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2016 MLB Draft Reviews – San Francisco Giants

Top 500 Prospects Drafted by San Francisco in 2016

39 – Bryan Reynolds
96 – Heath Quinn
103 – Garrett Williams
191 – Nick Deeg
198 – Ryan Howard
208 – Matt Krook
319 – Gio Brusa
336 – Stephen Woods
344 – Jacob Heyward
348 – Jose Layer

Complete List of 2016 San Francisco Draftees

2.59 – OF Brian Reynolds

Draft season comparison between Bryan Reynolds (39) and another famous Vanderbilt product…

.330/.461/.603 – 49 BB/58 K – 8/13 SB – 224 AB
.335/.423/.623 – 43 BB/54 K – 16/18 SB – 281 AB

That would be none other than 2015 first overall selection and 2017 Atlanta Braves starting shortstop Dansby Swanson at the bottom there. Is Reynolds the outfield version of Swanson? Let’s look at some career college numbers…

.329/.413/.508 – 103 BB/174 K – 39/52 SB – 791 AB
.330/.418/.541 – 84 BB/108 K – 39/47 SB – 579 AB

Not a terrible statistical comp, right? There’s clearly a little more swing-and-miss going on with Reynolds and the difference between shortstop and Reynolds’s likely corner outfield landing spot is no small thing, but there’s enough there to make this a conversation worth having. If you buy that the two have similar offensive ceilings, then the Giants getting Reynolds in the second round has to qualify as one of the draft’s easiest to identify sleepers. From October 2015…

Reynolds also reminds me somewhat of Kyle Lewis in the way that both guys have rapidly improved their plate discipline in ways that haven’t yet shown up consistently on the stat sheet. If or when it does, Reynolds could join Lewis as a potential future impact big league outfielder.

Reynolds didn’t quite have that same kind of junior year breakout, but the general point that both players received similar “he has a better approach that shows up in the box score” praise from scouts who saw them day in, day out. I thought that this sentiment would quiet down once pro scouts got their first looks at him, but I heard more of the same throughout the summer. That’s the bullish view on Reynolds: he’s good now as a hitter, but he has it in him to take it up a whole other notch once something in his approach clicks. The less optimistic but still plenty exciting view was laid out back in April 2016…

Bryan Reynolds’s physical tools are all at least average, though there are none that I’d hang a plus on without some serious cajoling first. If we compare him to the guy directly behind him in the rankings, Buddy Reed, he’ll lose any athletic head-to-head battle. Furthermore, his defense in center is a bit of a long-term concern for me, but smarter people than I have said he’s actually better – more instinctual, quicker reads, just more natural all-around – in center than he is in a corner. I haven’t seen enough of him to say either way, but it’s an interesting view to consider. Thankfully, despite those concerns, the man can flat hit. Speed, defense, and arm strength are all important, but the bat will forever be king.

Reynolds’s numbers – again, the ones on the bottom in the two comparisons above – are undeniably excellent. One of the few concerns I have about the Vanderbilt slugger is his propensity to end long at bats with short walks back to the dugout. Strikeouts at the big league level don’t bother me in the least, but they mean something more at the amateur and minor league level. Some of this concern is mitigated by Reynolds’s high walk totals, but the high strikeout/high walk college hitter archetype is one that has seen mixed result at the pro level in recent years. It’s also one that I still don’t know what to do with as an evaluator.

Reynolds looks like one of those hitters who can pile up both walks and strikeouts while also making a ton of good contact and hitting for average or better power. You know what we call guys like that? Well when they can also run, throw, and defend average or better, we tend to call them potential big league all-stars. As a ceiling, that’s exactly what you want out of your first pick. What makes Reynolds even more appealing is his high floor. When I think of high floor players, I think of guys who have clear baseball skills that are desirable to all thirty big league teams. The ability to play all three outfield spots is a clear baseball skill that is desirable to all thirty big league teams. The ability to switch-hit is a clear baseball skills that is desirable to all thirty big league teams. A track record of hammering righthanded pitching when hitting lefty is a clear baseball skill that is desirable to all thirty big league teams. You get the idea. As was written in June, Reynolds “looks like a long time future regular with a chance for flashes of greatness;” if he falls short of that, however, a career as an ace bench bat who wears out righthanded pitching and fourth outfielder who won’t hurt you in spot-duty in center is a fine backup option.

I still can’t believe Reynolds fell this far.

3.95 – OF Heath Quinn

College outfielders ranked ahead of Heath Quinn (96) by me in the 2016 MLB Draft: Lewis, Ray, Fisher, Reynolds, Fraley, Woodman, Grier, Thompson-Williams, Reed, Dawson. College outfielders selected ahead of Heath Quinn in the 2016 MLB Draft: Ray, Lewis, Grier, Reed, Boldt, Woodman, Reynolds, Dawson, Fraley, Call, Hays. I have no deeper point here. Never like to miss an opportunity to highlight this past draft’s crazy outfield depth, though. I stand by my rankings six months later (obviously) and don’t see a name in the second list that was drafted — maybe Boldt, but that’s stretching it some — ahead of Quinn that looks egregious in hindsight. That said, Quinn is an outstanding prospect who had a stellar debut in professional ball. I hope he starts his first full season in 2017 at the same level (A+) he ended 2016. On Quinn from October 2015…

Just what this class needed: another outfielder loaded with tools that comes with some question marks about the utility of his big-time power because he’s still learning how to hit against serious pitching.

Like Reynolds, Quinn’s approach took a step forward in 2016. It may not have been a Kyle Lewis size step, but progress is progress. Quinn improved his approach, upped his power output, and continued to show a well-rounded physical tool set that includes above-average speed underway, an above-average arm, and average or better range in a corner. A prospect who you can confidently project to giving you quality defense, positive value on the base paths, and potential above-average offensive contributions is just about all you can ask for; if Quinn can do all of those things, he has similar upside (“long time future regular with a chance for flashes of greatness”) to Reynolds. I’m bullish on both reaching that level. San Francisco did really well with these first two selections.

Of course, that’s the optimistic view. What happens if both players struggle with high-level pitching? One thing I particularly like about these first two picks is the high floor that I believe comes with them. The absolute worst case scenario for the Giants with their first two picks (barring major injury, naturally) could result in backing into a potentially dominant corner outfield platoon. The switch-hitting Reynolds has a history of killing righthanders while the righthanded hitting Quinn mauls lefthanders. I think the Giants got long-term future left and right fielders (really good ones at that), but even a hater of these picks would have to admit that the possibility of a timeshare between the two would be scary. Maybe using two picks to get one combined corner outfielder is a less than ideal outcome, but if you take a look at the actual success rate of picks past the first round in the draft then you’d take this “worst case scenario” every single time if it comes to it.

4.125 – LHP Matt Krook

The first night of the draft is a bit of a pain, what with the made-for-TV element slowing everything down. I won’t really complain about it too much because that kind of exposure is a really good thing for growing the draft beyond the niche audience that already exists, but, even as an apparently rare soul who enjoys MLB Network’s presentation (more or less) of the event, the first night drags. Day two is fantastic; this year I was able to speed home from work listening to the selections go by on the MLB At Bat app and then settle in with the computer for the rest of the late-afternoon’s selections. Day three is also a ton of fun, but the timing of this past year’s draft killed me. Instead of being at the home base with every electronic device available locked into tracking the draft, I was making the six hour trek to beautiful Cleveland, Ohio. It was tons of fun. You work all year towards a three-day event and you get to spend 75% away from a computer. Fantastic.

Long story short, even as I was driving 80ish MPH west on 76 (or 80, who can remember) it was easy to put together that the Giants were getting weird with their draft. Look at four of the five college pitchers taken by San Francisco in the top ten rounds…

Matt Krook: 6.18 BB/9
Garrett Williams: 7.52 BB/9
Stephen Woods: 7.01 BB/9
Alex Bostic: 8.10 BB/9

Those are college career walk rates. I started by doing just 2016 numbers, but so many of these guys pitched so infrequently in 2016 BECAUSE OF THEIR TERRIBLE CONTROL that using the larger sample felt like a fairer representation of their true abilities. I assumed the walk rates would go down some, but…nope. The Giants also took Reagan Bazar (5.71 BB/9), one of the mid-round poster boys for “big stuff, little control” in the seventeenth. If that’s not a pattern, then I give up. The next logical question is a simple one: why? The Giants clearly prioritized stuff over control in this draft. Do they think they have an organizational-wide coaching magic formula that can fix any young pitcher with control woes? Did they see something specific in each individual pitcher they selected that can turn each respective hurler’s control around? Do they simply not care about control as much as the rest of baseball? Or was this just a simple case of a good team realizing that picking in the late first round every year (or not even that depending on free agency) has limited their opportunities picking pitchers with “big stuff,” so they just went for it when they could with the idea that they’d figure out the “little control” stuff later?

I have no definitive answers. I do know that I’m a little surprised I didn’t give Matt Krook (208) the “first round stuff, tenth round command/control” tag prior to the draft. Here’s a little on Krook from April 2016…

And then there’s Matt Krook! I had him second only to Alec Hansen (whoops) in my overall college pitching rankings before the season and now he’s third in his own conference. You could look at that as me being wishy-washy (not really, but maybe), me not knowing what I was doing in the first place (always a possibility), or this year’s draft class being more talented than some would like you to believe (yes). Whatever the case may be, Krook remains a legitimate first round arm with as much upside as any college pitcher throwing. Here was the pre-season take that accompanied the aforementioned ranking…

This may be a touch more speculative that some of the other names on the list since Krook missed the 2015 season after Tommy John surgery, but I’m buying all the Krook shares I can right now. He came back and impressed on the Cape enough to warrant consideration as a potential 1-1 riser. There’s no squaring up his fastball and there’s more than enough offspeed (CB and CU) to miss bats (12 K/9 in 45 freshman innings). He’s not as physical as AJ Puk, but the more advanced secondaries give him the edge for now.

I stand by that today. His fastball velocity isn’t all the way back yet (more of a steady 88-92 than 90-94), but he still gets incredible movement on the pitch. His curve has morphed into something more like a slider (or something in-between), but remains a true plus offering. Both his command and his control remain works in progress as he pitches himself back into competitive shape. Picking Krook as early as I’d recommend would take a bit of a leap of faith in his command/control woes being remedied largely by the increased passage of time separating him from his surgery. Going Krook would not be for the faint of heart, but, hey, nothing venture nothing gained, right?

Needless to say, I’m on board with this pick. It’s scary, true, but sometimes moving away from what’s safe is what a franchise in need of another wave of high-impact talent needs. I’ll say something irresponsible about Krook that I honestly believe to be true: no amateur player I’ve ever seen pitch has had the kind of consistent natural and unnatural movement on his pitches as Krook. I think once pro scouts begin getting eyes on him and we start to see some internet chatter about him people will begin to realize that Krook is a rare bird. Everything he throws moves like crazy. His fastball, though still not completely back to its pre-injury velocity peaks, is an easy plus pitch even with spotty command. His slider and his curve run together at 78-84 MPH, but it doesn’t really matter what the pitch is called because it’s another offering that flashes plus more often than not. I even like his steadily improving mid-80s diving changeup more than most. Most guys simply don’t have the ability to throw three to four pitches (depending on if you want to give him credit it for an extra breaking ball or just call the pitch a curve) that dance like Krook’s fastball, breaking ball(s), and changeup do. If James Brown was a pitcher, he’d be Matt Krook. It’s special stuff, really. It’s hard to draw a straight line between stuff and stats at the minor league level, but check this out: 91 of the 118 balls in play against Krook this year were on the ground. That’s good for a 76.5% GB rate. If that doesn’t speak to Krook’s ability to get plus movement on damn near everything he throws, I’m not sure what else will. Plus fastball, plus breaking ball(s), and an average yet ascending change? That’s the kind of stuff only aces and $80 million closers possess.

Of course, without even a baseline amount of control the whole thing falls apart. A future without ever reaching the big leagues has to be in play for a college pitcher coming off a draft season where he walked 8.23 batters per nine. Krook is no sure thing, clearly. An honest worst case scenario is never getting his control woes figured out and topping out in AA. A more optimistic worst case would be following the up-and-down career arcs of guys like Jonathan Sanchez and Dontrelle Willis; bullpen, rotation, great years, not so great years, and everything in-between. Those two outcomes represent fair middle-tier paths for Krook if he can remain a starter with well below-average control. Just getting that control to slightly below-average would go a long way to putting Krook on the road to a future as a potential front line starting pitcher. I’ve mentioned more than once that I think Krook has the stuff to project as an ace or a star closer (Zach Britton 2.0?) if the rest of his game comes together. Names that fall just short of being called aces like Francisco Liriano and Matt Moore (but with ground balls) show that pitchers with wild backgrounds can make it. That’s probably where I’d place my bet now that I’ve had time to reflect: flashes of ace-like dominance with occasionally frustrating bouts of wildness that leave you with a pitcher who has defied the odds in a great way yet still disappointed just a touch at the same time.

5.155 – SS Ryan Howard

On Ryan Howard (198) from April 2016…

Ryan Howard is a nice prospect, but not the kind of guy who would crack the top five at short in a major college conference in most years. He does most everything fairly well – solid hitter, average raw power, dependable at short – but nothing so well that you’re pumped to call his name on draft day. Part of my reticence in buying in to Howard comes from what may be a silly place. There is far more to the position than speed, but Howard’s below-average foot speed has always struck me as a potential red flag when assessing his long-term defensive outlook. Maybe that’s being lazy by haphazardly using speed as a proxy for athleticism, but the solid yet unsexy profile that I seem to like at other positions doesn’t grab me the same way at shortstop.

Eight months later and I still feel a little bad about that. I guess I didn’t come right out and say it, but the implication there was that Howard, as a prospect, bored me. Still kind of does. He’s pretty good (arm, approach, instincts) to just all right (power, range, speed) across the board. That gives him a good chance of making it as a quality utility player — fair value in the fifth round if that’s indeed the outcome, by the way — but little shot at much more. I’ve used the comp a few times already over the years (most directly on Mikey White), but Howard could have a career similar to a player he shares a lot of common traits with in Jordy Mercer.

6.185 – OF Gio Brusa

On Gio Brusa (319) from March 2016…

Remember when Gio Brusa was a thing? This was his report from last year…

The appreciation for Brusa, however, is right on point. His above-average to plus raw power will keep him employed for a long time, especially combined with his elite athleticism and playable defensive tools (slightly below-average arm and foot speed, but overall should be fine in left field). Brusa going from good prospect to great prospect will take selling a team on his improved approach as a hitter; early returns are promising but a team that buys into his bat will do so knowing he’ll always be a player who swings and misses a lot. Whether or not he a) makes enough contact, and/or b) demonstrates enough plate discipline (strikeouts are easier to take when paired with an increased walk rate, like he’s shown so far this year) will ultimately decide his fate as a hitter and prospect. Before the season I would have been in the “think he’ll be drafted too high for my tastes, so let me just kick back and watch somebody else try to fix his approach” camp in terms of his draft value, but I’m slowly creeping towards “if he falls just a bit, I’d think about taking a shot on his upside over a few players with more certainty and less ceiling” territory. That’s a big step up for me, even if it doesn’t quite seem like it.

Almost exactly one year to the day, I can say that’s pretty much where I remain on Brusa as a prospect. There’s still upside in a player like him because his natural gifts are obvious – maybe all it will take is the right voice in his ear in pro ball – but the increasingly large sample of below-average plate discipline is getting harder and harder to ignore. I tried my best to do so last year when spinning his early season successes as a potential step in the right direction, but reading between the lines above should reveal what I really thought. Avoiding the urge to flat out say “I just don’t like this prospect” has cost me some credibility among some small pockets of the baseball world in the past, but I sleep a lot better knowing I skew positive publicly on this site. When it comes to writing about young men chasing their dreams in a game we all love, why wouldn’t you make the attempt to be positive if at all possible? Positive doesn’t mean ranking every player in a tie for best prospect, of course. Brusa finished last season as my 144th ranked draft prospect. For a variety of reasons, some because of baseball but most not (i.e., signability past a certain point), he fell to pick 701. I think his ranking this year could split the difference between the two spots…but with a slight edge to being closer to 144 than 701. Have to stay positive, after all.

Pick 422.5 splits the difference between 144 and 701. He wound up going at pick 185 after I ranked him 319th overall. Not sure what it all means, but there you go.

