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2018 MLB Draft Profile – North Carolina

No pitcher in the 2018 class at North Carolina has an upside that can match RHP Austin Bergner‘s. Upside is what you get when you come equipped with a big fastball (87-95, up to 97), an inconsistent yet very promising 83-89 MPH changeup, and a solid if unspectacular mid- to upper-70s breaking ball. The ceiling of two plus pitches (and an average one) with the floor of three average ones makes the athletic, deceptive draft-eligible sophomore one of the most intriguing starting pitching prospects in this class. I’ll admit that I’ve long had a strange intuitive feel on Bergner that has warned me away from building up his draft stock too much, but the early jump in strikeout stuff in 2018 (12.52 K/9) has me trying to fight off that pesky gut feeling. Still, his control needs serious fine-tuning and he needs to show that he can handle a starter’s workload over a full season.

RHP Rodney Hutchison has exciting stuff, but has had some difficulties over the years keeping runs off the board. I’ll admit that I’m honestly not so sure how much that last part matters when projecting prospects; in fact, I typically care so little about ERA that I don’t even check it when quickly scanning the college player stat pages. That said, there’s something about Hutchison’s career 4.65 ERA, mostly out of the bullpen, that makes me a little uneasy. The weirdest part here is that a 4.65 ERA isn’t even THAT bad! So what does it bother me here when it wouldn’t for other prospects? It could have something to do with Hutchison lacking dominating peripherals to go with the less than ideal ERA. His 7.94 K/9 and 3.01 BB/9 career numbers are fine enough, but hardly the mark of an elite college relief prospect. Anyway, I know most don’t come here to read about me talking in circles about stats. Hutchison’s stuff is quality. His low-90s fastball (94 peak) moves, his changeup is a clear out pitch (flashes plus), and he’ll mix in an average low-80s slider. Those three pitches were enough to convince North Carolina to shift Hutchison to the rotation last month. And wouldn’t you know that his ERA in his first three starts is 1.84? What does it all mean? I have no idea. But Hutchison is a solid mid-round prospect likely best suited to relief…though if his last two starts are the beginning of a run of success as a starter then who knows.

I don’t follow college ball closely enough to know this for sure, but it certainly seems that North Carolina targets undersized righthanders during recruiting because they know the odds those players will eventually make it to campus is high. Listed at 5-11, 190 pounds, RHP Josh Hiatt is one example. RHP Taylor Sugg (6-1, 175) is another. Same with RHP Hansen Butler (5-11, 180) and RHP Brett Daniels (6-0, 200). This strategy — if it is actually a strategy at all — has worked out for Carolina. Hiatt’s ERA last year was 1.90. Sugg’s was 1.95. Butler missed last season, but had a 2.00 ERA in 2016. Daniels put up a 2.68 ERA in 2017. Of course, college production is one thing but we’re here to talk about what kind of pro prospects these players have. Of that group, I really REALLY like RHP Josh Hiatt. A compelling case could be made for his plus 82-88 split-change as the singular best pitch in college baseball. His fastball won’t blow anybody away at 88-93 MPH, but, again, that changeup is just so damn good. Hiatt also has an average 77-81 MPH slider with more upside than that, but, really, all he needs is that split-change. It’s a true offspeed difference-maker and enough to make him one of this draft’s best relief prospects. Just have to be sure he doesn’t face off against any Seminoles once he reaches pro ball…

RHP Taylor Sugg is a sinker/slider type who also comes with a decent changeup because he’s a pitcher at North Carolina and by rule that means you have to throw at least an average changeup. RHP Hansen Butler needs innings and to get less wild. That was what I originally wrote as a placeholder for Butler before I was going to go back and add something more substantive, but I think it works pretty well without much else. Also, “get less wild” makes me laugh for some reason. Butler’s stuff is really good, so the impetus to get him those innings and improve his control is even greater than if he was just a short righthander with pedestrian talent. At his best, Butler can reach the mid-90s (94-95 mostly) with a pair of offspeed pitches that will show above-average (78-80 slider, 79-82 change). Stop me if you’ve heard this already, but RHP Brett Daniels makes up for his decent heat (87-92) with an above-average 79-84 changeup that flashes plus. He also throws two distinct breaking balls (71-75 CB, 80-81 SL) well enough that the odds are good at least one is working on any given day. As the only senior on the list below, Daniels has an outside shot to get drafted sooner than the rest as a money-saving top ten round senior-sign, though the mid- to late-rounds feels like a more realistic landing spot.

