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2016 MLB Draft Reviews – Cincinnati Reds
Top 500 Prospects Drafted by Cincinnati in 2016
7 – Nick Senzel
55 – Chris Okey
61 – Taylor Trammel
*115 – TJ Friedl
171 – Nick Hanson
212 – Tyler Mondile
285 – Scott Moss
312 – Ryan Hendrix
Complete List of 2016 Cincinnati Draftees
1.2 – 3B Nick Senzel
Combing my notes on Nick Senzel (7) reveals one glaring negative about his game. Ready for it? “Little worried about his arm.” Even with that gigantic red flag, Cincinnati took Senzel with the second overall pick. What in the world were they thinking? On Senzel (with updated stats) from April 2016…
Nick Senzel is really good. I’ve compared him to Anthony Rendon in the past – the exact phrasing from my notes is “Rendon lite?” – and I think he’ll have a good long career as an above-average big league player. He also reminds me a little bit of this guy…
.352/.456/.595 – 40 BB/21 K – 25/29 SB – 210 AB
.393/.487/.592 – 45 BB/38 K – 13/14 SB – 262 AB
Top is Senzel, bottom is Kyle Seager. I’ve used the Seager comp a few (too many) times over the years, most recently on Max Schrock last season. Speaking of Schrock, how did he fall as far as he did last year? That one still blows my mind. Anyway, in an attempt to move away from the tired Seager comp, another name popped up…
.352/.456/.595 – 40 BB/21 K – 25/29 SB – 210 AB
.351/.479/.530 – 46 BB/26 K – 11/14 SB – 185 AB
Top is still Senzel. Mystery bottom guy was written up like so by Baseball America after his pro debut…
“He has a short, compact swing and hits the ball to all fields, and he handles breaking pitches well because of strong balance. Though he’s a physical 6-foot-1 and has good strength, [REDACTED] has a line-drive swing that doesn’t produce natural loft, leading some to project him to have below-average power. He earns high marks for his defense, with good feet and hands to go with an above-average arm at third base. He’s also versatile enough to have played second base, shortstop and left field for Team USA. He’s a good athlete and a solid-average runner.”
I would have linked his pre-draft report from BA, but they have the absolute worst log-in page on the entire internet. Anyway, the passage above was typed up from the 2009 Prospect Handbook. We’re talking about a guy who once played infield in the SEC. He had a similar draft year statistically. And he’s really broken out in his late-20s. Any guesses? When I’ve done mystery comps like this in the past I wouldn’t reveal the player. Then I’d search my site about a different player years later, come across the mystery comp post, and have no idea myself who I was talking about. So, yeah, it’s Logan Forsythe. My future self thanks my present self. I like Senzel to hit the big leagues running a bit more easily than Forsythe (i.e., I don’t think Senzel will enter his age-28 season with an OPS+ of 85), so maybe that would bump Senzel up over Forsythe as a guy with a higher floor. A couple of peak years like Forsythe’s seems like a reasonable ceiling projection. That’s a damn fine player. Supports the original claim: Nick Senzel is really good.
In addition to the Rendon, Seager, and Forsythe comparisons, I’ve also likened Senzel to a young Michael Cuddyer. Of all the comps I’ve thrown out this past draft season, Senzel to Cuddyer generated the most feedback from those in the know, especially as the summer pro season dragged on. Here’s part of Baseball America’s scouting report on Cuddyer after his first full pro season…
Strengths: Cuddyer had few problems at the plate in his pro debut, leading Fort Wayne in home runs, RBIs, doubles, triples, runs and walks. He showed excellent power potential and should dramatically increase his home run total as he grows into his 6-foot-3, 195-pound frame. Twins officials save their highest praise for Cuddyer’s approach to the game. He did not let his defensive struggles affect his offense or his leadership role, even early in the season. Where the pressures of pro ball sometimes eat up young prospects, the Twins feel that Cuddyer will thrive on them. Weaknesses: Cuddyer’s defensive struggles at shortstop resulted in 61 errors. The errors weren’t primarily in one area where a correction or extended repetitions could address the problem. The Twins felt that Cuddyer’s above-average arm strength and hands were fine and that his limited range was forcing him to try to make plays he couldn’t. The Twins also realized that they had two premium shortstop prospects in Luis Rivas and Cristian Guzman. Cuddyer was switched to third base during instructional league and made an “instantaneous” conversion to the corner.
Talk in pro scouting circles about Senzel potentially putting on more good muscle and bulking up to become an occasional third baseman, corner outfielder, and first baseman at maturation (mid- to late-20s) makes the Cuddyer comparison feel a little more apt than before. Whether that actually happens or not, it doesn’t change the fact that just about everybody agrees that Senzel will hit on a similar level to all those guys he’s been compared to. I’d also add Matt Carpenter’s name in the mix; he was a name that came up with Lucas Erceg was discussed and since I consider Erceg to be a “Senzel-lite” type of prospect, it stands to reason that Carpenter and Senzel would share some similarities.
Senzel is an above-average athlete with explosive bat speed, a veteran’s approach at the plate, and above-average to plus raw power. Despite passing along some of the things I’ve heard, I personally have no worries about him excelling at the hot corner defensively with more than enough in the way of instincts, arm strength, and athleticism to make it work. Heck, I’m the one pushing the idea that he could someday return to second base after all. A plus offensive player with a long track record of hitting capable of playing at least average defense at a key position is a potential big league star. That’s Nick Senzel. Nick Senzel is really good.
(Since I’ve been asked before, a quick fantasy take to close things out: Nick Senzel is the clear best prospect for fantasy purposes in this draft when you account for finding the sweet spot between certainty, proximity to the big leagues, and upside.)
1.35 – OF Taylor Trammel
I have no evidence to back this hunch up, but it feels like there is a prep outfielder in every class that has physical tools on par with the early first round talents but falls well past that point in the draft. If that’s true, then I nominate Taylor Trammel (61) for that position in 2016. If it’s not true, then, well, I still think Taylor Trammel fits the very toolsy potential-laden outfielder player archetype quite nicely. From May 2016…
Trammel can run and defend with the best in his class, but his arm is inconsistent. One thing I really like about him is how real his progression has felt this past calendar year. There’s been no surge in buzz about him throughout the spring; instead, it’s been a slow and steady build, as many scouts have noted that the average grades on his sheet have morphed into above-average to plus marks over the course of his final season.
What’s with the Reds picking really good looking young players with questionable arms? That’s two players in a row where the arm is really the only fair thing to question about their respective tool sets. Guess if you’re going to skimp on one tool doing so with the least important one makes sense. Good players with bad arms is the new Moneyball. To Trammel’s credit, his arm got progressively stronger throughout the spring and summer seasons and is now seen as closer to playable than his below-average status. So his one big weakness is now just a minor weakness. And all his strengths — plus to plus-plus speed, plus range in center, average raw power, absurd athleticism — remain. All of those traits give Trammel a high floor even if his bat doesn’t come around as hoped. If it does, he’s a star.
2.43 – C Chris Okey
On Chris Okey (55) from December 2015…
JR C Chris Okey is in a great position heading into his draft year as an athletic, above-average all-around defensive catcher who can run a little bit. In today’s game, that’s exactly what big league teams want in a catcher, especially if you throw in the (overrated by the internet in terms of importance, but not altogether unimportant) ability to frame pitches. As I’ve written about countless times before (including the quoted Okey blurb from October you can read below), as the run environment has shifted away from the highest highs of the PED-era so too has the general preference for athleticism and defensive reliability behind the plate. This shift has come largely at the expense of big power and raw arm strength at the position. Mobility, flexibility, and fundamentally sound glovework is what moves the needle now. I’m thinking of recent early picks like Taylor Ward, Max Pentecost, Reese McGuire, and Justin O’Conner as the prototypes for this latest wave. Athletes like Russell Martin, Carlos Ruiz, Jonathan Lucroy, and Buster Posey (the man I remember watching play a decent shortstop once upon a time at Florida State) all represent the best case scenario for this player archetype; not coincidentally, those guys all rank in the top nine in fWAR since 2010 with a lot of their value tied up in excellent defensive numbers.
So what does any of this really have to do with Okey? While it’s great that he ticks off many of the boxes that teams like in a catching prospect, nobody is drafting a theoretical catcher archetype. Okey may be a fine example of the modern catcher, but that doesn’t mean he’s a slam dunk first round catcher. Here’s what I wrote about him a few months back…
Okey doesn’t have quite the same thunder in his bat as [Matt] Thaiss, but his strong hands, agile movements behind the plate, and average or better arm give him enough ammo to be in the mix for first college catching off the board. The days of the big, strong-armed, plus power, and questionable contact catcher seem to be dwindling as more and more teams appear willing to go back to placing athleticism atop their list of desired attributes for young catching prospects. Hard to say that’s wrong based on where today’s speed and defense style of game looks like it’s heading.
That all holds up today (obviously…it’s been two months!), but it should be noted that the nice things said about his game are a step below what many (myself included) were saying about him after his senior season of high school. His defense behind the plate never quite reached the threshold where you’d call any one component of his game consistently plus. He’s shown some plus pop times in the past, sure, but not as often as average to above-average times. I don’t think anybody would have imagined he’d get more athletic past his teenage years — time has a way of catching up to everybody — but there is a little bit more stiffness to him at present than you might think if going off those old scouting reports. He’s still the athletic, above-average all-around defensive catcher who can run a little bit that we mentioned at the top. And if we’re going to call him out some for slipping a bit — or, perhaps more accurately, not developing as hoped — with the glove, then it’s only right to praise him for the maturation of his power. What was once considered promising but far off has turned into displays of average or better present power with the shot at plus raw still out there. I’d err on the side of caution with his future power grade and put him closer to the average to above-average range where it currently plays, but that still means he could be a steady 15-20 home run bat at his peak. One interesting name that I heard as a comparison that makes a little bit of sense: Mike Lieberthal.
I have to be honest, I really like that Lieberthal comp. That’s some of my best work right there. My updated notes on Okey include this line, exclamation point and all: “average glove, average arm, average power, average everything!” That’s Chris Okey. Coincidentally, Mike Lieberthal finished his career with a wRC+ of 100. Can’t get much more average than that. Average is a really good thing, especially if you’re a catcher. Only five qualified catchers posted average or better wRC+ last season. The number only jumps to eleven if you open things way up to include all catchers with at least 250 PA. An average offensive catcher has a really strong shot at finishing in the top five to ten in terms of value at the position. Okey’s average tools all get a little bit of boost for me when you factor in his above-average athleticism and exceptional makeup. There’s plenty to argue about the ultimate utility of even including a note about a prospect’s “makeup” (whatever that means to you) in these draft reviews, so I’ll just say that if you’re going to make it a priority at any one position then let it be catcher. Hard work, leadership, communication skills, ability to take coaching, passion for the game and understanding its place in a larger universe…all particularly important for a catcher. I like Okey so much that projecting about a league average catcher feels fair almost as a floor with a run of above-average years as a ceiling.
(Got a few other interesting comps for Okey that I thought were worth passing along. Some are better than others, but I’ll leave it up to you to decide. I still like Lieberthal, but names like Wellington Castillo, AJ Ellis, and Wilson Ramos have all been floated to me at one point or another. Also got this one…
.336/.438/.598 – 37 BB/47 K – 244 AB
.339/.465/.611 – 51 BB/54 K – 239 AB
.329/.425/.546 – 89 BB/116 K
.301/.392/.504 – 100 BB/136 K
Top is Chris Iannetta, bottom is Okey. From his pre-draft scouting report at Baseball America…
Iannetta could go as high as the third round after a stellar junior season. He reminds scouts of Joe Girardi, though he’s lost some life in his lower half and doesn’t run like Girardi did. Like Girardi, Iannetta has a short, compact stroke and a mature approach to hitting, leading to consistent, hard contact. His other tools are unspectacular, but he’s an average receiver and has an average arm that might play up a bit because of his quick release. His younger brother Matt is a Rhode Island prep player who has signed with North Carolina.
Sounds vaguely Okey-ish, right?)
3.79 – RHP Nick Hanson
I’ve long had a weird affinity for pitchers out of cold weather states like Minnesota — Sam Carlson is next man up for 2017, by the way — so it’s no shock that I liked the solidly built Nick Hanson (171) out of Prior Lake HS. His size, projection, occasional bouts of wildness, and Kentucky commitment had makes it easy to mentally tie him to former Wildcat starters like Alex Meyer and Kyle Cody, but I think the present version of Hanson is ahead of where those eventual college guys were as teenagers. Hanson’s fastball (87-93, 95-96 peak) and curve (average or better now 75-78, above-average to plus eventually) are exciting enough as is, so tossing on an average-ish split-changeup at such a young age is icing on the cake. So much can go wrong with prep pitching prospects and the relatively low ranking of Hanson pre-draft reflects the unpredictability that scares me off players like Hanson every June, but I still find myself liking this pick a lot for Cincinnati even knowing the potential downside.
4.108 – LHP Scott Moss
On Scott Moss (285) from May 2016…
Moss is a wild card as another good yet wild performer with the size (6-5, 215) and stuff (90-94 FB, solid breaking ball and low-80s CU) to make a big impact at the end of games as a professional. The further he gets from his own Tommy John surgery, the better he’s been.
Every day is another day further for Moss, who finished the year striking out 12.13 batters per nine with 3.52 BB/9 and a 1.57 ERA out of the Florida bullpen. His strikeout numbers were sliced almost in half (6.81 K/9) in his 38.1 inning pro debut. The encouraging news is that his run prevention (2.35 ERA) remained strong even when tasked with starting games consistently for the first time since high school. That vote of confidence from the Cincinnati developmental staff combined with the late-season gem of a start Moss threw for the Gators and a highly effective three-pitch mix make the idea of continuing to use Moss in the rotation a very intriguing possibility. I liked Moss as a potential multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen coming out of Florida (still the most likely outcome if I were a betting man), but this new ceiling as a potential mid-rotation starter (assuming his stuff and health allow it) turns this pick from good to great.
A weird but fun subplot to follow from this draft will be which of the three key Gators relievers good enough to start (Moss, Shaun Anderson, Dane Dunning) have the best pro careers.
5.138 – RHP Ryan Hendrix
Two quick blurbs that tell the story of Ryan Hendrix’s (312) 2016 college season and the impact it had on his draft stock. First, from March 2016…
He’s got the heat (mid-90s peak), breaking ball (low- to mid-80s CB flashes plus), and enough of a changeup (83-86) to potentially make the switch to the rotation at the next level. If not, he’s a potential quick-moving reliever with late-inning upside. Win-win!
And then from May 2016…
His teammate Ryan Hendrix hasn’t been quite as good – more whiffs, more walks, and a lot more runs allowed – but remains a good bet to go high in the draft because of his premium stuff (94-98 FB, 83-86 breaking ball that flashes plus) and correctable flaws.
Hendrix’s premium stuff and correctable flaws remain. His pro debut (9.18 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9) looked a lot more like his dominant 2015 season (10.53 K/9 and 3.97 BB/9) than his erratic 2016 (12.81 K/9 and 7.11 BB/9), but one stat from his first 35.1 professional innings jumps out. Hendrix uncorked 11 wild pitches in his debut. That’s good for a 2.80 WP/9. This took me down a weird rabbit hole about wild pitches. Did you know that Felix Hernandez has thrown the most wild pitches this decade with 86? I never would have guessed that, though I guess it makes sense that a “good” pitcher like Hernandez would be near the top of a list of a “bad” counting stat. More sensible guesses like AJ Burnett, Tim Lincecum, Francisco Liriano, and Edwin Jackson round out the top five. I don’t have the patience to look at everybody, but a quick glance reveals that the highest WP/9 among those who rank near the top of the overall list is Garrett Richards. His 0.80 WP/9 (almost a third lower than Hendrix’s, FWIW) is higher than any other starting pitcher I found. If I go deeper and look at qualified relievers as well, then Pedro Stop takes the prize at a whopping 1.06 WP/9. Bartolo Colon has only thrown three wild pitches this decade. That means that in any given nine-inning stretch, you might expect to see Colon throw .025 wild pitches. Baseball Draft Report: come for the baseball draft reporting, stay for the inane statistical minutiae!
