Home » Posts tagged 'David Bednar'
Tag Archives: David Bednar
Top 500 Prospects Drafted by San Diego in 2016
20 – Cal Quantrill
52 – Eric Lauer
66 – Buddy Reed
83 – Reggie Lawson
134 – Mason Thompson
202 – Lake Bachar
248 – Hudson Sanchez
262 – Tre Carter
302 – Boomer White
417 – Ethan Skender
429 – David Bednar
1.8 – RHP Cal Quantrill
One team needed to be bold and take the chance on Cal Quantrill’s (20) surgically repaired right elbow in the first round. Good for San Diego for being that team. Getting a guy who would have been squarely in the 1-1 mix if healthy with the eighth overall pick is exactly the kind of draft day gamble a team like the Padres ought to be taking. There were safer players to be had when their spot in the first round came up, but they went big. I respect that. On Quantrill from April 2016…
On talent alone, Cal Quantrill deserves to be right there with Jefferies as a potential top ten overall pick contender. Last year’s Tommy John surgery and the subsequent lost time in 2016, however, complicate the matter, though it’s hard to say how much. Quantrill’s 77-81 MPH change-up is one of my favorite pitches in this entire class. Easy velocity (89-95, 96 peak), a pair of interesting breaking balls, all kinds of pitchability, and that change-up…what more could you want? Good health, I suppose. A few late season starts would go a very long way in easing the minds of big league scouting directors charged with making the decision whether or not to cut a multi-million dollar check (or cheque in the case of the Canadian born Quantrill) to the Stanford righthander. I recently wondered aloud about how teams will perceive Quantrill in this his draft year…
The attrition at the top of the college pitching pile has left Cal Quantrill, yet to pitch in 2016 as he recovers from last year’s Tommy John surgery, one of the college game’s most intriguing mound prospects. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, right? I wonder if the star student out of Stanford knew this and staged the whole elbow injury to allow time for his competition to implode all over the place. That’s a joke. Not a good one, but a joke all the same.
I also have said on the record that I’d consider taking him sight unseen (in 2016) with a pick just outside the draft’s top ten. You might say I’m bullish on Quantrill’s pro prospects.
The Padres went with Quantrill with a pick just inside the draft’s top ten, but otherwise we were on the same page here. Two small things from my pre-draft notes on Quantrill that I think are worth pulling out…
injury and a year’s lost development are factors to consider, but hardly deal-breakers;
This bears repeating as often as tolerated. Quantrill missed a whole damn season and still went eighth overall in the draft. Crazier yet, nobody around the game really batted an eye. I realize part of that was the relative weakness at the top of this year’s draft class pushing anybody who has ever showed any semblance of impact upside up the board, but still. A major injury and a critical year of development lost didn’t slow down the Quantrill hype train one iota. That has to mean something, right? Then there was this…
as much as I love him (easily the top arm in the college class if healthy), many focus on the injury red flag and gloss over his still underseasoned breaking ball
There’s my actual concern with Quantrill and the primary reason I dropped him a little bit lower on my board than I had originally anticipated I might. Quantrill’s fastball is legit: 90-96 MPH, mature command, serious movement. His changeup is, as I said in April, one of my favorite pitches in the entire class. At 77-81 MPH, it has tons of separation from his heater and comes out of his hand in much the same fashion. It’s also a bit of a diver, making it a really difficult pitch to square up if you’re willing and able to pull the trigger on it in the first place. Those two pitches give Quantrill a really high floor from the jump; it’s a tired comp that I use on all plus fastball/changeup righthanders with projection, but a successful career in relief a la Ryan Madson (sub in Joaquin Benoit, Tyler Clippard, or your favorite CU-heavy RP if you’re sick of me using Madson) seems like a more than respectable low-end outcome.
To achieve something more, however, Quantrill will have to do what Madson and so many others like him have failed to accomplish. Quantrill will have to master his breaking ball. For now, it’s a mid-70s curve that has slowly morphed into a harder 80-84 MPH slider. Whatever version you prefer, it’s really no more than an average at best pitch as of now. In Quantrill’s favor is time (especially when factoring in innings lost due to injury and the increased ease of throwing quality breaking balls the more distance is put between the present and a past elbow surgery), athleticism (it’s not an exact science, but better athlete = better delivery = more consistency = more frequent quality opportunities to work in breaking ball = better breaking ball), and makeup (bloodlines, work ethic, smarts, etc.). I’m willing to bet his slider becomes at least an average pitch for him, if not better. With his existing plus fastball/changeup combo, that would make him a potential game one playoff starting caliber pitcher. It’s not a perfect comp for a variety of reasons, but Quantrill’s upside could be just about a half-step down from what Zack Greinke has done in the big leagues so far.
1.24 – SS Hudson Potts
Fairly loud rumors of a pre-draft deal led Hudson Potts (née Sanchez) to going off the board to San Diego in the first round. Money saved with his selection was meant to go to Jay Groome earlier in the round, but Boston foiled those plans by taking the big prep lefty from Jersey with the twelfth overall pick. The Padres pressed on with their guy anyway and could be rewarded for their faith with a really solid all-around ballplayer. “Does so many things well” was the simple yet true line from Hudson Potts’s (248) pre-draft notes on the site. Chance for average hit, average to above-average power, average speed, average arm, well above-average (plus upside) defense at the hot corner…that’s pretty much the definition of a well-rounded prospect. His long-term defensive home will be something to monitor going forward — most thought third base (61.0 innings played there in his debut) for sure, but I know there are some who saw him this summer who think that short (210.2 IP) could work, not to mention a vocal minority who think his arm plays best at second (54.0 IP) — and his offensive game should take some time to mature (having played his entire first pro season at 17, Potts is one of the youngest prospects in this class), but a consistent above-average regular is an upside worth “overdrafting” in the first round.
