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Top 500 Prospects Drafted by Atlanta in 2016
17 – Ian Anderson
25 – Joey Wentz
87 – Brett Cumberland
92 – Kyle Muller
275 – Bryse Wilson
376 – Drew Harrington
1.3 – RHP Ian Anderson
Ian Anderson (17) is a better prospect than the number in parentheses next to his name indicates. A general fear of high school pitching caused him to move down my final board — a board with Groome/Pint in the top two spots, go figure — but I like the Braves going bold (and underslot) with Anderson at three. The logic behind the pick feels sound (in a draft with no sure-things, spread that bonus around to take as many stabs at early round talent as you can) and the player they actually landed is as good a bet as any first round pick to make a difference over the long haul. Feels like a win-win to me. A few older notes on Anderson from April 2016…
Fans of twenty-nine other teams would not like this one bit. Ian Anderson, a dark-horse 1-1 candidate, has everything you’d want to see in a high school righthander with worlds of projection left. He also helps my pet theory that there’s an easy shortcut to amateur scouting: just follow the recruits. If a player is committed to Vanderbilt, like Ian Anderson is, move him up ___ spots on your board. Let the college teams do the hard work for you! Vanderbilt, Florida, UCLA, LSU…if a guy has a commitment to a school on that level, then you should want to draft him. I loved Anderson as much as anybody as he began to put his name on the national map, but once he had that Vandy commit in his back pocket he started looking better than ever.
You can ignore the college commitment thing if you want, but the “dark-horse 1-1 candidate” bit is worth keeping in mind. I saw some kill Atlanta for reaching badly for Anderson here, but it’s hard to call a pitcher identified as a dark-horse 1-1 candidate two months before the draft all that much of a reach at three. From April 2016 as well…
A pre-season FAVORITE who has only gone on to bigger and better things in the interim, Ian Anderson can make a case for being the top prep righthander in this class. He’s one of the handful of young arms with the potential for three plus pitches — 88-94 fastball (95 peak), 77-80 breaking ball, and a 80-85 change — but what truly separates him from the pack is his ten years in the big league veteran command. Fantasy owners rightfully scared off by high school pitchers — so far from the big leagues with so much time to get hurt! — not named Groome and Pint would be wise to include Anderson in that big three on draft day. One scout friend of mine called Anderson a “more explosive Aaron Nola.” A little bit of upside (or a lot), a little bit of certainty (very little, but still more than most HS arms)…where do I sign up?
“More explosive Aaron Nola” is exceedingly high praise, I’d say. Anderson has a legit claim to three future plus pitches (88-94 sinking FB, 96 peak; 75-80 CB, 80-85 CU) with plus command and plenty of projection left in his 6-3, 170 pound frame. I’m literally not sure what more you could want in a high school pitching prospect. Atlanta’s system is loaded with both high-end (albeit risky) talent and crazy depth, so offseason prospect rankings of the team’s farm will be some of the most interesting we’ve seen in years. There’s so much top-heavy talent that there’s really no wrong way to organize the team’s cream of the crop (or at least I hope not…); hopefully my kind of out there take that the two best prospects in the system right now are Anderson and Kolby Allard in some order (with mystery man Kevin Maitan on the same tier but too hard for me to place just yet) isn’t seen as too nuts. On second thought, who really cares if it is?
1.40 – LHP Joey Wentz
You’re free to ignore my Joey Wentz (25) take considering I initially liked him better as a hitter than a pitcher after seeing him for the first time last summer. That’s when I first starting thinking of him as a bigger Pavin Smith, a comp that feels outdated now that we know Wentz is a pro pitcher and Smith will soon be a pro hitter. Probably wasn’t a great comp to begin with considering the two guys throw with opposite hands, but what’s done is done. Moving past that, we’re free to talk about Wentz and how fantastic he looked on the mound for scouts all spring. With a big fastball (89-94, 96 peak), a 69-76 curve with above-average to plus promise, and a 79-85 change that looks a little better with every chance he has to throw it, Wentz has the kind of stuff to pitch near the front of a rotation. His command is far better than you’d expect out of two-way performer, but his control remains a bit of a work in progress. The all-around package is very enticing, and his athleticism (plus whatever you get out of him as a hitter, assuming our little non-DH league survives) and physical strength (“very well put together” was a familiar post-draft refrain) are cherries on top.
Interestingly enough (to me), I have no comps for Wentz. Asked around — hence the “very well put together” bit — and nobody could offer nothing. Closest I got was the “not a real comp” comp of the high school version of Madison Bumgarner (pre-slider) based on very general shared traits like size, strength, athleticism, ability at the plate, and fastball velocity. Again, that’s not a direct comparison by any stretch — and, as mentioned a few times lately around here, Bumgarner’s development makes him a tough guy to comp any young pitcher to — but it’s the closest I got all spring/summer for the “uncompable” Wentz.
2.44 – LHP Kyle Muller
Apparently Atlanta liked Joey Wentz so much that they decided to grab him again just four picks later. Fine, Kyle Muller (92) isn’t an exact clone of Wentz, but the two are close. Both had dominant springs in competitive high school environments. Both have seen considerable velocity jumps over the past twelve months. Both were seen by some as better hitters (hey, even if I was the only one who liked Wentz’s bat that much, it still counts!) at one point or another during their amateur careers. And both are lefthanders with intimidating size. Their differences, however, help explain the roughly half-million dollar difference paid out to the two on draft day. Honestly, I assumed it would have been a larger difference before I started typing that sentence. Let’s use this one instead: Their differences, however, explain why one guy (Wentz) was ranked 25th on the pre-draft board while the other (Muller) came in at 92nd. Little self-serving, but better.
The point either way is that Wentz is the better prospect than Muller. That doesn’t mean Muller is a bad prospect, obviously; it simply means that Wentz is better. Muller’s present fastball (85-92, 94 peak) isn’t quite on the same level as Wentz’s and his offspeed stuff (73-78 CB, 77 CU) tops out as average for now unlike Wentz’s potential plus breaker. When Wentz can look like a potential game one or two playoff starter at his best, Muller’s ceiling feels closer to the middle of the rotation than the top. He’s still a really good prospect with as much a chance to become a great one than to fade away.
2.76 – C Brett Cumberland
On Brett Cumberland (87) from April 2016…
Brett Cumberland primary claim to fame is and will be his bat. His hit tool is legit and his power is really appealing. He’s also been described to me as a guy who can be pitched to while also being the kind of smart, naturally gifted hitter who can then make adjustments on the fly. His glove is more “good enough” than good, but there’s enough there that you can work with him to make it work.
I’ve since heard two things about Cumberland’s defense behind the plate. First, Atlanta is going to do whatever it takes to work with him to make it work as a catcher. Second, he’s not a catcher. Those two bits of information could not possibly make less sense when lumped together as one, yet they 100% could both be true. I believe in Cumberland enough as a hitter to think he could carve out a big league role for himself even if he can’t catch regularly. I also believe that said role (bat-first 1B/C platoon and/or bench option?) would not quite justify his second round pedigree. It’s not quite so simple to say that Cumberland has to catch to make this pick worth it, but…he kind of has to catch to make this pick worth it. That is, unless you really believe in him as a hitter. I qualified my earlier belief in his bat with “enough” and “could,” so that should tell you something about where I stand there. I still like the pick because, as an upside junkie, getting a potential impact offensive catcher this late in the draft is a rare and beautiful thing. If you have any confidence at all you can squeeze out an average-ish defender out of him behind the plate, then this is worth a shot. I’d personally lean towards wanting a better defensive catcher (Sean Murphy and Jeremy Martinez were two of the next three catchers off the board, FWIW) to grow and work with the bevy of young pitchers coming up through the system.
3.80 – LHP Drew Harrington
Drew Harrington (376) breaks my longstanding rule of exhausting a pitcher out as a starter before moving him to the bullpen as a last resort. I’d still have Harrington pitch in a minor league rotation as long as possible, but I think a future in a big league bullpen as a two-pitch reliever (88-93 fastball with plenty of movement, above-average to plus 76-82 breaking ball he leans on heavily) suits him better than trying to get through a lineup multiple times as a potential fifth starter. Harrington as a reliever at Louisville missed bats like crazy. I’d take more of the 2015 version of Harrington (12.19 K/9 and 0.29 ERA in 31.0 relief innings) than the 2016 starting pitching version (6.95 K/9 and 2.08 ERA in 103.2 IP). I get the value of a starter over a reliever, and I think Atlanta would be wise to keep him starting as long as he can handle it. HOWEVER, Harrington looks like a future reliever to me any way you slice it. Getting him accustomed to that role sooner rather than later seems like good business to me. It also doesn’t hurt that Atlanta has a much-discussed starting pitching surplus throughout the system. Get Harrington in the bullpen and I think he could pitch his way into the relief mix by 2018.
To add fuel to my Harrington as reliever fire, Frankie Pilliere dropped one of my all-time favorite comps on the young lefty from Louisville this spring. Ready for this one? Pilliere said that Harrington reminded him of Ron Villone. How great is that? I love that the MLB Draft allows us to discuss a player compared to Ron Villone. And it’s a really good comp, too!
4.109 – RHP Bryse Wilson
The internet is a big place, so I’m quite sure that somebody else has already done this. Just in case…
26.2 IP 29 K 8 BB 2 ER
27.2 IP 38 K 12 BB 2 ER
39.2 IP 36 K 12 BB 9 ER
44.0 IP 53 K 25 BB 18 ER
Those are the debut lines for the four high school pitchers selected by Atlanta within their first six picks. That comes out to a 2.02 ERA in 138 IP with 10.17 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9. If we take out the “worst” (relative term!) of the quartet (sorry, Joey Wentz), then the numbers look like this: 9.86 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, and 1.24 ERA in 94 IP. That’s insane. I don’t love what Atlanta did once we get past the first few rounds, but it may not matter if these prep pitchers pan out as hoped. Bryse Wilson (275), the latest prep pitcher in question, looks like a keeper. He shares many of the same traits as the three high school pitchers to come before him — dominant spring performance, athletic, good fastballs — with a little less size and physical projection left than his peers. That’s not much of a problem when a) you’re already hitting the mid-90s with your fastball, and b) you’re no longer talking about a player being taken in the first hundred picks. Wilson’s big arm (88-94, 96 peak), intriguing 77-80 slider, and deceptive if sometimes unruly delivery give him a solid relief floor even if starting doesn’t work out.
5.139 – RHP Jeremy Walker
Jeremy Walker is pretty close to the ascending college pitcher prototype. He’s been good in the past, sure, but his best days look to be ahead of him. I was impressed with his jump in strikeouts from his sophomore season (6.86 K/9) to his junior year (8.88 K/9), and he kept that up in his pro debut (8.39 K/9). I’ve long looked at his as a future reliever because I could see his fastball eventually living in the mid- to upper-90s with a wipeout hard slider, but he’s got the size, athleticism, and third pitch (not a change, but a softer curve) to get through the order multiple times. I like this pick a lot. So often I’ll go fifth starter/middle reliever on a college guy’s upside, but Walker is a clear cut above that for me. I think he’s either a mid-rotation arm or a late-inning reliever. He’s good.
6.169 – 2B Matt Gonzalez
I’ve really, really liked Atlanta’s draft to this point. This, however, is where the wheels begin to come off a little bit for me. Fortunately (because my opinion is all that matters, naturally), Atlanta came back around with some later picks like Rowland, White (x2), Howell, Benson, Crowley, Clouse, and Pokorney. Until then, we get a little bit of a lull. Now back to your regularly scheduled pick-by-pick analysis…
We probably should have seen this coming. Matt Gonzalez went from a Georgia HS (Harrison) to Georgia Tech to Atlanta, Georgia. He looks the part and has many of the physical skills needed to reach the big leagues, but his approach at the plate has long limited his overall value as a hitter. His prospect status gets a slight bump thanks to his defensive versatility — he played second, third, and left field in his debut — and there’s always some hope that a player as talented as he looked to be entering Georgia Tech will figure things out in the pros. I have a hard time getting on board with a college prospect without overwhelming tools who enters pro ball with a 63 BB/191 K college mark, but Atlanta did not consult me before making the pick.
