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2014 MLB Draft College Outfield Follow List (and Ranking)

8 Apr 2014 11:16 PM / 3 Comments on 2014 MLB Draft College Outfield Follow List (and Ranking)

I’ve been unrelentingly positive about pretty much all things draft-related in almost all previous position groups for this year’s draft; it’s my nature to be optimistic, and I enjoy highlighting the good in amateur prospects whenever possible, This year’s college outfield class, however, has me really, really stretching to find nice things to say. As always it is important to note that all of the players listed below – literally all of them, even Garrett Brown (phenomenal athlete who has chosen football over baseball for now, though we won’t hold that against him as a person) way down at the bottom – are way, way better at baseball than 99% of any of the people evaluating them, myself included. Any and all criticism is meant only to illuminate greater truths about what I’ve seen, read, and heard, and not to disparage any player personally. Always like getting that out there to preempt some of the hate mail…

Brad Zimmer trumps all comers when it comes to showing a consistent power/speed mix that tantalizes scouts, fans, and whatever it is I am. That’s the good news. I haven’t seen him since this summer, and, after hearing and reading so many positive things about him this spring, I was a little taken aback to see his approach has gone backwards a bit, at least as far as my box score scouting expertise allows. That’s a little disappointing. The (expanded version of the) good news is, lackluster BB/K numbers aside, the man can hit. Projecting above-average plate discipline when the track record isn’t there is often a fool’s errand, but Zimmer is such a smart, gifted hitter that I think his skewed BB/K 2014 ratio is more about him being so locked in all season than a major red flag that would depress his prospect stock. I love a 2-0, 2-1, or 3-1 count as much as anybody, and the idea that a walk is as good as a single (more or less) is one I believe in, but there’s also something to be said for a guy capable of hitting the ball hard so consistently that he’s up there hunting for fastballs to drive. The measured approach to hitting has as much validity as the “see fastball, hit fastball” approach, it just depends on the rest of the player’s natural skill set. Zimmer’s wrists, hand/eye coordination, and balance give him a better than usual shot than other amateurs with similarly lackluster BB/K ratios.

Louie Lechich isn’t Brad Zimmer, but if you miss on the latter in the first round then hitting on the former later would give you a decent approximation of that power/skill starter kit. I know I might be crazy for saying this, and my personal rankings aren’t quite ready to back the statement up, but I think that Lechich is what so many want Derek Fisher to be. We’ll see.

Because the top of the draft is so flush with pitching, I keep coming back to the idea that teams picking in the top ten must be hoping against hope to get a big-time bat that slipped with their second pick. That’s currently where I’m at with Michael Conforto, a hitter likely too good to slip out of the first round but still not quite the stone cold mortal lock to go off the board that early. If a team with an iffy farm system and holes all over the ML roster (like, say, the Phillies) could land a college arm like Jeff Hoffman and then come back around and nab Conforto in the second…yeah, that would be alright with me. I made the indirect comparison between Zimmer and Lechich already, so we’ll go with the obvious next step and compare Conforto and Mike Papi. From here, I see very little that separates the two outside of perceived value. Both look like they could be average or better big league corner guys for a long time in pro ball. As happy as I’d be with Conforto in the second (or late first, really), I’d be just as good with waiting a little bit on Papi before snapping him up in the third or fourth round.

Aaron Fitt of Baseball America has talked up Greg Allen enough that I don’t think I can call him my guy, but, damn, I enjoy watching him play as much as any college outfielder on this list. His limited power upside is a real concern, especially in light of my newfound belief that power (or, in this case, even the threat of power) is the best statistical indicator of pro success. I’m drawn to speed/defense/on-base prospect profiles, but without the threat of pop, pro pitchers will undo a lot of what works offensively at the amateur level. Allen’s bat speed works in his favor, but his frame, athletic as it may be, poses a potential problem. I believe in his playable power more than most guys who fit the archetype, but will admit that being burned by players of a similar style over the years has me comparatively lower on Allen than I might have been in 2011. Still a high-level prospect worth following, of course.