Neither RHP Jason Morgan nor RHP Cooper Criswell has stepped foot on the mound so far in 2018. Morgan’s stuff fits in nicely with all of the short righthanders profiled above, but comes with a 6-6, 215 pound frame and three years of underwhelming peripherals. Criswell is another big guy (6-6, 200) who does the sinker/slider thing well. My quick research into what’s up with both pitchers revealed nothing on Morgan — I think he’s injured, but Google only wants to tell me about a character on General Hospital so I’m getting nowhere fast — and that I somehow missed Criswell pitching 18.2 innings and counting so far in 2018. Whoops. Can we chalk that up to only getting a chance to write these up on the small breaks I get from chasing around a suddenly very mobile ten-month-old? The good news is that Criswell’s 18.2 innings have been super. He’s a draft-worthy arm for sure.

RHP Trevor Gay is not listed on the North Carolina roster. He is featured in the team photo. He’s listed on the UNC stats page as having thrown 2.2 innings this year, but when you click on his name for more information the screen just loads and loads and loads. After an exhaustive thirty second search, I found this tweet…

So there you go. Mystery solved. I like Gay as a sinker/slider relief prospect with loads of deception as he comes at you from a funky sidearm delivery. The Charlotte transfer was good (12.33 K/9) but wild (6.16 BB/9) in his short stint as a Tar Heel (14.2 IP). Assuming the reason for his dismissal isn’t all that serious, I’d take a shot on him.

I’m sure there is a more eloquent way to put this, but I’m a huge sucker for C/RHP Cody Roberts. Logic goes a bit out the window when it comes to his prospect stock because I enjoy watching him play so damn much. Roberts has arguably the best arm strength in this entire class of any position player, flirts with above-average raw power, and is as athletic as any catcher you’d hope to find.

There’s an obvious big league backup catcher floor here that feels to me like almost a sure thing. I know he’s not a sure thing to be a big league backup because there’s truly no such thing as a sure thing in this line of work, but catchers with his kind of arm/athleticism combination are hard to deny. This sent me down a rabbit hole to find some catching prospects of recent drafts with similar defensive tools. The first name that came to mind was a poor man’s Taylor Ward…

.288/.384/.437 – 13.7 K% and 12.1 BB% – 652 PA
.271/.361/.356 – 14.0 K% and 9.9 BB% – 537 PA

Top is Ward at Fresno State, bottom is Roberts at Carolina to date. Ward is clearly ahead, but there are enough similarities between the two that I don’t think the comparison is nuts. Plus, the stats are park/schedule neutral, so you’d have to think the gap would close some once those factors were taken into account. In any event, the comparison was originally based on tools and projection, and I think it holds up. Other names to come up were Sean Murphy, Cooper Johnson, Brent Gibbs, Reese McGuire, Austin Hedges, and Jacob Stallings. If we focus on just the college guys who signed, that leaves us with Ward, Murphy, Gibbs, and Stallings. There was also Garrett Custons and Michael Williams, though those two players were profiled on the site back when I was a little more generous with tool grades. The rounds those players were drafted in: one, three, seven, seven, ten, and thirty. That comes out to an average round of about 9.5. It moves way up to 5.5 if we toss out the outlier in Williams. That feels like a fair range (rounds 5-9) to project Roberts. I’d personally be very happy to get a high-floor, solid-ceiling (plus the pitching fallback with his low- to mid-90s fastball) talent like Roberts at that point in the draft.

