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2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – Sun Belt

As we enter the fourth weekend of the college season, the charade of calling these “pre-season” lists grows sillier and sillier. As I’ve mentioned before, the rankings below are based off of pre-season evaluations while the commentary will occasionally venture over into updated real world happenings. This is done for two reasons: 1) consistency with other conference lists that actually were published before the season began, and 2) a not so subtle statement that two to three years of data and copious scouting notes far outstrips the importance of a few draft season plate appearances or innings pitched. I’ve seen some sites in the past update their draft rankings and talk lustily about college players rising and falling on draft boards based only on having “good” or “bad” outcomes in a given weekend – great moves for generating traffic, by the way – and all I can do is laugh.

So, once again, the rankings are left unchanged from where I had them six weeks or so ago when I put this together, but, after running this list by a few smart people and taking a quick peek at the Sun Belt stats page after three and a half weeks, there is certainly room for improvement.

The top two names on the hitting list are scuffling so far in the early going. Cole Billingsley, a favorite of mine thanks to outstanding athleticism, easy CF range, and above-average to plus speed, has had a slow start, but figures to get things rolling before too long. He’s a high-contact hitter who doubles as one of college ball’s best bunters. The entire package adds up to standout fourth outfielder if it all works in pro ball. Steven Sensley has less of a D1 track record, but he’s still been on the prospect map for years. With Sensley, you’re buying the bat coming alive in a big way because, outside of a strong arm, his tools outside of the batter’s box don’t excite. His ranking pretty clearly reflects what I think of his bat. The two are still my favorite position player prospects in the class, but the gap has admittedly closed some within this season’s first month.

Three names that have come up time and again when talking to those in the know are Ryan Scott, Joe Robbins, and Drew Labounty. The first two guys are off to scorching starts, so it’s no shock that I’ve heard a lot about them of late. My notes on Scott are sparse, but those who like his bat really seem to like it. I have a little more on Robbins – steady glove, can play multiple infield spots, average or better wheels – but nothing in his scouting dossier suggested an offensive breakout like the one he’s having. Is it a hot three weeks worth of games? Or a sign of real, sustainable growth? Beats me, but having one more prospect to follow with interest this spring is never a bad thing. LaBounty was the one player out of the trio that I heard a lot of positive things about all offseason. He received high praise for his glovework up the middle and I was partial to his impressive plate discipline (40 BB/38 K coming into the year). So far so good for LaBounty on both sides of the ball this spring. I write it often, so what’s one more time: in a draft short on college shortstop prospects of note, the opportunity is there for some of the currently less-heralded mid-major prospects to make some moves.

Granger Studdard is another personal favorite of mine out of the Sun Belt due to his power upside, athleticism, arm strength, and speed. The last three facets of his game are far stronger than you see out of a typical first base prospect, so it’s not shock that the majority of those I spoke to who like him as well prefer him as a corner outfielder. That defensive versatility only boosts his stock. The most interesting thing about Studdard to me is how scouts have raved about his approach since his first year at Texas State. Much like what has been said about Kyle Lewis at Mercer, the buzz surrounding Studdard has been about how he really knows how to hit and approaches every plate appearance like a seasoned veteran. Like Mercer, however, the results didn’t seem to back it up: Studdard hit well in both of his college seasons, but did so while putting up BB/K ratios of 19/42 and 20/62. The disconnect between the scouting take and the on-field indicators figured to come to a head in his draft season, and, so far, the scouts look like they know a thing or two about the game. SMALL SAMPLE SIZE, but Studdard has walked twelve times in 2016 with only five strikeouts to his name. If that’s real, then you can put his standing as one of the best under-the-radar mid-major bats in the county in ink.

On (kind of) the other end of the spectrum is Matt McLean of Texas-Arlington. McLean is a good runner and savvy all-around ballplayer who (to my knowledge) isn’t being talked up by anybody as a serious draft prospect. I’m not sure whether he is or isn’t, but the way he commands the strike zone has my respect. McLean is off to a similar start as Studdard (12 BB/4 K), but differs in that it’s part of a longer track record of doing so (40 BB/19 K last year). When looking to fill out rosters late during the draft, I’d recommend McLean to my scouting director every time. I’m high on the McLean’s on the world not only for what they could become in their own right – solid org guys can occasionally turn into useful pieces over time – but also because of the unseen positives that bringing players like this into an organization can provide. I don’t think McLean possesses any magic plate discipline dust that would rub off on his teammates, but having my young guys exposed to his consistent professional approach to the game, calculated plan of attack as a hitter, aggressive yet smart style of play in all phases, and determination to succeed no matter what couldn’t hurt.

I’ve used up most of my words on hitters (again), so I’ll be brief when it comes to the most interesting Sun Belt pitchers for 2016. The two arms that have gotten the most praise from those I’ve talked to are Kevin Hill and Brayden Bouchey.

Hill is the consummate college senior tearing up younger hitters with pinpoint command and stellar sequencing. He’s capable of tossing one of his three offspeed pitches in any count, and there’s now enough fastball (up to 88-92 this year, peaking at 93) to keep hitters from sitting on it. Smarts, plus command, and solid stuff make Hill a really good senior-sign, but it’s his fantastic athleticism that helps set him apart. The entire package makes him arguably one of the best potential senior-signs in the country. One scout referred to him as “store brand Aaron Nola.” I’m in.

(I wasn’t sure how to shoehorn this in without breaking up the flow otherwise, so a parenthetical aside will have to do. Tyler Zuber and Lucas Humpal are not entirely dissimilar to Hill as prospects. All have the high baseball IQ righthander thing down; Zuber and Humpal take it up a notch with advanced changeups good enough to be used as their primary out pitch. I guess the moral of this story is that if you miss out on the (slightly) more famous Hill, there are other appealing Sun Belt options with similar strengths to target on draft day.)