7.199 – OF JB Moss
I love that the Braves went aggressive in promoting JB Moss to High-A Carolina after just about 100 or so impressive plate appearances in rookie ball. That promotion didn’t go all that well, but if you’re drafting a 23-year-old in the seventh round then you should expect him to be able to handle a full-season assignment as soon as possible. If the experience helps Moss start strong at High-A next season, it’ll have been worth it. For as much as I love the aggressive promotion, I’m not quite as in love with the prospect. Moss has clear big league skills in his speed, center field range, and throwing arm, but offensively he’s too much of a hacker to justify his below-average pop. I suppose taking players like Moss is just the cost of doing business when you go overslot early in the draft. Still, there are other senior-signs that could offer more than his fifth outfielder upside.
8.229 – LHP Taylor Hyssong
A jump in velocity from the upper-80s to the low-90s (94 peak) helped Tyler Hyssong get drafted in the eighth round. He might not have been my preferred senior-sign in this case, but I suppose there’s some logic in getting a low-mileage lefthander with that kind of velocity when you can.
9.259 – OF Tyler Neslony
On Tyler Neslony from April 2016…
Tyler Neslony, the top returning position player prospect in the conference per this very site (he peaked at third behind CJ Hinojosa and Ben Johnson last year), is hurt by the strong likelihood that he’ll be confined to the corners as a pro. I still like his power and plate discipline combination as a mid- to late-round senior sign. Scouts who saw a lot of him during his awesome sophomore season will likely give him more of the benefit of the doubt than those in the national media who consider going fifty deep with a draft list an exhausting task.
As alluded to above, Neslony looked like a contender to eventually crash the top first few rounds after his humongous sophomore season (.375/.454/.600 with 20 BB/16 K), but never quite reached the same peaks over his next two seasons at Texas Tech. I think the barrier to entry as a corner outfielder is likely too high for Neslony, but I can get behind him as a potential platoon and/or bench bat if he can keep hitting.
10.289 – SS Marcus Mooney
Marcus Mooney is about as straightforward an evaluation you’re going to get. Defensively, he’s reliable with good hands and a strong arm without exceptional range. Offensively, he has a knack for making lots of contact but his overall upside is limited due to a lack of pop and merely average foot speed. His work ethic and demeanor in the clubhouse make him exactly the kind of player you want other prospects in the organization to learn from. The fact he can play multiple spots — he saw time at short, second, and third in his debut — makes him a perpetually useful plug-and-play option. If he hangs on long enough there’s at least a glimmer of hope he can one day be a big league utility guy, but that’s a long shot at this point. There’s still some real overarching developmental value with having a guy like him on your side, but I get that this isn’t a pick that will excited the masses.
11.319 – RHP Matt Rowland
I like Matt Rowland a lot more today than I did a few months ago and that’s without the benefit of having thrown a single professional pitch yet in his career. The one-man operation I’ve got going here means that occasionally my information will be dated enough to render it more or less useless. Between that and the fact that some teenagers simply refuse to stop growing and getting stronger, I can miss on certain players due to bad or old information. My notes on Rowland paint a picture of a 6-3, 180 pound kid with some projection left, a present 86-91 fastball, and a pair of inconsistent breaking balls that often run into each other. The current version of Rowland is listed at 6-5, 175 pounds with a fastball that can hit the mid-90s and a much sharper breaking ball thrown with far more consistent power.
12.349 – RHP Brandon White
Born 12/21/1994. Outstanding pro debut. Good size. Went to school at Lander. Got $100,000 to sign. Put up these numbers –13.40 K/9 and 3.13 BB/9 in 40.1 IP — as the Bearcats closer. Leans on a solid cut-slider he’ll throw in any count. Not a ton of upside, but relatively high floor as a potential quick-moving reliever with a long track record of missing bats. Nice pick.
13.379 – RHP Brandon White
Born 12/6/1992. Decent pro debut. Good size. Went to school at Davenport. Got $85,000 to sign. Did this — 9.44 K/9 and 1.77 BB/9 in 61.0 IP — in the Panthers rotation. College teammates with Corbin Clouse, Atlanta’s twenty-seventh round pick (see below). Athletic delivery with a fast arm capable of running it up to the mid- to upper-90s (97 peak) gives him more upside than most thirteenth round picks, but he’ll have to move quick as a 23-year-old rookie. With his heat that’s certainly possible assuming he is shifted full-time to the bullpen. Nice pick.
14.409 – 1B Ramon Osuna
When I reached out to a few different contacts for information on Ramon Osuna the first thing out of each guy’s mouth was about the kind of person and worker he is. Talk about his baseball ability came second, but everybody (two people, fine) wanted to share how good a guy he was first and foremost. How much that matters to you is a personal call, but, if nothing else, I think it makes rooting for Atlanta’s fourteenth round pick a lot easier from the outside looking in. Osuna, of course, is more than just a nice fellow, snappy dresser, and good tipper.. His final year at Walters State saw him hit a robust .389/.513/.755 with 54 BB/45 K and 12/12 SB in 208 AB. The big (6-3, 240) lefty moves well enough for his size to have played some outfield for the Senators, though first base was the only position he spent time at in his pro debut. Curtailing some of the swing-and-miss in his game would go a long way to moving him from “intriguing” to “hey, this guy is legit and more people need to pay attention” as a prospect, but his power and underrated athleticism are enough to get him on the radar for now.
15.439 – RHP Zach Becherer
I write draft reviews across the league in a scattershot way, jumping from team to team depending on my current mood. One hour I might be working on the Rockies, the next hour I might come back to Atlanta. It’s all about my motivation in that given moment as well as the flow of information I’m getting at that time about that team. Sometimes that produces some odd looking results. I walked away from Atlanta’s draft for about a month to finish other team reports (and, you know, real life stuff), so when I finally came back to this one week ago things looked a little…chaotic. Here are my unedited notes on Zach Becherer, Braves fifteenth round pick…
Cool video can be found on Zach Becherer here.
14.33 K/9 in 27.0 IP
same school as unsigned Dayton Tripp, who is off to Lipscomb.
only 5 starts
88-92 (93), 76-81 BB
95, reports of rumored higher peaks
April 13th TJ surgery
17.499 – RHP Devan Watts
Devan Watts struck out 11.31 batters per nine innings in his junior season at Tusculum. That figure helped up his two-year mark to 10.93 with a 2.26 BB/9 and 2.44 ERA to go with it. He’s part of a larger draft trend of emphasizing track record and not worrying about level of competition or size. The converted infielder’s reputation as a hard sinker/slider ground ball roller didn’t quite hold up in a pro debut he actually allowed more fly balls than ground balls, but everything else about his start in pro ball (9.89 K/9 and 0.76 ER in 23.2 IP) looks good from the outside looking in.
18.569 – LHP Zach Rice
Much respect to Atlanta’s area guy down in North Carolina if this one works out. Zach Rice has always been regarded as a live-armed lefty (87-92 FB, 94 peak; 82-84 SL) with considerable natural talent, but getting him the innings needed to show off his ability has been a persistent challenge. His ugly pro debut was certainly less than both he and Atlanta could have hoped for, but at least he was out on a mound for an extended period of time. The 17.2 IP he threw Danville almost matched his innings total (36.1) achieved in three seasons as a Tar Heel. Some of the sting of that rough start can also be taken away when Rice’s age (20-years-old all season, young for his class) is taken into account. The Braves seemed to bet big on many small school prospects who put up big numbers later in the draft. This pick is the complete opposite of that. I like the diversification of their draft portfolio in that way.
19.599 – LHP Tucker Davidson
Tucker Davidson used his good stuff (everybody raves about his slider) to get off to a great start in pro ball. He’s well worth watching going forward. Davidson also gets high marks from the numbers side of my brain for doing this at Midland JC: 9.47 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, and 2.27 ERA in 71.1 IP. Those numbers look good without context, but consider that the cumulative staff ERA at Midland this past year was 5.49. Without Davidson, the staff ERA would have jumped to 6.10.
20.589 – 2B Gabe Howell
I say it a lot, but any high school prospect signed after the completion of the top ten rounds is a gamble worth taking. Gabe Howell, twentieth round pick of Atlanta, is no exception. Howell is an exceptional athlete with legit plus speed and burgeoning power. There’s some uncertainty about where he’ll wind up defensively — the prep shortstop played third in his debut, but could also be tried at second or center to see what sticks — but he’s a skilled enough player to make it work somewhere. Great pick.
21.619 – RHP Dalton Carroll
Dalton Carroll’s career K/9’s by season as a Ute: 4.81 in 2013, 5.76 in 2014, 5.42 K/9 in 2015, and 5.15 in 2016. Once he signed his first pro contract and put on a Danville Brave jersey, his K/9 spiked to 8.46. Stuff like that really reinforces the pointlessness of trying to guess what direction 18- to 22-year-old ballplayers’ careers will go. That doesn’t mean we’ll quit trying, of course. Carroll has decent stuff — 88-92 FB (94 peak) with two average or so offspeed pitches (change and slider) — and solid command, so he should continue to pitch well in the low-minors. His big test will come around AA or so. It’s a fifth starter skill set if it all works out, but middle relief seems his most likely realistic destination if he is to make it in the big leagues.
22.649 – 1B Alex Lee
Alex Lee finished up his final year at Samford as one of college baseball’s most productive senior bats. The lefthander hit .335/.421/.523 with 35 BB/28 K in 239 AB. That alone makes him a nice pick in my book. The most likely outcome is probably organizational hitter with a slim chance at being an up-and-down bench bat, but the process (find enough highly productive amateur bats) is more important to me here than the probable result.
23.679 – 1B Griffin Benson
Griffin Benson was being pulled over by a police offer when he found out the Braves had drafted him. That’s great. It’s also all I have on him. The earlier rule about there being no such thing as a bad high school pick after round ten applies to Benson. He’s big (6-5, 210), he’s a switch-hitter, and he’s from Texas. Works for me.
24.709 – OF Matt Hearn
Turns out that Atlanta really love their California Community College Baseball players. One such player is Matt Hearn, an outfielder who hit .383/.458/.467 with 22 BB/11 K in 193 PA at Mission JC this past spring. He didn’t hit nearly that well in his pro debut and the quick notes I had on him weren’t particularly encouraging (good approach, but not quite enough power/speed to make an impact), but I can’t get too mad at a team taking a shot on a guy with twice as many walks as whiffs in his draft year.
25.739 – 3B Ryan O’Malley
Ryan O’Malley hit .335/.442/.557 with 34 BB/34 K in 176 AB for Sonoma State in 2016. I don’t mean to oversimplify the Braves approach — and keep in mind I’m only guessing as best an outsider can — but it appears that performance matters and level of competition isn’t all that much a concern. I can dig it. Feels a little Cardinals-y.
26.769 – C Alan Crowley
Forgive me for having to double-check if it’s Alan Crowley from Reedley or Alan Reedley from Crowley. Either way, it appears the Braves have done it again. Crowley hit .363/.463/.525 with 24 BB/18 K in 190 PA at Reedley this past year. The power spike was new for him, but the plus approach has always been a part of his game. All I know beyond that is that he’s good enough defensively to stick behind the plate. Works for me.
27.799 – LHP Corbin Clouse
75 strikeouts and 25 walks in 50 innings. That’s a very pretty line. And it’s exactly what Corbin Clouse did as a redshirt-sophomore at Davenport. His numbers were even better in the pros, though slightly less pretty to look at. In 30.1 IP (damn that third of an inning), Clouse struck out 53 batters and walked 15. That’s good for a 15.74 K/9 and a 4.46 BB/9 with the majority of his innings taking place in Low-A. I can dig it. His stuff fits the standard sinker/slider middle relief prototype with the added benefit of coming from the left side. He can also mix in a curve that flashes average or better and a nascent change, but both pitches have largely been phased out in lieu that one-two low-90s sinker/low-80s slider punch better suited to relief work. Fantastic work by the Braves zeroing in on this guy. It wouldn’t shock me to see him contribute to a big league bullpen as early as the middle of next season.
