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2016 MLB Draft Reviews – Los Angeles Angels
Top 500 Prospects Drafted by Los Angeles in 2016
27 – Matt Thaiss
56 – Brandon Marsh
137 – Nonie Williams
197 – Connor Justus
181 – Francisco Del Valle
252 – Jordan Zimmerman
264 – Troy Montgomery
272 – Cole Duensing
280 – Chris Rodriguez
345 – Brennon Lund
378 – Andrew Vinson
382 – Mike Kaelin
Complete List of 2016 Los Angeles Angels Draftees
And now a few words on some Angels draft picks…
1.16 – C Matt Thaiss
One of the fun things about the draft for me is finding out how my opinions stack up against real live MLB decision-makers. I thought I was super into Matt Thaiss (27) this spring. I thought his pre-draft ranking (27, just in case you missed it the first time) was indicative of how much I liked him. I thought that actual teams would look at his questionable defensive future behind the plate and downgrade him in a way that I didn’t. I thought that his greatest offensive strengths, namely a special awareness of balls and strikes with the added dimension of knowing what to do with those “good” strikes he battles so hard to see when ahead in the count, would be undervalued (slightly) by big league teams chasing upside and athleticism instead. Turns out, I thought wrong. I may have been super into Matt Thaiss relative to the draft boards of 29 other teams (or not, who really knows), but my interest in him paled in comparison to where the Angels valued him.
That creates an interesting dynamic that I find hard to properly explain. I really like Matt Thaiss. His bat stacks up with just about any college hitter in this class. As a catcher, this pick would make all the sense in the world. The Angels would have picked him sooner than I might have, but, hey, an offensive catcher with a long history of stellar production? Sign me up. Oh, for this situation to be so simple. The Angels decision to have Thaiss shift from catcher to first base makes judging his offensive future a little trickier. Yes, Thaiss will hit. He’ll probably even hit a lot. But the bar is obviously raised with such a position switch. Will he hit enough to bring value as a regular first baseman?
A positive offensive score at first base this year (per Fangraphs) requires a .270/.350/.410 (give or take) line. That’s what David Freese has done so far. I don’t see why Thaiss couldn’t do that, but the Angels surely didn’t use the sixteenth overall pick on a player that breaks even offensively. You figure you want at least a top ten offensive first baseman at that point in the draft, right? The bar there this year is right around a .270/.350/.500 line, not unlike what Sean Rodriguez, Carlos Santana, and Hanley Ramirez (ranked 10th, 11th, and 12th, respectively, in wRC+ among 1B) have done so far in 2016. That line feels within reach for Thaiss as well, though the power would take a little bit of a leap of faith at this point to get there. One of the benchmarks mentioned above (Carlos Santana) has joined old school cool comp Wally Joyner (heard this more than once in the spring) as possible career paths that would have to be viewed as favorable outcomes for the young lefty slugger. I think you take six years of Santana or Joyner at first base with the sixteenth overall pick in a vacuum, though I understand the trepidation some Angels fans surely feel passing up higher upside teenage bats such as Delvin Perez, Nolan Jones, Blake Rutherford, and Carter Kieboom. It’s a solid B pick if you like Thaiss as I do, but I can see it argued down to something closer to the C range (maybe a C+) when you factor in position, ceiling, and what else was on the board. Future upside gambles in rounds two and three made the relative safety of this pick a little easier to swallow.
Now that Thaiss seems locked in as a first baseman, his potential defense behind the plate could be something that forever goes down as one of baseball’s little mysteries. As such, it’s easy to stand on my side of the aisle and claim that Thaiss could hack it as a big league backstop because it’s likely to go down as a wholly unverifiable assertion. I can never be totally wrong now! I’ll go to the grave believing Thaiss could have made it work as a catcher, but that no longer matters. The Angels want him hitting, so first base it is. I think he can clear the offensive bar and become an above-average regular there; that’s pretty appropriate value for a mid-first round pick, right?
2.60 – OF Brandon Marsh
There’s Mickey Moniak, Blake Rutherford, and Alex Kirilloff. Everybody had those three as their top prep outfielders in this class. The fourth spot was very much up for grabs. Some liked Will Benson, others liked Dylan Carlson, and others still preferred Taylor Trammell. Certainly decision-makers with the Indians, Cardinals, and Reds, respectively, believed those guys were best. I liked Brandon Marsh (56). Here’s what was said about him back in May 2016…
My current lean is Brandon Marsh, the highly athletic plus to plus-plus runner out of Georgia. We know he’s got four average or better tools (you can add a plus arm, average or better raw power, and easy center field range to his hot wheels), but, like many prospects of his ilk, we don’t know how his bat will play against professional pitching. Between the swing, the bat speed, and his approach to date, there are lots of encouraging signs, so gambling you at least get an average-ish hit tool out of him seems more than fair. Combined with his other tools, that player is a potential monster.
Obviously nothing since then would have happened to change my mind. If Marsh hits, he’s a monster. If not, he’s got enough physical gifts to keep rising up and potentially serve a useful big league role. That’s one of the nice perks about drafting athletes; the speed and defense gives them a little bit more floor than many otherwise assume. Doubling up with the guy picked one round after Marsh gives the Angels two boom/bust potential center fielders if they are patient. I like the diversification of selecting Marsh (upside!), Nonie Williams (upside!), and Matt Thaiss (safety?) with their first three picks.
3.96 – SS Nonie Williams
Raw. Raw. Raw, raw, raw. And raw. That’s what I’ve heard from those who saw Nonie Williams (137) play this past summer. Makes sense based on what we saw from him in the calendar year leading up to the draft, but always interesting to get confirmation (or a dissenting view, it’s all good) from pro eyes. The tools and athleticism are eye-popping, and his approach improved enough over the course of his spring season that I thought he might hit the ground running a little bit more than he did in pro ball. No matter, as the 18-year-old has plenty of time to turn his plus speed, average to above-average raw power from both sides of the plate, and quick bat all to work for him offensively. I’m very much in on Williams, but it’s going to take some time.
4.126 – RHP Chris Rodriguez
Chris Rodriguez (280) has a big-time arm. You get the “big-time arm” treatment when you have two potential plus pitches (90-95 FB, impressive hard cut-SL) and youth (17 when drafted) on your side. There’s really no telling where Rodriguez will go from here, but with those two pitches at the ready he’s off got a chance to make some noise. It’s easy to envision him as a nasty late-inning reliever if something softer can’t be developed over the years, though (of course) the Angels will make every effort to develop him as a starter first.
5.156 – SS Connor Justus
A “friend” of mine who is actually a great big jerk likes to point out how much I liked Kyle Holder in last year’s draft every time we talk. He tried to talk me out of it by saying he thought Holder would never hit enough to make any kind of impact at the big league level. We’ll see. I bring it up because he was insistent this spring that anybody who liked Holder last year (as I did) should be all about Connor Justus (197) in 2016. I think he’s right. Justus can play. There are no questions here about his ability to stick at short; in fact, he’ll do more than just stick there, he’ll thrive there. That alone makes him a prospect of some value, so anything you get with the bat is gravy. Something between a reliable fielding utility type and an average or so regular feels like a realistic outcome. I like that value in round five quite a bit.
6.186 – RHP Cole Duensing
If you’re an Angels fan, you have to be excited about the front office drafting and signing both Chris Rodriguez and Cole Duensing (272) in the first six rounds. I mean, I’m not an Angels fan and I’m excited so that should tell you something. Duensing is long on projection with a frame (6-4, 180 pounds) that seems ready willing and able to pack on a few good pounds and up his already solid (88-92, 94 peak) fastball velocity a few ticks before we call him a finished product. His slider looks like a potential weapon as is and his athleticism is exactly where you want it to be for a prep righthander.
7.216 – 2B Jordan Zimmerman
Jordan Zimmerman (252) is a nice prospect. His draft ranking shows that I like him. Forthcoming words will confirm this. So please don’t take this the wrong way. But…
.422/.478/.639 in 92 PA
.154/.236/.208 in 148 PA
Top is Zimmerman in rookie ball. Bottom is Zimmerman in Low-A. Plenty of guys have come back from slow starts in full-season ball, so, again, this isn’t a knock on Zimmerman as a prospect. All I’m trying to say is DAMN pro baseball is tough. Zimmerman is a really good hitter. His rookie ball numbers line up nicely with his junior year stats at Michigan State. He can hit. But the jump to a full-season league is no joke. Anyway, here what was written about Zimmerman in April…
The one non-catcher in the group is Jordan Zimmerman. The offseason buzz on Zimmerman was that he was a good runner with an above-average arm and a chance to hit right away. All true so far. The only issue I have with Zimmerman as a prospect is where he’ll play defensively as a professional. I had him as a second baseman in my notes throughout the offseason, but he’s played a ton of first base so far for the Spartans. If he’s athletic enough to make the switch to second as a pro, then he’s a prospect of note. If not, then all the standard disclaimers about his bat needing to play big to keep finding work as a first baseman apply. I believe in the bat and skew positive that he can handle a non-first infield spot (again, likely second), but those beliefs don’t change the fact that I need to find out more about him.