1.25 – LHP Eric Lauer
On Eric Lauer (52) from February 2016…
As much as I like all three of those pitchers, there’s still a decent-sized gap between Eric Lauer and the field. Lauer, the third lefthander in my MAC top four, combines the best of all of the prospects below him on the rankings. There isn’t a box that he doesn’t check when looking for a potentially quick-moving above-average mid-rotation big league starting pitcher. He’s an athletic (like Plesac) lefthander (like Deeg/Akin), with good size (like Deeg/Plesac), very strong performance indicators (10.78 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9), above-average heat (88-94) that he commands like a pro, and a complete assortment of offspeed pitches (74-77 CB, 78-82 SL, emerging CU) he can throw in any count. One could quibble by noting there’s no singular knockout pitch here – maybe with continued work one of his secondaries can become a consistent plus pitch, but certainly not presently – so maybe Lauer’s best case scenario outcome isn’t quite that of some of his peers across the country, but that’s a nitpick for a still impressive ceiling/high floor starting arm. Maybe you don’t love him – I kind of do, clearly…but maybe you don’t – but he’s still a prospect that’s hard not to at least like.
Very little to quibble with when it comes to Eric Lauer. I guess you could make a strained comparison between Lauer’s lack of a sure strikeout pitch and Hudson Potts’s lack of a clear carrying tool, but the former has two truly outstanding years at Kent State (and one merely very good one) under his belt to help assuage that concern. If a guy doesn’t have that one go-to pitch to sit opposing batters down, then how exactly do you explain 2015 (10.78 K/9, 1.99 ERA), 2016 (10.82 K/9, 0.69 ERA), and his pro debut (10.74 K/9, 2.03 ERA)? Even without premium velocity (88-92, 94 peak), Lauer misses bushels of bats with a full collection of offspeed offerings. His 72-78 curve is at least an average pitch, his 80-86 cut-slider is consistently above-average, and his 83-85 changeup should be at least an average pitch with continued work. That kind of diversity on top of pinpoint fastball command (easy above-average to plus) makes Lauer a damn near ideal candidate for a very long successful career as a mid-rotation starting pitcher. I’d put his ceiling at even higher than that: mid-rotation starting pitcher with flashes of greatness possible in any given season. Part of this enthusiasm stems from the perspective gained from being away from the pre-draft bubble — I can’t prove it, but stands to reason that prospects with flashier skill sets gain the edge on steadier performers in the immediate days before the draft; it’s as true in other sports as it is in baseball, there’s no shame in trying to hit a solid single rather than always swinging from the heels — and part of it comes from the steady stream of positive comments I’ve gotten on Lauer since turning pro. There’s something about Lauer that makes smarter baseball men and women than myself want to compare him to some really excellent big league pitchers. I’ve heard “bigger, badder Wei-Yin Chen,” “better conditioned Hyun-Jin Ryu,” and Jose Quintana (intrigued by this, though Quintana has all but ditched his slider/cutter now). I’ll throw out my own JA Happ comp. I’ll also throw out an almost certainly irresponsible comparison that even the person making didn’t want to tell me at first: Cliff Lee. A ceiling like any of those guys and a reasonable fifth starter/swingman floor (if healthy) make Lauer one of the draft’s most appealing low-risk/high-reward prospects. San Diego got him with a pick far more in line with his talent than my pre-draft ranking suggested.
2.48 – OF Buddy Reed
The evaluation on (66) Buddy Reed is refreshingly straight forward: plus to plus-plus speed, above-average to plus arm, easy plus center field range, and no idea whether or not he’ll hit enough to ever be more than a speed/defense fifth outfielder. I think his non-offensive skills are so impressive that he’ll be a big league player at some point regardless of what he does or doesn’t do at the plate. When you see guys like Tony Gwynn Jr., Sam Fuld, Leonys Martin, Juan Lagares, Kevin Pillar, Jarrod Dyson, Craig Gentry, Nyjer Morgan, and Peter Bourjos all compile over 1,000 plate appearances this decade without a single one of them putting up a wRC+ of 90 in that time span, it becomes pretty clear that center field defense and speed will always be a priority for some teams at the highest level. One contact put his floor as Justin Maxwell: good defender and useful in a platoon and off the bench against LHP (Reed is a switch-hitter). I can dig it.
If, however, Reed figures things out as a hitter, then watch out. An athlete like this with something going for him at the plate could be a potential superstar. Of course, there’s very little evidence in Reed’s scouting background and performance on the field that suggest a breakout is coming. This is where I respectfully bow out of the deep scouting conversation and leave it to those who want to break down his swing plane and pitch recognition and bat speed and bat control and whatever else they claim either held him back when he doesn’t make it or changed drastically if he does. Tossing around nebulous scouting terms is a fantastic way to cover yourself in whatever direction a player’s career takes him. “It wasn’t my evaluation that was wrong, it’s just that the player developed unexpectedly by changing his approach/swing/mechanics/whatever in the pros.” Pretty brilliant way to keep things as “inside baseball” as possible while propping yourself up as one of the few blessed souls capable of watching grown men play a sport with a critical eye. It’s all junk science and anybody who tells you differently is just fighting to protect their own self-interests. It’s the way the world works. You have to sound authoritative enough to keep an audience while being sure to speak the right insider language to keep all the dummies not smart enough to crack the inner-circle at bay. The most infuriating thing of all about this is how quickly an outsider assimilates to the inside. The example would be an internet nobody like me getting hired by a team and suddenly completing changing his position on how much smarter those IN THE INDUSTRY are about the game. Happens all the time. People go from being curious and asking questions and having fun on the internet to super serious bullies who mock those who show the same curiosity and joy for the game they once exhibited. Everybody wants to belong to something bigger, I guess. If that means turning their back on their actual beliefs to parrot the self-preserving company line, then so be it.