Both 2B/3B Zack Gahagan and 2B/3B Kyle Datres feel like they’ve been prospects forever. Datres is a legitimate FAVORITE due to his defensive versatility (in addition to being pretty good at second and third, he can also play a credible shortstop), average or better power and speed, and elite athleticism. I think he has an honest floor as a bat-first utility infielder with the shot to hit himself into a larger role in pro ball. Gahagan has many of the same strengths, but without the same feel for hitting.

As of this writing, OF Brandon Riley has a truly bizarre .202/.385/.393 line through 84 AB. It would be easy to knock him for the low batting average, but the fact that the overall triple slash is about one hundred points off across the board from his full season 2017 line probably says something about his luck with balls in play. As it turns out, The Baseball Cube keeps track of such things. Wouldn’t you know it but Riley’s BABIP last year finished at .340. His current BABIP? .240. I swear I didn’t plan to bring that up when I started this paragraph. In fact, I was only on Riley’s Baseball Cube page in the first place because I wanted to compare his college production to his predecessor in center field for the Tar Heels. Here’s what we’ve got…

.322/.419/.453 – .121 ISO – 10.8 K% and 12.3 BB% – 55/68 SB
.290/.384/.450 – .160 ISO – 14.3 K% and 13.6 BB% – 15/21 SB

That’s Brian Miller, 36th overall pick in last year’s draft, on top. Riley is on bottom. Miller is better, yes, but by how much? Riley lacks Miller’s speed and center field range, but has managed to perform at a similarly high level offensively over the years. Of course, when you’re built up as a speed and defense prospect first and foremost — as both Riley and Miller are — then I suppose glossing over a full grade or more difference in each area is a tad disingenuous. Still, Riley can hit. Feedback on his draft stock has been pretty lukewarm, but I’d be pleased to scoop up the store brand version of Miller ten rounds later than the original this June. Maybe you’re not getting starter upside, but a good backup outfielder ain’t nothing.

OF/1B Jackson Hesterlee has the size, power, and early season production (super small sample size alert!) to at least get him on the “hey, I’d love to know more about this guy” radar. Same with 2B/OF Dylan Enwiller, an above-average to plus runner who is solid at both second and center, if you subtract the part about early season production. Both seem like 2019 senior-signs at this point, though you never know what can happen if they are caught by the right person on the right day.

RHP Luca Dalatri is a great college pitcher and a good pro prospect. RHP Tyler Baum is a good college pitcher and a great pro prospect. Figure that one out. The hype on OF/1B Ashton McGee winding up as one of 2019’s top college bats was really loud all offseason. Twenty games into his sophomore year and that talk has quieted way down. I still believe, though it’s admittedly a tough path to the top of the draft when you’re billed as a bat-first player and your bat refuses to cooperate. The good news for the Tar Heels is that the buzz about a sophomore hitting his way into the early rounds of 2019 may still apply. 1B Michael Busch had a much better freshman season than his .215 batting average suggests, and so far in 2018 all he’s done is hit.

SO RHP Austin Bergner (2018)
rSO RHP Josh Hiatt (2018)
JR RHP Rodney Hutchison (2018)
JR RHP Taylor Sugg (2018)
rJR RHP Hansen Butler (2018)
rJR RHP Jason Morgan (2018)
JR RHP Cooper Criswell (2018)
SR RHP Brett Daniels (2018)
JR C/RHP Cody Roberts (2018)
SR 2B/3B Zack Gahagan (2018)
JR 2B/3B Kyle Datres (2018)
JR OF Brandon Riley (2018)
JR OF/1B Jackson Hesterlee (2018)
JR 2B/OF Dylan Enwiller (2018)
rSO SS/2B Dallas Tessar (2018)
JR C Brendan Illies (2018)
JR OF Josh Ladowski (2018)
SO RHP Luca Dalatri (2019)
SO RHP Tyler Baum (2019)
SO RHP Bo Weiss (2019)
SO OF/1B Ashton McGee (2019)
SO OF/1B Kip Brandenburg (2019)
SO 2B/SS Ike Freeman (2019)
SO C/OF Brandon Martorano (2019)
SO 1B Michael Busch (2019)
FR RHP Joe Lancelotti (2020)
FR RHP/3B Ben Casparius (2020)
FR OF/LHP Angel Zarate (2020)
FR SS Satchel Jerzembeck (2020)
FR 3B Clemente Inclan (2020)
FR OF Earl Semper (2020)