Zimmerman played exclusively second in his debut, both in rookie ball and Low-A. That’s a promising sign. Getting back to those rookie ball/college ways AND continuing to play a passable second base would make Zimmerman some kind of prospect. A potential big league player even. If that’s the case, then he’ll be the second player with that name with that name to get to the highest level. Not that one, though. Jordan Zimmermann is one of a kind. We’re talking Jordan Zimmerman, reliever on the 1999 Mariners. Go win yourself a bar bet with that one.
8.246 – OF Troy Montgomery
OF Troy Montgomery (264) is such a good ballplayer. Underrated for almost all of his three years at Ohio State, his pro debut opened seriously opened some eyes around the game. Here was the chatter from April…
Montgomery is built just a little differently – he stands in at 5-10, 180 pounds, giving the OSU faithful a fun visual contrast to Dawson’s stacked 6-2, 225 pound frame – but is an area scout favorite for his smart, relentless style of play. Every single one of his tools play up because of how he approaches the game, and said tools aren’t too shabby to begin with. Montgomery can hit, run, and field at a high level, and his lack smaller frame belies power good enough to help him profile as a regular with continued overall development. I’m bullish on both Buckeyes.
I just really like Montgomery. Sometimes guys you just plain like are the hardest to write about. Love Montgomery, love this pick. I think Montgomery is a future regular with sneaky star upside.
9.276 – C Michael Barash
It was surprising to me to see Michael Barash go before a few other college catching favorites, but his nice debut in Low-A has made the Angels look pretty smart so far. He certainly has the defensive chops to remain behind the plate — as noted below, he was the only one of the four college catchers selected by Los Angeles to play regularly as a catcher this season — so the onus will be on his bat to see how high up the system he’ll advance. If he keeps hitting, I could see him logging some time as a big league backup down the line.
10.306 – RHP Andrew Vinson
Andrew Vinson (378) does a lot well. His fastball is fine if a tad short (86-91), his offspeed is solid (CB and CU), he’s a really good athlete, and he put up stellar numbers every single season he was at Texas A&M. I could see him soaking up innings as a starter in the low-minors before eventually getting shifted to the bullpen in the high-minors, a spot that should give him his best shot at pitching in the big leagues one day. I have a hard time betting against a guy coming off consecutive dominant years in the SEC — 9.00 K/9 and 1.97 BB/9 in 2015 (2.11 ERA), 10.19 K/9 and 1.48 BB/9 in 2016 (2.40 ERA) — with just enough stuff that shows he did it with more than just smoke and mirrors. Vinson is my kind of senior-sign.
11.336 – OF Brennon Lund
We go way back with Brennon Lund (345), as you can see from these notes from his high school days…
OF Brennon Lund (Bingham HS, Utah): quick bat; really good defender; CF range; plus speed; leadoff profile; above-average to plus arm; great athlete; not a ton of power, but enough; plays within himself offensively; 5-10, 180 pounds
That evaluation was enough to rank him exactly one spot ahead of fellow prep outfielder Corey Ray. Old rankings are fun. In the not-so-distant past (March 2016), this was said…
Lund is putting it all together this year for BYU. In his case, “all” refers to plus speed, easy center field range, a plus arm, and above-average raw power. My soft spot for Jones has to be evident because the player I just described in Lund sounds pretty damn exciting. I’d consider it a minor upset if he doesn’t overtake the field as the second highest WCC hitter drafted (and ranked by me) this June.
He wound up the fifth highest WCC hitter drafted behind Bryson Brigman (87), Gio Brusa (185), and Nate Nolan (236), and Joey Harris (274). So there’s your minor upset. His solid debut, much of which was spent in Low-A, reinforces his upside as a potential average-ish regular player or damn fine backup piece. I think the tools are starter quality while his approach might make him more of a bench bat.
12.366 – LHP Bo Tucker
Here we have an age-eligible sophomore pitcher who I had no idea was an age-eligible sophomore pitcher. There are limits to my knowledge, it appears. Here were my notes on him from my 2017 MLB Draft file…
SO LHP Bo Tucker (2017): 87-90 FB; good CU; good 75 CB; good deception; 6-4, 210 pounds (2015: 8.13 K/9 – 4.65 BB/9 – 31.0 IP – 2.03 ERA) (2016: 8.61 K/9 – 3.88 BB/9 – 53.1 IP – 3.71 ERA)
It’s a little weird (and encouraging!) how steady his peripherals have remained. You can see what he did in his first two years at Georgia. Then he did this in his pro debut: 8.33 K/9 – 3.45 BB/9 – 31.1 IP – 5.17 ERA. Could be an interesting matchup lefty if he can keep it up.
14.426 – OF Francisco Del Valle
OF Francisco Del Valle (181) has monster lefthanded power and loads of strength in his 6-1, 190 pound 18-year-old frame. There is a very long way from what he could be from where he is now, but the upside is exciting. Prototypical boom/bust prospect that is outstanding value this late in the game.
15.456 – RHP Mike Kaelin
I love Mike Kaelin (382), as that number in parentheses may suggest. Undersized righthanded relievers who can crank it up to 95 are almost always going to be favorites in my book. Add on to that Kaelin’s long history of missing bats (12.14 K/9 in 2015, 11.31 K/9 in 2016) and impeccable control, and the Angels very well could have just nabbed a handy middle reliever in round fifteen.
16.486 – SS Keith Grieshaber
The name Keith Grieshaber did not ring a bell at first, but after a quick search it all came back to me. I’m not 100% sure if this is the only draft site on the internet to have Keith Grieshaber notes, but I can’t imagine the list is very long…
2B/SS Keith Grieshaber (Marquette HS, Missouri): good athlete; good speed; good arm; good bat speed; power upside; 6-2, 185 pounds
Those were his notes after his high school season wrapped up in 2014. He went from there to Arkansas before eventually finding a home at Jefferson JC. A good redshirt-freshman season there gave the middle infielder notoriety to get drafted in the sixteenth round by the Angels. I’ll be curious to learn more about his defense, but the bat is enough to get my attention for now.
17.516 – OF Zach Gibbons
You can skip down to the John Schuknecht to save a little time here. Like Schuknecht, Zach Gibbons torched pro pitching in his first shot playing in the Pioneer League. Like Schuknecht, Gibbons was a 22-year-old beating up on teenage pitching in a short-season league. We don’t really know what it all means just yet, but we do know it’s better to hit than to not hit. Gibbons brings interesting power and a strong arm to the fold, and his plate discipline indicators were consistently excellent over his years at Arizona. He’s off to a good start. Let’s see if he can keep it up.
19.576 – SS Cody Ramer
In part of the pre-draft notes on Cody Ramer here, it was said that he “has flashed more pop than thought possible” noting that “whether or not it is sustainable is the question.” Ramer’s most substantial run of playing time before his breakthrough senior season at Arizona came during his sophomore campaign. That year he hit .250/.392/.290 in 124 AB. In his senior season, he hit .356/.452/.494. That’s some transformation. Questioning the realness of said changes felt more than fair at the time, but we’re getting close to the point that maybe accepting the new Cody Ramer would be a smart move. His more than solid (and completely out of nowhere) senior year ISO of .138 was actually lower than the .154 ISO he had in his pro debut. Small samples all around, but certainly encouraging. If Ramer is anything close to the hitter he has shown himself to be in his last 250 or so AB split between Arizona and the pros, then his utility player upside could tick up to potential big league regular at second base.
