be drafted. Even then, if I like a guy more than most right now and wind up “right” about him as pro teams get wise to his ability/upside, then judging by that standard doesn’t seem particularly fair. Calling them guys I like more than the consensus isn’t very meaningful when most draft rankings only go about fifty deep (if that) up until the week leading up until the draft.
This tangent doesn’t really apply here since many of my potential sleepers (there’s that word again) haven’t quite lived up to expectations so far this year, but there are a few guys that will be drafted fairly late that I like quite bit. I like Arizona State SR RHP Darrin Gillies as a sinker/slider guy with size, Washington SR RHP Brandon Choate for similar reasons (90-94 FB, 96 peak; SL flashes plus; lots of ground balls), Oregon JR RHP Conor Harber (who might be too good to be a sleeper…I have no idea anymore) for his untapped upside, athleticism, and fresh arm, and, in the most decidedly non-sleeper of them all, UCLA SR RHP David Berg, who is just plain fun to watch carve up good hitters in high pressure situations with mid-80s fastballs and impeccable control. If I updated this list today rather than just reusing my existing preseason list with Virant dropped a dozen spots from his original lofty perch, all four guys would be higher than they are below. Harber would be much higher. I also try to tack on a few speculative picks at the end of these rankings when I can (the bottom quarter of many of these lists are mostly a combination of players with clearly defined potential big league roles — like a future lefty specialist or something — or players I don’t know much about with about much of a track record but with substantial upside), so don’t sleep on UCLA rSO RHP Tucker Forbes.
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching
- UCLA JR RHP James Kaprielian
- USC JR LHP Kyle Twomey
- Arizona State JR LHP Brett Lilek
- Oregon rSO LHP Cole Irvin
- UCLA JR RHP Cody Poteet
- Stanford JR RHP Marc Brakeman
- Arizona State JR LHP Ryan Kellogg
- Arizona State JR RHP Ryan Burr
- Oregon JR LHP Garrett Cleavinger
- Oregon State JR RHP Andrew Moore
- Arizona rJR RHP Matthew Troupe
- UCLA rSO LHP Hunter Virant
- USC JR RHP/C Kyle Davis
- Oregon JR RHP/OF Conor Harber
- Arizona State SR RHP Darin Gillies
- Stanford JR RHP Freddy Avis
- Stanford JR RHP Daniel Starwalt
- Arizona JR RHP Nathan Bannister
- Washington SR RHP Brandon Choate
- Washington State rSR RHP Scott Simon
- California JR RHP Ryan Mason
- UCLA rSO RHP Nick Kern
- Arizona State JR RHP/OF David Graybill
- California rSR RHP Dylan Nelson
- Arizona JR LHP Cody Moffett
- Washington JR RHP Troy Rallings
- UCLA SR RHP David Berg
- UCLA SR LHP Grant Watson
- UCLA rSO RHP Tucker Forbes
- Washington rSR RHP Josh Fredendall
- Stanford JR LHP Logan James
- USC JR LHP Marc Huberman
- Stanford SR RHP David Schmidt
- Washington JR RHP Alex Nesbitt
- Utah JR RHP Dalton Carroll
- Utah JR RHP Bret Helton
- Washington State SR RHP Sam Triece
- Arizona State JR RHP/2B Jordan Aboites
- Arizona SR LHP Tyler Crawford
- Arizona JR RHP Tyger Talley
- USC JR LHP Tyler Gilbert
- Washington State SR RHP Sean Hartnett
- USC JR RHP Brooks Kriske
- USC JR RHP Brent Wheatley
- Washington SR RHP Tyler Davis
- Stanford SR LHP Jonathan Hochstatter
- Washington JR RHP Ryan Schmitten
- Washington State JR LHP Matt Bower
2015 MLB Draft Prospects – Pac-12 Follow List
Arizona
rJR RHP Matthew Troupe (2015)
JR RHP Nathan Bannister (2015)
SR LHP Tyler Crawford (2015)
rJR LHP Xavier Borde (2015)
JR RHP Tyger Talley (2015)
JR LHP Cody Moffett (2015)
rJR RHP Cody Hamlin (2015)
JR SS/2B Kevin Newman (2015)
JR OF Zach Gibbons (2015)
JR 2B/OF Scott Kingery (2015)
SR C Riley Moore (2015)
SR OF Joseph Maggi (2015)
SR C Jordan Berger (2015)
JR OF Justin Behnke (2015)
JR OF Ryan Aguilar (2015)
JR 3B/OF Cody Ramer (2015)
SR OF Tyler Krause (2015)
JR 2B/SS Jackson Willeford (2015)
SO 3B/RHP Bobby Dalbec (2016)
SO RHP Morgan Earman (2016)
SO RHP Austin Schnabel (2016)
rFR RHP Robby Medel (2016)
SO OF Kenny Meimerstorf (2016)
FR 1B JJ Matijevic (2017)
FR C/1B Handsome Monica (2017)
FR RHP Matt Hartman (2017)
Arizona State
JR RHP Ryan Burr (2015)
JR LHP Brett Lilek (2015)
JR LHP Ryan Kellogg (2015)
SR RHP Darin Gillies (2015)
JR RHP Eric Melbostad (2015)
JR RHP/OF David Graybill (2015)
JR 2B/SS Jordan Aboites (2015)
JR OF John Sewald (2015)
rSR OF Trever Allen (2015)
SR OF Jake Peeveyhouse (2015)
JR OF/1B Chris Beall (2015)
rSO OF Cullen O’Dwyer (2015)
JR C RJ Ybarra (2015)
JR 3B/OF Dalton DiNatale (2015)
SO RHP Seth Martinez (2016)
SO C Brian Serven (2016)
SO RHP Eder Erives (2016)
SO SS/2B Colby Woodmansee (2016)
SO RHP Hever Bueno (2016)
FR OF Coltin Gerhart (2017)
FR LHP Tucker Baca (2017)
FR SS/3B Ryan Lillard (2017)
FR RHP Ryan Hingst (2017)
California
SR 2B/3B Chris Paul (2015)
JR OF/1B Nick Halamandaris (2015)
SR SS Brenden Farney (2015)
rJR OF Brian Celsi (2015)
