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Big 12 2015 MLB Draft All-Prospect Team
Oklahoma JR C Chris Shaw
Texas Tech JR 1B Eric Gutierrez
Kansas JR 2B Colby Wright
Texas JR SS CJ Hinojosa
Oklahoma JR 3B Kolbey Carpenter
Texas JR OF Ben Johnson
Texas Tech JR OF Tyler Neslony
Kansas State SR OF Max Brown
Texas Christian JR LHP Alex Young
Texas Christian JR RHP Riley Ferrell
Texas Christian rSO RHP Mitchell Traver
Oklahoma rJR LHP Adam Choplick
Texas SR RHP Parker French
I normally start with the hitters here because I’m a creature of habit bound by my small-minded attempt at maintaining some semblance of consistent order in an otherwise chaotic world. Today we’re breaking that habit not because of personal growth, but simply because the pitching in the Big 12, most notably at TCU, is worth talking about. I’m way late to the party, I know, but the collection of arms they have in Fort Worth is something to be celebrated.
Oklahoma rJR LHP Adam Choplick is a 6-8, 260 pound lefthander who can reach the mid-90s and for whatever reason very little has been written about him nationally. My contribution to help remedy that: he’s really good. I’d love to know more about Texas SR RHP Parker French’s batted ball data. He has some serious worm-killing stuff (88-94 FB with sink, 97 peak; good 78-84 CU with sink; good mid-80s cut-SL) and has succeeded over the years without striking out a ton of hitters. That last bit is a tad worrisome because pro hitters are not college hitters, but if he can be a 60% groundball guy in the pros then who knows.
Oklahoma State is loaded in its own right with draft-eligible pitchers. rJR RHP/OF Conor Costello has the depth of stuff to start and the athleticism to repeat his delivery through long outings. He’s also a decent enough hitter that letting him start in the National League could lead to some fun at bats. JR RHP Koda Glover uses a 92-95 MPH fastball and intriguing offspeed stuff (no, that’s not just that code that I need more info on him…except I do, which must be an incredible coincidence) to miss bats at a high rate. SO RHP Trey Cobb comes from a star-studded Oklahoma high school class with a sinker/slider mix that should keep him employed for a long time. SR RHP Jon Perrin could be a good bang for your buck as a potential fifth starter/middle relief type available on the cheap come drat day.
I’ve written all that (and my brief note on Choplick, can’t forget that beauty) while totally forgetting I’ve covered Kansas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State already. So, read those if you want more on any of those schools. I think we’ve waited long enough to finally get to the main event that is Texas Christian University. They might not be able to match Vanderbilt in terms of pure ceiling (Buehler and Fulmer are tough to beat), but their balance of star power, hard throwers, polished veterans, and Preston Morrison (he gets his own category) is special.
