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2016 MLB Draft Follow Lists – Big South

Matt Crohan at the top of the Big South’s pitching pile is easy. He’s really good. I currently have him as the seventh best college arm in this class and a dark horse to crash the top half of the first round this June. It’s a minority opinion to be sure, but I still don’t see what separates him all that much from AJ Puk at this point. After Crohan, however, this list gets difficult to sort in a hurry. Thankfully, it’s not for lack of quality options. The top dozen or so names listed below are all really exciting pro prospects in their own ways.

Parker Bean and Andre Scrubb are both big guys (Bean a little leaner) with mid-90s fastballs and quality offspeed stuff to match. The former’s 2015 was one to forget, but I think his athleticism and the depth of his offspeed stuff (cut-SL, CB, CU) are enticing enough that I can forgive it. Scrubb’s heft and arm action have me leaning towards more of a bullpen future for him – fair or not – but he can throw two breaking balls for strikes, so starting as a pro shouldn’t be off the table. He’s coming off a really impressive 2015 season, so I could see teams that value performance giving him the edge.

The Big South has a pair of pitchers in Devin Gould and Jeremy Walker that had me questioning my own core pitching beliefs. Both are righthanded juniors with sturdy frames and some projection left. Both have fastballs that creep into the mid-90s. Both have average or better sliders with above-average promise. Gould has missed more bats, but has been far too wild. Walker has average to above-average control, but to date hasn’t lit the world on fire with his ability to get swings and misses. Their relative youth and similar stuff sets up an interesting (albeit admittedly flawed) study in what area is more “fixable” in pitching prospects. Is it easier to fix one’s control or the increase one’s ability to miss bats? I send this question around to three BASEBALL MEN. Two opted for the guy with the iffy control but better strikeout numbers while the third claimed the guy with better control and decent K/9 had an easier path towards overall improvement (he also said he’d pay to see a real study done on this…we both freely admitted we were too stupid to figure out the logistics – so many variables! – of such a thing). Anyway, this was one of my conclusions…

Control seems more fixable due to circumstantial stuff — improved mechanics, better/different coaching, having some baseball or non-baseball epiphany between the ears — so I think I’d take the wild guy over the lower-K/lower-BB option. The only thing that gives me pause is that spikes in K/9 (when they happen at all) — again, assuming quality stuff throughout — seem to come with incremental change rather than major overhauls. That 6.50 K/9 to 9.00 K/9 jump can come with just changing a grip on an existing cutter or something since the “new” pitch better complements what you’ve been doing already. Still going with the control guy over the alternative, but it’s close.

Of course, that conversation sent me down a rabbit hole that eventually led to an interesting discussion that expanded on the idea of what the least worrisome flaw a prospect can be. It reminded me of a football coach I once had who swore that he could fix any player’s – he specialized in QB’s, but said he could help anybody – footwork in a matter of weeks. Paxton Lynch, a potential early first round QB in this year’s NFL Draft, has been dinged by many for ugly footwork. When I see some draft experts call this a fatal flaw, I’m reminded of that coach. One man’s fatal flaw is another’s easily correctable foible. For the record, I don’t know nearly enough about correcting a quarterback’s footwork to add much to the Lynch conversation. On one hand, it does seem like something that can be retaught. On the other, I’ve heard and read elsewhere that bad footwork is more of a symptom of something larger (inability to make decisions and read defenses, for example) than a singular physical issue. Scouting and development is hard work, I guess.

Anyway, due to my current belief that below-average control at the amateur level, often stemming from inconsistent mechanics, ineffective coaching, or some unknowable to the outside world mental barrier, is the simpler of the two issues to improve on, the wild Devin Gould gets the edge over the ordinary K/9-ing Jeremy Walker…for now. Your mileage might vary.

Alex Cunningham is a good arm on a good team, so he’ll get plenty of deserved attention all spring long now that he’s fully recovered from a fractured elbow. His command of three pitches (88-95 FB, mid-70s CB, upper-70s CU) should allow him to stay in the rotation professionally. Austin Ross has more of a reliever feel (good FB, plus SL), but with the chance to be a damn fine one. Mitchell Kuebbing has a little less fastball than the aforementioned Gould, so teams might not be as willing to overlook his similar control issues. I’m just a guy on the internet with little to lose, so gambling on his impressive arm – 88-92 FB, breaking ball that flashes plus, changeup that improves with every outing – is a no-brainer for me. I switched the order of these three pitches about a dozen times before finally settling on the ranking you see below. That kind of waffling is indicative of the overall time spent on sorting through these arms. I can’t pinpoint the exact reason why, but Big South pitching has been the hardest conference/position group to organize so far. That’s probably bad news for the conference’s hitters…

I last took Spanish in school a dozen years ago, so forgive me for the few days of excitement when I thought I had a nickname for Michael Paez cued up and ready to leash on the unsuspecting world. Turns out that vocabulary, once my one and only language strength (boooo grammar), had let me down: country in Spanish is país and not paez. Turns out we can’t call him Little Country after all. What we can call him is a damn fine ballplayer, lame nickname or not. Paez was my preferred First Team All-Prospect college player from two weeks ago for a reason. My indirect comp for him — more about how I perceive him as a prospect than a tools/physical comparison — was Blake Trahan, a third round pick of Cincinnati last season. I don’t know that he’ll rise that high in the eyes of the teams doing the picking in June, but there’s nothing in his prospect profile to suggest he doesn’t have a chance to finish around the same range (early second round) on my final big board. In a draft severely lacking in two-way college shortstops, he’s as good as it gets.

Josh Greene uses his plus speed to his advantage both in tracking down balls in center and on the base paths. He’s also one of the many toolsy college outfielders in this class who scouts insist has a better approach at the plate than his BB/K ratios to date suggest. Speed, range for center, leadoff approach, and sneaky pop all add up to a quality prospect too good to be called a sleeper.