JR OF Devin Pearson (2015)
JR 2B Max Dutto (2015)
JR C/3B Mitchell Kranson (2015)
JR RHP Ryan Mason (2015)
rSR RHP Dylan Nelson (2015)
rSR RHP Keaton Siomkin (2015)
rSO LHP Jake Schulz (2015)
rSO RHP Jordan Talbot (2015)
JR RHP Collin Monsour (2015)
SO RHP Daulton Jefferies (2016)
SO RHP Alex Schick (2016)
SO RHP Trevin Haseltine (2016)
SO RHP/3B Lucas Erceg (2016)
SO INF Robbie Tenerowicz (2016)
SO OF Aaron Knapp (2016)
FR C Brett Cumberland (2017)
FR RHP Jeff Bain (2017)
FR SS Preston Grand Pre (2017)
Oregon
rSO LHP Cole Irvin (2015)
JR LHP Garrett Cleavinger (2015)
SR RHP Jack Karraker (2015)
JR RHP/OF Conor Harber (2015)
JR C/RHP Josh Graham (2015)
rJR OF/3B Scott Heineman (2015)
SR C Shaun Chase (2015)
JR 3B/SS Matt Eureste (2015)
JR 3B/1B Mitchell Tolman (2015)
rSR OF Steven Packard (2015)
JR 1B/OF Phillipe Craig-St. Louis (2015)
JR 1B Brandon Cuddy (2015)
SO SS Mark Karaviotis (2016)
SO OF Nick Catalano (2016)
SO OF Austin Grebeck (2016)
SO RHP Steve Nogosek (2016)
SO OF/1B AJ Balta (2016)
SO RHP Trent Paddon (2016)
SO LHP Matt Krook (2016)
FR LHP David Peterson (2017)
FR C Tim Susnara (2017)
FR C/OF Slade Heggen (2017)
FR LHP Jacob Corn (2017)
FR SS Carson Breshears (2017)
FR SS/2B Daniel Patzlaff (2017)
FR RHP Kohl Hostert (2017)
FR OF Jakob Goldfarb (2017)
Oregon State
JR RHP Andrew Moore (2015)
JR RHP Travis Eckert (2015)
JR LHP Max Engelbrekt (2015)
SR OF/LHP Michael Howard (2015)
JR OF Jeff Hendrix (2015)
JR 1B Gabe Clark (2015)
SO C Logan Ice (2016)
SO SS Trevor Morrison (2016)
SO 3B Caleb Hamilton (2016)
SO 1B/OF Billy King (2016)
SO 2B/OF Tyler Mildenberg (2016)
SO RHP John Pomeroy (2016)
SO RHP Jake Thompson (2016)
SO LHP Trent Shelton (2016)
SO RHP Kevin Flemer (2016)
FR RHP Drew Rasmussen (2016)
FR OF Elliott Cary (2017)
FR C KJ Harrison (2017)
FR 3B/SS Joe Gillette (2017)
FR SS Michael Gretler (2017)
FR 3B/1B Jackson Soto (2017)
FR 2B/SS Christian Donahue (2017)
FR RHP Sam Tweedt (2017)
FR LHP Ryan Mets (2017)
USC
JR LHP Kyle Twomey (2015)
JR LHP Tyler Gilbert (2015)
JR RHP Brent Wheatley (2015)
JR LHP Marc Huberman (2015)
JR RHP Brooks Kriske (2015)
JR RHP/C Kyle Davis (2015)
JR OF Timmy Robinson (2015)
rSR 2B Angelo La Bruna (2015)
SR 2B Dante Flores (2015)
rSR OF Omar Cotto Lozada (2015)
SR C Garrett Stubbs (2015)
rJR OF Bobby Stahel (2015)
JR SS Blake Lacey (2015)
rSO SS Reggie Southall (2015)
SO LHP Bernardo Flores (2016)
SO C/1B Jeremy Martinez (2016)
SO OF Corey Dempster (2016)
SO 3B/RHP Jeff Paschke (2016)
SO SS Frankie Rios (2016)
SO 1B/OF Joe Corrigan (2016)
SO LHP/OF Andrew Wright (2016)
SO C AJ Fritts (2016)
FR RHP Mitch Hart (2017)
FR 1B Cole Young (2017)
FR RHP Brad Wegman (2017)
FR RHP Bryce Dyrda (2017)
FR RHP Mason Perryman (2017)
FR SS Adalberto Carrillo (2017)
FR SS Angelo Armenta (2017)
FR INF Stephen Dubb (2017)
Stanford
JR OF Zach Hoffpauir (2015)
JR C Austin Barr (2015)
JR SS/RHP Drew Jackson (2015)
JR SS/RHP Bobby Zarubin (2015)
JR OF/LHP Jonny Locher (2015)
JR RHP Marc Brakeman (2015)
JR LHP Logan James (2015)
SR LHP Spenser Linney (2015)
SR RHP David Schmidt (2015)
SR LHP Jonathan Hochstatter (2015)
JR RHP Freddy Avis (2015)
JR RHP Daniel Starwalt (2015)
SO SS Tommy Edman (2016)
SO OF Jack Klein (2016)
SO RHP Cal Quantrill (2016)
SO RHP/3B Brett Hanewich (2016)
SO RHP Chris Viall (2016)
SO RHP Tyler Thorne (2016)
SO LHP Chris Castellanos (2016)
FR C Bryce Carter (2017)
FR RHP Keith Weisenberg (2017)
FR LHP/OF Quinn Brodey (2017)
FR RHP Colton Hock (2017)
FR LHP Andrew Summerville (2017)
FR SS/2B Beau Branton (2017)
FR 3B Mikey Diekroeger (2017)
FR SS Jesse Kuet (2017)
FR LHP John Henry Styles (2017)
FR OF/1B Matt Winaker (2017)
UCLA
JR RHP James Kaprielian (2015)
rSO LHP Hunter Virant (2015)
JR RHP Cody Poteet (2015)
SR RHP David Berg (2015)
rSO RHP Nick Kern (2015)
SR LHP Grant Watson (2015)
rSO RHP Chase Radan (2015)
rSO RHP Tucker Forbes (2015)
JR OF/LHP Ty Moore (2015)
SO OF Kort Peterson (2015)
rJR 2B/3B Kevin Kramer (2015)
SR 1B/3B Chris Keck (2015)
rJR C Justin Hazard (2015)
rJR OF Chrisoph Bono (2015)
JR C Darrell Miller (2015)
JR 2B Trent Chatterdon (2015)
SO OF/2B Luke Persico (2016)
SO OF Brett Stephens (2016)
SO RHP Scott Burke (2016)
SO RHP Moises Ceja (2016)
SO RHP Grant Dyer (2016)
FR 3B Sean Bouchard (2017)
FR RHP Griffin Canning (2017)
FR SS/2B Nick Valaika (2017)
FR RHP Matt Trask (2017)
FR RHP Jake Bird (2017)
FR RHP Nathan Hadley (2017)
FR LHP Garrett Barker (2017)
FR 1B Zander Clarke (2017)
FR SS Scotty Jarvis (2017)
Washington
SR RHP Brandon Choate (2015)
rSR RHP Josh Fredendall (2015)
JR RHP Ryan Schmitten (2015)
SR RHP Tyler Davis (2015)
JR RHP Alex Nesbitt (2015)
JR RHP Troy Rallings (2015)
JR LHP Will Ballowe (2015)
JR OF/RHP Braden Bishop (2015)
rJR 1B/OF Branden Berry (2015)
SR 3B Alex Schmidt (2015)
JR C Austin Rei (2015)
SO LHP Henry Baker (2016)
SO OF Jack Meggs (2016)
rFR OF Mitch Bevaqua (2016)
Washington State
rJR OF Ben Roberts (2015)
rSO 2B Shea Donlin (2015)
SR RHP Sean Hartnett (2015)