I think you almost need to find a rare three-headed coin to determine the best pitcher from TCU (and thus the best in the conference) between JR LHP Alex Young, JR RHP Riley Ferrell, and rSO RHP Mitchell Traver. All three guys fit nice neat little archetypes, so they make for a fun and relatively easy group to discuss. Young is the sure-fire starter going forward with a legit classic four-pitch mix (FB, CU, CB, SL), average overall command (above-average FB command, which is nice) and solid athleticism/size. He’s also put up numbers since day one on campus (8.41 K/9 in 2013, 8.37 K/9 in 2014), so there’s not too much need to project some kind of crazy unrealistic future where he turns into something that he’s not. The delta between his ceiling and floor is a tiny one as at his best he’s probably a mid-rotation workhorse and at his worst he figures to be a fifth starter/bullpen weapon. He’d fit in as a really swell second or third pick for a team that would prefer to reach for the stars with their first rounder. He has to be on the short list as one of the “safest” draft prospects or “quickest movers” to the big leagues. Ferrell is the future back end of the bullpen stalwart with closer upside. Like Young (and most big-time college relief prospects) Ferrell has a small gap between his dream scenario (elite closer) and his most likely scenario (good reliever who gets to the big leagues in a hurry). Also like Young, Ferrell’s track record at TCU is impeccable; with a trail of missed bats lying in his wake (11.02 K/9 in 2013, 13.90 K/9 in 2014, 14.50 K/9 so far this year), what you see is what you get. At his best he’s in the upper-90s with the heat and a plus mid-80s slider as the putaway pitch; at his less than best (like, say, on the second half of a back-to-back), his fastball sits low-90s with a slider that flashes but doesn’t have quite the same shape. I think he likely will fall in somewhere between last year’s top two relievers, Nick Burdi (pick 46) and Michael Cederoth (pick 79), were drafted last year. That seems fair for now. Traver is the wild card. His health has held up so far this year and his stuff has been as advertised. If you can’t get excited for a 6-7, 250 pound capable of hitting the mid-90s (90-94, 96 peak) with a plus mid-80s slider and a usable changeup who is finally healthy after missing the better part of two seasons with arm injuries (Tommy John back in 2013 did a number on him), then you’re reading the wrong site. I’ve gotten an interesting range of comps for Traver including a solid starter (Gil Meche), a quality reliever (Nick Masset), and a personal favorite of mine that will go down as a starting member of the what could have been team (Dustin McGowan). I like to occasionally look a comparison cousins, my lame turn of phrase for two prospects connected by being once compared to the same player. The only other time I’ve used a Dustin McGowan comp was when it was mentioned to me last year as a possible outcome for Tyler Kolek. That’s…interesting.
Those are the top names at TCU, but far from the only ones. SO LHP Tyler Alexander is a potential back of the rotation starter who has good stuff with excellent command. rSO RHP Brian Trieglaff can get it up to 94, SR LHP Travis Evans throws three pitches for strikes (including a good breaking ball), and rSR RHP Trey Teakell is an outstanding senior sign with the size (6-5, 175), repertoire (87-92 FB, low-80s CU, upper-70s CB, hard splitter), and, big shocker, sterling track record to warrant top ten round consideration. Finally we get to SR RHP Preston Morrison, college baseball’s weirdest pitcher. Morrison gets results with a mid-80s fastball with serious sink and a variety of offspeed offerings (72-74 CB, 69-74 SL, 76-81 CU) that comes in from a funky sidearm but not quite sidearm angle. I rule nothing out when it comes to Morrison’s pro future, though I think a middle relief ceiling as a guy who gives hitters a totally different look from most big league relievers feels like a fair best case scenario right now.
I’m still holding out hope that we see Oklahoma JR C Chris Shaw get going on the big stage, especially after the tremendous power displays he put on after relatively slow starts the past two seasons in junior college. Truthfully, the question as to whether or not he’ll hit for power isn’t a debate; Shaw’s success or failure going forward will be determined by the adjustments in approach he is able to make. He’s always been a touch too aggressive for his own good, but his power could mask some of the deficiencies he’s shown at lower-levels. More experienced arms will keep exploiting the holes in his approach unless he makes some changes. The power alone still makes him a high follow, but much of the optimism I felt in January has eroded under the rocky shores of reality.
I won’t move Shaw off the top spot out of a combination of wanting to keep these lists consistent with my pre-season thoughts and the prospect of him still having high-level power at the next level, but one of the two Cowboys right behind him would give him a run for his money in a revised ranking. I wish SR C/OF Gage Green was more of a sure thing to stay behind the plate because his offensive game has shown a lot of growth over the years. I also really like SR C Bryan Case, the much better glove of the two, though he’s a tough player to fairly judge due to his lack of playing time. When given a chance to play he’s hit, so I think there’s something there. After a bit more thought, I’d say that Oklahoma JR C Anthony Hermelyn would also be right up there near the top of this list in a re-ranking. His hit tool is interesting, he has a strong defensive profile with no doubts about his arm strength (been clocked as high as 94 MPH off the mound), and his plate discipline is trending in the right direction. All in all, not a bad group of catchers
Texas Tech JR 1B/LHP Eric Gutierrez is one of my favorite power hitters in a class desperately in need of some good ones. Some teams might be turned off than his less than ideal frame (5-10, 205), but so long as he keeps mashing he has a better than average shot to hear his name called in a signable range this June. Kansas State rSR 1B/LHP Shane Conlon has always intrigued me due to his reasonable power upside, average speed, and plus glove. It’s a a fun profile and one I hope we get a chance to keep following in pro ball.