Despite dropping Brusa down the final draft board, I remain intrigued about how his physical abilities will translate to pro ball. From the scouting notes featured on this site back in his high school days…

OF Giovanni Brusa (St. Mary’s HS, California): above-average arm; above-average speed; great athlete; big power upside; raw hit tool; could be league average defender in RF; 6-3, 200 pounds

Sounds about right. Brusa’s power and athleticism are carrying tools that should give him enough chances to buy time while he figures out some of the more skill-based aspects of the game (“raw hit tool” remains relevant here). Interesting to note that he’s a switch-hitter who performed significantly better as a lefthanded hitter in his pro debut. Bryan Reynolds did similar things in his debut. Maybe we can upgrade the “worst case scenario” for those first two picks to include this one: Reynolds in one corner and Brusa/Quinn in the other. Feels a little rich to me — Brusa’s floor is minor league slugger who can’t figure out upper-level breaking balls enough to be counted on for anything but up-and-down duty — but it could happen.

7.215 – LHP Garrett Williams

I have no idea what to make of Garrett Williams (103). Or maybe I do. I don’t know what I don’t know at this point. The short version: above-average fastball (88-94), above-average curve (76-83) that flashes plus to plus-plus, intriguing hard changeup (85-90) that can get too firm for his own good, usable low-80s slider, and no idea where any of them are going. What do you do with a pitching prospect like that? There’s clearly enough there in raw stuff to thrive as a starting pitcher, but we all can agree it takes more than raw stuff to start. Williams’s control is a problem at present. I’d guess the only group that has a firm enough grasp on how correctable his control problems are would be those counted among the player development staff tasked to fix it. The only thing I know for sure here is taking a chance on an arm like this with mid-rotation or late-game reliever upside in the seventh round is worth the downside of getting nothing every single time.

8.245 – RHP Stephen Woods

I feel bad for quoting my past self so often, but these college pitchers are all the same. The same but different, I suppose. There are only so many ways to write “great stuff, not so great control” before thoughts of giving this all up and starting a mozzarella stick review website instead start creeping in. On Stephen Woods (336) from March 2016…

Right off the top, I’m fairly comfortable declaring that Stephen Woods is the most talented 2016 MLB Draft prospect in the America East. That may or may not be enough to make him the best prospect, but it certainly puts him in the mix. Woods has a big-time arm (95-96 peak) with an intriguing curve and an unusually firm yet effective changeup. All of that was enough to make him a sixth round pick out of high school. His biggest issue has always been control: he walked 9.9 batters per nine his freshman year, 7.0 batters per nine last year, and sits at 6.1 in the early going this season. Any team drafting Woods with a single-digit round pick will have to weigh his raw stuff against his wild ways. Look at his early 2016 line: 13.1 IP 16 H 11 ER 9 BB 25 K. What in the world do we make of that? Really good stuff + elite ability to miss bats + well below-average control + inconsistent (at best) track record of run prevention = I have no idea and I’m glad I’m not paid to make a definitive statement about his draft future. A selection anywhere from as high as round five to as low as the twenties wouldn’t surprise me at this point. When it doubt it never hurts to gamble on arm strength guys with pedigree like Woods, but know that his eventual pro future will be dictated far more on development than an accurate scouting report.

Huge arm, little control, and a chance for one of his offspeed pitches (hard curve, mid-80s change, and up-and-down cut-slider) to develop enough to make him a late-inning relief option. You take that all day in the eighth round. Based on little more than a hunch (which, in turn, is based off of doing this draft thing for years), I’m particularly bullish about Woods figuring things out in the pros.

9.275 – LHP Caleb Baragar

The one early-ish San Francisco draft pick that breaks that big stuff/little control mold is Caleb Baragar from Indiana. Baragar doesn’t wow you with stuff — he’s fastball, fastball, and fastball (88-92, mostly) with the occasional quality hybrid-breaking ball mixed in — but he pounds the strike zone and keeps the ball down. The Giants have had more look with players like this than they have had with the big stuff/little control types, so Baragar making it as something more than the middle relief matchup lefthander ceiling I’d put on him wouldn’t surprise me much. I mean, they did draft him in an even year, right? Has to count for something…

10.305 – LHP Alex Bostic

Fastball at 90-94 MPH. Above-average 78-83 MPH slider. Have seen a mid-70s curve and heard about a decent change. His control? Sit down for this one because you’re going to be shocked to hear that it’s not great. That’s Alex Bostic in fifty words or less.

12.365 – 1B Ryan Kirby

I’m not sure Ryan Kirby would have been my first choice when looking for a bat-first college prospect just outside of the top ten rounds, but I get what San Francisco was thinking here. Kirby has always flashed more power than he’s shown in-game — the HS notes on Kirby from this very site call his raw power “big” — so the potential for more than what we’ve seen makes him a fine developmental lottery ticket.

13.395 – OF Jose Layer

I like Jose Layer (348) just about as much as I do any other prep position player at this point in the draft. Nothing about him stands out per se, but I don’t think anybody would be shocked if he winds up as one of the better mid-tier high school outfielders from this class. Once you get past the first three rounds or so, personal preference takes over in an even more profound manner than with those first few thoroughly vetted and frequently cross-checked selections. Layer is a clear plus runner with potential standout ability in center field. That alone gives him some nice athleticism-based value that should prop up his career if his hitting lags behind. His small sample (61 PA) debut is a hopeful step in that not being a necessary fallback plan.

14.425 – LHP Conner Menez

On principle, It don’t enjoy seeing a team using two of its first nineteen selections on teammates from a semi-local (The Master’s College is in California, so, hey, it’s local…but California is a really big state, so semi-local it is) NAIA school. I’ve tried to explain my reasoning for this over the course of these draft reviews — seriously, just click any review and you’re almost certain to find me going into far greater deal about this silliness — so I’ll stick to the very short version here: it’s lazy. I’ve actually moved past the point of being annoyed at pro teams for doubling or tripling up at one school and am now focused on the know-it-alls of the sports media world who hide behind the idea that pro teams 100% absolutely beyond a shadow of a doubt always know better than us fans. Pro teams do by and large know more than us, but at the end of the day they are working with finite resources, too. They don’t know everything. The only thing worse than those know-it-alls are the know-it-all draft guys who think they somehow have a better grasp on what teams should be doing on draft day than the teams themselves. Hey, wait a second…

So I shouldn’t like the Conner Menez pick, but, damn, I can’t help it. He’s a keeper. An excellent pro debut that included a whopping 27.1 IP at High-A (!) certainly helps his case. More importantly, it’s his stuff from the left side (low-90s heat, advanced change, solid slider) that make him so appealing. Great find by the Giants in the fourteenth round. Feels a little Cardinals-y to me.

15.455 – RHP DJ Myers

My notes on DJ Myers while at UNLV: “big guy, consistently solid peripherals.” He then went out and had one of the absolute best debuts of any pitcher in the 2016 MLB Draft class: 8.02 K/9, 0.77 BB/9, 1.70 ERA, 58.1 IP. He even got a successful one inning cameo in AAA at the end of the season. Not bad at all.

16.485 – LHP Chris Falwell

Size seems to be a common theme I’m picking up with San Francisco’s mid-round run of college pitchers. Chris Falwell fits that mold at 6-7, 210 pounds. He uses that size to get above-average extension and help his solid fastball (87-92) play up. Add in a quality curve and strong junior year results (9.14 K/9 and 3.01 BB/9), and you’ve got yourself a darn fine sixteenth round pick.

17.515 – RHP Reagan Bazar

I have always liked Reagan Bazar a little too much for my own good. Big guys with monster fastballs (90-96, 98-100 peak), nasty breaking stuff (when on), and little clue where the ball is going are my favorite. I can’t help it. Here’s what I wrote about Bazar back in October 2015…

Bazar is one of the bigger gambles to grace this list. He hasn’t done enough yet at Louisiana to warrant such a placement, but when he’s feeling it his stuff (mid- to upper-90s FB, promising low-80s SL) can suffocate even good hitting. Yes, I realize ranking the 6-7, 250+ pound righthander this high undermines a lot of what I said [about my historical tendency to overrate jumbo-sized pitchers] directly above. I’ll always be a sucker for big velocity and Bazar hitting 100+ certainly qualifies.

Even then I knew I was ranking him way too high and would regret it, but I just couldn’t help myself. One day I’ll learn…but probably not. His pro debut was pretty much perfect Bazar: plenty of strikeouts, walks, and ground balls. If coached up properly, the sky is the limit for Bazar. That much I’ll stand by. It’s just going to take a lot of work to get there. Not everybody makes it in the end.

18.545 – OF Jacob Heyward

Every draft class has one player I drag my feet on and delay writing about until the very end. I’ve gone from Bryan Reynolds to Chris Bono, but still find myself sitting here staring at an unfinished Jacob Heyward (344) section. I don’t know what it is about Heyward that renders me speechless, but here we are. Maybe looking back to last year will help. Here’s some Heyward notes from December 2015…

OF Jacob Heyward does a lot of the good things that his older brother does — defend, throw, run, work deep counts, hit for some pop — but not quite at the $184 hundred million level. He’s still a fine pro prospect and a potential top five round pick.

And here’s some from March 2016…

Steady year-to-year improvement has been the name of Heyward’s game as a Hurricane. It’s more of a fourth outfielder profile than a slam dunk future regular ceiling, but he’s a solid, well-rounded player capable of doing just enough of everything to keep you invested.

A late-season slump torpedoed Heyward’s chances at the top five rounds and negated that “steady year-to-year improvement” line; in fact, Heyward’s season total substantially dipped across the board from his sophomore year to his junior year. He still maintained interesting plate discipline indicators and flashed all the positive tools — above-average raw power, average speed, average or better arm, and quality defense in a corner — that made him a prospect in the first place. It feels like a nifty fourth outfielder package if his offense comes back to something resembling his second year output at Miami.

If the evaluation was that simple, then maybe this would have been written at a more reasonable hour of the night. Maybe I’m overreacting to a 143 PA sample, but Heyward’s professional debut was an offensive explosion that ranks among the very best of any 2016 draftee. In those 143 PA, Heyward hit .330/.483/.560 with 27 BB/33 K and 11/13 SB. If he would have done that as a junior, he would have been an easy top five round pick. Instead, we’re left with a confusing prospect with a future that can be spun any number of ways.

If you’re in on Heyward, then you cite the oft-repeated assertion that Heyward is just one of those guys who will be a better professional than collegiate athlete. His junior year was the real small sample size blip and his offensive growth can be measured more by his improved approach and steady power output (.146 ISO in 2015, .141 ISO in 2016) in the face of larger potentially BABIP-related struggles. He has a really well-rounded tool set and is at least average in just about every area of the game. If he can hang in center, then he could be an everyday asset; if not, then he’s on his way to a long, fruitful career as a well-paid fourth outfielder and spot starter.

If you’re cool on Heyward, then that down junior season is Exhibit A in explaining him being overrated for years. If he was Jacob Jones (or O’Brien or Miller or Ozga) and not Heyward, then he would never have gotten that top five round hype in the first place. He’s a classic tweener with not quite enough range to play center regularly and not enough thump in his bat to ride with him in a corner. He has no carrying tool that would propel him to a certain big league future. His small sample size debut was an aberration that we will look back and have no explanation for as he works himself into an up-and-down fill-in player who spends the majority of his time at AAA.

I try not to overreact to the small sample of a pro debut, but it’s hard not to get a little excited about what Heyward did. I don’t think it’s bad form to up his projection a bit based on a few hot months because only because he’s shown that kind of progress before. I’ll stand by the fourth outfielder projection for now, but the door is opened for more if what he did this summer is closer to the real Heyward than not.

19.575 – SS Brandon Van Horn

Here’s the second of the two prospects from The Master’s College referenced in the Conner Menez pick review five rounds above. I liked Menez quite a bit…maybe the Giants should have stopped there. Brandon Van Horn’s numbers in NAIA ball look fine enough on the surface (.280/.352/.567 with a less fine 17 BB/31 K ratio), but when the team as a whole combined for a .303/.377/.502 line, the luster begins to wear off just a touch. He’s a fine defender at short, so any path to the big leagues will be on the strength of his glove-first style of play appealing to the powers that be.

20.605 – RHP Justin Alleman

Justin Alleman, formerly of Michigan State, had a weird year at Division II Lee in 2016. His peripherals were as good as you’ll find (10.31 K/9 and 1.81 BB/9), but his run prevention (5.29 ERA) was ugly. Part of the reason for that looks to be some home run weirdness — Alleman allowed 12 dingers in 64.2 IP, over 35% of the team’s total in just 16% of the innings — so I’m not sure how much of a concern that should be going forward. Alleman’s stuff (90-94 FB, 96 peak; above-average breaking ball) suggest that those peripherals were a better reflection on his long-term ability than the ERA suggests. He’ll be 23-years-old to start his first full season, so he’ll need a hot start in pro ball to move as quickly as his scouting reports and track record warrant. I like this pick.

21.635 – C Will Albertson

Very boring trivia about me: for reasons unknown, I always associate Lonnie Chisenhall with Catawba. Seeing as he played at Pitt Community College and not Catawba, I have no idea why I think that. There’s yet to be a positive value player drafted out of Catawba. Jerry Sands has been the best so far. Maybe Will Albertson will be the first. In any event, writing this all out was done with the intent of finally getting the Chisenhall/Catawba out of my brain forever. Seeing it in writing helps me realize how wrong it all is.

Anyway, Will Albertson finished his season season with a disappointing .404/.494/.689 line with only 32 BB/19 K and a mere 7/10 SB. That was nothing compared to his junior season:.467/.531/.865 with 26 BB/21 K and 2/2 SB. Seeing a hugely productive hitter with athleticism capable of playing a premium defensive position like Albertson instantly made me think of the St. Louis draft (again) that I couldn’t write enough nice things about earlier this fall. Then I read this

“I’m excited,” Albertson said. “They were one of the teams I has been talking to and they expressed a lot of interest. I knew if I team was going to take me, it was going to be them or St. Louis. St. Louis said I had a chance on being taken yesterday, but that didn’t happen.

Makes sense. Albertson is an accomplished Division II hitter with a decent arm (strong, but could use some quickening of his release to help it play up) and average speed. If he can keep developing defensively, then Albertson’s offensive blend of patience and pop could make him a real prospect with legitimate starting upside. I’m more than happy to drive this bandwagon.

22.665 – OF Malique Ziegler

I erroneously had Malique Ziegler in my notes as a 2017 draft-eligible incoming freshman at Northern Illinois earlier in the year. Imagine my surprise seeing him turn up as a signed 2016 draft pick of the Giants. If it helps set the stage, I was sitting at my computer with a slightly confused look on my face. I may or may not have said “Huh” to myself. Feels like you were there in the room with me, right? Ziegler left Northern Illinois to attend North Iowa Area Community College (or NIACC, which is all kinds of catchy) where he hit a robust .395/.490/.726 with 35 BB/43 K and 31/34 SB. He is a great athlete with plus speed who can more than hold his own in center. That sentence and his 2016 stats at NIACC are all I know about Ziegler, but that’s enough to make him a late-round name to watch going forward. I’m still not sure how I feel about the Giants drafting all those wild college pitchers, but just about everything else they’ve done gets an emphatic seal of approval from me.

23.695 – RHP Jacob Greenwalt

I’ll try to be brief here because I can only imagine how fans of 29 other teams are reacting to me loving all of these late-round Giants selections. Jacob Greenwalt is another outstanding find at this stage of the draft. Signing any prep prospect this late is an automatic win, but it becomes an even bigger WIN when the prep prospect in question has a quality fastball (88-92, 94 peak), commands two offspeed pitches (curve and change), is very athletic, and hails from one of my favorite states (Colorado) to unearth undervalued high school pitching. Greenwalt’s signing scout deserves a raise.

24.725 – C Jeffry Parra

I know very little about Jeffry Parra other than the fact that his name is not spelled Jeffery (as most of the internet claims), he’s a prep catcher from New York with a good chance to stick behind the plate, and he signed for the maximum bonus without penalty ($100,000) as a twenty-fourth round pick. You know what? Parra’s signing scout deserves a raise, too. Getting high school players signed past round twenty is a pretty big deal that should be celebrated more by prospect-obsessed fans.

26.785 – OF Nick Hill

Joe Lefebvre, Steve Balboni, and Jim Mecir were all drafted out of Eckerd College. Nick Hill will attempt to join them in the big league fraternity one day. His college draft year production (.391/.457/.590 and 12/15 SB) is strong yet not without red flags (10 BB/34 K). My notes on him that I was supposed to clean up, but it’s late so whatever: “size, decent start, idk.” Analysis like that is why they pay me the big bucks.