The Virginia outfield is just plain silly. Papi is a pro hitter who just so happens to be currently playing college ball. Dating back to high school the aforementioned Fisher has always been a like and not a love for me – a point we’ve had some really good discussions on in the comments section over the years – and I remain of the belief that he has the chance to be a good regular in a corner if everything breaks just right rather than a potential star like some still projecting him as an upper- to mid-first round pick seem to believe. Brandon Downes can do it all athletically, but the all-important hit tool is a serious question. There are pro teams that would gladly trade their AA starting outfields for this group in a second.

I wrote a lot of positive things about Jeff Keller last year, so you know I’m not hopping off the bandwagon now. I wavered some on personal favorite Mark Payton pre-season – heard some not optimistic things about his pro prospects from people who couldn’t praise his ability to succeed in college enough – but I’m ready to pump him back up once I update these rankings pre-draft. Projection is king and Payton doesn’t have it compared to peers, but, man, I’ll take the guy who can run, field, throw, and, most importantly, roll out of bed ready to hit as my fourth outfielder any day. It’s silly to call a fourth-year college outfielder at TEXAS underrated, but I think pro scouts made up their mind on him being a nice college player and little more early on and haven’t been willing to revise that view over the years.

This may be a cop-out, but the new two months will tell us so much about the vast majority of the players outside of the first few. There’s very little separation in that mid-round tier that 2014 performance, the given day(s) a scout sees a guy, and team preference (power vs speed, flashes of plus tool vs well-roundedness, polish vs upside, etc.) will all play major roles in sorting out the jumble come June. I’d say Zimmer has put some distance between himself and the pack, and Conforto appears to be emerging as a strong contender for the second spot, but after that these rankings are as jumbled as any. Looking forward to revising this one after seeing how the season plays out.