28.829 – 2B Nick Shumpert
A little bit of data can mean a lot to me. I don’t know if that makes me a “box score scout” or what, but the one-eighty spin I did on Nick Shumpert from 2015 to 2016 was based far more on performance informing an opinion than projection influencing judgment. I can live with whatever that makes me. Here’s some of what was written about the high school version of Shumpert…
Nick Shumpert (Highlands Ranch HS, Colorado) is another high-level easy to like middle infield prospect. On straight tools alone, he might rank second only to Rodgers in this year’s high school shortstop class. If power upside is what you want, I’d say he’s pretty clearly second only to Rodgers. That average or better raw power combined with a fascinating mixture of athleticism, arm strength (average, maybe more), speed (above-average, plays up), defensive upside (love him at second, but think he could also excel at short in time), and bat speed (so hard to measure objectively, but whatever it is he has it) make him a pretty large personal favorite. He’s even got the big league bloodlines thing going for him, if you’re into that sort of thing. If there’s a player in this class I’d compare to [Brandon] Phillips, it would be Shumpert and his explosive hands at the plate.
And here’s something written about Kyle Lewis and scouting hitting in general that applies…
It goes back to something I mentioned in the comments section a few weeks back: guys either learn to hit or they don’t. That’s my paraphrased take from this scout’s quote talking about the likelihood of Jahlil Okafor improving his outside shot as a professional: “He needs to become a better shooter and free throw shooter. He either will or he won’t.” Scouts work very hard evaluating amateur and minor league talent across the country, so their collective insight into projecting a young hitter’s future is not to be dismissed. But…can we ever really know how a guy is going to react when thrown into the professional environment? A 95 MPH fastball with movement is a 95 MPH fastball with movement at any level. Plus speed, outstanding glove work, and the ability to miss bats are all translatable skills when honed properly. Hitting is an entirely different animal.
The possibility that Shumpert won’t hit enough to tap into his big raw power feels a lot more real now after a year of underwhelming junior college stats (.284/.348/.420 with 15 BB/51 K) than it did when his future as a hitter was, like all high school prospects, a larger unknown. Having written all this and dropped Shumpert way down on my personal rankings, I should be clear that I don’t think he’s a bad prospect nor do I believe the Braves made a bad move here. If anything, Atlanta getting him in the twenty-eighth round is a serious coup. What made Shumpert so appealing in the first place remains; his considerable physical gifts as outlined above remain present. We know more about his bat — or we think we know more, at least — and that has changed his overall future value, but that hardly makes investing in his development not worth it. It could just be that Shumpert will take time. Most twenty-eighth round picks aren’t afforded that luxury, but Shumpert is a talented enough guy that he should get what he needs in pro ball.
29.859 – OF Jackson Pokorney
Prospects like Jackson Pokorney are right at home in the twenty-ninth round. Athletic, speedy, physical, and still a bit raw, Pokorney was a star at Mater Dei HS (the Indiana one, not the California one…I had to check and recheck that myself a few times) in both baseball and football. The switch-hitter makes a lot more contact than you’d expect from such a late pick, so consider me bullish on his future as a hitter. I like this one.
30.889 – RHP Cameron Stanton
Cameron Stanton had a good year for St. Edward’s baseball: 8.07 K/9, 1.75 BB/9, 3.16 ERA. All fine marks on the surface. Unfortunately, two of those three stats were actually worse than the overall team performance on the year. As a pitching staff, Hilltopper pitchers (including Stanton) did this: 8.74 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, and 2.63 ERA. That doesn’t negate the nice work done by Stanton, but a little context never hurt anybody. When it comes to contextual production, consider Stanton the anti-Tucker Davidson.
32.949 – RHP Ryan Schlosser
I’m wasn’t happy I didn’t have anything on Ryan Schlosser in my notes. Then I realized he attended a junior college that I’ve literally never heard of and felt a tiny bit better. Schlosser, the pride of Century College (located in beautiful White Bear Lake, Minnesota) put up really good sophomore numbers for the Wood Ducks: 11.91 K/9 and 3.57 BB/9 in 68.0 IP. Schlosser is the first player from Century College drafted since 2013. The Braves selected Jared Dettmann that year. Hmm. It’s also worth noting (or not) that the Wood Ducks best hitter (arguably) was named Wes Anderson. Neat.
34.1009 – OF Jared James
Long Beach State transfer Jared James hit .312/.411/.494 with 32 BB/24 K and 14/18 SB in his senior season at Division II Cal Poly Pomona. He kept right on hitting as a pro. In a debut highlighted by a sensational 101 PA in Low-A, James hit a combined .300/.379/.420 with 21 BB/30 K in 207 AB. Can’t speak to anything but the production you see before you, but that’s impressive enough to at least get on the deepest depths of the prospect radar heading into 2017.
39.1159 – LHP Parker Danciu
Decent stuff (87-90 from the left side) with good size (6-3, 220) turned into pretty terrible junior year numbers (4.57 K/9 and 5.74 ERA in 84.2 IP) at Marshall. Then he signed a pro contract and got not terrible again: 7.89 K/9 and 2.43 ERA in 29.2 IP. Baseball is a funny game, they say. Parker Danciu is living proof.
Unsigned Prospects and Where You Can Find Them in 2017
Dylan Beasley (Berry), Dayton Tripp (Lipscomb), Zac Kristofak (Georgia), Andres Perez (North Georgia), Michael Gizzi (?), Handsome Monica (Louisiana), Cameron Jabara (Oregon), Josh Anthony (Auburn)
I can’t for the life of me figure out why this Josh Anthony story wasn’t picked up by any of the national draft/prospect writers…
Anthony confirmed to the Montgomery Advertiser that Atlanta executives called him Friday morning to say they could no longer honor their offer. Anthony said Braves officials informed his father that if they signed Anthony to the agreed upon amount that would put them over Major League Baseball’s bonus pool cap and force them to potentially lose a future draft pick.
“They told me that if they honored the deal then that would put them in the tax and so they couldn’t do it,” Anthony said. “I was ready to sign and they revoked the offer.”
I get that offers can be pulled at any time. I get that the draft rules put teams in crummy situations like this far too often. Still feels like a low thing for Atlanta to do. Maybe I’m wrong and there’s a lot more to it than I know. Optics look bad from here, though.
The original plan was to go team-by-team for the biggest and baddest conferences around, but the narratives that developed organically when compiling the overall Pac-12 prospect list were too good to ignore. Look at some of the decisions that teams will have to make on just the position player prospects in this conference this year…
Logan Ice OR Colby Woodmansee
Brett Cumberland OR Jeremy Martinez OR Brian Serven
Trever Morrison OR Tommy Edman
David Greer OR Eric Filia
Cody Ramer OR Mitchell Kranson OR Timmy Robinson
And then on the pitching side we start with what has to rank among the most fascinating trios of arms in any conference in college ball: Daulton Jefferies and Cal Quantrill and Matt Krook. All three guys have legitimate arguments for the top spot. It’s not a bad year for amateur baseball fans who have smartly opted to settle in the western part of the country. We’ll get back to those three co-headliners shortly (those more interested in the pitchers can skip to the bolded parenthetical below), but first let’s get into the hitters.
.365/.460/.533 – 22 BB/5 K
.360/.483/.697 – 20 BB/5 K
Top is Matt Thaiss this year, bottom is Logan Ice so far. It’s no wonder that a friend of mine regularly refers to Ice as “Pacific NW Thaiss.” That sounds so made up, but it’s not. Anyway, Ice is a really good prospect. He’s received some national acclaim this season, yet still strikes me as one of the draft’s most underrated college bats. There are no questions about his defense behind the plate – coming into the year many considered him to be a catch-and-throw prospect with a bat that might relegate him to backup work – and his power, while maybe not .700 SLG real, is real. I don’t think a late-first round selection is unrealistic, but I’ll hedge and call him a potential huge value pick at any point after the draft’s first day. I can’t wait to start stacking the college catching board; my hunch is that prospect who comes in tenth or so would be a top three player in most classes. My only concern for Ice – a stretch, admittedly – is that teams will put off drafting college catchers early because of the belief that they can wait and still get a good one later.
Those who prefer Colby Woodmansee to Ice as the Pac-12’s best position player prospect have an equally strong case. Like Ice, Woodmansee is a near-lock to remain at a premium defensive position in the pros with enough offensive upside to profile as a potential impact player at maturation. Early on the process there were some who questioned Woodmansee’s long-term defensive outlook – shortstops who are 6-3, 200 pounds tend to unfairly get mentally moved off the position to third, a weird bit of biased thinking that I’ve been guilty of in the past – but his arm strength, hands, and first-step quickness all should allow him to remain at his college spot for the foreseeable future. Offensively there may not be one particular thing he does great, but what he does well is more than enough. Woodmansee has average to above-average raw power and speed, lots of bat speed and athleticism, and solid plate discipline. For the exact opposite reason why I think Ice and others like him might slip some on draft day, the all-around average to above-average skill set of Woodmansee at shortstop, a position as shallow as any in this draft, should help him go off the board earlier than most might think.
The trio of catchers after Ice all offer something a little bit different; for that reason, I could see them ending up in any order on any random team’s draft board. Brett Cumberland primary claim to fame is and will be his bat. His hit tool is legit and his power is really appealing. He’s also been described to me as a guy who can be pitched to while also being the kind of smart, naturally gifted hitter who can then make adjustments on the fly. His glove is more “good enough” than good, but there’s enough there that you can work with him to make it work. Jeremy Martinez is another catcher who has been described to me as “good enough” defensively, but that’s an opinion my admittedly non-scout eyes don’t see. I wrote about him briefly last month…
I’ve long thought that Jeremy Martinez has been underrated as a college player, so I’m happy to get a few sentences off about how much I like him here. Martinez was born to catch with a reliable glove and accurate arm. His offensive game is equally well-rounded with the chance for an average hit tool and average raw power to go along with his standout approach. His ceiling may not be high enough for all teams to fall in love, but he’s as good a bet as any of the college catchers in this class to have a long big league career in some capacity or another.
Martinez might not be the most exciting catcher in this class, but he’s at or near the top in terms of well-roundedness for me. It’s an imperfect comp to be sure, but he reminds me some of a less athletic version of James McCann coming out of Arkansas. While some scouts disagree about the defensive utility of Cumberland and Martinez, there are no such rumblings about the glove and arm of Brian Serven. Blessed with an arm both strong and accurate, Serven’s strong hands and plus mobility behind the plate make him a defensive weapon. Whether or not he’ll keep hitting enough to play regularly remains an open question for me – all I have on him offensively are his numbers and that he’s got average or better raw power – but the present defensive value is enough to last a long time in pro ball.
Choosing between Trever Morrison or Tommy Edman might seem easy at first, but the two Pac-12 middle infield standouts are closer in value for me than one might expect. I like Morrison’s glove at short a lot and his physical gifts (above-average arm and speed) are impressive. I’m less sure about him hitting enough to profile as a regular than most. Edman’s bat is more my speed thanks to his strong hit tool, good understanding of the strike zone, and ability to make consistent contact even when down in the count. I’ve given in to those who have long tried to convince me he’s more second baseman than shortstop, but there’s still a part of me who thinks he’s good enough to play short. For a guy with realistic ceiling of big league utility man, I can more than live with that kind of defensive future. If I really stuck to my guns here then you’d see Edman over Morrison, but for now I’ll defer to the overwhelming consensus of smarter people out there who let me know (nicely, mostly) that I was nuts for considering it. I guess the big takeaway here for me is that either player would be great value at any point after the first five rounds.