20.606 – C Jack Kruger
Jack Kruger was the third of four college catchers taken by the Angels in 2016. It might not seem like it, but that’s a lot. I remember wondering on draft weekend how they’d find a way to get each guy enough reps behind the plate to keep them developing as backstops. Well, it turns out that doing so wasn’t part of the plan after all. Matt Thaiss played first base and first base only. Brennan Morgan saw some time behind the plate, but the majority of his on-field innings were at first. Michael Barash actually caught, so that’s cool. And here we have Kruger, who might be a catcher…or not. Maybe he’s a utility guy who can catch. Maybe he’s just a plain old regular utility guy. No matter where he lands defensively, I think he can hit. From April 2016…
Jack Kruger, the best of the bunch, is an advanced bat and consistently reliable defender behind the plate. He’s got the best shot at playing regularly in the big leagues, especially if you’re buying into his hit tool and power both playing average or better. I think I do, but his “newness” as a prospect works against him some. Of course, like almost all real draft prospects, Kruger isn’t new. Here was his quick report written on this very site back in 2013…
C Jack Kruger (Oaks Christian HS, California): outstanding defensive tools, very strong presently; gap power
For area guys covering him this spring, however, he’s “new.” From limited at bats as a freshman at Oregon to solid but unspectacular junior college numbers at Orange Coast to his solid and borderline spectacular start to 2016 at Mississippi State, there’s not the kind of extended track record that some teams want to see in a potential top ten round college bat. Maybe I’m overstating that concern – he was a big HS prospect, Orange Coast College is a juco that gets lots of scout coverage, he played well last summer in the California Collegiate League, and both Oregon and Mississippi State are big-time programs – but players have slipped on draft day for sillier reasons. Any potential fall – no matter the reason — could make Kruger one of the draft’s better catching value picks.
I think getting Kruger in round twenty qualifies as enough of a fall to call him one of the draft’s better catching value picks. Of course, that assumes he’ll be tried behind the plate again. Kruger played only designated hitter in his debut pro season. I think he can catch, but the backup plan of him hopping around the diamond as needed is fun, too. He’s versatile enough to play a variety of positions including both second base and third base. I haven’t seen enough of Kruger to feel great about this comparison, but a lot of the notes I have on him remind me of what we were saying about Austin Barnes back in his Arizona State days. Have to like that in the twentieth round.
21.636 – OF LJ Kalawaia
I know nothing of LJ Kalawaia except for his stellar senior year stats (.396/.493/.578 with 40 BB/32 K and 23/31 SB), plus speed, and muscle-packed 5-11, 180 pound frame. As I always say (and will likely repeat a few times before this very draft review concludes), if you’re going to take a chance on a mid- to late-round college guy, find an ultra-productive one. Kalawaia fits the bill.
23.696 – OF Torii Hunter
Notre Dame rSO OF Torii Hunter: plus-plus speed; CF range; 40th round pick to Twins lock; 6-0, 190 pounds (2016: .182/.308/.182 – 2 BB/6 K – 2/2 SB – 11 AB)
That’s what I wrote about Hunter before the draft. The speed and range are legit, but my Minnesota prediction can be tossed out. My only solace comes in the wondering if the Twins were actually planning on taking Hunter later, but were cut off at the pass by the Angels. If that’s the case, I don’t think anybody could blame the Twins for being caught flat-footed. Never in my wildest imagination could I have seen Hunter going in the twenty-third round. Thirty-third? Maybe. I had assumed he was a final three round nepotism pick. Not only did the Angels take him with a “real” pick, but they also gave him $100,000 to sign. Whether or not he ever suits up for an Angels affiliate remains to be seen. He’s currently in the midst of his redshirt-junior season as a wide receiver on the Notre Dame football team. He can a) enter the NFL Draft in 2017, b) return to Notre Dame for a final post-grad season in 2017, or c) give up football for baseball and report for spring training next year. He could also combine option a or b with option c, assuming all parties involved are cool with the agreement. The first option seems most likely considering Hunter is set to graduate at the halfway point of the current school year. From there, who knows if or when he’ll return to the diamond.
So there you go: 235 words on a football player coming off a draft year of 11 whole at bats who may or may not ever play a single inning in pro baseball. I regret nothing.
24.726 – C Brennan Morgan
We’ll know more about Brennan Morgan after he gets challenged with full-season ball next year, but so far so good. He hit for the Orem Owlz just like he did for the Kennesaw State Owls. I guess you can think of him as the twenty-fourth round version of Matt Thaiss. Both are accomplished college hitters that I think are good enough to catch a little bit (admittedly a minority opinion at this point), but played tons of first base to kick off their pro careers. Even at first, Morgan’s bat could make him an actual prospect in this system. Maybe you can turn this mid-round pick into a platoon bat down the line. That are worse outcomes here.
25.756 – OF Cameron Williams
I can’t say with any certainty what the Angels saw in Cameron Williams, but if I had to guess I’d lean towards his burgeoning power and solid speed tempting them into taking a mid-round chance on him. Too much swing-and-miss for me personally, but I saw Williams up close far less than Los Angeles did. Like, take the number of times they saw him and subtract that by itself. That’s how many times I saw Williams play this past year.
26.786 – OF Derek Jenkins
Speed and center field range are the calling cards for Derek Jenkins. His complete lack of power could be his undoing. Check him out through his years at Seton Hall: .023 ISO in 2014, .018 ISO in 2015, and .039 ISO in 2016. Predictably, his biggest problem in pro ball as a rookie came in the way of a .009 ISO. That’s one double 127 plate appearances. Not going to cut it.
27.816 – RHP Greg Belton
If results are your thing, then Greg Belton is a guy to know. The Sam Houston State alum has a knack for sitting down a batter per inning with decent control to boot. His stuff mostly fits the generic righthanded reliever mold (88-93 MPH fastball, solid curve), but a changeup that flashes plus could be a separator for him in the pros. Like many of the Angels later round college picks, time is against him. Belton will be 24-years-old to start his first full pro season in 2017.
29.876 – RHP Blake Smith
Size (6-5, 230), heat (up to 94-95), and a potent breaking ball (knuckle-curve in my notes, but I’ve seen it listed as a few different things elsewhere) give Blake Smith a chance to keep pitching late in games as a pro. He’ll have to curtail some of his wildness to hit that ceiling, but his physical gifts are impressive and his mound presence imposing.
31.936 – RHP Johnny Morell
I could have sworn I’ve written about Johnny Morell at some point here, but it doesn’t appear to be the case. Kind of a shame, as the $100,000 prep righthander has more promise than most draftees taken this late in the process. Doug Miller wrote a really cool story about Morrell and his relationship with Ryan Madson; come for the heartwarming tale, stay for the details about Morell’s stuff (e.g., fastball up to 94).
32.966 – RHP Doug Willey
All I have on Doug Willey in my notes on the site: “Franklin Pierce transfer.” Good senior year numbers at Arkansas, too. He’ll be 25 (!) in January.
33.966 – LHP Justin Kelly
Justin Kelly had a fantastic final season for UC Santa Barbara: 14.37 K/9 and 3.50 BB/9 in 20.2 IP. His debut with the Angels had solid peripherals (maybe a little too wild) and ugly run prevention stats. He’ll be 24-years-old next April, so his career will really have to get moving quickly if he has a shot in this game. I’m rooting for him because I root for everybody, but I don’t quite know what to do with a player who’s name is a living reminder of this. Can’t tell if it makes me like him more or less. I’m leaning…more.
34.1026 – LHP JD Nielsen
You could do worse than a lefty with size (6-6, 240) and a solid breaking ball in the thirty-fourth round. JD Nielsen can run it up to the upper-80s and has consistently found a way to miss bats while a member of the Fighting Illini. Interesting thing that may not actually be all the interesting: Nielsen walked over twice as many batters in half as many innings as a pro than he did as a college senior. He walked five guys in thirty innings as a senior before walking eleven guys in fifteen innings as a pro.
35.1056 – RHP Sean Isaac
Sean Isaac was an absolute workhorse for Vanguard this past spring. He averaged over seven innings per start and accounted for almost 40% of his team’s strikeouts on the mound. He whiffed over one hundred more batters than his next closest teammate. That’s all I really know about him. Fangraphs has him incorrectly listed as “Sean Issac,” so I guess there’s that, too. Get it together, Fangraphs!
36.1086 – SS Jose Rojas
Vanguard University is fifteen minutes away from Angel Stadium. I think that’s noteworthy, but maybe that’s just me. I go back and forth when it comes to teams using multiple picks from players from the same school (pros: they’ve seen them often and know them best; cons: the odds that an entire nation’s [plus Canada and Puerto Rico] worth of prospects both attend a small local university seem…remote), but I realize I’m just one tiny voice railing against a fairly obscure draft idiosyncrasy that nobody else seems to worry too much about. Anyway, Jose Rojas had a really nice season at Vanguard (.361/.430/.673 – 30 BB/14 K – 16/18 SB) and a solid pro debut. He played both second and third in said debut, so a long shot future as a utility guy seems like the dream here. This means nothing at all, but it intrigued me: his favorite player, per the Vanguard website, is Mo Vaughn. Fun favorite player to have.