Bouchey came into the year with lackluster peripherals (3.75 K/9 and 4.00 BB/9 in 36.1 IP last year) despite intriguing stuff. In weighing performance vs projection, I tend to put more weight on the former when compared to “real” scouts. You can’t scout solely off of statistical output, but it’s a really big piece of the puzzle. This is where the internet can be a bit of a bummer. To get heard, you need to go to extremes. Whether that means extolling the virtues of a player who has put up big numbers with neutral or worse scouting reports (and getting blasted for scouting the box score and discounting projection as a factor) or holding on to beliefs formed in one short look at a player despite all statistical evidence to the contrary (and getting ripped by those who believe development is linear and Heisman Trophies equate to pro success), you need to be LOUD to get recognized. Moderate approaches that attempt to balance a multitude of factors are not nearly as fun to read about, I guess. There’s no need to constantly be hedging one’s bets along the way – that’s simply not realistic – but a little patience, humility, and self-awareness on the part of the evaluator can go a long way.

I personally don’t think there’s anything about baseball that’s all that complicated, at least outside of actually playing it well at a high level. Playing is hard, but watching and forming opinions about what you’ve watched is a pretty straightforward endeavor. With few exceptions, if a player has put up impressive numbers at every level of competition along the way, then said player deserves to keep getting chances until he doesn’t. Conversely, if a player have the kind of physical ability that is apparent to a five-year old on his or her first ever day at the park, he’s entitled to a few extra shots even after he’s shown he’s not yet ready to consistently produce. There’s no need to pick a side: the draft goes forty rounds deep every year for a reason, there’s room for all types to get their shot. Some guys produce and produce and produce without it ever looking like they should be able to do the things they do; others can keep it up against a certain level of competition before their fatal flaws are exploited. Some guys take a really long time to go from toolsy athlete to high-performing ballplayer; others never really get past just being bigger, faster, and more athletic than their peers enough to develop the necessary skills they’ll need later on.

With Bouchey you get the best (or worst, if you’re a glass half-empty type) of both worlds. Coming into the season, his numbers left little to get excited about. His scouting reports, however, were uniformly upbeat: his 88-92 fastball with real sink, promising curve, plus command, deception in his delivery, and intriguing size (6-6, 210) had those who had seen him up close encouraged about his future. In his case, projection appears to be winning out over prior production, at least now that the (small sample size!) results (12.15 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9 in 16.1 IP) have caught up to his talent level. It doesn’t always work out quite this well, so we’ll enjoy it for now…and hope that Bouchey has turned the corner as a prospect. As with Hill, I’m in.

I’m less in on Joel Kuhnel. The big righty from Texas-Arlington, who incidentally reminds me of one of the many flame-throwing Dallas Baptist relievers from last year, is a favorite of many I’ve spoken to, but, for reasons both on the scouting side and the numbers side, I’m not really feeling it. It’s very likely a reliever profile (to me), so some of his value is cut off at the legs already. I do think he can be a fine bullpen piece with continued refinement — starting with a fastball that touches 96-97 and a hard 86-87 MPH slider doesn’t hurt – so depending on where he falls on draft day he could be a nice value for a team searching for a potential late-inning arm. I’ve gotten a Toddy Coffey comp for him that works in a few different ways (though I’m unclear if Kuhnel’s mound entrance is as entertaining as Coffey’s), but I think that could wind up being a little light in the long run. Not that there’s anything wrong with an eight-year career that earns you just under seven million bucks, of course. I suppose part of my relative lack of love for Kuhnel is anticipating how highly others will value him come June. It’s not ideal logic, but it’s all I’ve got for now.

(Another parenthetical just because: Todd Coffey had such a great journeyman reliever career. Look at his ERA+ by season: 96, 131, 80, 101, 142, 85, 106, 83. The gold standard for that had always been Rheal Cormier’s run with the Phillies for me [101, 74, 235, 127, 75, 297], but I think Coffey tops it with his beautiful yo-yo run. It’s like if the Giants organization were embodied by one man.)

I wrote about Reagan Bazar back in October…

Bazar is one of the bigger gambles to grace this list. He hasn’t done enough yet at Louisiana to warrant such a placement, but when he’s feeling it his stuff (mid- to upper-90s FB, promising low-80s SL) can suffocate even good hitting. Yes, I realize ranking the 6-7, 250+ pound righthander this high undermines a lot of what I said directly above. I’ll always be a sucker for big velocity and Bazar hitting 100+ certainly qualifies.

He was ranked way too high on that list and arguably too high on this list, but I just can’t quit on his velocity. I might just have to accept the fact I’ll always rank him too high and move on. But if he does put it all together…