2017 MLB Draft Report – North Carolina

JB Bukauskas is the best 2017 draft-eligible college starting pitching in the country. That may have qualified as a hot take — or at least a warm one — if I had published it over the offseason when the thought first entered my mind, but I have to imagine the rest of the industry is now on board with the idea that Bukauskas, all 6-0, 200 pounds of him, is the real deal. What more does a guy need to do to take over that top spot? Bukauskas was good as a freshman, great as a sophomore, and has been otherworldly so far as a junior. His fastball is an easy plus pitch (91-96, 97-98 peak), his plus to plus-plus 82-89 MPH slider is the best of its kind in this class, and his changeup, appropriately underused against overmatched college competition, has above-average upside. From a stuff standpoint, he checks every box. So what’s the catch? Or is there one? Let’s explore.

When just about the only negative you can say about a guy is that he isn’t quite as tall as you’d like, then he must be pretty good. I don’t mean to be flip, either. Size matters a little bit — there are fair questions about durability, fastball plane, and a lack of historical success for shorter pitchers — but only a little bit. If Bukauskas had the size thing working against him AND another clear question mark surrounding his game, I could see cause for potential concern. But there are literally no non-nitpicky questions about him as a prospect right now outside of his frame. Maybe the delivery? I don’t see much in the way of inconsistencies in how he repeats it, but your mileage might vary.

I feel like I missed on Marcus Stroman even though I ranked him 18th when he went on to be drafted 22nd. Being light on him as long as I was — the summer into his junior year I was comparing him to Kelvim Escobar, Al Alburquerque, and Fautino De Los Santos — taught me a lesson. It even inspired a post a few months later that just so happens to lead us right back to Bukauskas’s prospect stock. The two names mentioned in that post: Stroman (my comp) and Lance McCullers (Perfect Game’s excellent comp). A pitching prospect on that same tier is what you’re buying in Bukauskas. That’s a top ten guy, maybe top five, and, if something happens to Hunter Greene between now and mid-June, a dark horse 1-1 contender.

Trevor Gay and Hansen Butler both need innings, but are more than talented enough to warrant serious draft consideration in June. Gay is a really funky sidearmer who can muster up serious fastball sink to go along with a low-80s slider that flashes plus. Butler is undersized, but damn good when healthy and at his best. “Good yet overlooked” is in my notes on Brett Daniels. I’m a sucker for a good changeup, so my affection for Daniels should make sense. Jason Morgan has a good firm (82-87) changeup of his own plus a pair of average offspeed pitches on top of it (75-81 true breaking ball, 80-85 cut-slider). It also doesn’t hurt that he looks the part at 6-6, 215 pounds.

When jotting quick notes about spring performances down for each 2017 draft-eligible prospect, I’ll write whatever word comes to mind. It’s my own game of free association. Logan Warmoth and Brian Miller got the same one word note: “stud.” With the bar already sky high for both returning stars, Warmoth and Miller have found a way to exceed expectations in the early going of 2017. Their individual production has been stellar, but it’s the scouting buzz both young men have received that has advanced their prospect stock in a major way this spring. I won’t go this far with Warmoth, but a source I trust has told me that he’s the closest thing he’s seen to Alex Bregman since Alex Bregman. True, Bregman has only been out of college for one full season, but the sentiment is understood. Warmoth is a surprisingly polarizing player that clearly has big fans as well as a small yet vocal (to me) group of detractors. Both sides seem to agree that there’s little to no doubting his offensive game at this point. Warmoth is a proven commodity with the stick, hitting for tons of hard line drive contact and legitimate over the fence pop going on fourteen months now. The debate on Warmoth is focused more on his athletic profile and long-term best fit defensively. I’ve gotten grades on his run times to first ranging from 45 to 60 with every increment in between showing up at least once. There is similar uncertainty about his arm strength; some have it as more than enough for the left side of the infield while others see it as the clear reason why second base makes the most sense for him sooner rather than later.