27.815 – RHP Pat Ruotolo

Whatever the maximum allowed amount of enjoyment can be derived from a team selecting an undersized college reliever from New England in the twenty-seventh round is, I’m there with Pat Ruotolo going off the board to the Giants here. Ruotolo is short and thick at 5-10, 220 pounds. His stuff is more ordinary (88-92 FB, 94 peak; mid-70s CB; CU) than amazing. His control has been up (2.35 BB/9 as a junior) and down (5.50 BB/9 as a sophomore, 4.70 BB/9 as a freshman). Through it all, Pat Ruotolo has missed bats. From 10.02 K/9 as a freshman to 12.89 K/9 as a sophomore to 10.58 K/9 as a junior, Ruotolo has gotten results out of the pen for the Huskies. In the pros, little changed: Ruotolo set down 15.75 batters per nine while walking 5.25 batters in the same stretch. I’m cool with going with either extreme in the mid- to late-rounds. Go get a guy with fantastic stuff and inconsistent results or a guy with questionable stuff and dominant results, but pick a lane and go hard with it. Ruotolo has been a great reliever for over three years now, and there’s no reason to doubt him going forward. The lack of knockout stuff puts a cap on his ultimate upside, but why can’t Ruotolo keep getting opportunities to impress the powers that be and eventually get his shot at middle relief?

29.875 – SS Mike Bernal

Already 24-years-old, Mike Bernal will have to get moving if he wants to fulfill his late-round utility guy upside. He played mostly second in his pro debut, but also managed to get a few innings in at short and third. I like him as a defender and athlete, so the possibility that he can keep rising as a defense-oriented backup exists. My lack of love for his offensive game has me bearish on him making it to the highest level.

30.905 – LHP Nick Deeg

Nick Deeg (191) has gotten a little bit better every season going back to his days as a Michigan prep star. You have to like that. From February 2016…

He’s third on my list only because of a lost coin flip to Deeg, another lefthander with above-average velocity (86-92, 94 peak) and an average or better breaking ball (his curve took off this summer after firming up from a loopier 71-74 to an improved 79-81 bender). Deeg got the edge over fellow lefty Akin despite the latter’s better peripherals to date because of a more advanced change (a low-80s offering with average or better upside) and an interesting but as yet underdeveloped mid-80s cutter. His size advantage (6-5, 220 for Deeg, 6-1, 200 for Akin) certainly didn’t hurt either.

I really don’t understand how Deeg fell to pick 905. I understand there was a velocity dip during the 2016 season from his usual upper-80s/low-90s down to mid-80s/upper-80s, but he was still effective throughout the year. I’d personally have a hard time knocking a prospect with as strong a track record as Deeg’s down for that unless I had been tipped off on whatever caused his velocity dip being permanent or not. Maybe teams know something I don’t here; 6-5, 220 pound lefthanders who have flashes his kind of stuff at his best don’t typically fall twenty plus rounds past their peak talent level without a decent reason. In the present absence of that missing piece of knowledge that may or may not actually exist, I’ll happily go on record calling Deeg one of the absolute biggest steals in this draft. Did you read all those word on Matt Krook earlier? The two are very different prospects with different degrees of upside and risk, but I ranked Deeg higher pre-draft than Krook. Pre-draft rankings lose a sliver of utility as every day past the end of the draft goes by, but still. This is a crazy steal by the Giants.

32.965 – RHP John Timmins

John Timmins does the power sinker/slider thing almost a little too well judging by how little present control he has on his darting stuff. In two years as a Bellevue Bruin, Timmins struck out 9.47 batters per nine while walking 5.08 batters in the same stretch. It was a small sample (26.2 total innings), but indicative of the kind of pitcher he is. The less said about his pro debut, the better. His arm is too good to dismiss based on 22.1 ugly innings, but it’s clear the big righthander has plenty to work on in pro ball.

34.1025 – RHP CJ Gettman

The Giants grab another big arm (90-94, 96 peak) from somewhat off the beaten path (Central Washington, home of just three MLB draft picks in twenty years) in CJ Gettman, a highly productive if effectively wild (13.85 K/9 and 5.19 BB/9) righthanded reliever with good size (6-5, 220). Feels like a slightly better version of John Timmins to me.

35.1055 – LHP Sidney Duprey

This is a fun one for a few reasons. First, Sidney Duprey is a native of Guayama, Puerto Rico. Didn’t see that one coming. Second, he’s a bonafide two-way prospect: his sophomore season at Kaskaskia CC in Illinois saw him hit .378/.471/.446 with 13 BB/13 K in 87 PA while also putting up outstanding numbers (9.71 K/9 and 1.99 BB/9 in 81.2 IP) on the mound. That leads us to our third fun fact about Sidney Duprey: the man can pitch a little bit. Duprey is typically 87-91 with his fastball and able to consistently command a decent breaking ball. If it all works out, maybe he can make it as a matchup lefty one day. If that’s the case, he’ll be MLB’s first Sidney since Sir Sidney Ponson retired back in 2009.

36.1085 – C Ryan Matranga

Any time you can select a local product coming off a .182/.237/.221 (8 BB/41 K) season, you pretty much have to do it. Matranga is a good defensive catcher, so it’s not like this is the worst pick in the entire draft or anything. I mean, it’s on the short list of worst picks and very much in the running, but it’s not definitively the worst pick. There are others that give it some stiff competition, I can assure you.

37.1115 – OF Chris Bono

I wouldn’t quite put the selection of Chris Bono in the worst draft pick mix, but he’s only about a tier away. Bono hit .183/.335/.266 as a redshirt-senior at UCLA. In his defense, he’s a better all-around prospect than can be summed up with his triple-slash. He’s a good athlete who can run, throw, and more than hold his own in center field. There are worse potential org guys to give opportunities to at this stage, I suppose.

Unsigned Prospects and Where You Can Find Them in 2017

Jason Delay (Vanderbilt), Mike Rescigno (Maryland), Jayden O’Dell (?), Adam Laskey (Duke), Jarrett Montgomery (Northwest Florida State JC), David Lee (Florida), Andrew DiPiazza (?), Nick Bennett (Louisville)

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2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – Pac-12

The original plan was to go team-by-team for the biggest and baddest conferences around, but the narratives that developed organically when compiling the overall Pac-12 prospect list were too good to ignore. Look at some of the decisions that teams will have to make on just the position player prospects in this conference this year…

Logan Ice OR Colby Woodmansee
Brett Cumberland OR Jeremy Martinez OR Brian Serven
Trever Morrison OR Tommy Edman
David Greer OR Eric Filia
Cody Ramer OR Mitchell Kranson OR Timmy Robinson

And then on the pitching side we start with what has to rank among the most fascinating trios of arms in any conference in college ball: Daulton Jefferies and Cal Quantrill and Matt Krook. All three guys have legitimate arguments for the top spot. It’s not a bad year for amateur baseball fans who have smartly opted to settle in the western part of the country. We’ll get back to those three co-headliners shortly (those more interested in the pitchers can skip to the bolded parenthetical below), but first let’s get into the hitters.

.365/.460/.533 – 22 BB/5 K
.360/.483/.697 – 20 BB/5 K

Top is Matt Thaiss this year, bottom is Logan Ice so far. It’s no wonder that a friend of mine regularly refers to Ice as “Pacific NW Thaiss.” That sounds so made up, but it’s not. Anyway, Ice is a really good prospect. He’s received some national acclaim this season, yet still strikes me as one of the draft’s most underrated college bats. There are no questions about his defense behind the plate – coming into the year many considered him to be a catch-and-throw prospect with a bat that might relegate him to backup work – and his power, while maybe not .700 SLG real, is real. I don’t think a late-first round selection is unrealistic, but I’ll hedge and call him a potential huge value pick at any point after the draft’s first day. I can’t wait to start stacking the college catching board; my hunch is that prospect who comes in tenth or so would be a top three player in most classes. My only concern for Ice – a stretch, admittedly – is that teams will put off drafting college catchers early because of the belief that they can wait and still get a good one later.

Those who prefer Colby Woodmansee to Ice as the Pac-12’s best position player prospect have an equally strong case. Like Ice, Woodmansee is a near-lock to remain at a premium defensive position in the pros with enough offensive upside to profile as a potential impact player at maturation. Early on the process there were some who questioned Woodmansee’s long-term defensive outlook – shortstops who are 6-3, 200 pounds tend to unfairly get mentally moved off the position to third, a weird bit of biased thinking that I’ve been guilty of in the past – but his arm strength, hands, and first-step quickness all should allow him to remain at his college spot for the foreseeable future. Offensively there may not be one particular thing he does great, but what he does well is more than enough. Woodmansee has average to above-average raw power and speed, lots of bat speed and athleticism, and solid plate discipline. For the exact opposite reason why I think Ice and others like him might slip some on draft day, the all-around average to above-average skill set of Woodmansee at shortstop, a position as shallow as any in this draft, should help him go off the board earlier than most might think.

The trio of catchers after Ice all offer something a little bit different; for that reason, I could see them ending up in any order on any random team’s draft board. Brett Cumberland primary claim to fame is and will be his bat. His hit tool is legit and his power is really appealing. He’s also been described to me as a guy who can be pitched to while also being the kind of smart, naturally gifted hitter who can then make adjustments on the fly. His glove is more “good enough” than good, but there’s enough there that you can work with him to make it work. Jeremy Martinez is another catcher who has been described to me as “good enough” defensively, but that’s an opinion my admittedly non-scout eyes don’t see. I wrote about him briefly last month…

I’ve long thought that Jeremy Martinez has been underrated as a college player, so I’m happy to get a few sentences off about how much I like him here. Martinez was born to catch with a reliable glove and accurate arm. His offensive game is equally well-rounded with the chance for an average hit tool and average raw power to go along with his standout approach. His ceiling may not be high enough for all teams to fall in love, but he’s as good a bet as any of the college catchers in this class to have a long big league career in some capacity or another.

Martinez might not be the most exciting catcher in this class, but he’s at or near the top in terms of well-roundedness for me. It’s an imperfect comp to be sure, but he reminds me some of a less athletic version of James McCann coming out of Arkansas. While some scouts disagree about the defensive utility of Cumberland and Martinez, there are no such rumblings about the glove and arm of Brian Serven. Blessed with an arm both strong and accurate, Serven’s strong hands and plus mobility behind the plate make him a defensive weapon. Whether or not he’ll keep hitting enough to play regularly remains an open question for me – all I have on him offensively are his numbers and that he’s got average or better raw power – but the present defensive value is enough to last a long time in pro ball.

Choosing between Trever Morrison or Tommy Edman might seem easy at first, but the two Pac-12 middle infield standouts are closer in value for me than one might expect. I like Morrison’s glove at short a lot and his physical gifts (above-average arm and speed) are impressive. I’m less sure about him hitting enough to profile as a regular than most. Edman’s bat is more my speed thanks to his strong hit tool, good understanding of the strike zone, and ability to make consistent contact even when down in the count. I’ve given in to those who have long tried to convince me he’s more second baseman than shortstop, but there’s still a part of me who thinks he’s good enough to play short. For a guy with realistic ceiling of big league utility man, I can more than live with that kind of defensive future. If I really stuck to my guns here then you’d see Edman over Morrison, but for now I’ll defer to the overwhelming consensus of smarter people out there who let me know (nicely, mostly) that I was nuts for considering it. I guess the big takeaway here for me is that either player would be great value at any point after the first five rounds.

I’ve lumped David Greer and Eric Filia together because both guys can really, really hit. I think both guys can work themselves up the minor league ladder based on the strength of their hit tool (plate discipline included) alone. Defensive questions for each hitter put a cap on their respective ceilings (Greer intrigues me defensively with his plus arm and experience at 1B, 2B, 3B, and in the OF; Filia seems like left field or first base all the way), but, man, can they both hit.

The last group is probably the weirdest: we have a utility guy finally hitting after three lackluster offensive seasons, a college baseball folk hero with a fascinating defensive profile, and a powerful, tooled-up outfielder who has made slow yet steady improvements over the years. Cody Ramer is an athletic second baseman/shortstop/third baseman/outfielder with average speed and some pop having a major offensive breakout in his final season in the desert. Mitchell Kranson impressed me as the rare college catcher capable of calling his own game; now that he’s been moved to third base, I don’t know what to make of his long-term defensive prospects. His high-contact approach still intrigues me, however. Timmy Robinson‘s tools are really impressive: above-average to plus raw power, average to above-average speed, above-average to plus arm, above-average to plus range, and all kinds of physical strength. That player sounds incredible, so it should be noted that getting all of his raw ability going at the same time and translating it to usable on-field skills has been a challenge. He’s gotten a little bit better every season and now looks to be one of the draft’s most intriguing senior-signs.

There are a ton of players uncovered above that deserve more space than they’ll wind up getting here between now and June. Aaron Knapp fascinates me as an athlete with easy center field range and impact speed, but with such little power that the profile might wind up shorting before he even gets a real chance in pro ball. Mark Karaviotis would have been much higher on this list coming into the year, but a lost junior season puts his stock in limbo. Corey Dempster is one of the many Pac-12 hitters with limited track records prior to 2016 that have come alive this season. His power/speed combination and ability to man center make him intriguing. Then there’s Darrell Miller, the UCLA catcher who would have added to the already stacked group of catchers in the conference if he would have stayed healthy. Even after missing this season with a labrum injury, it still might be worth it for area guys to gauge his interest in leaving college behind for the pros. Those four are just a small taste of the depth of the conference in 2016: there are dozens of other names outside of the top ten or so that deserve draft consideration. Fun year.

(Here is the stuff on Jefferies, Quantrill, and Krook mentioned in the introduction)

Jefferies, Quantrill, and Krook in some order. That’s the limit of what I know for sure about the top of the Pac-12 pitching prospect pile. I’m not sure you could come up with an order that I’d disagree with.

Jefferies is a rock-solid future big league starting pitcher. I love Daulton Jefferies. An overly enthusiastic but well-meaning friend comped Jefferies to Chris Archer after seeing him this past summer. That’s…rich. It’s not entirely crazy, though. Velocity-wise, at his best, Jefferies can sit 90-94 and touch 97. He’s been more frequently in the 88-92 band this spring (94 peak). He’s also focused far more on his low- to mid-80s slider than his mid- to upper-70s curve. I thought both had the potential to be above-average breaking balls at the big league level, but I can’t blame him for going all-in on his potentially devastating slider. Then there’s the compact, athletic delivery and plus fastball command and above-average mid-80s change-up that flashes plus and…well, you can see why he’d get such a lofty comp. Lack of size or not, Jefferies has the kind of stuff that could make him a number two starter if everything goes his way developmentally. That’s big time. High ceiling + high floor = premium pitching prospect. I think Jefferies draft floor is where Walker Buehler, a player that D1 Baseball comped to him earlier this year, landed last year. That would be pick 24 in the first round for those of you who haven’t committed Walker Buehler’s draft position to memory yet. A case could be made (and it kind of has above, right?) that slipping any further than that would be ridiculous value for his new pro team. I think he’s worth considering in the top ten depending on how the rest of the board shakes out.

On talent alone, Cal Quantrill deserves to be right there with Jefferies as a potential top ten overall pick contender. Last year’s Tommy John surgery and the subsequent lost time in 2016, however, complicate the matter, though it’s hard to say how much. Quantrill’s 77-81 MPH change-up is one of my favorite pitches in this entire class. Easy velocity (89-95, 96 peak), a pair of interesting breaking balls, all kinds of pitchability, and that change-up…what more could you want? Good health, I suppose. A few late season starts would go a very long way in easing the minds of big league scouting directors charged with making the decision whether or not to cut a multi-million dollar check (or cheque in the case of the Canadian born Quantrill) to the Stanford righthander. I recently wondered aloud about how teams will perceive Quantrill in this his draft year…

The attrition at the top of the college pitching pile has left Cal Quantrill, yet to pitch in 2016 as he recovers from last year’s Tommy John surgery, one of the college game’s most intriguing mound prospects. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, right? I wonder if the star student out of Stanford knew this and staged the whole elbow injury to allow time for his competition to implode all over the place. That’s a joke. Not a good one, but a joke all the same.

I also have said on the record that I’d consider taking him sight unseen (in 2016) with a pick just outside the draft’s top ten. You might say I’m bullish on Quantrill’s pro prospects.

