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2016 MLB Draft Reviews – St. Louis Cardinals

Top 500 Prospects Drafted by St. Louis in 2016

5 – Delvin Perez
19 – Dakota Hudson
70 – Connor Jones
79 – Jeremy Martinez
151 – Dylan Carlson
160 – Zac Gallen
165 – Walker Robbins
179 – John Kilichowski
245 – Tyler Lancaster
347 – Vincent Jackson
386 – Austin Sexton
419 – Spencer Trayner
467 – Andrew Knizner

Complete List of 2016 St. Louis Cardinals Draftees

This is the twelfth published draft review. Beyond that, I’ve more or less finished about half of the league’s draft reviews that should see the light of day sooner rather than later. In other words, while I don’t have a complete in-depth idea of what every team in baseball did this past draft, I think we’re now far enough along this process to start making some overarching observations about the 2016 MLB Draft as a whole. That in mind, it’s safe to now point out that the gap between what the Cardinals managed to do with their 2016 draft and what the rest of the league did is substantial. There are a lot of “it” teams in baseball these days — many of which are plenty deserving of the mantle, the most recent World Series champions being at or near the top of the list for most observers — but I still think that the Cards deserve the top spot as the best run team in the sport. All other candidates have enough advantages (terrible seasons that have led to high picks, crazy international spending and financial freedom to make personnel mistakes, big dollar free agents to supplement their core), but the Cardinals track record over the past decade plus is pristine. They just keep chugging along without little to no dip in overall output along the way.

This high praise got me thinking about how I’d go about justifying that claim to a neutral third party who loves baseball but doesn’t much care for the draft or long-term player development minutiae. To test how strongly I felt about the Cardinals’s recent track record of excellence, I fired off a quick email to a big baseball fan friend who literally knows nothing about the MLB Draft. My attempt to sum up what the Cardinals did as succinctly as possible…

Their first two picks were high school hitters who won’t turn 18-years-old until October and November respectively. Both hit really well in the GCL. Then they took a pair of college pitchers. I love one and like the other, but the important thing here is the plan they clearly had: combined the two got 56 ground balls, 9 line drives, and 6 fly balls in their debuts. That’s a 79% GB-rate on batted balls. They took up-the-middle college hitters in the fourth, sixth, and seventh rounds. Let me throw some lines at you. First, there’s a .325/.419/.433 with 32 BB/16 K in 235 PA. Then we have a .286/.400/.427 with 48 BB/29 K in 310 PA. Finally we get a .319/.423/.492 with 21 BB/21 K in 222 PA. Those ain’t college numbers, those are the pro debuts of those three picks. Their eighth round selection was a Tommy John recovery gamble that could pay off big.

They took a college hitter with this career line: .374/.446/.600 with 64 BB/32 K. They took a college player who did this in his draft year: .444/.502/.639 with 25 BB/15 K and 30/32 SB. Their tenth and eleventh round picks look like rock solid long-time big league contributors. They went with intriguing upside guys in the twelfth (HS), fourteenth (college), and sixteenth (JUCO) rounds, and did so by getting talent from everywhere.

And on and on and on I could have gone. This is a great draft. Don’t believe me? Read on…

1.23 – SS Delvin Perez

I love Delvin Perez (5). A few words from May 2016…

The MLB Draft: go big on upside or go home, especially early on day one. And if you’ve got the smarts/guts enough to do just that, then make it a shortstop when possible. And if you’re going to gamble on a high risk/high reward shortstop, make it as young a shortstop as you can find. And if that young shortstop also happens to have game-changing speed, an above-average to plus arm, plus raw power, and a frame to dream on, then…well, maybe Delvin Perez should be talked more about as the potential top overall prospect in this class then he is. I know there’s some chatter, but maybe it should be louder. What stands out most to me about Perez is how much better he’s gotten over the past few months. That, combined with his youth, has his arrow pointed up in a major way.

The Perez supporters – myself included, naturally – obviously believe in his bat, but also believe that he won’t necessarily have to hit a ton to be a damn fine player when you factor in his defensive gifts and plus to plus-plus speed. That’s part of what makes drafting a highly athletic shortstop prospect with tons of youth on his side so appealing. Even if the bat doesn’t fulfill all your hopes and dreams, the chances you walk away with at least something is high…or at least higher than at any other position. It gives players like Perez a deceptively high floor.

I like his scouting capsule quite a bit…

SS Delvin Perez (International Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico): plus bat speed; plus range; plus raw power; easy plus to plus-plus speed; above-average to plus arm; good athlete; good approach; lots of tools, lots of skills, lots of question marks developmentally and off-field; RHH; 6-3, 165 pounds

That’s a lot of pluses. A sampling of names I’ve personally heard when asking around about Perez over the past few months…

Jonathan Villar, Elvis Andrus, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Crawford

Comps are hardly the be-all-end-all, but, hey, not a bad outcome among the group. Probably my favorite comp — and one I’m kicking myself for not thinking of pre-draft — is Jose Reyes minus the switch-hitting. I think Perez is a superstar in the making. Writing about him is difficult at this point because he’s so talented and so young that coming up with any kind of concrete analysis would feel like little more than guesswork as of now, especially in light of his pre-draft PED issues. My short version — “superstar in the making” — is about all I can come up with based on what I’ve seen, heard, read, and intuitively feel. The rare bit of brevity here will be more than made up for with some longer reads below…

1.33 – OF Dylan Carlson

This may change by the time you read this, but if you Google Dylan Carlson (151) then you get the list of Dylan Carlson information one might expect when you Google Dylan Carlson along with a surprise Wikipedia link for Michael Ohlman on the sidebar. I guess technically if you click that link it isn’t really about Ohlman, but it’s still funny to me. One day Carlson will take back over his sidebar. That’s the kind of fearless prediction you can only get on this website. Cherish it.

That preemptive diversion was meant largely to distract from the fact that I don’t have a whole lot to say at this point about Dylan Carlson than you probably already know. Carlson is a really easy player to fall in love with and the Cardinals picking him earlier than many (like me!) expected — he signed an underslot bonus, to be fair — has many (like me!) falling into the “well, if a smart team like the Cardinals liked him then he must be better than we thought…” trap that can often infiltrate post-draft analysis. I can admit that I’m a little bit guilty of that here, but St. Louis putting a first round stamp of approval on the “second round version of Kirilloff” (my pre-draft note from a team official) was far from the only reason this pick looks like a winner as we sit back and reflect on November 7th.

Carlson is a hitter first and foremost, but his well-rounded skill set gives him a chance to be a major asset both offensively (average speed, solid athleticism) and defensively (average arm, impressive instincts and first-step quickness) beyond what he should hopefully do in the batter’s box. Carlson as a first base prospect is plenty interesting, but, like Alex Kirilloff, his value as an all-around ballplayer jumps way up if he can play an average or better left or right field. The fact that the Cardinals have aggressively pushed him as a center fielder at the onset of his pro career seems to be a good sign about his early defensive progress as an outfielder. All of this non-bat talk is just icing on the cake. It’s Carlson’s ability as a hitter that will make or break him in the pros. St. Louis clearly believes it’ll make him and I’m in no position to disagree. Carlson is one of those young guys that gives off the simultaneous vibe that, yes, he was put on this planet to hit and doing so comes natural to him in a way that teammates are secretly jealous of while ALSO being one of those clearly dedicated athletes that will work both hard and smart to accomplish seemingly any goal set before him. Carlson is both a natural and a grinder. That’s a heck of a combination. I didn’t poll enough people to make this a scientifically significant study, but the next person I talk to that doesn’t think Carlson will hit his way to a starting big league role will be the first. Kid can hit.

Of course, the kid isn’t really a kid; in fact, Carlson is the old man of the Cardinals first two high school picks. The Cardinals first first round pick Delvin Perez won’t be 18-years-old until the end of November; Grandpa Carlson just turned the big one-eight last week (10/23). Sometimes a team drafting super young for their class early round prospects means something and sometimes it’s a coincidence. I have a strong hunch that the former is true in the case of the St. Louis front office knowing what’s up, but can’t say that for sure just yet. A trend of two isn’t really a trend at all, especially when you look at last year’s Cardinals first round pick, Nick Plummer, and his slightly older than his peer group age. But then there’s Bryce Denton, another early round high school pick from last year, who becomes yet another point in favor of the young for his class trend being an actual trend. Inconclusive, is the only real conclusion I have right now. Makes me wonder why this paragraph is even seeing the light of day…

1.34 – RHP Dakota Hudson

Asked a fairly simple Dakota Hudson (19) question back in April 2016…

Are we sure he isn’t the best college pitching prospect in the country?

Ask a simple question, get a simple answer. College pitchers ranked ahead of Hudson come draft day: one. Only AJ Puk stood in the way of Hudson finishing his junior season as the best college pitching prospect in the country. That might not seem that interesting or impressive, but consider where Hudson started the year. From October 2015…

Hudson is the biggest mystery man out of the SEC Four Horsemen (TM pending…with apologies to all the Vandy guys and Kyle Serrano) because buying on him is buying a largely untested college reliever (so far) with control red flags and a limited overall track record. Those are all fair reasons to doubt him right now, but when Hudson has it working there are few pitchers who look more dominant. His easy plus 86-92 cut-slider is right up there with Jackson’s curve as one of the best breaking balls in the entire class.

The strapping righthander from Mississippi State came into his junior year coming off a sophomore season spent exclusively in the bullpen and with a grand total of 33.0 college innings under his belt. My point here isn’t to highlight the fact that Hudson was some out-of-nowhere unknown nobody (he wasn’t), but rather the kind of precocious talent who survived and then thrived the as he learned how to be a major college starting pitcher in the SEC on the fly. As such, I think we’ve only scratched the surface as to how good he can really be. Check out this man’s stuff: explosive fastball (90-96, 98 peak), breaking ball with legit plus upside, a hard 86-92 cut-slider that’s already a plus pitch, and a nascent mid-80s changeup with the chance to be a fine pitch in its own right. His current flaws (fastball command, occasionally wonky mechanics, some inconsistency with the breaking ball) are all likely fixable with some clever coaching, something he’s sure to get with the Cardinals. I don’t say this lightly, but it’s ace upside. How many pitchers in this class can you really say that about?

On top of that, Hudson’s batted ball profile is a thing of beauty to fans of democracy. MLB Farm has him giving up 21 ground balls, 3 fly balls, and 2 line drives in his first 13.1 innings of professional baseball. That’s incredible. I put him on the Jeff Samardzija/Taijuan Walker/Jake Arrieta spectrum before the draft (FWIW heard absolute worst case scenario Blake Treinen after the draft), and I don’t see why he can’t at least achieve the minimum outcome (competent big league starting pitcher like Walker, who I still very much believe in as something more than that) as of now. If that’s the “downside,” then what’s the upside? I’ll stand by the Cy Young kind of upside that Arrieta has shown as being a very real potential outcome for Hudson. If we look at that comparison more literally, that would put Hudson in High-A (like Arrieta in 2008) to start his first full pro season next year. Considering that’s the same level that Hudson finished his 2016 season, I think that’s a very safe bet. The bar at A+ is 113.0 innings worth of 9.56 K/9, 4.06 BB/9, and 2.87 ERA ball. I’d say that’s very doable as well. Arrieta’s career has taken its fair share of twists and turns — development is nonlinear, development is nonlinear, development is nonlinear — so the literal career path comparison thing we’re doing here isn’t ideal, but it’s baseball and prospects and it’s supposed to be fun. Imagine Hudson as the next Arrieta (minus the Baltimore drama) is a lot of fun. I think he reaches those peaks and becomes the biggest steal of the draft.

2.70 – RHP Connor Jones

If you liked Dakota Hudson’s batted ball profile, then you’ll probably also get a kick out of what Connor Jones (70) did in his debut. How does a mix of 35 ground balls, 7 line drives, and 3 fly balls sound? Think the Cardinals might have a type? As if Cardinals fans needed another reason to like the picks of Dakota Hudson and Jones, one could very easily imagine a Chicago Cubs draft room filled with front office types milling about anxiously hoping, wishing, and praying for either guy to fall to them with their first pick. Neither guy made it to the third round, so the ground ball loving Cubs had to settle for Thomas Hatch instead. Interestingly enough (to me at least), my quick math had the junior season version of Jones (68.90%) and Hudson (68.57%) as two of the three (along with TJ Zeuch) most ground ball-y (I wanted to say “groundballingest,” but it just doesn’t look right) pitching prospects in the 2016 college class. If I had expanded that list to include more top pitching prospects, I surely would have thrown Hatch’s name into the mix. As it happens, I did the math on Hatch’s college GB% after the draft when I did the Cubs draft review. Wouldn’t you know it was almost identical (68.3%) to Jones and Hudson? Not only are the Cubs and Cardinals heated rivals on the field, but they also seem to be in direct competition for the same type of pitchers on the amateur market. Pretty cool.

The above gets at Connor Jones as an idea. What about Connor Jones the actual real life living, breathing pitcher? Since the Virginia righthander has been a pretty big deal for a long time now, we’ve got a pretty long history with the Cavaliers star to draw from. Let’s start way back in high school with his quick scouting capsule. From June 2013…

RHP Connor Jones (Great Bridge HS, Virginia): 88-92 FB with true plus sink, 93-95 peak; average 77-82 SL flashes plus; above-average upside with 78-82 CU; everything sinks; ground ball machine; plus command; 2013: 90-94; FAVORITE; 6-3, 190 pounds

If we fast-forward all the way to the present day, we can compare the Jones of three years ago to the Jones the Cardinals selected this past June. Here is the decluttered version of his most recent scouting snapshot…

Virginia JR RHP Connor Jones: 87-94 FB with crazy movement and plus sink, 96 peak; above-average 82-86 cut-SL, flashes plus; average 76-82 CB, doesn’t throw it often; 83-88 split-CU, flashes plus; complete four-pitch mix; good athlete; holds velocity well; 6-3, 200 pounds

The evolution of Jones was impressive, even when accounting for his already physically and emotionally mature start. Fastball ticked up a bit, but retained the same insane movement. Slider firmed up some as well and added some cutter action. Change morphed into a truer splitter, but continued to serve the same purpose. Added a curve that he rarely used as much more than a show-me pitch. Command, pitchability, and athleticism remained strong points. What’s not to like about this guy? Let’s keep digging. Next step, March 2015…

Connor Jones might now be the front-runner for me. Jones can get it up to the mid-90s with some of the craziest movement you’ll see, plus he can mix in three offspeed pitches (slider flashes plus, solid curve, and a hard splitter that acts as a potential plus changeup) with the know-how and ability to command everything effectively. Comps I’ve heard run the gamut from Jeff Samardzija to Dan Haren to Homer Bailey, but I’m partial to one that hit me when viewing his second start this season: Masahiro Tanaka.