I’ve lumped David Greer and Eric Filia together because both guys can really, really hit. I think both guys can work themselves up the minor league ladder based on the strength of their hit tool (plate discipline included) alone. Defensive questions for each hitter put a cap on their respective ceilings (Greer intrigues me defensively with his plus arm and experience at 1B, 2B, 3B, and in the OF; Filia seems like left field or first base all the way), but, man, can they both hit.
The last group is probably the weirdest: we have a utility guy finally hitting after three lackluster offensive seasons, a college baseball folk hero with a fascinating defensive profile, and a powerful, tooled-up outfielder who has made slow yet steady improvements over the years. Cody Ramer is an athletic second baseman/shortstop/third baseman/outfielder with average speed and some pop having a major offensive breakout in his final season in the desert. Mitchell Kranson impressed me as the rare college catcher capable of calling his own game; now that he’s been moved to third base, I don’t know what to make of his long-term defensive prospects. His high-contact approach still intrigues me, however. Timmy Robinson‘s tools are really impressive: above-average to plus raw power, average to above-average speed, above-average to plus arm, above-average to plus range, and all kinds of physical strength. That player sounds incredible, so it should be noted that getting all of his raw ability going at the same time and translating it to usable on-field skills has been a challenge. He’s gotten a little bit better every season and now looks to be one of the draft’s most intriguing senior-signs.
There are a ton of players uncovered above that deserve more space than they’ll wind up getting here between now and June. Aaron Knapp fascinates me as an athlete with easy center field range and impact speed, but with such little power that the profile might wind up shorting before he even gets a real chance in pro ball. Mark Karaviotis would have been much higher on this list coming into the year, but a lost junior season puts his stock in limbo. Corey Dempster is one of the many Pac-12 hitters with limited track records prior to 2016 that have come alive this season. His power/speed combination and ability to man center make him intriguing. Then there’s Darrell Miller, the UCLA catcher who would have added to the already stacked group of catchers in the conference if he would have stayed healthy. Even after missing this season with a labrum injury, it still might be worth it for area guys to gauge his interest in leaving college behind for the pros. Those four are just a small taste of the depth of the conference in 2016: there are dozens of other names outside of the top ten or so that deserve draft consideration. Fun year.
(Here is the stuff on Jefferies, Quantrill, and Krook mentioned in the introduction)
Jefferies, Quantrill, and Krook in some order. That’s the limit of what I know for sure about the top of the Pac-12 pitching prospect pile. I’m not sure you could come up with an order that I’d disagree with.
Jefferies is a rock-solid future big league starting pitcher. I love Daulton Jefferies. An overly enthusiastic but well-meaning friend comped Jefferies to Chris Archer after seeing him this past summer. That’s…rich. It’s not entirely crazy, though. Velocity-wise, at his best, Jefferies can sit 90-94 and touch 97. He’s been more frequently in the 88-92 band this spring (94 peak). He’s also focused far more on his low- to mid-80s slider than his mid- to upper-70s curve. I thought both had the potential to be above-average breaking balls at the big league level, but I can’t blame him for going all-in on his potentially devastating slider. Then there’s the compact, athletic delivery and plus fastball command and above-average mid-80s change-up that flashes plus and…well, you can see why he’d get such a lofty comp. Lack of size or not, Jefferies has the kind of stuff that could make him a number two starter if everything goes his way developmentally. That’s big time. High ceiling + high floor = premium pitching prospect. I think Jefferies draft floor is where Walker Buehler, a player that D1 Baseball comped to him earlier this year, landed last year. That would be pick 24 in the first round for those of you who haven’t committed Walker Buehler’s draft position to memory yet. A case could be made (and it kind of has above, right?) that slipping any further than that would be ridiculous value for his new pro team. I think he’s worth considering in the top ten depending on how the rest of the board shakes out.
On talent alone, Cal Quantrill deserves to be right there with Jefferies as a potential top ten overall pick contender. Last year’s Tommy John surgery and the subsequent lost time in 2016, however, complicate the matter, though it’s hard to say how much. Quantrill’s 77-81 MPH change-up is one of my favorite pitches in this entire class. Easy velocity (89-95, 96 peak), a pair of interesting breaking balls, all kinds of pitchability, and that change-up…what more could you want? Good health, I suppose. A few late season starts would go a very long way in easing the minds of big league scouting directors charged with making the decision whether or not to cut a multi-million dollar check (or cheque in the case of the Canadian born Quantrill) to the Stanford righthander. I recently wondered aloud about how teams will perceive Quantrill in this his draft year…
The attrition at the top of the college pitching pile has left Cal Quantrill, yet to pitch in 2016 as he recovers from last year’s Tommy John surgery, one of the college game’s most intriguing mound prospects. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, right? I wonder if the star student out of Stanford knew this and staged the whole elbow injury to allow time for his competition to implode all over the place. That’s a joke. Not a good one, but a joke all the same.
I also have said on the record that I’d consider taking him sight unseen (in 2016) with a pick just outside the draft’s top ten. You might say I’m bullish on Quantrill’s pro prospects.
And then there’s Matt Krook! I had him second only to Alec Hansen (whoops) in my overall college pitching rankings before the season and now he’s third in his own conference. You could look at that as me being wishy-washy (not really, but maybe), me not knowing what I was doing in the first place (always a possibility), or this year’s draft class being more talented than some would like you to believe (yes). Whatever the case may be, Krook remains a legitimate first round arm with as much upside as any college pitcher throwing. Here was the pre-season take that accompanied the aforementioned ranking…
This may be a touch more speculative that some of the other names on the list since Krook missed the 2015 season after Tommy John surgery, but I’m buying all the Krook shares I can right now. He came back and impressed on the Cape enough to warrant consideration as a potential 1-1 riser. There’s no squaring up his fastball and there’s more than enough offspeed (CB and CU) to miss bats (12 K/9 in 45 freshman innings). He’s not as physical as AJ Puk, but the more advanced secondaries give him the edge for now.
I stand by that today. His fastball velocity isn’t all the way back yet (more of a steady 88-92 than 90-94), but he still gets incredible movement on the pitch. His curve has morphed into something more like a slider (or something in-between), but remains a true plus offering. Both his command and his control remain works in progress as he pitches himself back into competitive shape. Picking Krook as early as I’d recommend would take a bit of a leap of faith in his command/control woes being remedied largely by the increased passage of time separating him from his surgery. Going Krook would not be for the faint of heart, but, hey, nothing venture nothing gained, right?
There’s a steep decline after those top three names, but worry not as there are still quality arms to be had scattered across the rest of the conference. Krook’s teammate with the Ducks, Cole Irvin, has seen his stuff rebound this year close to his own pre-TJ surgery levels. I was off Irvin early last season when he was more upper-80s with a loopy curve, but he is now capable of getting it back up to 92 (still sits 85-90) with a sharper upper-70s slider that complements his firmer than before curve and consistently excellent 78-81 change. It’s back of the rotation type starter stuff if it continues to come back. Ian Hamilton could have similar upside (or better) if you’re the type who believes in him as a starter at the next level. He’s got the offspeed stuff (above-average 80-86 SL that flashes plus and an average 80-84 CU) to go through a lineup multiple times. He’s also highly athletic. Those are the points in his favor if you like him as a starter. I’m willing to be talked into it, but the way his fastball plays up in short bursts (consistently 92-96, up to 99) as opposed to the 90-93 he sits as a starter has me still liking him more as a fireman out of the pen.
If it’s a true college reliever you want, then Stephen Nogosek out of Oregon is your best bet. He’s a little bit like Hamilton in that he’s got the raw stuff to start – an honest four-pitch mix seems wasted some in relief – but his command would make longer outings untenable at this time. As a reliever, however, he’s effectively wild. Pitching out of the pen also puts him on the short list of fastest potential movers. Chris Viall seems like another reliever all the way. With lots of heat (up to 96-97) and intimidating size (6-9, 230 pounds), he could be a good one.
A pair of seniors that have intrigued me for years have put it all together in their last year of eligibility. Kyle Davis, a prospect I once thought would wind up better as a catcher than as a pitcher, has compiled strong numbers since almost his first day on campus. As I’ve said a lot in the preceding paragraphs, a big point in his favor is that he has the requisite three to four pitches needed to start. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll continue to hold down a rotation spot in the pros, but it gives him a shot. Fellow senior Ryan Mason’s scouting dossier has always looked better than his peripherals: upper-80s heat (92 peak) with plus sink, a deceptive delivery, and lots of extension thanks to a 6-6, 215 pound frame should have resulted in better than a 3.69 K/9 last season. Of course, the ugliness of his peripherals was overshadowed by his consistently strong run prevention skills (2.97 ERA last season). It’s a really weird profile, but everything seems to have caught up this year: stuff, peripherals, and run prevention all are where you’d want them to be. I remain intrigued.
I forgot I had started going team-by-team before I went to my usual overarching view of the conference. Here’s what I had on Bobby Dalbec of Arizona…
Bobby Dalbec continues to confound. More and more people I’ve spoken to are becoming open to the idea of sending him out as a pitcher in pro ball. As frustrating as he can be at the plate, I don’t think I could throw his kind of power away that easily, even if only on a temporary basis. I also don’t think I’d touch him in the first five rounds. The comparison shared with me before the season to Chris Dominguez feels more and more prescient by the day.
I had Dominguez ranked 41st on my final board back in 2009 before he was drafted 86th overall by the Giants. I’m not sure what it says (if anything) about my own evolving view on prospecting or how the industry itself has changed or how the game has shifted, but I can say with 100% certainty that Dalbec won’t rank anywhere close to where Dominguez once landed on my personal ranks. I can also say with about 95% certainty that he won’t be drafted as high as Dominguez was in 2009. Of course, a player’s draft ranking ultimately is not about where he falls on the average of all teams’ boards but rather where he eventually falls on the board of the one team that drafts him. That’s where that 5% uncertainty comes in: all it takes is one team to look at Dalbec’s two clear plus tools (raw power, arm strength) and believe they can tweak his swing to make enough contact to allow his natural ability to shine through. His upside is very real, as is the possibility he tops out as an all-or-nothing AA power hitter. I’m out on him for now, but I understand the appeal. Chicks dig the long ball.
Then I started very briefly in on Arizona State…
David Greer is one of college baseball’s best, most underrated hitters. I’d put his hit tool on the short list of best in this college class. With that much confidence in him offensively, the only real question that needs to be answered is what position he’ll play as a pro. Right now it appears that a corner outfield spot is the most likely destination, but his prior experience at both second and third will no doubt intrigue teams willing to trade a little defense for some offense at those spots.
RJ Ybarra has had a good year, a bad year, a good year, and is now in the midst of another bad year. By that logic, teams should be hot to draft him so that he has a big full season debut in 2017, right?
And then I gave up on the team-by-team approach and went back to the usual way and here we are.