And then there’s Matt Krook! I had him second only to Alec Hansen (whoops) in my overall college pitching rankings before the season and now he’s third in his own conference. You could look at that as me being wishy-washy (not really, but maybe), me not knowing what I was doing in the first place (always a possibility), or this year’s draft class being more talented than some would like you to believe (yes). Whatever the case may be, Krook remains a legitimate first round arm with as much upside as any college pitcher throwing. Here was the pre-season take that accompanied the aforementioned ranking…

This may be a touch more speculative that some of the other names on the list since Krook missed the 2015 season after Tommy John surgery, but I’m buying all the Krook shares I can right now. He came back and impressed on the Cape enough to warrant consideration as a potential 1-1 riser. There’s no squaring up his fastball and there’s more than enough offspeed (CB and CU) to miss bats (12 K/9 in 45 freshman innings). He’s not as physical as AJ Puk, but the more advanced secondaries give him the edge for now.

I stand by that today. His fastball velocity isn’t all the way back yet (more of a steady 88-92 than 90-94), but he still gets incredible movement on the pitch. His curve has morphed into something more like a slider (or something in-between), but remains a true plus offering. Both his command and his control remain works in progress as he pitches himself back into competitive shape. Picking Krook as early as I’d recommend would take a bit of a leap of faith in his command/control woes being remedied largely by the increased passage of time separating him from his surgery. Going Krook would not be for the faint of heart, but, hey, nothing venture nothing gained, right?

There’s a steep decline after those top three names, but worry not as there are still quality arms to be had scattered across the rest of the conference. Krook’s teammate with the Ducks, Cole Irvin, has seen his stuff rebound this year close to his own pre-TJ surgery levels. I was off Irvin early last season when he was more upper-80s with a loopy curve, but he is now capable of getting it back up to 92 (still sits 85-90) with a sharper upper-70s slider that complements his firmer than before curve and consistently excellent 78-81 change. It’s back of the rotation type starter stuff if it continues to come back. Ian Hamilton could have similar upside (or better) if you’re the type who believes in him as a starter at the next level. He’s got the offspeed stuff (above-average 80-86 SL that flashes plus and an average 80-84 CU) to go through a lineup multiple times. He’s also highly athletic. Those are the points in his favor if you like him as a starter. I’m willing to be talked into it, but the way his fastball plays up in short bursts (consistently 92-96, up to 99) as opposed to the 90-93 he sits as a starter has me still liking him more as a fireman out of the pen.

If it’s a true college reliever you want, then Stephen Nogosek out of Oregon is your best bet. He’s a little bit like Hamilton in that he’s got the raw stuff to start – an honest four-pitch mix seems wasted some in relief – but his command would make longer outings untenable at this time. As a reliever, however, he’s effectively wild. Pitching out of the pen also puts him on the short list of fastest potential movers. Chris Viall seems like another reliever all the way. With lots of heat (up to 96-97) and intimidating size (6-9, 230 pounds), he could be a good one.

A pair of seniors that have intrigued me for years have put it all together in their last year of eligibility. Kyle Davis, a prospect I once thought would wind up better as a catcher than as a pitcher, has compiled strong numbers since almost his first day on campus. As I’ve said a lot in the preceding paragraphs, a big point in his favor is that he has the requisite three to four pitches needed to start. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll continue to hold down a rotation spot in the pros, but it gives him a shot. Fellow senior Ryan Mason’s scouting dossier has always looked better than his peripherals: upper-80s heat (92 peak) with plus sink, a deceptive delivery, and lots of extension thanks to a 6-6, 215 pound frame should have resulted in better than a 3.69 K/9 last season. Of course, the ugliness of his peripherals was overshadowed by his consistently strong run prevention skills (2.97 ERA last season). It’s a really weird profile, but everything seems to have caught up this year: stuff, peripherals, and run prevention all are where you’d want them to be. I remain intrigued.

I forgot I had started going team-by-team before I went to my usual overarching view of the conference. Here’s what I had on Bobby Dalbec of Arizona…

Bobby Dalbec continues to confound. More and more people I’ve spoken to are becoming open to the idea of sending him out as a pitcher in pro ball. As frustrating as he can be at the plate, I don’t think I could throw his kind of power away that easily, even if only on a temporary basis. I also don’t think I’d touch him in the first five rounds. The comparison shared with me before the season to Chris Dominguez feels more and more prescient by the day.

I had Dominguez ranked 41st on my final board back in 2009 before he was drafted 86th overall by the Giants. I’m not sure what it says (if anything) about my own evolving view on prospecting or how the industry itself has changed or how the game has shifted, but I can say with 100% certainty that Dalbec won’t rank anywhere close to where Dominguez once landed on my personal ranks. I can also say with about 95% certainty that he won’t be drafted as high as Dominguez was in 2009. Of course, a player’s draft ranking ultimately is not about where he falls on the average of all teams’ boards but rather where he eventually falls on the board of the one team that drafts him. That’s where that 5% uncertainty comes in: all it takes is one team to look at Dalbec’s two clear plus tools (raw power, arm strength) and believe they can tweak his swing to make enough contact to allow his natural ability to shine through. His upside is very real, as is the possibility he tops out as an all-or-nothing AA power hitter. I’m out on him for now, but I understand the appeal. Chicks dig the long ball.

Then I started very briefly in on Arizona State…

David Greer is one of college baseball’s best, most underrated hitters. I’d put his hit tool on the short list of best in this college class. With that much confidence in him offensively, the only real question that needs to be answered is what position he’ll play as a pro. Right now it appears that a corner outfield spot is the most likely destination, but his prior experience at both second and third will no doubt intrigue teams willing to trade a little defense for some offense at those spots.

RJ Ybarra has had a good year, a bad year, a good year, and is now in the midst of another bad year. By that logic, teams should be hot to draft him so that he has a big full season debut in 2017, right?

And then I gave up on the team-by-team approach and went back to the usual way and here we are.

Hitters

  1. Oregon State JR C Logan Ice
  2. Arizona State JR SS/2B Colby Woodmansee
  3. California SO C Brett Cumberland
  4. USC JR C/1B Jeremy Martinez
  5. Oregon State JR SS Trever Morrison
  6. Stanford JR 2B/SS Tommy Edman
  7. Arizona JR 3B/RHP Bobby Dalbec
  8. Arizona State JR C Brian Serven
  9. Arizona State JR OF/1B David Greer
  10. UCLA rSR OF Eric Filia
  11. Arizona SR 2B/SS Cody Ramer
  12. California SR 3B/C Mitchell Kranson
  13. UCLA JR OF/2B Luke Persico
  14. USC SR OF Timmy Robinson
  15. Oregon JR OF Austin Grebeck
  16. California JR OF Aaron Knapp
  17. Oregon JR SS/2B Mark Karaviotis
  18. Utah SR SS/2B Cody Scaggari
  19. Arizona SR OF Zach Gibbons
  20. USC JR OF Corey Dempster
  21. USC SR OF David Oppenheim
  22. UCLA rJR C Darrell Miller
  23. Arizona SR 1B/OF Ryan Aguilar
  24. Arizona SR OF Justin Behnke
  25. UCLA JR OF Brett Stephens
  26. California SR OF Devin Pearson
  27. Stanford JR OF Jackson Klein
  28. Oregon SR 1B/OF Phillipe Craig-St. Louis
  29. Oregon rSO OF/1B AJ Balta
  30. Oregon SR 3B/SS Matt Eureste
  31. Oregon JR OF Nick Catalano
  32. Oregon State JR 3B Caleb Hamilton
  33. USC rJR SS Reggie Southall
  34. UCLA JR OF Kort Peterson
  35. Utah SR 1B Kellen Marruffo
  36. Stanford SR 1B/C Austin Barr
  37. California SR OF/1B Nick Halamandaris
  38. USC SR OF/1B AJ Ramirez
  39. USC rSO 2B/SS Frankie Rios
  40. Oregon State JR OF Kyle Nobach
  41. Oregon State JR 1B/OF Billy King
  42. UCLA rSR OF Christoph Bono
  43. Utah rJR 3B Dallas Carroll
  44. Washington JR OF Jack Meggs
  45. Washington JR 1B Gage Matuszak
  46. Washington State JR OF Cameron Frost
  47. California rSR 1B Brenden Farney
  48. UCLA SR 2B Trent Chatterdon
  49. Washington JR SS Chris Baker
  50. Arizona State SR C RJ Ybarra
  51. California JR 2B/OF Robbie Tenerowicz
  52. Arizona JR SS Louis Boyd
  53. California rSR OF Brian Celsi
  54. Utah SR 2B Kody Davis
  55. Utah SR C AJ Young
  56. Washington JR OF MJ Hubbs
  57. Stanford SR OF Jonny Locher
  58. Washington JR OF Josh Cushing
  59. Utah JR OF Josh Rose
  60. Utah JR SS Ellis Kelly

Pitchers

  1. California JR RHP Daulton Jefferies
  2. Stanford JR RHP Cal Quantrill
  3. Oregon rSO LHP Matt Krook
  4. Oregon rJR LHP Cole Irvin
  5. Washington State JR RHP Ian Hamilton
  6. Oregon JR RHP Stephen Nogosek
  7. Stanford JR RHP Chris Viall
  8. USC SR RHP Kyle Davis
  9. Arizona State JR RHP Hever Bueno
  10. California SR RHP Ryan Mason
  11. Arizona State JR RHP Seth Martinez
  12. USC JR RHP/3B Jeff Paschke
  13. USC JR LHP Bernardo Flores
  14. UCLA JR RHP Grant Dyer
  15. Stanford JR RHP Tyler Thorne
  16. UCLA rJR RHP Tucker Forbes
  17. USC SR RHP Brooks Kriske
  18. Arizona State JR RHP Eder Erives
  19. Oregon State JR RHP Jake Thompson
  20. Oregon State SR RHP Travis Eckert
  21. Arizona SR LHP Cody Moffett
  22. USC rJR RHP Joe Navilhon
  23. Arizona SR RHP Nathan Bannister
  24. Washington SR RHP Troy Rallings
  25. Arizona JR RHP Austin Schnabel
  26. Washington SR RHP Spencer Jones
  27. Oregon State JR RHP John Pomeroy
  28. UCLA rJR RHP Nick Kern
  29. Oregon State rJR LHP Max Engelbrekt
  30. Stanford SR RHP Daniel Starwalt
  31. California JR RHP Alex Schick
  32. USC SR RHP Brent Wheatley
  33. Washington JR RHP Westin Wuethrich
  34. USC SR LHP Marc Huberman
  35. Washington SR RHP Alex Nesbitt
  36. California JR RHP Trevin Haseltine
  37. Stanford JR RHP/3B Brett Hanewich
  38. USC JR LHP/OF Andrew Wright
  39. Utah SR RHP Dalton Carroll
  40. Washington SR LHP Will Ballowe
  41. Arizona State SR RHP Eric Melbostad
  42. Arizona rSO LHP Rio Gomez
  43. Washington SR RHP Ryan Schmitten
  44. Utah JR LHP Dylan Drachler
  45. UCLA JR RHP Moises Ceja
  46. UCLA JR RHP Scott Burke
  47. Washington JR LHP Henry Baker
  48. UCLA rJR LHP Hunter Virant
  49. Arizona rSO RHP Robby Medel
  50. Arizona JR RHP Kevin Ginkel
  51. UCLA rJR RHP Chase Radan
  52. Stanford JR LHP Chris Castellanos
  53. Utah SR RHP Nolan Stouder
  54. Arizona JR LHP JC Cloney
  55. Oregon JR RHP Cooper Stiles
  56. Arizona State SR RHP/2B Jordan Aboites

Arizona

rSO LHP Rio Gomez (2016)
SR RHP Nathan Bannister (2016)
SR LHP Cody Moffett (2016)
JR RHP Austin Schnabel (2016)
rSO RHP Robby Medel (2016)
JR RHP Kevin Ginkel (2016)
JR LHP JC Cloney (2016)
JR 3B/RHP Bobby Dalbec (2016)
SR OF Zach Gibbons (2016)
SR OF Justin Behnke (2016)
SR 2B/SS Cody Ramer (2016)
SR 1B/OF Ryan Aguilar (2016)
JR SS Louis Boyd (2016)
JR 1B Michael Hoard (2016)
SO RHP Matt Hartman (2017)
SO LHP Cameron Ming (2017)
SO OF Jared Oliva (2017)
SO 1B/OF JJ Matijevic (2017)
SO C Ryan Haug (2017)
FR RHP Austin Rubick (2018)
FR RHP Cody Deason (2018)
FR RHP Michael Flynn (2018)
FR LHP/OF Randy Labaut (2018)
FR OF Alfonso Rivas (2018)
FR C Cesar Salazar (2018)

High Priority Follows: Rio Gomez, Nathan Bannister, Cody Moffett, Austin Schnabel, Robby Medel, Kevin Ginkel, JC Cloney, Bobby Dalbec, Zach Gibbons, Justin Behnke, Cody Ramer, Ryan Aguilar, Louis Boyd, Michael Hoard

Arizona State

JR RHP Hever Bueno (2016)
JR RHP Seth Martinez (2016)
JR RHP Eder Erives (2016)
SR RHP Eric Melbostad (2016)
SR RHP/2B Jordan Aboites (2016)
JR SS/2B Colby Woodmansee (2016)
JR OF/1B David Greer (2016)
SR C RJ Ybarra (2016)
JR C Brian Serven (2016)
SR OF/1B Chris Beall (2016)
JR OF Daniel Williams (2016)
JR C Zach Cerbo (2016)
SO RHP Ryan Hingst (2017)
SO LHP Tucker Baca (2017)
SO LHP/OF Andrew Shaps (2017)
SO LHP Reagan Todd (2017)
SO RHP Grant Schneider (2017)
SO LHP Eli Lingos (2017)
SO OF Coltin Gerhart (2017)
SO SS/3B Ryan Lillard (2017)
SO OF/1B Sebastian Zawada (2017)
SO 2B Andrew Snow (2017)
FR RHP Giovanni Lopez (2018)
FR RHP Garvin Alston (2018)
FR RHP Fitz Stadler (2018)
FR RHP Liam Jenkins (2018)
FR LHP Connor Higgins (2018)
FR LHP Zach Dixon (2018)
FR OF Tyler Williams (2018)
FR OF Gage Canning (2018)

High Priority Follows: Hever Bueno, Seth Martinez, Eder Erives, Eric Melbostad, Jordan Aboites, Colby Woodmansee, David Greer, RJ Ybarra, Brian Serven, Daniel Williams, Zach Cerbo

California

JR RHP Daulton Jefferies (2016)
JR RHP Alex Schick (2016)
SR RHP Ryan Mason (2016)
rJR RHP Jordan Talbot (2016)
JR RHP Trevin Haseltine (2016)
rSR RHP Keaton Siomkin (2016)
SR RHP/C Jesse Kay (2016)
JR OF Aaron Knapp (2016)
JR 2B/OF Robbie Tenerowicz (2016)
SR 3B/C Mitchell Kranson (2016)
rSR OF Brian Celsi (2016)
SR OF Devin Pearson (2016)
SR OF/1B Nick Halamandaris (2016)
SO C Brett Cumberland (2016)
rSR 1B Brenden Farney (2016)
SO RHP Jeff Bain (2017)
SO LHP Matt Ladrech (2017)
SO RHP Erik Martinez (2017)
SO SS Preston Grand Pre (2017)
SO 3B Denis Karas (2017)
FR RHP/OF Tanner Dodson (2018)
FR RHP Jake Matulovich (2018)
FR RHP Aaron Shortridge (2018)
FR RHP Connor Jackson (2018)
FR 2B/SS Ripken Reyes (2018)
FR OF Lorenzo Hampton (2018)
FR OF Jeffrey Mitchell (2018)
FR OF Jonah Davis (2018)
FR C Tyrus Greene (2018)
FR OF Cole Lemmel (2018)

High Priority Follows: Daulton Jefferies, Alex Schick, Ryan Mason, Trevin Haseltine, Aaron Knapp, Robbie Tenerowicz, Mitchell Kranson, Brian Celsi, Devin Pearson, Nick Halamandaris, Brett Cumberland, Brenden Farney