Very optimistic! And such generous comps, too. Things are rolling now. How were things in October 2015…

Jones, the number one guy on a list designed to serve the same purpose as the one created over seven months ago, hasn’t actually done anything to slip this far down the board; competition at the top this year is just that fierce. I like guys with fastballs that move every which way but straight, so Jones’s future looks bright from here. His mid-80s splitter has looked so good at times that he’s gotten one of my all-time favorite cross-culture comps: Masahiro Tanaka.

Some acknowledgment that the college pitching class was crowded at the top with a lot of good but not great options, but still generally positive about Jones’s outlook. Who wants to bet I keep pounding that Masahiro Tanaka comp into the ground in February 2016…

I’m 100% buying what Connor Jones — the Virginia one, not Tyler’s lefthanded Georgia teammate — is selling. I’ve mentioned it before, but I get an unusually high number of comps on him from enthusiastic scouts. My hunch is that it has something to do with his exciting mix of ceiling (number two starter?) and certainty (very polished, very professional) that gets those guys going. I still love the cross-cultural Masahiro Tanaka comp for him.

I’m so predictable. More of the same in April 2016…

Connor Jones represents the best cross-section of upside and safety in this year’s college pitching class. Assuming non-catastrophic injury, I’d be stunned if he doesn’t wind up at least somewhere around a big league starter. That’s about where I’d put his reasonable upside as well: solid big league starting pitcher. There’s a chance for more, of course, due in large part to his dynamic one-two offspeed combo of an upper-80s splitter and a low- to mid-80s slider. I’ve comped him to Masahiro Tanaka at the highest of high ceiling projections, so, yeah, I like him. Future mid-rotation arms are tremendous real life assets, but fairly boring in fantasy land.

At least past-me gets more to the point about Jones’s value being tied heavily to his unique blend of upside and safety. It was hard at this point in the process to see Jones as anything but a useful big league starter down the line with the upside being a mid-rotation or better type. Some, however, were starting to get a little stuck on the first part there: “anything but a useful big league starter.” Everybody loves (or should love) a useful big league starter, but there’s plenty of room for those of us who want more than useful. Depending on your contextual expectations, useful can either be a compliment or an insult. It’s meant as a compliment here, but could very easily be spun as a negative by those who question Jones’s upside. In fact, later in the month we kind of went there…

I’ve gone back and forth on Jones a few times throughout the draft process. For as much as I like him, there’s something about his game doesn’t quite add up just yet. He checks every box you’d want in a near-ML ready starting pitching prospect, but it’s hard to get too excited about a pitcher who has never truly dominated at the college level. My big question about Jones is whether or not he has that second gear that will allow him to consistently put away big league hitters in times of trouble. His stuff is perfectly suited to killing worms; in fact, his sinker, slider, and splitter combination has resulted in an impressive 65.25 GB% in 2016. But he’ll have to miss more bats to be more than a back of the rotation starter at the highest level. His K/9 year-by-year at Virginia: 6.55, 8.77, and 6.79. Those aren’t the kinds of numbers you’d expect out of a guy being talked up in some circles as a potential top ten pick and first college pitcher selected in the draft. This evaluation of Jones is a little bit like the scattered thoughts on Corey Ray shared above in that it highlights how tough it can be when you’re one of the top prospects in the country. Potential top half of the first round prospects get nitpicked in a way that mid-round players never will. Jones, like Ray, is an excellent prospect, but because a) everybody already knows the top two dozen or so “name” draft prospects are excellent and continuously talking about how great they are is tired, and b) the greater investment in top prospects necessitates a more thorough examination of their total game, getting picked apart more than most comes with the territory.

There it is. The K/9 bomb was finally dropped. I’m way too lazy to do the work myself and far too unimportant to crowdsource the information otherwise, but I have a pretty strong hunch from doing this for years that not too many college starter pitchers who enter pro ball coming off a full (103.2 IP) junior season with a K/9 as low as 6.25 have had much sustained success in big league rotations. Strikeouts aren’t everything and Jones’s ability to generate ground ball outs by the bushel need not be ignored, but it’s hardly controversial to suggest that good big league starting pitchers universally share the ability to consistently get swings and misses in key situations. If Jones wants to be a “good” big league starting pitcher (i.e., more than an up-and-down four or five), then he’s almost certainly going to have to miss more bats. We’re admittedly setting a high bar to illustrate a point, but of the top twenty starting pitchers (by FIP) with at least 50 IP in 2016, only six did it without striking out a batter per inning. The lowest K/9 of any pitcher in the top thirty was Matt Harvey at 7.38. Second lowest? Masahiro Tanaka at 7.44. Hmm…

I don’t doubt that a guy with Jones’s stuff, smarts, and work ethic can keep improving as a professional and reach the modest version of his ceiling (back-end starter) sooner rather than later. I also wouldn’t dare shut the door on him fulfilling the higher end of those earliest projections (number two, maybe a three) with continued progress. Real upside with a very high floor. That’s a heck of a pick late in the second round.

3.106 – RHP Zac Gallen

Zac Gallen (160), sick of all the attention paid to Hudson and Jones by certain batted ball enthusiasts who shall remain nameless, went out in his pro debut and struck out 15 batters in 9.2 innings pitched. Who needs ground balls when you’re sitting people down at that clip, right? Gallen isn’t quite that kind of pitcher — to be fair, THAT kind of pitcher doesn’t really exist outside of Aroldis Chapman — but he did see his K/9 increase every season while in Chapel Hill. From 6.54 to 7.93 to 9.44, Gallen’s steady improvement as a strikeout pitcher was reflected by his improved out-pitch (cut-slider) and consistently awesome command. Gallen is pretty much the low-upside/high-floor college starting pitcher straight out of Central Casting. His fastball won’t wow anybody velocity-wise at 88-92 MPH (though I swear I’ve personally seen it up to 94 as a starter and even higher than that as a reliever…can’t confirm either peak and my exact notes have turned to dust), but he commands it exceptionally well. Between the fastball, cut-slider (a deadly offering that can hit any number on the radar beginning with 8), and a pair of average softer pitches (mid-70s curve, low-80s change), Gallen can roll through even the toughest lineups multiple times when he’s hitting his spots. A few older notes on Gallen, first from March 2016…

It’ll be really interesting to see how high Gallen will rise in the real draft come June. He’s the kind of relatively safe, high-floor starting pitching prospect who either sticks in the rotation for a decade or tops out as a sixth starter better served moving to the bullpen to see if his stuff plays up there. This aggressive (pretend) pick by Boston should point to what side of that debate I side with. Gallen doesn’t do any one thing particularly well — stellar fastball command and a willingness to keep pounding in cutters stand out — but he throws five (FB, cutter, truer SL, CB, CU) pitches for strikes and competes deep into just about every start. There’s serious value in that.

And then from April 2016…

Gallen’s profile seems like the type who gets overlooked during the draft, overlooked in the minors, and overlooked until he’s run through a few big league lineups before people begin to get wise. That’s all entirely anecdotal, but sometimes you’ve got to run with a hunch.

One thing that strikes me as potentially notable — though I suppose technically this is actually notable and not potentially notable since here I am noting it — is St. Louis’s tendency to gravitate to pitchers who have shown consistent depth of offspeed stuff in addition to their proclivity to target ground ball arms like Dakota Hudson and Connor Jones. “Legit four-pitch mix” is a phrase that comes up in both Jones’s and Gallen’s scouting profiles. Jones and Gallen — especially Gallen — are pitchers who get results based more on the sum of their stuff than any individual component. Stylistically, pitchers like Gallen bring me back to the age-old (probably) question that I’ve personally struggled with for years: do you like Pitcher A with his two knockout pitches and a fringey (or nonexistent) third pitch OR do you prefer Pitcher B with his four average-ish pitches? Neither Jones nor Gallen quite fit that Player B archetype as perfectly as I’d like to really hammer home this point — Gallen is the closer of the two, but I think his cutter is too good to call it simply “average-ish” — but you get the general idea of what the Cardinals like to target on draft day.

4.136 – C Jeremy Martinez

On Jeremy Martinez (79) from April 2016…

Jeremy Martinez is another catcher who has been described to me as “good enough” defensively, but that’s an opinion my admittedly non-scout eyes don’t see. I wrote about him briefly last month…

I’ve long thought that Jeremy Martinez has been underrated as a college player, so I’m happy to get a few sentences off about how much I like him here. Martinez was born to catch with a reliable glove and accurate arm. His offensive game is equally well-rounded with the chance for an average hit tool and average raw power to go along with his standout approach. His ceiling may not be high enough for all teams to fall in love, but he’s as good a bet as any of the college catchers in this class to have a long big league career in some capacity or another.

Then he went out and hit .325/.419/.433 with 32 BB/16 K in 235 PA for State College. Defensively, the man threw out 17 of 37 (46%) potential base stealers. That’s after hitting .376/.460/.563 with 19 BB/12 K in 213 AB at USC in his junior season. It might be time to accept the fact that Martinez can really play. I think it could be a 50 bat, 55 power, and 55/60 overall defender. That’s really enticing by itself, but when you add in his exceptional track record as a disciplined hitter (71 BB/43 K at USC) equally skilled with both getting ahead early in counts and hitting with two strikes, then you’ve really got something worth getting excited about. Between Carson Kelly, Martinez, and Andrew Knizner, the Cardinals don’t have to worry about life after Yadier Molina one iota going forward. Must be nice.

5.166 – OF Walker Robbins

On Walker Robbins (165) from May 2016…

If we’re going to pair Rizzo and Cantu together, then why not do the same for Christian Jones and Walker Robbins? The two lefthanded bats have very similar offensive ceilings. In a fun twist, Robbins, a legitimate pitching prospect with a fastball that ranges from 87-92 MPH, takes the place of Joey Wentz in this updated top five. Wentz, as many know, is a lefthanded pitching prospect all the way, but that wasn’t always the case. There were some fools (e.g., me) who thought his pro future would come as a slugging first baseman. Maybe there are some out there that think of Robbins more as a pitcher – I haven’t talked to any, but I’ve learned not to make assumptions with low-90s lefties – but at this point I’m pretty comfortable with him as a single-digit round hitting prospect. That’s some nice prospect symmetry right there.

Anyway, much like Jones, Robbins can hit. His power is real, he’s an excellent athlete, and he’s right around average with most of his run times. Also like Jones, the only real question I have with Robbins being where he is on this list is whether or not a pro team will challenge him with some outfield work after signing. I’d be fine with that, obviously – he can run, he can throw, and it’s not my money – but it would be kind of a shame to not have him play first base at the next level. I haven’t personally seen all of the players listed below, but of the ones I have, he’s easily the most impressive defender at first. It’s not the same as being a plus defender at catcher, center, or short, but it’s not nothing.

It’ll take time, but I believe in Walker Robbins as a power bat, defender at first, and athlete. Will he make enough contact to make all those good things matter? You got me, but that’s why he fell to the fifth round. That said, there’s not a 133 pick difference between his upside and Dylan Carlson’s. Getting both within the draft’s first five rounds (in addition to a potential star SS, two rock solid big league pitching prospects, and an advanced college catcher who is a clear potential successor to Yadier Molina behind the plate) is a major win for the Cards. Fans of twenty-nine other teams should be jealous.

6.196 – SS Tommy Edman

On Tommy Edman from April 2016…

Edman’s bat is more my speed thanks to his strong hit tool, good understanding of the strike zone, and ability to make consistent contact even when down in the count. I’ve given in to those who have long tried to convince me he’s more second baseman than shortstop, but there’s still a part of me who thinks he’s good enough to play short. For a guy with realistic ceiling of big league utility man, I can more than live with that kind of defensive future. If I really stuck to my guns here then you’d see Edman over Morrison, but for now I’ll defer to the overwhelming consensus of smarter people out there who let me know (nicely, mostly) that I was nuts for considering it. I guess the big takeaway here for me is that either player would be great value at any point after the first five rounds.

All’s I know is a sixth round pick hit .286/.400/.427 with 48 BB/29 K in 310 PA for State College, and that ain’t not bad.

The Stanford middle infielder turned Cardinals prospect’s strong debut was undeniably impressive, but not altogether unfamiliar. Drew Jackson had a similarly thrilling debut last year after being picked in the fifth round last year by Seattle (.358/.432/.447 with 30 BB/35 K and 47/51 SB) before coming back to Earth in 2016, so, you know, these things can happen when we’re dealing with relatively small samples. The pre-draft evaluation on Edman (“realistic ceiling of big league utility man”) shouldn’t be changed much just because of his hot professional start. Still, I’d rather see a fast start than a slow one, so if you’d like to feel a little extra enthusiastic about Edman as a ballplayer going forward based on those 310 stellar plate appearances, then far be it from me to rain on your parade. I will say that the pairing of Edman and the Cardinals feels like a perfect marriage. Envisioning him as a pesky hitting utility infielder (already annoying enough to the opposition in that role) who takes the opponent’s fan base frustration up a million notches when he inevitably gets called upon to start for stretches due to injuries elsewhere at various points over the next decade without missing a beat offensively for whatever star he’s replacing (Delvin Perez, maybe?) is just too easy. Easier than parsing the meaning of that monster of a sentence, I’ll bet.