Kansas JR 2B/SS Colby Wright has been a baseball magnet this season (11 HBP in 65 official AB!). I liked his pop, patience, and glove combination coming into the year, and nothing has moved me off that as of yet. I think he’s the best of a lackluster group of Big 12 second basemen. At shortstop it’s still Texas JR SS/3B CJ Hinojosa’s top spot to lose. Much has been written on these very pages already about Hinojosa, so I’ll spare you any needless rehashing and just leave you with my Marco Scuatro comp and call it a day. Almost. We’re now far enough along with the season (20 games in already, time flies), so it’s silly for me to keep pretending that these are strictly previews and not, at least in part, ongoing assessments. The rankings are more or less unchanged from where I stood pre-season, but I do try to pepper the commentary with some updates where applicable. Hinojosa’s slow start (.197/.337/.310) is notable, though it’s a) only 71 AB, and b) not as bad when you look at some underlying numbers (most notably 14 BB/11 K). I’m a little bit concerned and would consider dropping him in future overall prospect rankings, but he still is a good prospect with top five round upside.
Texas Tech rSO SS/2B Cory Raley could be a fascinating utility player prospect with the chance for more. He has the ability to be really good at second and playable at short with enough speed, athleticism, and size to buy him time as he figures out how to hit. So far so good as hitter for Raley this winter, so consider me sufficiently intrigued at what now appears to be a lower than deserved ranking. I also have to mention TCU rJR SS Keaton Jones, a player so good with the glove that he’ll get drafted almost no matter what he does at the plate this spring. The fact that he’s more than holding his own as a hitter for the first time collegiately is icing on the mid-round cake. I’m glad I went with Oklahoma JR 3B Kolbey Carpenter as the conference’s top third baseman. He impressed all those I talked to last spring with his power upside and steady glove, so it’s nice to see him off to a hot start this season. Like second base, however, it’s worth noting that he’s the best of a very thin group of potential future pros. That in no way detracts from his underrated play, of course. I have a good intuitive feeling about Carpenter as a draft prospect.
The outfield is where things get really interesting in the Big 12. I know I say this about so many prospects that it probably renders the distinction meaningless, but Texas JR OF Ben Johnson has to be one of this year’s draft’s most fascinating prospects. Johnson’s name has come up over and over again so far this season as a tooled-up prospect finally turning into a deeply skilled player. Or so I thought. All of the chatter over Johnson excited me because I had assumed he was finally doing the things that he’ll need to do to be a better pro. Full disclosure: I haven’t gotten any updates about him this season (since the fall) from anybody I know who has seen him and (I’M NOT A SCOUT) I’ve only personally seen him twice this year on the tube. So I’m not working with all the needed info to make any overarching statements that should be taken as fact. I’m just theorizing that maybe college analysts (and perhaps certain pro scouting staffs that weigh projection significantly ahead of production [they aren’t wrong for this, by the way]) are getting a little ahead of themselves in proclaiming this to be the start of Johnson’s ascension to day one of the 2015 MLB Draft. Johnson has been absolutely phenomenal this season by most every measure: .432/.463/.659 is damn good work in 88 at bats. Maybe he’s made adjustments as a hitter that the public will hear about as some of the best prospect writers begin doing some digging. Maybe (hopefully) I’ll hear something from one of my contacts sooner rather than later that brings some good news on his outburst. Until then, however, I think Ben Johnson is just doing Ben Johnson things. I won’t say that I anticipated this kind of start, but his numbers aren’t out of line with what you’d expect from a player with his kind of tools at the college level. It’s not crazy to say that he, like about a dozen or so players in this and every class, is too physically gifted for the college game. Johnson is a pro-level glove in center with an average or better arm, average or better raw power, and, most interestingly, the kind of jaw-dropping athleticism and game-changing speed that puts the whole package over the top.