Hitters

  1. South Alabama rJR OF/LHP Cole Billingsley
  2. Louisiana rSO 1B/OF Steven Sensley
  3. Georgia State JR OF/3B Ryan Blanton
  4. Louisiana SR 1B/2B Stefan Trosclair
  5. Texas State JR OF/1B Granger Studdard
  6. Louisiana SR OF Kyle Clement
  7. South Alabama rSO SS Drew LaBounty
  8. Georgia Southern JR 1B Ryan Cleveland
  9. Georgia State SR C Joey Roach
  10. Texas-Arlington SR OF Matt McLean
  11. Arkansas State SR OF Austin Baker
  12. Louisiana-Monroe SR C Dalton Todd
  13. Louisiana SR C Nick Thurman
  14. Arkansas-Little Rock JR OF/1B Dalton Thomas
  15. Arkansas State JR OF Garrett Rucker
  16. Georgia Southern JR OF Jordan Wren
  17. Louisiana JR OF Ishmael Edwards
  18. South Alabama rSO C/OF Jared Barnes
  19. Louisiana JR SS/2B Brad Antchak
  20. Troy JR OF/1B Trevor Davis
  21. Texas-Arlington SR OF Cody Farrell
  22. Texas-Arlington SR 2B/SS Darien McLemore
  23. Louisiana JR 3B/2B Brenn Conrad
  24. Arkansas-Little Rock SR OF Ryan Scott
  25. Louisiana JR SS/3B Joe Robbins
  26. Arkansas State SR OF Ty White
  27. Louisiana JR 3B Alex Pinero
  28. Appalachian State JR OF Tyler Stroup
  29. South Alabama JR 1B/3B Edward Paparella
  30. Arkansas State JR 2B/3B Joe Schrimpf
  31. Texas-Arlington JR 2B/OF Quintin Rohrbaugh
  32. South Alabama JR 2B/OF Adam Wolfe
  33. Arkansas State JR 2B Eric Wilcoxson
  34. Texas State SR C/1B Tanner Hill
  35. Georgia Southern rSR OF Hunter Thomas
  36. Texas State SR OF/LHP Cory Geisler
  37. South Alabama SR SS Ryan Raspino
  38. South Alabama JR 2B Matt Bolger
  39. South Alabama SR 1B Daniel Martinez
  40. Troy SR 1B/RHP Austin Hulsey
  41. Troy rJR 3B/C TJ Binder

Pitchers

  1. Louisiana JR RHP Reagan Bazar
  2. Texas-Arlington JR RHP Joel Kuhnel
  3. Arkansas State JR RHP Tyler Zuber
  4. South Alabama rSR RHP Kevin Hill
  5. Texas State SR RHP Lucas Humpal
  6. Troy SR RHP Lucas Brown
  7. Arkansas State rSO RHP Brian Ayers
  8. Texas State rSR RHP Jeremy Hallonquist
  9. Arkansas State SR RHP/OF Adam Grantham
  10. Georgia Southern SR RHP Chris Brown
  11. South Alabama SR RHP Justin Flores
  12. Louisiana-Monroe JR RHP Brayden Bouchey
  13. Texas State rJR LHP Jonathan Hennigan
  14. Appalachian State JR RHP/OF Matt Brill
  15. Arkansas State SR RHP/3B Tanner Ring
  16. Georgia State JR RHP Bryce Conley
  17. Troy JR LHP Evan Hebert
  18. South Alabama rSO RHP Austin Geyer
  19. Arkansas-Little Rock JR RHP Cody McGill
  20. Georgia Southern JR RHP Landon Hughes
  21. Appalachian State JR RHP/OF Brian Bauk
  22. Louisiana-Monroe JR RHP/2B Anthony Herrera
  23. Louisiana JR RHP Chris Charpentier
  24. Troy SR RHP Grant Bennett
  25. Georgia State SR RHP Cole Uvila
  26. Georgia State SR RHP Clayton Payne
  27. Arkansas State SR RHP/OF Derek Birginske
  28. South Alabama rSR RHP Mike Dolloff
  29. Georgia State JR LHP Devin Vainer
  30. Troy JR RHP Marc Skinner
  31. Arkansas-Little Rock JR RHP Cody Daylor
  32. South Alabama rSR RHP Cody Van Aken
  33. Louisiana SR RHP Eric Carter
  34. Appalachian State JR LHP Dallas DeVrieze
  35. Georgia State SR LHP Wayne Wages
  36. Appalachian State SR RHP Caleb McCann
  37. Arkansas-Little Rock JR RHP Reed Willenborg
  38. Louisiana SR RHP Will Bacon
  39. Georgia Southern SR RHP Ryan Frederick
  40. Arkansas State JR LHP Coulton Lee
  41. Arkansas-Little Rock JR RHP Cory Malcom
  42. South Alabama SR RHP Hunter Soleymani
  43. South Alabama SR LHP Shane McKinley
  44. Georgia Southern SR LHP Anthony Paesano
  45. South Alabama SR LHP Austin Stephens

Appalachian State

SR RHP Caleb McCann (2016)
JR RHP Sean Mason (2016)
JR LHP Dallas DeVrieze (2016)
JR RHP/OF Brian Bauk (2016)
JR RHP/OF Matt Brill (2016)
JR OF Tyler Stroup (2016)
SR 1B Grayson Atwood (2016)
SO RHP Luke Watts (2017)
SO RHP Reed Howell (2017)
SO SS Henry Davis (2017)
SO INF Conner Leonard (2017)
SO OF Drake Zupcic (2017)

High Priority Follows: Caleb McCann, Sean Mason, Dallas DeVrieze, Brian Bauk, Matt Brill, Tyler Stroup, Grayson Atwood

Arkansas State

JR RHP Tyler Zuber (2016)
rSO RHP Brian Ayers (2016)
JR LHP Coulton Lee (2016)
SR RHP/OF Derek Birginske (2016)
SR RHP/OF Adam Grantham (2016)
SR RHP/3B Tanner Ring (2016)
SR 1B Matt Burgess (2016)
JR OF Garrett Rucker (2016)
SR OF Austin Baker (2016)
SR OF Ty White (2016)
JR 2B Eric Wilcoxson (2016)
JR 2B/3B Joe Schrimpf (2016)
FR RHP Peyton Culbertson (2018)