- Oregon State JR C Logan Ice
- Arizona State JR SS/2B Colby Woodmansee
- California SO C Brett Cumberland
- USC JR C/1B Jeremy Martinez
- Oregon State JR SS Trever Morrison
- Stanford JR 2B/SS Tommy Edman
- Arizona JR 3B/RHP Bobby Dalbec
- Arizona State JR C Brian Serven
- Arizona State JR OF/1B David Greer
- UCLA rSR OF Eric Filia
- Arizona SR 2B/SS Cody Ramer
- California SR 3B/C Mitchell Kranson
- UCLA JR OF/2B Luke Persico
- USC SR OF Timmy Robinson
- Oregon JR OF Austin Grebeck
- California JR OF Aaron Knapp
- Oregon JR SS/2B Mark Karaviotis
- Utah SR SS/2B Cody Scaggari
- Arizona SR OF Zach Gibbons
- USC JR OF Corey Dempster
- USC SR OF David Oppenheim
- UCLA rJR C Darrell Miller
- Arizona SR 1B/OF Ryan Aguilar
- Arizona SR OF Justin Behnke
- UCLA JR OF Brett Stephens
- California SR OF Devin Pearson
- Stanford JR OF Jackson Klein
- Oregon SR 1B/OF Phillipe Craig-St. Louis
- Oregon rSO OF/1B AJ Balta
- Oregon SR 3B/SS Matt Eureste
- Oregon JR OF Nick Catalano
- Oregon State JR 3B Caleb Hamilton
- USC rJR SS Reggie Southall
- UCLA JR OF Kort Peterson
- Utah SR 1B Kellen Marruffo
- Stanford SR 1B/C Austin Barr
- California SR OF/1B Nick Halamandaris
- USC SR OF/1B AJ Ramirez
- USC rSO 2B/SS Frankie Rios
- Oregon State JR OF Kyle Nobach
- Oregon State JR 1B/OF Billy King
- UCLA rSR OF Christoph Bono
- Utah rJR 3B Dallas Carroll
- Washington JR OF Jack Meggs
- Washington JR 1B Gage Matuszak
- Washington State JR OF Cameron Frost
- California rSR 1B Brenden Farney
- UCLA SR 2B Trent Chatterdon
- Washington JR SS Chris Baker
- Arizona State SR C RJ Ybarra
- California JR 2B/OF Robbie Tenerowicz
- Arizona JR SS Louis Boyd
- California rSR OF Brian Celsi
- Utah SR 2B Kody Davis
- Utah SR C AJ Young
- Washington JR OF MJ Hubbs
- Stanford SR OF Jonny Locher
- Washington JR OF Josh Cushing
- Utah JR OF Josh Rose
- Utah JR SS Ellis Kelly
- California JR RHP Daulton Jefferies
- Stanford JR RHP Cal Quantrill
- Oregon rSO LHP Matt Krook
- Oregon rJR LHP Cole Irvin
- Washington State JR RHP Ian Hamilton
- Oregon JR RHP Stephen Nogosek
- Stanford JR RHP Chris Viall
- USC SR RHP Kyle Davis
- Arizona State JR RHP Hever Bueno
- California SR RHP Ryan Mason
- Arizona State JR RHP Seth Martinez
- USC JR RHP/3B Jeff Paschke
- USC JR LHP Bernardo Flores
- UCLA JR RHP Grant Dyer
- Stanford JR RHP Tyler Thorne
- UCLA rJR RHP Tucker Forbes
- USC SR RHP Brooks Kriske
- Arizona State JR RHP Eder Erives
- Oregon State JR RHP Jake Thompson
- Oregon State SR RHP Travis Eckert
- Arizona SR LHP Cody Moffett
- USC rJR RHP Joe Navilhon
- Arizona SR RHP Nathan Bannister
- Washington SR RHP Troy Rallings
- Arizona JR RHP Austin Schnabel
- Washington SR RHP Spencer Jones
- Oregon State JR RHP John Pomeroy
- UCLA rJR RHP Nick Kern
- Oregon State rJR LHP Max Engelbrekt
- Stanford SR RHP Daniel Starwalt
- California JR RHP Alex Schick
- USC SR RHP Brent Wheatley
- Washington JR RHP Westin Wuethrich
- USC SR LHP Marc Huberman
- Washington SR RHP Alex Nesbitt
- California JR RHP Trevin Haseltine
- Stanford JR RHP/3B Brett Hanewich
- USC JR LHP/OF Andrew Wright
- Utah SR RHP Dalton Carroll
- Washington SR LHP Will Ballowe
- Arizona State SR RHP Eric Melbostad
- Arizona rSO LHP Rio Gomez
- Washington SR RHP Ryan Schmitten
- Utah JR LHP Dylan Drachler
- UCLA JR RHP Moises Ceja
- UCLA JR RHP Scott Burke
- Washington JR LHP Henry Baker
- UCLA rJR LHP Hunter Virant
- Arizona rSO RHP Robby Medel
- Arizona JR RHP Kevin Ginkel
- UCLA rJR RHP Chase Radan
- Stanford JR LHP Chris Castellanos
- Utah SR RHP Nolan Stouder
- Arizona JR LHP JC Cloney
- Oregon JR RHP Cooper Stiles
- Arizona State SR RHP/2B Jordan Aboites
rSO LHP Rio Gomez (2016)
SR RHP Nathan Bannister (2016)
SR LHP Cody Moffett (2016)
JR RHP Austin Schnabel (2016)
rSO RHP Robby Medel (2016)
JR RHP Kevin Ginkel (2016)
JR LHP JC Cloney (2016)
JR 3B/RHP Bobby Dalbec (2016)
SR OF Zach Gibbons (2016)
SR OF Justin Behnke (2016)
SR 2B/SS Cody Ramer (2016)
SR 1B/OF Ryan Aguilar (2016)
JR SS Louis Boyd (2016)
JR 1B Michael Hoard (2016)
SO RHP Matt Hartman (2017)
SO LHP Cameron Ming (2017)
SO OF Jared Oliva (2017)
SO 1B/OF JJ Matijevic (2017)
SO C Ryan Haug (2017)
FR RHP Austin Rubick (2018)
FR RHP Cody Deason (2018)
FR RHP Michael Flynn (2018)
FR LHP/OF Randy Labaut (2018)
FR OF Alfonso Rivas (2018)
FR C Cesar Salazar (2018)
High Priority Follows: Rio Gomez, Nathan Bannister, Cody Moffett, Austin Schnabel, Robby Medel, Kevin Ginkel, JC Cloney, Bobby Dalbec, Zach Gibbons, Justin Behnke, Cody Ramer, Ryan Aguilar, Louis Boyd, Michael Hoard
JR RHP Hever Bueno (2016)
JR RHP Seth Martinez (2016)
JR RHP Eder Erives (2016)
SR RHP Eric Melbostad (2016)
SR RHP/2B Jordan Aboites (2016)
JR SS/2B Colby Woodmansee (2016)
JR OF/1B David Greer (2016)
SR C RJ Ybarra (2016)
JR C Brian Serven (2016)
SR OF/1B Chris Beall (2016)
JR OF Daniel Williams (2016)
JR C Zach Cerbo (2016)
SO RHP Ryan Hingst (2017)
SO LHP Tucker Baca (2017)
SO LHP/OF Andrew Shaps (2017)
SO LHP Reagan Todd (2017)
SO RHP Grant Schneider (2017)
SO LHP Eli Lingos (2017)
SO OF Coltin Gerhart (2017)
SO SS/3B Ryan Lillard (2017)
SO OF/1B Sebastian Zawada (2017)
SO 2B Andrew Snow (2017)
FR RHP Giovanni Lopez (2018)
FR RHP Garvin Alston (2018)
FR RHP Fitz Stadler (2018)
FR RHP Liam Jenkins (2018)
FR LHP Connor Higgins (2018)
FR LHP Zach Dixon (2018)
FR OF Tyler Williams (2018)
FR OF Gage Canning (2018)
High Priority Follows: Hever Bueno, Seth Martinez, Eder Erives, Eric Melbostad, Jordan Aboites, Colby Woodmansee, David Greer, RJ Ybarra, Brian Serven, Daniel Williams, Zach Cerbo
JR RHP Daulton Jefferies (2016)
JR RHP Alex Schick (2016)
SR RHP Ryan Mason (2016)
rJR RHP Jordan Talbot (2016)
JR RHP Trevin Haseltine (2016)
rSR RHP Keaton Siomkin (2016)
SR RHP/C Jesse Kay (2016)
JR OF Aaron Knapp (2016)
JR 2B/OF Robbie Tenerowicz (2016)
SR 3B/C Mitchell Kranson (2016)
rSR OF Brian Celsi (2016)
SR OF Devin Pearson (2016)
SR OF/1B Nick Halamandaris (2016)
SO C Brett Cumberland (2016)
rSR 1B Brenden Farney (2016)
SO RHP Jeff Bain (2017)
SO LHP Matt Ladrech (2017)
SO RHP Erik Martinez (2017)
SO SS Preston Grand Pre (2017)
SO 3B Denis Karas (2017)
FR RHP/OF Tanner Dodson (2018)
FR RHP Jake Matulovich (2018)
FR RHP Aaron Shortridge (2018)
FR RHP Connor Jackson (2018)
FR 2B/SS Ripken Reyes (2018)
FR OF Lorenzo Hampton (2018)
FR OF Jeffrey Mitchell (2018)
FR OF Jonah Davis (2018)
FR C Tyrus Greene (2018)
FR OF Cole Lemmel (2018)
High Priority Follows: Daulton Jefferies, Alex Schick, Ryan Mason, Trevin Haseltine, Aaron Knapp, Robbie Tenerowicz, Mitchell Kranson, Brian Celsi, Devin Pearson, Nick Halamandaris, Brett Cumberland, Brenden Farney
rJR LHP Cole Irvin (2016)
rSO LHP Matt Krook (2016)
JR RHP Stephen Nogosek (2016)
JR RHP Cooper Stiles (2016)
JR OF Austin Grebeck (2016)
JR OF Nick Catalano (2016):
JR SS/2B Mark Karaviotis (2016)
rSO OF/1B AJ Balta (2016)
SR 1B/OF Phillipe Craig-St. Louis (2016)
SR 3B/SS Matt Eureste (2016)
SO LHP David Peterson (2017)
SO RHP Brac Warren (2017)
SO C Tim Susnara (2017)
SO OF Jakob Goldfarb (2017)
SO SS/2B Daniel Patzlaff (2017)
rFR C/OF Slade Heggen (2017)
rFR SS Carson Breshears (2017)
SO INF Kyle Kasser (2017)
FR RHP Isaiah Carranza (2018)
FR RHP Cody Deason (2018)
FR RHP Jacob Bennett (2018)
FR RHP/C Parker Kelly (2018)
FR RHP/INF Matt Mercer (2018)
FR SS/2B Travis Moniot (2018)
FR 3B Matt Kroon (2018)
High Priority Follows: Cole Irvin, Matt Krook, Stephen Nogosek, Cooper Stiles, Austin Grebeck, Nick Catalano, Mark Karaviotis, AJ Balta, Phillipe Craig-St. Louis, Matt Eureste
SR RHP Travis Eckert (2016)
JR RHP John Pomeroy (2016)
rJR LHP Max Engelbrekt (2016)
JR RHP Jake Thompson (2016)
JR SS Trever Morrison (2016)
JR C Logan Ice (2016)
JR 3B Caleb Hamilton (2016)
JR OF Kyle Nobach (2016)
JR 1B/OF Billy King (2016)
SO RHP Drew Rasmussen (2017)
SO RHP Mitch Hickey (2017)
SO RHP Luke Heimlich (2017)
rFR LHP Christian Martinek (2017)
SO LHP Ryan Mets (2017
SO 1B/C KJ Harrison (2017)
SO 2B/SS Christian Donahue (2017)
SO OF Elliott Cary (2017)
SO 3B/SS Joe Gillette (2017)
SO SS Michael Gretler (2017)
FR LHP Eric Parnow (2018)
FR LHP Jordan Britton (2018)
FR SS Cadyn Grenier (2018)
FR SS Nick Madrigal (2018)
FR OF Steven Kwan (2018)
FR OF Trevor Larnach (2018)
FR 3B Bryce Fehmel (2018)
FR C Alex O’Rourke (2018)
High Priority Follows: Travis Eckert, John Pomeroy, Max Engelbrekt, Jake Thompson, Trever Morrison, Logan Ice, Caleb Hamilton, Billy King
SR RHP Brent Wheatley (2016)
SR LHP Marc Huberman (2016)
SR RHP Brooks Kriske (2016
JR LHP Bernardo Flores (2016)
rJR RHP Joe Navilhon (2016)
SR RHP Kyle Davis (2016)
JR LHP/OF Andrew Wright (2016)
JR RHP/3B Jeff Paschke (2016)
JR C/1B Jeremy Martinez (2016)
SR OF Timmy Robinson (2016)
rJR SS Reggie Southall (2016)
SR OF David Oppenheim (2016)
SR OF/1B AJ Ramirez (2016)
JR OF Corey Dempster (2016)
rSO 2B/SS Frankie Rios (2016)
JR C AJ Fritts (2016)
SO RHP Mitch Hart (2017)
SO RHP Brad Wegman (2017)
rFR RHP Bryce Dyrda (2017)
SO RHP Mason Perryman (2017)
SO 3B/SS Adalberto Carrillo (2017)
SO SS Angelo Armenta (2017)
SO INF Stephen Dubb (2017)
FR RHP Marrick Crouse (2018)
FR RHP Soloman Bates (2018)
FR LHP Quentin Longrie (2018)
FR 1B Dillon Paulson (2018)
FR INF Lars Nootbaar (2018)
FR C/RHP Cameron Stubbs (2018)