I’d personally mark him off as a slightly above-average hit, average raw power (touch less in-game), average to above-average runner, average thrower, and average (maybe a tick more) defender. That’s a monster prospect at shortstop and a damn near elite one at second. Once you factor in his extended track record of success against high-level amateur pitching and the loads of positive chatter about his work ethic, it’s easy to see why many are calling him a first round lock. Maybe the Bregman comp isn’t as far off as I first thought…

Brian Miller is another premium Tar Heel prospect with a fun mix of athleticism and skills. I’m more bullish on his physical profile than most — like Warmoth, you’ll see his speed range from above-average all the way up to plus-plus — and think he grades out very similarly to his middle infield counterpart across the board. Above-average hit, average raw power (some like it a bit more, so I could still be swayed), plus speed, average arm, and above-average center field range all add up to another potential North Carolina first round pick. That’s three so far if you’re scoring at home. This team is really damn good.

Zack Gahagan is yet another divisive prospect with some defensive questions that will need to be answered in pro ball. Is he a second baseman or a third baseman? Will his plus raw power ever translate to anything more than average in-game production? Does he have the approach to profile as a regular? All open questions at the moment. Kyle Datres is a FAVORITE for his wide array of above-average to plus tools. Like every other position player profiled already, Datres does everything well with no clear weaknesses in his game. As much as I like Warmoth, I could see a case for Datres, an easy plus athlete, being the better long-term investment for a team willing to buy him out of his last two years of college. I’m not yet ready to make that case and the few smart people I’ve ran the idea by all said I was nuts (also, for the record, they all said they expect him back in Chapel Hill next year), but it’s a strong enough hunch that I’ll be following the two guys extra closely these next two months.

As of this writing, Adam Pate has one of the weirder early season lines you’ll ever see: .056/.414/.056 with 11 BB/5 K. 88% of his OPS is tied to his OBP. Wacky stuff. If we look past the odd start, we can see that Pate is a solid senior-sign potential backup outfielder in the pros. He runs well, has a plus arm, and can go get it in center. His understanding of the strike zone and willingness to take what is given at the plate even in the face of (small sample) offensive struggles is another nice perk to his game. Fellow senior outfielder Tyler Lynn is a FAVORITE from last season. He was more good than great in his first year as a Tar Heel, but has stepped his game up this spring. I’m buying his bat in a big way. Lynn is one of the nation’s best potential senior-signs.

I didn’t realize that Cody Roberts was an age-eligible sophomore back when I was putting that list of top 2017 MLB Draft catching prospects together. Roberts is a phenomenal athlete with a great arm and a bat that finally seems to be catching up to his glove. He’s my type of catching prospect. It’s a really interesting year for college catching and the addition of Roberts name into the mix makes it that much more exciting.

*****

JR RHP JB Bukauskas (2017)
JR RHP Jason Morgan (2017)
JR RHP Hansen Butler (2017)
JR RHP Brett Daniels (2017)
rSO RHP Trevor Gay (2017)
SO C/RHP Cody Roberts (2017)
JR 2B/SS Logan Warmoth (2017)
JR OF Brian Miller (2017)
JR 3B/SS Zack Gahagan (2017)
SR OF Adam Pate (2017)
SO 3B Kyle Datres (2017)
SR OF Tyler Lynn (2017)
FR RHP Austin Bergner (2018)
SO RHP Taylor Sugg (2018)
SO RHP Cole Aker (2018)
rFR RHP Josh Hiatt (2018)
SO RHP Rodney Hutchison (2018)
SO SS Utah Jones (2018)
SO OF Brandon Riley (2018)
SO C Brendan Illies (2018)
SO OF Josh Ladowski (2018)
FR RHP Tyler Baum (2019)
FR RHP Luca Dalatri (2019)
FR RHP Robbie Peto (2019)
FR RHP Bo Weiss (2019)
FR LHP Zach Attianese (2019)
FR C Brandon Martorano (2019)
FR 2B/SS Ike Freeman (2019)
FR 1B Michael Busch (2019)
FR OF Laney Orr (2019)
FR 3B/2B Ashton McGee (2019)
FR RHP Evan Odum (2019)