High Priority Follows: Tyler Zuber, Brian Ayers, Coulton Lee, Derek Birginske, Adam Grantham, Tanner Ring, Matt Burgess, Garrett Rucker, Austin Baker, Ty White, Eric Wilcoxson, Joe Schrimpf

Arkansas-Little Rock

JR RHP Cody McGill (2016
JR RHP Keenan Wingfield (2016)
JR RHP Cody Daylor (2016)
SR LHP Jarrid Garcia (2016)
JR RHP Cory Malcom (2016)
JR RHP Reed Willenborg (2016)
JR OF/1B Dalton Thomas (2016)
JR OF Nik Gifford (2016)
SR OF Ryan Scott (2016)
SR 3B Kyle Kirk (2016)
FR RHP Zach Ours (2018)
FR RHP Joe Corbett (2018)
FR OF Keegan Meyn (2018)
FR C Jonathan Davis (2018)
FR 1B/OF Riley Pittman (2018)
FR INF Christian Reyes (2018)

High Priority Follows: Cody McGill, Cody Daylor, Jarrid Garcia, Cory Malcom, Reed Willenborg, Dalton Thomas, Ryan Scott

Georgia Southern

JR RHP Landon Hughes (2016)
SR RHP Chris Brown (2016)
SR RHP Ryan Frederick (2016)
rJR LHP Evan Challenger (2016)
SR LHP Anthony Paesano (2016)
rSO RHP Adam Kelly (2016)
JR OF Jordan Wren (2016)
JR INF Evan McDonald (2016)
JR 1B Ryan Cleveland (2016)
rSR OF Hunter Thomas (2016)
JR 2B/SS Cal Baker (2016)
SO LHP Connor Simmons (2017)
FR RHP Chandler Newman (2018)
FR OF CJ Ballard (2018)

High Priority Follows: Landon Hughes, Chris Brown, Ryan Frederick, Evan Challenger, Anthony Paesano, Adam Kelly, Jordan Wren, Evan McDonald, Ryan Cleveland, Hunter Thomas, Cal Baker

Georgia State

SR RHP Clayton Payne (2016)
SR LHP Wayne Wages (2016)
SR RHP Cole Uvila (2016)
SR LHP Garrett Ford (2016)
JR LHP Devin Vainer (2016)
JR RHP Bryce Conley (2016)
SR RHP Marc-André Habeck (2016)
rSR RHP Alex Hegner (2016)
JR OF/3B Ryan Blanton (2016)
SR C Joey Roach (2016)
SR OF James Clements (2016)
JR OF Jaylen Woullard (2016)
JR 3B Jarrett Hood (2016)
SR OF Cam Sperry (2016)
SO RHP Logan Barnette (2017)
SO SS Justin Jones (2017)
SO 1B Jack Thompson (2017)
SO OF Will Johnson (2017)
SO 2B Will Kilgore (2017)
FR C Nick Gatewood (2018)

High Priority Follows: Clayton Payne, Wayne Wages, Cole Uvila, Devin Vainer, Bryce Conley, Alex Hegner, Ryan Blanton, Joey Roach

Louisiana

JR RHP Reagan Bazar (2016)
SR RHP Will Bacon (2016)
SR RHP Colton Lee (2016)
SR RHP Eric Carter (2016)
JR RHP Chris Charpentier (2016)
SR C Nick Thurman (2016)
SR 1B/2B Stefan Trosclair (2016)
JR 3B/2B Brenn Conrad (2016)
JR SS/2B Brad Antchak (2016)
SR OF Kyle Clement (2016)
JR OF Ishmael Edwards (2016)
rSO 1B/OF Steven Sensley (2016)
JR 3B Alex Pinero (2016)
JR SS/3B Joe Robbins (2016)
SR OF Derek Herrington (2016)
SO RHP Wyatt Marks (2017)
SO RHP Dylan Moore (2017)
SO RHP Evan Guillory (2017)
SO RHP Logan Stoelke (2017)
SO LHP/1B Gunner Leger (2017)
SO SS/OF Kennon Fontenot (2017)
FR RHP Jacob Norman (2018)
FR RHP Nick Lee (2018)
FR LHP Hogan Harris (2018)
FR C Ryne Ray (2018)
FR 2B/SS Hunter Kasuls (2018)
FR OF Johnny Rizer (2018)
FR SS Dylon Poncho (2018)

High Priority Follows: Reagan Bazar, Will Bacon, Eric Carter, Chris Charpentier, Nick Thurman, Stefan Trosclair, Brenn Conrad, Brad Antchak, Kyle Clement, Ishmael Edwards, Steven Sensley, Alex Pinero

Louisiana-Monroe

JR RHP Brayden Bouchey (2016)
rJR RHP Chase Cater (2016)
rSR RHP Brandon Bell (2016)
rJR RHP Josh Leone (2016)
JR RHP Derek Martin (2016)
JR RHP/2B Anthony Herrera (2016)
SR C Dalton Todd (2016)
rSR OF Jacob Stockton (2016)
SR 1B Danny Springer (2016)
JR OF Cade Stone (2016)
SR OF Nathan Pugh (2016)
SO RHP/OF Keegan Curtis (2017)
SO C Spencer Hemphill (2017)
FR LHP Ethan Daily (2018)

High Priority Follows: Brayden Bouchey, Anthony Herrera, Dalton Todd, Danny Springer