Connor Owings and Nate Blanchard are both solid second base prospects coming off good 2015 seasons. Owings has an impressive hit tool and a patient approach while Owings is a strong defender with a similarly keen batting eye. I’m intrigued by Roger Gonzalez, a plus defender behind the plate and a potential contributor at it. The Miami transfer had a fine junior season and now rates as one of this class’s better senior-signs at the position. Tyler Chadwick is a really fun college player who might get dinged by pro teams unsure what to do with him defensively at the next level. It’s hard to believe that being too versatile a player can be seen as a negative by some front offices in 2016, but that’s some of the feedback I’ve gotten on him as a prospect. It’s such a ridiculous notion to me that it feels like a strawman argument to otherwise – especially considering that Chadwick is a good athlete who legitimately can play multiple spots; it’s not like’s a future DH without a position – but here we are. Chadwick’s versatility make him a far more appealing to prospect to me than he otherwise might be for no other reason than the utility he could bring a low-level minor league roster in flux with promotions, demotions, and injuries. That in and of itself gives him value, and that’s even before we get to his sound approach at the plate, average speed, and the possibility he could be nurtured full-time behind the plate as a viable catching prospect.

My quick search didn’t find the whereabouts of former Big South prospects Connor Pate, Al Molina, and Cas Silber. If anybody knows anything – or knows how to Google better than I can, evidently – drop me a line. I did find Dalton Moats, formerly of Coastal Carolina, at Delta State. He’s a good name to know as a three-pitch lefty with projection and velocity.

Hitters

  1. Coastal Carolina JR SS/2B Michael Paez
  2. High Point JR OF Josh Greene
  3. Coastal Carolina SR 2B/OF Connor Owings
  4. Charleston Southern JR 3B/2B Nate Blanchard
  5. Winthrop SR C Roger Gonzalez
  6. Coastal Carolina SR 3B/C Tyler Chadwick
  7. High Point JR 2B/SS Chris Clare
  8. Radford SR OF Shane Johnsonbaugh
  9. High Point SO 1B/OF Carson Jackson
  10. Liberty SR SS Dalton Britt (2016)
  11. Coastal Carolina SR 3B Zach Remillard
  12. Liberty JR OF Will Shepherd
  13. Coastal Carolina JR C/1B GK Young
  14. Liberty JR 3B/1B Sammy Taormina
  15. Coastal Carolina SR OF Anthony Marks
  16. Gardner-Webb SR C Collin Thacker
  17. Radford SR SS/OF Chris Coia
  18. UNC Asheville JR OF/3B Joe Tietjen
  19. Campbell SR OF/RHP Cole Hallum
  20. Radford rSO OF Trevor Riggs
  21. Liberty JR 1B Andrew Yacyk
  22. Liberty JR 2B Eric Grabowski
  23. Radford JR C John Gonzalez
  24. Winthrop rSR OF Anthony Paulsen
  25. Winthrop JR OF/C Babe Thomas
  26. Longwood SR OF Colton Konvicka
  27. Charleston Southern SR OF Sly Edwards
  28. Coastal Carolina SR C/OF David Parrett
  29. Liberty SR OF Aaron Stroosma
  30. UNC Asheville JR OF Kyle Carruthers
  31. Presbyterian SR OF Weston Jackson
  32. UNC Asheville SR C Lucas Owens
  33. Charleston Southern SR SS Cole Murphy
  34. UNC Asheville SR C Pete Guy

Pitchers

  1. Winthrop JR LHP Matt Crohan
  2. Liberty JR RHP Parker Bean
  3. High Point JR RHP Andre Scrubb
  4. Coastal Carolina rJR RHP Alex Cunningham
  5. Longwood JR RHP Mitchell Kuebbing
  6. Radford JR RHP Austin Ross
  7. Coastal Carolina SR RHP Mike Morrison
  8. Longwood JR RHP Devin Gould
  9. Gardner-Webb JR RHP Jeremy Walker
  10. Coastal Carolina rSR RHP Tyler Poole
  11. Radford SR RHP Dylan Nelson
  12. Gardner-Webb SR RHP Brad Haymes
  13. High Point rSR RHP Scot Hoffman
  14. Liberty JR LHP Michael Stafford
  15. Gardner-Webb SR LHP Ryan Boelter
  16. Coastal Carolina JR RHP Andrew Beckwith
  17. Liberty JR RHP Caleb Evans
  18. Liberty SR LHP Victor Cole
  19. Coastal Carolina rSR RHP Adam Hall
  20. Coastal Carolina rSO RHP Nicholas Masterson
  21. Gardner-Webb rSO RHP Andrew Massey
  22. Winthrop rSR LHP Sam Kmiec
  23. Presbyterian JR RHP Ethan Wortkoetter
  24. Liberty JR RHP Jackson Bertsch
  25. Liberty JR RHP Thomas Simpson
  26. Coastal Carolina rSR RHP Patrick Corbett
  27. Liberty SR RHP Carson Herndon
  28. Radford JR RHP Kyle Zurak
  29. Charleston Southern SR LHP Alex Ministeri
  30. Winthrop rSO RHP Zach Cook
  31. Winthrop SR SS/RHP Kyle Edwards
  32. Radford JR RHP Nygeal Andrews
  33. High Point rSR RHP Joe Goodman
  34. Gardner-Webb rSO RHP Wil Sellers
  35. Charleston Southern rSO RHP Wil Hartsell
  36. Longwood JR RHP Ryan Jones
  37. Charleston Southern SR RHP Chayce Hubbard
  38. Longwood JR RHP Luke Simpson
  39. Presbyterian JR LHP Hayden Deal
  40. Charleston Southern rSR RHP Evan Raynor
  41. Radford SR RHP Daniel Bridgeman
  42. Charleston Southern SR RHP Jon Piriz
  43. Winthrop SR RHP Zach Sightler
  44. Radford JR LHP Kyle Palmer
  45. Campbell SR RHP Nick Thayer
  46. Presbyterian SR RHP David Sauer
  47. Campbell JR LHP Andrew Witczak
  48. UNC Asheville SR RHP Corey Randall