7.226 – C Andrew Knizner

On Andrew Knizner (467) in December 2015…

JR C Andrew Knizner is a fascinating prospect who doesn’t quite fit the mold of what one might think of a potential top five round college catcher. Defensively, he’s still very much out of sorts as a relatively new catcher but his athleticism and willingness to make it work could be enough for teams willing to take the long view on his pro future. Offensively, he’s a high contact hitter with excellent plate coverage and power that has a chance to be average or better as he continues to add strength. I tend to give players new to a demanding defensive position the benefit of the doubt for as long as possible, so I’m fine with riding out another half-season or so of shaky defense behind the plate before beginning to ask the question whether or not Knizner has what it takes to be a catcher full-time in the pros. Almost no matter what transpires on the field this year, I can’t see a team drafting Knizner high enough that he’s signable with the intention of at least continuing to try him as a catcher for the foreseeable future. He’s good enough in other areas that it’s not quite a catcher or bust proposition for him, but that depends on how high one’s expectations are for him at this point.

Knizner split his time pretty evenly between first base and catcher at Johnson City in his debut. He also went out and hit .319/.423/.492 with 21 BB/21 K in 222 PA. I’ve had many people who have seen Knizner play in short looks come back completely unsold on his defense behind the plate. I appreciate firsthand accounts like that, but I find it telling that so many of these observations are the quick-hitter type. For whatever reason, Knizner’s defense is particularly difficult to judge when viewed only through the prism of a single game or series. The newness of playing the position is too often dismissed by those who are already convinced he can’t do the job, and the incremental progress he’s made defensively — the definition of slow and steady, emphasis on slow — is worth keeping in mind. I think Knizner has shown enough already to warrant serious consideration as a long-term catcher defensively, a personal view reinforced by his athleticism and arm strength. As an average or better defender behind the plate, Knizner has a chance to be an above-average all-around player. This is the type of college catcher (i.e., one with clear starter upside) worth taking a chance on here.

8.256 – RHP Sam Tewes

On Sam Tewes in mid-March 2016 before news of his announced TJ surgery was official…

Tewes’s arm (up to 95, good CB) and size (6-5, 200) is too good to pass up even with the rocky start. Even if his recent elbow discomfort ends in something unfortunate, he’s still the most talented player on this roster and best pro bet going forward.

And then later in March 2016 when we knew it was coming…

I always make a point to say that these are conceived as pre-season rankings that attempt to reflect the larger body of work rather than recent performances. There are, however, exceptions to that rule. Sam Tewes is a walking, talking exception as he was dropped a whopping one whole spot after news broke that he’ll be undergoing Tommy John surgery on Wednesday (March 31, 2016). His immediate draft future is obviously in doubt as he’ll have to weigh the pros and cons of rehabbing as a professional versus doing so as a redshirt-junior next season at Wichita State. I wouldn’t consider him signable as of now – guys with multiple years of eligible left are challenges from the start and the injury clouds up his future even more – but I’d sure as heck be on him this spring trying to figure out if there’s a reasonable number he’d agree to. His ability is undeniable. Tewes feels like the kind of guy the Red Sox pick late and convince to sign an overslot deal on while fans of all other teams slap their heads thinking “Why couldn’t we have thought of that?”

It says something both about Tewes and the rest of the Missouri Valley 2016 collection of pitching that I’d still take him second out of the group even with the bum elbow. Tommy John surgery should really drop you more than one spot, right? Maybe I’m overrating Tewes, underrating the rest of the Missouri Valley pitching crop, or making too many assumptions about the simplicity of Tommy John surgery; I’d accept any arguments against his placement, but will hold firm on his ranking just off the top spot for now.

Tewes went under the knife on March 31, 2016. That didn’t stop the Cardinals from taking a shot on the big (6-5, 200) righthander’s big (88-94, 96 peak) fastball and big bending curve. Add in a hard slider with promise and a nascent changeup, and you can see why St. Louis would be willing to get Tewes into their organization even with the injury. I love this pick. Tremendous upside — could see Tewes continuing to start in the pros, but the fallback as a dominant late-inning reliever isn’t so bad either — if it works out with minimal risk (an eighth round pick and only $100,000) if it doesn’t. Really can’t say enough about how much I like this one.

9.286 – OF Matt Fiedler

So much of post-draft analysis (in all sports) boils down to “well, they drafted a lot of the guys I ranked highly, so GREAT DRAFT!” or “they are clueless because their picks don’t correlate to my own board at all.” Neither of these responses are wrong per se (if you took the time to create a board you value, then you shouldn’t throw it out just because it didn’t line up with the reality of the actual draft), but, at best, I think we can call that kind of analysis incomplete. Judging a draft should be done in a more curious way. Approaching selections with the attitude of “I wonder why they did this” rather than viewing picks only through a singular (maybe right, maybe wrong) pre-draft valuation results in a far more interesting and useful overall thought exercise for writer and reader alike.

St. Louis took Minnesota RHP/OF Matt Fiedler in the ninth round. Fiedler was on my radar as a promising mid-round relief type (88-92 FB, good mid-70s CB, low-80s sinking CU), but, as an offensive prospect, I didn’t think the Gophers star was much more than a solid college bat. The Cardinals saw things differently. Without overreacting too much to his fantastic 220 PA pro debut, I can admit that I may have overlooked Fiedler’s power/speed upside (.166 ISO as a junior/31 for 36 SB his last two seasons in college) while also failing to give the two-way player enough of a break when it came to his solid but unspectacular (41 BB/48 K career) plate discipline (wholly anecdotal, but this is something that a lot of two-way guys see a positive bounce in the pros). Fiedler remains in a position where he’ll have to hit his way to the big leagues, but he’s off to a better start than most of his 2016 draft peers.

10.316 – 3B Danny Hudzina

On Danny Hudzina from March 2016…

Hudzina is a similarly talented hitter – more hit than power if we’re comparing him head-to-head with Lynch – who gets the edge because of his fascinating defensive versatility. I asked a few smart people about his long-term defensive home and each response gave me a new position to consider. Most preferred him at his present position of third base, a spot where he is really good already. Others thought he was athletic enough to handle short in a pinch, thus making his future position “utility infielder” more so than any one permanent spot. I also heard second base more than once, which made sense considering he has prior experience there. He also has experience behind the plate, so speculation that he’ll one day return to the catcher position will always be there. That was the most intriguing response, not only because of the idea itself (hardly a novel thought) but because of the conviction the friend who suggested it presented the thought (i.e., it wasn’t like he said that’s what should happen with him, he was saying that a switch to catcher will happen to him in the pros). Despite the certainty of that one friend, I’m still on the third base bandwagon with the idea of him being athletic enough to handle any infield spot (including third catcher duties) in play. All in all, offensively and defensively (wherever he may wind up), I think Hudzina has a big league skill set.

And then Hudzina went out and hit .408/.470/.564 with 26 BB/12 K. His combined junior and senior season walk to strikeout ratio: 40 BB/28 K. Hudzina is such a Cardinal it’s not even funny. Productive, patient hitter? Check. Multi-position defensive versatility? You know it. High marks in makeup, work ethic, and coachability? Like you really had to ask. As I said in March, Hudzina has a clear big league skill set. I think it’s more of a matter of “when” and not “if” he gets that far. For a $3,000 tenth round pick, that’s pretty awesome. Love this selection.

11.346 – LHP John Kilichowski

John Kilichowski (179) has a long history here on the site. Let’s dive in beginning in April 2015…

Ferguson’s stumble this season has opened the door for draft-eligible sophomore (he’ll be 21 in May) LHP John Kilichowski to slide in as Vanderbilt’s third best 2015 pro pitching prospect. He was great as a freshman last year (8.61 K/9 and 1.57 ERA in 23 IP) and has continued to do good things in 2015 (44 K/11 BB in 37.2 IP). His fastball isn’t an overpowering pitch (86-92), so he wisely leans on a pair of average or better offspeed offerings (mid-70s CB, upper-70s CU) to help him miss bats. Good stuff, solid track record, relatively fresh arm, and plenty of size (6-5, 210) all coming in from the left side? Nice. Statistically he’s had a very similar season to teammate rJR LHP Philip Pfeifer, yet another potential early pick off the Commodores staff. Pfeifer can’t match Kilichowski’s size or track record as a starter, but his fastball is a tick faster (94 peak) and his curve a bit sharper. How much of that can be attributed to his fastball/curveball combo playing up in shorter outings – in fairness, though he’s pitched out of the bullpen exclusively this season he almost always goes multiple innings at a time – or just having flat better stuff is up for the smarter area guys to decide. I give Kilichowski the edge for now based on what I know, but I can see it being a coin flip for many.

We actually could have started even further back in time. Here was Kilichowski’s HS scouting notes…

LHP John Kilichowski (Tampa Jesuit HS, Florida): 86-88 FB, 90 peak; solid CU; 73-76 CB with plus upside; 6-5, 185 pounds

He added thirty pounds, a few ticks to his fastball (86-92, 94 peak), and continued to refine his offspeed stuff in his three years as a Commodore. Not too shabby. Let’s check in on what we said about him in October 2015…

Vanderbilt pumps out so much quality pitching that it’s almost boring to discuss their latest and greatest. Kilichowski (and Sheffield and Bowden and Stone) find themselves sandwiched between last year’s special group of arms and a freshman class that includes Donny Everett and Chandler Day. The big lefty has impeccable control, easy velocity (86-92, 94 peak), and the exact assortment of offspeed pitches (CB, SL, and CU, all average or better) needed to keep hitters off-balance in any count. It’s not ace-type stuff, but it’s the kind of overall package that can do damage in the middle of a rotation for a long time.

And then again in May 2016…

Kilichowski excelled last season with nearly a strikeout per inning thanks to a legit four-pitch mix, above-average command, and impressive size on the mound. He’s only pitched 11.0 innings so far in 2016, so evaluating him will necessitate taking the long view of his development over the past few seasons.

It would be easy to look at Kilichowski’s injured-marred junior season as the reason why St. Louis could land a potential mid-rotation big league starting pitcher in the eleventh round for a reasonable ($200,000) price. It would also be correct. This is a heck of a pick by the Cardinals. Is ending each pick’s section with a variation on that theme getting tiresome yet? Too bad!

12.376 – SS Brady Whalen

All else equal, I root for just about every player to sign a pro contract. I say that because a) money is good, b) playing pro ball can open up lots of doors later in life even if actually playing the game doesn’t work out, and c) both the NCAA and the American college system in general are scammy at best and criminal at worst. This robs me of three years worth of evaluation time, so the pro leaning comes from a rare unselfish place. Still, there are certain players in every draft class that you can’t help but wonder “what if” about. Between the increased scouting exposure, risk mitigation, and personal growth one could expect a prospect to make over three calendar years, Brady Whalen could have come out of Oregon as a first day pick in 2019. Instead, the Cardinals took a chance on the toolsy 6-4, 185 pound prep shortstop from Washington in the twelfth round and managed to get him signed for about the same bonus they paid their fifth rounder. Whalen wound up playing a lot of second, a little bit of third, and a teeny tiny bit of shortstop in his debut. My notes on him before the draft were pretty straightforward: “steady glove, accurate arm, plus frame.” It’s pretty to envision a best case scenario of Whalen continuing to fill out and becoming a true power threat (the swing is there) while maintaining enough athleticism to play regularly at either second (a terrifying sight for incoming base runners), third (if his arm can handle it), or an outfield corner.

13.406 – OF Shane Billings

Shane Billings was a pre-draft FAVORITE for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, let’s go to his 2016 numbers at Wingate: .444/.502/.639 with 25 BB/15 K and 30/32 SB. That’ll play. Beyond that, he’s a plus runner with enough instincts to stick in center, decent pop (maybe a double-digit homer guy at his peak), and an average arm. It’s a rock solid fourth outfielder package with a slim shot at more if he keeps hitting.

14.436 – OF Vincent Jackson

Vincent Jackson’s (347) pro debut strikes me as pretty much the perfect kind of Vincent Jackson line: .233/.318/.357 (19.0 K% and 8.5 BB%) with 16/23 SB. You get a little bit of everything that makes Jackson such a fun prospect (power, walks, speed) and some of what caused him to slip to the fourteenth round (hit tool, strikeouts, general unrefined skill set). I’ve been bullish on the Tennessee senior for quite some time as you can see from these January 2015 notes…

The current number two to the top ranked Stewart is Vincent Jackson. Jackson is an outstanding athlete with considerable tools — in particular, his power stacks up quite well with Stewart’s and his plus speed blows him away — who has yet to blow scouts away at Tennessee. Inconsistent performance or not, his size and skill set evoke comparisons to two-time All-Star Alex Rios, a lofty comp at first blush but a little more palatable when you remember Rios’ earliest scouting reports and slow to manifest power as a young professional. Jackson’s blend of size, speed, raw power, athleticism, and defensive upside (above-average arm and range at present) combine to make a pretty enticing prospect. In other words, he’s also pretty good.

Of course, if that’s not far back enough for you we can always go way back to his Luella HS days when I called him a “big personal favorite as hitter” with “average speed,” a “strong arm,” and the chance to “hit velocity.” Those were the days. Jackson is a funky player to project because, while still plenty athletic and a fine runner, he’s a bit too big at 6-4, 200 pounds to fit the classic center field mold. If he’s a corner guy (he is), then the pressure on the bat goes up substantially. In what may be a cop-out, Jackson seems like one of those players who will either have the light bulb go off in a big way in the pros (potential regular in left or right) or top out as a AAAA player.

15.466 – 2B JR Davis

On JR Davis from way way way back in February 2014

Zach Alvord, formerly of Auburn and Tampa, is still well-regarded by many, but don’t sleep on JR Davis, a redshirt freshman ready to make his mark.

I guess I’m guilty of sleeping on him some as the steady hitting of Davis over the years (including junior season marks of .347/.422/.438 with 24 BB/24 K) got lost in the shuffle in the two and a half years since that initial mention. There’s clearly enough with Davis offensively to work with, so my mental line of questioning of him now moves to the defensive side of the game. As a second base prospect, Davis will have to keep on hitting as he did in his debut (.333/.362/.457 in 196 PA) to remain a realistic future big league option. If he can slide around the infield some, then his path to a long career as a utility player gets that much clearer. For what it’s worth, I’ve been told that his arm and present actions might limit it to second base as an infielder, but center field remains an intriguing viable option down the line. The name Cesar Hernandez has come up as a potential comp to his overall skill set. Now let’s go full circle in what I promise is 100% a coincidence. Turns out I’ve thrown out Hernandez as a comp on my site once before. Wouldn’t you know it was in the exact same post AND the exact same paragraph that I pulled that opening quote from? Keith Curcio got the comp then — still kind of like that one, to be honest — and Davis gets it now. Full circle.