South Alabama

rSR RHP Cody Van Aken (2016)
rSR RHP Kevin Hill (2016)
rSR RHP Mike Dolloff (2016)
JR LHP Thomas Huston (2016)
JR RHP Randy Bell (2016)
rSR RHP Austin Bembnowski (2016)
SR LHP Shane McKinley (2016)
SR RHP Hunter Soleymani (2016)
SR LHP Austin Stephens (2016)
SR RHP Justin Flores (2016)
rSO RHP Austin Geyer (2016)
SR RHP Ryne Long (2016)
rJR OF/LHP Cole Billingsley (2016)
SR 1B Daniel Martinez (2016)
SR SS Ryan Raspino (2016)
rSO C/OF Jared Barnes (2016)
rSO SS Drew LaBounty (2016)
JR 1B/3B Edward Paparella (2016)
JR 2B/OF Adam Wolfe (2016)
SR 1B/3B Ben Gann (2016)
JR 2B Matt Bolger (2016)
JR C Tanner Halstead (2016)
JR OF Jalen Haskin (2016)
FR LHP/OF Travis Swaggerty (2018)
FR C Carter Perkins (2018)
FR OF Dylan Hardy (2018)
FR INF Wells Davis (2018)
FR 3B/OF Brendan Donovan (2018)

High Priority Follows: Cody Van Aken, Kevin Hill, Mike Dolloff, Shane McKinley, Hunter Soleymani, Austin Stephens, Justin Flores, Austin Geyer, Cole Billingsley, Daniel Martinez, Ryan Raspino, Jared Barnes, Drew LaBounty, Edward Paparella, Adam Wolfe, Matt Bolger

Texas-Arlington

JR RHP Joel Kuhnel (2016)
SR RHP Jacob Moreland (2016)
rSO LHP Adam Meyer (2016)
SR OF Cody Farrell (2016)
SR OF Matt McLean (2016)
SR 2B/SS Darien McLemore (2016)
SR 1B Jackson Morris (2016)
SR OF Caleb Koedyker (2016)
JR C Brady Cox (2016)
JR 2B/OF Quintin Rohrbaugh (2016)
SO RHP Reid Petty (2017)
SO RHP Daniel James (2017)
SO 3B/OF Christian Hollie (2017)
SO SS/OF RJ Williams (2017)
FR 1B Noah Vaughn (2018)
FR INF Josh Minjarez (2018)

High Priority Follows: Joel Kuhnel, Adam Meyer, Cody Farrell, Matt McLean, Darien McLemore, Jackson Morris, Quintin Rohrbaugh

Texas State

SR RHP Lucas Humpal (2016)
rSR RHP Jeremy Hallonquist (2016)
SR RHP Justin Dellinger (2016)
rJR LHP Jonathan Hennigan (2016)
rSR RHP Pasquale Mazzoccoli (2016)
SR OF/LHP Cory Geisler (2016)
JR OF/1B Granger Studdard (2016)
SR C/1B Tanner Hill (2016)
SO 3B Jaylen Hubbard (2017)
SO SS Luke Sherley (2017)
SO C/2B Jared Huber (2017)
FR 2B Jonathan Ortega (2018)
FR 1B Nick Perez (2018)

High Priority Follows: Lucas Humpal, Jeremy Hallonquist, Jonathan Hennigan, Cory Geisler, Granger Studdard, Tanner Hill

Troy

SR RHP Lucas Brown (2016)
SR RHP Grant Bennett (2016)
SR LHP Austin Crook (2016)
JR RHP Marc Skinner (2016)
JR LHP Evan Hebert (2016)
rSO RHP Jesse Nelson (2016)
SR 1B/RHP Austin Hulsey (2016)
rJR 3B/C TJ Binder (2016)
JR OF/1B Trevor Davis (2016)
SR C Tripp Calhoun (2016)
SO RHP Corey Childress (2017)
SO LHP Perez Knowles (2017)
SO OF/LHP Reid Long (2017)
FR C Chase Smartt (2017)
SO SS Matt Sanders (2017)
FR RHP Zack Lightsey (2018)
FR 2B Brandon Lockridge (2018)

High Priority Follows: Lucas Brown, Grant Bennett, Marc Skinner, Evan Hebert, Austin Hulsey, TJ Binder, Trevor Davis

2016 MLB Draft Preview – College Prospects

Click here for an UPDATED LIST (October 23, 2015) if you’re into that sort of thing…

The 2013 HS class was a really good one, so it’s no shock that the 2016 college group has a chance to be so exciting. One mostly clueless guy ranked the following unsigned 2013 HS prospects in his top 100 overall prospects that year: Kyle Serrano (20), Matt Krook (35), Chris Okey (39), Ryan Boldt (41), Cavan Biggio (42), Andy McGuire (52), Connor Jones (53), Brett Morales (58), Robert Tyler (68), Keegan Thompson (69), Cal Quantrill (70), Garrett Williams (73), Zack Collins (80), JB Woodman (89), Sheldon Neuse (92), Jordan Sheffield (93), and Connor Heady (96). Phil Bickford (34) and Francis Christy (100), both eligible for this year’s draft due to their decision to attend junior colleges in 2015, were also included within the top 100 prospects of 2013. Of that group listed above I’d say only McGuire (injured) and Heady (bat hasn’t come around) have hurt their draft stock. In fact, almost all of those names listed above can make realistic claims as first round picks next June. That’s awesome. A really quick top ten before I slip and say that it’s way way way too early to be ranking players…

  1. Virginia SO RHP Connor Jones
  2. Tennessee SO RHP Kyle Serrano
  3. Notre Dame SO 2B/3B Cavan Biggio
  4. Oklahoma SO 3B Sheldon Neuse
  5. Georgia SO RHP Robert Tyler
  6. Nebraska SO OF Ryan Boldt
  7. Texas A&M SO OF Nick Banks
  8. Oklahoma SO RHP Alec Hansen
  9. Stanford SO RHP Cal Quantrill
  10. Clemson SO C Chris Okey

ACC has the bats, SEC has the pitching

First, it’s way way way too early to be ranking players in the most honest sense of the word. I think grouping players and prioritizing the potentially great prospects over the good is appropriate, but even a crazy person like myself won’t yet attempt a strict ranking. If I were to do so, ranking the pitchers would be a much easier task at this point. There’s a much clearer line between the best and the rest for me there right now.