Campbell

SR RHP Nick Thayer (2016)
SR RHP Grant Yost (2016)
JR LHP Andrew Witczak (2016)
SR OF/RHP Cole Hallum (2016)
rSR OF/RHP Brian Taylor (2016)
SR C Matt Parrish (2016)
rSR OF Kyle Prats (2016)
SR 2B/SS Anthony Lopez (2016)
SO C JD Andreessen (2017)
FR 1B/OF Michael Van Degna (2018)

High Priority Follows: Nick Thayer, Grant Yost, Andrew Witczak, Cole Hallum

Charleston Southern

rSR RHP Evan Raynor (2016)
SR LHP Alex Ministeri (2016)
SR RHP Jon Piriz (2016)
SR RHP Chayce Hubbard (2016)
rSO RHP Wil Hartsell (2016)
SR OF Sly Edwards (2016)
SR 1B Bryan Dye (2016)
SR OF Brandon Burris (2016)
SR SS Cole Murphy (2016)
JR 3B/2B Nate Blanchard (2016)
SR OF Jack Crittenberger (2016)
SR 2B Ryan Maksim (2016)
SO RHP Tyler Weekley (2017)
SO OF Chris Singleton (2017)

High Priority Follows: Evan Raynor, Alex Ministeri, Jon Piriz, Chayce Hubbard, Wil Hartsell, Sly Edwards, Nate Blanchard

Coastal Carolina

rJR RHP Alex Cunningham (2016)
rSR RHP Tyler Poole (2016)
rSR RHP Adam Hall (2016)
rSR RHP Patrick Corbett (2016)
SR RHP Mike Morrison (2016)
rSO RHP Nicholas Masterson (2016)
JR RHP Andrew Beckwith (2016)
rJR SS/RHP Jordan Gore (2016)
JR C/1B GK Young (2016)
JR SS/2B Michael Paez (2016)
SR OF Anthony Marks (2016)
SR C/OF David Parrett (2016)
SR 3B Zach Remillard (2016)
SR 2B/OF Connor Owings (2016)
SR 3B/C Tyler Chadwick (2016)
SO OF Dalton Ewing (2016)
SO RHP Bobby Holmes (2017)
SO RHP Zack Hopeck (2017)
SO 2B/SS Seth Lancaster (2017)
SO 2B/OF Billy Cooke (2017)
SO 1B/3B Kevin Woodall (2017)
FR RHP Jason Bilous (2018)
FR SS/OF Cameron Pearcey (2018)
FR C Kyle Skeels (2018)

High Priority Follows: Alex Cunningham, Tyler Poole, Adam Hall, Patrick Corbett, Mike Morrison, Nicholas Masterson, Andrew Beckwith, Jordan Gore, GK Young, Michael Paez, Anthony Marks, David Parent, Zach Remillard, Connor Owings, Tyler Chadwick, Dalton Ewing

Gardner-Webb

JR RHP Jeremy Walker (2016)
rSO RHP Andrew Massey (2016)
SR LHP Ryan Boelter (2016)
SR RHP Brad Haymes (2016)
rSO RHP Wil Sellers (2016)
SR C Collin Thacker (2016)
SR 1B Patrick Graham (2016)
SR 2B Tyler Best (2016)
JR OF/3B Matt Simmons (2016)
JR OF Jacob Walker (2016)
SR OF Taylor Fisher (2016)
SR OF Evan Hyett (2016)
SO RHP Bradley Hallman (2017)
FR OF Chris Clary (2018)
FR OF Mason Fox (2018)

High Priority Follows: Jeremy Walker, Andrew Massey, Ryan Boelter, Brad Haymes, Wil Sellers, Collin Thacker

High Point

JR RHP Andre Scrubb (2016)
rSR RHP Scot Hoffman (2016)
SR RHP Michael Hennessey (2016)
rSR RHP Joe Goodman (2016)
SR RHP Tyler Britton (2016)
JR OF Josh Greene (2016)
JR 2B/SS Chris Clare (2016)
SO 1B/OF Carson Jackson (2016)
SR OF Tim Mansfield (2016)
SR C Dominic Fazio (2016)
JR OF Luke Parker (2016)
SO 2B Hunter Lee (2017)
FR RHP Andrew Gottfried (2018)
FR C Nick Blomgren (2018)
JR INF Nick Capra (2018)

High Priority Follows: Andre Scrubb, Scot Hoffman, Michael Hennessey, Joe Goodman, Josh Greene, Chris Clare, Carson Jackson

Liberty

SR LHP Victor Cole (2016)
SR RHP Carson Herndon (2016)
JR LHP Michael Stafford (2016)
JR RHP Jackson Bertsch (2016)
JR RHP Thomas Simpson (2016)
JR RHP Shane Quarterley (2016)
JR RHP Evan Mitchell (2016)
JR RHP Cody Gamble (2016)
JR RHP Jordan Scott (2016)
JR RHP Alex Clouse (2016)
JR RHP Caleb Evans (2016)
JR RHP Parker Bean (2016)
SR SS Dalton Britt (2016)
JR 3B/1B Sammy Taormina (2016)
JR OF Will Shepherd (2016)
rSO 3B Dylan Allen (2016)
JR 1B Andrew Yacyk (2016)
SR OF Aaron Stroosma (2016)
JR 2B Eric Grabowski (2016)
SO OF Josh Close (2017)
FR RHP Jack Degroat (2018)
FR RHP Zack Helsel (2018)
FR OF DJ Artis (2018)

High Priority Follows: Victor Cole, Carson Herndon, Michael Stafford, Jackson Bertsch, Thomas Simpson, Jordan Scott, Caleb Evans, Parker Bean, Dalton Britt, Sammy Taormina, Will Shepherd, Andrew Yacyk, Aaron Stroosma, Eric Grabowski