rSR RHP Scott Simon (2015)
SR LHP Joe Pistorese (2015)
SR RHP Sam Triece (2015)
JR LHP Matt Bower (2015)
SO LHP Layne Bruner (2016)
SO RHP Ian Hamilton (2016)
SO OF Cameron Frost (2016)
FR INF Shane Matheny (2017)
FR RHP Nick Leonard (2017)
Utah
JR C AJ Young (2015)
JR OF Wyler Smith (2015)
JR SS Cody Scaggari (2015)
rSO 3B Dallas Carroll (2015)
JR 2B Kody Davis (2015)
JR RHP Dalton Carroll (2015)
JR RHP Bret Helton (2015)
rSO LHP Hunter Rodriguez (2015)
SO LHP Dylan Drachler (2016)
SO OF Josh Rose (2016)
SO C Max Schuman (2016)
FR OF/RHP Jayson Rose (2017)
2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Pac-12
Time for the Pac-12’s time in the sun. From where I’m sitting, the conference looks a little light in position players but plenty strong in arms. There are a few impact, early-round talents to account for in the position player group (Austin Wilson very clearly leading the way, trailed by Brian Ragira and Andrew Knapp) and some nice depth thereafter, but most of the talent in the 2013 draft class will be found on the mound. Mark Appel headlines the pitching talent with over a dozen names in serious competition to be selected second from the group. Should be a fun, competitive year with talent fairly evenly spread throughout the league. The one thing that shocked me when going through the Pac-12 rosters was the lack of interesting talent on what tends to be a traditionally strong Arizona State squad. Stanford, UCLA, Oregon, and Oregon State look to be the class of the conference, at least in terms of future professional talent. Alright, enough of that…let’s get to some 2013 MLB Draft talk.
Here’s the key for the player lists:
- Bold = locks to be drafted
- Italics = definite maybes
- Underlined = possible risers
- Plain text = long shots
Here we go…
C
- California JR C Andrew Knapp
- Oregon State JR C Jake Rodriguez
- Washington State JR C Collin Slaybaugh
- Arizona State SR C Max Rossiter
- Southern California JR C Jake Hernandez
- Washington JR C Ryan Wiggins
- Stanford JR C Brant Whiting
Without giving it a ton of thought, I think it is fair to include Andrew Knapp on any short list of best draft-eligible college catching prospects in the country. He made a really nice jump between his freshman and sophomore seasons, and I expect more of the same heading into his junior year. It is probably unfair to peg him as a “breakout” candidate for 2013 — he’s too big a name for that, I think — but a .300/.400/.500 season with improved defense behind the plate doesn’t seem out of the question. Neither Jake Rodriguez nor Collin Slaybaugh profile as everyday catchers, but both guys do enough well at the plate that their defensive versatility (infield for Rodriguez, outfield for Slaybaugh) means something beyond just a novelty. Rodriguez, who probably has the tools to play any spot on the diamond in a pinch, is especially intriguing thanks to his speed, arm, power to the gaps, and better by the day defense behind the plate. Max Rossiter and Jake Hernandez are both really good defenders who can give you a little something at the plate as well; Rossiter in particular looks like a really strong senior sign this year.
1B
- Oregon JR 1B Ryon Healy
- Oregon State SR 1B Danny Hayes
- Washington State rJR 1B Adam Nelubowich
- California rJR 1B Devon Rodriguez
- Arizona JR 1B Brandon Dixon
- Stanford SR 1B Justin Ringo
- California JR 1B Jacob Wark
- UCLA JR 1B Pat Gallagher
- Oregon JR 1B Jake Jelmini
- Arizona JR 1B Sam Parris
Healy in a nutshell, from my notes: “loved him out of HS, but now a 1B only [was a 3B in HS] so he’ll have to hit a ton to make it.” I still believe in the bat, but admit to liking Healy a little bit more than your usual 1B prospect thanks to the “break glass in case of emergency” option that is his right arm. His most direct path to the big leagues is via his bat, obviously, though his mid-90s fastball past could give him an alternate route if necessary. Danny Hayes is a legitimately great college hitter. His ability to control the strike zone, hit for power, and do it all while operating at far less than 100% physically makes him one of my favorite 2013 prospects to watch. Still, the road to the upper-levels of professional ball is littered with great college hitters who can’t replicate their success enough to make it once hitting becomes a full-time job. Adam Nelubowich has a lot of fans in the scouting community, but I’m still reticent to go all-in on him as a prospect. For all the beauty of his swing and the clearly evident raw power, he hasn’t had a whole lot of positive outcomes as a college player. I think most of his backers would also argue fairly strongly against his placement on the 1B list, citing his decent foot speed, solid reactions, and overall improved defense at the hot corner. As even a slightly below-average 3B, I’d put him on top of the list of eligible PAC-12 prospects, but, for now, I’ll stick with my perhaps overly conservative approach.