Again, Johnson is putting up a ridiculous .432/.463/.659 line so far this year. That’s really great. With only 2 walks to 12 strikeouts, however, I’m not sure how all his considerable offensive gifts will continue to play as he climbs the ladder. For all the positives he brings to the table he still looks like a very high potential pick since athletes like him often provide value well beyond what they do at the plate (running, defending, you get it). That relatively high floor makes Johnson extra appealing; using a supplemental first, second, or third round pick on him is not likely to completely blow up in your face simply because he’s almost too damn athletic to do nothing. On the off chance he puts it together, watch out. If that paragraph reads like I’m hedging my bets on him, then you’re on the right track.
Hot start or not, I still lump Johnson in with fellow toolsy outfield peers like Florida JR OF Harrison Bader and Clemson JR OF Steven Duggar for the moment. Just because those guys rank 5-6-7 (further down if you consider any of Ian Happ, Richie Martin, or BC’s Chris Shaw outfielders) on my “current” (as current as anything draft-related can be that’s three weeks old) college outfield list does not mean I view them as ordinary, mid-round prospects. I didn’t write nearly enough about last year’s draft than I would have liked, but I’ll say this without the benefit of hindsight (not that a few weeks of pro ball should change anybody’s mind about anybody): I’d take this year’s toolsy outfielders above any college outfielder from last year with the exception of Michael Conforto, Bradley Zimmer, Mike Papi, and maybe (if he’s really an OF, which I’m still unsure of) Connor Joe. That’s above last year’s 37th overall pick, Derek Fisher, for what it’s worth.
In other non-Ben Johnson Big 12 outfield news, Texas Tech JR OF Tyler Neslony’s positive approach and power upside make him a strong bat worth knowing. His plate discipline has backed up a bit since last year here in the early going, so almost all caveats with such players apply. Same with Kansas State SR OF Max Brown, a rare senior sign that doubles as one of the draft’s finer physical specimens. The 6-5, 200 pound plus runner showed well in limited at bats last year, but, stop me if you’ve heard this before, his approach at the plate needs significant work. A crazy argument could be made that he might be the most valuable draft property of the three already mentioned Big 12 outfielders based solely on his talent (below Johnson to be sure, but he’s no slouch), projected round (no idea, but I’d be surprised if it was all that high), and potential bonus demands (no leverage).
The only draft-eligible outfielder listed below having an above-average season by my measures – I mean, Johnson clearly is and I’m being way too hard on him so pay no mind to the only part – is Oklahoma JR OF Craig Aikin, an above-average runner and glove with an interesting leadoff approach to hitting. Since we scratched the “only” from the previous sentence allow me to also recognize TCU SR OF Cody Jones as having a fine start to his 2015 season. He’s an even more interesting senior sign with his blazing speed, plus CF range, strong arm, and very selective approach. I don’t see enough power out of him to profile as more than a backup, but you could do worse when looking for a future speed and defense fourth or fifth outfielder.