San Francisco JR OF Bradley Zimmer
Oregon State JR OF/1B Michael Conforto
Virginia JR OF Mike Papi
Oregon State JR OF/RHP Dylan Davis
Virginia JR OF Derek Fisher
Virginia JR OF/C Brandon Downes
San Diego State JR OF Greg Allen
San Diego rJR OF/LHP Louie Lechich
Dartmouth SR OF Jeff Keller
Arizona State rJR OF Trever Allen
College of Charleston SR OF Brandon Murray
Kentucky JR OF Austin Cousino
South Carolina JR OF Tanner English
North Carolina State JR OF Jake Fincher
Oregon JR OF/3B Scott Heineman
Michigan State JR OF/C Jimmy Pickens
Florida Gulf Coast JR OF/1B Michael Suchy
Southern Mississippi JR OF/LHP Mason Robbins
Bradley JR OF Max Murphy
Texas SR OF Mark Payton
Georgia JR OF/3B Hunter Cole
Fresno State JR OF Jordan Luplow
Long Beach State JR OF/1B Richard Prigatano
Florida JR OF/RHP Justin Shafer
Nevada SR OF Brad Gerig
Binghamton JR OF/C Jake Thomas
Louisiana-Lafayette JR OF Caleb Adams
Cal Poly JR OF Nick Torres
Princeton SR OF/2B Alec Keller
Buffalo rSR OF Matt Pollock
North Carolina A&T SR OF/2B Luke Tendler
Auburn SO OF/2B Jordan Ebert
Louisiana State SO OF Mark Laird
Mississippi JR OF Senquez Golson
Southern Mississippi JR OF Connor Barron
Vanderbilt JR OF Johnny Norwood
Stanford JR OF Dominic Jose
Auburn SO OF/LHP Rock Rucker
Troy JR OF Jo-El Bennett
Washington State rSO OF Ben Roberts
Indiana rJR OF Scott Donley
Pittsburgh JR OF Boo Vazquez
Texas-Arlington rSR OF Matt Shortall
Rice SR OF/1B Michael Aquino
Nebraska SR OF Mike Pritchard
Kansas JR OF Connor McKay
Kansas rSO OF Steve Goldstein
TCU JR OF/RHP Jerrick Suiter
Tennessee JR OF Jonathan Youngblood
South Carolina JR OF/3B Elliot Caldwell
Washington State JR OF/1B Yale Rosen
Central Connecticut State SR OF JP Sportman
The Citadel SR OF Hughston Armstrong
Central Michigan JR OF Nick Regnier
North Carolina State JR OF Bubba Riley
Wake Forest rJR OF Kevin Jordan
Wake Forest SR OF Evan Stephens
Louisville JR OF Michael White
Evansville rJR OF Kevin Kaczmarski
USC rJR OF Omar Cotto Lozada
Mississippi JR OF Auston Bousfield
McNeese State SR OF Jackson Gooch
Louisiana State JR OF Jared Foster
James Madison JR OF/2B Chad Carroll
Louisiana-Lafayette SR OF Seth Harrison
Cal Poly JR OF Alex Michaels
Georgia State rSR OF Chase Raffield
Mississippi JR OF Will Jamison
Alabama JR OF/C Ben Moore
Eastern Michigan rSR OF Sam Ott
Pittsburgh SR OF Casey Roche
Southern JR OF Lance Jones
Cincinnati rSO OF Will Drake
Delaware rSO OF Gary Jones
Louisiana State SR OF Sean McMullen
Miami (Ohio) JR OF Matt Honchel
UCLA JR OF Eric Filia
Toledo rSO OF/SS Dan Zuchowski
Duke rSR OF Ryan Deitrich
Wagner SR OF Chris Smith
Arkansas rSO OF Tyler Spoon
Long Island-Brooklyn SR OF Pete Leonello
Pepperdine rJR OF Bryan Langlois
Oklahoma State JR OF/1B Zach Fish
Virginia Military Institute rJR OF Jordan Tarsovich
Nebraska JR OF Austin Darby
Northern ColoradoJR OF Jensen Park
Louisville SR OF/LHP Cole Sturgeon
Illinois-Chicago rJR OF Jon Ryan
Lamar rSR OF Jude Vidrine
Middle Tennessee State SR OF Trent Miller
Akron rJR OF Devan Ahart
Florida State rSR OF Brett Knief
UAB SR OF Ivan DeJesus
TCU JR OF Cody Jones
Kansas JR OF Michael Suiter
Kansas State JR OF Max Brow
Texas A&M SR OF Krey Bratsen
Utah SR OF Braden Anderson
Texas A&M SO OF JB Moss
UCLA SR OF Brian Carroll
Florida International SR OF Tyler Hibbert
Minnesota JR OF Jake Bergren
Bethune-Cookman SR OF Josh Johnson
Mercer SR OF Derrick Workman
Oklahoma State SR OF Aaron Cornell
Texas rSR OF Matt Moynihan
Towson rSR OF Kurt Wertz
Pittsburgh SR OF/RHP Stephen Vranka
Maryland rJR OF Charlie White
Florida State JR OF Josh Delph
Notre Dame JR OF/1B Ryan Bull
Miami SR OF Dale Carey
Washington State SR OF/LHP Jason Monda
Oregon SR OF Kyle Garlick
West Virginia SR OF Jacob Rice
UNC Wilmington JR OF Luke Dunlap
San Diego State rSO OF Spencer Thornton
North Carolina State JR OF Jake Armstrong