2B
- Stanford JR 2B Lonnie Kauppila
- UCLA JR 2B Kevin Williams
- Arizona State JR 2B Mike Benjamin
- Stanford JR 2B Brett Michael Doran
- Oregon JR 2B Aaron Payne
- Southern California SR 2B Adam Landecker
Lonnie Kauppila should be listed with the shortstops — he’s very good there — but I like his defense so much at second base, where he has the potential to be at or near the top of whatever league ranking he’s in, that he stays here for now. Ultimately, his value will likely come as a defense-first backup middle infielder, so it won’t really matter what position is his primary spot going forward. Kevin Williams is enough middle infielder with legitimate plus defensive ability and outstanding athleticism in the conference. Mike Benjamin has the most pop out of the group, so consider his a name to follow this spring. Fun line on Brett Michael Doran, from my notes: “walks and talks like a big league veteran.” So, if nothing else, he’s got that going for him.
3B
- Oregon State JR 3B Jerad Casper
- UCLA SR 3B Cody Regis
- Southern California JR 3B Kevin Swick
- Utah JR 3B Trey Nielsen
Third base is easily the weakest position group in the conference with a strong likelihood that no Pac-12 prospect manning the hot corner will get drafted this June. The steady fielding Jerad Casper has the best chance at the moment, though much remains to be seen in how his bat will translate to major college ball. Cody Regis will likely play little to no 3B this spring for UCLA, but has shown enough there to warrant a switch back if he gets a shot in pro ball. Swick gets high marks for his instincts and intelligence on the diamond, and his power upside remains intriguing, but he’ll have to come a long way with the bat to get noticed in time for the draft this summer. The only thing I have on Nielsen in my notes outside of basic biographical information is that he can spin a good breaking ball. That’s a positive to be sure, but not exactly what you want your calling card to be as a third base prospect.
SS
- Oregon State SR SS Tyler Smith
- Oregon SR SS JJ Altobelli
- Oregon State JR SS Kavin Keyes
- UCLA JR SS Pat Valaika
- Southern California JR SS Jimmy Roberts
- California JR SS Derek Campbell
- Washington State rSO SS Trace Tam Sing
- Stanford JR SS Danny Diekroeger
- Oregon State JR SS Andy Peterson
I’d say it isn’t every season that a team finds itself with three draft-eligible shortstop prospects of note, but Oregon State has managed to pull off the trick in 2013. Tyler Smith is a steady glove with enough range and arm for the left side who is coming off an unexpected power explosion in 2012. Kavin Keyes can play average defense at short, third, and second, but will need to show a little more with the bat in 2013 to get more pro attention. Andy Peterson is coming off of two productive years at Santa Ana JC and comes highly regarded, though he’ll have to do his best to get at bats when he can behind both Smith (SS) and Keyes (2B). JJ Altobelli, Derek Campbell, and Trace Tam Sing can all more than hold their own in the field. I think it is worth mentioning that there were plenty of rumblings out of Stanford last spring that Danny was the better ballplayer than his older brother Kenny. Not necessarily the better prospect — though I’m sure some were willing to go that far — but the better ballplayer. Many casual draft fans get angry at this kind of logic — if he’s better now, how can he not be the better prospect? — but projection is king in the world of prospecting.
OF
- Stanford JR OF Austin Wilson
- Stanford JR OF Brian Ragira
- UCLA SO OF Eric Filia-Snyder
- Washington State JR OF Jason Monda
- Arizona JR OF Johnny Field
- UCLA JR OF Brenton Allen
- Washington JR OF Will Sparks
- Oregon SR OF Andrew Mendenhall
- Utah JR OF Braden Anderson
- Oregon JR OF Connor Hofmann
- Southern California SR OF Greg Zebrack
- Oregon JR OF Kyle Garlick
- Washington SR OF Michael Camporeale
- California SR OF Vince Bruno
- Oregon JR OF Brett Thomas
- Southern California JR OF Omar Cotto Lozada
- Oregon SR OF/RHP Ryan Hambright
- Oregon State SR OF Ryan Barnes
- Oregon State SR OF Joey Matthews
- Utah SR OF Connor Eppard
- Arizona State JR OF Kasey Coffman
- Arizona State JR OF James McDonald
- Arizona State rSO OF Trever Allen
- Washington SR OF Jayce Ray
- UCLA JR OF Brian Carroll
- Oregon JR OF Tyler Baumgartner
- Stanford JR OF Brian Guymon
- Washington State rJR OF Brett Jacobs
There are some things to work on with Austin Wilson — a few swing issues that need ironing out, specifically his comically high back elbow that slows the whole operation down, and pitch recognition problems that may or may not be fixable with more at bats — but few amateur players across this country possess his blend of plus-plus power, much of it already present in-game, plus-plus arm strength, and above-average athleticism all wrapped up in a tight end strong 6-5, 250 pound frame. I do find it interesting — not good, not bad, just interesting — that after two years of college we’ve learned so little about Wilson as a prospect. He’s pretty much the same player he was as a senior in high school that he is now. Here’s what I wrote about him then:
The comps for Wilson range from silly (Dave Winfield) to topical (Andre Dawson) to “man, I feel old comparing high school kids to players I loved when I was 10″ (Juan Gonzalez, Moises Alou) to intriguingly ultra-modern and therefore ultra-hip (Mike Taylor, Mike Stanton) all the way to completely made up by me just now (Shawn Green, Ellis Burks). It goes without saying that Wilson hitting his ceiling would be blessed to have a career like any of the players listed above (minus the minor leaguers, I suppose), but they do provide some context into what has been said about Wilson’s upside as a prospect so far. The two current minor league comps stick out to me as particularly interesting; Mike Stanton is a comp that mixes Wilson’s most immediate “realistic” upside as top minor league prospect with an equally plausible estimation of his tools (power, arm, good enough speed, should be good defenders in the corner), and Mike Taylor’s name serves as a reminder that Stanford commits like Wilson are always a pain in the neck to get signed.