Oregon

rJR LHP Cole Irvin (2016)
rSO LHP Matt Krook (2016)
JR RHP Stephen Nogosek (2016)
JR RHP Cooper Stiles (2016)
JR OF Austin Grebeck (2016)
JR OF Nick Catalano (2016):
JR SS/2B Mark Karaviotis (2016)
rSO OF/1B AJ Balta (2016)
SR 1B/OF Phillipe Craig-St. Louis (2016)
SR 3B/SS Matt Eureste (2016)
SO LHP David Peterson (2017)
SO RHP Brac Warren (2017)
SO C Tim Susnara (2017)
SO OF Jakob Goldfarb (2017)
SO SS/2B Daniel Patzlaff (2017)
rFR C/OF Slade Heggen (2017)
rFR SS Carson Breshears (2017)
SO INF Kyle Kasser (2017)
FR RHP Isaiah Carranza (2018)
FR RHP Cody Deason (2018)
FR RHP Jacob Bennett (2018)
FR RHP/C Parker Kelly (2018)
FR RHP/INF Matt Mercer (2018)
FR SS/2B Travis Moniot (2018)
FR 3B Matt Kroon (2018)

High Priority Follows: Cole Irvin, Matt Krook, Stephen Nogosek, Cooper Stiles, Austin Grebeck, Nick Catalano, Mark Karaviotis, AJ Balta, Phillipe Craig-St. Louis, Matt Eureste

Oregon State

SR RHP Travis Eckert (2016)
JR RHP John Pomeroy (2016)
rJR LHP Max Engelbrekt (2016)
JR RHP Jake Thompson (2016)
JR SS Trever Morrison (2016)
JR C Logan Ice (2016)
JR 3B Caleb Hamilton (2016)
JR OF Kyle Nobach (2016)
JR 1B/OF Billy King (2016)
SO RHP Drew Rasmussen (2017)
SO RHP Mitch Hickey (2017)
SO RHP Luke Heimlich (2017)
rFR LHP Christian Martinek (2017)
SO LHP Ryan Mets (2017
SO 1B/C KJ Harrison (2017)
SO 2B/SS Christian Donahue (2017)
SO OF Elliott Cary (2017)
SO 3B/SS Joe Gillette (2017)
SO SS Michael Gretler (2017)
FR LHP Eric Parnow (2018)
FR LHP Jordan Britton (2018)
FR SS Cadyn Grenier (2018)
FR SS Nick Madrigal (2018)
FR OF Steven Kwan (2018)
FR OF Trevor Larnach (2018)
FR 3B Bryce Fehmel (2018)
FR C Alex O’Rourke (2018)

High Priority Follows: Travis Eckert, John Pomeroy, Max Engelbrekt, Jake Thompson, Trever Morrison, Logan Ice, Caleb Hamilton, Billy King

USC

SR RHP Brent Wheatley (2016)
SR LHP Marc Huberman (2016)
SR RHP Brooks Kriske (2016
JR LHP Bernardo Flores (2016)
rJR RHP Joe Navilhon (2016)
SR RHP Kyle Davis (2016)
JR LHP/OF Andrew Wright (2016)
JR RHP/3B Jeff Paschke (2016)
JR C/1B Jeremy Martinez (2016)
SR OF Timmy Robinson (2016)
rJR SS Reggie Southall (2016)
SR OF David Oppenheim (2016)
SR OF/1B AJ Ramirez (2016)
JR OF Corey Dempster (2016)
rSO 2B/SS Frankie Rios (2016)
JR C AJ Fritts (2016)
SO RHP Mitch Hart (2017)
SO RHP Brad Wegman (2017)
rFR RHP Bryce Dyrda (2017)
SO RHP Mason Perryman (2017)
SO 3B/SS Adalberto Carrillo (2017)
SO SS Angelo Armenta (2017)
SO INF Stephen Dubb (2017)
FR RHP Marrick Crouse (2018)
FR RHP Soloman Bates (2018)
FR LHP Quentin Longrie (2018)
FR 1B Dillon Paulson (2018)
FR INF Lars Nootbaar (2018)
FR C/RHP Cameron Stubbs (2018)

High Priority Follows: Brent Wheatley, Marc Huberman, Brooks Kriske, Bernardo Flores, Joe Navilhon, Kyle Davis, Andrew Wright, Jeff Paschke, Jeremy Martinez, Timmy Robinson, Reggie Southall, David Oppenheim, AJ Ramirez, Corey Dempster, Frankie Rios

Stanford

JR RHP Cal Quantrill (2016)
JR RHP Chris Viall (2016)
SR RHP Daniel Starwalt (2016)
JR RHP Tyler Thorne (2016)
JR LHP Chris Castellanos (2016)
rSR LHP John Hochstatter (2016)
JR RHP/3B Brett Hanewich (2016)
SR OF Jonny Locher (2016)
SR SS Bobby Zarubin (2016)
JR OF Jackson Klein (2016)
JR 2B/SS Tommy Edman (2016)
SR 1B/C Austin Barr (2016)
JR C Alex Dunlap (2016)
FR RHP Tristan Beck (2017)
SO RHP Keith Weisenberg (2017)
SO RHP Colton Hock (2017)
SO LHP Andrew Summerville (2017)
SO LHP John Henry Styles (2017)
SO LHP/OF Quinn Brodey (2017)
SO C Bryce Carter (2017)
SO SS/2B Beau Branton (2017)
SO 3B Mikey Diekroeger (2017)
SO SS Jesse Kuet (2017)
SO OF/1B Matt Winaker (2017)
FR LHP Kris Bubic (2018)
FR RHP Ben Baggett (2018)
FR SS Nico Hoerner (2018)
FR OF Brandon Wulff (2018)
FR OF/1B Nickolas Oar (2018)
FR OF Alec Wilson (2018)
FR SS Peter McEvoy (2018)
FR SS Duke Kinamon (2018)
FR 3B Nick Bellafronto (2018)

High Priority Follows: Cal Quantrill, Chris Viall, Daniel Starwalt, Tyler Thorne, Chris Castellanos, John Hochstatter, Brett Hanewich, Jonny Locher, Jackson Klein, Tommy Edman, Austin Barr, Alex Dunlap

UCLA

JR RHP Grant Dyer (2016)
rJR RHP Tucker Forbes (2016)
rJR LHP Hunter Virant (2016)
rJR RHP Nick Kern (2016)
rJR RHP Chase Radan (2016)
JR RHP Scott Burke (2016)
JR RHP Moises Ceja (2016)
JR OF/2B Luke Persico (2016)
rSR OF Eric Filia (2016)
JR OF Kort Peterson (2016)
rSR OF Christoph Bono (2016)
JR OF Brett Stephens (2016)
rJR C Darrell Miller (2016)
SR 2B Trent Chatterdon (2016)
SR 2B/OF Brett Urabe (2016)
SO RHP Griffin Canning (2017)
SO RHP Matt Trask (2017)
SO RHP Jake Bird (2017)
rFR RHP Nathan Hadley (2017)
rFR LHP Garrett Barker (2017)
rFR 1B Zander Clarke (2017)
rFR SS Scott Jarvis (2017)
SO SS/2B Nick Valaika (2017)
SO 3B/1B Sean Bouchard (2017)
FR RHP Kyle Molnar (2018)
FR LHP Justin Hooper (2018)
FR RHP Brian Gadsby (2018)
FR RHP Jonathan Olsen (2018)
FR RHP Jack Ralston (2018)
FR OF Daniel Amaral (2018)
FR INF Dayton Provost (2018)
FR 1B Jake Pries (2018)
FR OF Jordan Myrow (2018)
FR C Jake Hirabayshi (2018)

High Priority Follows: Grant Dyer, Tucker Forbes, Hunter Virant, Nick Kern, Chase Radan, Scott Burke, Moises Ceja, Luke Persico, Eric Filia, Kort Peterson, Christoph Bono, Brett Stephens, Darrell Miller, Trent Chatterdon, Brett Urabe

Washington

SR LHP Will Ballowe (2016)
JR RHP Westin Wuethrich (2016)
SR RHP Ryan Schmitten (2016)
SR RHP Alex Nesbitt (2016)
SR RHP Troy Rallings (2016)
SR RHP Spencer Jones (2016)
JR LHP Henry Baker (2016)
JR OF Jack Meggs (2016)
JR 1B Gage Matuszak (2016)
JR OF MJ Hubbs (2016)
JR OF Josh Cushing (2016)
JR SS Chris Baker (2016)
SO RHP Noah Bremer (2017)
SO 3B Nyles Nygaard (2017)
SO C Joey Morgan (2017)
FR RHP Joe DeMers (2018)
FR SS/2B AJ Graffanino (2018)
FR C Willie MacIver (2018):
FR OF Rex Stephan (2018)
FR 3B/OF Peyton Lacoste (2018)
FR 2B Dallas Tessar (2018)
FR 2B/OF Karl Kani (2018)

High Priority Follows: Will Ballowe, Westin Wuethrich, Ryan Schmitten, Alex Nesbitt, Troy Rallings, Spencer Jones, Henry Baker, Jack Meggs, Gage Matuszak, MJ Hubbs, Josh Cushing, Chris Baker

Washington State

JR RHP Ian Hamilton (2016)
JR LHP Layne Bruner (2016)
JR OF Cameron Frost (2016)
rJR 2B Shea Donlin (2016)
rJR OF Trek Stemp (2016)
SO RHP Ryan Walker (2017)
SO LHP Scotty Sunitsch (2017)
SO RHP Colby Nealy (2017)
rFR RHP Nick Leonard (2017)
SO INF Shane Matheny (2017)
SO OF Derek Chapman (2017)
SO C/OF JJ Hancock (2017)
FR RHP Parker McFadden (2018)
FR RHP Ryan Ward (2018)
FR SS Justin Harrer (2018)

High Priority Follows: Ian Hamilton, Cameron Frost, Trek Stemp

Utah

SR RHP Dalton Carroll (2016)
rJR LHP Hunter Rodriguez (2016)
SR RHP Nolan Stouder (2016)
JR LHP Dylan Drachler (2016)
SR C AJ Young (2016)
JR SS Ellis Kelly (2016)
SR SS/2B Cody Scaggari (2016)
rJR 3B Dallas Carroll (2016)
SR 2B Kody Davis (2016)
SR OF Wyler Smith (2016)
SR 1B Kellen Marruffo (2016)
JR OF Josh Rose (2016)
JR C Max Schuman (2016)
SO LHP Josh Lapiana (2017)
SO RHP Tanner Thomas (2017)
SO RHP Andre Jackson (2017)
SO RHP/OF Jayson Rose (2017)
FR RHP Riley Ottesen (2018)
FR OF DaShawn Keirsey (2018)
FR C Zach Moeller (2018)

High Priority Follows: Dalton Carroll, Hunter Rodriguez, Nolan Stouder, Dylan Drachler, AJ Young, Ellis Kelly, Cody Scaggari, Dallas Carroll, Kody Davis, Wyler Smith, Kellen Marruffo, Josh Rose, Max Schurman

2016 MLB Draft – College Update

We’re now one month’s worth of games into the college season, so it feels like as good a time as any to take the temperature of the top college prospects in this class. All stats are updated as of games played on March 12 or March 13 depending on when the games ended yesterday. I used this post to frame the discussion.

Many, many, many players I like were not included in this update. I say this knowing full well how obnoxious it sounds, but trust that I know about your favorite player’s hot start. Neither malice nor ignorance is the cause of their exclusion. It’s simply a time and space thing. That said, feel free to bring up said favorite players’s hot starts in the comments. The more the merrier there, I say.

C Zack Collins – Miami – .400/.576/.733 – 19 BB/9 K – 0/1 SB – 45 AB
1B Will Craig – Wake Forest – .458/.581/1.021 – 10 BB/7 K – 48 AB
2B Nick Senzel – Tennessee – .393/.500/.589 – 14 BB/6 K – 7/8 SB – 56 AB
SS Michael Paez – Coastal Carolina – .328/.418/.483 – 6 BB/11 K – 0/2 SB – 58 AB
3B Bobby Dalbec – Arizona – .191/.350/.319 – 10 BB/17 K – 0/1 SB – 47 AB
OF Kyle Lewis – Mercer – .466/.581/.879 – 15 BB/8 K – 1/2 SB – 58 AB
OF Buddy Reed – Florida – .306/.411/.468 – 10 BB/12 K – 7/7 SB – 62 AB
OF Corey Ray – Louisville – .377/.452/.738 – 9 BB/6 K – 20/22 SB – 61 AB

We knew Collins could hit, so his great start is hardly a surprise. Still, those numbers are insane, very much under-the-radar nationally (source: my Twitter feed), and more than good enough to play at first base if you don’t think he’s worth trying behind the plate as a pro. It took Kyle Schwarber a long time to gain national acceptance as a potential top ten pick; I could see Collins following a similar path between now and June. He’s already very much in that mix for me.

Craig is a monster. The only note I’d pass along with his scorching start is that Wake Forest has played 12 of their first 17 games in the very friendly offensive confines of their home park. I still love the bat.

Senzel is yet another of the top prospect bats off to a wild start at the plate. Got an Anthony Rendon-lite comp on him recently that I think fits fairly well.

Much has been made about Ray’s start — rightfully so as he’s been awesome — that what Lewis has done so far has been overlooked some. I’m not blind to the fact that Ray’s functional speed and higher level of competition faced make him the preferred college outfielder for many, but no reason to sleep on Lewis.

RHP Alec Hansen – Oklahoma – 13.20 K/9 – 7.20 BB/9 – 6.00 ERA – 15.0 IP
LHP Matt Krook – Oregon – 14.32 K/9 – 7.67 BB/9 – 4.08 ERA – 17.2 IP
RHP Connor Jones – Virginia – 7.91 K/9 – 1.98 BB/9 – 1.98 ERA – 27.1 IP
LHP AJ Puk – Florida – 9.53 K/9 – 4.76 BB/9 – 2.65 ERA – 17.0 IP
RHP Dakota Hudson – Mississippi State – 12.20 K/9 – 5.72 BB/9 – 1.90 ERA – 23.2 IP

Funny how three of the top five have lines that line up similarly so far. I think Jones has shown the best mix of stuff and results out of this top tier this spring. I also think that right now there really isn’t a realistic college arm that can lay claim to being in the 1-1 mix. Early returns on the top of the 2016 college class: bats > arms.

C Sean Murphy – Wright State – .259/.429/.778 – 5 BB/5 K – 0/0 SB – 27 AB
1B Pete Alonso – Florida – .424/.493/.661 – 8 BB/4 K – 1/1 SB – 59 AB
2B JaVon Shelby – Kentucky – .341/.481/.756 – 8 BB/7 K – 2/2 SB – 41 AB
SS Logan Gray – Austin Peay State – .327/.450/.755 – 11 BB/16 K – 2/2 SB – 49 AB
3B Sheldon Neuse – Oklahoma – .340/.493/.698 – 16 BB/14 K – 6/6 SB – 53 AB
OF Bryan Reynolds – Vanderbilt – .345/.486/.618 – 14 BB/18 K – 2/5 SB – 55 AB
OF Jake Fraley – Louisiana State – .400/.500/.583 – 12 BB/7 K – 11/15 SB – 60 AB
OF Nick Banks – Texas A&M – .263/.317/.421 – 2 BB/6 K – 0/0 SB – 38 AB

While the First Team has had a few slow starters (Dalbec for sure, Paez if you’re picking nits about his BB/K), the Second Team is rolling from top to bottom. Murphy and Banks have been slowed some by injuries, but otherwise these guys are mashing.

It speaks to how great Lewis and Ray (and even Reed to an extent) have been this year that neither Reynolds nor Fraley have gained much traction as top outfield prospects in the national consciousness. Both are really good players who will make their drafting teams very happy in June.

It’s taken me a few years, but I finally realized who Banks reminds me of as a prospect: Hunter Renfroe. I’m not yet sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing, but it’s a thing.

RHP Cal Quantrill – Stanford
LHP Matt Crohan – Winthrop – 9.95 K/9 – 0.47 BB/9 – 2.37 ERA – 19.0 IP
RHP Zach Jackson – Arkansas – 11.71 K/9 – 5.12 BB/9 – 2.19 ERA – 12.1 IP
RHP Robert Tyler – Georgia – 13.94 K/9 – 1.69 BB/9 – 3.38 ERA – 21.1 IP
LHP Garrett Williams – Oklahoma State

I really liked Keith Law’s Ryan Madson comp for Tyler. I’m high enough on Tyler to modify that and use it as a potential MLB floor because I think Tyler has a better chance to continue developing a good enough breaking ball to go through a lineup multiple times.

The relative struggles of some of the top college pitchers in this class leave the door wide open for a guy like Quantrill coming back from injury to seriously enter the 1-1 conversation.