2015 MLB Draft: HS Shortstops (May Update)

A guy named Rodgers is number one. We covered him. Beyond that, things at the high school level are chaotic (in a good way!) as any and all attempts at sorting through this year’s shortstop class are met with with general uneasiness one might feel when attempting to make ice cream for the first time ever. I actually don’t know if that makes a real, smart adult uneasy, but I, a fake, non-smart adult, was in that exact position last night feeling a bit anxious (and, yes, uneasy) about how things would turn out. Well it turns out that when mixing vanilla, sugar, whole milk, and heavy cream together, it’s really, really hard to make something that doesn’t taste good. It might not be ice cream as you know it (or it might!), but it’ll be sweet and cold and close enough to something you recognize as tasty and familiar that you walk away fairly satisfied that you’ve accomplished something worthwhile after eating some. Perhaps as importantly, you’re then forever emboldened with the belief that next time will be even better.

That’s more or less where I’m at with this updated shortstop ranking. There are enough interesting players to write about that I don’t feel too bad about excluding some quality names, but I hope that my eventual final rankings bring me closer to whatever “truth” there is and will be about the unwritten futures of these hard working young men. Rodgers is first and then…I don’t know. Nobody does. That’s what makes this fun. In fact, I’m not sure there are any “wrong” choices as you fill out a post-Rodgers ranking of the position. Of course, it wasn’t that long ago that you could argue for Kyler Murray and Lucius Fox as the second and third best shortstop prospects in this high school class. Those days are long gone, but there’s still an impressive group of talented potential regulars left behind. I’m going to write their names down on scraps of paper, toss them in a hat, and pick to get an expert quality order. Hold on, let me find a hat. Got it and done! We have an order. Let’s proceed.

High school statistics don’t mean a whole heck of a lot in the grand scheme of things, but they are still occasionally fun to look at. Cadyn Grenier (Bishop Gorman HS, Nevada) this year: .513/.636/.894 with 17 extra base hits in 107 PA and 25 BB/9 K. He’s also swiped 21 of 23 bags. He’s a career .532/.616/.859 high school hitter in 363 PA with 60 BB/28 K and 47/49 SB. Is that good? It seems good. Incidentally, Marty Cordova stands as the best Bishop Gorman alum to play pro ball to date, though Joey Gallo figures to change that within the next few seasons or so. Baseball Draft Report: come for the near-meaningless high school stats, stay for the pointless trivia!

More importantly (and on topic), Grenier’s scouting profile reminds me some of where Alex Bregman was back when he was coming out of high school in New Mexico. I think, like the current version of Bregman, Grenier has at least a 50/50 shot at sticking at shortstop for a few years as a professional due in part to a strong enough arm, good first step quickness/instincts, and athleticism to spare. Even if second base winds up as his eventual home, he has the bat to make him an above-average regular if it all works out. I’ve gotten a Howie Kendrick comp on his bat as he’s been described to me as one of those guys who can wake up in the morning ready to hit. He “can roll out of bed and get a base knock” is how that’s usually worded, I guess. You get the idea.