16.496 – C Tyler Lancaster

You have to have some really impressive secondary offensive skills to hit .148 in 64 PA in your debut and still wind up with a non-disastrous 84 wRC+. That’s what a 12.5 BB% and a .185 ISO did for Tyler Lancaster (245) in his first taste of pro ball in 2016. Lancaster’s success as a hitter in pro ball will be contingent on him continuing to pile up walks and extra base hits. Insight like that is why I get paid the big bucks, folks. There was about a 50/50 split on his long-term defense prospects behind the plate based on those I’ve checked with; needless to say, if he can stick behind the plate AND hit as hoped, he’s a potential monster. Have to love that kind of upside in the sixteenth round. Even if it doesn’t work out — or if it works out to a lesser degree: maybe Lancaster catches but the bat isn’t all it’s cracked up to be or maybe he shows up as a hitter but has to move to first — it’s a great gamble. For what it’s worth, while I don’t know which of those three positive outcomes Lancaster will take, I’m bullish on him following one of those paths to the big leagues. I think he’s a regular at either first or behind the plate eventually.

18.556 – RHP Austin Sexton

There are tons of pitching prospects on the fifth starter/middle relief bubble drafted every June — see the very next pick if you don’t believe me — so an interesting study that I’ll never personally get to would be to find a way to isolate what variables keep a guy starting and what pushes a pitcher to relief. We all know there are certain barriers of entry that some teams look for in future starters — the requisite three-pitch-mix, ability to command said mix, specific height/weight benchmarks and the supposed stamina associated with them — but there are still certain x-factors beyond those that separate starters from relievers. I only have theories to offer at this point, but one that I often come back to is weighing more heavily the importance of a difference-making pitch. This is hardly a revolutionary thought, but I needed a way to introduce Austin Sexton’s (386) outstanding changeup as a potential difference-making pitch. Sexton’s change is a consistent above-average offering. It’s the biggest reason why I think he could stick in the rotation for a long time to come. The fastball is fine (88-92, 93 peak) and his breaking ball (78-80) flashes, but it’s the changeup that could carry him to a long-term role pitching every fifth day in the big leagues.

19.586 – LHP Daniel Castano

Daniel Castano did enough over his three years at Baylor to warrant this comment along the way (or, more specifically, from April 2016)…

Daniel Castano is a lefthander with size, some present velocity (87-92), and a pair of offspeed pitches (78-83 CU and 72-76 CB) that could be average or better pitches at the pro level.

Add some encouraging GB% tendencies to that profile and it’s a decent looking fifth starter, um, starter kit. Like any pitcher with that profile, the bullpen looms as a potential better (and more likely) option. I think that’s probably where Castano winds up unless he starts missing more bats as a starter. Still solid value in the nineteenth round.

20.616 – 1B Stefan Trosclair

Stefan Trosclair is an interesting potential utility player depending on how viable an option St. Louis sees him at infield spots other than first base. He spent the vast majority of his debut for the Cardinals organization at first, but also saw a few innings at both second and third. I think he’s probably a good enough athlete to pull it off, but that’s admittedly a far easier position to take as an outsider with no skin in the game. Any prospect can theoretically play anywhere until you see the ugliness that is, from personal experience, Cody Asche at second base or Ryan Howard in left field up close and personal. If Trosclair can make it work at any spot other than first base in a part-time role, he could hit himself into a big league bench job. If not, well, we all know how high the offensive bar is at first base.

22.676 – OF Mick Fennell

Mike O’Neill 2.0 was the description I got when asking around about Mick Fennell. That’s a lot of fun right off the top. Further elaboration led to a “Mike O’Neill with actual power” upside comp. That’s even better! O’Neill, long a favorite of the analytics crowd (guilty!), has never been able to turn the corner from minor league fascination to useful big league player due largely to a lack of consistent in-game power. I’m not in a position to speculate on whether or not Fennell has the power to break that big league glass ceiling — not that a lack of insight has ever stopped me before! — but, hey, I’ve heard good things. That has to count for something, right? And that .374/.446/.600 college career line (with 64 BB/32 K in 597 AB) certainly doesn’t hurt. For entertainment purposes only, here are the respective pro debuts of O’Neill and Fennell…

.283/.387/.380 with 15.2 BB% and 11.6 K% and 112 PA
.256/.366/.331 with 12.2 BB% and 8.8 K% and 147 PA

O’Neill had a .098 ISO, Fennell had a .074 ISO. Hmm. We’re talking minuscule samples in the grand scheme of things, but a (flawed) data point is still a (flawed) data point. Fennell is such an easy prospect to root for. The man’s K% in his college career is 4.6%. That’s just incredible. I’ve done no studies linking low college K-rates and professional success, but I’d have to think that overall numbers like Fennell’s AND the low K-rate have to mean something, level of competition be damned. I’d draft a guy out of any level but Little League who has hit .374/.446/.600 with 64 BB/32 K in his career in the twenty-second round every single time. Even though this was Randy Flores first draft as the man in charge, this is such a classic Cardinals pick.

This has nothing to do with anything, but, despite living almost all my life in the great state of Pennsylvania, I never knew that the California University of Pennsylvania’s nickname was the Vulcans. That’s awesome. I’m getting a t-shirt.

Oh yeah, we can’t forget the back flips.

24.736 – LHP Anthony Ciavarella

Anthony Ciavarella is an undersized lefty with a solid fastball (87-92) and a quality curve. He’s been decent when it comes to missing bats in his career (7.99 K/9 in his senior year at Monmouth) and his control has always been a strength, so maybe you get a matchup lefty down the line here.

25.766 – RHP Spencer Trayner

I think Spencer Trayner (419) has a future in a big league bullpen. He’s got a low-90s fastball (95 peak), average or better breaking ball, and a split-change that can get him loads of swings and misses when he’s feeling it. Toss in three solid years pitching out of the Tar Heels bullpen and the athleticism you’d expect from a former middle infielder, and you’ve got yourself a good looking relief prospect.

26.796 – RHP Eric Carter

Eric Carter is too old. Eric Carter is undersized. Eric Carter is too reliant on his fastball. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Eric Carter keeps sitting people down. As a senior at Louisiana, he had a 12.07 K/9 and 1.84 BB/9 in 44.0 IP. In his pro debut, Carter did this: 10.32 K/9 and 1.59 BB/9 in 22.2 IP. There are reasons to temper that enthusiasm some — add on his fly ball tendencies to that list of red flags — but I’ve always been bullish on guys who can just plain miss bats. It doesn’t hurt that Carter has a low-90s fastball (up to 94) and an inconsistent, underutilized curve that is nasty when on. Those positives outweighs the negatives, especially in the twenty-sixth round.

27.826 – RHP Mike O’Reilly

Mike O’Reilly pitched really well (9.83 K/9 and 1.99 BB/9) in his draft year at Flagler. Mike O’Reilly pitched really well (8.55 K/9 and 1.13 BB/9) in his first year as a professional. Can’t ask for much more than that.

29.866 – RHP Noel Gonzalez

One could probably ascertain that the Cardinals have been on Noel Gonzalez for a while now. That’s a safe assumption with just about any draft pick, but Gonzalez’s path from Bellevue (same school as Leland Tilley, thirty-second round pick) to Lewis-Clark (NAIA school that is always loaded) surely kept many Cardinal eyes on him over the past few seasons. That’s all I’ve got.

31.946 – 2B JD Murders

I don’t have much on JD Murders that isn’t already out there. He’s a fairly sure-handed defensive middle infielder with above-average wheels, sneaky pop, and some feel for contact. Any high school prospect signed after the tenth round is a good get in my book.

32.976 – RHP Leland Tilley

Leland Tilley went 10-1 with 9 saves in just 25 appearances for the Bellevue Bruins in 2016. That’s crazy, right? A closer with ten wins? Definitely not something you see everyday. That fits a pitcher like Tilley, a funky righthander with a delivery unlike anything most opposing hitters have ever seen. He used that delivery, a low-90s fastball, and a pair of usable breaking balls to put up the kind of numbers (9.53 K/9 and 2.00 BB/9) to get noticed by the pros. I like taking shots on relievers with unorthodox windups at this point in the draft.

33.1006 – 2B Caleb Lopes

When a guy hits .427/.521/.641 with 30 BB/10 K and 9/10 SB in 206 AB, you pay attention. In fact, Caleb Lopes inspired me to shoot off a quick email to a pal about how great his debut. It may or may not have sounded a little something like this…

You want an absurdly deep sleeper? No? TOO BAD. Get to know Caleb Lopes. Cardinals took him with the last pick in the 33rd round. That was pick 1006 overall. College shortstop who split his time in the pros at second (where the Cards announced him on draft day) and third. He hit .427/.521/.641 with 30 BB/10 K and 9/10 SB in 206 AB at West Georgia. Young for his class, too. Only turned 21-years-old this past July. Then he hit .336/.488/.420 with 30 BB/24 K and 2/2 SB in 175 PA in his debut at Johnson City.

This is what I email friends about. Unrelated, I don’t have many friends. Also unrelated, want to be friends?

34.1036 – RHP Jonathan Mulford

Adelphi University has had a player drafted in five of the eight drafts that I’ve covered since starting the site in 2009. That’s pretty impressive and something I never would have guessed in a million years. Jonathan Mulford is the latest Panther to get his shot in the pros. He had a solid senior year (8.47 K/9 and 1.72 BB/9), a fastball up to 93 MPH, and a nice curve. All in all, he’s worth a follow.

36.1096 – RHP Robbie Gordon

Pretty good year for Robbie Gordon. First no-hitter in Maryville history. First perfect game in Maryville history. First ever draft pick to come out of Maryville. First ever player from Maryville to play affiliated professional ball. And, if all that wasn’t enough, Gordon was actually pretty damn good in his debut. I mean, he was a 23-year-old with a solid low-90s heater and advanced changeup doing his thing against teenagers in the GCL, but it still counts for something. I can’t say I expect a whole lot out of a Division II pick with fine but hardly overwhelming career numbers (8.37 K/9 and 3.11 BB/9), but they can never take away 2016 from him.

37.1126 – 3B Andy Young

Andy Young made a mockery of the GCL in his admittedly short stay there: .323/.500/.452 with 7 BB/3 K in 43 PA. He then went to State College and hit comfortably above-average (.261/.322/.398 and 115 wRC+ in 182 PA) the rest of the way. Not a bad debut at all for the potential utility guy, especially when you factor in positive notes on his glove at 2B, SS, 3B, LF, and RF. I’m comfortable with putting a big league ceiling on Young based on that defensive versatility and a rapidly improving bat. The latter began in his senior season at Indiana State. His overall numbers stayed similar on the surface, but Young managed to almost completely flip his BB/K ratio into something far more palatable (30 BB/27 K) as a senior. The small sample pro debut stats quoted above give some credence that Young’s offensive bump is real and can be sustained. If that’s the case, then maybe the Cardinals really did turn a thirty-seventh round pick into a future useful big league player. Not bad.

38.1156 – RHP Robert Calvano

Robert Calvano didn’t pitch enough (6.2 innings in 2016, 5.2 innings in 2015) to get on my radar, but obviously the Cardinals saw enough in him over the years to take a late-round shot.

Unsigned Prospects and Where You Can Find Them in 2017

Jeremy Ydens (UCLA), Aaron Bond (San Jacinto JC), Jackson Lamb (Michigan), Josh Burgmann (Washington), Pat Krall (Clemson), JC Crowe (?), Cade Cabbiness (Seminole State), Matthew Ellis (UC Riverside)

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2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – Pac-12

The original plan was to go team-by-team for the biggest and baddest conferences around, but the narratives that developed organically when compiling the overall Pac-12 prospect list were too good to ignore. Look at some of the decisions that teams will have to make on just the position player prospects in this conference this year…

Logan Ice OR Colby Woodmansee
Brett Cumberland OR Jeremy Martinez OR Brian Serven
Trever Morrison OR Tommy Edman
David Greer OR Eric Filia
Cody Ramer OR Mitchell Kranson OR Timmy Robinson

And then on the pitching side we start with what has to rank among the most fascinating trios of arms in any conference in college ball: Daulton Jefferies and Cal Quantrill and Matt Krook. All three guys have legitimate arguments for the top spot. It’s not a bad year for amateur baseball fans who have smartly opted to settle in the western part of the country. We’ll get back to those three co-headliners shortly (those more interested in the pitchers can skip to the bolded parenthetical below), but first let’s get into the hitters.

.365/.460/.533 – 22 BB/5 K
.360/.483/.697 – 20 BB/5 K

Top is Matt Thaiss this year, bottom is Logan Ice so far. It’s no wonder that a friend of mine regularly refers to Ice as “Pacific NW Thaiss.” That sounds so made up, but it’s not. Anyway, Ice is a really good prospect. He’s received some national acclaim this season, yet still strikes me as one of the draft’s most underrated college bats. There are no questions about his defense behind the plate – coming into the year many considered him to be a catch-and-throw prospect with a bat that might relegate him to backup work – and his power, while maybe not .700 SLG real, is real. I don’t think a late-first round selection is unrealistic, but I’ll hedge and call him a potential huge value pick at any point after the draft’s first day. I can’t wait to start stacking the college catching board; my hunch is that prospect who comes in tenth or so would be a top three player in most classes. My only concern for Ice – a stretch, admittedly – is that teams will put off drafting college catchers early because of the belief that they can wait and still get a good one later.

Those who prefer Colby Woodmansee to Ice as the Pac-12’s best position player prospect have an equally strong case. Like Ice, Woodmansee is a near-lock to remain at a premium defensive position in the pros with enough offensive upside to profile as a potential impact player at maturation. Early on the process there were some who questioned Woodmansee’s long-term defensive outlook – shortstops who are 6-3, 200 pounds tend to unfairly get mentally moved off the position to third, a weird bit of biased thinking that I’ve been guilty of in the past – but his arm strength, hands, and first-step quickness all should allow him to remain at his college spot for the foreseeable future. Offensively there may not be one particular thing he does great, but what he does well is more than enough. Woodmansee has average to above-average raw power and speed, lots of bat speed and athleticism, and solid plate discipline. For the exact opposite reason why I think Ice and others like him might slip some on draft day, the all-around average to above-average skill set of Woodmansee at shortstop, a position as shallow as any in this draft, should help him go off the board earlier than most might think.