Anyway, I’ve used the shrugging emoticon ( ¯\_(ツ)_/¯) one time too many during these draft reviews, so I’ll stay away from it here. But if you asked me whether or not Reed would hit enough to be an above-average all-around contributor in the big leagues, that would be my honest answer. My instincts say probably not — despite some of the snark in the paragraph above the scouting buzz is not meaningless, plus the historical track record of college hitters with career .275/.353/.384 lines (84 BB/156 K) isn’t great — but spending a second round pick to find out feels well worth it, especially if your own scouts have seen something in Reed that others have not. He’s a big league player for me whether he hits or not; now we wait and see what kind of hitter he’ll turn out to be.
2.71 – RHP Reggie Lawson
This is a really cool draft by San Diego. They keep drafting players I like that I didn’t even know I liked as much as I do until thinking about them some more. I like players like that. Players like that tend to be players I’m particularly intrigued in, but would be too chicken to draft as high as necessary to actually land them. Reggie Lawson (83) is exactly like that. Crazy athletic, tremendous fastball movement, burgeoning power breaking ball, and inconsistent yet improved command. That’s a fun prospect.
A really off-the-wall comparison for Lawson that I think works: Tommy Greene. That may not be the most flattering of comps at first glance — on one hand, sure you’d take a guy good enough to start 97 games in the big leagues; on the other, only 97 games and a 93 ERA+ isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire — but peak healthy Tommy Greene was really good. In fact, I’d argue that Greene was legitimately great in 1993 — an admittedly magical year for a 7-year-old fan that has no doubt warped my own baseball worldview including defending Greene against all comers — and could have been on the verge of a major breakout (he was only 26 in 1993) if not for a string of unfortunate arm injuries that wound up ending his career in the big leagues shortly after his 30th birthday. You don’t have to take my word for it, though: “He could have been a great pitcher,’’ former major league advance scout Eddie Lyons told staff writer Chuck Carree. “He could have been another Catfish Hunter.’’ Or this…
“Believe me, it is easy to catch guys like this,” said cather Darren Daulton, who has seen Greene complete his last five games. “He reminds me of Doc Gooden. A power pitcher who’s developed breaking pitches and has command of them. Guys with stuff like that, they’re illegal in seven states.”
A healthy Greene shares that big fastball/power breaking ball starting point with Lawson — 88-94 and up to 96 with his heat; above-average mid-70s breaking ball that flashes plus when thrown with a little extra behind it — not to mention exceptional athleticism and a chance to be a non-zero at the plate. Toss in a usable change with a chance to be average in time and Lawson has the kind of upside that could give him a few seasons that resemble 1993 Tommy Greene.
3.85 – RHP Mason Thompson
From my notes on Mason Thompson (134): “if healthy, look out.” The third round feels like an opportune time for San Diego to bet on the return to full health of Thompson’s right arm. At his best (and healthiest), Thompson sits 88-92 (94 peak) with a quality mid-70s curve and a standout low-80s changeup that flashes plus. Thompson’s upside is high enough that he’s on the short list of players I’m most excited to see for myself in 2017. Between this pick, Cal Quantrill, Eric Lauer, Reggie Lawson, and Lake Bachar, San Diego low-key replenished their starting pitching depth before round five had the chance to wrap up. When you add in potential relief arms like Lucchesi, Stillman, Dallas, Sheckler, Scholtens, Galindo, Zimmerman, and Bednar, you can begin to see an argument for the Padres having one of if not the best pitching drafts in 2016.
4.144 – RHP Joey Lucchesi
Joey Lucchesi likes to throw fastballs. Joey Lucchesi has a really good fastball. Joey Lucchesi is really good at baseball…
12.08 K/9 – 3.00 BB/9 – 2.19 ERA – 111.0 IP
12.00 K/9 – 0.64 BB/9 – 1.29 ERA – 42.0 IP
Top is what he did at Southeast Missouri State as a senior and bottom is what he did in the pros after signing. The man can flat miss bats. Equipped with a quality heater (90-94) and decent curve coming out of a funky delivery, Lucchesi has a long career of big league relief work written all over him.
5.144 – RHP Lake Bachar
ABA: Always Bet on Athleticism. If you follow that rule during the MLB Draft, you’re more than likely to come out ahead, especially as it pertains to pitchers. Lake Bachar (202) is an athlete. He also throws a fastball that can get up to 95 (90-94 typically), a pair of average breaking balls (83-85 slider, mid-70s curve) with more upside than that, and a usable but raw low-80s change. I like this one a lot.
6.174 – RHP Will Stillman
This is not one of my better takes because the two have less in common the more you think about it, but here goes: Will Stillman is like the Eric Lauer of relievers. Ignoring all the obvious differences leaves us with two college pitchers who consistently produced with well-rounded arsenals but still have plenty of doubters in certain circles who think of them as “stat” picks and not “scout” picks. Stillman has long had a good fastball (88-92, 94 peak), but took it up a notch in the pros (more 92-96 than not). He leans on the heat, but can also throw a pair of quality offspeed pitches (curve, change). The 6-4, 180 pound righthander could still have a little more in the tank as he continues to fill out. Even slight improvements in control — Stillman walked 4.99 batters per nine in his senior season at Wofford (his best full season mark) and 4.89 batters per nine in his pro debut — would make him a potential late-inning option for San Diego down the line. I get that I’m repeating myself too often, but, man, I like this pick, too. The Padres big league pitching staff in 2017 might be one of the worst we’ve seen in some time, but the pitching depth they are accumulating in the minors could change that in a hurry.
7.204 – LHP Dan Dallas
Any lefthanded teenager capable of living in the low-90s (87-92, specifically) with his fastball who can also throw a decent low-70s curve is all right in my book. That’s Dan Dallas. There may not be a ton of projection left in his game, but his present stuff is solid enough to justify a seventh round shot.