Jalen Miller (Riverwood HS, Georgia) put up eye-popping stats of his own this spring (.464/.562/.875…and, yes, I’m done mentioning HS stats now) and has an equally appealing skill set that almost certainly will be preferred by big league clubs this June. Miller’s calling card is his defense, which is a great thing made greater in a class of high school shortstops with bats generally ahead of their gloves. You take Miller and don’t worry one whit about his future position. The open question about his game has been his ultimate upside with the bat in his hands. I was one of those slow to embrace him as a hitter, but the amount of progress he’s made as a hitter this spring season is undeniable. That alone makes him a unique case for me because I typically weigh summer showcase performance more heavily than whatever transpires on the local high school schedule. That’s a bit counterintuitive maybe – shouldn’t real games that count in the standings take precedence over the manipulated matchups and workouts of the summer season? – but the more level playing field and all-in-one nature typified by the showcase circuit makes it pretty appealing for a scout (or “scout”) looking for some one-stop shopping.

Still, the rise of showcase baseball will forever make me anxious because of both the artificiality of the entire endeavor and the pay-to-play business practices that squeeze out prospects unable to cover the expenses associated with being seen by the right people in today’s modern game. To that point, I’d never hold it against a player for not playing in showcases and always remain open to seeing and hearing about new names or improved games in the spring. It’s still important to recognize that showcases aren’t going anywhere anytime soon – they are BIG business, after all – and I’ll admit that the logistical advantages of getting as many premium talents together in one place to square off head-to-head is of greater import to me “professionally” than any of my moral objections.

Where were we again? Right, Jalen Miller. The Georgia prep shortstop impressed both on the showcase circuit and during his high school team’s spring season. That’s a big positive. I’ve heard the Brandon Phillips comparisons, but I don’t see Miller as quite that kind of player. He’s a better bet to stay at short in the long run, but not as likely to hit for as much power (his pop was described to me as “sneaky”) as even a young Phillips was projected.

Nick Shumpert (Highlands Ranch HS, Colorado) is another high-level easy to like middle infield prospect. On straight tools alone, he might rank second only to Rodgers in this year’s high school shortstop class. If power upside is what you want, I’d say he’s pretty clearly second only to Rodgers. That average or better raw power combined with a fascinating mixture of athleticism, arm strength (average, maybe more), speed (above-average, plays up), defensive upside (love him at second, but think he could also excel at short in time), and bat speed (so hard to measure objectively, but whatever it is he has it) make him a pretty large personal favorite. He’s even got the big league bloodlines thing going for him, if you’re into that sort of thing. If there’s a player in this class I’d compare to Phillips, it would be Shumpert and his explosive hands at the plate.

I’ve written about Nick Madrigal (Elk Grove HS, California) and my rather optimistic comp for his future before. Here we go…

Nick Madrigal has a lot of Jose Altuve in his game, and not just because he’s a fellow vertically challenged middle infield prospect. I mean, sure, that has a lot to do with the comp, but it also has to do with Madrigal’s excellent glove, advanced bat control, instincts beyond his years, underrated athleticism, and an approach to hitting tailor-made for pro ball. This is obviously a ceiling comp, as Altuve has matured into a very fine player, but if you can’t project high school players to big league all-stars nine months before the draft, then when can you?

Only that last part needs amending, but that’s only because we’re now just one month out instead of nine. Between that post and this right very second I asked around quite a bit on Madrigal, receiving mostly favorable feedback along the way. There were some who questioned his size, more who questioned his power utility (a fair concern in my view), and most agreed that a utility ceiling with a chance for more in spurts was a fair projection going forward. I can’t say that’s wrong, but I’ll still bump him up a few spots on my rankings because of what I’ve seen firsthand. Whether you want to call that giving into personal bias or following an instinctual hunch, that’s where I’m at with Madrigal right now. One comp I got on him (bat only) that I enjoy for reasons both practical and personal: Tadahito Iguchi.