First round stuff + tenth round control = fifth round selection. Math don’t lie. Hendrix could be a relatively quick-moving reliever if/when he figures out what was up with his control in 2016 at Texas A&M. As mentioned, the early pro returns were certainly encouraging. I’m buying Hendrix as a future big league asset with a ceiling that likely falls just short of making him a consistent option to close.
6.168 – RHP Tyler Mondile
On Tyler Mondile (212) from May 2016…
Tyler Mondile looked really good. He actually tied Groome for the hottest heater of the night at 94 MPH — I had them both getting there four different times, but saw Mondile up to 95 on a few of the guns around me — and had the more consistent velocity throughout the evening. In a funny twist, Mondile happened to hit 94 with his fastball three straight times in his first head-to-head battle with Groome at the plate. Groome took a fastball in for a strike, a fastball further in for a ball, and a fastball on the outer half to put him in a 1-2 hole before the at bat ended preemptively when Mondile got a little help from his catcher with a stolen base threat eliminated at third base. If there was any doubt that Mondile was pumped for this one — and two seconds of watching him stomp around the field pre-game would push those thoughts aside right quick — then the 94, 94, 94 to start the at bat against the opposing starting pitcher was a clear indicator of how amped up the Gloucester Catholic righthander must have been feeling.
Beyond the strong showing of arm strength, I was impressed with the admittedly few curves Mondile managed to drop in for strikes (76-79 MPH). He used it more as a pitch in and around the strike zone than as a chase pitch, but it had the shape and consistency to worth in both directions with continued use. In time, the pitch looked like it could be a legitimate second weapon. There’s a good bit of effort in Mondile’s delivery and his high level of demonstrative emotion on the mound (something that would make him a fan favorite in many markets) might mean a future in the bullpen could happen sooner rather than later, but reports of his changeup being an average or better offering and his ability to repeat said delivery make him worth trying as a starter as long as possible. I wouldn’t necessarily say his 6-1, 185 pound frame screamed projection, but his upper-half looked like it could stand to put on at least another ten pounds of weight to help even out his stout lower-body. Despite his relatively short stature, Mondile’s legs looked like they’d pass any relevant strength test. In this specific class it would be hard to call him a first rounder, but I could see him making sense for any team anywhere between rounds three and six. I came away believing that he likely made himself some money based on how he looked in front of a crowd with that many influential executives.
Not a bad summation of Mondile’s present stuff and future projection, if I do say so myself. Mondile has all the ingredients (three pitches, repeatable mechanics, solid command) to remain a starter in the pros. As far as upside goes, that’s all you could want in a sixth round teenage pitching prospect. My hunch is that he winds up in the bullpen over the long haul, and I’m not sure that allowing his high-energy self to go 100% in short bursts would be a bad thing. In whatever role he lands, Mondile is a talented arm well worth a six round pick.
7.198 – LHP Andy Cox
The selection of Andy Cox in round seven begins a run of Cincinnati saving some serious cash ($30,000 spent total) on four selected players from round seven to ten. The Reds also effectively ended their draft earlier than most teams with only one pick signed past round twenty-nine. I’m not necessarily faulting Cincinnati here — they did spend almost all of their nearly $14 million in pool money, so it’s not like they went cheap on the whole — but their approach both at the top and bottom of the draft feels a bit off to me. Over 80% of the money they spent on the 2016 MLB Draft paid for their top three picks. That was similar to the one team picking ahead of them in the draft (Philadelphia), but way more than two of the other three (in addition to the Phillies) top draft spenders (69% for Atlanta, 54% for San Diego). My favorite draft so far belongs to the Cardinals, a team that spent 61% of their draft total on their top three picks and managed to bring in seven prospects past the thirtieth round. Comparisons like this are complicated because of the current draft rules in place and I don’t have any grand conclusions, but it’s all at least a little interesting, right?
Anyway, let’s talk about Andy Cox. Here’s a little something on him from April 2015…
His teammate, LHP Andy Cox, is one of my favorite “sleepers,” thanks in part to his well-rounded arsenal (88-91 FB, average or better low-80s SL, average or better CU) that could make him an interesting relief to rotation project in the pro ranks.
I still think he has the stuff to remain a starter, but projecting his command and control for that role seems like a stretch. His repertoire is still strong enough to make him a potential relief option with continued growth. The seventh round seems a little too early for me for a player like Cox, but the allure of saving some cash and landing a decent prospect must have been too strong for the Reds to ignore. I’ve never had to juggle economic and political considerations in a draft room, so I won’t kill a team for taking a money-saving senior that I’m sure they like on merit even if I don’t feel the same way.
8.228 – 2B John Sansone
A .370/.455/.576 offensive year in the ACC is nothing to sneeze at, senior season or not. John Sansome is a classic Florida State style hitter with exemplary plate discipline and more power than you might believe at first look. He’s also a decent runner who can play multiple spots in the infield. If the way he curtailed the strikeouts — the one downside to scouting the classic Florida State style hitter: how much is genuine plate discipline with an innate knowledge of the strike zone and vision to pick up spin/location early…and how much is just taking pitches because that’s how you’ve been coached — in his senior season is real, then Sansome might have enough positive qualities to play regularly at second or third. If not, then he still has a shot to keep advancing as a potential utility infielder capable of playing anywhere on the dirt.
If you really wanted to mislead people by ignoring many important contextual factors (plus the pesky scouting thing), then you could do this…
…and ask which one was the second overall pick in the draft and which one was the eighth round selection. Using this to disparage Nick Senzel would be silly for a variety of reasons, but it’s not a terrible way of saying “Hey, maybe our eighth round pick ain’t so bad!”
9.258 – RHP Alex Webb
Alex Webb saved the Reds a ton of money, but still could wind up as a big league pitcher. That’s good work by them. My favorite of the four consecutive Cincinnati senior-signs, Webb has a quality low-90s fastball with a decent curve and usable change. It’s not a thrilling package, but it looks a little nicer when you account for his cold weather background, plus control, and outstanding track record as a Thunderbird. ERA is not something quoted often around here, but if you can throw 104.1 innings with a 1.38 ERA then you’re doing something right. Webb has all the ingredients to profile as a back of the rotation starter, but could be best served moving to the pen and letting his fastball fly.
10.288 – RHP Lucas Benenati
I was a little intrigued with Lucas Benenati coming into his senior season at Kansas State after a solid junior year (7.31 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9) and reports of decent middle relief style stuff (low-90s fastball, ability to command serviceable breaking ball) filtering through. His final season as a Wildcat was rough enough (6.68 K/9 and 4.45 BB/9) that I opted to leave him out of the 2016 MLB Draft conversation entirely. He was rather good in pro ball including time spent in low-A Dayton, but as a guy who turns 24-years-old in May of his first full pro season that kind of speedy acclimation to pro ball is expected.
11.318 – RHP Joel Kuhnel
On Joel Kuhnel from March 2016…
I’m less in on Joel Kuhnel. The big righty from Texas-Arlington, who incidentally reminds me of one of the many flame-throwing Dallas Baptist relievers from last year, is a favorite of many I’ve spoken to, but, for reasons both on the scouting side and the numbers side, I’m not really feeling it. It’s very likely a reliever profile (to me), so some of his value is cut off at the legs already. I do think he can be a fine bullpen piece with continued refinement — starting with a fastball that touches 96-97 and a hard 86-87 MPH slider doesn’t hurt – so depending on where he falls on draft day he could be a nice value for a team searching for a potential late-inning arm. I’ve gotten a Toddy Coffey comp for him that works in a few different ways (though I’m unclear if Kuhnel’s mound entrance is as entertaining as Coffey’s), but I think that could wind up being a little light in the long run. Not that there’s anything wrong with an eight-year career that earns you just under seven million bucks, of course. I suppose part of my relative lack of love for Kuhnel is anticipating how highly others will value him come June. It’s not ideal logic, but it’s all I’ve got for now.
Kuhnel going in the eleventh round is still a little rich for me, but I can live with it. There was some top five round hype early in the year that made no sense, so this is certainly more palatable by comparison. No matter what round Kuhnel was selected in, he’s a bit of a mystery to project going forward. Maybe that mid-season Todd Coffey comp should have been a clue that he’s be a tricky guy to figure out. I like his fastball (90-95 MPH, 97 peak) and slider (consistently at least average 86-87, flashes plus) combination, but can’t quite put my finger on why he doesn’t miss bats like he should. He kept that trend going in the pros: 4.82 K/9 as a sophomore, 6.35 K/9 as a junior, and 6.00 K/9 in his 21.0 inning pro debut. He also kept his very low walk rate up in the pros: 1.93 BB/9 in 2015 to 1.99 BB/9 in 2016 to a minuscule 0.43 BB/9 in the pros. He rolled his fair share of ground balls in his debut, too. Not a ton of missed bats, very few free passes, and (small sample size alert) promising ground ball tendencies — what to make of that? The formula for Kuhnel to continue to succeed could be to follow the Jim Johnson (6.54 K/9, 2.92 BB/9, 58.0 GB%) model.
12.348 – C Cassidy Brown
The early professional success of Cassidy Brown (.322/.409/.383 with 20 BB/32 K) could be small sample size noise. It could also be the beginning of a nifty little victory for scouting over statistical analysis, as if that battle was ever really a battle worth fighting in the first place. If you humor me and go along with the premise, then Brown, a powerful 6-3, 215 pounder with a big arm, lots of strength in his swing, and well above-average athleticism for a catcher, is merely doing what it looks like a guy like him should have been doing from the start. He may not be exactly what you envision a young catching prospect should look like, but he’s pretty damn close. If that pro debut is a sign of his skills catching up to his tools, then the Reds have landed a legitimate sleeper with real starting upside in the twelfth round.
13.378 – RHP Ryan Olson
What I lack in updated Ryan Olson notes from college, I make up for it in old scouting notes on Ryan Olson from high school…
RHP Ryan Olson (Western Christian HS, California): 88-92 FB with plus sink; good 79-82 SL; iffy 76-78 CB; good 81-82 CU; 6-2, 180 pounds
His last fully healthy season at Cal Poly Pomona saw him put up really good (9.35 K/9 and 2.34 BB/9) numbers. Assuming that his stuff has held up, I’m intrigued. An even more fun assumption would be that the twenty or so pounds he’s put on since his prep days and the usual assortment of physical, mental, and emotional growth that an individual experiences as they transition to teenage kid to young adult equates
14.408 – LHP Jesse Adams
On Jesse Adams from December 2015…
SR LHP Jesse Adams is not particularly big nor does he throw particularly hard, but he’s been consistently effective and figures to remain so as a professional. I think there’s clear matchup lefthanded reliever upside to him with the chance that a team less concerned about his size and more enamored with his three-pitch mix (87-91 FB, above-average mid-70s CB, upper-70s CU) will let him keep starting.
I’m less enamored with Adams now than I was a year ago, but that matchup lefty upside still seems attainable if he can hit the ground running in pro ball. His control slid back a bit in 2016 and he became more fastball/changeup reliant. I’m not particularly hopeful that Adams sees the big leagues, but I’m rooting for him if only because of a new-ish super slow upper-60s curve he introduced into his arsenal this past spring for kicks. It’s not quite the RJ Swindle starter kit (there will never be another RJ Swindle…), but it’s the closest we’ve seen in a while.
15.438 – RHP Jesse Stallings
Back-to-back Jesse’s off the board to the Reds in rounds fourteen and fifteen. I often wonder about things like this. It had to be intentional, at least on some level, right? The odds of them waiting another thirty picks and being able to take Jesse Stallings in the sixteenth round after first taking Jesse Adams in the fourteenth round were really, really good. Maybe they just loved the two Jesse’s so much that they couldn’t risk losing out on one, but I’ll believe until my dying day that somebody in the Reds draft room thought it would be fun to take back-to-back Jesse’s and things progressed from there. Anyway, Stallings has a really good arm (low- to mid-90s fastball up to 96-97, quality splitter) and could work himself into the middle relief prospect mix before too long, but a spotty college track record (strong run prevention, mediocre peripherals) pumps the breaks on that enthusiastic outlook a bit.
16.468 – OF Mauro Conde
I’ve got nothing on Mauro Conde outside of general positive vibes (strong arm, decent runner, bat is promising but still a question mark) from secondary sources that may or may not mean much in the big picture. Still have to give the Reds credit for getting a high school prospect signed past round ten. I’ll repeat it in every draft review if I have to, but any high school player signed in a double-digit round is a good investment in the current draft system.
19.558 – RHP Matt Blandino
I lost track of Matt Blandino after two just all right seasons at Central Connecticut State. Turns out he landed about ninety minutes away from me at Felician University. Small world. Blandino was really good as a junior, so that’s cool. He was also really good in his pro debut with the Reds. That’s also cool. Blandino gets by more on command and pitchability than knockout stuff, so he should carve up hitters for a few years before getting his first real challenge in the upper-minors.
21.618 – LHP Andrew Wright
Having just finished the Giants draft review, this pick makes a lot of sense. Took me a minute to realize that Cincinnati and not San Francisco took the 6-5, 225 pound lefthander from USC with a big fastball (90-94, 95 peak) and little control (10.70 BB/9 in 14.1 junior year innings). I’m willing to give the athletic Wright a bit of a pass for his wild ways due to his two-way background, limited time on the mound, and the adjustments that come when you go from mid-80s in high school to mid-90s in college.
22.648 – RHP Aaron Quillen
The well-traveled Aaron Quillen is coming off two really solid seasons as one of Belmont’s top starters. His size (6-3, 200) and stuff (88-92 FB) paint him as a fairly ordinary mid-round potential middle relief prospect. Everybody thinks that “ordinary,” “generic,” and “pedestrian” are insults, but that’s never the intent. There’s no shame in being familiar. Plus, being an “ordinary” middle relief prospect in professional baseball beats the breaks off of being an extraordinary cubicle dweller, right? No offense to 98% of the working population, of course.
23.678 – SS Manny Cruz
The Reds finally get their man. Manny Cruz was originally a thirty-ninth round pick by Cincinnati out of high school, so it’s only right that they wind up together again three years later after Cruz’s successful (.327/.427/.437) three year run at Southern New Hampshire. Included in that career line is his eye-opening .373/.487/.509 (44 BB/30 K) junior season. Cruz followed that up with a strong pro debut (.272/.355/.400, 118 wRC+) for the AZL Reds. He played almost exclusively at second in said debut, so showing off increased defensive flexibility going forward will likely be what makes or breaks him as a prospect. If he can play on the left side of the infield as well as he can at second, then he gets put in the overflowing “potential utility player” pile that all teams seem to have. There are worse fates than that.
“Fun” fact that I’ll include in lieu of actual Manny Cruz knowledge: of the eleven players drafted out of Southern New Hampshire in the modern era (all but one since 2011), Cruz is only the second position player to come out of the Penman program. SNHU is really Pitcher U, am I right?
24.708 – 1B Bruce Yari
I hate that the Reds went back to British Columbia a second time to select Bruce Yari fifteen rounds after grabbing Alex Webb, but accepting that all teams double-dip with colleges comes with the reality of following the draft so closely. It’s hard to buy the “you can’t criticize a front office since you’re a damn dirty outsider” argument I hear all the time when you see teams taking the convenient route over the best option. That said, there are times when convenience and quality intersect. When you add in the draft value of getting a thumper like Bruce Yari this late in the draft, then you have yourself a real QVC pick*.
* My mom forced my sister and I to go to career camp when we were kids. She was all about free/cheap day camps that got us out of the house and doing stuff. Can’t wait to do the same to my kids someday. Anyway, at career camp we went to day trips to all sorts of local businesses. Two have always stuck out: the trip to the Philadelphia Inquirer offices (where I managed to get my name in the paper by lying about Spam…long story, but the short version is that I was a weird kid) and the trip to QVC headquarters. One of the few things I remember specifically from that visit was learning what QVC stood for. I knew then that one day I’d use that knowledge in something vitally important that may or may not change the world as we know it forever. Today was that day. Now we wait…
25.738 – 2B CJ Wright
Remember that potential utility player pile that every team has that was referenced two rounds earlier? If Colby Wright is the guy at the top of said pile, then you’re doing all right. I really like Wright as a potential big league backup infielder. Between his time at Kansas and with the Reds, he has experience at every infield spot already, so that gives him a leg up on some challengers to his utility throne off the bat. Speaking of the bat, Wright has a good one. If his development threads a very tight needle (i.e., things go perfectly), he could do enough to warrant regular time at second or third one day. That’s the rich projection, so we’ll stick with the more realistic utility future. If he does, then he’ll bring this special skill to the table. From March 2015…
Kansas JR 2B/SS Colby Wright has been a baseball magnet this season (11 HBP in 65 official AB!). I liked his pop, patience, and glove combination coming into the year, and nothing has moved me off that as of yet.