8.234 – LHP Ben Sheckler
I won’t pretend to be an expert on Cornerstone University’s first ever MLB draft pick, but everything I’ve come to learn about Ben Sheckler since draft day sounds pretty good. The 6-8, 240 pound lefthander couldn’t be built much more differently than the pitching prospect taken just one round earlier (Dan Dallas), but similar relief upside with an outside shot to keep starting seems like a fair forecast for the pair. Sheckler is an ascending talent who gets major sink on a low-90s fastball (90-94), a pitch he used in tandem with an emerging slider to get ground balls on a whopping 71.15% of all batted balls against him in his debut.
Since I knew nothing of Sheckler as of a few weeks ago when I began writing this thing up, I asked around if there were any decent comps for him. I got three fun ones, but all came with qualifiers. Ben Sheckler reminded people of Brett Anderson (“but not quite that good”), Chad Qualls (“but lefthanded”), and Marc Rzepczynski (“but much bigger”). The Anderson career path seems only obtainable if Sheckler can improve either his curve or circle-change enough to give hitters something slower to think about. Landing on a career like Qualls’s or Rzepczynski’s wouldn’t be a bad outcome at all for an eighth round pick.
9.264 – RHP Jesse Scholtens
On Jesse Scholtens from March 2016…
Jesse Scholtens, a transfer from Arizona, can crank it up to the low-90s with his fastball, a pitch complemented nicely with an average or better breaking ball. There’s clear senior-sign reliever potential with him and perhaps a little bit more if his changeup continues to develop.
Sounds about right for Scholtens, a quality senior-sign that has enough stuff (sinking 88-94 FB, average to above-average cut-slider, usable changeup) to potentially remain in the rotation in pro ball. That puts his ceiling somewhere between future fifth starter and quality middle reliever. Could definitely see the whole relief thing working out for him in the long run. Another nice pitching addition here.
10.294 – 2B Boomer White
Boomer White (302) has been one of the tougher evaluations in this draft class for me going back quite some time. The handful of firsthand reports I’ve gotten on him over the years have been uniformly positive. From raves about his hit tool (plus for some!), above-average raw power, and defense at the hot corner, you would think that White would be an easy player to project as a future above-average regular. Add on a really strong track record of hitting with a dominant senior season (.398/.476/.533 with 33 BB/14 K and 10/14 SB) as the cherry on top, and there really shouldn’t have been anything all that tricky about any of this. Boomer White: future regular. Easy, right?
In the high-stakes world of internet draft guessing, nothing’s easy. I’m not a scout, but my own looks at White in 2016 were not quite what I was hoping to see. I think White will hit, so that’s good. Beyond that, I never saw the kind of power projection that I’d feel comfortable getting up to average at his peak and defense at third that bordered on unplayable in the pros. Again, I’m not a scout but seeing these things up close was discouraging enough I had a hard time forgetting them when it came time to finalize a ranking.
Two comps for White that come to mind that may have some utility for you: Hernan Perez (if you believe he can play a few non-OF spots effectively) and Robbie Grossman (without the switch-hitting). I’m partial to the Grossman comp; I could see White grinding for years in the minors like Grossman before finally getting a shot to play in his late-20s on a bad team willing to give him a shot. No telling if he’ll take the opportunity and run with it like Grossman has so far.
11.324 – OF Tre Carter
I’ve called a lot of eleventh round picks perfect fits for the eleventh round, but Trevyne Carter (262) might really be the one true perfect fit. The eleventh round is when you should be rolling the dice on the boom/bust prospect that may have priced himself out of a single-digit round. That may not exactly be what happened to Carter — his $100,000 bonus technically doesn’t make him an overslot signing — but the same logic applies to him as a boom/bust prospect with some of the most impressive athletic bona fides in this class and all kinds of speed on the bases and in center. Carter’s athletic profile and physical projection make him one of the draft’s most intriguing and overlooked outfield prospects. His pro debut — .298/.411/.383 with 9 BB/10 K in 56 PA — came in a small sample, but was chock full of encouraging signs. The intersection of Carter’s physical gifts and small sample on-field polish suddenly makes him one of the most interesting round eleven prospects to follow.
13.384 – RHP Joe Galindo
With a big fastball up to 98 MPH, above-average slider, and a 6-4, 225 pound frame, Joe Galindo is a college relief prospect straight out of central casting. Toss in stellar strikeout numbers (14.59 K/9) and a boatload of walks (7.45 BB/9) that led to the definition of effectively wild (2.48 ERA) in his junior season. A late-season broken hand at New Mexico State will keep him from debuting in the pros until 2017, but his ready-made late-inning stuff should make him a quick riser through the system if he can curb some of his wild ways.
15.444 – OF Jack Suwinski
Jack Suwinski, like Tre Carter another high school outfielder who got a six-figure signing bonus, can hit. That’s about all I’ve got on him, but it’s enough. Suwinski can hit (and throw and defend enough for a corner). He reminds me a little bit of Josh Stephen, eleventh round pick of the Phillies. The comp works both on the field (both are generally unheralded bat first prep outfield prospects) and with the checkbook (Stephen got $600,000 to sign while Suwinski got $550,000).
16.474 – C Chris Mattison
Chris Mattison hit .384/.447/.708 with 18 BB/39 K and 9/12 SB in his draft year at Southeastern. If he can keep catching in the pros — and the Padres internally believe he can — then he’s a reasonably interesting mid-round follow based on his position and power. I’m a bit scared off by his plate discipline, but it’s the sixteenth round so you can’t have it all.
17.504 – SS Chris Baker
The Padres deserve a ton of credit for their pre-draft evaluation on Chris Baker. They saw a sure-handed shortstop with solid pop and an improving approach at the plate that many others didn’t see. This cool article breaks it down…
“Our scouts had seen him play there plenty of times,” said Conner. “We had seen him in high school and some with the Huskies. That is a big thing in our organization, to have multiple looks at guys so we can see their progression or regression and have a more informed idea of the player.”