I mentioned in September that Xavier LeGrant (Phillip O. Berry Academy of Tech, North Carolina) reminded me some of Shumpert. I stand by that today. I’d also add that Jonathan India (American Heritage HS, Florida) reminds me some of Miller. Baseball America (I believe) has compared India to Avery Romero in the past, but that’s another one I’m not really seeing. India is a better bet defensively to stick at short than Romero ever was. Brandon Perez (Mater Dei HS, California) will be a fan favorite across minor league parks almost immediately for his defensive work. Trey Dawson (Hurricane HS, West Virginia), Logan Tolbert (IMG Academy, Florida), O’Neal Lochridge (St. Thomas More HS, Louisiana), and Kyle Datres (Loyalsock HS, Pennsylvania) stand out as particularly interesting players found a bit lower than the list than they arguably deserve. Daino Deas, like Miller, is a Georgia high school middle infielder, so of course he’s also received the popular Brandon Phillips comp that seems to come with the (literal) territory. Again, I don’t see it other than a few superficial similarities but everybody’s got their own opinions and that’s cool.

If your favorite high school shortstop (or son or cousin or neighbor) isn’t included here, it’s entirely possible that I goofed so let me know. Be advised, however, that these are pro projections (or my best attempts at such), so the high school shortstop you know and love today could be listed with the future pro second basemen and third basemen (coming soon!) of tomorrow.

SS Brendan Rodgers (Lake Mary HS, Florida):
SS/2B Cadyn Greiner (Bishop Gorman HS, Nevada)
SS/2B Nick Shumpert (Highlands Ranch HS, Colorado)
SS Jalen Miller (Riverwood HS, Georgia)
SS Nick Madrigal (Elk Grove HS, California)
SS/2B Xavier LeGrant (Phillip O. Berry Academy of Tech, North Carolina)
SS Jonathan India (American Heritage HS, Florida)
SS Brandon Perez (Mater Dei HS, California)
SS Trey Dawson (Hurricane HS, West Virginia)
SS/3B Logan Tolbert (IMG Academy, Florida)
SS/2B Daino Deas (Parkview HS, Georgia)
SS Chris Reid (St. Michael the Archangel HS, Louisiana)
SS/RHP Kyle Datres (Loyalsock HS, Pennsylvania)
SS/RHP O’Neal Lochridge (St. Thomas More HS, Louisiana)
SS/OF/RHP Daniel Neal (South Laurel HS, Kentucky)
SS Brody Cook (Riverdale Baptist HS, Maryland)
SS/2B Luke Wakamatsu (Keller HS, Texas)
SS Ramon Alejo (Boone HS, Florida)
SS Jake Mueller (Richland Northeast HS, South Carolina)
SS Grant Cox (Greenville HS, South Carolina)
SS David Posas (Valdosta HS, Georgia)
SS Jack Weiller (John Jay Cross River HS, New York)
SS/2B Beau O’Hara (Seven Lakes HS, Texas)
SS Deacon Liput (Oviedo HS, Florida)
SS Trevor Brown (Parkview HS, Georgia)
SS Gabriel Cancel (Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
SS/2B Nico Hoerner (Head Royce HS, California)
SS/RHP Dylan Doherty (Foothill HS, California)
SS/RHP Dylan Poncho (Kinder HS, Louisiana)
SS Nate Fisbeck (The Woodlands HS, Texas)
SS Jonathan Meola (Toms River East HS, New Jersey)
SS Christian Rivera (Cypress Creek HS, Texas)
SS/2B Jeremy Pena (Classical HS, Rhode Island)
SS Garrett Zoukis (Landon HS, Virginia)
SS AJ Graffanino (Northwest Christian HS, Arizona)
SS/2B Jade Salmon-Williams (Brampton SS, Ontario)
SS/3B Jeremiah Burks (Will C. Wood HS, California)
SS Branden Becker (Cajon HS, California)
SS Carter Hall (Wesleyan HS, Georgia)
SS/2B Tristan Metten (Prestonwood Christian Academy, Texas)
SS Ty Denzer (Chanhassen HS, Minnesota)
SS Kyle Isbel (Etiwanda HS, California)
SS Tyler Ankrom (San Clemente HS, California)
SS Nick Dunn (Shikellamy HS, Pennsylvania)
SS Jay Sanford (Pope John XXIII HS, New Jersey)
SS Brandon Janofsky (Jackson Memorial HS, New Jersey)