I do believe, per the subheading above, that the ACC has a chance to become the spot for crosscheckers on the hunt for above-average position players in next year’s draft. It might be a stretch, but I can see an argument for the ACC possessing three of next year’s draft top four college infielders. Clemson SO C Chris Okey, Miami SO 1B/C Zach Collins, and Notre Dame SO 2B/3B Cavan Biggio all have a chance to go very, very high in 2016’s first round. A snappier prediction would have been about the ACC having THE top three infield bats, but Oklahoma SO 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse had to ruin those plans by being too darn good at baseball.

Still, Okey, Collins, and Biggio all have the chance to be long-term above-average regulars at demanding defensive positions; Okey and Biggio in particular could be major assets when you factor in their defensive value. I’m not sweating the relatively slow starts of Collins or Okey so far (Biggio has been great, which isn’t a shocker since he’s the most complete hitter of the trio), so you shouldn’t either. Collins has enough of the Kyle Schwarber/Travis Hafner power bat thing going on with a three-true outcomes approach to hitting that I think the bat plays at first if/when catching doesn’t work out. On the flip side, Okey moves so well behind the plate that Perfect Game compared him to a young Craig Biggio defensively back in 2013. His glove alone is almost reason enough to warrant a first day draft grade, and the fact that he could/should be a league average or better bat is what makes him a potential top ten pick in my eyes. Is it really any wonder why I like Biggio as much as I do? My old notes on him include the following: “born to hit,” “carries himself like a pro,” and “great pitch recognition.” Even better than that was the phrase “patient and aggressive all at once.” That’s my kind of hitter. It’s way too early to call it, but let’s do it anyway: Okey, Collins, and Biggio will all be first round picks in 2016.

The Hitters (including a return to gloves at short and catcher)

Keeping up with the ACC theme, Virginia SO C Matt Thaiss jumps out as another potential high round pick from looks like 2016’s best conference for bats. Thaiss is a rock solid defender who is starting to tap into his above-average raw power in a big enough way do his old Baseball America comps to Brian McCann justice. After Okey, Thaiss, and Texas SO C Tres Barrera, there’s still some quality depth. Some of the catchers from a bit off the beaten path (Santa Clara SO C Steve Berman, Grand Canyon SO C Josh Meyer) haven’t quite had the breakout second seasons I was hoping to see. Still, the overall depth at the position looks promising. Catchers are always in high demand in June, and I think this class will make many teams happy.

After Collins, first base looks grim. Two of my pre-season sleepers, Stony Brook SO 1B/OF Casey Baker and Texas State SO 1B Granger Studdard, have fallen flat so far this year. Thankfully East Carolina SO 1B/LHP Bryce Harman has come out of the gate mashing and Florida SO 1B Pete Alonso is coming off an impressive summer.

Once I figured out they weren’t the same guy, it was easy to like both Louisville SO 2B Nick Solak and Tennessee SO 2B Nick Senzel. Despite not yet making his college debut, I’m still sticking with the extremely promising LSU FR 2B/SS Greg Deichmann as the 1b to Biggio’s 1a at the position. The shortstops aren’t nearly on the level of what we have this year, but both Long Beach State SO SS Garrett Hampson and Tulane SO SS Stephen Alemais stand out as old-school defense-first prospects who could hit enough to still play every day. The aforementioned Neuse is the man at third base. Trailing him are names that include Vanderbilt FR 3B/SS Will Toffey, Clemson SO 3B/SS Weston Wilson, and Arizona SO 3B/RHP Bobby Dalbec, the closest current competitor to Neuse’s throne.

The real draw right now for fans of bad teams in search of offensive help will come in the outfield. Texas A&M SO OF Nick Banks and Nebraska SO OF Ryan Boldt appear set to battle back and forth throughout this season and next as the fight to see how high they can rise as first round picks. I’d have Boldt (who I comped to David Dahl back in HS) a tick above for the time being (better approach), but could see Banks closing the gap in short order thanks to a more impressive overall tool set (most notably raw power). Both look like safe first round picks as of now, good health pending.

The battle for the third spot is what interests me most right now. Many of the names expected to rise up (most notably Florida State OF/SS Ben DeLuzio) have taken a step back in the early going of 2015, but a lot of the athletic upside types like Florida OF Buddy Reed, Georgia SO OF Stephen Wrenn, LSU SO OF Jake Fraley, and Mississippi SO OF JB Woodman (hmm…SEC, SEC, SEC, and SEC) have stepped up in an even bigger way than hoped. Hey, did you catch that parenthetical note there? Might be time to amend one of the subheadings above…

ACC has the (infield) bats, SEC has the pitching (and outfielders)

That’s better. I’ll admit to not checking in on every single 2016 draft-eligible outfielder’s start to the 2015 season so far – I’m not even done previewing the current college season and we’re already over a month into things – but one favorite that I have noticed off to a hot start is St. John’s SO OF Michael Donadio, a really well-rounded player with an more advanced bat than most of his peers.