The trio of catchers after Ice all offer something a little bit different; for that reason, I could see them ending up in any order on any random team’s draft board. Brett Cumberland primary claim to fame is and will be his bat. His hit tool is legit and his power is really appealing. He’s also been described to me as a guy who can be pitched to while also being the kind of smart, naturally gifted hitter who can then make adjustments on the fly. His glove is more “good enough” than good, but there’s enough there that you can work with him to make it work. Jeremy Martinez is another catcher who has been described to me as “good enough” defensively, but that’s an opinion my admittedly non-scout eyes don’t see. I wrote about him briefly last month…

I’ve long thought that Jeremy Martinez has been underrated as a college player, so I’m happy to get a few sentences off about how much I like him here. Martinez was born to catch with a reliable glove and accurate arm. His offensive game is equally well-rounded with the chance for an average hit tool and average raw power to go along with his standout approach. His ceiling may not be high enough for all teams to fall in love, but he’s as good a bet as any of the college catchers in this class to have a long big league career in some capacity or another.

Martinez might not be the most exciting catcher in this class, but he’s at or near the top in terms of well-roundedness for me. It’s an imperfect comp to be sure, but he reminds me some of a less athletic version of James McCann coming out of Arkansas. While some scouts disagree about the defensive utility of Cumberland and Martinez, there are no such rumblings about the glove and arm of Brian Serven. Blessed with an arm both strong and accurate, Serven’s strong hands and plus mobility behind the plate make him a defensive weapon. Whether or not he’ll keep hitting enough to play regularly remains an open question for me – all I have on him offensively are his numbers and that he’s got average or better raw power – but the present defensive value is enough to last a long time in pro ball.

Choosing between Trever Morrison or Tommy Edman might seem easy at first, but the two Pac-12 middle infield standouts are closer in value for me than one might expect. I like Morrison’s glove at short a lot and his physical gifts (above-average arm and speed) are impressive. I’m less sure about him hitting enough to profile as a regular than most. Edman’s bat is more my speed thanks to his strong hit tool, good understanding of the strike zone, and ability to make consistent contact even when down in the count. I’ve given in to those who have long tried to convince me he’s more second baseman than shortstop, but there’s still a part of me who thinks he’s good enough to play short. For a guy with realistic ceiling of big league utility man, I can more than live with that kind of defensive future. If I really stuck to my guns here then you’d see Edman over Morrison, but for now I’ll defer to the overwhelming consensus of smarter people out there who let me know (nicely, mostly) that I was nuts for considering it. I guess the big takeaway here for me is that either player would be great value at any point after the first five rounds.

I’ve lumped David Greer and Eric Filia together because both guys can really, really hit. I think both guys can work themselves up the minor league ladder based on the strength of their hit tool (plate discipline included) alone. Defensive questions for each hitter put a cap on their respective ceilings (Greer intrigues me defensively with his plus arm and experience at 1B, 2B, 3B, and in the OF; Filia seems like left field or first base all the way), but, man, can they both hit.

The last group is probably the weirdest: we have a utility guy finally hitting after three lackluster offensive seasons, a college baseball folk hero with a fascinating defensive profile, and a powerful, tooled-up outfielder who has made slow yet steady improvements over the years. Cody Ramer is an athletic second baseman/shortstop/third baseman/outfielder with average speed and some pop having a major offensive breakout in his final season in the desert. Mitchell Kranson impressed me as the rare college catcher capable of calling his own game; now that he’s been moved to third base, I don’t know what to make of his long-term defensive prospects. His high-contact approach still intrigues me, however. Timmy Robinson‘s tools are really impressive: above-average to plus raw power, average to above-average speed, above-average to plus arm, above-average to plus range, and all kinds of physical strength. That player sounds incredible, so it should be noted that getting all of his raw ability going at the same time and translating it to usable on-field skills has been a challenge. He’s gotten a little bit better every season and now looks to be one of the draft’s most intriguing senior-signs.

There are a ton of players uncovered above that deserve more space than they’ll wind up getting here between now and June. Aaron Knapp fascinates me as an athlete with easy center field range and impact speed, but with such little power that the profile might wind up shorting before he even gets a real chance in pro ball. Mark Karaviotis would have been much higher on this list coming into the year, but a lost junior season puts his stock in limbo. Corey Dempster is one of the many Pac-12 hitters with limited track records prior to 2016 that have come alive this season. His power/speed combination and ability to man center make him intriguing. Then there’s Darrell Miller, the UCLA catcher who would have added to the already stacked group of catchers in the conference if he would have stayed healthy. Even after missing this season with a labrum injury, it still might be worth it for area guys to gauge his interest in leaving college behind for the pros. Those four are just a small taste of the depth of the conference in 2016: there are dozens of other names outside of the top ten or so that deserve draft consideration. Fun year.

(Here is the stuff on Jefferies, Quantrill, and Krook mentioned in the introduction)

Jefferies, Quantrill, and Krook in some order. That’s the limit of what I know for sure about the top of the Pac-12 pitching prospect pile. I’m not sure you could come up with an order that I’d disagree with.

Jefferies is a rock-solid future big league starting pitcher. I love Daulton Jefferies. An overly enthusiastic but well-meaning friend comped Jefferies to Chris Archer after seeing him this past summer. That’s…rich. It’s not entirely crazy, though. Velocity-wise, at his best, Jefferies can sit 90-94 and touch 97. He’s been more frequently in the 88-92 band this spring (94 peak). He’s also focused far more on his low- to mid-80s slider than his mid- to upper-70s curve. I thought both had the potential to be above-average breaking balls at the big league level, but I can’t blame him for going all-in on his potentially devastating slider. Then there’s the compact, athletic delivery and plus fastball command and above-average mid-80s change-up that flashes plus and…well, you can see why he’d get such a lofty comp. Lack of size or not, Jefferies has the kind of stuff that could make him a number two starter if everything goes his way developmentally. That’s big time. High ceiling + high floor = premium pitching prospect. I think Jefferies draft floor is where Walker Buehler, a player that D1 Baseball comped to him earlier this year, landed last year. That would be pick 24 in the first round for those of you who haven’t committed Walker Buehler’s draft position to memory yet. A case could be made (and it kind of has above, right?) that slipping any further than that would be ridiculous value for his new pro team. I think he’s worth considering in the top ten depending on how the rest of the board shakes out.

On talent alone, Cal Quantrill deserves to be right there with Jefferies as a potential top ten overall pick contender. Last year’s Tommy John surgery and the subsequent lost time in 2016, however, complicate the matter, though it’s hard to say how much. Quantrill’s 77-81 MPH change-up is one of my favorite pitches in this entire class. Easy velocity (89-95, 96 peak), a pair of interesting breaking balls, all kinds of pitchability, and that change-up…what more could you want? Good health, I suppose. A few late season starts would go a very long way in easing the minds of big league scouting directors charged with making the decision whether or not to cut a multi-million dollar check (or cheque in the case of the Canadian born Quantrill) to the Stanford righthander. I recently wondered aloud about how teams will perceive Quantrill in this his draft year…

The attrition at the top of the college pitching pile has left Cal Quantrill, yet to pitch in 2016 as he recovers from last year’s Tommy John surgery, one of the college game’s most intriguing mound prospects. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, right? I wonder if the star student out of Stanford knew this and staged the whole elbow injury to allow time for his competition to implode all over the place. That’s a joke. Not a good one, but a joke all the same.

I also have said on the record that I’d consider taking him sight unseen (in 2016) with a pick just outside the draft’s top ten. You might say I’m bullish on Quantrill’s pro prospects.

And then there’s Matt Krook! I had him second only to Alec Hansen (whoops) in my overall college pitching rankings before the season and now he’s third in his own conference. You could look at that as me being wishy-washy (not really, but maybe), me not knowing what I was doing in the first place (always a possibility), or this year’s draft class being more talented than some would like you to believe (yes). Whatever the case may be, Krook remains a legitimate first round arm with as much upside as any college pitcher throwing. Here was the pre-season take that accompanied the aforementioned ranking…

This may be a touch more speculative that some of the other names on the list since Krook missed the 2015 season after Tommy John surgery, but I’m buying all the Krook shares I can right now. He came back and impressed on the Cape enough to warrant consideration as a potential 1-1 riser. There’s no squaring up his fastball and there’s more than enough offspeed (CB and CU) to miss bats (12 K/9 in 45 freshman innings). He’s not as physical as AJ Puk, but the more advanced secondaries give him the edge for now.

I stand by that today. His fastball velocity isn’t all the way back yet (more of a steady 88-92 than 90-94), but he still gets incredible movement on the pitch. His curve has morphed into something more like a slider (or something in-between), but remains a true plus offering. Both his command and his control remain works in progress as he pitches himself back into competitive shape. Picking Krook as early as I’d recommend would take a bit of a leap of faith in his command/control woes being remedied largely by the increased passage of time separating him from his surgery. Going Krook would not be for the faint of heart, but, hey, nothing venture nothing gained, right?

There’s a steep decline after those top three names, but worry not as there are still quality arms to be had scattered across the rest of the conference. Krook’s teammate with the Ducks, Cole Irvin, has seen his stuff rebound this year close to his own pre-TJ surgery levels. I was off Irvin early last season when he was more upper-80s with a loopy curve, but he is now capable of getting it back up to 92 (still sits 85-90) with a sharper upper-70s slider that complements his firmer than before curve and consistently excellent 78-81 change. It’s back of the rotation type starter stuff if it continues to come back. Ian Hamilton could have similar upside (or better) if you’re the type who believes in him as a starter at the next level. He’s got the offspeed stuff (above-average 80-86 SL that flashes plus and an average 80-84 CU) to go through a lineup multiple times. He’s also highly athletic. Those are the points in his favor if you like him as a starter. I’m willing to be talked into it, but the way his fastball plays up in short bursts (consistently 92-96, up to 99) as opposed to the 90-93 he sits as a starter has me still liking him more as a fireman out of the pen.

If it’s a true college reliever you want, then Stephen Nogosek out of Oregon is your best bet. He’s a little bit like Hamilton in that he’s got the raw stuff to start – an honest four-pitch mix seems wasted some in relief – but his command would make longer outings untenable at this time. As a reliever, however, he’s effectively wild. Pitching out of the pen also puts him on the short list of fastest potential movers. Chris Viall seems like another reliever all the way. With lots of heat (up to 96-97) and intimidating size (6-9, 230 pounds), he could be a good one.

A pair of seniors that have intrigued me for years have put it all together in their last year of eligibility. Kyle Davis, a prospect I once thought would wind up better as a catcher than as a pitcher, has compiled strong numbers since almost his first day on campus. As I’ve said a lot in the preceding paragraphs, a big point in his favor is that he has the requisite three to four pitches needed to start. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll continue to hold down a rotation spot in the pros, but it gives him a shot. Fellow senior Ryan Mason’s scouting dossier has always looked better than his peripherals: upper-80s heat (92 peak) with plus sink, a deceptive delivery, and lots of extension thanks to a 6-6, 215 pound frame should have resulted in better than a 3.69 K/9 last season. Of course, the ugliness of his peripherals was overshadowed by his consistently strong run prevention skills (2.97 ERA last season). It’s a really weird profile, but everything seems to have caught up this year: stuff, peripherals, and run prevention all are where you’d want them to be. I remain intrigued.

I forgot I had started going team-by-team before I went to my usual overarching view of the conference. Here’s what I had on Bobby Dalbec of Arizona…

Bobby Dalbec continues to confound. More and more people I’ve spoken to are becoming open to the idea of sending him out as a pitcher in pro ball. As frustrating as he can be at the plate, I don’t think I could throw his kind of power away that easily, even if only on a temporary basis. I also don’t think I’d touch him in the first five rounds. The comparison shared with me before the season to Chris Dominguez feels more and more prescient by the day.

I had Dominguez ranked 41st on my final board back in 2009 before he was drafted 86th overall by the Giants. I’m not sure what it says (if anything) about my own evolving view on prospecting or how the industry itself has changed or how the game has shifted, but I can say with 100% certainty that Dalbec won’t rank anywhere close to where Dominguez once landed on my personal ranks. I can also say with about 95% certainty that he won’t be drafted as high as Dominguez was in 2009. Of course, a player’s draft ranking ultimately is not about where he falls on the average of all teams’ boards but rather where he eventually falls on the board of the one team that drafts him. That’s where that 5% uncertainty comes in: all it takes is one team to look at Dalbec’s two clear plus tools (raw power, arm strength) and believe they can tweak his swing to make enough contact to allow his natural ability to shine through. His upside is very real, as is the possibility he tops out as an all-or-nothing AA power hitter. I’m out on him for now, but I understand the appeal. Chicks dig the long ball.

Then I started very briefly in on Arizona State…

David Greer is one of college baseball’s best, most underrated hitters. I’d put his hit tool on the short list of best in this college class. With that much confidence in him offensively, the only real question that needs to be answered is what position he’ll play as a pro. Right now it appears that a corner outfield spot is the most likely destination, but his prior experience at both second and third will no doubt intrigue teams willing to trade a little defense for some offense at those spots.

RJ Ybarra has had a good year, a bad year, a good year, and is now in the midst of another bad year. By that logic, teams should be hot to draft him so that he has a big full season debut in 2017, right?

And then I gave up on the team-by-team approach and went back to the usual way and here we are.