37.1116 – OF John Schuknecht
Coming off a legitimately great debut as a professional, John Schuknecht is ready for a bigger challenge. Many times a great debut from a late round pick is not much more than the vagaries of small sample size leaning to the positive, but it’s still worth it to explore a bit deeper just in case. I can’t imagine the pressure late round picks must feel in their first few months in pro ball. A bad debut often means an offseason release. A good debut, like Schuknecht’s, can get you a longer look during instructs and potentially set you up for a full season “sink or swim” assignment. Hope Schuknecht is ready to dive into the deep end.
38.1146 – OF Tyler Bates
As far as I can tell, Tyler Bates is the first player drafted out of East Texas Baptist in forty years. He hit .407/.495/.751 (22 BB/19 K and 12/15 SB) in his final season as a Tiger. Then he went out and had a fine debut in the AZL. He’s got my attention.
39.1176 – 2B Richard Fecteau
Richard Fecteau is the second ever draftee from Salem State. Though listed as a second baseman during the draft, the 22-year-old infielder played the majority of his innings at third base in his debut. He struggled adjusted to pro pitching in his debut, but at least managed to keep his reputation as a patient, smart hitter very much intact. Between that and his senior line of .393/.478/.601 (24 BB/11 K and 14/15 SB), I’m intrigued enough to put him on the super duper mega deep sleeper list. I like these last two picks by the Angels a lot. Taking highly productive small school players shows that they value these late round picks.
40.1206 – 1B Brad Anderson
Brad Anderson was one of five fortieth round picks to sign this year across baseball. That alone is pretty cool to me. The last signed fortieth round pick to reach the big leagues is Brandon Kintzler, a still active reliever out of Dixie State who has pitched in the big leagues with both Milwaukee and Minnesota. That was back in 2004. Since then there have been plenty of quality players drafted in the last round (many have gone back to school and eventually reached the big leagues), but none have reached the majors using their round forty draft position as their jumping off point. Anderson and his four fortieth round brothers will attempt to be the first to climb the major league mountain in a dozen years. The odds are obviously against them, but the precedent set by Kintzler and others like him give the glimmer of hope needed to make a run at it. Lost in this somewhat is the fact that Anderson is a pretty decent prospect. The approach isn’t what you’d want, but his power is legit. Can’t argue with getting a guy with a clear big league tool with pick 1206.
Unsigned Prospects and Where You Can Find Them in 2017
David Oppenheim (USC), David Hamilton (Texas), Robbie Peto (North Carolina), Anthony Molina (Northwest Florida JC), Troy Rallings (unsigned as he recovers from TJ surgery, but out of college eligibility and the Angels still hold his rights)
If Rallings does eventually sign, he’d be a fine addition to the system. He’s one of the best of this year’s sinker (88-92)/slider (78-84) reliever archetype with pinpoint control and a long track record of success as a collegiate closer at Washington. If the recovery goes well, I think he’s a future big league pitcher.
2016 MLB Draft Mock Draft – Territorial Rights
The 2016 MLB Draft will be here before we know it, so that can only mean one thing: it’s MOCK DRAFT season. It’s been a few years since I published a mock draft around here, but I figured it was finally time to get back in the game. Of course, since I can’t offer much in the way of insider intel — I’m not BA-era peak Jim Callis over here — putting together a mock would be pretty much pointless. With the proper analysis attached to each pick mock drafts can be fun and interesting reads, not to mention a great way of exposing casual fans — the number of people who Google “2016 mlb mock draft” that find this site is insane, at least relative to the four people who read on their own volition otherwise — to players they might have not yet heard of. I might attempt a mock like that between now and June. Or not. Either way, this ain’t it.
So until then (or not) we’ll have some fun and take the idea of a mock draft to the logical extreme. If “mock” means to make something seem laughably unreal or impossible, let’s make our mock draft as unreal or impossible as we can. Our fourth edition of this 2016 MLB Mock Draft is based on territorial rights. Teams can only draft a player that currently plays amateur ball in within the confines of their state. Easy enough, right? Unfortunately this means no Jay Groome, Nick Senzel, Riley Pint, Delvin Perez, Corey Ray, Alec Hansen, Connor Jones, Josh Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Matt Krook, Dakota Hudson, Anthony Kay, Joe Rizzo, Jordan Sheffield, Will Craig…and on and on and on and on. It does, however, allow for some fun mid-first round steals and a few interesting decisions when picking players from states both big and small. Let’s do it…
1 – Philadelphia Phillies – Holy Ghost Prep SS/3B Nolan Jones
My home state of Pennsylvania has nine D1 schools with baseball programs covering five different conferences. I’ve seen four of the schools already — Penn, Lafayette, St. Joe’s, Villanova — and have a shot to see all nine by the end of the season if I plan my schedule out creatively. There are some solid prospects at those universities — David Bednar stood out so far — who will most definitely be drafted this June, but the real strength of the 2016 Pennsylvania draft class is in the prep talent. My very preliminary look at this year’s high school class has around a dozen names that could get drafted this year out of the state. The best is Nolan Jones, a prospect good enough to be on the short list of the Phillies in a non-nonsense mock draft (i.e., what we call “real life”). Jones has all the tools to be a plus defender at the hot corner with the raw power and aptitude for hitting that could make him one of the best all-around infielders to come out of this class. He’s a really exciting prospect…and a truer “local” prospect to Philadelphia than a certain Jersey lefty, if you’re into that sort of thing.
2 – Cincinnati Reds – Ohio State OF Ronnie Dawson
Cincinnati had a surprisingly high number of options despite being limited to picking only from Ohio. With eleven D1 schools to choose from — some of which were not instantly recognizable to me as Ohio schools, like Wright State and…fine, just Wright State — there was plenty of college talent to make up for the lack of interesting high school prospects. Ronnie Dawson barely beat out teammate Troy Montgomery, Sean Murphy, and the TBD eventual pick of the Indians below. I cringe a little when I hear some of the terms scouts use to describe players — a far worse practice in football than baseball, admittedly — but one of those terms I hate applies too well to Dawson to ignore: he’s a beast. Big, strong, athletic, powerful, fleet of foot…there’s no other way to put it, he’s a beast.
3 – Atlanta Braves – Mercer OF Kyle Lewis
Turns out Georgia, one of the strongest states for high school draft prospects in recent years, actually has less D1 schools that play ball (seven) than either Pennsylvania or Ohio. Go figure. Josh Lowe, Carter Kieboom, Will Benson, Taylor Trammel, and Alex Speas (among many others) keep that impressive prep tradition alive in 2016, but the Braves, long rumored to covet a college bat early on draft day, can’t pass up the biggest, baddest name in the college game. Locking down a future fixture in the middle of your order isn’t a bad way to accelerate the rebuild. Between those high school players and Lewis, Georgia just might be my favorite prospect state in this year’s class.
4 – Colorado Rockies – Air Force RHP Griffin Jax
I debated on a few high school arms before finally settling on Regis Jesuit RHP Bo Weiss as the pick here. Then I realized I totally blanked on Air Force being right around Colorado Springs. That made the selection a little bit easier and a little bit harder all at once. I’d take either Griffin Jax or Jacob DeVries over any of the admittedly intriguing group of 2016 Colorado prep pitchers (really like Paul Tillotson and Travis Marr is interesting, too), but choosing between the two Air Force co-aces isn’t easy. Jax gives you a little more certainty than DeVries — who might have a little bit of recently acquired Rockies closer Jake McGee in him now that I think about it — with the added benefit of being no slouch in the upside department in his own right. I really think Colorado is building something potentially special. While a rock solid mid- to late-rotation arm might seem like the sexiest pick, Jax is the kind of guy you can take for granted (in a good way) as a useful big league piece without worrying about him stalling out for anything but an injury.
5 – Milwaukee Brewers – Verona Area HS C Ben Rortvedt
Much has been made about this year’s high school class having talented players spring out of traditionally unconventional places. One of the better examples of that is how top-heavy the prep prospects in Wisconsin are this year. There’s depth to be sure, but it’s the top tier guys that really make the state stand out. As I cycled through names I kept finding myself saying “Oh yeah, it’ll be him,” before getting to the next name and reconsidering. Nate Brown and Gavin Lux, in particular, are players that would almost certainly be the best in their class in any other year. Instead, the Brewers attempt to get their catcher of the future in Ben Rortvedt, a wholly impressive defensive player who combines outstanding physical strength with above-average agility behind the dish.