The whole article is worth a read, but this part also stood out to me as being particularly important…
“For me, I had one at-bat against UCLA when the pitcher threw me a fastball away, and even though I was thinking away, I still fouled it off,” he said on the moment when things began to turn around for him. “And I thought then that if I had so much time that I didn’t need to rush it. It’s strange, but certain things can just click for you.
Pretty neat that one foul ball can be the start of something much bigger. I’ve heard many similar stories like that — one that comes to mind is about a guy who took a close pitch (a strike, as it turned out) he’d normally have swung at and that became his moment of “Hey, I can do this” — and they never cease to bring me joy. My “nine to five” job allows me to be on the front lines of moments like that everyday, so getting to read about them in the sport I love is a pretty nice way to bridge the gap between my “real life” and whatever this site attempts to do.
Anyway, Chris Baker is a really good get this late in the draft. Any time you can nab a legitimate shortstop capable of hitting .299/.384/.432 with 14/18 SB in 264 AB in his pro debut — better marks across the board save a couple points of batting average than what he did as a junior at Washington — then that’s a win. I commend San Diego for sticking with Baker over the years and think they’ll be paid back with a high-level utility player who has a chance for more if his defense keeps progressing at short.
18.534 – 1B Jaquez Williams
There’s no such thing as a bad signed high school draft pick past round ten. Even when that signed high school draft pick strikes out in 40.8% of his first 98 professional turns at the plate. Jaquez Williams is a big lefthanded power bat with a strong track record catching up to velocity. It’s not the prospect archetype one might typically associate with a $100,000 post-tenth round bonus (i.e., I wouldn’t have targeted him specifically), but, hey, it’s only money, right? And, lest we’ve forgotten already, there’s no such thing as a bad signed high school draft pick past round ten.
19.564 – OF AJ Brown
I know nothing about AJ Brown, star two-sport athlete who will continue to do the two sport thing by playing both baseball with the Padres in the summer and football with Ole Miss in the fall. No word at this time on what job will pay better.
20.594 – RHP Dom DiSabatino
I saw Dominic DiSabatino twice in high school, once in a workout setting and again during game action in Delaware. He was a big human with a monster arm and not a ton of foot speed, so my brain automatically tied him to another oversized prep shortstop I once saw a lot of at Bishop Eustace HS in New Jersey. That would be one Billy Rowell, first round pick and pro flop with Baltimore. Rowell’s struggles don’t have anything to do with DiSabatino, not only because one man’s issues have no place handicapping another’s future but also because DiSabatino will start his pro career not at shortstop but on the mound. Fair enough, though DiSabatino’s sophomore season at Harford was a good deal more impressive with the bat (.411/.519/.738 with 48 BB/36 K and 13/19 SB) than as a pitcher (4.2 IP). I still like what the Padres are doing giving DiSabatino a shot pitching
21.624 – OF Taylor Kohlwey
There was lots of positive buzz on Taylor Kohlwey sent this way throughout the spring. He’s got size (6-3, 200), speed (plus), and, most compelling of all, a legit above-average hit tool. That’s not the type of overall tools package you typically see fall to the twenty-first round. There’s definite fourth outfielder upside with Kohlwey. One contact said that he thought Kohlwey could wind up as a similar player to current Padres center fielder Travis Jankowski. That would be a great potential outcome in the twenty-first round.
22.654 – RHP Evan Miller
Nice work by San Diego realizing that Evan Miller was draft-eligible as a sophomore after his second year at Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne. Miller’s two years as a Mastodon generated some fascinating numbers: 9.75 K/9, 6.09 BB/9, and 5.38 ERA in 152.1 IP. Miller also hit 19 batters and threw 37 wild pitches in those 31 career games (29 starts). If you know what to make of him going solely off those numbers, then you are far more attuned to the draft process than I am. Thankfully, we have a bit more than just the numbers to work with. We also know Miller throws hard (up to the mid-90s) with a nasty breaking ball that morphs between a truer hard slider and a variation on the traditional cut-fastball. He’s also been known to drop in a very occasional changeup. Getting locked in to just one key offspeed pitch — maybe the slider, maybe the cutter, maybe a cut-slider hybrid — should help him across the board (command, control, actual quality of stuff, etc.) in pro ball. I’m bullish on getting a pitcher with Miller’s arm talent this late.
23.684 – 2B Nate Easley
Nate Easley hit .403/.485/.655 with 36 BB/37 K and 29/36 SB in his draft year at junior college power and 2016 NJCAA Champion Yavapai College. He followed that up with a strong showing (.261/.385/.340 with 46 BB/59 K and 13/17 SB) in pro ball. Early returns on his conversion from center field to his father’s old position (second base) have been very encouraging. A patient approach, plus speed, and good defense up the middle could take him pretty far.
His dad made over $25 million in the big leagues and he started as a thirtieth round pick. The twenty-third round pick has a nice head start on his old man. My completely made up numbers — 25 million divided by 30 rounds times the difference of 7 rounds — means that Nate will finish his career with just under $31 million in the bank. Don’t argue with me, it’s math.
25.744 – C Luis Anguizola
Wisconsin-Whitewater, Cornerstone, Southeastern, Wisconsin-La Crosse, Chico State, and Baldwin-Wallace are just some of the universities that San Diego found prospects to their liking in the 2016 MLB Draft. That’s pretty badass. They dug particularly deep in finding Luis Anguizola out of Loyola University in New Orleans. Anguizola put up monster numbers (.428/.491/.738 with 26 BB/29 K) on a 22-33 NAIA squad. Context on those numbers matter. Anguizola’s BA was almost 200 points ahead of any other qualifier on the team. No other batter with more than eight at bats hit over .300. His OBP was 100 points better than anybody else. His SLG was almost 300 (!) points better than anybody else. Anguizola had a ridiculous offensive year any way you look at it. Good news about his pro debut: .279/.389/.356 with 17 BB/24 K and a 121 wRC+ may not be .428/.491/.738, but it’s not nothing. The less good news: Anguizola will be 23-years-old entering his first full pro season. That’s not a killer, but it does mean he has to get his rear in gear if he wants to establish himself as a debonair prospect. What’s a debonair prospect, you may be wondering. Well, Google didn’t recognize my original word choice of bonafide (written improperly as one word when it’s really two, so, hey, I’ve learned something new today), and for some reason wants to correct it to debonair. Debonair prospect should be a thing. Anyway, the even less good news: 23 of Anguizola’s 25 pro starts came at first base. He was announced as a catcher on draft day, but that dream seems less likely by the day. As a catcher, Anguizola would be a really REALLY interesting prospect. As a first baseman, he’s merely interesting. Still take that in a twenty-fifth round pick, of course.