Hitters

  1. Oregon State JR C Logan Ice
  2. Arizona State JR SS/2B Colby Woodmansee
  3. California SO C Brett Cumberland
  4. USC JR C/1B Jeremy Martinez
  5. Oregon State JR SS Trever Morrison
  6. Stanford JR 2B/SS Tommy Edman
  7. Arizona JR 3B/RHP Bobby Dalbec
  8. Arizona State JR C Brian Serven
  9. Arizona State JR OF/1B David Greer
  10. UCLA rSR OF Eric Filia
  11. Arizona SR 2B/SS Cody Ramer
  12. California SR 3B/C Mitchell Kranson
  13. UCLA JR OF/2B Luke Persico
  14. USC SR OF Timmy Robinson
  15. Oregon JR OF Austin Grebeck
  16. California JR OF Aaron Knapp
  17. Oregon JR SS/2B Mark Karaviotis
  18. Utah SR SS/2B Cody Scaggari
  19. Arizona SR OF Zach Gibbons
  20. USC JR OF Corey Dempster
  21. USC SR OF David Oppenheim
  22. UCLA rJR C Darrell Miller
  23. Arizona SR 1B/OF Ryan Aguilar
  24. Arizona SR OF Justin Behnke
  25. UCLA JR OF Brett Stephens
  26. California SR OF Devin Pearson
  27. Stanford JR OF Jackson Klein
  28. Oregon SR 1B/OF Phillipe Craig-St. Louis
  29. Oregon rSO OF/1B AJ Balta
  30. Oregon SR 3B/SS Matt Eureste
  31. Oregon JR OF Nick Catalano
  32. Oregon State JR 3B Caleb Hamilton
  33. USC rJR SS Reggie Southall
  34. UCLA JR OF Kort Peterson
  35. Utah SR 1B Kellen Marruffo
  36. Stanford SR 1B/C Austin Barr
  37. California SR OF/1B Nick Halamandaris
  38. USC SR OF/1B AJ Ramirez
  39. USC rSO 2B/SS Frankie Rios
  40. Oregon State JR OF Kyle Nobach
  41. Oregon State JR 1B/OF Billy King
  42. UCLA rSR OF Christoph Bono
  43. Utah rJR 3B Dallas Carroll
  44. Washington JR OF Jack Meggs
  45. Washington JR 1B Gage Matuszak
  46. Washington State JR OF Cameron Frost
  47. California rSR 1B Brenden Farney
  48. UCLA SR 2B Trent Chatterdon
  49. Washington JR SS Chris Baker
  50. Arizona State SR C RJ Ybarra
  51. California JR 2B/OF Robbie Tenerowicz
  52. Arizona JR SS Louis Boyd
  53. California rSR OF Brian Celsi
  54. Utah SR 2B Kody Davis
  55. Utah SR C AJ Young
  56. Washington JR OF MJ Hubbs
  57. Stanford SR OF Jonny Locher
  58. Washington JR OF Josh Cushing
  59. Utah JR OF Josh Rose
  60. Utah JR SS Ellis Kelly

Pitchers

  1. California JR RHP Daulton Jefferies
  2. Stanford JR RHP Cal Quantrill
  3. Oregon rSO LHP Matt Krook
  4. Oregon rJR LHP Cole Irvin
  5. Washington State JR RHP Ian Hamilton
  6. Oregon JR RHP Stephen Nogosek
  7. Stanford JR RHP Chris Viall
  8. USC SR RHP Kyle Davis
  9. Arizona State JR RHP Hever Bueno
  10. California SR RHP Ryan Mason
  11. Arizona State JR RHP Seth Martinez
  12. USC JR RHP/3B Jeff Paschke
  13. USC JR LHP Bernardo Flores
  14. UCLA JR RHP Grant Dyer
  15. Stanford JR RHP Tyler Thorne
  16. UCLA rJR RHP Tucker Forbes
  17. USC SR RHP Brooks Kriske
  18. Arizona State JR RHP Eder Erives
  19. Oregon State JR RHP Jake Thompson
  20. Oregon State SR RHP Travis Eckert
  21. Arizona SR LHP Cody Moffett
  22. USC rJR RHP Joe Navilhon
  23. Arizona SR RHP Nathan Bannister
  24. Washington SR RHP Troy Rallings
  25. Arizona JR RHP Austin Schnabel
  26. Washington SR RHP Spencer Jones
  27. Oregon State JR RHP John Pomeroy
  28. UCLA rJR RHP Nick Kern
  29. Oregon State rJR LHP Max Engelbrekt
  30. Stanford SR RHP Daniel Starwalt
  31. California JR RHP Alex Schick
  32. USC SR RHP Brent Wheatley
  33. Washington JR RHP Westin Wuethrich
  34. USC SR LHP Marc Huberman
  35. Washington SR RHP Alex Nesbitt
  36. California JR RHP Trevin Haseltine
  37. Stanford JR RHP/3B Brett Hanewich
  38. USC JR LHP/OF Andrew Wright
  39. Utah SR RHP Dalton Carroll
  40. Washington SR LHP Will Ballowe
  41. Arizona State SR RHP Eric Melbostad
  42. Arizona rSO LHP Rio Gomez
  43. Washington SR RHP Ryan Schmitten
  44. Utah JR LHP Dylan Drachler
  45. UCLA JR RHP Moises Ceja
  46. UCLA JR RHP Scott Burke
  47. Washington JR LHP Henry Baker
  48. UCLA rJR LHP Hunter Virant
  49. Arizona rSO RHP Robby Medel
  50. Arizona JR RHP Kevin Ginkel
  51. UCLA rJR RHP Chase Radan
  52. Stanford JR LHP Chris Castellanos
  53. Utah SR RHP Nolan Stouder
  54. Arizona JR LHP JC Cloney
  55. Oregon JR RHP Cooper Stiles
  56. Arizona State SR RHP/2B Jordan Aboites

Arizona

rSO LHP Rio Gomez (2016)
SR RHP Nathan Bannister (2016)
SR LHP Cody Moffett (2016)
JR RHP Austin Schnabel (2016)
rSO RHP Robby Medel (2016)
JR RHP Kevin Ginkel (2016)
JR LHP JC Cloney (2016)
JR 3B/RHP Bobby Dalbec (2016)
SR OF Zach Gibbons (2016)
SR OF Justin Behnke (2016)
SR 2B/SS Cody Ramer (2016)
SR 1B/OF Ryan Aguilar (2016)
JR SS Louis Boyd (2016)
JR 1B Michael Hoard (2016)
SO RHP Matt Hartman (2017)
SO LHP Cameron Ming (2017)
SO OF Jared Oliva (2017)
SO 1B/OF JJ Matijevic (2017)
SO C Ryan Haug (2017)
FR RHP Austin Rubick (2018)
FR RHP Cody Deason (2018)
FR RHP Michael Flynn (2018)
FR LHP/OF Randy Labaut (2018)
FR OF Alfonso Rivas (2018)
FR C Cesar Salazar (2018)

High Priority Follows: Rio Gomez, Nathan Bannister, Cody Moffett, Austin Schnabel, Robby Medel, Kevin Ginkel, JC Cloney, Bobby Dalbec, Zach Gibbons, Justin Behnke, Cody Ramer, Ryan Aguilar, Louis Boyd, Michael Hoard

Arizona State

JR RHP Hever Bueno (2016)
JR RHP Seth Martinez (2016)
JR RHP Eder Erives (2016)
SR RHP Eric Melbostad (2016)
SR RHP/2B Jordan Aboites (2016)
JR SS/2B Colby Woodmansee (2016)
JR OF/1B David Greer (2016)
SR C RJ Ybarra (2016)
JR C Brian Serven (2016)
SR OF/1B Chris Beall (2016)
JR OF Daniel Williams (2016)
JR C Zach Cerbo (2016)
SO RHP Ryan Hingst (2017)
SO LHP Tucker Baca (2017)
SO LHP/OF Andrew Shaps (2017)
SO LHP Reagan Todd (2017)
SO RHP Grant Schneider (2017)
SO LHP Eli Lingos (2017)
SO OF Coltin Gerhart (2017)
SO SS/3B Ryan Lillard (2017)
SO OF/1B Sebastian Zawada (2017)
SO 2B Andrew Snow (2017)
FR RHP Giovanni Lopez (2018)
FR RHP Garvin Alston (2018)
FR RHP Fitz Stadler (2018)
FR RHP Liam Jenkins (2018)
FR LHP Connor Higgins (2018)
FR LHP Zach Dixon (2018)
FR OF Tyler Williams (2018)
FR OF Gage Canning (2018)

High Priority Follows: Hever Bueno, Seth Martinez, Eder Erives, Eric Melbostad, Jordan Aboites, Colby Woodmansee, David Greer, RJ Ybarra, Brian Serven, Daniel Williams, Zach Cerbo

California

JR RHP Daulton Jefferies (2016)
JR RHP Alex Schick (2016)
SR RHP Ryan Mason (2016)
rJR RHP Jordan Talbot (2016)
JR RHP Trevin Haseltine (2016)
rSR RHP Keaton Siomkin (2016)
SR RHP/C Jesse Kay (2016)
JR OF Aaron Knapp (2016)
JR 2B/OF Robbie Tenerowicz (2016)
SR 3B/C Mitchell Kranson (2016)
rSR OF Brian Celsi (2016)
SR OF Devin Pearson (2016)
SR OF/1B Nick Halamandaris (2016)
SO C Brett Cumberland (2016)
rSR 1B Brenden Farney (2016)
SO RHP Jeff Bain (2017)
SO LHP Matt Ladrech (2017)
SO RHP Erik Martinez (2017)
SO SS Preston Grand Pre (2017)
SO 3B Denis Karas (2017)
FR RHP/OF Tanner Dodson (2018)
FR RHP Jake Matulovich (2018)
FR RHP Aaron Shortridge (2018)
FR RHP Connor Jackson (2018)
FR 2B/SS Ripken Reyes (2018)
FR OF Lorenzo Hampton (2018)
FR OF Jeffrey Mitchell (2018)
FR OF Jonah Davis (2018)
FR C Tyrus Greene (2018)
FR OF Cole Lemmel (2018)

High Priority Follows: Daulton Jefferies, Alex Schick, Ryan Mason, Trevin Haseltine, Aaron Knapp, Robbie Tenerowicz, Mitchell Kranson, Brian Celsi, Devin Pearson, Nick Halamandaris, Brett Cumberland, Brenden Farney

Oregon

rJR LHP Cole Irvin (2016)
rSO LHP Matt Krook (2016)
JR RHP Stephen Nogosek (2016)
JR RHP Cooper Stiles (2016)
JR OF Austin Grebeck (2016)
JR OF Nick Catalano (2016):
JR SS/2B Mark Karaviotis (2016)
rSO OF/1B AJ Balta (2016)
SR 1B/OF Phillipe Craig-St. Louis (2016)
SR 3B/SS Matt Eureste (2016)
SO LHP David Peterson (2017)
SO RHP Brac Warren (2017)
SO C Tim Susnara (2017)
SO OF Jakob Goldfarb (2017)
SO SS/2B Daniel Patzlaff (2017)
rFR C/OF Slade Heggen (2017)
rFR SS Carson Breshears (2017)
SO INF Kyle Kasser (2017)
FR RHP Isaiah Carranza (2018)
FR RHP Cody Deason (2018)
FR RHP Jacob Bennett (2018)
FR RHP/C Parker Kelly (2018)
FR RHP/INF Matt Mercer (2018)
FR SS/2B Travis Moniot (2018)
FR 3B Matt Kroon (2018)

High Priority Follows: Cole Irvin, Matt Krook, Stephen Nogosek, Cooper Stiles, Austin Grebeck, Nick Catalano, Mark Karaviotis, AJ Balta, Phillipe Craig-St. Louis, Matt Eureste

Oregon State

SR RHP Travis Eckert (2016)
JR RHP John Pomeroy (2016)
rJR LHP Max Engelbrekt (2016)
JR RHP Jake Thompson (2016)
JR SS Trever Morrison (2016)
JR C Logan Ice (2016)
JR 3B Caleb Hamilton (2016)
JR OF Kyle Nobach (2016)
JR 1B/OF Billy King (2016)
SO RHP Drew Rasmussen (2017)
SO RHP Mitch Hickey (2017)
SO RHP Luke Heimlich (2017)
rFR LHP Christian Martinek (2017)
SO LHP Ryan Mets (2017
SO 1B/C KJ Harrison (2017)
SO 2B/SS Christian Donahue (2017)
SO OF Elliott Cary (2017)
SO 3B/SS Joe Gillette (2017)
SO SS Michael Gretler (2017)
FR LHP Eric Parnow (2018)
FR LHP Jordan Britton (2018)
FR SS Cadyn Grenier (2018)
FR SS Nick Madrigal (2018)
FR OF Steven Kwan (2018)
FR OF Trevor Larnach (2018)
FR 3B Bryce Fehmel (2018)
FR C Alex O’Rourke (2018)

High Priority Follows: Travis Eckert, John Pomeroy, Max Engelbrekt, Jake Thompson, Trever Morrison, Logan Ice, Caleb Hamilton, Billy King

USC

SR RHP Brent Wheatley (2016)
SR LHP Marc Huberman (2016)
SR RHP Brooks Kriske (2016
JR LHP Bernardo Flores (2016)
rJR RHP Joe Navilhon (2016)
SR RHP Kyle Davis (2016)
JR LHP/OF Andrew Wright (2016)
JR RHP/3B Jeff Paschke (2016)
JR C/1B Jeremy Martinez (2016)
SR OF Timmy Robinson (2016)
rJR SS Reggie Southall (2016)
SR OF David Oppenheim (2016)
SR OF/1B AJ Ramirez (2016)
JR OF Corey Dempster (2016)
rSO 2B/SS Frankie Rios (2016)
JR C AJ Fritts (2016)
SO RHP Mitch Hart (2017)
SO RHP Brad Wegman (2017)
rFR RHP Bryce Dyrda (2017)
SO RHP Mason Perryman (2017)
SO 3B/SS Adalberto Carrillo (2017)
SO SS Angelo Armenta (2017)
SO INF Stephen Dubb (2017)
FR RHP Marrick Crouse (2018)
FR RHP Soloman Bates (2018)
FR LHP Quentin Longrie (2018)
FR 1B Dillon Paulson (2018)
FR INF Lars Nootbaar (2018)
FR C/RHP Cameron Stubbs (2018)

High Priority Follows: Brent Wheatley, Marc Huberman, Brooks Kriske, Bernardo Flores, Joe Navilhon, Kyle Davis, Andrew Wright, Jeff Paschke, Jeremy Martinez, Timmy Robinson, Reggie Southall, David Oppenheim, AJ Ramirez, Corey Dempster, Frankie Rios