My quick math has him at getting hit once every fourteen times he came to the plate throughout his four years at Kansas. That’s insane. He then got hit nine times in 153 professional plate appearances. That’s right on the Brandon Guyer pace. Wright got plunked once every seventeen trips to the plate while Guyer’s career mark is once per ever sixteen and change. Is Colby Wright the next Brandon Guyer? No, no, he is not. But he does get hit by a lot of pitches like him, so they at least share that potential similarity.
26.768 – RHP Patrick Riehl
A really good read on Patrick Riehl can be found here. A choice excerpt…
After recovering from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, Schuler was not surprised to see Riehl begin to throw harder than ever. Schuler likened the recovery to those recovering from Tommy John surgery, where pitchers will have to basically learn how to throw all over again, which will show an improvement in their mechanics, allowing them to throw at a higher velocity than they once thought was their max.
After recovering from surgery, Riehl began to hit the mid-90s.
When Riehl began hitting in the mid-90s, interest in him grew. Scouts began to take notice of him and he ultimately was invited to a Cincinnati Reds tryout.
That mid-90s velocity helped Riehl sit down 12.44 batters per nine in his draft year. The newness of the velocity, however, may have played a part in spotty command and below-average control. In addition to the whiffs, Riehl also walked 5.49 batters per nine (plus eight wild pitches and two bean balls) on the way to a 6.57 ERA in 24.2 innings pitched. It’s not every year you see a Division II pitcher drafted with an ERA that high, but mid-90s heat is mid-90s heat.
For reasons I can’t remember, I made note of Riehl’s last three appearances for Mars Hill. Pitching in relief against Tusculum, Montreat, and Bluefield State, Riehl did the following: 5 IP 2 H 0 ER 3 BB 8 K. I’m not quite sure why past-me thought those last three outings were so noteworthy; if I had to guess, I’d say there was a connection between his recovery from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and the promise of a strong finish. Considering he pitched really well in his debut — 8.45 K/9 and 2.82 BB/9 in 38.1 IP more than qualifies — that would seem to be the most likely reason. Very interesting sleeper.
29.858 – OF Daniel Sweet
I’ve slowed down some with these draft reviews since I first started a few months ago. That’s a bit of a shame for Daniel Sweet, who would have gotten one thousand words minimum if the Reds were one of the first teams profiled rather than one of the last. Still, I like Sweet a ton and am happy to write about him as a draft prospect one last time. The amount of words spend on him over the past four years is admittedly a little silly for a player who turned out to be a twenty-ninth round pick, but it at least backs me up as a charter member of the Sweet fan club. I’m no Sweet-loving-Johnny-come-lately, dammit. Here’s a fun excerpt from March 2016…
Daniel Sweet came into the season as the top Dallas Baptist hitting prospect for me and I don’t want to be reactionary by moving him off because of the hot starts of those around him, but some of his teammates have made things mighty crowded at the top. Sweet’s blend of power, speed, and athleticism have made him a favorite for years. I still believe in his bat enough to think he can make it as a future regular in center and potential big league leadoff hitter. In the event that doesn’t work out, his overall skill set lends itself to quality backup. I’ve compared him to a more powerful Andrew Toles in the past; Toles’s pro career hasn’t quite been all it was expected to be so far, so take that comparison with the requisite block of salt.
If Sweet can continue to tap into his considerable physical gifts as a pro (above-average raw power, above-average or better speed) then he legitimately could have a similar professional impact as Andrew Toles. I loved Toles as a draft prospect, so his resurgence in 2016 emboldens me to continue to tout Sweet as a potential big league regular. Like Toles, he already has the defensive thing down, so it comes down to whether or not he can do enough offensively to warrant steady playing time in center. I obviously think he can. The better bet is quality fourth outfielder who plays good defense and drills righthanded pitching, an outcome that would still represent tremendous value this late in the draft.
36.1068 – 2B Ty Blankmeyer
I saw Ty Blankmeyer play a few different times over his years at St. John’s. Never really gave much thought to him as a pro prospect. High makeup and a lifetime spent around the game mean different things to different people, though.
41.1217 – OF TJ Friedl
The undrafted — or forty-first rounder if you’re feeling cheeky — TJ Friedl got $732,500 to sign after a variety of factors (confusion and cost, mostly) kept him from being selected in the 2016 MLB Draft. He’s got plenty the speed and athleticism to make him a defensive asset in center. His approach at the plate that could make him a potential top of the order hitter if his lack of power doesn’t undercut the rest of his offensive skills. All in all, it’s a nice package made even nicer when the expense is only cash and not a top five round pick. My fake ranking of him would have put him around 115th overall in this class, ahead of Michael Paez and Bryson Brigman (his closest comparison that I can see) but just behind fellow draft-eligible sophomore Charles LeBlanc.
Unsigned Prospects and Where You Can Find Them in 2017
Mitchell Traver (TCU), JC Flowers (Florida State), Todd Lott (Louisiana), Dion Henderson (TCU), Cooper Johnson (Mississippi), Vincent Byrd (?), Austin Langworthy (Florida), Matt Crohan (Winthrop), Nick Derr (Florida State), Ty Weber (Illinois), Walker Whitworth (Missouri Southern), Alec Benavides (Alvin CC), John Wilson (Old Dominion), Otis Statum (Nevada), Michael Bienlien (NC State)
2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – ACC (PART TWO)
For Part One, see there. For Part Two, see…here.
Zack Collins over Corey Ray won’t happen on draft day and that’s fine. I’m taking the man who might have the best all-around offensive profile of any amateur hitter in the country if my neck is on the line. That was not intended to rhyme, but we’ll let it stand. I really do like Corey Ray: he can run, he has pop, his approach has taken a major step forward, and he should be able to stick in center for at least the first few years of club control. I mean, you’d be a fool not to like him at this point. But liking him as a potential top ten pick and loving him as a legit 1-1 candidate are two very different things.
I don’t have much to add about all of the good that Ray brings to the field each game. If you’ve made your way here, you already know. Instead of rehashing Ray’s positives, let’s focus on some of his potential weaknesses. In all honesty, the knocks on Ray are fairly benign. His body is closer to maxed-out than most top amateur prospects. His base running success and long-term utility in center field may not always be there as said body thickens up and loses some athleticism. Earlier in the season Andrew Krause of Perfect Game (who is excellent, by the way) noted an unwillingness or inability to pull the ball with authority as often as some might like to see. Some might disagree that a young hitter can be too open to hitting it to all fields – my take: it’s generally a good thing, but, as we’ve all been taught at a young age, all things in moderation – but easy pull-side power will always be something scouts want to see. At times, it appeared Ray was almost fighting it. Finally, Ray’s improved plate discipline, while part of a larger trend in the right direction, could be a sample size and/or physical advantage thing more than a learned skill that can be expected each year going forward. Is he really the player who has drastically upped his BB% while knocking his K%? Or is just a hot hitter using his experience and intimidating presence – everybody knows and fears Corey Ray at the college level – to help goose the numbers? It should also pointed out that Ray’s gaudy start only ranks him seventh on the Louisville team in batting average, fourth in slugging, and ninth in on-base percentage. I’m not sure what that means, but it’s worth noting.
(I mentioned weaknesses I’ve heard, so I think it’s only fair to share my thoughts on what they mean for him going forward. I think he’s a center fielder at least until he hits thirty, so that’s a non-issue for me. The swing thing is interesting, but it’s not something I’m qualified to comment on at this time. And I think the truth about his plate discipline likely falls in between those two theories: I’d lean more towards the changes being real, though maybe not quite as real as they’ve looked on the stat sheet so far this year.)
So what do we have with Ray as we head into June? He’s the rare prospect to get the same comp from two separate sources this spring. Both D1Baseball and Baseball America have dropped a Ray Lankford comp on him. I’ve tried to top that, but I think it’s tough to beat, especially if you look at Lankford’s 162 game average: .272/.364/.477 with 23 HR, 25 SB, and 79 BB/148 K. Diamond Minds has some really cool old scouting reports on Lankford including a few gems from none other than Mike Rizzo if you are under thirty and don’t have as clear a picture of what type of player we’re talking about when we talk about a young Ray Lankford. One non-Lankford comparison that came to mind – besides the old BA comp of Jackie Bradley and alternatives at D1 that include Carlos Gonzalez and Curtis Granderson – was Charlie Blackmon. It’s not perfect and I admittedly went there in part because I saw Blackmon multiple teams at Georgia Tech, but Ray was a harder player than anticipated to find a good comparison for (must-haves: pop, speed, CF defense; bonus points: lefthanded hitter, similar short maxed-out athletic physique, past production similarities) than I initially thought. I think Blackmon hits a lot of the targets with the most notable difference being body type. Here’s a quick draft year comparison…
.396/.469/.564 – 20 BB/21 K – 25/30 SB – 250 AB
.331/.398/.611 – 18 BB/20 K – 31/36 SB – 157 AB
Top is Blackmon’s last year at Georgia Tech, bottom is Corey Ray (so far) in 2016. Here is Blackmon’s 162 game average to date: .287/.334/.435 with 16 HR, 29 SB, and 32 BB/98 K. Something in between Lankford (great physical comp) and Blackmon (better tools comp) could look like this: .280/.350/.450 with 18 HR, 27 SB, and 50 BB/120 K. That could be AJ Pollock at maturity. From his pre-draft report at Baseball America (I’d link to it but BA’s site is so bad that I have to log in and log out almost a half-dozen times any time I want to see old draft reports like this)…
Pollock stands out most for his athleticism and pure hitting ability from the right side. He has a simple approach, a quick bat and strong hands. Scouts do say he’ll have to stop cheating out on his front side and stay back more on pitches in pro ball…He projects as a 30 doubles/15 homers threat in the majors, and he’s a slightly above-average runner who has plus speed once he gets going. Pollock also has good instincts and a solid arm in center field.
Minus the part about the right side, that could easily fit for Ray. For good measure, here’s the Pollock (top) and Ray (bottom) draft year comparison…
.365/.445/.610 – 30 BB/24 K – 21/25 SB – 241 AB
.331/.398/.611 – 18 BB/20 K – 31/36 SB – 157 AB
Not too far off the mark. I’m coming around on Pollock as a potential big league peak comp for Ray. I think there are a lot of shared traits, assuming you’re as open to looking past the difference in handedness as I am. A friend offered Starling Marte, another righthanded bat, as an additional point of reference. I can dig it. Blackmon, Pollock, and Marte have each had above-average offensive seasons while showing the physical ability to man center field and swipe a bunch of bags. I also keep coming back to Odubel Herrera as a comparable talent, but I’m not sure I’m ready to go there just yet. He fits that overall profile, though. A well-rounded up-the-middle defender with above-average upside at the plate and on the bases who has the raw talent to put up a few star seasons in his peak: that’s the hope with Ray. The few red flags laid out above are enough to make that best case scenario less than a certainty than I’d want in a potential 1-1 pick, but his flaws aren’t so damning that the top ten (possibly top five) should be off the table.
So if Ray is worth a potential top five/ten pick, then what does that mean for the player ranked ahead of him? I’m close to out of superlatives for Zack Collins’s bat. If he can catch, he’s a superstar. If he can’t, then he’s still a potential big league power bat capable of hitting in the middle of the championship lineup for the next decade. I realize first basemen aren’t typically sought after at the top of the draft. There are perfectly valid reasons for that. But any time you have the chance at a potential top five bat at any given position, I think it’s all right to bend the rules a little. Positional value is important, but so is premium offensive production. Collins hitting and hitting a lot as a professional is one of the things I’m most sure about in this draft class.
Nick Solak is an outstanding hitter. He can hit any pitch in any count and has shown himself plenty capable of crushing mistakes. His approach is impeccable, his speed above-average, and his defense dependable. I think he’s the best college second baseman in this class. His teammate Blake Tiberi is just as exciting to me. I think there’s a legit plus hit tool there and his athleticism is fantastic for an infielder. Every other physical tool should be at least average. I think Tiberi could be a future big league regular at third. These Louisville hitters are really, really good.
Chris Okey’s play isn’t the cause for his drop in stock, but rather the stellar work of almost every single catcher at the top of this class previously thought to be either slightly ahead of him or behind him. If he’s still a top five college catcher, then maybe he’s fifth. I’d have a hard time putting him ahead of Collins, Matt Thaiss, Logan Ice, and Jake Rogers, so fifth seems like his new draft ceiling. Again, not an indictment of his season per se but merely the reality that others have held serve or passed him by. Meanwhile Preston Palmeiro hasn’t lit the world on fire so much that his stock should rise, but the shallowness of this year’s first base class helps him stay firmly in the top five mix at the position.
Kel Johnson and Willie Abreu are similar prospects who have gone in different directions this spring. Both have massive raw power with massive holes in their swings. Johnson, the “newer” of the two prospects, is seen as the ascending hitter while Abreu, after three long years at Miami, is a victim of prospect fatigue. They make for a fascinating draft day pair.
Ben DeLuzio and Jacob Heyward are like the anti-Johnson/Abreu pair. This year they’ve shown impressive plate discipline while underwhelming in the power department. They have both flashed average or better raw power in the past, so the hope that they will eventually put it all together remains.
There were a few players I thought could do big things before the season that have not done big things this year. That’s about the least eloquent thing I’ve ever written, but you know what I mean. My anticipated breakout for Kyle Fiala has not come. I don’t know what to make of him right now. Nate Mondou’s approach has stepped forward, but his power has fallen back. That’s confusing. And the two Clemson bats I’ve long liked, Weston Wilson and Eli White, still have lots to work on. A little bit of late season magic would do all of these players some good. I’ll be rooting for them.
Meanwhile, Connor Jones, TJ Zeuch, and Zac Gallen are the only names among the elite pitchers in the conference that I think are sure-fire professional starting pitchers over the long haul. I’m bullish on Justin Dunn being able to remain in the rotation and Kyle Funkhouser still has that upside, but that’s about it beyond the obvious names. That sums up the ACC in 2016 pitching for me: few starting pitching locks, tons of relievers, and no real consensus after the top guy…who I actually am less sure about than most.
I’ve gone back and forth on Jones a few times throughout the draft process. For as much as I like him, there’s something about his game doesn’t quite add up just yet. He checks every box you’d want in a near-ML ready starting pitching prospect, but it’s hard to get too excited about a pitcher who has never truly dominated at the college level. My big question about Jones is whether or not he has that second gear that will allow him to consistently put away big league hitters in times of trouble. His stuff is perfectly suited to killing worms; in fact, his sinker, slider, and splitter combination has resulted in an impressive 65.25 GB% in 2016. But he’ll have to miss more bats to be more than a back of the rotation starter at the highest level. His K/9 year-by-year at Virginia: 6.55, 8.77, and 6.79. Those aren’t the kinds of numbers you’d expect out of a guy being talked up in some circles as a potential top ten pick and first college pitcher selected in the draft. This evaluation of Jones is a little bit like the scattered thoughts on Corey Ray shared above in that it highlights how tough it can be when you’re one of the top prospects in the country. Potential top half of the first round prospects get nitpicked in a way that mid-round players never will. Jones, like Ray, is an excellent prospect, but because a) everybody already knows the top two dozen or so “name” draft prospects are excellent and continuously talking about how great they are is tired, and b) the greater investment in top prospects necessitates a more thorough examination of their total game, getting picked apart more than most comes with the territory.
TJ Zeuch has come back from injury seemingly without missing a beat. I’m a big fan of just about everything he does. He’s got the size (6-7, 225), body control, tempo, and temperament to hold up as a starting pitcher for a long time. He’s also got a legit four-pitch mix that allows him to mix and match in ways that routinely leave even good ACC hitters guessing.