Power Pitchers from Power Conferences 

In what I’d consider my top tier of 2016 college pitchers, the SEC has three out of the top seven prospects. If I get a bit more inclusive and check in with the larger second tier (18 pitchers), then you’d see that an even two-thirds (12) come from the SEC. By complete luck that comes out to 25 total pitchers in the top two tiers with 15 able to call the SEC home. I’m pretty pleased with how this turned out, what with Carson Cistulli recently finding that the SEC has produced 23% of baseball’s “good pitchers” since 2010. For what it’s worth, the ACC is second (barely) only to the Pac-12 in terms of producing “good batters” since 2010. Since I amended my previous conclusion that’s no longer as relevant; not sure what the metrics say about infield prospects only. Anyway!

Power Pitchers with Changeups = $$$

One of the big early trends that pleases me to no end in college baseball in recent years is the rise of the changeup, arguably the finest offspeed pitch known to man. Virginia SO RHP Connor Jones – above-average, flashes plus. Tennessee SO RHP Kyle Serrano – inconsistent, but flashes plus when on. Florida SO RHP Brett Morales – above-average, flashes plus to plus-plus. Stanford SO RHP Cal Quantrill (RIP right elbow ligament) – plus. Those are just the righthanders from the top tier. Arkansas SO RHP Dominic Taccolini, Auburn SO RHP Keegan Thompson, Florida SO RHP Logan Shore, Mississippi State SO RHP Austin Sexton, Oklahoma State SO RHP Thomas Hatch, Maryland SO RHP Michael Shawaryn, and Alabama SO RHP Geoffrey Bramblett all throw consistently average or better changeups at present.

I think any number of the pitchers in my current top tier could make a run at 1-1 next June. Cal Quantrill’s shot is probably gone now that there’s word he’ll go under the knife for Tommy John surgery in the coming days. Connor Jones might now be the front-runner for me. Jones can get it up to the mid-90s with some of the craziest movement you’ll see, plus he can mix in three offspeed pitches (slider flashes plus, solid curve, and a hard splitter that acts as a potential plus changeup) with the know-how and ability to command everything effectively. Comps I’ve heard run the gamut from Jeff Samardzija to Dan Haren to Homer Bailey, but I’m partial to one that hit me when viewing his second start this season: Masahiro Tanaka. I’ve comped another pitcher in this class I love Kyle Serrano (ranked 20th overall in 2013) to Jarrod Parker, who once went 9th overall in the draft, in the past. Georgia SO RHP Robert Tyler throws really hard (mid-90s, 98-99 peak) with pair of secondary pitches with major upside. Brett Morales might not be on everybody’s list so close to the top, but his changeup is such a dominating pitch when on that he’s hard to leave off. Oklahoma SO RHP Alec Hansen and Oklahoma State SO LHP Garrett Williams have some fantastic Friday night showdowns ahead; Hansen’s the hard-thrower with the size scouts love while Williams is the more polished athlete with advanced offspeed stuff.

Quick, unfortunate aside not worthy of a subheading of it’s own: due to the unnatural nature of throwing a baseball at high speeds with crazy movement every year the topic of injuries has to be brought up. The 2016 MLB Draft college class is no different. Texas SO RHP Morgan Cooper, College of Charleston SO RHP Bailey Ober, and Cal Quantrill will all be closely monitored as they come back from injury that knocked out all or most of their 2015 seasons. Cooper and Ober should both be good to go relatively close to the start of the season while Quantrill will be lucky to be back by mid-season at the earliest. The upside of a healthy Quantrill and the timing of his injury put him on any short list of most fascinating draft prospects for 2016 right now. He was a top ten slam dunk for me pre-injury…and I wouldn’t rule him out from getting back there if he can avoid any immediate post-rehab setbacks.

Power Pitchers with Changeups from Power Conferences >>> Everybody Else 

A lot will happen between now and June of 2016 – I’ll no longer be in my twenties, for instance – so it’s foolhardy to suggest anything I say now should be written in ink. My one bummer of a prediction is that college baseball’s non-power conferences appear primed to take a backseat to the traditional powers in 2016. I say that as a long-time advocate for players who don’t get written about every single Thursday by every single national college baseball publication. The monster recruits of 2013 that went unsigned and went to big-time schools have almost all panned out, effectively crowding out the little guys in next year’s draft class. There is hope, however. Pitchers from Air Force, Central Michigan, and Kent State should rise way up boards. There are even guys from Northwestern State, Albany, High Point, and Sacred Heart that have top five round upside or better.

Way, way, way too early college follow lists that are unranked and as inclusive as possible. I left a lot of players on even though they are off to verrrrrry slow starts this year because at this point scouting reports trump performance by a silly margin. If I left off anybody (particularly if it’s a son/nephew/BFF/player on your favorite team), assume it’s a mistake and gently remind me in the comments or via email.

C

Clemson SO C Chris Okey
NC State SO C/3B Andrew Knizner
Virginia SO C Matt Thaiss
Tulane SO C Jake Rogers
Mississippi State SO C Gavin Collins
Texas SO C Tres Barrera
Furman SO C Cameron Whitehead
Murray State SO C Tyler Lawrence
USC SO C/1B Jeremy Martinez
Maryland SO C/1B Nick Cieri
Pepperdine SO C Aaron Barnett
Santa Clara SO C Steve Berman
Grand Canyon SO C Josh Meyer
Ball State SO C Jarett Rindfleisch

1B

Miami SO 1B/C Zack Collins
East Carolina SO 1B/LHP Bryce Harman
Florida SO 1B Pete Alonso
Stony Brook SO 1B/OF Casey Baker
Texas State SO 1B Granger Studdard