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Hitting
- Texas JR SS/3B CJ Hinojosa
- Texas JR OF Ben Johnson
- Texas Tech JR OF Tyler Neslony
- Kansas State SR OF Max Brown
- Oklahoma JR C Chris Shaw
- Oklahoma JR OF Hunter Haley
- Kansas SR OF/RHP Dakota Smith
- Oklahoma State JR SS/2B Donnie Walton
- Texas Tech JR 1B/LHP Eric Gutierrez
- Kansas rJR OF Steve Goldstein
- Kansas SR OF Connor McKay
- Oklahoma State SR C/OF Gage Green
- Oklahoma State SR C Bryan Case
- Kansas JR 2B/SS Colby Wright
- Texas Tech SR SS Tim Proudfoot
- Texas Christian SR OF Cody Jones
- Oklahoma JR 3B Kolbey Carpenter
- Oklahoma JR OF Craig Aikin
- Texas Christian JR OF Nolan Brown
- Texas SR OF Collin Shaw
- Texas Christian SR 3B/2B Derek Odell
- Kansas State rSR 1B/LHP Shane Conlon
- Oklahoma JR C/RHP Anthony Hermelyn
- Kansas State SR 2B/OF Carter Yagi
- Oklahoma State SR 2B/OF Tim Arakawa
- Texas SR 2B Brooks Marlow
- Kansas SR 2B/SS Justin Protacio
- Texas Tech rSO SS/2B Cory Raley
- Texas Christian JR 2B Garrett Crain
- Kansas rJR OF Joe Moroney
- Texas Tech JR C Kholton Sanchez
- Texas Tech JR C Tyler Floyd
- Baylor JR 1B Mitch Price
- Texas Tech SR 2B Bryant Burleson
2015 MLB Draft Talent – Pitching
- Texas Christian JR LHP Alex Young
- Texas Christian JR RHP Riley Ferrell
- Texas Christian rSO RHP Mitchell Traver
- Oklahoma rJR LHP Adam Choplick
- Texas SR RHP Parker French
- Texas Tech JR RHP Matt Withrow
- Oklahoma State rJR RHP/OF Conor Costello
- Baylor SR RHP Austin Stone
- Oklahoma State JR RHP Koda Glover
- Oklahoma State SO RHP Trey Cobb
- Texas Christian SO LHP Tyler Alexander
- Texas Christian rSO RHP Brian Triegflaff
- Texas Christian SR LHP Travis Evans
- Texas Christian rSR RHP Trey Teakell
- Texas rSR RHP Ty Marlow
- Oklahoma JR LHP/1B Jacob Evans
- Kansas JR RHP Hayden Edwards
- Oklahoma JR RHP Blake Rogers
- Oklahoma State SR RHP Jon Perrin
- Baylor rSR LHP Brad Kuntz
- Texas Tech JR RHP/OF Quinn Carpenter
- Kansas State rJR RHP Nate Williams
- Oklahoma rSR RHP Robert Tasin
- Baylor rJR RHP Ryan Smith
- Texas JR RHP Chad Hollingsworth
- Texas Tech SR RHP Dominic Moreno
- Texas JR LHP Travis Duke
- Oklahoma JR RHP RHP Corey Copping
- Texas Christian SR RHP Preston Morrison
- Kansas State rSO RHP Nate Griep
- Oklahoma State rSR LHP Tyler Nurdin
- Kansas State JR RHP Levi MaVorhis
- Kansas State rSO RHP Colton Kalmus
- Oklahoma State JR LHP Alex Hackerott
- Texas JR LHP Ty Culbreth
- Texas Tech SR LHP Cameron Smith
- Texas Tech SR RHP Corey Taylor
- West Virginia JR RHP Jeff Hardy
- Texas Tech JR RHP Dalton Brown
- Baylor SR RHP Sean Spicer
- Kansas State rSO RHP Blake McFadden
- Oklahoma JR LHP Jeffrey Curran
- West Virginia rJR LHP Ross Vance
2015 MLB Draft Prospects – Oklahoma
JR RHP Blake Rogers (2015)
rJR LHP Adam Choplick (2015)
JR RHP RHP Corey Copping (2015)
JR RHP Ralph Garza (2015)
rSR RHP Robert Tasin (2015)
JR LHP Jeffrey Curran (2015)
JR LHP/1B Jacob Evans (2015)
JR C/RHP Anthony Hermelyn (2015)
JR OF Hunter Haley (2015)
rSR OF Taylor Alspaugh (2015)
SR 2B/SS Josh Ake (2015)
JR OF Craig Aikin (2015)
JR 3B Kolbey Carpenter (2015)
SO RHP Alec Hansen (2016)
SO 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse (2016)
SO OF Cody Thomas (2016)
SO RHP Jake Elliott (2016)
SO 1B Austin O’Brien (2016)