Even though North Carolina posts their rosters so late in the winter that I can’t give them a proper preview, I still managed to touch on Zac Gallen some…
It’ll be really interesting to see how high Gallen will rise in the real draft come June. He’s the kind of relatively safe, high-floor starting pitching prospect who either sticks in the rotation for a decade or tops out as a sixth starter better served moving to the bullpen to see if his stuff plays up there. This aggressive (pretend) pick by Boston should point to what side of that debate I side with. Gallen doesn’t do any one thing particularly well — stellar fastball command and a willingness to keep pounding in cutters stand out — but he throws five (FB, cutter, truer SL, CB, CU) pitches for strikes and competes deep into just about every start. There’s serious value in that.
That holds up today. Gallen’s profile seems like the type who gets overlooked during the draft, overlooked in the minors, and overlooked until he’s run through a few big league lineups before people begin to get wise. That’s all entirely anecdotal, but sometimes you’ve got to run with a hunch.
I came very close to putting Justin Dunn in the top spot. If he continues to show that he can hold up as a starting pitcher, then there’s a chance he winds up as the best pitching prospect in this conference by June. I’d love to see a better change-up between now and then as well. I’m pretty sure I’m out of words when it comes to Kyle Funkhouser. I hold out some hope that he’ll be a better pro than college pitcher because his raw stuff at its best is really that good, but there’s just so much inconsistency to his game that I can’t go all-in on him again. Maybe he’s fulfills the promise he showed last year, maybe he winds up more of a consistently inconsistent fifth starter/swingman type, or maybe he’s destined to a life of relief work. I no longer have any clue where his career is heading. I feel liberated.
If either Funkhouser or Dunn winds up in the bullpen over the long haul, they’ll join a whole bunch of other ACC arms who might fit best as late-inning relievers in the pro ranks. Bailey Clark could keep starting, but most of the smarter folk I talk to seem to think he’ll fit best as a closer in the pros. At his best his stuff rivals the best Jones has to offer, but the Virginia righthander’s command edge and less stressful delivery make him the better bet to remain in the rotation. I personally wouldn’t rule out Clark having a long and fruitful career as a starting pitcher, but I’ll concede that the thought of him unleashing his plus to plus-plus fastball (90-96, 98 peak and impossible to square up consistently) over and over again in shorter outings is mighty appealing. Truer relievers like Zack Burdi (who I think I like better than his brother), AJ Bogucki, Bryan Garcia, Spencer Trayner, and Jim Ziemba will all be valued in different ways come draft day, but all have the present ability to be quick movers and early contributors.
I don’t normally say stuff like this, but here we go: I really like how the ACC hitting list came out. If you listen to me about any one specific list this spring, this should probably be the one.
- Miami JR C/1B Zack Collins
- Louisville JR OF Corey Ray
- Virginia JR C Matt Thaiss
- Wake Forest JR 1B/RHP Will Craig
- Louisville JR 2B/OF Nick Solak
- Louisville rSO 3B/SS Blake Tiberi
- Notre Dame JR 2B/3B Cavan Biggio
- Clemson JR C Chris Okey
- North Carolina State JR C/3B Andrew Knizner
- North Carolina JR OF Tyler Ramirez
- North Carolina State JR 1B/OF Preston Palmeiro
- Georgia Tech SO OF/1B Kel Johnson
- Miami JR OF Willie Abreu
- Virginia JR SS/3B Daniel Pinero
- Georgia Tech JR SS Connor Justus
- Florida State JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio
- Miami JR OF Jacob Heyward
- Notre Dame JR 2B/SS Kyle Fiala
- Wake Forest JR 2B/OF Nate Mondou
- Clemson JR 3B/SS Weston Wilson
- Clemson JR SS/2B Eli White
- Wake Forest JR C Ben Breazeale
- North Carolina JR OF Tyler Lynn
- Virginia Tech rJR OF Saige Jenco
- Florida State SR 2B/SS John Sansone
- Florida State JR 1B/C Quincy Nieporte
- Louisville JR C Will Smith
- Louisville JR OF Logan Taylor
- Clemson rSO OF/1B Reed Rohlman
- Miami SR SS Brandon Lopez
- Boston College SR 3B/SS Joe Cronin
- North Carolina JR OF Adam Pate
- Georgia Tech JR OF Ryan Peurifoy
- Georgia Tech JR C Arden Pabst
- Florida State JR C/OF Gage West
- Miami JR 2B/SS Johnny Ruiz
- North Carolina SR SS/2B Eli Sutherland
- Florida State JR SS/2B Matt Henderson
- Georgia Tech JR OF Keenan Innis
- Boston College JR SS/3B Johnny Adams
- Boston College JR C Nick Sciortino
- Duke JR C Cristian Perez
- Notre Dame SR SS Lane Richards
- Georgia Tech SR 3B/SS Matt Gonzalez
- Virginia SR C Robbie Coman
- Wake Forest SR OF/2B Joey Rodriguez
- Notre Dame SR OF/LHP Zac Kutsulis
- Louisville JR OF Colin Lyman
- Duke rJR OF/1B Jalen Phillips
- Notre Dame JR C Ryan Lidge
- North Carolina State SR C Chance Shepard
- Pittsburgh SR OF/LHP Aaron Schnurbusch
- Pittsburgh JR OF Nick Yarnall
- Pittsburgh JR C Caleb Parry
- Notre Dame rSO OF Torii Hunter
- North Carolina State SR 3B/SS Ryne Willard
- Louisville SR 1B/3B Dan Rosenbaum
- Miami rJR 1B/OF Chris Barr
- Clemson rSO 3B Glenn Batson
- Clemson rJR OF Maleeke Gibson
- Virginia JR RHP Connor Jones
- Pittsburgh JR RHP TJ Zeuch
- Boston College JR RHP Justin Dunn
- Duke JR RHP Bailey Clark
- Louisville JR RHP Zack Burdi
- North Carolina JR RHP Zac Gallen
- Louisville SR RHP Kyle Funkhouser
- North Carolina JR RHP AJ Bogucki
- Miami JR RHP Bryan Garcia
- North Carolina JR RHP Spencer Trayner
- Clemson SR RHP Clate Schmidt
- Louisville JR LHP Drew Harrington
- Wake Forest JR RHP Parker Dunshee
- Clemson rSO LHP Alex Bostic
- Duke rSO LHP Jim Ziemba
- Boston College JR RHP Mike King
- Wake Forest SR RHP/C Garrett Kelly
- Virginia JR RHP Alec Bettinger
- North Carolina State JR RHP Joe O’Donnell
- North Carolina State JR LHP Ryan Williamson
- Georgia Tech JR RHP/3B Brandon Gold
- Florida State JR LHP Alec Byrd
- Florida State rSO RHP Ed Voyles
- Florida State rSR RHP Tyler Warmoth
- Clemson rSR RHP Patrick Andrews
- Duke rSO RHP Karl Blum
- Georgia Tech JR RHP Matthew Gorst
- North Carolina SO RHP/1B Ryder Ryan
- Miami SR RHP Enrique Sosa
- North Carolina State rSR RHP Kyle Smith
- Miami JR LHP Danny Garcia
- North Carolina rSR RHP Chris McCue
- Virginia Tech JR RHP Aaron McGarity
- North Carolina State JR RHP Cory Wilder
- Virginia rSO RHP Jack Roberts
- North Carolina State rJR RHP Johnny Piedmonte
- Clemson JR LHP Pat Krall
- Boston College SR LHP Jesse Adams
- Duke rSR RHP Brian McAfee
- North Carolina State SR LHP Will Gilbert
- Louisville JR RHP Jake Sparger
- Georgia Tech rSR RHP Cole Pitts
- Georgia Tech JR RHP Zac Ryan
- Boston College SR RHP John Nicklas
- Georgia Tech SR LHP/OF Jonathan King
- Florida State rJR LHP Alex Diese
- Virginia rJR LHP/OF Kevin Doherty
- Pittsburgh SR RHP Aaron Sandefur
- Florida State rSO RHP Andy Ward
- Wake Forest rSO RHP Chris Farish
- North Carolina State rJR RHP Karl Keglovits
- Virginia Tech JR RHP Luke Scherzer
- Virginia Tech rSO RHP Ryan Lauria
- North Carolina State rSR LHP Travis Orwig
- North Carolina JR LHP Zach Rice
- Notre Dame SR RHP David Hearne
- Miami rSO RHP Andy Honiotes
- Florida State rSO RHP Taylor Blatch
- Duke rSR RHP Kellen Urbon
- Clemson rSO RHP Drew Moyer
- Clemson rJR RHP Wales Toney
- Clemson rJR RHP/1B Jackson Campana
- North Carolina State rJR LHP Sean Adler
- Wake Forest JR RHP Connor Johnstone
- Florida State rSR RHP Mike Compton
- Duke rSR LHP Trent Swart
- Louisville SR RHP Anthony Kidston
- Wake Forest JR RHP John McCarren
- Virginia JR RHP Tyler Shambora
- Miami SR LHP Thomas Woodrey
- Virginia Tech rJR LHP Kit Scheetz
- Virginia SR LHP David Rosenberger
- Notre Dame JR RHP Ryan Smoyer
- Virginia JR RHP Holden Grounds
- Notre Dame SR LHP Michael Hearne
- Pittsburgh JR RHP Matt Pidich
- Florida State rSO RHP Will Zirzow
- Duke SR LHP Nick Hendrix
- Notre Dame SR RHP Nick McCarty
- Miami JR RHP Cooper Hammond
- Pittsburgh JR RHP Sam Mersing
- North Carolina State rSO LHP Cody Beckman
- Virginia Tech rSR LHP Jon Woodcock
- Georgia Tech JR LHP Ben Parr
- Wake Forest rSR RHP Aaron Fossas
- North Carolina State rSR RHP Chris Williams
SR LHP Jesse Adams (2016)
SR RHP John Nicklas (2016)
JR RHP Justin Dunn (2016)
JR RHP Mike King (2016)
JR RHP Bobby Skogsbergh (2016)
SR 3B/SS Joe Cronin (2016)
SR OF Logan Hoggarth (2016)
SR C Stephen Sauter (2016)
JR SS/3B Johnny Adams (2016)
JR C Nick Sciortino (2016)
JR OF/RHP Michael Strem (2016)
SO RHP Brian Rapp (2017)
SO RHP/OF Donovan Casey (2017)
SO 2B/3B Jake Palomaki (2017)
FR RHP Jacob Stevens (2017)
FR C Gian Martellini (2018)
High Priority Follows: Jesse Adams, John Nicklas, Justin Dunn, Mike King, Joe Cronin, Johnny Adams, Nick Sciortino, Michael Strem
SR RHP Clate Schmidt (2016)
rSR RHP Patrick Andrews (2016)
rJR RHP Wales Toney (2016)
rJR RHP Garrett Lovorn (2016)
rSO LHP Alex Bostic (2016)
JR LHP Pat Krall (2016)
JR LHP Andrew Towns (2016)
rSO RHP Drew Moyer (2016)
rJR RHP/1B Jackson Campana (2016)
JR C Chris Okey (2016)
JR SS/2B Eli White (2016)
JR 3B/SS Weston Wilson (2016)
rSO OF/1B Reed Rohlman (2016)
rSO 3B Glenn Batson (2016)
rJR OF Maleeke Gibson (2016)
rJR 1B/OF Andrew Cox (2016)
FR LHP Jake Higginbotham (2017)
SO LHP Charlie Barnes (2017)
rFR RHP Alex Eubanks (2017)
SO RHP Paul Campbell (2017)
SO 3B/2B Adam Renwick (2017)
SO OF Chase Pinder (2017)
rFR OF KJ Bryant (2017)
SO SS Grayson Byrd (2017)
SO OF Drew Wharton (2017)
SO C Robert Jolly (2017)
SO C/1B Chris Williams (2017)
FR RHP Ryley Gilliam (2018)
FR RHP Zach Goodman (2018)
FR RHP Graham Lawson (2018)
FR RHP/1B Brooks Crawford (2018)
FR RHP Tom Walker (2018)
FR RHP Andrew Papp (2018)
FR C Jordan Greene (2018)
FR SS/2B Grant Cox (2018)
FR OF Seth Beer (2018)
High Priority Follows: Clate Schmidt, Patrick Andrews, Wales Toney, Alex Bostic, Pat Krall, Drew Moyer, Jackson Campana, Chris Okey, Eli White, Weston Wilson, Reed Rohlman, Glenn Batson, Maleeke Gibson
JR RHP Bailey Clark (2016)
rSO RHP Karl Blum (2016)
rSO LHP Jim Ziemba (2016)
rSR RHP Brian McAfee (2016)
SR LHP Nick Hendrix (2016)
rSR RHP Conner Stevens (2016)
JR LHP Kevin Lewallyn (2016)
rSR LHP Trent Swart (2016)
rSR RHP Kellen Urbon (2016)
rJR OF/1B Jalen Phillips (2016)
JR C Cristian Perez (2016)
SO LHP Chris McGrath (2017)
SO LHP Mitch Stallings (2017)
SO RHP/SS Ryan Day (2017)
SO 3B/RHP Jack Labosky (2017)
SO 1B Justin Bellinger (2017)
SO 3B/SS Max Miller (2017)
SO 2B/OF Peter Zyla (2017)
SO OF Michael Smicicklas (2017)
SO OF Evan Dougherty (2017)
FR RHP Al Pesto (2018)
FR OF Keyston Fuller (2018)
FR OF Kennie Taylor (2018)
FR OF Jimmy Herron (2018)
FR SS Zack Kone (2018)
FR SS Zack Kesterson (2018)
FR OF Griffin Conine (2018)
High Priority Follows: Bailey Clark, Karl Blum, Jim Ziemba, Brian McAfee, Nick Hendrix, Conner Stevens, Trent Swart, Kellen Urbon, Jalen Phillips, Cristian Perez
rSR RHP Mike Compton (2016)
rJR LHP Alex Diese (2016)
rSO RHP Taylor Blatch (2016)
JR LHP Alec Byrd (2016)
rSO RHP Andy Ward (2016)
rSO RHP Ed Voyles (2016)
JR RHP Jim Voyles (2016)
rSO RHP Will Zirzow (2016)
rSR LHP Matt Kinney (2016)
rSR RHP Tyler Warmoth (2016)
JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio (2016)
JR 1B/C Quincy Nieporte (2016)
SR 2B/SS John Sansone (2016)
JR C/OF Gage West (2016)
JR 1B/OF Hank Truluck (2016)
JR SS/2B Matt Henderson (2016)
JR C Bryan Bussey (2016)
FR LHP/OF Tyler Holton (2017)
SO RHP Cobi Johnson (2017)
rFR RHP Andrew Karp (2017)
SO RHP Drew Carlton (2017)
SO OF/RHP Steven Wells (2017)
SO C/1B Darren Miller (2017)
SO SS/3B Dylan Busby (2017)
SO SS/2B Taylor Walls (2017)
FR RHP Cole Sands (2018)
FR LHP Jared Middleton (2018)
FR RHP Chase Haney (2018)
FR RHP Ronnie Ramirez (2018)
FR RHP Dillon Brown (2018)
FR C Caleb Raleigh (2018)
FR C/OF Jackson Lueck (2018)
FR OF Donovan Petrey (2018)
High Priority Follows: Mike Compton, Alex Diese, Taylor Blatch, Alec Byrd, Andy Ward, Ed Voyles, Jim Voyles, Will Zirzow, Matt Kinney, Tyler Warmoth, Ben DeLuzio, Quincy Nieporte, John Sansome, Gage West, Hank Truluck, Matt Henderson
JR LHP Ben Parr (2016)
JR RHP Matthew Gorst (2016)
SR LHP/OF Jonathan King (2016)
JR RHP/3B Brandon Gold (2016)
JR RHP Zac Ryan (2016)
rSR RHP Cole Pitts (2016)
JR LHP Tanner Shelton (2016)
JR RHP Matt Phillips (2016)
SO OF/1B Kel Johnson (2016)
JR OF Keenan Innis (2016)
JR OF Ryan Peurifoy (2016)
JR C Arden Pabst (2016)
JR SS Connor Justus (2016)
SR 3B/SS Matt Gonzalez (2016)
SO RHP Patrick Wiseman (2017)
SO 2B Wade Bailey (2017)
SO 3B/C Trevor Graport (2017)