Longwood

JR RHP Devin Gould (2016)
SR RHP Allen Ellis (2016)
SR RHP Travis Burnette (2016)
JR RHP Mitchell Kuebbing (2016)
JR RHP Ryan Jones (2016)
JR RHP Luke Simpson (2016)
SR OF Colton Konvicka (2016)
SR 2B CJ Roth (2016)
JR OF Drew Kitson (2016)
SR 1B Connar Bastaich (2016)
JR C Mac McCafferty (2016)
JR 3B Alex Lewis (2016)
JR OF Janos Briscoe (2016): 6-2, 200 pounds
SO LHP Michael Catlin (2017)
SO RHP Zach Potojecki (2017)
SO SS Mike Osinski (2017)

High Priority Follows: Devin Gould, Mitchell Kuebbing, Ryan Jones, Luke Simpson, Colton Konvicka

Presbyterian

SR RHP David Sauer (2016)
rJR RHP Aaron Lesiak (2016)
JR RHP Ethan Wortkoetter (2016)
JR LHP Brian Kehner (2016)
JR LHP Hayden Deal (2016)
SR OF/1B Peter Johnson (2016)
SR 3B/2B Jacob Midkiff (2016)
JR OF Tyler Weyenberg (2016)
SR OF Weston Jackson (2016)
SO RHP Tanner Chock (2017)
SO RHP Russell Thompson (2017)
SO RHP/3B Ryan Hedrick (2017)
SO INF/OF AJ Priaulx (2017)
SO 1B Nick Wise (2017)

High Priority Follows: David Sauer, Ethan Wortkoetter, Hayden Deal, Jacob Midkiff, Tyler Weyenberg, Weston Jackson

Radford

SR RHP Dylan Nelson (2016)
JR RHP Austin Ross (2016)
SR LHP Mitchell MacKeith (2016)
SR RHP Daniel Bridgeman (2016)
JR LHP Kyle Palmer (2016)
SR LHP Tyler Swarmer (2016)
JR RHP Kyle Zurak (2016)
JR RHP Nygeal Andrews (2016)
SR OF Shane Johnsonbaugh (2016)
JR C John Gonzalez (2016)
SR SS/OF Chris Coia (2016)
SR C Jordan Taylor (2016)
JR INF Danny Hrbek (2016)
rSO OF Trevor Riggs (2016)
SO LHP Zack Ridgely (2017)
FR RHP Brandon Donovan (2018)
FR RHP Ryan Sande (2018)
FR 2B/SS Cody Higgerson (2018)
FR 3B Matt Roth (2018)
FR OF Adam Whitacre (2018)

High Priority Follows: Dylan Nelson, Austin Ross, Daniel Bridgeman, Kyle Zurak, Nygeal Andrews, Shane Johnsonbaugh, Jose Gonzalez, Chris Coia, Jordan Taylor, Danny Hrbek, Trevor Riggs

UNC Asheville

JR RHP Joe Zayatz (2016)
SR RHP Corey Randall (2016)
JR OF/LHP Tanner Bush (2016)
SR C Pete Guy (2016)
SR C Lucas Owens (2016)
JR OF Kyle Carruthers (2016)
JR OF/3B Joe Tietjen (2016)
JR SS Derek Smith (2016)
rJR INF Justin Woods (2016)
SO LHP Jordan Fulbright (2017)
SO RHP Ryan Tapp (2017)
FR LHP Jordan Carr (2018)
FR LHP Zach Greene (2018)

High Priority Follows: Joe Zayatz, Corey Randall, Pete Guy, Lucas Owens, Kyle Carruthers, Joe Tietjen

Winthrop

JR LHP Matt Crohan (2016)
rSR LHP Sam Kmiec (2016)
JR RHP Reece Green (2016)
SR RHP Zach Sightler (2016)
rSO RHP Zach Cook (2016)
SR SS/RHP Kyle Edwards (2016)
rSR OF Jayce Whitley (2016)
rSR OF Anthony Paulsen (2016)
rSR OF Tyler Asbill (2016)
JR OF/C Babe Thomas (2016)
SR C Roger Gonzalez (2016)
rSR 1B Mark Lowrie (2016)
rJR 2B CJ Hicks (2016)
SO LHP Riley Arnone (2017)
SO LHP Freddie Sultan (2017)
SO 2B/3B Mitch Spires (2017)
SO SS Jake Sullivan (2017)
FR RHP Nate Pawelczyk (2018)
FR LHP Thad Harris (2018)
FR OF Hunter Lipscomb (2018)
FR OF Matthew Mulkey (2018)

High Priority Follows: Matt Crohan, Sam Kmiec, Reece Green, Zach Sightler, Zach Cook, Kyle Edwards, Jayce Whitley, Anthony Paulsen, Babe Thomas, Roger Gonzalez

GO/AO Data Update 2.0 – May 21, 2010

Data good through May 20th. Weekend homework will be completing a few more college position lists (3B, OF, RHP, LHP) and starting back in with the high schoolers. For now, in an effort to buy me some more time to work on big stuff like that, I present the finest publicly available GO% in all the land…

North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey: 64%
Tennessee JR LHP Bryan Morgado: 51%
Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis: 70% (!)
Texas JR RHP Brandon Workman: 56%
LSU JR RHP Austin Ross: 39%
Miami JR LHP Chris Hernandez: 63%
South Carolina JR RHP Sam Dyson: 68%
Florida State JR LHP John Gast: 69%
Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn: 73% (10/0 GO/AO ratio in return from injury)
Texas SO RHP Taylor Jungmann: 65%
Virginia SO LHP Danny Hultzen: 50%
Kentucky SO RHP Alex Meyer: 53%
Rice SO LHP Taylor Wall: 58%
UCLA SO RHP Trevor Bauer: 44%
Vanderbilt SO RHP Jack Armstrong: 57%
Gonzaga SO LHP Ryan Carpenter: 56%
Kentucky JR LHP Logan Darnell: 57%

GO/AO Data Update (through May 2)

First, a special thank you to everybody who reads the gibberish I churn out on a semi-daily basis around here. April was the best month from a traffic standpoint in the history of the site, besting the previous high watermark set last June. We’re up over 200,000 visitors and climbing. Thank you.