27.804 – RHP Chasen Ford
I’ve seen Chasen Ford pitch at Yale. He’s looked good. Fastball ranging from 87 to 92 MPH, quality if still inconsistent breaking ball, good tempo on the mound, reasonably athletic, repeatable mechanics…all positive things. His results in the Ivy League, however…not so positive. Nobody really cares about twenty-seventh round picks as much as I do (or we do, assuming you’re reading this on your own volition), so this isn’t really true…but don’t late-round picks like Ford feel like mini-referendums on the age old scouts vs stats debate. If you only knew about Ford’s scouting report, you’d be on board. Bonus points for making the transition from standout California high schooler to star student-athlete at Yale, too. If you only knew the results of Ford’s time on the mound at Yale (4.65 K/9 and 3.05 BB/9 as a junior), then he’d be squarely in the middle of the UDFA pile. Since the debate isn’t really a debate at all — we all know this, but I’ll say it anyway: it’s not scouts vs stats, but rather scouts AND scouts working in harmony that make a front office tick — I’ll stay on the sidelines by coming down smack dab in the center. Ford’s scouting reports (including what I’ve personally seen) would have been enough for me to put him on my 40-round draft board at first, but his significantly below-average peripherals over the years would have bumped him off by the time I was ready to finalize the preference list. So I get why the Padres took him even if I wouldn’t have done so myself.
28.834 – SS Ethan Skender
I love this pick. Ethan Skender (417) won’t necessarily knock you over with loud tools, but the hoary cliché that I avoid on 99% of these pick reviews — “he’s a ballplayer” — rings true here. Skender can flat hit. That alone should make him interesting. Combine it with sneaky pop for a guy with his build and enough athleticism to stick up the middle (short for now, maybe second in the long run due to an average arm), and you’ve got yourself a keeper. I’m not quite ready to call a twenty-eighth round pick a future regular in the big leagues, but…fine, I’ll call it now. Skender is really good. Starter upside at second with a damn good shot to have a long, fruitful career in a utility role as a fallback.
30.894 – RHP Dalton Erb
Dalton Erb is a big guy (6-8, 250) with underwhelming velocity (but quality fastball movement) who pitched just all right at Chico State (7.68 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9) as a junior. He’s also “allergic to bees though his dad is a beekeeper.” Like rain on your wedding day, I guess.
31.924 – 1B GK Young
18 BB/38 K, 19 BB/50 K, and 23 BB/63 K. Those were GK Young’s K/BB ratios in his three years at Coastal Carolina. Not great. He’s got impressive present power and a strong arm, but the days of hoping he’d return to his catching roots have long since passed. That leaves us with an all-or-nothing first base prospect. Interestingly enough, Young’s junior year BB/K ratio (23/63) was almost identical to his professional debut BB/K ratio (23/63). A Chanticleer can’t change his spots.
33.984 – RHP Mark Zimmerman
Very cool pick here. Mark Zimmerman should be on any short list of most accomplished 2016 amateur baseball players. The two-way star at Baldwin-Wallace was second in the team in at bats and first in innings pitched. He made the most of both his time in the batter’s box (.368/.472/.540 with 30 BB/17 K and 17/17 SB) and on the mound (10.83 K/9 and 1.79 BB/9). Two draft rules I’ll always follow: bet big on athletes and, all else being equal, let the two-way guy pitch. Zimmerman’s athleticism is obvious to all who have seen him play up close — admittedly a very small number of people — so allowing him to concentrate full time on the mound could reap serious rewards. He’s already got a low-90s heater and quality slider, so a career in middle relief feels well within reach. Thirty-third round pick or not, I’m buying.
34.1014 – 3B Denzell Gowdy
I’m not an expert on Denzell Gowdy, but universal praise of his athleticism and work ethic make him a pretty interesting thirty-fourth round pick to track. His stellar draft season at Darton JC (.356/.473/.620 with 35 BB/37 K) certainly doesn’t hurt, either. Gowdy’s defensive versatility — he played second, third, and in the outfield in his debut — make him a worthwhile sleeper utility name to know.
35.1044 – RHP David Bednar
David Bednar is a really good looking arm that has the stuff to keep starting in pro ball. Not every team may be sold on his size or delivery as a starter, but he’s got the arm speed, depth of arsenal, and demeanor to stay in the rotation. I saw him throw at Penn and came away particularly impressed with his fastball (88-94, 96peak) and slider (above-average, flashed plus) combination. I’d love to see what kind of damage focusing in on those two pitches could produce coming in short bursts out of the bullpen. It’s silly to project any thirty-fifth round pick as a future big league player — the odds are decidedly stacked against such a prediction — but, in honor of my favorite stand-up comic, let’s get silly. David Bednar: future big league reliever.