FR RHP Jonathan Hughes (2018)
FR RHP Tristin English (2018)
FR RHP Bobby Gavreau (2018)
FR RHP Keyton Gibson (2018)
FR RHP Jake Lee (2018)
FR RHP Micah Carpenter (2018)
FR RHP Burton Dulaney (2018)
FR C Joey Bart (2018)
FR OF/1B Brandt Stallings (2018)
FR 2B/SS Carter Hall (2018)
FR 2B/SS Jackson Webb (2018)
High Priority Follows: Ben Parr, Matthew Gorst, Jonathan King, Brandon Gold, Zac Ryan, Cole Pitts, Kel Johnson, Keenan Innis, Ryan Peurifoy, Arden Pabst, Connor Justus, Matt Gonzalez
SR RHP Kyle Funkhouser (2016)
JR RHP Zack Burdi (2016)
JR LHP Drew Harrington (2016)
SR RHP Anthony Kidston (2016)
JR RHP Jake Sparger (2016)
rSR RHP Ryan Smith (2016)
JR RHP Shane Hummel (2016)
JR OF Corey Ray (2016)
rSO 3B/SS Blake Tiberi (2016)
JR 2B/OF Nick Solak (2016)
JR OF Logan Taylor (2016)
JR OF Colin Lyman (2016)
JR C Will Smith (2016)
SR 1B/3B Dan Rosenbaum (2016)
rSO OF/C Ryan Summers (2016)
SO RHP Kade McClure (2017)
SO RHP Lincoln Henzman (2017)
SO RHP Sean Leland (2017)
SO LHP/1B Brendan McKay (2017)
SO C Colby Fitch (2017)
SO SS/2B Devin Hairston (2017)
FR RHP Riley Thompson (2017)
FR RHP Sam Bordner (2018)
FR RHP Bryan Hoeing (2018)
FR RHP Noah Burkholder (2018)
FR LHP Adam Wolf (2018)
FR OF Josh Stowers (2018)
FR INF Devin Mann (2018)
FR OF Chris Botsoe (2018)
FR C Zeke Pinkham (2018)
FR SS Daniel Little (2018)
FR 3B Drew Ellis (2018)
High Priority Follows: Kyle Funkhouser, Zack Burdi, Drew Harrington, Anthony Kidston, Jake Sparger, Corey Ray, Blake Tiberi, Nick Solak, Logan Taylor, Colin Lyman, Will Smith, Dan Rosenbaum, Ryan Summers
SR LHP Thomas Woodrey (2016)
JR RHP Cooper Hammond (2016)
JR RHP Bryan Garcia (2016)
JR LHP Danny Garcia (2016)
SR RHP Enrique Sosa (2016)
rSO RHP Andy Honiotes (2016)
JR C/1B Zack Collins (2016)
JR OF Willie Abreu (2016)
JR OF Jacob Heyward (2016)
SR SS Brandon Lopez (2016)
rJR 1B/OF Chris Barr (2016)
JR 2B/SS Johnny Ruiz (2016)
JR INF Randy Batista (2016)
JR 1B Edgar Michelangeli (2016)
SO LHP Michael Mediavilla (2017)
SO RHP Jesse Lepore (2017)
rFR RHP Keven Pimentel (2017)
rFR RHP Devin Meyer (2017)
rFR LHP Luke Spangler (2017)
SO OF Carl Chester (2017)
FR RHP Andrew Cabezas (2018)
FR RHP Frankie Bartow (2018)
FR 3B Romy Gonzalez (2018)
High Priority Follows: Thomas Woodrey, Cooper Hammond, Bryan Garcia, Danny Garcia, Enrique Sosa, Sandy Honiotes, Zack Collins, Willie Abreu, Jacob Heyward, Brandon Lopez, Chris Barr, Johnny Ruiz
JR RHP AJ Bogucki (2016)
JR RHP Zac Gallen (2016)
JR LHP Zach Rice (2016)
rSR RHP Chris McCue (2016)
JR RHP Spencer Trayner (2016)
SO RHP/1B Ryder Ryan (2016)
JR OF Tyler Ramirez (2016)
JR OF Tyler Lynn (2016)
JR OF Adam Pate (2016)
SR SS/2B Eli Sutherland (2016)
SO RHP JB Bukauskas (2017)
SO RHP Jason Morgan (2017)
SO RHP Hansen Butler (2017)
SO RHP Brett Daniels (2017)
SO LHP/1B Hunter Williams (2017)
SO OF/1B Brian Miller (2017)
SO 3B/SS Zack Gahagan (2017)
SO SS/2B Logan Warmoth (2017)
FR 3B/RHP Kyle Datres (2017)
FR LHP Brendon Little (2018)
RHP Taylor Sugg (2018)
FR RHP Cole Aker (2018)
FR RHP Rodney Hutchison (2018)
FR C/RHP Cody Roberts (2018)
FR C Wyatt Cross (2018)
FR C Brendan Illies (2018)
FR OF Josh Ladowski (2018)
FR SS Utah Jones (2018)
FR OF Brandon Riley (2018)
High Priority Follows: AJ Bogucki, Zac Gallen, Zach Rice, Chris McCue, Spencer Trayner, Ryder Ryan, Tyler Ramirez, Tyler Lynn, Adam Pate, Eli Sutherland
North Carolina State
JR RHP Joe O’Donnell (2016)
rJR LHP Sean Adler (2016)
rJR RHP Johnny Piedmonte (2016)
JR RHP Cory Wilder (2016)
rSR LHP Travis Orwig (2016)
SR LHP Will Gilbert (2016)
rJR RHP Karl Keglovits (2016)
rSR RHP Kyle Smith (2016)
rSR RHP Chris Williams (2016)
rSO LHP Cody Beckman (2016)
JR LHP Ryan Williamson (2016)
JR C/3B Andrew Knizner (2016)
JR 1B/OF Preston Palmeiro (2016)
SR 3B/SS Ryne Willard (2016)
SR C Chance Shepard (2016)
rSO OF Garrett Suggs (2016)
SO LHP Brian Brown (2017)
SO RHP Evan Brabrand (2017)
SO RHP/3B Evan Mendoza (2017)
SO RHP/INF Tommy DeJuneas (2017)
rFR OF Storm Edwards (2017)
SO OF Josh McLain (2017)
SO 3B/SS Joe Dunand (2017)
SO 2B Stephen Pitarra (2017)
SO OF Brock Deatherage (2017)
SO OF Shane Shepard (2017)
FR SS/OF Xavier LeGrant (2018)
High Priority Follows: Joe O’Donnell, Sean Adler, Johnny Piedmonte, Cory Wilder, Travis Orwig, Will Gilbert, Karl Keglovits, Kyle Smith, Chris Williams, Cody Beckman, Ryan Williamson, Andrew Knizner, Preston Palmeiro, Ryne Willard, Chance Shepard,
SR RHP Nick McCarty (2016)
SR RHP David Hearne (2016)
SR LHP Michael Hearne (2016)
JR RHP Ryan Smoyer (2016)
JR LHP Jim Orwick (2016)
JR LHP Scott Tully (2016)
SR RHP Connor Hale (2016)
SR OF/LHP Zac Kutsulis (2016)
JR 2B/3B Cavan Biggio (2016)
JR 2B/SS Kyle Fiala (2016)
SR SS Lane Richards (2016)
JR C Ryan Lidge (2016)
rSO OF Torii Hunter (2016)
SR C/OF Ricky Sanchez (2016)
SO RHP Brad Bass (2017)
SO LHP Sean Guenther (2017)
SO RHP Brandon Bielak (2017)
SO RHP Peter Solomon (2017)
SO RHP Evy Ruibal (2017)
SO OF Jake Johnson (2017)
FR RHP Connor Hock (2018)
FR RHP Chris Connolly (2018)
FR OF/RHP Matt Vierling (2018)
FR 3B Jake Singer (2018)
FR OF Connor Stutts (2018)
High Priority Follows: Nick McCarty, David Hearne, Michael Hearne, Ryan Smoyer, Scott Tully, Zac Kutsulis, Cavan Biggio, Kyle Fiala, Lane Richards, Ryan Lidge, Torii Hunter, Ricky Sanchez
JR RHP TJ Zeuch (2016)
SR RHP Aaron Sandefur (2016)
JR RHP Sam Mersing (2016)
rSO LHP Josh Mitchell (2016)
JR RHP Matt Pidich (2016)
SR OF/LHP Aaron Schnurbusch (2016)
SR C Alex Kowalczyk (2016)
rJR OF Jacob Wright (2016)
JR INF Ron Sherman (2016)
JR OF Nick Yarnall (2016)
JR C Caleb Parry (2016)
JR C Manny Pazos (2016)
rSO OF Frank Maldonado (2016)
SO RHP Isaac Mattson (2017)
SO 3B/SS Charles LeBlanc (2017)
FR LHP Clayton Morrell (2018)
FR RHP Derek West (2018)
FR OF Yasin Chentouf (2018)
High Priority Follows: TJ Zeuch, Aaron Sandefur, Sam Mersing, Matt Pidich, Aaron Schnurbusch, Alex Kowalczyk, Jacob Wright, Ron Sherman, Nick Yarnall, Caleb Parry, Frank Maldonado
JR RHP Connor Jones (2016)
JR RHP Alec Bettinger (2016)
rSO RHP Jack Roberts (2016)
SR LHP David Rosenberger (2016)
JR RHP Tyler Shambora (2016)
JR RHP Holden Grounds (2016)
rJR LHP/OF Kevin Doherty (2016)
JR C Matt Thaiss (2016)
SR C Robbie Coman (2016)
JR SS/3B Daniel Pinero (2016)
SO RHP Tommy Doyle (2017)
SO RHP Derek Casey (2017)
SO LHP Bennett Sousa (2017)
SO OF/LHP Adam Haseley (2017)
SO 3B Charlie Cody (2017)
SO 2B/OF Ernie Clement (2017)
SO 2B Jack Gerstenmaier (2017)
SO C/2B Justin Novak (2017)
SO 1B/RHP Pavin Smith (2017)
FR OF Doak Dozier (2017)
FR RHP Evan Sperling (2018)
FR LHP Daniel Lynch (2018)
FR LHP Connor Eason (2018)
FR RHP Grant Sloan (2018):
FR OF/RHP Cameron Simmons (2018)
FR 3B Ryan Karstetter (2018)
FR 2B/SS Andy Weber (2018)
FR 3B/1B Nate Eikhoff (2018)
FR OF Jake McCarthy (2018)
FR INF Jon Meola (2018)
High Priority Follows: Connor Jones, Alec Bettinger, Jack Roberts, David Rosenberger, Tyler Shambora, Holden Grounds, Kevin Doherty, Matt Thaiss, Robbie Coman, Daniel Pinero
rJR LHP Kit Scheetz (2016)
rSR LHP Jon Woodcock (2016)
JR RHP Aaron McGarity (2016)
JR RHP Luke Scherzer (2016)
rSO RHP Ryan Lauria (2016)
rJR 1B/LHP Phil Sciretta (2016)
rJR OF Saige Jenco (2016)
rSR OF Logan Bible (2016)
JR OF Mac Caples (2016)
JR 3B/SS Ryan Tufts (2016)
SR C Andrew Mogg (2016)
rSO OF Nick Anderson (2016)
rSO OF/LHP Tom Stoffel (2016)
SO LHP Packy Naughton (2017)
SO OF/3B Max Ponzurik (2017)
SO C Joe Freiday (2017)
FR RHP Nic Enright (2018)
FR RHP Culver Hughes (2018)
FR RHP Cole Kragel (2018)
FR RHP Payton Holdsworth (2018)
FR LHP/1B Patrick Hall (2018)
FR RHP Tim Salvadore (2018)
FR OF/1B Stevie Mangrum (2018)
FR C/OF Stephen Polansky (2018)
High Priority Follows: Kit Scheetz, Jon Woodcock, Aaron McGarity, Luke Scherzer, Ryan Lauria, Phil Sciretta, Saige Jenco, Mac Caples, Ryan Tufts, Nick Anderson
SR RHP/C Garrett Kelly (2016)
rSR RHP Aaron Fossas (2016)
JR RHP Parker Dunshee (2016)
rSO RHP Chris Farish (2016)
JR RHP Connor Johnstone (2016)
JR RHP John McCarren (2016)
rSO RHP Parker Johnson (2016)
JR 1B/RHP Will Craig (2016)
JR C Ben Breazeale (2016)
SR OF/2B Joey Rodriguez (2016)
JR 2B/OF Nate Mondou (2016)
rSR OF Kevin Conway (2016)
JR OF Jonathan Pryor (2016)
SO RHP Drew Loepprich (2017)
SO RHP Donnie Sellers (2016)
SO OF Stuart Fairchild (2017)
SO 1B Gavin Sheets (2017)
SO OF Keegan Maronpot (2017)
SO SS/2B Drew Freedman (2017)
SO SS/2B Bruce Steel (2017)
FR LHP Tyler Witt (2018)
FR RHP Griffin Roberts (2018)
FR RHP Rayne Supple (2018)
FR 3B/SS John Aiello (2018)
High Priority Follows: Garrett Kelly, Aaron Fossas, Parker Dunshee, Chris Farish, Connor Johnstone, John McCarren, Parker Johnson, Will Craig, Ben Breazeale, Joey Rodriguez, Nate Mondou, Kevin Conway, Jonathan Pryor
EDIT: Sellers is a 2016 draft-eligible sophomore. Fastball up to 95 with a solid slider. He’ll be included on future lists.
2016 MLB Draft Preview – College Prospects
I don’t typically get into rankings this early in the process because doing it the right way as a research/writing staff of one takes me literally hundreds of hours. Realistically putting together what I feel is representative of my better stuff just hasn’t been possible in the past unless I pushed other micro baseball projects — for the site and elsewhere — aside and instead looked took the time to cover a nation’s worth of prospects on the macro level. Having a draft site that spends more time on players on the fringes who may or may not wind up drafted at all while failing to address the prospects at the top of the food chain seems a bit silly, so I’m trying to balance things out a little bit better this year. There will still be lots of the usual draft minutiae I enjoy so much, but a rededicated focus on the draft’s first day just makes sense. With all of this in mind I put other baseball duties on hold for the last ten or so days to put this list together. It’s imperfect, but I like it as a starting point. Some notes on what you’ll see below…
*** I didn’t include any non-D1 players at this point because I haven’t yet had the time to go as deep into other levels of competition and junior college ball just yet. Nick Shumpert would have made the top fifty for sure. Lucas Erceg likely would have been considered. After a quick skim of my notes, I’d say Kep Brown, Tekwaan Whyte, Ryan January, Ethan Skender, Liam Scafariello, Jesus Gamez, Curtis Taylor, Willie Rios, Shane Billings, Brett Morales, Hunter Tackett, Devin Smeltzer, and Tyson Miller would be just a few of the names also in the mix for me right now. I said it a lot last year, but it bears repeating: I’d love to find the time/energy to go deeper with non-D1 baseball this year. The finite number of hours I have to devote to this site might get in the way, but I’m going to try.
*** This is going to sound bad and I apologize in advance, but I don’t believe I left anybody off that I intended to include. It’s possible, of course, but I don’t think that’s the case here. A ton of really, really good prospects, many of whom will be future big league players, didn’t make the cut as of yet. It’s not personal, obviously. I would have loved to include any player that even remotely interested me, but I had to have a cut-off point somewhere. If you think I whiffed on somebody, I’m happy to listen. Reasonable minds can disagree.
*** There is no consensus top player in this college class. The hitter at the top could wind up out of the first round by June. The top pitcher listed has medical red flags reminiscent of Michael Matuella last season. And — SPOILER ALERT — the top overall player in this class isn’t included on the list below. There are players ranked in the twenties that may be in your top five and there are players in the thirties that may not crack somebody else’s top seventy-five. It’s a fun year that way.
*** If I had to predict what player will actually go number one this June, I’d piggy-back on what others have already said and put my vote in for AJ Puk. The Phillies are my hometown team and while I’m not as well-connected to their thinking as I am with a few other teams, based on the snippets of behind the scenes things I’ve heard (not much considering it’s October, but it’s not like they aren’t thinking about it yet) and the common sense reporting elsewhere (they lean towards a quick-moving college player, preferably a pitcher) all point to Puk. He’s healthy, a good kid (harmless crane climbing incident aside), and a starting pitcher all the way. Puk joining Alfaro, Knapp, Crawford, Franco, Williams, Quinn, Herrera, Altherr, Nola, Thompson, Eickhoff, Eflin, and Giles by September 2017 makes for a pretty intriguing cost-controlled core.