Second, another thank you for anybody who has commented or emailed over the past few weeks. I’ve read everything readers have sent in and learned a whole lot in the process. No one man can cover the draft by himself, so the help I receive in the comments or via email goes a long way in getting the best quality draft coverage out in the open. Thank you. Responses will finally be coming this week, so be on the look out for that.

Third, here’s a quick idea of what I’ve got on the agenda for the next week or so, in no particular order:

  • Mystery Draft – High School Outfielders
  • College Position Ranking – Shortstops and/or Catchers
  • Alternate Reality Mock Draft – All Players Must Go to College (all members of 2007 prep class draft-eligible)
  • 2010 MLB Mock Draft! Finally!

Anything else? I’m always open for suggestions.

Fourth, data! Top dozen groundballers in my admittedly not 100% comprehensive database:

  • Vanderbilt SO RHP Sonny Gray: 2.73 GO/AO
  • Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis: 2.33 GO/AO
  • Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn: 2.33 GO/AO
  • South Carolina JR RHP Sam Dyson: 2.13 GO/AO
  • California SO RHP Dixon Anderson: 2.13 GO/AO
  • Florida State JR LHP John Gast: 2.11 GO/AO
  • Stanford SO LHP Brett Mooneyham: 2.09 GO/AO
  • Texas SO Taylor Jungmann: 2.00 GO/AO
  • North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey: 1.89 GO/AO
  • Miami JR LHP Chris Hernandez: 1.86 GO/AO
  • Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale: 1.69 GO/AO
  • Notre Dame JR RHP Brian Dupra: 1.67 GO/AO

Now for the top half dozen…airballers?…in the same database:

  • San Diego SR RHP AJ Griffin: 0.44 GO/AO
  • LSU JR RHP Anthony Ranaudo: 0.57 GO/AO
  • LSU JR Austin Ross: 0.60 GO/AO
  • Cal State Fullerton SO RHP Tyler Pill: 0.62 GO/AO
  • UCLA SO RHP Trevor Bauer: 0.73 GO/AO
  • Georgia JR RHP Justin Grimm: 0.84 GO/AO

More Data – April 22, 2010

Random sampling of some of the players I’ve kept track of so far this year…

***

School – Year – Pitcher – % of batted ball outs classified as “ground balls”

San Diego SR RHP AJ Griffin – 31%

Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis – 71%

Texas JR RHP Brandon Workman – 55%

Louisiana State JR RHP Austin Ross – 38%

South Carolina JR RHP Sam Dyson – 64%

San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair – 50%

San Diego JR LHP Sammy Solis – 56%

California JR RHP Dixon Anderson – 67%

Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn – 70%

Arkansas JR RHP Brett Eibner – 43%

Florida State JR LHP John Gast – 67%

***

Stanford SO LHP Brett Mooneyham – 66%

UCLA SO RHP Trevor Bauer – 43%

Vanderbilt SO RHP Jack Armstrong – 61%

2010 Draft-Eligible Pitching: Groundout Percentage

The week ahead is wide open, so let me know if there’s anything you’d like to see. I’m currently working on a couple of high school position rankings, more college stuff (mostly position lists by conference), an updated big board, and a brand spanking new mock draft. With so much half-finished content staring me in the face, I’m happy to put something on hold to do something new and exciting as a change of pace, so if there is anything new and exciting you want to see, please let me know and I’ll make it happen.

Because I hate posts that don’t have much to do with baseball, how about a little content? The title says it all, except for the brief and wondrous snippets of 2011 draft-eligible players included (both 2011s would be second on their lists, by the way). The data I have doesn’t include every pitcher in college baseball, but rather a sampling of some of the biggest names…I’m only one man, after all. Like last time, if you have a player you are curious about, let me know.

Highest Percentage of Groundball Outs

1) North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey

2) Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis

3) Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale

HM) 2011 draft-eligible Texas SO RHP Taylor Jungmann

Lowest Percentage of Groundball Outs

1) San Diego SR RHP AJ Griffin

2) San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair

3) LSU JR RHP Austin Ross

HM) Cal State Fullerton SO RHP Tyler Pill

College Team Profiles: LSU Tigers

One of the most popular (fine, the only) question I’ve been emailed since starting this site up goes a little something like this: I’m going to see ____ University/College/State play this weekend and I was wondering if there was anybody with a professional future that would be worth watching. The College Team Profiles are designed to preemptively answer any and all questions about the prospects from a particular college team…or maybe just open up a whole new debate full of new, even more confusing questions. We’ll see. The next three draft classes for one particular school are featured, with the players ranked in order (from greatest to least greatest) within each class.

As always, whether you agree, disagree, or think I’m a dope who should leave this sort of stuff to the experts (thanks, Mom)…let’s hear it via email (you can use either robozga at gmail dot com or thebaseballdraftreport at gmail dot com) or in the comments section.

Louisiana State Baseball - 2009 NCAA National Champs

Louisiana State Baseball2009 NCAA National Champs

2010

JR RHP Anthony Ranaudo (2010) has been likened to fellow Tiger Ben McDonald, but, while the similarity works in a lot of ways (both highly touted 6-7 Bayou Bengals), the comparison is more about shiny new toy syndrome and short memories than anything substantial. Ben McDonald was a phenomenal prospect coming out of school in 1989. Anthony Ranaudo is a very good prospect here in 2010. Big difference, although hardly an automatic strike against Ranaudo’s prospect stock. I guess all of this is self-evident (Ranaudo isn’t McDonald, what a revelation!), but I’ll be honest here – this whole paragraph was nothing more than a front for showing off one of my favorite SI covers of all time.