6 – Oakland Athletics – La Costa Canyon HS OF Mickey Moniak
If the draft is held on a day that ends in a Y, then that must mean that California is loaded with pro prospects. This pick came down to Mickey Moniak vs Blake Rutherford, easily the most fascinating prospect head-to-head battle in this class right now. I’d get more enjoyment watching Moniak run down fly balls in Oakland’s big dumb ballpark than Rutherford hit balls out of it, so Moniak takes it.
7 – Miami Marlins – Miami C Zack Collins
I’ll keep banging the drum for Zack Collins as a legitimate top ten pick as long as it takes for somebody to take note. If Kyle Schwarber can go fourth overall, then why not Collins? If anything, I think Collins is the better draft prospect of the two.
8 – San Diego Padres – Chaminade Prep OF Blake Rutherford
The Padres might be best served by these rule changes than any other team in this mock. Their future real life haul should be pretty impressive — holding three picks in the top twenty-five makes them the envy of every scouting department — but the damage they could do just by poaching half of the top half-dozen prospects from California could wind up just as extensive. Whether you love Rutherford or still have reservations about his game (or find yourself gutless riding the fence…like me!), getting him with the eight overall pick is fun.
9 – Detroit Tigers – Michigan 1B/LHP Carmen Benedetti
Search for “Carmen Benedetti” on this site. I’ve written a lot about him lately. Assuming you don’t — and good for you not being bossed around by some baseball nerd on the internet — the quick version is he’s really good at baseball, both the hitting/fielding part and the pitching part. I’ve likened him to Brian Johnson more than once, and I think he’s shown enough as a position player to get a shot in the field first. The raw power might not scream slam dunk future big league regular at first base, but the overall offensive and defensive profile could make him an above-average regular for a long time.
10 – Chicago White Sox – Illinois RHP Cody Sedlock
I appreciate that of the eleven schools that play D1 baseball in Illinois, eight have Illinois directly in the university name. That made my life a lot easier when searching my database. My mind still kept wanting to give the White Sox Corey Ray, but that would be against our hastily put together yet very important ironclad rules. Future big league starter Cody Sedlock isn’t a bad consolation prize. Bradley, Chicago State, and Northwestern are the three Illinois schools without Illinois in the name…just in case you were wondering.
11 – Seattle Mariners – Federal Way HS 1B/OF Christian Jones
It was a close call between Ian Hamilton and Christian Jones, but the bat trumped the arm in the end. That’s often my personal preference on these things. Jones has been on the radar for me as much for the sound he makes on contact than any visual observation I’ve made. If he can play the outfield professionally, as many are beginning to think, then so much the better.
12 – Boston Red Sox – Boston College RHP Justin Dunn
With apologies to the dynamic duo of Dustin Hunt and Aaron Civale at Northeastern, it’s Justin Dunn and his easy upper-90s heat that finds himself on the fast track to Fenway’s bullpen. If Dunn (or Jesse Adams, John Nicklas, Mike King, or any other Eagle) does get drafted by Boston this June, then he’ll be the first to turn the trick since Jed Rogers in 2001 and only the sixth BC to the Red Sox draft connection fo all-time. How about that? Dunn (and/or the rest) would also attempt to have a pro career that finished with positive bWAR, something that has been done only once (!) in school history so far. Of the six Boston College players to reach the big leagues, five had/have negative career bWAR. Only Tony Sanchez’s 0.4 figure is in the black.
13 – Tampa Bay Rays – Florida LHP AJ Puk
The Rays take advantage of our draft rules to land arguably this draft’s top college pitching prospect. Even coming off an aborted start due to a balky back, AJ Puk is currently trending up as he rides the rollercoaster that has taken him from underrated (this time last year) to overrated (much of the offseason) to potentially a tad underrated once again. He probably never should have been pushed so heavily as a potential 1-1 guy — in the mix, sure, but not as the favorite/co-favorite — but his value settling even just a few picks after feels about right. It sounds a bit superficial because maybe it is, but 1-1 guys get picked apart in a way that even potential top five candidates do not. The focus has been on Puk’s inconsistent slider, underwhelming change, and spotty command. That’s what he can’t do. What he does well — pitch off an explosive mid-90s fastball, flash a dominant mid-80s slider, and use his 6-7, 225 pound frame to every advantage possible — he does really darn well. Needless to say he’d be a steal at thirteen.
14 – Cleveland Indians – Kent State LHP Eric Lauer
I’ll quote myself on Lauer, if you’ll allow it…
There isn’t a box that he doesn’t check when looking for a potentially quick-moving above-average mid-rotation big league starting pitcher. He’s an athletic (like Plesac) lefthander (like Deeg/Akin), with good size (like Deeg/Plesac), very strong performance indicators (10.78 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9), above-average heat (88-94) that he commands like a pro, and a complete assortment of offspeed pitches (74-77 CB, 78-82 SL, emerging CU) he can throw in any count. One could quibble by noting there’s no singular knockout pitch here – maybe with continued work one of his secondaries can become a consistent plus pitch, but certainly not presently – so maybe Lauer’s best case scenario outcome isn’t quite that of some of his peers across the country, but that’s a nitpick for a still impressive ceiling/high floor starting arm. Maybe you don’t love him – I kind of do, clearly…but maybe you don’t – but he’s still a prospect that’s hard not to at least like.
15 – Minnesota Twins – Minnesota C Austin Athmann
There’s no young Joe Mauer hiding in the the Gopher State this year, but the Minnesota University battery of Dalton Sawyer to Austin Athmann gives the Twins two intriguing draft options right off the top. Again we go hitter over pitcher when the talent levels appear close from the outside looking in. Athmann has a strong arm and really solid 2016 numbers. Good enough for me.
16 – Los Angeles Angels – Cal RHP Daulton Jefferies
I like this pick because it helps make this feel more like a mock draft than a random assortment of players listed according to arbitrary rules. The Angels would have their pick from a ton of talented California prospects, but here they opt for the relatively safety of Daulton Jefferies. As much fun as going for a home run pick would be — Avery Tuck, one of the many prep arms, and Lucas Erceg all come to mind — the Angels simply can not afford to come away from this draft with a serious early round hit. Jefferies is as close to big league ready as any college starter in this class, so it’s a pretty perfect marriage.
17 – Houston Astros – Rice RHP Jon Duplantier
I’ve typed and deleted a few different variations of how down Texas is this year, but can’t bring myself to go through with it. There are a handful of high school prospects as always — less than usual it seems — and all of the college programs seem down. Those might be too broad generalizations — I’m waiting for a fan of one of the schools in Texas (not Dallas Baptist, though, because they are awesome and everybody should know that) to call me out any second now — but A&M (the best of the bunch), Baylor, Rice, TCU, Tech, and, most egregiously, Texas all seem down relative to the standards we’ve come to expect. None of that should diminish the accomplishments and credentials of Jon Duplantier, who has pitched his tail off all season long. Despite rarely mentioned as a potential first round pick, Duplantier has sneaky top of the rotation upside. The only red flag is the university he pitches for; thankfully, that risk is mitigated some by the fact his history of missing time with relatively minor injuries has prevented his coach from overworking him so far. Smaller injuries might have prevented him from getting overworked to the point of larger injuries. Ironic, right? If Duplantier flops in the pros, I’m out on Rice pitchers forever.
18 – New York Yankees – Shenendehowa HS RHP Ian Anderson
Fans of twenty-nine other teams would not like this one bit. Ian Anderson, a dark-horse 1-1 candidate, has everything you’d want to see in a high school righthander with worlds of projection left. He also helps my pet theory that there’s an easy shortcut to amateur scouting: just follow the recruits. If a player is committed to Vanderbilt, like Ian Anderson is, move him up ___ spots on your board. Let the college teams do the hard work for you! Vanderbilt, Florida, UCLA, LSU…if a guy has a commitment to a school on that level, then you should want to draft him. I loved Anderson as much as anybody as he began to put his name on the national map, but once he had that Vandy commit in his back pocket he started looking better than ever.
19 – New York Mets – Henninger HS LHP Jeff Belge
Jeff Belge would help replenish the Mets pitching pipeline. That’s about all I’ve got. Belge got off to a fast start as a prospect relative to his peers thanks to his imposing size (6-6, 240) and present arm strength (85-92 FB, up to 94-95). Others have caught and exceeded him in this class, but he’s still a talented young lefty capable of using three offspeed pitches and blowing fastballs by the opposition.