Power, arm, good enough speed (especially for his size), should be good defender in a corner (RF)…I’d say all that holds true today. We still don’t know for sure about his plate discipline, other than what he’s actually done on the field thus far (7 BB/53 K as freshman, 25 BB/42 K as sophomore) and what little has been observed about his inability to pick up and hit good breaking stuff. One comp that I didn’t mention back in his high school days that I think makes a world of sense now, at least in terms of hitting style and build (especially if you don’t love his plate discipline outlook): former National and current Mariner Michael Morse. I think Morse represents a fairly realistic baseline for Wilson, if/when Wilson makes it as a big league regular.
Wilson’s teammate, Brian Ragira, is a hard player to figure defensively. As great as Ragira is at first base, his offensive profile fits much, much nicer in right field. I think he has the athleticism for it, but the emergence of Dominic Smith, first base defensive whiz at the high school level, has me reconsidering my view a bit. See, Smith is such an excellent glove at first that I wouldn’t want to move him off the position even if I thought he could become an average or better glove (I do think this, by the way) in an outfield corner. If Ragira can offer the same defensive upside at first base — and many think his glove at first is on par with Smith’s for best overall in the class — then maybe you keep him there, reap the defensive rewards, and pray that the bat can at least become average or even slightly below-average for the position in time. I’d still roll the dice on him in right field — he was an excellent defender in CF as a high schooler, if memory serves — and wait out his plus raw power, mature approach (which I could see really taking a leap forward in BB/K results this year), and quick bat developing over time.
The two UCLA prospects are exactly that: prospects. If the high ranking seems unusually aggressive, then, well, it probably is. Eric Filia-Snyder has all of 53 college at bats to his name. Brenton Allen has 24 total at bats in two post-high school years. A lot of faith is being put in Filia-Snyder’s advanced hit tool and Allen’s raw speed/power combination, doubly so when you combine the lack of experience with the unfortunate truth that both guys have below-average arms that will likely limit them to LF professionally. Jason Monda remains too aggressive for his own good at the plate, but flashes enough speed, arm, power, and athleticism to remain interesting. Johnny Field is totally different: his physical tools are all underwhelming, but he can roll out of bed ready to hit line drives. If he can play 2B, as some believe, he could be a fast riser this spring.
Where things get really interesting is the next tier down. The Pac-12 is absolutely loaded with plus running athletes up and down the league. With most of these guys you’re trading some degree of refinement and experience for said speed and athleticism, but if you gamble and wind up taking the right one, you’ll be sitting pretty. Sparks, Mendenhall, Anderson, and Hofmann all have the sheer physical skills to rank third behind only the two Stanford standouts in terms of ceiling. Sparks showed well in limited chances last year, and has the best raw power of the bunch. Mendenhall remains intriguing because of the relative low price tag the senior sign figures to jump at, not to mention his higher than usual ceiling for a fourth year player. Anderson is the best runner of the group and Hofmann, the rawest of the four, offers the widest range of current tools (arm, speed, hit, range). Then there’s Omar Cotto Lozada, a player described in my notes as “if Usain bolt played baseball.” I think that comparison is probably more true than even Cotto Lozada would like: you love the plus-plus-plus speed he brings, but his current skill level at the plate is closer to what you’d expect from a real deal non-baseball player like Bolt. Greg Zebrack doesn’t fit this speed/athleticism mold — his game is more power, smarts, and approach — but he’s a fun story to watch (started at USC, then went to Penn, where I saw him, and now back at USC for grad school) as a potential late-round senior sign.
SP
- Stanford JR RHP Mark Appel
- Oregon rJR LHP Christian Jones
- UCLA JR RHP Adam Plutko
- Stanford JR RHP AJ Vanegas
- UCLA JR RHP Zack Weiss
- UCLA JR RHP Nick Vander Tuig
- Arizona State JR RHP Trevor Williams
- Oregon JR RHP Jimmie Sherfy
- Oregon State JR RHP Dan Child
- Oregon rSO RHP Clayton Crum
- Arizona JR RHP Konner Wade
- Oregon State SR LHP Matt Boyd
- Washington SR RHP Josh Fredendall
- Oregon State JR LHP Ben Wetzler
- Oregon State SR RHP Cole Brocker
- Oregon State SR RHP Tony Bryant
- California JR LHP Mike Theofanopoulos
- Oregon JR RHP Brando Tessar
- Utah SR RHP Zach Adams
- Arizona State SR RHP Alex Blackford
- California SR LHP Justin Jones
- Washington State JR RHP JD Leckenby
- Oregon rJR RHP Jeff Gold
- Washington rJR RHP Nick Palewicz
- Washington JR RHP Austin Voth
- Oregon State rSR RHP Taylor Starr
- Arizona SR RHP Tyler Hale
- Arizona JR RHP James Farris
- Oregon State JR RHP Scott Schultz
- Stanford rJR LHP Garrett Hughes
- California rSO RHP Dylan Nelson
- UCLA rJR RHP Ryan Deeter
- Arizona SR RHP Nick Cunningham
- California rJR RHP Seth Spivack
- Utah JR RHP Ben Mordini
- California JR LHP Kyle Porter
- Washington JR RHP Tyler Kane
- Stanford SR RHP Dean McArdle
- Southern California JR LHP Kyle Richter
- Washington JR RHP Trevor Dunlap
- Oregon State JR RHP Clay Bauer
- Oregon State rSO LHP Tyler Painton
- California SR RHP Ryan Wertenberger
- Southern California JR RHP James Guillen
- Arizona State SR LHP Matt Dunbar
- Washington JR RHP Jeff Brigham
- Southern California SR RHP Matt Munson
- Arizona SR LHP Vince Littleman
- Utah SR RHP Brock Duke
- Utah SR RHP Joe Pond
- California SR RHP Logan Scott
- Utah SR RHP Chase Rezac
- Southern California JR LHP Bobby Wheatley
- Washington State JR RHP Kellen Camus
- Washington JR RHP Zach Wright
- Washington State rSO RHP Scott Simon
- Utah JR LHP Tanner Banks
- Stanford SR RHP Sahil Bloom
Here’s what we said about Appel last June, no reason to switch it up now (updated only to indicate change in year and height/weight):