*** The words that go along with the rankings are a bit more positive than what long-time readers might be used to. My early take is that this appears to be an above-average draft, but a friend who saw an early draft (no pun intended) of this told me that 2016 must be an incredibly talented group of amateurs. He said that reading through led him to believe that every pitcher is a future big league starter and every hitter is a future above-average regular. Guilty. I admit that I generally skew positive at this site (elsewhere…not so much) because I like baseball, enjoy focusing on what young players do well, and believe highlighting the good can help grow the college game, but being fair is always the ultimate goal. That said, there will be plenty of time to get deeper into each prospect’s individual strengths and weaknesses over the next seven or so months. In October a little extra dose of positivity is nice.
With no further ado, here are the 2016 MLB Draft’s top fifty prospects (with a whole lot more names to know beyond that)…
(Fine, just a bit more ado: A very rough HS list and maybe a combined overall ranking will come after Jupiter…)
- Mercer JR OF Kyle Lewis
The popular comp for Lewis has been Alfonso Soriano (originated at D1 Baseball, I believe), but I see more of Yasiel Puig in his game. He’s an honest five-tool player with a rapidly improving approach at the plate. There’s still some roughness around the edges there, but if it clicks then he’s a monster. There’s obvious risk in the profile, but it’s easy to be excited by somebody who legitimately gets better with every watch.
- Oklahoma JR RHP Alec Hansen
Hansen would rank first overall (college, not overall) if not for some recent reports of forearm troubles. His injury history probably should have been enough to temper enthusiasm for his nasty stuff (huge FB and chance for two plus offspeed pitches), but the upside is just that exciting. The popular Gerrit Cole makes sense as Hansen is a big guy (6-7, 235) with outstanding athleticism who holds his plus velocity late into games.
- Florida JR OF Buddy Reed
Reed’s relative newness to playing the game full-time makes his already considerable upside all the more intriguing. More reps against quality pitching could turn the dynamic center fielder (plus range, plus speed, plus arm) into the top overall pick.
- Oregon rSO LHP Matt Krook
This may be a touch more speculative that some of the other names on the list since Krook missed the 2015 season after Tommy John surgery, but I’m buying all the Krook shares I can right now. He came back and impressed on the Cape enough to warrant consideration as a potential 1-1 riser. There’s no squaring up his fastball and there’s more than enough offspeed (CB and CU) to miss bats (12 K/9 in 45 freshman innings). He’s not as physical as AJ Puk, but the more advanced secondaries give him the edge for now.
- Florida JR LHP/1B AJ Puk
Extension, deception, and power would be three words that come immediately to mind when describing Puk. He’s every bit of 6-7, 225 with a delivery that hides the ball damn well. His power comes both with his left arm (92-96, 98 peak) and at the plate (he’d quickly be among the better hitting pitchers in the game), so it’s no big shock that some guy on the internet (that’s me) sees some similarities between him and the prospect version of Madison Bumgarner.
- Wake Forest JR 1B/RHP Will Craig
Do you like power? How about patience? What about a guy with power, patience, and the athleticism to pull off collegiate two-way duty? For everybody who missed on AJ Reed the first time around, Will Craig is here to give you a second chance. I won’t say he’ll be the first base prospect that finally tests how high a first base prospect can go in a post-PED draft landscape, but if he has a big enough junior season…
- Louisville JR OF Corey Ray
If you prefer Ray to Lewis and Reed, you’re not wrong. They are all different flavors of a similar overall quality. Like those guys, Ray can do enough of everything well on the diamond to earn the much coveted label of “five-tool player.” The most enthusiastic comp I got from him was a “more compact Kirk Gibson.” That’s a thinker.
- Arkansas JR RHP Zach Jackson
We’ll know a lot more about Buddy Reed (and other SEC hitters) by June after he runs the gauntlet of SEC pitching. In addition to teammate AJ Puk, I’ve got three other SEC arms with realistic top ten draft hopes. Jackson’s chance for rising up to the 1-1 discussion depends almost entirely on his delivery and command. If those two things can be smoothed out this spring — they often go hand-in-hand — then his fastball (90-94, 96 peak), curve (deadly), and change (inconsistent but very promising) make him a potential top of the rotation starting pitcher.
- Georgia JR RHP Robert Tyler
Just about everything said about Jackson can be said about Tyler. The Georgia righthander has the bigger fastball (90-96, 100 peak) and his two offspeed pitches are flip-flopped (love the change, still tinkering with his spike curve), so getting his delivery worked out enough to convince onlookers that he can hold up over 30 plus starts a year could make him the first college arm off the board.
- Mississippi State JR RHP Dakota Hudson
Hudson is the biggest mystery man out of the SEC Four Horsemen (TM pending…with apologies to all the Vandy guys and Kyle Serrano) because buying on him is buying a largely untested college reliever (so far) with control red flags and a limited overall track record. Those are all fair reasons to doubt him right now, but when Hudson has it working there are few pitchers who look more dominant. His easy plus 86-92 cut-slider is right up there with Jackson’s curve as one of the best breaking balls in the entire class.
- Tennessee JR 2B/3B Nick Senzel
Arguably the safest of this year’s potential first round college bats, Senzel has electric bat speed, a patient approach, and as good a hit tool as any player listed. His defensive gifts are almost on that same level and his power upside separates him from the rest of what looks like a pretty intriguing overall college group of second basemen.
- Notre Dame JR 2B/3B Cavan Biggio
Without having seen every Notre Dame game the past two years — I’m good, but not that good — one might be confused as to how a player with Biggio’s pedigree and collection of scouting accolades (“line drive machine; born to hit; great pitch recognition; great approach, patient and aggressive all at once”…and that’s just what has been written here) could hit .250ish through two college seasons. I say we all agree to chalk it up to bad BABIP luck and eagerly anticipate a monster junior season that puts him squarely back in the first round mix where he belongs.
- Nebraska JR OF Ryan Boldt
World Wide Wes said it best: “You can’t chase the night.” Of course that doesn’t stop me from trying to chase missed players from previous draft classes. Nobody was talking about Andrew Benintendi last year at this time — in part because of the confusion that comes with draft-eligible true sophomores, but still — so attempting to get a head-start on the “next Benintendi” seems like a thing to do. As a well-rounded center fielder with a sweet swing and impressive plate coverage, Boldt could be that guy.
- Vanderbilt JR OF/1B Bryan Reynolds
CTRL C “Ryan Boldt paragraph”, CTRL V “Ryan Boldt paragraph.” Reynolds also reminds me somewhat of Kyle Lewis in the way that both guys have rapidly improved their plate discipline in ways that haven’t yet shown up consistently on the stat sheet. If or when it does, Reynolds could join Lewis as a potential future impact big league outfielder.
- Virginia JR RHP Connor Jones
Jones, the number one guy on a list designed to serve the same purpose as the one created over seven months ago, hasn’t actually done anything to slip this far down the board; competition at the top this year is just that fierce. I like guys with fastballs that move every which way but straight, so Jones’s future looks bright from here. His mid-80s splitter has looked so good at times that he’s gotten one of my all-time favorite cross-culture comps: Masahiro Tanaka.
- Stanford JR RHP Cal Quantrill
A case could be made that Quantrill is the most complete, pro-ready college arm in this year’s class. The fact that one could make that claim even after losing almost an entire season of development speaks to the kind of mature talent we’re talking about. Pitchability is a nebulous thing that isn’t easy to pin down, but you know it when you see it. Quantrill has it. He also has a plus changeup and a fastball with serious giddy-up.
- Virginia JR C Matt Thaiss
Comps aren’t everybody’s cup of tea, but I’ve always defended them because they provide the needed frame of reference for prospects to gain some modicum of public recognition and leap past the indignity of being known only as soulless, nameless abstract ideas on a page until they have the good fortune of reaching the big leagues. Matt Thaiss played HS ball not too far off from where I live, so I saw him a few times before he packed things up and headed south to Virginia. I never could find the words to describe him just right to friends who were curious as to why I’d drive over an hour after work to see a random high school hitter. It wasn’t until Baseball America dropped a Brian McCann comp on him that they began to understand. You can talk about his power upside, mature approach, and playable defense all you want, but there’s something extra that crystallizes in your mind when a player everybody knows enters the conversation. Nobody with any sense expects Thaiss to have a carbon copy of McCann’s excellent professional career, but the comp gives you some general idea of what style of player is being discussed.
- Clemson JR C Chris Okey
Okey doesn’t have quite the same thunder in his bat as Thaiss, but his strong hands, agile movements behind the plate, and average or better arm give him enough ammo to be in the mix for first college catching off the board. The days of the big, strong-armed, plus power, and questionable contact catcher seem to be dwindling as more and more teams appear willing to go back to placing athleticism atop their list of desired attributes for young catching prospects. Hard to say that’s wrong based on where today’s speed and defense style of game looks like it’s heading.
- California JR RHP Daulton Jefferies
To have Jefferies, maybe my favorite draft-eligible college pitcher to watch, this low says way more about the quality at the top of this year’s class then his long-term pro ability. Jefferies brings three potential above-average to plus pitches to the mound on any given night. I like the D1 Baseball comparison to Walker Buehler, last year’s 24th overall pick. Getting Jefferies in a similar spot this year would be something to be excited about.
- LSU JR OF Jake Fraley
In a class with potential superstars like Lewis, Reed, and Ray roaming outfields at the top, it would be easy to overlook Fraley, a tooled-up center fielder with lightning in his wrists, an unusually balanced swing, and the patient approach of a future leadoff hitter. Do so at your own discretion. Since I started the site in 2009 there’s been at least one LSU outfielder drafted every year. That includes five top-three round picks (Mitchell, Landry, Mahtook, Jones, and Stevenson) in seven classes. Outfielder U seems poised to keep the overall streak alive and make the top three round run a cool six out of eight in 2016.
- Vanderbilt rSO RHP Jordan Sheffield
It’s a lazy comp, sure, but the possibility that Sheffield could wind up as this year’s Dillon Tate has stuck with me for almost a full calendar year. He’s undersized yet athletic and well-built enough to handle a starter’s workload, plus he has the three pitches (FB, CU, CB) to get past lineups multiple times. If his two average-ish offspeed that flash above-average to plus can more consistently get there, he’s a potential top ten guy no matter his height.
- Wright State JR C Sean Murphy
Watching Murphy do his thing behind the plate is worth the price of admission alone. We’re talking “Queen Bee” level arm strength, ample lateral quicks on balls in the dirt, and dependable hands with an ever-improving ability to frame borderline pitches. He’s second in the class behind Jake Rogers defensively — not just as a catcher, but arguably at any position — but with enough bat (unlike Rogers) to project as a potential above-average all-around regular in time. I expect the battle for top college catching prospect to be closely contested all year with Thaiss, Okey, and Murphy all taking turns atop team-specific draft boards all spring long.
- Texas A&M JR OF Nick Banks
If you’ve ever wondered what the right field prototype looked liked, take a gander at the star outfielder in College Station. The combination of speed, strength, power, and one of the country’s most accurate and formidable outfield arms make taking the chance on him continuing to figure things out as a hitter well worth a potential first round pick.
- Tennessee JR RHP Kyle Serrano
Serrano is the second guy on this list that reminds me of Walker Buehler from last year, though I still like my own Jarrod Parker comp best. He’s transitioned into more of a sinker/slider pitcher as he’s refined his breaking ball and lost some feel for his change over the years, but as a firm believer in the idea that once you have a skill you own it forever I remain intrigued as to how good he could be once he learns to effectively harness his changeup once again.
- Kentucky JR 2B/OF JaVon Shelby
In yet another weird example of an odd comp that I haven’t been able to shake all year, there’s something about JaVon Shelby’s game that takes me back to watching Ian Happ at Cincinnati. Maybe the offensive game isn’t as far along at similar developmental points, but Shelby’s odds at sticking in the dirt have always been higher.
- Miami JR 1B/C Zack Collins
If I had more confidence that Collins could play regularly behind the plate at the highest level, he’s shoot up the board ten spots (minimum) in a hurry. He’s a fastball-hunting power-hitting force of nature at the plate with the potential for the kind of prodigious home run blasts that make Twitter lose control of its collective mind. I stand by the Travis Hafner ceiling comp from last December.
- Arizona JR 3B Bobby Dalbec
The good popular comp here is Troy Glaus. The less good comp that I’ve heard is Chris Dominguez. The truth, as it so often does, will likely fall in the middle somewhere.
- Georgia JR OF Stephen Wrenn
Wrenn is a burner who has looked good enough in center field at times that you wonder if he could handle all three outfield spots by himself at the same time. He’s an athletic outfielder who remains raw at the plate despite two years of regular playing time — making him seemingly one of forty-five of the type in this year’s top fifty — so you’re gambling on skills catching up to the tools. The fact that his glove alone will get him to the big leagues mitigates some of the risk with his bat.
- Winthrop JR LHP Matt Crohan
Premium fastball velocity from the left side is always a welcomed sight. Crohan can get it up to the upper-90s (sits 90-94) with a pair of worthwhile offspeed pitches (mid-80s cut-slider and a slowly improving change). He’s got the size, command, and smarts to pitch in a big league rotation for a long time.
- Louisville SR RHP Kyle Funkhouser
Much electronic ink was spilled on Funkhouser last season, so I’ll be brief: he’s good. It’s unclear how good — I’d say more mid-rotation than ace, but reasonable minds may disagree — but he’s good. Of the many comps I threw out for him last year my favorite remains Jordan Zimmermann. If he can up his command and control game like Zimmermann, then he could hit that mid-rotation ceiling and keep pushing upwards.
- Louisville JR RHP Zack Burdi
Of all the rankings outside of the top ten, this is the one that could make me look dumbest by June. Burdi is a really tough evaluation for him right now because even after multiple years of being on the prospect stage it’s unclear (to me, at least) what role will eventually lead to him maximizing his ability. I’m reticent to throw him in the bullpen right away — many do this because of his last name, I think — because he’s shown the kind of diversity of stuff to stay in a rotation. Whether or not he has the command or consistency remain to be seen. Still, those concerns aren’t all that concerning when your fallback plan means getting to go full-tilt in the bullpen as you unleash a triple-digit fastball on hitters also guarding against two impressive offspeed pitches (CU, SL). It’s almost a win-win for scouting directors at this point. If he has a great spring, then you can believe him in as a starter long-term and grade him accordingly. If there’s still doubt, then you can drop him some but keep a close eye on his slip while being ready to pounce if he falls outside of those first few “don’t screw up or you’re fired” picks. You don’t want to spend a premium pick on a potential reliever, clearly, but if he falls outside of the top twenty picks or so then all of a sudden that backup bullpen plan is good enough to return value on your investment.
- Samford JR OF Heath Quinn
Just what this class needed: another outfielder loaded with tools that comes with some question marks about the utility of his big-time power because he’s still learning how to hit against serious pitching.
- Miami JR OF Willie Abreu
Nick Banks gets a lot of deserved attention for being a potential early first round pick — somebody even once called him the “right field prototype,” if you can believe it — but Willie Abreu’s tool set is on the same shelf. There’s power, mobility, arm strength, and athleticism to profile as a damn fine regular if it all clicks.
- TCU rJR RHP Mitchell Traver
Traver was featured plenty on this site last year as a redshirt-sophomore, so that gives me the chance to rehash the three fun comps I’ve gotten for him over the years: Gil Meche, Nick Masset, and Dustin McGowan. Based on years of doing this — so, entirely anecdotal evidence and not hard data — I’ve found that bigger pitchers (say, 6-6 or taller) have an equal (if not higher) bust rate when compared to the smaller guys (6-0ish) that are typically associated with being higher risk. There are always exceptions and years of scouting biases has created a flawed sample to choose from, but pitching seems like a chore best done for smaller bodies that are easier to consistently contort into the kind of unnatural throwing motions needed to withstand chucking balls 90+ MPH over and over and over again. Maintaining body control, tempo, and command at a certain size can be done, but it sure as heck isn’t easy. Like almost everybody, I see a big pitcher and get excited because with size also often comes velocity, extension, and the intangible intimidation factor. Maybe it’s time to start balancing that excitement with some of the known risks that come with oversized pitchers.