C Matt Thaiss – Virginia – .361/.473/.541 – 12 BB/1 K – 0/1 SB – 61 AB
1B Carmen Beneditti – Michigan – .298/.452/.426 – 10 BB/4 K – 3/4 SB – 47 AB
2B Cavan Biggio – Notre Dame – .229/.448/.313 – 17 BB/10 K – 4/4 SB – 48 AB
SS Colby Woodmansee – Arizona State – .370/.486/.630 – 14 BB/9 K – 1/1 SB – 54 AB
3B Lucas Erceg – Menlo (CA) – .342/.378/.685 – 5 BB/6 K – 0 SB – 111 AB
OF Ryan Boldt – Nebraska – .318/.382/.424 – 6 BB/8 K – 7/12 SB – 66 AB
OF Stephen Wrenn – Georgia – .353/.424/.471 – 5 BB/9 K – 4/7 SB – 51 AB
OF Ronnie Dawson – Ohio State – .263/.354/.509 – 8 BB/9 K – 3/4 SB – 57 AB

Love Thaiss. Loved Biggio, but starting to re-calibrate my expectations a little. Same for Boldt. Never loved Woodmansee, but I’m beginning to get it. Erceg’s start confuses me. It’s excellent, obviously, but the numbers reflect a high-contact approach that doesn’t show up in any of the scouting notes on him. Consider my curiosity piqued.

LHP Eric Lauer – Kent State – 8.05 K/9 – 4.02 BB/9 – 1.82 ERA – 24.2 IP
RHP Michael Shawaryn – Maryland – 7.04 K/9 – 3.33 BB/9 – 3.33 ERA – 24.1 IP
RHP Daulton Jefferies – California – 11.42 K/9 – 1.73 BB/9 – 1.04 ERA – 26.0 IP
RHP Kyle Serrano – Tennessee – 3.2 IP
RHP Kyle Funkhouser – Louisville – 8.77 K/9 – 5.34 BB/9 – 4.18 ERA – 23.2 IP

When I re-do the college rankings (coming soon!), I think this is where we’ll see some serious movers and shakers. Things are wide open after the top eight or so pitchers as the conversation shifts move towards high-floor fourth/fifth starters rather than top half of the rotation possibilities. I’ve read and heard some of the Jefferies top half of the first round buzz, and I’ve been slow to buy in so far. I like him a lot, but that feels rich. Then I remember that Mike Leake climbed as high as eighth overall back in my first draft doing this, so anything is possible.

Now for some prospects that weren’t on the preseason teams that has caught my eye so far…

Logan Shore – Florida – 9.33 K/9 – 0.67 BB/9 – 2.00 ERA – 27.0 IP
Jordan Sheffield – Vanderbilt – 13.17 K/9 – 2.56 BB/9 – 1.09 ERA – 24.2 IP
Corbin Burnes – St. Mary’s – 11.20 K/9 – 2.32 BB/9 – 3.09 ERA – 23.1 IP
Bailey Clark – Duke – 10.50 K/9 – 2.63 BB/9 – 3.38 ERA – 24.0 IP

I’ve been slow to appreciate Sheffield, but I’m on board now. My lazy but potentially prescient comp to Dillon Tate is something I can’t shake. Clark vs Zach Jackson is a fun head-to-head prospect battle that pits two of my favorite raw arms with questions about long-term role holding them back.

Nick Solak – Louisville – .434/.563/.585 – 15 BB/5 K – 6/6 SB – 53 AB
Bryson Brigman – San Diego – .424/.472/.515 – 3 BB/4 K – 5/7 SB – 33 AB
Stephen Alemais – Tulane – .462/.477/.641 – 3 BB/6 K – 4/5 SB – 39 AB
Jake Rogers – Tulane – .302/.471/.547 – 13 BB/11 K – 5/5 SB – 53 AB
Errol Robinson – Mississippi – .226/.317/.358 – 7 BB/8 K – 2/2 SB – 53 AB
Logan Ice – Oregon State – .463/.520/1.024 – 5 BB/1 K – 0/0 SB – 41 AB
Trever Morrison – Oregon State – .400/.456/.600 – 5 BB/12 K – 0/1 SB – 50 AB

Solak’s start is a thing of beauty. Rogers and Ice add to the impressive depth at the top of the catching class. It’ll be interesting to see which C/SS combo gets drafted higher between Oregon State and Tulane.

1-1

I really like Zack Collins, Will Craig, Pete Alonso, Nick Senzel, Bryan Reynolds, and Jake Fraley. Garrett Williams, Eric Lauer, Mike Shawaryn, Daulton Jefferies, Bailey Clark, and the Kyle’s (Funkhouser, Serrano, and Cody) are all pretty great, too. Delvin Perez, Josh Lowe, Nolan Jones, Mickey Moniak, and Blake Rutherford all could be high school hitters that realistically enter the 1-1 conversation. Ian Anderson, Kevin Gowdy, Alex Speas, and Forrest Whitley, among others, could join the race as well. All, however, are a tier below the group of players I feel currently have the best shot to go 1-1 to the Philadelphia Phillies this June. With apologies to all the aforementioned names — one of those guys is going to fall to the second round or later, by the way…that’s crazy! — the focus here is on the early front-runners to go 1-1 . Let’s see what they’ve been up to lately…

Jay Groome has been my stated preference since last summer. Performance-wise, I’m not sure if Groome can lose the top spot between now and June. He looked great during his workout at Maplezone in beautiful Garnet Valley — located a very convenient 21 miles from my apartment — and figures to show the premium stuff (mid-90s FB, plus mid-70s kCB, rapidly improving CU) and “extras” (beautiful delivery/command/frame) all spring. That leaves major injury (Brady Aiken 2.0) or the ascent of one of the players listed on this very page (or somebody unlisted, but if that’s the case then I really haven’t done my job here) being the realistic avenues to knock Groome off the 1-1 perch.

Groome’s co-headliner in the high school class is Riley Pint for me. I know there are questions about a prep righthander going first overall (silliness, I think) and questions about his delivery and command making an eventual move to the bullpen a necessity (fair, but up for debate yet), but there’s still so much to like about him that I can’t see him leaving the potential 1-1 tier any time soon.

I have a hard time separating the three top college outfielders, so spring performances will weigh heavy on on evaluators minds as they decide on nailing down a proper order of Kyle Lewis, Buddy Reed, and Corey Ray. My semi-fearless prediction: for as much hype — deservedly — as those three outfielders have gotten to date, they won’t wind up as the first three outfielders drafted this June. Maybe that’s not particularly bold considering we’re talking three high variance outcome prospects, but I can see a future where one blows up this spring (Lewis or Reed), one struggles relative to expectations (Reed?), and one remains more or less where he was in the eyes of most teams when the season started.

Kyle Lewis had a very good weekend. Buddy Reed had a less good weekend. Corey Ray was on an different planet altogether. In a whopping three-game sample, Ray hit .667/.714/1.444. I keep mistyping his SLG for the weekend because I’m not used to typing anything with a digit in front of the decimal. If his performance with the bat wasn’t enough, Ray chipped in with six (six!) stolen bases in six tries. We won’t get carried away with one weekend’s worth of games, but that’s not a bad way to get things started, especially for the guy with the most to prove on-field out of the three. That last bit is obviously debatable, but there’s a school of thought that says Ray should be the best present performer out of the three considering he has the most limited physical projection of the trio. I’m not sure that’s entirely fair — punishing Ray by expecting more now seems a bit counterproductive if the aim is projecting his future — but maybe there’s something to it. Either way, I think the jumble of guys in contention for 1-1 leaves things wide open enough for any of these three to rise up to that level; for now, Ray’s loud opening weekend helps him takes the lead.

If Ray’s opening weekend was loud, then what does that make Alec Hansen‘s? The less said about Hansen’s hushed debut, the better. His 22 ball/14 strike performance included four walks, one wild pitch, and one poor plunked hitter. One bad start wouldn’t be too concerning in the big picture (still isn’t, really), but on the heels of a fall season marred by a sore forearm…I don’t know. Maybe we laugh about this come June when a healthy Hansen is the top ten pick his talent warrants…or maybe he’s this year’s Michael Matuella.

Matt Krook and AJ Puk are the top two lefties in this college class, so it works out quite nicely that the two of them had such similar 2016 debuts. My non-scout view on Puk hasn’t changed much since he’s debuted as a Gator: he’s an excellent prospect who has always left me wanting after seeing him pitch up close. I wasn’t up close this past weekend, but I did check out his start against Florida Gulf Coast via the magic of the internet. Again, for all of Puk’s strengths he’s still not the kind of college prospect that gives off that 1-1 vibe when watching him. Even when he was cruising — 11 pitch first inning, 19 total pitches through two (15 strikes), and a 1-2-3 swinging strikeout to end the second that went slider, fastball, change — it was still on a very fastball-heavy approach with little evident feel for his offspeed stuff. His slider picked up from there and he mixed in a few nice changeups, but neither offering looked like a potential big league out-pitch.

In the third inning his defense let him down — literally and figuratively, as he made one of the two errors in the inning — but what really hurt him was his command falling apart. These are all players learning on the job so I don’t want to sound too negative, but he failed to locate an 0-2 pitch and that was what really led to his undoing. On the plus side, his velocity was good for a first start (90-94, 96 peak), his delivery looks better, the aforementioned handful of nice changeups were encouraging, and he responded really well in the fourth inning after losing his way in the third. I still struggle with his underdeveloped offspeed stuff, inconsistent command, and puzzling lack of athleticism (where did it go from HS?), but 6-7, 225 pound lefthanders who can hit 96 (98 at times last year) are worth being patient with.

With Pat Gillick, Johnny Almaraz, and two other scouts in attendance, the Phillies, owners of the first pick in this year’s draft, were well-represented in Gainesville over the weekend. Much has been made of this and rightly so as the Gators are stacked, obviously, though I’m sure it didn’t hurt that they only had to ride 2.5 hours north from Clearwater. They obviously have heavy interest in Puk and will have plenty of opportunities to get to know him inside and out as the spring progresses.

Meanwhile, Krook matched Puk in innings (4), hits (4), and strikeouts (6). While shaky glovework and command did Puk in, Krook’s issue was iffy control. Three walks, two wild pitches, and one hit batter ended his day early, but some rust was to be expected as he continues the comeback path from Tommy John surgery. No worries here.

Speaking of returning from Tommy John surgery, Cal Quantrill is still on the way back from his procedure. I really think he could pitch his way into the 1-1 conversation once healthy.

The two best 1-1 candidate performances came from Connor Jones and Robert Tyler. Both young righthanders faced only one batter over the minimum in their respective seven and five inning debuts. Tyler stole most of the headlines with his dominant performance on Friday. His win came against a weak Georgia Southern lineup — I like Ryan Cleveland, but there’s not a ton there otherwise — but striking out the last ten batters you face in a given outing is something. I’m 100% buying what Connor Jones — the Virginia one, not Tyler’s lefthanded Georgia teammate — is selling. I’ve mentioned it before, but I get an unusually high number of comps on him from enthusiastic scouts. My hunch is that it has something to do with his exciting mix of ceiling (number two starter?) and certainty (very polished, very professional) that gets those guys going. I still love the cross-cultural Masahiro Tanaka comp for him.

Dakota Hudson quietly pitched well in his debut. Matt Crohan did the same, but with an interesting fly ball tendency that could be worth tracking. Both are longer shots to crash the 1-1 party, but I have them on the board for a reason. One guy who might need to move off the board is Zach Jackson. His slip has nothing to do with talent — I’ve said it before, but his curve might be the best singular pitch in this class — but more about the logistics of trying to scout him this spring. As the only present college reliever on this list, it’s a guessing game as to whether or not you’ll see him in any given outing. That’s a damn shame because developmentally Jackson could really use innings to improve both his delivery and command, but Arkansas has to do what Arkansas has to do, I suppose. It could wind up costing Jackson a pretty penny, unfortunately. For now, I think he’s not a realistic 1-1 candidate due to the (rightful) fear of the unknown.

Everything written above is based largely on what my board would look like if I was holding the first pick in June. Below is my best guess — remember, I know nothing — as to what the Phillies could be thinking about that first pick as of now. Players are separated into four potential tiers…

Groome
Pint – Puk – Hansen – Ray
Jones – Quantrill – Lewis
Tyler – Reed

I think Groome is the lean as of today with Pint, Puk, and Ray all close behind. Hansen is right there, but it’ll take a clean bill of health to solidify that spot. Jones is an interesting case as a prospect who has been on the radar nationally for years, but still entered his college draft year underrated by many. The Phillies have only drafted one player from the University of Virginia since 2010 (Neal Davis), but they have leaned on their area guys in that part of the country more recently, especially when picking out of Virginia Tech. I certainly wouldn’t rule him out right now, especially if you buy the talk — I don’t — that the Phillies want a quick-mover to help accelerate their rebuild timeline. If Puk doesn’t dominate and Hansen remains injured/ineffective, then somebody will have to rise up as a potential college threat to the Groome’s and Pint’s of the world, right? If not Jones, maybe it’ll be Quantrill, son of former Phillie Paul, once he gets right. Should be fun.

2016 College Prospect All-American Teams

Now that football has wrapped up and the D1 college season is just eleven short days away, I think it’s time to come out of my semi-planned hibernation of the past few weeks. Time away from posting hasn’t meant time away from baseball draft work; quite the contrary, really. My college prep work is finally complete and my college notes Word document now stretches 186 pages and 129,856 words. Finding a way to turn those notes into something worth reading is the challenge we’ll tackle together these next two weeks. I have no concrete plan as to how I want to get the information I’ve accumulated out there, so any and all suggestions as to what you — yes, YOU! — want to see are appreciated. I’ll come up with something otherwise — conference previews? — but I’d rather do something by request…and not just because I don’t have anything pre-written in what could be a busy real life work week otherwise.

Until then, here are my (first annual?) College Prospect All-American Teams. The name says it all, but just in case…College PROSPECT All-American Teams. For the purpose of these teams, we care only about who will wind up the best professional prospects come June. Let’s do it…

First Team

C Zack Collins – Miami
1B Will Craig – Wake Forest
2B Nick Senzel – Tennessee
SS Michael Paez – Coastal Carolina
3B Bobby Dalbec – Arizona
OF Kyle Lewis – Mercer
OF Buddy Reed – Florida
OF Corey Ray – Louisville

RHP Alec Hansen – Oklahoma
LHP Matt Krook – Oregon
RHP Connor Jones – Virginia
LHP AJ Puk – Florida
RHP Dakota Hudson – Mississippi State

Filling my pretend team with Collins, Craig, Senzel, Dalbec, and the outfielders were pretty easy for me at this point. I love (Collins, Craig, Senzel, Lewis) or like (Dalbec, Reed, Ray) all of them as first round talents this June, though even getting three of them (I’ll guess two of the outfielders and Dalbec as the wild card) into the first thirty or so picks is probably more realistic knowing how I tend to value certain types different than actual scouting directors might. Fans of teams picking in the top ten dreaming of a quick fix college bat should follow all of them, but with the clear understanding that every single name there (save Craig) has a lot to prove this spring at the plate, especially in the strike zone discipline/approach facets of the game. I’m too lazy to do the math, but I’m pretty sure there is about 3,241 (rough estimate) strikeouts combined courtesy of those hitters. Paez is probably the name that jumps out for many, but it’s a really shallow year for college shortstops…and Paez is pretty damn good. More on him in the coming weeks.

There’s so much college pitching in this year’s class that there’s even less of a chance of coming up with a “right” order of players than usual. Like many, I love the healthy versions of both Hansen and Krook, so their placement on top of the rankings mountain is a bet on continued good health from right this second to early June. Jones was my top college player last March when I made a list like this, but I dropped him to seventh college pitcher on my most recent update in October. Without realizing it until now, it appears I’ve split the difference (more or less) with his current placement in the three spot. I still can’t get enough of that Masahiro Tanaka comp I heard for him. Puk is such a good prospect that I don’t feel too bad in nitpicking him here by pointing out his inconsistent secondaries (unlike the others listed, I haven’t seen a reliable plus offspeed pitch from him yet), up-and-down control, and good but not great athleticism. The fact that he can have all of those question marks — all very fixable issues, it’s worth noting — and still rank so highly says something about how overwhelming his strengths are. Hudson is all upside at this point; he reminds me of Taijuan Walker in more than a few ways.