Makes me laugh every time. Anyway, everybody saw Ranaudo when he was at his relative worst, when he was completely worn down and exhibiting diminished velocity during the College World Series. His heater was sitting only in the upper-80s and the sharpness on his 12-6 curveball, the secondary offering generally considered his finest, was noticeably absent. I caught Ranaudo for the first time during the middle of conference play last season and came away impressed. His fastball was 91-93 MPH consistently, hitting as high as 94 at its peak. Many outlets regard his curve as a superior pitch to his change, but Ranaudo’s 82-84 MPH sinking changeup impressed as much as his high-70s curve, a pitch that flattened out too often and stayed consistently up in the zone.

In fact, that’s one of my biggest concerns about Ranaudo going forward. When he misses, he misses up. the one thing I’d love to see first addressed with Ranaudo as a professional is his tendency to leave balls up. Darn near everything he threw, especially his fastballs and curves, were left up. Ranaudo is 6-7, 220 pounds and should be able to us e his frame to his advantage when attempting to generate a more favorable downward plane on his pitches. In fact, don’t be shocked to hear many of the experts assume that the big righty gets that great downward movement and the ensuing groundball outs that come with it. It’s a fine theory and one that will be correct more often than not, but in this instance it’s wrong. My quick 2009 GO/AO ratio using the publicly available data for Ranaudo is 0.71. That number would be best compared against all pitchers that make up the college ball landscape, but, alas, we’re stuck making an assumption of our own in lieu of spending far too much time and energy ginning up all that data. The assumption here is that 0.71, a number that more or less says Ranaudo induced 100 air outs for every 71 groundball out, makes the big LSU righty a pretty clear flyball pitcher.

All of the “non-skill” stuff with Ranaudo grades out as excellent. He gets high praise for his competitive makeup, he is an above-average athlete who prides himself on staying in tremendous baseball shape, and the LSU coaching staff has widely acknowledged his receptiveness to learning as much as possible about what it takes to be a big game pitcher. He had a healthy sophomore year, but it is still possible questions linger in the minds of clubs worried about the two missed months his freshman year due to tendinitis in his right elbow. Another season of healthy, dominant baseball in the SEC should solidify his spot in the top ten.

Bottom line on Ranaudo’s aresenal heading into the 2010 season:

  • Fastball – good velocity, very good command, too straight at times
  • Changeup – good velocity separation, good sink, underutilized
  • Curveball – very good pitch when it is good, very hittable pitch when it isn’t, inconsistent velocity, shape, and command

JR OF Leon Landry (2010) had better be prepared for the onslaught of Jared Mitchell comps sure to be thrown his way this spring. The comparisons between the two football playing outfielders work in some ways (both players have plus speed and are ridiculous athletes, but each guy had a below-average arm), but fall apart in other areas, most notably in the power department. Landry has already shown as much present power through two seasons of collegiate development as Mitchell did through three. A more interesting crop of first round caliber talents in 2010 may push Landry’s draft position down past where Mitchell went in 2009 (23rd overall), but I’m willing to go on the record and say that his forthcoming monster junior season will catapult his overall prospect stock past his former two sport teammate’s. He’s a potential plus defender in center with good range but a below-average arm for the position.

JR OF Chad Jones (2010) is a problem for me. It is very easy for me to get in the habit of being too darn positive about these prospects because it is more fun to think about upside and ceilings and perfect world projections while ignoring the nasty reality that so many little things can go wrong to torpedo any given player’s prospect stock between now and June. I try my best to be mean, to find red flags about players I know I’m overrating based on upside. Chad Jones probably should be one of those red flag players because, logically at least, there has to be at least a couple tools duds sprinkled into this star packed LSU outfield. Mahtook, Landry, Watkins, Dishon, Dean, and Jones all can’t be serious big league prospects, can they? Watkins is the speed guy, Dean is the well-rounded senior masher, but Mahtook, Landry, Dishon, and Jones are all big-time projection guys cut from the same ultra-toolsy cloth. Of those four, Jones is probably the best athlete. To take it a step further, Jones may actually be the most unbelievable athlete of the entire 2010 college class. He has great size, speed, and strength with a definite plus arm and above-average power potential. I put him in the same class as Jake Locker last year, for better or worse. Each player has enormous untapped potential on the diamond (for better!) which, unfortunately for baseball fans, may forever go untapped due to the presence of football (for worse…). There are so many questions surrounding Jones heading into his baseball season that is quite difficult to even place a draft value on him. Does he even play baseball this year for LSU? If so, will he actually attempt to play while simultaneously prepping for the NFL Draft Combine and pre-draft workouts? If he sticks with baseball, is his future brighter in the field or on the mound? Does he put it all off and stick another year out at LSU just to make us ask all of these questions again a year from now? The word is that his first love is baseball, but there are undeniable advantages in taking a top three round NFL signing bonus while keeping the possibility of baseball in your back pocket just in case. It should be fun following Jones whichever path he chooses…assuming he makes the right choice and chooses baseball, of course. That’s a joke…mostly.

JR C Micah Gibbs (2010) is currently a potential late first round pick who, even with a subpar junior season, still ought to hear his name called in the first three rounds of the 2010 Draft. Offensively he is more solid than spectacular, though his plate discipline (career 69/76 BB/K ratio) is a skill worth getting somewhat excited about. Scouts have long pegged him as a player with big raw power, especially from the left side, but in two years at LSU he hasn’t been able to show off that batting practice thunder in game situations. Gibbs’ leadership is praised far and wide and his defense is beyond reproach, so expect Gibbs to get a ton of ink as one the chosen players MLB decides to “talk up” with positive press heading into the June draft.

JR RHP Austin Ross (2010) is the prototypical four-seamer/sinker/slider guy. He occasionally expands upon the repertoire by branching out with a show-me change, but otherwise remains true to his sinking 90-92 fastball and solid slider with plus potential. He has excellent command of all of his pitches, most notably the four-seamer and the sinker. In addition to solid present value stuff, Ross has excellent mechanics and room to grow on his lanky 6-2, 190 pound frame. I group college pitching prospects into a couple of different categories. Ross will likely go in with the rest of the “potential back of the rotation arms” because he has the makings of at least three big league average or better pitches.