- Maryland JR RHP Mike Shawaryn
A long draft season could change this, but Shawaryn looks all the world to be a rock solid bet to wind up a mid-rotation big league starting pitcher. Never a star, but consistently useful for years going forward.
- Louisiana JR RHP Reagan Bazar
Bazar is one of the bigger gambles to grace this list. He hasn’t done enough yet at Louisiana to warrant such a placement, but when he’s feeling it his stuff (mid- to upper-90s FB, promising low-80s SL) can suffocate even good hitting. Yes, I realize ranking the 6-7, 250+ pound righthander this high undermines a lot of what I said directly above. I’ll always be a sucker for big velocity and Bazar hitting 100+ certainly qualifies.
- Rice rSO RHP Jon Duplantier
Athleticism, projection, and wildness currently define Duplantier as a prospect. Key elements or not, those facets of his game shouldn’t obfuscate how strong his big league starter stuff is. That’s a mixed bag of qualities, but there’s clearly more good than bad when it comes to his future.
- San Diego SO 2B/SS Bryson Brigman
Middle infielders are always a need for big league clubs, so it only makes sense that the better ones at the amateur level get pushed up ahead of where you might want to first slot them in when simply breaking down tools. The extra credit for Brigman’s smooth fielding action is deserved, as is the acclaim he gets for his mature approach and sneaky pop.
- Vanderbilt JR LHP John Kilichowski
Vanderbilt pumps out so much quality pitching that it’s almost boring to discuss their latest and greatest. Kilichowski (and Sheffield and Bowden and Stone) find themselves sandwiched between last year’s special group of arms and a freshman class that includes Donny Everett and Chandler Day. The big lefty has impeccable control, easy velocity (86-92, 94 peak), and the exact assortment of offspeed pitches (CB, SL, and CU, all average or better) needed to keep hitters off-balance in any count. It’s not ace-type stuff, but it’s the kind of overall package that can do damage in the middle of a rotation for a long time.
- Oklahoma State JR LHP Garrett Williams
The scene on Friday night for the Hansen/Williams matchup is going to be something special for college ball. Scouts in attendance will likewise be pretty pleased that they can do some one-stop shopping for not only a potential 1-1 guy in Hansen but also a real threat to wind up in the first round in Williams. Continued maturation of Williams’s curve (a weapon already), change (getting there), and control (work in progress) could get him there.
- Nevada JR OF/LHP Trenton Brooks
Brooks is a two-way athlete good enough to play center field or keep progressing as a lefthanded reliever with a plus approach and an all-out style of play. How can you not like a guy like that?
- Coastal Carolina JR SS/2B Michael Paez
Our first college shortstop, finally. Paez hasn’t yet gotten a lot of national prospect love that I know of, but he’s deserving. He can hit, run, and sneak the occasional ball over the fence all while being steady enough in the field that I don’t know why you’d have to move him off of shortstop. I wouldn’t quite call it a comp, but my appreciate for Paez resembles what I felt about Blake Trahan in last year’s draft.
- Oklahoma JR 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse
Neuse could still fulfill the promise many (myself included) saw in him during his excellent freshman season back when he looked like a potential Gold Glove defender at third with the kind of bat you’d happily stick in the middle of the order. He could also get more of a look this spring on the mound where he can properly put his mid-90s heat and promising pair of secondary offerings (SL, CU) to use. Or he could have something of a repeat of his 2015 season leaving us unsure how good he really is and thinking of him more of a second to fifth round project (a super talented one, mind you) than a first round prospect.
- Wake Forest JR 2B/OF Nate Mondou
Second basemen with power, feel for hitting, and an idea at the plate are damn useful players. The comp I got a few weeks ago on Mondou is about as topical as it gets: Daniel Murphy.
- Kent State JR LHP Eric Lauer
I loved Andrew Chafin as a prospect. Everybody who has been around the Kent State program for a while that I’ve talked to agree that Lauer is better. I can see it: he’s more athletic, has better fastball command, and comes with a cleaner medical history.
- Florida JR 1B Pete Alonso
The Gators have so much talent that it’s inevitable that even a top guy or three can lay claim to getting overlooked by the national media. Alonso, with plus bat speed and power to match, is that guy for me. The burgeoning plate discipline is the cherry on top. I’m not in the national media, but maybe I’ll look back and see how I overlooked him as he rises up boards next spring.
- Duke JR RHP Bailey Clark
Poised for a big potential rise in 2016, Clark has the kind of stuff that blows you away on his best days and leaves you wanting more on his not so best days. I think he puts it all together this year and makes this ranking look foolish by June.
- Louisville JR 2B/OF Nick Solak
The day you find me unwilling to champion a natural born hitter with a preternatural sense of the strike zone is the day I hang up the keyboard. Solak is a tough guy to project because so much of his value is tied up in his bat, but if he build on an already impressive first two seasons at Louisville in 2016 then he might just hit his way into the draft’s top two rounds.
- Ohio State JR OF Ronnie Dawson
You could say this about almost any of this year’s upper-echelon of college outfielders, but I saved it specifically for Ronnie Dawson: he’s a big-time prospect from the minute you spot him getting off the bus. He looks more like a baseball destroying cyborg sent from the past to right the wrongs of his fallen brothers who fell victim to offspeed pitches and high fastballs on the regular. Few of his peers can quite match him when it comes to his athleticism, hand-eye coordination, and sheer physical strength. As a member of this year’s college outfield class, however, he’s not immune from having to deal with the open question as to whether or not he can curb his overly aggressive approach at the plate enough to best utilize his raw talents.
- Kentucky SR RHP Kyle Cody
As an outsider with no knowledge of how Cody’s negotiations with Minnesota actually went down, I’m still surprised that a fair deal for both sides couldn’t be reached last summer. The big righthander (here we go again…) is what we thought he was: big, righthanded, erratic with his command, and an absolute handful for the opposition when his three pitches (mid-90s FB, average 76-82 kCB that flashes plus, hard CU with average upside) are working. There are no real surprises left in his amateur development, so the leap to the pro game seemed inevitable. Maybe he’s got a trick or two up his sleeve yet…
Best of the rest position players…
- Austin Peay JR SS/3B Logan Gray
- College of Charleston JR OF/SS Bradley Jones
- Oklahoma State JR OF Ryan Sluder
- Ohio State JR OF Troy Montgomery
- Virginia JR SS/3B Daniel Pinero
- Vanderbilt SO 3B/SS Will Toffey
- Auburn JR OF Anfernee Grier
- Tulane JR SS Stephen Alemais
- NC State JR C/3B Andrew Knizner
- Pacific SR OF Giovanni Brusa
- Hawaii JR 2B Josh Rojas
- Wisconsin-Milwaukee rJR SS/3B Eric Solberg
- Murray State JR C Tyler Lawrence
- Miami JR OF Jacob Heyward
- Louisville rSO 3B/SS Blake Tiberi
- Florida State JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio
- Illinois SR C Jason Goldstein
- Texas JR C Tres Barrera
- Oregon State JR SS Trevor Morrison
- Missouri JR SS/3B Ryan Howard
- Mississippi State rSO OF Brent Rooker
- Stony Brook JR OF Toby Handley
- Virginia Commonwealth JR OF/2B Logan Farrar
- Belmont JR SS Tyler Walsh
- Southern Mississippi SR 1B Tim Lynch
- Old Dominion JR SS/OF Nick Walker
- Maryland JR C/1B Nick Cieri
- Coastal Carolina SO OF Dalton Ewing
- St. John’s JR OF Michael Donadio
- Stanford JR SS/2B Tommy Edman
- Arizona State JR SS/2B Colby Woodmansee
- Tulane JR C Jake Rogers
- Texas A&M JR 2B/OF Ryne Birk
- Mercer JR C Charlie Madden
- Saint Louis SR 3B Braxton Martinez
- UC Santa Barbara rJR OF Andrew Calica
- South Alabama rJR OF/LHP Cole Billingsley
- USC JR C/1B Jeremy Martinez
- Texas State JR OF/1B Granger Studdard
- Bradley JR 3B Spencer Gaa
- Long Beach State JR SS/2B Garrett Hampson
- Gonzaga SR 1B/RHP Taylor Jones
- NC State JR 1B Preston Palmeiro
- Mississippi State rJR OF Jacob Robson
- Jacksonville JR OF Austin Hays
- Louisiana Tech rSR SS/2B Taylor Love
- Oral Roberts JR C Brent Williams
- Southeast Missouri State JR OF Dan Holst
- Dallas Baptist SR OF Daniel Sweet
- St. John’s SR OF Alex Caruso
Best of the rest pitchers…
- Vanderbilt JR LHP Ben Bowden
- Central Michigan JR LHP/1B Nick Deeg
- Auburn JR RHP/1B Keegan Thompson
- Georgia JR LHP Connor Jones
- Illinois JR RHP Cody Sedlock
- Florida JR RHP Logan Shore
- Florida JR RHP Dane Dunning
- Florida JR RHP Shaun Anderson
- Sacred Heart JR RHP Jason Foley
- Michigan JR LHP/1B Carmen Beneditti
- Air Force JR LHP Jacob DeVries
- St. Mary’s JR RHP Corbin Burnes
- Albany JR RHP Stephen Woods
- Indiana rJR RHP Jake Kelzer
- Oregon JR RHP Stephen Nogosek
- Connecticut JR LHP Anthony Kay
- Oregon rJR LHP Cole Irvin
- Mississippi State JR LHP Daniel Brown
- Liberty JR RHP/OF Parker Bean
- Pacific JR RHP Vince Arobio
- Pittsburgh JR RHP TJ Zeuch
- Loyola Marymount JR RHP JD Busfield
- Washington State JR RHP Ian Hamilton
- Michigan State rJR LHP Cameron Vieaux
- Michigan JR LHP Brett Adcock
- Gonzaga JR RHP Brandon Bailey
- South Carolina JR RHP Wil Crowe
2016 MLB Draft Preview – College Prospects
Click here for an UPDATED LIST (October 23, 2015) if you’re into that sort of thing…
The 2013 HS class was a really good one, so it’s no shock that the 2016 college group has a chance to be so exciting. One mostly clueless guy ranked the following unsigned 2013 HS prospects in his top 100 overall prospects that year: Kyle Serrano (20), Matt Krook (35), Chris Okey (39), Ryan Boldt (41), Cavan Biggio (42), Andy McGuire (52), Connor Jones (53), Brett Morales (58), Robert Tyler (68), Keegan Thompson (69), Cal Quantrill (70), Garrett Williams (73), Zack Collins (80), JB Woodman (89), Sheldon Neuse (92), Jordan Sheffield (93), and Connor Heady (96). Phil Bickford (34) and Francis Christy (100), both eligible for this year’s draft due to their decision to attend junior colleges in 2015, were also included within the top 100 prospects of 2013. Of that group listed above I’d say only McGuire (injured) and Heady (bat hasn’t come around) have hurt their draft stock. In fact, almost all of those names listed above can make realistic claims as first round picks next June. That’s awesome. A really quick top ten before I slip and say that it’s way way way too early to be ranking players…
- Virginia SO RHP Connor Jones
- Tennessee SO RHP Kyle Serrano
- Notre Dame SO 2B/3B Cavan Biggio
- Oklahoma SO 3B Sheldon Neuse
- Georgia SO RHP Robert Tyler
- Nebraska SO OF Ryan Boldt
- Texas A&M SO OF Nick Banks
- Oklahoma SO RHP Alec Hansen
- Stanford SO RHP Cal Quantrill
- Clemson SO C Chris Okey
ACC has the bats, SEC has the pitching
First, it’s way way way too early to be ranking players in the most honest sense of the word. I think grouping players and prioritizing the potentially great prospects over the good is appropriate, but even a crazy person like myself won’t yet attempt a strict ranking. If I were to do so, ranking the pitchers would be a much easier task at this point. There’s a much clearer line between the best and the rest for me there right now.
I do believe, per the subheading above, that the ACC has a chance to become the spot for crosscheckers on the hunt for above-average position players in next year’s draft. It might be a stretch, but I can see an argument for the ACC possessing three of next year’s draft top four college infielders. Clemson SO C Chris Okey, Miami SO 1B/C Zach Collins, and Notre Dame SO 2B/3B Cavan Biggio all have a chance to go very, very high in 2016’s first round. A snappier prediction would have been about the ACC having THE top three infield bats, but Oklahoma SO 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse had to ruin those plans by being too darn good at baseball.
Still, Okey, Collins, and Biggio all have the chance to be long-term above-average regulars at demanding defensive positions; Okey and Biggio in particular could be major assets when you factor in their defensive value. I’m not sweating the relatively slow starts of Collins or Okey so far (Biggio has been great, which isn’t a shocker since he’s the most complete hitter of the trio), so you shouldn’t either. Collins has enough of the Kyle Schwarber/Travis Hafner power bat thing going on with a three-true outcomes approach to hitting that I think the bat plays at first if/when catching doesn’t work out. On the flip side, Okey moves so well behind the plate that Perfect Game compared him to a young Craig Biggio defensively back in 2013. His glove alone is almost reason enough to warrant a first day draft grade, and the fact that he could/should be a league average or better bat is what makes him a potential top ten pick in my eyes. Is it really any wonder why I like Biggio as much as I do? My old notes on him include the following: “born to hit,” “carries himself like a pro,” and “great pitch recognition.” Even better than that was the phrase “patient and aggressive all at once.” That’s my kind of hitter. It’s way too early to call it, but let’s do it anyway: Okey, Collins, and Biggio will all be first round picks in 2016.
The Hitters (including a return to gloves at short and catcher)
Keeping up with the ACC theme, Virginia SO C Matt Thaiss jumps out as another potential high round pick from looks like 2016’s best conference for bats. Thaiss is a rock solid defender who is starting to tap into his above-average raw power in a big enough way do his old Baseball America comps to Brian McCann justice. After Okey, Thaiss, and Texas SO C Tres Barrera, there’s still some quality depth. Some of the catchers from a bit off the beaten path (Santa Clara SO C Steve Berman, Grand Canyon SO C Josh Meyer) haven’t quite had the breakout second seasons I was hoping to see. Still, the overall depth at the position looks promising. Catchers are always in high demand in June, and I think this class will make many teams happy.
After Collins, first base looks grim. Two of my pre-season sleepers, Stony Brook SO 1B/OF Casey Baker and Texas State SO 1B Granger Studdard, have fallen flat so far this year. Thankfully East Carolina SO 1B/LHP Bryce Harman has come out of the gate mashing and Florida SO 1B Pete Alonso is coming off an impressive summer.
Once I figured out they weren’t the same guy, it was easy to like both Louisville SO 2B Nick Solak and Tennessee SO 2B Nick Senzel. Despite not yet making his college debut, I’m still sticking with the extremely promising LSU FR 2B/SS Greg Deichmann as the 1b to Biggio’s 1a at the position. The shortstops aren’t nearly on the level of what we have this year, but both Long Beach State SO SS Garrett Hampson and Tulane SO SS Stephen Alemais stand out as old-school defense-first prospects who could hit enough to still play every day. The aforementioned Neuse is the man at third base. Trailing him are names that include Vanderbilt FR 3B/SS Will Toffey, Clemson SO 3B/SS Weston Wilson, and Arizona SO 3B/RHP Bobby Dalbec, the closest current competitor to Neuse’s throne.
The real draw right now for fans of bad teams in search of offensive help will come in the outfield. Texas A&M SO OF Nick Banks and Nebraska SO OF Ryan Boldt appear set to battle back and forth throughout this season and next as the fight to see how high they can rise as first round picks. I’d have Boldt (who I comped to David Dahl back in HS) a tick above for the time being (better approach), but could see Banks closing the gap in short order thanks to a more impressive overall tool set (most notably raw power). Both look like safe first round picks as of now, good health pending.