Second Team

C Sean Murphy – Wright State
1B Pete Alonso – Florida
2B JaVon Shelby – Kentucky
SS Logan Gray – Austin Peay State
3B Sheldon Neuse – Oklahoma
OF Bryan Reynolds – Vanderbilt
OF Jake Fraley – Louisiana State
OF Nick Banks – Texas A&M

RHP Cal Quantrill – Stanford
LHP Matt Crohan – Winthrop
RHP Zach Jackson – Arkansas
RHP Robert Tyler – Georgia
LHP Garrett Williams – Oklahoma State

I could see a lot of the guys on this team outperforming their first team counterparts over the long haul. There’s a little more certainty with some of the names, but not quite the same degree of upside. Murphy, arguably the draft’s best two-way catcher, stands out as an example of this. You could also probably lump Reynolds and Fraley in the category, especially when compared to fellow SEC-er Buddy Reed.

From talking to smart people around the game lately, I think I might wind up the high guy on Crohan. I see a lefty with size, velocity, athleticism, and a nasty cut-slider. I also see a guy who does a lot of the same things AJ Puk does well, but with far less hype. One of my favorite snippets of my notes comes in the Jackson section: “if he fixes delivery and command, watch out.” Well, duh. I could have said that about just about any upper-echelon arm in this age demographic. With Jackson, however, it reinforces just how special his stuff is when he’s right. I don’t think this college class has a pitch better than his curveball at its best.

Third Team

C Matt Thaiss – Virginia
1B Carmen Beneditti – Michigan
2B Cavan Biggio – Notre Dame
SS Colby Woodmansee – Arizona State
3B Lucas Erceg – Menlo (CA)
OF Ryan Boldt – Nebraska
OF Stephen Wrenn – Georgia
OF Ronnie Dawson – Ohio State

LHP Eric Lauer – Kent State
RHP Michael Shawaryn – Maryland
RHP Daulton Jefferies – California
RHP Kyle Serrano – Tennessee
RHP Kyle Funkhouser – Louisville

There are too many good players and far too spots. Leaving out some of this year’s catching class breaks my heart, but ultimately I’m more excited at the ridiculous depth at that spot than at any pretend tough decision I had to make on what will turn out to be a meaningless list anyway. Second base wound up a tougher call than I expected when trying to weigh the relative pros and cons of Biggio, Nate Mondou, Bryson Brigman (who might be a worthwhile SS after all), Kyle Fiala, Nick Solak, and Ryne Birk. Woodmansee felt like the right choice over a few other deserving peers, but it wouldn’t surprise me if a trio I didn’t select (Daniel Pinero, Stephen Alemais, Ryan Howard OR Errol Robinson, Trever Morrison, Eli White) wound up the better bet by June. I had originally planned to make this a D1 only list, but figured the more the merrier so Erceg, the Cal transfer, got the call. That’s partly because I really like Erceg (as both a hitter and a pitcher, though I think I’m in the minority who prefers him currently with the bat) and partly because the pickings at third base are slim. Three of the next four names under consideration at the hot corner are draft-eligible sophomores: Greg Deichmann, Will Toffey, and Blake Tiberi. Beneditti, the choice at first over a similarly lackluster field, is also a two-way player who many prefer on the mound long-term. I liken him to a better Brian Johnson, the former Gator and current Red Sox lefthander. In a fun twist, I preferred Johnson as a hitter as well back in the day.

The similarities between Shawaryn and Jefferies are uncanny. Both guys should rank among the quickest movers in this year’s college starting pitching class once they make the move to pro ball. Pitchers considered who just missed the cut were numerous, but a few fun names include Corbin Burnes, Jake Elliott, Bailey Clark, and John Kilichowski, my personal favorite of the many outstanding Vanderbilt arms.

2016 MLB Draft Preview – College Prospects

I don’t typically get into rankings this early in the process because doing it the right way as a research/writing staff of one takes me literally hundreds of hours. Realistically putting together what I feel is representative of my better stuff just hasn’t been possible in the past unless I pushed other micro baseball projects — for the site and elsewhere — aside and instead looked took the time to cover a nation’s worth of prospects on the macro level. Having a draft site that spends more time on players on the fringes who may or may not wind up drafted at all while failing to address the prospects at the top of the food chain seems a bit silly, so I’m trying to balance things out a little bit better this year. There will still be lots of the usual draft minutiae I enjoy so much, but a rededicated focus on the draft’s first day just makes sense. With all of this in mind I put other baseball duties on hold for the last ten or so days to put this list together. It’s imperfect, but I like it as a starting point. Some notes on what you’ll see below…

*** I didn’t include any non-D1 players at this point because I haven’t yet had the time to go as deep into other levels of competition and junior college ball just yet. Nick Shumpert would have made the top fifty for sure. Lucas Erceg likely would have been considered.  After a quick skim of my notes, I’d say Kep Brown, Tekwaan Whyte, Ryan January, Ethan Skender, Liam Scafariello, Jesus Gamez, Curtis Taylor, Willie Rios, Shane Billings, Brett Morales, Hunter Tackett, Devin Smeltzer, and Tyson Miller would be just a few of the names also in the mix for me right now. I said it a lot last year, but it bears repeating: I’d love to find the time/energy to go deeper with non-D1 baseball this year. The finite number of hours I have to devote to this site might get in the way, but I’m going to try.

*** This is going to sound bad and I apologize in advance, but I don’t believe I left anybody off that I intended to include. It’s possible, of course, but I don’t think that’s the case here. A ton of really, really good prospects, many of whom will be future big league players, didn’t make the cut as of yet. It’s not personal, obviously. I would have loved to include any player that even remotely interested me, but I had to have a cut-off point somewhere. If you think I whiffed on somebody, I’m happy to listen. Reasonable minds can disagree.

*** There is no consensus top player in this college class. The hitter at the top could wind up out of the first round by June. The top pitcher listed has medical red flags reminiscent of Michael Matuella last season. And — SPOILER ALERT — the top overall player in this class isn’t included on the list below. There are players ranked in the twenties that may be in your top five and there are players in the thirties that may not crack somebody else’s top seventy-five. It’s a fun year that way.

*** If I had to predict what player will actually go number one this June, I’d piggy-back on what others have already said and put my vote in for AJ Puk. The Phillies are my hometown team and while I’m not as well-connected to their thinking as I am with a few other teams, based on the snippets of behind the scenes things I’ve heard (not much considering it’s October, but it’s not like they aren’t thinking about it yet) and the common sense reporting elsewhere (they lean towards a quick-moving college player, preferably a pitcher) all point to Puk. He’s healthy, a good kid (harmless crane climbing incident aside), and a starting pitcher all the way. Puk joining Alfaro, Knapp, Crawford, Franco, Williams, Quinn, Herrera, Altherr, Nola, Thompson, Eickhoff, Eflin, and Giles by September 2017 makes for a pretty intriguing cost-controlled core.

*** The words that go along with the rankings are a bit more positive than what long-time readers might be used to. My early take is that this appears to be an above-average draft, but a friend who saw an early draft (no pun intended) of this told me that 2016 must be an incredibly talented group of amateurs. He said that reading through led him to believe that every pitcher is a future big league starter and every hitter is a future above-average regular. Guilty. I admit that I generally skew positive at this site (elsewhere…not so much) because I like baseball, enjoy focusing on what young players do well, and believe highlighting the good can help grow the college game, but being fair is always the ultimate goal. That said, there will be plenty of time to get deeper into each prospect’s individual strengths and weaknesses over the next seven or so months. In October a little extra dose of positivity is nice.

With no further ado, here are the 2016 MLB Draft’s top fifty prospects (with a whole lot more names to know beyond that)…

(Fine, just a bit more ado: A very rough HS list and maybe a combined overall ranking will come after Jupiter…)

  1. Mercer JR OF Kyle Lewis

The popular comp for Lewis has been Alfonso Soriano (originated at D1 Baseball, I believe), but I see more of Yasiel Puig in his game. He’s an honest five-tool player with a rapidly improving approach at the plate. There’s still some roughness around the edges there, but if it clicks then he’s a monster. There’s obvious risk in the profile, but it’s easy to be excited by somebody who legitimately gets better with every watch.

  1. Oklahoma JR RHP Alec Hansen

Hansen would rank first overall (college, not overall) if not for some recent reports of forearm troubles. His injury history probably should have been enough to temper enthusiasm for his nasty stuff (huge FB and chance for two plus offspeed pitches), but the upside is just that exciting. The popular Gerrit Cole makes sense as Hansen is a big guy (6-7, 235) with outstanding athleticism who holds his plus velocity late into games.

  1. Florida JR OF Buddy Reed

Reed’s relative newness to playing the game full-time makes his already considerable upside all the more intriguing. More reps against quality pitching could turn the dynamic center fielder (plus range, plus speed, plus arm) into the top overall pick.

  1. Oregon rSO LHP Matt Krook

This may be a touch more speculative that some of the other names on the list since Krook missed the 2015 season after Tommy John surgery, but I’m buying all the Krook shares I can right now. He came back and impressed on the Cape enough to warrant consideration as a potential 1-1 riser. There’s no squaring up his fastball and there’s more than enough offspeed (CB and CU) to miss bats (12 K/9 in 45 freshman innings). He’s not as physical as AJ Puk, but the more advanced secondaries give him the edge for now.

  1. Florida JR LHP/1B AJ Puk

Extension, deception, and power would be three words that come immediately to mind when describing Puk. He’s every bit of 6-7, 225 with a delivery that hides the ball damn well. His power comes both with his left arm (92-96, 98 peak) and at the plate (he’d quickly be among the better hitting pitchers in the game), so it’s no big shock that some guy on the internet (that’s me) sees some similarities between him and the prospect version of Madison Bumgarner.

  1. Wake Forest JR 1B/RHP Will Craig

Do you like power? How about patience? What about a guy with power, patience, and the athleticism to pull off collegiate two-way duty? For everybody who missed on AJ Reed the first time around, Will Craig is here to give you a second chance. I won’t say he’ll be the first base prospect that finally tests how high a first base prospect can go in a post-PED draft landscape, but if he has a big enough junior season…

  1. Louisville JR OF Corey Ray

If you prefer Ray to Lewis and Reed, you’re not wrong. They are all different flavors of a similar overall quality. Like those guys, Ray can do enough of everything well on the diamond to earn the much coveted label of “five-tool player.” The most enthusiastic comp I got from him was a “more compact Kirk Gibson.” That’s a thinker.

  1. Arkansas JR RHP Zach Jackson

We’ll know a lot more about Buddy Reed (and other SEC hitters) by June after he runs the gauntlet of SEC pitching. In addition to teammate AJ Puk, I’ve got three other SEC arms with realistic top ten draft hopes. Jackson’s chance for rising up to the 1-1 discussion depends almost entirely on his delivery and command. If those two things can be smoothed out this spring — they often go hand-in-hand — then his fastball (90-94, 96 peak), curve (deadly), and change (inconsistent but very promising) make him a potential top of the rotation starting pitcher.

  1. Georgia JR RHP Robert Tyler

Just about everything said about Jackson can be said about Tyler. The Georgia righthander has the bigger fastball (90-96, 100 peak) and his two offspeed pitches are flip-flopped (love the change, still tinkering with his spike curve), so getting his delivery worked out enough to convince onlookers that he can hold up over 30 plus starts a year could make him the first college arm off the board.

  1. Mississippi State JR RHP Dakota Hudson

Hudson is the biggest mystery man out of the SEC Four Horsemen (TM pending…with apologies to all the Vandy guys and Kyle Serrano) because buying on him is buying a largely untested college reliever (so far) with control red flags and a limited overall track record. Those are all fair reasons to doubt him right now, but when Hudson has it working there are few pitchers who look more dominant. His easy plus 86-92 cut-slider is right up there with Jackson’s curve as one of the best breaking balls in the entire class.

  1. Tennessee JR 2B/3B Nick Senzel

Arguably the safest of this year’s potential first round college bats, Senzel has electric bat speed, a patient approach, and as good a hit tool as any player listed. His defensive gifts are almost on that same level and his power upside separates him from the rest of what looks like a pretty intriguing overall college group of second basemen.

  1. Notre Dame JR 2B/3B Cavan Biggio

Without having seen every Notre Dame game the past two years — I’m good, but not that good — one might be confused as to how a player with Biggio’s pedigree and collection of scouting accolades (“line drive machine; born to hit; great pitch recognition; great approach, patient and aggressive all at once”…and that’s just what has been written here) could hit .250ish through two college seasons. I say we all agree to chalk it up to bad BABIP luck and eagerly anticipate a monster junior season that puts him squarely back in the first round mix where he belongs.

  1. Nebraska JR OF Ryan Boldt

World Wide Wes said it best: “You can’t chase the night.” Of course that doesn’t stop me from trying to chase missed players from previous draft classes. Nobody was talking about Andrew Benintendi last year at this time — in part because of the confusion that comes with draft-eligible true sophomores, but still — so attempting to get a head-start on the “next Benintendi” seems like a thing to do. As a well-rounded center fielder with a sweet swing and impressive plate coverage, Boldt could be that guy.

  1. Vanderbilt JR OF/1B Bryan Reynolds

CTRL C “Ryan Boldt paragraph”, CTRL V “Ryan Boldt paragraph.” Reynolds also reminds me somewhat of Kyle Lewis in the way that both guys have rapidly improved their plate discipline in ways that haven’t yet shown up consistently on the stat sheet. If or when it does, Reynolds could join Lewis as a potential future impact big league outfielder.

  1. Virginia JR RHP Connor Jones

Jones, the number one guy on a list designed to serve the same purpose as the one created over seven months ago, hasn’t actually done anything to slip this far down the board; competition at the top this year is just that fierce. I like guys with fastballs that move every which way but straight, so Jones’s future looks bright from here. His mid-80s splitter has looked so good at times that he’s gotten one of my all-time favorite cross-culture comps: Masahiro Tanaka.

  1. Stanford JR RHP Cal Quantrill

A case could be made that Quantrill is the most complete, pro-ready college arm in this year’s class. The fact that one could make that claim even after losing almost an entire season of development speaks to the kind of mature talent we’re talking about. Pitchability is a nebulous thing that isn’t easy to pin down, but you know it when you see it. Quantrill has it. He also has a plus changeup and a fastball with serious giddy-up.

  1. Virginia JR C Matt Thaiss

Comps aren’t everybody’s cup of tea, but I’ve always defended them because they provide the needed frame of reference for prospects to gain some modicum of public recognition and leap past the indignity of being known only as soulless, nameless abstract ideas on a page until they have the good fortune of reaching the big leagues. Matt Thaiss played HS ball not too far off from where I live, so I saw him a few times before he packed things up and headed south to Virginia. I never could find the words to describe him just right to friends who were curious as to why I’d drive over an hour after work to see a random high school hitter. It wasn’t until Baseball America dropped a Brian McCann comp on him that they began to understand. You can talk about his power upside, mature approach, and playable defense all you want, but there’s something extra that crystallizes in your mind when a player everybody knows enters the conversation. Nobody with any sense expects Thaiss to have a carbon copy of McCann’s excellent professional career, but the comp gives you some general idea of what style of player is being discussed.

  1. Clemson JR C Chris Okey

Okey doesn’t have quite the same thunder in his bat as Thaiss, but his strong hands, agile movements behind the plate, and average or better arm give him enough ammo to be in the mix for first college catching off the board. The days of the big, strong-armed, plus power, and questionable contact catcher seem to be dwindling as more and more teams appear willing to go back to placing athleticism atop their list of desired attributes for young catching prospects. Hard to say that’s wrong based on where today’s speed and defense style of game looks like it’s heading.

  1. California JR RHP Daulton Jefferies

To have Jefferies, maybe my favorite draft-eligible college pitcher to watch, this low says way more about the quality at the top of this year’s class then his long-term pro ability. Jefferies brings three potential above-average to plus pitches to the mound on any given night. I like the D1 Baseball comparison to Walker Buehler, last year’s 24th overall pick. Getting Jefferies in a similar spot this year would be something to be excited about.

  1. LSU JR OF Jake Fraley

In a class with potential superstars like Lewis, Reed, and Ray roaming outfields at the top, it would be easy to overlook Fraley, a tooled-up center fielder with lightning in his wrists, an unusually balanced swing, and the patient approach of a future leadoff hitter. Do so at your own discretion. Since I started the site in 2009 there’s been at least one LSU outfielder drafted every year. That includes five top-three round picks (Mitchell, Landry, Mahtook, Jones, and Stevenson) in seven classes. Outfielder U seems poised to keep the overall streak alive and make the top three round run a cool six out of eight in 2016.