Stanford SR RHP Mark Appel: sits 93-97 with four-seamer, hitting 99; holds velocity late: still at 94-95 in ninth innings; all FBs typically between 90-95; 88-92 two-seam FB with excellent sink; excellent FB command, but gets in trouble with too many hitter’s strikes – almost a little bit of a great control vs. good command situation; FB also gets in trouble at higher velocity when it flattens out and comes in too straight, especially when he forgets about two-seamer; sat consistently 96-98 with FB in summer 2011; easiest high velocity arm in class by a wide margin; rarely dips below 92; opening start 2012: 91-95 FB, 97 peak; above-average 82-84 SL that remains inconsistent; low-80s CU; for me, he’s at his best when he is 92-94 with plus sink and throwing lots of SL, sometimes gets too dependent on FB and overthrows it causing him to miss up in the zone; as the spring moved on, his SL improved considerably, though it lacks the sharpness and break of a true SL (it is more of a hybrid-breaking ball at this point) – now it is a more consistent, though still not reliable, 82-85 pitch with plus upside that can reach even higher (86-87 when he rears back); 80-85 circle CU with very good sink is currently an average big league pitch with plus upside – it is currently his best swing and miss pitch and my favorite of his offspeed offerings; can get in trouble showing too much of the ball in his delivery; no denying his raw stuff – taken individually, each pitch grades out as above-average to plus down the line, but the inability to throw all three pitches for strikes on any given day continues to be his downfall; downfall is, of course, relative – he still has the upside to be a frontline starter with the realistic floor of big league innings eater; 6-5, 215 pounds
He’s good. The gap between Appel and the next best pitching prospect in the conference is immense. That’s not to say there aren’t other high upside arms to be found — a quick glance at the UCLA roster disproves this notion in a hurry — but rather demonstrates the wonderful high ceiling/high floor projection that Appel carries with him. The aforementioned UCLA staff is so deep that my favorite pro arm can’t currently crack the weekend rotation. Zack Weiss has had an up and down career for the Bruins thus far, but possesses the three above-average pitches (FB/CB/SL) that could help him take off once given a more consistent opportunity. Adam Plutko and Nick Vander Tuig, in line to start Friday and Saturday respectively this spring, are no prospect slouches in their own right. Plutko doesn’t blow his fastball by hitters, but the pitch still grades out as a consistent plus offering thanks to pinpoint command and exceptional late movement. He’ll also flash a plus low-70s curve and work in solid but unspectacular changeups and sliders. I’m pretty sure just reviewing my notes and typing this out has convinced me to swap the two guys on my list. Just goes to show how important the fastball extras (command and movement) can be, especially when joined with beautiful, consistent mechanics. Vanegas, recently shut down due to injury, has back of the bullpen stuff that should help him take a huge step up in 2013, if his health allows it. The previously mentioned Vander Tuig and Trevor Williams feel like kindred spirits from a scouting perspective: underwhelming performances, but optimism going forward thanks to fastballs with good sink, changeups that flash plus, and occasionally impressive breaking stuff. Lost in this discussion thus far is the man ranked one spot below Appel, Christian Jones. If Jones returns to even 80% of his pre-injury form before draft day, a team would be wise taking a chance on him early on. Jimmy Sherfy will be an interesting draft day case in that his numbers are second to none (14.38 K/9 in 2012) while his stuff is far more good than dominant. Dan Child fits the power-armed relief ace role more easily with a more consistently hot fastball and intimidating size (6-5, 225 pounds to Sherfy’s 6-0, 180), but hasn’t had quite the same kind of oppressive strikeout totals to date.
The overall depth of this year’s group of Pac-12 arms is quite impressive. I’m stuck wanting to talk about just about every name listed. For the sake of brevity I’ll just highlight a few interesting cases. Guys who stand out to me at this moment include Konner Wade (so well-rounded, plus sinking fastball), Matt Boyd (lefty, deep arsenal, good deception, very smart), Josh Fredenhall (everything down in zone, always), Zach Adams (inconsistent velocity, more inconsistent control, but electric when everything is working), JD Leckenby (underwhelming numbers but good stuff and excellent competitor), Taylor Starr (been in school for what seems like a decade, has endured multiple health challenges but shown good stuff when right), and Ben Mordini (one of the few players with an element of his game so bad I’d use the adjective “horrible” [control] but still flashes good stuff and can strike batters out). I feel bad leaving so many deserving pitchers without comments, so feel free to drop me a line via email or in the comments if there’s anything else that you’d like to see unearthed. One last name because I can’t help myself: Austin Voth (think I may be badly underrating him, but he throws strikes and has really good feel for his offspeed stuff, especially the change).
2012 MLB Draft: Pac-12 Pitchers to Know
There are plenty of quality arms to be found in the Pac-12 this year, from the obvious at the top (Stanford’s Friday/Saturday duo, the pair of pitchability starters from The Grand Canyon State) to the slightly more obfuscated due to injury (Jenkins, Starr, Jones, Hershiser) or questions of readiness (Jaffe, Spivack). The Pac-12 also has some good head-to-head prospect ranking battles found on the same roster, most notably the close race for first drafted pitcher from Oregon State. I prefer Boyd (three average or better pitches, loads of deception, really tough on lefties), but could definitely hear arguments for any of the players listed below. Last but not least, the Pac-12 highlights the age old debate centered around starters and relievers. Appel and Mooneyham, one and two on my personal ranking, will both enter pro ball as well-established starting pitching prospects. After that you’re left with an interesting mishmash of potential back of the bullpen relievers (Griggs, Barrett) and potential back of the rotation starters (Heyer, Rodgers). It’ll be enlightening to see where pro teams have them come June. I currently like the relievers over the starters (in the order listed above), but that’s at least in part because I think Griggs might be able to start while both Heyer and Rodgers could be moved to the bullpen in time. Emphasis on could.
Players are listed in a rough order by team. This isn’t an overall ranking. As great as this year’s Stanford team is, I do not think they have the eight best pitching prospects in all the Pac-12 on their roster. I do think they have eight pitchers that could potentially be drafted in June. That’s the difference, and that’s why we call this list “2012 MLB Draft: Pac-12 Pitchers to Know.”