Stanford

JR RHP Cal Quantrill (2016)
JR RHP Chris Viall (2016)
SR RHP Daniel Starwalt (2016)
JR RHP Tyler Thorne (2016)
JR LHP Chris Castellanos (2016)
rSR LHP John Hochstatter (2016)
JR RHP/3B Brett Hanewich (2016)
SR OF Jonny Locher (2016)
SR SS Bobby Zarubin (2016)
JR OF Jackson Klein (2016)
JR 2B/SS Tommy Edman (2016)
SR 1B/C Austin Barr (2016)
JR C Alex Dunlap (2016)
FR RHP Tristan Beck (2017)
SO RHP Keith Weisenberg (2017)
SO RHP Colton Hock (2017)
SO LHP Andrew Summerville (2017)
SO LHP John Henry Styles (2017)
SO LHP/OF Quinn Brodey (2017)
SO C Bryce Carter (2017)
SO SS/2B Beau Branton (2017)
SO 3B Mikey Diekroeger (2017)
SO SS Jesse Kuet (2017)
SO OF/1B Matt Winaker (2017)
FR LHP Kris Bubic (2018)
FR RHP Ben Baggett (2018)
FR SS Nico Hoerner (2018)
FR OF Brandon Wulff (2018)
FR OF/1B Nickolas Oar (2018)
FR OF Alec Wilson (2018)
FR SS Peter McEvoy (2018)
FR SS Duke Kinamon (2018)
FR 3B Nick Bellafronto (2018)

High Priority Follows: Cal Quantrill, Chris Viall, Daniel Starwalt, Tyler Thorne, Chris Castellanos, John Hochstatter, Brett Hanewich, Jonny Locher, Jackson Klein, Tommy Edman, Austin Barr, Alex Dunlap

UCLA

JR RHP Grant Dyer (2016)
rJR RHP Tucker Forbes (2016)
rJR LHP Hunter Virant (2016)
rJR RHP Nick Kern (2016)
rJR RHP Chase Radan (2016)
JR RHP Scott Burke (2016)
JR RHP Moises Ceja (2016)
JR OF/2B Luke Persico (2016)
rSR OF Eric Filia (2016)
JR OF Kort Peterson (2016)
rSR OF Christoph Bono (2016)
JR OF Brett Stephens (2016)
rJR C Darrell Miller (2016)
SR 2B Trent Chatterdon (2016)
SR 2B/OF Brett Urabe (2016)
SO RHP Griffin Canning (2017)
SO RHP Matt Trask (2017)
SO RHP Jake Bird (2017)
rFR RHP Nathan Hadley (2017)
rFR LHP Garrett Barker (2017)
rFR 1B Zander Clarke (2017)
rFR SS Scott Jarvis (2017)
SO SS/2B Nick Valaika (2017)
SO 3B/1B Sean Bouchard (2017)
FR RHP Kyle Molnar (2018)
FR LHP Justin Hooper (2018)
FR RHP Brian Gadsby (2018)
FR RHP Jonathan Olsen (2018)
FR RHP Jack Ralston (2018)
FR OF Daniel Amaral (2018)
FR INF Dayton Provost (2018)
FR 1B Jake Pries (2018)
FR OF Jordan Myrow (2018)
FR C Jake Hirabayshi (2018)

High Priority Follows: Grant Dyer, Tucker Forbes, Hunter Virant, Nick Kern, Chase Radan, Scott Burke, Moises Ceja, Luke Persico, Eric Filia, Kort Peterson, Christoph Bono, Brett Stephens, Darrell Miller, Trent Chatterdon, Brett Urabe

Washington

SR LHP Will Ballowe (2016)
JR RHP Westin Wuethrich (2016)
SR RHP Ryan Schmitten (2016)
SR RHP Alex Nesbitt (2016)
SR RHP Troy Rallings (2016)
SR RHP Spencer Jones (2016)
JR LHP Henry Baker (2016)
JR OF Jack Meggs (2016)
JR 1B Gage Matuszak (2016)
JR OF MJ Hubbs (2016)
JR OF Josh Cushing (2016)
JR SS Chris Baker (2016)
SO RHP Noah Bremer (2017)
SO 3B Nyles Nygaard (2017)
SO C Joey Morgan (2017)
FR RHP Joe DeMers (2018)
FR SS/2B AJ Graffanino (2018)
FR C Willie MacIver (2018):
FR OF Rex Stephan (2018)
FR 3B/OF Peyton Lacoste (2018)
FR 2B Dallas Tessar (2018)
FR 2B/OF Karl Kani (2018)

High Priority Follows: Will Ballowe, Westin Wuethrich, Ryan Schmitten, Alex Nesbitt, Troy Rallings, Spencer Jones, Henry Baker, Jack Meggs, Gage Matuszak, MJ Hubbs, Josh Cushing, Chris Baker

Washington State

JR RHP Ian Hamilton (2016)
JR LHP Layne Bruner (2016)
JR OF Cameron Frost (2016)
rJR 2B Shea Donlin (2016)
rJR OF Trek Stemp (2016)
SO RHP Ryan Walker (2017)
SO LHP Scotty Sunitsch (2017)
SO RHP Colby Nealy (2017)
rFR RHP Nick Leonard (2017)
SO INF Shane Matheny (2017)
SO OF Derek Chapman (2017)
SO C/OF JJ Hancock (2017)
FR RHP Parker McFadden (2018)
FR RHP Ryan Ward (2018)
FR SS Justin Harrer (2018)

High Priority Follows: Ian Hamilton, Cameron Frost, Trek Stemp

Utah

SR RHP Dalton Carroll (2016)
rJR LHP Hunter Rodriguez (2016)
SR RHP Nolan Stouder (2016)
JR LHP Dylan Drachler (2016)
SR C AJ Young (2016)
JR SS Ellis Kelly (2016)
SR SS/2B Cody Scaggari (2016)
rJR 3B Dallas Carroll (2016)
SR 2B Kody Davis (2016)
SR OF Wyler Smith (2016)
SR 1B Kellen Marruffo (2016)
JR OF Josh Rose (2016)
JR C Max Schuman (2016)
SO LHP Josh Lapiana (2017)
SO RHP Tanner Thomas (2017)
SO RHP Andre Jackson (2017)
SO RHP/OF Jayson Rose (2017)
FR RHP Riley Ottesen (2018)
FR OF DaShawn Keirsey (2018)
FR C Zach Moeller (2018)

High Priority Follows: Dalton Carroll, Hunter Rodriguez, Nolan Stouder, Dylan Drachler, AJ Young, Ellis Kelly, Cody Scaggari, Dallas Carroll, Kody Davis, Wyler Smith, Kellen Marruffo, Josh Rose, Max Schurman

2016 MLB Draft Mock Draft – March Madness 2.0

The 2016 MLB Draft will be here before we know it, so that can only mean one thing: it’s MOCK DRAFT season. It’s been a few years since I published a mock draft around here, but I figured it was finally time to get back in the game. Of course, since I can’t offer much in the way of insider intel — I’m not BA-era peak Jim Callis over here — putting together a mock would be pretty much pointless. With the proper analysis attached to each pick mock drafts can be fun and interesting reads, not to mention a great way of exposing casual fans — the number of people who Google “2016 mlb mock draft” that find this site is insane, at least relative to the four people who read on their own volition otherwise — to players they might have not yet heard of. I might attempt a mock like that between now and June. Or not. Either way, this ain’t it.

So until then (or not) we’ll have some fun and take the idea of a mock draft to the logical extreme. If “mock” means to make something seem laughably unreal or impossible, let’s make our mock draft as unreal or impossible as we can. Our second edition of this 2016 MLB Mock Draft is based on the top 34 teams (by pre-tournament seeding) in this year’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. The top 34 schools (listed below) are the only universities that teams were allowed to draft from in this mock. Unlike last week’s, however, there is no limit to how many players can be drafted off of any one school. That means some teams get nobody selected while others have multiple picks to celebrate. It’s not fair, but it’s life. Here were the universities eligible for this mock listed in descending order based on their pre-tournament seeding…

34. Butler
33. Providence
32. St. Joseph’s
31. USC
30. Colorado
29. Texas Tech
28. Oregon State
27. Iowa
26. Dayton
25. Wisconsin
24. Seton Hall
23. Arizona
22. Notre Dame
21. Texas
20. Baylor
19. Maryland
18. Purdue
17. Indiana
16. Iowa State
15. Kentucky
14. California
13. Duke
12. Texas A&M
11. Utah
10. Miami (FL)
9. West Virginia
8. Xavier
7. Villanova
6. Oklahoma
5. Michigan State
4. Oregon
3. Virginia
2. North Carolina
1. Kansas

Any 2016 MLB draft-eligible player from any of those schools is up for grabs. Let’s get mocking…

*****

1 – Philadelphia Phillies – Miami C Zack Collins

The Phillies would be tasked from picking from an impressive group of college talent if forced to comply with these ridiculous rules. Three of the arms rumored to be in the 1-1 mix in the real world — Matt Krook, Alec Hansen, and Connor Jones — would all be available to them thanks to the impressive basketball being played at Oregon, Oklahoma, and Virginia, respectively. Interestingly enough, all three are plagued with the same general concern: wildness. Jones has the most complete résumé and the least overall concern about his control (4.03 BB/9 last year, down to 2.11 BB/9 so far this year). Much has been made about Hansen’s consistently inconsistent start (6.99 BB/9) while Krook’s wild ways (7.92 BB/9) have largely been glossed over. Part of that is likely due to giving Krook an early season mulligan as he makes his way back from last year’s Tommy John surgery and part is probably due to Hansen being the higher profile player nationally, but the fact that some of the most talented arms in this college class come with major control (and command and consistency and changeup) questions can’t be ignored. The risk with either at 1-1 is just too high. As mentioned, Jones is the less risky play, but, as so often happens, comes with a little less upside. Much as I like Jones, if I’m going with a college arm with the first overall pick in a draft I want a guy I can confidently project as a potential ace. He may show enough to reach that point in the coming months, but as of today I can’t do it.

With the top pitchers out of the running, Collins becomes the clear pick. His bat is too special to pass up. The pick is made easier when you factor in the Phillies being particularly deep as an organization behind the plate. With Andrew Knapp and Jorge Alfaro set to begin the year at AAA and AA respectively, there would be little pressure for the Phils to play Collins as a catcher if they deemed him unlikely to remain there over the long haul. Ideally he’d impress as a catcher and they’d have the great eventual problem of having too many catchers — a predicted problem for hundreds of teams throughout the history of the game that has not once come to fruition — but shifting him to first and letting him know his job is to hit, hit, and hit some more isn’t the worst idea in the world. Knapp/Alfaro, Collins, Kingery, Crawford, Franco, Randolph, Herrera/Quinn, and Williams may not quite rival the Cubs young core, but it’s not half-bad either.

(I have this very underdeveloped idea about how taking Collins at 1-1 in a real draft wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world based on a comparison of using a top ten pick in the NFL Draft on a running back like Ezekiel Elliott. New conventional wisdom says you don’t draft a 1B or a HB early in the draft because you can find good ones later on, but if it’s a guy who projects to be well above-average at the position and a long-term fixture for you that you don’t have to worry about replacing otherwise…then you have to at least consider it, right? I say this as a dumb Eagles fan who has convinced himself that Elliott with the eighth pick is an attractive option depending on who else is there. With no clear cut college player emerging at 1-1 besides Corey Ray and Kyle Lewis, maybe Collins isn’t the worst idea in the world. I know I’m out on an island with that one, but so be it.)

2 – Cincinnati Reds – Oregon LHP Matt Krook

Everything written about Krook above still applies. He’s been very wild, his command still isn’t back to his pre-injury self, and his velocity (topping at 92, down from his younger peak of 95) remains a work in progress. But he’s still a lefty with a devastating slider, good size (6-3, 200), and a history of missing bats (12.00 K/9 in 2014, 13.33 K/9 this year). When part of the reason for the walks can be explained by throwing a ball that just moves so damn much naturally, it’s a little bit easier to take. At his best (healthiest), Krook features three clearly above-average pitches and the wise beyond his year’s mound savvy to allow you to dream on him heading a rotation for a long time. Adding him to Stephenson, Reed (who Krook shares some similar traits with), and Garrett (among others) would be a lot of fun.

3 – Atlanta Braves – Virginia RHP Connor Jones

Krook to the Braves would have made more sense, what with MLB’s secret mandate that Atlanta collect as many Tommy John reclamation projects as possible. Maybe having Hansen fall past them is a blessing for his formerly tight right forearm. As it is, Jones gets the call. A consistent performer like Jones with a ready-made big league out-pitch (mid-80s cut-slider) would serve as a nice balance to the mix of boom/bust pitching prospects acquired by Atlanta over the past year or two.

4 – Colorado Rockies – Oklahoma RHP Alec Hansen

Because taking just one top-four righthander from Oklahoma within a five year stretch just isn’t enough. Hansen’s fastball is an explosive enough pitch that maybe he’d be a good fit for Coors Field.

5 – Milwaukee Brewers – Virginia C Matt Thaiss

Not everybody is convinced that Thaiss is the real deal, but I am. His one big remaining question heading into the year (defense) has been answered in a decidedly positive manner this spring. He showed enough in high school to garner Brian McCann comps from Baseball America, he hit as a sophomore, and he’s off to a blistering start (including a nifty 15 BB/2 K ratio) in 2016. He’s going early in this draft due in part to our odd rules, but he’s a first round selection on merit. The Brewers have done an excellent job in the early stages of their rebuild and adding a backstop like Thaiss to push Jacob Nottingham (and perhaps make trading Jonathan Lucroy easier to sell to the fans) gives them even more options going forward.

6 – Oakland Athletics – California RHP Daulton Jefferies

A high performing college player who defies conventional scouting wisdom going to Oakland? That’ll work. Jefferies is really, really good.

7 – Miami Marlins – Kentucky 2B JaVon Shelby

I’ve mentioned the comparison before, but Shelby’s prospect profile reads similarly to me to Ian Happ’s. Happ went ninth overall last year, so Shelby going seventh in our weird little mock seems fair. Shelby is also really, really good.