SO OF Johnny Dishon (2010) is yet another legit well-rounded five-tool talent. He has above-average speed, a plus arm, plays a good enough centerfield (though he fits best in right professionally), and has a really promising hit tool. After redshirting last season, he finds himself draft-eligible in 2010, but, and I’m sure a pretty clear theme is developing here, he has plenty to prove this upcoming season. Dishon heads into the season as LSU’s fourth outfielder, a testament to this team’s crazy outfield depth. At this point I consider Dishon to be one of the most underrated prospects in college baseball. He still swings and misses too often, but his base running is top notch and the pop in his bat could grow into real power with more reps.

SR 1B/OF Blake Dean (2010) is being counted on to start the season as LSU’s primary first baseman even after getting beat up on the operating table (torn labrum and appendectomy) this past offseason. Reports on his defense at first have been extremely positive so far. I liked Dean as a prospect a lot last year, but with every extra year (and every subsequent injury) spent not developing his craft professionally it gets harder and harder to envision Dean ever holding down a starting job in the bigs. His good but not great future with the bat makes me wonder if his overall package is going to be able to carry him at a defensive position like first base that demands more than just a good bat. Getting back into the outfield at some point this season (even if only doing so pre-game for scouts on hand) would be a very, very good thing for Dean’s prospect stock. As is, he represents value as a potential money saving senior sign option (with upside, no less) between rounds five and ten.

JR RHP Daniel Bradshaw (2010) is probably the better comp to Louis Coleman on the roster, but with stuff that grades out lower across the board. Bradshaw sits 86-90 with the fastball and throws a couple of average at best offspeed pitches (curveball and changeup). His lack of dominating, or even above-average, stuff dim the shine of his pro prospects, but he’ll at least have the benefit of spending two more years at a hugely respected college program to build up his draft resume. As a senior sign in 2011, he could get a real look, but I don’t see him getting picked high enough in 2010 to leave school early. Then again, he could also put together a fine season as LSU’s Saturday starter in 2010 and have us all reconsidering his future come June.

SR OF/1B Matt Gaudet (2010) is a player that finally helps answer the question what would a baseball player with severe sfairesphobia look like out in the field. In other, non-bastardized Greek words, Gaudet is a bit of a butcher defensively. His raw power is impressive, but he has a lot to prove after sitting out the 2009 season and, unfortunately for him, not a lot of time to do it. He is currently slated to be LSU’s righthanded hitting half of their designated hitter platoon.

JR 1B Kyle Koeneman (2010) has been both a highly decorated prospect coming out of high school (2007) and a well regarded junior college power hitter (2008-2009) who was very surprisingly bypassed in all three of his draft years. He has massive playable power and is capable of playing the outfield corners if needed. At bats will be hard to come by for Koeneman, but it’ll be interesting to see how he adapts to a bench role as that will almost certainly be his role if he can hack it in pro ball.

JR RHP Ben Alsup (2010) is in line to fill the all-important role of swingman of this year’s LSU staff. His low-90s fastball, above-average athleticism, and projectable 6-3, 160 pound frame all remind me of another pitcher formerly in the program that often saved the bullpen with multiple inning outings, Louis Coleman.

JR C Edmond Sparks (2010) has a plus arm and is solid behind the plate, but right now his bat still lags behind his defense. His track record in junior college shows a player slowly beginning to tap into his gap power potential, but he still needs to show something on the big college baseball stage. He didn’t get nearly as many at bats in 2009 at Chipola as he did in 2008 (not sure why), but he figures to get some actual time as Gibbs’ backup in 2010.

JR SS Mike Lowery (2010) is out for the year as he recovers from back surgery.

2011

SO OF Mikie Mahtook (2011) projects to do just about everything well at the big league level. His tools all grade out as above-average or better, but the gap between where some of his skills currently are and where they ultimately need to be is substantial. Mahtook has made steady progress narrowing that gap since enrolling at LSU, but his performance this spring will be heavily scrutinized by scouts expecting big things out of the potential 2011 first rounder. Mahtook is a plus athlete with above-average raw power, above-average speed, a strong arm, and the potential to play an above-average centerfield as a professional.

SO OF Trey Watkins (2011) can run like the dickens. That’s fast. You know it’s fast because it prompted me to say something like he can run like the dickens. That’s not a phrase I’m willing to use publicly unless it was oh so true. Watkins’s plus-plus running ability allows him to cover huge chunks of ground in the field. His compact 5-8, 190 pound frame is very well proportioned with those explosive fast twitch muscles that make the eyes of scouts widen. I know this is a cop-out, but Watkins is a player you really need to watch play to understand. His upside could be Bobby Abreu with more speed and less home run power.  JR OF Tyler Holt (2010) of Florida State is the best current prospect comp (although Holt strikes out a lot more) I can come up with; Holt is draft-eligible this year, so it’ll be interesting to see if his draft standing works as a litmus test to Watkins’s 2011 draft stock.

SO RHP Shane Riedie (2011) is on tap to be LSU’s early mid-week starter this season. He’s a really big kid (6-5, 240) that was worked really hard in high school, but has serious potential as a hard throwing innings eater type if it all comes together. Riedie’s fastball currently sits in the high-80s, but he can dial it up to the low-90s (I’ve seen him at 94) on occasion. That velocity should jump with time, perhaps as soon as this upcoming season. There are already reports from the summer saying he was sitting more comfortably in the low-90s, a fantastic sign for his development. The increased emphasis on high level conditioning, refinement in his mechanics (seems like he has a bit of a hitch in his delivery and it looks like he drags his throwing arm across his body more than most scouts like, plus his lower leg kick isn’t as high as I personally like to   see) and more professional LSU throwing program (compared to what he did in high school) should continue to do wonders for his arm. Riedie’s best pitch is currently that high upside fastball, but his curve is already a solid second offering. His changeup is a work in progress, but the fact he has shown it in game situations (largely over the summer) is a good sign for its development. Riedie isn’t Anthony Ranaudo, but he isn’t so far off that the comparison is totally crazy.