Unsigned Prospects and Where You Can Find Them in 2017
Jamie Sara (William & Mary), Jared Poche’ (LSU), Hunter Bishop (Arizona State), Grae Kessinger (Mississippi), Collin Sullivan (South Florida), Ariel Burgos Garcia (Keiser), Quinn Hoffman (Harvard), Ryan Rolison (Mississippi), Will Solomon (?), JJ Bleday (Vanderbilt), Chris Burica (Creighton)
Garzillo, Lovullo, and Coniglio at the top of the hitting list is music to my Italian ears. Better yet is the fact that all are locks to remain up the middle at crucial defensive spots. Garzillo has more tools than you’d expect out of a typical Patriot Leaguer, so it’s expected that his speed, arm strength, and pop should get him drafted as a senior-sign even if he doesn’t clean up his approach this spring. Lovullo has the bloodlines, athleticism, and steadying infield presence to be a really solid org guy with the chance for more. His bat has improved each year at Holy Cross, so a big senior season is well within range. Nobody is asking for my seal of approval, but having seen Lovullo play on a few different occasions, I can certainly vouch for him as a player that does all the little things beautifully. I’m less sure about Coniglio’s aggressive ranking here than the others – there’s some concern his lack of power will have him getting the bat knocked out of his hands as a pro – but his speed, range in center, and high-contact approach give him three tools that’ll play well enough to give him a shot.
Robert Currie of Navy is a similar player to Coniglio in many respects, so it’s no big shock they are close on this list. Sandwiched between the two is a fellow Midshipman standout, Sean Trent. Everything that I wrote about him last year applies today…
From Bishop Moore HS to Florida (where he redshirted) to Manatee CC to Navy, the well-traveled Trent has been a prospect at every stop. In HS I noted his natural ability to make hard contact, strong to plus arm strength, good enough speed for an outfield corner, and the potential for a position switch to either C or 3B. All of those strengths remained (“plus arm, strong hit tool, good speed”) through his time at Manatee. He’s just a good all-around player with the kind of prospect pedigree not typically seen outside of the power conferences. At Navy I’ve heard he’s in the proverbial “best shape in his life” and so far the results (.405/.464/.541 in 74 AB) seem to back it up. His positional versatility make him appealing for teams in need of a Swiss army knife prospect that can plug holes (cool mixed metaphor) when needed in the low-minors after being drafted. That versatility could be his ticket to the big leagues if he keeps hitting like he’s capable of doing.
Now that I’ve taken a look at the archives, I see that the link from last year has information about a lot of these players. I guess that mention about not a ton of Patriot League prospects signing after their junior season proved to be true. Garzillo, Trent, Jon Mayer, and Luke Gillingham all had a little bit of the spotlight shone on their abilities last year, and all return to school to do it again in 2016. Makes my life easier now that I realize I don’t have to do anything but plagiarize myself. On Gillingham…
JR LHP Luke Gillingham, the aforementioned Navy pitcher putting up video game numbers (again: 13 strikeouts per start) to start the season, was originally tenth on my ranking of pitchers in the conference. I’ve said before that I don’t want to alter these “pre-season” rankings based on overreacting to one month’s worth of data, but I feel like I should be forgiven for making Gillingham one of my few exceptions. Gillingham has been one of college baseball’s best stories this winter, but I’m more interested in understanding the professional implications his hot start could lead to. It’s not exactly a performance out of nowhere as he’s been a prospect since high school who was only under the radar back then due to an injury that wiped out his entire senior season. At Navy he’s consistently missed bats (7.13 K/9 in 2013, 7.81 K/9 in 2014) while showing above-average control of good but not overwhelming stuff highlighted by a mid- to upper-80s fastball that he commands really well. Ultimately, Gillingham is a better college story than pro prospect, but that doesn’t mean his talent needs to be outright dismissed, either. If willing and permitted to start a pro career this summer there’s definitely a draft-worthy talent here.
This year I’m happy to update Gillingham’s profile to include some specific numbers on the fastball (85-89) and make mention of improvements with both of his offspeed offerings (curve and change, both of which flash average to above-average). I stand by the assertion that he’s a better college story (human interest, really) than pro prospect, but I think we can move his draft grade up a notch or two now that he’s seen a small but meaningful jump in stuff. He’s still a long shot, but the pros outweigh the cons when considering the “risk” of taking him in the mid- to late-rounds. At best he’s a matchup lefty of some value and at worst he’s a fine ambassador for your organization.
Circling back to some players ranked high on these lists that weren’t mentioned last year brings us to Joe Ogren, a 2B/OF who some who follow the league closely told me was a better prospect than Garzillo. Alex Woinski is a fine hitter who controls the strike zone well; if 100% healthy in 2016, he’s primed for a big season. On the mound there’s Jon Escobar, the pitcher who is in many ways the polar opposite of Gillingham. Whereas Gillingham is lefthanded, crafty, and accomplished, Escobar is a righthander with power (90-94, up to 96) and limited innings – wild ones, at that – under his belt. I plan on using their relative rankings next time I get accused of “scouting the box score” too heavily. Ahead of Gillingham, Escobar, and every other pitching prospect in the conference (for now) is David Bednar from Lafayette. Bednar is what you get when you get a taste of the performance (10.00 K/9 in 63.1 IP last year) and stuff (88-92 FB, up to 96; nice SL; command to throw four pitches in any count) of Gillingham and Escobar, respectively. Prospects that don’t make you choose between what they’ve done and what they might do are my favorite, so Bednar is a definitely name to know going forward.