High Priority Follows: Brent Wheatley, Marc Huberman, Brooks Kriske, Bernardo Flores, Joe Navilhon, Kyle Davis, Andrew Wright, Jeff Paschke, Jeremy Martinez, Timmy Robinson, Reggie Southall, David Oppenheim, AJ Ramirez, Corey Dempster, Frankie Rios
JR RHP Cal Quantrill (2016)
JR RHP Chris Viall (2016)
SR RHP Daniel Starwalt (2016)
JR RHP Tyler Thorne (2016)
JR LHP Chris Castellanos (2016)
rSR LHP John Hochstatter (2016)
JR RHP/3B Brett Hanewich (2016)
SR OF Jonny Locher (2016)
SR SS Bobby Zarubin (2016)
JR OF Jackson Klein (2016)
JR 2B/SS Tommy Edman (2016)
SR 1B/C Austin Barr (2016)
JR C Alex Dunlap (2016)
FR RHP Tristan Beck (2017)
SO RHP Keith Weisenberg (2017)
SO RHP Colton Hock (2017)
SO LHP Andrew Summerville (2017)
SO LHP John Henry Styles (2017)
SO LHP/OF Quinn Brodey (2017)
SO C Bryce Carter (2017)
SO SS/2B Beau Branton (2017)
SO 3B Mikey Diekroeger (2017)
SO SS Jesse Kuet (2017)
SO OF/1B Matt Winaker (2017)
FR LHP Kris Bubic (2018)
FR RHP Ben Baggett (2018)
FR SS Nico Hoerner (2018)
FR OF Brandon Wulff (2018)
FR OF/1B Nickolas Oar (2018)
FR OF Alec Wilson (2018)
FR SS Peter McEvoy (2018)
FR SS Duke Kinamon (2018)
FR 3B Nick Bellafronto (2018)
High Priority Follows: Cal Quantrill, Chris Viall, Daniel Starwalt, Tyler Thorne, Chris Castellanos, John Hochstatter, Brett Hanewich, Jonny Locher, Jackson Klein, Tommy Edman, Austin Barr, Alex Dunlap
JR RHP Grant Dyer (2016)
rJR RHP Tucker Forbes (2016)
rJR LHP Hunter Virant (2016)
rJR RHP Nick Kern (2016)
rJR RHP Chase Radan (2016)
JR RHP Scott Burke (2016)
JR RHP Moises Ceja (2016)
JR OF/2B Luke Persico (2016)
rSR OF Eric Filia (2016)
JR OF Kort Peterson (2016)
rSR OF Christoph Bono (2016)
JR OF Brett Stephens (2016)
rJR C Darrell Miller (2016)
SR 2B Trent Chatterdon (2016)
SR 2B/OF Brett Urabe (2016)
SO RHP Griffin Canning (2017)
SO RHP Matt Trask (2017)
SO RHP Jake Bird (2017)
rFR RHP Nathan Hadley (2017)
rFR LHP Garrett Barker (2017)
rFR 1B Zander Clarke (2017)
rFR SS Scott Jarvis (2017)
SO SS/2B Nick Valaika (2017)
SO 3B/1B Sean Bouchard (2017)
FR RHP Kyle Molnar (2018)
FR LHP Justin Hooper (2018)
FR RHP Brian Gadsby (2018)
FR RHP Jonathan Olsen (2018)
FR RHP Jack Ralston (2018)
FR OF Daniel Amaral (2018)
FR INF Dayton Provost (2018)
FR 1B Jake Pries (2018)
FR OF Jordan Myrow (2018)
FR C Jake Hirabayshi (2018)
High Priority Follows: Grant Dyer, Tucker Forbes, Hunter Virant, Nick Kern, Chase Radan, Scott Burke, Moises Ceja, Luke Persico, Eric Filia, Kort Peterson, Christoph Bono, Brett Stephens, Darrell Miller, Trent Chatterdon, Brett Urabe
SR LHP Will Ballowe (2016)
JR RHP Westin Wuethrich (2016)
SR RHP Ryan Schmitten (2016)
SR RHP Alex Nesbitt (2016)
SR RHP Troy Rallings (2016)
SR RHP Spencer Jones (2016)
JR LHP Henry Baker (2016)
JR OF Jack Meggs (2016)
JR 1B Gage Matuszak (2016)
JR OF MJ Hubbs (2016)
JR OF Josh Cushing (2016)
JR SS Chris Baker (2016)
SO RHP Noah Bremer (2017)
SO 3B Nyles Nygaard (2017)
SO C Joey Morgan (2017)
FR RHP Joe DeMers (2018)
FR SS/2B AJ Graffanino (2018)
FR C Willie MacIver (2018):
FR OF Rex Stephan (2018)
FR 3B/OF Peyton Lacoste (2018)
FR 2B Dallas Tessar (2018)
FR 2B/OF Karl Kani (2018)
High Priority Follows: Will Ballowe, Westin Wuethrich, Ryan Schmitten, Alex Nesbitt, Troy Rallings, Spencer Jones, Henry Baker, Jack Meggs, Gage Matuszak, MJ Hubbs, Josh Cushing, Chris Baker
JR RHP Ian Hamilton (2016)
JR LHP Layne Bruner (2016)
JR OF Cameron Frost (2016)
rJR 2B Shea Donlin (2016)
rJR OF Trek Stemp (2016)
SO RHP Ryan Walker (2017)
SO LHP Scotty Sunitsch (2017)
SO RHP Colby Nealy (2017)
rFR RHP Nick Leonard (2017)
SO INF Shane Matheny (2017)
SO OF Derek Chapman (2017)
SO C/OF JJ Hancock (2017)
FR RHP Parker McFadden (2018)
FR RHP Ryan Ward (2018)
FR SS Justin Harrer (2018)
High Priority Follows: Ian Hamilton, Cameron Frost, Trek Stemp
SR RHP Dalton Carroll (2016)
rJR LHP Hunter Rodriguez (2016)
SR RHP Nolan Stouder (2016)
JR LHP Dylan Drachler (2016)
SR C AJ Young (2016)
JR SS Ellis Kelly (2016)
SR SS/2B Cody Scaggari (2016)
rJR 3B Dallas Carroll (2016)
SR 2B Kody Davis (2016)
SR OF Wyler Smith (2016)
SR 1B Kellen Marruffo (2016)
JR OF Josh Rose (2016)
JR C Max Schuman (2016)
SO LHP Josh Lapiana (2017)
SO RHP Tanner Thomas (2017)
SO RHP Andre Jackson (2017)
SO RHP/OF Jayson Rose (2017)
FR RHP Riley Ottesen (2018)
FR OF DaShawn Keirsey (2018)
FR C Zach Moeller (2018)
High Priority Follows: Dalton Carroll, Hunter Rodriguez, Nolan Stouder, Dylan Drachler, AJ Young, Ellis Kelly, Cody Scaggari, Dallas Carroll, Kody Davis, Wyler Smith, Kellen Marruffo, Josh Rose, Max Schurman
It’s Monday and I’m behind on some of the conference “preview” stuff I want to publish, so let’s take a quick look instead at some of the country’s top college hitters so far in 2016. There are an infinite number of ways to approach a topic like this, so I tried to make things easy on myself by coming up with some rules to make it manageable.
First, I used college stats from Friday to sort players into categories. That gave me a one-stop shop for all my stat needs, but it necessitated a look at individual team sites last night to update the numbers to get the most recent information. That’s why you’ll see some inconsistencies between the categories and the stats of the players found under each. Secondly, I decided to focus only on draft-eligible players. That eliminated most sophomores and all freshmen. Those guys will get their fair shake in the years to come. Finally, in what may seem like a direct contradiction to the above at first, I made the cruel executive decision to skip seniors for now. I promise that they’ll get their due in an exercise similar to this closer to the draft, but for now I wanted to hone in on the players seen as better prospects by the majority. I love me a good senior-sign, but that extra year of experience gives them a bit of an unfair statistical boost. So only juniors and draft-eligible sophomores for now.
OBP over .500 and SLG over .700
C/1B Jameson Fisher (Southeastern Louisiana) – .521/.626/.872 with 25 BB/10 K and 6/11 SB in 94 AB
C/1B Zack Collins (Miami) – .416/.581/.688 – with 34 BB/16 K in 77 AB
OF Kyle Lewis (Mercer) – .426/.555/.843 – with 33 BB/17 K and 4/7 SB in 108 AB
OF Adam Groesbeck (Air Force) – .447/.520/.671 with 11 BB/8 K and 12/14 SB in 85 AB
C Logan Ice (Oregon State) – .389/.495/.792 with 14 BB/3 K and 1/1 SB in 72 AB
C Brett Cumberland (California) – .425/.552/.904 with 15 BB/18 K and 3/3 SB in 73 AB
OF Anfernee Grier (Auburn) – .442/.535/.692 with 19 BB/23 K and 14/17 SB in 120 AB
OF Tyler Ramirez (North Carolina) – .394/.508/.670 with 22 BB/21 K and 6/9 SB in 94 AB
1B Dre Gleason (Austin Peay) – .390/.487/.680 with 17 BB/24 K in 100 AB
This is the category you want to be in as a hitter. It’s a spin-off of the .600+ SLG and BB> K group I had last year. On-base skills plus power potential equals big money come draft day. Tools will always matter, but results like the ones these players are putting up will get your foot in the door even if some scouts are dubious about other aspects of your game. Luckily, many of the names on this list are likely very familiar as big-time draft prospects who combine stellar performances with big league caliber tool sets.
I’m not sure anybody doubted Jameson Fisher’s bat coming into this season, but just in case he’s gone out and picked up where he left off in his last healthy season (2014)…and then some. We’re talking a 100 AB or so sample for all of the players listed, so let’s get that caveat out of the way right now. Still, Fisher’s start to the season has been positively Bonds-ian. I haven’t heard anything about his defense this season, but I do know scouts will want to see him behind the plate a little bit more before confidently projecting him as a pro-caliber defender. If he keeps hitting like he has, however, he might get himself into the top few round conversation much like the player one spot below him on the list. I still think Zack Collins is a catcher and I still think he should be talked about as a potential option for the Phillies at 1-1. Same thing with Kyle Lewis, minus the whole catching thing.
Adam Groesbeck, known more for his speed than his potent power/patience blend coming the season, has to be in the top ten round mix at this point. Logan Ice and Brett Cumberland are Pac-12 catchers with top two round bonafides. This class and catchers, man. It’s really unbelievable. Anfernee Grier has gotten some first round buzz of late and while I’m not sure I’d go that high on him yet, he’s certainly holding up his end of the bargain here in 2016. Tyler Ramirez could get dinged some by being an undersized tweener, but teams that believe in him in center should like the all-around offensive profile that comes with it. I don’t have much of a read on what those outside my own bubble think of Dre Gleason. I could see him as a surprising inclusion in the latter half of the draft’s single-digit rounds or being a mid- to late-round pick that winds up going back to school in an attempt to raise his stock as a 2017 senior-sign. I don’t know if teams are buying his bat as real just yet; hopefully he keeps hitting and quiets the doubters.
If we tease out the members who lost their spot over the weekend, we’re left with just three players currently in the .500/.700 club: Jameson Fisher, Kyle Lewis, and Brett Cumberland. Not a bad trio.