- Stanford JR RHP Mark Appel
- Stanford rJR LHP Brett Mooneyham
- Stanford rSO RHP Chris Jenkins
- Stanford JR RHP Dean McArdle
- Stanford rSO LHP Garrett Hughes
- Stanford SR RHP Brian Busick
- Stanford JR RHP Sahil Bloom
- Stanford SR RHP Elliot Byers
- UCLA JR RHP Scott Griggs
- UCLA rFR RHP Eric Jaffe
- UCLA rSO RHP Ryan Deeter
- UCLA JR RHP Mike Kerman
- Arizona State JR RHP Jake Barrett
- Arizona State JR RHP Brady Rodgers
- Arizona State JR RHP Alex Blackford
- Arizona State SR RHP Joseph Lopez
- Arizona JR RHP Kurt Heyer
- Arizona JR RHP Tyler Hale
- Arizona JR RHP Nick Cunningham
- Arizona JR LHP Vince Littleman
- Oregon State JR LHP Matt Boyd
- Oregon State JR RHP Tony Bryant
- Oregon State SO LHP Ben Wetzler
- Oregon State rSR RHP Taylor Starr
- Oregon State SR RHP Ryan Gorton
- Oregon rSO RHP Jeff Gold
- Oregon JR LHP Christian Jones
- Oregon rJR RHP Joey Housey
- Oregon SR RHP Alex Keudell
- Washington rJR RHP Aaron West
- Washington rSO RHP Nick Palewicz
- Washington JR RHP George Asmus
- Washington JR RHP Adam Cimber
- California JR LHP Justin Jones
- California SR RHP Matt Flemer
- California rSO RHP Seth Spivack
- California JR RHP Logan Scott
- Southern California SR RHP Martin Viramontes
- Southern California rSR RHP Andrew Triggs
- Southern California SR RHP Ben Mount
- Southern California SR RHP Brandon Garcia
- Southern California rSR RHP Jordan Hershiser
- Utah JR RHP Tyler Wagner
- Utah JR RHP Zach Adams
- Utah JR RHP Tony Vocca
- Utah JR RHP Brock Duke
- Utah JR RHP Joe Pond
- Utah SR RHP Kesley Kondo
- Washington State JR LHP Bret DeRooy
2012 MLB Draft: Pac-12 Position Players of Note
Who needs a fancy introduction on a Monday morning? Let’s dive right in and talk about some of the west coast’s most interesting college hitters.
Catchers
- UCLA JR C Tyler Heineman
- Washington JR C Chase Anselment
- California SR C Chadd Krist
- Oregon SO C Aaron Jones
- Arizona State JR C Max Rossiter
- Southern California SR C Kevin Roundtree
- Oregon rSR C Brett Hambright
- UCLA JR C Trevor Brown
- UCLA rSO C Richie Brehaut
- Utah JR C Parker Morin
- Stanford JR C Christian Griffiths
- Washington SR C BK Santy
Heineman is a breakout 2012 star based largely on an incredibly well-rounded skill set. His defense is big league quality as is, and his approach at the plate (none other than Aaron Fitt has lauded him for never wasting at bats) is top notch. There’s a chance he’ll be one of three UCLA catchers drafted in June. Brown profiles more as a utility guy (he’s a good defender already at first, and some think he’s athletic enough to hack it at second) and Brehaut, UCLA’s starting QB and one-time member of the baseball squad, might get picked as a total projection play despite not suiting up for the Bruins team this spring. Anselment is one of the best catchers on the left coast based on the strength of his solid defense, good pitch recognition, and above-average raw power. He’s showing off that power more often in 2012 leading some (fine, me) to believe that he’s finally turning into the player many (again, me) believed he’d be as one of top prospects to come out of his high school class. Jones is a true sophomore who is listed as a 2012 draft in my notes. He’s either eligible based on his age or I’ve made a mistake. His bat and athleticism are his current calling cards, as his defense behind the plate isn’t yet quite up to snuff.
First Basemen
- Washington State rJR 1B Taylor Ard
- Oregon State JR 1B Danny Hayes
- Stanford JR 1B Justin Ringo
- Washington State rSO 1B Adam Nelubowich
- California JR 1B Devon Rodriguez
- Arizona State SR 1B Abe Ruiz
With his plus raw power and advanced approach, Ard’s upside stacks up against any collegiate first basemen in the country. Beyond Ard, I’d bet that the majority of the guys listed here will stick around until their senior years. Hayes is a gifted natural hitter, though you wouldn’t necessarily know it from his early season numbers He is hitting .188 through 17 games, but has an OBP of .409 thanks to 17 walks in only 48 at bats.
Second Basemen
- Stanford JR 2B Kenny Diekroeger
- Arizona State JR 2B Joey DeMichele
- California JR 2B Tony Renda
- Oregon State JR 2B Tyler Smith
I’m firmly on board the Diekroeger as a second baseman bandwagon. We’re talking comfortably seated, safety belt on, and 72 ounces of Mountain Dew in my Big Gulp sweating in the cup holder. When I started out in this industry over thirty years ago (just kidding, I’m only 26 and I haven’t been doing this since the crib…), a crusty old scout named Virgil O’Marty once told me, “Son, always bet on tools. Even when the Mayans explode the world and buildings and whatnot are all collapsing around us, bet on tools.” So, yeah, that’s why I like Diekroeger. Athleticism, bat speed, enough foot speed and gap power to get the opposition honest, and that sneaky strength in his 6’2”, 200 pound build that some middle infielders have (e.g. the good ones) and some don’t all add up to make him the rare college second base prospect projected to play regularly at the big league level. Renda is also a good player, especially when allowed to play his best position: batter’s box. I’m actually one of the few who believe he will always be just good enough to stay at second, but I’m happy to acknowledge I’ve seen him a lot less than many of the people who are bearish about his future sticking up the middle. The same could be said for DeMichele, one of college ball’s underrated hitters. His lack of a surefire defensive home is somewhat concerning, but guys with that combo of a true plus hit tool and even average future power (maybe a touch more with added weight) don’t grow on cacti.