I always tell myself I’ll stay out of the overrated/underrated game because I really don’t know enough about the consensus view on college baseball to make such proclamations, but this year’s Oklahoma pitching staff appears underrated to me based on the ratio of talent on hand and the relative quiet surrounding their arms found in print over the past few months. rJR LHP Adam Choplick remains as raw as a fourth-year college player can get, but the size (6-8, 260), fastball (low-90s, 94 peak), underrated (there I go using that word again) athleticism, and flashes of dominance (maybe not in terms of run prevention, but back to back seasons with more than a strikeout per inning and walk rates within reason are nothing to sneeze at) make him one of college baseball’s sleeping giants in terms of draft prospects. Choplick is the main reason why I find the Sooner staff underrated nationally, but not the only reason. I like both JR RHPs Blake Rogers and Corey Cropping as potential middle relievers at the highest level. I like JR LHP Jacob Evans (upper-80s heat that plays up because of pinpoint command, low-70s CB flashes plus, solid CU) a little bit more than. I also like JR LHP Jeffrey Curran even though I know little to nothing about him right now, but as a lefthander with size and seemingly some projection left (6-3, 165) his 2014 numbers (8.54 K/9 and 0.68 BB/9 in 26.1 IP) get him on the follow list. If your pitching staff can go five deep with reasonable pro prospects, that’s a quality group.
I’m less enthused about Oklahoma’s lineup, though there are still some draft-worthy talents sprinkled in. As a center fielder with average or better speed, pop, arm strength, range, and athleticism, JR OF Hunter Haley might have the highest ceiling of the class. He’s struggled with finding the right approach at the plate (27 BB/78 K in his career), but there’s no denying his physical gifts. JR C Anthony Hermelyn could get a look as a reasonably athletic catching prospect with a decent hit tool. JR OF Craig Aikin should wind up similarly regarded, only as a backup outfielder type with decent speed and a patient approach. JR 3B Kolbey Carpenter might the best blend of hit tool/power/patience on the team (at least in terms of 2015 prospects), so he’ll be closely watched this spring to see if last year’s small sample size bump in production was for real.
That just about covers the 2015 draft as far as I can tell. Now we can get to the crown jewels of this Oklahoma roster. As much as I like the 2015 class, the 2016 group has two players with star upside that will make Norman a destination for scouts from all over the country. SO RHP Alec Hansen has a huge arm (90-96 FB, 98 peak) with an above-average hard slider (mid-80s) that flashes plus and some feel for a slower breaking ball in the mid- to upper-70s. Like any large human who pitches, he’ll have to continue to work to refine his delivery and command (the two so often go hand-in-hand). Hansen also showed some serious wildness last year (10.32 BB/9) in his very short sample of a debut (11.1 IP), so that will have to be monitored each time he takes the mound this spring. There’s a long way to go between what he is and what he will be, so teams will have to keep a close eye on him as they straddle that thin line between high risk and major reward. SO 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse is more of a sure thing with a ceiling that arguably matches Hansen’s. Even though I list him as a primary third baseman, Neuse has a legit shot at sticking at shortstop professionally. I remember following him in high school and thinking that he’d be at least average at short and potentially plus at third. Those thoughts haven’t changed after one year of college. I also liked him better on the mound. That opinion is far more debatable and at this point I’d strongly lean towards sending him out as a position player. He was very impressive on the mound as a freshman (8.25 K/9 and 3.00 BB/9 in 12 IP), but truly outstanding as a hitter (.304/.369/.521 with 27 BB/31 K in 240 AB). Neuse has a huge leg up on the majority of his 2016 competition when it comes to locking down a spot in next year’s first round.