20 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Stanford RHP Cal Quantrill
Plus fastball, plus change, plus pitchability, and flashes of two different breaking balls with upside. Get Cal Quantrill back on a mound and watch him fly up boards as we get closer to June. Sight unseen from last spring, I’d still consider taking him just outside the top ten picks or so.
21 – Toronto Blue Jays – York Mills Collegiate Institute C Andy Yerzy
Covering the entire country is one thing, but trying to develop solid contacts in Canada and Puerto Rico gives me that extra degree of difficulty that makes me want to bang my head against the wall at times. I do like what I know about Andy Yerzy and Austin Shields. Are they the top two Canadian prospects for 2016? Beats me. But they are my favorites for now.
22 – Pittsburgh Pirates – Plum HS OF Alex Kirilloff
Pittsburgh opts to stay close to home with the nod going to the local prep star over the local college star. Even with the successful recent return to health of the very talented TJ Zeuch, the potential plus all-around bat of Alex Kirilloff is too tempting to pass up on. Hey, it worked with the Neil Walker pick, so why not go to the Pittsburgh high school baseball well again in the first round? As a hitter, Kirilloff can really do it all: big raw power, plus bat speed, a mature approach, and a hit tool so promising that almost every scout has agreed that he’s an advanced hitter who happens to hit for power rather than the other way around. He’s the rare high school prospect who could hit enough to have confidence in him as a pro even if eventually confined to first base.
23 – St. Louis Cardinals – Missouri SS Ryan Howard
The Cardinals can only hope that I still have the patience to do these silly mocks next year. Instead of trying to decide on which prospect to reach on like this, they’d have the luxury of debating between Tanner Houck and Jake Burger. Because it’s 2016 and not 2017, however, Ryan Howard resembles the most sensible pick. I think he probably tops out as a quality utility infielder in the big leagues, but focusing on the “in the big leagues” part rather than the “utility infielder” aspect makes it worthwhile.
24 – San Diego Padres – San Diego SS Bryson Brigman
I’m not sure I have much more to add on Brigman at the moment than what I wrote recently about him…
Doing so would allow me to regularly see Bryson Brigman, a prospect that has begun to remind me a lot of Arizona’s Scott Kingery from last year’s draft. Kingery was a second round pick (48th overall) and I could see Brigman rising to a similar level by June. Like Kingery last year, Brigman’s defensive future remains a question for scouts. Fortunately for both, the question is framed more around trying him in challenging spots than worrying about having to hide him elsewhere on the diamond. Brigman has an above-average to plus defensive future at second back in his back pocket already, so his playing a solid shortstop in 2016 is doing so with house money. In much the same way that former second baseman Alex Bregman wore everybody down with consistent above-average play at short last college season, Brigman has proved to many that he has what it takes to stick at shortstop in pro ball. Brigman’s appeal at this point is pretty clear: tons of defensive potential in the middle infield, contact abilities that elicit the classic “he could find a hole rolling out of bed” remarks from onlookers, and enough of the sneaky pop/mature approach offensive extras needed to be an impactful regular in the big leagues. I’ll stick with the Kingery – who smart people told me here could play shortstop if needed, a position since corroborated by those who have seen him in the pros (I’ll be seeing him for myself on Saturday, FWIW) – comparison for now, but I wouldn’t object to somebody who offered up a mix of the best of both Kingery and his old double play partner Kevin Newman. That would obviously be some kind of special player, but Brigman doesn’t seem too far off. I’ve said before I hate when people throw around terms like “first round player” so loosely that you could count 100 first rounders in their eyes in the months leading up to June, but I’ll be guilty of it here and call Brigman a first round player as of now. I’ve really come to appreciate his game since the start of the season.
25 – San Diego Padres – Santa Barbara HS RHP Kevin Gowdy
I haven’t been able to sneak Kevin Gowdy on to one of these mocks just yet, so it’s great that he finally made the cut. It wasn’t easy, what with guys like Matt Manning, Reggie Lawson, Nick Lodolo, Corbin Burnes, and Lucas Erceg all vying for the second to last California spot, but he made it. Since we’re firmly in the quote yourself section of the mock by now, here’s me from the comments section earlier this week on Gowdy: “Love Gowdy. Command, deception, and frame are all really promising. Puts his fastball where he wants it better than most of his college-aged peers. Velocity is good and breaking ball looks legit. And on top of all that, his delivery is a thing of beauty to me. I normally leave mechanics alone — don’t care what it looks long as long as the pitcher can repeat it consistently — but Gowdy’s stand out as being particularly efficient. I’m a big fan. Likely a top five prep pitcher in this class.”
26 – Chicago White Sox – Carmel Catholic HS C Cooper Johnson
I do not know if Cooper Johnson will hit enough to be a viable big league player. I do know that he can defend the heck out of his position. I had him on a Russell Martin (high), Francisco Cervelli (medium), and Austin Hedges (low) spectrum after seeing him over the summer. We’re getting late enough in this draft that even the low outcome for him would give you enough value back. Gambling on a defensive weapon behind the plate figuring things out just enough as a hitter seems like a smart bet to me.
27 – Baltimore Orioles – Maryland RHP Mike Shawaryn
Many words were written about Mike Shawaryn in yesterday’s post, so I’ll refer any new readers to that first and foremost. If you recall, my conclusions about Shawaryn centered on the idea that he has the chance to be one of the draft’s best undervalued assets, assuming his 2016 funk is attributable more to fatigue than anything else. Draft him in the second or third round — late first is pushing it, but so go the rules of the mock — and give him all the time off he needs to feel 100% again. There are lots of health-based assumptions here that I really shouldn’t be making, but I figure the underlying point is that the real Shawaryn is still really good when rested and ready gives me a little bit of moral leeway. Anyway, please don’t let this happen in real life. Shawaryn, a man (maybe) in need of a team with an expert minor league medical staff, should be kept as far a way as possible from whatever it is that’s causing all of Baltimore’s pitching prospects to fall apart.
28 – Washington Nationals – Georgetown RHP David Ellingson
This really isn’t fair to the team in our nation’s capital, but they had the top pick in back-to-back years with a generational talent waiting for them AND somehow got to watch a bunch of teams let a pair of injured stars fall into their laps. It’s only right that they get some bad draft luck for a change. The player pool is all but limited to George Washington, Georgetown, and a very small group of high school players. David Ellingson could give them some middle relief help in a few years. That’s literally better than passing on the pick, right?
29 – Washington Nationals – Georgetown RHP Matt Smith
What’s really messed up about the Nationals being stuck only picking players from DC is how close (yet so far) they are to an absolute hotbed of baseball talent. How nice would Connor Jones look in this spot? Or any one of the good to great high school prospects found in Virginia this year? We’re talking Joe Rizzo, Khalil Lee, Zach Hess, Noah Murdock, Bobby Nicholson…the list goes on. Like his once and future teammate Ellingson, Matt Smith could be a nice middle reliever down the line. That’s good, too!
30 – Texas Rangers – Alamo Heights HS RHP Forrest Whitley
A big Texan with power stuff going to the Rangers. Narratives everywhere! Though I guess he had to be a Texan automatically because that’s the whole point of the draft. And he’s the best of an underwhelming crop from the state. You could argue Nick Banks here, but I’ll go with a pitcher over the hitter to change things up. Can you tell that we’re only a few picks away from the finish line?
31 – New York Mets – Buffalo RHP Mike Kaelin
The Mets have cleaned up in some of the other drafts we’ve done so far, so I don’t feel too bad with them being challenged in our geographical version of things. Thomas Hackimer would be an equally fine pick to Mike Kaelin, but I have too much of a soft spot for the undersized reliever from Buffalo to pass on him now.
32 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Steele Canyon HS OF Avery Tuck
With all the talent in California this year — I named names in the last San Diego pick — some might be surprised to see Avery Tuck emerge as the final pick from the Golden State. I’m an unabashed fan of upside, what can I say?
33 – St. Louis Cardinals – De Smet Jesuit HS LHP Erik Miller
Making the best of being limited only to the great state of Missouri, the Cards nab the state’s best high school prospect in Erik Miller. A three-pitch lefthander with enviable size (6-5, 220), present velocity (88-93), and deception in his delivery isn’t a bad way to spend a first round pick.
34 – St. Louis Cardinals – Missouri RHP Reggie McClain
The Cardinals would have to be so jealous of the Padres in a draft like this. Reggie McClain as a consolation prize isn’t the worst thing in the world. In fact, I like the redshirt-senior quite a bit as a late single-digit round senior-sign option. Easy to love his changeup, control, and athleticism. It’s just that Howard, Miller and McClain isn’t exactly Rutherford, Brigman, and Gowdy.