SO RHP Matty Ott (2011) is exactly the kind of player that makes following the sport fun. He somehow pulls off always appearing both fiery and cool while on the mound, he gets big time results (69 K to 6 BB in 50.1 IP ) through unconventional means (his funky low ¾ delivery is only a hair or two from dropping officially down to sidearm), and he is by all accounts a wonderful example of what a student-athlete ought to be. His hard, sinking high-80s fastball works really well in concert with a high-70s big league ready slider that makes life miserable for both lefties and righties alike. Ott’s prospect stock is in limbo because he doesn’t fit any kind of traditional baseball archetype. He hasn’t currently shown the stuff needed to start (although I’ll happily go on record in saying I think he’d blossom if given the opportunity to refine a third pitch), and he doesn’t have the knockout fastball that so many teams require out of their late inning aces. Maybe it is a personal blind spot of mine, but, archetypes be damned, I like players like Ott that get just get guys out. He has two big league pitches at present (fastball is a little short, but the movement bumps it up a grade) and has time to polish up a third offering. He won’t be a first rounder, heck he may not even be a candidate to go in the top 150 or so picks, but he could wind up his college career as a high floor, close to the majors kind of prospect. If you read this thing regularly you know I value upside and star potential very highly, but in a world that Brandon Lyon can get a $15 million contract, you’d better believe there is value in locking in a player like Ott for six cost-controlled big league years.

RS FR 3B Wet Delatte (2011) is…wait…his name is Wet? I mean, sure, his real name is William, but he willingly goes by the name Wet. I have a pretty simple rule on this site: any player named Wet moves up 50 spots on the big board automatically. Wet is already a decent defender at third and a gifted natural hitter. He’ll get his chance as LSU’s staring third baseman heading into the spring.

SO 2B Tyler Hanover (2011) is actually a very similar player to his double play partner Austin Nola. Hanover has more pop than his 5-6, 163 pound frame suggests, but like Nola, he is a very good defender at his position. He is also capable of playing third base and is expected to be first in line at shortstop if anything happens to Nola. The natural comparison is to fellow tiny infielder David Eckstein, but the numbers don’t back it up. As of now, Hanover is a fairly unique player who could see his career go in any number of ways before his draft year comes up.

RS FR INF Beau Didier (2011) was drafted in the 40th round in 2008. Pittsburgh sure seems to have a thing for high school recruits committed to LSU, huh? Didier is the one who got away from the Pirates back in 2008, a loss that could sting over time. Didier has above-average power potential, but his recovery from Tommy John surgery has pushed the timetable back on the development of many of his skills. As a prep player Didier was known for having a laser rocket arm. It’ll be interesting to see if his recovery from the surgery was successful enough to allow him to throw like he once did. He is slated to start 2010 as one half of LSU’s designated hitter platoon, but is also capable of playing third and second. There are also quiet rumblings that many on staff think he would work best behind the plate. I think I’d like to see that as it would be a hoot to see LSU attempt to be the first team to attempt to field the first ever all catcher starting eight. I’m personally very curious to see how Didier responds defensively at the hot corner because people I’ve talked to have me believing he has enough range and good enough hands to stick at shortstop if given the chance. Didier isn’t draft eligible until 2011, but anytime a player has a family member with a scouting background its fun to begin to try to connect the dots. Those familial ties bind him to the Texas Rangers, so store that player to team link in your brain and we can revisit it about two years from now.

SO SS Austin Nola (2011) gained notoriety during LSU’s championship run last season as a damn fine defender with an above-average arm. He showed just barely enough with the bat (.240/.350/.364 as a freshman in the SEC isn’t awful) to make him an interesting all-around prospect to watch going forward, rather than just another all glove, small bat player. Even if he doesn’t progress at the plate, he could still have himself a pro career. As the market for good defense continues to grow, players like Nola will likely see their draft stock get a boost. I also can’t be the only one who likes having a player on the premier baseball university in Louisiana with the last name “Nola,” right? I know LSU is in Baton Rouge and not New Orleans, but it still feels right.

SO INF Grant Dozar (2011) impressed those who saw him practice with the team last season, but didn’t get enough at bats in 2009 to make any conclusions about what kind of player he’ll be on the college level. As of now, he is expected to see time at both first and third. If he can earn some playing time behind the plate, as some have speculated he might, the added versatility would give this under the radar prospect a chance to get a little recognition.

2012

FR LHP Forrest Garrett (2012) was written up as a late round 2009 draft sleeper back in June, something I had forgotten all about until doing some of my very scientific research (Google) on Garrett. I won’t quote myself, but I will sum up my thoughts on Garrett here: gigantic sleeper with early round potential in 2012 because of great physical projection, high-80s to low-90s fastball with room to grow, present above-above changeup that should be plus pitch in time, above-average potential with curve, and solid command already.

FR C Wes Luquette (2012) put up titanic numbers as a prep quarterback for the Manning brothers’ alma mater Newman HS in New Orleans, but comes to LSU as a backup catcher with the inside track on succeeding Micah Gibbs. His strong commitment to LSU coupled with pesky reconstructive elbow surgery back in February dropped him to the Pirates in the 27th round in 2009, but he could see his stock shoot way up by 2012, especially if he establishes himself as worthy of a starting spot by 2011. It’ll be an uphill climb for Luquette due to the ever-increasing likelihood of him sitting out the season to recovery from Tommy John surgery, but he is still in good shape of becoming a two year starter at LSU.

FR C/INF/OF Mason Katz (2012) has some serious thunder in his bat for a smaller player. I’ve heard the coaches are excited about his ability to play multiple spots around the diamond, a big plus for a college team short on scholarships. However, I’ve also been told that his best position may eventually be “batter’s box.” I can’t honestly say whether that’s high praise for what his bat may become or an indictment of his handiwork with the leather.