  1. Vanderbilt rSO RHP Jordan Sheffield

It’s a lazy comp, sure, but the possibility that Sheffield could wind up as this year’s Dillon Tate has stuck with me for almost a full calendar year. He’s undersized yet athletic and well-built enough to handle a starter’s workload, plus he has the three pitches (FB, CU, CB) to get past lineups multiple times. If his two average-ish offspeed that flash above-average to plus can more consistently get there, he’s a potential top ten guy no matter his height.

  1. Wright State JR C Sean Murphy

Watching Murphy do his thing behind the plate is worth the price of admission alone. We’re talking “Queen Bee” level arm strength, ample lateral quicks on balls in the dirt, and dependable hands with an ever-improving ability to frame borderline pitches. He’s second in the class behind Jake Rogers defensively — not just as a catcher, but arguably at any position — but with enough bat (unlike Rogers) to project as a potential above-average all-around regular in time. I expect the battle for top college catching prospect to be closely contested all year with Thaiss, Okey, and Murphy all taking turns atop team-specific draft boards all spring long.

  1. Texas A&M JR OF Nick Banks

If you’ve ever wondered what the right field prototype looked liked, take a gander at the star outfielder in College Station. The combination of speed, strength, power, and one of the country’s most accurate and formidable outfield arms make taking the chance on him continuing to figure things out as a hitter well worth a potential first round pick.

  1. Tennessee JR RHP Kyle Serrano

Serrano is the second guy on this list that reminds me of Walker Buehler from last year, though I still like my own Jarrod Parker comp best. He’s transitioned into more of a sinker/slider pitcher as he’s refined his breaking ball and lost some feel for his change over the years, but as a firm believer in the idea that once you have a skill you own it forever I remain intrigued as to how good he could be once he learns to effectively harness his changeup once again.

  1. Kentucky JR 2B/OF JaVon Shelby

In yet another weird example of an odd comp that I haven’t been able to shake all year, there’s something about JaVon Shelby’s game that takes me back to watching Ian Happ at Cincinnati. Maybe the offensive game isn’t as far along at similar developmental points, but Shelby’s odds at sticking in the dirt have always been higher.

  1. Miami JR 1B/C Zack Collins

If I had more confidence that Collins could play regularly behind the plate at the highest level, he’s shoot up the board ten spots (minimum) in a hurry. He’s a fastball-hunting power-hitting force of nature at the plate with the potential for the kind of prodigious home run blasts that make Twitter lose control of its collective mind. I stand by the Travis Hafner ceiling comp from last December.

  1. Arizona JR 3B Bobby Dalbec

The good popular comp here is Troy Glaus. The less good comp that I’ve heard is Chris Dominguez. The truth, as it so often does, will likely fall in the middle somewhere.

  1. Georgia JR OF Stephen Wrenn

Wrenn is a burner who has looked good enough in center field at times that you wonder if he could handle all three outfield spots by himself at the same time. He’s an athletic outfielder who remains raw at the plate despite two years of regular playing time — making him seemingly one of forty-five of the type in this year’s top fifty — so you’re gambling on skills catching up to the tools. The fact that his glove alone will get him to the big leagues mitigates some of the risk with his bat.

  1. Winthrop JR LHP Matt Crohan

Premium fastball velocity from the left side is always a welcomed sight. Crohan can get it up to the upper-90s (sits 90-94) with a pair of worthwhile offspeed pitches (mid-80s cut-slider and a slowly improving change). He’s got the size, command, and smarts to pitch in a big league rotation for a long time.

  1. Louisville SR RHP Kyle Funkhouser

Much electronic ink was spilled on Funkhouser last season, so I’ll be brief: he’s good. It’s unclear how good — I’d say more mid-rotation than ace, but reasonable minds may disagree — but he’s good. Of the many comps I threw out for him last year my favorite remains Jordan Zimmermann. If he can up his command and control game like Zimmermann, then he could hit that mid-rotation ceiling and keep pushing upwards.

  1. Louisville JR RHP Zack Burdi

Of all the rankings outside of the top ten, this is the one that could make me look dumbest by June. Burdi is a really tough evaluation for him right now because even after multiple years of being on the prospect stage it’s unclear (to me, at least) what role will eventually lead to him maximizing his ability. I’m reticent to throw him in the bullpen right away — many do this because of his last name, I think — because he’s shown the kind of diversity of stuff to stay in a rotation. Whether or not he has the command or consistency remain to be seen. Still, those concerns aren’t all that concerning when your fallback plan means getting to go full-tilt in the bullpen as you unleash a triple-digit fastball on hitters also guarding against two impressive offspeed pitches (CU, SL). It’s almost a win-win for scouting directors at this point. If he has a great spring, then you can believe him in as a starter long-term and grade him accordingly. If there’s still doubt, then you can drop him some but keep a close eye on his slip while being ready to pounce if he falls outside of those first few “don’t screw up or you’re fired” picks. You don’t want to spend a premium pick on a potential reliever, clearly, but if he falls outside of the top twenty picks or so then all of a sudden that backup bullpen plan is good enough to return value on your investment.

  1. Samford JR OF Heath Quinn

Just what this class needed: another outfielder loaded with tools that comes with some question marks about the utility of his big-time power because he’s still learning how to hit against serious pitching.

  1. Miami JR OF Willie Abreu

Nick Banks gets a lot of deserved attention for being a potential early first round pick — somebody even once called him the “right field prototype,” if you can believe it — but Willie Abreu’s tool set is on the same shelf. There’s power, mobility, arm strength, and athleticism to profile as a damn fine regular if it all clicks.

  1. TCU rJR RHP Mitchell Traver

Traver was featured plenty on this site last year as a redshirt-sophomore, so that gives me the chance to rehash the three fun comps I’ve gotten for him over the years: Gil Meche, Nick Masset, and Dustin McGowan. Based on years of doing this — so, entirely anecdotal evidence and not hard data — I’ve found that bigger pitchers (say, 6-6 or taller) have an equal (if not higher) bust rate when compared to the smaller guys (6-0ish) that are typically associated with being higher risk. There are always exceptions and years of scouting biases has created a flawed sample to choose from, but pitching seems like a chore best done for smaller bodies that are easier to consistently contort into the kind of unnatural throwing motions needed to withstand chucking balls 90+ MPH over and over and over again. Maintaining body control, tempo, and command at a certain size can be done, but it sure as heck isn’t easy. Like almost everybody, I see a big pitcher and get excited because with size also often comes velocity, extension, and the intangible intimidation factor. Maybe it’s time to start balancing that excitement with some of the known risks that come with oversized pitchers.

  1. Maryland JR RHP Mike Shawaryn

A long draft season could change this, but Shawaryn looks all the world to be a rock solid bet to wind up a mid-rotation big league starting pitcher. Never a star, but consistently useful for years going forward.

  1. Louisiana JR RHP Reagan Bazar

Bazar is one of the bigger gambles to grace this list. He hasn’t done enough yet at Louisiana to warrant such a placement, but when he’s feeling it his stuff (mid- to upper-90s FB, promising low-80s SL) can suffocate even good hitting. Yes, I realize ranking the 6-7, 250+ pound righthander this high undermines a lot of what I said directly above. I’ll always be a sucker for big velocity and Bazar hitting 100+ certainly qualifies.

  1. Rice rSO RHP Jon Duplantier

Athleticism, projection, and wildness currently define Duplantier as a prospect. Key elements or not, those facets of his game shouldn’t obfuscate how strong his big league starter stuff is. That’s a mixed bag of qualities, but there’s clearly more good than bad when it comes to his future.

  1. San Diego SO 2B/SS Bryson Brigman

Middle infielders are always a need for big league clubs, so it only makes sense that the better ones at the amateur level get pushed up ahead of where you might want to first slot them in when simply breaking down tools. The extra credit for Brigman’s smooth fielding action is deserved, as is the acclaim he gets for his mature approach and sneaky pop.

  1. Vanderbilt JR LHP John Kilichowski

Vanderbilt pumps out so much quality pitching that it’s almost boring to discuss their latest and greatest. Kilichowski (and Sheffield and Bowden and Stone) find themselves sandwiched between last year’s special group of arms and a freshman class that includes Donny Everett and Chandler Day. The big lefty has impeccable control, easy velocity (86-92, 94 peak), and the exact assortment of offspeed pitches (CB, SL, and CU, all average or better) needed to keep hitters off-balance in any count. It’s not ace-type stuff, but it’s the kind of overall package that can do damage in the middle of a rotation for a long time.

  1. Oklahoma State JR LHP Garrett Williams

The scene on Friday night for the Hansen/Williams matchup is going to be something special for college ball. Scouts in attendance will likewise be pretty pleased that they can do some one-stop shopping for not only a potential 1-1 guy in Hansen but also a real threat to wind up in the first round in Williams. Continued maturation of Williams’s curve (a weapon already), change (getting there), and control (work in progress) could get him there.

  1. Nevada JR OF/LHP Trenton Brooks

Brooks is a two-way athlete good enough to play center field or keep progressing as a lefthanded reliever with a plus approach and an all-out style of play. How can you not like a guy like that?

  1. Coastal Carolina JR SS/2B Michael Paez

Our first college shortstop, finally. Paez hasn’t yet gotten a lot of national prospect love that I know of, but he’s deserving. He can hit, run, and sneak the occasional ball over the fence all while being steady enough in the field that I don’t know why you’d have to move him off of shortstop. I wouldn’t quite call it a comp, but my appreciate for Paez resembles what I felt about Blake Trahan in last year’s draft.

  1. Oklahoma JR 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse

Neuse could still fulfill the promise many (myself included) saw in him during his excellent freshman season back when he looked like a potential Gold Glove defender at third with the kind of bat you’d happily stick in the middle of the order. He could also get more of a look this spring on the mound where he can properly put his mid-90s heat and promising pair of secondary offerings (SL, CU) to use. Or he could have something of a repeat of his 2015 season leaving us unsure how good he really is and thinking of him more of a second to fifth round project (a super talented one, mind you) than a first round prospect.

  1. Wake Forest JR 2B/OF Nate Mondou

Second basemen with power, feel for hitting, and an idea at the plate are damn useful players. The comp I got a few weeks ago on Mondou is about as topical as it gets: Daniel Murphy.

  1. Kent State JR LHP Eric Lauer

I loved Andrew Chafin as a prospect. Everybody who has been around the Kent State program for a while that I’ve talked to agree that Lauer is better. I can see it: he’s more athletic, has better fastball command, and comes with a cleaner medical history.

  1. Florida JR 1B Pete Alonso

The Gators have so much talent that it’s inevitable that even a top guy or three can lay claim to getting overlooked by the national media. Alonso, with plus bat speed and power to match, is that guy for me. The burgeoning plate discipline is the cherry on top. I’m not in the national media, but maybe I’ll look back and see how I overlooked him as he rises up boards next spring.

  1. Duke JR RHP Bailey Clark

Poised for a big potential rise in 2016, Clark has the kind of stuff that blows you away on his best days and leaves you wanting more on his not so best days. I think he puts it all together this year and makes this ranking look foolish by June.

  1. Louisville JR 2B/OF Nick Solak

The day you find me unwilling to champion a natural born hitter with a preternatural sense of the strike zone is the day I hang up the keyboard. Solak is a tough guy to project because so much of his value is tied up in his bat, but if he build on an already impressive first two seasons at Louisville in 2016 then he might just hit his way into the draft’s top two rounds.

  1. Ohio State JR OF Ronnie Dawson

You could say this about almost any of this year’s upper-echelon of college outfielders, but I saved it specifically for Ronnie Dawson: he’s a big-time prospect from the minute you spot him getting off the bus. He looks more like a baseball destroying cyborg sent from the past to right the wrongs of his fallen brothers who fell victim to offspeed pitches and high fastballs on the regular. Few of his peers can quite match him when it comes to his athleticism, hand-eye coordination, and sheer physical strength. As a member of this year’s college outfield class, however, he’s not immune from having to deal with the open question as to whether or not he can curb his overly aggressive approach at the plate enough to best utilize his raw talents.

  1. Kentucky SR RHP Kyle Cody

As an outsider with no knowledge of how Cody’s negotiations with Minnesota actually went down, I’m still surprised that a fair deal for both sides couldn’t be reached last summer. The big righthander (here we go again…) is what we thought he was: big, righthanded, erratic with his command, and an absolute handful for the opposition when his three pitches (mid-90s FB, average 76-82 kCB that flashes plus, hard CU with average upside) are working. There are no real surprises left in his amateur development, so the leap to the pro game seemed inevitable. Maybe he’s got a trick or two up his sleeve yet…

*****

Best of the rest position players…

  • Austin Peay JR SS/3B Logan Gray
  • College of Charleston JR OF/SS Bradley Jones
  • Oklahoma State JR OF Ryan Sluder
  • Ohio State JR OF Troy Montgomery
  • Virginia JR SS/3B Daniel Pinero
  • Vanderbilt SO 3B/SS Will Toffey
  • Auburn JR OF Anfernee Grier
  • Tulane JR SS Stephen Alemais
  • NC State JR C/3B Andrew Knizner
  • Pacific SR OF Giovanni Brusa
  • Hawaii JR 2B Josh Rojas
  • Wisconsin-Milwaukee rJR SS/3B Eric Solberg
  • Murray State JR C Tyler Lawrence
  • Miami JR OF Jacob Heyward
  • Louisville rSO 3B/SS Blake Tiberi
  • Florida State JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio
  • Illinois SR C Jason Goldstein
  • Texas JR C Tres Barrera
  • Oregon State JR SS Trevor Morrison
  • Missouri JR SS/3B Ryan Howard
  • Mississippi State rSO OF Brent Rooker
  • Stony Brook JR OF Toby Handley
  • Virginia Commonwealth JR OF/2B Logan Farrar
  • Belmont JR SS Tyler Walsh
  • Southern Mississippi SR 1B Tim Lynch
  • Old Dominion JR SS/OF Nick Walker
  • Maryland JR C/1B Nick Cieri
  • Coastal Carolina SO OF Dalton Ewing
  • St. John’s JR OF Michael Donadio
  • Stanford JR SS/2B Tommy Edman
  • Arizona State JR SS/2B Colby Woodmansee
  • Tulane JR C Jake Rogers
  • Texas A&M JR 2B/OF Ryne Birk
  • Mercer JR C Charlie Madden
  • Saint Louis SR 3B Braxton Martinez
  • UC Santa Barbara rJR OF Andrew Calica
  • South Alabama rJR OF/LHP Cole Billingsley
  • USC JR C/1B Jeremy Martinez
  • Texas State JR OF/1B Granger Studdard
  • Bradley JR 3B Spencer Gaa
  • Long Beach State JR SS/2B Garrett Hampson
  • Gonzaga SR 1B/RHP Taylor Jones
  • NC State JR 1B Preston Palmeiro
  • Mississippi State rJR OF Jacob Robson
  • Jacksonville JR OF Austin Hays
  • Louisiana Tech rSR SS/2B Taylor Love
  • Oral Roberts JR C Brent Williams
  • Southeast Missouri State JR OF Dan Holst
  • Dallas Baptist SR OF Daniel Sweet
  • St. John’s SR OF Alex Caruso

*****

Best of the rest pitchers…

  • Vanderbilt JR LHP Ben Bowden
  • Central Michigan JR LHP/1B Nick Deeg
  • Auburn JR RHP/1B Keegan Thompson
  • Georgia JR LHP Connor Jones
  • Illinois JR RHP Cody Sedlock
  • Florida JR RHP Logan Shore
  • Florida JR RHP Dane Dunning
  • Florida JR RHP Shaun Anderson
  • Sacred Heart JR RHP Jason Foley
  • Michigan JR LHP/1B Carmen Beneditti
  • Air Force JR LHP Jacob DeVries
  • St. Mary’s JR RHP Corbin Burnes
  • Albany JR RHP Stephen Woods
  • Indiana rJR RHP Jake Kelzer
  • Oregon JR RHP Stephen Nogosek
  • Connecticut JR LHP Anthony Kay
  • Oregon rJR LHP Cole Irvin
  • Mississippi State JR LHP Daniel Brown
  • Liberty JR RHP/OF Parker Bean
  • Pacific JR RHP Vince Arobio
  • Pittsburgh JR RHP TJ Zeuch
  • Loyola Marymount JR RHP JD Busfield
  • Washington State JR RHP Ian Hamilton
  • Michigan State rJR LHP Cameron Vieaux
  • Michigan JR LHP Brett Adcock
  • Gonzaga JR RHP Brandon Bailey
  • South Carolina JR RHP Wil Crowe