2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – MAC
Typically we start with the hitters because I’m an incredibly biased baseball fan and “writer” who grew up during the steroid era predisposed, right or wrong, to love offense. There’s no way we can do that with this year’s collection of MAC prospects. The top four pitchers in the conference – Eric Lauer, Nick Deeg, Zach Plesac, and Keegan Akin – are all fantastic draft prospects. The only difficulty here is picking a favorite.
Akin, the lefty with an above-average slider, deceptive delivery, and up-and-down control, might fit best in the bullpen over the long haul. Or maybe he’s the guy you view as having the highest ceiling thanks to a fastball that he can dial up to 95 when needed. Plesac has the obvious bloodlines working in his favor, but it’s his unusual athleticism and deep reservoir of offspeed pitches that make him a favorite of mine. He’s third on my list only because of a lost coin flip to Deeg, another lefthander with above-average velocity (86-92, 94 peak) and an average or better breaking ball (his curve took off this summer after firming up from a loopier 71-74 to an improved 79-81 bender). Deeg got the edge over fellow lefty Akin despite the latter’s better peripherals to date because of a more advanced change (a low-80s offering with average or better upside) and an interesting but as yet underdeveloped mid-80s cutter. His size advantage (6-5, 220 for Deeg, 6-1, 200 for Akin) certainly didn’t hurt either.
As much as I like all three of those pitchers, there’s still a decent-sized gap between Eric Lauer and the field. Lauer, the third lefthander in my MAC top four, combines the best of all of the prospects below him on the rankings. There isn’t a box that he doesn’t check when looking for a potentially quick-moving above-average mid-rotation big league starting pitcher. He’s an athletic (like Plesac) lefthander (like Deeg/Akin), with good size (like Deeg/Plesac), very strong performance indicators (10.78 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9), above-average heat (88-94) that he commands like a pro, and a complete assortment of offspeed pitches (74-77 CB, 78-82 SL, emerging CU) he can throw in any count. One could quibble by noting there’s no singular knockout pitch here – maybe with continued work one of his secondaries can become a consistent plus pitch, but certainly not presently – so maybe Lauer’s best case scenario outcome isn’t quite that of some of his peers across the country, but that’s a nitpick for a still impressive ceiling/high floor starting arm. Maybe you don’t love him – I kind of do, clearly…but maybe you don’t – but he’s still a prospect that’s hard not to at least like.
Lauer, Deeg, Plesac, and Akin are the four best prospects here, but they are far from the only prospects of note. I’m 100% ready to invest in all the Mike Kaelin stock I can afford. How can you not love a big fastball (up to 95) from a smaller righty (5-9, 185) who happens to be coming off a season where he whiffed 12.14 batters per nine? Beyond even those five, there are plenty of other pitching prospects worth knowing, especially those with advanced changeups. For whatever reason, the change seems like the pitch in the MAC this year. Nick Jensen-Clagg, Steven Calhoun (who also happens to be 6-7, 205 pounds), and Adam Aldred all throw really good ones. Sam Delaplane (94 peak and good SL, listed at 5-11, 175 pounds, and 10.80 K/9 last season) is a little bit like the Michigan version of Kaelin. I happen to like Sean Renzi and deep sleeper Kyle Slack as big men with some upside left to be unsheathed.
Despite the emphasis on pitching here, there are a handful of interesting MAC position players in need of more attention at the national level. Jarett Rindfleisch is a steady defender with a big arm, real power upside, and a decent approach at the plate. I’m not yet sure what exactly to make of Alex Borglin, but everything I know about him I like. He’s a great athlete who can run (but hasn’t done much of it yet), and flash some impressive leather at short. I’ve heard his arm could necessitate a move to second or possibly even center, so that’s something to watch. Mitch Longo has some “scouty” questions to answer this spring, but I’m sold on the bat. A little bit further down the list are names like Manny DeJesus (two plus tools in his CF range and speed, not to mention an ideal leadoff approach), Deion Tansel (handles the bat well and makes all the plays at short), and Zach McKinstry (draft-eligible sophomore with an advanced hit tool, ample speed, and impressive defensive gifts) , each intriguing in his own right.
Hitters
- Ball State JR C Jarett Rindfleisch
- Central Michigan JR SS Alex Borglin
- Ohio JR OF Mitch Longo
- Miami (Ohio) SR 3B/OF Chad Sedio
- Ball State JR OF Alex Call
- Ohio SR OF Manny DeJesus
- Toledo SR SS/2B Deion Tansel
- Northern Illinois SR SS Brian Sisler
- Central Michigan SO SS Zach McKinstry
- Eastern Michigan JR 1B John Montgomery
- Central Michigan SR OF Logan Regnier
- Western Michigan JR 3B Grant Miller
- Miami (Ohio) JR 2B Steve Sada
- Miami (Ohio) rJR 3B Adam Yacek
- Ball State SR 2B Ryan Spaulding
- Miami (Ohio) SR OF Jake Romano
- Eastern Michigan rJR C/OF Michael Mioduszewski
- Eastern Michigan rJR SS/OF Marquise Gill
- Kent State SR 1B/3B Zarley Zalewski
- Kent State JR 1B/OF Conner Simonetti
- Central Michigan rSR SS Joe Houlihan
- Buffalo SR SS Bobby Sheppard
- Ohio rSR C Cody Gaertner
- Buffalo rSO 2B Ben Haefner
- Ohio SR 1B John Adryan
- Ball State JR 1B/C Caleb Stayton
- Northern Illinois SR C Johnny Zubek
- Eastern Michigan SR 1B/3B Mitchell McGeein
- Toledo rSR OF/SS Dan Zuchowski
- Ball State JR SS/RHP Alex Maloney
- Central Michigan SR 1B Zack Fields
Pitchers
- Kent State JR LHP Eric Lauer
- Central Michigan JR LHP Nick Deeg
- Ball State JR RHP Zach Plesac
- Western Michigan JR LHP Keegan Akin
- Buffalo rJR RHP Mike Kaelin
- Kent State JR RHP Andy Ravel
- Kent State SR RHP Nick Jensen-Clagg
- Eastern Michigan JR RHP Sam Delaplane
- Toledo JR LHP Steven Calhoun
- Miami (Ohio) rJR LHP Ryan Marske
- Central Michigan SR LHP Adam Aldred
- Western Michigan SR RHP Gabe Berman
- Central Michigan SR RHP Sean Renzi
- Bowling Green rJR LHP Andrew Lacinak
- Central Michigan JR RHP Jordan Grosjean
- Miami (Ohio) JR RHP Jacob Banks
- Ohio JR RHP Jake Rudnicki
- Toledo SR RHP Kyle Slack
- Western Michigan SR LHP Derek Schneider
- Ball State JR RHP BJ Butler
- Buffalo JR RHP Alec Tuohy
- Northern Illinois JR RHP Andrew Frankenreider