The battle for the third spot is what interests me most right now. Many of the names expected to rise up (most notably Florida State OF/SS Ben DeLuzio) have taken a step back in the early going of 2015, but a lot of the athletic upside types like Florida OF Buddy Reed, Georgia SO OF Stephen Wrenn, LSU SO OF Jake Fraley, and Mississippi SO OF JB Woodman (hmm…SEC, SEC, SEC, and SEC) have stepped up in an even bigger way than hoped. Hey, did you catch that parenthetical note there? Might be time to amend one of the subheadings above…
ACC has the (infield) bats, SEC has the pitching (and outfielders)
That’s better. I’ll admit to not checking in on every single 2016 draft-eligible outfielder’s start to the 2015 season so far – I’m not even done previewing the current college season and we’re already over a month into things – but one favorite that I have noticed off to a hot start is St. John’s SO OF Michael Donadio, a really well-rounded player with an more advanced bat than most of his peers.
Power Pitchers from Power Conferences
In what I’d consider my top tier of 2016 college pitchers, the SEC has three out of the top seven prospects. If I get a bit more inclusive and check in with the larger second tier (18 pitchers), then you’d see that an even two-thirds (12) come from the SEC. By complete luck that comes out to 25 total pitchers in the top two tiers with 15 able to call the SEC home. I’m pretty pleased with how this turned out, what with Carson Cistulli recently finding that the SEC has produced 23% of baseball’s “good pitchers” since 2010. For what it’s worth, the ACC is second (barely) only to the Pac-12 in terms of producing “good batters” since 2010. Since I amended my previous conclusion that’s no longer as relevant; not sure what the metrics say about infield prospects only. Anyway!
Power Pitchers with Changeups = $$$
One of the big early trends that pleases me to no end in college baseball in recent years is the rise of the changeup, arguably the finest offspeed pitch known to man. Virginia SO RHP Connor Jones – above-average, flashes plus. Tennessee SO RHP Kyle Serrano – inconsistent, but flashes plus when on. Florida SO RHP Brett Morales – above-average, flashes plus to plus-plus. Stanford SO RHP Cal Quantrill (RIP right elbow ligament) – plus. Those are just the righthanders from the top tier. Arkansas SO RHP Dominic Taccolini, Auburn SO RHP Keegan Thompson, Florida SO RHP Logan Shore, Mississippi State SO RHP Austin Sexton, Oklahoma State SO RHP Thomas Hatch, Maryland SO RHP Michael Shawaryn, and Alabama SO RHP Geoffrey Bramblett all throw consistently average or better changeups at present.
I think any number of the pitchers in my current top tier could make a run at 1-1 next June. Cal Quantrill’s shot is probably gone now that there’s word he’ll go under the knife for Tommy John surgery in the coming days. Connor Jones might now be the front-runner for me. Jones can get it up to the mid-90s with some of the craziest movement you’ll see, plus he can mix in three offspeed pitches (slider flashes plus, solid curve, and a hard splitter that acts as a potential plus changeup) with the know-how and ability to command everything effectively. Comps I’ve heard run the gamut from Jeff Samardzija to Dan Haren to Homer Bailey, but I’m partial to one that hit me when viewing his second start this season: Masahiro Tanaka. I’ve comped another pitcher in this class I love Kyle Serrano (ranked 20th overall in 2013) to Jarrod Parker, who once went 9th overall in the draft, in the past. Georgia SO RHP Robert Tyler throws really hard (mid-90s, 98-99 peak) with pair of secondary pitches with major upside. Brett Morales might not be on everybody’s list so close to the top, but his changeup is such a dominating pitch when on that he’s hard to leave off. Oklahoma SO RHP Alec Hansen and Oklahoma State SO LHP Garrett Williams have some fantastic Friday night showdowns ahead; Hansen’s the hard-thrower with the size scouts love while Williams is the more polished athlete with advanced offspeed stuff.
Quick, unfortunate aside not worthy of a subheading of it’s own: due to the unnatural nature of throwing a baseball at high speeds with crazy movement every year the topic of injuries has to be brought up. The 2016 MLB Draft college class is no different. Texas SO RHP Morgan Cooper, College of Charleston SO RHP Bailey Ober, and Cal Quantrill will all be closely monitored as they come back from injury that knocked out all or most of their 2015 seasons. Cooper and Ober should both be good to go relatively close to the start of the season while Quantrill will be lucky to be back by mid-season at the earliest. The upside of a healthy Quantrill and the timing of his injury put him on any short list of most fascinating draft prospects for 2016 right now. He was a top ten slam dunk for me pre-injury…and I wouldn’t rule him out from getting back there if he can avoid any immediate post-rehab setbacks.
Power Pitchers with Changeups from Power Conferences >>> Everybody Else
A lot will happen between now and June of 2016 – I’ll no longer be in my twenties, for instance – so it’s foolhardy to suggest anything I say now should be written in ink. My one bummer of a prediction is that college baseball’s non-power conferences appear primed to take a backseat to the traditional powers in 2016. I say that as a long-time advocate for players who don’t get written about every single Thursday by every single national college baseball publication. The monster recruits of 2013 that went unsigned and went to big-time schools have almost all panned out, effectively crowding out the little guys in next year’s draft class. There is hope, however. Pitchers from Air Force, Central Michigan, and Kent State should rise way up boards. There are even guys from Northwestern State, Albany, High Point, and Sacred Heart that have top five round upside or better.
Way, way, way too early college follow lists that are unranked and as inclusive as possible. I left a lot of players on even though they are off to verrrrrry slow starts this year because at this point scouting reports trump performance by a silly margin. If I left off anybody (particularly if it’s a son/nephew/BFF/player on your favorite team), assume it’s a mistake and gently remind me in the comments or via email.
Clemson SO C Chris Okey
NC State SO C/3B Andrew Knizner
Virginia SO C Matt Thaiss
Tulane SO C Jake Rogers
Mississippi State SO C Gavin Collins
Texas SO C Tres Barrera
Furman SO C Cameron Whitehead
Murray State SO C Tyler Lawrence
USC SO C/1B Jeremy Martinez
Maryland SO C/1B Nick Cieri
Pepperdine SO C Aaron Barnett
Santa Clara SO C Steve Berman
Grand Canyon SO C Josh Meyer
Ball State SO C Jarett Rindfleisch
Miami SO 1B/C Zack Collins
East Carolina SO 1B/LHP Bryce Harman
Florida SO 1B Pete Alonso
Stony Brook SO 1B/OF Casey Baker
Texas State SO 1B Granger Studdard
Notre Dame SO 2B/3B Cavan Biggio
Louisville SO 2B Nick Solak
Notre Dame SO 2B/SS Kyle Fiala
Wake Forest SO 2B/OF Nate Mondou
LSU FR 2B/SS Greg Deichmann
Tennessee SO 2B/3B Nick Senzel
Texas A&M SO 2B/OF Ryne Birk
Columbia SO 2B Will Savage
Florida Atlantic SO 2B/SS Stephen Kerr
Long Beach State SO SS Garrett Hampson
Virginia Tech SO SS Ricky Surum
Tulane SO SS Stephen Alemais
Mississippi FR SS/2B Tate Blackman
Mississippi SO SS/2B Errol Robinson
Arizona State SO SS/2B Colby Woodmansee
Sacred Heart SO SS Zack Short
Austin Peay State SO SS/3B Logan Gray
Stanford SO SS Tommy Edman
San Diego FR SS/2B Bryson Brigman
Central Michigan SO SS Alex Borglin
Coastal Carolina SO SS/2B Michael Paez
Oklahoma SO 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse
Clemson SO 3B/SS Weston Wilson
Louisville rFR 3B/SS Blake Tiberi
Vanderbilt FR 3B/SS Will Toffey
Texas A&M SO 3B/C Ronnie Gideon
Oklahoma State SO 3B Andrew Rosa
Texas SO 3B Andy McGuire
Arizona SO 3B/RHP Bobby Dalbec
Bradley SO 3B Spencer Gaa
Texas A&M SO OF Nick Banks
Nebraska SO OF Ryan Boldt
Florida State SO OF/SS Ben DeLuzio
Louisville SO OF Corey Ray
Miami SO OF Willie Abreu
LSU SO OF Jake Fraley
Georgia SO OF Stephen Wrenn
Mississippi SO OF JB Woodman
Arkansas SO OF Andrew Benintendi
Arkansas FR OF Luke Bonfield
Vanderbilt SO OF/1B Bryan Reynolds
Florida SO OF Buddy Reed
Oklahoma SO OF Cody Thomas
Oklahoma State SO OF Ryan Sluder
St. John’s SO OF Michael Donadio
Mercer SO OF Kyle Lewis
Samford SO OF Heath Quinn
UCLA SO OF/2B Luke Persico
UCLA SO OF Brett Stephens
Washington State SO OF Cameron Frost
Ohio State SO OF Ronnie Dawson
Ohio State SO OF Troy Montgomery
Hawaii SO OF/2B Marcus Doi
UC Riverside SO OF Vince Fernandez
BYU SO OF Brennon Lund
Loyola Marymount SO OF Austin Miller
Ball State SO OF Alex Call
Jacksonville SO OF Austin Hays
Nevada SO OF/LHP Trenton Brooks
Virginia SO RHP Connor Jones
Tennessee SO RHP Kyle Serrano
Georgia SO RHP Robert Tyler
Florida SO RHP Brett Morales
Oklahoma SO RHP Alec Hansen
Oklahoma State SO LHP Garrett Williams
Stanford SO RHP Cal Quantrill
Arkansas SO RHP Dominic Taccolini
Auburn SO RHP/1B Keegan Thompson
South Carolina SO RHP Wil Crowe
Florida SO LHP/1B AJ Puk
Florida SO RHP Logan Shore
Mississippi State SO RHP Austin Sexton
Oklahoma State SO RHP Thomas Hatch
Texas SO RHP Morgan Cooper
Oregon SO LHP Matt Krook
Oregon State FR RHP Drew Rasmussen
Arkansas SO RHP Zach Jackson
Vanderbilt rFR RHP Jordan Sheffield
Maryland SO RHP Mike Shawaryn
College of Charleston SO RHP Bailey Ober
Louisiana SO RHP Reagan Bazar
Alabama SO RHP Geoffrey Bramblett
Connecticut SO LHP Anthony Kay
California SO RHP Daulton Jefferies
Boston College SO RHP Justin Dunn
Louisville SO RHP Zack Burdi
Louisville SO LHP Drew Harrington
Miami SO RHP/1B Derik Beauprez
Miami SO RHP Bryan Garcia
North Carolina SO RHP/SS Spencer Trayner
Pittsburgh SO RHP TJ Zeuch
Houston SO RHP Andrew Lantrip
Houston SO RHP Marshall Kasowski
Tulane SO RHP JP France
LSU SO LHP Jared Poche
South Carolina SO RHP Matt Vogel
Alabama SO RHP Nick Eicholtz
Georgia SO LHP Connor Jones
Vanderbilt SO RHP Hayden Stone
Florida SO RHP Dane Dunning
Mississippi State SO RHP Dakota Hudson
Texas A&M SO RHP Ryan Hendrix
Oklahoma SO RHP Jake Elliott
TCU SO RHP Brian Howard
Texas Tech SO LHP Ty Damron
Arizona SO RHP Austin Schnabel
Arizona State SO RHP Hever Bueno
Washington State SO RHP Ian Hamilton
Michigan SO LHP Brett Adcock
Nebraska SO RHP Derek Burkamper
Pacific SO RHP Vince Arobio
Wichita State SO LHP/1B Sam Hilliard
Air Force SO RHP/1B Griffin Jax
Central Michigan SO LHP/1B Nick Deeg
Kent State SO RHP Andy Ravel
Northwestern State SO RHP Adam Oller
Albany SO RHP Stephen Woods
Elon SO RHP/C Chris Hall
Stetson SO RHP Mitchell Jordan
High Point SO RHP Cas Silber
Longwood SO RHP Mitchell Kuebbing
Sacred Heart SO RHP Jason Foley
2015 MLB Draft Prospects – Clemson
Hey, all. It’s that time of year. We’re doing team-by-team college prospect previews for as long as I have the sanity to keep rolling ‘em out. Feel free to request a team/conference and I’ll put it at the top of the list. Also, as always, don’t hesitate to tell me how wrong I am in the comments or via email (email@example.com)…
JR LHP Matthew Crownover (2015)
JR LHP Zack Erwin (2015)
JR RHP Clate Schmidt (2015)
rSO RHP Wales Toney (2015
rJR RHP Patrick Andrews (2015)
rSR RHP Kevin Pohle (2015)
rSR RHP Jake Long (2015)
JR RHP Brady Koerner (2015)
rSR RHP Clay Bates (2015)
rSO RHP Garrett Lovorn (2015)
JR OF Steven Duggar (2015)
SR OF Tyler Slaton (2015)
rSO OF Maleeke Gibson (2015)
JR SS/3B Tyler Krieger (2015)
SO C Chris Okey (2016)
SO LHP Pat Krall (2016)
SO 3B/SS Weston Wilson (2016)
SO SS/2B Eli White (2016)
SO LHP Alex Bostic (2016)
SO RHP Drew Moyer (2016)
rFR 3B Glenn Batson (2016)
rFR OF Reed Rohlman (2016)
FR OF KJ Bryant (2017)
FR LHP Charlie Barnes (2017)
FR OF Drew Wharton (2017)
I like this Clemson team on paper. The pitching looks really promising with up to eight draft-eligible pitchers hitting the low-90s by my last count (I’m sure there are more, but I’m only one man here). Injuries to some of the most talented arms make it tough to truly pick a favorite, but I think it comes down to going with one of the quartet of JR LHP Matthew Crownover, JR LHP Zack Erwin, JR RHP Clate Schmidt, or rSO RHP Wales Toney. The first three names all made significant strides between the 2013 season and last year. Crownover is the most polished (three pitch mix highlighted by my favorite pitch, a good CU) and has the best control, Erwin has the deepest repertoire, good deception, and imposing size (6-5, 200), and Schmidt is the best athlete with the hottest heat (lives in the 90s, peaks at 96). As a draft eligible arm with no real college track record to speak of, the big-armed Toney (95 peak) is the mystery man of the group. All four are definite draft picks in my mind and potentially high ones at that.
The next tier of Clemson pitching is still quite solid. There’s not a lot to go on results-wise (at least of late) when it comes to evaluating rJR RHP Patrick Andrews, rSR RHP Kevin Pohle, and JR RHP Brady Koerner, but all fit the the mid- to late-round middle relief profile at the next level. Andrews and Pohle in particular have that FB/SL combination that pro teams seem to like, but may not miss enough bats to get serious draft consideration barring big 2015 seasons.
JR OF Steven Duggar is as tooled up as just about any college player in the country. His speed, arm, and athleticism all rate with anybody else in the class. Even if the approach (27 BB/51 K last season) never catches up to where you want it, those tools will all play in the big leagues. He’s a ready to roll from day one center field prospect as speed, arm, and defense can take you very far with an up-the-middle profile. He could move from good to great prospect by either showing an improved approach or showing more consistent power. I’m not sure what adjustments it’ll take to help him unlock his considerable raw power in game situations, but if that happens to click, watch out.
Duggar could be flanked in the outfield with a pair of potential 2015 draftees to either side. SR OF Tyler Slaton is a classic undersized senior sign grinder who can run, defend, and battle through at bats enough to get a look. rSO OF Maleeke Gibson has yet to do much on the big stage, but he’s a plus runner with the chance to open some eyes if the stars align. An argument can be made that Duggar, awesome as his tools may be, is not the best 2015 draft prospect in the Clemson lineup. That title could fall to JR SS/3B Tyler Krieger, a big personal favorite. In light of Kyle Seager’s recent massive extension, I think we’re all trying to find “the next Kyle Seager.” I won’t say it’s Krieger, but there are some scouting similarities between the two. I like Krieger for his above-average to plus speed (plays up, too), simple direct swing path, and steady glovework. I’d like to see a little more consistency with his throws this year and a little more pop wouldn’t hurt (that’s the one clear area college Seager has him beat), but Krieger is a rock solid prospect as is. Clemson’s last two recruiting classes have injected even more talent into the program with SO C Chris Okey, SO 3B/SS Weston Wilson, and SO RHP Drew Moyer all showing early signs of promise. I’m also intrigued by SO LHP Alex Bostic, FR OF KJ Bryant, and FR LHP Charlie Barnes. Of both future draft classes, Okey stands out as the biggest potential star but don’t sleep on Wilson or Bostic breaking through this year.