Cal State Fullerton JR OF Austin Diemer
Hawaii JR OF Keao Aliviado
Louisiana-Lafayette JR OF Dylan Butler
Louisiana-Monroe SR OF Dalton Herrington
Davidson SR OF Forrest Brandt
Cincinnati rSO OF Taylor Schmidt
Rutgers SR OF Brian O’Grady
Jackson State SR OF Charles Tillery
Indiana State JR OF Landon Curry
Texas JR OF Taylor Stell
Illinois-Chicago rSO OF/LHP Jeff Boehm
Ball State SR OF Sean Godfrey
Washington rJR OF Will Sparks
Georgia Tech rSO OF Dan Spingola
Clemson JR OF Tyler Slaton
Elon JR OF/C Ryan Cooper
Central Florida JR OF Derrick Salberg
Creighton SR OF Mike Gerber
Cornell SR OF Chris Cruz
Bryant JR OF/C Jordan Mountford
Ohio State JR OF Patrick Porter
Kent State JR OF Alex Miklos
Iowa JR OF/2B Eric Toole
Georgia rJR OF Conor Welton
South Alabama rJR OF Garrett DeGallier
Arkansas-Little Rock SR OF Bryson Thionnet
Maryland rJR OF Mike Montville
Oregon SR OF Connor Hofmann
Louisiana-Lafayette SR OF/2B Ryan Leonards
Oklahoma rJR OF Colt Bickerstaff
Holy Cross SR OF Brandon Cipolla
Jacksonville State SR OF Michel Bishop
Lehigh JR OF/C Justin Pacchioli
Towson SR OF Dominic Fratantuono
Valparaiso SR OF Chris Manning
Stephen F. Austin State SR OF Ricardo Sanchez
Cincinnati SR OF/1B Justin Glass
Miami SR OF/3B Tyler Palmer
Texas JR OF Collin Shaw
Mississippi State SR OF/LHP CT Bradford
Mississippi State JR OF Jake Vickerson
Towson JR OF Peter Bowles
Kansas JR OF Joe Moroney
Rutgers JR OF Vinny Zarrillo
Kennesaw State JR OF Jacob Bruce
Charleston Southern JR OF Bobby Ison
Oral Roberts rSR OF Tyler Boss
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi rJR OF/LHP Tyler Ware
San Francisco JR OF Derek Atkinson
Mercer SR OF Sasha LaGarde
Indiana State SR OF/C Mike Fitzgerald
North Carolina Greensboro JR OF Eric Kalbfleisch
Jacksonville State SR OF Griff Gordon
Eastern Illinois JR OF Caleb Howell
Norfolk State SR OF Cameron Day
Clemson SR OF Joe Costigan
UC Santa Barbara rSR OF/1B Joe Epperson
Missouri JR OF Logan Pearson
Delaware State SR OF Aaron Nardone
Florida A&M JR OF Marlon Gibbs
Toledo SR OF Tyler Grogg
James Madison rSR OF/1B Matt Tenaglia
Mount St. Mary’s SR OF Jay Knight
Wichita State rSR OF/LHP Garrett Bayliff
Dayton SR OF Mark Podlas
Winthrop rJR OF TJ Olesczuk
Wichita State rSR OF Micah Green
Xavier rSR OF Mitch Elliot
New Jersey Tech JR OF Ed Charlton
Kansas State rJR OF Mitch Meyer
Northeastern SR OF Connor Lyons
Old Dominion JR OF Josh Eldridge
Florida Atlantic SR OF/1B Tyler Rocklein
St. John’s JR OF Zach Lauricella
Georgia State SR OF Chris Triplett
Western Kentucky SR OF/INF Regan Flaherty
The Citadel SR OF/3B Drew DeKerlegand
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi JR OF Kyle Danford
Texas A&M SR OF Jace Statum
Canisius SR OF Jesse Kelso
Fairfield SR OF/C Ryan Plourde
Siena SR OF John Rooney
Texas-Pan American SR OF Alex Howe
West Virginia JR OF Bobby Boyd
Virginia Commonwealth SR OF Bill Cullen
Presbyterian rSR OF Nathan Chong
Wisconsin-Milwaukee JR OF Luke Meeteer
Akron rJR OF Joey Havrilak
Butler SR OF Marcos Calderon
Wright State SR OF Kieston Greene
Wofford SR OF/INF Josh Hyman
Southeast Missouri State rJR OF Jason Blum
Savannah State JR OF David Richards
Vanderbilt JR OF Will Cooper
Winthrop SR OF Cody Dolan
South Florida rSO OF Buddy Putnam
Alabama State JR OF Waldyvan Estrada
Army JR OF Mark McCants
Murray State SR OF Ty Stetson
Kent State SR OF/LHP TJ Sutton
Western Michigan JR OF/C Jared Kujawa
Mississippi JR OF Braxton Lee
New Mexico State SR OF Quinnton Mack
Radford SR OF Blake Sipe
South Florida JR OF Austin Lueck
Arkansas JR OF Joe Serrano
Creighton SR OF Brad McKewon
Buffalo SR OF Thomas Richards
North Dakota State SR OF Tim Colwell
Utah Valley State JR OF Jordy Hart
High Point SR OF/SS Kyle Brandenburg
Cal State Fullerton JR OF Clay Williamson
Western Carolina JR OF Garrett Brown