- Lehigh SR 2B/SS Mike Garzillo
- Holy Cross SR SS Nick Lovullo
- Lafayette SR OF Michael Coniglio
- Navy rSR OF/3B Sean Trent
- Navy SR OF Robert Currie
- Bucknell SR 2B/OF Joe Ogren
- Lafayette JR 1B/OF Alex Woinski
- Holy Cross JR 1B/3B Anthony Critelli
- Lehigh JR OF/C Jacen Nalesnik
- Army SR C Ben Smith
- Lehigh JR 1B/RHP Connor Donovan
- Army JR 2B Kris Lindner
- Bucknell SR C Jon Mayer
- Navy JR C Adrian Chinnery
- Lehigh JR 3B/SS Pat Donnelly
- Navy JR OF Leland Saile
- Navy JR SS/2B Travis Blue
- Lafayette JR RHP David Bednar
- Holy Cross JR RHP Jon Escobar
- Lehigh SR RHP Brandon Kulp
- Navy SR LHP Luke Gillingham
- Lehigh SR RHP Kevin Boswick
- Holy Cross JR RHP Ben White
- Lehigh SR RHP Kevin Long
- Navy JR RHP George Coughlin
- Bucknell SR RHP Andrew Andreychik
- Navy JR RHP Jett Meenach
- Bucknell JR LHP/OF Danny Rafferty
- Holy Cross SR RHP Sean Gustin
- Army SR LHP Brock Davidson
- Lafayette SR LHP Ryan Callanan
- Navy SR RHP Sam Sorenson
- Army SR RHP Justin French
SR RHP Justin French (2016)
SR LHP Brock Davidson (2016)
SR LHP Patrick Gardner (2016)
SR RHP Garrison Franklin (2016)
SR OF Jacob Page (2016)
SR C Ben Smith (2016)
JR 2B Kris Lindner (2016)
SO LHP Jeremy Mortensen (2017)
SO RHP Matt Ball (2017)
SO RHP Stu Schley (2017)
FR LHP Tyler Giovinco (2018)
FR OF Matthew Hudgins (2018)
FR 2B Josh White (2018)
FR 2B Trey Martin (2018)
High Priority Follows: Justin French, Patrick Gardner, Ben Smith, Kris Lindner
SR RHP Andrew Andreychik (2016)
JR LHP Mike Castellani (2016)
SR RHP Dan Keller (2016)
JR LHP/OF Danny Rafferty (2016)
SR C Jon Mayer (2016)
SR OF/1B Spencer Stokes (2016)
JR OF/2B Brett Smith (2016)
SR 2B/OF Joe Ogren (2016)
JR 3B Sam Clark (2016)
JR 3B/SS Mark Powell (2016)
SO RHP Mike Stephens (2017)
SO 1B Mike Korchak (2017)
FR RHP Jeff Gottesman (2018)
FR LHP Jack Grabek (2018)
FR RHP Christian Tailor (2018)
FR RHP PJ Strahm (2018)
FR 1B/OF Miles Moore (2018)
FR C/3B Evan Klugerman (2018)
High Priority Follows: Andrew Andreychik, Danny Rafferty, Jon Mayer, Spencer Stokes, Joe Ogren, Sam Clark
JR RHP Jon Escobar (2016)
SR RHP Sean Gustin (2016)
JR RHP Phil Reese (2016)
JR RHP Brendan King (2016)
JR RHP Ben White (2016)
JR RHP George Capen (2016)
JR RHP Justin Finan (2016)
JR RHP Zach Fox (2016)
JR RHP Joe Cravero (2016)
SR SS Nick Lovullo (2016)
SR OF Bobby Indeglia (2016)
SR C Connor Perry (2016)
JR C Alex Voitik (2016)
JR 1B/3B Anthony Critelli (2016)
JR OF Bill Schlich (2016)
SO 2B Cam O’Neill (2017)
FR RHP Pat McGowan (2018)
High Priority Follows: Jon Escobar, Sean Gustin, Ben White, Zach Fox, Nick Lovullo, Anthony Critelli
JR RHP David Bednar (2016)
SR LHP Ryan Callanan (2016)
SR RHP Connor McMahon (2016)
SR RHP Mitch Leeds (2016)
JR RHP Trevor Houck (2016)
SR LHP Ari Kaufman (2016)
SR 1B Campbell Lipe (2016)
SR OF Michael Coniglio (2016)
SR SS Jackson Kramer (2016)
JR 1B/OF Alex Woinski (2016)
SR 3B Tyler Hudson (2016)
SO LHP John Cain (2017)
SO OF Drew Aherne (2017)
SO SS Steven Cohen (2017)
FR RHP David Guisti (2018)
FR OF Dan Leckie (2018)
High Priority Follows: David Bednar, Ryan Callanan, Campbell Lipe, Michael Coniglio, Alex Woinski
SR RHP Brandon Kulp (2016)
SR RHP Kevin Long (2016)
SR RHP Kevin Boswick (2016)
JR LHP Matt Kozemchak (2016)
JR RHP David Young (2016)
JR 1B/RHP Connor Donovan (2016)
SR 2B/SS Mike Garzillo (2016)
JR 3B/SS Pat Donnelly (2016)
JR OF/C Jacen Nalesnik (2016)
JR C John Scarr (2016)
SO LHP Peter Moore (2017)
SO SS James Bleming (2017)
FR RHP Cole McManimon (2018)
FR LHP Ethan Frohman (2018)
FR C Jeff Shanfeldt (2018)
FR OF Ryan Malloy (2018)
High Priority Follows: Brandon Kulp, Kevin Long, Kevin Boswick, Connor Donovan, Mike Garzillo, Pat Donnelly, Jacen Nalesnik, John Scarr
SR LHP Luke Gillingham (2016)
SR RHP Sam Sorenson (2016)
SR RHP Andrew Bartek (2016)
JR RHP George Coughlin (2016)
JR RHP Kyle Condry (2016)
JR RHP Jett Meenach (2016)
SR OF Robert Currie (2016)
rSR OF/3B Sean Trent (2016)
JR SS/2B Travis Blue (2016)
JR OF Leland Saile (2016)
JR C Adrian Chinnery (2016)
SR OF Connor Deneen (2016)
SO 1B Ben McGrath (2017)
SO OF Stephen Born (2017)
SO 1B Ben Lowe (2017)
FR RHP Noah Song (2018)
FR 2B Matt Wilcox (2018)
High Priority Follows: Luke Gillingham, Sam Sorenson, George Coughlin, Kyle Condry, Jett Meenach, Robert Currie, Sean Trent, Travis Blue, Leland Saile, Adrian Chinnery