Shortstops
- Arizona State JR SS Deven Marrero
- Oregon State SR SS Ryan Dunn
- Arizona JR SS Alex Mejia
Marrero is a really good prospect with the chance to be an above-average regular at arguably the sport’s most difficult to fill (shortstop or catcher, flip a coin) defensive position. I’ve never watched him play and walked away thinking he’s an impact big league talent, but the positional adjustment is something that sometimes my tiny brain has a difficult time wrapping itself around. I mean, if he’s Yunel Escobar (my own personal off the wall comp), then you’re pretty thrilled taking him early in the first round, right? I had to lower the ranking of this Ryan Dunn when I found out he was not the inspiration for Freddy Prince Jr.’s Ryan Dunne. I have six specific bullet points regarding Mejia in my notes, all of which deal with his (strong) defensive abilities. Draw your own conclusions there.
Third Basemen
- Stanford JR 3B Stephen Piscotty
- UCLA JR 3B Cody Regis
- Washington JR 3B Jake Lamb
- Arizona JR 3B Seth Mejias-Brean
- California JR 3B Mitch Delfino
- Stanford JR 3B Eric Smith
- Oregon JR 3B JJ Altobelli
I know I’ve read a pretty clever Garrett Atkins comp for Piscotty somewhere (BA?), but I’m pleased as punch to bust out the next generation perfect comp for Piscotty: former Gamecock and current Padre 3B/OF James Darnell. Both players can hit it to all fields, both guys are selective yet aggressive hitters (super plate coverage for both as well), and both are in between positions defensively. Piscotty’s upside in the field might be a little bit higher – he has a better shot at sticking at third, and has an arm that is plenty strong for RF – but the rest of the similarities (build, handedness, college numbers) are uncanny to me. Darnell was a second round pick in 2008 (fair value for Piscotty in my mind), but the relatively weak draft class could help push the Stanford slugger past that mark in 2012. Regis’s anemic start to the season has me a little concerned that something nefarious is afoot. A crowded third base field could knock him way down this list come June. Many would already have Lamb, a trendy first round sleeper coming into the year, ahead of Regis. I’d be a fool to look past Lamb’s impressive early season surge, but have a hard time reconciling his improved approach against his barely passable defense at third. He might be on a similar 3B/RF path as Piscotty, though I still think some creative team might give him a look behind the plate before it’s all said and done.
Outfielders
- UCLA JR OF Jeff Gelalich
- Stanford JR OF Jacob Stewart
- Stanford JR OF Tyler Gaffney
- Arizona State JR OF Andrew Aplin
- UCLA JR OF Beau Amaral
- Southern California JR OF Alex Glenn
- UCLA JR OF Cody Keefer
- Arizona JR OF Robert Refsnyder
- Utah SR OF Shaun Cooper
- Oregon JR OF Andrew Mendenhall
- Washington State SR OF Derek Jones
- Washington SR OF Caleb Brown
- Washington State SR OF Kyle Johnson
- Arizona JR OF Joey Rickard
- Utah JR OF Connor Eppard
- Oregon State JR OF Joey Matthews
- Southern California SR OF Alex Sherrod
- California JR OF Vince Bruno
- Oregon State JR OF Ryan Barnes
- California SR OF Danny Oh
- California SR OF Chad Bunting
- Oregon JR OF Ryan Hambright
- Washington State SR OF Patrick Claussen
- California JR OF Darrel Matthews
- Washington State JR OF Brett Jacobs
Stewart is well known for his outstanding physical skills and five-tool ceiling, but Gelalich is no tools slouch in his own right. The only clear edge I’d give one over the other is raw power (Stewart), but everything else (hit, speed, defense, arm) is close. Gelalich’s better pitch recognition and more consistent production to date make him the better prospect by a hair. After those two, the Pac-12 is littered with prospects with reports that include some variation of the phrase “leadoff hitter profile, line drive swing, CF range, good athleticism, above-average speed, below-average power.” Sorting through Gaffney, Aplin, Amaral, Keefer, Glenn, and Refsnyder took me far longer than I’d like to admit. Despite his funky swing that causes many an evaluator to knock his hit tool down a grade or two, I just plain like Gaffney to contribute something somewhere someday at the big league level. That’s probably a testament to the fact that I’m not a scout, I guess. I can’t see a swing that works the way he does and decide that it is wrong and won’t work against more advanced pitching. Not saying that’s good or bad, just pointing out a potential blind spot in what I do here. Anyway, here’s my attempt to quantify what I’ve seen out of Aplin, Amaral, Keefer, Glenn, and Refsnyder:
- Approach: Aplin, Amaral, Keefer
- Hit tool: Aplin/Amaral/Keefer/Refsnyder (four-way tie)
- Range: Glenn, Aplin, Amaral
- Speed: Glenn, Amaral, Aplin
- Arm: Aplin, Refsnyder, Glenn
- Athleticism: Glenn, Refsnyder, Amaral
- Pop: Refsnyder, Glenn, Amaral
If I assign points based on a 3-2-1 scale, I get the following totals:
- Aplin: 11
- Amaral: 9
- Keefer: 3
- Glenn: 12
- Refsnyder: 9
My original order was the one you see above: Aplin, Amaral, Keefer, Glenn, Refsnyder. After this little thought exercise, the only change that I think I’m alright with making is bumping up Glenn over Keefer. Despite the higher score, Glenn’s rawness keeps him from leapfrogging the more polished duo of Aplin and Amaral. The reports I have on Refsnyder’s range all seem to indicate he’d be best in a corner, so he stays at the bottom despite outscoring Keefer by a healthy margin. I’m all for attempts to quantify this stuff, but it makes no sense to be a slave to any flawed numbers system, right?
Cooper has crazy power, but is an all-bat LF only in the pros. Jones has very good power, but is an all-bat LF only in the pros. Mendenhall has all the tools to succeed, but hasn’t done it at the college level. He’s like a less accomplished Adam Matthews (whoa, same initials!), in a way. You could say the same thing about Caleb Brown, minus the initials comment. Johnson and Rickard could both be in that “leadoff hitter, good speed, CF range, no power” category from above, but aren’t quite talented enough to fit in the names in that group. There is some talent down the list, but many of the names are in that nebulous “more data needed” group that we’ll get to some other time.