2B

Notre Dame SO 2B/3B Cavan Biggio
Louisville SO 2B Nick Solak
Notre Dame SO 2B/SS Kyle Fiala
Wake Forest SO 2B/OF Nate Mondou
LSU FR 2B/SS Greg Deichmann
Tennessee SO 2B/3B Nick Senzel
Texas A&M SO 2B/OF Ryne Birk
Columbia SO 2B Will Savage
Florida Atlantic SO 2B/SS Stephen Kerr

SS

Long Beach State SO SS Garrett Hampson
Virginia Tech SO SS Ricky Surum
Tulane SO SS Stephen Alemais
Mississippi FR SS/2B Tate Blackman
Mississippi SO SS/2B Errol Robinson
Arizona State SO SS/2B Colby Woodmansee
Sacred Heart SO SS Zack Short
Austin Peay State SO SS/3B Logan Gray
Stanford SO SS Tommy Edman
San Diego FR SS/2B Bryson Brigman
Central Michigan SO SS Alex Borglin
Coastal Carolina SO SS/2B Michael Paez

3B

Oklahoma SO 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse
Clemson SO 3B/SS Weston Wilson
Louisville rFR 3B/SS Blake Tiberi
Vanderbilt FR 3B/SS Will Toffey
Texas A&M SO 3B/C Ronnie Gideon
Oklahoma State SO 3B Andrew Rosa
Texas SO 3B Andy McGuire
Arizona SO 3B/RHP Bobby Dalbec
Bradley SO 3B Spencer Gaa

OF

Texas A&M SO OF Nick Banks
Nebraska SO OF Ryan Boldt
Florida State SO OF/SS Ben DeLuzio
Louisville SO OF Corey Ray
Miami SO OF Willie Abreu
LSU SO OF Jake Fraley
Georgia SO OF Stephen Wrenn
Mississippi SO OF JB Woodman
Arkansas SO OF Andrew Benintendi
Arkansas FR OF Luke Bonfield
Vanderbilt SO OF/1B Bryan Reynolds
Florida SO OF Buddy Reed
Oklahoma SO OF Cody Thomas
Oklahoma State SO OF Ryan Sluder
St. John’s SO OF Michael Donadio
Mercer SO OF Kyle Lewis
Samford SO OF Heath Quinn
UCLA SO OF/2B Luke Persico
UCLA SO OF Brett Stephens
Washington State SO OF Cameron Frost
Ohio State SO OF Ronnie Dawson
Ohio State SO OF Troy Montgomery
Hawaii SO OF/2B Marcus Doi
UC Riverside SO OF Vince Fernandez
BYU SO OF Brennon Lund
Loyola Marymount SO OF Austin Miller
Ball State SO OF Alex Call
Jacksonville SO OF Austin Hays
Nevada SO OF/LHP Trenton Brooks

P

Virginia SO RHP Connor Jones
Tennessee SO RHP Kyle Serrano
Georgia SO RHP Robert Tyler
Florida SO RHP Brett Morales
Oklahoma SO RHP Alec Hansen
Oklahoma State SO LHP Garrett Williams
Stanford SO RHP Cal Quantrill
Arkansas SO RHP Dominic Taccolini
Auburn SO RHP/1B Keegan Thompson
South Carolina SO RHP Wil Crowe
Florida SO LHP/1B AJ Puk
Florida SO RHP Logan Shore
Mississippi State SO RHP Austin Sexton
Oklahoma State SO RHP Thomas Hatch
Texas SO RHP Morgan Cooper
Oregon SO LHP Matt Krook
Oregon State FR RHP Drew Rasmussen
Arkansas SO RHP Zach Jackson
Vanderbilt rFR RHP Jordan Sheffield
Maryland SO RHP Mike Shawaryn
College of Charleston SO RHP Bailey Ober
Louisiana SO RHP Reagan Bazar
Alabama SO RHP Geoffrey Bramblett
Connecticut SO LHP Anthony Kay
California SO RHP Daulton Jefferies
Boston College SO RHP Justin Dunn
Louisville SO RHP Zack Burdi
Louisville SO LHP Drew Harrington
Miami SO RHP/1B Derik Beauprez
Miami SO RHP Bryan Garcia
North Carolina SO RHP/SS Spencer Trayner
Pittsburgh SO RHP TJ Zeuch
Houston SO RHP Andrew Lantrip
Houston SO RHP Marshall Kasowski
Tulane SO RHP JP France
LSU SO LHP Jared Poche
South Carolina SO RHP Matt Vogel
Alabama SO RHP Nick Eicholtz
Georgia SO LHP Connor Jones
Vanderbilt SO RHP Hayden Stone
Florida SO RHP Dane Dunning
Mississippi State SO RHP Dakota Hudson
Texas A&M SO RHP Ryan Hendrix
Oklahoma SO RHP Jake Elliott
TCU SO RHP Brian Howard
Texas Tech SO LHP Ty Damron
Arizona SO RHP Austin Schnabel
Arizona State SO RHP Hever Bueno
Washington State SO RHP Ian Hamilton
Michigan SO LHP Brett Adcock
Nebraska SO RHP Derek Burkamper
Pacific SO RHP Vince Arobio
Wichita State SO LHP/1B Sam Hilliard
Air Force SO RHP/1B Griffin Jax
Central Michigan SO LHP/1B Nick Deeg
Kent State SO RHP Andy Ravel
Northwestern State SO RHP Adam Oller
Albany SO RHP Stephen Woods
Elon SO RHP/C Chris Hall
Stetson SO RHP Mitchell Jordan
High Point SO RHP Cas Silber
Longwood SO RHP Mitchell Kuebbing
Sacred Heart SO RHP Jason Foley