OBP over .500
2B Nick Solak (Louisville) – .455/.564/.623 with 19 BB/8 K and 7/8 SB in 77 AB
1B Carmen Benedetti (Michigan) – .372/.526/.570 with 24 BB/11 K and 6/7 SB in 86 AB
3B Sheldon Neuse (Oklahoma) – .392/.500/.686 with 22 BB/22 K and 8/8 SB in 102 AB
2B Cavan Biggio (Notre Dame) – .330/.527/.516 with 34 BB/14 K and 8/8 SB in 91 AB
2B/3B Nick Senzel (Tennessee) – .384/.504/.646 with 24 BB/12 K and 10/11 SB in 99 AB
Nick Solak can flat hit. I’d take him on my team anytime. He’s likely locked in at second in the infield, so I don’t know how high that profile can rise but I have a hunch he’ll be higher on my rankings than he winds up getting drafted in June. I’m more than all right with that. I have a hunch that Carmen Benedetti will go out as a pitcher in pro ball, but I like his bat too much to put it on ice. I like letting two-way players with split-decision futures start as hitters with pitching as a fallback rather than the other way around. Personal preference, obviously, but I think it’s easier to pick pitching back up on the fly. Sheldon Neuse is a deep fly or two away from being in the .500/.700 club. A lot has gone wrong for Oklahoma prospects this year, but Neuse has taken a step forward both at the plate and in the field. I think he’s solidly in the second round mix. Same for Cavan Biggio, the top-ranked college hitter on my way too early 2016 college preview back from March 2015. He was one spot ahead of Neuse. Before I start patting myself on the back too hard — something I really shouldn’t be doing in the first place considering that Biggio and Neuse, much as I love both, aren’t on anybody’s board as the top two college hitters — the next three hitters were Ryan Boldt, Nick Banks, and Chris Okey. Win some, lose some. Nick Senzel has been doing a lot of winning of late. I don’t know if Baseball America’s infatuation with him is more about them or about what they are hearing from big league front offices (my guess is the former in this case), but either way he’s a damn fine player and a legitimate top ten type. I’ve taken to comparing him to Anthony Rendon. That’s pretty special.
SLG over .700
OF Heath Quinn (Samford) – .330/.455/.679 with 22 BB/27 K
Like Neuse just missing the cutoff for .500/.700 by a few bombs, Quinn came into the weekend in need of just a few extra trips to first base (or any other base for that matter) to push his OBP over .500. Along the way his slugging dipped below the .700 line, but we’ll still count it since I used Friday’s numbers to originally sort (through the NCAA stats page) despite displaying stats as of the end of the weekend (via the more quickly updated team sites). Quinn is a physical 6-3, 220 pound outfielder with speed, power, and a solid approach. I’ve heard some speculate that he’s hurt some by the overwhelming presence of Kyle Lewis in his conference, but I think that’s nuts. There’s plenty of scouting love to go around, and the more general exposure the SoCon gets, the better it is for every team and every player.
The 2016 MLB Draft will be here before we know it, so that can only mean one thing: it’s MOCK DRAFT season. It’s been a few years since I published a mock draft around here, but I figured it was finally time to get back in the game. Of course, since I can’t offer much in the way of insider intel — I’m not BA-era peak Jim Callis over here — putting together a mock would be pretty much pointless. With the proper analysis attached to each pick mock drafts can be fun and interesting reads, not to mention a great way of exposing casual fans — the number of people who Google “2016 mlb mock draft” that find this site is insane, at least relative to the four people who read on their own volition otherwise — to players they might have not yet heard of. I might attempt a mock like that between now and June. Or not. Either way, this ain’t it.
So until then (or not) we’ll have some fun and take the idea of a mock draft to the logical extreme. If “mock” means to make something seem laughably unreal or impossible, let’s make our mock draft as unreal or impossible as we can. Our second edition of this 2016 MLB Mock Draft is based on the top 34 teams (by pre-tournament seeding) in this year’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. The top 34 schools (listed below) are the only universities that teams were allowed to draft from in this mock. Unlike last week’s, however, there is no limit to how many players can be drafted off of any one school. That means some teams get nobody selected while others have multiple picks to celebrate. It’s not fair, but it’s life. Here were the universities eligible for this mock listed in descending order based on their pre-tournament seeding…
32. St. Joseph’s
29. Texas Tech
28. Oregon State
24. Seton Hall
22. Notre Dame
16. Iowa State
12. Texas A&M
10. Miami (FL)
9. West Virginia
5. Michigan State
2. North Carolina
Any 2016 MLB draft-eligible player from any of those schools is up for grabs. Let’s get mocking…
1 – Philadelphia Phillies – Miami C Zack Collins
The Phillies would be tasked from picking from an impressive group of college talent if forced to comply with these ridiculous rules. Three of the arms rumored to be in the 1-1 mix in the real world — Matt Krook, Alec Hansen, and Connor Jones — would all be available to them thanks to the impressive basketball being played at Oregon, Oklahoma, and Virginia, respectively. Interestingly enough, all three are plagued with the same general concern: wildness. Jones has the most complete résumé and the least overall concern about his control (4.03 BB/9 last year, down to 2.11 BB/9 so far this year). Much has been made about Hansen’s consistently inconsistent start (6.99 BB/9) while Krook’s wild ways (7.92 BB/9) have largely been glossed over. Part of that is likely due to giving Krook an early season mulligan as he makes his way back from last year’s Tommy John surgery and part is probably due to Hansen being the higher profile player nationally, but the fact that some of the most talented arms in this college class come with major control (and command and consistency and changeup) questions can’t be ignored. The risk with either at 1-1 is just too high. As mentioned, Jones is the less risky play, but, as so often happens, comes with a little less upside. Much as I like Jones, if I’m going with a college arm with the first overall pick in a draft I want a guy I can confidently project as a potential ace. He may show enough to reach that point in the coming months, but as of today I can’t do it.
With the top pitchers out of the running, Collins becomes the clear pick. His bat is too special to pass up. The pick is made easier when you factor in the Phillies being particularly deep as an organization behind the plate. With Andrew Knapp and Jorge Alfaro set to begin the year at AAA and AA respectively, there would be little pressure for the Phils to play Collins as a catcher if they deemed him unlikely to remain there over the long haul. Ideally he’d impress as a catcher and they’d have the great eventual problem of having too many catchers — a predicted problem for hundreds of teams throughout the history of the game that has not once come to fruition — but shifting him to first and letting him know his job is to hit, hit, and hit some more isn’t the worst idea in the world. Knapp/Alfaro, Collins, Kingery, Crawford, Franco, Randolph, Herrera/Quinn, and Williams may not quite rival the Cubs young core, but it’s not half-bad either.
(I have this very underdeveloped idea about how taking Collins at 1-1 in a real draft wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world based on a comparison of using a top ten pick in the NFL Draft on a running back like Ezekiel Elliott. New conventional wisdom says you don’t draft a 1B or a HB early in the draft because you can find good ones later on, but if it’s a guy who projects to be well above-average at the position and a long-term fixture for you that you don’t have to worry about replacing otherwise…then you have to at least consider it, right? I say this as a dumb Eagles fan who has convinced himself that Elliott with the eighth pick is an attractive option depending on who else is there. With no clear cut college player emerging at 1-1 besides Corey Ray and Kyle Lewis, maybe Collins isn’t the worst idea in the world. I know I’m out on an island with that one, but so be it.)
2 – Cincinnati Reds – Oregon LHP Matt Krook
Everything written about Krook above still applies. He’s been very wild, his command still isn’t back to his pre-injury self, and his velocity (topping at 92, down from his younger peak of 95) remains a work in progress. But he’s still a lefty with a devastating slider, good size (6-3, 200), and a history of missing bats (12.00 K/9 in 2014, 13.33 K/9 this year). When part of the reason for the walks can be explained by throwing a ball that just moves so damn much naturally, it’s a little bit easier to take. At his best (healthiest), Krook features three clearly above-average pitches and the wise beyond his year’s mound savvy to allow you to dream on him heading a rotation for a long time. Adding him to Stephenson, Reed (who Krook shares some similar traits with), and Garrett (among others) would be a lot of fun.
3 – Atlanta Braves – Virginia RHP Connor Jones
Krook to the Braves would have made more sense, what with MLB’s secret mandate that Atlanta collect as many Tommy John reclamation projects as possible. Maybe having Hansen fall past them is a blessing for his formerly tight right forearm. As it is, Jones gets the call. A consistent performer like Jones with a ready-made big league out-pitch (mid-80s cut-slider) would serve as a nice balance to the mix of boom/bust pitching prospects acquired by Atlanta over the past year or two.
4 – Colorado Rockies – Oklahoma RHP Alec Hansen
Because taking just one top-four righthander from Oklahoma within a five year stretch just isn’t enough. Hansen’s fastball is an explosive enough pitch that maybe he’d be a good fit for Coors Field.
5 – Milwaukee Brewers – Virginia C Matt Thaiss
Not everybody is convinced that Thaiss is the real deal, but I am. His one big remaining question heading into the year (defense) has been answered in a decidedly positive manner this spring. He showed enough in high school to garner Brian McCann comps from Baseball America, he hit as a sophomore, and he’s off to a blistering start (including a nifty 15 BB/2 K ratio) in 2016. He’s going early in this draft due in part to our odd rules, but he’s a first round selection on merit. The Brewers have done an excellent job in the early stages of their rebuild and adding a backstop like Thaiss to push Jacob Nottingham (and perhaps make trading Jonathan Lucroy easier to sell to the fans) gives them even more options going forward.
6 – Oakland Athletics – California RHP Daulton Jefferies
A high performing college player who defies conventional scouting wisdom going to Oakland? That’ll work. Jefferies is really, really good.
7 – Miami Marlins – Kentucky 2B JaVon Shelby
I’ve mentioned the comparison before, but Shelby’s prospect profile reads similarly to me to Ian Happ’s. Happ went ninth overall last year, so Shelby going seventh in our weird little mock seems fair. Shelby is also really, really good.
8 – San Diego Padres – Notre Dame 2B Cavan Biggio
Sometimes I feel as though I’m the last remaining Cavan Biggio fan. I know that’s not literally true, but I do still believe in him as a potential long-time big league regular. Offensively he strikes me as the kind of player who will hit better as a pro than he ever did as a college player. I don’t have much of anything to back that opinion up, but this is a mock draft so unsubstantiated claims are part of the deal.
9 – Detroit Tigers – Oregon State C Logan Ice
This pick works on multiple levels for me. Most obviously, Ice’s fast start at the plate and well-established reputation behind it warrants a top ten pick in this draft over some other higher profile college peers. It also works because Detroit seems to have a thing for college catchers. As somebody with a similar thing, I get it. In recent years they’ve plucked James McCann, Bryan Holaday, Kade Scivicque, Grayson Greiner, and Shane Zeile from the college ranks, aggressively promoting many of them along the way. Holaday, a sixth rounder back in 2010, was the only one of that bunch not picked within the draft’s first five rounds. That’s where Ice was expected to land coming into the year, but he could rise up to McCann draft levels (second round) if he keeps mashing.
10 – Chicago White Sox – Oklahoma 3B Sheldon Neuse
Recently got a Mike Olt draft comparison for Sheldon Neuse. Thought that was a pretty strong comp. Also liked that it was a draft comparison and not necessarily a pro prospect match. Olt’s big league disappointments don’t change the fact that he’s a really talented ballplayer capable of looking really good for long stretches at a time. Players develop in all kinds of different ways, so expecting one guy to follow another’s path is unwise. Maybe Neuse will fulfill his promise professionally in a way that Olt wasn’t able. Maybe he’ll experience similar developmental road blocks and see his game stall in a similar manner. Olt went 49th overall in the 2010 MLB Draft; snagging Neuse at any point after that would be a steal in 2016.