- Buffalo JR RHP Brent Cleland
- Eastern Michigan JR RHP Kevin Shul
- Ohio SR RHP Jake Miller
Ball State
JR RHP Zach Plesac (2016)
JR RHP BJ Butler (2016)
rJR LHP Kevin Marnon (2016)
JR SS/RHP Alex Maloney (2016)
JR C Jarett Rindfleisch (2016)
JR OF Alex Call (2016)
SR 2B Ryan Spaulding (2016)
JR 3B Sean Kennedy (2016)
JR 1B/C Caleb Stayton (2016)
SR OF Scott Tyler (2016)
JR OF Matt Eppers (2016)
SO RHP/3B Colin Brockhouse (2017)
SO RHP Brendan Burns (2017)
SO LHP Trevor Henderson (2017)
High Priority Follows: Zach Plesac, BJ Butler, Alex Maloney, Jarett Rindfleisch, Alex Call, Ryan Spaulding, Sean Kennedy, Caleb Stayton, Matt Eppers
Bowling Green
rJR LHP Andrew Lacinak (2016)
SR RHP Devin Daugherty (2016)
SR OF Matt Smith (2016)
SR OF Kory Brown (2016)
rJR C Tyler Greiner (2016)
rJR 3B/1B Nick Glanzman (2016)
SO RHP Zac Carey (2017)
SO LHP Kody Brown (2017)
SO 3B/RHP Cody Callaway (2017)
SO 1B Randy Righter (2017)
FR OF Blake Jenkins (2018)
FR 1B/OF Logan Giddings (2018)
FR 3B/OF Cameron Daugherty (2018)
FR RHP Matt Szabo (2018)
FR RHP Chase Antle (2018)
FR RHP Brad Croy (2018)
High Priority Follows: Andrew Lacinak, Matt Smith
Buffalo
rJR RHP Mike Kaelin (2016)
SR LHP Ben Hartz (2016)
JR RHP Brent Cleland (2016)
JR RHP Alec Tuohy (2016)
SR SS Bobby Sheppard (2016)
JR 3B Chris Kwitzer (2016)
JR OF Vinny Mallaro (2016)
SR OF Mike Abrunzo (2016)
rSO 2B Ben Haefner (2016)
SO 1B Charlie Sobieraski (2017)
SO INF Ben Vey (2017)
High Priority Follows: Mike Kaelin, Ben Hartz, Brent Cleland, Alec Tuohy, Bobby Sheppard, Ben Haefner
Central Michigan
JR LHP Nick Deeg (2016)
SR LHP Josh Pierce (2016)
SR RHP Connor Kelly (2016)
SR LHP Adam Aldred (2016)
SR LHP Jimmy McNamara (2016)
SR RHP Sean Renzi (2016)
SR RHP Jason Gamble (2016)
JR RHP Jordan Grosjean (2016)
rSR SS Joe Houlihan (2016)
SR OF Logan Regnier (2016)
SR 1B Zack Fields (2016)
SR C Dylan Goodwin (2016)
rJR OF Adam Colllins (2016)
JR SS Alex Borglin (2016)
SO SS Zach McKinstry (2016)
JR C Robert Greenman (2016)
SR INF Morgan Oliver (2016)
rFR RHP Patrick Leatherman (2017)
SO RHP Sean Martens (2017)
SO OF/1B Daniel Jipping (2017)
rFR OF/C Dazon Cole (2017)
FR LHP Grant Wolfram (2018)
FR OF Daniel Robinson (2018)
FR RHP Michael Brettell (2018)
FR C Evan Kratt (2018)
FR INF Jarrod Watkins (2018)
FR INF Jason Sullivan (2018)
High Priority Follows: Nick Deeg, Connor Kelly, Adam Aldred, Sean Renzi, Jordan Grosjean, Joe Houlihan, Logan Regnier, Zack Fields, Alex Borglin, Zach McKinstry, Robert Greenman, Morgan Oliver
Eastern Michigan
SR LHP Devon Bronson (2016)
SR LHP Michael Marsinek (2016)
JR RHP Sam Delaplane (2016)
JR RHP Matthew Beaton (2016)
JR RHP Kevin Shul (2016)
SR 1B/3B Mitchell McGeein (2016)
SR RHP Nick Jensen-Clagg (2016)
rSO RHP Zach Spangler (2016)
rSR RHP Eli Martin (2016)
rSR LHP Tim Faix (2016)
JR LHP Jared Skolnicki (2016)
SR 1B/3B Zarley Zalewski (2016)
JR 2B Dom Iero (2016)
JR 1B/OF Conner Simonetti (2016)
rJR C/OF Michael Mioduszewski (2016)
JR C/OF Jeremy Stidham (2016)
rJR SS/OF Marquise Gill (2016)
SR OF Jordan Peterson (2016)
JR 1B John Montgomery (2016)
SR OF Jackson Martin (2016)
SO RHP Brent Mattson (2017)
SO RHP Antonio Jacobs (2017)
SO OF Brennan Williams (2017)
FR LHP Tyler Butzin (2018)
High Priority Follows: Sam Delaplane, Matthew Beaton, Kevin Shul, Mitchell McGeein, Michael Mioduszewski, Marquise Gill, Jordan Peterson, John Montgomery
Kent State
JR LHP Eric Lauer (2016)
JR RHP Andy Ravel (2016)
SR RHP Nick Jensen-Clagg (2016)
rSO RHP Zach Spangler (2016)
rSR RHP Eli Martin (2016)
rSR LHP Tim Faix (2016)
JR LHP Jared Skolnicki (2016)
SR 1B/3B Zarley Zalewski (2016)
JR 2B Dom Iero (2016)
JR 1B/OF Conner Simonetti (2016)
rSR OF Alex Miklos (2016)
JR 2B/SS Sam Hurt (2016)
rJR OF Luke Burch (2016)
JR 2B/SS Zach Beckner (2016)
rSR OF Jacob Neuschaefer (2016)
SO RHP Zach Willeman (2017)
SO RHP Chris Martin (2017)
SO LHP Eli Kraus (2017)
SO 3B Dylan Rosa (2017)
FR C Peter Schuler (2018)
FR SS Josh Hollander (2018)
FR LHP Connor Wollersheim (2018)
FR RHP Joey Murray (2018)
FR RHP Austin Havekost (2018)
High Priority Follows: Eric Lauer, Andy Ravel, Nick Jensen-Clagg, Jared Skolnicki, Zarley Zalewski, Conner Simonetti, Luke Burch
Miami (Ohio)
rJR LHP Ryan Marske (2016)
JR RHP Brad Schwartz (2016)
JR RHP Jacob Banks (2016)
SR 3B/OF Chad Sedio (2016)
SR OF Jake Romano (2016)
SR OF Gary Russo (2016)
rJR 3B Adam Yacek (2016)
JR 2B Steve Sada (2016)
rSO C Spencer Dull (2016)
SO RHP Gus Graham (2017)
FR LHP Zach Spears (2018)
FR RHP Cole Gnetz (2018)
FR RHP Michael Hendricks (2018)
FR C Hayden Senger (2018)
FR OF Dallas Hall (2018)
High Priority Follows: Ryan Marske, Jacob Banks, Chad Sedio, Jake Romano, Adam Yacek, Steve Sada, Spencer Dull
Northern Illinois
JR RHP Andrew Frankenreider (2016)
rJR LHP Jordan Ruckman (2016)
SR LHP Ryan Olson (2016)
SR SS Brian Sisler (2016)
SR OF Stephen Letz (2016)
rSR C Tony Brandner (2016)
SR C Johnny Zubek (2016)
rSR OF Alex Smith (2016)
rJR OF Brandon Mallder (2016)
rJR 3B/OF Tommy Hook (2016)
SR 2B Justin Fletcher (2016)
SO RHP Donovin Sims (2017)
SO SS/2B Brad Wood (2017)
FR 3B Joseph Boyle (2017)
FR OF Malique Ziegler (2017)
High Priority Follows: Andrew Frankenreider, Brian Sisler, Stephen Letz, Tony Brandner
Ohio
SR RHP Jake Miller (2016)
rSO RHP Jake Roehn (2016)
JR RHP Jake Rudnicki (2016)
rSO LHP Gerry Salisbury (2016)
SR RHP Connor Sitz (2016)
JR RHP Tom Colletti (2016)
SR OF Manny DeJesus (2016)
JR OF Mitch Longo (2016)
rSR C Cody Gaertner (2016)
SR 1B John Adryan (2016)
rJR OF Nate Squires (2016)
JR 3B Ty Black (2016)
FR 1B Rudy Rott (2018)
High Priority Follows: Jake Miller, Jake Rudnicki, Tom Colletti, Manny DeJesus, Mitch Longo, Cody Gaertner, John Adryan
Toledo
SR RHP Kyle Slack (2016)
SR RHP Caleb Schillace (2016)
JR RHP Sam Shutes (2016)
JR LHP Steven Calhoun (2016)
SR LHP Ross Achter (2016)
SR RHP/OF John Martillotta (2016)
JR RHP/OF Jordan Kesson (2016)
SR SS/2B Deion Tansel (2016)
rSR OF/SS Dan Zuchowski (2016)
SR OF Ryan Callahan (2016)
JR OF Jake Krupar (2016)
SO OF AJ Montoya (2017)
SO C/1B Dalton Bollinger (2017)
High Priority Follows: Kyle Slack, Steven Calhoun, Ross Achter, Jordan Kesson, Deion Tansel, Dan Zuchowski
Western Michigan
JR LHP Keegan Akin (2016)
SR LHP Derek Schneider (2016)
SR RHP Pat Haynes (2016)
SR RHP Gabe Berman (2016)
JR 3B Grant Miller (2016)
JR SS Steve Pastora (2016)
SR C Mitchell Ho (2016)
SO LHP Jacob Piechota (2017)
SO LHP/OF Tanner Allison (2017)
FR OF Nate Grys (2018)
FR INF Connor Smith (2018)
High Priority Follows: Keegan Akin, Derek Schneider, Gabe Berman, Grant Miller