8 – San Diego Padres – Notre Dame 2B Cavan Biggio

Sometimes I feel as though I’m the last remaining Cavan Biggio fan. I know that’s not literally true, but I do still believe in him as a potential long-time big league regular. Offensively he strikes me as the kind of player who will hit better as a pro than he ever did as a college player. I don’t have much of anything to back that opinion up, but this is a mock draft so unsubstantiated claims are part of the deal.

9 – Detroit Tigers – Oregon State C Logan Ice

This pick works on multiple levels for me. Most obviously, Ice’s fast start at the plate and well-established reputation behind it warrants a top ten pick in this draft over some other higher profile college peers. It also works because Detroit seems to have a thing for college catchers. As somebody with a similar thing, I get it. In recent years they’ve plucked James McCann, Bryan Holaday, Kade Scivicque, Grayson Greiner, and Shane Zeile from the college ranks, aggressively promoting many of them along the way. Holaday, a sixth rounder back in 2010, was the only one of that bunch not picked within the draft’s first five rounds. That’s where Ice was expected to land coming into the year, but he could rise up to McCann draft levels (second round) if he keeps mashing.

10 – Chicago White Sox – Oklahoma 3B Sheldon Neuse

Recently got a Mike Olt draft comparison for Sheldon Neuse. Thought that was a pretty strong comp. Also liked that it was a draft comparison and not necessarily a pro prospect match. Olt’s big league disappointments don’t change the fact that he’s a really talented ballplayer capable of looking really good for long stretches at a time. Players develop in all kinds of different ways, so expecting one guy to follow another’s path is unwise. Maybe Neuse will fulfill his promise professionally in a way that Olt wasn’t able. Maybe he’ll experience similar developmental road blocks and see his game stall in a similar manner. Olt went 49th overall in the 2010 MLB Draft; snagging Neuse at any point after that would be a steal in 2016.

11 – Seattle Mariners – Arizona 3B Bobby Dalbec

Dalbec deserves a lot of credit for battling back from a slow start to now have a more than respectable 2016 overall batting line. He also deserves respect for being one of the realest 2016 MLB Draft prospects out there. What you see is what you get with Dalbec: massive power, lots of whiffs, and a fair amount of walks. His arm and athleticism help make up for a lack of easy lateral quickness at the hot corner, so sticking at third should remain an option for the foreseeable future. The older, popular, and common comp for him has been Troy Glaus; on the flip side, I’ve heard Chris Dominguez as a possible outcome. The Glaus ship appears to have sailed, so something in between that and Dominguez would be a fine professional result.

12 – Boston Red Sox – North Carolina RHP Zac Gallen

It’ll be really interesting to see how high Gallen will rise in the real draft come June. He’s the kind of relatively safe, high-floor starting pitching prospect who either sticks in the rotation for a decade or tops out as a sixth starter better served moving to the bullpen to see if his stuff plays up there. This aggressive (pretend) pick by Boston should point to what side of that debate I side with. Gallen doesn’t do any one thing particularly well — stellar fastball command and a willingness to keep pounding in cutters stand out — but he throws five (FB, cutter, truer SL, CB, CU) pitches for strikes and competes deep into just about every start. There’s serious value in that.

13 – Tampa Bay Rays – Duke RHP Bailey Clark

On the other end of the spectrum is a guy like Bailey Clark. Clark has dynamite stuff: 90-96 FB (98 peak), mid-80s cut-SL that flashes plus, and an extra firm 87-90 split-CU with some promise. The fastball alone is a serious weapon capable of getting big league hitters out thanks the combination of velocity and natural movement. What continues to hold Clark back is pedestrian command: having great stuff is key, but falling behind every hitter undercuts that advantage. Questions about his delivery — I personally don’t stress about that so much, but it’s worth noting — and that inconsistent command could force him into the bullpen sooner rather than later. He’d be a knockout reliever if that winds up being the case, but the prospect of pro development keeping him as a starter is too tantalizing to give up on just yet.

14 – Cleveland Indians – Kentucky RHP Kyle Cody

There’s a reason Clark and Cody are back-to-back here. Just about everything written about Clark above can apply to Cody here. The big righthander from Kentucky also has the natural comparison to fellow big righthander from Kentucky Alex Meyer looming over him. I did the Twins a favor by having him go off the board one pick before they could get tempted all over again.

15 – Minnesota Twins – Kentucky RHP Zack Brown

Brown is a college righty with the three pitches to keep starting but questionable command that could necessitate a move to relief down the line. There are a lot of guys like him in every class, but I like Brown’s steady improvement across the board over the years as the tie-breaker.

16 – Los Angeles Angels – Oregon LHP Cole Irvin

Irvin is living proof that the second full year back from Tommy John surgery is when a pitcher really starts to get it all back. I can only hope that teammate Matt Krook is noticing. I guess it would be weird if he wasn’t, right? Irvin has his velocity back (88-92), his changeup remains a weapon, and the results (5.01 K/9 last year up to 9.10 K/9 this year) are trending in the right (healthy) direction.

17 – Houston Astros – USC C Jeremy Martinez

I’ve long thought that Jeremy Martinez has been underrated as a college player, so I’m happy to get a few sentences off about how much I like him here. Martinez was born to catch with a reliable glove and accurate arm. His offensive game is equally well-rounded with the chance for an average hit tool and average raw power to go along with his standout approach. His ceiling may not be high enough for all teams to fall in love, but he’s as good a bet as any of the college catchers in this class to have a long big league career in some capacity or another.

18 – New York Yankees – Texas A&M OF Nick Banks

Hunter Renfroe went thirteenth overall in the 2013 MLB Draft, so his 2016 doppelganger Nick Banks going a few spots later seems appropriate. Banks is one of the many hitters with questionable BB/K marks before the season that scouts insisted had more mature approaches at the plate than the raw numbers suggested. The scouts have been redeemed by most of those hitters — Kyle Lewis most famously — but Banks has continued to struggle (5 BB/10 K) out of the gate so far. He could still have a fine pro career without polishing up his approach — he’s a legit five-tool guy with no singular grade falling below average on most scout cards — but plugging that last remaining hole could mean the difference between good and great. Apologies here to Boomer White and JB Moss, two excellent senior-sign outfield prospects out of A&M that have decidedly outperformed Banks so far in the early going. Both guys may have hit their way into top ten round money saving pick consideration.

19 – New York Mets – Texas A&M Ryan Hendrix

Zach Jackson out of Arkansas has consistently been mentioned as my favorite college reliever who might just be able to start in the pros, but Ryan Hendrix is coming on really fast. He’s got the heat (mid-90s peak), breaking ball (low- to mid-80s CB flashes plus), and enough of a changeup (83-86) to potentially make the switch to the rotation at the next level. If not, he’s a potential quick-moving reliever with late-inning upside. Win-win!

20 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Maryland RHP Mike Shawaryn

Few players have seen their stock dip as much as Shawaryn has so far this spring. Considered by many (or just me, who can remember…) to be on the same tier as the Daulton Jefferies’ of the world coming into the season, Shawaryn has struggled with pitching effectively while dealing with a decrease in fastball velocity and flattened out offspeed stuff. He’s still a top five round prospect with big league starter upside, but no longer the potential first day pick many were hoping to see coming into the year. The positive spin is that it’s entirely possible he’s just going through a bit of a dead arm period brought about by general fatigue right now and that a little bit of rest after the draft in June will bring back the kind of stuff that looked more mid-rotation caliber than fifth starter. If that’s the case, the moment he slips out of the top two rounds would represent major value for whatever team takes a shot on him.

21 – Toronto Blue Jays – Oregon RHP Stephen Nogosek

Another college reliever! Stephen Nogosek is one of the most interesting of his kind in this year’s class. He’s not the two-pitch fire-balling righthander with the plus breaking ball that teams view as a classic late-inning type. Nogosek commands four pitches for strikes, relying more on the overall depth of his repertoire than any one singular go-to offering. Many speculate that his delivery lends itself to shorter outings, but I’m not convinced that a pro team won’t at least consider using him in the rotation at some point.

22 – Pittsburgh Pirates – Oregon State SS Trever Morrison

Morrison came into the year known more for his glove than his bat, but the junior’s hot start had many upgrading his ceiling from utility guy to potential regular. He’s cooled off a bit since then, but his glove, arm, and speed all remain intriguing above-average tools. I think really good utility guy is a more appropriate ceiling for him at the moment, but there’s still a lot of season left to play. Morrison is a surprisingly divisive prospect among those I’ve talked to, so any guesses about his draft range would be nothing more than guesses. He does feel like the kind of guy who would wind up a Pirate, so at least we’ve got that going for us.

23 – St. Louis Cardinals – Miami OF Willie Abreu

The Cardinals throw caution to the wind and bet big on tools by selecting Abreu and his ugly 7 BB/25 K ratio here in the first round. With three picks in the first, you can take a gamble like this. Abreu’s raw power is at or near the top of this class, so the logic in such a pick is easy to see.

24 – San Diego Padres – California C Brett Cumberland

I’m not sure too many casual prospect fans realize that true sophomore Cumberland, set to turn 21 on June 25, is eligible for this year’s draft. I know I have a lot less scouting notes on him than I’d typically have for a draft-eligible prospect in the midst of one of the best seasons of any position player in college baseball. The steady receiver hit really well as a freshman last year (.429 SLG with 33 BB/41 K), but has taken it to the next level so far in 2016. Good defense, very real power, and success at the college level from day one? Just what this class needs, one more top five round college catcher.

25 – San Diego Padres – Indiana RHP Jake Kelzer

The real draft will no doubt be much kinder to the Padres, but grabbing Biggio, Cumberland, and Kelzer in this universe’s draft isn’t anything to be disappointed in. Two mature bats at up-the-middle defensive positions would help San Diego continue their stated goal of building that way (the return for trade backs that up) and Kelzer, a highly athletic 6-8, 235 pound righthander with a nasty hard slider, would be a fine addition to their growing collection of arms.

26 – Chicago White Sox – Texas Tech RHP Ryan Moseley

Much like the Willie Abreu pick above, taking Moseley this high is gambling on tools over performance. I’ve long been a fan of the sinker/slider archetype and Moseley does it about as well as any pitcher in this class. When I start digging into batted ball data to find GB% in the coming weeks, he’ll be the first name I look up. On physical ability, a case could be made that Moseley deserves this first round spot. If we’re talking early season production…not so much. As we mentioned before, some young pitchers throw with so much natural movement that they are unable to effectively harness the raw stuff with which they’ve been blessed. Moseley’s track record suggests just that. Taking him this high would be a gamble that the developmental side of your organization can straighten him out. There are too many teams besides the White Sox that I’d be so confident they could pull off the trick.

27 – Baltimore Orioles – Baylor LHP Daniel Castano

I haven’t heard Daniel Castano’s name mentioned as a top ten round pick much this spring, but I don’t see why he wouldn’t be in the mix. He’s a big lefty with three average or better pitches who has made the long-awaited leap (8.51 K/9 this year, up from the 5 or so K/9 of his first two seasons). I’m in.

28 – Washington Nationals – Michigan State LHP Cameron Vieaux

Everything written about Castano above applies to Vieaux here. The only notable difference is that Vieaux’s jump in performance is a little less pronounced (8.61 K/9 this year, up from the 7 or so K/9 the two previous seasons) yet no less impressive. Vieaux also have the chance to be a four-pitch lefty in the pros, so I guess that makes two differences.

29 – Washington Nationals – Texas A&M 2B Ryne Birk

Birk has worked his tail off to become a competent defender at the keystone, so selecting him this early is a vote of confidence in his glove passing the professional barrier of quality in the eyes of his first wave of pro coaches. I think he’s more than good enough at second with an intriguing enough upside as a hitter to make a top five round pick worth it. Offensively he’s shown average power, above-average speed, and good feel for contact. Sorting out his approach will be the difference between fun utility option or solid starter once he hits pro ball. He reminds me a good bit of Trever Morrison as a prospect, right down to the slightly off spellings of their respective first names.

30 – Texas Rangers – North Carolina OF Tyler Ramirez

Ramirez doesn’t have a carrying tool that makes him an obvious future big league player, but he does a lot of things well (power, speed, glove) and leverages an ultra-patient approach to put himself in consistently positive hitter’s counts. His profile is a little bit similar to his teammate Zac Gallen’s in that both are relatively high-floor prospects without the kind of massive ceilings one would expect in a first day pick. Gallen is the better prospect, but I think many of the national guys are sleeping on Ramirez. I’ve been guilty of overrating Tar Heels hitters in the past, but Ramirez looks like the real deal. Former Carolina outfielder Tim Fedroff, a seventh round pick in 2008, seems like a reasonable draft day expectation in terms of round selected. I’d happily snap up a guy like Ramirez in that range.

31 – New York Mets – Miami OF Jacob Heyward

Steady year-to-year improvement has been the name of Heyward’s game as a Hurricane. It’s more of a fourth outfielder profile than a slam dunk future regular ceiling, but he’s a solid, well-rounded player capable of doing just enough of everything to keep you invested.

32 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Miami RHP Bryan Garcia

Garcia has late-game reliever stuff (mid-90s FB, good SL) and pedigree (15.88 K/9 this year) to get himself drafted as one of the first true college relievers in his class.

33 – St. Louis Cardinals – Michigan State RHP Dakota Mekkes

If you read this site and/or follow college ball closely, this might be the first pick to surprise in some way, shape, or form. Mekkes wasn’t a pitcher mentioned in many 2016 draft preview pieces before the start of the season, but the 6-7, 250 pound righty has opened plenty of eyes in getting off to a dominant (16.36 K/9) albeit wild (7.16 BB/9) start to 2016. His stuff backs it up (FB up to 94, interesting SL, deceptive delivery), so he’s more than just a large college man mowing down overmatched amateurs. He’s a top ten round possibility now.

34 – St. Louis Cardinals – Duke LHP Jim Ziemba

A 6-10, 230 pound lefthander who goes after hitters from a funky sidearm delivery is a great way to cap this weird mock off. The obvious Michael Freeman comp is too good to ignore here.