11 – Seattle Mariners – Arizona 3B Bobby Dalbec
Dalbec deserves a lot of credit for battling back from a slow start to now have a more than respectable 2016 overall batting line. He also deserves respect for being one of the realest 2016 MLB Draft prospects out there. What you see is what you get with Dalbec: massive power, lots of whiffs, and a fair amount of walks. His arm and athleticism help make up for a lack of easy lateral quickness at the hot corner, so sticking at third should remain an option for the foreseeable future. The older, popular, and common comp for him has been Troy Glaus; on the flip side, I’ve heard Chris Dominguez as a possible outcome. The Glaus ship appears to have sailed, so something in between that and Dominguez would be a fine professional result.
12 – Boston Red Sox – North Carolina RHP Zac Gallen
It’ll be really interesting to see how high Gallen will rise in the real draft come June. He’s the kind of relatively safe, high-floor starting pitching prospect who either sticks in the rotation for a decade or tops out as a sixth starter better served moving to the bullpen to see if his stuff plays up there. This aggressive (pretend) pick by Boston should point to what side of that debate I side with. Gallen doesn’t do any one thing particularly well — stellar fastball command and a willingness to keep pounding in cutters stand out — but he throws five (FB, cutter, truer SL, CB, CU) pitches for strikes and competes deep into just about every start. There’s serious value in that.
13 – Tampa Bay Rays – Duke RHP Bailey Clark
On the other end of the spectrum is a guy like Bailey Clark. Clark has dynamite stuff: 90-96 FB (98 peak), mid-80s cut-SL that flashes plus, and an extra firm 87-90 split-CU with some promise. The fastball alone is a serious weapon capable of getting big league hitters out thanks the combination of velocity and natural movement. What continues to hold Clark back is pedestrian command: having great stuff is key, but falling behind every hitter undercuts that advantage. Questions about his delivery — I personally don’t stress about that so much, but it’s worth noting — and that inconsistent command could force him into the bullpen sooner rather than later. He’d be a knockout reliever if that winds up being the case, but the prospect of pro development keeping him as a starter is too tantalizing to give up on just yet.
14 – Cleveland Indians – Kentucky RHP Kyle Cody
There’s a reason Clark and Cody are back-to-back here. Just about everything written about Clark above can apply to Cody here. The big righthander from Kentucky also has the natural comparison to fellow big righthander from Kentucky Alex Meyer looming over him. I did the Twins a favor by having him go off the board one pick before they could get tempted all over again.
15 – Minnesota Twins – Kentucky RHP Zack Brown
Brown is a college righty with the three pitches to keep starting but questionable command that could necessitate a move to relief down the line. There are a lot of guys like him in every class, but I like Brown’s steady improvement across the board over the years as the tie-breaker.
16 – Los Angeles Angels – Oregon LHP Cole Irvin
Irvin is living proof that the second full year back from Tommy John surgery is when a pitcher really starts to get it all back. I can only hope that teammate Matt Krook is noticing. I guess it would be weird if he wasn’t, right? Irvin has his velocity back (88-92), his changeup remains a weapon, and the results (5.01 K/9 last year up to 9.10 K/9 this year) are trending in the right (healthy) direction.
17 – Houston Astros – USC C Jeremy Martinez
I’ve long thought that Jeremy Martinez has been underrated as a college player, so I’m happy to get a few sentences off about how much I like him here. Martinez was born to catch with a reliable glove and accurate arm. His offensive game is equally well-rounded with the chance for an average hit tool and average raw power to go along with his standout approach. His ceiling may not be high enough for all teams to fall in love, but he’s as good a bet as any of the college catchers in this class to have a long big league career in some capacity or another.
18 – New York Yankees – Texas A&M OF Nick Banks
Hunter Renfroe went thirteenth overall in the 2013 MLB Draft, so his 2016 doppelganger Nick Banks going a few spots later seems appropriate. Banks is one of the many hitters with questionable BB/K marks before the season that scouts insisted had more mature approaches at the plate than the raw numbers suggested. The scouts have been redeemed by most of those hitters — Kyle Lewis most famously — but Banks has continued to struggle (5 BB/10 K) out of the gate so far. He could still have a fine pro career without polishing up his approach — he’s a legit five-tool guy with no singular grade falling below average on most scout cards — but plugging that last remaining hole could mean the difference between good and great. Apologies here to Boomer White and JB Moss, two excellent senior-sign outfield prospects out of A&M that have decidedly outperformed Banks so far in the early going. Both guys may have hit their way into top ten round money saving pick consideration.
19 – New York Mets – Texas A&M Ryan Hendrix
Zach Jackson out of Arkansas has consistently been mentioned as my favorite college reliever who might just be able to start in the pros, but Ryan Hendrix is coming on really fast. He’s got the heat (mid-90s peak), breaking ball (low- to mid-80s CB flashes plus), and enough of a changeup (83-86) to potentially make the switch to the rotation at the next level. If not, he’s a potential quick-moving reliever with late-inning upside. Win-win!
20 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Maryland RHP Mike Shawaryn
Few players have seen their stock dip as much as Shawaryn has so far this spring. Considered by many (or just me, who can remember…) to be on the same tier as the Daulton Jefferies’ of the world coming into the season, Shawaryn has struggled with pitching effectively while dealing with a decrease in fastball velocity and flattened out offspeed stuff. He’s still a top five round prospect with big league starter upside, but no longer the potential first day pick many were hoping to see coming into the year. The positive spin is that it’s entirely possible he’s just going through a bit of a dead arm period brought about by general fatigue right now and that a little bit of rest after the draft in June will bring back the kind of stuff that looked more mid-rotation caliber than fifth starter. If that’s the case, the moment he slips out of the top two rounds would represent major value for whatever team takes a shot on him.
21 – Toronto Blue Jays – Oregon RHP Stephen Nogosek
Another college reliever! Stephen Nogosek is one of the most interesting of his kind in this year’s class. He’s not the two-pitch fire-balling righthander with the plus breaking ball that teams view as a classic late-inning type. Nogosek commands four pitches for strikes, relying more on the overall depth of his repertoire than any one singular go-to offering. Many speculate that his delivery lends itself to shorter outings, but I’m not convinced that a pro team won’t at least consider using him in the rotation at some point.
22 – Pittsburgh Pirates – Oregon State SS Trever Morrison
Morrison came into the year known more for his glove than his bat, but the junior’s hot start had many upgrading his ceiling from utility guy to potential regular. He’s cooled off a bit since then, but his glove, arm, and speed all remain intriguing above-average tools. I think really good utility guy is a more appropriate ceiling for him at the moment, but there’s still a lot of season left to play. Morrison is a surprisingly divisive prospect among those I’ve talked to, so any guesses about his draft range would be nothing more than guesses. He does feel like the kind of guy who would wind up a Pirate, so at least we’ve got that going for us.
23 – St. Louis Cardinals – Miami OF Willie Abreu
The Cardinals throw caution to the wind and bet big on tools by selecting Abreu and his ugly 7 BB/25 K ratio here in the first round. With three picks in the first, you can take a gamble like this. Abreu’s raw power is at or near the top of this class, so the logic in such a pick is easy to see.
24 – San Diego Padres – California C Brett Cumberland
I’m not sure too many casual prospect fans realize that true sophomore Cumberland, set to turn 21 on June 25, is eligible for this year’s draft. I know I have a lot less scouting notes on him than I’d typically have for a draft-eligible prospect in the midst of one of the best seasons of any position player in college baseball. The steady receiver hit really well as a freshman last year (.429 SLG with 33 BB/41 K), but has taken it to the next level so far in 2016. Good defense, very real power, and success at the college level from day one? Just what this class needs, one more top five round college catcher.
25 – San Diego Padres – Indiana RHP Jake Kelzer
The real draft will no doubt be much kinder to the Padres, but grabbing Biggio, Cumberland, and Kelzer in this universe’s draft isn’t anything to be disappointed in. Two mature bats at up-the-middle defensive positions would help San Diego continue their stated goal of building that way (the return for trade backs that up) and Kelzer, a highly athletic 6-8, 235 pound righthander with a nasty hard slider, would be a fine addition to their growing collection of arms.
26 – Chicago White Sox – Texas Tech RHP Ryan Moseley
Much like the Willie Abreu pick above, taking Moseley this high is gambling on tools over performance. I’ve long been a fan of the sinker/slider archetype and Moseley does it about as well as any pitcher in this class. When I start digging into batted ball data to find GB% in the coming weeks, he’ll be the first name I look up. On physical ability, a case could be made that Moseley deserves this first round spot. If we’re talking early season production…not so much. As we mentioned before, some young pitchers throw with so much natural movement that they are unable to effectively harness the raw stuff with which they’ve been blessed. Moseley’s track record suggests just that. Taking him this high would be a gamble that the developmental side of your organization can straighten him out. There are too many teams besides the White Sox that I’d be so confident they could pull off the trick.
27 – Baltimore Orioles – Baylor LHP Daniel Castano
I haven’t heard Daniel Castano’s name mentioned as a top ten round pick much this spring, but I don’t see why he wouldn’t be in the mix. He’s a big lefty with three average or better pitches who has made the long-awaited leap (8.51 K/9 this year, up from the 5 or so K/9 of his first two seasons). I’m in.
28 – Washington Nationals – Michigan State LHP Cameron Vieaux
Everything written about Castano above applies to Vieaux here. The only notable difference is that Vieaux’s jump in performance is a little less pronounced (8.61 K/9 this year, up from the 7 or so K/9 the two previous seasons) yet no less impressive. Vieaux also have the chance to be a four-pitch lefty in the pros, so I guess that makes two differences.
29 – Washington Nationals – Texas A&M 2B Ryne Birk
Birk has worked his tail off to become a competent defender at the keystone, so selecting him this early is a vote of confidence in his glove passing the professional barrier of quality in the eyes of his first wave of pro coaches. I think he’s more than good enough at second with an intriguing enough upside as a hitter to make a top five round pick worth it. Offensively he’s shown average power, above-average speed, and good feel for contact. Sorting out his approach will be the difference between fun utility option or solid starter once he hits pro ball. He reminds me a good bit of Trever Morrison as a prospect, right down to the slightly off spellings of their respective first names.
30 – Texas Rangers – North Carolina OF Tyler Ramirez
Ramirez doesn’t have a carrying tool that makes him an obvious future big league player, but he does a lot of things well (power, speed, glove) and leverages an ultra-patient approach to put himself in consistently positive hitter’s counts. His profile is a little bit similar to his teammate Zac Gallen’s in that both are relatively high-floor prospects without the kind of massive ceilings one would expect in a first day pick. Gallen is the better prospect, but I think many of the national guys are sleeping on Ramirez. I’ve been guilty of overrating Tar Heels hitters in the past, but Ramirez looks like the real deal. Former Carolina outfielder Tim Fedroff, a seventh round pick in 2008, seems like a reasonable draft day expectation in terms of round selected. I’d happily snap up a guy like Ramirez in that range.
31 – New York Mets – Miami OF Jacob Heyward
Steady year-to-year improvement has been the name of Heyward’s game as a Hurricane. It’s more of a fourth outfielder profile than a slam dunk future regular ceiling, but he’s a solid, well-rounded player capable of doing just enough of everything to keep you invested.
32 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Miami RHP Bryan Garcia
Garcia has late-game reliever stuff (mid-90s FB, good SL) and pedigree (15.88 K/9 this year) to get himself drafted as one of the first true college relievers in his class.
33 – St. Louis Cardinals – Michigan State RHP Dakota Mekkes
If you read this site and/or follow college ball closely, this might be the first pick to surprise in some way, shape, or form. Mekkes wasn’t a pitcher mentioned in many 2016 draft preview pieces before the start of the season, but the 6-7, 250 pound righty has opened plenty of eyes in getting off to a dominant (16.36 K/9) albeit wild (7.16 BB/9) start to 2016. His stuff backs it up (FB up to 94, interesting SL, deceptive delivery), so he’s more than just a large college man mowing down overmatched amateurs. He’s a top ten round possibility now.
34 – St. Louis Cardinals – Duke LHP Jim Ziemba
A 6-10, 230 pound lefthander who goes after hitters from a funky sidearm delivery is a great way to cap this weird mock off. The obvious Michael Freeman comp is too good to ignore here.